Warren Buffett's favorite stock market indicator isn't alone in hinting stocks are due for a breather_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

Warren Buffett's favorite stock market indicator isn't alone in hinting stocks are due for a breather

finance.yahoo2021-07-01

The stock market is entering the danger zone, according to one often overlooked measure of equities valuation. At its current level of 38 times, the Shiller P/E Ratio is nearing the peak (44 times) ...

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mrqwerty8808
·2021-07-01
Dont understand
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Casssq
·2021-07-01
🤩
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Darylzhuo
·2021-07-01
Please like and comment pls. Thank you
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- Pplymm:
  Done pls return
  2021-07-01
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AndreR93
·2021-07-01
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- Darylzhuo:
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Created by noted Yale professor Robert Shiller, the ratio is seen as better than the traditional P/E ratio as it adjusts for inflation.\nHistorically, a Shiller PE ratio sustained over 25 times has gone on to be a precursor for sizable pullbacks in the market as presented in the below chart by Sundial Capital Research.\nMarkets look long overdue for a corrections, hints the Shiller P/E Ratio.\nThe team at Sundial is quick to point out that no stock market measure is fool proof or all predictive.\n\"That the stock market is 'overvalued' DOES NOT mean investors need to take drastic action immediately. Because the reality is that the stock market can (and, in fact, has been) overvalued for many years,\" explains Sundial.\nThe group added, \"The current high reading for the Shiller P/E is NOT a 'call to action.' It is more of a 'call to pay close attention.' There are always 'things' to be concerned about that may upset the apple cart.\"\nIn other words, don't sell all your stocks and hide the cash under your bed.\nThat said if you aren't inclined to be a big believer in the Shiller P/E Ratio (count my colleagueMyles Udlandin that camp,watch videoabove), perhaps a closely watched measure by theWarren \"Oracle of Omaha\" Buffettis more in lockstep with your analytical views.\nThe “Buffett Indicator” as it’s called in Wall Street circles — which takes the Wilshire 5000 Index (viewed as the total stock market) and divides it by the annual U.S. GDP — is still seemingly hitting new record highs daily. In crunching the numbers, the Buffett Indicator stands at about 204.4% — up sharply from the 187.5% level (also a record) from when we last wrote about the measure in late February. All data comes to us fromGuruFocus, which extensively tracks the indicator.\nThe existing figure remains well above the 159.2% seen just before the dot-com bubble.\n“The stock market is significantly overvalued according to the Buffett Indicator,” said the researchers at GuruFocus. “Based on the historical ratio of total market cap over GDP (the aforementioned 204.4%), it is likely to return -3.3% a year from this level of valuation, including dividends.”\nThe Buffett Indicator rose to fame after a2001 Fortune Magazine articlewritten by Buffett and long-time Fortune writer and Buffett insider Carol Loomis.\n“The ratio has certain limitations in telling you what you need to know. Still, it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment,” explained Buffett in the article.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":158343538,"gmtCreate":1625131896524,"gmtModify":1631892694217,"author":{"id":"3585719144864945","authorId":"3585719144864945","name":"mrqwerty8808","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3585719144864945","idStr":"3585719144864945"},"htmlText":"Dont understand","listText":"Dont understand","text":"Dont understand","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158343538","repostId":1147390885,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147390885","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625119868,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147390885?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-01 14:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Warren Buffett's favorite stock market indicator isn't alone in hinting stocks are due for a breather<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特最喜欢的股市指标并不是唯一一个暗示股市即将喘息的指标</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147390885","media":"finance.yahoo","summary":"The stock market is entering the danger zone, according to one often overlooked measure of equities ","content":"The stock market is entering the danger zone, according to one often overlooked measure of equities valuation.<blockquote>根据一项经常被忽视的股票估值指标，股市正在进入危险区域。</blockquote> At its current level of 38 times, the Shiller P/E Ratio is nearing the peak (44 times) seen at the height just before the dot-com bust in 2000, write strategists atSunDial Capital Research. Created by noted Yale professor Robert Shiller, the ratio is seen as better than the traditional P/E ratio as it adjusts for inflation.<blockquote>Sundial Capital Research的策略师写道，席勒市盈率目前为38倍，已接近2000年互联网泡沫破灭前的峰值（44倍）。该比率由耶鲁大学著名教授罗伯特·希勒(Robert Shiller)创建，被认为优于传统的市盈率，因为它根据通货膨胀进行了调整。</blockquote> Historically, a Shiller PE ratio sustained over 25 times has gone on to be a precursor for sizable pullbacks in the market as presented in the below chart by Sundial Capital Research.<blockquote>从历史上看，席勒市盈率持续超过25倍一直是市场大幅回调的前兆，如下图所示。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae6fa873e7da808f6a362a964ddfa0c7\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Markets look long overdue for a corrections, hints the Shiller P/E Ratio.<blockquote>席勒市盈率暗示，市场看起来早就应该进行调整了。</blockquote> The team at Sundial is quick to point out that no stock market measure is fool proof or all predictive.<blockquote>Sundial的团队很快指出，没有任何股市指标是万无一失的，也没有任何预测性的。</blockquote> \"That the stock market is 'overvalued' DOES NOT mean investors need to take drastic action immediately. Because the reality is that the stock market can (and, in fact, has been) overvalued for many years,\" explains Sundial.<blockquote>“股市被‘高估’并不意味着投资者需要立即采取严厉行动。因为现实是，股市可能（而且事实上已经）被高估了很多年，”Sundial解释道。</blockquote> The group added, \"The current high reading for the Shiller P/E is NOT a 'call to action.' It is more of a 'call to pay close attention.' There are always 'things' to be concerned about that may upset the apple cart.\"<blockquote>该组织补充道，“目前席勒市盈率的高读数并不是‘呼吁采取行动’。更多的是‘呼吁密切关注’。总有一些‘事情’需要关注，可能会扰乱苹果购物车。”</blockquote> In other words, don't sell all your stocks and hide the cash under your bed.<blockquote>换句话说，不要卖掉你所有的股票，把现金藏在床底下。</blockquote> That said if you aren't inclined to be a big believer in the Shiller P/E Ratio (count my colleagueMyles Udlandin that camp,watch videoabove), perhaps a closely watched measure by theWarren \"Oracle of Omaha\" Buffettis more in lockstep with your analytical views.<blockquote>也就是说，如果你不太相信席勒市盈率（算上我的同事迈尔斯·乌德兰，请观看上面的视频），也许沃伦“奥马哈先知”巴菲特密切关注的衡量标准更符合你的分析观点。</blockquote> The “Buffett Indicator” as it’s called in Wall Street circles — which takes the Wilshire 5000 Index (viewed as the total stock market) and divides it by the annual U.S. GDP — is still seemingly hitting new record highs daily. In crunching the numbers, the Buffett Indicator stands at about 204.4% — up sharply from the 187.5% level (also a record) from when we last wrote about the measure in late February. All data comes to us fromGuruFocus, which extensively tracks the indicator.<blockquote>华尔街圈子里所谓的“巴菲特指标”——将威尔希尔5000指数（被视为股票市场总量）除以美国年度GDP——似乎仍在每天创下新的历史新高。在计算数据时，巴菲特指标约为204.4%，较我们2月底上次撰写该指标时的187.5%水平（也是创纪录水平）大幅上升。所有数据都来自GuruFocus，它广泛跟踪该指标。</blockquote> The existing figure remains well above the 159.2% seen just before the dot-com bubble.<blockquote>目前的数字仍远高于互联网泡沫前的159.2%。</blockquote> “The stock market is significantly overvalued according to the Buffett Indicator,” said the researchers at GuruFocus. “Based on the historical ratio of total market cap over GDP (the aforementioned 204.4%), it is likely to return -3.3% a year from this level of valuation, including dividends.”<blockquote>GuruFocus的研究人员表示：“根据巴菲特指标，股市被严重高估。”“根据总市值与GDP的历史比率（前面提到的204.4%），从这个估值水平来看，包括股息在内，它每年可能会获得-3.3%的回报。”</blockquote> The Buffett Indicator rose to fame after a2001 Fortune Magazine articlewritten by Buffett and long-time Fortune writer and Buffett insider Carol Loomis.<blockquote>2001年，巴菲特和《财富》杂志长期撰稿人、巴菲特内部人士卡罗尔·卢米斯(Carol Loomis)在《财富》杂志上发表文章后，巴菲特指标一举成名。</blockquote> “The ratio has certain limitations in telling you what you need to know. Still, it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment,” explained Buffett in the article.<blockquote>巴菲特在文章中解释说：“该比率在告诉你需要知道的事情方面有一定的局限性。尽管如此，它可能是衡量任何特定时刻估值水平的最佳单一指标。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Warren Buffett's favorite stock market indicator isn't alone in hinting stocks are due for a breather<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特最喜欢的股市指标并不是唯一一个暗示股市即将喘息的指标</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWarren Buffett's favorite stock market indicator isn't alone in hinting stocks are due for a breather<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特最喜欢的股市指标并不是唯一一个暗示股市即将喘息的指标</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nfinance.yahoo2021-07-01 14:11\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe stock market is entering the danger zone, according to one often overlooked measure of equities valuation.<blockquote>根据一项经常被忽视的股票估值指标，股市正在进入危险区域。</blockquote> At its current level of 38 times, the Shiller P/E Ratio is nearing the peak (44 times) seen at the height just before the dot-com bust in 2000, write strategists atSunDial Capital Research. Created by noted Yale professor Robert Shiller, the ratio is seen as better than the traditional P/E ratio as it adjusts for inflation.<blockquote>Sundial Capital Research的策略师写道，席勒市盈率目前为38倍，已接近2000年互联网泡沫破灭前的峰值（44倍）。该比率由耶鲁大学著名教授罗伯特·希勒(Robert Shiller)创建，被认为优于传统的市盈率，因为它根据通货膨胀进行了调整。</blockquote> Historically, a Shiller PE ratio sustained over 25 times has gone on to be a precursor for sizable pullbacks in the market as presented in the below chart by Sundial Capital Research.<blockquote>从历史上看，席勒市盈率持续超过25倍一直是市场大幅回调的前兆，如下图所示。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae6fa873e7da808f6a362a964ddfa0c7\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Markets look long overdue for a corrections, hints the Shiller P/E Ratio.<blockquote>席勒市盈率暗示，市场看起来早就应该进行调整了。</blockquote> The team at Sundial is quick to point out that no stock market measure is fool proof or all predictive.<blockquote>Sundial的团队很快指出，没有任何股市指标是万无一失的，也没有任何预测性的。</blockquote> \"That the stock market is 'overvalued' DOES NOT mean investors need to take drastic action immediately. Because the reality is that the stock market can (and, in fact, has been) overvalued for many years,\" explains Sundial.<blockquote>“股市被‘高估’并不意味着投资者需要立即采取严厉行动。因为现实是，股市可能（而且事实上已经）被高估了很多年，”Sundial解释道。</blockquote> The group added, \"The current high reading for the Shiller P/E is NOT a 'call to action.' It is more of a 'call to pay close attention.' There are always 'things' to be concerned about that may upset the apple cart.\"<blockquote>该组织补充道，“目前席勒市盈率的高读数并不是‘呼吁采取行动’。更多的是‘呼吁密切关注’。总有一些‘事情’需要关注，可能会扰乱苹果购物车。”</blockquote> In other words, don't sell all your stocks and hide the cash under your bed.<blockquote>换句话说，不要卖掉你所有的股票，把现金藏在床底下。</blockquote> That said if you aren't inclined to be a big believer in the Shiller P/E Ratio (count my colleagueMyles Udlandin that camp,watch videoabove), perhaps a closely watched measure by theWarren \"Oracle of Omaha\" Buffettis more in lockstep with your analytical views.<blockquote>也就是说，如果你不太相信席勒市盈率（算上我的同事迈尔斯·乌德兰，请观看上面的视频），也许沃伦“奥马哈先知”巴菲特密切关注的衡量标准更符合你的分析观点。</blockquote> The “Buffett Indicator” as it’s called in Wall Street circles — which takes the Wilshire 5000 Index (viewed as the total stock market) and divides it by the annual U.S. GDP — is still seemingly hitting new record highs daily. In crunching the numbers, the Buffett Indicator stands at about 204.4% — up sharply from the 187.5% level (also a record) from when we last wrote about the measure in late February. All data comes to us fromGuruFocus, which extensively tracks the indicator.<blockquote>华尔街圈子里所谓的“巴菲特指标”——将威尔希尔5000指数（被视为股票市场总量）除以美国年度GDP——似乎仍在每天创下新的历史新高。在计算数据时，巴菲特指标约为204.4%，较我们2月底上次撰写该指标时的187.5%水平（也是创纪录水平）大幅上升。所有数据都来自GuruFocus，它广泛跟踪该指标。</blockquote> The existing figure remains well above the 159.2% seen just before the dot-com bubble.<blockquote>目前的数字仍远高于互联网泡沫前的159.2%。</blockquote> “The stock market is significantly overvalued according to the Buffett Indicator,” said the researchers at GuruFocus. “Based on the historical ratio of total market cap over GDP (the aforementioned 204.4%), it is likely to return -3.3% a year from this level of valuation, including dividends.”<blockquote>GuruFocus的研究人员表示：“根据巴菲特指标，股市被严重高估。”“根据总市值与GDP的历史比率（前面提到的204.4%），从这个估值水平来看，包括股息在内，它每年可能会获得-3.3%的回报。”</blockquote> The Buffett Indicator rose to fame after a2001 Fortune Magazine articlewritten by Buffett and long-time Fortune writer and Buffett insider Carol Loomis.<blockquote>2001年，巴菲特和《财富》杂志长期撰稿人、巴菲特内部人士卡罗尔·卢米斯(Carol Loomis)在《财富》杂志上发表文章后，巴菲特指标一举成名。</blockquote> “The ratio has certain limitations in telling you what you need to know. Still, it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment,” explained Buffett in the article.<blockquote>巴菲特在文章中解释说：“该比率在告诉你需要知道的事情方面有一定的局限性。尽管如此，它可能是衡量任何特定时刻估值水平的最佳单一指标。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffetts-favorite-stock-market-indicator-isnt-alone-in-hinting-stocks-are-due-for-a-breather-192030974.html\">finance.yahoo</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffetts-favorite-stock-market-indicator-isnt-alone-in-hinting-stocks-are-due-for-a-breather-192030974.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147390885","content_text":"The stock market is entering the danger zone, according to one often overlooked measure of equities valuation.\nAt its current level of 38 times, the Shiller P/E Ratio is nearing the peak (44 times) seen at the height just before the dot-com bust in 2000, write strategists atSunDial Capital Research. Created by noted Yale professor Robert Shiller, the ratio is seen as better than the traditional P/E ratio as it adjusts for inflation.\nHistorically, a Shiller PE ratio sustained over 25 times has gone on to be a precursor for sizable pullbacks in the market as presented in the below chart by Sundial Capital Research.\nMarkets look long overdue for a corrections, hints the Shiller P/E Ratio.\nThe team at Sundial is quick to point out that no stock market measure is fool proof or all predictive.\n\"That the stock market is 'overvalued' DOES NOT mean investors need to take drastic action immediately. Because the reality is that the stock market can (and, in fact, has been) overvalued for many years,\" explains Sundial.\nThe group added, \"The current high reading for the Shiller P/E is NOT a 'call to action.' It is more of a 'call to pay close attention.' There are always 'things' to be concerned about that may upset the apple cart.\"\nIn other words, don't sell all your stocks and hide the cash under your bed.\nThat said if you aren't inclined to be a big believer in the Shiller P/E Ratio (count my colleagueMyles Udlandin that camp,watch videoabove), perhaps a closely watched measure by theWarren \"Oracle of Omaha\" Buffettis more in lockstep with your analytical views.\nThe “Buffett Indicator” as it’s called in Wall Street circles — which takes the Wilshire 5000 Index (viewed as the total stock market) and divides it by the annual U.S. GDP — is still seemingly hitting new record highs daily. In crunching the numbers, the Buffett Indicator stands at about 204.4% — up sharply from the 187.5% level (also a record) from when we last wrote about the measure in late February. All data comes to us fromGuruFocus, which extensively tracks the indicator.\nThe existing figure remains well above the 159.2% seen just before the dot-com bubble.\n“The stock market is significantly overvalued according to the Buffett Indicator,” said the researchers at GuruFocus. “Based on the historical ratio of total market cap over GDP (the aforementioned 204.4%), it is likely to return -3.3% a year from this level of valuation, including dividends.”\nThe Buffett Indicator rose to fame after a2001 Fortune Magazine articlewritten by Buffett and long-time Fortune writer and Buffett insider Carol Loomis.\n“The ratio has certain limitations in telling you what you need to know. Still, it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment,” explained Buffett in the article.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":158964513,"gmtCreate":1625123997932,"gmtModify":1633944537553,"author":{"id":"3585721893406956","authorId":"3585721893406956","name":"Casssq","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcbb035e82702e47f1b46c9b011d53e8","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3585721893406956","idStr":"3585721893406956"},"htmlText":"🤩","listText":"🤩","text":"🤩","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158964513","repostId":1147390885,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147390885","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625119868,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147390885?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-01 14:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Warren Buffett's favorite stock market indicator isn't alone in hinting stocks are due for a breather<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特最喜欢的股市指标并不是唯一一个暗示股市即将喘息的指标</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147390885","media":"finance.yahoo","summary":"The stock market is entering the danger zone, according to one often overlooked measure of equities ","content":"The stock market is entering the danger zone, according to one often overlooked measure of equities valuation.<blockquote>根据一项经常被忽视的股票估值指标，股市正在进入危险区域。</blockquote> At its current level of 38 times, the Shiller P/E Ratio is nearing the peak (44 times) seen at the height just before the dot-com bust in 2000, write strategists atSunDial Capital Research. Created by noted Yale professor Robert Shiller, the ratio is seen as better than the traditional P/E ratio as it adjusts for inflation.<blockquote>Sundial Capital Research的策略师写道，席勒市盈率目前为38倍，已接近2000年互联网泡沫破灭前的峰值（44倍）。该比率由耶鲁大学著名教授罗伯特·希勒(Robert Shiller)创建，被认为优于传统的市盈率，因为它根据通货膨胀进行了调整。</blockquote> Historically, a Shiller PE ratio sustained over 25 times has gone on to be a precursor for sizable pullbacks in the market as presented in the below chart by Sundial Capital Research.<blockquote>从历史上看，席勒市盈率持续超过25倍一直是市场大幅回调的前兆，如下图所示。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae6fa873e7da808f6a362a964ddfa0c7\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Markets look long overdue for a corrections, hints the Shiller P/E Ratio.<blockquote>席勒市盈率暗示，市场看起来早就应该进行调整了。</blockquote> The team at Sundial is quick to point out that no stock market measure is fool proof or all predictive.<blockquote>Sundial的团队很快指出，没有任何股市指标是万无一失的，也没有任何预测性的。</blockquote> \"That the stock market is 'overvalued' DOES NOT mean investors need to take drastic action immediately. Because the reality is that the stock market can (and, in fact, has been) overvalued for many years,\" explains Sundial.<blockquote>“股市被‘高估’并不意味着投资者需要立即采取严厉行动。因为现实是，股市可能（而且事实上已经）被高估了很多年，”Sundial解释道。</blockquote> The group added, \"The current high reading for the Shiller P/E is NOT a 'call to action.' It is more of a 'call to pay close attention.' There are always 'things' to be concerned about that may upset the apple cart.\"<blockquote>该组织补充道，“目前席勒市盈率的高读数并不是‘呼吁采取行动’。更多的是‘呼吁密切关注’。总有一些‘事情’需要关注，可能会扰乱苹果购物车。”</blockquote> In other words, don't sell all your stocks and hide the cash under your bed.<blockquote>换句话说，不要卖掉你所有的股票，把现金藏在床底下。</blockquote> That said if you aren't inclined to be a big believer in the Shiller P/E Ratio (count my colleagueMyles Udlandin that camp,watch videoabove), perhaps a closely watched measure by theWarren \"Oracle of Omaha\" Buffettis more in lockstep with your analytical views.<blockquote>也就是说，如果你不太相信席勒市盈率（算上我的同事迈尔斯·乌德兰，请观看上面的视频），也许沃伦“奥马哈先知”巴菲特密切关注的衡量标准更符合你的分析观点。</blockquote> The “Buffett Indicator” as it’s called in Wall Street circles — which takes the Wilshire 5000 Index (viewed as the total stock market) and divides it by the annual U.S. GDP — is still seemingly hitting new record highs daily. In crunching the numbers, the Buffett Indicator stands at about 204.4% — up sharply from the 187.5% level (also a record) from when we last wrote about the measure in late February. All data comes to us fromGuruFocus, which extensively tracks the indicator.<blockquote>华尔街圈子里所谓的“巴菲特指标”——将威尔希尔5000指数（被视为股票市场总量）除以美国年度GDP——似乎仍在每天创下新的历史新高。在计算数据时，巴菲特指标约为204.4%，较我们2月底上次撰写该指标时的187.5%水平（也是创纪录水平）大幅上升。所有数据都来自GuruFocus，它广泛跟踪该指标。</blockquote> The existing figure remains well above the 159.2% seen just before the dot-com bubble.<blockquote>目前的数字仍远高于互联网泡沫前的159.2%。</blockquote> “The stock market is significantly overvalued according to the Buffett Indicator,” said the researchers at GuruFocus. “Based on the historical ratio of total market cap over GDP (the aforementioned 204.4%), it is likely to return -3.3% a year from this level of valuation, including dividends.”<blockquote>GuruFocus的研究人员表示：“根据巴菲特指标，股市被严重高估。”“根据总市值与GDP的历史比率（前面提到的204.4%），从这个估值水平来看，包括股息在内，它每年可能会获得-3.3%的回报。”</blockquote> The Buffett Indicator rose to fame after a2001 Fortune Magazine articlewritten by Buffett and long-time Fortune writer and Buffett insider Carol Loomis.<blockquote>2001年，巴菲特和《财富》杂志长期撰稿人、巴菲特内部人士卡罗尔·卢米斯(Carol Loomis)在《财富》杂志上发表文章后，巴菲特指标一举成名。</blockquote> “The ratio has certain limitations in telling you what you need to know. Still, it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment,” explained Buffett in the article.<blockquote>巴菲特在文章中解释说：“该比率在告诉你需要知道的事情方面有一定的局限性。尽管如此，它可能是衡量任何特定时刻估值水平的最佳单一指标。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Warren Buffett's favorite stock market indicator isn't alone in hinting stocks are due for a breather<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特最喜欢的股市指标并不是唯一一个暗示股市即将喘息的指标</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWarren Buffett's favorite stock market indicator isn't alone in hinting stocks are due for a breather<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特最喜欢的股市指标并不是唯一一个暗示股市即将喘息的指标</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nfinance.yahoo2021-07-01 14:11\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe stock market is entering the danger zone, according to one often overlooked measure of equities valuation.<blockquote>根据一项经常被忽视的股票估值指标，股市正在进入危险区域。</blockquote> At its current level of 38 times, the Shiller P/E Ratio is nearing the peak (44 times) seen at the height just before the dot-com bust in 2000, write strategists atSunDial Capital Research. Created by noted Yale professor Robert Shiller, the ratio is seen as better than the traditional P/E ratio as it adjusts for inflation.<blockquote>Sundial Capital Research的策略师写道，席勒市盈率目前为38倍，已接近2000年互联网泡沫破灭前的峰值（44倍）。该比率由耶鲁大学著名教授罗伯特·希勒(Robert Shiller)创建，被认为优于传统的市盈率，因为它根据通货膨胀进行了调整。</blockquote> Historically, a Shiller PE ratio sustained over 25 times has gone on to be a precursor for sizable pullbacks in the market as presented in the below chart by Sundial Capital Research.<blockquote>从历史上看，席勒市盈率持续超过25倍一直是市场大幅回调的前兆，如下图所示。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae6fa873e7da808f6a362a964ddfa0c7\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Markets look long overdue for a corrections, hints the Shiller P/E Ratio.<blockquote>席勒市盈率暗示，市场看起来早就应该进行调整了。</blockquote> The team at Sundial is quick to point out that no stock market measure is fool proof or all predictive.<blockquote>Sundial的团队很快指出，没有任何股市指标是万无一失的，也没有任何预测性的。</blockquote> \"That the stock market is 'overvalued' DOES NOT mean investors need to take drastic action immediately. Because the reality is that the stock market can (and, in fact, has been) overvalued for many years,\" explains Sundial.<blockquote>“股市被‘高估’并不意味着投资者需要立即采取严厉行动。因为现实是，股市可能（而且事实上已经）被高估了很多年，”Sundial解释道。</blockquote> The group added, \"The current high reading for the Shiller P/E is NOT a 'call to action.' It is more of a 'call to pay close attention.' There are always 'things' to be concerned about that may upset the apple cart.\"<blockquote>该组织补充道，“目前席勒市盈率的高读数并不是‘呼吁采取行动’。更多的是‘呼吁密切关注’。总有一些‘事情’需要关注，可能会扰乱苹果购物车。”</blockquote> In other words, don't sell all your stocks and hide the cash under your bed.<blockquote>换句话说，不要卖掉你所有的股票，把现金藏在床底下。</blockquote> That said if you aren't inclined to be a big believer in the Shiller P/E Ratio (count my colleagueMyles Udlandin that camp,watch videoabove), perhaps a closely watched measure by theWarren \"Oracle of Omaha\" Buffettis more in lockstep with your analytical views.<blockquote>也就是说，如果你不太相信席勒市盈率（算上我的同事迈尔斯·乌德兰，请观看上面的视频），也许沃伦“奥马哈先知”巴菲特密切关注的衡量标准更符合你的分析观点。</blockquote> The “Buffett Indicator” as it’s called in Wall Street circles — which takes the Wilshire 5000 Index (viewed as the total stock market) and divides it by the annual U.S. GDP — is still seemingly hitting new record highs daily. In crunching the numbers, the Buffett Indicator stands at about 204.4% — up sharply from the 187.5% level (also a record) from when we last wrote about the measure in late February. All data comes to us fromGuruFocus, which extensively tracks the indicator.<blockquote>华尔街圈子里所谓的“巴菲特指标”——将威尔希尔5000指数（被视为股票市场总量）除以美国年度GDP——似乎仍在每天创下新的历史新高。在计算数据时，巴菲特指标约为204.4%，较我们2月底上次撰写该指标时的187.5%水平（也是创纪录水平）大幅上升。所有数据都来自GuruFocus，它广泛跟踪该指标。</blockquote> The existing figure remains well above the 159.2% seen just before the dot-com bubble.<blockquote>目前的数字仍远高于互联网泡沫前的159.2%。</blockquote> “The stock market is significantly overvalued according to the Buffett Indicator,” said the researchers at GuruFocus. “Based on the historical ratio of total market cap over GDP (the aforementioned 204.4%), it is likely to return -3.3% a year from this level of valuation, including dividends.”<blockquote>GuruFocus的研究人员表示：“根据巴菲特指标，股市被严重高估。”“根据总市值与GDP的历史比率（前面提到的204.4%），从这个估值水平来看，包括股息在内，它每年可能会获得-3.3%的回报。”</blockquote> The Buffett Indicator rose to fame after a2001 Fortune Magazine articlewritten by Buffett and long-time Fortune writer and Buffett insider Carol Loomis.<blockquote>2001年，巴菲特和《财富》杂志长期撰稿人、巴菲特内部人士卡罗尔·卢米斯(Carol Loomis)在《财富》杂志上发表文章后，巴菲特指标一举成名。</blockquote> “The ratio has certain limitations in telling you what you need to know. Still, it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment,” explained Buffett in the article.<blockquote>巴菲特在文章中解释说：“该比率在告诉你需要知道的事情方面有一定的局限性。尽管如此，它可能是衡量任何特定时刻估值水平的最佳单一指标。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffetts-favorite-stock-market-indicator-isnt-alone-in-hinting-stocks-are-due-for-a-breather-192030974.html\">finance.yahoo</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffetts-favorite-stock-market-indicator-isnt-alone-in-hinting-stocks-are-due-for-a-breather-192030974.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147390885","content_text":"The stock market is entering the danger zone, according to one often overlooked measure of equities valuation.\nAt its current level of 38 times, the Shiller P/E Ratio is nearing the peak (44 times) seen at the height just before the dot-com bust in 2000, write strategists atSunDial Capital Research. Created by noted Yale professor Robert Shiller, the ratio is seen as better than the traditional P/E ratio as it adjusts for inflation.\nHistorically, a Shiller PE ratio sustained over 25 times has gone on to be a precursor for sizable pullbacks in the market as presented in the below chart by Sundial Capital Research.\nMarkets look long overdue for a corrections, hints the Shiller P/E Ratio.\nThe team at Sundial is quick to point out that no stock market measure is fool proof or all predictive.\n\"That the stock market is 'overvalued' DOES NOT mean investors need to take drastic action immediately. Because the reality is that the stock market can (and, in fact, has been) overvalued for many years,\" explains Sundial.\nThe group added, \"The current high reading for the Shiller P/E is NOT a 'call to action.' It is more of a 'call to pay close attention.' There are always 'things' to be concerned about that may upset the apple cart.\"\nIn other words, don't sell all your stocks and hide the cash under your bed.\nThat said if you aren't inclined to be a big believer in the Shiller P/E Ratio (count my colleagueMyles Udlandin that camp,watch videoabove), perhaps a closely watched measure by theWarren \"Oracle of Omaha\" Buffettis more in lockstep with your analytical views.\nThe “Buffett Indicator” as it’s called in Wall Street circles — which takes the Wilshire 5000 Index (viewed as the total stock market) and divides it by the annual U.S. GDP — is still seemingly hitting new record highs daily. In crunching the numbers, the Buffett Indicator stands at about 204.4% — up sharply from the 187.5% level (also a record) from when we last wrote about the measure in late February. All data comes to us fromGuruFocus, which extensively tracks the indicator.\nThe existing figure remains well above the 159.2% seen just before the dot-com bubble.\n“The stock market is significantly overvalued according to the Buffett Indicator,” said the researchers at GuruFocus. “Based on the historical ratio of total market cap over GDP (the aforementioned 204.4%), it is likely to return -3.3% a year from this level of valuation, including dividends.”\nThe Buffett Indicator rose to fame after a2001 Fortune Magazine articlewritten by Buffett and long-time Fortune writer and Buffett insider Carol Loomis.\n“The ratio has certain limitations in telling you what you need to know. Still, it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment,” explained Buffett in the article.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":158916320,"gmtCreate":1625121349160,"gmtModify":1633944555069,"author":{"id":"3582714812293607","authorId":"3582714812293607","name":"Darylzhuo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd5e4be85ccfbeb4c1c4b4faed74f6f1","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3582714812293607","idStr":"3582714812293607"},"htmlText":"Please like and comment pls. Thank you&nbsp;","listText":"Please like and comment pls. Thank you&nbsp;","text":"Please like and comment pls. Thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158916320","repostId":1147390885,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1147390885","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625119868,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147390885?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-01 14:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Warren Buffett's favorite stock market indicator isn't alone in hinting stocks are due for a breather<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特最喜欢的股市指标并不是唯一一个暗示股市即将喘息的指标</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147390885","media":"finance.yahoo","summary":"The stock market is entering the danger zone, according to one often overlooked measure of equities ","content":"The stock market is entering the danger zone, according to one often overlooked measure of equities valuation.<blockquote>根据一项经常被忽视的股票估值指标，股市正在进入危险区域。</blockquote> At its current level of 38 times, the Shiller P/E Ratio is nearing the peak (44 times) seen at the height just before the dot-com bust in 2000, write strategists atSunDial Capital Research. Created by noted Yale professor Robert Shiller, the ratio is seen as better than the traditional P/E ratio as it adjusts for inflation.<blockquote>Sundial Capital Research的策略师写道，席勒市盈率目前为38倍，已接近2000年互联网泡沫破灭前的峰值（44倍）。该比率由耶鲁大学著名教授罗伯特·希勒(Robert Shiller)创建，被认为优于传统的市盈率，因为它根据通货膨胀进行了调整。</blockquote> Historically, a Shiller PE ratio sustained over 25 times has gone on to be a precursor for sizable pullbacks in the market as presented in the below chart by Sundial Capital Research.<blockquote>从历史上看，席勒市盈率持续超过25倍一直是市场大幅回调的前兆，如下图所示。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae6fa873e7da808f6a362a964ddfa0c7\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Markets look long overdue for a corrections, hints the Shiller P/E Ratio.<blockquote>席勒市盈率暗示，市场看起来早就应该进行调整了。</blockquote> The team at Sundial is quick to point out that no stock market measure is fool proof or all predictive.<blockquote>Sundial的团队很快指出，没有任何股市指标是万无一失的，也没有任何预测性的。</blockquote> \"That the stock market is 'overvalued' DOES NOT mean investors need to take drastic action immediately. Because the reality is that the stock market can (and, in fact, has been) overvalued for many years,\" explains Sundial.<blockquote>“股市被‘高估’并不意味着投资者需要立即采取严厉行动。因为现实是，股市可能（而且事实上已经）被高估了很多年，”Sundial解释道。</blockquote> The group added, \"The current high reading for the Shiller P/E is NOT a 'call to action.' It is more of a 'call to pay close attention.' There are always 'things' to be concerned about that may upset the apple cart.\"<blockquote>该组织补充道，“目前席勒市盈率的高读数并不是‘呼吁采取行动’。更多的是‘呼吁密切关注’。总有一些‘事情’需要关注，可能会扰乱苹果购物车。”</blockquote> In other words, don't sell all your stocks and hide the cash under your bed.<blockquote>换句话说，不要卖掉你所有的股票，把现金藏在床底下。</blockquote> That said if you aren't inclined to be a big believer in the Shiller P/E Ratio (count my colleagueMyles Udlandin that camp,watch videoabove), perhaps a closely watched measure by theWarren \"Oracle of Omaha\" Buffettis more in lockstep with your analytical views.<blockquote>也就是说，如果你不太相信席勒市盈率（算上我的同事迈尔斯·乌德兰，请观看上面的视频），也许沃伦“奥马哈先知”巴菲特密切关注的衡量标准更符合你的分析观点。</blockquote> The “Buffett Indicator” as it’s called in Wall Street circles — which takes the Wilshire 5000 Index (viewed as the total stock market) and divides it by the annual U.S. GDP — is still seemingly hitting new record highs daily. In crunching the numbers, the Buffett Indicator stands at about 204.4% — up sharply from the 187.5% level (also a record) from when we last wrote about the measure in late February. All data comes to us fromGuruFocus, which extensively tracks the indicator.<blockquote>华尔街圈子里所谓的“巴菲特指标”——将威尔希尔5000指数（被视为股票市场总量）除以美国年度GDP——似乎仍在每天创下新的历史新高。在计算数据时，巴菲特指标约为204.4%，较我们2月底上次撰写该指标时的187.5%水平（也是创纪录水平）大幅上升。所有数据都来自GuruFocus，它广泛跟踪该指标。</blockquote> The existing figure remains well above the 159.2% seen just before the dot-com bubble.<blockquote>目前的数字仍远高于互联网泡沫前的159.2%。</blockquote> “The stock market is significantly overvalued according to the Buffett Indicator,” said the researchers at GuruFocus. “Based on the historical ratio of total market cap over GDP (the aforementioned 204.4%), it is likely to return -3.3% a year from this level of valuation, including dividends.”<blockquote>GuruFocus的研究人员表示：“根据巴菲特指标，股市被严重高估。”“根据总市值与GDP的历史比率（前面提到的204.4%），从这个估值水平来看，包括股息在内，它每年可能会获得-3.3%的回报。”</blockquote> The Buffett Indicator rose to fame after a2001 Fortune Magazine articlewritten by Buffett and long-time Fortune writer and Buffett insider Carol Loomis.<blockquote>2001年，巴菲特和《财富》杂志长期撰稿人、巴菲特内部人士卡罗尔·卢米斯(Carol Loomis)在《财富》杂志上发表文章后，巴菲特指标一举成名。</blockquote> “The ratio has certain limitations in telling you what you need to know. Still, it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment,” explained Buffett in the article.<blockquote>巴菲特在文章中解释说：“该比率在告诉你需要知道的事情方面有一定的局限性。尽管如此，它可能是衡量任何特定时刻估值水平的最佳单一指标。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Warren Buffett's favorite stock market indicator isn't alone in hinting stocks are due for a breather<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特最喜欢的股市指标并不是唯一一个暗示股市即将喘息的指标</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWarren Buffett's favorite stock market indicator isn't alone in hinting stocks are due for a breather<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特最喜欢的股市指标并不是唯一一个暗示股市即将喘息的指标</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nfinance.yahoo2021-07-01 14:11\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe stock market is entering the danger zone, according to one often overlooked measure of equities valuation.<blockquote>根据一项经常被忽视的股票估值指标，股市正在进入危险区域。</blockquote> At its current level of 38 times, the Shiller P/E Ratio is nearing the peak (44 times) seen at the height just before the dot-com bust in 2000, write strategists atSunDial Capital Research. Created by noted Yale professor Robert Shiller, the ratio is seen as better than the traditional P/E ratio as it adjusts for inflation.<blockquote>Sundial Capital Research的策略师写道，席勒市盈率目前为38倍，已接近2000年互联网泡沫破灭前的峰值（44倍）。该比率由耶鲁大学著名教授罗伯特·希勒(Robert Shiller)创建，被认为优于传统的市盈率，因为它根据通货膨胀进行了调整。</blockquote> Historically, a Shiller PE ratio sustained over 25 times has gone on to be a precursor for sizable pullbacks in the market as presented in the below chart by Sundial Capital Research.<blockquote>从历史上看，席勒市盈率持续超过25倍一直是市场大幅回调的前兆，如下图所示。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae6fa873e7da808f6a362a964ddfa0c7\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Markets look long overdue for a corrections, hints the Shiller P/E Ratio.<blockquote>席勒市盈率暗示，市场看起来早就应该进行调整了。</blockquote> The team at Sundial is quick to point out that no stock market measure is fool proof or all predictive.<blockquote>Sundial的团队很快指出，没有任何股市指标是万无一失的，也没有任何预测性的。</blockquote> \"That the stock market is 'overvalued' DOES NOT mean investors need to take drastic action immediately. Because the reality is that the stock market can (and, in fact, has been) overvalued for many years,\" explains Sundial.<blockquote>“股市被‘高估’并不意味着投资者需要立即采取严厉行动。因为现实是，股市可能（而且事实上已经）被高估了很多年，”Sundial解释道。</blockquote> The group added, \"The current high reading for the Shiller P/E is NOT a 'call to action.' It is more of a 'call to pay close attention.' There are always 'things' to be concerned about that may upset the apple cart.\"<blockquote>该组织补充道，“目前席勒市盈率的高读数并不是‘呼吁采取行动’。更多的是‘呼吁密切关注’。总有一些‘事情’需要关注，可能会扰乱苹果购物车。”</blockquote> In other words, don't sell all your stocks and hide the cash under your bed.<blockquote>换句话说，不要卖掉你所有的股票，把现金藏在床底下。</blockquote> That said if you aren't inclined to be a big believer in the Shiller P/E Ratio (count my colleagueMyles Udlandin that camp,watch videoabove), perhaps a closely watched measure by theWarren \"Oracle of Omaha\" Buffettis more in lockstep with your analytical views.<blockquote>也就是说，如果你不太相信席勒市盈率（算上我的同事迈尔斯·乌德兰，请观看上面的视频），也许沃伦“奥马哈先知”巴菲特密切关注的衡量标准更符合你的分析观点。</blockquote> The “Buffett Indicator” as it’s called in Wall Street circles — which takes the Wilshire 5000 Index (viewed as the total stock market) and divides it by the annual U.S. GDP — is still seemingly hitting new record highs daily. In crunching the numbers, the Buffett Indicator stands at about 204.4% — up sharply from the 187.5% level (also a record) from when we last wrote about the measure in late February. All data comes to us fromGuruFocus, which extensively tracks the indicator.<blockquote>华尔街圈子里所谓的“巴菲特指标”——将威尔希尔5000指数（被视为股票市场总量）除以美国年度GDP——似乎仍在每天创下新的历史新高。在计算数据时，巴菲特指标约为204.4%，较我们2月底上次撰写该指标时的187.5%水平（也是创纪录水平）大幅上升。所有数据都来自GuruFocus，它广泛跟踪该指标。</blockquote> The existing figure remains well above the 159.2% seen just before the dot-com bubble.<blockquote>目前的数字仍远高于互联网泡沫前的159.2%。</blockquote> “The stock market is significantly overvalued according to the Buffett Indicator,” said the researchers at GuruFocus. “Based on the historical ratio of total market cap over GDP (the aforementioned 204.4%), it is likely to return -3.3% a year from this level of valuation, including dividends.”<blockquote>GuruFocus的研究人员表示：“根据巴菲特指标，股市被严重高估。”“根据总市值与GDP的历史比率（前面提到的204.4%），从这个估值水平来看，包括股息在内，它每年可能会获得-3.3%的回报。”</blockquote> The Buffett Indicator rose to fame after a2001 Fortune Magazine articlewritten by Buffett and long-time Fortune writer and Buffett insider Carol Loomis.<blockquote>2001年，巴菲特和《财富》杂志长期撰稿人、巴菲特内部人士卡罗尔·卢米斯(Carol Loomis)在《财富》杂志上发表文章后，巴菲特指标一举成名。</blockquote> “The ratio has certain limitations in telling you what you need to know. Still, it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment,” explained Buffett in the article.<blockquote>巴菲特在文章中解释说：“该比率在告诉你需要知道的事情方面有一定的局限性。尽管如此，它可能是衡量任何特定时刻估值水平的最佳单一指标。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffetts-favorite-stock-market-indicator-isnt-alone-in-hinting-stocks-are-due-for-a-breather-192030974.html\">finance.yahoo</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffetts-favorite-stock-market-indicator-isnt-alone-in-hinting-stocks-are-due-for-a-breather-192030974.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147390885","content_text":"The stock market is entering the danger zone, according to one often overlooked measure of equities valuation.\nAt its current level of 38 times, the Shiller P/E Ratio is nearing the peak (44 times) seen at the height just before the dot-com bust in 2000, write strategists atSunDial Capital Research. Created by noted Yale professor Robert Shiller, the ratio is seen as better than the traditional P/E ratio as it adjusts for inflation.\nHistorically, a Shiller PE ratio sustained over 25 times has gone on to be a precursor for sizable pullbacks in the market as presented in the below chart by Sundial Capital Research.\nMarkets look long overdue for a corrections, hints the Shiller P/E Ratio.\nThe team at Sundial is quick to point out that no stock market measure is fool proof or all predictive.\n\"That the stock market is 'overvalued' DOES NOT mean investors need to take drastic action immediately. Because the reality is that the stock market can (and, in fact, has been) overvalued for many years,\" explains Sundial.\nThe group added, \"The current high reading for the Shiller P/E is NOT a 'call to action.' It is more of a 'call to pay close attention.' There are always 'things' to be concerned about that may upset the apple cart.\"\nIn other words, don't sell all your stocks and hide the cash under your bed.\nThat said if you aren't inclined to be a big believer in the Shiller P/E Ratio (count my colleagueMyles Udlandin that camp,watch videoabove), perhaps a closely watched measure by theWarren \"Oracle of Omaha\" Buffettis more in lockstep with your analytical views.\nThe “Buffett Indicator” as it’s called in Wall Street circles — which takes the Wilshire 5000 Index (viewed as the total stock market) and divides it by the annual U.S. GDP — is still seemingly hitting new record highs daily. In crunching the numbers, the Buffett Indicator stands at about 204.4% — up sharply from the 187.5% level (also a record) from when we last wrote about the measure in late February. All data comes to us fromGuruFocus, which extensively tracks the indicator.\nThe existing figure remains well above the 159.2% seen just before the dot-com bubble.\n“The stock market is significantly overvalued according to the Buffett Indicator,” said the researchers at GuruFocus. “Based on the historical ratio of total market cap over GDP (the aforementioned 204.4%), it is likely to return -3.3% a year from this level of valuation, including dividends.”\nThe Buffett Indicator rose to fame after a2001 Fortune Magazine articlewritten by Buffett and long-time Fortune writer and Buffett insider Carol Loomis.\n“The ratio has certain limitations in telling you what you need to know. Still, it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment,” explained Buffett in the article.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5089538,"gmtCreate":1625122018736,"gmtModify":1635239884159,"authorId":3582681835792049,"author":{"id":3582681835792049,"idStr":"3582681835792049","authorId":3582681835792049,"name":"Pplymm","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":158916320,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Done pls return ","text":"Done pls return ","html":"Done pls return "}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":158936835,"gmtCreate":1625120127527,"gmtModify":1633944562670,"author":{"id":"3568230509761996","authorId":"3568230509761996","name":"AndreR93","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96d3de091542c3cf445343cfbe260aeb","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3568230509761996","idStr":"3568230509761996"},"htmlText":"Reply&nbsp;","listText":"Reply&nbsp;","text":"Reply","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158936835","repostId":1147390885,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147390885","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625119868,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147390885?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-01 14:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Warren Buffett's favorite stock market indicator isn't alone in hinting stocks are due for a breather<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特最喜欢的股市指标并不是唯一一个暗示股市即将喘息的指标</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147390885","media":"finance.yahoo","summary":"The stock market is entering the danger zone, according to one often overlooked measure of equities ","content":"The stock market is entering the danger zone, according to one often overlooked measure of equities valuation.<blockquote>根据一项经常被忽视的股票估值指标，股市正在进入危险区域。</blockquote> At its current level of 38 times, the Shiller P/E Ratio is nearing the peak (44 times) seen at the height just before the dot-com bust in 2000, write strategists atSunDial Capital Research. Created by noted Yale professor Robert Shiller, the ratio is seen as better than the traditional P/E ratio as it adjusts for inflation.<blockquote>Sundial Capital Research的策略师写道，席勒市盈率目前为38倍，已接近2000年互联网泡沫破灭前的峰值（44倍）。该比率由耶鲁大学著名教授罗伯特·希勒(Robert Shiller)创建，被认为优于传统的市盈率，因为它根据通货膨胀进行了调整。</blockquote> Historically, a Shiller PE ratio sustained over 25 times has gone on to be a precursor for sizable pullbacks in the market as presented in the below chart by Sundial Capital Research.<blockquote>从历史上看，席勒市盈率持续超过25倍一直是市场大幅回调的前兆，如下图所示。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae6fa873e7da808f6a362a964ddfa0c7\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Markets look long overdue for a corrections, hints the Shiller P/E Ratio.<blockquote>席勒市盈率暗示，市场看起来早就应该进行调整了。</blockquote> The team at Sundial is quick to point out that no stock market measure is fool proof or all predictive.<blockquote>Sundial的团队很快指出，没有任何股市指标是万无一失的，也没有任何预测性的。</blockquote> \"That the stock market is 'overvalued' DOES NOT mean investors need to take drastic action immediately. Because the reality is that the stock market can (and, in fact, has been) overvalued for many years,\" explains Sundial.<blockquote>“股市被‘高估’并不意味着投资者需要立即采取严厉行动。因为现实是，股市可能（而且事实上已经）被高估了很多年，”Sundial解释道。</blockquote> The group added, \"The current high reading for the Shiller P/E is NOT a 'call to action.' It is more of a 'call to pay close attention.' There are always 'things' to be concerned about that may upset the apple cart.\"<blockquote>该组织补充道，“目前席勒市盈率的高读数并不是‘呼吁采取行动’。更多的是‘呼吁密切关注’。总有一些‘事情’需要关注，可能会扰乱苹果购物车。”</blockquote> In other words, don't sell all your stocks and hide the cash under your bed.<blockquote>换句话说，不要卖掉你所有的股票，把现金藏在床底下。</blockquote> That said if you aren't inclined to be a big believer in the Shiller P/E Ratio (count my colleagueMyles Udlandin that camp,watch videoabove), perhaps a closely watched measure by theWarren \"Oracle of Omaha\" Buffettis more in lockstep with your analytical views.<blockquote>也就是说，如果你不太相信席勒市盈率（算上我的同事迈尔斯·乌德兰，请观看上面的视频），也许沃伦“奥马哈先知”巴菲特密切关注的衡量标准更符合你的分析观点。</blockquote> The “Buffett Indicator” as it’s called in Wall Street circles — which takes the Wilshire 5000 Index (viewed as the total stock market) and divides it by the annual U.S. GDP — is still seemingly hitting new record highs daily. In crunching the numbers, the Buffett Indicator stands at about 204.4% — up sharply from the 187.5% level (also a record) from when we last wrote about the measure in late February. All data comes to us fromGuruFocus, which extensively tracks the indicator.<blockquote>华尔街圈子里所谓的“巴菲特指标”——将威尔希尔5000指数（被视为股票市场总量）除以美国年度GDP——似乎仍在每天创下新的历史新高。在计算数据时，巴菲特指标约为204.4%，较我们2月底上次撰写该指标时的187.5%水平（也是创纪录水平）大幅上升。所有数据都来自GuruFocus，它广泛跟踪该指标。</blockquote> The existing figure remains well above the 159.2% seen just before the dot-com bubble.<blockquote>目前的数字仍远高于互联网泡沫前的159.2%。</blockquote> “The stock market is significantly overvalued according to the Buffett Indicator,” said the researchers at GuruFocus. “Based on the historical ratio of total market cap over GDP (the aforementioned 204.4%), it is likely to return -3.3% a year from this level of valuation, including dividends.”<blockquote>GuruFocus的研究人员表示：“根据巴菲特指标，股市被严重高估。”“根据总市值与GDP的历史比率（前面提到的204.4%），从这个估值水平来看，包括股息在内，它每年可能会获得-3.3%的回报。”</blockquote> The Buffett Indicator rose to fame after a2001 Fortune Magazine articlewritten by Buffett and long-time Fortune writer and Buffett insider Carol Loomis.<blockquote>2001年，巴菲特和《财富》杂志长期撰稿人、巴菲特内部人士卡罗尔·卢米斯(Carol Loomis)在《财富》杂志上发表文章后，巴菲特指标一举成名。</blockquote> “The ratio has certain limitations in telling you what you need to know. Still, it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment,” explained Buffett in the article.<blockquote>巴菲特在文章中解释说：“该比率在告诉你需要知道的事情方面有一定的局限性。尽管如此，它可能是衡量任何特定时刻估值水平的最佳单一指标。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Warren Buffett's favorite stock market indicator isn't alone in hinting stocks are due for a breather<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特最喜欢的股市指标并不是唯一一个暗示股市即将喘息的指标</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWarren Buffett's favorite stock market indicator isn't alone in hinting stocks are due for a breather<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特最喜欢的股市指标并不是唯一一个暗示股市即将喘息的指标</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nfinance.yahoo2021-07-01 14:11\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe stock market is entering the danger zone, according to one often overlooked measure of equities valuation.<blockquote>根据一项经常被忽视的股票估值指标，股市正在进入危险区域。</blockquote> At its current level of 38 times, the Shiller P/E Ratio is nearing the peak (44 times) seen at the height just before the dot-com bust in 2000, write strategists atSunDial Capital Research. Created by noted Yale professor Robert Shiller, the ratio is seen as better than the traditional P/E ratio as it adjusts for inflation.<blockquote>Sundial Capital Research的策略师写道，席勒市盈率目前为38倍，已接近2000年互联网泡沫破灭前的峰值（44倍）。该比率由耶鲁大学著名教授罗伯特·希勒(Robert Shiller)创建，被认为优于传统的市盈率，因为它根据通货膨胀进行了调整。</blockquote> Historically, a Shiller PE ratio sustained over 25 times has gone on to be a precursor for sizable pullbacks in the market as presented in the below chart by Sundial Capital Research.<blockquote>从历史上看，席勒市盈率持续超过25倍一直是市场大幅回调的前兆，如下图所示。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae6fa873e7da808f6a362a964ddfa0c7\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Markets look long overdue for a corrections, hints the Shiller P/E Ratio.<blockquote>席勒市盈率暗示，市场看起来早就应该进行调整了。</blockquote> The team at Sundial is quick to point out that no stock market measure is fool proof or all predictive.<blockquote>Sundial的团队很快指出，没有任何股市指标是万无一失的，也没有任何预测性的。</blockquote> \"That the stock market is 'overvalued' DOES NOT mean investors need to take drastic action immediately. Because the reality is that the stock market can (and, in fact, has been) overvalued for many years,\" explains Sundial.<blockquote>“股市被‘高估’并不意味着投资者需要立即采取严厉行动。因为现实是，股市可能（而且事实上已经）被高估了很多年，”Sundial解释道。</blockquote> The group added, \"The current high reading for the Shiller P/E is NOT a 'call to action.' It is more of a 'call to pay close attention.' There are always 'things' to be concerned about that may upset the apple cart.\"<blockquote>该组织补充道，“目前席勒市盈率的高读数并不是‘呼吁采取行动’。更多的是‘呼吁密切关注’。总有一些‘事情’需要关注，可能会扰乱苹果购物车。”</blockquote> In other words, don't sell all your stocks and hide the cash under your bed.<blockquote>换句话说，不要卖掉你所有的股票，把现金藏在床底下。</blockquote> That said if you aren't inclined to be a big believer in the Shiller P/E Ratio (count my colleagueMyles Udlandin that camp,watch videoabove), perhaps a closely watched measure by theWarren \"Oracle of Omaha\" Buffettis more in lockstep with your analytical views.<blockquote>也就是说，如果你不太相信席勒市盈率（算上我的同事迈尔斯·乌德兰，请观看上面的视频），也许沃伦“奥马哈先知”巴菲特密切关注的衡量标准更符合你的分析观点。</blockquote> The “Buffett Indicator” as it’s called in Wall Street circles — which takes the Wilshire 5000 Index (viewed as the total stock market) and divides it by the annual U.S. GDP — is still seemingly hitting new record highs daily. In crunching the numbers, the Buffett Indicator stands at about 204.4% — up sharply from the 187.5% level (also a record) from when we last wrote about the measure in late February. All data comes to us fromGuruFocus, which extensively tracks the indicator.<blockquote>华尔街圈子里所谓的“巴菲特指标”——将威尔希尔5000指数（被视为股票市场总量）除以美国年度GDP——似乎仍在每天创下新的历史新高。在计算数据时，巴菲特指标约为204.4%，较我们2月底上次撰写该指标时的187.5%水平（也是创纪录水平）大幅上升。所有数据都来自GuruFocus，它广泛跟踪该指标。</blockquote> The existing figure remains well above the 159.2% seen just before the dot-com bubble.<blockquote>目前的数字仍远高于互联网泡沫前的159.2%。</blockquote> “The stock market is significantly overvalued according to the Buffett Indicator,” said the researchers at GuruFocus. “Based on the historical ratio of total market cap over GDP (the aforementioned 204.4%), it is likely to return -3.3% a year from this level of valuation, including dividends.”<blockquote>GuruFocus的研究人员表示：“根据巴菲特指标，股市被严重高估。”“根据总市值与GDP的历史比率（前面提到的204.4%），从这个估值水平来看，包括股息在内，它每年可能会获得-3.3%的回报。”</blockquote> The Buffett Indicator rose to fame after a2001 Fortune Magazine articlewritten by Buffett and long-time Fortune writer and Buffett insider Carol Loomis.<blockquote>2001年，巴菲特和《财富》杂志长期撰稿人、巴菲特内部人士卡罗尔·卢米斯(Carol Loomis)在《财富》杂志上发表文章后，巴菲特指标一举成名。</blockquote> “The ratio has certain limitations in telling you what you need to know. Still, it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment,” explained Buffett in the article.<blockquote>巴菲特在文章中解释说：“该比率在告诉你需要知道的事情方面有一定的局限性。尽管如此，它可能是衡量任何特定时刻估值水平的最佳单一指标。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffetts-favorite-stock-market-indicator-isnt-alone-in-hinting-stocks-are-due-for-a-breather-192030974.html\">finance.yahoo</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffetts-favorite-stock-market-indicator-isnt-alone-in-hinting-stocks-are-due-for-a-breather-192030974.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147390885","content_text":"The stock market is entering the danger zone, according to one often overlooked measure of equities valuation.\nAt its current level of 38 times, the Shiller P/E Ratio is nearing the peak (44 times) seen at the height just before the dot-com bust in 2000, write strategists atSunDial Capital Research. Created by noted Yale professor Robert Shiller, the ratio is seen as better than the traditional P/E ratio as it adjusts for inflation.\nHistorically, a Shiller PE ratio sustained over 25 times has gone on to be a precursor for sizable pullbacks in the market as presented in the below chart by Sundial Capital Research.\nMarkets look long overdue for a corrections, hints the Shiller P/E Ratio.\nThe team at Sundial is quick to point out that no stock market measure is fool proof or all predictive.\n\"That the stock market is 'overvalued' DOES NOT mean investors need to take drastic action immediately. Because the reality is that the stock market can (and, in fact, has been) overvalued for many years,\" explains Sundial.\nThe group added, \"The current high reading for the Shiller P/E is NOT a 'call to action.' It is more of a 'call to pay close attention.' There are always 'things' to be concerned about that may upset the apple cart.\"\nIn other words, don't sell all your stocks and hide the cash under your bed.\nThat said if you aren't inclined to be a big believer in the Shiller P/E Ratio (count my colleagueMyles Udlandin that camp,watch videoabove), perhaps a closely watched measure by theWarren \"Oracle of Omaha\" Buffettis more in lockstep with your analytical views.\nThe “Buffett Indicator” as it’s called in Wall Street circles — which takes the Wilshire 5000 Index (viewed as the total stock market) and divides it by the annual U.S. GDP — is still seemingly hitting new record highs daily. In crunching the numbers, the Buffett Indicator stands at about 204.4% — up sharply from the 187.5% level (also a record) from when we last wrote about the measure in late February. All data comes to us fromGuruFocus, which extensively tracks the indicator.\nThe existing figure remains well above the 159.2% seen just before the dot-com bubble.\n“The stock market is significantly overvalued according to the Buffett Indicator,” said the researchers at GuruFocus. “Based on the historical ratio of total market cap over GDP (the aforementioned 204.4%), it is likely to return -3.3% a year from this level of valuation, including dividends.”\nThe Buffett Indicator rose to fame after a2001 Fortune Magazine articlewritten by Buffett and long-time Fortune writer and Buffett insider Carol Loomis.\n“The ratio has certain limitations in telling you what you need to know. Still, it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment,” explained Buffett in the article.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5089471,"gmtCreate":1625121367404,"gmtModify":1635239889841,"authorId":3582714812293607,"author":{"id":3582714812293607,"idStr":"3582714812293607","authorId":3582714812293607,"name":"Darylzhuo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd5e4be85ccfbeb4c1c4b4faed74f6f1","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":158936835,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":28,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}