What Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

What Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve

Barrons2021-12-06

Now can we have a correction? We’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black ...

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209

GlennG1
·2021-12-07
👌👍
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- AS78:
  Ok
  2021-12-07
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Sohws
·2021-12-07
Like pls thank you
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5
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- JG_7:
  Ok
  2021-12-07
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- 小虎一飞冲天:
  👍🏼
  2021-12-07
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- Ameliakoh:
  Done
  2021-12-07
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koolgal
·2021-12-07
With Omicron and the Feds, no wonder the market was in the doldrums. But if you have high conviction on your favourite stocks, just regard the news as noise. Hold and be strong and watch them grow 10,20 and 30 years time from now. 🎉🎊🎉
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- koolgal:
  I agree
  2021-12-07
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- koolgal回复56a3dd2f:
  Big Thank You!
  2021-12-07
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- 56a3dd2f回复koolgal:
  No problem. Happy to share with like minded friends 😊👍
  2021-12-07
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6cdf22ea
·2021-12-07
Everybody wants the stock market to rise including the FED
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SanWangtikup
·2021-12-07
Yea
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1
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Beli
·2021-12-06
Correction badly needed. Don’t hide!
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xuannie
·2021-12-06
Just give us a concrete direction already.. stop beating around the bush
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- xuannie:
  I like the quote "those who survive today will live to die another day" Hahaha
  2021-12-06
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- terrylimkc:
  thats the whole idea of the game, stir it up and down....those who can survive will live to die another day
  2021-12-06
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Uasbau
·2021-12-06
Infos
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1
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JFK
·2021-12-06
Ok like
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MinkyHuat
·2021-12-06
Sigh
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RIMURU
·2021-12-06
like follow
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- JFK:
  Ok
  2021-12-06
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MHh
·2021-12-06
Should have raised rates earlier when the market was somewhat expecting it. Now is anunpleasant surprise…
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Universe宇宙
·2021-12-06
What Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve
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- Universe宇宙:
  Inflation has become hyperinflation? and Interest rate is still zero! [Spurting]
  2021-12-06
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- Universe宇宙:
  Investor keep buying even their stocks is over-valued?
  2021-12-06
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- Universe宇宙:
  Greed is more scary than the Federal Reserve. [Evil]
  2021-12-06
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Joe0319
·2021-12-06
Likey like please
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2
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- SimplicityB:
  Ok
  2021-12-06
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YS82
·2021-12-06
More pain may be on the way…. But it doesn’t mean it is a bad thing in long term
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- YS82:
  Yup! [Happy]
  2021-12-06
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- MIe:
  Buy dip invest defensive
  2021-12-06
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- SlowNana:
  [Cry]
  2021-12-06
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我不是股神我是赌神
·2021-12-06
Ok
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3
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- 我不是股神我是赌神:
  Ok
  2021-12-07
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- Joe0319:
  ya
  2021-12-06
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tearach
·2021-12-06
Wow
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Projme
·2021-12-06
Like
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- tearach:
  ok
  2021-12-06
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FionBai
·2021-12-06
Ok
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- Annie_ann29:
  Like
  2021-12-06
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- Projme:
  Ok
  2021-12-06
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The Federal Reserve\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-06 13:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-covid-omicron-federal-reserve-51638575944>Barrons</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nNow can we have a correction?\nWe’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-covid-omicron-federal-reserve-51638575944\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".IXIC","symbol_name":"NASDAQ Composite","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-covid-omicron-federal-reserve-51638575944","article_id":"1138852642","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138852642","pubTimestamp":1638769615,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1601382232898","name":"Barrons"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Now can we have a correction?\nWe’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the ye","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"barrons.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"translate_title":"还有什么比Covid更让股市害怕？美联储","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9},"content_text":"Now can we have a correction?\nWe’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.\nThose numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.\nOn Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.\nThe S&P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.\nOmicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.\n“He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.\nThe timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.\nThe thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.\nThe data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.\nDon’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.\nMorgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron\nStock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.\nWhile they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.\n\nThe comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase & Co., who singled out a hawkish turn by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan reiterated on Monday that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.\n“Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”\nUBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":606388455,"gmtCreate":1638835069187,"gmtModify":1638835069274,"author":{"id":"4101181761261600","authorId":"4101181761261600","name":"GlennG1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dea740a7b0e73303eee56d7fb5813201","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"4101181761261600","idStr":"4101181761261600"},"htmlText":"👌👍","listText":"👌👍","text":"👌👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606388455","repostId":1138852642,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138852642","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638769615,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1138852642?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-06 13:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138852642","media":"Barrons","summary":"Now can we have a correction?\nWe’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the ye","content":"Now can we have a correction?<blockquote>现在我们可以更正一下了吗？</blockquote> We’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&amp;P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.<blockquote>我们本希望能有更好的结果，比如在年底融化。但是，由于发现了 Covid-19 的奥密克戎变种，股市在黑色星期五暴跌后，上周股市被重创，但这似乎不太可能。标普500指数本周收盘下跌 1.2%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 319.26 点，跌幅 0.9%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.6%。小盘股罗素 2000 指数本周下跌 3.9%，周三收于回调区域。</blockquote> Those numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&amp;P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.<blockquote>这些数字未能反映本周的波动有多大。在周一小幅反弹后，道指周二暴跌652.22点。周三，它在早盘交易中反弹，然后回吐了这些涨幅，然后是一些涨幅，收盘下跌 461.68 点，标普500只有包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）在内的七只股票成功收高。周四，道琼斯指数创下 3 月份以来的最大涨幅，但苹果下跌 0.6%，此前有报道称，该公司正在让供应商为不温不火的 iPhone 需求做好准备。</blockquote> On Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.<blockquote>周五，纳斯达克遭受重创，包括 Adobe (ADBE)、特斯拉 (TSLA) 和英伟达 (NVDA) 在内的大型昂贵成长型股票终于陷入抛售。“Canaccord Genuity 分析师马丁-罗伯格（Martin Roberge）指出：”鉴于许多'成长型'股票的估值过高，后者在本周的调整中首当其冲。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.<blockquote>标普500本周收盘时较 2021 年高点下跌 3.5%，略低于该指数 9 月份的跌幅，当时每个人都预测调整从未到来。这次抛售看起来有更多的腿。对估值和即将到来的财报季的普遍担忧已经一去不复返了，取而代之的是新的 Covid 变种和美联储紧缩周期的开始。</blockquote> Omicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.<blockquote>奥密克戎本身已经够糟糕的了--没有人知道它会对经济造成多大伤害--但随后美联储主席鲍威尔不得不承认，通胀毕竟不是暂时的，缩减通胀的速度可能要快于预期。</blockquote> “He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.<blockquote>“CIBC Private Wealth US 首席投资官戴夫-多纳贝迪安（Dave Donabedian）说：”他如此强烈地依赖这一信息，这告诉你一些战略变化即将到来。</blockquote> The timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.<blockquote>时间有点奇怪。有关在美国发现奥密克戎的头条新闻已经困扰着市场。鲍威尔让事情变得更糟。尽管如此，也许投资者应该问他为什么选择在那一天发表评论，而不是问他的声明本可以更有力。“MKM Partners 首席经济学家迈克尔-达尔达（Michael Darda）说：”想象一下，如果没有变体，演讲会是什么样子。</blockquote> The thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.<blockquote>问题是，鉴于美国经济的实力，鲍威尔采取鹰派立场完全正确。尽管头条新闻大错特错，就业报告依然稳健，失业率降至4.2%，参与率升至61.8%。供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）的非制造业调查达到创纪录的 69.1，而制造业指数也保持在 60 以上。</blockquote> The data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.<blockquote>这些数据非常好，以至于亚特兰大联储对美国第四季度经济增长的 GDPNow 估计最近达到了 9.7%。定于本周五公布的消费者价格指数预计11月份将上涨0.65%。所有这些都表明，经济已经为收紧货币政策做好了准备，即使股市还没有。“达尔达说：”鲍威尔是对的，即使市场有点恐慌。</blockquote> Don’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.<blockquote>如果情况再糟糕一点，也不要感到惊讶。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为美联储对股市的威胁比奥密克戎更大</blockquote> Stock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师表示，股票投资者可能有比新型冠状病毒株的出现更重要的事情需要担心。</blockquote> While they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.<blockquote>虽然他们 “并不那么担心奥密克戎是股市的主要风险因素”，但在美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）暗示可能加速缩减资产购买规模后，策略师们认为其他地方也出现了不利因素。“以迈克尔-威尔逊（Michael Wilson）为首的策略师在给客户的一份报告中写道：”缩减规模正在收紧市场，这将导致估值下降，就像在任何复苏的这个阶段一样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2480f1a0450a30811b2f0b6e1a23b008\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., who&nbsp;singled out a hawkish turn&nbsp;by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan&nbsp;reiterated on Monday&nbsp;that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&amp;P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.<blockquote>这些言论呼应了其他策略师的观点，其中包括摩根大通的策略师，他们指出央行的鹰派转向是其股市前景的主要风险。不过，尽管摩根大通周一重申，其基本情景是股市上涨将持续到明年，但摩根士丹利认为标普500呈走低趋势，估值下降。</blockquote> “Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&amp;P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”<blockquote>“摩根士丹利策略师写道：”由于多种原因，股市正在恢复九个多月前开始的降级进程。他们预测，标普500远期市盈率将下降约 12%，而且 “随着股票投资者在预期长期利率大幅上升的情况下开始要求更高的风险溢价”，跌幅可能会更深。</blockquote> UBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.<blockquote>瑞银全球财富管理策略师周一表示，他们 “预计未来一段时间的波动性将加剧，因为投资者试图根据不充分和参差不齐的数据评估奥密克戎和美联储的风险”。虽然他们建议投资者不要仓促退出风险资产，但以马克·海菲尔为首的策略师表示，货币紧缩可能会给他们的基本情景带来悲观的情况。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-12-06 13:46\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nNow can we have a correction?<blockquote>现在我们可以更正一下了吗？</blockquote> We’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&amp;P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.<blockquote>我们本希望能有更好的结果，比如在年底融化。但是，由于发现了 Covid-19 的奥密克戎变种，股市在黑色星期五暴跌后，上周股市被重创，但这似乎不太可能。标普500指数本周收盘下跌 1.2%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 319.26 点，跌幅 0.9%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.6%。小盘股罗素 2000 指数本周下跌 3.9%，周三收于回调区域。</blockquote> Those numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&amp;P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.<blockquote>这些数字未能反映本周的波动有多大。在周一小幅反弹后，道指周二暴跌652.22点。周三，它在早盘交易中反弹，然后回吐了这些涨幅，然后是一些涨幅，收盘下跌 461.68 点，标普500只有包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）在内的七只股票成功收高。周四，道琼斯指数创下 3 月份以来的最大涨幅，但苹果下跌 0.6%，此前有报道称，该公司正在让供应商为不温不火的 iPhone 需求做好准备。</blockquote> On Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.<blockquote>周五，纳斯达克遭受重创，包括 Adobe (ADBE)、特斯拉 (TSLA) 和英伟达 (NVDA) 在内的大型昂贵成长型股票终于陷入抛售。“Canaccord Genuity 分析师马丁-罗伯格（Martin Roberge）指出：”鉴于许多'成长型'股票的估值过高，后者在本周的调整中首当其冲。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.<blockquote>标普500本周收盘时较 2021 年高点下跌 3.5%，略低于该指数 9 月份的跌幅，当时每个人都预测调整从未到来。这次抛售看起来有更多的腿。对估值和即将到来的财报季的普遍担忧已经一去不复返了，取而代之的是新的 Covid 变种和美联储紧缩周期的开始。</blockquote> Omicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.<blockquote>奥密克戎本身已经够糟糕的了--没有人知道它会对经济造成多大伤害--但随后美联储主席鲍威尔不得不承认，通胀毕竟不是暂时的，缩减通胀的速度可能要快于预期。</blockquote> “He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.<blockquote>“CIBC Private Wealth US 首席投资官戴夫-多纳贝迪安（Dave Donabedian）说：”他如此强烈地依赖这一信息，这告诉你一些战略变化即将到来。</blockquote> The timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.<blockquote>时间有点奇怪。有关在美国发现奥密克戎的头条新闻已经困扰着市场。鲍威尔让事情变得更糟。尽管如此，也许投资者应该问他为什么选择在那一天发表评论，而不是问他的声明本可以更有力。“MKM Partners 首席经济学家迈克尔-达尔达（Michael Darda）说：”想象一下，如果没有变体，演讲会是什么样子。</blockquote> The thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.<blockquote>问题是，鉴于美国经济的实力，鲍威尔采取鹰派立场完全正确。尽管头条新闻大错特错，就业报告依然稳健，失业率降至4.2%，参与率升至61.8%。供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）的非制造业调查达到创纪录的 69.1，而制造业指数也保持在 60 以上。</blockquote> The data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.<blockquote>这些数据非常好，以至于亚特兰大联储对美国第四季度经济增长的 GDPNow 估计最近达到了 9.7%。定于本周五公布的消费者价格指数预计11月份将上涨0.65%。所有这些都表明，经济已经为收紧货币政策做好了准备，即使股市还没有。“达尔达说：”鲍威尔是对的，即使市场有点恐慌。</blockquote> Don’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.<blockquote>如果情况再糟糕一点，也不要感到惊讶。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为美联储对股市的威胁比奥密克戎更大</blockquote> Stock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师表示，股票投资者可能有比新型冠状病毒株的出现更重要的事情需要担心。</blockquote> While they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.<blockquote>虽然他们 “并不那么担心奥密克戎是股市的主要风险因素”，但在美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）暗示可能加速缩减资产购买规模后，策略师们认为其他地方也出现了不利因素。“以迈克尔-威尔逊（Michael Wilson）为首的策略师在给客户的一份报告中写道：”缩减规模正在收紧市场，这将导致估值下降，就像在任何复苏的这个阶段一样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2480f1a0450a30811b2f0b6e1a23b008\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., who&nbsp;singled out a hawkish turn&nbsp;by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan&nbsp;reiterated on Monday&nbsp;that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&amp;P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.<blockquote>这些言论呼应了其他策略师的观点，其中包括摩根大通的策略师，他们指出央行的鹰派转向是其股市前景的主要风险。不过，尽管摩根大通周一重申，其基本情景是股市上涨将持续到明年，但摩根士丹利认为标普500呈走低趋势，估值下降。</blockquote> “Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&amp;P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”<blockquote>“摩根士丹利策略师写道：”由于多种原因，股市正在恢复九个多月前开始的降级进程。他们预测，标普500远期市盈率将下降约 12%，而且 “随着股票投资者在预期长期利率大幅上升的情况下开始要求更高的风险溢价”，跌幅可能会更深。</blockquote> UBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.<blockquote>瑞银全球财富管理策略师周一表示，他们 “预计未来一段时间的波动性将加剧，因为投资者试图根据不充分和参差不齐的数据评估奥密克戎和美联储的风险”。虽然他们建议投资者不要仓促退出风险资产，但以马克·海菲尔为首的策略师表示，货币紧缩可能会给他们的基本情景带来悲观的情况。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-covid-omicron-federal-reserve-51638575944\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-covid-omicron-federal-reserve-51638575944","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138852642","content_text":"Now can we have a correction?\nWe’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.\nThose numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.\nOn Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.\nThe S&P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.\nOmicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.\n“He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.\nThe timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.\nThe thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.\nThe data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.\nDon’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.\nMorgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron\nStock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.\nWhile they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.\n\nThe comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase & Co., who singled out a hawkish turn by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan reiterated on Monday that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.\n“Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”\nUBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6876290,"gmtCreate":1638836363209,"gmtModify":1638836363243,"authorId":3554958921608603,"author":{"id":3554958921608603,"idStr":"3554958921608603","authorId":3554958921608603,"name":"AS78","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":606388455,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":606393659,"gmtCreate":1638832508780,"gmtModify":1638832509205,"author":{"id":"3566383987360583","authorId":"3566383987360583","name":"Sohws","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/820619ac430f3da1496aa96b932f4372","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3566383987360583","idStr":"3566383987360583"},"htmlText":"Like pls thank you&nbsp;","listText":"Like pls thank you&nbsp;","text":"Like pls thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606393659","repostId":1138852642,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138852642","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638769615,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1138852642?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-06 13:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138852642","media":"Barrons","summary":"Now can we have a correction?\nWe’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the ye","content":"Now can we have a correction?<blockquote>现在我们可以更正一下了吗？</blockquote> We’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&amp;P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.<blockquote>我们本希望能有更好的结果，比如在年底融化。但是，由于发现了 Covid-19 的奥密克戎变种，股市在黑色星期五暴跌后，上周股市被重创，但这似乎不太可能。标普500指数本周收盘下跌 1.2%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 319.26 点，跌幅 0.9%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.6%。小盘股罗素 2000 指数本周下跌 3.9%，周三收于回调区域。</blockquote> Those numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&amp;P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.<blockquote>这些数字未能反映本周的波动有多大。在周一小幅反弹后，道指周二暴跌652.22点。周三，它在早盘交易中反弹，然后回吐了这些涨幅，然后是一些涨幅，收盘下跌 461.68 点，标普500只有包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）在内的七只股票成功收高。周四，道琼斯指数创下 3 月份以来的最大涨幅，但苹果下跌 0.6%，此前有报道称，该公司正在让供应商为不温不火的 iPhone 需求做好准备。</blockquote> On Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.<blockquote>周五，纳斯达克遭受重创，包括 Adobe (ADBE)、特斯拉 (TSLA) 和英伟达 (NVDA) 在内的大型昂贵成长型股票终于陷入抛售。“Canaccord Genuity 分析师马丁-罗伯格（Martin Roberge）指出：”鉴于许多'成长型'股票的估值过高，后者在本周的调整中首当其冲。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.<blockquote>标普500本周收盘时较 2021 年高点下跌 3.5%，略低于该指数 9 月份的跌幅，当时每个人都预测调整从未到来。这次抛售看起来有更多的腿。对估值和即将到来的财报季的普遍担忧已经一去不复返了，取而代之的是新的 Covid 变种和美联储紧缩周期的开始。</blockquote> Omicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.<blockquote>奥密克戎本身已经够糟糕的了--没有人知道它会对经济造成多大伤害--但随后美联储主席鲍威尔不得不承认，通胀毕竟不是暂时的，缩减通胀的速度可能要快于预期。</blockquote> “He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.<blockquote>“CIBC Private Wealth US 首席投资官戴夫-多纳贝迪安（Dave Donabedian）说：”他如此强烈地依赖这一信息，这告诉你一些战略变化即将到来。</blockquote> The timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.<blockquote>时间有点奇怪。有关在美国发现奥密克戎的头条新闻已经困扰着市场。鲍威尔让事情变得更糟。尽管如此，也许投资者应该问他为什么选择在那一天发表评论，而不是问他的声明本可以更有力。“MKM Partners 首席经济学家迈克尔-达尔达（Michael Darda）说：”想象一下，如果没有变体，演讲会是什么样子。</blockquote> The thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.<blockquote>问题是，鉴于美国经济的实力，鲍威尔采取鹰派立场完全正确。尽管头条新闻大错特错，就业报告依然稳健，失业率降至4.2%，参与率升至61.8%。供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）的非制造业调查达到创纪录的 69.1，而制造业指数也保持在 60 以上。</blockquote> The data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.<blockquote>这些数据非常好，以至于亚特兰大联储对美国第四季度经济增长的 GDPNow 估计最近达到了 9.7%。定于本周五公布的消费者价格指数预计11月份将上涨0.65%。所有这些都表明，经济已经为收紧货币政策做好了准备，即使股市还没有。“达尔达说：”鲍威尔是对的，即使市场有点恐慌。</blockquote> Don’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.<blockquote>如果情况再糟糕一点，也不要感到惊讶。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为美联储对股市的威胁比奥密克戎更大</blockquote> Stock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师表示，股票投资者可能有比新型冠状病毒株的出现更重要的事情需要担心。</blockquote> While they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.<blockquote>虽然他们 “并不那么担心奥密克戎是股市的主要风险因素”，但在美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）暗示可能加速缩减资产购买规模后，策略师们认为其他地方也出现了不利因素。“以迈克尔-威尔逊（Michael Wilson）为首的策略师在给客户的一份报告中写道：”缩减规模正在收紧市场，这将导致估值下降，就像在任何复苏的这个阶段一样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2480f1a0450a30811b2f0b6e1a23b008\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., who&nbsp;singled out a hawkish turn&nbsp;by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan&nbsp;reiterated on Monday&nbsp;that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&amp;P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.<blockquote>这些言论呼应了其他策略师的观点，其中包括摩根大通的策略师，他们指出央行的鹰派转向是其股市前景的主要风险。不过，尽管摩根大通周一重申，其基本情景是股市上涨将持续到明年，但摩根士丹利认为标普500呈走低趋势，估值下降。</blockquote> “Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&amp;P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”<blockquote>“摩根士丹利策略师写道：”由于多种原因，股市正在恢复九个多月前开始的降级进程。他们预测，标普500远期市盈率将下降约 12%，而且 “随着股票投资者在预期长期利率大幅上升的情况下开始要求更高的风险溢价”，跌幅可能会更深。</blockquote> UBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.<blockquote>瑞银全球财富管理策略师周一表示，他们 “预计未来一段时间的波动性将加剧，因为投资者试图根据不充分和参差不齐的数据评估奥密克戎和美联储的风险”。虽然他们建议投资者不要仓促退出风险资产，但以马克·海菲尔为首的策略师表示，货币紧缩可能会给他们的基本情景带来悲观的情况。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-12-06 13:46\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nNow can we have a correction?<blockquote>现在我们可以更正一下了吗？</blockquote> We’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&amp;P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.<blockquote>我们本希望能有更好的结果，比如在年底融化。但是，由于发现了 Covid-19 的奥密克戎变种，股市在黑色星期五暴跌后，上周股市被重创，但这似乎不太可能。标普500指数本周收盘下跌 1.2%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 319.26 点，跌幅 0.9%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.6%。小盘股罗素 2000 指数本周下跌 3.9%，周三收于回调区域。</blockquote> Those numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&amp;P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.<blockquote>这些数字未能反映本周的波动有多大。在周一小幅反弹后，道指周二暴跌652.22点。周三，它在早盘交易中反弹，然后回吐了这些涨幅，然后是一些涨幅，收盘下跌 461.68 点，标普500只有包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）在内的七只股票成功收高。周四，道琼斯指数创下 3 月份以来的最大涨幅，但苹果下跌 0.6%，此前有报道称，该公司正在让供应商为不温不火的 iPhone 需求做好准备。</blockquote> On Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.<blockquote>周五，纳斯达克遭受重创，包括 Adobe (ADBE)、特斯拉 (TSLA) 和英伟达 (NVDA) 在内的大型昂贵成长型股票终于陷入抛售。“Canaccord Genuity 分析师马丁-罗伯格（Martin Roberge）指出：”鉴于许多'成长型'股票的估值过高，后者在本周的调整中首当其冲。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.<blockquote>标普500本周收盘时较 2021 年高点下跌 3.5%，略低于该指数 9 月份的跌幅，当时每个人都预测调整从未到来。这次抛售看起来有更多的腿。对估值和即将到来的财报季的普遍担忧已经一去不复返了，取而代之的是新的 Covid 变种和美联储紧缩周期的开始。</blockquote> Omicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.<blockquote>奥密克戎本身已经够糟糕的了--没有人知道它会对经济造成多大伤害--但随后美联储主席鲍威尔不得不承认，通胀毕竟不是暂时的，缩减通胀的速度可能要快于预期。</blockquote> “He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.<blockquote>“CIBC Private Wealth US 首席投资官戴夫-多纳贝迪安（Dave Donabedian）说：”他如此强烈地依赖这一信息，这告诉你一些战略变化即将到来。</blockquote> The timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.<blockquote>时间有点奇怪。有关在美国发现奥密克戎的头条新闻已经困扰着市场。鲍威尔让事情变得更糟。尽管如此，也许投资者应该问他为什么选择在那一天发表评论，而不是问他的声明本可以更有力。“MKM Partners 首席经济学家迈克尔-达尔达（Michael Darda）说：”想象一下，如果没有变体，演讲会是什么样子。</blockquote> The thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.<blockquote>问题是，鉴于美国经济的实力，鲍威尔采取鹰派立场完全正确。尽管头条新闻大错特错，就业报告依然稳健，失业率降至4.2%，参与率升至61.8%。供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）的非制造业调查达到创纪录的 69.1，而制造业指数也保持在 60 以上。</blockquote> The data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.<blockquote>这些数据非常好，以至于亚特兰大联储对美国第四季度经济增长的 GDPNow 估计最近达到了 9.7%。定于本周五公布的消费者价格指数预计11月份将上涨0.65%。所有这些都表明，经济已经为收紧货币政策做好了准备，即使股市还没有。“达尔达说：”鲍威尔是对的，即使市场有点恐慌。</blockquote> Don’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.<blockquote>如果情况再糟糕一点，也不要感到惊讶。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为美联储对股市的威胁比奥密克戎更大</blockquote> Stock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师表示，股票投资者可能有比新型冠状病毒株的出现更重要的事情需要担心。</blockquote> While they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.<blockquote>虽然他们 “并不那么担心奥密克戎是股市的主要风险因素”，但在美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）暗示可能加速缩减资产购买规模后，策略师们认为其他地方也出现了不利因素。“以迈克尔-威尔逊（Michael Wilson）为首的策略师在给客户的一份报告中写道：”缩减规模正在收紧市场，这将导致估值下降，就像在任何复苏的这个阶段一样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2480f1a0450a30811b2f0b6e1a23b008\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., who&nbsp;singled out a hawkish turn&nbsp;by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan&nbsp;reiterated on Monday&nbsp;that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&amp;P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.<blockquote>这些言论呼应了其他策略师的观点，其中包括摩根大通的策略师，他们指出央行的鹰派转向是其股市前景的主要风险。不过，尽管摩根大通周一重申，其基本情景是股市上涨将持续到明年，但摩根士丹利认为标普500呈走低趋势，估值下降。</blockquote> “Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&amp;P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”<blockquote>“摩根士丹利策略师写道：”由于多种原因，股市正在恢复九个多月前开始的降级进程。他们预测，标普500远期市盈率将下降约 12%，而且 “随着股票投资者在预期长期利率大幅上升的情况下开始要求更高的风险溢价”，跌幅可能会更深。</blockquote> UBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.<blockquote>瑞银全球财富管理策略师周一表示，他们 “预计未来一段时间的波动性将加剧，因为投资者试图根据不充分和参差不齐的数据评估奥密克戎和美联储的风险”。虽然他们建议投资者不要仓促退出风险资产，但以马克·海菲尔为首的策略师表示，货币紧缩可能会给他们的基本情景带来悲观的情况。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-covid-omicron-federal-reserve-51638575944\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-covid-omicron-federal-reserve-51638575944","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138852642","content_text":"Now can we have a correction?\nWe’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.\nThose numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.\nOn Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.\nThe S&P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.\nOmicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.\n“He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.\nThe timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.\nThe thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.\nThe data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.\nDon’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.\nMorgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron\nStock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.\nWhile they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.\n\nThe comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase & Co., who singled out a hawkish turn by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan reiterated on Monday that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.\n“Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”\nUBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6886753,"gmtCreate":1638889516713,"gmtModify":1638889516744,"authorId":3578285722323782,"author":{"id":3578285722323782,"idStr":"3578285722323782","authorId":3578285722323782,"name":"JG_7","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/943a617088822556a2e8fdb01023a8dd","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":606393659,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"},{"id":6879256,"gmtCreate":1638845852864,"gmtModify":1638845852896,"authorId":3582098623642517,"author":{"id":3582098623642517,"idStr":"3582098623642517","authorId":3582098623642517,"name":"小虎一飞冲天","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a55a61195830e019abf5d3cc69681b9","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":606393659,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"👍🏼","text":"👍🏼","html":"👍🏼"},{"id":6875838,"gmtCreate":1638835215832,"gmtModify":1638835215863,"authorId":3574754838536636,"author":{"id":3574754838536636,"idStr":"3574754838536636","authorId":3574754838536636,"name":"Ameliakoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a747ab791603fb0a649736b10ec7454","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":606393659,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Done ","text":"Done ","html":"Done "}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":606949180,"gmtCreate":1638828909778,"gmtModify":1638835560122,"author":{"id":"3559581955535845","authorId":"3559581955535845","name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","vip":2,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[{"categoryType":1104,"badgeId":"99a38ff64bfd44f891fd016771fc8f64-1","name":"超级披露者","description":"在交易分享中开启超级披露","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70e97d213ed3e4f4820224f1366d402f","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/802f4014829adb4e63332fc230b97e42","isScarce":1,"plateColors":{"bgColor":{"dark":"#2f2a1f","tint":"#fcf6e5"},"fontColor":{"dark":"#dea95e","tint":"#885600"}},"effectEnabled":0,"redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLinkType":1,"redirectLink":"https://www.itigerup.com/activity/forapp/star-investor","redirectLinkValidityFrom":1776816000000,"redirectLinkValidityTo":2156198400000,"sortingWeight":0,"wearable":1}],"authorIdStr":"3559581955535845","idStr":"3559581955535845"},"htmlText":"With Omicron and the Feds, no wonder the market was in the doldrums.&nbsp; &nbsp;But if you have high conviction on your favourite stocks, just regard the news as noise.&nbsp; Hold and be strong and watch them grow 10,20 and 30 years time from now. 🎉🎊🎉","listText":"With Omicron and the Feds, no wonder the market was in the doldrums.&nbsp; &nbsp;But if you have high conviction on your favourite stocks, just regard the news as noise.&nbsp; Hold and be strong and watch them grow 10,20 and 30 years time from now. 🎉🎊🎉","text":"With Omicron and the Feds, no wonder the market was in the doldrums. But if you have high conviction on your favourite stocks, just regard the news as noise. Hold and be strong and watch them grow 10,20 and 30 years time from now. 🎉🎊🎉","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":44,"commentSize":33,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606949180","repostId":1138852642,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138852642","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638769615,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1138852642?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-06 13:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138852642","media":"Barrons","summary":"Now can we have a correction?\nWe’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the ye","content":"Now can we have a correction?<blockquote>现在我们可以更正一下了吗？</blockquote> We’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&amp;P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.<blockquote>我们本希望能有更好的结果，比如在年底融化。但是，由于发现了 Covid-19 的奥密克戎变种，股市在黑色星期五暴跌后，上周股市被重创，但这似乎不太可能。标普500指数本周收盘下跌 1.2%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 319.26 点，跌幅 0.9%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.6%。小盘股罗素 2000 指数本周下跌 3.9%，周三收于回调区域。</blockquote> Those numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&amp;P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.<blockquote>这些数字未能反映本周的波动有多大。在周一小幅反弹后，道指周二暴跌652.22点。周三，它在早盘交易中反弹，然后回吐了这些涨幅，然后是一些涨幅，收盘下跌 461.68 点，标普500只有包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）在内的七只股票成功收高。周四，道琼斯指数创下 3 月份以来的最大涨幅，但苹果下跌 0.6%，此前有报道称，该公司正在让供应商为不温不火的 iPhone 需求做好准备。</blockquote> On Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.<blockquote>周五，纳斯达克遭受重创，包括 Adobe (ADBE)、特斯拉 (TSLA) 和英伟达 (NVDA) 在内的大型昂贵成长型股票终于陷入抛售。“Canaccord Genuity 分析师马丁-罗伯格（Martin Roberge）指出：”鉴于许多'成长型'股票的估值过高，后者在本周的调整中首当其冲。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.<blockquote>标普500本周收盘时较 2021 年高点下跌 3.5%，略低于该指数 9 月份的跌幅，当时每个人都预测调整从未到来。这次抛售看起来有更多的腿。对估值和即将到来的财报季的普遍担忧已经一去不复返了，取而代之的是新的 Covid 变种和美联储紧缩周期的开始。</blockquote> Omicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.<blockquote>奥密克戎本身已经够糟糕的了--没有人知道它会对经济造成多大伤害--但随后美联储主席鲍威尔不得不承认，通胀毕竟不是暂时的，缩减通胀的速度可能要快于预期。</blockquote> “He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.<blockquote>“CIBC Private Wealth US 首席投资官戴夫-多纳贝迪安（Dave Donabedian）说：”他如此强烈地依赖这一信息，这告诉你一些战略变化即将到来。</blockquote> The timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.<blockquote>时间有点奇怪。有关在美国发现奥密克戎的头条新闻已经困扰着市场。鲍威尔让事情变得更糟。尽管如此，也许投资者应该问他为什么选择在那一天发表评论，而不是问他的声明本可以更有力。“MKM Partners 首席经济学家迈克尔-达尔达（Michael Darda）说：”想象一下，如果没有变体，演讲会是什么样子。</blockquote> The thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.<blockquote>问题是，鉴于美国经济的实力，鲍威尔采取鹰派立场完全正确。尽管头条新闻大错特错，就业报告依然稳健，失业率降至4.2%，参与率升至61.8%。供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）的非制造业调查达到创纪录的 69.1，而制造业指数也保持在 60 以上。</blockquote> The data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.<blockquote>这些数据非常好，以至于亚特兰大联储对美国第四季度经济增长的 GDPNow 估计最近达到了 9.7%。定于本周五公布的消费者价格指数预计11月份将上涨0.65%。所有这些都表明，经济已经为收紧货币政策做好了准备，即使股市还没有。“达尔达说：”鲍威尔是对的，即使市场有点恐慌。</blockquote> Don’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.<blockquote>如果情况再糟糕一点，也不要感到惊讶。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为美联储对股市的威胁比奥密克戎更大</blockquote> Stock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师表示，股票投资者可能有比新型冠状病毒株的出现更重要的事情需要担心。</blockquote> While they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.<blockquote>虽然他们 “并不那么担心奥密克戎是股市的主要风险因素”，但在美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）暗示可能加速缩减资产购买规模后，策略师们认为其他地方也出现了不利因素。“以迈克尔-威尔逊（Michael Wilson）为首的策略师在给客户的一份报告中写道：”缩减规模正在收紧市场，这将导致估值下降，就像在任何复苏的这个阶段一样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2480f1a0450a30811b2f0b6e1a23b008\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., who&nbsp;singled out a hawkish turn&nbsp;by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan&nbsp;reiterated on Monday&nbsp;that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&amp;P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.<blockquote>这些言论呼应了其他策略师的观点，其中包括摩根大通的策略师，他们指出央行的鹰派转向是其股市前景的主要风险。不过，尽管摩根大通周一重申，其基本情景是股市上涨将持续到明年，但摩根士丹利认为标普500呈走低趋势，估值下降。</blockquote> “Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&amp;P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”<blockquote>“摩根士丹利策略师写道：”由于多种原因，股市正在恢复九个多月前开始的降级进程。他们预测，标普500远期市盈率将下降约 12%，而且 “随着股票投资者在预期长期利率大幅上升的情况下开始要求更高的风险溢价”，跌幅可能会更深。</blockquote> UBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.<blockquote>瑞银全球财富管理策略师周一表示，他们 “预计未来一段时间的波动性将加剧，因为投资者试图根据不充分和参差不齐的数据评估奥密克戎和美联储的风险”。虽然他们建议投资者不要仓促退出风险资产，但以马克·海菲尔为首的策略师表示，货币紧缩可能会给他们的基本情景带来悲观的情况。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-12-06 13:46\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nNow can we have a correction?<blockquote>现在我们可以更正一下了吗？</blockquote> We’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&amp;P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.<blockquote>我们本希望能有更好的结果，比如在年底融化。但是，由于发现了 Covid-19 的奥密克戎变种，股市在黑色星期五暴跌后，上周股市被重创，但这似乎不太可能。标普500指数本周收盘下跌 1.2%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 319.26 点，跌幅 0.9%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.6%。小盘股罗素 2000 指数本周下跌 3.9%，周三收于回调区域。</blockquote> Those numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&amp;P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.<blockquote>这些数字未能反映本周的波动有多大。在周一小幅反弹后，道指周二暴跌652.22点。周三，它在早盘交易中反弹，然后回吐了这些涨幅，然后是一些涨幅，收盘下跌 461.68 点，标普500只有包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）在内的七只股票成功收高。周四，道琼斯指数创下 3 月份以来的最大涨幅，但苹果下跌 0.6%，此前有报道称，该公司正在让供应商为不温不火的 iPhone 需求做好准备。</blockquote> On Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.<blockquote>周五，纳斯达克遭受重创，包括 Adobe (ADBE)、特斯拉 (TSLA) 和英伟达 (NVDA) 在内的大型昂贵成长型股票终于陷入抛售。“Canaccord Genuity 分析师马丁-罗伯格（Martin Roberge）指出：”鉴于许多'成长型'股票的估值过高，后者在本周的调整中首当其冲。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.<blockquote>标普500本周收盘时较 2021 年高点下跌 3.5%，略低于该指数 9 月份的跌幅，当时每个人都预测调整从未到来。这次抛售看起来有更多的腿。对估值和即将到来的财报季的普遍担忧已经一去不复返了，取而代之的是新的 Covid 变种和美联储紧缩周期的开始。</blockquote> Omicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.<blockquote>奥密克戎本身已经够糟糕的了--没有人知道它会对经济造成多大伤害--但随后美联储主席鲍威尔不得不承认，通胀毕竟不是暂时的，缩减通胀的速度可能要快于预期。</blockquote> “He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.<blockquote>“CIBC Private Wealth US 首席投资官戴夫-多纳贝迪安（Dave Donabedian）说：”他如此强烈地依赖这一信息，这告诉你一些战略变化即将到来。</blockquote> The timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.<blockquote>时间有点奇怪。有关在美国发现奥密克戎的头条新闻已经困扰着市场。鲍威尔让事情变得更糟。尽管如此，也许投资者应该问他为什么选择在那一天发表评论，而不是问他的声明本可以更有力。“MKM Partners 首席经济学家迈克尔-达尔达（Michael Darda）说：”想象一下，如果没有变体，演讲会是什么样子。</blockquote> The thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.<blockquote>问题是，鉴于美国经济的实力，鲍威尔采取鹰派立场完全正确。尽管头条新闻大错特错，就业报告依然稳健，失业率降至4.2%，参与率升至61.8%。供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）的非制造业调查达到创纪录的 69.1，而制造业指数也保持在 60 以上。</blockquote> The data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.<blockquote>这些数据非常好，以至于亚特兰大联储对美国第四季度经济增长的 GDPNow 估计最近达到了 9.7%。定于本周五公布的消费者价格指数预计11月份将上涨0.65%。所有这些都表明，经济已经为收紧货币政策做好了准备，即使股市还没有。“达尔达说：”鲍威尔是对的，即使市场有点恐慌。</blockquote> Don’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.<blockquote>如果情况再糟糕一点，也不要感到惊讶。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为美联储对股市的威胁比奥密克戎更大</blockquote> Stock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师表示，股票投资者可能有比新型冠状病毒株的出现更重要的事情需要担心。</blockquote> While they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.<blockquote>虽然他们 “并不那么担心奥密克戎是股市的主要风险因素”，但在美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）暗示可能加速缩减资产购买规模后，策略师们认为其他地方也出现了不利因素。“以迈克尔-威尔逊（Michael Wilson）为首的策略师在给客户的一份报告中写道：”缩减规模正在收紧市场，这将导致估值下降，就像在任何复苏的这个阶段一样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2480f1a0450a30811b2f0b6e1a23b008\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., who&nbsp;singled out a hawkish turn&nbsp;by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan&nbsp;reiterated on Monday&nbsp;that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&amp;P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.<blockquote>这些言论呼应了其他策略师的观点，其中包括摩根大通的策略师，他们指出央行的鹰派转向是其股市前景的主要风险。不过，尽管摩根大通周一重申，其基本情景是股市上涨将持续到明年，但摩根士丹利认为标普500呈走低趋势，估值下降。</blockquote> “Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&amp;P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”<blockquote>“摩根士丹利策略师写道：”由于多种原因，股市正在恢复九个多月前开始的降级进程。他们预测，标普500远期市盈率将下降约 12%，而且 “随着股票投资者在预期长期利率大幅上升的情况下开始要求更高的风险溢价”，跌幅可能会更深。</blockquote> UBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.<blockquote>瑞银全球财富管理策略师周一表示，他们 “预计未来一段时间的波动性将加剧，因为投资者试图根据不充分和参差不齐的数据评估奥密克戎和美联储的风险”。虽然他们建议投资者不要仓促退出风险资产，但以马克·海菲尔为首的策略师表示，货币紧缩可能会给他们的基本情景带来悲观的情况。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-covid-omicron-federal-reserve-51638575944\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-covid-omicron-federal-reserve-51638575944","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138852642","content_text":"Now can we have a correction?\nWe’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.\nThose numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.\nOn Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.\nThe S&P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.\nOmicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.\n“He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.\nThe timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.\nThe thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.\nThe data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.\nDon’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.\nMorgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron\nStock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.\nWhile they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.\n\nThe comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase & Co., who singled out a hawkish turn by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan reiterated on Monday that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.\n“Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”\nUBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6881064,"gmtCreate":1638855918309,"gmtModify":1638855918309,"authorId":3559581955535845,"author":{"id":3559581955535845,"idStr":"3559581955535845","authorId":3559581955535845,"name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","vip":2,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"99a38ff64bfd44f891fd016771fc8f64-1","templateUuid":"99a38ff64bfd44f891fd016771fc8f64","name":"超级披露者","description":"在交易分享中开启超级披露","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/802f4014829adb4e63332fc230b97e42","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70e97d213ed3e4f4820224f1366d402f","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLinkType":1,"redirectLink":"https://www.itigerup.com/activity/forapp/star-investor","redirectLinkValidityFrom":1776816000000,"redirectLinkValidityTo":2156198400000,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.04.23","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1104,"isScarce":1,"effectEnabled":0,"wearingSort":1},"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[{"categoryType":1104,"badgeId":"99a38ff64bfd44f891fd016771fc8f64-1","name":"超级披露者","description":"在交易分享中开启超级披露","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70e97d213ed3e4f4820224f1366d402f","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/802f4014829adb4e63332fc230b97e42","isScarce":1,"plateColors":{"bgColor":{"dark":"#2f2a1f","tint":"#fcf6e5"},"fontColor":{"dark":"#dea95e","tint":"#885600"}},"effectEnabled":0,"redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLinkType":1,"redirectLink":"https://www.itigerup.com/activity/forapp/star-investor","redirectLinkValidityFrom":1776816000000,"redirectLinkValidityTo":2156198400000,"sortingWeight":0,"wearable":1}]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":606949180,"type":1,"supId":6874257,"prevId":0,"content":"I agree","text":"I agree","html":"I agree"},{"id":6880576,"gmtCreate":1638853000343,"gmtModify":1638853000343,"authorId":3559581955535845,"author":{"id":3559581955535845,"idStr":"3559581955535845","authorId":3559581955535845,"name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","vip":2,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"99a38ff64bfd44f891fd016771fc8f64-1","templateUuid":"99a38ff64bfd44f891fd016771fc8f64","name":"超级披露者","description":"在交易分享中开启超级披露","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/802f4014829adb4e63332fc230b97e42","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70e97d213ed3e4f4820224f1366d402f","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLinkType":1,"redirectLink":"https://www.itigerup.com/activity/forapp/star-investor","redirectLinkValidityFrom":1776816000000,"redirectLinkValidityTo":2156198400000,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.04.23","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1104,"isScarce":1,"effectEnabled":0,"wearingSort":1},"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[{"categoryType":1104,"badgeId":"99a38ff64bfd44f891fd016771fc8f64-1","name":"超级披露者","description":"在交易分享中开启超级披露","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70e97d213ed3e4f4820224f1366d402f","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/802f4014829adb4e63332fc230b97e42","isScarce":1,"plateColors":{"bgColor":{"dark":"#2f2a1f","tint":"#fcf6e5"},"fontColor":{"dark":"#dea95e","tint":"#885600"}},"effectEnabled":0,"redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLinkType":1,"redirectLink":"https://www.itigerup.com/activity/forapp/star-investor","redirectLinkValidityFrom":1776816000000,"redirectLinkValidityTo":2156198400000,"sortingWeight":0,"wearable":1}]},"repliedAuthorId":3563664364598207,"repliedAuthor":{"id":3563664364598207,"idStr":"3563664364598207","authorId":3563664364598207,"name":"56a3dd2f","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"objectId":606949180,"type":1,"supId":6877643,"prevId":6879775,"content":"Big Thank You!","text":"Big Thank You!","html":"Big Thank You!"},{"id":6879775,"gmtCreate":1638848171548,"gmtModify":1638848171581,"authorId":3563664364598207,"author":{"id":3563664364598207,"idStr":"3563664364598207","authorId":3563664364598207,"name":"56a3dd2f","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":3559581955535845,"repliedAuthor":{"id":3559581955535845,"idStr":"3559581955535845","authorId":3559581955535845,"name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","vip":2,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"99a38ff64bfd44f891fd016771fc8f64-1","templateUuid":"99a38ff64bfd44f891fd016771fc8f64","name":"超级披露者","description":"在交易分享中开启超级披露","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/802f4014829adb4e63332fc230b97e42","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70e97d213ed3e4f4820224f1366d402f","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLinkType":1,"redirectLink":"https://www.itigerup.com/activity/forapp/star-investor","redirectLinkValidityFrom":1776816000000,"redirectLinkValidityTo":2156198400000,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.04.23","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1104,"isScarce":1,"effectEnabled":0,"wearingSort":1},"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[{"categoryType":1104,"badgeId":"99a38ff64bfd44f891fd016771fc8f64-1","name":"超级披露者","description":"在交易分享中开启超级披露","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70e97d213ed3e4f4820224f1366d402f","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/802f4014829adb4e63332fc230b97e42","isScarce":1,"plateColors":{"bgColor":{"dark":"#2f2a1f","tint":"#fcf6e5"},"fontColor":{"dark":"#dea95e","tint":"#885600"}},"effectEnabled":0,"redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLinkType":1,"redirectLink":"https://www.itigerup.com/activity/forapp/star-investor","redirectLinkValidityFrom":1776816000000,"redirectLinkValidityTo":2156198400000,"sortingWeight":0,"wearable":1}]},"objectId":606949180,"type":1,"supId":6877643,"prevId":6879754,"content":"No problem. Happy to share with like minded friends 😊👍","text":"No problem. Happy to share with like minded friends 😊👍","html":"No problem. Happy to share with like minded friends 😊👍"},{"id":6879754,"gmtCreate":1638847935128,"gmtModify":1638847935128,"authorId":3559581955535845,"author":{"id":3559581955535845,"idStr":"3559581955535845","authorId":3559581955535845,"name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","vip":2,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"99a38ff64bfd44f891fd016771fc8f64-1","templateUuid":"99a38ff64bfd44f891fd016771fc8f64","name":"超级披露者","description":"在交易分享中开启超级披露","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/802f4014829adb4e63332fc230b97e42","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70e97d213ed3e4f4820224f1366d402f","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLinkType":1,"redirectLink":"https://www.itigerup.com/activity/forapp/star-investor","redirectLinkValidityFrom":1776816000000,"redirectLinkValidityTo":2156198400000,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.04.23","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1104,"isScarce":1,"effectEnabled":0,"wearingSort":1},"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[{"categoryType":1104,"badgeId":"99a38ff64bfd44f891fd016771fc8f64-1","name":"超级披露者","description":"在交易分享中开启超级披露","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70e97d213ed3e4f4820224f1366d402f","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/802f4014829adb4e63332fc230b97e42","isScarce":1,"plateColors":{"bgColor":{"dark":"#2f2a1f","tint":"#fcf6e5"},"fontColor":{"dark":"#dea95e","tint":"#885600"}},"effectEnabled":0,"redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLinkType":1,"redirectLink":"https://www.itigerup.com/activity/forapp/star-investor","redirectLinkValidityFrom":1776816000000,"redirectLinkValidityTo":2156198400000,"sortingWeight":0,"wearable":1}]},"repliedAuthorId":3563664364598207,"repliedAuthor":{"id":3563664364598207,"idStr":"3563664364598207","authorId":3563664364598207,"name":"56a3dd2f","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"objectId":606949180,"type":1,"supId":6877643,"prevId":6879303,"content":"I am definitely interested and will check the blog.&nbsp; Thanks for sharing.","text":"I am definitely interested and will check the blog.&nbsp; Thanks for sharing.","html":"I am definitely interested and will check the blog.&nbsp; Thanks for sharing."},{"id":6879303,"gmtCreate":1638846098292,"gmtModify":1638847001761,"authorId":3563664364598207,"author":{"id":3563664364598207,"idStr":"3563664364598207","authorId":3563664364598207,"name":"56a3dd2f","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":3559581955535845,"repliedAuthor":{"id":3559581955535845,"idStr":"3559581955535845","authorId":3559581955535845,"name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","vip":2,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"99a38ff64bfd44f891fd016771fc8f64-1","templateUuid":"99a38ff64bfd44f891fd016771fc8f64","name":"超级披露者","description":"在交易分享中开启超级披露","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/802f4014829adb4e63332fc230b97e42","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70e97d213ed3e4f4820224f1366d402f","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLinkType":1,"redirectLink":"https://www.itigerup.com/activity/forapp/star-investor","redirectLinkValidityFrom":1776816000000,"redirectLinkValidityTo":2156198400000,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.04.23","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1104,"isScarce":1,"effectEnabled":0,"wearingSort":1},"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[{"categoryType":1104,"badgeId":"99a38ff64bfd44f891fd016771fc8f64-1","name":"超级披露者","description":"在交易分享中开启超级披露","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70e97d213ed3e4f4820224f1366d402f","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/802f4014829adb4e63332fc230b97e42","isScarce":1,"plateColors":{"bgColor":{"dark":"#2f2a1f","tint":"#fcf6e5"},"fontColor":{"dark":"#dea95e","tint":"#885600"}},"effectEnabled":0,"redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLinkType":1,"redirectLink":"https://www.itigerup.com/activity/forapp/star-investor","redirectLinkValidityFrom":1776816000000,"redirectLinkValidityTo":2156198400000,"sortingWeight":0,"wearable":1}]},"objectId":606949180,"type":1,"supId":6877643,"prevId":6879124,"content":"Just in case you are interested, below is her blog. She rarely post these days though&nbsp; https://ladyyoucanbefree.com/2020/08/23/my-stock-report-card-for-jan-aug-2020-2-mil-profit-countdown/","text":"Just in case you are interested, below is her blog. She rarely post these days though&nbsp; https://ladyyoucanbefree.com/2020/08/23/my-stock-report-card-for-jan-aug-2020-2-mil-profit-countdown/","html":"Just in case you are interested, below is her blog. She rarely post these days though&nbsp; https://ladyyoucanbefree.com/2020/08/23/my-stock-report-card-for-jan-aug-2020-2-mil-profit-countdown/"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":606969414,"gmtCreate":1638814000046,"gmtModify":1638814000046,"author":{"id":"3575510623638007","authorId":"3575510623638007","name":"6cdf22ea","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3575510623638007","idStr":"3575510623638007"},"htmlText":"Everybody wants the stock market to rise including the FED","listText":"Everybody wants the stock market to rise including the FED","text":"Everybody wants the stock market to rise including the FED","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606969414","repostId":1138852642,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138852642","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638769615,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1138852642?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-06 13:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138852642","media":"Barrons","summary":"Now can we have a correction?\nWe’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the ye","content":"Now can we have a correction?<blockquote>现在我们可以更正一下了吗？</blockquote> We’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&amp;P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.<blockquote>我们本希望能有更好的结果，比如在年底融化。但是，由于发现了 Covid-19 的奥密克戎变种，股市在黑色星期五暴跌后，上周股市被重创，但这似乎不太可能。标普500指数本周收盘下跌 1.2%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 319.26 点，跌幅 0.9%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.6%。小盘股罗素 2000 指数本周下跌 3.9%，周三收于回调区域。</blockquote> Those numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&amp;P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.<blockquote>这些数字未能反映本周的波动有多大。在周一小幅反弹后，道指周二暴跌652.22点。周三，它在早盘交易中反弹，然后回吐了这些涨幅，然后是一些涨幅，收盘下跌 461.68 点，标普500只有包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）在内的七只股票成功收高。周四，道琼斯指数创下 3 月份以来的最大涨幅，但苹果下跌 0.6%，此前有报道称，该公司正在让供应商为不温不火的 iPhone 需求做好准备。</blockquote> On Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.<blockquote>周五，纳斯达克遭受重创，包括 Adobe (ADBE)、特斯拉 (TSLA) 和英伟达 (NVDA) 在内的大型昂贵成长型股票终于陷入抛售。“Canaccord Genuity 分析师马丁-罗伯格（Martin Roberge）指出：”鉴于许多'成长型'股票的估值过高，后者在本周的调整中首当其冲。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.<blockquote>标普500本周收盘时较 2021 年高点下跌 3.5%，略低于该指数 9 月份的跌幅，当时每个人都预测调整从未到来。这次抛售看起来有更多的腿。对估值和即将到来的财报季的普遍担忧已经一去不复返了，取而代之的是新的 Covid 变种和美联储紧缩周期的开始。</blockquote> Omicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.<blockquote>奥密克戎本身已经够糟糕的了--没有人知道它会对经济造成多大伤害--但随后美联储主席鲍威尔不得不承认，通胀毕竟不是暂时的，缩减通胀的速度可能要快于预期。</blockquote> “He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.<blockquote>“CIBC Private Wealth US 首席投资官戴夫-多纳贝迪安（Dave Donabedian）说：”他如此强烈地依赖这一信息，这告诉你一些战略变化即将到来。</blockquote> The timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.<blockquote>时间有点奇怪。有关在美国发现奥密克戎的头条新闻已经困扰着市场。鲍威尔让事情变得更糟。尽管如此，也许投资者应该问他为什么选择在那一天发表评论，而不是问他的声明本可以更有力。“MKM Partners 首席经济学家迈克尔-达尔达（Michael Darda）说：”想象一下，如果没有变体，演讲会是什么样子。</blockquote> The thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.<blockquote>问题是，鉴于美国经济的实力，鲍威尔采取鹰派立场完全正确。尽管头条新闻大错特错，就业报告依然稳健，失业率降至4.2%，参与率升至61.8%。供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）的非制造业调查达到创纪录的 69.1，而制造业指数也保持在 60 以上。</blockquote> The data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.<blockquote>这些数据非常好，以至于亚特兰大联储对美国第四季度经济增长的 GDPNow 估计最近达到了 9.7%。定于本周五公布的消费者价格指数预计11月份将上涨0.65%。所有这些都表明，经济已经为收紧货币政策做好了准备，即使股市还没有。“达尔达说：”鲍威尔是对的，即使市场有点恐慌。</blockquote> Don’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.<blockquote>如果情况再糟糕一点，也不要感到惊讶。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为美联储对股市的威胁比奥密克戎更大</blockquote> Stock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师表示，股票投资者可能有比新型冠状病毒株的出现更重要的事情需要担心。</blockquote> While they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.<blockquote>虽然他们 “并不那么担心奥密克戎是股市的主要风险因素”，但在美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）暗示可能加速缩减资产购买规模后，策略师们认为其他地方也出现了不利因素。“以迈克尔-威尔逊（Michael Wilson）为首的策略师在给客户的一份报告中写道：”缩减规模正在收紧市场，这将导致估值下降，就像在任何复苏的这个阶段一样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2480f1a0450a30811b2f0b6e1a23b008\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., who&nbsp;singled out a hawkish turn&nbsp;by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan&nbsp;reiterated on Monday&nbsp;that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&amp;P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.<blockquote>这些言论呼应了其他策略师的观点，其中包括摩根大通的策略师，他们指出央行的鹰派转向是其股市前景的主要风险。不过，尽管摩根大通周一重申，其基本情景是股市上涨将持续到明年，但摩根士丹利认为标普500呈走低趋势，估值下降。</blockquote> “Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&amp;P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”<blockquote>“摩根士丹利策略师写道：”由于多种原因，股市正在恢复九个多月前开始的降级进程。他们预测，标普500远期市盈率将下降约 12%，而且 “随着股票投资者在预期长期利率大幅上升的情况下开始要求更高的风险溢价”，跌幅可能会更深。</blockquote> UBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.<blockquote>瑞银全球财富管理策略师周一表示，他们 “预计未来一段时间的波动性将加剧，因为投资者试图根据不充分和参差不齐的数据评估奥密克戎和美联储的风险”。虽然他们建议投资者不要仓促退出风险资产，但以马克·海菲尔为首的策略师表示，货币紧缩可能会给他们的基本情景带来悲观的情况。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-12-06 13:46\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nNow can we have a correction?<blockquote>现在我们可以更正一下了吗？</blockquote> We’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&amp;P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.<blockquote>我们本希望能有更好的结果，比如在年底融化。但是，由于发现了 Covid-19 的奥密克戎变种，股市在黑色星期五暴跌后，上周股市被重创，但这似乎不太可能。标普500指数本周收盘下跌 1.2%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 319.26 点，跌幅 0.9%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.6%。小盘股罗素 2000 指数本周下跌 3.9%，周三收于回调区域。</blockquote> Those numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&amp;P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.<blockquote>这些数字未能反映本周的波动有多大。在周一小幅反弹后，道指周二暴跌652.22点。周三，它在早盘交易中反弹，然后回吐了这些涨幅，然后是一些涨幅，收盘下跌 461.68 点，标普500只有包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）在内的七只股票成功收高。周四，道琼斯指数创下 3 月份以来的最大涨幅，但苹果下跌 0.6%，此前有报道称，该公司正在让供应商为不温不火的 iPhone 需求做好准备。</blockquote> On Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.<blockquote>周五，纳斯达克遭受重创，包括 Adobe (ADBE)、特斯拉 (TSLA) 和英伟达 (NVDA) 在内的大型昂贵成长型股票终于陷入抛售。“Canaccord Genuity 分析师马丁-罗伯格（Martin Roberge）指出：”鉴于许多'成长型'股票的估值过高，后者在本周的调整中首当其冲。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.<blockquote>标普500本周收盘时较 2021 年高点下跌 3.5%，略低于该指数 9 月份的跌幅，当时每个人都预测调整从未到来。这次抛售看起来有更多的腿。对估值和即将到来的财报季的普遍担忧已经一去不复返了，取而代之的是新的 Covid 变种和美联储紧缩周期的开始。</blockquote> Omicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.<blockquote>奥密克戎本身已经够糟糕的了--没有人知道它会对经济造成多大伤害--但随后美联储主席鲍威尔不得不承认，通胀毕竟不是暂时的，缩减通胀的速度可能要快于预期。</blockquote> “He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.<blockquote>“CIBC Private Wealth US 首席投资官戴夫-多纳贝迪安（Dave Donabedian）说：”他如此强烈地依赖这一信息，这告诉你一些战略变化即将到来。</blockquote> The timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.<blockquote>时间有点奇怪。有关在美国发现奥密克戎的头条新闻已经困扰着市场。鲍威尔让事情变得更糟。尽管如此，也许投资者应该问他为什么选择在那一天发表评论，而不是问他的声明本可以更有力。“MKM Partners 首席经济学家迈克尔-达尔达（Michael Darda）说：”想象一下，如果没有变体，演讲会是什么样子。</blockquote> The thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.<blockquote>问题是，鉴于美国经济的实力，鲍威尔采取鹰派立场完全正确。尽管头条新闻大错特错，就业报告依然稳健，失业率降至4.2%，参与率升至61.8%。供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）的非制造业调查达到创纪录的 69.1，而制造业指数也保持在 60 以上。</blockquote> The data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.<blockquote>这些数据非常好，以至于亚特兰大联储对美国第四季度经济增长的 GDPNow 估计最近达到了 9.7%。定于本周五公布的消费者价格指数预计11月份将上涨0.65%。所有这些都表明，经济已经为收紧货币政策做好了准备，即使股市还没有。“达尔达说：”鲍威尔是对的，即使市场有点恐慌。</blockquote> Don’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.<blockquote>如果情况再糟糕一点，也不要感到惊讶。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为美联储对股市的威胁比奥密克戎更大</blockquote> Stock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师表示，股票投资者可能有比新型冠状病毒株的出现更重要的事情需要担心。</blockquote> While they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.<blockquote>虽然他们 “并不那么担心奥密克戎是股市的主要风险因素”，但在美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）暗示可能加速缩减资产购买规模后，策略师们认为其他地方也出现了不利因素。“以迈克尔-威尔逊（Michael Wilson）为首的策略师在给客户的一份报告中写道：”缩减规模正在收紧市场，这将导致估值下降，就像在任何复苏的这个阶段一样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2480f1a0450a30811b2f0b6e1a23b008\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., who&nbsp;singled out a hawkish turn&nbsp;by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan&nbsp;reiterated on Monday&nbsp;that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&amp;P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.<blockquote>这些言论呼应了其他策略师的观点，其中包括摩根大通的策略师，他们指出央行的鹰派转向是其股市前景的主要风险。不过，尽管摩根大通周一重申，其基本情景是股市上涨将持续到明年，但摩根士丹利认为标普500呈走低趋势，估值下降。</blockquote> “Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&amp;P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”<blockquote>“摩根士丹利策略师写道：”由于多种原因，股市正在恢复九个多月前开始的降级进程。他们预测，标普500远期市盈率将下降约 12%，而且 “随着股票投资者在预期长期利率大幅上升的情况下开始要求更高的风险溢价”，跌幅可能会更深。</blockquote> UBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.<blockquote>瑞银全球财富管理策略师周一表示，他们 “预计未来一段时间的波动性将加剧，因为投资者试图根据不充分和参差不齐的数据评估奥密克戎和美联储的风险”。虽然他们建议投资者不要仓促退出风险资产，但以马克·海菲尔为首的策略师表示，货币紧缩可能会给他们的基本情景带来悲观的情况。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-covid-omicron-federal-reserve-51638575944\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-covid-omicron-federal-reserve-51638575944","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138852642","content_text":"Now can we have a correction?\nWe’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.\nThose numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.\nOn Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.\nThe S&P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.\nOmicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.\n“He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.\nThe timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.\nThe thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.\nThe data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.\nDon’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.\nMorgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron\nStock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.\nWhile they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.\n\nThe comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase & Co., who singled out a hawkish turn by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan reiterated on Monday that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.\n“Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”\nUBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":606935726,"gmtCreate":1638807037566,"gmtModify":1638807038086,"author":{"id":"4087452914358580","authorId":"4087452914358580","name":"SanWangtikup","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7f061d50a9f915d0ce8e8c879871960","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"4087452914358580","idStr":"4087452914358580"},"htmlText":"Yea&nbsp;","listText":"Yea&nbsp;","text":"Yea","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606935726","repostId":1138852642,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138852642","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638769615,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1138852642?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-06 13:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138852642","media":"Barrons","summary":"Now can we have a correction?\nWe’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the ye","content":"Now can we have a correction?<blockquote>现在我们可以更正一下了吗？</blockquote> We’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&amp;P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.<blockquote>我们本希望能有更好的结果，比如在年底融化。但是，由于发现了 Covid-19 的奥密克戎变种，股市在黑色星期五暴跌后，上周股市被重创，但这似乎不太可能。标普500指数本周收盘下跌 1.2%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 319.26 点，跌幅 0.9%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.6%。小盘股罗素 2000 指数本周下跌 3.9%，周三收于回调区域。</blockquote> Those numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&amp;P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.<blockquote>这些数字未能反映本周的波动有多大。在周一小幅反弹后，道指周二暴跌652.22点。周三，它在早盘交易中反弹，然后回吐了这些涨幅，然后是一些涨幅，收盘下跌 461.68 点，标普500只有包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）在内的七只股票成功收高。周四，道琼斯指数创下 3 月份以来的最大涨幅，但苹果下跌 0.6%，此前有报道称，该公司正在让供应商为不温不火的 iPhone 需求做好准备。</blockquote> On Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.<blockquote>周五，纳斯达克遭受重创，包括 Adobe (ADBE)、特斯拉 (TSLA) 和英伟达 (NVDA) 在内的大型昂贵成长型股票终于陷入抛售。“Canaccord Genuity 分析师马丁-罗伯格（Martin Roberge）指出：”鉴于许多'成长型'股票的估值过高，后者在本周的调整中首当其冲。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.<blockquote>标普500本周收盘时较 2021 年高点下跌 3.5%，略低于该指数 9 月份的跌幅，当时每个人都预测调整从未到来。这次抛售看起来有更多的腿。对估值和即将到来的财报季的普遍担忧已经一去不复返了，取而代之的是新的 Covid 变种和美联储紧缩周期的开始。</blockquote> Omicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.<blockquote>奥密克戎本身已经够糟糕的了--没有人知道它会对经济造成多大伤害--但随后美联储主席鲍威尔不得不承认，通胀毕竟不是暂时的，缩减通胀的速度可能要快于预期。</blockquote> “He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.<blockquote>“CIBC Private Wealth US 首席投资官戴夫-多纳贝迪安（Dave Donabedian）说：”他如此强烈地依赖这一信息，这告诉你一些战略变化即将到来。</blockquote> The timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.<blockquote>时间有点奇怪。有关在美国发现奥密克戎的头条新闻已经困扰着市场。鲍威尔让事情变得更糟。尽管如此，也许投资者应该问他为什么选择在那一天发表评论，而不是问他的声明本可以更有力。“MKM Partners 首席经济学家迈克尔-达尔达（Michael Darda）说：”想象一下，如果没有变体，演讲会是什么样子。</blockquote> The thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.<blockquote>问题是，鉴于美国经济的实力，鲍威尔采取鹰派立场完全正确。尽管头条新闻大错特错，就业报告依然稳健，失业率降至4.2%，参与率升至61.8%。供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）的非制造业调查达到创纪录的 69.1，而制造业指数也保持在 60 以上。</blockquote> The data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.<blockquote>这些数据非常好，以至于亚特兰大联储对美国第四季度经济增长的 GDPNow 估计最近达到了 9.7%。定于本周五公布的消费者价格指数预计11月份将上涨0.65%。所有这些都表明，经济已经为收紧货币政策做好了准备，即使股市还没有。“达尔达说：”鲍威尔是对的，即使市场有点恐慌。</blockquote> Don’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.<blockquote>如果情况再糟糕一点，也不要感到惊讶。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为美联储对股市的威胁比奥密克戎更大</blockquote> Stock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师表示，股票投资者可能有比新型冠状病毒株的出现更重要的事情需要担心。</blockquote> While they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.<blockquote>虽然他们 “并不那么担心奥密克戎是股市的主要风险因素”，但在美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）暗示可能加速缩减资产购买规模后，策略师们认为其他地方也出现了不利因素。“以迈克尔-威尔逊（Michael Wilson）为首的策略师在给客户的一份报告中写道：”缩减规模正在收紧市场，这将导致估值下降，就像在任何复苏的这个阶段一样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2480f1a0450a30811b2f0b6e1a23b008\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., who&nbsp;singled out a hawkish turn&nbsp;by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan&nbsp;reiterated on Monday&nbsp;that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&amp;P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.<blockquote>这些言论呼应了其他策略师的观点，其中包括摩根大通的策略师，他们指出央行的鹰派转向是其股市前景的主要风险。不过，尽管摩根大通周一重申，其基本情景是股市上涨将持续到明年，但摩根士丹利认为标普500呈走低趋势，估值下降。</blockquote> “Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&amp;P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”<blockquote>“摩根士丹利策略师写道：”由于多种原因，股市正在恢复九个多月前开始的降级进程。他们预测，标普500远期市盈率将下降约 12%，而且 “随着股票投资者在预期长期利率大幅上升的情况下开始要求更高的风险溢价”，跌幅可能会更深。</blockquote> UBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.<blockquote>瑞银全球财富管理策略师周一表示，他们 “预计未来一段时间的波动性将加剧，因为投资者试图根据不充分和参差不齐的数据评估奥密克戎和美联储的风险”。虽然他们建议投资者不要仓促退出风险资产，但以马克·海菲尔为首的策略师表示，货币紧缩可能会给他们的基本情景带来悲观的情况。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-12-06 13:46\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nNow can we have a correction?<blockquote>现在我们可以更正一下了吗？</blockquote> We’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&amp;P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.<blockquote>我们本希望能有更好的结果，比如在年底融化。但是，由于发现了 Covid-19 的奥密克戎变种，股市在黑色星期五暴跌后，上周股市被重创，但这似乎不太可能。标普500指数本周收盘下跌 1.2%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 319.26 点，跌幅 0.9%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.6%。小盘股罗素 2000 指数本周下跌 3.9%，周三收于回调区域。</blockquote> Those numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&amp;P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.<blockquote>这些数字未能反映本周的波动有多大。在周一小幅反弹后，道指周二暴跌652.22点。周三，它在早盘交易中反弹，然后回吐了这些涨幅，然后是一些涨幅，收盘下跌 461.68 点，标普500只有包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）在内的七只股票成功收高。周四，道琼斯指数创下 3 月份以来的最大涨幅，但苹果下跌 0.6%，此前有报道称，该公司正在让供应商为不温不火的 iPhone 需求做好准备。</blockquote> On Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.<blockquote>周五，纳斯达克遭受重创，包括 Adobe (ADBE)、特斯拉 (TSLA) 和英伟达 (NVDA) 在内的大型昂贵成长型股票终于陷入抛售。“Canaccord Genuity 分析师马丁-罗伯格（Martin Roberge）指出：”鉴于许多'成长型'股票的估值过高，后者在本周的调整中首当其冲。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.<blockquote>标普500本周收盘时较 2021 年高点下跌 3.5%，略低于该指数 9 月份的跌幅，当时每个人都预测调整从未到来。这次抛售看起来有更多的腿。对估值和即将到来的财报季的普遍担忧已经一去不复返了，取而代之的是新的 Covid 变种和美联储紧缩周期的开始。</blockquote> Omicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.<blockquote>奥密克戎本身已经够糟糕的了--没有人知道它会对经济造成多大伤害--但随后美联储主席鲍威尔不得不承认，通胀毕竟不是暂时的，缩减通胀的速度可能要快于预期。</blockquote> “He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.<blockquote>“CIBC Private Wealth US 首席投资官戴夫-多纳贝迪安（Dave Donabedian）说：”他如此强烈地依赖这一信息，这告诉你一些战略变化即将到来。</blockquote> The timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.<blockquote>时间有点奇怪。有关在美国发现奥密克戎的头条新闻已经困扰着市场。鲍威尔让事情变得更糟。尽管如此，也许投资者应该问他为什么选择在那一天发表评论，而不是问他的声明本可以更有力。“MKM Partners 首席经济学家迈克尔-达尔达（Michael Darda）说：”想象一下，如果没有变体，演讲会是什么样子。</blockquote> The thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.<blockquote>问题是，鉴于美国经济的实力，鲍威尔采取鹰派立场完全正确。尽管头条新闻大错特错，就业报告依然稳健，失业率降至4.2%，参与率升至61.8%。供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）的非制造业调查达到创纪录的 69.1，而制造业指数也保持在 60 以上。</blockquote> The data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.<blockquote>这些数据非常好，以至于亚特兰大联储对美国第四季度经济增长的 GDPNow 估计最近达到了 9.7%。定于本周五公布的消费者价格指数预计11月份将上涨0.65%。所有这些都表明，经济已经为收紧货币政策做好了准备，即使股市还没有。“达尔达说：”鲍威尔是对的，即使市场有点恐慌。</blockquote> Don’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.<blockquote>如果情况再糟糕一点，也不要感到惊讶。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为美联储对股市的威胁比奥密克戎更大</blockquote> Stock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师表示，股票投资者可能有比新型冠状病毒株的出现更重要的事情需要担心。</blockquote> While they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.<blockquote>虽然他们 “并不那么担心奥密克戎是股市的主要风险因素”，但在美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）暗示可能加速缩减资产购买规模后，策略师们认为其他地方也出现了不利因素。“以迈克尔-威尔逊（Michael Wilson）为首的策略师在给客户的一份报告中写道：”缩减规模正在收紧市场，这将导致估值下降，就像在任何复苏的这个阶段一样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2480f1a0450a30811b2f0b6e1a23b008\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., who&nbsp;singled out a hawkish turn&nbsp;by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan&nbsp;reiterated on Monday&nbsp;that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&amp;P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.<blockquote>这些言论呼应了其他策略师的观点，其中包括摩根大通的策略师，他们指出央行的鹰派转向是其股市前景的主要风险。不过，尽管摩根大通周一重申，其基本情景是股市上涨将持续到明年，但摩根士丹利认为标普500呈走低趋势，估值下降。</blockquote> “Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&amp;P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”<blockquote>“摩根士丹利策略师写道：”由于多种原因，股市正在恢复九个多月前开始的降级进程。他们预测，标普500远期市盈率将下降约 12%，而且 “随着股票投资者在预期长期利率大幅上升的情况下开始要求更高的风险溢价”，跌幅可能会更深。</blockquote> UBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.<blockquote>瑞银全球财富管理策略师周一表示，他们 “预计未来一段时间的波动性将加剧，因为投资者试图根据不充分和参差不齐的数据评估奥密克戎和美联储的风险”。虽然他们建议投资者不要仓促退出风险资产，但以马克·海菲尔为首的策略师表示，货币紧缩可能会给他们的基本情景带来悲观的情况。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-covid-omicron-federal-reserve-51638575944\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-covid-omicron-federal-reserve-51638575944","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138852642","content_text":"Now can we have a correction?\nWe’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.\nThose numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.\nOn Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.\nThe S&P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.\nOmicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.\n“He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.\nThe timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.\nThe thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.\nThe data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.\nDon’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.\nMorgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron\nStock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.\nWhile they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.\n\nThe comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase & Co., who singled out a hawkish turn by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan reiterated on Monday that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.\n“Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”\nUBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":606994319,"gmtCreate":1638806057630,"gmtModify":1638806132539,"author":{"id":"4092138473478360","authorId":"4092138473478360","name":"Beli","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12287da3d64d63968897c06e82fb422b","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"4092138473478360","idStr":"4092138473478360"},"htmlText":"Correction badly needed. Don’t hide!&nbsp;","listText":"Correction badly needed. Don’t hide!&nbsp;","text":"Correction badly needed. Don’t hide!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606994319","repostId":1138852642,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138852642","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638769615,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1138852642?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-06 13:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138852642","media":"Barrons","summary":"Now can we have a correction?\nWe’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the ye","content":"Now can we have a correction?<blockquote>现在我们可以更正一下了吗？</blockquote> We’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&amp;P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.<blockquote>我们本希望能有更好的结果，比如在年底融化。但是，由于发现了 Covid-19 的奥密克戎变种，股市在黑色星期五暴跌后，上周股市被重创，但这似乎不太可能。标普500指数本周收盘下跌 1.2%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 319.26 点，跌幅 0.9%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.6%。小盘股罗素 2000 指数本周下跌 3.9%，周三收于回调区域。</blockquote> Those numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&amp;P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.<blockquote>这些数字未能反映本周的波动有多大。在周一小幅反弹后，道指周二暴跌652.22点。周三，它在早盘交易中反弹，然后回吐了这些涨幅，然后是一些涨幅，收盘下跌 461.68 点，标普500只有包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）在内的七只股票成功收高。周四，道琼斯指数创下 3 月份以来的最大涨幅，但苹果下跌 0.6%，此前有报道称，该公司正在让供应商为不温不火的 iPhone 需求做好准备。</blockquote> On Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.<blockquote>周五，纳斯达克遭受重创，包括 Adobe (ADBE)、特斯拉 (TSLA) 和英伟达 (NVDA) 在内的大型昂贵成长型股票终于陷入抛售。“Canaccord Genuity 分析师马丁-罗伯格（Martin Roberge）指出：”鉴于许多'成长型'股票的估值过高，后者在本周的调整中首当其冲。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.<blockquote>标普500本周收盘时较 2021 年高点下跌 3.5%，略低于该指数 9 月份的跌幅，当时每个人都预测调整从未到来。这次抛售看起来有更多的腿。对估值和即将到来的财报季的普遍担忧已经一去不复返了，取而代之的是新的 Covid 变种和美联储紧缩周期的开始。</blockquote> Omicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.<blockquote>奥密克戎本身已经够糟糕的了--没有人知道它会对经济造成多大伤害--但随后美联储主席鲍威尔不得不承认，通胀毕竟不是暂时的，缩减通胀的速度可能要快于预期。</blockquote> “He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.<blockquote>“CIBC Private Wealth US 首席投资官戴夫-多纳贝迪安（Dave Donabedian）说：”他如此强烈地依赖这一信息，这告诉你一些战略变化即将到来。</blockquote> The timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.<blockquote>时间有点奇怪。有关在美国发现奥密克戎的头条新闻已经困扰着市场。鲍威尔让事情变得更糟。尽管如此，也许投资者应该问他为什么选择在那一天发表评论，而不是问他的声明本可以更有力。“MKM Partners 首席经济学家迈克尔-达尔达（Michael Darda）说：”想象一下，如果没有变体，演讲会是什么样子。</blockquote> The thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.<blockquote>问题是，鉴于美国经济的实力，鲍威尔采取鹰派立场完全正确。尽管头条新闻大错特错，就业报告依然稳健，失业率降至4.2%，参与率升至61.8%。供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）的非制造业调查达到创纪录的 69.1，而制造业指数也保持在 60 以上。</blockquote> The data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.<blockquote>这些数据非常好，以至于亚特兰大联储对美国第四季度经济增长的 GDPNow 估计最近达到了 9.7%。定于本周五公布的消费者价格指数预计11月份将上涨0.65%。所有这些都表明，经济已经为收紧货币政策做好了准备，即使股市还没有。“达尔达说：”鲍威尔是对的，即使市场有点恐慌。</blockquote> Don’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.<blockquote>如果情况再糟糕一点，也不要感到惊讶。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为美联储对股市的威胁比奥密克戎更大</blockquote> Stock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师表示，股票投资者可能有比新型冠状病毒株的出现更重要的事情需要担心。</blockquote> While they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.<blockquote>虽然他们 “并不那么担心奥密克戎是股市的主要风险因素”，但在美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）暗示可能加速缩减资产购买规模后，策略师们认为其他地方也出现了不利因素。“以迈克尔-威尔逊（Michael Wilson）为首的策略师在给客户的一份报告中写道：”缩减规模正在收紧市场，这将导致估值下降，就像在任何复苏的这个阶段一样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2480f1a0450a30811b2f0b6e1a23b008\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., who&nbsp;singled out a hawkish turn&nbsp;by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan&nbsp;reiterated on Monday&nbsp;that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&amp;P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.<blockquote>这些言论呼应了其他策略师的观点，其中包括摩根大通的策略师，他们指出央行的鹰派转向是其股市前景的主要风险。不过，尽管摩根大通周一重申，其基本情景是股市上涨将持续到明年，但摩根士丹利认为标普500呈走低趋势，估值下降。</blockquote> “Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&amp;P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”<blockquote>“摩根士丹利策略师写道：”由于多种原因，股市正在恢复九个多月前开始的降级进程。他们预测，标普500远期市盈率将下降约 12%，而且 “随着股票投资者在预期长期利率大幅上升的情况下开始要求更高的风险溢价”，跌幅可能会更深。</blockquote> UBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.<blockquote>瑞银全球财富管理策略师周一表示，他们 “预计未来一段时间的波动性将加剧，因为投资者试图根据不充分和参差不齐的数据评估奥密克戎和美联储的风险”。虽然他们建议投资者不要仓促退出风险资产，但以马克·海菲尔为首的策略师表示，货币紧缩可能会给他们的基本情景带来悲观的情况。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-12-06 13:46\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nNow can we have a correction?<blockquote>现在我们可以更正一下了吗？</blockquote> We’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&amp;P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.<blockquote>我们本希望能有更好的结果，比如在年底融化。但是，由于发现了 Covid-19 的奥密克戎变种，股市在黑色星期五暴跌后，上周股市被重创，但这似乎不太可能。标普500指数本周收盘下跌 1.2%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 319.26 点，跌幅 0.9%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.6%。小盘股罗素 2000 指数本周下跌 3.9%，周三收于回调区域。</blockquote> Those numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&amp;P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.<blockquote>这些数字未能反映本周的波动有多大。在周一小幅反弹后，道指周二暴跌652.22点。周三，它在早盘交易中反弹，然后回吐了这些涨幅，然后是一些涨幅，收盘下跌 461.68 点，标普500只有包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）在内的七只股票成功收高。周四，道琼斯指数创下 3 月份以来的最大涨幅，但苹果下跌 0.6%，此前有报道称，该公司正在让供应商为不温不火的 iPhone 需求做好准备。</blockquote> On Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.<blockquote>周五，纳斯达克遭受重创，包括 Adobe (ADBE)、特斯拉 (TSLA) 和英伟达 (NVDA) 在内的大型昂贵成长型股票终于陷入抛售。“Canaccord Genuity 分析师马丁-罗伯格（Martin Roberge）指出：”鉴于许多'成长型'股票的估值过高，后者在本周的调整中首当其冲。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.<blockquote>标普500本周收盘时较 2021 年高点下跌 3.5%，略低于该指数 9 月份的跌幅，当时每个人都预测调整从未到来。这次抛售看起来有更多的腿。对估值和即将到来的财报季的普遍担忧已经一去不复返了，取而代之的是新的 Covid 变种和美联储紧缩周期的开始。</blockquote> Omicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.<blockquote>奥密克戎本身已经够糟糕的了--没有人知道它会对经济造成多大伤害--但随后美联储主席鲍威尔不得不承认，通胀毕竟不是暂时的，缩减通胀的速度可能要快于预期。</blockquote> “He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.<blockquote>“CIBC Private Wealth US 首席投资官戴夫-多纳贝迪安（Dave Donabedian）说：”他如此强烈地依赖这一信息，这告诉你一些战略变化即将到来。</blockquote> The timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.<blockquote>时间有点奇怪。有关在美国发现奥密克戎的头条新闻已经困扰着市场。鲍威尔让事情变得更糟。尽管如此，也许投资者应该问他为什么选择在那一天发表评论，而不是问他的声明本可以更有力。“MKM Partners 首席经济学家迈克尔-达尔达（Michael Darda）说：”想象一下，如果没有变体，演讲会是什么样子。</blockquote> The thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.<blockquote>问题是，鉴于美国经济的实力，鲍威尔采取鹰派立场完全正确。尽管头条新闻大错特错，就业报告依然稳健，失业率降至4.2%，参与率升至61.8%。供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）的非制造业调查达到创纪录的 69.1，而制造业指数也保持在 60 以上。</blockquote> The data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.<blockquote>这些数据非常好，以至于亚特兰大联储对美国第四季度经济增长的 GDPNow 估计最近达到了 9.7%。定于本周五公布的消费者价格指数预计11月份将上涨0.65%。所有这些都表明，经济已经为收紧货币政策做好了准备，即使股市还没有。“达尔达说：”鲍威尔是对的，即使市场有点恐慌。</blockquote> Don’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.<blockquote>如果情况再糟糕一点，也不要感到惊讶。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为美联储对股市的威胁比奥密克戎更大</blockquote> Stock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师表示，股票投资者可能有比新型冠状病毒株的出现更重要的事情需要担心。</blockquote> While they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.<blockquote>虽然他们 “并不那么担心奥密克戎是股市的主要风险因素”，但在美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）暗示可能加速缩减资产购买规模后，策略师们认为其他地方也出现了不利因素。“以迈克尔-威尔逊（Michael Wilson）为首的策略师在给客户的一份报告中写道：”缩减规模正在收紧市场，这将导致估值下降，就像在任何复苏的这个阶段一样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2480f1a0450a30811b2f0b6e1a23b008\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., who&nbsp;singled out a hawkish turn&nbsp;by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan&nbsp;reiterated on Monday&nbsp;that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&amp;P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.<blockquote>这些言论呼应了其他策略师的观点，其中包括摩根大通的策略师，他们指出央行的鹰派转向是其股市前景的主要风险。不过，尽管摩根大通周一重申，其基本情景是股市上涨将持续到明年，但摩根士丹利认为标普500呈走低趋势，估值下降。</blockquote> “Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&amp;P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”<blockquote>“摩根士丹利策略师写道：”由于多种原因，股市正在恢复九个多月前开始的降级进程。他们预测，标普500远期市盈率将下降约 12%，而且 “随着股票投资者在预期长期利率大幅上升的情况下开始要求更高的风险溢价”，跌幅可能会更深。</blockquote> UBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.<blockquote>瑞银全球财富管理策略师周一表示，他们 “预计未来一段时间的波动性将加剧，因为投资者试图根据不充分和参差不齐的数据评估奥密克戎和美联储的风险”。虽然他们建议投资者不要仓促退出风险资产，但以马克·海菲尔为首的策略师表示，货币紧缩可能会给他们的基本情景带来悲观的情况。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-covid-omicron-federal-reserve-51638575944\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-covid-omicron-federal-reserve-51638575944","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138852642","content_text":"Now can we have a correction?\nWe’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.\nThose numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.\nOn Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.\nThe S&P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.\nOmicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.\n“He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.\nThe timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.\nThe thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.\nThe data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.\nDon’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.\nMorgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron\nStock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.\nWhile they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.\n\nThe comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase & Co., who singled out a hawkish turn by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan reiterated on Monday that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.\n“Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”\nUBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":606020542,"gmtCreate":1638802128019,"gmtModify":1638802128152,"author":{"id":"3577853640817618","authorId":"3577853640817618","name":"xuannie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/094bb4526c85c5b6ade1fef7274ae82b","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3577853640817618","idStr":"3577853640817618"},"htmlText":"Just give us a concrete direction already.. stop beating around the bush&nbsp;","listText":"Just give us a concrete direction already.. stop beating around the bush&nbsp;","text":"Just give us a concrete direction already.. stop beating around the bush","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606020542","repostId":1138852642,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1138852642","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638769615,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1138852642?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-06 13:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138852642","media":"Barrons","summary":"Now can we have a correction?\nWe’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the ye","content":"Now can we have a correction?<blockquote>现在我们可以更正一下了吗？</blockquote> We’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&amp;P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.<blockquote>我们本希望能有更好的结果，比如在年底融化。但是，由于发现了 Covid-19 的奥密克戎变种，股市在黑色星期五暴跌后，上周股市被重创，但这似乎不太可能。标普500指数本周收盘下跌 1.2%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 319.26 点，跌幅 0.9%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.6%。小盘股罗素 2000 指数本周下跌 3.9%，周三收于回调区域。</blockquote> Those numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&amp;P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.<blockquote>这些数字未能反映本周的波动有多大。在周一小幅反弹后，道指周二暴跌652.22点。周三，它在早盘交易中反弹，然后回吐了这些涨幅，然后是一些涨幅，收盘下跌 461.68 点，标普500只有包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）在内的七只股票成功收高。周四，道琼斯指数创下 3 月份以来的最大涨幅，但苹果下跌 0.6%，此前有报道称，该公司正在让供应商为不温不火的 iPhone 需求做好准备。</blockquote> On Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.<blockquote>周五，纳斯达克遭受重创，包括 Adobe (ADBE)、特斯拉 (TSLA) 和英伟达 (NVDA) 在内的大型昂贵成长型股票终于陷入抛售。“Canaccord Genuity 分析师马丁-罗伯格（Martin Roberge）指出：”鉴于许多'成长型'股票的估值过高，后者在本周的调整中首当其冲。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.<blockquote>标普500本周收盘时较 2021 年高点下跌 3.5%，略低于该指数 9 月份的跌幅，当时每个人都预测调整从未到来。这次抛售看起来有更多的腿。对估值和即将到来的财报季的普遍担忧已经一去不复返了，取而代之的是新的 Covid 变种和美联储紧缩周期的开始。</blockquote> Omicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.<blockquote>奥密克戎本身已经够糟糕的了--没有人知道它会对经济造成多大伤害--但随后美联储主席鲍威尔不得不承认，通胀毕竟不是暂时的，缩减通胀的速度可能要快于预期。</blockquote> “He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.<blockquote>“CIBC Private Wealth US 首席投资官戴夫-多纳贝迪安（Dave Donabedian）说：”他如此强烈地依赖这一信息，这告诉你一些战略变化即将到来。</blockquote> The timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.<blockquote>时间有点奇怪。有关在美国发现奥密克戎的头条新闻已经困扰着市场。鲍威尔让事情变得更糟。尽管如此，也许投资者应该问他为什么选择在那一天发表评论，而不是问他的声明本可以更有力。“MKM Partners 首席经济学家迈克尔-达尔达（Michael Darda）说：”想象一下，如果没有变体，演讲会是什么样子。</blockquote> The thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.<blockquote>问题是，鉴于美国经济的实力，鲍威尔采取鹰派立场完全正确。尽管头条新闻大错特错，就业报告依然稳健，失业率降至4.2%，参与率升至61.8%。供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）的非制造业调查达到创纪录的 69.1，而制造业指数也保持在 60 以上。</blockquote> The data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.<blockquote>这些数据非常好，以至于亚特兰大联储对美国第四季度经济增长的 GDPNow 估计最近达到了 9.7%。定于本周五公布的消费者价格指数预计11月份将上涨0.65%。所有这些都表明，经济已经为收紧货币政策做好了准备，即使股市还没有。“达尔达说：”鲍威尔是对的，即使市场有点恐慌。</blockquote> Don’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.<blockquote>如果情况再糟糕一点，也不要感到惊讶。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为美联储对股市的威胁比奥密克戎更大</blockquote> Stock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师表示，股票投资者可能有比新型冠状病毒株的出现更重要的事情需要担心。</blockquote> While they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.<blockquote>虽然他们 “并不那么担心奥密克戎是股市的主要风险因素”，但在美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）暗示可能加速缩减资产购买规模后，策略师们认为其他地方也出现了不利因素。“以迈克尔-威尔逊（Michael Wilson）为首的策略师在给客户的一份报告中写道：”缩减规模正在收紧市场，这将导致估值下降，就像在任何复苏的这个阶段一样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2480f1a0450a30811b2f0b6e1a23b008\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., who&nbsp;singled out a hawkish turn&nbsp;by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan&nbsp;reiterated on Monday&nbsp;that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&amp;P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.<blockquote>这些言论呼应了其他策略师的观点，其中包括摩根大通的策略师，他们指出央行的鹰派转向是其股市前景的主要风险。不过，尽管摩根大通周一重申，其基本情景是股市上涨将持续到明年，但摩根士丹利认为标普500呈走低趋势，估值下降。</blockquote> “Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&amp;P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”<blockquote>“摩根士丹利策略师写道：”由于多种原因，股市正在恢复九个多月前开始的降级进程。他们预测，标普500远期市盈率将下降约 12%，而且 “随着股票投资者在预期长期利率大幅上升的情况下开始要求更高的风险溢价”，跌幅可能会更深。</blockquote> UBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.<blockquote>瑞银全球财富管理策略师周一表示，他们 “预计未来一段时间的波动性将加剧，因为投资者试图根据不充分和参差不齐的数据评估奥密克戎和美联储的风险”。虽然他们建议投资者不要仓促退出风险资产，但以马克·海菲尔为首的策略师表示，货币紧缩可能会给他们的基本情景带来悲观的情况。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-12-06 13:46\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nNow can we have a correction?<blockquote>现在我们可以更正一下了吗？</blockquote> We’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&amp;P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.<blockquote>我们本希望能有更好的结果，比如在年底融化。但是，由于发现了 Covid-19 的奥密克戎变种，股市在黑色星期五暴跌后，上周股市被重创，但这似乎不太可能。标普500指数本周收盘下跌 1.2%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 319.26 点，跌幅 0.9%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.6%。小盘股罗素 2000 指数本周下跌 3.9%，周三收于回调区域。</blockquote> Those numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&amp;P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.<blockquote>这些数字未能反映本周的波动有多大。在周一小幅反弹后，道指周二暴跌652.22点。周三，它在早盘交易中反弹，然后回吐了这些涨幅，然后是一些涨幅，收盘下跌 461.68 点，标普500只有包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）在内的七只股票成功收高。周四，道琼斯指数创下 3 月份以来的最大涨幅，但苹果下跌 0.6%，此前有报道称，该公司正在让供应商为不温不火的 iPhone 需求做好准备。</blockquote> On Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.<blockquote>周五，纳斯达克遭受重创，包括 Adobe (ADBE)、特斯拉 (TSLA) 和英伟达 (NVDA) 在内的大型昂贵成长型股票终于陷入抛售。“Canaccord Genuity 分析师马丁-罗伯格（Martin Roberge）指出：”鉴于许多'成长型'股票的估值过高，后者在本周的调整中首当其冲。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.<blockquote>标普500本周收盘时较 2021 年高点下跌 3.5%，略低于该指数 9 月份的跌幅，当时每个人都预测调整从未到来。这次抛售看起来有更多的腿。对估值和即将到来的财报季的普遍担忧已经一去不复返了，取而代之的是新的 Covid 变种和美联储紧缩周期的开始。</blockquote> Omicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.<blockquote>奥密克戎本身已经够糟糕的了--没有人知道它会对经济造成多大伤害--但随后美联储主席鲍威尔不得不承认，通胀毕竟不是暂时的，缩减通胀的速度可能要快于预期。</blockquote> “He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.<blockquote>“CIBC Private Wealth US 首席投资官戴夫-多纳贝迪安（Dave Donabedian）说：”他如此强烈地依赖这一信息，这告诉你一些战略变化即将到来。</blockquote> The timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.<blockquote>时间有点奇怪。有关在美国发现奥密克戎的头条新闻已经困扰着市场。鲍威尔让事情变得更糟。尽管如此，也许投资者应该问他为什么选择在那一天发表评论，而不是问他的声明本可以更有力。“MKM Partners 首席经济学家迈克尔-达尔达（Michael Darda）说：”想象一下，如果没有变体，演讲会是什么样子。</blockquote> The thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.<blockquote>问题是，鉴于美国经济的实力，鲍威尔采取鹰派立场完全正确。尽管头条新闻大错特错，就业报告依然稳健，失业率降至4.2%，参与率升至61.8%。供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）的非制造业调查达到创纪录的 69.1，而制造业指数也保持在 60 以上。</blockquote> The data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.<blockquote>这些数据非常好，以至于亚特兰大联储对美国第四季度经济增长的 GDPNow 估计最近达到了 9.7%。定于本周五公布的消费者价格指数预计11月份将上涨0.65%。所有这些都表明，经济已经为收紧货币政策做好了准备，即使股市还没有。“达尔达说：”鲍威尔是对的，即使市场有点恐慌。</blockquote> Don’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.<blockquote>如果情况再糟糕一点，也不要感到惊讶。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为美联储对股市的威胁比奥密克戎更大</blockquote> Stock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师表示，股票投资者可能有比新型冠状病毒株的出现更重要的事情需要担心。</blockquote> While they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.<blockquote>虽然他们 “并不那么担心奥密克戎是股市的主要风险因素”，但在美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）暗示可能加速缩减资产购买规模后，策略师们认为其他地方也出现了不利因素。“以迈克尔-威尔逊（Michael Wilson）为首的策略师在给客户的一份报告中写道：”缩减规模正在收紧市场，这将导致估值下降，就像在任何复苏的这个阶段一样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2480f1a0450a30811b2f0b6e1a23b008\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., who&nbsp;singled out a hawkish turn&nbsp;by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan&nbsp;reiterated on Monday&nbsp;that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&amp;P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.<blockquote>这些言论呼应了其他策略师的观点，其中包括摩根大通的策略师，他们指出央行的鹰派转向是其股市前景的主要风险。不过，尽管摩根大通周一重申，其基本情景是股市上涨将持续到明年，但摩根士丹利认为标普500呈走低趋势，估值下降。</blockquote> “Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&amp;P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”<blockquote>“摩根士丹利策略师写道：”由于多种原因，股市正在恢复九个多月前开始的降级进程。他们预测，标普500远期市盈率将下降约 12%，而且 “随着股票投资者在预期长期利率大幅上升的情况下开始要求更高的风险溢价”，跌幅可能会更深。</blockquote> UBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.<blockquote>瑞银全球财富管理策略师周一表示，他们 “预计未来一段时间的波动性将加剧，因为投资者试图根据不充分和参差不齐的数据评估奥密克戎和美联储的风险”。虽然他们建议投资者不要仓促退出风险资产，但以马克·海菲尔为首的策略师表示，货币紧缩可能会给他们的基本情景带来悲观的情况。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-covid-omicron-federal-reserve-51638575944\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-covid-omicron-federal-reserve-51638575944","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138852642","content_text":"Now can we have a correction?\nWe’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.\nThose numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.\nOn Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.\nThe S&P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.\nOmicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.\n“He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.\nThe timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.\nThe thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.\nThe data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.\nDon’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.\nMorgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron\nStock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.\nWhile they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.\n\nThe comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase & Co., who singled out a hawkish turn by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan reiterated on Monday that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.\n“Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”\nUBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6872300,"gmtCreate":1638803912257,"gmtModify":1638803912355,"authorId":3577853640817618,"author":{"id":3577853640817618,"idStr":"3577853640817618","authorId":3577853640817618,"name":"xuannie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/094bb4526c85c5b6ade1fef7274ae82b","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":606020542,"type":1,"supId":6872086,"prevId":0,"content":"I like the quote \"those who survive today will live to die another day\" Hahaha","text":"I like the quote \"those who survive today will live to die another day\" Hahaha","html":"I like the quote \"those who survive today will live to die another day\" Hahaha"},{"id":6872086,"gmtCreate":1638803041992,"gmtModify":1638803042081,"authorId":4100044822962420,"author":{"id":4100044822962420,"idStr":"4100044822962420","authorId":4100044822962420,"name":"terrylimkc","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":606020542,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"thats the whole idea of the game, stir it up and down....those who can survive will live to die another day","text":"thats the whole idea of the game, stir it up and down....those who can survive will live to die another day","html":"thats the whole idea of the game, stir it up and down....those who can survive will live to die another day"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":606061242,"gmtCreate":1638801861856,"gmtModify":1638801862401,"author":{"id":"3581724772671504","authorId":"3581724772671504","name":"Uasbau","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67cdf409f2239595269918513a5faac9","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3581724772671504","idStr":"3581724772671504"},"htmlText":"Infos","listText":"Infos","text":"Infos","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606061242","repostId":1138852642,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138852642","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638769615,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1138852642?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-06 13:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138852642","media":"Barrons","summary":"Now can we have a correction?\nWe’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the ye","content":"Now can we have a correction?<blockquote>现在我们可以更正一下了吗？</blockquote> We’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&amp;P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.<blockquote>我们本希望能有更好的结果，比如在年底融化。但是，由于发现了 Covid-19 的奥密克戎变种，股市在黑色星期五暴跌后，上周股市被重创，但这似乎不太可能。标普500指数本周收盘下跌 1.2%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 319.26 点，跌幅 0.9%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.6%。小盘股罗素 2000 指数本周下跌 3.9%，周三收于回调区域。</blockquote> Those numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&amp;P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.<blockquote>这些数字未能反映本周的波动有多大。在周一小幅反弹后，道指周二暴跌652.22点。周三，它在早盘交易中反弹，然后回吐了这些涨幅，然后是一些涨幅，收盘下跌 461.68 点，标普500只有包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）在内的七只股票成功收高。周四，道琼斯指数创下 3 月份以来的最大涨幅，但苹果下跌 0.6%，此前有报道称，该公司正在让供应商为不温不火的 iPhone 需求做好准备。</blockquote> On Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.<blockquote>周五，纳斯达克遭受重创，包括 Adobe (ADBE)、特斯拉 (TSLA) 和英伟达 (NVDA) 在内的大型昂贵成长型股票终于陷入抛售。“Canaccord Genuity 分析师马丁-罗伯格（Martin Roberge）指出：”鉴于许多'成长型'股票的估值过高，后者在本周的调整中首当其冲。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.<blockquote>标普500本周收盘时较 2021 年高点下跌 3.5%，略低于该指数 9 月份的跌幅，当时每个人都预测调整从未到来。这次抛售看起来有更多的腿。对估值和即将到来的财报季的普遍担忧已经一去不复返了，取而代之的是新的 Covid 变种和美联储紧缩周期的开始。</blockquote> Omicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.<blockquote>奥密克戎本身已经够糟糕的了--没有人知道它会对经济造成多大伤害--但随后美联储主席鲍威尔不得不承认，通胀毕竟不是暂时的，缩减通胀的速度可能要快于预期。</blockquote> “He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.<blockquote>“CIBC Private Wealth US 首席投资官戴夫-多纳贝迪安（Dave Donabedian）说：”他如此强烈地依赖这一信息，这告诉你一些战略变化即将到来。</blockquote> The timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.<blockquote>时间有点奇怪。有关在美国发现奥密克戎的头条新闻已经困扰着市场。鲍威尔让事情变得更糟。尽管如此，也许投资者应该问他为什么选择在那一天发表评论，而不是问他的声明本可以更有力。“MKM Partners 首席经济学家迈克尔-达尔达（Michael Darda）说：”想象一下，如果没有变体，演讲会是什么样子。</blockquote> The thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.<blockquote>问题是，鉴于美国经济的实力，鲍威尔采取鹰派立场完全正确。尽管头条新闻大错特错，就业报告依然稳健，失业率降至4.2%，参与率升至61.8%。供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）的非制造业调查达到创纪录的 69.1，而制造业指数也保持在 60 以上。</blockquote> The data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.<blockquote>这些数据非常好，以至于亚特兰大联储对美国第四季度经济增长的 GDPNow 估计最近达到了 9.7%。定于本周五公布的消费者价格指数预计11月份将上涨0.65%。所有这些都表明，经济已经为收紧货币政策做好了准备，即使股市还没有。“达尔达说：”鲍威尔是对的，即使市场有点恐慌。</blockquote> Don’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.<blockquote>如果情况再糟糕一点，也不要感到惊讶。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为美联储对股市的威胁比奥密克戎更大</blockquote> Stock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师表示，股票投资者可能有比新型冠状病毒株的出现更重要的事情需要担心。</blockquote> While they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.<blockquote>虽然他们 “并不那么担心奥密克戎是股市的主要风险因素”，但在美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）暗示可能加速缩减资产购买规模后，策略师们认为其他地方也出现了不利因素。“以迈克尔-威尔逊（Michael Wilson）为首的策略师在给客户的一份报告中写道：”缩减规模正在收紧市场，这将导致估值下降，就像在任何复苏的这个阶段一样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2480f1a0450a30811b2f0b6e1a23b008\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., who&nbsp;singled out a hawkish turn&nbsp;by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan&nbsp;reiterated on Monday&nbsp;that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&amp;P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.<blockquote>这些言论呼应了其他策略师的观点，其中包括摩根大通的策略师，他们指出央行的鹰派转向是其股市前景的主要风险。不过，尽管摩根大通周一重申，其基本情景是股市上涨将持续到明年，但摩根士丹利认为标普500呈走低趋势，估值下降。</blockquote> “Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&amp;P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”<blockquote>“摩根士丹利策略师写道：”由于多种原因，股市正在恢复九个多月前开始的降级进程。他们预测，标普500远期市盈率将下降约 12%，而且 “随着股票投资者在预期长期利率大幅上升的情况下开始要求更高的风险溢价”，跌幅可能会更深。</blockquote> UBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.<blockquote>瑞银全球财富管理策略师周一表示，他们 “预计未来一段时间的波动性将加剧，因为投资者试图根据不充分和参差不齐的数据评估奥密克戎和美联储的风险”。虽然他们建议投资者不要仓促退出风险资产，但以马克·海菲尔为首的策略师表示，货币紧缩可能会给他们的基本情景带来悲观的情况。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-12-06 13:46\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nNow can we have a correction?<blockquote>现在我们可以更正一下了吗？</blockquote> We’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&amp;P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.<blockquote>我们本希望能有更好的结果，比如在年底融化。但是，由于发现了 Covid-19 的奥密克戎变种，股市在黑色星期五暴跌后，上周股市被重创，但这似乎不太可能。标普500指数本周收盘下跌 1.2%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 319.26 点，跌幅 0.9%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.6%。小盘股罗素 2000 指数本周下跌 3.9%，周三收于回调区域。</blockquote> Those numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&amp;P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.<blockquote>这些数字未能反映本周的波动有多大。在周一小幅反弹后，道指周二暴跌652.22点。周三，它在早盘交易中反弹，然后回吐了这些涨幅，然后是一些涨幅，收盘下跌 461.68 点，标普500只有包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）在内的七只股票成功收高。周四，道琼斯指数创下 3 月份以来的最大涨幅，但苹果下跌 0.6%，此前有报道称，该公司正在让供应商为不温不火的 iPhone 需求做好准备。</blockquote> On Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.<blockquote>周五，纳斯达克遭受重创，包括 Adobe (ADBE)、特斯拉 (TSLA) 和英伟达 (NVDA) 在内的大型昂贵成长型股票终于陷入抛售。“Canaccord Genuity 分析师马丁-罗伯格（Martin Roberge）指出：”鉴于许多'成长型'股票的估值过高，后者在本周的调整中首当其冲。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.<blockquote>标普500本周收盘时较 2021 年高点下跌 3.5%，略低于该指数 9 月份的跌幅，当时每个人都预测调整从未到来。这次抛售看起来有更多的腿。对估值和即将到来的财报季的普遍担忧已经一去不复返了，取而代之的是新的 Covid 变种和美联储紧缩周期的开始。</blockquote> Omicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.<blockquote>奥密克戎本身已经够糟糕的了--没有人知道它会对经济造成多大伤害--但随后美联储主席鲍威尔不得不承认，通胀毕竟不是暂时的，缩减通胀的速度可能要快于预期。</blockquote> “He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.<blockquote>“CIBC Private Wealth US 首席投资官戴夫-多纳贝迪安（Dave Donabedian）说：”他如此强烈地依赖这一信息，这告诉你一些战略变化即将到来。</blockquote> The timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.<blockquote>时间有点奇怪。有关在美国发现奥密克戎的头条新闻已经困扰着市场。鲍威尔让事情变得更糟。尽管如此，也许投资者应该问他为什么选择在那一天发表评论，而不是问他的声明本可以更有力。“MKM Partners 首席经济学家迈克尔-达尔达（Michael Darda）说：”想象一下，如果没有变体，演讲会是什么样子。</blockquote> The thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.<blockquote>问题是，鉴于美国经济的实力，鲍威尔采取鹰派立场完全正确。尽管头条新闻大错特错，就业报告依然稳健，失业率降至4.2%，参与率升至61.8%。供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）的非制造业调查达到创纪录的 69.1，而制造业指数也保持在 60 以上。</blockquote> The data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.<blockquote>这些数据非常好，以至于亚特兰大联储对美国第四季度经济增长的 GDPNow 估计最近达到了 9.7%。定于本周五公布的消费者价格指数预计11月份将上涨0.65%。所有这些都表明，经济已经为收紧货币政策做好了准备，即使股市还没有。“达尔达说：”鲍威尔是对的，即使市场有点恐慌。</blockquote> Don’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.<blockquote>如果情况再糟糕一点，也不要感到惊讶。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为美联储对股市的威胁比奥密克戎更大</blockquote> Stock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师表示，股票投资者可能有比新型冠状病毒株的出现更重要的事情需要担心。</blockquote> While they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.<blockquote>虽然他们 “并不那么担心奥密克戎是股市的主要风险因素”，但在美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）暗示可能加速缩减资产购买规模后，策略师们认为其他地方也出现了不利因素。“以迈克尔-威尔逊（Michael Wilson）为首的策略师在给客户的一份报告中写道：”缩减规模正在收紧市场，这将导致估值下降，就像在任何复苏的这个阶段一样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2480f1a0450a30811b2f0b6e1a23b008\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., who&nbsp;singled out a hawkish turn&nbsp;by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan&nbsp;reiterated on Monday&nbsp;that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&amp;P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.<blockquote>这些言论呼应了其他策略师的观点，其中包括摩根大通的策略师，他们指出央行的鹰派转向是其股市前景的主要风险。不过，尽管摩根大通周一重申，其基本情景是股市上涨将持续到明年，但摩根士丹利认为标普500呈走低趋势，估值下降。</blockquote> “Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&amp;P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”<blockquote>“摩根士丹利策略师写道：”由于多种原因，股市正在恢复九个多月前开始的降级进程。他们预测，标普500远期市盈率将下降约 12%，而且 “随着股票投资者在预期长期利率大幅上升的情况下开始要求更高的风险溢价”，跌幅可能会更深。</blockquote> UBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.<blockquote>瑞银全球财富管理策略师周一表示，他们 “预计未来一段时间的波动性将加剧，因为投资者试图根据不充分和参差不齐的数据评估奥密克戎和美联储的风险”。虽然他们建议投资者不要仓促退出风险资产，但以马克·海菲尔为首的策略师表示，货币紧缩可能会给他们的基本情景带来悲观的情况。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-covid-omicron-federal-reserve-51638575944\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-covid-omicron-federal-reserve-51638575944","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138852642","content_text":"Now can we have a correction?\nWe’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.\nThose numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.\nOn Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.\nThe S&P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.\nOmicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.\n“He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.\nThe timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.\nThe thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.\nThe data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.\nDon’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.\nMorgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron\nStock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.\nWhile they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.\n\nThe comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase & Co., who singled out a hawkish turn by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan reiterated on Monday that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.\n“Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”\nUBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":606087458,"gmtCreate":1638801729052,"gmtModify":1638801733245,"author":{"id":"3567221235003553","authorId":"3567221235003553","name":"JFK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8cdaf8b81ae245f2f2ea5ff303a6722","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3567221235003553","idStr":"3567221235003553"},"htmlText":"Ok like","listText":"Ok like","text":"Ok like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606087458","repostId":1138852642,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138852642","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638769615,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1138852642?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-06 13:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138852642","media":"Barrons","summary":"Now can we have a correction?\nWe’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the ye","content":"Now can we have a correction?<blockquote>现在我们可以更正一下了吗？</blockquote> We’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&amp;P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.<blockquote>我们本希望能有更好的结果，比如在年底融化。但是，由于发现了 Covid-19 的奥密克戎变种，股市在黑色星期五暴跌后，上周股市被重创，但这似乎不太可能。标普500指数本周收盘下跌 1.2%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 319.26 点，跌幅 0.9%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.6%。小盘股罗素 2000 指数本周下跌 3.9%，周三收于回调区域。</blockquote> Those numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&amp;P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.<blockquote>这些数字未能反映本周的波动有多大。在周一小幅反弹后，道指周二暴跌652.22点。周三，它在早盘交易中反弹，然后回吐了这些涨幅，然后是一些涨幅，收盘下跌 461.68 点，标普500只有包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）在内的七只股票成功收高。周四，道琼斯指数创下 3 月份以来的最大涨幅，但苹果下跌 0.6%，此前有报道称，该公司正在让供应商为不温不火的 iPhone 需求做好准备。</blockquote> On Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.<blockquote>周五，纳斯达克遭受重创，包括 Adobe (ADBE)、特斯拉 (TSLA) 和英伟达 (NVDA) 在内的大型昂贵成长型股票终于陷入抛售。“Canaccord Genuity 分析师马丁-罗伯格（Martin Roberge）指出：”鉴于许多'成长型'股票的估值过高，后者在本周的调整中首当其冲。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.<blockquote>标普500本周收盘时较 2021 年高点下跌 3.5%，略低于该指数 9 月份的跌幅，当时每个人都预测调整从未到来。这次抛售看起来有更多的腿。对估值和即将到来的财报季的普遍担忧已经一去不复返了，取而代之的是新的 Covid 变种和美联储紧缩周期的开始。</blockquote> Omicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.<blockquote>奥密克戎本身已经够糟糕的了--没有人知道它会对经济造成多大伤害--但随后美联储主席鲍威尔不得不承认，通胀毕竟不是暂时的，缩减通胀的速度可能要快于预期。</blockquote> “He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.<blockquote>“CIBC Private Wealth US 首席投资官戴夫-多纳贝迪安（Dave Donabedian）说：”他如此强烈地依赖这一信息，这告诉你一些战略变化即将到来。</blockquote> The timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.<blockquote>时间有点奇怪。有关在美国发现奥密克戎的头条新闻已经困扰着市场。鲍威尔让事情变得更糟。尽管如此，也许投资者应该问他为什么选择在那一天发表评论，而不是问他的声明本可以更有力。“MKM Partners 首席经济学家迈克尔-达尔达（Michael Darda）说：”想象一下，如果没有变体，演讲会是什么样子。</blockquote> The thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.<blockquote>问题是，鉴于美国经济的实力，鲍威尔采取鹰派立场完全正确。尽管头条新闻大错特错，就业报告依然稳健，失业率降至4.2%，参与率升至61.8%。供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）的非制造业调查达到创纪录的 69.1，而制造业指数也保持在 60 以上。</blockquote> The data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.<blockquote>这些数据非常好，以至于亚特兰大联储对美国第四季度经济增长的 GDPNow 估计最近达到了 9.7%。定于本周五公布的消费者价格指数预计11月份将上涨0.65%。所有这些都表明，经济已经为收紧货币政策做好了准备，即使股市还没有。“达尔达说：”鲍威尔是对的，即使市场有点恐慌。</blockquote> Don’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.<blockquote>如果情况再糟糕一点，也不要感到惊讶。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为美联储对股市的威胁比奥密克戎更大</blockquote> Stock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师表示，股票投资者可能有比新型冠状病毒株的出现更重要的事情需要担心。</blockquote> While they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.<blockquote>虽然他们 “并不那么担心奥密克戎是股市的主要风险因素”，但在美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）暗示可能加速缩减资产购买规模后，策略师们认为其他地方也出现了不利因素。“以迈克尔-威尔逊（Michael Wilson）为首的策略师在给客户的一份报告中写道：”缩减规模正在收紧市场，这将导致估值下降，就像在任何复苏的这个阶段一样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2480f1a0450a30811b2f0b6e1a23b008\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., who&nbsp;singled out a hawkish turn&nbsp;by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan&nbsp;reiterated on Monday&nbsp;that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&amp;P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.<blockquote>这些言论呼应了其他策略师的观点，其中包括摩根大通的策略师，他们指出央行的鹰派转向是其股市前景的主要风险。不过，尽管摩根大通周一重申，其基本情景是股市上涨将持续到明年，但摩根士丹利认为标普500呈走低趋势，估值下降。</blockquote> “Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&amp;P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”<blockquote>“摩根士丹利策略师写道：”由于多种原因，股市正在恢复九个多月前开始的降级进程。他们预测，标普500远期市盈率将下降约 12%，而且 “随着股票投资者在预期长期利率大幅上升的情况下开始要求更高的风险溢价”，跌幅可能会更深。</blockquote> UBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.<blockquote>瑞银全球财富管理策略师周一表示，他们 “预计未来一段时间的波动性将加剧，因为投资者试图根据不充分和参差不齐的数据评估奥密克戎和美联储的风险”。虽然他们建议投资者不要仓促退出风险资产，但以马克·海菲尔为首的策略师表示，货币紧缩可能会给他们的基本情景带来悲观的情况。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-12-06 13:46\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nNow can we have a correction?<blockquote>现在我们可以更正一下了吗？</blockquote> We’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&amp;P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.<blockquote>我们本希望能有更好的结果，比如在年底融化。但是，由于发现了 Covid-19 的奥密克戎变种，股市在黑色星期五暴跌后，上周股市被重创，但这似乎不太可能。标普500指数本周收盘下跌 1.2%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 319.26 点，跌幅 0.9%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.6%。小盘股罗素 2000 指数本周下跌 3.9%，周三收于回调区域。</blockquote> Those numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&amp;P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.<blockquote>这些数字未能反映本周的波动有多大。在周一小幅反弹后，道指周二暴跌652.22点。周三，它在早盘交易中反弹，然后回吐了这些涨幅，然后是一些涨幅，收盘下跌 461.68 点，标普500只有包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）在内的七只股票成功收高。周四，道琼斯指数创下 3 月份以来的最大涨幅，但苹果下跌 0.6%，此前有报道称，该公司正在让供应商为不温不火的 iPhone 需求做好准备。</blockquote> On Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.<blockquote>周五，纳斯达克遭受重创，包括 Adobe (ADBE)、特斯拉 (TSLA) 和英伟达 (NVDA) 在内的大型昂贵成长型股票终于陷入抛售。“Canaccord Genuity 分析师马丁-罗伯格（Martin Roberge）指出：”鉴于许多'成长型'股票的估值过高，后者在本周的调整中首当其冲。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.<blockquote>标普500本周收盘时较 2021 年高点下跌 3.5%，略低于该指数 9 月份的跌幅，当时每个人都预测调整从未到来。这次抛售看起来有更多的腿。对估值和即将到来的财报季的普遍担忧已经一去不复返了，取而代之的是新的 Covid 变种和美联储紧缩周期的开始。</blockquote> Omicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.<blockquote>奥密克戎本身已经够糟糕的了--没有人知道它会对经济造成多大伤害--但随后美联储主席鲍威尔不得不承认，通胀毕竟不是暂时的，缩减通胀的速度可能要快于预期。</blockquote> “He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.<blockquote>“CIBC Private Wealth US 首席投资官戴夫-多纳贝迪安（Dave Donabedian）说：”他如此强烈地依赖这一信息，这告诉你一些战略变化即将到来。</blockquote> The timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.<blockquote>时间有点奇怪。有关在美国发现奥密克戎的头条新闻已经困扰着市场。鲍威尔让事情变得更糟。尽管如此，也许投资者应该问他为什么选择在那一天发表评论，而不是问他的声明本可以更有力。“MKM Partners 首席经济学家迈克尔-达尔达（Michael Darda）说：”想象一下，如果没有变体，演讲会是什么样子。</blockquote> The thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.<blockquote>问题是，鉴于美国经济的实力，鲍威尔采取鹰派立场完全正确。尽管头条新闻大错特错，就业报告依然稳健，失业率降至4.2%，参与率升至61.8%。供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）的非制造业调查达到创纪录的 69.1，而制造业指数也保持在 60 以上。</blockquote> The data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.<blockquote>这些数据非常好，以至于亚特兰大联储对美国第四季度经济增长的 GDPNow 估计最近达到了 9.7%。定于本周五公布的消费者价格指数预计11月份将上涨0.65%。所有这些都表明，经济已经为收紧货币政策做好了准备，即使股市还没有。“达尔达说：”鲍威尔是对的，即使市场有点恐慌。</blockquote> Don’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.<blockquote>如果情况再糟糕一点，也不要感到惊讶。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为美联储对股市的威胁比奥密克戎更大</blockquote> Stock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师表示，股票投资者可能有比新型冠状病毒株的出现更重要的事情需要担心。</blockquote> While they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.<blockquote>虽然他们 “并不那么担心奥密克戎是股市的主要风险因素”，但在美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）暗示可能加速缩减资产购买规模后，策略师们认为其他地方也出现了不利因素。“以迈克尔-威尔逊（Michael Wilson）为首的策略师在给客户的一份报告中写道：”缩减规模正在收紧市场，这将导致估值下降，就像在任何复苏的这个阶段一样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2480f1a0450a30811b2f0b6e1a23b008\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., who&nbsp;singled out a hawkish turn&nbsp;by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan&nbsp;reiterated on Monday&nbsp;that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&amp;P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.<blockquote>这些言论呼应了其他策略师的观点，其中包括摩根大通的策略师，他们指出央行的鹰派转向是其股市前景的主要风险。不过，尽管摩根大通周一重申，其基本情景是股市上涨将持续到明年，但摩根士丹利认为标普500呈走低趋势，估值下降。</blockquote> “Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&amp;P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”<blockquote>“摩根士丹利策略师写道：”由于多种原因，股市正在恢复九个多月前开始的降级进程。他们预测，标普500远期市盈率将下降约 12%，而且 “随着股票投资者在预期长期利率大幅上升的情况下开始要求更高的风险溢价”，跌幅可能会更深。</blockquote> UBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.<blockquote>瑞银全球财富管理策略师周一表示，他们 “预计未来一段时间的波动性将加剧，因为投资者试图根据不充分和参差不齐的数据评估奥密克戎和美联储的风险”。虽然他们建议投资者不要仓促退出风险资产，但以马克·海菲尔为首的策略师表示，货币紧缩可能会给他们的基本情景带来悲观的情况。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-covid-omicron-federal-reserve-51638575944\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-covid-omicron-federal-reserve-51638575944","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138852642","content_text":"Now can we have a correction?\nWe’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.\nThose numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.\nOn Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.\nThe S&P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.\nOmicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.\n“He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.\nThe timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.\nThe thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.\nThe data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.\nDon’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.\nMorgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron\nStock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.\nWhile they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.\n\nThe comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase & Co., who singled out a hawkish turn by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan reiterated on Monday that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.\n“Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”\nUBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":606018156,"gmtCreate":1638801026073,"gmtModify":1638801026503,"author":{"id":"3579773534390380","authorId":"3579773534390380","name":"MinkyHuat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97b1cf6156deff63311641652347a340","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3579773534390380","idStr":"3579773534390380"},"htmlText":"Sigh&nbsp;","listText":"Sigh&nbsp;","text":"Sigh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606018156","repostId":1138852642,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1138852642","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638769615,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1138852642?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-06 13:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138852642","media":"Barrons","summary":"Now can we have a correction?\nWe’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the ye","content":"Now can we have a correction?<blockquote>现在我们可以更正一下了吗？</blockquote> We’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&amp;P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.<blockquote>我们本希望能有更好的结果，比如在年底融化。但是，由于发现了 Covid-19 的奥密克戎变种，股市在黑色星期五暴跌后，上周股市被重创，但这似乎不太可能。标普500指数本周收盘下跌 1.2%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 319.26 点，跌幅 0.9%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.6%。小盘股罗素 2000 指数本周下跌 3.9%，周三收于回调区域。</blockquote> Those numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&amp;P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.<blockquote>这些数字未能反映本周的波动有多大。在周一小幅反弹后，道指周二暴跌652.22点。周三，它在早盘交易中反弹，然后回吐了这些涨幅，然后是一些涨幅，收盘下跌 461.68 点，标普500只有包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）在内的七只股票成功收高。周四，道琼斯指数创下 3 月份以来的最大涨幅，但苹果下跌 0.6%，此前有报道称，该公司正在让供应商为不温不火的 iPhone 需求做好准备。</blockquote> On Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.<blockquote>周五，纳斯达克遭受重创，包括 Adobe (ADBE)、特斯拉 (TSLA) 和英伟达 (NVDA) 在内的大型昂贵成长型股票终于陷入抛售。“Canaccord Genuity 分析师马丁-罗伯格（Martin Roberge）指出：”鉴于许多'成长型'股票的估值过高，后者在本周的调整中首当其冲。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.<blockquote>标普500本周收盘时较 2021 年高点下跌 3.5%，略低于该指数 9 月份的跌幅，当时每个人都预测调整从未到来。这次抛售看起来有更多的腿。对估值和即将到来的财报季的普遍担忧已经一去不复返了，取而代之的是新的 Covid 变种和美联储紧缩周期的开始。</blockquote> Omicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.<blockquote>奥密克戎本身已经够糟糕的了--没有人知道它会对经济造成多大伤害--但随后美联储主席鲍威尔不得不承认，通胀毕竟不是暂时的，缩减通胀的速度可能要快于预期。</blockquote> “He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.<blockquote>“CIBC Private Wealth US 首席投资官戴夫-多纳贝迪安（Dave Donabedian）说：”他如此强烈地依赖这一信息，这告诉你一些战略变化即将到来。</blockquote> The timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.<blockquote>时间有点奇怪。有关在美国发现奥密克戎的头条新闻已经困扰着市场。鲍威尔让事情变得更糟。尽管如此，也许投资者应该问他为什么选择在那一天发表评论，而不是问他的声明本可以更有力。“MKM Partners 首席经济学家迈克尔-达尔达（Michael Darda）说：”想象一下，如果没有变体，演讲会是什么样子。</blockquote> The thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.<blockquote>问题是，鉴于美国经济的实力，鲍威尔采取鹰派立场完全正确。尽管头条新闻大错特错，就业报告依然稳健，失业率降至4.2%，参与率升至61.8%。供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）的非制造业调查达到创纪录的 69.1，而制造业指数也保持在 60 以上。</blockquote> The data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.<blockquote>这些数据非常好，以至于亚特兰大联储对美国第四季度经济增长的 GDPNow 估计最近达到了 9.7%。定于本周五公布的消费者价格指数预计11月份将上涨0.65%。所有这些都表明，经济已经为收紧货币政策做好了准备，即使股市还没有。“达尔达说：”鲍威尔是对的，即使市场有点恐慌。</blockquote> Don’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.<blockquote>如果情况再糟糕一点，也不要感到惊讶。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为美联储对股市的威胁比奥密克戎更大</blockquote> Stock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师表示，股票投资者可能有比新型冠状病毒株的出现更重要的事情需要担心。</blockquote> While they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.<blockquote>虽然他们 “并不那么担心奥密克戎是股市的主要风险因素”，但在美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）暗示可能加速缩减资产购买规模后，策略师们认为其他地方也出现了不利因素。“以迈克尔-威尔逊（Michael Wilson）为首的策略师在给客户的一份报告中写道：”缩减规模正在收紧市场，这将导致估值下降，就像在任何复苏的这个阶段一样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2480f1a0450a30811b2f0b6e1a23b008\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., who&nbsp;singled out a hawkish turn&nbsp;by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan&nbsp;reiterated on Monday&nbsp;that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&amp;P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.<blockquote>这些言论呼应了其他策略师的观点，其中包括摩根大通的策略师，他们指出央行的鹰派转向是其股市前景的主要风险。不过，尽管摩根大通周一重申，其基本情景是股市上涨将持续到明年，但摩根士丹利认为标普500呈走低趋势，估值下降。</blockquote> “Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&amp;P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”<blockquote>“摩根士丹利策略师写道：”由于多种原因，股市正在恢复九个多月前开始的降级进程。他们预测，标普500远期市盈率将下降约 12%，而且 “随着股票投资者在预期长期利率大幅上升的情况下开始要求更高的风险溢价”，跌幅可能会更深。</blockquote> UBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.<blockquote>瑞银全球财富管理策略师周一表示，他们 “预计未来一段时间的波动性将加剧，因为投资者试图根据不充分和参差不齐的数据评估奥密克戎和美联储的风险”。虽然他们建议投资者不要仓促退出风险资产，但以马克·海菲尔为首的策略师表示，货币紧缩可能会给他们的基本情景带来悲观的情况。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-12-06 13:46\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nNow can we have a correction?<blockquote>现在我们可以更正一下了吗？</blockquote> We’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&amp;P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.<blockquote>我们本希望能有更好的结果，比如在年底融化。但是，由于发现了 Covid-19 的奥密克戎变种，股市在黑色星期五暴跌后，上周股市被重创，但这似乎不太可能。标普500指数本周收盘下跌 1.2%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 319.26 点，跌幅 0.9%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.6%。小盘股罗素 2000 指数本周下跌 3.9%，周三收于回调区域。</blockquote> Those numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&amp;P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.<blockquote>这些数字未能反映本周的波动有多大。在周一小幅反弹后，道指周二暴跌652.22点。周三，它在早盘交易中反弹，然后回吐了这些涨幅，然后是一些涨幅，收盘下跌 461.68 点，标普500只有包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）在内的七只股票成功收高。周四，道琼斯指数创下 3 月份以来的最大涨幅，但苹果下跌 0.6%，此前有报道称，该公司正在让供应商为不温不火的 iPhone 需求做好准备。</blockquote> On Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.<blockquote>周五，纳斯达克遭受重创，包括 Adobe (ADBE)、特斯拉 (TSLA) 和英伟达 (NVDA) 在内的大型昂贵成长型股票终于陷入抛售。“Canaccord Genuity 分析师马丁-罗伯格（Martin Roberge）指出：”鉴于许多'成长型'股票的估值过高，后者在本周的调整中首当其冲。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.<blockquote>标普500本周收盘时较 2021 年高点下跌 3.5%，略低于该指数 9 月份的跌幅，当时每个人都预测调整从未到来。这次抛售看起来有更多的腿。对估值和即将到来的财报季的普遍担忧已经一去不复返了，取而代之的是新的 Covid 变种和美联储紧缩周期的开始。</blockquote> Omicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.<blockquote>奥密克戎本身已经够糟糕的了--没有人知道它会对经济造成多大伤害--但随后美联储主席鲍威尔不得不承认，通胀毕竟不是暂时的，缩减通胀的速度可能要快于预期。</blockquote> “He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.<blockquote>“CIBC Private Wealth US 首席投资官戴夫-多纳贝迪安（Dave Donabedian）说：”他如此强烈地依赖这一信息，这告诉你一些战略变化即将到来。</blockquote> The timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.<blockquote>时间有点奇怪。有关在美国发现奥密克戎的头条新闻已经困扰着市场。鲍威尔让事情变得更糟。尽管如此，也许投资者应该问他为什么选择在那一天发表评论，而不是问他的声明本可以更有力。“MKM Partners 首席经济学家迈克尔-达尔达（Michael Darda）说：”想象一下，如果没有变体，演讲会是什么样子。</blockquote> The thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.<blockquote>问题是，鉴于美国经济的实力，鲍威尔采取鹰派立场完全正确。尽管头条新闻大错特错，就业报告依然稳健，失业率降至4.2%，参与率升至61.8%。供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）的非制造业调查达到创纪录的 69.1，而制造业指数也保持在 60 以上。</blockquote> The data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.<blockquote>这些数据非常好，以至于亚特兰大联储对美国第四季度经济增长的 GDPNow 估计最近达到了 9.7%。定于本周五公布的消费者价格指数预计11月份将上涨0.65%。所有这些都表明，经济已经为收紧货币政策做好了准备，即使股市还没有。“达尔达说：”鲍威尔是对的，即使市场有点恐慌。</blockquote> Don’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.<blockquote>如果情况再糟糕一点，也不要感到惊讶。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为美联储对股市的威胁比奥密克戎更大</blockquote> Stock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师表示，股票投资者可能有比新型冠状病毒株的出现更重要的事情需要担心。</blockquote> While they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.<blockquote>虽然他们 “并不那么担心奥密克戎是股市的主要风险因素”，但在美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）暗示可能加速缩减资产购买规模后，策略师们认为其他地方也出现了不利因素。“以迈克尔-威尔逊（Michael Wilson）为首的策略师在给客户的一份报告中写道：”缩减规模正在收紧市场，这将导致估值下降，就像在任何复苏的这个阶段一样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2480f1a0450a30811b2f0b6e1a23b008\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., who&nbsp;singled out a hawkish turn&nbsp;by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan&nbsp;reiterated on Monday&nbsp;that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&amp;P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.<blockquote>这些言论呼应了其他策略师的观点，其中包括摩根大通的策略师，他们指出央行的鹰派转向是其股市前景的主要风险。不过，尽管摩根大通周一重申，其基本情景是股市上涨将持续到明年，但摩根士丹利认为标普500呈走低趋势，估值下降。</blockquote> “Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&amp;P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”<blockquote>“摩根士丹利策略师写道：”由于多种原因，股市正在恢复九个多月前开始的降级进程。他们预测，标普500远期市盈率将下降约 12%，而且 “随着股票投资者在预期长期利率大幅上升的情况下开始要求更高的风险溢价”，跌幅可能会更深。</blockquote> UBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.<blockquote>瑞银全球财富管理策略师周一表示，他们 “预计未来一段时间的波动性将加剧，因为投资者试图根据不充分和参差不齐的数据评估奥密克戎和美联储的风险”。虽然他们建议投资者不要仓促退出风险资产，但以马克·海菲尔为首的策略师表示，货币紧缩可能会给他们的基本情景带来悲观的情况。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-covid-omicron-federal-reserve-51638575944\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-covid-omicron-federal-reserve-51638575944","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138852642","content_text":"Now can we have a correction?\nWe’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.\nThose numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.\nOn Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.\nThe S&P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.\nOmicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.\n“He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.\nThe timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.\nThe thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.\nThe data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.\nDon’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.\nMorgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron\nStock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.\nWhile they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.\n\nThe comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase & Co., who singled out a hawkish turn by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan reiterated on Monday that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.\n“Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”\nUBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":606035501,"gmtCreate":1638800425224,"gmtModify":1638800897903,"author":{"id":"4101714919433220","authorId":"4101714919433220","name":"RIMURU","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"4101714919433220","idStr":"4101714919433220"},"htmlText":"like follow&nbsp;","listText":"like follow&nbsp;","text":"like follow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606035501","repostId":1138852642,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1138852642","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638769615,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1138852642?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-06 13:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138852642","media":"Barrons","summary":"Now can we have a correction?\nWe’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the ye","content":"Now can we have a correction?<blockquote>现在我们可以更正一下了吗？</blockquote> We’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&amp;P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.<blockquote>我们本希望能有更好的结果，比如在年底融化。但是，由于发现了 Covid-19 的奥密克戎变种，股市在黑色星期五暴跌后，上周股市被重创，但这似乎不太可能。标普500指数本周收盘下跌 1.2%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 319.26 点，跌幅 0.9%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.6%。小盘股罗素 2000 指数本周下跌 3.9%，周三收于回调区域。</blockquote> Those numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&amp;P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.<blockquote>这些数字未能反映本周的波动有多大。在周一小幅反弹后，道指周二暴跌652.22点。周三，它在早盘交易中反弹，然后回吐了这些涨幅，然后是一些涨幅，收盘下跌 461.68 点，标普500只有包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）在内的七只股票成功收高。周四，道琼斯指数创下 3 月份以来的最大涨幅，但苹果下跌 0.6%，此前有报道称，该公司正在让供应商为不温不火的 iPhone 需求做好准备。</blockquote> On Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.<blockquote>周五，纳斯达克遭受重创，包括 Adobe (ADBE)、特斯拉 (TSLA) 和英伟达 (NVDA) 在内的大型昂贵成长型股票终于陷入抛售。“Canaccord Genuity 分析师马丁-罗伯格（Martin Roberge）指出：”鉴于许多'成长型'股票的估值过高，后者在本周的调整中首当其冲。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.<blockquote>标普500本周收盘时较 2021 年高点下跌 3.5%，略低于该指数 9 月份的跌幅，当时每个人都预测调整从未到来。这次抛售看起来有更多的腿。对估值和即将到来的财报季的普遍担忧已经一去不复返了，取而代之的是新的 Covid 变种和美联储紧缩周期的开始。</blockquote> Omicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.<blockquote>奥密克戎本身已经够糟糕的了--没有人知道它会对经济造成多大伤害--但随后美联储主席鲍威尔不得不承认，通胀毕竟不是暂时的，缩减通胀的速度可能要快于预期。</blockquote> “He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.<blockquote>“CIBC Private Wealth US 首席投资官戴夫-多纳贝迪安（Dave Donabedian）说：”他如此强烈地依赖这一信息，这告诉你一些战略变化即将到来。</blockquote> The timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.<blockquote>时间有点奇怪。有关在美国发现奥密克戎的头条新闻已经困扰着市场。鲍威尔让事情变得更糟。尽管如此，也许投资者应该问他为什么选择在那一天发表评论，而不是问他的声明本可以更有力。“MKM Partners 首席经济学家迈克尔-达尔达（Michael Darda）说：”想象一下，如果没有变体，演讲会是什么样子。</blockquote> The thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.<blockquote>问题是，鉴于美国经济的实力，鲍威尔采取鹰派立场完全正确。尽管头条新闻大错特错，就业报告依然稳健，失业率降至4.2%，参与率升至61.8%。供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）的非制造业调查达到创纪录的 69.1，而制造业指数也保持在 60 以上。</blockquote> The data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.<blockquote>这些数据非常好，以至于亚特兰大联储对美国第四季度经济增长的 GDPNow 估计最近达到了 9.7%。定于本周五公布的消费者价格指数预计11月份将上涨0.65%。所有这些都表明，经济已经为收紧货币政策做好了准备，即使股市还没有。“达尔达说：”鲍威尔是对的，即使市场有点恐慌。</blockquote> Don’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.<blockquote>如果情况再糟糕一点，也不要感到惊讶。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为美联储对股市的威胁比奥密克戎更大</blockquote> Stock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师表示，股票投资者可能有比新型冠状病毒株的出现更重要的事情需要担心。</blockquote> While they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.<blockquote>虽然他们 “并不那么担心奥密克戎是股市的主要风险因素”，但在美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）暗示可能加速缩减资产购买规模后，策略师们认为其他地方也出现了不利因素。“以迈克尔-威尔逊（Michael Wilson）为首的策略师在给客户的一份报告中写道：”缩减规模正在收紧市场，这将导致估值下降，就像在任何复苏的这个阶段一样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2480f1a0450a30811b2f0b6e1a23b008\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., who&nbsp;singled out a hawkish turn&nbsp;by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan&nbsp;reiterated on Monday&nbsp;that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&amp;P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.<blockquote>这些言论呼应了其他策略师的观点，其中包括摩根大通的策略师，他们指出央行的鹰派转向是其股市前景的主要风险。不过，尽管摩根大通周一重申，其基本情景是股市上涨将持续到明年，但摩根士丹利认为标普500呈走低趋势，估值下降。</blockquote> “Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&amp;P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”<blockquote>“摩根士丹利策略师写道：”由于多种原因，股市正在恢复九个多月前开始的降级进程。他们预测，标普500远期市盈率将下降约 12%，而且 “随着股票投资者在预期长期利率大幅上升的情况下开始要求更高的风险溢价”，跌幅可能会更深。</blockquote> UBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.<blockquote>瑞银全球财富管理策略师周一表示，他们 “预计未来一段时间的波动性将加剧，因为投资者试图根据不充分和参差不齐的数据评估奥密克戎和美联储的风险”。虽然他们建议投资者不要仓促退出风险资产，但以马克·海菲尔为首的策略师表示，货币紧缩可能会给他们的基本情景带来悲观的情况。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-12-06 13:46\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nNow can we have a correction?<blockquote>现在我们可以更正一下了吗？</blockquote> We’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&amp;P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.<blockquote>我们本希望能有更好的结果，比如在年底融化。但是，由于发现了 Covid-19 的奥密克戎变种，股市在黑色星期五暴跌后，上周股市被重创，但这似乎不太可能。标普500指数本周收盘下跌 1.2%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 319.26 点，跌幅 0.9%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.6%。小盘股罗素 2000 指数本周下跌 3.9%，周三收于回调区域。</blockquote> Those numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&amp;P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.<blockquote>这些数字未能反映本周的波动有多大。在周一小幅反弹后，道指周二暴跌652.22点。周三，它在早盘交易中反弹，然后回吐了这些涨幅，然后是一些涨幅，收盘下跌 461.68 点，标普500只有包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）在内的七只股票成功收高。周四，道琼斯指数创下 3 月份以来的最大涨幅，但苹果下跌 0.6%，此前有报道称，该公司正在让供应商为不温不火的 iPhone 需求做好准备。</blockquote> On Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.<blockquote>周五，纳斯达克遭受重创，包括 Adobe (ADBE)、特斯拉 (TSLA) 和英伟达 (NVDA) 在内的大型昂贵成长型股票终于陷入抛售。“Canaccord Genuity 分析师马丁-罗伯格（Martin Roberge）指出：”鉴于许多'成长型'股票的估值过高，后者在本周的调整中首当其冲。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.<blockquote>标普500本周收盘时较 2021 年高点下跌 3.5%，略低于该指数 9 月份的跌幅，当时每个人都预测调整从未到来。这次抛售看起来有更多的腿。对估值和即将到来的财报季的普遍担忧已经一去不复返了，取而代之的是新的 Covid 变种和美联储紧缩周期的开始。</blockquote> Omicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.<blockquote>奥密克戎本身已经够糟糕的了--没有人知道它会对经济造成多大伤害--但随后美联储主席鲍威尔不得不承认，通胀毕竟不是暂时的，缩减通胀的速度可能要快于预期。</blockquote> “He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.<blockquote>“CIBC Private Wealth US 首席投资官戴夫-多纳贝迪安（Dave Donabedian）说：”他如此强烈地依赖这一信息，这告诉你一些战略变化即将到来。</blockquote> The timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.<blockquote>时间有点奇怪。有关在美国发现奥密克戎的头条新闻已经困扰着市场。鲍威尔让事情变得更糟。尽管如此，也许投资者应该问他为什么选择在那一天发表评论，而不是问他的声明本可以更有力。“MKM Partners 首席经济学家迈克尔-达尔达（Michael Darda）说：”想象一下，如果没有变体，演讲会是什么样子。</blockquote> The thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.<blockquote>问题是，鉴于美国经济的实力，鲍威尔采取鹰派立场完全正确。尽管头条新闻大错特错，就业报告依然稳健，失业率降至4.2%，参与率升至61.8%。供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）的非制造业调查达到创纪录的 69.1，而制造业指数也保持在 60 以上。</blockquote> The data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.<blockquote>这些数据非常好，以至于亚特兰大联储对美国第四季度经济增长的 GDPNow 估计最近达到了 9.7%。定于本周五公布的消费者价格指数预计11月份将上涨0.65%。所有这些都表明，经济已经为收紧货币政策做好了准备，即使股市还没有。“达尔达说：”鲍威尔是对的，即使市场有点恐慌。</blockquote> Don’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.<blockquote>如果情况再糟糕一点，也不要感到惊讶。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为美联储对股市的威胁比奥密克戎更大</blockquote> Stock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师表示，股票投资者可能有比新型冠状病毒株的出现更重要的事情需要担心。</blockquote> While they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.<blockquote>虽然他们 “并不那么担心奥密克戎是股市的主要风险因素”，但在美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）暗示可能加速缩减资产购买规模后，策略师们认为其他地方也出现了不利因素。“以迈克尔-威尔逊（Michael Wilson）为首的策略师在给客户的一份报告中写道：”缩减规模正在收紧市场，这将导致估值下降，就像在任何复苏的这个阶段一样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2480f1a0450a30811b2f0b6e1a23b008\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., who&nbsp;singled out a hawkish turn&nbsp;by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan&nbsp;reiterated on Monday&nbsp;that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&amp;P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.<blockquote>这些言论呼应了其他策略师的观点，其中包括摩根大通的策略师，他们指出央行的鹰派转向是其股市前景的主要风险。不过，尽管摩根大通周一重申，其基本情景是股市上涨将持续到明年，但摩根士丹利认为标普500呈走低趋势，估值下降。</blockquote> “Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&amp;P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”<blockquote>“摩根士丹利策略师写道：”由于多种原因，股市正在恢复九个多月前开始的降级进程。他们预测，标普500远期市盈率将下降约 12%，而且 “随着股票投资者在预期长期利率大幅上升的情况下开始要求更高的风险溢价”，跌幅可能会更深。</blockquote> UBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.<blockquote>瑞银全球财富管理策略师周一表示，他们 “预计未来一段时间的波动性将加剧，因为投资者试图根据不充分和参差不齐的数据评估奥密克戎和美联储的风险”。虽然他们建议投资者不要仓促退出风险资产，但以马克·海菲尔为首的策略师表示，货币紧缩可能会给他们的基本情景带来悲观的情况。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-covid-omicron-federal-reserve-51638575944\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-covid-omicron-federal-reserve-51638575944","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138852642","content_text":"Now can we have a correction?\nWe’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.\nThose numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.\nOn Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.\nThe S&P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.\nOmicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.\n“He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.\nThe timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.\nThe thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.\nThe data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.\nDon’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.\nMorgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron\nStock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.\nWhile they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.\n\nThe comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase & Co., who singled out a hawkish turn by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan reiterated on Monday that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.\n“Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”\nUBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6871594,"gmtCreate":1638801738324,"gmtModify":1638801738415,"authorId":3567221235003553,"author":{"id":3567221235003553,"idStr":"3567221235003553","authorId":3567221235003553,"name":"JFK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8cdaf8b81ae245f2f2ea5ff303a6722","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":606035501,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":606039700,"gmtCreate":1638799769730,"gmtModify":1638800056749,"author":{"id":"4091758936365950","authorId":"4091758936365950","name":"MHh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54b2feced9ef5dcc9e95997d1f4db280","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"4091758936365950","idStr":"4091758936365950"},"htmlText":"Should have raised rates earlier when the market was somewhat expecting it. Now is anunpleasant surprise…","listText":"Should have raised rates earlier when the market was somewhat expecting it. Now is anunpleasant surprise…","text":"Should have raised rates earlier when the market was somewhat expecting it. Now is anunpleasant surprise…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606039700","repostId":1138852642,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138852642","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638769615,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1138852642?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-06 13:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138852642","media":"Barrons","summary":"Now can we have a correction?\nWe’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the ye","content":"Now can we have a correction?<blockquote>现在我们可以更正一下了吗？</blockquote> We’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&amp;P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.<blockquote>我们本希望能有更好的结果，比如在年底融化。但是，由于发现了 Covid-19 的奥密克戎变种，股市在黑色星期五暴跌后，上周股市被重创，但这似乎不太可能。标普500指数本周收盘下跌 1.2%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 319.26 点，跌幅 0.9%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.6%。小盘股罗素 2000 指数本周下跌 3.9%，周三收于回调区域。</blockquote> Those numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&amp;P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.<blockquote>这些数字未能反映本周的波动有多大。在周一小幅反弹后，道指周二暴跌652.22点。周三，它在早盘交易中反弹，然后回吐了这些涨幅，然后是一些涨幅，收盘下跌 461.68 点，标普500只有包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）在内的七只股票成功收高。周四，道琼斯指数创下 3 月份以来的最大涨幅，但苹果下跌 0.6%，此前有报道称，该公司正在让供应商为不温不火的 iPhone 需求做好准备。</blockquote> On Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.<blockquote>周五，纳斯达克遭受重创，包括 Adobe (ADBE)、特斯拉 (TSLA) 和英伟达 (NVDA) 在内的大型昂贵成长型股票终于陷入抛售。“Canaccord Genuity 分析师马丁-罗伯格（Martin Roberge）指出：”鉴于许多'成长型'股票的估值过高，后者在本周的调整中首当其冲。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.<blockquote>标普500本周收盘时较 2021 年高点下跌 3.5%，略低于该指数 9 月份的跌幅，当时每个人都预测调整从未到来。这次抛售看起来有更多的腿。对估值和即将到来的财报季的普遍担忧已经一去不复返了，取而代之的是新的 Covid 变种和美联储紧缩周期的开始。</blockquote> Omicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.<blockquote>奥密克戎本身已经够糟糕的了--没有人知道它会对经济造成多大伤害--但随后美联储主席鲍威尔不得不承认，通胀毕竟不是暂时的，缩减通胀的速度可能要快于预期。</blockquote> “He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.<blockquote>“CIBC Private Wealth US 首席投资官戴夫-多纳贝迪安（Dave Donabedian）说：”他如此强烈地依赖这一信息，这告诉你一些战略变化即将到来。</blockquote> The timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.<blockquote>时间有点奇怪。有关在美国发现奥密克戎的头条新闻已经困扰着市场。鲍威尔让事情变得更糟。尽管如此，也许投资者应该问他为什么选择在那一天发表评论，而不是问他的声明本可以更有力。“MKM Partners 首席经济学家迈克尔-达尔达（Michael Darda）说：”想象一下，如果没有变体，演讲会是什么样子。</blockquote> The thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.<blockquote>问题是，鉴于美国经济的实力，鲍威尔采取鹰派立场完全正确。尽管头条新闻大错特错，就业报告依然稳健，失业率降至4.2%，参与率升至61.8%。供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）的非制造业调查达到创纪录的 69.1，而制造业指数也保持在 60 以上。</blockquote> The data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.<blockquote>这些数据非常好，以至于亚特兰大联储对美国第四季度经济增长的 GDPNow 估计最近达到了 9.7%。定于本周五公布的消费者价格指数预计11月份将上涨0.65%。所有这些都表明，经济已经为收紧货币政策做好了准备，即使股市还没有。“达尔达说：”鲍威尔是对的，即使市场有点恐慌。</blockquote> Don’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.<blockquote>如果情况再糟糕一点，也不要感到惊讶。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为美联储对股市的威胁比奥密克戎更大</blockquote> Stock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师表示，股票投资者可能有比新型冠状病毒株的出现更重要的事情需要担心。</blockquote> While they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.<blockquote>虽然他们 “并不那么担心奥密克戎是股市的主要风险因素”，但在美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）暗示可能加速缩减资产购买规模后，策略师们认为其他地方也出现了不利因素。“以迈克尔-威尔逊（Michael Wilson）为首的策略师在给客户的一份报告中写道：”缩减规模正在收紧市场，这将导致估值下降，就像在任何复苏的这个阶段一样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2480f1a0450a30811b2f0b6e1a23b008\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., who&nbsp;singled out a hawkish turn&nbsp;by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan&nbsp;reiterated on Monday&nbsp;that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&amp;P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.<blockquote>这些言论呼应了其他策略师的观点，其中包括摩根大通的策略师，他们指出央行的鹰派转向是其股市前景的主要风险。不过，尽管摩根大通周一重申，其基本情景是股市上涨将持续到明年，但摩根士丹利认为标普500呈走低趋势，估值下降。</blockquote> “Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&amp;P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”<blockquote>“摩根士丹利策略师写道：”由于多种原因，股市正在恢复九个多月前开始的降级进程。他们预测，标普500远期市盈率将下降约 12%，而且 “随着股票投资者在预期长期利率大幅上升的情况下开始要求更高的风险溢价”，跌幅可能会更深。</blockquote> UBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.<blockquote>瑞银全球财富管理策略师周一表示，他们 “预计未来一段时间的波动性将加剧，因为投资者试图根据不充分和参差不齐的数据评估奥密克戎和美联储的风险”。虽然他们建议投资者不要仓促退出风险资产，但以马克·海菲尔为首的策略师表示，货币紧缩可能会给他们的基本情景带来悲观的情况。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-12-06 13:46\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nNow can we have a correction?<blockquote>现在我们可以更正一下了吗？</blockquote> We’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&amp;P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.<blockquote>我们本希望能有更好的结果，比如在年底融化。但是，由于发现了 Covid-19 的奥密克戎变种，股市在黑色星期五暴跌后，上周股市被重创，但这似乎不太可能。标普500指数本周收盘下跌 1.2%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 319.26 点，跌幅 0.9%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.6%。小盘股罗素 2000 指数本周下跌 3.9%，周三收于回调区域。</blockquote> Those numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&amp;P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.<blockquote>这些数字未能反映本周的波动有多大。在周一小幅反弹后，道指周二暴跌652.22点。周三，它在早盘交易中反弹，然后回吐了这些涨幅，然后是一些涨幅，收盘下跌 461.68 点，标普500只有包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）在内的七只股票成功收高。周四，道琼斯指数创下 3 月份以来的最大涨幅，但苹果下跌 0.6%，此前有报道称，该公司正在让供应商为不温不火的 iPhone 需求做好准备。</blockquote> On Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.<blockquote>周五，纳斯达克遭受重创，包括 Adobe (ADBE)、特斯拉 (TSLA) 和英伟达 (NVDA) 在内的大型昂贵成长型股票终于陷入抛售。“Canaccord Genuity 分析师马丁-罗伯格（Martin Roberge）指出：”鉴于许多'成长型'股票的估值过高，后者在本周的调整中首当其冲。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.<blockquote>标普500本周收盘时较 2021 年高点下跌 3.5%，略低于该指数 9 月份的跌幅，当时每个人都预测调整从未到来。这次抛售看起来有更多的腿。对估值和即将到来的财报季的普遍担忧已经一去不复返了，取而代之的是新的 Covid 变种和美联储紧缩周期的开始。</blockquote> Omicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.<blockquote>奥密克戎本身已经够糟糕的了--没有人知道它会对经济造成多大伤害--但随后美联储主席鲍威尔不得不承认，通胀毕竟不是暂时的，缩减通胀的速度可能要快于预期。</blockquote> “He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.<blockquote>“CIBC Private Wealth US 首席投资官戴夫-多纳贝迪安（Dave Donabedian）说：”他如此强烈地依赖这一信息，这告诉你一些战略变化即将到来。</blockquote> The timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.<blockquote>时间有点奇怪。有关在美国发现奥密克戎的头条新闻已经困扰着市场。鲍威尔让事情变得更糟。尽管如此，也许投资者应该问他为什么选择在那一天发表评论，而不是问他的声明本可以更有力。“MKM Partners 首席经济学家迈克尔-达尔达（Michael Darda）说：”想象一下，如果没有变体，演讲会是什么样子。</blockquote> The thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.<blockquote>问题是，鉴于美国经济的实力，鲍威尔采取鹰派立场完全正确。尽管头条新闻大错特错，就业报告依然稳健，失业率降至4.2%，参与率升至61.8%。供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）的非制造业调查达到创纪录的 69.1，而制造业指数也保持在 60 以上。</blockquote> The data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.<blockquote>这些数据非常好，以至于亚特兰大联储对美国第四季度经济增长的 GDPNow 估计最近达到了 9.7%。定于本周五公布的消费者价格指数预计11月份将上涨0.65%。所有这些都表明，经济已经为收紧货币政策做好了准备，即使股市还没有。“达尔达说：”鲍威尔是对的，即使市场有点恐慌。</blockquote> Don’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.<blockquote>如果情况再糟糕一点，也不要感到惊讶。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为美联储对股市的威胁比奥密克戎更大</blockquote> Stock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师表示，股票投资者可能有比新型冠状病毒株的出现更重要的事情需要担心。</blockquote> While they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.<blockquote>虽然他们 “并不那么担心奥密克戎是股市的主要风险因素”，但在美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）暗示可能加速缩减资产购买规模后，策略师们认为其他地方也出现了不利因素。“以迈克尔-威尔逊（Michael Wilson）为首的策略师在给客户的一份报告中写道：”缩减规模正在收紧市场，这将导致估值下降，就像在任何复苏的这个阶段一样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2480f1a0450a30811b2f0b6e1a23b008\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., who&nbsp;singled out a hawkish turn&nbsp;by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan&nbsp;reiterated on Monday&nbsp;that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&amp;P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.<blockquote>这些言论呼应了其他策略师的观点，其中包括摩根大通的策略师，他们指出央行的鹰派转向是其股市前景的主要风险。不过，尽管摩根大通周一重申，其基本情景是股市上涨将持续到明年，但摩根士丹利认为标普500呈走低趋势，估值下降。</blockquote> “Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&amp;P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”<blockquote>“摩根士丹利策略师写道：”由于多种原因，股市正在恢复九个多月前开始的降级进程。他们预测，标普500远期市盈率将下降约 12%，而且 “随着股票投资者在预期长期利率大幅上升的情况下开始要求更高的风险溢价”，跌幅可能会更深。</blockquote> UBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.<blockquote>瑞银全球财富管理策略师周一表示，他们 “预计未来一段时间的波动性将加剧，因为投资者试图根据不充分和参差不齐的数据评估奥密克戎和美联储的风险”。虽然他们建议投资者不要仓促退出风险资产，但以马克·海菲尔为首的策略师表示，货币紧缩可能会给他们的基本情景带来悲观的情况。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-covid-omicron-federal-reserve-51638575944\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-covid-omicron-federal-reserve-51638575944","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138852642","content_text":"Now can we have a correction?\nWe’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.\nThose numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.\nOn Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.\nThe S&P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.\nOmicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.\n“He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.\nThe timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.\nThe thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.\nThe data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.\nDon’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.\nMorgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron\nStock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.\nWhile they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.\n\nThe comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase & Co., who singled out a hawkish turn by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan reiterated on Monday that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.\n“Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”\nUBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":606039146,"gmtCreate":1638799710569,"gmtModify":1638804294235,"author":{"id":"3585001294737518","authorId":"3585001294737518","name":"Universe宇宙","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3585001294737518","idStr":"3585001294737518"},"htmlText":"What Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve","listText":"What Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve","text":"What Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606039146","repostId":1138852642,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138852642","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638769615,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1138852642?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-06 13:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138852642","media":"Barrons","summary":"Now can we have a correction?\nWe’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the ye","content":"Now can we have a correction?<blockquote>现在我们可以更正一下了吗？</blockquote> We’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&amp;P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.<blockquote>我们本希望能有更好的结果，比如在年底融化。但是，由于发现了 Covid-19 的奥密克戎变种，股市在黑色星期五暴跌后，上周股市被重创，但这似乎不太可能。标普500指数本周收盘下跌 1.2%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 319.26 点，跌幅 0.9%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.6%。小盘股罗素 2000 指数本周下跌 3.9%，周三收于回调区域。</blockquote> Those numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&amp;P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.<blockquote>这些数字未能反映本周的波动有多大。在周一小幅反弹后，道指周二暴跌652.22点。周三，它在早盘交易中反弹，然后回吐了这些涨幅，然后是一些涨幅，收盘下跌 461.68 点，标普500只有包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）在内的七只股票成功收高。周四，道琼斯指数创下 3 月份以来的最大涨幅，但苹果下跌 0.6%，此前有报道称，该公司正在让供应商为不温不火的 iPhone 需求做好准备。</blockquote> On Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.<blockquote>周五，纳斯达克遭受重创，包括 Adobe (ADBE)、特斯拉 (TSLA) 和英伟达 (NVDA) 在内的大型昂贵成长型股票终于陷入抛售。“Canaccord Genuity 分析师马丁-罗伯格（Martin Roberge）指出：”鉴于许多'成长型'股票的估值过高，后者在本周的调整中首当其冲。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.<blockquote>标普500本周收盘时较 2021 年高点下跌 3.5%，略低于该指数 9 月份的跌幅，当时每个人都预测调整从未到来。这次抛售看起来有更多的腿。对估值和即将到来的财报季的普遍担忧已经一去不复返了，取而代之的是新的 Covid 变种和美联储紧缩周期的开始。</blockquote> Omicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.<blockquote>奥密克戎本身已经够糟糕的了--没有人知道它会对经济造成多大伤害--但随后美联储主席鲍威尔不得不承认，通胀毕竟不是暂时的，缩减通胀的速度可能要快于预期。</blockquote> “He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.<blockquote>“CIBC Private Wealth US 首席投资官戴夫-多纳贝迪安（Dave Donabedian）说：”他如此强烈地依赖这一信息，这告诉你一些战略变化即将到来。</blockquote> The timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.<blockquote>时间有点奇怪。有关在美国发现奥密克戎的头条新闻已经困扰着市场。鲍威尔让事情变得更糟。尽管如此，也许投资者应该问他为什么选择在那一天发表评论，而不是问他的声明本可以更有力。“MKM Partners 首席经济学家迈克尔-达尔达（Michael Darda）说：”想象一下，如果没有变体，演讲会是什么样子。</blockquote> The thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.<blockquote>问题是，鉴于美国经济的实力，鲍威尔采取鹰派立场完全正确。尽管头条新闻大错特错，就业报告依然稳健，失业率降至4.2%，参与率升至61.8%。供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）的非制造业调查达到创纪录的 69.1，而制造业指数也保持在 60 以上。</blockquote> The data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.<blockquote>这些数据非常好，以至于亚特兰大联储对美国第四季度经济增长的 GDPNow 估计最近达到了 9.7%。定于本周五公布的消费者价格指数预计11月份将上涨0.65%。所有这些都表明，经济已经为收紧货币政策做好了准备，即使股市还没有。“达尔达说：”鲍威尔是对的，即使市场有点恐慌。</blockquote> Don’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.<blockquote>如果情况再糟糕一点，也不要感到惊讶。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为美联储对股市的威胁比奥密克戎更大</blockquote> Stock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师表示，股票投资者可能有比新型冠状病毒株的出现更重要的事情需要担心。</blockquote> While they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.<blockquote>虽然他们 “并不那么担心奥密克戎是股市的主要风险因素”，但在美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）暗示可能加速缩减资产购买规模后，策略师们认为其他地方也出现了不利因素。“以迈克尔-威尔逊（Michael Wilson）为首的策略师在给客户的一份报告中写道：”缩减规模正在收紧市场，这将导致估值下降，就像在任何复苏的这个阶段一样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2480f1a0450a30811b2f0b6e1a23b008\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., who&nbsp;singled out a hawkish turn&nbsp;by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan&nbsp;reiterated on Monday&nbsp;that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&amp;P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.<blockquote>这些言论呼应了其他策略师的观点，其中包括摩根大通的策略师，他们指出央行的鹰派转向是其股市前景的主要风险。不过，尽管摩根大通周一重申，其基本情景是股市上涨将持续到明年，但摩根士丹利认为标普500呈走低趋势，估值下降。</blockquote> “Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&amp;P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”<blockquote>“摩根士丹利策略师写道：”由于多种原因，股市正在恢复九个多月前开始的降级进程。他们预测，标普500远期市盈率将下降约 12%，而且 “随着股票投资者在预期长期利率大幅上升的情况下开始要求更高的风险溢价”，跌幅可能会更深。</blockquote> UBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.<blockquote>瑞银全球财富管理策略师周一表示，他们 “预计未来一段时间的波动性将加剧，因为投资者试图根据不充分和参差不齐的数据评估奥密克戎和美联储的风险”。虽然他们建议投资者不要仓促退出风险资产，但以马克·海菲尔为首的策略师表示，货币紧缩可能会给他们的基本情景带来悲观的情况。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-12-06 13:46\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nNow can we have a correction?<blockquote>现在我们可以更正一下了吗？</blockquote> We’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&amp;P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.<blockquote>我们本希望能有更好的结果，比如在年底融化。但是，由于发现了 Covid-19 的奥密克戎变种，股市在黑色星期五暴跌后，上周股市被重创，但这似乎不太可能。标普500指数本周收盘下跌 1.2%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 319.26 点，跌幅 0.9%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.6%。小盘股罗素 2000 指数本周下跌 3.9%，周三收于回调区域。</blockquote> Those numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&amp;P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.<blockquote>这些数字未能反映本周的波动有多大。在周一小幅反弹后，道指周二暴跌652.22点。周三，它在早盘交易中反弹，然后回吐了这些涨幅，然后是一些涨幅，收盘下跌 461.68 点，标普500只有包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）在内的七只股票成功收高。周四，道琼斯指数创下 3 月份以来的最大涨幅，但苹果下跌 0.6%，此前有报道称，该公司正在让供应商为不温不火的 iPhone 需求做好准备。</blockquote> On Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.<blockquote>周五，纳斯达克遭受重创，包括 Adobe (ADBE)、特斯拉 (TSLA) 和英伟达 (NVDA) 在内的大型昂贵成长型股票终于陷入抛售。“Canaccord Genuity 分析师马丁-罗伯格（Martin Roberge）指出：”鉴于许多'成长型'股票的估值过高，后者在本周的调整中首当其冲。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.<blockquote>标普500本周收盘时较 2021 年高点下跌 3.5%，略低于该指数 9 月份的跌幅，当时每个人都预测调整从未到来。这次抛售看起来有更多的腿。对估值和即将到来的财报季的普遍担忧已经一去不复返了，取而代之的是新的 Covid 变种和美联储紧缩周期的开始。</blockquote> Omicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.<blockquote>奥密克戎本身已经够糟糕的了--没有人知道它会对经济造成多大伤害--但随后美联储主席鲍威尔不得不承认，通胀毕竟不是暂时的，缩减通胀的速度可能要快于预期。</blockquote> “He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.<blockquote>“CIBC Private Wealth US 首席投资官戴夫-多纳贝迪安（Dave Donabedian）说：”他如此强烈地依赖这一信息，这告诉你一些战略变化即将到来。</blockquote> The timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.<blockquote>时间有点奇怪。有关在美国发现奥密克戎的头条新闻已经困扰着市场。鲍威尔让事情变得更糟。尽管如此，也许投资者应该问他为什么选择在那一天发表评论，而不是问他的声明本可以更有力。“MKM Partners 首席经济学家迈克尔-达尔达（Michael Darda）说：”想象一下，如果没有变体，演讲会是什么样子。</blockquote> The thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.<blockquote>问题是，鉴于美国经济的实力，鲍威尔采取鹰派立场完全正确。尽管头条新闻大错特错，就业报告依然稳健，失业率降至4.2%，参与率升至61.8%。供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）的非制造业调查达到创纪录的 69.1，而制造业指数也保持在 60 以上。</blockquote> The data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.<blockquote>这些数据非常好，以至于亚特兰大联储对美国第四季度经济增长的 GDPNow 估计最近达到了 9.7%。定于本周五公布的消费者价格指数预计11月份将上涨0.65%。所有这些都表明，经济已经为收紧货币政策做好了准备，即使股市还没有。“达尔达说：”鲍威尔是对的，即使市场有点恐慌。</blockquote> Don’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.<blockquote>如果情况再糟糕一点，也不要感到惊讶。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为美联储对股市的威胁比奥密克戎更大</blockquote> Stock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师表示，股票投资者可能有比新型冠状病毒株的出现更重要的事情需要担心。</blockquote> While they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.<blockquote>虽然他们 “并不那么担心奥密克戎是股市的主要风险因素”，但在美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）暗示可能加速缩减资产购买规模后，策略师们认为其他地方也出现了不利因素。“以迈克尔-威尔逊（Michael Wilson）为首的策略师在给客户的一份报告中写道：”缩减规模正在收紧市场，这将导致估值下降，就像在任何复苏的这个阶段一样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2480f1a0450a30811b2f0b6e1a23b008\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., who&nbsp;singled out a hawkish turn&nbsp;by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan&nbsp;reiterated on Monday&nbsp;that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&amp;P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.<blockquote>这些言论呼应了其他策略师的观点，其中包括摩根大通的策略师，他们指出央行的鹰派转向是其股市前景的主要风险。不过，尽管摩根大通周一重申，其基本情景是股市上涨将持续到明年，但摩根士丹利认为标普500呈走低趋势，估值下降。</blockquote> “Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&amp;P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”<blockquote>“摩根士丹利策略师写道：”由于多种原因，股市正在恢复九个多月前开始的降级进程。他们预测，标普500远期市盈率将下降约 12%，而且 “随着股票投资者在预期长期利率大幅上升的情况下开始要求更高的风险溢价”，跌幅可能会更深。</blockquote> UBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.<blockquote>瑞银全球财富管理策略师周一表示，他们 “预计未来一段时间的波动性将加剧，因为投资者试图根据不充分和参差不齐的数据评估奥密克戎和美联储的风险”。虽然他们建议投资者不要仓促退出风险资产，但以马克·海菲尔为首的策略师表示，货币紧缩可能会给他们的基本情景带来悲观的情况。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-covid-omicron-federal-reserve-51638575944\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-covid-omicron-federal-reserve-51638575944","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138852642","content_text":"Now can we have a correction?\nWe’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.\nThose numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.\nOn Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.\nThe S&P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.\nOmicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.\n“He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.\nThe timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.\nThe thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.\nThe data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.\nDon’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.\nMorgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron\nStock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.\nWhile they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.\n\nThe comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase & Co., who singled out a hawkish turn by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan reiterated on Monday that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.\n“Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”\nUBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6871101,"gmtCreate":1638799891490,"gmtModify":1638799891573,"authorId":3585001294737518,"author":{"id":3585001294737518,"idStr":"3585001294737518","authorId":3585001294737518,"name":"Universe宇宙","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":606039146,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Inflation has become hyperinflation? and Interest rate is still zero! [Spurting]","text":"Inflation has become hyperinflation? and Interest rate is still zero! [Spurting]","html":"Inflation has become hyperinflation? and Interest rate is still zero! [Spurting]"},{"id":6871081,"gmtCreate":1638799823661,"gmtModify":1638799823753,"authorId":3585001294737518,"author":{"id":3585001294737518,"idStr":"3585001294737518","authorId":3585001294737518,"name":"Universe宇宙","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":606039146,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Investor keep buying even their stocks is over-valued?","text":"Investor keep buying even their stocks is over-valued?","html":"Investor keep buying even their stocks is over-valued?"},{"id":6871075,"gmtCreate":1638799767178,"gmtModify":1638799767207,"authorId":3585001294737518,"author":{"id":3585001294737518,"idStr":"3585001294737518","authorId":3585001294737518,"name":"Universe宇宙","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":606039146,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Greed is more scary than the Federal Reserve. [Evil]","text":"Greed is more scary than the Federal Reserve. [Evil]","html":"Greed is more scary than the Federal Reserve. [Evil]"},{"id":6871065,"gmtCreate":1638799719153,"gmtModify":1638799719229,"authorId":3585001294737518,"author":{"id":3585001294737518,"idStr":"3585001294737518","authorId":3585001294737518,"name":"Universe宇宙","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":606039146,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"you sure?","text":"you sure?","html":"you sure?"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":606097966,"gmtCreate":1638799566551,"gmtModify":1638800040955,"author":{"id":"3578544701064972","authorId":"3578544701064972","name":"Joe0319","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b84d55e902f3cdc3167d94be984be1f","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3578544701064972","idStr":"3578544701064972"},"htmlText":"Likey like please","listText":"Likey like please","text":"Likey like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606097966","repostId":1138852642,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138852642","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638769615,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1138852642?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-06 13:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138852642","media":"Barrons","summary":"Now can we have a correction?\nWe’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the ye","content":"Now can we have a correction?<blockquote>现在我们可以更正一下了吗？</blockquote> We’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&amp;P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.<blockquote>我们本希望能有更好的结果，比如在年底融化。但是，由于发现了 Covid-19 的奥密克戎变种，股市在黑色星期五暴跌后，上周股市被重创，但这似乎不太可能。标普500指数本周收盘下跌 1.2%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 319.26 点，跌幅 0.9%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.6%。小盘股罗素 2000 指数本周下跌 3.9%，周三收于回调区域。</blockquote> Those numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&amp;P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.<blockquote>这些数字未能反映本周的波动有多大。在周一小幅反弹后，道指周二暴跌652.22点。周三，它在早盘交易中反弹，然后回吐了这些涨幅，然后是一些涨幅，收盘下跌 461.68 点，标普500只有包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）在内的七只股票成功收高。周四，道琼斯指数创下 3 月份以来的最大涨幅，但苹果下跌 0.6%，此前有报道称，该公司正在让供应商为不温不火的 iPhone 需求做好准备。</blockquote> On Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.<blockquote>周五，纳斯达克遭受重创，包括 Adobe (ADBE)、特斯拉 (TSLA) 和英伟达 (NVDA) 在内的大型昂贵成长型股票终于陷入抛售。“Canaccord Genuity 分析师马丁-罗伯格（Martin Roberge）指出：”鉴于许多'成长型'股票的估值过高，后者在本周的调整中首当其冲。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.<blockquote>标普500本周收盘时较 2021 年高点下跌 3.5%，略低于该指数 9 月份的跌幅，当时每个人都预测调整从未到来。这次抛售看起来有更多的腿。对估值和即将到来的财报季的普遍担忧已经一去不复返了，取而代之的是新的 Covid 变种和美联储紧缩周期的开始。</blockquote> Omicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.<blockquote>奥密克戎本身已经够糟糕的了--没有人知道它会对经济造成多大伤害--但随后美联储主席鲍威尔不得不承认，通胀毕竟不是暂时的，缩减通胀的速度可能要快于预期。</blockquote> “He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.<blockquote>“CIBC Private Wealth US 首席投资官戴夫-多纳贝迪安（Dave Donabedian）说：”他如此强烈地依赖这一信息，这告诉你一些战略变化即将到来。</blockquote> The timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.<blockquote>时间有点奇怪。有关在美国发现奥密克戎的头条新闻已经困扰着市场。鲍威尔让事情变得更糟。尽管如此，也许投资者应该问他为什么选择在那一天发表评论，而不是问他的声明本可以更有力。“MKM Partners 首席经济学家迈克尔-达尔达（Michael Darda）说：”想象一下，如果没有变体，演讲会是什么样子。</blockquote> The thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.<blockquote>问题是，鉴于美国经济的实力，鲍威尔采取鹰派立场完全正确。尽管头条新闻大错特错，就业报告依然稳健，失业率降至4.2%，参与率升至61.8%。供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）的非制造业调查达到创纪录的 69.1，而制造业指数也保持在 60 以上。</blockquote> The data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.<blockquote>这些数据非常好，以至于亚特兰大联储对美国第四季度经济增长的 GDPNow 估计最近达到了 9.7%。定于本周五公布的消费者价格指数预计11月份将上涨0.65%。所有这些都表明，经济已经为收紧货币政策做好了准备，即使股市还没有。“达尔达说：”鲍威尔是对的，即使市场有点恐慌。</blockquote> Don’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.<blockquote>如果情况再糟糕一点，也不要感到惊讶。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为美联储对股市的威胁比奥密克戎更大</blockquote> Stock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师表示，股票投资者可能有比新型冠状病毒株的出现更重要的事情需要担心。</blockquote> While they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.<blockquote>虽然他们 “并不那么担心奥密克戎是股市的主要风险因素”，但在美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）暗示可能加速缩减资产购买规模后，策略师们认为其他地方也出现了不利因素。“以迈克尔-威尔逊（Michael Wilson）为首的策略师在给客户的一份报告中写道：”缩减规模正在收紧市场，这将导致估值下降，就像在任何复苏的这个阶段一样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2480f1a0450a30811b2f0b6e1a23b008\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., who&nbsp;singled out a hawkish turn&nbsp;by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan&nbsp;reiterated on Monday&nbsp;that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&amp;P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.<blockquote>这些言论呼应了其他策略师的观点，其中包括摩根大通的策略师，他们指出央行的鹰派转向是其股市前景的主要风险。不过，尽管摩根大通周一重申，其基本情景是股市上涨将持续到明年，但摩根士丹利认为标普500呈走低趋势，估值下降。</blockquote> “Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&amp;P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”<blockquote>“摩根士丹利策略师写道：”由于多种原因，股市正在恢复九个多月前开始的降级进程。他们预测，标普500远期市盈率将下降约 12%，而且 “随着股票投资者在预期长期利率大幅上升的情况下开始要求更高的风险溢价”，跌幅可能会更深。</blockquote> UBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.<blockquote>瑞银全球财富管理策略师周一表示，他们 “预计未来一段时间的波动性将加剧，因为投资者试图根据不充分和参差不齐的数据评估奥密克戎和美联储的风险”。虽然他们建议投资者不要仓促退出风险资产，但以马克·海菲尔为首的策略师表示，货币紧缩可能会给他们的基本情景带来悲观的情况。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-12-06 13:46\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nNow can we have a correction?<blockquote>现在我们可以更正一下了吗？</blockquote> We’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&amp;P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.<blockquote>我们本希望能有更好的结果，比如在年底融化。但是，由于发现了 Covid-19 的奥密克戎变种，股市在黑色星期五暴跌后，上周股市被重创，但这似乎不太可能。标普500指数本周收盘下跌 1.2%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 319.26 点，跌幅 0.9%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.6%。小盘股罗素 2000 指数本周下跌 3.9%，周三收于回调区域。</blockquote> Those numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&amp;P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.<blockquote>这些数字未能反映本周的波动有多大。在周一小幅反弹后，道指周二暴跌652.22点。周三，它在早盘交易中反弹，然后回吐了这些涨幅，然后是一些涨幅，收盘下跌 461.68 点，标普500只有包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）在内的七只股票成功收高。周四，道琼斯指数创下 3 月份以来的最大涨幅，但苹果下跌 0.6%，此前有报道称，该公司正在让供应商为不温不火的 iPhone 需求做好准备。</blockquote> On Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.<blockquote>周五，纳斯达克遭受重创，包括 Adobe (ADBE)、特斯拉 (TSLA) 和英伟达 (NVDA) 在内的大型昂贵成长型股票终于陷入抛售。“Canaccord Genuity 分析师马丁-罗伯格（Martin Roberge）指出：”鉴于许多'成长型'股票的估值过高，后者在本周的调整中首当其冲。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.<blockquote>标普500本周收盘时较 2021 年高点下跌 3.5%，略低于该指数 9 月份的跌幅，当时每个人都预测调整从未到来。这次抛售看起来有更多的腿。对估值和即将到来的财报季的普遍担忧已经一去不复返了，取而代之的是新的 Covid 变种和美联储紧缩周期的开始。</blockquote> Omicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.<blockquote>奥密克戎本身已经够糟糕的了--没有人知道它会对经济造成多大伤害--但随后美联储主席鲍威尔不得不承认，通胀毕竟不是暂时的，缩减通胀的速度可能要快于预期。</blockquote> “He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.<blockquote>“CIBC Private Wealth US 首席投资官戴夫-多纳贝迪安（Dave Donabedian）说：”他如此强烈地依赖这一信息，这告诉你一些战略变化即将到来。</blockquote> The timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.<blockquote>时间有点奇怪。有关在美国发现奥密克戎的头条新闻已经困扰着市场。鲍威尔让事情变得更糟。尽管如此，也许投资者应该问他为什么选择在那一天发表评论，而不是问他的声明本可以更有力。“MKM Partners 首席经济学家迈克尔-达尔达（Michael Darda）说：”想象一下，如果没有变体，演讲会是什么样子。</blockquote> The thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.<blockquote>问题是，鉴于美国经济的实力，鲍威尔采取鹰派立场完全正确。尽管头条新闻大错特错，就业报告依然稳健，失业率降至4.2%，参与率升至61.8%。供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）的非制造业调查达到创纪录的 69.1，而制造业指数也保持在 60 以上。</blockquote> The data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.<blockquote>这些数据非常好，以至于亚特兰大联储对美国第四季度经济增长的 GDPNow 估计最近达到了 9.7%。定于本周五公布的消费者价格指数预计11月份将上涨0.65%。所有这些都表明，经济已经为收紧货币政策做好了准备，即使股市还没有。“达尔达说：”鲍威尔是对的，即使市场有点恐慌。</blockquote> Don’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.<blockquote>如果情况再糟糕一点，也不要感到惊讶。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为美联储对股市的威胁比奥密克戎更大</blockquote> Stock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师表示，股票投资者可能有比新型冠状病毒株的出现更重要的事情需要担心。</blockquote> While they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.<blockquote>虽然他们 “并不那么担心奥密克戎是股市的主要风险因素”，但在美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）暗示可能加速缩减资产购买规模后，策略师们认为其他地方也出现了不利因素。“以迈克尔-威尔逊（Michael Wilson）为首的策略师在给客户的一份报告中写道：”缩减规模正在收紧市场，这将导致估值下降，就像在任何复苏的这个阶段一样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2480f1a0450a30811b2f0b6e1a23b008\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., who&nbsp;singled out a hawkish turn&nbsp;by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan&nbsp;reiterated on Monday&nbsp;that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&amp;P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.<blockquote>这些言论呼应了其他策略师的观点，其中包括摩根大通的策略师，他们指出央行的鹰派转向是其股市前景的主要风险。不过，尽管摩根大通周一重申，其基本情景是股市上涨将持续到明年，但摩根士丹利认为标普500呈走低趋势，估值下降。</blockquote> “Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&amp;P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”<blockquote>“摩根士丹利策略师写道：”由于多种原因，股市正在恢复九个多月前开始的降级进程。他们预测，标普500远期市盈率将下降约 12%，而且 “随着股票投资者在预期长期利率大幅上升的情况下开始要求更高的风险溢价”，跌幅可能会更深。</blockquote> UBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.<blockquote>瑞银全球财富管理策略师周一表示，他们 “预计未来一段时间的波动性将加剧，因为投资者试图根据不充分和参差不齐的数据评估奥密克戎和美联储的风险”。虽然他们建议投资者不要仓促退出风险资产，但以马克·海菲尔为首的策略师表示，货币紧缩可能会给他们的基本情景带来悲观的情况。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-covid-omicron-federal-reserve-51638575944\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-covid-omicron-federal-reserve-51638575944","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138852642","content_text":"Now can we have a correction?\nWe’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.\nThose numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.\nOn Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.\nThe S&P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.\nOmicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.\n“He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.\nThe timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.\nThe thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.\nThe data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.\nDon’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.\nMorgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron\nStock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.\nWhile they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.\n\nThe comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase & Co., who singled out a hawkish turn by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan reiterated on Monday that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.\n“Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”\nUBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6871412,"gmtCreate":1638801237032,"gmtModify":1638801237131,"authorId":4100955241207960,"author":{"id":4100955241207960,"idStr":"4100955241207960","authorId":4100955241207960,"name":"SimplicityB","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":606097966,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":606092355,"gmtCreate":1638799283893,"gmtModify":1638800035612,"author":{"id":"4094557117203060","authorId":"4094557117203060","name":"YS82","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00edaee27a12bd6d16f16f29a3f0c55d","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"4094557117203060","idStr":"4094557117203060"},"htmlText":"More pain may be on the way…. But it doesn’t mean it is a bad thing in long term","listText":"More pain may be on the way…. But it doesn’t mean it is a bad thing in long term","text":"More pain may be on the way…. But it doesn’t mean it is a bad thing in long term","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606092355","repostId":1138852642,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138852642","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638769615,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1138852642?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-06 13:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138852642","media":"Barrons","summary":"Now can we have a correction?\nWe’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the ye","content":"Now can we have a correction?<blockquote>现在我们可以更正一下了吗？</blockquote> We’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&amp;P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.<blockquote>我们本希望能有更好的结果，比如在年底融化。但是，由于发现了 Covid-19 的奥密克戎变种，股市在黑色星期五暴跌后，上周股市被重创，但这似乎不太可能。标普500指数本周收盘下跌 1.2%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 319.26 点，跌幅 0.9%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.6%。小盘股罗素 2000 指数本周下跌 3.9%，周三收于回调区域。</blockquote> Those numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&amp;P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.<blockquote>这些数字未能反映本周的波动有多大。在周一小幅反弹后，道指周二暴跌652.22点。周三，它在早盘交易中反弹，然后回吐了这些涨幅，然后是一些涨幅，收盘下跌 461.68 点，标普500只有包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）在内的七只股票成功收高。周四，道琼斯指数创下 3 月份以来的最大涨幅，但苹果下跌 0.6%，此前有报道称，该公司正在让供应商为不温不火的 iPhone 需求做好准备。</blockquote> On Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.<blockquote>周五，纳斯达克遭受重创，包括 Adobe (ADBE)、特斯拉 (TSLA) 和英伟达 (NVDA) 在内的大型昂贵成长型股票终于陷入抛售。“Canaccord Genuity 分析师马丁-罗伯格（Martin Roberge）指出：”鉴于许多'成长型'股票的估值过高，后者在本周的调整中首当其冲。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.<blockquote>标普500本周收盘时较 2021 年高点下跌 3.5%，略低于该指数 9 月份的跌幅，当时每个人都预测调整从未到来。这次抛售看起来有更多的腿。对估值和即将到来的财报季的普遍担忧已经一去不复返了，取而代之的是新的 Covid 变种和美联储紧缩周期的开始。</blockquote> Omicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.<blockquote>奥密克戎本身已经够糟糕的了--没有人知道它会对经济造成多大伤害--但随后美联储主席鲍威尔不得不承认，通胀毕竟不是暂时的，缩减通胀的速度可能要快于预期。</blockquote> “He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.<blockquote>“CIBC Private Wealth US 首席投资官戴夫-多纳贝迪安（Dave Donabedian）说：”他如此强烈地依赖这一信息，这告诉你一些战略变化即将到来。</blockquote> The timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.<blockquote>时间有点奇怪。有关在美国发现奥密克戎的头条新闻已经困扰着市场。鲍威尔让事情变得更糟。尽管如此，也许投资者应该问他为什么选择在那一天发表评论，而不是问他的声明本可以更有力。“MKM Partners 首席经济学家迈克尔-达尔达（Michael Darda）说：”想象一下，如果没有变体，演讲会是什么样子。</blockquote> The thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.<blockquote>问题是，鉴于美国经济的实力，鲍威尔采取鹰派立场完全正确。尽管头条新闻大错特错，就业报告依然稳健，失业率降至4.2%，参与率升至61.8%。供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）的非制造业调查达到创纪录的 69.1，而制造业指数也保持在 60 以上。</blockquote> The data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.<blockquote>这些数据非常好，以至于亚特兰大联储对美国第四季度经济增长的 GDPNow 估计最近达到了 9.7%。定于本周五公布的消费者价格指数预计11月份将上涨0.65%。所有这些都表明，经济已经为收紧货币政策做好了准备，即使股市还没有。“达尔达说：”鲍威尔是对的，即使市场有点恐慌。</blockquote> Don’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.<blockquote>如果情况再糟糕一点，也不要感到惊讶。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为美联储对股市的威胁比奥密克戎更大</blockquote> Stock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师表示，股票投资者可能有比新型冠状病毒株的出现更重要的事情需要担心。</blockquote> While they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.<blockquote>虽然他们 “并不那么担心奥密克戎是股市的主要风险因素”，但在美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）暗示可能加速缩减资产购买规模后，策略师们认为其他地方也出现了不利因素。“以迈克尔-威尔逊（Michael Wilson）为首的策略师在给客户的一份报告中写道：”缩减规模正在收紧市场，这将导致估值下降，就像在任何复苏的这个阶段一样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2480f1a0450a30811b2f0b6e1a23b008\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., who&nbsp;singled out a hawkish turn&nbsp;by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan&nbsp;reiterated on Monday&nbsp;that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&amp;P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.<blockquote>这些言论呼应了其他策略师的观点，其中包括摩根大通的策略师，他们指出央行的鹰派转向是其股市前景的主要风险。不过，尽管摩根大通周一重申，其基本情景是股市上涨将持续到明年，但摩根士丹利认为标普500呈走低趋势，估值下降。</blockquote> “Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&amp;P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”<blockquote>“摩根士丹利策略师写道：”由于多种原因，股市正在恢复九个多月前开始的降级进程。他们预测，标普500远期市盈率将下降约 12%，而且 “随着股票投资者在预期长期利率大幅上升的情况下开始要求更高的风险溢价”，跌幅可能会更深。</blockquote> UBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.<blockquote>瑞银全球财富管理策略师周一表示，他们 “预计未来一段时间的波动性将加剧，因为投资者试图根据不充分和参差不齐的数据评估奥密克戎和美联储的风险”。虽然他们建议投资者不要仓促退出风险资产，但以马克·海菲尔为首的策略师表示，货币紧缩可能会给他们的基本情景带来悲观的情况。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-12-06 13:46\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nNow can we have a correction?<blockquote>现在我们可以更正一下了吗？</blockquote> We’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&amp;P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.<blockquote>我们本希望能有更好的结果，比如在年底融化。但是，由于发现了 Covid-19 的奥密克戎变种，股市在黑色星期五暴跌后，上周股市被重创，但这似乎不太可能。标普500指数本周收盘下跌 1.2%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 319.26 点，跌幅 0.9%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.6%。小盘股罗素 2000 指数本周下跌 3.9%，周三收于回调区域。</blockquote> Those numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&amp;P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.<blockquote>这些数字未能反映本周的波动有多大。在周一小幅反弹后，道指周二暴跌652.22点。周三，它在早盘交易中反弹，然后回吐了这些涨幅，然后是一些涨幅，收盘下跌 461.68 点，标普500只有包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）在内的七只股票成功收高。周四，道琼斯指数创下 3 月份以来的最大涨幅，但苹果下跌 0.6%，此前有报道称，该公司正在让供应商为不温不火的 iPhone 需求做好准备。</blockquote> On Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.<blockquote>周五，纳斯达克遭受重创，包括 Adobe (ADBE)、特斯拉 (TSLA) 和英伟达 (NVDA) 在内的大型昂贵成长型股票终于陷入抛售。“Canaccord Genuity 分析师马丁-罗伯格（Martin Roberge）指出：”鉴于许多'成长型'股票的估值过高，后者在本周的调整中首当其冲。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.<blockquote>标普500本周收盘时较 2021 年高点下跌 3.5%，略低于该指数 9 月份的跌幅，当时每个人都预测调整从未到来。这次抛售看起来有更多的腿。对估值和即将到来的财报季的普遍担忧已经一去不复返了，取而代之的是新的 Covid 变种和美联储紧缩周期的开始。</blockquote> Omicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.<blockquote>奥密克戎本身已经够糟糕的了--没有人知道它会对经济造成多大伤害--但随后美联储主席鲍威尔不得不承认，通胀毕竟不是暂时的，缩减通胀的速度可能要快于预期。</blockquote> “He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.<blockquote>“CIBC Private Wealth US 首席投资官戴夫-多纳贝迪安（Dave Donabedian）说：”他如此强烈地依赖这一信息，这告诉你一些战略变化即将到来。</blockquote> The timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.<blockquote>时间有点奇怪。有关在美国发现奥密克戎的头条新闻已经困扰着市场。鲍威尔让事情变得更糟。尽管如此，也许投资者应该问他为什么选择在那一天发表评论，而不是问他的声明本可以更有力。“MKM Partners 首席经济学家迈克尔-达尔达（Michael Darda）说：”想象一下，如果没有变体，演讲会是什么样子。</blockquote> The thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.<blockquote>问题是，鉴于美国经济的实力，鲍威尔采取鹰派立场完全正确。尽管头条新闻大错特错，就业报告依然稳健，失业率降至4.2%，参与率升至61.8%。供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）的非制造业调查达到创纪录的 69.1，而制造业指数也保持在 60 以上。</blockquote> The data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.<blockquote>这些数据非常好，以至于亚特兰大联储对美国第四季度经济增长的 GDPNow 估计最近达到了 9.7%。定于本周五公布的消费者价格指数预计11月份将上涨0.65%。所有这些都表明，经济已经为收紧货币政策做好了准备，即使股市还没有。“达尔达说：”鲍威尔是对的，即使市场有点恐慌。</blockquote> Don’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.<blockquote>如果情况再糟糕一点，也不要感到惊讶。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为美联储对股市的威胁比奥密克戎更大</blockquote> Stock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师表示，股票投资者可能有比新型冠状病毒株的出现更重要的事情需要担心。</blockquote> While they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.<blockquote>虽然他们 “并不那么担心奥密克戎是股市的主要风险因素”，但在美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）暗示可能加速缩减资产购买规模后，策略师们认为其他地方也出现了不利因素。“以迈克尔-威尔逊（Michael Wilson）为首的策略师在给客户的一份报告中写道：”缩减规模正在收紧市场，这将导致估值下降，就像在任何复苏的这个阶段一样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2480f1a0450a30811b2f0b6e1a23b008\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., who&nbsp;singled out a hawkish turn&nbsp;by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan&nbsp;reiterated on Monday&nbsp;that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&amp;P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.<blockquote>这些言论呼应了其他策略师的观点，其中包括摩根大通的策略师，他们指出央行的鹰派转向是其股市前景的主要风险。不过，尽管摩根大通周一重申，其基本情景是股市上涨将持续到明年，但摩根士丹利认为标普500呈走低趋势，估值下降。</blockquote> “Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&amp;P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”<blockquote>“摩根士丹利策略师写道：”由于多种原因，股市正在恢复九个多月前开始的降级进程。他们预测，标普500远期市盈率将下降约 12%，而且 “随着股票投资者在预期长期利率大幅上升的情况下开始要求更高的风险溢价”，跌幅可能会更深。</blockquote> UBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.<blockquote>瑞银全球财富管理策略师周一表示，他们 “预计未来一段时间的波动性将加剧，因为投资者试图根据不充分和参差不齐的数据评估奥密克戎和美联储的风险”。虽然他们建议投资者不要仓促退出风险资产，但以马克·海菲尔为首的策略师表示，货币紧缩可能会给他们的基本情景带来悲观的情况。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-covid-omicron-federal-reserve-51638575944\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-covid-omicron-federal-reserve-51638575944","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138852642","content_text":"Now can we have a correction?\nWe’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.\nThose numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.\nOn Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.\nThe S&P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.\nOmicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.\n“He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.\nThe timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.\nThe thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.\nThe data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.\nDon’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.\nMorgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron\nStock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.\nWhile they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.\n\nThe comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase & Co., who singled out a hawkish turn by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan reiterated on Monday that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.\n“Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”\nUBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6871232,"gmtCreate":1638800593858,"gmtModify":1638800593888,"authorId":4094557117203060,"author":{"id":4094557117203060,"idStr":"4094557117203060","authorId":4094557117203060,"name":"YS82","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00edaee27a12bd6d16f16f29a3f0c55d","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":606092355,"type":1,"supId":6871224,"prevId":0,"content":"Yup! [Happy]","text":"Yup! [Happy]","html":"Yup! [Happy]"},{"id":6871224,"gmtCreate":1638800563151,"gmtModify":1638800563257,"authorId":3577182936341023,"author":{"id":3577182936341023,"idStr":"3577182936341023","authorId":3577182936341023,"name":"MIe","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":606092355,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Buy dip invest defensive ","text":"Buy dip invest defensive ","html":"Buy dip invest defensive "},{"id":6870987,"gmtCreate":1638799398925,"gmtModify":1638799399036,"authorId":3586490126059662,"author":{"id":3586490126059662,"idStr":"3586490126059662","authorId":3586490126059662,"name":"SlowNana","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":606092355,"type":1,"supId":6870965,"prevId":0,"content":"[Cry]","text":"[Cry]","html":"[Cry]"},{"id":6870965,"gmtCreate":1638799332432,"gmtModify":1638799332464,"authorId":3581563418944392,"author":{"id":3581563418944392,"idStr":"3581563418944392","authorId":3581563418944392,"name":"Andrewinho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3127e2bc40ab23064a5187a00a63e19b","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":606092355,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","html":"👍👍👍"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":608490579,"gmtCreate":1638770851893,"gmtModify":1638770852001,"author":{"id":"3581643164424811","authorId":"3581643164424811","name":"我不是股神我是赌神","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e971ed6e3f7b6495a07f7b9b5007ee5","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3581643164424811","idStr":"3581643164424811"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608490579","repostId":1138852642,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138852642","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638769615,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1138852642?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-06 13:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138852642","media":"Barrons","summary":"Now can we have a correction?\nWe’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the ye","content":"Now can we have a correction?<blockquote>现在我们可以更正一下了吗？</blockquote> We’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&amp;P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.<blockquote>我们本希望能有更好的结果，比如在年底融化。但是，由于发现了 Covid-19 的奥密克戎变种，股市在黑色星期五暴跌后，上周股市被重创，但这似乎不太可能。标普500指数本周收盘下跌 1.2%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 319.26 点，跌幅 0.9%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.6%。小盘股罗素 2000 指数本周下跌 3.9%，周三收于回调区域。</blockquote> Those numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&amp;P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.<blockquote>这些数字未能反映本周的波动有多大。在周一小幅反弹后，道指周二暴跌652.22点。周三，它在早盘交易中反弹，然后回吐了这些涨幅，然后是一些涨幅，收盘下跌 461.68 点，标普500只有包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）在内的七只股票成功收高。周四，道琼斯指数创下 3 月份以来的最大涨幅，但苹果下跌 0.6%，此前有报道称，该公司正在让供应商为不温不火的 iPhone 需求做好准备。</blockquote> On Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.<blockquote>周五，纳斯达克遭受重创，包括 Adobe (ADBE)、特斯拉 (TSLA) 和英伟达 (NVDA) 在内的大型昂贵成长型股票终于陷入抛售。“Canaccord Genuity 分析师马丁-罗伯格（Martin Roberge）指出：”鉴于许多'成长型'股票的估值过高，后者在本周的调整中首当其冲。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.<blockquote>标普500本周收盘时较 2021 年高点下跌 3.5%，略低于该指数 9 月份的跌幅，当时每个人都预测调整从未到来。这次抛售看起来有更多的腿。对估值和即将到来的财报季的普遍担忧已经一去不复返了，取而代之的是新的 Covid 变种和美联储紧缩周期的开始。</blockquote> Omicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.<blockquote>奥密克戎本身已经够糟糕的了--没有人知道它会对经济造成多大伤害--但随后美联储主席鲍威尔不得不承认，通胀毕竟不是暂时的，缩减通胀的速度可能要快于预期。</blockquote> “He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.<blockquote>“CIBC Private Wealth US 首席投资官戴夫-多纳贝迪安（Dave Donabedian）说：”他如此强烈地依赖这一信息，这告诉你一些战略变化即将到来。</blockquote> The timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.<blockquote>时间有点奇怪。有关在美国发现奥密克戎的头条新闻已经困扰着市场。鲍威尔让事情变得更糟。尽管如此，也许投资者应该问他为什么选择在那一天发表评论，而不是问他的声明本可以更有力。“MKM Partners 首席经济学家迈克尔-达尔达（Michael Darda）说：”想象一下，如果没有变体，演讲会是什么样子。</blockquote> The thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.<blockquote>问题是，鉴于美国经济的实力，鲍威尔采取鹰派立场完全正确。尽管头条新闻大错特错，就业报告依然稳健，失业率降至4.2%，参与率升至61.8%。供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）的非制造业调查达到创纪录的 69.1，而制造业指数也保持在 60 以上。</blockquote> The data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.<blockquote>这些数据非常好，以至于亚特兰大联储对美国第四季度经济增长的 GDPNow 估计最近达到了 9.7%。定于本周五公布的消费者价格指数预计11月份将上涨0.65%。所有这些都表明，经济已经为收紧货币政策做好了准备，即使股市还没有。“达尔达说：”鲍威尔是对的，即使市场有点恐慌。</blockquote> Don’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.<blockquote>如果情况再糟糕一点，也不要感到惊讶。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为美联储对股市的威胁比奥密克戎更大</blockquote> Stock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师表示，股票投资者可能有比新型冠状病毒株的出现更重要的事情需要担心。</blockquote> While they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.<blockquote>虽然他们 “并不那么担心奥密克戎是股市的主要风险因素”，但在美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）暗示可能加速缩减资产购买规模后，策略师们认为其他地方也出现了不利因素。“以迈克尔-威尔逊（Michael Wilson）为首的策略师在给客户的一份报告中写道：”缩减规模正在收紧市场，这将导致估值下降，就像在任何复苏的这个阶段一样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2480f1a0450a30811b2f0b6e1a23b008\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., who&nbsp;singled out a hawkish turn&nbsp;by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan&nbsp;reiterated on Monday&nbsp;that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&amp;P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.<blockquote>这些言论呼应了其他策略师的观点，其中包括摩根大通的策略师，他们指出央行的鹰派转向是其股市前景的主要风险。不过，尽管摩根大通周一重申，其基本情景是股市上涨将持续到明年，但摩根士丹利认为标普500呈走低趋势，估值下降。</blockquote> “Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&amp;P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”<blockquote>“摩根士丹利策略师写道：”由于多种原因，股市正在恢复九个多月前开始的降级进程。他们预测，标普500远期市盈率将下降约 12%，而且 “随着股票投资者在预期长期利率大幅上升的情况下开始要求更高的风险溢价”，跌幅可能会更深。</blockquote> UBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.<blockquote>瑞银全球财富管理策略师周一表示，他们 “预计未来一段时间的波动性将加剧，因为投资者试图根据不充分和参差不齐的数据评估奥密克戎和美联储的风险”。虽然他们建议投资者不要仓促退出风险资产，但以马克·海菲尔为首的策略师表示，货币紧缩可能会给他们的基本情景带来悲观的情况。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-12-06 13:46\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nNow can we have a correction?<blockquote>现在我们可以更正一下了吗？</blockquote> We’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&amp;P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.<blockquote>我们本希望能有更好的结果，比如在年底融化。但是，由于发现了 Covid-19 的奥密克戎变种，股市在黑色星期五暴跌后，上周股市被重创，但这似乎不太可能。标普500指数本周收盘下跌 1.2%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 319.26 点，跌幅 0.9%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.6%。小盘股罗素 2000 指数本周下跌 3.9%，周三收于回调区域。</blockquote> Those numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&amp;P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.<blockquote>这些数字未能反映本周的波动有多大。在周一小幅反弹后，道指周二暴跌652.22点。周三，它在早盘交易中反弹，然后回吐了这些涨幅，然后是一些涨幅，收盘下跌 461.68 点，标普500只有包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）在内的七只股票成功收高。周四，道琼斯指数创下 3 月份以来的最大涨幅，但苹果下跌 0.6%，此前有报道称，该公司正在让供应商为不温不火的 iPhone 需求做好准备。</blockquote> On Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.<blockquote>周五，纳斯达克遭受重创，包括 Adobe (ADBE)、特斯拉 (TSLA) 和英伟达 (NVDA) 在内的大型昂贵成长型股票终于陷入抛售。“Canaccord Genuity 分析师马丁-罗伯格（Martin Roberge）指出：”鉴于许多'成长型'股票的估值过高，后者在本周的调整中首当其冲。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.<blockquote>标普500本周收盘时较 2021 年高点下跌 3.5%，略低于该指数 9 月份的跌幅，当时每个人都预测调整从未到来。这次抛售看起来有更多的腿。对估值和即将到来的财报季的普遍担忧已经一去不复返了，取而代之的是新的 Covid 变种和美联储紧缩周期的开始。</blockquote> Omicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.<blockquote>奥密克戎本身已经够糟糕的了--没有人知道它会对经济造成多大伤害--但随后美联储主席鲍威尔不得不承认，通胀毕竟不是暂时的，缩减通胀的速度可能要快于预期。</blockquote> “He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.<blockquote>“CIBC Private Wealth US 首席投资官戴夫-多纳贝迪安（Dave Donabedian）说：”他如此强烈地依赖这一信息，这告诉你一些战略变化即将到来。</blockquote> The timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.<blockquote>时间有点奇怪。有关在美国发现奥密克戎的头条新闻已经困扰着市场。鲍威尔让事情变得更糟。尽管如此，也许投资者应该问他为什么选择在那一天发表评论，而不是问他的声明本可以更有力。“MKM Partners 首席经济学家迈克尔-达尔达（Michael Darda）说：”想象一下，如果没有变体，演讲会是什么样子。</blockquote> The thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.<blockquote>问题是，鉴于美国经济的实力，鲍威尔采取鹰派立场完全正确。尽管头条新闻大错特错，就业报告依然稳健，失业率降至4.2%，参与率升至61.8%。供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）的非制造业调查达到创纪录的 69.1，而制造业指数也保持在 60 以上。</blockquote> The data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.<blockquote>这些数据非常好，以至于亚特兰大联储对美国第四季度经济增长的 GDPNow 估计最近达到了 9.7%。定于本周五公布的消费者价格指数预计11月份将上涨0.65%。所有这些都表明，经济已经为收紧货币政策做好了准备，即使股市还没有。“达尔达说：”鲍威尔是对的，即使市场有点恐慌。</blockquote> Don’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.<blockquote>如果情况再糟糕一点，也不要感到惊讶。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为美联储对股市的威胁比奥密克戎更大</blockquote> Stock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师表示，股票投资者可能有比新型冠状病毒株的出现更重要的事情需要担心。</blockquote> While they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.<blockquote>虽然他们 “并不那么担心奥密克戎是股市的主要风险因素”，但在美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）暗示可能加速缩减资产购买规模后，策略师们认为其他地方也出现了不利因素。“以迈克尔-威尔逊（Michael Wilson）为首的策略师在给客户的一份报告中写道：”缩减规模正在收紧市场，这将导致估值下降，就像在任何复苏的这个阶段一样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2480f1a0450a30811b2f0b6e1a23b008\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., who&nbsp;singled out a hawkish turn&nbsp;by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan&nbsp;reiterated on Monday&nbsp;that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&amp;P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.<blockquote>这些言论呼应了其他策略师的观点，其中包括摩根大通的策略师，他们指出央行的鹰派转向是其股市前景的主要风险。不过，尽管摩根大通周一重申，其基本情景是股市上涨将持续到明年，但摩根士丹利认为标普500呈走低趋势，估值下降。</blockquote> “Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&amp;P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”<blockquote>“摩根士丹利策略师写道：”由于多种原因，股市正在恢复九个多月前开始的降级进程。他们预测，标普500远期市盈率将下降约 12%，而且 “随着股票投资者在预期长期利率大幅上升的情况下开始要求更高的风险溢价”，跌幅可能会更深。</blockquote> UBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.<blockquote>瑞银全球财富管理策略师周一表示，他们 “预计未来一段时间的波动性将加剧，因为投资者试图根据不充分和参差不齐的数据评估奥密克戎和美联储的风险”。虽然他们建议投资者不要仓促退出风险资产，但以马克·海菲尔为首的策略师表示，货币紧缩可能会给他们的基本情景带来悲观的情况。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-covid-omicron-federal-reserve-51638575944\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-covid-omicron-federal-reserve-51638575944","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138852642","content_text":"Now can we have a correction?\nWe’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.\nThose numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.\nOn Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.\nThe S&P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.\nOmicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.\n“He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.\nThe timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.\nThe thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.\nThe data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.\nDon’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.\nMorgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron\nStock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.\nWhile they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.\n\nThe comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase & Co., who singled out a hawkish turn by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan reiterated on Monday that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.\n“Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”\nUBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6881944,"gmtCreate":1638865036033,"gmtModify":1638865036080,"authorId":3581643164424811,"author":{"id":3581643164424811,"idStr":"3581643164424811","authorId":3581643164424811,"name":"我不是股神我是赌神","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e971ed6e3f7b6495a07f7b9b5007ee5","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":608490579,"type":1,"supId":6871030,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"},{"id":6871030,"gmtCreate":1638799572679,"gmtModify":1638799572713,"authorId":3578544701064972,"author":{"id":3578544701064972,"idStr":"3578544701064972","authorId":3578544701064972,"name":"Joe0319","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b84d55e902f3cdc3167d94be984be1f","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":608490579,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ya","text":"ya","html":"ya"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":608404404,"gmtCreate":1638770351507,"gmtModify":1638770351637,"author":{"id":"3575256032463698","authorId":"3575256032463698","name":"tearach","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/861adeae93387d8335f9550889bafb00","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3575256032463698","idStr":"3575256032463698"},"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608404404","repostId":1138852642,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138852642","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638769615,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1138852642?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-06 13:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138852642","media":"Barrons","summary":"Now can we have a correction?\nWe’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the ye","content":"Now can we have a correction?<blockquote>现在我们可以更正一下了吗？</blockquote> We’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&amp;P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.<blockquote>我们本希望能有更好的结果，比如在年底融化。但是，由于发现了 Covid-19 的奥密克戎变种，股市在黑色星期五暴跌后，上周股市被重创，但这似乎不太可能。标普500指数本周收盘下跌 1.2%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 319.26 点，跌幅 0.9%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.6%。小盘股罗素 2000 指数本周下跌 3.9%，周三收于回调区域。</blockquote> Those numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&amp;P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.<blockquote>这些数字未能反映本周的波动有多大。在周一小幅反弹后，道指周二暴跌652.22点。周三，它在早盘交易中反弹，然后回吐了这些涨幅，然后是一些涨幅，收盘下跌 461.68 点，标普500只有包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）在内的七只股票成功收高。周四，道琼斯指数创下 3 月份以来的最大涨幅，但苹果下跌 0.6%，此前有报道称，该公司正在让供应商为不温不火的 iPhone 需求做好准备。</blockquote> On Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.<blockquote>周五，纳斯达克遭受重创，包括 Adobe (ADBE)、特斯拉 (TSLA) 和英伟达 (NVDA) 在内的大型昂贵成长型股票终于陷入抛售。“Canaccord Genuity 分析师马丁-罗伯格（Martin Roberge）指出：”鉴于许多'成长型'股票的估值过高，后者在本周的调整中首当其冲。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.<blockquote>标普500本周收盘时较 2021 年高点下跌 3.5%，略低于该指数 9 月份的跌幅，当时每个人都预测调整从未到来。这次抛售看起来有更多的腿。对估值和即将到来的财报季的普遍担忧已经一去不复返了，取而代之的是新的 Covid 变种和美联储紧缩周期的开始。</blockquote> Omicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.<blockquote>奥密克戎本身已经够糟糕的了--没有人知道它会对经济造成多大伤害--但随后美联储主席鲍威尔不得不承认，通胀毕竟不是暂时的，缩减通胀的速度可能要快于预期。</blockquote> “He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.<blockquote>“CIBC Private Wealth US 首席投资官戴夫-多纳贝迪安（Dave Donabedian）说：”他如此强烈地依赖这一信息，这告诉你一些战略变化即将到来。</blockquote> The timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.<blockquote>时间有点奇怪。有关在美国发现奥密克戎的头条新闻已经困扰着市场。鲍威尔让事情变得更糟。尽管如此，也许投资者应该问他为什么选择在那一天发表评论，而不是问他的声明本可以更有力。“MKM Partners 首席经济学家迈克尔-达尔达（Michael Darda）说：”想象一下，如果没有变体，演讲会是什么样子。</blockquote> The thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.<blockquote>问题是，鉴于美国经济的实力，鲍威尔采取鹰派立场完全正确。尽管头条新闻大错特错，就业报告依然稳健，失业率降至4.2%，参与率升至61.8%。供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）的非制造业调查达到创纪录的 69.1，而制造业指数也保持在 60 以上。</blockquote> The data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.<blockquote>这些数据非常好，以至于亚特兰大联储对美国第四季度经济增长的 GDPNow 估计最近达到了 9.7%。定于本周五公布的消费者价格指数预计11月份将上涨0.65%。所有这些都表明，经济已经为收紧货币政策做好了准备，即使股市还没有。“达尔达说：”鲍威尔是对的，即使市场有点恐慌。</blockquote> Don’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.<blockquote>如果情况再糟糕一点，也不要感到惊讶。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为美联储对股市的威胁比奥密克戎更大</blockquote> Stock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师表示，股票投资者可能有比新型冠状病毒株的出现更重要的事情需要担心。</blockquote> While they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.<blockquote>虽然他们 “并不那么担心奥密克戎是股市的主要风险因素”，但在美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）暗示可能加速缩减资产购买规模后，策略师们认为其他地方也出现了不利因素。“以迈克尔-威尔逊（Michael Wilson）为首的策略师在给客户的一份报告中写道：”缩减规模正在收紧市场，这将导致估值下降，就像在任何复苏的这个阶段一样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2480f1a0450a30811b2f0b6e1a23b008\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., who&nbsp;singled out a hawkish turn&nbsp;by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan&nbsp;reiterated on Monday&nbsp;that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&amp;P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.<blockquote>这些言论呼应了其他策略师的观点，其中包括摩根大通的策略师，他们指出央行的鹰派转向是其股市前景的主要风险。不过，尽管摩根大通周一重申，其基本情景是股市上涨将持续到明年，但摩根士丹利认为标普500呈走低趋势，估值下降。</blockquote> “Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&amp;P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”<blockquote>“摩根士丹利策略师写道：”由于多种原因，股市正在恢复九个多月前开始的降级进程。他们预测，标普500远期市盈率将下降约 12%，而且 “随着股票投资者在预期长期利率大幅上升的情况下开始要求更高的风险溢价”，跌幅可能会更深。</blockquote> UBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.<blockquote>瑞银全球财富管理策略师周一表示，他们 “预计未来一段时间的波动性将加剧，因为投资者试图根据不充分和参差不齐的数据评估奥密克戎和美联储的风险”。虽然他们建议投资者不要仓促退出风险资产，但以马克·海菲尔为首的策略师表示，货币紧缩可能会给他们的基本情景带来悲观的情况。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-12-06 13:46\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nNow can we have a correction?<blockquote>现在我们可以更正一下了吗？</blockquote> We’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&amp;P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.<blockquote>我们本希望能有更好的结果，比如在年底融化。但是，由于发现了 Covid-19 的奥密克戎变种，股市在黑色星期五暴跌后，上周股市被重创，但这似乎不太可能。标普500指数本周收盘下跌 1.2%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 319.26 点，跌幅 0.9%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.6%。小盘股罗素 2000 指数本周下跌 3.9%，周三收于回调区域。</blockquote> Those numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&amp;P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.<blockquote>这些数字未能反映本周的波动有多大。在周一小幅反弹后，道指周二暴跌652.22点。周三，它在早盘交易中反弹，然后回吐了这些涨幅，然后是一些涨幅，收盘下跌 461.68 点，标普500只有包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）在内的七只股票成功收高。周四，道琼斯指数创下 3 月份以来的最大涨幅，但苹果下跌 0.6%，此前有报道称，该公司正在让供应商为不温不火的 iPhone 需求做好准备。</blockquote> On Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.<blockquote>周五，纳斯达克遭受重创，包括 Adobe (ADBE)、特斯拉 (TSLA) 和英伟达 (NVDA) 在内的大型昂贵成长型股票终于陷入抛售。“Canaccord Genuity 分析师马丁-罗伯格（Martin Roberge）指出：”鉴于许多'成长型'股票的估值过高，后者在本周的调整中首当其冲。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.<blockquote>标普500本周收盘时较 2021 年高点下跌 3.5%，略低于该指数 9 月份的跌幅，当时每个人都预测调整从未到来。这次抛售看起来有更多的腿。对估值和即将到来的财报季的普遍担忧已经一去不复返了，取而代之的是新的 Covid 变种和美联储紧缩周期的开始。</blockquote> Omicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.<blockquote>奥密克戎本身已经够糟糕的了--没有人知道它会对经济造成多大伤害--但随后美联储主席鲍威尔不得不承认，通胀毕竟不是暂时的，缩减通胀的速度可能要快于预期。</blockquote> “He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.<blockquote>“CIBC Private Wealth US 首席投资官戴夫-多纳贝迪安（Dave Donabedian）说：”他如此强烈地依赖这一信息，这告诉你一些战略变化即将到来。</blockquote> The timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.<blockquote>时间有点奇怪。有关在美国发现奥密克戎的头条新闻已经困扰着市场。鲍威尔让事情变得更糟。尽管如此，也许投资者应该问他为什么选择在那一天发表评论，而不是问他的声明本可以更有力。“MKM Partners 首席经济学家迈克尔-达尔达（Michael Darda）说：”想象一下，如果没有变体，演讲会是什么样子。</blockquote> The thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.<blockquote>问题是，鉴于美国经济的实力，鲍威尔采取鹰派立场完全正确。尽管头条新闻大错特错，就业报告依然稳健，失业率降至4.2%，参与率升至61.8%。供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）的非制造业调查达到创纪录的 69.1，而制造业指数也保持在 60 以上。</blockquote> The data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.<blockquote>这些数据非常好，以至于亚特兰大联储对美国第四季度经济增长的 GDPNow 估计最近达到了 9.7%。定于本周五公布的消费者价格指数预计11月份将上涨0.65%。所有这些都表明，经济已经为收紧货币政策做好了准备，即使股市还没有。“达尔达说：”鲍威尔是对的，即使市场有点恐慌。</blockquote> Don’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.<blockquote>如果情况再糟糕一点，也不要感到惊讶。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为美联储对股市的威胁比奥密克戎更大</blockquote> Stock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师表示，股票投资者可能有比新型冠状病毒株的出现更重要的事情需要担心。</blockquote> While they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.<blockquote>虽然他们 “并不那么担心奥密克戎是股市的主要风险因素”，但在美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）暗示可能加速缩减资产购买规模后，策略师们认为其他地方也出现了不利因素。“以迈克尔-威尔逊（Michael Wilson）为首的策略师在给客户的一份报告中写道：”缩减规模正在收紧市场，这将导致估值下降，就像在任何复苏的这个阶段一样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2480f1a0450a30811b2f0b6e1a23b008\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., who&nbsp;singled out a hawkish turn&nbsp;by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan&nbsp;reiterated on Monday&nbsp;that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&amp;P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.<blockquote>这些言论呼应了其他策略师的观点，其中包括摩根大通的策略师，他们指出央行的鹰派转向是其股市前景的主要风险。不过，尽管摩根大通周一重申，其基本情景是股市上涨将持续到明年，但摩根士丹利认为标普500呈走低趋势，估值下降。</blockquote> “Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&amp;P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”<blockquote>“摩根士丹利策略师写道：”由于多种原因，股市正在恢复九个多月前开始的降级进程。他们预测，标普500远期市盈率将下降约 12%，而且 “随着股票投资者在预期长期利率大幅上升的情况下开始要求更高的风险溢价”，跌幅可能会更深。</blockquote> UBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.<blockquote>瑞银全球财富管理策略师周一表示，他们 “预计未来一段时间的波动性将加剧，因为投资者试图根据不充分和参差不齐的数据评估奥密克戎和美联储的风险”。虽然他们建议投资者不要仓促退出风险资产，但以马克·海菲尔为首的策略师表示，货币紧缩可能会给他们的基本情景带来悲观的情况。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-covid-omicron-federal-reserve-51638575944\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-covid-omicron-federal-reserve-51638575944","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138852642","content_text":"Now can we have a correction?\nWe’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.\nThose numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.\nOn Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.\nThe S&P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.\nOmicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.\n“He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.\nThe timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.\nThe thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.\nThe data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.\nDon’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.\nMorgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron\nStock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.\nWhile they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.\n\nThe comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase & Co., who singled out a hawkish turn by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan reiterated on Monday that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.\n“Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”\nUBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":608402822,"gmtCreate":1638769868605,"gmtModify":1638769868673,"author":{"id":"4097453463145590","authorId":"4097453463145590","name":"Projme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0af029fd435ad08e3c35f4a579ab4977","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"4097453463145590","idStr":"4097453463145590"},"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608402822","repostId":1138852642,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138852642","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638769615,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1138852642?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-06 13:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138852642","media":"Barrons","summary":"Now can we have a correction?\nWe’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the ye","content":"Now can we have a correction?<blockquote>现在我们可以更正一下了吗？</blockquote> We’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&amp;P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.<blockquote>我们本希望能有更好的结果，比如在年底融化。但是，由于发现了 Covid-19 的奥密克戎变种，股市在黑色星期五暴跌后，上周股市被重创，但这似乎不太可能。标普500指数本周收盘下跌 1.2%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 319.26 点，跌幅 0.9%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.6%。小盘股罗素 2000 指数本周下跌 3.9%，周三收于回调区域。</blockquote> Those numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&amp;P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.<blockquote>这些数字未能反映本周的波动有多大。在周一小幅反弹后，道指周二暴跌652.22点。周三，它在早盘交易中反弹，然后回吐了这些涨幅，然后是一些涨幅，收盘下跌 461.68 点，标普500只有包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）在内的七只股票成功收高。周四，道琼斯指数创下 3 月份以来的最大涨幅，但苹果下跌 0.6%，此前有报道称，该公司正在让供应商为不温不火的 iPhone 需求做好准备。</blockquote> On Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.<blockquote>周五，纳斯达克遭受重创，包括 Adobe (ADBE)、特斯拉 (TSLA) 和英伟达 (NVDA) 在内的大型昂贵成长型股票终于陷入抛售。“Canaccord Genuity 分析师马丁-罗伯格（Martin Roberge）指出：”鉴于许多'成长型'股票的估值过高，后者在本周的调整中首当其冲。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.<blockquote>标普500本周收盘时较 2021 年高点下跌 3.5%，略低于该指数 9 月份的跌幅，当时每个人都预测调整从未到来。这次抛售看起来有更多的腿。对估值和即将到来的财报季的普遍担忧已经一去不复返了，取而代之的是新的 Covid 变种和美联储紧缩周期的开始。</blockquote> Omicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.<blockquote>奥密克戎本身已经够糟糕的了--没有人知道它会对经济造成多大伤害--但随后美联储主席鲍威尔不得不承认，通胀毕竟不是暂时的，缩减通胀的速度可能要快于预期。</blockquote> “He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.<blockquote>“CIBC Private Wealth US 首席投资官戴夫-多纳贝迪安（Dave Donabedian）说：”他如此强烈地依赖这一信息，这告诉你一些战略变化即将到来。</blockquote> The timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.<blockquote>时间有点奇怪。有关在美国发现奥密克戎的头条新闻已经困扰着市场。鲍威尔让事情变得更糟。尽管如此，也许投资者应该问他为什么选择在那一天发表评论，而不是问他的声明本可以更有力。“MKM Partners 首席经济学家迈克尔-达尔达（Michael Darda）说：”想象一下，如果没有变体，演讲会是什么样子。</blockquote> The thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.<blockquote>问题是，鉴于美国经济的实力，鲍威尔采取鹰派立场完全正确。尽管头条新闻大错特错，就业报告依然稳健，失业率降至4.2%，参与率升至61.8%。供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）的非制造业调查达到创纪录的 69.1，而制造业指数也保持在 60 以上。</blockquote> The data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.<blockquote>这些数据非常好，以至于亚特兰大联储对美国第四季度经济增长的 GDPNow 估计最近达到了 9.7%。定于本周五公布的消费者价格指数预计11月份将上涨0.65%。所有这些都表明，经济已经为收紧货币政策做好了准备，即使股市还没有。“达尔达说：”鲍威尔是对的，即使市场有点恐慌。</blockquote> Don’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.<blockquote>如果情况再糟糕一点，也不要感到惊讶。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为美联储对股市的威胁比奥密克戎更大</blockquote> Stock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师表示，股票投资者可能有比新型冠状病毒株的出现更重要的事情需要担心。</blockquote> While they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.<blockquote>虽然他们 “并不那么担心奥密克戎是股市的主要风险因素”，但在美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）暗示可能加速缩减资产购买规模后，策略师们认为其他地方也出现了不利因素。“以迈克尔-威尔逊（Michael Wilson）为首的策略师在给客户的一份报告中写道：”缩减规模正在收紧市场，这将导致估值下降，就像在任何复苏的这个阶段一样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2480f1a0450a30811b2f0b6e1a23b008\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., who&nbsp;singled out a hawkish turn&nbsp;by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan&nbsp;reiterated on Monday&nbsp;that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&amp;P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.<blockquote>这些言论呼应了其他策略师的观点，其中包括摩根大通的策略师，他们指出央行的鹰派转向是其股市前景的主要风险。不过，尽管摩根大通周一重申，其基本情景是股市上涨将持续到明年，但摩根士丹利认为标普500呈走低趋势，估值下降。</blockquote> “Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&amp;P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”<blockquote>“摩根士丹利策略师写道：”由于多种原因，股市正在恢复九个多月前开始的降级进程。他们预测，标普500远期市盈率将下降约 12%，而且 “随着股票投资者在预期长期利率大幅上升的情况下开始要求更高的风险溢价”，跌幅可能会更深。</blockquote> UBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.<blockquote>瑞银全球财富管理策略师周一表示，他们 “预计未来一段时间的波动性将加剧，因为投资者试图根据不充分和参差不齐的数据评估奥密克戎和美联储的风险”。虽然他们建议投资者不要仓促退出风险资产，但以马克·海菲尔为首的策略师表示，货币紧缩可能会给他们的基本情景带来悲观的情况。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-12-06 13:46\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nNow can we have a correction?<blockquote>现在我们可以更正一下了吗？</blockquote> We’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&amp;P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.<blockquote>我们本希望能有更好的结果，比如在年底融化。但是，由于发现了 Covid-19 的奥密克戎变种，股市在黑色星期五暴跌后，上周股市被重创，但这似乎不太可能。标普500指数本周收盘下跌 1.2%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 319.26 点，跌幅 0.9%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.6%。小盘股罗素 2000 指数本周下跌 3.9%，周三收于回调区域。</blockquote> Those numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&amp;P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.<blockquote>这些数字未能反映本周的波动有多大。在周一小幅反弹后，道指周二暴跌652.22点。周三，它在早盘交易中反弹，然后回吐了这些涨幅，然后是一些涨幅，收盘下跌 461.68 点，标普500只有包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）在内的七只股票成功收高。周四，道琼斯指数创下 3 月份以来的最大涨幅，但苹果下跌 0.6%，此前有报道称，该公司正在让供应商为不温不火的 iPhone 需求做好准备。</blockquote> On Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.<blockquote>周五，纳斯达克遭受重创，包括 Adobe (ADBE)、特斯拉 (TSLA) 和英伟达 (NVDA) 在内的大型昂贵成长型股票终于陷入抛售。“Canaccord Genuity 分析师马丁-罗伯格（Martin Roberge）指出：”鉴于许多'成长型'股票的估值过高，后者在本周的调整中首当其冲。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.<blockquote>标普500本周收盘时较 2021 年高点下跌 3.5%，略低于该指数 9 月份的跌幅，当时每个人都预测调整从未到来。这次抛售看起来有更多的腿。对估值和即将到来的财报季的普遍担忧已经一去不复返了，取而代之的是新的 Covid 变种和美联储紧缩周期的开始。</blockquote> Omicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.<blockquote>奥密克戎本身已经够糟糕的了--没有人知道它会对经济造成多大伤害--但随后美联储主席鲍威尔不得不承认，通胀毕竟不是暂时的，缩减通胀的速度可能要快于预期。</blockquote> “He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.<blockquote>“CIBC Private Wealth US 首席投资官戴夫-多纳贝迪安（Dave Donabedian）说：”他如此强烈地依赖这一信息，这告诉你一些战略变化即将到来。</blockquote> The timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.<blockquote>时间有点奇怪。有关在美国发现奥密克戎的头条新闻已经困扰着市场。鲍威尔让事情变得更糟。尽管如此，也许投资者应该问他为什么选择在那一天发表评论，而不是问他的声明本可以更有力。“MKM Partners 首席经济学家迈克尔-达尔达（Michael Darda）说：”想象一下，如果没有变体，演讲会是什么样子。</blockquote> The thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.<blockquote>问题是，鉴于美国经济的实力，鲍威尔采取鹰派立场完全正确。尽管头条新闻大错特错，就业报告依然稳健，失业率降至4.2%，参与率升至61.8%。供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）的非制造业调查达到创纪录的 69.1，而制造业指数也保持在 60 以上。</blockquote> The data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.<blockquote>这些数据非常好，以至于亚特兰大联储对美国第四季度经济增长的 GDPNow 估计最近达到了 9.7%。定于本周五公布的消费者价格指数预计11月份将上涨0.65%。所有这些都表明，经济已经为收紧货币政策做好了准备，即使股市还没有。“达尔达说：”鲍威尔是对的，即使市场有点恐慌。</blockquote> Don’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.<blockquote>如果情况再糟糕一点，也不要感到惊讶。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为美联储对股市的威胁比奥密克戎更大</blockquote> Stock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师表示，股票投资者可能有比新型冠状病毒株的出现更重要的事情需要担心。</blockquote> While they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.<blockquote>虽然他们 “并不那么担心奥密克戎是股市的主要风险因素”，但在美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）暗示可能加速缩减资产购买规模后，策略师们认为其他地方也出现了不利因素。“以迈克尔-威尔逊（Michael Wilson）为首的策略师在给客户的一份报告中写道：”缩减规模正在收紧市场，这将导致估值下降，就像在任何复苏的这个阶段一样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2480f1a0450a30811b2f0b6e1a23b008\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., who&nbsp;singled out a hawkish turn&nbsp;by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan&nbsp;reiterated on Monday&nbsp;that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&amp;P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.<blockquote>这些言论呼应了其他策略师的观点，其中包括摩根大通的策略师，他们指出央行的鹰派转向是其股市前景的主要风险。不过，尽管摩根大通周一重申，其基本情景是股市上涨将持续到明年，但摩根士丹利认为标普500呈走低趋势，估值下降。</blockquote> “Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&amp;P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”<blockquote>“摩根士丹利策略师写道：”由于多种原因，股市正在恢复九个多月前开始的降级进程。他们预测，标普500远期市盈率将下降约 12%，而且 “随着股票投资者在预期长期利率大幅上升的情况下开始要求更高的风险溢价”，跌幅可能会更深。</blockquote> UBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.<blockquote>瑞银全球财富管理策略师周一表示，他们 “预计未来一段时间的波动性将加剧，因为投资者试图根据不充分和参差不齐的数据评估奥密克戎和美联储的风险”。虽然他们建议投资者不要仓促退出风险资产，但以马克·海菲尔为首的策略师表示，货币紧缩可能会给他们的基本情景带来悲观的情况。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-covid-omicron-federal-reserve-51638575944\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-covid-omicron-federal-reserve-51638575944","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138852642","content_text":"Now can we have a correction?\nWe’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.\nThose numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.\nOn Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.\nThe S&P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.\nOmicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.\n“He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.\nThe timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.\nThe thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.\nThe data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.\nDon’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.\nMorgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron\nStock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.\nWhile they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.\n\nThe comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase & Co., who singled out a hawkish turn by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan reiterated on Monday that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.\n“Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”\nUBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6865723,"gmtCreate":1638770356676,"gmtModify":1638770356709,"authorId":3575256032463698,"author":{"id":3575256032463698,"idStr":"3575256032463698","authorId":3575256032463698,"name":"tearach","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/861adeae93387d8335f9550889bafb00","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":608402822,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":608402332,"gmtCreate":1638769858246,"gmtModify":1638769858379,"author":{"id":"4090580354975560","authorId":"4090580354975560","name":"FionBai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b95d850dba878781b5dde71a539605b6","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"4090580354975560","idStr":"4090580354975560"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608402332","repostId":1138852642,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138852642","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638769615,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1138852642?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-06 13:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138852642","media":"Barrons","summary":"Now can we have a correction?\nWe’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the ye","content":"Now can we have a correction?<blockquote>现在我们可以更正一下了吗？</blockquote> We’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&amp;P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.<blockquote>我们本希望能有更好的结果，比如在年底融化。但是，由于发现了 Covid-19 的奥密克戎变种，股市在黑色星期五暴跌后，上周股市被重创，但这似乎不太可能。标普500指数本周收盘下跌 1.2%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 319.26 点，跌幅 0.9%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.6%。小盘股罗素 2000 指数本周下跌 3.9%，周三收于回调区域。</blockquote> Those numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&amp;P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.<blockquote>这些数字未能反映本周的波动有多大。在周一小幅反弹后，道指周二暴跌652.22点。周三，它在早盘交易中反弹，然后回吐了这些涨幅，然后是一些涨幅，收盘下跌 461.68 点，标普500只有包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）在内的七只股票成功收高。周四，道琼斯指数创下 3 月份以来的最大涨幅，但苹果下跌 0.6%，此前有报道称，该公司正在让供应商为不温不火的 iPhone 需求做好准备。</blockquote> On Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.<blockquote>周五，纳斯达克遭受重创，包括 Adobe (ADBE)、特斯拉 (TSLA) 和英伟达 (NVDA) 在内的大型昂贵成长型股票终于陷入抛售。“Canaccord Genuity 分析师马丁-罗伯格（Martin Roberge）指出：”鉴于许多'成长型'股票的估值过高，后者在本周的调整中首当其冲。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.<blockquote>标普500本周收盘时较 2021 年高点下跌 3.5%，略低于该指数 9 月份的跌幅，当时每个人都预测调整从未到来。这次抛售看起来有更多的腿。对估值和即将到来的财报季的普遍担忧已经一去不复返了，取而代之的是新的 Covid 变种和美联储紧缩周期的开始。</blockquote> Omicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.<blockquote>奥密克戎本身已经够糟糕的了--没有人知道它会对经济造成多大伤害--但随后美联储主席鲍威尔不得不承认，通胀毕竟不是暂时的，缩减通胀的速度可能要快于预期。</blockquote> “He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.<blockquote>“CIBC Private Wealth US 首席投资官戴夫-多纳贝迪安（Dave Donabedian）说：”他如此强烈地依赖这一信息，这告诉你一些战略变化即将到来。</blockquote> The timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.<blockquote>时间有点奇怪。有关在美国发现奥密克戎的头条新闻已经困扰着市场。鲍威尔让事情变得更糟。尽管如此，也许投资者应该问他为什么选择在那一天发表评论，而不是问他的声明本可以更有力。“MKM Partners 首席经济学家迈克尔-达尔达（Michael Darda）说：”想象一下，如果没有变体，演讲会是什么样子。</blockquote> The thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.<blockquote>问题是，鉴于美国经济的实力，鲍威尔采取鹰派立场完全正确。尽管头条新闻大错特错，就业报告依然稳健，失业率降至4.2%，参与率升至61.8%。供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）的非制造业调查达到创纪录的 69.1，而制造业指数也保持在 60 以上。</blockquote> The data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.<blockquote>这些数据非常好，以至于亚特兰大联储对美国第四季度经济增长的 GDPNow 估计最近达到了 9.7%。定于本周五公布的消费者价格指数预计11月份将上涨0.65%。所有这些都表明，经济已经为收紧货币政策做好了准备，即使股市还没有。“达尔达说：”鲍威尔是对的，即使市场有点恐慌。</blockquote> Don’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.<blockquote>如果情况再糟糕一点，也不要感到惊讶。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为美联储对股市的威胁比奥密克戎更大</blockquote> Stock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师表示，股票投资者可能有比新型冠状病毒株的出现更重要的事情需要担心。</blockquote> While they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.<blockquote>虽然他们 “并不那么担心奥密克戎是股市的主要风险因素”，但在美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）暗示可能加速缩减资产购买规模后，策略师们认为其他地方也出现了不利因素。“以迈克尔-威尔逊（Michael Wilson）为首的策略师在给客户的一份报告中写道：”缩减规模正在收紧市场，这将导致估值下降，就像在任何复苏的这个阶段一样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2480f1a0450a30811b2f0b6e1a23b008\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., who&nbsp;singled out a hawkish turn&nbsp;by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan&nbsp;reiterated on Monday&nbsp;that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&amp;P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.<blockquote>这些言论呼应了其他策略师的观点，其中包括摩根大通的策略师，他们指出央行的鹰派转向是其股市前景的主要风险。不过，尽管摩根大通周一重申，其基本情景是股市上涨将持续到明年，但摩根士丹利认为标普500呈走低趋势，估值下降。</blockquote> “Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&amp;P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”<blockquote>“摩根士丹利策略师写道：”由于多种原因，股市正在恢复九个多月前开始的降级进程。他们预测，标普500远期市盈率将下降约 12%，而且 “随着股票投资者在预期长期利率大幅上升的情况下开始要求更高的风险溢价”，跌幅可能会更深。</blockquote> UBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.<blockquote>瑞银全球财富管理策略师周一表示，他们 “预计未来一段时间的波动性将加剧，因为投资者试图根据不充分和参差不齐的数据评估奥密克戎和美联储的风险”。虽然他们建议投资者不要仓促退出风险资产，但以马克·海菲尔为首的策略师表示，货币紧缩可能会给他们的基本情景带来悲观的情况。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>还有什么比新冠疫情更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-12-06 13:46\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nNow can we have a correction?<blockquote>现在我们可以更正一下了吗？</blockquote> We’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&amp;P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.<blockquote>我们本希望能有更好的结果，比如在年底融化。但是，由于发现了 Covid-19 的奥密克戎变种，股市在黑色星期五暴跌后，上周股市被重创，但这似乎不太可能。标普500指数本周收盘下跌 1.2%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 319.26 点，跌幅 0.9%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.6%。小盘股罗素 2000 指数本周下跌 3.9%，周三收于回调区域。</blockquote> Those numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&amp;P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.<blockquote>这些数字未能反映本周的波动有多大。在周一小幅反弹后，道指周二暴跌652.22点。周三，它在早盘交易中反弹，然后回吐了这些涨幅，然后是一些涨幅，收盘下跌 461.68 点，标普500只有包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）在内的七只股票成功收高。周四，道琼斯指数创下 3 月份以来的最大涨幅，但苹果下跌 0.6%，此前有报道称，该公司正在让供应商为不温不火的 iPhone 需求做好准备。</blockquote> On Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.<blockquote>周五，纳斯达克遭受重创，包括 Adobe (ADBE)、特斯拉 (TSLA) 和英伟达 (NVDA) 在内的大型昂贵成长型股票终于陷入抛售。“Canaccord Genuity 分析师马丁-罗伯格（Martin Roberge）指出：”鉴于许多'成长型'股票的估值过高，后者在本周的调整中首当其冲。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.<blockquote>标普500本周收盘时较 2021 年高点下跌 3.5%，略低于该指数 9 月份的跌幅，当时每个人都预测调整从未到来。这次抛售看起来有更多的腿。对估值和即将到来的财报季的普遍担忧已经一去不复返了，取而代之的是新的 Covid 变种和美联储紧缩周期的开始。</blockquote> Omicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.<blockquote>奥密克戎本身已经够糟糕的了--没有人知道它会对经济造成多大伤害--但随后美联储主席鲍威尔不得不承认，通胀毕竟不是暂时的，缩减通胀的速度可能要快于预期。</blockquote> “He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.<blockquote>“CIBC Private Wealth US 首席投资官戴夫-多纳贝迪安（Dave Donabedian）说：”他如此强烈地依赖这一信息，这告诉你一些战略变化即将到来。</blockquote> The timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.<blockquote>时间有点奇怪。有关在美国发现奥密克戎的头条新闻已经困扰着市场。鲍威尔让事情变得更糟。尽管如此，也许投资者应该问他为什么选择在那一天发表评论，而不是问他的声明本可以更有力。“MKM Partners 首席经济学家迈克尔-达尔达（Michael Darda）说：”想象一下，如果没有变体，演讲会是什么样子。</blockquote> The thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.<blockquote>问题是，鉴于美国经济的实力，鲍威尔采取鹰派立场完全正确。尽管头条新闻大错特错，就业报告依然稳健，失业率降至4.2%，参与率升至61.8%。供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）的非制造业调查达到创纪录的 69.1，而制造业指数也保持在 60 以上。</blockquote> The data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.<blockquote>这些数据非常好，以至于亚特兰大联储对美国第四季度经济增长的 GDPNow 估计最近达到了 9.7%。定于本周五公布的消费者价格指数预计11月份将上涨0.65%。所有这些都表明，经济已经为收紧货币政策做好了准备，即使股市还没有。“达尔达说：”鲍威尔是对的，即使市场有点恐慌。</blockquote> Don’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.<blockquote>如果情况再糟糕一点，也不要感到惊讶。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为美联储对股市的威胁比奥密克戎更大</blockquote> Stock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师表示，股票投资者可能有比新型冠状病毒株的出现更重要的事情需要担心。</blockquote> While they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.<blockquote>虽然他们 “并不那么担心奥密克戎是股市的主要风险因素”，但在美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）暗示可能加速缩减资产购买规模后，策略师们认为其他地方也出现了不利因素。“以迈克尔-威尔逊（Michael Wilson）为首的策略师在给客户的一份报告中写道：”缩减规模正在收紧市场，这将导致估值下降，就像在任何复苏的这个阶段一样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2480f1a0450a30811b2f0b6e1a23b008\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., who&nbsp;singled out a hawkish turn&nbsp;by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan&nbsp;reiterated on Monday&nbsp;that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&amp;P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.<blockquote>这些言论呼应了其他策略师的观点，其中包括摩根大通的策略师，他们指出央行的鹰派转向是其股市前景的主要风险。不过，尽管摩根大通周一重申，其基本情景是股市上涨将持续到明年，但摩根士丹利认为标普500呈走低趋势，估值下降。</blockquote> “Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&amp;P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”<blockquote>“摩根士丹利策略师写道：”由于多种原因，股市正在恢复九个多月前开始的降级进程。他们预测，标普500远期市盈率将下降约 12%，而且 “随着股票投资者在预期长期利率大幅上升的情况下开始要求更高的风险溢价”，跌幅可能会更深。</blockquote> UBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.<blockquote>瑞银全球财富管理策略师周一表示，他们 “预计未来一段时间的波动性将加剧，因为投资者试图根据不充分和参差不齐的数据评估奥密克戎和美联储的风险”。虽然他们建议投资者不要仓促退出风险资产，但以马克·海菲尔为首的策略师表示，货币紧缩可能会给他们的基本情景带来悲观的情况。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-covid-omicron-federal-reserve-51638575944\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-covid-omicron-federal-reserve-51638575944","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138852642","content_text":"Now can we have a correction?\nWe’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.\nThose numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.\nOn Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.\nThe S&P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.\nOmicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.\n“He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.\nThe timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.\nThe thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.\nThe data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.\nDon’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.\nMorgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron\nStock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.\nWhile they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.\n\nThe comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase & Co., who singled out a hawkish turn by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan reiterated on Monday that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.\n“Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”\nUBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6865707,"gmtCreate":1638770233886,"gmtModify":1638770233918,"authorId":4088678216292640,"author":{"id":4088678216292640,"idStr":"4088678216292640","authorId":4088678216292640,"name":"Annie_ann29","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74b75bf973f051fd1f70b054cc66a45c","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":608402332,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Like","text":"Like","html":"Like"},{"id":6865623,"gmtCreate":1638769874556,"gmtModify":1638769874590,"authorId":4097453463145590,"author":{"id":4097453463145590,"idStr":"4097453463145590","authorId":4097453463145590,"name":"Projme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0af029fd435ad08e3c35f4a579ab4977","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":608402332,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":209,"commentSize":19,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":5,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}