Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'

seekingalpha2021-06-05

Summary NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March. The company's innovative approach and...

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590

WayneLee
·2021-06-08
Very nice and informative article. 👍
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449ff09a
·2021-06-07
Hard to believe it’s going to $100
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1
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Zhengxi
·2021-06-07
Good
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Avestor
·2021-06-07
There’s potential.
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eeez
·2021-06-07
Plz comment
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- Piggys:
  Pls comment bacK too.
  2021-06-07
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Sweatheart
·2021-06-06
Yes, i believes it will be able to reach that price one day, is just a matter of time only. $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ have building their ecosystem, power swapping is definitely an attractive key point for buyer to consider of purchase.
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- Sephy:
  Yes but need longer time, now way overprice and their earnings will disappoint, chips supply still big problem.
  2021-06-21
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- JFZ:
  👍🏼
  2021-06-21
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- CHM_Jc:
  keep buy in and hold long . up 100 year end
  2021-06-19
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FrankieYeo
·2021-06-06
Got potential to reach
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CharlieAcv
·2021-06-06
Leaving a comment
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Howhowlee
·2021-06-06
🤔 well… let’s c!
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- Slee49:
  Sure [强]
  2021-06-06
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- alicegcw:
  Let c
  2021-06-10
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Kikiooi
·2021-06-06
Cool. Buy?
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3
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夜行星
·2021-06-06
Cool 😎
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1
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Starbucks
·2021-06-06
Yay! $NIO Inc.(NIO)$to the moon! [Happy] [Miser] [Miser]
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6
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- Nobi:
  nio stock is space rocket? haha 🚀
  2021-06-06
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NKT9493
·2021-06-06
It will become a trillion dollar company by 2030-2035
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- NKT9493:
  Yessss
  2021-06-06
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- FIREWORKS:
  very optimistic.
  2021-06-06
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redder13
·2021-06-06
Could be higher in 2025 if all pans out well. NIO Life if executed according to plan could be huge
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4
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Ziling
·2021-06-06
[Call]
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1
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Ultraviolet
·2021-06-06
Like an comment
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paxxie
·2021-06-06
like and comment thanks
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2
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- Ultraviolet:
  Pls reply as well
  2021-06-06
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Ziling
·2021-06-06
[Strong]
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BeeL
·2021-06-06
If not “If”, so “So When Leh”
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- TC88:
  hope so
  2021-06-08
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- BeeL:
  👍🏻
  2021-06-09
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RonnieSG
·2021-06-06
Possible. Have to wait for 2022
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We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-05 12:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nNIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.\nThe company's innovative approach and...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"NIO","symbol_name":"蔚来","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100","article_id":"1148130971","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148130971","pubTimestamp":1622866524,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fas","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"translate_title":"蔚来股票能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是‘何时’的问题而不是‘如果’的问题","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9},"content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.\nThe company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.\nWe believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.\n\nPhoto by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nDespite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).\nFounded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.\nA Trailblazer in Innovative Technology\nSource:ir.nio.com\nNIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the 181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are more than 226 battery swapping stations across China, with more on the way following a recent strategic partnership agreement between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.\nIn addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.\nTo further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently partnered with Mobileye – an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.\nNIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).\nSource: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nGlobal Expansion\nSource: ir.nio.com\nAnother catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the ES8, which currently retails at a starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the ET7, to follow in 2022.\nWith a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.\nNIO’s Historical Performance\nJust a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a capital injection of RMB 7 billion (approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.\nSource: Author, with data from ir.nio.com\nNIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the recently renewed manufacturing agreement with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.\nNIO vs. LI and XPEV\nSource: Finviz\nWe have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.\nConsidering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.\nBusiness Risks and Challenges\nAs mentioned in one of my previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.\nAnother imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.\nCompetition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.\nConclusion\nNIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":117063400,"gmtCreate":1623110502600,"gmtModify":1634036920680,"author":{"id":"3576105353976896","authorId":"3576105353976896","name":"WayneLee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/571e5508a0452df9ed11d0e2f3792da3","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576105353976896","authorIdStr":"3576105353976896"},"htmlText":"Very nice and informative article. 👍","listText":"Very nice and informative article. 👍","text":"Very nice and informative article. 👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/117063400","repostId":1148130971,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1148130971","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622866524,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148130971?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-05 12:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148130971","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fas","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li> <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li> <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\">Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>蔚来的股价在过去一年飙升了816%以上，在3月初的成长股抛售之前，在2月初达到了近62美元的峰值。</li><li>该公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪日益高涨，预计将提振该公司的估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来股价到2025年将飙升至160美元以上。</li></ul>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images新闻来自Getty Images</blockquote> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).<blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来已经在电动汽车行业狂热投资者中获得了国际关注。距离蔚来于2018年中期首次交付仅过去了短短三年，但许多人已经想知道其股价是否能达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的股价超过每股600美元，市值超过6000亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来有潜力在2025年之前突破每股100美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近60美元，根据上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日）计算，该目标价有超过35%的上涨潜力。</blockquote> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.<blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今在华销售和交付汽车已超过10万辆。该公司拥有一支由五款零排放、全电池驱动的车型组成的车队，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将他们的全球扩张计划变成了现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到100美元不再是“如果”的问题，而是“何时”的问题。</blockquote> A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology<blockquote>创新技术的开拓者</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\">Source:ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.<blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池交换技术“Power Swap”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车行驶里程通常有限的问题。与加油站类似，换电是一个电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池使蔚来汽车能够行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车平均行驶里程181英里的两倍多。蔚来车主可以选择订阅“电池即服务”（“BaaS”）套餐，这是一项按月订阅的服务，为蔚来车主根据个人需求提供电池升级的灵活选择。该公司目前提供标准75 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达310英里，增强型100 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达435英里；两者都可供蔚来车主在BaaS下按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个电池交换站，继蔚来与中石化最近达成战略合作协议后，更多的电池交换站正在建设中。蔚来的车辆还与当地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国164个城市提供的1,140个汽车充电站兼容，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.<blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以在更广泛的电动汽车和技术领域保持竞争力。自2016年以来，蔚来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，并于2018年在北京的公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对未来客运的承诺也通过EVE的开发得到了证明，EVE是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的NOMI AI（世界上第一个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.<blockquote>为了进一步推动自动驾驶技术的进步，蔚来最近与Mobileye合作，Mobileye是一家英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司，以开发“EyeQ芯片”而闻名，目前已被超过27家汽车制造商用于其辅助驾驶技术——开发和商业化不需要人机交互的驾驶自动化（即“4级”自动驾驶）。他们的合作预计将加速蔚来推出“自动驾驶即服务”（“ADaaS”）套餐，这是他们的自动驾驶技术“蔚来自动驾驶”（“NAD”）的每月订阅。然而，与特斯拉的“全自动驾驶”套件类似，预计将于2022年推出的NAD技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实使蔚来在通往4级自动驾驶的竞赛中与行业领导者特斯拉相提并论。蔚来车主将可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。如今上路的蔚来汽车超过10.2万辆，新的订阅套餐预计将产生8.4亿元人民币（1.32亿美元）的年销售额增量；假设大多数现有蔚来车主注册的平均车辆寿命为12年，该服务推出后的额外收入流价值约为100亿元人民币（16亿美元）。</blockquote> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).<blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的不断发展预计将在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求最大的细分市场之一，估计价值为1.6万亿美元。该市场6%的份额将为蔚来现有670亿美元的市值增加至少1000亿美元的估值，使其每股价值超过100美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的全电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长其海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占据上述市场6%以上的份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股股价超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量约为30万辆，总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\">Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（蔚来_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</blockquote> Global Expansion<blockquote>全球扩张</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">Source: ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.<blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破100美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直公开表示其全球扩张的意图，特别是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设首个海外销售及服务中心。该品牌在挪威的足迹将于2022年进一步扩大，将在Bergen、Stavanger、Trondheim和Kristiansand开设四家蔚来商店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将在欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是在挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为新蔚来车主提供该品牌赖以成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰SUV ES 8目前零售价约为67,000美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车ET 7将于2022年紧随其后。</blockquote> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.<blockquote>凭借在中国豪华电动汽车市场的良好销售记录，以及与全球公认的特斯拉相当的规格，蔚来没有理由不在海外取得成功。正如前面提到的，蔚来的车辆充满电后的行驶里程可达435英里，这使得它成为潜在的欧美车主的理想选择，他们正在寻找一个可靠的伴侣来陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的首选相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车不断增长的需求。</blockquote> NIO’s Historical Performance<blockquote>蔚来的历史表现</blockquote> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.<blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销量持续增长，但由于流动性问题，蔚来股价跌至2美元以下的历史低点。2020年年中，中国合肥市政府向蔚来注资70亿元人民币（约合10亿美元）。该安排导致创建了“蔚来中国”，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来90.36%的所有权权益，而“合肥战略投资者”联合体持有馀下9.64%。这种合作关系成为了公司的生命线；额外资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显着改善，这反映在其强劲的财务业绩和2020年夏季股价的上涨趋势上。截至2020年第二季度末，蔚来总收入环比增长171%，股价平均反弹近20%。该公司股价在2020年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均为15.40美元，并继续攀升至第四季度平均38.70美元。截至2021年3月31日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为50.97美元，并在2月份达到近62美元的峰值，是2018年IPO价格的10倍多。该公司目前的市值超过670亿美元，超过了其在纽约证券交易所上市时仅10亿美元的市值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.<blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在2月底成长型股票遭到抛售之前见顶以来，蔚来的基本面也只显示出稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级增长，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，几乎占2020年总交付量的50%。该公司继续展现出乐观的前景，4月份交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长超过125%。得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，蔚来在2021年第一季度的经营活动中也保持了正现金流，这些措施将其毛利率提高至19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者的毛利率相当。第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量将接近30万辆，这意味着总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）（每股18.60美元）。我们最近与合资企业“江淮汽车集团”（“江淮汽车”）续签的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的汽车销售预测，该协议将目前100,000辆的年产能提高到240,000辆；正在建设中的“NeoPark”亦预期将新增100万台的年产能，这进一步支持了我们对蔚来继续致力于发展其业务的积极展望。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为16.43倍，年收入约为420亿美元（第一季度收入年化为103.89亿美元），将相同比例应用于蔚来预测的2025财年总收入预计将产生市盈率8.7倍，股价超过160美元。</blockquote> NIO vs. LI and XPEV<blockquote>蔚来vs.LI和XPEV</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Finviz<blockquote>资料来源：Finviz</blockquote> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.<blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与其国内同行进行了比较，以衡量蔚来股价突破100美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.<blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于LI和XPEV，前者的市盈率应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到18.1倍（XPEV的中点），也将推动该公司当前股价上涨至51.50美元，基于上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日），这意味着22%的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来2025财年收入1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）或每股18.60美元的预测，即使是18.1倍的一半也足以使蔚来的股价在2025年突破160美元；我们认为，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为届时从运营中获得的现金和技术进步将使其走上电动汽车行业持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到2030年及以后，届时该品牌的4级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote> Business Risks and Challenges<blockquote>业务风险及挑战</blockquote> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.<blockquote>正如我在之前关于蔚来的一篇文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“HFCA法案”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB的检查要求；否则，上述事务所审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前由普华永道中天会计师事务所（LLP）进行审计，该事务所被列入PCAOB的拒绝访问名单。如果中国当局和PCAOB不能很快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会成为投资者的威慑因素，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.<blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是持续的全球芯片供应短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的每一项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距越来越大。蔚来也不例外地受到持续的芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，交付量逐月增加就证明了这一点；在蔚来4月份最新的交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长125%。</blockquote> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.<blockquote>近年来，电动汽车行业的竞争也愈演愈烈。在过去十年中，由于对气候变化的日益担忧以及传统汽油燃料汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的进入门槛也大幅降低；随着初始投资变得比2003年特斯拉更加合理，新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动的汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并保持在汽车行业内的竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期保持成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（此处进一步分析）。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.<blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌影响力，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合其生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略的能力，蔚来正在有效缩小与特斯拉在全球电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价中，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，这使其成为值得选择的股票。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-06-05 12:15\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li> <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li> <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\">Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>蔚来的股价在过去一年飙升了816%以上，在3月初的成长股抛售之前，在2月初达到了近62美元的峰值。</li><li>该公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪日益高涨，预计将提振该公司的估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来股价到2025年将飙升至160美元以上。</li></ul>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images新闻来自Getty Images</blockquote> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).<blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来已经在电动汽车行业狂热投资者中获得了国际关注。距离蔚来于2018年中期首次交付仅过去了短短三年，但许多人已经想知道其股价是否能达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的股价超过每股600美元，市值超过6000亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来有潜力在2025年之前突破每股100美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近60美元，根据上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日）计算，该目标价有超过35%的上涨潜力。</blockquote> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.<blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今在华销售和交付汽车已超过10万辆。该公司拥有一支由五款零排放、全电池驱动的车型组成的车队，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将他们的全球扩张计划变成了现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到100美元不再是“如果”的问题，而是“何时”的问题。</blockquote> A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology<blockquote>创新技术的开拓者</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\">Source:ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.<blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池交换技术“Power Swap”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车行驶里程通常有限的问题。与加油站类似，换电是一个电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池使蔚来汽车能够行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车平均行驶里程181英里的两倍多。蔚来车主可以选择订阅“电池即服务”（“BaaS”）套餐，这是一项按月订阅的服务，为蔚来车主根据个人需求提供电池升级的灵活选择。该公司目前提供标准75 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达310英里，增强型100 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达435英里；两者都可供蔚来车主在BaaS下按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个电池交换站，继蔚来与中石化最近达成战略合作协议后，更多的电池交换站正在建设中。蔚来的车辆还与当地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国164个城市提供的1,140个汽车充电站兼容，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.<blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以在更广泛的电动汽车和技术领域保持竞争力。自2016年以来，蔚来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，并于2018年在北京的公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对未来客运的承诺也通过EVE的开发得到了证明，EVE是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的NOMI AI（世界上第一个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.<blockquote>为了进一步推动自动驾驶技术的进步，蔚来最近与Mobileye合作，Mobileye是一家英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司，以开发“EyeQ芯片”而闻名，目前已被超过27家汽车制造商用于其辅助驾驶技术——开发和商业化不需要人机交互的驾驶自动化（即“4级”自动驾驶）。他们的合作预计将加速蔚来推出“自动驾驶即服务”（“ADaaS”）套餐，这是他们的自动驾驶技术“蔚来自动驾驶”（“NAD”）的每月订阅。然而，与特斯拉的“全自动驾驶”套件类似，预计将于2022年推出的NAD技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实使蔚来在通往4级自动驾驶的竞赛中与行业领导者特斯拉相提并论。蔚来车主将可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。如今上路的蔚来汽车超过10.2万辆，新的订阅套餐预计将产生8.4亿元人民币（1.32亿美元）的年销售额增量；假设大多数现有蔚来车主注册的平均车辆寿命为12年，该服务推出后的额外收入流价值约为100亿元人民币（16亿美元）。</blockquote> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).<blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的不断发展预计将在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求最大的细分市场之一，估计价值为1.6万亿美元。该市场6%的份额将为蔚来现有670亿美元的市值增加至少1000亿美元的估值，使其每股价值超过100美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的全电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长其海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占据上述市场6%以上的份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股股价超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量约为30万辆，总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\">Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（蔚来_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</blockquote> Global Expansion<blockquote>全球扩张</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">Source: ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.<blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破100美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直公开表示其全球扩张的意图，特别是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设首个海外销售及服务中心。该品牌在挪威的足迹将于2022年进一步扩大，将在Bergen、Stavanger、Trondheim和Kristiansand开设四家蔚来商店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将在欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是在挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为新蔚来车主提供该品牌赖以成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰SUV ES 8目前零售价约为67,000美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车ET 7将于2022年紧随其后。</blockquote> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.<blockquote>凭借在中国豪华电动汽车市场的良好销售记录，以及与全球公认的特斯拉相当的规格，蔚来没有理由不在海外取得成功。正如前面提到的，蔚来的车辆充满电后的行驶里程可达435英里，这使得它成为潜在的欧美车主的理想选择，他们正在寻找一个可靠的伴侣来陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的首选相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车不断增长的需求。</blockquote> NIO’s Historical Performance<blockquote>蔚来的历史表现</blockquote> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.<blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销量持续增长，但由于流动性问题，蔚来股价跌至2美元以下的历史低点。2020年年中，中国合肥市政府向蔚来注资70亿元人民币（约合10亿美元）。该安排导致创建了“蔚来中国”，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来90.36%的所有权权益，而“合肥战略投资者”联合体持有馀下9.64%。这种合作关系成为了公司的生命线；额外资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显着改善，这反映在其强劲的财务业绩和2020年夏季股价的上涨趋势上。截至2020年第二季度末，蔚来总收入环比增长171%，股价平均反弹近20%。该公司股价在2020年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均为15.40美元，并继续攀升至第四季度平均38.70美元。截至2021年3月31日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为50.97美元，并在2月份达到近62美元的峰值，是2018年IPO价格的10倍多。该公司目前的市值超过670亿美元，超过了其在纽约证券交易所上市时仅10亿美元的市值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.<blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在2月底成长型股票遭到抛售之前见顶以来，蔚来的基本面也只显示出稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级增长，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，几乎占2020年总交付量的50%。该公司继续展现出乐观的前景，4月份交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长超过125%。得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，蔚来在2021年第一季度的经营活动中也保持了正现金流，这些措施将其毛利率提高至19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者的毛利率相当。第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量将接近30万辆，这意味着总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）（每股18.60美元）。我们最近与合资企业“江淮汽车集团”（“江淮汽车”）续签的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的汽车销售预测，该协议将目前100,000辆的年产能提高到240,000辆；正在建设中的“NeoPark”亦预期将新增100万台的年产能，这进一步支持了我们对蔚来继续致力于发展其业务的积极展望。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为16.43倍，年收入约为420亿美元（第一季度收入年化为103.89亿美元），将相同比例应用于蔚来预测的2025财年总收入预计将产生市盈率8.7倍，股价超过160美元。</blockquote> NIO vs. LI and XPEV<blockquote>蔚来vs.LI和XPEV</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Finviz<blockquote>资料来源：Finviz</blockquote> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.<blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与其国内同行进行了比较，以衡量蔚来股价突破100美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.<blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于LI和XPEV，前者的市盈率应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到18.1倍（XPEV的中点），也将推动该公司当前股价上涨至51.50美元，基于上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日），这意味着22%的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来2025财年收入1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）或每股18.60美元的预测，即使是18.1倍的一半也足以使蔚来的股价在2025年突破160美元；我们认为，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为届时从运营中获得的现金和技术进步将使其走上电动汽车行业持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到2030年及以后，届时该品牌的4级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote> Business Risks and Challenges<blockquote>业务风险及挑战</blockquote> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.<blockquote>正如我在之前关于蔚来的一篇文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“HFCA法案”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB的检查要求；否则，上述事务所审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前由普华永道中天会计师事务所（LLP）进行审计，该事务所被列入PCAOB的拒绝访问名单。如果中国当局和PCAOB不能很快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会成为投资者的威慑因素，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.<blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是持续的全球芯片供应短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的每一项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距越来越大。蔚来也不例外地受到持续的芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，交付量逐月增加就证明了这一点；在蔚来4月份最新的交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长125%。</blockquote> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.<blockquote>近年来，电动汽车行业的竞争也愈演愈烈。在过去十年中，由于对气候变化的日益担忧以及传统汽油燃料汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的进入门槛也大幅降低；随着初始投资变得比2003年特斯拉更加合理，新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动的汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并保持在汽车行业内的竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期保持成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（此处进一步分析）。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.<blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌影响力，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合其生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略的能力，蔚来正在有效缩小与特斯拉在全球电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价中，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，这使其成为值得选择的股票。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148130971","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.\nThe company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.\nWe believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.\n\nPhoto by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nDespite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).\nFounded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.\nA Trailblazer in Innovative Technology\nSource:ir.nio.com\nNIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the 181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are more than 226 battery swapping stations across China, with more on the way following a recent strategic partnership agreement between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.\nIn addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.\nTo further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently partnered with Mobileye – an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.\nNIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).\nSource: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nGlobal Expansion\nSource: ir.nio.com\nAnother catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the ES8, which currently retails at a starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the ET7, to follow in 2022.\nWith a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.\nNIO’s Historical Performance\nJust a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a capital injection of RMB 7 billion (approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.\nSource: Author, with data from ir.nio.com\nNIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the recently renewed manufacturing agreement with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.\nNIO vs. LI and XPEV\nSource: Finviz\nWe have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.\nConsidering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.\nBusiness Risks and Challenges\nAs mentioned in one of my previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.\nAnother imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.\nCompetition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.\nConclusion\nNIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":114025348,"gmtCreate":1623037519884,"gmtModify":1634095979223,"author":{"id":"3569133365230412","authorId":"3569133365230412","name":"449ff09a","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3569133365230412","authorIdStr":"3569133365230412"},"htmlText":"Hard to believe it’s going to $100","listText":"Hard to believe it’s going to $100","text":"Hard to believe it’s going to $100","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114025348","repostId":1148130971,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1148130971","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622866524,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148130971?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-05 12:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148130971","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fas","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li> <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li> <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\">Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>蔚来的股价在过去一年飙升了816%以上，在3月初的成长股抛售之前，在2月初达到了近62美元的峰值。</li><li>该公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪日益高涨，预计将提振该公司的估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来股价到2025年将飙升至160美元以上。</li></ul>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images新闻来自Getty Images</blockquote> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).<blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来已经在电动汽车行业狂热投资者中获得了国际关注。距离蔚来于2018年中期首次交付仅过去了短短三年，但许多人已经想知道其股价是否能达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的股价超过每股600美元，市值超过6000亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来有潜力在2025年之前突破每股100美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近60美元，根据上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日）计算，该目标价有超过35%的上涨潜力。</blockquote> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.<blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今在华销售和交付汽车已超过10万辆。该公司拥有一支由五款零排放、全电池驱动的车型组成的车队，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将他们的全球扩张计划变成了现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到100美元不再是“如果”的问题，而是“何时”的问题。</blockquote> A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology<blockquote>创新技术的开拓者</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\">Source:ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.<blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池交换技术“Power Swap”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车行驶里程通常有限的问题。与加油站类似，换电是一个电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池使蔚来汽车能够行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车平均行驶里程181英里的两倍多。蔚来车主可以选择订阅“电池即服务”（“BaaS”）套餐，这是一项按月订阅的服务，为蔚来车主根据个人需求提供电池升级的灵活选择。该公司目前提供标准75 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达310英里，增强型100 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达435英里；两者都可供蔚来车主在BaaS下按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个电池交换站，继蔚来与中石化最近达成战略合作协议后，更多的电池交换站正在建设中。蔚来的车辆还与当地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国164个城市提供的1,140个汽车充电站兼容，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.<blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以在更广泛的电动汽车和技术领域保持竞争力。自2016年以来，蔚来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，并于2018年在北京的公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对未来客运的承诺也通过EVE的开发得到了证明，EVE是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的NOMI AI（世界上第一个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.<blockquote>为了进一步推动自动驾驶技术的进步，蔚来最近与Mobileye合作，Mobileye是一家英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司，以开发“EyeQ芯片”而闻名，目前已被超过27家汽车制造商用于其辅助驾驶技术——开发和商业化不需要人机交互的驾驶自动化（即“4级”自动驾驶）。他们的合作预计将加速蔚来推出“自动驾驶即服务”（“ADaaS”）套餐，这是他们的自动驾驶技术“蔚来自动驾驶”（“NAD”）的每月订阅。然而，与特斯拉的“全自动驾驶”套件类似，预计将于2022年推出的NAD技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实使蔚来在通往4级自动驾驶的竞赛中与行业领导者特斯拉相提并论。蔚来车主将可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。如今上路的蔚来汽车超过10.2万辆，新的订阅套餐预计将产生8.4亿元人民币（1.32亿美元）的年销售额增量；假设大多数现有蔚来车主注册的平均车辆寿命为12年，该服务推出后的额外收入流价值约为100亿元人民币（16亿美元）。</blockquote> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).<blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的不断发展预计将在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求最大的细分市场之一，估计价值为1.6万亿美元。该市场6%的份额将为蔚来现有670亿美元的市值增加至少1000亿美元的估值，使其每股价值超过100美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的全电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长其海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占据上述市场6%以上的份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股股价超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量约为30万辆，总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\">Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（蔚来_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</blockquote> Global Expansion<blockquote>全球扩张</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">Source: ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.<blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破100美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直公开表示其全球扩张的意图，特别是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设首个海外销售及服务中心。该品牌在挪威的足迹将于2022年进一步扩大，将在Bergen、Stavanger、Trondheim和Kristiansand开设四家蔚来商店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将在欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是在挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为新蔚来车主提供该品牌赖以成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰SUV ES 8目前零售价约为67,000美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车ET 7将于2022年紧随其后。</blockquote> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.<blockquote>凭借在中国豪华电动汽车市场的良好销售记录，以及与全球公认的特斯拉相当的规格，蔚来没有理由不在海外取得成功。正如前面提到的，蔚来的车辆充满电后的行驶里程可达435英里，这使得它成为潜在的欧美车主的理想选择，他们正在寻找一个可靠的伴侣来陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的首选相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车不断增长的需求。</blockquote> NIO’s Historical Performance<blockquote>蔚来的历史表现</blockquote> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.<blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销量持续增长，但由于流动性问题，蔚来股价跌至2美元以下的历史低点。2020年年中，中国合肥市政府向蔚来注资70亿元人民币（约合10亿美元）。该安排导致创建了“蔚来中国”，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来90.36%的所有权权益，而“合肥战略投资者”联合体持有馀下9.64%。这种合作关系成为了公司的生命线；额外资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显着改善，这反映在其强劲的财务业绩和2020年夏季股价的上涨趋势上。截至2020年第二季度末，蔚来总收入环比增长171%，股价平均反弹近20%。该公司股价在2020年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均为15.40美元，并继续攀升至第四季度平均38.70美元。截至2021年3月31日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为50.97美元，并在2月份达到近62美元的峰值，是2018年IPO价格的10倍多。该公司目前的市值超过670亿美元，超过了其在纽约证券交易所上市时仅10亿美元的市值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.<blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在2月底成长型股票遭到抛售之前见顶以来，蔚来的基本面也只显示出稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级增长，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，几乎占2020年总交付量的50%。该公司继续展现出乐观的前景，4月份交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长超过125%。得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，蔚来在2021年第一季度的经营活动中也保持了正现金流，这些措施将其毛利率提高至19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者的毛利率相当。第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量将接近30万辆，这意味着总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）（每股18.60美元）。我们最近与合资企业“江淮汽车集团”（“江淮汽车”）续签的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的汽车销售预测，该协议将目前100,000辆的年产能提高到240,000辆；正在建设中的“NeoPark”亦预期将新增100万台的年产能，这进一步支持了我们对蔚来继续致力于发展其业务的积极展望。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为16.43倍，年收入约为420亿美元（第一季度收入年化为103.89亿美元），将相同比例应用于蔚来预测的2025财年总收入预计将产生市盈率8.7倍，股价超过160美元。</blockquote> NIO vs. LI and XPEV<blockquote>蔚来vs.LI和XPEV</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Finviz<blockquote>资料来源：Finviz</blockquote> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.<blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与其国内同行进行了比较，以衡量蔚来股价突破100美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.<blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于LI和XPEV，前者的市盈率应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到18.1倍（XPEV的中点），也将推动该公司当前股价上涨至51.50美元，基于上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日），这意味着22%的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来2025财年收入1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）或每股18.60美元的预测，即使是18.1倍的一半也足以使蔚来的股价在2025年突破160美元；我们认为，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为届时从运营中获得的现金和技术进步将使其走上电动汽车行业持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到2030年及以后，届时该品牌的4级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote> Business Risks and Challenges<blockquote>业务风险及挑战</blockquote> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.<blockquote>正如我在之前关于蔚来的一篇文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“HFCA法案”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB的检查要求；否则，上述事务所审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前由普华永道中天会计师事务所（LLP）进行审计，该事务所被列入PCAOB的拒绝访问名单。如果中国当局和PCAOB不能很快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会成为投资者的威慑因素，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.<blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是持续的全球芯片供应短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的每一项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距越来越大。蔚来也不例外地受到持续的芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，交付量逐月增加就证明了这一点；在蔚来4月份最新的交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长125%。</blockquote> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.<blockquote>近年来，电动汽车行业的竞争也愈演愈烈。在过去十年中，由于对气候变化的日益担忧以及传统汽油燃料汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的进入门槛也大幅降低；随着初始投资变得比2003年特斯拉更加合理，新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动的汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并保持在汽车行业内的竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期保持成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（此处进一步分析）。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.<blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌影响力，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合其生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略的能力，蔚来正在有效缩小与特斯拉在全球电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价中，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，这使其成为值得选择的股票。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-06-05 12:15\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li> <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li> <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\">Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>蔚来的股价在过去一年飙升了816%以上，在3月初的成长股抛售之前，在2月初达到了近62美元的峰值。</li><li>该公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪日益高涨，预计将提振该公司的估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来股价到2025年将飙升至160美元以上。</li></ul>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images新闻来自Getty Images</blockquote> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).<blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来已经在电动汽车行业狂热投资者中获得了国际关注。距离蔚来于2018年中期首次交付仅过去了短短三年，但许多人已经想知道其股价是否能达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的股价超过每股600美元，市值超过6000亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来有潜力在2025年之前突破每股100美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近60美元，根据上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日）计算，该目标价有超过35%的上涨潜力。</blockquote> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.<blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今在华销售和交付汽车已超过10万辆。该公司拥有一支由五款零排放、全电池驱动的车型组成的车队，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将他们的全球扩张计划变成了现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到100美元不再是“如果”的问题，而是“何时”的问题。</blockquote> A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology<blockquote>创新技术的开拓者</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\">Source:ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.<blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池交换技术“Power Swap”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车行驶里程通常有限的问题。与加油站类似，换电是一个电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池使蔚来汽车能够行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车平均行驶里程181英里的两倍多。蔚来车主可以选择订阅“电池即服务”（“BaaS”）套餐，这是一项按月订阅的服务，为蔚来车主根据个人需求提供电池升级的灵活选择。该公司目前提供标准75 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达310英里，增强型100 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达435英里；两者都可供蔚来车主在BaaS下按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个电池交换站，继蔚来与中石化最近达成战略合作协议后，更多的电池交换站正在建设中。蔚来的车辆还与当地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国164个城市提供的1,140个汽车充电站兼容，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.<blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以在更广泛的电动汽车和技术领域保持竞争力。自2016年以来，蔚来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，并于2018年在北京的公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对未来客运的承诺也通过EVE的开发得到了证明，EVE是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的NOMI AI（世界上第一个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.<blockquote>为了进一步推动自动驾驶技术的进步，蔚来最近与Mobileye合作，Mobileye是一家英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司，以开发“EyeQ芯片”而闻名，目前已被超过27家汽车制造商用于其辅助驾驶技术——开发和商业化不需要人机交互的驾驶自动化（即“4级”自动驾驶）。他们的合作预计将加速蔚来推出“自动驾驶即服务”（“ADaaS”）套餐，这是他们的自动驾驶技术“蔚来自动驾驶”（“NAD”）的每月订阅。然而，与特斯拉的“全自动驾驶”套件类似，预计将于2022年推出的NAD技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实使蔚来在通往4级自动驾驶的竞赛中与行业领导者特斯拉相提并论。蔚来车主将可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。如今上路的蔚来汽车超过10.2万辆，新的订阅套餐预计将产生8.4亿元人民币（1.32亿美元）的年销售额增量；假设大多数现有蔚来车主注册的平均车辆寿命为12年，该服务推出后的额外收入流价值约为100亿元人民币（16亿美元）。</blockquote> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).<blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的不断发展预计将在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求最大的细分市场之一，估计价值为1.6万亿美元。该市场6%的份额将为蔚来现有670亿美元的市值增加至少1000亿美元的估值，使其每股价值超过100美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的全电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长其海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占据上述市场6%以上的份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股股价超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量约为30万辆，总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\">Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（蔚来_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</blockquote> Global Expansion<blockquote>全球扩张</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">Source: ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.<blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破100美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直公开表示其全球扩张的意图，特别是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设首个海外销售及服务中心。该品牌在挪威的足迹将于2022年进一步扩大，将在Bergen、Stavanger、Trondheim和Kristiansand开设四家蔚来商店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将在欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是在挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为新蔚来车主提供该品牌赖以成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰SUV ES 8目前零售价约为67,000美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车ET 7将于2022年紧随其后。</blockquote> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.<blockquote>凭借在中国豪华电动汽车市场的良好销售记录，以及与全球公认的特斯拉相当的规格，蔚来没有理由不在海外取得成功。正如前面提到的，蔚来的车辆充满电后的行驶里程可达435英里，这使得它成为潜在的欧美车主的理想选择，他们正在寻找一个可靠的伴侣来陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的首选相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车不断增长的需求。</blockquote> NIO’s Historical Performance<blockquote>蔚来的历史表现</blockquote> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.<blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销量持续增长，但由于流动性问题，蔚来股价跌至2美元以下的历史低点。2020年年中，中国合肥市政府向蔚来注资70亿元人民币（约合10亿美元）。该安排导致创建了“蔚来中国”，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来90.36%的所有权权益，而“合肥战略投资者”联合体持有馀下9.64%。这种合作关系成为了公司的生命线；额外资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显着改善，这反映在其强劲的财务业绩和2020年夏季股价的上涨趋势上。截至2020年第二季度末，蔚来总收入环比增长171%，股价平均反弹近20%。该公司股价在2020年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均为15.40美元，并继续攀升至第四季度平均38.70美元。截至2021年3月31日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为50.97美元，并在2月份达到近62美元的峰值，是2018年IPO价格的10倍多。该公司目前的市值超过670亿美元，超过了其在纽约证券交易所上市时仅10亿美元的市值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.<blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在2月底成长型股票遭到抛售之前见顶以来，蔚来的基本面也只显示出稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级增长，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，几乎占2020年总交付量的50%。该公司继续展现出乐观的前景，4月份交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长超过125%。得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，蔚来在2021年第一季度的经营活动中也保持了正现金流，这些措施将其毛利率提高至19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者的毛利率相当。第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量将接近30万辆，这意味着总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）（每股18.60美元）。我们最近与合资企业“江淮汽车集团”（“江淮汽车”）续签的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的汽车销售预测，该协议将目前100,000辆的年产能提高到240,000辆；正在建设中的“NeoPark”亦预期将新增100万台的年产能，这进一步支持了我们对蔚来继续致力于发展其业务的积极展望。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为16.43倍，年收入约为420亿美元（第一季度收入年化为103.89亿美元），将相同比例应用于蔚来预测的2025财年总收入预计将产生市盈率8.7倍，股价超过160美元。</blockquote> NIO vs. LI and XPEV<blockquote>蔚来vs.LI和XPEV</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Finviz<blockquote>资料来源：Finviz</blockquote> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.<blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与其国内同行进行了比较，以衡量蔚来股价突破100美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.<blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于LI和XPEV，前者的市盈率应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到18.1倍（XPEV的中点），也将推动该公司当前股价上涨至51.50美元，基于上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日），这意味着22%的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来2025财年收入1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）或每股18.60美元的预测，即使是18.1倍的一半也足以使蔚来的股价在2025年突破160美元；我们认为，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为届时从运营中获得的现金和技术进步将使其走上电动汽车行业持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到2030年及以后，届时该品牌的4级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote> Business Risks and Challenges<blockquote>业务风险及挑战</blockquote> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.<blockquote>正如我在之前关于蔚来的一篇文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“HFCA法案”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB的检查要求；否则，上述事务所审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前由普华永道中天会计师事务所（LLP）进行审计，该事务所被列入PCAOB的拒绝访问名单。如果中国当局和PCAOB不能很快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会成为投资者的威慑因素，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.<blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是持续的全球芯片供应短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的每一项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距越来越大。蔚来也不例外地受到持续的芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，交付量逐月增加就证明了这一点；在蔚来4月份最新的交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长125%。</blockquote> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.<blockquote>近年来，电动汽车行业的竞争也愈演愈烈。在过去十年中，由于对气候变化的日益担忧以及传统汽油燃料汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的进入门槛也大幅降低；随着初始投资变得比2003年特斯拉更加合理，新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动的汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并保持在汽车行业内的竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期保持成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（此处进一步分析）。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.<blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌影响力，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合其生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略的能力，蔚来正在有效缩小与特斯拉在全球电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价中，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，这使其成为值得选择的股票。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148130971","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.\nThe company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.\nWe believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.\n\nPhoto by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nDespite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).\nFounded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.\nA Trailblazer in Innovative Technology\nSource:ir.nio.com\nNIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the 181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are more than 226 battery swapping stations across China, with more on the way following a recent strategic partnership agreement between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.\nIn addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.\nTo further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently partnered with Mobileye – an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.\nNIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).\nSource: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nGlobal Expansion\nSource: ir.nio.com\nAnother catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the ES8, which currently retails at a starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the ET7, to follow in 2022.\nWith a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.\nNIO’s Historical Performance\nJust a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a capital injection of RMB 7 billion (approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.\nSource: Author, with data from ir.nio.com\nNIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the recently renewed manufacturing agreement with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.\nNIO vs. LI and XPEV\nSource: Finviz\nWe have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.\nConsidering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.\nBusiness Risks and Challenges\nAs mentioned in one of my previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.\nAnother imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.\nCompetition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.\nConclusion\nNIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":115447453,"gmtCreate":1623028824772,"gmtModify":1634096119148,"author":{"id":"3578560722862530","authorId":"3578560722862530","name":"Zhengxi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7376c500aadcdbb577b9a6da13c0d41","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3578560722862530","authorIdStr":"3578560722862530"},"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115447453","repostId":1148130971,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148130971","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622866524,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148130971?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-05 12:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148130971","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fas","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li> <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li> <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\">Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>蔚来的股价在过去一年飙升了816%以上，在3月初的成长股抛售之前，在2月初达到了近62美元的峰值。</li><li>该公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪日益高涨，预计将提振该公司的估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来股价到2025年将飙升至160美元以上。</li></ul>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images新闻来自Getty Images</blockquote> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).<blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来已经在电动汽车行业狂热投资者中获得了国际关注。距离蔚来于2018年中期首次交付仅过去了短短三年，但许多人已经想知道其股价是否能达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的股价超过每股600美元，市值超过6000亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来有潜力在2025年之前突破每股100美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近60美元，根据上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日）计算，该目标价有超过35%的上涨潜力。</blockquote> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.<blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今在华销售和交付汽车已超过10万辆。该公司拥有一支由五款零排放、全电池驱动的车型组成的车队，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将他们的全球扩张计划变成了现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到100美元不再是“如果”的问题，而是“何时”的问题。</blockquote> A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology<blockquote>创新技术的开拓者</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\">Source:ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.<blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池交换技术“Power Swap”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车行驶里程通常有限的问题。与加油站类似，换电是一个电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池使蔚来汽车能够行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车平均行驶里程181英里的两倍多。蔚来车主可以选择订阅“电池即服务”（“BaaS”）套餐，这是一项按月订阅的服务，为蔚来车主根据个人需求提供电池升级的灵活选择。该公司目前提供标准75 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达310英里，增强型100 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达435英里；两者都可供蔚来车主在BaaS下按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个电池交换站，继蔚来与中石化最近达成战略合作协议后，更多的电池交换站正在建设中。蔚来的车辆还与当地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国164个城市提供的1,140个汽车充电站兼容，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.<blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以在更广泛的电动汽车和技术领域保持竞争力。自2016年以来，蔚来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，并于2018年在北京的公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对未来客运的承诺也通过EVE的开发得到了证明，EVE是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的NOMI AI（世界上第一个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.<blockquote>为了进一步推动自动驾驶技术的进步，蔚来最近与Mobileye合作，Mobileye是一家英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司，以开发“EyeQ芯片”而闻名，目前已被超过27家汽车制造商用于其辅助驾驶技术——开发和商业化不需要人机交互的驾驶自动化（即“4级”自动驾驶）。他们的合作预计将加速蔚来推出“自动驾驶即服务”（“ADaaS”）套餐，这是他们的自动驾驶技术“蔚来自动驾驶”（“NAD”）的每月订阅。然而，与特斯拉的“全自动驾驶”套件类似，预计将于2022年推出的NAD技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实使蔚来在通往4级自动驾驶的竞赛中与行业领导者特斯拉相提并论。蔚来车主将可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。如今上路的蔚来汽车超过10.2万辆，新的订阅套餐预计将产生8.4亿元人民币（1.32亿美元）的年销售额增量；假设大多数现有蔚来车主注册的平均车辆寿命为12年，该服务推出后的额外收入流价值约为100亿元人民币（16亿美元）。</blockquote> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).<blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的不断发展预计将在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求最大的细分市场之一，估计价值为1.6万亿美元。该市场6%的份额将为蔚来现有670亿美元的市值增加至少1000亿美元的估值，使其每股价值超过100美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的全电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长其海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占据上述市场6%以上的份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股股价超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量约为30万辆，总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\">Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（蔚来_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</blockquote> Global Expansion<blockquote>全球扩张</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">Source: ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.<blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破100美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直公开表示其全球扩张的意图，特别是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设首个海外销售及服务中心。该品牌在挪威的足迹将于2022年进一步扩大，将在Bergen、Stavanger、Trondheim和Kristiansand开设四家蔚来商店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将在欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是在挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为新蔚来车主提供该品牌赖以成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰SUV ES 8目前零售价约为67,000美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车ET 7将于2022年紧随其后。</blockquote> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.<blockquote>凭借在中国豪华电动汽车市场的良好销售记录，以及与全球公认的特斯拉相当的规格，蔚来没有理由不在海外取得成功。正如前面提到的，蔚来的车辆充满电后的行驶里程可达435英里，这使得它成为潜在的欧美车主的理想选择，他们正在寻找一个可靠的伴侣来陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的首选相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车不断增长的需求。</blockquote> NIO’s Historical Performance<blockquote>蔚来的历史表现</blockquote> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.<blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销量持续增长，但由于流动性问题，蔚来股价跌至2美元以下的历史低点。2020年年中，中国合肥市政府向蔚来注资70亿元人民币（约合10亿美元）。该安排导致创建了“蔚来中国”，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来90.36%的所有权权益，而“合肥战略投资者”联合体持有馀下9.64%。这种合作关系成为了公司的生命线；额外资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显着改善，这反映在其强劲的财务业绩和2020年夏季股价的上涨趋势上。截至2020年第二季度末，蔚来总收入环比增长171%，股价平均反弹近20%。该公司股价在2020年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均为15.40美元，并继续攀升至第四季度平均38.70美元。截至2021年3月31日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为50.97美元，并在2月份达到近62美元的峰值，是2018年IPO价格的10倍多。该公司目前的市值超过670亿美元，超过了其在纽约证券交易所上市时仅10亿美元的市值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.<blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在2月底成长型股票遭到抛售之前见顶以来，蔚来的基本面也只显示出稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级增长，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，几乎占2020年总交付量的50%。该公司继续展现出乐观的前景，4月份交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长超过125%。得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，蔚来在2021年第一季度的经营活动中也保持了正现金流，这些措施将其毛利率提高至19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者的毛利率相当。第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量将接近30万辆，这意味着总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）（每股18.60美元）。我们最近与合资企业“江淮汽车集团”（“江淮汽车”）续签的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的汽车销售预测，该协议将目前100,000辆的年产能提高到240,000辆；正在建设中的“NeoPark”亦预期将新增100万台的年产能，这进一步支持了我们对蔚来继续致力于发展其业务的积极展望。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为16.43倍，年收入约为420亿美元（第一季度收入年化为103.89亿美元），将相同比例应用于蔚来预测的2025财年总收入预计将产生市盈率8.7倍，股价超过160美元。</blockquote> NIO vs. LI and XPEV<blockquote>蔚来vs.LI和XPEV</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Finviz<blockquote>资料来源：Finviz</blockquote> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.<blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与其国内同行进行了比较，以衡量蔚来股价突破100美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.<blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于LI和XPEV，前者的市盈率应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到18.1倍（XPEV的中点），也将推动该公司当前股价上涨至51.50美元，基于上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日），这意味着22%的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来2025财年收入1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）或每股18.60美元的预测，即使是18.1倍的一半也足以使蔚来的股价在2025年突破160美元；我们认为，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为届时从运营中获得的现金和技术进步将使其走上电动汽车行业持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到2030年及以后，届时该品牌的4级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote> Business Risks and Challenges<blockquote>业务风险及挑战</blockquote> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.<blockquote>正如我在之前关于蔚来的一篇文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“HFCA法案”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB的检查要求；否则，上述事务所审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前由普华永道中天会计师事务所（LLP）进行审计，该事务所被列入PCAOB的拒绝访问名单。如果中国当局和PCAOB不能很快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会成为投资者的威慑因素，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.<blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是持续的全球芯片供应短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的每一项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距越来越大。蔚来也不例外地受到持续的芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，交付量逐月增加就证明了这一点；在蔚来4月份最新的交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长125%。</blockquote> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.<blockquote>近年来，电动汽车行业的竞争也愈演愈烈。在过去十年中，由于对气候变化的日益担忧以及传统汽油燃料汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的进入门槛也大幅降低；随着初始投资变得比2003年特斯拉更加合理，新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动的汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并保持在汽车行业内的竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期保持成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（此处进一步分析）。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.<blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌影响力，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合其生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略的能力，蔚来正在有效缩小与特斯拉在全球电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价中，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，这使其成为值得选择的股票。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-06-05 12:15\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li> <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li> <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\">Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>蔚来的股价在过去一年飙升了816%以上，在3月初的成长股抛售之前，在2月初达到了近62美元的峰值。</li><li>该公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪日益高涨，预计将提振该公司的估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来股价到2025年将飙升至160美元以上。</li></ul>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images新闻来自Getty Images</blockquote> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).<blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来已经在电动汽车行业狂热投资者中获得了国际关注。距离蔚来于2018年中期首次交付仅过去了短短三年，但许多人已经想知道其股价是否能达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的股价超过每股600美元，市值超过6000亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来有潜力在2025年之前突破每股100美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近60美元，根据上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日）计算，该目标价有超过35%的上涨潜力。</blockquote> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.<blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今在华销售和交付汽车已超过10万辆。该公司拥有一支由五款零排放、全电池驱动的车型组成的车队，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将他们的全球扩张计划变成了现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到100美元不再是“如果”的问题，而是“何时”的问题。</blockquote> A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology<blockquote>创新技术的开拓者</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\">Source:ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.<blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池交换技术“Power Swap”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车行驶里程通常有限的问题。与加油站类似，换电是一个电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池使蔚来汽车能够行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车平均行驶里程181英里的两倍多。蔚来车主可以选择订阅“电池即服务”（“BaaS”）套餐，这是一项按月订阅的服务，为蔚来车主根据个人需求提供电池升级的灵活选择。该公司目前提供标准75 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达310英里，增强型100 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达435英里；两者都可供蔚来车主在BaaS下按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个电池交换站，继蔚来与中石化最近达成战略合作协议后，更多的电池交换站正在建设中。蔚来的车辆还与当地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国164个城市提供的1,140个汽车充电站兼容，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.<blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以在更广泛的电动汽车和技术领域保持竞争力。自2016年以来，蔚来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，并于2018年在北京的公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对未来客运的承诺也通过EVE的开发得到了证明，EVE是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的NOMI AI（世界上第一个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.<blockquote>为了进一步推动自动驾驶技术的进步，蔚来最近与Mobileye合作，Mobileye是一家英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司，以开发“EyeQ芯片”而闻名，目前已被超过27家汽车制造商用于其辅助驾驶技术——开发和商业化不需要人机交互的驾驶自动化（即“4级”自动驾驶）。他们的合作预计将加速蔚来推出“自动驾驶即服务”（“ADaaS”）套餐，这是他们的自动驾驶技术“蔚来自动驾驶”（“NAD”）的每月订阅。然而，与特斯拉的“全自动驾驶”套件类似，预计将于2022年推出的NAD技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实使蔚来在通往4级自动驾驶的竞赛中与行业领导者特斯拉相提并论。蔚来车主将可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。如今上路的蔚来汽车超过10.2万辆，新的订阅套餐预计将产生8.4亿元人民币（1.32亿美元）的年销售额增量；假设大多数现有蔚来车主注册的平均车辆寿命为12年，该服务推出后的额外收入流价值约为100亿元人民币（16亿美元）。</blockquote> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).<blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的不断发展预计将在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求最大的细分市场之一，估计价值为1.6万亿美元。该市场6%的份额将为蔚来现有670亿美元的市值增加至少1000亿美元的估值，使其每股价值超过100美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的全电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长其海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占据上述市场6%以上的份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股股价超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量约为30万辆，总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\">Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（蔚来_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</blockquote> Global Expansion<blockquote>全球扩张</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">Source: ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.<blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破100美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直公开表示其全球扩张的意图，特别是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设首个海外销售及服务中心。该品牌在挪威的足迹将于2022年进一步扩大，将在Bergen、Stavanger、Trondheim和Kristiansand开设四家蔚来商店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将在欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是在挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为新蔚来车主提供该品牌赖以成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰SUV ES 8目前零售价约为67,000美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车ET 7将于2022年紧随其后。</blockquote> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.<blockquote>凭借在中国豪华电动汽车市场的良好销售记录，以及与全球公认的特斯拉相当的规格，蔚来没有理由不在海外取得成功。正如前面提到的，蔚来的车辆充满电后的行驶里程可达435英里，这使得它成为潜在的欧美车主的理想选择，他们正在寻找一个可靠的伴侣来陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的首选相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车不断增长的需求。</blockquote> NIO’s Historical Performance<blockquote>蔚来的历史表现</blockquote> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.<blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销量持续增长，但由于流动性问题，蔚来股价跌至2美元以下的历史低点。2020年年中，中国合肥市政府向蔚来注资70亿元人民币（约合10亿美元）。该安排导致创建了“蔚来中国”，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来90.36%的所有权权益，而“合肥战略投资者”联合体持有馀下9.64%。这种合作关系成为了公司的生命线；额外资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显着改善，这反映在其强劲的财务业绩和2020年夏季股价的上涨趋势上。截至2020年第二季度末，蔚来总收入环比增长171%，股价平均反弹近20%。该公司股价在2020年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均为15.40美元，并继续攀升至第四季度平均38.70美元。截至2021年3月31日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为50.97美元，并在2月份达到近62美元的峰值，是2018年IPO价格的10倍多。该公司目前的市值超过670亿美元，超过了其在纽约证券交易所上市时仅10亿美元的市值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.<blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在2月底成长型股票遭到抛售之前见顶以来，蔚来的基本面也只显示出稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级增长，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，几乎占2020年总交付量的50%。该公司继续展现出乐观的前景，4月份交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长超过125%。得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，蔚来在2021年第一季度的经营活动中也保持了正现金流，这些措施将其毛利率提高至19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者的毛利率相当。第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量将接近30万辆，这意味着总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）（每股18.60美元）。我们最近与合资企业“江淮汽车集团”（“江淮汽车”）续签的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的汽车销售预测，该协议将目前100,000辆的年产能提高到240,000辆；正在建设中的“NeoPark”亦预期将新增100万台的年产能，这进一步支持了我们对蔚来继续致力于发展其业务的积极展望。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为16.43倍，年收入约为420亿美元（第一季度收入年化为103.89亿美元），将相同比例应用于蔚来预测的2025财年总收入预计将产生市盈率8.7倍，股价超过160美元。</blockquote> NIO vs. LI and XPEV<blockquote>蔚来vs.LI和XPEV</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Finviz<blockquote>资料来源：Finviz</blockquote> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.<blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与其国内同行进行了比较，以衡量蔚来股价突破100美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.<blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于LI和XPEV，前者的市盈率应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到18.1倍（XPEV的中点），也将推动该公司当前股价上涨至51.50美元，基于上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日），这意味着22%的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来2025财年收入1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）或每股18.60美元的预测，即使是18.1倍的一半也足以使蔚来的股价在2025年突破160美元；我们认为，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为届时从运营中获得的现金和技术进步将使其走上电动汽车行业持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到2030年及以后，届时该品牌的4级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote> Business Risks and Challenges<blockquote>业务风险及挑战</blockquote> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.<blockquote>正如我在之前关于蔚来的一篇文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“HFCA法案”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB的检查要求；否则，上述事务所审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前由普华永道中天会计师事务所（LLP）进行审计，该事务所被列入PCAOB的拒绝访问名单。如果中国当局和PCAOB不能很快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会成为投资者的威慑因素，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.<blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是持续的全球芯片供应短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的每一项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距越来越大。蔚来也不例外地受到持续的芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，交付量逐月增加就证明了这一点；在蔚来4月份最新的交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长125%。</blockquote> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.<blockquote>近年来，电动汽车行业的竞争也愈演愈烈。在过去十年中，由于对气候变化的日益担忧以及传统汽油燃料汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的进入门槛也大幅降低；随着初始投资变得比2003年特斯拉更加合理，新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动的汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并保持在汽车行业内的竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期保持成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（此处进一步分析）。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.<blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌影响力，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合其生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略的能力，蔚来正在有效缩小与特斯拉在全球电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价中，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，这使其成为值得选择的股票。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148130971","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.\nThe company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.\nWe believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.\n\nPhoto by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nDespite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).\nFounded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.\nA Trailblazer in Innovative Technology\nSource:ir.nio.com\nNIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the 181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are more than 226 battery swapping stations across China, with more on the way following a recent strategic partnership agreement between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.\nIn addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.\nTo further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently partnered with Mobileye – an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.\nNIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).\nSource: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nGlobal Expansion\nSource: ir.nio.com\nAnother catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the ES8, which currently retails at a starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the ET7, to follow in 2022.\nWith a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.\nNIO’s Historical Performance\nJust a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a capital injection of RMB 7 billion (approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.\nSource: Author, with data from ir.nio.com\nNIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the recently renewed manufacturing agreement with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.\nNIO vs. LI and XPEV\nSource: Finviz\nWe have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.\nConsidering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.\nBusiness Risks and Challenges\nAs mentioned in one of my previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.\nAnother imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.\nCompetition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.\nConclusion\nNIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":115271015,"gmtCreate":1623020089037,"gmtModify":1634096288399,"author":{"id":"3574810128035926","authorId":"3574810128035926","name":"Avestor","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f3c3d4807f1c348bda9590766e78f13","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574810128035926","authorIdStr":"3574810128035926"},"htmlText":"There’s potential.&nbsp;","listText":"There’s potential.&nbsp;","text":"There’s potential.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115271015","repostId":1148130971,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148130971","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622866524,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148130971?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-05 12:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148130971","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fas","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li> <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li> <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\">Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>蔚来的股价在过去一年飙升了816%以上，在3月初的成长股抛售之前，在2月初达到了近62美元的峰值。</li><li>该公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪日益高涨，预计将提振该公司的估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来股价到2025年将飙升至160美元以上。</li></ul>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images新闻来自Getty Images</blockquote> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).<blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来已经在电动汽车行业狂热投资者中获得了国际关注。距离蔚来于2018年中期首次交付仅过去了短短三年，但许多人已经想知道其股价是否能达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的股价超过每股600美元，市值超过6000亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来有潜力在2025年之前突破每股100美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近60美元，根据上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日）计算，该目标价有超过35%的上涨潜力。</blockquote> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.<blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今在华销售和交付汽车已超过10万辆。该公司拥有一支由五款零排放、全电池驱动的车型组成的车队，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将他们的全球扩张计划变成了现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到100美元不再是“如果”的问题，而是“何时”的问题。</blockquote> A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology<blockquote>创新技术的开拓者</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\">Source:ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.<blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池交换技术“Power Swap”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车行驶里程通常有限的问题。与加油站类似，换电是一个电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池使蔚来汽车能够行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车平均行驶里程181英里的两倍多。蔚来车主可以选择订阅“电池即服务”（“BaaS”）套餐，这是一项按月订阅的服务，为蔚来车主根据个人需求提供电池升级的灵活选择。该公司目前提供标准75 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达310英里，增强型100 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达435英里；两者都可供蔚来车主在BaaS下按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个电池交换站，继蔚来与中石化最近达成战略合作协议后，更多的电池交换站正在建设中。蔚来的车辆还与当地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国164个城市提供的1,140个汽车充电站兼容，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.<blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以在更广泛的电动汽车和技术领域保持竞争力。自2016年以来，蔚来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，并于2018年在北京的公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对未来客运的承诺也通过EVE的开发得到了证明，EVE是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的NOMI AI（世界上第一个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.<blockquote>为了进一步推动自动驾驶技术的进步，蔚来最近与Mobileye合作，Mobileye是一家英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司，以开发“EyeQ芯片”而闻名，目前已被超过27家汽车制造商用于其辅助驾驶技术——开发和商业化不需要人机交互的驾驶自动化（即“4级”自动驾驶）。他们的合作预计将加速蔚来推出“自动驾驶即服务”（“ADaaS”）套餐，这是他们的自动驾驶技术“蔚来自动驾驶”（“NAD”）的每月订阅。然而，与特斯拉的“全自动驾驶”套件类似，预计将于2022年推出的NAD技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实使蔚来在通往4级自动驾驶的竞赛中与行业领导者特斯拉相提并论。蔚来车主将可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。如今上路的蔚来汽车超过10.2万辆，新的订阅套餐预计将产生8.4亿元人民币（1.32亿美元）的年销售额增量；假设大多数现有蔚来车主注册的平均车辆寿命为12年，该服务推出后的额外收入流价值约为100亿元人民币（16亿美元）。</blockquote> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).<blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的不断发展预计将在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求最大的细分市场之一，估计价值为1.6万亿美元。该市场6%的份额将为蔚来现有670亿美元的市值增加至少1000亿美元的估值，使其每股价值超过100美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的全电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长其海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占据上述市场6%以上的份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股股价超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量约为30万辆，总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\">Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（蔚来_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</blockquote> Global Expansion<blockquote>全球扩张</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">Source: ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.<blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破100美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直公开表示其全球扩张的意图，特别是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设首个海外销售及服务中心。该品牌在挪威的足迹将于2022年进一步扩大，将在Bergen、Stavanger、Trondheim和Kristiansand开设四家蔚来商店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将在欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是在挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为新蔚来车主提供该品牌赖以成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰SUV ES 8目前零售价约为67,000美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车ET 7将于2022年紧随其后。</blockquote> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.<blockquote>凭借在中国豪华电动汽车市场的良好销售记录，以及与全球公认的特斯拉相当的规格，蔚来没有理由不在海外取得成功。正如前面提到的，蔚来的车辆充满电后的行驶里程可达435英里，这使得它成为潜在的欧美车主的理想选择，他们正在寻找一个可靠的伴侣来陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的首选相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车不断增长的需求。</blockquote> NIO’s Historical Performance<blockquote>蔚来的历史表现</blockquote> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.<blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销量持续增长，但由于流动性问题，蔚来股价跌至2美元以下的历史低点。2020年年中，中国合肥市政府向蔚来注资70亿元人民币（约合10亿美元）。该安排导致创建了“蔚来中国”，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来90.36%的所有权权益，而“合肥战略投资者”联合体持有馀下9.64%。这种合作关系成为了公司的生命线；额外资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显着改善，这反映在其强劲的财务业绩和2020年夏季股价的上涨趋势上。截至2020年第二季度末，蔚来总收入环比增长171%，股价平均反弹近20%。该公司股价在2020年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均为15.40美元，并继续攀升至第四季度平均38.70美元。截至2021年3月31日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为50.97美元，并在2月份达到近62美元的峰值，是2018年IPO价格的10倍多。该公司目前的市值超过670亿美元，超过了其在纽约证券交易所上市时仅10亿美元的市值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.<blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在2月底成长型股票遭到抛售之前见顶以来，蔚来的基本面也只显示出稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级增长，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，几乎占2020年总交付量的50%。该公司继续展现出乐观的前景，4月份交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长超过125%。得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，蔚来在2021年第一季度的经营活动中也保持了正现金流，这些措施将其毛利率提高至19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者的毛利率相当。第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量将接近30万辆，这意味着总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）（每股18.60美元）。我们最近与合资企业“江淮汽车集团”（“江淮汽车”）续签的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的汽车销售预测，该协议将目前100,000辆的年产能提高到240,000辆；正在建设中的“NeoPark”亦预期将新增100万台的年产能，这进一步支持了我们对蔚来继续致力于发展其业务的积极展望。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为16.43倍，年收入约为420亿美元（第一季度收入年化为103.89亿美元），将相同比例应用于蔚来预测的2025财年总收入预计将产生市盈率8.7倍，股价超过160美元。</blockquote> NIO vs. LI and XPEV<blockquote>蔚来vs.LI和XPEV</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Finviz<blockquote>资料来源：Finviz</blockquote> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.<blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与其国内同行进行了比较，以衡量蔚来股价突破100美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.<blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于LI和XPEV，前者的市盈率应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到18.1倍（XPEV的中点），也将推动该公司当前股价上涨至51.50美元，基于上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日），这意味着22%的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来2025财年收入1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）或每股18.60美元的预测，即使是18.1倍的一半也足以使蔚来的股价在2025年突破160美元；我们认为，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为届时从运营中获得的现金和技术进步将使其走上电动汽车行业持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到2030年及以后，届时该品牌的4级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote> Business Risks and Challenges<blockquote>业务风险及挑战</blockquote> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.<blockquote>正如我在之前关于蔚来的一篇文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“HFCA法案”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB的检查要求；否则，上述事务所审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前由普华永道中天会计师事务所（LLP）进行审计，该事务所被列入PCAOB的拒绝访问名单。如果中国当局和PCAOB不能很快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会成为投资者的威慑因素，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.<blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是持续的全球芯片供应短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的每一项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距越来越大。蔚来也不例外地受到持续的芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，交付量逐月增加就证明了这一点；在蔚来4月份最新的交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长125%。</blockquote> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.<blockquote>近年来，电动汽车行业的竞争也愈演愈烈。在过去十年中，由于对气候变化的日益担忧以及传统汽油燃料汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的进入门槛也大幅降低；随着初始投资变得比2003年特斯拉更加合理，新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动的汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并保持在汽车行业内的竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期保持成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（此处进一步分析）。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.<blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌影响力，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合其生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略的能力，蔚来正在有效缩小与特斯拉在全球电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价中，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，这使其成为值得选择的股票。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-06-05 12:15\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li> <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li> <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\">Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>蔚来的股价在过去一年飙升了816%以上，在3月初的成长股抛售之前，在2月初达到了近62美元的峰值。</li><li>该公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪日益高涨，预计将提振该公司的估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来股价到2025年将飙升至160美元以上。</li></ul>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images新闻来自Getty Images</blockquote> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).<blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来已经在电动汽车行业狂热投资者中获得了国际关注。距离蔚来于2018年中期首次交付仅过去了短短三年，但许多人已经想知道其股价是否能达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的股价超过每股600美元，市值超过6000亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来有潜力在2025年之前突破每股100美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近60美元，根据上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日）计算，该目标价有超过35%的上涨潜力。</blockquote> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.<blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今在华销售和交付汽车已超过10万辆。该公司拥有一支由五款零排放、全电池驱动的车型组成的车队，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将他们的全球扩张计划变成了现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到100美元不再是“如果”的问题，而是“何时”的问题。</blockquote> A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology<blockquote>创新技术的开拓者</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\">Source:ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.<blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池交换技术“Power Swap”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车行驶里程通常有限的问题。与加油站类似，换电是一个电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池使蔚来汽车能够行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车平均行驶里程181英里的两倍多。蔚来车主可以选择订阅“电池即服务”（“BaaS”）套餐，这是一项按月订阅的服务，为蔚来车主根据个人需求提供电池升级的灵活选择。该公司目前提供标准75 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达310英里，增强型100 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达435英里；两者都可供蔚来车主在BaaS下按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个电池交换站，继蔚来与中石化最近达成战略合作协议后，更多的电池交换站正在建设中。蔚来的车辆还与当地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国164个城市提供的1,140个汽车充电站兼容，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.<blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以在更广泛的电动汽车和技术领域保持竞争力。自2016年以来，蔚来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，并于2018年在北京的公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对未来客运的承诺也通过EVE的开发得到了证明，EVE是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的NOMI AI（世界上第一个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.<blockquote>为了进一步推动自动驾驶技术的进步，蔚来最近与Mobileye合作，Mobileye是一家英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司，以开发“EyeQ芯片”而闻名，目前已被超过27家汽车制造商用于其辅助驾驶技术——开发和商业化不需要人机交互的驾驶自动化（即“4级”自动驾驶）。他们的合作预计将加速蔚来推出“自动驾驶即服务”（“ADaaS”）套餐，这是他们的自动驾驶技术“蔚来自动驾驶”（“NAD”）的每月订阅。然而，与特斯拉的“全自动驾驶”套件类似，预计将于2022年推出的NAD技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实使蔚来在通往4级自动驾驶的竞赛中与行业领导者特斯拉相提并论。蔚来车主将可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。如今上路的蔚来汽车超过10.2万辆，新的订阅套餐预计将产生8.4亿元人民币（1.32亿美元）的年销售额增量；假设大多数现有蔚来车主注册的平均车辆寿命为12年，该服务推出后的额外收入流价值约为100亿元人民币（16亿美元）。</blockquote> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).<blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的不断发展预计将在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求最大的细分市场之一，估计价值为1.6万亿美元。该市场6%的份额将为蔚来现有670亿美元的市值增加至少1000亿美元的估值，使其每股价值超过100美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的全电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长其海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占据上述市场6%以上的份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股股价超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量约为30万辆，总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\">Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（蔚来_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</blockquote> Global Expansion<blockquote>全球扩张</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">Source: ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.<blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破100美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直公开表示其全球扩张的意图，特别是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设首个海外销售及服务中心。该品牌在挪威的足迹将于2022年进一步扩大，将在Bergen、Stavanger、Trondheim和Kristiansand开设四家蔚来商店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将在欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是在挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为新蔚来车主提供该品牌赖以成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰SUV ES 8目前零售价约为67,000美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车ET 7将于2022年紧随其后。</blockquote> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.<blockquote>凭借在中国豪华电动汽车市场的良好销售记录，以及与全球公认的特斯拉相当的规格，蔚来没有理由不在海外取得成功。正如前面提到的，蔚来的车辆充满电后的行驶里程可达435英里，这使得它成为潜在的欧美车主的理想选择，他们正在寻找一个可靠的伴侣来陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的首选相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车不断增长的需求。</blockquote> NIO’s Historical Performance<blockquote>蔚来的历史表现</blockquote> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.<blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销量持续增长，但由于流动性问题，蔚来股价跌至2美元以下的历史低点。2020年年中，中国合肥市政府向蔚来注资70亿元人民币（约合10亿美元）。该安排导致创建了“蔚来中国”，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来90.36%的所有权权益，而“合肥战略投资者”联合体持有馀下9.64%。这种合作关系成为了公司的生命线；额外资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显着改善，这反映在其强劲的财务业绩和2020年夏季股价的上涨趋势上。截至2020年第二季度末，蔚来总收入环比增长171%，股价平均反弹近20%。该公司股价在2020年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均为15.40美元，并继续攀升至第四季度平均38.70美元。截至2021年3月31日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为50.97美元，并在2月份达到近62美元的峰值，是2018年IPO价格的10倍多。该公司目前的市值超过670亿美元，超过了其在纽约证券交易所上市时仅10亿美元的市值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.<blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在2月底成长型股票遭到抛售之前见顶以来，蔚来的基本面也只显示出稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级增长，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，几乎占2020年总交付量的50%。该公司继续展现出乐观的前景，4月份交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长超过125%。得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，蔚来在2021年第一季度的经营活动中也保持了正现金流，这些措施将其毛利率提高至19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者的毛利率相当。第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量将接近30万辆，这意味着总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）（每股18.60美元）。我们最近与合资企业“江淮汽车集团”（“江淮汽车”）续签的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的汽车销售预测，该协议将目前100,000辆的年产能提高到240,000辆；正在建设中的“NeoPark”亦预期将新增100万台的年产能，这进一步支持了我们对蔚来继续致力于发展其业务的积极展望。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为16.43倍，年收入约为420亿美元（第一季度收入年化为103.89亿美元），将相同比例应用于蔚来预测的2025财年总收入预计将产生市盈率8.7倍，股价超过160美元。</blockquote> NIO vs. LI and XPEV<blockquote>蔚来vs.LI和XPEV</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Finviz<blockquote>资料来源：Finviz</blockquote> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.<blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与其国内同行进行了比较，以衡量蔚来股价突破100美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.<blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于LI和XPEV，前者的市盈率应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到18.1倍（XPEV的中点），也将推动该公司当前股价上涨至51.50美元，基于上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日），这意味着22%的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来2025财年收入1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）或每股18.60美元的预测，即使是18.1倍的一半也足以使蔚来的股价在2025年突破160美元；我们认为，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为届时从运营中获得的现金和技术进步将使其走上电动汽车行业持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到2030年及以后，届时该品牌的4级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote> Business Risks and Challenges<blockquote>业务风险及挑战</blockquote> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.<blockquote>正如我在之前关于蔚来的一篇文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“HFCA法案”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB的检查要求；否则，上述事务所审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前由普华永道中天会计师事务所（LLP）进行审计，该事务所被列入PCAOB的拒绝访问名单。如果中国当局和PCAOB不能很快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会成为投资者的威慑因素，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.<blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是持续的全球芯片供应短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的每一项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距越来越大。蔚来也不例外地受到持续的芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，交付量逐月增加就证明了这一点；在蔚来4月份最新的交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长125%。</blockquote> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.<blockquote>近年来，电动汽车行业的竞争也愈演愈烈。在过去十年中，由于对气候变化的日益担忧以及传统汽油燃料汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的进入门槛也大幅降低；随着初始投资变得比2003年特斯拉更加合理，新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动的汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并保持在汽车行业内的竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期保持成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（此处进一步分析）。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.<blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌影响力，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合其生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略的能力，蔚来正在有效缩小与特斯拉在全球电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价中，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，这使其成为值得选择的股票。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148130971","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.\nThe company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.\nWe believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.\n\nPhoto by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nDespite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).\nFounded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.\nA Trailblazer in Innovative Technology\nSource:ir.nio.com\nNIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the 181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are more than 226 battery swapping stations across China, with more on the way following a recent strategic partnership agreement between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.\nIn addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.\nTo further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently partnered with Mobileye – an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.\nNIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).\nSource: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nGlobal Expansion\nSource: ir.nio.com\nAnother catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the ES8, which currently retails at a starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the ET7, to follow in 2022.\nWith a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.\nNIO’s Historical Performance\nJust a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a capital injection of RMB 7 billion (approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.\nSource: Author, with data from ir.nio.com\nNIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the recently renewed manufacturing agreement with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.\nNIO vs. LI and XPEV\nSource: Finviz\nWe have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.\nConsidering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.\nBusiness Risks and Challenges\nAs mentioned in one of my previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.\nAnother imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.\nCompetition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.\nConclusion\nNIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":115241185,"gmtCreate":1623018826447,"gmtModify":1623018826447,"author":{"id":"3570813663502369","authorId":"3570813663502369","name":"eeez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e4f974ced53f13a2b714d56018e7b43","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f84859c65fc2d7681e28f6b8e9b0535a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3570813663502369","authorIdStr":"3570813663502369"},"htmlText":"Plz comment&nbsp;","listText":"Plz comment&nbsp;","text":"Plz comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115241185","repostId":1148130971,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148130971","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622866524,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148130971?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-05 12:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148130971","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fas","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li> <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li> <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\">Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>蔚来的股价在过去一年飙升了816%以上，在3月初的成长股抛售之前，在2月初达到了近62美元的峰值。</li><li>该公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪日益高涨，预计将提振该公司的估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来股价到2025年将飙升至160美元以上。</li></ul>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images新闻来自Getty Images</blockquote> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).<blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来已经在电动汽车行业狂热投资者中获得了国际关注。距离蔚来于2018年中期首次交付仅过去了短短三年，但许多人已经想知道其股价是否能达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的股价超过每股600美元，市值超过6000亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来有潜力在2025年之前突破每股100美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近60美元，根据上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日）计算，该目标价有超过35%的上涨潜力。</blockquote> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.<blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今在华销售和交付汽车已超过10万辆。该公司拥有一支由五款零排放、全电池驱动的车型组成的车队，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将他们的全球扩张计划变成了现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到100美元不再是“如果”的问题，而是“何时”的问题。</blockquote> A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology<blockquote>创新技术的开拓者</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\">Source:ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.<blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池交换技术“Power Swap”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车行驶里程通常有限的问题。与加油站类似，换电是一个电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池使蔚来汽车能够行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车平均行驶里程181英里的两倍多。蔚来车主可以选择订阅“电池即服务”（“BaaS”）套餐，这是一项按月订阅的服务，为蔚来车主根据个人需求提供电池升级的灵活选择。该公司目前提供标准75 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达310英里，增强型100 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达435英里；两者都可供蔚来车主在BaaS下按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个电池交换站，继蔚来与中石化最近达成战略合作协议后，更多的电池交换站正在建设中。蔚来的车辆还与当地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国164个城市提供的1,140个汽车充电站兼容，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.<blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以在更广泛的电动汽车和技术领域保持竞争力。自2016年以来，蔚来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，并于2018年在北京的公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对未来客运的承诺也通过EVE的开发得到了证明，EVE是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的NOMI AI（世界上第一个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.<blockquote>为了进一步推动自动驾驶技术的进步，蔚来最近与Mobileye合作，Mobileye是一家英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司，以开发“EyeQ芯片”而闻名，目前已被超过27家汽车制造商用于其辅助驾驶技术——开发和商业化不需要人机交互的驾驶自动化（即“4级”自动驾驶）。他们的合作预计将加速蔚来推出“自动驾驶即服务”（“ADaaS”）套餐，这是他们的自动驾驶技术“蔚来自动驾驶”（“NAD”）的每月订阅。然而，与特斯拉的“全自动驾驶”套件类似，预计将于2022年推出的NAD技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实使蔚来在通往4级自动驾驶的竞赛中与行业领导者特斯拉相提并论。蔚来车主将可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。如今上路的蔚来汽车超过10.2万辆，新的订阅套餐预计将产生8.4亿元人民币（1.32亿美元）的年销售额增量；假设大多数现有蔚来车主注册的平均车辆寿命为12年，该服务推出后的额外收入流价值约为100亿元人民币（16亿美元）。</blockquote> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).<blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的不断发展预计将在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求最大的细分市场之一，估计价值为1.6万亿美元。该市场6%的份额将为蔚来现有670亿美元的市值增加至少1000亿美元的估值，使其每股价值超过100美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的全电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长其海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占据上述市场6%以上的份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股股价超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量约为30万辆，总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\">Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（蔚来_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</blockquote> Global Expansion<blockquote>全球扩张</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">Source: ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.<blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破100美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直公开表示其全球扩张的意图，特别是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设首个海外销售及服务中心。该品牌在挪威的足迹将于2022年进一步扩大，将在Bergen、Stavanger、Trondheim和Kristiansand开设四家蔚来商店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将在欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是在挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为新蔚来车主提供该品牌赖以成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰SUV ES 8目前零售价约为67,000美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车ET 7将于2022年紧随其后。</blockquote> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.<blockquote>凭借在中国豪华电动汽车市场的良好销售记录，以及与全球公认的特斯拉相当的规格，蔚来没有理由不在海外取得成功。正如前面提到的，蔚来的车辆充满电后的行驶里程可达435英里，这使得它成为潜在的欧美车主的理想选择，他们正在寻找一个可靠的伴侣来陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的首选相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车不断增长的需求。</blockquote> NIO’s Historical Performance<blockquote>蔚来的历史表现</blockquote> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.<blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销量持续增长，但由于流动性问题，蔚来股价跌至2美元以下的历史低点。2020年年中，中国合肥市政府向蔚来注资70亿元人民币（约合10亿美元）。该安排导致创建了“蔚来中国”，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来90.36%的所有权权益，而“合肥战略投资者”联合体持有馀下9.64%。这种合作关系成为了公司的生命线；额外资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显着改善，这反映在其强劲的财务业绩和2020年夏季股价的上涨趋势上。截至2020年第二季度末，蔚来总收入环比增长171%，股价平均反弹近20%。该公司股价在2020年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均为15.40美元，并继续攀升至第四季度平均38.70美元。截至2021年3月31日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为50.97美元，并在2月份达到近62美元的峰值，是2018年IPO价格的10倍多。该公司目前的市值超过670亿美元，超过了其在纽约证券交易所上市时仅10亿美元的市值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.<blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在2月底成长型股票遭到抛售之前见顶以来，蔚来的基本面也只显示出稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级增长，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，几乎占2020年总交付量的50%。该公司继续展现出乐观的前景，4月份交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长超过125%。得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，蔚来在2021年第一季度的经营活动中也保持了正现金流，这些措施将其毛利率提高至19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者的毛利率相当。第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量将接近30万辆，这意味着总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）（每股18.60美元）。我们最近与合资企业“江淮汽车集团”（“江淮汽车”）续签的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的汽车销售预测，该协议将目前100,000辆的年产能提高到240,000辆；正在建设中的“NeoPark”亦预期将新增100万台的年产能，这进一步支持了我们对蔚来继续致力于发展其业务的积极展望。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为16.43倍，年收入约为420亿美元（第一季度收入年化为103.89亿美元），将相同比例应用于蔚来预测的2025财年总收入预计将产生市盈率8.7倍，股价超过160美元。</blockquote> NIO vs. LI and XPEV<blockquote>蔚来vs.LI和XPEV</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Finviz<blockquote>资料来源：Finviz</blockquote> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.<blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与其国内同行进行了比较，以衡量蔚来股价突破100美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.<blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于LI和XPEV，前者的市盈率应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到18.1倍（XPEV的中点），也将推动该公司当前股价上涨至51.50美元，基于上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日），这意味着22%的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来2025财年收入1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）或每股18.60美元的预测，即使是18.1倍的一半也足以使蔚来的股价在2025年突破160美元；我们认为，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为届时从运营中获得的现金和技术进步将使其走上电动汽车行业持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到2030年及以后，届时该品牌的4级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote> Business Risks and Challenges<blockquote>业务风险及挑战</blockquote> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.<blockquote>正如我在之前关于蔚来的一篇文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“HFCA法案”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB的检查要求；否则，上述事务所审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前由普华永道中天会计师事务所（LLP）进行审计，该事务所被列入PCAOB的拒绝访问名单。如果中国当局和PCAOB不能很快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会成为投资者的威慑因素，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.<blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是持续的全球芯片供应短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的每一项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距越来越大。蔚来也不例外地受到持续的芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，交付量逐月增加就证明了这一点；在蔚来4月份最新的交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长125%。</blockquote> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.<blockquote>近年来，电动汽车行业的竞争也愈演愈烈。在过去十年中，由于对气候变化的日益担忧以及传统汽油燃料汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的进入门槛也大幅降低；随着初始投资变得比2003年特斯拉更加合理，新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动的汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并保持在汽车行业内的竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期保持成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（此处进一步分析）。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.<blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌影响力，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合其生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略的能力，蔚来正在有效缩小与特斯拉在全球电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价中，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，这使其成为值得选择的股票。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-06-05 12:15\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li> <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li> <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\">Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>蔚来的股价在过去一年飙升了816%以上，在3月初的成长股抛售之前，在2月初达到了近62美元的峰值。</li><li>该公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪日益高涨，预计将提振该公司的估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来股价到2025年将飙升至160美元以上。</li></ul>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images新闻来自Getty Images</blockquote> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).<blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来已经在电动汽车行业狂热投资者中获得了国际关注。距离蔚来于2018年中期首次交付仅过去了短短三年，但许多人已经想知道其股价是否能达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的股价超过每股600美元，市值超过6000亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来有潜力在2025年之前突破每股100美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近60美元，根据上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日）计算，该目标价有超过35%的上涨潜力。</blockquote> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.<blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今在华销售和交付汽车已超过10万辆。该公司拥有一支由五款零排放、全电池驱动的车型组成的车队，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将他们的全球扩张计划变成了现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到100美元不再是“如果”的问题，而是“何时”的问题。</blockquote> A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology<blockquote>创新技术的开拓者</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\">Source:ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.<blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池交换技术“Power Swap”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车行驶里程通常有限的问题。与加油站类似，换电是一个电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池使蔚来汽车能够行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车平均行驶里程181英里的两倍多。蔚来车主可以选择订阅“电池即服务”（“BaaS”）套餐，这是一项按月订阅的服务，为蔚来车主根据个人需求提供电池升级的灵活选择。该公司目前提供标准75 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达310英里，增强型100 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达435英里；两者都可供蔚来车主在BaaS下按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个电池交换站，继蔚来与中石化最近达成战略合作协议后，更多的电池交换站正在建设中。蔚来的车辆还与当地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国164个城市提供的1,140个汽车充电站兼容，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.<blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以在更广泛的电动汽车和技术领域保持竞争力。自2016年以来，蔚来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，并于2018年在北京的公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对未来客运的承诺也通过EVE的开发得到了证明，EVE是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的NOMI AI（世界上第一个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.<blockquote>为了进一步推动自动驾驶技术的进步，蔚来最近与Mobileye合作，Mobileye是一家英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司，以开发“EyeQ芯片”而闻名，目前已被超过27家汽车制造商用于其辅助驾驶技术——开发和商业化不需要人机交互的驾驶自动化（即“4级”自动驾驶）。他们的合作预计将加速蔚来推出“自动驾驶即服务”（“ADaaS”）套餐，这是他们的自动驾驶技术“蔚来自动驾驶”（“NAD”）的每月订阅。然而，与特斯拉的“全自动驾驶”套件类似，预计将于2022年推出的NAD技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实使蔚来在通往4级自动驾驶的竞赛中与行业领导者特斯拉相提并论。蔚来车主将可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。如今上路的蔚来汽车超过10.2万辆，新的订阅套餐预计将产生8.4亿元人民币（1.32亿美元）的年销售额增量；假设大多数现有蔚来车主注册的平均车辆寿命为12年，该服务推出后的额外收入流价值约为100亿元人民币（16亿美元）。</blockquote> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).<blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的不断发展预计将在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求最大的细分市场之一，估计价值为1.6万亿美元。该市场6%的份额将为蔚来现有670亿美元的市值增加至少1000亿美元的估值，使其每股价值超过100美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的全电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长其海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占据上述市场6%以上的份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股股价超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量约为30万辆，总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\">Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（蔚来_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</blockquote> Global Expansion<blockquote>全球扩张</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">Source: ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.<blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破100美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直公开表示其全球扩张的意图，特别是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设首个海外销售及服务中心。该品牌在挪威的足迹将于2022年进一步扩大，将在Bergen、Stavanger、Trondheim和Kristiansand开设四家蔚来商店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将在欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是在挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为新蔚来车主提供该品牌赖以成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰SUV ES 8目前零售价约为67,000美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车ET 7将于2022年紧随其后。</blockquote> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.<blockquote>凭借在中国豪华电动汽车市场的良好销售记录，以及与全球公认的特斯拉相当的规格，蔚来没有理由不在海外取得成功。正如前面提到的，蔚来的车辆充满电后的行驶里程可达435英里，这使得它成为潜在的欧美车主的理想选择，他们正在寻找一个可靠的伴侣来陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的首选相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车不断增长的需求。</blockquote> NIO’s Historical Performance<blockquote>蔚来的历史表现</blockquote> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.<blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销量持续增长，但由于流动性问题，蔚来股价跌至2美元以下的历史低点。2020年年中，中国合肥市政府向蔚来注资70亿元人民币（约合10亿美元）。该安排导致创建了“蔚来中国”，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来90.36%的所有权权益，而“合肥战略投资者”联合体持有馀下9.64%。这种合作关系成为了公司的生命线；额外资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显着改善，这反映在其强劲的财务业绩和2020年夏季股价的上涨趋势上。截至2020年第二季度末，蔚来总收入环比增长171%，股价平均反弹近20%。该公司股价在2020年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均为15.40美元，并继续攀升至第四季度平均38.70美元。截至2021年3月31日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为50.97美元，并在2月份达到近62美元的峰值，是2018年IPO价格的10倍多。该公司目前的市值超过670亿美元，超过了其在纽约证券交易所上市时仅10亿美元的市值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.<blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在2月底成长型股票遭到抛售之前见顶以来，蔚来的基本面也只显示出稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级增长，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，几乎占2020年总交付量的50%。该公司继续展现出乐观的前景，4月份交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长超过125%。得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，蔚来在2021年第一季度的经营活动中也保持了正现金流，这些措施将其毛利率提高至19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者的毛利率相当。第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量将接近30万辆，这意味着总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）（每股18.60美元）。我们最近与合资企业“江淮汽车集团”（“江淮汽车”）续签的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的汽车销售预测，该协议将目前100,000辆的年产能提高到240,000辆；正在建设中的“NeoPark”亦预期将新增100万台的年产能，这进一步支持了我们对蔚来继续致力于发展其业务的积极展望。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为16.43倍，年收入约为420亿美元（第一季度收入年化为103.89亿美元），将相同比例应用于蔚来预测的2025财年总收入预计将产生市盈率8.7倍，股价超过160美元。</blockquote> NIO vs. LI and XPEV<blockquote>蔚来vs.LI和XPEV</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Finviz<blockquote>资料来源：Finviz</blockquote> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.<blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与其国内同行进行了比较，以衡量蔚来股价突破100美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.<blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于LI和XPEV，前者的市盈率应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到18.1倍（XPEV的中点），也将推动该公司当前股价上涨至51.50美元，基于上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日），这意味着22%的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来2025财年收入1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）或每股18.60美元的预测，即使是18.1倍的一半也足以使蔚来的股价在2025年突破160美元；我们认为，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为届时从运营中获得的现金和技术进步将使其走上电动汽车行业持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到2030年及以后，届时该品牌的4级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote> Business Risks and Challenges<blockquote>业务风险及挑战</blockquote> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.<blockquote>正如我在之前关于蔚来的一篇文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“HFCA法案”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB的检查要求；否则，上述事务所审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前由普华永道中天会计师事务所（LLP）进行审计，该事务所被列入PCAOB的拒绝访问名单。如果中国当局和PCAOB不能很快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会成为投资者的威慑因素，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.<blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是持续的全球芯片供应短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的每一项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距越来越大。蔚来也不例外地受到持续的芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，交付量逐月增加就证明了这一点；在蔚来4月份最新的交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长125%。</blockquote> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.<blockquote>近年来，电动汽车行业的竞争也愈演愈烈。在过去十年中，由于对气候变化的日益担忧以及传统汽油燃料汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的进入门槛也大幅降低；随着初始投资变得比2003年特斯拉更加合理，新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动的汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并保持在汽车行业内的竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期保持成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（此处进一步分析）。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.<blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌影响力，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合其生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略的能力，蔚来正在有效缩小与特斯拉在全球电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价中，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，这使其成为值得选择的股票。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148130971","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.\nThe company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.\nWe believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.\n\nPhoto by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nDespite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).\nFounded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.\nA Trailblazer in Innovative Technology\nSource:ir.nio.com\nNIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the 181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are more than 226 battery swapping stations across China, with more on the way following a recent strategic partnership agreement between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.\nIn addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.\nTo further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently partnered with Mobileye – an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.\nNIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).\nSource: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nGlobal Expansion\nSource: ir.nio.com\nAnother catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the ES8, which currently retails at a starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the ET7, to follow in 2022.\nWith a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.\nNIO’s Historical Performance\nJust a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a capital injection of RMB 7 billion (approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.\nSource: Author, with data from ir.nio.com\nNIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the recently renewed manufacturing agreement with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.\nNIO vs. LI and XPEV\nSource: Finviz\nWe have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.\nConsidering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.\nBusiness Risks and Challenges\nAs mentioned in one of my previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.\nAnother imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.\nCompetition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.\nConclusion\nNIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4606253,"gmtCreate":1623021563637,"gmtModify":1635334608186,"authorId":3582350348015234,"author":{"id":3582350348015234,"idStr":"3582350348015234","authorId":3582350348015234,"name":"Piggys","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f386502c2ebc95e1f03787b092501ef","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":115241185,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Pls comment bacK too.","text":"Pls comment bacK too.","html":"Pls comment bacK too."}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":115699480,"gmtCreate":1622981513340,"gmtModify":1631889133804,"author":{"id":"3575840373160417","authorId":"3575840373160417","name":"Sweatheart","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab86ad4cc3ef27ac34dce5bd65f8701e","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575840373160417","authorIdStr":"3575840373160417"},"htmlText":"Yes, i believes it will be able&nbsp;to reach that price one day,&nbsp;is just a matter of time only. $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ have building&nbsp;their ecosystem, power swapping is&nbsp;definitely an attractive key point for buyer to consider of purchase.","listText":"Yes, i believes it will be able&nbsp;to reach that price one day,&nbsp;is just a matter of time only. $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ have building&nbsp;their ecosystem, power swapping is&nbsp;definitely an attractive key point for buyer to consider of purchase.","text":"Yes, i believes it will be able to reach that price one day, is just a matter of time only. $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ have building their ecosystem, power swapping is definitely an attractive key point for buyer to consider of purchase.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":29,"commentSize":41,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115699480","repostId":1148130971,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148130971","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622866524,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148130971?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-05 12:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148130971","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fas","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li> <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li> <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\">Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>蔚来的股价在过去一年飙升了816%以上，在3月初的成长股抛售之前，在2月初达到了近62美元的峰值。</li><li>该公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪日益高涨，预计将提振该公司的估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来股价到2025年将飙升至160美元以上。</li></ul>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images新闻来自Getty Images</blockquote> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).<blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来已经在电动汽车行业狂热投资者中获得了国际关注。距离蔚来于2018年中期首次交付仅过去了短短三年，但许多人已经想知道其股价是否能达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的股价超过每股600美元，市值超过6000亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来有潜力在2025年之前突破每股100美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近60美元，根据上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日）计算，该目标价有超过35%的上涨潜力。</blockquote> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.<blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今在华销售和交付汽车已超过10万辆。该公司拥有一支由五款零排放、全电池驱动的车型组成的车队，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将他们的全球扩张计划变成了现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到100美元不再是“如果”的问题，而是“何时”的问题。</blockquote> A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology<blockquote>创新技术的开拓者</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\">Source:ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.<blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池交换技术“Power Swap”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车行驶里程通常有限的问题。与加油站类似，换电是一个电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池使蔚来汽车能够行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车平均行驶里程181英里的两倍多。蔚来车主可以选择订阅“电池即服务”（“BaaS”）套餐，这是一项按月订阅的服务，为蔚来车主根据个人需求提供电池升级的灵活选择。该公司目前提供标准75 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达310英里，增强型100 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达435英里；两者都可供蔚来车主在BaaS下按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个电池交换站，继蔚来与中石化最近达成战略合作协议后，更多的电池交换站正在建设中。蔚来的车辆还与当地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国164个城市提供的1,140个汽车充电站兼容，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.<blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以在更广泛的电动汽车和技术领域保持竞争力。自2016年以来，蔚来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，并于2018年在北京的公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对未来客运的承诺也通过EVE的开发得到了证明，EVE是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的NOMI AI（世界上第一个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.<blockquote>为了进一步推动自动驾驶技术的进步，蔚来最近与Mobileye合作，Mobileye是一家英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司，以开发“EyeQ芯片”而闻名，目前已被超过27家汽车制造商用于其辅助驾驶技术——开发和商业化不需要人机交互的驾驶自动化（即“4级”自动驾驶）。他们的合作预计将加速蔚来推出“自动驾驶即服务”（“ADaaS”）套餐，这是他们的自动驾驶技术“蔚来自动驾驶”（“NAD”）的每月订阅。然而，与特斯拉的“全自动驾驶”套件类似，预计将于2022年推出的NAD技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实使蔚来在通往4级自动驾驶的竞赛中与行业领导者特斯拉相提并论。蔚来车主将可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。如今上路的蔚来汽车超过10.2万辆，新的订阅套餐预计将产生8.4亿元人民币（1.32亿美元）的年销售额增量；假设大多数现有蔚来车主注册的平均车辆寿命为12年，该服务推出后的额外收入流价值约为100亿元人民币（16亿美元）。</blockquote> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).<blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的不断发展预计将在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求最大的细分市场之一，估计价值为1.6万亿美元。该市场6%的份额将为蔚来现有670亿美元的市值增加至少1000亿美元的估值，使其每股价值超过100美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的全电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长其海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占据上述市场6%以上的份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股股价超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量约为30万辆，总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\">Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（蔚来_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</blockquote> Global Expansion<blockquote>全球扩张</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">Source: ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.<blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破100美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直公开表示其全球扩张的意图，特别是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设首个海外销售及服务中心。该品牌在挪威的足迹将于2022年进一步扩大，将在Bergen、Stavanger、Trondheim和Kristiansand开设四家蔚来商店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将在欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是在挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为新蔚来车主提供该品牌赖以成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰SUV ES 8目前零售价约为67,000美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车ET 7将于2022年紧随其后。</blockquote> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.<blockquote>凭借在中国豪华电动汽车市场的良好销售记录，以及与全球公认的特斯拉相当的规格，蔚来没有理由不在海外取得成功。正如前面提到的，蔚来的车辆充满电后的行驶里程可达435英里，这使得它成为潜在的欧美车主的理想选择，他们正在寻找一个可靠的伴侣来陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的首选相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车不断增长的需求。</blockquote> NIO’s Historical Performance<blockquote>蔚来的历史表现</blockquote> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.<blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销量持续增长，但由于流动性问题，蔚来股价跌至2美元以下的历史低点。2020年年中，中国合肥市政府向蔚来注资70亿元人民币（约合10亿美元）。该安排导致创建了“蔚来中国”，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来90.36%的所有权权益，而“合肥战略投资者”联合体持有馀下9.64%。这种合作关系成为了公司的生命线；额外资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显着改善，这反映在其强劲的财务业绩和2020年夏季股价的上涨趋势上。截至2020年第二季度末，蔚来总收入环比增长171%，股价平均反弹近20%。该公司股价在2020年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均为15.40美元，并继续攀升至第四季度平均38.70美元。截至2021年3月31日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为50.97美元，并在2月份达到近62美元的峰值，是2018年IPO价格的10倍多。该公司目前的市值超过670亿美元，超过了其在纽约证券交易所上市时仅10亿美元的市值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.<blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在2月底成长型股票遭到抛售之前见顶以来，蔚来的基本面也只显示出稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级增长，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，几乎占2020年总交付量的50%。该公司继续展现出乐观的前景，4月份交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长超过125%。得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，蔚来在2021年第一季度的经营活动中也保持了正现金流，这些措施将其毛利率提高至19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者的毛利率相当。第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量将接近30万辆，这意味着总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）（每股18.60美元）。我们最近与合资企业“江淮汽车集团”（“江淮汽车”）续签的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的汽车销售预测，该协议将目前100,000辆的年产能提高到240,000辆；正在建设中的“NeoPark”亦预期将新增100万台的年产能，这进一步支持了我们对蔚来继续致力于发展其业务的积极展望。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为16.43倍，年收入约为420亿美元（第一季度收入年化为103.89亿美元），将相同比例应用于蔚来预测的2025财年总收入预计将产生市盈率8.7倍，股价超过160美元。</blockquote> NIO vs. LI and XPEV<blockquote>蔚来vs.LI和XPEV</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Finviz<blockquote>资料来源：Finviz</blockquote> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.<blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与其国内同行进行了比较，以衡量蔚来股价突破100美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.<blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于LI和XPEV，前者的市盈率应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到18.1倍（XPEV的中点），也将推动该公司当前股价上涨至51.50美元，基于上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日），这意味着22%的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来2025财年收入1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）或每股18.60美元的预测，即使是18.1倍的一半也足以使蔚来的股价在2025年突破160美元；我们认为，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为届时从运营中获得的现金和技术进步将使其走上电动汽车行业持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到2030年及以后，届时该品牌的4级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote> Business Risks and Challenges<blockquote>业务风险及挑战</blockquote> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.<blockquote>正如我在之前关于蔚来的一篇文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“HFCA法案”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB的检查要求；否则，上述事务所审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前由普华永道中天会计师事务所（LLP）进行审计，该事务所被列入PCAOB的拒绝访问名单。如果中国当局和PCAOB不能很快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会成为投资者的威慑因素，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.<blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是持续的全球芯片供应短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的每一项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距越来越大。蔚来也不例外地受到持续的芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，交付量逐月增加就证明了这一点；在蔚来4月份最新的交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长125%。</blockquote> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.<blockquote>近年来，电动汽车行业的竞争也愈演愈烈。在过去十年中，由于对气候变化的日益担忧以及传统汽油燃料汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的进入门槛也大幅降低；随着初始投资变得比2003年特斯拉更加合理，新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动的汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并保持在汽车行业内的竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期保持成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（此处进一步分析）。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.<blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌影响力，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合其生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略的能力，蔚来正在有效缩小与特斯拉在全球电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价中，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，这使其成为值得选择的股票。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-06-05 12:15\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li> <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li> <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\">Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>蔚来的股价在过去一年飙升了816%以上，在3月初的成长股抛售之前，在2月初达到了近62美元的峰值。</li><li>该公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪日益高涨，预计将提振该公司的估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来股价到2025年将飙升至160美元以上。</li></ul>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images新闻来自Getty Images</blockquote> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).<blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来已经在电动汽车行业狂热投资者中获得了国际关注。距离蔚来于2018年中期首次交付仅过去了短短三年，但许多人已经想知道其股价是否能达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的股价超过每股600美元，市值超过6000亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来有潜力在2025年之前突破每股100美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近60美元，根据上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日）计算，该目标价有超过35%的上涨潜力。</blockquote> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.<blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今在华销售和交付汽车已超过10万辆。该公司拥有一支由五款零排放、全电池驱动的车型组成的车队，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将他们的全球扩张计划变成了现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到100美元不再是“如果”的问题，而是“何时”的问题。</blockquote> A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology<blockquote>创新技术的开拓者</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\">Source:ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.<blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池交换技术“Power Swap”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车行驶里程通常有限的问题。与加油站类似，换电是一个电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池使蔚来汽车能够行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车平均行驶里程181英里的两倍多。蔚来车主可以选择订阅“电池即服务”（“BaaS”）套餐，这是一项按月订阅的服务，为蔚来车主根据个人需求提供电池升级的灵活选择。该公司目前提供标准75 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达310英里，增强型100 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达435英里；两者都可供蔚来车主在BaaS下按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个电池交换站，继蔚来与中石化最近达成战略合作协议后，更多的电池交换站正在建设中。蔚来的车辆还与当地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国164个城市提供的1,140个汽车充电站兼容，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.<blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以在更广泛的电动汽车和技术领域保持竞争力。自2016年以来，蔚来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，并于2018年在北京的公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对未来客运的承诺也通过EVE的开发得到了证明，EVE是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的NOMI AI（世界上第一个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.<blockquote>为了进一步推动自动驾驶技术的进步，蔚来最近与Mobileye合作，Mobileye是一家英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司，以开发“EyeQ芯片”而闻名，目前已被超过27家汽车制造商用于其辅助驾驶技术——开发和商业化不需要人机交互的驾驶自动化（即“4级”自动驾驶）。他们的合作预计将加速蔚来推出“自动驾驶即服务”（“ADaaS”）套餐，这是他们的自动驾驶技术“蔚来自动驾驶”（“NAD”）的每月订阅。然而，与特斯拉的“全自动驾驶”套件类似，预计将于2022年推出的NAD技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实使蔚来在通往4级自动驾驶的竞赛中与行业领导者特斯拉相提并论。蔚来车主将可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。如今上路的蔚来汽车超过10.2万辆，新的订阅套餐预计将产生8.4亿元人民币（1.32亿美元）的年销售额增量；假设大多数现有蔚来车主注册的平均车辆寿命为12年，该服务推出后的额外收入流价值约为100亿元人民币（16亿美元）。</blockquote> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).<blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的不断发展预计将在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求最大的细分市场之一，估计价值为1.6万亿美元。该市场6%的份额将为蔚来现有670亿美元的市值增加至少1000亿美元的估值，使其每股价值超过100美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的全电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长其海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占据上述市场6%以上的份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股股价超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量约为30万辆，总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\">Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（蔚来_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</blockquote> Global Expansion<blockquote>全球扩张</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">Source: ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.<blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破100美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直公开表示其全球扩张的意图，特别是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设首个海外销售及服务中心。该品牌在挪威的足迹将于2022年进一步扩大，将在Bergen、Stavanger、Trondheim和Kristiansand开设四家蔚来商店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将在欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是在挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为新蔚来车主提供该品牌赖以成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰SUV ES 8目前零售价约为67,000美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车ET 7将于2022年紧随其后。</blockquote> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.<blockquote>凭借在中国豪华电动汽车市场的良好销售记录，以及与全球公认的特斯拉相当的规格，蔚来没有理由不在海外取得成功。正如前面提到的，蔚来的车辆充满电后的行驶里程可达435英里，这使得它成为潜在的欧美车主的理想选择，他们正在寻找一个可靠的伴侣来陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的首选相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车不断增长的需求。</blockquote> NIO’s Historical Performance<blockquote>蔚来的历史表现</blockquote> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.<blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销量持续增长，但由于流动性问题，蔚来股价跌至2美元以下的历史低点。2020年年中，中国合肥市政府向蔚来注资70亿元人民币（约合10亿美元）。该安排导致创建了“蔚来中国”，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来90.36%的所有权权益，而“合肥战略投资者”联合体持有馀下9.64%。这种合作关系成为了公司的生命线；额外资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显着改善，这反映在其强劲的财务业绩和2020年夏季股价的上涨趋势上。截至2020年第二季度末，蔚来总收入环比增长171%，股价平均反弹近20%。该公司股价在2020年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均为15.40美元，并继续攀升至第四季度平均38.70美元。截至2021年3月31日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为50.97美元，并在2月份达到近62美元的峰值，是2018年IPO价格的10倍多。该公司目前的市值超过670亿美元，超过了其在纽约证券交易所上市时仅10亿美元的市值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.<blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在2月底成长型股票遭到抛售之前见顶以来，蔚来的基本面也只显示出稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级增长，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，几乎占2020年总交付量的50%。该公司继续展现出乐观的前景，4月份交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长超过125%。得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，蔚来在2021年第一季度的经营活动中也保持了正现金流，这些措施将其毛利率提高至19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者的毛利率相当。第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量将接近30万辆，这意味着总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）（每股18.60美元）。我们最近与合资企业“江淮汽车集团”（“江淮汽车”）续签的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的汽车销售预测，该协议将目前100,000辆的年产能提高到240,000辆；正在建设中的“NeoPark”亦预期将新增100万台的年产能，这进一步支持了我们对蔚来继续致力于发展其业务的积极展望。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为16.43倍，年收入约为420亿美元（第一季度收入年化为103.89亿美元），将相同比例应用于蔚来预测的2025财年总收入预计将产生市盈率8.7倍，股价超过160美元。</blockquote> NIO vs. LI and XPEV<blockquote>蔚来vs.LI和XPEV</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Finviz<blockquote>资料来源：Finviz</blockquote> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.<blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与其国内同行进行了比较，以衡量蔚来股价突破100美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.<blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于LI和XPEV，前者的市盈率应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到18.1倍（XPEV的中点），也将推动该公司当前股价上涨至51.50美元，基于上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日），这意味着22%的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来2025财年收入1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）或每股18.60美元的预测，即使是18.1倍的一半也足以使蔚来的股价在2025年突破160美元；我们认为，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为届时从运营中获得的现金和技术进步将使其走上电动汽车行业持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到2030年及以后，届时该品牌的4级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote> Business Risks and Challenges<blockquote>业务风险及挑战</blockquote> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.<blockquote>正如我在之前关于蔚来的一篇文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“HFCA法案”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB的检查要求；否则，上述事务所审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前由普华永道中天会计师事务所（LLP）进行审计，该事务所被列入PCAOB的拒绝访问名单。如果中国当局和PCAOB不能很快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会成为投资者的威慑因素，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.<blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是持续的全球芯片供应短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的每一项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距越来越大。蔚来也不例外地受到持续的芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，交付量逐月增加就证明了这一点；在蔚来4月份最新的交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长125%。</blockquote> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.<blockquote>近年来，电动汽车行业的竞争也愈演愈烈。在过去十年中，由于对气候变化的日益担忧以及传统汽油燃料汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的进入门槛也大幅降低；随着初始投资变得比2003年特斯拉更加合理，新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动的汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并保持在汽车行业内的竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期保持成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（此处进一步分析）。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.<blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌影响力，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合其生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略的能力，蔚来正在有效缩小与特斯拉在全球电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价中，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，这使其成为值得选择的股票。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148130971","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.\nThe company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.\nWe believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.\n\nPhoto by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nDespite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).\nFounded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.\nA Trailblazer in Innovative Technology\nSource:ir.nio.com\nNIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the 181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are more than 226 battery swapping stations across China, with more on the way following a recent strategic partnership agreement between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.\nIn addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.\nTo further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently partnered with Mobileye – an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.\nNIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).\nSource: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nGlobal Expansion\nSource: ir.nio.com\nAnother catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the ES8, which currently retails at a starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the ET7, to follow in 2022.\nWith a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.\nNIO’s Historical Performance\nJust a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a capital injection of RMB 7 billion (approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.\nSource: Author, with data from ir.nio.com\nNIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the recently renewed manufacturing agreement with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.\nNIO vs. LI and XPEV\nSource: Finviz\nWe have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.\nConsidering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.\nBusiness Risks and Challenges\nAs mentioned in one of my previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.\nAnother imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.\nCompetition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.\nConclusion\nNIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4928974,"gmtCreate":1624260738287,"gmtModify":1631889134366,"authorId":3579782126622830,"author":{"id":3579782126622830,"idStr":"3579782126622830","authorId":3579782126622830,"name":"Sephy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":115699480,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Yes but need longer time, now way overprice and their earnings will disappoint, chips supply still big problem. ","text":"Yes but need longer time, now way overprice and their earnings will disappoint, chips supply still big problem. ","html":"Yes but need longer time, now way overprice and their earnings will disappoint, chips supply still big problem. "},{"id":4918627,"gmtCreate":1624232269803,"gmtModify":1631889134341,"authorId":3577323008824535,"author":{"id":3577323008824535,"idStr":"3577323008824535","authorId":3577323008824535,"name":"JFZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":115699480,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"👍🏼","text":"👍🏼","html":"👍🏼"},{"id":4889726,"gmtCreate":1624087043625,"gmtModify":1631889134329,"authorId":3556600631001884,"author":{"id":3556600631001884,"idStr":"3556600631001884","authorId":3556600631001884,"name":"CHM_Jc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38c0fd9f965d74e66058c0d8d85e962a","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":115699480,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"keep buy in and hold long . up 100 year end","text":"keep buy in and hold long . up 100 year end","html":"keep buy in and hold long . up 100 year end"},{"id":4884636,"gmtCreate":1624069487109,"gmtModify":1631889134319,"authorId":3583564129796355,"author":{"id":3583564129796355,"idStr":"3583564129796355","authorId":3583564129796355,"name":"sellsell","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f702e035a6cf5482cecbba1eae8db93a","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":115699480,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Next week will try $49.00 above next resistance first.","text":"Next week will try $49.00 above next resistance first.","html":"Next week will try $49.00 above next resistance first."},{"id":4879217,"gmtCreate":1624053419330,"gmtModify":1631889134304,"authorId":3586079622397811,"author":{"id":3586079622397811,"idStr":"3586079622397811","authorId":3586079622397811,"name":"Rneo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f9add8bc546bbb267ee0df03e7b6853","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":115699480,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"sure","text":"sure","html":"sure"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":115149389,"gmtCreate":1622962535941,"gmtModify":1634096529289,"author":{"id":"3582029733148232","authorId":"3582029733148232","name":"FrankieYeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd2b634ba19c5cc2f01dcc38bee406d9","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582029733148232","authorIdStr":"3582029733148232"},"htmlText":"Got potential to reach&nbsp;","listText":"Got potential to reach&nbsp;","text":"Got potential to reach","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115149389","repostId":1148130971,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148130971","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622866524,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148130971?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-05 12:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148130971","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fas","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li> <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li> <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\">Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>蔚来的股价在过去一年飙升了816%以上，在3月初的成长股抛售之前，在2月初达到了近62美元的峰值。</li><li>该公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪日益高涨，预计将提振该公司的估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来股价到2025年将飙升至160美元以上。</li></ul>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images新闻来自Getty Images</blockquote> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).<blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来已经在电动汽车行业狂热投资者中获得了国际关注。距离蔚来于2018年中期首次交付仅过去了短短三年，但许多人已经想知道其股价是否能达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的股价超过每股600美元，市值超过6000亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来有潜力在2025年之前突破每股100美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近60美元，根据上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日）计算，该目标价有超过35%的上涨潜力。</blockquote> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.<blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今在华销售和交付汽车已超过10万辆。该公司拥有一支由五款零排放、全电池驱动的车型组成的车队，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将他们的全球扩张计划变成了现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到100美元不再是“如果”的问题，而是“何时”的问题。</blockquote> A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology<blockquote>创新技术的开拓者</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\">Source:ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.<blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池交换技术“Power Swap”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车行驶里程通常有限的问题。与加油站类似，换电是一个电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池使蔚来汽车能够行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车平均行驶里程181英里的两倍多。蔚来车主可以选择订阅“电池即服务”（“BaaS”）套餐，这是一项按月订阅的服务，为蔚来车主根据个人需求提供电池升级的灵活选择。该公司目前提供标准75 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达310英里，增强型100 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达435英里；两者都可供蔚来车主在BaaS下按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个电池交换站，继蔚来与中石化最近达成战略合作协议后，更多的电池交换站正在建设中。蔚来的车辆还与当地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国164个城市提供的1,140个汽车充电站兼容，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.<blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以在更广泛的电动汽车和技术领域保持竞争力。自2016年以来，蔚来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，并于2018年在北京的公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对未来客运的承诺也通过EVE的开发得到了证明，EVE是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的NOMI AI（世界上第一个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.<blockquote>为了进一步推动自动驾驶技术的进步，蔚来最近与Mobileye合作，Mobileye是一家英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司，以开发“EyeQ芯片”而闻名，目前已被超过27家汽车制造商用于其辅助驾驶技术——开发和商业化不需要人机交互的驾驶自动化（即“4级”自动驾驶）。他们的合作预计将加速蔚来推出“自动驾驶即服务”（“ADaaS”）套餐，这是他们的自动驾驶技术“蔚来自动驾驶”（“NAD”）的每月订阅。然而，与特斯拉的“全自动驾驶”套件类似，预计将于2022年推出的NAD技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实使蔚来在通往4级自动驾驶的竞赛中与行业领导者特斯拉相提并论。蔚来车主将可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。如今上路的蔚来汽车超过10.2万辆，新的订阅套餐预计将产生8.4亿元人民币（1.32亿美元）的年销售额增量；假设大多数现有蔚来车主注册的平均车辆寿命为12年，该服务推出后的额外收入流价值约为100亿元人民币（16亿美元）。</blockquote> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).<blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的不断发展预计将在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求最大的细分市场之一，估计价值为1.6万亿美元。该市场6%的份额将为蔚来现有670亿美元的市值增加至少1000亿美元的估值，使其每股价值超过100美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的全电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长其海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占据上述市场6%以上的份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股股价超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量约为30万辆，总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\">Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（蔚来_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</blockquote> Global Expansion<blockquote>全球扩张</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">Source: ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.<blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破100美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直公开表示其全球扩张的意图，特别是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设首个海外销售及服务中心。该品牌在挪威的足迹将于2022年进一步扩大，将在Bergen、Stavanger、Trondheim和Kristiansand开设四家蔚来商店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将在欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是在挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为新蔚来车主提供该品牌赖以成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰SUV ES 8目前零售价约为67,000美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车ET 7将于2022年紧随其后。</blockquote> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.<blockquote>凭借在中国豪华电动汽车市场的良好销售记录，以及与全球公认的特斯拉相当的规格，蔚来没有理由不在海外取得成功。正如前面提到的，蔚来的车辆充满电后的行驶里程可达435英里，这使得它成为潜在的欧美车主的理想选择，他们正在寻找一个可靠的伴侣来陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的首选相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车不断增长的需求。</blockquote> NIO’s Historical Performance<blockquote>蔚来的历史表现</blockquote> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.<blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销量持续增长，但由于流动性问题，蔚来股价跌至2美元以下的历史低点。2020年年中，中国合肥市政府向蔚来注资70亿元人民币（约合10亿美元）。该安排导致创建了“蔚来中国”，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来90.36%的所有权权益，而“合肥战略投资者”联合体持有馀下9.64%。这种合作关系成为了公司的生命线；额外资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显着改善，这反映在其强劲的财务业绩和2020年夏季股价的上涨趋势上。截至2020年第二季度末，蔚来总收入环比增长171%，股价平均反弹近20%。该公司股价在2020年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均为15.40美元，并继续攀升至第四季度平均38.70美元。截至2021年3月31日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为50.97美元，并在2月份达到近62美元的峰值，是2018年IPO价格的10倍多。该公司目前的市值超过670亿美元，超过了其在纽约证券交易所上市时仅10亿美元的市值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.<blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在2月底成长型股票遭到抛售之前见顶以来，蔚来的基本面也只显示出稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级增长，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，几乎占2020年总交付量的50%。该公司继续展现出乐观的前景，4月份交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长超过125%。得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，蔚来在2021年第一季度的经营活动中也保持了正现金流，这些措施将其毛利率提高至19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者的毛利率相当。第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量将接近30万辆，这意味着总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）（每股18.60美元）。我们最近与合资企业“江淮汽车集团”（“江淮汽车”）续签的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的汽车销售预测，该协议将目前100,000辆的年产能提高到240,000辆；正在建设中的“NeoPark”亦预期将新增100万台的年产能，这进一步支持了我们对蔚来继续致力于发展其业务的积极展望。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为16.43倍，年收入约为420亿美元（第一季度收入年化为103.89亿美元），将相同比例应用于蔚来预测的2025财年总收入预计将产生市盈率8.7倍，股价超过160美元。</blockquote> NIO vs. LI and XPEV<blockquote>蔚来vs.LI和XPEV</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Finviz<blockquote>资料来源：Finviz</blockquote> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.<blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与其国内同行进行了比较，以衡量蔚来股价突破100美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.<blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于LI和XPEV，前者的市盈率应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到18.1倍（XPEV的中点），也将推动该公司当前股价上涨至51.50美元，基于上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日），这意味着22%的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来2025财年收入1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）或每股18.60美元的预测，即使是18.1倍的一半也足以使蔚来的股价在2025年突破160美元；我们认为，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为届时从运营中获得的现金和技术进步将使其走上电动汽车行业持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到2030年及以后，届时该品牌的4级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote> Business Risks and Challenges<blockquote>业务风险及挑战</blockquote> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.<blockquote>正如我在之前关于蔚来的一篇文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“HFCA法案”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB的检查要求；否则，上述事务所审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前由普华永道中天会计师事务所（LLP）进行审计，该事务所被列入PCAOB的拒绝访问名单。如果中国当局和PCAOB不能很快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会成为投资者的威慑因素，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.<blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是持续的全球芯片供应短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的每一项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距越来越大。蔚来也不例外地受到持续的芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，交付量逐月增加就证明了这一点；在蔚来4月份最新的交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长125%。</blockquote> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.<blockquote>近年来，电动汽车行业的竞争也愈演愈烈。在过去十年中，由于对气候变化的日益担忧以及传统汽油燃料汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的进入门槛也大幅降低；随着初始投资变得比2003年特斯拉更加合理，新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动的汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并保持在汽车行业内的竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期保持成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（此处进一步分析）。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.<blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌影响力，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合其生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略的能力，蔚来正在有效缩小与特斯拉在全球电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价中，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，这使其成为值得选择的股票。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-06-05 12:15\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li> <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li> <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\">Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>蔚来的股价在过去一年飙升了816%以上，在3月初的成长股抛售之前，在2月初达到了近62美元的峰值。</li><li>该公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪日益高涨，预计将提振该公司的估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来股价到2025年将飙升至160美元以上。</li></ul>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images新闻来自Getty Images</blockquote> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).<blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来已经在电动汽车行业狂热投资者中获得了国际关注。距离蔚来于2018年中期首次交付仅过去了短短三年，但许多人已经想知道其股价是否能达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的股价超过每股600美元，市值超过6000亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来有潜力在2025年之前突破每股100美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近60美元，根据上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日）计算，该目标价有超过35%的上涨潜力。</blockquote> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.<blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今在华销售和交付汽车已超过10万辆。该公司拥有一支由五款零排放、全电池驱动的车型组成的车队，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将他们的全球扩张计划变成了现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到100美元不再是“如果”的问题，而是“何时”的问题。</blockquote> A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology<blockquote>创新技术的开拓者</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\">Source:ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.<blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池交换技术“Power Swap”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车行驶里程通常有限的问题。与加油站类似，换电是一个电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池使蔚来汽车能够行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车平均行驶里程181英里的两倍多。蔚来车主可以选择订阅“电池即服务”（“BaaS”）套餐，这是一项按月订阅的服务，为蔚来车主根据个人需求提供电池升级的灵活选择。该公司目前提供标准75 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达310英里，增强型100 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达435英里；两者都可供蔚来车主在BaaS下按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个电池交换站，继蔚来与中石化最近达成战略合作协议后，更多的电池交换站正在建设中。蔚来的车辆还与当地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国164个城市提供的1,140个汽车充电站兼容，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.<blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以在更广泛的电动汽车和技术领域保持竞争力。自2016年以来，蔚来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，并于2018年在北京的公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对未来客运的承诺也通过EVE的开发得到了证明，EVE是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的NOMI AI（世界上第一个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.<blockquote>为了进一步推动自动驾驶技术的进步，蔚来最近与Mobileye合作，Mobileye是一家英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司，以开发“EyeQ芯片”而闻名，目前已被超过27家汽车制造商用于其辅助驾驶技术——开发和商业化不需要人机交互的驾驶自动化（即“4级”自动驾驶）。他们的合作预计将加速蔚来推出“自动驾驶即服务”（“ADaaS”）套餐，这是他们的自动驾驶技术“蔚来自动驾驶”（“NAD”）的每月订阅。然而，与特斯拉的“全自动驾驶”套件类似，预计将于2022年推出的NAD技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实使蔚来在通往4级自动驾驶的竞赛中与行业领导者特斯拉相提并论。蔚来车主将可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。如今上路的蔚来汽车超过10.2万辆，新的订阅套餐预计将产生8.4亿元人民币（1.32亿美元）的年销售额增量；假设大多数现有蔚来车主注册的平均车辆寿命为12年，该服务推出后的额外收入流价值约为100亿元人民币（16亿美元）。</blockquote> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).<blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的不断发展预计将在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求最大的细分市场之一，估计价值为1.6万亿美元。该市场6%的份额将为蔚来现有670亿美元的市值增加至少1000亿美元的估值，使其每股价值超过100美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的全电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长其海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占据上述市场6%以上的份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股股价超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量约为30万辆，总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\">Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（蔚来_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</blockquote> Global Expansion<blockquote>全球扩张</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">Source: ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.<blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破100美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直公开表示其全球扩张的意图，特别是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设首个海外销售及服务中心。该品牌在挪威的足迹将于2022年进一步扩大，将在Bergen、Stavanger、Trondheim和Kristiansand开设四家蔚来商店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将在欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是在挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为新蔚来车主提供该品牌赖以成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰SUV ES 8目前零售价约为67,000美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车ET 7将于2022年紧随其后。</blockquote> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.<blockquote>凭借在中国豪华电动汽车市场的良好销售记录，以及与全球公认的特斯拉相当的规格，蔚来没有理由不在海外取得成功。正如前面提到的，蔚来的车辆充满电后的行驶里程可达435英里，这使得它成为潜在的欧美车主的理想选择，他们正在寻找一个可靠的伴侣来陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的首选相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车不断增长的需求。</blockquote> NIO’s Historical Performance<blockquote>蔚来的历史表现</blockquote> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.<blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销量持续增长，但由于流动性问题，蔚来股价跌至2美元以下的历史低点。2020年年中，中国合肥市政府向蔚来注资70亿元人民币（约合10亿美元）。该安排导致创建了“蔚来中国”，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来90.36%的所有权权益，而“合肥战略投资者”联合体持有馀下9.64%。这种合作关系成为了公司的生命线；额外资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显着改善，这反映在其强劲的财务业绩和2020年夏季股价的上涨趋势上。截至2020年第二季度末，蔚来总收入环比增长171%，股价平均反弹近20%。该公司股价在2020年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均为15.40美元，并继续攀升至第四季度平均38.70美元。截至2021年3月31日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为50.97美元，并在2月份达到近62美元的峰值，是2018年IPO价格的10倍多。该公司目前的市值超过670亿美元，超过了其在纽约证券交易所上市时仅10亿美元的市值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.<blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在2月底成长型股票遭到抛售之前见顶以来，蔚来的基本面也只显示出稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级增长，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，几乎占2020年总交付量的50%。该公司继续展现出乐观的前景，4月份交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长超过125%。得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，蔚来在2021年第一季度的经营活动中也保持了正现金流，这些措施将其毛利率提高至19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者的毛利率相当。第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量将接近30万辆，这意味着总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）（每股18.60美元）。我们最近与合资企业“江淮汽车集团”（“江淮汽车”）续签的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的汽车销售预测，该协议将目前100,000辆的年产能提高到240,000辆；正在建设中的“NeoPark”亦预期将新增100万台的年产能，这进一步支持了我们对蔚来继续致力于发展其业务的积极展望。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为16.43倍，年收入约为420亿美元（第一季度收入年化为103.89亿美元），将相同比例应用于蔚来预测的2025财年总收入预计将产生市盈率8.7倍，股价超过160美元。</blockquote> NIO vs. LI and XPEV<blockquote>蔚来vs.LI和XPEV</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Finviz<blockquote>资料来源：Finviz</blockquote> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.<blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与其国内同行进行了比较，以衡量蔚来股价突破100美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.<blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于LI和XPEV，前者的市盈率应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到18.1倍（XPEV的中点），也将推动该公司当前股价上涨至51.50美元，基于上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日），这意味着22%的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来2025财年收入1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）或每股18.60美元的预测，即使是18.1倍的一半也足以使蔚来的股价在2025年突破160美元；我们认为，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为届时从运营中获得的现金和技术进步将使其走上电动汽车行业持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到2030年及以后，届时该品牌的4级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote> Business Risks and Challenges<blockquote>业务风险及挑战</blockquote> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.<blockquote>正如我在之前关于蔚来的一篇文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“HFCA法案”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB的检查要求；否则，上述事务所审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前由普华永道中天会计师事务所（LLP）进行审计，该事务所被列入PCAOB的拒绝访问名单。如果中国当局和PCAOB不能很快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会成为投资者的威慑因素，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.<blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是持续的全球芯片供应短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的每一项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距越来越大。蔚来也不例外地受到持续的芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，交付量逐月增加就证明了这一点；在蔚来4月份最新的交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长125%。</blockquote> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.<blockquote>近年来，电动汽车行业的竞争也愈演愈烈。在过去十年中，由于对气候变化的日益担忧以及传统汽油燃料汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的进入门槛也大幅降低；随着初始投资变得比2003年特斯拉更加合理，新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动的汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并保持在汽车行业内的竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期保持成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（此处进一步分析）。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.<blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌影响力，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合其生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略的能力，蔚来正在有效缩小与特斯拉在全球电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价中，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，这使其成为值得选择的股票。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148130971","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.\nThe company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.\nWe believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.\n\nPhoto by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nDespite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).\nFounded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.\nA Trailblazer in Innovative Technology\nSource:ir.nio.com\nNIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the 181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are more than 226 battery swapping stations across China, with more on the way following a recent strategic partnership agreement between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.\nIn addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.\nTo further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently partnered with Mobileye – an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.\nNIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).\nSource: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nGlobal Expansion\nSource: ir.nio.com\nAnother catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the ES8, which currently retails at a starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the ET7, to follow in 2022.\nWith a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.\nNIO’s Historical Performance\nJust a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a capital injection of RMB 7 billion (approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.\nSource: Author, with data from ir.nio.com\nNIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the recently renewed manufacturing agreement with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.\nNIO vs. LI and XPEV\nSource: Finviz\nWe have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.\nConsidering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.\nBusiness Risks and Challenges\nAs mentioned in one of my previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.\nAnother imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.\nCompetition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.\nConclusion\nNIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":115185711,"gmtCreate":1622959348033,"gmtModify":1634096559870,"author":{"id":"3582641011550356","authorId":"3582641011550356","name":"CharlieAcv","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582641011550356","authorIdStr":"3582641011550356"},"htmlText":"Leaving a comment&nbsp;","listText":"Leaving a comment&nbsp;","text":"Leaving a comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115185711","repostId":1148130971,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148130971","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622866524,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148130971?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-05 12:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148130971","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fas","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li> <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li> <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\">Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>蔚来的股价在过去一年飙升了816%以上，在3月初的成长股抛售之前，在2月初达到了近62美元的峰值。</li><li>该公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪日益高涨，预计将提振该公司的估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来股价到2025年将飙升至160美元以上。</li></ul>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images新闻来自Getty Images</blockquote> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).<blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来已经在电动汽车行业狂热投资者中获得了国际关注。距离蔚来于2018年中期首次交付仅过去了短短三年，但许多人已经想知道其股价是否能达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的股价超过每股600美元，市值超过6000亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来有潜力在2025年之前突破每股100美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近60美元，根据上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日）计算，该目标价有超过35%的上涨潜力。</blockquote> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.<blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今在华销售和交付汽车已超过10万辆。该公司拥有一支由五款零排放、全电池驱动的车型组成的车队，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将他们的全球扩张计划变成了现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到100美元不再是“如果”的问题，而是“何时”的问题。</blockquote> A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology<blockquote>创新技术的开拓者</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\">Source:ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.<blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池交换技术“Power Swap”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车行驶里程通常有限的问题。与加油站类似，换电是一个电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池使蔚来汽车能够行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车平均行驶里程181英里的两倍多。蔚来车主可以选择订阅“电池即服务”（“BaaS”）套餐，这是一项按月订阅的服务，为蔚来车主根据个人需求提供电池升级的灵活选择。该公司目前提供标准75 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达310英里，增强型100 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达435英里；两者都可供蔚来车主在BaaS下按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个电池交换站，继蔚来与中石化最近达成战略合作协议后，更多的电池交换站正在建设中。蔚来的车辆还与当地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国164个城市提供的1,140个汽车充电站兼容，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.<blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以在更广泛的电动汽车和技术领域保持竞争力。自2016年以来，蔚来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，并于2018年在北京的公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对未来客运的承诺也通过EVE的开发得到了证明，EVE是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的NOMI AI（世界上第一个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.<blockquote>为了进一步推动自动驾驶技术的进步，蔚来最近与Mobileye合作，Mobileye是一家英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司，以开发“EyeQ芯片”而闻名，目前已被超过27家汽车制造商用于其辅助驾驶技术——开发和商业化不需要人机交互的驾驶自动化（即“4级”自动驾驶）。他们的合作预计将加速蔚来推出“自动驾驶即服务”（“ADaaS”）套餐，这是他们的自动驾驶技术“蔚来自动驾驶”（“NAD”）的每月订阅。然而，与特斯拉的“全自动驾驶”套件类似，预计将于2022年推出的NAD技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实使蔚来在通往4级自动驾驶的竞赛中与行业领导者特斯拉相提并论。蔚来车主将可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。如今上路的蔚来汽车超过10.2万辆，新的订阅套餐预计将产生8.4亿元人民币（1.32亿美元）的年销售额增量；假设大多数现有蔚来车主注册的平均车辆寿命为12年，该服务推出后的额外收入流价值约为100亿元人民币（16亿美元）。</blockquote> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).<blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的不断发展预计将在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求最大的细分市场之一，估计价值为1.6万亿美元。该市场6%的份额将为蔚来现有670亿美元的市值增加至少1000亿美元的估值，使其每股价值超过100美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的全电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长其海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占据上述市场6%以上的份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股股价超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量约为30万辆，总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\">Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（蔚来_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</blockquote> Global Expansion<blockquote>全球扩张</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">Source: ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.<blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破100美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直公开表示其全球扩张的意图，特别是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设首个海外销售及服务中心。该品牌在挪威的足迹将于2022年进一步扩大，将在Bergen、Stavanger、Trondheim和Kristiansand开设四家蔚来商店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将在欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是在挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为新蔚来车主提供该品牌赖以成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰SUV ES 8目前零售价约为67,000美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车ET 7将于2022年紧随其后。</blockquote> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.<blockquote>凭借在中国豪华电动汽车市场的良好销售记录，以及与全球公认的特斯拉相当的规格，蔚来没有理由不在海外取得成功。正如前面提到的，蔚来的车辆充满电后的行驶里程可达435英里，这使得它成为潜在的欧美车主的理想选择，他们正在寻找一个可靠的伴侣来陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的首选相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车不断增长的需求。</blockquote> NIO’s Historical Performance<blockquote>蔚来的历史表现</blockquote> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.<blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销量持续增长，但由于流动性问题，蔚来股价跌至2美元以下的历史低点。2020年年中，中国合肥市政府向蔚来注资70亿元人民币（约合10亿美元）。该安排导致创建了“蔚来中国”，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来90.36%的所有权权益，而“合肥战略投资者”联合体持有馀下9.64%。这种合作关系成为了公司的生命线；额外资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显着改善，这反映在其强劲的财务业绩和2020年夏季股价的上涨趋势上。截至2020年第二季度末，蔚来总收入环比增长171%，股价平均反弹近20%。该公司股价在2020年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均为15.40美元，并继续攀升至第四季度平均38.70美元。截至2021年3月31日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为50.97美元，并在2月份达到近62美元的峰值，是2018年IPO价格的10倍多。该公司目前的市值超过670亿美元，超过了其在纽约证券交易所上市时仅10亿美元的市值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.<blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在2月底成长型股票遭到抛售之前见顶以来，蔚来的基本面也只显示出稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级增长，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，几乎占2020年总交付量的50%。该公司继续展现出乐观的前景，4月份交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长超过125%。得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，蔚来在2021年第一季度的经营活动中也保持了正现金流，这些措施将其毛利率提高至19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者的毛利率相当。第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量将接近30万辆，这意味着总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）（每股18.60美元）。我们最近与合资企业“江淮汽车集团”（“江淮汽车”）续签的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的汽车销售预测，该协议将目前100,000辆的年产能提高到240,000辆；正在建设中的“NeoPark”亦预期将新增100万台的年产能，这进一步支持了我们对蔚来继续致力于发展其业务的积极展望。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为16.43倍，年收入约为420亿美元（第一季度收入年化为103.89亿美元），将相同比例应用于蔚来预测的2025财年总收入预计将产生市盈率8.7倍，股价超过160美元。</blockquote> NIO vs. LI and XPEV<blockquote>蔚来vs.LI和XPEV</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Finviz<blockquote>资料来源：Finviz</blockquote> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.<blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与其国内同行进行了比较，以衡量蔚来股价突破100美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.<blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于LI和XPEV，前者的市盈率应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到18.1倍（XPEV的中点），也将推动该公司当前股价上涨至51.50美元，基于上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日），这意味着22%的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来2025财年收入1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）或每股18.60美元的预测，即使是18.1倍的一半也足以使蔚来的股价在2025年突破160美元；我们认为，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为届时从运营中获得的现金和技术进步将使其走上电动汽车行业持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到2030年及以后，届时该品牌的4级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote> Business Risks and Challenges<blockquote>业务风险及挑战</blockquote> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.<blockquote>正如我在之前关于蔚来的一篇文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“HFCA法案”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB的检查要求；否则，上述事务所审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前由普华永道中天会计师事务所（LLP）进行审计，该事务所被列入PCAOB的拒绝访问名单。如果中国当局和PCAOB不能很快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会成为投资者的威慑因素，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.<blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是持续的全球芯片供应短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的每一项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距越来越大。蔚来也不例外地受到持续的芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，交付量逐月增加就证明了这一点；在蔚来4月份最新的交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长125%。</blockquote> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.<blockquote>近年来，电动汽车行业的竞争也愈演愈烈。在过去十年中，由于对气候变化的日益担忧以及传统汽油燃料汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的进入门槛也大幅降低；随着初始投资变得比2003年特斯拉更加合理，新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动的汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并保持在汽车行业内的竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期保持成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（此处进一步分析）。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.<blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌影响力，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合其生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略的能力，蔚来正在有效缩小与特斯拉在全球电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价中，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，这使其成为值得选择的股票。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-06-05 12:15\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li> <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li> <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\">Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>蔚来的股价在过去一年飙升了816%以上，在3月初的成长股抛售之前，在2月初达到了近62美元的峰值。</li><li>该公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪日益高涨，预计将提振该公司的估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来股价到2025年将飙升至160美元以上。</li></ul>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images新闻来自Getty Images</blockquote> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).<blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来已经在电动汽车行业狂热投资者中获得了国际关注。距离蔚来于2018年中期首次交付仅过去了短短三年，但许多人已经想知道其股价是否能达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的股价超过每股600美元，市值超过6000亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来有潜力在2025年之前突破每股100美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近60美元，根据上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日）计算，该目标价有超过35%的上涨潜力。</blockquote> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.<blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今在华销售和交付汽车已超过10万辆。该公司拥有一支由五款零排放、全电池驱动的车型组成的车队，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将他们的全球扩张计划变成了现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到100美元不再是“如果”的问题，而是“何时”的问题。</blockquote> A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology<blockquote>创新技术的开拓者</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\">Source:ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.<blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池交换技术“Power Swap”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车行驶里程通常有限的问题。与加油站类似，换电是一个电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池使蔚来汽车能够行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车平均行驶里程181英里的两倍多。蔚来车主可以选择订阅“电池即服务”（“BaaS”）套餐，这是一项按月订阅的服务，为蔚来车主根据个人需求提供电池升级的灵活选择。该公司目前提供标准75 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达310英里，增强型100 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达435英里；两者都可供蔚来车主在BaaS下按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个电池交换站，继蔚来与中石化最近达成战略合作协议后，更多的电池交换站正在建设中。蔚来的车辆还与当地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国164个城市提供的1,140个汽车充电站兼容，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.<blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以在更广泛的电动汽车和技术领域保持竞争力。自2016年以来，蔚来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，并于2018年在北京的公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对未来客运的承诺也通过EVE的开发得到了证明，EVE是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的NOMI AI（世界上第一个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.<blockquote>为了进一步推动自动驾驶技术的进步，蔚来最近与Mobileye合作，Mobileye是一家英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司，以开发“EyeQ芯片”而闻名，目前已被超过27家汽车制造商用于其辅助驾驶技术——开发和商业化不需要人机交互的驾驶自动化（即“4级”自动驾驶）。他们的合作预计将加速蔚来推出“自动驾驶即服务”（“ADaaS”）套餐，这是他们的自动驾驶技术“蔚来自动驾驶”（“NAD”）的每月订阅。然而，与特斯拉的“全自动驾驶”套件类似，预计将于2022年推出的NAD技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实使蔚来在通往4级自动驾驶的竞赛中与行业领导者特斯拉相提并论。蔚来车主将可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。如今上路的蔚来汽车超过10.2万辆，新的订阅套餐预计将产生8.4亿元人民币（1.32亿美元）的年销售额增量；假设大多数现有蔚来车主注册的平均车辆寿命为12年，该服务推出后的额外收入流价值约为100亿元人民币（16亿美元）。</blockquote> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).<blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的不断发展预计将在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求最大的细分市场之一，估计价值为1.6万亿美元。该市场6%的份额将为蔚来现有670亿美元的市值增加至少1000亿美元的估值，使其每股价值超过100美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的全电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长其海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占据上述市场6%以上的份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股股价超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量约为30万辆，总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\">Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（蔚来_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</blockquote> Global Expansion<blockquote>全球扩张</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">Source: ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.<blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破100美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直公开表示其全球扩张的意图，特别是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设首个海外销售及服务中心。该品牌在挪威的足迹将于2022年进一步扩大，将在Bergen、Stavanger、Trondheim和Kristiansand开设四家蔚来商店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将在欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是在挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为新蔚来车主提供该品牌赖以成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰SUV ES 8目前零售价约为67,000美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车ET 7将于2022年紧随其后。</blockquote> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.<blockquote>凭借在中国豪华电动汽车市场的良好销售记录，以及与全球公认的特斯拉相当的规格，蔚来没有理由不在海外取得成功。正如前面提到的，蔚来的车辆充满电后的行驶里程可达435英里，这使得它成为潜在的欧美车主的理想选择，他们正在寻找一个可靠的伴侣来陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的首选相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车不断增长的需求。</blockquote> NIO’s Historical Performance<blockquote>蔚来的历史表现</blockquote> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.<blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销量持续增长，但由于流动性问题，蔚来股价跌至2美元以下的历史低点。2020年年中，中国合肥市政府向蔚来注资70亿元人民币（约合10亿美元）。该安排导致创建了“蔚来中国”，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来90.36%的所有权权益，而“合肥战略投资者”联合体持有馀下9.64%。这种合作关系成为了公司的生命线；额外资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显着改善，这反映在其强劲的财务业绩和2020年夏季股价的上涨趋势上。截至2020年第二季度末，蔚来总收入环比增长171%，股价平均反弹近20%。该公司股价在2020年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均为15.40美元，并继续攀升至第四季度平均38.70美元。截至2021年3月31日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为50.97美元，并在2月份达到近62美元的峰值，是2018年IPO价格的10倍多。该公司目前的市值超过670亿美元，超过了其在纽约证券交易所上市时仅10亿美元的市值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.<blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在2月底成长型股票遭到抛售之前见顶以来，蔚来的基本面也只显示出稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级增长，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，几乎占2020年总交付量的50%。该公司继续展现出乐观的前景，4月份交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长超过125%。得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，蔚来在2021年第一季度的经营活动中也保持了正现金流，这些措施将其毛利率提高至19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者的毛利率相当。第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量将接近30万辆，这意味着总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）（每股18.60美元）。我们最近与合资企业“江淮汽车集团”（“江淮汽车”）续签的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的汽车销售预测，该协议将目前100,000辆的年产能提高到240,000辆；正在建设中的“NeoPark”亦预期将新增100万台的年产能，这进一步支持了我们对蔚来继续致力于发展其业务的积极展望。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为16.43倍，年收入约为420亿美元（第一季度收入年化为103.89亿美元），将相同比例应用于蔚来预测的2025财年总收入预计将产生市盈率8.7倍，股价超过160美元。</blockquote> NIO vs. LI and XPEV<blockquote>蔚来vs.LI和XPEV</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Finviz<blockquote>资料来源：Finviz</blockquote> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.<blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与其国内同行进行了比较，以衡量蔚来股价突破100美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.<blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于LI和XPEV，前者的市盈率应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到18.1倍（XPEV的中点），也将推动该公司当前股价上涨至51.50美元，基于上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日），这意味着22%的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来2025财年收入1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）或每股18.60美元的预测，即使是18.1倍的一半也足以使蔚来的股价在2025年突破160美元；我们认为，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为届时从运营中获得的现金和技术进步将使其走上电动汽车行业持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到2030年及以后，届时该品牌的4级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote> Business Risks and Challenges<blockquote>业务风险及挑战</blockquote> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.<blockquote>正如我在之前关于蔚来的一篇文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“HFCA法案”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB的检查要求；否则，上述事务所审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前由普华永道中天会计师事务所（LLP）进行审计，该事务所被列入PCAOB的拒绝访问名单。如果中国当局和PCAOB不能很快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会成为投资者的威慑因素，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.<blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是持续的全球芯片供应短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的每一项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距越来越大。蔚来也不例外地受到持续的芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，交付量逐月增加就证明了这一点；在蔚来4月份最新的交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长125%。</blockquote> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.<blockquote>近年来，电动汽车行业的竞争也愈演愈烈。在过去十年中，由于对气候变化的日益担忧以及传统汽油燃料汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的进入门槛也大幅降低；随着初始投资变得比2003年特斯拉更加合理，新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动的汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并保持在汽车行业内的竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期保持成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（此处进一步分析）。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.<blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌影响力，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合其生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略的能力，蔚来正在有效缩小与特斯拉在全球电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价中，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，这使其成为值得选择的股票。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148130971","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.\nThe company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.\nWe believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.\n\nPhoto by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nDespite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).\nFounded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.\nA Trailblazer in Innovative Technology\nSource:ir.nio.com\nNIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the 181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are more than 226 battery swapping stations across China, with more on the way following a recent strategic partnership agreement between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.\nIn addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.\nTo further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently partnered with Mobileye – an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.\nNIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).\nSource: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nGlobal Expansion\nSource: ir.nio.com\nAnother catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the ES8, which currently retails at a starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the ET7, to follow in 2022.\nWith a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.\nNIO’s Historical Performance\nJust a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a capital injection of RMB 7 billion (approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.\nSource: Author, with data from ir.nio.com\nNIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the recently renewed manufacturing agreement with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.\nNIO vs. LI and XPEV\nSource: Finviz\nWe have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.\nConsidering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.\nBusiness Risks and Challenges\nAs mentioned in one of my previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.\nAnother imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.\nCompetition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.\nConclusion\nNIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":115352909,"gmtCreate":1622953406201,"gmtModify":1634096620025,"author":{"id":"3580900560629850","authorId":"3580900560629850","name":"Howhowlee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/822aeb8e69b9aec5e6edcbed4485037d","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3580900560629850","authorIdStr":"3580900560629850"},"htmlText":"🤔 well… let’s c!&nbsp;","listText":"🤔 well… let’s c!&nbsp;","text":"🤔 well… let’s c!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115352909","repostId":1148130971,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148130971","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622866524,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148130971?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-05 12:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148130971","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fas","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li> <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li> <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\">Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>蔚来的股价在过去一年飙升了816%以上，在3月初的成长股抛售之前，在2月初达到了近62美元的峰值。</li><li>该公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪日益高涨，预计将提振该公司的估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来股价到2025年将飙升至160美元以上。</li></ul>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images新闻来自Getty Images</blockquote> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).<blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来已经在电动汽车行业狂热投资者中获得了国际关注。距离蔚来于2018年中期首次交付仅过去了短短三年，但许多人已经想知道其股价是否能达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的股价超过每股600美元，市值超过6000亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来有潜力在2025年之前突破每股100美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近60美元，根据上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日）计算，该目标价有超过35%的上涨潜力。</blockquote> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.<blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今在华销售和交付汽车已超过10万辆。该公司拥有一支由五款零排放、全电池驱动的车型组成的车队，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将他们的全球扩张计划变成了现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到100美元不再是“如果”的问题，而是“何时”的问题。</blockquote> A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology<blockquote>创新技术的开拓者</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\">Source:ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.<blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池交换技术“Power Swap”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车行驶里程通常有限的问题。与加油站类似，换电是一个电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池使蔚来汽车能够行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车平均行驶里程181英里的两倍多。蔚来车主可以选择订阅“电池即服务”（“BaaS”）套餐，这是一项按月订阅的服务，为蔚来车主根据个人需求提供电池升级的灵活选择。该公司目前提供标准75 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达310英里，增强型100 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达435英里；两者都可供蔚来车主在BaaS下按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个电池交换站，继蔚来与中石化最近达成战略合作协议后，更多的电池交换站正在建设中。蔚来的车辆还与当地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国164个城市提供的1,140个汽车充电站兼容，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.<blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以在更广泛的电动汽车和技术领域保持竞争力。自2016年以来，蔚来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，并于2018年在北京的公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对未来客运的承诺也通过EVE的开发得到了证明，EVE是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的NOMI AI（世界上第一个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.<blockquote>为了进一步推动自动驾驶技术的进步，蔚来最近与Mobileye合作，Mobileye是一家英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司，以开发“EyeQ芯片”而闻名，目前已被超过27家汽车制造商用于其辅助驾驶技术——开发和商业化不需要人机交互的驾驶自动化（即“4级”自动驾驶）。他们的合作预计将加速蔚来推出“自动驾驶即服务”（“ADaaS”）套餐，这是他们的自动驾驶技术“蔚来自动驾驶”（“NAD”）的每月订阅。然而，与特斯拉的“全自动驾驶”套件类似，预计将于2022年推出的NAD技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实使蔚来在通往4级自动驾驶的竞赛中与行业领导者特斯拉相提并论。蔚来车主将可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。如今上路的蔚来汽车超过10.2万辆，新的订阅套餐预计将产生8.4亿元人民币（1.32亿美元）的年销售额增量；假设大多数现有蔚来车主注册的平均车辆寿命为12年，该服务推出后的额外收入流价值约为100亿元人民币（16亿美元）。</blockquote> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).<blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的不断发展预计将在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求最大的细分市场之一，估计价值为1.6万亿美元。该市场6%的份额将为蔚来现有670亿美元的市值增加至少1000亿美元的估值，使其每股价值超过100美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的全电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长其海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占据上述市场6%以上的份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股股价超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量约为30万辆，总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\">Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（蔚来_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</blockquote> Global Expansion<blockquote>全球扩张</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">Source: ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.<blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破100美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直公开表示其全球扩张的意图，特别是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设首个海外销售及服务中心。该品牌在挪威的足迹将于2022年进一步扩大，将在Bergen、Stavanger、Trondheim和Kristiansand开设四家蔚来商店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将在欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是在挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为新蔚来车主提供该品牌赖以成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰SUV ES 8目前零售价约为67,000美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车ET 7将于2022年紧随其后。</blockquote> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.<blockquote>凭借在中国豪华电动汽车市场的良好销售记录，以及与全球公认的特斯拉相当的规格，蔚来没有理由不在海外取得成功。正如前面提到的，蔚来的车辆充满电后的行驶里程可达435英里，这使得它成为潜在的欧美车主的理想选择，他们正在寻找一个可靠的伴侣来陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的首选相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车不断增长的需求。</blockquote> NIO’s Historical Performance<blockquote>蔚来的历史表现</blockquote> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.<blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销量持续增长，但由于流动性问题，蔚来股价跌至2美元以下的历史低点。2020年年中，中国合肥市政府向蔚来注资70亿元人民币（约合10亿美元）。该安排导致创建了“蔚来中国”，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来90.36%的所有权权益，而“合肥战略投资者”联合体持有馀下9.64%。这种合作关系成为了公司的生命线；额外资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显着改善，这反映在其强劲的财务业绩和2020年夏季股价的上涨趋势上。截至2020年第二季度末，蔚来总收入环比增长171%，股价平均反弹近20%。该公司股价在2020年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均为15.40美元，并继续攀升至第四季度平均38.70美元。截至2021年3月31日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为50.97美元，并在2月份达到近62美元的峰值，是2018年IPO价格的10倍多。该公司目前的市值超过670亿美元，超过了其在纽约证券交易所上市时仅10亿美元的市值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.<blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在2月底成长型股票遭到抛售之前见顶以来，蔚来的基本面也只显示出稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级增长，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，几乎占2020年总交付量的50%。该公司继续展现出乐观的前景，4月份交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长超过125%。得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，蔚来在2021年第一季度的经营活动中也保持了正现金流，这些措施将其毛利率提高至19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者的毛利率相当。第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量将接近30万辆，这意味着总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）（每股18.60美元）。我们最近与合资企业“江淮汽车集团”（“江淮汽车”）续签的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的汽车销售预测，该协议将目前100,000辆的年产能提高到240,000辆；正在建设中的“NeoPark”亦预期将新增100万台的年产能，这进一步支持了我们对蔚来继续致力于发展其业务的积极展望。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为16.43倍，年收入约为420亿美元（第一季度收入年化为103.89亿美元），将相同比例应用于蔚来预测的2025财年总收入预计将产生市盈率8.7倍，股价超过160美元。</blockquote> NIO vs. LI and XPEV<blockquote>蔚来vs.LI和XPEV</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Finviz<blockquote>资料来源：Finviz</blockquote> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.<blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与其国内同行进行了比较，以衡量蔚来股价突破100美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.<blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于LI和XPEV，前者的市盈率应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到18.1倍（XPEV的中点），也将推动该公司当前股价上涨至51.50美元，基于上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日），这意味着22%的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来2025财年收入1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）或每股18.60美元的预测，即使是18.1倍的一半也足以使蔚来的股价在2025年突破160美元；我们认为，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为届时从运营中获得的现金和技术进步将使其走上电动汽车行业持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到2030年及以后，届时该品牌的4级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote> Business Risks and Challenges<blockquote>业务风险及挑战</blockquote> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.<blockquote>正如我在之前关于蔚来的一篇文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“HFCA法案”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB的检查要求；否则，上述事务所审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前由普华永道中天会计师事务所（LLP）进行审计，该事务所被列入PCAOB的拒绝访问名单。如果中国当局和PCAOB不能很快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会成为投资者的威慑因素，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.<blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是持续的全球芯片供应短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的每一项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距越来越大。蔚来也不例外地受到持续的芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，交付量逐月增加就证明了这一点；在蔚来4月份最新的交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长125%。</blockquote> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.<blockquote>近年来，电动汽车行业的竞争也愈演愈烈。在过去十年中，由于对气候变化的日益担忧以及传统汽油燃料汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的进入门槛也大幅降低；随着初始投资变得比2003年特斯拉更加合理，新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动的汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并保持在汽车行业内的竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期保持成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（此处进一步分析）。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.<blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌影响力，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合其生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略的能力，蔚来正在有效缩小与特斯拉在全球电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价中，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，这使其成为值得选择的股票。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-06-05 12:15\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li> <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li> <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\">Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>蔚来的股价在过去一年飙升了816%以上，在3月初的成长股抛售之前，在2月初达到了近62美元的峰值。</li><li>该公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪日益高涨，预计将提振该公司的估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来股价到2025年将飙升至160美元以上。</li></ul>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images新闻来自Getty Images</blockquote> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).<blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来已经在电动汽车行业狂热投资者中获得了国际关注。距离蔚来于2018年中期首次交付仅过去了短短三年，但许多人已经想知道其股价是否能达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的股价超过每股600美元，市值超过6000亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来有潜力在2025年之前突破每股100美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近60美元，根据上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日）计算，该目标价有超过35%的上涨潜力。</blockquote> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.<blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今在华销售和交付汽车已超过10万辆。该公司拥有一支由五款零排放、全电池驱动的车型组成的车队，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将他们的全球扩张计划变成了现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到100美元不再是“如果”的问题，而是“何时”的问题。</blockquote> A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology<blockquote>创新技术的开拓者</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\">Source:ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.<blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池交换技术“Power Swap”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车行驶里程通常有限的问题。与加油站类似，换电是一个电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池使蔚来汽车能够行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车平均行驶里程181英里的两倍多。蔚来车主可以选择订阅“电池即服务”（“BaaS”）套餐，这是一项按月订阅的服务，为蔚来车主根据个人需求提供电池升级的灵活选择。该公司目前提供标准75 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达310英里，增强型100 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达435英里；两者都可供蔚来车主在BaaS下按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个电池交换站，继蔚来与中石化最近达成战略合作协议后，更多的电池交换站正在建设中。蔚来的车辆还与当地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国164个城市提供的1,140个汽车充电站兼容，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.<blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以在更广泛的电动汽车和技术领域保持竞争力。自2016年以来，蔚来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，并于2018年在北京的公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对未来客运的承诺也通过EVE的开发得到了证明，EVE是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的NOMI AI（世界上第一个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.<blockquote>为了进一步推动自动驾驶技术的进步，蔚来最近与Mobileye合作，Mobileye是一家英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司，以开发“EyeQ芯片”而闻名，目前已被超过27家汽车制造商用于其辅助驾驶技术——开发和商业化不需要人机交互的驾驶自动化（即“4级”自动驾驶）。他们的合作预计将加速蔚来推出“自动驾驶即服务”（“ADaaS”）套餐，这是他们的自动驾驶技术“蔚来自动驾驶”（“NAD”）的每月订阅。然而，与特斯拉的“全自动驾驶”套件类似，预计将于2022年推出的NAD技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实使蔚来在通往4级自动驾驶的竞赛中与行业领导者特斯拉相提并论。蔚来车主将可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。如今上路的蔚来汽车超过10.2万辆，新的订阅套餐预计将产生8.4亿元人民币（1.32亿美元）的年销售额增量；假设大多数现有蔚来车主注册的平均车辆寿命为12年，该服务推出后的额外收入流价值约为100亿元人民币（16亿美元）。</blockquote> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).<blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的不断发展预计将在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求最大的细分市场之一，估计价值为1.6万亿美元。该市场6%的份额将为蔚来现有670亿美元的市值增加至少1000亿美元的估值，使其每股价值超过100美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的全电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长其海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占据上述市场6%以上的份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股股价超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量约为30万辆，总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\">Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（蔚来_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</blockquote> Global Expansion<blockquote>全球扩张</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">Source: ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.<blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破100美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直公开表示其全球扩张的意图，特别是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设首个海外销售及服务中心。该品牌在挪威的足迹将于2022年进一步扩大，将在Bergen、Stavanger、Trondheim和Kristiansand开设四家蔚来商店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将在欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是在挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为新蔚来车主提供该品牌赖以成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰SUV ES 8目前零售价约为67,000美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车ET 7将于2022年紧随其后。</blockquote> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.<blockquote>凭借在中国豪华电动汽车市场的良好销售记录，以及与全球公认的特斯拉相当的规格，蔚来没有理由不在海外取得成功。正如前面提到的，蔚来的车辆充满电后的行驶里程可达435英里，这使得它成为潜在的欧美车主的理想选择，他们正在寻找一个可靠的伴侣来陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的首选相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车不断增长的需求。</blockquote> NIO’s Historical Performance<blockquote>蔚来的历史表现</blockquote> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.<blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销量持续增长，但由于流动性问题，蔚来股价跌至2美元以下的历史低点。2020年年中，中国合肥市政府向蔚来注资70亿元人民币（约合10亿美元）。该安排导致创建了“蔚来中国”，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来90.36%的所有权权益，而“合肥战略投资者”联合体持有馀下9.64%。这种合作关系成为了公司的生命线；额外资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显着改善，这反映在其强劲的财务业绩和2020年夏季股价的上涨趋势上。截至2020年第二季度末，蔚来总收入环比增长171%，股价平均反弹近20%。该公司股价在2020年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均为15.40美元，并继续攀升至第四季度平均38.70美元。截至2021年3月31日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为50.97美元，并在2月份达到近62美元的峰值，是2018年IPO价格的10倍多。该公司目前的市值超过670亿美元，超过了其在纽约证券交易所上市时仅10亿美元的市值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.<blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在2月底成长型股票遭到抛售之前见顶以来，蔚来的基本面也只显示出稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级增长，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，几乎占2020年总交付量的50%。该公司继续展现出乐观的前景，4月份交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长超过125%。得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，蔚来在2021年第一季度的经营活动中也保持了正现金流，这些措施将其毛利率提高至19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者的毛利率相当。第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量将接近30万辆，这意味着总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）（每股18.60美元）。我们最近与合资企业“江淮汽车集团”（“江淮汽车”）续签的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的汽车销售预测，该协议将目前100,000辆的年产能提高到240,000辆；正在建设中的“NeoPark”亦预期将新增100万台的年产能，这进一步支持了我们对蔚来继续致力于发展其业务的积极展望。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为16.43倍，年收入约为420亿美元（第一季度收入年化为103.89亿美元），将相同比例应用于蔚来预测的2025财年总收入预计将产生市盈率8.7倍，股价超过160美元。</blockquote> NIO vs. LI and XPEV<blockquote>蔚来vs.LI和XPEV</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Finviz<blockquote>资料来源：Finviz</blockquote> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.<blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与其国内同行进行了比较，以衡量蔚来股价突破100美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.<blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于LI和XPEV，前者的市盈率应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到18.1倍（XPEV的中点），也将推动该公司当前股价上涨至51.50美元，基于上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日），这意味着22%的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来2025财年收入1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）或每股18.60美元的预测，即使是18.1倍的一半也足以使蔚来的股价在2025年突破160美元；我们认为，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为届时从运营中获得的现金和技术进步将使其走上电动汽车行业持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到2030年及以后，届时该品牌的4级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote> Business Risks and Challenges<blockquote>业务风险及挑战</blockquote> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.<blockquote>正如我在之前关于蔚来的一篇文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“HFCA法案”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB的检查要求；否则，上述事务所审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前由普华永道中天会计师事务所（LLP）进行审计，该事务所被列入PCAOB的拒绝访问名单。如果中国当局和PCAOB不能很快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会成为投资者的威慑因素，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.<blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是持续的全球芯片供应短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的每一项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距越来越大。蔚来也不例外地受到持续的芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，交付量逐月增加就证明了这一点；在蔚来4月份最新的交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长125%。</blockquote> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.<blockquote>近年来，电动汽车行业的竞争也愈演愈烈。在过去十年中，由于对气候变化的日益担忧以及传统汽油燃料汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的进入门槛也大幅降低；随着初始投资变得比2003年特斯拉更加合理，新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动的汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并保持在汽车行业内的竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期保持成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（此处进一步分析）。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.<blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌影响力，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合其生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略的能力，蔚来正在有效缩小与特斯拉在全球电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价中，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，这使其成为值得选择的股票。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148130971","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.\nThe company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.\nWe believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.\n\nPhoto by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nDespite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).\nFounded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.\nA Trailblazer in Innovative Technology\nSource:ir.nio.com\nNIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the 181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are more than 226 battery swapping stations across China, with more on the way following a recent strategic partnership agreement between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.\nIn addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.\nTo further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently partnered with Mobileye – an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.\nNIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).\nSource: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nGlobal Expansion\nSource: ir.nio.com\nAnother catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the ES8, which currently retails at a starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the ET7, to follow in 2022.\nWith a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.\nNIO’s Historical Performance\nJust a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a capital injection of RMB 7 billion (approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.\nSource: Author, with data from ir.nio.com\nNIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the recently renewed manufacturing agreement with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.\nNIO vs. LI and XPEV\nSource: Finviz\nWe have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.\nConsidering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.\nBusiness Risks and Challenges\nAs mentioned in one of my previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.\nAnother imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.\nCompetition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.\nConclusion\nNIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4600213,"gmtCreate":1622954066871,"gmtModify":1635335213129,"authorId":3581993357014262,"author":{"id":3581993357014262,"idStr":"3581993357014262","authorId":3581993357014262,"name":"Slee49","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4a9c556617a3ec3446f5c1c667b4aa0","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":115352909,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Sure [强]","text":"Sure [强]","html":"Sure [强]"},{"id":4665938,"gmtCreate":1623322392987,"gmtModify":1635329367237,"authorId":3582857110073842,"author":{"id":3582857110073842,"idStr":"3582857110073842","authorId":3582857110073842,"name":"alicegcw","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":115352909,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Let c","text":"Let c","html":"Let c"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":115929777,"gmtCreate":1622947021399,"gmtModify":1634096722502,"author":{"id":"3574639507377836","authorId":"3574639507377836","name":"Kikiooi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81135f833a61d8d0899dff1c77b07e72","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574639507377836","authorIdStr":"3574639507377836"},"htmlText":"Cool. Buy?&nbsp;","listText":"Cool. Buy?&nbsp;","text":"Cool. Buy?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115929777","repostId":1148130971,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148130971","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622866524,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148130971?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-05 12:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148130971","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fas","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li> <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li> <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\">Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>蔚来的股价在过去一年飙升了816%以上，在3月初的成长股抛售之前，在2月初达到了近62美元的峰值。</li><li>该公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪日益高涨，预计将提振该公司的估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来股价到2025年将飙升至160美元以上。</li></ul>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images新闻来自Getty Images</blockquote> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).<blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来已经在电动汽车行业狂热投资者中获得了国际关注。距离蔚来于2018年中期首次交付仅过去了短短三年，但许多人已经想知道其股价是否能达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的股价超过每股600美元，市值超过6000亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来有潜力在2025年之前突破每股100美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近60美元，根据上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日）计算，该目标价有超过35%的上涨潜力。</blockquote> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.<blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今在华销售和交付汽车已超过10万辆。该公司拥有一支由五款零排放、全电池驱动的车型组成的车队，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将他们的全球扩张计划变成了现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到100美元不再是“如果”的问题，而是“何时”的问题。</blockquote> A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology<blockquote>创新技术的开拓者</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\">Source:ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.<blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池交换技术“Power Swap”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车行驶里程通常有限的问题。与加油站类似，换电是一个电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池使蔚来汽车能够行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车平均行驶里程181英里的两倍多。蔚来车主可以选择订阅“电池即服务”（“BaaS”）套餐，这是一项按月订阅的服务，为蔚来车主根据个人需求提供电池升级的灵活选择。该公司目前提供标准75 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达310英里，增强型100 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达435英里；两者都可供蔚来车主在BaaS下按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个电池交换站，继蔚来与中石化最近达成战略合作协议后，更多的电池交换站正在建设中。蔚来的车辆还与当地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国164个城市提供的1,140个汽车充电站兼容，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.<blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以在更广泛的电动汽车和技术领域保持竞争力。自2016年以来，蔚来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，并于2018年在北京的公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对未来客运的承诺也通过EVE的开发得到了证明，EVE是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的NOMI AI（世界上第一个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.<blockquote>为了进一步推动自动驾驶技术的进步，蔚来最近与Mobileye合作，Mobileye是一家英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司，以开发“EyeQ芯片”而闻名，目前已被超过27家汽车制造商用于其辅助驾驶技术——开发和商业化不需要人机交互的驾驶自动化（即“4级”自动驾驶）。他们的合作预计将加速蔚来推出“自动驾驶即服务”（“ADaaS”）套餐，这是他们的自动驾驶技术“蔚来自动驾驶”（“NAD”）的每月订阅。然而，与特斯拉的“全自动驾驶”套件类似，预计将于2022年推出的NAD技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实使蔚来在通往4级自动驾驶的竞赛中与行业领导者特斯拉相提并论。蔚来车主将可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。如今上路的蔚来汽车超过10.2万辆，新的订阅套餐预计将产生8.4亿元人民币（1.32亿美元）的年销售额增量；假设大多数现有蔚来车主注册的平均车辆寿命为12年，该服务推出后的额外收入流价值约为100亿元人民币（16亿美元）。</blockquote> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).<blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的不断发展预计将在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求最大的细分市场之一，估计价值为1.6万亿美元。该市场6%的份额将为蔚来现有670亿美元的市值增加至少1000亿美元的估值，使其每股价值超过100美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的全电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长其海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占据上述市场6%以上的份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股股价超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量约为30万辆，总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\">Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（蔚来_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</blockquote> Global Expansion<blockquote>全球扩张</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">Source: ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.<blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破100美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直公开表示其全球扩张的意图，特别是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设首个海外销售及服务中心。该品牌在挪威的足迹将于2022年进一步扩大，将在Bergen、Stavanger、Trondheim和Kristiansand开设四家蔚来商店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将在欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是在挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为新蔚来车主提供该品牌赖以成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰SUV ES 8目前零售价约为67,000美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车ET 7将于2022年紧随其后。</blockquote> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.<blockquote>凭借在中国豪华电动汽车市场的良好销售记录，以及与全球公认的特斯拉相当的规格，蔚来没有理由不在海外取得成功。正如前面提到的，蔚来的车辆充满电后的行驶里程可达435英里，这使得它成为潜在的欧美车主的理想选择，他们正在寻找一个可靠的伴侣来陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的首选相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车不断增长的需求。</blockquote> NIO’s Historical Performance<blockquote>蔚来的历史表现</blockquote> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.<blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销量持续增长，但由于流动性问题，蔚来股价跌至2美元以下的历史低点。2020年年中，中国合肥市政府向蔚来注资70亿元人民币（约合10亿美元）。该安排导致创建了“蔚来中国”，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来90.36%的所有权权益，而“合肥战略投资者”联合体持有馀下9.64%。这种合作关系成为了公司的生命线；额外资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显着改善，这反映在其强劲的财务业绩和2020年夏季股价的上涨趋势上。截至2020年第二季度末，蔚来总收入环比增长171%，股价平均反弹近20%。该公司股价在2020年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均为15.40美元，并继续攀升至第四季度平均38.70美元。截至2021年3月31日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为50.97美元，并在2月份达到近62美元的峰值，是2018年IPO价格的10倍多。该公司目前的市值超过670亿美元，超过了其在纽约证券交易所上市时仅10亿美元的市值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.<blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在2月底成长型股票遭到抛售之前见顶以来，蔚来的基本面也只显示出稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级增长，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，几乎占2020年总交付量的50%。该公司继续展现出乐观的前景，4月份交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长超过125%。得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，蔚来在2021年第一季度的经营活动中也保持了正现金流，这些措施将其毛利率提高至19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者的毛利率相当。第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量将接近30万辆，这意味着总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）（每股18.60美元）。我们最近与合资企业“江淮汽车集团”（“江淮汽车”）续签的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的汽车销售预测，该协议将目前100,000辆的年产能提高到240,000辆；正在建设中的“NeoPark”亦预期将新增100万台的年产能，这进一步支持了我们对蔚来继续致力于发展其业务的积极展望。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为16.43倍，年收入约为420亿美元（第一季度收入年化为103.89亿美元），将相同比例应用于蔚来预测的2025财年总收入预计将产生市盈率8.7倍，股价超过160美元。</blockquote> NIO vs. LI and XPEV<blockquote>蔚来vs.LI和XPEV</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Finviz<blockquote>资料来源：Finviz</blockquote> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.<blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与其国内同行进行了比较，以衡量蔚来股价突破100美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.<blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于LI和XPEV，前者的市盈率应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到18.1倍（XPEV的中点），也将推动该公司当前股价上涨至51.50美元，基于上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日），这意味着22%的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来2025财年收入1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）或每股18.60美元的预测，即使是18.1倍的一半也足以使蔚来的股价在2025年突破160美元；我们认为，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为届时从运营中获得的现金和技术进步将使其走上电动汽车行业持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到2030年及以后，届时该品牌的4级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote> Business Risks and Challenges<blockquote>业务风险及挑战</blockquote> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.<blockquote>正如我在之前关于蔚来的一篇文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“HFCA法案”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB的检查要求；否则，上述事务所审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前由普华永道中天会计师事务所（LLP）进行审计，该事务所被列入PCAOB的拒绝访问名单。如果中国当局和PCAOB不能很快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会成为投资者的威慑因素，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.<blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是持续的全球芯片供应短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的每一项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距越来越大。蔚来也不例外地受到持续的芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，交付量逐月增加就证明了这一点；在蔚来4月份最新的交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长125%。</blockquote> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.<blockquote>近年来，电动汽车行业的竞争也愈演愈烈。在过去十年中，由于对气候变化的日益担忧以及传统汽油燃料汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的进入门槛也大幅降低；随着初始投资变得比2003年特斯拉更加合理，新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动的汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并保持在汽车行业内的竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期保持成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（此处进一步分析）。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.<blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌影响力，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合其生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略的能力，蔚来正在有效缩小与特斯拉在全球电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价中，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，这使其成为值得选择的股票。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-06-05 12:15\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li> <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li> <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\">Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>蔚来的股价在过去一年飙升了816%以上，在3月初的成长股抛售之前，在2月初达到了近62美元的峰值。</li><li>该公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪日益高涨，预计将提振该公司的估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来股价到2025年将飙升至160美元以上。</li></ul>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images新闻来自Getty Images</blockquote> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).<blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来已经在电动汽车行业狂热投资者中获得了国际关注。距离蔚来于2018年中期首次交付仅过去了短短三年，但许多人已经想知道其股价是否能达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的股价超过每股600美元，市值超过6000亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来有潜力在2025年之前突破每股100美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近60美元，根据上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日）计算，该目标价有超过35%的上涨潜力。</blockquote> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.<blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今在华销售和交付汽车已超过10万辆。该公司拥有一支由五款零排放、全电池驱动的车型组成的车队，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将他们的全球扩张计划变成了现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到100美元不再是“如果”的问题，而是“何时”的问题。</blockquote> A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology<blockquote>创新技术的开拓者</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\">Source:ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.<blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池交换技术“Power Swap”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车行驶里程通常有限的问题。与加油站类似，换电是一个电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池使蔚来汽车能够行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车平均行驶里程181英里的两倍多。蔚来车主可以选择订阅“电池即服务”（“BaaS”）套餐，这是一项按月订阅的服务，为蔚来车主根据个人需求提供电池升级的灵活选择。该公司目前提供标准75 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达310英里，增强型100 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达435英里；两者都可供蔚来车主在BaaS下按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个电池交换站，继蔚来与中石化最近达成战略合作协议后，更多的电池交换站正在建设中。蔚来的车辆还与当地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国164个城市提供的1,140个汽车充电站兼容，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.<blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以在更广泛的电动汽车和技术领域保持竞争力。自2016年以来，蔚来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，并于2018年在北京的公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对未来客运的承诺也通过EVE的开发得到了证明，EVE是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的NOMI AI（世界上第一个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.<blockquote>为了进一步推动自动驾驶技术的进步，蔚来最近与Mobileye合作，Mobileye是一家英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司，以开发“EyeQ芯片”而闻名，目前已被超过27家汽车制造商用于其辅助驾驶技术——开发和商业化不需要人机交互的驾驶自动化（即“4级”自动驾驶）。他们的合作预计将加速蔚来推出“自动驾驶即服务”（“ADaaS”）套餐，这是他们的自动驾驶技术“蔚来自动驾驶”（“NAD”）的每月订阅。然而，与特斯拉的“全自动驾驶”套件类似，预计将于2022年推出的NAD技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实使蔚来在通往4级自动驾驶的竞赛中与行业领导者特斯拉相提并论。蔚来车主将可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。如今上路的蔚来汽车超过10.2万辆，新的订阅套餐预计将产生8.4亿元人民币（1.32亿美元）的年销售额增量；假设大多数现有蔚来车主注册的平均车辆寿命为12年，该服务推出后的额外收入流价值约为100亿元人民币（16亿美元）。</blockquote> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).<blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的不断发展预计将在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求最大的细分市场之一，估计价值为1.6万亿美元。该市场6%的份额将为蔚来现有670亿美元的市值增加至少1000亿美元的估值，使其每股价值超过100美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的全电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长其海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占据上述市场6%以上的份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股股价超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量约为30万辆，总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\">Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（蔚来_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</blockquote> Global Expansion<blockquote>全球扩张</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">Source: ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.<blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破100美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直公开表示其全球扩张的意图，特别是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设首个海外销售及服务中心。该品牌在挪威的足迹将于2022年进一步扩大，将在Bergen、Stavanger、Trondheim和Kristiansand开设四家蔚来商店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将在欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是在挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为新蔚来车主提供该品牌赖以成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰SUV ES 8目前零售价约为67,000美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车ET 7将于2022年紧随其后。</blockquote> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.<blockquote>凭借在中国豪华电动汽车市场的良好销售记录，以及与全球公认的特斯拉相当的规格，蔚来没有理由不在海外取得成功。正如前面提到的，蔚来的车辆充满电后的行驶里程可达435英里，这使得它成为潜在的欧美车主的理想选择，他们正在寻找一个可靠的伴侣来陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的首选相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车不断增长的需求。</blockquote> NIO’s Historical Performance<blockquote>蔚来的历史表现</blockquote> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.<blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销量持续增长，但由于流动性问题，蔚来股价跌至2美元以下的历史低点。2020年年中，中国合肥市政府向蔚来注资70亿元人民币（约合10亿美元）。该安排导致创建了“蔚来中国”，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来90.36%的所有权权益，而“合肥战略投资者”联合体持有馀下9.64%。这种合作关系成为了公司的生命线；额外资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显着改善，这反映在其强劲的财务业绩和2020年夏季股价的上涨趋势上。截至2020年第二季度末，蔚来总收入环比增长171%，股价平均反弹近20%。该公司股价在2020年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均为15.40美元，并继续攀升至第四季度平均38.70美元。截至2021年3月31日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为50.97美元，并在2月份达到近62美元的峰值，是2018年IPO价格的10倍多。该公司目前的市值超过670亿美元，超过了其在纽约证券交易所上市时仅10亿美元的市值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.<blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在2月底成长型股票遭到抛售之前见顶以来，蔚来的基本面也只显示出稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级增长，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，几乎占2020年总交付量的50%。该公司继续展现出乐观的前景，4月份交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长超过125%。得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，蔚来在2021年第一季度的经营活动中也保持了正现金流，这些措施将其毛利率提高至19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者的毛利率相当。第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量将接近30万辆，这意味着总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）（每股18.60美元）。我们最近与合资企业“江淮汽车集团”（“江淮汽车”）续签的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的汽车销售预测，该协议将目前100,000辆的年产能提高到240,000辆；正在建设中的“NeoPark”亦预期将新增100万台的年产能，这进一步支持了我们对蔚来继续致力于发展其业务的积极展望。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为16.43倍，年收入约为420亿美元（第一季度收入年化为103.89亿美元），将相同比例应用于蔚来预测的2025财年总收入预计将产生市盈率8.7倍，股价超过160美元。</blockquote> NIO vs. LI and XPEV<blockquote>蔚来vs.LI和XPEV</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Finviz<blockquote>资料来源：Finviz</blockquote> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.<blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与其国内同行进行了比较，以衡量蔚来股价突破100美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.<blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于LI和XPEV，前者的市盈率应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到18.1倍（XPEV的中点），也将推动该公司当前股价上涨至51.50美元，基于上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日），这意味着22%的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来2025财年收入1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）或每股18.60美元的预测，即使是18.1倍的一半也足以使蔚来的股价在2025年突破160美元；我们认为，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为届时从运营中获得的现金和技术进步将使其走上电动汽车行业持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到2030年及以后，届时该品牌的4级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote> Business Risks and Challenges<blockquote>业务风险及挑战</blockquote> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.<blockquote>正如我在之前关于蔚来的一篇文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“HFCA法案”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB的检查要求；否则，上述事务所审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前由普华永道中天会计师事务所（LLP）进行审计，该事务所被列入PCAOB的拒绝访问名单。如果中国当局和PCAOB不能很快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会成为投资者的威慑因素，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.<blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是持续的全球芯片供应短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的每一项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距越来越大。蔚来也不例外地受到持续的芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，交付量逐月增加就证明了这一点；在蔚来4月份最新的交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长125%。</blockquote> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.<blockquote>近年来，电动汽车行业的竞争也愈演愈烈。在过去十年中，由于对气候变化的日益担忧以及传统汽油燃料汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的进入门槛也大幅降低；随着初始投资变得比2003年特斯拉更加合理，新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动的汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并保持在汽车行业内的竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期保持成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（此处进一步分析）。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.<blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌影响力，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合其生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略的能力，蔚来正在有效缩小与特斯拉在全球电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价中，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，这使其成为值得选择的股票。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148130971","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.\nThe company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.\nWe believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.\n\nPhoto by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nDespite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).\nFounded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.\nA Trailblazer in Innovative Technology\nSource:ir.nio.com\nNIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the 181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are more than 226 battery swapping stations across China, with more on the way following a recent strategic partnership agreement between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.\nIn addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.\nTo further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently partnered with Mobileye – an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.\nNIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).\nSource: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nGlobal Expansion\nSource: ir.nio.com\nAnother catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the ES8, which currently retails at a starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the ET7, to follow in 2022.\nWith a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.\nNIO’s Historical Performance\nJust a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a capital injection of RMB 7 billion (approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.\nSource: Author, with data from ir.nio.com\nNIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the recently renewed manufacturing agreement with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.\nNIO vs. LI and XPEV\nSource: Finviz\nWe have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.\nConsidering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.\nBusiness Risks and Challenges\nAs mentioned in one of my previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.\nAnother imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.\nCompetition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.\nConclusion\nNIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":115967977,"gmtCreate":1622946905699,"gmtModify":1634096725320,"author":{"id":"3582285484477860","authorId":"3582285484477860","name":"夜行星","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b30382b13e00165eba468359762783aa","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582285484477860","authorIdStr":"3582285484477860"},"htmlText":"Cool 😎&nbsp;","listText":"Cool 😎&nbsp;","text":"Cool 😎","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115967977","repostId":1148130971,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148130971","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622866524,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148130971?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-05 12:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148130971","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fas","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li> <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li> <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\">Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>蔚来的股价在过去一年飙升了816%以上，在3月初的成长股抛售之前，在2月初达到了近62美元的峰值。</li><li>该公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪日益高涨，预计将提振该公司的估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来股价到2025年将飙升至160美元以上。</li></ul>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images新闻来自Getty Images</blockquote> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).<blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来已经在电动汽车行业狂热投资者中获得了国际关注。距离蔚来于2018年中期首次交付仅过去了短短三年，但许多人已经想知道其股价是否能达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的股价超过每股600美元，市值超过6000亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来有潜力在2025年之前突破每股100美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近60美元，根据上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日）计算，该目标价有超过35%的上涨潜力。</blockquote> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.<blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今在华销售和交付汽车已超过10万辆。该公司拥有一支由五款零排放、全电池驱动的车型组成的车队，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将他们的全球扩张计划变成了现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到100美元不再是“如果”的问题，而是“何时”的问题。</blockquote> A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology<blockquote>创新技术的开拓者</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\">Source:ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.<blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池交换技术“Power Swap”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车行驶里程通常有限的问题。与加油站类似，换电是一个电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池使蔚来汽车能够行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车平均行驶里程181英里的两倍多。蔚来车主可以选择订阅“电池即服务”（“BaaS”）套餐，这是一项按月订阅的服务，为蔚来车主根据个人需求提供电池升级的灵活选择。该公司目前提供标准75 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达310英里，增强型100 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达435英里；两者都可供蔚来车主在BaaS下按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个电池交换站，继蔚来与中石化最近达成战略合作协议后，更多的电池交换站正在建设中。蔚来的车辆还与当地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国164个城市提供的1,140个汽车充电站兼容，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.<blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以在更广泛的电动汽车和技术领域保持竞争力。自2016年以来，蔚来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，并于2018年在北京的公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对未来客运的承诺也通过EVE的开发得到了证明，EVE是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的NOMI AI（世界上第一个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.<blockquote>为了进一步推动自动驾驶技术的进步，蔚来最近与Mobileye合作，Mobileye是一家英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司，以开发“EyeQ芯片”而闻名，目前已被超过27家汽车制造商用于其辅助驾驶技术——开发和商业化不需要人机交互的驾驶自动化（即“4级”自动驾驶）。他们的合作预计将加速蔚来推出“自动驾驶即服务”（“ADaaS”）套餐，这是他们的自动驾驶技术“蔚来自动驾驶”（“NAD”）的每月订阅。然而，与特斯拉的“全自动驾驶”套件类似，预计将于2022年推出的NAD技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实使蔚来在通往4级自动驾驶的竞赛中与行业领导者特斯拉相提并论。蔚来车主将可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。如今上路的蔚来汽车超过10.2万辆，新的订阅套餐预计将产生8.4亿元人民币（1.32亿美元）的年销售额增量；假设大多数现有蔚来车主注册的平均车辆寿命为12年，该服务推出后的额外收入流价值约为100亿元人民币（16亿美元）。</blockquote> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).<blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的不断发展预计将在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求最大的细分市场之一，估计价值为1.6万亿美元。该市场6%的份额将为蔚来现有670亿美元的市值增加至少1000亿美元的估值，使其每股价值超过100美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的全电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长其海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占据上述市场6%以上的份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股股价超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量约为30万辆，总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\">Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（蔚来_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</blockquote> Global Expansion<blockquote>全球扩张</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">Source: ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.<blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破100美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直公开表示其全球扩张的意图，特别是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设首个海外销售及服务中心。该品牌在挪威的足迹将于2022年进一步扩大，将在Bergen、Stavanger、Trondheim和Kristiansand开设四家蔚来商店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将在欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是在挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为新蔚来车主提供该品牌赖以成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰SUV ES 8目前零售价约为67,000美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车ET 7将于2022年紧随其后。</blockquote> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.<blockquote>凭借在中国豪华电动汽车市场的良好销售记录，以及与全球公认的特斯拉相当的规格，蔚来没有理由不在海外取得成功。正如前面提到的，蔚来的车辆充满电后的行驶里程可达435英里，这使得它成为潜在的欧美车主的理想选择，他们正在寻找一个可靠的伴侣来陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的首选相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车不断增长的需求。</blockquote> NIO’s Historical Performance<blockquote>蔚来的历史表现</blockquote> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.<blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销量持续增长，但由于流动性问题，蔚来股价跌至2美元以下的历史低点。2020年年中，中国合肥市政府向蔚来注资70亿元人民币（约合10亿美元）。该安排导致创建了“蔚来中国”，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来90.36%的所有权权益，而“合肥战略投资者”联合体持有馀下9.64%。这种合作关系成为了公司的生命线；额外资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显着改善，这反映在其强劲的财务业绩和2020年夏季股价的上涨趋势上。截至2020年第二季度末，蔚来总收入环比增长171%，股价平均反弹近20%。该公司股价在2020年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均为15.40美元，并继续攀升至第四季度平均38.70美元。截至2021年3月31日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为50.97美元，并在2月份达到近62美元的峰值，是2018年IPO价格的10倍多。该公司目前的市值超过670亿美元，超过了其在纽约证券交易所上市时仅10亿美元的市值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.<blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在2月底成长型股票遭到抛售之前见顶以来，蔚来的基本面也只显示出稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级增长，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，几乎占2020年总交付量的50%。该公司继续展现出乐观的前景，4月份交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长超过125%。得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，蔚来在2021年第一季度的经营活动中也保持了正现金流，这些措施将其毛利率提高至19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者的毛利率相当。第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量将接近30万辆，这意味着总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）（每股18.60美元）。我们最近与合资企业“江淮汽车集团”（“江淮汽车”）续签的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的汽车销售预测，该协议将目前100,000辆的年产能提高到240,000辆；正在建设中的“NeoPark”亦预期将新增100万台的年产能，这进一步支持了我们对蔚来继续致力于发展其业务的积极展望。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为16.43倍，年收入约为420亿美元（第一季度收入年化为103.89亿美元），将相同比例应用于蔚来预测的2025财年总收入预计将产生市盈率8.7倍，股价超过160美元。</blockquote> NIO vs. LI and XPEV<blockquote>蔚来vs.LI和XPEV</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Finviz<blockquote>资料来源：Finviz</blockquote> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.<blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与其国内同行进行了比较，以衡量蔚来股价突破100美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.<blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于LI和XPEV，前者的市盈率应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到18.1倍（XPEV的中点），也将推动该公司当前股价上涨至51.50美元，基于上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日），这意味着22%的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来2025财年收入1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）或每股18.60美元的预测，即使是18.1倍的一半也足以使蔚来的股价在2025年突破160美元；我们认为，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为届时从运营中获得的现金和技术进步将使其走上电动汽车行业持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到2030年及以后，届时该品牌的4级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote> Business Risks and Challenges<blockquote>业务风险及挑战</blockquote> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.<blockquote>正如我在之前关于蔚来的一篇文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“HFCA法案”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB的检查要求；否则，上述事务所审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前由普华永道中天会计师事务所（LLP）进行审计，该事务所被列入PCAOB的拒绝访问名单。如果中国当局和PCAOB不能很快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会成为投资者的威慑因素，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.<blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是持续的全球芯片供应短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的每一项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距越来越大。蔚来也不例外地受到持续的芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，交付量逐月增加就证明了这一点；在蔚来4月份最新的交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长125%。</blockquote> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.<blockquote>近年来，电动汽车行业的竞争也愈演愈烈。在过去十年中，由于对气候变化的日益担忧以及传统汽油燃料汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的进入门槛也大幅降低；随着初始投资变得比2003年特斯拉更加合理，新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动的汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并保持在汽车行业内的竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期保持成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（此处进一步分析）。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.<blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌影响力，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合其生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略的能力，蔚来正在有效缩小与特斯拉在全球电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价中，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，这使其成为值得选择的股票。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-06-05 12:15\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li> <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li> <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\">Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>蔚来的股价在过去一年飙升了816%以上，在3月初的成长股抛售之前，在2月初达到了近62美元的峰值。</li><li>该公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪日益高涨，预计将提振该公司的估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来股价到2025年将飙升至160美元以上。</li></ul>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images新闻来自Getty Images</blockquote> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).<blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来已经在电动汽车行业狂热投资者中获得了国际关注。距离蔚来于2018年中期首次交付仅过去了短短三年，但许多人已经想知道其股价是否能达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的股价超过每股600美元，市值超过6000亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来有潜力在2025年之前突破每股100美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近60美元，根据上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日）计算，该目标价有超过35%的上涨潜力。</blockquote> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.<blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今在华销售和交付汽车已超过10万辆。该公司拥有一支由五款零排放、全电池驱动的车型组成的车队，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将他们的全球扩张计划变成了现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到100美元不再是“如果”的问题，而是“何时”的问题。</blockquote> A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology<blockquote>创新技术的开拓者</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\">Source:ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.<blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池交换技术“Power Swap”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车行驶里程通常有限的问题。与加油站类似，换电是一个电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池使蔚来汽车能够行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车平均行驶里程181英里的两倍多。蔚来车主可以选择订阅“电池即服务”（“BaaS”）套餐，这是一项按月订阅的服务，为蔚来车主根据个人需求提供电池升级的灵活选择。该公司目前提供标准75 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达310英里，增强型100 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达435英里；两者都可供蔚来车主在BaaS下按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个电池交换站，继蔚来与中石化最近达成战略合作协议后，更多的电池交换站正在建设中。蔚来的车辆还与当地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国164个城市提供的1,140个汽车充电站兼容，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.<blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以在更广泛的电动汽车和技术领域保持竞争力。自2016年以来，蔚来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，并于2018年在北京的公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对未来客运的承诺也通过EVE的开发得到了证明，EVE是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的NOMI AI（世界上第一个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.<blockquote>为了进一步推动自动驾驶技术的进步，蔚来最近与Mobileye合作，Mobileye是一家英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司，以开发“EyeQ芯片”而闻名，目前已被超过27家汽车制造商用于其辅助驾驶技术——开发和商业化不需要人机交互的驾驶自动化（即“4级”自动驾驶）。他们的合作预计将加速蔚来推出“自动驾驶即服务”（“ADaaS”）套餐，这是他们的自动驾驶技术“蔚来自动驾驶”（“NAD”）的每月订阅。然而，与特斯拉的“全自动驾驶”套件类似，预计将于2022年推出的NAD技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实使蔚来在通往4级自动驾驶的竞赛中与行业领导者特斯拉相提并论。蔚来车主将可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。如今上路的蔚来汽车超过10.2万辆，新的订阅套餐预计将产生8.4亿元人民币（1.32亿美元）的年销售额增量；假设大多数现有蔚来车主注册的平均车辆寿命为12年，该服务推出后的额外收入流价值约为100亿元人民币（16亿美元）。</blockquote> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).<blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的不断发展预计将在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求最大的细分市场之一，估计价值为1.6万亿美元。该市场6%的份额将为蔚来现有670亿美元的市值增加至少1000亿美元的估值，使其每股价值超过100美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的全电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长其海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占据上述市场6%以上的份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股股价超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量约为30万辆，总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\">Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（蔚来_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</blockquote> Global Expansion<blockquote>全球扩张</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">Source: ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.<blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破100美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直公开表示其全球扩张的意图，特别是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设首个海外销售及服务中心。该品牌在挪威的足迹将于2022年进一步扩大，将在Bergen、Stavanger、Trondheim和Kristiansand开设四家蔚来商店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将在欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是在挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为新蔚来车主提供该品牌赖以成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰SUV ES 8目前零售价约为67,000美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车ET 7将于2022年紧随其后。</blockquote> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.<blockquote>凭借在中国豪华电动汽车市场的良好销售记录，以及与全球公认的特斯拉相当的规格，蔚来没有理由不在海外取得成功。正如前面提到的，蔚来的车辆充满电后的行驶里程可达435英里，这使得它成为潜在的欧美车主的理想选择，他们正在寻找一个可靠的伴侣来陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的首选相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车不断增长的需求。</blockquote> NIO’s Historical Performance<blockquote>蔚来的历史表现</blockquote> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.<blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销量持续增长，但由于流动性问题，蔚来股价跌至2美元以下的历史低点。2020年年中，中国合肥市政府向蔚来注资70亿元人民币（约合10亿美元）。该安排导致创建了“蔚来中国”，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来90.36%的所有权权益，而“合肥战略投资者”联合体持有馀下9.64%。这种合作关系成为了公司的生命线；额外资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显着改善，这反映在其强劲的财务业绩和2020年夏季股价的上涨趋势上。截至2020年第二季度末，蔚来总收入环比增长171%，股价平均反弹近20%。该公司股价在2020年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均为15.40美元，并继续攀升至第四季度平均38.70美元。截至2021年3月31日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为50.97美元，并在2月份达到近62美元的峰值，是2018年IPO价格的10倍多。该公司目前的市值超过670亿美元，超过了其在纽约证券交易所上市时仅10亿美元的市值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.<blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在2月底成长型股票遭到抛售之前见顶以来，蔚来的基本面也只显示出稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级增长，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，几乎占2020年总交付量的50%。该公司继续展现出乐观的前景，4月份交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长超过125%。得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，蔚来在2021年第一季度的经营活动中也保持了正现金流，这些措施将其毛利率提高至19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者的毛利率相当。第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量将接近30万辆，这意味着总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）（每股18.60美元）。我们最近与合资企业“江淮汽车集团”（“江淮汽车”）续签的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的汽车销售预测，该协议将目前100,000辆的年产能提高到240,000辆；正在建设中的“NeoPark”亦预期将新增100万台的年产能，这进一步支持了我们对蔚来继续致力于发展其业务的积极展望。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为16.43倍，年收入约为420亿美元（第一季度收入年化为103.89亿美元），将相同比例应用于蔚来预测的2025财年总收入预计将产生市盈率8.7倍，股价超过160美元。</blockquote> NIO vs. LI and XPEV<blockquote>蔚来vs.LI和XPEV</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Finviz<blockquote>资料来源：Finviz</blockquote> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.<blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与其国内同行进行了比较，以衡量蔚来股价突破100美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.<blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于LI和XPEV，前者的市盈率应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到18.1倍（XPEV的中点），也将推动该公司当前股价上涨至51.50美元，基于上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日），这意味着22%的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来2025财年收入1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）或每股18.60美元的预测，即使是18.1倍的一半也足以使蔚来的股价在2025年突破160美元；我们认为，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为届时从运营中获得的现金和技术进步将使其走上电动汽车行业持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到2030年及以后，届时该品牌的4级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote> Business Risks and Challenges<blockquote>业务风险及挑战</blockquote> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.<blockquote>正如我在之前关于蔚来的一篇文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“HFCA法案”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB的检查要求；否则，上述事务所审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前由普华永道中天会计师事务所（LLP）进行审计，该事务所被列入PCAOB的拒绝访问名单。如果中国当局和PCAOB不能很快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会成为投资者的威慑因素，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.<blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是持续的全球芯片供应短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的每一项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距越来越大。蔚来也不例外地受到持续的芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，交付量逐月增加就证明了这一点；在蔚来4月份最新的交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长125%。</blockquote> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.<blockquote>近年来，电动汽车行业的竞争也愈演愈烈。在过去十年中，由于对气候变化的日益担忧以及传统汽油燃料汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的进入门槛也大幅降低；随着初始投资变得比2003年特斯拉更加合理，新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动的汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并保持在汽车行业内的竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期保持成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（此处进一步分析）。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.<blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌影响力，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合其生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略的能力，蔚来正在有效缩小与特斯拉在全球电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价中，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，这使其成为值得选择的股票。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148130971","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.\nThe company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.\nWe believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.\n\nPhoto by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nDespite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).\nFounded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.\nA Trailblazer in Innovative Technology\nSource:ir.nio.com\nNIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the 181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are more than 226 battery swapping stations across China, with more on the way following a recent strategic partnership agreement between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.\nIn addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.\nTo further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently partnered with Mobileye – an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.\nNIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).\nSource: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nGlobal Expansion\nSource: ir.nio.com\nAnother catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the ES8, which currently retails at a starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the ET7, to follow in 2022.\nWith a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.\nNIO’s Historical Performance\nJust a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a capital injection of RMB 7 billion (approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.\nSource: Author, with data from ir.nio.com\nNIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the recently renewed manufacturing agreement with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.\nNIO vs. LI and XPEV\nSource: Finviz\nWe have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.\nConsidering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.\nBusiness Risks and Challenges\nAs mentioned in one of my previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.\nAnother imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.\nCompetition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.\nConclusion\nNIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":115987934,"gmtCreate":1622946526428,"gmtModify":1634096734427,"author":{"id":"3573818563583937","authorId":"3573818563583937","name":"Starbucks","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adf9c30b19f3cc477ca4f1198d2c8b81","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3573818563583937","authorIdStr":"3573818563583937"},"htmlText":"Yay! <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>to the moon! [Happy]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"Yay! <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>to the moon! [Happy]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","text":"Yay! $NIO Inc.(NIO)$to the moon! [Happy] [Miser] [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115987934","repostId":1148130971,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148130971","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622866524,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148130971?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-05 12:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148130971","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fas","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li> <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li> <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\">Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>蔚来的股价在过去一年飙升了816%以上，在3月初的成长股抛售之前，在2月初达到了近62美元的峰值。</li><li>该公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪日益高涨，预计将提振该公司的估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来股价到2025年将飙升至160美元以上。</li></ul>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images新闻来自Getty Images</blockquote> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).<blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来已经在电动汽车行业狂热投资者中获得了国际关注。距离蔚来于2018年中期首次交付仅过去了短短三年，但许多人已经想知道其股价是否能达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的股价超过每股600美元，市值超过6000亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来有潜力在2025年之前突破每股100美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近60美元，根据上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日）计算，该目标价有超过35%的上涨潜力。</blockquote> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.<blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今在华销售和交付汽车已超过10万辆。该公司拥有一支由五款零排放、全电池驱动的车型组成的车队，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将他们的全球扩张计划变成了现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到100美元不再是“如果”的问题，而是“何时”的问题。</blockquote> A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology<blockquote>创新技术的开拓者</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\">Source:ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.<blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池交换技术“Power Swap”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车行驶里程通常有限的问题。与加油站类似，换电是一个电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池使蔚来汽车能够行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车平均行驶里程181英里的两倍多。蔚来车主可以选择订阅“电池即服务”（“BaaS”）套餐，这是一项按月订阅的服务，为蔚来车主根据个人需求提供电池升级的灵活选择。该公司目前提供标准75 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达310英里，增强型100 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达435英里；两者都可供蔚来车主在BaaS下按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个电池交换站，继蔚来与中石化最近达成战略合作协议后，更多的电池交换站正在建设中。蔚来的车辆还与当地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国164个城市提供的1,140个汽车充电站兼容，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.<blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以在更广泛的电动汽车和技术领域保持竞争力。自2016年以来，蔚来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，并于2018年在北京的公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对未来客运的承诺也通过EVE的开发得到了证明，EVE是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的NOMI AI（世界上第一个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.<blockquote>为了进一步推动自动驾驶技术的进步，蔚来最近与Mobileye合作，Mobileye是一家英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司，以开发“EyeQ芯片”而闻名，目前已被超过27家汽车制造商用于其辅助驾驶技术——开发和商业化不需要人机交互的驾驶自动化（即“4级”自动驾驶）。他们的合作预计将加速蔚来推出“自动驾驶即服务”（“ADaaS”）套餐，这是他们的自动驾驶技术“蔚来自动驾驶”（“NAD”）的每月订阅。然而，与特斯拉的“全自动驾驶”套件类似，预计将于2022年推出的NAD技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实使蔚来在通往4级自动驾驶的竞赛中与行业领导者特斯拉相提并论。蔚来车主将可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。如今上路的蔚来汽车超过10.2万辆，新的订阅套餐预计将产生8.4亿元人民币（1.32亿美元）的年销售额增量；假设大多数现有蔚来车主注册的平均车辆寿命为12年，该服务推出后的额外收入流价值约为100亿元人民币（16亿美元）。</blockquote> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).<blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的不断发展预计将在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求最大的细分市场之一，估计价值为1.6万亿美元。该市场6%的份额将为蔚来现有670亿美元的市值增加至少1000亿美元的估值，使其每股价值超过100美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的全电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长其海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占据上述市场6%以上的份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股股价超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量约为30万辆，总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\">Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（蔚来_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</blockquote> Global Expansion<blockquote>全球扩张</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">Source: ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.<blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破100美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直公开表示其全球扩张的意图，特别是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设首个海外销售及服务中心。该品牌在挪威的足迹将于2022年进一步扩大，将在Bergen、Stavanger、Trondheim和Kristiansand开设四家蔚来商店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将在欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是在挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为新蔚来车主提供该品牌赖以成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰SUV ES 8目前零售价约为67,000美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车ET 7将于2022年紧随其后。</blockquote> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.<blockquote>凭借在中国豪华电动汽车市场的良好销售记录，以及与全球公认的特斯拉相当的规格，蔚来没有理由不在海外取得成功。正如前面提到的，蔚来的车辆充满电后的行驶里程可达435英里，这使得它成为潜在的欧美车主的理想选择，他们正在寻找一个可靠的伴侣来陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的首选相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车不断增长的需求。</blockquote> NIO’s Historical Performance<blockquote>蔚来的历史表现</blockquote> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.<blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销量持续增长，但由于流动性问题，蔚来股价跌至2美元以下的历史低点。2020年年中，中国合肥市政府向蔚来注资70亿元人民币（约合10亿美元）。该安排导致创建了“蔚来中国”，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来90.36%的所有权权益，而“合肥战略投资者”联合体持有馀下9.64%。这种合作关系成为了公司的生命线；额外资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显着改善，这反映在其强劲的财务业绩和2020年夏季股价的上涨趋势上。截至2020年第二季度末，蔚来总收入环比增长171%，股价平均反弹近20%。该公司股价在2020年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均为15.40美元，并继续攀升至第四季度平均38.70美元。截至2021年3月31日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为50.97美元，并在2月份达到近62美元的峰值，是2018年IPO价格的10倍多。该公司目前的市值超过670亿美元，超过了其在纽约证券交易所上市时仅10亿美元的市值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.<blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在2月底成长型股票遭到抛售之前见顶以来，蔚来的基本面也只显示出稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级增长，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，几乎占2020年总交付量的50%。该公司继续展现出乐观的前景，4月份交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长超过125%。得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，蔚来在2021年第一季度的经营活动中也保持了正现金流，这些措施将其毛利率提高至19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者的毛利率相当。第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量将接近30万辆，这意味着总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）（每股18.60美元）。我们最近与合资企业“江淮汽车集团”（“江淮汽车”）续签的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的汽车销售预测，该协议将目前100,000辆的年产能提高到240,000辆；正在建设中的“NeoPark”亦预期将新增100万台的年产能，这进一步支持了我们对蔚来继续致力于发展其业务的积极展望。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为16.43倍，年收入约为420亿美元（第一季度收入年化为103.89亿美元），将相同比例应用于蔚来预测的2025财年总收入预计将产生市盈率8.7倍，股价超过160美元。</blockquote> NIO vs. LI and XPEV<blockquote>蔚来vs.LI和XPEV</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Finviz<blockquote>资料来源：Finviz</blockquote> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.<blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与其国内同行进行了比较，以衡量蔚来股价突破100美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.<blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于LI和XPEV，前者的市盈率应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到18.1倍（XPEV的中点），也将推动该公司当前股价上涨至51.50美元，基于上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日），这意味着22%的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来2025财年收入1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）或每股18.60美元的预测，即使是18.1倍的一半也足以使蔚来的股价在2025年突破160美元；我们认为，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为届时从运营中获得的现金和技术进步将使其走上电动汽车行业持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到2030年及以后，届时该品牌的4级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote> Business Risks and Challenges<blockquote>业务风险及挑战</blockquote> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.<blockquote>正如我在之前关于蔚来的一篇文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“HFCA法案”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB的检查要求；否则，上述事务所审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前由普华永道中天会计师事务所（LLP）进行审计，该事务所被列入PCAOB的拒绝访问名单。如果中国当局和PCAOB不能很快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会成为投资者的威慑因素，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.<blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是持续的全球芯片供应短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的每一项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距越来越大。蔚来也不例外地受到持续的芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，交付量逐月增加就证明了这一点；在蔚来4月份最新的交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长125%。</blockquote> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.<blockquote>近年来，电动汽车行业的竞争也愈演愈烈。在过去十年中，由于对气候变化的日益担忧以及传统汽油燃料汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的进入门槛也大幅降低；随着初始投资变得比2003年特斯拉更加合理，新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动的汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并保持在汽车行业内的竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期保持成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（此处进一步分析）。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.<blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌影响力，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合其生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略的能力，蔚来正在有效缩小与特斯拉在全球电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价中，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，这使其成为值得选择的股票。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-06-05 12:15\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li> <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li> <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\">Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>蔚来的股价在过去一年飙升了816%以上，在3月初的成长股抛售之前，在2月初达到了近62美元的峰值。</li><li>该公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪日益高涨，预计将提振该公司的估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来股价到2025年将飙升至160美元以上。</li></ul>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images新闻来自Getty Images</blockquote> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).<blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来已经在电动汽车行业狂热投资者中获得了国际关注。距离蔚来于2018年中期首次交付仅过去了短短三年，但许多人已经想知道其股价是否能达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的股价超过每股600美元，市值超过6000亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来有潜力在2025年之前突破每股100美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近60美元，根据上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日）计算，该目标价有超过35%的上涨潜力。</blockquote> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.<blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今在华销售和交付汽车已超过10万辆。该公司拥有一支由五款零排放、全电池驱动的车型组成的车队，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将他们的全球扩张计划变成了现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到100美元不再是“如果”的问题，而是“何时”的问题。</blockquote> A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology<blockquote>创新技术的开拓者</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\">Source:ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.<blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池交换技术“Power Swap”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车行驶里程通常有限的问题。与加油站类似，换电是一个电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池使蔚来汽车能够行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车平均行驶里程181英里的两倍多。蔚来车主可以选择订阅“电池即服务”（“BaaS”）套餐，这是一项按月订阅的服务，为蔚来车主根据个人需求提供电池升级的灵活选择。该公司目前提供标准75 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达310英里，增强型100 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达435英里；两者都可供蔚来车主在BaaS下按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个电池交换站，继蔚来与中石化最近达成战略合作协议后，更多的电池交换站正在建设中。蔚来的车辆还与当地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国164个城市提供的1,140个汽车充电站兼容，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.<blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以在更广泛的电动汽车和技术领域保持竞争力。自2016年以来，蔚来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，并于2018年在北京的公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对未来客运的承诺也通过EVE的开发得到了证明，EVE是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的NOMI AI（世界上第一个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.<blockquote>为了进一步推动自动驾驶技术的进步，蔚来最近与Mobileye合作，Mobileye是一家英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司，以开发“EyeQ芯片”而闻名，目前已被超过27家汽车制造商用于其辅助驾驶技术——开发和商业化不需要人机交互的驾驶自动化（即“4级”自动驾驶）。他们的合作预计将加速蔚来推出“自动驾驶即服务”（“ADaaS”）套餐，这是他们的自动驾驶技术“蔚来自动驾驶”（“NAD”）的每月订阅。然而，与特斯拉的“全自动驾驶”套件类似，预计将于2022年推出的NAD技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实使蔚来在通往4级自动驾驶的竞赛中与行业领导者特斯拉相提并论。蔚来车主将可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。如今上路的蔚来汽车超过10.2万辆，新的订阅套餐预计将产生8.4亿元人民币（1.32亿美元）的年销售额增量；假设大多数现有蔚来车主注册的平均车辆寿命为12年，该服务推出后的额外收入流价值约为100亿元人民币（16亿美元）。</blockquote> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).<blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的不断发展预计将在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求最大的细分市场之一，估计价值为1.6万亿美元。该市场6%的份额将为蔚来现有670亿美元的市值增加至少1000亿美元的估值，使其每股价值超过100美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的全电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长其海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占据上述市场6%以上的份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股股价超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量约为30万辆，总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\">Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（蔚来_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</blockquote> Global Expansion<blockquote>全球扩张</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">Source: ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.<blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破100美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直公开表示其全球扩张的意图，特别是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设首个海外销售及服务中心。该品牌在挪威的足迹将于2022年进一步扩大，将在Bergen、Stavanger、Trondheim和Kristiansand开设四家蔚来商店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将在欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是在挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为新蔚来车主提供该品牌赖以成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰SUV ES 8目前零售价约为67,000美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车ET 7将于2022年紧随其后。</blockquote> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.<blockquote>凭借在中国豪华电动汽车市场的良好销售记录，以及与全球公认的特斯拉相当的规格，蔚来没有理由不在海外取得成功。正如前面提到的，蔚来的车辆充满电后的行驶里程可达435英里，这使得它成为潜在的欧美车主的理想选择，他们正在寻找一个可靠的伴侣来陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的首选相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车不断增长的需求。</blockquote> NIO’s Historical Performance<blockquote>蔚来的历史表现</blockquote> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.<blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销量持续增长，但由于流动性问题，蔚来股价跌至2美元以下的历史低点。2020年年中，中国合肥市政府向蔚来注资70亿元人民币（约合10亿美元）。该安排导致创建了“蔚来中国”，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来90.36%的所有权权益，而“合肥战略投资者”联合体持有馀下9.64%。这种合作关系成为了公司的生命线；额外资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显着改善，这反映在其强劲的财务业绩和2020年夏季股价的上涨趋势上。截至2020年第二季度末，蔚来总收入环比增长171%，股价平均反弹近20%。该公司股价在2020年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均为15.40美元，并继续攀升至第四季度平均38.70美元。截至2021年3月31日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为50.97美元，并在2月份达到近62美元的峰值，是2018年IPO价格的10倍多。该公司目前的市值超过670亿美元，超过了其在纽约证券交易所上市时仅10亿美元的市值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.<blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在2月底成长型股票遭到抛售之前见顶以来，蔚来的基本面也只显示出稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级增长，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，几乎占2020年总交付量的50%。该公司继续展现出乐观的前景，4月份交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长超过125%。得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，蔚来在2021年第一季度的经营活动中也保持了正现金流，这些措施将其毛利率提高至19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者的毛利率相当。第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量将接近30万辆，这意味着总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）（每股18.60美元）。我们最近与合资企业“江淮汽车集团”（“江淮汽车”）续签的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的汽车销售预测，该协议将目前100,000辆的年产能提高到240,000辆；正在建设中的“NeoPark”亦预期将新增100万台的年产能，这进一步支持了我们对蔚来继续致力于发展其业务的积极展望。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为16.43倍，年收入约为420亿美元（第一季度收入年化为103.89亿美元），将相同比例应用于蔚来预测的2025财年总收入预计将产生市盈率8.7倍，股价超过160美元。</blockquote> NIO vs. LI and XPEV<blockquote>蔚来vs.LI和XPEV</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Finviz<blockquote>资料来源：Finviz</blockquote> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.<blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与其国内同行进行了比较，以衡量蔚来股价突破100美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.<blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于LI和XPEV，前者的市盈率应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到18.1倍（XPEV的中点），也将推动该公司当前股价上涨至51.50美元，基于上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日），这意味着22%的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来2025财年收入1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）或每股18.60美元的预测，即使是18.1倍的一半也足以使蔚来的股价在2025年突破160美元；我们认为，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为届时从运营中获得的现金和技术进步将使其走上电动汽车行业持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到2030年及以后，届时该品牌的4级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote> Business Risks and Challenges<blockquote>业务风险及挑战</blockquote> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.<blockquote>正如我在之前关于蔚来的一篇文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“HFCA法案”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB的检查要求；否则，上述事务所审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前由普华永道中天会计师事务所（LLP）进行审计，该事务所被列入PCAOB的拒绝访问名单。如果中国当局和PCAOB不能很快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会成为投资者的威慑因素，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.<blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是持续的全球芯片供应短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的每一项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距越来越大。蔚来也不例外地受到持续的芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，交付量逐月增加就证明了这一点；在蔚来4月份最新的交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长125%。</blockquote> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.<blockquote>近年来，电动汽车行业的竞争也愈演愈烈。在过去十年中，由于对气候变化的日益担忧以及传统汽油燃料汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的进入门槛也大幅降低；随着初始投资变得比2003年特斯拉更加合理，新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动的汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并保持在汽车行业内的竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期保持成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（此处进一步分析）。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.<blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌影响力，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合其生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略的能力，蔚来正在有效缩小与特斯拉在全球电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价中，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，这使其成为值得选择的股票。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148130971","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.\nThe company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.\nWe believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.\n\nPhoto by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nDespite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).\nFounded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.\nA Trailblazer in Innovative Technology\nSource:ir.nio.com\nNIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the 181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are more than 226 battery swapping stations across China, with more on the way following a recent strategic partnership agreement between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.\nIn addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.\nTo further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently partnered with Mobileye – an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.\nNIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).\nSource: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nGlobal Expansion\nSource: ir.nio.com\nAnother catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the ES8, which currently retails at a starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the ET7, to follow in 2022.\nWith a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.\nNIO’s Historical Performance\nJust a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a capital injection of RMB 7 billion (approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.\nSource: Author, with data from ir.nio.com\nNIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the recently renewed manufacturing agreement with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.\nNIO vs. LI and XPEV\nSource: Finviz\nWe have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.\nConsidering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.\nBusiness Risks and Challenges\nAs mentioned in one of my previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.\nAnother imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.\nCompetition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.\nConclusion\nNIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4599612,"gmtCreate":1622951731757,"gmtModify":1635335278462,"authorId":3573809317992460,"author":{"id":3573809317992460,"idStr":"3573809317992460","authorId":3573809317992460,"name":"Nobi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6f79f8404d0e36885a520438a78cd94","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":115987934,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"nio stock is space rocket? haha 🚀","text":"nio stock is space rocket? haha 🚀","html":"nio stock is space rocket? haha 🚀"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":115917854,"gmtCreate":1622946099378,"gmtModify":1634096743433,"author":{"id":"3576583202640797","authorId":"3576583202640797","name":"NKT9493","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6332e9e73fa2d969a123da1e4579ec09","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576583202640797","authorIdStr":"3576583202640797"},"htmlText":"It will become a trillion dollar company by 2030-2035","listText":"It will become a trillion dollar company by 2030-2035","text":"It will become a trillion dollar company by 2030-2035","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115917854","repostId":1148130971,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148130971","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622866524,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148130971?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-05 12:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148130971","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fas","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li> <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li> <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\">Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>蔚来的股价在过去一年飙升了816%以上，在3月初的成长股抛售之前，在2月初达到了近62美元的峰值。</li><li>该公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪日益高涨，预计将提振该公司的估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来股价到2025年将飙升至160美元以上。</li></ul>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images新闻来自Getty Images</blockquote> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).<blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来已经在电动汽车行业狂热投资者中获得了国际关注。距离蔚来于2018年中期首次交付仅过去了短短三年，但许多人已经想知道其股价是否能达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的股价超过每股600美元，市值超过6000亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来有潜力在2025年之前突破每股100美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近60美元，根据上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日）计算，该目标价有超过35%的上涨潜力。</blockquote> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.<blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今在华销售和交付汽车已超过10万辆。该公司拥有一支由五款零排放、全电池驱动的车型组成的车队，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将他们的全球扩张计划变成了现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到100美元不再是“如果”的问题，而是“何时”的问题。</blockquote> A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology<blockquote>创新技术的开拓者</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\">Source:ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.<blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池交换技术“Power Swap”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车行驶里程通常有限的问题。与加油站类似，换电是一个电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池使蔚来汽车能够行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车平均行驶里程181英里的两倍多。蔚来车主可以选择订阅“电池即服务”（“BaaS”）套餐，这是一项按月订阅的服务，为蔚来车主根据个人需求提供电池升级的灵活选择。该公司目前提供标准75 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达310英里，增强型100 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达435英里；两者都可供蔚来车主在BaaS下按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个电池交换站，继蔚来与中石化最近达成战略合作协议后，更多的电池交换站正在建设中。蔚来的车辆还与当地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国164个城市提供的1,140个汽车充电站兼容，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.<blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以在更广泛的电动汽车和技术领域保持竞争力。自2016年以来，蔚来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，并于2018年在北京的公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对未来客运的承诺也通过EVE的开发得到了证明，EVE是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的NOMI AI（世界上第一个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.<blockquote>为了进一步推动自动驾驶技术的进步，蔚来最近与Mobileye合作，Mobileye是一家英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司，以开发“EyeQ芯片”而闻名，目前已被超过27家汽车制造商用于其辅助驾驶技术——开发和商业化不需要人机交互的驾驶自动化（即“4级”自动驾驶）。他们的合作预计将加速蔚来推出“自动驾驶即服务”（“ADaaS”）套餐，这是他们的自动驾驶技术“蔚来自动驾驶”（“NAD”）的每月订阅。然而，与特斯拉的“全自动驾驶”套件类似，预计将于2022年推出的NAD技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实使蔚来在通往4级自动驾驶的竞赛中与行业领导者特斯拉相提并论。蔚来车主将可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。如今上路的蔚来汽车超过10.2万辆，新的订阅套餐预计将产生8.4亿元人民币（1.32亿美元）的年销售额增量；假设大多数现有蔚来车主注册的平均车辆寿命为12年，该服务推出后的额外收入流价值约为100亿元人民币（16亿美元）。</blockquote> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).<blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的不断发展预计将在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求最大的细分市场之一，估计价值为1.6万亿美元。该市场6%的份额将为蔚来现有670亿美元的市值增加至少1000亿美元的估值，使其每股价值超过100美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的全电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长其海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占据上述市场6%以上的份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股股价超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量约为30万辆，总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\">Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（蔚来_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</blockquote> Global Expansion<blockquote>全球扩张</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">Source: ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.<blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破100美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直公开表示其全球扩张的意图，特别是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设首个海外销售及服务中心。该品牌在挪威的足迹将于2022年进一步扩大，将在Bergen、Stavanger、Trondheim和Kristiansand开设四家蔚来商店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将在欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是在挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为新蔚来车主提供该品牌赖以成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰SUV ES 8目前零售价约为67,000美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车ET 7将于2022年紧随其后。</blockquote> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.<blockquote>凭借在中国豪华电动汽车市场的良好销售记录，以及与全球公认的特斯拉相当的规格，蔚来没有理由不在海外取得成功。正如前面提到的，蔚来的车辆充满电后的行驶里程可达435英里，这使得它成为潜在的欧美车主的理想选择，他们正在寻找一个可靠的伴侣来陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的首选相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车不断增长的需求。</blockquote> NIO’s Historical Performance<blockquote>蔚来的历史表现</blockquote> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.<blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销量持续增长，但由于流动性问题，蔚来股价跌至2美元以下的历史低点。2020年年中，中国合肥市政府向蔚来注资70亿元人民币（约合10亿美元）。该安排导致创建了“蔚来中国”，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来90.36%的所有权权益，而“合肥战略投资者”联合体持有馀下9.64%。这种合作关系成为了公司的生命线；额外资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显着改善，这反映在其强劲的财务业绩和2020年夏季股价的上涨趋势上。截至2020年第二季度末，蔚来总收入环比增长171%，股价平均反弹近20%。该公司股价在2020年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均为15.40美元，并继续攀升至第四季度平均38.70美元。截至2021年3月31日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为50.97美元，并在2月份达到近62美元的峰值，是2018年IPO价格的10倍多。该公司目前的市值超过670亿美元，超过了其在纽约证券交易所上市时仅10亿美元的市值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.<blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在2月底成长型股票遭到抛售之前见顶以来，蔚来的基本面也只显示出稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级增长，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，几乎占2020年总交付量的50%。该公司继续展现出乐观的前景，4月份交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长超过125%。得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，蔚来在2021年第一季度的经营活动中也保持了正现金流，这些措施将其毛利率提高至19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者的毛利率相当。第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量将接近30万辆，这意味着总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）（每股18.60美元）。我们最近与合资企业“江淮汽车集团”（“江淮汽车”）续签的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的汽车销售预测，该协议将目前100,000辆的年产能提高到240,000辆；正在建设中的“NeoPark”亦预期将新增100万台的年产能，这进一步支持了我们对蔚来继续致力于发展其业务的积极展望。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为16.43倍，年收入约为420亿美元（第一季度收入年化为103.89亿美元），将相同比例应用于蔚来预测的2025财年总收入预计将产生市盈率8.7倍，股价超过160美元。</blockquote> NIO vs. LI and XPEV<blockquote>蔚来vs.LI和XPEV</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Finviz<blockquote>资料来源：Finviz</blockquote> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.<blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与其国内同行进行了比较，以衡量蔚来股价突破100美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.<blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于LI和XPEV，前者的市盈率应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到18.1倍（XPEV的中点），也将推动该公司当前股价上涨至51.50美元，基于上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日），这意味着22%的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来2025财年收入1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）或每股18.60美元的预测，即使是18.1倍的一半也足以使蔚来的股价在2025年突破160美元；我们认为，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为届时从运营中获得的现金和技术进步将使其走上电动汽车行业持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到2030年及以后，届时该品牌的4级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote> Business Risks and Challenges<blockquote>业务风险及挑战</blockquote> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.<blockquote>正如我在之前关于蔚来的一篇文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“HFCA法案”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB的检查要求；否则，上述事务所审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前由普华永道中天会计师事务所（LLP）进行审计，该事务所被列入PCAOB的拒绝访问名单。如果中国当局和PCAOB不能很快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会成为投资者的威慑因素，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.<blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是持续的全球芯片供应短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的每一项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距越来越大。蔚来也不例外地受到持续的芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，交付量逐月增加就证明了这一点；在蔚来4月份最新的交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长125%。</blockquote> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.<blockquote>近年来，电动汽车行业的竞争也愈演愈烈。在过去十年中，由于对气候变化的日益担忧以及传统汽油燃料汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的进入门槛也大幅降低；随着初始投资变得比2003年特斯拉更加合理，新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动的汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并保持在汽车行业内的竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期保持成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（此处进一步分析）。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.<blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌影响力，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合其生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略的能力，蔚来正在有效缩小与特斯拉在全球电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价中，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，这使其成为值得选择的股票。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-06-05 12:15\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li> <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li> <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\">Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>蔚来的股价在过去一年飙升了816%以上，在3月初的成长股抛售之前，在2月初达到了近62美元的峰值。</li><li>该公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪日益高涨，预计将提振该公司的估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来股价到2025年将飙升至160美元以上。</li></ul>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images新闻来自Getty Images</blockquote> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).<blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来已经在电动汽车行业狂热投资者中获得了国际关注。距离蔚来于2018年中期首次交付仅过去了短短三年，但许多人已经想知道其股价是否能达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的股价超过每股600美元，市值超过6000亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来有潜力在2025年之前突破每股100美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近60美元，根据上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日）计算，该目标价有超过35%的上涨潜力。</blockquote> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.<blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今在华销售和交付汽车已超过10万辆。该公司拥有一支由五款零排放、全电池驱动的车型组成的车队，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将他们的全球扩张计划变成了现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到100美元不再是“如果”的问题，而是“何时”的问题。</blockquote> A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology<blockquote>创新技术的开拓者</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\">Source:ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.<blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池交换技术“Power Swap”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车行驶里程通常有限的问题。与加油站类似，换电是一个电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池使蔚来汽车能够行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车平均行驶里程181英里的两倍多。蔚来车主可以选择订阅“电池即服务”（“BaaS”）套餐，这是一项按月订阅的服务，为蔚来车主根据个人需求提供电池升级的灵活选择。该公司目前提供标准75 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达310英里，增强型100 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达435英里；两者都可供蔚来车主在BaaS下按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个电池交换站，继蔚来与中石化最近达成战略合作协议后，更多的电池交换站正在建设中。蔚来的车辆还与当地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国164个城市提供的1,140个汽车充电站兼容，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.<blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以在更广泛的电动汽车和技术领域保持竞争力。自2016年以来，蔚来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，并于2018年在北京的公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对未来客运的承诺也通过EVE的开发得到了证明，EVE是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的NOMI AI（世界上第一个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.<blockquote>为了进一步推动自动驾驶技术的进步，蔚来最近与Mobileye合作，Mobileye是一家英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司，以开发“EyeQ芯片”而闻名，目前已被超过27家汽车制造商用于其辅助驾驶技术——开发和商业化不需要人机交互的驾驶自动化（即“4级”自动驾驶）。他们的合作预计将加速蔚来推出“自动驾驶即服务”（“ADaaS”）套餐，这是他们的自动驾驶技术“蔚来自动驾驶”（“NAD”）的每月订阅。然而，与特斯拉的“全自动驾驶”套件类似，预计将于2022年推出的NAD技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实使蔚来在通往4级自动驾驶的竞赛中与行业领导者特斯拉相提并论。蔚来车主将可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。如今上路的蔚来汽车超过10.2万辆，新的订阅套餐预计将产生8.4亿元人民币（1.32亿美元）的年销售额增量；假设大多数现有蔚来车主注册的平均车辆寿命为12年，该服务推出后的额外收入流价值约为100亿元人民币（16亿美元）。</blockquote> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).<blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的不断发展预计将在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求最大的细分市场之一，估计价值为1.6万亿美元。该市场6%的份额将为蔚来现有670亿美元的市值增加至少1000亿美元的估值，使其每股价值超过100美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的全电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长其海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占据上述市场6%以上的份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股股价超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量约为30万辆，总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\">Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（蔚来_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</blockquote> Global Expansion<blockquote>全球扩张</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">Source: ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.<blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破100美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直公开表示其全球扩张的意图，特别是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设首个海外销售及服务中心。该品牌在挪威的足迹将于2022年进一步扩大，将在Bergen、Stavanger、Trondheim和Kristiansand开设四家蔚来商店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将在欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是在挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为新蔚来车主提供该品牌赖以成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰SUV ES 8目前零售价约为67,000美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车ET 7将于2022年紧随其后。</blockquote> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.<blockquote>凭借在中国豪华电动汽车市场的良好销售记录，以及与全球公认的特斯拉相当的规格，蔚来没有理由不在海外取得成功。正如前面提到的，蔚来的车辆充满电后的行驶里程可达435英里，这使得它成为潜在的欧美车主的理想选择，他们正在寻找一个可靠的伴侣来陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的首选相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车不断增长的需求。</blockquote> NIO’s Historical Performance<blockquote>蔚来的历史表现</blockquote> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.<blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销量持续增长，但由于流动性问题，蔚来股价跌至2美元以下的历史低点。2020年年中，中国合肥市政府向蔚来注资70亿元人民币（约合10亿美元）。该安排导致创建了“蔚来中国”，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来90.36%的所有权权益，而“合肥战略投资者”联合体持有馀下9.64%。这种合作关系成为了公司的生命线；额外资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显着改善，这反映在其强劲的财务业绩和2020年夏季股价的上涨趋势上。截至2020年第二季度末，蔚来总收入环比增长171%，股价平均反弹近20%。该公司股价在2020年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均为15.40美元，并继续攀升至第四季度平均38.70美元。截至2021年3月31日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为50.97美元，并在2月份达到近62美元的峰值，是2018年IPO价格的10倍多。该公司目前的市值超过670亿美元，超过了其在纽约证券交易所上市时仅10亿美元的市值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.<blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在2月底成长型股票遭到抛售之前见顶以来，蔚来的基本面也只显示出稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级增长，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，几乎占2020年总交付量的50%。该公司继续展现出乐观的前景，4月份交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长超过125%。得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，蔚来在2021年第一季度的经营活动中也保持了正现金流，这些措施将其毛利率提高至19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者的毛利率相当。第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量将接近30万辆，这意味着总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）（每股18.60美元）。我们最近与合资企业“江淮汽车集团”（“江淮汽车”）续签的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的汽车销售预测，该协议将目前100,000辆的年产能提高到240,000辆；正在建设中的“NeoPark”亦预期将新增100万台的年产能，这进一步支持了我们对蔚来继续致力于发展其业务的积极展望。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为16.43倍，年收入约为420亿美元（第一季度收入年化为103.89亿美元），将相同比例应用于蔚来预测的2025财年总收入预计将产生市盈率8.7倍，股价超过160美元。</blockquote> NIO vs. LI and XPEV<blockquote>蔚来vs.LI和XPEV</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Finviz<blockquote>资料来源：Finviz</blockquote> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.<blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与其国内同行进行了比较，以衡量蔚来股价突破100美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.<blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于LI和XPEV，前者的市盈率应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到18.1倍（XPEV的中点），也将推动该公司当前股价上涨至51.50美元，基于上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日），这意味着22%的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来2025财年收入1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）或每股18.60美元的预测，即使是18.1倍的一半也足以使蔚来的股价在2025年突破160美元；我们认为，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为届时从运营中获得的现金和技术进步将使其走上电动汽车行业持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到2030年及以后，届时该品牌的4级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote> Business Risks and Challenges<blockquote>业务风险及挑战</blockquote> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.<blockquote>正如我在之前关于蔚来的一篇文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“HFCA法案”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB的检查要求；否则，上述事务所审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前由普华永道中天会计师事务所（LLP）进行审计，该事务所被列入PCAOB的拒绝访问名单。如果中国当局和PCAOB不能很快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会成为投资者的威慑因素，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.<blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是持续的全球芯片供应短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的每一项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距越来越大。蔚来也不例外地受到持续的芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，交付量逐月增加就证明了这一点；在蔚来4月份最新的交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长125%。</blockquote> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.<blockquote>近年来，电动汽车行业的竞争也愈演愈烈。在过去十年中，由于对气候变化的日益担忧以及传统汽油燃料汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的进入门槛也大幅降低；随着初始投资变得比2003年特斯拉更加合理，新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动的汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并保持在汽车行业内的竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期保持成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（此处进一步分析）。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.<blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌影响力，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合其生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略的能力，蔚来正在有效缩小与特斯拉在全球电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价中，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，这使其成为值得选择的股票。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148130971","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.\nThe company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.\nWe believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.\n\nPhoto by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nDespite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).\nFounded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.\nA Trailblazer in Innovative Technology\nSource:ir.nio.com\nNIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the 181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are more than 226 battery swapping stations across China, with more on the way following a recent strategic partnership agreement between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.\nIn addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.\nTo further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently partnered with Mobileye – an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.\nNIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).\nSource: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nGlobal Expansion\nSource: ir.nio.com\nAnother catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the ES8, which currently retails at a starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the ET7, to follow in 2022.\nWith a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.\nNIO’s Historical Performance\nJust a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a capital injection of RMB 7 billion (approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.\nSource: Author, with data from ir.nio.com\nNIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the recently renewed manufacturing agreement with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.\nNIO vs. LI and XPEV\nSource: Finviz\nWe have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.\nConsidering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.\nBusiness Risks and Challenges\nAs mentioned in one of my previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.\nAnother imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.\nCompetition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.\nConclusion\nNIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4598209,"gmtCreate":1622946118214,"gmtModify":1635335429889,"authorId":3576583202640797,"author":{"id":3576583202640797,"idStr":"3576583202640797","authorId":3576583202640797,"name":"NKT9493","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6332e9e73fa2d969a123da1e4579ec09","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":115917854,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Yessss","text":"Yessss","html":"Yessss"},{"id":4598624,"gmtCreate":1622947504950,"gmtModify":1635335385763,"authorId":3557460658824677,"author":{"id":3557460658824677,"idStr":"3557460658824677","authorId":3557460658824677,"name":"FIREWORKS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9873e8ddb08004279796752daf19a999","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":115917854,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"very optimistic.","text":"very optimistic.","html":"very optimistic."}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":115915319,"gmtCreate":1622945975931,"gmtModify":1634096745566,"author":{"id":"3561714731469739","authorId":"3561714731469739","name":"redder13","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8df41dc5cd7a8a22e5756d2e8067fa62","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3561714731469739","authorIdStr":"3561714731469739"},"htmlText":"Could be higher in 2025 if all pans out well. NIO Life if executed according to plan could be huge","listText":"Could be higher in 2025 if all pans out well. NIO Life if executed according to plan could be huge","text":"Could be higher in 2025 if all pans out well. NIO Life if executed according to plan could be huge","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115915319","repostId":1148130971,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1148130971","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622866524,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148130971?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-05 12:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148130971","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fas","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li> <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li> <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\">Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>蔚来的股价在过去一年飙升了816%以上，在3月初的成长股抛售之前，在2月初达到了近62美元的峰值。</li><li>该公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪日益高涨，预计将提振该公司的估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来股价到2025年将飙升至160美元以上。</li></ul>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images新闻来自Getty Images</blockquote> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).<blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来已经在电动汽车行业狂热投资者中获得了国际关注。距离蔚来于2018年中期首次交付仅过去了短短三年，但许多人已经想知道其股价是否能达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的股价超过每股600美元，市值超过6000亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来有潜力在2025年之前突破每股100美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近60美元，根据上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日）计算，该目标价有超过35%的上涨潜力。</blockquote> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.<blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今在华销售和交付汽车已超过10万辆。该公司拥有一支由五款零排放、全电池驱动的车型组成的车队，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将他们的全球扩张计划变成了现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到100美元不再是“如果”的问题，而是“何时”的问题。</blockquote> A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology<blockquote>创新技术的开拓者</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\">Source:ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.<blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池交换技术“Power Swap”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车行驶里程通常有限的问题。与加油站类似，换电是一个电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池使蔚来汽车能够行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车平均行驶里程181英里的两倍多。蔚来车主可以选择订阅“电池即服务”（“BaaS”）套餐，这是一项按月订阅的服务，为蔚来车主根据个人需求提供电池升级的灵活选择。该公司目前提供标准75 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达310英里，增强型100 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达435英里；两者都可供蔚来车主在BaaS下按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个电池交换站，继蔚来与中石化最近达成战略合作协议后，更多的电池交换站正在建设中。蔚来的车辆还与当地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国164个城市提供的1,140个汽车充电站兼容，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.<blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以在更广泛的电动汽车和技术领域保持竞争力。自2016年以来，蔚来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，并于2018年在北京的公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对未来客运的承诺也通过EVE的开发得到了证明，EVE是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的NOMI AI（世界上第一个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.<blockquote>为了进一步推动自动驾驶技术的进步，蔚来最近与Mobileye合作，Mobileye是一家英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司，以开发“EyeQ芯片”而闻名，目前已被超过27家汽车制造商用于其辅助驾驶技术——开发和商业化不需要人机交互的驾驶自动化（即“4级”自动驾驶）。他们的合作预计将加速蔚来推出“自动驾驶即服务”（“ADaaS”）套餐，这是他们的自动驾驶技术“蔚来自动驾驶”（“NAD”）的每月订阅。然而，与特斯拉的“全自动驾驶”套件类似，预计将于2022年推出的NAD技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实使蔚来在通往4级自动驾驶的竞赛中与行业领导者特斯拉相提并论。蔚来车主将可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。如今上路的蔚来汽车超过10.2万辆，新的订阅套餐预计将产生8.4亿元人民币（1.32亿美元）的年销售额增量；假设大多数现有蔚来车主注册的平均车辆寿命为12年，该服务推出后的额外收入流价值约为100亿元人民币（16亿美元）。</blockquote> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).<blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的不断发展预计将在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求最大的细分市场之一，估计价值为1.6万亿美元。该市场6%的份额将为蔚来现有670亿美元的市值增加至少1000亿美元的估值，使其每股价值超过100美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的全电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长其海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占据上述市场6%以上的份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股股价超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量约为30万辆，总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\">Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（蔚来_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</blockquote> Global Expansion<blockquote>全球扩张</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">Source: ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.<blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破100美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直公开表示其全球扩张的意图，特别是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设首个海外销售及服务中心。该品牌在挪威的足迹将于2022年进一步扩大，将在Bergen、Stavanger、Trondheim和Kristiansand开设四家蔚来商店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将在欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是在挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为新蔚来车主提供该品牌赖以成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰SUV ES 8目前零售价约为67,000美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车ET 7将于2022年紧随其后。</blockquote> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.<blockquote>凭借在中国豪华电动汽车市场的良好销售记录，以及与全球公认的特斯拉相当的规格，蔚来没有理由不在海外取得成功。正如前面提到的，蔚来的车辆充满电后的行驶里程可达435英里，这使得它成为潜在的欧美车主的理想选择，他们正在寻找一个可靠的伴侣来陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的首选相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车不断增长的需求。</blockquote> NIO’s Historical Performance<blockquote>蔚来的历史表现</blockquote> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.<blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销量持续增长，但由于流动性问题，蔚来股价跌至2美元以下的历史低点。2020年年中，中国合肥市政府向蔚来注资70亿元人民币（约合10亿美元）。该安排导致创建了“蔚来中国”，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来90.36%的所有权权益，而“合肥战略投资者”联合体持有馀下9.64%。这种合作关系成为了公司的生命线；额外资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显着改善，这反映在其强劲的财务业绩和2020年夏季股价的上涨趋势上。截至2020年第二季度末，蔚来总收入环比增长171%，股价平均反弹近20%。该公司股价在2020年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均为15.40美元，并继续攀升至第四季度平均38.70美元。截至2021年3月31日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为50.97美元，并在2月份达到近62美元的峰值，是2018年IPO价格的10倍多。该公司目前的市值超过670亿美元，超过了其在纽约证券交易所上市时仅10亿美元的市值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.<blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在2月底成长型股票遭到抛售之前见顶以来，蔚来的基本面也只显示出稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级增长，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，几乎占2020年总交付量的50%。该公司继续展现出乐观的前景，4月份交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长超过125%。得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，蔚来在2021年第一季度的经营活动中也保持了正现金流，这些措施将其毛利率提高至19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者的毛利率相当。第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量将接近30万辆，这意味着总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）（每股18.60美元）。我们最近与合资企业“江淮汽车集团”（“江淮汽车”）续签的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的汽车销售预测，该协议将目前100,000辆的年产能提高到240,000辆；正在建设中的“NeoPark”亦预期将新增100万台的年产能，这进一步支持了我们对蔚来继续致力于发展其业务的积极展望。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为16.43倍，年收入约为420亿美元（第一季度收入年化为103.89亿美元），将相同比例应用于蔚来预测的2025财年总收入预计将产生市盈率8.7倍，股价超过160美元。</blockquote> NIO vs. LI and XPEV<blockquote>蔚来vs.LI和XPEV</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Finviz<blockquote>资料来源：Finviz</blockquote> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.<blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与其国内同行进行了比较，以衡量蔚来股价突破100美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.<blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于LI和XPEV，前者的市盈率应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到18.1倍（XPEV的中点），也将推动该公司当前股价上涨至51.50美元，基于上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日），这意味着22%的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来2025财年收入1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）或每股18.60美元的预测，即使是18.1倍的一半也足以使蔚来的股价在2025年突破160美元；我们认为，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为届时从运营中获得的现金和技术进步将使其走上电动汽车行业持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到2030年及以后，届时该品牌的4级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote> Business Risks and Challenges<blockquote>业务风险及挑战</blockquote> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.<blockquote>正如我在之前关于蔚来的一篇文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“HFCA法案”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB的检查要求；否则，上述事务所审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前由普华永道中天会计师事务所（LLP）进行审计，该事务所被列入PCAOB的拒绝访问名单。如果中国当局和PCAOB不能很快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会成为投资者的威慑因素，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.<blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是持续的全球芯片供应短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的每一项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距越来越大。蔚来也不例外地受到持续的芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，交付量逐月增加就证明了这一点；在蔚来4月份最新的交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长125%。</blockquote> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.<blockquote>近年来，电动汽车行业的竞争也愈演愈烈。在过去十年中，由于对气候变化的日益担忧以及传统汽油燃料汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的进入门槛也大幅降低；随着初始投资变得比2003年特斯拉更加合理，新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动的汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并保持在汽车行业内的竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期保持成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（此处进一步分析）。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.<blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌影响力，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合其生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略的能力，蔚来正在有效缩小与特斯拉在全球电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价中，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，这使其成为值得选择的股票。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-06-05 12:15\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li> <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li> <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\">Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>蔚来的股价在过去一年飙升了816%以上，在3月初的成长股抛售之前，在2月初达到了近62美元的峰值。</li><li>该公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪日益高涨，预计将提振该公司的估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来股价到2025年将飙升至160美元以上。</li></ul>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images新闻来自Getty Images</blockquote> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).<blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来已经在电动汽车行业狂热投资者中获得了国际关注。距离蔚来于2018年中期首次交付仅过去了短短三年，但许多人已经想知道其股价是否能达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的股价超过每股600美元，市值超过6000亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来有潜力在2025年之前突破每股100美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近60美元，根据上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日）计算，该目标价有超过35%的上涨潜力。</blockquote> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.<blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今在华销售和交付汽车已超过10万辆。该公司拥有一支由五款零排放、全电池驱动的车型组成的车队，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将他们的全球扩张计划变成了现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到100美元不再是“如果”的问题，而是“何时”的问题。</blockquote> A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology<blockquote>创新技术的开拓者</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\">Source:ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.<blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池交换技术“Power Swap”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车行驶里程通常有限的问题。与加油站类似，换电是一个电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池使蔚来汽车能够行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车平均行驶里程181英里的两倍多。蔚来车主可以选择订阅“电池即服务”（“BaaS”）套餐，这是一项按月订阅的服务，为蔚来车主根据个人需求提供电池升级的灵活选择。该公司目前提供标准75 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达310英里，增强型100 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达435英里；两者都可供蔚来车主在BaaS下按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个电池交换站，继蔚来与中石化最近达成战略合作协议后，更多的电池交换站正在建设中。蔚来的车辆还与当地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国164个城市提供的1,140个汽车充电站兼容，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.<blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以在更广泛的电动汽车和技术领域保持竞争力。自2016年以来，蔚来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，并于2018年在北京的公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对未来客运的承诺也通过EVE的开发得到了证明，EVE是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的NOMI AI（世界上第一个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.<blockquote>为了进一步推动自动驾驶技术的进步，蔚来最近与Mobileye合作，Mobileye是一家英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司，以开发“EyeQ芯片”而闻名，目前已被超过27家汽车制造商用于其辅助驾驶技术——开发和商业化不需要人机交互的驾驶自动化（即“4级”自动驾驶）。他们的合作预计将加速蔚来推出“自动驾驶即服务”（“ADaaS”）套餐，这是他们的自动驾驶技术“蔚来自动驾驶”（“NAD”）的每月订阅。然而，与特斯拉的“全自动驾驶”套件类似，预计将于2022年推出的NAD技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实使蔚来在通往4级自动驾驶的竞赛中与行业领导者特斯拉相提并论。蔚来车主将可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。如今上路的蔚来汽车超过10.2万辆，新的订阅套餐预计将产生8.4亿元人民币（1.32亿美元）的年销售额增量；假设大多数现有蔚来车主注册的平均车辆寿命为12年，该服务推出后的额外收入流价值约为100亿元人民币（16亿美元）。</blockquote> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).<blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的不断发展预计将在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求最大的细分市场之一，估计价值为1.6万亿美元。该市场6%的份额将为蔚来现有670亿美元的市值增加至少1000亿美元的估值，使其每股价值超过100美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的全电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长其海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占据上述市场6%以上的份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股股价超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量约为30万辆，总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\">Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（蔚来_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</blockquote> Global Expansion<blockquote>全球扩张</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">Source: ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.<blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破100美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直公开表示其全球扩张的意图，特别是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设首个海外销售及服务中心。该品牌在挪威的足迹将于2022年进一步扩大，将在Bergen、Stavanger、Trondheim和Kristiansand开设四家蔚来商店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将在欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是在挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为新蔚来车主提供该品牌赖以成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰SUV ES 8目前零售价约为67,000美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车ET 7将于2022年紧随其后。</blockquote> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.<blockquote>凭借在中国豪华电动汽车市场的良好销售记录，以及与全球公认的特斯拉相当的规格，蔚来没有理由不在海外取得成功。正如前面提到的，蔚来的车辆充满电后的行驶里程可达435英里，这使得它成为潜在的欧美车主的理想选择，他们正在寻找一个可靠的伴侣来陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的首选相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车不断增长的需求。</blockquote> NIO’s Historical Performance<blockquote>蔚来的历史表现</blockquote> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.<blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销量持续增长，但由于流动性问题，蔚来股价跌至2美元以下的历史低点。2020年年中，中国合肥市政府向蔚来注资70亿元人民币（约合10亿美元）。该安排导致创建了“蔚来中国”，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来90.36%的所有权权益，而“合肥战略投资者”联合体持有馀下9.64%。这种合作关系成为了公司的生命线；额外资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显着改善，这反映在其强劲的财务业绩和2020年夏季股价的上涨趋势上。截至2020年第二季度末，蔚来总收入环比增长171%，股价平均反弹近20%。该公司股价在2020年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均为15.40美元，并继续攀升至第四季度平均38.70美元。截至2021年3月31日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为50.97美元，并在2月份达到近62美元的峰值，是2018年IPO价格的10倍多。该公司目前的市值超过670亿美元，超过了其在纽约证券交易所上市时仅10亿美元的市值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.<blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在2月底成长型股票遭到抛售之前见顶以来，蔚来的基本面也只显示出稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级增长，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，几乎占2020年总交付量的50%。该公司继续展现出乐观的前景，4月份交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长超过125%。得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，蔚来在2021年第一季度的经营活动中也保持了正现金流，这些措施将其毛利率提高至19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者的毛利率相当。第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量将接近30万辆，这意味着总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）（每股18.60美元）。我们最近与合资企业“江淮汽车集团”（“江淮汽车”）续签的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的汽车销售预测，该协议将目前100,000辆的年产能提高到240,000辆；正在建设中的“NeoPark”亦预期将新增100万台的年产能，这进一步支持了我们对蔚来继续致力于发展其业务的积极展望。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为16.43倍，年收入约为420亿美元（第一季度收入年化为103.89亿美元），将相同比例应用于蔚来预测的2025财年总收入预计将产生市盈率8.7倍，股价超过160美元。</blockquote> NIO vs. LI and XPEV<blockquote>蔚来vs.LI和XPEV</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Finviz<blockquote>资料来源：Finviz</blockquote> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.<blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与其国内同行进行了比较，以衡量蔚来股价突破100美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.<blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于LI和XPEV，前者的市盈率应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到18.1倍（XPEV的中点），也将推动该公司当前股价上涨至51.50美元，基于上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日），这意味着22%的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来2025财年收入1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）或每股18.60美元的预测，即使是18.1倍的一半也足以使蔚来的股价在2025年突破160美元；我们认为，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为届时从运营中获得的现金和技术进步将使其走上电动汽车行业持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到2030年及以后，届时该品牌的4级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote> Business Risks and Challenges<blockquote>业务风险及挑战</blockquote> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.<blockquote>正如我在之前关于蔚来的一篇文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“HFCA法案”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB的检查要求；否则，上述事务所审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前由普华永道中天会计师事务所（LLP）进行审计，该事务所被列入PCAOB的拒绝访问名单。如果中国当局和PCAOB不能很快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会成为投资者的威慑因素，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.<blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是持续的全球芯片供应短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的每一项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距越来越大。蔚来也不例外地受到持续的芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，交付量逐月增加就证明了这一点；在蔚来4月份最新的交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长125%。</blockquote> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.<blockquote>近年来，电动汽车行业的竞争也愈演愈烈。在过去十年中，由于对气候变化的日益担忧以及传统汽油燃料汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的进入门槛也大幅降低；随着初始投资变得比2003年特斯拉更加合理，新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动的汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并保持在汽车行业内的竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期保持成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（此处进一步分析）。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.<blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌影响力，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合其生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略的能力，蔚来正在有效缩小与特斯拉在全球电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价中，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，这使其成为值得选择的股票。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148130971","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.\nThe company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.\nWe believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.\n\nPhoto by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nDespite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).\nFounded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.\nA Trailblazer in Innovative Technology\nSource:ir.nio.com\nNIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the 181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are more than 226 battery swapping stations across China, with more on the way following a recent strategic partnership agreement between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.\nIn addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.\nTo further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently partnered with Mobileye – an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.\nNIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).\nSource: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nGlobal Expansion\nSource: ir.nio.com\nAnother catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the ES8, which currently retails at a starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the ET7, to follow in 2022.\nWith a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.\nNIO’s Historical Performance\nJust a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a capital injection of RMB 7 billion (approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.\nSource: Author, with data from ir.nio.com\nNIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the recently renewed manufacturing agreement with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.\nNIO vs. LI and XPEV\nSource: Finviz\nWe have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.\nConsidering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.\nBusiness Risks and Challenges\nAs mentioned in one of my previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.\nAnother imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.\nCompetition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.\nConclusion\nNIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":115910464,"gmtCreate":1622945703258,"gmtModify":1631889692375,"author":{"id":"3572591577571735","authorId":"3572591577571735","name":"Ziling","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572591577571735","authorIdStr":"3572591577571735"},"htmlText":"[Call]&nbsp;","listText":"[Call]&nbsp;","text":"[Call]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115910464","repostId":1148130971,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148130971","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622866524,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148130971?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-05 12:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148130971","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fas","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li> <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li> <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\">Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>蔚来的股价在过去一年飙升了816%以上，在3月初的成长股抛售之前，在2月初达到了近62美元的峰值。</li><li>该公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪日益高涨，预计将提振该公司的估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来股价到2025年将飙升至160美元以上。</li></ul>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images新闻来自Getty Images</blockquote> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).<blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来已经在电动汽车行业狂热投资者中获得了国际关注。距离蔚来于2018年中期首次交付仅过去了短短三年，但许多人已经想知道其股价是否能达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的股价超过每股600美元，市值超过6000亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来有潜力在2025年之前突破每股100美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近60美元，根据上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日）计算，该目标价有超过35%的上涨潜力。</blockquote> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.<blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今在华销售和交付汽车已超过10万辆。该公司拥有一支由五款零排放、全电池驱动的车型组成的车队，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将他们的全球扩张计划变成了现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到100美元不再是“如果”的问题，而是“何时”的问题。</blockquote> A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology<blockquote>创新技术的开拓者</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\">Source:ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.<blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池交换技术“Power Swap”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车行驶里程通常有限的问题。与加油站类似，换电是一个电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池使蔚来汽车能够行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车平均行驶里程181英里的两倍多。蔚来车主可以选择订阅“电池即服务”（“BaaS”）套餐，这是一项按月订阅的服务，为蔚来车主根据个人需求提供电池升级的灵活选择。该公司目前提供标准75 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达310英里，增强型100 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达435英里；两者都可供蔚来车主在BaaS下按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个电池交换站，继蔚来与中石化最近达成战略合作协议后，更多的电池交换站正在建设中。蔚来的车辆还与当地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国164个城市提供的1,140个汽车充电站兼容，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.<blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以在更广泛的电动汽车和技术领域保持竞争力。自2016年以来，蔚来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，并于2018年在北京的公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对未来客运的承诺也通过EVE的开发得到了证明，EVE是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的NOMI AI（世界上第一个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.<blockquote>为了进一步推动自动驾驶技术的进步，蔚来最近与Mobileye合作，Mobileye是一家英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司，以开发“EyeQ芯片”而闻名，目前已被超过27家汽车制造商用于其辅助驾驶技术——开发和商业化不需要人机交互的驾驶自动化（即“4级”自动驾驶）。他们的合作预计将加速蔚来推出“自动驾驶即服务”（“ADaaS”）套餐，这是他们的自动驾驶技术“蔚来自动驾驶”（“NAD”）的每月订阅。然而，与特斯拉的“全自动驾驶”套件类似，预计将于2022年推出的NAD技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实使蔚来在通往4级自动驾驶的竞赛中与行业领导者特斯拉相提并论。蔚来车主将可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。如今上路的蔚来汽车超过10.2万辆，新的订阅套餐预计将产生8.4亿元人民币（1.32亿美元）的年销售额增量；假设大多数现有蔚来车主注册的平均车辆寿命为12年，该服务推出后的额外收入流价值约为100亿元人民币（16亿美元）。</blockquote> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).<blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的不断发展预计将在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求最大的细分市场之一，估计价值为1.6万亿美元。该市场6%的份额将为蔚来现有670亿美元的市值增加至少1000亿美元的估值，使其每股价值超过100美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的全电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长其海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占据上述市场6%以上的份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股股价超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量约为30万辆，总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\">Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（蔚来_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</blockquote> Global Expansion<blockquote>全球扩张</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">Source: ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.<blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破100美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直公开表示其全球扩张的意图，特别是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设首个海外销售及服务中心。该品牌在挪威的足迹将于2022年进一步扩大，将在Bergen、Stavanger、Trondheim和Kristiansand开设四家蔚来商店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将在欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是在挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为新蔚来车主提供该品牌赖以成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰SUV ES 8目前零售价约为67,000美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车ET 7将于2022年紧随其后。</blockquote> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.<blockquote>凭借在中国豪华电动汽车市场的良好销售记录，以及与全球公认的特斯拉相当的规格，蔚来没有理由不在海外取得成功。正如前面提到的，蔚来的车辆充满电后的行驶里程可达435英里，这使得它成为潜在的欧美车主的理想选择，他们正在寻找一个可靠的伴侣来陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的首选相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车不断增长的需求。</blockquote> NIO’s Historical Performance<blockquote>蔚来的历史表现</blockquote> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.<blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销量持续增长，但由于流动性问题，蔚来股价跌至2美元以下的历史低点。2020年年中，中国合肥市政府向蔚来注资70亿元人民币（约合10亿美元）。该安排导致创建了“蔚来中国”，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来90.36%的所有权权益，而“合肥战略投资者”联合体持有馀下9.64%。这种合作关系成为了公司的生命线；额外资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显着改善，这反映在其强劲的财务业绩和2020年夏季股价的上涨趋势上。截至2020年第二季度末，蔚来总收入环比增长171%，股价平均反弹近20%。该公司股价在2020年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均为15.40美元，并继续攀升至第四季度平均38.70美元。截至2021年3月31日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为50.97美元，并在2月份达到近62美元的峰值，是2018年IPO价格的10倍多。该公司目前的市值超过670亿美元，超过了其在纽约证券交易所上市时仅10亿美元的市值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.<blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在2月底成长型股票遭到抛售之前见顶以来，蔚来的基本面也只显示出稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级增长，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，几乎占2020年总交付量的50%。该公司继续展现出乐观的前景，4月份交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长超过125%。得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，蔚来在2021年第一季度的经营活动中也保持了正现金流，这些措施将其毛利率提高至19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者的毛利率相当。第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量将接近30万辆，这意味着总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）（每股18.60美元）。我们最近与合资企业“江淮汽车集团”（“江淮汽车”）续签的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的汽车销售预测，该协议将目前100,000辆的年产能提高到240,000辆；正在建设中的“NeoPark”亦预期将新增100万台的年产能，这进一步支持了我们对蔚来继续致力于发展其业务的积极展望。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为16.43倍，年收入约为420亿美元（第一季度收入年化为103.89亿美元），将相同比例应用于蔚来预测的2025财年总收入预计将产生市盈率8.7倍，股价超过160美元。</blockquote> NIO vs. LI and XPEV<blockquote>蔚来vs.LI和XPEV</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Finviz<blockquote>资料来源：Finviz</blockquote> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.<blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与其国内同行进行了比较，以衡量蔚来股价突破100美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.<blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于LI和XPEV，前者的市盈率应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到18.1倍（XPEV的中点），也将推动该公司当前股价上涨至51.50美元，基于上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日），这意味着22%的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来2025财年收入1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）或每股18.60美元的预测，即使是18.1倍的一半也足以使蔚来的股价在2025年突破160美元；我们认为，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为届时从运营中获得的现金和技术进步将使其走上电动汽车行业持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到2030年及以后，届时该品牌的4级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote> Business Risks and Challenges<blockquote>业务风险及挑战</blockquote> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.<blockquote>正如我在之前关于蔚来的一篇文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“HFCA法案”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB的检查要求；否则，上述事务所审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前由普华永道中天会计师事务所（LLP）进行审计，该事务所被列入PCAOB的拒绝访问名单。如果中国当局和PCAOB不能很快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会成为投资者的威慑因素，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.<blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是持续的全球芯片供应短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的每一项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距越来越大。蔚来也不例外地受到持续的芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，交付量逐月增加就证明了这一点；在蔚来4月份最新的交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长125%。</blockquote> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.<blockquote>近年来，电动汽车行业的竞争也愈演愈烈。在过去十年中，由于对气候变化的日益担忧以及传统汽油燃料汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的进入门槛也大幅降低；随着初始投资变得比2003年特斯拉更加合理，新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动的汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并保持在汽车行业内的竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期保持成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（此处进一步分析）。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.<blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌影响力，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合其生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略的能力，蔚来正在有效缩小与特斯拉在全球电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价中，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，这使其成为值得选择的股票。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-06-05 12:15\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li> <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li> <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\">Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>蔚来的股价在过去一年飙升了816%以上，在3月初的成长股抛售之前，在2月初达到了近62美元的峰值。</li><li>该公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪日益高涨，预计将提振该公司的估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来股价到2025年将飙升至160美元以上。</li></ul>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images新闻来自Getty Images</blockquote> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).<blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来已经在电动汽车行业狂热投资者中获得了国际关注。距离蔚来于2018年中期首次交付仅过去了短短三年，但许多人已经想知道其股价是否能达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的股价超过每股600美元，市值超过6000亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来有潜力在2025年之前突破每股100美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近60美元，根据上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日）计算，该目标价有超过35%的上涨潜力。</blockquote> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.<blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今在华销售和交付汽车已超过10万辆。该公司拥有一支由五款零排放、全电池驱动的车型组成的车队，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将他们的全球扩张计划变成了现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到100美元不再是“如果”的问题，而是“何时”的问题。</blockquote> A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology<blockquote>创新技术的开拓者</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\">Source:ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.<blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池交换技术“Power Swap”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车行驶里程通常有限的问题。与加油站类似，换电是一个电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池使蔚来汽车能够行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车平均行驶里程181英里的两倍多。蔚来车主可以选择订阅“电池即服务”（“BaaS”）套餐，这是一项按月订阅的服务，为蔚来车主根据个人需求提供电池升级的灵活选择。该公司目前提供标准75 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达310英里，增强型100 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达435英里；两者都可供蔚来车主在BaaS下按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个电池交换站，继蔚来与中石化最近达成战略合作协议后，更多的电池交换站正在建设中。蔚来的车辆还与当地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国164个城市提供的1,140个汽车充电站兼容，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.<blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以在更广泛的电动汽车和技术领域保持竞争力。自2016年以来，蔚来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，并于2018年在北京的公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对未来客运的承诺也通过EVE的开发得到了证明，EVE是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的NOMI AI（世界上第一个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.<blockquote>为了进一步推动自动驾驶技术的进步，蔚来最近与Mobileye合作，Mobileye是一家英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司，以开发“EyeQ芯片”而闻名，目前已被超过27家汽车制造商用于其辅助驾驶技术——开发和商业化不需要人机交互的驾驶自动化（即“4级”自动驾驶）。他们的合作预计将加速蔚来推出“自动驾驶即服务”（“ADaaS”）套餐，这是他们的自动驾驶技术“蔚来自动驾驶”（“NAD”）的每月订阅。然而，与特斯拉的“全自动驾驶”套件类似，预计将于2022年推出的NAD技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实使蔚来在通往4级自动驾驶的竞赛中与行业领导者特斯拉相提并论。蔚来车主将可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。如今上路的蔚来汽车超过10.2万辆，新的订阅套餐预计将产生8.4亿元人民币（1.32亿美元）的年销售额增量；假设大多数现有蔚来车主注册的平均车辆寿命为12年，该服务推出后的额外收入流价值约为100亿元人民币（16亿美元）。</blockquote> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).<blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的不断发展预计将在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求最大的细分市场之一，估计价值为1.6万亿美元。该市场6%的份额将为蔚来现有670亿美元的市值增加至少1000亿美元的估值，使其每股价值超过100美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的全电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长其海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占据上述市场6%以上的份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股股价超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量约为30万辆，总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\">Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（蔚来_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</blockquote> Global Expansion<blockquote>全球扩张</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">Source: ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.<blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破100美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直公开表示其全球扩张的意图，特别是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设首个海外销售及服务中心。该品牌在挪威的足迹将于2022年进一步扩大，将在Bergen、Stavanger、Trondheim和Kristiansand开设四家蔚来商店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将在欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是在挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为新蔚来车主提供该品牌赖以成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰SUV ES 8目前零售价约为67,000美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车ET 7将于2022年紧随其后。</blockquote> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.<blockquote>凭借在中国豪华电动汽车市场的良好销售记录，以及与全球公认的特斯拉相当的规格，蔚来没有理由不在海外取得成功。正如前面提到的，蔚来的车辆充满电后的行驶里程可达435英里，这使得它成为潜在的欧美车主的理想选择，他们正在寻找一个可靠的伴侣来陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的首选相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车不断增长的需求。</blockquote> NIO’s Historical Performance<blockquote>蔚来的历史表现</blockquote> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.<blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销量持续增长，但由于流动性问题，蔚来股价跌至2美元以下的历史低点。2020年年中，中国合肥市政府向蔚来注资70亿元人民币（约合10亿美元）。该安排导致创建了“蔚来中国”，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来90.36%的所有权权益，而“合肥战略投资者”联合体持有馀下9.64%。这种合作关系成为了公司的生命线；额外资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显着改善，这反映在其强劲的财务业绩和2020年夏季股价的上涨趋势上。截至2020年第二季度末，蔚来总收入环比增长171%，股价平均反弹近20%。该公司股价在2020年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均为15.40美元，并继续攀升至第四季度平均38.70美元。截至2021年3月31日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为50.97美元，并在2月份达到近62美元的峰值，是2018年IPO价格的10倍多。该公司目前的市值超过670亿美元，超过了其在纽约证券交易所上市时仅10亿美元的市值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.<blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在2月底成长型股票遭到抛售之前见顶以来，蔚来的基本面也只显示出稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级增长，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，几乎占2020年总交付量的50%。该公司继续展现出乐观的前景，4月份交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长超过125%。得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，蔚来在2021年第一季度的经营活动中也保持了正现金流，这些措施将其毛利率提高至19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者的毛利率相当。第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量将接近30万辆，这意味着总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）（每股18.60美元）。我们最近与合资企业“江淮汽车集团”（“江淮汽车”）续签的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的汽车销售预测，该协议将目前100,000辆的年产能提高到240,000辆；正在建设中的“NeoPark”亦预期将新增100万台的年产能，这进一步支持了我们对蔚来继续致力于发展其业务的积极展望。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为16.43倍，年收入约为420亿美元（第一季度收入年化为103.89亿美元），将相同比例应用于蔚来预测的2025财年总收入预计将产生市盈率8.7倍，股价超过160美元。</blockquote> NIO vs. LI and XPEV<blockquote>蔚来vs.LI和XPEV</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Finviz<blockquote>资料来源：Finviz</blockquote> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.<blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与其国内同行进行了比较，以衡量蔚来股价突破100美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.<blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于LI和XPEV，前者的市盈率应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到18.1倍（XPEV的中点），也将推动该公司当前股价上涨至51.50美元，基于上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日），这意味着22%的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来2025财年收入1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）或每股18.60美元的预测，即使是18.1倍的一半也足以使蔚来的股价在2025年突破160美元；我们认为，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为届时从运营中获得的现金和技术进步将使其走上电动汽车行业持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到2030年及以后，届时该品牌的4级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote> Business Risks and Challenges<blockquote>业务风险及挑战</blockquote> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.<blockquote>正如我在之前关于蔚来的一篇文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“HFCA法案”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB的检查要求；否则，上述事务所审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前由普华永道中天会计师事务所（LLP）进行审计，该事务所被列入PCAOB的拒绝访问名单。如果中国当局和PCAOB不能很快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会成为投资者的威慑因素，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.<blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是持续的全球芯片供应短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的每一项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距越来越大。蔚来也不例外地受到持续的芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，交付量逐月增加就证明了这一点；在蔚来4月份最新的交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长125%。</blockquote> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.<blockquote>近年来，电动汽车行业的竞争也愈演愈烈。在过去十年中，由于对气候变化的日益担忧以及传统汽油燃料汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的进入门槛也大幅降低；随着初始投资变得比2003年特斯拉更加合理，新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动的汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并保持在汽车行业内的竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期保持成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（此处进一步分析）。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.<blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌影响力，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合其生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略的能力，蔚来正在有效缩小与特斯拉在全球电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价中，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，这使其成为值得选择的股票。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148130971","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.\nThe company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.\nWe believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.\n\nPhoto by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nDespite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).\nFounded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.\nA Trailblazer in Innovative Technology\nSource:ir.nio.com\nNIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the 181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are more than 226 battery swapping stations across China, with more on the way following a recent strategic partnership agreement between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.\nIn addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.\nTo further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently partnered with Mobileye – an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.\nNIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).\nSource: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nGlobal Expansion\nSource: ir.nio.com\nAnother catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the ES8, which currently retails at a starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the ET7, to follow in 2022.\nWith a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.\nNIO’s Historical Performance\nJust a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a capital injection of RMB 7 billion (approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.\nSource: Author, with data from ir.nio.com\nNIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the recently renewed manufacturing agreement with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.\nNIO vs. LI and XPEV\nSource: Finviz\nWe have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.\nConsidering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.\nBusiness Risks and Challenges\nAs mentioned in one of my previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.\nAnother imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.\nCompetition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.\nConclusion\nNIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":115910149,"gmtCreate":1622945697781,"gmtModify":1634096750780,"author":{"id":"3580342534451795","authorId":"3580342534451795","name":"Ultraviolet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a37729d59392a2fd9ac9c4dbe50e826","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3580342534451795","authorIdStr":"3580342534451795"},"htmlText":"Like an comment","listText":"Like an comment","text":"Like an comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115910149","repostId":1148130971,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148130971","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622866524,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148130971?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-05 12:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148130971","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fas","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li> <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li> <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\">Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>蔚来的股价在过去一年飙升了816%以上，在3月初的成长股抛售之前，在2月初达到了近62美元的峰值。</li><li>该公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪日益高涨，预计将提振该公司的估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来股价到2025年将飙升至160美元以上。</li></ul>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images新闻来自Getty Images</blockquote> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).<blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来已经在电动汽车行业狂热投资者中获得了国际关注。距离蔚来于2018年中期首次交付仅过去了短短三年，但许多人已经想知道其股价是否能达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的股价超过每股600美元，市值超过6000亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来有潜力在2025年之前突破每股100美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近60美元，根据上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日）计算，该目标价有超过35%的上涨潜力。</blockquote> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.<blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今在华销售和交付汽车已超过10万辆。该公司拥有一支由五款零排放、全电池驱动的车型组成的车队，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将他们的全球扩张计划变成了现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到100美元不再是“如果”的问题，而是“何时”的问题。</blockquote> A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology<blockquote>创新技术的开拓者</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\">Source:ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.<blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池交换技术“Power Swap”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车行驶里程通常有限的问题。与加油站类似，换电是一个电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池使蔚来汽车能够行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车平均行驶里程181英里的两倍多。蔚来车主可以选择订阅“电池即服务”（“BaaS”）套餐，这是一项按月订阅的服务，为蔚来车主根据个人需求提供电池升级的灵活选择。该公司目前提供标准75 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达310英里，增强型100 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达435英里；两者都可供蔚来车主在BaaS下按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个电池交换站，继蔚来与中石化最近达成战略合作协议后，更多的电池交换站正在建设中。蔚来的车辆还与当地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国164个城市提供的1,140个汽车充电站兼容，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.<blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以在更广泛的电动汽车和技术领域保持竞争力。自2016年以来，蔚来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，并于2018年在北京的公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对未来客运的承诺也通过EVE的开发得到了证明，EVE是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的NOMI AI（世界上第一个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.<blockquote>为了进一步推动自动驾驶技术的进步，蔚来最近与Mobileye合作，Mobileye是一家英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司，以开发“EyeQ芯片”而闻名，目前已被超过27家汽车制造商用于其辅助驾驶技术——开发和商业化不需要人机交互的驾驶自动化（即“4级”自动驾驶）。他们的合作预计将加速蔚来推出“自动驾驶即服务”（“ADaaS”）套餐，这是他们的自动驾驶技术“蔚来自动驾驶”（“NAD”）的每月订阅。然而，与特斯拉的“全自动驾驶”套件类似，预计将于2022年推出的NAD技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实使蔚来在通往4级自动驾驶的竞赛中与行业领导者特斯拉相提并论。蔚来车主将可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。如今上路的蔚来汽车超过10.2万辆，新的订阅套餐预计将产生8.4亿元人民币（1.32亿美元）的年销售额增量；假设大多数现有蔚来车主注册的平均车辆寿命为12年，该服务推出后的额外收入流价值约为100亿元人民币（16亿美元）。</blockquote> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).<blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的不断发展预计将在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求最大的细分市场之一，估计价值为1.6万亿美元。该市场6%的份额将为蔚来现有670亿美元的市值增加至少1000亿美元的估值，使其每股价值超过100美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的全电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长其海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占据上述市场6%以上的份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股股价超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量约为30万辆，总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\">Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（蔚来_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</blockquote> Global Expansion<blockquote>全球扩张</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">Source: ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.<blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破100美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直公开表示其全球扩张的意图，特别是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设首个海外销售及服务中心。该品牌在挪威的足迹将于2022年进一步扩大，将在Bergen、Stavanger、Trondheim和Kristiansand开设四家蔚来商店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将在欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是在挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为新蔚来车主提供该品牌赖以成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰SUV ES 8目前零售价约为67,000美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车ET 7将于2022年紧随其后。</blockquote> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.<blockquote>凭借在中国豪华电动汽车市场的良好销售记录，以及与全球公认的特斯拉相当的规格，蔚来没有理由不在海外取得成功。正如前面提到的，蔚来的车辆充满电后的行驶里程可达435英里，这使得它成为潜在的欧美车主的理想选择，他们正在寻找一个可靠的伴侣来陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的首选相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车不断增长的需求。</blockquote> NIO’s Historical Performance<blockquote>蔚来的历史表现</blockquote> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.<blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销量持续增长，但由于流动性问题，蔚来股价跌至2美元以下的历史低点。2020年年中，中国合肥市政府向蔚来注资70亿元人民币（约合10亿美元）。该安排导致创建了“蔚来中国”，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来90.36%的所有权权益，而“合肥战略投资者”联合体持有馀下9.64%。这种合作关系成为了公司的生命线；额外资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显着改善，这反映在其强劲的财务业绩和2020年夏季股价的上涨趋势上。截至2020年第二季度末，蔚来总收入环比增长171%，股价平均反弹近20%。该公司股价在2020年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均为15.40美元，并继续攀升至第四季度平均38.70美元。截至2021年3月31日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为50.97美元，并在2月份达到近62美元的峰值，是2018年IPO价格的10倍多。该公司目前的市值超过670亿美元，超过了其在纽约证券交易所上市时仅10亿美元的市值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.<blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在2月底成长型股票遭到抛售之前见顶以来，蔚来的基本面也只显示出稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级增长，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，几乎占2020年总交付量的50%。该公司继续展现出乐观的前景，4月份交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长超过125%。得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，蔚来在2021年第一季度的经营活动中也保持了正现金流，这些措施将其毛利率提高至19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者的毛利率相当。第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量将接近30万辆，这意味着总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）（每股18.60美元）。我们最近与合资企业“江淮汽车集团”（“江淮汽车”）续签的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的汽车销售预测，该协议将目前100,000辆的年产能提高到240,000辆；正在建设中的“NeoPark”亦预期将新增100万台的年产能，这进一步支持了我们对蔚来继续致力于发展其业务的积极展望。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为16.43倍，年收入约为420亿美元（第一季度收入年化为103.89亿美元），将相同比例应用于蔚来预测的2025财年总收入预计将产生市盈率8.7倍，股价超过160美元。</blockquote> NIO vs. LI and XPEV<blockquote>蔚来vs.LI和XPEV</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Finviz<blockquote>资料来源：Finviz</blockquote> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.<blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与其国内同行进行了比较，以衡量蔚来股价突破100美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.<blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于LI和XPEV，前者的市盈率应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到18.1倍（XPEV的中点），也将推动该公司当前股价上涨至51.50美元，基于上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日），这意味着22%的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来2025财年收入1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）或每股18.60美元的预测，即使是18.1倍的一半也足以使蔚来的股价在2025年突破160美元；我们认为，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为届时从运营中获得的现金和技术进步将使其走上电动汽车行业持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到2030年及以后，届时该品牌的4级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote> Business Risks and Challenges<blockquote>业务风险及挑战</blockquote> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.<blockquote>正如我在之前关于蔚来的一篇文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“HFCA法案”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB的检查要求；否则，上述事务所审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前由普华永道中天会计师事务所（LLP）进行审计，该事务所被列入PCAOB的拒绝访问名单。如果中国当局和PCAOB不能很快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会成为投资者的威慑因素，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.<blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是持续的全球芯片供应短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的每一项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距越来越大。蔚来也不例外地受到持续的芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，交付量逐月增加就证明了这一点；在蔚来4月份最新的交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长125%。</blockquote> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.<blockquote>近年来，电动汽车行业的竞争也愈演愈烈。在过去十年中，由于对气候变化的日益担忧以及传统汽油燃料汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的进入门槛也大幅降低；随着初始投资变得比2003年特斯拉更加合理，新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动的汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并保持在汽车行业内的竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期保持成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（此处进一步分析）。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.<blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌影响力，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合其生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略的能力，蔚来正在有效缩小与特斯拉在全球电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价中，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，这使其成为值得选择的股票。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-06-05 12:15\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li> <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li> <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\">Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>蔚来的股价在过去一年飙升了816%以上，在3月初的成长股抛售之前，在2月初达到了近62美元的峰值。</li><li>该公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪日益高涨，预计将提振该公司的估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来股价到2025年将飙升至160美元以上。</li></ul>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images新闻来自Getty Images</blockquote> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).<blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来已经在电动汽车行业狂热投资者中获得了国际关注。距离蔚来于2018年中期首次交付仅过去了短短三年，但许多人已经想知道其股价是否能达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的股价超过每股600美元，市值超过6000亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来有潜力在2025年之前突破每股100美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近60美元，根据上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日）计算，该目标价有超过35%的上涨潜力。</blockquote> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.<blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今在华销售和交付汽车已超过10万辆。该公司拥有一支由五款零排放、全电池驱动的车型组成的车队，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将他们的全球扩张计划变成了现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到100美元不再是“如果”的问题，而是“何时”的问题。</blockquote> A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology<blockquote>创新技术的开拓者</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\">Source:ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.<blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池交换技术“Power Swap”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车行驶里程通常有限的问题。与加油站类似，换电是一个电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池使蔚来汽车能够行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车平均行驶里程181英里的两倍多。蔚来车主可以选择订阅“电池即服务”（“BaaS”）套餐，这是一项按月订阅的服务，为蔚来车主根据个人需求提供电池升级的灵活选择。该公司目前提供标准75 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达310英里，增强型100 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达435英里；两者都可供蔚来车主在BaaS下按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个电池交换站，继蔚来与中石化最近达成战略合作协议后，更多的电池交换站正在建设中。蔚来的车辆还与当地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国164个城市提供的1,140个汽车充电站兼容，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.<blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以在更广泛的电动汽车和技术领域保持竞争力。自2016年以来，蔚来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，并于2018年在北京的公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对未来客运的承诺也通过EVE的开发得到了证明，EVE是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的NOMI AI（世界上第一个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.<blockquote>为了进一步推动自动驾驶技术的进步，蔚来最近与Mobileye合作，Mobileye是一家英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司，以开发“EyeQ芯片”而闻名，目前已被超过27家汽车制造商用于其辅助驾驶技术——开发和商业化不需要人机交互的驾驶自动化（即“4级”自动驾驶）。他们的合作预计将加速蔚来推出“自动驾驶即服务”（“ADaaS”）套餐，这是他们的自动驾驶技术“蔚来自动驾驶”（“NAD”）的每月订阅。然而，与特斯拉的“全自动驾驶”套件类似，预计将于2022年推出的NAD技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实使蔚来在通往4级自动驾驶的竞赛中与行业领导者特斯拉相提并论。蔚来车主将可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。如今上路的蔚来汽车超过10.2万辆，新的订阅套餐预计将产生8.4亿元人民币（1.32亿美元）的年销售额增量；假设大多数现有蔚来车主注册的平均车辆寿命为12年，该服务推出后的额外收入流价值约为100亿元人民币（16亿美元）。</blockquote> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).<blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的不断发展预计将在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求最大的细分市场之一，估计价值为1.6万亿美元。该市场6%的份额将为蔚来现有670亿美元的市值增加至少1000亿美元的估值，使其每股价值超过100美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的全电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长其海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占据上述市场6%以上的份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股股价超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量约为30万辆，总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\">Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（蔚来_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</blockquote> Global Expansion<blockquote>全球扩张</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">Source: ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.<blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破100美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直公开表示其全球扩张的意图，特别是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设首个海外销售及服务中心。该品牌在挪威的足迹将于2022年进一步扩大，将在Bergen、Stavanger、Trondheim和Kristiansand开设四家蔚来商店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将在欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是在挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为新蔚来车主提供该品牌赖以成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰SUV ES 8目前零售价约为67,000美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车ET 7将于2022年紧随其后。</blockquote> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.<blockquote>凭借在中国豪华电动汽车市场的良好销售记录，以及与全球公认的特斯拉相当的规格，蔚来没有理由不在海外取得成功。正如前面提到的，蔚来的车辆充满电后的行驶里程可达435英里，这使得它成为潜在的欧美车主的理想选择，他们正在寻找一个可靠的伴侣来陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的首选相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车不断增长的需求。</blockquote> NIO’s Historical Performance<blockquote>蔚来的历史表现</blockquote> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.<blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销量持续增长，但由于流动性问题，蔚来股价跌至2美元以下的历史低点。2020年年中，中国合肥市政府向蔚来注资70亿元人民币（约合10亿美元）。该安排导致创建了“蔚来中国”，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来90.36%的所有权权益，而“合肥战略投资者”联合体持有馀下9.64%。这种合作关系成为了公司的生命线；额外资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显着改善，这反映在其强劲的财务业绩和2020年夏季股价的上涨趋势上。截至2020年第二季度末，蔚来总收入环比增长171%，股价平均反弹近20%。该公司股价在2020年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均为15.40美元，并继续攀升至第四季度平均38.70美元。截至2021年3月31日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为50.97美元，并在2月份达到近62美元的峰值，是2018年IPO价格的10倍多。该公司目前的市值超过670亿美元，超过了其在纽约证券交易所上市时仅10亿美元的市值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.<blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在2月底成长型股票遭到抛售之前见顶以来，蔚来的基本面也只显示出稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级增长，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，几乎占2020年总交付量的50%。该公司继续展现出乐观的前景，4月份交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长超过125%。得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，蔚来在2021年第一季度的经营活动中也保持了正现金流，这些措施将其毛利率提高至19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者的毛利率相当。第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量将接近30万辆，这意味着总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）（每股18.60美元）。我们最近与合资企业“江淮汽车集团”（“江淮汽车”）续签的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的汽车销售预测，该协议将目前100,000辆的年产能提高到240,000辆；正在建设中的“NeoPark”亦预期将新增100万台的年产能，这进一步支持了我们对蔚来继续致力于发展其业务的积极展望。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为16.43倍，年收入约为420亿美元（第一季度收入年化为103.89亿美元），将相同比例应用于蔚来预测的2025财年总收入预计将产生市盈率8.7倍，股价超过160美元。</blockquote> NIO vs. LI and XPEV<blockquote>蔚来vs.LI和XPEV</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Finviz<blockquote>资料来源：Finviz</blockquote> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.<blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与其国内同行进行了比较，以衡量蔚来股价突破100美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.<blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于LI和XPEV，前者的市盈率应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到18.1倍（XPEV的中点），也将推动该公司当前股价上涨至51.50美元，基于上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日），这意味着22%的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来2025财年收入1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）或每股18.60美元的预测，即使是18.1倍的一半也足以使蔚来的股价在2025年突破160美元；我们认为，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为届时从运营中获得的现金和技术进步将使其走上电动汽车行业持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到2030年及以后，届时该品牌的4级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote> Business Risks and Challenges<blockquote>业务风险及挑战</blockquote> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.<blockquote>正如我在之前关于蔚来的一篇文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“HFCA法案”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB的检查要求；否则，上述事务所审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前由普华永道中天会计师事务所（LLP）进行审计，该事务所被列入PCAOB的拒绝访问名单。如果中国当局和PCAOB不能很快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会成为投资者的威慑因素，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.<blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是持续的全球芯片供应短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的每一项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距越来越大。蔚来也不例外地受到持续的芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，交付量逐月增加就证明了这一点；在蔚来4月份最新的交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长125%。</blockquote> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.<blockquote>近年来，电动汽车行业的竞争也愈演愈烈。在过去十年中，由于对气候变化的日益担忧以及传统汽油燃料汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的进入门槛也大幅降低；随着初始投资变得比2003年特斯拉更加合理，新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动的汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并保持在汽车行业内的竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期保持成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（此处进一步分析）。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.<blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌影响力，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合其生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略的能力，蔚来正在有效缩小与特斯拉在全球电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价中，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，这使其成为值得选择的股票。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148130971","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.\nThe company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.\nWe believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.\n\nPhoto by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nDespite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).\nFounded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.\nA Trailblazer in Innovative Technology\nSource:ir.nio.com\nNIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the 181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are more than 226 battery swapping stations across China, with more on the way following a recent strategic partnership agreement between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.\nIn addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.\nTo further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently partnered with Mobileye – an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.\nNIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).\nSource: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nGlobal Expansion\nSource: ir.nio.com\nAnother catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the ES8, which currently retails at a starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the ET7, to follow in 2022.\nWith a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.\nNIO’s Historical Performance\nJust a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a capital injection of RMB 7 billion (approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.\nSource: Author, with data from ir.nio.com\nNIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the recently renewed manufacturing agreement with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.\nNIO vs. LI and XPEV\nSource: Finviz\nWe have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.\nConsidering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.\nBusiness Risks and Challenges\nAs mentioned in one of my previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.\nAnother imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.\nCompetition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.\nConclusion\nNIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":115910921,"gmtCreate":1622945684963,"gmtModify":1634096750900,"author":{"id":"3559522411638426","authorId":"3559522411638426","name":"paxxie","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3559522411638426","authorIdStr":"3559522411638426"},"htmlText":"like and comment thanks&nbsp;","listText":"like and comment thanks&nbsp;","text":"like and comment thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115910921","repostId":1148130971,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148130971","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622866524,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148130971?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-05 12:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148130971","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fas","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li> <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li> <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\">Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>蔚来的股价在过去一年飙升了816%以上，在3月初的成长股抛售之前，在2月初达到了近62美元的峰值。</li><li>该公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪日益高涨，预计将提振该公司的估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来股价到2025年将飙升至160美元以上。</li></ul>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images新闻来自Getty Images</blockquote> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).<blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来已经在电动汽车行业狂热投资者中获得了国际关注。距离蔚来于2018年中期首次交付仅过去了短短三年，但许多人已经想知道其股价是否能达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的股价超过每股600美元，市值超过6000亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来有潜力在2025年之前突破每股100美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近60美元，根据上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日）计算，该目标价有超过35%的上涨潜力。</blockquote> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.<blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今在华销售和交付汽车已超过10万辆。该公司拥有一支由五款零排放、全电池驱动的车型组成的车队，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将他们的全球扩张计划变成了现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到100美元不再是“如果”的问题，而是“何时”的问题。</blockquote> A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology<blockquote>创新技术的开拓者</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\">Source:ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.<blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池交换技术“Power Swap”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车行驶里程通常有限的问题。与加油站类似，换电是一个电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池使蔚来汽车能够行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车平均行驶里程181英里的两倍多。蔚来车主可以选择订阅“电池即服务”（“BaaS”）套餐，这是一项按月订阅的服务，为蔚来车主根据个人需求提供电池升级的灵活选择。该公司目前提供标准75 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达310英里，增强型100 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达435英里；两者都可供蔚来车主在BaaS下按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个电池交换站，继蔚来与中石化最近达成战略合作协议后，更多的电池交换站正在建设中。蔚来的车辆还与当地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国164个城市提供的1,140个汽车充电站兼容，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.<blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以在更广泛的电动汽车和技术领域保持竞争力。自2016年以来，蔚来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，并于2018年在北京的公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对未来客运的承诺也通过EVE的开发得到了证明，EVE是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的NOMI AI（世界上第一个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.<blockquote>为了进一步推动自动驾驶技术的进步，蔚来最近与Mobileye合作，Mobileye是一家英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司，以开发“EyeQ芯片”而闻名，目前已被超过27家汽车制造商用于其辅助驾驶技术——开发和商业化不需要人机交互的驾驶自动化（即“4级”自动驾驶）。他们的合作预计将加速蔚来推出“自动驾驶即服务”（“ADaaS”）套餐，这是他们的自动驾驶技术“蔚来自动驾驶”（“NAD”）的每月订阅。然而，与特斯拉的“全自动驾驶”套件类似，预计将于2022年推出的NAD技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实使蔚来在通往4级自动驾驶的竞赛中与行业领导者特斯拉相提并论。蔚来车主将可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。如今上路的蔚来汽车超过10.2万辆，新的订阅套餐预计将产生8.4亿元人民币（1.32亿美元）的年销售额增量；假设大多数现有蔚来车主注册的平均车辆寿命为12年，该服务推出后的额外收入流价值约为100亿元人民币（16亿美元）。</blockquote> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).<blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的不断发展预计将在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求最大的细分市场之一，估计价值为1.6万亿美元。该市场6%的份额将为蔚来现有670亿美元的市值增加至少1000亿美元的估值，使其每股价值超过100美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的全电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长其海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占据上述市场6%以上的份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股股价超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量约为30万辆，总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\">Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（蔚来_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</blockquote> Global Expansion<blockquote>全球扩张</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">Source: ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.<blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破100美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直公开表示其全球扩张的意图，特别是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设首个海外销售及服务中心。该品牌在挪威的足迹将于2022年进一步扩大，将在Bergen、Stavanger、Trondheim和Kristiansand开设四家蔚来商店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将在欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是在挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为新蔚来车主提供该品牌赖以成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰SUV ES 8目前零售价约为67,000美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车ET 7将于2022年紧随其后。</blockquote> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.<blockquote>凭借在中国豪华电动汽车市场的良好销售记录，以及与全球公认的特斯拉相当的规格，蔚来没有理由不在海外取得成功。正如前面提到的，蔚来的车辆充满电后的行驶里程可达435英里，这使得它成为潜在的欧美车主的理想选择，他们正在寻找一个可靠的伴侣来陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的首选相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车不断增长的需求。</blockquote> NIO’s Historical Performance<blockquote>蔚来的历史表现</blockquote> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.<blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销量持续增长，但由于流动性问题，蔚来股价跌至2美元以下的历史低点。2020年年中，中国合肥市政府向蔚来注资70亿元人民币（约合10亿美元）。该安排导致创建了“蔚来中国”，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来90.36%的所有权权益，而“合肥战略投资者”联合体持有馀下9.64%。这种合作关系成为了公司的生命线；额外资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显着改善，这反映在其强劲的财务业绩和2020年夏季股价的上涨趋势上。截至2020年第二季度末，蔚来总收入环比增长171%，股价平均反弹近20%。该公司股价在2020年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均为15.40美元，并继续攀升至第四季度平均38.70美元。截至2021年3月31日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为50.97美元，并在2月份达到近62美元的峰值，是2018年IPO价格的10倍多。该公司目前的市值超过670亿美元，超过了其在纽约证券交易所上市时仅10亿美元的市值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.<blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在2月底成长型股票遭到抛售之前见顶以来，蔚来的基本面也只显示出稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级增长，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，几乎占2020年总交付量的50%。该公司继续展现出乐观的前景，4月份交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长超过125%。得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，蔚来在2021年第一季度的经营活动中也保持了正现金流，这些措施将其毛利率提高至19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者的毛利率相当。第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量将接近30万辆，这意味着总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）（每股18.60美元）。我们最近与合资企业“江淮汽车集团”（“江淮汽车”）续签的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的汽车销售预测，该协议将目前100,000辆的年产能提高到240,000辆；正在建设中的“NeoPark”亦预期将新增100万台的年产能，这进一步支持了我们对蔚来继续致力于发展其业务的积极展望。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为16.43倍，年收入约为420亿美元（第一季度收入年化为103.89亿美元），将相同比例应用于蔚来预测的2025财年总收入预计将产生市盈率8.7倍，股价超过160美元。</blockquote> NIO vs. LI and XPEV<blockquote>蔚来vs.LI和XPEV</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Finviz<blockquote>资料来源：Finviz</blockquote> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.<blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与其国内同行进行了比较，以衡量蔚来股价突破100美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.<blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于LI和XPEV，前者的市盈率应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到18.1倍（XPEV的中点），也将推动该公司当前股价上涨至51.50美元，基于上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日），这意味着22%的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来2025财年收入1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）或每股18.60美元的预测，即使是18.1倍的一半也足以使蔚来的股价在2025年突破160美元；我们认为，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为届时从运营中获得的现金和技术进步将使其走上电动汽车行业持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到2030年及以后，届时该品牌的4级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote> Business Risks and Challenges<blockquote>业务风险及挑战</blockquote> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.<blockquote>正如我在之前关于蔚来的一篇文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“HFCA法案”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB的检查要求；否则，上述事务所审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前由普华永道中天会计师事务所（LLP）进行审计，该事务所被列入PCAOB的拒绝访问名单。如果中国当局和PCAOB不能很快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会成为投资者的威慑因素，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.<blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是持续的全球芯片供应短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的每一项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距越来越大。蔚来也不例外地受到持续的芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，交付量逐月增加就证明了这一点；在蔚来4月份最新的交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长125%。</blockquote> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.<blockquote>近年来，电动汽车行业的竞争也愈演愈烈。在过去十年中，由于对气候变化的日益担忧以及传统汽油燃料汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的进入门槛也大幅降低；随着初始投资变得比2003年特斯拉更加合理，新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动的汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并保持在汽车行业内的竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期保持成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（此处进一步分析）。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.<blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌影响力，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合其生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略的能力，蔚来正在有效缩小与特斯拉在全球电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价中，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，这使其成为值得选择的股票。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-06-05 12:15\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li> <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li> <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\">Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>蔚来的股价在过去一年飙升了816%以上，在3月初的成长股抛售之前，在2月初达到了近62美元的峰值。</li><li>该公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪日益高涨，预计将提振该公司的估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来股价到2025年将飙升至160美元以上。</li></ul>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images新闻来自Getty Images</blockquote> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).<blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来已经在电动汽车行业狂热投资者中获得了国际关注。距离蔚来于2018年中期首次交付仅过去了短短三年，但许多人已经想知道其股价是否能达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的股价超过每股600美元，市值超过6000亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来有潜力在2025年之前突破每股100美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近60美元，根据上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日）计算，该目标价有超过35%的上涨潜力。</blockquote> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.<blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今在华销售和交付汽车已超过10万辆。该公司拥有一支由五款零排放、全电池驱动的车型组成的车队，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将他们的全球扩张计划变成了现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到100美元不再是“如果”的问题，而是“何时”的问题。</blockquote> A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology<blockquote>创新技术的开拓者</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\">Source:ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.<blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池交换技术“Power Swap”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车行驶里程通常有限的问题。与加油站类似，换电是一个电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池使蔚来汽车能够行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车平均行驶里程181英里的两倍多。蔚来车主可以选择订阅“电池即服务”（“BaaS”）套餐，这是一项按月订阅的服务，为蔚来车主根据个人需求提供电池升级的灵活选择。该公司目前提供标准75 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达310英里，增强型100 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达435英里；两者都可供蔚来车主在BaaS下按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个电池交换站，继蔚来与中石化最近达成战略合作协议后，更多的电池交换站正在建设中。蔚来的车辆还与当地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国164个城市提供的1,140个汽车充电站兼容，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.<blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以在更广泛的电动汽车和技术领域保持竞争力。自2016年以来，蔚来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，并于2018年在北京的公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对未来客运的承诺也通过EVE的开发得到了证明，EVE是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的NOMI AI（世界上第一个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.<blockquote>为了进一步推动自动驾驶技术的进步，蔚来最近与Mobileye合作，Mobileye是一家英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司，以开发“EyeQ芯片”而闻名，目前已被超过27家汽车制造商用于其辅助驾驶技术——开发和商业化不需要人机交互的驾驶自动化（即“4级”自动驾驶）。他们的合作预计将加速蔚来推出“自动驾驶即服务”（“ADaaS”）套餐，这是他们的自动驾驶技术“蔚来自动驾驶”（“NAD”）的每月订阅。然而，与特斯拉的“全自动驾驶”套件类似，预计将于2022年推出的NAD技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实使蔚来在通往4级自动驾驶的竞赛中与行业领导者特斯拉相提并论。蔚来车主将可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。如今上路的蔚来汽车超过10.2万辆，新的订阅套餐预计将产生8.4亿元人民币（1.32亿美元）的年销售额增量；假设大多数现有蔚来车主注册的平均车辆寿命为12年，该服务推出后的额外收入流价值约为100亿元人民币（16亿美元）。</blockquote> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).<blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的不断发展预计将在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求最大的细分市场之一，估计价值为1.6万亿美元。该市场6%的份额将为蔚来现有670亿美元的市值增加至少1000亿美元的估值，使其每股价值超过100美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的全电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长其海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占据上述市场6%以上的份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股股价超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量约为30万辆，总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\">Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（蔚来_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</blockquote> Global Expansion<blockquote>全球扩张</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">Source: ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.<blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破100美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直公开表示其全球扩张的意图，特别是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设首个海外销售及服务中心。该品牌在挪威的足迹将于2022年进一步扩大，将在Bergen、Stavanger、Trondheim和Kristiansand开设四家蔚来商店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将在欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是在挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为新蔚来车主提供该品牌赖以成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰SUV ES 8目前零售价约为67,000美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车ET 7将于2022年紧随其后。</blockquote> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.<blockquote>凭借在中国豪华电动汽车市场的良好销售记录，以及与全球公认的特斯拉相当的规格，蔚来没有理由不在海外取得成功。正如前面提到的，蔚来的车辆充满电后的行驶里程可达435英里，这使得它成为潜在的欧美车主的理想选择，他们正在寻找一个可靠的伴侣来陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的首选相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车不断增长的需求。</blockquote> NIO’s Historical Performance<blockquote>蔚来的历史表现</blockquote> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.<blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销量持续增长，但由于流动性问题，蔚来股价跌至2美元以下的历史低点。2020年年中，中国合肥市政府向蔚来注资70亿元人民币（约合10亿美元）。该安排导致创建了“蔚来中国”，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来90.36%的所有权权益，而“合肥战略投资者”联合体持有馀下9.64%。这种合作关系成为了公司的生命线；额外资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显着改善，这反映在其强劲的财务业绩和2020年夏季股价的上涨趋势上。截至2020年第二季度末，蔚来总收入环比增长171%，股价平均反弹近20%。该公司股价在2020年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均为15.40美元，并继续攀升至第四季度平均38.70美元。截至2021年3月31日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为50.97美元，并在2月份达到近62美元的峰值，是2018年IPO价格的10倍多。该公司目前的市值超过670亿美元，超过了其在纽约证券交易所上市时仅10亿美元的市值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.<blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在2月底成长型股票遭到抛售之前见顶以来，蔚来的基本面也只显示出稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级增长，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，几乎占2020年总交付量的50%。该公司继续展现出乐观的前景，4月份交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长超过125%。得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，蔚来在2021年第一季度的经营活动中也保持了正现金流，这些措施将其毛利率提高至19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者的毛利率相当。第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量将接近30万辆，这意味着总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）（每股18.60美元）。我们最近与合资企业“江淮汽车集团”（“江淮汽车”）续签的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的汽车销售预测，该协议将目前100,000辆的年产能提高到240,000辆；正在建设中的“NeoPark”亦预期将新增100万台的年产能，这进一步支持了我们对蔚来继续致力于发展其业务的积极展望。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为16.43倍，年收入约为420亿美元（第一季度收入年化为103.89亿美元），将相同比例应用于蔚来预测的2025财年总收入预计将产生市盈率8.7倍，股价超过160美元。</blockquote> NIO vs. LI and XPEV<blockquote>蔚来vs.LI和XPEV</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Finviz<blockquote>资料来源：Finviz</blockquote> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.<blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与其国内同行进行了比较，以衡量蔚来股价突破100美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.<blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于LI和XPEV，前者的市盈率应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到18.1倍（XPEV的中点），也将推动该公司当前股价上涨至51.50美元，基于上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日），这意味着22%的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来2025财年收入1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）或每股18.60美元的预测，即使是18.1倍的一半也足以使蔚来的股价在2025年突破160美元；我们认为，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为届时从运营中获得的现金和技术进步将使其走上电动汽车行业持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到2030年及以后，届时该品牌的4级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote> Business Risks and Challenges<blockquote>业务风险及挑战</blockquote> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.<blockquote>正如我在之前关于蔚来的一篇文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“HFCA法案”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB的检查要求；否则，上述事务所审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前由普华永道中天会计师事务所（LLP）进行审计，该事务所被列入PCAOB的拒绝访问名单。如果中国当局和PCAOB不能很快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会成为投资者的威慑因素，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.<blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是持续的全球芯片供应短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的每一项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距越来越大。蔚来也不例外地受到持续的芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，交付量逐月增加就证明了这一点；在蔚来4月份最新的交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长125%。</blockquote> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.<blockquote>近年来，电动汽车行业的竞争也愈演愈烈。在过去十年中，由于对气候变化的日益担忧以及传统汽油燃料汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的进入门槛也大幅降低；随着初始投资变得比2003年特斯拉更加合理，新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动的汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并保持在汽车行业内的竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期保持成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（此处进一步分析）。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.<blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌影响力，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合其生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略的能力，蔚来正在有效缩小与特斯拉在全球电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价中，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，这使其成为值得选择的股票。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148130971","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.\nThe company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.\nWe believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.\n\nPhoto by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nDespite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).\nFounded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.\nA Trailblazer in Innovative Technology\nSource:ir.nio.com\nNIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the 181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are more than 226 battery swapping stations across China, with more on the way following a recent strategic partnership agreement between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.\nIn addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.\nTo further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently partnered with Mobileye – an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.\nNIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).\nSource: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nGlobal Expansion\nSource: ir.nio.com\nAnother catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the ES8, which currently retails at a starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the ET7, to follow in 2022.\nWith a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.\nNIO’s Historical Performance\nJust a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a capital injection of RMB 7 billion (approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.\nSource: Author, with data from ir.nio.com\nNIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the recently renewed manufacturing agreement with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.\nNIO vs. LI and XPEV\nSource: Finviz\nWe have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.\nConsidering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.\nBusiness Risks and Challenges\nAs mentioned in one of my previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.\nAnother imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.\nCompetition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.\nConclusion\nNIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4598100,"gmtCreate":1622945715383,"gmtModify":1635335441980,"authorId":3580342534451795,"author":{"id":3580342534451795,"idStr":"3580342534451795","authorId":3580342534451795,"name":"Ultraviolet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a37729d59392a2fd9ac9c4dbe50e826","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":115910921,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Pls reply as well","text":"Pls reply as well","html":"Pls reply as well"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":115936331,"gmtCreate":1622945460023,"gmtModify":1631889692386,"author":{"id":"3572591577571735","authorId":"3572591577571735","name":"Ziling","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572591577571735","authorIdStr":"3572591577571735"},"htmlText":"[Strong]&nbsp;","listText":"[Strong]&nbsp;","text":"[Strong]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115936331","repostId":1148130971,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148130971","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622866524,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148130971?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-05 12:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148130971","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fas","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li> <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li> <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\">Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>蔚来的股价在过去一年飙升了816%以上，在3月初的成长股抛售之前，在2月初达到了近62美元的峰值。</li><li>该公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪日益高涨，预计将提振该公司的估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来股价到2025年将飙升至160美元以上。</li></ul>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images新闻来自Getty Images</blockquote> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).<blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来已经在电动汽车行业狂热投资者中获得了国际关注。距离蔚来于2018年中期首次交付仅过去了短短三年，但许多人已经想知道其股价是否能达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的股价超过每股600美元，市值超过6000亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来有潜力在2025年之前突破每股100美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近60美元，根据上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日）计算，该目标价有超过35%的上涨潜力。</blockquote> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.<blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今在华销售和交付汽车已超过10万辆。该公司拥有一支由五款零排放、全电池驱动的车型组成的车队，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将他们的全球扩张计划变成了现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到100美元不再是“如果”的问题，而是“何时”的问题。</blockquote> A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology<blockquote>创新技术的开拓者</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\">Source:ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.<blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池交换技术“Power Swap”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车行驶里程通常有限的问题。与加油站类似，换电是一个电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池使蔚来汽车能够行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车平均行驶里程181英里的两倍多。蔚来车主可以选择订阅“电池即服务”（“BaaS”）套餐，这是一项按月订阅的服务，为蔚来车主根据个人需求提供电池升级的灵活选择。该公司目前提供标准75 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达310英里，增强型100 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达435英里；两者都可供蔚来车主在BaaS下按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个电池交换站，继蔚来与中石化最近达成战略合作协议后，更多的电池交换站正在建设中。蔚来的车辆还与当地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国164个城市提供的1,140个汽车充电站兼容，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.<blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以在更广泛的电动汽车和技术领域保持竞争力。自2016年以来，蔚来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，并于2018年在北京的公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对未来客运的承诺也通过EVE的开发得到了证明，EVE是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的NOMI AI（世界上第一个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.<blockquote>为了进一步推动自动驾驶技术的进步，蔚来最近与Mobileye合作，Mobileye是一家英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司，以开发“EyeQ芯片”而闻名，目前已被超过27家汽车制造商用于其辅助驾驶技术——开发和商业化不需要人机交互的驾驶自动化（即“4级”自动驾驶）。他们的合作预计将加速蔚来推出“自动驾驶即服务”（“ADaaS”）套餐，这是他们的自动驾驶技术“蔚来自动驾驶”（“NAD”）的每月订阅。然而，与特斯拉的“全自动驾驶”套件类似，预计将于2022年推出的NAD技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实使蔚来在通往4级自动驾驶的竞赛中与行业领导者特斯拉相提并论。蔚来车主将可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。如今上路的蔚来汽车超过10.2万辆，新的订阅套餐预计将产生8.4亿元人民币（1.32亿美元）的年销售额增量；假设大多数现有蔚来车主注册的平均车辆寿命为12年，该服务推出后的额外收入流价值约为100亿元人民币（16亿美元）。</blockquote> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).<blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的不断发展预计将在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求最大的细分市场之一，估计价值为1.6万亿美元。该市场6%的份额将为蔚来现有670亿美元的市值增加至少1000亿美元的估值，使其每股价值超过100美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的全电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长其海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占据上述市场6%以上的份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股股价超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量约为30万辆，总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\">Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（蔚来_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</blockquote> Global Expansion<blockquote>全球扩张</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">Source: ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.<blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破100美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直公开表示其全球扩张的意图，特别是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设首个海外销售及服务中心。该品牌在挪威的足迹将于2022年进一步扩大，将在Bergen、Stavanger、Trondheim和Kristiansand开设四家蔚来商店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将在欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是在挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为新蔚来车主提供该品牌赖以成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰SUV ES 8目前零售价约为67,000美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车ET 7将于2022年紧随其后。</blockquote> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.<blockquote>凭借在中国豪华电动汽车市场的良好销售记录，以及与全球公认的特斯拉相当的规格，蔚来没有理由不在海外取得成功。正如前面提到的，蔚来的车辆充满电后的行驶里程可达435英里，这使得它成为潜在的欧美车主的理想选择，他们正在寻找一个可靠的伴侣来陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的首选相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车不断增长的需求。</blockquote> NIO’s Historical Performance<blockquote>蔚来的历史表现</blockquote> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.<blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销量持续增长，但由于流动性问题，蔚来股价跌至2美元以下的历史低点。2020年年中，中国合肥市政府向蔚来注资70亿元人民币（约合10亿美元）。该安排导致创建了“蔚来中国”，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来90.36%的所有权权益，而“合肥战略投资者”联合体持有馀下9.64%。这种合作关系成为了公司的生命线；额外资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显着改善，这反映在其强劲的财务业绩和2020年夏季股价的上涨趋势上。截至2020年第二季度末，蔚来总收入环比增长171%，股价平均反弹近20%。该公司股价在2020年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均为15.40美元，并继续攀升至第四季度平均38.70美元。截至2021年3月31日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为50.97美元，并在2月份达到近62美元的峰值，是2018年IPO价格的10倍多。该公司目前的市值超过670亿美元，超过了其在纽约证券交易所上市时仅10亿美元的市值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.<blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在2月底成长型股票遭到抛售之前见顶以来，蔚来的基本面也只显示出稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级增长，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，几乎占2020年总交付量的50%。该公司继续展现出乐观的前景，4月份交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长超过125%。得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，蔚来在2021年第一季度的经营活动中也保持了正现金流，这些措施将其毛利率提高至19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者的毛利率相当。第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量将接近30万辆，这意味着总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）（每股18.60美元）。我们最近与合资企业“江淮汽车集团”（“江淮汽车”）续签的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的汽车销售预测，该协议将目前100,000辆的年产能提高到240,000辆；正在建设中的“NeoPark”亦预期将新增100万台的年产能，这进一步支持了我们对蔚来继续致力于发展其业务的积极展望。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为16.43倍，年收入约为420亿美元（第一季度收入年化为103.89亿美元），将相同比例应用于蔚来预测的2025财年总收入预计将产生市盈率8.7倍，股价超过160美元。</blockquote> NIO vs. LI and XPEV<blockquote>蔚来vs.LI和XPEV</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Finviz<blockquote>资料来源：Finviz</blockquote> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.<blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与其国内同行进行了比较，以衡量蔚来股价突破100美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.<blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于LI和XPEV，前者的市盈率应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到18.1倍（XPEV的中点），也将推动该公司当前股价上涨至51.50美元，基于上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日），这意味着22%的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来2025财年收入1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）或每股18.60美元的预测，即使是18.1倍的一半也足以使蔚来的股价在2025年突破160美元；我们认为，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为届时从运营中获得的现金和技术进步将使其走上电动汽车行业持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到2030年及以后，届时该品牌的4级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote> Business Risks and Challenges<blockquote>业务风险及挑战</blockquote> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.<blockquote>正如我在之前关于蔚来的一篇文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“HFCA法案”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB的检查要求；否则，上述事务所审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前由普华永道中天会计师事务所（LLP）进行审计，该事务所被列入PCAOB的拒绝访问名单。如果中国当局和PCAOB不能很快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会成为投资者的威慑因素，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.<blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是持续的全球芯片供应短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的每一项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距越来越大。蔚来也不例外地受到持续的芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，交付量逐月增加就证明了这一点；在蔚来4月份最新的交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长125%。</blockquote> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.<blockquote>近年来，电动汽车行业的竞争也愈演愈烈。在过去十年中，由于对气候变化的日益担忧以及传统汽油燃料汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的进入门槛也大幅降低；随着初始投资变得比2003年特斯拉更加合理，新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动的汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并保持在汽车行业内的竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期保持成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（此处进一步分析）。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.<blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌影响力，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合其生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略的能力，蔚来正在有效缩小与特斯拉在全球电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价中，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，这使其成为值得选择的股票。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-06-05 12:15\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li> <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li> <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\">Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>蔚来的股价在过去一年飙升了816%以上，在3月初的成长股抛售之前，在2月初达到了近62美元的峰值。</li><li>该公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪日益高涨，预计将提振该公司的估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来股价到2025年将飙升至160美元以上。</li></ul>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images新闻来自Getty Images</blockquote> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).<blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来已经在电动汽车行业狂热投资者中获得了国际关注。距离蔚来于2018年中期首次交付仅过去了短短三年，但许多人已经想知道其股价是否能达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的股价超过每股600美元，市值超过6000亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来有潜力在2025年之前突破每股100美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近60美元，根据上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日）计算，该目标价有超过35%的上涨潜力。</blockquote> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.<blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今在华销售和交付汽车已超过10万辆。该公司拥有一支由五款零排放、全电池驱动的车型组成的车队，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将他们的全球扩张计划变成了现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到100美元不再是“如果”的问题，而是“何时”的问题。</blockquote> A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology<blockquote>创新技术的开拓者</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\">Source:ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.<blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池交换技术“Power Swap”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车行驶里程通常有限的问题。与加油站类似，换电是一个电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池使蔚来汽车能够行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车平均行驶里程181英里的两倍多。蔚来车主可以选择订阅“电池即服务”（“BaaS”）套餐，这是一项按月订阅的服务，为蔚来车主根据个人需求提供电池升级的灵活选择。该公司目前提供标准75 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达310英里，增强型100 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达435英里；两者都可供蔚来车主在BaaS下按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个电池交换站，继蔚来与中石化最近达成战略合作协议后，更多的电池交换站正在建设中。蔚来的车辆还与当地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国164个城市提供的1,140个汽车充电站兼容，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.<blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以在更广泛的电动汽车和技术领域保持竞争力。自2016年以来，蔚来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，并于2018年在北京的公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对未来客运的承诺也通过EVE的开发得到了证明，EVE是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的NOMI AI（世界上第一个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.<blockquote>为了进一步推动自动驾驶技术的进步，蔚来最近与Mobileye合作，Mobileye是一家英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司，以开发“EyeQ芯片”而闻名，目前已被超过27家汽车制造商用于其辅助驾驶技术——开发和商业化不需要人机交互的驾驶自动化（即“4级”自动驾驶）。他们的合作预计将加速蔚来推出“自动驾驶即服务”（“ADaaS”）套餐，这是他们的自动驾驶技术“蔚来自动驾驶”（“NAD”）的每月订阅。然而，与特斯拉的“全自动驾驶”套件类似，预计将于2022年推出的NAD技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实使蔚来在通往4级自动驾驶的竞赛中与行业领导者特斯拉相提并论。蔚来车主将可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。如今上路的蔚来汽车超过10.2万辆，新的订阅套餐预计将产生8.4亿元人民币（1.32亿美元）的年销售额增量；假设大多数现有蔚来车主注册的平均车辆寿命为12年，该服务推出后的额外收入流价值约为100亿元人民币（16亿美元）。</blockquote> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).<blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的不断发展预计将在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求最大的细分市场之一，估计价值为1.6万亿美元。该市场6%的份额将为蔚来现有670亿美元的市值增加至少1000亿美元的估值，使其每股价值超过100美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的全电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长其海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占据上述市场6%以上的份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股股价超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量约为30万辆，总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\">Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（蔚来_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</blockquote> Global Expansion<blockquote>全球扩张</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">Source: ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.<blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破100美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直公开表示其全球扩张的意图，特别是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设首个海外销售及服务中心。该品牌在挪威的足迹将于2022年进一步扩大，将在Bergen、Stavanger、Trondheim和Kristiansand开设四家蔚来商店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将在欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是在挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为新蔚来车主提供该品牌赖以成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰SUV ES 8目前零售价约为67,000美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车ET 7将于2022年紧随其后。</blockquote> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.<blockquote>凭借在中国豪华电动汽车市场的良好销售记录，以及与全球公认的特斯拉相当的规格，蔚来没有理由不在海外取得成功。正如前面提到的，蔚来的车辆充满电后的行驶里程可达435英里，这使得它成为潜在的欧美车主的理想选择，他们正在寻找一个可靠的伴侣来陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的首选相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车不断增长的需求。</blockquote> NIO’s Historical Performance<blockquote>蔚来的历史表现</blockquote> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.<blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销量持续增长，但由于流动性问题，蔚来股价跌至2美元以下的历史低点。2020年年中，中国合肥市政府向蔚来注资70亿元人民币（约合10亿美元）。该安排导致创建了“蔚来中国”，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来90.36%的所有权权益，而“合肥战略投资者”联合体持有馀下9.64%。这种合作关系成为了公司的生命线；额外资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显着改善，这反映在其强劲的财务业绩和2020年夏季股价的上涨趋势上。截至2020年第二季度末，蔚来总收入环比增长171%，股价平均反弹近20%。该公司股价在2020年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均为15.40美元，并继续攀升至第四季度平均38.70美元。截至2021年3月31日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为50.97美元，并在2月份达到近62美元的峰值，是2018年IPO价格的10倍多。该公司目前的市值超过670亿美元，超过了其在纽约证券交易所上市时仅10亿美元的市值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.<blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在2月底成长型股票遭到抛售之前见顶以来，蔚来的基本面也只显示出稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级增长，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，几乎占2020年总交付量的50%。该公司继续展现出乐观的前景，4月份交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长超过125%。得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，蔚来在2021年第一季度的经营活动中也保持了正现金流，这些措施将其毛利率提高至19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者的毛利率相当。第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量将接近30万辆，这意味着总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）（每股18.60美元）。我们最近与合资企业“江淮汽车集团”（“江淮汽车”）续签的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的汽车销售预测，该协议将目前100,000辆的年产能提高到240,000辆；正在建设中的“NeoPark”亦预期将新增100万台的年产能，这进一步支持了我们对蔚来继续致力于发展其业务的积极展望。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为16.43倍，年收入约为420亿美元（第一季度收入年化为103.89亿美元），将相同比例应用于蔚来预测的2025财年总收入预计将产生市盈率8.7倍，股价超过160美元。</blockquote> NIO vs. LI and XPEV<blockquote>蔚来vs.LI和XPEV</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Finviz<blockquote>资料来源：Finviz</blockquote> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.<blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与其国内同行进行了比较，以衡量蔚来股价突破100美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.<blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于LI和XPEV，前者的市盈率应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到18.1倍（XPEV的中点），也将推动该公司当前股价上涨至51.50美元，基于上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日），这意味着22%的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来2025财年收入1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）或每股18.60美元的预测，即使是18.1倍的一半也足以使蔚来的股价在2025年突破160美元；我们认为，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为届时从运营中获得的现金和技术进步将使其走上电动汽车行业持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到2030年及以后，届时该品牌的4级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote> Business Risks and Challenges<blockquote>业务风险及挑战</blockquote> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.<blockquote>正如我在之前关于蔚来的一篇文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“HFCA法案”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB的检查要求；否则，上述事务所审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前由普华永道中天会计师事务所（LLP）进行审计，该事务所被列入PCAOB的拒绝访问名单。如果中国当局和PCAOB不能很快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会成为投资者的威慑因素，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.<blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是持续的全球芯片供应短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的每一项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距越来越大。蔚来也不例外地受到持续的芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，交付量逐月增加就证明了这一点；在蔚来4月份最新的交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长125%。</blockquote> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.<blockquote>近年来，电动汽车行业的竞争也愈演愈烈。在过去十年中，由于对气候变化的日益担忧以及传统汽油燃料汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的进入门槛也大幅降低；随着初始投资变得比2003年特斯拉更加合理，新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动的汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并保持在汽车行业内的竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期保持成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（此处进一步分析）。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.<blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌影响力，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合其生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略的能力，蔚来正在有效缩小与特斯拉在全球电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价中，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，这使其成为值得选择的股票。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148130971","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.\nThe company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.\nWe believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.\n\nPhoto by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nDespite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).\nFounded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.\nA Trailblazer in Innovative Technology\nSource:ir.nio.com\nNIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the 181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are more than 226 battery swapping stations across China, with more on the way following a recent strategic partnership agreement between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.\nIn addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.\nTo further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently partnered with Mobileye – an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.\nNIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).\nSource: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nGlobal Expansion\nSource: ir.nio.com\nAnother catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the ES8, which currently retails at a starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the ET7, to follow in 2022.\nWith a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.\nNIO’s Historical Performance\nJust a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a capital injection of RMB 7 billion (approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.\nSource: Author, with data from ir.nio.com\nNIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the recently renewed manufacturing agreement with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.\nNIO vs. LI and XPEV\nSource: Finviz\nWe have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.\nConsidering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.\nBusiness Risks and Challenges\nAs mentioned in one of my previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.\nAnother imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.\nCompetition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.\nConclusion\nNIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":115993120,"gmtCreate":1622945031660,"gmtModify":1634096766270,"author":{"id":"3569409177654344","authorId":"3569409177654344","name":"BeeL","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04fd117193f398e58143bed822f34e05","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3569409177654344","authorIdStr":"3569409177654344"},"htmlText":"If not “If”, so “So When Leh”","listText":"If not “If”, so “So When Leh”","text":"If not “If”, so “So When Leh”","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115993120","repostId":1148130971,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148130971","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622866524,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148130971?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-05 12:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148130971","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fas","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li> <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li> <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\">Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>蔚来的股价在过去一年飙升了816%以上，在3月初的成长股抛售之前，在2月初达到了近62美元的峰值。</li><li>该公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪日益高涨，预计将提振该公司的估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来股价到2025年将飙升至160美元以上。</li></ul>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images新闻来自Getty Images</blockquote> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).<blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来已经在电动汽车行业狂热投资者中获得了国际关注。距离蔚来于2018年中期首次交付仅过去了短短三年，但许多人已经想知道其股价是否能达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的股价超过每股600美元，市值超过6000亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来有潜力在2025年之前突破每股100美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近60美元，根据上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日）计算，该目标价有超过35%的上涨潜力。</blockquote> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.<blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今在华销售和交付汽车已超过10万辆。该公司拥有一支由五款零排放、全电池驱动的车型组成的车队，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将他们的全球扩张计划变成了现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到100美元不再是“如果”的问题，而是“何时”的问题。</blockquote> A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology<blockquote>创新技术的开拓者</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\">Source:ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.<blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池交换技术“Power Swap”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车行驶里程通常有限的问题。与加油站类似，换电是一个电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池使蔚来汽车能够行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车平均行驶里程181英里的两倍多。蔚来车主可以选择订阅“电池即服务”（“BaaS”）套餐，这是一项按月订阅的服务，为蔚来车主根据个人需求提供电池升级的灵活选择。该公司目前提供标准75 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达310英里，增强型100 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达435英里；两者都可供蔚来车主在BaaS下按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个电池交换站，继蔚来与中石化最近达成战略合作协议后，更多的电池交换站正在建设中。蔚来的车辆还与当地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国164个城市提供的1,140个汽车充电站兼容，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.<blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以在更广泛的电动汽车和技术领域保持竞争力。自2016年以来，蔚来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，并于2018年在北京的公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对未来客运的承诺也通过EVE的开发得到了证明，EVE是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的NOMI AI（世界上第一个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.<blockquote>为了进一步推动自动驾驶技术的进步，蔚来最近与Mobileye合作，Mobileye是一家英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司，以开发“EyeQ芯片”而闻名，目前已被超过27家汽车制造商用于其辅助驾驶技术——开发和商业化不需要人机交互的驾驶自动化（即“4级”自动驾驶）。他们的合作预计将加速蔚来推出“自动驾驶即服务”（“ADaaS”）套餐，这是他们的自动驾驶技术“蔚来自动驾驶”（“NAD”）的每月订阅。然而，与特斯拉的“全自动驾驶”套件类似，预计将于2022年推出的NAD技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实使蔚来在通往4级自动驾驶的竞赛中与行业领导者特斯拉相提并论。蔚来车主将可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。如今上路的蔚来汽车超过10.2万辆，新的订阅套餐预计将产生8.4亿元人民币（1.32亿美元）的年销售额增量；假设大多数现有蔚来车主注册的平均车辆寿命为12年，该服务推出后的额外收入流价值约为100亿元人民币（16亿美元）。</blockquote> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).<blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的不断发展预计将在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求最大的细分市场之一，估计价值为1.6万亿美元。该市场6%的份额将为蔚来现有670亿美元的市值增加至少1000亿美元的估值，使其每股价值超过100美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的全电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长其海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占据上述市场6%以上的份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股股价超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量约为30万辆，总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\">Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（蔚来_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</blockquote> Global Expansion<blockquote>全球扩张</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">Source: ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.<blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破100美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直公开表示其全球扩张的意图，特别是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设首个海外销售及服务中心。该品牌在挪威的足迹将于2022年进一步扩大，将在Bergen、Stavanger、Trondheim和Kristiansand开设四家蔚来商店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将在欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是在挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为新蔚来车主提供该品牌赖以成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰SUV ES 8目前零售价约为67,000美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车ET 7将于2022年紧随其后。</blockquote> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.<blockquote>凭借在中国豪华电动汽车市场的良好销售记录，以及与全球公认的特斯拉相当的规格，蔚来没有理由不在海外取得成功。正如前面提到的，蔚来的车辆充满电后的行驶里程可达435英里，这使得它成为潜在的欧美车主的理想选择，他们正在寻找一个可靠的伴侣来陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的首选相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车不断增长的需求。</blockquote> NIO’s Historical Performance<blockquote>蔚来的历史表现</blockquote> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.<blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销量持续增长，但由于流动性问题，蔚来股价跌至2美元以下的历史低点。2020年年中，中国合肥市政府向蔚来注资70亿元人民币（约合10亿美元）。该安排导致创建了“蔚来中国”，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来90.36%的所有权权益，而“合肥战略投资者”联合体持有馀下9.64%。这种合作关系成为了公司的生命线；额外资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显着改善，这反映在其强劲的财务业绩和2020年夏季股价的上涨趋势上。截至2020年第二季度末，蔚来总收入环比增长171%，股价平均反弹近20%。该公司股价在2020年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均为15.40美元，并继续攀升至第四季度平均38.70美元。截至2021年3月31日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为50.97美元，并在2月份达到近62美元的峰值，是2018年IPO价格的10倍多。该公司目前的市值超过670亿美元，超过了其在纽约证券交易所上市时仅10亿美元的市值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.<blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在2月底成长型股票遭到抛售之前见顶以来，蔚来的基本面也只显示出稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级增长，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，几乎占2020年总交付量的50%。该公司继续展现出乐观的前景，4月份交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长超过125%。得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，蔚来在2021年第一季度的经营活动中也保持了正现金流，这些措施将其毛利率提高至19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者的毛利率相当。第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量将接近30万辆，这意味着总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）（每股18.60美元）。我们最近与合资企业“江淮汽车集团”（“江淮汽车”）续签的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的汽车销售预测，该协议将目前100,000辆的年产能提高到240,000辆；正在建设中的“NeoPark”亦预期将新增100万台的年产能，这进一步支持了我们对蔚来继续致力于发展其业务的积极展望。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为16.43倍，年收入约为420亿美元（第一季度收入年化为103.89亿美元），将相同比例应用于蔚来预测的2025财年总收入预计将产生市盈率8.7倍，股价超过160美元。</blockquote> NIO vs. LI and XPEV<blockquote>蔚来vs.LI和XPEV</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Finviz<blockquote>资料来源：Finviz</blockquote> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.<blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与其国内同行进行了比较，以衡量蔚来股价突破100美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.<blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于LI和XPEV，前者的市盈率应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到18.1倍（XPEV的中点），也将推动该公司当前股价上涨至51.50美元，基于上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日），这意味着22%的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来2025财年收入1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）或每股18.60美元的预测，即使是18.1倍的一半也足以使蔚来的股价在2025年突破160美元；我们认为，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为届时从运营中获得的现金和技术进步将使其走上电动汽车行业持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到2030年及以后，届时该品牌的4级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote> Business Risks and Challenges<blockquote>业务风险及挑战</blockquote> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.<blockquote>正如我在之前关于蔚来的一篇文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“HFCA法案”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB的检查要求；否则，上述事务所审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前由普华永道中天会计师事务所（LLP）进行审计，该事务所被列入PCAOB的拒绝访问名单。如果中国当局和PCAOB不能很快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会成为投资者的威慑因素，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.<blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是持续的全球芯片供应短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的每一项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距越来越大。蔚来也不例外地受到持续的芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，交付量逐月增加就证明了这一点；在蔚来4月份最新的交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长125%。</blockquote> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.<blockquote>近年来，电动汽车行业的竞争也愈演愈烈。在过去十年中，由于对气候变化的日益担忧以及传统汽油燃料汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的进入门槛也大幅降低；随着初始投资变得比2003年特斯拉更加合理，新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动的汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并保持在汽车行业内的竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期保持成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（此处进一步分析）。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.<blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌影响力，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合其生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略的能力，蔚来正在有效缩小与特斯拉在全球电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价中，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，这使其成为值得选择的股票。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-06-05 12:15\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li> <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li> <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\">Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>蔚来的股价在过去一年飙升了816%以上，在3月初的成长股抛售之前，在2月初达到了近62美元的峰值。</li><li>该公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪日益高涨，预计将提振该公司的估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来股价到2025年将飙升至160美元以上。</li></ul>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images新闻来自Getty Images</blockquote> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).<blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来已经在电动汽车行业狂热投资者中获得了国际关注。距离蔚来于2018年中期首次交付仅过去了短短三年，但许多人已经想知道其股价是否能达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的股价超过每股600美元，市值超过6000亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来有潜力在2025年之前突破每股100美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近60美元，根据上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日）计算，该目标价有超过35%的上涨潜力。</blockquote> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.<blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今在华销售和交付汽车已超过10万辆。该公司拥有一支由五款零排放、全电池驱动的车型组成的车队，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将他们的全球扩张计划变成了现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到100美元不再是“如果”的问题，而是“何时”的问题。</blockquote> A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology<blockquote>创新技术的开拓者</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\">Source:ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.<blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池交换技术“Power Swap”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车行驶里程通常有限的问题。与加油站类似，换电是一个电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池使蔚来汽车能够行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车平均行驶里程181英里的两倍多。蔚来车主可以选择订阅“电池即服务”（“BaaS”）套餐，这是一项按月订阅的服务，为蔚来车主根据个人需求提供电池升级的灵活选择。该公司目前提供标准75 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达310英里，增强型100 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达435英里；两者都可供蔚来车主在BaaS下按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个电池交换站，继蔚来与中石化最近达成战略合作协议后，更多的电池交换站正在建设中。蔚来的车辆还与当地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国164个城市提供的1,140个汽车充电站兼容，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.<blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以在更广泛的电动汽车和技术领域保持竞争力。自2016年以来，蔚来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，并于2018年在北京的公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对未来客运的承诺也通过EVE的开发得到了证明，EVE是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的NOMI AI（世界上第一个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.<blockquote>为了进一步推动自动驾驶技术的进步，蔚来最近与Mobileye合作，Mobileye是一家英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司，以开发“EyeQ芯片”而闻名，目前已被超过27家汽车制造商用于其辅助驾驶技术——开发和商业化不需要人机交互的驾驶自动化（即“4级”自动驾驶）。他们的合作预计将加速蔚来推出“自动驾驶即服务”（“ADaaS”）套餐，这是他们的自动驾驶技术“蔚来自动驾驶”（“NAD”）的每月订阅。然而，与特斯拉的“全自动驾驶”套件类似，预计将于2022年推出的NAD技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实使蔚来在通往4级自动驾驶的竞赛中与行业领导者特斯拉相提并论。蔚来车主将可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。如今上路的蔚来汽车超过10.2万辆，新的订阅套餐预计将产生8.4亿元人民币（1.32亿美元）的年销售额增量；假设大多数现有蔚来车主注册的平均车辆寿命为12年，该服务推出后的额外收入流价值约为100亿元人民币（16亿美元）。</blockquote> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).<blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的不断发展预计将在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求最大的细分市场之一，估计价值为1.6万亿美元。该市场6%的份额将为蔚来现有670亿美元的市值增加至少1000亿美元的估值，使其每股价值超过100美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的全电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长其海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占据上述市场6%以上的份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股股价超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量约为30万辆，总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\">Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（蔚来_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</blockquote> Global Expansion<blockquote>全球扩张</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">Source: ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.<blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破100美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直公开表示其全球扩张的意图，特别是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设首个海外销售及服务中心。该品牌在挪威的足迹将于2022年进一步扩大，将在Bergen、Stavanger、Trondheim和Kristiansand开设四家蔚来商店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将在欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是在挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为新蔚来车主提供该品牌赖以成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰SUV ES 8目前零售价约为67,000美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车ET 7将于2022年紧随其后。</blockquote> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.<blockquote>凭借在中国豪华电动汽车市场的良好销售记录，以及与全球公认的特斯拉相当的规格，蔚来没有理由不在海外取得成功。正如前面提到的，蔚来的车辆充满电后的行驶里程可达435英里，这使得它成为潜在的欧美车主的理想选择，他们正在寻找一个可靠的伴侣来陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的首选相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车不断增长的需求。</blockquote> NIO’s Historical Performance<blockquote>蔚来的历史表现</blockquote> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.<blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销量持续增长，但由于流动性问题，蔚来股价跌至2美元以下的历史低点。2020年年中，中国合肥市政府向蔚来注资70亿元人民币（约合10亿美元）。该安排导致创建了“蔚来中国”，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来90.36%的所有权权益，而“合肥战略投资者”联合体持有馀下9.64%。这种合作关系成为了公司的生命线；额外资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显着改善，这反映在其强劲的财务业绩和2020年夏季股价的上涨趋势上。截至2020年第二季度末，蔚来总收入环比增长171%，股价平均反弹近20%。该公司股价在2020年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均为15.40美元，并继续攀升至第四季度平均38.70美元。截至2021年3月31日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为50.97美元，并在2月份达到近62美元的峰值，是2018年IPO价格的10倍多。该公司目前的市值超过670亿美元，超过了其在纽约证券交易所上市时仅10亿美元的市值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.<blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在2月底成长型股票遭到抛售之前见顶以来，蔚来的基本面也只显示出稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级增长，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，几乎占2020年总交付量的50%。该公司继续展现出乐观的前景，4月份交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长超过125%。得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，蔚来在2021年第一季度的经营活动中也保持了正现金流，这些措施将其毛利率提高至19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者的毛利率相当。第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量将接近30万辆，这意味着总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）（每股18.60美元）。我们最近与合资企业“江淮汽车集团”（“江淮汽车”）续签的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的汽车销售预测，该协议将目前100,000辆的年产能提高到240,000辆；正在建设中的“NeoPark”亦预期将新增100万台的年产能，这进一步支持了我们对蔚来继续致力于发展其业务的积极展望。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为16.43倍，年收入约为420亿美元（第一季度收入年化为103.89亿美元），将相同比例应用于蔚来预测的2025财年总收入预计将产生市盈率8.7倍，股价超过160美元。</blockquote> NIO vs. LI and XPEV<blockquote>蔚来vs.LI和XPEV</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Finviz<blockquote>资料来源：Finviz</blockquote> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.<blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与其国内同行进行了比较，以衡量蔚来股价突破100美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.<blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于LI和XPEV，前者的市盈率应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到18.1倍（XPEV的中点），也将推动该公司当前股价上涨至51.50美元，基于上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日），这意味着22%的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来2025财年收入1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）或每股18.60美元的预测，即使是18.1倍的一半也足以使蔚来的股价在2025年突破160美元；我们认为，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为届时从运营中获得的现金和技术进步将使其走上电动汽车行业持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到2030年及以后，届时该品牌的4级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote> Business Risks and Challenges<blockquote>业务风险及挑战</blockquote> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.<blockquote>正如我在之前关于蔚来的一篇文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“HFCA法案”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB的检查要求；否则，上述事务所审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前由普华永道中天会计师事务所（LLP）进行审计，该事务所被列入PCAOB的拒绝访问名单。如果中国当局和PCAOB不能很快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会成为投资者的威慑因素，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.<blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是持续的全球芯片供应短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的每一项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距越来越大。蔚来也不例外地受到持续的芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，交付量逐月增加就证明了这一点；在蔚来4月份最新的交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长125%。</blockquote> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.<blockquote>近年来，电动汽车行业的竞争也愈演愈烈。在过去十年中，由于对气候变化的日益担忧以及传统汽油燃料汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的进入门槛也大幅降低；随着初始投资变得比2003年特斯拉更加合理，新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动的汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并保持在汽车行业内的竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期保持成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（此处进一步分析）。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.<blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌影响力，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合其生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略的能力，蔚来正在有效缩小与特斯拉在全球电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价中，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，这使其成为值得选择的股票。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148130971","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.\nThe company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.\nWe believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.\n\nPhoto by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nDespite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).\nFounded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.\nA Trailblazer in Innovative Technology\nSource:ir.nio.com\nNIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the 181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are more than 226 battery swapping stations across China, with more on the way following a recent strategic partnership agreement between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.\nIn addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.\nTo further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently partnered with Mobileye – an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.\nNIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).\nSource: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nGlobal Expansion\nSource: ir.nio.com\nAnother catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the ES8, which currently retails at a starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the ET7, to follow in 2022.\nWith a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.\nNIO’s Historical Performance\nJust a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a capital injection of RMB 7 billion (approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.\nSource: Author, with data from ir.nio.com\nNIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the recently renewed manufacturing agreement with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.\nNIO vs. LI and XPEV\nSource: Finviz\nWe have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.\nConsidering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.\nBusiness Risks and Challenges\nAs mentioned in one of my previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.\nAnother imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.\nCompetition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.\nConclusion\nNIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4621682,"gmtCreate":1623104180915,"gmtModify":1635333239763,"authorId":3569493945217915,"author":{"id":3569493945217915,"idStr":"3569493945217915","authorId":3569493945217915,"name":"TC88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea49250ec06f06d5c0a8d65dbd1900ef","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":115993120,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"hope so","text":"hope so","html":"hope so"},{"id":4639190,"gmtCreate":1623194406575,"gmtModify":1635331724827,"authorId":3569409177654344,"author":{"id":3569409177654344,"idStr":"3569409177654344","authorId":3569409177654344,"name":"BeeL","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04fd117193f398e58143bed822f34e05","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":115993120,"type":1,"supId":4621682,"prevId":0,"content":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","html":"👍🏻"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":115048357,"gmtCreate":1622943610679,"gmtModify":1634096787440,"author":{"id":"3567295126071659","authorId":"3567295126071659","name":"RonnieSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20c3815bb0969cd4ea7a26f56e53df31","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3567295126071659","authorIdStr":"3567295126071659"},"htmlText":"Possible. Have to wait for 2022","listText":"Possible. Have to wait for 2022","text":"Possible. Have to wait for 2022","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115048357","repostId":1148130971,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148130971","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622866524,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148130971?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-05 12:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148130971","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fas","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li> <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li> <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\">Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>蔚来的股价在过去一年飙升了816%以上，在3月初的成长股抛售之前，在2月初达到了近62美元的峰值。</li><li>该公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪日益高涨，预计将提振该公司的估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来股价到2025年将飙升至160美元以上。</li></ul>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images新闻来自Getty Images</blockquote> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).<blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来已经在电动汽车行业狂热投资者中获得了国际关注。距离蔚来于2018年中期首次交付仅过去了短短三年，但许多人已经想知道其股价是否能达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的股价超过每股600美元，市值超过6000亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来有潜力在2025年之前突破每股100美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近60美元，根据上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日）计算，该目标价有超过35%的上涨潜力。</blockquote> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.<blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今在华销售和交付汽车已超过10万辆。该公司拥有一支由五款零排放、全电池驱动的车型组成的车队，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将他们的全球扩张计划变成了现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到100美元不再是“如果”的问题，而是“何时”的问题。</blockquote> A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology<blockquote>创新技术的开拓者</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\">Source:ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.<blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池交换技术“Power Swap”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车行驶里程通常有限的问题。与加油站类似，换电是一个电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池使蔚来汽车能够行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车平均行驶里程181英里的两倍多。蔚来车主可以选择订阅“电池即服务”（“BaaS”）套餐，这是一项按月订阅的服务，为蔚来车主根据个人需求提供电池升级的灵活选择。该公司目前提供标准75 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达310英里，增强型100 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达435英里；两者都可供蔚来车主在BaaS下按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个电池交换站，继蔚来与中石化最近达成战略合作协议后，更多的电池交换站正在建设中。蔚来的车辆还与当地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国164个城市提供的1,140个汽车充电站兼容，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.<blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以在更广泛的电动汽车和技术领域保持竞争力。自2016年以来，蔚来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，并于2018年在北京的公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对未来客运的承诺也通过EVE的开发得到了证明，EVE是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的NOMI AI（世界上第一个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.<blockquote>为了进一步推动自动驾驶技术的进步，蔚来最近与Mobileye合作，Mobileye是一家英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司，以开发“EyeQ芯片”而闻名，目前已被超过27家汽车制造商用于其辅助驾驶技术——开发和商业化不需要人机交互的驾驶自动化（即“4级”自动驾驶）。他们的合作预计将加速蔚来推出“自动驾驶即服务”（“ADaaS”）套餐，这是他们的自动驾驶技术“蔚来自动驾驶”（“NAD”）的每月订阅。然而，与特斯拉的“全自动驾驶”套件类似，预计将于2022年推出的NAD技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实使蔚来在通往4级自动驾驶的竞赛中与行业领导者特斯拉相提并论。蔚来车主将可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。如今上路的蔚来汽车超过10.2万辆，新的订阅套餐预计将产生8.4亿元人民币（1.32亿美元）的年销售额增量；假设大多数现有蔚来车主注册的平均车辆寿命为12年，该服务推出后的额外收入流价值约为100亿元人民币（16亿美元）。</blockquote> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).<blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的不断发展预计将在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求最大的细分市场之一，估计价值为1.6万亿美元。该市场6%的份额将为蔚来现有670亿美元的市值增加至少1000亿美元的估值，使其每股价值超过100美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的全电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长其海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占据上述市场6%以上的份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股股价超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量约为30万辆，总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\">Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（蔚来_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</blockquote> Global Expansion<blockquote>全球扩张</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">Source: ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.<blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破100美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直公开表示其全球扩张的意图，特别是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设首个海外销售及服务中心。该品牌在挪威的足迹将于2022年进一步扩大，将在Bergen、Stavanger、Trondheim和Kristiansand开设四家蔚来商店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将在欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是在挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为新蔚来车主提供该品牌赖以成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰SUV ES 8目前零售价约为67,000美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车ET 7将于2022年紧随其后。</blockquote> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.<blockquote>凭借在中国豪华电动汽车市场的良好销售记录，以及与全球公认的特斯拉相当的规格，蔚来没有理由不在海外取得成功。正如前面提到的，蔚来的车辆充满电后的行驶里程可达435英里，这使得它成为潜在的欧美车主的理想选择，他们正在寻找一个可靠的伴侣来陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的首选相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车不断增长的需求。</blockquote> NIO’s Historical Performance<blockquote>蔚来的历史表现</blockquote> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.<blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销量持续增长，但由于流动性问题，蔚来股价跌至2美元以下的历史低点。2020年年中，中国合肥市政府向蔚来注资70亿元人民币（约合10亿美元）。该安排导致创建了“蔚来中国”，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来90.36%的所有权权益，而“合肥战略投资者”联合体持有馀下9.64%。这种合作关系成为了公司的生命线；额外资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显着改善，这反映在其强劲的财务业绩和2020年夏季股价的上涨趋势上。截至2020年第二季度末，蔚来总收入环比增长171%，股价平均反弹近20%。该公司股价在2020年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均为15.40美元，并继续攀升至第四季度平均38.70美元。截至2021年3月31日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为50.97美元，并在2月份达到近62美元的峰值，是2018年IPO价格的10倍多。该公司目前的市值超过670亿美元，超过了其在纽约证券交易所上市时仅10亿美元的市值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.<blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在2月底成长型股票遭到抛售之前见顶以来，蔚来的基本面也只显示出稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级增长，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，几乎占2020年总交付量的50%。该公司继续展现出乐观的前景，4月份交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长超过125%。得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，蔚来在2021年第一季度的经营活动中也保持了正现金流，这些措施将其毛利率提高至19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者的毛利率相当。第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量将接近30万辆，这意味着总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）（每股18.60美元）。我们最近与合资企业“江淮汽车集团”（“江淮汽车”）续签的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的汽车销售预测，该协议将目前100,000辆的年产能提高到240,000辆；正在建设中的“NeoPark”亦预期将新增100万台的年产能，这进一步支持了我们对蔚来继续致力于发展其业务的积极展望。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为16.43倍，年收入约为420亿美元（第一季度收入年化为103.89亿美元），将相同比例应用于蔚来预测的2025财年总收入预计将产生市盈率8.7倍，股价超过160美元。</blockquote> NIO vs. LI and XPEV<blockquote>蔚来vs.LI和XPEV</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Finviz<blockquote>资料来源：Finviz</blockquote> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.<blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与其国内同行进行了比较，以衡量蔚来股价突破100美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.<blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于LI和XPEV，前者的市盈率应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到18.1倍（XPEV的中点），也将推动该公司当前股价上涨至51.50美元，基于上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日），这意味着22%的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来2025财年收入1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）或每股18.60美元的预测，即使是18.1倍的一半也足以使蔚来的股价在2025年突破160美元；我们认为，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为届时从运营中获得的现金和技术进步将使其走上电动汽车行业持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到2030年及以后，届时该品牌的4级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote> Business Risks and Challenges<blockquote>业务风险及挑战</blockquote> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.<blockquote>正如我在之前关于蔚来的一篇文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“HFCA法案”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB的检查要求；否则，上述事务所审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前由普华永道中天会计师事务所（LLP）进行审计，该事务所被列入PCAOB的拒绝访问名单。如果中国当局和PCAOB不能很快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会成为投资者的威慑因素，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.<blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是持续的全球芯片供应短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的每一项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距越来越大。蔚来也不例外地受到持续的芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，交付量逐月增加就证明了这一点；在蔚来4月份最新的交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长125%。</blockquote> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.<blockquote>近年来，电动汽车行业的竞争也愈演愈烈。在过去十年中，由于对气候变化的日益担忧以及传统汽油燃料汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的进入门槛也大幅降低；随着初始投资变得比2003年特斯拉更加合理，新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动的汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并保持在汽车行业内的竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期保持成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（此处进一步分析）。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.<blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌影响力，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合其生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略的能力，蔚来正在有效缩小与特斯拉在全球电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价中，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，这使其成为值得选择的股票。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan NIO Stock Reach $100? We Think It's A Matter Of 'When' Not 'If'<blockquote>蔚来股价能达到100美元吗？我们认为这是“何时”的问题，而不是“如果”的问题</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-06-05 12:15\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>NIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.</li> <li>The company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.</li> <li>We believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b31b2f189fa181e941126674e0b4c0b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\">Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>蔚来的股价在过去一年飙升了816%以上，在3月初的成长股抛售之前，在2月初达到了近62美元的峰值。</li><li>该公司的创新方法和海外扩张战略，加上全球电气化和自动化市场情绪日益高涨，预计将提振该公司的估值。</li><li>我们相信，随着自动驾驶成为现实，全球电动汽车销量持续增长，蔚来股价到2025年将飙升至160美元以上。</li></ul>摄影：Drew Angerer/Getty Images新闻来自Getty Images</blockquote> Despite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a&nbsp;price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).<blockquote>尽管蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）是一个中国本土电动汽车（“EV”）品牌，最近才开始向欧洲进行海外扩张，但近年来已经在电动汽车行业狂热投资者中获得了国际关注。距离蔚来于2018年中期首次交付仅过去了短短三年，但许多人已经想知道其股价是否能达到与行业领导者特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）类似的高度。尽管考虑到特斯拉目前的股价超过每股600美元，市值超过6000亿美元，这有点牵强，但我们确实相信蔚来有潜力在2025年之前突破每股100美元。就连华尔街分析师也对该公司的未来保持乐观，他们将目标价定为接近60美元，根据上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日）计算，该目标价有超过35%的上涨潜力。</blockquote> Founded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.<blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，迄今在华销售和交付汽车已超过10万辆。该公司拥有一支由五款零排放、全电池驱动的车型组成的车队，从跑车到豪华轿车和全尺寸SUV。除了汽车之外，蔚来还因其在创新技术方面取得的重大进展而闻名，包括最先进的电池解决方案、人工智能和自动驾驶。该公司最近还将他们的全球扩张计划变成了现实，第一家海外蔚来商店将于2021年第三季度在挪威奥斯陆开业。我们认为，股价达到100美元不再是“如果”的问题，而是“何时”的问题。</blockquote> A Trailblazer in Innovative Technology<blockquote>创新技术的开拓者</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16d9fd877602d5604bc3a69593badfdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\">Source:ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the&nbsp;181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles&nbsp;currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are&nbsp;more than 226 battery swapping stations&nbsp;across China, with more on the way following a recent&nbsp;strategic partnership agreement&nbsp;between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.<blockquote>蔚来一直表现出令人不安的创新者的特征。该品牌因其在电池交换技术“Power Swap”方面的突破而广为人知，该技术为蔚来车主提供了一种快速便捷的解决方案，以解决电动汽车行驶里程通常有限的问题。与加油站类似，换电是一个电池交换站，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池换成充满电的电池；充满电的电池使蔚来汽车能够行驶435英里，是目前市场上电动汽车平均行驶里程181英里的两倍多。蔚来车主可以选择订阅“电池即服务”（“BaaS”）套餐，这是一项按月订阅的服务，为蔚来车主根据个人需求提供电池升级的灵活选择。该公司目前提供标准75 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达310英里，增强型100 kWh电池，充满电后续航里程可达435英里；两者都可供蔚来车主在BaaS下按月选择。迄今为止，全国已有超过226个电池交换站，继蔚来与中石化最近达成战略合作协议后，更多的电池交换站正在建设中。蔚来的车辆还与当地竞争对手小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）在中国164个城市提供的1,140个汽车充电站兼容，这进一步增强了其为蔚来车主提供的现有充电基础设施网络。</blockquote> In addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of&nbsp;EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s&nbsp;NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.<blockquote>除了长期维持蔚来电动汽车所需的发达基础设施网络外，该公司还一直在努力完善其自动驾驶和人工智能技术，以在更广泛的电动汽车和技术领域保持竞争力。自2016年以来，蔚来一直在对其自动驾驶系统进行测试，并于2018年在北京的公共道路上进行了首次测试。该公司对未来客运的承诺也通过EVE的开发得到了证明，EVE是该品牌的自动驾驶概念车，由蔚来的NOMI AI（世界上第一个车载人工智能）提供豪华、舒适和安全的体验。</blockquote> To further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently&nbsp;partnered with Mobileye&nbsp;– an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.<blockquote>为了进一步推动自动驾驶技术的进步，蔚来最近与Mobileye合作，Mobileye是一家英特尔旗下（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）公司，以开发“EyeQ芯片”而闻名，目前已被超过27家汽车制造商用于其辅助驾驶技术——开发和商业化不需要人机交互的驾驶自动化（即“4级”自动驾驶）。他们的合作预计将加速蔚来推出“自动驾驶即服务”（“ADaaS”）套餐，这是他们的自动驾驶技术“蔚来自动驾驶”（“NAD”）的每月订阅。然而，与特斯拉的“全自动驾驶”套件类似，预计将于2022年推出的NAD技术尚未使蔚来汽车能够在没有人工干预的情况下驾驶，但它确实使蔚来在通往4级自动驾驶的竞赛中与行业领导者特斯拉相提并论。蔚来车主将可以选择订阅ADaaS，每月订阅费为人民币680元。如今上路的蔚来汽车超过10.2万辆，新的订阅套餐预计将产生8.4亿元人民币（1.32亿美元）的年销售额增量；假设大多数现有蔚来车主注册的平均车辆寿命为12年，该服务推出后的额外收入流价值约为100亿元人民币（16亿美元）。</blockquote> NIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an&nbsp;estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).<blockquote>蔚来在自动驾驶技术方面的不断发展预计将在不久的将来使公司及其股东受益匪浅。到2025年，全球自动驾驶汽车市场将成为增长最快、需求最大的细分市场之一，估计价值为1.6万亿美元。该市场6%的份额将为蔚来现有670亿美元的市值增加至少1000亿美元的估值，使其每股价值超过100美元。考虑到蔚来是目前极少数在自动驾驶领域取得切实成果的全电动汽车制造商之一，并且正在积极增长其海外销量，我们有信心该公司有能力占据上述市场6%以上的份额，并轻松实现到2025年每股股价超过100美元。结合全球消费者偏好向电气化和自动化的转变，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量约为30万辆，总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c800a04e6df92802f6893d214eecdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\">Source: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部预测（蔚来_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</blockquote> Global Expansion<blockquote>全球扩张</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537449f8f7ee9c736b48c1776cbb7259\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"249\">Source: ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：ir.nio.com</blockquote> Another catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first&nbsp;overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway&nbsp;in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the&nbsp;ES8, which currently retails at a&nbsp;starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the&nbsp;ET7, to follow in 2022.<blockquote>推动蔚来股价突破100美元的另一个催化剂是他们正在进行的海外扩张努力。蔚来一直公开表示其全球扩张的意图，特别是在美国和欧洲，作为其成为行业领导者计划的一部分。蔚来将于9月在挪威奥斯陆开设首个海外销售及服务中心。该品牌在挪威的足迹将于2022年进一步扩大，将在Bergen、Stavanger、Trondheim和Kristiansand开设四家蔚来商店。除了直销和服务中心外，蔚来还将在欧洲推出完整的充电地图，首先是在挪威的四个蔚来换电站，为新蔚来车主提供该品牌赖以成功的便利和续航里程。蔚来的旗舰SUV ES 8目前零售价约为67,000美元，将是首款引入欧洲市场的车型，该品牌最新的全尺寸轿车ET 7将于2022年紧随其后。</blockquote> With a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.<blockquote>凭借在中国豪华电动汽车市场的良好销售记录，以及与全球公认的特斯拉相当的规格，蔚来没有理由不在海外取得成功。正如前面提到的，蔚来的车辆充满电后的行驶里程可达435英里，这使得它成为潜在的欧美车主的理想选择，他们正在寻找一个可靠的伴侣来陪伴他们进行日常通勤和长途旅行。蔚来的外观和内饰设计也是现代、豪华的，可与欧洲和北美人口的首选相媲美。结合多样化的产品线和价格范围，蔚来有能力满足全球范围内对电动汽车不断增长的需求。</blockquote> NIO’s Historical Performance<blockquote>蔚来的历史表现</blockquote> Just a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a&nbsp;capital injection of RMB 7 billion&nbsp;(approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its&nbsp;IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.<blockquote>就在一年多前，尽管汽车销量持续增长，但由于流动性问题，蔚来股价跌至2美元以下的历史低点。2020年年中，中国合肥市政府向蔚来注资70亿元人民币（约合10亿美元）。该安排导致创建了“蔚来中国”，作为持有蔚来所有核心业务和资产的运营实体；蔚来目前持有蔚来90.36%的所有权权益，而“合肥战略投资者”联合体持有馀下9.64%。这种合作关系成为了公司的生命线；额外资本为公司的运营和汽车销售带来了显着改善，这反映在其强劲的财务业绩和2020年夏季股价的上涨趋势上。截至2020年第二季度末，蔚来总收入环比增长171%，股价平均反弹近20%。该公司股价在2020年第三季度上涨了两倍多，平均为15.40美元，并继续攀升至第四季度平均38.70美元。截至2021年3月31日的最新季度末，蔚来的平均股价为50.97美元，并在2月份达到近62美元的峰值，是2018年IPO价格的10倍多。该公司目前的市值超过670亿美元，超过了其在纽约证券交易所上市时仅10亿美元的市值。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a1d7edb18c1762028ba54f617e1982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\">Source: Author, with data from ir.nio.com<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自ir.nio.com</blockquote> NIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the&nbsp;growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the&nbsp;recently renewed manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.<blockquote>自今年早些时候股价在2月底成长型股票遭到抛售之前见顶以来，蔚来的基本面也只显示出稳步改善。2021年的交付量继续呈指数级增长，第一季度交付量超过20,000辆，几乎占2020年总交付量的50%。该公司继续展现出乐观的前景，4月份交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长超过125%。得益于更高的交付量和有效的成本管理措施，蔚来在2021年第一季度的经营活动中也保持了正现金流，这些措施将其毛利率提高至19.5%，与特斯拉等行业领导者的毛利率相当。第一季度毛利率为21%。如上所述，我们预计到2025财年汽车销量将接近30万辆，这意味着总收入约为1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）（每股18.60美元）。我们最近与合资企业“江淮汽车集团”（“江淮汽车”）续签的制造协议进一步证实了我们对2025财年的汽车销售预测，该协议将目前100,000辆的年产能提高到240,000辆；正在建设中的“NeoPark”亦预期将新增100万台的年产能，这进一步支持了我们对蔚来继续致力于发展其业务的积极展望。考虑到行业同行特斯拉目前的市盈率为16.43倍，年收入约为420亿美元（第一季度收入年化为103.89亿美元），将相同比例应用于蔚来预测的2025财年总收入预计将产生市盈率8.7倍，股价超过160美元。</blockquote> NIO vs. LI and XPEV<blockquote>蔚来vs.LI和XPEV</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8fa939f92be448d1f427a6ac4bfb25\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\">Source: Finviz<blockquote>资料来源：Finviz</blockquote> We have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.<blockquote>我们还将蔚来目前的市盈率与其国内同行进行了比较，以衡量蔚来股价突破100美元的时间表。蔚来目前的市盈率约为14.88倍，而国内行业同行理想汽车（纳斯达克：LI）和XPEV目前的市盈率分别为14.46倍和21.31倍。</blockquote> Considering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.<blockquote>考虑到蔚来的技术、收入、全球足迹和现金流都强于LI和XPEV，前者的市盈率应该远高于后两者。即使蔚来的市盈率达到18.1倍（XPEV的中点），也将推动该公司当前股价上涨至51.50美元，基于上次交易股价42.34美元（6月1日），这意味着22%的上涨潜力。根据我们对蔚来2025财年收入1400亿元人民币（220亿美元）或每股18.60美元的预测，即使是18.1倍的一半也足以使蔚来的股价在2025年突破160美元；我们认为，蔚来的交易倍数是可以实现的，因为届时从运营中获得的现金和技术进步将使其走上电动汽车行业持续长期增长的轨道，预计这种增长将持续到2030年及以后，届时该品牌的4级自动驾驶技术开发完成并商业化。</blockquote> Business Risks and Challenges<blockquote>业务风险及挑战</blockquote> As mentioned in one of my&nbsp;previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s&nbsp;denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.<blockquote>正如我在之前关于蔚来的一篇文章中提到的，《外国公司问责法》（“HFCA法案”）仍然是公司股价面临的最重大威胁之一。目前，中国的公共会计师事务所不符合SEC要求的PCAOB检查规则，2020年12月HFCA法案的颁布要求这些公共会计师事务所在颁布之日起三年内遵守PCAOB的检查要求；否则，上述事务所审计的所有上市公司都将面临退市风险。蔚来目前由普华永道中天会计师事务所（LLP）进行审计，该事务所被列入PCAOB的拒绝访问名单。如果中国当局和PCAOB不能很快就进行检查达成协议，从纽约证券交易所退市的潜在威胁可能会成为投资者的威慑因素，并最终导致蔚来股价长期下跌。</blockquote> Another imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.<blockquote>蔚来业务面临的另一个迫在眉睫的挑战是持续的全球芯片供应短缺。随着汽车行业越来越依赖芯片来管理车辆的每一项功能，汽车制造商的需求和芯片制造商的供应之间的差距越来越大。蔚来也不例外地受到持续的芯片供应危机的影响——2021年3月，蔚来停止了江淮蔚来制造工厂的生产活动五个工作日，以调整生产水平。然而，该公司继续有效地应对这种情况，交付量逐月增加就证明了这一点；在蔚来4月份最新的交付更新新闻稿中，该公司继续满足市场需求，交付了超过7,100辆汽车，同比增长125%。</blockquote> Competition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.<blockquote>近年来，电动汽车行业的竞争也愈演愈烈。在过去十年中，由于对气候变化的日益担忧以及传统汽油燃料汽车和电动汽车之间的价格平价，消费者对电动汽车的态度发生了巨大变化。随着第三方原始设备制造商更容易获得汽车电池解决方案，新兴电动汽车制造商的进入门槛也大幅降低；随着初始投资变得比2003年特斯拉更加合理，新进入者现在更热衷于参与不断增长的电动汽车行业的盈利机会，当时电动汽车对许多人来说仍然只是一个概念。除了新进入者之外，福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）等传统汽油燃料汽车制造商也开始将全电池驱动的汽车纳入其车队，以满足不断变化的消费者需求并保持在汽车行业内的竞争力。然而，我们相信蔚来拥有在新的竞争格局中长期保持成功所需的品牌、客户体验、生产战略、人才和商业模式（此处进一步分析）。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> NIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.<blockquote>蔚来已经在中国国内市场建立了强大的品牌影响力，中国国内市场是目前增长最快的电动汽车市场之一，2020年占全球电动汽车销量的40%以上。结合其生产优质电动汽车、建设创新充电基础设施、在自动驾驶技术开发方面取得突破性进展以及执行海外扩张战略的能力，蔚来正在有效缩小与特斯拉在全球电动汽车领域的差距。我们相信，由于汽车行业对电气化和自动化的需求不断增长，未来五年将是电动汽车和科技公司的转型时代，蔚来已经证明在这方面表现出色。其持续成就的价值将很快反映在其股价中，对于那些希望从即将到来的绿色转型和自动化时代中获利的人来说，这使其成为值得选择的股票。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432901-nio-stock-reach-100","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148130971","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO's share price has soared by more than 816% in the past year, peaking at almost $62 in early February before the growth stock sell-off in early March.\nThe company's innovative approach and overseas expansion strategy, combined with the growing market sentiment on global electrification and automation are expected to boost the company's valuation.\nWe believe NIO's share price will soar beyond $160 by 2025 as global EV sales continue to ramp up with autonomous driving becoming a reality.\n\nPhoto by Drew Angerer/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nDespite it being a local Chinese electric vehicle (“EV”) brand that has only recently started its overseas expansion into Europe, NIO(NYSE:NIO)has already garnered significant international attention amidst avid investors within the EV sector in recent years. It has only been three short years since NIO made its first deliveries in mid-2018, yet many are already wondering whether its share price can reach similar heights as an industry leader, Tesla’s(NASDAQ:TSLA). Albeit a little farfetched given Tesla is currently trading at more than $600 per share with a market cap of more than $600 billion, we do believe NIO has promising potential to break $100 per share before 2025. Even Wall Street Analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future by assigning a price target of close to $60, which represents upward potential of more than 35% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st).\nFounded in 2014, NIO has sold and delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in China to date. The company boasts a fleet of five emission-free, fully battery-powered models, ranging from sports cars to luxury sedans and full-size SUVs. In addition to their vehicles, NIO is also known for their significant progress achieved in innovative technology, including state-of-the-art battery solutions, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving. The company has also recently turned their global expansion plans into reality, with the first overseas NIO store to open in Oslo, Norway in Q3 2021. We believe that reaching a share price of $100 is no longer a question of “if”, but instead, “when”.\nA Trailblazer in Innovative Technology\nSource:ir.nio.com\nNIO has continuously exhibited characteristics of an unsettling innovator. The brand is widely known for their breakthrough in battery swapping technology, “Power Swap”, which provides NIO owners with a fast and convenient solution to concerns over the typically limited travel range of EVs. Similar to a gas station, Power Swap is a battery swapping station that can swap a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes; a fully charged battery enables a NIO vehicle to travel up to 435 miles, which is more than double of the 181-mile average travel range of electric vehicles currently available on the market. NIO owners have the option to subscribe to the“Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”)package, which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal needs. The company currently offers a standard 75 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 310 miles on a full charge, and an enhanced 100 kWh battery which enables a travel range of up to 435 miles on a full charge; both are available for NIO owners to choose from on a month-to-month basis under BaaS. To date, there are more than 226 battery swapping stations across China, with more on the way following a recent strategic partnership agreement between NIO and Sinopec. NIO’s vehicles are also compatible with local competitor XPeng’s(NYSE:XPEV)1,140 vehicle charging stations available across 164 cities in China, which further enhances its existing network of charging infrastructure in place for NIO owners.\nIn addition to the developed network of infrastructure needed to sustain NIO EVs in the long run, the company has also been working diligently on perfecting their autonomous driving and AI technology in order to remain competitive in the broader EV and tech space. NIO has already been performing testing on its autonomous driving systems since 2016, with their first testing on public roads in Beijing performed in 2018. The company’s commitment to the future of passenger transportation is also proven through their development of EVE, the brand’s concept car for autonomous driving which encompasses a luxurious, comfortable and safe experience powered by NIO’s NOMI AI, the world’s first in-vehicle artificial intelligence.\nTo further enhance their progress in autonomous driving technology, NIO has recently partnered with Mobileye – an Intel-owned(NASDAQ:INTC)company known for developing the “EyeQ chip” currently used by more than 27 car manufacturers for their assisted-driving technologies – to develop and commercialize driving automation that does not require human interaction (i.e. “level 4” autonomous driving). Their collaboration is expected to accelerate NIO’s launch of the “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”) package, which is a monthly subscription for their autonomous driving technology, “NIO Autonomous Driving” (“NAD”). However, similar to Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” package, the NAD technology that is expected to launch in 2022 does not yet make NIO vehicles capable of driving without human intervention, but it does catapult NIO to a comparable spot with industry leader Tesla in the race towards level 4 autonomous driving. NIO owners will have the option to subscribe to ADaaS for a monthly subscription fee of RMB 680. With more than 102,000 NIO vehicles on the road today, the new subscription package is expected to generate incremental annual sales of RMB 840 million ($132 million); the additional revenue stream is valued at approximately RMB 10 billion ($1.6 billion) upon the service’s inception, assuming an average vehicle life of 12 years with most existing NIO owners signing up.\nNIO’s continuous developments in autonomous driving technology are expected to benefit the company and its shareholders greatly in the near future. By 2025, the global autonomous cars market will become one of the fastest growing and most highly demanded segments with an estimated value of $1.6 trillion. A 6% share of this market would add a valuation of at least $100 billion to NIO’s existing $67 billion market cap, boosting its per unit share value to more than $100. Considering NIO is currently one of the very few fully electric automakers to have achieved tangible results within the autonomous driving scene, and is actively growing its overseas sales, we are confident that the company is capable of capturing more than 6% of the said market share, and achieve a per unit share price of more than $100 by 2025 with ease. Combined with the global shift in consumer preference towards electrification and automation, we are projecting vehicle sales of approximately 300,000 units by FY 2025, which will yield total revenues of approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion).\nSource: Author, with data from our internal forecasts (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nGlobal Expansion\nSource: ir.nio.com\nAnother catalyst that will propel NIO’s share price beyond $100 is their ongoing overseas expansion efforts. NIO has been transparent about their intentions to expand globally, especially in the U.S. and Europe, as part of their plans in becoming an industry leader. NIO will be opening its first overseas sales and service centre in Oslo, Norway in September. The brand’s footprint in Norway will further expand in 2022 with four more NIO stores to open in Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristiansand. In addition to its direct sales and service centres, NIO will also be introducing a full charging map for Europe, starting with four NIO Power Swap stations in Norway to provide new NIO owners with the convenience and range that the brand builds its success on. NIO’s flagship SUV, the ES8, which currently retails at a starting price of approximately US$67,000, will be the first model introduced in the European market, with the brand’s newest full-size sedan, the ET7, to follow in 2022.\nWith a proven sales track record in China’s luxury EV market, and specs comparable to the globally recognized Tesla, there is no reason for NIO to not succeed overseas. As mentioned in earlier sections, NIO’s vehicles have a driving range of up to 435 miles on a full charge, making it a desirable choice for potential European and American car owners looking for a reliable companion to accompany them on daily commutes to long road trips. The NIO exterior and interior designs are also modern, luxurious, and comparable to those preferred by the European and North American population. Combined with a diverse product line and price range, NIO is equipped to take on the increasing demands for EVs on a global scale.\nNIO’s Historical Performance\nJust a little more than a year ago, NIO’s share price hit an all-time low at under $2 amidst liquidity troubles despite continued vehicle sales. In mid-2020, the municipal government of Hefei, China came to NIO’s rescue with a capital injection of RMB 7 billion (approximately $1 billion). The arrangement resulted in the creation of “NIO China”, which serves as the operating entity that holds all of NIO’s core businesses and assets; NIO currently holds a 90.36% ownership interest in NIO China, while the “Hefei Strategic Investors” consortium holds the remainder 9.64%. The partnership became the company’s lifeline; the additional capital brought forth significant improvements to the company’s operations and vehicle sales, which were reflected in their strong financial performance and upward trend in share price in the summer of 2020. By the end of 2020’s second quarter, NIO’s share price rebounded by almost 20% on average after posting a 171% quarter-over-quarter increase in total revenues. The company’s share price more than tripled in 2020’s third quarter, averaging $15.40, and continued to climb towards its fourth quarter average of $38.70. By the end of the latest quarter ended March 31st, 2021, NIO’s share price averaged $50.97, and peaked at almost $62 in February which is more than 10x its IPO price in 2018. The company holds a market cap of more than $67 billion today, outgrowing its mere $1 billion market cap when it made its debut on the NYSE.\nSource: Author, with data from ir.nio.com\nNIO’s fundamentals have also shown nothing but steady improvements since its share price peaked earlier this year before the growth stock sell-off in late February. Deliveries in 2021 have continued to accelerate exponentially, with first quarter deliveries of more than 20,000 vehicles, representing almost 50% of total deliveries made in 2020. The company continues to exhibit a promising outlook with more than 7,100 vehicles delivered in April, representing an increase of more than 125% year-over-year. NIO has also maintained positive cash flows from operating activities for the first quarter of 2021, thanks to the higher deliveries and effective cost-management measures which have amped up their gross profit margin to 19.5%, comparable with industry leaders like Tesla whose first quarter gross margins were 21%. As aforementioned, we are forecasting vehicle sales of close to 300,000 units by FY 2025, which translates to approximately RMB 140 billion ($22 billion) in total revenues ($18.60 per share). Our vehicle sales forecast for FY 2025 is further corroborated by the recently renewed manufacturing agreement with joint venturer “Jianghuai Automobile Group” (“JAC”), which increases the current annual production capacity of 100,000 units to 240,000 units; the ongoing construction of “NeoPark” in Hefei, China is also expected to add annual production capacity of 1 million units, which further supports our positive outlook on NIO’s continued commitment to grow its business. Considering industry peer Tesla’s current P/S ratio of 16.43x with approximately $42 billion in annual revenues (annualization of $10.389 billion in first quarter revenues), the same proportion applied to NIO’s forecasted FY 2025 total revenues is expected to yield a P/S ratio of 8.7x, resulting in a share price of more than $160.\nNIO vs. LI and XPEV\nSource: Finviz\nWe have also compared NIO’s current P/S ratio to its domestic peers to gauge the timeline in which NIO’s share price will exceed $100. NIO currently trades at a P/S ratio of approximately 14.88x, while domestic industry peers, Li Auto(NASDAQ:LI)and XPEV, currently trade at a P/S ratio of 14.46x and 21.31x, respectively.\nConsidering NIO’s technology, revenues, global footprint, and cash flows are stronger than LI’s and XPEV’s, the former deserves to be traded at a much higher multiple than the latter two. Even if NIO reaches a P/S ratio of 18.1x (mid-point to XPEV's), it will drive the company’s current share price up to $51.50, which represents an upside potential of 22% based on the last traded share price of $42.34 (June 1st). And based on our forecasted revenues for FY 2025 for NIO of RMB 140 billion ($22 billion), or $18.60 per share, even a multiple half of the 18.1x would be more than sufficient to bring NIO's share price beyond $160 by 2025; we believe the trading multiple is achievable for NIO given the cash from operations and technological advancements achieved by then would place them on a trajectory of continued long-term growth within the EV industry, which is expected to continue into 2030 and beyond when the brand's level 4 autonomous driving technology development is complete and commercialized.\nBusiness Risks and Challenges\nAs mentioned in one of my previous articles on NIO, the “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act” (“HFCA Act”) remains one of the most significant impending threats to the company’s share price. Currently, public accounting firms in China are non-compliant with PCAOB inspection rules required by the SEC, and the enactment of the HFCA Act in December 2020 requires that these public accounting firms comply with PCAOB inspection requests within three years of the enactment date; otherwise, all public companies audited by said firms will be subject to risks of de-listing. NIO is currently audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian LLP, which is on PCAOB’s denied-access list. The potential threat of being delisted from the NYSE could be a deterrence factor to investors and ultimately hemorrhage NIO’s share price in the long run if Chinese authorities and the PCAOB cannot reach an agreement on conducting inspections soon.\nAnother imminent challenge to NIO’s business is the ongoing global chip supply shortage. As the automotive industry becomes more dependent on chips to manage every function of their vehicles, the gap between automaker demands and chip manufacturer supplies is widened. NIO was no exception to the impacts of the ongoing chip supply crisis – in March 2021, NIO halted their production activity at the JAC-NIO manufacturing plant for five working days in order to adjust their production levels. However, the company continues to effectively navigate through the situation as proven through their increasing number of deliveries month-over-month; in NIO’s latest delivery update press release for April, the company has continued to keep up with market demand with more than 7,100 vehicle deliveries made, representing a 125% year-over-year growth.\nCompetition within the EV sector has also ramped up in recent years. Consumer attitude towards EVs has changed drastically in the past decade due to rising concerns over climate change met with price parity between traditional petrol-fueled vehicles and EVs. The entry barrier for emerging EV makers has also lowered significantly as car battery solutions become more accessible through third-party OEMs; new entrants are now keener on participating in the profitable opportunity within the growing EV sector as initial investments become more reasonable than it was for Tesla in 2003 when EVs were still just a concept to many. In addition to new entrants, traditional petrol-fueled automakers like Ford(NYSE:F)have also started to incorporate fully battery-powered vehicles into their fleet in order to meet evolving consumer demands and remain competitive within the automotive industry. However, we believe NIO possesses the brand, customer experience, production strategy, talent and business model (further analyzedhere) needed to remain successful within the new competitive landscape in the long run.\nConclusion\nNIO has already established a strong brand presence within the domestic Chinese market, which is currently one of the fastest growing EV markets, representing more than 40% of global EV sales in 2020. Combined with their proven ability to produce quality EVs, construct innovative charging infrastructure, achieve breakthrough progress in the development of autonomous driving technology, and execute their overseas expansion strategy, NIO is effectively narrowing the gap between them and Tesla within the EV sector on a global scale. We are confident that the next five years will be a transformational era for the EV and tech company due to increasing demands for electrification and automation within the automotive industry, which NIO has already proven to excel in. The value of its continued achievements will be reflected in its share price in no time, making them a worthy stock pick for those looking to profit off of the impending age of green transition and automation.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":590,"commentSize":270,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":2,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}