This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share

MarketWatch2021-07-14

Market share trumps pricing power. Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle. What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how ...

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282

Asta168
·2021-07-15
Can it be true that companies will sacrifice their profit?
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Dman5
·2021-07-14
True inflation should go down so
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6c283a99
·2021-07-14
Ok
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DLIM
·2021-07-14
Good information
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HandsomeLee
·2021-07-14
Good article
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CWL711
·2021-07-14
Ok, like please thank you
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james_l
·2021-07-14
Inflation came in higher than expected
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Lifestyle
·2021-07-14
Inflation fears is history and market has priced in😉
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- Gaga71:
  So no risk?
  2021-07-14
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Asycroft
·2021-07-14
Nice
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- Lifestyle:
  Yeah
  2021-07-14
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CIG
·2021-07-14
Good points, not scared by the percentage.
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23a2d027
·2021-07-14
o o
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- hpt:
  Pls like
  2021-07-14
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dt1
·2021-07-14
[微笑]
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geneviL
·2021-07-14
Well said..but please don't ignored the fact, when ppl are receiving higher pay cheque. What do u think they will do with their pay cheque? Keeping all of them for rainy days?..I'm pretty sure this is not the end but is just the begaining. However, The spike will slow down after Christmas and normaliszed come 2022.
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- PurpleBarley:
  👍🏻
  2021-07-14
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glorify
·2021-07-14
Though surge but is temporary! Seem not sustain? Hope it is mean for temporary correction & bounce back again!
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- dt1:
  [微笑]
  2021-07-14
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TSENR3
·2021-07-14
Hear and see how.
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bernardtayet
·2021-07-14
Steady don't panic in such environment.
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- TSENR3:
  steady. Like, comment and follow me pls
  2021-07-14
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Simbax
·2021-07-14
like and comment
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8
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- kenong62:
  done
  2021-07-14
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- 小虎一飞冲天:
  👍🏼
  2021-07-14
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- TSENR3:
  Like, comment and follow me pls
  2021-07-14
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7e08975
·2021-07-14
Means stock market will crash?
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- TSENR3:
  Nope. Hard. Like, comment and follow me pls
  2021-07-14
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- 7e08975:
  What you mean by nope, hard?
  2021-07-14
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eikshuan
·2021-07-14
Give and take
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- Simbax:
  liked
  2021-07-14
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MarketPulse
·2021-07-14
This make sense
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- KTtrader:
  Agree
  Market correction to come?
  2021-07-14
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- MarketPulse:
  Maybe, it also depands on news from FEDs
  2021-07-14
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Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.\nCalculated risk\nBut it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.\nWhat June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.\nAgain, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.\nSo long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.\nHere’s why inflation has peaked\nFirst, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.\nSecond, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.\nThird, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.\nFourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.\nFinally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.\nOur assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":144262639,"gmtCreate":1626301685921,"gmtModify":1633928203247,"author":{"id":"4087253710063360","authorId":"4087253710063360","name":"Asta168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0374ed79dc30b8943141ee9dcb8ed63b","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4087253710063360","idStr":"4087253710063360"},"htmlText":"Can it be true that companies will sacrifice their profit?","listText":"Can it be true that companies will sacrifice their profit?","text":"Can it be true that companies will sacrifice their profit?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/144262639","repostId":1148011457,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148011457","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626226288,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148011457?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-14 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148011457","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Market share trumps pricing power.\n\nInflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for t","content":" Market share trumps pricing power. Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.<blockquote>市场份额胜过定价权。6月份通胀飙升，但目前已达到或接近本周期的峰值。</blockquote> What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?<blockquote>从现在开始，将决定消费者价格通胀路径的是企业如何回答一个关键问题：保护利润率和保护市场份额哪个更重要？</blockquote> There is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.<blockquote>毫无疑问，投入成本飙升。支付更高的工资来吸引新员工并留住现有员工确实会增加运营费用。在关键商品上的支出增加也是如此。因此，将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户的诱惑很大。</blockquote> Calculated risk<blockquote>计算风险</blockquote> But it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.<blockquote>但这也是一个经过计算的风险。人们总是担心长期客户会离开，转而与突然看到通过降价脱颖而出的机会的竞争对手做生意。如果说各种规模的公司都吸取了一个惨痛的教训，那就是一旦失去市场份额，想要夺回市场份额是极其困难和昂贵的。</blockquote> What June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.<blockquote>6月份消费者价格指数上涨0.9%告诉我们，大多数企业发现他们的运营费用增长太多、太快，根本无法吸收。他们不得不通过向消费者收取更多费用来弥补利润的萎缩。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8661c9e62b57cf95d3d61da103d77a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"710\">Again, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households&nbsp;are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.<blockquote>再说一次，这是一个经过计算的风险，而且可能是安全的…就目前而言！毕竟，家庭现金充裕，渴望消费，这意味着美国人此时不太可能对价格敏感。我们已经几十年没有见过这样的定价权了。过去12个月通胀率上涨5.4%，为2008年夏季以来最快涨幅，核心CPI大幅上涨4.5%，为1991年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote> So long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.<blockquote>只要定价权不威胁市场份额，通胀就会继续攀升。但历史表明，这种情况不会持续太久。价格竞争将在今年下半年重新出现，并在2022年更加激烈，这应该会缓解通胀压力。原因如下。</blockquote> Here’s why inflation has peaked<blockquote>这就是通货膨胀见顶的原因</blockquote> First, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.<blockquote>首先，随着华盛顿从财政刺激转向财政紧缩，我们预计家庭消费将相应缓解。</blockquote> Second, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.<blockquote>其次，过去一年消费者被压抑的需求大幅增加，为经济提供了巨大的前进动力。但随着需求得到满足，这种支出驱动将失去动力。</blockquote> Third, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.<blockquote>第三，毫无疑问，美联储正准备缩减对抵押贷款支持证券和美国国债的购买。无论是今年年底还是明年初开始缩减量化宽松，一旦他们这样做，借贷成本都会增加。这将减缓房屋销售和资本投资。</blockquote> Fourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.<blockquote>第四，上半年的供应链瓶颈开始缓解。货船正在以更快的速度卸货，尤其是在西海岸。物流的改善为大宗商品和成品价格的走低奠定了基础。</blockquote> Finally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.<blockquote>最后，我要说，这将是一些不情愿，尽管我们希望宣布战胜新冠肺炎病毒，但这样做还为时过早。新变种（Delta、Delta plus和现在的Lambda）在美国的出现，加上让70%至80%的美国人口完全接种疫苗的挑战（根据CDC的数据，截至今天，这一数字仅为48%），引发了秋冬季另一波感染的担忧。这也可能会给经济带来一些压力。</blockquote> Our assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.<blockquote>我们的评估是，我们已接近通胀周期的顶峰，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数投票成员都认同这一普遍情绪。随着消费者寻求更多交易，以及企业重新专注于锁定（如果不是扩大）市场份额，推动价格竞争和降低零售价格的力量必然会出现。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-07-14 09:31\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n Market share trumps pricing power. Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.<blockquote>市场份额胜过定价权。6月份通胀飙升，但目前已达到或接近本周期的峰值。</blockquote> What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?<blockquote>从现在开始，将决定消费者价格通胀路径的是企业如何回答一个关键问题：保护利润率和保护市场份额哪个更重要？</blockquote> There is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.<blockquote>毫无疑问，投入成本飙升。支付更高的工资来吸引新员工并留住现有员工确实会增加运营费用。在关键商品上的支出增加也是如此。因此，将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户的诱惑很大。</blockquote> Calculated risk<blockquote>计算风险</blockquote> But it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.<blockquote>但这也是一个经过计算的风险。人们总是担心长期客户会离开，转而与突然看到通过降价脱颖而出的机会的竞争对手做生意。如果说各种规模的公司都吸取了一个惨痛的教训，那就是一旦失去市场份额，想要夺回市场份额是极其困难和昂贵的。</blockquote> What June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.<blockquote>6月份消费者价格指数上涨0.9%告诉我们，大多数企业发现他们的运营费用增长太多、太快，根本无法吸收。他们不得不通过向消费者收取更多费用来弥补利润的萎缩。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8661c9e62b57cf95d3d61da103d77a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"710\">Again, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households&nbsp;are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.<blockquote>再说一次，这是一个经过计算的风险，而且可能是安全的…就目前而言！毕竟，家庭现金充裕，渴望消费，这意味着美国人此时不太可能对价格敏感。我们已经几十年没有见过这样的定价权了。过去12个月通胀率上涨5.4%，为2008年夏季以来最快涨幅，核心CPI大幅上涨4.5%，为1991年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote> So long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.<blockquote>只要定价权不威胁市场份额，通胀就会继续攀升。但历史表明，这种情况不会持续太久。价格竞争将在今年下半年重新出现，并在2022年更加激烈，这应该会缓解通胀压力。原因如下。</blockquote> Here’s why inflation has peaked<blockquote>这就是通货膨胀见顶的原因</blockquote> First, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.<blockquote>首先，随着华盛顿从财政刺激转向财政紧缩，我们预计家庭消费将相应缓解。</blockquote> Second, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.<blockquote>其次，过去一年消费者被压抑的需求大幅增加，为经济提供了巨大的前进动力。但随着需求得到满足，这种支出驱动将失去动力。</blockquote> Third, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.<blockquote>第三，毫无疑问，美联储正准备缩减对抵押贷款支持证券和美国国债的购买。无论是今年年底还是明年初开始缩减量化宽松，一旦他们这样做，借贷成本都会增加。这将减缓房屋销售和资本投资。</blockquote> Fourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.<blockquote>第四，上半年的供应链瓶颈开始缓解。货船正在以更快的速度卸货，尤其是在西海岸。物流的改善为大宗商品和成品价格的走低奠定了基础。</blockquote> Finally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.<blockquote>最后，我要说，这将是一些不情愿，尽管我们希望宣布战胜新冠肺炎病毒，但这样做还为时过早。新变种（Delta、Delta plus和现在的Lambda）在美国的出现，加上让70%至80%的美国人口完全接种疫苗的挑战（根据CDC的数据，截至今天，这一数字仅为48%），引发了秋冬季另一波感染的担忧。这也可能会给经济带来一些压力。</blockquote> Our assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.<blockquote>我们的评估是，我们已接近通胀周期的顶峰，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数投票成员都认同这一普遍情绪。随着消费者寻求更多交易，以及企业重新专注于锁定（如果不是扩大）市场份额，推动价格竞争和降低零售价格的力量必然会出现。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-weve-seen-the-peak-of-inflation-for-this-cycle-11626195636?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-weve-seen-the-peak-of-inflation-for-this-cycle-11626195636?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148011457","content_text":"Market share trumps pricing power.\n\nInflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.\nWhat will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?\nThere is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.\nCalculated risk\nBut it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.\nWhat June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.\nAgain, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.\nSo long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.\nHere’s why inflation has peaked\nFirst, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.\nSecond, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.\nThird, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.\nFourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.\nFinally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.\nOur assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":144303352,"gmtCreate":1626265580876,"gmtModify":1633928509247,"author":{"id":"4087270895708000","authorId":"4087270895708000","name":"Dman5","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3922d758264ca03a649cb6eec0180c9","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4087270895708000","idStr":"4087270895708000"},"htmlText":"True inflation should go down so","listText":"True inflation should go down so","text":"True inflation should go down so","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/144303352","repostId":1148011457,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148011457","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626226288,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148011457?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-14 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148011457","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Market share trumps pricing power.\n\nInflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for t","content":" Market share trumps pricing power. Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.<blockquote>市场份额胜过定价权。6月份通胀飙升，但目前已达到或接近本周期的峰值。</blockquote> What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?<blockquote>从现在开始，将决定消费者价格通胀路径的是企业如何回答一个关键问题：保护利润率和保护市场份额哪个更重要？</blockquote> There is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.<blockquote>毫无疑问，投入成本飙升。支付更高的工资来吸引新员工并留住现有员工确实会增加运营费用。在关键商品上的支出增加也是如此。因此，将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户的诱惑很大。</blockquote> Calculated risk<blockquote>计算风险</blockquote> But it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.<blockquote>但这也是一个经过计算的风险。人们总是担心长期客户会离开，转而与突然看到通过降价脱颖而出的机会的竞争对手做生意。如果说各种规模的公司都吸取了一个惨痛的教训，那就是一旦失去市场份额，想要夺回市场份额是极其困难和昂贵的。</blockquote> What June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.<blockquote>6月份消费者价格指数上涨0.9%告诉我们，大多数企业发现他们的运营费用增长太多、太快，根本无法吸收。他们不得不通过向消费者收取更多费用来弥补利润的萎缩。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8661c9e62b57cf95d3d61da103d77a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"710\">Again, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households&nbsp;are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.<blockquote>再说一次，这是一个经过计算的风险，而且可能是安全的…就目前而言！毕竟，家庭现金充裕，渴望消费，这意味着美国人此时不太可能对价格敏感。我们已经几十年没有见过这样的定价权了。过去12个月通胀率上涨5.4%，为2008年夏季以来最快涨幅，核心CPI大幅上涨4.5%，为1991年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote> So long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.<blockquote>只要定价权不威胁市场份额，通胀就会继续攀升。但历史表明，这种情况不会持续太久。价格竞争将在今年下半年重新出现，并在2022年更加激烈，这应该会缓解通胀压力。原因如下。</blockquote> Here’s why inflation has peaked<blockquote>这就是通货膨胀见顶的原因</blockquote> First, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.<blockquote>首先，随着华盛顿从财政刺激转向财政紧缩，我们预计家庭消费将相应缓解。</blockquote> Second, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.<blockquote>其次，过去一年消费者被压抑的需求大幅增加，为经济提供了巨大的前进动力。但随着需求得到满足，这种支出驱动将失去动力。</blockquote> Third, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.<blockquote>第三，毫无疑问，美联储正准备缩减对抵押贷款支持证券和美国国债的购买。无论是今年年底还是明年初开始缩减量化宽松，一旦他们这样做，借贷成本都会增加。这将减缓房屋销售和资本投资。</blockquote> Fourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.<blockquote>第四，上半年的供应链瓶颈开始缓解。货船正在以更快的速度卸货，尤其是在西海岸。物流的改善为大宗商品和成品价格的走低奠定了基础。</blockquote> Finally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.<blockquote>最后，我要说，这将是一些不情愿，尽管我们希望宣布战胜新冠肺炎病毒，但这样做还为时过早。新变种（Delta、Delta plus和现在的Lambda）在美国的出现，加上让70%至80%的美国人口完全接种疫苗的挑战（根据CDC的数据，截至今天，这一数字仅为48%），引发了秋冬季另一波感染的担忧。这也可能会给经济带来一些压力。</blockquote> Our assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.<blockquote>我们的评估是，我们已接近通胀周期的顶峰，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数投票成员都认同这一普遍情绪。随着消费者寻求更多交易，以及企业重新专注于锁定（如果不是扩大）市场份额，推动价格竞争和降低零售价格的力量必然会出现。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-07-14 09:31\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n Market share trumps pricing power. Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.<blockquote>市场份额胜过定价权。6月份通胀飙升，但目前已达到或接近本周期的峰值。</blockquote> What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?<blockquote>从现在开始，将决定消费者价格通胀路径的是企业如何回答一个关键问题：保护利润率和保护市场份额哪个更重要？</blockquote> There is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.<blockquote>毫无疑问，投入成本飙升。支付更高的工资来吸引新员工并留住现有员工确实会增加运营费用。在关键商品上的支出增加也是如此。因此，将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户的诱惑很大。</blockquote> Calculated risk<blockquote>计算风险</blockquote> But it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.<blockquote>但这也是一个经过计算的风险。人们总是担心长期客户会离开，转而与突然看到通过降价脱颖而出的机会的竞争对手做生意。如果说各种规模的公司都吸取了一个惨痛的教训，那就是一旦失去市场份额，想要夺回市场份额是极其困难和昂贵的。</blockquote> What June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.<blockquote>6月份消费者价格指数上涨0.9%告诉我们，大多数企业发现他们的运营费用增长太多、太快，根本无法吸收。他们不得不通过向消费者收取更多费用来弥补利润的萎缩。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8661c9e62b57cf95d3d61da103d77a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"710\">Again, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households&nbsp;are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.<blockquote>再说一次，这是一个经过计算的风险，而且可能是安全的…就目前而言！毕竟，家庭现金充裕，渴望消费，这意味着美国人此时不太可能对价格敏感。我们已经几十年没有见过这样的定价权了。过去12个月通胀率上涨5.4%，为2008年夏季以来最快涨幅，核心CPI大幅上涨4.5%，为1991年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote> So long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.<blockquote>只要定价权不威胁市场份额，通胀就会继续攀升。但历史表明，这种情况不会持续太久。价格竞争将在今年下半年重新出现，并在2022年更加激烈，这应该会缓解通胀压力。原因如下。</blockquote> Here’s why inflation has peaked<blockquote>这就是通货膨胀见顶的原因</blockquote> First, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.<blockquote>首先，随着华盛顿从财政刺激转向财政紧缩，我们预计家庭消费将相应缓解。</blockquote> Second, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.<blockquote>其次，过去一年消费者被压抑的需求大幅增加，为经济提供了巨大的前进动力。但随着需求得到满足，这种支出驱动将失去动力。</blockquote> Third, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.<blockquote>第三，毫无疑问，美联储正准备缩减对抵押贷款支持证券和美国国债的购买。无论是今年年底还是明年初开始缩减量化宽松，一旦他们这样做，借贷成本都会增加。这将减缓房屋销售和资本投资。</blockquote> Fourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.<blockquote>第四，上半年的供应链瓶颈开始缓解。货船正在以更快的速度卸货，尤其是在西海岸。物流的改善为大宗商品和成品价格的走低奠定了基础。</blockquote> Finally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.<blockquote>最后，我要说，这将是一些不情愿，尽管我们希望宣布战胜新冠肺炎病毒，但这样做还为时过早。新变种（Delta、Delta plus和现在的Lambda）在美国的出现，加上让70%至80%的美国人口完全接种疫苗的挑战（根据CDC的数据，截至今天，这一数字仅为48%），引发了秋冬季另一波感染的担忧。这也可能会给经济带来一些压力。</blockquote> Our assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.<blockquote>我们的评估是，我们已接近通胀周期的顶峰，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数投票成员都认同这一普遍情绪。随着消费者寻求更多交易，以及企业重新专注于锁定（如果不是扩大）市场份额，推动价格竞争和降低零售价格的力量必然会出现。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-weve-seen-the-peak-of-inflation-for-this-cycle-11626195636?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-weve-seen-the-peak-of-inflation-for-this-cycle-11626195636?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148011457","content_text":"Market share trumps pricing power.\n\nInflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.\nWhat will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?\nThere is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.\nCalculated risk\nBut it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.\nWhat June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.\nAgain, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.\nSo long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.\nHere’s why inflation has peaked\nFirst, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.\nSecond, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.\nThird, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.\nFourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.\nFinally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.\nOur assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":144902879,"gmtCreate":1626258339191,"gmtModify":1633928574032,"author":{"id":"3585306064379170","authorId":"3585306064379170","name":"6c283a99","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3585306064379170","idStr":"3585306064379170"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/144902879","repostId":1148011457,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148011457","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626226288,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148011457?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-14 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148011457","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Market share trumps pricing power.\n\nInflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for t","content":" Market share trumps pricing power. Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.<blockquote>市场份额胜过定价权。6月份通胀飙升，但目前已达到或接近本周期的峰值。</blockquote> What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?<blockquote>从现在开始，将决定消费者价格通胀路径的是企业如何回答一个关键问题：保护利润率和保护市场份额哪个更重要？</blockquote> There is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.<blockquote>毫无疑问，投入成本飙升。支付更高的工资来吸引新员工并留住现有员工确实会增加运营费用。在关键商品上的支出增加也是如此。因此，将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户的诱惑很大。</blockquote> Calculated risk<blockquote>计算风险</blockquote> But it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.<blockquote>但这也是一个经过计算的风险。人们总是担心长期客户会离开，转而与突然看到通过降价脱颖而出的机会的竞争对手做生意。如果说各种规模的公司都吸取了一个惨痛的教训，那就是一旦失去市场份额，想要夺回市场份额是极其困难和昂贵的。</blockquote> What June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.<blockquote>6月份消费者价格指数上涨0.9%告诉我们，大多数企业发现他们的运营费用增长太多、太快，根本无法吸收。他们不得不通过向消费者收取更多费用来弥补利润的萎缩。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8661c9e62b57cf95d3d61da103d77a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"710\">Again, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households&nbsp;are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.<blockquote>再说一次，这是一个经过计算的风险，而且可能是安全的…就目前而言！毕竟，家庭现金充裕，渴望消费，这意味着美国人此时不太可能对价格敏感。我们已经几十年没有见过这样的定价权了。过去12个月通胀率上涨5.4%，为2008年夏季以来最快涨幅，核心CPI大幅上涨4.5%，为1991年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote> So long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.<blockquote>只要定价权不威胁市场份额，通胀就会继续攀升。但历史表明，这种情况不会持续太久。价格竞争将在今年下半年重新出现，并在2022年更加激烈，这应该会缓解通胀压力。原因如下。</blockquote> Here’s why inflation has peaked<blockquote>这就是通货膨胀见顶的原因</blockquote> First, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.<blockquote>首先，随着华盛顿从财政刺激转向财政紧缩，我们预计家庭消费将相应缓解。</blockquote> Second, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.<blockquote>其次，过去一年消费者被压抑的需求大幅增加，为经济提供了巨大的前进动力。但随着需求得到满足，这种支出驱动将失去动力。</blockquote> Third, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.<blockquote>第三，毫无疑问，美联储正准备缩减对抵押贷款支持证券和美国国债的购买。无论是今年年底还是明年初开始缩减量化宽松，一旦他们这样做，借贷成本都会增加。这将减缓房屋销售和资本投资。</blockquote> Fourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.<blockquote>第四，上半年的供应链瓶颈开始缓解。货船正在以更快的速度卸货，尤其是在西海岸。物流的改善为大宗商品和成品价格的走低奠定了基础。</blockquote> Finally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.<blockquote>最后，我要说，这将是一些不情愿，尽管我们希望宣布战胜新冠肺炎病毒，但这样做还为时过早。新变种（Delta、Delta plus和现在的Lambda）在美国的出现，加上让70%至80%的美国人口完全接种疫苗的挑战（根据CDC的数据，截至今天，这一数字仅为48%），引发了秋冬季另一波感染的担忧。这也可能会给经济带来一些压力。</blockquote> Our assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.<blockquote>我们的评估是，我们已接近通胀周期的顶峰，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数投票成员都认同这一普遍情绪。随着消费者寻求更多交易，以及企业重新专注于锁定（如果不是扩大）市场份额，推动价格竞争和降低零售价格的力量必然会出现。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-07-14 09:31\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n Market share trumps pricing power. Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.<blockquote>市场份额胜过定价权。6月份通胀飙升，但目前已达到或接近本周期的峰值。</blockquote> What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?<blockquote>从现在开始，将决定消费者价格通胀路径的是企业如何回答一个关键问题：保护利润率和保护市场份额哪个更重要？</blockquote> There is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.<blockquote>毫无疑问，投入成本飙升。支付更高的工资来吸引新员工并留住现有员工确实会增加运营费用。在关键商品上的支出增加也是如此。因此，将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户的诱惑很大。</blockquote> Calculated risk<blockquote>计算风险</blockquote> But it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.<blockquote>但这也是一个经过计算的风险。人们总是担心长期客户会离开，转而与突然看到通过降价脱颖而出的机会的竞争对手做生意。如果说各种规模的公司都吸取了一个惨痛的教训，那就是一旦失去市场份额，想要夺回市场份额是极其困难和昂贵的。</blockquote> What June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.<blockquote>6月份消费者价格指数上涨0.9%告诉我们，大多数企业发现他们的运营费用增长太多、太快，根本无法吸收。他们不得不通过向消费者收取更多费用来弥补利润的萎缩。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8661c9e62b57cf95d3d61da103d77a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"710\">Again, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households&nbsp;are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.<blockquote>再说一次，这是一个经过计算的风险，而且可能是安全的…就目前而言！毕竟，家庭现金充裕，渴望消费，这意味着美国人此时不太可能对价格敏感。我们已经几十年没有见过这样的定价权了。过去12个月通胀率上涨5.4%，为2008年夏季以来最快涨幅，核心CPI大幅上涨4.5%，为1991年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote> So long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.<blockquote>只要定价权不威胁市场份额，通胀就会继续攀升。但历史表明，这种情况不会持续太久。价格竞争将在今年下半年重新出现，并在2022年更加激烈，这应该会缓解通胀压力。原因如下。</blockquote> Here’s why inflation has peaked<blockquote>这就是通货膨胀见顶的原因</blockquote> First, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.<blockquote>首先，随着华盛顿从财政刺激转向财政紧缩，我们预计家庭消费将相应缓解。</blockquote> Second, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.<blockquote>其次，过去一年消费者被压抑的需求大幅增加，为经济提供了巨大的前进动力。但随着需求得到满足，这种支出驱动将失去动力。</blockquote> Third, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.<blockquote>第三，毫无疑问，美联储正准备缩减对抵押贷款支持证券和美国国债的购买。无论是今年年底还是明年初开始缩减量化宽松，一旦他们这样做，借贷成本都会增加。这将减缓房屋销售和资本投资。</blockquote> Fourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.<blockquote>第四，上半年的供应链瓶颈开始缓解。货船正在以更快的速度卸货，尤其是在西海岸。物流的改善为大宗商品和成品价格的走低奠定了基础。</blockquote> Finally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.<blockquote>最后，我要说，这将是一些不情愿，尽管我们希望宣布战胜新冠肺炎病毒，但这样做还为时过早。新变种（Delta、Delta plus和现在的Lambda）在美国的出现，加上让70%至80%的美国人口完全接种疫苗的挑战（根据CDC的数据，截至今天，这一数字仅为48%），引发了秋冬季另一波感染的担忧。这也可能会给经济带来一些压力。</blockquote> Our assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.<blockquote>我们的评估是，我们已接近通胀周期的顶峰，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数投票成员都认同这一普遍情绪。随着消费者寻求更多交易，以及企业重新专注于锁定（如果不是扩大）市场份额，推动价格竞争和降低零售价格的力量必然会出现。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-weve-seen-the-peak-of-inflation-for-this-cycle-11626195636?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-weve-seen-the-peak-of-inflation-for-this-cycle-11626195636?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148011457","content_text":"Market share trumps pricing power.\n\nInflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.\nWhat will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?\nThere is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.\nCalculated risk\nBut it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.\nWhat June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.\nAgain, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.\nSo long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.\nHere’s why inflation has peaked\nFirst, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.\nSecond, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.\nThird, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.\nFourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.\nFinally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.\nOur assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":144061550,"gmtCreate":1626254207670,"gmtModify":1633928605159,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3583811401087980","idStr":"3583811401087980"},"htmlText":"Good information","listText":"Good information","text":"Good information","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/144061550","repostId":1148011457,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148011457","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626226288,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148011457?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-14 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148011457","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Market share trumps pricing power.\n\nInflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for t","content":" Market share trumps pricing power. Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.<blockquote>市场份额胜过定价权。6月份通胀飙升，但目前已达到或接近本周期的峰值。</blockquote> What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?<blockquote>从现在开始，将决定消费者价格通胀路径的是企业如何回答一个关键问题：保护利润率和保护市场份额哪个更重要？</blockquote> There is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.<blockquote>毫无疑问，投入成本飙升。支付更高的工资来吸引新员工并留住现有员工确实会增加运营费用。在关键商品上的支出增加也是如此。因此，将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户的诱惑很大。</blockquote> Calculated risk<blockquote>计算风险</blockquote> But it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.<blockquote>但这也是一个经过计算的风险。人们总是担心长期客户会离开，转而与突然看到通过降价脱颖而出的机会的竞争对手做生意。如果说各种规模的公司都吸取了一个惨痛的教训，那就是一旦失去市场份额，想要夺回市场份额是极其困难和昂贵的。</blockquote> What June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.<blockquote>6月份消费者价格指数上涨0.9%告诉我们，大多数企业发现他们的运营费用增长太多、太快，根本无法吸收。他们不得不通过向消费者收取更多费用来弥补利润的萎缩。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8661c9e62b57cf95d3d61da103d77a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"710\">Again, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households&nbsp;are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.<blockquote>再说一次，这是一个经过计算的风险，而且可能是安全的…就目前而言！毕竟，家庭现金充裕，渴望消费，这意味着美国人此时不太可能对价格敏感。我们已经几十年没有见过这样的定价权了。过去12个月通胀率上涨5.4%，为2008年夏季以来最快涨幅，核心CPI大幅上涨4.5%，为1991年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote> So long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.<blockquote>只要定价权不威胁市场份额，通胀就会继续攀升。但历史表明，这种情况不会持续太久。价格竞争将在今年下半年重新出现，并在2022年更加激烈，这应该会缓解通胀压力。原因如下。</blockquote> Here’s why inflation has peaked<blockquote>这就是通货膨胀见顶的原因</blockquote> First, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.<blockquote>首先，随着华盛顿从财政刺激转向财政紧缩，我们预计家庭消费将相应缓解。</blockquote> Second, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.<blockquote>其次，过去一年消费者被压抑的需求大幅增加，为经济提供了巨大的前进动力。但随着需求得到满足，这种支出驱动将失去动力。</blockquote> Third, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.<blockquote>第三，毫无疑问，美联储正准备缩减对抵押贷款支持证券和美国国债的购买。无论是今年年底还是明年初开始缩减量化宽松，一旦他们这样做，借贷成本都会增加。这将减缓房屋销售和资本投资。</blockquote> Fourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.<blockquote>第四，上半年的供应链瓶颈开始缓解。货船正在以更快的速度卸货，尤其是在西海岸。物流的改善为大宗商品和成品价格的走低奠定了基础。</blockquote> Finally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.<blockquote>最后，我要说，这将是一些不情愿，尽管我们希望宣布战胜新冠肺炎病毒，但这样做还为时过早。新变种（Delta、Delta plus和现在的Lambda）在美国的出现，加上让70%至80%的美国人口完全接种疫苗的挑战（根据CDC的数据，截至今天，这一数字仅为48%），引发了秋冬季另一波感染的担忧。这也可能会给经济带来一些压力。</blockquote> Our assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.<blockquote>我们的评估是，我们已接近通胀周期的顶峰，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数投票成员都认同这一普遍情绪。随着消费者寻求更多交易，以及企业重新专注于锁定（如果不是扩大）市场份额，推动价格竞争和降低零售价格的力量必然会出现。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-07-14 09:31\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n Market share trumps pricing power. Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.<blockquote>市场份额胜过定价权。6月份通胀飙升，但目前已达到或接近本周期的峰值。</blockquote> What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?<blockquote>从现在开始，将决定消费者价格通胀路径的是企业如何回答一个关键问题：保护利润率和保护市场份额哪个更重要？</blockquote> There is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.<blockquote>毫无疑问，投入成本飙升。支付更高的工资来吸引新员工并留住现有员工确实会增加运营费用。在关键商品上的支出增加也是如此。因此，将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户的诱惑很大。</blockquote> Calculated risk<blockquote>计算风险</blockquote> But it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.<blockquote>但这也是一个经过计算的风险。人们总是担心长期客户会离开，转而与突然看到通过降价脱颖而出的机会的竞争对手做生意。如果说各种规模的公司都吸取了一个惨痛的教训，那就是一旦失去市场份额，想要夺回市场份额是极其困难和昂贵的。</blockquote> What June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.<blockquote>6月份消费者价格指数上涨0.9%告诉我们，大多数企业发现他们的运营费用增长太多、太快，根本无法吸收。他们不得不通过向消费者收取更多费用来弥补利润的萎缩。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8661c9e62b57cf95d3d61da103d77a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"710\">Again, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households&nbsp;are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.<blockquote>再说一次，这是一个经过计算的风险，而且可能是安全的…就目前而言！毕竟，家庭现金充裕，渴望消费，这意味着美国人此时不太可能对价格敏感。我们已经几十年没有见过这样的定价权了。过去12个月通胀率上涨5.4%，为2008年夏季以来最快涨幅，核心CPI大幅上涨4.5%，为1991年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote> So long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.<blockquote>只要定价权不威胁市场份额，通胀就会继续攀升。但历史表明，这种情况不会持续太久。价格竞争将在今年下半年重新出现，并在2022年更加激烈，这应该会缓解通胀压力。原因如下。</blockquote> Here’s why inflation has peaked<blockquote>这就是通货膨胀见顶的原因</blockquote> First, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.<blockquote>首先，随着华盛顿从财政刺激转向财政紧缩，我们预计家庭消费将相应缓解。</blockquote> Second, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.<blockquote>其次，过去一年消费者被压抑的需求大幅增加，为经济提供了巨大的前进动力。但随着需求得到满足，这种支出驱动将失去动力。</blockquote> Third, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.<blockquote>第三，毫无疑问，美联储正准备缩减对抵押贷款支持证券和美国国债的购买。无论是今年年底还是明年初开始缩减量化宽松，一旦他们这样做，借贷成本都会增加。这将减缓房屋销售和资本投资。</blockquote> Fourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.<blockquote>第四，上半年的供应链瓶颈开始缓解。货船正在以更快的速度卸货，尤其是在西海岸。物流的改善为大宗商品和成品价格的走低奠定了基础。</blockquote> Finally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.<blockquote>最后，我要说，这将是一些不情愿，尽管我们希望宣布战胜新冠肺炎病毒，但这样做还为时过早。新变种（Delta、Delta plus和现在的Lambda）在美国的出现，加上让70%至80%的美国人口完全接种疫苗的挑战（根据CDC的数据，截至今天，这一数字仅为48%），引发了秋冬季另一波感染的担忧。这也可能会给经济带来一些压力。</blockquote> Our assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.<blockquote>我们的评估是，我们已接近通胀周期的顶峰，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数投票成员都认同这一普遍情绪。随着消费者寻求更多交易，以及企业重新专注于锁定（如果不是扩大）市场份额，推动价格竞争和降低零售价格的力量必然会出现。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-weve-seen-the-peak-of-inflation-for-this-cycle-11626195636?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-weve-seen-the-peak-of-inflation-for-this-cycle-11626195636?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148011457","content_text":"Market share trumps pricing power.\n\nInflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.\nWhat will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?\nThere is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.\nCalculated risk\nBut it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.\nWhat June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.\nAgain, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.\nSo long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.\nHere’s why inflation has peaked\nFirst, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.\nSecond, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.\nThird, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.\nFourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.\nFinally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.\nOur assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":145779647,"gmtCreate":1626250176889,"gmtModify":1633928641938,"author":{"id":"3555582753204069","authorId":"3555582753204069","name":"HandsomeLee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3b95e103d2bfb2320b61f131b0868df","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3555582753204069","idStr":"3555582753204069"},"htmlText":"Good article","listText":"Good article","text":"Good article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145779647","repostId":1148011457,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148011457","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626226288,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148011457?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-14 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148011457","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Market share trumps pricing power.\n\nInflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for t","content":" Market share trumps pricing power. Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.<blockquote>市场份额胜过定价权。6月份通胀飙升，但目前已达到或接近本周期的峰值。</blockquote> What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?<blockquote>从现在开始，将决定消费者价格通胀路径的是企业如何回答一个关键问题：保护利润率和保护市场份额哪个更重要？</blockquote> There is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.<blockquote>毫无疑问，投入成本飙升。支付更高的工资来吸引新员工并留住现有员工确实会增加运营费用。在关键商品上的支出增加也是如此。因此，将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户的诱惑很大。</blockquote> Calculated risk<blockquote>计算风险</blockquote> But it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.<blockquote>但这也是一个经过计算的风险。人们总是担心长期客户会离开，转而与突然看到通过降价脱颖而出的机会的竞争对手做生意。如果说各种规模的公司都吸取了一个惨痛的教训，那就是一旦失去市场份额，想要夺回市场份额是极其困难和昂贵的。</blockquote> What June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.<blockquote>6月份消费者价格指数上涨0.9%告诉我们，大多数企业发现他们的运营费用增长太多、太快，根本无法吸收。他们不得不通过向消费者收取更多费用来弥补利润的萎缩。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8661c9e62b57cf95d3d61da103d77a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"710\">Again, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households&nbsp;are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.<blockquote>再说一次，这是一个经过计算的风险，而且可能是安全的…就目前而言！毕竟，家庭现金充裕，渴望消费，这意味着美国人此时不太可能对价格敏感。我们已经几十年没有见过这样的定价权了。过去12个月通胀率上涨5.4%，为2008年夏季以来最快涨幅，核心CPI大幅上涨4.5%，为1991年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote> So long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.<blockquote>只要定价权不威胁市场份额，通胀就会继续攀升。但历史表明，这种情况不会持续太久。价格竞争将在今年下半年重新出现，并在2022年更加激烈，这应该会缓解通胀压力。原因如下。</blockquote> Here’s why inflation has peaked<blockquote>这就是通货膨胀见顶的原因</blockquote> First, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.<blockquote>首先，随着华盛顿从财政刺激转向财政紧缩，我们预计家庭消费将相应缓解。</blockquote> Second, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.<blockquote>其次，过去一年消费者被压抑的需求大幅增加，为经济提供了巨大的前进动力。但随着需求得到满足，这种支出驱动将失去动力。</blockquote> Third, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.<blockquote>第三，毫无疑问，美联储正准备缩减对抵押贷款支持证券和美国国债的购买。无论是今年年底还是明年初开始缩减量化宽松，一旦他们这样做，借贷成本都会增加。这将减缓房屋销售和资本投资。</blockquote> Fourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.<blockquote>第四，上半年的供应链瓶颈开始缓解。货船正在以更快的速度卸货，尤其是在西海岸。物流的改善为大宗商品和成品价格的走低奠定了基础。</blockquote> Finally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.<blockquote>最后，我要说，这将是一些不情愿，尽管我们希望宣布战胜新冠肺炎病毒，但这样做还为时过早。新变种（Delta、Delta plus和现在的Lambda）在美国的出现，加上让70%至80%的美国人口完全接种疫苗的挑战（根据CDC的数据，截至今天，这一数字仅为48%），引发了秋冬季另一波感染的担忧。这也可能会给经济带来一些压力。</blockquote> Our assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.<blockquote>我们的评估是，我们已接近通胀周期的顶峰，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数投票成员都认同这一普遍情绪。随着消费者寻求更多交易，以及企业重新专注于锁定（如果不是扩大）市场份额，推动价格竞争和降低零售价格的力量必然会出现。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-07-14 09:31\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n Market share trumps pricing power. Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.<blockquote>市场份额胜过定价权。6月份通胀飙升，但目前已达到或接近本周期的峰值。</blockquote> What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?<blockquote>从现在开始，将决定消费者价格通胀路径的是企业如何回答一个关键问题：保护利润率和保护市场份额哪个更重要？</blockquote> There is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.<blockquote>毫无疑问，投入成本飙升。支付更高的工资来吸引新员工并留住现有员工确实会增加运营费用。在关键商品上的支出增加也是如此。因此，将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户的诱惑很大。</blockquote> Calculated risk<blockquote>计算风险</blockquote> But it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.<blockquote>但这也是一个经过计算的风险。人们总是担心长期客户会离开，转而与突然看到通过降价脱颖而出的机会的竞争对手做生意。如果说各种规模的公司都吸取了一个惨痛的教训，那就是一旦失去市场份额，想要夺回市场份额是极其困难和昂贵的。</blockquote> What June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.<blockquote>6月份消费者价格指数上涨0.9%告诉我们，大多数企业发现他们的运营费用增长太多、太快，根本无法吸收。他们不得不通过向消费者收取更多费用来弥补利润的萎缩。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8661c9e62b57cf95d3d61da103d77a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"710\">Again, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households&nbsp;are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.<blockquote>再说一次，这是一个经过计算的风险，而且可能是安全的…就目前而言！毕竟，家庭现金充裕，渴望消费，这意味着美国人此时不太可能对价格敏感。我们已经几十年没有见过这样的定价权了。过去12个月通胀率上涨5.4%，为2008年夏季以来最快涨幅，核心CPI大幅上涨4.5%，为1991年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote> So long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.<blockquote>只要定价权不威胁市场份额，通胀就会继续攀升。但历史表明，这种情况不会持续太久。价格竞争将在今年下半年重新出现，并在2022年更加激烈，这应该会缓解通胀压力。原因如下。</blockquote> Here’s why inflation has peaked<blockquote>这就是通货膨胀见顶的原因</blockquote> First, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.<blockquote>首先，随着华盛顿从财政刺激转向财政紧缩，我们预计家庭消费将相应缓解。</blockquote> Second, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.<blockquote>其次，过去一年消费者被压抑的需求大幅增加，为经济提供了巨大的前进动力。但随着需求得到满足，这种支出驱动将失去动力。</blockquote> Third, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.<blockquote>第三，毫无疑问，美联储正准备缩减对抵押贷款支持证券和美国国债的购买。无论是今年年底还是明年初开始缩减量化宽松，一旦他们这样做，借贷成本都会增加。这将减缓房屋销售和资本投资。</blockquote> Fourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.<blockquote>第四，上半年的供应链瓶颈开始缓解。货船正在以更快的速度卸货，尤其是在西海岸。物流的改善为大宗商品和成品价格的走低奠定了基础。</blockquote> Finally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.<blockquote>最后，我要说，这将是一些不情愿，尽管我们希望宣布战胜新冠肺炎病毒，但这样做还为时过早。新变种（Delta、Delta plus和现在的Lambda）在美国的出现，加上让70%至80%的美国人口完全接种疫苗的挑战（根据CDC的数据，截至今天，这一数字仅为48%），引发了秋冬季另一波感染的担忧。这也可能会给经济带来一些压力。</blockquote> Our assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.<blockquote>我们的评估是，我们已接近通胀周期的顶峰，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数投票成员都认同这一普遍情绪。随着消费者寻求更多交易，以及企业重新专注于锁定（如果不是扩大）市场份额，推动价格竞争和降低零售价格的力量必然会出现。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-weve-seen-the-peak-of-inflation-for-this-cycle-11626195636?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-weve-seen-the-peak-of-inflation-for-this-cycle-11626195636?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148011457","content_text":"Market share trumps pricing power.\n\nInflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.\nWhat will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?\nThere is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.\nCalculated risk\nBut it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.\nWhat June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.\nAgain, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.\nSo long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.\nHere’s why inflation has peaked\nFirst, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.\nSecond, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.\nThird, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.\nFourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.\nFinally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.\nOur assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":145770480,"gmtCreate":1626250145740,"gmtModify":1633928642727,"author":{"id":"3579262958727025","authorId":"3579262958727025","name":"CWL711","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/982058e5cb33e9069dbb2ca28d3fc46e","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3579262958727025","idStr":"3579262958727025"},"htmlText":"Ok, like please thank you","listText":"Ok, like please thank you","text":"Ok, like please thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145770480","repostId":1148011457,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148011457","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626226288,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148011457?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-14 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148011457","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Market share trumps pricing power.\n\nInflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for t","content":" Market share trumps pricing power. Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.<blockquote>市场份额胜过定价权。6月份通胀飙升，但目前已达到或接近本周期的峰值。</blockquote> What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?<blockquote>从现在开始，将决定消费者价格通胀路径的是企业如何回答一个关键问题：保护利润率和保护市场份额哪个更重要？</blockquote> There is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.<blockquote>毫无疑问，投入成本飙升。支付更高的工资来吸引新员工并留住现有员工确实会增加运营费用。在关键商品上的支出增加也是如此。因此，将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户的诱惑很大。</blockquote> Calculated risk<blockquote>计算风险</blockquote> But it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.<blockquote>但这也是一个经过计算的风险。人们总是担心长期客户会离开，转而与突然看到通过降价脱颖而出的机会的竞争对手做生意。如果说各种规模的公司都吸取了一个惨痛的教训，那就是一旦失去市场份额，想要夺回市场份额是极其困难和昂贵的。</blockquote> What June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.<blockquote>6月份消费者价格指数上涨0.9%告诉我们，大多数企业发现他们的运营费用增长太多、太快，根本无法吸收。他们不得不通过向消费者收取更多费用来弥补利润的萎缩。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8661c9e62b57cf95d3d61da103d77a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"710\">Again, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households&nbsp;are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.<blockquote>再说一次，这是一个经过计算的风险，而且可能是安全的…就目前而言！毕竟，家庭现金充裕，渴望消费，这意味着美国人此时不太可能对价格敏感。我们已经几十年没有见过这样的定价权了。过去12个月通胀率上涨5.4%，为2008年夏季以来最快涨幅，核心CPI大幅上涨4.5%，为1991年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote> So long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.<blockquote>只要定价权不威胁市场份额，通胀就会继续攀升。但历史表明，这种情况不会持续太久。价格竞争将在今年下半年重新出现，并在2022年更加激烈，这应该会缓解通胀压力。原因如下。</blockquote> Here’s why inflation has peaked<blockquote>这就是通货膨胀见顶的原因</blockquote> First, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.<blockquote>首先，随着华盛顿从财政刺激转向财政紧缩，我们预计家庭消费将相应缓解。</blockquote> Second, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.<blockquote>其次，过去一年消费者被压抑的需求大幅增加，为经济提供了巨大的前进动力。但随着需求得到满足，这种支出驱动将失去动力。</blockquote> Third, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.<blockquote>第三，毫无疑问，美联储正准备缩减对抵押贷款支持证券和美国国债的购买。无论是今年年底还是明年初开始缩减量化宽松，一旦他们这样做，借贷成本都会增加。这将减缓房屋销售和资本投资。</blockquote> Fourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.<blockquote>第四，上半年的供应链瓶颈开始缓解。货船正在以更快的速度卸货，尤其是在西海岸。物流的改善为大宗商品和成品价格的走低奠定了基础。</blockquote> Finally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.<blockquote>最后，我要说，这将是一些不情愿，尽管我们希望宣布战胜新冠肺炎病毒，但这样做还为时过早。新变种（Delta、Delta plus和现在的Lambda）在美国的出现，加上让70%至80%的美国人口完全接种疫苗的挑战（根据CDC的数据，截至今天，这一数字仅为48%），引发了秋冬季另一波感染的担忧。这也可能会给经济带来一些压力。</blockquote> Our assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.<blockquote>我们的评估是，我们已接近通胀周期的顶峰，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数投票成员都认同这一普遍情绪。随着消费者寻求更多交易，以及企业重新专注于锁定（如果不是扩大）市场份额，推动价格竞争和降低零售价格的力量必然会出现。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-07-14 09:31\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n Market share trumps pricing power. Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.<blockquote>市场份额胜过定价权。6月份通胀飙升，但目前已达到或接近本周期的峰值。</blockquote> What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?<blockquote>从现在开始，将决定消费者价格通胀路径的是企业如何回答一个关键问题：保护利润率和保护市场份额哪个更重要？</blockquote> There is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.<blockquote>毫无疑问，投入成本飙升。支付更高的工资来吸引新员工并留住现有员工确实会增加运营费用。在关键商品上的支出增加也是如此。因此，将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户的诱惑很大。</blockquote> Calculated risk<blockquote>计算风险</blockquote> But it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.<blockquote>但这也是一个经过计算的风险。人们总是担心长期客户会离开，转而与突然看到通过降价脱颖而出的机会的竞争对手做生意。如果说各种规模的公司都吸取了一个惨痛的教训，那就是一旦失去市场份额，想要夺回市场份额是极其困难和昂贵的。</blockquote> What June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.<blockquote>6月份消费者价格指数上涨0.9%告诉我们，大多数企业发现他们的运营费用增长太多、太快，根本无法吸收。他们不得不通过向消费者收取更多费用来弥补利润的萎缩。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8661c9e62b57cf95d3d61da103d77a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"710\">Again, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households&nbsp;are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.<blockquote>再说一次，这是一个经过计算的风险，而且可能是安全的…就目前而言！毕竟，家庭现金充裕，渴望消费，这意味着美国人此时不太可能对价格敏感。我们已经几十年没有见过这样的定价权了。过去12个月通胀率上涨5.4%，为2008年夏季以来最快涨幅，核心CPI大幅上涨4.5%，为1991年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote> So long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.<blockquote>只要定价权不威胁市场份额，通胀就会继续攀升。但历史表明，这种情况不会持续太久。价格竞争将在今年下半年重新出现，并在2022年更加激烈，这应该会缓解通胀压力。原因如下。</blockquote> Here’s why inflation has peaked<blockquote>这就是通货膨胀见顶的原因</blockquote> First, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.<blockquote>首先，随着华盛顿从财政刺激转向财政紧缩，我们预计家庭消费将相应缓解。</blockquote> Second, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.<blockquote>其次，过去一年消费者被压抑的需求大幅增加，为经济提供了巨大的前进动力。但随着需求得到满足，这种支出驱动将失去动力。</blockquote> Third, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.<blockquote>第三，毫无疑问，美联储正准备缩减对抵押贷款支持证券和美国国债的购买。无论是今年年底还是明年初开始缩减量化宽松，一旦他们这样做，借贷成本都会增加。这将减缓房屋销售和资本投资。</blockquote> Fourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.<blockquote>第四，上半年的供应链瓶颈开始缓解。货船正在以更快的速度卸货，尤其是在西海岸。物流的改善为大宗商品和成品价格的走低奠定了基础。</blockquote> Finally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.<blockquote>最后，我要说，这将是一些不情愿，尽管我们希望宣布战胜新冠肺炎病毒，但这样做还为时过早。新变种（Delta、Delta plus和现在的Lambda）在美国的出现，加上让70%至80%的美国人口完全接种疫苗的挑战（根据CDC的数据，截至今天，这一数字仅为48%），引发了秋冬季另一波感染的担忧。这也可能会给经济带来一些压力。</blockquote> Our assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.<blockquote>我们的评估是，我们已接近通胀周期的顶峰，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数投票成员都认同这一普遍情绪。随着消费者寻求更多交易，以及企业重新专注于锁定（如果不是扩大）市场份额，推动价格竞争和降低零售价格的力量必然会出现。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-weve-seen-the-peak-of-inflation-for-this-cycle-11626195636?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-weve-seen-the-peak-of-inflation-for-this-cycle-11626195636?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148011457","content_text":"Market share trumps pricing power.\n\nInflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.\nWhat will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?\nThere is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.\nCalculated risk\nBut it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.\nWhat June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.\nAgain, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.\nSo long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.\nHere’s why inflation has peaked\nFirst, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.\nSecond, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.\nThird, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.\nFourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.\nFinally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.\nOur assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":145784241,"gmtCreate":1626246386283,"gmtModify":1633928666248,"author":{"id":"3563436875655076","authorId":"3563436875655076","name":"james_l","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7960ea5c640db331ff2de0da32f6a611","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3563436875655076","idStr":"3563436875655076"},"htmlText":"Inflation came in higher than expected","listText":"Inflation came in higher than expected","text":"Inflation came in higher than expected","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145784241","repostId":1148011457,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148011457","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626226288,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148011457?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-14 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148011457","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Market share trumps pricing power.\n\nInflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for t","content":" Market share trumps pricing power. Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.<blockquote>市场份额胜过定价权。6月份通胀飙升，但目前已达到或接近本周期的峰值。</blockquote> What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?<blockquote>从现在开始，将决定消费者价格通胀路径的是企业如何回答一个关键问题：保护利润率和保护市场份额哪个更重要？</blockquote> There is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.<blockquote>毫无疑问，投入成本飙升。支付更高的工资来吸引新员工并留住现有员工确实会增加运营费用。在关键商品上的支出增加也是如此。因此，将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户的诱惑很大。</blockquote> Calculated risk<blockquote>计算风险</blockquote> But it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.<blockquote>但这也是一个经过计算的风险。人们总是担心长期客户会离开，转而与突然看到通过降价脱颖而出的机会的竞争对手做生意。如果说各种规模的公司都吸取了一个惨痛的教训，那就是一旦失去市场份额，想要夺回市场份额是极其困难和昂贵的。</blockquote> What June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.<blockquote>6月份消费者价格指数上涨0.9%告诉我们，大多数企业发现他们的运营费用增长太多、太快，根本无法吸收。他们不得不通过向消费者收取更多费用来弥补利润的萎缩。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8661c9e62b57cf95d3d61da103d77a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"710\">Again, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households&nbsp;are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.<blockquote>再说一次，这是一个经过计算的风险，而且可能是安全的…就目前而言！毕竟，家庭现金充裕，渴望消费，这意味着美国人此时不太可能对价格敏感。我们已经几十年没有见过这样的定价权了。过去12个月通胀率上涨5.4%，为2008年夏季以来最快涨幅，核心CPI大幅上涨4.5%，为1991年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote> So long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.<blockquote>只要定价权不威胁市场份额，通胀就会继续攀升。但历史表明，这种情况不会持续太久。价格竞争将在今年下半年重新出现，并在2022年更加激烈，这应该会缓解通胀压力。原因如下。</blockquote> Here’s why inflation has peaked<blockquote>这就是通货膨胀见顶的原因</blockquote> First, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.<blockquote>首先，随着华盛顿从财政刺激转向财政紧缩，我们预计家庭消费将相应缓解。</blockquote> Second, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.<blockquote>其次，过去一年消费者被压抑的需求大幅增加，为经济提供了巨大的前进动力。但随着需求得到满足，这种支出驱动将失去动力。</blockquote> Third, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.<blockquote>第三，毫无疑问，美联储正准备缩减对抵押贷款支持证券和美国国债的购买。无论是今年年底还是明年初开始缩减量化宽松，一旦他们这样做，借贷成本都会增加。这将减缓房屋销售和资本投资。</blockquote> Fourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.<blockquote>第四，上半年的供应链瓶颈开始缓解。货船正在以更快的速度卸货，尤其是在西海岸。物流的改善为大宗商品和成品价格的走低奠定了基础。</blockquote> Finally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.<blockquote>最后，我要说，这将是一些不情愿，尽管我们希望宣布战胜新冠肺炎病毒，但这样做还为时过早。新变种（Delta、Delta plus和现在的Lambda）在美国的出现，加上让70%至80%的美国人口完全接种疫苗的挑战（根据CDC的数据，截至今天，这一数字仅为48%），引发了秋冬季另一波感染的担忧。这也可能会给经济带来一些压力。</blockquote> Our assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.<blockquote>我们的评估是，我们已接近通胀周期的顶峰，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数投票成员都认同这一普遍情绪。随着消费者寻求更多交易，以及企业重新专注于锁定（如果不是扩大）市场份额，推动价格竞争和降低零售价格的力量必然会出现。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-07-14 09:31\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n Market share trumps pricing power. Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.<blockquote>市场份额胜过定价权。6月份通胀飙升，但目前已达到或接近本周期的峰值。</blockquote> What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?<blockquote>从现在开始，将决定消费者价格通胀路径的是企业如何回答一个关键问题：保护利润率和保护市场份额哪个更重要？</blockquote> There is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.<blockquote>毫无疑问，投入成本飙升。支付更高的工资来吸引新员工并留住现有员工确实会增加运营费用。在关键商品上的支出增加也是如此。因此，将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户的诱惑很大。</blockquote> Calculated risk<blockquote>计算风险</blockquote> But it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.<blockquote>但这也是一个经过计算的风险。人们总是担心长期客户会离开，转而与突然看到通过降价脱颖而出的机会的竞争对手做生意。如果说各种规模的公司都吸取了一个惨痛的教训，那就是一旦失去市场份额，想要夺回市场份额是极其困难和昂贵的。</blockquote> What June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.<blockquote>6月份消费者价格指数上涨0.9%告诉我们，大多数企业发现他们的运营费用增长太多、太快，根本无法吸收。他们不得不通过向消费者收取更多费用来弥补利润的萎缩。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8661c9e62b57cf95d3d61da103d77a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"710\">Again, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households&nbsp;are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.<blockquote>再说一次，这是一个经过计算的风险，而且可能是安全的…就目前而言！毕竟，家庭现金充裕，渴望消费，这意味着美国人此时不太可能对价格敏感。我们已经几十年没有见过这样的定价权了。过去12个月通胀率上涨5.4%，为2008年夏季以来最快涨幅，核心CPI大幅上涨4.5%，为1991年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote> So long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.<blockquote>只要定价权不威胁市场份额，通胀就会继续攀升。但历史表明，这种情况不会持续太久。价格竞争将在今年下半年重新出现，并在2022年更加激烈，这应该会缓解通胀压力。原因如下。</blockquote> Here’s why inflation has peaked<blockquote>这就是通货膨胀见顶的原因</blockquote> First, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.<blockquote>首先，随着华盛顿从财政刺激转向财政紧缩，我们预计家庭消费将相应缓解。</blockquote> Second, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.<blockquote>其次，过去一年消费者被压抑的需求大幅增加，为经济提供了巨大的前进动力。但随着需求得到满足，这种支出驱动将失去动力。</blockquote> Third, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.<blockquote>第三，毫无疑问，美联储正准备缩减对抵押贷款支持证券和美国国债的购买。无论是今年年底还是明年初开始缩减量化宽松，一旦他们这样做，借贷成本都会增加。这将减缓房屋销售和资本投资。</blockquote> Fourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.<blockquote>第四，上半年的供应链瓶颈开始缓解。货船正在以更快的速度卸货，尤其是在西海岸。物流的改善为大宗商品和成品价格的走低奠定了基础。</blockquote> Finally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.<blockquote>最后，我要说，这将是一些不情愿，尽管我们希望宣布战胜新冠肺炎病毒，但这样做还为时过早。新变种（Delta、Delta plus和现在的Lambda）在美国的出现，加上让70%至80%的美国人口完全接种疫苗的挑战（根据CDC的数据，截至今天，这一数字仅为48%），引发了秋冬季另一波感染的担忧。这也可能会给经济带来一些压力。</blockquote> Our assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.<blockquote>我们的评估是，我们已接近通胀周期的顶峰，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数投票成员都认同这一普遍情绪。随着消费者寻求更多交易，以及企业重新专注于锁定（如果不是扩大）市场份额，推动价格竞争和降低零售价格的力量必然会出现。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-weve-seen-the-peak-of-inflation-for-this-cycle-11626195636?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-weve-seen-the-peak-of-inflation-for-this-cycle-11626195636?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148011457","content_text":"Market share trumps pricing power.\n\nInflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.\nWhat will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?\nThere is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.\nCalculated risk\nBut it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.\nWhat June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.\nAgain, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.\nSo long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.\nHere’s why inflation has peaked\nFirst, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.\nSecond, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.\nThird, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.\nFourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.\nFinally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.\nOur assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":145785795,"gmtCreate":1626246334017,"gmtModify":1626246334017,"author":{"id":"3577580366301047","authorId":"3577580366301047","name":"Lifestyle","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4d6b8a93bb67c48d769484626037d6e","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3577580366301047","idStr":"3577580366301047"},"htmlText":"Inflation fears is history and market has priced in😉","listText":"Inflation fears is history and market has priced in😉","text":"Inflation fears is history and market has priced in😉","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145785795","repostId":1148011457,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148011457","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626226288,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148011457?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-14 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148011457","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Market share trumps pricing power.\n\nInflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for t","content":" Market share trumps pricing power. Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.<blockquote>市场份额胜过定价权。6月份通胀飙升，但目前已达到或接近本周期的峰值。</blockquote> What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?<blockquote>从现在开始，将决定消费者价格通胀路径的是企业如何回答一个关键问题：保护利润率和保护市场份额哪个更重要？</blockquote> There is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.<blockquote>毫无疑问，投入成本飙升。支付更高的工资来吸引新员工并留住现有员工确实会增加运营费用。在关键商品上的支出增加也是如此。因此，将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户的诱惑很大。</blockquote> Calculated risk<blockquote>计算风险</blockquote> But it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.<blockquote>但这也是一个经过计算的风险。人们总是担心长期客户会离开，转而与突然看到通过降价脱颖而出的机会的竞争对手做生意。如果说各种规模的公司都吸取了一个惨痛的教训，那就是一旦失去市场份额，想要夺回市场份额是极其困难和昂贵的。</blockquote> What June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.<blockquote>6月份消费者价格指数上涨0.9%告诉我们，大多数企业发现他们的运营费用增长太多、太快，根本无法吸收。他们不得不通过向消费者收取更多费用来弥补利润的萎缩。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8661c9e62b57cf95d3d61da103d77a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"710\">Again, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households&nbsp;are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.<blockquote>再说一次，这是一个经过计算的风险，而且可能是安全的…就目前而言！毕竟，家庭现金充裕，渴望消费，这意味着美国人此时不太可能对价格敏感。我们已经几十年没有见过这样的定价权了。过去12个月通胀率上涨5.4%，为2008年夏季以来最快涨幅，核心CPI大幅上涨4.5%，为1991年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote> So long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.<blockquote>只要定价权不威胁市场份额，通胀就会继续攀升。但历史表明，这种情况不会持续太久。价格竞争将在今年下半年重新出现，并在2022年更加激烈，这应该会缓解通胀压力。原因如下。</blockquote> Here’s why inflation has peaked<blockquote>这就是通货膨胀见顶的原因</blockquote> First, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.<blockquote>首先，随着华盛顿从财政刺激转向财政紧缩，我们预计家庭消费将相应缓解。</blockquote> Second, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.<blockquote>其次，过去一年消费者被压抑的需求大幅增加，为经济提供了巨大的前进动力。但随着需求得到满足，这种支出驱动将失去动力。</blockquote> Third, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.<blockquote>第三，毫无疑问，美联储正准备缩减对抵押贷款支持证券和美国国债的购买。无论是今年年底还是明年初开始缩减量化宽松，一旦他们这样做，借贷成本都会增加。这将减缓房屋销售和资本投资。</blockquote> Fourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.<blockquote>第四，上半年的供应链瓶颈开始缓解。货船正在以更快的速度卸货，尤其是在西海岸。物流的改善为大宗商品和成品价格的走低奠定了基础。</blockquote> Finally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.<blockquote>最后，我要说，这将是一些不情愿，尽管我们希望宣布战胜新冠肺炎病毒，但这样做还为时过早。新变种（Delta、Delta plus和现在的Lambda）在美国的出现，加上让70%至80%的美国人口完全接种疫苗的挑战（根据CDC的数据，截至今天，这一数字仅为48%），引发了秋冬季另一波感染的担忧。这也可能会给经济带来一些压力。</blockquote> Our assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.<blockquote>我们的评估是，我们已接近通胀周期的顶峰，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数投票成员都认同这一普遍情绪。随着消费者寻求更多交易，以及企业重新专注于锁定（如果不是扩大）市场份额，推动价格竞争和降低零售价格的力量必然会出现。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-07-14 09:31\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n Market share trumps pricing power. Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.<blockquote>市场份额胜过定价权。6月份通胀飙升，但目前已达到或接近本周期的峰值。</blockquote> What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?<blockquote>从现在开始，将决定消费者价格通胀路径的是企业如何回答一个关键问题：保护利润率和保护市场份额哪个更重要？</blockquote> There is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.<blockquote>毫无疑问，投入成本飙升。支付更高的工资来吸引新员工并留住现有员工确实会增加运营费用。在关键商品上的支出增加也是如此。因此，将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户的诱惑很大。</blockquote> Calculated risk<blockquote>计算风险</blockquote> But it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.<blockquote>但这也是一个经过计算的风险。人们总是担心长期客户会离开，转而与突然看到通过降价脱颖而出的机会的竞争对手做生意。如果说各种规模的公司都吸取了一个惨痛的教训，那就是一旦失去市场份额，想要夺回市场份额是极其困难和昂贵的。</blockquote> What June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.<blockquote>6月份消费者价格指数上涨0.9%告诉我们，大多数企业发现他们的运营费用增长太多、太快，根本无法吸收。他们不得不通过向消费者收取更多费用来弥补利润的萎缩。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8661c9e62b57cf95d3d61da103d77a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"710\">Again, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households&nbsp;are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.<blockquote>再说一次，这是一个经过计算的风险，而且可能是安全的…就目前而言！毕竟，家庭现金充裕，渴望消费，这意味着美国人此时不太可能对价格敏感。我们已经几十年没有见过这样的定价权了。过去12个月通胀率上涨5.4%，为2008年夏季以来最快涨幅，核心CPI大幅上涨4.5%，为1991年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote> So long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.<blockquote>只要定价权不威胁市场份额，通胀就会继续攀升。但历史表明，这种情况不会持续太久。价格竞争将在今年下半年重新出现，并在2022年更加激烈，这应该会缓解通胀压力。原因如下。</blockquote> Here’s why inflation has peaked<blockquote>这就是通货膨胀见顶的原因</blockquote> First, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.<blockquote>首先，随着华盛顿从财政刺激转向财政紧缩，我们预计家庭消费将相应缓解。</blockquote> Second, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.<blockquote>其次，过去一年消费者被压抑的需求大幅增加，为经济提供了巨大的前进动力。但随着需求得到满足，这种支出驱动将失去动力。</blockquote> Third, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.<blockquote>第三，毫无疑问，美联储正准备缩减对抵押贷款支持证券和美国国债的购买。无论是今年年底还是明年初开始缩减量化宽松，一旦他们这样做，借贷成本都会增加。这将减缓房屋销售和资本投资。</blockquote> Fourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.<blockquote>第四，上半年的供应链瓶颈开始缓解。货船正在以更快的速度卸货，尤其是在西海岸。物流的改善为大宗商品和成品价格的走低奠定了基础。</blockquote> Finally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.<blockquote>最后，我要说，这将是一些不情愿，尽管我们希望宣布战胜新冠肺炎病毒，但这样做还为时过早。新变种（Delta、Delta plus和现在的Lambda）在美国的出现，加上让70%至80%的美国人口完全接种疫苗的挑战（根据CDC的数据，截至今天，这一数字仅为48%），引发了秋冬季另一波感染的担忧。这也可能会给经济带来一些压力。</blockquote> Our assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.<blockquote>我们的评估是，我们已接近通胀周期的顶峰，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数投票成员都认同这一普遍情绪。随着消费者寻求更多交易，以及企业重新专注于锁定（如果不是扩大）市场份额，推动价格竞争和降低零售价格的力量必然会出现。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-weve-seen-the-peak-of-inflation-for-this-cycle-11626195636?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-weve-seen-the-peak-of-inflation-for-this-cycle-11626195636?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148011457","content_text":"Market share trumps pricing power.\n\nInflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.\nWhat will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?\nThere is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.\nCalculated risk\nBut it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.\nWhat June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.\nAgain, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.\nSo long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.\nHere’s why inflation has peaked\nFirst, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.\nSecond, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.\nThird, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.\nFourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.\nFinally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.\nOur assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5216069,"gmtCreate":1626251875285,"gmtModify":1635229506980,"authorId":3579082097230100,"author":{"id":3579082097230100,"idStr":"3579082097230100","authorId":3579082097230100,"name":"Gaga71","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02afa88b95dc30f4a60767c18f9e2f39","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":145785795,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"So no risk?","text":"So no risk?","html":"So no risk?"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":145782027,"gmtCreate":1626246206269,"gmtModify":1633928667488,"author":{"id":"3572592743475560","authorId":"3572592743475560","name":"Asycroft","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3572592743475560","idStr":"3572592743475560"},"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145782027","repostId":1148011457,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148011457","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626226288,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148011457?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-14 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148011457","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Market share trumps pricing power.\n\nInflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for t","content":" Market share trumps pricing power. Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.<blockquote>市场份额胜过定价权。6月份通胀飙升，但目前已达到或接近本周期的峰值。</blockquote> What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?<blockquote>从现在开始，将决定消费者价格通胀路径的是企业如何回答一个关键问题：保护利润率和保护市场份额哪个更重要？</blockquote> There is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.<blockquote>毫无疑问，投入成本飙升。支付更高的工资来吸引新员工并留住现有员工确实会增加运营费用。在关键商品上的支出增加也是如此。因此，将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户的诱惑很大。</blockquote> Calculated risk<blockquote>计算风险</blockquote> But it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.<blockquote>但这也是一个经过计算的风险。人们总是担心长期客户会离开，转而与突然看到通过降价脱颖而出的机会的竞争对手做生意。如果说各种规模的公司都吸取了一个惨痛的教训，那就是一旦失去市场份额，想要夺回市场份额是极其困难和昂贵的。</blockquote> What June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.<blockquote>6月份消费者价格指数上涨0.9%告诉我们，大多数企业发现他们的运营费用增长太多、太快，根本无法吸收。他们不得不通过向消费者收取更多费用来弥补利润的萎缩。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8661c9e62b57cf95d3d61da103d77a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"710\">Again, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households&nbsp;are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.<blockquote>再说一次，这是一个经过计算的风险，而且可能是安全的…就目前而言！毕竟，家庭现金充裕，渴望消费，这意味着美国人此时不太可能对价格敏感。我们已经几十年没有见过这样的定价权了。过去12个月通胀率上涨5.4%，为2008年夏季以来最快涨幅，核心CPI大幅上涨4.5%，为1991年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote> So long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.<blockquote>只要定价权不威胁市场份额，通胀就会继续攀升。但历史表明，这种情况不会持续太久。价格竞争将在今年下半年重新出现，并在2022年更加激烈，这应该会缓解通胀压力。原因如下。</blockquote> Here’s why inflation has peaked<blockquote>这就是通货膨胀见顶的原因</blockquote> First, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.<blockquote>首先，随着华盛顿从财政刺激转向财政紧缩，我们预计家庭消费将相应缓解。</blockquote> Second, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.<blockquote>其次，过去一年消费者被压抑的需求大幅增加，为经济提供了巨大的前进动力。但随着需求得到满足，这种支出驱动将失去动力。</blockquote> Third, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.<blockquote>第三，毫无疑问，美联储正准备缩减对抵押贷款支持证券和美国国债的购买。无论是今年年底还是明年初开始缩减量化宽松，一旦他们这样做，借贷成本都会增加。这将减缓房屋销售和资本投资。</blockquote> Fourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.<blockquote>第四，上半年的供应链瓶颈开始缓解。货船正在以更快的速度卸货，尤其是在西海岸。物流的改善为大宗商品和成品价格的走低奠定了基础。</blockquote> Finally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.<blockquote>最后，我要说，这将是一些不情愿，尽管我们希望宣布战胜新冠肺炎病毒，但这样做还为时过早。新变种（Delta、Delta plus和现在的Lambda）在美国的出现，加上让70%至80%的美国人口完全接种疫苗的挑战（根据CDC的数据，截至今天，这一数字仅为48%），引发了秋冬季另一波感染的担忧。这也可能会给经济带来一些压力。</blockquote> Our assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.<blockquote>我们的评估是，我们已接近通胀周期的顶峰，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数投票成员都认同这一普遍情绪。随着消费者寻求更多交易，以及企业重新专注于锁定（如果不是扩大）市场份额，推动价格竞争和降低零售价格的力量必然会出现。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-07-14 09:31\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n Market share trumps pricing power. Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.<blockquote>市场份额胜过定价权。6月份通胀飙升，但目前已达到或接近本周期的峰值。</blockquote> What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?<blockquote>从现在开始，将决定消费者价格通胀路径的是企业如何回答一个关键问题：保护利润率和保护市场份额哪个更重要？</blockquote> There is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.<blockquote>毫无疑问，投入成本飙升。支付更高的工资来吸引新员工并留住现有员工确实会增加运营费用。在关键商品上的支出增加也是如此。因此，将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户的诱惑很大。</blockquote> Calculated risk<blockquote>计算风险</blockquote> But it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.<blockquote>但这也是一个经过计算的风险。人们总是担心长期客户会离开，转而与突然看到通过降价脱颖而出的机会的竞争对手做生意。如果说各种规模的公司都吸取了一个惨痛的教训，那就是一旦失去市场份额，想要夺回市场份额是极其困难和昂贵的。</blockquote> What June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.<blockquote>6月份消费者价格指数上涨0.9%告诉我们，大多数企业发现他们的运营费用增长太多、太快，根本无法吸收。他们不得不通过向消费者收取更多费用来弥补利润的萎缩。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8661c9e62b57cf95d3d61da103d77a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"710\">Again, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households&nbsp;are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.<blockquote>再说一次，这是一个经过计算的风险，而且可能是安全的…就目前而言！毕竟，家庭现金充裕，渴望消费，这意味着美国人此时不太可能对价格敏感。我们已经几十年没有见过这样的定价权了。过去12个月通胀率上涨5.4%，为2008年夏季以来最快涨幅，核心CPI大幅上涨4.5%，为1991年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote> So long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.<blockquote>只要定价权不威胁市场份额，通胀就会继续攀升。但历史表明，这种情况不会持续太久。价格竞争将在今年下半年重新出现，并在2022年更加激烈，这应该会缓解通胀压力。原因如下。</blockquote> Here’s why inflation has peaked<blockquote>这就是通货膨胀见顶的原因</blockquote> First, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.<blockquote>首先，随着华盛顿从财政刺激转向财政紧缩，我们预计家庭消费将相应缓解。</blockquote> Second, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.<blockquote>其次，过去一年消费者被压抑的需求大幅增加，为经济提供了巨大的前进动力。但随着需求得到满足，这种支出驱动将失去动力。</blockquote> Third, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.<blockquote>第三，毫无疑问，美联储正准备缩减对抵押贷款支持证券和美国国债的购买。无论是今年年底还是明年初开始缩减量化宽松，一旦他们这样做，借贷成本都会增加。这将减缓房屋销售和资本投资。</blockquote> Fourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.<blockquote>第四，上半年的供应链瓶颈开始缓解。货船正在以更快的速度卸货，尤其是在西海岸。物流的改善为大宗商品和成品价格的走低奠定了基础。</blockquote> Finally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.<blockquote>最后，我要说，这将是一些不情愿，尽管我们希望宣布战胜新冠肺炎病毒，但这样做还为时过早。新变种（Delta、Delta plus和现在的Lambda）在美国的出现，加上让70%至80%的美国人口完全接种疫苗的挑战（根据CDC的数据，截至今天，这一数字仅为48%），引发了秋冬季另一波感染的担忧。这也可能会给经济带来一些压力。</blockquote> Our assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.<blockquote>我们的评估是，我们已接近通胀周期的顶峰，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数投票成员都认同这一普遍情绪。随着消费者寻求更多交易，以及企业重新专注于锁定（如果不是扩大）市场份额，推动价格竞争和降低零售价格的力量必然会出现。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-weve-seen-the-peak-of-inflation-for-this-cycle-11626195636?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-weve-seen-the-peak-of-inflation-for-this-cycle-11626195636?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148011457","content_text":"Market share trumps pricing power.\n\nInflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.\nWhat will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?\nThere is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.\nCalculated risk\nBut it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.\nWhat June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.\nAgain, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.\nSo long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.\nHere’s why inflation has peaked\nFirst, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.\nSecond, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.\nThird, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.\nFourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.\nFinally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.\nOur assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5215400,"gmtCreate":1626246389656,"gmtModify":1635229550071,"authorId":3577580366301047,"author":{"id":3577580366301047,"idStr":"3577580366301047","authorId":3577580366301047,"name":"Lifestyle","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4d6b8a93bb67c48d769484626037d6e","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":145782027,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Yeah","text":"Yeah","html":"Yeah"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":145797896,"gmtCreate":1626243901715,"gmtModify":1633928679628,"author":{"id":"3583974841960176","authorId":"3583974841960176","name":"CIG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c2077e2370e1ffcaca7e29b875be2be","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3583974841960176","idStr":"3583974841960176"},"htmlText":"Good points, not scared by the percentage.","listText":"Good points, not scared by the percentage.","text":"Good points, not scared by the percentage.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145797896","repostId":1148011457,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148011457","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626226288,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148011457?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-14 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148011457","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Market share trumps pricing power.\n\nInflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for t","content":" Market share trumps pricing power. Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.<blockquote>市场份额胜过定价权。6月份通胀飙升，但目前已达到或接近本周期的峰值。</blockquote> What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?<blockquote>从现在开始，将决定消费者价格通胀路径的是企业如何回答一个关键问题：保护利润率和保护市场份额哪个更重要？</blockquote> There is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.<blockquote>毫无疑问，投入成本飙升。支付更高的工资来吸引新员工并留住现有员工确实会增加运营费用。在关键商品上的支出增加也是如此。因此，将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户的诱惑很大。</blockquote> Calculated risk<blockquote>计算风险</blockquote> But it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.<blockquote>但这也是一个经过计算的风险。人们总是担心长期客户会离开，转而与突然看到通过降价脱颖而出的机会的竞争对手做生意。如果说各种规模的公司都吸取了一个惨痛的教训，那就是一旦失去市场份额，想要夺回市场份额是极其困难和昂贵的。</blockquote> What June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.<blockquote>6月份消费者价格指数上涨0.9%告诉我们，大多数企业发现他们的运营费用增长太多、太快，根本无法吸收。他们不得不通过向消费者收取更多费用来弥补利润的萎缩。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8661c9e62b57cf95d3d61da103d77a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"710\">Again, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households&nbsp;are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.<blockquote>再说一次，这是一个经过计算的风险，而且可能是安全的…就目前而言！毕竟，家庭现金充裕，渴望消费，这意味着美国人此时不太可能对价格敏感。我们已经几十年没有见过这样的定价权了。过去12个月通胀率上涨5.4%，为2008年夏季以来最快涨幅，核心CPI大幅上涨4.5%，为1991年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote> So long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.<blockquote>只要定价权不威胁市场份额，通胀就会继续攀升。但历史表明，这种情况不会持续太久。价格竞争将在今年下半年重新出现，并在2022年更加激烈，这应该会缓解通胀压力。原因如下。</blockquote> Here’s why inflation has peaked<blockquote>这就是通货膨胀见顶的原因</blockquote> First, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.<blockquote>首先，随着华盛顿从财政刺激转向财政紧缩，我们预计家庭消费将相应缓解。</blockquote> Second, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.<blockquote>其次，过去一年消费者被压抑的需求大幅增加，为经济提供了巨大的前进动力。但随着需求得到满足，这种支出驱动将失去动力。</blockquote> Third, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.<blockquote>第三，毫无疑问，美联储正准备缩减对抵押贷款支持证券和美国国债的购买。无论是今年年底还是明年初开始缩减量化宽松，一旦他们这样做，借贷成本都会增加。这将减缓房屋销售和资本投资。</blockquote> Fourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.<blockquote>第四，上半年的供应链瓶颈开始缓解。货船正在以更快的速度卸货，尤其是在西海岸。物流的改善为大宗商品和成品价格的走低奠定了基础。</blockquote> Finally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.<blockquote>最后，我要说，这将是一些不情愿，尽管我们希望宣布战胜新冠肺炎病毒，但这样做还为时过早。新变种（Delta、Delta plus和现在的Lambda）在美国的出现，加上让70%至80%的美国人口完全接种疫苗的挑战（根据CDC的数据，截至今天，这一数字仅为48%），引发了秋冬季另一波感染的担忧。这也可能会给经济带来一些压力。</blockquote> Our assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.<blockquote>我们的评估是，我们已接近通胀周期的顶峰，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数投票成员都认同这一普遍情绪。随着消费者寻求更多交易，以及企业重新专注于锁定（如果不是扩大）市场份额，推动价格竞争和降低零售价格的力量必然会出现。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-07-14 09:31\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n Market share trumps pricing power. Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.<blockquote>市场份额胜过定价权。6月份通胀飙升，但目前已达到或接近本周期的峰值。</blockquote> What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?<blockquote>从现在开始，将决定消费者价格通胀路径的是企业如何回答一个关键问题：保护利润率和保护市场份额哪个更重要？</blockquote> There is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.<blockquote>毫无疑问，投入成本飙升。支付更高的工资来吸引新员工并留住现有员工确实会增加运营费用。在关键商品上的支出增加也是如此。因此，将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户的诱惑很大。</blockquote> Calculated risk<blockquote>计算风险</blockquote> But it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.<blockquote>但这也是一个经过计算的风险。人们总是担心长期客户会离开，转而与突然看到通过降价脱颖而出的机会的竞争对手做生意。如果说各种规模的公司都吸取了一个惨痛的教训，那就是一旦失去市场份额，想要夺回市场份额是极其困难和昂贵的。</blockquote> What June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.<blockquote>6月份消费者价格指数上涨0.9%告诉我们，大多数企业发现他们的运营费用增长太多、太快，根本无法吸收。他们不得不通过向消费者收取更多费用来弥补利润的萎缩。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8661c9e62b57cf95d3d61da103d77a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"710\">Again, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households&nbsp;are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.<blockquote>再说一次，这是一个经过计算的风险，而且可能是安全的…就目前而言！毕竟，家庭现金充裕，渴望消费，这意味着美国人此时不太可能对价格敏感。我们已经几十年没有见过这样的定价权了。过去12个月通胀率上涨5.4%，为2008年夏季以来最快涨幅，核心CPI大幅上涨4.5%，为1991年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote> So long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.<blockquote>只要定价权不威胁市场份额，通胀就会继续攀升。但历史表明，这种情况不会持续太久。价格竞争将在今年下半年重新出现，并在2022年更加激烈，这应该会缓解通胀压力。原因如下。</blockquote> Here’s why inflation has peaked<blockquote>这就是通货膨胀见顶的原因</blockquote> First, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.<blockquote>首先，随着华盛顿从财政刺激转向财政紧缩，我们预计家庭消费将相应缓解。</blockquote> Second, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.<blockquote>其次，过去一年消费者被压抑的需求大幅增加，为经济提供了巨大的前进动力。但随着需求得到满足，这种支出驱动将失去动力。</blockquote> Third, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.<blockquote>第三，毫无疑问，美联储正准备缩减对抵押贷款支持证券和美国国债的购买。无论是今年年底还是明年初开始缩减量化宽松，一旦他们这样做，借贷成本都会增加。这将减缓房屋销售和资本投资。</blockquote> Fourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.<blockquote>第四，上半年的供应链瓶颈开始缓解。货船正在以更快的速度卸货，尤其是在西海岸。物流的改善为大宗商品和成品价格的走低奠定了基础。</blockquote> Finally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.<blockquote>最后，我要说，这将是一些不情愿，尽管我们希望宣布战胜新冠肺炎病毒，但这样做还为时过早。新变种（Delta、Delta plus和现在的Lambda）在美国的出现，加上让70%至80%的美国人口完全接种疫苗的挑战（根据CDC的数据，截至今天，这一数字仅为48%），引发了秋冬季另一波感染的担忧。这也可能会给经济带来一些压力。</blockquote> Our assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.<blockquote>我们的评估是，我们已接近通胀周期的顶峰，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数投票成员都认同这一普遍情绪。随着消费者寻求更多交易，以及企业重新专注于锁定（如果不是扩大）市场份额，推动价格竞争和降低零售价格的力量必然会出现。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-weve-seen-the-peak-of-inflation-for-this-cycle-11626195636?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-weve-seen-the-peak-of-inflation-for-this-cycle-11626195636?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148011457","content_text":"Market share trumps pricing power.\n\nInflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.\nWhat will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?\nThere is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.\nCalculated risk\nBut it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.\nWhat June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.\nAgain, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.\nSo long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.\nHere’s why inflation has peaked\nFirst, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.\nSecond, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.\nThird, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.\nFourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.\nFinally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.\nOur assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":145796490,"gmtCreate":1626243680510,"gmtModify":1633928681836,"author":{"id":"3572502301692301","authorId":"3572502301692301","name":"23a2d027","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3572502301692301","idStr":"3572502301692301"},"htmlText":"o o","listText":"o o","text":"o o","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145796490","repostId":1148011457,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148011457","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626226288,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148011457?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-14 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148011457","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Market share trumps pricing power.\n\nInflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for t","content":" Market share trumps pricing power. Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.<blockquote>市场份额胜过定价权。6月份通胀飙升，但目前已达到或接近本周期的峰值。</blockquote> What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?<blockquote>从现在开始，将决定消费者价格通胀路径的是企业如何回答一个关键问题：保护利润率和保护市场份额哪个更重要？</blockquote> There is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.<blockquote>毫无疑问，投入成本飙升。支付更高的工资来吸引新员工并留住现有员工确实会增加运营费用。在关键商品上的支出增加也是如此。因此，将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户的诱惑很大。</blockquote> Calculated risk<blockquote>计算风险</blockquote> But it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.<blockquote>但这也是一个经过计算的风险。人们总是担心长期客户会离开，转而与突然看到通过降价脱颖而出的机会的竞争对手做生意。如果说各种规模的公司都吸取了一个惨痛的教训，那就是一旦失去市场份额，想要夺回市场份额是极其困难和昂贵的。</blockquote> What June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.<blockquote>6月份消费者价格指数上涨0.9%告诉我们，大多数企业发现他们的运营费用增长太多、太快，根本无法吸收。他们不得不通过向消费者收取更多费用来弥补利润的萎缩。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8661c9e62b57cf95d3d61da103d77a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"710\">Again, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households&nbsp;are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.<blockquote>再说一次，这是一个经过计算的风险，而且可能是安全的…就目前而言！毕竟，家庭现金充裕，渴望消费，这意味着美国人此时不太可能对价格敏感。我们已经几十年没有见过这样的定价权了。过去12个月通胀率上涨5.4%，为2008年夏季以来最快涨幅，核心CPI大幅上涨4.5%，为1991年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote> So long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.<blockquote>只要定价权不威胁市场份额，通胀就会继续攀升。但历史表明，这种情况不会持续太久。价格竞争将在今年下半年重新出现，并在2022年更加激烈，这应该会缓解通胀压力。原因如下。</blockquote> Here’s why inflation has peaked<blockquote>这就是通货膨胀见顶的原因</blockquote> First, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.<blockquote>首先，随着华盛顿从财政刺激转向财政紧缩，我们预计家庭消费将相应缓解。</blockquote> Second, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.<blockquote>其次，过去一年消费者被压抑的需求大幅增加，为经济提供了巨大的前进动力。但随着需求得到满足，这种支出驱动将失去动力。</blockquote> Third, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.<blockquote>第三，毫无疑问，美联储正准备缩减对抵押贷款支持证券和美国国债的购买。无论是今年年底还是明年初开始缩减量化宽松，一旦他们这样做，借贷成本都会增加。这将减缓房屋销售和资本投资。</blockquote> Fourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.<blockquote>第四，上半年的供应链瓶颈开始缓解。货船正在以更快的速度卸货，尤其是在西海岸。物流的改善为大宗商品和成品价格的走低奠定了基础。</blockquote> Finally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.<blockquote>最后，我要说，这将是一些不情愿，尽管我们希望宣布战胜新冠肺炎病毒，但这样做还为时过早。新变种（Delta、Delta plus和现在的Lambda）在美国的出现，加上让70%至80%的美国人口完全接种疫苗的挑战（根据CDC的数据，截至今天，这一数字仅为48%），引发了秋冬季另一波感染的担忧。这也可能会给经济带来一些压力。</blockquote> Our assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.<blockquote>我们的评估是，我们已接近通胀周期的顶峰，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数投票成员都认同这一普遍情绪。随着消费者寻求更多交易，以及企业重新专注于锁定（如果不是扩大）市场份额，推动价格竞争和降低零售价格的力量必然会出现。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-07-14 09:31\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n Market share trumps pricing power. Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.<blockquote>市场份额胜过定价权。6月份通胀飙升，但目前已达到或接近本周期的峰值。</blockquote> What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?<blockquote>从现在开始，将决定消费者价格通胀路径的是企业如何回答一个关键问题：保护利润率和保护市场份额哪个更重要？</blockquote> There is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.<blockquote>毫无疑问，投入成本飙升。支付更高的工资来吸引新员工并留住现有员工确实会增加运营费用。在关键商品上的支出增加也是如此。因此，将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户的诱惑很大。</blockquote> Calculated risk<blockquote>计算风险</blockquote> But it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.<blockquote>但这也是一个经过计算的风险。人们总是担心长期客户会离开，转而与突然看到通过降价脱颖而出的机会的竞争对手做生意。如果说各种规模的公司都吸取了一个惨痛的教训，那就是一旦失去市场份额，想要夺回市场份额是极其困难和昂贵的。</blockquote> What June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.<blockquote>6月份消费者价格指数上涨0.9%告诉我们，大多数企业发现他们的运营费用增长太多、太快，根本无法吸收。他们不得不通过向消费者收取更多费用来弥补利润的萎缩。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8661c9e62b57cf95d3d61da103d77a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"710\">Again, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households&nbsp;are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.<blockquote>再说一次，这是一个经过计算的风险，而且可能是安全的…就目前而言！毕竟，家庭现金充裕，渴望消费，这意味着美国人此时不太可能对价格敏感。我们已经几十年没有见过这样的定价权了。过去12个月通胀率上涨5.4%，为2008年夏季以来最快涨幅，核心CPI大幅上涨4.5%，为1991年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote> So long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.<blockquote>只要定价权不威胁市场份额，通胀就会继续攀升。但历史表明，这种情况不会持续太久。价格竞争将在今年下半年重新出现，并在2022年更加激烈，这应该会缓解通胀压力。原因如下。</blockquote> Here’s why inflation has peaked<blockquote>这就是通货膨胀见顶的原因</blockquote> First, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.<blockquote>首先，随着华盛顿从财政刺激转向财政紧缩，我们预计家庭消费将相应缓解。</blockquote> Second, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.<blockquote>其次，过去一年消费者被压抑的需求大幅增加，为经济提供了巨大的前进动力。但随着需求得到满足，这种支出驱动将失去动力。</blockquote> Third, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.<blockquote>第三，毫无疑问，美联储正准备缩减对抵押贷款支持证券和美国国债的购买。无论是今年年底还是明年初开始缩减量化宽松，一旦他们这样做，借贷成本都会增加。这将减缓房屋销售和资本投资。</blockquote> Fourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.<blockquote>第四，上半年的供应链瓶颈开始缓解。货船正在以更快的速度卸货，尤其是在西海岸。物流的改善为大宗商品和成品价格的走低奠定了基础。</blockquote> Finally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.<blockquote>最后，我要说，这将是一些不情愿，尽管我们希望宣布战胜新冠肺炎病毒，但这样做还为时过早。新变种（Delta、Delta plus和现在的Lambda）在美国的出现，加上让70%至80%的美国人口完全接种疫苗的挑战（根据CDC的数据，截至今天，这一数字仅为48%），引发了秋冬季另一波感染的担忧。这也可能会给经济带来一些压力。</blockquote> Our assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.<blockquote>我们的评估是，我们已接近通胀周期的顶峰，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数投票成员都认同这一普遍情绪。随着消费者寻求更多交易，以及企业重新专注于锁定（如果不是扩大）市场份额，推动价格竞争和降低零售价格的力量必然会出现。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-weve-seen-the-peak-of-inflation-for-this-cycle-11626195636?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-weve-seen-the-peak-of-inflation-for-this-cycle-11626195636?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148011457","content_text":"Market share trumps pricing power.\n\nInflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.\nWhat will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?\nThere is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.\nCalculated risk\nBut it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.\nWhat June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.\nAgain, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.\nSo long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.\nHere’s why inflation has peaked\nFirst, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.\nSecond, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.\nThird, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.\nFourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.\nFinally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.\nOur assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5215261,"gmtCreate":1626244425994,"gmtModify":1635229559601,"authorId":3579759306103275,"author":{"id":3579759306103275,"idStr":"3579759306103275","authorId":3579759306103275,"name":"hpt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/986ef7c951112f7be64cfd5d6c1672c5","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":145796490,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","html":"Pls like"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":145477276,"gmtCreate":1626242363195,"gmtModify":1633928689277,"author":{"id":"3577530901336464","authorId":"3577530901336464","name":"dt1","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3577530901336464","idStr":"3577530901336464"},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145477276","repostId":1148011457,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148011457","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626226288,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148011457?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-14 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148011457","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Market share trumps pricing power.\n\nInflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for t","content":" Market share trumps pricing power. Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.<blockquote>市场份额胜过定价权。6月份通胀飙升，但目前已达到或接近本周期的峰值。</blockquote> What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?<blockquote>从现在开始，将决定消费者价格通胀路径的是企业如何回答一个关键问题：保护利润率和保护市场份额哪个更重要？</blockquote> There is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.<blockquote>毫无疑问，投入成本飙升。支付更高的工资来吸引新员工并留住现有员工确实会增加运营费用。在关键商品上的支出增加也是如此。因此，将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户的诱惑很大。</blockquote> Calculated risk<blockquote>计算风险</blockquote> But it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.<blockquote>但这也是一个经过计算的风险。人们总是担心长期客户会离开，转而与突然看到通过降价脱颖而出的机会的竞争对手做生意。如果说各种规模的公司都吸取了一个惨痛的教训，那就是一旦失去市场份额，想要夺回市场份额是极其困难和昂贵的。</blockquote> What June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.<blockquote>6月份消费者价格指数上涨0.9%告诉我们，大多数企业发现他们的运营费用增长太多、太快，根本无法吸收。他们不得不通过向消费者收取更多费用来弥补利润的萎缩。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8661c9e62b57cf95d3d61da103d77a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"710\">Again, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households&nbsp;are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.<blockquote>再说一次，这是一个经过计算的风险，而且可能是安全的…就目前而言！毕竟，家庭现金充裕，渴望消费，这意味着美国人此时不太可能对价格敏感。我们已经几十年没有见过这样的定价权了。过去12个月通胀率上涨5.4%，为2008年夏季以来最快涨幅，核心CPI大幅上涨4.5%，为1991年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote> So long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.<blockquote>只要定价权不威胁市场份额，通胀就会继续攀升。但历史表明，这种情况不会持续太久。价格竞争将在今年下半年重新出现，并在2022年更加激烈，这应该会缓解通胀压力。原因如下。</blockquote> Here’s why inflation has peaked<blockquote>这就是通货膨胀见顶的原因</blockquote> First, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.<blockquote>首先，随着华盛顿从财政刺激转向财政紧缩，我们预计家庭消费将相应缓解。</blockquote> Second, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.<blockquote>其次，过去一年消费者被压抑的需求大幅增加，为经济提供了巨大的前进动力。但随着需求得到满足，这种支出驱动将失去动力。</blockquote> Third, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.<blockquote>第三，毫无疑问，美联储正准备缩减对抵押贷款支持证券和美国国债的购买。无论是今年年底还是明年初开始缩减量化宽松，一旦他们这样做，借贷成本都会增加。这将减缓房屋销售和资本投资。</blockquote> Fourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.<blockquote>第四，上半年的供应链瓶颈开始缓解。货船正在以更快的速度卸货，尤其是在西海岸。物流的改善为大宗商品和成品价格的走低奠定了基础。</blockquote> Finally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.<blockquote>最后，我要说，这将是一些不情愿，尽管我们希望宣布战胜新冠肺炎病毒，但这样做还为时过早。新变种（Delta、Delta plus和现在的Lambda）在美国的出现，加上让70%至80%的美国人口完全接种疫苗的挑战（根据CDC的数据，截至今天，这一数字仅为48%），引发了秋冬季另一波感染的担忧。这也可能会给经济带来一些压力。</blockquote> Our assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.<blockquote>我们的评估是，我们已接近通胀周期的顶峰，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数投票成员都认同这一普遍情绪。随着消费者寻求更多交易，以及企业重新专注于锁定（如果不是扩大）市场份额，推动价格竞争和降低零售价格的力量必然会出现。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-07-14 09:31\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n Market share trumps pricing power. Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.<blockquote>市场份额胜过定价权。6月份通胀飙升，但目前已达到或接近本周期的峰值。</blockquote> What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?<blockquote>从现在开始，将决定消费者价格通胀路径的是企业如何回答一个关键问题：保护利润率和保护市场份额哪个更重要？</blockquote> There is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.<blockquote>毫无疑问，投入成本飙升。支付更高的工资来吸引新员工并留住现有员工确实会增加运营费用。在关键商品上的支出增加也是如此。因此，将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户的诱惑很大。</blockquote> Calculated risk<blockquote>计算风险</blockquote> But it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.<blockquote>但这也是一个经过计算的风险。人们总是担心长期客户会离开，转而与突然看到通过降价脱颖而出的机会的竞争对手做生意。如果说各种规模的公司都吸取了一个惨痛的教训，那就是一旦失去市场份额，想要夺回市场份额是极其困难和昂贵的。</blockquote> What June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.<blockquote>6月份消费者价格指数上涨0.9%告诉我们，大多数企业发现他们的运营费用增长太多、太快，根本无法吸收。他们不得不通过向消费者收取更多费用来弥补利润的萎缩。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8661c9e62b57cf95d3d61da103d77a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"710\">Again, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households&nbsp;are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.<blockquote>再说一次，这是一个经过计算的风险，而且可能是安全的…就目前而言！毕竟，家庭现金充裕，渴望消费，这意味着美国人此时不太可能对价格敏感。我们已经几十年没有见过这样的定价权了。过去12个月通胀率上涨5.4%，为2008年夏季以来最快涨幅，核心CPI大幅上涨4.5%，为1991年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote> So long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.<blockquote>只要定价权不威胁市场份额，通胀就会继续攀升。但历史表明，这种情况不会持续太久。价格竞争将在今年下半年重新出现，并在2022年更加激烈，这应该会缓解通胀压力。原因如下。</blockquote> Here’s why inflation has peaked<blockquote>这就是通货膨胀见顶的原因</blockquote> First, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.<blockquote>首先，随着华盛顿从财政刺激转向财政紧缩，我们预计家庭消费将相应缓解。</blockquote> Second, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.<blockquote>其次，过去一年消费者被压抑的需求大幅增加，为经济提供了巨大的前进动力。但随着需求得到满足，这种支出驱动将失去动力。</blockquote> Third, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.<blockquote>第三，毫无疑问，美联储正准备缩减对抵押贷款支持证券和美国国债的购买。无论是今年年底还是明年初开始缩减量化宽松，一旦他们这样做，借贷成本都会增加。这将减缓房屋销售和资本投资。</blockquote> Fourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.<blockquote>第四，上半年的供应链瓶颈开始缓解。货船正在以更快的速度卸货，尤其是在西海岸。物流的改善为大宗商品和成品价格的走低奠定了基础。</blockquote> Finally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.<blockquote>最后，我要说，这将是一些不情愿，尽管我们希望宣布战胜新冠肺炎病毒，但这样做还为时过早。新变种（Delta、Delta plus和现在的Lambda）在美国的出现，加上让70%至80%的美国人口完全接种疫苗的挑战（根据CDC的数据，截至今天，这一数字仅为48%），引发了秋冬季另一波感染的担忧。这也可能会给经济带来一些压力。</blockquote> Our assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.<blockquote>我们的评估是，我们已接近通胀周期的顶峰，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数投票成员都认同这一普遍情绪。随着消费者寻求更多交易，以及企业重新专注于锁定（如果不是扩大）市场份额，推动价格竞争和降低零售价格的力量必然会出现。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-weve-seen-the-peak-of-inflation-for-this-cycle-11626195636?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-weve-seen-the-peak-of-inflation-for-this-cycle-11626195636?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148011457","content_text":"Market share trumps pricing power.\n\nInflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.\nWhat will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?\nThere is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.\nCalculated risk\nBut it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.\nWhat June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.\nAgain, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.\nSo long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.\nHere’s why inflation has peaked\nFirst, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.\nSecond, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.\nThird, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.\nFourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.\nFinally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.\nOur assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":145441244,"gmtCreate":1626241001288,"gmtModify":1631892447279,"author":{"id":"3571224998869358","authorId":"3571224998869358","name":"geneviL","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fe6dc35659e6302f18e6a7a15cf3ef1","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3571224998869358","idStr":"3571224998869358"},"htmlText":"Well said..but please don't ignored the fact, when ppl&nbsp; are receiving higher pay cheque. What do u think they will do with their pay cheque?&nbsp; Keeping all of them for rainy days?..I'm pretty sure this is not the end but is just the begaining. However, The spike will slow down after Christmas and normaliszed come 2022.&nbsp;","listText":"Well said..but please don't ignored the fact, when ppl&nbsp; are receiving higher pay cheque. What do u think they will do with their pay cheque?&nbsp; Keeping all of them for rainy days?..I'm pretty sure this is not the end but is just the begaining. However, The spike will slow down after Christmas and normaliszed come 2022.&nbsp;","text":"Well said..but please don't ignored the fact, when ppl are receiving higher pay cheque. What do u think they will do with their pay cheque? Keeping all of them for rainy days?..I'm pretty sure this is not the end but is just the begaining. However, The spike will slow down after Christmas and normaliszed come 2022.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145441244","repostId":1148011457,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148011457","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626226288,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148011457?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-14 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148011457","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Market share trumps pricing power.\n\nInflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for t","content":" Market share trumps pricing power. Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.<blockquote>市场份额胜过定价权。6月份通胀飙升，但目前已达到或接近本周期的峰值。</blockquote> What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?<blockquote>从现在开始，将决定消费者价格通胀路径的是企业如何回答一个关键问题：保护利润率和保护市场份额哪个更重要？</blockquote> There is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.<blockquote>毫无疑问，投入成本飙升。支付更高的工资来吸引新员工并留住现有员工确实会增加运营费用。在关键商品上的支出增加也是如此。因此，将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户的诱惑很大。</blockquote> Calculated risk<blockquote>计算风险</blockquote> But it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.<blockquote>但这也是一个经过计算的风险。人们总是担心长期客户会离开，转而与突然看到通过降价脱颖而出的机会的竞争对手做生意。如果说各种规模的公司都吸取了一个惨痛的教训，那就是一旦失去市场份额，想要夺回市场份额是极其困难和昂贵的。</blockquote> What June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.<blockquote>6月份消费者价格指数上涨0.9%告诉我们，大多数企业发现他们的运营费用增长太多、太快，根本无法吸收。他们不得不通过向消费者收取更多费用来弥补利润的萎缩。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8661c9e62b57cf95d3d61da103d77a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"710\">Again, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households&nbsp;are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.<blockquote>再说一次，这是一个经过计算的风险，而且可能是安全的…就目前而言！毕竟，家庭现金充裕，渴望消费，这意味着美国人此时不太可能对价格敏感。我们已经几十年没有见过这样的定价权了。过去12个月通胀率上涨5.4%，为2008年夏季以来最快涨幅，核心CPI大幅上涨4.5%，为1991年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote> So long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.<blockquote>只要定价权不威胁市场份额，通胀就会继续攀升。但历史表明，这种情况不会持续太久。价格竞争将在今年下半年重新出现，并在2022年更加激烈，这应该会缓解通胀压力。原因如下。</blockquote> Here’s why inflation has peaked<blockquote>这就是通货膨胀见顶的原因</blockquote> First, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.<blockquote>首先，随着华盛顿从财政刺激转向财政紧缩，我们预计家庭消费将相应缓解。</blockquote> Second, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.<blockquote>其次，过去一年消费者被压抑的需求大幅增加，为经济提供了巨大的前进动力。但随着需求得到满足，这种支出驱动将失去动力。</blockquote> Third, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.<blockquote>第三，毫无疑问，美联储正准备缩减对抵押贷款支持证券和美国国债的购买。无论是今年年底还是明年初开始缩减量化宽松，一旦他们这样做，借贷成本都会增加。这将减缓房屋销售和资本投资。</blockquote> Fourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.<blockquote>第四，上半年的供应链瓶颈开始缓解。货船正在以更快的速度卸货，尤其是在西海岸。物流的改善为大宗商品和成品价格的走低奠定了基础。</blockquote> Finally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.<blockquote>最后，我要说，这将是一些不情愿，尽管我们希望宣布战胜新冠肺炎病毒，但这样做还为时过早。新变种（Delta、Delta plus和现在的Lambda）在美国的出现，加上让70%至80%的美国人口完全接种疫苗的挑战（根据CDC的数据，截至今天，这一数字仅为48%），引发了秋冬季另一波感染的担忧。这也可能会给经济带来一些压力。</blockquote> Our assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.<blockquote>我们的评估是，我们已接近通胀周期的顶峰，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数投票成员都认同这一普遍情绪。随着消费者寻求更多交易，以及企业重新专注于锁定（如果不是扩大）市场份额，推动价格竞争和降低零售价格的力量必然会出现。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-07-14 09:31\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n Market share trumps pricing power. Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.<blockquote>市场份额胜过定价权。6月份通胀飙升，但目前已达到或接近本周期的峰值。</blockquote> What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?<blockquote>从现在开始，将决定消费者价格通胀路径的是企业如何回答一个关键问题：保护利润率和保护市场份额哪个更重要？</blockquote> There is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.<blockquote>毫无疑问，投入成本飙升。支付更高的工资来吸引新员工并留住现有员工确实会增加运营费用。在关键商品上的支出增加也是如此。因此，将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户的诱惑很大。</blockquote> Calculated risk<blockquote>计算风险</blockquote> But it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.<blockquote>但这也是一个经过计算的风险。人们总是担心长期客户会离开，转而与突然看到通过降价脱颖而出的机会的竞争对手做生意。如果说各种规模的公司都吸取了一个惨痛的教训，那就是一旦失去市场份额，想要夺回市场份额是极其困难和昂贵的。</blockquote> What June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.<blockquote>6月份消费者价格指数上涨0.9%告诉我们，大多数企业发现他们的运营费用增长太多、太快，根本无法吸收。他们不得不通过向消费者收取更多费用来弥补利润的萎缩。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8661c9e62b57cf95d3d61da103d77a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"710\">Again, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households&nbsp;are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.<blockquote>再说一次，这是一个经过计算的风险，而且可能是安全的…就目前而言！毕竟，家庭现金充裕，渴望消费，这意味着美国人此时不太可能对价格敏感。我们已经几十年没有见过这样的定价权了。过去12个月通胀率上涨5.4%，为2008年夏季以来最快涨幅，核心CPI大幅上涨4.5%，为1991年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote> So long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.<blockquote>只要定价权不威胁市场份额，通胀就会继续攀升。但历史表明，这种情况不会持续太久。价格竞争将在今年下半年重新出现，并在2022年更加激烈，这应该会缓解通胀压力。原因如下。</blockquote> Here’s why inflation has peaked<blockquote>这就是通货膨胀见顶的原因</blockquote> First, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.<blockquote>首先，随着华盛顿从财政刺激转向财政紧缩，我们预计家庭消费将相应缓解。</blockquote> Second, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.<blockquote>其次，过去一年消费者被压抑的需求大幅增加，为经济提供了巨大的前进动力。但随着需求得到满足，这种支出驱动将失去动力。</blockquote> Third, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.<blockquote>第三，毫无疑问，美联储正准备缩减对抵押贷款支持证券和美国国债的购买。无论是今年年底还是明年初开始缩减量化宽松，一旦他们这样做，借贷成本都会增加。这将减缓房屋销售和资本投资。</blockquote> Fourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.<blockquote>第四，上半年的供应链瓶颈开始缓解。货船正在以更快的速度卸货，尤其是在西海岸。物流的改善为大宗商品和成品价格的走低奠定了基础。</blockquote> Finally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.<blockquote>最后，我要说，这将是一些不情愿，尽管我们希望宣布战胜新冠肺炎病毒，但这样做还为时过早。新变种（Delta、Delta plus和现在的Lambda）在美国的出现，加上让70%至80%的美国人口完全接种疫苗的挑战（根据CDC的数据，截至今天，这一数字仅为48%），引发了秋冬季另一波感染的担忧。这也可能会给经济带来一些压力。</blockquote> Our assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.<blockquote>我们的评估是，我们已接近通胀周期的顶峰，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数投票成员都认同这一普遍情绪。随着消费者寻求更多交易，以及企业重新专注于锁定（如果不是扩大）市场份额，推动价格竞争和降低零售价格的力量必然会出现。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-weve-seen-the-peak-of-inflation-for-this-cycle-11626195636?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-weve-seen-the-peak-of-inflation-for-this-cycle-11626195636?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148011457","content_text":"Market share trumps pricing power.\n\nInflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.\nWhat will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?\nThere is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.\nCalculated risk\nBut it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.\nWhat June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.\nAgain, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.\nSo long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.\nHere’s why inflation has peaked\nFirst, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.\nSecond, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.\nThird, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.\nFourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.\nFinally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.\nOur assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5215163,"gmtCreate":1626243292936,"gmtModify":1631892447286,"authorId":3581720974353046,"author":{"id":3581720974353046,"idStr":"3581720974353046","authorId":3581720974353046,"name":"PurpleBarley","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b619bf28995c983138e1763a8056a56","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":145441244,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","html":"👍🏻"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":145454166,"gmtCreate":1626240545755,"gmtModify":1631884321828,"author":{"id":"4087698744325360","authorId":"4087698744325360","name":"glorify","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb1a0d88b0029e6cb51d7065d6b143e5","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4087698744325360","idStr":"4087698744325360"},"htmlText":"Though surge but is temporary!&nbsp;Seem not sustain? Hope it is mean for temporary correction &amp; bounce back again!","listText":"Though surge but is temporary!&nbsp;Seem not sustain? Hope it is mean for temporary correction &amp; bounce back again!","text":"Though surge but is temporary! Seem not sustain? Hope it is mean for temporary correction & bounce back again!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145454166","repostId":1148011457,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148011457","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626226288,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148011457?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-14 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148011457","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Market share trumps pricing power.\n\nInflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for t","content":" Market share trumps pricing power. Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.<blockquote>市场份额胜过定价权。6月份通胀飙升，但目前已达到或接近本周期的峰值。</blockquote> What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?<blockquote>从现在开始，将决定消费者价格通胀路径的是企业如何回答一个关键问题：保护利润率和保护市场份额哪个更重要？</blockquote> There is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.<blockquote>毫无疑问，投入成本飙升。支付更高的工资来吸引新员工并留住现有员工确实会增加运营费用。在关键商品上的支出增加也是如此。因此，将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户的诱惑很大。</blockquote> Calculated risk<blockquote>计算风险</blockquote> But it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.<blockquote>但这也是一个经过计算的风险。人们总是担心长期客户会离开，转而与突然看到通过降价脱颖而出的机会的竞争对手做生意。如果说各种规模的公司都吸取了一个惨痛的教训，那就是一旦失去市场份额，想要夺回市场份额是极其困难和昂贵的。</blockquote> What June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.<blockquote>6月份消费者价格指数上涨0.9%告诉我们，大多数企业发现他们的运营费用增长太多、太快，根本无法吸收。他们不得不通过向消费者收取更多费用来弥补利润的萎缩。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8661c9e62b57cf95d3d61da103d77a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"710\">Again, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households&nbsp;are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.<blockquote>再说一次，这是一个经过计算的风险，而且可能是安全的…就目前而言！毕竟，家庭现金充裕，渴望消费，这意味着美国人此时不太可能对价格敏感。我们已经几十年没有见过这样的定价权了。过去12个月通胀率上涨5.4%，为2008年夏季以来最快涨幅，核心CPI大幅上涨4.5%，为1991年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote> So long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.<blockquote>只要定价权不威胁市场份额，通胀就会继续攀升。但历史表明，这种情况不会持续太久。价格竞争将在今年下半年重新出现，并在2022年更加激烈，这应该会缓解通胀压力。原因如下。</blockquote> Here’s why inflation has peaked<blockquote>这就是通货膨胀见顶的原因</blockquote> First, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.<blockquote>首先，随着华盛顿从财政刺激转向财政紧缩，我们预计家庭消费将相应缓解。</blockquote> Second, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.<blockquote>其次，过去一年消费者被压抑的需求大幅增加，为经济提供了巨大的前进动力。但随着需求得到满足，这种支出驱动将失去动力。</blockquote> Third, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.<blockquote>第三，毫无疑问，美联储正准备缩减对抵押贷款支持证券和美国国债的购买。无论是今年年底还是明年初开始缩减量化宽松，一旦他们这样做，借贷成本都会增加。这将减缓房屋销售和资本投资。</blockquote> Fourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.<blockquote>第四，上半年的供应链瓶颈开始缓解。货船正在以更快的速度卸货，尤其是在西海岸。物流的改善为大宗商品和成品价格的走低奠定了基础。</blockquote> Finally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.<blockquote>最后，我要说，这将是一些不情愿，尽管我们希望宣布战胜新冠肺炎病毒，但这样做还为时过早。新变种（Delta、Delta plus和现在的Lambda）在美国的出现，加上让70%至80%的美国人口完全接种疫苗的挑战（根据CDC的数据，截至今天，这一数字仅为48%），引发了秋冬季另一波感染的担忧。这也可能会给经济带来一些压力。</blockquote> Our assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.<blockquote>我们的评估是，我们已接近通胀周期的顶峰，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数投票成员都认同这一普遍情绪。随着消费者寻求更多交易，以及企业重新专注于锁定（如果不是扩大）市场份额，推动价格竞争和降低零售价格的力量必然会出现。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-07-14 09:31\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n Market share trumps pricing power. Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.<blockquote>市场份额胜过定价权。6月份通胀飙升，但目前已达到或接近本周期的峰值。</blockquote> What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?<blockquote>从现在开始，将决定消费者价格通胀路径的是企业如何回答一个关键问题：保护利润率和保护市场份额哪个更重要？</blockquote> There is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.<blockquote>毫无疑问，投入成本飙升。支付更高的工资来吸引新员工并留住现有员工确实会增加运营费用。在关键商品上的支出增加也是如此。因此，将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户的诱惑很大。</blockquote> Calculated risk<blockquote>计算风险</blockquote> But it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.<blockquote>但这也是一个经过计算的风险。人们总是担心长期客户会离开，转而与突然看到通过降价脱颖而出的机会的竞争对手做生意。如果说各种规模的公司都吸取了一个惨痛的教训，那就是一旦失去市场份额，想要夺回市场份额是极其困难和昂贵的。</blockquote> What June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.<blockquote>6月份消费者价格指数上涨0.9%告诉我们，大多数企业发现他们的运营费用增长太多、太快，根本无法吸收。他们不得不通过向消费者收取更多费用来弥补利润的萎缩。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8661c9e62b57cf95d3d61da103d77a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"710\">Again, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households&nbsp;are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.<blockquote>再说一次，这是一个经过计算的风险，而且可能是安全的…就目前而言！毕竟，家庭现金充裕，渴望消费，这意味着美国人此时不太可能对价格敏感。我们已经几十年没有见过这样的定价权了。过去12个月通胀率上涨5.4%，为2008年夏季以来最快涨幅，核心CPI大幅上涨4.5%，为1991年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote> So long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.<blockquote>只要定价权不威胁市场份额，通胀就会继续攀升。但历史表明，这种情况不会持续太久。价格竞争将在今年下半年重新出现，并在2022年更加激烈，这应该会缓解通胀压力。原因如下。</blockquote> Here’s why inflation has peaked<blockquote>这就是通货膨胀见顶的原因</blockquote> First, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.<blockquote>首先，随着华盛顿从财政刺激转向财政紧缩，我们预计家庭消费将相应缓解。</blockquote> Second, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.<blockquote>其次，过去一年消费者被压抑的需求大幅增加，为经济提供了巨大的前进动力。但随着需求得到满足，这种支出驱动将失去动力。</blockquote> Third, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.<blockquote>第三，毫无疑问，美联储正准备缩减对抵押贷款支持证券和美国国债的购买。无论是今年年底还是明年初开始缩减量化宽松，一旦他们这样做，借贷成本都会增加。这将减缓房屋销售和资本投资。</blockquote> Fourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.<blockquote>第四，上半年的供应链瓶颈开始缓解。货船正在以更快的速度卸货，尤其是在西海岸。物流的改善为大宗商品和成品价格的走低奠定了基础。</blockquote> Finally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.<blockquote>最后，我要说，这将是一些不情愿，尽管我们希望宣布战胜新冠肺炎病毒，但这样做还为时过早。新变种（Delta、Delta plus和现在的Lambda）在美国的出现，加上让70%至80%的美国人口完全接种疫苗的挑战（根据CDC的数据，截至今天，这一数字仅为48%），引发了秋冬季另一波感染的担忧。这也可能会给经济带来一些压力。</blockquote> Our assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.<blockquote>我们的评估是，我们已接近通胀周期的顶峰，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数投票成员都认同这一普遍情绪。随着消费者寻求更多交易，以及企业重新专注于锁定（如果不是扩大）市场份额，推动价格竞争和降低零售价格的力量必然会出现。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-weve-seen-the-peak-of-inflation-for-this-cycle-11626195636?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-weve-seen-the-peak-of-inflation-for-this-cycle-11626195636?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148011457","content_text":"Market share trumps pricing power.\n\nInflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.\nWhat will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?\nThere is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.\nCalculated risk\nBut it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.\nWhat June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.\nAgain, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.\nSo long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.\nHere’s why inflation has peaked\nFirst, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.\nSecond, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.\nThird, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.\nFourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.\nFinally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.\nOur assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5215067,"gmtCreate":1626242355379,"gmtModify":1635229572277,"authorId":3577530901336464,"author":{"id":3577530901336464,"idStr":"3577530901336464","authorId":3577530901336464,"name":"dt1","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":145454166,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[微笑]","text":"[微笑]","html":"[微笑]"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":145426925,"gmtCreate":1626239322467,"gmtModify":1631892800680,"author":{"id":"3584655084310997","authorId":"3584655084310997","name":"TSENR3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02c7cd50655930bda46aef01d6a5ad53","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3584655084310997","idStr":"3584655084310997"},"htmlText":"Hear and see how.&nbsp;","listText":"Hear and see how.&nbsp;","text":"Hear and see how.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145426925","repostId":1148011457,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148011457","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626226288,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148011457?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-14 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148011457","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Market share trumps pricing power.\n\nInflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for t","content":" Market share trumps pricing power. Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.<blockquote>市场份额胜过定价权。6月份通胀飙升，但目前已达到或接近本周期的峰值。</blockquote> What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?<blockquote>从现在开始，将决定消费者价格通胀路径的是企业如何回答一个关键问题：保护利润率和保护市场份额哪个更重要？</blockquote> There is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.<blockquote>毫无疑问，投入成本飙升。支付更高的工资来吸引新员工并留住现有员工确实会增加运营费用。在关键商品上的支出增加也是如此。因此，将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户的诱惑很大。</blockquote> Calculated risk<blockquote>计算风险</blockquote> But it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.<blockquote>但这也是一个经过计算的风险。人们总是担心长期客户会离开，转而与突然看到通过降价脱颖而出的机会的竞争对手做生意。如果说各种规模的公司都吸取了一个惨痛的教训，那就是一旦失去市场份额，想要夺回市场份额是极其困难和昂贵的。</blockquote> What June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.<blockquote>6月份消费者价格指数上涨0.9%告诉我们，大多数企业发现他们的运营费用增长太多、太快，根本无法吸收。他们不得不通过向消费者收取更多费用来弥补利润的萎缩。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8661c9e62b57cf95d3d61da103d77a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"710\">Again, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households&nbsp;are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.<blockquote>再说一次，这是一个经过计算的风险，而且可能是安全的…就目前而言！毕竟，家庭现金充裕，渴望消费，这意味着美国人此时不太可能对价格敏感。我们已经几十年没有见过这样的定价权了。过去12个月通胀率上涨5.4%，为2008年夏季以来最快涨幅，核心CPI大幅上涨4.5%，为1991年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote> So long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.<blockquote>只要定价权不威胁市场份额，通胀就会继续攀升。但历史表明，这种情况不会持续太久。价格竞争将在今年下半年重新出现，并在2022年更加激烈，这应该会缓解通胀压力。原因如下。</blockquote> Here’s why inflation has peaked<blockquote>这就是通货膨胀见顶的原因</blockquote> First, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.<blockquote>首先，随着华盛顿从财政刺激转向财政紧缩，我们预计家庭消费将相应缓解。</blockquote> Second, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.<blockquote>其次，过去一年消费者被压抑的需求大幅增加，为经济提供了巨大的前进动力。但随着需求得到满足，这种支出驱动将失去动力。</blockquote> Third, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.<blockquote>第三，毫无疑问，美联储正准备缩减对抵押贷款支持证券和美国国债的购买。无论是今年年底还是明年初开始缩减量化宽松，一旦他们这样做，借贷成本都会增加。这将减缓房屋销售和资本投资。</blockquote> Fourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.<blockquote>第四，上半年的供应链瓶颈开始缓解。货船正在以更快的速度卸货，尤其是在西海岸。物流的改善为大宗商品和成品价格的走低奠定了基础。</blockquote> Finally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.<blockquote>最后，我要说，这将是一些不情愿，尽管我们希望宣布战胜新冠肺炎病毒，但这样做还为时过早。新变种（Delta、Delta plus和现在的Lambda）在美国的出现，加上让70%至80%的美国人口完全接种疫苗的挑战（根据CDC的数据，截至今天，这一数字仅为48%），引发了秋冬季另一波感染的担忧。这也可能会给经济带来一些压力。</blockquote> Our assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.<blockquote>我们的评估是，我们已接近通胀周期的顶峰，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数投票成员都认同这一普遍情绪。随着消费者寻求更多交易，以及企业重新专注于锁定（如果不是扩大）市场份额，推动价格竞争和降低零售价格的力量必然会出现。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-07-14 09:31\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n Market share trumps pricing power. Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.<blockquote>市场份额胜过定价权。6月份通胀飙升，但目前已达到或接近本周期的峰值。</blockquote> What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?<blockquote>从现在开始，将决定消费者价格通胀路径的是企业如何回答一个关键问题：保护利润率和保护市场份额哪个更重要？</blockquote> There is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.<blockquote>毫无疑问，投入成本飙升。支付更高的工资来吸引新员工并留住现有员工确实会增加运营费用。在关键商品上的支出增加也是如此。因此，将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户的诱惑很大。</blockquote> Calculated risk<blockquote>计算风险</blockquote> But it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.<blockquote>但这也是一个经过计算的风险。人们总是担心长期客户会离开，转而与突然看到通过降价脱颖而出的机会的竞争对手做生意。如果说各种规模的公司都吸取了一个惨痛的教训，那就是一旦失去市场份额，想要夺回市场份额是极其困难和昂贵的。</blockquote> What June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.<blockquote>6月份消费者价格指数上涨0.9%告诉我们，大多数企业发现他们的运营费用增长太多、太快，根本无法吸收。他们不得不通过向消费者收取更多费用来弥补利润的萎缩。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8661c9e62b57cf95d3d61da103d77a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"710\">Again, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households&nbsp;are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.<blockquote>再说一次，这是一个经过计算的风险，而且可能是安全的…就目前而言！毕竟，家庭现金充裕，渴望消费，这意味着美国人此时不太可能对价格敏感。我们已经几十年没有见过这样的定价权了。过去12个月通胀率上涨5.4%，为2008年夏季以来最快涨幅，核心CPI大幅上涨4.5%，为1991年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote> So long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.<blockquote>只要定价权不威胁市场份额，通胀就会继续攀升。但历史表明，这种情况不会持续太久。价格竞争将在今年下半年重新出现，并在2022年更加激烈，这应该会缓解通胀压力。原因如下。</blockquote> Here’s why inflation has peaked<blockquote>这就是通货膨胀见顶的原因</blockquote> First, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.<blockquote>首先，随着华盛顿从财政刺激转向财政紧缩，我们预计家庭消费将相应缓解。</blockquote> Second, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.<blockquote>其次，过去一年消费者被压抑的需求大幅增加，为经济提供了巨大的前进动力。但随着需求得到满足，这种支出驱动将失去动力。</blockquote> Third, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.<blockquote>第三，毫无疑问，美联储正准备缩减对抵押贷款支持证券和美国国债的购买。无论是今年年底还是明年初开始缩减量化宽松，一旦他们这样做，借贷成本都会增加。这将减缓房屋销售和资本投资。</blockquote> Fourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.<blockquote>第四，上半年的供应链瓶颈开始缓解。货船正在以更快的速度卸货，尤其是在西海岸。物流的改善为大宗商品和成品价格的走低奠定了基础。</blockquote> Finally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.<blockquote>最后，我要说，这将是一些不情愿，尽管我们希望宣布战胜新冠肺炎病毒，但这样做还为时过早。新变种（Delta、Delta plus和现在的Lambda）在美国的出现，加上让70%至80%的美国人口完全接种疫苗的挑战（根据CDC的数据，截至今天，这一数字仅为48%），引发了秋冬季另一波感染的担忧。这也可能会给经济带来一些压力。</blockquote> Our assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.<blockquote>我们的评估是，我们已接近通胀周期的顶峰，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数投票成员都认同这一普遍情绪。随着消费者寻求更多交易，以及企业重新专注于锁定（如果不是扩大）市场份额，推动价格竞争和降低零售价格的力量必然会出现。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-weve-seen-the-peak-of-inflation-for-this-cycle-11626195636?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-weve-seen-the-peak-of-inflation-for-this-cycle-11626195636?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148011457","content_text":"Market share trumps pricing power.\n\nInflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.\nWhat will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?\nThere is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.\nCalculated risk\nBut it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.\nWhat June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.\nAgain, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.\nSo long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.\nHere’s why inflation has peaked\nFirst, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.\nSecond, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.\nThird, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.\nFourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.\nFinally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.\nOur assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":145484633,"gmtCreate":1626237942922,"gmtModify":1631892935077,"author":{"id":"3583377018896117","authorId":"3583377018896117","name":"bernardtayet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43e8c1fc37a4bff2a94af98953cff267","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3583377018896117","idStr":"3583377018896117"},"htmlText":"Steady don't panic in such environment.&nbsp;","listText":"Steady don't panic in such environment.&nbsp;","text":"Steady don't panic in such environment.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145484633","repostId":1148011457,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148011457","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626226288,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148011457?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-14 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148011457","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Market share trumps pricing power.\n\nInflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for t","content":" Market share trumps pricing power. Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.<blockquote>市场份额胜过定价权。6月份通胀飙升，但目前已达到或接近本周期的峰值。</blockquote> What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?<blockquote>从现在开始，将决定消费者价格通胀路径的是企业如何回答一个关键问题：保护利润率和保护市场份额哪个更重要？</blockquote> There is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.<blockquote>毫无疑问，投入成本飙升。支付更高的工资来吸引新员工并留住现有员工确实会增加运营费用。在关键商品上的支出增加也是如此。因此，将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户的诱惑很大。</blockquote> Calculated risk<blockquote>计算风险</blockquote> But it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.<blockquote>但这也是一个经过计算的风险。人们总是担心长期客户会离开，转而与突然看到通过降价脱颖而出的机会的竞争对手做生意。如果说各种规模的公司都吸取了一个惨痛的教训，那就是一旦失去市场份额，想要夺回市场份额是极其困难和昂贵的。</blockquote> What June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.<blockquote>6月份消费者价格指数上涨0.9%告诉我们，大多数企业发现他们的运营费用增长太多、太快，根本无法吸收。他们不得不通过向消费者收取更多费用来弥补利润的萎缩。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8661c9e62b57cf95d3d61da103d77a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"710\">Again, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households&nbsp;are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.<blockquote>再说一次，这是一个经过计算的风险，而且可能是安全的…就目前而言！毕竟，家庭现金充裕，渴望消费，这意味着美国人此时不太可能对价格敏感。我们已经几十年没有见过这样的定价权了。过去12个月通胀率上涨5.4%，为2008年夏季以来最快涨幅，核心CPI大幅上涨4.5%，为1991年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote> So long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.<blockquote>只要定价权不威胁市场份额，通胀就会继续攀升。但历史表明，这种情况不会持续太久。价格竞争将在今年下半年重新出现，并在2022年更加激烈，这应该会缓解通胀压力。原因如下。</blockquote> Here’s why inflation has peaked<blockquote>这就是通货膨胀见顶的原因</blockquote> First, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.<blockquote>首先，随着华盛顿从财政刺激转向财政紧缩，我们预计家庭消费将相应缓解。</blockquote> Second, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.<blockquote>其次，过去一年消费者被压抑的需求大幅增加，为经济提供了巨大的前进动力。但随着需求得到满足，这种支出驱动将失去动力。</blockquote> Third, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.<blockquote>第三，毫无疑问，美联储正准备缩减对抵押贷款支持证券和美国国债的购买。无论是今年年底还是明年初开始缩减量化宽松，一旦他们这样做，借贷成本都会增加。这将减缓房屋销售和资本投资。</blockquote> Fourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.<blockquote>第四，上半年的供应链瓶颈开始缓解。货船正在以更快的速度卸货，尤其是在西海岸。物流的改善为大宗商品和成品价格的走低奠定了基础。</blockquote> Finally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.<blockquote>最后，我要说，这将是一些不情愿，尽管我们希望宣布战胜新冠肺炎病毒，但这样做还为时过早。新变种（Delta、Delta plus和现在的Lambda）在美国的出现，加上让70%至80%的美国人口完全接种疫苗的挑战（根据CDC的数据，截至今天，这一数字仅为48%），引发了秋冬季另一波感染的担忧。这也可能会给经济带来一些压力。</blockquote> Our assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.<blockquote>我们的评估是，我们已接近通胀周期的顶峰，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数投票成员都认同这一普遍情绪。随着消费者寻求更多交易，以及企业重新专注于锁定（如果不是扩大）市场份额，推动价格竞争和降低零售价格的力量必然会出现。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-07-14 09:31\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n Market share trumps pricing power. Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.<blockquote>市场份额胜过定价权。6月份通胀飙升，但目前已达到或接近本周期的峰值。</blockquote> What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?<blockquote>从现在开始，将决定消费者价格通胀路径的是企业如何回答一个关键问题：保护利润率和保护市场份额哪个更重要？</blockquote> There is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.<blockquote>毫无疑问，投入成本飙升。支付更高的工资来吸引新员工并留住现有员工确实会增加运营费用。在关键商品上的支出增加也是如此。因此，将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户的诱惑很大。</blockquote> Calculated risk<blockquote>计算风险</blockquote> But it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.<blockquote>但这也是一个经过计算的风险。人们总是担心长期客户会离开，转而与突然看到通过降价脱颖而出的机会的竞争对手做生意。如果说各种规模的公司都吸取了一个惨痛的教训，那就是一旦失去市场份额，想要夺回市场份额是极其困难和昂贵的。</blockquote> What June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.<blockquote>6月份消费者价格指数上涨0.9%告诉我们，大多数企业发现他们的运营费用增长太多、太快，根本无法吸收。他们不得不通过向消费者收取更多费用来弥补利润的萎缩。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8661c9e62b57cf95d3d61da103d77a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"710\">Again, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households&nbsp;are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.<blockquote>再说一次，这是一个经过计算的风险，而且可能是安全的…就目前而言！毕竟，家庭现金充裕，渴望消费，这意味着美国人此时不太可能对价格敏感。我们已经几十年没有见过这样的定价权了。过去12个月通胀率上涨5.4%，为2008年夏季以来最快涨幅，核心CPI大幅上涨4.5%，为1991年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote> So long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.<blockquote>只要定价权不威胁市场份额，通胀就会继续攀升。但历史表明，这种情况不会持续太久。价格竞争将在今年下半年重新出现，并在2022年更加激烈，这应该会缓解通胀压力。原因如下。</blockquote> Here’s why inflation has peaked<blockquote>这就是通货膨胀见顶的原因</blockquote> First, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.<blockquote>首先，随着华盛顿从财政刺激转向财政紧缩，我们预计家庭消费将相应缓解。</blockquote> Second, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.<blockquote>其次，过去一年消费者被压抑的需求大幅增加，为经济提供了巨大的前进动力。但随着需求得到满足，这种支出驱动将失去动力。</blockquote> Third, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.<blockquote>第三，毫无疑问，美联储正准备缩减对抵押贷款支持证券和美国国债的购买。无论是今年年底还是明年初开始缩减量化宽松，一旦他们这样做，借贷成本都会增加。这将减缓房屋销售和资本投资。</blockquote> Fourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.<blockquote>第四，上半年的供应链瓶颈开始缓解。货船正在以更快的速度卸货，尤其是在西海岸。物流的改善为大宗商品和成品价格的走低奠定了基础。</blockquote> Finally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.<blockquote>最后，我要说，这将是一些不情愿，尽管我们希望宣布战胜新冠肺炎病毒，但这样做还为时过早。新变种（Delta、Delta plus和现在的Lambda）在美国的出现，加上让70%至80%的美国人口完全接种疫苗的挑战（根据CDC的数据，截至今天，这一数字仅为48%），引发了秋冬季另一波感染的担忧。这也可能会给经济带来一些压力。</blockquote> Our assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.<blockquote>我们的评估是，我们已接近通胀周期的顶峰，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数投票成员都认同这一普遍情绪。随着消费者寻求更多交易，以及企业重新专注于锁定（如果不是扩大）市场份额，推动价格竞争和降低零售价格的力量必然会出现。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-weve-seen-the-peak-of-inflation-for-this-cycle-11626195636?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-weve-seen-the-peak-of-inflation-for-this-cycle-11626195636?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148011457","content_text":"Market share trumps pricing power.\n\nInflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.\nWhat will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?\nThere is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.\nCalculated risk\nBut it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.\nWhat June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.\nAgain, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.\nSo long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.\nHere’s why inflation has peaked\nFirst, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.\nSecond, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.\nThird, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.\nFourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.\nFinally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.\nOur assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5214723,"gmtCreate":1626239348828,"gmtModify":1635229598143,"authorId":3584655084310997,"author":{"id":3584655084310997,"idStr":"3584655084310997","authorId":3584655084310997,"name":"TSENR3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02c7cd50655930bda46aef01d6a5ad53","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":145484633,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"steady. Like, comment and follow me pls","text":"steady. Like, comment and follow me pls","html":"steady. Like, comment and follow me pls"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":145488567,"gmtCreate":1626237642759,"gmtModify":1633928728540,"author":{"id":"3568986316793949","authorId":"3568986316793949","name":"Simbax","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3568986316793949","idStr":"3568986316793949"},"htmlText":"like and comment","listText":"like and comment","text":"like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145488567","repostId":1148011457,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148011457","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626226288,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148011457?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-14 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148011457","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Market share trumps pricing power.\n\nInflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for t","content":" Market share trumps pricing power. Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.<blockquote>市场份额胜过定价权。6月份通胀飙升，但目前已达到或接近本周期的峰值。</blockquote> What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?<blockquote>从现在开始，将决定消费者价格通胀路径的是企业如何回答一个关键问题：保护利润率和保护市场份额哪个更重要？</blockquote> There is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.<blockquote>毫无疑问，投入成本飙升。支付更高的工资来吸引新员工并留住现有员工确实会增加运营费用。在关键商品上的支出增加也是如此。因此，将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户的诱惑很大。</blockquote> Calculated risk<blockquote>计算风险</blockquote> But it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.<blockquote>但这也是一个经过计算的风险。人们总是担心长期客户会离开，转而与突然看到通过降价脱颖而出的机会的竞争对手做生意。如果说各种规模的公司都吸取了一个惨痛的教训，那就是一旦失去市场份额，想要夺回市场份额是极其困难和昂贵的。</blockquote> What June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.<blockquote>6月份消费者价格指数上涨0.9%告诉我们，大多数企业发现他们的运营费用增长太多、太快，根本无法吸收。他们不得不通过向消费者收取更多费用来弥补利润的萎缩。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8661c9e62b57cf95d3d61da103d77a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"710\">Again, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households&nbsp;are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.<blockquote>再说一次，这是一个经过计算的风险，而且可能是安全的…就目前而言！毕竟，家庭现金充裕，渴望消费，这意味着美国人此时不太可能对价格敏感。我们已经几十年没有见过这样的定价权了。过去12个月通胀率上涨5.4%，为2008年夏季以来最快涨幅，核心CPI大幅上涨4.5%，为1991年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote> So long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.<blockquote>只要定价权不威胁市场份额，通胀就会继续攀升。但历史表明，这种情况不会持续太久。价格竞争将在今年下半年重新出现，并在2022年更加激烈，这应该会缓解通胀压力。原因如下。</blockquote> Here’s why inflation has peaked<blockquote>这就是通货膨胀见顶的原因</blockquote> First, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.<blockquote>首先，随着华盛顿从财政刺激转向财政紧缩，我们预计家庭消费将相应缓解。</blockquote> Second, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.<blockquote>其次，过去一年消费者被压抑的需求大幅增加，为经济提供了巨大的前进动力。但随着需求得到满足，这种支出驱动将失去动力。</blockquote> Third, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.<blockquote>第三，毫无疑问，美联储正准备缩减对抵押贷款支持证券和美国国债的购买。无论是今年年底还是明年初开始缩减量化宽松，一旦他们这样做，借贷成本都会增加。这将减缓房屋销售和资本投资。</blockquote> Fourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.<blockquote>第四，上半年的供应链瓶颈开始缓解。货船正在以更快的速度卸货，尤其是在西海岸。物流的改善为大宗商品和成品价格的走低奠定了基础。</blockquote> Finally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.<blockquote>最后，我要说，这将是一些不情愿，尽管我们希望宣布战胜新冠肺炎病毒，但这样做还为时过早。新变种（Delta、Delta plus和现在的Lambda）在美国的出现，加上让70%至80%的美国人口完全接种疫苗的挑战（根据CDC的数据，截至今天，这一数字仅为48%），引发了秋冬季另一波感染的担忧。这也可能会给经济带来一些压力。</blockquote> Our assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.<blockquote>我们的评估是，我们已接近通胀周期的顶峰，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数投票成员都认同这一普遍情绪。随着消费者寻求更多交易，以及企业重新专注于锁定（如果不是扩大）市场份额，推动价格竞争和降低零售价格的力量必然会出现。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-07-14 09:31\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n Market share trumps pricing power. Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.<blockquote>市场份额胜过定价权。6月份通胀飙升，但目前已达到或接近本周期的峰值。</blockquote> What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?<blockquote>从现在开始，将决定消费者价格通胀路径的是企业如何回答一个关键问题：保护利润率和保护市场份额哪个更重要？</blockquote> There is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.<blockquote>毫无疑问，投入成本飙升。支付更高的工资来吸引新员工并留住现有员工确实会增加运营费用。在关键商品上的支出增加也是如此。因此，将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户的诱惑很大。</blockquote> Calculated risk<blockquote>计算风险</blockquote> But it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.<blockquote>但这也是一个经过计算的风险。人们总是担心长期客户会离开，转而与突然看到通过降价脱颖而出的机会的竞争对手做生意。如果说各种规模的公司都吸取了一个惨痛的教训，那就是一旦失去市场份额，想要夺回市场份额是极其困难和昂贵的。</blockquote> What June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.<blockquote>6月份消费者价格指数上涨0.9%告诉我们，大多数企业发现他们的运营费用增长太多、太快，根本无法吸收。他们不得不通过向消费者收取更多费用来弥补利润的萎缩。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8661c9e62b57cf95d3d61da103d77a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"710\">Again, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households&nbsp;are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.<blockquote>再说一次，这是一个经过计算的风险，而且可能是安全的…就目前而言！毕竟，家庭现金充裕，渴望消费，这意味着美国人此时不太可能对价格敏感。我们已经几十年没有见过这样的定价权了。过去12个月通胀率上涨5.4%，为2008年夏季以来最快涨幅，核心CPI大幅上涨4.5%，为1991年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote> So long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.<blockquote>只要定价权不威胁市场份额，通胀就会继续攀升。但历史表明，这种情况不会持续太久。价格竞争将在今年下半年重新出现，并在2022年更加激烈，这应该会缓解通胀压力。原因如下。</blockquote> Here’s why inflation has peaked<blockquote>这就是通货膨胀见顶的原因</blockquote> First, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.<blockquote>首先，随着华盛顿从财政刺激转向财政紧缩，我们预计家庭消费将相应缓解。</blockquote> Second, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.<blockquote>其次，过去一年消费者被压抑的需求大幅增加，为经济提供了巨大的前进动力。但随着需求得到满足，这种支出驱动将失去动力。</blockquote> Third, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.<blockquote>第三，毫无疑问，美联储正准备缩减对抵押贷款支持证券和美国国债的购买。无论是今年年底还是明年初开始缩减量化宽松，一旦他们这样做，借贷成本都会增加。这将减缓房屋销售和资本投资。</blockquote> Fourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.<blockquote>第四，上半年的供应链瓶颈开始缓解。货船正在以更快的速度卸货，尤其是在西海岸。物流的改善为大宗商品和成品价格的走低奠定了基础。</blockquote> Finally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.<blockquote>最后，我要说，这将是一些不情愿，尽管我们希望宣布战胜新冠肺炎病毒，但这样做还为时过早。新变种（Delta、Delta plus和现在的Lambda）在美国的出现，加上让70%至80%的美国人口完全接种疫苗的挑战（根据CDC的数据，截至今天，这一数字仅为48%），引发了秋冬季另一波感染的担忧。这也可能会给经济带来一些压力。</blockquote> Our assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.<blockquote>我们的评估是，我们已接近通胀周期的顶峰，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数投票成员都认同这一普遍情绪。随着消费者寻求更多交易，以及企业重新专注于锁定（如果不是扩大）市场份额，推动价格竞争和降低零售价格的力量必然会出现。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-weve-seen-the-peak-of-inflation-for-this-cycle-11626195636?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-weve-seen-the-peak-of-inflation-for-this-cycle-11626195636?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148011457","content_text":"Market share trumps pricing power.\n\nInflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.\nWhat will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?\nThere is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.\nCalculated risk\nBut it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.\nWhat June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.\nAgain, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.\nSo long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.\nHere’s why inflation has peaked\nFirst, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.\nSecond, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.\nThird, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.\nFourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.\nFinally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.\nOur assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5214532,"gmtCreate":1626237692022,"gmtModify":1635229613778,"authorId":3574928367638029,"author":{"id":3574928367638029,"idStr":"3574928367638029","authorId":3574928367638029,"name":"kenong62","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37fd00bd8cea11b8aa1aed6d9ddd9413","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":145488567,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"done","text":"done","html":"done"},{"id":5214544,"gmtCreate":1626237787548,"gmtModify":1635229612492,"authorId":3582098623642517,"author":{"id":3582098623642517,"idStr":"3582098623642517","authorId":3582098623642517,"name":"小虎一飞冲天","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a55a61195830e019abf5d3cc69681b9","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":145488567,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"👍🏼","text":"👍🏼","html":"👍🏼"},{"id":5214726,"gmtCreate":1626239366253,"gmtModify":1635229597824,"authorId":3584655084310997,"author":{"id":3584655084310997,"idStr":"3584655084310997","authorId":3584655084310997,"name":"TSENR3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02c7cd50655930bda46aef01d6a5ad53","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":145488567,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Like, comment and follow me pls","text":"Like, comment and follow me pls","html":"Like, comment and follow me pls"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":145489422,"gmtCreate":1626237343466,"gmtModify":1633928730357,"author":{"id":"3578339613754294","authorId":"3578339613754294","name":"7e08975","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3578339613754294","idStr":"3578339613754294"},"htmlText":"Means stock market will crash?","listText":"Means stock market will crash?","text":"Means stock market will crash?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145489422","repostId":1148011457,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148011457","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626226288,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148011457?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-14 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148011457","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Market share trumps pricing power.\n\nInflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for t","content":" Market share trumps pricing power. Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.<blockquote>市场份额胜过定价权。6月份通胀飙升，但目前已达到或接近本周期的峰值。</blockquote> What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?<blockquote>从现在开始，将决定消费者价格通胀路径的是企业如何回答一个关键问题：保护利润率和保护市场份额哪个更重要？</blockquote> There is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.<blockquote>毫无疑问，投入成本飙升。支付更高的工资来吸引新员工并留住现有员工确实会增加运营费用。在关键商品上的支出增加也是如此。因此，将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户的诱惑很大。</blockquote> Calculated risk<blockquote>计算风险</blockquote> But it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.<blockquote>但这也是一个经过计算的风险。人们总是担心长期客户会离开，转而与突然看到通过降价脱颖而出的机会的竞争对手做生意。如果说各种规模的公司都吸取了一个惨痛的教训，那就是一旦失去市场份额，想要夺回市场份额是极其困难和昂贵的。</blockquote> What June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.<blockquote>6月份消费者价格指数上涨0.9%告诉我们，大多数企业发现他们的运营费用增长太多、太快，根本无法吸收。他们不得不通过向消费者收取更多费用来弥补利润的萎缩。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8661c9e62b57cf95d3d61da103d77a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"710\">Again, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households&nbsp;are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.<blockquote>再说一次，这是一个经过计算的风险，而且可能是安全的…就目前而言！毕竟，家庭现金充裕，渴望消费，这意味着美国人此时不太可能对价格敏感。我们已经几十年没有见过这样的定价权了。过去12个月通胀率上涨5.4%，为2008年夏季以来最快涨幅，核心CPI大幅上涨4.5%，为1991年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote> So long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.<blockquote>只要定价权不威胁市场份额，通胀就会继续攀升。但历史表明，这种情况不会持续太久。价格竞争将在今年下半年重新出现，并在2022年更加激烈，这应该会缓解通胀压力。原因如下。</blockquote> Here’s why inflation has peaked<blockquote>这就是通货膨胀见顶的原因</blockquote> First, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.<blockquote>首先，随着华盛顿从财政刺激转向财政紧缩，我们预计家庭消费将相应缓解。</blockquote> Second, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.<blockquote>其次，过去一年消费者被压抑的需求大幅增加，为经济提供了巨大的前进动力。但随着需求得到满足，这种支出驱动将失去动力。</blockquote> Third, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.<blockquote>第三，毫无疑问，美联储正准备缩减对抵押贷款支持证券和美国国债的购买。无论是今年年底还是明年初开始缩减量化宽松，一旦他们这样做，借贷成本都会增加。这将减缓房屋销售和资本投资。</blockquote> Fourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.<blockquote>第四，上半年的供应链瓶颈开始缓解。货船正在以更快的速度卸货，尤其是在西海岸。物流的改善为大宗商品和成品价格的走低奠定了基础。</blockquote> Finally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.<blockquote>最后，我要说，这将是一些不情愿，尽管我们希望宣布战胜新冠肺炎病毒，但这样做还为时过早。新变种（Delta、Delta plus和现在的Lambda）在美国的出现，加上让70%至80%的美国人口完全接种疫苗的挑战（根据CDC的数据，截至今天，这一数字仅为48%），引发了秋冬季另一波感染的担忧。这也可能会给经济带来一些压力。</blockquote> Our assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.<blockquote>我们的评估是，我们已接近通胀周期的顶峰，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数投票成员都认同这一普遍情绪。随着消费者寻求更多交易，以及企业重新专注于锁定（如果不是扩大）市场份额，推动价格竞争和降低零售价格的力量必然会出现。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-07-14 09:31\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n Market share trumps pricing power. Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.<blockquote>市场份额胜过定价权。6月份通胀飙升，但目前已达到或接近本周期的峰值。</blockquote> What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?<blockquote>从现在开始，将决定消费者价格通胀路径的是企业如何回答一个关键问题：保护利润率和保护市场份额哪个更重要？</blockquote> There is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.<blockquote>毫无疑问，投入成本飙升。支付更高的工资来吸引新员工并留住现有员工确实会增加运营费用。在关键商品上的支出增加也是如此。因此，将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户的诱惑很大。</blockquote> Calculated risk<blockquote>计算风险</blockquote> But it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.<blockquote>但这也是一个经过计算的风险。人们总是担心长期客户会离开，转而与突然看到通过降价脱颖而出的机会的竞争对手做生意。如果说各种规模的公司都吸取了一个惨痛的教训，那就是一旦失去市场份额，想要夺回市场份额是极其困难和昂贵的。</blockquote> What June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.<blockquote>6月份消费者价格指数上涨0.9%告诉我们，大多数企业发现他们的运营费用增长太多、太快，根本无法吸收。他们不得不通过向消费者收取更多费用来弥补利润的萎缩。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8661c9e62b57cf95d3d61da103d77a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"710\">Again, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households&nbsp;are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.<blockquote>再说一次，这是一个经过计算的风险，而且可能是安全的…就目前而言！毕竟，家庭现金充裕，渴望消费，这意味着美国人此时不太可能对价格敏感。我们已经几十年没有见过这样的定价权了。过去12个月通胀率上涨5.4%，为2008年夏季以来最快涨幅，核心CPI大幅上涨4.5%，为1991年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote> So long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.<blockquote>只要定价权不威胁市场份额，通胀就会继续攀升。但历史表明，这种情况不会持续太久。价格竞争将在今年下半年重新出现，并在2022年更加激烈，这应该会缓解通胀压力。原因如下。</blockquote> Here’s why inflation has peaked<blockquote>这就是通货膨胀见顶的原因</blockquote> First, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.<blockquote>首先，随着华盛顿从财政刺激转向财政紧缩，我们预计家庭消费将相应缓解。</blockquote> Second, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.<blockquote>其次，过去一年消费者被压抑的需求大幅增加，为经济提供了巨大的前进动力。但随着需求得到满足，这种支出驱动将失去动力。</blockquote> Third, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.<blockquote>第三，毫无疑问，美联储正准备缩减对抵押贷款支持证券和美国国债的购买。无论是今年年底还是明年初开始缩减量化宽松，一旦他们这样做，借贷成本都会增加。这将减缓房屋销售和资本投资。</blockquote> Fourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.<blockquote>第四，上半年的供应链瓶颈开始缓解。货船正在以更快的速度卸货，尤其是在西海岸。物流的改善为大宗商品和成品价格的走低奠定了基础。</blockquote> Finally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.<blockquote>最后，我要说，这将是一些不情愿，尽管我们希望宣布战胜新冠肺炎病毒，但这样做还为时过早。新变种（Delta、Delta plus和现在的Lambda）在美国的出现，加上让70%至80%的美国人口完全接种疫苗的挑战（根据CDC的数据，截至今天，这一数字仅为48%），引发了秋冬季另一波感染的担忧。这也可能会给经济带来一些压力。</blockquote> Our assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.<blockquote>我们的评估是，我们已接近通胀周期的顶峰，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数投票成员都认同这一普遍情绪。随着消费者寻求更多交易，以及企业重新专注于锁定（如果不是扩大）市场份额，推动价格竞争和降低零售价格的力量必然会出现。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-weve-seen-the-peak-of-inflation-for-this-cycle-11626195636?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-weve-seen-the-peak-of-inflation-for-this-cycle-11626195636?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148011457","content_text":"Market share trumps pricing power.\n\nInflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.\nWhat will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?\nThere is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.\nCalculated risk\nBut it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.\nWhat June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.\nAgain, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.\nSo long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.\nHere’s why inflation has peaked\nFirst, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.\nSecond, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.\nThird, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.\nFourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.\nFinally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.\nOur assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5214729,"gmtCreate":1626239380632,"gmtModify":1635229597512,"authorId":3584655084310997,"author":{"id":3584655084310997,"idStr":"3584655084310997","authorId":3584655084310997,"name":"TSENR3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02c7cd50655930bda46aef01d6a5ad53","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":145489422,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Nope. Hard. Like, comment and follow me pls","text":"Nope. Hard. Like, comment and follow me pls","html":"Nope. Hard. Like, comment and follow me pls"},{"id":5215054,"gmtCreate":1626242245168,"gmtModify":1635229573032,"authorId":3578339613754294,"author":{"id":3578339613754294,"idStr":"3578339613754294","authorId":3578339613754294,"name":"7e08975","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":145489422,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"What you mean by nope, hard?","text":"What you mean by nope, hard?","html":"What you mean by nope, hard?"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":145414439,"gmtCreate":1626237124621,"gmtModify":1633928732257,"author":{"id":"3581857937661016","authorId":"3581857937661016","name":"eikshuan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6aa04fec0e75ff23c4317cddaaf08cb","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3581857937661016","idStr":"3581857937661016"},"htmlText":"Give and take","listText":"Give and take","text":"Give and take","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145414439","repostId":1148011457,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148011457","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626226288,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148011457?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-14 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148011457","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Market share trumps pricing power.\n\nInflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for t","content":" Market share trumps pricing power. Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.<blockquote>市场份额胜过定价权。6月份通胀飙升，但目前已达到或接近本周期的峰值。</blockquote> What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?<blockquote>从现在开始，将决定消费者价格通胀路径的是企业如何回答一个关键问题：保护利润率和保护市场份额哪个更重要？</blockquote> There is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.<blockquote>毫无疑问，投入成本飙升。支付更高的工资来吸引新员工并留住现有员工确实会增加运营费用。在关键商品上的支出增加也是如此。因此，将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户的诱惑很大。</blockquote> Calculated risk<blockquote>计算风险</blockquote> But it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.<blockquote>但这也是一个经过计算的风险。人们总是担心长期客户会离开，转而与突然看到通过降价脱颖而出的机会的竞争对手做生意。如果说各种规模的公司都吸取了一个惨痛的教训，那就是一旦失去市场份额，想要夺回市场份额是极其困难和昂贵的。</blockquote> What June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.<blockquote>6月份消费者价格指数上涨0.9%告诉我们，大多数企业发现他们的运营费用增长太多、太快，根本无法吸收。他们不得不通过向消费者收取更多费用来弥补利润的萎缩。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8661c9e62b57cf95d3d61da103d77a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"710\">Again, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households&nbsp;are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.<blockquote>再说一次，这是一个经过计算的风险，而且可能是安全的…就目前而言！毕竟，家庭现金充裕，渴望消费，这意味着美国人此时不太可能对价格敏感。我们已经几十年没有见过这样的定价权了。过去12个月通胀率上涨5.4%，为2008年夏季以来最快涨幅，核心CPI大幅上涨4.5%，为1991年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote> So long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.<blockquote>只要定价权不威胁市场份额，通胀就会继续攀升。但历史表明，这种情况不会持续太久。价格竞争将在今年下半年重新出现，并在2022年更加激烈，这应该会缓解通胀压力。原因如下。</blockquote> Here’s why inflation has peaked<blockquote>这就是通货膨胀见顶的原因</blockquote> First, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.<blockquote>首先，随着华盛顿从财政刺激转向财政紧缩，我们预计家庭消费将相应缓解。</blockquote> Second, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.<blockquote>其次，过去一年消费者被压抑的需求大幅增加，为经济提供了巨大的前进动力。但随着需求得到满足，这种支出驱动将失去动力。</blockquote> Third, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.<blockquote>第三，毫无疑问，美联储正准备缩减对抵押贷款支持证券和美国国债的购买。无论是今年年底还是明年初开始缩减量化宽松，一旦他们这样做，借贷成本都会增加。这将减缓房屋销售和资本投资。</blockquote> Fourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.<blockquote>第四，上半年的供应链瓶颈开始缓解。货船正在以更快的速度卸货，尤其是在西海岸。物流的改善为大宗商品和成品价格的走低奠定了基础。</blockquote> Finally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.<blockquote>最后，我要说，这将是一些不情愿，尽管我们希望宣布战胜新冠肺炎病毒，但这样做还为时过早。新变种（Delta、Delta plus和现在的Lambda）在美国的出现，加上让70%至80%的美国人口完全接种疫苗的挑战（根据CDC的数据，截至今天，这一数字仅为48%），引发了秋冬季另一波感染的担忧。这也可能会给经济带来一些压力。</blockquote> Our assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.<blockquote>我们的评估是，我们已接近通胀周期的顶峰，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数投票成员都认同这一普遍情绪。随着消费者寻求更多交易，以及企业重新专注于锁定（如果不是扩大）市场份额，推动价格竞争和降低零售价格的力量必然会出现。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-07-14 09:31\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n Market share trumps pricing power. Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.<blockquote>市场份额胜过定价权。6月份通胀飙升，但目前已达到或接近本周期的峰值。</blockquote> What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?<blockquote>从现在开始，将决定消费者价格通胀路径的是企业如何回答一个关键问题：保护利润率和保护市场份额哪个更重要？</blockquote> There is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.<blockquote>毫无疑问，投入成本飙升。支付更高的工资来吸引新员工并留住现有员工确实会增加运营费用。在关键商品上的支出增加也是如此。因此，将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户的诱惑很大。</blockquote> Calculated risk<blockquote>计算风险</blockquote> But it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.<blockquote>但这也是一个经过计算的风险。人们总是担心长期客户会离开，转而与突然看到通过降价脱颖而出的机会的竞争对手做生意。如果说各种规模的公司都吸取了一个惨痛的教训，那就是一旦失去市场份额，想要夺回市场份额是极其困难和昂贵的。</blockquote> What June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.<blockquote>6月份消费者价格指数上涨0.9%告诉我们，大多数企业发现他们的运营费用增长太多、太快，根本无法吸收。他们不得不通过向消费者收取更多费用来弥补利润的萎缩。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8661c9e62b57cf95d3d61da103d77a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"710\">Again, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households&nbsp;are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.<blockquote>再说一次，这是一个经过计算的风险，而且可能是安全的…就目前而言！毕竟，家庭现金充裕，渴望消费，这意味着美国人此时不太可能对价格敏感。我们已经几十年没有见过这样的定价权了。过去12个月通胀率上涨5.4%，为2008年夏季以来最快涨幅，核心CPI大幅上涨4.5%，为1991年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote> So long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.<blockquote>只要定价权不威胁市场份额，通胀就会继续攀升。但历史表明，这种情况不会持续太久。价格竞争将在今年下半年重新出现，并在2022年更加激烈，这应该会缓解通胀压力。原因如下。</blockquote> Here’s why inflation has peaked<blockquote>这就是通货膨胀见顶的原因</blockquote> First, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.<blockquote>首先，随着华盛顿从财政刺激转向财政紧缩，我们预计家庭消费将相应缓解。</blockquote> Second, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.<blockquote>其次，过去一年消费者被压抑的需求大幅增加，为经济提供了巨大的前进动力。但随着需求得到满足，这种支出驱动将失去动力。</blockquote> Third, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.<blockquote>第三，毫无疑问，美联储正准备缩减对抵押贷款支持证券和美国国债的购买。无论是今年年底还是明年初开始缩减量化宽松，一旦他们这样做，借贷成本都会增加。这将减缓房屋销售和资本投资。</blockquote> Fourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.<blockquote>第四，上半年的供应链瓶颈开始缓解。货船正在以更快的速度卸货，尤其是在西海岸。物流的改善为大宗商品和成品价格的走低奠定了基础。</blockquote> Finally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.<blockquote>最后，我要说，这将是一些不情愿，尽管我们希望宣布战胜新冠肺炎病毒，但这样做还为时过早。新变种（Delta、Delta plus和现在的Lambda）在美国的出现，加上让70%至80%的美国人口完全接种疫苗的挑战（根据CDC的数据，截至今天，这一数字仅为48%），引发了秋冬季另一波感染的担忧。这也可能会给经济带来一些压力。</blockquote> Our assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.<blockquote>我们的评估是，我们已接近通胀周期的顶峰，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数投票成员都认同这一普遍情绪。随着消费者寻求更多交易，以及企业重新专注于锁定（如果不是扩大）市场份额，推动价格竞争和降低零售价格的力量必然会出现。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-weve-seen-the-peak-of-inflation-for-this-cycle-11626195636?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-weve-seen-the-peak-of-inflation-for-this-cycle-11626195636?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148011457","content_text":"Market share trumps pricing power.\n\nInflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.\nWhat will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?\nThere is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.\nCalculated risk\nBut it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.\nWhat June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.\nAgain, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.\nSo long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.\nHere’s why inflation has peaked\nFirst, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.\nSecond, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.\nThird, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.\nFourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.\nFinally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.\nOur assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5214524,"gmtCreate":1626237654471,"gmtModify":1635229614321,"authorId":3568986316793949,"author":{"id":3568986316793949,"idStr":"3568986316793949","authorId":3568986316793949,"name":"Simbax","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":145414439,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"liked","text":"liked","html":"liked"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":145416895,"gmtCreate":1626236776517,"gmtModify":1633928734302,"author":{"id":"3577347851898435","authorId":"3577347851898435","name":"MarketPulse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6b16f1b86e7977d1bb375d78b71b51d","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3577347851898435","idStr":"3577347851898435"},"htmlText":"This make sense&nbsp;","listText":"This make sense&nbsp;","text":"This make sense","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145416895","repostId":1148011457,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148011457","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626226288,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148011457?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-14 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148011457","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Market share trumps pricing power.\n\nInflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for t","content":" Market share trumps pricing power. Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.<blockquote>市场份额胜过定价权。6月份通胀飙升，但目前已达到或接近本周期的峰值。</blockquote> What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?<blockquote>从现在开始，将决定消费者价格通胀路径的是企业如何回答一个关键问题：保护利润率和保护市场份额哪个更重要？</blockquote> There is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.<blockquote>毫无疑问，投入成本飙升。支付更高的工资来吸引新员工并留住现有员工确实会增加运营费用。在关键商品上的支出增加也是如此。因此，将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户的诱惑很大。</blockquote> Calculated risk<blockquote>计算风险</blockquote> But it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.<blockquote>但这也是一个经过计算的风险。人们总是担心长期客户会离开，转而与突然看到通过降价脱颖而出的机会的竞争对手做生意。如果说各种规模的公司都吸取了一个惨痛的教训，那就是一旦失去市场份额，想要夺回市场份额是极其困难和昂贵的。</blockquote> What June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.<blockquote>6月份消费者价格指数上涨0.9%告诉我们，大多数企业发现他们的运营费用增长太多、太快，根本无法吸收。他们不得不通过向消费者收取更多费用来弥补利润的萎缩。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8661c9e62b57cf95d3d61da103d77a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"710\">Again, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households&nbsp;are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.<blockquote>再说一次，这是一个经过计算的风险，而且可能是安全的…就目前而言！毕竟，家庭现金充裕，渴望消费，这意味着美国人此时不太可能对价格敏感。我们已经几十年没有见过这样的定价权了。过去12个月通胀率上涨5.4%，为2008年夏季以来最快涨幅，核心CPI大幅上涨4.5%，为1991年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote> So long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.<blockquote>只要定价权不威胁市场份额，通胀就会继续攀升。但历史表明，这种情况不会持续太久。价格竞争将在今年下半年重新出现，并在2022年更加激烈，这应该会缓解通胀压力。原因如下。</blockquote> Here’s why inflation has peaked<blockquote>这就是通货膨胀见顶的原因</blockquote> First, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.<blockquote>首先，随着华盛顿从财政刺激转向财政紧缩，我们预计家庭消费将相应缓解。</blockquote> Second, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.<blockquote>其次，过去一年消费者被压抑的需求大幅增加，为经济提供了巨大的前进动力。但随着需求得到满足，这种支出驱动将失去动力。</blockquote> Third, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.<blockquote>第三，毫无疑问，美联储正准备缩减对抵押贷款支持证券和美国国债的购买。无论是今年年底还是明年初开始缩减量化宽松，一旦他们这样做，借贷成本都会增加。这将减缓房屋销售和资本投资。</blockquote> Fourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.<blockquote>第四，上半年的供应链瓶颈开始缓解。货船正在以更快的速度卸货，尤其是在西海岸。物流的改善为大宗商品和成品价格的走低奠定了基础。</blockquote> Finally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.<blockquote>最后，我要说，这将是一些不情愿，尽管我们希望宣布战胜新冠肺炎病毒，但这样做还为时过早。新变种（Delta、Delta plus和现在的Lambda）在美国的出现，加上让70%至80%的美国人口完全接种疫苗的挑战（根据CDC的数据，截至今天，这一数字仅为48%），引发了秋冬季另一波感染的担忧。这也可能会给经济带来一些压力。</blockquote> Our assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.<blockquote>我们的评估是，我们已接近通胀周期的顶峰，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数投票成员都认同这一普遍情绪。随着消费者寻求更多交易，以及企业重新专注于锁定（如果不是扩大）市场份额，推动价格竞争和降低零售价格的力量必然会出现。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快将成为历史——因为公司将牺牲利润来换取市场份额</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-07-14 09:31\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n Market share trumps pricing power. Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.<blockquote>市场份额胜过定价权。6月份通胀飙升，但目前已达到或接近本周期的峰值。</blockquote> What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?<blockquote>从现在开始，将决定消费者价格通胀路径的是企业如何回答一个关键问题：保护利润率和保护市场份额哪个更重要？</blockquote> There is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.<blockquote>毫无疑问，投入成本飙升。支付更高的工资来吸引新员工并留住现有员工确实会增加运营费用。在关键商品上的支出增加也是如此。因此，将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户的诱惑很大。</blockquote> Calculated risk<blockquote>计算风险</blockquote> But it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.<blockquote>但这也是一个经过计算的风险。人们总是担心长期客户会离开，转而与突然看到通过降价脱颖而出的机会的竞争对手做生意。如果说各种规模的公司都吸取了一个惨痛的教训，那就是一旦失去市场份额，想要夺回市场份额是极其困难和昂贵的。</blockquote> What June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.<blockquote>6月份消费者价格指数上涨0.9%告诉我们，大多数企业发现他们的运营费用增长太多、太快，根本无法吸收。他们不得不通过向消费者收取更多费用来弥补利润的萎缩。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8661c9e62b57cf95d3d61da103d77a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"710\">Again, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households&nbsp;are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.<blockquote>再说一次，这是一个经过计算的风险，而且可能是安全的…就目前而言！毕竟，家庭现金充裕，渴望消费，这意味着美国人此时不太可能对价格敏感。我们已经几十年没有见过这样的定价权了。过去12个月通胀率上涨5.4%，为2008年夏季以来最快涨幅，核心CPI大幅上涨4.5%，为1991年以来最大涨幅。</blockquote> So long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.<blockquote>只要定价权不威胁市场份额，通胀就会继续攀升。但历史表明，这种情况不会持续太久。价格竞争将在今年下半年重新出现，并在2022年更加激烈，这应该会缓解通胀压力。原因如下。</blockquote> Here’s why inflation has peaked<blockquote>这就是通货膨胀见顶的原因</blockquote> First, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.<blockquote>首先，随着华盛顿从财政刺激转向财政紧缩，我们预计家庭消费将相应缓解。</blockquote> Second, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.<blockquote>其次，过去一年消费者被压抑的需求大幅增加，为经济提供了巨大的前进动力。但随着需求得到满足，这种支出驱动将失去动力。</blockquote> Third, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.<blockquote>第三，毫无疑问，美联储正准备缩减对抵押贷款支持证券和美国国债的购买。无论是今年年底还是明年初开始缩减量化宽松，一旦他们这样做，借贷成本都会增加。这将减缓房屋销售和资本投资。</blockquote> Fourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.<blockquote>第四，上半年的供应链瓶颈开始缓解。货船正在以更快的速度卸货，尤其是在西海岸。物流的改善为大宗商品和成品价格的走低奠定了基础。</blockquote> Finally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.<blockquote>最后，我要说，这将是一些不情愿，尽管我们希望宣布战胜新冠肺炎病毒，但这样做还为时过早。新变种（Delta、Delta plus和现在的Lambda）在美国的出现，加上让70%至80%的美国人口完全接种疫苗的挑战（根据CDC的数据，截至今天，这一数字仅为48%），引发了秋冬季另一波感染的担忧。这也可能会给经济带来一些压力。</blockquote> Our assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.<blockquote>我们的评估是，我们已接近通胀周期的顶峰，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数投票成员都认同这一普遍情绪。随着消费者寻求更多交易，以及企业重新专注于锁定（如果不是扩大）市场份额，推动价格竞争和降低零售价格的力量必然会出现。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-weve-seen-the-peak-of-inflation-for-this-cycle-11626195636?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-weve-seen-the-peak-of-inflation-for-this-cycle-11626195636?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148011457","content_text":"Market share trumps pricing power.\n\nInflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.\nWhat will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?\nThere is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.\nCalculated risk\nBut it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.\nWhat June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.\nAgain, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.\nSo long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.\nHere’s why inflation has peaked\nFirst, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.\nSecond, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.\nThird, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.\nFourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.\nFinally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.\nOur assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5215111,"gmtCreate":1626242709299,"gmtModify":1635229569269,"authorId":3582151259867940,"author":{"id":3582151259867940,"idStr":"3582151259867940","authorId":3582151259867940,"name":"KTtrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b53000e916c2327a5f2018e8dd96508","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":145416895,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Agree \n Market correction to come?","text":"Agree \n Market correction to come?","html":"Agree \n Market correction to come?"},{"id":5215251,"gmtCreate":1626244303103,"gmtModify":1635229560259,"authorId":3577347851898435,"author":{"id":3577347851898435,"idStr":"3577347851898435","authorId":3577347851898435,"name":"MarketPulse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6b16f1b86e7977d1bb375d78b71b51d","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":145416895,"type":1,"supId":5215111,"prevId":0,"content":"Maybe, it also depands on news from FEDs","text":"Maybe, it also depands on news from FEDs","html":"Maybe, it also depands on news from FEDs"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":282,"commentSize":37,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}