Here Comes Stagflation: Goldman Slashes GDP Estimate For Second Time In 3 Weeks, Sees "Bigger Inflation Surge"_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

Here Comes Stagflation: Goldman Slashes GDP Estimate For Second Time In 3 Weeks, Sees "Bigger Inflation Surge"

zerohedge2021-08-19

It was good while it lasted, but the party is well and truly ending. Just three weeks ago, Goldman Sachs - which last year was the first bank to unveil materially above consensus GDP projections - cut...

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seanfoo83
·2021-08-19
Here’s a good article that summarises what to look out for in terms of market moving events that can trigger a stagflation selldown!https://blog.algomerchant.com/my-market-circulation-of-a-peak-everything-narrative/
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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere Comes Stagflation: Goldman Slashes GDP Estimate For Second Time In 3 Weeks, Sees \"Bigger Inflation Surge\"\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-19 14:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-comes-stagflation-goldman-slashes-gdp-estimate-second-time-3-weeks-sees-bigger>zerohedge</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nIt was good while it lasted, but the party is well and truly ending.\nJust three weeks ago, Goldman Sachs - which last year was the first bank to unveil materially above consensus GDP projections - cut...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-comes-stagflation-goldman-slashes-gdp-estimate-second-time-3-weeks-sees-bigger\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".IXIC","symbol_name":"NASDAQ Composite","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-comes-stagflation-goldman-slashes-gdp-estimate-second-time-3-weeks-sees-bigger","article_id":"1161694085","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161694085","pubTimestamp":1629355541,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"It was good while it lasted, but the party is well and truly ending.\nJust three weeks ago, Goldman S","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"zerohedge.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"translate_title":"滞胀来了：高盛在3周内第二次下调GDP预期，认为“更大的通胀飙升”","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"It was good while it lasted, but the party is well and truly ending.\nJust three weeks ago, Goldman Sachs - which last year was the first bank to unveil materially above consensus GDP projections - cut its 2021 second half consumption growth forecast, resulting in 1% downgrade to its GDP growth forecasts for Q3 and Q4 to +8.5% and +5.0%, respectively, \"as it is becoming apparent that the service sector recovery in the US is unlikely to be as robust\" as the bank had expected. Which is odd considering the trillions in monetary and fiscal stimulus that have entered into the economy. One wonder how many more trillions would be needed for Goldman to be happy.\nBut while Goldman's expected 2021 slowdown was manageable,it got far worse in 2022, when the sluggishness is expected to truly hammer the growth rate, which Goldman now expected to shrink to a trend-like 1.5% - 2% by the second half of 2022, a far \"sharper deceleration than consensus expects.\"\nIn retrospect, the bad news was just starting.\nAs frequent readers recall, just yesterday we pointed out that US economic growth \"suddenly collapsed\" as the latest dismal retail sales print showed, validating the latest BofA Fund Manager Survey which saw a collapse in expectations for everything from growth, to profits and inflation.\nIn response, Bank of America's chief economist Michelle Meyer wrotes that \"after adjusting for higher prices (PCE deflator of 4.4% qoq saar), the softening in nominal spendingleads us to track only 1.5% qoq saar for real consumer spending in 3Q. This follows 2Q real consumption tracking of 12.3%.\" Plugging that number into the bigger GDP model, and BofA now finds that \"the economy is running at a slower pace in 3Q,\" andcurrently tracking just 4.5% following the retail sales report,down from the bank's official forecast of 7% qoq saa, which is about to come down significantly.\nJust hours later, Goldman strategist Chris Hussey chimed in with a preview of what was coming writing that \"the combination of lower-than-expected retail sales and auto production in July, and given an increasingly likely drag on services consumption from the Delta variant, our economists are will likely revise our second-half growth assumptions even as we still do not expect material economic impact from the Delta variant in the US amidst abundant vaccine supply and relatively permissive COVID policies.\"\nWell, he was right, and moments ago - for the second time in under a month -Goldman has slashed its Q3 GDP forecast to just 5.5% from 8.5% as of late July (and 9.5% previously),as Goldman's chief economist now warns that \"the impact of the Delta variant on growth and inflation is proving to be somewhat larger than we expected.\"\n\n We have lowered our Q3 GDP forecast to +5.5%, reflecting hits to both consumer spending and production. Spending on dining, travel, and some other services is likely to decline in August, though we expect the drop to be modest and brief. Production is still suffering from supply chain disruptions, especially in the auto industry, and this is likely to mean less inventory rebuild in Q3.\n\nThe bank's revised forecast also trims its full year 2021 GDP forecast to below consensus 6% (vs. 6.4% previously and 6.2% consensus) and leads to 2022 growth of 4.5%, a number which at this rate will soon be slashed to 0 or negative.\nHere are some more details from Goldman behind the sharp cut to GDP, which it blames on - what else - the convenient Delta variant, and not t - say - that US consumers were once again tapped out, and with no more stimmy cash and savings all spent, was instead borrowingliterallyrecordamounts on their credit cards.\nAnyway, here is how Goldman feeds the \"but Delta\" fiction:\nThe Delta variant is weighing on both consumer spending and production in Q3.\n\n On the consumption side, we cut our 2021H2 forecast slightly last month, anticipating that renewed virus spread would delay a full recovery of the office-adjacent economy and the most virus-sensitive services, such as entertainment events. But the decline in retail sales in July and the drop-off in our consumer spending tracker through early August, shown in Exhibit 1, suggest a larger slowdown in spending than we expected.\n\nForward-looking indicators also point to a further pullback in services spending. OpenTable data show a roughly 7% decline in restaurant reservations since the end of July, travel companies report an increase in cancellations and a modest decline in bookings, and press reports note that some hospitals are again delaying elective surgeries to clear capacity for Covid patients.\nGoldman also decided to blame supply-chain bottlenecks - the same bottlenecks that were patently obvious last month yet when countless penguins, like Goldman, expected them to be \"transitory.\" Well, they aren't looking so transitory now, eh?\n\n\nOn the production side, the Delta variant is prolonging supply chain disruptions and delaying a full rebound of factory activity. Production holdups in Q2 led to a larger-than-expected inventory drawdown and widening of the trade deficit as US producers struggled to meet strong consumer demand. This accounted for much of the eventual disappointment on Q2 GDP growth, but a rebound in production and the rebuild of depleted inventories—especially at automakers—appeared likely to boost Q3 growth.\nUnfortunately, that expectation has proven premature. Earlier this month we highlighted the risk of global supply chain spillovers from the impact of the Delta variant in the Asia Pacific region, where new Covid restrictions are much more stringent than in the US. Since then more setbacks have emerged, including problems for semiconductor producers in Malaysia and a major port closure in China.\nOur autos analysts note that automakers now expect that the disruption from the semiconductor supply shortage to global auto production will be nearly as large in Q3 as in Q2 and that supply will not increase until late Q3 or Q4. As Exhibit 2 shows, initial US auto production schedules for Q3 have proven much too optimistic.We have therefore cut our Q3 inventory accumulation forecast from $82bn to $32bn, though the turnaround from the sharp inventory drawdown in Q2 is still worth 4pp for Q3 GDP growth.\n\nIf that was the extent of it, we would probably not even bother with this note: after all it's just another example of Goldman just being wrong and failing to actually observe what is going on in the economy (something we described in detail in \"\"A Sudden Negative Change In The Economy\": Consumer Spending Slides As Majority Now Expect A New Slowdown\").\nBut sadly it gets worse. So much so that Goldman's note is not so much about the bank's latest me culpa on its GDP forecast (it will be slashed many more times in the coming months, that much we can guarantee) but that it was the first overt admission from Goldman that the US is heading for stagflation, because while Goldman is busy cutting its GDP forecast, it was also hiking its surging inflation forecast... and to those who don't know what stagflation is, now is a good time to look it up. Here again is Kostin:\nA Bigger Inflation Surge in 2021:The impact of the Delta variant on supply chains is also likely to push prices even higher in the short run on some of the durable goods categories that have contributed to the inflation surge this year.\n\n The left side of Exhibit 4 shows that, as a result of ongoing auto production problems, new car inventories are likely to fall to around 1 million, down more than 70% from pre-pandemic levels. This has led to much larger increases in new car prices in recent months than seen in many years. Our auto sector analysts expect further price increases over the next few months and then a partial return of promotional pricing at year-end as production normalizes, and we have revised our forecast accordingly.\n\nOther durable goods that are downstream from the semiconductor shortage—such as consumer electronics and household appliances, shown in Exhibit 5—have also seen much higher than usual inflation this year, reflecting both supply constraints and strong demand. Our sector analysts expect that many consumer electronics companies will announce price increases in the upcoming earnings season and that most major household appliance producers will also raise prices significantly further this year. We have therefore bumped up our forecasts for these categories too.\nBut while one can, in theory, get away without spending on appliances, cars and video products, one has to eat. And sadly here the inflation is about to surge even higher.\n\nWe also raised our short-term expectations for food services inflation.In June we noted that higher wage growth for low-paid workers should flow through to higher consumer prices in sectors such as restaurants that rely heavily on low-paid labor.\n That has happened to an even greater extent than we anticipated in the last two CPI prints, and there is probably still a couple months of upward pressure left in the pipeline before the end of federal unemployment benefits cools wage and price pressures.\n\nThe punchline: \"We now expect year-on-year core PCE inflation to reach 3.75% at the end of 2021.\"\nSo putting it all together:a drop in GDP + \"a bigger surge in inflation\" = stagflation.We said as much in May \"This Is All About Stagflation... The U.S. Is Walking Into The Early Stages Of The Fourth Turning\" and we are surprised it only took Goldman 3 months to catch up.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":838098509,"gmtCreate":1629356483101,"gmtModify":1633685444980,"author":{"id":"3581990975957849","authorId":"3581990975957849","name":"seanfoo83","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afce65f198b2276ef805609276bf14ab","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581990975957849","authorIdStr":"3581990975957849"},"htmlText":"Here’s a good article that summarises what to look out for in terms of market moving events that can trigger a stagflation selldown!https://blog.algomerchant.com/my-market-circulation-of-a-peak-everything-narrative/","listText":"Here’s a good article that summarises what to look out for in terms of market moving events that can trigger a stagflation selldown!https://blog.algomerchant.com/my-market-circulation-of-a-peak-everything-narrative/","text":"Here’s a good article that summarises what to look out for in terms of market moving events that can trigger a stagflation selldown!https://blog.algomerchant.com/my-market-circulation-of-a-peak-everything-narrative/","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/838098509","repostId":1161694085,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161694085","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629355541,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161694085?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-19 14:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here Comes Stagflation: Goldman Slashes GDP Estimate For Second Time In 3 Weeks, Sees \"Bigger Inflation Surge\"<blockquote>滞胀来了：高盛三周内第二次下调GDP预期，认为“通胀飙升幅度更大”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161694085","media":"zerohedge","summary":"It was good while it lasted, but the party is well and truly ending.\nJust three weeks ago, Goldman S","content":"It was good while it lasted, but the party is well and truly ending.<blockquote>它持续的时候很好，但是派对已经结束了。</blockquote> Just three weeks ago, Goldman Sachs - which last year was the first bank to unveil materially above consensus GDP projections - cut its 2021 second half consumption growth forecast, resulting in 1% downgrade to its GDP growth forecasts for Q3 and Q4 to +8.5% and +5.0%, respectively, \"as it is becoming apparent that the service sector recovery in the US is unlikely to be as robust\" as the bank had expected. Which is odd considering the trillions in monetary and fiscal stimulus that have entered into the economy. One wonder how many more trillions would be needed for Goldman to be happy.<blockquote>就在三周前，高盛（Goldman Sachs）——去年是第一家公布大幅高于普遍预期GDP预测的银行——下调了2021年下半年消费增长预测，导致第三季度和第四季度GDP增长预测下调1%至+8.5%和+5.0%，“因为越来越明显的是，美国服务业的复苏不太可能像该行预期的那样强劲”。考虑到数万亿美元的货币和财政刺激已经进入经济，这很奇怪。人们不禁要问，高盛还需要多少万亿美元才能幸福。</blockquote> But while Goldman's expected 2021 slowdown was manageable,it got far worse in 2022, when the sluggishness is expected to truly hammer the growth rate, which Goldman now expected to shrink to a trend-like 1.5% - 2% by the second half of 2022, a far \"sharper deceleration than consensus expects.\"<blockquote>但尽管高盛预计2021年经济放缓是可控的，2022年情况变得更糟，预计经济低迷将真正打击增长率，高盛目前预计，到2022年下半年，增长率将萎缩至趋势性的1.5%-2%，“减速幅度远高于市场普遍预期”。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e05ecd5001da54cf0ba72fe0dfd3d65b\" tg-width=\"681\" tg-height=\"456\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">In retrospect, the bad news was just starting.<blockquote>回想起来，坏消息才刚刚开始。</blockquote> As frequent readers recall, just yesterday we pointed out that US economic growth \"suddenly collapsed\" as the latest dismal retail sales print showed, validating the latest BofA Fund Manager Survey which saw a collapse in expectations for everything from growth, to profits and inflation.<blockquote>正如经常阅读的读者回忆的那样，就在昨天，我们指出，正如最新惨淡的零售销售数据所显示的那样，美国经济增长“突然崩溃”，这证实了美国银行基金经理的最新调查，该调查显示，从增长到利润和通胀的所有预期都崩溃了。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad0535f1d343fd85a5852ce78ffe00ef\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"486\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">In response, Bank of America's chief economist Michelle Meyer wrotes that \"after adjusting for higher prices (PCE deflator of 4.4% qoq saar), the softening in nominal spendingleads us to track only 1.5% qoq saar for real consumer spending in 3Q. This follows 2Q real consumption tracking of 12.3%.\" Plugging that number into the bigger GDP model, and BofA now finds that \"the economy is running at a slower pace in 3Q,\" andcurrently tracking just 4.5% following the retail sales report,down from the bank's official forecast of 7% qoq saa, which is about to come down significantly.<blockquote>对此，美国银行首席经济学家Michelle Meyer写道，“在对价格上涨（PCE平减指数环比为4.4%）进行调整后，名义支出的疲软导致我们跟踪第三季度实际消费者支出的saar环比仅为1.5%。此前，第二季度实际消费跟踪为12.3%。“将这个数字插入更大的GDP模型，美国银行现在发现“第三季度经济运行速度放缓”，并且目前零售销售报告发布后仅追踪4.5%，低于该行官方预测的环比SAA 7%，该预测即将大幅下降。</blockquote> Just hours later, Goldman strategist Chris Hussey chimed in with a preview of what was coming writing that \"the combination of lower-than-expected retail sales and auto production in July, and given an increasingly likely drag on services consumption from the Delta variant, our economists are will likely revise our second-half growth assumptions even as we still do not expect material economic impact from the Delta variant in the US amidst abundant vaccine supply and relatively permissive COVID policies.\"<blockquote>仅仅几个小时后，高盛策略师Chris Hussey就对即将发生的事情进行了预览，他写道，“7月份零售额和汽车产量低于预期，考虑到德尔塔变异毒株对服务消费的拖累越来越大，我们的经济学家可能会修改我们对下半年增长的假设，尽管在疫苗供应充足和新冠政策相对宽松的情况下，我们仍然预计美国德尔塔变异毒株不会对经济产生重大影响。”</blockquote> Well, he was right, and moments ago - for the second time in under a month -Goldman has slashed its Q3 GDP forecast to just 5.5% from 8.5% as of late July (and 9.5% previously),as Goldman's chief economist now warns that \"the impact of the Delta variant on growth and inflation is proving to be somewhat larger than we expected.\"<blockquote>嗯，他是对的，就在刚才——不到一个月内第二次——高盛已将第三季度GDP预测从7月底的8.5%（此前为9.5%）下调至仅5.5%，正如高盛首席经济学家现在警告的那样，“事实证明，德尔塔变异毒株对增长和通胀的影响比我们预期的要大一些。”</blockquote> We have lowered our Q3 GDP forecast to +5.5%, reflecting hits to both consumer spending and production. Spending on dining, travel, and some other services is likely to decline in August, though we expect the drop to be modest and brief. Production is still suffering from supply chain disruptions, especially in the auto industry, and this is likely to mean less inventory rebuild in Q3. The bank's revised forecast also trims its full year 2021 GDP forecast to below consensus 6% (vs. 6.4% previously and 6.2% consensus) and leads to 2022 growth of 4.5%, a number which at this rate will soon be slashed to 0 or negative.<blockquote>我们已将第三季度GDP预测下调至+5.5%，反映出消费者支出和生产受到的打击。八月份餐饮、旅游和其他一些服务支出可能会下降，尽管我们预计下降幅度不大且短暂。生产仍然受到供应链中断的影响，尤其是在汽车行业，这可能意味着第三季度的库存重建减少。央行修订后的预测还将2021年全年GDP预测下调至6%以下（此前为6.4%，市场普遍预期为6.2%），并导致2022年增长4.5%，按照这个速度，这一数字很快将被削减至0或负数。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cac3d7e08c01e3117276cba4e98c1719\" tg-width=\"826\" tg-height=\"487\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Here are some more details from Goldman behind the sharp cut to GDP, which it blames on - what else - the convenient Delta variant, and not t - say - that US consumers were once again tapped out, and with no more stimmy cash and savings all spent, was instead borrowingliterallyrecordamounts on their credit cards.<blockquote>以下是高盛在GDP大幅削减背后提供的更多细节，它将其归咎于——还有什么——便利的德尔塔变异毒株，而不是t-说——美国消费者再次被耗尽，并且不再有刺激的现金和储蓄全部花掉，而是字面上的借贷记录他们信用卡上的金额。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d88ea371481a13ae37ab8a93ba87bfc\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Anyway, here is how Goldman feeds the \"but Delta\" fiction:<blockquote>无论如何，高盛是如何助长“但是三角洲”的虚构的：</blockquote> The Delta variant is weighing on both consumer spending and production in Q3.<blockquote>德尔塔变异毒株给第三季度的消费者支出和生产带来压力。</blockquote> On the consumption side, we cut our 2021H2 forecast slightly last month, anticipating that renewed virus spread would delay a full recovery of the office-adjacent economy and the most virus-sensitive services, such as entertainment events. But the decline in retail sales in July and the drop-off in our consumer spending tracker through early August, shown in Exhibit 1, suggest a larger slowdown in spending than we expected. <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2130c6999cfd9d7ab6962e752ee316f\" tg-width=\"827\" tg-height=\"530\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Forward-looking indicators also point to a further pullback in services spending. OpenTable data show a roughly 7% decline in restaurant reservations since the end of July, travel companies report an increase in cancellations and a modest decline in bookings, and press reports note that some hospitals are again delaying elective surgeries to clear capacity for Covid patients.<blockquote>在消费方面，我们上个月小幅下调了2021年下半年的预测，预计病毒的重新传播将推迟办公室附近经济和对病毒最敏感的服务（例如娱乐活动）的全面复苏。但如图表1所示，7月份零售额的下降以及截至8月初消费者支出跟踪数据的下降表明支出放缓幅度超出了我们的预期。前瞻性指标还表明服务支出将进一步回落。OpenTable数据显示，自7月底以来，餐厅预订量下降了约7%，旅游公司报告取消预订量增加，预订量略有下降，新闻报道指出，一些医院再次推迟择期手术，以清理新冠患者的容量。</blockquote> Goldman also decided to blame supply-chain bottlenecks - the same bottlenecks that were patently obvious last month yet when countless penguins, like Goldman, expected them to be \"transitory.\" Well, they aren't looking so transitory now, eh?<blockquote>高盛还决定将责任归咎于供应链瓶颈——同样的瓶颈在上个月显而易见，当时无数像高盛一样的企鹅预计它们只是“暂时的”。嗯，他们现在看起来不那么短暂了，嗯？</blockquote> <ul> <li></li> <li>On the production side, the Delta variant is prolonging supply chain disruptions and delaying a full rebound of factory activity. Production holdups in Q2 led to a larger-than-expected inventory drawdown and widening of the trade deficit as US producers struggled to meet strong consumer demand. This accounted for much of the eventual disappointment on Q2 GDP growth, but a rebound in production and the rebuild of depleted inventories—especially at automakers—appeared likely to boost Q3 growth.</li> <li>Unfortunately, that expectation has proven premature. Earlier this month we highlighted the risk of global supply chain spillovers from the impact of the Delta variant in the Asia Pacific region, where new Covid restrictions are much more stringent than in the US. Since then more setbacks have emerged, including problems for semiconductor producers in Malaysia and a major port closure in China.</li> <li>Our autos analysts note that automakers now expect that the disruption from the semiconductor supply shortage to global auto production will be nearly as large in Q3 as in Q2 and that supply will not increase until late Q3 or Q4. As Exhibit 2 shows, initial US auto production schedules for Q3 have proven much too optimistic.We have therefore cut our Q3 inventory accumulation forecast from $82bn to $32bn, though the turnaround from the sharp inventory drawdown in Q2 is still worth 4pp for Q3 GDP growth.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/839e8bf2da50d0349da9d5254542ec1d\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"532\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">If that was the extent of it, we would probably not even bother with this note: after all it's just another example of Goldman just being wrong and failing to actually observe what is going on in the economy (something we described in detail in \"\"A Sudden Negative Change In The Economy\": Consumer Spending Slides As Majority Now Expect A New Slowdown\").<blockquote><ul><li></li><li>在生产方面，德尔塔变异毒株正在延长供应链中断，并推迟工厂活动的全面反弹。由于美国生产商难以满足强劲的消费者需求，第二季度生产停滞导致库存减少幅度超出预期，贸易逆差扩大。这在很大程度上解释了第二季度GDP增长最终令人失望的原因，但生产反弹和耗尽库存的重建（尤其是汽车制造商）似乎可能会提振第三季度的增长。</li><li>不幸的是，事实证明这种期望为时过早本月早些时候，我们强调了亚太地区德尔塔变异毒株影响对全球供应链溢出的风险，该地区新的Covid限制比美国严格得多。自那以来，出现了更多挫折，包括马来西亚半导体生产商的问题和中国主要港口的关闭。</li><li>我们的汽车分析师指出，汽车制造商现在预计，半导体供应短缺对全球汽车生产的干扰在第三季度几乎与第二季度一样大，而且供应要到第三季度末或第四季度才会增加。如图表2所示，事实证明，美国第三季度最初的汽车生产计划过于乐观。因此，我们将第三季度库存积累预测从820亿美元下调至320亿美元，尽管第二季度库存大幅减少的好转仍对第三季度GDP增长产生4个百分点的影响。</li></ul>如果是这样的话，我们可能甚至不会为这篇文章费心：毕竟，这只是高盛错误的另一个例子，未能实际观察经济中正在发生的事情（我们在“经济的突然负面变化：消费者支出下滑，因为大多数人现在预计会出现新的放缓”）。</blockquote> But sadly it gets worse. So much so that Goldman's note is not so much about the bank's latest me culpa on its GDP forecast (it will be slashed many more times in the coming months, that much we can guarantee) but that it was the first overt admission from Goldman that the US is heading for stagflation, because while Goldman is busy cutting its GDP forecast, it was also hiking its surging inflation forecast... and to those who don't know what stagflation is, now is a good time to look it up. Here again is Kostin:<blockquote>但可悲的是，情况变得更糟了。以至于高盛的报告与其说是关于该行对其GDP预测的最新指责（我们可以保证，未来几个月将会下调更多次），不如说是高盛首次公开承认美国正在走向滞胀，因为在高盛忙于下调GDP预测的同时，它也上调了飙升的通胀预测...对于那些不知道滞胀是什么的人来说，现在是查找滞胀的好时机。科斯汀又来了：</blockquote> A Bigger Inflation Surge in 2021:The impact of the Delta variant on supply chains is also likely to push prices even higher in the short run on some of the durable goods categories that have contributed to the inflation surge this year.<blockquote>2021年通胀将大幅飙升：德尔塔变异毒株对供应链的影响也可能在短期内推高一些导致今年通胀飙升的耐用品类别的价格。</blockquote> The left side of Exhibit 4 shows that, as a result of ongoing auto production problems, new car inventories are likely to fall to around 1 million, down more than 70% from pre-pandemic levels. This has led to much larger increases in new car prices in recent months than seen in many years. Our auto sector analysts expect further price increases over the next few months and then a partial return of promotional pricing at year-end as production normalizes, and we have revised our forecast accordingly. <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b227704093b648b57adb0db20a0e245\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"480\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Other durable goods that are downstream from the semiconductor shortage—such as consumer electronics and household appliances, shown in Exhibit 5—have also seen much higher than usual inflation this year, reflecting both supply constraints and strong demand. Our sector analysts expect that many consumer electronics companies will announce price increases in the upcoming earnings season and that most major household appliance producers will also raise prices significantly further this year. We have therefore bumped up our forecasts for these categories too.<blockquote>图表4的左侧显示，由于持续的汽车生产问题，新车库存可能会降至100万辆左右，比大流行前的水平下降70%以上。这导致近几个月新车价格涨幅比多年来大得多。我们的汽车行业分析师预计，未来几个月价格将进一步上涨，然后随着生产正常化，促销定价将在年底部分回归，我们相应地修改了预测。半导体短缺下游的其他耐用品——如图表5所示的消费电子产品和家用电器——今年的通胀率也远高于往常，反映出供应限制和需求强劲。我们的行业分析师预计，许多消费电子公司将在即将到来的财报季宣布提价，大多数主要家用电器生产商今年也将进一步大幅提价。因此，我们也提高了对这些类别的预测。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e8455e62dd9048e1cb663f20fbb4bde\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"527\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">But while one can, in theory, get away without spending on appliances, cars and video products, one has to eat. And sadly here the inflation is about to surge even higher.<blockquote>但是，虽然理论上一个人可以不花钱购买电器、汽车和视频产品，但他必须吃饭。可悲的是，这里的通货膨胀率将会飙升得更高。</blockquote> We also raised our short-term expectations for food services inflation.In June we noted that higher wage growth for low-paid workers should flow through to higher consumer prices in sectors such as restaurants that rely heavily on low-paid labor. That has happened to an even greater extent than we anticipated in the last two CPI prints, and there is probably still a couple months of upward pressure left in the pipeline before the end of federal unemployment benefits cools wage and price pressures. The punchline: \"We now expect year-on-year core PCE inflation to reach 3.75% at the end of 2021.\"<blockquote>我们还上调了对食品服务通胀的短期预期。6月份，我们指出，低薪工人工资的更高增长应该会导致餐馆等严重依赖低薪劳动力的行业的消费者价格上涨。这种情况的发生程度比我们在过去两次CPI数据中预期的还要大，在联邦失业救济金的结束冷却工资和价格压力之前，可能还有几个月的上行压力。笑点：“我们现在预计2021年底核心PCE同比通胀率将达到3.75%。\"</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2d5d6cea47a0e228a697ec6728db413\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"776\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">So putting it all together:a drop in GDP + \"a bigger surge in inflation\" = stagflation.We said as much in May \"This Is All About Stagflation... The U.S. Is Walking Into The Early Stages Of The Fourth Turning\" and we are surprised it only took Goldman 3 months to catch up.<blockquote>所以把所有这些放在一起：GDP下降+“通胀更大飙升”=滞胀。我们在5月份也说过“这一切都与滞胀有关……美国正在进入第四次转折的早期阶段”，我们很惊讶高盛只用了3个月就赶上了。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here Comes Stagflation: Goldman Slashes GDP Estimate For Second Time In 3 Weeks, Sees \"Bigger Inflation Surge\"<blockquote>滞胀来了：高盛三周内第二次下调GDP预期，认为“通胀飙升幅度更大”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere Comes Stagflation: Goldman Slashes GDP Estimate For Second Time In 3 Weeks, Sees \"Bigger Inflation Surge\"<blockquote>滞胀来了：高盛三周内第二次下调GDP预期，认为“通胀飙升幅度更大”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-08-19 14:45\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nIt was good while it lasted, but the party is well and truly ending.<blockquote>它持续的时候很好，但是派对已经结束了。</blockquote> Just three weeks ago, Goldman Sachs - which last year was the first bank to unveil materially above consensus GDP projections - cut its 2021 second half consumption growth forecast, resulting in 1% downgrade to its GDP growth forecasts for Q3 and Q4 to +8.5% and +5.0%, respectively, \"as it is becoming apparent that the service sector recovery in the US is unlikely to be as robust\" as the bank had expected. Which is odd considering the trillions in monetary and fiscal stimulus that have entered into the economy. One wonder how many more trillions would be needed for Goldman to be happy.<blockquote>就在三周前，高盛（Goldman Sachs）——去年是第一家公布大幅高于普遍预期GDP预测的银行——下调了2021年下半年消费增长预测，导致第三季度和第四季度GDP增长预测下调1%至+8.5%和+5.0%，“因为越来越明显的是，美国服务业的复苏不太可能像该行预期的那样强劲”。考虑到数万亿美元的货币和财政刺激已经进入经济，这很奇怪。人们不禁要问，高盛还需要多少万亿美元才能幸福。</blockquote> But while Goldman's expected 2021 slowdown was manageable,it got far worse in 2022, when the sluggishness is expected to truly hammer the growth rate, which Goldman now expected to shrink to a trend-like 1.5% - 2% by the second half of 2022, a far \"sharper deceleration than consensus expects.\"<blockquote>但尽管高盛预计2021年经济放缓是可控的，2022年情况变得更糟，预计经济低迷将真正打击增长率，高盛目前预计，到2022年下半年，增长率将萎缩至趋势性的1.5%-2%，“减速幅度远高于市场普遍预期”。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e05ecd5001da54cf0ba72fe0dfd3d65b\" tg-width=\"681\" tg-height=\"456\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">In retrospect, the bad news was just starting.<blockquote>回想起来，坏消息才刚刚开始。</blockquote> As frequent readers recall, just yesterday we pointed out that US economic growth \"suddenly collapsed\" as the latest dismal retail sales print showed, validating the latest BofA Fund Manager Survey which saw a collapse in expectations for everything from growth, to profits and inflation.<blockquote>正如经常阅读的读者回忆的那样，就在昨天，我们指出，正如最新惨淡的零售销售数据所显示的那样，美国经济增长“突然崩溃”，这证实了美国银行基金经理的最新调查，该调查显示，从增长到利润和通胀的所有预期都崩溃了。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad0535f1d343fd85a5852ce78ffe00ef\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"486\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">In response, Bank of America's chief economist Michelle Meyer wrotes that \"after adjusting for higher prices (PCE deflator of 4.4% qoq saar), the softening in nominal spendingleads us to track only 1.5% qoq saar for real consumer spending in 3Q. This follows 2Q real consumption tracking of 12.3%.\" Plugging that number into the bigger GDP model, and BofA now finds that \"the economy is running at a slower pace in 3Q,\" andcurrently tracking just 4.5% following the retail sales report,down from the bank's official forecast of 7% qoq saa, which is about to come down significantly.<blockquote>对此，美国银行首席经济学家Michelle Meyer写道，“在对价格上涨（PCE平减指数环比为4.4%）进行调整后，名义支出的疲软导致我们跟踪第三季度实际消费者支出的saar环比仅为1.5%。此前，第二季度实际消费跟踪为12.3%。“将这个数字插入更大的GDP模型，美国银行现在发现“第三季度经济运行速度放缓”，并且目前零售销售报告发布后仅追踪4.5%，低于该行官方预测的环比SAA 7%，该预测即将大幅下降。</blockquote> Just hours later, Goldman strategist Chris Hussey chimed in with a preview of what was coming writing that \"the combination of lower-than-expected retail sales and auto production in July, and given an increasingly likely drag on services consumption from the Delta variant, our economists are will likely revise our second-half growth assumptions even as we still do not expect material economic impact from the Delta variant in the US amidst abundant vaccine supply and relatively permissive COVID policies.\"<blockquote>仅仅几个小时后，高盛策略师Chris Hussey就对即将发生的事情进行了预览，他写道，“7月份零售额和汽车产量低于预期，考虑到德尔塔变异毒株对服务消费的拖累越来越大，我们的经济学家可能会修改我们对下半年增长的假设，尽管在疫苗供应充足和新冠政策相对宽松的情况下，我们仍然预计美国德尔塔变异毒株不会对经济产生重大影响。”</blockquote> Well, he was right, and moments ago - for the second time in under a month -Goldman has slashed its Q3 GDP forecast to just 5.5% from 8.5% as of late July (and 9.5% previously),as Goldman's chief economist now warns that \"the impact of the Delta variant on growth and inflation is proving to be somewhat larger than we expected.\"<blockquote>嗯，他是对的，就在刚才——不到一个月内第二次——高盛已将第三季度GDP预测从7月底的8.5%（此前为9.5%）下调至仅5.5%，正如高盛首席经济学家现在警告的那样，“事实证明，德尔塔变异毒株对增长和通胀的影响比我们预期的要大一些。”</blockquote> We have lowered our Q3 GDP forecast to +5.5%, reflecting hits to both consumer spending and production. Spending on dining, travel, and some other services is likely to decline in August, though we expect the drop to be modest and brief. Production is still suffering from supply chain disruptions, especially in the auto industry, and this is likely to mean less inventory rebuild in Q3. The bank's revised forecast also trims its full year 2021 GDP forecast to below consensus 6% (vs. 6.4% previously and 6.2% consensus) and leads to 2022 growth of 4.5%, a number which at this rate will soon be slashed to 0 or negative.<blockquote>我们已将第三季度GDP预测下调至+5.5%，反映出消费者支出和生产受到的打击。八月份餐饮、旅游和其他一些服务支出可能会下降，尽管我们预计下降幅度不大且短暂。生产仍然受到供应链中断的影响，尤其是在汽车行业，这可能意味着第三季度的库存重建减少。央行修订后的预测还将2021年全年GDP预测下调至6%以下（此前为6.4%，市场普遍预期为6.2%），并导致2022年增长4.5%，按照这个速度，这一数字很快将被削减至0或负数。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cac3d7e08c01e3117276cba4e98c1719\" tg-width=\"826\" tg-height=\"487\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Here are some more details from Goldman behind the sharp cut to GDP, which it blames on - what else - the convenient Delta variant, and not t - say - that US consumers were once again tapped out, and with no more stimmy cash and savings all spent, was instead borrowingliterallyrecordamounts on their credit cards.<blockquote>以下是高盛在GDP大幅削减背后提供的更多细节，它将其归咎于——还有什么——便利的德尔塔变异毒株，而不是t-说——美国消费者再次被耗尽，并且不再有刺激的现金和储蓄全部花掉，而是字面上的借贷记录他们信用卡上的金额。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d88ea371481a13ae37ab8a93ba87bfc\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Anyway, here is how Goldman feeds the \"but Delta\" fiction:<blockquote>无论如何，高盛是如何助长“但是三角洲”的虚构的：</blockquote> The Delta variant is weighing on both consumer spending and production in Q3.<blockquote>德尔塔变异毒株给第三季度的消费者支出和生产带来压力。</blockquote> On the consumption side, we cut our 2021H2 forecast slightly last month, anticipating that renewed virus spread would delay a full recovery of the office-adjacent economy and the most virus-sensitive services, such as entertainment events. But the decline in retail sales in July and the drop-off in our consumer spending tracker through early August, shown in Exhibit 1, suggest a larger slowdown in spending than we expected. <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2130c6999cfd9d7ab6962e752ee316f\" tg-width=\"827\" tg-height=\"530\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Forward-looking indicators also point to a further pullback in services spending. OpenTable data show a roughly 7% decline in restaurant reservations since the end of July, travel companies report an increase in cancellations and a modest decline in bookings, and press reports note that some hospitals are again delaying elective surgeries to clear capacity for Covid patients.<blockquote>在消费方面，我们上个月小幅下调了2021年下半年的预测，预计病毒的重新传播将推迟办公室附近经济和对病毒最敏感的服务（例如娱乐活动）的全面复苏。但如图表1所示，7月份零售额的下降以及截至8月初消费者支出跟踪数据的下降表明支出放缓幅度超出了我们的预期。前瞻性指标还表明服务支出将进一步回落。OpenTable数据显示，自7月底以来，餐厅预订量下降了约7%，旅游公司报告取消预订量增加，预订量略有下降，新闻报道指出，一些医院再次推迟择期手术，以清理新冠患者的容量。</blockquote> Goldman also decided to blame supply-chain bottlenecks - the same bottlenecks that were patently obvious last month yet when countless penguins, like Goldman, expected them to be \"transitory.\" Well, they aren't looking so transitory now, eh?<blockquote>高盛还决定将责任归咎于供应链瓶颈——同样的瓶颈在上个月显而易见，当时无数像高盛一样的企鹅预计它们只是“暂时的”。嗯，他们现在看起来不那么短暂了，嗯？</blockquote> <ul> <li></li> <li>On the production side, the Delta variant is prolonging supply chain disruptions and delaying a full rebound of factory activity. Production holdups in Q2 led to a larger-than-expected inventory drawdown and widening of the trade deficit as US producers struggled to meet strong consumer demand. This accounted for much of the eventual disappointment on Q2 GDP growth, but a rebound in production and the rebuild of depleted inventories—especially at automakers—appeared likely to boost Q3 growth.</li> <li>Unfortunately, that expectation has proven premature. Earlier this month we highlighted the risk of global supply chain spillovers from the impact of the Delta variant in the Asia Pacific region, where new Covid restrictions are much more stringent than in the US. Since then more setbacks have emerged, including problems for semiconductor producers in Malaysia and a major port closure in China.</li> <li>Our autos analysts note that automakers now expect that the disruption from the semiconductor supply shortage to global auto production will be nearly as large in Q3 as in Q2 and that supply will not increase until late Q3 or Q4. As Exhibit 2 shows, initial US auto production schedules for Q3 have proven much too optimistic.We have therefore cut our Q3 inventory accumulation forecast from $82bn to $32bn, though the turnaround from the sharp inventory drawdown in Q2 is still worth 4pp for Q3 GDP growth.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/839e8bf2da50d0349da9d5254542ec1d\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"532\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">If that was the extent of it, we would probably not even bother with this note: after all it's just another example of Goldman just being wrong and failing to actually observe what is going on in the economy (something we described in detail in \"\"A Sudden Negative Change In The Economy\": Consumer Spending Slides As Majority Now Expect A New Slowdown\").<blockquote><ul><li></li><li>在生产方面，德尔塔变异毒株正在延长供应链中断，并推迟工厂活动的全面反弹。由于美国生产商难以满足强劲的消费者需求，第二季度生产停滞导致库存减少幅度超出预期，贸易逆差扩大。这在很大程度上解释了第二季度GDP增长最终令人失望的原因，但生产反弹和耗尽库存的重建（尤其是汽车制造商）似乎可能会提振第三季度的增长。</li><li>不幸的是，事实证明这种期望为时过早本月早些时候，我们强调了亚太地区德尔塔变异毒株影响对全球供应链溢出的风险，该地区新的Covid限制比美国严格得多。自那以来，出现了更多挫折，包括马来西亚半导体生产商的问题和中国主要港口的关闭。</li><li>我们的汽车分析师指出，汽车制造商现在预计，半导体供应短缺对全球汽车生产的干扰在第三季度几乎与第二季度一样大，而且供应要到第三季度末或第四季度才会增加。如图表2所示，事实证明，美国第三季度最初的汽车生产计划过于乐观。因此，我们将第三季度库存积累预测从820亿美元下调至320亿美元，尽管第二季度库存大幅减少的好转仍对第三季度GDP增长产生4个百分点的影响。</li></ul>如果是这样的话，我们可能甚至不会为这篇文章费心：毕竟，这只是高盛错误的另一个例子，未能实际观察经济中正在发生的事情（我们在“经济的突然负面变化：消费者支出下滑，因为大多数人现在预计会出现新的放缓”）。</blockquote> But sadly it gets worse. So much so that Goldman's note is not so much about the bank's latest me culpa on its GDP forecast (it will be slashed many more times in the coming months, that much we can guarantee) but that it was the first overt admission from Goldman that the US is heading for stagflation, because while Goldman is busy cutting its GDP forecast, it was also hiking its surging inflation forecast... and to those who don't know what stagflation is, now is a good time to look it up. Here again is Kostin:<blockquote>但可悲的是，情况变得更糟了。以至于高盛的报告与其说是关于该行对其GDP预测的最新指责（我们可以保证，未来几个月将会下调更多次），不如说是高盛首次公开承认美国正在走向滞胀，因为在高盛忙于下调GDP预测的同时，它也上调了飙升的通胀预测...对于那些不知道滞胀是什么的人来说，现在是查找滞胀的好时机。科斯汀又来了：</blockquote> A Bigger Inflation Surge in 2021:The impact of the Delta variant on supply chains is also likely to push prices even higher in the short run on some of the durable goods categories that have contributed to the inflation surge this year.<blockquote>2021年通胀将大幅飙升：德尔塔变异毒株对供应链的影响也可能在短期内推高一些导致今年通胀飙升的耐用品类别的价格。</blockquote> The left side of Exhibit 4 shows that, as a result of ongoing auto production problems, new car inventories are likely to fall to around 1 million, down more than 70% from pre-pandemic levels. This has led to much larger increases in new car prices in recent months than seen in many years. Our auto sector analysts expect further price increases over the next few months and then a partial return of promotional pricing at year-end as production normalizes, and we have revised our forecast accordingly. <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b227704093b648b57adb0db20a0e245\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"480\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Other durable goods that are downstream from the semiconductor shortage—such as consumer electronics and household appliances, shown in Exhibit 5—have also seen much higher than usual inflation this year, reflecting both supply constraints and strong demand. Our sector analysts expect that many consumer electronics companies will announce price increases in the upcoming earnings season and that most major household appliance producers will also raise prices significantly further this year. We have therefore bumped up our forecasts for these categories too.<blockquote>图表4的左侧显示，由于持续的汽车生产问题，新车库存可能会降至100万辆左右，比大流行前的水平下降70%以上。这导致近几个月新车价格涨幅比多年来大得多。我们的汽车行业分析师预计，未来几个月价格将进一步上涨，然后随着生产正常化，促销定价将在年底部分回归，我们相应地修改了预测。半导体短缺下游的其他耐用品——如图表5所示的消费电子产品和家用电器——今年的通胀率也远高于往常，反映出供应限制和需求强劲。我们的行业分析师预计，许多消费电子公司将在即将到来的财报季宣布提价，大多数主要家用电器生产商今年也将进一步大幅提价。因此，我们也提高了对这些类别的预测。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e8455e62dd9048e1cb663f20fbb4bde\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"527\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">But while one can, in theory, get away without spending on appliances, cars and video products, one has to eat. And sadly here the inflation is about to surge even higher.<blockquote>但是，虽然理论上一个人可以不花钱购买电器、汽车和视频产品，但他必须吃饭。可悲的是，这里的通货膨胀率将会飙升得更高。</blockquote> We also raised our short-term expectations for food services inflation.In June we noted that higher wage growth for low-paid workers should flow through to higher consumer prices in sectors such as restaurants that rely heavily on low-paid labor. That has happened to an even greater extent than we anticipated in the last two CPI prints, and there is probably still a couple months of upward pressure left in the pipeline before the end of federal unemployment benefits cools wage and price pressures. The punchline: \"We now expect year-on-year core PCE inflation to reach 3.75% at the end of 2021.\"<blockquote>我们还上调了对食品服务通胀的短期预期。6月份，我们指出，低薪工人工资的更高增长应该会导致餐馆等严重依赖低薪劳动力的行业的消费者价格上涨。这种情况的发生程度比我们在过去两次CPI数据中预期的还要大，在联邦失业救济金的结束冷却工资和价格压力之前，可能还有几个月的上行压力。笑点：“我们现在预计2021年底核心PCE同比通胀率将达到3.75%。\"</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2d5d6cea47a0e228a697ec6728db413\" tg-width=\"1063\" tg-height=\"776\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">So putting it all together:a drop in GDP + \"a bigger surge in inflation\" = stagflation.We said as much in May \"This Is All About Stagflation... The U.S. Is Walking Into The Early Stages Of The Fourth Turning\" and we are surprised it only took Goldman 3 months to catch up.<blockquote>所以把所有这些放在一起：GDP下降+“通胀更大飙升”=滞胀。我们在5月份也说过“这一切都与滞胀有关……美国正在进入第四次转折的早期阶段”，我们很惊讶高盛只用了3个月就赶上了。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-comes-stagflation-goldman-slashes-gdp-estimate-second-time-3-weeks-sees-bigger\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-comes-stagflation-goldman-slashes-gdp-estimate-second-time-3-weeks-sees-bigger","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161694085","content_text":"It was good while it lasted, but the party is well and truly ending.\nJust three weeks ago, Goldman Sachs - which last year was the first bank to unveil materially above consensus GDP projections - cut its 2021 second half consumption growth forecast, resulting in 1% downgrade to its GDP growth forecasts for Q3 and Q4 to +8.5% and +5.0%, respectively, \"as it is becoming apparent that the service sector recovery in the US is unlikely to be as robust\" as the bank had expected. Which is odd considering the trillions in monetary and fiscal stimulus that have entered into the economy. One wonder how many more trillions would be needed for Goldman to be happy.\nBut while Goldman's expected 2021 slowdown was manageable,it got far worse in 2022, when the sluggishness is expected to truly hammer the growth rate, which Goldman now expected to shrink to a trend-like 1.5% - 2% by the second half of 2022, a far \"sharper deceleration than consensus expects.\"\nIn retrospect, the bad news was just starting.\nAs frequent readers recall, just yesterday we pointed out that US economic growth \"suddenly collapsed\" as the latest dismal retail sales print showed, validating the latest BofA Fund Manager Survey which saw a collapse in expectations for everything from growth, to profits and inflation.\nIn response, Bank of America's chief economist Michelle Meyer wrotes that \"after adjusting for higher prices (PCE deflator of 4.4% qoq saar), the softening in nominal spendingleads us to track only 1.5% qoq saar for real consumer spending in 3Q. This follows 2Q real consumption tracking of 12.3%.\" Plugging that number into the bigger GDP model, and BofA now finds that \"the economy is running at a slower pace in 3Q,\" andcurrently tracking just 4.5% following the retail sales report,down from the bank's official forecast of 7% qoq saa, which is about to come down significantly.\nJust hours later, Goldman strategist Chris Hussey chimed in with a preview of what was coming writing that \"the combination of lower-than-expected retail sales and auto production in July, and given an increasingly likely drag on services consumption from the Delta variant, our economists are will likely revise our second-half growth assumptions even as we still do not expect material economic impact from the Delta variant in the US amidst abundant vaccine supply and relatively permissive COVID policies.\"\nWell, he was right, and moments ago - for the second time in under a month -Goldman has slashed its Q3 GDP forecast to just 5.5% from 8.5% as of late July (and 9.5% previously),as Goldman's chief economist now warns that \"the impact of the Delta variant on growth and inflation is proving to be somewhat larger than we expected.\"\n\n We have lowered our Q3 GDP forecast to +5.5%, reflecting hits to both consumer spending and production. Spending on dining, travel, and some other services is likely to decline in August, though we expect the drop to be modest and brief. Production is still suffering from supply chain disruptions, especially in the auto industry, and this is likely to mean less inventory rebuild in Q3.\n\nThe bank's revised forecast also trims its full year 2021 GDP forecast to below consensus 6% (vs. 6.4% previously and 6.2% consensus) and leads to 2022 growth of 4.5%, a number which at this rate will soon be slashed to 0 or negative.\nHere are some more details from Goldman behind the sharp cut to GDP, which it blames on - what else - the convenient Delta variant, and not t - say - that US consumers were once again tapped out, and with no more stimmy cash and savings all spent, was instead borrowingliterallyrecordamounts on their credit cards.\nAnyway, here is how Goldman feeds the \"but Delta\" fiction:\nThe Delta variant is weighing on both consumer spending and production in Q3.\n\n On the consumption side, we cut our 2021H2 forecast slightly last month, anticipating that renewed virus spread would delay a full recovery of the office-adjacent economy and the most virus-sensitive services, such as entertainment events. But the decline in retail sales in July and the drop-off in our consumer spending tracker through early August, shown in Exhibit 1, suggest a larger slowdown in spending than we expected.\n\nForward-looking indicators also point to a further pullback in services spending. OpenTable data show a roughly 7% decline in restaurant reservations since the end of July, travel companies report an increase in cancellations and a modest decline in bookings, and press reports note that some hospitals are again delaying elective surgeries to clear capacity for Covid patients.\nGoldman also decided to blame supply-chain bottlenecks - the same bottlenecks that were patently obvious last month yet when countless penguins, like Goldman, expected them to be \"transitory.\" Well, they aren't looking so transitory now, eh?\n\n\nOn the production side, the Delta variant is prolonging supply chain disruptions and delaying a full rebound of factory activity. Production holdups in Q2 led to a larger-than-expected inventory drawdown and widening of the trade deficit as US producers struggled to meet strong consumer demand. This accounted for much of the eventual disappointment on Q2 GDP growth, but a rebound in production and the rebuild of depleted inventories—especially at automakers—appeared likely to boost Q3 growth.\nUnfortunately, that expectation has proven premature. Earlier this month we highlighted the risk of global supply chain spillovers from the impact of the Delta variant in the Asia Pacific region, where new Covid restrictions are much more stringent than in the US. Since then more setbacks have emerged, including problems for semiconductor producers in Malaysia and a major port closure in China.\nOur autos analysts note that automakers now expect that the disruption from the semiconductor supply shortage to global auto production will be nearly as large in Q3 as in Q2 and that supply will not increase until late Q3 or Q4. As Exhibit 2 shows, initial US auto production schedules for Q3 have proven much too optimistic.We have therefore cut our Q3 inventory accumulation forecast from $82bn to $32bn, though the turnaround from the sharp inventory drawdown in Q2 is still worth 4pp for Q3 GDP growth.\n\nIf that was the extent of it, we would probably not even bother with this note: after all it's just another example of Goldman just being wrong and failing to actually observe what is going on in the economy (something we described in detail in \"\"A Sudden Negative Change In The Economy\": Consumer Spending Slides As Majority Now Expect A New Slowdown\").\nBut sadly it gets worse. So much so that Goldman's note is not so much about the bank's latest me culpa on its GDP forecast (it will be slashed many more times in the coming months, that much we can guarantee) but that it was the first overt admission from Goldman that the US is heading for stagflation, because while Goldman is busy cutting its GDP forecast, it was also hiking its surging inflation forecast... and to those who don't know what stagflation is, now is a good time to look it up. Here again is Kostin:\nA Bigger Inflation Surge in 2021:The impact of the Delta variant on supply chains is also likely to push prices even higher in the short run on some of the durable goods categories that have contributed to the inflation surge this year.\n\n The left side of Exhibit 4 shows that, as a result of ongoing auto production problems, new car inventories are likely to fall to around 1 million, down more than 70% from pre-pandemic levels. This has led to much larger increases in new car prices in recent months than seen in many years. Our auto sector analysts expect further price increases over the next few months and then a partial return of promotional pricing at year-end as production normalizes, and we have revised our forecast accordingly.\n\nOther durable goods that are downstream from the semiconductor shortage—such as consumer electronics and household appliances, shown in Exhibit 5—have also seen much higher than usual inflation this year, reflecting both supply constraints and strong demand. Our sector analysts expect that many consumer electronics companies will announce price increases in the upcoming earnings season and that most major household appliance producers will also raise prices significantly further this year. We have therefore bumped up our forecasts for these categories too.\nBut while one can, in theory, get away without spending on appliances, cars and video products, one has to eat. And sadly here the inflation is about to surge even higher.\n\nWe also raised our short-term expectations for food services inflation.In June we noted that higher wage growth for low-paid workers should flow through to higher consumer prices in sectors such as restaurants that rely heavily on low-paid labor.\n That has happened to an even greater extent than we anticipated in the last two CPI prints, and there is probably still a couple months of upward pressure left in the pipeline before the end of federal unemployment benefits cools wage and price pressures.\n\nThe punchline: \"We now expect year-on-year core PCE inflation to reach 3.75% at the end of 2021.\"\nSo putting it all together:a drop in GDP + \"a bigger surge in inflation\" = stagflation.We said as much in May \"This Is All About Stagflation... The U.S. Is Walking Into The Early Stages Of The Fourth Turning\" and we are surprised it only took Goldman 3 months to catch up.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5577363,"gmtCreate":1629361382203,"gmtModify":1635147885394,"authorId":4087910819212830,"author":{"id":4087910819212830,"idStr":"4087910819212830","authorId":4087910819212830,"name":"Benz92","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdffe9e0c0aeef66e47ffda88bd51c5b","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":838098509,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":10,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}