Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth

Seeking Alpha2021-09-08

Summary The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%. While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the ...

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127

71fb4790
·2021-09-08
Yes
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2
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- Vonz:
  ok
  2021-09-08
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4368e193
·2021-09-08
Goodgood
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5
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- 71fb4790:
  Good
  2021-09-08
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- Mooimooi:
  nice
  2021-09-08
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ACCY
·2021-09-08
Yes amazing Amazon! 👏👏👏
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4
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JunHaoT
·2021-09-08
Buy
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7
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BerryNat
·2021-09-08
Thought they were planning to open a megastore?
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5
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Theme
·2021-09-08
Wow… a whopping $4300 future value. Long Amazon!
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- JunHaoT:
  Yes
  2021-09-08
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HuiBing
·2021-09-08
Like pls
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7
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- Mama123:
  Done
  2021-09-08
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- LMC90:
  👍
  2021-09-08
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- OldCat:
  okay
  2021-09-08
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lee1234
·2021-09-08
Like
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5
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- 4368e193:
  Okay
  2021-09-08
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Pluto891
·2021-09-08
abandoning their bricks and mortar biz?
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7
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ThaigerB
·2021-09-08
Like pls👍
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7
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- Reqd:
  Yes
  2021-09-08
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- vincentheng8:
  yes
  2021-09-08
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nonewiser
·2021-09-08
Yeay
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7
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MuppyKoh
·2021-09-08
Please like
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6
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LixNg
·2021-09-08
👍🏻
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4
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Stchua
·2021-09-08
[Smile]
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3
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KTX
·2021-09-08
Like pls
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wongzj
·2021-09-08
Okay
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- KTX:
  Ok
  2021-09-08
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HappyCloud
·2021-09-08
Like pls.
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8
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- wongzj:
  cool
  2021-09-08
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- 156e74f9:
  Done
  2021-09-08
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Jokhang
·2021-09-08
[Smile]
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6
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Wlonggy
·2021-09-08
Like and comment please
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- HappyCloud:
  Ok
  2021-09-08
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- mooooon:
  ok
  2021-09-08
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- Jokhang:
  [Smile]
  2021-09-08
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aliciatng
·2021-09-08
Okay
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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-08 11:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive>Seeking Alpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.\nWhile growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"AMZN","symbol_name":"亚马逊","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive","article_id":"1143120804","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143120804","pubTimestamp":1631072080,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth ra","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"translate_title":"亚马逊：随着向电子商务和云计算增长的转变，股票仍有吸引力","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9},"content_text":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.\nWhile growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.\nAWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.\nWe revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.\n\n4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nSince our previous coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.\nDespite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3 guidance of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.\nSource: Amazon\nE-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth\nAmazon's online store sales have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.\nAccording to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to reach 22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.\n\n\n\nGlobal E-Commerce Market ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Global Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\n\n* B = C x A\nSource: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments\nAmazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.\nSource: Backlinko\nIn addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently attract sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.\nSource: Marketing Charts\nIts market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer & consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel & accessories, books music & video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.\nSource: eMarketer\nAmong the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having purchased electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker units and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average price of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.\nAll in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln products excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.\nThus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.\n\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\nGrowth %\n16.2%\n20.9%\n17.3%\n11.5%\n32.4%\n2.8%\n8.1%\n10.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')\n91.43\n108.35\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n18.5%\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')\n5.0%\n4.5%\n4.1%\n4.2%\n4.6%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n\n\n\n* B = A x C\n*D = B x E\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThe Rise of Third-party Seller Services\nAnother major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.\nWith Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.\nSelling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately provides more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising share of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.\nSource: FourWeekMBA\nThe chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it enhances its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business delivered 1.9 bln packages in the US.\nSource: WebFX\nMoreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming opening of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it announced plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.\nSource: CNBC\nOverall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has free Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.\nSource: Statista\nWe forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which represents 60% of its total sales.\n\n\n\nThird-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nGlobal Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Third Party Market Share ('b')\n5.6%\n5.5%\n5.4%\n6.0%\n6.9%\n7.5%\n8.1%\n8.9%\n\n\nGrowth %\n21%\n-2%\n-2%\n11%\n16%\n9%\n9%\n9%\n\n\nThird-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')\n103\n130\n160\n200\n295\n353\n443\n553\n\n\nGrowth %\n26.2%\n23.1%\n25.0%\n47.5%\n19.8%\n25.3%\n25.0%\n\n\n% Of Revenues ('d')\n22.3%\n24.5%\n26.7%\n26.9%\n27.3%\n27.6%\n27.8%\n28.1%\n\n\nGrowth %\n9.9%\n9.0%\n0.6%\n1.5%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services revenues ('e')\n22.99\n31.88\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n38.7%\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\n\n*C = A x B\n*E = C x D\nSource: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments\nAWS Growth by Data Volume Growth\nAnother key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.\nThe rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nWe projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23% CAGR through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.\n* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently announced a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.\nSource: Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nAll in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.\n\n\n\nAWS Forecasts\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nAWS Market Share\n32.6%\n32.3%\n31.8%\n31.2%\n31.0%\n30.7%\n\n\nAWS Revenues ($ bln)\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nWhile AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.\nSource: Amazon\nAntimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk\nAmazon has been involved in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.\nWhereas in the European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.\nValuation\nThe company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nMore importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the acquisition of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nThe company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.\nTo value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.\n\n\n\nCompany\nEV/EBITDA\n\n\nAmazon\n28.57x\n\n\nAlibaba (BABA)\n21.14x\n\n\nMicrosoft\n25.89x\n\n\nGoogle\n22.46x\n\n\nAverage\n24.52x\n\n\n\nSource: SeekingAlpha\nThe revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.\n\n\n\nAmazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nOnline stores\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPhysical stores\n17.22\n17.19\n16.23\n17.40\n18.55\n19.38\n\n\nGrowth %\n196.9%\n-0.2%\n-5.6%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\nSubscription services\n14.17\n19.21\n25.21\n34.67\n47.68\n65.58\n\n\nGrowth %\n45.8%\n35.6%\n31.2%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n\n\nAWS\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\nOther\n10.11\n14.09\n21.45\n31.27\n45.60\n66.48\n\n\nGrowth %\n117.4%\n39.4%\n52.2%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n\n\nTotal\n232.9\n280.53\n386.07\n447.0\n545.9\n669.1\n\n\nTotal Growth %\n30.9%\n20.5%\n37.6%\n15.8%\n22.1%\n22.6%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nBased on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.\nSource: Khaveen Investments\nVerdict\nIn conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":880790858,"gmtCreate":1631078622974,"gmtModify":1631885273131,"author":{"id":"3586854689081986","authorId":"3586854689081986","name":"71fb4790","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3586854689081986","authorIdStr":"3586854689081986"},"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880790858","repostId":1143120804,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143120804","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631072080,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143120804?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 11:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143120804","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth ra","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li> <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li> <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li> <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年收入增长超出我们预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍有望从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用DCF分析修改了估值，从3,358.73美元获得了4,303.18美元的新目标价。</li></ul>4kodiak/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</blockquote> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.<blockquote>自我们上次报道以来，亚马逊公司(AMZN)的股价已上涨26%，超出了我们24.5%的收入增长预期，并在2020年底上涨了37.6%，其在线零售业务增长了40%，达到近2000亿美元，第三方服务800亿美元。在本次分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和AWS。</blockquote> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.<blockquote>尽管第二季度网上商店销售额增长疲软13%，第三季度同比指引中点疲软13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力。亚马逊已确立市场地位的在线零售。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到2023年，电子商务的份额将从2020年的18%达到22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、作为忠实客户的庞大Prime会员基础以及坚实的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，正如其与第三方卖家的电子商务市场的崛起所证明的那样。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，持续致力于增长并以不断增长的数据量为基础。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth<blockquote>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</blockquote> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.<blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，加速了向电子商务的采用。然而，尽管2021年第二季度在线商店增长同比放缓13%，而第一季度为41%，但我们相信该公司将继续受益于电子商务采用率不断上升的长期推动力。</blockquote> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.<blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向在线购买，电子商务销售额的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将反弹7.2%。因此，2021年电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%实现正常化增长，渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = C x A<blockquote>*B=C x A</blockquote> Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.<blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争优势。更具体地说，很难在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上赢得公司的支持。显然，该公司的Prime会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司具有强大的吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也推动消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Backlinko<blockquote>资料来源：Backlinko</blockquote> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>除了Prime会员之外，该公司还能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，自2017年以来新增卖家330万人，即每天3,718人。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已确立了自己作为市场主导者的地位，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于第二接近的竞争对手。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Marketing Charts<blockquote>资料来源：营销图表</blockquote> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>如下表所示，其在不同产品类别和市场中的市场领导地位相当广泛。例如，其消费品和消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务总销售额的50.2%，占零售总额的26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: eMarketer<blockquote>资料来源：eMarketer</blockquote> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.<blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌(GOOG)和苹果(AAPL)，并继续通过新一代产品和软件更新来开发该产品。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据Echo产品系列103美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为39.4亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.<blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的不断增长，我们预计这一产品广度将继续扩大，并通过产品多样性为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.<blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有成熟的客户群和忠诚的Prime会员生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛的市场领导地位和广泛的产品广度的庞大卖家基础，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店增长是基于我们对其市场份额的预期（基于全球电子商务销售额的5年平均值）为4.5%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>零售销售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>16.2%<blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.9%<blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.3%<blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11.5%<blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.4%<blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.8%<blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.0%<blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入('d')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>91.43<blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></td> <td>108.35<blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>18.5%<blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额('e')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.0%<blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.1%<blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.2%<blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.6%<blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = A x C<blockquote>*B=A x C</blockquote> *D = B x E<blockquote>*D=B x E</blockquote> Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The Rise of Third-party Seller Services<blockquote>第三方卖家服务的兴起</blockquote> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.<blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和运输业务，这已成为一条难以逾越的护城河，很少有其他公司拥有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要送货提供商合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供的计划使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单。</blockquote> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.<blockquote>通过亚马逊物流（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的运营中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金以及相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、货件跟踪和报告。</blockquote> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.<blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更大的灵活性和控制力、更强大的品牌影响力和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的比例不断上升，达到总销售额的62%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: FourWeekMBA<blockquote>资料来源：FourWeekMBA</blockquote> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.<blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和运输网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和UPS竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其交付网络以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国运送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: WebFX<blockquote>来源：WebFX</blockquote> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.<blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，即将于2021年在密苏里州开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输大型客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020年，该公司宣布了7个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州600,000平方英尺的设施、田纳西州855,000平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州625,000平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CNBC<blockquote>资料来源：CNBC</blockquote> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.<blockquote>总体而言，这些都是该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面的优势的因素之一。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数人或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，公司的计划扩张将继续增强其物流网络并保持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista<blockquote>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</blockquote> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.<blockquote>我们预测了该公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，亚马逊的第三方商品销售总额预计将在过去5年的平均增长率为9%。此外，我们还预测，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的27.3%增长1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的60%至75%之间，低于AWS的80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率37%由于与占总销售额60%的销售成本相关的高成本。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额('b')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.6%<blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.5%<blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.4%<blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.0%<blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.9%<blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.5%<blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.9%<blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21%<blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11%<blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></td> <td>16%<blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊商城）GMV('c')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>103<blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></td> <td>130<blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></td> <td>160<blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></td> <td>200<blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></td> <td>295<blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></td> <td>353<blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></td> <td>443<blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></td> <td>553<blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>26.2%<blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>23.1%<blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.5%<blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.8%<blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.3%<blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>% Of Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>佔收入百分比（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.3%<blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>24.5%<blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.7%<blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.9%<blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.3%<blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.8%<blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>28.1%<blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9.9%<blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9.0%<blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>0.6%<blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.5%<blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.99<blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.88<blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>38.7%<blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> *C = A x B<blockquote>*C=A × B</blockquote> *E = C x D<blockquote>*E=C x D</blockquote> Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth<blockquote>AWS按数据量增长增长</blockquote> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.<blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有Netflix(NFLX)、Verizon(VZ)、Capital One(COF)、麦当劳(MCD)等著名大客户。2020年AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，占据云基础设施市场31.8%的市场份额。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已发展成为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软(MSFT)和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.<blockquote>到2025年，全球数据量将增长23%，这支撑了云基础设施市场的快速增长，因为随着数据分析、5G和物联网的兴起，世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.<blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长基于到2025年数据量以23%的CAGR增长，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>*A=B x C资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.<blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS，AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，例如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，以构建基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用区，并计划再推出15个可用区来支持其云增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Canalys、Khaveen投资</blockquote> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.<blockquote>总而言之，我们基于市场份额预测假设来预测AWS的收入增长，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢削弱，但在利用AWS的稳固大客户关系的支持下仍保持其市场领先地位。根据到2023年30.7%的市场份额预测，我们预计AWS收入将增长至815亿美元。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>AWS Forecasts<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>AWS预测</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Market Share<blockquote><tr><td>AWS市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>32.6%<blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.3%<blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.8%<blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.0%<blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>30.7%<blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><tr><td>AWS收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.<blockquote>虽然AWS仅占其总收入的11%，但与其他公司部门的2.8%相比，其29%的高利润率使AWS在2020年占营业收入的59%，这凸显了AWS对其利润的重要性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk<blockquote>反垄断和数据隐私罚款风险</blockquote> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.<blockquote>民主党的报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家那里获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为40%。由于卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取额外费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，由众议院议员组成的两党小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司在一系列广泛的反垄断改革下对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.<blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊遭受了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临8.88亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反了欧盟的通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR允许罚款高达亚马逊收入的4%，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊2020年213亿美元收入的4.2%。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.<blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其利润率不断上升，因为由于其利润率更高的云业务的卓越增长，其净利润率也有所上升。AWS部门的营业利润率高达29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为2.8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.<blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有良好且强大的现金产生能力，过去5年的平均自由现金流利润率为3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购Whole Foods，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于利润率的上升，因为其利润更高的AWS业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.<blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其偿还债务的强大能力。2020年其净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着AWS的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去5年中从32倍稳步上升。</blockquote> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.<blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了DCF估值，因为该公司过去拥有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到的行业平均EV/EBITDA为27.64倍，如下表所示。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Company<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>公司</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>EV/EBITDA<blockquote><td>EV/EBITDA</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>28.57x<blockquote><td>28.57 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Alibaba (BABA)<blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（父亲）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21.14x<blockquote><td>21.14 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Microsoft<blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.89x<blockquote><td>25.89 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Google<blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.46x<blockquote><td>22.46 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Average<blockquote><tr><td>均值</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>24.52x<blockquote><td>24.52 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: SeekingAlpha<blockquote>来源：SeekingAlpha</blockquote> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.<blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS和其他的收入细分总结如下。网上商店预测源自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售额增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场中的第三方卖家GMV份额，并假设其从佣金和相关费用中获得%的收入。基于不断增长的数据量预测，AWS收入来自云市场增长。其他细分市场基于其平均3年增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，并从2027年的12.3%逐步下调，到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务和云计算市场将更加成熟。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Online stores<blockquote><tr><td>在线商店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Physical stores<blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>17.22<blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.19<blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></td> <td>16.23<blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.40<blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></td> <td>18.55<blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.38<blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>196.9%<blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-0.2%<blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-5.6%<blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Subscription services<blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>14.17<blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.21<blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.21<blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.67<blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.68<blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></td> <td>65.58<blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.6%<blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS<blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Other<blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>10.11<blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.09<blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.45<blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.27<blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.60<blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.48<blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>117.4%<blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.4%<blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>52.2%<blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total<blockquote><tr><td>总的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>232.9<blockquote><td>232.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.53<blockquote><td>280.53</td></blockquote></td> <td>386.07<blockquote><td>386.07</td></blockquote></td> <td>447.0<blockquote><td>447.0</td></blockquote></td> <td>545.9<blockquote><td>545.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>669.1<blockquote><td>669.1</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>总增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>30.9%<blockquote><td>30.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.5%<blockquote><td>20.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.6%<blockquote><td>37.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.8%<blockquote><td>15.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.1%<blockquote><td>22.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.6%<blockquote><td>22.6%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.<blockquote>基于12.7%的贴现率（公司的WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为36.9%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：卡文投资</blockquote> Verdict<blockquote>裁决</blockquote> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.<blockquote>总之，我们分析了该公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和AWS。虽然加速增长最终结束，但作为电子商务领域成熟且占主导地位的市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为转向电子商务，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比预计将继续上升，预计到2023年将达到22%。该公司的Prime会员为其提供了大约占美国人口一半的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和运输网络，亚马逊FBA在其在线市场上看到第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户有着密切的关系，管理层也不断致力于满足该细分市场不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预计2021年增长正常化，但我们认为其前景继续受到电子商务和云计算市场不断增长的提振，并将我们的增长率预测修正为2021年的15.8%，随后修正为2020年的22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为购买目标价格为$4,363.96.</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-09-08 11:34\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li> <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li> <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li> <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年收入增长超出我们预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍有望从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用DCF分析修改了估值，从3,358.73美元获得了4,303.18美元的新目标价。</li></ul>4kodiak/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</blockquote> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.<blockquote>自我们上次报道以来，亚马逊公司(AMZN)的股价已上涨26%，超出了我们24.5%的收入增长预期，并在2020年底上涨了37.6%，其在线零售业务增长了40%，达到近2000亿美元，第三方服务800亿美元。在本次分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和AWS。</blockquote> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.<blockquote>尽管第二季度网上商店销售额增长疲软13%，第三季度同比指引中点疲软13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力。亚马逊已确立市场地位的在线零售。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到2023年，电子商务的份额将从2020年的18%达到22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、作为忠实客户的庞大Prime会员基础以及坚实的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，正如其与第三方卖家的电子商务市场的崛起所证明的那样。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，持续致力于增长并以不断增长的数据量为基础。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth<blockquote>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</blockquote> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.<blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，加速了向电子商务的采用。然而，尽管2021年第二季度在线商店增长同比放缓13%，而第一季度为41%，但我们相信该公司将继续受益于电子商务采用率不断上升的长期推动力。</blockquote> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.<blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向在线购买，电子商务销售额的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将反弹7.2%。因此，2021年电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%实现正常化增长，渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = C x A<blockquote>*B=C x A</blockquote> Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.<blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争优势。更具体地说，很难在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上赢得公司的支持。显然，该公司的Prime会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司具有强大的吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也推动消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Backlinko<blockquote>资料来源：Backlinko</blockquote> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>除了Prime会员之外，该公司还能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，自2017年以来新增卖家330万人，即每天3,718人。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已确立了自己作为市场主导者的地位，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于第二接近的竞争对手。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Marketing Charts<blockquote>资料来源：营销图表</blockquote> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>如下表所示，其在不同产品类别和市场中的市场领导地位相当广泛。例如，其消费品和消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务总销售额的50.2%，占零售总额的26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: eMarketer<blockquote>资料来源：eMarketer</blockquote> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.<blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌(GOOG)和苹果(AAPL)，并继续通过新一代产品和软件更新来开发该产品。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据Echo产品系列103美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为39.4亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.<blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的不断增长，我们预计这一产品广度将继续扩大，并通过产品多样性为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.<blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有成熟的客户群和忠诚的Prime会员生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛的市场领导地位和广泛的产品广度的庞大卖家基础，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店增长是基于我们对其市场份额的预期（基于全球电子商务销售额的5年平均值）为4.5%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>零售销售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>16.2%<blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.9%<blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.3%<blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11.5%<blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.4%<blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.8%<blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.0%<blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入('d')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>91.43<blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></td> <td>108.35<blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>18.5%<blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额('e')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.0%<blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.1%<blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.2%<blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.6%<blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = A x C<blockquote>*B=A x C</blockquote> *D = B x E<blockquote>*D=B x E</blockquote> Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The Rise of Third-party Seller Services<blockquote>第三方卖家服务的兴起</blockquote> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.<blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和运输业务，这已成为一条难以逾越的护城河，很少有其他公司拥有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要送货提供商合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供的计划使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单。</blockquote> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.<blockquote>通过亚马逊物流（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的运营中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金以及相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、货件跟踪和报告。</blockquote> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.<blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更大的灵活性和控制力、更强大的品牌影响力和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的比例不断上升，达到总销售额的62%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: FourWeekMBA<blockquote>资料来源：FourWeekMBA</blockquote> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.<blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和运输网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和UPS竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其交付网络以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国运送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: WebFX<blockquote>来源：WebFX</blockquote> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.<blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，即将于2021年在密苏里州开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输大型客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020年，该公司宣布了7个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州600,000平方英尺的设施、田纳西州855,000平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州625,000平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CNBC<blockquote>资料来源：CNBC</blockquote> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.<blockquote>总体而言，这些都是该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面的优势的因素之一。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数人或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，公司的计划扩张将继续增强其物流网络并保持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista<blockquote>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</blockquote> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.<blockquote>我们预测了该公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，亚马逊的第三方商品销售总额预计将在过去5年的平均增长率为9%。此外，我们还预测，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的27.3%增长1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的60%至75%之间，低于AWS的80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率37%由于与占总销售额60%的销售成本相关的高成本。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额('b')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.6%<blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.5%<blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.4%<blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.0%<blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.9%<blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.5%<blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.9%<blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21%<blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11%<blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></td> <td>16%<blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊商城）GMV('c')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>103<blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></td> <td>130<blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></td> <td>160<blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></td> <td>200<blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></td> <td>295<blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></td> <td>353<blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></td> <td>443<blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></td> <td>553<blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>26.2%<blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>23.1%<blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.5%<blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.8%<blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.3%<blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>% Of Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>佔收入百分比（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.3%<blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>24.5%<blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.7%<blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.9%<blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.3%<blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.8%<blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>28.1%<blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9.9%<blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9.0%<blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>0.6%<blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.5%<blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.99<blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.88<blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>38.7%<blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> *C = A x B<blockquote>*C=A × B</blockquote> *E = C x D<blockquote>*E=C x D</blockquote> Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth<blockquote>AWS按数据量增长增长</blockquote> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.<blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有Netflix(NFLX)、Verizon(VZ)、Capital One(COF)、麦当劳(MCD)等著名大客户。2020年AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，占据云基础设施市场31.8%的市场份额。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已发展成为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软(MSFT)和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.<blockquote>到2025年，全球数据量将增长23%，这支撑了云基础设施市场的快速增长，因为随着数据分析、5G和物联网的兴起，世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.<blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长基于到2025年数据量以23%的CAGR增长，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>*A=B x C资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.<blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS，AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，例如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，以构建基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用区，并计划再推出15个可用区来支持其云增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Canalys、Khaveen投资</blockquote> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.<blockquote>总而言之，我们基于市场份额预测假设来预测AWS的收入增长，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢削弱，但在利用AWS的稳固大客户关系的支持下仍保持其市场领先地位。根据到2023年30.7%的市场份额预测，我们预计AWS收入将增长至815亿美元。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>AWS Forecasts<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>AWS预测</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Market Share<blockquote><tr><td>AWS市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>32.6%<blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.3%<blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.8%<blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.0%<blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>30.7%<blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><tr><td>AWS收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.<blockquote>虽然AWS仅占其总收入的11%，但与其他公司部门的2.8%相比，其29%的高利润率使AWS在2020年占营业收入的59%，这凸显了AWS对其利润的重要性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk<blockquote>反垄断和数据隐私罚款风险</blockquote> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.<blockquote>民主党的报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家那里获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为40%。由于卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取额外费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，由众议院议员组成的两党小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司在一系列广泛的反垄断改革下对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.<blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊遭受了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临8.88亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反了欧盟的通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR允许罚款高达亚马逊收入的4%，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊2020年213亿美元收入的4.2%。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.<blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其利润率不断上升，因为由于其利润率更高的云业务的卓越增长，其净利润率也有所上升。AWS部门的营业利润率高达29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为2.8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.<blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有良好且强大的现金产生能力，过去5年的平均自由现金流利润率为3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购Whole Foods，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于利润率的上升，因为其利润更高的AWS业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.<blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其偿还债务的强大能力。2020年其净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着AWS的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去5年中从32倍稳步上升。</blockquote> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.<blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了DCF估值，因为该公司过去拥有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到的行业平均EV/EBITDA为27.64倍，如下表所示。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Company<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>公司</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>EV/EBITDA<blockquote><td>EV/EBITDA</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>28.57x<blockquote><td>28.57 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Alibaba (BABA)<blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（父亲）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21.14x<blockquote><td>21.14 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Microsoft<blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.89x<blockquote><td>25.89 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Google<blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.46x<blockquote><td>22.46 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Average<blockquote><tr><td>均值</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>24.52x<blockquote><td>24.52 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: SeekingAlpha<blockquote>来源：SeekingAlpha</blockquote> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.<blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS和其他的收入细分总结如下。网上商店预测源自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售额增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场中的第三方卖家GMV份额，并假设其从佣金和相关费用中获得%的收入。基于不断增长的数据量预测，AWS收入来自云市场增长。其他细分市场基于其平均3年增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，并从2027年的12.3%逐步下调，到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务和云计算市场将更加成熟。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Online stores<blockquote><tr><td>在线商店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Physical stores<blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>17.22<blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.19<blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></td> <td>16.23<blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.40<blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></td> <td>18.55<blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.38<blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>196.9%<blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-0.2%<blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-5.6%<blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Subscription services<blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>14.17<blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.21<blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.21<blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.67<blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.68<blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></td> <td>65.58<blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.6%<blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS<blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Other<blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>10.11<blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.09<blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.45<blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.27<blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.60<blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.48<blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>117.4%<blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.4%<blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>52.2%<blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total<blockquote><tr><td>总的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>232.9<blockquote><td>232.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.53<blockquote><td>280.53</td></blockquote></td> <td>386.07<blockquote><td>386.07</td></blockquote></td> <td>447.0<blockquote><td>447.0</td></blockquote></td> <td>545.9<blockquote><td>545.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>669.1<blockquote><td>669.1</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>总增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>30.9%<blockquote><td>30.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.5%<blockquote><td>20.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.6%<blockquote><td>37.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.8%<blockquote><td>15.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.1%<blockquote><td>22.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.6%<blockquote><td>22.6%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.<blockquote>基于12.7%的贴现率（公司的WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为36.9%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：卡文投资</blockquote> Verdict<blockquote>裁决</blockquote> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.<blockquote>总之，我们分析了该公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和AWS。虽然加速增长最终结束，但作为电子商务领域成熟且占主导地位的市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为转向电子商务，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比预计将继续上升，预计到2023年将达到22%。该公司的Prime会员为其提供了大约占美国人口一半的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和运输网络，亚马逊FBA在其在线市场上看到第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户有着密切的关系，管理层也不断致力于满足该细分市场不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预计2021年增长正常化，但我们认为其前景继续受到电子商务和云计算市场不断增长的提振，并将我们的增长率预测修正为2021年的15.8%，随后修正为2020年的22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为购买目标价格为$4,363.96.</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143120804","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.\nWhile growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.\nAWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.\nWe revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.\n\n4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nSince our previous coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.\nDespite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3 guidance of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.\nSource: Amazon\nE-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth\nAmazon's online store sales have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.\nAccording to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to reach 22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.\n\n\n\nGlobal E-Commerce Market ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Global Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\n\n* B = C x A\nSource: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments\nAmazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.\nSource: Backlinko\nIn addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently attract sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.\nSource: Marketing Charts\nIts market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer & consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel & accessories, books music & video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.\nSource: eMarketer\nAmong the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having purchased electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker units and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average price of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.\nAll in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln products excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.\nThus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.\n\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\nGrowth %\n16.2%\n20.9%\n17.3%\n11.5%\n32.4%\n2.8%\n8.1%\n10.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')\n91.43\n108.35\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n18.5%\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')\n5.0%\n4.5%\n4.1%\n4.2%\n4.6%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n\n\n\n* B = A x C\n*D = B x E\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThe Rise of Third-party Seller Services\nAnother major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.\nWith Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.\nSelling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately provides more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising share of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.\nSource: FourWeekMBA\nThe chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it enhances its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business delivered 1.9 bln packages in the US.\nSource: WebFX\nMoreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming opening of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it announced plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.\nSource: CNBC\nOverall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has free Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.\nSource: Statista\nWe forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which represents 60% of its total sales.\n\n\n\nThird-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nGlobal Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Third Party Market Share ('b')\n5.6%\n5.5%\n5.4%\n6.0%\n6.9%\n7.5%\n8.1%\n8.9%\n\n\nGrowth %\n21%\n-2%\n-2%\n11%\n16%\n9%\n9%\n9%\n\n\nThird-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')\n103\n130\n160\n200\n295\n353\n443\n553\n\n\nGrowth %\n26.2%\n23.1%\n25.0%\n47.5%\n19.8%\n25.3%\n25.0%\n\n\n% Of Revenues ('d')\n22.3%\n24.5%\n26.7%\n26.9%\n27.3%\n27.6%\n27.8%\n28.1%\n\n\nGrowth %\n9.9%\n9.0%\n0.6%\n1.5%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services revenues ('e')\n22.99\n31.88\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n38.7%\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\n\n*C = A x B\n*E = C x D\nSource: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments\nAWS Growth by Data Volume Growth\nAnother key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.\nThe rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nWe projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23% CAGR through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.\n* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently announced a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.\nSource: Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nAll in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.\n\n\n\nAWS Forecasts\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nAWS Market Share\n32.6%\n32.3%\n31.8%\n31.2%\n31.0%\n30.7%\n\n\nAWS Revenues ($ bln)\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nWhile AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.\nSource: Amazon\nAntimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk\nAmazon has been involved in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.\nWhereas in the European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.\nValuation\nThe company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nMore importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the acquisition of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nThe company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.\nTo value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.\n\n\n\nCompany\nEV/EBITDA\n\n\nAmazon\n28.57x\n\n\nAlibaba (BABA)\n21.14x\n\n\nMicrosoft\n25.89x\n\n\nGoogle\n22.46x\n\n\nAverage\n24.52x\n\n\n\nSource: SeekingAlpha\nThe revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.\n\n\n\nAmazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nOnline stores\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPhysical stores\n17.22\n17.19\n16.23\n17.40\n18.55\n19.38\n\n\nGrowth %\n196.9%\n-0.2%\n-5.6%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\nSubscription services\n14.17\n19.21\n25.21\n34.67\n47.68\n65.58\n\n\nGrowth %\n45.8%\n35.6%\n31.2%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n\n\nAWS\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\nOther\n10.11\n14.09\n21.45\n31.27\n45.60\n66.48\n\n\nGrowth %\n117.4%\n39.4%\n52.2%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n\n\nTotal\n232.9\n280.53\n386.07\n447.0\n545.9\n669.1\n\n\nTotal Growth %\n30.9%\n20.5%\n37.6%\n15.8%\n22.1%\n22.6%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nBased on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.\nSource: Khaveen Investments\nVerdict\nIn conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5790370,"gmtCreate":1631079164442,"gmtModify":1631885273129,"authorId":3581046107767827,"author":{"id":3581046107767827,"idStr":"3581046107767827","authorId":3581046107767827,"name":"Vonz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a1cb72de358038a377e7053d898bb82","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":880790858,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":880707587,"gmtCreate":1631078538649,"gmtModify":1631889549057,"author":{"id":"3584329348613702","authorId":"3584329348613702","name":"4368e193","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3584329348613702","authorIdStr":"3584329348613702"},"htmlText":"Goodgood","listText":"Goodgood","text":"Goodgood","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880707587","repostId":1143120804,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143120804","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631072080,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143120804?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 11:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143120804","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth ra","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li> <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li> <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li> <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年收入增长超出我们预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍有望从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用DCF分析修改了估值，从3,358.73美元获得了4,303.18美元的新目标价。</li></ul>4kodiak/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</blockquote> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.<blockquote>自我们上次报道以来，亚马逊公司(AMZN)的股价已上涨26%，超出了我们24.5%的收入增长预期，并在2020年底上涨了37.6%，其在线零售业务增长了40%，达到近2000亿美元，第三方服务800亿美元。在本次分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和AWS。</blockquote> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.<blockquote>尽管第二季度网上商店销售额增长疲软13%，第三季度同比指引中点疲软13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力。亚马逊已确立市场地位的在线零售。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到2023年，电子商务的份额将从2020年的18%达到22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、作为忠实客户的庞大Prime会员基础以及坚实的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，正如其与第三方卖家的电子商务市场的崛起所证明的那样。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，持续致力于增长并以不断增长的数据量为基础。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth<blockquote>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</blockquote> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.<blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，加速了向电子商务的采用。然而，尽管2021年第二季度在线商店增长同比放缓13%，而第一季度为41%，但我们相信该公司将继续受益于电子商务采用率不断上升的长期推动力。</blockquote> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.<blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向在线购买，电子商务销售额的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将反弹7.2%。因此，2021年电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%实现正常化增长，渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = C x A<blockquote>*B=C x A</blockquote> Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.<blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争优势。更具体地说，很难在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上赢得公司的支持。显然，该公司的Prime会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司具有强大的吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也推动消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Backlinko<blockquote>资料来源：Backlinko</blockquote> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>除了Prime会员之外，该公司还能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，自2017年以来新增卖家330万人，即每天3,718人。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已确立了自己作为市场主导者的地位，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于第二接近的竞争对手。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Marketing Charts<blockquote>资料来源：营销图表</blockquote> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>如下表所示，其在不同产品类别和市场中的市场领导地位相当广泛。例如，其消费品和消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务总销售额的50.2%，占零售总额的26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: eMarketer<blockquote>资料来源：eMarketer</blockquote> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.<blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌(GOOG)和苹果(AAPL)，并继续通过新一代产品和软件更新来开发该产品。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据Echo产品系列103美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为39.4亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.<blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的不断增长，我们预计这一产品广度将继续扩大，并通过产品多样性为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.<blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有成熟的客户群和忠诚的Prime会员生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛的市场领导地位和广泛的产品广度的庞大卖家基础，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店增长是基于我们对其市场份额的预期（基于全球电子商务销售额的5年平均值）为4.5%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>零售销售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>16.2%<blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.9%<blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.3%<blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11.5%<blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.4%<blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.8%<blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.0%<blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入('d')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>91.43<blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></td> <td>108.35<blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>18.5%<blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额('e')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.0%<blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.1%<blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.2%<blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.6%<blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = A x C<blockquote>*B=A x C</blockquote> *D = B x E<blockquote>*D=B x E</blockquote> Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The Rise of Third-party Seller Services<blockquote>第三方卖家服务的兴起</blockquote> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.<blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和运输业务，这已成为一条难以逾越的护城河，很少有其他公司拥有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要送货提供商合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供的计划使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单。</blockquote> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.<blockquote>通过亚马逊物流（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的运营中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金以及相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、货件跟踪和报告。</blockquote> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.<blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更大的灵活性和控制力、更强大的品牌影响力和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的比例不断上升，达到总销售额的62%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: FourWeekMBA<blockquote>资料来源：FourWeekMBA</blockquote> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.<blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和运输网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和UPS竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其交付网络以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国运送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: WebFX<blockquote>来源：WebFX</blockquote> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.<blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，即将于2021年在密苏里州开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输大型客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020年，该公司宣布了7个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州600,000平方英尺的设施、田纳西州855,000平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州625,000平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CNBC<blockquote>资料来源：CNBC</blockquote> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.<blockquote>总体而言，这些都是该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面的优势的因素之一。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数人或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，公司的计划扩张将继续增强其物流网络并保持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista<blockquote>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</blockquote> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.<blockquote>我们预测了该公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，亚马逊的第三方商品销售总额预计将在过去5年的平均增长率为9%。此外，我们还预测，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的27.3%增长1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的60%至75%之间，低于AWS的80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率37%由于与占总销售额60%的销售成本相关的高成本。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额('b')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.6%<blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.5%<blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.4%<blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.0%<blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.9%<blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.5%<blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.9%<blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21%<blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11%<blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></td> <td>16%<blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊商城）GMV('c')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>103<blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></td> <td>130<blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></td> <td>160<blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></td> <td>200<blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></td> <td>295<blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></td> <td>353<blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></td> <td>443<blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></td> <td>553<blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>26.2%<blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>23.1%<blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.5%<blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.8%<blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.3%<blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>% Of Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>佔收入百分比（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.3%<blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>24.5%<blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.7%<blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.9%<blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.3%<blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.8%<blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>28.1%<blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9.9%<blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9.0%<blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>0.6%<blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.5%<blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.99<blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.88<blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>38.7%<blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> *C = A x B<blockquote>*C=A × B</blockquote> *E = C x D<blockquote>*E=C x D</blockquote> Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth<blockquote>AWS按数据量增长增长</blockquote> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.<blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有Netflix(NFLX)、Verizon(VZ)、Capital One(COF)、麦当劳(MCD)等著名大客户。2020年AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，占据云基础设施市场31.8%的市场份额。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已发展成为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软(MSFT)和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.<blockquote>到2025年，全球数据量将增长23%，这支撑了云基础设施市场的快速增长，因为随着数据分析、5G和物联网的兴起，世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.<blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长基于到2025年数据量以23%的CAGR增长，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>*A=B x C资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.<blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS，AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，例如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，以构建基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用区，并计划再推出15个可用区来支持其云增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Canalys、Khaveen投资</blockquote> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.<blockquote>总而言之，我们基于市场份额预测假设来预测AWS的收入增长，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢削弱，但在利用AWS的稳固大客户关系的支持下仍保持其市场领先地位。根据到2023年30.7%的市场份额预测，我们预计AWS收入将增长至815亿美元。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>AWS Forecasts<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>AWS预测</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Market Share<blockquote><tr><td>AWS市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>32.6%<blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.3%<blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.8%<blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.0%<blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>30.7%<blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><tr><td>AWS收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.<blockquote>虽然AWS仅占其总收入的11%，但与其他公司部门的2.8%相比，其29%的高利润率使AWS在2020年占营业收入的59%，这凸显了AWS对其利润的重要性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk<blockquote>反垄断和数据隐私罚款风险</blockquote> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.<blockquote>民主党的报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家那里获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为40%。由于卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取额外费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，由众议院议员组成的两党小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司在一系列广泛的反垄断改革下对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.<blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊遭受了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临8.88亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反了欧盟的通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR允许罚款高达亚马逊收入的4%，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊2020年213亿美元收入的4.2%。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.<blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其利润率不断上升，因为由于其利润率更高的云业务的卓越增长，其净利润率也有所上升。AWS部门的营业利润率高达29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为2.8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.<blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有良好且强大的现金产生能力，过去5年的平均自由现金流利润率为3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购Whole Foods，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于利润率的上升，因为其利润更高的AWS业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.<blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其偿还债务的强大能力。2020年其净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着AWS的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去5年中从32倍稳步上升。</blockquote> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.<blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了DCF估值，因为该公司过去拥有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到的行业平均EV/EBITDA为27.64倍，如下表所示。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Company<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>公司</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>EV/EBITDA<blockquote><td>EV/EBITDA</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>28.57x<blockquote><td>28.57 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Alibaba (BABA)<blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（父亲）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21.14x<blockquote><td>21.14 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Microsoft<blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.89x<blockquote><td>25.89 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Google<blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.46x<blockquote><td>22.46 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Average<blockquote><tr><td>均值</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>24.52x<blockquote><td>24.52 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: SeekingAlpha<blockquote>来源：SeekingAlpha</blockquote> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.<blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS和其他的收入细分总结如下。网上商店预测源自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售额增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场中的第三方卖家GMV份额，并假设其从佣金和相关费用中获得%的收入。基于不断增长的数据量预测，AWS收入来自云市场增长。其他细分市场基于其平均3年增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，并从2027年的12.3%逐步下调，到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务和云计算市场将更加成熟。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Online stores<blockquote><tr><td>在线商店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Physical stores<blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>17.22<blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.19<blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></td> <td>16.23<blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.40<blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></td> <td>18.55<blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.38<blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>196.9%<blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-0.2%<blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-5.6%<blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Subscription services<blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>14.17<blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.21<blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.21<blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.67<blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.68<blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></td> <td>65.58<blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.6%<blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS<blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Other<blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>10.11<blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.09<blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.45<blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.27<blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.60<blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.48<blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>117.4%<blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.4%<blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>52.2%<blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total<blockquote><tr><td>总的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>232.9<blockquote><td>232.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.53<blockquote><td>280.53</td></blockquote></td> <td>386.07<blockquote><td>386.07</td></blockquote></td> <td>447.0<blockquote><td>447.0</td></blockquote></td> <td>545.9<blockquote><td>545.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>669.1<blockquote><td>669.1</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>总增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>30.9%<blockquote><td>30.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.5%<blockquote><td>20.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.6%<blockquote><td>37.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.8%<blockquote><td>15.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.1%<blockquote><td>22.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.6%<blockquote><td>22.6%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.<blockquote>基于12.7%的贴现率（公司的WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为36.9%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：卡文投资</blockquote> Verdict<blockquote>裁决</blockquote> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.<blockquote>总之，我们分析了该公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和AWS。虽然加速增长最终结束，但作为电子商务领域成熟且占主导地位的市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为转向电子商务，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比预计将继续上升，预计到2023年将达到22%。该公司的Prime会员为其提供了大约占美国人口一半的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和运输网络，亚马逊FBA在其在线市场上看到第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户有着密切的关系，管理层也不断致力于满足该细分市场不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预计2021年增长正常化，但我们认为其前景继续受到电子商务和云计算市场不断增长的提振，并将我们的增长率预测修正为2021年的15.8%，随后修正为2020年的22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为购买目标价格为$4,363.96.</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-09-08 11:34\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li> <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li> <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li> <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年收入增长超出我们预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍有望从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用DCF分析修改了估值，从3,358.73美元获得了4,303.18美元的新目标价。</li></ul>4kodiak/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</blockquote> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.<blockquote>自我们上次报道以来，亚马逊公司(AMZN)的股价已上涨26%，超出了我们24.5%的收入增长预期，并在2020年底上涨了37.6%，其在线零售业务增长了40%，达到近2000亿美元，第三方服务800亿美元。在本次分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和AWS。</blockquote> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.<blockquote>尽管第二季度网上商店销售额增长疲软13%，第三季度同比指引中点疲软13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力。亚马逊已确立市场地位的在线零售。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到2023年，电子商务的份额将从2020年的18%达到22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、作为忠实客户的庞大Prime会员基础以及坚实的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，正如其与第三方卖家的电子商务市场的崛起所证明的那样。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，持续致力于增长并以不断增长的数据量为基础。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth<blockquote>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</blockquote> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.<blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，加速了向电子商务的采用。然而，尽管2021年第二季度在线商店增长同比放缓13%，而第一季度为41%，但我们相信该公司将继续受益于电子商务采用率不断上升的长期推动力。</blockquote> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.<blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向在线购买，电子商务销售额的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将反弹7.2%。因此，2021年电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%实现正常化增长，渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = C x A<blockquote>*B=C x A</blockquote> Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.<blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争优势。更具体地说，很难在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上赢得公司的支持。显然，该公司的Prime会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司具有强大的吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也推动消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Backlinko<blockquote>资料来源：Backlinko</blockquote> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>除了Prime会员之外，该公司还能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，自2017年以来新增卖家330万人，即每天3,718人。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已确立了自己作为市场主导者的地位，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于第二接近的竞争对手。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Marketing Charts<blockquote>资料来源：营销图表</blockquote> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>如下表所示，其在不同产品类别和市场中的市场领导地位相当广泛。例如，其消费品和消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务总销售额的50.2%，占零售总额的26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: eMarketer<blockquote>资料来源：eMarketer</blockquote> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.<blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌(GOOG)和苹果(AAPL)，并继续通过新一代产品和软件更新来开发该产品。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据Echo产品系列103美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为39.4亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.<blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的不断增长，我们预计这一产品广度将继续扩大，并通过产品多样性为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.<blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有成熟的客户群和忠诚的Prime会员生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛的市场领导地位和广泛的产品广度的庞大卖家基础，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店增长是基于我们对其市场份额的预期（基于全球电子商务销售额的5年平均值）为4.5%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>零售销售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>16.2%<blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.9%<blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.3%<blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11.5%<blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.4%<blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.8%<blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.0%<blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入('d')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>91.43<blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></td> <td>108.35<blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>18.5%<blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额('e')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.0%<blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.1%<blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.2%<blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.6%<blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = A x C<blockquote>*B=A x C</blockquote> *D = B x E<blockquote>*D=B x E</blockquote> Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The Rise of Third-party Seller Services<blockquote>第三方卖家服务的兴起</blockquote> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.<blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和运输业务，这已成为一条难以逾越的护城河，很少有其他公司拥有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要送货提供商合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供的计划使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单。</blockquote> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.<blockquote>通过亚马逊物流（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的运营中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金以及相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、货件跟踪和报告。</blockquote> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.<blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更大的灵活性和控制力、更强大的品牌影响力和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的比例不断上升，达到总销售额的62%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: FourWeekMBA<blockquote>资料来源：FourWeekMBA</blockquote> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.<blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和运输网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和UPS竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其交付网络以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国运送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: WebFX<blockquote>来源：WebFX</blockquote> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.<blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，即将于2021年在密苏里州开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输大型客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020年，该公司宣布了7个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州600,000平方英尺的设施、田纳西州855,000平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州625,000平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CNBC<blockquote>资料来源：CNBC</blockquote> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.<blockquote>总体而言，这些都是该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面的优势的因素之一。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数人或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，公司的计划扩张将继续增强其物流网络并保持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista<blockquote>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</blockquote> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.<blockquote>我们预测了该公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，亚马逊的第三方商品销售总额预计将在过去5年的平均增长率为9%。此外，我们还预测，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的27.3%增长1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的60%至75%之间，低于AWS的80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率37%由于与占总销售额60%的销售成本相关的高成本。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额('b')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.6%<blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.5%<blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.4%<blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.0%<blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.9%<blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.5%<blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.9%<blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21%<blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11%<blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></td> <td>16%<blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊商城）GMV('c')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>103<blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></td> <td>130<blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></td> <td>160<blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></td> <td>200<blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></td> <td>295<blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></td> <td>353<blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></td> <td>443<blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></td> <td>553<blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>26.2%<blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>23.1%<blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.5%<blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.8%<blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.3%<blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>% Of Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>佔收入百分比（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.3%<blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>24.5%<blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.7%<blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.9%<blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.3%<blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.8%<blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>28.1%<blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9.9%<blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9.0%<blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>0.6%<blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.5%<blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.99<blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.88<blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>38.7%<blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> *C = A x B<blockquote>*C=A × B</blockquote> *E = C x D<blockquote>*E=C x D</blockquote> Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth<blockquote>AWS按数据量增长增长</blockquote> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.<blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有Netflix(NFLX)、Verizon(VZ)、Capital One(COF)、麦当劳(MCD)等著名大客户。2020年AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，占据云基础设施市场31.8%的市场份额。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已发展成为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软(MSFT)和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.<blockquote>到2025年，全球数据量将增长23%，这支撑了云基础设施市场的快速增长，因为随着数据分析、5G和物联网的兴起，世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.<blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长基于到2025年数据量以23%的CAGR增长，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>*A=B x C资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.<blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS，AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，例如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，以构建基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用区，并计划再推出15个可用区来支持其云增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Canalys、Khaveen投资</blockquote> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.<blockquote>总而言之，我们基于市场份额预测假设来预测AWS的收入增长，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢削弱，但在利用AWS的稳固大客户关系的支持下仍保持其市场领先地位。根据到2023年30.7%的市场份额预测，我们预计AWS收入将增长至815亿美元。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>AWS Forecasts<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>AWS预测</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Market Share<blockquote><tr><td>AWS市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>32.6%<blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.3%<blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.8%<blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.0%<blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>30.7%<blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><tr><td>AWS收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.<blockquote>虽然AWS仅占其总收入的11%，但与其他公司部门的2.8%相比，其29%的高利润率使AWS在2020年占营业收入的59%，这凸显了AWS对其利润的重要性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk<blockquote>反垄断和数据隐私罚款风险</blockquote> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.<blockquote>民主党的报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家那里获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为40%。由于卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取额外费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，由众议院议员组成的两党小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司在一系列广泛的反垄断改革下对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.<blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊遭受了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临8.88亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反了欧盟的通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR允许罚款高达亚马逊收入的4%，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊2020年213亿美元收入的4.2%。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.<blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其利润率不断上升，因为由于其利润率更高的云业务的卓越增长，其净利润率也有所上升。AWS部门的营业利润率高达29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为2.8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.<blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有良好且强大的现金产生能力，过去5年的平均自由现金流利润率为3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购Whole Foods，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于利润率的上升，因为其利润更高的AWS业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.<blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其偿还债务的强大能力。2020年其净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着AWS的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去5年中从32倍稳步上升。</blockquote> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.<blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了DCF估值，因为该公司过去拥有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到的行业平均EV/EBITDA为27.64倍，如下表所示。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Company<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>公司</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>EV/EBITDA<blockquote><td>EV/EBITDA</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>28.57x<blockquote><td>28.57 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Alibaba (BABA)<blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（父亲）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21.14x<blockquote><td>21.14 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Microsoft<blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.89x<blockquote><td>25.89 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Google<blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.46x<blockquote><td>22.46 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Average<blockquote><tr><td>均值</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>24.52x<blockquote><td>24.52 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: SeekingAlpha<blockquote>来源：SeekingAlpha</blockquote> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.<blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS和其他的收入细分总结如下。网上商店预测源自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售额增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场中的第三方卖家GMV份额，并假设其从佣金和相关费用中获得%的收入。基于不断增长的数据量预测，AWS收入来自云市场增长。其他细分市场基于其平均3年增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，并从2027年的12.3%逐步下调，到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务和云计算市场将更加成熟。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Online stores<blockquote><tr><td>在线商店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Physical stores<blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>17.22<blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.19<blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></td> <td>16.23<blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.40<blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></td> <td>18.55<blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.38<blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>196.9%<blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-0.2%<blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-5.6%<blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Subscription services<blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>14.17<blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.21<blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.21<blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.67<blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.68<blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></td> <td>65.58<blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.6%<blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS<blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Other<blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>10.11<blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.09<blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.45<blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.27<blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.60<blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.48<blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>117.4%<blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.4%<blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>52.2%<blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total<blockquote><tr><td>总的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>232.9<blockquote><td>232.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.53<blockquote><td>280.53</td></blockquote></td> <td>386.07<blockquote><td>386.07</td></blockquote></td> <td>447.0<blockquote><td>447.0</td></blockquote></td> <td>545.9<blockquote><td>545.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>669.1<blockquote><td>669.1</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>总增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>30.9%<blockquote><td>30.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.5%<blockquote><td>20.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.6%<blockquote><td>37.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.8%<blockquote><td>15.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.1%<blockquote><td>22.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.6%<blockquote><td>22.6%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.<blockquote>基于12.7%的贴现率（公司的WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为36.9%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：卡文投资</blockquote> Verdict<blockquote>裁决</blockquote> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.<blockquote>总之，我们分析了该公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和AWS。虽然加速增长最终结束，但作为电子商务领域成熟且占主导地位的市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为转向电子商务，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比预计将继续上升，预计到2023年将达到22%。该公司的Prime会员为其提供了大约占美国人口一半的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和运输网络，亚马逊FBA在其在线市场上看到第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户有着密切的关系，管理层也不断致力于满足该细分市场不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预计2021年增长正常化，但我们认为其前景继续受到电子商务和云计算市场不断增长的提振，并将我们的增长率预测修正为2021年的15.8%，随后修正为2020年的22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为购买目标价格为$4,363.96.</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143120804","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.\nWhile growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.\nAWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.\nWe revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.\n\n4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nSince our previous coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.\nDespite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3 guidance of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.\nSource: Amazon\nE-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth\nAmazon's online store sales have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.\nAccording to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to reach 22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.\n\n\n\nGlobal E-Commerce Market ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Global Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\n\n* B = C x A\nSource: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments\nAmazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.\nSource: Backlinko\nIn addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently attract sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.\nSource: Marketing Charts\nIts market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer & consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel & accessories, books music & video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.\nSource: eMarketer\nAmong the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having purchased electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker units and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average price of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.\nAll in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln products excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.\nThus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.\n\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\nGrowth %\n16.2%\n20.9%\n17.3%\n11.5%\n32.4%\n2.8%\n8.1%\n10.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')\n91.43\n108.35\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n18.5%\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')\n5.0%\n4.5%\n4.1%\n4.2%\n4.6%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n\n\n\n* B = A x C\n*D = B x E\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThe Rise of Third-party Seller Services\nAnother major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.\nWith Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.\nSelling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately provides more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising share of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.\nSource: FourWeekMBA\nThe chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it enhances its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business delivered 1.9 bln packages in the US.\nSource: WebFX\nMoreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming opening of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it announced plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.\nSource: CNBC\nOverall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has free Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.\nSource: Statista\nWe forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which represents 60% of its total sales.\n\n\n\nThird-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nGlobal Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Third Party Market Share ('b')\n5.6%\n5.5%\n5.4%\n6.0%\n6.9%\n7.5%\n8.1%\n8.9%\n\n\nGrowth %\n21%\n-2%\n-2%\n11%\n16%\n9%\n9%\n9%\n\n\nThird-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')\n103\n130\n160\n200\n295\n353\n443\n553\n\n\nGrowth %\n26.2%\n23.1%\n25.0%\n47.5%\n19.8%\n25.3%\n25.0%\n\n\n% Of Revenues ('d')\n22.3%\n24.5%\n26.7%\n26.9%\n27.3%\n27.6%\n27.8%\n28.1%\n\n\nGrowth %\n9.9%\n9.0%\n0.6%\n1.5%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services revenues ('e')\n22.99\n31.88\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n38.7%\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\n\n*C = A x B\n*E = C x D\nSource: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments\nAWS Growth by Data Volume Growth\nAnother key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.\nThe rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nWe projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23% CAGR through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.\n* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently announced a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.\nSource: Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nAll in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.\n\n\n\nAWS Forecasts\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nAWS Market Share\n32.6%\n32.3%\n31.8%\n31.2%\n31.0%\n30.7%\n\n\nAWS Revenues ($ bln)\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nWhile AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.\nSource: Amazon\nAntimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk\nAmazon has been involved in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.\nWhereas in the European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.\nValuation\nThe company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nMore importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the acquisition of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nThe company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.\nTo value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.\n\n\n\nCompany\nEV/EBITDA\n\n\nAmazon\n28.57x\n\n\nAlibaba (BABA)\n21.14x\n\n\nMicrosoft\n25.89x\n\n\nGoogle\n22.46x\n\n\nAverage\n24.52x\n\n\n\nSource: SeekingAlpha\nThe revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.\n\n\n\nAmazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nOnline stores\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPhysical stores\n17.22\n17.19\n16.23\n17.40\n18.55\n19.38\n\n\nGrowth %\n196.9%\n-0.2%\n-5.6%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\nSubscription services\n14.17\n19.21\n25.21\n34.67\n47.68\n65.58\n\n\nGrowth %\n45.8%\n35.6%\n31.2%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n\n\nAWS\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\nOther\n10.11\n14.09\n21.45\n31.27\n45.60\n66.48\n\n\nGrowth %\n117.4%\n39.4%\n52.2%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n\n\nTotal\n232.9\n280.53\n386.07\n447.0\n545.9\n669.1\n\n\nTotal Growth %\n30.9%\n20.5%\n37.6%\n15.8%\n22.1%\n22.6%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nBased on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.\nSource: Khaveen Investments\nVerdict\nIn conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5790284,"gmtCreate":1631078630694,"gmtModify":1631889549072,"authorId":3586854689081986,"author":{"id":3586854689081986,"idStr":"3586854689081986","authorId":3586854689081986,"name":"71fb4790","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":880707587,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Good","text":"Good","html":"Good"},{"id":5790276,"gmtCreate":1631078555332,"gmtModify":1631889549059,"authorId":3581824074294147,"author":{"id":3581824074294147,"idStr":"3581824074294147","authorId":3581824074294147,"name":"Mooimooi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84d1447cbd42e40f88812481e8c6e72e","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":880707587,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"nice","text":"nice","html":"nice"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":880700591,"gmtCreate":1631077600813,"gmtModify":1631893593186,"author":{"id":"3579758808989513","authorId":"3579758808989513","name":"ACCY","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a44626552831eb06aa01cf85dcaf7422","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3579758808989513","authorIdStr":"3579758808989513"},"htmlText":"Yes amazing Amazon! 👏👏👏","listText":"Yes amazing Amazon! 👏👏👏","text":"Yes amazing Amazon! 👏👏👏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880700591","repostId":1143120804,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143120804","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631072080,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143120804?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 11:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143120804","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth ra","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li> <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li> <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li> <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年收入增长超出我们预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍有望从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用DCF分析修改了估值，从3,358.73美元获得了4,303.18美元的新目标价。</li></ul>4kodiak/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</blockquote> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.<blockquote>自我们上次报道以来，亚马逊公司(AMZN)的股价已上涨26%，超出了我们24.5%的收入增长预期，并在2020年底上涨了37.6%，其在线零售业务增长了40%，达到近2000亿美元，第三方服务800亿美元。在本次分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和AWS。</blockquote> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.<blockquote>尽管第二季度网上商店销售额增长疲软13%，第三季度同比指引中点疲软13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力。亚马逊已确立市场地位的在线零售。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到2023年，电子商务的份额将从2020年的18%达到22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、作为忠实客户的庞大Prime会员基础以及坚实的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，正如其与第三方卖家的电子商务市场的崛起所证明的那样。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，持续致力于增长并以不断增长的数据量为基础。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth<blockquote>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</blockquote> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.<blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，加速了向电子商务的采用。然而，尽管2021年第二季度在线商店增长同比放缓13%，而第一季度为41%，但我们相信该公司将继续受益于电子商务采用率不断上升的长期推动力。</blockquote> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.<blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向在线购买，电子商务销售额的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将反弹7.2%。因此，2021年电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%实现正常化增长，渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = C x A<blockquote>*B=C x A</blockquote> Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.<blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争优势。更具体地说，很难在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上赢得公司的支持。显然，该公司的Prime会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司具有强大的吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也推动消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Backlinko<blockquote>资料来源：Backlinko</blockquote> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>除了Prime会员之外，该公司还能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，自2017年以来新增卖家330万人，即每天3,718人。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已确立了自己作为市场主导者的地位，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于第二接近的竞争对手。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Marketing Charts<blockquote>资料来源：营销图表</blockquote> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>如下表所示，其在不同产品类别和市场中的市场领导地位相当广泛。例如，其消费品和消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务总销售额的50.2%，占零售总额的26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: eMarketer<blockquote>资料来源：eMarketer</blockquote> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.<blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌(GOOG)和苹果(AAPL)，并继续通过新一代产品和软件更新来开发该产品。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据Echo产品系列103美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为39.4亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.<blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的不断增长，我们预计这一产品广度将继续扩大，并通过产品多样性为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.<blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有成熟的客户群和忠诚的Prime会员生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛的市场领导地位和广泛的产品广度的庞大卖家基础，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店增长是基于我们对其市场份额的预期（基于全球电子商务销售额的5年平均值）为4.5%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>零售销售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>16.2%<blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.9%<blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.3%<blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11.5%<blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.4%<blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.8%<blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.0%<blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入('d')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>91.43<blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></td> <td>108.35<blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>18.5%<blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额('e')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.0%<blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.1%<blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.2%<blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.6%<blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = A x C<blockquote>*B=A x C</blockquote> *D = B x E<blockquote>*D=B x E</blockquote> Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The Rise of Third-party Seller Services<blockquote>第三方卖家服务的兴起</blockquote> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.<blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和运输业务，这已成为一条难以逾越的护城河，很少有其他公司拥有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要送货提供商合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供的计划使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单。</blockquote> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.<blockquote>通过亚马逊物流（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的运营中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金以及相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、货件跟踪和报告。</blockquote> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.<blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更大的灵活性和控制力、更强大的品牌影响力和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的比例不断上升，达到总销售额的62%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: FourWeekMBA<blockquote>资料来源：FourWeekMBA</blockquote> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.<blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和运输网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和UPS竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其交付网络以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国运送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: WebFX<blockquote>来源：WebFX</blockquote> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.<blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，即将于2021年在密苏里州开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输大型客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020年，该公司宣布了7个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州600,000平方英尺的设施、田纳西州855,000平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州625,000平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CNBC<blockquote>资料来源：CNBC</blockquote> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.<blockquote>总体而言，这些都是该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面的优势的因素之一。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数人或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，公司的计划扩张将继续增强其物流网络并保持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista<blockquote>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</blockquote> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.<blockquote>我们预测了该公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，亚马逊的第三方商品销售总额预计将在过去5年的平均增长率为9%。此外，我们还预测，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的27.3%增长1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的60%至75%之间，低于AWS的80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率37%由于与占总销售额60%的销售成本相关的高成本。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额('b')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.6%<blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.5%<blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.4%<blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.0%<blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.9%<blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.5%<blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.9%<blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21%<blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11%<blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></td> <td>16%<blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊商城）GMV('c')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>103<blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></td> <td>130<blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></td> <td>160<blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></td> <td>200<blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></td> <td>295<blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></td> <td>353<blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></td> <td>443<blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></td> <td>553<blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>26.2%<blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>23.1%<blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.5%<blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.8%<blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.3%<blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>% Of Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>佔收入百分比（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.3%<blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>24.5%<blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.7%<blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.9%<blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.3%<blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.8%<blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>28.1%<blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9.9%<blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9.0%<blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>0.6%<blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.5%<blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.99<blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.88<blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>38.7%<blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> *C = A x B<blockquote>*C=A × B</blockquote> *E = C x D<blockquote>*E=C x D</blockquote> Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth<blockquote>AWS按数据量增长增长</blockquote> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.<blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有Netflix(NFLX)、Verizon(VZ)、Capital One(COF)、麦当劳(MCD)等著名大客户。2020年AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，占据云基础设施市场31.8%的市场份额。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已发展成为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软(MSFT)和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.<blockquote>到2025年，全球数据量将增长23%，这支撑了云基础设施市场的快速增长，因为随着数据分析、5G和物联网的兴起，世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.<blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长基于到2025年数据量以23%的CAGR增长，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>*A=B x C资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.<blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS，AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，例如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，以构建基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用区，并计划再推出15个可用区来支持其云增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Canalys、Khaveen投资</blockquote> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.<blockquote>总而言之，我们基于市场份额预测假设来预测AWS的收入增长，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢削弱，但在利用AWS的稳固大客户关系的支持下仍保持其市场领先地位。根据到2023年30.7%的市场份额预测，我们预计AWS收入将增长至815亿美元。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>AWS Forecasts<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>AWS预测</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Market Share<blockquote><tr><td>AWS市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>32.6%<blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.3%<blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.8%<blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.0%<blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>30.7%<blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><tr><td>AWS收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.<blockquote>虽然AWS仅占其总收入的11%，但与其他公司部门的2.8%相比，其29%的高利润率使AWS在2020年占营业收入的59%，这凸显了AWS对其利润的重要性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk<blockquote>反垄断和数据隐私罚款风险</blockquote> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.<blockquote>民主党的报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家那里获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为40%。由于卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取额外费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，由众议院议员组成的两党小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司在一系列广泛的反垄断改革下对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.<blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊遭受了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临8.88亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反了欧盟的通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR允许罚款高达亚马逊收入的4%，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊2020年213亿美元收入的4.2%。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.<blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其利润率不断上升，因为由于其利润率更高的云业务的卓越增长，其净利润率也有所上升。AWS部门的营业利润率高达29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为2.8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.<blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有良好且强大的现金产生能力，过去5年的平均自由现金流利润率为3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购Whole Foods，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于利润率的上升，因为其利润更高的AWS业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.<blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其偿还债务的强大能力。2020年其净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着AWS的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去5年中从32倍稳步上升。</blockquote> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.<blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了DCF估值，因为该公司过去拥有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到的行业平均EV/EBITDA为27.64倍，如下表所示。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Company<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>公司</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>EV/EBITDA<blockquote><td>EV/EBITDA</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>28.57x<blockquote><td>28.57 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Alibaba (BABA)<blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（父亲）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21.14x<blockquote><td>21.14 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Microsoft<blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.89x<blockquote><td>25.89 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Google<blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.46x<blockquote><td>22.46 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Average<blockquote><tr><td>均值</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>24.52x<blockquote><td>24.52 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: SeekingAlpha<blockquote>来源：SeekingAlpha</blockquote> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.<blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS和其他的收入细分总结如下。网上商店预测源自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售额增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场中的第三方卖家GMV份额，并假设其从佣金和相关费用中获得%的收入。基于不断增长的数据量预测，AWS收入来自云市场增长。其他细分市场基于其平均3年增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，并从2027年的12.3%逐步下调，到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务和云计算市场将更加成熟。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Online stores<blockquote><tr><td>在线商店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Physical stores<blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>17.22<blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.19<blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></td> <td>16.23<blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.40<blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></td> <td>18.55<blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.38<blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>196.9%<blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-0.2%<blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-5.6%<blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Subscription services<blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>14.17<blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.21<blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.21<blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.67<blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.68<blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></td> <td>65.58<blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.6%<blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS<blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Other<blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>10.11<blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.09<blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.45<blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.27<blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.60<blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.48<blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>117.4%<blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.4%<blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>52.2%<blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total<blockquote><tr><td>总的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>232.9<blockquote><td>232.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.53<blockquote><td>280.53</td></blockquote></td> <td>386.07<blockquote><td>386.07</td></blockquote></td> <td>447.0<blockquote><td>447.0</td></blockquote></td> <td>545.9<blockquote><td>545.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>669.1<blockquote><td>669.1</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>总增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>30.9%<blockquote><td>30.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.5%<blockquote><td>20.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.6%<blockquote><td>37.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.8%<blockquote><td>15.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.1%<blockquote><td>22.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.6%<blockquote><td>22.6%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.<blockquote>基于12.7%的贴现率（公司的WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为36.9%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：卡文投资</blockquote> Verdict<blockquote>裁决</blockquote> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.<blockquote>总之，我们分析了该公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和AWS。虽然加速增长最终结束，但作为电子商务领域成熟且占主导地位的市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为转向电子商务，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比预计将继续上升，预计到2023年将达到22%。该公司的Prime会员为其提供了大约占美国人口一半的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和运输网络，亚马逊FBA在其在线市场上看到第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户有着密切的关系，管理层也不断致力于满足该细分市场不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预计2021年增长正常化，但我们认为其前景继续受到电子商务和云计算市场不断增长的提振，并将我们的增长率预测修正为2021年的15.8%，随后修正为2020年的22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为购买目标价格为$4,363.96.</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-09-08 11:34\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li> <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li> <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li> <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年收入增长超出我们预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍有望从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用DCF分析修改了估值，从3,358.73美元获得了4,303.18美元的新目标价。</li></ul>4kodiak/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</blockquote> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.<blockquote>自我们上次报道以来，亚马逊公司(AMZN)的股价已上涨26%，超出了我们24.5%的收入增长预期，并在2020年底上涨了37.6%，其在线零售业务增长了40%，达到近2000亿美元，第三方服务800亿美元。在本次分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和AWS。</blockquote> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.<blockquote>尽管第二季度网上商店销售额增长疲软13%，第三季度同比指引中点疲软13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力。亚马逊已确立市场地位的在线零售。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到2023年，电子商务的份额将从2020年的18%达到22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、作为忠实客户的庞大Prime会员基础以及坚实的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，正如其与第三方卖家的电子商务市场的崛起所证明的那样。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，持续致力于增长并以不断增长的数据量为基础。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth<blockquote>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</blockquote> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.<blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，加速了向电子商务的采用。然而，尽管2021年第二季度在线商店增长同比放缓13%，而第一季度为41%，但我们相信该公司将继续受益于电子商务采用率不断上升的长期推动力。</blockquote> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.<blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向在线购买，电子商务销售额的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将反弹7.2%。因此，2021年电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%实现正常化增长，渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = C x A<blockquote>*B=C x A</blockquote> Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.<blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争优势。更具体地说，很难在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上赢得公司的支持。显然，该公司的Prime会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司具有强大的吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也推动消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Backlinko<blockquote>资料来源：Backlinko</blockquote> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>除了Prime会员之外，该公司还能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，自2017年以来新增卖家330万人，即每天3,718人。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已确立了自己作为市场主导者的地位，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于第二接近的竞争对手。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Marketing Charts<blockquote>资料来源：营销图表</blockquote> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>如下表所示，其在不同产品类别和市场中的市场领导地位相当广泛。例如，其消费品和消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务总销售额的50.2%，占零售总额的26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: eMarketer<blockquote>资料来源：eMarketer</blockquote> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.<blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌(GOOG)和苹果(AAPL)，并继续通过新一代产品和软件更新来开发该产品。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据Echo产品系列103美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为39.4亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.<blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的不断增长，我们预计这一产品广度将继续扩大，并通过产品多样性为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.<blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有成熟的客户群和忠诚的Prime会员生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛的市场领导地位和广泛的产品广度的庞大卖家基础，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店增长是基于我们对其市场份额的预期（基于全球电子商务销售额的5年平均值）为4.5%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>零售销售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>16.2%<blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.9%<blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.3%<blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11.5%<blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.4%<blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.8%<blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.0%<blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入('d')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>91.43<blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></td> <td>108.35<blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>18.5%<blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额('e')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.0%<blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.1%<blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.2%<blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.6%<blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = A x C<blockquote>*B=A x C</blockquote> *D = B x E<blockquote>*D=B x E</blockquote> Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The Rise of Third-party Seller Services<blockquote>第三方卖家服务的兴起</blockquote> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.<blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和运输业务，这已成为一条难以逾越的护城河，很少有其他公司拥有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要送货提供商合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供的计划使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单。</blockquote> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.<blockquote>通过亚马逊物流（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的运营中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金以及相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、货件跟踪和报告。</blockquote> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.<blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更大的灵活性和控制力、更强大的品牌影响力和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的比例不断上升，达到总销售额的62%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: FourWeekMBA<blockquote>资料来源：FourWeekMBA</blockquote> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.<blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和运输网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和UPS竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其交付网络以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国运送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: WebFX<blockquote>来源：WebFX</blockquote> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.<blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，即将于2021年在密苏里州开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输大型客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020年，该公司宣布了7个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州600,000平方英尺的设施、田纳西州855,000平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州625,000平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CNBC<blockquote>资料来源：CNBC</blockquote> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.<blockquote>总体而言，这些都是该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面的优势的因素之一。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数人或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，公司的计划扩张将继续增强其物流网络并保持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista<blockquote>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</blockquote> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.<blockquote>我们预测了该公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，亚马逊的第三方商品销售总额预计将在过去5年的平均增长率为9%。此外，我们还预测，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的27.3%增长1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的60%至75%之间，低于AWS的80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率37%由于与占总销售额60%的销售成本相关的高成本。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额('b')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.6%<blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.5%<blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.4%<blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.0%<blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.9%<blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.5%<blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.9%<blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21%<blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11%<blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></td> <td>16%<blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊商城）GMV('c')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>103<blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></td> <td>130<blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></td> <td>160<blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></td> <td>200<blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></td> <td>295<blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></td> <td>353<blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></td> <td>443<blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></td> <td>553<blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>26.2%<blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>23.1%<blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.5%<blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.8%<blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.3%<blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>% Of Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>佔收入百分比（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.3%<blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>24.5%<blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.7%<blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.9%<blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.3%<blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.8%<blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>28.1%<blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9.9%<blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9.0%<blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>0.6%<blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.5%<blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.99<blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.88<blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>38.7%<blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> *C = A x B<blockquote>*C=A × B</blockquote> *E = C x D<blockquote>*E=C x D</blockquote> Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth<blockquote>AWS按数据量增长增长</blockquote> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.<blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有Netflix(NFLX)、Verizon(VZ)、Capital One(COF)、麦当劳(MCD)等著名大客户。2020年AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，占据云基础设施市场31.8%的市场份额。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已发展成为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软(MSFT)和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.<blockquote>到2025年，全球数据量将增长23%，这支撑了云基础设施市场的快速增长，因为随着数据分析、5G和物联网的兴起，世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.<blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长基于到2025年数据量以23%的CAGR增长，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>*A=B x C资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.<blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS，AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，例如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，以构建基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用区，并计划再推出15个可用区来支持其云增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Canalys、Khaveen投资</blockquote> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.<blockquote>总而言之，我们基于市场份额预测假设来预测AWS的收入增长，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢削弱，但在利用AWS的稳固大客户关系的支持下仍保持其市场领先地位。根据到2023年30.7%的市场份额预测，我们预计AWS收入将增长至815亿美元。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>AWS Forecasts<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>AWS预测</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Market Share<blockquote><tr><td>AWS市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>32.6%<blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.3%<blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.8%<blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.0%<blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>30.7%<blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><tr><td>AWS收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.<blockquote>虽然AWS仅占其总收入的11%，但与其他公司部门的2.8%相比，其29%的高利润率使AWS在2020年占营业收入的59%，这凸显了AWS对其利润的重要性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk<blockquote>反垄断和数据隐私罚款风险</blockquote> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.<blockquote>民主党的报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家那里获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为40%。由于卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取额外费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，由众议院议员组成的两党小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司在一系列广泛的反垄断改革下对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.<blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊遭受了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临8.88亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反了欧盟的通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR允许罚款高达亚马逊收入的4%，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊2020年213亿美元收入的4.2%。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.<blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其利润率不断上升，因为由于其利润率更高的云业务的卓越增长，其净利润率也有所上升。AWS部门的营业利润率高达29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为2.8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.<blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有良好且强大的现金产生能力，过去5年的平均自由现金流利润率为3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购Whole Foods，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于利润率的上升，因为其利润更高的AWS业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.<blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其偿还债务的强大能力。2020年其净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着AWS的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去5年中从32倍稳步上升。</blockquote> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.<blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了DCF估值，因为该公司过去拥有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到的行业平均EV/EBITDA为27.64倍，如下表所示。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Company<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>公司</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>EV/EBITDA<blockquote><td>EV/EBITDA</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>28.57x<blockquote><td>28.57 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Alibaba (BABA)<blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（父亲）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21.14x<blockquote><td>21.14 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Microsoft<blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.89x<blockquote><td>25.89 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Google<blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.46x<blockquote><td>22.46 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Average<blockquote><tr><td>均值</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>24.52x<blockquote><td>24.52 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: SeekingAlpha<blockquote>来源：SeekingAlpha</blockquote> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.<blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS和其他的收入细分总结如下。网上商店预测源自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售额增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场中的第三方卖家GMV份额，并假设其从佣金和相关费用中获得%的收入。基于不断增长的数据量预测，AWS收入来自云市场增长。其他细分市场基于其平均3年增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，并从2027年的12.3%逐步下调，到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务和云计算市场将更加成熟。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Online stores<blockquote><tr><td>在线商店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Physical stores<blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>17.22<blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.19<blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></td> <td>16.23<blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.40<blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></td> <td>18.55<blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.38<blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>196.9%<blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-0.2%<blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-5.6%<blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Subscription services<blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>14.17<blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.21<blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.21<blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.67<blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.68<blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></td> <td>65.58<blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.6%<blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS<blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Other<blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>10.11<blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.09<blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.45<blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.27<blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.60<blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.48<blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>117.4%<blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.4%<blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>52.2%<blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total<blockquote><tr><td>总的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>232.9<blockquote><td>232.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.53<blockquote><td>280.53</td></blockquote></td> <td>386.07<blockquote><td>386.07</td></blockquote></td> <td>447.0<blockquote><td>447.0</td></blockquote></td> <td>545.9<blockquote><td>545.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>669.1<blockquote><td>669.1</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>总增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>30.9%<blockquote><td>30.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.5%<blockquote><td>20.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.6%<blockquote><td>37.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.8%<blockquote><td>15.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.1%<blockquote><td>22.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.6%<blockquote><td>22.6%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.<blockquote>基于12.7%的贴现率（公司的WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为36.9%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：卡文投资</blockquote> Verdict<blockquote>裁决</blockquote> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.<blockquote>总之，我们分析了该公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和AWS。虽然加速增长最终结束，但作为电子商务领域成熟且占主导地位的市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为转向电子商务，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比预计将继续上升，预计到2023年将达到22%。该公司的Prime会员为其提供了大约占美国人口一半的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和运输网络，亚马逊FBA在其在线市场上看到第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户有着密切的关系，管理层也不断致力于满足该细分市场不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预计2021年增长正常化，但我们认为其前景继续受到电子商务和云计算市场不断增长的提振，并将我们的增长率预测修正为2021年的15.8%，随后修正为2020年的22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为购买目标价格为$4,363.96.</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143120804","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.\nWhile growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.\nAWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.\nWe revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.\n\n4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nSince our previous coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.\nDespite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3 guidance of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.\nSource: Amazon\nE-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth\nAmazon's online store sales have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.\nAccording to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to reach 22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.\n\n\n\nGlobal E-Commerce Market ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Global Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\n\n* B = C x A\nSource: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments\nAmazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.\nSource: Backlinko\nIn addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently attract sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.\nSource: Marketing Charts\nIts market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer & consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel & accessories, books music & video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.\nSource: eMarketer\nAmong the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having purchased electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker units and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average price of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.\nAll in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln products excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.\nThus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.\n\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\nGrowth %\n16.2%\n20.9%\n17.3%\n11.5%\n32.4%\n2.8%\n8.1%\n10.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')\n91.43\n108.35\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n18.5%\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')\n5.0%\n4.5%\n4.1%\n4.2%\n4.6%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n\n\n\n* B = A x C\n*D = B x E\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThe Rise of Third-party Seller Services\nAnother major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.\nWith Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.\nSelling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately provides more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising share of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.\nSource: FourWeekMBA\nThe chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it enhances its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business delivered 1.9 bln packages in the US.\nSource: WebFX\nMoreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming opening of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it announced plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.\nSource: CNBC\nOverall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has free Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.\nSource: Statista\nWe forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which represents 60% of its total sales.\n\n\n\nThird-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nGlobal Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Third Party Market Share ('b')\n5.6%\n5.5%\n5.4%\n6.0%\n6.9%\n7.5%\n8.1%\n8.9%\n\n\nGrowth %\n21%\n-2%\n-2%\n11%\n16%\n9%\n9%\n9%\n\n\nThird-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')\n103\n130\n160\n200\n295\n353\n443\n553\n\n\nGrowth %\n26.2%\n23.1%\n25.0%\n47.5%\n19.8%\n25.3%\n25.0%\n\n\n% Of Revenues ('d')\n22.3%\n24.5%\n26.7%\n26.9%\n27.3%\n27.6%\n27.8%\n28.1%\n\n\nGrowth %\n9.9%\n9.0%\n0.6%\n1.5%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services revenues ('e')\n22.99\n31.88\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n38.7%\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\n\n*C = A x B\n*E = C x D\nSource: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments\nAWS Growth by Data Volume Growth\nAnother key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.\nThe rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nWe projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23% CAGR through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.\n* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently announced a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.\nSource: Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nAll in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.\n\n\n\nAWS Forecasts\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nAWS Market Share\n32.6%\n32.3%\n31.8%\n31.2%\n31.0%\n30.7%\n\n\nAWS Revenues ($ bln)\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nWhile AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.\nSource: Amazon\nAntimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk\nAmazon has been involved in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.\nWhereas in the European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.\nValuation\nThe company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nMore importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the acquisition of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nThe company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.\nTo value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.\n\n\n\nCompany\nEV/EBITDA\n\n\nAmazon\n28.57x\n\n\nAlibaba (BABA)\n21.14x\n\n\nMicrosoft\n25.89x\n\n\nGoogle\n22.46x\n\n\nAverage\n24.52x\n\n\n\nSource: SeekingAlpha\nThe revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.\n\n\n\nAmazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nOnline stores\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPhysical stores\n17.22\n17.19\n16.23\n17.40\n18.55\n19.38\n\n\nGrowth %\n196.9%\n-0.2%\n-5.6%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\nSubscription services\n14.17\n19.21\n25.21\n34.67\n47.68\n65.58\n\n\nGrowth %\n45.8%\n35.6%\n31.2%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n\n\nAWS\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\nOther\n10.11\n14.09\n21.45\n31.27\n45.60\n66.48\n\n\nGrowth %\n117.4%\n39.4%\n52.2%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n\n\nTotal\n232.9\n280.53\n386.07\n447.0\n545.9\n669.1\n\n\nTotal Growth %\n30.9%\n20.5%\n37.6%\n15.8%\n22.1%\n22.6%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nBased on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.\nSource: Khaveen Investments\nVerdict\nIn conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":880477946,"gmtCreate":1631077338985,"gmtModify":1631890024816,"author":{"id":"4091088321144510","authorId":"4091088321144510","name":"JunHaoT","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4091088321144510","authorIdStr":"4091088321144510"},"htmlText":"Buy","listText":"Buy","text":"Buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880477946","repostId":1143120804,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143120804","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631072080,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143120804?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 11:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143120804","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth ra","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li> <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li> <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li> <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年收入增长超出我们预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍有望从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用DCF分析修改了估值，从3,358.73美元获得了4,303.18美元的新目标价。</li></ul>4kodiak/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</blockquote> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.<blockquote>自我们上次报道以来，亚马逊公司(AMZN)的股价已上涨26%，超出了我们24.5%的收入增长预期，并在2020年底上涨了37.6%，其在线零售业务增长了40%，达到近2000亿美元，第三方服务800亿美元。在本次分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和AWS。</blockquote> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.<blockquote>尽管第二季度网上商店销售额增长疲软13%，第三季度同比指引中点疲软13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力。亚马逊已确立市场地位的在线零售。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到2023年，电子商务的份额将从2020年的18%达到22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、作为忠实客户的庞大Prime会员基础以及坚实的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，正如其与第三方卖家的电子商务市场的崛起所证明的那样。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，持续致力于增长并以不断增长的数据量为基础。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth<blockquote>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</blockquote> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.<blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，加速了向电子商务的采用。然而，尽管2021年第二季度在线商店增长同比放缓13%，而第一季度为41%，但我们相信该公司将继续受益于电子商务采用率不断上升的长期推动力。</blockquote> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.<blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向在线购买，电子商务销售额的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将反弹7.2%。因此，2021年电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%实现正常化增长，渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = C x A<blockquote>*B=C x A</blockquote> Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.<blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争优势。更具体地说，很难在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上赢得公司的支持。显然，该公司的Prime会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司具有强大的吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也推动消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Backlinko<blockquote>资料来源：Backlinko</blockquote> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>除了Prime会员之外，该公司还能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，自2017年以来新增卖家330万人，即每天3,718人。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已确立了自己作为市场主导者的地位，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于第二接近的竞争对手。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Marketing Charts<blockquote>资料来源：营销图表</blockquote> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>如下表所示，其在不同产品类别和市场中的市场领导地位相当广泛。例如，其消费品和消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务总销售额的50.2%，占零售总额的26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: eMarketer<blockquote>资料来源：eMarketer</blockquote> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.<blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌(GOOG)和苹果(AAPL)，并继续通过新一代产品和软件更新来开发该产品。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据Echo产品系列103美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为39.4亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.<blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的不断增长，我们预计这一产品广度将继续扩大，并通过产品多样性为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.<blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有成熟的客户群和忠诚的Prime会员生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛的市场领导地位和广泛的产品广度的庞大卖家基础，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店增长是基于我们对其市场份额的预期（基于全球电子商务销售额的5年平均值）为4.5%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>零售销售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>16.2%<blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.9%<blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.3%<blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11.5%<blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.4%<blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.8%<blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.0%<blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入('d')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>91.43<blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></td> <td>108.35<blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>18.5%<blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额('e')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.0%<blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.1%<blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.2%<blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.6%<blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = A x C<blockquote>*B=A x C</blockquote> *D = B x E<blockquote>*D=B x E</blockquote> Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The Rise of Third-party Seller Services<blockquote>第三方卖家服务的兴起</blockquote> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.<blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和运输业务，这已成为一条难以逾越的护城河，很少有其他公司拥有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要送货提供商合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供的计划使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单。</blockquote> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.<blockquote>通过亚马逊物流（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的运营中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金以及相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、货件跟踪和报告。</blockquote> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.<blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更大的灵活性和控制力、更强大的品牌影响力和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的比例不断上升，达到总销售额的62%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: FourWeekMBA<blockquote>资料来源：FourWeekMBA</blockquote> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.<blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和运输网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和UPS竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其交付网络以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国运送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: WebFX<blockquote>来源：WebFX</blockquote> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.<blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，即将于2021年在密苏里州开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输大型客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020年，该公司宣布了7个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州600,000平方英尺的设施、田纳西州855,000平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州625,000平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CNBC<blockquote>资料来源：CNBC</blockquote> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.<blockquote>总体而言，这些都是该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面的优势的因素之一。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数人或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，公司的计划扩张将继续增强其物流网络并保持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista<blockquote>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</blockquote> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.<blockquote>我们预测了该公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，亚马逊的第三方商品销售总额预计将在过去5年的平均增长率为9%。此外，我们还预测，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的27.3%增长1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的60%至75%之间，低于AWS的80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率37%由于与占总销售额60%的销售成本相关的高成本。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额('b')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.6%<blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.5%<blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.4%<blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.0%<blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.9%<blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.5%<blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.9%<blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21%<blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11%<blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></td> <td>16%<blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊商城）GMV('c')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>103<blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></td> <td>130<blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></td> <td>160<blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></td> <td>200<blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></td> <td>295<blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></td> <td>353<blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></td> <td>443<blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></td> <td>553<blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>26.2%<blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>23.1%<blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.5%<blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.8%<blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.3%<blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>% Of Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>佔收入百分比（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.3%<blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>24.5%<blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.7%<blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.9%<blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.3%<blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.8%<blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>28.1%<blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9.9%<blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9.0%<blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>0.6%<blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.5%<blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.99<blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.88<blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>38.7%<blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> *C = A x B<blockquote>*C=A × B</blockquote> *E = C x D<blockquote>*E=C x D</blockquote> Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth<blockquote>AWS按数据量增长增长</blockquote> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.<blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有Netflix(NFLX)、Verizon(VZ)、Capital One(COF)、麦当劳(MCD)等著名大客户。2020年AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，占据云基础设施市场31.8%的市场份额。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已发展成为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软(MSFT)和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.<blockquote>到2025年，全球数据量将增长23%，这支撑了云基础设施市场的快速增长，因为随着数据分析、5G和物联网的兴起，世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.<blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长基于到2025年数据量以23%的CAGR增长，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>*A=B x C资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.<blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS，AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，例如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，以构建基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用区，并计划再推出15个可用区来支持其云增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Canalys、Khaveen投资</blockquote> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.<blockquote>总而言之，我们基于市场份额预测假设来预测AWS的收入增长，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢削弱，但在利用AWS的稳固大客户关系的支持下仍保持其市场领先地位。根据到2023年30.7%的市场份额预测，我们预计AWS收入将增长至815亿美元。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>AWS Forecasts<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>AWS预测</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Market Share<blockquote><tr><td>AWS市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>32.6%<blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.3%<blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.8%<blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.0%<blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>30.7%<blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><tr><td>AWS收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.<blockquote>虽然AWS仅占其总收入的11%，但与其他公司部门的2.8%相比，其29%的高利润率使AWS在2020年占营业收入的59%，这凸显了AWS对其利润的重要性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk<blockquote>反垄断和数据隐私罚款风险</blockquote> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.<blockquote>民主党的报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家那里获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为40%。由于卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取额外费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，由众议院议员组成的两党小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司在一系列广泛的反垄断改革下对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.<blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊遭受了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临8.88亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反了欧盟的通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR允许罚款高达亚马逊收入的4%，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊2020年213亿美元收入的4.2%。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.<blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其利润率不断上升，因为由于其利润率更高的云业务的卓越增长，其净利润率也有所上升。AWS部门的营业利润率高达29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为2.8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.<blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有良好且强大的现金产生能力，过去5年的平均自由现金流利润率为3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购Whole Foods，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于利润率的上升，因为其利润更高的AWS业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.<blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其偿还债务的强大能力。2020年其净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着AWS的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去5年中从32倍稳步上升。</blockquote> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.<blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了DCF估值，因为该公司过去拥有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到的行业平均EV/EBITDA为27.64倍，如下表所示。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Company<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>公司</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>EV/EBITDA<blockquote><td>EV/EBITDA</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>28.57x<blockquote><td>28.57 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Alibaba (BABA)<blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（父亲）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21.14x<blockquote><td>21.14 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Microsoft<blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.89x<blockquote><td>25.89 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Google<blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.46x<blockquote><td>22.46 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Average<blockquote><tr><td>均值</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>24.52x<blockquote><td>24.52 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: SeekingAlpha<blockquote>来源：SeekingAlpha</blockquote> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.<blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS和其他的收入细分总结如下。网上商店预测源自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售额增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场中的第三方卖家GMV份额，并假设其从佣金和相关费用中获得%的收入。基于不断增长的数据量预测，AWS收入来自云市场增长。其他细分市场基于其平均3年增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，并从2027年的12.3%逐步下调，到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务和云计算市场将更加成熟。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Online stores<blockquote><tr><td>在线商店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Physical stores<blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>17.22<blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.19<blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></td> <td>16.23<blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.40<blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></td> <td>18.55<blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.38<blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>196.9%<blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-0.2%<blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-5.6%<blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Subscription services<blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>14.17<blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.21<blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.21<blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.67<blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.68<blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></td> <td>65.58<blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.6%<blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS<blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Other<blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>10.11<blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.09<blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.45<blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.27<blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.60<blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.48<blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>117.4%<blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.4%<blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>52.2%<blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total<blockquote><tr><td>总的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>232.9<blockquote><td>232.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.53<blockquote><td>280.53</td></blockquote></td> <td>386.07<blockquote><td>386.07</td></blockquote></td> <td>447.0<blockquote><td>447.0</td></blockquote></td> <td>545.9<blockquote><td>545.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>669.1<blockquote><td>669.1</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>总增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>30.9%<blockquote><td>30.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.5%<blockquote><td>20.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.6%<blockquote><td>37.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.8%<blockquote><td>15.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.1%<blockquote><td>22.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.6%<blockquote><td>22.6%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.<blockquote>基于12.7%的贴现率（公司的WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为36.9%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：卡文投资</blockquote> Verdict<blockquote>裁决</blockquote> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.<blockquote>总之，我们分析了该公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和AWS。虽然加速增长最终结束，但作为电子商务领域成熟且占主导地位的市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为转向电子商务，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比预计将继续上升，预计到2023年将达到22%。该公司的Prime会员为其提供了大约占美国人口一半的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和运输网络，亚马逊FBA在其在线市场上看到第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户有着密切的关系，管理层也不断致力于满足该细分市场不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预计2021年增长正常化，但我们认为其前景继续受到电子商务和云计算市场不断增长的提振，并将我们的增长率预测修正为2021年的15.8%，随后修正为2020年的22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为购买目标价格为$4,363.96.</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-09-08 11:34\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li> <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li> <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li> <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年收入增长超出我们预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍有望从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用DCF分析修改了估值，从3,358.73美元获得了4,303.18美元的新目标价。</li></ul>4kodiak/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</blockquote> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.<blockquote>自我们上次报道以来，亚马逊公司(AMZN)的股价已上涨26%，超出了我们24.5%的收入增长预期，并在2020年底上涨了37.6%，其在线零售业务增长了40%，达到近2000亿美元，第三方服务800亿美元。在本次分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和AWS。</blockquote> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.<blockquote>尽管第二季度网上商店销售额增长疲软13%，第三季度同比指引中点疲软13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力。亚马逊已确立市场地位的在线零售。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到2023年，电子商务的份额将从2020年的18%达到22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、作为忠实客户的庞大Prime会员基础以及坚实的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，正如其与第三方卖家的电子商务市场的崛起所证明的那样。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，持续致力于增长并以不断增长的数据量为基础。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth<blockquote>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</blockquote> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.<blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，加速了向电子商务的采用。然而，尽管2021年第二季度在线商店增长同比放缓13%，而第一季度为41%，但我们相信该公司将继续受益于电子商务采用率不断上升的长期推动力。</blockquote> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.<blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向在线购买，电子商务销售额的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将反弹7.2%。因此，2021年电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%实现正常化增长，渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = C x A<blockquote>*B=C x A</blockquote> Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.<blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争优势。更具体地说，很难在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上赢得公司的支持。显然，该公司的Prime会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司具有强大的吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也推动消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Backlinko<blockquote>资料来源：Backlinko</blockquote> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>除了Prime会员之外，该公司还能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，自2017年以来新增卖家330万人，即每天3,718人。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已确立了自己作为市场主导者的地位，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于第二接近的竞争对手。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Marketing Charts<blockquote>资料来源：营销图表</blockquote> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>如下表所示，其在不同产品类别和市场中的市场领导地位相当广泛。例如，其消费品和消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务总销售额的50.2%，占零售总额的26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: eMarketer<blockquote>资料来源：eMarketer</blockquote> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.<blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌(GOOG)和苹果(AAPL)，并继续通过新一代产品和软件更新来开发该产品。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据Echo产品系列103美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为39.4亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.<blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的不断增长，我们预计这一产品广度将继续扩大，并通过产品多样性为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.<blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有成熟的客户群和忠诚的Prime会员生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛的市场领导地位和广泛的产品广度的庞大卖家基础，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店增长是基于我们对其市场份额的预期（基于全球电子商务销售额的5年平均值）为4.5%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>零售销售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>16.2%<blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.9%<blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.3%<blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11.5%<blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.4%<blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.8%<blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.0%<blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入('d')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>91.43<blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></td> <td>108.35<blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>18.5%<blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额('e')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.0%<blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.1%<blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.2%<blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.6%<blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = A x C<blockquote>*B=A x C</blockquote> *D = B x E<blockquote>*D=B x E</blockquote> Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The Rise of Third-party Seller Services<blockquote>第三方卖家服务的兴起</blockquote> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.<blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和运输业务，这已成为一条难以逾越的护城河，很少有其他公司拥有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要送货提供商合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供的计划使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单。</blockquote> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.<blockquote>通过亚马逊物流（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的运营中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金以及相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、货件跟踪和报告。</blockquote> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.<blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更大的灵活性和控制力、更强大的品牌影响力和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的比例不断上升，达到总销售额的62%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: FourWeekMBA<blockquote>资料来源：FourWeekMBA</blockquote> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.<blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和运输网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和UPS竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其交付网络以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国运送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: WebFX<blockquote>来源：WebFX</blockquote> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.<blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，即将于2021年在密苏里州开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输大型客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020年，该公司宣布了7个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州600,000平方英尺的设施、田纳西州855,000平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州625,000平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CNBC<blockquote>资料来源：CNBC</blockquote> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.<blockquote>总体而言，这些都是该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面的优势的因素之一。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数人或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，公司的计划扩张将继续增强其物流网络并保持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista<blockquote>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</blockquote> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.<blockquote>我们预测了该公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，亚马逊的第三方商品销售总额预计将在过去5年的平均增长率为9%。此外，我们还预测，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的27.3%增长1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的60%至75%之间，低于AWS的80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率37%由于与占总销售额60%的销售成本相关的高成本。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额('b')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.6%<blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.5%<blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.4%<blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.0%<blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.9%<blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.5%<blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.9%<blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21%<blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11%<blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></td> <td>16%<blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊商城）GMV('c')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>103<blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></td> <td>130<blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></td> <td>160<blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></td> <td>200<blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></td> <td>295<blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></td> <td>353<blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></td> <td>443<blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></td> <td>553<blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>26.2%<blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>23.1%<blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.5%<blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.8%<blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.3%<blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>% Of Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>佔收入百分比（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.3%<blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>24.5%<blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.7%<blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.9%<blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.3%<blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.8%<blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>28.1%<blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9.9%<blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9.0%<blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>0.6%<blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.5%<blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.99<blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.88<blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>38.7%<blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> *C = A x B<blockquote>*C=A × B</blockquote> *E = C x D<blockquote>*E=C x D</blockquote> Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth<blockquote>AWS按数据量增长增长</blockquote> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.<blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有Netflix(NFLX)、Verizon(VZ)、Capital One(COF)、麦当劳(MCD)等著名大客户。2020年AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，占据云基础设施市场31.8%的市场份额。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已发展成为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软(MSFT)和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.<blockquote>到2025年，全球数据量将增长23%，这支撑了云基础设施市场的快速增长，因为随着数据分析、5G和物联网的兴起，世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.<blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长基于到2025年数据量以23%的CAGR增长，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>*A=B x C资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.<blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS，AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，例如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，以构建基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用区，并计划再推出15个可用区来支持其云增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Canalys、Khaveen投资</blockquote> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.<blockquote>总而言之，我们基于市场份额预测假设来预测AWS的收入增长，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢削弱，但在利用AWS的稳固大客户关系的支持下仍保持其市场领先地位。根据到2023年30.7%的市场份额预测，我们预计AWS收入将增长至815亿美元。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>AWS Forecasts<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>AWS预测</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Market Share<blockquote><tr><td>AWS市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>32.6%<blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.3%<blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.8%<blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.0%<blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>30.7%<blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><tr><td>AWS收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.<blockquote>虽然AWS仅占其总收入的11%，但与其他公司部门的2.8%相比，其29%的高利润率使AWS在2020年占营业收入的59%，这凸显了AWS对其利润的重要性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk<blockquote>反垄断和数据隐私罚款风险</blockquote> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.<blockquote>民主党的报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家那里获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为40%。由于卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取额外费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，由众议院议员组成的两党小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司在一系列广泛的反垄断改革下对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.<blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊遭受了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临8.88亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反了欧盟的通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR允许罚款高达亚马逊收入的4%，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊2020年213亿美元收入的4.2%。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.<blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其利润率不断上升，因为由于其利润率更高的云业务的卓越增长，其净利润率也有所上升。AWS部门的营业利润率高达29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为2.8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.<blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有良好且强大的现金产生能力，过去5年的平均自由现金流利润率为3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购Whole Foods，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于利润率的上升，因为其利润更高的AWS业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.<blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其偿还债务的强大能力。2020年其净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着AWS的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去5年中从32倍稳步上升。</blockquote> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.<blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了DCF估值，因为该公司过去拥有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到的行业平均EV/EBITDA为27.64倍，如下表所示。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Company<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>公司</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>EV/EBITDA<blockquote><td>EV/EBITDA</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>28.57x<blockquote><td>28.57 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Alibaba (BABA)<blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（父亲）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21.14x<blockquote><td>21.14 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Microsoft<blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.89x<blockquote><td>25.89 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Google<blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.46x<blockquote><td>22.46 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Average<blockquote><tr><td>均值</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>24.52x<blockquote><td>24.52 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: SeekingAlpha<blockquote>来源：SeekingAlpha</blockquote> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.<blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS和其他的收入细分总结如下。网上商店预测源自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售额增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场中的第三方卖家GMV份额，并假设其从佣金和相关费用中获得%的收入。基于不断增长的数据量预测，AWS收入来自云市场增长。其他细分市场基于其平均3年增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，并从2027年的12.3%逐步下调，到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务和云计算市场将更加成熟。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Online stores<blockquote><tr><td>在线商店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Physical stores<blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>17.22<blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.19<blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></td> <td>16.23<blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.40<blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></td> <td>18.55<blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.38<blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>196.9%<blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-0.2%<blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-5.6%<blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Subscription services<blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>14.17<blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.21<blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.21<blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.67<blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.68<blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></td> <td>65.58<blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.6%<blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS<blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Other<blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>10.11<blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.09<blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.45<blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.27<blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.60<blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.48<blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>117.4%<blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.4%<blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>52.2%<blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total<blockquote><tr><td>总的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>232.9<blockquote><td>232.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.53<blockquote><td>280.53</td></blockquote></td> <td>386.07<blockquote><td>386.07</td></blockquote></td> <td>447.0<blockquote><td>447.0</td></blockquote></td> <td>545.9<blockquote><td>545.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>669.1<blockquote><td>669.1</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>总增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>30.9%<blockquote><td>30.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.5%<blockquote><td>20.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.6%<blockquote><td>37.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.8%<blockquote><td>15.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.1%<blockquote><td>22.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.6%<blockquote><td>22.6%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.<blockquote>基于12.7%的贴现率（公司的WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为36.9%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：卡文投资</blockquote> Verdict<blockquote>裁决</blockquote> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.<blockquote>总之，我们分析了该公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和AWS。虽然加速增长最终结束，但作为电子商务领域成熟且占主导地位的市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为转向电子商务，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比预计将继续上升，预计到2023年将达到22%。该公司的Prime会员为其提供了大约占美国人口一半的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和运输网络，亚马逊FBA在其在线市场上看到第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户有着密切的关系，管理层也不断致力于满足该细分市场不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预计2021年增长正常化，但我们认为其前景继续受到电子商务和云计算市场不断增长的提振，并将我们的增长率预测修正为2021年的15.8%，随后修正为2020年的22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为购买目标价格为$4,363.96.</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143120804","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.\nWhile growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.\nAWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.\nWe revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.\n\n4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nSince our previous coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.\nDespite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3 guidance of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.\nSource: Amazon\nE-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth\nAmazon's online store sales have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.\nAccording to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to reach 22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.\n\n\n\nGlobal E-Commerce Market ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Global Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\n\n* B = C x A\nSource: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments\nAmazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.\nSource: Backlinko\nIn addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently attract sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.\nSource: Marketing Charts\nIts market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer & consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel & accessories, books music & video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.\nSource: eMarketer\nAmong the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having purchased electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker units and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average price of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.\nAll in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln products excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.\nThus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.\n\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\nGrowth %\n16.2%\n20.9%\n17.3%\n11.5%\n32.4%\n2.8%\n8.1%\n10.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')\n91.43\n108.35\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n18.5%\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')\n5.0%\n4.5%\n4.1%\n4.2%\n4.6%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n\n\n\n* B = A x C\n*D = B x E\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThe Rise of Third-party Seller Services\nAnother major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.\nWith Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.\nSelling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately provides more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising share of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.\nSource: FourWeekMBA\nThe chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it enhances its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business delivered 1.9 bln packages in the US.\nSource: WebFX\nMoreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming opening of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it announced plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.\nSource: CNBC\nOverall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has free Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.\nSource: Statista\nWe forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which represents 60% of its total sales.\n\n\n\nThird-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nGlobal Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Third Party Market Share ('b')\n5.6%\n5.5%\n5.4%\n6.0%\n6.9%\n7.5%\n8.1%\n8.9%\n\n\nGrowth %\n21%\n-2%\n-2%\n11%\n16%\n9%\n9%\n9%\n\n\nThird-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')\n103\n130\n160\n200\n295\n353\n443\n553\n\n\nGrowth %\n26.2%\n23.1%\n25.0%\n47.5%\n19.8%\n25.3%\n25.0%\n\n\n% Of Revenues ('d')\n22.3%\n24.5%\n26.7%\n26.9%\n27.3%\n27.6%\n27.8%\n28.1%\n\n\nGrowth %\n9.9%\n9.0%\n0.6%\n1.5%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services revenues ('e')\n22.99\n31.88\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n38.7%\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\n\n*C = A x B\n*E = C x D\nSource: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments\nAWS Growth by Data Volume Growth\nAnother key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.\nThe rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nWe projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23% CAGR through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.\n* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently announced a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.\nSource: Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nAll in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.\n\n\n\nAWS Forecasts\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nAWS Market Share\n32.6%\n32.3%\n31.8%\n31.2%\n31.0%\n30.7%\n\n\nAWS Revenues ($ bln)\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nWhile AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.\nSource: Amazon\nAntimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk\nAmazon has been involved in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.\nWhereas in the European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.\nValuation\nThe company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nMore importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the acquisition of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nThe company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.\nTo value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.\n\n\n\nCompany\nEV/EBITDA\n\n\nAmazon\n28.57x\n\n\nAlibaba (BABA)\n21.14x\n\n\nMicrosoft\n25.89x\n\n\nGoogle\n22.46x\n\n\nAverage\n24.52x\n\n\n\nSource: SeekingAlpha\nThe revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.\n\n\n\nAmazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nOnline stores\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPhysical stores\n17.22\n17.19\n16.23\n17.40\n18.55\n19.38\n\n\nGrowth %\n196.9%\n-0.2%\n-5.6%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\nSubscription services\n14.17\n19.21\n25.21\n34.67\n47.68\n65.58\n\n\nGrowth %\n45.8%\n35.6%\n31.2%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n\n\nAWS\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\nOther\n10.11\n14.09\n21.45\n31.27\n45.60\n66.48\n\n\nGrowth %\n117.4%\n39.4%\n52.2%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n\n\nTotal\n232.9\n280.53\n386.07\n447.0\n545.9\n669.1\n\n\nTotal Growth %\n30.9%\n20.5%\n37.6%\n15.8%\n22.1%\n22.6%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nBased on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.\nSource: Khaveen Investments\nVerdict\nIn conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":880475893,"gmtCreate":1631077215912,"gmtModify":1631889833778,"author":{"id":"4087986020499840","authorId":"4087986020499840","name":"BerryNat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27333e490249edd9b1054f0311c8584c","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4087986020499840","authorIdStr":"4087986020499840"},"htmlText":"Thought they were planning to open a megastore?","listText":"Thought they were planning to open a megastore?","text":"Thought they were planning to open a megastore?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880475893","repostId":1143120804,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143120804","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631072080,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143120804?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 11:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143120804","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth ra","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li> <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li> <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li> <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年收入增长超出我们预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍有望从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用DCF分析修改了估值，从3,358.73美元获得了4,303.18美元的新目标价。</li></ul>4kodiak/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</blockquote> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.<blockquote>自我们上次报道以来，亚马逊公司(AMZN)的股价已上涨26%，超出了我们24.5%的收入增长预期，并在2020年底上涨了37.6%，其在线零售业务增长了40%，达到近2000亿美元，第三方服务800亿美元。在本次分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和AWS。</blockquote> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.<blockquote>尽管第二季度网上商店销售额增长疲软13%，第三季度同比指引中点疲软13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力。亚马逊已确立市场地位的在线零售。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到2023年，电子商务的份额将从2020年的18%达到22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、作为忠实客户的庞大Prime会员基础以及坚实的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，正如其与第三方卖家的电子商务市场的崛起所证明的那样。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，持续致力于增长并以不断增长的数据量为基础。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth<blockquote>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</blockquote> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.<blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，加速了向电子商务的采用。然而，尽管2021年第二季度在线商店增长同比放缓13%，而第一季度为41%，但我们相信该公司将继续受益于电子商务采用率不断上升的长期推动力。</blockquote> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.<blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向在线购买，电子商务销售额的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将反弹7.2%。因此，2021年电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%实现正常化增长，渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = C x A<blockquote>*B=C x A</blockquote> Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.<blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争优势。更具体地说，很难在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上赢得公司的支持。显然，该公司的Prime会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司具有强大的吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也推动消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Backlinko<blockquote>资料来源：Backlinko</blockquote> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>除了Prime会员之外，该公司还能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，自2017年以来新增卖家330万人，即每天3,718人。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已确立了自己作为市场主导者的地位，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于第二接近的竞争对手。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Marketing Charts<blockquote>资料来源：营销图表</blockquote> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>如下表所示，其在不同产品类别和市场中的市场领导地位相当广泛。例如，其消费品和消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务总销售额的50.2%，占零售总额的26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: eMarketer<blockquote>资料来源：eMarketer</blockquote> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.<blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌(GOOG)和苹果(AAPL)，并继续通过新一代产品和软件更新来开发该产品。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据Echo产品系列103美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为39.4亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.<blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的不断增长，我们预计这一产品广度将继续扩大，并通过产品多样性为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.<blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有成熟的客户群和忠诚的Prime会员生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛的市场领导地位和广泛的产品广度的庞大卖家基础，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店增长是基于我们对其市场份额的预期（基于全球电子商务销售额的5年平均值）为4.5%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>零售销售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>16.2%<blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.9%<blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.3%<blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11.5%<blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.4%<blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.8%<blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.0%<blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入('d')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>91.43<blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></td> <td>108.35<blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>18.5%<blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额('e')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.0%<blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.1%<blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.2%<blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.6%<blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = A x C<blockquote>*B=A x C</blockquote> *D = B x E<blockquote>*D=B x E</blockquote> Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The Rise of Third-party Seller Services<blockquote>第三方卖家服务的兴起</blockquote> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.<blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和运输业务，这已成为一条难以逾越的护城河，很少有其他公司拥有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要送货提供商合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供的计划使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单。</blockquote> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.<blockquote>通过亚马逊物流（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的运营中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金以及相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、货件跟踪和报告。</blockquote> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.<blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更大的灵活性和控制力、更强大的品牌影响力和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的比例不断上升，达到总销售额的62%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: FourWeekMBA<blockquote>资料来源：FourWeekMBA</blockquote> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.<blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和运输网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和UPS竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其交付网络以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国运送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: WebFX<blockquote>来源：WebFX</blockquote> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.<blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，即将于2021年在密苏里州开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输大型客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020年，该公司宣布了7个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州600,000平方英尺的设施、田纳西州855,000平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州625,000平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CNBC<blockquote>资料来源：CNBC</blockquote> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.<blockquote>总体而言，这些都是该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面的优势的因素之一。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数人或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，公司的计划扩张将继续增强其物流网络并保持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista<blockquote>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</blockquote> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.<blockquote>我们预测了该公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，亚马逊的第三方商品销售总额预计将在过去5年的平均增长率为9%。此外，我们还预测，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的27.3%增长1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的60%至75%之间，低于AWS的80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率37%由于与占总销售额60%的销售成本相关的高成本。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额('b')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.6%<blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.5%<blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.4%<blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.0%<blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.9%<blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.5%<blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.9%<blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21%<blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11%<blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></td> <td>16%<blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊商城）GMV('c')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>103<blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></td> <td>130<blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></td> <td>160<blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></td> <td>200<blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></td> <td>295<blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></td> <td>353<blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></td> <td>443<blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></td> <td>553<blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>26.2%<blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>23.1%<blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.5%<blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.8%<blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.3%<blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>% Of Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>佔收入百分比（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.3%<blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>24.5%<blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.7%<blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.9%<blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.3%<blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.8%<blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>28.1%<blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9.9%<blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9.0%<blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>0.6%<blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.5%<blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.99<blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.88<blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>38.7%<blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> *C = A x B<blockquote>*C=A × B</blockquote> *E = C x D<blockquote>*E=C x D</blockquote> Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth<blockquote>AWS按数据量增长增长</blockquote> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.<blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有Netflix(NFLX)、Verizon(VZ)、Capital One(COF)、麦当劳(MCD)等著名大客户。2020年AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，占据云基础设施市场31.8%的市场份额。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已发展成为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软(MSFT)和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.<blockquote>到2025年，全球数据量将增长23%，这支撑了云基础设施市场的快速增长，因为随着数据分析、5G和物联网的兴起，世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.<blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长基于到2025年数据量以23%的CAGR增长，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>*A=B x C资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.<blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS，AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，例如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，以构建基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用区，并计划再推出15个可用区来支持其云增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Canalys、Khaveen投资</blockquote> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.<blockquote>总而言之，我们基于市场份额预测假设来预测AWS的收入增长，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢削弱，但在利用AWS的稳固大客户关系的支持下仍保持其市场领先地位。根据到2023年30.7%的市场份额预测，我们预计AWS收入将增长至815亿美元。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>AWS Forecasts<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>AWS预测</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Market Share<blockquote><tr><td>AWS市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>32.6%<blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.3%<blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.8%<blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.0%<blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>30.7%<blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><tr><td>AWS收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.<blockquote>虽然AWS仅占其总收入的11%，但与其他公司部门的2.8%相比，其29%的高利润率使AWS在2020年占营业收入的59%，这凸显了AWS对其利润的重要性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk<blockquote>反垄断和数据隐私罚款风险</blockquote> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.<blockquote>民主党的报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家那里获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为40%。由于卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取额外费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，由众议院议员组成的两党小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司在一系列广泛的反垄断改革下对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.<blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊遭受了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临8.88亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反了欧盟的通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR允许罚款高达亚马逊收入的4%，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊2020年213亿美元收入的4.2%。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.<blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其利润率不断上升，因为由于其利润率更高的云业务的卓越增长，其净利润率也有所上升。AWS部门的营业利润率高达29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为2.8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.<blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有良好且强大的现金产生能力，过去5年的平均自由现金流利润率为3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购Whole Foods，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于利润率的上升，因为其利润更高的AWS业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.<blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其偿还债务的强大能力。2020年其净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着AWS的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去5年中从32倍稳步上升。</blockquote> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.<blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了DCF估值，因为该公司过去拥有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到的行业平均EV/EBITDA为27.64倍，如下表所示。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Company<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>公司</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>EV/EBITDA<blockquote><td>EV/EBITDA</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>28.57x<blockquote><td>28.57 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Alibaba (BABA)<blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（父亲）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21.14x<blockquote><td>21.14 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Microsoft<blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.89x<blockquote><td>25.89 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Google<blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.46x<blockquote><td>22.46 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Average<blockquote><tr><td>均值</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>24.52x<blockquote><td>24.52 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: SeekingAlpha<blockquote>来源：SeekingAlpha</blockquote> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.<blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS和其他的收入细分总结如下。网上商店预测源自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售额增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场中的第三方卖家GMV份额，并假设其从佣金和相关费用中获得%的收入。基于不断增长的数据量预测，AWS收入来自云市场增长。其他细分市场基于其平均3年增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，并从2027年的12.3%逐步下调，到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务和云计算市场将更加成熟。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Online stores<blockquote><tr><td>在线商店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Physical stores<blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>17.22<blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.19<blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></td> <td>16.23<blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.40<blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></td> <td>18.55<blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.38<blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>196.9%<blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-0.2%<blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-5.6%<blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Subscription services<blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>14.17<blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.21<blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.21<blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.67<blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.68<blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></td> <td>65.58<blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.6%<blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS<blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Other<blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>10.11<blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.09<blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.45<blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.27<blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.60<blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.48<blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>117.4%<blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.4%<blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>52.2%<blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total<blockquote><tr><td>总的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>232.9<blockquote><td>232.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.53<blockquote><td>280.53</td></blockquote></td> <td>386.07<blockquote><td>386.07</td></blockquote></td> <td>447.0<blockquote><td>447.0</td></blockquote></td> <td>545.9<blockquote><td>545.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>669.1<blockquote><td>669.1</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>总增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>30.9%<blockquote><td>30.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.5%<blockquote><td>20.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.6%<blockquote><td>37.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.8%<blockquote><td>15.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.1%<blockquote><td>22.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.6%<blockquote><td>22.6%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.<blockquote>基于12.7%的贴现率（公司的WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为36.9%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：卡文投资</blockquote> Verdict<blockquote>裁决</blockquote> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.<blockquote>总之，我们分析了该公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和AWS。虽然加速增长最终结束，但作为电子商务领域成熟且占主导地位的市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为转向电子商务，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比预计将继续上升，预计到2023年将达到22%。该公司的Prime会员为其提供了大约占美国人口一半的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和运输网络，亚马逊FBA在其在线市场上看到第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户有着密切的关系，管理层也不断致力于满足该细分市场不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预计2021年增长正常化，但我们认为其前景继续受到电子商务和云计算市场不断增长的提振，并将我们的增长率预测修正为2021年的15.8%，随后修正为2020年的22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为购买目标价格为$4,363.96.</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-09-08 11:34\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li> <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li> <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li> <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年收入增长超出我们预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍有望从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用DCF分析修改了估值，从3,358.73美元获得了4,303.18美元的新目标价。</li></ul>4kodiak/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</blockquote> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.<blockquote>自我们上次报道以来，亚马逊公司(AMZN)的股价已上涨26%，超出了我们24.5%的收入增长预期，并在2020年底上涨了37.6%，其在线零售业务增长了40%，达到近2000亿美元，第三方服务800亿美元。在本次分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和AWS。</blockquote> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.<blockquote>尽管第二季度网上商店销售额增长疲软13%，第三季度同比指引中点疲软13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力。亚马逊已确立市场地位的在线零售。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到2023年，电子商务的份额将从2020年的18%达到22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、作为忠实客户的庞大Prime会员基础以及坚实的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，正如其与第三方卖家的电子商务市场的崛起所证明的那样。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，持续致力于增长并以不断增长的数据量为基础。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth<blockquote>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</blockquote> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.<blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，加速了向电子商务的采用。然而，尽管2021年第二季度在线商店增长同比放缓13%，而第一季度为41%，但我们相信该公司将继续受益于电子商务采用率不断上升的长期推动力。</blockquote> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.<blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向在线购买，电子商务销售额的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将反弹7.2%。因此，2021年电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%实现正常化增长，渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = C x A<blockquote>*B=C x A</blockquote> Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.<blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争优势。更具体地说，很难在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上赢得公司的支持。显然，该公司的Prime会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司具有强大的吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也推动消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Backlinko<blockquote>资料来源：Backlinko</blockquote> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>除了Prime会员之外，该公司还能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，自2017年以来新增卖家330万人，即每天3,718人。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已确立了自己作为市场主导者的地位，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于第二接近的竞争对手。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Marketing Charts<blockquote>资料来源：营销图表</blockquote> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>如下表所示，其在不同产品类别和市场中的市场领导地位相当广泛。例如，其消费品和消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务总销售额的50.2%，占零售总额的26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: eMarketer<blockquote>资料来源：eMarketer</blockquote> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.<blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌(GOOG)和苹果(AAPL)，并继续通过新一代产品和软件更新来开发该产品。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据Echo产品系列103美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为39.4亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.<blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的不断增长，我们预计这一产品广度将继续扩大，并通过产品多样性为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.<blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有成熟的客户群和忠诚的Prime会员生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛的市场领导地位和广泛的产品广度的庞大卖家基础，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店增长是基于我们对其市场份额的预期（基于全球电子商务销售额的5年平均值）为4.5%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>零售销售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>16.2%<blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.9%<blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.3%<blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11.5%<blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.4%<blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.8%<blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.0%<blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入('d')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>91.43<blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></td> <td>108.35<blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>18.5%<blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额('e')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.0%<blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.1%<blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.2%<blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.6%<blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = A x C<blockquote>*B=A x C</blockquote> *D = B x E<blockquote>*D=B x E</blockquote> Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The Rise of Third-party Seller Services<blockquote>第三方卖家服务的兴起</blockquote> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.<blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和运输业务，这已成为一条难以逾越的护城河，很少有其他公司拥有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要送货提供商合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供的计划使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单。</blockquote> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.<blockquote>通过亚马逊物流（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的运营中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金以及相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、货件跟踪和报告。</blockquote> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.<blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更大的灵活性和控制力、更强大的品牌影响力和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的比例不断上升，达到总销售额的62%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: FourWeekMBA<blockquote>资料来源：FourWeekMBA</blockquote> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.<blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和运输网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和UPS竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其交付网络以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国运送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: WebFX<blockquote>来源：WebFX</blockquote> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.<blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，即将于2021年在密苏里州开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输大型客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020年，该公司宣布了7个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州600,000平方英尺的设施、田纳西州855,000平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州625,000平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CNBC<blockquote>资料来源：CNBC</blockquote> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.<blockquote>总体而言，这些都是该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面的优势的因素之一。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数人或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，公司的计划扩张将继续增强其物流网络并保持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista<blockquote>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</blockquote> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.<blockquote>我们预测了该公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，亚马逊的第三方商品销售总额预计将在过去5年的平均增长率为9%。此外，我们还预测，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的27.3%增长1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的60%至75%之间，低于AWS的80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率37%由于与占总销售额60%的销售成本相关的高成本。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额('b')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.6%<blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.5%<blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.4%<blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.0%<blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.9%<blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.5%<blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.9%<blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21%<blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11%<blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></td> <td>16%<blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊商城）GMV('c')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>103<blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></td> <td>130<blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></td> <td>160<blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></td> <td>200<blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></td> <td>295<blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></td> <td>353<blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></td> <td>443<blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></td> <td>553<blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>26.2%<blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>23.1%<blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.5%<blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.8%<blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.3%<blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>% Of Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>佔收入百分比（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.3%<blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>24.5%<blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.7%<blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.9%<blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.3%<blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.8%<blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>28.1%<blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9.9%<blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9.0%<blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>0.6%<blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.5%<blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.99<blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.88<blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>38.7%<blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> *C = A x B<blockquote>*C=A × B</blockquote> *E = C x D<blockquote>*E=C x D</blockquote> Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth<blockquote>AWS按数据量增长增长</blockquote> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.<blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有Netflix(NFLX)、Verizon(VZ)、Capital One(COF)、麦当劳(MCD)等著名大客户。2020年AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，占据云基础设施市场31.8%的市场份额。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已发展成为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软(MSFT)和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.<blockquote>到2025年，全球数据量将增长23%，这支撑了云基础设施市场的快速增长，因为随着数据分析、5G和物联网的兴起，世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.<blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长基于到2025年数据量以23%的CAGR增长，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>*A=B x C资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.<blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS，AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，例如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，以构建基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用区，并计划再推出15个可用区来支持其云增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Canalys、Khaveen投资</blockquote> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.<blockquote>总而言之，我们基于市场份额预测假设来预测AWS的收入增长，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢削弱，但在利用AWS的稳固大客户关系的支持下仍保持其市场领先地位。根据到2023年30.7%的市场份额预测，我们预计AWS收入将增长至815亿美元。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>AWS Forecasts<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>AWS预测</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Market Share<blockquote><tr><td>AWS市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>32.6%<blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.3%<blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.8%<blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.0%<blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>30.7%<blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><tr><td>AWS收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.<blockquote>虽然AWS仅占其总收入的11%，但与其他公司部门的2.8%相比，其29%的高利润率使AWS在2020年占营业收入的59%，这凸显了AWS对其利润的重要性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk<blockquote>反垄断和数据隐私罚款风险</blockquote> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.<blockquote>民主党的报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家那里获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为40%。由于卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取额外费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，由众议院议员组成的两党小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司在一系列广泛的反垄断改革下对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.<blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊遭受了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临8.88亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反了欧盟的通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR允许罚款高达亚马逊收入的4%，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊2020年213亿美元收入的4.2%。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.<blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其利润率不断上升，因为由于其利润率更高的云业务的卓越增长，其净利润率也有所上升。AWS部门的营业利润率高达29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为2.8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.<blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有良好且强大的现金产生能力，过去5年的平均自由现金流利润率为3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购Whole Foods，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于利润率的上升，因为其利润更高的AWS业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.<blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其偿还债务的强大能力。2020年其净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着AWS的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去5年中从32倍稳步上升。</blockquote> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.<blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了DCF估值，因为该公司过去拥有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到的行业平均EV/EBITDA为27.64倍，如下表所示。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Company<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>公司</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>EV/EBITDA<blockquote><td>EV/EBITDA</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>28.57x<blockquote><td>28.57 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Alibaba (BABA)<blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（父亲）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21.14x<blockquote><td>21.14 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Microsoft<blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.89x<blockquote><td>25.89 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Google<blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.46x<blockquote><td>22.46 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Average<blockquote><tr><td>均值</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>24.52x<blockquote><td>24.52 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: SeekingAlpha<blockquote>来源：SeekingAlpha</blockquote> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.<blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS和其他的收入细分总结如下。网上商店预测源自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售额增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场中的第三方卖家GMV份额，并假设其从佣金和相关费用中获得%的收入。基于不断增长的数据量预测，AWS收入来自云市场增长。其他细分市场基于其平均3年增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，并从2027年的12.3%逐步下调，到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务和云计算市场将更加成熟。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Online stores<blockquote><tr><td>在线商店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Physical stores<blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>17.22<blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.19<blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></td> <td>16.23<blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.40<blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></td> <td>18.55<blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.38<blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>196.9%<blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-0.2%<blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-5.6%<blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Subscription services<blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>14.17<blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.21<blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.21<blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.67<blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.68<blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></td> <td>65.58<blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.6%<blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS<blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Other<blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>10.11<blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.09<blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.45<blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.27<blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.60<blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.48<blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>117.4%<blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.4%<blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>52.2%<blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total<blockquote><tr><td>总的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>232.9<blockquote><td>232.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.53<blockquote><td>280.53</td></blockquote></td> <td>386.07<blockquote><td>386.07</td></blockquote></td> <td>447.0<blockquote><td>447.0</td></blockquote></td> <td>545.9<blockquote><td>545.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>669.1<blockquote><td>669.1</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>总增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>30.9%<blockquote><td>30.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.5%<blockquote><td>20.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.6%<blockquote><td>37.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.8%<blockquote><td>15.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.1%<blockquote><td>22.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.6%<blockquote><td>22.6%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.<blockquote>基于12.7%的贴现率（公司的WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为36.9%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：卡文投资</blockquote> Verdict<blockquote>裁决</blockquote> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.<blockquote>总之，我们分析了该公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和AWS。虽然加速增长最终结束，但作为电子商务领域成熟且占主导地位的市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为转向电子商务，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比预计将继续上升，预计到2023年将达到22%。该公司的Prime会员为其提供了大约占美国人口一半的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和运输网络，亚马逊FBA在其在线市场上看到第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户有着密切的关系，管理层也不断致力于满足该细分市场不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预计2021年增长正常化，但我们认为其前景继续受到电子商务和云计算市场不断增长的提振，并将我们的增长率预测修正为2021年的15.8%，随后修正为2020年的22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为购买目标价格为$4,363.96.</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143120804","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.\nWhile growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.\nAWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.\nWe revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.\n\n4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nSince our previous coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.\nDespite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3 guidance of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.\nSource: Amazon\nE-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth\nAmazon's online store sales have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.\nAccording to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to reach 22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.\n\n\n\nGlobal E-Commerce Market ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Global Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\n\n* B = C x A\nSource: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments\nAmazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.\nSource: Backlinko\nIn addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently attract sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.\nSource: Marketing Charts\nIts market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer & consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel & accessories, books music & video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.\nSource: eMarketer\nAmong the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having purchased electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker units and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average price of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.\nAll in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln products excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.\nThus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.\n\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\nGrowth %\n16.2%\n20.9%\n17.3%\n11.5%\n32.4%\n2.8%\n8.1%\n10.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')\n91.43\n108.35\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n18.5%\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')\n5.0%\n4.5%\n4.1%\n4.2%\n4.6%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n\n\n\n* B = A x C\n*D = B x E\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThe Rise of Third-party Seller Services\nAnother major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.\nWith Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.\nSelling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately provides more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising share of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.\nSource: FourWeekMBA\nThe chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it enhances its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business delivered 1.9 bln packages in the US.\nSource: WebFX\nMoreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming opening of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it announced plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.\nSource: CNBC\nOverall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has free Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.\nSource: Statista\nWe forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which represents 60% of its total sales.\n\n\n\nThird-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nGlobal Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Third Party Market Share ('b')\n5.6%\n5.5%\n5.4%\n6.0%\n6.9%\n7.5%\n8.1%\n8.9%\n\n\nGrowth %\n21%\n-2%\n-2%\n11%\n16%\n9%\n9%\n9%\n\n\nThird-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')\n103\n130\n160\n200\n295\n353\n443\n553\n\n\nGrowth %\n26.2%\n23.1%\n25.0%\n47.5%\n19.8%\n25.3%\n25.0%\n\n\n% Of Revenues ('d')\n22.3%\n24.5%\n26.7%\n26.9%\n27.3%\n27.6%\n27.8%\n28.1%\n\n\nGrowth %\n9.9%\n9.0%\n0.6%\n1.5%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services revenues ('e')\n22.99\n31.88\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n38.7%\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\n\n*C = A x B\n*E = C x D\nSource: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments\nAWS Growth by Data Volume Growth\nAnother key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.\nThe rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nWe projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23% CAGR through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.\n* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently announced a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.\nSource: Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nAll in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.\n\n\n\nAWS Forecasts\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nAWS Market Share\n32.6%\n32.3%\n31.8%\n31.2%\n31.0%\n30.7%\n\n\nAWS Revenues ($ bln)\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nWhile AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.\nSource: Amazon\nAntimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk\nAmazon has been involved in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.\nWhereas in the European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.\nValuation\nThe company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nMore importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the acquisition of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nThe company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.\nTo value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.\n\n\n\nCompany\nEV/EBITDA\n\n\nAmazon\n28.57x\n\n\nAlibaba (BABA)\n21.14x\n\n\nMicrosoft\n25.89x\n\n\nGoogle\n22.46x\n\n\nAverage\n24.52x\n\n\n\nSource: SeekingAlpha\nThe revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.\n\n\n\nAmazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nOnline stores\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPhysical stores\n17.22\n17.19\n16.23\n17.40\n18.55\n19.38\n\n\nGrowth %\n196.9%\n-0.2%\n-5.6%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\nSubscription services\n14.17\n19.21\n25.21\n34.67\n47.68\n65.58\n\n\nGrowth %\n45.8%\n35.6%\n31.2%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n\n\nAWS\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\nOther\n10.11\n14.09\n21.45\n31.27\n45.60\n66.48\n\n\nGrowth %\n117.4%\n39.4%\n52.2%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n\n\nTotal\n232.9\n280.53\n386.07\n447.0\n545.9\n669.1\n\n\nTotal Growth %\n30.9%\n20.5%\n37.6%\n15.8%\n22.1%\n22.6%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nBased on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.\nSource: Khaveen Investments\nVerdict\nIn conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":880471352,"gmtCreate":1631076700576,"gmtModify":1631893585726,"author":{"id":"3581549237814895","authorId":"3581549237814895","name":"Theme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d589f20e0a3a44c380a2aacfda4272b","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581549237814895","authorIdStr":"3581549237814895"},"htmlText":"Wow… a whopping $4300 future value. Long Amazon!","listText":"Wow… a whopping $4300 future value. Long Amazon!","text":"Wow… a whopping $4300 future value. Long Amazon!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880471352","repostId":1143120804,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143120804","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631072080,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143120804?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 11:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143120804","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth ra","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li> <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li> <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li> <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年收入增长超出我们预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍有望从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用DCF分析修改了估值，从3,358.73美元获得了4,303.18美元的新目标价。</li></ul>4kodiak/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</blockquote> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.<blockquote>自我们上次报道以来，亚马逊公司(AMZN)的股价已上涨26%，超出了我们24.5%的收入增长预期，并在2020年底上涨了37.6%，其在线零售业务增长了40%，达到近2000亿美元，第三方服务800亿美元。在本次分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和AWS。</blockquote> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.<blockquote>尽管第二季度网上商店销售额增长疲软13%，第三季度同比指引中点疲软13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力。亚马逊已确立市场地位的在线零售。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到2023年，电子商务的份额将从2020年的18%达到22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、作为忠实客户的庞大Prime会员基础以及坚实的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，正如其与第三方卖家的电子商务市场的崛起所证明的那样。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，持续致力于增长并以不断增长的数据量为基础。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth<blockquote>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</blockquote> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.<blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，加速了向电子商务的采用。然而，尽管2021年第二季度在线商店增长同比放缓13%，而第一季度为41%，但我们相信该公司将继续受益于电子商务采用率不断上升的长期推动力。</blockquote> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.<blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向在线购买，电子商务销售额的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将反弹7.2%。因此，2021年电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%实现正常化增长，渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = C x A<blockquote>*B=C x A</blockquote> Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.<blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争优势。更具体地说，很难在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上赢得公司的支持。显然，该公司的Prime会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司具有强大的吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也推动消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Backlinko<blockquote>资料来源：Backlinko</blockquote> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>除了Prime会员之外，该公司还能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，自2017年以来新增卖家330万人，即每天3,718人。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已确立了自己作为市场主导者的地位，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于第二接近的竞争对手。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Marketing Charts<blockquote>资料来源：营销图表</blockquote> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>如下表所示，其在不同产品类别和市场中的市场领导地位相当广泛。例如，其消费品和消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务总销售额的50.2%，占零售总额的26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: eMarketer<blockquote>资料来源：eMarketer</blockquote> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.<blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌(GOOG)和苹果(AAPL)，并继续通过新一代产品和软件更新来开发该产品。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据Echo产品系列103美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为39.4亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.<blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的不断增长，我们预计这一产品广度将继续扩大，并通过产品多样性为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.<blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有成熟的客户群和忠诚的Prime会员生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛的市场领导地位和广泛的产品广度的庞大卖家基础，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店增长是基于我们对其市场份额的预期（基于全球电子商务销售额的5年平均值）为4.5%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>零售销售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>16.2%<blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.9%<blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.3%<blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11.5%<blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.4%<blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.8%<blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.0%<blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入('d')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>91.43<blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></td> <td>108.35<blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>18.5%<blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额('e')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.0%<blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.1%<blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.2%<blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.6%<blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = A x C<blockquote>*B=A x C</blockquote> *D = B x E<blockquote>*D=B x E</blockquote> Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The Rise of Third-party Seller Services<blockquote>第三方卖家服务的兴起</blockquote> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.<blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和运输业务，这已成为一条难以逾越的护城河，很少有其他公司拥有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要送货提供商合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供的计划使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单。</blockquote> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.<blockquote>通过亚马逊物流（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的运营中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金以及相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、货件跟踪和报告。</blockquote> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.<blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更大的灵活性和控制力、更强大的品牌影响力和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的比例不断上升，达到总销售额的62%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: FourWeekMBA<blockquote>资料来源：FourWeekMBA</blockquote> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.<blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和运输网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和UPS竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其交付网络以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国运送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: WebFX<blockquote>来源：WebFX</blockquote> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.<blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，即将于2021年在密苏里州开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输大型客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020年，该公司宣布了7个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州600,000平方英尺的设施、田纳西州855,000平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州625,000平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CNBC<blockquote>资料来源：CNBC</blockquote> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.<blockquote>总体而言，这些都是该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面的优势的因素之一。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数人或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，公司的计划扩张将继续增强其物流网络并保持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista<blockquote>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</blockquote> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.<blockquote>我们预测了该公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，亚马逊的第三方商品销售总额预计将在过去5年的平均增长率为9%。此外，我们还预测，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的27.3%增长1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的60%至75%之间，低于AWS的80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率37%由于与占总销售额60%的销售成本相关的高成本。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额('b')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.6%<blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.5%<blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.4%<blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.0%<blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.9%<blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.5%<blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.9%<blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21%<blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11%<blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></td> <td>16%<blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊商城）GMV('c')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>103<blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></td> <td>130<blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></td> <td>160<blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></td> <td>200<blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></td> <td>295<blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></td> <td>353<blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></td> <td>443<blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></td> <td>553<blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>26.2%<blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>23.1%<blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.5%<blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.8%<blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.3%<blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>% Of Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>佔收入百分比（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.3%<blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>24.5%<blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.7%<blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.9%<blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.3%<blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.8%<blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>28.1%<blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9.9%<blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9.0%<blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>0.6%<blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.5%<blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.99<blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.88<blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>38.7%<blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> *C = A x B<blockquote>*C=A × B</blockquote> *E = C x D<blockquote>*E=C x D</blockquote> Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth<blockquote>AWS按数据量增长增长</blockquote> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.<blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有Netflix(NFLX)、Verizon(VZ)、Capital One(COF)、麦当劳(MCD)等著名大客户。2020年AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，占据云基础设施市场31.8%的市场份额。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已发展成为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软(MSFT)和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.<blockquote>到2025年，全球数据量将增长23%，这支撑了云基础设施市场的快速增长，因为随着数据分析、5G和物联网的兴起，世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.<blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长基于到2025年数据量以23%的CAGR增长，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>*A=B x C资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.<blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS，AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，例如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，以构建基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用区，并计划再推出15个可用区来支持其云增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Canalys、Khaveen投资</blockquote> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.<blockquote>总而言之，我们基于市场份额预测假设来预测AWS的收入增长，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢削弱，但在利用AWS的稳固大客户关系的支持下仍保持其市场领先地位。根据到2023年30.7%的市场份额预测，我们预计AWS收入将增长至815亿美元。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>AWS Forecasts<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>AWS预测</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Market Share<blockquote><tr><td>AWS市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>32.6%<blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.3%<blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.8%<blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.0%<blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>30.7%<blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><tr><td>AWS收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.<blockquote>虽然AWS仅占其总收入的11%，但与其他公司部门的2.8%相比，其29%的高利润率使AWS在2020年占营业收入的59%，这凸显了AWS对其利润的重要性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk<blockquote>反垄断和数据隐私罚款风险</blockquote> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.<blockquote>民主党的报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家那里获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为40%。由于卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取额外费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，由众议院议员组成的两党小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司在一系列广泛的反垄断改革下对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.<blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊遭受了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临8.88亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反了欧盟的通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR允许罚款高达亚马逊收入的4%，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊2020年213亿美元收入的4.2%。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.<blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其利润率不断上升，因为由于其利润率更高的云业务的卓越增长，其净利润率也有所上升。AWS部门的营业利润率高达29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为2.8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.<blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有良好且强大的现金产生能力，过去5年的平均自由现金流利润率为3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购Whole Foods，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于利润率的上升，因为其利润更高的AWS业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.<blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其偿还债务的强大能力。2020年其净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着AWS的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去5年中从32倍稳步上升。</blockquote> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.<blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了DCF估值，因为该公司过去拥有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到的行业平均EV/EBITDA为27.64倍，如下表所示。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Company<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>公司</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>EV/EBITDA<blockquote><td>EV/EBITDA</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>28.57x<blockquote><td>28.57 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Alibaba (BABA)<blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（父亲）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21.14x<blockquote><td>21.14 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Microsoft<blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.89x<blockquote><td>25.89 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Google<blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.46x<blockquote><td>22.46 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Average<blockquote><tr><td>均值</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>24.52x<blockquote><td>24.52 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: SeekingAlpha<blockquote>来源：SeekingAlpha</blockquote> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.<blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS和其他的收入细分总结如下。网上商店预测源自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售额增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场中的第三方卖家GMV份额，并假设其从佣金和相关费用中获得%的收入。基于不断增长的数据量预测，AWS收入来自云市场增长。其他细分市场基于其平均3年增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，并从2027年的12.3%逐步下调，到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务和云计算市场将更加成熟。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Online stores<blockquote><tr><td>在线商店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Physical stores<blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>17.22<blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.19<blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></td> <td>16.23<blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.40<blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></td> <td>18.55<blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.38<blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>196.9%<blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-0.2%<blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-5.6%<blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Subscription services<blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>14.17<blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.21<blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.21<blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.67<blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.68<blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></td> <td>65.58<blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.6%<blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS<blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Other<blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>10.11<blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.09<blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.45<blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.27<blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.60<blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.48<blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>117.4%<blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.4%<blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>52.2%<blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total<blockquote><tr><td>总的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>232.9<blockquote><td>232.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.53<blockquote><td>280.53</td></blockquote></td> <td>386.07<blockquote><td>386.07</td></blockquote></td> <td>447.0<blockquote><td>447.0</td></blockquote></td> <td>545.9<blockquote><td>545.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>669.1<blockquote><td>669.1</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>总增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>30.9%<blockquote><td>30.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.5%<blockquote><td>20.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.6%<blockquote><td>37.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.8%<blockquote><td>15.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.1%<blockquote><td>22.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.6%<blockquote><td>22.6%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.<blockquote>基于12.7%的贴现率（公司的WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为36.9%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：卡文投资</blockquote> Verdict<blockquote>裁决</blockquote> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.<blockquote>总之，我们分析了该公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和AWS。虽然加速增长最终结束，但作为电子商务领域成熟且占主导地位的市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为转向电子商务，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比预计将继续上升，预计到2023年将达到22%。该公司的Prime会员为其提供了大约占美国人口一半的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和运输网络，亚马逊FBA在其在线市场上看到第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户有着密切的关系，管理层也不断致力于满足该细分市场不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预计2021年增长正常化，但我们认为其前景继续受到电子商务和云计算市场不断增长的提振，并将我们的增长率预测修正为2021年的15.8%，随后修正为2020年的22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为购买目标价格为$4,363.96.</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-09-08 11:34\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li> <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li> <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li> <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年收入增长超出我们预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍有望从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用DCF分析修改了估值，从3,358.73美元获得了4,303.18美元的新目标价。</li></ul>4kodiak/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</blockquote> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.<blockquote>自我们上次报道以来，亚马逊公司(AMZN)的股价已上涨26%，超出了我们24.5%的收入增长预期，并在2020年底上涨了37.6%，其在线零售业务增长了40%，达到近2000亿美元，第三方服务800亿美元。在本次分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和AWS。</blockquote> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.<blockquote>尽管第二季度网上商店销售额增长疲软13%，第三季度同比指引中点疲软13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力。亚马逊已确立市场地位的在线零售。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到2023年，电子商务的份额将从2020年的18%达到22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、作为忠实客户的庞大Prime会员基础以及坚实的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，正如其与第三方卖家的电子商务市场的崛起所证明的那样。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，持续致力于增长并以不断增长的数据量为基础。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth<blockquote>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</blockquote> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.<blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，加速了向电子商务的采用。然而，尽管2021年第二季度在线商店增长同比放缓13%，而第一季度为41%，但我们相信该公司将继续受益于电子商务采用率不断上升的长期推动力。</blockquote> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.<blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向在线购买，电子商务销售额的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将反弹7.2%。因此，2021年电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%实现正常化增长，渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = C x A<blockquote>*B=C x A</blockquote> Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.<blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争优势。更具体地说，很难在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上赢得公司的支持。显然，该公司的Prime会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司具有强大的吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也推动消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Backlinko<blockquote>资料来源：Backlinko</blockquote> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>除了Prime会员之外，该公司还能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，自2017年以来新增卖家330万人，即每天3,718人。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已确立了自己作为市场主导者的地位，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于第二接近的竞争对手。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Marketing Charts<blockquote>资料来源：营销图表</blockquote> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>如下表所示，其在不同产品类别和市场中的市场领导地位相当广泛。例如，其消费品和消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务总销售额的50.2%，占零售总额的26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: eMarketer<blockquote>资料来源：eMarketer</blockquote> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.<blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌(GOOG)和苹果(AAPL)，并继续通过新一代产品和软件更新来开发该产品。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据Echo产品系列103美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为39.4亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.<blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的不断增长，我们预计这一产品广度将继续扩大，并通过产品多样性为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.<blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有成熟的客户群和忠诚的Prime会员生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛的市场领导地位和广泛的产品广度的庞大卖家基础，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店增长是基于我们对其市场份额的预期（基于全球电子商务销售额的5年平均值）为4.5%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>零售销售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>16.2%<blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.9%<blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.3%<blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11.5%<blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.4%<blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.8%<blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.0%<blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入('d')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>91.43<blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></td> <td>108.35<blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>18.5%<blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额('e')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.0%<blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.1%<blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.2%<blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.6%<blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = A x C<blockquote>*B=A x C</blockquote> *D = B x E<blockquote>*D=B x E</blockquote> Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The Rise of Third-party Seller Services<blockquote>第三方卖家服务的兴起</blockquote> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.<blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和运输业务，这已成为一条难以逾越的护城河，很少有其他公司拥有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要送货提供商合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供的计划使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单。</blockquote> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.<blockquote>通过亚马逊物流（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的运营中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金以及相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、货件跟踪和报告。</blockquote> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.<blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更大的灵活性和控制力、更强大的品牌影响力和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的比例不断上升，达到总销售额的62%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: FourWeekMBA<blockquote>资料来源：FourWeekMBA</blockquote> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.<blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和运输网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和UPS竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其交付网络以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国运送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: WebFX<blockquote>来源：WebFX</blockquote> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.<blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，即将于2021年在密苏里州开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输大型客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020年，该公司宣布了7个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州600,000平方英尺的设施、田纳西州855,000平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州625,000平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CNBC<blockquote>资料来源：CNBC</blockquote> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.<blockquote>总体而言，这些都是该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面的优势的因素之一。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数人或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，公司的计划扩张将继续增强其物流网络并保持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista<blockquote>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</blockquote> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.<blockquote>我们预测了该公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，亚马逊的第三方商品销售总额预计将在过去5年的平均增长率为9%。此外，我们还预测，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的27.3%增长1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的60%至75%之间，低于AWS的80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率37%由于与占总销售额60%的销售成本相关的高成本。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额('b')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.6%<blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.5%<blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.4%<blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.0%<blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.9%<blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.5%<blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.9%<blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21%<blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11%<blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></td> <td>16%<blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊商城）GMV('c')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>103<blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></td> <td>130<blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></td> <td>160<blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></td> <td>200<blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></td> <td>295<blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></td> <td>353<blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></td> <td>443<blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></td> <td>553<blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>26.2%<blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>23.1%<blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.5%<blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.8%<blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.3%<blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>% Of Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>佔收入百分比（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.3%<blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>24.5%<blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.7%<blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.9%<blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.3%<blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.8%<blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>28.1%<blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9.9%<blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9.0%<blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>0.6%<blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.5%<blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.99<blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.88<blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>38.7%<blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> *C = A x B<blockquote>*C=A × B</blockquote> *E = C x D<blockquote>*E=C x D</blockquote> Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth<blockquote>AWS按数据量增长增长</blockquote> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.<blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有Netflix(NFLX)、Verizon(VZ)、Capital One(COF)、麦当劳(MCD)等著名大客户。2020年AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，占据云基础设施市场31.8%的市场份额。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已发展成为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软(MSFT)和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.<blockquote>到2025年，全球数据量将增长23%，这支撑了云基础设施市场的快速增长，因为随着数据分析、5G和物联网的兴起，世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.<blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长基于到2025年数据量以23%的CAGR增长，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>*A=B x C资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.<blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS，AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，例如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，以构建基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用区，并计划再推出15个可用区来支持其云增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Canalys、Khaveen投资</blockquote> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.<blockquote>总而言之，我们基于市场份额预测假设来预测AWS的收入增长，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢削弱，但在利用AWS的稳固大客户关系的支持下仍保持其市场领先地位。根据到2023年30.7%的市场份额预测，我们预计AWS收入将增长至815亿美元。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>AWS Forecasts<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>AWS预测</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Market Share<blockquote><tr><td>AWS市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>32.6%<blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.3%<blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.8%<blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.0%<blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>30.7%<blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><tr><td>AWS收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.<blockquote>虽然AWS仅占其总收入的11%，但与其他公司部门的2.8%相比，其29%的高利润率使AWS在2020年占营业收入的59%，这凸显了AWS对其利润的重要性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk<blockquote>反垄断和数据隐私罚款风险</blockquote> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.<blockquote>民主党的报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家那里获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为40%。由于卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取额外费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，由众议院议员组成的两党小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司在一系列广泛的反垄断改革下对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.<blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊遭受了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临8.88亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反了欧盟的通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR允许罚款高达亚马逊收入的4%，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊2020年213亿美元收入的4.2%。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.<blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其利润率不断上升，因为由于其利润率更高的云业务的卓越增长，其净利润率也有所上升。AWS部门的营业利润率高达29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为2.8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.<blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有良好且强大的现金产生能力，过去5年的平均自由现金流利润率为3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购Whole Foods，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于利润率的上升，因为其利润更高的AWS业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.<blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其偿还债务的强大能力。2020年其净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着AWS的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去5年中从32倍稳步上升。</blockquote> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.<blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了DCF估值，因为该公司过去拥有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到的行业平均EV/EBITDA为27.64倍，如下表所示。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Company<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>公司</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>EV/EBITDA<blockquote><td>EV/EBITDA</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>28.57x<blockquote><td>28.57 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Alibaba (BABA)<blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（父亲）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21.14x<blockquote><td>21.14 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Microsoft<blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.89x<blockquote><td>25.89 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Google<blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.46x<blockquote><td>22.46 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Average<blockquote><tr><td>均值</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>24.52x<blockquote><td>24.52 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: SeekingAlpha<blockquote>来源：SeekingAlpha</blockquote> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.<blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS和其他的收入细分总结如下。网上商店预测源自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售额增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场中的第三方卖家GMV份额，并假设其从佣金和相关费用中获得%的收入。基于不断增长的数据量预测，AWS收入来自云市场增长。其他细分市场基于其平均3年增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，并从2027年的12.3%逐步下调，到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务和云计算市场将更加成熟。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Online stores<blockquote><tr><td>在线商店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Physical stores<blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>17.22<blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.19<blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></td> <td>16.23<blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.40<blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></td> <td>18.55<blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.38<blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>196.9%<blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-0.2%<blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-5.6%<blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Subscription services<blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>14.17<blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.21<blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.21<blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.67<blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.68<blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></td> <td>65.58<blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.6%<blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS<blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Other<blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>10.11<blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.09<blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.45<blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.27<blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.60<blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.48<blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>117.4%<blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.4%<blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>52.2%<blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total<blockquote><tr><td>总的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>232.9<blockquote><td>232.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.53<blockquote><td>280.53</td></blockquote></td> <td>386.07<blockquote><td>386.07</td></blockquote></td> <td>447.0<blockquote><td>447.0</td></blockquote></td> <td>545.9<blockquote><td>545.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>669.1<blockquote><td>669.1</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>总增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>30.9%<blockquote><td>30.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.5%<blockquote><td>20.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.6%<blockquote><td>37.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.8%<blockquote><td>15.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.1%<blockquote><td>22.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.6%<blockquote><td>22.6%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.<blockquote>基于12.7%的贴现率（公司的WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为36.9%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：卡文投资</blockquote> Verdict<blockquote>裁决</blockquote> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.<blockquote>总之，我们分析了该公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和AWS。虽然加速增长最终结束，但作为电子商务领域成熟且占主导地位的市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为转向电子商务，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比预计将继续上升，预计到2023年将达到22%。该公司的Prime会员为其提供了大约占美国人口一半的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和运输网络，亚马逊FBA在其在线市场上看到第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户有着密切的关系，管理层也不断致力于满足该细分市场不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预计2021年增长正常化，但我们认为其前景继续受到电子商务和云计算市场不断增长的提振，并将我们的增长率预测修正为2021年的15.8%，随后修正为2020年的22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为购买目标价格为$4,363.96.</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143120804","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.\nWhile growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.\nAWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.\nWe revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.\n\n4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nSince our previous coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.\nDespite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3 guidance of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.\nSource: Amazon\nE-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth\nAmazon's online store sales have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.\nAccording to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to reach 22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.\n\n\n\nGlobal E-Commerce Market ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Global Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\n\n* B = C x A\nSource: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments\nAmazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.\nSource: Backlinko\nIn addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently attract sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.\nSource: Marketing Charts\nIts market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer & consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel & accessories, books music & video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.\nSource: eMarketer\nAmong the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having purchased electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker units and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average price of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.\nAll in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln products excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.\nThus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.\n\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\nGrowth %\n16.2%\n20.9%\n17.3%\n11.5%\n32.4%\n2.8%\n8.1%\n10.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')\n91.43\n108.35\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n18.5%\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')\n5.0%\n4.5%\n4.1%\n4.2%\n4.6%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n\n\n\n* B = A x C\n*D = B x E\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThe Rise of Third-party Seller Services\nAnother major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.\nWith Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.\nSelling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately provides more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising share of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.\nSource: FourWeekMBA\nThe chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it enhances its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business delivered 1.9 bln packages in the US.\nSource: WebFX\nMoreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming opening of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it announced plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.\nSource: CNBC\nOverall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has free Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.\nSource: Statista\nWe forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which represents 60% of its total sales.\n\n\n\nThird-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nGlobal Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Third Party Market Share ('b')\n5.6%\n5.5%\n5.4%\n6.0%\n6.9%\n7.5%\n8.1%\n8.9%\n\n\nGrowth %\n21%\n-2%\n-2%\n11%\n16%\n9%\n9%\n9%\n\n\nThird-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')\n103\n130\n160\n200\n295\n353\n443\n553\n\n\nGrowth %\n26.2%\n23.1%\n25.0%\n47.5%\n19.8%\n25.3%\n25.0%\n\n\n% Of Revenues ('d')\n22.3%\n24.5%\n26.7%\n26.9%\n27.3%\n27.6%\n27.8%\n28.1%\n\n\nGrowth %\n9.9%\n9.0%\n0.6%\n1.5%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services revenues ('e')\n22.99\n31.88\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n38.7%\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\n\n*C = A x B\n*E = C x D\nSource: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments\nAWS Growth by Data Volume Growth\nAnother key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.\nThe rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nWe projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23% CAGR through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.\n* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently announced a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.\nSource: Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nAll in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.\n\n\n\nAWS Forecasts\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nAWS Market Share\n32.6%\n32.3%\n31.8%\n31.2%\n31.0%\n30.7%\n\n\nAWS Revenues ($ bln)\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nWhile AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.\nSource: Amazon\nAntimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk\nAmazon has been involved in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.\nWhereas in the European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.\nValuation\nThe company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nMore importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the acquisition of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nThe company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.\nTo value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.\n\n\n\nCompany\nEV/EBITDA\n\n\nAmazon\n28.57x\n\n\nAlibaba (BABA)\n21.14x\n\n\nMicrosoft\n25.89x\n\n\nGoogle\n22.46x\n\n\nAverage\n24.52x\n\n\n\nSource: SeekingAlpha\nThe revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.\n\n\n\nAmazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nOnline stores\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPhysical stores\n17.22\n17.19\n16.23\n17.40\n18.55\n19.38\n\n\nGrowth %\n196.9%\n-0.2%\n-5.6%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\nSubscription services\n14.17\n19.21\n25.21\n34.67\n47.68\n65.58\n\n\nGrowth %\n45.8%\n35.6%\n31.2%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n\n\nAWS\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\nOther\n10.11\n14.09\n21.45\n31.27\n45.60\n66.48\n\n\nGrowth %\n117.4%\n39.4%\n52.2%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n\n\nTotal\n232.9\n280.53\n386.07\n447.0\n545.9\n669.1\n\n\nTotal Growth %\n30.9%\n20.5%\n37.6%\n15.8%\n22.1%\n22.6%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nBased on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.\nSource: Khaveen Investments\nVerdict\nIn conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5790109,"gmtCreate":1631077349551,"gmtModify":1631893585735,"authorId":4091088321144510,"author":{"id":4091088321144510,"idStr":"4091088321144510","authorId":4091088321144510,"name":"JunHaoT","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":880471352,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Yes","text":"Yes","html":"Yes"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":880442106,"gmtCreate":1631076191505,"gmtModify":1631891625331,"author":{"id":"3583806200035507","authorId":"3583806200035507","name":"HuiBing","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3583806200035507","authorIdStr":"3583806200035507"},"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880442106","repostId":1143120804,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143120804","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631072080,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143120804?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 11:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143120804","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth ra","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li> <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li> <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li> <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年收入增长超出我们预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍有望从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用DCF分析修改了估值，从3,358.73美元获得了4,303.18美元的新目标价。</li></ul>4kodiak/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</blockquote> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.<blockquote>自我们上次报道以来，亚马逊公司(AMZN)的股价已上涨26%，超出了我们24.5%的收入增长预期，并在2020年底上涨了37.6%，其在线零售业务增长了40%，达到近2000亿美元，第三方服务800亿美元。在本次分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和AWS。</blockquote> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.<blockquote>尽管第二季度网上商店销售额增长疲软13%，第三季度同比指引中点疲软13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力。亚马逊已确立市场地位的在线零售。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到2023年，电子商务的份额将从2020年的18%达到22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、作为忠实客户的庞大Prime会员基础以及坚实的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，正如其与第三方卖家的电子商务市场的崛起所证明的那样。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，持续致力于增长并以不断增长的数据量为基础。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth<blockquote>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</blockquote> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.<blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，加速了向电子商务的采用。然而，尽管2021年第二季度在线商店增长同比放缓13%，而第一季度为41%，但我们相信该公司将继续受益于电子商务采用率不断上升的长期推动力。</blockquote> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.<blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向在线购买，电子商务销售额的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将反弹7.2%。因此，2021年电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%实现正常化增长，渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = C x A<blockquote>*B=C x A</blockquote> Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.<blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争优势。更具体地说，很难在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上赢得公司的支持。显然，该公司的Prime会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司具有强大的吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也推动消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Backlinko<blockquote>资料来源：Backlinko</blockquote> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>除了Prime会员之外，该公司还能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，自2017年以来新增卖家330万人，即每天3,718人。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已确立了自己作为市场主导者的地位，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于第二接近的竞争对手。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Marketing Charts<blockquote>资料来源：营销图表</blockquote> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>如下表所示，其在不同产品类别和市场中的市场领导地位相当广泛。例如，其消费品和消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务总销售额的50.2%，占零售总额的26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: eMarketer<blockquote>资料来源：eMarketer</blockquote> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.<blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌(GOOG)和苹果(AAPL)，并继续通过新一代产品和软件更新来开发该产品。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据Echo产品系列103美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为39.4亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.<blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的不断增长，我们预计这一产品广度将继续扩大，并通过产品多样性为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.<blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有成熟的客户群和忠诚的Prime会员生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛的市场领导地位和广泛的产品广度的庞大卖家基础，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店增长是基于我们对其市场份额的预期（基于全球电子商务销售额的5年平均值）为4.5%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>零售销售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>16.2%<blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.9%<blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.3%<blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11.5%<blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.4%<blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.8%<blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.0%<blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入('d')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>91.43<blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></td> <td>108.35<blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>18.5%<blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额('e')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.0%<blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.1%<blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.2%<blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.6%<blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = A x C<blockquote>*B=A x C</blockquote> *D = B x E<blockquote>*D=B x E</blockquote> Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The Rise of Third-party Seller Services<blockquote>第三方卖家服务的兴起</blockquote> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.<blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和运输业务，这已成为一条难以逾越的护城河，很少有其他公司拥有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要送货提供商合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供的计划使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单。</blockquote> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.<blockquote>通过亚马逊物流（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的运营中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金以及相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、货件跟踪和报告。</blockquote> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.<blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更大的灵活性和控制力、更强大的品牌影响力和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的比例不断上升，达到总销售额的62%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: FourWeekMBA<blockquote>资料来源：FourWeekMBA</blockquote> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.<blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和运输网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和UPS竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其交付网络以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国运送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: WebFX<blockquote>来源：WebFX</blockquote> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.<blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，即将于2021年在密苏里州开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输大型客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020年，该公司宣布了7个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州600,000平方英尺的设施、田纳西州855,000平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州625,000平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CNBC<blockquote>资料来源：CNBC</blockquote> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.<blockquote>总体而言，这些都是该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面的优势的因素之一。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数人或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，公司的计划扩张将继续增强其物流网络并保持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista<blockquote>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</blockquote> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.<blockquote>我们预测了该公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，亚马逊的第三方商品销售总额预计将在过去5年的平均增长率为9%。此外，我们还预测，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的27.3%增长1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的60%至75%之间，低于AWS的80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率37%由于与占总销售额60%的销售成本相关的高成本。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额('b')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.6%<blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.5%<blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.4%<blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.0%<blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.9%<blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.5%<blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.9%<blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21%<blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11%<blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></td> <td>16%<blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊商城）GMV('c')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>103<blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></td> <td>130<blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></td> <td>160<blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></td> <td>200<blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></td> <td>295<blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></td> <td>353<blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></td> <td>443<blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></td> <td>553<blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>26.2%<blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>23.1%<blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.5%<blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.8%<blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.3%<blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>% Of Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>佔收入百分比（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.3%<blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>24.5%<blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.7%<blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.9%<blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.3%<blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.8%<blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>28.1%<blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9.9%<blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9.0%<blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>0.6%<blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.5%<blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.99<blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.88<blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>38.7%<blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> *C = A x B<blockquote>*C=A × B</blockquote> *E = C x D<blockquote>*E=C x D</blockquote> Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth<blockquote>AWS按数据量增长增长</blockquote> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.<blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有Netflix(NFLX)、Verizon(VZ)、Capital One(COF)、麦当劳(MCD)等著名大客户。2020年AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，占据云基础设施市场31.8%的市场份额。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已发展成为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软(MSFT)和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.<blockquote>到2025年，全球数据量将增长23%，这支撑了云基础设施市场的快速增长，因为随着数据分析、5G和物联网的兴起，世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.<blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长基于到2025年数据量以23%的CAGR增长，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>*A=B x C资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.<blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS，AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，例如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，以构建基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用区，并计划再推出15个可用区来支持其云增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Canalys、Khaveen投资</blockquote> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.<blockquote>总而言之，我们基于市场份额预测假设来预测AWS的收入增长，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢削弱，但在利用AWS的稳固大客户关系的支持下仍保持其市场领先地位。根据到2023年30.7%的市场份额预测，我们预计AWS收入将增长至815亿美元。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>AWS Forecasts<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>AWS预测</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Market Share<blockquote><tr><td>AWS市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>32.6%<blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.3%<blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.8%<blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.0%<blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>30.7%<blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><tr><td>AWS收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.<blockquote>虽然AWS仅占其总收入的11%，但与其他公司部门的2.8%相比，其29%的高利润率使AWS在2020年占营业收入的59%，这凸显了AWS对其利润的重要性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk<blockquote>反垄断和数据隐私罚款风险</blockquote> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.<blockquote>民主党的报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家那里获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为40%。由于卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取额外费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，由众议院议员组成的两党小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司在一系列广泛的反垄断改革下对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.<blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊遭受了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临8.88亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反了欧盟的通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR允许罚款高达亚马逊收入的4%，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊2020年213亿美元收入的4.2%。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.<blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其利润率不断上升，因为由于其利润率更高的云业务的卓越增长，其净利润率也有所上升。AWS部门的营业利润率高达29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为2.8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.<blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有良好且强大的现金产生能力，过去5年的平均自由现金流利润率为3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购Whole Foods，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于利润率的上升，因为其利润更高的AWS业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.<blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其偿还债务的强大能力。2020年其净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着AWS的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去5年中从32倍稳步上升。</blockquote> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.<blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了DCF估值，因为该公司过去拥有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到的行业平均EV/EBITDA为27.64倍，如下表所示。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Company<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>公司</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>EV/EBITDA<blockquote><td>EV/EBITDA</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>28.57x<blockquote><td>28.57 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Alibaba (BABA)<blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（父亲）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21.14x<blockquote><td>21.14 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Microsoft<blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.89x<blockquote><td>25.89 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Google<blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.46x<blockquote><td>22.46 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Average<blockquote><tr><td>均值</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>24.52x<blockquote><td>24.52 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: SeekingAlpha<blockquote>来源：SeekingAlpha</blockquote> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.<blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS和其他的收入细分总结如下。网上商店预测源自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售额增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场中的第三方卖家GMV份额，并假设其从佣金和相关费用中获得%的收入。基于不断增长的数据量预测，AWS收入来自云市场增长。其他细分市场基于其平均3年增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，并从2027年的12.3%逐步下调，到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务和云计算市场将更加成熟。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Online stores<blockquote><tr><td>在线商店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Physical stores<blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>17.22<blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.19<blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></td> <td>16.23<blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.40<blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></td> <td>18.55<blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.38<blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>196.9%<blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-0.2%<blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-5.6%<blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Subscription services<blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>14.17<blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.21<blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.21<blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.67<blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.68<blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></td> <td>65.58<blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.6%<blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS<blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Other<blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>10.11<blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.09<blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.45<blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.27<blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.60<blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.48<blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>117.4%<blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.4%<blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>52.2%<blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total<blockquote><tr><td>总的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>232.9<blockquote><td>232.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.53<blockquote><td>280.53</td></blockquote></td> <td>386.07<blockquote><td>386.07</td></blockquote></td> <td>447.0<blockquote><td>447.0</td></blockquote></td> <td>545.9<blockquote><td>545.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>669.1<blockquote><td>669.1</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>总增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>30.9%<blockquote><td>30.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.5%<blockquote><td>20.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.6%<blockquote><td>37.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.8%<blockquote><td>15.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.1%<blockquote><td>22.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.6%<blockquote><td>22.6%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.<blockquote>基于12.7%的贴现率（公司的WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为36.9%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：卡文投资</blockquote> Verdict<blockquote>裁决</blockquote> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.<blockquote>总之，我们分析了该公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和AWS。虽然加速增长最终结束，但作为电子商务领域成熟且占主导地位的市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为转向电子商务，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比预计将继续上升，预计到2023年将达到22%。该公司的Prime会员为其提供了大约占美国人口一半的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和运输网络，亚马逊FBA在其在线市场上看到第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户有着密切的关系，管理层也不断致力于满足该细分市场不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预计2021年增长正常化，但我们认为其前景继续受到电子商务和云计算市场不断增长的提振，并将我们的增长率预测修正为2021年的15.8%，随后修正为2020年的22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为购买目标价格为$4,363.96.</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-09-08 11:34\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li> <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li> <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li> <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年收入增长超出我们预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍有望从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用DCF分析修改了估值，从3,358.73美元获得了4,303.18美元的新目标价。</li></ul>4kodiak/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</blockquote> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.<blockquote>自我们上次报道以来，亚马逊公司(AMZN)的股价已上涨26%，超出了我们24.5%的收入增长预期，并在2020年底上涨了37.6%，其在线零售业务增长了40%，达到近2000亿美元，第三方服务800亿美元。在本次分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和AWS。</blockquote> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.<blockquote>尽管第二季度网上商店销售额增长疲软13%，第三季度同比指引中点疲软13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力。亚马逊已确立市场地位的在线零售。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到2023年，电子商务的份额将从2020年的18%达到22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、作为忠实客户的庞大Prime会员基础以及坚实的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，正如其与第三方卖家的电子商务市场的崛起所证明的那样。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，持续致力于增长并以不断增长的数据量为基础。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth<blockquote>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</blockquote> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.<blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，加速了向电子商务的采用。然而，尽管2021年第二季度在线商店增长同比放缓13%，而第一季度为41%，但我们相信该公司将继续受益于电子商务采用率不断上升的长期推动力。</blockquote> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.<blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向在线购买，电子商务销售额的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将反弹7.2%。因此，2021年电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%实现正常化增长，渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = C x A<blockquote>*B=C x A</blockquote> Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.<blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争优势。更具体地说，很难在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上赢得公司的支持。显然，该公司的Prime会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司具有强大的吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也推动消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Backlinko<blockquote>资料来源：Backlinko</blockquote> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>除了Prime会员之外，该公司还能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，自2017年以来新增卖家330万人，即每天3,718人。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已确立了自己作为市场主导者的地位，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于第二接近的竞争对手。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Marketing Charts<blockquote>资料来源：营销图表</blockquote> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>如下表所示，其在不同产品类别和市场中的市场领导地位相当广泛。例如，其消费品和消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务总销售额的50.2%，占零售总额的26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: eMarketer<blockquote>资料来源：eMarketer</blockquote> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.<blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌(GOOG)和苹果(AAPL)，并继续通过新一代产品和软件更新来开发该产品。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据Echo产品系列103美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为39.4亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.<blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的不断增长，我们预计这一产品广度将继续扩大，并通过产品多样性为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.<blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有成熟的客户群和忠诚的Prime会员生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛的市场领导地位和广泛的产品广度的庞大卖家基础，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店增长是基于我们对其市场份额的预期（基于全球电子商务销售额的5年平均值）为4.5%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>零售销售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>16.2%<blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.9%<blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.3%<blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11.5%<blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.4%<blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.8%<blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.0%<blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入('d')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>91.43<blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></td> <td>108.35<blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>18.5%<blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额('e')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.0%<blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.1%<blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.2%<blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.6%<blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = A x C<blockquote>*B=A x C</blockquote> *D = B x E<blockquote>*D=B x E</blockquote> Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The Rise of Third-party Seller Services<blockquote>第三方卖家服务的兴起</blockquote> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.<blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和运输业务，这已成为一条难以逾越的护城河，很少有其他公司拥有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要送货提供商合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供的计划使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单。</blockquote> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.<blockquote>通过亚马逊物流（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的运营中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金以及相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、货件跟踪和报告。</blockquote> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.<blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更大的灵活性和控制力、更强大的品牌影响力和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的比例不断上升，达到总销售额的62%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: FourWeekMBA<blockquote>资料来源：FourWeekMBA</blockquote> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.<blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和运输网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和UPS竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其交付网络以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国运送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: WebFX<blockquote>来源：WebFX</blockquote> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.<blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，即将于2021年在密苏里州开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输大型客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020年，该公司宣布了7个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州600,000平方英尺的设施、田纳西州855,000平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州625,000平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CNBC<blockquote>资料来源：CNBC</blockquote> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.<blockquote>总体而言，这些都是该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面的优势的因素之一。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数人或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，公司的计划扩张将继续增强其物流网络并保持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista<blockquote>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</blockquote> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.<blockquote>我们预测了该公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，亚马逊的第三方商品销售总额预计将在过去5年的平均增长率为9%。此外，我们还预测，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的27.3%增长1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的60%至75%之间，低于AWS的80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率37%由于与占总销售额60%的销售成本相关的高成本。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额('b')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.6%<blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.5%<blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.4%<blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.0%<blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.9%<blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.5%<blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.9%<blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21%<blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11%<blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></td> <td>16%<blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊商城）GMV('c')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>103<blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></td> <td>130<blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></td> <td>160<blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></td> <td>200<blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></td> <td>295<blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></td> <td>353<blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></td> <td>443<blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></td> <td>553<blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>26.2%<blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>23.1%<blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.5%<blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.8%<blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.3%<blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>% Of Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>佔收入百分比（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.3%<blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>24.5%<blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.7%<blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.9%<blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.3%<blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.8%<blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>28.1%<blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9.9%<blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9.0%<blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>0.6%<blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.5%<blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.99<blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.88<blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>38.7%<blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> *C = A x B<blockquote>*C=A × B</blockquote> *E = C x D<blockquote>*E=C x D</blockquote> Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth<blockquote>AWS按数据量增长增长</blockquote> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.<blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有Netflix(NFLX)、Verizon(VZ)、Capital One(COF)、麦当劳(MCD)等著名大客户。2020年AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，占据云基础设施市场31.8%的市场份额。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已发展成为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软(MSFT)和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.<blockquote>到2025年，全球数据量将增长23%，这支撑了云基础设施市场的快速增长，因为随着数据分析、5G和物联网的兴起，世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.<blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长基于到2025年数据量以23%的CAGR增长，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>*A=B x C资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.<blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS，AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，例如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，以构建基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用区，并计划再推出15个可用区来支持其云增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Canalys、Khaveen投资</blockquote> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.<blockquote>总而言之，我们基于市场份额预测假设来预测AWS的收入增长，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢削弱，但在利用AWS的稳固大客户关系的支持下仍保持其市场领先地位。根据到2023年30.7%的市场份额预测，我们预计AWS收入将增长至815亿美元。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>AWS Forecasts<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>AWS预测</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Market Share<blockquote><tr><td>AWS市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>32.6%<blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.3%<blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.8%<blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.0%<blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>30.7%<blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><tr><td>AWS收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.<blockquote>虽然AWS仅占其总收入的11%，但与其他公司部门的2.8%相比，其29%的高利润率使AWS在2020年占营业收入的59%，这凸显了AWS对其利润的重要性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk<blockquote>反垄断和数据隐私罚款风险</blockquote> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.<blockquote>民主党的报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家那里获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为40%。由于卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取额外费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，由众议院议员组成的两党小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司在一系列广泛的反垄断改革下对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.<blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊遭受了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临8.88亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反了欧盟的通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR允许罚款高达亚马逊收入的4%，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊2020年213亿美元收入的4.2%。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.<blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其利润率不断上升，因为由于其利润率更高的云业务的卓越增长，其净利润率也有所上升。AWS部门的营业利润率高达29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为2.8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.<blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有良好且强大的现金产生能力，过去5年的平均自由现金流利润率为3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购Whole Foods，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于利润率的上升，因为其利润更高的AWS业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.<blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其偿还债务的强大能力。2020年其净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着AWS的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去5年中从32倍稳步上升。</blockquote> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.<blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了DCF估值，因为该公司过去拥有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到的行业平均EV/EBITDA为27.64倍，如下表所示。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Company<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>公司</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>EV/EBITDA<blockquote><td>EV/EBITDA</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>28.57x<blockquote><td>28.57 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Alibaba (BABA)<blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（父亲）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21.14x<blockquote><td>21.14 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Microsoft<blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.89x<blockquote><td>25.89 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Google<blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.46x<blockquote><td>22.46 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Average<blockquote><tr><td>均值</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>24.52x<blockquote><td>24.52 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: SeekingAlpha<blockquote>来源：SeekingAlpha</blockquote> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.<blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS和其他的收入细分总结如下。网上商店预测源自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售额增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场中的第三方卖家GMV份额，并假设其从佣金和相关费用中获得%的收入。基于不断增长的数据量预测，AWS收入来自云市场增长。其他细分市场基于其平均3年增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，并从2027年的12.3%逐步下调，到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务和云计算市场将更加成熟。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Online stores<blockquote><tr><td>在线商店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Physical stores<blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>17.22<blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.19<blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></td> <td>16.23<blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.40<blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></td> <td>18.55<blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.38<blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>196.9%<blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-0.2%<blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-5.6%<blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Subscription services<blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>14.17<blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.21<blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.21<blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.67<blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.68<blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></td> <td>65.58<blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.6%<blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS<blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Other<blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>10.11<blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.09<blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.45<blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.27<blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.60<blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.48<blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>117.4%<blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.4%<blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>52.2%<blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total<blockquote><tr><td>总的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>232.9<blockquote><td>232.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.53<blockquote><td>280.53</td></blockquote></td> <td>386.07<blockquote><td>386.07</td></blockquote></td> <td>447.0<blockquote><td>447.0</td></blockquote></td> <td>545.9<blockquote><td>545.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>669.1<blockquote><td>669.1</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>总增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>30.9%<blockquote><td>30.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.5%<blockquote><td>20.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.6%<blockquote><td>37.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.8%<blockquote><td>15.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.1%<blockquote><td>22.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.6%<blockquote><td>22.6%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.<blockquote>基于12.7%的贴现率（公司的WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为36.9%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：卡文投资</blockquote> Verdict<blockquote>裁决</blockquote> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.<blockquote>总之，我们分析了该公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和AWS。虽然加速增长最终结束，但作为电子商务领域成熟且占主导地位的市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为转向电子商务，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比预计将继续上升，预计到2023年将达到22%。该公司的Prime会员为其提供了大约占美国人口一半的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和运输网络，亚马逊FBA在其在线市场上看到第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户有着密切的关系，管理层也不断致力于满足该细分市场不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预计2021年增长正常化，但我们认为其前景继续受到电子商务和云计算市场不断增长的提振，并将我们的增长率预测修正为2021年的15.8%，随后修正为2020年的22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为购买目标价格为$4,363.96.</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143120804","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.\nWhile growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.\nAWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.\nWe revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.\n\n4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nSince our previous coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.\nDespite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3 guidance of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.\nSource: Amazon\nE-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth\nAmazon's online store sales have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.\nAccording to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to reach 22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.\n\n\n\nGlobal E-Commerce Market ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Global Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\n\n* B = C x A\nSource: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments\nAmazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.\nSource: Backlinko\nIn addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently attract sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.\nSource: Marketing Charts\nIts market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer & consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel & accessories, books music & video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.\nSource: eMarketer\nAmong the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having purchased electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker units and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average price of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.\nAll in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln products excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.\nThus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.\n\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\nGrowth %\n16.2%\n20.9%\n17.3%\n11.5%\n32.4%\n2.8%\n8.1%\n10.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')\n91.43\n108.35\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n18.5%\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')\n5.0%\n4.5%\n4.1%\n4.2%\n4.6%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n\n\n\n* B = A x C\n*D = B x E\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThe Rise of Third-party Seller Services\nAnother major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.\nWith Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.\nSelling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately provides more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising share of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.\nSource: FourWeekMBA\nThe chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it enhances its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business delivered 1.9 bln packages in the US.\nSource: WebFX\nMoreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming opening of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it announced plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.\nSource: CNBC\nOverall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has free Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.\nSource: Statista\nWe forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which represents 60% of its total sales.\n\n\n\nThird-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nGlobal Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Third Party Market Share ('b')\n5.6%\n5.5%\n5.4%\n6.0%\n6.9%\n7.5%\n8.1%\n8.9%\n\n\nGrowth %\n21%\n-2%\n-2%\n11%\n16%\n9%\n9%\n9%\n\n\nThird-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')\n103\n130\n160\n200\n295\n353\n443\n553\n\n\nGrowth %\n26.2%\n23.1%\n25.0%\n47.5%\n19.8%\n25.3%\n25.0%\n\n\n% Of Revenues ('d')\n22.3%\n24.5%\n26.7%\n26.9%\n27.3%\n27.6%\n27.8%\n28.1%\n\n\nGrowth %\n9.9%\n9.0%\n0.6%\n1.5%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services revenues ('e')\n22.99\n31.88\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n38.7%\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\n\n*C = A x B\n*E = C x D\nSource: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments\nAWS Growth by Data Volume Growth\nAnother key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.\nThe rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nWe projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23% CAGR through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.\n* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently announced a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.\nSource: Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nAll in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.\n\n\n\nAWS Forecasts\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nAWS Market Share\n32.6%\n32.3%\n31.8%\n31.2%\n31.0%\n30.7%\n\n\nAWS Revenues ($ bln)\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nWhile AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.\nSource: Amazon\nAntimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk\nAmazon has been involved in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.\nWhereas in the European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.\nValuation\nThe company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nMore importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the acquisition of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nThe company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.\nTo value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.\n\n\n\nCompany\nEV/EBITDA\n\n\nAmazon\n28.57x\n\n\nAlibaba (BABA)\n21.14x\n\n\nMicrosoft\n25.89x\n\n\nGoogle\n22.46x\n\n\nAverage\n24.52x\n\n\n\nSource: SeekingAlpha\nThe revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.\n\n\n\nAmazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nOnline stores\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPhysical stores\n17.22\n17.19\n16.23\n17.40\n18.55\n19.38\n\n\nGrowth %\n196.9%\n-0.2%\n-5.6%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\nSubscription services\n14.17\n19.21\n25.21\n34.67\n47.68\n65.58\n\n\nGrowth %\n45.8%\n35.6%\n31.2%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n\n\nAWS\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\nOther\n10.11\n14.09\n21.45\n31.27\n45.60\n66.48\n\n\nGrowth %\n117.4%\n39.4%\n52.2%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n\n\nTotal\n232.9\n280.53\n386.07\n447.0\n545.9\n669.1\n\n\nTotal Growth %\n30.9%\n20.5%\n37.6%\n15.8%\n22.1%\n22.6%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nBased on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.\nSource: Khaveen Investments\nVerdict\nIn conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5790183,"gmtCreate":1631077802455,"gmtModify":1631891625356,"authorId":3581681339318837,"author":{"id":3581681339318837,"idStr":"3581681339318837","authorId":3581681339318837,"name":"Mama123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7f57802d09afb13f2149178c4f099b0","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":880442106,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Done","text":"Done","html":"Done"},{"id":5789943,"gmtCreate":1631076371801,"gmtModify":1631891625345,"authorId":3577534747443372,"author":{"id":3577534747443372,"idStr":"3577534747443372","authorId":3577534747443372,"name":"LMC90","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":880442106,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"👍","text":"👍","html":"👍"},{"id":5789941,"gmtCreate":1631076365077,"gmtModify":1631891625335,"authorId":3573733606753390,"author":{"id":3573733606753390,"idStr":"3573733606753390","authorId":3573733606753390,"name":"OldCat","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":880442106,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"okay","text":"okay","html":"okay"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":880446483,"gmtCreate":1631076174542,"gmtModify":1631892379224,"author":{"id":"3579516715925048","authorId":"3579516715925048","name":"lee1234","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1a0ecabeae2d32250fce1eb7e612d3d","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3579516715925048","authorIdStr":"3579516715925048"},"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880446483","repostId":1143120804,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143120804","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631072080,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143120804?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 11:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143120804","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth ra","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li> <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li> <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li> <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年收入增长超出我们预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍有望从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用DCF分析修改了估值，从3,358.73美元获得了4,303.18美元的新目标价。</li></ul>4kodiak/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</blockquote> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.<blockquote>自我们上次报道以来，亚马逊公司(AMZN)的股价已上涨26%，超出了我们24.5%的收入增长预期，并在2020年底上涨了37.6%，其在线零售业务增长了40%，达到近2000亿美元，第三方服务800亿美元。在本次分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和AWS。</blockquote> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.<blockquote>尽管第二季度网上商店销售额增长疲软13%，第三季度同比指引中点疲软13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力。亚马逊已确立市场地位的在线零售。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到2023年，电子商务的份额将从2020年的18%达到22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、作为忠实客户的庞大Prime会员基础以及坚实的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，正如其与第三方卖家的电子商务市场的崛起所证明的那样。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，持续致力于增长并以不断增长的数据量为基础。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth<blockquote>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</blockquote> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.<blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，加速了向电子商务的采用。然而，尽管2021年第二季度在线商店增长同比放缓13%，而第一季度为41%，但我们相信该公司将继续受益于电子商务采用率不断上升的长期推动力。</blockquote> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.<blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向在线购买，电子商务销售额的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将反弹7.2%。因此，2021年电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%实现正常化增长，渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = C x A<blockquote>*B=C x A</blockquote> Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.<blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争优势。更具体地说，很难在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上赢得公司的支持。显然，该公司的Prime会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司具有强大的吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也推动消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Backlinko<blockquote>资料来源：Backlinko</blockquote> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>除了Prime会员之外，该公司还能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，自2017年以来新增卖家330万人，即每天3,718人。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已确立了自己作为市场主导者的地位，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于第二接近的竞争对手。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Marketing Charts<blockquote>资料来源：营销图表</blockquote> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>如下表所示，其在不同产品类别和市场中的市场领导地位相当广泛。例如，其消费品和消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务总销售额的50.2%，占零售总额的26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: eMarketer<blockquote>资料来源：eMarketer</blockquote> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.<blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌(GOOG)和苹果(AAPL)，并继续通过新一代产品和软件更新来开发该产品。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据Echo产品系列103美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为39.4亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.<blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的不断增长，我们预计这一产品广度将继续扩大，并通过产品多样性为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.<blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有成熟的客户群和忠诚的Prime会员生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛的市场领导地位和广泛的产品广度的庞大卖家基础，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店增长是基于我们对其市场份额的预期（基于全球电子商务销售额的5年平均值）为4.5%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>零售销售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>16.2%<blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.9%<blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.3%<blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11.5%<blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.4%<blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.8%<blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.0%<blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入('d')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>91.43<blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></td> <td>108.35<blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>18.5%<blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额('e')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.0%<blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.1%<blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.2%<blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.6%<blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = A x C<blockquote>*B=A x C</blockquote> *D = B x E<blockquote>*D=B x E</blockquote> Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The Rise of Third-party Seller Services<blockquote>第三方卖家服务的兴起</blockquote> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.<blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和运输业务，这已成为一条难以逾越的护城河，很少有其他公司拥有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要送货提供商合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供的计划使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单。</blockquote> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.<blockquote>通过亚马逊物流（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的运营中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金以及相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、货件跟踪和报告。</blockquote> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.<blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更大的灵活性和控制力、更强大的品牌影响力和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的比例不断上升，达到总销售额的62%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: FourWeekMBA<blockquote>资料来源：FourWeekMBA</blockquote> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.<blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和运输网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和UPS竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其交付网络以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国运送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: WebFX<blockquote>来源：WebFX</blockquote> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.<blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，即将于2021年在密苏里州开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输大型客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020年，该公司宣布了7个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州600,000平方英尺的设施、田纳西州855,000平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州625,000平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CNBC<blockquote>资料来源：CNBC</blockquote> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.<blockquote>总体而言，这些都是该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面的优势的因素之一。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数人或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，公司的计划扩张将继续增强其物流网络并保持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista<blockquote>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</blockquote> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.<blockquote>我们预测了该公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，亚马逊的第三方商品销售总额预计将在过去5年的平均增长率为9%。此外，我们还预测，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的27.3%增长1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的60%至75%之间，低于AWS的80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率37%由于与占总销售额60%的销售成本相关的高成本。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额('b')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.6%<blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.5%<blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.4%<blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.0%<blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.9%<blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.5%<blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.9%<blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21%<blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11%<blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></td> <td>16%<blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊商城）GMV('c')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>103<blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></td> <td>130<blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></td> <td>160<blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></td> <td>200<blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></td> <td>295<blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></td> <td>353<blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></td> <td>443<blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></td> <td>553<blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>26.2%<blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>23.1%<blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.5%<blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.8%<blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.3%<blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>% Of Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>佔收入百分比（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.3%<blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>24.5%<blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.7%<blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.9%<blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.3%<blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.8%<blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>28.1%<blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9.9%<blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9.0%<blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>0.6%<blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.5%<blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.99<blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.88<blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>38.7%<blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> *C = A x B<blockquote>*C=A × B</blockquote> *E = C x D<blockquote>*E=C x D</blockquote> Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth<blockquote>AWS按数据量增长增长</blockquote> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.<blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有Netflix(NFLX)、Verizon(VZ)、Capital One(COF)、麦当劳(MCD)等著名大客户。2020年AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，占据云基础设施市场31.8%的市场份额。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已发展成为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软(MSFT)和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.<blockquote>到2025年，全球数据量将增长23%，这支撑了云基础设施市场的快速增长，因为随着数据分析、5G和物联网的兴起，世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.<blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长基于到2025年数据量以23%的CAGR增长，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>*A=B x C资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.<blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS，AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，例如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，以构建基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用区，并计划再推出15个可用区来支持其云增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Canalys、Khaveen投资</blockquote> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.<blockquote>总而言之，我们基于市场份额预测假设来预测AWS的收入增长，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢削弱，但在利用AWS的稳固大客户关系的支持下仍保持其市场领先地位。根据到2023年30.7%的市场份额预测，我们预计AWS收入将增长至815亿美元。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>AWS Forecasts<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>AWS预测</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Market Share<blockquote><tr><td>AWS市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>32.6%<blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.3%<blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.8%<blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.0%<blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>30.7%<blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><tr><td>AWS收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.<blockquote>虽然AWS仅占其总收入的11%，但与其他公司部门的2.8%相比，其29%的高利润率使AWS在2020年占营业收入的59%，这凸显了AWS对其利润的重要性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk<blockquote>反垄断和数据隐私罚款风险</blockquote> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.<blockquote>民主党的报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家那里获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为40%。由于卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取额外费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，由众议院议员组成的两党小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司在一系列广泛的反垄断改革下对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.<blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊遭受了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临8.88亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反了欧盟的通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR允许罚款高达亚马逊收入的4%，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊2020年213亿美元收入的4.2%。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.<blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其利润率不断上升，因为由于其利润率更高的云业务的卓越增长，其净利润率也有所上升。AWS部门的营业利润率高达29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为2.8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.<blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有良好且强大的现金产生能力，过去5年的平均自由现金流利润率为3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购Whole Foods，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于利润率的上升，因为其利润更高的AWS业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.<blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其偿还债务的强大能力。2020年其净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着AWS的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去5年中从32倍稳步上升。</blockquote> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.<blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了DCF估值，因为该公司过去拥有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到的行业平均EV/EBITDA为27.64倍，如下表所示。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Company<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>公司</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>EV/EBITDA<blockquote><td>EV/EBITDA</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>28.57x<blockquote><td>28.57 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Alibaba (BABA)<blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（父亲）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21.14x<blockquote><td>21.14 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Microsoft<blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.89x<blockquote><td>25.89 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Google<blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.46x<blockquote><td>22.46 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Average<blockquote><tr><td>均值</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>24.52x<blockquote><td>24.52 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: SeekingAlpha<blockquote>来源：SeekingAlpha</blockquote> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.<blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS和其他的收入细分总结如下。网上商店预测源自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售额增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场中的第三方卖家GMV份额，并假设其从佣金和相关费用中获得%的收入。基于不断增长的数据量预测，AWS收入来自云市场增长。其他细分市场基于其平均3年增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，并从2027年的12.3%逐步下调，到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务和云计算市场将更加成熟。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Online stores<blockquote><tr><td>在线商店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Physical stores<blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>17.22<blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.19<blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></td> <td>16.23<blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.40<blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></td> <td>18.55<blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.38<blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>196.9%<blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-0.2%<blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-5.6%<blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Subscription services<blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>14.17<blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.21<blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.21<blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.67<blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.68<blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></td> <td>65.58<blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.6%<blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS<blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Other<blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>10.11<blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.09<blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.45<blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.27<blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.60<blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.48<blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>117.4%<blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.4%<blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>52.2%<blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total<blockquote><tr><td>总的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>232.9<blockquote><td>232.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.53<blockquote><td>280.53</td></blockquote></td> <td>386.07<blockquote><td>386.07</td></blockquote></td> <td>447.0<blockquote><td>447.0</td></blockquote></td> <td>545.9<blockquote><td>545.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>669.1<blockquote><td>669.1</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>总增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>30.9%<blockquote><td>30.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.5%<blockquote><td>20.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.6%<blockquote><td>37.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.8%<blockquote><td>15.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.1%<blockquote><td>22.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.6%<blockquote><td>22.6%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.<blockquote>基于12.7%的贴现率（公司的WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为36.9%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：卡文投资</blockquote> Verdict<blockquote>裁决</blockquote> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.<blockquote>总之，我们分析了该公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和AWS。虽然加速增长最终结束，但作为电子商务领域成熟且占主导地位的市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为转向电子商务，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比预计将继续上升，预计到2023年将达到22%。该公司的Prime会员为其提供了大约占美国人口一半的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和运输网络，亚马逊FBA在其在线市场上看到第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户有着密切的关系，管理层也不断致力于满足该细分市场不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预计2021年增长正常化，但我们认为其前景继续受到电子商务和云计算市场不断增长的提振，并将我们的增长率预测修正为2021年的15.8%，随后修正为2020年的22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为购买目标价格为$4,363.96.</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-09-08 11:34\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li> <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li> <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li> <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年收入增长超出我们预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍有望从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用DCF分析修改了估值，从3,358.73美元获得了4,303.18美元的新目标价。</li></ul>4kodiak/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</blockquote> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.<blockquote>自我们上次报道以来，亚马逊公司(AMZN)的股价已上涨26%，超出了我们24.5%的收入增长预期，并在2020年底上涨了37.6%，其在线零售业务增长了40%，达到近2000亿美元，第三方服务800亿美元。在本次分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和AWS。</blockquote> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.<blockquote>尽管第二季度网上商店销售额增长疲软13%，第三季度同比指引中点疲软13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力。亚马逊已确立市场地位的在线零售。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到2023年，电子商务的份额将从2020年的18%达到22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、作为忠实客户的庞大Prime会员基础以及坚实的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，正如其与第三方卖家的电子商务市场的崛起所证明的那样。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，持续致力于增长并以不断增长的数据量为基础。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth<blockquote>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</blockquote> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.<blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，加速了向电子商务的采用。然而，尽管2021年第二季度在线商店增长同比放缓13%，而第一季度为41%，但我们相信该公司将继续受益于电子商务采用率不断上升的长期推动力。</blockquote> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.<blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向在线购买，电子商务销售额的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将反弹7.2%。因此，2021年电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%实现正常化增长，渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = C x A<blockquote>*B=C x A</blockquote> Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.<blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争优势。更具体地说，很难在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上赢得公司的支持。显然，该公司的Prime会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司具有强大的吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也推动消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Backlinko<blockquote>资料来源：Backlinko</blockquote> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>除了Prime会员之外，该公司还能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，自2017年以来新增卖家330万人，即每天3,718人。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已确立了自己作为市场主导者的地位，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于第二接近的竞争对手。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Marketing Charts<blockquote>资料来源：营销图表</blockquote> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>如下表所示，其在不同产品类别和市场中的市场领导地位相当广泛。例如，其消费品和消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务总销售额的50.2%，占零售总额的26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: eMarketer<blockquote>资料来源：eMarketer</blockquote> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.<blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌(GOOG)和苹果(AAPL)，并继续通过新一代产品和软件更新来开发该产品。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据Echo产品系列103美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为39.4亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.<blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的不断增长，我们预计这一产品广度将继续扩大，并通过产品多样性为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.<blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有成熟的客户群和忠诚的Prime会员生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛的市场领导地位和广泛的产品广度的庞大卖家基础，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店增长是基于我们对其市场份额的预期（基于全球电子商务销售额的5年平均值）为4.5%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>零售销售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>16.2%<blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.9%<blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.3%<blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11.5%<blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.4%<blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.8%<blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.0%<blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入('d')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>91.43<blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></td> <td>108.35<blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>18.5%<blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额('e')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.0%<blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.1%<blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.2%<blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.6%<blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = A x C<blockquote>*B=A x C</blockquote> *D = B x E<blockquote>*D=B x E</blockquote> Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The Rise of Third-party Seller Services<blockquote>第三方卖家服务的兴起</blockquote> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.<blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和运输业务，这已成为一条难以逾越的护城河，很少有其他公司拥有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要送货提供商合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供的计划使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单。</blockquote> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.<blockquote>通过亚马逊物流（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的运营中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金以及相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、货件跟踪和报告。</blockquote> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.<blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更大的灵活性和控制力、更强大的品牌影响力和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的比例不断上升，达到总销售额的62%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: FourWeekMBA<blockquote>资料来源：FourWeekMBA</blockquote> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.<blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和运输网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和UPS竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其交付网络以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国运送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: WebFX<blockquote>来源：WebFX</blockquote> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.<blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，即将于2021年在密苏里州开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输大型客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020年，该公司宣布了7个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州600,000平方英尺的设施、田纳西州855,000平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州625,000平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CNBC<blockquote>资料来源：CNBC</blockquote> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.<blockquote>总体而言，这些都是该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面的优势的因素之一。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数人或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，公司的计划扩张将继续增强其物流网络并保持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista<blockquote>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</blockquote> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.<blockquote>我们预测了该公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，亚马逊的第三方商品销售总额预计将在过去5年的平均增长率为9%。此外，我们还预测，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的27.3%增长1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的60%至75%之间，低于AWS的80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率37%由于与占总销售额60%的销售成本相关的高成本。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额('b')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.6%<blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.5%<blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.4%<blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.0%<blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.9%<blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.5%<blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.9%<blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21%<blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11%<blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></td> <td>16%<blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊商城）GMV('c')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>103<blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></td> <td>130<blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></td> <td>160<blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></td> <td>200<blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></td> <td>295<blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></td> <td>353<blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></td> <td>443<blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></td> <td>553<blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>26.2%<blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>23.1%<blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.5%<blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.8%<blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.3%<blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>% Of Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>佔收入百分比（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.3%<blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>24.5%<blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.7%<blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.9%<blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.3%<blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.8%<blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>28.1%<blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9.9%<blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9.0%<blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>0.6%<blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.5%<blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.99<blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.88<blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>38.7%<blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> *C = A x B<blockquote>*C=A × B</blockquote> *E = C x D<blockquote>*E=C x D</blockquote> Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth<blockquote>AWS按数据量增长增长</blockquote> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.<blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有Netflix(NFLX)、Verizon(VZ)、Capital One(COF)、麦当劳(MCD)等著名大客户。2020年AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，占据云基础设施市场31.8%的市场份额。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已发展成为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软(MSFT)和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.<blockquote>到2025年，全球数据量将增长23%，这支撑了云基础设施市场的快速增长，因为随着数据分析、5G和物联网的兴起，世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.<blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长基于到2025年数据量以23%的CAGR增长，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>*A=B x C资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.<blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS，AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，例如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，以构建基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用区，并计划再推出15个可用区来支持其云增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Canalys、Khaveen投资</blockquote> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.<blockquote>总而言之，我们基于市场份额预测假设来预测AWS的收入增长，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢削弱，但在利用AWS的稳固大客户关系的支持下仍保持其市场领先地位。根据到2023年30.7%的市场份额预测，我们预计AWS收入将增长至815亿美元。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>AWS Forecasts<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>AWS预测</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Market Share<blockquote><tr><td>AWS市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>32.6%<blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.3%<blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.8%<blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.0%<blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>30.7%<blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><tr><td>AWS收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.<blockquote>虽然AWS仅占其总收入的11%，但与其他公司部门的2.8%相比，其29%的高利润率使AWS在2020年占营业收入的59%，这凸显了AWS对其利润的重要性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk<blockquote>反垄断和数据隐私罚款风险</blockquote> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.<blockquote>民主党的报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家那里获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为40%。由于卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取额外费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，由众议院议员组成的两党小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司在一系列广泛的反垄断改革下对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.<blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊遭受了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临8.88亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反了欧盟的通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR允许罚款高达亚马逊收入的4%，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊2020年213亿美元收入的4.2%。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.<blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其利润率不断上升，因为由于其利润率更高的云业务的卓越增长，其净利润率也有所上升。AWS部门的营业利润率高达29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为2.8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.<blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有良好且强大的现金产生能力，过去5年的平均自由现金流利润率为3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购Whole Foods，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于利润率的上升，因为其利润更高的AWS业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.<blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其偿还债务的强大能力。2020年其净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着AWS的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去5年中从32倍稳步上升。</blockquote> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.<blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了DCF估值，因为该公司过去拥有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到的行业平均EV/EBITDA为27.64倍，如下表所示。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Company<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>公司</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>EV/EBITDA<blockquote><td>EV/EBITDA</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>28.57x<blockquote><td>28.57 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Alibaba (BABA)<blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（父亲）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21.14x<blockquote><td>21.14 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Microsoft<blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.89x<blockquote><td>25.89 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Google<blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.46x<blockquote><td>22.46 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Average<blockquote><tr><td>均值</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>24.52x<blockquote><td>24.52 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: SeekingAlpha<blockquote>来源：SeekingAlpha</blockquote> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.<blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS和其他的收入细分总结如下。网上商店预测源自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售额增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场中的第三方卖家GMV份额，并假设其从佣金和相关费用中获得%的收入。基于不断增长的数据量预测，AWS收入来自云市场增长。其他细分市场基于其平均3年增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，并从2027年的12.3%逐步下调，到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务和云计算市场将更加成熟。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Online stores<blockquote><tr><td>在线商店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Physical stores<blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>17.22<blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.19<blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></td> <td>16.23<blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.40<blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></td> <td>18.55<blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.38<blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>196.9%<blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-0.2%<blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-5.6%<blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Subscription services<blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>14.17<blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.21<blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.21<blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.67<blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.68<blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></td> <td>65.58<blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.6%<blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS<blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Other<blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>10.11<blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.09<blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.45<blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.27<blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.60<blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.48<blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>117.4%<blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.4%<blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>52.2%<blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total<blockquote><tr><td>总的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>232.9<blockquote><td>232.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.53<blockquote><td>280.53</td></blockquote></td> <td>386.07<blockquote><td>386.07</td></blockquote></td> <td>447.0<blockquote><td>447.0</td></blockquote></td> <td>545.9<blockquote><td>545.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>669.1<blockquote><td>669.1</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>总增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>30.9%<blockquote><td>30.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.5%<blockquote><td>20.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.6%<blockquote><td>37.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.8%<blockquote><td>15.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.1%<blockquote><td>22.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.6%<blockquote><td>22.6%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.<blockquote>基于12.7%的贴现率（公司的WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为36.9%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：卡文投资</blockquote> Verdict<blockquote>裁决</blockquote> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.<blockquote>总之，我们分析了该公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和AWS。虽然加速增长最终结束，但作为电子商务领域成熟且占主导地位的市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为转向电子商务，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比预计将继续上升，预计到2023年将达到22%。该公司的Prime会员为其提供了大约占美国人口一半的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和运输网络，亚马逊FBA在其在线市场上看到第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户有着密切的关系，管理层也不断致力于满足该细分市场不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预计2021年增长正常化，但我们认为其前景继续受到电子商务和云计算市场不断增长的提振，并将我们的增长率预测修正为2021年的15.8%，随后修正为2020年的22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为购买目标价格为$4,363.96.</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143120804","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.\nWhile growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.\nAWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.\nWe revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.\n\n4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nSince our previous coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.\nDespite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3 guidance of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.\nSource: Amazon\nE-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth\nAmazon's online store sales have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.\nAccording to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to reach 22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.\n\n\n\nGlobal E-Commerce Market ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Global Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\n\n* B = C x A\nSource: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments\nAmazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.\nSource: Backlinko\nIn addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently attract sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.\nSource: Marketing Charts\nIts market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer & consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel & accessories, books music & video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.\nSource: eMarketer\nAmong the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having purchased electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker units and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average price of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.\nAll in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln products excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.\nThus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.\n\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\nGrowth %\n16.2%\n20.9%\n17.3%\n11.5%\n32.4%\n2.8%\n8.1%\n10.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')\n91.43\n108.35\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n18.5%\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')\n5.0%\n4.5%\n4.1%\n4.2%\n4.6%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n\n\n\n* B = A x C\n*D = B x E\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThe Rise of Third-party Seller Services\nAnother major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.\nWith Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.\nSelling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately provides more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising share of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.\nSource: FourWeekMBA\nThe chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it enhances its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business delivered 1.9 bln packages in the US.\nSource: WebFX\nMoreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming opening of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it announced plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.\nSource: CNBC\nOverall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has free Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.\nSource: Statista\nWe forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which represents 60% of its total sales.\n\n\n\nThird-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nGlobal Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Third Party Market Share ('b')\n5.6%\n5.5%\n5.4%\n6.0%\n6.9%\n7.5%\n8.1%\n8.9%\n\n\nGrowth %\n21%\n-2%\n-2%\n11%\n16%\n9%\n9%\n9%\n\n\nThird-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')\n103\n130\n160\n200\n295\n353\n443\n553\n\n\nGrowth %\n26.2%\n23.1%\n25.0%\n47.5%\n19.8%\n25.3%\n25.0%\n\n\n% Of Revenues ('d')\n22.3%\n24.5%\n26.7%\n26.9%\n27.3%\n27.6%\n27.8%\n28.1%\n\n\nGrowth %\n9.9%\n9.0%\n0.6%\n1.5%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services revenues ('e')\n22.99\n31.88\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n38.7%\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\n\n*C = A x B\n*E = C x D\nSource: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments\nAWS Growth by Data Volume Growth\nAnother key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.\nThe rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nWe projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23% CAGR through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.\n* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently announced a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.\nSource: Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nAll in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.\n\n\n\nAWS Forecasts\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nAWS Market Share\n32.6%\n32.3%\n31.8%\n31.2%\n31.0%\n30.7%\n\n\nAWS Revenues ($ bln)\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nWhile AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.\nSource: Amazon\nAntimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk\nAmazon has been involved in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.\nWhereas in the European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.\nValuation\nThe company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nMore importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the acquisition of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nThe company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.\nTo value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.\n\n\n\nCompany\nEV/EBITDA\n\n\nAmazon\n28.57x\n\n\nAlibaba (BABA)\n21.14x\n\n\nMicrosoft\n25.89x\n\n\nGoogle\n22.46x\n\n\nAverage\n24.52x\n\n\n\nSource: SeekingAlpha\nThe revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.\n\n\n\nAmazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nOnline stores\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPhysical stores\n17.22\n17.19\n16.23\n17.40\n18.55\n19.38\n\n\nGrowth %\n196.9%\n-0.2%\n-5.6%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\nSubscription services\n14.17\n19.21\n25.21\n34.67\n47.68\n65.58\n\n\nGrowth %\n45.8%\n35.6%\n31.2%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n\n\nAWS\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\nOther\n10.11\n14.09\n21.45\n31.27\n45.60\n66.48\n\n\nGrowth %\n117.4%\n39.4%\n52.2%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n\n\nTotal\n232.9\n280.53\n386.07\n447.0\n545.9\n669.1\n\n\nTotal Growth %\n30.9%\n20.5%\n37.6%\n15.8%\n22.1%\n22.6%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nBased on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.\nSource: Khaveen Investments\nVerdict\nIn conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5790275,"gmtCreate":1631078548487,"gmtModify":1634805584905,"authorId":3584329348613702,"author":{"id":3584329348613702,"idStr":"3584329348613702","authorId":3584329348613702,"name":"4368e193","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":880446483,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Okay","text":"Okay","html":"Okay"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":880449404,"gmtCreate":1631075882808,"gmtModify":1632884770535,"author":{"id":"3581937910767045","authorId":"3581937910767045","name":"Pluto891","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9963f2ef3d3ad2aff28340461d3d6d0","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581937910767045","authorIdStr":"3581937910767045"},"htmlText":"abandoning their bricks and mortar biz?","listText":"abandoning their bricks and mortar biz?","text":"abandoning their bricks and mortar biz?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880449404","repostId":1143120804,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143120804","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631072080,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143120804?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 11:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143120804","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth ra","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li> <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li> <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li> <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年收入增长超出我们预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍有望从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用DCF分析修改了估值，从3,358.73美元获得了4,303.18美元的新目标价。</li></ul>4kodiak/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</blockquote> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.<blockquote>自我们上次报道以来，亚马逊公司(AMZN)的股价已上涨26%，超出了我们24.5%的收入增长预期，并在2020年底上涨了37.6%，其在线零售业务增长了40%，达到近2000亿美元，第三方服务800亿美元。在本次分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和AWS。</blockquote> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.<blockquote>尽管第二季度网上商店销售额增长疲软13%，第三季度同比指引中点疲软13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力。亚马逊已确立市场地位的在线零售。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到2023年，电子商务的份额将从2020年的18%达到22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、作为忠实客户的庞大Prime会员基础以及坚实的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，正如其与第三方卖家的电子商务市场的崛起所证明的那样。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，持续致力于增长并以不断增长的数据量为基础。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth<blockquote>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</blockquote> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.<blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，加速了向电子商务的采用。然而，尽管2021年第二季度在线商店增长同比放缓13%，而第一季度为41%，但我们相信该公司将继续受益于电子商务采用率不断上升的长期推动力。</blockquote> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.<blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向在线购买，电子商务销售额的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将反弹7.2%。因此，2021年电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%实现正常化增长，渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = C x A<blockquote>*B=C x A</blockquote> Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.<blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争优势。更具体地说，很难在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上赢得公司的支持。显然，该公司的Prime会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司具有强大的吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也推动消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Backlinko<blockquote>资料来源：Backlinko</blockquote> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>除了Prime会员之外，该公司还能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，自2017年以来新增卖家330万人，即每天3,718人。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已确立了自己作为市场主导者的地位，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于第二接近的竞争对手。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Marketing Charts<blockquote>资料来源：营销图表</blockquote> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>如下表所示，其在不同产品类别和市场中的市场领导地位相当广泛。例如，其消费品和消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务总销售额的50.2%，占零售总额的26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: eMarketer<blockquote>资料来源：eMarketer</blockquote> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.<blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌(GOOG)和苹果(AAPL)，并继续通过新一代产品和软件更新来开发该产品。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据Echo产品系列103美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为39.4亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.<blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的不断增长，我们预计这一产品广度将继续扩大，并通过产品多样性为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.<blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有成熟的客户群和忠诚的Prime会员生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛的市场领导地位和广泛的产品广度的庞大卖家基础，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店增长是基于我们对其市场份额的预期（基于全球电子商务销售额的5年平均值）为4.5%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>零售销售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>16.2%<blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.9%<blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.3%<blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11.5%<blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.4%<blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.8%<blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.0%<blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入('d')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>91.43<blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></td> <td>108.35<blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>18.5%<blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额('e')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.0%<blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.1%<blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.2%<blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.6%<blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = A x C<blockquote>*B=A x C</blockquote> *D = B x E<blockquote>*D=B x E</blockquote> Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The Rise of Third-party Seller Services<blockquote>第三方卖家服务的兴起</blockquote> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.<blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和运输业务，这已成为一条难以逾越的护城河，很少有其他公司拥有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要送货提供商合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供的计划使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单。</blockquote> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.<blockquote>通过亚马逊物流（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的运营中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金以及相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、货件跟踪和报告。</blockquote> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.<blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更大的灵活性和控制力、更强大的品牌影响力和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的比例不断上升，达到总销售额的62%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: FourWeekMBA<blockquote>资料来源：FourWeekMBA</blockquote> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.<blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和运输网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和UPS竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其交付网络以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国运送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: WebFX<blockquote>来源：WebFX</blockquote> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.<blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，即将于2021年在密苏里州开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输大型客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020年，该公司宣布了7个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州600,000平方英尺的设施、田纳西州855,000平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州625,000平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CNBC<blockquote>资料来源：CNBC</blockquote> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.<blockquote>总体而言，这些都是该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面的优势的因素之一。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数人或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，公司的计划扩张将继续增强其物流网络并保持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista<blockquote>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</blockquote> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.<blockquote>我们预测了该公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，亚马逊的第三方商品销售总额预计将在过去5年的平均增长率为9%。此外，我们还预测，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的27.3%增长1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的60%至75%之间，低于AWS的80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率37%由于与占总销售额60%的销售成本相关的高成本。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额('b')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.6%<blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.5%<blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.4%<blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.0%<blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.9%<blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.5%<blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.9%<blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21%<blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11%<blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></td> <td>16%<blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊商城）GMV('c')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>103<blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></td> <td>130<blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></td> <td>160<blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></td> <td>200<blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></td> <td>295<blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></td> <td>353<blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></td> <td>443<blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></td> <td>553<blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>26.2%<blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>23.1%<blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.5%<blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.8%<blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.3%<blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>% Of Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>佔收入百分比（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.3%<blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>24.5%<blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.7%<blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.9%<blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.3%<blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.8%<blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>28.1%<blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9.9%<blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9.0%<blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>0.6%<blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.5%<blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.99<blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.88<blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>38.7%<blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> *C = A x B<blockquote>*C=A × B</blockquote> *E = C x D<blockquote>*E=C x D</blockquote> Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth<blockquote>AWS按数据量增长增长</blockquote> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.<blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有Netflix(NFLX)、Verizon(VZ)、Capital One(COF)、麦当劳(MCD)等著名大客户。2020年AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，占据云基础设施市场31.8%的市场份额。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已发展成为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软(MSFT)和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.<blockquote>到2025年，全球数据量将增长23%，这支撑了云基础设施市场的快速增长，因为随着数据分析、5G和物联网的兴起，世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.<blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长基于到2025年数据量以23%的CAGR增长，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>*A=B x C资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.<blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS，AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，例如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，以构建基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用区，并计划再推出15个可用区来支持其云增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Canalys、Khaveen投资</blockquote> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.<blockquote>总而言之，我们基于市场份额预测假设来预测AWS的收入增长，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢削弱，但在利用AWS的稳固大客户关系的支持下仍保持其市场领先地位。根据到2023年30.7%的市场份额预测，我们预计AWS收入将增长至815亿美元。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>AWS Forecasts<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>AWS预测</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Market Share<blockquote><tr><td>AWS市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>32.6%<blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.3%<blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.8%<blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.0%<blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>30.7%<blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><tr><td>AWS收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.<blockquote>虽然AWS仅占其总收入的11%，但与其他公司部门的2.8%相比，其29%的高利润率使AWS在2020年占营业收入的59%，这凸显了AWS对其利润的重要性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk<blockquote>反垄断和数据隐私罚款风险</blockquote> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.<blockquote>民主党的报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家那里获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为40%。由于卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取额外费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，由众议院议员组成的两党小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司在一系列广泛的反垄断改革下对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.<blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊遭受了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临8.88亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反了欧盟的通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR允许罚款高达亚马逊收入的4%，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊2020年213亿美元收入的4.2%。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.<blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其利润率不断上升，因为由于其利润率更高的云业务的卓越增长，其净利润率也有所上升。AWS部门的营业利润率高达29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为2.8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.<blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有良好且强大的现金产生能力，过去5年的平均自由现金流利润率为3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购Whole Foods，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于利润率的上升，因为其利润更高的AWS业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.<blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其偿还债务的强大能力。2020年其净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着AWS的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去5年中从32倍稳步上升。</blockquote> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.<blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了DCF估值，因为该公司过去拥有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到的行业平均EV/EBITDA为27.64倍，如下表所示。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Company<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>公司</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>EV/EBITDA<blockquote><td>EV/EBITDA</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>28.57x<blockquote><td>28.57 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Alibaba (BABA)<blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（父亲）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21.14x<blockquote><td>21.14 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Microsoft<blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.89x<blockquote><td>25.89 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Google<blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.46x<blockquote><td>22.46 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Average<blockquote><tr><td>均值</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>24.52x<blockquote><td>24.52 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: SeekingAlpha<blockquote>来源：SeekingAlpha</blockquote> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.<blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS和其他的收入细分总结如下。网上商店预测源自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售额增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场中的第三方卖家GMV份额，并假设其从佣金和相关费用中获得%的收入。基于不断增长的数据量预测，AWS收入来自云市场增长。其他细分市场基于其平均3年增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，并从2027年的12.3%逐步下调，到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务和云计算市场将更加成熟。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Online stores<blockquote><tr><td>在线商店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Physical stores<blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>17.22<blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.19<blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></td> <td>16.23<blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.40<blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></td> <td>18.55<blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.38<blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>196.9%<blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-0.2%<blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-5.6%<blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Subscription services<blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>14.17<blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.21<blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.21<blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.67<blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.68<blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></td> <td>65.58<blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.6%<blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS<blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Other<blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>10.11<blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.09<blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.45<blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.27<blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.60<blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.48<blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>117.4%<blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.4%<blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>52.2%<blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total<blockquote><tr><td>总的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>232.9<blockquote><td>232.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.53<blockquote><td>280.53</td></blockquote></td> <td>386.07<blockquote><td>386.07</td></blockquote></td> <td>447.0<blockquote><td>447.0</td></blockquote></td> <td>545.9<blockquote><td>545.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>669.1<blockquote><td>669.1</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>总增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>30.9%<blockquote><td>30.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.5%<blockquote><td>20.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.6%<blockquote><td>37.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.8%<blockquote><td>15.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.1%<blockquote><td>22.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.6%<blockquote><td>22.6%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.<blockquote>基于12.7%的贴现率（公司的WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为36.9%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：卡文投资</blockquote> Verdict<blockquote>裁决</blockquote> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.<blockquote>总之，我们分析了该公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和AWS。虽然加速增长最终结束，但作为电子商务领域成熟且占主导地位的市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为转向电子商务，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比预计将继续上升，预计到2023年将达到22%。该公司的Prime会员为其提供了大约占美国人口一半的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和运输网络，亚马逊FBA在其在线市场上看到第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户有着密切的关系，管理层也不断致力于满足该细分市场不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预计2021年增长正常化，但我们认为其前景继续受到电子商务和云计算市场不断增长的提振，并将我们的增长率预测修正为2021年的15.8%，随后修正为2020年的22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为购买目标价格为$4,363.96.</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-09-08 11:34\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li> <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li> <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li> <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年收入增长超出我们预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍有望从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用DCF分析修改了估值，从3,358.73美元获得了4,303.18美元的新目标价。</li></ul>4kodiak/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</blockquote> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.<blockquote>自我们上次报道以来，亚马逊公司(AMZN)的股价已上涨26%，超出了我们24.5%的收入增长预期，并在2020年底上涨了37.6%，其在线零售业务增长了40%，达到近2000亿美元，第三方服务800亿美元。在本次分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和AWS。</blockquote> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.<blockquote>尽管第二季度网上商店销售额增长疲软13%，第三季度同比指引中点疲软13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力。亚马逊已确立市场地位的在线零售。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到2023年，电子商务的份额将从2020年的18%达到22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、作为忠实客户的庞大Prime会员基础以及坚实的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，正如其与第三方卖家的电子商务市场的崛起所证明的那样。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，持续致力于增长并以不断增长的数据量为基础。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth<blockquote>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</blockquote> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.<blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，加速了向电子商务的采用。然而，尽管2021年第二季度在线商店增长同比放缓13%，而第一季度为41%，但我们相信该公司将继续受益于电子商务采用率不断上升的长期推动力。</blockquote> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.<blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向在线购买，电子商务销售额的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将反弹7.2%。因此，2021年电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%实现正常化增长，渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = C x A<blockquote>*B=C x A</blockquote> Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.<blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争优势。更具体地说，很难在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上赢得公司的支持。显然，该公司的Prime会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司具有强大的吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也推动消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Backlinko<blockquote>资料来源：Backlinko</blockquote> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>除了Prime会员之外，该公司还能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，自2017年以来新增卖家330万人，即每天3,718人。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已确立了自己作为市场主导者的地位，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于第二接近的竞争对手。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Marketing Charts<blockquote>资料来源：营销图表</blockquote> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>如下表所示，其在不同产品类别和市场中的市场领导地位相当广泛。例如，其消费品和消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务总销售额的50.2%，占零售总额的26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: eMarketer<blockquote>资料来源：eMarketer</blockquote> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.<blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌(GOOG)和苹果(AAPL)，并继续通过新一代产品和软件更新来开发该产品。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据Echo产品系列103美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为39.4亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.<blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的不断增长，我们预计这一产品广度将继续扩大，并通过产品多样性为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.<blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有成熟的客户群和忠诚的Prime会员生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛的市场领导地位和广泛的产品广度的庞大卖家基础，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店增长是基于我们对其市场份额的预期（基于全球电子商务销售额的5年平均值）为4.5%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>零售销售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>16.2%<blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.9%<blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.3%<blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11.5%<blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.4%<blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.8%<blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.0%<blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入('d')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>91.43<blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></td> <td>108.35<blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>18.5%<blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额('e')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.0%<blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.1%<blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.2%<blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.6%<blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = A x C<blockquote>*B=A x C</blockquote> *D = B x E<blockquote>*D=B x E</blockquote> Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The Rise of Third-party Seller Services<blockquote>第三方卖家服务的兴起</blockquote> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.<blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和运输业务，这已成为一条难以逾越的护城河，很少有其他公司拥有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要送货提供商合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供的计划使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单。</blockquote> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.<blockquote>通过亚马逊物流（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的运营中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金以及相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、货件跟踪和报告。</blockquote> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.<blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更大的灵活性和控制力、更强大的品牌影响力和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的比例不断上升，达到总销售额的62%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: FourWeekMBA<blockquote>资料来源：FourWeekMBA</blockquote> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.<blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和运输网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和UPS竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其交付网络以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国运送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: WebFX<blockquote>来源：WebFX</blockquote> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.<blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，即将于2021年在密苏里州开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输大型客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020年，该公司宣布了7个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州600,000平方英尺的设施、田纳西州855,000平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州625,000平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CNBC<blockquote>资料来源：CNBC</blockquote> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.<blockquote>总体而言，这些都是该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面的优势的因素之一。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数人或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，公司的计划扩张将继续增强其物流网络并保持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista<blockquote>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</blockquote> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.<blockquote>我们预测了该公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，亚马逊的第三方商品销售总额预计将在过去5年的平均增长率为9%。此外，我们还预测，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的27.3%增长1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的60%至75%之间，低于AWS的80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率37%由于与占总销售额60%的销售成本相关的高成本。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额('b')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.6%<blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.5%<blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.4%<blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.0%<blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.9%<blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.5%<blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.9%<blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21%<blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11%<blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></td> <td>16%<blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊商城）GMV('c')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>103<blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></td> <td>130<blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></td> <td>160<blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></td> <td>200<blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></td> <td>295<blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></td> <td>353<blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></td> <td>443<blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></td> <td>553<blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>26.2%<blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>23.1%<blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.5%<blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.8%<blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.3%<blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>% Of Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>佔收入百分比（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.3%<blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>24.5%<blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.7%<blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.9%<blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.3%<blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.8%<blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>28.1%<blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9.9%<blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9.0%<blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>0.6%<blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.5%<blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.99<blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.88<blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>38.7%<blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> *C = A x B<blockquote>*C=A × B</blockquote> *E = C x D<blockquote>*E=C x D</blockquote> Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth<blockquote>AWS按数据量增长增长</blockquote> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.<blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有Netflix(NFLX)、Verizon(VZ)、Capital One(COF)、麦当劳(MCD)等著名大客户。2020年AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，占据云基础设施市场31.8%的市场份额。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已发展成为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软(MSFT)和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.<blockquote>到2025年，全球数据量将增长23%，这支撑了云基础设施市场的快速增长，因为随着数据分析、5G和物联网的兴起，世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.<blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长基于到2025年数据量以23%的CAGR增长，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>*A=B x C资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.<blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS，AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，例如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，以构建基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用区，并计划再推出15个可用区来支持其云增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Canalys、Khaveen投资</blockquote> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.<blockquote>总而言之，我们基于市场份额预测假设来预测AWS的收入增长，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢削弱，但在利用AWS的稳固大客户关系的支持下仍保持其市场领先地位。根据到2023年30.7%的市场份额预测，我们预计AWS收入将增长至815亿美元。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>AWS Forecasts<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>AWS预测</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Market Share<blockquote><tr><td>AWS市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>32.6%<blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.3%<blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.8%<blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.0%<blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>30.7%<blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><tr><td>AWS收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.<blockquote>虽然AWS仅占其总收入的11%，但与其他公司部门的2.8%相比，其29%的高利润率使AWS在2020年占营业收入的59%，这凸显了AWS对其利润的重要性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk<blockquote>反垄断和数据隐私罚款风险</blockquote> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.<blockquote>民主党的报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家那里获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为40%。由于卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取额外费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，由众议院议员组成的两党小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司在一系列广泛的反垄断改革下对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.<blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊遭受了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临8.88亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反了欧盟的通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR允许罚款高达亚马逊收入的4%，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊2020年213亿美元收入的4.2%。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.<blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其利润率不断上升，因为由于其利润率更高的云业务的卓越增长，其净利润率也有所上升。AWS部门的营业利润率高达29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为2.8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.<blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有良好且强大的现金产生能力，过去5年的平均自由现金流利润率为3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购Whole Foods，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于利润率的上升，因为其利润更高的AWS业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.<blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其偿还债务的强大能力。2020年其净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着AWS的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去5年中从32倍稳步上升。</blockquote> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.<blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了DCF估值，因为该公司过去拥有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到的行业平均EV/EBITDA为27.64倍，如下表所示。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Company<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>公司</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>EV/EBITDA<blockquote><td>EV/EBITDA</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>28.57x<blockquote><td>28.57 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Alibaba (BABA)<blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（父亲）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21.14x<blockquote><td>21.14 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Microsoft<blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.89x<blockquote><td>25.89 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Google<blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.46x<blockquote><td>22.46 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Average<blockquote><tr><td>均值</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>24.52x<blockquote><td>24.52 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: SeekingAlpha<blockquote>来源：SeekingAlpha</blockquote> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.<blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS和其他的收入细分总结如下。网上商店预测源自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售额增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场中的第三方卖家GMV份额，并假设其从佣金和相关费用中获得%的收入。基于不断增长的数据量预测，AWS收入来自云市场增长。其他细分市场基于其平均3年增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，并从2027年的12.3%逐步下调，到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务和云计算市场将更加成熟。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Online stores<blockquote><tr><td>在线商店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Physical stores<blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>17.22<blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.19<blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></td> <td>16.23<blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.40<blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></td> <td>18.55<blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.38<blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>196.9%<blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-0.2%<blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-5.6%<blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Subscription services<blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>14.17<blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.21<blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.21<blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.67<blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.68<blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></td> <td>65.58<blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.6%<blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS<blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Other<blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>10.11<blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.09<blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.45<blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.27<blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.60<blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.48<blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>117.4%<blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.4%<blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>52.2%<blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total<blockquote><tr><td>总的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>232.9<blockquote><td>232.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.53<blockquote><td>280.53</td></blockquote></td> <td>386.07<blockquote><td>386.07</td></blockquote></td> <td>447.0<blockquote><td>447.0</td></blockquote></td> <td>545.9<blockquote><td>545.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>669.1<blockquote><td>669.1</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>总增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>30.9%<blockquote><td>30.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.5%<blockquote><td>20.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.6%<blockquote><td>37.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.8%<blockquote><td>15.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.1%<blockquote><td>22.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.6%<blockquote><td>22.6%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.<blockquote>基于12.7%的贴现率（公司的WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为36.9%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：卡文投资</blockquote> Verdict<blockquote>裁决</blockquote> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.<blockquote>总之，我们分析了该公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和AWS。虽然加速增长最终结束，但作为电子商务领域成熟且占主导地位的市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为转向电子商务，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比预计将继续上升，预计到2023年将达到22%。该公司的Prime会员为其提供了大约占美国人口一半的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和运输网络，亚马逊FBA在其在线市场上看到第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户有着密切的关系，管理层也不断致力于满足该细分市场不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预计2021年增长正常化，但我们认为其前景继续受到电子商务和云计算市场不断增长的提振，并将我们的增长率预测修正为2021年的15.8%，随后修正为2020年的22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为购买目标价格为$4,363.96.</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143120804","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.\nWhile growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.\nAWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.\nWe revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.\n\n4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nSince our previous coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.\nDespite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3 guidance of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.\nSource: Amazon\nE-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth\nAmazon's online store sales have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.\nAccording to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to reach 22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.\n\n\n\nGlobal E-Commerce Market ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Global Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\n\n* B = C x A\nSource: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments\nAmazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.\nSource: Backlinko\nIn addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently attract sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.\nSource: Marketing Charts\nIts market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer & consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel & accessories, books music & video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.\nSource: eMarketer\nAmong the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having purchased electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker units and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average price of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.\nAll in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln products excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.\nThus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.\n\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\nGrowth %\n16.2%\n20.9%\n17.3%\n11.5%\n32.4%\n2.8%\n8.1%\n10.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')\n91.43\n108.35\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n18.5%\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')\n5.0%\n4.5%\n4.1%\n4.2%\n4.6%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n\n\n\n* B = A x C\n*D = B x E\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThe Rise of Third-party Seller Services\nAnother major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.\nWith Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.\nSelling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately provides more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising share of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.\nSource: FourWeekMBA\nThe chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it enhances its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business delivered 1.9 bln packages in the US.\nSource: WebFX\nMoreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming opening of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it announced plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.\nSource: CNBC\nOverall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has free Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.\nSource: Statista\nWe forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which represents 60% of its total sales.\n\n\n\nThird-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nGlobal Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Third Party Market Share ('b')\n5.6%\n5.5%\n5.4%\n6.0%\n6.9%\n7.5%\n8.1%\n8.9%\n\n\nGrowth %\n21%\n-2%\n-2%\n11%\n16%\n9%\n9%\n9%\n\n\nThird-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')\n103\n130\n160\n200\n295\n353\n443\n553\n\n\nGrowth %\n26.2%\n23.1%\n25.0%\n47.5%\n19.8%\n25.3%\n25.0%\n\n\n% Of Revenues ('d')\n22.3%\n24.5%\n26.7%\n26.9%\n27.3%\n27.6%\n27.8%\n28.1%\n\n\nGrowth %\n9.9%\n9.0%\n0.6%\n1.5%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services revenues ('e')\n22.99\n31.88\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n38.7%\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\n\n*C = A x B\n*E = C x D\nSource: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments\nAWS Growth by Data Volume Growth\nAnother key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.\nThe rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nWe projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23% CAGR through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.\n* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently announced a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.\nSource: Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nAll in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.\n\n\n\nAWS Forecasts\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nAWS Market Share\n32.6%\n32.3%\n31.8%\n31.2%\n31.0%\n30.7%\n\n\nAWS Revenues ($ bln)\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nWhile AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.\nSource: Amazon\nAntimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk\nAmazon has been involved in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.\nWhereas in the European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.\nValuation\nThe company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nMore importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the acquisition of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nThe company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.\nTo value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.\n\n\n\nCompany\nEV/EBITDA\n\n\nAmazon\n28.57x\n\n\nAlibaba (BABA)\n21.14x\n\n\nMicrosoft\n25.89x\n\n\nGoogle\n22.46x\n\n\nAverage\n24.52x\n\n\n\nSource: SeekingAlpha\nThe revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.\n\n\n\nAmazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nOnline stores\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPhysical stores\n17.22\n17.19\n16.23\n17.40\n18.55\n19.38\n\n\nGrowth %\n196.9%\n-0.2%\n-5.6%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\nSubscription services\n14.17\n19.21\n25.21\n34.67\n47.68\n65.58\n\n\nGrowth %\n45.8%\n35.6%\n31.2%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n\n\nAWS\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\nOther\n10.11\n14.09\n21.45\n31.27\n45.60\n66.48\n\n\nGrowth %\n117.4%\n39.4%\n52.2%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n\n\nTotal\n232.9\n280.53\n386.07\n447.0\n545.9\n669.1\n\n\nTotal Growth %\n30.9%\n20.5%\n37.6%\n15.8%\n22.1%\n22.6%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nBased on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.\nSource: Khaveen Investments\nVerdict\nIn conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":880451819,"gmtCreate":1631075168731,"gmtModify":1631889370856,"author":{"id":"3579576204997725","authorId":"3579576204997725","name":"ThaigerB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a8c11fe841ba6ed0f15e36becdaa772","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3579576204997725","authorIdStr":"3579576204997725"},"htmlText":"Like pls👍","listText":"Like pls👍","text":"Like pls👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880451819","repostId":1143120804,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143120804","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631072080,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143120804?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 11:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143120804","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth ra","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li> <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li> <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li> <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年收入增长超出我们预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍有望从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用DCF分析修改了估值，从3,358.73美元获得了4,303.18美元的新目标价。</li></ul>4kodiak/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</blockquote> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.<blockquote>自我们上次报道以来，亚马逊公司(AMZN)的股价已上涨26%，超出了我们24.5%的收入增长预期，并在2020年底上涨了37.6%，其在线零售业务增长了40%，达到近2000亿美元，第三方服务800亿美元。在本次分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和AWS。</blockquote> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.<blockquote>尽管第二季度网上商店销售额增长疲软13%，第三季度同比指引中点疲软13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力。亚马逊已确立市场地位的在线零售。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到2023年，电子商务的份额将从2020年的18%达到22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、作为忠实客户的庞大Prime会员基础以及坚实的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，正如其与第三方卖家的电子商务市场的崛起所证明的那样。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，持续致力于增长并以不断增长的数据量为基础。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth<blockquote>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</blockquote> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.<blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，加速了向电子商务的采用。然而，尽管2021年第二季度在线商店增长同比放缓13%，而第一季度为41%，但我们相信该公司将继续受益于电子商务采用率不断上升的长期推动力。</blockquote> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.<blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向在线购买，电子商务销售额的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将反弹7.2%。因此，2021年电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%实现正常化增长，渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = C x A<blockquote>*B=C x A</blockquote> Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.<blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争优势。更具体地说，很难在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上赢得公司的支持。显然，该公司的Prime会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司具有强大的吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也推动消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Backlinko<blockquote>资料来源：Backlinko</blockquote> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>除了Prime会员之外，该公司还能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，自2017年以来新增卖家330万人，即每天3,718人。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已确立了自己作为市场主导者的地位，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于第二接近的竞争对手。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Marketing Charts<blockquote>资料来源：营销图表</blockquote> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>如下表所示，其在不同产品类别和市场中的市场领导地位相当广泛。例如，其消费品和消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务总销售额的50.2%，占零售总额的26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: eMarketer<blockquote>资料来源：eMarketer</blockquote> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.<blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌(GOOG)和苹果(AAPL)，并继续通过新一代产品和软件更新来开发该产品。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据Echo产品系列103美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为39.4亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.<blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的不断增长，我们预计这一产品广度将继续扩大，并通过产品多样性为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.<blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有成熟的客户群和忠诚的Prime会员生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛的市场领导地位和广泛的产品广度的庞大卖家基础，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店增长是基于我们对其市场份额的预期（基于全球电子商务销售额的5年平均值）为4.5%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>零售销售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>16.2%<blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.9%<blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.3%<blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11.5%<blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.4%<blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.8%<blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.0%<blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入('d')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>91.43<blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></td> <td>108.35<blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>18.5%<blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额('e')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.0%<blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.1%<blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.2%<blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.6%<blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = A x C<blockquote>*B=A x C</blockquote> *D = B x E<blockquote>*D=B x E</blockquote> Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The Rise of Third-party Seller Services<blockquote>第三方卖家服务的兴起</blockquote> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.<blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和运输业务，这已成为一条难以逾越的护城河，很少有其他公司拥有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要送货提供商合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供的计划使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单。</blockquote> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.<blockquote>通过亚马逊物流（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的运营中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金以及相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、货件跟踪和报告。</blockquote> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.<blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更大的灵活性和控制力、更强大的品牌影响力和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的比例不断上升，达到总销售额的62%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: FourWeekMBA<blockquote>资料来源：FourWeekMBA</blockquote> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.<blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和运输网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和UPS竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其交付网络以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国运送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: WebFX<blockquote>来源：WebFX</blockquote> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.<blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，即将于2021年在密苏里州开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输大型客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020年，该公司宣布了7个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州600,000平方英尺的设施、田纳西州855,000平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州625,000平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CNBC<blockquote>资料来源：CNBC</blockquote> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.<blockquote>总体而言，这些都是该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面的优势的因素之一。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数人或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，公司的计划扩张将继续增强其物流网络并保持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista<blockquote>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</blockquote> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.<blockquote>我们预测了该公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，亚马逊的第三方商品销售总额预计将在过去5年的平均增长率为9%。此外，我们还预测，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的27.3%增长1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的60%至75%之间，低于AWS的80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率37%由于与占总销售额60%的销售成本相关的高成本。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额('b')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.6%<blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.5%<blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.4%<blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.0%<blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.9%<blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.5%<blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.9%<blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21%<blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11%<blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></td> <td>16%<blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊商城）GMV('c')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>103<blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></td> <td>130<blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></td> <td>160<blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></td> <td>200<blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></td> <td>295<blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></td> <td>353<blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></td> <td>443<blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></td> <td>553<blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>26.2%<blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>23.1%<blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.5%<blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.8%<blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.3%<blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>% Of Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>佔收入百分比（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.3%<blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>24.5%<blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.7%<blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.9%<blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.3%<blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.8%<blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>28.1%<blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9.9%<blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9.0%<blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>0.6%<blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.5%<blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.99<blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.88<blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>38.7%<blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> *C = A x B<blockquote>*C=A × B</blockquote> *E = C x D<blockquote>*E=C x D</blockquote> Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth<blockquote>AWS按数据量增长增长</blockquote> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.<blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有Netflix(NFLX)、Verizon(VZ)、Capital One(COF)、麦当劳(MCD)等著名大客户。2020年AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，占据云基础设施市场31.8%的市场份额。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已发展成为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软(MSFT)和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.<blockquote>到2025年，全球数据量将增长23%，这支撑了云基础设施市场的快速增长，因为随着数据分析、5G和物联网的兴起，世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.<blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长基于到2025年数据量以23%的CAGR增长，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>*A=B x C资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.<blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS，AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，例如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，以构建基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用区，并计划再推出15个可用区来支持其云增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Canalys、Khaveen投资</blockquote> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.<blockquote>总而言之，我们基于市场份额预测假设来预测AWS的收入增长，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢削弱，但在利用AWS的稳固大客户关系的支持下仍保持其市场领先地位。根据到2023年30.7%的市场份额预测，我们预计AWS收入将增长至815亿美元。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>AWS Forecasts<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>AWS预测</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Market Share<blockquote><tr><td>AWS市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>32.6%<blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.3%<blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.8%<blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.0%<blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>30.7%<blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><tr><td>AWS收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.<blockquote>虽然AWS仅占其总收入的11%，但与其他公司部门的2.8%相比，其29%的高利润率使AWS在2020年占营业收入的59%，这凸显了AWS对其利润的重要性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk<blockquote>反垄断和数据隐私罚款风险</blockquote> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.<blockquote>民主党的报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家那里获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为40%。由于卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取额外费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，由众议院议员组成的两党小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司在一系列广泛的反垄断改革下对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.<blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊遭受了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临8.88亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反了欧盟的通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR允许罚款高达亚马逊收入的4%，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊2020年213亿美元收入的4.2%。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.<blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其利润率不断上升，因为由于其利润率更高的云业务的卓越增长，其净利润率也有所上升。AWS部门的营业利润率高达29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为2.8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.<blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有良好且强大的现金产生能力，过去5年的平均自由现金流利润率为3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购Whole Foods，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于利润率的上升，因为其利润更高的AWS业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.<blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其偿还债务的强大能力。2020年其净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着AWS的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去5年中从32倍稳步上升。</blockquote> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.<blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了DCF估值，因为该公司过去拥有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到的行业平均EV/EBITDA为27.64倍，如下表所示。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Company<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>公司</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>EV/EBITDA<blockquote><td>EV/EBITDA</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>28.57x<blockquote><td>28.57 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Alibaba (BABA)<blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（父亲）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21.14x<blockquote><td>21.14 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Microsoft<blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.89x<blockquote><td>25.89 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Google<blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.46x<blockquote><td>22.46 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Average<blockquote><tr><td>均值</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>24.52x<blockquote><td>24.52 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: SeekingAlpha<blockquote>来源：SeekingAlpha</blockquote> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.<blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS和其他的收入细分总结如下。网上商店预测源自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售额增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场中的第三方卖家GMV份额，并假设其从佣金和相关费用中获得%的收入。基于不断增长的数据量预测，AWS收入来自云市场增长。其他细分市场基于其平均3年增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，并从2027年的12.3%逐步下调，到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务和云计算市场将更加成熟。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Online stores<blockquote><tr><td>在线商店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Physical stores<blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>17.22<blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.19<blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></td> <td>16.23<blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.40<blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></td> <td>18.55<blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.38<blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>196.9%<blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-0.2%<blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-5.6%<blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Subscription services<blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>14.17<blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.21<blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.21<blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.67<blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.68<blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></td> <td>65.58<blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.6%<blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS<blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Other<blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>10.11<blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.09<blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.45<blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.27<blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.60<blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.48<blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>117.4%<blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.4%<blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>52.2%<blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total<blockquote><tr><td>总的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>232.9<blockquote><td>232.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.53<blockquote><td>280.53</td></blockquote></td> <td>386.07<blockquote><td>386.07</td></blockquote></td> <td>447.0<blockquote><td>447.0</td></blockquote></td> <td>545.9<blockquote><td>545.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>669.1<blockquote><td>669.1</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>总增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>30.9%<blockquote><td>30.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.5%<blockquote><td>20.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.6%<blockquote><td>37.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.8%<blockquote><td>15.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.1%<blockquote><td>22.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.6%<blockquote><td>22.6%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.<blockquote>基于12.7%的贴现率（公司的WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为36.9%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：卡文投资</blockquote> Verdict<blockquote>裁决</blockquote> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.<blockquote>总之，我们分析了该公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和AWS。虽然加速增长最终结束，但作为电子商务领域成熟且占主导地位的市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为转向电子商务，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比预计将继续上升，预计到2023年将达到22%。该公司的Prime会员为其提供了大约占美国人口一半的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和运输网络，亚马逊FBA在其在线市场上看到第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户有着密切的关系，管理层也不断致力于满足该细分市场不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预计2021年增长正常化，但我们认为其前景继续受到电子商务和云计算市场不断增长的提振，并将我们的增长率预测修正为2021年的15.8%，随后修正为2020年的22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为购买目标价格为$4,363.96.</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-09-08 11:34\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li> <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li> <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li> <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年收入增长超出我们预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍有望从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用DCF分析修改了估值，从3,358.73美元获得了4,303.18美元的新目标价。</li></ul>4kodiak/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</blockquote> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.<blockquote>自我们上次报道以来，亚马逊公司(AMZN)的股价已上涨26%，超出了我们24.5%的收入增长预期，并在2020年底上涨了37.6%，其在线零售业务增长了40%，达到近2000亿美元，第三方服务800亿美元。在本次分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和AWS。</blockquote> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.<blockquote>尽管第二季度网上商店销售额增长疲软13%，第三季度同比指引中点疲软13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力。亚马逊已确立市场地位的在线零售。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到2023年，电子商务的份额将从2020年的18%达到22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、作为忠实客户的庞大Prime会员基础以及坚实的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，正如其与第三方卖家的电子商务市场的崛起所证明的那样。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，持续致力于增长并以不断增长的数据量为基础。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth<blockquote>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</blockquote> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.<blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，加速了向电子商务的采用。然而，尽管2021年第二季度在线商店增长同比放缓13%，而第一季度为41%，但我们相信该公司将继续受益于电子商务采用率不断上升的长期推动力。</blockquote> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.<blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向在线购买，电子商务销售额的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将反弹7.2%。因此，2021年电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%实现正常化增长，渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = C x A<blockquote>*B=C x A</blockquote> Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.<blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争优势。更具体地说，很难在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上赢得公司的支持。显然，该公司的Prime会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司具有强大的吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也推动消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Backlinko<blockquote>资料来源：Backlinko</blockquote> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>除了Prime会员之外，该公司还能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，自2017年以来新增卖家330万人，即每天3,718人。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已确立了自己作为市场主导者的地位，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于第二接近的竞争对手。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Marketing Charts<blockquote>资料来源：营销图表</blockquote> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>如下表所示，其在不同产品类别和市场中的市场领导地位相当广泛。例如，其消费品和消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务总销售额的50.2%，占零售总额的26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: eMarketer<blockquote>资料来源：eMarketer</blockquote> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.<blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌(GOOG)和苹果(AAPL)，并继续通过新一代产品和软件更新来开发该产品。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据Echo产品系列103美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为39.4亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.<blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的不断增长，我们预计这一产品广度将继续扩大，并通过产品多样性为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.<blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有成熟的客户群和忠诚的Prime会员生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛的市场领导地位和广泛的产品广度的庞大卖家基础，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店增长是基于我们对其市场份额的预期（基于全球电子商务销售额的5年平均值）为4.5%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>零售销售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>16.2%<blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.9%<blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.3%<blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11.5%<blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.4%<blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.8%<blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.0%<blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入('d')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>91.43<blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></td> <td>108.35<blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>18.5%<blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额('e')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.0%<blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.1%<blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.2%<blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.6%<blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = A x C<blockquote>*B=A x C</blockquote> *D = B x E<blockquote>*D=B x E</blockquote> Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The Rise of Third-party Seller Services<blockquote>第三方卖家服务的兴起</blockquote> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.<blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和运输业务，这已成为一条难以逾越的护城河，很少有其他公司拥有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要送货提供商合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供的计划使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单。</blockquote> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.<blockquote>通过亚马逊物流（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的运营中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金以及相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、货件跟踪和报告。</blockquote> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.<blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更大的灵活性和控制力、更强大的品牌影响力和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的比例不断上升，达到总销售额的62%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: FourWeekMBA<blockquote>资料来源：FourWeekMBA</blockquote> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.<blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和运输网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和UPS竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其交付网络以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国运送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: WebFX<blockquote>来源：WebFX</blockquote> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.<blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，即将于2021年在密苏里州开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输大型客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020年，该公司宣布了7个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州600,000平方英尺的设施、田纳西州855,000平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州625,000平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CNBC<blockquote>资料来源：CNBC</blockquote> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.<blockquote>总体而言，这些都是该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面的优势的因素之一。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数人或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，公司的计划扩张将继续增强其物流网络并保持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista<blockquote>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</blockquote> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.<blockquote>我们预测了该公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，亚马逊的第三方商品销售总额预计将在过去5年的平均增长率为9%。此外，我们还预测，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的27.3%增长1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的60%至75%之间，低于AWS的80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率37%由于与占总销售额60%的销售成本相关的高成本。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额('b')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.6%<blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.5%<blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.4%<blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.0%<blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.9%<blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.5%<blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.9%<blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21%<blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11%<blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></td> <td>16%<blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊商城）GMV('c')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>103<blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></td> <td>130<blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></td> <td>160<blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></td> <td>200<blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></td> <td>295<blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></td> <td>353<blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></td> <td>443<blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></td> <td>553<blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>26.2%<blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>23.1%<blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.5%<blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.8%<blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.3%<blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>% Of Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>佔收入百分比（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.3%<blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>24.5%<blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.7%<blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.9%<blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.3%<blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.8%<blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>28.1%<blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9.9%<blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9.0%<blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>0.6%<blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.5%<blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.99<blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.88<blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>38.7%<blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> *C = A x B<blockquote>*C=A × B</blockquote> *E = C x D<blockquote>*E=C x D</blockquote> Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth<blockquote>AWS按数据量增长增长</blockquote> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.<blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有Netflix(NFLX)、Verizon(VZ)、Capital One(COF)、麦当劳(MCD)等著名大客户。2020年AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，占据云基础设施市场31.8%的市场份额。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已发展成为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软(MSFT)和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.<blockquote>到2025年，全球数据量将增长23%，这支撑了云基础设施市场的快速增长，因为随着数据分析、5G和物联网的兴起，世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.<blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长基于到2025年数据量以23%的CAGR增长，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>*A=B x C资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.<blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS，AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，例如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，以构建基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用区，并计划再推出15个可用区来支持其云增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Canalys、Khaveen投资</blockquote> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.<blockquote>总而言之，我们基于市场份额预测假设来预测AWS的收入增长，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢削弱，但在利用AWS的稳固大客户关系的支持下仍保持其市场领先地位。根据到2023年30.7%的市场份额预测，我们预计AWS收入将增长至815亿美元。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>AWS Forecasts<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>AWS预测</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Market Share<blockquote><tr><td>AWS市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>32.6%<blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.3%<blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.8%<blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.0%<blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>30.7%<blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><tr><td>AWS收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.<blockquote>虽然AWS仅占其总收入的11%，但与其他公司部门的2.8%相比，其29%的高利润率使AWS在2020年占营业收入的59%，这凸显了AWS对其利润的重要性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk<blockquote>反垄断和数据隐私罚款风险</blockquote> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.<blockquote>民主党的报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家那里获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为40%。由于卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取额外费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，由众议院议员组成的两党小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司在一系列广泛的反垄断改革下对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.<blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊遭受了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临8.88亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反了欧盟的通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR允许罚款高达亚马逊收入的4%，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊2020年213亿美元收入的4.2%。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.<blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其利润率不断上升，因为由于其利润率更高的云业务的卓越增长，其净利润率也有所上升。AWS部门的营业利润率高达29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为2.8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.<blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有良好且强大的现金产生能力，过去5年的平均自由现金流利润率为3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购Whole Foods，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于利润率的上升，因为其利润更高的AWS业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.<blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其偿还债务的强大能力。2020年其净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着AWS的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去5年中从32倍稳步上升。</blockquote> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.<blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了DCF估值，因为该公司过去拥有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到的行业平均EV/EBITDA为27.64倍，如下表所示。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Company<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>公司</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>EV/EBITDA<blockquote><td>EV/EBITDA</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>28.57x<blockquote><td>28.57 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Alibaba (BABA)<blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（父亲）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21.14x<blockquote><td>21.14 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Microsoft<blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.89x<blockquote><td>25.89 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Google<blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.46x<blockquote><td>22.46 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Average<blockquote><tr><td>均值</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>24.52x<blockquote><td>24.52 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: SeekingAlpha<blockquote>来源：SeekingAlpha</blockquote> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.<blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS和其他的收入细分总结如下。网上商店预测源自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售额增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场中的第三方卖家GMV份额，并假设其从佣金和相关费用中获得%的收入。基于不断增长的数据量预测，AWS收入来自云市场增长。其他细分市场基于其平均3年增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，并从2027年的12.3%逐步下调，到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务和云计算市场将更加成熟。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Online stores<blockquote><tr><td>在线商店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Physical stores<blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>17.22<blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.19<blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></td> <td>16.23<blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.40<blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></td> <td>18.55<blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.38<blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>196.9%<blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-0.2%<blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-5.6%<blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Subscription services<blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>14.17<blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.21<blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.21<blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.67<blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.68<blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></td> <td>65.58<blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.6%<blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS<blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Other<blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>10.11<blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.09<blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.45<blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.27<blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.60<blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.48<blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>117.4%<blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.4%<blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>52.2%<blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total<blockquote><tr><td>总的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>232.9<blockquote><td>232.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.53<blockquote><td>280.53</td></blockquote></td> <td>386.07<blockquote><td>386.07</td></blockquote></td> <td>447.0<blockquote><td>447.0</td></blockquote></td> <td>545.9<blockquote><td>545.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>669.1<blockquote><td>669.1</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>总增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>30.9%<blockquote><td>30.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.5%<blockquote><td>20.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.6%<blockquote><td>37.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.8%<blockquote><td>15.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.1%<blockquote><td>22.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.6%<blockquote><td>22.6%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.<blockquote>基于12.7%的贴现率（公司的WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为36.9%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：卡文投资</blockquote> Verdict<blockquote>裁决</blockquote> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.<blockquote>总之，我们分析了该公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和AWS。虽然加速增长最终结束，但作为电子商务领域成熟且占主导地位的市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为转向电子商务，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比预计将继续上升，预计到2023年将达到22%。该公司的Prime会员为其提供了大约占美国人口一半的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和运输网络，亚马逊FBA在其在线市场上看到第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户有着密切的关系，管理层也不断致力于满足该细分市场不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预计2021年增长正常化，但我们认为其前景继续受到电子商务和云计算市场不断增长的提振，并将我们的增长率预测修正为2021年的15.8%，随后修正为2020年的22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为购买目标价格为$4,363.96.</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143120804","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.\nWhile growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.\nAWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.\nWe revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.\n\n4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nSince our previous coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.\nDespite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3 guidance of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.\nSource: Amazon\nE-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth\nAmazon's online store sales have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.\nAccording to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to reach 22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.\n\n\n\nGlobal E-Commerce Market ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Global Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\n\n* B = C x A\nSource: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments\nAmazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.\nSource: Backlinko\nIn addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently attract sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.\nSource: Marketing Charts\nIts market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer & consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel & accessories, books music & video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.\nSource: eMarketer\nAmong the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having purchased electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker units and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average price of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.\nAll in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln products excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.\nThus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.\n\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\nGrowth %\n16.2%\n20.9%\n17.3%\n11.5%\n32.4%\n2.8%\n8.1%\n10.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')\n91.43\n108.35\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n18.5%\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')\n5.0%\n4.5%\n4.1%\n4.2%\n4.6%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n\n\n\n* B = A x C\n*D = B x E\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThe Rise of Third-party Seller Services\nAnother major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.\nWith Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.\nSelling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately provides more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising share of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.\nSource: FourWeekMBA\nThe chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it enhances its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business delivered 1.9 bln packages in the US.\nSource: WebFX\nMoreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming opening of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it announced plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.\nSource: CNBC\nOverall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has free Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.\nSource: Statista\nWe forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which represents 60% of its total sales.\n\n\n\nThird-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nGlobal Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Third Party Market Share ('b')\n5.6%\n5.5%\n5.4%\n6.0%\n6.9%\n7.5%\n8.1%\n8.9%\n\n\nGrowth %\n21%\n-2%\n-2%\n11%\n16%\n9%\n9%\n9%\n\n\nThird-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')\n103\n130\n160\n200\n295\n353\n443\n553\n\n\nGrowth %\n26.2%\n23.1%\n25.0%\n47.5%\n19.8%\n25.3%\n25.0%\n\n\n% Of Revenues ('d')\n22.3%\n24.5%\n26.7%\n26.9%\n27.3%\n27.6%\n27.8%\n28.1%\n\n\nGrowth %\n9.9%\n9.0%\n0.6%\n1.5%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services revenues ('e')\n22.99\n31.88\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n38.7%\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\n\n*C = A x B\n*E = C x D\nSource: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments\nAWS Growth by Data Volume Growth\nAnother key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.\nThe rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nWe projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23% CAGR through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.\n* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently announced a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.\nSource: Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nAll in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.\n\n\n\nAWS Forecasts\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nAWS Market Share\n32.6%\n32.3%\n31.8%\n31.2%\n31.0%\n30.7%\n\n\nAWS Revenues ($ bln)\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nWhile AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.\nSource: Amazon\nAntimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk\nAmazon has been involved in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.\nWhereas in the European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.\nValuation\nThe company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nMore importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the acquisition of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nThe company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.\nTo value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.\n\n\n\nCompany\nEV/EBITDA\n\n\nAmazon\n28.57x\n\n\nAlibaba (BABA)\n21.14x\n\n\nMicrosoft\n25.89x\n\n\nGoogle\n22.46x\n\n\nAverage\n24.52x\n\n\n\nSource: SeekingAlpha\nThe revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.\n\n\n\nAmazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nOnline stores\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPhysical stores\n17.22\n17.19\n16.23\n17.40\n18.55\n19.38\n\n\nGrowth %\n196.9%\n-0.2%\n-5.6%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\nSubscription services\n14.17\n19.21\n25.21\n34.67\n47.68\n65.58\n\n\nGrowth %\n45.8%\n35.6%\n31.2%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n\n\nAWS\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\nOther\n10.11\n14.09\n21.45\n31.27\n45.60\n66.48\n\n\nGrowth %\n117.4%\n39.4%\n52.2%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n\n\nTotal\n232.9\n280.53\n386.07\n447.0\n545.9\n669.1\n\n\nTotal Growth %\n30.9%\n20.5%\n37.6%\n15.8%\n22.1%\n22.6%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nBased on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.\nSource: Khaveen Investments\nVerdict\nIn conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5789911,"gmtCreate":1631076124655,"gmtModify":1631889370865,"authorId":4087716775421880,"author":{"id":4087716775421880,"idStr":"4087716775421880","authorId":4087716775421880,"name":"Reqd","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5ec4e1b59efb60955886ef2ebb04945","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":880451819,"type":1,"supId":5789829,"prevId":0,"content":"Yes","text":"Yes","html":"Yes"},{"id":5789829,"gmtCreate":1631075522676,"gmtModify":1631889370853,"authorId":3577147024133490,"author":{"id":3577147024133490,"idStr":"3577147024133490","authorId":3577147024133490,"name":"vincentheng8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177fda2264ab2bd83ccfc55eb70c57a4","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":880451819,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"yes","text":"yes","html":"yes"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":880426608,"gmtCreate":1631074133204,"gmtModify":1631888823965,"author":{"id":"4092303713529060","authorId":"4092303713529060","name":"nonewiser","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd9b04eb54f9084061713adead32828","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4092303713529060","authorIdStr":"4092303713529060"},"htmlText":"Yeay&nbsp;","listText":"Yeay&nbsp;","text":"Yeay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880426608","repostId":1143120804,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143120804","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631072080,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143120804?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 11:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143120804","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth ra","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li> <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li> <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li> <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年收入增长超出我们预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍有望从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用DCF分析修改了估值，从3,358.73美元获得了4,303.18美元的新目标价。</li></ul>4kodiak/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</blockquote> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.<blockquote>自我们上次报道以来，亚马逊公司(AMZN)的股价已上涨26%，超出了我们24.5%的收入增长预期，并在2020年底上涨了37.6%，其在线零售业务增长了40%，达到近2000亿美元，第三方服务800亿美元。在本次分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和AWS。</blockquote> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.<blockquote>尽管第二季度网上商店销售额增长疲软13%，第三季度同比指引中点疲软13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力。亚马逊已确立市场地位的在线零售。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到2023年，电子商务的份额将从2020年的18%达到22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、作为忠实客户的庞大Prime会员基础以及坚实的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，正如其与第三方卖家的电子商务市场的崛起所证明的那样。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，持续致力于增长并以不断增长的数据量为基础。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth<blockquote>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</blockquote> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.<blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，加速了向电子商务的采用。然而，尽管2021年第二季度在线商店增长同比放缓13%，而第一季度为41%，但我们相信该公司将继续受益于电子商务采用率不断上升的长期推动力。</blockquote> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.<blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向在线购买，电子商务销售额的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将反弹7.2%。因此，2021年电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%实现正常化增长，渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = C x A<blockquote>*B=C x A</blockquote> Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.<blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争优势。更具体地说，很难在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上赢得公司的支持。显然，该公司的Prime会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司具有强大的吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也推动消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Backlinko<blockquote>资料来源：Backlinko</blockquote> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>除了Prime会员之外，该公司还能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，自2017年以来新增卖家330万人，即每天3,718人。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已确立了自己作为市场主导者的地位，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于第二接近的竞争对手。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Marketing Charts<blockquote>资料来源：营销图表</blockquote> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>如下表所示，其在不同产品类别和市场中的市场领导地位相当广泛。例如，其消费品和消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务总销售额的50.2%，占零售总额的26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: eMarketer<blockquote>资料来源：eMarketer</blockquote> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.<blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌(GOOG)和苹果(AAPL)，并继续通过新一代产品和软件更新来开发该产品。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据Echo产品系列103美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为39.4亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.<blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的不断增长，我们预计这一产品广度将继续扩大，并通过产品多样性为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.<blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有成熟的客户群和忠诚的Prime会员生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛的市场领导地位和广泛的产品广度的庞大卖家基础，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店增长是基于我们对其市场份额的预期（基于全球电子商务销售额的5年平均值）为4.5%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>零售销售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>16.2%<blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.9%<blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.3%<blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11.5%<blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.4%<blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.8%<blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.0%<blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入('d')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>91.43<blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></td> <td>108.35<blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>18.5%<blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额('e')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.0%<blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.1%<blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.2%<blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.6%<blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = A x C<blockquote>*B=A x C</blockquote> *D = B x E<blockquote>*D=B x E</blockquote> Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The Rise of Third-party Seller Services<blockquote>第三方卖家服务的兴起</blockquote> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.<blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和运输业务，这已成为一条难以逾越的护城河，很少有其他公司拥有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要送货提供商合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供的计划使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单。</blockquote> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.<blockquote>通过亚马逊物流（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的运营中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金以及相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、货件跟踪和报告。</blockquote> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.<blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更大的灵活性和控制力、更强大的品牌影响力和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的比例不断上升，达到总销售额的62%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: FourWeekMBA<blockquote>资料来源：FourWeekMBA</blockquote> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.<blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和运输网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和UPS竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其交付网络以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国运送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: WebFX<blockquote>来源：WebFX</blockquote> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.<blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，即将于2021年在密苏里州开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输大型客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020年，该公司宣布了7个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州600,000平方英尺的设施、田纳西州855,000平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州625,000平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CNBC<blockquote>资料来源：CNBC</blockquote> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.<blockquote>总体而言，这些都是该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面的优势的因素之一。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数人或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，公司的计划扩张将继续增强其物流网络并保持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista<blockquote>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</blockquote> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.<blockquote>我们预测了该公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，亚马逊的第三方商品销售总额预计将在过去5年的平均增长率为9%。此外，我们还预测，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的27.3%增长1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的60%至75%之间，低于AWS的80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率37%由于与占总销售额60%的销售成本相关的高成本。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额('b')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.6%<blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.5%<blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.4%<blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.0%<blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.9%<blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.5%<blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.9%<blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21%<blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11%<blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></td> <td>16%<blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊商城）GMV('c')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>103<blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></td> <td>130<blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></td> <td>160<blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></td> <td>200<blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></td> <td>295<blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></td> <td>353<blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></td> <td>443<blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></td> <td>553<blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>26.2%<blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>23.1%<blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.5%<blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.8%<blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.3%<blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>% Of Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>佔收入百分比（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.3%<blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>24.5%<blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.7%<blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.9%<blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.3%<blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.8%<blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>28.1%<blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9.9%<blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9.0%<blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>0.6%<blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.5%<blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.99<blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.88<blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>38.7%<blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> *C = A x B<blockquote>*C=A × B</blockquote> *E = C x D<blockquote>*E=C x D</blockquote> Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth<blockquote>AWS按数据量增长增长</blockquote> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.<blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有Netflix(NFLX)、Verizon(VZ)、Capital One(COF)、麦当劳(MCD)等著名大客户。2020年AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，占据云基础设施市场31.8%的市场份额。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已发展成为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软(MSFT)和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.<blockquote>到2025年，全球数据量将增长23%，这支撑了云基础设施市场的快速增长，因为随着数据分析、5G和物联网的兴起，世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.<blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长基于到2025年数据量以23%的CAGR增长，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>*A=B x C资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.<blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS，AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，例如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，以构建基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用区，并计划再推出15个可用区来支持其云增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Canalys、Khaveen投资</blockquote> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.<blockquote>总而言之，我们基于市场份额预测假设来预测AWS的收入增长，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢削弱，但在利用AWS的稳固大客户关系的支持下仍保持其市场领先地位。根据到2023年30.7%的市场份额预测，我们预计AWS收入将增长至815亿美元。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>AWS Forecasts<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>AWS预测</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Market Share<blockquote><tr><td>AWS市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>32.6%<blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.3%<blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.8%<blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.0%<blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>30.7%<blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><tr><td>AWS收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.<blockquote>虽然AWS仅占其总收入的11%，但与其他公司部门的2.8%相比，其29%的高利润率使AWS在2020年占营业收入的59%，这凸显了AWS对其利润的重要性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk<blockquote>反垄断和数据隐私罚款风险</blockquote> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.<blockquote>民主党的报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家那里获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为40%。由于卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取额外费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，由众议院议员组成的两党小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司在一系列广泛的反垄断改革下对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.<blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊遭受了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临8.88亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反了欧盟的通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR允许罚款高达亚马逊收入的4%，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊2020年213亿美元收入的4.2%。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.<blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其利润率不断上升，因为由于其利润率更高的云业务的卓越增长，其净利润率也有所上升。AWS部门的营业利润率高达29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为2.8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.<blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有良好且强大的现金产生能力，过去5年的平均自由现金流利润率为3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购Whole Foods，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于利润率的上升，因为其利润更高的AWS业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.<blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其偿还债务的强大能力。2020年其净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着AWS的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去5年中从32倍稳步上升。</blockquote> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.<blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了DCF估值，因为该公司过去拥有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到的行业平均EV/EBITDA为27.64倍，如下表所示。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Company<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>公司</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>EV/EBITDA<blockquote><td>EV/EBITDA</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>28.57x<blockquote><td>28.57 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Alibaba (BABA)<blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（父亲）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21.14x<blockquote><td>21.14 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Microsoft<blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.89x<blockquote><td>25.89 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Google<blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.46x<blockquote><td>22.46 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Average<blockquote><tr><td>均值</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>24.52x<blockquote><td>24.52 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: SeekingAlpha<blockquote>来源：SeekingAlpha</blockquote> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.<blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS和其他的收入细分总结如下。网上商店预测源自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售额增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场中的第三方卖家GMV份额，并假设其从佣金和相关费用中获得%的收入。基于不断增长的数据量预测，AWS收入来自云市场增长。其他细分市场基于其平均3年增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，并从2027年的12.3%逐步下调，到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务和云计算市场将更加成熟。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Online stores<blockquote><tr><td>在线商店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Physical stores<blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>17.22<blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.19<blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></td> <td>16.23<blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.40<blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></td> <td>18.55<blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.38<blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>196.9%<blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-0.2%<blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-5.6%<blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Subscription services<blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>14.17<blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.21<blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.21<blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.67<blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.68<blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></td> <td>65.58<blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.6%<blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS<blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Other<blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>10.11<blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.09<blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.45<blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.27<blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.60<blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.48<blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>117.4%<blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.4%<blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>52.2%<blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total<blockquote><tr><td>总的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>232.9<blockquote><td>232.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.53<blockquote><td>280.53</td></blockquote></td> <td>386.07<blockquote><td>386.07</td></blockquote></td> <td>447.0<blockquote><td>447.0</td></blockquote></td> <td>545.9<blockquote><td>545.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>669.1<blockquote><td>669.1</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>总增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>30.9%<blockquote><td>30.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.5%<blockquote><td>20.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.6%<blockquote><td>37.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.8%<blockquote><td>15.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.1%<blockquote><td>22.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.6%<blockquote><td>22.6%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.<blockquote>基于12.7%的贴现率（公司的WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为36.9%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：卡文投资</blockquote> Verdict<blockquote>裁决</blockquote> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.<blockquote>总之，我们分析了该公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和AWS。虽然加速增长最终结束，但作为电子商务领域成熟且占主导地位的市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为转向电子商务，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比预计将继续上升，预计到2023年将达到22%。该公司的Prime会员为其提供了大约占美国人口一半的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和运输网络，亚马逊FBA在其在线市场上看到第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户有着密切的关系，管理层也不断致力于满足该细分市场不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预计2021年增长正常化，但我们认为其前景继续受到电子商务和云计算市场不断增长的提振，并将我们的增长率预测修正为2021年的15.8%，随后修正为2020年的22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为购买目标价格为$4,363.96.</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-09-08 11:34\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li> <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li> <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li> <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年收入增长超出我们预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍有望从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用DCF分析修改了估值，从3,358.73美元获得了4,303.18美元的新目标价。</li></ul>4kodiak/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</blockquote> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.<blockquote>自我们上次报道以来，亚马逊公司(AMZN)的股价已上涨26%，超出了我们24.5%的收入增长预期，并在2020年底上涨了37.6%，其在线零售业务增长了40%，达到近2000亿美元，第三方服务800亿美元。在本次分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和AWS。</blockquote> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.<blockquote>尽管第二季度网上商店销售额增长疲软13%，第三季度同比指引中点疲软13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力。亚马逊已确立市场地位的在线零售。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到2023年，电子商务的份额将从2020年的18%达到22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、作为忠实客户的庞大Prime会员基础以及坚实的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，正如其与第三方卖家的电子商务市场的崛起所证明的那样。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，持续致力于增长并以不断增长的数据量为基础。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth<blockquote>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</blockquote> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.<blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，加速了向电子商务的采用。然而，尽管2021年第二季度在线商店增长同比放缓13%，而第一季度为41%，但我们相信该公司将继续受益于电子商务采用率不断上升的长期推动力。</blockquote> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.<blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向在线购买，电子商务销售额的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将反弹7.2%。因此，2021年电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%实现正常化增长，渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = C x A<blockquote>*B=C x A</blockquote> Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.<blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争优势。更具体地说，很难在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上赢得公司的支持。显然，该公司的Prime会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司具有强大的吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也推动消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Backlinko<blockquote>资料来源：Backlinko</blockquote> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>除了Prime会员之外，该公司还能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，自2017年以来新增卖家330万人，即每天3,718人。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已确立了自己作为市场主导者的地位，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于第二接近的竞争对手。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Marketing Charts<blockquote>资料来源：营销图表</blockquote> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>如下表所示，其在不同产品类别和市场中的市场领导地位相当广泛。例如，其消费品和消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务总销售额的50.2%，占零售总额的26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: eMarketer<blockquote>资料来源：eMarketer</blockquote> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.<blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌(GOOG)和苹果(AAPL)，并继续通过新一代产品和软件更新来开发该产品。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据Echo产品系列103美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为39.4亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.<blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的不断增长，我们预计这一产品广度将继续扩大，并通过产品多样性为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.<blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有成熟的客户群和忠诚的Prime会员生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛的市场领导地位和广泛的产品广度的庞大卖家基础，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店增长是基于我们对其市场份额的预期（基于全球电子商务销售额的5年平均值）为4.5%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>零售销售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>16.2%<blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.9%<blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.3%<blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11.5%<blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.4%<blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.8%<blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.0%<blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入('d')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>91.43<blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></td> <td>108.35<blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>18.5%<blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额('e')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.0%<blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.1%<blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.2%<blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.6%<blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = A x C<blockquote>*B=A x C</blockquote> *D = B x E<blockquote>*D=B x E</blockquote> Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The Rise of Third-party Seller Services<blockquote>第三方卖家服务的兴起</blockquote> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.<blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和运输业务，这已成为一条难以逾越的护城河，很少有其他公司拥有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要送货提供商合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供的计划使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单。</blockquote> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.<blockquote>通过亚马逊物流（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的运营中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金以及相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、货件跟踪和报告。</blockquote> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.<blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更大的灵活性和控制力、更强大的品牌影响力和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的比例不断上升，达到总销售额的62%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: FourWeekMBA<blockquote>资料来源：FourWeekMBA</blockquote> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.<blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和运输网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和UPS竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其交付网络以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国运送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: WebFX<blockquote>来源：WebFX</blockquote> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.<blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，即将于2021年在密苏里州开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输大型客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020年，该公司宣布了7个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州600,000平方英尺的设施、田纳西州855,000平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州625,000平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CNBC<blockquote>资料来源：CNBC</blockquote> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.<blockquote>总体而言，这些都是该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面的优势的因素之一。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数人或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，公司的计划扩张将继续增强其物流网络并保持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista<blockquote>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</blockquote> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.<blockquote>我们预测了该公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，亚马逊的第三方商品销售总额预计将在过去5年的平均增长率为9%。此外，我们还预测，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的27.3%增长1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的60%至75%之间，低于AWS的80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率37%由于与占总销售额60%的销售成本相关的高成本。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额('b')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.6%<blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.5%<blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.4%<blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.0%<blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.9%<blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.5%<blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.9%<blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21%<blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11%<blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></td> <td>16%<blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊商城）GMV('c')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>103<blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></td> <td>130<blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></td> <td>160<blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></td> <td>200<blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></td> <td>295<blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></td> <td>353<blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></td> <td>443<blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></td> <td>553<blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>26.2%<blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>23.1%<blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.5%<blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.8%<blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.3%<blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>% Of Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>佔收入百分比（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.3%<blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>24.5%<blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.7%<blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.9%<blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.3%<blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.8%<blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>28.1%<blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9.9%<blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9.0%<blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>0.6%<blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.5%<blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.99<blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.88<blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>38.7%<blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> *C = A x B<blockquote>*C=A × B</blockquote> *E = C x D<blockquote>*E=C x D</blockquote> Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth<blockquote>AWS按数据量增长增长</blockquote> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.<blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有Netflix(NFLX)、Verizon(VZ)、Capital One(COF)、麦当劳(MCD)等著名大客户。2020年AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，占据云基础设施市场31.8%的市场份额。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已发展成为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软(MSFT)和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.<blockquote>到2025年，全球数据量将增长23%，这支撑了云基础设施市场的快速增长，因为随着数据分析、5G和物联网的兴起，世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.<blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长基于到2025年数据量以23%的CAGR增长，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>*A=B x C资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.<blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS，AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，例如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，以构建基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用区，并计划再推出15个可用区来支持其云增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Canalys、Khaveen投资</blockquote> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.<blockquote>总而言之，我们基于市场份额预测假设来预测AWS的收入增长，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢削弱，但在利用AWS的稳固大客户关系的支持下仍保持其市场领先地位。根据到2023年30.7%的市场份额预测，我们预计AWS收入将增长至815亿美元。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>AWS Forecasts<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>AWS预测</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Market Share<blockquote><tr><td>AWS市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>32.6%<blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.3%<blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.8%<blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.0%<blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>30.7%<blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><tr><td>AWS收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.<blockquote>虽然AWS仅占其总收入的11%，但与其他公司部门的2.8%相比，其29%的高利润率使AWS在2020年占营业收入的59%，这凸显了AWS对其利润的重要性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk<blockquote>反垄断和数据隐私罚款风险</blockquote> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.<blockquote>民主党的报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家那里获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为40%。由于卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取额外费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，由众议院议员组成的两党小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司在一系列广泛的反垄断改革下对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.<blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊遭受了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临8.88亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反了欧盟的通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR允许罚款高达亚马逊收入的4%，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊2020年213亿美元收入的4.2%。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.<blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其利润率不断上升，因为由于其利润率更高的云业务的卓越增长，其净利润率也有所上升。AWS部门的营业利润率高达29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为2.8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.<blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有良好且强大的现金产生能力，过去5年的平均自由现金流利润率为3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购Whole Foods，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于利润率的上升，因为其利润更高的AWS业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.<blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其偿还债务的强大能力。2020年其净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着AWS的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去5年中从32倍稳步上升。</blockquote> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.<blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了DCF估值，因为该公司过去拥有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到的行业平均EV/EBITDA为27.64倍，如下表所示。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Company<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>公司</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>EV/EBITDA<blockquote><td>EV/EBITDA</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>28.57x<blockquote><td>28.57 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Alibaba (BABA)<blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（父亲）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21.14x<blockquote><td>21.14 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Microsoft<blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.89x<blockquote><td>25.89 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Google<blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.46x<blockquote><td>22.46 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Average<blockquote><tr><td>均值</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>24.52x<blockquote><td>24.52 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: SeekingAlpha<blockquote>来源：SeekingAlpha</blockquote> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.<blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS和其他的收入细分总结如下。网上商店预测源自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售额增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场中的第三方卖家GMV份额，并假设其从佣金和相关费用中获得%的收入。基于不断增长的数据量预测，AWS收入来自云市场增长。其他细分市场基于其平均3年增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，并从2027年的12.3%逐步下调，到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务和云计算市场将更加成熟。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Online stores<blockquote><tr><td>在线商店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Physical stores<blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>17.22<blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.19<blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></td> <td>16.23<blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.40<blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></td> <td>18.55<blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.38<blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>196.9%<blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-0.2%<blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-5.6%<blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Subscription services<blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>14.17<blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.21<blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.21<blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.67<blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.68<blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></td> <td>65.58<blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.6%<blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS<blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Other<blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>10.11<blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.09<blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.45<blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.27<blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.60<blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.48<blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>117.4%<blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.4%<blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>52.2%<blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total<blockquote><tr><td>总的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>232.9<blockquote><td>232.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.53<blockquote><td>280.53</td></blockquote></td> <td>386.07<blockquote><td>386.07</td></blockquote></td> <td>447.0<blockquote><td>447.0</td></blockquote></td> <td>545.9<blockquote><td>545.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>669.1<blockquote><td>669.1</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>总增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>30.9%<blockquote><td>30.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.5%<blockquote><td>20.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.6%<blockquote><td>37.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.8%<blockquote><td>15.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.1%<blockquote><td>22.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.6%<blockquote><td>22.6%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.<blockquote>基于12.7%的贴现率（公司的WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为36.9%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：卡文投资</blockquote> Verdict<blockquote>裁决</blockquote> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.<blockquote>总之，我们分析了该公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和AWS。虽然加速增长最终结束，但作为电子商务领域成熟且占主导地位的市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为转向电子商务，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比预计将继续上升，预计到2023年将达到22%。该公司的Prime会员为其提供了大约占美国人口一半的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和运输网络，亚马逊FBA在其在线市场上看到第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户有着密切的关系，管理层也不断致力于满足该细分市场不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预计2021年增长正常化，但我们认为其前景继续受到电子商务和云计算市场不断增长的提振，并将我们的增长率预测修正为2021年的15.8%，随后修正为2020年的22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为购买目标价格为$4,363.96.</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143120804","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.\nWhile growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.\nAWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.\nWe revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.\n\n4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nSince our previous coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.\nDespite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3 guidance of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.\nSource: Amazon\nE-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth\nAmazon's online store sales have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.\nAccording to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to reach 22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.\n\n\n\nGlobal E-Commerce Market ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Global Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\n\n* B = C x A\nSource: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments\nAmazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.\nSource: Backlinko\nIn addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently attract sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.\nSource: Marketing Charts\nIts market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer & consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel & accessories, books music & video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.\nSource: eMarketer\nAmong the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having purchased electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker units and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average price of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.\nAll in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln products excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.\nThus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.\n\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\nGrowth %\n16.2%\n20.9%\n17.3%\n11.5%\n32.4%\n2.8%\n8.1%\n10.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')\n91.43\n108.35\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n18.5%\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')\n5.0%\n4.5%\n4.1%\n4.2%\n4.6%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n\n\n\n* B = A x C\n*D = B x E\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThe Rise of Third-party Seller Services\nAnother major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.\nWith Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.\nSelling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately provides more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising share of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.\nSource: FourWeekMBA\nThe chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it enhances its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business delivered 1.9 bln packages in the US.\nSource: WebFX\nMoreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming opening of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it announced plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.\nSource: CNBC\nOverall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has free Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.\nSource: Statista\nWe forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which represents 60% of its total sales.\n\n\n\nThird-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nGlobal Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Third Party Market Share ('b')\n5.6%\n5.5%\n5.4%\n6.0%\n6.9%\n7.5%\n8.1%\n8.9%\n\n\nGrowth %\n21%\n-2%\n-2%\n11%\n16%\n9%\n9%\n9%\n\n\nThird-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')\n103\n130\n160\n200\n295\n353\n443\n553\n\n\nGrowth %\n26.2%\n23.1%\n25.0%\n47.5%\n19.8%\n25.3%\n25.0%\n\n\n% Of Revenues ('d')\n22.3%\n24.5%\n26.7%\n26.9%\n27.3%\n27.6%\n27.8%\n28.1%\n\n\nGrowth %\n9.9%\n9.0%\n0.6%\n1.5%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services revenues ('e')\n22.99\n31.88\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n38.7%\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\n\n*C = A x B\n*E = C x D\nSource: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments\nAWS Growth by Data Volume Growth\nAnother key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.\nThe rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nWe projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23% CAGR through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.\n* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently announced a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.\nSource: Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nAll in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.\n\n\n\nAWS Forecasts\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nAWS Market Share\n32.6%\n32.3%\n31.8%\n31.2%\n31.0%\n30.7%\n\n\nAWS Revenues ($ bln)\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nWhile AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.\nSource: Amazon\nAntimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk\nAmazon has been involved in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.\nWhereas in the European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.\nValuation\nThe company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nMore importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the acquisition of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nThe company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.\nTo value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.\n\n\n\nCompany\nEV/EBITDA\n\n\nAmazon\n28.57x\n\n\nAlibaba (BABA)\n21.14x\n\n\nMicrosoft\n25.89x\n\n\nGoogle\n22.46x\n\n\nAverage\n24.52x\n\n\n\nSource: SeekingAlpha\nThe revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.\n\n\n\nAmazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nOnline stores\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPhysical stores\n17.22\n17.19\n16.23\n17.40\n18.55\n19.38\n\n\nGrowth %\n196.9%\n-0.2%\n-5.6%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\nSubscription services\n14.17\n19.21\n25.21\n34.67\n47.68\n65.58\n\n\nGrowth %\n45.8%\n35.6%\n31.2%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n\n\nAWS\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\nOther\n10.11\n14.09\n21.45\n31.27\n45.60\n66.48\n\n\nGrowth %\n117.4%\n39.4%\n52.2%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n\n\nTotal\n232.9\n280.53\n386.07\n447.0\n545.9\n669.1\n\n\nTotal Growth %\n30.9%\n20.5%\n37.6%\n15.8%\n22.1%\n22.6%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nBased on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.\nSource: Khaveen Investments\nVerdict\nIn conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":880467836,"gmtCreate":1631073658325,"gmtModify":1632884787337,"author":{"id":"3585354270249282","authorId":"3585354270249282","name":"MuppyKoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/280b63f52e5976fb134c31bfb22ec07d","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3585354270249282","authorIdStr":"3585354270249282"},"htmlText":"Please like","listText":"Please like","text":"Please like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880467836","repostId":1143120804,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143120804","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631072080,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143120804?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 11:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143120804","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth ra","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li> <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li> <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li> <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年收入增长超出我们预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍有望从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用DCF分析修改了估值，从3,358.73美元获得了4,303.18美元的新目标价。</li></ul>4kodiak/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</blockquote> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.<blockquote>自我们上次报道以来，亚马逊公司(AMZN)的股价已上涨26%，超出了我们24.5%的收入增长预期，并在2020年底上涨了37.6%，其在线零售业务增长了40%，达到近2000亿美元，第三方服务800亿美元。在本次分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和AWS。</blockquote> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.<blockquote>尽管第二季度网上商店销售额增长疲软13%，第三季度同比指引中点疲软13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力。亚马逊已确立市场地位的在线零售。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到2023年，电子商务的份额将从2020年的18%达到22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、作为忠实客户的庞大Prime会员基础以及坚实的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，正如其与第三方卖家的电子商务市场的崛起所证明的那样。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，持续致力于增长并以不断增长的数据量为基础。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth<blockquote>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</blockquote> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.<blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，加速了向电子商务的采用。然而，尽管2021年第二季度在线商店增长同比放缓13%，而第一季度为41%，但我们相信该公司将继续受益于电子商务采用率不断上升的长期推动力。</blockquote> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.<blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向在线购买，电子商务销售额的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将反弹7.2%。因此，2021年电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%实现正常化增长，渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = C x A<blockquote>*B=C x A</blockquote> Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.<blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争优势。更具体地说，很难在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上赢得公司的支持。显然，该公司的Prime会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司具有强大的吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也推动消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Backlinko<blockquote>资料来源：Backlinko</blockquote> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>除了Prime会员之外，该公司还能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，自2017年以来新增卖家330万人，即每天3,718人。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已确立了自己作为市场主导者的地位，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于第二接近的竞争对手。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Marketing Charts<blockquote>资料来源：营销图表</blockquote> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>如下表所示，其在不同产品类别和市场中的市场领导地位相当广泛。例如，其消费品和消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务总销售额的50.2%，占零售总额的26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: eMarketer<blockquote>资料来源：eMarketer</blockquote> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.<blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌(GOOG)和苹果(AAPL)，并继续通过新一代产品和软件更新来开发该产品。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据Echo产品系列103美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为39.4亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.<blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的不断增长，我们预计这一产品广度将继续扩大，并通过产品多样性为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.<blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有成熟的客户群和忠诚的Prime会员生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛的市场领导地位和广泛的产品广度的庞大卖家基础，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店增长是基于我们对其市场份额的预期（基于全球电子商务销售额的5年平均值）为4.5%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>零售销售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>16.2%<blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.9%<blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.3%<blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11.5%<blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.4%<blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.8%<blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.0%<blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入('d')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>91.43<blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></td> <td>108.35<blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>18.5%<blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额('e')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.0%<blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.1%<blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.2%<blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.6%<blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = A x C<blockquote>*B=A x C</blockquote> *D = B x E<blockquote>*D=B x E</blockquote> Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The Rise of Third-party Seller Services<blockquote>第三方卖家服务的兴起</blockquote> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.<blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和运输业务，这已成为一条难以逾越的护城河，很少有其他公司拥有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要送货提供商合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供的计划使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单。</blockquote> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.<blockquote>通过亚马逊物流（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的运营中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金以及相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、货件跟踪和报告。</blockquote> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.<blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更大的灵活性和控制力、更强大的品牌影响力和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的比例不断上升，达到总销售额的62%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: FourWeekMBA<blockquote>资料来源：FourWeekMBA</blockquote> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.<blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和运输网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和UPS竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其交付网络以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国运送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: WebFX<blockquote>来源：WebFX</blockquote> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.<blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，即将于2021年在密苏里州开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输大型客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020年，该公司宣布了7个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州600,000平方英尺的设施、田纳西州855,000平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州625,000平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CNBC<blockquote>资料来源：CNBC</blockquote> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.<blockquote>总体而言，这些都是该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面的优势的因素之一。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数人或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，公司的计划扩张将继续增强其物流网络并保持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista<blockquote>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</blockquote> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.<blockquote>我们预测了该公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，亚马逊的第三方商品销售总额预计将在过去5年的平均增长率为9%。此外，我们还预测，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的27.3%增长1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的60%至75%之间，低于AWS的80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率37%由于与占总销售额60%的销售成本相关的高成本。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额('b')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.6%<blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.5%<blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.4%<blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.0%<blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.9%<blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.5%<blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.9%<blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21%<blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11%<blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></td> <td>16%<blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊商城）GMV('c')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>103<blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></td> <td>130<blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></td> <td>160<blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></td> <td>200<blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></td> <td>295<blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></td> <td>353<blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></td> <td>443<blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></td> <td>553<blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>26.2%<blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>23.1%<blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.5%<blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.8%<blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.3%<blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>% Of Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>佔收入百分比（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.3%<blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>24.5%<blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.7%<blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.9%<blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.3%<blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.8%<blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>28.1%<blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9.9%<blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9.0%<blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>0.6%<blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.5%<blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.99<blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.88<blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>38.7%<blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> *C = A x B<blockquote>*C=A × B</blockquote> *E = C x D<blockquote>*E=C x D</blockquote> Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth<blockquote>AWS按数据量增长增长</blockquote> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.<blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有Netflix(NFLX)、Verizon(VZ)、Capital One(COF)、麦当劳(MCD)等著名大客户。2020年AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，占据云基础设施市场31.8%的市场份额。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已发展成为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软(MSFT)和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.<blockquote>到2025年，全球数据量将增长23%，这支撑了云基础设施市场的快速增长，因为随着数据分析、5G和物联网的兴起，世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.<blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长基于到2025年数据量以23%的CAGR增长，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>*A=B x C资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.<blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS，AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，例如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，以构建基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用区，并计划再推出15个可用区来支持其云增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Canalys、Khaveen投资</blockquote> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.<blockquote>总而言之，我们基于市场份额预测假设来预测AWS的收入增长，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢削弱，但在利用AWS的稳固大客户关系的支持下仍保持其市场领先地位。根据到2023年30.7%的市场份额预测，我们预计AWS收入将增长至815亿美元。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>AWS Forecasts<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>AWS预测</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Market Share<blockquote><tr><td>AWS市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>32.6%<blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.3%<blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.8%<blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.0%<blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>30.7%<blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><tr><td>AWS收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.<blockquote>虽然AWS仅占其总收入的11%，但与其他公司部门的2.8%相比，其29%的高利润率使AWS在2020年占营业收入的59%，这凸显了AWS对其利润的重要性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk<blockquote>反垄断和数据隐私罚款风险</blockquote> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.<blockquote>民主党的报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家那里获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为40%。由于卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取额外费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，由众议院议员组成的两党小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司在一系列广泛的反垄断改革下对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.<blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊遭受了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临8.88亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反了欧盟的通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR允许罚款高达亚马逊收入的4%，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊2020年213亿美元收入的4.2%。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.<blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其利润率不断上升，因为由于其利润率更高的云业务的卓越增长，其净利润率也有所上升。AWS部门的营业利润率高达29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为2.8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.<blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有良好且强大的现金产生能力，过去5年的平均自由现金流利润率为3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购Whole Foods，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于利润率的上升，因为其利润更高的AWS业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.<blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其偿还债务的强大能力。2020年其净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着AWS的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去5年中从32倍稳步上升。</blockquote> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.<blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了DCF估值，因为该公司过去拥有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到的行业平均EV/EBITDA为27.64倍，如下表所示。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Company<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>公司</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>EV/EBITDA<blockquote><td>EV/EBITDA</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>28.57x<blockquote><td>28.57 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Alibaba (BABA)<blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（父亲）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21.14x<blockquote><td>21.14 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Microsoft<blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.89x<blockquote><td>25.89 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Google<blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.46x<blockquote><td>22.46 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Average<blockquote><tr><td>均值</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>24.52x<blockquote><td>24.52 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: SeekingAlpha<blockquote>来源：SeekingAlpha</blockquote> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.<blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS和其他的收入细分总结如下。网上商店预测源自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售额增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场中的第三方卖家GMV份额，并假设其从佣金和相关费用中获得%的收入。基于不断增长的数据量预测，AWS收入来自云市场增长。其他细分市场基于其平均3年增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，并从2027年的12.3%逐步下调，到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务和云计算市场将更加成熟。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Online stores<blockquote><tr><td>在线商店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Physical stores<blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>17.22<blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.19<blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></td> <td>16.23<blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.40<blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></td> <td>18.55<blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.38<blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>196.9%<blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-0.2%<blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-5.6%<blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Subscription services<blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>14.17<blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.21<blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.21<blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.67<blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.68<blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></td> <td>65.58<blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.6%<blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS<blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Other<blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>10.11<blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.09<blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.45<blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.27<blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.60<blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.48<blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>117.4%<blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.4%<blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>52.2%<blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total<blockquote><tr><td>总的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>232.9<blockquote><td>232.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.53<blockquote><td>280.53</td></blockquote></td> <td>386.07<blockquote><td>386.07</td></blockquote></td> <td>447.0<blockquote><td>447.0</td></blockquote></td> <td>545.9<blockquote><td>545.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>669.1<blockquote><td>669.1</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>总增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>30.9%<blockquote><td>30.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.5%<blockquote><td>20.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.6%<blockquote><td>37.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.8%<blockquote><td>15.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.1%<blockquote><td>22.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.6%<blockquote><td>22.6%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.<blockquote>基于12.7%的贴现率（公司的WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为36.9%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：卡文投资</blockquote> Verdict<blockquote>裁决</blockquote> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.<blockquote>总之，我们分析了该公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和AWS。虽然加速增长最终结束，但作为电子商务领域成熟且占主导地位的市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为转向电子商务，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比预计将继续上升，预计到2023年将达到22%。该公司的Prime会员为其提供了大约占美国人口一半的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和运输网络，亚马逊FBA在其在线市场上看到第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户有着密切的关系，管理层也不断致力于满足该细分市场不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预计2021年增长正常化，但我们认为其前景继续受到电子商务和云计算市场不断增长的提振，并将我们的增长率预测修正为2021年的15.8%，随后修正为2020年的22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为购买目标价格为$4,363.96.</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-09-08 11:34\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li> <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li> <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li> <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年收入增长超出我们预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍有望从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用DCF分析修改了估值，从3,358.73美元获得了4,303.18美元的新目标价。</li></ul>4kodiak/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</blockquote> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.<blockquote>自我们上次报道以来，亚马逊公司(AMZN)的股价已上涨26%，超出了我们24.5%的收入增长预期，并在2020年底上涨了37.6%，其在线零售业务增长了40%，达到近2000亿美元，第三方服务800亿美元。在本次分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和AWS。</blockquote> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.<blockquote>尽管第二季度网上商店销售额增长疲软13%，第三季度同比指引中点疲软13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力。亚马逊已确立市场地位的在线零售。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到2023年，电子商务的份额将从2020年的18%达到22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、作为忠实客户的庞大Prime会员基础以及坚实的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，正如其与第三方卖家的电子商务市场的崛起所证明的那样。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，持续致力于增长并以不断增长的数据量为基础。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth<blockquote>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</blockquote> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.<blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，加速了向电子商务的采用。然而，尽管2021年第二季度在线商店增长同比放缓13%，而第一季度为41%，但我们相信该公司将继续受益于电子商务采用率不断上升的长期推动力。</blockquote> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.<blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向在线购买，电子商务销售额的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将反弹7.2%。因此，2021年电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%实现正常化增长，渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = C x A<blockquote>*B=C x A</blockquote> Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.<blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争优势。更具体地说，很难在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上赢得公司的支持。显然，该公司的Prime会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司具有强大的吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也推动消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Backlinko<blockquote>资料来源：Backlinko</blockquote> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>除了Prime会员之外，该公司还能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，自2017年以来新增卖家330万人，即每天3,718人。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已确立了自己作为市场主导者的地位，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于第二接近的竞争对手。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Marketing Charts<blockquote>资料来源：营销图表</blockquote> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>如下表所示，其在不同产品类别和市场中的市场领导地位相当广泛。例如，其消费品和消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务总销售额的50.2%，占零售总额的26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: eMarketer<blockquote>资料来源：eMarketer</blockquote> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.<blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌(GOOG)和苹果(AAPL)，并继续通过新一代产品和软件更新来开发该产品。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据Echo产品系列103美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为39.4亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.<blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的不断增长，我们预计这一产品广度将继续扩大，并通过产品多样性为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.<blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有成熟的客户群和忠诚的Prime会员生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛的市场领导地位和广泛的产品广度的庞大卖家基础，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店增长是基于我们对其市场份额的预期（基于全球电子商务销售额的5年平均值）为4.5%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>零售销售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>16.2%<blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.9%<blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.3%<blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11.5%<blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.4%<blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.8%<blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.0%<blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入('d')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>91.43<blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></td> <td>108.35<blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>18.5%<blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额('e')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.0%<blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.1%<blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.2%<blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.6%<blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = A x C<blockquote>*B=A x C</blockquote> *D = B x E<blockquote>*D=B x E</blockquote> Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The Rise of Third-party Seller Services<blockquote>第三方卖家服务的兴起</blockquote> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.<blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和运输业务，这已成为一条难以逾越的护城河，很少有其他公司拥有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要送货提供商合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供的计划使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单。</blockquote> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.<blockquote>通过亚马逊物流（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的运营中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金以及相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、货件跟踪和报告。</blockquote> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.<blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更大的灵活性和控制力、更强大的品牌影响力和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的比例不断上升，达到总销售额的62%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: FourWeekMBA<blockquote>资料来源：FourWeekMBA</blockquote> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.<blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和运输网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和UPS竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其交付网络以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国运送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: WebFX<blockquote>来源：WebFX</blockquote> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.<blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，即将于2021年在密苏里州开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输大型客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020年，该公司宣布了7个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州600,000平方英尺的设施、田纳西州855,000平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州625,000平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CNBC<blockquote>资料来源：CNBC</blockquote> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.<blockquote>总体而言，这些都是该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面的优势的因素之一。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数人或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，公司的计划扩张将继续增强其物流网络并保持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista<blockquote>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</blockquote> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.<blockquote>我们预测了该公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，亚马逊的第三方商品销售总额预计将在过去5年的平均增长率为9%。此外，我们还预测，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的27.3%增长1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的60%至75%之间，低于AWS的80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率37%由于与占总销售额60%的销售成本相关的高成本。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额('b')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.6%<blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.5%<blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.4%<blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.0%<blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.9%<blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.5%<blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.9%<blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21%<blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11%<blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></td> <td>16%<blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊商城）GMV('c')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>103<blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></td> <td>130<blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></td> <td>160<blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></td> <td>200<blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></td> <td>295<blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></td> <td>353<blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></td> <td>443<blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></td> <td>553<blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>26.2%<blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>23.1%<blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.5%<blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.8%<blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.3%<blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>% Of Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>佔收入百分比（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.3%<blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>24.5%<blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.7%<blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.9%<blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.3%<blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.8%<blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>28.1%<blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9.9%<blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9.0%<blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>0.6%<blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.5%<blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.99<blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.88<blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>38.7%<blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> *C = A x B<blockquote>*C=A × B</blockquote> *E = C x D<blockquote>*E=C x D</blockquote> Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth<blockquote>AWS按数据量增长增长</blockquote> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.<blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有Netflix(NFLX)、Verizon(VZ)、Capital One(COF)、麦当劳(MCD)等著名大客户。2020年AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，占据云基础设施市场31.8%的市场份额。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已发展成为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软(MSFT)和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.<blockquote>到2025年，全球数据量将增长23%，这支撑了云基础设施市场的快速增长，因为随着数据分析、5G和物联网的兴起，世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.<blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长基于到2025年数据量以23%的CAGR增长，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>*A=B x C资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.<blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS，AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，例如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，以构建基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用区，并计划再推出15个可用区来支持其云增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Canalys、Khaveen投资</blockquote> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.<blockquote>总而言之，我们基于市场份额预测假设来预测AWS的收入增长，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢削弱，但在利用AWS的稳固大客户关系的支持下仍保持其市场领先地位。根据到2023年30.7%的市场份额预测，我们预计AWS收入将增长至815亿美元。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>AWS Forecasts<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>AWS预测</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Market Share<blockquote><tr><td>AWS市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>32.6%<blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.3%<blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.8%<blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.0%<blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>30.7%<blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><tr><td>AWS收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.<blockquote>虽然AWS仅占其总收入的11%，但与其他公司部门的2.8%相比，其29%的高利润率使AWS在2020年占营业收入的59%，这凸显了AWS对其利润的重要性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk<blockquote>反垄断和数据隐私罚款风险</blockquote> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.<blockquote>民主党的报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家那里获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为40%。由于卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取额外费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，由众议院议员组成的两党小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司在一系列广泛的反垄断改革下对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.<blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊遭受了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临8.88亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反了欧盟的通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR允许罚款高达亚马逊收入的4%，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊2020年213亿美元收入的4.2%。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.<blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其利润率不断上升，因为由于其利润率更高的云业务的卓越增长，其净利润率也有所上升。AWS部门的营业利润率高达29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为2.8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.<blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有良好且强大的现金产生能力，过去5年的平均自由现金流利润率为3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购Whole Foods，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于利润率的上升，因为其利润更高的AWS业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.<blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其偿还债务的强大能力。2020年其净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着AWS的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去5年中从32倍稳步上升。</blockquote> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.<blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了DCF估值，因为该公司过去拥有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到的行业平均EV/EBITDA为27.64倍，如下表所示。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Company<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>公司</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>EV/EBITDA<blockquote><td>EV/EBITDA</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>28.57x<blockquote><td>28.57 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Alibaba (BABA)<blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（父亲）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21.14x<blockquote><td>21.14 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Microsoft<blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.89x<blockquote><td>25.89 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Google<blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.46x<blockquote><td>22.46 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Average<blockquote><tr><td>均值</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>24.52x<blockquote><td>24.52 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: SeekingAlpha<blockquote>来源：SeekingAlpha</blockquote> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.<blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS和其他的收入细分总结如下。网上商店预测源自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售额增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场中的第三方卖家GMV份额，并假设其从佣金和相关费用中获得%的收入。基于不断增长的数据量预测，AWS收入来自云市场增长。其他细分市场基于其平均3年增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，并从2027年的12.3%逐步下调，到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务和云计算市场将更加成熟。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Online stores<blockquote><tr><td>在线商店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Physical stores<blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>17.22<blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.19<blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></td> <td>16.23<blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.40<blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></td> <td>18.55<blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.38<blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>196.9%<blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-0.2%<blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-5.6%<blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Subscription services<blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>14.17<blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.21<blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.21<blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.67<blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.68<blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></td> <td>65.58<blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.6%<blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS<blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Other<blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>10.11<blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.09<blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.45<blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.27<blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.60<blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.48<blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>117.4%<blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.4%<blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>52.2%<blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total<blockquote><tr><td>总的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>232.9<blockquote><td>232.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.53<blockquote><td>280.53</td></blockquote></td> <td>386.07<blockquote><td>386.07</td></blockquote></td> <td>447.0<blockquote><td>447.0</td></blockquote></td> <td>545.9<blockquote><td>545.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>669.1<blockquote><td>669.1</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>总增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>30.9%<blockquote><td>30.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.5%<blockquote><td>20.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.6%<blockquote><td>37.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.8%<blockquote><td>15.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.1%<blockquote><td>22.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.6%<blockquote><td>22.6%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.<blockquote>基于12.7%的贴现率（公司的WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为36.9%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：卡文投资</blockquote> Verdict<blockquote>裁决</blockquote> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.<blockquote>总之，我们分析了该公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和AWS。虽然加速增长最终结束，但作为电子商务领域成熟且占主导地位的市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为转向电子商务，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比预计将继续上升，预计到2023年将达到22%。该公司的Prime会员为其提供了大约占美国人口一半的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和运输网络，亚马逊FBA在其在线市场上看到第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户有着密切的关系，管理层也不断致力于满足该细分市场不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预计2021年增长正常化，但我们认为其前景继续受到电子商务和云计算市场不断增长的提振，并将我们的增长率预测修正为2021年的15.8%，随后修正为2020年的22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为购买目标价格为$4,363.96.</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143120804","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.\nWhile growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.\nAWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.\nWe revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.\n\n4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nSince our previous coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.\nDespite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3 guidance of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.\nSource: Amazon\nE-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth\nAmazon's online store sales have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.\nAccording to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to reach 22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.\n\n\n\nGlobal E-Commerce Market ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Global Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\n\n* B = C x A\nSource: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments\nAmazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.\nSource: Backlinko\nIn addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently attract sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.\nSource: Marketing Charts\nIts market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer & consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel & accessories, books music & video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.\nSource: eMarketer\nAmong the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having purchased electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker units and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average price of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.\nAll in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln products excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.\nThus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.\n\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\nGrowth %\n16.2%\n20.9%\n17.3%\n11.5%\n32.4%\n2.8%\n8.1%\n10.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')\n91.43\n108.35\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n18.5%\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')\n5.0%\n4.5%\n4.1%\n4.2%\n4.6%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n\n\n\n* B = A x C\n*D = B x E\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThe Rise of Third-party Seller Services\nAnother major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.\nWith Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.\nSelling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately provides more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising share of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.\nSource: FourWeekMBA\nThe chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it enhances its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business delivered 1.9 bln packages in the US.\nSource: WebFX\nMoreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming opening of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it announced plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.\nSource: CNBC\nOverall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has free Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.\nSource: Statista\nWe forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which represents 60% of its total sales.\n\n\n\nThird-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nGlobal Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Third Party Market Share ('b')\n5.6%\n5.5%\n5.4%\n6.0%\n6.9%\n7.5%\n8.1%\n8.9%\n\n\nGrowth %\n21%\n-2%\n-2%\n11%\n16%\n9%\n9%\n9%\n\n\nThird-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')\n103\n130\n160\n200\n295\n353\n443\n553\n\n\nGrowth %\n26.2%\n23.1%\n25.0%\n47.5%\n19.8%\n25.3%\n25.0%\n\n\n% Of Revenues ('d')\n22.3%\n24.5%\n26.7%\n26.9%\n27.3%\n27.6%\n27.8%\n28.1%\n\n\nGrowth %\n9.9%\n9.0%\n0.6%\n1.5%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services revenues ('e')\n22.99\n31.88\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n38.7%\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\n\n*C = A x B\n*E = C x D\nSource: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments\nAWS Growth by Data Volume Growth\nAnother key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.\nThe rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nWe projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23% CAGR through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.\n* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently announced a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.\nSource: Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nAll in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.\n\n\n\nAWS Forecasts\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nAWS Market Share\n32.6%\n32.3%\n31.8%\n31.2%\n31.0%\n30.7%\n\n\nAWS Revenues ($ bln)\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nWhile AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.\nSource: Amazon\nAntimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk\nAmazon has been involved in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.\nWhereas in the European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.\nValuation\nThe company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nMore importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the acquisition of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nThe company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.\nTo value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.\n\n\n\nCompany\nEV/EBITDA\n\n\nAmazon\n28.57x\n\n\nAlibaba (BABA)\n21.14x\n\n\nMicrosoft\n25.89x\n\n\nGoogle\n22.46x\n\n\nAverage\n24.52x\n\n\n\nSource: SeekingAlpha\nThe revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.\n\n\n\nAmazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nOnline stores\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPhysical stores\n17.22\n17.19\n16.23\n17.40\n18.55\n19.38\n\n\nGrowth %\n196.9%\n-0.2%\n-5.6%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\nSubscription services\n14.17\n19.21\n25.21\n34.67\n47.68\n65.58\n\n\nGrowth %\n45.8%\n35.6%\n31.2%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n\n\nAWS\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\nOther\n10.11\n14.09\n21.45\n31.27\n45.60\n66.48\n\n\nGrowth %\n117.4%\n39.4%\n52.2%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n\n\nTotal\n232.9\n280.53\n386.07\n447.0\n545.9\n669.1\n\n\nTotal Growth %\n30.9%\n20.5%\n37.6%\n15.8%\n22.1%\n22.6%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nBased on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.\nSource: Khaveen Investments\nVerdict\nIn conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":880462821,"gmtCreate":1631073236063,"gmtModify":1631890147866,"author":{"id":"3581954490902139","authorId":"3581954490902139","name":"LixNg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7055e71f229e48d335f60822a656c0f2","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581954490902139","authorIdStr":"3581954490902139"},"htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880462821","repostId":1143120804,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143120804","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631072080,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143120804?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 11:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143120804","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth ra","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li> <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li> <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li> <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年收入增长超出我们预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍有望从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用DCF分析修改了估值，从3,358.73美元获得了4,303.18美元的新目标价。</li></ul>4kodiak/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</blockquote> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.<blockquote>自我们上次报道以来，亚马逊公司(AMZN)的股价已上涨26%，超出了我们24.5%的收入增长预期，并在2020年底上涨了37.6%，其在线零售业务增长了40%，达到近2000亿美元，第三方服务800亿美元。在本次分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和AWS。</blockquote> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.<blockquote>尽管第二季度网上商店销售额增长疲软13%，第三季度同比指引中点疲软13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力。亚马逊已确立市场地位的在线零售。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到2023年，电子商务的份额将从2020年的18%达到22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、作为忠实客户的庞大Prime会员基础以及坚实的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，正如其与第三方卖家的电子商务市场的崛起所证明的那样。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，持续致力于增长并以不断增长的数据量为基础。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth<blockquote>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</blockquote> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.<blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，加速了向电子商务的采用。然而，尽管2021年第二季度在线商店增长同比放缓13%，而第一季度为41%，但我们相信该公司将继续受益于电子商务采用率不断上升的长期推动力。</blockquote> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.<blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向在线购买，电子商务销售额的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将反弹7.2%。因此，2021年电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%实现正常化增长，渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = C x A<blockquote>*B=C x A</blockquote> Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.<blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争优势。更具体地说，很难在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上赢得公司的支持。显然，该公司的Prime会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司具有强大的吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也推动消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Backlinko<blockquote>资料来源：Backlinko</blockquote> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>除了Prime会员之外，该公司还能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，自2017年以来新增卖家330万人，即每天3,718人。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已确立了自己作为市场主导者的地位，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于第二接近的竞争对手。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Marketing Charts<blockquote>资料来源：营销图表</blockquote> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>如下表所示，其在不同产品类别和市场中的市场领导地位相当广泛。例如，其消费品和消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务总销售额的50.2%，占零售总额的26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: eMarketer<blockquote>资料来源：eMarketer</blockquote> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.<blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌(GOOG)和苹果(AAPL)，并继续通过新一代产品和软件更新来开发该产品。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据Echo产品系列103美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为39.4亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.<blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的不断增长，我们预计这一产品广度将继续扩大，并通过产品多样性为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.<blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有成熟的客户群和忠诚的Prime会员生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛的市场领导地位和广泛的产品广度的庞大卖家基础，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店增长是基于我们对其市场份额的预期（基于全球电子商务销售额的5年平均值）为4.5%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>零售销售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>16.2%<blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.9%<blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.3%<blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11.5%<blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.4%<blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.8%<blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.0%<blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入('d')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>91.43<blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></td> <td>108.35<blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>18.5%<blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额('e')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.0%<blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.1%<blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.2%<blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.6%<blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = A x C<blockquote>*B=A x C</blockquote> *D = B x E<blockquote>*D=B x E</blockquote> Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The Rise of Third-party Seller Services<blockquote>第三方卖家服务的兴起</blockquote> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.<blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和运输业务，这已成为一条难以逾越的护城河，很少有其他公司拥有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要送货提供商合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供的计划使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单。</blockquote> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.<blockquote>通过亚马逊物流（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的运营中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金以及相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、货件跟踪和报告。</blockquote> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.<blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更大的灵活性和控制力、更强大的品牌影响力和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的比例不断上升，达到总销售额的62%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: FourWeekMBA<blockquote>资料来源：FourWeekMBA</blockquote> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.<blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和运输网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和UPS竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其交付网络以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国运送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: WebFX<blockquote>来源：WebFX</blockquote> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.<blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，即将于2021年在密苏里州开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输大型客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020年，该公司宣布了7个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州600,000平方英尺的设施、田纳西州855,000平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州625,000平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CNBC<blockquote>资料来源：CNBC</blockquote> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.<blockquote>总体而言，这些都是该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面的优势的因素之一。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数人或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，公司的计划扩张将继续增强其物流网络并保持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista<blockquote>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</blockquote> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.<blockquote>我们预测了该公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，亚马逊的第三方商品销售总额预计将在过去5年的平均增长率为9%。此外，我们还预测，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的27.3%增长1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的60%至75%之间，低于AWS的80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率37%由于与占总销售额60%的销售成本相关的高成本。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额('b')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.6%<blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.5%<blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.4%<blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.0%<blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.9%<blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.5%<blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.9%<blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21%<blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11%<blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></td> <td>16%<blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊商城）GMV('c')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>103<blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></td> <td>130<blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></td> <td>160<blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></td> <td>200<blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></td> <td>295<blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></td> <td>353<blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></td> <td>443<blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></td> <td>553<blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>26.2%<blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>23.1%<blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.5%<blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.8%<blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.3%<blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>% Of Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>佔收入百分比（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.3%<blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>24.5%<blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.7%<blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.9%<blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.3%<blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.8%<blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>28.1%<blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9.9%<blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9.0%<blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>0.6%<blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.5%<blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.99<blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.88<blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>38.7%<blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> *C = A x B<blockquote>*C=A × B</blockquote> *E = C x D<blockquote>*E=C x D</blockquote> Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth<blockquote>AWS按数据量增长增长</blockquote> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.<blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有Netflix(NFLX)、Verizon(VZ)、Capital One(COF)、麦当劳(MCD)等著名大客户。2020年AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，占据云基础设施市场31.8%的市场份额。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已发展成为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软(MSFT)和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.<blockquote>到2025年，全球数据量将增长23%，这支撑了云基础设施市场的快速增长，因为随着数据分析、5G和物联网的兴起，世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.<blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长基于到2025年数据量以23%的CAGR增长，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>*A=B x C资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.<blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS，AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，例如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，以构建基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用区，并计划再推出15个可用区来支持其云增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Canalys、Khaveen投资</blockquote> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.<blockquote>总而言之，我们基于市场份额预测假设来预测AWS的收入增长，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢削弱，但在利用AWS的稳固大客户关系的支持下仍保持其市场领先地位。根据到2023年30.7%的市场份额预测，我们预计AWS收入将增长至815亿美元。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>AWS Forecasts<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>AWS预测</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Market Share<blockquote><tr><td>AWS市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>32.6%<blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.3%<blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.8%<blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.0%<blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>30.7%<blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><tr><td>AWS收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.<blockquote>虽然AWS仅占其总收入的11%，但与其他公司部门的2.8%相比，其29%的高利润率使AWS在2020年占营业收入的59%，这凸显了AWS对其利润的重要性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk<blockquote>反垄断和数据隐私罚款风险</blockquote> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.<blockquote>民主党的报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家那里获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为40%。由于卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取额外费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，由众议院议员组成的两党小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司在一系列广泛的反垄断改革下对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.<blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊遭受了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临8.88亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反了欧盟的通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR允许罚款高达亚马逊收入的4%，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊2020年213亿美元收入的4.2%。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.<blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其利润率不断上升，因为由于其利润率更高的云业务的卓越增长，其净利润率也有所上升。AWS部门的营业利润率高达29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为2.8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.<blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有良好且强大的现金产生能力，过去5年的平均自由现金流利润率为3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购Whole Foods，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于利润率的上升，因为其利润更高的AWS业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.<blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其偿还债务的强大能力。2020年其净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着AWS的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去5年中从32倍稳步上升。</blockquote> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.<blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了DCF估值，因为该公司过去拥有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到的行业平均EV/EBITDA为27.64倍，如下表所示。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Company<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>公司</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>EV/EBITDA<blockquote><td>EV/EBITDA</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>28.57x<blockquote><td>28.57 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Alibaba (BABA)<blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（父亲）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21.14x<blockquote><td>21.14 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Microsoft<blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.89x<blockquote><td>25.89 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Google<blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.46x<blockquote><td>22.46 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Average<blockquote><tr><td>均值</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>24.52x<blockquote><td>24.52 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: SeekingAlpha<blockquote>来源：SeekingAlpha</blockquote> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.<blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS和其他的收入细分总结如下。网上商店预测源自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售额增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场中的第三方卖家GMV份额，并假设其从佣金和相关费用中获得%的收入。基于不断增长的数据量预测，AWS收入来自云市场增长。其他细分市场基于其平均3年增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，并从2027年的12.3%逐步下调，到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务和云计算市场将更加成熟。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Online stores<blockquote><tr><td>在线商店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Physical stores<blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>17.22<blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.19<blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></td> <td>16.23<blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.40<blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></td> <td>18.55<blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.38<blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>196.9%<blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-0.2%<blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-5.6%<blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Subscription services<blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>14.17<blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.21<blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.21<blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.67<blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.68<blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></td> <td>65.58<blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.6%<blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS<blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Other<blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>10.11<blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.09<blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.45<blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.27<blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.60<blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.48<blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>117.4%<blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.4%<blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>52.2%<blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total<blockquote><tr><td>总的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>232.9<blockquote><td>232.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.53<blockquote><td>280.53</td></blockquote></td> <td>386.07<blockquote><td>386.07</td></blockquote></td> <td>447.0<blockquote><td>447.0</td></blockquote></td> <td>545.9<blockquote><td>545.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>669.1<blockquote><td>669.1</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>总增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>30.9%<blockquote><td>30.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.5%<blockquote><td>20.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.6%<blockquote><td>37.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.8%<blockquote><td>15.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.1%<blockquote><td>22.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.6%<blockquote><td>22.6%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.<blockquote>基于12.7%的贴现率（公司的WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为36.9%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：卡文投资</blockquote> Verdict<blockquote>裁决</blockquote> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.<blockquote>总之，我们分析了该公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和AWS。虽然加速增长最终结束，但作为电子商务领域成熟且占主导地位的市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为转向电子商务，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比预计将继续上升，预计到2023年将达到22%。该公司的Prime会员为其提供了大约占美国人口一半的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和运输网络，亚马逊FBA在其在线市场上看到第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户有着密切的关系，管理层也不断致力于满足该细分市场不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预计2021年增长正常化，但我们认为其前景继续受到电子商务和云计算市场不断增长的提振，并将我们的增长率预测修正为2021年的15.8%，随后修正为2020年的22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为购买目标价格为$4,363.96.</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-09-08 11:34\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li> <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li> <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li> <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年收入增长超出我们预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍有望从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用DCF分析修改了估值，从3,358.73美元获得了4,303.18美元的新目标价。</li></ul>4kodiak/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</blockquote> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.<blockquote>自我们上次报道以来，亚马逊公司(AMZN)的股价已上涨26%，超出了我们24.5%的收入增长预期，并在2020年底上涨了37.6%，其在线零售业务增长了40%，达到近2000亿美元，第三方服务800亿美元。在本次分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和AWS。</blockquote> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.<blockquote>尽管第二季度网上商店销售额增长疲软13%，第三季度同比指引中点疲软13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力。亚马逊已确立市场地位的在线零售。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到2023年，电子商务的份额将从2020年的18%达到22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、作为忠实客户的庞大Prime会员基础以及坚实的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，正如其与第三方卖家的电子商务市场的崛起所证明的那样。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，持续致力于增长并以不断增长的数据量为基础。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth<blockquote>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</blockquote> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.<blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，加速了向电子商务的采用。然而，尽管2021年第二季度在线商店增长同比放缓13%，而第一季度为41%，但我们相信该公司将继续受益于电子商务采用率不断上升的长期推动力。</blockquote> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.<blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向在线购买，电子商务销售额的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将反弹7.2%。因此，2021年电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%实现正常化增长，渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = C x A<blockquote>*B=C x A</blockquote> Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.<blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争优势。更具体地说，很难在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上赢得公司的支持。显然，该公司的Prime会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司具有强大的吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也推动消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Backlinko<blockquote>资料来源：Backlinko</blockquote> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>除了Prime会员之外，该公司还能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，自2017年以来新增卖家330万人，即每天3,718人。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已确立了自己作为市场主导者的地位，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于第二接近的竞争对手。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Marketing Charts<blockquote>资料来源：营销图表</blockquote> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>如下表所示，其在不同产品类别和市场中的市场领导地位相当广泛。例如，其消费品和消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务总销售额的50.2%，占零售总额的26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: eMarketer<blockquote>资料来源：eMarketer</blockquote> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.<blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌(GOOG)和苹果(AAPL)，并继续通过新一代产品和软件更新来开发该产品。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据Echo产品系列103美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为39.4亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.<blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的不断增长，我们预计这一产品广度将继续扩大，并通过产品多样性为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.<blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有成熟的客户群和忠诚的Prime会员生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛的市场领导地位和广泛的产品广度的庞大卖家基础，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店增长是基于我们对其市场份额的预期（基于全球电子商务销售额的5年平均值）为4.5%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>零售销售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>16.2%<blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.9%<blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.3%<blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11.5%<blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.4%<blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.8%<blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.0%<blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入('d')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>91.43<blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></td> <td>108.35<blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>18.5%<blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额('e')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.0%<blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.1%<blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.2%<blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.6%<blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = A x C<blockquote>*B=A x C</blockquote> *D = B x E<blockquote>*D=B x E</blockquote> Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The Rise of Third-party Seller Services<blockquote>第三方卖家服务的兴起</blockquote> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.<blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和运输业务，这已成为一条难以逾越的护城河，很少有其他公司拥有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要送货提供商合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供的计划使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单。</blockquote> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.<blockquote>通过亚马逊物流（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的运营中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金以及相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、货件跟踪和报告。</blockquote> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.<blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更大的灵活性和控制力、更强大的品牌影响力和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的比例不断上升，达到总销售额的62%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: FourWeekMBA<blockquote>资料来源：FourWeekMBA</blockquote> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.<blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和运输网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和UPS竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其交付网络以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国运送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: WebFX<blockquote>来源：WebFX</blockquote> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.<blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，即将于2021年在密苏里州开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输大型客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020年，该公司宣布了7个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州600,000平方英尺的设施、田纳西州855,000平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州625,000平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CNBC<blockquote>资料来源：CNBC</blockquote> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.<blockquote>总体而言，这些都是该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面的优势的因素之一。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数人或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，公司的计划扩张将继续增强其物流网络并保持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista<blockquote>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</blockquote> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.<blockquote>我们预测了该公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，亚马逊的第三方商品销售总额预计将在过去5年的平均增长率为9%。此外，我们还预测，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的27.3%增长1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的60%至75%之间，低于AWS的80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率37%由于与占总销售额60%的销售成本相关的高成本。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额('b')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.6%<blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.5%<blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.4%<blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.0%<blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.9%<blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.5%<blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.9%<blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21%<blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11%<blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></td> <td>16%<blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊商城）GMV('c')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>103<blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></td> <td>130<blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></td> <td>160<blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></td> <td>200<blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></td> <td>295<blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></td> <td>353<blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></td> <td>443<blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></td> <td>553<blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>26.2%<blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>23.1%<blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.5%<blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.8%<blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.3%<blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>% Of Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>佔收入百分比（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.3%<blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>24.5%<blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.7%<blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.9%<blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.3%<blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.8%<blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>28.1%<blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9.9%<blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9.0%<blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>0.6%<blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.5%<blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.99<blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.88<blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>38.7%<blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> *C = A x B<blockquote>*C=A × B</blockquote> *E = C x D<blockquote>*E=C x D</blockquote> Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth<blockquote>AWS按数据量增长增长</blockquote> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.<blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有Netflix(NFLX)、Verizon(VZ)、Capital One(COF)、麦当劳(MCD)等著名大客户。2020年AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，占据云基础设施市场31.8%的市场份额。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已发展成为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软(MSFT)和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.<blockquote>到2025年，全球数据量将增长23%，这支撑了云基础设施市场的快速增长，因为随着数据分析、5G和物联网的兴起，世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.<blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长基于到2025年数据量以23%的CAGR增长，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>*A=B x C资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.<blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS，AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，例如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，以构建基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用区，并计划再推出15个可用区来支持其云增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Canalys、Khaveen投资</blockquote> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.<blockquote>总而言之，我们基于市场份额预测假设来预测AWS的收入增长，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢削弱，但在利用AWS的稳固大客户关系的支持下仍保持其市场领先地位。根据到2023年30.7%的市场份额预测，我们预计AWS收入将增长至815亿美元。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>AWS Forecasts<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>AWS预测</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Market Share<blockquote><tr><td>AWS市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>32.6%<blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.3%<blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.8%<blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.0%<blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>30.7%<blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><tr><td>AWS收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.<blockquote>虽然AWS仅占其总收入的11%，但与其他公司部门的2.8%相比，其29%的高利润率使AWS在2020年占营业收入的59%，这凸显了AWS对其利润的重要性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk<blockquote>反垄断和数据隐私罚款风险</blockquote> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.<blockquote>民主党的报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家那里获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为40%。由于卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取额外费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，由众议院议员组成的两党小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司在一系列广泛的反垄断改革下对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.<blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊遭受了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临8.88亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反了欧盟的通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR允许罚款高达亚马逊收入的4%，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊2020年213亿美元收入的4.2%。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.<blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其利润率不断上升，因为由于其利润率更高的云业务的卓越增长，其净利润率也有所上升。AWS部门的营业利润率高达29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为2.8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.<blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有良好且强大的现金产生能力，过去5年的平均自由现金流利润率为3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购Whole Foods，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于利润率的上升，因为其利润更高的AWS业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.<blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其偿还债务的强大能力。2020年其净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着AWS的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去5年中从32倍稳步上升。</blockquote> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.<blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了DCF估值，因为该公司过去拥有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到的行业平均EV/EBITDA为27.64倍，如下表所示。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Company<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>公司</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>EV/EBITDA<blockquote><td>EV/EBITDA</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>28.57x<blockquote><td>28.57 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Alibaba (BABA)<blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（父亲）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21.14x<blockquote><td>21.14 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Microsoft<blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.89x<blockquote><td>25.89 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Google<blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.46x<blockquote><td>22.46 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Average<blockquote><tr><td>均值</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>24.52x<blockquote><td>24.52 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: SeekingAlpha<blockquote>来源：SeekingAlpha</blockquote> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.<blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS和其他的收入细分总结如下。网上商店预测源自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售额增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场中的第三方卖家GMV份额，并假设其从佣金和相关费用中获得%的收入。基于不断增长的数据量预测，AWS收入来自云市场增长。其他细分市场基于其平均3年增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，并从2027年的12.3%逐步下调，到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务和云计算市场将更加成熟。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Online stores<blockquote><tr><td>在线商店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Physical stores<blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>17.22<blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.19<blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></td> <td>16.23<blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.40<blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></td> <td>18.55<blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.38<blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>196.9%<blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-0.2%<blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-5.6%<blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Subscription services<blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>14.17<blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.21<blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.21<blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.67<blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.68<blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></td> <td>65.58<blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.6%<blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS<blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Other<blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>10.11<blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.09<blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.45<blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.27<blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.60<blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.48<blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>117.4%<blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.4%<blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>52.2%<blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total<blockquote><tr><td>总的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>232.9<blockquote><td>232.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.53<blockquote><td>280.53</td></blockquote></td> <td>386.07<blockquote><td>386.07</td></blockquote></td> <td>447.0<blockquote><td>447.0</td></blockquote></td> <td>545.9<blockquote><td>545.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>669.1<blockquote><td>669.1</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>总增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>30.9%<blockquote><td>30.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.5%<blockquote><td>20.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.6%<blockquote><td>37.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.8%<blockquote><td>15.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.1%<blockquote><td>22.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.6%<blockquote><td>22.6%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.<blockquote>基于12.7%的贴现率（公司的WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为36.9%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：卡文投资</blockquote> Verdict<blockquote>裁决</blockquote> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.<blockquote>总之，我们分析了该公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和AWS。虽然加速增长最终结束，但作为电子商务领域成熟且占主导地位的市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为转向电子商务，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比预计将继续上升，预计到2023年将达到22%。该公司的Prime会员为其提供了大约占美国人口一半的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和运输网络，亚马逊FBA在其在线市场上看到第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户有着密切的关系，管理层也不断致力于满足该细分市场不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预计2021年增长正常化，但我们认为其前景继续受到电子商务和云计算市场不断增长的提振，并将我们的增长率预测修正为2021年的15.8%，随后修正为2020年的22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为购买目标价格为$4,363.96.</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143120804","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.\nWhile growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.\nAWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.\nWe revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.\n\n4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nSince our previous coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.\nDespite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3 guidance of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.\nSource: Amazon\nE-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth\nAmazon's online store sales have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.\nAccording to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to reach 22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.\n\n\n\nGlobal E-Commerce Market ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Global Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\n\n* B = C x A\nSource: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments\nAmazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.\nSource: Backlinko\nIn addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently attract sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.\nSource: Marketing Charts\nIts market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer & consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel & accessories, books music & video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.\nSource: eMarketer\nAmong the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having purchased electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker units and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average price of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.\nAll in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln products excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.\nThus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.\n\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\nGrowth %\n16.2%\n20.9%\n17.3%\n11.5%\n32.4%\n2.8%\n8.1%\n10.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')\n91.43\n108.35\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n18.5%\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')\n5.0%\n4.5%\n4.1%\n4.2%\n4.6%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n\n\n\n* B = A x C\n*D = B x E\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThe Rise of Third-party Seller Services\nAnother major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.\nWith Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.\nSelling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately provides more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising share of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.\nSource: FourWeekMBA\nThe chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it enhances its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business delivered 1.9 bln packages in the US.\nSource: WebFX\nMoreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming opening of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it announced plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.\nSource: CNBC\nOverall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has free Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.\nSource: Statista\nWe forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which represents 60% of its total sales.\n\n\n\nThird-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nGlobal Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Third Party Market Share ('b')\n5.6%\n5.5%\n5.4%\n6.0%\n6.9%\n7.5%\n8.1%\n8.9%\n\n\nGrowth %\n21%\n-2%\n-2%\n11%\n16%\n9%\n9%\n9%\n\n\nThird-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')\n103\n130\n160\n200\n295\n353\n443\n553\n\n\nGrowth %\n26.2%\n23.1%\n25.0%\n47.5%\n19.8%\n25.3%\n25.0%\n\n\n% Of Revenues ('d')\n22.3%\n24.5%\n26.7%\n26.9%\n27.3%\n27.6%\n27.8%\n28.1%\n\n\nGrowth %\n9.9%\n9.0%\n0.6%\n1.5%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services revenues ('e')\n22.99\n31.88\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n38.7%\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\n\n*C = A x B\n*E = C x D\nSource: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments\nAWS Growth by Data Volume Growth\nAnother key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.\nThe rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nWe projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23% CAGR through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.\n* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently announced a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.\nSource: Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nAll in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.\n\n\n\nAWS Forecasts\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nAWS Market Share\n32.6%\n32.3%\n31.8%\n31.2%\n31.0%\n30.7%\n\n\nAWS Revenues ($ bln)\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nWhile AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.\nSource: Amazon\nAntimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk\nAmazon has been involved in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.\nWhereas in the European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.\nValuation\nThe company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nMore importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the acquisition of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nThe company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.\nTo value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.\n\n\n\nCompany\nEV/EBITDA\n\n\nAmazon\n28.57x\n\n\nAlibaba (BABA)\n21.14x\n\n\nMicrosoft\n25.89x\n\n\nGoogle\n22.46x\n\n\nAverage\n24.52x\n\n\n\nSource: SeekingAlpha\nThe revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.\n\n\n\nAmazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nOnline stores\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPhysical stores\n17.22\n17.19\n16.23\n17.40\n18.55\n19.38\n\n\nGrowth %\n196.9%\n-0.2%\n-5.6%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\nSubscription services\n14.17\n19.21\n25.21\n34.67\n47.68\n65.58\n\n\nGrowth %\n45.8%\n35.6%\n31.2%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n\n\nAWS\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\nOther\n10.11\n14.09\n21.45\n31.27\n45.60\n66.48\n\n\nGrowth %\n117.4%\n39.4%\n52.2%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n\n\nTotal\n232.9\n280.53\n386.07\n447.0\n545.9\n669.1\n\n\nTotal Growth %\n30.9%\n20.5%\n37.6%\n15.8%\n22.1%\n22.6%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nBased on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.\nSource: Khaveen Investments\nVerdict\nIn conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":880466955,"gmtCreate":1631073142377,"gmtModify":1631890465933,"author":{"id":"3586774718687945","authorId":"3586774718687945","name":"Stchua","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6da38be819096178bf3d64e02165e0","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3586774718687945","authorIdStr":"3586774718687945"},"htmlText":"[Smile]&nbsp;","listText":"[Smile]&nbsp;","text":"[Smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880466955","repostId":1143120804,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143120804","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631072080,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143120804?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 11:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143120804","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth ra","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li> <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li> <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li> <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年收入增长超出我们预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍有望从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用DCF分析修改了估值，从3,358.73美元获得了4,303.18美元的新目标价。</li></ul>4kodiak/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</blockquote> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.<blockquote>自我们上次报道以来，亚马逊公司(AMZN)的股价已上涨26%，超出了我们24.5%的收入增长预期，并在2020年底上涨了37.6%，其在线零售业务增长了40%，达到近2000亿美元，第三方服务800亿美元。在本次分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和AWS。</blockquote> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.<blockquote>尽管第二季度网上商店销售额增长疲软13%，第三季度同比指引中点疲软13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力。亚马逊已确立市场地位的在线零售。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到2023年，电子商务的份额将从2020年的18%达到22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、作为忠实客户的庞大Prime会员基础以及坚实的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，正如其与第三方卖家的电子商务市场的崛起所证明的那样。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，持续致力于增长并以不断增长的数据量为基础。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth<blockquote>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</blockquote> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.<blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，加速了向电子商务的采用。然而，尽管2021年第二季度在线商店增长同比放缓13%，而第一季度为41%，但我们相信该公司将继续受益于电子商务采用率不断上升的长期推动力。</blockquote> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.<blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向在线购买，电子商务销售额的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将反弹7.2%。因此，2021年电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%实现正常化增长，渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = C x A<blockquote>*B=C x A</blockquote> Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.<blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争优势。更具体地说，很难在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上赢得公司的支持。显然，该公司的Prime会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司具有强大的吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也推动消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Backlinko<blockquote>资料来源：Backlinko</blockquote> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>除了Prime会员之外，该公司还能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，自2017年以来新增卖家330万人，即每天3,718人。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已确立了自己作为市场主导者的地位，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于第二接近的竞争对手。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Marketing Charts<blockquote>资料来源：营销图表</blockquote> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>如下表所示，其在不同产品类别和市场中的市场领导地位相当广泛。例如，其消费品和消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务总销售额的50.2%，占零售总额的26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: eMarketer<blockquote>资料来源：eMarketer</blockquote> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.<blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌(GOOG)和苹果(AAPL)，并继续通过新一代产品和软件更新来开发该产品。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据Echo产品系列103美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为39.4亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.<blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的不断增长，我们预计这一产品广度将继续扩大，并通过产品多样性为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.<blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有成熟的客户群和忠诚的Prime会员生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛的市场领导地位和广泛的产品广度的庞大卖家基础，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店增长是基于我们对其市场份额的预期（基于全球电子商务销售额的5年平均值）为4.5%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>零售销售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>16.2%<blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.9%<blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.3%<blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11.5%<blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.4%<blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.8%<blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.0%<blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入('d')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>91.43<blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></td> <td>108.35<blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>18.5%<blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额('e')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.0%<blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.1%<blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.2%<blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.6%<blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = A x C<blockquote>*B=A x C</blockquote> *D = B x E<blockquote>*D=B x E</blockquote> Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The Rise of Third-party Seller Services<blockquote>第三方卖家服务的兴起</blockquote> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.<blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和运输业务，这已成为一条难以逾越的护城河，很少有其他公司拥有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要送货提供商合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供的计划使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单。</blockquote> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.<blockquote>通过亚马逊物流（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的运营中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金以及相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、货件跟踪和报告。</blockquote> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.<blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更大的灵活性和控制力、更强大的品牌影响力和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的比例不断上升，达到总销售额的62%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: FourWeekMBA<blockquote>资料来源：FourWeekMBA</blockquote> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.<blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和运输网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和UPS竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其交付网络以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国运送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: WebFX<blockquote>来源：WebFX</blockquote> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.<blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，即将于2021年在密苏里州开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输大型客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020年，该公司宣布了7个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州600,000平方英尺的设施、田纳西州855,000平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州625,000平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CNBC<blockquote>资料来源：CNBC</blockquote> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.<blockquote>总体而言，这些都是该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面的优势的因素之一。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数人或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，公司的计划扩张将继续增强其物流网络并保持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista<blockquote>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</blockquote> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.<blockquote>我们预测了该公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，亚马逊的第三方商品销售总额预计将在过去5年的平均增长率为9%。此外，我们还预测，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的27.3%增长1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的60%至75%之间，低于AWS的80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率37%由于与占总销售额60%的销售成本相关的高成本。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额('b')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.6%<blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.5%<blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.4%<blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.0%<blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.9%<blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.5%<blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.9%<blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21%<blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11%<blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></td> <td>16%<blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊商城）GMV('c')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>103<blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></td> <td>130<blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></td> <td>160<blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></td> <td>200<blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></td> <td>295<blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></td> <td>353<blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></td> <td>443<blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></td> <td>553<blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>26.2%<blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>23.1%<blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.5%<blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.8%<blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.3%<blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>% Of Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>佔收入百分比（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.3%<blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>24.5%<blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.7%<blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.9%<blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.3%<blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.8%<blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>28.1%<blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9.9%<blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9.0%<blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>0.6%<blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.5%<blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.99<blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.88<blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>38.7%<blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> *C = A x B<blockquote>*C=A × B</blockquote> *E = C x D<blockquote>*E=C x D</blockquote> Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth<blockquote>AWS按数据量增长增长</blockquote> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.<blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有Netflix(NFLX)、Verizon(VZ)、Capital One(COF)、麦当劳(MCD)等著名大客户。2020年AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，占据云基础设施市场31.8%的市场份额。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已发展成为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软(MSFT)和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.<blockquote>到2025年，全球数据量将增长23%，这支撑了云基础设施市场的快速增长，因为随着数据分析、5G和物联网的兴起，世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.<blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长基于到2025年数据量以23%的CAGR增长，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>*A=B x C资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.<blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS，AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，例如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，以构建基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用区，并计划再推出15个可用区来支持其云增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Canalys、Khaveen投资</blockquote> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.<blockquote>总而言之，我们基于市场份额预测假设来预测AWS的收入增长，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢削弱，但在利用AWS的稳固大客户关系的支持下仍保持其市场领先地位。根据到2023年30.7%的市场份额预测，我们预计AWS收入将增长至815亿美元。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>AWS Forecasts<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>AWS预测</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Market Share<blockquote><tr><td>AWS市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>32.6%<blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.3%<blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.8%<blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.0%<blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>30.7%<blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><tr><td>AWS收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.<blockquote>虽然AWS仅占其总收入的11%，但与其他公司部门的2.8%相比，其29%的高利润率使AWS在2020年占营业收入的59%，这凸显了AWS对其利润的重要性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk<blockquote>反垄断和数据隐私罚款风险</blockquote> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.<blockquote>民主党的报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家那里获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为40%。由于卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取额外费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，由众议院议员组成的两党小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司在一系列广泛的反垄断改革下对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.<blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊遭受了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临8.88亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反了欧盟的通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR允许罚款高达亚马逊收入的4%，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊2020年213亿美元收入的4.2%。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.<blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其利润率不断上升，因为由于其利润率更高的云业务的卓越增长，其净利润率也有所上升。AWS部门的营业利润率高达29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为2.8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.<blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有良好且强大的现金产生能力，过去5年的平均自由现金流利润率为3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购Whole Foods，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于利润率的上升，因为其利润更高的AWS业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.<blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其偿还债务的强大能力。2020年其净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着AWS的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去5年中从32倍稳步上升。</blockquote> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.<blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了DCF估值，因为该公司过去拥有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到的行业平均EV/EBITDA为27.64倍，如下表所示。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Company<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>公司</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>EV/EBITDA<blockquote><td>EV/EBITDA</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>28.57x<blockquote><td>28.57 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Alibaba (BABA)<blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（父亲）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21.14x<blockquote><td>21.14 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Microsoft<blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.89x<blockquote><td>25.89 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Google<blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.46x<blockquote><td>22.46 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Average<blockquote><tr><td>均值</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>24.52x<blockquote><td>24.52 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: SeekingAlpha<blockquote>来源：SeekingAlpha</blockquote> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.<blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS和其他的收入细分总结如下。网上商店预测源自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售额增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场中的第三方卖家GMV份额，并假设其从佣金和相关费用中获得%的收入。基于不断增长的数据量预测，AWS收入来自云市场增长。其他细分市场基于其平均3年增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，并从2027年的12.3%逐步下调，到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务和云计算市场将更加成熟。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Online stores<blockquote><tr><td>在线商店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Physical stores<blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>17.22<blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.19<blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></td> <td>16.23<blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.40<blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></td> <td>18.55<blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.38<blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>196.9%<blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-0.2%<blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-5.6%<blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Subscription services<blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>14.17<blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.21<blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.21<blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.67<blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.68<blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></td> <td>65.58<blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.6%<blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS<blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Other<blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>10.11<blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.09<blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.45<blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.27<blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.60<blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.48<blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>117.4%<blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.4%<blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>52.2%<blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total<blockquote><tr><td>总的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>232.9<blockquote><td>232.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.53<blockquote><td>280.53</td></blockquote></td> <td>386.07<blockquote><td>386.07</td></blockquote></td> <td>447.0<blockquote><td>447.0</td></blockquote></td> <td>545.9<blockquote><td>545.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>669.1<blockquote><td>669.1</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>总增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>30.9%<blockquote><td>30.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.5%<blockquote><td>20.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.6%<blockquote><td>37.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.8%<blockquote><td>15.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.1%<blockquote><td>22.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.6%<blockquote><td>22.6%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.<blockquote>基于12.7%的贴现率（公司的WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为36.9%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：卡文投资</blockquote> Verdict<blockquote>裁决</blockquote> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.<blockquote>总之，我们分析了该公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和AWS。虽然加速增长最终结束，但作为电子商务领域成熟且占主导地位的市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为转向电子商务，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比预计将继续上升，预计到2023年将达到22%。该公司的Prime会员为其提供了大约占美国人口一半的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和运输网络，亚马逊FBA在其在线市场上看到第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户有着密切的关系，管理层也不断致力于满足该细分市场不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预计2021年增长正常化，但我们认为其前景继续受到电子商务和云计算市场不断增长的提振，并将我们的增长率预测修正为2021年的15.8%，随后修正为2020年的22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为购买目标价格为$4,363.96.</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-09-08 11:34\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li> <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li> <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li> <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年收入增长超出我们预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍有望从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用DCF分析修改了估值，从3,358.73美元获得了4,303.18美元的新目标价。</li></ul>4kodiak/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</blockquote> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.<blockquote>自我们上次报道以来，亚马逊公司(AMZN)的股价已上涨26%，超出了我们24.5%的收入增长预期，并在2020年底上涨了37.6%，其在线零售业务增长了40%，达到近2000亿美元，第三方服务800亿美元。在本次分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和AWS。</blockquote> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.<blockquote>尽管第二季度网上商店销售额增长疲软13%，第三季度同比指引中点疲软13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力。亚马逊已确立市场地位的在线零售。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到2023年，电子商务的份额将从2020年的18%达到22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、作为忠实客户的庞大Prime会员基础以及坚实的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，正如其与第三方卖家的电子商务市场的崛起所证明的那样。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，持续致力于增长并以不断增长的数据量为基础。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth<blockquote>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</blockquote> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.<blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，加速了向电子商务的采用。然而，尽管2021年第二季度在线商店增长同比放缓13%，而第一季度为41%，但我们相信该公司将继续受益于电子商务采用率不断上升的长期推动力。</blockquote> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.<blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向在线购买，电子商务销售额的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将反弹7.2%。因此，2021年电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%实现正常化增长，渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = C x A<blockquote>*B=C x A</blockquote> Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.<blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争优势。更具体地说，很难在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上赢得公司的支持。显然，该公司的Prime会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司具有强大的吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也推动消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Backlinko<blockquote>资料来源：Backlinko</blockquote> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>除了Prime会员之外，该公司还能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，自2017年以来新增卖家330万人，即每天3,718人。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已确立了自己作为市场主导者的地位，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于第二接近的竞争对手。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Marketing Charts<blockquote>资料来源：营销图表</blockquote> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>如下表所示，其在不同产品类别和市场中的市场领导地位相当广泛。例如，其消费品和消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务总销售额的50.2%，占零售总额的26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: eMarketer<blockquote>资料来源：eMarketer</blockquote> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.<blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌(GOOG)和苹果(AAPL)，并继续通过新一代产品和软件更新来开发该产品。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据Echo产品系列103美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为39.4亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.<blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的不断增长，我们预计这一产品广度将继续扩大，并通过产品多样性为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.<blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有成熟的客户群和忠诚的Prime会员生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛的市场领导地位和广泛的产品广度的庞大卖家基础，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店增长是基于我们对其市场份额的预期（基于全球电子商务销售额的5年平均值）为4.5%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>零售销售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>16.2%<blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.9%<blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.3%<blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11.5%<blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.4%<blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.8%<blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.0%<blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入('d')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>91.43<blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></td> <td>108.35<blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>18.5%<blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额('e')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.0%<blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.1%<blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.2%<blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.6%<blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = A x C<blockquote>*B=A x C</blockquote> *D = B x E<blockquote>*D=B x E</blockquote> Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The Rise of Third-party Seller Services<blockquote>第三方卖家服务的兴起</blockquote> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.<blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和运输业务，这已成为一条难以逾越的护城河，很少有其他公司拥有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要送货提供商合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供的计划使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单。</blockquote> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.<blockquote>通过亚马逊物流（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的运营中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金以及相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、货件跟踪和报告。</blockquote> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.<blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更大的灵活性和控制力、更强大的品牌影响力和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的比例不断上升，达到总销售额的62%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: FourWeekMBA<blockquote>资料来源：FourWeekMBA</blockquote> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.<blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和运输网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和UPS竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其交付网络以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国运送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: WebFX<blockquote>来源：WebFX</blockquote> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.<blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，即将于2021年在密苏里州开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输大型客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020年，该公司宣布了7个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州600,000平方英尺的设施、田纳西州855,000平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州625,000平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CNBC<blockquote>资料来源：CNBC</blockquote> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.<blockquote>总体而言，这些都是该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面的优势的因素之一。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数人或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，公司的计划扩张将继续增强其物流网络并保持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista<blockquote>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</blockquote> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.<blockquote>我们预测了该公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，亚马逊的第三方商品销售总额预计将在过去5年的平均增长率为9%。此外，我们还预测，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的27.3%增长1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的60%至75%之间，低于AWS的80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率37%由于与占总销售额60%的销售成本相关的高成本。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额('b')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.6%<blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.5%<blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.4%<blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.0%<blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.9%<blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.5%<blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.9%<blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21%<blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11%<blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></td> <td>16%<blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊商城）GMV('c')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>103<blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></td> <td>130<blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></td> <td>160<blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></td> <td>200<blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></td> <td>295<blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></td> <td>353<blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></td> <td>443<blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></td> <td>553<blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>26.2%<blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>23.1%<blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.5%<blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.8%<blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.3%<blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>% Of Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>佔收入百分比（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.3%<blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>24.5%<blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.7%<blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.9%<blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.3%<blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.8%<blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>28.1%<blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9.9%<blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9.0%<blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>0.6%<blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.5%<blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.99<blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.88<blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>38.7%<blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> *C = A x B<blockquote>*C=A × B</blockquote> *E = C x D<blockquote>*E=C x D</blockquote> Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth<blockquote>AWS按数据量增长增长</blockquote> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.<blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有Netflix(NFLX)、Verizon(VZ)、Capital One(COF)、麦当劳(MCD)等著名大客户。2020年AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，占据云基础设施市场31.8%的市场份额。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已发展成为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软(MSFT)和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.<blockquote>到2025年，全球数据量将增长23%，这支撑了云基础设施市场的快速增长，因为随着数据分析、5G和物联网的兴起，世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.<blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长基于到2025年数据量以23%的CAGR增长，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>*A=B x C资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.<blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS，AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，例如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，以构建基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用区，并计划再推出15个可用区来支持其云增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Canalys、Khaveen投资</blockquote> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.<blockquote>总而言之，我们基于市场份额预测假设来预测AWS的收入增长，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢削弱，但在利用AWS的稳固大客户关系的支持下仍保持其市场领先地位。根据到2023年30.7%的市场份额预测，我们预计AWS收入将增长至815亿美元。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>AWS Forecasts<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>AWS预测</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Market Share<blockquote><tr><td>AWS市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>32.6%<blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.3%<blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.8%<blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.0%<blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>30.7%<blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><tr><td>AWS收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.<blockquote>虽然AWS仅占其总收入的11%，但与其他公司部门的2.8%相比，其29%的高利润率使AWS在2020年占营业收入的59%，这凸显了AWS对其利润的重要性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk<blockquote>反垄断和数据隐私罚款风险</blockquote> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.<blockquote>民主党的报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家那里获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为40%。由于卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取额外费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，由众议院议员组成的两党小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司在一系列广泛的反垄断改革下对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.<blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊遭受了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临8.88亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反了欧盟的通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR允许罚款高达亚马逊收入的4%，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊2020年213亿美元收入的4.2%。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.<blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其利润率不断上升，因为由于其利润率更高的云业务的卓越增长，其净利润率也有所上升。AWS部门的营业利润率高达29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为2.8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.<blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有良好且强大的现金产生能力，过去5年的平均自由现金流利润率为3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购Whole Foods，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于利润率的上升，因为其利润更高的AWS业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.<blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其偿还债务的强大能力。2020年其净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着AWS的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去5年中从32倍稳步上升。</blockquote> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.<blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了DCF估值，因为该公司过去拥有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到的行业平均EV/EBITDA为27.64倍，如下表所示。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Company<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>公司</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>EV/EBITDA<blockquote><td>EV/EBITDA</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>28.57x<blockquote><td>28.57 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Alibaba (BABA)<blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（父亲）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21.14x<blockquote><td>21.14 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Microsoft<blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.89x<blockquote><td>25.89 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Google<blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.46x<blockquote><td>22.46 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Average<blockquote><tr><td>均值</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>24.52x<blockquote><td>24.52 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: SeekingAlpha<blockquote>来源：SeekingAlpha</blockquote> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.<blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS和其他的收入细分总结如下。网上商店预测源自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售额增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场中的第三方卖家GMV份额，并假设其从佣金和相关费用中获得%的收入。基于不断增长的数据量预测，AWS收入来自云市场增长。其他细分市场基于其平均3年增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，并从2027年的12.3%逐步下调，到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务和云计算市场将更加成熟。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Online stores<blockquote><tr><td>在线商店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Physical stores<blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>17.22<blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.19<blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></td> <td>16.23<blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.40<blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></td> <td>18.55<blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.38<blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>196.9%<blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-0.2%<blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-5.6%<blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Subscription services<blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>14.17<blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.21<blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.21<blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.67<blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.68<blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></td> <td>65.58<blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.6%<blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS<blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Other<blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>10.11<blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.09<blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.45<blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.27<blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.60<blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.48<blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>117.4%<blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.4%<blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>52.2%<blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total<blockquote><tr><td>总的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>232.9<blockquote><td>232.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.53<blockquote><td>280.53</td></blockquote></td> <td>386.07<blockquote><td>386.07</td></blockquote></td> <td>447.0<blockquote><td>447.0</td></blockquote></td> <td>545.9<blockquote><td>545.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>669.1<blockquote><td>669.1</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>总增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>30.9%<blockquote><td>30.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.5%<blockquote><td>20.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.6%<blockquote><td>37.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.8%<blockquote><td>15.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.1%<blockquote><td>22.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.6%<blockquote><td>22.6%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.<blockquote>基于12.7%的贴现率（公司的WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为36.9%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：卡文投资</blockquote> Verdict<blockquote>裁决</blockquote> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.<blockquote>总之，我们分析了该公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和AWS。虽然加速增长最终结束，但作为电子商务领域成熟且占主导地位的市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为转向电子商务，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比预计将继续上升，预计到2023年将达到22%。该公司的Prime会员为其提供了大约占美国人口一半的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和运输网络，亚马逊FBA在其在线市场上看到第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户有着密切的关系，管理层也不断致力于满足该细分市场不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预计2021年增长正常化，但我们认为其前景继续受到电子商务和云计算市场不断增长的提振，并将我们的增长率预测修正为2021年的15.8%，随后修正为2020年的22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为购买目标价格为$4,363.96.</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143120804","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.\nWhile growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.\nAWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.\nWe revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.\n\n4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nSince our previous coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.\nDespite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3 guidance of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.\nSource: Amazon\nE-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth\nAmazon's online store sales have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.\nAccording to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to reach 22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.\n\n\n\nGlobal E-Commerce Market ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Global Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\n\n* B = C x A\nSource: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments\nAmazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.\nSource: Backlinko\nIn addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently attract sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.\nSource: Marketing Charts\nIts market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer & consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel & accessories, books music & video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.\nSource: eMarketer\nAmong the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having purchased electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker units and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average price of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.\nAll in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln products excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.\nThus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.\n\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\nGrowth %\n16.2%\n20.9%\n17.3%\n11.5%\n32.4%\n2.8%\n8.1%\n10.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')\n91.43\n108.35\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n18.5%\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')\n5.0%\n4.5%\n4.1%\n4.2%\n4.6%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n\n\n\n* B = A x C\n*D = B x E\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThe Rise of Third-party Seller Services\nAnother major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.\nWith Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.\nSelling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately provides more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising share of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.\nSource: FourWeekMBA\nThe chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it enhances its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business delivered 1.9 bln packages in the US.\nSource: WebFX\nMoreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming opening of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it announced plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.\nSource: CNBC\nOverall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has free Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.\nSource: Statista\nWe forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which represents 60% of its total sales.\n\n\n\nThird-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nGlobal Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Third Party Market Share ('b')\n5.6%\n5.5%\n5.4%\n6.0%\n6.9%\n7.5%\n8.1%\n8.9%\n\n\nGrowth %\n21%\n-2%\n-2%\n11%\n16%\n9%\n9%\n9%\n\n\nThird-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')\n103\n130\n160\n200\n295\n353\n443\n553\n\n\nGrowth %\n26.2%\n23.1%\n25.0%\n47.5%\n19.8%\n25.3%\n25.0%\n\n\n% Of Revenues ('d')\n22.3%\n24.5%\n26.7%\n26.9%\n27.3%\n27.6%\n27.8%\n28.1%\n\n\nGrowth %\n9.9%\n9.0%\n0.6%\n1.5%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services revenues ('e')\n22.99\n31.88\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n38.7%\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\n\n*C = A x B\n*E = C x D\nSource: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments\nAWS Growth by Data Volume Growth\nAnother key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.\nThe rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nWe projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23% CAGR through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.\n* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently announced a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.\nSource: Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nAll in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.\n\n\n\nAWS Forecasts\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nAWS Market Share\n32.6%\n32.3%\n31.8%\n31.2%\n31.0%\n30.7%\n\n\nAWS Revenues ($ bln)\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nWhile AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.\nSource: Amazon\nAntimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk\nAmazon has been involved in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.\nWhereas in the European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.\nValuation\nThe company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nMore importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the acquisition of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nThe company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.\nTo value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.\n\n\n\nCompany\nEV/EBITDA\n\n\nAmazon\n28.57x\n\n\nAlibaba (BABA)\n21.14x\n\n\nMicrosoft\n25.89x\n\n\nGoogle\n22.46x\n\n\nAverage\n24.52x\n\n\n\nSource: SeekingAlpha\nThe revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.\n\n\n\nAmazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nOnline stores\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPhysical stores\n17.22\n17.19\n16.23\n17.40\n18.55\n19.38\n\n\nGrowth %\n196.9%\n-0.2%\n-5.6%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\nSubscription services\n14.17\n19.21\n25.21\n34.67\n47.68\n65.58\n\n\nGrowth %\n45.8%\n35.6%\n31.2%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n\n\nAWS\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\nOther\n10.11\n14.09\n21.45\n31.27\n45.60\n66.48\n\n\nGrowth %\n117.4%\n39.4%\n52.2%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n\n\nTotal\n232.9\n280.53\n386.07\n447.0\n545.9\n669.1\n\n\nTotal Growth %\n30.9%\n20.5%\n37.6%\n15.8%\n22.1%\n22.6%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nBased on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.\nSource: Khaveen Investments\nVerdict\nIn conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":880468651,"gmtCreate":1631073113173,"gmtModify":1631892096028,"author":{"id":"3571482211918385","authorId":"3571482211918385","name":"KTX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7d2d6c9788fbae7ed024ed5ba7c58e4","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3571482211918385","authorIdStr":"3571482211918385"},"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880468651","repostId":1143120804,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143120804","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631072080,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143120804?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 11:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143120804","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth ra","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li> <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li> <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li> <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年收入增长超出我们预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍有望从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用DCF分析修改了估值，从3,358.73美元获得了4,303.18美元的新目标价。</li></ul>4kodiak/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</blockquote> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.<blockquote>自我们上次报道以来，亚马逊公司(AMZN)的股价已上涨26%，超出了我们24.5%的收入增长预期，并在2020年底上涨了37.6%，其在线零售业务增长了40%，达到近2000亿美元，第三方服务800亿美元。在本次分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和AWS。</blockquote> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.<blockquote>尽管第二季度网上商店销售额增长疲软13%，第三季度同比指引中点疲软13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力。亚马逊已确立市场地位的在线零售。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到2023年，电子商务的份额将从2020年的18%达到22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、作为忠实客户的庞大Prime会员基础以及坚实的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，正如其与第三方卖家的电子商务市场的崛起所证明的那样。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，持续致力于增长并以不断增长的数据量为基础。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth<blockquote>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</blockquote> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.<blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，加速了向电子商务的采用。然而，尽管2021年第二季度在线商店增长同比放缓13%，而第一季度为41%，但我们相信该公司将继续受益于电子商务采用率不断上升的长期推动力。</blockquote> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.<blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向在线购买，电子商务销售额的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将反弹7.2%。因此，2021年电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%实现正常化增长，渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = C x A<blockquote>*B=C x A</blockquote> Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.<blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争优势。更具体地说，很难在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上赢得公司的支持。显然，该公司的Prime会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司具有强大的吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也推动消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Backlinko<blockquote>资料来源：Backlinko</blockquote> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>除了Prime会员之外，该公司还能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，自2017年以来新增卖家330万人，即每天3,718人。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已确立了自己作为市场主导者的地位，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于第二接近的竞争对手。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Marketing Charts<blockquote>资料来源：营销图表</blockquote> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>如下表所示，其在不同产品类别和市场中的市场领导地位相当广泛。例如，其消费品和消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务总销售额的50.2%，占零售总额的26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: eMarketer<blockquote>资料来源：eMarketer</blockquote> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.<blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌(GOOG)和苹果(AAPL)，并继续通过新一代产品和软件更新来开发该产品。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据Echo产品系列103美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为39.4亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.<blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的不断增长，我们预计这一产品广度将继续扩大，并通过产品多样性为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.<blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有成熟的客户群和忠诚的Prime会员生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛的市场领导地位和广泛的产品广度的庞大卖家基础，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店增长是基于我们对其市场份额的预期（基于全球电子商务销售额的5年平均值）为4.5%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>零售销售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>16.2%<blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.9%<blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.3%<blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11.5%<blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.4%<blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.8%<blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.0%<blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入('d')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>91.43<blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></td> <td>108.35<blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>18.5%<blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额('e')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.0%<blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.1%<blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.2%<blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.6%<blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = A x C<blockquote>*B=A x C</blockquote> *D = B x E<blockquote>*D=B x E</blockquote> Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The Rise of Third-party Seller Services<blockquote>第三方卖家服务的兴起</blockquote> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.<blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和运输业务，这已成为一条难以逾越的护城河，很少有其他公司拥有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要送货提供商合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供的计划使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单。</blockquote> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.<blockquote>通过亚马逊物流（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的运营中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金以及相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、货件跟踪和报告。</blockquote> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.<blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更大的灵活性和控制力、更强大的品牌影响力和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的比例不断上升，达到总销售额的62%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: FourWeekMBA<blockquote>资料来源：FourWeekMBA</blockquote> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.<blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和运输网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和UPS竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其交付网络以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国运送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: WebFX<blockquote>来源：WebFX</blockquote> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.<blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，即将于2021年在密苏里州开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输大型客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020年，该公司宣布了7个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州600,000平方英尺的设施、田纳西州855,000平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州625,000平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CNBC<blockquote>资料来源：CNBC</blockquote> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.<blockquote>总体而言，这些都是该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面的优势的因素之一。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数人或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，公司的计划扩张将继续增强其物流网络并保持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista<blockquote>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</blockquote> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.<blockquote>我们预测了该公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，亚马逊的第三方商品销售总额预计将在过去5年的平均增长率为9%。此外，我们还预测，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的27.3%增长1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的60%至75%之间，低于AWS的80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率37%由于与占总销售额60%的销售成本相关的高成本。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额('b')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.6%<blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.5%<blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.4%<blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.0%<blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.9%<blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.5%<blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.9%<blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21%<blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11%<blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></td> <td>16%<blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊商城）GMV('c')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>103<blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></td> <td>130<blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></td> <td>160<blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></td> <td>200<blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></td> <td>295<blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></td> <td>353<blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></td> <td>443<blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></td> <td>553<blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>26.2%<blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>23.1%<blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.5%<blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.8%<blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.3%<blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>% Of Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>佔收入百分比（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.3%<blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>24.5%<blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.7%<blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.9%<blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.3%<blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.8%<blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>28.1%<blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9.9%<blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9.0%<blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>0.6%<blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.5%<blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.99<blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.88<blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>38.7%<blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> *C = A x B<blockquote>*C=A × B</blockquote> *E = C x D<blockquote>*E=C x D</blockquote> Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth<blockquote>AWS按数据量增长增长</blockquote> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.<blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有Netflix(NFLX)、Verizon(VZ)、Capital One(COF)、麦当劳(MCD)等著名大客户。2020年AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，占据云基础设施市场31.8%的市场份额。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已发展成为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软(MSFT)和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.<blockquote>到2025年，全球数据量将增长23%，这支撑了云基础设施市场的快速增长，因为随着数据分析、5G和物联网的兴起，世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.<blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长基于到2025年数据量以23%的CAGR增长，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>*A=B x C资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.<blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS，AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，例如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，以构建基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用区，并计划再推出15个可用区来支持其云增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Canalys、Khaveen投资</blockquote> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.<blockquote>总而言之，我们基于市场份额预测假设来预测AWS的收入增长，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢削弱，但在利用AWS的稳固大客户关系的支持下仍保持其市场领先地位。根据到2023年30.7%的市场份额预测，我们预计AWS收入将增长至815亿美元。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>AWS Forecasts<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>AWS预测</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Market Share<blockquote><tr><td>AWS市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>32.6%<blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.3%<blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.8%<blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.0%<blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>30.7%<blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><tr><td>AWS收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.<blockquote>虽然AWS仅占其总收入的11%，但与其他公司部门的2.8%相比，其29%的高利润率使AWS在2020年占营业收入的59%，这凸显了AWS对其利润的重要性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk<blockquote>反垄断和数据隐私罚款风险</blockquote> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.<blockquote>民主党的报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家那里获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为40%。由于卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取额外费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，由众议院议员组成的两党小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司在一系列广泛的反垄断改革下对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.<blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊遭受了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临8.88亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反了欧盟的通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR允许罚款高达亚马逊收入的4%，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊2020年213亿美元收入的4.2%。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.<blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其利润率不断上升，因为由于其利润率更高的云业务的卓越增长，其净利润率也有所上升。AWS部门的营业利润率高达29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为2.8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.<blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有良好且强大的现金产生能力，过去5年的平均自由现金流利润率为3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购Whole Foods，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于利润率的上升，因为其利润更高的AWS业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.<blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其偿还债务的强大能力。2020年其净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着AWS的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去5年中从32倍稳步上升。</blockquote> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.<blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了DCF估值，因为该公司过去拥有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到的行业平均EV/EBITDA为27.64倍，如下表所示。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Company<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>公司</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>EV/EBITDA<blockquote><td>EV/EBITDA</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>28.57x<blockquote><td>28.57 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Alibaba (BABA)<blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（父亲）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21.14x<blockquote><td>21.14 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Microsoft<blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.89x<blockquote><td>25.89 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Google<blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.46x<blockquote><td>22.46 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Average<blockquote><tr><td>均值</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>24.52x<blockquote><td>24.52 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: SeekingAlpha<blockquote>来源：SeekingAlpha</blockquote> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.<blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS和其他的收入细分总结如下。网上商店预测源自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售额增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场中的第三方卖家GMV份额，并假设其从佣金和相关费用中获得%的收入。基于不断增长的数据量预测，AWS收入来自云市场增长。其他细分市场基于其平均3年增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，并从2027年的12.3%逐步下调，到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务和云计算市场将更加成熟。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Online stores<blockquote><tr><td>在线商店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Physical stores<blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>17.22<blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.19<blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></td> <td>16.23<blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.40<blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></td> <td>18.55<blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.38<blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>196.9%<blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-0.2%<blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-5.6%<blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Subscription services<blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>14.17<blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.21<blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.21<blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.67<blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.68<blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></td> <td>65.58<blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.6%<blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS<blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Other<blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>10.11<blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.09<blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.45<blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.27<blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.60<blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.48<blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>117.4%<blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.4%<blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>52.2%<blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total<blockquote><tr><td>总的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>232.9<blockquote><td>232.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.53<blockquote><td>280.53</td></blockquote></td> <td>386.07<blockquote><td>386.07</td></blockquote></td> <td>447.0<blockquote><td>447.0</td></blockquote></td> <td>545.9<blockquote><td>545.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>669.1<blockquote><td>669.1</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>总增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>30.9%<blockquote><td>30.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.5%<blockquote><td>20.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.6%<blockquote><td>37.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.8%<blockquote><td>15.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.1%<blockquote><td>22.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.6%<blockquote><td>22.6%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.<blockquote>基于12.7%的贴现率（公司的WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为36.9%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：卡文投资</blockquote> Verdict<blockquote>裁决</blockquote> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.<blockquote>总之，我们分析了该公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和AWS。虽然加速增长最终结束，但作为电子商务领域成熟且占主导地位的市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为转向电子商务，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比预计将继续上升，预计到2023年将达到22%。该公司的Prime会员为其提供了大约占美国人口一半的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和运输网络，亚马逊FBA在其在线市场上看到第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户有着密切的关系，管理层也不断致力于满足该细分市场不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预计2021年增长正常化，但我们认为其前景继续受到电子商务和云计算市场不断增长的提振，并将我们的增长率预测修正为2021年的15.8%，随后修正为2020年的22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为购买目标价格为$4,363.96.</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-09-08 11:34\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li> <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li> <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li> <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年收入增长超出我们预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍有望从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用DCF分析修改了估值，从3,358.73美元获得了4,303.18美元的新目标价。</li></ul>4kodiak/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</blockquote> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.<blockquote>自我们上次报道以来，亚马逊公司(AMZN)的股价已上涨26%，超出了我们24.5%的收入增长预期，并在2020年底上涨了37.6%，其在线零售业务增长了40%，达到近2000亿美元，第三方服务800亿美元。在本次分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和AWS。</blockquote> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.<blockquote>尽管第二季度网上商店销售额增长疲软13%，第三季度同比指引中点疲软13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力。亚马逊已确立市场地位的在线零售。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到2023年，电子商务的份额将从2020年的18%达到22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、作为忠实客户的庞大Prime会员基础以及坚实的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，正如其与第三方卖家的电子商务市场的崛起所证明的那样。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，持续致力于增长并以不断增长的数据量为基础。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth<blockquote>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</blockquote> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.<blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，加速了向电子商务的采用。然而，尽管2021年第二季度在线商店增长同比放缓13%，而第一季度为41%，但我们相信该公司将继续受益于电子商务采用率不断上升的长期推动力。</blockquote> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.<blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向在线购买，电子商务销售额的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将反弹7.2%。因此，2021年电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%实现正常化增长，渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = C x A<blockquote>*B=C x A</blockquote> Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.<blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争优势。更具体地说，很难在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上赢得公司的支持。显然，该公司的Prime会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司具有强大的吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也推动消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Backlinko<blockquote>资料来源：Backlinko</blockquote> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>除了Prime会员之外，该公司还能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，自2017年以来新增卖家330万人，即每天3,718人。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已确立了自己作为市场主导者的地位，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于第二接近的竞争对手。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Marketing Charts<blockquote>资料来源：营销图表</blockquote> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>如下表所示，其在不同产品类别和市场中的市场领导地位相当广泛。例如，其消费品和消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务总销售额的50.2%，占零售总额的26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: eMarketer<blockquote>资料来源：eMarketer</blockquote> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.<blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌(GOOG)和苹果(AAPL)，并继续通过新一代产品和软件更新来开发该产品。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据Echo产品系列103美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为39.4亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.<blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的不断增长，我们预计这一产品广度将继续扩大，并通过产品多样性为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.<blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有成熟的客户群和忠诚的Prime会员生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛的市场领导地位和广泛的产品广度的庞大卖家基础，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店增长是基于我们对其市场份额的预期（基于全球电子商务销售额的5年平均值）为4.5%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>零售销售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>16.2%<blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.9%<blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.3%<blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11.5%<blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.4%<blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.8%<blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.0%<blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入('d')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>91.43<blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></td> <td>108.35<blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>18.5%<blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额('e')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.0%<blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.1%<blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.2%<blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.6%<blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = A x C<blockquote>*B=A x C</blockquote> *D = B x E<blockquote>*D=B x E</blockquote> Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The Rise of Third-party Seller Services<blockquote>第三方卖家服务的兴起</blockquote> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.<blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和运输业务，这已成为一条难以逾越的护城河，很少有其他公司拥有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要送货提供商合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供的计划使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单。</blockquote> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.<blockquote>通过亚马逊物流（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的运营中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金以及相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、货件跟踪和报告。</blockquote> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.<blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更大的灵活性和控制力、更强大的品牌影响力和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的比例不断上升，达到总销售额的62%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: FourWeekMBA<blockquote>资料来源：FourWeekMBA</blockquote> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.<blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和运输网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和UPS竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其交付网络以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国运送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: WebFX<blockquote>来源：WebFX</blockquote> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.<blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，即将于2021年在密苏里州开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输大型客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020年，该公司宣布了7个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州600,000平方英尺的设施、田纳西州855,000平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州625,000平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CNBC<blockquote>资料来源：CNBC</blockquote> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.<blockquote>总体而言，这些都是该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面的优势的因素之一。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数人或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，公司的计划扩张将继续增强其物流网络并保持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista<blockquote>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</blockquote> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.<blockquote>我们预测了该公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，亚马逊的第三方商品销售总额预计将在过去5年的平均增长率为9%。此外，我们还预测，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的27.3%增长1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的60%至75%之间，低于AWS的80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率37%由于与占总销售额60%的销售成本相关的高成本。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额('b')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.6%<blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.5%<blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.4%<blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.0%<blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.9%<blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.5%<blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.9%<blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21%<blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11%<blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></td> <td>16%<blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊商城）GMV('c')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>103<blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></td> <td>130<blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></td> <td>160<blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></td> <td>200<blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></td> <td>295<blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></td> <td>353<blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></td> <td>443<blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></td> <td>553<blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>26.2%<blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>23.1%<blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.5%<blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.8%<blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.3%<blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>% Of Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>佔收入百分比（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.3%<blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>24.5%<blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.7%<blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.9%<blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.3%<blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.8%<blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>28.1%<blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9.9%<blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9.0%<blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>0.6%<blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.5%<blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.99<blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.88<blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>38.7%<blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> *C = A x B<blockquote>*C=A × B</blockquote> *E = C x D<blockquote>*E=C x D</blockquote> Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth<blockquote>AWS按数据量增长增长</blockquote> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.<blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有Netflix(NFLX)、Verizon(VZ)、Capital One(COF)、麦当劳(MCD)等著名大客户。2020年AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，占据云基础设施市场31.8%的市场份额。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已发展成为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软(MSFT)和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.<blockquote>到2025年，全球数据量将增长23%，这支撑了云基础设施市场的快速增长，因为随着数据分析、5G和物联网的兴起，世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.<blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长基于到2025年数据量以23%的CAGR增长，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>*A=B x C资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.<blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS，AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，例如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，以构建基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用区，并计划再推出15个可用区来支持其云增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Canalys、Khaveen投资</blockquote> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.<blockquote>总而言之，我们基于市场份额预测假设来预测AWS的收入增长，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢削弱，但在利用AWS的稳固大客户关系的支持下仍保持其市场领先地位。根据到2023年30.7%的市场份额预测，我们预计AWS收入将增长至815亿美元。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>AWS Forecasts<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>AWS预测</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Market Share<blockquote><tr><td>AWS市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>32.6%<blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.3%<blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.8%<blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.0%<blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>30.7%<blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><tr><td>AWS收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.<blockquote>虽然AWS仅占其总收入的11%，但与其他公司部门的2.8%相比，其29%的高利润率使AWS在2020年占营业收入的59%，这凸显了AWS对其利润的重要性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk<blockquote>反垄断和数据隐私罚款风险</blockquote> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.<blockquote>民主党的报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家那里获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为40%。由于卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取额外费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，由众议院议员组成的两党小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司在一系列广泛的反垄断改革下对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.<blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊遭受了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临8.88亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反了欧盟的通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR允许罚款高达亚马逊收入的4%，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊2020年213亿美元收入的4.2%。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.<blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其利润率不断上升，因为由于其利润率更高的云业务的卓越增长，其净利润率也有所上升。AWS部门的营业利润率高达29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为2.8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.<blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有良好且强大的现金产生能力，过去5年的平均自由现金流利润率为3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购Whole Foods，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于利润率的上升，因为其利润更高的AWS业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.<blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其偿还债务的强大能力。2020年其净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着AWS的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去5年中从32倍稳步上升。</blockquote> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.<blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了DCF估值，因为该公司过去拥有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到的行业平均EV/EBITDA为27.64倍，如下表所示。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Company<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>公司</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>EV/EBITDA<blockquote><td>EV/EBITDA</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>28.57x<blockquote><td>28.57 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Alibaba (BABA)<blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（父亲）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21.14x<blockquote><td>21.14 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Microsoft<blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.89x<blockquote><td>25.89 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Google<blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.46x<blockquote><td>22.46 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Average<blockquote><tr><td>均值</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>24.52x<blockquote><td>24.52 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: SeekingAlpha<blockquote>来源：SeekingAlpha</blockquote> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.<blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS和其他的收入细分总结如下。网上商店预测源自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售额增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场中的第三方卖家GMV份额，并假设其从佣金和相关费用中获得%的收入。基于不断增长的数据量预测，AWS收入来自云市场增长。其他细分市场基于其平均3年增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，并从2027年的12.3%逐步下调，到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务和云计算市场将更加成熟。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Online stores<blockquote><tr><td>在线商店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Physical stores<blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>17.22<blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.19<blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></td> <td>16.23<blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.40<blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></td> <td>18.55<blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.38<blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>196.9%<blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-0.2%<blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-5.6%<blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Subscription services<blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>14.17<blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.21<blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.21<blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.67<blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.68<blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></td> <td>65.58<blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.6%<blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS<blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Other<blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>10.11<blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.09<blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.45<blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.27<blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.60<blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.48<blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>117.4%<blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.4%<blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>52.2%<blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total<blockquote><tr><td>总的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>232.9<blockquote><td>232.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.53<blockquote><td>280.53</td></blockquote></td> <td>386.07<blockquote><td>386.07</td></blockquote></td> <td>447.0<blockquote><td>447.0</td></blockquote></td> <td>545.9<blockquote><td>545.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>669.1<blockquote><td>669.1</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>总增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>30.9%<blockquote><td>30.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.5%<blockquote><td>20.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.6%<blockquote><td>37.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.8%<blockquote><td>15.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.1%<blockquote><td>22.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.6%<blockquote><td>22.6%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.<blockquote>基于12.7%的贴现率（公司的WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为36.9%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：卡文投资</blockquote> Verdict<blockquote>裁决</blockquote> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.<blockquote>总之，我们分析了该公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和AWS。虽然加速增长最终结束，但作为电子商务领域成熟且占主导地位的市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为转向电子商务，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比预计将继续上升，预计到2023年将达到22%。该公司的Prime会员为其提供了大约占美国人口一半的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和运输网络，亚马逊FBA在其在线市场上看到第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户有着密切的关系，管理层也不断致力于满足该细分市场不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预计2021年增长正常化，但我们认为其前景继续受到电子商务和云计算市场不断增长的提振，并将我们的增长率预测修正为2021年的15.8%，随后修正为2020年的22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为购买目标价格为$4,363.96.</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143120804","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.\nWhile growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.\nAWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.\nWe revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.\n\n4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nSince our previous coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.\nDespite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3 guidance of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.\nSource: Amazon\nE-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth\nAmazon's online store sales have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.\nAccording to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to reach 22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.\n\n\n\nGlobal E-Commerce Market ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Global Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\n\n* B = C x A\nSource: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments\nAmazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.\nSource: Backlinko\nIn addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently attract sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.\nSource: Marketing Charts\nIts market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer & consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel & accessories, books music & video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.\nSource: eMarketer\nAmong the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having purchased electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker units and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average price of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.\nAll in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln products excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.\nThus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.\n\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\nGrowth %\n16.2%\n20.9%\n17.3%\n11.5%\n32.4%\n2.8%\n8.1%\n10.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')\n91.43\n108.35\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n18.5%\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')\n5.0%\n4.5%\n4.1%\n4.2%\n4.6%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n\n\n\n* B = A x C\n*D = B x E\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThe Rise of Third-party Seller Services\nAnother major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.\nWith Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.\nSelling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately provides more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising share of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.\nSource: FourWeekMBA\nThe chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it enhances its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business delivered 1.9 bln packages in the US.\nSource: WebFX\nMoreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming opening of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it announced plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.\nSource: CNBC\nOverall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has free Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.\nSource: Statista\nWe forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which represents 60% of its total sales.\n\n\n\nThird-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nGlobal Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Third Party Market Share ('b')\n5.6%\n5.5%\n5.4%\n6.0%\n6.9%\n7.5%\n8.1%\n8.9%\n\n\nGrowth %\n21%\n-2%\n-2%\n11%\n16%\n9%\n9%\n9%\n\n\nThird-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')\n103\n130\n160\n200\n295\n353\n443\n553\n\n\nGrowth %\n26.2%\n23.1%\n25.0%\n47.5%\n19.8%\n25.3%\n25.0%\n\n\n% Of Revenues ('d')\n22.3%\n24.5%\n26.7%\n26.9%\n27.3%\n27.6%\n27.8%\n28.1%\n\n\nGrowth %\n9.9%\n9.0%\n0.6%\n1.5%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services revenues ('e')\n22.99\n31.88\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n38.7%\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\n\n*C = A x B\n*E = C x D\nSource: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments\nAWS Growth by Data Volume Growth\nAnother key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.\nThe rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nWe projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23% CAGR through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.\n* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently announced a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.\nSource: Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nAll in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.\n\n\n\nAWS Forecasts\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nAWS Market Share\n32.6%\n32.3%\n31.8%\n31.2%\n31.0%\n30.7%\n\n\nAWS Revenues ($ bln)\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nWhile AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.\nSource: Amazon\nAntimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk\nAmazon has been involved in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.\nWhereas in the European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.\nValuation\nThe company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nMore importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the acquisition of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nThe company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.\nTo value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.\n\n\n\nCompany\nEV/EBITDA\n\n\nAmazon\n28.57x\n\n\nAlibaba (BABA)\n21.14x\n\n\nMicrosoft\n25.89x\n\n\nGoogle\n22.46x\n\n\nAverage\n24.52x\n\n\n\nSource: SeekingAlpha\nThe revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.\n\n\n\nAmazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nOnline stores\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPhysical stores\n17.22\n17.19\n16.23\n17.40\n18.55\n19.38\n\n\nGrowth %\n196.9%\n-0.2%\n-5.6%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\nSubscription services\n14.17\n19.21\n25.21\n34.67\n47.68\n65.58\n\n\nGrowth %\n45.8%\n35.6%\n31.2%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n\n\nAWS\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\nOther\n10.11\n14.09\n21.45\n31.27\n45.60\n66.48\n\n\nGrowth %\n117.4%\n39.4%\n52.2%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n\n\nTotal\n232.9\n280.53\n386.07\n447.0\n545.9\n669.1\n\n\nTotal Growth %\n30.9%\n20.5%\n37.6%\n15.8%\n22.1%\n22.6%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nBased on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.\nSource: Khaveen Investments\nVerdict\nIn conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":880468125,"gmtCreate":1631073096167,"gmtModify":1631890980958,"author":{"id":"3584096547807045","authorId":"3584096547807045","name":"wongzj","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3584096547807045","authorIdStr":"3584096547807045"},"htmlText":"Okay","listText":"Okay","text":"Okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880468125","repostId":1143120804,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143120804","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631072080,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143120804?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 11:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143120804","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth ra","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li> <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li> <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li> <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年收入增长超出我们预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍有望从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用DCF分析修改了估值，从3,358.73美元获得了4,303.18美元的新目标价。</li></ul>4kodiak/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</blockquote> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.<blockquote>自我们上次报道以来，亚马逊公司(AMZN)的股价已上涨26%，超出了我们24.5%的收入增长预期，并在2020年底上涨了37.6%，其在线零售业务增长了40%，达到近2000亿美元，第三方服务800亿美元。在本次分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和AWS。</blockquote> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.<blockquote>尽管第二季度网上商店销售额增长疲软13%，第三季度同比指引中点疲软13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力。亚马逊已确立市场地位的在线零售。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到2023年，电子商务的份额将从2020年的18%达到22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、作为忠实客户的庞大Prime会员基础以及坚实的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，正如其与第三方卖家的电子商务市场的崛起所证明的那样。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，持续致力于增长并以不断增长的数据量为基础。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth<blockquote>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</blockquote> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.<blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，加速了向电子商务的采用。然而，尽管2021年第二季度在线商店增长同比放缓13%，而第一季度为41%，但我们相信该公司将继续受益于电子商务采用率不断上升的长期推动力。</blockquote> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.<blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向在线购买，电子商务销售额的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将反弹7.2%。因此，2021年电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%实现正常化增长，渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = C x A<blockquote>*B=C x A</blockquote> Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.<blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争优势。更具体地说，很难在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上赢得公司的支持。显然，该公司的Prime会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司具有强大的吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也推动消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Backlinko<blockquote>资料来源：Backlinko</blockquote> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>除了Prime会员之外，该公司还能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，自2017年以来新增卖家330万人，即每天3,718人。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已确立了自己作为市场主导者的地位，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于第二接近的竞争对手。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Marketing Charts<blockquote>资料来源：营销图表</blockquote> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>如下表所示，其在不同产品类别和市场中的市场领导地位相当广泛。例如，其消费品和消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务总销售额的50.2%，占零售总额的26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: eMarketer<blockquote>资料来源：eMarketer</blockquote> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.<blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌(GOOG)和苹果(AAPL)，并继续通过新一代产品和软件更新来开发该产品。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据Echo产品系列103美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为39.4亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.<blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的不断增长，我们预计这一产品广度将继续扩大，并通过产品多样性为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.<blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有成熟的客户群和忠诚的Prime会员生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛的市场领导地位和广泛的产品广度的庞大卖家基础，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店增长是基于我们对其市场份额的预期（基于全球电子商务销售额的5年平均值）为4.5%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>零售销售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>16.2%<blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.9%<blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.3%<blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11.5%<blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.4%<blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.8%<blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.0%<blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入('d')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>91.43<blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></td> <td>108.35<blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>18.5%<blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额('e')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.0%<blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.1%<blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.2%<blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.6%<blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = A x C<blockquote>*B=A x C</blockquote> *D = B x E<blockquote>*D=B x E</blockquote> Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The Rise of Third-party Seller Services<blockquote>第三方卖家服务的兴起</blockquote> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.<blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和运输业务，这已成为一条难以逾越的护城河，很少有其他公司拥有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要送货提供商合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供的计划使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单。</blockquote> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.<blockquote>通过亚马逊物流（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的运营中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金以及相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、货件跟踪和报告。</blockquote> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.<blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更大的灵活性和控制力、更强大的品牌影响力和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的比例不断上升，达到总销售额的62%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: FourWeekMBA<blockquote>资料来源：FourWeekMBA</blockquote> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.<blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和运输网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和UPS竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其交付网络以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国运送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: WebFX<blockquote>来源：WebFX</blockquote> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.<blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，即将于2021年在密苏里州开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输大型客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020年，该公司宣布了7个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州600,000平方英尺的设施、田纳西州855,000平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州625,000平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CNBC<blockquote>资料来源：CNBC</blockquote> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.<blockquote>总体而言，这些都是该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面的优势的因素之一。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数人或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，公司的计划扩张将继续增强其物流网络并保持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista<blockquote>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</blockquote> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.<blockquote>我们预测了该公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，亚马逊的第三方商品销售总额预计将在过去5年的平均增长率为9%。此外，我们还预测，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的27.3%增长1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的60%至75%之间，低于AWS的80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率37%由于与占总销售额60%的销售成本相关的高成本。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额('b')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.6%<blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.5%<blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.4%<blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.0%<blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.9%<blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.5%<blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.9%<blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21%<blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11%<blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></td> <td>16%<blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊商城）GMV('c')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>103<blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></td> <td>130<blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></td> <td>160<blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></td> <td>200<blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></td> <td>295<blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></td> <td>353<blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></td> <td>443<blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></td> <td>553<blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>26.2%<blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>23.1%<blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.5%<blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.8%<blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.3%<blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>% Of Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>佔收入百分比（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.3%<blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>24.5%<blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.7%<blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.9%<blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.3%<blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.8%<blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>28.1%<blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9.9%<blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9.0%<blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>0.6%<blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.5%<blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.99<blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.88<blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>38.7%<blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> *C = A x B<blockquote>*C=A × B</blockquote> *E = C x D<blockquote>*E=C x D</blockquote> Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth<blockquote>AWS按数据量增长增长</blockquote> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.<blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有Netflix(NFLX)、Verizon(VZ)、Capital One(COF)、麦当劳(MCD)等著名大客户。2020年AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，占据云基础设施市场31.8%的市场份额。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已发展成为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软(MSFT)和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.<blockquote>到2025年，全球数据量将增长23%，这支撑了云基础设施市场的快速增长，因为随着数据分析、5G和物联网的兴起，世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.<blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长基于到2025年数据量以23%的CAGR增长，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>*A=B x C资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.<blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS，AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，例如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，以构建基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用区，并计划再推出15个可用区来支持其云增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Canalys、Khaveen投资</blockquote> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.<blockquote>总而言之，我们基于市场份额预测假设来预测AWS的收入增长，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢削弱，但在利用AWS的稳固大客户关系的支持下仍保持其市场领先地位。根据到2023年30.7%的市场份额预测，我们预计AWS收入将增长至815亿美元。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>AWS Forecasts<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>AWS预测</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Market Share<blockquote><tr><td>AWS市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>32.6%<blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.3%<blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.8%<blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.0%<blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>30.7%<blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><tr><td>AWS收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.<blockquote>虽然AWS仅占其总收入的11%，但与其他公司部门的2.8%相比，其29%的高利润率使AWS在2020年占营业收入的59%，这凸显了AWS对其利润的重要性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk<blockquote>反垄断和数据隐私罚款风险</blockquote> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.<blockquote>民主党的报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家那里获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为40%。由于卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取额外费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，由众议院议员组成的两党小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司在一系列广泛的反垄断改革下对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.<blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊遭受了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临8.88亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反了欧盟的通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR允许罚款高达亚马逊收入的4%，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊2020年213亿美元收入的4.2%。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.<blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其利润率不断上升，因为由于其利润率更高的云业务的卓越增长，其净利润率也有所上升。AWS部门的营业利润率高达29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为2.8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.<blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有良好且强大的现金产生能力，过去5年的平均自由现金流利润率为3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购Whole Foods，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于利润率的上升，因为其利润更高的AWS业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.<blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其偿还债务的强大能力。2020年其净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着AWS的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去5年中从32倍稳步上升。</blockquote> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.<blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了DCF估值，因为该公司过去拥有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到的行业平均EV/EBITDA为27.64倍，如下表所示。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Company<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>公司</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>EV/EBITDA<blockquote><td>EV/EBITDA</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>28.57x<blockquote><td>28.57 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Alibaba (BABA)<blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（父亲）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21.14x<blockquote><td>21.14 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Microsoft<blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.89x<blockquote><td>25.89 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Google<blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.46x<blockquote><td>22.46 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Average<blockquote><tr><td>均值</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>24.52x<blockquote><td>24.52 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: SeekingAlpha<blockquote>来源：SeekingAlpha</blockquote> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.<blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS和其他的收入细分总结如下。网上商店预测源自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售额增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场中的第三方卖家GMV份额，并假设其从佣金和相关费用中获得%的收入。基于不断增长的数据量预测，AWS收入来自云市场增长。其他细分市场基于其平均3年增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，并从2027年的12.3%逐步下调，到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务和云计算市场将更加成熟。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Online stores<blockquote><tr><td>在线商店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Physical stores<blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>17.22<blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.19<blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></td> <td>16.23<blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.40<blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></td> <td>18.55<blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.38<blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>196.9%<blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-0.2%<blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-5.6%<blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Subscription services<blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>14.17<blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.21<blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.21<blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.67<blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.68<blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></td> <td>65.58<blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.6%<blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS<blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Other<blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>10.11<blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.09<blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.45<blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.27<blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.60<blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.48<blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>117.4%<blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.4%<blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>52.2%<blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total<blockquote><tr><td>总的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>232.9<blockquote><td>232.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.53<blockquote><td>280.53</td></blockquote></td> <td>386.07<blockquote><td>386.07</td></blockquote></td> <td>447.0<blockquote><td>447.0</td></blockquote></td> <td>545.9<blockquote><td>545.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>669.1<blockquote><td>669.1</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>总增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>30.9%<blockquote><td>30.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.5%<blockquote><td>20.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.6%<blockquote><td>37.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.8%<blockquote><td>15.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.1%<blockquote><td>22.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.6%<blockquote><td>22.6%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.<blockquote>基于12.7%的贴现率（公司的WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为36.9%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：卡文投资</blockquote> Verdict<blockquote>裁决</blockquote> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.<blockquote>总之，我们分析了该公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和AWS。虽然加速增长最终结束，但作为电子商务领域成熟且占主导地位的市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为转向电子商务，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比预计将继续上升，预计到2023年将达到22%。该公司的Prime会员为其提供了大约占美国人口一半的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和运输网络，亚马逊FBA在其在线市场上看到第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户有着密切的关系，管理层也不断致力于满足该细分市场不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预计2021年增长正常化，但我们认为其前景继续受到电子商务和云计算市场不断增长的提振，并将我们的增长率预测修正为2021年的15.8%，随后修正为2020年的22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为购买目标价格为$4,363.96.</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-09-08 11:34\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li> <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li> <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li> <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年收入增长超出我们预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍有望从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用DCF分析修改了估值，从3,358.73美元获得了4,303.18美元的新目标价。</li></ul>4kodiak/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</blockquote> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.<blockquote>自我们上次报道以来，亚马逊公司(AMZN)的股价已上涨26%，超出了我们24.5%的收入增长预期，并在2020年底上涨了37.6%，其在线零售业务增长了40%，达到近2000亿美元，第三方服务800亿美元。在本次分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和AWS。</blockquote> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.<blockquote>尽管第二季度网上商店销售额增长疲软13%，第三季度同比指引中点疲软13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力。亚马逊已确立市场地位的在线零售。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到2023年，电子商务的份额将从2020年的18%达到22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、作为忠实客户的庞大Prime会员基础以及坚实的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，正如其与第三方卖家的电子商务市场的崛起所证明的那样。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，持续致力于增长并以不断增长的数据量为基础。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth<blockquote>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</blockquote> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.<blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，加速了向电子商务的采用。然而，尽管2021年第二季度在线商店增长同比放缓13%，而第一季度为41%，但我们相信该公司将继续受益于电子商务采用率不断上升的长期推动力。</blockquote> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.<blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向在线购买，电子商务销售额的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将反弹7.2%。因此，2021年电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%实现正常化增长，渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = C x A<blockquote>*B=C x A</blockquote> Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.<blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争优势。更具体地说，很难在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上赢得公司的支持。显然，该公司的Prime会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司具有强大的吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也推动消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Backlinko<blockquote>资料来源：Backlinko</blockquote> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>除了Prime会员之外，该公司还能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，自2017年以来新增卖家330万人，即每天3,718人。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已确立了自己作为市场主导者的地位，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于第二接近的竞争对手。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Marketing Charts<blockquote>资料来源：营销图表</blockquote> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>如下表所示，其在不同产品类别和市场中的市场领导地位相当广泛。例如，其消费品和消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务总销售额的50.2%，占零售总额的26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: eMarketer<blockquote>资料来源：eMarketer</blockquote> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.<blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌(GOOG)和苹果(AAPL)，并继续通过新一代产品和软件更新来开发该产品。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据Echo产品系列103美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为39.4亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.<blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的不断增长，我们预计这一产品广度将继续扩大，并通过产品多样性为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.<blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有成熟的客户群和忠诚的Prime会员生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛的市场领导地位和广泛的产品广度的庞大卖家基础，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店增长是基于我们对其市场份额的预期（基于全球电子商务销售额的5年平均值）为4.5%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>零售销售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>16.2%<blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.9%<blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.3%<blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11.5%<blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.4%<blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.8%<blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.0%<blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入('d')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>91.43<blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></td> <td>108.35<blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>18.5%<blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额('e')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.0%<blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.1%<blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.2%<blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.6%<blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = A x C<blockquote>*B=A x C</blockquote> *D = B x E<blockquote>*D=B x E</blockquote> Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The Rise of Third-party Seller Services<blockquote>第三方卖家服务的兴起</blockquote> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.<blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和运输业务，这已成为一条难以逾越的护城河，很少有其他公司拥有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要送货提供商合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供的计划使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单。</blockquote> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.<blockquote>通过亚马逊物流（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的运营中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金以及相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、货件跟踪和报告。</blockquote> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.<blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更大的灵活性和控制力、更强大的品牌影响力和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的比例不断上升，达到总销售额的62%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: FourWeekMBA<blockquote>资料来源：FourWeekMBA</blockquote> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.<blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和运输网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和UPS竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其交付网络以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国运送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: WebFX<blockquote>来源：WebFX</blockquote> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.<blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，即将于2021年在密苏里州开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输大型客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020年，该公司宣布了7个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州600,000平方英尺的设施、田纳西州855,000平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州625,000平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CNBC<blockquote>资料来源：CNBC</blockquote> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.<blockquote>总体而言，这些都是该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面的优势的因素之一。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数人或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，公司的计划扩张将继续增强其物流网络并保持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista<blockquote>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</blockquote> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.<blockquote>我们预测了该公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，亚马逊的第三方商品销售总额预计将在过去5年的平均增长率为9%。此外，我们还预测，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的27.3%增长1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的60%至75%之间，低于AWS的80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率37%由于与占总销售额60%的销售成本相关的高成本。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额('b')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.6%<blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.5%<blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.4%<blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.0%<blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.9%<blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.5%<blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.9%<blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21%<blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11%<blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></td> <td>16%<blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊商城）GMV('c')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>103<blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></td> <td>130<blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></td> <td>160<blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></td> <td>200<blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></td> <td>295<blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></td> <td>353<blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></td> <td>443<blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></td> <td>553<blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>26.2%<blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>23.1%<blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.5%<blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.8%<blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.3%<blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>% Of Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>佔收入百分比（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.3%<blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>24.5%<blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.7%<blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.9%<blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.3%<blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.8%<blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>28.1%<blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9.9%<blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9.0%<blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>0.6%<blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.5%<blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.99<blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.88<blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>38.7%<blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> *C = A x B<blockquote>*C=A × B</blockquote> *E = C x D<blockquote>*E=C x D</blockquote> Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth<blockquote>AWS按数据量增长增长</blockquote> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.<blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有Netflix(NFLX)、Verizon(VZ)、Capital One(COF)、麦当劳(MCD)等著名大客户。2020年AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，占据云基础设施市场31.8%的市场份额。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已发展成为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软(MSFT)和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.<blockquote>到2025年，全球数据量将增长23%，这支撑了云基础设施市场的快速增长，因为随着数据分析、5G和物联网的兴起，世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.<blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长基于到2025年数据量以23%的CAGR增长，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>*A=B x C资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.<blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS，AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，例如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，以构建基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用区，并计划再推出15个可用区来支持其云增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Canalys、Khaveen投资</blockquote> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.<blockquote>总而言之，我们基于市场份额预测假设来预测AWS的收入增长，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢削弱，但在利用AWS的稳固大客户关系的支持下仍保持其市场领先地位。根据到2023年30.7%的市场份额预测，我们预计AWS收入将增长至815亿美元。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>AWS Forecasts<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>AWS预测</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Market Share<blockquote><tr><td>AWS市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>32.6%<blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.3%<blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.8%<blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.0%<blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>30.7%<blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><tr><td>AWS收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.<blockquote>虽然AWS仅占其总收入的11%，但与其他公司部门的2.8%相比，其29%的高利润率使AWS在2020年占营业收入的59%，这凸显了AWS对其利润的重要性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk<blockquote>反垄断和数据隐私罚款风险</blockquote> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.<blockquote>民主党的报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家那里获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为40%。由于卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取额外费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，由众议院议员组成的两党小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司在一系列广泛的反垄断改革下对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.<blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊遭受了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临8.88亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反了欧盟的通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR允许罚款高达亚马逊收入的4%，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊2020年213亿美元收入的4.2%。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.<blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其利润率不断上升，因为由于其利润率更高的云业务的卓越增长，其净利润率也有所上升。AWS部门的营业利润率高达29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为2.8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.<blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有良好且强大的现金产生能力，过去5年的平均自由现金流利润率为3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购Whole Foods，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于利润率的上升，因为其利润更高的AWS业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.<blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其偿还债务的强大能力。2020年其净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着AWS的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去5年中从32倍稳步上升。</blockquote> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.<blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了DCF估值，因为该公司过去拥有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到的行业平均EV/EBITDA为27.64倍，如下表所示。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Company<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>公司</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>EV/EBITDA<blockquote><td>EV/EBITDA</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>28.57x<blockquote><td>28.57 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Alibaba (BABA)<blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（父亲）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21.14x<blockquote><td>21.14 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Microsoft<blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.89x<blockquote><td>25.89 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Google<blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.46x<blockquote><td>22.46 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Average<blockquote><tr><td>均值</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>24.52x<blockquote><td>24.52 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: SeekingAlpha<blockquote>来源：SeekingAlpha</blockquote> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.<blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS和其他的收入细分总结如下。网上商店预测源自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售额增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场中的第三方卖家GMV份额，并假设其从佣金和相关费用中获得%的收入。基于不断增长的数据量预测，AWS收入来自云市场增长。其他细分市场基于其平均3年增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，并从2027年的12.3%逐步下调，到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务和云计算市场将更加成熟。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Online stores<blockquote><tr><td>在线商店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Physical stores<blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>17.22<blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.19<blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></td> <td>16.23<blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.40<blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></td> <td>18.55<blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.38<blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>196.9%<blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-0.2%<blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-5.6%<blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Subscription services<blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>14.17<blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.21<blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.21<blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.67<blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.68<blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></td> <td>65.58<blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.6%<blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS<blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Other<blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>10.11<blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.09<blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.45<blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.27<blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.60<blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.48<blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>117.4%<blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.4%<blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>52.2%<blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total<blockquote><tr><td>总的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>232.9<blockquote><td>232.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.53<blockquote><td>280.53</td></blockquote></td> <td>386.07<blockquote><td>386.07</td></blockquote></td> <td>447.0<blockquote><td>447.0</td></blockquote></td> <td>545.9<blockquote><td>545.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>669.1<blockquote><td>669.1</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>总增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>30.9%<blockquote><td>30.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.5%<blockquote><td>20.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.6%<blockquote><td>37.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.8%<blockquote><td>15.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.1%<blockquote><td>22.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.6%<blockquote><td>22.6%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.<blockquote>基于12.7%的贴现率（公司的WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为36.9%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：卡文投资</blockquote> Verdict<blockquote>裁决</blockquote> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.<blockquote>总之，我们分析了该公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和AWS。虽然加速增长最终结束，但作为电子商务领域成熟且占主导地位的市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为转向电子商务，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比预计将继续上升，预计到2023年将达到22%。该公司的Prime会员为其提供了大约占美国人口一半的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和运输网络，亚马逊FBA在其在线市场上看到第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户有着密切的关系，管理层也不断致力于满足该细分市场不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预计2021年增长正常化，但我们认为其前景继续受到电子商务和云计算市场不断增长的提振，并将我们的增长率预测修正为2021年的15.8%，随后修正为2020年的22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为购买目标价格为$4,363.96.</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143120804","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.\nWhile growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.\nAWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.\nWe revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.\n\n4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nSince our previous coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.\nDespite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3 guidance of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.\nSource: Amazon\nE-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth\nAmazon's online store sales have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.\nAccording to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to reach 22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.\n\n\n\nGlobal E-Commerce Market ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Global Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\n\n* B = C x A\nSource: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments\nAmazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.\nSource: Backlinko\nIn addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently attract sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.\nSource: Marketing Charts\nIts market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer & consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel & accessories, books music & video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.\nSource: eMarketer\nAmong the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having purchased electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker units and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average price of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.\nAll in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln products excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.\nThus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.\n\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\nGrowth %\n16.2%\n20.9%\n17.3%\n11.5%\n32.4%\n2.8%\n8.1%\n10.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')\n91.43\n108.35\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n18.5%\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')\n5.0%\n4.5%\n4.1%\n4.2%\n4.6%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n\n\n\n* B = A x C\n*D = B x E\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThe Rise of Third-party Seller Services\nAnother major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.\nWith Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.\nSelling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately provides more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising share of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.\nSource: FourWeekMBA\nThe chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it enhances its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business delivered 1.9 bln packages in the US.\nSource: WebFX\nMoreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming opening of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it announced plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.\nSource: CNBC\nOverall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has free Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.\nSource: Statista\nWe forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which represents 60% of its total sales.\n\n\n\nThird-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nGlobal Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Third Party Market Share ('b')\n5.6%\n5.5%\n5.4%\n6.0%\n6.9%\n7.5%\n8.1%\n8.9%\n\n\nGrowth %\n21%\n-2%\n-2%\n11%\n16%\n9%\n9%\n9%\n\n\nThird-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')\n103\n130\n160\n200\n295\n353\n443\n553\n\n\nGrowth %\n26.2%\n23.1%\n25.0%\n47.5%\n19.8%\n25.3%\n25.0%\n\n\n% Of Revenues ('d')\n22.3%\n24.5%\n26.7%\n26.9%\n27.3%\n27.6%\n27.8%\n28.1%\n\n\nGrowth %\n9.9%\n9.0%\n0.6%\n1.5%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services revenues ('e')\n22.99\n31.88\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n38.7%\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\n\n*C = A x B\n*E = C x D\nSource: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments\nAWS Growth by Data Volume Growth\nAnother key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.\nThe rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nWe projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23% CAGR through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.\n* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently announced a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.\nSource: Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nAll in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.\n\n\n\nAWS Forecasts\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nAWS Market Share\n32.6%\n32.3%\n31.8%\n31.2%\n31.0%\n30.7%\n\n\nAWS Revenues ($ bln)\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nWhile AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.\nSource: Amazon\nAntimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk\nAmazon has been involved in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.\nWhereas in the European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.\nValuation\nThe company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nMore importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the acquisition of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nThe company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.\nTo value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.\n\n\n\nCompany\nEV/EBITDA\n\n\nAmazon\n28.57x\n\n\nAlibaba (BABA)\n21.14x\n\n\nMicrosoft\n25.89x\n\n\nGoogle\n22.46x\n\n\nAverage\n24.52x\n\n\n\nSource: SeekingAlpha\nThe revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.\n\n\n\nAmazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nOnline stores\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPhysical stores\n17.22\n17.19\n16.23\n17.40\n18.55\n19.38\n\n\nGrowth %\n196.9%\n-0.2%\n-5.6%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\nSubscription services\n14.17\n19.21\n25.21\n34.67\n47.68\n65.58\n\n\nGrowth %\n45.8%\n35.6%\n31.2%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n\n\nAWS\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\nOther\n10.11\n14.09\n21.45\n31.27\n45.60\n66.48\n\n\nGrowth %\n117.4%\n39.4%\n52.2%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n\n\nTotal\n232.9\n280.53\n386.07\n447.0\n545.9\n669.1\n\n\nTotal Growth %\n30.9%\n20.5%\n37.6%\n15.8%\n22.1%\n22.6%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nBased on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.\nSource: Khaveen Investments\nVerdict\nIn conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5789530,"gmtCreate":1631073119923,"gmtModify":1634805643052,"authorId":3571482211918385,"author":{"id":3571482211918385,"idStr":"3571482211918385","authorId":3571482211918385,"name":"KTX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7d2d6c9788fbae7ed024ed5ba7c58e4","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":880468125,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":880468351,"gmtCreate":1631073073873,"gmtModify":1631890325619,"author":{"id":"3568154809054444","authorId":"3568154809054444","name":"HappyCloud","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39dc69f5461d4fc413d626e66aa91a90","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3568154809054444","authorIdStr":"3568154809054444"},"htmlText":"Like pls.","listText":"Like pls.","text":"Like pls.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880468351","repostId":1143120804,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143120804","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631072080,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143120804?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 11:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143120804","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth ra","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li> <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li> <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li> <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年收入增长超出我们预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍有望从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用DCF分析修改了估值，从3,358.73美元获得了4,303.18美元的新目标价。</li></ul>4kodiak/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</blockquote> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.<blockquote>自我们上次报道以来，亚马逊公司(AMZN)的股价已上涨26%，超出了我们24.5%的收入增长预期，并在2020年底上涨了37.6%，其在线零售业务增长了40%，达到近2000亿美元，第三方服务800亿美元。在本次分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和AWS。</blockquote> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.<blockquote>尽管第二季度网上商店销售额增长疲软13%，第三季度同比指引中点疲软13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力。亚马逊已确立市场地位的在线零售。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到2023年，电子商务的份额将从2020年的18%达到22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、作为忠实客户的庞大Prime会员基础以及坚实的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，正如其与第三方卖家的电子商务市场的崛起所证明的那样。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，持续致力于增长并以不断增长的数据量为基础。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth<blockquote>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</blockquote> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.<blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，加速了向电子商务的采用。然而，尽管2021年第二季度在线商店增长同比放缓13%，而第一季度为41%，但我们相信该公司将继续受益于电子商务采用率不断上升的长期推动力。</blockquote> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.<blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向在线购买，电子商务销售额的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将反弹7.2%。因此，2021年电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%实现正常化增长，渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = C x A<blockquote>*B=C x A</blockquote> Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.<blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争优势。更具体地说，很难在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上赢得公司的支持。显然，该公司的Prime会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司具有强大的吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也推动消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Backlinko<blockquote>资料来源：Backlinko</blockquote> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>除了Prime会员之外，该公司还能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，自2017年以来新增卖家330万人，即每天3,718人。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已确立了自己作为市场主导者的地位，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于第二接近的竞争对手。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Marketing Charts<blockquote>资料来源：营销图表</blockquote> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>如下表所示，其在不同产品类别和市场中的市场领导地位相当广泛。例如，其消费品和消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务总销售额的50.2%，占零售总额的26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: eMarketer<blockquote>资料来源：eMarketer</blockquote> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.<blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌(GOOG)和苹果(AAPL)，并继续通过新一代产品和软件更新来开发该产品。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据Echo产品系列103美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为39.4亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.<blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的不断增长，我们预计这一产品广度将继续扩大，并通过产品多样性为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.<blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有成熟的客户群和忠诚的Prime会员生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛的市场领导地位和广泛的产品广度的庞大卖家基础，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店增长是基于我们对其市场份额的预期（基于全球电子商务销售额的5年平均值）为4.5%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>零售销售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>16.2%<blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.9%<blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.3%<blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11.5%<blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.4%<blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.8%<blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.0%<blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入('d')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>91.43<blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></td> <td>108.35<blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>18.5%<blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额('e')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.0%<blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.1%<blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.2%<blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.6%<blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = A x C<blockquote>*B=A x C</blockquote> *D = B x E<blockquote>*D=B x E</blockquote> Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The Rise of Third-party Seller Services<blockquote>第三方卖家服务的兴起</blockquote> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.<blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和运输业务，这已成为一条难以逾越的护城河，很少有其他公司拥有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要送货提供商合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供的计划使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单。</blockquote> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.<blockquote>通过亚马逊物流（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的运营中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金以及相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、货件跟踪和报告。</blockquote> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.<blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更大的灵活性和控制力、更强大的品牌影响力和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的比例不断上升，达到总销售额的62%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: FourWeekMBA<blockquote>资料来源：FourWeekMBA</blockquote> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.<blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和运输网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和UPS竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其交付网络以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国运送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: WebFX<blockquote>来源：WebFX</blockquote> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.<blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，即将于2021年在密苏里州开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输大型客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020年，该公司宣布了7个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州600,000平方英尺的设施、田纳西州855,000平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州625,000平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CNBC<blockquote>资料来源：CNBC</blockquote> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.<blockquote>总体而言，这些都是该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面的优势的因素之一。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数人或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，公司的计划扩张将继续增强其物流网络并保持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista<blockquote>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</blockquote> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.<blockquote>我们预测了该公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，亚马逊的第三方商品销售总额预计将在过去5年的平均增长率为9%。此外，我们还预测，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的27.3%增长1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的60%至75%之间，低于AWS的80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率37%由于与占总销售额60%的销售成本相关的高成本。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额('b')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.6%<blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.5%<blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.4%<blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.0%<blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.9%<blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.5%<blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.9%<blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21%<blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11%<blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></td> <td>16%<blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊商城）GMV('c')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>103<blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></td> <td>130<blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></td> <td>160<blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></td> <td>200<blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></td> <td>295<blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></td> <td>353<blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></td> <td>443<blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></td> <td>553<blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>26.2%<blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>23.1%<blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.5%<blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.8%<blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.3%<blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>% Of Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>佔收入百分比（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.3%<blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>24.5%<blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.7%<blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.9%<blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.3%<blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.8%<blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>28.1%<blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9.9%<blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9.0%<blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>0.6%<blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.5%<blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.99<blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.88<blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>38.7%<blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> *C = A x B<blockquote>*C=A × B</blockquote> *E = C x D<blockquote>*E=C x D</blockquote> Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth<blockquote>AWS按数据量增长增长</blockquote> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.<blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有Netflix(NFLX)、Verizon(VZ)、Capital One(COF)、麦当劳(MCD)等著名大客户。2020年AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，占据云基础设施市场31.8%的市场份额。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已发展成为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软(MSFT)和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.<blockquote>到2025年，全球数据量将增长23%，这支撑了云基础设施市场的快速增长，因为随着数据分析、5G和物联网的兴起，世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.<blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长基于到2025年数据量以23%的CAGR增长，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>*A=B x C资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.<blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS，AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，例如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，以构建基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用区，并计划再推出15个可用区来支持其云增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Canalys、Khaveen投资</blockquote> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.<blockquote>总而言之，我们基于市场份额预测假设来预测AWS的收入增长，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢削弱，但在利用AWS的稳固大客户关系的支持下仍保持其市场领先地位。根据到2023年30.7%的市场份额预测，我们预计AWS收入将增长至815亿美元。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>AWS Forecasts<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>AWS预测</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Market Share<blockquote><tr><td>AWS市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>32.6%<blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.3%<blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.8%<blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.0%<blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>30.7%<blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><tr><td>AWS收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.<blockquote>虽然AWS仅占其总收入的11%，但与其他公司部门的2.8%相比，其29%的高利润率使AWS在2020年占营业收入的59%，这凸显了AWS对其利润的重要性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk<blockquote>反垄断和数据隐私罚款风险</blockquote> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.<blockquote>民主党的报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家那里获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为40%。由于卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取额外费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，由众议院议员组成的两党小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司在一系列广泛的反垄断改革下对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.<blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊遭受了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临8.88亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反了欧盟的通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR允许罚款高达亚马逊收入的4%，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊2020年213亿美元收入的4.2%。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.<blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其利润率不断上升，因为由于其利润率更高的云业务的卓越增长，其净利润率也有所上升。AWS部门的营业利润率高达29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为2.8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.<blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有良好且强大的现金产生能力，过去5年的平均自由现金流利润率为3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购Whole Foods，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于利润率的上升，因为其利润更高的AWS业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.<blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其偿还债务的强大能力。2020年其净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着AWS的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去5年中从32倍稳步上升。</blockquote> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.<blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了DCF估值，因为该公司过去拥有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到的行业平均EV/EBITDA为27.64倍，如下表所示。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Company<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>公司</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>EV/EBITDA<blockquote><td>EV/EBITDA</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>28.57x<blockquote><td>28.57 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Alibaba (BABA)<blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（父亲）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21.14x<blockquote><td>21.14 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Microsoft<blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.89x<blockquote><td>25.89 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Google<blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.46x<blockquote><td>22.46 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Average<blockquote><tr><td>均值</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>24.52x<blockquote><td>24.52 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: SeekingAlpha<blockquote>来源：SeekingAlpha</blockquote> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.<blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS和其他的收入细分总结如下。网上商店预测源自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售额增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场中的第三方卖家GMV份额，并假设其从佣金和相关费用中获得%的收入。基于不断增长的数据量预测，AWS收入来自云市场增长。其他细分市场基于其平均3年增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，并从2027年的12.3%逐步下调，到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务和云计算市场将更加成熟。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Online stores<blockquote><tr><td>在线商店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Physical stores<blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>17.22<blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.19<blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></td> <td>16.23<blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.40<blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></td> <td>18.55<blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.38<blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>196.9%<blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-0.2%<blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-5.6%<blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Subscription services<blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>14.17<blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.21<blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.21<blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.67<blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.68<blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></td> <td>65.58<blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.6%<blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS<blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Other<blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>10.11<blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.09<blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.45<blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.27<blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.60<blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.48<blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>117.4%<blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.4%<blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>52.2%<blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total<blockquote><tr><td>总的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>232.9<blockquote><td>232.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.53<blockquote><td>280.53</td></blockquote></td> <td>386.07<blockquote><td>386.07</td></blockquote></td> <td>447.0<blockquote><td>447.0</td></blockquote></td> <td>545.9<blockquote><td>545.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>669.1<blockquote><td>669.1</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>总增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>30.9%<blockquote><td>30.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.5%<blockquote><td>20.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.6%<blockquote><td>37.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.8%<blockquote><td>15.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.1%<blockquote><td>22.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.6%<blockquote><td>22.6%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.<blockquote>基于12.7%的贴现率（公司的WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为36.9%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：卡文投资</blockquote> Verdict<blockquote>裁决</blockquote> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.<blockquote>总之，我们分析了该公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和AWS。虽然加速增长最终结束，但作为电子商务领域成熟且占主导地位的市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为转向电子商务，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比预计将继续上升，预计到2023年将达到22%。该公司的Prime会员为其提供了大约占美国人口一半的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和运输网络，亚马逊FBA在其在线市场上看到第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户有着密切的关系，管理层也不断致力于满足该细分市场不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预计2021年增长正常化，但我们认为其前景继续受到电子商务和云计算市场不断增长的提振，并将我们的增长率预测修正为2021年的15.8%，随后修正为2020年的22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为购买目标价格为$4,363.96.</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-09-08 11:34\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li> <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li> <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li> <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年收入增长超出我们预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍有望从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用DCF分析修改了估值，从3,358.73美元获得了4,303.18美元的新目标价。</li></ul>4kodiak/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</blockquote> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.<blockquote>自我们上次报道以来，亚马逊公司(AMZN)的股价已上涨26%，超出了我们24.5%的收入增长预期，并在2020年底上涨了37.6%，其在线零售业务增长了40%，达到近2000亿美元，第三方服务800亿美元。在本次分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和AWS。</blockquote> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.<blockquote>尽管第二季度网上商店销售额增长疲软13%，第三季度同比指引中点疲软13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力。亚马逊已确立市场地位的在线零售。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到2023年，电子商务的份额将从2020年的18%达到22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、作为忠实客户的庞大Prime会员基础以及坚实的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，正如其与第三方卖家的电子商务市场的崛起所证明的那样。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，持续致力于增长并以不断增长的数据量为基础。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth<blockquote>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</blockquote> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.<blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，加速了向电子商务的采用。然而，尽管2021年第二季度在线商店增长同比放缓13%，而第一季度为41%，但我们相信该公司将继续受益于电子商务采用率不断上升的长期推动力。</blockquote> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.<blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向在线购买，电子商务销售额的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将反弹7.2%。因此，2021年电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%实现正常化增长，渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = C x A<blockquote>*B=C x A</blockquote> Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.<blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争优势。更具体地说，很难在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上赢得公司的支持。显然，该公司的Prime会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司具有强大的吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也推动消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Backlinko<blockquote>资料来源：Backlinko</blockquote> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>除了Prime会员之外，该公司还能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，自2017年以来新增卖家330万人，即每天3,718人。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已确立了自己作为市场主导者的地位，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于第二接近的竞争对手。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Marketing Charts<blockquote>资料来源：营销图表</blockquote> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>如下表所示，其在不同产品类别和市场中的市场领导地位相当广泛。例如，其消费品和消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务总销售额的50.2%，占零售总额的26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: eMarketer<blockquote>资料来源：eMarketer</blockquote> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.<blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌(GOOG)和苹果(AAPL)，并继续通过新一代产品和软件更新来开发该产品。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据Echo产品系列103美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为39.4亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.<blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的不断增长，我们预计这一产品广度将继续扩大，并通过产品多样性为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.<blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有成熟的客户群和忠诚的Prime会员生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛的市场领导地位和广泛的产品广度的庞大卖家基础，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店增长是基于我们对其市场份额的预期（基于全球电子商务销售额的5年平均值）为4.5%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>零售销售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>16.2%<blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.9%<blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.3%<blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11.5%<blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.4%<blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.8%<blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.0%<blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入('d')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>91.43<blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></td> <td>108.35<blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>18.5%<blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额('e')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.0%<blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.1%<blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.2%<blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.6%<blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = A x C<blockquote>*B=A x C</blockquote> *D = B x E<blockquote>*D=B x E</blockquote> Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The Rise of Third-party Seller Services<blockquote>第三方卖家服务的兴起</blockquote> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.<blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和运输业务，这已成为一条难以逾越的护城河，很少有其他公司拥有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要送货提供商合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供的计划使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单。</blockquote> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.<blockquote>通过亚马逊物流（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的运营中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金以及相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、货件跟踪和报告。</blockquote> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.<blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更大的灵活性和控制力、更强大的品牌影响力和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的比例不断上升，达到总销售额的62%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: FourWeekMBA<blockquote>资料来源：FourWeekMBA</blockquote> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.<blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和运输网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和UPS竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其交付网络以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国运送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: WebFX<blockquote>来源：WebFX</blockquote> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.<blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，即将于2021年在密苏里州开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输大型客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020年，该公司宣布了7个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州600,000平方英尺的设施、田纳西州855,000平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州625,000平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CNBC<blockquote>资料来源：CNBC</blockquote> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.<blockquote>总体而言，这些都是该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面的优势的因素之一。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数人或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，公司的计划扩张将继续增强其物流网络并保持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista<blockquote>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</blockquote> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.<blockquote>我们预测了该公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，亚马逊的第三方商品销售总额预计将在过去5年的平均增长率为9%。此外，我们还预测，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的27.3%增长1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的60%至75%之间，低于AWS的80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率37%由于与占总销售额60%的销售成本相关的高成本。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额('b')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.6%<blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.5%<blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.4%<blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.0%<blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.9%<blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.5%<blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.9%<blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21%<blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11%<blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></td> <td>16%<blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊商城）GMV('c')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>103<blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></td> <td>130<blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></td> <td>160<blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></td> <td>200<blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></td> <td>295<blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></td> <td>353<blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></td> <td>443<blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></td> <td>553<blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>26.2%<blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>23.1%<blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.5%<blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.8%<blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.3%<blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>% Of Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>佔收入百分比（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.3%<blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>24.5%<blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.7%<blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.9%<blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.3%<blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.8%<blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>28.1%<blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9.9%<blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9.0%<blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>0.6%<blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.5%<blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.99<blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.88<blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>38.7%<blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> *C = A x B<blockquote>*C=A × B</blockquote> *E = C x D<blockquote>*E=C x D</blockquote> Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth<blockquote>AWS按数据量增长增长</blockquote> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.<blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有Netflix(NFLX)、Verizon(VZ)、Capital One(COF)、麦当劳(MCD)等著名大客户。2020年AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，占据云基础设施市场31.8%的市场份额。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已发展成为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软(MSFT)和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.<blockquote>到2025年，全球数据量将增长23%，这支撑了云基础设施市场的快速增长，因为随着数据分析、5G和物联网的兴起，世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.<blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长基于到2025年数据量以23%的CAGR增长，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>*A=B x C资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.<blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS，AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，例如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，以构建基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用区，并计划再推出15个可用区来支持其云增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Canalys、Khaveen投资</blockquote> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.<blockquote>总而言之，我们基于市场份额预测假设来预测AWS的收入增长，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢削弱，但在利用AWS的稳固大客户关系的支持下仍保持其市场领先地位。根据到2023年30.7%的市场份额预测，我们预计AWS收入将增长至815亿美元。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>AWS Forecasts<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>AWS预测</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Market Share<blockquote><tr><td>AWS市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>32.6%<blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.3%<blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.8%<blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.0%<blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>30.7%<blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><tr><td>AWS收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.<blockquote>虽然AWS仅占其总收入的11%，但与其他公司部门的2.8%相比，其29%的高利润率使AWS在2020年占营业收入的59%，这凸显了AWS对其利润的重要性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk<blockquote>反垄断和数据隐私罚款风险</blockquote> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.<blockquote>民主党的报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家那里获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为40%。由于卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取额外费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，由众议院议员组成的两党小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司在一系列广泛的反垄断改革下对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.<blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊遭受了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临8.88亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反了欧盟的通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR允许罚款高达亚马逊收入的4%，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊2020年213亿美元收入的4.2%。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.<blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其利润率不断上升，因为由于其利润率更高的云业务的卓越增长，其净利润率也有所上升。AWS部门的营业利润率高达29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为2.8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.<blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有良好且强大的现金产生能力，过去5年的平均自由现金流利润率为3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购Whole Foods，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于利润率的上升，因为其利润更高的AWS业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.<blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其偿还债务的强大能力。2020年其净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着AWS的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去5年中从32倍稳步上升。</blockquote> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.<blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了DCF估值，因为该公司过去拥有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到的行业平均EV/EBITDA为27.64倍，如下表所示。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Company<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>公司</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>EV/EBITDA<blockquote><td>EV/EBITDA</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>28.57x<blockquote><td>28.57 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Alibaba (BABA)<blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（父亲）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21.14x<blockquote><td>21.14 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Microsoft<blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.89x<blockquote><td>25.89 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Google<blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.46x<blockquote><td>22.46 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Average<blockquote><tr><td>均值</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>24.52x<blockquote><td>24.52 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: SeekingAlpha<blockquote>来源：SeekingAlpha</blockquote> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.<blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS和其他的收入细分总结如下。网上商店预测源自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售额增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场中的第三方卖家GMV份额，并假设其从佣金和相关费用中获得%的收入。基于不断增长的数据量预测，AWS收入来自云市场增长。其他细分市场基于其平均3年增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，并从2027年的12.3%逐步下调，到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务和云计算市场将更加成熟。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Online stores<blockquote><tr><td>在线商店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Physical stores<blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>17.22<blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.19<blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></td> <td>16.23<blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.40<blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></td> <td>18.55<blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.38<blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>196.9%<blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-0.2%<blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-5.6%<blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Subscription services<blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>14.17<blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.21<blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.21<blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.67<blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.68<blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></td> <td>65.58<blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.6%<blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS<blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Other<blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>10.11<blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.09<blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.45<blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.27<blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.60<blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.48<blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>117.4%<blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.4%<blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>52.2%<blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total<blockquote><tr><td>总的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>232.9<blockquote><td>232.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.53<blockquote><td>280.53</td></blockquote></td> <td>386.07<blockquote><td>386.07</td></blockquote></td> <td>447.0<blockquote><td>447.0</td></blockquote></td> <td>545.9<blockquote><td>545.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>669.1<blockquote><td>669.1</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>总增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>30.9%<blockquote><td>30.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.5%<blockquote><td>20.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.6%<blockquote><td>37.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.8%<blockquote><td>15.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.1%<blockquote><td>22.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.6%<blockquote><td>22.6%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.<blockquote>基于12.7%的贴现率（公司的WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为36.9%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：卡文投资</blockquote> Verdict<blockquote>裁决</blockquote> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.<blockquote>总之，我们分析了该公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和AWS。虽然加速增长最终结束，但作为电子商务领域成熟且占主导地位的市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为转向电子商务，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比预计将继续上升，预计到2023年将达到22%。该公司的Prime会员为其提供了大约占美国人口一半的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和运输网络，亚马逊FBA在其在线市场上看到第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户有着密切的关系，管理层也不断致力于满足该细分市场不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预计2021年增长正常化，但我们认为其前景继续受到电子商务和云计算市场不断增长的提振，并将我们的增长率预测修正为2021年的15.8%，随后修正为2020年的22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为购买目标价格为$4,363.96.</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143120804","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.\nWhile growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.\nAWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.\nWe revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.\n\n4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nSince our previous coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.\nDespite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3 guidance of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.\nSource: Amazon\nE-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth\nAmazon's online store sales have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.\nAccording to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to reach 22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.\n\n\n\nGlobal E-Commerce Market ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Global Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\n\n* B = C x A\nSource: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments\nAmazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.\nSource: Backlinko\nIn addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently attract sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.\nSource: Marketing Charts\nIts market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer & consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel & accessories, books music & video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.\nSource: eMarketer\nAmong the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having purchased electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker units and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average price of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.\nAll in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln products excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.\nThus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.\n\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\nGrowth %\n16.2%\n20.9%\n17.3%\n11.5%\n32.4%\n2.8%\n8.1%\n10.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')\n91.43\n108.35\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n18.5%\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')\n5.0%\n4.5%\n4.1%\n4.2%\n4.6%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n\n\n\n* B = A x C\n*D = B x E\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThe Rise of Third-party Seller Services\nAnother major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.\nWith Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.\nSelling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately provides more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising share of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.\nSource: FourWeekMBA\nThe chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it enhances its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business delivered 1.9 bln packages in the US.\nSource: WebFX\nMoreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming opening of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it announced plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.\nSource: CNBC\nOverall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has free Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.\nSource: Statista\nWe forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which represents 60% of its total sales.\n\n\n\nThird-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nGlobal Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Third Party Market Share ('b')\n5.6%\n5.5%\n5.4%\n6.0%\n6.9%\n7.5%\n8.1%\n8.9%\n\n\nGrowth %\n21%\n-2%\n-2%\n11%\n16%\n9%\n9%\n9%\n\n\nThird-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')\n103\n130\n160\n200\n295\n353\n443\n553\n\n\nGrowth %\n26.2%\n23.1%\n25.0%\n47.5%\n19.8%\n25.3%\n25.0%\n\n\n% Of Revenues ('d')\n22.3%\n24.5%\n26.7%\n26.9%\n27.3%\n27.6%\n27.8%\n28.1%\n\n\nGrowth %\n9.9%\n9.0%\n0.6%\n1.5%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services revenues ('e')\n22.99\n31.88\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n38.7%\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\n\n*C = A x B\n*E = C x D\nSource: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments\nAWS Growth by Data Volume Growth\nAnother key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.\nThe rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nWe projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23% CAGR through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.\n* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently announced a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.\nSource: Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nAll in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.\n\n\n\nAWS Forecasts\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nAWS Market Share\n32.6%\n32.3%\n31.8%\n31.2%\n31.0%\n30.7%\n\n\nAWS Revenues ($ bln)\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nWhile AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.\nSource: Amazon\nAntimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk\nAmazon has been involved in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.\nWhereas in the European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.\nValuation\nThe company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nMore importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the acquisition of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nThe company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.\nTo value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.\n\n\n\nCompany\nEV/EBITDA\n\n\nAmazon\n28.57x\n\n\nAlibaba (BABA)\n21.14x\n\n\nMicrosoft\n25.89x\n\n\nGoogle\n22.46x\n\n\nAverage\n24.52x\n\n\n\nSource: SeekingAlpha\nThe revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.\n\n\n\nAmazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nOnline stores\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPhysical stores\n17.22\n17.19\n16.23\n17.40\n18.55\n19.38\n\n\nGrowth %\n196.9%\n-0.2%\n-5.6%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\nSubscription services\n14.17\n19.21\n25.21\n34.67\n47.68\n65.58\n\n\nGrowth %\n45.8%\n35.6%\n31.2%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n\n\nAWS\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\nOther\n10.11\n14.09\n21.45\n31.27\n45.60\n66.48\n\n\nGrowth %\n117.4%\n39.4%\n52.2%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n\n\nTotal\n232.9\n280.53\n386.07\n447.0\n545.9\n669.1\n\n\nTotal Growth %\n30.9%\n20.5%\n37.6%\n15.8%\n22.1%\n22.6%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nBased on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.\nSource: Khaveen Investments\nVerdict\nIn conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5789528,"gmtCreate":1631073087841,"gmtModify":1631890325676,"authorId":3584096547807045,"author":{"id":3584096547807045,"idStr":"3584096547807045","authorId":3584096547807045,"name":"wongzj","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":880468351,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"cool","text":"cool","html":"cool"},{"id":5789525,"gmtCreate":1631073084082,"gmtModify":1631890325618,"authorId":3582695199024912,"author":{"id":3582695199024912,"idStr":"3582695199024912","authorId":3582695199024912,"name":"156e74f9","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":880468351,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Done","text":"Done","html":"Done"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":880461255,"gmtCreate":1631073046277,"gmtModify":1631891497761,"author":{"id":"3586392338558856","authorId":"3586392338558856","name":"Jokhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d189ae3ec01747be0bd951c14c32cb94","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3586392338558856","authorIdStr":"3586392338558856"},"htmlText":"[Smile]&nbsp;","listText":"[Smile]&nbsp;","text":"[Smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880461255","repostId":1143120804,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143120804","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631072080,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143120804?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 11:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143120804","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth ra","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li> <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li> <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li> <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年收入增长超出我们预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍有望从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用DCF分析修改了估值，从3,358.73美元获得了4,303.18美元的新目标价。</li></ul>4kodiak/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</blockquote> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.<blockquote>自我们上次报道以来，亚马逊公司(AMZN)的股价已上涨26%，超出了我们24.5%的收入增长预期，并在2020年底上涨了37.6%，其在线零售业务增长了40%，达到近2000亿美元，第三方服务800亿美元。在本次分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和AWS。</blockquote> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.<blockquote>尽管第二季度网上商店销售额增长疲软13%，第三季度同比指引中点疲软13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力。亚马逊已确立市场地位的在线零售。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到2023年，电子商务的份额将从2020年的18%达到22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、作为忠实客户的庞大Prime会员基础以及坚实的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，正如其与第三方卖家的电子商务市场的崛起所证明的那样。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，持续致力于增长并以不断增长的数据量为基础。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth<blockquote>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</blockquote> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.<blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，加速了向电子商务的采用。然而，尽管2021年第二季度在线商店增长同比放缓13%，而第一季度为41%，但我们相信该公司将继续受益于电子商务采用率不断上升的长期推动力。</blockquote> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.<blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向在线购买，电子商务销售额的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将反弹7.2%。因此，2021年电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%实现正常化增长，渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = C x A<blockquote>*B=C x A</blockquote> Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.<blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争优势。更具体地说，很难在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上赢得公司的支持。显然，该公司的Prime会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司具有强大的吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也推动消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Backlinko<blockquote>资料来源：Backlinko</blockquote> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>除了Prime会员之外，该公司还能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，自2017年以来新增卖家330万人，即每天3,718人。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已确立了自己作为市场主导者的地位，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于第二接近的竞争对手。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Marketing Charts<blockquote>资料来源：营销图表</blockquote> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>如下表所示，其在不同产品类别和市场中的市场领导地位相当广泛。例如，其消费品和消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务总销售额的50.2%，占零售总额的26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: eMarketer<blockquote>资料来源：eMarketer</blockquote> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.<blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌(GOOG)和苹果(AAPL)，并继续通过新一代产品和软件更新来开发该产品。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据Echo产品系列103美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为39.4亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.<blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的不断增长，我们预计这一产品广度将继续扩大，并通过产品多样性为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.<blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有成熟的客户群和忠诚的Prime会员生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛的市场领导地位和广泛的产品广度的庞大卖家基础，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店增长是基于我们对其市场份额的预期（基于全球电子商务销售额的5年平均值）为4.5%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>零售销售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>16.2%<blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.9%<blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.3%<blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11.5%<blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.4%<blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.8%<blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.0%<blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入('d')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>91.43<blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></td> <td>108.35<blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>18.5%<blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额('e')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.0%<blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.1%<blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.2%<blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.6%<blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = A x C<blockquote>*B=A x C</blockquote> *D = B x E<blockquote>*D=B x E</blockquote> Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The Rise of Third-party Seller Services<blockquote>第三方卖家服务的兴起</blockquote> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.<blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和运输业务，这已成为一条难以逾越的护城河，很少有其他公司拥有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要送货提供商合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供的计划使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单。</blockquote> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.<blockquote>通过亚马逊物流（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的运营中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金以及相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、货件跟踪和报告。</blockquote> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.<blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更大的灵活性和控制力、更强大的品牌影响力和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的比例不断上升，达到总销售额的62%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: FourWeekMBA<blockquote>资料来源：FourWeekMBA</blockquote> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.<blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和运输网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和UPS竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其交付网络以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国运送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: WebFX<blockquote>来源：WebFX</blockquote> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.<blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，即将于2021年在密苏里州开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输大型客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020年，该公司宣布了7个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州600,000平方英尺的设施、田纳西州855,000平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州625,000平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CNBC<blockquote>资料来源：CNBC</blockquote> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.<blockquote>总体而言，这些都是该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面的优势的因素之一。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数人或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，公司的计划扩张将继续增强其物流网络并保持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista<blockquote>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</blockquote> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.<blockquote>我们预测了该公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，亚马逊的第三方商品销售总额预计将在过去5年的平均增长率为9%。此外，我们还预测，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的27.3%增长1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的60%至75%之间，低于AWS的80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率37%由于与占总销售额60%的销售成本相关的高成本。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额('b')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.6%<blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.5%<blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.4%<blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.0%<blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.9%<blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.5%<blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.9%<blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21%<blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11%<blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></td> <td>16%<blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊商城）GMV('c')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>103<blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></td> <td>130<blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></td> <td>160<blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></td> <td>200<blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></td> <td>295<blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></td> <td>353<blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></td> <td>443<blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></td> <td>553<blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>26.2%<blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>23.1%<blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.5%<blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.8%<blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.3%<blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>% Of Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>佔收入百分比（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.3%<blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>24.5%<blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.7%<blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.9%<blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.3%<blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.8%<blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>28.1%<blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9.9%<blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9.0%<blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>0.6%<blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.5%<blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.99<blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.88<blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>38.7%<blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> *C = A x B<blockquote>*C=A × B</blockquote> *E = C x D<blockquote>*E=C x D</blockquote> Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth<blockquote>AWS按数据量增长增长</blockquote> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.<blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有Netflix(NFLX)、Verizon(VZ)、Capital One(COF)、麦当劳(MCD)等著名大客户。2020年AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，占据云基础设施市场31.8%的市场份额。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已发展成为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软(MSFT)和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.<blockquote>到2025年，全球数据量将增长23%，这支撑了云基础设施市场的快速增长，因为随着数据分析、5G和物联网的兴起，世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.<blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长基于到2025年数据量以23%的CAGR增长，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>*A=B x C资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.<blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS，AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，例如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，以构建基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用区，并计划再推出15个可用区来支持其云增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Canalys、Khaveen投资</blockquote> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.<blockquote>总而言之，我们基于市场份额预测假设来预测AWS的收入增长，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢削弱，但在利用AWS的稳固大客户关系的支持下仍保持其市场领先地位。根据到2023年30.7%的市场份额预测，我们预计AWS收入将增长至815亿美元。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>AWS Forecasts<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>AWS预测</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Market Share<blockquote><tr><td>AWS市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>32.6%<blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.3%<blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.8%<blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.0%<blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>30.7%<blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><tr><td>AWS收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.<blockquote>虽然AWS仅占其总收入的11%，但与其他公司部门的2.8%相比，其29%的高利润率使AWS在2020年占营业收入的59%，这凸显了AWS对其利润的重要性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk<blockquote>反垄断和数据隐私罚款风险</blockquote> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.<blockquote>民主党的报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家那里获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为40%。由于卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取额外费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，由众议院议员组成的两党小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司在一系列广泛的反垄断改革下对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.<blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊遭受了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临8.88亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反了欧盟的通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR允许罚款高达亚马逊收入的4%，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊2020年213亿美元收入的4.2%。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.<blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其利润率不断上升，因为由于其利润率更高的云业务的卓越增长，其净利润率也有所上升。AWS部门的营业利润率高达29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为2.8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.<blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有良好且强大的现金产生能力，过去5年的平均自由现金流利润率为3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购Whole Foods，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于利润率的上升，因为其利润更高的AWS业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.<blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其偿还债务的强大能力。2020年其净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着AWS的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去5年中从32倍稳步上升。</blockquote> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.<blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了DCF估值，因为该公司过去拥有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到的行业平均EV/EBITDA为27.64倍，如下表所示。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Company<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>公司</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>EV/EBITDA<blockquote><td>EV/EBITDA</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>28.57x<blockquote><td>28.57 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Alibaba (BABA)<blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（父亲）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21.14x<blockquote><td>21.14 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Microsoft<blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.89x<blockquote><td>25.89 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Google<blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.46x<blockquote><td>22.46 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Average<blockquote><tr><td>均值</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>24.52x<blockquote><td>24.52 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: SeekingAlpha<blockquote>来源：SeekingAlpha</blockquote> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.<blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS和其他的收入细分总结如下。网上商店预测源自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售额增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场中的第三方卖家GMV份额，并假设其从佣金和相关费用中获得%的收入。基于不断增长的数据量预测，AWS收入来自云市场增长。其他细分市场基于其平均3年增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，并从2027年的12.3%逐步下调，到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务和云计算市场将更加成熟。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Online stores<blockquote><tr><td>在线商店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Physical stores<blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>17.22<blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.19<blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></td> <td>16.23<blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.40<blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></td> <td>18.55<blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.38<blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>196.9%<blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-0.2%<blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-5.6%<blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Subscription services<blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>14.17<blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.21<blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.21<blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.67<blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.68<blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></td> <td>65.58<blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.6%<blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS<blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Other<blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>10.11<blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.09<blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.45<blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.27<blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.60<blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.48<blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>117.4%<blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.4%<blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>52.2%<blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total<blockquote><tr><td>总的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>232.9<blockquote><td>232.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.53<blockquote><td>280.53</td></blockquote></td> <td>386.07<blockquote><td>386.07</td></blockquote></td> <td>447.0<blockquote><td>447.0</td></blockquote></td> <td>545.9<blockquote><td>545.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>669.1<blockquote><td>669.1</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>总增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>30.9%<blockquote><td>30.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.5%<blockquote><td>20.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.6%<blockquote><td>37.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.8%<blockquote><td>15.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.1%<blockquote><td>22.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.6%<blockquote><td>22.6%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.<blockquote>基于12.7%的贴现率（公司的WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为36.9%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：卡文投资</blockquote> Verdict<blockquote>裁决</blockquote> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.<blockquote>总之，我们分析了该公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和AWS。虽然加速增长最终结束，但作为电子商务领域成熟且占主导地位的市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为转向电子商务，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比预计将继续上升，预计到2023年将达到22%。该公司的Prime会员为其提供了大约占美国人口一半的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和运输网络，亚马逊FBA在其在线市场上看到第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户有着密切的关系，管理层也不断致力于满足该细分市场不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预计2021年增长正常化，但我们认为其前景继续受到电子商务和云计算市场不断增长的提振，并将我们的增长率预测修正为2021年的15.8%，随后修正为2020年的22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为购买目标价格为$4,363.96.</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-09-08 11:34\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li> <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li> <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li> <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年收入增长超出我们预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍有望从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用DCF分析修改了估值，从3,358.73美元获得了4,303.18美元的新目标价。</li></ul>4kodiak/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</blockquote> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.<blockquote>自我们上次报道以来，亚马逊公司(AMZN)的股价已上涨26%，超出了我们24.5%的收入增长预期，并在2020年底上涨了37.6%，其在线零售业务增长了40%，达到近2000亿美元，第三方服务800亿美元。在本次分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和AWS。</blockquote> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.<blockquote>尽管第二季度网上商店销售额增长疲软13%，第三季度同比指引中点疲软13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力。亚马逊已确立市场地位的在线零售。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到2023年，电子商务的份额将从2020年的18%达到22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、作为忠实客户的庞大Prime会员基础以及坚实的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，正如其与第三方卖家的电子商务市场的崛起所证明的那样。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，持续致力于增长并以不断增长的数据量为基础。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth<blockquote>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</blockquote> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.<blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，加速了向电子商务的采用。然而，尽管2021年第二季度在线商店增长同比放缓13%，而第一季度为41%，但我们相信该公司将继续受益于电子商务采用率不断上升的长期推动力。</blockquote> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.<blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向在线购买，电子商务销售额的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将反弹7.2%。因此，2021年电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%实现正常化增长，渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = C x A<blockquote>*B=C x A</blockquote> Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.<blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争优势。更具体地说，很难在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上赢得公司的支持。显然，该公司的Prime会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司具有强大的吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也推动消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Backlinko<blockquote>资料来源：Backlinko</blockquote> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>除了Prime会员之外，该公司还能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，自2017年以来新增卖家330万人，即每天3,718人。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已确立了自己作为市场主导者的地位，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于第二接近的竞争对手。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Marketing Charts<blockquote>资料来源：营销图表</blockquote> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>如下表所示，其在不同产品类别和市场中的市场领导地位相当广泛。例如，其消费品和消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务总销售额的50.2%，占零售总额的26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: eMarketer<blockquote>资料来源：eMarketer</blockquote> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.<blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌(GOOG)和苹果(AAPL)，并继续通过新一代产品和软件更新来开发该产品。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据Echo产品系列103美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为39.4亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.<blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的不断增长，我们预计这一产品广度将继续扩大，并通过产品多样性为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.<blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有成熟的客户群和忠诚的Prime会员生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛的市场领导地位和广泛的产品广度的庞大卖家基础，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店增长是基于我们对其市场份额的预期（基于全球电子商务销售额的5年平均值）为4.5%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>零售销售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>16.2%<blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.9%<blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.3%<blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11.5%<blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.4%<blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.8%<blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.0%<blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入('d')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>91.43<blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></td> <td>108.35<blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>18.5%<blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额('e')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.0%<blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.1%<blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.2%<blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.6%<blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = A x C<blockquote>*B=A x C</blockquote> *D = B x E<blockquote>*D=B x E</blockquote> Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The Rise of Third-party Seller Services<blockquote>第三方卖家服务的兴起</blockquote> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.<blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和运输业务，这已成为一条难以逾越的护城河，很少有其他公司拥有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要送货提供商合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供的计划使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单。</blockquote> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.<blockquote>通过亚马逊物流（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的运营中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金以及相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、货件跟踪和报告。</blockquote> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.<blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更大的灵活性和控制力、更强大的品牌影响力和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的比例不断上升，达到总销售额的62%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: FourWeekMBA<blockquote>资料来源：FourWeekMBA</blockquote> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.<blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和运输网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和UPS竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其交付网络以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国运送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: WebFX<blockquote>来源：WebFX</blockquote> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.<blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，即将于2021年在密苏里州开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输大型客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020年，该公司宣布了7个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州600,000平方英尺的设施、田纳西州855,000平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州625,000平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CNBC<blockquote>资料来源：CNBC</blockquote> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.<blockquote>总体而言，这些都是该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面的优势的因素之一。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数人或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，公司的计划扩张将继续增强其物流网络并保持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista<blockquote>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</blockquote> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.<blockquote>我们预测了该公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，亚马逊的第三方商品销售总额预计将在过去5年的平均增长率为9%。此外，我们还预测，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的27.3%增长1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的60%至75%之间，低于AWS的80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率37%由于与占总销售额60%的销售成本相关的高成本。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额('b')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.6%<blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.5%<blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.4%<blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.0%<blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.9%<blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.5%<blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.9%<blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21%<blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11%<blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></td> <td>16%<blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊商城）GMV('c')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>103<blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></td> <td>130<blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></td> <td>160<blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></td> <td>200<blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></td> <td>295<blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></td> <td>353<blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></td> <td>443<blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></td> <td>553<blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>26.2%<blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>23.1%<blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.5%<blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.8%<blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.3%<blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>% Of Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>佔收入百分比（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.3%<blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>24.5%<blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.7%<blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.9%<blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.3%<blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.8%<blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>28.1%<blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9.9%<blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9.0%<blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>0.6%<blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.5%<blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.99<blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.88<blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>38.7%<blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> *C = A x B<blockquote>*C=A × B</blockquote> *E = C x D<blockquote>*E=C x D</blockquote> Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth<blockquote>AWS按数据量增长增长</blockquote> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.<blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有Netflix(NFLX)、Verizon(VZ)、Capital One(COF)、麦当劳(MCD)等著名大客户。2020年AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，占据云基础设施市场31.8%的市场份额。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已发展成为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软(MSFT)和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.<blockquote>到2025年，全球数据量将增长23%，这支撑了云基础设施市场的快速增长，因为随着数据分析、5G和物联网的兴起，世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.<blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长基于到2025年数据量以23%的CAGR增长，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>*A=B x C资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.<blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS，AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，例如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，以构建基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用区，并计划再推出15个可用区来支持其云增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Canalys、Khaveen投资</blockquote> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.<blockquote>总而言之，我们基于市场份额预测假设来预测AWS的收入增长，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢削弱，但在利用AWS的稳固大客户关系的支持下仍保持其市场领先地位。根据到2023年30.7%的市场份额预测，我们预计AWS收入将增长至815亿美元。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>AWS Forecasts<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>AWS预测</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Market Share<blockquote><tr><td>AWS市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>32.6%<blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.3%<blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.8%<blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.0%<blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>30.7%<blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><tr><td>AWS收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.<blockquote>虽然AWS仅占其总收入的11%，但与其他公司部门的2.8%相比，其29%的高利润率使AWS在2020年占营业收入的59%，这凸显了AWS对其利润的重要性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk<blockquote>反垄断和数据隐私罚款风险</blockquote> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.<blockquote>民主党的报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家那里获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为40%。由于卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取额外费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，由众议院议员组成的两党小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司在一系列广泛的反垄断改革下对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.<blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊遭受了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临8.88亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反了欧盟的通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR允许罚款高达亚马逊收入的4%，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊2020年213亿美元收入的4.2%。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.<blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其利润率不断上升，因为由于其利润率更高的云业务的卓越增长，其净利润率也有所上升。AWS部门的营业利润率高达29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为2.8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.<blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有良好且强大的现金产生能力，过去5年的平均自由现金流利润率为3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购Whole Foods，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于利润率的上升，因为其利润更高的AWS业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.<blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其偿还债务的强大能力。2020年其净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着AWS的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去5年中从32倍稳步上升。</blockquote> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.<blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了DCF估值，因为该公司过去拥有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到的行业平均EV/EBITDA为27.64倍，如下表所示。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Company<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>公司</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>EV/EBITDA<blockquote><td>EV/EBITDA</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>28.57x<blockquote><td>28.57 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Alibaba (BABA)<blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（父亲）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21.14x<blockquote><td>21.14 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Microsoft<blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.89x<blockquote><td>25.89 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Google<blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.46x<blockquote><td>22.46 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Average<blockquote><tr><td>均值</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>24.52x<blockquote><td>24.52 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: SeekingAlpha<blockquote>来源：SeekingAlpha</blockquote> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.<blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS和其他的收入细分总结如下。网上商店预测源自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售额增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场中的第三方卖家GMV份额，并假设其从佣金和相关费用中获得%的收入。基于不断增长的数据量预测，AWS收入来自云市场增长。其他细分市场基于其平均3年增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，并从2027年的12.3%逐步下调，到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务和云计算市场将更加成熟。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Online stores<blockquote><tr><td>在线商店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Physical stores<blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>17.22<blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.19<blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></td> <td>16.23<blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.40<blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></td> <td>18.55<blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.38<blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>196.9%<blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-0.2%<blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-5.6%<blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Subscription services<blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>14.17<blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.21<blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.21<blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.67<blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.68<blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></td> <td>65.58<blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.6%<blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS<blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Other<blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>10.11<blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.09<blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.45<blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.27<blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.60<blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.48<blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>117.4%<blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.4%<blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>52.2%<blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total<blockquote><tr><td>总的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>232.9<blockquote><td>232.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.53<blockquote><td>280.53</td></blockquote></td> <td>386.07<blockquote><td>386.07</td></blockquote></td> <td>447.0<blockquote><td>447.0</td></blockquote></td> <td>545.9<blockquote><td>545.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>669.1<blockquote><td>669.1</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>总增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>30.9%<blockquote><td>30.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.5%<blockquote><td>20.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.6%<blockquote><td>37.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.8%<blockquote><td>15.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.1%<blockquote><td>22.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.6%<blockquote><td>22.6%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.<blockquote>基于12.7%的贴现率（公司的WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为36.9%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：卡文投资</blockquote> Verdict<blockquote>裁决</blockquote> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.<blockquote>总之，我们分析了该公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和AWS。虽然加速增长最终结束，但作为电子商务领域成熟且占主导地位的市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为转向电子商务，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比预计将继续上升，预计到2023年将达到22%。该公司的Prime会员为其提供了大约占美国人口一半的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和运输网络，亚马逊FBA在其在线市场上看到第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户有着密切的关系，管理层也不断致力于满足该细分市场不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预计2021年增长正常化，但我们认为其前景继续受到电子商务和云计算市场不断增长的提振，并将我们的增长率预测修正为2021年的15.8%，随后修正为2020年的22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为购买目标价格为$4,363.96.</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143120804","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.\nWhile growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.\nAWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.\nWe revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.\n\n4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nSince our previous coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.\nDespite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3 guidance of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.\nSource: Amazon\nE-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth\nAmazon's online store sales have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.\nAccording to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to reach 22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.\n\n\n\nGlobal E-Commerce Market ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Global Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\n\n* B = C x A\nSource: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments\nAmazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.\nSource: Backlinko\nIn addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently attract sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.\nSource: Marketing Charts\nIts market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer & consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel & accessories, books music & video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.\nSource: eMarketer\nAmong the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having purchased electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker units and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average price of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.\nAll in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln products excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.\nThus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.\n\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\nGrowth %\n16.2%\n20.9%\n17.3%\n11.5%\n32.4%\n2.8%\n8.1%\n10.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')\n91.43\n108.35\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n18.5%\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')\n5.0%\n4.5%\n4.1%\n4.2%\n4.6%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n\n\n\n* B = A x C\n*D = B x E\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThe Rise of Third-party Seller Services\nAnother major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.\nWith Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.\nSelling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately provides more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising share of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.\nSource: FourWeekMBA\nThe chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it enhances its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business delivered 1.9 bln packages in the US.\nSource: WebFX\nMoreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming opening of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it announced plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.\nSource: CNBC\nOverall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has free Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.\nSource: Statista\nWe forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which represents 60% of its total sales.\n\n\n\nThird-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nGlobal Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Third Party Market Share ('b')\n5.6%\n5.5%\n5.4%\n6.0%\n6.9%\n7.5%\n8.1%\n8.9%\n\n\nGrowth %\n21%\n-2%\n-2%\n11%\n16%\n9%\n9%\n9%\n\n\nThird-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')\n103\n130\n160\n200\n295\n353\n443\n553\n\n\nGrowth %\n26.2%\n23.1%\n25.0%\n47.5%\n19.8%\n25.3%\n25.0%\n\n\n% Of Revenues ('d')\n22.3%\n24.5%\n26.7%\n26.9%\n27.3%\n27.6%\n27.8%\n28.1%\n\n\nGrowth %\n9.9%\n9.0%\n0.6%\n1.5%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services revenues ('e')\n22.99\n31.88\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n38.7%\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\n\n*C = A x B\n*E = C x D\nSource: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments\nAWS Growth by Data Volume Growth\nAnother key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.\nThe rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nWe projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23% CAGR through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.\n* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently announced a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.\nSource: Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nAll in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.\n\n\n\nAWS Forecasts\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nAWS Market Share\n32.6%\n32.3%\n31.8%\n31.2%\n31.0%\n30.7%\n\n\nAWS Revenues ($ bln)\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nWhile AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.\nSource: Amazon\nAntimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk\nAmazon has been involved in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.\nWhereas in the European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.\nValuation\nThe company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nMore importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the acquisition of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nThe company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.\nTo value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.\n\n\n\nCompany\nEV/EBITDA\n\n\nAmazon\n28.57x\n\n\nAlibaba (BABA)\n21.14x\n\n\nMicrosoft\n25.89x\n\n\nGoogle\n22.46x\n\n\nAverage\n24.52x\n\n\n\nSource: SeekingAlpha\nThe revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.\n\n\n\nAmazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nOnline stores\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPhysical stores\n17.22\n17.19\n16.23\n17.40\n18.55\n19.38\n\n\nGrowth %\n196.9%\n-0.2%\n-5.6%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\nSubscription services\n14.17\n19.21\n25.21\n34.67\n47.68\n65.58\n\n\nGrowth %\n45.8%\n35.6%\n31.2%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n\n\nAWS\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\nOther\n10.11\n14.09\n21.45\n31.27\n45.60\n66.48\n\n\nGrowth %\n117.4%\n39.4%\n52.2%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n\n\nTotal\n232.9\n280.53\n386.07\n447.0\n545.9\n669.1\n\n\nTotal Growth %\n30.9%\n20.5%\n37.6%\n15.8%\n22.1%\n22.6%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nBased on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.\nSource: Khaveen Investments\nVerdict\nIn conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":880461977,"gmtCreate":1631072986199,"gmtModify":1631890459528,"author":{"id":"3570795646512728","authorId":"3570795646512728","name":"Wlonggy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e13852042b178595067783df9fc42cc1","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3570795646512728","authorIdStr":"3570795646512728"},"htmlText":"Like and comment please","listText":"Like and comment please","text":"Like and comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880461977","repostId":1143120804,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143120804","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631072080,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143120804?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 11:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143120804","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth ra","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li> <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li> <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li> <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年收入增长超出我们预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍有望从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用DCF分析修改了估值，从3,358.73美元获得了4,303.18美元的新目标价。</li></ul>4kodiak/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</blockquote> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.<blockquote>自我们上次报道以来，亚马逊公司(AMZN)的股价已上涨26%，超出了我们24.5%的收入增长预期，并在2020年底上涨了37.6%，其在线零售业务增长了40%，达到近2000亿美元，第三方服务800亿美元。在本次分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和AWS。</blockquote> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.<blockquote>尽管第二季度网上商店销售额增长疲软13%，第三季度同比指引中点疲软13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力。亚马逊已确立市场地位的在线零售。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到2023年，电子商务的份额将从2020年的18%达到22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、作为忠实客户的庞大Prime会员基础以及坚实的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，正如其与第三方卖家的电子商务市场的崛起所证明的那样。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，持续致力于增长并以不断增长的数据量为基础。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth<blockquote>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</blockquote> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.<blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，加速了向电子商务的采用。然而，尽管2021年第二季度在线商店增长同比放缓13%，而第一季度为41%，但我们相信该公司将继续受益于电子商务采用率不断上升的长期推动力。</blockquote> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.<blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向在线购买，电子商务销售额的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将反弹7.2%。因此，2021年电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%实现正常化增长，渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = C x A<blockquote>*B=C x A</blockquote> Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.<blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争优势。更具体地说，很难在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上赢得公司的支持。显然，该公司的Prime会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司具有强大的吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也推动消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Backlinko<blockquote>资料来源：Backlinko</blockquote> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>除了Prime会员之外，该公司还能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，自2017年以来新增卖家330万人，即每天3,718人。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已确立了自己作为市场主导者的地位，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于第二接近的竞争对手。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Marketing Charts<blockquote>资料来源：营销图表</blockquote> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>如下表所示，其在不同产品类别和市场中的市场领导地位相当广泛。例如，其消费品和消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务总销售额的50.2%，占零售总额的26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: eMarketer<blockquote>资料来源：eMarketer</blockquote> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.<blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌(GOOG)和苹果(AAPL)，并继续通过新一代产品和软件更新来开发该产品。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据Echo产品系列103美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为39.4亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.<blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的不断增长，我们预计这一产品广度将继续扩大，并通过产品多样性为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.<blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有成熟的客户群和忠诚的Prime会员生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛的市场领导地位和广泛的产品广度的庞大卖家基础，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店增长是基于我们对其市场份额的预期（基于全球电子商务销售额的5年平均值）为4.5%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>零售销售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>16.2%<blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.9%<blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.3%<blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11.5%<blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.4%<blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.8%<blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.0%<blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入('d')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>91.43<blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></td> <td>108.35<blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>18.5%<blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额('e')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.0%<blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.1%<blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.2%<blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.6%<blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = A x C<blockquote>*B=A x C</blockquote> *D = B x E<blockquote>*D=B x E</blockquote> Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The Rise of Third-party Seller Services<blockquote>第三方卖家服务的兴起</blockquote> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.<blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和运输业务，这已成为一条难以逾越的护城河，很少有其他公司拥有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要送货提供商合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供的计划使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单。</blockquote> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.<blockquote>通过亚马逊物流（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的运营中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金以及相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、货件跟踪和报告。</blockquote> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.<blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更大的灵活性和控制力、更强大的品牌影响力和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的比例不断上升，达到总销售额的62%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: FourWeekMBA<blockquote>资料来源：FourWeekMBA</blockquote> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.<blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和运输网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和UPS竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其交付网络以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国运送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: WebFX<blockquote>来源：WebFX</blockquote> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.<blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，即将于2021年在密苏里州开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输大型客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020年，该公司宣布了7个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州600,000平方英尺的设施、田纳西州855,000平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州625,000平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CNBC<blockquote>资料来源：CNBC</blockquote> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.<blockquote>总体而言，这些都是该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面的优势的因素之一。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数人或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，公司的计划扩张将继续增强其物流网络并保持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista<blockquote>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</blockquote> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.<blockquote>我们预测了该公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，亚马逊的第三方商品销售总额预计将在过去5年的平均增长率为9%。此外，我们还预测，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的27.3%增长1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的60%至75%之间，低于AWS的80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率37%由于与占总销售额60%的销售成本相关的高成本。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额('b')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.6%<blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.5%<blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.4%<blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.0%<blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.9%<blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.5%<blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.9%<blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21%<blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11%<blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></td> <td>16%<blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊商城）GMV('c')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>103<blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></td> <td>130<blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></td> <td>160<blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></td> <td>200<blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></td> <td>295<blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></td> <td>353<blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></td> <td>443<blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></td> <td>553<blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>26.2%<blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>23.1%<blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.5%<blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.8%<blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.3%<blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>% Of Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>佔收入百分比（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.3%<blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>24.5%<blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.7%<blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.9%<blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.3%<blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.8%<blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>28.1%<blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9.9%<blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9.0%<blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>0.6%<blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.5%<blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.99<blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.88<blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>38.7%<blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> *C = A x B<blockquote>*C=A × B</blockquote> *E = C x D<blockquote>*E=C x D</blockquote> Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth<blockquote>AWS按数据量增长增长</blockquote> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.<blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有Netflix(NFLX)、Verizon(VZ)、Capital One(COF)、麦当劳(MCD)等著名大客户。2020年AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，占据云基础设施市场31.8%的市场份额。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已发展成为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软(MSFT)和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.<blockquote>到2025年，全球数据量将增长23%，这支撑了云基础设施市场的快速增长，因为随着数据分析、5G和物联网的兴起，世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.<blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长基于到2025年数据量以23%的CAGR增长，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>*A=B x C资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.<blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS，AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，例如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，以构建基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用区，并计划再推出15个可用区来支持其云增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Canalys、Khaveen投资</blockquote> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.<blockquote>总而言之，我们基于市场份额预测假设来预测AWS的收入增长，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢削弱，但在利用AWS的稳固大客户关系的支持下仍保持其市场领先地位。根据到2023年30.7%的市场份额预测，我们预计AWS收入将增长至815亿美元。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>AWS Forecasts<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>AWS预测</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Market Share<blockquote><tr><td>AWS市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>32.6%<blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.3%<blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.8%<blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.0%<blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>30.7%<blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><tr><td>AWS收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.<blockquote>虽然AWS仅占其总收入的11%，但与其他公司部门的2.8%相比，其29%的高利润率使AWS在2020年占营业收入的59%，这凸显了AWS对其利润的重要性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk<blockquote>反垄断和数据隐私罚款风险</blockquote> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.<blockquote>民主党的报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家那里获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为40%。由于卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取额外费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，由众议院议员组成的两党小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司在一系列广泛的反垄断改革下对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.<blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊遭受了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临8.88亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反了欧盟的通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR允许罚款高达亚马逊收入的4%，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊2020年213亿美元收入的4.2%。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.<blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其利润率不断上升，因为由于其利润率更高的云业务的卓越增长，其净利润率也有所上升。AWS部门的营业利润率高达29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为2.8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.<blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有良好且强大的现金产生能力，过去5年的平均自由现金流利润率为3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购Whole Foods，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于利润率的上升，因为其利润更高的AWS业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.<blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其偿还债务的强大能力。2020年其净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着AWS的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去5年中从32倍稳步上升。</blockquote> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.<blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了DCF估值，因为该公司过去拥有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到的行业平均EV/EBITDA为27.64倍，如下表所示。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Company<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>公司</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>EV/EBITDA<blockquote><td>EV/EBITDA</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>28.57x<blockquote><td>28.57 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Alibaba (BABA)<blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（父亲）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21.14x<blockquote><td>21.14 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Microsoft<blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.89x<blockquote><td>25.89 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Google<blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.46x<blockquote><td>22.46 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Average<blockquote><tr><td>均值</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>24.52x<blockquote><td>24.52 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: SeekingAlpha<blockquote>来源：SeekingAlpha</blockquote> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.<blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS和其他的收入细分总结如下。网上商店预测源自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售额增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场中的第三方卖家GMV份额，并假设其从佣金和相关费用中获得%的收入。基于不断增长的数据量预测，AWS收入来自云市场增长。其他细分市场基于其平均3年增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，并从2027年的12.3%逐步下调，到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务和云计算市场将更加成熟。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Online stores<blockquote><tr><td>在线商店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Physical stores<blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>17.22<blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.19<blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></td> <td>16.23<blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.40<blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></td> <td>18.55<blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.38<blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>196.9%<blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-0.2%<blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-5.6%<blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Subscription services<blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>14.17<blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.21<blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.21<blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.67<blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.68<blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></td> <td>65.58<blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.6%<blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS<blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Other<blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>10.11<blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.09<blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.45<blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.27<blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.60<blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.48<blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>117.4%<blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.4%<blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>52.2%<blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total<blockquote><tr><td>总的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>232.9<blockquote><td>232.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.53<blockquote><td>280.53</td></blockquote></td> <td>386.07<blockquote><td>386.07</td></blockquote></td> <td>447.0<blockquote><td>447.0</td></blockquote></td> <td>545.9<blockquote><td>545.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>669.1<blockquote><td>669.1</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>总增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>30.9%<blockquote><td>30.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.5%<blockquote><td>20.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.6%<blockquote><td>37.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.8%<blockquote><td>15.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.1%<blockquote><td>22.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.6%<blockquote><td>22.6%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.<blockquote>基于12.7%的贴现率（公司的WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为36.9%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：卡文投资</blockquote> Verdict<blockquote>裁决</blockquote> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.<blockquote>总之，我们分析了该公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和AWS。虽然加速增长最终结束，但作为电子商务领域成熟且占主导地位的市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为转向电子商务，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比预计将继续上升，预计到2023年将达到22%。该公司的Prime会员为其提供了大约占美国人口一半的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和运输网络，亚马逊FBA在其在线市场上看到第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户有着密切的关系，管理层也不断致力于满足该细分市场不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预计2021年增长正常化，但我们认为其前景继续受到电子商务和云计算市场不断增长的提振，并将我们的增长率预测修正为2021年的15.8%，随后修正为2020年的22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为购买目标价格为$4,363.96.</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-09-08 11:34\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li> <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li> <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li> <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年收入增长超出我们预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍有望从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用DCF分析修改了估值，从3,358.73美元获得了4,303.18美元的新目标价。</li></ul>4kodiak/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</blockquote> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.<blockquote>自我们上次报道以来，亚马逊公司(AMZN)的股价已上涨26%，超出了我们24.5%的收入增长预期，并在2020年底上涨了37.6%，其在线零售业务增长了40%，达到近2000亿美元，第三方服务800亿美元。在本次分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和AWS。</blockquote> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.<blockquote>尽管第二季度网上商店销售额增长疲软13%，第三季度同比指引中点疲软13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力。亚马逊已确立市场地位的在线零售。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到2023年，电子商务的份额将从2020年的18%达到22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、作为忠实客户的庞大Prime会员基础以及坚实的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，正如其与第三方卖家的电子商务市场的崛起所证明的那样。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，持续致力于增长并以不断增长的数据量为基础。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth<blockquote>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</blockquote> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.<blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，加速了向电子商务的采用。然而，尽管2021年第二季度在线商店增长同比放缓13%，而第一季度为41%，但我们相信该公司将继续受益于电子商务采用率不断上升的长期推动力。</blockquote> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.<blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向在线购买，电子商务销售额的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将反弹7.2%。因此，2021年电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%实现正常化增长，渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = C x A<blockquote>*B=C x A</blockquote> Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.<blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争优势。更具体地说，很难在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上赢得公司的支持。显然，该公司的Prime会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司具有强大的吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也推动消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Backlinko<blockquote>资料来源：Backlinko</blockquote> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>除了Prime会员之外，该公司还能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，自2017年以来新增卖家330万人，即每天3,718人。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已确立了自己作为市场主导者的地位，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于第二接近的竞争对手。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Marketing Charts<blockquote>资料来源：营销图表</blockquote> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>如下表所示，其在不同产品类别和市场中的市场领导地位相当广泛。例如，其消费品和消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务总销售额的50.2%，占零售总额的26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: eMarketer<blockquote>资料来源：eMarketer</blockquote> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.<blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌(GOOG)和苹果(AAPL)，并继续通过新一代产品和软件更新来开发该产品。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据Echo产品系列103美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为39.4亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.<blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的不断增长，我们预计这一产品广度将继续扩大，并通过产品多样性为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.<blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有成熟的客户群和忠诚的Prime会员生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛的市场领导地位和广泛的产品广度的庞大卖家基础，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店增长是基于我们对其市场份额的预期（基于全球电子商务销售额的5年平均值）为4.5%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>零售销售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>16.2%<blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.9%<blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.3%<blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11.5%<blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.4%<blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.8%<blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.0%<blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入('d')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>91.43<blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></td> <td>108.35<blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>18.5%<blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额('e')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.0%<blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.1%<blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.2%<blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.6%<blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = A x C<blockquote>*B=A x C</blockquote> *D = B x E<blockquote>*D=B x E</blockquote> Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The Rise of Third-party Seller Services<blockquote>第三方卖家服务的兴起</blockquote> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.<blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和运输业务，这已成为一条难以逾越的护城河，很少有其他公司拥有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要送货提供商合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供的计划使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单。</blockquote> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.<blockquote>通过亚马逊物流（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的运营中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金以及相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、货件跟踪和报告。</blockquote> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.<blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更大的灵活性和控制力、更强大的品牌影响力和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的比例不断上升，达到总销售额的62%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: FourWeekMBA<blockquote>资料来源：FourWeekMBA</blockquote> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.<blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和运输网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和UPS竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其交付网络以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国运送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: WebFX<blockquote>来源：WebFX</blockquote> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.<blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，即将于2021年在密苏里州开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输大型客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020年，该公司宣布了7个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州600,000平方英尺的设施、田纳西州855,000平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州625,000平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CNBC<blockquote>资料来源：CNBC</blockquote> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.<blockquote>总体而言，这些都是该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面的优势的因素之一。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数人或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，公司的计划扩张将继续增强其物流网络并保持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista<blockquote>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</blockquote> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.<blockquote>我们预测了该公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，亚马逊的第三方商品销售总额预计将在过去5年的平均增长率为9%。此外，我们还预测，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的27.3%增长1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的60%至75%之间，低于AWS的80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率37%由于与占总销售额60%的销售成本相关的高成本。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额('b')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.6%<blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.5%<blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.4%<blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.0%<blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.9%<blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.5%<blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.9%<blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21%<blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11%<blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></td> <td>16%<blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊商城）GMV('c')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>103<blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></td> <td>130<blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></td> <td>160<blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></td> <td>200<blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></td> <td>295<blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></td> <td>353<blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></td> <td>443<blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></td> <td>553<blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>26.2%<blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>23.1%<blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.5%<blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.8%<blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.3%<blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>% Of Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>佔收入百分比（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.3%<blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>24.5%<blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.7%<blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.9%<blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.3%<blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.8%<blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>28.1%<blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9.9%<blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9.0%<blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>0.6%<blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.5%<blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.99<blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.88<blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>38.7%<blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> *C = A x B<blockquote>*C=A × B</blockquote> *E = C x D<blockquote>*E=C x D</blockquote> Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth<blockquote>AWS按数据量增长增长</blockquote> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.<blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有Netflix(NFLX)、Verizon(VZ)、Capital One(COF)、麦当劳(MCD)等著名大客户。2020年AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，占据云基础设施市场31.8%的市场份额。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已发展成为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软(MSFT)和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.<blockquote>到2025年，全球数据量将增长23%，这支撑了云基础设施市场的快速增长，因为随着数据分析、5G和物联网的兴起，世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.<blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长基于到2025年数据量以23%的CAGR增长，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>*A=B x C资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.<blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS，AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，例如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，以构建基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用区，并计划再推出15个可用区来支持其云增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Canalys、Khaveen投资</blockquote> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.<blockquote>总而言之，我们基于市场份额预测假设来预测AWS的收入增长，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢削弱，但在利用AWS的稳固大客户关系的支持下仍保持其市场领先地位。根据到2023年30.7%的市场份额预测，我们预计AWS收入将增长至815亿美元。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>AWS Forecasts<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>AWS预测</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Market Share<blockquote><tr><td>AWS市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>32.6%<blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.3%<blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.8%<blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.0%<blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>30.7%<blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><tr><td>AWS收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.<blockquote>虽然AWS仅占其总收入的11%，但与其他公司部门的2.8%相比，其29%的高利润率使AWS在2020年占营业收入的59%，这凸显了AWS对其利润的重要性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk<blockquote>反垄断和数据隐私罚款风险</blockquote> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.<blockquote>民主党的报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家那里获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为40%。由于卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取额外费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，由众议院议员组成的两党小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司在一系列广泛的反垄断改革下对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.<blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊遭受了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临8.88亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反了欧盟的通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR允许罚款高达亚马逊收入的4%，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊2020年213亿美元收入的4.2%。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.<blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其利润率不断上升，因为由于其利润率更高的云业务的卓越增长，其净利润率也有所上升。AWS部门的营业利润率高达29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为2.8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.<blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有良好且强大的现金产生能力，过去5年的平均自由现金流利润率为3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购Whole Foods，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于利润率的上升，因为其利润更高的AWS业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.<blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其偿还债务的强大能力。2020年其净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着AWS的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去5年中从32倍稳步上升。</blockquote> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.<blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了DCF估值，因为该公司过去拥有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到的行业平均EV/EBITDA为27.64倍，如下表所示。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Company<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>公司</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>EV/EBITDA<blockquote><td>EV/EBITDA</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>28.57x<blockquote><td>28.57 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Alibaba (BABA)<blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（父亲）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21.14x<blockquote><td>21.14 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Microsoft<blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.89x<blockquote><td>25.89 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Google<blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.46x<blockquote><td>22.46 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Average<blockquote><tr><td>均值</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>24.52x<blockquote><td>24.52 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: SeekingAlpha<blockquote>来源：SeekingAlpha</blockquote> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.<blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS和其他的收入细分总结如下。网上商店预测源自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售额增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场中的第三方卖家GMV份额，并假设其从佣金和相关费用中获得%的收入。基于不断增长的数据量预测，AWS收入来自云市场增长。其他细分市场基于其平均3年增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，并从2027年的12.3%逐步下调，到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务和云计算市场将更加成熟。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Online stores<blockquote><tr><td>在线商店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Physical stores<blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>17.22<blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.19<blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></td> <td>16.23<blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.40<blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></td> <td>18.55<blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.38<blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>196.9%<blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-0.2%<blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-5.6%<blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Subscription services<blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>14.17<blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.21<blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.21<blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.67<blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.68<blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></td> <td>65.58<blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.6%<blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS<blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Other<blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>10.11<blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.09<blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.45<blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.27<blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.60<blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.48<blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>117.4%<blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.4%<blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>52.2%<blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total<blockquote><tr><td>总的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>232.9<blockquote><td>232.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.53<blockquote><td>280.53</td></blockquote></td> <td>386.07<blockquote><td>386.07</td></blockquote></td> <td>447.0<blockquote><td>447.0</td></blockquote></td> <td>545.9<blockquote><td>545.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>669.1<blockquote><td>669.1</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>总增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>30.9%<blockquote><td>30.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.5%<blockquote><td>20.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.6%<blockquote><td>37.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.8%<blockquote><td>15.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.1%<blockquote><td>22.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.6%<blockquote><td>22.6%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.<blockquote>基于12.7%的贴现率（公司的WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为36.9%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：卡文投资</blockquote> Verdict<blockquote>裁决</blockquote> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.<blockquote>总之，我们分析了该公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和AWS。虽然加速增长最终结束，但作为电子商务领域成熟且占主导地位的市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为转向电子商务，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比预计将继续上升，预计到2023年将达到22%。该公司的Prime会员为其提供了大约占美国人口一半的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和运输网络，亚马逊FBA在其在线市场上看到第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户有着密切的关系，管理层也不断致力于满足该细分市场不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预计2021年增长正常化，但我们认为其前景继续受到电子商务和云计算市场不断增长的提振，并将我们的增长率预测修正为2021年的15.8%，随后修正为2020年的22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为购买目标价格为$4,363.96.</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143120804","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.\nWhile growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.\nAWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.\nWe revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.\n\n4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nSince our previous coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.\nDespite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3 guidance of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.\nSource: Amazon\nE-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth\nAmazon's online store sales have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.\nAccording to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to reach 22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.\n\n\n\nGlobal E-Commerce Market ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Global Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\n\n* B = C x A\nSource: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments\nAmazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.\nSource: Backlinko\nIn addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently attract sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.\nSource: Marketing Charts\nIts market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer & consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel & accessories, books music & video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.\nSource: eMarketer\nAmong the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having purchased electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker units and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average price of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.\nAll in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln products excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.\nThus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.\n\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\nGrowth %\n16.2%\n20.9%\n17.3%\n11.5%\n32.4%\n2.8%\n8.1%\n10.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')\n91.43\n108.35\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n18.5%\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')\n5.0%\n4.5%\n4.1%\n4.2%\n4.6%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n\n\n\n* B = A x C\n*D = B x E\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThe Rise of Third-party Seller Services\nAnother major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.\nWith Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.\nSelling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately provides more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising share of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.\nSource: FourWeekMBA\nThe chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it enhances its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business delivered 1.9 bln packages in the US.\nSource: WebFX\nMoreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming opening of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it announced plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.\nSource: CNBC\nOverall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has free Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.\nSource: Statista\nWe forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which represents 60% of its total sales.\n\n\n\nThird-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nGlobal Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Third Party Market Share ('b')\n5.6%\n5.5%\n5.4%\n6.0%\n6.9%\n7.5%\n8.1%\n8.9%\n\n\nGrowth %\n21%\n-2%\n-2%\n11%\n16%\n9%\n9%\n9%\n\n\nThird-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')\n103\n130\n160\n200\n295\n353\n443\n553\n\n\nGrowth %\n26.2%\n23.1%\n25.0%\n47.5%\n19.8%\n25.3%\n25.0%\n\n\n% Of Revenues ('d')\n22.3%\n24.5%\n26.7%\n26.9%\n27.3%\n27.6%\n27.8%\n28.1%\n\n\nGrowth %\n9.9%\n9.0%\n0.6%\n1.5%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services revenues ('e')\n22.99\n31.88\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n38.7%\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\n\n*C = A x B\n*E = C x D\nSource: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments\nAWS Growth by Data Volume Growth\nAnother key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.\nThe rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nWe projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23% CAGR through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.\n* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently announced a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.\nSource: Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nAll in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.\n\n\n\nAWS Forecasts\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nAWS Market Share\n32.6%\n32.3%\n31.8%\n31.2%\n31.0%\n30.7%\n\n\nAWS Revenues ($ bln)\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nWhile AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.\nSource: Amazon\nAntimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk\nAmazon has been involved in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.\nWhereas in the European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.\nValuation\nThe company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nMore importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the acquisition of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nThe company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.\nTo value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.\n\n\n\nCompany\nEV/EBITDA\n\n\nAmazon\n28.57x\n\n\nAlibaba (BABA)\n21.14x\n\n\nMicrosoft\n25.89x\n\n\nGoogle\n22.46x\n\n\nAverage\n24.52x\n\n\n\nSource: SeekingAlpha\nThe revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.\n\n\n\nAmazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nOnline stores\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPhysical stores\n17.22\n17.19\n16.23\n17.40\n18.55\n19.38\n\n\nGrowth %\n196.9%\n-0.2%\n-5.6%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\nSubscription services\n14.17\n19.21\n25.21\n34.67\n47.68\n65.58\n\n\nGrowth %\n45.8%\n35.6%\n31.2%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n\n\nAWS\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\nOther\n10.11\n14.09\n21.45\n31.27\n45.60\n66.48\n\n\nGrowth %\n117.4%\n39.4%\n52.2%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n\n\nTotal\n232.9\n280.53\n386.07\n447.0\n545.9\n669.1\n\n\nTotal Growth %\n30.9%\n20.5%\n37.6%\n15.8%\n22.1%\n22.6%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nBased on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.\nSource: Khaveen Investments\nVerdict\nIn conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5789521,"gmtCreate":1631073066281,"gmtModify":1631890459549,"authorId":3568154809054444,"author":{"id":3568154809054444,"idStr":"3568154809054444","authorId":3568154809054444,"name":"HappyCloud","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39dc69f5461d4fc413d626e66aa91a90","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":880461977,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"},{"id":5789512,"gmtCreate":1631073042385,"gmtModify":1631890459539,"authorId":3581721664535920,"author":{"id":3581721664535920,"idStr":"3581721664535920","authorId":3581721664535920,"name":"mooooon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11766fedd0c607405266b23e921380e7","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":880461977,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"},{"id":5789511,"gmtCreate":1631073041502,"gmtModify":1631890459524,"authorId":3586392338558856,"author":{"id":3586392338558856,"idStr":"3586392338558856","authorId":3586392338558856,"name":"Jokhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d189ae3ec01747be0bd951c14c32cb94","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":880461977,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[Smile]","text":"[Smile]","html":"[Smile]"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":880463713,"gmtCreate":1631072973432,"gmtModify":1631888912857,"author":{"id":"3572214398550610","authorId":"3572214398550610","name":"aliciatng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4b23ee891a1061c7907495a9c7da890","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572214398550610","authorIdStr":"3572214398550610"},"htmlText":"Okay","listText":"Okay","text":"Okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880463713","repostId":1143120804,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143120804","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631072080,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143120804?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 11:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143120804","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth ra","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li> <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li> <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li> <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年收入增长超出我们预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍有望从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用DCF分析修改了估值，从3,358.73美元获得了4,303.18美元的新目标价。</li></ul>4kodiak/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</blockquote> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.<blockquote>自我们上次报道以来，亚马逊公司(AMZN)的股价已上涨26%，超出了我们24.5%的收入增长预期，并在2020年底上涨了37.6%，其在线零售业务增长了40%，达到近2000亿美元，第三方服务800亿美元。在本次分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和AWS。</blockquote> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.<blockquote>尽管第二季度网上商店销售额增长疲软13%，第三季度同比指引中点疲软13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力。亚马逊已确立市场地位的在线零售。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到2023年，电子商务的份额将从2020年的18%达到22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、作为忠实客户的庞大Prime会员基础以及坚实的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，正如其与第三方卖家的电子商务市场的崛起所证明的那样。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，持续致力于增长并以不断增长的数据量为基础。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth<blockquote>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</blockquote> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.<blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，加速了向电子商务的采用。然而，尽管2021年第二季度在线商店增长同比放缓13%，而第一季度为41%，但我们相信该公司将继续受益于电子商务采用率不断上升的长期推动力。</blockquote> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.<blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向在线购买，电子商务销售额的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将反弹7.2%。因此，2021年电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%实现正常化增长，渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = C x A<blockquote>*B=C x A</blockquote> Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.<blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争优势。更具体地说，很难在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上赢得公司的支持。显然，该公司的Prime会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司具有强大的吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也推动消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Backlinko<blockquote>资料来源：Backlinko</blockquote> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>除了Prime会员之外，该公司还能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，自2017年以来新增卖家330万人，即每天3,718人。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已确立了自己作为市场主导者的地位，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于第二接近的竞争对手。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Marketing Charts<blockquote>资料来源：营销图表</blockquote> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>如下表所示，其在不同产品类别和市场中的市场领导地位相当广泛。例如，其消费品和消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务总销售额的50.2%，占零售总额的26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: eMarketer<blockquote>资料来源：eMarketer</blockquote> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.<blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌(GOOG)和苹果(AAPL)，并继续通过新一代产品和软件更新来开发该产品。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据Echo产品系列103美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为39.4亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.<blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的不断增长，我们预计这一产品广度将继续扩大，并通过产品多样性为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.<blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有成熟的客户群和忠诚的Prime会员生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛的市场领导地位和广泛的产品广度的庞大卖家基础，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店增长是基于我们对其市场份额的预期（基于全球电子商务销售额的5年平均值）为4.5%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>零售销售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>16.2%<blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.9%<blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.3%<blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11.5%<blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.4%<blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.8%<blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.0%<blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入('d')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>91.43<blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></td> <td>108.35<blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>18.5%<blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额('e')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.0%<blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.1%<blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.2%<blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.6%<blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = A x C<blockquote>*B=A x C</blockquote> *D = B x E<blockquote>*D=B x E</blockquote> Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The Rise of Third-party Seller Services<blockquote>第三方卖家服务的兴起</blockquote> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.<blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和运输业务，这已成为一条难以逾越的护城河，很少有其他公司拥有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要送货提供商合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供的计划使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单。</blockquote> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.<blockquote>通过亚马逊物流（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的运营中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金以及相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、货件跟踪和报告。</blockquote> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.<blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更大的灵活性和控制力、更强大的品牌影响力和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的比例不断上升，达到总销售额的62%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: FourWeekMBA<blockquote>资料来源：FourWeekMBA</blockquote> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.<blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和运输网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和UPS竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其交付网络以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国运送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: WebFX<blockquote>来源：WebFX</blockquote> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.<blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，即将于2021年在密苏里州开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输大型客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020年，该公司宣布了7个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州600,000平方英尺的设施、田纳西州855,000平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州625,000平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CNBC<blockquote>资料来源：CNBC</blockquote> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.<blockquote>总体而言，这些都是该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面的优势的因素之一。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数人或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，公司的计划扩张将继续增强其物流网络并保持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista<blockquote>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</blockquote> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.<blockquote>我们预测了该公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，亚马逊的第三方商品销售总额预计将在过去5年的平均增长率为9%。此外，我们还预测，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的27.3%增长1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的60%至75%之间，低于AWS的80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率37%由于与占总销售额60%的销售成本相关的高成本。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额('b')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.6%<blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.5%<blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.4%<blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.0%<blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.9%<blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.5%<blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.9%<blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21%<blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11%<blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></td> <td>16%<blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊商城）GMV('c')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>103<blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></td> <td>130<blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></td> <td>160<blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></td> <td>200<blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></td> <td>295<blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></td> <td>353<blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></td> <td>443<blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></td> <td>553<blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>26.2%<blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>23.1%<blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.5%<blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.8%<blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.3%<blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>% Of Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>佔收入百分比（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.3%<blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>24.5%<blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.7%<blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.9%<blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.3%<blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.8%<blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>28.1%<blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9.9%<blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9.0%<blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>0.6%<blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.5%<blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.99<blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.88<blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>38.7%<blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> *C = A x B<blockquote>*C=A × B</blockquote> *E = C x D<blockquote>*E=C x D</blockquote> Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth<blockquote>AWS按数据量增长增长</blockquote> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.<blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有Netflix(NFLX)、Verizon(VZ)、Capital One(COF)、麦当劳(MCD)等著名大客户。2020年AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，占据云基础设施市场31.8%的市场份额。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已发展成为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软(MSFT)和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.<blockquote>到2025年，全球数据量将增长23%，这支撑了云基础设施市场的快速增长，因为随着数据分析、5G和物联网的兴起，世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.<blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长基于到2025年数据量以23%的CAGR增长，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>*A=B x C资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.<blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS，AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，例如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，以构建基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用区，并计划再推出15个可用区来支持其云增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Canalys、Khaveen投资</blockquote> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.<blockquote>总而言之，我们基于市场份额预测假设来预测AWS的收入增长，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢削弱，但在利用AWS的稳固大客户关系的支持下仍保持其市场领先地位。根据到2023年30.7%的市场份额预测，我们预计AWS收入将增长至815亿美元。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>AWS Forecasts<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>AWS预测</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Market Share<blockquote><tr><td>AWS市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>32.6%<blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.3%<blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.8%<blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.0%<blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>30.7%<blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><tr><td>AWS收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.<blockquote>虽然AWS仅占其总收入的11%，但与其他公司部门的2.8%相比，其29%的高利润率使AWS在2020年占营业收入的59%，这凸显了AWS对其利润的重要性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk<blockquote>反垄断和数据隐私罚款风险</blockquote> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.<blockquote>民主党的报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家那里获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为40%。由于卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取额外费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，由众议院议员组成的两党小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司在一系列广泛的反垄断改革下对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.<blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊遭受了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临8.88亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反了欧盟的通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR允许罚款高达亚马逊收入的4%，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊2020年213亿美元收入的4.2%。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.<blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其利润率不断上升，因为由于其利润率更高的云业务的卓越增长，其净利润率也有所上升。AWS部门的营业利润率高达29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为2.8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.<blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有良好且强大的现金产生能力，过去5年的平均自由现金流利润率为3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购Whole Foods，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于利润率的上升，因为其利润更高的AWS业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.<blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其偿还债务的强大能力。2020年其净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着AWS的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去5年中从32倍稳步上升。</blockquote> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.<blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了DCF估值，因为该公司过去拥有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到的行业平均EV/EBITDA为27.64倍，如下表所示。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Company<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>公司</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>EV/EBITDA<blockquote><td>EV/EBITDA</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>28.57x<blockquote><td>28.57 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Alibaba (BABA)<blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（父亲）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21.14x<blockquote><td>21.14 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Microsoft<blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.89x<blockquote><td>25.89 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Google<blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.46x<blockquote><td>22.46 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Average<blockquote><tr><td>均值</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>24.52x<blockquote><td>24.52 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: SeekingAlpha<blockquote>来源：SeekingAlpha</blockquote> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.<blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS和其他的收入细分总结如下。网上商店预测源自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售额增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场中的第三方卖家GMV份额，并假设其从佣金和相关费用中获得%的收入。基于不断增长的数据量预测，AWS收入来自云市场增长。其他细分市场基于其平均3年增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，并从2027年的12.3%逐步下调，到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务和云计算市场将更加成熟。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Online stores<blockquote><tr><td>在线商店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Physical stores<blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>17.22<blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.19<blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></td> <td>16.23<blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.40<blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></td> <td>18.55<blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.38<blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>196.9%<blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-0.2%<blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-5.6%<blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Subscription services<blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>14.17<blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.21<blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.21<blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.67<blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.68<blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></td> <td>65.58<blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.6%<blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS<blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Other<blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>10.11<blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.09<blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.45<blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.27<blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.60<blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.48<blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>117.4%<blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.4%<blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>52.2%<blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total<blockquote><tr><td>总的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>232.9<blockquote><td>232.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.53<blockquote><td>280.53</td></blockquote></td> <td>386.07<blockquote><td>386.07</td></blockquote></td> <td>447.0<blockquote><td>447.0</td></blockquote></td> <td>545.9<blockquote><td>545.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>669.1<blockquote><td>669.1</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>总增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>30.9%<blockquote><td>30.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.5%<blockquote><td>20.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.6%<blockquote><td>37.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.8%<blockquote><td>15.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.1%<blockquote><td>22.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.6%<blockquote><td>22.6%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.<blockquote>基于12.7%的贴现率（公司的WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为36.9%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：卡文投资</blockquote> Verdict<blockquote>裁决</blockquote> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.<blockquote>总之，我们分析了该公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和AWS。虽然加速增长最终结束，但作为电子商务领域成熟且占主导地位的市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为转向电子商务，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比预计将继续上升，预计到2023年将达到22%。该公司的Prime会员为其提供了大约占美国人口一半的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和运输网络，亚马逊FBA在其在线市场上看到第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户有着密切的关系，管理层也不断致力于满足该细分市场不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预计2021年增长正常化，但我们认为其前景继续受到电子商务和云计算市场不断增长的提振，并将我们的增长率预测修正为2021年的15.8%，随后修正为2020年的22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为购买目标价格为$4,363.96.</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-09-08 11:34\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li> <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li> <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li> <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年收入增长超出我们预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍有望从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用DCF分析修改了估值，从3,358.73美元获得了4,303.18美元的新目标价。</li></ul>4kodiak/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</blockquote> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.<blockquote>自我们上次报道以来，亚马逊公司(AMZN)的股价已上涨26%，超出了我们24.5%的收入增长预期，并在2020年底上涨了37.6%，其在线零售业务增长了40%，达到近2000亿美元，第三方服务800亿美元。在本次分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和AWS。</blockquote> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.<blockquote>尽管第二季度网上商店销售额增长疲软13%，第三季度同比指引中点疲软13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力。亚马逊已确立市场地位的在线零售。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到2023年，电子商务的份额将从2020年的18%达到22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、作为忠实客户的庞大Prime会员基础以及坚实的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，正如其与第三方卖家的电子商务市场的崛起所证明的那样。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，持续致力于增长并以不断增长的数据量为基础。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth<blockquote>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</blockquote> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.<blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，加速了向电子商务的采用。然而，尽管2021年第二季度在线商店增长同比放缓13%，而第一季度为41%，但我们相信该公司将继续受益于电子商务采用率不断上升的长期推动力。</blockquote> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.<blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向在线购买，电子商务销售额的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将反弹7.2%。因此，2021年电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%实现正常化增长，渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = C x A<blockquote>*B=C x A</blockquote> Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.<blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争优势。更具体地说，很难在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上赢得公司的支持。显然，该公司的Prime会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司具有强大的吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也推动消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Backlinko<blockquote>资料来源：Backlinko</blockquote> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>除了Prime会员之外，该公司还能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，自2017年以来新增卖家330万人，即每天3,718人。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已确立了自己作为市场主导者的地位，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于第二接近的竞争对手。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Marketing Charts<blockquote>资料来源：营销图表</blockquote> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.<blockquote>如下表所示，其在不同产品类别和市场中的市场领导地位相当广泛。例如，其消费品和消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务总销售额的50.2%，占零售总额的26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: eMarketer<blockquote>资料来源：eMarketer</blockquote> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.<blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌(GOOG)和苹果(AAPL)，并继续通过新一代产品和软件更新来开发该产品。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据Echo产品系列103美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为39.4亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.<blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的不断增长，我们预计这一产品广度将继续扩大，并通过产品多样性为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.<blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有成熟的客户群和忠诚的Prime会员生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛的市场领导地位和广泛的产品广度的庞大卖家基础，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店增长是基于我们对其市场份额的预期（基于全球电子商务销售额的5年平均值）为4.5%。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>零售销售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21,453<blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></td> <td>22,904<blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,560<blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></td> <td>24,780<blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></td> <td>23,778<blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></td> <td>25,490<blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></td> <td>27,172<blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></td> <td>28,395<blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>2.6%<blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.8%<blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.9%<blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.2%<blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-4.0%<blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penetration Rate ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>渗透率（“c”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10%<blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12%<blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14%<blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></td> <td>18%<blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19%<blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20%<blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22%<blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>16.2%<blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.9%<blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.3%<blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11.5%<blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.4%<blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>2.8%<blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.0%<blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入('d')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>91.43<blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></td> <td>108.35<blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>18.5%<blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额('e')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.0%<blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.1%<blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.2%<blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.6%<blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.5%<blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> * B = A x C<blockquote>*B=A x C</blockquote> *D = B x E<blockquote>*D=B x E</blockquote> Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The Rise of Third-party Seller Services<blockquote>第三方卖家服务的兴起</blockquote> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.<blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和运输业务，这已成为一条难以逾越的护城河，很少有其他公司拥有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要送货提供商合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供的计划使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单。</blockquote> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.<blockquote>通过亚马逊物流（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的运营中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金以及相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、货件跟踪和报告。</blockquote> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.<blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更大的灵活性和控制力、更强大的品牌影响力和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的比例不断上升，达到总销售额的62%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: FourWeekMBA<blockquote>资料来源：FourWeekMBA</blockquote> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.<blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和运输网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和UPS竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其交付网络以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国运送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: WebFX<blockquote>来源：WebFX</blockquote> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.<blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，即将于2021年在密苏里州开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输大型客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020年，该公司宣布了7个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州600,000平方英尺的设施、田纳西州855,000平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州625,000平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: CNBC<blockquote>资料来源：CNBC</blockquote> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.<blockquote>总体而言，这些都是该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面的优势的因素之一。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数人或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，公司的计划扩张将继续增强其物流网络并保持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista<blockquote>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</blockquote> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.<blockquote>我们预测了该公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，亚马逊的第三方商品销售总额预计将在过去5年的平均增长率为9%。此外，我们还预测，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的27.3%增长1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的60%至75%之间，低于AWS的80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率37%由于与占总销售额60%的销售成本相关的高成本。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2016<blockquote><td>2016</td></blockquote></td> <td>2017<blockquote><td>2017</td></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')<blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>1,845<blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,382<blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></td> <td>2,982<blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></td> <td>3,354<blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,280<blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></td> <td>4,716<blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></td> <td>5,434<blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></td> <td>6,247<blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>19.2%<blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.1%<blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.2%<blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>12.5%<blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>10.2%<blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额('b')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>5.6%<blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.5%<blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>5.4%<blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.0%<blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.9%<blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.5%<blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.1%<blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>8.9%<blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21%<blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-2%<blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>11%<blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></td> <td>16%<blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9%<blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')<blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊商城）GMV('c')</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>103<blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></td> <td>130<blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></td> <td>160<blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></td> <td>200<blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></td> <td>295<blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></td> <td>353<blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></td> <td>443<blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></td> <td>553<blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>26.2%<blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>23.1%<blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.5%<blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.8%<blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.3%<blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.0%<blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>% Of Revenues ('d')<blockquote><tr><td>佔收入百分比（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.3%<blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>24.5%<blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.7%<blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.9%<blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.3%<blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.6%<blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>27.8%<blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>28.1%<blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>9.9%<blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>9.0%<blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>0.6%<blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.5%<blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>1.0%<blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.99<blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.88<blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>38.7%<blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> *C = A x B<blockquote>*C=A × B</blockquote> *E = C x D<blockquote>*E=C x D</blockquote> Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth<blockquote>AWS按数据量增长增长</blockquote> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.<blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有Netflix(NFLX)、Verizon(VZ)、Capital One(COF)、麦当劳(MCD)等著名大客户。2020年AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，占据云基础设施市场31.8%的市场份额。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已发展成为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软(MSFT)和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.<blockquote>到2025年，全球数据量将增长23%，这支撑了云基础设施市场的快速增长，因为随着数据分析、5G和物联网的兴起，世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</blockquote> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.<blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长基于到2025年数据量以23%的CAGR增长，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>*A=B x C资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.<blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS，AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，例如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，以构建基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用区，并计划再推出15个可用区来支持其云增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：Canalys、Khaveen投资</blockquote> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.<blockquote>总而言之，我们基于市场份额预测假设来预测AWS的收入增长，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢削弱，但在利用AWS的稳固大客户关系的支持下仍保持其市场领先地位。根据到2023年30.7%的市场份额预测，我们预计AWS收入将增长至815亿美元。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>AWS Forecasts<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>AWS预测</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Market Share<blockquote><tr><td>AWS市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>32.6%<blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>32.3%<blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.8%<blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.0%<blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>30.7%<blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)<blockquote><tr><td>AWS收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</blockquote> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.<blockquote>虽然AWS仅占其总收入的11%，但与其他公司部门的2.8%相比，其29%的高利润率使AWS在2020年占营业收入的59%，这凸显了AWS对其利润的重要性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon<blockquote>来源：亚马逊</blockquote> Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk<blockquote>反垄断和数据隐私罚款风险</blockquote> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.<blockquote>民主党的报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家那里获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为40%。由于卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取额外费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，由众议院议员组成的两党小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司在一系列广泛的反垄断改革下对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.<blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊遭受了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临8.88亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反了欧盟的通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR允许罚款高达亚马逊收入的4%，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊2020年213亿美元收入的4.2%。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.<blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其利润率不断上升，因为由于其利润率更高的云业务的卓越增长，其净利润率也有所上升。AWS部门的营业利润率高达29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为2.8%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.<blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有良好且强大的现金产生能力，过去5年的平均自由现金流利润率为3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购Whole Foods，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于利润率的上升，因为其利润更高的AWS业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.<blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其偿还债务的强大能力。2020年其净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着AWS的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去5年中从32倍稳步上升。</blockquote> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.<blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了DCF估值，因为该公司过去拥有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到的行业平均EV/EBITDA为27.64倍，如下表所示。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Company<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>公司</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>EV/EBITDA<blockquote><td>EV/EBITDA</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amazon<blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>28.57x<blockquote><td>28.57 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Alibaba (BABA)<blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（父亲）</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>21.14x<blockquote><td>21.14 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Microsoft<blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.89x<blockquote><td>25.89 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Google<blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>22.46x<blockquote><td>22.46 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Average<blockquote><tr><td>均值</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>24.52x<blockquote><td>24.52 x</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: SeekingAlpha<blockquote>来源：SeekingAlpha</blockquote> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.<blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS和其他的收入细分总结如下。网上商店预测源自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售额增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场中的第三方卖家GMV份额，并假设其从佣金和相关费用中获得%的收入。基于不断增长的数据量预测，AWS收入来自云市场增长。其他细分市场基于其平均3年增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，并从2027年的12.3%逐步下调，到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务和云计算市场将更加成熟。</blockquote> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)<blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></td> <td>2018<blockquote><td>2018</td></blockquote></td> <td>2019<blockquote><td>2019</td></blockquote></td> <td>2020<blockquote><td>2020</td></blockquote></td> <td>2021F<blockquote><td>2021F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2022F<blockquote><td>2022F</td></blockquote></td> <td>2023F<blockquote><td>2023F</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Online stores<blockquote><tr><td>在线商店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>122.99<blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></td> <td>141.25<blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>197.35<blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></td> <td>211.74<blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></td> <td>244.02<blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.50<blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>13.5%<blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.8%<blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.7%<blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.3%<blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.2%<blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.0%<blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Physical stores<blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>17.22<blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.19<blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></td> <td>16.23<blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></td> <td>17.40<blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></td> <td>18.55<blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.38<blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>196.9%<blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-0.2%<blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>-5.6%<blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>7.20%<blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></td> <td>6.60%<blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></td> <td>4.50%<blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Retail third-party seller services<blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>42.75<blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></td> <td>53.76<blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></td> <td>80.46<blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></td> <td>97.37<blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>123.25<blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></td> <td>155.61<blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>34.1%<blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.8%<blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>49.7%<blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.0%<blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.6%<blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>26.3%<blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Subscription services<blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>14.17<blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></td> <td>19.21<blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>25.21<blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></td> <td>34.67<blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></td> <td>47.68<blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></td> <td>65.58<blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.6%<blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.2%<blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.5%<blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>AWS<blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>25.66<blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></td> <td>35.03<blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.37<blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></td> <td>54.58<blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.81<blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></td> <td>81.52<blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>47.0%<blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></td> <td>36.5%<blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>29.5%<blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.3%<blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.4%<blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.0%<blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Other<blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>10.11<blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></td> <td>14.09<blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></td> <td>21.45<blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></td> <td>31.27<blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.60<blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></td> <td>66.48<blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>117.4%<blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>39.4%<blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></td> <td>52.2%<blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>45.8%<blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total<blockquote><tr><td>总的</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>232.9<blockquote><td>232.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>280.53<blockquote><td>280.53</td></blockquote></td> <td>386.07<blockquote><td>386.07</td></blockquote></td> <td>447.0<blockquote><td>447.0</td></blockquote></td> <td>545.9<blockquote><td>545.9</td></blockquote></td> <td>669.1<blockquote><td>669.1</td></blockquote></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Growth %<blockquote><tr><td>总增长%</td></tr></blockquote></td> <td>30.9%<blockquote><td>30.9%</td></blockquote></td> <td>20.5%<blockquote><td>20.5%</td></blockquote></td> <td>37.6%<blockquote><td>37.6%</td></blockquote></td> <td>15.8%<blockquote><td>15.8%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.1%<blockquote><td>22.1%</td></blockquote></td> <td>22.6%<blockquote><td>22.6%</td></blockquote></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</blockquote> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.<blockquote>基于12.7%的贴现率（公司的WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为36.9%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Khaveen Investments<blockquote>资料来源：卡文投资</blockquote> Verdict<blockquote>裁决</blockquote> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.<blockquote>总之，我们分析了该公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和AWS。虽然加速增长最终结束，但作为电子商务领域成熟且占主导地位的市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为转向电子商务，电子商务销售额占零售总额的百分比预计将继续上升，预计到2023年将达到22%。该公司的Prime会员为其提供了大约占美国人口一半的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和运输网络，亚马逊FBA在其在线市场上看到第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户有着密切的关系，管理层也不断致力于满足该细分市场不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预计2021年增长正常化，但我们认为其前景继续受到电子商务和云计算市场不断增长的提振，并将我们的增长率预测修正为2021年的15.8%，随后修正为2020年的22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为购买目标价格为$4,363.96.</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143120804","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.\nWhile growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.\nAWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.\nWe revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.\n\n4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nSince our previous coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.\nDespite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3 guidance of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.\nSource: Amazon\nE-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth\nAmazon's online store sales have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.\nAccording to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to reach 22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.\n\n\n\nGlobal E-Commerce Market ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Global Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\n\n* B = C x A\nSource: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments\nAmazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.\nSource: Backlinko\nIn addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently attract sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.\nSource: Marketing Charts\nIts market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer & consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel & accessories, books music & video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.\nSource: eMarketer\nAmong the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having purchased electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker units and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average price of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.\nAll in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln products excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.\nThus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.\n\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\nGrowth %\n16.2%\n20.9%\n17.3%\n11.5%\n32.4%\n2.8%\n8.1%\n10.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')\n91.43\n108.35\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n18.5%\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')\n5.0%\n4.5%\n4.1%\n4.2%\n4.6%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n\n\n\n* B = A x C\n*D = B x E\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThe Rise of Third-party Seller Services\nAnother major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.\nWith Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.\nSelling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately provides more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising share of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.\nSource: FourWeekMBA\nThe chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it enhances its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business delivered 1.9 bln packages in the US.\nSource: WebFX\nMoreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming opening of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it announced plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.\nSource: CNBC\nOverall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has free Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.\nSource: Statista\nWe forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which represents 60% of its total sales.\n\n\n\nThird-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nGlobal Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Third Party Market Share ('b')\n5.6%\n5.5%\n5.4%\n6.0%\n6.9%\n7.5%\n8.1%\n8.9%\n\n\nGrowth %\n21%\n-2%\n-2%\n11%\n16%\n9%\n9%\n9%\n\n\nThird-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')\n103\n130\n160\n200\n295\n353\n443\n553\n\n\nGrowth %\n26.2%\n23.1%\n25.0%\n47.5%\n19.8%\n25.3%\n25.0%\n\n\n% Of Revenues ('d')\n22.3%\n24.5%\n26.7%\n26.9%\n27.3%\n27.6%\n27.8%\n28.1%\n\n\nGrowth %\n9.9%\n9.0%\n0.6%\n1.5%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services revenues ('e')\n22.99\n31.88\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n38.7%\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\n\n*C = A x B\n*E = C x D\nSource: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments\nAWS Growth by Data Volume Growth\nAnother key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.\nThe rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nWe projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23% CAGR through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.\n* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently announced a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.\nSource: Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nAll in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.\n\n\n\nAWS Forecasts\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nAWS Market Share\n32.6%\n32.3%\n31.8%\n31.2%\n31.0%\n30.7%\n\n\nAWS Revenues ($ bln)\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nWhile AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.\nSource: Amazon\nAntimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk\nAmazon has been involved in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.\nWhereas in the European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.\nValuation\nThe company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nMore importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the acquisition of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nThe company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.\nTo value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.\n\n\n\nCompany\nEV/EBITDA\n\n\nAmazon\n28.57x\n\n\nAlibaba (BABA)\n21.14x\n\n\nMicrosoft\n25.89x\n\n\nGoogle\n22.46x\n\n\nAverage\n24.52x\n\n\n\nSource: SeekingAlpha\nThe revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.\n\n\n\nAmazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nOnline stores\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPhysical stores\n17.22\n17.19\n16.23\n17.40\n18.55\n19.38\n\n\nGrowth %\n196.9%\n-0.2%\n-5.6%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\nSubscription services\n14.17\n19.21\n25.21\n34.67\n47.68\n65.58\n\n\nGrowth %\n45.8%\n35.6%\n31.2%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n\n\nAWS\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\nOther\n10.11\n14.09\n21.45\n31.27\n45.60\n66.48\n\n\nGrowth %\n117.4%\n39.4%\n52.2%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n\n\nTotal\n232.9\n280.53\n386.07\n447.0\n545.9\n669.1\n\n\nTotal Growth %\n30.9%\n20.5%\n37.6%\n15.8%\n22.1%\n22.6%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nBased on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.\nSource: Khaveen Investments\nVerdict\nIn conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":127,"commentSize":30,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}