末日博士鲁比尼：美股自欺欺人，V型复苏只是错觉_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

末日博士鲁比尼：美股自欺欺人，V型复苏只是错觉

腾讯美股2020-06-19

鲁比尼（Nouriel Roubini）是全球最具知名度的经济学家之一。十多年前，这位纽约大学教授是少数准确预测到房地产泡沫破灭和之后金融危机的人之一，而十多年后，他也是早早就警告说，新冠病毒疫情将造成极为严重的经济后果。当下，各国股市，尤其是美国股市的投资者，似乎已经将他的警告抛到了脑后。在全球经济V型复苏的预期支撑下，美股现在已经恢复到与年初大致相当的水平。然而，在最新一期《明镜》周刊的访谈...

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免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

敏敏猪__
·2020-06-20
美国经济不好，其他地方都别想好过…还是希望美国好吧。
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年轻韭菜
·2020-06-20
永远唱空的美国李大霄
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3
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不合格的投资者
·2020-06-20
鲁比尼讲了好几年，天天讲年年讲总有一天实现。
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4
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ERIC2020520
·2020-06-20
厉害👍🏻
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行天下639800
·2020-06-20
有做多的就有做空的。看将来美股总有一天会大跌。
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天天天天涨停板
·2020-06-20
总是有种感觉，他的话是被截取了部分内容的，他既然是个知名的经济学家，不可能这么片面的看待一个问题，他可能会忧虑，就像鲍威尔一样的，忧虑这次经济出现的新状况，不代表着就一定是断言。但这些话真的像断言，口吻很像内地证券分析师，所以感觉到内容是被修正过的[捂脸]
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bleey
·2020-06-20
美国75%的人不拥有股票？瞎扯淡，只能说不直接持有股票，老美绝大多数人的各种退休账户都间接投资于股市，所以股市不能倒
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4
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郝医生
·2020-06-20
跟着他做空的都惨了。这什么危言耸听的话…
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2
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阿莫西林克拉维酸钾
·2020-06-19
这个搞笑末日博士前年到今年我关注他的言论就没一次预测对的。
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- bleey:
  一直空下去，总有一次会准的，呵呵
  2020-06-20
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别人家的老公
·2020-06-19
这么不看好赶紧梭哈三倍做空去啊。
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-06-19
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MR. No
·2020-06-19
[冷漠]
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1
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圣地麦加
·2020-06-19
吓得我裤子都掉了，买了几手call压压惊。
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7
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Kurtski
·2020-06-19
人不是神，未来的事只有未来的人才知道。
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2
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White_2795
·2020-06-19
持续20年的大萧条，保守时代到来
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2
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龙飞凤舞1
·2020-06-19
鲁大霄？
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6
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- 积少成多啊:
  没错
  2020-06-19
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DonaldMalone
·2020-06-19
都是靠运气预测
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6
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- MR. No:
  [冷漠]你知道的太多了~
  2020-06-19
  回复
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-06-19
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卡尔洋
·2020-06-19
扯他妈的卵蛋，通篇胡说八道
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2
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猛逃
·2020-06-19
当人们战战兢兢的时候⋯⋯ 正是⋯⋯(后省略八字）[得意]
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1
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- 巴依老爷的奶奶:
  l
  lpp
  2020-06-20
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- MR. No:
  [冷漠]你知道的太多了~
  2020-06-19
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独立分析师
·2020-06-19
虽然近期美股回调压力大，并且七月更应该谨慎。但是，对于这个鲁比尼，务必不能信。这个人看空2007和2008确实蒙对了，但此人2009-2019几乎是看空美股十年。一直看空，必然会有正确的概率，鲁比尼就是这类人。$百度(BIDU)$ $网易(NTES)$ $微软(MSFT)$ $AMD(AMD)$ $京东(JD)$ $道琼斯(.DJI)$ $特斯拉(TSLA)$ $谷歌A(GOOGL)$ $Facebook(FB)$ $Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ $苹果(AAPL)$
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- MR. No:
  [冷漠]
  2020-06-19
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- penta_kill:
  他该来一直看空A股，这样蒙对的概率就大多了
  2020-06-19
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- 两点钟:
  他看空了这么多年啊
  2020-06-19
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KINGLEBEONJ
·2020-06-19
我觉得有道理，一些餐馆都破产了。这是真的。
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V-shaped recovery is just an illusion.","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f334ab2725134aec1da7c09cae7ec498","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"鲁比尼（Nouriel Roubini）是全球最具知名度的经济学家之一。十多年前，这位纽约大学教授是少数准确预测到房地产泡沫破灭和之后金融危机的人之一，而十多年后，他也是早早就警告说，新冠病毒疫情将造成极为严重的经济后果。当下，各国股市，尤其是美国股市的投资者，似乎已经将他的警告抛到了脑后。在全球经济V型复苏的预期支撑下，美股现在已经恢复到与年初大致相当的水平。然而，在最新一期《明镜》周刊的访谈当中，鲁比尼再度发出了警告，指出这种预期根本就是站不住脚的。事实就是，无论对于美国还是欧洲经济而言，这个漫长而又炎热的夏季注定难熬。以下即鲁比尼的访谈全文问：现在，新冠病毒疫情已经重创了全球经济，数以百万计的人失去了自己的工作。这场危机的严重程度已经可以和1930年代大萧条相提并论了吗？答：今天的崩溃局面甚至要比那时更加严重。当初从1929年开始，危机彻底显现出来其实是耗费了若干年的时间，然而今天，一切简直像是列车失事的慢动作播放。现在，全球经济几周之内就宣告崩溃，单单在美国，就有超过4000万人失业。许多人都相信，经济将迅速卷土重来，但这其实是一种谬误。问：这就是说，虽然有规模惊人的刺激计划的出台，但是你并不相信所谓V型复苏的预测。可是，5月间，就新增了250万就业机会。答：当然，我们在今年下半年是可能看到某种程度的反弹的。只不过，那不会是真正的反弹，而只会是一种错觉。经济的下滑是如此陡峭，因此到了某个节点有所反弹，其实是必然的事情。只是，这样的变化根本不足以抵消之前巨大的崩溃。即便到了2021年的年底，美国经济预计将仍然不及2020年年初的水平，毕竟太多东西都分崩离析了。到那时，失业率预计将依然居于16%或者17%的样子——要知道，在上次金融危机期间，失业率也不过只有10%。5月间固然新增了240万非农支薪人口，但是在之前的几个月当中，已经有足足4200万人丢掉了工作。真实失业率其实要比官方数字显示的高得多。问：股市显然不是像你这样看待眼前局面的，股价现在已经基本涨到了和今年年初相当的高度。答：股市是在自欺欺人。投资者押注，赌的是还会有进一步的大规模经济政策出台，赌的是企业利润实现V型复苏。可是，对于当前的美国而言，股市已经变成了某种没有意义的存在。问：美国人从什么开始变得不再在意股市的？答：在华尔街，调子是由大企业的股票来定的，尤其是银行和科技板块。这个国家不可能允许大银行和大科技公司完蛋，所以他们肯定会平安度过危机。当然，他们也会被迫裁员，削减成本，但是到最后，他们手中的市场权力将变得比过去更为强大。可是，在所谓“主街”，也就是中小企业这边，就没有那么好的运气了。这些企业正在走向破产。我估计，平均每一秒钟，纽约城就有一家餐厅关张，但是麦当劳肯定能够活下来。当然，问题还不仅限于此。问：还有呢？答：最富有的10%美国人掌握着80%的股市财富，而75%的美国人手中没有任何股票。美联储的调查研究还发现，40%的美国人在紧急状况下连400美元都拿不出来。我们现在正在经历紧急状况。整个系统已经生病了，现在那么多人走上街头，本质上也是因为这个。问：你的意思是说，现在的反种族主义抗议活动，是有着社会因素背景的？答：当然！我居住在下曼哈顿的包厘街，在这里，四分之三的示威者都是白人。他们许多人都很年轻，属于所谓城市“不稳定无产者”。在发达国家当中，这个人群已经取代了“无产阶级”，即过去的体力劳动者，成为了新的底层。他们虽然往往也有大学学历，但是从事的往往都是临时工、短工、小时工、零工和独立合同人这样的工作。这些人不属于标准的全职就业者，足足三个月都没有接受到国家层面的财富转移了。现在，他们连房租和话费都交不起了，至于水电，很多人都已经被断掉了。他们正在走入一个漫长而炎热的夏季。问：这是否意味着，特朗普连任成功的概率将会大幅度降低？答：完全正确。不过，拜登必须以非常大的优势胜出，才能确保特朗普乖乖认输。不过，我认为这一幕不大可能成为现实。更加可能的两种局面是：一，特朗普虽然在白人劳工群体当中的支持率有所降低，但他还是能够以最小的优势保住白宫的办公室；二，特朗普以很小的劣势落败，但是他拒绝接受这一结果。问：你的意思是说，他会设置种种障碍，阻止拜登接收白宫？答：当然如此。只是，特朗普不会像当年的戈尔那样，在一些地区选票极为接近的情况下诉诸最高法院，要求重新计票。相反，他会指责其他的国家，指责黑人或者移民，像那些“香蕉共和国”的独裁者一样。他会号召自己的支持者武装起来——荷枪实弹的白人法西斯分子，美国已经颇有不少了。他事实上经常提醒自己的支持者，宪法第二修正案允许美国人拥枪。问：那种场景就实在太可怕了。特朗普恐怕也会把经济问题的锅甩到美联储头上。他现在就希望美联储进一步降低利率。答：美联储现在其实已经做了太多本不该做或不必做的事情。他们向市场注入海量的流动性，拯救了银行、金融投资者、对冲基金、资产经理人。在短期内，为了避免发生通货紧缩，这样做还无可厚非。可是，现在美国的债务水平是如此之高，以至于如果利率不是超低，政府和企业就无法进行再融资。为了确保不出麻烦，美联储大量购买债券，推高后者的价格，以打压利率。长期角度看来，问题就在于，美联储的这种操作是无法退出的。现在，美联储和全球各大其他央行都是处在完全相同的困境当中。问：你是否在说，央行们已经丧失掉了独立性？答：显而易见。看吧，2018年12月时，美联储主席鲍威尔宣布他将要提高利率，同时停止购债，以缩减资产负债表规模。结果就是，股市应声大跌20%。鲍威尔被迫迅速改弦更张，而现在，美联储资产负债表的规模已经两倍于当时。长期角度说来，这一切最终必将导致通货膨胀抬头。问：在如此众多的人群失业，经济并没有真正开始增长的情况下，怎么可能会爆发通胀问题呢？答：因为我们将经历一场供应面的严重打击。听起来，这说法似乎有点过于技术性了，但是解释起来并不复杂。问：请继续讲一下。答：多年以来，全球化一直强力压制着劳动力和生产成本，哪怕是只看印度和中国拥有25亿廉价劳动力这一事实，你就可以很容易明白这一点。可是，金融危机以来，全球化已经走过了其顶点，开始下行，而疫情的大爆发又加剧了这一趋势。我们正在目睹“再国家化”，目睹全球供应链的重置，目睹国际贸易局势再度走向紧张。问：因此你认为价格会全面上涨？答：我们可以拿5G技术做例子。与华为的技术相比，诺基亚和爱立信的价格要高30%，效率却要低20%。这也就意味着，一个国家出于某种理由要抵制华为的5G，那么，对于他们而言，各种终端产品的价格便会自动上涨。这些最终总会指向通货膨胀。问：可是，在那种情况下，利率难道不是就必须要提高了吗？答：教科书会给出肯定的回答，但是在现实中，这样的事情却不会发生。不然的话，各个国家和企业的预算和资产负债表就将被轰成粉碎。问：欧洲突然做出以债务货币化稳定经济的决定，你对他们这一做法的力度感到吃惊吗？答：一点都不吃惊。毕竟，一切都是为了确保欧元区的完整和继续存在。如果不采取这样的非常手段，那些外围国家，尤其是意大利，恐怕就要陷入崩溃，离开统一货币区。到那时才是真的完蛋了。问：德国和法国计划联手推出5000亿欧元的援助计划，而德国财政部长朔尔茨（Olaf Scholz）宣称，这意味着欧洲来到了“汉密尔顿时刻”。汉密尔顿（Alexander Hamilton）是美国首任财长，美国财政体系的奠基人。朔尔茨是否有点夸大其词了？答：当然，他是言过其实了。这个计划本身很好，很靠谱，但是说就此可以奠定欧洲联邦国家的基础就过分了，因为有两个关键的先决条件未能满足。首先是债务共同化——现在，意大利的债务依然只是意大利自家的。其次是一个相对于欧元区国内生产总值，达到足够规模的共同预算，比如占比20%到30%，而现在实际上只有2%。问：从德国的立场上看，德国政府这一次的决定已经称得起是革命性的了。答：你总不能对一切都说不！柏林如果总是一方面反对欧盟预算增长，反对欧洲央行扮演更重要的角色，一方面却对之前的努力始终无法取得进展感到吃惊，那可是不行的。这样下去，欧洲就完蛋了！好在，默克尔总理这次及时意识到了局面的危急程度。与此同时，她的支持率如此之高，又给了她推动一切通过的资本。事实上，我非常怀疑如果拖到默克尔的继任者，不管是谁成为政党领袖和总理，恐怕都不可能做到这一点了。问：不过，下一场危机现在已经隐隐出现在地平线上了——英国脱欧。英国人会再度要求延长过渡期吗？答：我经常会接触到英国下院的人们，而我的印象就是，他们显然是倾向于硬脱欧的。伦敦并不愿意接受一个类似欧盟与加拿大之间那样的自由贸易协定，英国政府其实是想要干干净净的一刀两断。当然，这有点疯狂。到那时，货车会在海关排起大队，欧洲股市会暴跌，英国经济和欧元区经济都会遭到重创，差别只是程度而已。问：是否还有什么能够让你看到希望的地方？答：说到这个，我可需要好好想一想。面对疫情和其后续影响，各国政府的反应速度和力度还是可圈可点的。可是，除此之外呢？我很是担心到最后，2020年代将带着厄运和灾难的标签被载入史册。也许在这个十年结束之后，全球经济将拥有更好的可持续性。可是现在，眼前全是阴云密布。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":954915268,"gmtCreate":1592630389754,"gmtModify":1704199968113,"author":{"id":"3546454679808505","authorId":"3546454679808505","name":"敏敏猪__","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58aef48920132ac7fcbf055ca967ddd","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"美国经济不好，其他地方都别想好过…还是希望美国好吧。","listText":"美国经济不好，其他地方都别想好过…还是希望美国好吧。","text":"美国经济不好，其他地方都别想好过…还是希望美国好吧。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/954915268","repostId":1147841401,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":954907383,"gmtCreate":1592608420742,"gmtModify":1704199930647,"author":{"id":"3493269181536431","authorId":"3493269181536431","name":"年轻韭菜","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"永远唱空的美国李大霄","listText":"永远唱空的美国李大霄","text":"永远唱空的美国李大霄","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/954907383","repostId":1147841401,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":954907948,"gmtCreate":1592608394784,"gmtModify":1704199930995,"author":{"id":"3539256142590482","authorId":"3539256142590482","name":"不合格的投资者","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"鲁比尼讲了好几年，天天讲年年讲总有一天实现。","listText":"鲁比尼讲了好几年，天天讲年年讲总有一天实现。","text":"鲁比尼讲了好几年，天天讲年年讲总有一天实现。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/954907948","repostId":1147841401,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":954908392,"gmtCreate":1592603518216,"gmtModify":1704199924616,"author":{"id":"3553231417553161","authorId":"3553231417553161","name":"ERIC2020520","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb088dbd0225aaa433f6d2eb54db7ced","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eec1894d24f295622b8891594288edf1","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"厉害👍🏻","listText":"厉害👍🏻","text":"厉害👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/954908392","repostId":1147841401,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":954900699,"gmtCreate":1592596935711,"gmtModify":1704199919792,"author":{"id":"3444732750101190","authorId":"3444732750101190","name":"行天下639800","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/7a9872d82227fdf805e09770cb2961a8","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"有做多的就有做空的。看将来美股总有一天会大跌。","listText":"有做多的就有做空的。看将来美股总有一天会大跌。","text":"有做多的就有做空的。看将来美股总有一天会大跌。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/954900699","repostId":1147841401,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":954042273,"gmtCreate":1592586118292,"gmtModify":1704199902874,"author":{"id":"3513743822381928","authorId":"3513743822381928","name":"天天天天涨停板","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90d3bcdd2c49a8ec314d84d8d0f1b24e","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"总是有种感觉，他的话是被截取了部分内容的，他既然是个知名的经济学家，不可能这么片面的看待一个问题，他可能会忧虑，就像鲍威尔一样的，忧虑这次经济出现的新状况，不代表着就一定是断言。但这些话真的像断言，口吻很像内地证券分析师，所以感觉到内容是被修正过的[捂脸]&nbsp;","listText":"总是有种感觉，他的话是被截取了部分内容的，他既然是个知名的经济学家，不可能这么片面的看待一个问题，他可能会忧虑，就像鲍威尔一样的，忧虑这次经济出现的新状况，不代表着就一定是断言。但这些话真的像断言，口吻很像内地证券分析师，所以感觉到内容是被修正过的[捂脸]&nbsp;","text":"总是有种感觉，他的话是被截取了部分内容的，他既然是个知名的经济学家，不可能这么片面的看待一个问题，他可能会忧虑，就像鲍威尔一样的，忧虑这次经济出现的新状况，不代表着就一定是断言。但这些话真的像断言，口吻很像内地证券分析师，所以感觉到内容是被修正过的[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8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