Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

1,899
347
收藏

Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year

Barron's2021-08-01

“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of ...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

1,899

glorify
·2021-08-02
Shares is always time of up & it will take a Breath after stock rising at the peak. It is healthy to have correction & create IOpportunity to buy the dip. It is also good to be cautious to re enter the right time if the shares price is undervalue.
回复
4
举报
收起
- oddox:
  how to know the right time to buy "the dip"?
  2021-08-02
  回复
  举报
keaty
·2021-08-02
Having gone higher.... , By the law of nature, at some point it must come lower.
回复
2
举报
ming22
·2021-08-02
Good to know that..
回复
1
举报
henry0leu
·2021-08-02
Fearful or otherwise?
回复
1
举报
Tailwind
·2021-08-02
Great, time to collect good stocks
回复
2
举报
收起
- KeatWei:
  👍🏼
  2021-08-02
  回复
  举报
LHJarsenal
·2021-08-02
Like n comment.
回复
3
举报
收起
- PYEO:
  Like please.
  2021-08-02
  回复
  举报
- CWL711:
  Ok
  2021-08-02
  回复
  举报
hlw8888
·2021-08-02
beware or buy and hold the good stocks??? [思考]
回复
6
举报
hlw8888
·2021-08-02
beware or buy and hold the good stocks??? [思考]
回复
4
举报
NRN
·2021-08-02
Be greedy when others are fearful
回复
4
举报
CL777
·2021-08-02
More volatility ahead?
回复
9
举报
收起
- LeonardKSW:
  wow
  2021-08-02
  回复
  举报
- Felicialim:
  It appears so
  2021-08-02
  回复
  举报
- CL777:
  Yup
  2021-08-02
  回复
  举报
查看更多 2 条评论
Monching
·2021-08-02
Is it because of the ghost month?
回复
4
举报
收起
- 手可摘棉花:
  [Happy]
  2021-08-02
  回复
  举报
JS64
·2021-08-02
Zzz
回复
1
举报
267c35e8
·2021-08-02
Hold with faith
回复
2
举报
CherylLeeYX
·2021-08-02
wow
回复
3
举报
收起
- 21900VAHP:
  Done
  2021-08-02
  回复
  举报
NgKenny
·2021-08-02
Ohhh
回复
6
举报
MrMrsBean
·2021-08-02
Please like and comment. Thanks.
回复
8
举报
收起
- JJQ:
  Done
  2021-08-02
  回复
  举报
- MrMrsBean:
  Thanks
  2021-08-02
  回复
  举报
- Kinokinok:
  ok
  2021-08-02
  回复
  举报
查看更多 1 条评论
诗迷
·2021-08-02
Like and comment
回复
8
举报
收起
- JS64:
  Ok
  2021-08-02
  回复
  举报
- 267c35e8:
  vk
  2021-08-02
  回复
  举报
- Kinokinok:
  ok
  2021-08-02
  回复
  举报
查看更多 1 条评论
JustinAQX
·2021-08-02
Threading on thin ice! [Sweats]
回复
8
举报
收起
- willnlol:
  oooh
  2021-08-03
  回复
  举报
- willnlol:
  ooh
  2021-08-04
  回复
  举报
- willnlol:
  😆
  2021-08-09
  回复
  举报
SundarrajMks
·2021-08-02
Great risk this year for new investors
回复
6
举报
EHG
·2021-08-02
Like
回复
4
举报

热议股票

7x24

全部

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1142925544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2021-08-01 11:07","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"1142925544","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year","media":"Barron's","content":"<div>\n“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1610680873436","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-01 11:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST>Barron's</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".DJI","symbol_name":"道琼斯","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST","article_id":"1142925544","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142925544","pubTimestamp":1627787240,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1610680873436","name":"Barron's"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"barrons.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"translate_title":"投资者，当心！股市正进入今年最危险的时期","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.\nBut the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.\nAugust actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.\nThis July did even better than the norm, with the S&P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.\nAugust’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”\nNot surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.\nPast isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.\nThe company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.\nAmong those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.\nTo be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.\nBut in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”\nHow those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.\nEconomists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.\nMarkowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":805634963,"gmtCreate":1627874801752,"gmtModify":1633755702932,"author":{"id":"4087698744325360","authorId":"4087698744325360","name":"glorify","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb1a0d88b0029e6cb51d7065d6b143e5","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"4087698744325360","idStr":"4087698744325360"},"htmlText":"Shares is always time of up &amp; it&nbsp;will take a Breath after stock rising at the peak. It is healthy to have correction &amp; create IOpportunity to buy the dip.&nbsp;It is also good to be cautious to re enter the right time if the shares&nbsp;price is undervalue.","listText":"Shares is always time of up &amp; it&nbsp;will take a Breath after stock rising at the peak. It is healthy to have correction &amp; create IOpportunity to buy the dip.&nbsp;It is also good to be cautious to re enter the right time if the shares&nbsp;price is undervalue.","text":"Shares is always time of up & it will take a Breath after stock rising at the peak. It is healthy to have correction & create IOpportunity to buy the dip. It is also good to be cautious to re enter the right time if the shares price is undervalue.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805634963","repostId":1142925544,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142925544","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627787240,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1142925544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-01 11:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142925544","media":"Barron's","summary":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970","content":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.<blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的季节”，乐队高唱着 20 世纪 70 年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆起在海滩或烧烤旁的美好时光。当时没有必要提醒任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.<blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔 (Stephen Suttmeier) 编制的 1928 年数据，八月的到来也意味着股市进入了历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现，标准普尔 500 指数在 8 月、9 月和 10 月的平均回报率为 0.03%，这是该大型股基准指数一年中最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们是唯一平均亏损的三个月时期。</blockquote> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.<blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7 月份标普500的平均回报率为 1.58%，其中 59.1% 的时间为正面结果，而 9 月份的平均回报率为负 1.03%，不到一半的时间（即 45%）以正面结果结束。</blockquote> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.<blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。据道琼斯统计专家称，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，是自 2018 年 9 月以来最长的连涨。在此期间，其累计上涨18.34%。</blockquote> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”<blockquote>8 月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为 0.70%，阳性结果率为 58.1%，标志着从 “夏季撕裂 ”到 “秋季下跌 ”的过渡。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.<blockquote>Suttmeier 发现，毫不奇怪，8 月至 10 月期间的滞后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据 1992 年的记录，继 4 月至 7 月期间波动性相对较低之后，ECBOE 波动率指数 (VIX) 在那几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.<blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是序幕，如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性动荡时期，那么 Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以 38 美元的价格出售了 5500 万股股票。在这个过程中，它给所有进入IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.<blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一个要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期的 38-42 美元范围的低端。他们的价格在第一天交易中下跌了8.4%，尽管他们在周五有所回升。截至周末，持有 Robinhood IPO 的买家下跌了 7.5%。</blockquote> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.<blockquote>公司联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔-特涅夫（Vladimir Tenev）和首席创意官拜朱-巴特（Baiju Bhatt）都在高价抛售，他们在首次公开募股中分别抛售了 125 万股股票。正如我杰出的前任艾伦-阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢指出的那样，卖出股票有很多很好的理由，但预期股价上涨并不是其中之一。鉴于富裕的所有者有能力通过廉价借款来将其资产货币化，而且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未如此真实。</blockquote> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，Tenev 和 Bhatt 仍然持有 Robinhood 的重大股份。Asour 的同事 Avi Salzman 报道称，这些股票按首次发行价计算价值 25 亿美元，Tenev 和 Bhatt 保留投票控制权。如果股价达到 300 美元，两人还可以获得 Tenev 价值高达 67 亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt 价值高达 40 亿美元的股票奖励，或者接近众所周知的十袋大亨。</blockquote> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”<blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪，美国工人的平均年薪降至 34,248 美元。正如喜剧演员雅科夫-斯米尔诺夫（Yakov Smirnoff）喜欢说的那样：“多么美好的国家啊!”</blockquote> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.<blockquote>这些工人的情况将是定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.<blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测集中在增加 90 万人左右。Jefferies 经济学家 Aneta Markowska 和 Thomas Simons 估计，这一增幅可能会超过人们期待已久的 100 万大关；他们预测120万。</blockquote> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)<blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有争议的问题。(有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事）。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-08-01 11:07\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.<blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的季节”，乐队高唱着 20 世纪 70 年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆起在海滩或烧烤旁的美好时光。当时没有必要提醒任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.<blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔 (Stephen Suttmeier) 编制的 1928 年数据，八月的到来也意味着股市进入了历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现，标准普尔 500 指数在 8 月、9 月和 10 月的平均回报率为 0.03%，这是该大型股基准指数一年中最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们是唯一平均亏损的三个月时期。</blockquote> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.<blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7 月份标普500的平均回报率为 1.58%，其中 59.1% 的时间为正面结果，而 9 月份的平均回报率为负 1.03%，不到一半的时间（即 45%）以正面结果结束。</blockquote> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.<blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。据道琼斯统计专家称，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，是自 2018 年 9 月以来最长的连涨。在此期间，其累计上涨18.34%。</blockquote> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”<blockquote>8 月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为 0.70%，阳性结果率为 58.1%，标志着从 “夏季撕裂 ”到 “秋季下跌 ”的过渡。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.<blockquote>Suttmeier 发现，毫不奇怪，8 月至 10 月期间的滞后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据 1992 年的记录，继 4 月至 7 月期间波动性相对较低之后，ECBOE 波动率指数 (VIX) 在那几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.<blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是序幕，如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性动荡时期，那么 Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以 38 美元的价格出售了 5500 万股股票。在这个过程中，它给所有进入IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.<blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一个要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期的 38-42 美元范围的低端。他们的价格在第一天交易中下跌了8.4%，尽管他们在周五有所回升。截至周末，持有 Robinhood IPO 的买家下跌了 7.5%。</blockquote> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.<blockquote>公司联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔-特涅夫（Vladimir Tenev）和首席创意官拜朱-巴特（Baiju Bhatt）都在高价抛售，他们在首次公开募股中分别抛售了 125 万股股票。正如我杰出的前任艾伦-阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢指出的那样，卖出股票有很多很好的理由，但预期股价上涨并不是其中之一。鉴于富裕的所有者有能力通过廉价借款来将其资产货币化，而且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未如此真实。</blockquote> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，Tenev 和 Bhatt 仍然持有 Robinhood 的重大股份。Asour 的同事 Avi Salzman 报道称，这些股票按首次发行价计算价值 25 亿美元，Tenev 和 Bhatt 保留投票控制权。如果股价达到 300 美元，两人还可以获得 Tenev 价值高达 67 亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt 价值高达 40 亿美元的股票奖励，或者接近众所周知的十袋大亨。</blockquote> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”<blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪，美国工人的平均年薪降至 34,248 美元。正如喜剧演员雅科夫-斯米尔诺夫（Yakov Smirnoff）喜欢说的那样：“多么美好的国家啊!”</blockquote> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.<blockquote>这些工人的情况将是定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.<blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测集中在增加 90 万人左右。Jefferies 经济学家 Aneta Markowska 和 Thomas Simons 估计，这一增幅可能会超过人们期待已久的 100 万大关；他们预测120万。</blockquote> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)<blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有争议的问题。(有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事）。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142925544","content_text":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.\nBut the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.\nAugust actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.\nThis July did even better than the norm, with the S&P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.\nAugust’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”\nNot surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.\nPast isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.\nThe company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.\nAmong those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.\nTo be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.\nBut in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”\nHow those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.\nEconomists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.\nMarkowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5401244,"gmtCreate":1627889403284,"gmtModify":1635162121465,"authorId":3583109252998837,"author":{"id":3583109252998837,"idStr":"3583109252998837","authorId":3583109252998837,"name":"oddox","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":805634963,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"how to know the right time to buy \"the dip\"?","text":"how to know the right time to buy \"the dip\"?","html":"how to know the right time to buy \"the dip\"?"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":805860678,"gmtCreate":1627870156894,"gmtModify":1633755759801,"author":{"id":"3578631759891221","authorId":"3578631759891221","name":"keaty","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcf9d00e41b755619a4b4c3eb6f05541","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[{"categoryType":1104,"badgeId":"99a38ff64bfd44f891fd016771fc8f64-1","name":"超级披露者","description":"在交易分享中开启超级披露","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70e97d213ed3e4f4820224f1366d402f","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/802f4014829adb4e63332fc230b97e42","isScarce":1,"plateColors":{"bgColor":{"dark":"#2f2a1f","tint":"#fcf6e5"},"fontColor":{"dark":"#dea95e","tint":"#885600"}},"effectEnabled":0,"redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLinkType":1,"redirectLink":"https://www.itigerup.com/activity/forapp/star-investor","redirectLinkValidityFrom":1776816000000,"redirectLinkValidityTo":2156198400000,"sortingWeight":0,"wearable":1}],"authorIdStr":"3578631759891221","idStr":"3578631759891221"},"htmlText":"Having gone higher.... , By the law of nature, at some point it must come lower.","listText":"Having gone higher.... , By the law of nature, at some point it must come lower.","text":"Having gone higher.... , By the law of nature, at some point it must come lower.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805860678","repostId":1142925544,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1142925544","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627787240,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1142925544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-01 11:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142925544","media":"Barron's","summary":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970","content":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.<blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的季节”，乐队高唱着 20 世纪 70 年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆起在海滩或烧烤旁的美好时光。当时没有必要提醒任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.<blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔 (Stephen Suttmeier) 编制的 1928 年数据，八月的到来也意味着股市进入了历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现，标准普尔 500 指数在 8 月、9 月和 10 月的平均回报率为 0.03%，这是该大型股基准指数一年中最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们是唯一平均亏损的三个月时期。</blockquote> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.<blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7 月份标普500的平均回报率为 1.58%，其中 59.1% 的时间为正面结果，而 9 月份的平均回报率为负 1.03%，不到一半的时间（即 45%）以正面结果结束。</blockquote> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.<blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。据道琼斯统计专家称，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，是自 2018 年 9 月以来最长的连涨。在此期间，其累计上涨18.34%。</blockquote> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”<blockquote>8 月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为 0.70%，阳性结果率为 58.1%，标志着从 “夏季撕裂 ”到 “秋季下跌 ”的过渡。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.<blockquote>Suttmeier 发现，毫不奇怪，8 月至 10 月期间的滞后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据 1992 年的记录，继 4 月至 7 月期间波动性相对较低之后，ECBOE 波动率指数 (VIX) 在那几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.<blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是序幕，如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性动荡时期，那么 Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以 38 美元的价格出售了 5500 万股股票。在这个过程中，它给所有进入IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.<blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一个要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期的 38-42 美元范围的低端。他们的价格在第一天交易中下跌了8.4%，尽管他们在周五有所回升。截至周末，持有 Robinhood IPO 的买家下跌了 7.5%。</blockquote> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.<blockquote>公司联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔-特涅夫（Vladimir Tenev）和首席创意官拜朱-巴特（Baiju Bhatt）都在高价抛售，他们在首次公开募股中分别抛售了 125 万股股票。正如我杰出的前任艾伦-阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢指出的那样，卖出股票有很多很好的理由，但预期股价上涨并不是其中之一。鉴于富裕的所有者有能力通过廉价借款来将其资产货币化，而且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未如此真实。</blockquote> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，Tenev 和 Bhatt 仍然持有 Robinhood 的重大股份。Asour 的同事 Avi Salzman 报道称，这些股票按首次发行价计算价值 25 亿美元，Tenev 和 Bhatt 保留投票控制权。如果股价达到 300 美元，两人还可以获得 Tenev 价值高达 67 亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt 价值高达 40 亿美元的股票奖励，或者接近众所周知的十袋大亨。</blockquote> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”<blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪，美国工人的平均年薪降至 34,248 美元。正如喜剧演员雅科夫-斯米尔诺夫（Yakov Smirnoff）喜欢说的那样：“多么美好的国家啊!”</blockquote> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.<blockquote>这些工人的情况将是定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.<blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测集中在增加 90 万人左右。Jefferies 经济学家 Aneta Markowska 和 Thomas Simons 估计，这一增幅可能会超过人们期待已久的 100 万大关；他们预测120万。</blockquote> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)<blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有争议的问题。(有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事）。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-08-01 11:07\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.<blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的季节”，乐队高唱着 20 世纪 70 年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆起在海滩或烧烤旁的美好时光。当时没有必要提醒任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.<blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔 (Stephen Suttmeier) 编制的 1928 年数据，八月的到来也意味着股市进入了历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现，标准普尔 500 指数在 8 月、9 月和 10 月的平均回报率为 0.03%，这是该大型股基准指数一年中最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们是唯一平均亏损的三个月时期。</blockquote> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.<blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7 月份标普500的平均回报率为 1.58%，其中 59.1% 的时间为正面结果，而 9 月份的平均回报率为负 1.03%，不到一半的时间（即 45%）以正面结果结束。</blockquote> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.<blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。据道琼斯统计专家称，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，是自 2018 年 9 月以来最长的连涨。在此期间，其累计上涨18.34%。</blockquote> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”<blockquote>8 月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为 0.70%，阳性结果率为 58.1%，标志着从 “夏季撕裂 ”到 “秋季下跌 ”的过渡。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.<blockquote>Suttmeier 发现，毫不奇怪，8 月至 10 月期间的滞后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据 1992 年的记录，继 4 月至 7 月期间波动性相对较低之后，ECBOE 波动率指数 (VIX) 在那几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.<blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是序幕，如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性动荡时期，那么 Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以 38 美元的价格出售了 5500 万股股票。在这个过程中，它给所有进入IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.<blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一个要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期的 38-42 美元范围的低端。他们的价格在第一天交易中下跌了8.4%，尽管他们在周五有所回升。截至周末，持有 Robinhood IPO 的买家下跌了 7.5%。</blockquote> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.<blockquote>公司联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔-特涅夫（Vladimir Tenev）和首席创意官拜朱-巴特（Baiju Bhatt）都在高价抛售，他们在首次公开募股中分别抛售了 125 万股股票。正如我杰出的前任艾伦-阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢指出的那样，卖出股票有很多很好的理由，但预期股价上涨并不是其中之一。鉴于富裕的所有者有能力通过廉价借款来将其资产货币化，而且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未如此真实。</blockquote> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，Tenev 和 Bhatt 仍然持有 Robinhood 的重大股份。Asour 的同事 Avi Salzman 报道称，这些股票按首次发行价计算价值 25 亿美元，Tenev 和 Bhatt 保留投票控制权。如果股价达到 300 美元，两人还可以获得 Tenev 价值高达 67 亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt 价值高达 40 亿美元的股票奖励，或者接近众所周知的十袋大亨。</blockquote> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”<blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪，美国工人的平均年薪降至 34,248 美元。正如喜剧演员雅科夫-斯米尔诺夫（Yakov Smirnoff）喜欢说的那样：“多么美好的国家啊!”</blockquote> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.<blockquote>这些工人的情况将是定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.<blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测集中在增加 90 万人左右。Jefferies 经济学家 Aneta Markowska 和 Thomas Simons 估计，这一增幅可能会超过人们期待已久的 100 万大关；他们预测120万。</blockquote> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)<blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有争议的问题。(有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事）。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142925544","content_text":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.\nBut the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.\nAugust actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.\nThis July did even better than the norm, with the S&P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.\nAugust’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”\nNot surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.\nPast isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.\nThe company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.\nAmong those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.\nTo be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.\nBut in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”\nHow those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.\nEconomists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.\nMarkowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":805834414,"gmtCreate":1627869296438,"gmtModify":1633755778526,"author":{"id":"3571044771112848","authorId":"3571044771112848","name":"ming22","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3571044771112848","idStr":"3571044771112848"},"htmlText":"Good to know that..&nbsp;","listText":"Good to know that..&nbsp;","text":"Good to know that..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805834414","repostId":1142925544,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142925544","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627787240,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1142925544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-01 11:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142925544","media":"Barron's","summary":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970","content":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.<blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的季节”，乐队高唱着 20 世纪 70 年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆起在海滩或烧烤旁的美好时光。当时没有必要提醒任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.<blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔 (Stephen Suttmeier) 编制的 1928 年数据，八月的到来也意味着股市进入了历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现，标准普尔 500 指数在 8 月、9 月和 10 月的平均回报率为 0.03%，这是该大型股基准指数一年中最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们是唯一平均亏损的三个月时期。</blockquote> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.<blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7 月份标普500的平均回报率为 1.58%，其中 59.1% 的时间为正面结果，而 9 月份的平均回报率为负 1.03%，不到一半的时间（即 45%）以正面结果结束。</blockquote> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.<blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。据道琼斯统计专家称，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，是自 2018 年 9 月以来最长的连涨。在此期间，其累计上涨18.34%。</blockquote> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”<blockquote>8 月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为 0.70%，阳性结果率为 58.1%，标志着从 “夏季撕裂 ”到 “秋季下跌 ”的过渡。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.<blockquote>Suttmeier 发现，毫不奇怪，8 月至 10 月期间的滞后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据 1992 年的记录，继 4 月至 7 月期间波动性相对较低之后，ECBOE 波动率指数 (VIX) 在那几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.<blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是序幕，如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性动荡时期，那么 Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以 38 美元的价格出售了 5500 万股股票。在这个过程中，它给所有进入IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.<blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一个要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期的 38-42 美元范围的低端。他们的价格在第一天交易中下跌了8.4%，尽管他们在周五有所回升。截至周末，持有 Robinhood IPO 的买家下跌了 7.5%。</blockquote> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.<blockquote>公司联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔-特涅夫（Vladimir Tenev）和首席创意官拜朱-巴特（Baiju Bhatt）都在高价抛售，他们在首次公开募股中分别抛售了 125 万股股票。正如我杰出的前任艾伦-阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢指出的那样，卖出股票有很多很好的理由，但预期股价上涨并不是其中之一。鉴于富裕的所有者有能力通过廉价借款来将其资产货币化，而且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未如此真实。</blockquote> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，Tenev 和 Bhatt 仍然持有 Robinhood 的重大股份。Asour 的同事 Avi Salzman 报道称，这些股票按首次发行价计算价值 25 亿美元，Tenev 和 Bhatt 保留投票控制权。如果股价达到 300 美元，两人还可以获得 Tenev 价值高达 67 亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt 价值高达 40 亿美元的股票奖励，或者接近众所周知的十袋大亨。</blockquote> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”<blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪，美国工人的平均年薪降至 34,248 美元。正如喜剧演员雅科夫-斯米尔诺夫（Yakov Smirnoff）喜欢说的那样：“多么美好的国家啊!”</blockquote> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.<blockquote>这些工人的情况将是定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.<blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测集中在增加 90 万人左右。Jefferies 经济学家 Aneta Markowska 和 Thomas Simons 估计，这一增幅可能会超过人们期待已久的 100 万大关；他们预测120万。</blockquote> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)<blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有争议的问题。(有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事）。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-08-01 11:07\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.<blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的季节”，乐队高唱着 20 世纪 70 年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆起在海滩或烧烤旁的美好时光。当时没有必要提醒任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.<blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔 (Stephen Suttmeier) 编制的 1928 年数据，八月的到来也意味着股市进入了历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现，标准普尔 500 指数在 8 月、9 月和 10 月的平均回报率为 0.03%，这是该大型股基准指数一年中最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们是唯一平均亏损的三个月时期。</blockquote> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.<blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7 月份标普500的平均回报率为 1.58%，其中 59.1% 的时间为正面结果，而 9 月份的平均回报率为负 1.03%，不到一半的时间（即 45%）以正面结果结束。</blockquote> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.<blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。据道琼斯统计专家称，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，是自 2018 年 9 月以来最长的连涨。在此期间，其累计上涨18.34%。</blockquote> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”<blockquote>8 月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为 0.70%，阳性结果率为 58.1%，标志着从 “夏季撕裂 ”到 “秋季下跌 ”的过渡。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.<blockquote>Suttmeier 发现，毫不奇怪，8 月至 10 月期间的滞后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据 1992 年的记录，继 4 月至 7 月期间波动性相对较低之后，ECBOE 波动率指数 (VIX) 在那几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.<blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是序幕，如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性动荡时期，那么 Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以 38 美元的价格出售了 5500 万股股票。在这个过程中，它给所有进入IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.<blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一个要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期的 38-42 美元范围的低端。他们的价格在第一天交易中下跌了8.4%，尽管他们在周五有所回升。截至周末，持有 Robinhood IPO 的买家下跌了 7.5%。</blockquote> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.<blockquote>公司联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔-特涅夫（Vladimir Tenev）和首席创意官拜朱-巴特（Baiju Bhatt）都在高价抛售，他们在首次公开募股中分别抛售了 125 万股股票。正如我杰出的前任艾伦-阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢指出的那样，卖出股票有很多很好的理由，但预期股价上涨并不是其中之一。鉴于富裕的所有者有能力通过廉价借款来将其资产货币化，而且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未如此真实。</blockquote> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，Tenev 和 Bhatt 仍然持有 Robinhood 的重大股份。Asour 的同事 Avi Salzman 报道称，这些股票按首次发行价计算价值 25 亿美元，Tenev 和 Bhatt 保留投票控制权。如果股价达到 300 美元，两人还可以获得 Tenev 价值高达 67 亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt 价值高达 40 亿美元的股票奖励，或者接近众所周知的十袋大亨。</blockquote> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”<blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪，美国工人的平均年薪降至 34,248 美元。正如喜剧演员雅科夫-斯米尔诺夫（Yakov Smirnoff）喜欢说的那样：“多么美好的国家啊!”</blockquote> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.<blockquote>这些工人的情况将是定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.<blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测集中在增加 90 万人左右。Jefferies 经济学家 Aneta Markowska 和 Thomas Simons 估计，这一增幅可能会超过人们期待已久的 100 万大关；他们预测120万。</blockquote> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)<blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有争议的问题。(有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事）。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142925544","content_text":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.\nBut the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.\nAugust actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.\nThis July did even better than the norm, with the S&P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.\nAugust’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”\nNot surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.\nPast isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.\nThe company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.\nAmong those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.\nTo be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.\nBut in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”\nHow those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.\nEconomists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.\nMarkowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":805807600,"gmtCreate":1627868389800,"gmtModify":1633755794579,"author":{"id":"3582340692890078","authorId":"3582340692890078","name":"henry0leu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/130d0c8cbc685bc99012d9c4782e4cff","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3582340692890078","idStr":"3582340692890078"},"htmlText":"Fearful or otherwise?","listText":"Fearful or otherwise?","text":"Fearful or otherwise?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805807600","repostId":1142925544,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142925544","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627787240,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1142925544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-01 11:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142925544","media":"Barron's","summary":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970","content":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.<blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的季节”，乐队高唱着 20 世纪 70 年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆起在海滩或烧烤旁的美好时光。当时没有必要提醒任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.<blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔 (Stephen Suttmeier) 编制的 1928 年数据，八月的到来也意味着股市进入了历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现，标准普尔 500 指数在 8 月、9 月和 10 月的平均回报率为 0.03%，这是该大型股基准指数一年中最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们是唯一平均亏损的三个月时期。</blockquote> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.<blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7 月份标普500的平均回报率为 1.58%，其中 59.1% 的时间为正面结果，而 9 月份的平均回报率为负 1.03%，不到一半的时间（即 45%）以正面结果结束。</blockquote> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.<blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。据道琼斯统计专家称，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，是自 2018 年 9 月以来最长的连涨。在此期间，其累计上涨18.34%。</blockquote> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”<blockquote>8 月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为 0.70%，阳性结果率为 58.1%，标志着从 “夏季撕裂 ”到 “秋季下跌 ”的过渡。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.<blockquote>Suttmeier 发现，毫不奇怪，8 月至 10 月期间的滞后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据 1992 年的记录，继 4 月至 7 月期间波动性相对较低之后，ECBOE 波动率指数 (VIX) 在那几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.<blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是序幕，如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性动荡时期，那么 Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以 38 美元的价格出售了 5500 万股股票。在这个过程中，它给所有进入IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.<blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一个要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期的 38-42 美元范围的低端。他们的价格在第一天交易中下跌了8.4%，尽管他们在周五有所回升。截至周末，持有 Robinhood IPO 的买家下跌了 7.5%。</blockquote> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.<blockquote>公司联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔-特涅夫（Vladimir Tenev）和首席创意官拜朱-巴特（Baiju Bhatt）都在高价抛售，他们在首次公开募股中分别抛售了 125 万股股票。正如我杰出的前任艾伦-阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢指出的那样，卖出股票有很多很好的理由，但预期股价上涨并不是其中之一。鉴于富裕的所有者有能力通过廉价借款来将其资产货币化，而且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未如此真实。</blockquote> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，Tenev 和 Bhatt 仍然持有 Robinhood 的重大股份。Asour 的同事 Avi Salzman 报道称，这些股票按首次发行价计算价值 25 亿美元，Tenev 和 Bhatt 保留投票控制权。如果股价达到 300 美元，两人还可以获得 Tenev 价值高达 67 亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt 价值高达 40 亿美元的股票奖励，或者接近众所周知的十袋大亨。</blockquote> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”<blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪，美国工人的平均年薪降至 34,248 美元。正如喜剧演员雅科夫-斯米尔诺夫（Yakov Smirnoff）喜欢说的那样：“多么美好的国家啊!”</blockquote> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.<blockquote>这些工人的情况将是定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.<blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测集中在增加 90 万人左右。Jefferies 经济学家 Aneta Markowska 和 Thomas Simons 估计，这一增幅可能会超过人们期待已久的 100 万大关；他们预测120万。</blockquote> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)<blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有争议的问题。(有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事）。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-08-01 11:07\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.<blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的季节”，乐队高唱着 20 世纪 70 年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆起在海滩或烧烤旁的美好时光。当时没有必要提醒任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.<blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔 (Stephen Suttmeier) 编制的 1928 年数据，八月的到来也意味着股市进入了历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现，标准普尔 500 指数在 8 月、9 月和 10 月的平均回报率为 0.03%，这是该大型股基准指数一年中最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们是唯一平均亏损的三个月时期。</blockquote> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.<blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7 月份标普500的平均回报率为 1.58%，其中 59.1% 的时间为正面结果，而 9 月份的平均回报率为负 1.03%，不到一半的时间（即 45%）以正面结果结束。</blockquote> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.<blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。据道琼斯统计专家称，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，是自 2018 年 9 月以来最长的连涨。在此期间，其累计上涨18.34%。</blockquote> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”<blockquote>8 月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为 0.70%，阳性结果率为 58.1%，标志着从 “夏季撕裂 ”到 “秋季下跌 ”的过渡。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.<blockquote>Suttmeier 发现，毫不奇怪，8 月至 10 月期间的滞后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据 1992 年的记录，继 4 月至 7 月期间波动性相对较低之后，ECBOE 波动率指数 (VIX) 在那几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.<blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是序幕，如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性动荡时期，那么 Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以 38 美元的价格出售了 5500 万股股票。在这个过程中，它给所有进入IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.<blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一个要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期的 38-42 美元范围的低端。他们的价格在第一天交易中下跌了8.4%，尽管他们在周五有所回升。截至周末，持有 Robinhood IPO 的买家下跌了 7.5%。</blockquote> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.<blockquote>公司联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔-特涅夫（Vladimir Tenev）和首席创意官拜朱-巴特（Baiju Bhatt）都在高价抛售，他们在首次公开募股中分别抛售了 125 万股股票。正如我杰出的前任艾伦-阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢指出的那样，卖出股票有很多很好的理由，但预期股价上涨并不是其中之一。鉴于富裕的所有者有能力通过廉价借款来将其资产货币化，而且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未如此真实。</blockquote> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，Tenev 和 Bhatt 仍然持有 Robinhood 的重大股份。Asour 的同事 Avi Salzman 报道称，这些股票按首次发行价计算价值 25 亿美元，Tenev 和 Bhatt 保留投票控制权。如果股价达到 300 美元，两人还可以获得 Tenev 价值高达 67 亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt 价值高达 40 亿美元的股票奖励，或者接近众所周知的十袋大亨。</blockquote> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”<blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪，美国工人的平均年薪降至 34,248 美元。正如喜剧演员雅科夫-斯米尔诺夫（Yakov Smirnoff）喜欢说的那样：“多么美好的国家啊!”</blockquote> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.<blockquote>这些工人的情况将是定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.<blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测集中在增加 90 万人左右。Jefferies 经济学家 Aneta Markowska 和 Thomas Simons 估计，这一增幅可能会超过人们期待已久的 100 万大关；他们预测120万。</blockquote> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)<blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有争议的问题。(有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事）。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142925544","content_text":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.\nBut the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.\nAugust actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.\nThis July did even better than the norm, with the S&P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.\nAugust’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”\nNot surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.\nPast isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.\nThe company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.\nAmong those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.\nTo be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.\nBut in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”\nHow those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.\nEconomists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.\nMarkowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":805375718,"gmtCreate":1627863516134,"gmtModify":1633755895895,"author":{"id":"3583705894030764","authorId":"3583705894030764","name":"Tailwind","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e34622367968d3257c3ffe6b0d24ff87","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3583705894030764","idStr":"3583705894030764"},"htmlText":"Great, time to collect good stocks","listText":"Great, time to collect good stocks","text":"Great, time to collect good stocks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805375718","repostId":1142925544,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142925544","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627787240,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1142925544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-01 11:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142925544","media":"Barron's","summary":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970","content":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.<blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的季节”，乐队高唱着 20 世纪 70 年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆起在海滩或烧烤旁的美好时光。当时没有必要提醒任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.<blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔 (Stephen Suttmeier) 编制的 1928 年数据，八月的到来也意味着股市进入了历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现，标准普尔 500 指数在 8 月、9 月和 10 月的平均回报率为 0.03%，这是该大型股基准指数一年中最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们是唯一平均亏损的三个月时期。</blockquote> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.<blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7 月份标普500的平均回报率为 1.58%，其中 59.1% 的时间为正面结果，而 9 月份的平均回报率为负 1.03%，不到一半的时间（即 45%）以正面结果结束。</blockquote> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.<blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。据道琼斯统计专家称，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，是自 2018 年 9 月以来最长的连涨。在此期间，其累计上涨18.34%。</blockquote> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”<blockquote>8 月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为 0.70%，阳性结果率为 58.1%，标志着从 “夏季撕裂 ”到 “秋季下跌 ”的过渡。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.<blockquote>Suttmeier 发现，毫不奇怪，8 月至 10 月期间的滞后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据 1992 年的记录，继 4 月至 7 月期间波动性相对较低之后，ECBOE 波动率指数 (VIX) 在那几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.<blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是序幕，如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性动荡时期，那么 Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以 38 美元的价格出售了 5500 万股股票。在这个过程中，它给所有进入IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.<blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一个要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期的 38-42 美元范围的低端。他们的价格在第一天交易中下跌了8.4%，尽管他们在周五有所回升。截至周末，持有 Robinhood IPO 的买家下跌了 7.5%。</blockquote> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.<blockquote>公司联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔-特涅夫（Vladimir Tenev）和首席创意官拜朱-巴特（Baiju Bhatt）都在高价抛售，他们在首次公开募股中分别抛售了 125 万股股票。正如我杰出的前任艾伦-阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢指出的那样，卖出股票有很多很好的理由，但预期股价上涨并不是其中之一。鉴于富裕的所有者有能力通过廉价借款来将其资产货币化，而且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未如此真实。</blockquote> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，Tenev 和 Bhatt 仍然持有 Robinhood 的重大股份。Asour 的同事 Avi Salzman 报道称，这些股票按首次发行价计算价值 25 亿美元，Tenev 和 Bhatt 保留投票控制权。如果股价达到 300 美元，两人还可以获得 Tenev 价值高达 67 亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt 价值高达 40 亿美元的股票奖励，或者接近众所周知的十袋大亨。</blockquote> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”<blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪，美国工人的平均年薪降至 34,248 美元。正如喜剧演员雅科夫-斯米尔诺夫（Yakov Smirnoff）喜欢说的那样：“多么美好的国家啊!”</blockquote> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.<blockquote>这些工人的情况将是定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.<blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测集中在增加 90 万人左右。Jefferies 经济学家 Aneta Markowska 和 Thomas Simons 估计，这一增幅可能会超过人们期待已久的 100 万大关；他们预测120万。</blockquote> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)<blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有争议的问题。(有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事）。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-08-01 11:07\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.<blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的季节”，乐队高唱着 20 世纪 70 年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆起在海滩或烧烤旁的美好时光。当时没有必要提醒任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.<blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔 (Stephen Suttmeier) 编制的 1928 年数据，八月的到来也意味着股市进入了历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现，标准普尔 500 指数在 8 月、9 月和 10 月的平均回报率为 0.03%，这是该大型股基准指数一年中最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们是唯一平均亏损的三个月时期。</blockquote> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.<blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7 月份标普500的平均回报率为 1.58%，其中 59.1% 的时间为正面结果，而 9 月份的平均回报率为负 1.03%，不到一半的时间（即 45%）以正面结果结束。</blockquote> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.<blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。据道琼斯统计专家称，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，是自 2018 年 9 月以来最长的连涨。在此期间，其累计上涨18.34%。</blockquote> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”<blockquote>8 月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为 0.70%，阳性结果率为 58.1%，标志着从 “夏季撕裂 ”到 “秋季下跌 ”的过渡。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.<blockquote>Suttmeier 发现，毫不奇怪，8 月至 10 月期间的滞后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据 1992 年的记录，继 4 月至 7 月期间波动性相对较低之后，ECBOE 波动率指数 (VIX) 在那几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.<blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是序幕，如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性动荡时期，那么 Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以 38 美元的价格出售了 5500 万股股票。在这个过程中，它给所有进入IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.<blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一个要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期的 38-42 美元范围的低端。他们的价格在第一天交易中下跌了8.4%，尽管他们在周五有所回升。截至周末，持有 Robinhood IPO 的买家下跌了 7.5%。</blockquote> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.<blockquote>公司联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔-特涅夫（Vladimir Tenev）和首席创意官拜朱-巴特（Baiju Bhatt）都在高价抛售，他们在首次公开募股中分别抛售了 125 万股股票。正如我杰出的前任艾伦-阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢指出的那样，卖出股票有很多很好的理由，但预期股价上涨并不是其中之一。鉴于富裕的所有者有能力通过廉价借款来将其资产货币化，而且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未如此真实。</blockquote> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，Tenev 和 Bhatt 仍然持有 Robinhood 的重大股份。Asour 的同事 Avi Salzman 报道称，这些股票按首次发行价计算价值 25 亿美元，Tenev 和 Bhatt 保留投票控制权。如果股价达到 300 美元，两人还可以获得 Tenev 价值高达 67 亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt 价值高达 40 亿美元的股票奖励，或者接近众所周知的十袋大亨。</blockquote> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”<blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪，美国工人的平均年薪降至 34,248 美元。正如喜剧演员雅科夫-斯米尔诺夫（Yakov Smirnoff）喜欢说的那样：“多么美好的国家啊!”</blockquote> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.<blockquote>这些工人的情况将是定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.<blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测集中在增加 90 万人左右。Jefferies 经济学家 Aneta Markowska 和 Thomas Simons 估计，这一增幅可能会超过人们期待已久的 100 万大关；他们预测120万。</blockquote> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)<blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有争议的问题。(有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事）。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142925544","content_text":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.\nBut the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.\nAugust actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.\nThis July did even better than the norm, with the S&P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.\nAugust’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”\nNot surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.\nPast isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.\nThe company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.\nAmong those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.\nTo be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.\nBut in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”\nHow those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.\nEconomists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.\nMarkowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5398597,"gmtCreate":1627867643308,"gmtModify":1635162361477,"authorId":3586408007231136,"author":{"id":3586408007231136,"idStr":"3586408007231136","authorId":3586408007231136,"name":"KeatWei","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/888c5c9e15d9720e77d1799e3ef80e42","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":805375718,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"👍🏼","text":"👍🏼","html":"👍🏼"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":805371814,"gmtCreate":1627863286238,"gmtModify":1633755900193,"author":{"id":"3578967818815253","authorId":"3578967818815253","name":"LHJarsenal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0d7e1e2167d189c3611e1bcef48e104","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3578967818815253","idStr":"3578967818815253"},"htmlText":"Like n comment.","listText":"Like n comment.","text":"Like n comment.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805371814","repostId":1142925544,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142925544","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627787240,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1142925544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-01 11:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142925544","media":"Barron's","summary":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970","content":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.<blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的季节”，乐队高唱着 20 世纪 70 年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆起在海滩或烧烤旁的美好时光。当时没有必要提醒任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.<blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔 (Stephen Suttmeier) 编制的 1928 年数据，八月的到来也意味着股市进入了历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现，标准普尔 500 指数在 8 月、9 月和 10 月的平均回报率为 0.03%，这是该大型股基准指数一年中最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们是唯一平均亏损的三个月时期。</blockquote> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.<blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7 月份标普500的平均回报率为 1.58%，其中 59.1% 的时间为正面结果，而 9 月份的平均回报率为负 1.03%，不到一半的时间（即 45%）以正面结果结束。</blockquote> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.<blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。据道琼斯统计专家称，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，是自 2018 年 9 月以来最长的连涨。在此期间，其累计上涨18.34%。</blockquote> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”<blockquote>8 月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为 0.70%，阳性结果率为 58.1%，标志着从 “夏季撕裂 ”到 “秋季下跌 ”的过渡。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.<blockquote>Suttmeier 发现，毫不奇怪，8 月至 10 月期间的滞后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据 1992 年的记录，继 4 月至 7 月期间波动性相对较低之后，ECBOE 波动率指数 (VIX) 在那几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.<blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是序幕，如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性动荡时期，那么 Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以 38 美元的价格出售了 5500 万股股票。在这个过程中，它给所有进入IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.<blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一个要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期的 38-42 美元范围的低端。他们的价格在第一天交易中下跌了8.4%，尽管他们在周五有所回升。截至周末，持有 Robinhood IPO 的买家下跌了 7.5%。</blockquote> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.<blockquote>公司联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔-特涅夫（Vladimir Tenev）和首席创意官拜朱-巴特（Baiju Bhatt）都在高价抛售，他们在首次公开募股中分别抛售了 125 万股股票。正如我杰出的前任艾伦-阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢指出的那样，卖出股票有很多很好的理由，但预期股价上涨并不是其中之一。鉴于富裕的所有者有能力通过廉价借款来将其资产货币化，而且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未如此真实。</blockquote> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，Tenev 和 Bhatt 仍然持有 Robinhood 的重大股份。Asour 的同事 Avi Salzman 报道称，这些股票按首次发行价计算价值 25 亿美元，Tenev 和 Bhatt 保留投票控制权。如果股价达到 300 美元，两人还可以获得 Tenev 价值高达 67 亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt 价值高达 40 亿美元的股票奖励，或者接近众所周知的十袋大亨。</blockquote> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”<blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪，美国工人的平均年薪降至 34,248 美元。正如喜剧演员雅科夫-斯米尔诺夫（Yakov Smirnoff）喜欢说的那样：“多么美好的国家啊!”</blockquote> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.<blockquote>这些工人的情况将是定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.<blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测集中在增加 90 万人左右。Jefferies 经济学家 Aneta Markowska 和 Thomas Simons 估计，这一增幅可能会超过人们期待已久的 100 万大关；他们预测120万。</blockquote> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)<blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有争议的问题。(有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事）。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-08-01 11:07\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.<blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的季节”，乐队高唱着 20 世纪 70 年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆起在海滩或烧烤旁的美好时光。当时没有必要提醒任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.<blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔 (Stephen Suttmeier) 编制的 1928 年数据，八月的到来也意味着股市进入了历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现，标准普尔 500 指数在 8 月、9 月和 10 月的平均回报率为 0.03%，这是该大型股基准指数一年中最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们是唯一平均亏损的三个月时期。</blockquote> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.<blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7 月份标普500的平均回报率为 1.58%，其中 59.1% 的时间为正面结果，而 9 月份的平均回报率为负 1.03%，不到一半的时间（即 45%）以正面结果结束。</blockquote> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.<blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。据道琼斯统计专家称，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，是自 2018 年 9 月以来最长的连涨。在此期间，其累计上涨18.34%。</blockquote> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”<blockquote>8 月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为 0.70%，阳性结果率为 58.1%，标志着从 “夏季撕裂 ”到 “秋季下跌 ”的过渡。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.<blockquote>Suttmeier 发现，毫不奇怪，8 月至 10 月期间的滞后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据 1992 年的记录，继 4 月至 7 月期间波动性相对较低之后，ECBOE 波动率指数 (VIX) 在那几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.<blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是序幕，如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性动荡时期，那么 Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以 38 美元的价格出售了 5500 万股股票。在这个过程中，它给所有进入IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.<blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一个要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期的 38-42 美元范围的低端。他们的价格在第一天交易中下跌了8.4%，尽管他们在周五有所回升。截至周末，持有 Robinhood IPO 的买家下跌了 7.5%。</blockquote> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.<blockquote>公司联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔-特涅夫（Vladimir Tenev）和首席创意官拜朱-巴特（Baiju Bhatt）都在高价抛售，他们在首次公开募股中分别抛售了 125 万股股票。正如我杰出的前任艾伦-阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢指出的那样，卖出股票有很多很好的理由，但预期股价上涨并不是其中之一。鉴于富裕的所有者有能力通过廉价借款来将其资产货币化，而且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未如此真实。</blockquote> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，Tenev 和 Bhatt 仍然持有 Robinhood 的重大股份。Asour 的同事 Avi Salzman 报道称，这些股票按首次发行价计算价值 25 亿美元，Tenev 和 Bhatt 保留投票控制权。如果股价达到 300 美元，两人还可以获得 Tenev 价值高达 67 亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt 价值高达 40 亿美元的股票奖励，或者接近众所周知的十袋大亨。</blockquote> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”<blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪，美国工人的平均年薪降至 34,248 美元。正如喜剧演员雅科夫-斯米尔诺夫（Yakov Smirnoff）喜欢说的那样：“多么美好的国家啊!”</blockquote> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.<blockquote>这些工人的情况将是定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.<blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测集中在增加 90 万人左右。Jefferies 经济学家 Aneta Markowska 和 Thomas Simons 估计，这一增幅可能会超过人们期待已久的 100 万大关；他们预测120万。</blockquote> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)<blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有争议的问题。(有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事）。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142925544","content_text":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.\nBut the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.\nAugust actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.\nThis July did even better than the norm, with the S&P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.\nAugust’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”\nNot surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.\nPast isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.\nThe company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.\nAmong those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.\nTo be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.\nBut in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”\nHow those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.\nEconomists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.\nMarkowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5398173,"gmtCreate":1627865616661,"gmtModify":1635162405157,"authorId":4088415017171770,"author":{"id":4088415017171770,"idStr":"4088415017171770","authorId":4088415017171770,"name":"PYEO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffd529f4a692f5731760183a63c10858","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":805371814,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Like please.","text":"Like please.","html":"Like please."},{"id":5402072,"gmtCreate":1627895617420,"gmtModify":1635162062813,"authorId":3579262958727025,"author":{"id":3579262958727025,"idStr":"3579262958727025","authorId":3579262958727025,"name":"CWL711","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/982058e5cb33e9069dbb2ca28d3fc46e","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":805371814,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":805368149,"gmtCreate":1627861655981,"gmtModify":1631888426577,"author":{"id":"3561472805649521","authorId":"3561472805649521","name":"hlw8888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ac2fb959ae09e12e50b3a31148fe95a","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3561472805649521","idStr":"3561472805649521"},"htmlText":"beware or buy and hold the good stocks???&nbsp;[思考]&nbsp;","listText":"beware or buy and hold the good stocks???&nbsp;[思考]&nbsp;","text":"beware or buy and hold the good stocks??? [思考]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805368149","repostId":1142925544,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142925544","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627787240,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1142925544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-01 11:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142925544","media":"Barron's","summary":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970","content":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.<blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的季节”，乐队高唱着 20 世纪 70 年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆起在海滩或烧烤旁的美好时光。当时没有必要提醒任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.<blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔 (Stephen Suttmeier) 编制的 1928 年数据，八月的到来也意味着股市进入了历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现，标准普尔 500 指数在 8 月、9 月和 10 月的平均回报率为 0.03%，这是该大型股基准指数一年中最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们是唯一平均亏损的三个月时期。</blockquote> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.<blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7 月份标普500的平均回报率为 1.58%，其中 59.1% 的时间为正面结果，而 9 月份的平均回报率为负 1.03%，不到一半的时间（即 45%）以正面结果结束。</blockquote> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.<blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。据道琼斯统计专家称，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，是自 2018 年 9 月以来最长的连涨。在此期间，其累计上涨18.34%。</blockquote> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”<blockquote>8 月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为 0.70%，阳性结果率为 58.1%，标志着从 “夏季撕裂 ”到 “秋季下跌 ”的过渡。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.<blockquote>Suttmeier 发现，毫不奇怪，8 月至 10 月期间的滞后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据 1992 年的记录，继 4 月至 7 月期间波动性相对较低之后，ECBOE 波动率指数 (VIX) 在那几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.<blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是序幕，如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性动荡时期，那么 Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以 38 美元的价格出售了 5500 万股股票。在这个过程中，它给所有进入IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.<blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一个要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期的 38-42 美元范围的低端。他们的价格在第一天交易中下跌了8.4%，尽管他们在周五有所回升。截至周末，持有 Robinhood IPO 的买家下跌了 7.5%。</blockquote> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.<blockquote>公司联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔-特涅夫（Vladimir Tenev）和首席创意官拜朱-巴特（Baiju Bhatt）都在高价抛售，他们在首次公开募股中分别抛售了 125 万股股票。正如我杰出的前任艾伦-阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢指出的那样，卖出股票有很多很好的理由，但预期股价上涨并不是其中之一。鉴于富裕的所有者有能力通过廉价借款来将其资产货币化，而且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未如此真实。</blockquote> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，Tenev 和 Bhatt 仍然持有 Robinhood 的重大股份。Asour 的同事 Avi Salzman 报道称，这些股票按首次发行价计算价值 25 亿美元，Tenev 和 Bhatt 保留投票控制权。如果股价达到 300 美元，两人还可以获得 Tenev 价值高达 67 亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt 价值高达 40 亿美元的股票奖励，或者接近众所周知的十袋大亨。</blockquote> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”<blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪，美国工人的平均年薪降至 34,248 美元。正如喜剧演员雅科夫-斯米尔诺夫（Yakov Smirnoff）喜欢说的那样：“多么美好的国家啊!”</blockquote> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.<blockquote>这些工人的情况将是定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.<blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测集中在增加 90 万人左右。Jefferies 经济学家 Aneta Markowska 和 Thomas Simons 估计，这一增幅可能会超过人们期待已久的 100 万大关；他们预测120万。</blockquote> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)<blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有争议的问题。(有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事）。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-08-01 11:07\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.<blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的季节”，乐队高唱着 20 世纪 70 年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆起在海滩或烧烤旁的美好时光。当时没有必要提醒任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.<blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔 (Stephen Suttmeier) 编制的 1928 年数据，八月的到来也意味着股市进入了历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现，标准普尔 500 指数在 8 月、9 月和 10 月的平均回报率为 0.03%，这是该大型股基准指数一年中最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们是唯一平均亏损的三个月时期。</blockquote> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.<blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7 月份标普500的平均回报率为 1.58%，其中 59.1% 的时间为正面结果，而 9 月份的平均回报率为负 1.03%，不到一半的时间（即 45%）以正面结果结束。</blockquote> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.<blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。据道琼斯统计专家称，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，是自 2018 年 9 月以来最长的连涨。在此期间，其累计上涨18.34%。</blockquote> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”<blockquote>8 月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为 0.70%，阳性结果率为 58.1%，标志着从 “夏季撕裂 ”到 “秋季下跌 ”的过渡。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.<blockquote>Suttmeier 发现，毫不奇怪，8 月至 10 月期间的滞后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据 1992 年的记录，继 4 月至 7 月期间波动性相对较低之后，ECBOE 波动率指数 (VIX) 在那几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.<blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是序幕，如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性动荡时期，那么 Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以 38 美元的价格出售了 5500 万股股票。在这个过程中，它给所有进入IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.<blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一个要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期的 38-42 美元范围的低端。他们的价格在第一天交易中下跌了8.4%，尽管他们在周五有所回升。截至周末，持有 Robinhood IPO 的买家下跌了 7.5%。</blockquote> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.<blockquote>公司联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔-特涅夫（Vladimir Tenev）和首席创意官拜朱-巴特（Baiju Bhatt）都在高价抛售，他们在首次公开募股中分别抛售了 125 万股股票。正如我杰出的前任艾伦-阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢指出的那样，卖出股票有很多很好的理由，但预期股价上涨并不是其中之一。鉴于富裕的所有者有能力通过廉价借款来将其资产货币化，而且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未如此真实。</blockquote> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，Tenev 和 Bhatt 仍然持有 Robinhood 的重大股份。Asour 的同事 Avi Salzman 报道称，这些股票按首次发行价计算价值 25 亿美元，Tenev 和 Bhatt 保留投票控制权。如果股价达到 300 美元，两人还可以获得 Tenev 价值高达 67 亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt 价值高达 40 亿美元的股票奖励，或者接近众所周知的十袋大亨。</blockquote> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”<blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪，美国工人的平均年薪降至 34,248 美元。正如喜剧演员雅科夫-斯米尔诺夫（Yakov Smirnoff）喜欢说的那样：“多么美好的国家啊!”</blockquote> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.<blockquote>这些工人的情况将是定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.<blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测集中在增加 90 万人左右。Jefferies 经济学家 Aneta Markowska 和 Thomas Simons 估计，这一增幅可能会超过人们期待已久的 100 万大关；他们预测120万。</blockquote> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)<blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有争议的问题。(有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事）。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142925544","content_text":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.\nBut the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.\nAugust actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.\nThis July did even better than the norm, with the S&P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.\nAugust’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”\nNot surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.\nPast isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.\nThe company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.\nAmong those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.\nTo be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.\nBut in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”\nHow those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.\nEconomists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.\nMarkowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":805385855,"gmtCreate":1627861220677,"gmtModify":1631888426579,"author":{"id":"3561472805649521","authorId":"3561472805649521","name":"hlw8888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ac2fb959ae09e12e50b3a31148fe95a","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3561472805649521","idStr":"3561472805649521"},"htmlText":"beware or buy and hold the good stocks???&nbsp;[思考]&nbsp;","listText":"beware or buy and hold the good stocks???&nbsp;[思考]&nbsp;","text":"beware or buy and hold the good stocks??? [思考]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805385855","repostId":1142925544,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142925544","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627787240,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1142925544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-01 11:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142925544","media":"Barron's","summary":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970","content":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.<blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的季节”，乐队高唱着 20 世纪 70 年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆起在海滩或烧烤旁的美好时光。当时没有必要提醒任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.<blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔 (Stephen Suttmeier) 编制的 1928 年数据，八月的到来也意味着股市进入了历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现，标准普尔 500 指数在 8 月、9 月和 10 月的平均回报率为 0.03%，这是该大型股基准指数一年中最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们是唯一平均亏损的三个月时期。</blockquote> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.<blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7 月份标普500的平均回报率为 1.58%，其中 59.1% 的时间为正面结果，而 9 月份的平均回报率为负 1.03%，不到一半的时间（即 45%）以正面结果结束。</blockquote> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.<blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。据道琼斯统计专家称，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，是自 2018 年 9 月以来最长的连涨。在此期间，其累计上涨18.34%。</blockquote> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”<blockquote>8 月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为 0.70%，阳性结果率为 58.1%，标志着从 “夏季撕裂 ”到 “秋季下跌 ”的过渡。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.<blockquote>Suttmeier 发现，毫不奇怪，8 月至 10 月期间的滞后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据 1992 年的记录，继 4 月至 7 月期间波动性相对较低之后，ECBOE 波动率指数 (VIX) 在那几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.<blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是序幕，如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性动荡时期，那么 Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以 38 美元的价格出售了 5500 万股股票。在这个过程中，它给所有进入IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.<blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一个要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期的 38-42 美元范围的低端。他们的价格在第一天交易中下跌了8.4%，尽管他们在周五有所回升。截至周末，持有 Robinhood IPO 的买家下跌了 7.5%。</blockquote> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.<blockquote>公司联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔-特涅夫（Vladimir Tenev）和首席创意官拜朱-巴特（Baiju Bhatt）都在高价抛售，他们在首次公开募股中分别抛售了 125 万股股票。正如我杰出的前任艾伦-阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢指出的那样，卖出股票有很多很好的理由，但预期股价上涨并不是其中之一。鉴于富裕的所有者有能力通过廉价借款来将其资产货币化，而且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未如此真实。</blockquote> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，Tenev 和 Bhatt 仍然持有 Robinhood 的重大股份。Asour 的同事 Avi Salzman 报道称，这些股票按首次发行价计算价值 25 亿美元，Tenev 和 Bhatt 保留投票控制权。如果股价达到 300 美元，两人还可以获得 Tenev 价值高达 67 亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt 价值高达 40 亿美元的股票奖励，或者接近众所周知的十袋大亨。</blockquote> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”<blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪，美国工人的平均年薪降至 34,248 美元。正如喜剧演员雅科夫-斯米尔诺夫（Yakov Smirnoff）喜欢说的那样：“多么美好的国家啊!”</blockquote> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.<blockquote>这些工人的情况将是定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.<blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测集中在增加 90 万人左右。Jefferies 经济学家 Aneta Markowska 和 Thomas Simons 估计，这一增幅可能会超过人们期待已久的 100 万大关；他们预测120万。</blockquote> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)<blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有争议的问题。(有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事）。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-08-01 11:07\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.<blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的季节”，乐队高唱着 20 世纪 70 年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆起在海滩或烧烤旁的美好时光。当时没有必要提醒任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.<blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔 (Stephen Suttmeier) 编制的 1928 年数据，八月的到来也意味着股市进入了历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现，标准普尔 500 指数在 8 月、9 月和 10 月的平均回报率为 0.03%，这是该大型股基准指数一年中最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们是唯一平均亏损的三个月时期。</blockquote> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.<blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7 月份标普500的平均回报率为 1.58%，其中 59.1% 的时间为正面结果，而 9 月份的平均回报率为负 1.03%，不到一半的时间（即 45%）以正面结果结束。</blockquote> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.<blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。据道琼斯统计专家称，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，是自 2018 年 9 月以来最长的连涨。在此期间，其累计上涨18.34%。</blockquote> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”<blockquote>8 月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为 0.70%，阳性结果率为 58.1%，标志着从 “夏季撕裂 ”到 “秋季下跌 ”的过渡。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.<blockquote>Suttmeier 发现，毫不奇怪，8 月至 10 月期间的滞后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据 1992 年的记录，继 4 月至 7 月期间波动性相对较低之后，ECBOE 波动率指数 (VIX) 在那几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.<blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是序幕，如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性动荡时期，那么 Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以 38 美元的价格出售了 5500 万股股票。在这个过程中，它给所有进入IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.<blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一个要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期的 38-42 美元范围的低端。他们的价格在第一天交易中下跌了8.4%，尽管他们在周五有所回升。截至周末，持有 Robinhood IPO 的买家下跌了 7.5%。</blockquote> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.<blockquote>公司联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔-特涅夫（Vladimir Tenev）和首席创意官拜朱-巴特（Baiju Bhatt）都在高价抛售，他们在首次公开募股中分别抛售了 125 万股股票。正如我杰出的前任艾伦-阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢指出的那样，卖出股票有很多很好的理由，但预期股价上涨并不是其中之一。鉴于富裕的所有者有能力通过廉价借款来将其资产货币化，而且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未如此真实。</blockquote> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，Tenev 和 Bhatt 仍然持有 Robinhood 的重大股份。Asour 的同事 Avi Salzman 报道称，这些股票按首次发行价计算价值 25 亿美元，Tenev 和 Bhatt 保留投票控制权。如果股价达到 300 美元，两人还可以获得 Tenev 价值高达 67 亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt 价值高达 40 亿美元的股票奖励，或者接近众所周知的十袋大亨。</blockquote> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”<blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪，美国工人的平均年薪降至 34,248 美元。正如喜剧演员雅科夫-斯米尔诺夫（Yakov Smirnoff）喜欢说的那样：“多么美好的国家啊!”</blockquote> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.<blockquote>这些工人的情况将是定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.<blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测集中在增加 90 万人左右。Jefferies 经济学家 Aneta Markowska 和 Thomas Simons 估计，这一增幅可能会超过人们期待已久的 100 万大关；他们预测120万。</blockquote> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)<blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有争议的问题。(有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事）。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142925544","content_text":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.\nBut the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.\nAugust actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.\nThis July did even better than the norm, with the S&P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.\nAugust’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”\nNot surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.\nPast isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.\nThe company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.\nAmong those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.\nTo be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.\nBut in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”\nHow those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.\nEconomists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.\nMarkowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":805386384,"gmtCreate":1627861130848,"gmtModify":1633755944701,"author":{"id":"3563581390514944","authorId":"3563581390514944","name":"NRN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3561ad0f76bae7ec1e64062bc70f0207","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3563581390514944","idStr":"3563581390514944"},"htmlText":"Be greedy when others are fearful","listText":"Be greedy when others are fearful","text":"Be greedy when others are fearful","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805386384","repostId":1142925544,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142925544","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627787240,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1142925544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-01 11:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142925544","media":"Barron's","summary":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970","content":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.<blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的季节”，乐队高唱着 20 世纪 70 年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆起在海滩或烧烤旁的美好时光。当时没有必要提醒任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.<blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔 (Stephen Suttmeier) 编制的 1928 年数据，八月的到来也意味着股市进入了历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现，标准普尔 500 指数在 8 月、9 月和 10 月的平均回报率为 0.03%，这是该大型股基准指数一年中最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们是唯一平均亏损的三个月时期。</blockquote> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.<blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7 月份标普500的平均回报率为 1.58%，其中 59.1% 的时间为正面结果，而 9 月份的平均回报率为负 1.03%，不到一半的时间（即 45%）以正面结果结束。</blockquote> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.<blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。据道琼斯统计专家称，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，是自 2018 年 9 月以来最长的连涨。在此期间，其累计上涨18.34%。</blockquote> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”<blockquote>8 月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为 0.70%，阳性结果率为 58.1%，标志着从 “夏季撕裂 ”到 “秋季下跌 ”的过渡。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.<blockquote>Suttmeier 发现，毫不奇怪，8 月至 10 月期间的滞后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据 1992 年的记录，继 4 月至 7 月期间波动性相对较低之后，ECBOE 波动率指数 (VIX) 在那几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.<blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是序幕，如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性动荡时期，那么 Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以 38 美元的价格出售了 5500 万股股票。在这个过程中，它给所有进入IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.<blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一个要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期的 38-42 美元范围的低端。他们的价格在第一天交易中下跌了8.4%，尽管他们在周五有所回升。截至周末，持有 Robinhood IPO 的买家下跌了 7.5%。</blockquote> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.<blockquote>公司联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔-特涅夫（Vladimir Tenev）和首席创意官拜朱-巴特（Baiju Bhatt）都在高价抛售，他们在首次公开募股中分别抛售了 125 万股股票。正如我杰出的前任艾伦-阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢指出的那样，卖出股票有很多很好的理由，但预期股价上涨并不是其中之一。鉴于富裕的所有者有能力通过廉价借款来将其资产货币化，而且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未如此真实。</blockquote> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，Tenev 和 Bhatt 仍然持有 Robinhood 的重大股份。Asour 的同事 Avi Salzman 报道称，这些股票按首次发行价计算价值 25 亿美元，Tenev 和 Bhatt 保留投票控制权。如果股价达到 300 美元，两人还可以获得 Tenev 价值高达 67 亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt 价值高达 40 亿美元的股票奖励，或者接近众所周知的十袋大亨。</blockquote> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”<blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪，美国工人的平均年薪降至 34,248 美元。正如喜剧演员雅科夫-斯米尔诺夫（Yakov Smirnoff）喜欢说的那样：“多么美好的国家啊!”</blockquote> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.<blockquote>这些工人的情况将是定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.<blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测集中在增加 90 万人左右。Jefferies 经济学家 Aneta Markowska 和 Thomas Simons 估计，这一增幅可能会超过人们期待已久的 100 万大关；他们预测120万。</blockquote> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)<blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有争议的问题。(有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事）。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-08-01 11:07\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.<blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的季节”，乐队高唱着 20 世纪 70 年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆起在海滩或烧烤旁的美好时光。当时没有必要提醒任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.<blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔 (Stephen Suttmeier) 编制的 1928 年数据，八月的到来也意味着股市进入了历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现，标准普尔 500 指数在 8 月、9 月和 10 月的平均回报率为 0.03%，这是该大型股基准指数一年中最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们是唯一平均亏损的三个月时期。</blockquote> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.<blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7 月份标普500的平均回报率为 1.58%，其中 59.1% 的时间为正面结果，而 9 月份的平均回报率为负 1.03%，不到一半的时间（即 45%）以正面结果结束。</blockquote> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.<blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。据道琼斯统计专家称，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，是自 2018 年 9 月以来最长的连涨。在此期间，其累计上涨18.34%。</blockquote> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”<blockquote>8 月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为 0.70%，阳性结果率为 58.1%，标志着从 “夏季撕裂 ”到 “秋季下跌 ”的过渡。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.<blockquote>Suttmeier 发现，毫不奇怪，8 月至 10 月期间的滞后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据 1992 年的记录，继 4 月至 7 月期间波动性相对较低之后，ECBOE 波动率指数 (VIX) 在那几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.<blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是序幕，如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性动荡时期，那么 Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以 38 美元的价格出售了 5500 万股股票。在这个过程中，它给所有进入IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.<blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一个要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期的 38-42 美元范围的低端。他们的价格在第一天交易中下跌了8.4%，尽管他们在周五有所回升。截至周末，持有 Robinhood IPO 的买家下跌了 7.5%。</blockquote> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.<blockquote>公司联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔-特涅夫（Vladimir Tenev）和首席创意官拜朱-巴特（Baiju Bhatt）都在高价抛售，他们在首次公开募股中分别抛售了 125 万股股票。正如我杰出的前任艾伦-阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢指出的那样，卖出股票有很多很好的理由，但预期股价上涨并不是其中之一。鉴于富裕的所有者有能力通过廉价借款来将其资产货币化，而且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未如此真实。</blockquote> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，Tenev 和 Bhatt 仍然持有 Robinhood 的重大股份。Asour 的同事 Avi Salzman 报道称，这些股票按首次发行价计算价值 25 亿美元，Tenev 和 Bhatt 保留投票控制权。如果股价达到 300 美元，两人还可以获得 Tenev 价值高达 67 亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt 价值高达 40 亿美元的股票奖励，或者接近众所周知的十袋大亨。</blockquote> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”<blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪，美国工人的平均年薪降至 34,248 美元。正如喜剧演员雅科夫-斯米尔诺夫（Yakov Smirnoff）喜欢说的那样：“多么美好的国家啊!”</blockquote> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.<blockquote>这些工人的情况将是定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.<blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测集中在增加 90 万人左右。Jefferies 经济学家 Aneta Markowska 和 Thomas Simons 估计，这一增幅可能会超过人们期待已久的 100 万大关；他们预测120万。</blockquote> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)<blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有争议的问题。(有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事）。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142925544","content_text":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.\nBut the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.\nAugust actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.\nThis July did even better than the norm, with the S&P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.\nAugust’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”\nNot surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.\nPast isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.\nThe company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.\nAmong those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.\nTo be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.\nBut in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”\nHow those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.\nEconomists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.\nMarkowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":805388232,"gmtCreate":1627861110526,"gmtModify":1633755945272,"author":{"id":"3560241002253187","authorId":"3560241002253187","name":"CL777","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9aef3dd830373a0427a3447b1b564e3","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3560241002253187","idStr":"3560241002253187"},"htmlText":"More volatility ahead?","listText":"More volatility ahead?","text":"More volatility ahead?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805388232","repostId":1142925544,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142925544","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627787240,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1142925544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-01 11:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142925544","media":"Barron's","summary":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970","content":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.<blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的季节”，乐队高唱着 20 世纪 70 年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆起在海滩或烧烤旁的美好时光。当时没有必要提醒任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.<blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔 (Stephen Suttmeier) 编制的 1928 年数据，八月的到来也意味着股市进入了历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现，标准普尔 500 指数在 8 月、9 月和 10 月的平均回报率为 0.03%，这是该大型股基准指数一年中最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们是唯一平均亏损的三个月时期。</blockquote> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.<blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7 月份标普500的平均回报率为 1.58%，其中 59.1% 的时间为正面结果，而 9 月份的平均回报率为负 1.03%，不到一半的时间（即 45%）以正面结果结束。</blockquote> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.<blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。据道琼斯统计专家称，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，是自 2018 年 9 月以来最长的连涨。在此期间，其累计上涨18.34%。</blockquote> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”<blockquote>8 月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为 0.70%，阳性结果率为 58.1%，标志着从 “夏季撕裂 ”到 “秋季下跌 ”的过渡。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.<blockquote>Suttmeier 发现，毫不奇怪，8 月至 10 月期间的滞后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据 1992 年的记录，继 4 月至 7 月期间波动性相对较低之后，ECBOE 波动率指数 (VIX) 在那几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.<blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是序幕，如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性动荡时期，那么 Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以 38 美元的价格出售了 5500 万股股票。在这个过程中，它给所有进入IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.<blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一个要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期的 38-42 美元范围的低端。他们的价格在第一天交易中下跌了8.4%，尽管他们在周五有所回升。截至周末，持有 Robinhood IPO 的买家下跌了 7.5%。</blockquote> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.<blockquote>公司联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔-特涅夫（Vladimir Tenev）和首席创意官拜朱-巴特（Baiju Bhatt）都在高价抛售，他们在首次公开募股中分别抛售了 125 万股股票。正如我杰出的前任艾伦-阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢指出的那样，卖出股票有很多很好的理由，但预期股价上涨并不是其中之一。鉴于富裕的所有者有能力通过廉价借款来将其资产货币化，而且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未如此真实。</blockquote> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，Tenev 和 Bhatt 仍然持有 Robinhood 的重大股份。Asour 的同事 Avi Salzman 报道称，这些股票按首次发行价计算价值 25 亿美元，Tenev 和 Bhatt 保留投票控制权。如果股价达到 300 美元，两人还可以获得 Tenev 价值高达 67 亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt 价值高达 40 亿美元的股票奖励，或者接近众所周知的十袋大亨。</blockquote> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”<blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪，美国工人的平均年薪降至 34,248 美元。正如喜剧演员雅科夫-斯米尔诺夫（Yakov Smirnoff）喜欢说的那样：“多么美好的国家啊!”</blockquote> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.<blockquote>这些工人的情况将是定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.<blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测集中在增加 90 万人左右。Jefferies 经济学家 Aneta Markowska 和 Thomas Simons 估计，这一增幅可能会超过人们期待已久的 100 万大关；他们预测120万。</blockquote> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)<blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有争议的问题。(有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事）。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-08-01 11:07\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.<blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的季节”，乐队高唱着 20 世纪 70 年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆起在海滩或烧烤旁的美好时光。当时没有必要提醒任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.<blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔 (Stephen Suttmeier) 编制的 1928 年数据，八月的到来也意味着股市进入了历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现，标准普尔 500 指数在 8 月、9 月和 10 月的平均回报率为 0.03%，这是该大型股基准指数一年中最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们是唯一平均亏损的三个月时期。</blockquote> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.<blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7 月份标普500的平均回报率为 1.58%，其中 59.1% 的时间为正面结果，而 9 月份的平均回报率为负 1.03%，不到一半的时间（即 45%）以正面结果结束。</blockquote> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.<blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。据道琼斯统计专家称，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，是自 2018 年 9 月以来最长的连涨。在此期间，其累计上涨18.34%。</blockquote> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”<blockquote>8 月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为 0.70%，阳性结果率为 58.1%，标志着从 “夏季撕裂 ”到 “秋季下跌 ”的过渡。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.<blockquote>Suttmeier 发现，毫不奇怪，8 月至 10 月期间的滞后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据 1992 年的记录，继 4 月至 7 月期间波动性相对较低之后，ECBOE 波动率指数 (VIX) 在那几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.<blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是序幕，如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性动荡时期，那么 Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以 38 美元的价格出售了 5500 万股股票。在这个过程中，它给所有进入IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.<blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一个要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期的 38-42 美元范围的低端。他们的价格在第一天交易中下跌了8.4%，尽管他们在周五有所回升。截至周末，持有 Robinhood IPO 的买家下跌了 7.5%。</blockquote> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.<blockquote>公司联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔-特涅夫（Vladimir Tenev）和首席创意官拜朱-巴特（Baiju Bhatt）都在高价抛售，他们在首次公开募股中分别抛售了 125 万股股票。正如我杰出的前任艾伦-阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢指出的那样，卖出股票有很多很好的理由，但预期股价上涨并不是其中之一。鉴于富裕的所有者有能力通过廉价借款来将其资产货币化，而且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未如此真实。</blockquote> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，Tenev 和 Bhatt 仍然持有 Robinhood 的重大股份。Asour 的同事 Avi Salzman 报道称，这些股票按首次发行价计算价值 25 亿美元，Tenev 和 Bhatt 保留投票控制权。如果股价达到 300 美元，两人还可以获得 Tenev 价值高达 67 亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt 价值高达 40 亿美元的股票奖励，或者接近众所周知的十袋大亨。</blockquote> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”<blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪，美国工人的平均年薪降至 34,248 美元。正如喜剧演员雅科夫-斯米尔诺夫（Yakov Smirnoff）喜欢说的那样：“多么美好的国家啊!”</blockquote> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.<blockquote>这些工人的情况将是定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.<blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测集中在增加 90 万人左右。Jefferies 经济学家 Aneta Markowska 和 Thomas Simons 估计，这一增幅可能会超过人们期待已久的 100 万大关；他们预测120万。</blockquote> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)<blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有争议的问题。(有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事）。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142925544","content_text":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.\nBut the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.\nAugust actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.\nThis July did even better than the norm, with the S&P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.\nAugust’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”\nNot surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.\nPast isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.\nThe company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.\nAmong those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.\nTo be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.\nBut in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”\nHow those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.\nEconomists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.\nMarkowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5397311,"gmtCreate":1627861482906,"gmtModify":1635162496622,"authorId":3569318025811476,"author":{"id":3569318025811476,"idStr":"3569318025811476","authorId":3569318025811476,"name":"LeonardKSW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eeba92ccfc8a91444aa3e36de4a39425","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":805388232,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"wow","text":"wow","html":"wow"},{"id":5397336,"gmtCreate":1627861705736,"gmtModify":1635162494442,"authorId":3576273819527804,"author":{"id":3576273819527804,"idStr":"3576273819527804","authorId":3576273819527804,"name":"Felicialim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93b9dd65b95fb4d9322224d3c233d6f4","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":805388232,"type":1,"supId":5397311,"prevId":0,"content":"It appears so","text":"It appears so","html":"It appears so"},{"id":5397581,"gmtCreate":1627862846992,"gmtModify":1635162466466,"authorId":3560241002253187,"author":{"id":3560241002253187,"idStr":"3560241002253187","authorId":3560241002253187,"name":"CL777","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9aef3dd830373a0427a3447b1b564e3","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":805388232,"type":1,"supId":5397311,"prevId":0,"content":"Yup","text":"Yup","html":"Yup"},{"id":5398554,"gmtCreate":1627867424481,"gmtModify":1635162365657,"authorId":3563253186452228,"author":{"id":3563253186452228,"idStr":"3563253186452228","authorId":3563253186452228,"name":"Sheryl85","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7a9183a9332355f694e2f0af874b0ed","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":805388232,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"yea","text":"yea","html":"yea"},{"id":5405353,"gmtCreate":1627917760501,"gmtModify":1635161818240,"authorId":3570923041276809,"author":{"id":3570923041276809,"idStr":"3570923041276809","authorId":3570923041276809,"name":"potatochip","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279b09d8c5dbf0fd92a959709ef9b5ff","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":805388232,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[Drowsy]","text":"[Drowsy]","html":"[Drowsy]"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":805317926,"gmtCreate":1627860840565,"gmtModify":1631893262493,"author":{"id":"3581767141779758","authorId":"3581767141779758","name":"Monching","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/815eb9eaaae7adc0b9e3fefbb34eea00","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3581767141779758","idStr":"3581767141779758"},"htmlText":"Is it because of the&nbsp;ghost month?","listText":"Is it because of the&nbsp;ghost month?","text":"Is it because of the ghost month?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805317926","repostId":1142925544,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142925544","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627787240,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1142925544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-01 11:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142925544","media":"Barron's","summary":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970","content":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.<blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的季节”，乐队高唱着 20 世纪 70 年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆起在海滩或烧烤旁的美好时光。当时没有必要提醒任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.<blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔 (Stephen Suttmeier) 编制的 1928 年数据，八月的到来也意味着股市进入了历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现，标准普尔 500 指数在 8 月、9 月和 10 月的平均回报率为 0.03%，这是该大型股基准指数一年中最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们是唯一平均亏损的三个月时期。</blockquote> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.<blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7 月份标普500的平均回报率为 1.58%，其中 59.1% 的时间为正面结果，而 9 月份的平均回报率为负 1.03%，不到一半的时间（即 45%）以正面结果结束。</blockquote> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.<blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。据道琼斯统计专家称，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，是自 2018 年 9 月以来最长的连涨。在此期间，其累计上涨18.34%。</blockquote> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”<blockquote>8 月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为 0.70%，阳性结果率为 58.1%，标志着从 “夏季撕裂 ”到 “秋季下跌 ”的过渡。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.<blockquote>Suttmeier 发现，毫不奇怪，8 月至 10 月期间的滞后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据 1992 年的记录，继 4 月至 7 月期间波动性相对较低之后，ECBOE 波动率指数 (VIX) 在那几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.<blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是序幕，如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性动荡时期，那么 Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以 38 美元的价格出售了 5500 万股股票。在这个过程中，它给所有进入IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.<blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一个要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期的 38-42 美元范围的低端。他们的价格在第一天交易中下跌了8.4%，尽管他们在周五有所回升。截至周末，持有 Robinhood IPO 的买家下跌了 7.5%。</blockquote> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.<blockquote>公司联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔-特涅夫（Vladimir Tenev）和首席创意官拜朱-巴特（Baiju Bhatt）都在高价抛售，他们在首次公开募股中分别抛售了 125 万股股票。正如我杰出的前任艾伦-阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢指出的那样，卖出股票有很多很好的理由，但预期股价上涨并不是其中之一。鉴于富裕的所有者有能力通过廉价借款来将其资产货币化，而且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未如此真实。</blockquote> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，Tenev 和 Bhatt 仍然持有 Robinhood 的重大股份。Asour 的同事 Avi Salzman 报道称，这些股票按首次发行价计算价值 25 亿美元，Tenev 和 Bhatt 保留投票控制权。如果股价达到 300 美元，两人还可以获得 Tenev 价值高达 67 亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt 价值高达 40 亿美元的股票奖励，或者接近众所周知的十袋大亨。</blockquote> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”<blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪，美国工人的平均年薪降至 34,248 美元。正如喜剧演员雅科夫-斯米尔诺夫（Yakov Smirnoff）喜欢说的那样：“多么美好的国家啊!”</blockquote> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.<blockquote>这些工人的情况将是定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.<blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测集中在增加 90 万人左右。Jefferies 经济学家 Aneta Markowska 和 Thomas Simons 估计，这一增幅可能会超过人们期待已久的 100 万大关；他们预测120万。</blockquote> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)<blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有争议的问题。(有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事）。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-08-01 11:07\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.<blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的季节”，乐队高唱着 20 世纪 70 年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆起在海滩或烧烤旁的美好时光。当时没有必要提醒任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.<blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔 (Stephen Suttmeier) 编制的 1928 年数据，八月的到来也意味着股市进入了历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现，标准普尔 500 指数在 8 月、9 月和 10 月的平均回报率为 0.03%，这是该大型股基准指数一年中最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们是唯一平均亏损的三个月时期。</blockquote> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.<blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7 月份标普500的平均回报率为 1.58%，其中 59.1% 的时间为正面结果，而 9 月份的平均回报率为负 1.03%，不到一半的时间（即 45%）以正面结果结束。</blockquote> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.<blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。据道琼斯统计专家称，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，是自 2018 年 9 月以来最长的连涨。在此期间，其累计上涨18.34%。</blockquote> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”<blockquote>8 月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为 0.70%，阳性结果率为 58.1%，标志着从 “夏季撕裂 ”到 “秋季下跌 ”的过渡。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.<blockquote>Suttmeier 发现，毫不奇怪，8 月至 10 月期间的滞后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据 1992 年的记录，继 4 月至 7 月期间波动性相对较低之后，ECBOE 波动率指数 (VIX) 在那几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.<blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是序幕，如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性动荡时期，那么 Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以 38 美元的价格出售了 5500 万股股票。在这个过程中，它给所有进入IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.<blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一个要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期的 38-42 美元范围的低端。他们的价格在第一天交易中下跌了8.4%，尽管他们在周五有所回升。截至周末，持有 Robinhood IPO 的买家下跌了 7.5%。</blockquote> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.<blockquote>公司联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔-特涅夫（Vladimir Tenev）和首席创意官拜朱-巴特（Baiju Bhatt）都在高价抛售，他们在首次公开募股中分别抛售了 125 万股股票。正如我杰出的前任艾伦-阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢指出的那样，卖出股票有很多很好的理由，但预期股价上涨并不是其中之一。鉴于富裕的所有者有能力通过廉价借款来将其资产货币化，而且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未如此真实。</blockquote> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，Tenev 和 Bhatt 仍然持有 Robinhood 的重大股份。Asour 的同事 Avi Salzman 报道称，这些股票按首次发行价计算价值 25 亿美元，Tenev 和 Bhatt 保留投票控制权。如果股价达到 300 美元，两人还可以获得 Tenev 价值高达 67 亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt 价值高达 40 亿美元的股票奖励，或者接近众所周知的十袋大亨。</blockquote> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”<blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪，美国工人的平均年薪降至 34,248 美元。正如喜剧演员雅科夫-斯米尔诺夫（Yakov Smirnoff）喜欢说的那样：“多么美好的国家啊!”</blockquote> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.<blockquote>这些工人的情况将是定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.<blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测集中在增加 90 万人左右。Jefferies 经济学家 Aneta Markowska 和 Thomas Simons 估计，这一增幅可能会超过人们期待已久的 100 万大关；他们预测120万。</blockquote> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)<blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有争议的问题。(有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事）。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142925544","content_text":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.\nBut the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.\nAugust actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.\nThis July did even better than the norm, with the S&P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.\nAugust’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”\nNot surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.\nPast isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.\nThe company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.\nAmong those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.\nTo be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.\nBut in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”\nHow those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.\nEconomists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.\nMarkowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5398369,"gmtCreate":1627866585777,"gmtModify":1631893262494,"authorId":3579342217954724,"author":{"id":3579342217954724,"idStr":"3579342217954724","authorId":3579342217954724,"name":"手可摘棉花","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb5d81ca4420febc27175fcd21eb90b2","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":805317926,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[Happy]","text":"[Happy]","html":"[Happy]"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":805317004,"gmtCreate":1627860835408,"gmtModify":1633755950829,"author":{"id":"3582972798563668","authorId":"3582972798563668","name":"JS64","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad519f92a203874c41d7d11080b13d18","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3582972798563668","idStr":"3582972798563668"},"htmlText":"Zzz","listText":"Zzz","text":"Zzz","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805317004","repostId":1142925544,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142925544","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627787240,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1142925544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-01 11:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142925544","media":"Barron's","summary":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970","content":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.<blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的季节”，乐队高唱着 20 世纪 70 年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆起在海滩或烧烤旁的美好时光。当时没有必要提醒任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.<blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔 (Stephen Suttmeier) 编制的 1928 年数据，八月的到来也意味着股市进入了历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现，标准普尔 500 指数在 8 月、9 月和 10 月的平均回报率为 0.03%，这是该大型股基准指数一年中最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们是唯一平均亏损的三个月时期。</blockquote> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.<blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7 月份标普500的平均回报率为 1.58%，其中 59.1% 的时间为正面结果，而 9 月份的平均回报率为负 1.03%，不到一半的时间（即 45%）以正面结果结束。</blockquote> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.<blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。据道琼斯统计专家称，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，是自 2018 年 9 月以来最长的连涨。在此期间，其累计上涨18.34%。</blockquote> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”<blockquote>8 月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为 0.70%，阳性结果率为 58.1%，标志着从 “夏季撕裂 ”到 “秋季下跌 ”的过渡。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.<blockquote>Suttmeier 发现，毫不奇怪，8 月至 10 月期间的滞后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据 1992 年的记录，继 4 月至 7 月期间波动性相对较低之后，ECBOE 波动率指数 (VIX) 在那几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.<blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是序幕，如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性动荡时期，那么 Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以 38 美元的价格出售了 5500 万股股票。在这个过程中，它给所有进入IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.<blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一个要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期的 38-42 美元范围的低端。他们的价格在第一天交易中下跌了8.4%，尽管他们在周五有所回升。截至周末，持有 Robinhood IPO 的买家下跌了 7.5%。</blockquote> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.<blockquote>公司联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔-特涅夫（Vladimir Tenev）和首席创意官拜朱-巴特（Baiju Bhatt）都在高价抛售，他们在首次公开募股中分别抛售了 125 万股股票。正如我杰出的前任艾伦-阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢指出的那样，卖出股票有很多很好的理由，但预期股价上涨并不是其中之一。鉴于富裕的所有者有能力通过廉价借款来将其资产货币化，而且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未如此真实。</blockquote> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，Tenev 和 Bhatt 仍然持有 Robinhood 的重大股份。Asour 的同事 Avi Salzman 报道称，这些股票按首次发行价计算价值 25 亿美元，Tenev 和 Bhatt 保留投票控制权。如果股价达到 300 美元，两人还可以获得 Tenev 价值高达 67 亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt 价值高达 40 亿美元的股票奖励，或者接近众所周知的十袋大亨。</blockquote> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”<blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪，美国工人的平均年薪降至 34,248 美元。正如喜剧演员雅科夫-斯米尔诺夫（Yakov Smirnoff）喜欢说的那样：“多么美好的国家啊!”</blockquote> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.<blockquote>这些工人的情况将是定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.<blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测集中在增加 90 万人左右。Jefferies 经济学家 Aneta Markowska 和 Thomas Simons 估计，这一增幅可能会超过人们期待已久的 100 万大关；他们预测120万。</blockquote> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)<blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有争议的问题。(有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事）。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-08-01 11:07\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.<blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的季节”，乐队高唱着 20 世纪 70 年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆起在海滩或烧烤旁的美好时光。当时没有必要提醒任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.<blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔 (Stephen Suttmeier) 编制的 1928 年数据，八月的到来也意味着股市进入了历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现，标准普尔 500 指数在 8 月、9 月和 10 月的平均回报率为 0.03%，这是该大型股基准指数一年中最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们是唯一平均亏损的三个月时期。</blockquote> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.<blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7 月份标普500的平均回报率为 1.58%，其中 59.1% 的时间为正面结果，而 9 月份的平均回报率为负 1.03%，不到一半的时间（即 45%）以正面结果结束。</blockquote> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.<blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。据道琼斯统计专家称，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，是自 2018 年 9 月以来最长的连涨。在此期间，其累计上涨18.34%。</blockquote> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”<blockquote>8 月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为 0.70%，阳性结果率为 58.1%，标志着从 “夏季撕裂 ”到 “秋季下跌 ”的过渡。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.<blockquote>Suttmeier 发现，毫不奇怪，8 月至 10 月期间的滞后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据 1992 年的记录，继 4 月至 7 月期间波动性相对较低之后，ECBOE 波动率指数 (VIX) 在那几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.<blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是序幕，如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性动荡时期，那么 Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以 38 美元的价格出售了 5500 万股股票。在这个过程中，它给所有进入IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.<blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一个要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期的 38-42 美元范围的低端。他们的价格在第一天交易中下跌了8.4%，尽管他们在周五有所回升。截至周末，持有 Robinhood IPO 的买家下跌了 7.5%。</blockquote> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.<blockquote>公司联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔-特涅夫（Vladimir Tenev）和首席创意官拜朱-巴特（Baiju Bhatt）都在高价抛售，他们在首次公开募股中分别抛售了 125 万股股票。正如我杰出的前任艾伦-阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢指出的那样，卖出股票有很多很好的理由，但预期股价上涨并不是其中之一。鉴于富裕的所有者有能力通过廉价借款来将其资产货币化，而且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未如此真实。</blockquote> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，Tenev 和 Bhatt 仍然持有 Robinhood 的重大股份。Asour 的同事 Avi Salzman 报道称，这些股票按首次发行价计算价值 25 亿美元，Tenev 和 Bhatt 保留投票控制权。如果股价达到 300 美元，两人还可以获得 Tenev 价值高达 67 亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt 价值高达 40 亿美元的股票奖励，或者接近众所周知的十袋大亨。</blockquote> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”<blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪，美国工人的平均年薪降至 34,248 美元。正如喜剧演员雅科夫-斯米尔诺夫（Yakov Smirnoff）喜欢说的那样：“多么美好的国家啊!”</blockquote> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.<blockquote>这些工人的情况将是定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.<blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测集中在增加 90 万人左右。Jefferies 经济学家 Aneta Markowska 和 Thomas Simons 估计，这一增幅可能会超过人们期待已久的 100 万大关；他们预测120万。</blockquote> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)<blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有争议的问题。(有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事）。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142925544","content_text":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.\nBut the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.\nAugust actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.\nThis July did even better than the norm, with the S&P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.\nAugust’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”\nNot surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.\nPast isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.\nThe company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.\nAmong those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.\nTo be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.\nBut in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”\nHow those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.\nEconomists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.\nMarkowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":805318644,"gmtCreate":1627860665688,"gmtModify":1633755955499,"author":{"id":"3583238931757961","authorId":"3583238931757961","name":"267c35e8","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3583238931757961","idStr":"3583238931757961"},"htmlText":"Hold with faith","listText":"Hold with faith","text":"Hold with faith","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805318644","repostId":1142925544,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142925544","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627787240,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1142925544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-01 11:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142925544","media":"Barron's","summary":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970","content":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.<blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的季节”，乐队高唱着 20 世纪 70 年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆起在海滩或烧烤旁的美好时光。当时没有必要提醒任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.<blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔 (Stephen Suttmeier) 编制的 1928 年数据，八月的到来也意味着股市进入了历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现，标准普尔 500 指数在 8 月、9 月和 10 月的平均回报率为 0.03%，这是该大型股基准指数一年中最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们是唯一平均亏损的三个月时期。</blockquote> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.<blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7 月份标普500的平均回报率为 1.58%，其中 59.1% 的时间为正面结果，而 9 月份的平均回报率为负 1.03%，不到一半的时间（即 45%）以正面结果结束。</blockquote> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.<blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。据道琼斯统计专家称，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，是自 2018 年 9 月以来最长的连涨。在此期间，其累计上涨18.34%。</blockquote> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”<blockquote>8 月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为 0.70%，阳性结果率为 58.1%，标志着从 “夏季撕裂 ”到 “秋季下跌 ”的过渡。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.<blockquote>Suttmeier 发现，毫不奇怪，8 月至 10 月期间的滞后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据 1992 年的记录，继 4 月至 7 月期间波动性相对较低之后，ECBOE 波动率指数 (VIX) 在那几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.<blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是序幕，如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性动荡时期，那么 Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以 38 美元的价格出售了 5500 万股股票。在这个过程中，它给所有进入IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.<blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一个要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期的 38-42 美元范围的低端。他们的价格在第一天交易中下跌了8.4%，尽管他们在周五有所回升。截至周末，持有 Robinhood IPO 的买家下跌了 7.5%。</blockquote> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.<blockquote>公司联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔-特涅夫（Vladimir Tenev）和首席创意官拜朱-巴特（Baiju Bhatt）都在高价抛售，他们在首次公开募股中分别抛售了 125 万股股票。正如我杰出的前任艾伦-阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢指出的那样，卖出股票有很多很好的理由，但预期股价上涨并不是其中之一。鉴于富裕的所有者有能力通过廉价借款来将其资产货币化，而且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未如此真实。</blockquote> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，Tenev 和 Bhatt 仍然持有 Robinhood 的重大股份。Asour 的同事 Avi Salzman 报道称，这些股票按首次发行价计算价值 25 亿美元，Tenev 和 Bhatt 保留投票控制权。如果股价达到 300 美元，两人还可以获得 Tenev 价值高达 67 亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt 价值高达 40 亿美元的股票奖励，或者接近众所周知的十袋大亨。</blockquote> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”<blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪，美国工人的平均年薪降至 34,248 美元。正如喜剧演员雅科夫-斯米尔诺夫（Yakov Smirnoff）喜欢说的那样：“多么美好的国家啊!”</blockquote> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.<blockquote>这些工人的情况将是定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.<blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测集中在增加 90 万人左右。Jefferies 经济学家 Aneta Markowska 和 Thomas Simons 估计，这一增幅可能会超过人们期待已久的 100 万大关；他们预测120万。</blockquote> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)<blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有争议的问题。(有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事）。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-08-01 11:07\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.<blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的季节”，乐队高唱着 20 世纪 70 年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆起在海滩或烧烤旁的美好时光。当时没有必要提醒任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.<blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔 (Stephen Suttmeier) 编制的 1928 年数据，八月的到来也意味着股市进入了历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现，标准普尔 500 指数在 8 月、9 月和 10 月的平均回报率为 0.03%，这是该大型股基准指数一年中最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们是唯一平均亏损的三个月时期。</blockquote> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.<blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7 月份标普500的平均回报率为 1.58%，其中 59.1% 的时间为正面结果，而 9 月份的平均回报率为负 1.03%，不到一半的时间（即 45%）以正面结果结束。</blockquote> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.<blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。据道琼斯统计专家称，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，是自 2018 年 9 月以来最长的连涨。在此期间，其累计上涨18.34%。</blockquote> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”<blockquote>8 月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为 0.70%，阳性结果率为 58.1%，标志着从 “夏季撕裂 ”到 “秋季下跌 ”的过渡。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.<blockquote>Suttmeier 发现，毫不奇怪，8 月至 10 月期间的滞后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据 1992 年的记录，继 4 月至 7 月期间波动性相对较低之后，ECBOE 波动率指数 (VIX) 在那几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.<blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是序幕，如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性动荡时期，那么 Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以 38 美元的价格出售了 5500 万股股票。在这个过程中，它给所有进入IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.<blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一个要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期的 38-42 美元范围的低端。他们的价格在第一天交易中下跌了8.4%，尽管他们在周五有所回升。截至周末，持有 Robinhood IPO 的买家下跌了 7.5%。</blockquote> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.<blockquote>公司联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔-特涅夫（Vladimir Tenev）和首席创意官拜朱-巴特（Baiju Bhatt）都在高价抛售，他们在首次公开募股中分别抛售了 125 万股股票。正如我杰出的前任艾伦-阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢指出的那样，卖出股票有很多很好的理由，但预期股价上涨并不是其中之一。鉴于富裕的所有者有能力通过廉价借款来将其资产货币化，而且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未如此真实。</blockquote> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，Tenev 和 Bhatt 仍然持有 Robinhood 的重大股份。Asour 的同事 Avi Salzman 报道称，这些股票按首次发行价计算价值 25 亿美元，Tenev 和 Bhatt 保留投票控制权。如果股价达到 300 美元，两人还可以获得 Tenev 价值高达 67 亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt 价值高达 40 亿美元的股票奖励，或者接近众所周知的十袋大亨。</blockquote> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”<blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪，美国工人的平均年薪降至 34,248 美元。正如喜剧演员雅科夫-斯米尔诺夫（Yakov Smirnoff）喜欢说的那样：“多么美好的国家啊!”</blockquote> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.<blockquote>这些工人的情况将是定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.<blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测集中在增加 90 万人左右。Jefferies 经济学家 Aneta Markowska 和 Thomas Simons 估计，这一增幅可能会超过人们期待已久的 100 万大关；他们预测120万。</blockquote> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)<blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有争议的问题。(有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事）。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142925544","content_text":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.\nBut the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.\nAugust actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.\nThis July did even better than the norm, with the S&P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.\nAugust’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”\nNot surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.\nPast isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.\nThe company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.\nAmong those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.\nTo be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.\nBut in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”\nHow those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.\nEconomists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.\nMarkowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":805318921,"gmtCreate":1627860648263,"gmtModify":1631893651461,"author":{"id":"4089073780450580","authorId":"4089073780450580","name":"CherylLeeYX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abcdd689f0ad7b35f261c6f84196a521","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"4089073780450580","idStr":"4089073780450580"},"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805318921","repostId":1142925544,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142925544","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627787240,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1142925544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-01 11:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142925544","media":"Barron's","summary":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970","content":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.<blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的季节”，乐队高唱着 20 世纪 70 年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆起在海滩或烧烤旁的美好时光。当时没有必要提醒任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.<blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔 (Stephen Suttmeier) 编制的 1928 年数据，八月的到来也意味着股市进入了历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现，标准普尔 500 指数在 8 月、9 月和 10 月的平均回报率为 0.03%，这是该大型股基准指数一年中最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们是唯一平均亏损的三个月时期。</blockquote> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.<blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7 月份标普500的平均回报率为 1.58%，其中 59.1% 的时间为正面结果，而 9 月份的平均回报率为负 1.03%，不到一半的时间（即 45%）以正面结果结束。</blockquote> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.<blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。据道琼斯统计专家称，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，是自 2018 年 9 月以来最长的连涨。在此期间，其累计上涨18.34%。</blockquote> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”<blockquote>8 月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为 0.70%，阳性结果率为 58.1%，标志着从 “夏季撕裂 ”到 “秋季下跌 ”的过渡。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.<blockquote>Suttmeier 发现，毫不奇怪，8 月至 10 月期间的滞后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据 1992 年的记录，继 4 月至 7 月期间波动性相对较低之后，ECBOE 波动率指数 (VIX) 在那几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.<blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是序幕，如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性动荡时期，那么 Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以 38 美元的价格出售了 5500 万股股票。在这个过程中，它给所有进入IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.<blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一个要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期的 38-42 美元范围的低端。他们的价格在第一天交易中下跌了8.4%，尽管他们在周五有所回升。截至周末，持有 Robinhood IPO 的买家下跌了 7.5%。</blockquote> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.<blockquote>公司联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔-特涅夫（Vladimir Tenev）和首席创意官拜朱-巴特（Baiju Bhatt）都在高价抛售，他们在首次公开募股中分别抛售了 125 万股股票。正如我杰出的前任艾伦-阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢指出的那样，卖出股票有很多很好的理由，但预期股价上涨并不是其中之一。鉴于富裕的所有者有能力通过廉价借款来将其资产货币化，而且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未如此真实。</blockquote> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，Tenev 和 Bhatt 仍然持有 Robinhood 的重大股份。Asour 的同事 Avi Salzman 报道称，这些股票按首次发行价计算价值 25 亿美元，Tenev 和 Bhatt 保留投票控制权。如果股价达到 300 美元，两人还可以获得 Tenev 价值高达 67 亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt 价值高达 40 亿美元的股票奖励，或者接近众所周知的十袋大亨。</blockquote> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”<blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪，美国工人的平均年薪降至 34,248 美元。正如喜剧演员雅科夫-斯米尔诺夫（Yakov Smirnoff）喜欢说的那样：“多么美好的国家啊!”</blockquote> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.<blockquote>这些工人的情况将是定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.<blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测集中在增加 90 万人左右。Jefferies 经济学家 Aneta Markowska 和 Thomas Simons 估计，这一增幅可能会超过人们期待已久的 100 万大关；他们预测120万。</blockquote> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)<blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有争议的问题。(有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事）。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-08-01 11:07\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.<blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的季节”，乐队高唱着 20 世纪 70 年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆起在海滩或烧烤旁的美好时光。当时没有必要提醒任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.<blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔 (Stephen Suttmeier) 编制的 1928 年数据，八月的到来也意味着股市进入了历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现，标准普尔 500 指数在 8 月、9 月和 10 月的平均回报率为 0.03%，这是该大型股基准指数一年中最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们是唯一平均亏损的三个月时期。</blockquote> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.<blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7 月份标普500的平均回报率为 1.58%，其中 59.1% 的时间为正面结果，而 9 月份的平均回报率为负 1.03%，不到一半的时间（即 45%）以正面结果结束。</blockquote> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.<blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。据道琼斯统计专家称，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，是自 2018 年 9 月以来最长的连涨。在此期间，其累计上涨18.34%。</blockquote> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”<blockquote>8 月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为 0.70%，阳性结果率为 58.1%，标志着从 “夏季撕裂 ”到 “秋季下跌 ”的过渡。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.<blockquote>Suttmeier 发现，毫不奇怪，8 月至 10 月期间的滞后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据 1992 年的记录，继 4 月至 7 月期间波动性相对较低之后，ECBOE 波动率指数 (VIX) 在那几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.<blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是序幕，如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性动荡时期，那么 Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以 38 美元的价格出售了 5500 万股股票。在这个过程中，它给所有进入IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.<blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一个要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期的 38-42 美元范围的低端。他们的价格在第一天交易中下跌了8.4%，尽管他们在周五有所回升。截至周末，持有 Robinhood IPO 的买家下跌了 7.5%。</blockquote> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.<blockquote>公司联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔-特涅夫（Vladimir Tenev）和首席创意官拜朱-巴特（Baiju Bhatt）都在高价抛售，他们在首次公开募股中分别抛售了 125 万股股票。正如我杰出的前任艾伦-阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢指出的那样，卖出股票有很多很好的理由，但预期股价上涨并不是其中之一。鉴于富裕的所有者有能力通过廉价借款来将其资产货币化，而且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未如此真实。</blockquote> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，Tenev 和 Bhatt 仍然持有 Robinhood 的重大股份。Asour 的同事 Avi Salzman 报道称，这些股票按首次发行价计算价值 25 亿美元，Tenev 和 Bhatt 保留投票控制权。如果股价达到 300 美元，两人还可以获得 Tenev 价值高达 67 亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt 价值高达 40 亿美元的股票奖励，或者接近众所周知的十袋大亨。</blockquote> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”<blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪，美国工人的平均年薪降至 34,248 美元。正如喜剧演员雅科夫-斯米尔诺夫（Yakov Smirnoff）喜欢说的那样：“多么美好的国家啊!”</blockquote> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.<blockquote>这些工人的情况将是定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.<blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测集中在增加 90 万人左右。Jefferies 经济学家 Aneta Markowska 和 Thomas Simons 估计，这一增幅可能会超过人们期待已久的 100 万大关；他们预测120万。</blockquote> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)<blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有争议的问题。(有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事）。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142925544","content_text":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.\nBut the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.\nAugust actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.\nThis July did even better than the norm, with the S&P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.\nAugust’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”\nNot surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.\nPast isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.\nThe company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.\nAmong those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.\nTo be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.\nBut in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”\nHow those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.\nEconomists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.\nMarkowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5397159,"gmtCreate":1627860746822,"gmtModify":1631893651470,"authorId":3571490962428363,"author":{"id":3571490962428363,"idStr":"3571490962428363","authorId":3571490962428363,"name":"21900VAHP","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f714a885d46a73e9b9a7fa53f4a7b05d","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":805318921,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Done","text":"Done","html":"Done"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":805338208,"gmtCreate":1627860018004,"gmtModify":1633755965572,"author":{"id":"3582778356971864","authorId":"3582778356971864","name":"NgKenny","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fdae3e0bdca8d3a33e7f9d619f0dc88","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3582778356971864","idStr":"3582778356971864"},"htmlText":"Ohhh","listText":"Ohhh","text":"Ohhh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805338208","repostId":1142925544,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142925544","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627787240,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1142925544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-01 11:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142925544","media":"Barron's","summary":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970","content":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.<blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的季节”，乐队高唱着 20 世纪 70 年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆起在海滩或烧烤旁的美好时光。当时没有必要提醒任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.<blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔 (Stephen Suttmeier) 编制的 1928 年数据，八月的到来也意味着股市进入了历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现，标准普尔 500 指数在 8 月、9 月和 10 月的平均回报率为 0.03%，这是该大型股基准指数一年中最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们是唯一平均亏损的三个月时期。</blockquote> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.<blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7 月份标普500的平均回报率为 1.58%，其中 59.1% 的时间为正面结果，而 9 月份的平均回报率为负 1.03%，不到一半的时间（即 45%）以正面结果结束。</blockquote> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.<blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。据道琼斯统计专家称，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，是自 2018 年 9 月以来最长的连涨。在此期间，其累计上涨18.34%。</blockquote> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”<blockquote>8 月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为 0.70%，阳性结果率为 58.1%，标志着从 “夏季撕裂 ”到 “秋季下跌 ”的过渡。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.<blockquote>Suttmeier 发现，毫不奇怪，8 月至 10 月期间的滞后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据 1992 年的记录，继 4 月至 7 月期间波动性相对较低之后，ECBOE 波动率指数 (VIX) 在那几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.<blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是序幕，如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性动荡时期，那么 Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以 38 美元的价格出售了 5500 万股股票。在这个过程中，它给所有进入IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.<blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一个要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期的 38-42 美元范围的低端。他们的价格在第一天交易中下跌了8.4%，尽管他们在周五有所回升。截至周末，持有 Robinhood IPO 的买家下跌了 7.5%。</blockquote> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.<blockquote>公司联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔-特涅夫（Vladimir Tenev）和首席创意官拜朱-巴特（Baiju Bhatt）都在高价抛售，他们在首次公开募股中分别抛售了 125 万股股票。正如我杰出的前任艾伦-阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢指出的那样，卖出股票有很多很好的理由，但预期股价上涨并不是其中之一。鉴于富裕的所有者有能力通过廉价借款来将其资产货币化，而且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未如此真实。</blockquote> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，Tenev 和 Bhatt 仍然持有 Robinhood 的重大股份。Asour 的同事 Avi Salzman 报道称，这些股票按首次发行价计算价值 25 亿美元，Tenev 和 Bhatt 保留投票控制权。如果股价达到 300 美元，两人还可以获得 Tenev 价值高达 67 亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt 价值高达 40 亿美元的股票奖励，或者接近众所周知的十袋大亨。</blockquote> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”<blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪，美国工人的平均年薪降至 34,248 美元。正如喜剧演员雅科夫-斯米尔诺夫（Yakov Smirnoff）喜欢说的那样：“多么美好的国家啊!”</blockquote> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.<blockquote>这些工人的情况将是定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.<blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测集中在增加 90 万人左右。Jefferies 经济学家 Aneta Markowska 和 Thomas Simons 估计，这一增幅可能会超过人们期待已久的 100 万大关；他们预测120万。</blockquote> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)<blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有争议的问题。(有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事）。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-08-01 11:07\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.<blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的季节”，乐队高唱着 20 世纪 70 年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆起在海滩或烧烤旁的美好时光。当时没有必要提醒任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.<blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔 (Stephen Suttmeier) 编制的 1928 年数据，八月的到来也意味着股市进入了历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现，标准普尔 500 指数在 8 月、9 月和 10 月的平均回报率为 0.03%，这是该大型股基准指数一年中最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们是唯一平均亏损的三个月时期。</blockquote> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.<blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7 月份标普500的平均回报率为 1.58%，其中 59.1% 的时间为正面结果，而 9 月份的平均回报率为负 1.03%，不到一半的时间（即 45%）以正面结果结束。</blockquote> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.<blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。据道琼斯统计专家称，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，是自 2018 年 9 月以来最长的连涨。在此期间，其累计上涨18.34%。</blockquote> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”<blockquote>8 月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为 0.70%，阳性结果率为 58.1%，标志着从 “夏季撕裂 ”到 “秋季下跌 ”的过渡。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.<blockquote>Suttmeier 发现，毫不奇怪，8 月至 10 月期间的滞后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据 1992 年的记录，继 4 月至 7 月期间波动性相对较低之后，ECBOE 波动率指数 (VIX) 在那几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.<blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是序幕，如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性动荡时期，那么 Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以 38 美元的价格出售了 5500 万股股票。在这个过程中，它给所有进入IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.<blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一个要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期的 38-42 美元范围的低端。他们的价格在第一天交易中下跌了8.4%，尽管他们在周五有所回升。截至周末，持有 Robinhood IPO 的买家下跌了 7.5%。</blockquote> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.<blockquote>公司联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔-特涅夫（Vladimir Tenev）和首席创意官拜朱-巴特（Baiju Bhatt）都在高价抛售，他们在首次公开募股中分别抛售了 125 万股股票。正如我杰出的前任艾伦-阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢指出的那样，卖出股票有很多很好的理由，但预期股价上涨并不是其中之一。鉴于富裕的所有者有能力通过廉价借款来将其资产货币化，而且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未如此真实。</blockquote> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，Tenev 和 Bhatt 仍然持有 Robinhood 的重大股份。Asour 的同事 Avi Salzman 报道称，这些股票按首次发行价计算价值 25 亿美元，Tenev 和 Bhatt 保留投票控制权。如果股价达到 300 美元，两人还可以获得 Tenev 价值高达 67 亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt 价值高达 40 亿美元的股票奖励，或者接近众所周知的十袋大亨。</blockquote> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”<blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪，美国工人的平均年薪降至 34,248 美元。正如喜剧演员雅科夫-斯米尔诺夫（Yakov Smirnoff）喜欢说的那样：“多么美好的国家啊!”</blockquote> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.<blockquote>这些工人的情况将是定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.<blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测集中在增加 90 万人左右。Jefferies 经济学家 Aneta Markowska 和 Thomas Simons 估计，这一增幅可能会超过人们期待已久的 100 万大关；他们预测120万。</blockquote> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)<blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有争议的问题。(有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事）。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142925544","content_text":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.\nBut the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.\nAugust actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.\nThis July did even better than the norm, with the S&P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.\nAugust’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”\nNot surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.\nPast isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.\nThe company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.\nAmong those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.\nTo be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.\nBut in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”\nHow those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.\nEconomists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.\nMarkowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":805331720,"gmtCreate":1627859992160,"gmtModify":1633755966304,"author":{"id":"3571129545109571","authorId":"3571129545109571","name":"MrMrsBean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1ab99fec06884945521404915aec0e","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3571129545109571","idStr":"3571129545109571"},"htmlText":"Please like and comment. Thanks.&nbsp;","listText":"Please like and comment. Thanks.&nbsp;","text":"Please like and comment. Thanks.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805331720","repostId":1142925544,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142925544","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627787240,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1142925544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-01 11:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142925544","media":"Barron's","summary":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970","content":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.<blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的季节”，乐队高唱着 20 世纪 70 年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆起在海滩或烧烤旁的美好时光。当时没有必要提醒任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.<blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔 (Stephen Suttmeier) 编制的 1928 年数据，八月的到来也意味着股市进入了历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现，标准普尔 500 指数在 8 月、9 月和 10 月的平均回报率为 0.03%，这是该大型股基准指数一年中最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们是唯一平均亏损的三个月时期。</blockquote> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.<blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7 月份标普500的平均回报率为 1.58%，其中 59.1% 的时间为正面结果，而 9 月份的平均回报率为负 1.03%，不到一半的时间（即 45%）以正面结果结束。</blockquote> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.<blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。据道琼斯统计专家称，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，是自 2018 年 9 月以来最长的连涨。在此期间，其累计上涨18.34%。</blockquote> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”<blockquote>8 月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为 0.70%，阳性结果率为 58.1%，标志着从 “夏季撕裂 ”到 “秋季下跌 ”的过渡。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.<blockquote>Suttmeier 发现，毫不奇怪，8 月至 10 月期间的滞后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据 1992 年的记录，继 4 月至 7 月期间波动性相对较低之后，ECBOE 波动率指数 (VIX) 在那几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.<blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是序幕，如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性动荡时期，那么 Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以 38 美元的价格出售了 5500 万股股票。在这个过程中，它给所有进入IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.<blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一个要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期的 38-42 美元范围的低端。他们的价格在第一天交易中下跌了8.4%，尽管他们在周五有所回升。截至周末，持有 Robinhood IPO 的买家下跌了 7.5%。</blockquote> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.<blockquote>公司联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔-特涅夫（Vladimir Tenev）和首席创意官拜朱-巴特（Baiju Bhatt）都在高价抛售，他们在首次公开募股中分别抛售了 125 万股股票。正如我杰出的前任艾伦-阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢指出的那样，卖出股票有很多很好的理由，但预期股价上涨并不是其中之一。鉴于富裕的所有者有能力通过廉价借款来将其资产货币化，而且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未如此真实。</blockquote> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，Tenev 和 Bhatt 仍然持有 Robinhood 的重大股份。Asour 的同事 Avi Salzman 报道称，这些股票按首次发行价计算价值 25 亿美元，Tenev 和 Bhatt 保留投票控制权。如果股价达到 300 美元，两人还可以获得 Tenev 价值高达 67 亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt 价值高达 40 亿美元的股票奖励，或者接近众所周知的十袋大亨。</blockquote> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”<blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪，美国工人的平均年薪降至 34,248 美元。正如喜剧演员雅科夫-斯米尔诺夫（Yakov Smirnoff）喜欢说的那样：“多么美好的国家啊!”</blockquote> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.<blockquote>这些工人的情况将是定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.<blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测集中在增加 90 万人左右。Jefferies 经济学家 Aneta Markowska 和 Thomas Simons 估计，这一增幅可能会超过人们期待已久的 100 万大关；他们预测120万。</blockquote> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)<blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有争议的问题。(有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事）。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-08-01 11:07\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.<blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的季节”，乐队高唱着 20 世纪 70 年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆起在海滩或烧烤旁的美好时光。当时没有必要提醒任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.<blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔 (Stephen Suttmeier) 编制的 1928 年数据，八月的到来也意味着股市进入了历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现，标准普尔 500 指数在 8 月、9 月和 10 月的平均回报率为 0.03%，这是该大型股基准指数一年中最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们是唯一平均亏损的三个月时期。</blockquote> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.<blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7 月份标普500的平均回报率为 1.58%，其中 59.1% 的时间为正面结果，而 9 月份的平均回报率为负 1.03%，不到一半的时间（即 45%）以正面结果结束。</blockquote> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.<blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。据道琼斯统计专家称，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，是自 2018 年 9 月以来最长的连涨。在此期间，其累计上涨18.34%。</blockquote> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”<blockquote>8 月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为 0.70%，阳性结果率为 58.1%，标志着从 “夏季撕裂 ”到 “秋季下跌 ”的过渡。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.<blockquote>Suttmeier 发现，毫不奇怪，8 月至 10 月期间的滞后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据 1992 年的记录，继 4 月至 7 月期间波动性相对较低之后，ECBOE 波动率指数 (VIX) 在那几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.<blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是序幕，如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性动荡时期，那么 Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以 38 美元的价格出售了 5500 万股股票。在这个过程中，它给所有进入IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.<blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一个要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期的 38-42 美元范围的低端。他们的价格在第一天交易中下跌了8.4%，尽管他们在周五有所回升。截至周末，持有 Robinhood IPO 的买家下跌了 7.5%。</blockquote> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.<blockquote>公司联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔-特涅夫（Vladimir Tenev）和首席创意官拜朱-巴特（Baiju Bhatt）都在高价抛售，他们在首次公开募股中分别抛售了 125 万股股票。正如我杰出的前任艾伦-阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢指出的那样，卖出股票有很多很好的理由，但预期股价上涨并不是其中之一。鉴于富裕的所有者有能力通过廉价借款来将其资产货币化，而且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未如此真实。</blockquote> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，Tenev 和 Bhatt 仍然持有 Robinhood 的重大股份。Asour 的同事 Avi Salzman 报道称，这些股票按首次发行价计算价值 25 亿美元，Tenev 和 Bhatt 保留投票控制权。如果股价达到 300 美元，两人还可以获得 Tenev 价值高达 67 亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt 价值高达 40 亿美元的股票奖励，或者接近众所周知的十袋大亨。</blockquote> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”<blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪，美国工人的平均年薪降至 34,248 美元。正如喜剧演员雅科夫-斯米尔诺夫（Yakov Smirnoff）喜欢说的那样：“多么美好的国家啊!”</blockquote> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.<blockquote>这些工人的情况将是定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.<blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测集中在增加 90 万人左右。Jefferies 经济学家 Aneta Markowska 和 Thomas Simons 估计，这一增幅可能会超过人们期待已久的 100 万大关；他们预测120万。</blockquote> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)<blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有争议的问题。(有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事）。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142925544","content_text":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.\nBut the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.\nAugust actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.\nThis July did even better than the norm, with the S&P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.\nAugust’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”\nNot surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.\nPast isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.\nThe company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.\nAmong those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.\nTo be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.\nBut in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”\nHow those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.\nEconomists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.\nMarkowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5397016,"gmtCreate":1627860047582,"gmtModify":1635162525546,"authorId":3571627110799155,"author":{"id":3571627110799155,"idStr":"3571627110799155","authorId":3571627110799155,"name":"JJQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1583dfc728890d33cf4ad0811d5ce30","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"99a38ff64bfd44f891fd016771fc8f64-1","templateUuid":"99a38ff64bfd44f891fd016771fc8f64","name":"超级披露者","description":"在交易分享中开启超级披露","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/802f4014829adb4e63332fc230b97e42","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70e97d213ed3e4f4820224f1366d402f","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLinkType":1,"redirectLink":"https://www.itigerup.com/activity/forapp/star-investor","redirectLinkValidityFrom":1776816000000,"redirectLinkValidityTo":2156198400000,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.04.23","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1104,"isScarce":1,"effectEnabled":0,"wearingSort":1},"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[{"categoryType":1104,"badgeId":"99a38ff64bfd44f891fd016771fc8f64-1","name":"超级披露者","description":"在交易分享中开启超级披露","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70e97d213ed3e4f4820224f1366d402f","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/802f4014829adb4e63332fc230b97e42","isScarce":1,"plateColors":{"bgColor":{"dark":"#2f2a1f","tint":"#fcf6e5"},"fontColor":{"dark":"#dea95e","tint":"#885600"}},"effectEnabled":0,"redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLinkType":1,"redirectLink":"https://www.itigerup.com/activity/forapp/star-investor","redirectLinkValidityFrom":1776816000000,"redirectLinkValidityTo":2156198400000,"sortingWeight":0,"wearable":1}]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":805331720,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Done","text":"Done","html":"Done"},{"id":5397021,"gmtCreate":1627860066535,"gmtModify":1635162525316,"authorId":3571129545109571,"author":{"id":3571129545109571,"idStr":"3571129545109571","authorId":3571129545109571,"name":"MrMrsBean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1ab99fec06884945521404915aec0e","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":805331720,"type":1,"supId":5397016,"prevId":0,"content":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","html":"Thanks"},{"id":5397033,"gmtCreate":1627860141595,"gmtModify":1635162524232,"authorId":3580363111370038,"author":{"id":3580363111370038,"idStr":"3580363111370038","authorId":3580363111370038,"name":"Kinokinok","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f1aab7b42bc118820a5c63211782a7c","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":805331720,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"},{"id":5397668,"gmtCreate":1627863134006,"gmtModify":1635162456640,"authorId":3571627110799155,"author":{"id":3571627110799155,"idStr":"3571627110799155","authorId":3571627110799155,"name":"JJQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1583dfc728890d33cf4ad0811d5ce30","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"99a38ff64bfd44f891fd016771fc8f64-1","templateUuid":"99a38ff64bfd44f891fd016771fc8f64","name":"超级披露者","description":"在交易分享中开启超级披露","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/802f4014829adb4e63332fc230b97e42","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70e97d213ed3e4f4820224f1366d402f","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLinkType":1,"redirectLink":"https://www.itigerup.com/activity/forapp/star-investor","redirectLinkValidityFrom":1776816000000,"redirectLinkValidityTo":2156198400000,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.04.23","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1104,"isScarce":1,"effectEnabled":0,"wearingSort":1},"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[{"categoryType":1104,"badgeId":"99a38ff64bfd44f891fd016771fc8f64-1","name":"超级披露者","description":"在交易分享中开启超级披露","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70e97d213ed3e4f4820224f1366d402f","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/802f4014829adb4e63332fc230b97e42","isScarce":1,"plateColors":{"bgColor":{"dark":"#2f2a1f","tint":"#fcf6e5"},"fontColor":{"dark":"#dea95e","tint":"#885600"}},"effectEnabled":0,"redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLinkType":1,"redirectLink":"https://www.itigerup.com/activity/forapp/star-investor","redirectLinkValidityFrom":1776816000000,"redirectLinkValidityTo":2156198400000,"sortingWeight":0,"wearable":1}]},"repliedAuthorId":3571129545109571,"repliedAuthor":{"id":3571129545109571,"idStr":"3571129545109571","authorId":3571129545109571,"name":"MrMrsBean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1ab99fec06884945521404915aec0e","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"objectId":805331720,"type":1,"supId":5397016,"prevId":5397021,"content":"👍","text":"👍","html":"👍"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":805330114,"gmtCreate":1627859851538,"gmtModify":1631893390110,"author":{"id":"3586570953514754","authorId":"3586570953514754","name":"诗迷","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ede7919964a05a6754d4489382883c39","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3586570953514754","idStr":"3586570953514754"},"htmlText":"Like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805330114","repostId":1142925544,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142925544","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627787240,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1142925544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-01 11:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142925544","media":"Barron's","summary":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970","content":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.<blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的季节”，乐队高唱着 20 世纪 70 年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆起在海滩或烧烤旁的美好时光。当时没有必要提醒任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.<blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔 (Stephen Suttmeier) 编制的 1928 年数据，八月的到来也意味着股市进入了历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现，标准普尔 500 指数在 8 月、9 月和 10 月的平均回报率为 0.03%，这是该大型股基准指数一年中最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们是唯一平均亏损的三个月时期。</blockquote> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.<blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7 月份标普500的平均回报率为 1.58%，其中 59.1% 的时间为正面结果，而 9 月份的平均回报率为负 1.03%，不到一半的时间（即 45%）以正面结果结束。</blockquote> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.<blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。据道琼斯统计专家称，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，是自 2018 年 9 月以来最长的连涨。在此期间，其累计上涨18.34%。</blockquote> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”<blockquote>8 月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为 0.70%，阳性结果率为 58.1%，标志着从 “夏季撕裂 ”到 “秋季下跌 ”的过渡。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.<blockquote>Suttmeier 发现，毫不奇怪，8 月至 10 月期间的滞后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据 1992 年的记录，继 4 月至 7 月期间波动性相对较低之后，ECBOE 波动率指数 (VIX) 在那几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.<blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是序幕，如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性动荡时期，那么 Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以 38 美元的价格出售了 5500 万股股票。在这个过程中，它给所有进入IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.<blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一个要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期的 38-42 美元范围的低端。他们的价格在第一天交易中下跌了8.4%，尽管他们在周五有所回升。截至周末，持有 Robinhood IPO 的买家下跌了 7.5%。</blockquote> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.<blockquote>公司联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔-特涅夫（Vladimir Tenev）和首席创意官拜朱-巴特（Baiju Bhatt）都在高价抛售，他们在首次公开募股中分别抛售了 125 万股股票。正如我杰出的前任艾伦-阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢指出的那样，卖出股票有很多很好的理由，但预期股价上涨并不是其中之一。鉴于富裕的所有者有能力通过廉价借款来将其资产货币化，而且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未如此真实。</blockquote> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，Tenev 和 Bhatt 仍然持有 Robinhood 的重大股份。Asour 的同事 Avi Salzman 报道称，这些股票按首次发行价计算价值 25 亿美元，Tenev 和 Bhatt 保留投票控制权。如果股价达到 300 美元，两人还可以获得 Tenev 价值高达 67 亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt 价值高达 40 亿美元的股票奖励，或者接近众所周知的十袋大亨。</blockquote> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”<blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪，美国工人的平均年薪降至 34,248 美元。正如喜剧演员雅科夫-斯米尔诺夫（Yakov Smirnoff）喜欢说的那样：“多么美好的国家啊!”</blockquote> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.<blockquote>这些工人的情况将是定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.<blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测集中在增加 90 万人左右。Jefferies 经济学家 Aneta Markowska 和 Thomas Simons 估计，这一增幅可能会超过人们期待已久的 100 万大关；他们预测120万。</blockquote> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)<blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有争议的问题。(有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事）。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-08-01 11:07\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.<blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的季节”，乐队高唱着 20 世纪 70 年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆起在海滩或烧烤旁的美好时光。当时没有必要提醒任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.<blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔 (Stephen Suttmeier) 编制的 1928 年数据，八月的到来也意味着股市进入了历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现，标准普尔 500 指数在 8 月、9 月和 10 月的平均回报率为 0.03%，这是该大型股基准指数一年中最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们是唯一平均亏损的三个月时期。</blockquote> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.<blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7 月份标普500的平均回报率为 1.58%，其中 59.1% 的时间为正面结果，而 9 月份的平均回报率为负 1.03%，不到一半的时间（即 45%）以正面结果结束。</blockquote> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.<blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。据道琼斯统计专家称，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，是自 2018 年 9 月以来最长的连涨。在此期间，其累计上涨18.34%。</blockquote> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”<blockquote>8 月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为 0.70%，阳性结果率为 58.1%，标志着从 “夏季撕裂 ”到 “秋季下跌 ”的过渡。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.<blockquote>Suttmeier 发现，毫不奇怪，8 月至 10 月期间的滞后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据 1992 年的记录，继 4 月至 7 月期间波动性相对较低之后，ECBOE 波动率指数 (VIX) 在那几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.<blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是序幕，如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性动荡时期，那么 Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以 38 美元的价格出售了 5500 万股股票。在这个过程中，它给所有进入IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.<blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一个要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期的 38-42 美元范围的低端。他们的价格在第一天交易中下跌了8.4%，尽管他们在周五有所回升。截至周末，持有 Robinhood IPO 的买家下跌了 7.5%。</blockquote> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.<blockquote>公司联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔-特涅夫（Vladimir Tenev）和首席创意官拜朱-巴特（Baiju Bhatt）都在高价抛售，他们在首次公开募股中分别抛售了 125 万股股票。正如我杰出的前任艾伦-阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢指出的那样，卖出股票有很多很好的理由，但预期股价上涨并不是其中之一。鉴于富裕的所有者有能力通过廉价借款来将其资产货币化，而且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未如此真实。</blockquote> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，Tenev 和 Bhatt 仍然持有 Robinhood 的重大股份。Asour 的同事 Avi Salzman 报道称，这些股票按首次发行价计算价值 25 亿美元，Tenev 和 Bhatt 保留投票控制权。如果股价达到 300 美元，两人还可以获得 Tenev 价值高达 67 亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt 价值高达 40 亿美元的股票奖励，或者接近众所周知的十袋大亨。</blockquote> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”<blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪，美国工人的平均年薪降至 34,248 美元。正如喜剧演员雅科夫-斯米尔诺夫（Yakov Smirnoff）喜欢说的那样：“多么美好的国家啊!”</blockquote> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.<blockquote>这些工人的情况将是定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.<blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测集中在增加 90 万人左右。Jefferies 经济学家 Aneta Markowska 和 Thomas Simons 估计，这一增幅可能会超过人们期待已久的 100 万大关；他们预测120万。</blockquote> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)<blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有争议的问题。(有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事）。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142925544","content_text":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.\nBut the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.\nAugust actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.\nThis July did even better than the norm, with the S&P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.\nAugust’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”\nNot surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.\nPast isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.\nThe company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.\nAmong those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.\nTo be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.\nBut in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”\nHow those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.\nEconomists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.\nMarkowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5397188,"gmtCreate":1627860850418,"gmtModify":1631893390144,"authorId":3582972798563668,"author":{"id":3582972798563668,"idStr":"3582972798563668","authorId":3582972798563668,"name":"JS64","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad519f92a203874c41d7d11080b13d18","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":805330114,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"},{"id":5397133,"gmtCreate":1627860639122,"gmtModify":1631893390133,"authorId":3583238931757961,"author":{"id":3583238931757961,"idStr":"3583238931757961","authorId":3583238931757961,"name":"267c35e8","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":805330114,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"vk","text":"vk","html":"vk"},{"id":5397035,"gmtCreate":1627860148153,"gmtModify":1631893390123,"authorId":3580363111370038,"author":{"id":3580363111370038,"idStr":"3580363111370038","authorId":3580363111370038,"name":"Kinokinok","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f1aab7b42bc118820a5c63211782a7c","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":805330114,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"},{"id":5397009,"gmtCreate":1627860036797,"gmtModify":1631893390112,"authorId":3571627110799155,"author":{"id":3571627110799155,"idStr":"3571627110799155","authorId":3571627110799155,"name":"JJQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1583dfc728890d33cf4ad0811d5ce30","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"99a38ff64bfd44f891fd016771fc8f64-1","templateUuid":"99a38ff64bfd44f891fd016771fc8f64","name":"超级披露者","description":"在交易分享中开启超级披露","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/802f4014829adb4e63332fc230b97e42","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70e97d213ed3e4f4820224f1366d402f","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLinkType":1,"redirectLink":"https://www.itigerup.com/activity/forapp/star-investor","redirectLinkValidityFrom":1776816000000,"redirectLinkValidityTo":2156198400000,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.04.23","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1104,"isScarce":1,"effectEnabled":0,"wearingSort":1},"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[{"categoryType":1104,"badgeId":"99a38ff64bfd44f891fd016771fc8f64-1","name":"超级披露者","description":"在交易分享中开启超级披露","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70e97d213ed3e4f4820224f1366d402f","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/802f4014829adb4e63332fc230b97e42","isScarce":1,"plateColors":{"bgColor":{"dark":"#2f2a1f","tint":"#fcf6e5"},"fontColor":{"dark":"#dea95e","tint":"#885600"}},"effectEnabled":0,"redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLinkType":1,"redirectLink":"https://www.itigerup.com/activity/forapp/star-investor","redirectLinkValidityFrom":1776816000000,"redirectLinkValidityTo":2156198400000,"sortingWeight":0,"wearable":1}]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":805330114,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Done","text":"Done","html":"Done"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":805395832,"gmtCreate":1627859696526,"gmtModify":1631891602939,"author":{"id":"3583210090992024","authorId":"3583210090992024","name":"JustinAQX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c36857e7f55d5c0aa300ac68988e55a6","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3583210090992024","idStr":"3583210090992024"},"htmlText":"Threading on thin ice! [Sweats]&nbsp;","listText":"Threading on thin ice! [Sweats]&nbsp;","text":"Threading on thin ice! [Sweats]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805395832","repostId":1142925544,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142925544","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627787240,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1142925544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-01 11:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142925544","media":"Barron's","summary":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970","content":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.<blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的季节”，乐队高唱着 20 世纪 70 年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆起在海滩或烧烤旁的美好时光。当时没有必要提醒任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.<blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔 (Stephen Suttmeier) 编制的 1928 年数据，八月的到来也意味着股市进入了历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现，标准普尔 500 指数在 8 月、9 月和 10 月的平均回报率为 0.03%，这是该大型股基准指数一年中最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们是唯一平均亏损的三个月时期。</blockquote> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.<blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7 月份标普500的平均回报率为 1.58%，其中 59.1% 的时间为正面结果，而 9 月份的平均回报率为负 1.03%，不到一半的时间（即 45%）以正面结果结束。</blockquote> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.<blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。据道琼斯统计专家称，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，是自 2018 年 9 月以来最长的连涨。在此期间，其累计上涨18.34%。</blockquote> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”<blockquote>8 月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为 0.70%，阳性结果率为 58.1%，标志着从 “夏季撕裂 ”到 “秋季下跌 ”的过渡。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.<blockquote>Suttmeier 发现，毫不奇怪，8 月至 10 月期间的滞后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据 1992 年的记录，继 4 月至 7 月期间波动性相对较低之后，ECBOE 波动率指数 (VIX) 在那几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.<blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是序幕，如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性动荡时期，那么 Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以 38 美元的价格出售了 5500 万股股票。在这个过程中，它给所有进入IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.<blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一个要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期的 38-42 美元范围的低端。他们的价格在第一天交易中下跌了8.4%，尽管他们在周五有所回升。截至周末，持有 Robinhood IPO 的买家下跌了 7.5%。</blockquote> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.<blockquote>公司联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔-特涅夫（Vladimir Tenev）和首席创意官拜朱-巴特（Baiju Bhatt）都在高价抛售，他们在首次公开募股中分别抛售了 125 万股股票。正如我杰出的前任艾伦-阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢指出的那样，卖出股票有很多很好的理由，但预期股价上涨并不是其中之一。鉴于富裕的所有者有能力通过廉价借款来将其资产货币化，而且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未如此真实。</blockquote> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，Tenev 和 Bhatt 仍然持有 Robinhood 的重大股份。Asour 的同事 Avi Salzman 报道称，这些股票按首次发行价计算价值 25 亿美元，Tenev 和 Bhatt 保留投票控制权。如果股价达到 300 美元，两人还可以获得 Tenev 价值高达 67 亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt 价值高达 40 亿美元的股票奖励，或者接近众所周知的十袋大亨。</blockquote> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”<blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪，美国工人的平均年薪降至 34,248 美元。正如喜剧演员雅科夫-斯米尔诺夫（Yakov Smirnoff）喜欢说的那样：“多么美好的国家啊!”</blockquote> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.<blockquote>这些工人的情况将是定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.<blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测集中在增加 90 万人左右。Jefferies 经济学家 Aneta Markowska 和 Thomas Simons 估计，这一增幅可能会超过人们期待已久的 100 万大关；他们预测120万。</blockquote> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)<blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有争议的问题。(有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事）。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-08-01 11:07\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.<blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的季节”，乐队高唱着 20 世纪 70 年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆起在海滩或烧烤旁的美好时光。当时没有必要提醒任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.<blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔 (Stephen Suttmeier) 编制的 1928 年数据，八月的到来也意味着股市进入了历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现，标准普尔 500 指数在 8 月、9 月和 10 月的平均回报率为 0.03%，这是该大型股基准指数一年中最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们是唯一平均亏损的三个月时期。</blockquote> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.<blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7 月份标普500的平均回报率为 1.58%，其中 59.1% 的时间为正面结果，而 9 月份的平均回报率为负 1.03%，不到一半的时间（即 45%）以正面结果结束。</blockquote> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.<blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。据道琼斯统计专家称，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，是自 2018 年 9 月以来最长的连涨。在此期间，其累计上涨18.34%。</blockquote> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”<blockquote>8 月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为 0.70%，阳性结果率为 58.1%，标志着从 “夏季撕裂 ”到 “秋季下跌 ”的过渡。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.<blockquote>Suttmeier 发现，毫不奇怪，8 月至 10 月期间的滞后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据 1992 年的记录，继 4 月至 7 月期间波动性相对较低之后，ECBOE 波动率指数 (VIX) 在那几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.<blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是序幕，如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性动荡时期，那么 Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以 38 美元的价格出售了 5500 万股股票。在这个过程中，它给所有进入IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.<blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一个要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期的 38-42 美元范围的低端。他们的价格在第一天交易中下跌了8.4%，尽管他们在周五有所回升。截至周末，持有 Robinhood IPO 的买家下跌了 7.5%。</blockquote> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.<blockquote>公司联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔-特涅夫（Vladimir Tenev）和首席创意官拜朱-巴特（Baiju Bhatt）都在高价抛售，他们在首次公开募股中分别抛售了 125 万股股票。正如我杰出的前任艾伦-阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢指出的那样，卖出股票有很多很好的理由，但预期股价上涨并不是其中之一。鉴于富裕的所有者有能力通过廉价借款来将其资产货币化，而且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未如此真实。</blockquote> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，Tenev 和 Bhatt 仍然持有 Robinhood 的重大股份。Asour 的同事 Avi Salzman 报道称，这些股票按首次发行价计算价值 25 亿美元，Tenev 和 Bhatt 保留投票控制权。如果股价达到 300 美元，两人还可以获得 Tenev 价值高达 67 亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt 价值高达 40 亿美元的股票奖励，或者接近众所周知的十袋大亨。</blockquote> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”<blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪，美国工人的平均年薪降至 34,248 美元。正如喜剧演员雅科夫-斯米尔诺夫（Yakov Smirnoff）喜欢说的那样：“多么美好的国家啊!”</blockquote> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.<blockquote>这些工人的情况将是定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.<blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测集中在增加 90 万人左右。Jefferies 经济学家 Aneta Markowska 和 Thomas Simons 估计，这一增幅可能会超过人们期待已久的 100 万大关；他们预测120万。</blockquote> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)<blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有争议的问题。(有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事）。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142925544","content_text":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.\nBut the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.\nAugust actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.\nThis July did even better than the norm, with the S&P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.\nAugust’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”\nNot surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.\nPast isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.\nThe company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.\nAmong those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.\nTo be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.\nBut in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”\nHow those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.\nEconomists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.\nMarkowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5414560,"gmtCreate":1627994862169,"gmtModify":1635161096763,"authorId":3578871663749183,"author":{"id":3578871663749183,"idStr":"3578871663749183","authorId":3578871663749183,"name":"willnlol","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/208844269ff22e7e65d50d6a8f09c6d1","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":805395832,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"oooh","text":"oooh","html":"oooh"},{"id":5424776,"gmtCreate":1628078830849,"gmtModify":1635160290657,"authorId":3578871663749183,"author":{"id":3578871663749183,"idStr":"3578871663749183","authorId":3578871663749183,"name":"willnlol","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/208844269ff22e7e65d50d6a8f09c6d1","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":805395832,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ooh","text":"ooh","html":"ooh"},{"id":5471117,"gmtCreate":1628499288696,"gmtModify":1635156274730,"authorId":3578871663749183,"author":{"id":3578871663749183,"idStr":"3578871663749183","authorId":3578871663749183,"name":"willnlol","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/208844269ff22e7e65d50d6a8f09c6d1","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":805395832,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"😆","text":"😆","html":"😆"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":805395019,"gmtCreate":1627859677031,"gmtModify":1633755973635,"author":{"id":"3585558562860616","authorId":"3585558562860616","name":"SundarrajMks","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd065820d0c5dddac1a03289fdebeb31","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3585558562860616","idStr":"3585558562860616"},"htmlText":"Great risk this year for new investors&nbsp;","listText":"Great risk this year for new investors&nbsp;","text":"Great risk this year for new investors","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805395019","repostId":1142925544,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142925544","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627787240,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1142925544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-01 11:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142925544","media":"Barron's","summary":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970","content":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.<blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的季节”，乐队高唱着 20 世纪 70 年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆起在海滩或烧烤旁的美好时光。当时没有必要提醒任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.<blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔 (Stephen Suttmeier) 编制的 1928 年数据，八月的到来也意味着股市进入了历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现，标准普尔 500 指数在 8 月、9 月和 10 月的平均回报率为 0.03%，这是该大型股基准指数一年中最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们是唯一平均亏损的三个月时期。</blockquote> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.<blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7 月份标普500的平均回报率为 1.58%，其中 59.1% 的时间为正面结果，而 9 月份的平均回报率为负 1.03%，不到一半的时间（即 45%）以正面结果结束。</blockquote> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.<blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。据道琼斯统计专家称，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，是自 2018 年 9 月以来最长的连涨。在此期间，其累计上涨18.34%。</blockquote> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”<blockquote>8 月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为 0.70%，阳性结果率为 58.1%，标志着从 “夏季撕裂 ”到 “秋季下跌 ”的过渡。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.<blockquote>Suttmeier 发现，毫不奇怪，8 月至 10 月期间的滞后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据 1992 年的记录，继 4 月至 7 月期间波动性相对较低之后，ECBOE 波动率指数 (VIX) 在那几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.<blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是序幕，如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性动荡时期，那么 Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以 38 美元的价格出售了 5500 万股股票。在这个过程中，它给所有进入IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.<blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一个要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期的 38-42 美元范围的低端。他们的价格在第一天交易中下跌了8.4%，尽管他们在周五有所回升。截至周末，持有 Robinhood IPO 的买家下跌了 7.5%。</blockquote> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.<blockquote>公司联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔-特涅夫（Vladimir Tenev）和首席创意官拜朱-巴特（Baiju Bhatt）都在高价抛售，他们在首次公开募股中分别抛售了 125 万股股票。正如我杰出的前任艾伦-阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢指出的那样，卖出股票有很多很好的理由，但预期股价上涨并不是其中之一。鉴于富裕的所有者有能力通过廉价借款来将其资产货币化，而且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未如此真实。</blockquote> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，Tenev 和 Bhatt 仍然持有 Robinhood 的重大股份。Asour 的同事 Avi Salzman 报道称，这些股票按首次发行价计算价值 25 亿美元，Tenev 和 Bhatt 保留投票控制权。如果股价达到 300 美元，两人还可以获得 Tenev 价值高达 67 亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt 价值高达 40 亿美元的股票奖励，或者接近众所周知的十袋大亨。</blockquote> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”<blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪，美国工人的平均年薪降至 34,248 美元。正如喜剧演员雅科夫-斯米尔诺夫（Yakov Smirnoff）喜欢说的那样：“多么美好的国家啊!”</blockquote> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.<blockquote>这些工人的情况将是定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.<blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测集中在增加 90 万人左右。Jefferies 经济学家 Aneta Markowska 和 Thomas Simons 估计，这一增幅可能会超过人们期待已久的 100 万大关；他们预测120万。</blockquote> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)<blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有争议的问题。(有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事）。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-08-01 11:07\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.<blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的季节”，乐队高唱着 20 世纪 70 年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆起在海滩或烧烤旁的美好时光。当时没有必要提醒任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.<blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔 (Stephen Suttmeier) 编制的 1928 年数据，八月的到来也意味着股市进入了历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现，标准普尔 500 指数在 8 月、9 月和 10 月的平均回报率为 0.03%，这是该大型股基准指数一年中最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们是唯一平均亏损的三个月时期。</blockquote> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.<blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7 月份标普500的平均回报率为 1.58%，其中 59.1% 的时间为正面结果，而 9 月份的平均回报率为负 1.03%，不到一半的时间（即 45%）以正面结果结束。</blockquote> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.<blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。据道琼斯统计专家称，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，是自 2018 年 9 月以来最长的连涨。在此期间，其累计上涨18.34%。</blockquote> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”<blockquote>8 月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为 0.70%，阳性结果率为 58.1%，标志着从 “夏季撕裂 ”到 “秋季下跌 ”的过渡。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.<blockquote>Suttmeier 发现，毫不奇怪，8 月至 10 月期间的滞后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据 1992 年的记录，继 4 月至 7 月期间波动性相对较低之后，ECBOE 波动率指数 (VIX) 在那几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.<blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是序幕，如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性动荡时期，那么 Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以 38 美元的价格出售了 5500 万股股票。在这个过程中，它给所有进入IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.<blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一个要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期的 38-42 美元范围的低端。他们的价格在第一天交易中下跌了8.4%，尽管他们在周五有所回升。截至周末，持有 Robinhood IPO 的买家下跌了 7.5%。</blockquote> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.<blockquote>公司联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔-特涅夫（Vladimir Tenev）和首席创意官拜朱-巴特（Baiju Bhatt）都在高价抛售，他们在首次公开募股中分别抛售了 125 万股股票。正如我杰出的前任艾伦-阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢指出的那样，卖出股票有很多很好的理由，但预期股价上涨并不是其中之一。鉴于富裕的所有者有能力通过廉价借款来将其资产货币化，而且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未如此真实。</blockquote> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，Tenev 和 Bhatt 仍然持有 Robinhood 的重大股份。Asour 的同事 Avi Salzman 报道称，这些股票按首次发行价计算价值 25 亿美元，Tenev 和 Bhatt 保留投票控制权。如果股价达到 300 美元，两人还可以获得 Tenev 价值高达 67 亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt 价值高达 40 亿美元的股票奖励，或者接近众所周知的十袋大亨。</blockquote> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”<blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪，美国工人的平均年薪降至 34,248 美元。正如喜剧演员雅科夫-斯米尔诺夫（Yakov Smirnoff）喜欢说的那样：“多么美好的国家啊!”</blockquote> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.<blockquote>这些工人的情况将是定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.<blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测集中在增加 90 万人左右。Jefferies 经济学家 Aneta Markowska 和 Thomas Simons 估计，这一增幅可能会超过人们期待已久的 100 万大关；他们预测120万。</blockquote> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)<blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有争议的问题。(有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事）。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142925544","content_text":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.\nBut the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.\nAugust actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.\nThis July did even better than the norm, with the S&P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.\nAugust’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”\nNot surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.\nPast isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.\nThe company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.\nAmong those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.\nTo be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.\nBut in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”\nHow those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.\nEconomists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.\nMarkowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":805302409,"gmtCreate":1627859121701,"gmtModify":1633755983544,"author":{"id":"3586941861951066","authorId":"3586941861951066","name":"EHG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28e4734e50f795c3218330cbb6c3e9a0","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3586941861951066","idStr":"3586941861951066"},"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805302409","repostId":1142925544,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142925544","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627787240,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1142925544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-01 11:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142925544","media":"Barron's","summary":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970","content":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.<blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的季节”，乐队高唱着 20 世纪 70 年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆起在海滩或烧烤旁的美好时光。当时没有必要提醒任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.<blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔 (Stephen Suttmeier) 编制的 1928 年数据，八月的到来也意味着股市进入了历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现，标准普尔 500 指数在 8 月、9 月和 10 月的平均回报率为 0.03%，这是该大型股基准指数一年中最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们是唯一平均亏损的三个月时期。</blockquote> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.<blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7 月份标普500的平均回报率为 1.58%，其中 59.1% 的时间为正面结果，而 9 月份的平均回报率为负 1.03%，不到一半的时间（即 45%）以正面结果结束。</blockquote> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.<blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。据道琼斯统计专家称，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，是自 2018 年 9 月以来最长的连涨。在此期间，其累计上涨18.34%。</blockquote> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”<blockquote>8 月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为 0.70%，阳性结果率为 58.1%，标志着从 “夏季撕裂 ”到 “秋季下跌 ”的过渡。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.<blockquote>Suttmeier 发现，毫不奇怪，8 月至 10 月期间的滞后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据 1992 年的记录，继 4 月至 7 月期间波动性相对较低之后，ECBOE 波动率指数 (VIX) 在那几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.<blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是序幕，如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性动荡时期，那么 Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以 38 美元的价格出售了 5500 万股股票。在这个过程中，它给所有进入IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.<blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一个要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期的 38-42 美元范围的低端。他们的价格在第一天交易中下跌了8.4%，尽管他们在周五有所回升。截至周末，持有 Robinhood IPO 的买家下跌了 7.5%。</blockquote> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.<blockquote>公司联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔-特涅夫（Vladimir Tenev）和首席创意官拜朱-巴特（Baiju Bhatt）都在高价抛售，他们在首次公开募股中分别抛售了 125 万股股票。正如我杰出的前任艾伦-阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢指出的那样，卖出股票有很多很好的理由，但预期股价上涨并不是其中之一。鉴于富裕的所有者有能力通过廉价借款来将其资产货币化，而且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未如此真实。</blockquote> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，Tenev 和 Bhatt 仍然持有 Robinhood 的重大股份。Asour 的同事 Avi Salzman 报道称，这些股票按首次发行价计算价值 25 亿美元，Tenev 和 Bhatt 保留投票控制权。如果股价达到 300 美元，两人还可以获得 Tenev 价值高达 67 亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt 价值高达 40 亿美元的股票奖励，或者接近众所周知的十袋大亨。</blockquote> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”<blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪，美国工人的平均年薪降至 34,248 美元。正如喜剧演员雅科夫-斯米尔诺夫（Yakov Smirnoff）喜欢说的那样：“多么美好的国家啊!”</blockquote> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.<blockquote>这些工人的情况将是定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.<blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测集中在增加 90 万人左右。Jefferies 经济学家 Aneta Markowska 和 Thomas Simons 估计，这一增幅可能会超过人们期待已久的 100 万大关；他们预测120万。</blockquote> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)<blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有争议的问题。(有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事）。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-08-01 11:07\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.<blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的季节”，乐队高唱着 20 世纪 70 年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆起在海滩或烧烤旁的美好时光。当时没有必要提醒任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.<blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔 (Stephen Suttmeier) 编制的 1928 年数据，八月的到来也意味着股市进入了历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现，标准普尔 500 指数在 8 月、9 月和 10 月的平均回报率为 0.03%，这是该大型股基准指数一年中最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们是唯一平均亏损的三个月时期。</blockquote> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.<blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7 月份标普500的平均回报率为 1.58%，其中 59.1% 的时间为正面结果，而 9 月份的平均回报率为负 1.03%，不到一半的时间（即 45%）以正面结果结束。</blockquote> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.<blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。据道琼斯统计专家称，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，是自 2018 年 9 月以来最长的连涨。在此期间，其累计上涨18.34%。</blockquote> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”<blockquote>8 月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为 0.70%，阳性结果率为 58.1%，标志着从 “夏季撕裂 ”到 “秋季下跌 ”的过渡。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.<blockquote>Suttmeier 发现，毫不奇怪，8 月至 10 月期间的滞后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据 1992 年的记录，继 4 月至 7 月期间波动性相对较低之后，ECBOE 波动率指数 (VIX) 在那几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.<blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是序幕，如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性动荡时期，那么 Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以 38 美元的价格出售了 5500 万股股票。在这个过程中，它给所有进入IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.<blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一个要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期的 38-42 美元范围的低端。他们的价格在第一天交易中下跌了8.4%，尽管他们在周五有所回升。截至周末，持有 Robinhood IPO 的买家下跌了 7.5%。</blockquote> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.<blockquote>公司联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔-特涅夫（Vladimir Tenev）和首席创意官拜朱-巴特（Baiju Bhatt）都在高价抛售，他们在首次公开募股中分别抛售了 125 万股股票。正如我杰出的前任艾伦-阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢指出的那样，卖出股票有很多很好的理由，但预期股价上涨并不是其中之一。鉴于富裕的所有者有能力通过廉价借款来将其资产货币化，而且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未如此真实。</blockquote> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，Tenev 和 Bhatt 仍然持有 Robinhood 的重大股份。Asour 的同事 Avi Salzman 报道称，这些股票按首次发行价计算价值 25 亿美元，Tenev 和 Bhatt 保留投票控制权。如果股价达到 300 美元，两人还可以获得 Tenev 价值高达 67 亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt 价值高达 40 亿美元的股票奖励，或者接近众所周知的十袋大亨。</blockquote> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”<blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪，美国工人的平均年薪降至 34,248 美元。正如喜剧演员雅科夫-斯米尔诺夫（Yakov Smirnoff）喜欢说的那样：“多么美好的国家啊!”</blockquote> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.<blockquote>这些工人的情况将是定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.<blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测集中在增加 90 万人左右。Jefferies 经济学家 Aneta Markowska 和 Thomas Simons 估计，这一增幅可能会超过人们期待已久的 100 万大关；他们预测120万。</blockquote> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)<blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有争议的问题。(有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事）。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142925544","content_text":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.\nBut the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.\nAugust actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.\nThis July did even better than the norm, with the S&P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.\nAugust’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”\nNot surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.\nPast isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.\nThe company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.\nAmong those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.\nTo be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.\nBut in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”\nHow those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.\nEconomists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.\nMarkowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1899,"commentSize":347,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}

Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year

评论（347）

热议股票

7x24