PayPal: Time To Go All In_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

PayPal: Time To Go All In

Seeking Alpha2021-11-22

Summary PayPal has fallen over 30% since its ATH due to poor guidance and increased competition concerns. I argue that PayPal is still on track to achieve its long-term goals, and competition, albeit...

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Alagu
·2021-11-23
Warning, seekingalpha has bags. Let them unload before we load up. There is plenty of time to buy pypl because this is not going anywhere.
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Vanillin
·2021-11-22
I still think Paypal is a good long term hold.
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investforget
·2021-11-22
Could bottom out
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Barbarazhao
·2021-11-22
Hope so
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GoG
·2021-11-22
K
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- GoG:
  k
  2021-11-22
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DMC8
·2021-11-22
Like pls
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Never ever f
·2021-11-22
Payback time !
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TradeMore
·2021-11-22
Ok
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- Never ever f:
  Great payback
  2021-11-22
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Rolliopan
·2021-11-22
Ok
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- Mavfurious:
  Ok
  2021-11-22
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vxf
·2021-11-22
Hi all,feel free to check out my profile about my crypto journey. it's for sharing only, simple PDF, no scams. Thanks & have a nice day.
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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal: Time To Go All In\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-22 11:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4470923-paypal-time-to-go-all-in>Seeking Alpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nPayPal has fallen over 30% since its ATH due to poor guidance and increased competition concerns.\nI argue that PayPal is still on track to achieve its long-term goals, and competition, albeit...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4470923-paypal-time-to-go-all-in\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"PYPL","symbol_name":"PayPal","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4470923-paypal-time-to-go-all-in","article_id":"1158506816","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158506816","pubTimestamp":1637550842,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Summary\n\nPayPal has fallen over 30% since its ATH due to poor guidance and increased competition con","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"translate_title":"PayPal：是时候全力以赴了","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9},"content_text":"Summary\n\nPayPal has fallen over 30% since its ATH due to poor guidance and increased competition concerns.\nI argue that PayPal is still on track to achieve its long-term goals, and competition, albeit fierce, is manageable.\nThe potential of Venmo and PayPal's future acquisition are what keep me coming back for more.\n\nSouth_agency/E+ via Getty Images\nThesis Summary\nSeven months ago, we analyzedPayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) and concluded that our target price of $425 for 2025 made the $266 purchase give a compound return of 10.5% per year. At the time, we were forecasting revenue, earnings, and PE ratios to calculate the target price.\nAlthough our forecasted PE ratio based on its relation to Earnings suggested the price was a little high for that point in time, it seemed that the market was granting the company a higher valuation given its remarkably consistent track record.\nIt took very little smoothing to set historical revenue growth at a consistent 17.9% per year, and as for the earnings margin, net income was very close to 13.55% of revenue almost every year. The only two exceptions were one negative, in 2014, and one positive, in 2020, where the margin was 19.6%.\nAs the year 2021 has progressed,PayPal has dropped significantly, all the way down to $200. At this price, the $425 target for 2025 would give you a compound annual return of 20.1%. I can think of three possible explanations for this collapse:\na) The price was ahead of its time, and 2020 over performance got investors thinking growth had accelerated and that the price would go higher than we were forecasting. Ultimately, an investment relying on growth that has not yet materialized requires higher returns, and if the company is growing 18%, the investor wants to make at least 18% on their investment.\nb) There is a perceived risk of earnings growth slowing down significantly based on the company's performance after looking at financial reports from the first three quarters of 2021.\nc) There is a perceived risk of growth slowing down significantly due to factors outside of the company's financial performance, based on a qualitative analysis of the company and its addressable market.\nIf the correct answer is A, this is a great investment. If the logic feels compelling enough you should buy now and enjoy your 20% return over the years. I am going to focus on the other two scenarios, where we need to think about whether the business itself is actually in trouble.\n2021 Financial Performance\nOur previous analysis onPayPal was based on revenue and net income, as per GAAP figures up to 2020. Here I am going to look at the results of the first three quarters of 2021 to see if the results are disappointing.\nFirst off, we have revenue growth. Indeed, quarter on quarter it doesn't look great, but this is not uncommon inPayPal's history of seasonality. If you look at the chart below, you can see that revenue grows the most in the fourth quarter, always drops in the first (QoQ), and has mixed results from the first to the third. Also, to continue on the 17.9% growth trend, revenue in the fourth quarter would only have to be %6.65 billion less than 8% higher than in the third quarter.\nSource: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions.\nIt appears that all is good with revenue growth so far and 2021 looks to deliver once again on the near 20% revenue growth figure. Let's take a look at earnings. So far in the first 3 quarters of 2021, earnings have been, just as in 2020, much higher than the previous trend of 13.5% of revenue. So far, earnings are between 17.5 and 19% of revenue, with an average of 18.3%. It is true that this was 19.6% in 2020, but it also means that we can no longer reasonably consider 2020 an anomaly in that respect.\nSource: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.\nLooking at these figures, the only thing that could worry investors is year-on-year growth rates. If you look at the table below you can see the growth rates of revenue and earnings for Q3 2021, YTD or YoY and with the 1-year growth rate or the 2-year CAGR.\nSource: Author's work based on financial reports.\nThis gives a clue of what might be the problem, as year-on-year growth rates in the third quarter look significantly worse than average, especially in earnings growth. However, if you take into account that 2020 Q3 was an exceptionally good quarter, it seems likePayPal is being punished for how good results were in 2020. If you look at the 2-year growth, results seem great, especially in earnings (it is also true that Q3 2019 was exceptionally bad, but one argument is as valid as the other).\nTo illustrate this point, imagine that net income had been lower in 2020. The chart below contains the same figures as the one before, except that 2020 net income has been arbitrarily reduced to fit a more growing pattern.\nSource: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. *The figure from 2014 has been removed and the net income figure from 2020 has been reduced to illustrate the point explained above. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.\nThe result would be a much more promising-looking trend altogether. When taking short-term growth figures into account when valuing a company one should wonder if they are punishing bad results or actually punishing good results. All considered it doesn't seem like there is a reasonable cause in the observed financial performance ofPayPal that should make you think prospects are worse than they were 9 months ago.\nIs market growth a concern?\nWith that said, the only other possible explanation is that, indeed, there are external factors that will prevent PayPal from expanding at the previously perceived rate. The stock was recently downgraded by Bernstein, claiming \"market share growth concerns\". The stock has slid over 30% since it reached an ATH at $300 makingPayPal's valuation that much more attractive. But how does this weigh against concerns over market growth?\n\"Fintech\" is no longer a novel concept, and in the last few years, we have seen hundreds if not thousands of companies come out with similar versions of whatPayPal offers. To say the market is saturated, might even be an understatement, butPayPal remains the king of the hill.\nSource: datanyze.com\nIn terms of Payment Processing Software,PayPal has over 50% of the market, and I say that because Braintree, which takes the fifth position, is also owned byPayPal. The problemPayPal faces though, isn't coming from the hundreds of startups and newly IPO'd companies, but by the large players which we also see on his list.\nThis includes AmazonPay, Shopify Inc.'s (SHOP) ShopPay and even Google Pay. Arguably, some of these services have an advantage, in that their payment offerings complement other services. Shopify, for example, incentivizes its users and merchants to use its payment processing platforms, and Google has the advantage of being deeply embedded in a lot of the things we do.\nIn this regard, Shopify and Amazon, for example, have a big advantage, in that they control where much of the money online is spent and can use this to their advantage. However, the payment system is not just limited to eCommerce.PayPal has a presence in many other areas, such as international transfers/transactions and physical payments.PayPal can be used as a bank, and there are also advantages to being a complete financial service focused company, just like there are advantages to having an ecosystem of buyers and sellers on your platform.\nYes, the market is saturated, and growth will become a challenge, but I still believe thatPayPal can succeed long-term and I'll explain why.\nTwo more reasons I will hold on toPayPal\nMy analysis continues to support thatPayPal is on track to deliver the growth and returns I expected weeks ago. In this regard,PayPal offers growth at a reasonable price. It is a profitable and well-established company that is going nowhere.\nMore specifically though, two factors make me especially bullish onPayPal; Venmo and the power of its Balance Sheet.\nStarting with Venmo, this is perhaps the biggest reason why I thinkPayPal still holds plenty of value and growth potential. Venmo is one of the most popular payment Apps in the United States. In 2020 over $159 billion in transactions were processed through Venmo in 2020, and the App is on track to deliver $900 million in revenues in 2021 according to the latest earnings call.\nBut Venmo is barely scratching the surface of what it can achieve, both in terms of growth and monetization. When it comes to the latter, we can see that Venmo can still come a long way in terms of monetization if we compare it to Square Inc.'s (SQ) CashApp.According to estimates, CashApp produced $54 per user in 2020, while Venmo only made $12 from each active user. There are slight differences in transaction costs, but most of this comes from the fact that CashApp is used more for cryptocurrency transactions. This is something Venmo can easily replicate.\nIn terms of growth though, Venmo can go much farther. Originally, Venmo was conceived as a peer-to-peer payment system, but this is quickly moving to businesses too. Amazon.com (AMZN) will be accepting Venmo payments starting in 2022, and I believe this will see significant success.\nVenmo has a place in the mobile phones of 65 million people, and this is somethingPayPal can leverage to its advantage moving forward.\nThe other big reason I will continue to holdPayPal is its incredible Balance Sheet, and all the growth opportunities this opens.PayPal has $13.29 billion in cash and negative net debt. It has a much stronger balance sheet than its most established peers, such as Mastercard Corporation (MA). It's now time forPayPal to put this money to good use to expand its platform, especially internationally, something we already got a taste of in the last investor presentation.\nSource: Investor Presentation\nOn September 7th, it was announced thatPayPal was acquiring Paidy, which uses artificial intelligence to find out the creditworthiness of its users and offers payment instalment plans. This is just one example of howPayPal can enter new markets and expand its footprint. Much like I argued before with Shopify,PayPal can now leverage Paidy to also push its other payment platforms into the Japanese market. I am very excited to see what other acquisitionsPayPal will make.\nTakeaway\nIn conclusion, and referring back to the thesis summary, I see no material reason why shares ofPayPal should continue to depreciate. Exogenous factors haven't changed, competition has always been tough and the company is still on track to deliver on its medium and long term growth targets.PayPal offers investors growth at a reasonable price, and that is hard to come by these days.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":875367599,"gmtCreate":1637614216745,"gmtModify":1637614216745,"author":{"id":"3570022529586181","authorId":"3570022529586181","name":"Alagu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3570022529586181","authorIdStr":"3570022529586181"},"htmlText":"Warning, seekingalpha has bags. Let them unload before we load up. There is plenty of time to buy pypl because this is not going anywhere.&nbsp;","listText":"Warning, seekingalpha has bags. Let them unload before we load up. There is plenty of time to buy pypl because this is not going anywhere.&nbsp;","text":"Warning, seekingalpha has bags. Let them unload before we load up. There is plenty of time to buy pypl because this is not going anywhere.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875367599","repostId":1158506816,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1158506816","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637550842,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158506816?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-22 11:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal: Time To Go All In<blockquote>PayPal：是时候全力以赴了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158506816","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPayPal has fallen over 30% since its ATH due to poor guidance and increased competition con","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>PayPal has fallen over 30% since its ATH due to poor guidance and increased competition concerns.</li> <li>I argue that PayPal is still on track to achieve its long-term goals, and competition, albeit fierce, is manageable.</li> <li>The potential of Venmo and PayPal's future acquisition are what keep me coming back for more.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71b7d55858c35eda92a04deae062ef8b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">South_agency/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>由于指导不力和竞争担忧加剧，PayPal自ATH以来股价已下跌超过30%。</li><li>我认为PayPal仍在实现其长期目标的轨道上，竞争尽管激烈，但是可控的。</li><li>Venmo和PayPal未来收购的潜力让我不断回来购买更多。</li></ul>South_agency/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> Thesis Summary<blockquote>论文摘要</blockquote> Seven months ago, we analyzedPayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) and concluded that our target price of $425 for 2025 made the $266 purchase give a compound return of 10.5% per year. At the time, we were forecasting revenue, earnings, and PE ratios to calculate the target price.<blockquote>七个月前，我们分析了PayPal Holdings Inc.(PYPL)，得出的结论是，我们2025年425美元的目标价使得266美元的收购每年复合回报率为10.5%。当时，我们正在预测收入、盈利和市盈率来计算目标价。</blockquote> Although our forecasted PE ratio based on its relation to Earnings suggested the price was a little high for that point in time, it seemed that the market was granting the company a higher valuation given its remarkably consistent track record.<blockquote>尽管我们根据其与收益的关系预测市盈率表明当时的价格有点高，但鉴于该公司非常一致的业绩记录，市场似乎给予了该公司更高的估值。</blockquote> It took very little smoothing to set historical revenue growth at a consistent 17.9% per year, and as for the earnings margin, net income was very close to 13.55% of revenue almost every year. The only two exceptions were one negative, in 2014, and one positive, in 2020, where the margin was 19.6%.<blockquote>几乎不需要任何平滑就将历史收入增长率设定在每年17.9%，至于利润率，净利润几乎每年都非常接近收入的13.55%。仅有的两个例外是2014年的负利率和2020年的正利率，利润率为19.6%。</blockquote> As the year 2021 has progressed,PayPal has dropped significantly, all the way down to $200. At this price, the $425 target for 2025 would give you a compound annual return of 20.1%. I can think of three possible explanations for this collapse:<blockquote>随着2021年的进展，PayPal大幅下跌，一路跌至200美元。按照这个价格，2025年425美元的目标将为您带来20.1%的复合年回报率。对于这种崩溃，我可以想到三种可能的解释：</blockquote> a) The price was ahead of its time, and 2020 over performance got investors thinking growth had accelerated and that the price would go higher than we were forecasting. Ultimately, an investment relying on growth that has not yet materialized requires higher returns, and if the company is growing 18%, the investor wants to make at least 18% on their investment.<blockquote>a)价格领先于时代，2020年的表现让投资者认为增长已经加速，价格将高于我们的预期。最终，依赖尚未实现的增长的投资需要更高的回报，如果公司增长18%，投资者希望从投资中获得至少18%的回报。</blockquote> b) There is a perceived risk of earnings growth slowing down significantly based on the company's performance after looking at financial reports from the first three quarters of 2021.<blockquote>b)在查看2021年前三季度的财务报告后，根据公司的业绩，认为盈利增长存在大幅放缓的风险。</blockquote> c) There is a perceived risk of growth slowing down significantly due to factors outside of the company's financial performance, based on a qualitative analysis of the company and its addressable market.<blockquote>c)根据对公司及其目标市场的定性分析，由于公司财务业绩以外的因素，存在增长显着放缓的风险。</blockquote> If the correct answer is A, this is a great investment. If the logic feels compelling enough you should buy now and enjoy your 20% return over the years. I am going to focus on the other two scenarios, where we need to think about whether the business itself is actually in trouble.<blockquote>如果正确答案是A，这是一项伟大的投资。如果逻辑足够令人信服，您应该现在购买并享受多年来20%的回报。我将重点讨论另外两种情况，在这两种情况下，我们需要考虑企业本身是否真的陷入了困境。</blockquote> 2021 Financial Performance<blockquote>二零二一年财务表现</blockquote> Our previous analysis onPayPal was based on revenue and net income, as per GAAP figures up to 2020. Here I am going to look at the results of the first three quarters of 2021 to see if the results are disappointing.<blockquote>我们之前对PayPal的分析是基于截至2020年的GAAP数据的收入和净利润。这里我要看看2021年前三季度的业绩，看看业绩是否令人失望。</blockquote> First off, we have revenue growth. Indeed, quarter on quarter it doesn't look great, but this is not uncommon inPayPal's history of seasonality. If you look at the chart below, you can see that revenue grows the most in the fourth quarter, always drops in the first (QoQ), and has mixed results from the first to the third. Also, to continue on the 17.9% growth trend, revenue in the fourth quarter would only have to be %6.65 billion less than 8% higher than in the third quarter.<blockquote>首先，我们有收入增长。事实上，环比来看，情况并不乐观，但这在PayPal的季节性历史中并不罕见。如果你看下图，你可以看到第四季度收入增长最多，第一季度（环比）总是下降，并且从第一季度到第三季度的结果好坏参半。此外，要继续保持17.9%的增长趋势，第四季度的收入只需达到66.5亿美元，比第三季度增长不到8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fba8cbaa13348012cc020a72a4ecd1c\" tg-width=\"283\" tg-height=\"170\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。</blockquote> It appears that all is good with revenue growth so far and 2021 looks to deliver once again on the near 20% revenue growth figure. Let's take a look at earnings. So far in the first 3 quarters of 2021, earnings have been, just as in 2020, much higher than the previous trend of 13.5% of revenue. So far, earnings are between 17.5 and 19% of revenue, with an average of 18.3%. It is true that this was 19.6% in 2020, but it also means that we can no longer reasonably consider 2020 an anomaly in that respect.<blockquote>到目前为止，收入增长似乎一切顺利，2021年有望再次实现近20%的收入增长。我们来看看收益。到目前为止，2021年前3个季度的盈利与2020年一样，远高于之前占收入13.5%的趋势。到目前为止，盈利占收入的17.5%至19%之间，平均为18.3%。诚然，2020年这一比例为19.6%，但这也意味着我们不能再合理地认为2020年在这方面是一个异常现象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65fdec19cf0bd680067fed0f3ac34f92\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"290\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。2021年的数字是基于前3个季度的估计。</blockquote> Looking at these figures, the only thing that could worry investors is year-on-year growth rates. If you look at the table below you can see the growth rates of revenue and earnings for&nbsp;Q3 2021, YTD or YoY and with the 1-year growth rate or the 2-year CAGR.<blockquote>从这些数字来看，投资者唯一可能担心的是同比增长率。如果您查看下表，您可以看到2021年第三季度、年初至今或同比的收入和收益增长率以及1年增长率或2年CAGR。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c30583b007f9682b8b5c78496897f61d\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"145\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。</blockquote> This gives a clue of what might be the problem, as year-on-year growth rates in the third quarter look significantly worse than average, especially in earnings growth. However, if you take into account that 2020 Q3 was an exceptionally good quarter, it seems likePayPal is being punished for how good results were in 2020. If you look at the 2-year growth, results seem great, especially in earnings (it is also true that Q3 2019 was exceptionally bad, but one argument is as valid as the other).<blockquote>这为问题可能出在哪里提供了线索，因为第三季度的同比增长率看起来明显低于平均水平，尤其是在盈利增长方面。然而，如果你考虑到2020年第三季度是一个非常好的季度，那么PayPal似乎因2020年的良好业绩而受到惩罚。如果你看看两年的增长，结果似乎很好，尤其是在盈利方面（2019年第三季度确实异常糟糕，但一个论点和另一个一样有效）。</blockquote> To illustrate this point, imagine that net income had been lower in 2020. The chart below contains the same figures as the one before, except that 2020 net income has been arbitrarily reduced to fit a more growing pattern.<blockquote>为了说明这一点，想象一下2020年净利润较低。下图包含与上一张相同的数字，只是2020年净利润被任意减少以适应更增长的模式。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b14c61672e1db2d56752a6a07d858b3\" tg-width=\"483\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. *The figure from 2014 has been removed and the net income figure from 2020 has been reduced to illustrate the point explained above. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。*二零一四年的数字已删除，而二零二零年的净收入数字已减少，以说明上文所解释的要点。2021年的数字是基于前3个季度的估计。</blockquote> The result would be a much more promising-looking trend altogether. When taking short-term growth figures into account when valuing a company one should wonder if they are punishing bad results or actually punishing good results. All considered it doesn't seem like there is a reasonable cause in the observed financial performance ofPayPal that should make you think prospects are worse than they were 9 months ago.<blockquote>结果将是一个看起来更有希望的趋势。当在评估一家公司时考虑短期增长数据时，人们应该怀疑他们是在惩罚糟糕的结果还是实际上在惩罚好的结果。总的来说，观察到的PayPal财务表现似乎没有合理的原因让您认为前景比9个月前更糟糕。</blockquote> Is market growth a concern?<blockquote>市场增长令人担忧吗？</blockquote> With that said, the only other possible explanation is that, indeed, there are external factors that will prevent&nbsp;PayPal from expanding at the previously perceived rate. The stock was recently&nbsp;downgraded by Bernstein, claiming \"market share growth concerns\". The stock has slid over 30% since it reached an ATH at $300 makingPayPal's valuation that much more attractive. But how does this weigh against concerns over market growth?<blockquote>话虽如此，唯一其他可能的解释是，确实有外部因素会阻止PayPal以之前认为的速度扩张。该股最近被伯恩斯坦下调评级，声称“市场份额增长担忧”。自达到300美元的ATH以来，该股已下跌超过30%，这使得PayPal的估值更具吸引力。但这如何抵消对市场增长的担忧呢？</blockquote> \"Fintech\" is no longer a novel concept, and in the last few years, we have seen hundreds if not thousands of companies come out with similar versions of whatPayPal offers. To say the market is saturated, might even be an understatement, butPayPal remains the king of the hill.<blockquote>“金融科技”不再是一个新颖的概念，在过去几年中，我们已经看到数百家甚至数千家公司推出了PayPal提供的类似版本。说市场已经饱和甚至可能是一种保守的说法，但PayPal仍然是山中之王。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/462ce82e5652c8762836c4ef98dcdee5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: datanyze.com<blockquote>资料来源：datanyze.com</blockquote> In terms of Payment Processing Software,PayPal has over 50% of the market, and I say that because Braintree, which takes the fifth position, is also owned byPayPal. The problemPayPal faces though, isn't coming from the hundreds of startups and newly IPO'd companies, but by the large players which we also see on his list.<blockquote>在支付处理软件方面，PayPal拥有超过50%的市场份额，我这么说是因为排名第五的Braintree也归PayPal所有。然而，PayPal面临的问题并不是来自数百家初创公司和新上市的公司，而是来自我们在他的名单上也看到的大公司。</blockquote> This includes AmazonPay, Shopify Inc.'s (SHOP) ShopPay and even Google Pay. Arguably, some of these services have an advantage, in that their payment offerings complement other services. Shopify, for example, incentivizes its users and merchants to use its payment processing platforms, and Google has the advantage of being deeply embedded in a lot of the things we do.<blockquote>这包括AmazonPay、Shopify Inc.(SHOP)的ShopPay甚至Google Pay。可以说，其中一些服务具有优势，因为它们的支付产品补充了其他服务。例如，Shopify激励其用户和商家使用其支付处理平台，而谷歌的优势在于深入参与我们所做的许多事情。</blockquote> In this regard, Shopify and Amazon, for example, have a big advantage, in that they control where much of the money online is spent and can use this to their advantage. However, the payment system is not just limited to eCommerce.PayPal has a presence in many other areas, such as international transfers/transactions and physical payments.PayPal can be used as a bank, and there are also advantages to being a complete financial service focused company, just like there are advantages to having an ecosystem of buyers and sellers on your platform.<blockquote>例如，在这方面，Shopify和亚马逊有很大的优势，因为他们控制着大部分在线资金的花费，并可以利用这一点。然而，支付系统不仅仅局限于电子商务。PayPal在许多其他领域都有业务，如国际转账/交易和实物支付。PayPal可以用作银行，作为一家专注于完整金融服务的公司也有优势，就像在你的平台上拥有买家和卖家的生态系统也有优势一样。</blockquote> Yes, the market is saturated, and growth will become a challenge, but I still believe thatPayPal can succeed long-term and I'll explain why.<blockquote>是的，市场已经饱和，增长将成为一个挑战，但我仍然相信PayPal可以长期成功，我会解释原因。</blockquote> Two more reasons I will hold on toPayPal<blockquote>还有两个我会坚持下去的理由PayPal</blockquote> My analysis continues to support thatPayPal is on track to deliver the growth and returns I expected weeks ago. In this regard,PayPal offers growth at a reasonable price. It is a profitable and well-established company that is going nowhere.<blockquote>我的分析继续支持PayPal有望实现我几周前预期的增长和回报。在这方面，PayPal以合理的价格提供增长。这是一家盈利且信誉良好的公司，但却一事无成。</blockquote> More specifically though, two factors make me especially bullish onPayPal; Venmo and the power of its Balance Sheet.<blockquote>更具体地说，有两个因素让我特别看好PayPal；Venmo及其资产负债表的力量。</blockquote> Starting with Venmo, this is perhaps the biggest reason why I thinkPayPal still holds plenty of value and growth potential. Venmo is one of the most popular payment Apps in the United States. In 2020 over&nbsp;$159 billion in transactions&nbsp;were processed through Venmo in 2020, and the App is on track to deliver $900 million in revenues in 2021 according to the latest earnings call.<blockquote>从Venmo开始，这也许是我认为PayPal仍然拥有巨大价值和增长潜力的最大原因。Venmo是美国最受欢迎的支付应用之一。根据最新的收益看涨期权，2020年通过Venmo处理了超过1590亿美元的交易，该应用程序有望在2021年实现9亿美元的收入。</blockquote> But Venmo is barely scratching the surface of what it can achieve, both in terms of growth and monetization. When it comes to the latter, we can see that Venmo can still come a long way in terms of monetization if we compare it to Square Inc.'s (SQ) CashApp.According to estimates, CashApp produced $54 per user in 2020, while Venmo only made $12 from each active user. There are slight differences in transaction costs, but most of this comes from the fact that CashApp is used more for cryptocurrency transactions. This is something Venmo can easily replicate.<blockquote>但无论是在增长还是货币化方面，Venmo都只是触及了其所能实现的表面。谈到后者，如果我们将Venmo与Square Inc.(SQ)的CashApp进行比较，我们可以看到Venmo在货币化方面仍有很长的路要走。据估计，CashApp在2020年为每个用户带来了54美元的收入，而Venmo仅从每个活跃用户身上获得了12美元的收入。交易成本略有差异，但这大部分来自于CashApp更多地用于加密货币交易。这是Venmo可以轻松复制的。</blockquote> In terms of growth though, Venmo can go much farther. Originally, Venmo was conceived as a peer-to-peer payment system, but this is quickly moving to businesses too. Amazon.com (AMZN)&nbsp;will be accepting Venmo payments&nbsp;starting in 2022, and I believe this will see significant success.<blockquote>不过，就增长而言，Venmo可以走得更远。最初，Venmo被认为是一个点对点支付系统，但这也很快转移到企业。亚马逊(AMZN)将从2022年开始接受Venmo支付，我相信这将取得巨大成功。</blockquote> Venmo has a place in the mobile phones of 65 million people, and this is somethingPayPal can leverage to its advantage moving forward.<blockquote>Venmo在6500万人的手机中占有一席之地，这是PayPal可以利用的优势。</blockquote> The other big reason I will continue to holdPayPal is its incredible Balance Sheet, and all the growth opportunities this opens.PayPal has $13.29 billion in cash and negative net debt. It has a much stronger balance sheet than its most established peers, such as Mastercard Corporation (MA). It's now time forPayPal to put this money to good use to expand its platform, especially internationally, something we already got a taste of in the last investor presentation.<blockquote>我将继续持有PayPal的另一个重要原因是其令人难以置信的资产负债表，以及由此带来的所有增长机会。PayPal拥有132.9亿美元现金和负净债务。它的资产负债表比万事达卡公司（MA）等最成熟的同行要强大得多。现在是PayPal充分利用这笔资金来扩展其平台的时候了，特别是在国际上，我们已经在上次投资者演示中尝到了这一点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3484de41ef449aa085877ee9374fa00\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"648\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Investor Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：投资者介绍</blockquote> On September 7th, it was announced thatPayPal was acquiring Paidy, which uses artificial intelligence to find out the creditworthiness of its users and offers payment instalment plans. This is just one example of howPayPal can enter new markets and expand its footprint. Much like I argued before with Shopify,PayPal can now leverage Paidy to also push its other payment platforms into the Japanese market. I am very excited to see what other acquisitionsPayPal will make.<blockquote>9月7日，PayPal宣布收购Paidy，该公司使用人工智能来了解用户的信用度，并提供支付分期付款计划。这只是PayPal如何进入新市场并扩大其足迹的一个例子。就像我之前与Shopify争论的那样，PayPal现在可以利用Paidy将其其他支付平台推向日本市场。我很高兴看到PayPal还会进行哪些其他收购。</blockquote> Takeaway<blockquote>外卖</blockquote> In conclusion, and referring back to the thesis summary, I see no material reason why shares ofPayPal should continue to depreciate. Exogenous factors haven't changed, competition has always been tough and the company is still on track to deliver on its medium and long term growth targets.PayPal offers investors growth at a reasonable price, and that is hard to come by these days.<blockquote>总之，回到论文摘要，我认为PayPal的股价没有理由继续贬值。外生因素没有改变，竞争一直很激烈，公司仍有望实现中长期增长目标。PayPal以合理的价格为投资者提供增长，而这在当今很难实现。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal: Time To Go All In<blockquote>PayPal：是时候全力以赴了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal: Time To Go All In<blockquote>PayPal：是时候全力以赴了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-11-22 11:14\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>PayPal has fallen over 30% since its ATH due to poor guidance and increased competition concerns.</li> <li>I argue that PayPal is still on track to achieve its long-term goals, and competition, albeit fierce, is manageable.</li> <li>The potential of Venmo and PayPal's future acquisition are what keep me coming back for more.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71b7d55858c35eda92a04deae062ef8b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">South_agency/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>由于指导不力和竞争担忧加剧，PayPal自ATH以来股价已下跌超过30%。</li><li>我认为PayPal仍在实现其长期目标的轨道上，竞争尽管激烈，但是可控的。</li><li>Venmo和PayPal未来收购的潜力让我不断回来购买更多。</li></ul>South_agency/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> Thesis Summary<blockquote>论文摘要</blockquote> Seven months ago, we analyzedPayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) and concluded that our target price of $425 for 2025 made the $266 purchase give a compound return of 10.5% per year. At the time, we were forecasting revenue, earnings, and PE ratios to calculate the target price.<blockquote>七个月前，我们分析了PayPal Holdings Inc.(PYPL)，得出的结论是，我们2025年425美元的目标价使得266美元的收购每年复合回报率为10.5%。当时，我们正在预测收入、盈利和市盈率来计算目标价。</blockquote> Although our forecasted PE ratio based on its relation to Earnings suggested the price was a little high for that point in time, it seemed that the market was granting the company a higher valuation given its remarkably consistent track record.<blockquote>尽管我们根据其与收益的关系预测市盈率表明当时的价格有点高，但鉴于该公司非常一致的业绩记录，市场似乎给予了该公司更高的估值。</blockquote> It took very little smoothing to set historical revenue growth at a consistent 17.9% per year, and as for the earnings margin, net income was very close to 13.55% of revenue almost every year. The only two exceptions were one negative, in 2014, and one positive, in 2020, where the margin was 19.6%.<blockquote>几乎不需要任何平滑就将历史收入增长率设定在每年17.9%，至于利润率，净利润几乎每年都非常接近收入的13.55%。仅有的两个例外是2014年的负利率和2020年的正利率，利润率为19.6%。</blockquote> As the year 2021 has progressed,PayPal has dropped significantly, all the way down to $200. At this price, the $425 target for 2025 would give you a compound annual return of 20.1%. I can think of three possible explanations for this collapse:<blockquote>随着2021年的进展，PayPal大幅下跌，一路跌至200美元。按照这个价格，2025年425美元的目标将为您带来20.1%的复合年回报率。对于这种崩溃，我可以想到三种可能的解释：</blockquote> a) The price was ahead of its time, and 2020 over performance got investors thinking growth had accelerated and that the price would go higher than we were forecasting. Ultimately, an investment relying on growth that has not yet materialized requires higher returns, and if the company is growing 18%, the investor wants to make at least 18% on their investment.<blockquote>a)价格领先于时代，2020年的表现让投资者认为增长已经加速，价格将高于我们的预期。最终，依赖尚未实现的增长的投资需要更高的回报，如果公司增长18%，投资者希望从投资中获得至少18%的回报。</blockquote> b) There is a perceived risk of earnings growth slowing down significantly based on the company's performance after looking at financial reports from the first three quarters of 2021.<blockquote>b)在查看2021年前三季度的财务报告后，根据公司的业绩，认为盈利增长存在大幅放缓的风险。</blockquote> c) There is a perceived risk of growth slowing down significantly due to factors outside of the company's financial performance, based on a qualitative analysis of the company and its addressable market.<blockquote>c)根据对公司及其目标市场的定性分析，由于公司财务业绩以外的因素，存在增长显着放缓的风险。</blockquote> If the correct answer is A, this is a great investment. If the logic feels compelling enough you should buy now and enjoy your 20% return over the years. I am going to focus on the other two scenarios, where we need to think about whether the business itself is actually in trouble.<blockquote>如果正确答案是A，这是一项伟大的投资。如果逻辑足够令人信服，您应该现在购买并享受多年来20%的回报。我将重点讨论另外两种情况，在这两种情况下，我们需要考虑企业本身是否真的陷入了困境。</blockquote> 2021 Financial Performance<blockquote>二零二一年财务表现</blockquote> Our previous analysis onPayPal was based on revenue and net income, as per GAAP figures up to 2020. Here I am going to look at the results of the first three quarters of 2021 to see if the results are disappointing.<blockquote>我们之前对PayPal的分析是基于截至2020年的GAAP数据的收入和净利润。这里我要看看2021年前三季度的业绩，看看业绩是否令人失望。</blockquote> First off, we have revenue growth. Indeed, quarter on quarter it doesn't look great, but this is not uncommon inPayPal's history of seasonality. If you look at the chart below, you can see that revenue grows the most in the fourth quarter, always drops in the first (QoQ), and has mixed results from the first to the third. Also, to continue on the 17.9% growth trend, revenue in the fourth quarter would only have to be %6.65 billion less than 8% higher than in the third quarter.<blockquote>首先，我们有收入增长。事实上，环比来看，情况并不乐观，但这在PayPal的季节性历史中并不罕见。如果你看下图，你可以看到第四季度收入增长最多，第一季度（环比）总是下降，并且从第一季度到第三季度的结果好坏参半。此外，要继续保持17.9%的增长趋势，第四季度的收入只需达到66.5亿美元，比第三季度增长不到8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fba8cbaa13348012cc020a72a4ecd1c\" tg-width=\"283\" tg-height=\"170\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。</blockquote> It appears that all is good with revenue growth so far and 2021 looks to deliver once again on the near 20% revenue growth figure. Let's take a look at earnings. So far in the first 3 quarters of 2021, earnings have been, just as in 2020, much higher than the previous trend of 13.5% of revenue. So far, earnings are between 17.5 and 19% of revenue, with an average of 18.3%. It is true that this was 19.6% in 2020, but it also means that we can no longer reasonably consider 2020 an anomaly in that respect.<blockquote>到目前为止，收入增长似乎一切顺利，2021年有望再次实现近20%的收入增长。我们来看看收益。到目前为止，2021年前3个季度的盈利与2020年一样，远高于之前占收入13.5%的趋势。到目前为止，盈利占收入的17.5%至19%之间，平均为18.3%。诚然，2020年这一比例为19.6%，但这也意味着我们不能再合理地认为2020年在这方面是一个异常现象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65fdec19cf0bd680067fed0f3ac34f92\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"290\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。2021年的数字是基于前3个季度的估计。</blockquote> Looking at these figures, the only thing that could worry investors is year-on-year growth rates. If you look at the table below you can see the growth rates of revenue and earnings for&nbsp;Q3 2021, YTD or YoY and with the 1-year growth rate or the 2-year CAGR.<blockquote>从这些数字来看，投资者唯一可能担心的是同比增长率。如果您查看下表，您可以看到2021年第三季度、年初至今或同比的收入和收益增长率以及1年增长率或2年CAGR。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c30583b007f9682b8b5c78496897f61d\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"145\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。</blockquote> This gives a clue of what might be the problem, as year-on-year growth rates in the third quarter look significantly worse than average, especially in earnings growth. However, if you take into account that 2020 Q3 was an exceptionally good quarter, it seems likePayPal is being punished for how good results were in 2020. If you look at the 2-year growth, results seem great, especially in earnings (it is also true that Q3 2019 was exceptionally bad, but one argument is as valid as the other).<blockquote>这为问题可能出在哪里提供了线索，因为第三季度的同比增长率看起来明显低于平均水平，尤其是在盈利增长方面。然而，如果你考虑到2020年第三季度是一个非常好的季度，那么PayPal似乎因2020年的良好业绩而受到惩罚。如果你看看两年的增长，结果似乎很好，尤其是在盈利方面（2019年第三季度确实异常糟糕，但一个论点和另一个一样有效）。</blockquote> To illustrate this point, imagine that net income had been lower in 2020. The chart below contains the same figures as the one before, except that 2020 net income has been arbitrarily reduced to fit a more growing pattern.<blockquote>为了说明这一点，想象一下2020年净利润较低。下图包含与上一张相同的数字，只是2020年净利润被任意减少以适应更增长的模式。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b14c61672e1db2d56752a6a07d858b3\" tg-width=\"483\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. *The figure from 2014 has been removed and the net income figure from 2020 has been reduced to illustrate the point explained above. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。*二零一四年的数字已删除，而二零二零年的净收入数字已减少，以说明上文所解释的要点。2021年的数字是基于前3个季度的估计。</blockquote> The result would be a much more promising-looking trend altogether. When taking short-term growth figures into account when valuing a company one should wonder if they are punishing bad results or actually punishing good results. All considered it doesn't seem like there is a reasonable cause in the observed financial performance ofPayPal that should make you think prospects are worse than they were 9 months ago.<blockquote>结果将是一个看起来更有希望的趋势。当在评估一家公司时考虑短期增长数据时，人们应该怀疑他们是在惩罚糟糕的结果还是实际上在惩罚好的结果。总的来说，观察到的PayPal财务表现似乎没有合理的原因让您认为前景比9个月前更糟糕。</blockquote> Is market growth a concern?<blockquote>市场增长令人担忧吗？</blockquote> With that said, the only other possible explanation is that, indeed, there are external factors that will prevent&nbsp;PayPal from expanding at the previously perceived rate. The stock was recently&nbsp;downgraded by Bernstein, claiming \"market share growth concerns\". The stock has slid over 30% since it reached an ATH at $300 makingPayPal's valuation that much more attractive. But how does this weigh against concerns over market growth?<blockquote>话虽如此，唯一其他可能的解释是，确实有外部因素会阻止PayPal以之前认为的速度扩张。该股最近被伯恩斯坦下调评级，声称“市场份额增长担忧”。自达到300美元的ATH以来，该股已下跌超过30%，这使得PayPal的估值更具吸引力。但这如何抵消对市场增长的担忧呢？</blockquote> \"Fintech\" is no longer a novel concept, and in the last few years, we have seen hundreds if not thousands of companies come out with similar versions of whatPayPal offers. To say the market is saturated, might even be an understatement, butPayPal remains the king of the hill.<blockquote>“金融科技”不再是一个新颖的概念，在过去几年中，我们已经看到数百家甚至数千家公司推出了PayPal提供的类似版本。说市场已经饱和甚至可能是一种保守的说法，但PayPal仍然是山中之王。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/462ce82e5652c8762836c4ef98dcdee5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: datanyze.com<blockquote>资料来源：datanyze.com</blockquote> In terms of Payment Processing Software,PayPal has over 50% of the market, and I say that because Braintree, which takes the fifth position, is also owned byPayPal. The problemPayPal faces though, isn't coming from the hundreds of startups and newly IPO'd companies, but by the large players which we also see on his list.<blockquote>在支付处理软件方面，PayPal拥有超过50%的市场份额，我这么说是因为排名第五的Braintree也归PayPal所有。然而，PayPal面临的问题并不是来自数百家初创公司和新上市的公司，而是来自我们在他的名单上也看到的大公司。</blockquote> This includes AmazonPay, Shopify Inc.'s (SHOP) ShopPay and even Google Pay. Arguably, some of these services have an advantage, in that their payment offerings complement other services. Shopify, for example, incentivizes its users and merchants to use its payment processing platforms, and Google has the advantage of being deeply embedded in a lot of the things we do.<blockquote>这包括AmazonPay、Shopify Inc.(SHOP)的ShopPay甚至Google Pay。可以说，其中一些服务具有优势，因为它们的支付产品补充了其他服务。例如，Shopify激励其用户和商家使用其支付处理平台，而谷歌的优势在于深入参与我们所做的许多事情。</blockquote> In this regard, Shopify and Amazon, for example, have a big advantage, in that they control where much of the money online is spent and can use this to their advantage. However, the payment system is not just limited to eCommerce.PayPal has a presence in many other areas, such as international transfers/transactions and physical payments.PayPal can be used as a bank, and there are also advantages to being a complete financial service focused company, just like there are advantages to having an ecosystem of buyers and sellers on your platform.<blockquote>例如，在这方面，Shopify和亚马逊有很大的优势，因为他们控制着大部分在线资金的花费，并可以利用这一点。然而，支付系统不仅仅局限于电子商务。PayPal在许多其他领域都有业务，如国际转账/交易和实物支付。PayPal可以用作银行，作为一家专注于完整金融服务的公司也有优势，就像在你的平台上拥有买家和卖家的生态系统也有优势一样。</blockquote> Yes, the market is saturated, and growth will become a challenge, but I still believe thatPayPal can succeed long-term and I'll explain why.<blockquote>是的，市场已经饱和，增长将成为一个挑战，但我仍然相信PayPal可以长期成功，我会解释原因。</blockquote> Two more reasons I will hold on toPayPal<blockquote>还有两个我会坚持下去的理由PayPal</blockquote> My analysis continues to support thatPayPal is on track to deliver the growth and returns I expected weeks ago. In this regard,PayPal offers growth at a reasonable price. It is a profitable and well-established company that is going nowhere.<blockquote>我的分析继续支持PayPal有望实现我几周前预期的增长和回报。在这方面，PayPal以合理的价格提供增长。这是一家盈利且信誉良好的公司，但却一事无成。</blockquote> More specifically though, two factors make me especially bullish onPayPal; Venmo and the power of its Balance Sheet.<blockquote>更具体地说，有两个因素让我特别看好PayPal；Venmo及其资产负债表的力量。</blockquote> Starting with Venmo, this is perhaps the biggest reason why I thinkPayPal still holds plenty of value and growth potential. Venmo is one of the most popular payment Apps in the United States. In 2020 over&nbsp;$159 billion in transactions&nbsp;were processed through Venmo in 2020, and the App is on track to deliver $900 million in revenues in 2021 according to the latest earnings call.<blockquote>从Venmo开始，这也许是我认为PayPal仍然拥有巨大价值和增长潜力的最大原因。Venmo是美国最受欢迎的支付应用之一。根据最新的收益看涨期权，2020年通过Venmo处理了超过1590亿美元的交易，该应用程序有望在2021年实现9亿美元的收入。</blockquote> But Venmo is barely scratching the surface of what it can achieve, both in terms of growth and monetization. When it comes to the latter, we can see that Venmo can still come a long way in terms of monetization if we compare it to Square Inc.'s (SQ) CashApp.According to estimates, CashApp produced $54 per user in 2020, while Venmo only made $12 from each active user. There are slight differences in transaction costs, but most of this comes from the fact that CashApp is used more for cryptocurrency transactions. This is something Venmo can easily replicate.<blockquote>但无论是在增长还是货币化方面，Venmo都只是触及了其所能实现的表面。谈到后者，如果我们将Venmo与Square Inc.(SQ)的CashApp进行比较，我们可以看到Venmo在货币化方面仍有很长的路要走。据估计，CashApp在2020年为每个用户带来了54美元的收入，而Venmo仅从每个活跃用户身上获得了12美元的收入。交易成本略有差异，但这大部分来自于CashApp更多地用于加密货币交易。这是Venmo可以轻松复制的。</blockquote> In terms of growth though, Venmo can go much farther. Originally, Venmo was conceived as a peer-to-peer payment system, but this is quickly moving to businesses too. Amazon.com (AMZN)&nbsp;will be accepting Venmo payments&nbsp;starting in 2022, and I believe this will see significant success.<blockquote>不过，就增长而言，Venmo可以走得更远。最初，Venmo被认为是一个点对点支付系统，但这也很快转移到企业。亚马逊(AMZN)将从2022年开始接受Venmo支付，我相信这将取得巨大成功。</blockquote> Venmo has a place in the mobile phones of 65 million people, and this is somethingPayPal can leverage to its advantage moving forward.<blockquote>Venmo在6500万人的手机中占有一席之地，这是PayPal可以利用的优势。</blockquote> The other big reason I will continue to holdPayPal is its incredible Balance Sheet, and all the growth opportunities this opens.PayPal has $13.29 billion in cash and negative net debt. It has a much stronger balance sheet than its most established peers, such as Mastercard Corporation (MA). It's now time forPayPal to put this money to good use to expand its platform, especially internationally, something we already got a taste of in the last investor presentation.<blockquote>我将继续持有PayPal的另一个重要原因是其令人难以置信的资产负债表，以及由此带来的所有增长机会。PayPal拥有132.9亿美元现金和负净债务。它的资产负债表比万事达卡公司（MA）等最成熟的同行要强大得多。现在是PayPal充分利用这笔资金来扩展其平台的时候了，特别是在国际上，我们已经在上次投资者演示中尝到了这一点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3484de41ef449aa085877ee9374fa00\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"648\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Investor Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：投资者介绍</blockquote> On September 7th, it was announced thatPayPal was acquiring Paidy, which uses artificial intelligence to find out the creditworthiness of its users and offers payment instalment plans. This is just one example of howPayPal can enter new markets and expand its footprint. Much like I argued before with Shopify,PayPal can now leverage Paidy to also push its other payment platforms into the Japanese market. I am very excited to see what other acquisitionsPayPal will make.<blockquote>9月7日，PayPal宣布收购Paidy，该公司使用人工智能来了解用户的信用度，并提供支付分期付款计划。这只是PayPal如何进入新市场并扩大其足迹的一个例子。就像我之前与Shopify争论的那样，PayPal现在可以利用Paidy将其其他支付平台推向日本市场。我很高兴看到PayPal还会进行哪些其他收购。</blockquote> Takeaway<blockquote>外卖</blockquote> In conclusion, and referring back to the thesis summary, I see no material reason why shares ofPayPal should continue to depreciate. Exogenous factors haven't changed, competition has always been tough and the company is still on track to deliver on its medium and long term growth targets.PayPal offers investors growth at a reasonable price, and that is hard to come by these days.<blockquote>总之，回到论文摘要，我认为PayPal的股价没有理由继续贬值。外生因素没有改变，竞争一直很激烈，公司仍有望实现中长期增长目标。PayPal以合理的价格为投资者提供增长，而这在当今很难实现。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4470923-paypal-time-to-go-all-in\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4470923-paypal-time-to-go-all-in","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158506816","content_text":"Summary\n\nPayPal has fallen over 30% since its ATH due to poor guidance and increased competition concerns.\nI argue that PayPal is still on track to achieve its long-term goals, and competition, albeit fierce, is manageable.\nThe potential of Venmo and PayPal's future acquisition are what keep me coming back for more.\n\nSouth_agency/E+ via Getty Images\nThesis Summary\nSeven months ago, we analyzedPayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) and concluded that our target price of $425 for 2025 made the $266 purchase give a compound return of 10.5% per year. At the time, we were forecasting revenue, earnings, and PE ratios to calculate the target price.\nAlthough our forecasted PE ratio based on its relation to Earnings suggested the price was a little high for that point in time, it seemed that the market was granting the company a higher valuation given its remarkably consistent track record.\nIt took very little smoothing to set historical revenue growth at a consistent 17.9% per year, and as for the earnings margin, net income was very close to 13.55% of revenue almost every year. The only two exceptions were one negative, in 2014, and one positive, in 2020, where the margin was 19.6%.\nAs the year 2021 has progressed,PayPal has dropped significantly, all the way down to $200. At this price, the $425 target for 2025 would give you a compound annual return of 20.1%. I can think of three possible explanations for this collapse:\na) The price was ahead of its time, and 2020 over performance got investors thinking growth had accelerated and that the price would go higher than we were forecasting. Ultimately, an investment relying on growth that has not yet materialized requires higher returns, and if the company is growing 18%, the investor wants to make at least 18% on their investment.\nb) There is a perceived risk of earnings growth slowing down significantly based on the company's performance after looking at financial reports from the first three quarters of 2021.\nc) There is a perceived risk of growth slowing down significantly due to factors outside of the company's financial performance, based on a qualitative analysis of the company and its addressable market.\nIf the correct answer is A, this is a great investment. If the logic feels compelling enough you should buy now and enjoy your 20% return over the years. I am going to focus on the other two scenarios, where we need to think about whether the business itself is actually in trouble.\n2021 Financial Performance\nOur previous analysis onPayPal was based on revenue and net income, as per GAAP figures up to 2020. Here I am going to look at the results of the first three quarters of 2021 to see if the results are disappointing.\nFirst off, we have revenue growth. Indeed, quarter on quarter it doesn't look great, but this is not uncommon inPayPal's history of seasonality. If you look at the chart below, you can see that revenue grows the most in the fourth quarter, always drops in the first (QoQ), and has mixed results from the first to the third. Also, to continue on the 17.9% growth trend, revenue in the fourth quarter would only have to be %6.65 billion less than 8% higher than in the third quarter.\nSource: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions.\nIt appears that all is good with revenue growth so far and 2021 looks to deliver once again on the near 20% revenue growth figure. Let's take a look at earnings. So far in the first 3 quarters of 2021, earnings have been, just as in 2020, much higher than the previous trend of 13.5% of revenue. So far, earnings are between 17.5 and 19% of revenue, with an average of 18.3%. It is true that this was 19.6% in 2020, but it also means that we can no longer reasonably consider 2020 an anomaly in that respect.\nSource: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.\nLooking at these figures, the only thing that could worry investors is year-on-year growth rates. If you look at the table below you can see the growth rates of revenue and earnings for Q3 2021, YTD or YoY and with the 1-year growth rate or the 2-year CAGR.\nSource: Author's work based on financial reports.\nThis gives a clue of what might be the problem, as year-on-year growth rates in the third quarter look significantly worse than average, especially in earnings growth. However, if you take into account that 2020 Q3 was an exceptionally good quarter, it seems likePayPal is being punished for how good results were in 2020. If you look at the 2-year growth, results seem great, especially in earnings (it is also true that Q3 2019 was exceptionally bad, but one argument is as valid as the other).\nTo illustrate this point, imagine that net income had been lower in 2020. The chart below contains the same figures as the one before, except that 2020 net income has been arbitrarily reduced to fit a more growing pattern.\nSource: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. *The figure from 2014 has been removed and the net income figure from 2020 has been reduced to illustrate the point explained above. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.\nThe result would be a much more promising-looking trend altogether. When taking short-term growth figures into account when valuing a company one should wonder if they are punishing bad results or actually punishing good results. All considered it doesn't seem like there is a reasonable cause in the observed financial performance ofPayPal that should make you think prospects are worse than they were 9 months ago.\nIs market growth a concern?\nWith that said, the only other possible explanation is that, indeed, there are external factors that will prevent PayPal from expanding at the previously perceived rate. The stock was recently downgraded by Bernstein, claiming \"market share growth concerns\". The stock has slid over 30% since it reached an ATH at $300 makingPayPal's valuation that much more attractive. But how does this weigh against concerns over market growth?\n\"Fintech\" is no longer a novel concept, and in the last few years, we have seen hundreds if not thousands of companies come out with similar versions of whatPayPal offers. To say the market is saturated, might even be an understatement, butPayPal remains the king of the hill.\nSource: datanyze.com\nIn terms of Payment Processing Software,PayPal has over 50% of the market, and I say that because Braintree, which takes the fifth position, is also owned byPayPal. The problemPayPal faces though, isn't coming from the hundreds of startups and newly IPO'd companies, but by the large players which we also see on his list.\nThis includes AmazonPay, Shopify Inc.'s (SHOP) ShopPay and even Google Pay. Arguably, some of these services have an advantage, in that their payment offerings complement other services. Shopify, for example, incentivizes its users and merchants to use its payment processing platforms, and Google has the advantage of being deeply embedded in a lot of the things we do.\nIn this regard, Shopify and Amazon, for example, have a big advantage, in that they control where much of the money online is spent and can use this to their advantage. However, the payment system is not just limited to eCommerce.PayPal has a presence in many other areas, such as international transfers/transactions and physical payments.PayPal can be used as a bank, and there are also advantages to being a complete financial service focused company, just like there are advantages to having an ecosystem of buyers and sellers on your platform.\nYes, the market is saturated, and growth will become a challenge, but I still believe thatPayPal can succeed long-term and I'll explain why.\nTwo more reasons I will hold on toPayPal\nMy analysis continues to support thatPayPal is on track to deliver the growth and returns I expected weeks ago. In this regard,PayPal offers growth at a reasonable price. It is a profitable and well-established company that is going nowhere.\nMore specifically though, two factors make me especially bullish onPayPal; Venmo and the power of its Balance Sheet.\nStarting with Venmo, this is perhaps the biggest reason why I thinkPayPal still holds plenty of value and growth potential. Venmo is one of the most popular payment Apps in the United States. In 2020 over $159 billion in transactions were processed through Venmo in 2020, and the App is on track to deliver $900 million in revenues in 2021 according to the latest earnings call.\nBut Venmo is barely scratching the surface of what it can achieve, both in terms of growth and monetization. When it comes to the latter, we can see that Venmo can still come a long way in terms of monetization if we compare it to Square Inc.'s (SQ) CashApp.According to estimates, CashApp produced $54 per user in 2020, while Venmo only made $12 from each active user. There are slight differences in transaction costs, but most of this comes from the fact that CashApp is used more for cryptocurrency transactions. This is something Venmo can easily replicate.\nIn terms of growth though, Venmo can go much farther. Originally, Venmo was conceived as a peer-to-peer payment system, but this is quickly moving to businesses too. Amazon.com (AMZN) will be accepting Venmo payments starting in 2022, and I believe this will see significant success.\nVenmo has a place in the mobile phones of 65 million people, and this is somethingPayPal can leverage to its advantage moving forward.\nThe other big reason I will continue to holdPayPal is its incredible Balance Sheet, and all the growth opportunities this opens.PayPal has $13.29 billion in cash and negative net debt. It has a much stronger balance sheet than its most established peers, such as Mastercard Corporation (MA). It's now time forPayPal to put this money to good use to expand its platform, especially internationally, something we already got a taste of in the last investor presentation.\nSource: Investor Presentation\nOn September 7th, it was announced thatPayPal was acquiring Paidy, which uses artificial intelligence to find out the creditworthiness of its users and offers payment instalment plans. This is just one example of howPayPal can enter new markets and expand its footprint. Much like I argued before with Shopify,PayPal can now leverage Paidy to also push its other payment platforms into the Japanese market. I am very excited to see what other acquisitionsPayPal will make.\nTakeaway\nIn conclusion, and referring back to the thesis summary, I see no material reason why shares ofPayPal should continue to depreciate. Exogenous factors haven't changed, competition has always been tough and the company is still on track to deliver on its medium and long term growth targets.PayPal offers investors growth at a reasonable price, and that is hard to come by these days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":875929087,"gmtCreate":1637595250667,"gmtModify":1637595250745,"author":{"id":"3572310408162611","authorId":"3572310408162611","name":"Vanillin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57da3673038af147111405348d5fa098","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572310408162611","authorIdStr":"3572310408162611"},"htmlText":"I still think Paypal is a good long term hold.","listText":"I still think Paypal is a good long term hold.","text":"I still think Paypal is a good long term hold.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875929087","repostId":1158506816,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1158506816","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637550842,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158506816?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-22 11:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal: Time To Go All In<blockquote>PayPal：是时候全力以赴了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158506816","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPayPal has fallen over 30% since its ATH due to poor guidance and increased competition con","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>PayPal has fallen over 30% since its ATH due to poor guidance and increased competition concerns.</li> <li>I argue that PayPal is still on track to achieve its long-term goals, and competition, albeit fierce, is manageable.</li> <li>The potential of Venmo and PayPal's future acquisition are what keep me coming back for more.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71b7d55858c35eda92a04deae062ef8b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">South_agency/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>由于指导不力和竞争担忧加剧，PayPal自ATH以来股价已下跌超过30%。</li><li>我认为PayPal仍在实现其长期目标的轨道上，竞争尽管激烈，但是可控的。</li><li>Venmo和PayPal未来收购的潜力让我不断回来购买更多。</li></ul>South_agency/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> Thesis Summary<blockquote>论文摘要</blockquote> Seven months ago, we analyzedPayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) and concluded that our target price of $425 for 2025 made the $266 purchase give a compound return of 10.5% per year. At the time, we were forecasting revenue, earnings, and PE ratios to calculate the target price.<blockquote>七个月前，我们分析了PayPal Holdings Inc.(PYPL)，得出的结论是，我们2025年425美元的目标价使得266美元的收购每年复合回报率为10.5%。当时，我们正在预测收入、盈利和市盈率来计算目标价。</blockquote> Although our forecasted PE ratio based on its relation to Earnings suggested the price was a little high for that point in time, it seemed that the market was granting the company a higher valuation given its remarkably consistent track record.<blockquote>尽管我们根据其与收益的关系预测市盈率表明当时的价格有点高，但鉴于该公司非常一致的业绩记录，市场似乎给予了该公司更高的估值。</blockquote> It took very little smoothing to set historical revenue growth at a consistent 17.9% per year, and as for the earnings margin, net income was very close to 13.55% of revenue almost every year. The only two exceptions were one negative, in 2014, and one positive, in 2020, where the margin was 19.6%.<blockquote>几乎不需要任何平滑就将历史收入增长率设定在每年17.9%，至于利润率，净利润几乎每年都非常接近收入的13.55%。仅有的两个例外是2014年的负利率和2020年的正利率，利润率为19.6%。</blockquote> As the year 2021 has progressed,PayPal has dropped significantly, all the way down to $200. At this price, the $425 target for 2025 would give you a compound annual return of 20.1%. I can think of three possible explanations for this collapse:<blockquote>随着2021年的进展，PayPal大幅下跌，一路跌至200美元。按照这个价格，2025年425美元的目标将为您带来20.1%的复合年回报率。对于这种崩溃，我可以想到三种可能的解释：</blockquote> a) The price was ahead of its time, and 2020 over performance got investors thinking growth had accelerated and that the price would go higher than we were forecasting. Ultimately, an investment relying on growth that has not yet materialized requires higher returns, and if the company is growing 18%, the investor wants to make at least 18% on their investment.<blockquote>a)价格领先于时代，2020年的表现让投资者认为增长已经加速，价格将高于我们的预期。最终，依赖尚未实现的增长的投资需要更高的回报，如果公司增长18%，投资者希望从投资中获得至少18%的回报。</blockquote> b) There is a perceived risk of earnings growth slowing down significantly based on the company's performance after looking at financial reports from the first three quarters of 2021.<blockquote>b)在查看2021年前三季度的财务报告后，根据公司的业绩，认为盈利增长存在大幅放缓的风险。</blockquote> c) There is a perceived risk of growth slowing down significantly due to factors outside of the company's financial performance, based on a qualitative analysis of the company and its addressable market.<blockquote>c)根据对公司及其目标市场的定性分析，由于公司财务业绩以外的因素，存在增长显着放缓的风险。</blockquote> If the correct answer is A, this is a great investment. If the logic feels compelling enough you should buy now and enjoy your 20% return over the years. I am going to focus on the other two scenarios, where we need to think about whether the business itself is actually in trouble.<blockquote>如果正确答案是A，这是一项伟大的投资。如果逻辑足够令人信服，您应该现在购买并享受多年来20%的回报。我将重点讨论另外两种情况，在这两种情况下，我们需要考虑企业本身是否真的陷入了困境。</blockquote> 2021 Financial Performance<blockquote>二零二一年财务表现</blockquote> Our previous analysis onPayPal was based on revenue and net income, as per GAAP figures up to 2020. Here I am going to look at the results of the first three quarters of 2021 to see if the results are disappointing.<blockquote>我们之前对PayPal的分析是基于截至2020年的GAAP数据的收入和净利润。这里我要看看2021年前三季度的业绩，看看业绩是否令人失望。</blockquote> First off, we have revenue growth. Indeed, quarter on quarter it doesn't look great, but this is not uncommon inPayPal's history of seasonality. If you look at the chart below, you can see that revenue grows the most in the fourth quarter, always drops in the first (QoQ), and has mixed results from the first to the third. Also, to continue on the 17.9% growth trend, revenue in the fourth quarter would only have to be %6.65 billion less than 8% higher than in the third quarter.<blockquote>首先，我们有收入增长。事实上，环比来看，情况并不乐观，但这在PayPal的季节性历史中并不罕见。如果你看下图，你可以看到第四季度收入增长最多，第一季度（环比）总是下降，并且从第一季度到第三季度的结果好坏参半。此外，要继续保持17.9%的增长趋势，第四季度的收入只需达到66.5亿美元，比第三季度增长不到8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fba8cbaa13348012cc020a72a4ecd1c\" tg-width=\"283\" tg-height=\"170\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。</blockquote> It appears that all is good with revenue growth so far and 2021 looks to deliver once again on the near 20% revenue growth figure. Let's take a look at earnings. So far in the first 3 quarters of 2021, earnings have been, just as in 2020, much higher than the previous trend of 13.5% of revenue. So far, earnings are between 17.5 and 19% of revenue, with an average of 18.3%. It is true that this was 19.6% in 2020, but it also means that we can no longer reasonably consider 2020 an anomaly in that respect.<blockquote>到目前为止，收入增长似乎一切顺利，2021年有望再次实现近20%的收入增长。我们来看看收益。到目前为止，2021年前3个季度的盈利与2020年一样，远高于之前占收入13.5%的趋势。到目前为止，盈利占收入的17.5%至19%之间，平均为18.3%。诚然，2020年这一比例为19.6%，但这也意味着我们不能再合理地认为2020年在这方面是一个异常现象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65fdec19cf0bd680067fed0f3ac34f92\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"290\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。2021年的数字是基于前3个季度的估计。</blockquote> Looking at these figures, the only thing that could worry investors is year-on-year growth rates. If you look at the table below you can see the growth rates of revenue and earnings for&nbsp;Q3 2021, YTD or YoY and with the 1-year growth rate or the 2-year CAGR.<blockquote>从这些数字来看，投资者唯一可能担心的是同比增长率。如果您查看下表，您可以看到2021年第三季度、年初至今或同比的收入和收益增长率以及1年增长率或2年CAGR。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c30583b007f9682b8b5c78496897f61d\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"145\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。</blockquote> This gives a clue of what might be the problem, as year-on-year growth rates in the third quarter look significantly worse than average, especially in earnings growth. However, if you take into account that 2020 Q3 was an exceptionally good quarter, it seems likePayPal is being punished for how good results were in 2020. If you look at the 2-year growth, results seem great, especially in earnings (it is also true that Q3 2019 was exceptionally bad, but one argument is as valid as the other).<blockquote>这为问题可能出在哪里提供了线索，因为第三季度的同比增长率看起来明显低于平均水平，尤其是在盈利增长方面。然而，如果你考虑到2020年第三季度是一个非常好的季度，那么PayPal似乎因2020年的良好业绩而受到惩罚。如果你看看两年的增长，结果似乎很好，尤其是在盈利方面（2019年第三季度确实异常糟糕，但一个论点和另一个一样有效）。</blockquote> To illustrate this point, imagine that net income had been lower in 2020. The chart below contains the same figures as the one before, except that 2020 net income has been arbitrarily reduced to fit a more growing pattern.<blockquote>为了说明这一点，想象一下2020年净利润较低。下图包含与上一张相同的数字，只是2020年净利润被任意减少以适应更增长的模式。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b14c61672e1db2d56752a6a07d858b3\" tg-width=\"483\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. *The figure from 2014 has been removed and the net income figure from 2020 has been reduced to illustrate the point explained above. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。*二零一四年的数字已删除，而二零二零年的净收入数字已减少，以说明上文所解释的要点。2021年的数字是基于前3个季度的估计。</blockquote> The result would be a much more promising-looking trend altogether. When taking short-term growth figures into account when valuing a company one should wonder if they are punishing bad results or actually punishing good results. All considered it doesn't seem like there is a reasonable cause in the observed financial performance ofPayPal that should make you think prospects are worse than they were 9 months ago.<blockquote>结果将是一个看起来更有希望的趋势。当在评估一家公司时考虑短期增长数据时，人们应该怀疑他们是在惩罚糟糕的结果还是实际上在惩罚好的结果。总的来说，观察到的PayPal财务表现似乎没有合理的原因让您认为前景比9个月前更糟糕。</blockquote> Is market growth a concern?<blockquote>市场增长令人担忧吗？</blockquote> With that said, the only other possible explanation is that, indeed, there are external factors that will prevent&nbsp;PayPal from expanding at the previously perceived rate. The stock was recently&nbsp;downgraded by Bernstein, claiming \"market share growth concerns\". The stock has slid over 30% since it reached an ATH at $300 makingPayPal's valuation that much more attractive. But how does this weigh against concerns over market growth?<blockquote>话虽如此，唯一其他可能的解释是，确实有外部因素会阻止PayPal以之前认为的速度扩张。该股最近被伯恩斯坦下调评级，声称“市场份额增长担忧”。自达到300美元的ATH以来，该股已下跌超过30%，这使得PayPal的估值更具吸引力。但这如何抵消对市场增长的担忧呢？</blockquote> \"Fintech\" is no longer a novel concept, and in the last few years, we have seen hundreds if not thousands of companies come out with similar versions of whatPayPal offers. To say the market is saturated, might even be an understatement, butPayPal remains the king of the hill.<blockquote>“金融科技”不再是一个新颖的概念，在过去几年中，我们已经看到数百家甚至数千家公司推出了PayPal提供的类似版本。说市场已经饱和甚至可能是一种保守的说法，但PayPal仍然是山中之王。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/462ce82e5652c8762836c4ef98dcdee5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: datanyze.com<blockquote>资料来源：datanyze.com</blockquote> In terms of Payment Processing Software,PayPal has over 50% of the market, and I say that because Braintree, which takes the fifth position, is also owned byPayPal. The problemPayPal faces though, isn't coming from the hundreds of startups and newly IPO'd companies, but by the large players which we also see on his list.<blockquote>在支付处理软件方面，PayPal拥有超过50%的市场份额，我这么说是因为排名第五的Braintree也归PayPal所有。然而，PayPal面临的问题并不是来自数百家初创公司和新上市的公司，而是来自我们在他的名单上也看到的大公司。</blockquote> This includes AmazonPay, Shopify Inc.'s (SHOP) ShopPay and even Google Pay. Arguably, some of these services have an advantage, in that their payment offerings complement other services. Shopify, for example, incentivizes its users and merchants to use its payment processing platforms, and Google has the advantage of being deeply embedded in a lot of the things we do.<blockquote>这包括AmazonPay、Shopify Inc.(SHOP)的ShopPay甚至Google Pay。可以说，其中一些服务具有优势，因为它们的支付产品补充了其他服务。例如，Shopify激励其用户和商家使用其支付处理平台，而谷歌的优势在于深入参与我们所做的许多事情。</blockquote> In this regard, Shopify and Amazon, for example, have a big advantage, in that they control where much of the money online is spent and can use this to their advantage. However, the payment system is not just limited to eCommerce.PayPal has a presence in many other areas, such as international transfers/transactions and physical payments.PayPal can be used as a bank, and there are also advantages to being a complete financial service focused company, just like there are advantages to having an ecosystem of buyers and sellers on your platform.<blockquote>例如，在这方面，Shopify和亚马逊有很大的优势，因为他们控制着大部分在线资金的花费，并可以利用这一点。然而，支付系统不仅仅局限于电子商务。PayPal在许多其他领域都有业务，如国际转账/交易和实物支付。PayPal可以用作银行，作为一家专注于完整金融服务的公司也有优势，就像在你的平台上拥有买家和卖家的生态系统也有优势一样。</blockquote> Yes, the market is saturated, and growth will become a challenge, but I still believe thatPayPal can succeed long-term and I'll explain why.<blockquote>是的，市场已经饱和，增长将成为一个挑战，但我仍然相信PayPal可以长期成功，我会解释原因。</blockquote> Two more reasons I will hold on toPayPal<blockquote>还有两个我会坚持下去的理由PayPal</blockquote> My analysis continues to support thatPayPal is on track to deliver the growth and returns I expected weeks ago. In this regard,PayPal offers growth at a reasonable price. It is a profitable and well-established company that is going nowhere.<blockquote>我的分析继续支持PayPal有望实现我几周前预期的增长和回报。在这方面，PayPal以合理的价格提供增长。这是一家盈利且信誉良好的公司，但却一事无成。</blockquote> More specifically though, two factors make me especially bullish onPayPal; Venmo and the power of its Balance Sheet.<blockquote>更具体地说，有两个因素让我特别看好PayPal；Venmo及其资产负债表的力量。</blockquote> Starting with Venmo, this is perhaps the biggest reason why I thinkPayPal still holds plenty of value and growth potential. Venmo is one of the most popular payment Apps in the United States. In 2020 over&nbsp;$159 billion in transactions&nbsp;were processed through Venmo in 2020, and the App is on track to deliver $900 million in revenues in 2021 according to the latest earnings call.<blockquote>从Venmo开始，这也许是我认为PayPal仍然拥有巨大价值和增长潜力的最大原因。Venmo是美国最受欢迎的支付应用之一。根据最新的收益看涨期权，2020年通过Venmo处理了超过1590亿美元的交易，该应用程序有望在2021年实现9亿美元的收入。</blockquote> But Venmo is barely scratching the surface of what it can achieve, both in terms of growth and monetization. When it comes to the latter, we can see that Venmo can still come a long way in terms of monetization if we compare it to Square Inc.'s (SQ) CashApp.According to estimates, CashApp produced $54 per user in 2020, while Venmo only made $12 from each active user. There are slight differences in transaction costs, but most of this comes from the fact that CashApp is used more for cryptocurrency transactions. This is something Venmo can easily replicate.<blockquote>但无论是在增长还是货币化方面，Venmo都只是触及了其所能实现的表面。谈到后者，如果我们将Venmo与Square Inc.(SQ)的CashApp进行比较，我们可以看到Venmo在货币化方面仍有很长的路要走。据估计，CashApp在2020年为每个用户带来了54美元的收入，而Venmo仅从每个活跃用户身上获得了12美元的收入。交易成本略有差异，但这大部分来自于CashApp更多地用于加密货币交易。这是Venmo可以轻松复制的。</blockquote> In terms of growth though, Venmo can go much farther. Originally, Venmo was conceived as a peer-to-peer payment system, but this is quickly moving to businesses too. Amazon.com (AMZN)&nbsp;will be accepting Venmo payments&nbsp;starting in 2022, and I believe this will see significant success.<blockquote>不过，就增长而言，Venmo可以走得更远。最初，Venmo被认为是一个点对点支付系统，但这也很快转移到企业。亚马逊(AMZN)将从2022年开始接受Venmo支付，我相信这将取得巨大成功。</blockquote> Venmo has a place in the mobile phones of 65 million people, and this is somethingPayPal can leverage to its advantage moving forward.<blockquote>Venmo在6500万人的手机中占有一席之地，这是PayPal可以利用的优势。</blockquote> The other big reason I will continue to holdPayPal is its incredible Balance Sheet, and all the growth opportunities this opens.PayPal has $13.29 billion in cash and negative net debt. It has a much stronger balance sheet than its most established peers, such as Mastercard Corporation (MA). It's now time forPayPal to put this money to good use to expand its platform, especially internationally, something we already got a taste of in the last investor presentation.<blockquote>我将继续持有PayPal的另一个重要原因是其令人难以置信的资产负债表，以及由此带来的所有增长机会。PayPal拥有132.9亿美元现金和负净债务。它的资产负债表比万事达卡公司（MA）等最成熟的同行要强大得多。现在是PayPal充分利用这笔资金来扩展其平台的时候了，特别是在国际上，我们已经在上次投资者演示中尝到了这一点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3484de41ef449aa085877ee9374fa00\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"648\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Investor Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：投资者介绍</blockquote> On September 7th, it was announced thatPayPal was acquiring Paidy, which uses artificial intelligence to find out the creditworthiness of its users and offers payment instalment plans. This is just one example of howPayPal can enter new markets and expand its footprint. Much like I argued before with Shopify,PayPal can now leverage Paidy to also push its other payment platforms into the Japanese market. I am very excited to see what other acquisitionsPayPal will make.<blockquote>9月7日，PayPal宣布收购Paidy，该公司使用人工智能来了解用户的信用度，并提供支付分期付款计划。这只是PayPal如何进入新市场并扩大其足迹的一个例子。就像我之前与Shopify争论的那样，PayPal现在可以利用Paidy将其其他支付平台推向日本市场。我很高兴看到PayPal还会进行哪些其他收购。</blockquote> Takeaway<blockquote>外卖</blockquote> In conclusion, and referring back to the thesis summary, I see no material reason why shares ofPayPal should continue to depreciate. Exogenous factors haven't changed, competition has always been tough and the company is still on track to deliver on its medium and long term growth targets.PayPal offers investors growth at a reasonable price, and that is hard to come by these days.<blockquote>总之，回到论文摘要，我认为PayPal的股价没有理由继续贬值。外生因素没有改变，竞争一直很激烈，公司仍有望实现中长期增长目标。PayPal以合理的价格为投资者提供增长，而这在当今很难实现。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal: Time To Go All In<blockquote>PayPal：是时候全力以赴了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal: Time To Go All In<blockquote>PayPal：是时候全力以赴了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-11-22 11:14\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>PayPal has fallen over 30% since its ATH due to poor guidance and increased competition concerns.</li> <li>I argue that PayPal is still on track to achieve its long-term goals, and competition, albeit fierce, is manageable.</li> <li>The potential of Venmo and PayPal's future acquisition are what keep me coming back for more.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71b7d55858c35eda92a04deae062ef8b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">South_agency/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>由于指导不力和竞争担忧加剧，PayPal自ATH以来股价已下跌超过30%。</li><li>我认为PayPal仍在实现其长期目标的轨道上，竞争尽管激烈，但是可控的。</li><li>Venmo和PayPal未来收购的潜力让我不断回来购买更多。</li></ul>South_agency/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> Thesis Summary<blockquote>论文摘要</blockquote> Seven months ago, we analyzedPayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) and concluded that our target price of $425 for 2025 made the $266 purchase give a compound return of 10.5% per year. At the time, we were forecasting revenue, earnings, and PE ratios to calculate the target price.<blockquote>七个月前，我们分析了PayPal Holdings Inc.(PYPL)，得出的结论是，我们2025年425美元的目标价使得266美元的收购每年复合回报率为10.5%。当时，我们正在预测收入、盈利和市盈率来计算目标价。</blockquote> Although our forecasted PE ratio based on its relation to Earnings suggested the price was a little high for that point in time, it seemed that the market was granting the company a higher valuation given its remarkably consistent track record.<blockquote>尽管我们根据其与收益的关系预测市盈率表明当时的价格有点高，但鉴于该公司非常一致的业绩记录，市场似乎给予了该公司更高的估值。</blockquote> It took very little smoothing to set historical revenue growth at a consistent 17.9% per year, and as for the earnings margin, net income was very close to 13.55% of revenue almost every year. The only two exceptions were one negative, in 2014, and one positive, in 2020, where the margin was 19.6%.<blockquote>几乎不需要任何平滑就将历史收入增长率设定在每年17.9%，至于利润率，净利润几乎每年都非常接近收入的13.55%。仅有的两个例外是2014年的负利率和2020年的正利率，利润率为19.6%。</blockquote> As the year 2021 has progressed,PayPal has dropped significantly, all the way down to $200. At this price, the $425 target for 2025 would give you a compound annual return of 20.1%. I can think of three possible explanations for this collapse:<blockquote>随着2021年的进展，PayPal大幅下跌，一路跌至200美元。按照这个价格，2025年425美元的目标将为您带来20.1%的复合年回报率。对于这种崩溃，我可以想到三种可能的解释：</blockquote> a) The price was ahead of its time, and 2020 over performance got investors thinking growth had accelerated and that the price would go higher than we were forecasting. Ultimately, an investment relying on growth that has not yet materialized requires higher returns, and if the company is growing 18%, the investor wants to make at least 18% on their investment.<blockquote>a)价格领先于时代，2020年的表现让投资者认为增长已经加速，价格将高于我们的预期。最终，依赖尚未实现的增长的投资需要更高的回报，如果公司增长18%，投资者希望从投资中获得至少18%的回报。</blockquote> b) There is a perceived risk of earnings growth slowing down significantly based on the company's performance after looking at financial reports from the first three quarters of 2021.<blockquote>b)在查看2021年前三季度的财务报告后，根据公司的业绩，认为盈利增长存在大幅放缓的风险。</blockquote> c) There is a perceived risk of growth slowing down significantly due to factors outside of the company's financial performance, based on a qualitative analysis of the company and its addressable market.<blockquote>c)根据对公司及其目标市场的定性分析，由于公司财务业绩以外的因素，存在增长显着放缓的风险。</blockquote> If the correct answer is A, this is a great investment. If the logic feels compelling enough you should buy now and enjoy your 20% return over the years. I am going to focus on the other two scenarios, where we need to think about whether the business itself is actually in trouble.<blockquote>如果正确答案是A，这是一项伟大的投资。如果逻辑足够令人信服，您应该现在购买并享受多年来20%的回报。我将重点讨论另外两种情况，在这两种情况下，我们需要考虑企业本身是否真的陷入了困境。</blockquote> 2021 Financial Performance<blockquote>二零二一年财务表现</blockquote> Our previous analysis onPayPal was based on revenue and net income, as per GAAP figures up to 2020. Here I am going to look at the results of the first three quarters of 2021 to see if the results are disappointing.<blockquote>我们之前对PayPal的分析是基于截至2020年的GAAP数据的收入和净利润。这里我要看看2021年前三季度的业绩，看看业绩是否令人失望。</blockquote> First off, we have revenue growth. Indeed, quarter on quarter it doesn't look great, but this is not uncommon inPayPal's history of seasonality. If you look at the chart below, you can see that revenue grows the most in the fourth quarter, always drops in the first (QoQ), and has mixed results from the first to the third. Also, to continue on the 17.9% growth trend, revenue in the fourth quarter would only have to be %6.65 billion less than 8% higher than in the third quarter.<blockquote>首先，我们有收入增长。事实上，环比来看，情况并不乐观，但这在PayPal的季节性历史中并不罕见。如果你看下图，你可以看到第四季度收入增长最多，第一季度（环比）总是下降，并且从第一季度到第三季度的结果好坏参半。此外，要继续保持17.9%的增长趋势，第四季度的收入只需达到66.5亿美元，比第三季度增长不到8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fba8cbaa13348012cc020a72a4ecd1c\" tg-width=\"283\" tg-height=\"170\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。</blockquote> It appears that all is good with revenue growth so far and 2021 looks to deliver once again on the near 20% revenue growth figure. Let's take a look at earnings. So far in the first 3 quarters of 2021, earnings have been, just as in 2020, much higher than the previous trend of 13.5% of revenue. So far, earnings are between 17.5 and 19% of revenue, with an average of 18.3%. It is true that this was 19.6% in 2020, but it also means that we can no longer reasonably consider 2020 an anomaly in that respect.<blockquote>到目前为止，收入增长似乎一切顺利，2021年有望再次实现近20%的收入增长。我们来看看收益。到目前为止，2021年前3个季度的盈利与2020年一样，远高于之前占收入13.5%的趋势。到目前为止，盈利占收入的17.5%至19%之间，平均为18.3%。诚然，2020年这一比例为19.6%，但这也意味着我们不能再合理地认为2020年在这方面是一个异常现象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65fdec19cf0bd680067fed0f3ac34f92\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"290\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。2021年的数字是基于前3个季度的估计。</blockquote> Looking at these figures, the only thing that could worry investors is year-on-year growth rates. If you look at the table below you can see the growth rates of revenue and earnings for&nbsp;Q3 2021, YTD or YoY and with the 1-year growth rate or the 2-year CAGR.<blockquote>从这些数字来看，投资者唯一可能担心的是同比增长率。如果您查看下表，您可以看到2021年第三季度、年初至今或同比的收入和收益增长率以及1年增长率或2年CAGR。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c30583b007f9682b8b5c78496897f61d\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"145\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。</blockquote> This gives a clue of what might be the problem, as year-on-year growth rates in the third quarter look significantly worse than average, especially in earnings growth. However, if you take into account that 2020 Q3 was an exceptionally good quarter, it seems likePayPal is being punished for how good results were in 2020. If you look at the 2-year growth, results seem great, especially in earnings (it is also true that Q3 2019 was exceptionally bad, but one argument is as valid as the other).<blockquote>这为问题可能出在哪里提供了线索，因为第三季度的同比增长率看起来明显低于平均水平，尤其是在盈利增长方面。然而，如果你考虑到2020年第三季度是一个非常好的季度，那么PayPal似乎因2020年的良好业绩而受到惩罚。如果你看看两年的增长，结果似乎很好，尤其是在盈利方面（2019年第三季度确实异常糟糕，但一个论点和另一个一样有效）。</blockquote> To illustrate this point, imagine that net income had been lower in 2020. The chart below contains the same figures as the one before, except that 2020 net income has been arbitrarily reduced to fit a more growing pattern.<blockquote>为了说明这一点，想象一下2020年净利润较低。下图包含与上一张相同的数字，只是2020年净利润被任意减少以适应更增长的模式。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b14c61672e1db2d56752a6a07d858b3\" tg-width=\"483\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. *The figure from 2014 has been removed and the net income figure from 2020 has been reduced to illustrate the point explained above. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。*二零一四年的数字已删除，而二零二零年的净收入数字已减少，以说明上文所解释的要点。2021年的数字是基于前3个季度的估计。</blockquote> The result would be a much more promising-looking trend altogether. When taking short-term growth figures into account when valuing a company one should wonder if they are punishing bad results or actually punishing good results. All considered it doesn't seem like there is a reasonable cause in the observed financial performance ofPayPal that should make you think prospects are worse than they were 9 months ago.<blockquote>结果将是一个看起来更有希望的趋势。当在评估一家公司时考虑短期增长数据时，人们应该怀疑他们是在惩罚糟糕的结果还是实际上在惩罚好的结果。总的来说，观察到的PayPal财务表现似乎没有合理的原因让您认为前景比9个月前更糟糕。</blockquote> Is market growth a concern?<blockquote>市场增长令人担忧吗？</blockquote> With that said, the only other possible explanation is that, indeed, there are external factors that will prevent&nbsp;PayPal from expanding at the previously perceived rate. The stock was recently&nbsp;downgraded by Bernstein, claiming \"market share growth concerns\". The stock has slid over 30% since it reached an ATH at $300 makingPayPal's valuation that much more attractive. But how does this weigh against concerns over market growth?<blockquote>话虽如此，唯一其他可能的解释是，确实有外部因素会阻止PayPal以之前认为的速度扩张。该股最近被伯恩斯坦下调评级，声称“市场份额增长担忧”。自达到300美元的ATH以来，该股已下跌超过30%，这使得PayPal的估值更具吸引力。但这如何抵消对市场增长的担忧呢？</blockquote> \"Fintech\" is no longer a novel concept, and in the last few years, we have seen hundreds if not thousands of companies come out with similar versions of whatPayPal offers. To say the market is saturated, might even be an understatement, butPayPal remains the king of the hill.<blockquote>“金融科技”不再是一个新颖的概念，在过去几年中，我们已经看到数百家甚至数千家公司推出了PayPal提供的类似版本。说市场已经饱和甚至可能是一种保守的说法，但PayPal仍然是山中之王。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/462ce82e5652c8762836c4ef98dcdee5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: datanyze.com<blockquote>资料来源：datanyze.com</blockquote> In terms of Payment Processing Software,PayPal has over 50% of the market, and I say that because Braintree, which takes the fifth position, is also owned byPayPal. The problemPayPal faces though, isn't coming from the hundreds of startups and newly IPO'd companies, but by the large players which we also see on his list.<blockquote>在支付处理软件方面，PayPal拥有超过50%的市场份额，我这么说是因为排名第五的Braintree也归PayPal所有。然而，PayPal面临的问题并不是来自数百家初创公司和新上市的公司，而是来自我们在他的名单上也看到的大公司。</blockquote> This includes AmazonPay, Shopify Inc.'s (SHOP) ShopPay and even Google Pay. Arguably, some of these services have an advantage, in that their payment offerings complement other services. Shopify, for example, incentivizes its users and merchants to use its payment processing platforms, and Google has the advantage of being deeply embedded in a lot of the things we do.<blockquote>这包括AmazonPay、Shopify Inc.(SHOP)的ShopPay甚至Google Pay。可以说，其中一些服务具有优势，因为它们的支付产品补充了其他服务。例如，Shopify激励其用户和商家使用其支付处理平台，而谷歌的优势在于深入参与我们所做的许多事情。</blockquote> In this regard, Shopify and Amazon, for example, have a big advantage, in that they control where much of the money online is spent and can use this to their advantage. However, the payment system is not just limited to eCommerce.PayPal has a presence in many other areas, such as international transfers/transactions and physical payments.PayPal can be used as a bank, and there are also advantages to being a complete financial service focused company, just like there are advantages to having an ecosystem of buyers and sellers on your platform.<blockquote>例如，在这方面，Shopify和亚马逊有很大的优势，因为他们控制着大部分在线资金的花费，并可以利用这一点。然而，支付系统不仅仅局限于电子商务。PayPal在许多其他领域都有业务，如国际转账/交易和实物支付。PayPal可以用作银行，作为一家专注于完整金融服务的公司也有优势，就像在你的平台上拥有买家和卖家的生态系统也有优势一样。</blockquote> Yes, the market is saturated, and growth will become a challenge, but I still believe thatPayPal can succeed long-term and I'll explain why.<blockquote>是的，市场已经饱和，增长将成为一个挑战，但我仍然相信PayPal可以长期成功，我会解释原因。</blockquote> Two more reasons I will hold on toPayPal<blockquote>还有两个我会坚持下去的理由PayPal</blockquote> My analysis continues to support thatPayPal is on track to deliver the growth and returns I expected weeks ago. In this regard,PayPal offers growth at a reasonable price. It is a profitable and well-established company that is going nowhere.<blockquote>我的分析继续支持PayPal有望实现我几周前预期的增长和回报。在这方面，PayPal以合理的价格提供增长。这是一家盈利且信誉良好的公司，但却一事无成。</blockquote> More specifically though, two factors make me especially bullish onPayPal; Venmo and the power of its Balance Sheet.<blockquote>更具体地说，有两个因素让我特别看好PayPal；Venmo及其资产负债表的力量。</blockquote> Starting with Venmo, this is perhaps the biggest reason why I thinkPayPal still holds plenty of value and growth potential. Venmo is one of the most popular payment Apps in the United States. In 2020 over&nbsp;$159 billion in transactions&nbsp;were processed through Venmo in 2020, and the App is on track to deliver $900 million in revenues in 2021 according to the latest earnings call.<blockquote>从Venmo开始，这也许是我认为PayPal仍然拥有巨大价值和增长潜力的最大原因。Venmo是美国最受欢迎的支付应用之一。根据最新的收益看涨期权，2020年通过Venmo处理了超过1590亿美元的交易，该应用程序有望在2021年实现9亿美元的收入。</blockquote> But Venmo is barely scratching the surface of what it can achieve, both in terms of growth and monetization. When it comes to the latter, we can see that Venmo can still come a long way in terms of monetization if we compare it to Square Inc.'s (SQ) CashApp.According to estimates, CashApp produced $54 per user in 2020, while Venmo only made $12 from each active user. There are slight differences in transaction costs, but most of this comes from the fact that CashApp is used more for cryptocurrency transactions. This is something Venmo can easily replicate.<blockquote>但无论是在增长还是货币化方面，Venmo都只是触及了其所能实现的表面。谈到后者，如果我们将Venmo与Square Inc.(SQ)的CashApp进行比较，我们可以看到Venmo在货币化方面仍有很长的路要走。据估计，CashApp在2020年为每个用户带来了54美元的收入，而Venmo仅从每个活跃用户身上获得了12美元的收入。交易成本略有差异，但这大部分来自于CashApp更多地用于加密货币交易。这是Venmo可以轻松复制的。</blockquote> In terms of growth though, Venmo can go much farther. Originally, Venmo was conceived as a peer-to-peer payment system, but this is quickly moving to businesses too. Amazon.com (AMZN)&nbsp;will be accepting Venmo payments&nbsp;starting in 2022, and I believe this will see significant success.<blockquote>不过，就增长而言，Venmo可以走得更远。最初，Venmo被认为是一个点对点支付系统，但这也很快转移到企业。亚马逊(AMZN)将从2022年开始接受Venmo支付，我相信这将取得巨大成功。</blockquote> Venmo has a place in the mobile phones of 65 million people, and this is somethingPayPal can leverage to its advantage moving forward.<blockquote>Venmo在6500万人的手机中占有一席之地，这是PayPal可以利用的优势。</blockquote> The other big reason I will continue to holdPayPal is its incredible Balance Sheet, and all the growth opportunities this opens.PayPal has $13.29 billion in cash and negative net debt. It has a much stronger balance sheet than its most established peers, such as Mastercard Corporation (MA). It's now time forPayPal to put this money to good use to expand its platform, especially internationally, something we already got a taste of in the last investor presentation.<blockquote>我将继续持有PayPal的另一个重要原因是其令人难以置信的资产负债表，以及由此带来的所有增长机会。PayPal拥有132.9亿美元现金和负净债务。它的资产负债表比万事达卡公司（MA）等最成熟的同行要强大得多。现在是PayPal充分利用这笔资金来扩展其平台的时候了，特别是在国际上，我们已经在上次投资者演示中尝到了这一点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3484de41ef449aa085877ee9374fa00\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"648\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Investor Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：投资者介绍</blockquote> On September 7th, it was announced thatPayPal was acquiring Paidy, which uses artificial intelligence to find out the creditworthiness of its users and offers payment instalment plans. This is just one example of howPayPal can enter new markets and expand its footprint. Much like I argued before with Shopify,PayPal can now leverage Paidy to also push its other payment platforms into the Japanese market. I am very excited to see what other acquisitionsPayPal will make.<blockquote>9月7日，PayPal宣布收购Paidy，该公司使用人工智能来了解用户的信用度，并提供支付分期付款计划。这只是PayPal如何进入新市场并扩大其足迹的一个例子。就像我之前与Shopify争论的那样，PayPal现在可以利用Paidy将其其他支付平台推向日本市场。我很高兴看到PayPal还会进行哪些其他收购。</blockquote> Takeaway<blockquote>外卖</blockquote> In conclusion, and referring back to the thesis summary, I see no material reason why shares ofPayPal should continue to depreciate. Exogenous factors haven't changed, competition has always been tough and the company is still on track to deliver on its medium and long term growth targets.PayPal offers investors growth at a reasonable price, and that is hard to come by these days.<blockquote>总之，回到论文摘要，我认为PayPal的股价没有理由继续贬值。外生因素没有改变，竞争一直很激烈，公司仍有望实现中长期增长目标。PayPal以合理的价格为投资者提供增长，而这在当今很难实现。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4470923-paypal-time-to-go-all-in\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4470923-paypal-time-to-go-all-in","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158506816","content_text":"Summary\n\nPayPal has fallen over 30% since its ATH due to poor guidance and increased competition concerns.\nI argue that PayPal is still on track to achieve its long-term goals, and competition, albeit fierce, is manageable.\nThe potential of Venmo and PayPal's future acquisition are what keep me coming back for more.\n\nSouth_agency/E+ via Getty Images\nThesis Summary\nSeven months ago, we analyzedPayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) and concluded that our target price of $425 for 2025 made the $266 purchase give a compound return of 10.5% per year. At the time, we were forecasting revenue, earnings, and PE ratios to calculate the target price.\nAlthough our forecasted PE ratio based on its relation to Earnings suggested the price was a little high for that point in time, it seemed that the market was granting the company a higher valuation given its remarkably consistent track record.\nIt took very little smoothing to set historical revenue growth at a consistent 17.9% per year, and as for the earnings margin, net income was very close to 13.55% of revenue almost every year. The only two exceptions were one negative, in 2014, and one positive, in 2020, where the margin was 19.6%.\nAs the year 2021 has progressed,PayPal has dropped significantly, all the way down to $200. At this price, the $425 target for 2025 would give you a compound annual return of 20.1%. I can think of three possible explanations for this collapse:\na) The price was ahead of its time, and 2020 over performance got investors thinking growth had accelerated and that the price would go higher than we were forecasting. Ultimately, an investment relying on growth that has not yet materialized requires higher returns, and if the company is growing 18%, the investor wants to make at least 18% on their investment.\nb) There is a perceived risk of earnings growth slowing down significantly based on the company's performance after looking at financial reports from the first three quarters of 2021.\nc) There is a perceived risk of growth slowing down significantly due to factors outside of the company's financial performance, based on a qualitative analysis of the company and its addressable market.\nIf the correct answer is A, this is a great investment. If the logic feels compelling enough you should buy now and enjoy your 20% return over the years. I am going to focus on the other two scenarios, where we need to think about whether the business itself is actually in trouble.\n2021 Financial Performance\nOur previous analysis onPayPal was based on revenue and net income, as per GAAP figures up to 2020. Here I am going to look at the results of the first three quarters of 2021 to see if the results are disappointing.\nFirst off, we have revenue growth. Indeed, quarter on quarter it doesn't look great, but this is not uncommon inPayPal's history of seasonality. If you look at the chart below, you can see that revenue grows the most in the fourth quarter, always drops in the first (QoQ), and has mixed results from the first to the third. Also, to continue on the 17.9% growth trend, revenue in the fourth quarter would only have to be %6.65 billion less than 8% higher than in the third quarter.\nSource: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions.\nIt appears that all is good with revenue growth so far and 2021 looks to deliver once again on the near 20% revenue growth figure. Let's take a look at earnings. So far in the first 3 quarters of 2021, earnings have been, just as in 2020, much higher than the previous trend of 13.5% of revenue. So far, earnings are between 17.5 and 19% of revenue, with an average of 18.3%. It is true that this was 19.6% in 2020, but it also means that we can no longer reasonably consider 2020 an anomaly in that respect.\nSource: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.\nLooking at these figures, the only thing that could worry investors is year-on-year growth rates. If you look at the table below you can see the growth rates of revenue and earnings for Q3 2021, YTD or YoY and with the 1-year growth rate or the 2-year CAGR.\nSource: Author's work based on financial reports.\nThis gives a clue of what might be the problem, as year-on-year growth rates in the third quarter look significantly worse than average, especially in earnings growth. However, if you take into account that 2020 Q3 was an exceptionally good quarter, it seems likePayPal is being punished for how good results were in 2020. If you look at the 2-year growth, results seem great, especially in earnings (it is also true that Q3 2019 was exceptionally bad, but one argument is as valid as the other).\nTo illustrate this point, imagine that net income had been lower in 2020. The chart below contains the same figures as the one before, except that 2020 net income has been arbitrarily reduced to fit a more growing pattern.\nSource: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. *The figure from 2014 has been removed and the net income figure from 2020 has been reduced to illustrate the point explained above. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.\nThe result would be a much more promising-looking trend altogether. When taking short-term growth figures into account when valuing a company one should wonder if they are punishing bad results or actually punishing good results. All considered it doesn't seem like there is a reasonable cause in the observed financial performance ofPayPal that should make you think prospects are worse than they were 9 months ago.\nIs market growth a concern?\nWith that said, the only other possible explanation is that, indeed, there are external factors that will prevent PayPal from expanding at the previously perceived rate. The stock was recently downgraded by Bernstein, claiming \"market share growth concerns\". The stock has slid over 30% since it reached an ATH at $300 makingPayPal's valuation that much more attractive. But how does this weigh against concerns over market growth?\n\"Fintech\" is no longer a novel concept, and in the last few years, we have seen hundreds if not thousands of companies come out with similar versions of whatPayPal offers. To say the market is saturated, might even be an understatement, butPayPal remains the king of the hill.\nSource: datanyze.com\nIn terms of Payment Processing Software,PayPal has over 50% of the market, and I say that because Braintree, which takes the fifth position, is also owned byPayPal. The problemPayPal faces though, isn't coming from the hundreds of startups and newly IPO'd companies, but by the large players which we also see on his list.\nThis includes AmazonPay, Shopify Inc.'s (SHOP) ShopPay and even Google Pay. Arguably, some of these services have an advantage, in that their payment offerings complement other services. Shopify, for example, incentivizes its users and merchants to use its payment processing platforms, and Google has the advantage of being deeply embedded in a lot of the things we do.\nIn this regard, Shopify and Amazon, for example, have a big advantage, in that they control where much of the money online is spent and can use this to their advantage. However, the payment system is not just limited to eCommerce.PayPal has a presence in many other areas, such as international transfers/transactions and physical payments.PayPal can be used as a bank, and there are also advantages to being a complete financial service focused company, just like there are advantages to having an ecosystem of buyers and sellers on your platform.\nYes, the market is saturated, and growth will become a challenge, but I still believe thatPayPal can succeed long-term and I'll explain why.\nTwo more reasons I will hold on toPayPal\nMy analysis continues to support thatPayPal is on track to deliver the growth and returns I expected weeks ago. In this regard,PayPal offers growth at a reasonable price. It is a profitable and well-established company that is going nowhere.\nMore specifically though, two factors make me especially bullish onPayPal; Venmo and the power of its Balance Sheet.\nStarting with Venmo, this is perhaps the biggest reason why I thinkPayPal still holds plenty of value and growth potential. Venmo is one of the most popular payment Apps in the United States. In 2020 over $159 billion in transactions were processed through Venmo in 2020, and the App is on track to deliver $900 million in revenues in 2021 according to the latest earnings call.\nBut Venmo is barely scratching the surface of what it can achieve, both in terms of growth and monetization. When it comes to the latter, we can see that Venmo can still come a long way in terms of monetization if we compare it to Square Inc.'s (SQ) CashApp.According to estimates, CashApp produced $54 per user in 2020, while Venmo only made $12 from each active user. There are slight differences in transaction costs, but most of this comes from the fact that CashApp is used more for cryptocurrency transactions. This is something Venmo can easily replicate.\nIn terms of growth though, Venmo can go much farther. Originally, Venmo was conceived as a peer-to-peer payment system, but this is quickly moving to businesses too. Amazon.com (AMZN) will be accepting Venmo payments starting in 2022, and I believe this will see significant success.\nVenmo has a place in the mobile phones of 65 million people, and this is somethingPayPal can leverage to its advantage moving forward.\nThe other big reason I will continue to holdPayPal is its incredible Balance Sheet, and all the growth opportunities this opens.PayPal has $13.29 billion in cash and negative net debt. It has a much stronger balance sheet than its most established peers, such as Mastercard Corporation (MA). It's now time forPayPal to put this money to good use to expand its platform, especially internationally, something we already got a taste of in the last investor presentation.\nSource: Investor Presentation\nOn September 7th, it was announced thatPayPal was acquiring Paidy, which uses artificial intelligence to find out the creditworthiness of its users and offers payment instalment plans. This is just one example of howPayPal can enter new markets and expand its footprint. Much like I argued before with Shopify,PayPal can now leverage Paidy to also push its other payment platforms into the Japanese market. I am very excited to see what other acquisitionsPayPal will make.\nTakeaway\nIn conclusion, and referring back to the thesis summary, I see no material reason why shares ofPayPal should continue to depreciate. Exogenous factors haven't changed, competition has always been tough and the company is still on track to deliver on its medium and long term growth targets.PayPal offers investors growth at a reasonable price, and that is hard to come by these days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":872433967,"gmtCreate":1637557266666,"gmtModify":1637557266666,"author":{"id":"3558522467635758","authorId":"3558522467635758","name":"investforget","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/465a618fe838870d5e7ed6cfa1964da8","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3558522467635758","authorIdStr":"3558522467635758"},"htmlText":"Could bottom out","listText":"Could bottom out","text":"Could bottom out","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872433967","repostId":1158506816,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158506816","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637550842,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158506816?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-22 11:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal: Time To Go All In<blockquote>PayPal：是时候全力以赴了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158506816","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPayPal has fallen over 30% since its ATH due to poor guidance and increased competition con","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>PayPal has fallen over 30% since its ATH due to poor guidance and increased competition concerns.</li> <li>I argue that PayPal is still on track to achieve its long-term goals, and competition, albeit fierce, is manageable.</li> <li>The potential of Venmo and PayPal's future acquisition are what keep me coming back for more.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71b7d55858c35eda92a04deae062ef8b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">South_agency/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>由于指导不力和竞争担忧加剧，PayPal自ATH以来股价已下跌超过30%。</li><li>我认为PayPal仍在实现其长期目标的轨道上，竞争尽管激烈，但是可控的。</li><li>Venmo和PayPal未来收购的潜力让我不断回来购买更多。</li></ul>South_agency/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> Thesis Summary<blockquote>论文摘要</blockquote> Seven months ago, we analyzedPayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) and concluded that our target price of $425 for 2025 made the $266 purchase give a compound return of 10.5% per year. At the time, we were forecasting revenue, earnings, and PE ratios to calculate the target price.<blockquote>七个月前，我们分析了PayPal Holdings Inc.(PYPL)，得出的结论是，我们2025年425美元的目标价使得266美元的收购每年复合回报率为10.5%。当时，我们正在预测收入、盈利和市盈率来计算目标价。</blockquote> Although our forecasted PE ratio based on its relation to Earnings suggested the price was a little high for that point in time, it seemed that the market was granting the company a higher valuation given its remarkably consistent track record.<blockquote>尽管我们根据其与收益的关系预测市盈率表明当时的价格有点高，但鉴于该公司非常一致的业绩记录，市场似乎给予了该公司更高的估值。</blockquote> It took very little smoothing to set historical revenue growth at a consistent 17.9% per year, and as for the earnings margin, net income was very close to 13.55% of revenue almost every year. The only two exceptions were one negative, in 2014, and one positive, in 2020, where the margin was 19.6%.<blockquote>几乎不需要任何平滑就将历史收入增长率设定在每年17.9%，至于利润率，净利润几乎每年都非常接近收入的13.55%。仅有的两个例外是2014年的负利率和2020年的正利率，利润率为19.6%。</blockquote> As the year 2021 has progressed,PayPal has dropped significantly, all the way down to $200. At this price, the $425 target for 2025 would give you a compound annual return of 20.1%. I can think of three possible explanations for this collapse:<blockquote>随着2021年的进展，PayPal大幅下跌，一路跌至200美元。按照这个价格，2025年425美元的目标将为您带来20.1%的复合年回报率。对于这种崩溃，我可以想到三种可能的解释：</blockquote> a) The price was ahead of its time, and 2020 over performance got investors thinking growth had accelerated and that the price would go higher than we were forecasting. Ultimately, an investment relying on growth that has not yet materialized requires higher returns, and if the company is growing 18%, the investor wants to make at least 18% on their investment.<blockquote>a)价格领先于时代，2020年的表现让投资者认为增长已经加速，价格将高于我们的预期。最终，依赖尚未实现的增长的投资需要更高的回报，如果公司增长18%，投资者希望从投资中获得至少18%的回报。</blockquote> b) There is a perceived risk of earnings growth slowing down significantly based on the company's performance after looking at financial reports from the first three quarters of 2021.<blockquote>b)在查看2021年前三季度的财务报告后，根据公司的业绩，认为盈利增长存在大幅放缓的风险。</blockquote> c) There is a perceived risk of growth slowing down significantly due to factors outside of the company's financial performance, based on a qualitative analysis of the company and its addressable market.<blockquote>c)根据对公司及其目标市场的定性分析，由于公司财务业绩以外的因素，存在增长显着放缓的风险。</blockquote> If the correct answer is A, this is a great investment. If the logic feels compelling enough you should buy now and enjoy your 20% return over the years. I am going to focus on the other two scenarios, where we need to think about whether the business itself is actually in trouble.<blockquote>如果正确答案是A，这是一项伟大的投资。如果逻辑足够令人信服，您应该现在购买并享受多年来20%的回报。我将重点讨论另外两种情况，在这两种情况下，我们需要考虑企业本身是否真的陷入了困境。</blockquote> 2021 Financial Performance<blockquote>二零二一年财务表现</blockquote> Our previous analysis onPayPal was based on revenue and net income, as per GAAP figures up to 2020. Here I am going to look at the results of the first three quarters of 2021 to see if the results are disappointing.<blockquote>我们之前对PayPal的分析是基于截至2020年的GAAP数据的收入和净利润。这里我要看看2021年前三季度的业绩，看看业绩是否令人失望。</blockquote> First off, we have revenue growth. Indeed, quarter on quarter it doesn't look great, but this is not uncommon inPayPal's history of seasonality. If you look at the chart below, you can see that revenue grows the most in the fourth quarter, always drops in the first (QoQ), and has mixed results from the first to the third. Also, to continue on the 17.9% growth trend, revenue in the fourth quarter would only have to be %6.65 billion less than 8% higher than in the third quarter.<blockquote>首先，我们有收入增长。事实上，环比来看，情况并不乐观，但这在PayPal的季节性历史中并不罕见。如果你看下图，你可以看到第四季度收入增长最多，第一季度（环比）总是下降，并且从第一季度到第三季度的结果好坏参半。此外，要继续保持17.9%的增长趋势，第四季度的收入只需达到66.5亿美元，比第三季度增长不到8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fba8cbaa13348012cc020a72a4ecd1c\" tg-width=\"283\" tg-height=\"170\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。</blockquote> It appears that all is good with revenue growth so far and 2021 looks to deliver once again on the near 20% revenue growth figure. Let's take a look at earnings. So far in the first 3 quarters of 2021, earnings have been, just as in 2020, much higher than the previous trend of 13.5% of revenue. So far, earnings are between 17.5 and 19% of revenue, with an average of 18.3%. It is true that this was 19.6% in 2020, but it also means that we can no longer reasonably consider 2020 an anomaly in that respect.<blockquote>到目前为止，收入增长似乎一切顺利，2021年有望再次实现近20%的收入增长。我们来看看收益。到目前为止，2021年前3个季度的盈利与2020年一样，远高于之前占收入13.5%的趋势。到目前为止，盈利占收入的17.5%至19%之间，平均为18.3%。诚然，2020年这一比例为19.6%，但这也意味着我们不能再合理地认为2020年在这方面是一个异常现象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65fdec19cf0bd680067fed0f3ac34f92\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"290\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。2021年的数字是基于前3个季度的估计。</blockquote> Looking at these figures, the only thing that could worry investors is year-on-year growth rates. If you look at the table below you can see the growth rates of revenue and earnings for&nbsp;Q3 2021, YTD or YoY and with the 1-year growth rate or the 2-year CAGR.<blockquote>从这些数字来看，投资者唯一可能担心的是同比增长率。如果您查看下表，您可以看到2021年第三季度、年初至今或同比的收入和收益增长率以及1年增长率或2年CAGR。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c30583b007f9682b8b5c78496897f61d\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"145\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。</blockquote> This gives a clue of what might be the problem, as year-on-year growth rates in the third quarter look significantly worse than average, especially in earnings growth. However, if you take into account that 2020 Q3 was an exceptionally good quarter, it seems likePayPal is being punished for how good results were in 2020. If you look at the 2-year growth, results seem great, especially in earnings (it is also true that Q3 2019 was exceptionally bad, but one argument is as valid as the other).<blockquote>这为问题可能出在哪里提供了线索，因为第三季度的同比增长率看起来明显低于平均水平，尤其是在盈利增长方面。然而，如果你考虑到2020年第三季度是一个非常好的季度，那么PayPal似乎因2020年的良好业绩而受到惩罚。如果你看看两年的增长，结果似乎很好，尤其是在盈利方面（2019年第三季度确实异常糟糕，但一个论点和另一个一样有效）。</blockquote> To illustrate this point, imagine that net income had been lower in 2020. The chart below contains the same figures as the one before, except that 2020 net income has been arbitrarily reduced to fit a more growing pattern.<blockquote>为了说明这一点，想象一下2020年净利润较低。下图包含与上一张相同的数字，只是2020年净利润被任意减少以适应更增长的模式。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b14c61672e1db2d56752a6a07d858b3\" tg-width=\"483\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. *The figure from 2014 has been removed and the net income figure from 2020 has been reduced to illustrate the point explained above. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。*二零一四年的数字已删除，而二零二零年的净收入数字已减少，以说明上文所解释的要点。2021年的数字是基于前3个季度的估计。</blockquote> The result would be a much more promising-looking trend altogether. When taking short-term growth figures into account when valuing a company one should wonder if they are punishing bad results or actually punishing good results. All considered it doesn't seem like there is a reasonable cause in the observed financial performance ofPayPal that should make you think prospects are worse than they were 9 months ago.<blockquote>结果将是一个看起来更有希望的趋势。当在评估一家公司时考虑短期增长数据时，人们应该怀疑他们是在惩罚糟糕的结果还是实际上在惩罚好的结果。总的来说，观察到的PayPal财务表现似乎没有合理的原因让您认为前景比9个月前更糟糕。</blockquote> Is market growth a concern?<blockquote>市场增长令人担忧吗？</blockquote> With that said, the only other possible explanation is that, indeed, there are external factors that will prevent&nbsp;PayPal from expanding at the previously perceived rate. The stock was recently&nbsp;downgraded by Bernstein, claiming \"market share growth concerns\". The stock has slid over 30% since it reached an ATH at $300 makingPayPal's valuation that much more attractive. But how does this weigh against concerns over market growth?<blockquote>话虽如此，唯一其他可能的解释是，确实有外部因素会阻止PayPal以之前认为的速度扩张。该股最近被伯恩斯坦下调评级，声称“市场份额增长担忧”。自达到300美元的ATH以来，该股已下跌超过30%，这使得PayPal的估值更具吸引力。但这如何抵消对市场增长的担忧呢？</blockquote> \"Fintech\" is no longer a novel concept, and in the last few years, we have seen hundreds if not thousands of companies come out with similar versions of whatPayPal offers. To say the market is saturated, might even be an understatement, butPayPal remains the king of the hill.<blockquote>“金融科技”不再是一个新颖的概念，在过去几年中，我们已经看到数百家甚至数千家公司推出了PayPal提供的类似版本。说市场已经饱和甚至可能是一种保守的说法，但PayPal仍然是山中之王。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/462ce82e5652c8762836c4ef98dcdee5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: datanyze.com<blockquote>资料来源：datanyze.com</blockquote> In terms of Payment Processing Software,PayPal has over 50% of the market, and I say that because Braintree, which takes the fifth position, is also owned byPayPal. The problemPayPal faces though, isn't coming from the hundreds of startups and newly IPO'd companies, but by the large players which we also see on his list.<blockquote>在支付处理软件方面，PayPal拥有超过50%的市场份额，我这么说是因为排名第五的Braintree也归PayPal所有。然而，PayPal面临的问题并不是来自数百家初创公司和新上市的公司，而是来自我们在他的名单上也看到的大公司。</blockquote> This includes AmazonPay, Shopify Inc.'s (SHOP) ShopPay and even Google Pay. Arguably, some of these services have an advantage, in that their payment offerings complement other services. Shopify, for example, incentivizes its users and merchants to use its payment processing platforms, and Google has the advantage of being deeply embedded in a lot of the things we do.<blockquote>这包括AmazonPay、Shopify Inc.(SHOP)的ShopPay甚至Google Pay。可以说，其中一些服务具有优势，因为它们的支付产品补充了其他服务。例如，Shopify激励其用户和商家使用其支付处理平台，而谷歌的优势在于深入参与我们所做的许多事情。</blockquote> In this regard, Shopify and Amazon, for example, have a big advantage, in that they control where much of the money online is spent and can use this to their advantage. However, the payment system is not just limited to eCommerce.PayPal has a presence in many other areas, such as international transfers/transactions and physical payments.PayPal can be used as a bank, and there are also advantages to being a complete financial service focused company, just like there are advantages to having an ecosystem of buyers and sellers on your platform.<blockquote>例如，在这方面，Shopify和亚马逊有很大的优势，因为他们控制着大部分在线资金的花费，并可以利用这一点。然而，支付系统不仅仅局限于电子商务。PayPal在许多其他领域都有业务，如国际转账/交易和实物支付。PayPal可以用作银行，作为一家专注于完整金融服务的公司也有优势，就像在你的平台上拥有买家和卖家的生态系统也有优势一样。</blockquote> Yes, the market is saturated, and growth will become a challenge, but I still believe thatPayPal can succeed long-term and I'll explain why.<blockquote>是的，市场已经饱和，增长将成为一个挑战，但我仍然相信PayPal可以长期成功，我会解释原因。</blockquote> Two more reasons I will hold on toPayPal<blockquote>还有两个我会坚持下去的理由PayPal</blockquote> My analysis continues to support thatPayPal is on track to deliver the growth and returns I expected weeks ago. In this regard,PayPal offers growth at a reasonable price. It is a profitable and well-established company that is going nowhere.<blockquote>我的分析继续支持PayPal有望实现我几周前预期的增长和回报。在这方面，PayPal以合理的价格提供增长。这是一家盈利且信誉良好的公司，但却一事无成。</blockquote> More specifically though, two factors make me especially bullish onPayPal; Venmo and the power of its Balance Sheet.<blockquote>更具体地说，有两个因素让我特别看好PayPal；Venmo及其资产负债表的力量。</blockquote> Starting with Venmo, this is perhaps the biggest reason why I thinkPayPal still holds plenty of value and growth potential. Venmo is one of the most popular payment Apps in the United States. In 2020 over&nbsp;$159 billion in transactions&nbsp;were processed through Venmo in 2020, and the App is on track to deliver $900 million in revenues in 2021 according to the latest earnings call.<blockquote>从Venmo开始，这也许是我认为PayPal仍然拥有巨大价值和增长潜力的最大原因。Venmo是美国最受欢迎的支付应用之一。根据最新的收益看涨期权，2020年通过Venmo处理了超过1590亿美元的交易，该应用程序有望在2021年实现9亿美元的收入。</blockquote> But Venmo is barely scratching the surface of what it can achieve, both in terms of growth and monetization. When it comes to the latter, we can see that Venmo can still come a long way in terms of monetization if we compare it to Square Inc.'s (SQ) CashApp.According to estimates, CashApp produced $54 per user in 2020, while Venmo only made $12 from each active user. There are slight differences in transaction costs, but most of this comes from the fact that CashApp is used more for cryptocurrency transactions. This is something Venmo can easily replicate.<blockquote>但无论是在增长还是货币化方面，Venmo都只是触及了其所能实现的表面。谈到后者，如果我们将Venmo与Square Inc.(SQ)的CashApp进行比较，我们可以看到Venmo在货币化方面仍有很长的路要走。据估计，CashApp在2020年为每个用户带来了54美元的收入，而Venmo仅从每个活跃用户身上获得了12美元的收入。交易成本略有差异，但这大部分来自于CashApp更多地用于加密货币交易。这是Venmo可以轻松复制的。</blockquote> In terms of growth though, Venmo can go much farther. Originally, Venmo was conceived as a peer-to-peer payment system, but this is quickly moving to businesses too. Amazon.com (AMZN)&nbsp;will be accepting Venmo payments&nbsp;starting in 2022, and I believe this will see significant success.<blockquote>不过，就增长而言，Venmo可以走得更远。最初，Venmo被认为是一个点对点支付系统，但这也很快转移到企业。亚马逊(AMZN)将从2022年开始接受Venmo支付，我相信这将取得巨大成功。</blockquote> Venmo has a place in the mobile phones of 65 million people, and this is somethingPayPal can leverage to its advantage moving forward.<blockquote>Venmo在6500万人的手机中占有一席之地，这是PayPal可以利用的优势。</blockquote> The other big reason I will continue to holdPayPal is its incredible Balance Sheet, and all the growth opportunities this opens.PayPal has $13.29 billion in cash and negative net debt. It has a much stronger balance sheet than its most established peers, such as Mastercard Corporation (MA). It's now time forPayPal to put this money to good use to expand its platform, especially internationally, something we already got a taste of in the last investor presentation.<blockquote>我将继续持有PayPal的另一个重要原因是其令人难以置信的资产负债表，以及由此带来的所有增长机会。PayPal拥有132.9亿美元现金和负净债务。它的资产负债表比万事达卡公司（MA）等最成熟的同行要强大得多。现在是PayPal充分利用这笔资金来扩展其平台的时候了，特别是在国际上，我们已经在上次投资者演示中尝到了这一点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3484de41ef449aa085877ee9374fa00\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"648\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Investor Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：投资者介绍</blockquote> On September 7th, it was announced thatPayPal was acquiring Paidy, which uses artificial intelligence to find out the creditworthiness of its users and offers payment instalment plans. This is just one example of howPayPal can enter new markets and expand its footprint. Much like I argued before with Shopify,PayPal can now leverage Paidy to also push its other payment platforms into the Japanese market. I am very excited to see what other acquisitionsPayPal will make.<blockquote>9月7日，PayPal宣布收购Paidy，该公司使用人工智能来了解用户的信用度，并提供支付分期付款计划。这只是PayPal如何进入新市场并扩大其足迹的一个例子。就像我之前与Shopify争论的那样，PayPal现在可以利用Paidy将其其他支付平台推向日本市场。我很高兴看到PayPal还会进行哪些其他收购。</blockquote> Takeaway<blockquote>外卖</blockquote> In conclusion, and referring back to the thesis summary, I see no material reason why shares ofPayPal should continue to depreciate. Exogenous factors haven't changed, competition has always been tough and the company is still on track to deliver on its medium and long term growth targets.PayPal offers investors growth at a reasonable price, and that is hard to come by these days.<blockquote>总之，回到论文摘要，我认为PayPal的股价没有理由继续贬值。外生因素没有改变，竞争一直很激烈，公司仍有望实现中长期增长目标。PayPal以合理的价格为投资者提供增长，而这在当今很难实现。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal: Time To Go All In<blockquote>PayPal：是时候全力以赴了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal: Time To Go All In<blockquote>PayPal：是时候全力以赴了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-11-22 11:14\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>PayPal has fallen over 30% since its ATH due to poor guidance and increased competition concerns.</li> <li>I argue that PayPal is still on track to achieve its long-term goals, and competition, albeit fierce, is manageable.</li> <li>The potential of Venmo and PayPal's future acquisition are what keep me coming back for more.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71b7d55858c35eda92a04deae062ef8b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">South_agency/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>由于指导不力和竞争担忧加剧，PayPal自ATH以来股价已下跌超过30%。</li><li>我认为PayPal仍在实现其长期目标的轨道上，竞争尽管激烈，但是可控的。</li><li>Venmo和PayPal未来收购的潜力让我不断回来购买更多。</li></ul>South_agency/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> Thesis Summary<blockquote>论文摘要</blockquote> Seven months ago, we analyzedPayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) and concluded that our target price of $425 for 2025 made the $266 purchase give a compound return of 10.5% per year. At the time, we were forecasting revenue, earnings, and PE ratios to calculate the target price.<blockquote>七个月前，我们分析了PayPal Holdings Inc.(PYPL)，得出的结论是，我们2025年425美元的目标价使得266美元的收购每年复合回报率为10.5%。当时，我们正在预测收入、盈利和市盈率来计算目标价。</blockquote> Although our forecasted PE ratio based on its relation to Earnings suggested the price was a little high for that point in time, it seemed that the market was granting the company a higher valuation given its remarkably consistent track record.<blockquote>尽管我们根据其与收益的关系预测市盈率表明当时的价格有点高，但鉴于该公司非常一致的业绩记录，市场似乎给予了该公司更高的估值。</blockquote> It took very little smoothing to set historical revenue growth at a consistent 17.9% per year, and as for the earnings margin, net income was very close to 13.55% of revenue almost every year. The only two exceptions were one negative, in 2014, and one positive, in 2020, where the margin was 19.6%.<blockquote>几乎不需要任何平滑就将历史收入增长率设定在每年17.9%，至于利润率，净利润几乎每年都非常接近收入的13.55%。仅有的两个例外是2014年的负利率和2020年的正利率，利润率为19.6%。</blockquote> As the year 2021 has progressed,PayPal has dropped significantly, all the way down to $200. At this price, the $425 target for 2025 would give you a compound annual return of 20.1%. I can think of three possible explanations for this collapse:<blockquote>随着2021年的进展，PayPal大幅下跌，一路跌至200美元。按照这个价格，2025年425美元的目标将为您带来20.1%的复合年回报率。对于这种崩溃，我可以想到三种可能的解释：</blockquote> a) The price was ahead of its time, and 2020 over performance got investors thinking growth had accelerated and that the price would go higher than we were forecasting. Ultimately, an investment relying on growth that has not yet materialized requires higher returns, and if the company is growing 18%, the investor wants to make at least 18% on their investment.<blockquote>a)价格领先于时代，2020年的表现让投资者认为增长已经加速，价格将高于我们的预期。最终，依赖尚未实现的增长的投资需要更高的回报，如果公司增长18%，投资者希望从投资中获得至少18%的回报。</blockquote> b) There is a perceived risk of earnings growth slowing down significantly based on the company's performance after looking at financial reports from the first three quarters of 2021.<blockquote>b)在查看2021年前三季度的财务报告后，根据公司的业绩，认为盈利增长存在大幅放缓的风险。</blockquote> c) There is a perceived risk of growth slowing down significantly due to factors outside of the company's financial performance, based on a qualitative analysis of the company and its addressable market.<blockquote>c)根据对公司及其目标市场的定性分析，由于公司财务业绩以外的因素，存在增长显着放缓的风险。</blockquote> If the correct answer is A, this is a great investment. If the logic feels compelling enough you should buy now and enjoy your 20% return over the years. I am going to focus on the other two scenarios, where we need to think about whether the business itself is actually in trouble.<blockquote>如果正确答案是A，这是一项伟大的投资。如果逻辑足够令人信服，您应该现在购买并享受多年来20%的回报。我将重点讨论另外两种情况，在这两种情况下，我们需要考虑企业本身是否真的陷入了困境。</blockquote> 2021 Financial Performance<blockquote>二零二一年财务表现</blockquote> Our previous analysis onPayPal was based on revenue and net income, as per GAAP figures up to 2020. Here I am going to look at the results of the first three quarters of 2021 to see if the results are disappointing.<blockquote>我们之前对PayPal的分析是基于截至2020年的GAAP数据的收入和净利润。这里我要看看2021年前三季度的业绩，看看业绩是否令人失望。</blockquote> First off, we have revenue growth. Indeed, quarter on quarter it doesn't look great, but this is not uncommon inPayPal's history of seasonality. If you look at the chart below, you can see that revenue grows the most in the fourth quarter, always drops in the first (QoQ), and has mixed results from the first to the third. Also, to continue on the 17.9% growth trend, revenue in the fourth quarter would only have to be %6.65 billion less than 8% higher than in the third quarter.<blockquote>首先，我们有收入增长。事实上，环比来看，情况并不乐观，但这在PayPal的季节性历史中并不罕见。如果你看下图，你可以看到第四季度收入增长最多，第一季度（环比）总是下降，并且从第一季度到第三季度的结果好坏参半。此外，要继续保持17.9%的增长趋势，第四季度的收入只需达到66.5亿美元，比第三季度增长不到8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fba8cbaa13348012cc020a72a4ecd1c\" tg-width=\"283\" tg-height=\"170\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。</blockquote> It appears that all is good with revenue growth so far and 2021 looks to deliver once again on the near 20% revenue growth figure. Let's take a look at earnings. So far in the first 3 quarters of 2021, earnings have been, just as in 2020, much higher than the previous trend of 13.5% of revenue. So far, earnings are between 17.5 and 19% of revenue, with an average of 18.3%. It is true that this was 19.6% in 2020, but it also means that we can no longer reasonably consider 2020 an anomaly in that respect.<blockquote>到目前为止，收入增长似乎一切顺利，2021年有望再次实现近20%的收入增长。我们来看看收益。到目前为止，2021年前3个季度的盈利与2020年一样，远高于之前占收入13.5%的趋势。到目前为止，盈利占收入的17.5%至19%之间，平均为18.3%。诚然，2020年这一比例为19.6%，但这也意味着我们不能再合理地认为2020年在这方面是一个异常现象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65fdec19cf0bd680067fed0f3ac34f92\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"290\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。2021年的数字是基于前3个季度的估计。</blockquote> Looking at these figures, the only thing that could worry investors is year-on-year growth rates. If you look at the table below you can see the growth rates of revenue and earnings for&nbsp;Q3 2021, YTD or YoY and with the 1-year growth rate or the 2-year CAGR.<blockquote>从这些数字来看，投资者唯一可能担心的是同比增长率。如果您查看下表，您可以看到2021年第三季度、年初至今或同比的收入和收益增长率以及1年增长率或2年CAGR。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c30583b007f9682b8b5c78496897f61d\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"145\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。</blockquote> This gives a clue of what might be the problem, as year-on-year growth rates in the third quarter look significantly worse than average, especially in earnings growth. However, if you take into account that 2020 Q3 was an exceptionally good quarter, it seems likePayPal is being punished for how good results were in 2020. If you look at the 2-year growth, results seem great, especially in earnings (it is also true that Q3 2019 was exceptionally bad, but one argument is as valid as the other).<blockquote>这为问题可能出在哪里提供了线索，因为第三季度的同比增长率看起来明显低于平均水平，尤其是在盈利增长方面。然而，如果你考虑到2020年第三季度是一个非常好的季度，那么PayPal似乎因2020年的良好业绩而受到惩罚。如果你看看两年的增长，结果似乎很好，尤其是在盈利方面（2019年第三季度确实异常糟糕，但一个论点和另一个一样有效）。</blockquote> To illustrate this point, imagine that net income had been lower in 2020. The chart below contains the same figures as the one before, except that 2020 net income has been arbitrarily reduced to fit a more growing pattern.<blockquote>为了说明这一点，想象一下2020年净利润较低。下图包含与上一张相同的数字，只是2020年净利润被任意减少以适应更增长的模式。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b14c61672e1db2d56752a6a07d858b3\" tg-width=\"483\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. *The figure from 2014 has been removed and the net income figure from 2020 has been reduced to illustrate the point explained above. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。*二零一四年的数字已删除，而二零二零年的净收入数字已减少，以说明上文所解释的要点。2021年的数字是基于前3个季度的估计。</blockquote> The result would be a much more promising-looking trend altogether. When taking short-term growth figures into account when valuing a company one should wonder if they are punishing bad results or actually punishing good results. All considered it doesn't seem like there is a reasonable cause in the observed financial performance ofPayPal that should make you think prospects are worse than they were 9 months ago.<blockquote>结果将是一个看起来更有希望的趋势。当在评估一家公司时考虑短期增长数据时，人们应该怀疑他们是在惩罚糟糕的结果还是实际上在惩罚好的结果。总的来说，观察到的PayPal财务表现似乎没有合理的原因让您认为前景比9个月前更糟糕。</blockquote> Is market growth a concern?<blockquote>市场增长令人担忧吗？</blockquote> With that said, the only other possible explanation is that, indeed, there are external factors that will prevent&nbsp;PayPal from expanding at the previously perceived rate. The stock was recently&nbsp;downgraded by Bernstein, claiming \"market share growth concerns\". The stock has slid over 30% since it reached an ATH at $300 makingPayPal's valuation that much more attractive. But how does this weigh against concerns over market growth?<blockquote>话虽如此，唯一其他可能的解释是，确实有外部因素会阻止PayPal以之前认为的速度扩张。该股最近被伯恩斯坦下调评级，声称“市场份额增长担忧”。自达到300美元的ATH以来，该股已下跌超过30%，这使得PayPal的估值更具吸引力。但这如何抵消对市场增长的担忧呢？</blockquote> \"Fintech\" is no longer a novel concept, and in the last few years, we have seen hundreds if not thousands of companies come out with similar versions of whatPayPal offers. To say the market is saturated, might even be an understatement, butPayPal remains the king of the hill.<blockquote>“金融科技”不再是一个新颖的概念，在过去几年中，我们已经看到数百家甚至数千家公司推出了PayPal提供的类似版本。说市场已经饱和甚至可能是一种保守的说法，但PayPal仍然是山中之王。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/462ce82e5652c8762836c4ef98dcdee5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: datanyze.com<blockquote>资料来源：datanyze.com</blockquote> In terms of Payment Processing Software,PayPal has over 50% of the market, and I say that because Braintree, which takes the fifth position, is also owned byPayPal. The problemPayPal faces though, isn't coming from the hundreds of startups and newly IPO'd companies, but by the large players which we also see on his list.<blockquote>在支付处理软件方面，PayPal拥有超过50%的市场份额，我这么说是因为排名第五的Braintree也归PayPal所有。然而，PayPal面临的问题并不是来自数百家初创公司和新上市的公司，而是来自我们在他的名单上也看到的大公司。</blockquote> This includes AmazonPay, Shopify Inc.'s (SHOP) ShopPay and even Google Pay. Arguably, some of these services have an advantage, in that their payment offerings complement other services. Shopify, for example, incentivizes its users and merchants to use its payment processing platforms, and Google has the advantage of being deeply embedded in a lot of the things we do.<blockquote>这包括AmazonPay、Shopify Inc.(SHOP)的ShopPay甚至Google Pay。可以说，其中一些服务具有优势，因为它们的支付产品补充了其他服务。例如，Shopify激励其用户和商家使用其支付处理平台，而谷歌的优势在于深入参与我们所做的许多事情。</blockquote> In this regard, Shopify and Amazon, for example, have a big advantage, in that they control where much of the money online is spent and can use this to their advantage. However, the payment system is not just limited to eCommerce.PayPal has a presence in many other areas, such as international transfers/transactions and physical payments.PayPal can be used as a bank, and there are also advantages to being a complete financial service focused company, just like there are advantages to having an ecosystem of buyers and sellers on your platform.<blockquote>例如，在这方面，Shopify和亚马逊有很大的优势，因为他们控制着大部分在线资金的花费，并可以利用这一点。然而，支付系统不仅仅局限于电子商务。PayPal在许多其他领域都有业务，如国际转账/交易和实物支付。PayPal可以用作银行，作为一家专注于完整金融服务的公司也有优势，就像在你的平台上拥有买家和卖家的生态系统也有优势一样。</blockquote> Yes, the market is saturated, and growth will become a challenge, but I still believe thatPayPal can succeed long-term and I'll explain why.<blockquote>是的，市场已经饱和，增长将成为一个挑战，但我仍然相信PayPal可以长期成功，我会解释原因。</blockquote> Two more reasons I will hold on toPayPal<blockquote>还有两个我会坚持下去的理由PayPal</blockquote> My analysis continues to support thatPayPal is on track to deliver the growth and returns I expected weeks ago. In this regard,PayPal offers growth at a reasonable price. It is a profitable and well-established company that is going nowhere.<blockquote>我的分析继续支持PayPal有望实现我几周前预期的增长和回报。在这方面，PayPal以合理的价格提供增长。这是一家盈利且信誉良好的公司，但却一事无成。</blockquote> More specifically though, two factors make me especially bullish onPayPal; Venmo and the power of its Balance Sheet.<blockquote>更具体地说，有两个因素让我特别看好PayPal；Venmo及其资产负债表的力量。</blockquote> Starting with Venmo, this is perhaps the biggest reason why I thinkPayPal still holds plenty of value and growth potential. Venmo is one of the most popular payment Apps in the United States. In 2020 over&nbsp;$159 billion in transactions&nbsp;were processed through Venmo in 2020, and the App is on track to deliver $900 million in revenues in 2021 according to the latest earnings call.<blockquote>从Venmo开始，这也许是我认为PayPal仍然拥有巨大价值和增长潜力的最大原因。Venmo是美国最受欢迎的支付应用之一。根据最新的收益看涨期权，2020年通过Venmo处理了超过1590亿美元的交易，该应用程序有望在2021年实现9亿美元的收入。</blockquote> But Venmo is barely scratching the surface of what it can achieve, both in terms of growth and monetization. When it comes to the latter, we can see that Venmo can still come a long way in terms of monetization if we compare it to Square Inc.'s (SQ) CashApp.According to estimates, CashApp produced $54 per user in 2020, while Venmo only made $12 from each active user. There are slight differences in transaction costs, but most of this comes from the fact that CashApp is used more for cryptocurrency transactions. This is something Venmo can easily replicate.<blockquote>但无论是在增长还是货币化方面，Venmo都只是触及了其所能实现的表面。谈到后者，如果我们将Venmo与Square Inc.(SQ)的CashApp进行比较，我们可以看到Venmo在货币化方面仍有很长的路要走。据估计，CashApp在2020年为每个用户带来了54美元的收入，而Venmo仅从每个活跃用户身上获得了12美元的收入。交易成本略有差异，但这大部分来自于CashApp更多地用于加密货币交易。这是Venmo可以轻松复制的。</blockquote> In terms of growth though, Venmo can go much farther. Originally, Venmo was conceived as a peer-to-peer payment system, but this is quickly moving to businesses too. Amazon.com (AMZN)&nbsp;will be accepting Venmo payments&nbsp;starting in 2022, and I believe this will see significant success.<blockquote>不过，就增长而言，Venmo可以走得更远。最初，Venmo被认为是一个点对点支付系统，但这也很快转移到企业。亚马逊(AMZN)将从2022年开始接受Venmo支付，我相信这将取得巨大成功。</blockquote> Venmo has a place in the mobile phones of 65 million people, and this is somethingPayPal can leverage to its advantage moving forward.<blockquote>Venmo在6500万人的手机中占有一席之地，这是PayPal可以利用的优势。</blockquote> The other big reason I will continue to holdPayPal is its incredible Balance Sheet, and all the growth opportunities this opens.PayPal has $13.29 billion in cash and negative net debt. It has a much stronger balance sheet than its most established peers, such as Mastercard Corporation (MA). It's now time forPayPal to put this money to good use to expand its platform, especially internationally, something we already got a taste of in the last investor presentation.<blockquote>我将继续持有PayPal的另一个重要原因是其令人难以置信的资产负债表，以及由此带来的所有增长机会。PayPal拥有132.9亿美元现金和负净债务。它的资产负债表比万事达卡公司（MA）等最成熟的同行要强大得多。现在是PayPal充分利用这笔资金来扩展其平台的时候了，特别是在国际上，我们已经在上次投资者演示中尝到了这一点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3484de41ef449aa085877ee9374fa00\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"648\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Investor Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：投资者介绍</blockquote> On September 7th, it was announced thatPayPal was acquiring Paidy, which uses artificial intelligence to find out the creditworthiness of its users and offers payment instalment plans. This is just one example of howPayPal can enter new markets and expand its footprint. Much like I argued before with Shopify,PayPal can now leverage Paidy to also push its other payment platforms into the Japanese market. I am very excited to see what other acquisitionsPayPal will make.<blockquote>9月7日，PayPal宣布收购Paidy，该公司使用人工智能来了解用户的信用度，并提供支付分期付款计划。这只是PayPal如何进入新市场并扩大其足迹的一个例子。就像我之前与Shopify争论的那样，PayPal现在可以利用Paidy将其其他支付平台推向日本市场。我很高兴看到PayPal还会进行哪些其他收购。</blockquote> Takeaway<blockquote>外卖</blockquote> In conclusion, and referring back to the thesis summary, I see no material reason why shares ofPayPal should continue to depreciate. Exogenous factors haven't changed, competition has always been tough and the company is still on track to deliver on its medium and long term growth targets.PayPal offers investors growth at a reasonable price, and that is hard to come by these days.<blockquote>总之，回到论文摘要，我认为PayPal的股价没有理由继续贬值。外生因素没有改变，竞争一直很激烈，公司仍有望实现中长期增长目标。PayPal以合理的价格为投资者提供增长，而这在当今很难实现。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4470923-paypal-time-to-go-all-in\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4470923-paypal-time-to-go-all-in","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158506816","content_text":"Summary\n\nPayPal has fallen over 30% since its ATH due to poor guidance and increased competition concerns.\nI argue that PayPal is still on track to achieve its long-term goals, and competition, albeit fierce, is manageable.\nThe potential of Venmo and PayPal's future acquisition are what keep me coming back for more.\n\nSouth_agency/E+ via Getty Images\nThesis Summary\nSeven months ago, we analyzedPayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) and concluded that our target price of $425 for 2025 made the $266 purchase give a compound return of 10.5% per year. At the time, we were forecasting revenue, earnings, and PE ratios to calculate the target price.\nAlthough our forecasted PE ratio based on its relation to Earnings suggested the price was a little high for that point in time, it seemed that the market was granting the company a higher valuation given its remarkably consistent track record.\nIt took very little smoothing to set historical revenue growth at a consistent 17.9% per year, and as for the earnings margin, net income was very close to 13.55% of revenue almost every year. The only two exceptions were one negative, in 2014, and one positive, in 2020, where the margin was 19.6%.\nAs the year 2021 has progressed,PayPal has dropped significantly, all the way down to $200. At this price, the $425 target for 2025 would give you a compound annual return of 20.1%. I can think of three possible explanations for this collapse:\na) The price was ahead of its time, and 2020 over performance got investors thinking growth had accelerated and that the price would go higher than we were forecasting. Ultimately, an investment relying on growth that has not yet materialized requires higher returns, and if the company is growing 18%, the investor wants to make at least 18% on their investment.\nb) There is a perceived risk of earnings growth slowing down significantly based on the company's performance after looking at financial reports from the first three quarters of 2021.\nc) There is a perceived risk of growth slowing down significantly due to factors outside of the company's financial performance, based on a qualitative analysis of the company and its addressable market.\nIf the correct answer is A, this is a great investment. If the logic feels compelling enough you should buy now and enjoy your 20% return over the years. I am going to focus on the other two scenarios, where we need to think about whether the business itself is actually in trouble.\n2021 Financial Performance\nOur previous analysis onPayPal was based on revenue and net income, as per GAAP figures up to 2020. Here I am going to look at the results of the first three quarters of 2021 to see if the results are disappointing.\nFirst off, we have revenue growth. Indeed, quarter on quarter it doesn't look great, but this is not uncommon inPayPal's history of seasonality. If you look at the chart below, you can see that revenue grows the most in the fourth quarter, always drops in the first (QoQ), and has mixed results from the first to the third. Also, to continue on the 17.9% growth trend, revenue in the fourth quarter would only have to be %6.65 billion less than 8% higher than in the third quarter.\nSource: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions.\nIt appears that all is good with revenue growth so far and 2021 looks to deliver once again on the near 20% revenue growth figure. Let's take a look at earnings. So far in the first 3 quarters of 2021, earnings have been, just as in 2020, much higher than the previous trend of 13.5% of revenue. So far, earnings are between 17.5 and 19% of revenue, with an average of 18.3%. It is true that this was 19.6% in 2020, but it also means that we can no longer reasonably consider 2020 an anomaly in that respect.\nSource: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.\nLooking at these figures, the only thing that could worry investors is year-on-year growth rates. If you look at the table below you can see the growth rates of revenue and earnings for Q3 2021, YTD or YoY and with the 1-year growth rate or the 2-year CAGR.\nSource: Author's work based on financial reports.\nThis gives a clue of what might be the problem, as year-on-year growth rates in the third quarter look significantly worse than average, especially in earnings growth. However, if you take into account that 2020 Q3 was an exceptionally good quarter, it seems likePayPal is being punished for how good results were in 2020. If you look at the 2-year growth, results seem great, especially in earnings (it is also true that Q3 2019 was exceptionally bad, but one argument is as valid as the other).\nTo illustrate this point, imagine that net income had been lower in 2020. The chart below contains the same figures as the one before, except that 2020 net income has been arbitrarily reduced to fit a more growing pattern.\nSource: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. *The figure from 2014 has been removed and the net income figure from 2020 has been reduced to illustrate the point explained above. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.\nThe result would be a much more promising-looking trend altogether. When taking short-term growth figures into account when valuing a company one should wonder if they are punishing bad results or actually punishing good results. All considered it doesn't seem like there is a reasonable cause in the observed financial performance ofPayPal that should make you think prospects are worse than they were 9 months ago.\nIs market growth a concern?\nWith that said, the only other possible explanation is that, indeed, there are external factors that will prevent PayPal from expanding at the previously perceived rate. The stock was recently downgraded by Bernstein, claiming \"market share growth concerns\". The stock has slid over 30% since it reached an ATH at $300 makingPayPal's valuation that much more attractive. But how does this weigh against concerns over market growth?\n\"Fintech\" is no longer a novel concept, and in the last few years, we have seen hundreds if not thousands of companies come out with similar versions of whatPayPal offers. To say the market is saturated, might even be an understatement, butPayPal remains the king of the hill.\nSource: datanyze.com\nIn terms of Payment Processing Software,PayPal has over 50% of the market, and I say that because Braintree, which takes the fifth position, is also owned byPayPal. The problemPayPal faces though, isn't coming from the hundreds of startups and newly IPO'd companies, but by the large players which we also see on his list.\nThis includes AmazonPay, Shopify Inc.'s (SHOP) ShopPay and even Google Pay. Arguably, some of these services have an advantage, in that their payment offerings complement other services. Shopify, for example, incentivizes its users and merchants to use its payment processing platforms, and Google has the advantage of being deeply embedded in a lot of the things we do.\nIn this regard, Shopify and Amazon, for example, have a big advantage, in that they control where much of the money online is spent and can use this to their advantage. However, the payment system is not just limited to eCommerce.PayPal has a presence in many other areas, such as international transfers/transactions and physical payments.PayPal can be used as a bank, and there are also advantages to being a complete financial service focused company, just like there are advantages to having an ecosystem of buyers and sellers on your platform.\nYes, the market is saturated, and growth will become a challenge, but I still believe thatPayPal can succeed long-term and I'll explain why.\nTwo more reasons I will hold on toPayPal\nMy analysis continues to support thatPayPal is on track to deliver the growth and returns I expected weeks ago. In this regard,PayPal offers growth at a reasonable price. It is a profitable and well-established company that is going nowhere.\nMore specifically though, two factors make me especially bullish onPayPal; Venmo and the power of its Balance Sheet.\nStarting with Venmo, this is perhaps the biggest reason why I thinkPayPal still holds plenty of value and growth potential. Venmo is one of the most popular payment Apps in the United States. In 2020 over $159 billion in transactions were processed through Venmo in 2020, and the App is on track to deliver $900 million in revenues in 2021 according to the latest earnings call.\nBut Venmo is barely scratching the surface of what it can achieve, both in terms of growth and monetization. When it comes to the latter, we can see that Venmo can still come a long way in terms of monetization if we compare it to Square Inc.'s (SQ) CashApp.According to estimates, CashApp produced $54 per user in 2020, while Venmo only made $12 from each active user. There are slight differences in transaction costs, but most of this comes from the fact that CashApp is used more for cryptocurrency transactions. This is something Venmo can easily replicate.\nIn terms of growth though, Venmo can go much farther. Originally, Venmo was conceived as a peer-to-peer payment system, but this is quickly moving to businesses too. Amazon.com (AMZN) will be accepting Venmo payments starting in 2022, and I believe this will see significant success.\nVenmo has a place in the mobile phones of 65 million people, and this is somethingPayPal can leverage to its advantage moving forward.\nThe other big reason I will continue to holdPayPal is its incredible Balance Sheet, and all the growth opportunities this opens.PayPal has $13.29 billion in cash and negative net debt. It has a much stronger balance sheet than its most established peers, such as Mastercard Corporation (MA). It's now time forPayPal to put this money to good use to expand its platform, especially internationally, something we already got a taste of in the last investor presentation.\nSource: Investor Presentation\nOn September 7th, it was announced thatPayPal was acquiring Paidy, which uses artificial intelligence to find out the creditworthiness of its users and offers payment instalment plans. This is just one example of howPayPal can enter new markets and expand its footprint. Much like I argued before with Shopify,PayPal can now leverage Paidy to also push its other payment platforms into the Japanese market. I am very excited to see what other acquisitionsPayPal will make.\nTakeaway\nIn conclusion, and referring back to the thesis summary, I see no material reason why shares ofPayPal should continue to depreciate. Exogenous factors haven't changed, competition has always been tough and the company is still on track to deliver on its medium and long term growth targets.PayPal offers investors growth at a reasonable price, and that is hard to come by these days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":872496620,"gmtCreate":1637556426997,"gmtModify":1637556427367,"author":{"id":"3576888762442253","authorId":"3576888762442253","name":"Barbarazhao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40f6fdeabe0e8cac300f1fd2a17eb3ac","vip":1,"crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576888762442253","authorIdStr":"3576888762442253"},"htmlText":"Hope so","listText":"Hope so","text":"Hope so","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872496620","repostId":1158506816,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158506816","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637550842,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158506816?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-22 11:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal: Time To Go All In<blockquote>PayPal：是时候全力以赴了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158506816","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPayPal has fallen over 30% since its ATH due to poor guidance and increased competition con","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>PayPal has fallen over 30% since its ATH due to poor guidance and increased competition concerns.</li> <li>I argue that PayPal is still on track to achieve its long-term goals, and competition, albeit fierce, is manageable.</li> <li>The potential of Venmo and PayPal's future acquisition are what keep me coming back for more.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71b7d55858c35eda92a04deae062ef8b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">South_agency/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>由于指导不力和竞争担忧加剧，PayPal自ATH以来股价已下跌超过30%。</li><li>我认为PayPal仍在实现其长期目标的轨道上，竞争尽管激烈，但是可控的。</li><li>Venmo和PayPal未来收购的潜力让我不断回来购买更多。</li></ul>South_agency/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> Thesis Summary<blockquote>论文摘要</blockquote> Seven months ago, we analyzedPayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) and concluded that our target price of $425 for 2025 made the $266 purchase give a compound return of 10.5% per year. At the time, we were forecasting revenue, earnings, and PE ratios to calculate the target price.<blockquote>七个月前，我们分析了PayPal Holdings Inc.(PYPL)，得出的结论是，我们2025年425美元的目标价使得266美元的收购每年复合回报率为10.5%。当时，我们正在预测收入、盈利和市盈率来计算目标价。</blockquote> Although our forecasted PE ratio based on its relation to Earnings suggested the price was a little high for that point in time, it seemed that the market was granting the company a higher valuation given its remarkably consistent track record.<blockquote>尽管我们根据其与收益的关系预测市盈率表明当时的价格有点高，但鉴于该公司非常一致的业绩记录，市场似乎给予了该公司更高的估值。</blockquote> It took very little smoothing to set historical revenue growth at a consistent 17.9% per year, and as for the earnings margin, net income was very close to 13.55% of revenue almost every year. The only two exceptions were one negative, in 2014, and one positive, in 2020, where the margin was 19.6%.<blockquote>几乎不需要任何平滑就将历史收入增长率设定在每年17.9%，至于利润率，净利润几乎每年都非常接近收入的13.55%。仅有的两个例外是2014年的负利率和2020年的正利率，利润率为19.6%。</blockquote> As the year 2021 has progressed,PayPal has dropped significantly, all the way down to $200. At this price, the $425 target for 2025 would give you a compound annual return of 20.1%. I can think of three possible explanations for this collapse:<blockquote>随着2021年的进展，PayPal大幅下跌，一路跌至200美元。按照这个价格，2025年425美元的目标将为您带来20.1%的复合年回报率。对于这种崩溃，我可以想到三种可能的解释：</blockquote> a) The price was ahead of its time, and 2020 over performance got investors thinking growth had accelerated and that the price would go higher than we were forecasting. Ultimately, an investment relying on growth that has not yet materialized requires higher returns, and if the company is growing 18%, the investor wants to make at least 18% on their investment.<blockquote>a)价格领先于时代，2020年的表现让投资者认为增长已经加速，价格将高于我们的预期。最终，依赖尚未实现的增长的投资需要更高的回报，如果公司增长18%，投资者希望从投资中获得至少18%的回报。</blockquote> b) There is a perceived risk of earnings growth slowing down significantly based on the company's performance after looking at financial reports from the first three quarters of 2021.<blockquote>b)在查看2021年前三季度的财务报告后，根据公司的业绩，认为盈利增长存在大幅放缓的风险。</blockquote> c) There is a perceived risk of growth slowing down significantly due to factors outside of the company's financial performance, based on a qualitative analysis of the company and its addressable market.<blockquote>c)根据对公司及其目标市场的定性分析，由于公司财务业绩以外的因素，存在增长显着放缓的风险。</blockquote> If the correct answer is A, this is a great investment. If the logic feels compelling enough you should buy now and enjoy your 20% return over the years. I am going to focus on the other two scenarios, where we need to think about whether the business itself is actually in trouble.<blockquote>如果正确答案是A，这是一项伟大的投资。如果逻辑足够令人信服，您应该现在购买并享受多年来20%的回报。我将重点讨论另外两种情况，在这两种情况下，我们需要考虑企业本身是否真的陷入了困境。</blockquote> 2021 Financial Performance<blockquote>二零二一年财务表现</blockquote> Our previous analysis onPayPal was based on revenue and net income, as per GAAP figures up to 2020. Here I am going to look at the results of the first three quarters of 2021 to see if the results are disappointing.<blockquote>我们之前对PayPal的分析是基于截至2020年的GAAP数据的收入和净利润。这里我要看看2021年前三季度的业绩，看看业绩是否令人失望。</blockquote> First off, we have revenue growth. Indeed, quarter on quarter it doesn't look great, but this is not uncommon inPayPal's history of seasonality. If you look at the chart below, you can see that revenue grows the most in the fourth quarter, always drops in the first (QoQ), and has mixed results from the first to the third. Also, to continue on the 17.9% growth trend, revenue in the fourth quarter would only have to be %6.65 billion less than 8% higher than in the third quarter.<blockquote>首先，我们有收入增长。事实上，环比来看，情况并不乐观，但这在PayPal的季节性历史中并不罕见。如果你看下图，你可以看到第四季度收入增长最多，第一季度（环比）总是下降，并且从第一季度到第三季度的结果好坏参半。此外，要继续保持17.9%的增长趋势，第四季度的收入只需达到66.5亿美元，比第三季度增长不到8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fba8cbaa13348012cc020a72a4ecd1c\" tg-width=\"283\" tg-height=\"170\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。</blockquote> It appears that all is good with revenue growth so far and 2021 looks to deliver once again on the near 20% revenue growth figure. Let's take a look at earnings. So far in the first 3 quarters of 2021, earnings have been, just as in 2020, much higher than the previous trend of 13.5% of revenue. So far, earnings are between 17.5 and 19% of revenue, with an average of 18.3%. It is true that this was 19.6% in 2020, but it also means that we can no longer reasonably consider 2020 an anomaly in that respect.<blockquote>到目前为止，收入增长似乎一切顺利，2021年有望再次实现近20%的收入增长。我们来看看收益。到目前为止，2021年前3个季度的盈利与2020年一样，远高于之前占收入13.5%的趋势。到目前为止，盈利占收入的17.5%至19%之间，平均为18.3%。诚然，2020年这一比例为19.6%，但这也意味着我们不能再合理地认为2020年在这方面是一个异常现象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65fdec19cf0bd680067fed0f3ac34f92\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"290\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。2021年的数字是基于前3个季度的估计。</blockquote> Looking at these figures, the only thing that could worry investors is year-on-year growth rates. If you look at the table below you can see the growth rates of revenue and earnings for&nbsp;Q3 2021, YTD or YoY and with the 1-year growth rate or the 2-year CAGR.<blockquote>从这些数字来看，投资者唯一可能担心的是同比增长率。如果您查看下表，您可以看到2021年第三季度、年初至今或同比的收入和收益增长率以及1年增长率或2年CAGR。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c30583b007f9682b8b5c78496897f61d\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"145\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。</blockquote> This gives a clue of what might be the problem, as year-on-year growth rates in the third quarter look significantly worse than average, especially in earnings growth. However, if you take into account that 2020 Q3 was an exceptionally good quarter, it seems likePayPal is being punished for how good results were in 2020. If you look at the 2-year growth, results seem great, especially in earnings (it is also true that Q3 2019 was exceptionally bad, but one argument is as valid as the other).<blockquote>这为问题可能出在哪里提供了线索，因为第三季度的同比增长率看起来明显低于平均水平，尤其是在盈利增长方面。然而，如果你考虑到2020年第三季度是一个非常好的季度，那么PayPal似乎因2020年的良好业绩而受到惩罚。如果你看看两年的增长，结果似乎很好，尤其是在盈利方面（2019年第三季度确实异常糟糕，但一个论点和另一个一样有效）。</blockquote> To illustrate this point, imagine that net income had been lower in 2020. The chart below contains the same figures as the one before, except that 2020 net income has been arbitrarily reduced to fit a more growing pattern.<blockquote>为了说明这一点，想象一下2020年净利润较低。下图包含与上一张相同的数字，只是2020年净利润被任意减少以适应更增长的模式。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b14c61672e1db2d56752a6a07d858b3\" tg-width=\"483\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. *The figure from 2014 has been removed and the net income figure from 2020 has been reduced to illustrate the point explained above. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。*二零一四年的数字已删除，而二零二零年的净收入数字已减少，以说明上文所解释的要点。2021年的数字是基于前3个季度的估计。</blockquote> The result would be a much more promising-looking trend altogether. When taking short-term growth figures into account when valuing a company one should wonder if they are punishing bad results or actually punishing good results. All considered it doesn't seem like there is a reasonable cause in the observed financial performance ofPayPal that should make you think prospects are worse than they were 9 months ago.<blockquote>结果将是一个看起来更有希望的趋势。当在评估一家公司时考虑短期增长数据时，人们应该怀疑他们是在惩罚糟糕的结果还是实际上在惩罚好的结果。总的来说，观察到的PayPal财务表现似乎没有合理的原因让您认为前景比9个月前更糟糕。</blockquote> Is market growth a concern?<blockquote>市场增长令人担忧吗？</blockquote> With that said, the only other possible explanation is that, indeed, there are external factors that will prevent&nbsp;PayPal from expanding at the previously perceived rate. The stock was recently&nbsp;downgraded by Bernstein, claiming \"market share growth concerns\". The stock has slid over 30% since it reached an ATH at $300 makingPayPal's valuation that much more attractive. But how does this weigh against concerns over market growth?<blockquote>话虽如此，唯一其他可能的解释是，确实有外部因素会阻止PayPal以之前认为的速度扩张。该股最近被伯恩斯坦下调评级，声称“市场份额增长担忧”。自达到300美元的ATH以来，该股已下跌超过30%，这使得PayPal的估值更具吸引力。但这如何抵消对市场增长的担忧呢？</blockquote> \"Fintech\" is no longer a novel concept, and in the last few years, we have seen hundreds if not thousands of companies come out with similar versions of whatPayPal offers. To say the market is saturated, might even be an understatement, butPayPal remains the king of the hill.<blockquote>“金融科技”不再是一个新颖的概念，在过去几年中，我们已经看到数百家甚至数千家公司推出了PayPal提供的类似版本。说市场已经饱和甚至可能是一种保守的说法，但PayPal仍然是山中之王。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/462ce82e5652c8762836c4ef98dcdee5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: datanyze.com<blockquote>资料来源：datanyze.com</blockquote> In terms of Payment Processing Software,PayPal has over 50% of the market, and I say that because Braintree, which takes the fifth position, is also owned byPayPal. The problemPayPal faces though, isn't coming from the hundreds of startups and newly IPO'd companies, but by the large players which we also see on his list.<blockquote>在支付处理软件方面，PayPal拥有超过50%的市场份额，我这么说是因为排名第五的Braintree也归PayPal所有。然而，PayPal面临的问题并不是来自数百家初创公司和新上市的公司，而是来自我们在他的名单上也看到的大公司。</blockquote> This includes AmazonPay, Shopify Inc.'s (SHOP) ShopPay and even Google Pay. Arguably, some of these services have an advantage, in that their payment offerings complement other services. Shopify, for example, incentivizes its users and merchants to use its payment processing platforms, and Google has the advantage of being deeply embedded in a lot of the things we do.<blockquote>这包括AmazonPay、Shopify Inc.(SHOP)的ShopPay甚至Google Pay。可以说，其中一些服务具有优势，因为它们的支付产品补充了其他服务。例如，Shopify激励其用户和商家使用其支付处理平台，而谷歌的优势在于深入参与我们所做的许多事情。</blockquote> In this regard, Shopify and Amazon, for example, have a big advantage, in that they control where much of the money online is spent and can use this to their advantage. However, the payment system is not just limited to eCommerce.PayPal has a presence in many other areas, such as international transfers/transactions and physical payments.PayPal can be used as a bank, and there are also advantages to being a complete financial service focused company, just like there are advantages to having an ecosystem of buyers and sellers on your platform.<blockquote>例如，在这方面，Shopify和亚马逊有很大的优势，因为他们控制着大部分在线资金的花费，并可以利用这一点。然而，支付系统不仅仅局限于电子商务。PayPal在许多其他领域都有业务，如国际转账/交易和实物支付。PayPal可以用作银行，作为一家专注于完整金融服务的公司也有优势，就像在你的平台上拥有买家和卖家的生态系统也有优势一样。</blockquote> Yes, the market is saturated, and growth will become a challenge, but I still believe thatPayPal can succeed long-term and I'll explain why.<blockquote>是的，市场已经饱和，增长将成为一个挑战，但我仍然相信PayPal可以长期成功，我会解释原因。</blockquote> Two more reasons I will hold on toPayPal<blockquote>还有两个我会坚持下去的理由PayPal</blockquote> My analysis continues to support thatPayPal is on track to deliver the growth and returns I expected weeks ago. In this regard,PayPal offers growth at a reasonable price. It is a profitable and well-established company that is going nowhere.<blockquote>我的分析继续支持PayPal有望实现我几周前预期的增长和回报。在这方面，PayPal以合理的价格提供增长。这是一家盈利且信誉良好的公司，但却一事无成。</blockquote> More specifically though, two factors make me especially bullish onPayPal; Venmo and the power of its Balance Sheet.<blockquote>更具体地说，有两个因素让我特别看好PayPal；Venmo及其资产负债表的力量。</blockquote> Starting with Venmo, this is perhaps the biggest reason why I thinkPayPal still holds plenty of value and growth potential. Venmo is one of the most popular payment Apps in the United States. In 2020 over&nbsp;$159 billion in transactions&nbsp;were processed through Venmo in 2020, and the App is on track to deliver $900 million in revenues in 2021 according to the latest earnings call.<blockquote>从Venmo开始，这也许是我认为PayPal仍然拥有巨大价值和增长潜力的最大原因。Venmo是美国最受欢迎的支付应用之一。根据最新的收益看涨期权，2020年通过Venmo处理了超过1590亿美元的交易，该应用程序有望在2021年实现9亿美元的收入。</blockquote> But Venmo is barely scratching the surface of what it can achieve, both in terms of growth and monetization. When it comes to the latter, we can see that Venmo can still come a long way in terms of monetization if we compare it to Square Inc.'s (SQ) CashApp.According to estimates, CashApp produced $54 per user in 2020, while Venmo only made $12 from each active user. There are slight differences in transaction costs, but most of this comes from the fact that CashApp is used more for cryptocurrency transactions. This is something Venmo can easily replicate.<blockquote>但无论是在增长还是货币化方面，Venmo都只是触及了其所能实现的表面。谈到后者，如果我们将Venmo与Square Inc.(SQ)的CashApp进行比较，我们可以看到Venmo在货币化方面仍有很长的路要走。据估计，CashApp在2020年为每个用户带来了54美元的收入，而Venmo仅从每个活跃用户身上获得了12美元的收入。交易成本略有差异，但这大部分来自于CashApp更多地用于加密货币交易。这是Venmo可以轻松复制的。</blockquote> In terms of growth though, Venmo can go much farther. Originally, Venmo was conceived as a peer-to-peer payment system, but this is quickly moving to businesses too. Amazon.com (AMZN)&nbsp;will be accepting Venmo payments&nbsp;starting in 2022, and I believe this will see significant success.<blockquote>不过，就增长而言，Venmo可以走得更远。最初，Venmo被认为是一个点对点支付系统，但这也很快转移到企业。亚马逊(AMZN)将从2022年开始接受Venmo支付，我相信这将取得巨大成功。</blockquote> Venmo has a place in the mobile phones of 65 million people, and this is somethingPayPal can leverage to its advantage moving forward.<blockquote>Venmo在6500万人的手机中占有一席之地，这是PayPal可以利用的优势。</blockquote> The other big reason I will continue to holdPayPal is its incredible Balance Sheet, and all the growth opportunities this opens.PayPal has $13.29 billion in cash and negative net debt. It has a much stronger balance sheet than its most established peers, such as Mastercard Corporation (MA). It's now time forPayPal to put this money to good use to expand its platform, especially internationally, something we already got a taste of in the last investor presentation.<blockquote>我将继续持有PayPal的另一个重要原因是其令人难以置信的资产负债表，以及由此带来的所有增长机会。PayPal拥有132.9亿美元现金和负净债务。它的资产负债表比万事达卡公司（MA）等最成熟的同行要强大得多。现在是PayPal充分利用这笔资金来扩展其平台的时候了，特别是在国际上，我们已经在上次投资者演示中尝到了这一点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3484de41ef449aa085877ee9374fa00\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"648\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Investor Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：投资者介绍</blockquote> On September 7th, it was announced thatPayPal was acquiring Paidy, which uses artificial intelligence to find out the creditworthiness of its users and offers payment instalment plans. This is just one example of howPayPal can enter new markets and expand its footprint. Much like I argued before with Shopify,PayPal can now leverage Paidy to also push its other payment platforms into the Japanese market. I am very excited to see what other acquisitionsPayPal will make.<blockquote>9月7日，PayPal宣布收购Paidy，该公司使用人工智能来了解用户的信用度，并提供支付分期付款计划。这只是PayPal如何进入新市场并扩大其足迹的一个例子。就像我之前与Shopify争论的那样，PayPal现在可以利用Paidy将其其他支付平台推向日本市场。我很高兴看到PayPal还会进行哪些其他收购。</blockquote> Takeaway<blockquote>外卖</blockquote> In conclusion, and referring back to the thesis summary, I see no material reason why shares ofPayPal should continue to depreciate. Exogenous factors haven't changed, competition has always been tough and the company is still on track to deliver on its medium and long term growth targets.PayPal offers investors growth at a reasonable price, and that is hard to come by these days.<blockquote>总之，回到论文摘要，我认为PayPal的股价没有理由继续贬值。外生因素没有改变，竞争一直很激烈，公司仍有望实现中长期增长目标。PayPal以合理的价格为投资者提供增长，而这在当今很难实现。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal: Time To Go All In<blockquote>PayPal：是时候全力以赴了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal: Time To Go All In<blockquote>PayPal：是时候全力以赴了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-11-22 11:14\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>PayPal has fallen over 30% since its ATH due to poor guidance and increased competition concerns.</li> <li>I argue that PayPal is still on track to achieve its long-term goals, and competition, albeit fierce, is manageable.</li> <li>The potential of Venmo and PayPal's future acquisition are what keep me coming back for more.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71b7d55858c35eda92a04deae062ef8b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">South_agency/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>由于指导不力和竞争担忧加剧，PayPal自ATH以来股价已下跌超过30%。</li><li>我认为PayPal仍在实现其长期目标的轨道上，竞争尽管激烈，但是可控的。</li><li>Venmo和PayPal未来收购的潜力让我不断回来购买更多。</li></ul>South_agency/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> Thesis Summary<blockquote>论文摘要</blockquote> Seven months ago, we analyzedPayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) and concluded that our target price of $425 for 2025 made the $266 purchase give a compound return of 10.5% per year. At the time, we were forecasting revenue, earnings, and PE ratios to calculate the target price.<blockquote>七个月前，我们分析了PayPal Holdings Inc.(PYPL)，得出的结论是，我们2025年425美元的目标价使得266美元的收购每年复合回报率为10.5%。当时，我们正在预测收入、盈利和市盈率来计算目标价。</blockquote> Although our forecasted PE ratio based on its relation to Earnings suggested the price was a little high for that point in time, it seemed that the market was granting the company a higher valuation given its remarkably consistent track record.<blockquote>尽管我们根据其与收益的关系预测市盈率表明当时的价格有点高，但鉴于该公司非常一致的业绩记录，市场似乎给予了该公司更高的估值。</blockquote> It took very little smoothing to set historical revenue growth at a consistent 17.9% per year, and as for the earnings margin, net income was very close to 13.55% of revenue almost every year. The only two exceptions were one negative, in 2014, and one positive, in 2020, where the margin was 19.6%.<blockquote>几乎不需要任何平滑就将历史收入增长率设定在每年17.9%，至于利润率，净利润几乎每年都非常接近收入的13.55%。仅有的两个例外是2014年的负利率和2020年的正利率，利润率为19.6%。</blockquote> As the year 2021 has progressed,PayPal has dropped significantly, all the way down to $200. At this price, the $425 target for 2025 would give you a compound annual return of 20.1%. I can think of three possible explanations for this collapse:<blockquote>随着2021年的进展，PayPal大幅下跌，一路跌至200美元。按照这个价格，2025年425美元的目标将为您带来20.1%的复合年回报率。对于这种崩溃，我可以想到三种可能的解释：</blockquote> a) The price was ahead of its time, and 2020 over performance got investors thinking growth had accelerated and that the price would go higher than we were forecasting. Ultimately, an investment relying on growth that has not yet materialized requires higher returns, and if the company is growing 18%, the investor wants to make at least 18% on their investment.<blockquote>a)价格领先于时代，2020年的表现让投资者认为增长已经加速，价格将高于我们的预期。最终，依赖尚未实现的增长的投资需要更高的回报，如果公司增长18%，投资者希望从投资中获得至少18%的回报。</blockquote> b) There is a perceived risk of earnings growth slowing down significantly based on the company's performance after looking at financial reports from the first three quarters of 2021.<blockquote>b)在查看2021年前三季度的财务报告后，根据公司的业绩，认为盈利增长存在大幅放缓的风险。</blockquote> c) There is a perceived risk of growth slowing down significantly due to factors outside of the company's financial performance, based on a qualitative analysis of the company and its addressable market.<blockquote>c)根据对公司及其目标市场的定性分析，由于公司财务业绩以外的因素，存在增长显着放缓的风险。</blockquote> If the correct answer is A, this is a great investment. If the logic feels compelling enough you should buy now and enjoy your 20% return over the years. I am going to focus on the other two scenarios, where we need to think about whether the business itself is actually in trouble.<blockquote>如果正确答案是A，这是一项伟大的投资。如果逻辑足够令人信服，您应该现在购买并享受多年来20%的回报。我将重点讨论另外两种情况，在这两种情况下，我们需要考虑企业本身是否真的陷入了困境。</blockquote> 2021 Financial Performance<blockquote>二零二一年财务表现</blockquote> Our previous analysis onPayPal was based on revenue and net income, as per GAAP figures up to 2020. Here I am going to look at the results of the first three quarters of 2021 to see if the results are disappointing.<blockquote>我们之前对PayPal的分析是基于截至2020年的GAAP数据的收入和净利润。这里我要看看2021年前三季度的业绩，看看业绩是否令人失望。</blockquote> First off, we have revenue growth. Indeed, quarter on quarter it doesn't look great, but this is not uncommon inPayPal's history of seasonality. If you look at the chart below, you can see that revenue grows the most in the fourth quarter, always drops in the first (QoQ), and has mixed results from the first to the third. Also, to continue on the 17.9% growth trend, revenue in the fourth quarter would only have to be %6.65 billion less than 8% higher than in the third quarter.<blockquote>首先，我们有收入增长。事实上，环比来看，情况并不乐观，但这在PayPal的季节性历史中并不罕见。如果你看下图，你可以看到第四季度收入增长最多，第一季度（环比）总是下降，并且从第一季度到第三季度的结果好坏参半。此外，要继续保持17.9%的增长趋势，第四季度的收入只需达到66.5亿美元，比第三季度增长不到8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fba8cbaa13348012cc020a72a4ecd1c\" tg-width=\"283\" tg-height=\"170\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。</blockquote> It appears that all is good with revenue growth so far and 2021 looks to deliver once again on the near 20% revenue growth figure. Let's take a look at earnings. So far in the first 3 quarters of 2021, earnings have been, just as in 2020, much higher than the previous trend of 13.5% of revenue. So far, earnings are between 17.5 and 19% of revenue, with an average of 18.3%. It is true that this was 19.6% in 2020, but it also means that we can no longer reasonably consider 2020 an anomaly in that respect.<blockquote>到目前为止，收入增长似乎一切顺利，2021年有望再次实现近20%的收入增长。我们来看看收益。到目前为止，2021年前3个季度的盈利与2020年一样，远高于之前占收入13.5%的趋势。到目前为止，盈利占收入的17.5%至19%之间，平均为18.3%。诚然，2020年这一比例为19.6%，但这也意味着我们不能再合理地认为2020年在这方面是一个异常现象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65fdec19cf0bd680067fed0f3ac34f92\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"290\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。2021年的数字是基于前3个季度的估计。</blockquote> Looking at these figures, the only thing that could worry investors is year-on-year growth rates. If you look at the table below you can see the growth rates of revenue and earnings for&nbsp;Q3 2021, YTD or YoY and with the 1-year growth rate or the 2-year CAGR.<blockquote>从这些数字来看，投资者唯一可能担心的是同比增长率。如果您查看下表，您可以看到2021年第三季度、年初至今或同比的收入和收益增长率以及1年增长率或2年CAGR。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c30583b007f9682b8b5c78496897f61d\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"145\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。</blockquote> This gives a clue of what might be the problem, as year-on-year growth rates in the third quarter look significantly worse than average, especially in earnings growth. However, if you take into account that 2020 Q3 was an exceptionally good quarter, it seems likePayPal is being punished for how good results were in 2020. If you look at the 2-year growth, results seem great, especially in earnings (it is also true that Q3 2019 was exceptionally bad, but one argument is as valid as the other).<blockquote>这为问题可能出在哪里提供了线索，因为第三季度的同比增长率看起来明显低于平均水平，尤其是在盈利增长方面。然而，如果你考虑到2020年第三季度是一个非常好的季度，那么PayPal似乎因2020年的良好业绩而受到惩罚。如果你看看两年的增长，结果似乎很好，尤其是在盈利方面（2019年第三季度确实异常糟糕，但一个论点和另一个一样有效）。</blockquote> To illustrate this point, imagine that net income had been lower in 2020. The chart below contains the same figures as the one before, except that 2020 net income has been arbitrarily reduced to fit a more growing pattern.<blockquote>为了说明这一点，想象一下2020年净利润较低。下图包含与上一张相同的数字，只是2020年净利润被任意减少以适应更增长的模式。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b14c61672e1db2d56752a6a07d858b3\" tg-width=\"483\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. *The figure from 2014 has been removed and the net income figure from 2020 has been reduced to illustrate the point explained above. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。*二零一四年的数字已删除，而二零二零年的净收入数字已减少，以说明上文所解释的要点。2021年的数字是基于前3个季度的估计。</blockquote> The result would be a much more promising-looking trend altogether. When taking short-term growth figures into account when valuing a company one should wonder if they are punishing bad results or actually punishing good results. All considered it doesn't seem like there is a reasonable cause in the observed financial performance ofPayPal that should make you think prospects are worse than they were 9 months ago.<blockquote>结果将是一个看起来更有希望的趋势。当在评估一家公司时考虑短期增长数据时，人们应该怀疑他们是在惩罚糟糕的结果还是实际上在惩罚好的结果。总的来说，观察到的PayPal财务表现似乎没有合理的原因让您认为前景比9个月前更糟糕。</blockquote> Is market growth a concern?<blockquote>市场增长令人担忧吗？</blockquote> With that said, the only other possible explanation is that, indeed, there are external factors that will prevent&nbsp;PayPal from expanding at the previously perceived rate. The stock was recently&nbsp;downgraded by Bernstein, claiming \"market share growth concerns\". The stock has slid over 30% since it reached an ATH at $300 makingPayPal's valuation that much more attractive. But how does this weigh against concerns over market growth?<blockquote>话虽如此，唯一其他可能的解释是，确实有外部因素会阻止PayPal以之前认为的速度扩张。该股最近被伯恩斯坦下调评级，声称“市场份额增长担忧”。自达到300美元的ATH以来，该股已下跌超过30%，这使得PayPal的估值更具吸引力。但这如何抵消对市场增长的担忧呢？</blockquote> \"Fintech\" is no longer a novel concept, and in the last few years, we have seen hundreds if not thousands of companies come out with similar versions of whatPayPal offers. To say the market is saturated, might even be an understatement, butPayPal remains the king of the hill.<blockquote>“金融科技”不再是一个新颖的概念，在过去几年中，我们已经看到数百家甚至数千家公司推出了PayPal提供的类似版本。说市场已经饱和甚至可能是一种保守的说法，但PayPal仍然是山中之王。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/462ce82e5652c8762836c4ef98dcdee5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: datanyze.com<blockquote>资料来源：datanyze.com</blockquote> In terms of Payment Processing Software,PayPal has over 50% of the market, and I say that because Braintree, which takes the fifth position, is also owned byPayPal. The problemPayPal faces though, isn't coming from the hundreds of startups and newly IPO'd companies, but by the large players which we also see on his list.<blockquote>在支付处理软件方面，PayPal拥有超过50%的市场份额，我这么说是因为排名第五的Braintree也归PayPal所有。然而，PayPal面临的问题并不是来自数百家初创公司和新上市的公司，而是来自我们在他的名单上也看到的大公司。</blockquote> This includes AmazonPay, Shopify Inc.'s (SHOP) ShopPay and even Google Pay. Arguably, some of these services have an advantage, in that their payment offerings complement other services. Shopify, for example, incentivizes its users and merchants to use its payment processing platforms, and Google has the advantage of being deeply embedded in a lot of the things we do.<blockquote>这包括AmazonPay、Shopify Inc.(SHOP)的ShopPay甚至Google Pay。可以说，其中一些服务具有优势，因为它们的支付产品补充了其他服务。例如，Shopify激励其用户和商家使用其支付处理平台，而谷歌的优势在于深入参与我们所做的许多事情。</blockquote> In this regard, Shopify and Amazon, for example, have a big advantage, in that they control where much of the money online is spent and can use this to their advantage. However, the payment system is not just limited to eCommerce.PayPal has a presence in many other areas, such as international transfers/transactions and physical payments.PayPal can be used as a bank, and there are also advantages to being a complete financial service focused company, just like there are advantages to having an ecosystem of buyers and sellers on your platform.<blockquote>例如，在这方面，Shopify和亚马逊有很大的优势，因为他们控制着大部分在线资金的花费，并可以利用这一点。然而，支付系统不仅仅局限于电子商务。PayPal在许多其他领域都有业务，如国际转账/交易和实物支付。PayPal可以用作银行，作为一家专注于完整金融服务的公司也有优势，就像在你的平台上拥有买家和卖家的生态系统也有优势一样。</blockquote> Yes, the market is saturated, and growth will become a challenge, but I still believe thatPayPal can succeed long-term and I'll explain why.<blockquote>是的，市场已经饱和，增长将成为一个挑战，但我仍然相信PayPal可以长期成功，我会解释原因。</blockquote> Two more reasons I will hold on toPayPal<blockquote>还有两个我会坚持下去的理由PayPal</blockquote> My analysis continues to support thatPayPal is on track to deliver the growth and returns I expected weeks ago. In this regard,PayPal offers growth at a reasonable price. It is a profitable and well-established company that is going nowhere.<blockquote>我的分析继续支持PayPal有望实现我几周前预期的增长和回报。在这方面，PayPal以合理的价格提供增长。这是一家盈利且信誉良好的公司，但却一事无成。</blockquote> More specifically though, two factors make me especially bullish onPayPal; Venmo and the power of its Balance Sheet.<blockquote>更具体地说，有两个因素让我特别看好PayPal；Venmo及其资产负债表的力量。</blockquote> Starting with Venmo, this is perhaps the biggest reason why I thinkPayPal still holds plenty of value and growth potential. Venmo is one of the most popular payment Apps in the United States. In 2020 over&nbsp;$159 billion in transactions&nbsp;were processed through Venmo in 2020, and the App is on track to deliver $900 million in revenues in 2021 according to the latest earnings call.<blockquote>从Venmo开始，这也许是我认为PayPal仍然拥有巨大价值和增长潜力的最大原因。Venmo是美国最受欢迎的支付应用之一。根据最新的收益看涨期权，2020年通过Venmo处理了超过1590亿美元的交易，该应用程序有望在2021年实现9亿美元的收入。</blockquote> But Venmo is barely scratching the surface of what it can achieve, both in terms of growth and monetization. When it comes to the latter, we can see that Venmo can still come a long way in terms of monetization if we compare it to Square Inc.'s (SQ) CashApp.According to estimates, CashApp produced $54 per user in 2020, while Venmo only made $12 from each active user. There are slight differences in transaction costs, but most of this comes from the fact that CashApp is used more for cryptocurrency transactions. This is something Venmo can easily replicate.<blockquote>但无论是在增长还是货币化方面，Venmo都只是触及了其所能实现的表面。谈到后者，如果我们将Venmo与Square Inc.(SQ)的CashApp进行比较，我们可以看到Venmo在货币化方面仍有很长的路要走。据估计，CashApp在2020年为每个用户带来了54美元的收入，而Venmo仅从每个活跃用户身上获得了12美元的收入。交易成本略有差异，但这大部分来自于CashApp更多地用于加密货币交易。这是Venmo可以轻松复制的。</blockquote> In terms of growth though, Venmo can go much farther. Originally, Venmo was conceived as a peer-to-peer payment system, but this is quickly moving to businesses too. Amazon.com (AMZN)&nbsp;will be accepting Venmo payments&nbsp;starting in 2022, and I believe this will see significant success.<blockquote>不过，就增长而言，Venmo可以走得更远。最初，Venmo被认为是一个点对点支付系统，但这也很快转移到企业。亚马逊(AMZN)将从2022年开始接受Venmo支付，我相信这将取得巨大成功。</blockquote> Venmo has a place in the mobile phones of 65 million people, and this is somethingPayPal can leverage to its advantage moving forward.<blockquote>Venmo在6500万人的手机中占有一席之地，这是PayPal可以利用的优势。</blockquote> The other big reason I will continue to holdPayPal is its incredible Balance Sheet, and all the growth opportunities this opens.PayPal has $13.29 billion in cash and negative net debt. It has a much stronger balance sheet than its most established peers, such as Mastercard Corporation (MA). It's now time forPayPal to put this money to good use to expand its platform, especially internationally, something we already got a taste of in the last investor presentation.<blockquote>我将继续持有PayPal的另一个重要原因是其令人难以置信的资产负债表，以及由此带来的所有增长机会。PayPal拥有132.9亿美元现金和负净债务。它的资产负债表比万事达卡公司（MA）等最成熟的同行要强大得多。现在是PayPal充分利用这笔资金来扩展其平台的时候了，特别是在国际上，我们已经在上次投资者演示中尝到了这一点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3484de41ef449aa085877ee9374fa00\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"648\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Investor Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：投资者介绍</blockquote> On September 7th, it was announced thatPayPal was acquiring Paidy, which uses artificial intelligence to find out the creditworthiness of its users and offers payment instalment plans. This is just one example of howPayPal can enter new markets and expand its footprint. Much like I argued before with Shopify,PayPal can now leverage Paidy to also push its other payment platforms into the Japanese market. I am very excited to see what other acquisitionsPayPal will make.<blockquote>9月7日，PayPal宣布收购Paidy，该公司使用人工智能来了解用户的信用度，并提供支付分期付款计划。这只是PayPal如何进入新市场并扩大其足迹的一个例子。就像我之前与Shopify争论的那样，PayPal现在可以利用Paidy将其其他支付平台推向日本市场。我很高兴看到PayPal还会进行哪些其他收购。</blockquote> Takeaway<blockquote>外卖</blockquote> In conclusion, and referring back to the thesis summary, I see no material reason why shares ofPayPal should continue to depreciate. Exogenous factors haven't changed, competition has always been tough and the company is still on track to deliver on its medium and long term growth targets.PayPal offers investors growth at a reasonable price, and that is hard to come by these days.<blockquote>总之，回到论文摘要，我认为PayPal的股价没有理由继续贬值。外生因素没有改变，竞争一直很激烈，公司仍有望实现中长期增长目标。PayPal以合理的价格为投资者提供增长，而这在当今很难实现。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4470923-paypal-time-to-go-all-in\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4470923-paypal-time-to-go-all-in","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158506816","content_text":"Summary\n\nPayPal has fallen over 30% since its ATH due to poor guidance and increased competition concerns.\nI argue that PayPal is still on track to achieve its long-term goals, and competition, albeit fierce, is manageable.\nThe potential of Venmo and PayPal's future acquisition are what keep me coming back for more.\n\nSouth_agency/E+ via Getty Images\nThesis Summary\nSeven months ago, we analyzedPayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) and concluded that our target price of $425 for 2025 made the $266 purchase give a compound return of 10.5% per year. At the time, we were forecasting revenue, earnings, and PE ratios to calculate the target price.\nAlthough our forecasted PE ratio based on its relation to Earnings suggested the price was a little high for that point in time, it seemed that the market was granting the company a higher valuation given its remarkably consistent track record.\nIt took very little smoothing to set historical revenue growth at a consistent 17.9% per year, and as for the earnings margin, net income was very close to 13.55% of revenue almost every year. The only two exceptions were one negative, in 2014, and one positive, in 2020, where the margin was 19.6%.\nAs the year 2021 has progressed,PayPal has dropped significantly, all the way down to $200. At this price, the $425 target for 2025 would give you a compound annual return of 20.1%. I can think of three possible explanations for this collapse:\na) The price was ahead of its time, and 2020 over performance got investors thinking growth had accelerated and that the price would go higher than we were forecasting. Ultimately, an investment relying on growth that has not yet materialized requires higher returns, and if the company is growing 18%, the investor wants to make at least 18% on their investment.\nb) There is a perceived risk of earnings growth slowing down significantly based on the company's performance after looking at financial reports from the first three quarters of 2021.\nc) There is a perceived risk of growth slowing down significantly due to factors outside of the company's financial performance, based on a qualitative analysis of the company and its addressable market.\nIf the correct answer is A, this is a great investment. If the logic feels compelling enough you should buy now and enjoy your 20% return over the years. I am going to focus on the other two scenarios, where we need to think about whether the business itself is actually in trouble.\n2021 Financial Performance\nOur previous analysis onPayPal was based on revenue and net income, as per GAAP figures up to 2020. Here I am going to look at the results of the first three quarters of 2021 to see if the results are disappointing.\nFirst off, we have revenue growth. Indeed, quarter on quarter it doesn't look great, but this is not uncommon inPayPal's history of seasonality. If you look at the chart below, you can see that revenue grows the most in the fourth quarter, always drops in the first (QoQ), and has mixed results from the first to the third. Also, to continue on the 17.9% growth trend, revenue in the fourth quarter would only have to be %6.65 billion less than 8% higher than in the third quarter.\nSource: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions.\nIt appears that all is good with revenue growth so far and 2021 looks to deliver once again on the near 20% revenue growth figure. Let's take a look at earnings. So far in the first 3 quarters of 2021, earnings have been, just as in 2020, much higher than the previous trend of 13.5% of revenue. So far, earnings are between 17.5 and 19% of revenue, with an average of 18.3%. It is true that this was 19.6% in 2020, but it also means that we can no longer reasonably consider 2020 an anomaly in that respect.\nSource: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.\nLooking at these figures, the only thing that could worry investors is year-on-year growth rates. If you look at the table below you can see the growth rates of revenue and earnings for Q3 2021, YTD or YoY and with the 1-year growth rate or the 2-year CAGR.\nSource: Author's work based on financial reports.\nThis gives a clue of what might be the problem, as year-on-year growth rates in the third quarter look significantly worse than average, especially in earnings growth. However, if you take into account that 2020 Q3 was an exceptionally good quarter, it seems likePayPal is being punished for how good results were in 2020. If you look at the 2-year growth, results seem great, especially in earnings (it is also true that Q3 2019 was exceptionally bad, but one argument is as valid as the other).\nTo illustrate this point, imagine that net income had been lower in 2020. The chart below contains the same figures as the one before, except that 2020 net income has been arbitrarily reduced to fit a more growing pattern.\nSource: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. *The figure from 2014 has been removed and the net income figure from 2020 has been reduced to illustrate the point explained above. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.\nThe result would be a much more promising-looking trend altogether. When taking short-term growth figures into account when valuing a company one should wonder if they are punishing bad results or actually punishing good results. All considered it doesn't seem like there is a reasonable cause in the observed financial performance ofPayPal that should make you think prospects are worse than they were 9 months ago.\nIs market growth a concern?\nWith that said, the only other possible explanation is that, indeed, there are external factors that will prevent PayPal from expanding at the previously perceived rate. The stock was recently downgraded by Bernstein, claiming \"market share growth concerns\". The stock has slid over 30% since it reached an ATH at $300 makingPayPal's valuation that much more attractive. But how does this weigh against concerns over market growth?\n\"Fintech\" is no longer a novel concept, and in the last few years, we have seen hundreds if not thousands of companies come out with similar versions of whatPayPal offers. To say the market is saturated, might even be an understatement, butPayPal remains the king of the hill.\nSource: datanyze.com\nIn terms of Payment Processing Software,PayPal has over 50% of the market, and I say that because Braintree, which takes the fifth position, is also owned byPayPal. The problemPayPal faces though, isn't coming from the hundreds of startups and newly IPO'd companies, but by the large players which we also see on his list.\nThis includes AmazonPay, Shopify Inc.'s (SHOP) ShopPay and even Google Pay. Arguably, some of these services have an advantage, in that their payment offerings complement other services. Shopify, for example, incentivizes its users and merchants to use its payment processing platforms, and Google has the advantage of being deeply embedded in a lot of the things we do.\nIn this regard, Shopify and Amazon, for example, have a big advantage, in that they control where much of the money online is spent and can use this to their advantage. However, the payment system is not just limited to eCommerce.PayPal has a presence in many other areas, such as international transfers/transactions and physical payments.PayPal can be used as a bank, and there are also advantages to being a complete financial service focused company, just like there are advantages to having an ecosystem of buyers and sellers on your platform.\nYes, the market is saturated, and growth will become a challenge, but I still believe thatPayPal can succeed long-term and I'll explain why.\nTwo more reasons I will hold on toPayPal\nMy analysis continues to support thatPayPal is on track to deliver the growth and returns I expected weeks ago. In this regard,PayPal offers growth at a reasonable price. It is a profitable and well-established company that is going nowhere.\nMore specifically though, two factors make me especially bullish onPayPal; Venmo and the power of its Balance Sheet.\nStarting with Venmo, this is perhaps the biggest reason why I thinkPayPal still holds plenty of value and growth potential. Venmo is one of the most popular payment Apps in the United States. In 2020 over $159 billion in transactions were processed through Venmo in 2020, and the App is on track to deliver $900 million in revenues in 2021 according to the latest earnings call.\nBut Venmo is barely scratching the surface of what it can achieve, both in terms of growth and monetization. When it comes to the latter, we can see that Venmo can still come a long way in terms of monetization if we compare it to Square Inc.'s (SQ) CashApp.According to estimates, CashApp produced $54 per user in 2020, while Venmo only made $12 from each active user. There are slight differences in transaction costs, but most of this comes from the fact that CashApp is used more for cryptocurrency transactions. This is something Venmo can easily replicate.\nIn terms of growth though, Venmo can go much farther. Originally, Venmo was conceived as a peer-to-peer payment system, but this is quickly moving to businesses too. Amazon.com (AMZN) will be accepting Venmo payments starting in 2022, and I believe this will see significant success.\nVenmo has a place in the mobile phones of 65 million people, and this is somethingPayPal can leverage to its advantage moving forward.\nThe other big reason I will continue to holdPayPal is its incredible Balance Sheet, and all the growth opportunities this opens.PayPal has $13.29 billion in cash and negative net debt. It has a much stronger balance sheet than its most established peers, such as Mastercard Corporation (MA). It's now time forPayPal to put this money to good use to expand its platform, especially internationally, something we already got a taste of in the last investor presentation.\nSource: Investor Presentation\nOn September 7th, it was announced thatPayPal was acquiring Paidy, which uses artificial intelligence to find out the creditworthiness of its users and offers payment instalment plans. This is just one example of howPayPal can enter new markets and expand its footprint. Much like I argued before with Shopify,PayPal can now leverage Paidy to also push its other payment platforms into the Japanese market. I am very excited to see what other acquisitionsPayPal will make.\nTakeaway\nIn conclusion, and referring back to the thesis summary, I see no material reason why shares ofPayPal should continue to depreciate. Exogenous factors haven't changed, competition has always been tough and the company is still on track to deliver on its medium and long term growth targets.PayPal offers investors growth at a reasonable price, and that is hard to come by these days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":872576830,"gmtCreate":1637553651563,"gmtModify":1637553651703,"author":{"id":"3570186020309805","authorId":"3570186020309805","name":"GoG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c9fbe31d027bcf439a17955df60352f","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3570186020309805","authorIdStr":"3570186020309805"},"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872576830","repostId":1158506816,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158506816","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637550842,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158506816?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-22 11:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal: Time To Go All In<blockquote>PayPal：是时候全力以赴了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158506816","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPayPal has fallen over 30% since its ATH due to poor guidance and increased competition con","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>PayPal has fallen over 30% since its ATH due to poor guidance and increased competition concerns.</li> <li>I argue that PayPal is still on track to achieve its long-term goals, and competition, albeit fierce, is manageable.</li> <li>The potential of Venmo and PayPal's future acquisition are what keep me coming back for more.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71b7d55858c35eda92a04deae062ef8b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">South_agency/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>由于指导不力和竞争担忧加剧，PayPal自ATH以来股价已下跌超过30%。</li><li>我认为PayPal仍在实现其长期目标的轨道上，竞争尽管激烈，但是可控的。</li><li>Venmo和PayPal未来收购的潜力让我不断回来购买更多。</li></ul>South_agency/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> Thesis Summary<blockquote>论文摘要</blockquote> Seven months ago, we analyzedPayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) and concluded that our target price of $425 for 2025 made the $266 purchase give a compound return of 10.5% per year. At the time, we were forecasting revenue, earnings, and PE ratios to calculate the target price.<blockquote>七个月前，我们分析了PayPal Holdings Inc.(PYPL)，得出的结论是，我们2025年425美元的目标价使得266美元的收购每年复合回报率为10.5%。当时，我们正在预测收入、盈利和市盈率来计算目标价。</blockquote> Although our forecasted PE ratio based on its relation to Earnings suggested the price was a little high for that point in time, it seemed that the market was granting the company a higher valuation given its remarkably consistent track record.<blockquote>尽管我们根据其与收益的关系预测市盈率表明当时的价格有点高，但鉴于该公司非常一致的业绩记录，市场似乎给予了该公司更高的估值。</blockquote> It took very little smoothing to set historical revenue growth at a consistent 17.9% per year, and as for the earnings margin, net income was very close to 13.55% of revenue almost every year. The only two exceptions were one negative, in 2014, and one positive, in 2020, where the margin was 19.6%.<blockquote>几乎不需要任何平滑就将历史收入增长率设定在每年17.9%，至于利润率，净利润几乎每年都非常接近收入的13.55%。仅有的两个例外是2014年的负利率和2020年的正利率，利润率为19.6%。</blockquote> As the year 2021 has progressed,PayPal has dropped significantly, all the way down to $200. At this price, the $425 target for 2025 would give you a compound annual return of 20.1%. I can think of three possible explanations for this collapse:<blockquote>随着2021年的进展，PayPal大幅下跌，一路跌至200美元。按照这个价格，2025年425美元的目标将为您带来20.1%的复合年回报率。对于这种崩溃，我可以想到三种可能的解释：</blockquote> a) The price was ahead of its time, and 2020 over performance got investors thinking growth had accelerated and that the price would go higher than we were forecasting. Ultimately, an investment relying on growth that has not yet materialized requires higher returns, and if the company is growing 18%, the investor wants to make at least 18% on their investment.<blockquote>a)价格领先于时代，2020年的表现让投资者认为增长已经加速，价格将高于我们的预期。最终，依赖尚未实现的增长的投资需要更高的回报，如果公司增长18%，投资者希望从投资中获得至少18%的回报。</blockquote> b) There is a perceived risk of earnings growth slowing down significantly based on the company's performance after looking at financial reports from the first three quarters of 2021.<blockquote>b)在查看2021年前三季度的财务报告后，根据公司的业绩，认为盈利增长存在大幅放缓的风险。</blockquote> c) There is a perceived risk of growth slowing down significantly due to factors outside of the company's financial performance, based on a qualitative analysis of the company and its addressable market.<blockquote>c)根据对公司及其目标市场的定性分析，由于公司财务业绩以外的因素，存在增长显着放缓的风险。</blockquote> If the correct answer is A, this is a great investment. If the logic feels compelling enough you should buy now and enjoy your 20% return over the years. I am going to focus on the other two scenarios, where we need to think about whether the business itself is actually in trouble.<blockquote>如果正确答案是A，这是一项伟大的投资。如果逻辑足够令人信服，您应该现在购买并享受多年来20%的回报。我将重点讨论另外两种情况，在这两种情况下，我们需要考虑企业本身是否真的陷入了困境。</blockquote> 2021 Financial Performance<blockquote>二零二一年财务表现</blockquote> Our previous analysis onPayPal was based on revenue and net income, as per GAAP figures up to 2020. Here I am going to look at the results of the first three quarters of 2021 to see if the results are disappointing.<blockquote>我们之前对PayPal的分析是基于截至2020年的GAAP数据的收入和净利润。这里我要看看2021年前三季度的业绩，看看业绩是否令人失望。</blockquote> First off, we have revenue growth. Indeed, quarter on quarter it doesn't look great, but this is not uncommon inPayPal's history of seasonality. If you look at the chart below, you can see that revenue grows the most in the fourth quarter, always drops in the first (QoQ), and has mixed results from the first to the third. Also, to continue on the 17.9% growth trend, revenue in the fourth quarter would only have to be %6.65 billion less than 8% higher than in the third quarter.<blockquote>首先，我们有收入增长。事实上，环比来看，情况并不乐观，但这在PayPal的季节性历史中并不罕见。如果你看下图，你可以看到第四季度收入增长最多，第一季度（环比）总是下降，并且从第一季度到第三季度的结果好坏参半。此外，要继续保持17.9%的增长趋势，第四季度的收入只需达到66.5亿美元，比第三季度增长不到8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fba8cbaa13348012cc020a72a4ecd1c\" tg-width=\"283\" tg-height=\"170\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。</blockquote> It appears that all is good with revenue growth so far and 2021 looks to deliver once again on the near 20% revenue growth figure. Let's take a look at earnings. So far in the first 3 quarters of 2021, earnings have been, just as in 2020, much higher than the previous trend of 13.5% of revenue. So far, earnings are between 17.5 and 19% of revenue, with an average of 18.3%. It is true that this was 19.6% in 2020, but it also means that we can no longer reasonably consider 2020 an anomaly in that respect.<blockquote>到目前为止，收入增长似乎一切顺利，2021年有望再次实现近20%的收入增长。我们来看看收益。到目前为止，2021年前3个季度的盈利与2020年一样，远高于之前占收入13.5%的趋势。到目前为止，盈利占收入的17.5%至19%之间，平均为18.3%。诚然，2020年这一比例为19.6%，但这也意味着我们不能再合理地认为2020年在这方面是一个异常现象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65fdec19cf0bd680067fed0f3ac34f92\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"290\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。2021年的数字是基于前3个季度的估计。</blockquote> Looking at these figures, the only thing that could worry investors is year-on-year growth rates. If you look at the table below you can see the growth rates of revenue and earnings for&nbsp;Q3 2021, YTD or YoY and with the 1-year growth rate or the 2-year CAGR.<blockquote>从这些数字来看，投资者唯一可能担心的是同比增长率。如果您查看下表，您可以看到2021年第三季度、年初至今或同比的收入和收益增长率以及1年增长率或2年CAGR。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c30583b007f9682b8b5c78496897f61d\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"145\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。</blockquote> This gives a clue of what might be the problem, as year-on-year growth rates in the third quarter look significantly worse than average, especially in earnings growth. However, if you take into account that 2020 Q3 was an exceptionally good quarter, it seems likePayPal is being punished for how good results were in 2020. If you look at the 2-year growth, results seem great, especially in earnings (it is also true that Q3 2019 was exceptionally bad, but one argument is as valid as the other).<blockquote>这为问题可能出在哪里提供了线索，因为第三季度的同比增长率看起来明显低于平均水平，尤其是在盈利增长方面。然而，如果你考虑到2020年第三季度是一个非常好的季度，那么PayPal似乎因2020年的良好业绩而受到惩罚。如果你看看两年的增长，结果似乎很好，尤其是在盈利方面（2019年第三季度确实异常糟糕，但一个论点和另一个一样有效）。</blockquote> To illustrate this point, imagine that net income had been lower in 2020. The chart below contains the same figures as the one before, except that 2020 net income has been arbitrarily reduced to fit a more growing pattern.<blockquote>为了说明这一点，想象一下2020年净利润较低。下图包含与上一张相同的数字，只是2020年净利润被任意减少以适应更增长的模式。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b14c61672e1db2d56752a6a07d858b3\" tg-width=\"483\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. *The figure from 2014 has been removed and the net income figure from 2020 has been reduced to illustrate the point explained above. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。*二零一四年的数字已删除，而二零二零年的净收入数字已减少，以说明上文所解释的要点。2021年的数字是基于前3个季度的估计。</blockquote> The result would be a much more promising-looking trend altogether. When taking short-term growth figures into account when valuing a company one should wonder if they are punishing bad results or actually punishing good results. All considered it doesn't seem like there is a reasonable cause in the observed financial performance ofPayPal that should make you think prospects are worse than they were 9 months ago.<blockquote>结果将是一个看起来更有希望的趋势。当在评估一家公司时考虑短期增长数据时，人们应该怀疑他们是在惩罚糟糕的结果还是实际上在惩罚好的结果。总的来说，观察到的PayPal财务表现似乎没有合理的原因让您认为前景比9个月前更糟糕。</blockquote> Is market growth a concern?<blockquote>市场增长令人担忧吗？</blockquote> With that said, the only other possible explanation is that, indeed, there are external factors that will prevent&nbsp;PayPal from expanding at the previously perceived rate. The stock was recently&nbsp;downgraded by Bernstein, claiming \"market share growth concerns\". The stock has slid over 30% since it reached an ATH at $300 makingPayPal's valuation that much more attractive. But how does this weigh against concerns over market growth?<blockquote>话虽如此，唯一其他可能的解释是，确实有外部因素会阻止PayPal以之前认为的速度扩张。该股最近被伯恩斯坦下调评级，声称“市场份额增长担忧”。自达到300美元的ATH以来，该股已下跌超过30%，这使得PayPal的估值更具吸引力。但这如何抵消对市场增长的担忧呢？</blockquote> \"Fintech\" is no longer a novel concept, and in the last few years, we have seen hundreds if not thousands of companies come out with similar versions of whatPayPal offers. To say the market is saturated, might even be an understatement, butPayPal remains the king of the hill.<blockquote>“金融科技”不再是一个新颖的概念，在过去几年中，我们已经看到数百家甚至数千家公司推出了PayPal提供的类似版本。说市场已经饱和甚至可能是一种保守的说法，但PayPal仍然是山中之王。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/462ce82e5652c8762836c4ef98dcdee5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: datanyze.com<blockquote>资料来源：datanyze.com</blockquote> In terms of Payment Processing Software,PayPal has over 50% of the market, and I say that because Braintree, which takes the fifth position, is also owned byPayPal. The problemPayPal faces though, isn't coming from the hundreds of startups and newly IPO'd companies, but by the large players which we also see on his list.<blockquote>在支付处理软件方面，PayPal拥有超过50%的市场份额，我这么说是因为排名第五的Braintree也归PayPal所有。然而，PayPal面临的问题并不是来自数百家初创公司和新上市的公司，而是来自我们在他的名单上也看到的大公司。</blockquote> This includes AmazonPay, Shopify Inc.'s (SHOP) ShopPay and even Google Pay. Arguably, some of these services have an advantage, in that their payment offerings complement other services. Shopify, for example, incentivizes its users and merchants to use its payment processing platforms, and Google has the advantage of being deeply embedded in a lot of the things we do.<blockquote>这包括AmazonPay、Shopify Inc.(SHOP)的ShopPay甚至Google Pay。可以说，其中一些服务具有优势，因为它们的支付产品补充了其他服务。例如，Shopify激励其用户和商家使用其支付处理平台，而谷歌的优势在于深入参与我们所做的许多事情。</blockquote> In this regard, Shopify and Amazon, for example, have a big advantage, in that they control where much of the money online is spent and can use this to their advantage. However, the payment system is not just limited to eCommerce.PayPal has a presence in many other areas, such as international transfers/transactions and physical payments.PayPal can be used as a bank, and there are also advantages to being a complete financial service focused company, just like there are advantages to having an ecosystem of buyers and sellers on your platform.<blockquote>例如，在这方面，Shopify和亚马逊有很大的优势，因为他们控制着大部分在线资金的花费，并可以利用这一点。然而，支付系统不仅仅局限于电子商务。PayPal在许多其他领域都有业务，如国际转账/交易和实物支付。PayPal可以用作银行，作为一家专注于完整金融服务的公司也有优势，就像在你的平台上拥有买家和卖家的生态系统也有优势一样。</blockquote> Yes, the market is saturated, and growth will become a challenge, but I still believe thatPayPal can succeed long-term and I'll explain why.<blockquote>是的，市场已经饱和，增长将成为一个挑战，但我仍然相信PayPal可以长期成功，我会解释原因。</blockquote> Two more reasons I will hold on toPayPal<blockquote>还有两个我会坚持下去的理由PayPal</blockquote> My analysis continues to support thatPayPal is on track to deliver the growth and returns I expected weeks ago. In this regard,PayPal offers growth at a reasonable price. It is a profitable and well-established company that is going nowhere.<blockquote>我的分析继续支持PayPal有望实现我几周前预期的增长和回报。在这方面，PayPal以合理的价格提供增长。这是一家盈利且信誉良好的公司，但却一事无成。</blockquote> More specifically though, two factors make me especially bullish onPayPal; Venmo and the power of its Balance Sheet.<blockquote>更具体地说，有两个因素让我特别看好PayPal；Venmo及其资产负债表的力量。</blockquote> Starting with Venmo, this is perhaps the biggest reason why I thinkPayPal still holds plenty of value and growth potential. Venmo is one of the most popular payment Apps in the United States. In 2020 over&nbsp;$159 billion in transactions&nbsp;were processed through Venmo in 2020, and the App is on track to deliver $900 million in revenues in 2021 according to the latest earnings call.<blockquote>从Venmo开始，这也许是我认为PayPal仍然拥有巨大价值和增长潜力的最大原因。Venmo是美国最受欢迎的支付应用之一。根据最新的收益看涨期权，2020年通过Venmo处理了超过1590亿美元的交易，该应用程序有望在2021年实现9亿美元的收入。</blockquote> But Venmo is barely scratching the surface of what it can achieve, both in terms of growth and monetization. When it comes to the latter, we can see that Venmo can still come a long way in terms of monetization if we compare it to Square Inc.'s (SQ) CashApp.According to estimates, CashApp produced $54 per user in 2020, while Venmo only made $12 from each active user. There are slight differences in transaction costs, but most of this comes from the fact that CashApp is used more for cryptocurrency transactions. This is something Venmo can easily replicate.<blockquote>但无论是在增长还是货币化方面，Venmo都只是触及了其所能实现的表面。谈到后者，如果我们将Venmo与Square Inc.(SQ)的CashApp进行比较，我们可以看到Venmo在货币化方面仍有很长的路要走。据估计，CashApp在2020年为每个用户带来了54美元的收入，而Venmo仅从每个活跃用户身上获得了12美元的收入。交易成本略有差异，但这大部分来自于CashApp更多地用于加密货币交易。这是Venmo可以轻松复制的。</blockquote> In terms of growth though, Venmo can go much farther. Originally, Venmo was conceived as a peer-to-peer payment system, but this is quickly moving to businesses too. Amazon.com (AMZN)&nbsp;will be accepting Venmo payments&nbsp;starting in 2022, and I believe this will see significant success.<blockquote>不过，就增长而言，Venmo可以走得更远。最初，Venmo被认为是一个点对点支付系统，但这也很快转移到企业。亚马逊(AMZN)将从2022年开始接受Venmo支付，我相信这将取得巨大成功。</blockquote> Venmo has a place in the mobile phones of 65 million people, and this is somethingPayPal can leverage to its advantage moving forward.<blockquote>Venmo在6500万人的手机中占有一席之地，这是PayPal可以利用的优势。</blockquote> The other big reason I will continue to holdPayPal is its incredible Balance Sheet, and all the growth opportunities this opens.PayPal has $13.29 billion in cash and negative net debt. It has a much stronger balance sheet than its most established peers, such as Mastercard Corporation (MA). It's now time forPayPal to put this money to good use to expand its platform, especially internationally, something we already got a taste of in the last investor presentation.<blockquote>我将继续持有PayPal的另一个重要原因是其令人难以置信的资产负债表，以及由此带来的所有增长机会。PayPal拥有132.9亿美元现金和负净债务。它的资产负债表比万事达卡公司（MA）等最成熟的同行要强大得多。现在是PayPal充分利用这笔资金来扩展其平台的时候了，特别是在国际上，我们已经在上次投资者演示中尝到了这一点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3484de41ef449aa085877ee9374fa00\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"648\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Investor Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：投资者介绍</blockquote> On September 7th, it was announced thatPayPal was acquiring Paidy, which uses artificial intelligence to find out the creditworthiness of its users and offers payment instalment plans. This is just one example of howPayPal can enter new markets and expand its footprint. Much like I argued before with Shopify,PayPal can now leverage Paidy to also push its other payment platforms into the Japanese market. I am very excited to see what other acquisitionsPayPal will make.<blockquote>9月7日，PayPal宣布收购Paidy，该公司使用人工智能来了解用户的信用度，并提供支付分期付款计划。这只是PayPal如何进入新市场并扩大其足迹的一个例子。就像我之前与Shopify争论的那样，PayPal现在可以利用Paidy将其其他支付平台推向日本市场。我很高兴看到PayPal还会进行哪些其他收购。</blockquote> Takeaway<blockquote>外卖</blockquote> In conclusion, and referring back to the thesis summary, I see no material reason why shares ofPayPal should continue to depreciate. Exogenous factors haven't changed, competition has always been tough and the company is still on track to deliver on its medium and long term growth targets.PayPal offers investors growth at a reasonable price, and that is hard to come by these days.<blockquote>总之，回到论文摘要，我认为PayPal的股价没有理由继续贬值。外生因素没有改变，竞争一直很激烈，公司仍有望实现中长期增长目标。PayPal以合理的价格为投资者提供增长，而这在当今很难实现。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal: Time To Go All In<blockquote>PayPal：是时候全力以赴了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal: Time To Go All In<blockquote>PayPal：是时候全力以赴了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-11-22 11:14\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>PayPal has fallen over 30% since its ATH due to poor guidance and increased competition concerns.</li> <li>I argue that PayPal is still on track to achieve its long-term goals, and competition, albeit fierce, is manageable.</li> <li>The potential of Venmo and PayPal's future acquisition are what keep me coming back for more.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71b7d55858c35eda92a04deae062ef8b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">South_agency/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>由于指导不力和竞争担忧加剧，PayPal自ATH以来股价已下跌超过30%。</li><li>我认为PayPal仍在实现其长期目标的轨道上，竞争尽管激烈，但是可控的。</li><li>Venmo和PayPal未来收购的潜力让我不断回来购买更多。</li></ul>South_agency/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> Thesis Summary<blockquote>论文摘要</blockquote> Seven months ago, we analyzedPayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) and concluded that our target price of $425 for 2025 made the $266 purchase give a compound return of 10.5% per year. At the time, we were forecasting revenue, earnings, and PE ratios to calculate the target price.<blockquote>七个月前，我们分析了PayPal Holdings Inc.(PYPL)，得出的结论是，我们2025年425美元的目标价使得266美元的收购每年复合回报率为10.5%。当时，我们正在预测收入、盈利和市盈率来计算目标价。</blockquote> Although our forecasted PE ratio based on its relation to Earnings suggested the price was a little high for that point in time, it seemed that the market was granting the company a higher valuation given its remarkably consistent track record.<blockquote>尽管我们根据其与收益的关系预测市盈率表明当时的价格有点高，但鉴于该公司非常一致的业绩记录，市场似乎给予了该公司更高的估值。</blockquote> It took very little smoothing to set historical revenue growth at a consistent 17.9% per year, and as for the earnings margin, net income was very close to 13.55% of revenue almost every year. The only two exceptions were one negative, in 2014, and one positive, in 2020, where the margin was 19.6%.<blockquote>几乎不需要任何平滑就将历史收入增长率设定在每年17.9%，至于利润率，净利润几乎每年都非常接近收入的13.55%。仅有的两个例外是2014年的负利率和2020年的正利率，利润率为19.6%。</blockquote> As the year 2021 has progressed,PayPal has dropped significantly, all the way down to $200. At this price, the $425 target for 2025 would give you a compound annual return of 20.1%. I can think of three possible explanations for this collapse:<blockquote>随着2021年的进展，PayPal大幅下跌，一路跌至200美元。按照这个价格，2025年425美元的目标将为您带来20.1%的复合年回报率。对于这种崩溃，我可以想到三种可能的解释：</blockquote> a) The price was ahead of its time, and 2020 over performance got investors thinking growth had accelerated and that the price would go higher than we were forecasting. Ultimately, an investment relying on growth that has not yet materialized requires higher returns, and if the company is growing 18%, the investor wants to make at least 18% on their investment.<blockquote>a)价格领先于时代，2020年的表现让投资者认为增长已经加速，价格将高于我们的预期。最终，依赖尚未实现的增长的投资需要更高的回报，如果公司增长18%，投资者希望从投资中获得至少18%的回报。</blockquote> b) There is a perceived risk of earnings growth slowing down significantly based on the company's performance after looking at financial reports from the first three quarters of 2021.<blockquote>b)在查看2021年前三季度的财务报告后，根据公司的业绩，认为盈利增长存在大幅放缓的风险。</blockquote> c) There is a perceived risk of growth slowing down significantly due to factors outside of the company's financial performance, based on a qualitative analysis of the company and its addressable market.<blockquote>c)根据对公司及其目标市场的定性分析，由于公司财务业绩以外的因素，存在增长显着放缓的风险。</blockquote> If the correct answer is A, this is a great investment. If the logic feels compelling enough you should buy now and enjoy your 20% return over the years. I am going to focus on the other two scenarios, where we need to think about whether the business itself is actually in trouble.<blockquote>如果正确答案是A，这是一项伟大的投资。如果逻辑足够令人信服，您应该现在购买并享受多年来20%的回报。我将重点讨论另外两种情况，在这两种情况下，我们需要考虑企业本身是否真的陷入了困境。</blockquote> 2021 Financial Performance<blockquote>二零二一年财务表现</blockquote> Our previous analysis onPayPal was based on revenue and net income, as per GAAP figures up to 2020. Here I am going to look at the results of the first three quarters of 2021 to see if the results are disappointing.<blockquote>我们之前对PayPal的分析是基于截至2020年的GAAP数据的收入和净利润。这里我要看看2021年前三季度的业绩，看看业绩是否令人失望。</blockquote> First off, we have revenue growth. Indeed, quarter on quarter it doesn't look great, but this is not uncommon inPayPal's history of seasonality. If you look at the chart below, you can see that revenue grows the most in the fourth quarter, always drops in the first (QoQ), and has mixed results from the first to the third. Also, to continue on the 17.9% growth trend, revenue in the fourth quarter would only have to be %6.65 billion less than 8% higher than in the third quarter.<blockquote>首先，我们有收入增长。事实上，环比来看，情况并不乐观，但这在PayPal的季节性历史中并不罕见。如果你看下图，你可以看到第四季度收入增长最多，第一季度（环比）总是下降，并且从第一季度到第三季度的结果好坏参半。此外，要继续保持17.9%的增长趋势，第四季度的收入只需达到66.5亿美元，比第三季度增长不到8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fba8cbaa13348012cc020a72a4ecd1c\" tg-width=\"283\" tg-height=\"170\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。</blockquote> It appears that all is good with revenue growth so far and 2021 looks to deliver once again on the near 20% revenue growth figure. Let's take a look at earnings. So far in the first 3 quarters of 2021, earnings have been, just as in 2020, much higher than the previous trend of 13.5% of revenue. So far, earnings are between 17.5 and 19% of revenue, with an average of 18.3%. It is true that this was 19.6% in 2020, but it also means that we can no longer reasonably consider 2020 an anomaly in that respect.<blockquote>到目前为止，收入增长似乎一切顺利，2021年有望再次实现近20%的收入增长。我们来看看收益。到目前为止，2021年前3个季度的盈利与2020年一样，远高于之前占收入13.5%的趋势。到目前为止，盈利占收入的17.5%至19%之间，平均为18.3%。诚然，2020年这一比例为19.6%，但这也意味着我们不能再合理地认为2020年在这方面是一个异常现象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65fdec19cf0bd680067fed0f3ac34f92\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"290\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。2021年的数字是基于前3个季度的估计。</blockquote> Looking at these figures, the only thing that could worry investors is year-on-year growth rates. If you look at the table below you can see the growth rates of revenue and earnings for&nbsp;Q3 2021, YTD or YoY and with the 1-year growth rate or the 2-year CAGR.<blockquote>从这些数字来看，投资者唯一可能担心的是同比增长率。如果您查看下表，您可以看到2021年第三季度、年初至今或同比的收入和收益增长率以及1年增长率或2年CAGR。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c30583b007f9682b8b5c78496897f61d\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"145\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。</blockquote> This gives a clue of what might be the problem, as year-on-year growth rates in the third quarter look significantly worse than average, especially in earnings growth. However, if you take into account that 2020 Q3 was an exceptionally good quarter, it seems likePayPal is being punished for how good results were in 2020. If you look at the 2-year growth, results seem great, especially in earnings (it is also true that Q3 2019 was exceptionally bad, but one argument is as valid as the other).<blockquote>这为问题可能出在哪里提供了线索，因为第三季度的同比增长率看起来明显低于平均水平，尤其是在盈利增长方面。然而，如果你考虑到2020年第三季度是一个非常好的季度，那么PayPal似乎因2020年的良好业绩而受到惩罚。如果你看看两年的增长，结果似乎很好，尤其是在盈利方面（2019年第三季度确实异常糟糕，但一个论点和另一个一样有效）。</blockquote> To illustrate this point, imagine that net income had been lower in 2020. The chart below contains the same figures as the one before, except that 2020 net income has been arbitrarily reduced to fit a more growing pattern.<blockquote>为了说明这一点，想象一下2020年净利润较低。下图包含与上一张相同的数字，只是2020年净利润被任意减少以适应更增长的模式。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b14c61672e1db2d56752a6a07d858b3\" tg-width=\"483\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. *The figure from 2014 has been removed and the net income figure from 2020 has been reduced to illustrate the point explained above. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。*二零一四年的数字已删除，而二零二零年的净收入数字已减少，以说明上文所解释的要点。2021年的数字是基于前3个季度的估计。</blockquote> The result would be a much more promising-looking trend altogether. When taking short-term growth figures into account when valuing a company one should wonder if they are punishing bad results or actually punishing good results. All considered it doesn't seem like there is a reasonable cause in the observed financial performance ofPayPal that should make you think prospects are worse than they were 9 months ago.<blockquote>结果将是一个看起来更有希望的趋势。当在评估一家公司时考虑短期增长数据时，人们应该怀疑他们是在惩罚糟糕的结果还是实际上在惩罚好的结果。总的来说，观察到的PayPal财务表现似乎没有合理的原因让您认为前景比9个月前更糟糕。</blockquote> Is market growth a concern?<blockquote>市场增长令人担忧吗？</blockquote> With that said, the only other possible explanation is that, indeed, there are external factors that will prevent&nbsp;PayPal from expanding at the previously perceived rate. The stock was recently&nbsp;downgraded by Bernstein, claiming \"market share growth concerns\". The stock has slid over 30% since it reached an ATH at $300 makingPayPal's valuation that much more attractive. But how does this weigh against concerns over market growth?<blockquote>话虽如此，唯一其他可能的解释是，确实有外部因素会阻止PayPal以之前认为的速度扩张。该股最近被伯恩斯坦下调评级，声称“市场份额增长担忧”。自达到300美元的ATH以来，该股已下跌超过30%，这使得PayPal的估值更具吸引力。但这如何抵消对市场增长的担忧呢？</blockquote> \"Fintech\" is no longer a novel concept, and in the last few years, we have seen hundreds if not thousands of companies come out with similar versions of whatPayPal offers. To say the market is saturated, might even be an understatement, butPayPal remains the king of the hill.<blockquote>“金融科技”不再是一个新颖的概念，在过去几年中，我们已经看到数百家甚至数千家公司推出了PayPal提供的类似版本。说市场已经饱和甚至可能是一种保守的说法，但PayPal仍然是山中之王。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/462ce82e5652c8762836c4ef98dcdee5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: datanyze.com<blockquote>资料来源：datanyze.com</blockquote> In terms of Payment Processing Software,PayPal has over 50% of the market, and I say that because Braintree, which takes the fifth position, is also owned byPayPal. The problemPayPal faces though, isn't coming from the hundreds of startups and newly IPO'd companies, but by the large players which we also see on his list.<blockquote>在支付处理软件方面，PayPal拥有超过50%的市场份额，我这么说是因为排名第五的Braintree也归PayPal所有。然而，PayPal面临的问题并不是来自数百家初创公司和新上市的公司，而是来自我们在他的名单上也看到的大公司。</blockquote> This includes AmazonPay, Shopify Inc.'s (SHOP) ShopPay and even Google Pay. Arguably, some of these services have an advantage, in that their payment offerings complement other services. Shopify, for example, incentivizes its users and merchants to use its payment processing platforms, and Google has the advantage of being deeply embedded in a lot of the things we do.<blockquote>这包括AmazonPay、Shopify Inc.(SHOP)的ShopPay甚至Google Pay。可以说，其中一些服务具有优势，因为它们的支付产品补充了其他服务。例如，Shopify激励其用户和商家使用其支付处理平台，而谷歌的优势在于深入参与我们所做的许多事情。</blockquote> In this regard, Shopify and Amazon, for example, have a big advantage, in that they control where much of the money online is spent and can use this to their advantage. However, the payment system is not just limited to eCommerce.PayPal has a presence in many other areas, such as international transfers/transactions and physical payments.PayPal can be used as a bank, and there are also advantages to being a complete financial service focused company, just like there are advantages to having an ecosystem of buyers and sellers on your platform.<blockquote>例如，在这方面，Shopify和亚马逊有很大的优势，因为他们控制着大部分在线资金的花费，并可以利用这一点。然而，支付系统不仅仅局限于电子商务。PayPal在许多其他领域都有业务，如国际转账/交易和实物支付。PayPal可以用作银行，作为一家专注于完整金融服务的公司也有优势，就像在你的平台上拥有买家和卖家的生态系统也有优势一样。</blockquote> Yes, the market is saturated, and growth will become a challenge, but I still believe thatPayPal can succeed long-term and I'll explain why.<blockquote>是的，市场已经饱和，增长将成为一个挑战，但我仍然相信PayPal可以长期成功，我会解释原因。</blockquote> Two more reasons I will hold on toPayPal<blockquote>还有两个我会坚持下去的理由PayPal</blockquote> My analysis continues to support thatPayPal is on track to deliver the growth and returns I expected weeks ago. In this regard,PayPal offers growth at a reasonable price. It is a profitable and well-established company that is going nowhere.<blockquote>我的分析继续支持PayPal有望实现我几周前预期的增长和回报。在这方面，PayPal以合理的价格提供增长。这是一家盈利且信誉良好的公司，但却一事无成。</blockquote> More specifically though, two factors make me especially bullish onPayPal; Venmo and the power of its Balance Sheet.<blockquote>更具体地说，有两个因素让我特别看好PayPal；Venmo及其资产负债表的力量。</blockquote> Starting with Venmo, this is perhaps the biggest reason why I thinkPayPal still holds plenty of value and growth potential. Venmo is one of the most popular payment Apps in the United States. In 2020 over&nbsp;$159 billion in transactions&nbsp;were processed through Venmo in 2020, and the App is on track to deliver $900 million in revenues in 2021 according to the latest earnings call.<blockquote>从Venmo开始，这也许是我认为PayPal仍然拥有巨大价值和增长潜力的最大原因。Venmo是美国最受欢迎的支付应用之一。根据最新的收益看涨期权，2020年通过Venmo处理了超过1590亿美元的交易，该应用程序有望在2021年实现9亿美元的收入。</blockquote> But Venmo is barely scratching the surface of what it can achieve, both in terms of growth and monetization. When it comes to the latter, we can see that Venmo can still come a long way in terms of monetization if we compare it to Square Inc.'s (SQ) CashApp.According to estimates, CashApp produced $54 per user in 2020, while Venmo only made $12 from each active user. There are slight differences in transaction costs, but most of this comes from the fact that CashApp is used more for cryptocurrency transactions. This is something Venmo can easily replicate.<blockquote>但无论是在增长还是货币化方面，Venmo都只是触及了其所能实现的表面。谈到后者，如果我们将Venmo与Square Inc.(SQ)的CashApp进行比较，我们可以看到Venmo在货币化方面仍有很长的路要走。据估计，CashApp在2020年为每个用户带来了54美元的收入，而Venmo仅从每个活跃用户身上获得了12美元的收入。交易成本略有差异，但这大部分来自于CashApp更多地用于加密货币交易。这是Venmo可以轻松复制的。</blockquote> In terms of growth though, Venmo can go much farther. Originally, Venmo was conceived as a peer-to-peer payment system, but this is quickly moving to businesses too. Amazon.com (AMZN)&nbsp;will be accepting Venmo payments&nbsp;starting in 2022, and I believe this will see significant success.<blockquote>不过，就增长而言，Venmo可以走得更远。最初，Venmo被认为是一个点对点支付系统，但这也很快转移到企业。亚马逊(AMZN)将从2022年开始接受Venmo支付，我相信这将取得巨大成功。</blockquote> Venmo has a place in the mobile phones of 65 million people, and this is somethingPayPal can leverage to its advantage moving forward.<blockquote>Venmo在6500万人的手机中占有一席之地，这是PayPal可以利用的优势。</blockquote> The other big reason I will continue to holdPayPal is its incredible Balance Sheet, and all the growth opportunities this opens.PayPal has $13.29 billion in cash and negative net debt. It has a much stronger balance sheet than its most established peers, such as Mastercard Corporation (MA). It's now time forPayPal to put this money to good use to expand its platform, especially internationally, something we already got a taste of in the last investor presentation.<blockquote>我将继续持有PayPal的另一个重要原因是其令人难以置信的资产负债表，以及由此带来的所有增长机会。PayPal拥有132.9亿美元现金和负净债务。它的资产负债表比万事达卡公司（MA）等最成熟的同行要强大得多。现在是PayPal充分利用这笔资金来扩展其平台的时候了，特别是在国际上，我们已经在上次投资者演示中尝到了这一点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3484de41ef449aa085877ee9374fa00\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"648\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Investor Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：投资者介绍</blockquote> On September 7th, it was announced thatPayPal was acquiring Paidy, which uses artificial intelligence to find out the creditworthiness of its users and offers payment instalment plans. This is just one example of howPayPal can enter new markets and expand its footprint. Much like I argued before with Shopify,PayPal can now leverage Paidy to also push its other payment platforms into the Japanese market. I am very excited to see what other acquisitionsPayPal will make.<blockquote>9月7日，PayPal宣布收购Paidy，该公司使用人工智能来了解用户的信用度，并提供支付分期付款计划。这只是PayPal如何进入新市场并扩大其足迹的一个例子。就像我之前与Shopify争论的那样，PayPal现在可以利用Paidy将其其他支付平台推向日本市场。我很高兴看到PayPal还会进行哪些其他收购。</blockquote> Takeaway<blockquote>外卖</blockquote> In conclusion, and referring back to the thesis summary, I see no material reason why shares ofPayPal should continue to depreciate. Exogenous factors haven't changed, competition has always been tough and the company is still on track to deliver on its medium and long term growth targets.PayPal offers investors growth at a reasonable price, and that is hard to come by these days.<blockquote>总之，回到论文摘要，我认为PayPal的股价没有理由继续贬值。外生因素没有改变，竞争一直很激烈，公司仍有望实现中长期增长目标。PayPal以合理的价格为投资者提供增长，而这在当今很难实现。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4470923-paypal-time-to-go-all-in\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4470923-paypal-time-to-go-all-in","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158506816","content_text":"Summary\n\nPayPal has fallen over 30% since its ATH due to poor guidance and increased competition concerns.\nI argue that PayPal is still on track to achieve its long-term goals, and competition, albeit fierce, is manageable.\nThe potential of Venmo and PayPal's future acquisition are what keep me coming back for more.\n\nSouth_agency/E+ via Getty Images\nThesis Summary\nSeven months ago, we analyzedPayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) and concluded that our target price of $425 for 2025 made the $266 purchase give a compound return of 10.5% per year. At the time, we were forecasting revenue, earnings, and PE ratios to calculate the target price.\nAlthough our forecasted PE ratio based on its relation to Earnings suggested the price was a little high for that point in time, it seemed that the market was granting the company a higher valuation given its remarkably consistent track record.\nIt took very little smoothing to set historical revenue growth at a consistent 17.9% per year, and as for the earnings margin, net income was very close to 13.55% of revenue almost every year. The only two exceptions were one negative, in 2014, and one positive, in 2020, where the margin was 19.6%.\nAs the year 2021 has progressed,PayPal has dropped significantly, all the way down to $200. At this price, the $425 target for 2025 would give you a compound annual return of 20.1%. I can think of three possible explanations for this collapse:\na) The price was ahead of its time, and 2020 over performance got investors thinking growth had accelerated and that the price would go higher than we were forecasting. Ultimately, an investment relying on growth that has not yet materialized requires higher returns, and if the company is growing 18%, the investor wants to make at least 18% on their investment.\nb) There is a perceived risk of earnings growth slowing down significantly based on the company's performance after looking at financial reports from the first three quarters of 2021.\nc) There is a perceived risk of growth slowing down significantly due to factors outside of the company's financial performance, based on a qualitative analysis of the company and its addressable market.\nIf the correct answer is A, this is a great investment. If the logic feels compelling enough you should buy now and enjoy your 20% return over the years. I am going to focus on the other two scenarios, where we need to think about whether the business itself is actually in trouble.\n2021 Financial Performance\nOur previous analysis onPayPal was based on revenue and net income, as per GAAP figures up to 2020. Here I am going to look at the results of the first three quarters of 2021 to see if the results are disappointing.\nFirst off, we have revenue growth. Indeed, quarter on quarter it doesn't look great, but this is not uncommon inPayPal's history of seasonality. If you look at the chart below, you can see that revenue grows the most in the fourth quarter, always drops in the first (QoQ), and has mixed results from the first to the third. Also, to continue on the 17.9% growth trend, revenue in the fourth quarter would only have to be %6.65 billion less than 8% higher than in the third quarter.\nSource: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions.\nIt appears that all is good with revenue growth so far and 2021 looks to deliver once again on the near 20% revenue growth figure. Let's take a look at earnings. So far in the first 3 quarters of 2021, earnings have been, just as in 2020, much higher than the previous trend of 13.5% of revenue. So far, earnings are between 17.5 and 19% of revenue, with an average of 18.3%. It is true that this was 19.6% in 2020, but it also means that we can no longer reasonably consider 2020 an anomaly in that respect.\nSource: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.\nLooking at these figures, the only thing that could worry investors is year-on-year growth rates. If you look at the table below you can see the growth rates of revenue and earnings for Q3 2021, YTD or YoY and with the 1-year growth rate or the 2-year CAGR.\nSource: Author's work based on financial reports.\nThis gives a clue of what might be the problem, as year-on-year growth rates in the third quarter look significantly worse than average, especially in earnings growth. However, if you take into account that 2020 Q3 was an exceptionally good quarter, it seems likePayPal is being punished for how good results were in 2020. If you look at the 2-year growth, results seem great, especially in earnings (it is also true that Q3 2019 was exceptionally bad, but one argument is as valid as the other).\nTo illustrate this point, imagine that net income had been lower in 2020. The chart below contains the same figures as the one before, except that 2020 net income has been arbitrarily reduced to fit a more growing pattern.\nSource: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. *The figure from 2014 has been removed and the net income figure from 2020 has been reduced to illustrate the point explained above. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.\nThe result would be a much more promising-looking trend altogether. When taking short-term growth figures into account when valuing a company one should wonder if they are punishing bad results or actually punishing good results. All considered it doesn't seem like there is a reasonable cause in the observed financial performance ofPayPal that should make you think prospects are worse than they were 9 months ago.\nIs market growth a concern?\nWith that said, the only other possible explanation is that, indeed, there are external factors that will prevent PayPal from expanding at the previously perceived rate. The stock was recently downgraded by Bernstein, claiming \"market share growth concerns\". The stock has slid over 30% since it reached an ATH at $300 makingPayPal's valuation that much more attractive. But how does this weigh against concerns over market growth?\n\"Fintech\" is no longer a novel concept, and in the last few years, we have seen hundreds if not thousands of companies come out with similar versions of whatPayPal offers. To say the market is saturated, might even be an understatement, butPayPal remains the king of the hill.\nSource: datanyze.com\nIn terms of Payment Processing Software,PayPal has over 50% of the market, and I say that because Braintree, which takes the fifth position, is also owned byPayPal. The problemPayPal faces though, isn't coming from the hundreds of startups and newly IPO'd companies, but by the large players which we also see on his list.\nThis includes AmazonPay, Shopify Inc.'s (SHOP) ShopPay and even Google Pay. Arguably, some of these services have an advantage, in that their payment offerings complement other services. Shopify, for example, incentivizes its users and merchants to use its payment processing platforms, and Google has the advantage of being deeply embedded in a lot of the things we do.\nIn this regard, Shopify and Amazon, for example, have a big advantage, in that they control where much of the money online is spent and can use this to their advantage. However, the payment system is not just limited to eCommerce.PayPal has a presence in many other areas, such as international transfers/transactions and physical payments.PayPal can be used as a bank, and there are also advantages to being a complete financial service focused company, just like there are advantages to having an ecosystem of buyers and sellers on your platform.\nYes, the market is saturated, and growth will become a challenge, but I still believe thatPayPal can succeed long-term and I'll explain why.\nTwo more reasons I will hold on toPayPal\nMy analysis continues to support thatPayPal is on track to deliver the growth and returns I expected weeks ago. In this regard,PayPal offers growth at a reasonable price. It is a profitable and well-established company that is going nowhere.\nMore specifically though, two factors make me especially bullish onPayPal; Venmo and the power of its Balance Sheet.\nStarting with Venmo, this is perhaps the biggest reason why I thinkPayPal still holds plenty of value and growth potential. Venmo is one of the most popular payment Apps in the United States. In 2020 over $159 billion in transactions were processed through Venmo in 2020, and the App is on track to deliver $900 million in revenues in 2021 according to the latest earnings call.\nBut Venmo is barely scratching the surface of what it can achieve, both in terms of growth and monetization. When it comes to the latter, we can see that Venmo can still come a long way in terms of monetization if we compare it to Square Inc.'s (SQ) CashApp.According to estimates, CashApp produced $54 per user in 2020, while Venmo only made $12 from each active user. There are slight differences in transaction costs, but most of this comes from the fact that CashApp is used more for cryptocurrency transactions. This is something Venmo can easily replicate.\nIn terms of growth though, Venmo can go much farther. Originally, Venmo was conceived as a peer-to-peer payment system, but this is quickly moving to businesses too. Amazon.com (AMZN) will be accepting Venmo payments starting in 2022, and I believe this will see significant success.\nVenmo has a place in the mobile phones of 65 million people, and this is somethingPayPal can leverage to its advantage moving forward.\nThe other big reason I will continue to holdPayPal is its incredible Balance Sheet, and all the growth opportunities this opens.PayPal has $13.29 billion in cash and negative net debt. It has a much stronger balance sheet than its most established peers, such as Mastercard Corporation (MA). It's now time forPayPal to put this money to good use to expand its platform, especially internationally, something we already got a taste of in the last investor presentation.\nSource: Investor Presentation\nOn September 7th, it was announced thatPayPal was acquiring Paidy, which uses artificial intelligence to find out the creditworthiness of its users and offers payment instalment plans. This is just one example of howPayPal can enter new markets and expand its footprint. Much like I argued before with Shopify,PayPal can now leverage Paidy to also push its other payment platforms into the Japanese market. I am very excited to see what other acquisitionsPayPal will make.\nTakeaway\nIn conclusion, and referring back to the thesis summary, I see no material reason why shares ofPayPal should continue to depreciate. Exogenous factors haven't changed, competition has always been tough and the company is still on track to deliver on its medium and long term growth targets.PayPal offers investors growth at a reasonable price, and that is hard to come by these days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6674850,"gmtCreate":1637553656011,"gmtModify":1637553656035,"authorId":3570186020309805,"author":{"id":3570186020309805,"idStr":"3570186020309805","authorId":3570186020309805,"name":"GoG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c9fbe31d027bcf439a17955df60352f","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":872576830,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"k","text":"k","html":"k"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":872579010,"gmtCreate":1637553062592,"gmtModify":1637553062975,"author":{"id":"3579992296424941","authorId":"3579992296424941","name":"DMC8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65aa8f5f6299558ce2ab36482793f750","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3579992296424941","authorIdStr":"3579992296424941"},"htmlText":"Like pls&nbsp;","listText":"Like pls&nbsp;","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872579010","repostId":1158506816,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158506816","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637550842,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158506816?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-22 11:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal: Time To Go All In<blockquote>PayPal：是时候全力以赴了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158506816","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPayPal has fallen over 30% since its ATH due to poor guidance and increased competition con","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>PayPal has fallen over 30% since its ATH due to poor guidance and increased competition concerns.</li> <li>I argue that PayPal is still on track to achieve its long-term goals, and competition, albeit fierce, is manageable.</li> <li>The potential of Venmo and PayPal's future acquisition are what keep me coming back for more.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71b7d55858c35eda92a04deae062ef8b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">South_agency/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>由于指导不力和竞争担忧加剧，PayPal自ATH以来股价已下跌超过30%。</li><li>我认为PayPal仍在实现其长期目标的轨道上，竞争尽管激烈，但是可控的。</li><li>Venmo和PayPal未来收购的潜力让我不断回来购买更多。</li></ul>South_agency/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> Thesis Summary<blockquote>论文摘要</blockquote> Seven months ago, we analyzedPayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) and concluded that our target price of $425 for 2025 made the $266 purchase give a compound return of 10.5% per year. At the time, we were forecasting revenue, earnings, and PE ratios to calculate the target price.<blockquote>七个月前，我们分析了PayPal Holdings Inc.(PYPL)，得出的结论是，我们2025年425美元的目标价使得266美元的收购每年复合回报率为10.5%。当时，我们正在预测收入、盈利和市盈率来计算目标价。</blockquote> Although our forecasted PE ratio based on its relation to Earnings suggested the price was a little high for that point in time, it seemed that the market was granting the company a higher valuation given its remarkably consistent track record.<blockquote>尽管我们根据其与收益的关系预测市盈率表明当时的价格有点高，但鉴于该公司非常一致的业绩记录，市场似乎给予了该公司更高的估值。</blockquote> It took very little smoothing to set historical revenue growth at a consistent 17.9% per year, and as for the earnings margin, net income was very close to 13.55% of revenue almost every year. The only two exceptions were one negative, in 2014, and one positive, in 2020, where the margin was 19.6%.<blockquote>几乎不需要任何平滑就将历史收入增长率设定在每年17.9%，至于利润率，净利润几乎每年都非常接近收入的13.55%。仅有的两个例外是2014年的负利率和2020年的正利率，利润率为19.6%。</blockquote> As the year 2021 has progressed,PayPal has dropped significantly, all the way down to $200. At this price, the $425 target for 2025 would give you a compound annual return of 20.1%. I can think of three possible explanations for this collapse:<blockquote>随着2021年的进展，PayPal大幅下跌，一路跌至200美元。按照这个价格，2025年425美元的目标将为您带来20.1%的复合年回报率。对于这种崩溃，我可以想到三种可能的解释：</blockquote> a) The price was ahead of its time, and 2020 over performance got investors thinking growth had accelerated and that the price would go higher than we were forecasting. Ultimately, an investment relying on growth that has not yet materialized requires higher returns, and if the company is growing 18%, the investor wants to make at least 18% on their investment.<blockquote>a)价格领先于时代，2020年的表现让投资者认为增长已经加速，价格将高于我们的预期。最终，依赖尚未实现的增长的投资需要更高的回报，如果公司增长18%，投资者希望从投资中获得至少18%的回报。</blockquote> b) There is a perceived risk of earnings growth slowing down significantly based on the company's performance after looking at financial reports from the first three quarters of 2021.<blockquote>b)在查看2021年前三季度的财务报告后，根据公司的业绩，认为盈利增长存在大幅放缓的风险。</blockquote> c) There is a perceived risk of growth slowing down significantly due to factors outside of the company's financial performance, based on a qualitative analysis of the company and its addressable market.<blockquote>c)根据对公司及其目标市场的定性分析，由于公司财务业绩以外的因素，存在增长显着放缓的风险。</blockquote> If the correct answer is A, this is a great investment. If the logic feels compelling enough you should buy now and enjoy your 20% return over the years. I am going to focus on the other two scenarios, where we need to think about whether the business itself is actually in trouble.<blockquote>如果正确答案是A，这是一项伟大的投资。如果逻辑足够令人信服，您应该现在购买并享受多年来20%的回报。我将重点讨论另外两种情况，在这两种情况下，我们需要考虑企业本身是否真的陷入了困境。</blockquote> 2021 Financial Performance<blockquote>二零二一年财务表现</blockquote> Our previous analysis onPayPal was based on revenue and net income, as per GAAP figures up to 2020. Here I am going to look at the results of the first three quarters of 2021 to see if the results are disappointing.<blockquote>我们之前对PayPal的分析是基于截至2020年的GAAP数据的收入和净利润。这里我要看看2021年前三季度的业绩，看看业绩是否令人失望。</blockquote> First off, we have revenue growth. Indeed, quarter on quarter it doesn't look great, but this is not uncommon inPayPal's history of seasonality. If you look at the chart below, you can see that revenue grows the most in the fourth quarter, always drops in the first (QoQ), and has mixed results from the first to the third. Also, to continue on the 17.9% growth trend, revenue in the fourth quarter would only have to be %6.65 billion less than 8% higher than in the third quarter.<blockquote>首先，我们有收入增长。事实上，环比来看，情况并不乐观，但这在PayPal的季节性历史中并不罕见。如果你看下图，你可以看到第四季度收入增长最多，第一季度（环比）总是下降，并且从第一季度到第三季度的结果好坏参半。此外，要继续保持17.9%的增长趋势，第四季度的收入只需达到66.5亿美元，比第三季度增长不到8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fba8cbaa13348012cc020a72a4ecd1c\" tg-width=\"283\" tg-height=\"170\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。</blockquote> It appears that all is good with revenue growth so far and 2021 looks to deliver once again on the near 20% revenue growth figure. Let's take a look at earnings. So far in the first 3 quarters of 2021, earnings have been, just as in 2020, much higher than the previous trend of 13.5% of revenue. So far, earnings are between 17.5 and 19% of revenue, with an average of 18.3%. It is true that this was 19.6% in 2020, but it also means that we can no longer reasonably consider 2020 an anomaly in that respect.<blockquote>到目前为止，收入增长似乎一切顺利，2021年有望再次实现近20%的收入增长。我们来看看收益。到目前为止，2021年前3个季度的盈利与2020年一样，远高于之前占收入13.5%的趋势。到目前为止，盈利占收入的17.5%至19%之间，平均为18.3%。诚然，2020年这一比例为19.6%，但这也意味着我们不能再合理地认为2020年在这方面是一个异常现象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65fdec19cf0bd680067fed0f3ac34f92\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"290\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。2021年的数字是基于前3个季度的估计。</blockquote> Looking at these figures, the only thing that could worry investors is year-on-year growth rates. If you look at the table below you can see the growth rates of revenue and earnings for&nbsp;Q3 2021, YTD or YoY and with the 1-year growth rate or the 2-year CAGR.<blockquote>从这些数字来看，投资者唯一可能担心的是同比增长率。如果您查看下表，您可以看到2021年第三季度、年初至今或同比的收入和收益增长率以及1年增长率或2年CAGR。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c30583b007f9682b8b5c78496897f61d\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"145\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。</blockquote> This gives a clue of what might be the problem, as year-on-year growth rates in the third quarter look significantly worse than average, especially in earnings growth. However, if you take into account that 2020 Q3 was an exceptionally good quarter, it seems likePayPal is being punished for how good results were in 2020. If you look at the 2-year growth, results seem great, especially in earnings (it is also true that Q3 2019 was exceptionally bad, but one argument is as valid as the other).<blockquote>这为问题可能出在哪里提供了线索，因为第三季度的同比增长率看起来明显低于平均水平，尤其是在盈利增长方面。然而，如果你考虑到2020年第三季度是一个非常好的季度，那么PayPal似乎因2020年的良好业绩而受到惩罚。如果你看看两年的增长，结果似乎很好，尤其是在盈利方面（2019年第三季度确实异常糟糕，但一个论点和另一个一样有效）。</blockquote> To illustrate this point, imagine that net income had been lower in 2020. The chart below contains the same figures as the one before, except that 2020 net income has been arbitrarily reduced to fit a more growing pattern.<blockquote>为了说明这一点，想象一下2020年净利润较低。下图包含与上一张相同的数字，只是2020年净利润被任意减少以适应更增长的模式。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b14c61672e1db2d56752a6a07d858b3\" tg-width=\"483\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. *The figure from 2014 has been removed and the net income figure from 2020 has been reduced to illustrate the point explained above. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。*二零一四年的数字已删除，而二零二零年的净收入数字已减少，以说明上文所解释的要点。2021年的数字是基于前3个季度的估计。</blockquote> The result would be a much more promising-looking trend altogether. When taking short-term growth figures into account when valuing a company one should wonder if they are punishing bad results or actually punishing good results. All considered it doesn't seem like there is a reasonable cause in the observed financial performance ofPayPal that should make you think prospects are worse than they were 9 months ago.<blockquote>结果将是一个看起来更有希望的趋势。当在评估一家公司时考虑短期增长数据时，人们应该怀疑他们是在惩罚糟糕的结果还是实际上在惩罚好的结果。总的来说，观察到的PayPal财务表现似乎没有合理的原因让您认为前景比9个月前更糟糕。</blockquote> Is market growth a concern?<blockquote>市场增长令人担忧吗？</blockquote> With that said, the only other possible explanation is that, indeed, there are external factors that will prevent&nbsp;PayPal from expanding at the previously perceived rate. The stock was recently&nbsp;downgraded by Bernstein, claiming \"market share growth concerns\". The stock has slid over 30% since it reached an ATH at $300 makingPayPal's valuation that much more attractive. But how does this weigh against concerns over market growth?<blockquote>话虽如此，唯一其他可能的解释是，确实有外部因素会阻止PayPal以之前认为的速度扩张。该股最近被伯恩斯坦下调评级，声称“市场份额增长担忧”。自达到300美元的ATH以来，该股已下跌超过30%，这使得PayPal的估值更具吸引力。但这如何抵消对市场增长的担忧呢？</blockquote> \"Fintech\" is no longer a novel concept, and in the last few years, we have seen hundreds if not thousands of companies come out with similar versions of whatPayPal offers. To say the market is saturated, might even be an understatement, butPayPal remains the king of the hill.<blockquote>“金融科技”不再是一个新颖的概念，在过去几年中，我们已经看到数百家甚至数千家公司推出了PayPal提供的类似版本。说市场已经饱和甚至可能是一种保守的说法，但PayPal仍然是山中之王。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/462ce82e5652c8762836c4ef98dcdee5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: datanyze.com<blockquote>资料来源：datanyze.com</blockquote> In terms of Payment Processing Software,PayPal has over 50% of the market, and I say that because Braintree, which takes the fifth position, is also owned byPayPal. The problemPayPal faces though, isn't coming from the hundreds of startups and newly IPO'd companies, but by the large players which we also see on his list.<blockquote>在支付处理软件方面，PayPal拥有超过50%的市场份额，我这么说是因为排名第五的Braintree也归PayPal所有。然而，PayPal面临的问题并不是来自数百家初创公司和新上市的公司，而是来自我们在他的名单上也看到的大公司。</blockquote> This includes AmazonPay, Shopify Inc.'s (SHOP) ShopPay and even Google Pay. Arguably, some of these services have an advantage, in that their payment offerings complement other services. Shopify, for example, incentivizes its users and merchants to use its payment processing platforms, and Google has the advantage of being deeply embedded in a lot of the things we do.<blockquote>这包括AmazonPay、Shopify Inc.(SHOP)的ShopPay甚至Google Pay。可以说，其中一些服务具有优势，因为它们的支付产品补充了其他服务。例如，Shopify激励其用户和商家使用其支付处理平台，而谷歌的优势在于深入参与我们所做的许多事情。</blockquote> In this regard, Shopify and Amazon, for example, have a big advantage, in that they control where much of the money online is spent and can use this to their advantage. However, the payment system is not just limited to eCommerce.PayPal has a presence in many other areas, such as international transfers/transactions and physical payments.PayPal can be used as a bank, and there are also advantages to being a complete financial service focused company, just like there are advantages to having an ecosystem of buyers and sellers on your platform.<blockquote>例如，在这方面，Shopify和亚马逊有很大的优势，因为他们控制着大部分在线资金的花费，并可以利用这一点。然而，支付系统不仅仅局限于电子商务。PayPal在许多其他领域都有业务，如国际转账/交易和实物支付。PayPal可以用作银行，作为一家专注于完整金融服务的公司也有优势，就像在你的平台上拥有买家和卖家的生态系统也有优势一样。</blockquote> Yes, the market is saturated, and growth will become a challenge, but I still believe thatPayPal can succeed long-term and I'll explain why.<blockquote>是的，市场已经饱和，增长将成为一个挑战，但我仍然相信PayPal可以长期成功，我会解释原因。</blockquote> Two more reasons I will hold on toPayPal<blockquote>还有两个我会坚持下去的理由PayPal</blockquote> My analysis continues to support thatPayPal is on track to deliver the growth and returns I expected weeks ago. In this regard,PayPal offers growth at a reasonable price. It is a profitable and well-established company that is going nowhere.<blockquote>我的分析继续支持PayPal有望实现我几周前预期的增长和回报。在这方面，PayPal以合理的价格提供增长。这是一家盈利且信誉良好的公司，但却一事无成。</blockquote> More specifically though, two factors make me especially bullish onPayPal; Venmo and the power of its Balance Sheet.<blockquote>更具体地说，有两个因素让我特别看好PayPal；Venmo及其资产负债表的力量。</blockquote> Starting with Venmo, this is perhaps the biggest reason why I thinkPayPal still holds plenty of value and growth potential. Venmo is one of the most popular payment Apps in the United States. In 2020 over&nbsp;$159 billion in transactions&nbsp;were processed through Venmo in 2020, and the App is on track to deliver $900 million in revenues in 2021 according to the latest earnings call.<blockquote>从Venmo开始，这也许是我认为PayPal仍然拥有巨大价值和增长潜力的最大原因。Venmo是美国最受欢迎的支付应用之一。根据最新的收益看涨期权，2020年通过Venmo处理了超过1590亿美元的交易，该应用程序有望在2021年实现9亿美元的收入。</blockquote> But Venmo is barely scratching the surface of what it can achieve, both in terms of growth and monetization. When it comes to the latter, we can see that Venmo can still come a long way in terms of monetization if we compare it to Square Inc.'s (SQ) CashApp.According to estimates, CashApp produced $54 per user in 2020, while Venmo only made $12 from each active user. There are slight differences in transaction costs, but most of this comes from the fact that CashApp is used more for cryptocurrency transactions. This is something Venmo can easily replicate.<blockquote>但无论是在增长还是货币化方面，Venmo都只是触及了其所能实现的表面。谈到后者，如果我们将Venmo与Square Inc.(SQ)的CashApp进行比较，我们可以看到Venmo在货币化方面仍有很长的路要走。据估计，CashApp在2020年为每个用户带来了54美元的收入，而Venmo仅从每个活跃用户身上获得了12美元的收入。交易成本略有差异，但这大部分来自于CashApp更多地用于加密货币交易。这是Venmo可以轻松复制的。</blockquote> In terms of growth though, Venmo can go much farther. Originally, Venmo was conceived as a peer-to-peer payment system, but this is quickly moving to businesses too. Amazon.com (AMZN)&nbsp;will be accepting Venmo payments&nbsp;starting in 2022, and I believe this will see significant success.<blockquote>不过，就增长而言，Venmo可以走得更远。最初，Venmo被认为是一个点对点支付系统，但这也很快转移到企业。亚马逊(AMZN)将从2022年开始接受Venmo支付，我相信这将取得巨大成功。</blockquote> Venmo has a place in the mobile phones of 65 million people, and this is somethingPayPal can leverage to its advantage moving forward.<blockquote>Venmo在6500万人的手机中占有一席之地，这是PayPal可以利用的优势。</blockquote> The other big reason I will continue to holdPayPal is its incredible Balance Sheet, and all the growth opportunities this opens.PayPal has $13.29 billion in cash and negative net debt. It has a much stronger balance sheet than its most established peers, such as Mastercard Corporation (MA). It's now time forPayPal to put this money to good use to expand its platform, especially internationally, something we already got a taste of in the last investor presentation.<blockquote>我将继续持有PayPal的另一个重要原因是其令人难以置信的资产负债表，以及由此带来的所有增长机会。PayPal拥有132.9亿美元现金和负净债务。它的资产负债表比万事达卡公司（MA）等最成熟的同行要强大得多。现在是PayPal充分利用这笔资金来扩展其平台的时候了，特别是在国际上，我们已经在上次投资者演示中尝到了这一点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3484de41ef449aa085877ee9374fa00\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"648\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Investor Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：投资者介绍</blockquote> On September 7th, it was announced thatPayPal was acquiring Paidy, which uses artificial intelligence to find out the creditworthiness of its users and offers payment instalment plans. This is just one example of howPayPal can enter new markets and expand its footprint. Much like I argued before with Shopify,PayPal can now leverage Paidy to also push its other payment platforms into the Japanese market. I am very excited to see what other acquisitionsPayPal will make.<blockquote>9月7日，PayPal宣布收购Paidy，该公司使用人工智能来了解用户的信用度，并提供支付分期付款计划。这只是PayPal如何进入新市场并扩大其足迹的一个例子。就像我之前与Shopify争论的那样，PayPal现在可以利用Paidy将其其他支付平台推向日本市场。我很高兴看到PayPal还会进行哪些其他收购。</blockquote> Takeaway<blockquote>外卖</blockquote> In conclusion, and referring back to the thesis summary, I see no material reason why shares ofPayPal should continue to depreciate. Exogenous factors haven't changed, competition has always been tough and the company is still on track to deliver on its medium and long term growth targets.PayPal offers investors growth at a reasonable price, and that is hard to come by these days.<blockquote>总之，回到论文摘要，我认为PayPal的股价没有理由继续贬值。外生因素没有改变，竞争一直很激烈，公司仍有望实现中长期增长目标。PayPal以合理的价格为投资者提供增长，而这在当今很难实现。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal: Time To Go All In<blockquote>PayPal：是时候全力以赴了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal: Time To Go All In<blockquote>PayPal：是时候全力以赴了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-11-22 11:14\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>PayPal has fallen over 30% since its ATH due to poor guidance and increased competition concerns.</li> <li>I argue that PayPal is still on track to achieve its long-term goals, and competition, albeit fierce, is manageable.</li> <li>The potential of Venmo and PayPal's future acquisition are what keep me coming back for more.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71b7d55858c35eda92a04deae062ef8b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">South_agency/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>由于指导不力和竞争担忧加剧，PayPal自ATH以来股价已下跌超过30%。</li><li>我认为PayPal仍在实现其长期目标的轨道上，竞争尽管激烈，但是可控的。</li><li>Venmo和PayPal未来收购的潜力让我不断回来购买更多。</li></ul>South_agency/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> Thesis Summary<blockquote>论文摘要</blockquote> Seven months ago, we analyzedPayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) and concluded that our target price of $425 for 2025 made the $266 purchase give a compound return of 10.5% per year. At the time, we were forecasting revenue, earnings, and PE ratios to calculate the target price.<blockquote>七个月前，我们分析了PayPal Holdings Inc.(PYPL)，得出的结论是，我们2025年425美元的目标价使得266美元的收购每年复合回报率为10.5%。当时，我们正在预测收入、盈利和市盈率来计算目标价。</blockquote> Although our forecasted PE ratio based on its relation to Earnings suggested the price was a little high for that point in time, it seemed that the market was granting the company a higher valuation given its remarkably consistent track record.<blockquote>尽管我们根据其与收益的关系预测市盈率表明当时的价格有点高，但鉴于该公司非常一致的业绩记录，市场似乎给予了该公司更高的估值。</blockquote> It took very little smoothing to set historical revenue growth at a consistent 17.9% per year, and as for the earnings margin, net income was very close to 13.55% of revenue almost every year. The only two exceptions were one negative, in 2014, and one positive, in 2020, where the margin was 19.6%.<blockquote>几乎不需要任何平滑就将历史收入增长率设定在每年17.9%，至于利润率，净利润几乎每年都非常接近收入的13.55%。仅有的两个例外是2014年的负利率和2020年的正利率，利润率为19.6%。</blockquote> As the year 2021 has progressed,PayPal has dropped significantly, all the way down to $200. At this price, the $425 target for 2025 would give you a compound annual return of 20.1%. I can think of three possible explanations for this collapse:<blockquote>随着2021年的进展，PayPal大幅下跌，一路跌至200美元。按照这个价格，2025年425美元的目标将为您带来20.1%的复合年回报率。对于这种崩溃，我可以想到三种可能的解释：</blockquote> a) The price was ahead of its time, and 2020 over performance got investors thinking growth had accelerated and that the price would go higher than we were forecasting. Ultimately, an investment relying on growth that has not yet materialized requires higher returns, and if the company is growing 18%, the investor wants to make at least 18% on their investment.<blockquote>a)价格领先于时代，2020年的表现让投资者认为增长已经加速，价格将高于我们的预期。最终，依赖尚未实现的增长的投资需要更高的回报，如果公司增长18%，投资者希望从投资中获得至少18%的回报。</blockquote> b) There is a perceived risk of earnings growth slowing down significantly based on the company's performance after looking at financial reports from the first three quarters of 2021.<blockquote>b)在查看2021年前三季度的财务报告后，根据公司的业绩，认为盈利增长存在大幅放缓的风险。</blockquote> c) There is a perceived risk of growth slowing down significantly due to factors outside of the company's financial performance, based on a qualitative analysis of the company and its addressable market.<blockquote>c)根据对公司及其目标市场的定性分析，由于公司财务业绩以外的因素，存在增长显着放缓的风险。</blockquote> If the correct answer is A, this is a great investment. If the logic feels compelling enough you should buy now and enjoy your 20% return over the years. I am going to focus on the other two scenarios, where we need to think about whether the business itself is actually in trouble.<blockquote>如果正确答案是A，这是一项伟大的投资。如果逻辑足够令人信服，您应该现在购买并享受多年来20%的回报。我将重点讨论另外两种情况，在这两种情况下，我们需要考虑企业本身是否真的陷入了困境。</blockquote> 2021 Financial Performance<blockquote>二零二一年财务表现</blockquote> Our previous analysis onPayPal was based on revenue and net income, as per GAAP figures up to 2020. Here I am going to look at the results of the first three quarters of 2021 to see if the results are disappointing.<blockquote>我们之前对PayPal的分析是基于截至2020年的GAAP数据的收入和净利润。这里我要看看2021年前三季度的业绩，看看业绩是否令人失望。</blockquote> First off, we have revenue growth. Indeed, quarter on quarter it doesn't look great, but this is not uncommon inPayPal's history of seasonality. If you look at the chart below, you can see that revenue grows the most in the fourth quarter, always drops in the first (QoQ), and has mixed results from the first to the third. Also, to continue on the 17.9% growth trend, revenue in the fourth quarter would only have to be %6.65 billion less than 8% higher than in the third quarter.<blockquote>首先，我们有收入增长。事实上，环比来看，情况并不乐观，但这在PayPal的季节性历史中并不罕见。如果你看下图，你可以看到第四季度收入增长最多，第一季度（环比）总是下降，并且从第一季度到第三季度的结果好坏参半。此外，要继续保持17.9%的增长趋势，第四季度的收入只需达到66.5亿美元，比第三季度增长不到8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fba8cbaa13348012cc020a72a4ecd1c\" tg-width=\"283\" tg-height=\"170\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。</blockquote> It appears that all is good with revenue growth so far and 2021 looks to deliver once again on the near 20% revenue growth figure. Let's take a look at earnings. So far in the first 3 quarters of 2021, earnings have been, just as in 2020, much higher than the previous trend of 13.5% of revenue. So far, earnings are between 17.5 and 19% of revenue, with an average of 18.3%. It is true that this was 19.6% in 2020, but it also means that we can no longer reasonably consider 2020 an anomaly in that respect.<blockquote>到目前为止，收入增长似乎一切顺利，2021年有望再次实现近20%的收入增长。我们来看看收益。到目前为止，2021年前3个季度的盈利与2020年一样，远高于之前占收入13.5%的趋势。到目前为止，盈利占收入的17.5%至19%之间，平均为18.3%。诚然，2020年这一比例为19.6%，但这也意味着我们不能再合理地认为2020年在这方面是一个异常现象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65fdec19cf0bd680067fed0f3ac34f92\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"290\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。2021年的数字是基于前3个季度的估计。</blockquote> Looking at these figures, the only thing that could worry investors is year-on-year growth rates. If you look at the table below you can see the growth rates of revenue and earnings for&nbsp;Q3 2021, YTD or YoY and with the 1-year growth rate or the 2-year CAGR.<blockquote>从这些数字来看，投资者唯一可能担心的是同比增长率。如果您查看下表，您可以看到2021年第三季度、年初至今或同比的收入和收益增长率以及1年增长率或2年CAGR。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c30583b007f9682b8b5c78496897f61d\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"145\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。</blockquote> This gives a clue of what might be the problem, as year-on-year growth rates in the third quarter look significantly worse than average, especially in earnings growth. However, if you take into account that 2020 Q3 was an exceptionally good quarter, it seems likePayPal is being punished for how good results were in 2020. If you look at the 2-year growth, results seem great, especially in earnings (it is also true that Q3 2019 was exceptionally bad, but one argument is as valid as the other).<blockquote>这为问题可能出在哪里提供了线索，因为第三季度的同比增长率看起来明显低于平均水平，尤其是在盈利增长方面。然而，如果你考虑到2020年第三季度是一个非常好的季度，那么PayPal似乎因2020年的良好业绩而受到惩罚。如果你看看两年的增长，结果似乎很好，尤其是在盈利方面（2019年第三季度确实异常糟糕，但一个论点和另一个一样有效）。</blockquote> To illustrate this point, imagine that net income had been lower in 2020. The chart below contains the same figures as the one before, except that 2020 net income has been arbitrarily reduced to fit a more growing pattern.<blockquote>为了说明这一点，想象一下2020年净利润较低。下图包含与上一张相同的数字，只是2020年净利润被任意减少以适应更增长的模式。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b14c61672e1db2d56752a6a07d858b3\" tg-width=\"483\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. *The figure from 2014 has been removed and the net income figure from 2020 has been reduced to illustrate the point explained above. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。*二零一四年的数字已删除，而二零二零年的净收入数字已减少，以说明上文所解释的要点。2021年的数字是基于前3个季度的估计。</blockquote> The result would be a much more promising-looking trend altogether. When taking short-term growth figures into account when valuing a company one should wonder if they are punishing bad results or actually punishing good results. All considered it doesn't seem like there is a reasonable cause in the observed financial performance ofPayPal that should make you think prospects are worse than they were 9 months ago.<blockquote>结果将是一个看起来更有希望的趋势。当在评估一家公司时考虑短期增长数据时，人们应该怀疑他们是在惩罚糟糕的结果还是实际上在惩罚好的结果。总的来说，观察到的PayPal财务表现似乎没有合理的原因让您认为前景比9个月前更糟糕。</blockquote> Is market growth a concern?<blockquote>市场增长令人担忧吗？</blockquote> With that said, the only other possible explanation is that, indeed, there are external factors that will prevent&nbsp;PayPal from expanding at the previously perceived rate. The stock was recently&nbsp;downgraded by Bernstein, claiming \"market share growth concerns\". The stock has slid over 30% since it reached an ATH at $300 makingPayPal's valuation that much more attractive. But how does this weigh against concerns over market growth?<blockquote>话虽如此，唯一其他可能的解释是，确实有外部因素会阻止PayPal以之前认为的速度扩张。该股最近被伯恩斯坦下调评级，声称“市场份额增长担忧”。自达到300美元的ATH以来，该股已下跌超过30%，这使得PayPal的估值更具吸引力。但这如何抵消对市场增长的担忧呢？</blockquote> \"Fintech\" is no longer a novel concept, and in the last few years, we have seen hundreds if not thousands of companies come out with similar versions of whatPayPal offers. To say the market is saturated, might even be an understatement, butPayPal remains the king of the hill.<blockquote>“金融科技”不再是一个新颖的概念，在过去几年中，我们已经看到数百家甚至数千家公司推出了PayPal提供的类似版本。说市场已经饱和甚至可能是一种保守的说法，但PayPal仍然是山中之王。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/462ce82e5652c8762836c4ef98dcdee5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: datanyze.com<blockquote>资料来源：datanyze.com</blockquote> In terms of Payment Processing Software,PayPal has over 50% of the market, and I say that because Braintree, which takes the fifth position, is also owned byPayPal. The problemPayPal faces though, isn't coming from the hundreds of startups and newly IPO'd companies, but by the large players which we also see on his list.<blockquote>在支付处理软件方面，PayPal拥有超过50%的市场份额，我这么说是因为排名第五的Braintree也归PayPal所有。然而，PayPal面临的问题并不是来自数百家初创公司和新上市的公司，而是来自我们在他的名单上也看到的大公司。</blockquote> This includes AmazonPay, Shopify Inc.'s (SHOP) ShopPay and even Google Pay. Arguably, some of these services have an advantage, in that their payment offerings complement other services. Shopify, for example, incentivizes its users and merchants to use its payment processing platforms, and Google has the advantage of being deeply embedded in a lot of the things we do.<blockquote>这包括AmazonPay、Shopify Inc.(SHOP)的ShopPay甚至Google Pay。可以说，其中一些服务具有优势，因为它们的支付产品补充了其他服务。例如，Shopify激励其用户和商家使用其支付处理平台，而谷歌的优势在于深入参与我们所做的许多事情。</blockquote> In this regard, Shopify and Amazon, for example, have a big advantage, in that they control where much of the money online is spent and can use this to their advantage. However, the payment system is not just limited to eCommerce.PayPal has a presence in many other areas, such as international transfers/transactions and physical payments.PayPal can be used as a bank, and there are also advantages to being a complete financial service focused company, just like there are advantages to having an ecosystem of buyers and sellers on your platform.<blockquote>例如，在这方面，Shopify和亚马逊有很大的优势，因为他们控制着大部分在线资金的花费，并可以利用这一点。然而，支付系统不仅仅局限于电子商务。PayPal在许多其他领域都有业务，如国际转账/交易和实物支付。PayPal可以用作银行，作为一家专注于完整金融服务的公司也有优势，就像在你的平台上拥有买家和卖家的生态系统也有优势一样。</blockquote> Yes, the market is saturated, and growth will become a challenge, but I still believe thatPayPal can succeed long-term and I'll explain why.<blockquote>是的，市场已经饱和，增长将成为一个挑战，但我仍然相信PayPal可以长期成功，我会解释原因。</blockquote> Two more reasons I will hold on toPayPal<blockquote>还有两个我会坚持下去的理由PayPal</blockquote> My analysis continues to support thatPayPal is on track to deliver the growth and returns I expected weeks ago. In this regard,PayPal offers growth at a reasonable price. It is a profitable and well-established company that is going nowhere.<blockquote>我的分析继续支持PayPal有望实现我几周前预期的增长和回报。在这方面，PayPal以合理的价格提供增长。这是一家盈利且信誉良好的公司，但却一事无成。</blockquote> More specifically though, two factors make me especially bullish onPayPal; Venmo and the power of its Balance Sheet.<blockquote>更具体地说，有两个因素让我特别看好PayPal；Venmo及其资产负债表的力量。</blockquote> Starting with Venmo, this is perhaps the biggest reason why I thinkPayPal still holds plenty of value and growth potential. Venmo is one of the most popular payment Apps in the United States. In 2020 over&nbsp;$159 billion in transactions&nbsp;were processed through Venmo in 2020, and the App is on track to deliver $900 million in revenues in 2021 according to the latest earnings call.<blockquote>从Venmo开始，这也许是我认为PayPal仍然拥有巨大价值和增长潜力的最大原因。Venmo是美国最受欢迎的支付应用之一。根据最新的收益看涨期权，2020年通过Venmo处理了超过1590亿美元的交易，该应用程序有望在2021年实现9亿美元的收入。</blockquote> But Venmo is barely scratching the surface of what it can achieve, both in terms of growth and monetization. When it comes to the latter, we can see that Venmo can still come a long way in terms of monetization if we compare it to Square Inc.'s (SQ) CashApp.According to estimates, CashApp produced $54 per user in 2020, while Venmo only made $12 from each active user. There are slight differences in transaction costs, but most of this comes from the fact that CashApp is used more for cryptocurrency transactions. This is something Venmo can easily replicate.<blockquote>但无论是在增长还是货币化方面，Venmo都只是触及了其所能实现的表面。谈到后者，如果我们将Venmo与Square Inc.(SQ)的CashApp进行比较，我们可以看到Venmo在货币化方面仍有很长的路要走。据估计，CashApp在2020年为每个用户带来了54美元的收入，而Venmo仅从每个活跃用户身上获得了12美元的收入。交易成本略有差异，但这大部分来自于CashApp更多地用于加密货币交易。这是Venmo可以轻松复制的。</blockquote> In terms of growth though, Venmo can go much farther. Originally, Venmo was conceived as a peer-to-peer payment system, but this is quickly moving to businesses too. Amazon.com (AMZN)&nbsp;will be accepting Venmo payments&nbsp;starting in 2022, and I believe this will see significant success.<blockquote>不过，就增长而言，Venmo可以走得更远。最初，Venmo被认为是一个点对点支付系统，但这也很快转移到企业。亚马逊(AMZN)将从2022年开始接受Venmo支付，我相信这将取得巨大成功。</blockquote> Venmo has a place in the mobile phones of 65 million people, and this is somethingPayPal can leverage to its advantage moving forward.<blockquote>Venmo在6500万人的手机中占有一席之地，这是PayPal可以利用的优势。</blockquote> The other big reason I will continue to holdPayPal is its incredible Balance Sheet, and all the growth opportunities this opens.PayPal has $13.29 billion in cash and negative net debt. It has a much stronger balance sheet than its most established peers, such as Mastercard Corporation (MA). It's now time forPayPal to put this money to good use to expand its platform, especially internationally, something we already got a taste of in the last investor presentation.<blockquote>我将继续持有PayPal的另一个重要原因是其令人难以置信的资产负债表，以及由此带来的所有增长机会。PayPal拥有132.9亿美元现金和负净债务。它的资产负债表比万事达卡公司（MA）等最成熟的同行要强大得多。现在是PayPal充分利用这笔资金来扩展其平台的时候了，特别是在国际上，我们已经在上次投资者演示中尝到了这一点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3484de41ef449aa085877ee9374fa00\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"648\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Investor Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：投资者介绍</blockquote> On September 7th, it was announced thatPayPal was acquiring Paidy, which uses artificial intelligence to find out the creditworthiness of its users and offers payment instalment plans. This is just one example of howPayPal can enter new markets and expand its footprint. Much like I argued before with Shopify,PayPal can now leverage Paidy to also push its other payment platforms into the Japanese market. I am very excited to see what other acquisitionsPayPal will make.<blockquote>9月7日，PayPal宣布收购Paidy，该公司使用人工智能来了解用户的信用度，并提供支付分期付款计划。这只是PayPal如何进入新市场并扩大其足迹的一个例子。就像我之前与Shopify争论的那样，PayPal现在可以利用Paidy将其其他支付平台推向日本市场。我很高兴看到PayPal还会进行哪些其他收购。</blockquote> Takeaway<blockquote>外卖</blockquote> In conclusion, and referring back to the thesis summary, I see no material reason why shares ofPayPal should continue to depreciate. Exogenous factors haven't changed, competition has always been tough and the company is still on track to deliver on its medium and long term growth targets.PayPal offers investors growth at a reasonable price, and that is hard to come by these days.<blockquote>总之，回到论文摘要，我认为PayPal的股价没有理由继续贬值。外生因素没有改变，竞争一直很激烈，公司仍有望实现中长期增长目标。PayPal以合理的价格为投资者提供增长，而这在当今很难实现。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4470923-paypal-time-to-go-all-in\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4470923-paypal-time-to-go-all-in","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158506816","content_text":"Summary\n\nPayPal has fallen over 30% since its ATH due to poor guidance and increased competition concerns.\nI argue that PayPal is still on track to achieve its long-term goals, and competition, albeit fierce, is manageable.\nThe potential of Venmo and PayPal's future acquisition are what keep me coming back for more.\n\nSouth_agency/E+ via Getty Images\nThesis Summary\nSeven months ago, we analyzedPayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) and concluded that our target price of $425 for 2025 made the $266 purchase give a compound return of 10.5% per year. At the time, we were forecasting revenue, earnings, and PE ratios to calculate the target price.\nAlthough our forecasted PE ratio based on its relation to Earnings suggested the price was a little high for that point in time, it seemed that the market was granting the company a higher valuation given its remarkably consistent track record.\nIt took very little smoothing to set historical revenue growth at a consistent 17.9% per year, and as for the earnings margin, net income was very close to 13.55% of revenue almost every year. The only two exceptions were one negative, in 2014, and one positive, in 2020, where the margin was 19.6%.\nAs the year 2021 has progressed,PayPal has dropped significantly, all the way down to $200. At this price, the $425 target for 2025 would give you a compound annual return of 20.1%. I can think of three possible explanations for this collapse:\na) The price was ahead of its time, and 2020 over performance got investors thinking growth had accelerated and that the price would go higher than we were forecasting. Ultimately, an investment relying on growth that has not yet materialized requires higher returns, and if the company is growing 18%, the investor wants to make at least 18% on their investment.\nb) There is a perceived risk of earnings growth slowing down significantly based on the company's performance after looking at financial reports from the first three quarters of 2021.\nc) There is a perceived risk of growth slowing down significantly due to factors outside of the company's financial performance, based on a qualitative analysis of the company and its addressable market.\nIf the correct answer is A, this is a great investment. If the logic feels compelling enough you should buy now and enjoy your 20% return over the years. I am going to focus on the other two scenarios, where we need to think about whether the business itself is actually in trouble.\n2021 Financial Performance\nOur previous analysis onPayPal was based on revenue and net income, as per GAAP figures up to 2020. Here I am going to look at the results of the first three quarters of 2021 to see if the results are disappointing.\nFirst off, we have revenue growth. Indeed, quarter on quarter it doesn't look great, but this is not uncommon inPayPal's history of seasonality. If you look at the chart below, you can see that revenue grows the most in the fourth quarter, always drops in the first (QoQ), and has mixed results from the first to the third. Also, to continue on the 17.9% growth trend, revenue in the fourth quarter would only have to be %6.65 billion less than 8% higher than in the third quarter.\nSource: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions.\nIt appears that all is good with revenue growth so far and 2021 looks to deliver once again on the near 20% revenue growth figure. Let's take a look at earnings. So far in the first 3 quarters of 2021, earnings have been, just as in 2020, much higher than the previous trend of 13.5% of revenue. So far, earnings are between 17.5 and 19% of revenue, with an average of 18.3%. It is true that this was 19.6% in 2020, but it also means that we can no longer reasonably consider 2020 an anomaly in that respect.\nSource: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.\nLooking at these figures, the only thing that could worry investors is year-on-year growth rates. If you look at the table below you can see the growth rates of revenue and earnings for Q3 2021, YTD or YoY and with the 1-year growth rate or the 2-year CAGR.\nSource: Author's work based on financial reports.\nThis gives a clue of what might be the problem, as year-on-year growth rates in the third quarter look significantly worse than average, especially in earnings growth. However, if you take into account that 2020 Q3 was an exceptionally good quarter, it seems likePayPal is being punished for how good results were in 2020. If you look at the 2-year growth, results seem great, especially in earnings (it is also true that Q3 2019 was exceptionally bad, but one argument is as valid as the other).\nTo illustrate this point, imagine that net income had been lower in 2020. The chart below contains the same figures as the one before, except that 2020 net income has been arbitrarily reduced to fit a more growing pattern.\nSource: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. *The figure from 2014 has been removed and the net income figure from 2020 has been reduced to illustrate the point explained above. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.\nThe result would be a much more promising-looking trend altogether. When taking short-term growth figures into account when valuing a company one should wonder if they are punishing bad results or actually punishing good results. All considered it doesn't seem like there is a reasonable cause in the observed financial performance ofPayPal that should make you think prospects are worse than they were 9 months ago.\nIs market growth a concern?\nWith that said, the only other possible explanation is that, indeed, there are external factors that will prevent PayPal from expanding at the previously perceived rate. The stock was recently downgraded by Bernstein, claiming \"market share growth concerns\". The stock has slid over 30% since it reached an ATH at $300 makingPayPal's valuation that much more attractive. But how does this weigh against concerns over market growth?\n\"Fintech\" is no longer a novel concept, and in the last few years, we have seen hundreds if not thousands of companies come out with similar versions of whatPayPal offers. To say the market is saturated, might even be an understatement, butPayPal remains the king of the hill.\nSource: datanyze.com\nIn terms of Payment Processing Software,PayPal has over 50% of the market, and I say that because Braintree, which takes the fifth position, is also owned byPayPal. The problemPayPal faces though, isn't coming from the hundreds of startups and newly IPO'd companies, but by the large players which we also see on his list.\nThis includes AmazonPay, Shopify Inc.'s (SHOP) ShopPay and even Google Pay. Arguably, some of these services have an advantage, in that their payment offerings complement other services. Shopify, for example, incentivizes its users and merchants to use its payment processing platforms, and Google has the advantage of being deeply embedded in a lot of the things we do.\nIn this regard, Shopify and Amazon, for example, have a big advantage, in that they control where much of the money online is spent and can use this to their advantage. However, the payment system is not just limited to eCommerce.PayPal has a presence in many other areas, such as international transfers/transactions and physical payments.PayPal can be used as a bank, and there are also advantages to being a complete financial service focused company, just like there are advantages to having an ecosystem of buyers and sellers on your platform.\nYes, the market is saturated, and growth will become a challenge, but I still believe thatPayPal can succeed long-term and I'll explain why.\nTwo more reasons I will hold on toPayPal\nMy analysis continues to support thatPayPal is on track to deliver the growth and returns I expected weeks ago. In this regard,PayPal offers growth at a reasonable price. It is a profitable and well-established company that is going nowhere.\nMore specifically though, two factors make me especially bullish onPayPal; Venmo and the power of its Balance Sheet.\nStarting with Venmo, this is perhaps the biggest reason why I thinkPayPal still holds plenty of value and growth potential. Venmo is one of the most popular payment Apps in the United States. In 2020 over $159 billion in transactions were processed through Venmo in 2020, and the App is on track to deliver $900 million in revenues in 2021 according to the latest earnings call.\nBut Venmo is barely scratching the surface of what it can achieve, both in terms of growth and monetization. When it comes to the latter, we can see that Venmo can still come a long way in terms of monetization if we compare it to Square Inc.'s (SQ) CashApp.According to estimates, CashApp produced $54 per user in 2020, while Venmo only made $12 from each active user. There are slight differences in transaction costs, but most of this comes from the fact that CashApp is used more for cryptocurrency transactions. This is something Venmo can easily replicate.\nIn terms of growth though, Venmo can go much farther. Originally, Venmo was conceived as a peer-to-peer payment system, but this is quickly moving to businesses too. Amazon.com (AMZN) will be accepting Venmo payments starting in 2022, and I believe this will see significant success.\nVenmo has a place in the mobile phones of 65 million people, and this is somethingPayPal can leverage to its advantage moving forward.\nThe other big reason I will continue to holdPayPal is its incredible Balance Sheet, and all the growth opportunities this opens.PayPal has $13.29 billion in cash and negative net debt. It has a much stronger balance sheet than its most established peers, such as Mastercard Corporation (MA). It's now time forPayPal to put this money to good use to expand its platform, especially internationally, something we already got a taste of in the last investor presentation.\nSource: Investor Presentation\nOn September 7th, it was announced thatPayPal was acquiring Paidy, which uses artificial intelligence to find out the creditworthiness of its users and offers payment instalment plans. This is just one example of howPayPal can enter new markets and expand its footprint. Much like I argued before with Shopify,PayPal can now leverage Paidy to also push its other payment platforms into the Japanese market. I am very excited to see what other acquisitionsPayPal will make.\nTakeaway\nIn conclusion, and referring back to the thesis summary, I see no material reason why shares ofPayPal should continue to depreciate. Exogenous factors haven't changed, competition has always been tough and the company is still on track to deliver on its medium and long term growth targets.PayPal offers investors growth at a reasonable price, and that is hard to come by these days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":872570945,"gmtCreate":1637552928288,"gmtModify":1637552928566,"author":{"id":"3555043402922696","authorId":"3555043402922696","name":"Never ever f","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52501d43721648c944a019db9c767c5d","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3555043402922696","authorIdStr":"3555043402922696"},"htmlText":"Payback time !","listText":"Payback time !","text":"Payback time !","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872570945","repostId":1158506816,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158506816","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637550842,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158506816?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-22 11:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal: Time To Go All In<blockquote>PayPal：是时候全力以赴了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158506816","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPayPal has fallen over 30% since its ATH due to poor guidance and increased competition con","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>PayPal has fallen over 30% since its ATH due to poor guidance and increased competition concerns.</li> <li>I argue that PayPal is still on track to achieve its long-term goals, and competition, albeit fierce, is manageable.</li> <li>The potential of Venmo and PayPal's future acquisition are what keep me coming back for more.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71b7d55858c35eda92a04deae062ef8b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">South_agency/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>由于指导不力和竞争担忧加剧，PayPal自ATH以来股价已下跌超过30%。</li><li>我认为PayPal仍在实现其长期目标的轨道上，竞争尽管激烈，但是可控的。</li><li>Venmo和PayPal未来收购的潜力让我不断回来购买更多。</li></ul>South_agency/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> Thesis Summary<blockquote>论文摘要</blockquote> Seven months ago, we analyzedPayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) and concluded that our target price of $425 for 2025 made the $266 purchase give a compound return of 10.5% per year. At the time, we were forecasting revenue, earnings, and PE ratios to calculate the target price.<blockquote>七个月前，我们分析了PayPal Holdings Inc.(PYPL)，得出的结论是，我们2025年425美元的目标价使得266美元的收购每年复合回报率为10.5%。当时，我们正在预测收入、盈利和市盈率来计算目标价。</blockquote> Although our forecasted PE ratio based on its relation to Earnings suggested the price was a little high for that point in time, it seemed that the market was granting the company a higher valuation given its remarkably consistent track record.<blockquote>尽管我们根据其与收益的关系预测市盈率表明当时的价格有点高，但鉴于该公司非常一致的业绩记录，市场似乎给予了该公司更高的估值。</blockquote> It took very little smoothing to set historical revenue growth at a consistent 17.9% per year, and as for the earnings margin, net income was very close to 13.55% of revenue almost every year. The only two exceptions were one negative, in 2014, and one positive, in 2020, where the margin was 19.6%.<blockquote>几乎不需要任何平滑就将历史收入增长率设定在每年17.9%，至于利润率，净利润几乎每年都非常接近收入的13.55%。仅有的两个例外是2014年的负利率和2020年的正利率，利润率为19.6%。</blockquote> As the year 2021 has progressed,PayPal has dropped significantly, all the way down to $200. At this price, the $425 target for 2025 would give you a compound annual return of 20.1%. I can think of three possible explanations for this collapse:<blockquote>随着2021年的进展，PayPal大幅下跌，一路跌至200美元。按照这个价格，2025年425美元的目标将为您带来20.1%的复合年回报率。对于这种崩溃，我可以想到三种可能的解释：</blockquote> a) The price was ahead of its time, and 2020 over performance got investors thinking growth had accelerated and that the price would go higher than we were forecasting. Ultimately, an investment relying on growth that has not yet materialized requires higher returns, and if the company is growing 18%, the investor wants to make at least 18% on their investment.<blockquote>a)价格领先于时代，2020年的表现让投资者认为增长已经加速，价格将高于我们的预期。最终，依赖尚未实现的增长的投资需要更高的回报，如果公司增长18%，投资者希望从投资中获得至少18%的回报。</blockquote> b) There is a perceived risk of earnings growth slowing down significantly based on the company's performance after looking at financial reports from the first three quarters of 2021.<blockquote>b)在查看2021年前三季度的财务报告后，根据公司的业绩，认为盈利增长存在大幅放缓的风险。</blockquote> c) There is a perceived risk of growth slowing down significantly due to factors outside of the company's financial performance, based on a qualitative analysis of the company and its addressable market.<blockquote>c)根据对公司及其目标市场的定性分析，由于公司财务业绩以外的因素，存在增长显着放缓的风险。</blockquote> If the correct answer is A, this is a great investment. If the logic feels compelling enough you should buy now and enjoy your 20% return over the years. I am going to focus on the other two scenarios, where we need to think about whether the business itself is actually in trouble.<blockquote>如果正确答案是A，这是一项伟大的投资。如果逻辑足够令人信服，您应该现在购买并享受多年来20%的回报。我将重点讨论另外两种情况，在这两种情况下，我们需要考虑企业本身是否真的陷入了困境。</blockquote> 2021 Financial Performance<blockquote>二零二一年财务表现</blockquote> Our previous analysis onPayPal was based on revenue and net income, as per GAAP figures up to 2020. Here I am going to look at the results of the first three quarters of 2021 to see if the results are disappointing.<blockquote>我们之前对PayPal的分析是基于截至2020年的GAAP数据的收入和净利润。这里我要看看2021年前三季度的业绩，看看业绩是否令人失望。</blockquote> First off, we have revenue growth. Indeed, quarter on quarter it doesn't look great, but this is not uncommon inPayPal's history of seasonality. If you look at the chart below, you can see that revenue grows the most in the fourth quarter, always drops in the first (QoQ), and has mixed results from the first to the third. Also, to continue on the 17.9% growth trend, revenue in the fourth quarter would only have to be %6.65 billion less than 8% higher than in the third quarter.<blockquote>首先，我们有收入增长。事实上，环比来看，情况并不乐观，但这在PayPal的季节性历史中并不罕见。如果你看下图，你可以看到第四季度收入增长最多，第一季度（环比）总是下降，并且从第一季度到第三季度的结果好坏参半。此外，要继续保持17.9%的增长趋势，第四季度的收入只需达到66.5亿美元，比第三季度增长不到8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fba8cbaa13348012cc020a72a4ecd1c\" tg-width=\"283\" tg-height=\"170\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。</blockquote> It appears that all is good with revenue growth so far and 2021 looks to deliver once again on the near 20% revenue growth figure. Let's take a look at earnings. So far in the first 3 quarters of 2021, earnings have been, just as in 2020, much higher than the previous trend of 13.5% of revenue. So far, earnings are between 17.5 and 19% of revenue, with an average of 18.3%. It is true that this was 19.6% in 2020, but it also means that we can no longer reasonably consider 2020 an anomaly in that respect.<blockquote>到目前为止，收入增长似乎一切顺利，2021年有望再次实现近20%的收入增长。我们来看看收益。到目前为止，2021年前3个季度的盈利与2020年一样，远高于之前占收入13.5%的趋势。到目前为止，盈利占收入的17.5%至19%之间，平均为18.3%。诚然，2020年这一比例为19.6%，但这也意味着我们不能再合理地认为2020年在这方面是一个异常现象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65fdec19cf0bd680067fed0f3ac34f92\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"290\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。2021年的数字是基于前3个季度的估计。</blockquote> Looking at these figures, the only thing that could worry investors is year-on-year growth rates. If you look at the table below you can see the growth rates of revenue and earnings for&nbsp;Q3 2021, YTD or YoY and with the 1-year growth rate or the 2-year CAGR.<blockquote>从这些数字来看，投资者唯一可能担心的是同比增长率。如果您查看下表，您可以看到2021年第三季度、年初至今或同比的收入和收益增长率以及1年增长率或2年CAGR。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c30583b007f9682b8b5c78496897f61d\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"145\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。</blockquote> This gives a clue of what might be the problem, as year-on-year growth rates in the third quarter look significantly worse than average, especially in earnings growth. However, if you take into account that 2020 Q3 was an exceptionally good quarter, it seems likePayPal is being punished for how good results were in 2020. If you look at the 2-year growth, results seem great, especially in earnings (it is also true that Q3 2019 was exceptionally bad, but one argument is as valid as the other).<blockquote>这为问题可能出在哪里提供了线索，因为第三季度的同比增长率看起来明显低于平均水平，尤其是在盈利增长方面。然而，如果你考虑到2020年第三季度是一个非常好的季度，那么PayPal似乎因2020年的良好业绩而受到惩罚。如果你看看两年的增长，结果似乎很好，尤其是在盈利方面（2019年第三季度确实异常糟糕，但一个论点和另一个一样有效）。</blockquote> To illustrate this point, imagine that net income had been lower in 2020. The chart below contains the same figures as the one before, except that 2020 net income has been arbitrarily reduced to fit a more growing pattern.<blockquote>为了说明这一点，想象一下2020年净利润较低。下图包含与上一张相同的数字，只是2020年净利润被任意减少以适应更增长的模式。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b14c61672e1db2d56752a6a07d858b3\" tg-width=\"483\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. *The figure from 2014 has been removed and the net income figure from 2020 has been reduced to illustrate the point explained above. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。*二零一四年的数字已删除，而二零二零年的净收入数字已减少，以说明上文所解释的要点。2021年的数字是基于前3个季度的估计。</blockquote> The result would be a much more promising-looking trend altogether. When taking short-term growth figures into account when valuing a company one should wonder if they are punishing bad results or actually punishing good results. All considered it doesn't seem like there is a reasonable cause in the observed financial performance ofPayPal that should make you think prospects are worse than they were 9 months ago.<blockquote>结果将是一个看起来更有希望的趋势。当在评估一家公司时考虑短期增长数据时，人们应该怀疑他们是在惩罚糟糕的结果还是实际上在惩罚好的结果。总的来说，观察到的PayPal财务表现似乎没有合理的原因让您认为前景比9个月前更糟糕。</blockquote> Is market growth a concern?<blockquote>市场增长令人担忧吗？</blockquote> With that said, the only other possible explanation is that, indeed, there are external factors that will prevent&nbsp;PayPal from expanding at the previously perceived rate. The stock was recently&nbsp;downgraded by Bernstein, claiming \"market share growth concerns\". The stock has slid over 30% since it reached an ATH at $300 makingPayPal's valuation that much more attractive. But how does this weigh against concerns over market growth?<blockquote>话虽如此，唯一其他可能的解释是，确实有外部因素会阻止PayPal以之前认为的速度扩张。该股最近被伯恩斯坦下调评级，声称“市场份额增长担忧”。自达到300美元的ATH以来，该股已下跌超过30%，这使得PayPal的估值更具吸引力。但这如何抵消对市场增长的担忧呢？</blockquote> \"Fintech\" is no longer a novel concept, and in the last few years, we have seen hundreds if not thousands of companies come out with similar versions of whatPayPal offers. To say the market is saturated, might even be an understatement, butPayPal remains the king of the hill.<blockquote>“金融科技”不再是一个新颖的概念，在过去几年中，我们已经看到数百家甚至数千家公司推出了PayPal提供的类似版本。说市场已经饱和甚至可能是一种保守的说法，但PayPal仍然是山中之王。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/462ce82e5652c8762836c4ef98dcdee5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: datanyze.com<blockquote>资料来源：datanyze.com</blockquote> In terms of Payment Processing Software,PayPal has over 50% of the market, and I say that because Braintree, which takes the fifth position, is also owned byPayPal. The problemPayPal faces though, isn't coming from the hundreds of startups and newly IPO'd companies, but by the large players which we also see on his list.<blockquote>在支付处理软件方面，PayPal拥有超过50%的市场份额，我这么说是因为排名第五的Braintree也归PayPal所有。然而，PayPal面临的问题并不是来自数百家初创公司和新上市的公司，而是来自我们在他的名单上也看到的大公司。</blockquote> This includes AmazonPay, Shopify Inc.'s (SHOP) ShopPay and even Google Pay. Arguably, some of these services have an advantage, in that their payment offerings complement other services. Shopify, for example, incentivizes its users and merchants to use its payment processing platforms, and Google has the advantage of being deeply embedded in a lot of the things we do.<blockquote>这包括AmazonPay、Shopify Inc.(SHOP)的ShopPay甚至Google Pay。可以说，其中一些服务具有优势，因为它们的支付产品补充了其他服务。例如，Shopify激励其用户和商家使用其支付处理平台，而谷歌的优势在于深入参与我们所做的许多事情。</blockquote> In this regard, Shopify and Amazon, for example, have a big advantage, in that they control where much of the money online is spent and can use this to their advantage. However, the payment system is not just limited to eCommerce.PayPal has a presence in many other areas, such as international transfers/transactions and physical payments.PayPal can be used as a bank, and there are also advantages to being a complete financial service focused company, just like there are advantages to having an ecosystem of buyers and sellers on your platform.<blockquote>例如，在这方面，Shopify和亚马逊有很大的优势，因为他们控制着大部分在线资金的花费，并可以利用这一点。然而，支付系统不仅仅局限于电子商务。PayPal在许多其他领域都有业务，如国际转账/交易和实物支付。PayPal可以用作银行，作为一家专注于完整金融服务的公司也有优势，就像在你的平台上拥有买家和卖家的生态系统也有优势一样。</blockquote> Yes, the market is saturated, and growth will become a challenge, but I still believe thatPayPal can succeed long-term and I'll explain why.<blockquote>是的，市场已经饱和，增长将成为一个挑战，但我仍然相信PayPal可以长期成功，我会解释原因。</blockquote> Two more reasons I will hold on toPayPal<blockquote>还有两个我会坚持下去的理由PayPal</blockquote> My analysis continues to support thatPayPal is on track to deliver the growth and returns I expected weeks ago. In this regard,PayPal offers growth at a reasonable price. It is a profitable and well-established company that is going nowhere.<blockquote>我的分析继续支持PayPal有望实现我几周前预期的增长和回报。在这方面，PayPal以合理的价格提供增长。这是一家盈利且信誉良好的公司，但却一事无成。</blockquote> More specifically though, two factors make me especially bullish onPayPal; Venmo and the power of its Balance Sheet.<blockquote>更具体地说，有两个因素让我特别看好PayPal；Venmo及其资产负债表的力量。</blockquote> Starting with Venmo, this is perhaps the biggest reason why I thinkPayPal still holds plenty of value and growth potential. Venmo is one of the most popular payment Apps in the United States. In 2020 over&nbsp;$159 billion in transactions&nbsp;were processed through Venmo in 2020, and the App is on track to deliver $900 million in revenues in 2021 according to the latest earnings call.<blockquote>从Venmo开始，这也许是我认为PayPal仍然拥有巨大价值和增长潜力的最大原因。Venmo是美国最受欢迎的支付应用之一。根据最新的收益看涨期权，2020年通过Venmo处理了超过1590亿美元的交易，该应用程序有望在2021年实现9亿美元的收入。</blockquote> But Venmo is barely scratching the surface of what it can achieve, both in terms of growth and monetization. When it comes to the latter, we can see that Venmo can still come a long way in terms of monetization if we compare it to Square Inc.'s (SQ) CashApp.According to estimates, CashApp produced $54 per user in 2020, while Venmo only made $12 from each active user. There are slight differences in transaction costs, but most of this comes from the fact that CashApp is used more for cryptocurrency transactions. This is something Venmo can easily replicate.<blockquote>但无论是在增长还是货币化方面，Venmo都只是触及了其所能实现的表面。谈到后者，如果我们将Venmo与Square Inc.(SQ)的CashApp进行比较，我们可以看到Venmo在货币化方面仍有很长的路要走。据估计，CashApp在2020年为每个用户带来了54美元的收入，而Venmo仅从每个活跃用户身上获得了12美元的收入。交易成本略有差异，但这大部分来自于CashApp更多地用于加密货币交易。这是Venmo可以轻松复制的。</blockquote> In terms of growth though, Venmo can go much farther. Originally, Venmo was conceived as a peer-to-peer payment system, but this is quickly moving to businesses too. Amazon.com (AMZN)&nbsp;will be accepting Venmo payments&nbsp;starting in 2022, and I believe this will see significant success.<blockquote>不过，就增长而言，Venmo可以走得更远。最初，Venmo被认为是一个点对点支付系统，但这也很快转移到企业。亚马逊(AMZN)将从2022年开始接受Venmo支付，我相信这将取得巨大成功。</blockquote> Venmo has a place in the mobile phones of 65 million people, and this is somethingPayPal can leverage to its advantage moving forward.<blockquote>Venmo在6500万人的手机中占有一席之地，这是PayPal可以利用的优势。</blockquote> The other big reason I will continue to holdPayPal is its incredible Balance Sheet, and all the growth opportunities this opens.PayPal has $13.29 billion in cash and negative net debt. It has a much stronger balance sheet than its most established peers, such as Mastercard Corporation (MA). It's now time forPayPal to put this money to good use to expand its platform, especially internationally, something we already got a taste of in the last investor presentation.<blockquote>我将继续持有PayPal的另一个重要原因是其令人难以置信的资产负债表，以及由此带来的所有增长机会。PayPal拥有132.9亿美元现金和负净债务。它的资产负债表比万事达卡公司（MA）等最成熟的同行要强大得多。现在是PayPal充分利用这笔资金来扩展其平台的时候了，特别是在国际上，我们已经在上次投资者演示中尝到了这一点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3484de41ef449aa085877ee9374fa00\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"648\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Investor Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：投资者介绍</blockquote> On September 7th, it was announced thatPayPal was acquiring Paidy, which uses artificial intelligence to find out the creditworthiness of its users and offers payment instalment plans. This is just one example of howPayPal can enter new markets and expand its footprint. Much like I argued before with Shopify,PayPal can now leverage Paidy to also push its other payment platforms into the Japanese market. I am very excited to see what other acquisitionsPayPal will make.<blockquote>9月7日，PayPal宣布收购Paidy，该公司使用人工智能来了解用户的信用度，并提供支付分期付款计划。这只是PayPal如何进入新市场并扩大其足迹的一个例子。就像我之前与Shopify争论的那样，PayPal现在可以利用Paidy将其其他支付平台推向日本市场。我很高兴看到PayPal还会进行哪些其他收购。</blockquote> Takeaway<blockquote>外卖</blockquote> In conclusion, and referring back to the thesis summary, I see no material reason why shares ofPayPal should continue to depreciate. Exogenous factors haven't changed, competition has always been tough and the company is still on track to deliver on its medium and long term growth targets.PayPal offers investors growth at a reasonable price, and that is hard to come by these days.<blockquote>总之，回到论文摘要，我认为PayPal的股价没有理由继续贬值。外生因素没有改变，竞争一直很激烈，公司仍有望实现中长期增长目标。PayPal以合理的价格为投资者提供增长，而这在当今很难实现。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal: Time To Go All In<blockquote>PayPal：是时候全力以赴了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal: Time To Go All In<blockquote>PayPal：是时候全力以赴了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-11-22 11:14\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>PayPal has fallen over 30% since its ATH due to poor guidance and increased competition concerns.</li> <li>I argue that PayPal is still on track to achieve its long-term goals, and competition, albeit fierce, is manageable.</li> <li>The potential of Venmo and PayPal's future acquisition are what keep me coming back for more.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71b7d55858c35eda92a04deae062ef8b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">South_agency/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>由于指导不力和竞争担忧加剧，PayPal自ATH以来股价已下跌超过30%。</li><li>我认为PayPal仍在实现其长期目标的轨道上，竞争尽管激烈，但是可控的。</li><li>Venmo和PayPal未来收购的潜力让我不断回来购买更多。</li></ul>South_agency/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> Thesis Summary<blockquote>论文摘要</blockquote> Seven months ago, we analyzedPayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) and concluded that our target price of $425 for 2025 made the $266 purchase give a compound return of 10.5% per year. At the time, we were forecasting revenue, earnings, and PE ratios to calculate the target price.<blockquote>七个月前，我们分析了PayPal Holdings Inc.(PYPL)，得出的结论是，我们2025年425美元的目标价使得266美元的收购每年复合回报率为10.5%。当时，我们正在预测收入、盈利和市盈率来计算目标价。</blockquote> Although our forecasted PE ratio based on its relation to Earnings suggested the price was a little high for that point in time, it seemed that the market was granting the company a higher valuation given its remarkably consistent track record.<blockquote>尽管我们根据其与收益的关系预测市盈率表明当时的价格有点高，但鉴于该公司非常一致的业绩记录，市场似乎给予了该公司更高的估值。</blockquote> It took very little smoothing to set historical revenue growth at a consistent 17.9% per year, and as for the earnings margin, net income was very close to 13.55% of revenue almost every year. The only two exceptions were one negative, in 2014, and one positive, in 2020, where the margin was 19.6%.<blockquote>几乎不需要任何平滑就将历史收入增长率设定在每年17.9%，至于利润率，净利润几乎每年都非常接近收入的13.55%。仅有的两个例外是2014年的负利率和2020年的正利率，利润率为19.6%。</blockquote> As the year 2021 has progressed,PayPal has dropped significantly, all the way down to $200. At this price, the $425 target for 2025 would give you a compound annual return of 20.1%. I can think of three possible explanations for this collapse:<blockquote>随着2021年的进展，PayPal大幅下跌，一路跌至200美元。按照这个价格，2025年425美元的目标将为您带来20.1%的复合年回报率。对于这种崩溃，我可以想到三种可能的解释：</blockquote> a) The price was ahead of its time, and 2020 over performance got investors thinking growth had accelerated and that the price would go higher than we were forecasting. Ultimately, an investment relying on growth that has not yet materialized requires higher returns, and if the company is growing 18%, the investor wants to make at least 18% on their investment.<blockquote>a)价格领先于时代，2020年的表现让投资者认为增长已经加速，价格将高于我们的预期。最终，依赖尚未实现的增长的投资需要更高的回报，如果公司增长18%，投资者希望从投资中获得至少18%的回报。</blockquote> b) There is a perceived risk of earnings growth slowing down significantly based on the company's performance after looking at financial reports from the first three quarters of 2021.<blockquote>b)在查看2021年前三季度的财务报告后，根据公司的业绩，认为盈利增长存在大幅放缓的风险。</blockquote> c) There is a perceived risk of growth slowing down significantly due to factors outside of the company's financial performance, based on a qualitative analysis of the company and its addressable market.<blockquote>c)根据对公司及其目标市场的定性分析，由于公司财务业绩以外的因素，存在增长显着放缓的风险。</blockquote> If the correct answer is A, this is a great investment. If the logic feels compelling enough you should buy now and enjoy your 20% return over the years. I am going to focus on the other two scenarios, where we need to think about whether the business itself is actually in trouble.<blockquote>如果正确答案是A，这是一项伟大的投资。如果逻辑足够令人信服，您应该现在购买并享受多年来20%的回报。我将重点讨论另外两种情况，在这两种情况下，我们需要考虑企业本身是否真的陷入了困境。</blockquote> 2021 Financial Performance<blockquote>二零二一年财务表现</blockquote> Our previous analysis onPayPal was based on revenue and net income, as per GAAP figures up to 2020. Here I am going to look at the results of the first three quarters of 2021 to see if the results are disappointing.<blockquote>我们之前对PayPal的分析是基于截至2020年的GAAP数据的收入和净利润。这里我要看看2021年前三季度的业绩，看看业绩是否令人失望。</blockquote> First off, we have revenue growth. Indeed, quarter on quarter it doesn't look great, but this is not uncommon inPayPal's history of seasonality. If you look at the chart below, you can see that revenue grows the most in the fourth quarter, always drops in the first (QoQ), and has mixed results from the first to the third. Also, to continue on the 17.9% growth trend, revenue in the fourth quarter would only have to be %6.65 billion less than 8% higher than in the third quarter.<blockquote>首先，我们有收入增长。事实上，环比来看，情况并不乐观，但这在PayPal的季节性历史中并不罕见。如果你看下图，你可以看到第四季度收入增长最多，第一季度（环比）总是下降，并且从第一季度到第三季度的结果好坏参半。此外，要继续保持17.9%的增长趋势，第四季度的收入只需达到66.5亿美元，比第三季度增长不到8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fba8cbaa13348012cc020a72a4ecd1c\" tg-width=\"283\" tg-height=\"170\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。</blockquote> It appears that all is good with revenue growth so far and 2021 looks to deliver once again on the near 20% revenue growth figure. Let's take a look at earnings. So far in the first 3 quarters of 2021, earnings have been, just as in 2020, much higher than the previous trend of 13.5% of revenue. So far, earnings are between 17.5 and 19% of revenue, with an average of 18.3%. It is true that this was 19.6% in 2020, but it also means that we can no longer reasonably consider 2020 an anomaly in that respect.<blockquote>到目前为止，收入增长似乎一切顺利，2021年有望再次实现近20%的收入增长。我们来看看收益。到目前为止，2021年前3个季度的盈利与2020年一样，远高于之前占收入13.5%的趋势。到目前为止，盈利占收入的17.5%至19%之间，平均为18.3%。诚然，2020年这一比例为19.6%，但这也意味着我们不能再合理地认为2020年在这方面是一个异常现象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65fdec19cf0bd680067fed0f3ac34f92\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"290\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。2021年的数字是基于前3个季度的估计。</blockquote> Looking at these figures, the only thing that could worry investors is year-on-year growth rates. If you look at the table below you can see the growth rates of revenue and earnings for&nbsp;Q3 2021, YTD or YoY and with the 1-year growth rate or the 2-year CAGR.<blockquote>从这些数字来看，投资者唯一可能担心的是同比增长率。如果您查看下表，您可以看到2021年第三季度、年初至今或同比的收入和收益增长率以及1年增长率或2年CAGR。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c30583b007f9682b8b5c78496897f61d\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"145\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。</blockquote> This gives a clue of what might be the problem, as year-on-year growth rates in the third quarter look significantly worse than average, especially in earnings growth. However, if you take into account that 2020 Q3 was an exceptionally good quarter, it seems likePayPal is being punished for how good results were in 2020. If you look at the 2-year growth, results seem great, especially in earnings (it is also true that Q3 2019 was exceptionally bad, but one argument is as valid as the other).<blockquote>这为问题可能出在哪里提供了线索，因为第三季度的同比增长率看起来明显低于平均水平，尤其是在盈利增长方面。然而，如果你考虑到2020年第三季度是一个非常好的季度，那么PayPal似乎因2020年的良好业绩而受到惩罚。如果你看看两年的增长，结果似乎很好，尤其是在盈利方面（2019年第三季度确实异常糟糕，但一个论点和另一个一样有效）。</blockquote> To illustrate this point, imagine that net income had been lower in 2020. The chart below contains the same figures as the one before, except that 2020 net income has been arbitrarily reduced to fit a more growing pattern.<blockquote>为了说明这一点，想象一下2020年净利润较低。下图包含与上一张相同的数字，只是2020年净利润被任意减少以适应更增长的模式。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b14c61672e1db2d56752a6a07d858b3\" tg-width=\"483\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. *The figure from 2014 has been removed and the net income figure from 2020 has been reduced to illustrate the point explained above. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。*二零一四年的数字已删除，而二零二零年的净收入数字已减少，以说明上文所解释的要点。2021年的数字是基于前3个季度的估计。</blockquote> The result would be a much more promising-looking trend altogether. When taking short-term growth figures into account when valuing a company one should wonder if they are punishing bad results or actually punishing good results. All considered it doesn't seem like there is a reasonable cause in the observed financial performance ofPayPal that should make you think prospects are worse than they were 9 months ago.<blockquote>结果将是一个看起来更有希望的趋势。当在评估一家公司时考虑短期增长数据时，人们应该怀疑他们是在惩罚糟糕的结果还是实际上在惩罚好的结果。总的来说，观察到的PayPal财务表现似乎没有合理的原因让您认为前景比9个月前更糟糕。</blockquote> Is market growth a concern?<blockquote>市场增长令人担忧吗？</blockquote> With that said, the only other possible explanation is that, indeed, there are external factors that will prevent&nbsp;PayPal from expanding at the previously perceived rate. The stock was recently&nbsp;downgraded by Bernstein, claiming \"market share growth concerns\". The stock has slid over 30% since it reached an ATH at $300 makingPayPal's valuation that much more attractive. But how does this weigh against concerns over market growth?<blockquote>话虽如此，唯一其他可能的解释是，确实有外部因素会阻止PayPal以之前认为的速度扩张。该股最近被伯恩斯坦下调评级，声称“市场份额增长担忧”。自达到300美元的ATH以来，该股已下跌超过30%，这使得PayPal的估值更具吸引力。但这如何抵消对市场增长的担忧呢？</blockquote> \"Fintech\" is no longer a novel concept, and in the last few years, we have seen hundreds if not thousands of companies come out with similar versions of whatPayPal offers. To say the market is saturated, might even be an understatement, butPayPal remains the king of the hill.<blockquote>“金融科技”不再是一个新颖的概念，在过去几年中，我们已经看到数百家甚至数千家公司推出了PayPal提供的类似版本。说市场已经饱和甚至可能是一种保守的说法，但PayPal仍然是山中之王。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/462ce82e5652c8762836c4ef98dcdee5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: datanyze.com<blockquote>资料来源：datanyze.com</blockquote> In terms of Payment Processing Software,PayPal has over 50% of the market, and I say that because Braintree, which takes the fifth position, is also owned byPayPal. The problemPayPal faces though, isn't coming from the hundreds of startups and newly IPO'd companies, but by the large players which we also see on his list.<blockquote>在支付处理软件方面，PayPal拥有超过50%的市场份额，我这么说是因为排名第五的Braintree也归PayPal所有。然而，PayPal面临的问题并不是来自数百家初创公司和新上市的公司，而是来自我们在他的名单上也看到的大公司。</blockquote> This includes AmazonPay, Shopify Inc.'s (SHOP) ShopPay and even Google Pay. Arguably, some of these services have an advantage, in that their payment offerings complement other services. Shopify, for example, incentivizes its users and merchants to use its payment processing platforms, and Google has the advantage of being deeply embedded in a lot of the things we do.<blockquote>这包括AmazonPay、Shopify Inc.(SHOP)的ShopPay甚至Google Pay。可以说，其中一些服务具有优势，因为它们的支付产品补充了其他服务。例如，Shopify激励其用户和商家使用其支付处理平台，而谷歌的优势在于深入参与我们所做的许多事情。</blockquote> In this regard, Shopify and Amazon, for example, have a big advantage, in that they control where much of the money online is spent and can use this to their advantage. However, the payment system is not just limited to eCommerce.PayPal has a presence in many other areas, such as international transfers/transactions and physical payments.PayPal can be used as a bank, and there are also advantages to being a complete financial service focused company, just like there are advantages to having an ecosystem of buyers and sellers on your platform.<blockquote>例如，在这方面，Shopify和亚马逊有很大的优势，因为他们控制着大部分在线资金的花费，并可以利用这一点。然而，支付系统不仅仅局限于电子商务。PayPal在许多其他领域都有业务，如国际转账/交易和实物支付。PayPal可以用作银行，作为一家专注于完整金融服务的公司也有优势，就像在你的平台上拥有买家和卖家的生态系统也有优势一样。</blockquote> Yes, the market is saturated, and growth will become a challenge, but I still believe thatPayPal can succeed long-term and I'll explain why.<blockquote>是的，市场已经饱和，增长将成为一个挑战，但我仍然相信PayPal可以长期成功，我会解释原因。</blockquote> Two more reasons I will hold on toPayPal<blockquote>还有两个我会坚持下去的理由PayPal</blockquote> My analysis continues to support thatPayPal is on track to deliver the growth and returns I expected weeks ago. In this regard,PayPal offers growth at a reasonable price. It is a profitable and well-established company that is going nowhere.<blockquote>我的分析继续支持PayPal有望实现我几周前预期的增长和回报。在这方面，PayPal以合理的价格提供增长。这是一家盈利且信誉良好的公司，但却一事无成。</blockquote> More specifically though, two factors make me especially bullish onPayPal; Venmo and the power of its Balance Sheet.<blockquote>更具体地说，有两个因素让我特别看好PayPal；Venmo及其资产负债表的力量。</blockquote> Starting with Venmo, this is perhaps the biggest reason why I thinkPayPal still holds plenty of value and growth potential. Venmo is one of the most popular payment Apps in the United States. In 2020 over&nbsp;$159 billion in transactions&nbsp;were processed through Venmo in 2020, and the App is on track to deliver $900 million in revenues in 2021 according to the latest earnings call.<blockquote>从Venmo开始，这也许是我认为PayPal仍然拥有巨大价值和增长潜力的最大原因。Venmo是美国最受欢迎的支付应用之一。根据最新的收益看涨期权，2020年通过Venmo处理了超过1590亿美元的交易，该应用程序有望在2021年实现9亿美元的收入。</blockquote> But Venmo is barely scratching the surface of what it can achieve, both in terms of growth and monetization. When it comes to the latter, we can see that Venmo can still come a long way in terms of monetization if we compare it to Square Inc.'s (SQ) CashApp.According to estimates, CashApp produced $54 per user in 2020, while Venmo only made $12 from each active user. There are slight differences in transaction costs, but most of this comes from the fact that CashApp is used more for cryptocurrency transactions. This is something Venmo can easily replicate.<blockquote>但无论是在增长还是货币化方面，Venmo都只是触及了其所能实现的表面。谈到后者，如果我们将Venmo与Square Inc.(SQ)的CashApp进行比较，我们可以看到Venmo在货币化方面仍有很长的路要走。据估计，CashApp在2020年为每个用户带来了54美元的收入，而Venmo仅从每个活跃用户身上获得了12美元的收入。交易成本略有差异，但这大部分来自于CashApp更多地用于加密货币交易。这是Venmo可以轻松复制的。</blockquote> In terms of growth though, Venmo can go much farther. Originally, Venmo was conceived as a peer-to-peer payment system, but this is quickly moving to businesses too. Amazon.com (AMZN)&nbsp;will be accepting Venmo payments&nbsp;starting in 2022, and I believe this will see significant success.<blockquote>不过，就增长而言，Venmo可以走得更远。最初，Venmo被认为是一个点对点支付系统，但这也很快转移到企业。亚马逊(AMZN)将从2022年开始接受Venmo支付，我相信这将取得巨大成功。</blockquote> Venmo has a place in the mobile phones of 65 million people, and this is somethingPayPal can leverage to its advantage moving forward.<blockquote>Venmo在6500万人的手机中占有一席之地，这是PayPal可以利用的优势。</blockquote> The other big reason I will continue to holdPayPal is its incredible Balance Sheet, and all the growth opportunities this opens.PayPal has $13.29 billion in cash and negative net debt. It has a much stronger balance sheet than its most established peers, such as Mastercard Corporation (MA). It's now time forPayPal to put this money to good use to expand its platform, especially internationally, something we already got a taste of in the last investor presentation.<blockquote>我将继续持有PayPal的另一个重要原因是其令人难以置信的资产负债表，以及由此带来的所有增长机会。PayPal拥有132.9亿美元现金和负净债务。它的资产负债表比万事达卡公司（MA）等最成熟的同行要强大得多。现在是PayPal充分利用这笔资金来扩展其平台的时候了，特别是在国际上，我们已经在上次投资者演示中尝到了这一点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3484de41ef449aa085877ee9374fa00\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"648\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Investor Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：投资者介绍</blockquote> On September 7th, it was announced thatPayPal was acquiring Paidy, which uses artificial intelligence to find out the creditworthiness of its users and offers payment instalment plans. This is just one example of howPayPal can enter new markets and expand its footprint. Much like I argued before with Shopify,PayPal can now leverage Paidy to also push its other payment platforms into the Japanese market. I am very excited to see what other acquisitionsPayPal will make.<blockquote>9月7日，PayPal宣布收购Paidy，该公司使用人工智能来了解用户的信用度，并提供支付分期付款计划。这只是PayPal如何进入新市场并扩大其足迹的一个例子。就像我之前与Shopify争论的那样，PayPal现在可以利用Paidy将其其他支付平台推向日本市场。我很高兴看到PayPal还会进行哪些其他收购。</blockquote> Takeaway<blockquote>外卖</blockquote> In conclusion, and referring back to the thesis summary, I see no material reason why shares ofPayPal should continue to depreciate. Exogenous factors haven't changed, competition has always been tough and the company is still on track to deliver on its medium and long term growth targets.PayPal offers investors growth at a reasonable price, and that is hard to come by these days.<blockquote>总之，回到论文摘要，我认为PayPal的股价没有理由继续贬值。外生因素没有改变，竞争一直很激烈，公司仍有望实现中长期增长目标。PayPal以合理的价格为投资者提供增长，而这在当今很难实现。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4470923-paypal-time-to-go-all-in\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4470923-paypal-time-to-go-all-in","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158506816","content_text":"Summary\n\nPayPal has fallen over 30% since its ATH due to poor guidance and increased competition concerns.\nI argue that PayPal is still on track to achieve its long-term goals, and competition, albeit fierce, is manageable.\nThe potential of Venmo and PayPal's future acquisition are what keep me coming back for more.\n\nSouth_agency/E+ via Getty Images\nThesis Summary\nSeven months ago, we analyzedPayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) and concluded that our target price of $425 for 2025 made the $266 purchase give a compound return of 10.5% per year. At the time, we were forecasting revenue, earnings, and PE ratios to calculate the target price.\nAlthough our forecasted PE ratio based on its relation to Earnings suggested the price was a little high for that point in time, it seemed that the market was granting the company a higher valuation given its remarkably consistent track record.\nIt took very little smoothing to set historical revenue growth at a consistent 17.9% per year, and as for the earnings margin, net income was very close to 13.55% of revenue almost every year. The only two exceptions were one negative, in 2014, and one positive, in 2020, where the margin was 19.6%.\nAs the year 2021 has progressed,PayPal has dropped significantly, all the way down to $200. At this price, the $425 target for 2025 would give you a compound annual return of 20.1%. I can think of three possible explanations for this collapse:\na) The price was ahead of its time, and 2020 over performance got investors thinking growth had accelerated and that the price would go higher than we were forecasting. Ultimately, an investment relying on growth that has not yet materialized requires higher returns, and if the company is growing 18%, the investor wants to make at least 18% on their investment.\nb) There is a perceived risk of earnings growth slowing down significantly based on the company's performance after looking at financial reports from the first three quarters of 2021.\nc) There is a perceived risk of growth slowing down significantly due to factors outside of the company's financial performance, based on a qualitative analysis of the company and its addressable market.\nIf the correct answer is A, this is a great investment. If the logic feels compelling enough you should buy now and enjoy your 20% return over the years. I am going to focus on the other two scenarios, where we need to think about whether the business itself is actually in trouble.\n2021 Financial Performance\nOur previous analysis onPayPal was based on revenue and net income, as per GAAP figures up to 2020. Here I am going to look at the results of the first three quarters of 2021 to see if the results are disappointing.\nFirst off, we have revenue growth. Indeed, quarter on quarter it doesn't look great, but this is not uncommon inPayPal's history of seasonality. If you look at the chart below, you can see that revenue grows the most in the fourth quarter, always drops in the first (QoQ), and has mixed results from the first to the third. Also, to continue on the 17.9% growth trend, revenue in the fourth quarter would only have to be %6.65 billion less than 8% higher than in the third quarter.\nSource: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions.\nIt appears that all is good with revenue growth so far and 2021 looks to deliver once again on the near 20% revenue growth figure. Let's take a look at earnings. So far in the first 3 quarters of 2021, earnings have been, just as in 2020, much higher than the previous trend of 13.5% of revenue. So far, earnings are between 17.5 and 19% of revenue, with an average of 18.3%. It is true that this was 19.6% in 2020, but it also means that we can no longer reasonably consider 2020 an anomaly in that respect.\nSource: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.\nLooking at these figures, the only thing that could worry investors is year-on-year growth rates. If you look at the table below you can see the growth rates of revenue and earnings for Q3 2021, YTD or YoY and with the 1-year growth rate or the 2-year CAGR.\nSource: Author's work based on financial reports.\nThis gives a clue of what might be the problem, as year-on-year growth rates in the third quarter look significantly worse than average, especially in earnings growth. However, if you take into account that 2020 Q3 was an exceptionally good quarter, it seems likePayPal is being punished for how good results were in 2020. If you look at the 2-year growth, results seem great, especially in earnings (it is also true that Q3 2019 was exceptionally bad, but one argument is as valid as the other).\nTo illustrate this point, imagine that net income had been lower in 2020. The chart below contains the same figures as the one before, except that 2020 net income has been arbitrarily reduced to fit a more growing pattern.\nSource: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. *The figure from 2014 has been removed and the net income figure from 2020 has been reduced to illustrate the point explained above. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.\nThe result would be a much more promising-looking trend altogether. When taking short-term growth figures into account when valuing a company one should wonder if they are punishing bad results or actually punishing good results. All considered it doesn't seem like there is a reasonable cause in the observed financial performance ofPayPal that should make you think prospects are worse than they were 9 months ago.\nIs market growth a concern?\nWith that said, the only other possible explanation is that, indeed, there are external factors that will prevent PayPal from expanding at the previously perceived rate. The stock was recently downgraded by Bernstein, claiming \"market share growth concerns\". The stock has slid over 30% since it reached an ATH at $300 makingPayPal's valuation that much more attractive. But how does this weigh against concerns over market growth?\n\"Fintech\" is no longer a novel concept, and in the last few years, we have seen hundreds if not thousands of companies come out with similar versions of whatPayPal offers. To say the market is saturated, might even be an understatement, butPayPal remains the king of the hill.\nSource: datanyze.com\nIn terms of Payment Processing Software,PayPal has over 50% of the market, and I say that because Braintree, which takes the fifth position, is also owned byPayPal. The problemPayPal faces though, isn't coming from the hundreds of startups and newly IPO'd companies, but by the large players which we also see on his list.\nThis includes AmazonPay, Shopify Inc.'s (SHOP) ShopPay and even Google Pay. Arguably, some of these services have an advantage, in that their payment offerings complement other services. Shopify, for example, incentivizes its users and merchants to use its payment processing platforms, and Google has the advantage of being deeply embedded in a lot of the things we do.\nIn this regard, Shopify and Amazon, for example, have a big advantage, in that they control where much of the money online is spent and can use this to their advantage. However, the payment system is not just limited to eCommerce.PayPal has a presence in many other areas, such as international transfers/transactions and physical payments.PayPal can be used as a bank, and there are also advantages to being a complete financial service focused company, just like there are advantages to having an ecosystem of buyers and sellers on your platform.\nYes, the market is saturated, and growth will become a challenge, but I still believe thatPayPal can succeed long-term and I'll explain why.\nTwo more reasons I will hold on toPayPal\nMy analysis continues to support thatPayPal is on track to deliver the growth and returns I expected weeks ago. In this regard,PayPal offers growth at a reasonable price. It is a profitable and well-established company that is going nowhere.\nMore specifically though, two factors make me especially bullish onPayPal; Venmo and the power of its Balance Sheet.\nStarting with Venmo, this is perhaps the biggest reason why I thinkPayPal still holds plenty of value and growth potential. Venmo is one of the most popular payment Apps in the United States. In 2020 over $159 billion in transactions were processed through Venmo in 2020, and the App is on track to deliver $900 million in revenues in 2021 according to the latest earnings call.\nBut Venmo is barely scratching the surface of what it can achieve, both in terms of growth and monetization. When it comes to the latter, we can see that Venmo can still come a long way in terms of monetization if we compare it to Square Inc.'s (SQ) CashApp.According to estimates, CashApp produced $54 per user in 2020, while Venmo only made $12 from each active user. There are slight differences in transaction costs, but most of this comes from the fact that CashApp is used more for cryptocurrency transactions. This is something Venmo can easily replicate.\nIn terms of growth though, Venmo can go much farther. Originally, Venmo was conceived as a peer-to-peer payment system, but this is quickly moving to businesses too. Amazon.com (AMZN) will be accepting Venmo payments starting in 2022, and I believe this will see significant success.\nVenmo has a place in the mobile phones of 65 million people, and this is somethingPayPal can leverage to its advantage moving forward.\nThe other big reason I will continue to holdPayPal is its incredible Balance Sheet, and all the growth opportunities this opens.PayPal has $13.29 billion in cash and negative net debt. It has a much stronger balance sheet than its most established peers, such as Mastercard Corporation (MA). It's now time forPayPal to put this money to good use to expand its platform, especially internationally, something we already got a taste of in the last investor presentation.\nSource: Investor Presentation\nOn September 7th, it was announced thatPayPal was acquiring Paidy, which uses artificial intelligence to find out the creditworthiness of its users and offers payment instalment plans. This is just one example of howPayPal can enter new markets and expand its footprint. Much like I argued before with Shopify,PayPal can now leverage Paidy to also push its other payment platforms into the Japanese market. I am very excited to see what other acquisitionsPayPal will make.\nTakeaway\nIn conclusion, and referring back to the thesis summary, I see no material reason why shares ofPayPal should continue to depreciate. Exogenous factors haven't changed, competition has always been tough and the company is still on track to deliver on its medium and long term growth targets.PayPal offers investors growth at a reasonable price, and that is hard to come by these days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":872545971,"gmtCreate":1637552522019,"gmtModify":1637552522131,"author":{"id":"4097720712211120","authorId":"4097720712211120","name":"TradeMore","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/976c10f5e71e9a3b002205015f764d44","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4097720712211120","authorIdStr":"4097720712211120"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872545971","repostId":1158506816,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158506816","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637550842,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158506816?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-22 11:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal: Time To Go All In<blockquote>PayPal：是时候全力以赴了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158506816","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPayPal has fallen over 30% since its ATH due to poor guidance and increased competition con","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>PayPal has fallen over 30% since its ATH due to poor guidance and increased competition concerns.</li> <li>I argue that PayPal is still on track to achieve its long-term goals, and competition, albeit fierce, is manageable.</li> <li>The potential of Venmo and PayPal's future acquisition are what keep me coming back for more.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71b7d55858c35eda92a04deae062ef8b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">South_agency/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>由于指导不力和竞争担忧加剧，PayPal自ATH以来股价已下跌超过30%。</li><li>我认为PayPal仍在实现其长期目标的轨道上，竞争尽管激烈，但是可控的。</li><li>Venmo和PayPal未来收购的潜力让我不断回来购买更多。</li></ul>South_agency/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> Thesis Summary<blockquote>论文摘要</blockquote> Seven months ago, we analyzedPayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) and concluded that our target price of $425 for 2025 made the $266 purchase give a compound return of 10.5% per year. At the time, we were forecasting revenue, earnings, and PE ratios to calculate the target price.<blockquote>七个月前，我们分析了PayPal Holdings Inc.(PYPL)，得出的结论是，我们2025年425美元的目标价使得266美元的收购每年复合回报率为10.5%。当时，我们正在预测收入、盈利和市盈率来计算目标价。</blockquote> Although our forecasted PE ratio based on its relation to Earnings suggested the price was a little high for that point in time, it seemed that the market was granting the company a higher valuation given its remarkably consistent track record.<blockquote>尽管我们根据其与收益的关系预测市盈率表明当时的价格有点高，但鉴于该公司非常一致的业绩记录，市场似乎给予了该公司更高的估值。</blockquote> It took very little smoothing to set historical revenue growth at a consistent 17.9% per year, and as for the earnings margin, net income was very close to 13.55% of revenue almost every year. The only two exceptions were one negative, in 2014, and one positive, in 2020, where the margin was 19.6%.<blockquote>几乎不需要任何平滑就将历史收入增长率设定在每年17.9%，至于利润率，净利润几乎每年都非常接近收入的13.55%。仅有的两个例外是2014年的负利率和2020年的正利率，利润率为19.6%。</blockquote> As the year 2021 has progressed,PayPal has dropped significantly, all the way down to $200. At this price, the $425 target for 2025 would give you a compound annual return of 20.1%. I can think of three possible explanations for this collapse:<blockquote>随着2021年的进展，PayPal大幅下跌，一路跌至200美元。按照这个价格，2025年425美元的目标将为您带来20.1%的复合年回报率。对于这种崩溃，我可以想到三种可能的解释：</blockquote> a) The price was ahead of its time, and 2020 over performance got investors thinking growth had accelerated and that the price would go higher than we were forecasting. Ultimately, an investment relying on growth that has not yet materialized requires higher returns, and if the company is growing 18%, the investor wants to make at least 18% on their investment.<blockquote>a)价格领先于时代，2020年的表现让投资者认为增长已经加速，价格将高于我们的预期。最终，依赖尚未实现的增长的投资需要更高的回报，如果公司增长18%，投资者希望从投资中获得至少18%的回报。</blockquote> b) There is a perceived risk of earnings growth slowing down significantly based on the company's performance after looking at financial reports from the first three quarters of 2021.<blockquote>b)在查看2021年前三季度的财务报告后，根据公司的业绩，认为盈利增长存在大幅放缓的风险。</blockquote> c) There is a perceived risk of growth slowing down significantly due to factors outside of the company's financial performance, based on a qualitative analysis of the company and its addressable market.<blockquote>c)根据对公司及其目标市场的定性分析，由于公司财务业绩以外的因素，存在增长显着放缓的风险。</blockquote> If the correct answer is A, this is a great investment. If the logic feels compelling enough you should buy now and enjoy your 20% return over the years. I am going to focus on the other two scenarios, where we need to think about whether the business itself is actually in trouble.<blockquote>如果正确答案是A，这是一项伟大的投资。如果逻辑足够令人信服，您应该现在购买并享受多年来20%的回报。我将重点讨论另外两种情况，在这两种情况下，我们需要考虑企业本身是否真的陷入了困境。</blockquote> 2021 Financial Performance<blockquote>二零二一年财务表现</blockquote> Our previous analysis onPayPal was based on revenue and net income, as per GAAP figures up to 2020. Here I am going to look at the results of the first three quarters of 2021 to see if the results are disappointing.<blockquote>我们之前对PayPal的分析是基于截至2020年的GAAP数据的收入和净利润。这里我要看看2021年前三季度的业绩，看看业绩是否令人失望。</blockquote> First off, we have revenue growth. Indeed, quarter on quarter it doesn't look great, but this is not uncommon inPayPal's history of seasonality. If you look at the chart below, you can see that revenue grows the most in the fourth quarter, always drops in the first (QoQ), and has mixed results from the first to the third. Also, to continue on the 17.9% growth trend, revenue in the fourth quarter would only have to be %6.65 billion less than 8% higher than in the third quarter.<blockquote>首先，我们有收入增长。事实上，环比来看，情况并不乐观，但这在PayPal的季节性历史中并不罕见。如果你看下图，你可以看到第四季度收入增长最多，第一季度（环比）总是下降，并且从第一季度到第三季度的结果好坏参半。此外，要继续保持17.9%的增长趋势，第四季度的收入只需达到66.5亿美元，比第三季度增长不到8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fba8cbaa13348012cc020a72a4ecd1c\" tg-width=\"283\" tg-height=\"170\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。</blockquote> It appears that all is good with revenue growth so far and 2021 looks to deliver once again on the near 20% revenue growth figure. Let's take a look at earnings. So far in the first 3 quarters of 2021, earnings have been, just as in 2020, much higher than the previous trend of 13.5% of revenue. So far, earnings are between 17.5 and 19% of revenue, with an average of 18.3%. It is true that this was 19.6% in 2020, but it also means that we can no longer reasonably consider 2020 an anomaly in that respect.<blockquote>到目前为止，收入增长似乎一切顺利，2021年有望再次实现近20%的收入增长。我们来看看收益。到目前为止，2021年前3个季度的盈利与2020年一样，远高于之前占收入13.5%的趋势。到目前为止，盈利占收入的17.5%至19%之间，平均为18.3%。诚然，2020年这一比例为19.6%，但这也意味着我们不能再合理地认为2020年在这方面是一个异常现象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65fdec19cf0bd680067fed0f3ac34f92\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"290\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。2021年的数字是基于前3个季度的估计。</blockquote> Looking at these figures, the only thing that could worry investors is year-on-year growth rates. If you look at the table below you can see the growth rates of revenue and earnings for&nbsp;Q3 2021, YTD or YoY and with the 1-year growth rate or the 2-year CAGR.<blockquote>从这些数字来看，投资者唯一可能担心的是同比增长率。如果您查看下表，您可以看到2021年第三季度、年初至今或同比的收入和收益增长率以及1年增长率或2年CAGR。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c30583b007f9682b8b5c78496897f61d\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"145\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。</blockquote> This gives a clue of what might be the problem, as year-on-year growth rates in the third quarter look significantly worse than average, especially in earnings growth. However, if you take into account that 2020 Q3 was an exceptionally good quarter, it seems likePayPal is being punished for how good results were in 2020. If you look at the 2-year growth, results seem great, especially in earnings (it is also true that Q3 2019 was exceptionally bad, but one argument is as valid as the other).<blockquote>这为问题可能出在哪里提供了线索，因为第三季度的同比增长率看起来明显低于平均水平，尤其是在盈利增长方面。然而，如果你考虑到2020年第三季度是一个非常好的季度，那么PayPal似乎因2020年的良好业绩而受到惩罚。如果你看看两年的增长，结果似乎很好，尤其是在盈利方面（2019年第三季度确实异常糟糕，但一个论点和另一个一样有效）。</blockquote> To illustrate this point, imagine that net income had been lower in 2020. The chart below contains the same figures as the one before, except that 2020 net income has been arbitrarily reduced to fit a more growing pattern.<blockquote>为了说明这一点，想象一下2020年净利润较低。下图包含与上一张相同的数字，只是2020年净利润被任意减少以适应更增长的模式。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b14c61672e1db2d56752a6a07d858b3\" tg-width=\"483\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. *The figure from 2014 has been removed and the net income figure from 2020 has been reduced to illustrate the point explained above. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。*二零一四年的数字已删除，而二零二零年的净收入数字已减少，以说明上文所解释的要点。2021年的数字是基于前3个季度的估计。</blockquote> The result would be a much more promising-looking trend altogether. When taking short-term growth figures into account when valuing a company one should wonder if they are punishing bad results or actually punishing good results. All considered it doesn't seem like there is a reasonable cause in the observed financial performance ofPayPal that should make you think prospects are worse than they were 9 months ago.<blockquote>结果将是一个看起来更有希望的趋势。当在评估一家公司时考虑短期增长数据时，人们应该怀疑他们是在惩罚糟糕的结果还是实际上在惩罚好的结果。总的来说，观察到的PayPal财务表现似乎没有合理的原因让您认为前景比9个月前更糟糕。</blockquote> Is market growth a concern?<blockquote>市场增长令人担忧吗？</blockquote> With that said, the only other possible explanation is that, indeed, there are external factors that will prevent&nbsp;PayPal from expanding at the previously perceived rate. The stock was recently&nbsp;downgraded by Bernstein, claiming \"market share growth concerns\". The stock has slid over 30% since it reached an ATH at $300 makingPayPal's valuation that much more attractive. But how does this weigh against concerns over market growth?<blockquote>话虽如此，唯一其他可能的解释是，确实有外部因素会阻止PayPal以之前认为的速度扩张。该股最近被伯恩斯坦下调评级，声称“市场份额增长担忧”。自达到300美元的ATH以来，该股已下跌超过30%，这使得PayPal的估值更具吸引力。但这如何抵消对市场增长的担忧呢？</blockquote> \"Fintech\" is no longer a novel concept, and in the last few years, we have seen hundreds if not thousands of companies come out with similar versions of whatPayPal offers. To say the market is saturated, might even be an understatement, butPayPal remains the king of the hill.<blockquote>“金融科技”不再是一个新颖的概念，在过去几年中，我们已经看到数百家甚至数千家公司推出了PayPal提供的类似版本。说市场已经饱和甚至可能是一种保守的说法，但PayPal仍然是山中之王。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/462ce82e5652c8762836c4ef98dcdee5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: datanyze.com<blockquote>资料来源：datanyze.com</blockquote> In terms of Payment Processing Software,PayPal has over 50% of the market, and I say that because Braintree, which takes the fifth position, is also owned byPayPal. The problemPayPal faces though, isn't coming from the hundreds of startups and newly IPO'd companies, but by the large players which we also see on his list.<blockquote>在支付处理软件方面，PayPal拥有超过50%的市场份额，我这么说是因为排名第五的Braintree也归PayPal所有。然而，PayPal面临的问题并不是来自数百家初创公司和新上市的公司，而是来自我们在他的名单上也看到的大公司。</blockquote> This includes AmazonPay, Shopify Inc.'s (SHOP) ShopPay and even Google Pay. Arguably, some of these services have an advantage, in that their payment offerings complement other services. Shopify, for example, incentivizes its users and merchants to use its payment processing platforms, and Google has the advantage of being deeply embedded in a lot of the things we do.<blockquote>这包括AmazonPay、Shopify Inc.(SHOP)的ShopPay甚至Google Pay。可以说，其中一些服务具有优势，因为它们的支付产品补充了其他服务。例如，Shopify激励其用户和商家使用其支付处理平台，而谷歌的优势在于深入参与我们所做的许多事情。</blockquote> In this regard, Shopify and Amazon, for example, have a big advantage, in that they control where much of the money online is spent and can use this to their advantage. However, the payment system is not just limited to eCommerce.PayPal has a presence in many other areas, such as international transfers/transactions and physical payments.PayPal can be used as a bank, and there are also advantages to being a complete financial service focused company, just like there are advantages to having an ecosystem of buyers and sellers on your platform.<blockquote>例如，在这方面，Shopify和亚马逊有很大的优势，因为他们控制着大部分在线资金的花费，并可以利用这一点。然而，支付系统不仅仅局限于电子商务。PayPal在许多其他领域都有业务，如国际转账/交易和实物支付。PayPal可以用作银行，作为一家专注于完整金融服务的公司也有优势，就像在你的平台上拥有买家和卖家的生态系统也有优势一样。</blockquote> Yes, the market is saturated, and growth will become a challenge, but I still believe thatPayPal can succeed long-term and I'll explain why.<blockquote>是的，市场已经饱和，增长将成为一个挑战，但我仍然相信PayPal可以长期成功，我会解释原因。</blockquote> Two more reasons I will hold on toPayPal<blockquote>还有两个我会坚持下去的理由PayPal</blockquote> My analysis continues to support thatPayPal is on track to deliver the growth and returns I expected weeks ago. In this regard,PayPal offers growth at a reasonable price. It is a profitable and well-established company that is going nowhere.<blockquote>我的分析继续支持PayPal有望实现我几周前预期的增长和回报。在这方面，PayPal以合理的价格提供增长。这是一家盈利且信誉良好的公司，但却一事无成。</blockquote> More specifically though, two factors make me especially bullish onPayPal; Venmo and the power of its Balance Sheet.<blockquote>更具体地说，有两个因素让我特别看好PayPal；Venmo及其资产负债表的力量。</blockquote> Starting with Venmo, this is perhaps the biggest reason why I thinkPayPal still holds plenty of value and growth potential. Venmo is one of the most popular payment Apps in the United States. In 2020 over&nbsp;$159 billion in transactions&nbsp;were processed through Venmo in 2020, and the App is on track to deliver $900 million in revenues in 2021 according to the latest earnings call.<blockquote>从Venmo开始，这也许是我认为PayPal仍然拥有巨大价值和增长潜力的最大原因。Venmo是美国最受欢迎的支付应用之一。根据最新的收益看涨期权，2020年通过Venmo处理了超过1590亿美元的交易，该应用程序有望在2021年实现9亿美元的收入。</blockquote> But Venmo is barely scratching the surface of what it can achieve, both in terms of growth and monetization. When it comes to the latter, we can see that Venmo can still come a long way in terms of monetization if we compare it to Square Inc.'s (SQ) CashApp.According to estimates, CashApp produced $54 per user in 2020, while Venmo only made $12 from each active user. There are slight differences in transaction costs, but most of this comes from the fact that CashApp is used more for cryptocurrency transactions. This is something Venmo can easily replicate.<blockquote>但无论是在增长还是货币化方面，Venmo都只是触及了其所能实现的表面。谈到后者，如果我们将Venmo与Square Inc.(SQ)的CashApp进行比较，我们可以看到Venmo在货币化方面仍有很长的路要走。据估计，CashApp在2020年为每个用户带来了54美元的收入，而Venmo仅从每个活跃用户身上获得了12美元的收入。交易成本略有差异，但这大部分来自于CashApp更多地用于加密货币交易。这是Venmo可以轻松复制的。</blockquote> In terms of growth though, Venmo can go much farther. Originally, Venmo was conceived as a peer-to-peer payment system, but this is quickly moving to businesses too. Amazon.com (AMZN)&nbsp;will be accepting Venmo payments&nbsp;starting in 2022, and I believe this will see significant success.<blockquote>不过，就增长而言，Venmo可以走得更远。最初，Venmo被认为是一个点对点支付系统，但这也很快转移到企业。亚马逊(AMZN)将从2022年开始接受Venmo支付，我相信这将取得巨大成功。</blockquote> Venmo has a place in the mobile phones of 65 million people, and this is somethingPayPal can leverage to its advantage moving forward.<blockquote>Venmo在6500万人的手机中占有一席之地，这是PayPal可以利用的优势。</blockquote> The other big reason I will continue to holdPayPal is its incredible Balance Sheet, and all the growth opportunities this opens.PayPal has $13.29 billion in cash and negative net debt. It has a much stronger balance sheet than its most established peers, such as Mastercard Corporation (MA). It's now time forPayPal to put this money to good use to expand its platform, especially internationally, something we already got a taste of in the last investor presentation.<blockquote>我将继续持有PayPal的另一个重要原因是其令人难以置信的资产负债表，以及由此带来的所有增长机会。PayPal拥有132.9亿美元现金和负净债务。它的资产负债表比万事达卡公司（MA）等最成熟的同行要强大得多。现在是PayPal充分利用这笔资金来扩展其平台的时候了，特别是在国际上，我们已经在上次投资者演示中尝到了这一点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3484de41ef449aa085877ee9374fa00\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"648\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Investor Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：投资者介绍</blockquote> On September 7th, it was announced thatPayPal was acquiring Paidy, which uses artificial intelligence to find out the creditworthiness of its users and offers payment instalment plans. This is just one example of howPayPal can enter new markets and expand its footprint. Much like I argued before with Shopify,PayPal can now leverage Paidy to also push its other payment platforms into the Japanese market. I am very excited to see what other acquisitionsPayPal will make.<blockquote>9月7日，PayPal宣布收购Paidy，该公司使用人工智能来了解用户的信用度，并提供支付分期付款计划。这只是PayPal如何进入新市场并扩大其足迹的一个例子。就像我之前与Shopify争论的那样，PayPal现在可以利用Paidy将其其他支付平台推向日本市场。我很高兴看到PayPal还会进行哪些其他收购。</blockquote> Takeaway<blockquote>外卖</blockquote> In conclusion, and referring back to the thesis summary, I see no material reason why shares ofPayPal should continue to depreciate. Exogenous factors haven't changed, competition has always been tough and the company is still on track to deliver on its medium and long term growth targets.PayPal offers investors growth at a reasonable price, and that is hard to come by these days.<blockquote>总之，回到论文摘要，我认为PayPal的股价没有理由继续贬值。外生因素没有改变，竞争一直很激烈，公司仍有望实现中长期增长目标。PayPal以合理的价格为投资者提供增长，而这在当今很难实现。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal: Time To Go All In<blockquote>PayPal：是时候全力以赴了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal: Time To Go All In<blockquote>PayPal：是时候全力以赴了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-11-22 11:14\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>PayPal has fallen over 30% since its ATH due to poor guidance and increased competition concerns.</li> <li>I argue that PayPal is still on track to achieve its long-term goals, and competition, albeit fierce, is manageable.</li> <li>The potential of Venmo and PayPal's future acquisition are what keep me coming back for more.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71b7d55858c35eda92a04deae062ef8b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">South_agency/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>由于指导不力和竞争担忧加剧，PayPal自ATH以来股价已下跌超过30%。</li><li>我认为PayPal仍在实现其长期目标的轨道上，竞争尽管激烈，但是可控的。</li><li>Venmo和PayPal未来收购的潜力让我不断回来购买更多。</li></ul>South_agency/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> Thesis Summary<blockquote>论文摘要</blockquote> Seven months ago, we analyzedPayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) and concluded that our target price of $425 for 2025 made the $266 purchase give a compound return of 10.5% per year. At the time, we were forecasting revenue, earnings, and PE ratios to calculate the target price.<blockquote>七个月前，我们分析了PayPal Holdings Inc.(PYPL)，得出的结论是，我们2025年425美元的目标价使得266美元的收购每年复合回报率为10.5%。当时，我们正在预测收入、盈利和市盈率来计算目标价。</blockquote> Although our forecasted PE ratio based on its relation to Earnings suggested the price was a little high for that point in time, it seemed that the market was granting the company a higher valuation given its remarkably consistent track record.<blockquote>尽管我们根据其与收益的关系预测市盈率表明当时的价格有点高，但鉴于该公司非常一致的业绩记录，市场似乎给予了该公司更高的估值。</blockquote> It took very little smoothing to set historical revenue growth at a consistent 17.9% per year, and as for the earnings margin, net income was very close to 13.55% of revenue almost every year. The only two exceptions were one negative, in 2014, and one positive, in 2020, where the margin was 19.6%.<blockquote>几乎不需要任何平滑就将历史收入增长率设定在每年17.9%，至于利润率，净利润几乎每年都非常接近收入的13.55%。仅有的两个例外是2014年的负利率和2020年的正利率，利润率为19.6%。</blockquote> As the year 2021 has progressed,PayPal has dropped significantly, all the way down to $200. At this price, the $425 target for 2025 would give you a compound annual return of 20.1%. I can think of three possible explanations for this collapse:<blockquote>随着2021年的进展，PayPal大幅下跌，一路跌至200美元。按照这个价格，2025年425美元的目标将为您带来20.1%的复合年回报率。对于这种崩溃，我可以想到三种可能的解释：</blockquote> a) The price was ahead of its time, and 2020 over performance got investors thinking growth had accelerated and that the price would go higher than we were forecasting. Ultimately, an investment relying on growth that has not yet materialized requires higher returns, and if the company is growing 18%, the investor wants to make at least 18% on their investment.<blockquote>a)价格领先于时代，2020年的表现让投资者认为增长已经加速，价格将高于我们的预期。最终，依赖尚未实现的增长的投资需要更高的回报，如果公司增长18%，投资者希望从投资中获得至少18%的回报。</blockquote> b) There is a perceived risk of earnings growth slowing down significantly based on the company's performance after looking at financial reports from the first three quarters of 2021.<blockquote>b)在查看2021年前三季度的财务报告后，根据公司的业绩，认为盈利增长存在大幅放缓的风险。</blockquote> c) There is a perceived risk of growth slowing down significantly due to factors outside of the company's financial performance, based on a qualitative analysis of the company and its addressable market.<blockquote>c)根据对公司及其目标市场的定性分析，由于公司财务业绩以外的因素，存在增长显着放缓的风险。</blockquote> If the correct answer is A, this is a great investment. If the logic feels compelling enough you should buy now and enjoy your 20% return over the years. I am going to focus on the other two scenarios, where we need to think about whether the business itself is actually in trouble.<blockquote>如果正确答案是A，这是一项伟大的投资。如果逻辑足够令人信服，您应该现在购买并享受多年来20%的回报。我将重点讨论另外两种情况，在这两种情况下，我们需要考虑企业本身是否真的陷入了困境。</blockquote> 2021 Financial Performance<blockquote>二零二一年财务表现</blockquote> Our previous analysis onPayPal was based on revenue and net income, as per GAAP figures up to 2020. Here I am going to look at the results of the first three quarters of 2021 to see if the results are disappointing.<blockquote>我们之前对PayPal的分析是基于截至2020年的GAAP数据的收入和净利润。这里我要看看2021年前三季度的业绩，看看业绩是否令人失望。</blockquote> First off, we have revenue growth. Indeed, quarter on quarter it doesn't look great, but this is not uncommon inPayPal's history of seasonality. If you look at the chart below, you can see that revenue grows the most in the fourth quarter, always drops in the first (QoQ), and has mixed results from the first to the third. Also, to continue on the 17.9% growth trend, revenue in the fourth quarter would only have to be %6.65 billion less than 8% higher than in the third quarter.<blockquote>首先，我们有收入增长。事实上，环比来看，情况并不乐观，但这在PayPal的季节性历史中并不罕见。如果你看下图，你可以看到第四季度收入增长最多，第一季度（环比）总是下降，并且从第一季度到第三季度的结果好坏参半。此外，要继续保持17.9%的增长趋势，第四季度的收入只需达到66.5亿美元，比第三季度增长不到8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fba8cbaa13348012cc020a72a4ecd1c\" tg-width=\"283\" tg-height=\"170\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。</blockquote> It appears that all is good with revenue growth so far and 2021 looks to deliver once again on the near 20% revenue growth figure. Let's take a look at earnings. So far in the first 3 quarters of 2021, earnings have been, just as in 2020, much higher than the previous trend of 13.5% of revenue. So far, earnings are between 17.5 and 19% of revenue, with an average of 18.3%. It is true that this was 19.6% in 2020, but it also means that we can no longer reasonably consider 2020 an anomaly in that respect.<blockquote>到目前为止，收入增长似乎一切顺利，2021年有望再次实现近20%的收入增长。我们来看看收益。到目前为止，2021年前3个季度的盈利与2020年一样，远高于之前占收入13.5%的趋势。到目前为止，盈利占收入的17.5%至19%之间，平均为18.3%。诚然，2020年这一比例为19.6%，但这也意味着我们不能再合理地认为2020年在这方面是一个异常现象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65fdec19cf0bd680067fed0f3ac34f92\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"290\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。2021年的数字是基于前3个季度的估计。</blockquote> Looking at these figures, the only thing that could worry investors is year-on-year growth rates. If you look at the table below you can see the growth rates of revenue and earnings for&nbsp;Q3 2021, YTD or YoY and with the 1-year growth rate or the 2-year CAGR.<blockquote>从这些数字来看，投资者唯一可能担心的是同比增长率。如果您查看下表，您可以看到2021年第三季度、年初至今或同比的收入和收益增长率以及1年增长率或2年CAGR。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c30583b007f9682b8b5c78496897f61d\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"145\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。</blockquote> This gives a clue of what might be the problem, as year-on-year growth rates in the third quarter look significantly worse than average, especially in earnings growth. However, if you take into account that 2020 Q3 was an exceptionally good quarter, it seems likePayPal is being punished for how good results were in 2020. If you look at the 2-year growth, results seem great, especially in earnings (it is also true that Q3 2019 was exceptionally bad, but one argument is as valid as the other).<blockquote>这为问题可能出在哪里提供了线索，因为第三季度的同比增长率看起来明显低于平均水平，尤其是在盈利增长方面。然而，如果你考虑到2020年第三季度是一个非常好的季度，那么PayPal似乎因2020年的良好业绩而受到惩罚。如果你看看两年的增长，结果似乎很好，尤其是在盈利方面（2019年第三季度确实异常糟糕，但一个论点和另一个一样有效）。</blockquote> To illustrate this point, imagine that net income had been lower in 2020. The chart below contains the same figures as the one before, except that 2020 net income has been arbitrarily reduced to fit a more growing pattern.<blockquote>为了说明这一点，想象一下2020年净利润较低。下图包含与上一张相同的数字，只是2020年净利润被任意减少以适应更增长的模式。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b14c61672e1db2d56752a6a07d858b3\" tg-width=\"483\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. *The figure from 2014 has been removed and the net income figure from 2020 has been reduced to illustrate the point explained above. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。*二零一四年的数字已删除，而二零二零年的净收入数字已减少，以说明上文所解释的要点。2021年的数字是基于前3个季度的估计。</blockquote> The result would be a much more promising-looking trend altogether. When taking short-term growth figures into account when valuing a company one should wonder if they are punishing bad results or actually punishing good results. All considered it doesn't seem like there is a reasonable cause in the observed financial performance ofPayPal that should make you think prospects are worse than they were 9 months ago.<blockquote>结果将是一个看起来更有希望的趋势。当在评估一家公司时考虑短期增长数据时，人们应该怀疑他们是在惩罚糟糕的结果还是实际上在惩罚好的结果。总的来说，观察到的PayPal财务表现似乎没有合理的原因让您认为前景比9个月前更糟糕。</blockquote> Is market growth a concern?<blockquote>市场增长令人担忧吗？</blockquote> With that said, the only other possible explanation is that, indeed, there are external factors that will prevent&nbsp;PayPal from expanding at the previously perceived rate. The stock was recently&nbsp;downgraded by Bernstein, claiming \"market share growth concerns\". The stock has slid over 30% since it reached an ATH at $300 makingPayPal's valuation that much more attractive. But how does this weigh against concerns over market growth?<blockquote>话虽如此，唯一其他可能的解释是，确实有外部因素会阻止PayPal以之前认为的速度扩张。该股最近被伯恩斯坦下调评级，声称“市场份额增长担忧”。自达到300美元的ATH以来，该股已下跌超过30%，这使得PayPal的估值更具吸引力。但这如何抵消对市场增长的担忧呢？</blockquote> \"Fintech\" is no longer a novel concept, and in the last few years, we have seen hundreds if not thousands of companies come out with similar versions of whatPayPal offers. To say the market is saturated, might even be an understatement, butPayPal remains the king of the hill.<blockquote>“金融科技”不再是一个新颖的概念，在过去几年中，我们已经看到数百家甚至数千家公司推出了PayPal提供的类似版本。说市场已经饱和甚至可能是一种保守的说法，但PayPal仍然是山中之王。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/462ce82e5652c8762836c4ef98dcdee5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: datanyze.com<blockquote>资料来源：datanyze.com</blockquote> In terms of Payment Processing Software,PayPal has over 50% of the market, and I say that because Braintree, which takes the fifth position, is also owned byPayPal. The problemPayPal faces though, isn't coming from the hundreds of startups and newly IPO'd companies, but by the large players which we also see on his list.<blockquote>在支付处理软件方面，PayPal拥有超过50%的市场份额，我这么说是因为排名第五的Braintree也归PayPal所有。然而，PayPal面临的问题并不是来自数百家初创公司和新上市的公司，而是来自我们在他的名单上也看到的大公司。</blockquote> This includes AmazonPay, Shopify Inc.'s (SHOP) ShopPay and even Google Pay. Arguably, some of these services have an advantage, in that their payment offerings complement other services. Shopify, for example, incentivizes its users and merchants to use its payment processing platforms, and Google has the advantage of being deeply embedded in a lot of the things we do.<blockquote>这包括AmazonPay、Shopify Inc.(SHOP)的ShopPay甚至Google Pay。可以说，其中一些服务具有优势，因为它们的支付产品补充了其他服务。例如，Shopify激励其用户和商家使用其支付处理平台，而谷歌的优势在于深入参与我们所做的许多事情。</blockquote> In this regard, Shopify and Amazon, for example, have a big advantage, in that they control where much of the money online is spent and can use this to their advantage. However, the payment system is not just limited to eCommerce.PayPal has a presence in many other areas, such as international transfers/transactions and physical payments.PayPal can be used as a bank, and there are also advantages to being a complete financial service focused company, just like there are advantages to having an ecosystem of buyers and sellers on your platform.<blockquote>例如，在这方面，Shopify和亚马逊有很大的优势，因为他们控制着大部分在线资金的花费，并可以利用这一点。然而，支付系统不仅仅局限于电子商务。PayPal在许多其他领域都有业务，如国际转账/交易和实物支付。PayPal可以用作银行，作为一家专注于完整金融服务的公司也有优势，就像在你的平台上拥有买家和卖家的生态系统也有优势一样。</blockquote> Yes, the market is saturated, and growth will become a challenge, but I still believe thatPayPal can succeed long-term and I'll explain why.<blockquote>是的，市场已经饱和，增长将成为一个挑战，但我仍然相信PayPal可以长期成功，我会解释原因。</blockquote> Two more reasons I will hold on toPayPal<blockquote>还有两个我会坚持下去的理由PayPal</blockquote> My analysis continues to support thatPayPal is on track to deliver the growth and returns I expected weeks ago. In this regard,PayPal offers growth at a reasonable price. It is a profitable and well-established company that is going nowhere.<blockquote>我的分析继续支持PayPal有望实现我几周前预期的增长和回报。在这方面，PayPal以合理的价格提供增长。这是一家盈利且信誉良好的公司，但却一事无成。</blockquote> More specifically though, two factors make me especially bullish onPayPal; Venmo and the power of its Balance Sheet.<blockquote>更具体地说，有两个因素让我特别看好PayPal；Venmo及其资产负债表的力量。</blockquote> Starting with Venmo, this is perhaps the biggest reason why I thinkPayPal still holds plenty of value and growth potential. Venmo is one of the most popular payment Apps in the United States. In 2020 over&nbsp;$159 billion in transactions&nbsp;were processed through Venmo in 2020, and the App is on track to deliver $900 million in revenues in 2021 according to the latest earnings call.<blockquote>从Venmo开始，这也许是我认为PayPal仍然拥有巨大价值和增长潜力的最大原因。Venmo是美国最受欢迎的支付应用之一。根据最新的收益看涨期权，2020年通过Venmo处理了超过1590亿美元的交易，该应用程序有望在2021年实现9亿美元的收入。</blockquote> But Venmo is barely scratching the surface of what it can achieve, both in terms of growth and monetization. When it comes to the latter, we can see that Venmo can still come a long way in terms of monetization if we compare it to Square Inc.'s (SQ) CashApp.According to estimates, CashApp produced $54 per user in 2020, while Venmo only made $12 from each active user. There are slight differences in transaction costs, but most of this comes from the fact that CashApp is used more for cryptocurrency transactions. This is something Venmo can easily replicate.<blockquote>但无论是在增长还是货币化方面，Venmo都只是触及了其所能实现的表面。谈到后者，如果我们将Venmo与Square Inc.(SQ)的CashApp进行比较，我们可以看到Venmo在货币化方面仍有很长的路要走。据估计，CashApp在2020年为每个用户带来了54美元的收入，而Venmo仅从每个活跃用户身上获得了12美元的收入。交易成本略有差异，但这大部分来自于CashApp更多地用于加密货币交易。这是Venmo可以轻松复制的。</blockquote> In terms of growth though, Venmo can go much farther. Originally, Venmo was conceived as a peer-to-peer payment system, but this is quickly moving to businesses too. Amazon.com (AMZN)&nbsp;will be accepting Venmo payments&nbsp;starting in 2022, and I believe this will see significant success.<blockquote>不过，就增长而言，Venmo可以走得更远。最初，Venmo被认为是一个点对点支付系统，但这也很快转移到企业。亚马逊(AMZN)将从2022年开始接受Venmo支付，我相信这将取得巨大成功。</blockquote> Venmo has a place in the mobile phones of 65 million people, and this is somethingPayPal can leverage to its advantage moving forward.<blockquote>Venmo在6500万人的手机中占有一席之地，这是PayPal可以利用的优势。</blockquote> The other big reason I will continue to holdPayPal is its incredible Balance Sheet, and all the growth opportunities this opens.PayPal has $13.29 billion in cash and negative net debt. It has a much stronger balance sheet than its most established peers, such as Mastercard Corporation (MA). It's now time forPayPal to put this money to good use to expand its platform, especially internationally, something we already got a taste of in the last investor presentation.<blockquote>我将继续持有PayPal的另一个重要原因是其令人难以置信的资产负债表，以及由此带来的所有增长机会。PayPal拥有132.9亿美元现金和负净债务。它的资产负债表比万事达卡公司（MA）等最成熟的同行要强大得多。现在是PayPal充分利用这笔资金来扩展其平台的时候了，特别是在国际上，我们已经在上次投资者演示中尝到了这一点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3484de41ef449aa085877ee9374fa00\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"648\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Investor Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：投资者介绍</blockquote> On September 7th, it was announced thatPayPal was acquiring Paidy, which uses artificial intelligence to find out the creditworthiness of its users and offers payment instalment plans. This is just one example of howPayPal can enter new markets and expand its footprint. Much like I argued before with Shopify,PayPal can now leverage Paidy to also push its other payment platforms into the Japanese market. I am very excited to see what other acquisitionsPayPal will make.<blockquote>9月7日，PayPal宣布收购Paidy，该公司使用人工智能来了解用户的信用度，并提供支付分期付款计划。这只是PayPal如何进入新市场并扩大其足迹的一个例子。就像我之前与Shopify争论的那样，PayPal现在可以利用Paidy将其其他支付平台推向日本市场。我很高兴看到PayPal还会进行哪些其他收购。</blockquote> Takeaway<blockquote>外卖</blockquote> In conclusion, and referring back to the thesis summary, I see no material reason why shares ofPayPal should continue to depreciate. Exogenous factors haven't changed, competition has always been tough and the company is still on track to deliver on its medium and long term growth targets.PayPal offers investors growth at a reasonable price, and that is hard to come by these days.<blockquote>总之，回到论文摘要，我认为PayPal的股价没有理由继续贬值。外生因素没有改变，竞争一直很激烈，公司仍有望实现中长期增长目标。PayPal以合理的价格为投资者提供增长，而这在当今很难实现。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4470923-paypal-time-to-go-all-in\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4470923-paypal-time-to-go-all-in","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158506816","content_text":"Summary\n\nPayPal has fallen over 30% since its ATH due to poor guidance and increased competition concerns.\nI argue that PayPal is still on track to achieve its long-term goals, and competition, albeit fierce, is manageable.\nThe potential of Venmo and PayPal's future acquisition are what keep me coming back for more.\n\nSouth_agency/E+ via Getty Images\nThesis Summary\nSeven months ago, we analyzedPayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) and concluded that our target price of $425 for 2025 made the $266 purchase give a compound return of 10.5% per year. At the time, we were forecasting revenue, earnings, and PE ratios to calculate the target price.\nAlthough our forecasted PE ratio based on its relation to Earnings suggested the price was a little high for that point in time, it seemed that the market was granting the company a higher valuation given its remarkably consistent track record.\nIt took very little smoothing to set historical revenue growth at a consistent 17.9% per year, and as for the earnings margin, net income was very close to 13.55% of revenue almost every year. The only two exceptions were one negative, in 2014, and one positive, in 2020, where the margin was 19.6%.\nAs the year 2021 has progressed,PayPal has dropped significantly, all the way down to $200. At this price, the $425 target for 2025 would give you a compound annual return of 20.1%. I can think of three possible explanations for this collapse:\na) The price was ahead of its time, and 2020 over performance got investors thinking growth had accelerated and that the price would go higher than we were forecasting. Ultimately, an investment relying on growth that has not yet materialized requires higher returns, and if the company is growing 18%, the investor wants to make at least 18% on their investment.\nb) There is a perceived risk of earnings growth slowing down significantly based on the company's performance after looking at financial reports from the first three quarters of 2021.\nc) There is a perceived risk of growth slowing down significantly due to factors outside of the company's financial performance, based on a qualitative analysis of the company and its addressable market.\nIf the correct answer is A, this is a great investment. If the logic feels compelling enough you should buy now and enjoy your 20% return over the years. I am going to focus on the other two scenarios, where we need to think about whether the business itself is actually in trouble.\n2021 Financial Performance\nOur previous analysis onPayPal was based on revenue and net income, as per GAAP figures up to 2020. Here I am going to look at the results of the first three quarters of 2021 to see if the results are disappointing.\nFirst off, we have revenue growth. Indeed, quarter on quarter it doesn't look great, but this is not uncommon inPayPal's history of seasonality. If you look at the chart below, you can see that revenue grows the most in the fourth quarter, always drops in the first (QoQ), and has mixed results from the first to the third. Also, to continue on the 17.9% growth trend, revenue in the fourth quarter would only have to be %6.65 billion less than 8% higher than in the third quarter.\nSource: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions.\nIt appears that all is good with revenue growth so far and 2021 looks to deliver once again on the near 20% revenue growth figure. Let's take a look at earnings. So far in the first 3 quarters of 2021, earnings have been, just as in 2020, much higher than the previous trend of 13.5% of revenue. So far, earnings are between 17.5 and 19% of revenue, with an average of 18.3%. It is true that this was 19.6% in 2020, but it also means that we can no longer reasonably consider 2020 an anomaly in that respect.\nSource: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.\nLooking at these figures, the only thing that could worry investors is year-on-year growth rates. If you look at the table below you can see the growth rates of revenue and earnings for Q3 2021, YTD or YoY and with the 1-year growth rate or the 2-year CAGR.\nSource: Author's work based on financial reports.\nThis gives a clue of what might be the problem, as year-on-year growth rates in the third quarter look significantly worse than average, especially in earnings growth. However, if you take into account that 2020 Q3 was an exceptionally good quarter, it seems likePayPal is being punished for how good results were in 2020. If you look at the 2-year growth, results seem great, especially in earnings (it is also true that Q3 2019 was exceptionally bad, but one argument is as valid as the other).\nTo illustrate this point, imagine that net income had been lower in 2020. The chart below contains the same figures as the one before, except that 2020 net income has been arbitrarily reduced to fit a more growing pattern.\nSource: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. *The figure from 2014 has been removed and the net income figure from 2020 has been reduced to illustrate the point explained above. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.\nThe result would be a much more promising-looking trend altogether. When taking short-term growth figures into account when valuing a company one should wonder if they are punishing bad results or actually punishing good results. All considered it doesn't seem like there is a reasonable cause in the observed financial performance ofPayPal that should make you think prospects are worse than they were 9 months ago.\nIs market growth a concern?\nWith that said, the only other possible explanation is that, indeed, there are external factors that will prevent PayPal from expanding at the previously perceived rate. The stock was recently downgraded by Bernstein, claiming \"market share growth concerns\". The stock has slid over 30% since it reached an ATH at $300 makingPayPal's valuation that much more attractive. But how does this weigh against concerns over market growth?\n\"Fintech\" is no longer a novel concept, and in the last few years, we have seen hundreds if not thousands of companies come out with similar versions of whatPayPal offers. To say the market is saturated, might even be an understatement, butPayPal remains the king of the hill.\nSource: datanyze.com\nIn terms of Payment Processing Software,PayPal has over 50% of the market, and I say that because Braintree, which takes the fifth position, is also owned byPayPal. The problemPayPal faces though, isn't coming from the hundreds of startups and newly IPO'd companies, but by the large players which we also see on his list.\nThis includes AmazonPay, Shopify Inc.'s (SHOP) ShopPay and even Google Pay. Arguably, some of these services have an advantage, in that their payment offerings complement other services. Shopify, for example, incentivizes its users and merchants to use its payment processing platforms, and Google has the advantage of being deeply embedded in a lot of the things we do.\nIn this regard, Shopify and Amazon, for example, have a big advantage, in that they control where much of the money online is spent and can use this to their advantage. However, the payment system is not just limited to eCommerce.PayPal has a presence in many other areas, such as international transfers/transactions and physical payments.PayPal can be used as a bank, and there are also advantages to being a complete financial service focused company, just like there are advantages to having an ecosystem of buyers and sellers on your platform.\nYes, the market is saturated, and growth will become a challenge, but I still believe thatPayPal can succeed long-term and I'll explain why.\nTwo more reasons I will hold on toPayPal\nMy analysis continues to support thatPayPal is on track to deliver the growth and returns I expected weeks ago. In this regard,PayPal offers growth at a reasonable price. It is a profitable and well-established company that is going nowhere.\nMore specifically though, two factors make me especially bullish onPayPal; Venmo and the power of its Balance Sheet.\nStarting with Venmo, this is perhaps the biggest reason why I thinkPayPal still holds plenty of value and growth potential. Venmo is one of the most popular payment Apps in the United States. In 2020 over $159 billion in transactions were processed through Venmo in 2020, and the App is on track to deliver $900 million in revenues in 2021 according to the latest earnings call.\nBut Venmo is barely scratching the surface of what it can achieve, both in terms of growth and monetization. When it comes to the latter, we can see that Venmo can still come a long way in terms of monetization if we compare it to Square Inc.'s (SQ) CashApp.According to estimates, CashApp produced $54 per user in 2020, while Venmo only made $12 from each active user. There are slight differences in transaction costs, but most of this comes from the fact that CashApp is used more for cryptocurrency transactions. This is something Venmo can easily replicate.\nIn terms of growth though, Venmo can go much farther. Originally, Venmo was conceived as a peer-to-peer payment system, but this is quickly moving to businesses too. Amazon.com (AMZN) will be accepting Venmo payments starting in 2022, and I believe this will see significant success.\nVenmo has a place in the mobile phones of 65 million people, and this is somethingPayPal can leverage to its advantage moving forward.\nThe other big reason I will continue to holdPayPal is its incredible Balance Sheet, and all the growth opportunities this opens.PayPal has $13.29 billion in cash and negative net debt. It has a much stronger balance sheet than its most established peers, such as Mastercard Corporation (MA). It's now time forPayPal to put this money to good use to expand its platform, especially internationally, something we already got a taste of in the last investor presentation.\nSource: Investor Presentation\nOn September 7th, it was announced thatPayPal was acquiring Paidy, which uses artificial intelligence to find out the creditworthiness of its users and offers payment instalment plans. This is just one example of howPayPal can enter new markets and expand its footprint. Much like I argued before with Shopify,PayPal can now leverage Paidy to also push its other payment platforms into the Japanese market. I am very excited to see what other acquisitionsPayPal will make.\nTakeaway\nIn conclusion, and referring back to the thesis summary, I see no material reason why shares ofPayPal should continue to depreciate. Exogenous factors haven't changed, competition has always been tough and the company is still on track to deliver on its medium and long term growth targets.PayPal offers investors growth at a reasonable price, and that is hard to come by these days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6674704,"gmtCreate":1637552937661,"gmtModify":1637552937763,"authorId":3555043402922696,"author":{"id":3555043402922696,"idStr":"3555043402922696","authorId":3555043402922696,"name":"Never ever f","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52501d43721648c944a019db9c767c5d","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":872545971,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Great payback","text":"Great payback","html":"Great payback"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":872549874,"gmtCreate":1637551622937,"gmtModify":1637551623119,"author":{"id":"3574922110603447","authorId":"3574922110603447","name":"Rolliopan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a76006b0036c2c9fde09d0a7571a72aa","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574922110603447","authorIdStr":"3574922110603447"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872549874","repostId":1158506816,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158506816","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637550842,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158506816?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-22 11:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal: Time To Go All In<blockquote>PayPal：是时候全力以赴了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158506816","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPayPal has fallen over 30% since its ATH due to poor guidance and increased competition con","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>PayPal has fallen over 30% since its ATH due to poor guidance and increased competition concerns.</li> <li>I argue that PayPal is still on track to achieve its long-term goals, and competition, albeit fierce, is manageable.</li> <li>The potential of Venmo and PayPal's future acquisition are what keep me coming back for more.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71b7d55858c35eda92a04deae062ef8b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">South_agency/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>由于指导不力和竞争担忧加剧，PayPal自ATH以来股价已下跌超过30%。</li><li>我认为PayPal仍在实现其长期目标的轨道上，竞争尽管激烈，但是可控的。</li><li>Venmo和PayPal未来收购的潜力让我不断回来购买更多。</li></ul>South_agency/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> Thesis Summary<blockquote>论文摘要</blockquote> Seven months ago, we analyzedPayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) and concluded that our target price of $425 for 2025 made the $266 purchase give a compound return of 10.5% per year. At the time, we were forecasting revenue, earnings, and PE ratios to calculate the target price.<blockquote>七个月前，我们分析了PayPal Holdings Inc.(PYPL)，得出的结论是，我们2025年425美元的目标价使得266美元的收购每年复合回报率为10.5%。当时，我们正在预测收入、盈利和市盈率来计算目标价。</blockquote> Although our forecasted PE ratio based on its relation to Earnings suggested the price was a little high for that point in time, it seemed that the market was granting the company a higher valuation given its remarkably consistent track record.<blockquote>尽管我们根据其与收益的关系预测市盈率表明当时的价格有点高，但鉴于该公司非常一致的业绩记录，市场似乎给予了该公司更高的估值。</blockquote> It took very little smoothing to set historical revenue growth at a consistent 17.9% per year, and as for the earnings margin, net income was very close to 13.55% of revenue almost every year. The only two exceptions were one negative, in 2014, and one positive, in 2020, where the margin was 19.6%.<blockquote>几乎不需要任何平滑就将历史收入增长率设定在每年17.9%，至于利润率，净利润几乎每年都非常接近收入的13.55%。仅有的两个例外是2014年的负利率和2020年的正利率，利润率为19.6%。</blockquote> As the year 2021 has progressed,PayPal has dropped significantly, all the way down to $200. At this price, the $425 target for 2025 would give you a compound annual return of 20.1%. I can think of three possible explanations for this collapse:<blockquote>随着2021年的进展，PayPal大幅下跌，一路跌至200美元。按照这个价格，2025年425美元的目标将为您带来20.1%的复合年回报率。对于这种崩溃，我可以想到三种可能的解释：</blockquote> a) The price was ahead of its time, and 2020 over performance got investors thinking growth had accelerated and that the price would go higher than we were forecasting. Ultimately, an investment relying on growth that has not yet materialized requires higher returns, and if the company is growing 18%, the investor wants to make at least 18% on their investment.<blockquote>a)价格领先于时代，2020年的表现让投资者认为增长已经加速，价格将高于我们的预期。最终，依赖尚未实现的增长的投资需要更高的回报，如果公司增长18%，投资者希望从投资中获得至少18%的回报。</blockquote> b) There is a perceived risk of earnings growth slowing down significantly based on the company's performance after looking at financial reports from the first three quarters of 2021.<blockquote>b)在查看2021年前三季度的财务报告后，根据公司的业绩，认为盈利增长存在大幅放缓的风险。</blockquote> c) There is a perceived risk of growth slowing down significantly due to factors outside of the company's financial performance, based on a qualitative analysis of the company and its addressable market.<blockquote>c)根据对公司及其目标市场的定性分析，由于公司财务业绩以外的因素，存在增长显着放缓的风险。</blockquote> If the correct answer is A, this is a great investment. If the logic feels compelling enough you should buy now and enjoy your 20% return over the years. I am going to focus on the other two scenarios, where we need to think about whether the business itself is actually in trouble.<blockquote>如果正确答案是A，这是一项伟大的投资。如果逻辑足够令人信服，您应该现在购买并享受多年来20%的回报。我将重点讨论另外两种情况，在这两种情况下，我们需要考虑企业本身是否真的陷入了困境。</blockquote> 2021 Financial Performance<blockquote>二零二一年财务表现</blockquote> Our previous analysis onPayPal was based on revenue and net income, as per GAAP figures up to 2020. Here I am going to look at the results of the first three quarters of 2021 to see if the results are disappointing.<blockquote>我们之前对PayPal的分析是基于截至2020年的GAAP数据的收入和净利润。这里我要看看2021年前三季度的业绩，看看业绩是否令人失望。</blockquote> First off, we have revenue growth. Indeed, quarter on quarter it doesn't look great, but this is not uncommon inPayPal's history of seasonality. If you look at the chart below, you can see that revenue grows the most in the fourth quarter, always drops in the first (QoQ), and has mixed results from the first to the third. Also, to continue on the 17.9% growth trend, revenue in the fourth quarter would only have to be %6.65 billion less than 8% higher than in the third quarter.<blockquote>首先，我们有收入增长。事实上，环比来看，情况并不乐观，但这在PayPal的季节性历史中并不罕见。如果你看下图，你可以看到第四季度收入增长最多，第一季度（环比）总是下降，并且从第一季度到第三季度的结果好坏参半。此外，要继续保持17.9%的增长趋势，第四季度的收入只需达到66.5亿美元，比第三季度增长不到8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fba8cbaa13348012cc020a72a4ecd1c\" tg-width=\"283\" tg-height=\"170\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。</blockquote> It appears that all is good with revenue growth so far and 2021 looks to deliver once again on the near 20% revenue growth figure. Let's take a look at earnings. So far in the first 3 quarters of 2021, earnings have been, just as in 2020, much higher than the previous trend of 13.5% of revenue. So far, earnings are between 17.5 and 19% of revenue, with an average of 18.3%. It is true that this was 19.6% in 2020, but it also means that we can no longer reasonably consider 2020 an anomaly in that respect.<blockquote>到目前为止，收入增长似乎一切顺利，2021年有望再次实现近20%的收入增长。我们来看看收益。到目前为止，2021年前3个季度的盈利与2020年一样，远高于之前占收入13.5%的趋势。到目前为止，盈利占收入的17.5%至19%之间，平均为18.3%。诚然，2020年这一比例为19.6%，但这也意味着我们不能再合理地认为2020年在这方面是一个异常现象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65fdec19cf0bd680067fed0f3ac34f92\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"290\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。2021年的数字是基于前3个季度的估计。</blockquote> Looking at these figures, the only thing that could worry investors is year-on-year growth rates. If you look at the table below you can see the growth rates of revenue and earnings for&nbsp;Q3 2021, YTD or YoY and with the 1-year growth rate or the 2-year CAGR.<blockquote>从这些数字来看，投资者唯一可能担心的是同比增长率。如果您查看下表，您可以看到2021年第三季度、年初至今或同比的收入和收益增长率以及1年增长率或2年CAGR。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c30583b007f9682b8b5c78496897f61d\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"145\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。</blockquote> This gives a clue of what might be the problem, as year-on-year growth rates in the third quarter look significantly worse than average, especially in earnings growth. However, if you take into account that 2020 Q3 was an exceptionally good quarter, it seems likePayPal is being punished for how good results were in 2020. If you look at the 2-year growth, results seem great, especially in earnings (it is also true that Q3 2019 was exceptionally bad, but one argument is as valid as the other).<blockquote>这为问题可能出在哪里提供了线索，因为第三季度的同比增长率看起来明显低于平均水平，尤其是在盈利增长方面。然而，如果你考虑到2020年第三季度是一个非常好的季度，那么PayPal似乎因2020年的良好业绩而受到惩罚。如果你看看两年的增长，结果似乎很好，尤其是在盈利方面（2019年第三季度确实异常糟糕，但一个论点和另一个一样有效）。</blockquote> To illustrate this point, imagine that net income had been lower in 2020. The chart below contains the same figures as the one before, except that 2020 net income has been arbitrarily reduced to fit a more growing pattern.<blockquote>为了说明这一点，想象一下2020年净利润较低。下图包含与上一张相同的数字，只是2020年净利润被任意减少以适应更增长的模式。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b14c61672e1db2d56752a6a07d858b3\" tg-width=\"483\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. *The figure from 2014 has been removed and the net income figure from 2020 has been reduced to illustrate the point explained above. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。*二零一四年的数字已删除，而二零二零年的净收入数字已减少，以说明上文所解释的要点。2021年的数字是基于前3个季度的估计。</blockquote> The result would be a much more promising-looking trend altogether. When taking short-term growth figures into account when valuing a company one should wonder if they are punishing bad results or actually punishing good results. All considered it doesn't seem like there is a reasonable cause in the observed financial performance ofPayPal that should make you think prospects are worse than they were 9 months ago.<blockquote>结果将是一个看起来更有希望的趋势。当在评估一家公司时考虑短期增长数据时，人们应该怀疑他们是在惩罚糟糕的结果还是实际上在惩罚好的结果。总的来说，观察到的PayPal财务表现似乎没有合理的原因让您认为前景比9个月前更糟糕。</blockquote> Is market growth a concern?<blockquote>市场增长令人担忧吗？</blockquote> With that said, the only other possible explanation is that, indeed, there are external factors that will prevent&nbsp;PayPal from expanding at the previously perceived rate. The stock was recently&nbsp;downgraded by Bernstein, claiming \"market share growth concerns\". The stock has slid over 30% since it reached an ATH at $300 makingPayPal's valuation that much more attractive. But how does this weigh against concerns over market growth?<blockquote>话虽如此，唯一其他可能的解释是，确实有外部因素会阻止PayPal以之前认为的速度扩张。该股最近被伯恩斯坦下调评级，声称“市场份额增长担忧”。自达到300美元的ATH以来，该股已下跌超过30%，这使得PayPal的估值更具吸引力。但这如何抵消对市场增长的担忧呢？</blockquote> \"Fintech\" is no longer a novel concept, and in the last few years, we have seen hundreds if not thousands of companies come out with similar versions of whatPayPal offers. To say the market is saturated, might even be an understatement, butPayPal remains the king of the hill.<blockquote>“金融科技”不再是一个新颖的概念，在过去几年中，我们已经看到数百家甚至数千家公司推出了PayPal提供的类似版本。说市场已经饱和甚至可能是一种保守的说法，但PayPal仍然是山中之王。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/462ce82e5652c8762836c4ef98dcdee5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: datanyze.com<blockquote>资料来源：datanyze.com</blockquote> In terms of Payment Processing Software,PayPal has over 50% of the market, and I say that because Braintree, which takes the fifth position, is also owned byPayPal. The problemPayPal faces though, isn't coming from the hundreds of startups and newly IPO'd companies, but by the large players which we also see on his list.<blockquote>在支付处理软件方面，PayPal拥有超过50%的市场份额，我这么说是因为排名第五的Braintree也归PayPal所有。然而，PayPal面临的问题并不是来自数百家初创公司和新上市的公司，而是来自我们在他的名单上也看到的大公司。</blockquote> This includes AmazonPay, Shopify Inc.'s (SHOP) ShopPay and even Google Pay. Arguably, some of these services have an advantage, in that their payment offerings complement other services. Shopify, for example, incentivizes its users and merchants to use its payment processing platforms, and Google has the advantage of being deeply embedded in a lot of the things we do.<blockquote>这包括AmazonPay、Shopify Inc.(SHOP)的ShopPay甚至Google Pay。可以说，其中一些服务具有优势，因为它们的支付产品补充了其他服务。例如，Shopify激励其用户和商家使用其支付处理平台，而谷歌的优势在于深入参与我们所做的许多事情。</blockquote> In this regard, Shopify and Amazon, for example, have a big advantage, in that they control where much of the money online is spent and can use this to their advantage. However, the payment system is not just limited to eCommerce.PayPal has a presence in many other areas, such as international transfers/transactions and physical payments.PayPal can be used as a bank, and there are also advantages to being a complete financial service focused company, just like there are advantages to having an ecosystem of buyers and sellers on your platform.<blockquote>例如，在这方面，Shopify和亚马逊有很大的优势，因为他们控制着大部分在线资金的花费，并可以利用这一点。然而，支付系统不仅仅局限于电子商务。PayPal在许多其他领域都有业务，如国际转账/交易和实物支付。PayPal可以用作银行，作为一家专注于完整金融服务的公司也有优势，就像在你的平台上拥有买家和卖家的生态系统也有优势一样。</blockquote> Yes, the market is saturated, and growth will become a challenge, but I still believe thatPayPal can succeed long-term and I'll explain why.<blockquote>是的，市场已经饱和，增长将成为一个挑战，但我仍然相信PayPal可以长期成功，我会解释原因。</blockquote> Two more reasons I will hold on toPayPal<blockquote>还有两个我会坚持下去的理由PayPal</blockquote> My analysis continues to support thatPayPal is on track to deliver the growth and returns I expected weeks ago. In this regard,PayPal offers growth at a reasonable price. It is a profitable and well-established company that is going nowhere.<blockquote>我的分析继续支持PayPal有望实现我几周前预期的增长和回报。在这方面，PayPal以合理的价格提供增长。这是一家盈利且信誉良好的公司，但却一事无成。</blockquote> More specifically though, two factors make me especially bullish onPayPal; Venmo and the power of its Balance Sheet.<blockquote>更具体地说，有两个因素让我特别看好PayPal；Venmo及其资产负债表的力量。</blockquote> Starting with Venmo, this is perhaps the biggest reason why I thinkPayPal still holds plenty of value and growth potential. Venmo is one of the most popular payment Apps in the United States. In 2020 over&nbsp;$159 billion in transactions&nbsp;were processed through Venmo in 2020, and the App is on track to deliver $900 million in revenues in 2021 according to the latest earnings call.<blockquote>从Venmo开始，这也许是我认为PayPal仍然拥有巨大价值和增长潜力的最大原因。Venmo是美国最受欢迎的支付应用之一。根据最新的收益看涨期权，2020年通过Venmo处理了超过1590亿美元的交易，该应用程序有望在2021年实现9亿美元的收入。</blockquote> But Venmo is barely scratching the surface of what it can achieve, both in terms of growth and monetization. When it comes to the latter, we can see that Venmo can still come a long way in terms of monetization if we compare it to Square Inc.'s (SQ) CashApp.According to estimates, CashApp produced $54 per user in 2020, while Venmo only made $12 from each active user. There are slight differences in transaction costs, but most of this comes from the fact that CashApp is used more for cryptocurrency transactions. This is something Venmo can easily replicate.<blockquote>但无论是在增长还是货币化方面，Venmo都只是触及了其所能实现的表面。谈到后者，如果我们将Venmo与Square Inc.(SQ)的CashApp进行比较，我们可以看到Venmo在货币化方面仍有很长的路要走。据估计，CashApp在2020年为每个用户带来了54美元的收入，而Venmo仅从每个活跃用户身上获得了12美元的收入。交易成本略有差异，但这大部分来自于CashApp更多地用于加密货币交易。这是Venmo可以轻松复制的。</blockquote> In terms of growth though, Venmo can go much farther. Originally, Venmo was conceived as a peer-to-peer payment system, but this is quickly moving to businesses too. Amazon.com (AMZN)&nbsp;will be accepting Venmo payments&nbsp;starting in 2022, and I believe this will see significant success.<blockquote>不过，就增长而言，Venmo可以走得更远。最初，Venmo被认为是一个点对点支付系统，但这也很快转移到企业。亚马逊(AMZN)将从2022年开始接受Venmo支付，我相信这将取得巨大成功。</blockquote> Venmo has a place in the mobile phones of 65 million people, and this is somethingPayPal can leverage to its advantage moving forward.<blockquote>Venmo在6500万人的手机中占有一席之地，这是PayPal可以利用的优势。</blockquote> The other big reason I will continue to holdPayPal is its incredible Balance Sheet, and all the growth opportunities this opens.PayPal has $13.29 billion in cash and negative net debt. It has a much stronger balance sheet than its most established peers, such as Mastercard Corporation (MA). It's now time forPayPal to put this money to good use to expand its platform, especially internationally, something we already got a taste of in the last investor presentation.<blockquote>我将继续持有PayPal的另一个重要原因是其令人难以置信的资产负债表，以及由此带来的所有增长机会。PayPal拥有132.9亿美元现金和负净债务。它的资产负债表比万事达卡公司（MA）等最成熟的同行要强大得多。现在是PayPal充分利用这笔资金来扩展其平台的时候了，特别是在国际上，我们已经在上次投资者演示中尝到了这一点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3484de41ef449aa085877ee9374fa00\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"648\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Investor Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：投资者介绍</blockquote> On September 7th, it was announced thatPayPal was acquiring Paidy, which uses artificial intelligence to find out the creditworthiness of its users and offers payment instalment plans. This is just one example of howPayPal can enter new markets and expand its footprint. Much like I argued before with Shopify,PayPal can now leverage Paidy to also push its other payment platforms into the Japanese market. I am very excited to see what other acquisitionsPayPal will make.<blockquote>9月7日，PayPal宣布收购Paidy，该公司使用人工智能来了解用户的信用度，并提供支付分期付款计划。这只是PayPal如何进入新市场并扩大其足迹的一个例子。就像我之前与Shopify争论的那样，PayPal现在可以利用Paidy将其其他支付平台推向日本市场。我很高兴看到PayPal还会进行哪些其他收购。</blockquote> Takeaway<blockquote>外卖</blockquote> In conclusion, and referring back to the thesis summary, I see no material reason why shares ofPayPal should continue to depreciate. Exogenous factors haven't changed, competition has always been tough and the company is still on track to deliver on its medium and long term growth targets.PayPal offers investors growth at a reasonable price, and that is hard to come by these days.<blockquote>总之，回到论文摘要，我认为PayPal的股价没有理由继续贬值。外生因素没有改变，竞争一直很激烈，公司仍有望实现中长期增长目标。PayPal以合理的价格为投资者提供增长，而这在当今很难实现。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal: Time To Go All In<blockquote>PayPal：是时候全力以赴了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal: Time To Go All In<blockquote>PayPal：是时候全力以赴了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-11-22 11:14\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>PayPal has fallen over 30% since its ATH due to poor guidance and increased competition concerns.</li> <li>I argue that PayPal is still on track to achieve its long-term goals, and competition, albeit fierce, is manageable.</li> <li>The potential of Venmo and PayPal's future acquisition are what keep me coming back for more.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71b7d55858c35eda92a04deae062ef8b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">South_agency/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>由于指导不力和竞争担忧加剧，PayPal自ATH以来股价已下跌超过30%。</li><li>我认为PayPal仍在实现其长期目标的轨道上，竞争尽管激烈，但是可控的。</li><li>Venmo和PayPal未来收购的潜力让我不断回来购买更多。</li></ul>South_agency/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> Thesis Summary<blockquote>论文摘要</blockquote> Seven months ago, we analyzedPayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) and concluded that our target price of $425 for 2025 made the $266 purchase give a compound return of 10.5% per year. At the time, we were forecasting revenue, earnings, and PE ratios to calculate the target price.<blockquote>七个月前，我们分析了PayPal Holdings Inc.(PYPL)，得出的结论是，我们2025年425美元的目标价使得266美元的收购每年复合回报率为10.5%。当时，我们正在预测收入、盈利和市盈率来计算目标价。</blockquote> Although our forecasted PE ratio based on its relation to Earnings suggested the price was a little high for that point in time, it seemed that the market was granting the company a higher valuation given its remarkably consistent track record.<blockquote>尽管我们根据其与收益的关系预测市盈率表明当时的价格有点高，但鉴于该公司非常一致的业绩记录，市场似乎给予了该公司更高的估值。</blockquote> It took very little smoothing to set historical revenue growth at a consistent 17.9% per year, and as for the earnings margin, net income was very close to 13.55% of revenue almost every year. The only two exceptions were one negative, in 2014, and one positive, in 2020, where the margin was 19.6%.<blockquote>几乎不需要任何平滑就将历史收入增长率设定在每年17.9%，至于利润率，净利润几乎每年都非常接近收入的13.55%。仅有的两个例外是2014年的负利率和2020年的正利率，利润率为19.6%。</blockquote> As the year 2021 has progressed,PayPal has dropped significantly, all the way down to $200. At this price, the $425 target for 2025 would give you a compound annual return of 20.1%. I can think of three possible explanations for this collapse:<blockquote>随着2021年的进展，PayPal大幅下跌，一路跌至200美元。按照这个价格，2025年425美元的目标将为您带来20.1%的复合年回报率。对于这种崩溃，我可以想到三种可能的解释：</blockquote> a) The price was ahead of its time, and 2020 over performance got investors thinking growth had accelerated and that the price would go higher than we were forecasting. Ultimately, an investment relying on growth that has not yet materialized requires higher returns, and if the company is growing 18%, the investor wants to make at least 18% on their investment.<blockquote>a)价格领先于时代，2020年的表现让投资者认为增长已经加速，价格将高于我们的预期。最终，依赖尚未实现的增长的投资需要更高的回报，如果公司增长18%，投资者希望从投资中获得至少18%的回报。</blockquote> b) There is a perceived risk of earnings growth slowing down significantly based on the company's performance after looking at financial reports from the first three quarters of 2021.<blockquote>b)在查看2021年前三季度的财务报告后，根据公司的业绩，认为盈利增长存在大幅放缓的风险。</blockquote> c) There is a perceived risk of growth slowing down significantly due to factors outside of the company's financial performance, based on a qualitative analysis of the company and its addressable market.<blockquote>c)根据对公司及其目标市场的定性分析，由于公司财务业绩以外的因素，存在增长显着放缓的风险。</blockquote> If the correct answer is A, this is a great investment. If the logic feels compelling enough you should buy now and enjoy your 20% return over the years. I am going to focus on the other two scenarios, where we need to think about whether the business itself is actually in trouble.<blockquote>如果正确答案是A，这是一项伟大的投资。如果逻辑足够令人信服，您应该现在购买并享受多年来20%的回报。我将重点讨论另外两种情况，在这两种情况下，我们需要考虑企业本身是否真的陷入了困境。</blockquote> 2021 Financial Performance<blockquote>二零二一年财务表现</blockquote> Our previous analysis onPayPal was based on revenue and net income, as per GAAP figures up to 2020. Here I am going to look at the results of the first three quarters of 2021 to see if the results are disappointing.<blockquote>我们之前对PayPal的分析是基于截至2020年的GAAP数据的收入和净利润。这里我要看看2021年前三季度的业绩，看看业绩是否令人失望。</blockquote> First off, we have revenue growth. Indeed, quarter on quarter it doesn't look great, but this is not uncommon inPayPal's history of seasonality. If you look at the chart below, you can see that revenue grows the most in the fourth quarter, always drops in the first (QoQ), and has mixed results from the first to the third. Also, to continue on the 17.9% growth trend, revenue in the fourth quarter would only have to be %6.65 billion less than 8% higher than in the third quarter.<blockquote>首先，我们有收入增长。事实上，环比来看，情况并不乐观，但这在PayPal的季节性历史中并不罕见。如果你看下图，你可以看到第四季度收入增长最多，第一季度（环比）总是下降，并且从第一季度到第三季度的结果好坏参半。此外，要继续保持17.9%的增长趋势，第四季度的收入只需达到66.5亿美元，比第三季度增长不到8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fba8cbaa13348012cc020a72a4ecd1c\" tg-width=\"283\" tg-height=\"170\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。</blockquote> It appears that all is good with revenue growth so far and 2021 looks to deliver once again on the near 20% revenue growth figure. Let's take a look at earnings. So far in the first 3 quarters of 2021, earnings have been, just as in 2020, much higher than the previous trend of 13.5% of revenue. So far, earnings are between 17.5 and 19% of revenue, with an average of 18.3%. It is true that this was 19.6% in 2020, but it also means that we can no longer reasonably consider 2020 an anomaly in that respect.<blockquote>到目前为止，收入增长似乎一切顺利，2021年有望再次实现近20%的收入增长。我们来看看收益。到目前为止，2021年前3个季度的盈利与2020年一样，远高于之前占收入13.5%的趋势。到目前为止，盈利占收入的17.5%至19%之间，平均为18.3%。诚然，2020年这一比例为19.6%，但这也意味着我们不能再合理地认为2020年在这方面是一个异常现象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65fdec19cf0bd680067fed0f3ac34f92\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"290\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。2021年的数字是基于前3个季度的估计。</blockquote> Looking at these figures, the only thing that could worry investors is year-on-year growth rates. If you look at the table below you can see the growth rates of revenue and earnings for&nbsp;Q3 2021, YTD or YoY and with the 1-year growth rate or the 2-year CAGR.<blockquote>从这些数字来看，投资者唯一可能担心的是同比增长率。如果您查看下表，您可以看到2021年第三季度、年初至今或同比的收入和收益增长率以及1年增长率或2年CAGR。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c30583b007f9682b8b5c78496897f61d\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"145\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。</blockquote> This gives a clue of what might be the problem, as year-on-year growth rates in the third quarter look significantly worse than average, especially in earnings growth. However, if you take into account that 2020 Q3 was an exceptionally good quarter, it seems likePayPal is being punished for how good results were in 2020. If you look at the 2-year growth, results seem great, especially in earnings (it is also true that Q3 2019 was exceptionally bad, but one argument is as valid as the other).<blockquote>这为问题可能出在哪里提供了线索，因为第三季度的同比增长率看起来明显低于平均水平，尤其是在盈利增长方面。然而，如果你考虑到2020年第三季度是一个非常好的季度，那么PayPal似乎因2020年的良好业绩而受到惩罚。如果你看看两年的增长，结果似乎很好，尤其是在盈利方面（2019年第三季度确实异常糟糕，但一个论点和另一个一样有效）。</blockquote> To illustrate this point, imagine that net income had been lower in 2020. The chart below contains the same figures as the one before, except that 2020 net income has been arbitrarily reduced to fit a more growing pattern.<blockquote>为了说明这一点，想象一下2020年净利润较低。下图包含与上一张相同的数字，只是2020年净利润被任意减少以适应更增长的模式。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b14c61672e1db2d56752a6a07d858b3\" tg-width=\"483\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. *The figure from 2014 has been removed and the net income figure from 2020 has been reduced to illustrate the point explained above. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。*二零一四年的数字已删除，而二零二零年的净收入数字已减少，以说明上文所解释的要点。2021年的数字是基于前3个季度的估计。</blockquote> The result would be a much more promising-looking trend altogether. When taking short-term growth figures into account when valuing a company one should wonder if they are punishing bad results or actually punishing good results. All considered it doesn't seem like there is a reasonable cause in the observed financial performance ofPayPal that should make you think prospects are worse than they were 9 months ago.<blockquote>结果将是一个看起来更有希望的趋势。当在评估一家公司时考虑短期增长数据时，人们应该怀疑他们是在惩罚糟糕的结果还是实际上在惩罚好的结果。总的来说，观察到的PayPal财务表现似乎没有合理的原因让您认为前景比9个月前更糟糕。</blockquote> Is market growth a concern?<blockquote>市场增长令人担忧吗？</blockquote> With that said, the only other possible explanation is that, indeed, there are external factors that will prevent&nbsp;PayPal from expanding at the previously perceived rate. The stock was recently&nbsp;downgraded by Bernstein, claiming \"market share growth concerns\". The stock has slid over 30% since it reached an ATH at $300 makingPayPal's valuation that much more attractive. But how does this weigh against concerns over market growth?<blockquote>话虽如此，唯一其他可能的解释是，确实有外部因素会阻止PayPal以之前认为的速度扩张。该股最近被伯恩斯坦下调评级，声称“市场份额增长担忧”。自达到300美元的ATH以来，该股已下跌超过30%，这使得PayPal的估值更具吸引力。但这如何抵消对市场增长的担忧呢？</blockquote> \"Fintech\" is no longer a novel concept, and in the last few years, we have seen hundreds if not thousands of companies come out with similar versions of whatPayPal offers. To say the market is saturated, might even be an understatement, butPayPal remains the king of the hill.<blockquote>“金融科技”不再是一个新颖的概念，在过去几年中，我们已经看到数百家甚至数千家公司推出了PayPal提供的类似版本。说市场已经饱和甚至可能是一种保守的说法，但PayPal仍然是山中之王。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/462ce82e5652c8762836c4ef98dcdee5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: datanyze.com<blockquote>资料来源：datanyze.com</blockquote> In terms of Payment Processing Software,PayPal has over 50% of the market, and I say that because Braintree, which takes the fifth position, is also owned byPayPal. The problemPayPal faces though, isn't coming from the hundreds of startups and newly IPO'd companies, but by the large players which we also see on his list.<blockquote>在支付处理软件方面，PayPal拥有超过50%的市场份额，我这么说是因为排名第五的Braintree也归PayPal所有。然而，PayPal面临的问题并不是来自数百家初创公司和新上市的公司，而是来自我们在他的名单上也看到的大公司。</blockquote> This includes AmazonPay, Shopify Inc.'s (SHOP) ShopPay and even Google Pay. Arguably, some of these services have an advantage, in that their payment offerings complement other services. Shopify, for example, incentivizes its users and merchants to use its payment processing platforms, and Google has the advantage of being deeply embedded in a lot of the things we do.<blockquote>这包括AmazonPay、Shopify Inc.(SHOP)的ShopPay甚至Google Pay。可以说，其中一些服务具有优势，因为它们的支付产品补充了其他服务。例如，Shopify激励其用户和商家使用其支付处理平台，而谷歌的优势在于深入参与我们所做的许多事情。</blockquote> In this regard, Shopify and Amazon, for example, have a big advantage, in that they control where much of the money online is spent and can use this to their advantage. However, the payment system is not just limited to eCommerce.PayPal has a presence in many other areas, such as international transfers/transactions and physical payments.PayPal can be used as a bank, and there are also advantages to being a complete financial service focused company, just like there are advantages to having an ecosystem of buyers and sellers on your platform.<blockquote>例如，在这方面，Shopify和亚马逊有很大的优势，因为他们控制着大部分在线资金的花费，并可以利用这一点。然而，支付系统不仅仅局限于电子商务。PayPal在许多其他领域都有业务，如国际转账/交易和实物支付。PayPal可以用作银行，作为一家专注于完整金融服务的公司也有优势，就像在你的平台上拥有买家和卖家的生态系统也有优势一样。</blockquote> Yes, the market is saturated, and growth will become a challenge, but I still believe thatPayPal can succeed long-term and I'll explain why.<blockquote>是的，市场已经饱和，增长将成为一个挑战，但我仍然相信PayPal可以长期成功，我会解释原因。</blockquote> Two more reasons I will hold on toPayPal<blockquote>还有两个我会坚持下去的理由PayPal</blockquote> My analysis continues to support thatPayPal is on track to deliver the growth and returns I expected weeks ago. In this regard,PayPal offers growth at a reasonable price. It is a profitable and well-established company that is going nowhere.<blockquote>我的分析继续支持PayPal有望实现我几周前预期的增长和回报。在这方面，PayPal以合理的价格提供增长。这是一家盈利且信誉良好的公司，但却一事无成。</blockquote> More specifically though, two factors make me especially bullish onPayPal; Venmo and the power of its Balance Sheet.<blockquote>更具体地说，有两个因素让我特别看好PayPal；Venmo及其资产负债表的力量。</blockquote> Starting with Venmo, this is perhaps the biggest reason why I thinkPayPal still holds plenty of value and growth potential. Venmo is one of the most popular payment Apps in the United States. In 2020 over&nbsp;$159 billion in transactions&nbsp;were processed through Venmo in 2020, and the App is on track to deliver $900 million in revenues in 2021 according to the latest earnings call.<blockquote>从Venmo开始，这也许是我认为PayPal仍然拥有巨大价值和增长潜力的最大原因。Venmo是美国最受欢迎的支付应用之一。根据最新的收益看涨期权，2020年通过Venmo处理了超过1590亿美元的交易，该应用程序有望在2021年实现9亿美元的收入。</blockquote> But Venmo is barely scratching the surface of what it can achieve, both in terms of growth and monetization. When it comes to the latter, we can see that Venmo can still come a long way in terms of monetization if we compare it to Square Inc.'s (SQ) CashApp.According to estimates, CashApp produced $54 per user in 2020, while Venmo only made $12 from each active user. There are slight differences in transaction costs, but most of this comes from the fact that CashApp is used more for cryptocurrency transactions. This is something Venmo can easily replicate.<blockquote>但无论是在增长还是货币化方面，Venmo都只是触及了其所能实现的表面。谈到后者，如果我们将Venmo与Square Inc.(SQ)的CashApp进行比较，我们可以看到Venmo在货币化方面仍有很长的路要走。据估计，CashApp在2020年为每个用户带来了54美元的收入，而Venmo仅从每个活跃用户身上获得了12美元的收入。交易成本略有差异，但这大部分来自于CashApp更多地用于加密货币交易。这是Venmo可以轻松复制的。</blockquote> In terms of growth though, Venmo can go much farther. Originally, Venmo was conceived as a peer-to-peer payment system, but this is quickly moving to businesses too. Amazon.com (AMZN)&nbsp;will be accepting Venmo payments&nbsp;starting in 2022, and I believe this will see significant success.<blockquote>不过，就增长而言，Venmo可以走得更远。最初，Venmo被认为是一个点对点支付系统，但这也很快转移到企业。亚马逊(AMZN)将从2022年开始接受Venmo支付，我相信这将取得巨大成功。</blockquote> Venmo has a place in the mobile phones of 65 million people, and this is somethingPayPal can leverage to its advantage moving forward.<blockquote>Venmo在6500万人的手机中占有一席之地，这是PayPal可以利用的优势。</blockquote> The other big reason I will continue to holdPayPal is its incredible Balance Sheet, and all the growth opportunities this opens.PayPal has $13.29 billion in cash and negative net debt. It has a much stronger balance sheet than its most established peers, such as Mastercard Corporation (MA). It's now time forPayPal to put this money to good use to expand its platform, especially internationally, something we already got a taste of in the last investor presentation.<blockquote>我将继续持有PayPal的另一个重要原因是其令人难以置信的资产负债表，以及由此带来的所有增长机会。PayPal拥有132.9亿美元现金和负净债务。它的资产负债表比万事达卡公司（MA）等最成熟的同行要强大得多。现在是PayPal充分利用这笔资金来扩展其平台的时候了，特别是在国际上，我们已经在上次投资者演示中尝到了这一点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3484de41ef449aa085877ee9374fa00\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"648\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Investor Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：投资者介绍</blockquote> On September 7th, it was announced thatPayPal was acquiring Paidy, which uses artificial intelligence to find out the creditworthiness of its users and offers payment instalment plans. This is just one example of howPayPal can enter new markets and expand its footprint. Much like I argued before with Shopify,PayPal can now leverage Paidy to also push its other payment platforms into the Japanese market. I am very excited to see what other acquisitionsPayPal will make.<blockquote>9月7日，PayPal宣布收购Paidy，该公司使用人工智能来了解用户的信用度，并提供支付分期付款计划。这只是PayPal如何进入新市场并扩大其足迹的一个例子。就像我之前与Shopify争论的那样，PayPal现在可以利用Paidy将其其他支付平台推向日本市场。我很高兴看到PayPal还会进行哪些其他收购。</blockquote> Takeaway<blockquote>外卖</blockquote> In conclusion, and referring back to the thesis summary, I see no material reason why shares ofPayPal should continue to depreciate. Exogenous factors haven't changed, competition has always been tough and the company is still on track to deliver on its medium and long term growth targets.PayPal offers investors growth at a reasonable price, and that is hard to come by these days.<blockquote>总之，回到论文摘要，我认为PayPal的股价没有理由继续贬值。外生因素没有改变，竞争一直很激烈，公司仍有望实现中长期增长目标。PayPal以合理的价格为投资者提供增长，而这在当今很难实现。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4470923-paypal-time-to-go-all-in\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4470923-paypal-time-to-go-all-in","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158506816","content_text":"Summary\n\nPayPal has fallen over 30% since its ATH due to poor guidance and increased competition concerns.\nI argue that PayPal is still on track to achieve its long-term goals, and competition, albeit fierce, is manageable.\nThe potential of Venmo and PayPal's future acquisition are what keep me coming back for more.\n\nSouth_agency/E+ via Getty Images\nThesis Summary\nSeven months ago, we analyzedPayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) and concluded that our target price of $425 for 2025 made the $266 purchase give a compound return of 10.5% per year. At the time, we were forecasting revenue, earnings, and PE ratios to calculate the target price.\nAlthough our forecasted PE ratio based on its relation to Earnings suggested the price was a little high for that point in time, it seemed that the market was granting the company a higher valuation given its remarkably consistent track record.\nIt took very little smoothing to set historical revenue growth at a consistent 17.9% per year, and as for the earnings margin, net income was very close to 13.55% of revenue almost every year. The only two exceptions were one negative, in 2014, and one positive, in 2020, where the margin was 19.6%.\nAs the year 2021 has progressed,PayPal has dropped significantly, all the way down to $200. At this price, the $425 target for 2025 would give you a compound annual return of 20.1%. I can think of three possible explanations for this collapse:\na) The price was ahead of its time, and 2020 over performance got investors thinking growth had accelerated and that the price would go higher than we were forecasting. Ultimately, an investment relying on growth that has not yet materialized requires higher returns, and if the company is growing 18%, the investor wants to make at least 18% on their investment.\nb) There is a perceived risk of earnings growth slowing down significantly based on the company's performance after looking at financial reports from the first three quarters of 2021.\nc) There is a perceived risk of growth slowing down significantly due to factors outside of the company's financial performance, based on a qualitative analysis of the company and its addressable market.\nIf the correct answer is A, this is a great investment. If the logic feels compelling enough you should buy now and enjoy your 20% return over the years. I am going to focus on the other two scenarios, where we need to think about whether the business itself is actually in trouble.\n2021 Financial Performance\nOur previous analysis onPayPal was based on revenue and net income, as per GAAP figures up to 2020. Here I am going to look at the results of the first three quarters of 2021 to see if the results are disappointing.\nFirst off, we have revenue growth. Indeed, quarter on quarter it doesn't look great, but this is not uncommon inPayPal's history of seasonality. If you look at the chart below, you can see that revenue grows the most in the fourth quarter, always drops in the first (QoQ), and has mixed results from the first to the third. Also, to continue on the 17.9% growth trend, revenue in the fourth quarter would only have to be %6.65 billion less than 8% higher than in the third quarter.\nSource: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions.\nIt appears that all is good with revenue growth so far and 2021 looks to deliver once again on the near 20% revenue growth figure. Let's take a look at earnings. So far in the first 3 quarters of 2021, earnings have been, just as in 2020, much higher than the previous trend of 13.5% of revenue. So far, earnings are between 17.5 and 19% of revenue, with an average of 18.3%. It is true that this was 19.6% in 2020, but it also means that we can no longer reasonably consider 2020 an anomaly in that respect.\nSource: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.\nLooking at these figures, the only thing that could worry investors is year-on-year growth rates. If you look at the table below you can see the growth rates of revenue and earnings for Q3 2021, YTD or YoY and with the 1-year growth rate or the 2-year CAGR.\nSource: Author's work based on financial reports.\nThis gives a clue of what might be the problem, as year-on-year growth rates in the third quarter look significantly worse than average, especially in earnings growth. However, if you take into account that 2020 Q3 was an exceptionally good quarter, it seems likePayPal is being punished for how good results were in 2020. If you look at the 2-year growth, results seem great, especially in earnings (it is also true that Q3 2019 was exceptionally bad, but one argument is as valid as the other).\nTo illustrate this point, imagine that net income had been lower in 2020. The chart below contains the same figures as the one before, except that 2020 net income has been arbitrarily reduced to fit a more growing pattern.\nSource: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. *The figure from 2014 has been removed and the net income figure from 2020 has been reduced to illustrate the point explained above. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.\nThe result would be a much more promising-looking trend altogether. When taking short-term growth figures into account when valuing a company one should wonder if they are punishing bad results or actually punishing good results. All considered it doesn't seem like there is a reasonable cause in the observed financial performance ofPayPal that should make you think prospects are worse than they were 9 months ago.\nIs market growth a concern?\nWith that said, the only other possible explanation is that, indeed, there are external factors that will prevent PayPal from expanding at the previously perceived rate. The stock was recently downgraded by Bernstein, claiming \"market share growth concerns\". The stock has slid over 30% since it reached an ATH at $300 makingPayPal's valuation that much more attractive. But how does this weigh against concerns over market growth?\n\"Fintech\" is no longer a novel concept, and in the last few years, we have seen hundreds if not thousands of companies come out with similar versions of whatPayPal offers. To say the market is saturated, might even be an understatement, butPayPal remains the king of the hill.\nSource: datanyze.com\nIn terms of Payment Processing Software,PayPal has over 50% of the market, and I say that because Braintree, which takes the fifth position, is also owned byPayPal. The problemPayPal faces though, isn't coming from the hundreds of startups and newly IPO'd companies, but by the large players which we also see on his list.\nThis includes AmazonPay, Shopify Inc.'s (SHOP) ShopPay and even Google Pay. Arguably, some of these services have an advantage, in that their payment offerings complement other services. Shopify, for example, incentivizes its users and merchants to use its payment processing platforms, and Google has the advantage of being deeply embedded in a lot of the things we do.\nIn this regard, Shopify and Amazon, for example, have a big advantage, in that they control where much of the money online is spent and can use this to their advantage. However, the payment system is not just limited to eCommerce.PayPal has a presence in many other areas, such as international transfers/transactions and physical payments.PayPal can be used as a bank, and there are also advantages to being a complete financial service focused company, just like there are advantages to having an ecosystem of buyers and sellers on your platform.\nYes, the market is saturated, and growth will become a challenge, but I still believe thatPayPal can succeed long-term and I'll explain why.\nTwo more reasons I will hold on toPayPal\nMy analysis continues to support thatPayPal is on track to deliver the growth and returns I expected weeks ago. In this regard,PayPal offers growth at a reasonable price. It is a profitable and well-established company that is going nowhere.\nMore specifically though, two factors make me especially bullish onPayPal; Venmo and the power of its Balance Sheet.\nStarting with Venmo, this is perhaps the biggest reason why I thinkPayPal still holds plenty of value and growth potential. Venmo is one of the most popular payment Apps in the United States. In 2020 over $159 billion in transactions were processed through Venmo in 2020, and the App is on track to deliver $900 million in revenues in 2021 according to the latest earnings call.\nBut Venmo is barely scratching the surface of what it can achieve, both in terms of growth and monetization. When it comes to the latter, we can see that Venmo can still come a long way in terms of monetization if we compare it to Square Inc.'s (SQ) CashApp.According to estimates, CashApp produced $54 per user in 2020, while Venmo only made $12 from each active user. There are slight differences in transaction costs, but most of this comes from the fact that CashApp is used more for cryptocurrency transactions. This is something Venmo can easily replicate.\nIn terms of growth though, Venmo can go much farther. Originally, Venmo was conceived as a peer-to-peer payment system, but this is quickly moving to businesses too. Amazon.com (AMZN) will be accepting Venmo payments starting in 2022, and I believe this will see significant success.\nVenmo has a place in the mobile phones of 65 million people, and this is somethingPayPal can leverage to its advantage moving forward.\nThe other big reason I will continue to holdPayPal is its incredible Balance Sheet, and all the growth opportunities this opens.PayPal has $13.29 billion in cash and negative net debt. It has a much stronger balance sheet than its most established peers, such as Mastercard Corporation (MA). It's now time forPayPal to put this money to good use to expand its platform, especially internationally, something we already got a taste of in the last investor presentation.\nSource: Investor Presentation\nOn September 7th, it was announced thatPayPal was acquiring Paidy, which uses artificial intelligence to find out the creditworthiness of its users and offers payment instalment plans. This is just one example of howPayPal can enter new markets and expand its footprint. Much like I argued before with Shopify,PayPal can now leverage Paidy to also push its other payment platforms into the Japanese market. I am very excited to see what other acquisitionsPayPal will make.\nTakeaway\nIn conclusion, and referring back to the thesis summary, I see no material reason why shares ofPayPal should continue to depreciate. Exogenous factors haven't changed, competition has always been tough and the company is still on track to deliver on its medium and long term growth targets.PayPal offers investors growth at a reasonable price, and that is hard to come by these days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6674489,"gmtCreate":1637551779458,"gmtModify":1637551779567,"authorId":3577621549460373,"author":{"id":3577621549460373,"idStr":"3577621549460373","authorId":3577621549460373,"name":"Mavfurious","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bc7a6fdcc64246397b09b1b07dbf895","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":872549874,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":872549346,"gmtCreate":1637551570413,"gmtModify":1637551623767,"author":{"id":"3582839637303229","authorId":"3582839637303229","name":"vxf","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1ee9a28e0a19bf5b87d52e90dc87788","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582839637303229","authorIdStr":"3582839637303229"},"htmlText":"Hi all,feel free to check out my profile about my crypto journey.&nbsp;it's for sharing only, simple PDF, no scams. Thanks &amp; have a nice day.","listText":"Hi all,feel free to check out my profile about my crypto journey.&nbsp;it's for sharing only, simple PDF, no scams. Thanks &amp; have a nice day.","text":"Hi all,feel free to check out my profile about my crypto journey. it's for sharing only, simple PDF, no scams. Thanks & have a nice day.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872549346","repostId":1158506816,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158506816","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637550842,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158506816?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-22 11:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal: Time To Go All In<blockquote>PayPal：是时候全力以赴了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158506816","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPayPal has fallen over 30% since its ATH due to poor guidance and increased competition con","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>PayPal has fallen over 30% since its ATH due to poor guidance and increased competition concerns.</li> <li>I argue that PayPal is still on track to achieve its long-term goals, and competition, albeit fierce, is manageable.</li> <li>The potential of Venmo and PayPal's future acquisition are what keep me coming back for more.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71b7d55858c35eda92a04deae062ef8b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">South_agency/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>由于指导不力和竞争担忧加剧，PayPal自ATH以来股价已下跌超过30%。</li><li>我认为PayPal仍在实现其长期目标的轨道上，竞争尽管激烈，但是可控的。</li><li>Venmo和PayPal未来收购的潜力让我不断回来购买更多。</li></ul>South_agency/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> Thesis Summary<blockquote>论文摘要</blockquote> Seven months ago, we analyzedPayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) and concluded that our target price of $425 for 2025 made the $266 purchase give a compound return of 10.5% per year. At the time, we were forecasting revenue, earnings, and PE ratios to calculate the target price.<blockquote>七个月前，我们分析了PayPal Holdings Inc.(PYPL)，得出的结论是，我们2025年425美元的目标价使得266美元的收购每年复合回报率为10.5%。当时，我们正在预测收入、盈利和市盈率来计算目标价。</blockquote> Although our forecasted PE ratio based on its relation to Earnings suggested the price was a little high for that point in time, it seemed that the market was granting the company a higher valuation given its remarkably consistent track record.<blockquote>尽管我们根据其与收益的关系预测市盈率表明当时的价格有点高，但鉴于该公司非常一致的业绩记录，市场似乎给予了该公司更高的估值。</blockquote> It took very little smoothing to set historical revenue growth at a consistent 17.9% per year, and as for the earnings margin, net income was very close to 13.55% of revenue almost every year. The only two exceptions were one negative, in 2014, and one positive, in 2020, where the margin was 19.6%.<blockquote>几乎不需要任何平滑就将历史收入增长率设定在每年17.9%，至于利润率，净利润几乎每年都非常接近收入的13.55%。仅有的两个例外是2014年的负利率和2020年的正利率，利润率为19.6%。</blockquote> As the year 2021 has progressed,PayPal has dropped significantly, all the way down to $200. At this price, the $425 target for 2025 would give you a compound annual return of 20.1%. I can think of three possible explanations for this collapse:<blockquote>随着2021年的进展，PayPal大幅下跌，一路跌至200美元。按照这个价格，2025年425美元的目标将为您带来20.1%的复合年回报率。对于这种崩溃，我可以想到三种可能的解释：</blockquote> a) The price was ahead of its time, and 2020 over performance got investors thinking growth had accelerated and that the price would go higher than we were forecasting. Ultimately, an investment relying on growth that has not yet materialized requires higher returns, and if the company is growing 18%, the investor wants to make at least 18% on their investment.<blockquote>a)价格领先于时代，2020年的表现让投资者认为增长已经加速，价格将高于我们的预期。最终，依赖尚未实现的增长的投资需要更高的回报，如果公司增长18%，投资者希望从投资中获得至少18%的回报。</blockquote> b) There is a perceived risk of earnings growth slowing down significantly based on the company's performance after looking at financial reports from the first three quarters of 2021.<blockquote>b)在查看2021年前三季度的财务报告后，根据公司的业绩，认为盈利增长存在大幅放缓的风险。</blockquote> c) There is a perceived risk of growth slowing down significantly due to factors outside of the company's financial performance, based on a qualitative analysis of the company and its addressable market.<blockquote>c)根据对公司及其目标市场的定性分析，由于公司财务业绩以外的因素，存在增长显着放缓的风险。</blockquote> If the correct answer is A, this is a great investment. If the logic feels compelling enough you should buy now and enjoy your 20% return over the years. I am going to focus on the other two scenarios, where we need to think about whether the business itself is actually in trouble.<blockquote>如果正确答案是A，这是一项伟大的投资。如果逻辑足够令人信服，您应该现在购买并享受多年来20%的回报。我将重点讨论另外两种情况，在这两种情况下，我们需要考虑企业本身是否真的陷入了困境。</blockquote> 2021 Financial Performance<blockquote>二零二一年财务表现</blockquote> Our previous analysis onPayPal was based on revenue and net income, as per GAAP figures up to 2020. Here I am going to look at the results of the first three quarters of 2021 to see if the results are disappointing.<blockquote>我们之前对PayPal的分析是基于截至2020年的GAAP数据的收入和净利润。这里我要看看2021年前三季度的业绩，看看业绩是否令人失望。</blockquote> First off, we have revenue growth. Indeed, quarter on quarter it doesn't look great, but this is not uncommon inPayPal's history of seasonality. If you look at the chart below, you can see that revenue grows the most in the fourth quarter, always drops in the first (QoQ), and has mixed results from the first to the third. Also, to continue on the 17.9% growth trend, revenue in the fourth quarter would only have to be %6.65 billion less than 8% higher than in the third quarter.<blockquote>首先，我们有收入增长。事实上，环比来看，情况并不乐观，但这在PayPal的季节性历史中并不罕见。如果你看下图，你可以看到第四季度收入增长最多，第一季度（环比）总是下降，并且从第一季度到第三季度的结果好坏参半。此外，要继续保持17.9%的增长趋势，第四季度的收入只需达到66.5亿美元，比第三季度增长不到8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fba8cbaa13348012cc020a72a4ecd1c\" tg-width=\"283\" tg-height=\"170\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。</blockquote> It appears that all is good with revenue growth so far and 2021 looks to deliver once again on the near 20% revenue growth figure. Let's take a look at earnings. So far in the first 3 quarters of 2021, earnings have been, just as in 2020, much higher than the previous trend of 13.5% of revenue. So far, earnings are between 17.5 and 19% of revenue, with an average of 18.3%. It is true that this was 19.6% in 2020, but it also means that we can no longer reasonably consider 2020 an anomaly in that respect.<blockquote>到目前为止，收入增长似乎一切顺利，2021年有望再次实现近20%的收入增长。我们来看看收益。到目前为止，2021年前3个季度的盈利与2020年一样，远高于之前占收入13.5%的趋势。到目前为止，盈利占收入的17.5%至19%之间，平均为18.3%。诚然，2020年这一比例为19.6%，但这也意味着我们不能再合理地认为2020年在这方面是一个异常现象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65fdec19cf0bd680067fed0f3ac34f92\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"290\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。2021年的数字是基于前3个季度的估计。</blockquote> Looking at these figures, the only thing that could worry investors is year-on-year growth rates. If you look at the table below you can see the growth rates of revenue and earnings for&nbsp;Q3 2021, YTD or YoY and with the 1-year growth rate or the 2-year CAGR.<blockquote>从这些数字来看，投资者唯一可能担心的是同比增长率。如果您查看下表，您可以看到2021年第三季度、年初至今或同比的收入和收益增长率以及1年增长率或2年CAGR。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c30583b007f9682b8b5c78496897f61d\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"145\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。</blockquote> This gives a clue of what might be the problem, as year-on-year growth rates in the third quarter look significantly worse than average, especially in earnings growth. However, if you take into account that 2020 Q3 was an exceptionally good quarter, it seems likePayPal is being punished for how good results were in 2020. If you look at the 2-year growth, results seem great, especially in earnings (it is also true that Q3 2019 was exceptionally bad, but one argument is as valid as the other).<blockquote>这为问题可能出在哪里提供了线索，因为第三季度的同比增长率看起来明显低于平均水平，尤其是在盈利增长方面。然而，如果你考虑到2020年第三季度是一个非常好的季度，那么PayPal似乎因2020年的良好业绩而受到惩罚。如果你看看两年的增长，结果似乎很好，尤其是在盈利方面（2019年第三季度确实异常糟糕，但一个论点和另一个一样有效）。</blockquote> To illustrate this point, imagine that net income had been lower in 2020. The chart below contains the same figures as the one before, except that 2020 net income has been arbitrarily reduced to fit a more growing pattern.<blockquote>为了说明这一点，想象一下2020年净利润较低。下图包含与上一张相同的数字，只是2020年净利润被任意减少以适应更增长的模式。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b14c61672e1db2d56752a6a07d858b3\" tg-width=\"483\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. *The figure from 2014 has been removed and the net income figure from 2020 has been reduced to illustrate the point explained above. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。*二零一四年的数字已删除，而二零二零年的净收入数字已减少，以说明上文所解释的要点。2021年的数字是基于前3个季度的估计。</blockquote> The result would be a much more promising-looking trend altogether. When taking short-term growth figures into account when valuing a company one should wonder if they are punishing bad results or actually punishing good results. All considered it doesn't seem like there is a reasonable cause in the observed financial performance ofPayPal that should make you think prospects are worse than they were 9 months ago.<blockquote>结果将是一个看起来更有希望的趋势。当在评估一家公司时考虑短期增长数据时，人们应该怀疑他们是在惩罚糟糕的结果还是实际上在惩罚好的结果。总的来说，观察到的PayPal财务表现似乎没有合理的原因让您认为前景比9个月前更糟糕。</blockquote> Is market growth a concern?<blockquote>市场增长令人担忧吗？</blockquote> With that said, the only other possible explanation is that, indeed, there are external factors that will prevent&nbsp;PayPal from expanding at the previously perceived rate. The stock was recently&nbsp;downgraded by Bernstein, claiming \"market share growth concerns\". The stock has slid over 30% since it reached an ATH at $300 makingPayPal's valuation that much more attractive. But how does this weigh against concerns over market growth?<blockquote>话虽如此，唯一其他可能的解释是，确实有外部因素会阻止PayPal以之前认为的速度扩张。该股最近被伯恩斯坦下调评级，声称“市场份额增长担忧”。自达到300美元的ATH以来，该股已下跌超过30%，这使得PayPal的估值更具吸引力。但这如何抵消对市场增长的担忧呢？</blockquote> \"Fintech\" is no longer a novel concept, and in the last few years, we have seen hundreds if not thousands of companies come out with similar versions of whatPayPal offers. To say the market is saturated, might even be an understatement, butPayPal remains the king of the hill.<blockquote>“金融科技”不再是一个新颖的概念，在过去几年中，我们已经看到数百家甚至数千家公司推出了PayPal提供的类似版本。说市场已经饱和甚至可能是一种保守的说法，但PayPal仍然是山中之王。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/462ce82e5652c8762836c4ef98dcdee5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: datanyze.com<blockquote>资料来源：datanyze.com</blockquote> In terms of Payment Processing Software,PayPal has over 50% of the market, and I say that because Braintree, which takes the fifth position, is also owned byPayPal. The problemPayPal faces though, isn't coming from the hundreds of startups and newly IPO'd companies, but by the large players which we also see on his list.<blockquote>在支付处理软件方面，PayPal拥有超过50%的市场份额，我这么说是因为排名第五的Braintree也归PayPal所有。然而，PayPal面临的问题并不是来自数百家初创公司和新上市的公司，而是来自我们在他的名单上也看到的大公司。</blockquote> This includes AmazonPay, Shopify Inc.'s (SHOP) ShopPay and even Google Pay. Arguably, some of these services have an advantage, in that their payment offerings complement other services. Shopify, for example, incentivizes its users and merchants to use its payment processing platforms, and Google has the advantage of being deeply embedded in a lot of the things we do.<blockquote>这包括AmazonPay、Shopify Inc.(SHOP)的ShopPay甚至Google Pay。可以说，其中一些服务具有优势，因为它们的支付产品补充了其他服务。例如，Shopify激励其用户和商家使用其支付处理平台，而谷歌的优势在于深入参与我们所做的许多事情。</blockquote> In this regard, Shopify and Amazon, for example, have a big advantage, in that they control where much of the money online is spent and can use this to their advantage. However, the payment system is not just limited to eCommerce.PayPal has a presence in many other areas, such as international transfers/transactions and physical payments.PayPal can be used as a bank, and there are also advantages to being a complete financial service focused company, just like there are advantages to having an ecosystem of buyers and sellers on your platform.<blockquote>例如，在这方面，Shopify和亚马逊有很大的优势，因为他们控制着大部分在线资金的花费，并可以利用这一点。然而，支付系统不仅仅局限于电子商务。PayPal在许多其他领域都有业务，如国际转账/交易和实物支付。PayPal可以用作银行，作为一家专注于完整金融服务的公司也有优势，就像在你的平台上拥有买家和卖家的生态系统也有优势一样。</blockquote> Yes, the market is saturated, and growth will become a challenge, but I still believe thatPayPal can succeed long-term and I'll explain why.<blockquote>是的，市场已经饱和，增长将成为一个挑战，但我仍然相信PayPal可以长期成功，我会解释原因。</blockquote> Two more reasons I will hold on toPayPal<blockquote>还有两个我会坚持下去的理由PayPal</blockquote> My analysis continues to support thatPayPal is on track to deliver the growth and returns I expected weeks ago. In this regard,PayPal offers growth at a reasonable price. It is a profitable and well-established company that is going nowhere.<blockquote>我的分析继续支持PayPal有望实现我几周前预期的增长和回报。在这方面，PayPal以合理的价格提供增长。这是一家盈利且信誉良好的公司，但却一事无成。</blockquote> More specifically though, two factors make me especially bullish onPayPal; Venmo and the power of its Balance Sheet.<blockquote>更具体地说，有两个因素让我特别看好PayPal；Venmo及其资产负债表的力量。</blockquote> Starting with Venmo, this is perhaps the biggest reason why I thinkPayPal still holds plenty of value and growth potential. Venmo is one of the most popular payment Apps in the United States. In 2020 over&nbsp;$159 billion in transactions&nbsp;were processed through Venmo in 2020, and the App is on track to deliver $900 million in revenues in 2021 according to the latest earnings call.<blockquote>从Venmo开始，这也许是我认为PayPal仍然拥有巨大价值和增长潜力的最大原因。Venmo是美国最受欢迎的支付应用之一。根据最新的收益看涨期权，2020年通过Venmo处理了超过1590亿美元的交易，该应用程序有望在2021年实现9亿美元的收入。</blockquote> But Venmo is barely scratching the surface of what it can achieve, both in terms of growth and monetization. When it comes to the latter, we can see that Venmo can still come a long way in terms of monetization if we compare it to Square Inc.'s (SQ) CashApp.According to estimates, CashApp produced $54 per user in 2020, while Venmo only made $12 from each active user. There are slight differences in transaction costs, but most of this comes from the fact that CashApp is used more for cryptocurrency transactions. This is something Venmo can easily replicate.<blockquote>但无论是在增长还是货币化方面，Venmo都只是触及了其所能实现的表面。谈到后者，如果我们将Venmo与Square Inc.(SQ)的CashApp进行比较，我们可以看到Venmo在货币化方面仍有很长的路要走。据估计，CashApp在2020年为每个用户带来了54美元的收入，而Venmo仅从每个活跃用户身上获得了12美元的收入。交易成本略有差异，但这大部分来自于CashApp更多地用于加密货币交易。这是Venmo可以轻松复制的。</blockquote> In terms of growth though, Venmo can go much farther. Originally, Venmo was conceived as a peer-to-peer payment system, but this is quickly moving to businesses too. Amazon.com (AMZN)&nbsp;will be accepting Venmo payments&nbsp;starting in 2022, and I believe this will see significant success.<blockquote>不过，就增长而言，Venmo可以走得更远。最初，Venmo被认为是一个点对点支付系统，但这也很快转移到企业。亚马逊(AMZN)将从2022年开始接受Venmo支付，我相信这将取得巨大成功。</blockquote> Venmo has a place in the mobile phones of 65 million people, and this is somethingPayPal can leverage to its advantage moving forward.<blockquote>Venmo在6500万人的手机中占有一席之地，这是PayPal可以利用的优势。</blockquote> The other big reason I will continue to holdPayPal is its incredible Balance Sheet, and all the growth opportunities this opens.PayPal has $13.29 billion in cash and negative net debt. It has a much stronger balance sheet than its most established peers, such as Mastercard Corporation (MA). It's now time forPayPal to put this money to good use to expand its platform, especially internationally, something we already got a taste of in the last investor presentation.<blockquote>我将继续持有PayPal的另一个重要原因是其令人难以置信的资产负债表，以及由此带来的所有增长机会。PayPal拥有132.9亿美元现金和负净债务。它的资产负债表比万事达卡公司（MA）等最成熟的同行要强大得多。现在是PayPal充分利用这笔资金来扩展其平台的时候了，特别是在国际上，我们已经在上次投资者演示中尝到了这一点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3484de41ef449aa085877ee9374fa00\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"648\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Investor Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：投资者介绍</blockquote> On September 7th, it was announced thatPayPal was acquiring Paidy, which uses artificial intelligence to find out the creditworthiness of its users and offers payment instalment plans. This is just one example of howPayPal can enter new markets and expand its footprint. Much like I argued before with Shopify,PayPal can now leverage Paidy to also push its other payment platforms into the Japanese market. I am very excited to see what other acquisitionsPayPal will make.<blockquote>9月7日，PayPal宣布收购Paidy，该公司使用人工智能来了解用户的信用度，并提供支付分期付款计划。这只是PayPal如何进入新市场并扩大其足迹的一个例子。就像我之前与Shopify争论的那样，PayPal现在可以利用Paidy将其其他支付平台推向日本市场。我很高兴看到PayPal还会进行哪些其他收购。</blockquote> Takeaway<blockquote>外卖</blockquote> In conclusion, and referring back to the thesis summary, I see no material reason why shares ofPayPal should continue to depreciate. Exogenous factors haven't changed, competition has always been tough and the company is still on track to deliver on its medium and long term growth targets.PayPal offers investors growth at a reasonable price, and that is hard to come by these days.<blockquote>总之，回到论文摘要，我认为PayPal的股价没有理由继续贬值。外生因素没有改变，竞争一直很激烈，公司仍有望实现中长期增长目标。PayPal以合理的价格为投资者提供增长，而这在当今很难实现。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal: Time To Go All In<blockquote>PayPal：是时候全力以赴了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal: Time To Go All In<blockquote>PayPal：是时候全力以赴了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-11-22 11:14\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>PayPal has fallen over 30% since its ATH due to poor guidance and increased competition concerns.</li> <li>I argue that PayPal is still on track to achieve its long-term goals, and competition, albeit fierce, is manageable.</li> <li>The potential of Venmo and PayPal's future acquisition are what keep me coming back for more.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71b7d55858c35eda92a04deae062ef8b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">South_agency/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>由于指导不力和竞争担忧加剧，PayPal自ATH以来股价已下跌超过30%。</li><li>我认为PayPal仍在实现其长期目标的轨道上，竞争尽管激烈，但是可控的。</li><li>Venmo和PayPal未来收购的潜力让我不断回来购买更多。</li></ul>South_agency/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> Thesis Summary<blockquote>论文摘要</blockquote> Seven months ago, we analyzedPayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) and concluded that our target price of $425 for 2025 made the $266 purchase give a compound return of 10.5% per year. At the time, we were forecasting revenue, earnings, and PE ratios to calculate the target price.<blockquote>七个月前，我们分析了PayPal Holdings Inc.(PYPL)，得出的结论是，我们2025年425美元的目标价使得266美元的收购每年复合回报率为10.5%。当时，我们正在预测收入、盈利和市盈率来计算目标价。</blockquote> Although our forecasted PE ratio based on its relation to Earnings suggested the price was a little high for that point in time, it seemed that the market was granting the company a higher valuation given its remarkably consistent track record.<blockquote>尽管我们根据其与收益的关系预测市盈率表明当时的价格有点高，但鉴于该公司非常一致的业绩记录，市场似乎给予了该公司更高的估值。</blockquote> It took very little smoothing to set historical revenue growth at a consistent 17.9% per year, and as for the earnings margin, net income was very close to 13.55% of revenue almost every year. The only two exceptions were one negative, in 2014, and one positive, in 2020, where the margin was 19.6%.<blockquote>几乎不需要任何平滑就将历史收入增长率设定在每年17.9%，至于利润率，净利润几乎每年都非常接近收入的13.55%。仅有的两个例外是2014年的负利率和2020年的正利率，利润率为19.6%。</blockquote> As the year 2021 has progressed,PayPal has dropped significantly, all the way down to $200. At this price, the $425 target for 2025 would give you a compound annual return of 20.1%. I can think of three possible explanations for this collapse:<blockquote>随着2021年的进展，PayPal大幅下跌，一路跌至200美元。按照这个价格，2025年425美元的目标将为您带来20.1%的复合年回报率。对于这种崩溃，我可以想到三种可能的解释：</blockquote> a) The price was ahead of its time, and 2020 over performance got investors thinking growth had accelerated and that the price would go higher than we were forecasting. Ultimately, an investment relying on growth that has not yet materialized requires higher returns, and if the company is growing 18%, the investor wants to make at least 18% on their investment.<blockquote>a)价格领先于时代，2020年的表现让投资者认为增长已经加速，价格将高于我们的预期。最终，依赖尚未实现的增长的投资需要更高的回报，如果公司增长18%，投资者希望从投资中获得至少18%的回报。</blockquote> b) There is a perceived risk of earnings growth slowing down significantly based on the company's performance after looking at financial reports from the first three quarters of 2021.<blockquote>b)在查看2021年前三季度的财务报告后，根据公司的业绩，认为盈利增长存在大幅放缓的风险。</blockquote> c) There is a perceived risk of growth slowing down significantly due to factors outside of the company's financial performance, based on a qualitative analysis of the company and its addressable market.<blockquote>c)根据对公司及其目标市场的定性分析，由于公司财务业绩以外的因素，存在增长显着放缓的风险。</blockquote> If the correct answer is A, this is a great investment. If the logic feels compelling enough you should buy now and enjoy your 20% return over the years. I am going to focus on the other two scenarios, where we need to think about whether the business itself is actually in trouble.<blockquote>如果正确答案是A，这是一项伟大的投资。如果逻辑足够令人信服，您应该现在购买并享受多年来20%的回报。我将重点讨论另外两种情况，在这两种情况下，我们需要考虑企业本身是否真的陷入了困境。</blockquote> 2021 Financial Performance<blockquote>二零二一年财务表现</blockquote> Our previous analysis onPayPal was based on revenue and net income, as per GAAP figures up to 2020. Here I am going to look at the results of the first three quarters of 2021 to see if the results are disappointing.<blockquote>我们之前对PayPal的分析是基于截至2020年的GAAP数据的收入和净利润。这里我要看看2021年前三季度的业绩，看看业绩是否令人失望。</blockquote> First off, we have revenue growth. Indeed, quarter on quarter it doesn't look great, but this is not uncommon inPayPal's history of seasonality. If you look at the chart below, you can see that revenue grows the most in the fourth quarter, always drops in the first (QoQ), and has mixed results from the first to the third. Also, to continue on the 17.9% growth trend, revenue in the fourth quarter would only have to be %6.65 billion less than 8% higher than in the third quarter.<blockquote>首先，我们有收入增长。事实上，环比来看，情况并不乐观，但这在PayPal的季节性历史中并不罕见。如果你看下图，你可以看到第四季度收入增长最多，第一季度（环比）总是下降，并且从第一季度到第三季度的结果好坏参半。此外，要继续保持17.9%的增长趋势，第四季度的收入只需达到66.5亿美元，比第三季度增长不到8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fba8cbaa13348012cc020a72a4ecd1c\" tg-width=\"283\" tg-height=\"170\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。</blockquote> It appears that all is good with revenue growth so far and 2021 looks to deliver once again on the near 20% revenue growth figure. Let's take a look at earnings. So far in the first 3 quarters of 2021, earnings have been, just as in 2020, much higher than the previous trend of 13.5% of revenue. So far, earnings are between 17.5 and 19% of revenue, with an average of 18.3%. It is true that this was 19.6% in 2020, but it also means that we can no longer reasonably consider 2020 an anomaly in that respect.<blockquote>到目前为止，收入增长似乎一切顺利，2021年有望再次实现近20%的收入增长。我们来看看收益。到目前为止，2021年前3个季度的盈利与2020年一样，远高于之前占收入13.5%的趋势。到目前为止，盈利占收入的17.5%至19%之间，平均为18.3%。诚然，2020年这一比例为19.6%，但这也意味着我们不能再合理地认为2020年在这方面是一个异常现象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65fdec19cf0bd680067fed0f3ac34f92\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"290\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。2021年的数字是基于前3个季度的估计。</blockquote> Looking at these figures, the only thing that could worry investors is year-on-year growth rates. If you look at the table below you can see the growth rates of revenue and earnings for&nbsp;Q3 2021, YTD or YoY and with the 1-year growth rate or the 2-year CAGR.<blockquote>从这些数字来看，投资者唯一可能担心的是同比增长率。如果您查看下表，您可以看到2021年第三季度、年初至今或同比的收入和收益增长率以及1年增长率或2年CAGR。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c30583b007f9682b8b5c78496897f61d\" tg-width=\"281\" tg-height=\"145\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。</blockquote> This gives a clue of what might be the problem, as year-on-year growth rates in the third quarter look significantly worse than average, especially in earnings growth. However, if you take into account that 2020 Q3 was an exceptionally good quarter, it seems likePayPal is being punished for how good results were in 2020. If you look at the 2-year growth, results seem great, especially in earnings (it is also true that Q3 2019 was exceptionally bad, but one argument is as valid as the other).<blockquote>这为问题可能出在哪里提供了线索，因为第三季度的同比增长率看起来明显低于平均水平，尤其是在盈利增长方面。然而，如果你考虑到2020年第三季度是一个非常好的季度，那么PayPal似乎因2020年的良好业绩而受到惩罚。如果你看看两年的增长，结果似乎很好，尤其是在盈利方面（2019年第三季度确实异常糟糕，但一个论点和另一个一样有效）。</blockquote> To illustrate this point, imagine that net income had been lower in 2020. The chart below contains the same figures as the one before, except that 2020 net income has been arbitrarily reduced to fit a more growing pattern.<blockquote>为了说明这一点，想象一下2020年净利润较低。下图包含与上一张相同的数字，只是2020年净利润被任意减少以适应更增长的模式。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b14c61672e1db2d56752a6a07d858b3\" tg-width=\"483\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. *The figure from 2014 has been removed and the net income figure from 2020 has been reduced to illustrate the point explained above. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.<blockquote>资料来源：作者基于财务报告的工作。百万美元的项目。*二零一四年的数字已删除，而二零二零年的净收入数字已减少，以说明上文所解释的要点。2021年的数字是基于前3个季度的估计。</blockquote> The result would be a much more promising-looking trend altogether. When taking short-term growth figures into account when valuing a company one should wonder if they are punishing bad results or actually punishing good results. All considered it doesn't seem like there is a reasonable cause in the observed financial performance ofPayPal that should make you think prospects are worse than they were 9 months ago.<blockquote>结果将是一个看起来更有希望的趋势。当在评估一家公司时考虑短期增长数据时，人们应该怀疑他们是在惩罚糟糕的结果还是实际上在惩罚好的结果。总的来说，观察到的PayPal财务表现似乎没有合理的原因让您认为前景比9个月前更糟糕。</blockquote> Is market growth a concern?<blockquote>市场增长令人担忧吗？</blockquote> With that said, the only other possible explanation is that, indeed, there are external factors that will prevent&nbsp;PayPal from expanding at the previously perceived rate. The stock was recently&nbsp;downgraded by Bernstein, claiming \"market share growth concerns\". The stock has slid over 30% since it reached an ATH at $300 makingPayPal's valuation that much more attractive. But how does this weigh against concerns over market growth?<blockquote>话虽如此，唯一其他可能的解释是，确实有外部因素会阻止PayPal以之前认为的速度扩张。该股最近被伯恩斯坦下调评级，声称“市场份额增长担忧”。自达到300美元的ATH以来，该股已下跌超过30%，这使得PayPal的估值更具吸引力。但这如何抵消对市场增长的担忧呢？</blockquote> \"Fintech\" is no longer a novel concept, and in the last few years, we have seen hundreds if not thousands of companies come out with similar versions of whatPayPal offers. To say the market is saturated, might even be an understatement, butPayPal remains the king of the hill.<blockquote>“金融科技”不再是一个新颖的概念，在过去几年中，我们已经看到数百家甚至数千家公司推出了PayPal提供的类似版本。说市场已经饱和甚至可能是一种保守的说法，但PayPal仍然是山中之王。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/462ce82e5652c8762836c4ef98dcdee5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: datanyze.com<blockquote>资料来源：datanyze.com</blockquote> In terms of Payment Processing Software,PayPal has over 50% of the market, and I say that because Braintree, which takes the fifth position, is also owned byPayPal. The problemPayPal faces though, isn't coming from the hundreds of startups and newly IPO'd companies, but by the large players which we also see on his list.<blockquote>在支付处理软件方面，PayPal拥有超过50%的市场份额，我这么说是因为排名第五的Braintree也归PayPal所有。然而，PayPal面临的问题并不是来自数百家初创公司和新上市的公司，而是来自我们在他的名单上也看到的大公司。</blockquote> This includes AmazonPay, Shopify Inc.'s (SHOP) ShopPay and even Google Pay. Arguably, some of these services have an advantage, in that their payment offerings complement other services. Shopify, for example, incentivizes its users and merchants to use its payment processing platforms, and Google has the advantage of being deeply embedded in a lot of the things we do.<blockquote>这包括AmazonPay、Shopify Inc.(SHOP)的ShopPay甚至Google Pay。可以说，其中一些服务具有优势，因为它们的支付产品补充了其他服务。例如，Shopify激励其用户和商家使用其支付处理平台，而谷歌的优势在于深入参与我们所做的许多事情。</blockquote> In this regard, Shopify and Amazon, for example, have a big advantage, in that they control where much of the money online is spent and can use this to their advantage. However, the payment system is not just limited to eCommerce.PayPal has a presence in many other areas, such as international transfers/transactions and physical payments.PayPal can be used as a bank, and there are also advantages to being a complete financial service focused company, just like there are advantages to having an ecosystem of buyers and sellers on your platform.<blockquote>例如，在这方面，Shopify和亚马逊有很大的优势，因为他们控制着大部分在线资金的花费，并可以利用这一点。然而，支付系统不仅仅局限于电子商务。PayPal在许多其他领域都有业务，如国际转账/交易和实物支付。PayPal可以用作银行，作为一家专注于完整金融服务的公司也有优势，就像在你的平台上拥有买家和卖家的生态系统也有优势一样。</blockquote> Yes, the market is saturated, and growth will become a challenge, but I still believe thatPayPal can succeed long-term and I'll explain why.<blockquote>是的，市场已经饱和，增长将成为一个挑战，但我仍然相信PayPal可以长期成功，我会解释原因。</blockquote> Two more reasons I will hold on toPayPal<blockquote>还有两个我会坚持下去的理由PayPal</blockquote> My analysis continues to support thatPayPal is on track to deliver the growth and returns I expected weeks ago. In this regard,PayPal offers growth at a reasonable price. It is a profitable and well-established company that is going nowhere.<blockquote>我的分析继续支持PayPal有望实现我几周前预期的增长和回报。在这方面，PayPal以合理的价格提供增长。这是一家盈利且信誉良好的公司，但却一事无成。</blockquote> More specifically though, two factors make me especially bullish onPayPal; Venmo and the power of its Balance Sheet.<blockquote>更具体地说，有两个因素让我特别看好PayPal；Venmo及其资产负债表的力量。</blockquote> Starting with Venmo, this is perhaps the biggest reason why I thinkPayPal still holds plenty of value and growth potential. Venmo is one of the most popular payment Apps in the United States. In 2020 over&nbsp;$159 billion in transactions&nbsp;were processed through Venmo in 2020, and the App is on track to deliver $900 million in revenues in 2021 according to the latest earnings call.<blockquote>从Venmo开始，这也许是我认为PayPal仍然拥有巨大价值和增长潜力的最大原因。Venmo是美国最受欢迎的支付应用之一。根据最新的收益看涨期权，2020年通过Venmo处理了超过1590亿美元的交易，该应用程序有望在2021年实现9亿美元的收入。</blockquote> But Venmo is barely scratching the surface of what it can achieve, both in terms of growth and monetization. When it comes to the latter, we can see that Venmo can still come a long way in terms of monetization if we compare it to Square Inc.'s (SQ) CashApp.According to estimates, CashApp produced $54 per user in 2020, while Venmo only made $12 from each active user. There are slight differences in transaction costs, but most of this comes from the fact that CashApp is used more for cryptocurrency transactions. This is something Venmo can easily replicate.<blockquote>但无论是在增长还是货币化方面，Venmo都只是触及了其所能实现的表面。谈到后者，如果我们将Venmo与Square Inc.(SQ)的CashApp进行比较，我们可以看到Venmo在货币化方面仍有很长的路要走。据估计，CashApp在2020年为每个用户带来了54美元的收入，而Venmo仅从每个活跃用户身上获得了12美元的收入。交易成本略有差异，但这大部分来自于CashApp更多地用于加密货币交易。这是Venmo可以轻松复制的。</blockquote> In terms of growth though, Venmo can go much farther. Originally, Venmo was conceived as a peer-to-peer payment system, but this is quickly moving to businesses too. Amazon.com (AMZN)&nbsp;will be accepting Venmo payments&nbsp;starting in 2022, and I believe this will see significant success.<blockquote>不过，就增长而言，Venmo可以走得更远。最初，Venmo被认为是一个点对点支付系统，但这也很快转移到企业。亚马逊(AMZN)将从2022年开始接受Venmo支付，我相信这将取得巨大成功。</blockquote> Venmo has a place in the mobile phones of 65 million people, and this is somethingPayPal can leverage to its advantage moving forward.<blockquote>Venmo在6500万人的手机中占有一席之地，这是PayPal可以利用的优势。</blockquote> The other big reason I will continue to holdPayPal is its incredible Balance Sheet, and all the growth opportunities this opens.PayPal has $13.29 billion in cash and negative net debt. It has a much stronger balance sheet than its most established peers, such as Mastercard Corporation (MA). It's now time forPayPal to put this money to good use to expand its platform, especially internationally, something we already got a taste of in the last investor presentation.<blockquote>我将继续持有PayPal的另一个重要原因是其令人难以置信的资产负债表，以及由此带来的所有增长机会。PayPal拥有132.9亿美元现金和负净债务。它的资产负债表比万事达卡公司（MA）等最成熟的同行要强大得多。现在是PayPal充分利用这笔资金来扩展其平台的时候了，特别是在国际上，我们已经在上次投资者演示中尝到了这一点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3484de41ef449aa085877ee9374fa00\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"648\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Investor Presentation<blockquote>资料来源：投资者介绍</blockquote> On September 7th, it was announced thatPayPal was acquiring Paidy, which uses artificial intelligence to find out the creditworthiness of its users and offers payment instalment plans. This is just one example of howPayPal can enter new markets and expand its footprint. Much like I argued before with Shopify,PayPal can now leverage Paidy to also push its other payment platforms into the Japanese market. I am very excited to see what other acquisitionsPayPal will make.<blockquote>9月7日，PayPal宣布收购Paidy，该公司使用人工智能来了解用户的信用度，并提供支付分期付款计划。这只是PayPal如何进入新市场并扩大其足迹的一个例子。就像我之前与Shopify争论的那样，PayPal现在可以利用Paidy将其其他支付平台推向日本市场。我很高兴看到PayPal还会进行哪些其他收购。</blockquote> Takeaway<blockquote>外卖</blockquote> In conclusion, and referring back to the thesis summary, I see no material reason why shares ofPayPal should continue to depreciate. Exogenous factors haven't changed, competition has always been tough and the company is still on track to deliver on its medium and long term growth targets.PayPal offers investors growth at a reasonable price, and that is hard to come by these days.<blockquote>总之，回到论文摘要，我认为PayPal的股价没有理由继续贬值。外生因素没有改变，竞争一直很激烈，公司仍有望实现中长期增长目标。PayPal以合理的价格为投资者提供增长，而这在当今很难实现。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4470923-paypal-time-to-go-all-in\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4470923-paypal-time-to-go-all-in","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158506816","content_text":"Summary\n\nPayPal has fallen over 30% since its ATH due to poor guidance and increased competition concerns.\nI argue that PayPal is still on track to achieve its long-term goals, and competition, albeit fierce, is manageable.\nThe potential of Venmo and PayPal's future acquisition are what keep me coming back for more.\n\nSouth_agency/E+ via Getty Images\nThesis Summary\nSeven months ago, we analyzedPayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) and concluded that our target price of $425 for 2025 made the $266 purchase give a compound return of 10.5% per year. At the time, we were forecasting revenue, earnings, and PE ratios to calculate the target price.\nAlthough our forecasted PE ratio based on its relation to Earnings suggested the price was a little high for that point in time, it seemed that the market was granting the company a higher valuation given its remarkably consistent track record.\nIt took very little smoothing to set historical revenue growth at a consistent 17.9% per year, and as for the earnings margin, net income was very close to 13.55% of revenue almost every year. The only two exceptions were one negative, in 2014, and one positive, in 2020, where the margin was 19.6%.\nAs the year 2021 has progressed,PayPal has dropped significantly, all the way down to $200. At this price, the $425 target for 2025 would give you a compound annual return of 20.1%. I can think of three possible explanations for this collapse:\na) The price was ahead of its time, and 2020 over performance got investors thinking growth had accelerated and that the price would go higher than we were forecasting. Ultimately, an investment relying on growth that has not yet materialized requires higher returns, and if the company is growing 18%, the investor wants to make at least 18% on their investment.\nb) There is a perceived risk of earnings growth slowing down significantly based on the company's performance after looking at financial reports from the first three quarters of 2021.\nc) There is a perceived risk of growth slowing down significantly due to factors outside of the company's financial performance, based on a qualitative analysis of the company and its addressable market.\nIf the correct answer is A, this is a great investment. If the logic feels compelling enough you should buy now and enjoy your 20% return over the years. I am going to focus on the other two scenarios, where we need to think about whether the business itself is actually in trouble.\n2021 Financial Performance\nOur previous analysis onPayPal was based on revenue and net income, as per GAAP figures up to 2020. Here I am going to look at the results of the first three quarters of 2021 to see if the results are disappointing.\nFirst off, we have revenue growth. Indeed, quarter on quarter it doesn't look great, but this is not uncommon inPayPal's history of seasonality. If you look at the chart below, you can see that revenue grows the most in the fourth quarter, always drops in the first (QoQ), and has mixed results from the first to the third. Also, to continue on the 17.9% growth trend, revenue in the fourth quarter would only have to be %6.65 billion less than 8% higher than in the third quarter.\nSource: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions.\nIt appears that all is good with revenue growth so far and 2021 looks to deliver once again on the near 20% revenue growth figure. Let's take a look at earnings. So far in the first 3 quarters of 2021, earnings have been, just as in 2020, much higher than the previous trend of 13.5% of revenue. So far, earnings are between 17.5 and 19% of revenue, with an average of 18.3%. It is true that this was 19.6% in 2020, but it also means that we can no longer reasonably consider 2020 an anomaly in that respect.\nSource: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.\nLooking at these figures, the only thing that could worry investors is year-on-year growth rates. If you look at the table below you can see the growth rates of revenue and earnings for Q3 2021, YTD or YoY and with the 1-year growth rate or the 2-year CAGR.\nSource: Author's work based on financial reports.\nThis gives a clue of what might be the problem, as year-on-year growth rates in the third quarter look significantly worse than average, especially in earnings growth. However, if you take into account that 2020 Q3 was an exceptionally good quarter, it seems likePayPal is being punished for how good results were in 2020. If you look at the 2-year growth, results seem great, especially in earnings (it is also true that Q3 2019 was exceptionally bad, but one argument is as valid as the other).\nTo illustrate this point, imagine that net income had been lower in 2020. The chart below contains the same figures as the one before, except that 2020 net income has been arbitrarily reduced to fit a more growing pattern.\nSource: Author's work based on financial reports. Items in $millions. *The figure from 2014 has been removed and the net income figure from 2020 has been reduced to illustrate the point explained above. 2021 figure is an estimate based on first 3 quarters.\nThe result would be a much more promising-looking trend altogether. When taking short-term growth figures into account when valuing a company one should wonder if they are punishing bad results or actually punishing good results. All considered it doesn't seem like there is a reasonable cause in the observed financial performance ofPayPal that should make you think prospects are worse than they were 9 months ago.\nIs market growth a concern?\nWith that said, the only other possible explanation is that, indeed, there are external factors that will prevent PayPal from expanding at the previously perceived rate. The stock was recently downgraded by Bernstein, claiming \"market share growth concerns\". The stock has slid over 30% since it reached an ATH at $300 makingPayPal's valuation that much more attractive. But how does this weigh against concerns over market growth?\n\"Fintech\" is no longer a novel concept, and in the last few years, we have seen hundreds if not thousands of companies come out with similar versions of whatPayPal offers. To say the market is saturated, might even be an understatement, butPayPal remains the king of the hill.\nSource: datanyze.com\nIn terms of Payment Processing Software,PayPal has over 50% of the market, and I say that because Braintree, which takes the fifth position, is also owned byPayPal. The problemPayPal faces though, isn't coming from the hundreds of startups and newly IPO'd companies, but by the large players which we also see on his list.\nThis includes AmazonPay, Shopify Inc.'s (SHOP) ShopPay and even Google Pay. Arguably, some of these services have an advantage, in that their payment offerings complement other services. Shopify, for example, incentivizes its users and merchants to use its payment processing platforms, and Google has the advantage of being deeply embedded in a lot of the things we do.\nIn this regard, Shopify and Amazon, for example, have a big advantage, in that they control where much of the money online is spent and can use this to their advantage. However, the payment system is not just limited to eCommerce.PayPal has a presence in many other areas, such as international transfers/transactions and physical payments.PayPal can be used as a bank, and there are also advantages to being a complete financial service focused company, just like there are advantages to having an ecosystem of buyers and sellers on your platform.\nYes, the market is saturated, and growth will become a challenge, but I still believe thatPayPal can succeed long-term and I'll explain why.\nTwo more reasons I will hold on toPayPal\nMy analysis continues to support thatPayPal is on track to deliver the growth and returns I expected weeks ago. In this regard,PayPal offers growth at a reasonable price. It is a profitable and well-established company that is going nowhere.\nMore specifically though, two factors make me especially bullish onPayPal; Venmo and the power of its Balance Sheet.\nStarting with Venmo, this is perhaps the biggest reason why I thinkPayPal still holds plenty of value and growth potential. Venmo is one of the most popular payment Apps in the United States. In 2020 over $159 billion in transactions were processed through Venmo in 2020, and the App is on track to deliver $900 million in revenues in 2021 according to the latest earnings call.\nBut Venmo is barely scratching the surface of what it can achieve, both in terms of growth and monetization. When it comes to the latter, we can see that Venmo can still come a long way in terms of monetization if we compare it to Square Inc.'s (SQ) CashApp.According to estimates, CashApp produced $54 per user in 2020, while Venmo only made $12 from each active user. There are slight differences in transaction costs, but most of this comes from the fact that CashApp is used more for cryptocurrency transactions. This is something Venmo can easily replicate.\nIn terms of growth though, Venmo can go much farther. Originally, Venmo was conceived as a peer-to-peer payment system, but this is quickly moving to businesses too. Amazon.com (AMZN) will be accepting Venmo payments starting in 2022, and I believe this will see significant success.\nVenmo has a place in the mobile phones of 65 million people, and this is somethingPayPal can leverage to its advantage moving forward.\nThe other big reason I will continue to holdPayPal is its incredible Balance Sheet, and all the growth opportunities this opens.PayPal has $13.29 billion in cash and negative net debt. It has a much stronger balance sheet than its most established peers, such as Mastercard Corporation (MA). It's now time forPayPal to put this money to good use to expand its platform, especially internationally, something we already got a taste of in the last investor presentation.\nSource: Investor Presentation\nOn September 7th, it was announced thatPayPal was acquiring Paidy, which uses artificial intelligence to find out the creditworthiness of its users and offers payment instalment plans. This is just one example of howPayPal can enter new markets and expand its footprint. Much like I argued before with Shopify,PayPal can now leverage Paidy to also push its other payment platforms into the Japanese market. I am very excited to see what other acquisitionsPayPal will make.\nTakeaway\nIn conclusion, and referring back to the thesis summary, I see no material reason why shares ofPayPal should continue to depreciate. Exogenous factors haven't changed, competition has always been tough and the company is still on track to deliver on its medium and long term growth targets.PayPal offers investors growth at a reasonable price, and that is hard to come by these days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":84,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":2,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}