NIO Is Winning_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

NIO Is Winning

seekingalpha2021-06-18

Summary NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason. The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy. NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is...

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426

AllanHuat
·2021-06-19
[强]
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2
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hhyceline
·2021-06-19
[财迷] [流泪] [害羞]
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1
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ming22
·2021-06-19
Go nio [得意]
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瑞大神
·2021-06-18
记得去年nio的市值只有特斯拉的十分之一，而且基本是跟着特斯拉涨跌，目前已经达到八分之一，而且涨跌已经跑出独立行情，未来达到二分之一甚至赶超还远么？2025年见分晓吧
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- cherryxy:
  蔚来没有科技实力，估计2025念破产都不一定
  2021-06-18
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- cherryxy回复瑞大神:
  我不是算命的，我只是对电车的了解比你多一点
  2021-06-18
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- cherryxy回复瑞大神:
  你开心就好[微笑]
  2021-06-19
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特斯拉多头和PLTR多头
·2021-06-18
中国的未来有可能有未来，特斯拉可能是世界的未来。
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- cherryxy:
  No，蔚来差老远[捂脸]，没有核心技术，它的3000多个专利大部分都是内饰专利，你去看看国内的蔚来和特斯拉的招聘广告，蔚来招很多市场专员，特斯拉招的都是机械工程师，人工智能，质量工程师，我怕2025年蔚来就不见了
  2021-06-18
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- cherryxy:
  内饰专利不值钱
  2021-06-18
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- 瑞大神:
  不用叫我大爷，我没这个孙
  2021-06-19
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OCA
·2021-06-18
[财迷]
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winter_lee
·2021-06-18
model y一款车就卖的比蔚来全家更多，哪里来的勇气说蔚来赢了？
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瑞大神
·2021-06-18
特斯拉如果不做出改变，将会像三星对于智能手机一样的结果，未来智能电动车的赢家将会出现在中国，但目前说是蔚来已经成功还为时过早
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- Meshaarias72:
  Y
  2021-06-18
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- BettyT:
  的确
  2021-06-18
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- 特斯拉多头和PLTR多头回复瑞大神:
  大某某，你一般是不是只看国内信息
  2021-06-19
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Fandy2121
·2021-06-18
Great article[开心]
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liawsw
·2021-06-18
Nio[财迷]
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GoodLife25
·2021-06-18
It's true, but I hv sell all my Nio[流泪]
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960f93a
·2021-06-18
Joke, let's look at 10 yrs from now
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Mattsailor
·2021-06-18
[强]
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nctony
·2021-06-18
I'm holding it[财迷]
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AlphaSpiker
·2021-06-18
Buy Now Profit Later. Thats the theme now BNPL!!! [开心] [开心] [开心]
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2
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EagleE
·2021-06-18
Yesss! Go go go...! [开心]
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BenjaminAng
·2021-06-18
[财迷]
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TheChuaMerch
·2021-06-18
[微笑]
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EstherPang
·2021-06-18
希望NIO未来会更好
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- 向上学习:
  [微笑] [微笑]
  2021-06-19
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This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla .In ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"translate_title":"蔚来赢了","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9},"content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.\nThe company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.\nNIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.\n\nPonyWang/E+ via Getty Images\nNIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).\nIn addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.\nBusiness: Why NIO Wins\nNIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.\nDelivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.\nSource: Company\nLeveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.\nToday, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.\nOne of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.\nNIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.\nSource: Company\nAnother differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.\nSource: Company\nChinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.\nChina is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.\nBuying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.\nSource: Company\nThe company is pushing the envelope even further with NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.\nFinancials & Valuation\nNIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.\nThe company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.\nHowever, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited 2020 with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.\nSince NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).\nRisks\nThere are many risks associated with owning NIO.\nAlthough its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.\nNIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.\nNIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.\nAuto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.\nNIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.\nTakeaway\nNIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower 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