Just 5 stocks account for 33% of the S&P rally; Goldman says don't worry: At the Open_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

Just 5 stocks account for 33% of the S&P rally; Goldman says don't worry: At the Open

Seeking Alpha2021-12-13

Equity market breadth has narrowed sharply, to a place where stocks have historically seen lower-than-average returns and deep drawdowns, Goldman Sachs says. "Five stocks accounted for 51% of the S&P ...

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galvinpangg
·2021-12-14
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·2021-12-13
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Goldman says don't worry: At the Open</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJust 5 stocks account for 33% of the S&P rally; Goldman says don't worry: At the Open\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-13 20:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3779363-just-5-stocks-account-for-33-of-the-sp-rally-goldman-says-dont-worry><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Equity market breadth has narrowed sharply, to a place where stocks have historically seen lower-than-average returns and deep drawdowns, Goldman Sachs says.\n\"Five stocks accounted for 51% of the S&P ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3779363-just-5-stocks-account-for-33-of-the-sp-rally-goldman-says-dont-worry\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"GS","symbol_name":"高盛","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3779363-just-5-stocks-account-for-33-of-the-sp-rally-goldman-says-dont-worry","article_id":"1156796477","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156796477","pubTimestamp":1639398014,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Equity market breadth has narrowed sharply, to a place where stocks have historically seen lower-tha","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"GS":"高盛"},"translate_title":"只有5只股票占标普上涨的33%；高盛称不用担心：在公开场合","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"GS":0.9},"content_text":"Equity market breadth has narrowed sharply, to a place where stocks have historically seen lower-than-average returns and deep drawdowns, Goldman Sachs says.\n\"Five stocks accounted for 51% of the S&P 500’s return since the end of April. Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT), Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL), Nvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA)and Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)together account for more than one third (920 bp) of the S&P 500’s(SP500)(NYSEARCA:SPY)26% YTD return,\" David Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist and team write in a note. \"After contributing over double their starting weight to the index’s return, these stocks now make up 22% of the S&P 500 by market cap, a 4 pp increase from the start of the year.\"\nCause and symptom: Following a period of similar market breadth \"equities have historically exhibited weaker-than average returns and deeper drawdowns,\" Kostin says.\nBut \"it has historically taken 4 additional months before a sustained increase in breadth takes hold and market leadership flips towards the previous laggards,\" he says. \"Record index concentration is both a cause and a symptom of a narrow market.\"\n\"The market-cap weight of the 10 largest stocks in the index has increased for each of the past 7 years and now registers at 31%, the highest level since at least 1980.\"\nStick with growth, for now. It's unlikely there will be a near-term recession, earnings and margins are improving vs. expectations and nominal and real rates are will be below historical norms, even if they rise, Goldman says.\n\"While 'unknown unknowns' cause the largest drawdowns and by their nature are impossible to assess in advance, the macro environment does not suggest drawdown risk is elevated in the coming months,' Kostin adds.\n\"We continue to recommend investors own high growth, high margin stocks,\" he says. \"These stocks have performed well in recent months and this should continue provided narrowing breadth persists.\"\n\"Such firms trade at only a small premium to similarly high growth companies with low or negative margins. High margins are a signal of quality and indicate these stocks are likely to outperform their low margin counterparts amid an uncertain macro backdrop and tightening financial conditions.\"\nThe view is different from BofA's team, who think the concentration of stocks in the Nasdaq(COMP.IND)meanssell the rips like it was 2000.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":604400163,"gmtCreate":1639434354124,"gmtModify":1639434354329,"author":{"id":"3574511579214221","authorId":"3574511579214221","name":"galvinpangg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f92bc06f60d6b2cd382440f29eea3a45","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574511579214221","authorIdStr":"3574511579214221"},"htmlText":"Why is that so","listText":"Why is that so","text":"Why is that so","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604400163","repostId":1156796477,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156796477","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639398014,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156796477?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 20:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Just 5 stocks account for 33% of the S&P rally; Goldman says don't worry: At the Open<blockquote>仅5只股票就占标普涨幅的33%；高盛表示不用担心：在开盘时</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156796477","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Equity market breadth has narrowed sharply, to a place where stocks have historically seen lower-tha","content":"<p><ul>  <li>Equity market breadth has narrowed sharply, to a place where stocks have historically seen lower-than-average returns and deep drawdowns, Goldman Sachs says.</li>  <li>\"Five stocks accounted for 51% of the S&amp;P 500’s return since the end of April. Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT), Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL), Nvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA)and Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)together account for more than one third (920 bp) of the S&amp;P 500’s(SP500)(NYSEARCA:SPY)26% YTD return,\" David Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist and team write in a note. \"After contributing over double their starting weight to the index’s return, these stocks now make up 22% of the S&amp;P 500 by market cap, a 4 pp increase from the start of the year.\"</li>  <li><b>Cause and symptom:</b>&nbsp;Following a period of similar market breadth \"equities have historically exhibited weaker-than average returns and deeper drawdowns,\" Kostin says.</li>  <li>But&nbsp;\"it has historically taken 4 additional months before a sustained increase in breadth takes hold and market leadership flips towards the previous laggards,\" he says. \"Record index concentration is both a cause and a symptom of a narrow market.\"</li>  <li>\"The market-cap weight of the 10 largest stocks in the index has increased for each of the past 7 years and now registers at 31%, the highest level since at least 1980.\"</li>  <li><b>Stick with growth, for now.</b>&nbsp;It's unlikely there will be a near-term recession, earnings and margins are improving vs. expectations and nominal and real rates are will be below historical norms, even if they rise, Goldman says.</li>  <li>\"While 'unknown unknowns' cause the largest drawdowns and by their nature are impossible to assess in advance, the macro environment does not suggest drawdown risk is elevated in the coming months,' Kostin adds.</li>  <li>\"We continue to recommend investors own high growth, high margin stocks,\" he says. \"These stocks have performed well in recent months and this should continue provided narrowing breadth persists.\"</li>  <li>\"Such firms trade at only a small premium to similarly high growth companies with low or negative margins. High margins are a signal of quality and indicate these stocks are likely to outperform their low margin counterparts amid an uncertain macro backdrop and tightening financial conditions.\"</li>  <li>The view is different from BofA's team, who think the concentration of stocks in the Nasdaq(COMP.IND)meanssell the rips like it was 2000.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aa678c8763cf6466a8a0ca71a1cb59d\" tg-width=\"753\" tg-height=\"526\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>高盛表示，股市广度已大幅收窄，历史上股市回报率低于平均水平且大幅下跌。</li><li>“自4月底以来，五只股票占标普500回报的51%。微软（纳斯达克：MSFT）、Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOG）（纳斯达克：GOOGL）、苹果（纳斯达克：AAPL）、英伟达（纳斯达克：NVDA）和特斯拉（纳斯达克：TSLA）合计占标普500(SP500)(NYSEARCA：SPDR标普500指数ETF)年初至今26%回报率的三分之一以上（920个基点），”首席美国股票策略师和团队David Kostin在一份报告中写道。“这些股票对指数回报的贡献是初始权重的两倍多，按市值计算，目前占标普500的22%，比年初增加了4个百分点。”</li><li><b>病因和症状：</b>科斯汀表示，在经历了一段类似的市场广度之后，“股票的回报率历来低于平均水平，跌幅更大”。</li><li>但“从历史上看，在广度持续增长、市场领导地位转向之前的落后者之前，还需要4个月的时间”，他表示。“创纪录的指数集中度既是市场窄幅的原因，也是其症状。”</li><li>“过去7年，该指数中10只最大股票的市值权重每年都在增加，目前为31%，至少是1980年以来的最高水平。”</li><li><b>暂时坚持增长。</b>高盛表示，近期不太可能出现衰退，盈利和利润率正在改善，名义利率和实际利率即使上升也将低于历史正常水平。</li><li>科斯汀补充道：“虽然‘未知的未知因素’会导致最大的回撤，而且就其性质而言不可能提前评估，但宏观环境并不表明未来几个月回撤风险会上升。”</li><li>“我们继续建议投资者持有高增长、高利润的股票，”他说。“这些股票近几个月表现良好，如果宽度持续收窄，这种情况应该会继续下去。”</li><li>“与利润率较低或为负的类似高增长公司相比，此类公司的交易价格仅略有溢价。高利润率是质量的信号，表明在不确定的宏观背景和金融状况收紧的情况下，这些股票的表现可能会优于低利润率股票。”</li><li>这种观点与美国银行团队不同，他们认为纳斯达克(COMP.IND)股票的集中意味着像2000年一样抛售rips。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJust 5 stocks account for 33% of the S&P rally; Goldman says don't worry: At the Open<blockquote>仅5只股票就占标普涨幅的33%；高盛表示不用担心：在开盘时</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-13 20:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul>  <li>Equity market breadth has narrowed sharply, to a place where stocks have historically seen lower-than-average returns and deep drawdowns, Goldman Sachs says.</li>  <li>\"Five stocks accounted for 51% of the S&amp;P 500’s return since the end of April. Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT), Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL), Nvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA)and Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)together account for more than one third (920 bp) of the S&amp;P 500’s(SP500)(NYSEARCA:SPY)26% YTD return,\" David Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist and team write in a note. \"After contributing over double their starting weight to the index’s return, these stocks now make up 22% of the S&amp;P 500 by market cap, a 4 pp increase from the start of the year.\"</li>  <li><b>Cause and symptom:</b>&nbsp;Following a period of similar market breadth \"equities have historically exhibited weaker-than average returns and deeper drawdowns,\" Kostin says.</li>  <li>But&nbsp;\"it has historically taken 4 additional months before a sustained increase in breadth takes hold and market leadership flips towards the previous laggards,\" he says. \"Record index concentration is both a cause and a symptom of a narrow market.\"</li>  <li>\"The market-cap weight of the 10 largest stocks in the index has increased for each of the past 7 years and now registers at 31%, the highest level since at least 1980.\"</li>  <li><b>Stick with growth, for now.</b>&nbsp;It's unlikely there will be a near-term recession, earnings and margins are improving vs. expectations and nominal and real rates are will be below historical norms, even if they rise, Goldman says.</li>  <li>\"While 'unknown unknowns' cause the largest drawdowns and by their nature are impossible to assess in advance, the macro environment does not suggest drawdown risk is elevated in the coming months,' Kostin adds.</li>  <li>\"We continue to recommend investors own high growth, high margin stocks,\" he says. \"These stocks have performed well in recent months and this should continue provided narrowing breadth persists.\"</li>  <li>\"Such firms trade at only a small premium to similarly high growth companies with low or negative margins. High margins are a signal of quality and indicate these stocks are likely to outperform their low margin counterparts amid an uncertain macro backdrop and tightening financial conditions.\"</li>  <li>The view is different from BofA's team, who think the concentration of stocks in the Nasdaq(COMP.IND)meanssell the rips like it was 2000.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aa678c8763cf6466a8a0ca71a1cb59d\" tg-width=\"753\" tg-height=\"526\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>高盛表示，股市广度已大幅收窄，历史上股市回报率低于平均水平且大幅下跌。</li><li>“自4月底以来，五只股票占标普500回报的51%。微软（纳斯达克：MSFT）、Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOG）（纳斯达克：GOOGL）、苹果（纳斯达克：AAPL）、英伟达（纳斯达克：NVDA）和特斯拉（纳斯达克：TSLA）合计占标普500(SP500)(NYSEARCA：SPDR标普500指数ETF)年初至今26%回报率的三分之一以上（920个基点），”首席美国股票策略师和团队David Kostin在一份报告中写道。“这些股票对指数回报的贡献是初始权重的两倍多，按市值计算，目前占标普500的22%，比年初增加了4个百分点。”</li><li><b>病因和症状：</b>科斯汀表示，在经历了一段类似的市场广度之后，“股票的回报率历来低于平均水平，跌幅更大”。</li><li>但“从历史上看，在广度持续增长、市场领导地位转向之前的落后者之前，还需要4个月的时间”，他表示。“创纪录的指数集中度既是市场窄幅的原因，也是其症状。”</li><li>“过去7年，该指数中10只最大股票的市值权重每年都在增加，目前为31%，至少是1980年以来的最高水平。”</li><li><b>暂时坚持增长。</b>高盛表示，近期不太可能出现衰退，盈利和利润率正在改善，名义利率和实际利率即使上升也将低于历史正常水平。</li><li>科斯汀补充道：“虽然‘未知的未知因素’会导致最大的回撤，而且就其性质而言不可能提前评估，但宏观环境并不表明未来几个月回撤风险会上升。”</li><li>“我们继续建议投资者持有高增长、高利润的股票，”他说。“这些股票近几个月表现良好，如果宽度持续收窄，这种情况应该会继续下去。”</li><li>“与利润率较低或为负的类似高增长公司相比，此类公司的交易价格仅略有溢价。高利润率是质量的信号，表明在不确定的宏观背景和金融状况收紧的情况下，这些股票的表现可能会优于低利润率股票。”</li><li>这种观点与美国银行团队不同，他们认为纳斯达克(COMP.IND)股票的集中意味着像2000年一样抛售rips。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3779363-just-5-stocks-account-for-33-of-the-sp-rally-goldman-says-dont-worry\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GS":"高盛"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3779363-just-5-stocks-account-for-33-of-the-sp-rally-goldman-says-dont-worry","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156796477","content_text":"Equity market breadth has narrowed sharply, to a place where stocks have historically seen lower-than-average returns and deep drawdowns, Goldman Sachs says.\n\"Five stocks accounted for 51% of the S&P 500’s return since the end of April. Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT), Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL), Nvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA)and Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)together account for more than one third (920 bp) of the S&P 500’s(SP500)(NYSEARCA:SPY)26% YTD return,\" David Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist and team write in a note. \"After contributing over double their starting weight to the index’s return, these stocks now make up 22% of the S&P 500 by market cap, a 4 pp increase from the start of the year.\"\nCause and symptom: Following a period of similar market breadth \"equities have historically exhibited weaker-than average returns and deeper drawdowns,\" Kostin says.\nBut \"it has historically taken 4 additional months before a sustained increase in breadth takes hold and market leadership flips towards the previous laggards,\" he says. \"Record index concentration is both a cause and a symptom of a narrow market.\"\n\"The market-cap weight of the 10 largest stocks in the index has increased for each of the past 7 years and now registers at 31%, the highest level since at least 1980.\"\nStick with growth, for now. It's unlikely there will be a near-term recession, earnings and margins are improving vs. expectations and nominal and real rates are will be below historical norms, even if they rise, Goldman says.\n\"While 'unknown unknowns' cause the largest drawdowns and by their nature are impossible to assess in advance, the macro environment does not suggest drawdown risk is elevated in the coming months,' Kostin adds.\n\"We continue to recommend investors own high growth, high margin stocks,\" he says. \"These stocks have performed well in recent months and this should continue provided narrowing breadth persists.\"\n\"Such firms trade at only a small premium to similarly high growth companies with low or negative margins. High margins are a signal of quality and indicate these stocks are likely to outperform their low margin counterparts amid an uncertain macro backdrop and tightening financial conditions.\"\nThe view is different from BofA's team, who think the concentration of stocks in the Nasdaq(COMP.IND)meanssell the rips like it was 2000.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":604299998,"gmtCreate":1639398501995,"gmtModify":1639398502453,"author":{"id":"3584779133668268","authorId":"3584779133668268","name":"NPC69","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47e7ac55312ae8dd1c9e7cb92adad089","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3584779133668268","authorIdStr":"3584779133668268"},"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604299998","repostId":1156796477,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156796477","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639398014,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156796477?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 20:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Just 5 stocks account for 33% of the S&P rally; Goldman says don't worry: At the Open<blockquote>仅5只股票就占标普涨幅的33%；高盛表示不用担心：在开盘时</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156796477","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Equity market breadth has narrowed sharply, to a place where stocks have historically seen lower-tha","content":"<p><ul>  <li>Equity market breadth has narrowed sharply, to a place where stocks have historically seen lower-than-average returns and deep drawdowns, Goldman Sachs says.</li>  <li>\"Five stocks accounted for 51% of the S&amp;P 500’s return since the end of April. Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT), Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL), Nvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA)and Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)together account for more than one third (920 bp) of the S&amp;P 500’s(SP500)(NYSEARCA:SPY)26% YTD return,\" David Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist and team write in a note. \"After contributing over double their starting weight to the index’s return, these stocks now make up 22% of the S&amp;P 500 by market cap, a 4 pp increase from the start of the year.\"</li>  <li><b>Cause and symptom:</b>&nbsp;Following a period of similar market breadth \"equities have historically exhibited weaker-than average returns and deeper drawdowns,\" Kostin says.</li>  <li>But&nbsp;\"it has historically taken 4 additional months before a sustained increase in breadth takes hold and market leadership flips towards the previous laggards,\" he says. \"Record index concentration is both a cause and a symptom of a narrow market.\"</li>  <li>\"The market-cap weight of the 10 largest stocks in the index has increased for each of the past 7 years and now registers at 31%, the highest level since at least 1980.\"</li>  <li><b>Stick with growth, for now.</b>&nbsp;It's unlikely there will be a near-term recession, earnings and margins are improving vs. expectations and nominal and real rates are will be below historical norms, even if they rise, Goldman says.</li>  <li>\"While 'unknown unknowns' cause the largest drawdowns and by their nature are impossible to assess in advance, the macro environment does not suggest drawdown risk is elevated in the coming months,' Kostin adds.</li>  <li>\"We continue to recommend investors own high growth, high margin stocks,\" he says. \"These stocks have performed well in recent months and this should continue provided narrowing breadth persists.\"</li>  <li>\"Such firms trade at only a small premium to similarly high growth companies with low or negative margins. High margins are a signal of quality and indicate these stocks are likely to outperform their low margin counterparts amid an uncertain macro backdrop and tightening financial conditions.\"</li>  <li>The view is different from BofA's team, who think the concentration of stocks in the Nasdaq(COMP.IND)meanssell the rips like it was 2000.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aa678c8763cf6466a8a0ca71a1cb59d\" tg-width=\"753\" tg-height=\"526\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>高盛表示，股市广度已大幅收窄，历史上股市回报率低于平均水平且大幅下跌。</li><li>“自4月底以来，五只股票占标普500回报的51%。微软（纳斯达克：MSFT）、Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOG）（纳斯达克：GOOGL）、苹果（纳斯达克：AAPL）、英伟达（纳斯达克：NVDA）和特斯拉（纳斯达克：TSLA）合计占标普500(SP500)(NYSEARCA：SPDR标普500指数ETF)年初至今26%回报率的三分之一以上（920个基点），”首席美国股票策略师和团队David Kostin在一份报告中写道。“这些股票对指数回报的贡献是初始权重的两倍多，按市值计算，目前占标普500的22%，比年初增加了4个百分点。”</li><li><b>病因和症状：</b>科斯汀表示，在经历了一段类似的市场广度之后，“股票的回报率历来低于平均水平，跌幅更大”。</li><li>但“从历史上看，在广度持续增长、市场领导地位转向之前的落后者之前，还需要4个月的时间”，他表示。“创纪录的指数集中度既是市场窄幅的原因，也是其症状。”</li><li>“过去7年，该指数中10只最大股票的市值权重每年都在增加，目前为31%，至少是1980年以来的最高水平。”</li><li><b>暂时坚持增长。</b>高盛表示，近期不太可能出现衰退，盈利和利润率正在改善，名义利率和实际利率即使上升也将低于历史正常水平。</li><li>科斯汀补充道：“虽然‘未知的未知因素’会导致最大的回撤，而且就其性质而言不可能提前评估，但宏观环境并不表明未来几个月回撤风险会上升。”</li><li>“我们继续建议投资者持有高增长、高利润的股票，”他说。“这些股票近几个月表现良好，如果宽度持续收窄，这种情况应该会继续下去。”</li><li>“与利润率较低或为负的类似高增长公司相比，此类公司的交易价格仅略有溢价。高利润率是质量的信号，表明在不确定的宏观背景和金融状况收紧的情况下，这些股票的表现可能会优于低利润率股票。”</li><li>这种观点与美国银行团队不同，他们认为纳斯达克(COMP.IND)股票的集中意味着像2000年一样抛售rips。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Just 5 stocks account for 33% of the S&P rally; Goldman says don't worry: At the Open<blockquote>仅5只股票就占标普涨幅的33%；高盛表示不用担心：在开盘时</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJust 5 stocks account for 33% of the S&P rally; Goldman says don't worry: At the Open<blockquote>仅5只股票就占标普涨幅的33%；高盛表示不用担心：在开盘时</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-13 20:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul>  <li>Equity market breadth has narrowed sharply, to a place where stocks have historically seen lower-than-average returns and deep drawdowns, Goldman Sachs says.</li>  <li>\"Five stocks accounted for 51% of the S&amp;P 500’s return since the end of April. Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT), Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL), Nvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA)and Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)together account for more than one third (920 bp) of the S&amp;P 500’s(SP500)(NYSEARCA:SPY)26% YTD return,\" David Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist and team write in a note. \"After contributing over double their starting weight to the index’s return, these stocks now make up 22% of the S&amp;P 500 by market cap, a 4 pp increase from the start of the year.\"</li>  <li><b>Cause and symptom:</b>&nbsp;Following a period of similar market breadth \"equities have historically exhibited weaker-than average returns and deeper drawdowns,\" Kostin says.</li>  <li>But&nbsp;\"it has historically taken 4 additional months before a sustained increase in breadth takes hold and market leadership flips towards the previous laggards,\" he says. \"Record index concentration is both a cause and a symptom of a narrow market.\"</li>  <li>\"The market-cap weight of the 10 largest stocks in the index has increased for each of the past 7 years and now registers at 31%, the highest level since at least 1980.\"</li>  <li><b>Stick with growth, for now.</b>&nbsp;It's unlikely there will be a near-term recession, earnings and margins are improving vs. expectations and nominal and real rates are will be below historical norms, even if they rise, Goldman says.</li>  <li>\"While 'unknown unknowns' cause the largest drawdowns and by their nature are impossible to assess in advance, the macro environment does not suggest drawdown risk is elevated in the coming months,' Kostin adds.</li>  <li>\"We continue to recommend investors own high growth, high margin stocks,\" he says. \"These stocks have performed well in recent months and this should continue provided narrowing breadth persists.\"</li>  <li>\"Such firms trade at only a small premium to similarly high growth companies with low or negative margins. High margins are a signal of quality and indicate these stocks are likely to outperform their low margin counterparts amid an uncertain macro backdrop and tightening financial conditions.\"</li>  <li>The view is different from BofA's team, who think the concentration of stocks in the Nasdaq(COMP.IND)meanssell the rips like it was 2000.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aa678c8763cf6466a8a0ca71a1cb59d\" tg-width=\"753\" tg-height=\"526\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>高盛表示，股市广度已大幅收窄，历史上股市回报率低于平均水平且大幅下跌。</li><li>“自4月底以来，五只股票占标普500回报的51%。微软（纳斯达克：MSFT）、Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOG）（纳斯达克：GOOGL）、苹果（纳斯达克：AAPL）、英伟达（纳斯达克：NVDA）和特斯拉（纳斯达克：TSLA）合计占标普500(SP500)(NYSEARCA：SPDR标普500指数ETF)年初至今26%回报率的三分之一以上（920个基点），”首席美国股票策略师和团队David Kostin在一份报告中写道。“这些股票对指数回报的贡献是初始权重的两倍多，按市值计算，目前占标普500的22%，比年初增加了4个百分点。”</li><li><b>病因和症状：</b>科斯汀表示，在经历了一段类似的市场广度之后，“股票的回报率历来低于平均水平，跌幅更大”。</li><li>但“从历史上看，在广度持续增长、市场领导地位转向之前的落后者之前，还需要4个月的时间”，他表示。“创纪录的指数集中度既是市场窄幅的原因，也是其症状。”</li><li>“过去7年，该指数中10只最大股票的市值权重每年都在增加，目前为31%，至少是1980年以来的最高水平。”</li><li><b>暂时坚持增长。</b>高盛表示，近期不太可能出现衰退，盈利和利润率正在改善，名义利率和实际利率即使上升也将低于历史正常水平。</li><li>科斯汀补充道：“虽然‘未知的未知因素’会导致最大的回撤，而且就其性质而言不可能提前评估，但宏观环境并不表明未来几个月回撤风险会上升。”</li><li>“我们继续建议投资者持有高增长、高利润的股票，”他说。“这些股票近几个月表现良好，如果宽度持续收窄，这种情况应该会继续下去。”</li><li>“与利润率较低或为负的类似高增长公司相比，此类公司的交易价格仅略有溢价。高利润率是质量的信号，表明在不确定的宏观背景和金融状况收紧的情况下，这些股票的表现可能会优于低利润率股票。”</li><li>这种观点与美国银行团队不同，他们认为纳斯达克(COMP.IND)股票的集中意味着像2000年一样抛售rips。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3779363-just-5-stocks-account-for-33-of-the-sp-rally-goldman-says-dont-worry\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GS":"高盛"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3779363-just-5-stocks-account-for-33-of-the-sp-rally-goldman-says-dont-worry","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156796477","content_text":"Equity market breadth has narrowed sharply, to a place where stocks have historically seen lower-than-average returns and deep drawdowns, Goldman Sachs says.\n\"Five stocks accounted for 51% of the S&P 500’s return since the end of April. Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT), Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL), Nvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA)and Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)together account for more than one third (920 bp) of the S&P 500’s(SP500)(NYSEARCA:SPY)26% YTD return,\" David Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist and team write in a note. \"After contributing over double their starting weight to the index’s return, these stocks now make up 22% of the S&P 500 by market cap, a 4 pp increase from the start of the year.\"\nCause and symptom: Following a period of similar market breadth \"equities have historically exhibited weaker-than average returns and deeper drawdowns,\" Kostin says.\nBut \"it has historically taken 4 additional months before a sustained increase in breadth takes hold and market leadership flips towards the previous laggards,\" he says. \"Record index concentration is both a cause and a symptom of a narrow market.\"\n\"The market-cap weight of the 10 largest stocks in the index has increased for each of the past 7 years and now registers at 31%, the highest level since at least 1980.\"\nStick with growth, for now. It's unlikely there will be a near-term recession, earnings and margins are improving vs. expectations and nominal and real rates are will be below historical norms, even if they rise, Goldman says.\n\"While 'unknown unknowns' cause the largest drawdowns and by their nature are impossible to assess in advance, the macro environment does not suggest drawdown risk is elevated in the coming months,' Kostin adds.\n\"We continue to recommend investors own high growth, high margin stocks,\" he says. \"These stocks have performed well in recent months and this should continue provided narrowing breadth persists.\"\n\"Such firms trade at only a small premium to similarly high growth companies with low or negative margins. High margins are a signal of quality and indicate these stocks are likely to outperform their low margin counterparts amid an uncertain macro backdrop and tightening financial conditions.\"\nThe view is different from BofA's team, who think the concentration of stocks in the Nasdaq(COMP.IND)meanssell the rips like it was 2000.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6964727,"gmtCreate":1639399850169,"gmtModify":1639399850205,"authorId":3578269878229068,"author":{"id":3578269878229068,"idStr":"3578269878229068","authorId":3578269878229068,"name":"javiery","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":604299998,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>ok</u>","text":"<u>ok</u>","html":"<u>ok</u>"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":21,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}