Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?

MarketWatch2021-07-27

How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES Nasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its ...

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Jasontay81
·2021-07-27
Yeah, please like!
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2
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- WBT13:
  done
  2021-07-28
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Daffn3
·2021-07-27
[Smile]
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1
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CaptainMiya
·2021-07-27
[Strong]
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7
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ERICGAN
·2021-07-27
Yeah
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siewling19
·2021-07-27
Wow
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- CaptainMiya:
  [Strong]
  2021-07-27
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- Ohyzzz:
  Like
  2021-07-27
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Khoogl
·2021-07-27
Great
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1
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- 4573b69e:
  Yeah
  2021-07-27
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437405Peter
·2021-07-27
Great platform tiger
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4
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- 437405Peter:
  Great!
  2021-07-27
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437405Peter
·2021-07-27
Great!
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1
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Heng8818
·2021-07-27
Never
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点赞
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Alvinlimsg
·2021-07-27
Hi
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- Lewis1983:
  Hi
  2021-07-28
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MattMartin
·2021-07-27
Wowowow comment and like!!
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3
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- 97fca4a:
  Liked
  2021-07-27
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Calvinchin
·2021-07-27
👌🏼 yes
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- Huatcel:
  Hihi
  2021-07-27
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CTLT
·2021-07-27
So can buy now?
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- Calvinchin:
  Ok
  2021-07-27
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JHx
·2021-07-27
Nani
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5
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AntonyGeorge
·2021-07-27
Will need to book ambulance
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- AntonyGeorge:
  yes
  2021-07-27
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DChia
·2021-07-27
Train continues
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- koolgal:
  Chugging along merrily🤑
  2021-07-31
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kareayam
·2021-07-27
Higher and higher[鬼脸]
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- Elysium19:
  💪
  2021-07-27
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JT888
·2021-07-27
👍
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- 羊坑:
  not possible within this year
  2021-07-27
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Do I hear 30,000?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-27 21:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-15-000-is-near-do-i-hear-30-000-11627374665?mod=home-page>MarketWatch</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nHow the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nNasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-15-000-is-near-do-i-hear-30-000-11627374665?mod=home-page\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".DJI","symbol_name":"道琼斯","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-15-000-is-near-do-i-hear-30-000-11627374665?mod=home-page","article_id":"1138487254","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138487254","pubTimestamp":1627391824,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1603348471595","name":"MarketWatch"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAG","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"marketwatch.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"translate_title":"纳斯达克15000就在附近。我听到3万吗？","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9},"content_text":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nNasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.\nWelcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.\nTo be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.\nA related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.\nHere’s the catch\nBefore you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.\nFor example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.\nSo the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.\n\nWhat is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the market’s current extreme overvaluation into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).\nBased on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:\n\nOverall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation\nExpected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per Cleveland Fed model)\nNasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)\n\nThe net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.\nIn fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.\nThe bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":803047683,"gmtCreate":1627398416842,"gmtModify":1633765365932,"author":{"id":"4089438738591500","authorId":"4089438738591500","name":"Jasontay81","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea8f089bf917f0af5a9c5691aa849a93","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4089438738591500","idStr":"4089438738591500"},"htmlText":"Yeah, please like!","listText":"Yeah, please like!","text":"Yeah, please like!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803047683","repostId":1138487254,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138487254","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627391824,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138487254?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 21:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138487254","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAG","content":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years<blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数如何在10年内超越道琼斯指数</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8474c2fb4a64f693d66e2d4ffd1d7d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Nasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.<blockquote>纳斯达克3万？这并不像你想象的那么牵强。如果该指数继续以过去12个月的速度上涨，它将在短短两年内（2023年7月）达到这一原本难以想象的里程碑。</blockquote> Welcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s&nbsp;extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.<blockquote>欢迎来到最新的室内游戏，其灵感来自纳斯达克复合材料的非凡性能，使其达到了15,000大关的尖端。该指数最近在2020年3月交易价格低于7,000点。</blockquote> To be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，纳斯达克综合指数是人为高的，因为它在冠状病毒大流行初期的人为低水平。但这只能部分解释纳斯达克能以多快的速度达到30,000。相反，如果我们推断纳斯达克过去五年的回报，它只会略微增加其实现这一目标所需的时间——达到3.3年。</blockquote> A related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.<blockquote>一个相关的室内游戏是想象纳斯达克指数需要多长时间才能超越道琼斯工业平均指数。这需要更长的时间，因为当纳斯达克试图超越道琼斯指数时，道琼斯指数本身就会上涨。但是，假设这两个基准各自的五年增长率持续下去，纳斯达克将在9.9年内（即2031年夏季）超过道琼斯指数。</blockquote> Here’s the catch<blockquote>这是个问题</blockquote> Before you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.<blockquote>在您对这些高纳斯达克综合水平的前景过于兴奋之前，您应该知道有一个问题：这些预测在很大程度上取决于您选择推断未来的时间段。并非所有的预测都是乐观的。</blockquote> For example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.<blockquote>例如，不要关注过去一年或五年的时期，而是使用过去21年以上的时期进行推断。这让你回到了互联网泡沫的顶部，就在泡沫破灭之前，纳斯达克综合指数的价值下跌了近80%。假设纳斯达克自2000年3月高点以来的增长率，它将在14年内触及30,000点大关，并且永远不会超过道琼斯指数——因为这些蓝筹股实际上在过去21年多的时间里表现优于纳斯达克。</blockquote> So the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.<blockquote>因此，这些室内游戏的真正意义应该是在你对市场未来的预测中引入现实检验。近年来，股市的表现远好于我们对未来的预期。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b13c6bd176fff9917be367c0d304aa48\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> What is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the&nbsp;market’s current extreme overvaluation&nbsp;into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a&nbsp;database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).<blockquote>什么是现实？答案取决于各种因素，比如你是否考虑到市场目前的极度高估。但如果你只是简单地将过去外推到未来而不考虑估值，你应该尽可能长时间地关注过去。就美国市场而言，数据至少可以追溯到1793年（由圣克拉拉大学利维商学院名誉教授爱德华·麦夸里提供的数据库提供）。</blockquote> Based on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:<blockquote>根据他的数据库，我对纳斯达克未来几年的表现有以下预测：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Overall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation</li> <li>Expected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per&nbsp;Cleveland Fed model)</li> <li>Nasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per&nbsp;data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French&nbsp;on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)</li> </ul> The net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.<blockquote><ul><li>自1793年以来整体市场年化回报率：年化回报率高于通胀6.1%</li><li>未来十年预期通胀率：1.6%（根据克利夫兰联储模型）</li><li>纳斯达克综合指数相对于整体市场的预期回报率：年化负0.1%（根据Dartmouth教授Ken French自1926年以来关于大盘成长板块表现的数据，该板块最接近主导纳斯达克综合指数的股票）</li></ul>最终结果是：未来几年的年化名义回报率为7.6%。这远低于纳斯达克综合指数过去12个月41.8%的回报率，或过去五年23.8%的年化回报率。</blockquote> In fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.<blockquote>事实上，7.6%的年化回报率并不比纳斯达克综合指数自互联网泡沫顶部以来的平均回报率好多少。按照7.6%的年化增长率计算，该指数需要9.7年才能达到30,000点。请记住，假设市场目前的高估影响了股票的未来回报，那么纳斯达克综合指数需要更长的时间才能达到30,000点。</blockquote> The bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.<blockquote>底线？树不会长到天上。在庆祝近年来市场带来的好运的同时，你绝对不应该变得贪婪。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-07-27 21:17\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nHow the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years<blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数如何在10年内超越道琼斯指数</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8474c2fb4a64f693d66e2d4ffd1d7d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Nasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.<blockquote>纳斯达克3万？这并不像你想象的那么牵强。如果该指数继续以过去12个月的速度上涨，它将在短短两年内（2023年7月）达到这一原本难以想象的里程碑。</blockquote> Welcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s&nbsp;extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.<blockquote>欢迎来到最新的室内游戏，其灵感来自纳斯达克复合材料的非凡性能，使其达到了15,000大关的尖端。该指数最近在2020年3月交易价格低于7,000点。</blockquote> To be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，纳斯达克综合指数是人为高的，因为它在冠状病毒大流行初期的人为低水平。但这只能部分解释纳斯达克能以多快的速度达到30,000。相反，如果我们推断纳斯达克过去五年的回报，它只会略微增加其实现这一目标所需的时间——达到3.3年。</blockquote> A related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.<blockquote>一个相关的室内游戏是想象纳斯达克指数需要多长时间才能超越道琼斯工业平均指数。这需要更长的时间，因为当纳斯达克试图超越道琼斯指数时，道琼斯指数本身就会上涨。但是，假设这两个基准各自的五年增长率持续下去，纳斯达克将在9.9年内（即2031年夏季）超过道琼斯指数。</blockquote> Here’s the catch<blockquote>这是个问题</blockquote> Before you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.<blockquote>在您对这些高纳斯达克综合水平的前景过于兴奋之前，您应该知道有一个问题：这些预测在很大程度上取决于您选择推断未来的时间段。并非所有的预测都是乐观的。</blockquote> For example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.<blockquote>例如，不要关注过去一年或五年的时期，而是使用过去21年以上的时期进行推断。这让你回到了互联网泡沫的顶部，就在泡沫破灭之前，纳斯达克综合指数的价值下跌了近80%。假设纳斯达克自2000年3月高点以来的增长率，它将在14年内触及30,000点大关，并且永远不会超过道琼斯指数——因为这些蓝筹股实际上在过去21年多的时间里表现优于纳斯达克。</blockquote> So the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.<blockquote>因此，这些室内游戏的真正意义应该是在你对市场未来的预测中引入现实检验。近年来，股市的表现远好于我们对未来的预期。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b13c6bd176fff9917be367c0d304aa48\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> What is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the&nbsp;market’s current extreme overvaluation&nbsp;into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a&nbsp;database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).<blockquote>什么是现实？答案取决于各种因素，比如你是否考虑到市场目前的极度高估。但如果你只是简单地将过去外推到未来而不考虑估值，你应该尽可能长时间地关注过去。就美国市场而言，数据至少可以追溯到1793年（由圣克拉拉大学利维商学院名誉教授爱德华·麦夸里提供的数据库提供）。</blockquote> Based on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:<blockquote>根据他的数据库，我对纳斯达克未来几年的表现有以下预测：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Overall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation</li> <li>Expected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per&nbsp;Cleveland Fed model)</li> <li>Nasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per&nbsp;data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French&nbsp;on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)</li> </ul> The net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.<blockquote><ul><li>自1793年以来整体市场年化回报率：年化回报率高于通胀6.1%</li><li>未来十年预期通胀率：1.6%（根据克利夫兰联储模型）</li><li>纳斯达克综合指数相对于整体市场的预期回报率：年化负0.1%（根据Dartmouth教授Ken French自1926年以来关于大盘成长板块表现的数据，该板块最接近主导纳斯达克综合指数的股票）</li></ul>最终结果是：未来几年的年化名义回报率为7.6%。这远低于纳斯达克综合指数过去12个月41.8%的回报率，或过去五年23.8%的年化回报率。</blockquote> In fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.<blockquote>事实上，7.6%的年化回报率并不比纳斯达克综合指数自互联网泡沫顶部以来的平均回报率好多少。按照7.6%的年化增长率计算，该指数需要9.7年才能达到30,000点。请记住，假设市场目前的高估影响了股票的未来回报，那么纳斯达克综合指数需要更长的时间才能达到30,000点。</blockquote> The bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.<blockquote>底线？树不会长到天上。在庆祝近年来市场带来的好运的同时，你绝对不应该变得贪婪。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-15-000-is-near-do-i-hear-30-000-11627374665?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-15-000-is-near-do-i-hear-30-000-11627374665?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138487254","content_text":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nNasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.\nWelcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.\nTo be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.\nA related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.\nHere’s the catch\nBefore you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.\nFor example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.\nSo the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.\n\nWhat is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the market’s current extreme overvaluation into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).\nBased on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:\n\nOverall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation\nExpected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per Cleveland Fed model)\nNasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)\n\nThe net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.\nIn fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.\nThe bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5350570,"gmtCreate":1627422650177,"gmtModify":1635220092864,"authorId":3573351657200487,"author":{"id":3573351657200487,"idStr":"3573351657200487","authorId":3573351657200487,"name":"WBT13","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c32eff74d0ce173f7e10df861c0ee416","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":803047683,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"done","text":"done","html":"done"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":803019421,"gmtCreate":1627396171263,"gmtModify":1631889103024,"author":{"id":"3575889967244102","authorId":"3575889967244102","name":"Daffn3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17dacfbb92b1435740ae069588894b04","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3575889967244102","idStr":"3575889967244102"},"htmlText":"[Smile]&nbsp;","listText":"[Smile]&nbsp;","text":"[Smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803019421","repostId":1138487254,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138487254","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627391824,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138487254?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 21:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138487254","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAG","content":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years<blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数如何在10年内超越道琼斯指数</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8474c2fb4a64f693d66e2d4ffd1d7d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Nasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.<blockquote>纳斯达克3万？这并不像你想象的那么牵强。如果该指数继续以过去12个月的速度上涨，它将在短短两年内（2023年7月）达到这一原本难以想象的里程碑。</blockquote> Welcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s&nbsp;extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.<blockquote>欢迎来到最新的室内游戏，其灵感来自纳斯达克复合材料的非凡性能，使其达到了15,000大关的尖端。该指数最近在2020年3月交易价格低于7,000点。</blockquote> To be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，纳斯达克综合指数是人为高的，因为它在冠状病毒大流行初期的人为低水平。但这只能部分解释纳斯达克能以多快的速度达到30,000。相反，如果我们推断纳斯达克过去五年的回报，它只会略微增加其实现这一目标所需的时间——达到3.3年。</blockquote> A related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.<blockquote>一个相关的室内游戏是想象纳斯达克指数需要多长时间才能超越道琼斯工业平均指数。这需要更长的时间，因为当纳斯达克试图超越道琼斯指数时，道琼斯指数本身就会上涨。但是，假设这两个基准各自的五年增长率持续下去，纳斯达克将在9.9年内（即2031年夏季）超过道琼斯指数。</blockquote> Here’s the catch<blockquote>这是个问题</blockquote> Before you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.<blockquote>在您对这些高纳斯达克综合水平的前景过于兴奋之前，您应该知道有一个问题：这些预测在很大程度上取决于您选择推断未来的时间段。并非所有的预测都是乐观的。</blockquote> For example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.<blockquote>例如，不要关注过去一年或五年的时期，而是使用过去21年以上的时期进行推断。这让你回到了互联网泡沫的顶部，就在泡沫破灭之前，纳斯达克综合指数的价值下跌了近80%。假设纳斯达克自2000年3月高点以来的增长率，它将在14年内触及30,000点大关，并且永远不会超过道琼斯指数——因为这些蓝筹股实际上在过去21年多的时间里表现优于纳斯达克。</blockquote> So the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.<blockquote>因此，这些室内游戏的真正意义应该是在你对市场未来的预测中引入现实检验。近年来，股市的表现远好于我们对未来的预期。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b13c6bd176fff9917be367c0d304aa48\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> What is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the&nbsp;market’s current extreme overvaluation&nbsp;into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a&nbsp;database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).<blockquote>什么是现实？答案取决于各种因素，比如你是否考虑到市场目前的极度高估。但如果你只是简单地将过去外推到未来而不考虑估值，你应该尽可能长时间地关注过去。就美国市场而言，数据至少可以追溯到1793年（由圣克拉拉大学利维商学院名誉教授爱德华·麦夸里提供的数据库提供）。</blockquote> Based on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:<blockquote>根据他的数据库，我对纳斯达克未来几年的表现有以下预测：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Overall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation</li> <li>Expected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per&nbsp;Cleveland Fed model)</li> <li>Nasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per&nbsp;data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French&nbsp;on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)</li> </ul> The net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.<blockquote><ul><li>自1793年以来整体市场年化回报率：年化回报率高于通胀6.1%</li><li>未来十年预期通胀率：1.6%（根据克利夫兰联储模型）</li><li>纳斯达克综合指数相对于整体市场的预期回报率：年化负0.1%（根据Dartmouth教授Ken French自1926年以来关于大盘成长板块表现的数据，该板块最接近主导纳斯达克综合指数的股票）</li></ul>最终结果是：未来几年的年化名义回报率为7.6%。这远低于纳斯达克综合指数过去12个月41.8%的回报率，或过去五年23.8%的年化回报率。</blockquote> In fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.<blockquote>事实上，7.6%的年化回报率并不比纳斯达克综合指数自互联网泡沫顶部以来的平均回报率好多少。按照7.6%的年化增长率计算，该指数需要9.7年才能达到30,000点。请记住，假设市场目前的高估影响了股票的未来回报，那么纳斯达克综合指数需要更长的时间才能达到30,000点。</blockquote> The bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.<blockquote>底线？树不会长到天上。在庆祝近年来市场带来的好运的同时，你绝对不应该变得贪婪。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-07-27 21:17\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nHow the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years<blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数如何在10年内超越道琼斯指数</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8474c2fb4a64f693d66e2d4ffd1d7d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Nasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.<blockquote>纳斯达克3万？这并不像你想象的那么牵强。如果该指数继续以过去12个月的速度上涨，它将在短短两年内（2023年7月）达到这一原本难以想象的里程碑。</blockquote> Welcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s&nbsp;extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.<blockquote>欢迎来到最新的室内游戏，其灵感来自纳斯达克复合材料的非凡性能，使其达到了15,000大关的尖端。该指数最近在2020年3月交易价格低于7,000点。</blockquote> To be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，纳斯达克综合指数是人为高的，因为它在冠状病毒大流行初期的人为低水平。但这只能部分解释纳斯达克能以多快的速度达到30,000。相反，如果我们推断纳斯达克过去五年的回报，它只会略微增加其实现这一目标所需的时间——达到3.3年。</blockquote> A related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.<blockquote>一个相关的室内游戏是想象纳斯达克指数需要多长时间才能超越道琼斯工业平均指数。这需要更长的时间，因为当纳斯达克试图超越道琼斯指数时，道琼斯指数本身就会上涨。但是，假设这两个基准各自的五年增长率持续下去，纳斯达克将在9.9年内（即2031年夏季）超过道琼斯指数。</blockquote> Here’s the catch<blockquote>这是个问题</blockquote> Before you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.<blockquote>在您对这些高纳斯达克综合水平的前景过于兴奋之前，您应该知道有一个问题：这些预测在很大程度上取决于您选择推断未来的时间段。并非所有的预测都是乐观的。</blockquote> For example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.<blockquote>例如，不要关注过去一年或五年的时期，而是使用过去21年以上的时期进行推断。这让你回到了互联网泡沫的顶部，就在泡沫破灭之前，纳斯达克综合指数的价值下跌了近80%。假设纳斯达克自2000年3月高点以来的增长率，它将在14年内触及30,000点大关，并且永远不会超过道琼斯指数——因为这些蓝筹股实际上在过去21年多的时间里表现优于纳斯达克。</blockquote> So the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.<blockquote>因此，这些室内游戏的真正意义应该是在你对市场未来的预测中引入现实检验。近年来，股市的表现远好于我们对未来的预期。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b13c6bd176fff9917be367c0d304aa48\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> What is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the&nbsp;market’s current extreme overvaluation&nbsp;into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a&nbsp;database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).<blockquote>什么是现实？答案取决于各种因素，比如你是否考虑到市场目前的极度高估。但如果你只是简单地将过去外推到未来而不考虑估值，你应该尽可能长时间地关注过去。就美国市场而言，数据至少可以追溯到1793年（由圣克拉拉大学利维商学院名誉教授爱德华·麦夸里提供的数据库提供）。</blockquote> Based on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:<blockquote>根据他的数据库，我对纳斯达克未来几年的表现有以下预测：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Overall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation</li> <li>Expected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per&nbsp;Cleveland Fed model)</li> <li>Nasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per&nbsp;data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French&nbsp;on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)</li> </ul> The net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.<blockquote><ul><li>自1793年以来整体市场年化回报率：年化回报率高于通胀6.1%</li><li>未来十年预期通胀率：1.6%（根据克利夫兰联储模型）</li><li>纳斯达克综合指数相对于整体市场的预期回报率：年化负0.1%（根据Dartmouth教授Ken French自1926年以来关于大盘成长板块表现的数据，该板块最接近主导纳斯达克综合指数的股票）</li></ul>最终结果是：未来几年的年化名义回报率为7.6%。这远低于纳斯达克综合指数过去12个月41.8%的回报率，或过去五年23.8%的年化回报率。</blockquote> In fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.<blockquote>事实上，7.6%的年化回报率并不比纳斯达克综合指数自互联网泡沫顶部以来的平均回报率好多少。按照7.6%的年化增长率计算，该指数需要9.7年才能达到30,000点。请记住，假设市场目前的高估影响了股票的未来回报，那么纳斯达克综合指数需要更长的时间才能达到30,000点。</blockquote> The bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.<blockquote>底线？树不会长到天上。在庆祝近年来市场带来的好运的同时，你绝对不应该变得贪婪。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-15-000-is-near-do-i-hear-30-000-11627374665?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-15-000-is-near-do-i-hear-30-000-11627374665?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138487254","content_text":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nNasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.\nWelcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.\nTo be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.\nA related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.\nHere’s the catch\nBefore you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.\nFor example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.\nSo the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.\n\nWhat is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the market’s current extreme overvaluation into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).\nBased on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:\n\nOverall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation\nExpected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per Cleveland Fed model)\nNasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)\n\nThe net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.\nIn fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.\nThe bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":809743894,"gmtCreate":1627394443018,"gmtModify":1633765423638,"author":{"id":"3583738006388208","authorId":"3583738006388208","name":"CaptainMiya","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48b66794427d9d57f06bb85d96e46757","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3583738006388208","idStr":"3583738006388208"},"htmlText":"[Strong]&nbsp;","listText":"[Strong]&nbsp;","text":"[Strong]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809743894","repostId":1138487254,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138487254","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627391824,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138487254?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 21:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138487254","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAG","content":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years<blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数如何在10年内超越道琼斯指数</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8474c2fb4a64f693d66e2d4ffd1d7d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Nasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.<blockquote>纳斯达克3万？这并不像你想象的那么牵强。如果该指数继续以过去12个月的速度上涨，它将在短短两年内（2023年7月）达到这一原本难以想象的里程碑。</blockquote> Welcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s&nbsp;extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.<blockquote>欢迎来到最新的室内游戏，其灵感来自纳斯达克复合材料的非凡性能，使其达到了15,000大关的尖端。该指数最近在2020年3月交易价格低于7,000点。</blockquote> To be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，纳斯达克综合指数是人为高的，因为它在冠状病毒大流行初期的人为低水平。但这只能部分解释纳斯达克能以多快的速度达到30,000。相反，如果我们推断纳斯达克过去五年的回报，它只会略微增加其实现这一目标所需的时间——达到3.3年。</blockquote> A related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.<blockquote>一个相关的室内游戏是想象纳斯达克指数需要多长时间才能超越道琼斯工业平均指数。这需要更长的时间，因为当纳斯达克试图超越道琼斯指数时，道琼斯指数本身就会上涨。但是，假设这两个基准各自的五年增长率持续下去，纳斯达克将在9.9年内（即2031年夏季）超过道琼斯指数。</blockquote> Here’s the catch<blockquote>这是个问题</blockquote> Before you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.<blockquote>在您对这些高纳斯达克综合水平的前景过于兴奋之前，您应该知道有一个问题：这些预测在很大程度上取决于您选择推断未来的时间段。并非所有的预测都是乐观的。</blockquote> For example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.<blockquote>例如，不要关注过去一年或五年的时期，而是使用过去21年以上的时期进行推断。这让你回到了互联网泡沫的顶部，就在泡沫破灭之前，纳斯达克综合指数的价值下跌了近80%。假设纳斯达克自2000年3月高点以来的增长率，它将在14年内触及30,000点大关，并且永远不会超过道琼斯指数——因为这些蓝筹股实际上在过去21年多的时间里表现优于纳斯达克。</blockquote> So the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.<blockquote>因此，这些室内游戏的真正意义应该是在你对市场未来的预测中引入现实检验。近年来，股市的表现远好于我们对未来的预期。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b13c6bd176fff9917be367c0d304aa48\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> What is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the&nbsp;market’s current extreme overvaluation&nbsp;into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a&nbsp;database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).<blockquote>什么是现实？答案取决于各种因素，比如你是否考虑到市场目前的极度高估。但如果你只是简单地将过去外推到未来而不考虑估值，你应该尽可能长时间地关注过去。就美国市场而言，数据至少可以追溯到1793年（由圣克拉拉大学利维商学院名誉教授爱德华·麦夸里提供的数据库提供）。</blockquote> Based on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:<blockquote>根据他的数据库，我对纳斯达克未来几年的表现有以下预测：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Overall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation</li> <li>Expected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per&nbsp;Cleveland Fed model)</li> <li>Nasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per&nbsp;data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French&nbsp;on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)</li> </ul> The net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.<blockquote><ul><li>自1793年以来整体市场年化回报率：年化回报率高于通胀6.1%</li><li>未来十年预期通胀率：1.6%（根据克利夫兰联储模型）</li><li>纳斯达克综合指数相对于整体市场的预期回报率：年化负0.1%（根据Dartmouth教授Ken French自1926年以来关于大盘成长板块表现的数据，该板块最接近主导纳斯达克综合指数的股票）</li></ul>最终结果是：未来几年的年化名义回报率为7.6%。这远低于纳斯达克综合指数过去12个月41.8%的回报率，或过去五年23.8%的年化回报率。</blockquote> In fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.<blockquote>事实上，7.6%的年化回报率并不比纳斯达克综合指数自互联网泡沫顶部以来的平均回报率好多少。按照7.6%的年化增长率计算，该指数需要9.7年才能达到30,000点。请记住，假设市场目前的高估影响了股票的未来回报，那么纳斯达克综合指数需要更长的时间才能达到30,000点。</blockquote> The bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.<blockquote>底线？树不会长到天上。在庆祝近年来市场带来的好运的同时，你绝对不应该变得贪婪。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-07-27 21:17\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nHow the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years<blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数如何在10年内超越道琼斯指数</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8474c2fb4a64f693d66e2d4ffd1d7d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Nasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.<blockquote>纳斯达克3万？这并不像你想象的那么牵强。如果该指数继续以过去12个月的速度上涨，它将在短短两年内（2023年7月）达到这一原本难以想象的里程碑。</blockquote> Welcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s&nbsp;extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.<blockquote>欢迎来到最新的室内游戏，其灵感来自纳斯达克复合材料的非凡性能，使其达到了15,000大关的尖端。该指数最近在2020年3月交易价格低于7,000点。</blockquote> To be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，纳斯达克综合指数是人为高的，因为它在冠状病毒大流行初期的人为低水平。但这只能部分解释纳斯达克能以多快的速度达到30,000。相反，如果我们推断纳斯达克过去五年的回报，它只会略微增加其实现这一目标所需的时间——达到3.3年。</blockquote> A related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.<blockquote>一个相关的室内游戏是想象纳斯达克指数需要多长时间才能超越道琼斯工业平均指数。这需要更长的时间，因为当纳斯达克试图超越道琼斯指数时，道琼斯指数本身就会上涨。但是，假设这两个基准各自的五年增长率持续下去，纳斯达克将在9.9年内（即2031年夏季）超过道琼斯指数。</blockquote> Here’s the catch<blockquote>这是个问题</blockquote> Before you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.<blockquote>在您对这些高纳斯达克综合水平的前景过于兴奋之前，您应该知道有一个问题：这些预测在很大程度上取决于您选择推断未来的时间段。并非所有的预测都是乐观的。</blockquote> For example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.<blockquote>例如，不要关注过去一年或五年的时期，而是使用过去21年以上的时期进行推断。这让你回到了互联网泡沫的顶部，就在泡沫破灭之前，纳斯达克综合指数的价值下跌了近80%。假设纳斯达克自2000年3月高点以来的增长率，它将在14年内触及30,000点大关，并且永远不会超过道琼斯指数——因为这些蓝筹股实际上在过去21年多的时间里表现优于纳斯达克。</blockquote> So the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.<blockquote>因此，这些室内游戏的真正意义应该是在你对市场未来的预测中引入现实检验。近年来，股市的表现远好于我们对未来的预期。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b13c6bd176fff9917be367c0d304aa48\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> What is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the&nbsp;market’s current extreme overvaluation&nbsp;into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a&nbsp;database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).<blockquote>什么是现实？答案取决于各种因素，比如你是否考虑到市场目前的极度高估。但如果你只是简单地将过去外推到未来而不考虑估值，你应该尽可能长时间地关注过去。就美国市场而言，数据至少可以追溯到1793年（由圣克拉拉大学利维商学院名誉教授爱德华·麦夸里提供的数据库提供）。</blockquote> Based on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:<blockquote>根据他的数据库，我对纳斯达克未来几年的表现有以下预测：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Overall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation</li> <li>Expected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per&nbsp;Cleveland Fed model)</li> <li>Nasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per&nbsp;data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French&nbsp;on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)</li> </ul> The net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.<blockquote><ul><li>自1793年以来整体市场年化回报率：年化回报率高于通胀6.1%</li><li>未来十年预期通胀率：1.6%（根据克利夫兰联储模型）</li><li>纳斯达克综合指数相对于整体市场的预期回报率：年化负0.1%（根据Dartmouth教授Ken French自1926年以来关于大盘成长板块表现的数据，该板块最接近主导纳斯达克综合指数的股票）</li></ul>最终结果是：未来几年的年化名义回报率为7.6%。这远低于纳斯达克综合指数过去12个月41.8%的回报率，或过去五年23.8%的年化回报率。</blockquote> In fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.<blockquote>事实上，7.6%的年化回报率并不比纳斯达克综合指数自互联网泡沫顶部以来的平均回报率好多少。按照7.6%的年化增长率计算，该指数需要9.7年才能达到30,000点。请记住，假设市场目前的高估影响了股票的未来回报，那么纳斯达克综合指数需要更长的时间才能达到30,000点。</blockquote> The bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.<blockquote>底线？树不会长到天上。在庆祝近年来市场带来的好运的同时，你绝对不应该变得贪婪。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-15-000-is-near-do-i-hear-30-000-11627374665?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-15-000-is-near-do-i-hear-30-000-11627374665?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138487254","content_text":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nNasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.\nWelcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.\nTo be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.\nA related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.\nHere’s the catch\nBefore you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.\nFor example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.\nSo the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.\n\nWhat is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the market’s current extreme overvaluation into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).\nBased on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:\n\nOverall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation\nExpected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per Cleveland Fed model)\nNasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)\n\nThe net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.\nIn fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.\nThe bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":809757511,"gmtCreate":1627394318333,"gmtModify":1631891522721,"author":{"id":"3586737269713101","authorId":"3586737269713101","name":"ERICGAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d47fb3c42fd4b48bf2db7076d6fd8a","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3586737269713101","idStr":"3586737269713101"},"htmlText":"Yeah","listText":"Yeah","text":"Yeah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809757511","repostId":1138487254,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138487254","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627391824,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138487254?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 21:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138487254","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAG","content":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years<blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数如何在10年内超越道琼斯指数</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8474c2fb4a64f693d66e2d4ffd1d7d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Nasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.<blockquote>纳斯达克3万？这并不像你想象的那么牵强。如果该指数继续以过去12个月的速度上涨，它将在短短两年内（2023年7月）达到这一原本难以想象的里程碑。</blockquote> Welcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s&nbsp;extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.<blockquote>欢迎来到最新的室内游戏，其灵感来自纳斯达克复合材料的非凡性能，使其达到了15,000大关的尖端。该指数最近在2020年3月交易价格低于7,000点。</blockquote> To be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，纳斯达克综合指数是人为高的，因为它在冠状病毒大流行初期的人为低水平。但这只能部分解释纳斯达克能以多快的速度达到30,000。相反，如果我们推断纳斯达克过去五年的回报，它只会略微增加其实现这一目标所需的时间——达到3.3年。</blockquote> A related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.<blockquote>一个相关的室内游戏是想象纳斯达克指数需要多长时间才能超越道琼斯工业平均指数。这需要更长的时间，因为当纳斯达克试图超越道琼斯指数时，道琼斯指数本身就会上涨。但是，假设这两个基准各自的五年增长率持续下去，纳斯达克将在9.9年内（即2031年夏季）超过道琼斯指数。</blockquote> Here’s the catch<blockquote>这是个问题</blockquote> Before you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.<blockquote>在您对这些高纳斯达克综合水平的前景过于兴奋之前，您应该知道有一个问题：这些预测在很大程度上取决于您选择推断未来的时间段。并非所有的预测都是乐观的。</blockquote> For example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.<blockquote>例如，不要关注过去一年或五年的时期，而是使用过去21年以上的时期进行推断。这让你回到了互联网泡沫的顶部，就在泡沫破灭之前，纳斯达克综合指数的价值下跌了近80%。假设纳斯达克自2000年3月高点以来的增长率，它将在14年内触及30,000点大关，并且永远不会超过道琼斯指数——因为这些蓝筹股实际上在过去21年多的时间里表现优于纳斯达克。</blockquote> So the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.<blockquote>因此，这些室内游戏的真正意义应该是在你对市场未来的预测中引入现实检验。近年来，股市的表现远好于我们对未来的预期。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b13c6bd176fff9917be367c0d304aa48\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> What is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the&nbsp;market’s current extreme overvaluation&nbsp;into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a&nbsp;database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).<blockquote>什么是现实？答案取决于各种因素，比如你是否考虑到市场目前的极度高估。但如果你只是简单地将过去外推到未来而不考虑估值，你应该尽可能长时间地关注过去。就美国市场而言，数据至少可以追溯到1793年（由圣克拉拉大学利维商学院名誉教授爱德华·麦夸里提供的数据库提供）。</blockquote> Based on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:<blockquote>根据他的数据库，我对纳斯达克未来几年的表现有以下预测：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Overall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation</li> <li>Expected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per&nbsp;Cleveland Fed model)</li> <li>Nasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per&nbsp;data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French&nbsp;on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)</li> </ul> The net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.<blockquote><ul><li>自1793年以来整体市场年化回报率：年化回报率高于通胀6.1%</li><li>未来十年预期通胀率：1.6%（根据克利夫兰联储模型）</li><li>纳斯达克综合指数相对于整体市场的预期回报率：年化负0.1%（根据Dartmouth教授Ken French自1926年以来关于大盘成长板块表现的数据，该板块最接近主导纳斯达克综合指数的股票）</li></ul>最终结果是：未来几年的年化名义回报率为7.6%。这远低于纳斯达克综合指数过去12个月41.8%的回报率，或过去五年23.8%的年化回报率。</blockquote> In fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.<blockquote>事实上，7.6%的年化回报率并不比纳斯达克综合指数自互联网泡沫顶部以来的平均回报率好多少。按照7.6%的年化增长率计算，该指数需要9.7年才能达到30,000点。请记住，假设市场目前的高估影响了股票的未来回报，那么纳斯达克综合指数需要更长的时间才能达到30,000点。</blockquote> The bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.<blockquote>底线？树不会长到天上。在庆祝近年来市场带来的好运的同时，你绝对不应该变得贪婪。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-07-27 21:17\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nHow the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years<blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数如何在10年内超越道琼斯指数</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8474c2fb4a64f693d66e2d4ffd1d7d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Nasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.<blockquote>纳斯达克3万？这并不像你想象的那么牵强。如果该指数继续以过去12个月的速度上涨，它将在短短两年内（2023年7月）达到这一原本难以想象的里程碑。</blockquote> Welcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s&nbsp;extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.<blockquote>欢迎来到最新的室内游戏，其灵感来自纳斯达克复合材料的非凡性能，使其达到了15,000大关的尖端。该指数最近在2020年3月交易价格低于7,000点。</blockquote> To be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，纳斯达克综合指数是人为高的，因为它在冠状病毒大流行初期的人为低水平。但这只能部分解释纳斯达克能以多快的速度达到30,000。相反，如果我们推断纳斯达克过去五年的回报，它只会略微增加其实现这一目标所需的时间——达到3.3年。</blockquote> A related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.<blockquote>一个相关的室内游戏是想象纳斯达克指数需要多长时间才能超越道琼斯工业平均指数。这需要更长的时间，因为当纳斯达克试图超越道琼斯指数时，道琼斯指数本身就会上涨。但是，假设这两个基准各自的五年增长率持续下去，纳斯达克将在9.9年内（即2031年夏季）超过道琼斯指数。</blockquote> Here’s the catch<blockquote>这是个问题</blockquote> Before you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.<blockquote>在您对这些高纳斯达克综合水平的前景过于兴奋之前，您应该知道有一个问题：这些预测在很大程度上取决于您选择推断未来的时间段。并非所有的预测都是乐观的。</blockquote> For example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.<blockquote>例如，不要关注过去一年或五年的时期，而是使用过去21年以上的时期进行推断。这让你回到了互联网泡沫的顶部，就在泡沫破灭之前，纳斯达克综合指数的价值下跌了近80%。假设纳斯达克自2000年3月高点以来的增长率，它将在14年内触及30,000点大关，并且永远不会超过道琼斯指数——因为这些蓝筹股实际上在过去21年多的时间里表现优于纳斯达克。</blockquote> So the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.<blockquote>因此，这些室内游戏的真正意义应该是在你对市场未来的预测中引入现实检验。近年来，股市的表现远好于我们对未来的预期。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b13c6bd176fff9917be367c0d304aa48\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> What is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the&nbsp;market’s current extreme overvaluation&nbsp;into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a&nbsp;database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).<blockquote>什么是现实？答案取决于各种因素，比如你是否考虑到市场目前的极度高估。但如果你只是简单地将过去外推到未来而不考虑估值，你应该尽可能长时间地关注过去。就美国市场而言，数据至少可以追溯到1793年（由圣克拉拉大学利维商学院名誉教授爱德华·麦夸里提供的数据库提供）。</blockquote> Based on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:<blockquote>根据他的数据库，我对纳斯达克未来几年的表现有以下预测：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Overall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation</li> <li>Expected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per&nbsp;Cleveland Fed model)</li> <li>Nasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per&nbsp;data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French&nbsp;on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)</li> </ul> The net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.<blockquote><ul><li>自1793年以来整体市场年化回报率：年化回报率高于通胀6.1%</li><li>未来十年预期通胀率：1.6%（根据克利夫兰联储模型）</li><li>纳斯达克综合指数相对于整体市场的预期回报率：年化负0.1%（根据Dartmouth教授Ken French自1926年以来关于大盘成长板块表现的数据，该板块最接近主导纳斯达克综合指数的股票）</li></ul>最终结果是：未来几年的年化名义回报率为7.6%。这远低于纳斯达克综合指数过去12个月41.8%的回报率，或过去五年23.8%的年化回报率。</blockquote> In fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.<blockquote>事实上，7.6%的年化回报率并不比纳斯达克综合指数自互联网泡沫顶部以来的平均回报率好多少。按照7.6%的年化增长率计算，该指数需要9.7年才能达到30,000点。请记住，假设市场目前的高估影响了股票的未来回报，那么纳斯达克综合指数需要更长的时间才能达到30,000点。</blockquote> The bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.<blockquote>底线？树不会长到天上。在庆祝近年来市场带来的好运的同时，你绝对不应该变得贪婪。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-15-000-is-near-do-i-hear-30-000-11627374665?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-15-000-is-near-do-i-hear-30-000-11627374665?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138487254","content_text":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nNasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.\nWelcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.\nTo be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.\nA related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.\nHere’s the catch\nBefore you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.\nFor example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.\nSo the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.\n\nWhat is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the market’s current extreme overvaluation into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).\nBased on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:\n\nOverall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation\nExpected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per Cleveland Fed model)\nNasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)\n\nThe net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.\nIn fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.\nThe bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":809720785,"gmtCreate":1627393711347,"gmtModify":1633765435043,"author":{"id":"3586435226448634","authorId":"3586435226448634","name":"siewling19","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3586435226448634","idStr":"3586435226448634"},"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809720785","repostId":1138487254,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138487254","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627391824,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138487254?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 21:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138487254","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAG","content":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years<blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数如何在10年内超越道琼斯指数</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8474c2fb4a64f693d66e2d4ffd1d7d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Nasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.<blockquote>纳斯达克3万？这并不像你想象的那么牵强。如果该指数继续以过去12个月的速度上涨，它将在短短两年内（2023年7月）达到这一原本难以想象的里程碑。</blockquote> Welcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s&nbsp;extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.<blockquote>欢迎来到最新的室内游戏，其灵感来自纳斯达克复合材料的非凡性能，使其达到了15,000大关的尖端。该指数最近在2020年3月交易价格低于7,000点。</blockquote> To be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，纳斯达克综合指数是人为高的，因为它在冠状病毒大流行初期的人为低水平。但这只能部分解释纳斯达克能以多快的速度达到30,000。相反，如果我们推断纳斯达克过去五年的回报，它只会略微增加其实现这一目标所需的时间——达到3.3年。</blockquote> A related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.<blockquote>一个相关的室内游戏是想象纳斯达克指数需要多长时间才能超越道琼斯工业平均指数。这需要更长的时间，因为当纳斯达克试图超越道琼斯指数时，道琼斯指数本身就会上涨。但是，假设这两个基准各自的五年增长率持续下去，纳斯达克将在9.9年内（即2031年夏季）超过道琼斯指数。</blockquote> Here’s the catch<blockquote>这是个问题</blockquote> Before you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.<blockquote>在您对这些高纳斯达克综合水平的前景过于兴奋之前，您应该知道有一个问题：这些预测在很大程度上取决于您选择推断未来的时间段。并非所有的预测都是乐观的。</blockquote> For example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.<blockquote>例如，不要关注过去一年或五年的时期，而是使用过去21年以上的时期进行推断。这让你回到了互联网泡沫的顶部，就在泡沫破灭之前，纳斯达克综合指数的价值下跌了近80%。假设纳斯达克自2000年3月高点以来的增长率，它将在14年内触及30,000点大关，并且永远不会超过道琼斯指数——因为这些蓝筹股实际上在过去21年多的时间里表现优于纳斯达克。</blockquote> So the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.<blockquote>因此，这些室内游戏的真正意义应该是在你对市场未来的预测中引入现实检验。近年来，股市的表现远好于我们对未来的预期。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b13c6bd176fff9917be367c0d304aa48\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> What is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the&nbsp;market’s current extreme overvaluation&nbsp;into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a&nbsp;database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).<blockquote>什么是现实？答案取决于各种因素，比如你是否考虑到市场目前的极度高估。但如果你只是简单地将过去外推到未来而不考虑估值，你应该尽可能长时间地关注过去。就美国市场而言，数据至少可以追溯到1793年（由圣克拉拉大学利维商学院名誉教授爱德华·麦夸里提供的数据库提供）。</blockquote> Based on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:<blockquote>根据他的数据库，我对纳斯达克未来几年的表现有以下预测：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Overall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation</li> <li>Expected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per&nbsp;Cleveland Fed model)</li> <li>Nasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per&nbsp;data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French&nbsp;on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)</li> </ul> The net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.<blockquote><ul><li>自1793年以来整体市场年化回报率：年化回报率高于通胀6.1%</li><li>未来十年预期通胀率：1.6%（根据克利夫兰联储模型）</li><li>纳斯达克综合指数相对于整体市场的预期回报率：年化负0.1%（根据Dartmouth教授Ken French自1926年以来关于大盘成长板块表现的数据，该板块最接近主导纳斯达克综合指数的股票）</li></ul>最终结果是：未来几年的年化名义回报率为7.6%。这远低于纳斯达克综合指数过去12个月41.8%的回报率，或过去五年23.8%的年化回报率。</blockquote> In fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.<blockquote>事实上，7.6%的年化回报率并不比纳斯达克综合指数自互联网泡沫顶部以来的平均回报率好多少。按照7.6%的年化增长率计算，该指数需要9.7年才能达到30,000点。请记住，假设市场目前的高估影响了股票的未来回报，那么纳斯达克综合指数需要更长的时间才能达到30,000点。</blockquote> The bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.<blockquote>底线？树不会长到天上。在庆祝近年来市场带来的好运的同时，你绝对不应该变得贪婪。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-07-27 21:17\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nHow the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years<blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数如何在10年内超越道琼斯指数</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8474c2fb4a64f693d66e2d4ffd1d7d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Nasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.<blockquote>纳斯达克3万？这并不像你想象的那么牵强。如果该指数继续以过去12个月的速度上涨，它将在短短两年内（2023年7月）达到这一原本难以想象的里程碑。</blockquote> Welcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s&nbsp;extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.<blockquote>欢迎来到最新的室内游戏，其灵感来自纳斯达克复合材料的非凡性能，使其达到了15,000大关的尖端。该指数最近在2020年3月交易价格低于7,000点。</blockquote> To be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，纳斯达克综合指数是人为高的，因为它在冠状病毒大流行初期的人为低水平。但这只能部分解释纳斯达克能以多快的速度达到30,000。相反，如果我们推断纳斯达克过去五年的回报，它只会略微增加其实现这一目标所需的时间——达到3.3年。</blockquote> A related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.<blockquote>一个相关的室内游戏是想象纳斯达克指数需要多长时间才能超越道琼斯工业平均指数。这需要更长的时间，因为当纳斯达克试图超越道琼斯指数时，道琼斯指数本身就会上涨。但是，假设这两个基准各自的五年增长率持续下去，纳斯达克将在9.9年内（即2031年夏季）超过道琼斯指数。</blockquote> Here’s the catch<blockquote>这是个问题</blockquote> Before you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.<blockquote>在您对这些高纳斯达克综合水平的前景过于兴奋之前，您应该知道有一个问题：这些预测在很大程度上取决于您选择推断未来的时间段。并非所有的预测都是乐观的。</blockquote> For example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.<blockquote>例如，不要关注过去一年或五年的时期，而是使用过去21年以上的时期进行推断。这让你回到了互联网泡沫的顶部，就在泡沫破灭之前，纳斯达克综合指数的价值下跌了近80%。假设纳斯达克自2000年3月高点以来的增长率，它将在14年内触及30,000点大关，并且永远不会超过道琼斯指数——因为这些蓝筹股实际上在过去21年多的时间里表现优于纳斯达克。</blockquote> So the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.<blockquote>因此，这些室内游戏的真正意义应该是在你对市场未来的预测中引入现实检验。近年来，股市的表现远好于我们对未来的预期。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b13c6bd176fff9917be367c0d304aa48\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> What is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the&nbsp;market’s current extreme overvaluation&nbsp;into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a&nbsp;database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).<blockquote>什么是现实？答案取决于各种因素，比如你是否考虑到市场目前的极度高估。但如果你只是简单地将过去外推到未来而不考虑估值，你应该尽可能长时间地关注过去。就美国市场而言，数据至少可以追溯到1793年（由圣克拉拉大学利维商学院名誉教授爱德华·麦夸里提供的数据库提供）。</blockquote> Based on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:<blockquote>根据他的数据库，我对纳斯达克未来几年的表现有以下预测：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Overall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation</li> <li>Expected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per&nbsp;Cleveland Fed model)</li> <li>Nasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per&nbsp;data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French&nbsp;on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)</li> </ul> The net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.<blockquote><ul><li>自1793年以来整体市场年化回报率：年化回报率高于通胀6.1%</li><li>未来十年预期通胀率：1.6%（根据克利夫兰联储模型）</li><li>纳斯达克综合指数相对于整体市场的预期回报率：年化负0.1%（根据Dartmouth教授Ken French自1926年以来关于大盘成长板块表现的数据，该板块最接近主导纳斯达克综合指数的股票）</li></ul>最终结果是：未来几年的年化名义回报率为7.6%。这远低于纳斯达克综合指数过去12个月41.8%的回报率，或过去五年23.8%的年化回报率。</blockquote> In fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.<blockquote>事实上，7.6%的年化回报率并不比纳斯达克综合指数自互联网泡沫顶部以来的平均回报率好多少。按照7.6%的年化增长率计算，该指数需要9.7年才能达到30,000点。请记住，假设市场目前的高估影响了股票的未来回报，那么纳斯达克综合指数需要更长的时间才能达到30,000点。</blockquote> The bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.<blockquote>底线？树不会长到天上。在庆祝近年来市场带来的好运的同时，你绝对不应该变得贪婪。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-15-000-is-near-do-i-hear-30-000-11627374665?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-15-000-is-near-do-i-hear-30-000-11627374665?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138487254","content_text":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nNasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.\nWelcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.\nTo be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.\nA related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.\nHere’s the catch\nBefore you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.\nFor example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.\nSo the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.\n\nWhat is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the market’s current extreme overvaluation into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).\nBased on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:\n\nOverall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation\nExpected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per Cleveland Fed model)\nNasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)\n\nThe net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.\nIn fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.\nThe bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5347686,"gmtCreate":1627394458796,"gmtModify":1635220249654,"authorId":3583738006388208,"author":{"id":3583738006388208,"idStr":"3583738006388208","authorId":3583738006388208,"name":"CaptainMiya","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48b66794427d9d57f06bb85d96e46757","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":809720785,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[Strong]","text":"[Strong]","html":"[Strong]"},{"id":5347909,"gmtCreate":1627395249816,"gmtModify":1635220238187,"authorId":3557653405123178,"author":{"id":3557653405123178,"idStr":"3557653405123178","authorId":3557653405123178,"name":"Ohyzzz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/402442a70c451e1caf443199e55a77bb","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":809720785,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Like","text":"Like","html":"Like"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":809767543,"gmtCreate":1627393677782,"gmtModify":1633765435625,"author":{"id":"3566032787349185","authorId":"3566032787349185","name":"Khoogl","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3566032787349185","idStr":"3566032787349185"},"htmlText":"Great&nbsp;","listText":"Great&nbsp;","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809767543","repostId":1138487254,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138487254","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627391824,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138487254?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 21:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138487254","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAG","content":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years<blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数如何在10年内超越道琼斯指数</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8474c2fb4a64f693d66e2d4ffd1d7d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Nasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.<blockquote>纳斯达克3万？这并不像你想象的那么牵强。如果该指数继续以过去12个月的速度上涨，它将在短短两年内（2023年7月）达到这一原本难以想象的里程碑。</blockquote> Welcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s&nbsp;extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.<blockquote>欢迎来到最新的室内游戏，其灵感来自纳斯达克复合材料的非凡性能，使其达到了15,000大关的尖端。该指数最近在2020年3月交易价格低于7,000点。</blockquote> To be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，纳斯达克综合指数是人为高的，因为它在冠状病毒大流行初期的人为低水平。但这只能部分解释纳斯达克能以多快的速度达到30,000。相反，如果我们推断纳斯达克过去五年的回报，它只会略微增加其实现这一目标所需的时间——达到3.3年。</blockquote> A related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.<blockquote>一个相关的室内游戏是想象纳斯达克指数需要多长时间才能超越道琼斯工业平均指数。这需要更长的时间，因为当纳斯达克试图超越道琼斯指数时，道琼斯指数本身就会上涨。但是，假设这两个基准各自的五年增长率持续下去，纳斯达克将在9.9年内（即2031年夏季）超过道琼斯指数。</blockquote> Here’s the catch<blockquote>这是个问题</blockquote> Before you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.<blockquote>在您对这些高纳斯达克综合水平的前景过于兴奋之前，您应该知道有一个问题：这些预测在很大程度上取决于您选择推断未来的时间段。并非所有的预测都是乐观的。</blockquote> For example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.<blockquote>例如，不要关注过去一年或五年的时期，而是使用过去21年以上的时期进行推断。这让你回到了互联网泡沫的顶部，就在泡沫破灭之前，纳斯达克综合指数的价值下跌了近80%。假设纳斯达克自2000年3月高点以来的增长率，它将在14年内触及30,000点大关，并且永远不会超过道琼斯指数——因为这些蓝筹股实际上在过去21年多的时间里表现优于纳斯达克。</blockquote> So the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.<blockquote>因此，这些室内游戏的真正意义应该是在你对市场未来的预测中引入现实检验。近年来，股市的表现远好于我们对未来的预期。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b13c6bd176fff9917be367c0d304aa48\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> What is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the&nbsp;market’s current extreme overvaluation&nbsp;into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a&nbsp;database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).<blockquote>什么是现实？答案取决于各种因素，比如你是否考虑到市场目前的极度高估。但如果你只是简单地将过去外推到未来而不考虑估值，你应该尽可能长时间地关注过去。就美国市场而言，数据至少可以追溯到1793年（由圣克拉拉大学利维商学院名誉教授爱德华·麦夸里提供的数据库提供）。</blockquote> Based on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:<blockquote>根据他的数据库，我对纳斯达克未来几年的表现有以下预测：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Overall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation</li> <li>Expected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per&nbsp;Cleveland Fed model)</li> <li>Nasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per&nbsp;data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French&nbsp;on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)</li> </ul> The net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.<blockquote><ul><li>自1793年以来整体市场年化回报率：年化回报率高于通胀6.1%</li><li>未来十年预期通胀率：1.6%（根据克利夫兰联储模型）</li><li>纳斯达克综合指数相对于整体市场的预期回报率：年化负0.1%（根据Dartmouth教授Ken French自1926年以来关于大盘成长板块表现的数据，该板块最接近主导纳斯达克综合指数的股票）</li></ul>最终结果是：未来几年的年化名义回报率为7.6%。这远低于纳斯达克综合指数过去12个月41.8%的回报率，或过去五年23.8%的年化回报率。</blockquote> In fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.<blockquote>事实上，7.6%的年化回报率并不比纳斯达克综合指数自互联网泡沫顶部以来的平均回报率好多少。按照7.6%的年化增长率计算，该指数需要9.7年才能达到30,000点。请记住，假设市场目前的高估影响了股票的未来回报，那么纳斯达克综合指数需要更长的时间才能达到30,000点。</blockquote> The bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.<blockquote>底线？树不会长到天上。在庆祝近年来市场带来的好运的同时，你绝对不应该变得贪婪。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-07-27 21:17\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nHow the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years<blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数如何在10年内超越道琼斯指数</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8474c2fb4a64f693d66e2d4ffd1d7d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Nasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.<blockquote>纳斯达克3万？这并不像你想象的那么牵强。如果该指数继续以过去12个月的速度上涨，它将在短短两年内（2023年7月）达到这一原本难以想象的里程碑。</blockquote> Welcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s&nbsp;extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.<blockquote>欢迎来到最新的室内游戏，其灵感来自纳斯达克复合材料的非凡性能，使其达到了15,000大关的尖端。该指数最近在2020年3月交易价格低于7,000点。</blockquote> To be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，纳斯达克综合指数是人为高的，因为它在冠状病毒大流行初期的人为低水平。但这只能部分解释纳斯达克能以多快的速度达到30,000。相反，如果我们推断纳斯达克过去五年的回报，它只会略微增加其实现这一目标所需的时间——达到3.3年。</blockquote> A related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.<blockquote>一个相关的室内游戏是想象纳斯达克指数需要多长时间才能超越道琼斯工业平均指数。这需要更长的时间，因为当纳斯达克试图超越道琼斯指数时，道琼斯指数本身就会上涨。但是，假设这两个基准各自的五年增长率持续下去，纳斯达克将在9.9年内（即2031年夏季）超过道琼斯指数。</blockquote> Here’s the catch<blockquote>这是个问题</blockquote> Before you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.<blockquote>在您对这些高纳斯达克综合水平的前景过于兴奋之前，您应该知道有一个问题：这些预测在很大程度上取决于您选择推断未来的时间段。并非所有的预测都是乐观的。</blockquote> For example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.<blockquote>例如，不要关注过去一年或五年的时期，而是使用过去21年以上的时期进行推断。这让你回到了互联网泡沫的顶部，就在泡沫破灭之前，纳斯达克综合指数的价值下跌了近80%。假设纳斯达克自2000年3月高点以来的增长率，它将在14年内触及30,000点大关，并且永远不会超过道琼斯指数——因为这些蓝筹股实际上在过去21年多的时间里表现优于纳斯达克。</blockquote> So the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.<blockquote>因此，这些室内游戏的真正意义应该是在你对市场未来的预测中引入现实检验。近年来，股市的表现远好于我们对未来的预期。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b13c6bd176fff9917be367c0d304aa48\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> What is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the&nbsp;market’s current extreme overvaluation&nbsp;into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a&nbsp;database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).<blockquote>什么是现实？答案取决于各种因素，比如你是否考虑到市场目前的极度高估。但如果你只是简单地将过去外推到未来而不考虑估值，你应该尽可能长时间地关注过去。就美国市场而言，数据至少可以追溯到1793年（由圣克拉拉大学利维商学院名誉教授爱德华·麦夸里提供的数据库提供）。</blockquote> Based on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:<blockquote>根据他的数据库，我对纳斯达克未来几年的表现有以下预测：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Overall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation</li> <li>Expected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per&nbsp;Cleveland Fed model)</li> <li>Nasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per&nbsp;data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French&nbsp;on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)</li> </ul> The net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.<blockquote><ul><li>自1793年以来整体市场年化回报率：年化回报率高于通胀6.1%</li><li>未来十年预期通胀率：1.6%（根据克利夫兰联储模型）</li><li>纳斯达克综合指数相对于整体市场的预期回报率：年化负0.1%（根据Dartmouth教授Ken French自1926年以来关于大盘成长板块表现的数据，该板块最接近主导纳斯达克综合指数的股票）</li></ul>最终结果是：未来几年的年化名义回报率为7.6%。这远低于纳斯达克综合指数过去12个月41.8%的回报率，或过去五年23.8%的年化回报率。</blockquote> In fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.<blockquote>事实上，7.6%的年化回报率并不比纳斯达克综合指数自互联网泡沫顶部以来的平均回报率好多少。按照7.6%的年化增长率计算，该指数需要9.7年才能达到30,000点。请记住，假设市场目前的高估影响了股票的未来回报，那么纳斯达克综合指数需要更长的时间才能达到30,000点。</blockquote> The bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.<blockquote>底线？树不会长到天上。在庆祝近年来市场带来的好运的同时，你绝对不应该变得贪婪。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-15-000-is-near-do-i-hear-30-000-11627374665?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-15-000-is-near-do-i-hear-30-000-11627374665?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138487254","content_text":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nNasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.\nWelcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.\nTo be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.\nA related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.\nHere’s the catch\nBefore you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.\nFor example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.\nSo the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.\n\nWhat is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the market’s current extreme overvaluation into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).\nBased on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:\n\nOverall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation\nExpected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per Cleveland Fed model)\nNasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)\n\nThe net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.\nIn fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.\nThe bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5347543,"gmtCreate":1627393828323,"gmtModify":1635220257033,"authorId":3574735608125569,"author":{"id":3574735608125569,"idStr":"3574735608125569","authorId":3574735608125569,"name":"4573b69e","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":809767543,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Yeah","text":"Yeah","html":"Yeah"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":809787977,"gmtCreate":1627393405099,"gmtModify":1633765441826,"author":{"id":"4090234877856710","authorId":"4090234877856710","name":"437405Peter","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7af5a0286821b75068f13e1620729fc3","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4090234877856710","idStr":"4090234877856710"},"htmlText":"Great platform tiger","listText":"Great platform tiger","text":"Great platform tiger","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809787977","repostId":1138487254,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138487254","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627391824,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138487254?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 21:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138487254","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAG","content":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years<blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数如何在10年内超越道琼斯指数</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8474c2fb4a64f693d66e2d4ffd1d7d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Nasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.<blockquote>纳斯达克3万？这并不像你想象的那么牵强。如果该指数继续以过去12个月的速度上涨，它将在短短两年内（2023年7月）达到这一原本难以想象的里程碑。</blockquote> Welcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s&nbsp;extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.<blockquote>欢迎来到最新的室内游戏，其灵感来自纳斯达克复合材料的非凡性能，使其达到了15,000大关的尖端。该指数最近在2020年3月交易价格低于7,000点。</blockquote> To be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，纳斯达克综合指数是人为高的，因为它在冠状病毒大流行初期的人为低水平。但这只能部分解释纳斯达克能以多快的速度达到30,000。相反，如果我们推断纳斯达克过去五年的回报，它只会略微增加其实现这一目标所需的时间——达到3.3年。</blockquote> A related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.<blockquote>一个相关的室内游戏是想象纳斯达克指数需要多长时间才能超越道琼斯工业平均指数。这需要更长的时间，因为当纳斯达克试图超越道琼斯指数时，道琼斯指数本身就会上涨。但是，假设这两个基准各自的五年增长率持续下去，纳斯达克将在9.9年内（即2031年夏季）超过道琼斯指数。</blockquote> Here’s the catch<blockquote>这是个问题</blockquote> Before you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.<blockquote>在您对这些高纳斯达克综合水平的前景过于兴奋之前，您应该知道有一个问题：这些预测在很大程度上取决于您选择推断未来的时间段。并非所有的预测都是乐观的。</blockquote> For example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.<blockquote>例如，不要关注过去一年或五年的时期，而是使用过去21年以上的时期进行推断。这让你回到了互联网泡沫的顶部，就在泡沫破灭之前，纳斯达克综合指数的价值下跌了近80%。假设纳斯达克自2000年3月高点以来的增长率，它将在14年内触及30,000点大关，并且永远不会超过道琼斯指数——因为这些蓝筹股实际上在过去21年多的时间里表现优于纳斯达克。</blockquote> So the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.<blockquote>因此，这些室内游戏的真正意义应该是在你对市场未来的预测中引入现实检验。近年来，股市的表现远好于我们对未来的预期。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b13c6bd176fff9917be367c0d304aa48\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> What is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the&nbsp;market’s current extreme overvaluation&nbsp;into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a&nbsp;database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).<blockquote>什么是现实？答案取决于各种因素，比如你是否考虑到市场目前的极度高估。但如果你只是简单地将过去外推到未来而不考虑估值，你应该尽可能长时间地关注过去。就美国市场而言，数据至少可以追溯到1793年（由圣克拉拉大学利维商学院名誉教授爱德华·麦夸里提供的数据库提供）。</blockquote> Based on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:<blockquote>根据他的数据库，我对纳斯达克未来几年的表现有以下预测：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Overall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation</li> <li>Expected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per&nbsp;Cleveland Fed model)</li> <li>Nasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per&nbsp;data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French&nbsp;on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)</li> </ul> The net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.<blockquote><ul><li>自1793年以来整体市场年化回报率：年化回报率高于通胀6.1%</li><li>未来十年预期通胀率：1.6%（根据克利夫兰联储模型）</li><li>纳斯达克综合指数相对于整体市场的预期回报率：年化负0.1%（根据Dartmouth教授Ken French自1926年以来关于大盘成长板块表现的数据，该板块最接近主导纳斯达克综合指数的股票）</li></ul>最终结果是：未来几年的年化名义回报率为7.6%。这远低于纳斯达克综合指数过去12个月41.8%的回报率，或过去五年23.8%的年化回报率。</blockquote> In fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.<blockquote>事实上，7.6%的年化回报率并不比纳斯达克综合指数自互联网泡沫顶部以来的平均回报率好多少。按照7.6%的年化增长率计算，该指数需要9.7年才能达到30,000点。请记住，假设市场目前的高估影响了股票的未来回报，那么纳斯达克综合指数需要更长的时间才能达到30,000点。</blockquote> The bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.<blockquote>底线？树不会长到天上。在庆祝近年来市场带来的好运的同时，你绝对不应该变得贪婪。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-07-27 21:17\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nHow the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years<blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数如何在10年内超越道琼斯指数</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8474c2fb4a64f693d66e2d4ffd1d7d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Nasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.<blockquote>纳斯达克3万？这并不像你想象的那么牵强。如果该指数继续以过去12个月的速度上涨，它将在短短两年内（2023年7月）达到这一原本难以想象的里程碑。</blockquote> Welcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s&nbsp;extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.<blockquote>欢迎来到最新的室内游戏，其灵感来自纳斯达克复合材料的非凡性能，使其达到了15,000大关的尖端。该指数最近在2020年3月交易价格低于7,000点。</blockquote> To be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，纳斯达克综合指数是人为高的，因为它在冠状病毒大流行初期的人为低水平。但这只能部分解释纳斯达克能以多快的速度达到30,000。相反，如果我们推断纳斯达克过去五年的回报，它只会略微增加其实现这一目标所需的时间——达到3.3年。</blockquote> A related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.<blockquote>一个相关的室内游戏是想象纳斯达克指数需要多长时间才能超越道琼斯工业平均指数。这需要更长的时间，因为当纳斯达克试图超越道琼斯指数时，道琼斯指数本身就会上涨。但是，假设这两个基准各自的五年增长率持续下去，纳斯达克将在9.9年内（即2031年夏季）超过道琼斯指数。</blockquote> Here’s the catch<blockquote>这是个问题</blockquote> Before you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.<blockquote>在您对这些高纳斯达克综合水平的前景过于兴奋之前，您应该知道有一个问题：这些预测在很大程度上取决于您选择推断未来的时间段。并非所有的预测都是乐观的。</blockquote> For example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.<blockquote>例如，不要关注过去一年或五年的时期，而是使用过去21年以上的时期进行推断。这让你回到了互联网泡沫的顶部，就在泡沫破灭之前，纳斯达克综合指数的价值下跌了近80%。假设纳斯达克自2000年3月高点以来的增长率，它将在14年内触及30,000点大关，并且永远不会超过道琼斯指数——因为这些蓝筹股实际上在过去21年多的时间里表现优于纳斯达克。</blockquote> So the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.<blockquote>因此，这些室内游戏的真正意义应该是在你对市场未来的预测中引入现实检验。近年来，股市的表现远好于我们对未来的预期。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b13c6bd176fff9917be367c0d304aa48\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> What is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the&nbsp;market’s current extreme overvaluation&nbsp;into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a&nbsp;database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).<blockquote>什么是现实？答案取决于各种因素，比如你是否考虑到市场目前的极度高估。但如果你只是简单地将过去外推到未来而不考虑估值，你应该尽可能长时间地关注过去。就美国市场而言，数据至少可以追溯到1793年（由圣克拉拉大学利维商学院名誉教授爱德华·麦夸里提供的数据库提供）。</blockquote> Based on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:<blockquote>根据他的数据库，我对纳斯达克未来几年的表现有以下预测：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Overall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation</li> <li>Expected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per&nbsp;Cleveland Fed model)</li> <li>Nasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per&nbsp;data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French&nbsp;on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)</li> </ul> The net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.<blockquote><ul><li>自1793年以来整体市场年化回报率：年化回报率高于通胀6.1%</li><li>未来十年预期通胀率：1.6%（根据克利夫兰联储模型）</li><li>纳斯达克综合指数相对于整体市场的预期回报率：年化负0.1%（根据Dartmouth教授Ken French自1926年以来关于大盘成长板块表现的数据，该板块最接近主导纳斯达克综合指数的股票）</li></ul>最终结果是：未来几年的年化名义回报率为7.6%。这远低于纳斯达克综合指数过去12个月41.8%的回报率，或过去五年23.8%的年化回报率。</blockquote> In fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.<blockquote>事实上，7.6%的年化回报率并不比纳斯达克综合指数自互联网泡沫顶部以来的平均回报率好多少。按照7.6%的年化增长率计算，该指数需要9.7年才能达到30,000点。请记住，假设市场目前的高估影响了股票的未来回报，那么纳斯达克综合指数需要更长的时间才能达到30,000点。</blockquote> The bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.<blockquote>底线？树不会长到天上。在庆祝近年来市场带来的好运的同时，你绝对不应该变得贪婪。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-15-000-is-near-do-i-hear-30-000-11627374665?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-15-000-is-near-do-i-hear-30-000-11627374665?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138487254","content_text":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nNasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.\nWelcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.\nTo be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.\nA related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.\nHere’s the catch\nBefore you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.\nFor example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.\nSo the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.\n\nWhat is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the market’s current extreme overvaluation into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).\nBased on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:\n\nOverall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation\nExpected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per Cleveland Fed model)\nNasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)\n\nThe net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.\nIn fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.\nThe bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5347458,"gmtCreate":1627393463234,"gmtModify":1635220261996,"authorId":4090234877856710,"author":{"id":4090234877856710,"idStr":"4090234877856710","authorId":4090234877856710,"name":"437405Peter","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7af5a0286821b75068f13e1620729fc3","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":809787977,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Great!","text":"Great!","html":"Great!"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":809782383,"gmtCreate":1627393333042,"gmtModify":1633765443981,"author":{"id":"4090234877856710","authorId":"4090234877856710","name":"437405Peter","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7af5a0286821b75068f13e1620729fc3","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4090234877856710","idStr":"4090234877856710"},"htmlText":"Great!","listText":"Great!","text":"Great!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809782383","repostId":1138487254,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138487254","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627391824,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138487254?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 21:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138487254","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAG","content":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years<blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数如何在10年内超越道琼斯指数</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8474c2fb4a64f693d66e2d4ffd1d7d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Nasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.<blockquote>纳斯达克3万？这并不像你想象的那么牵强。如果该指数继续以过去12个月的速度上涨，它将在短短两年内（2023年7月）达到这一原本难以想象的里程碑。</blockquote> Welcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s&nbsp;extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.<blockquote>欢迎来到最新的室内游戏，其灵感来自纳斯达克复合材料的非凡性能，使其达到了15,000大关的尖端。该指数最近在2020年3月交易价格低于7,000点。</blockquote> To be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，纳斯达克综合指数是人为高的，因为它在冠状病毒大流行初期的人为低水平。但这只能部分解释纳斯达克能以多快的速度达到30,000。相反，如果我们推断纳斯达克过去五年的回报，它只会略微增加其实现这一目标所需的时间——达到3.3年。</blockquote> A related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.<blockquote>一个相关的室内游戏是想象纳斯达克指数需要多长时间才能超越道琼斯工业平均指数。这需要更长的时间，因为当纳斯达克试图超越道琼斯指数时，道琼斯指数本身就会上涨。但是，假设这两个基准各自的五年增长率持续下去，纳斯达克将在9.9年内（即2031年夏季）超过道琼斯指数。</blockquote> Here’s the catch<blockquote>这是个问题</blockquote> Before you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.<blockquote>在您对这些高纳斯达克综合水平的前景过于兴奋之前，您应该知道有一个问题：这些预测在很大程度上取决于您选择推断未来的时间段。并非所有的预测都是乐观的。</blockquote> For example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.<blockquote>例如，不要关注过去一年或五年的时期，而是使用过去21年以上的时期进行推断。这让你回到了互联网泡沫的顶部，就在泡沫破灭之前，纳斯达克综合指数的价值下跌了近80%。假设纳斯达克自2000年3月高点以来的增长率，它将在14年内触及30,000点大关，并且永远不会超过道琼斯指数——因为这些蓝筹股实际上在过去21年多的时间里表现优于纳斯达克。</blockquote> So the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.<blockquote>因此，这些室内游戏的真正意义应该是在你对市场未来的预测中引入现实检验。近年来，股市的表现远好于我们对未来的预期。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b13c6bd176fff9917be367c0d304aa48\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> What is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the&nbsp;market’s current extreme overvaluation&nbsp;into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a&nbsp;database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).<blockquote>什么是现实？答案取决于各种因素，比如你是否考虑到市场目前的极度高估。但如果你只是简单地将过去外推到未来而不考虑估值，你应该尽可能长时间地关注过去。就美国市场而言，数据至少可以追溯到1793年（由圣克拉拉大学利维商学院名誉教授爱德华·麦夸里提供的数据库提供）。</blockquote> Based on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:<blockquote>根据他的数据库，我对纳斯达克未来几年的表现有以下预测：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Overall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation</li> <li>Expected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per&nbsp;Cleveland Fed model)</li> <li>Nasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per&nbsp;data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French&nbsp;on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)</li> </ul> The net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.<blockquote><ul><li>自1793年以来整体市场年化回报率：年化回报率高于通胀6.1%</li><li>未来十年预期通胀率：1.6%（根据克利夫兰联储模型）</li><li>纳斯达克综合指数相对于整体市场的预期回报率：年化负0.1%（根据Dartmouth教授Ken French自1926年以来关于大盘成长板块表现的数据，该板块最接近主导纳斯达克综合指数的股票）</li></ul>最终结果是：未来几年的年化名义回报率为7.6%。这远低于纳斯达克综合指数过去12个月41.8%的回报率，或过去五年23.8%的年化回报率。</blockquote> In fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.<blockquote>事实上，7.6%的年化回报率并不比纳斯达克综合指数自互联网泡沫顶部以来的平均回报率好多少。按照7.6%的年化增长率计算，该指数需要9.7年才能达到30,000点。请记住，假设市场目前的高估影响了股票的未来回报，那么纳斯达克综合指数需要更长的时间才能达到30,000点。</blockquote> The bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.<blockquote>底线？树不会长到天上。在庆祝近年来市场带来的好运的同时，你绝对不应该变得贪婪。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-07-27 21:17\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nHow the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years<blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数如何在10年内超越道琼斯指数</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8474c2fb4a64f693d66e2d4ffd1d7d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Nasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.<blockquote>纳斯达克3万？这并不像你想象的那么牵强。如果该指数继续以过去12个月的速度上涨，它将在短短两年内（2023年7月）达到这一原本难以想象的里程碑。</blockquote> Welcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s&nbsp;extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.<blockquote>欢迎来到最新的室内游戏，其灵感来自纳斯达克复合材料的非凡性能，使其达到了15,000大关的尖端。该指数最近在2020年3月交易价格低于7,000点。</blockquote> To be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，纳斯达克综合指数是人为高的，因为它在冠状病毒大流行初期的人为低水平。但这只能部分解释纳斯达克能以多快的速度达到30,000。相反，如果我们推断纳斯达克过去五年的回报，它只会略微增加其实现这一目标所需的时间——达到3.3年。</blockquote> A related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.<blockquote>一个相关的室内游戏是想象纳斯达克指数需要多长时间才能超越道琼斯工业平均指数。这需要更长的时间，因为当纳斯达克试图超越道琼斯指数时，道琼斯指数本身就会上涨。但是，假设这两个基准各自的五年增长率持续下去，纳斯达克将在9.9年内（即2031年夏季）超过道琼斯指数。</blockquote> Here’s the catch<blockquote>这是个问题</blockquote> Before you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.<blockquote>在您对这些高纳斯达克综合水平的前景过于兴奋之前，您应该知道有一个问题：这些预测在很大程度上取决于您选择推断未来的时间段。并非所有的预测都是乐观的。</blockquote> For example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.<blockquote>例如，不要关注过去一年或五年的时期，而是使用过去21年以上的时期进行推断。这让你回到了互联网泡沫的顶部，就在泡沫破灭之前，纳斯达克综合指数的价值下跌了近80%。假设纳斯达克自2000年3月高点以来的增长率，它将在14年内触及30,000点大关，并且永远不会超过道琼斯指数——因为这些蓝筹股实际上在过去21年多的时间里表现优于纳斯达克。</blockquote> So the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.<blockquote>因此，这些室内游戏的真正意义应该是在你对市场未来的预测中引入现实检验。近年来，股市的表现远好于我们对未来的预期。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b13c6bd176fff9917be367c0d304aa48\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> What is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the&nbsp;market’s current extreme overvaluation&nbsp;into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a&nbsp;database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).<blockquote>什么是现实？答案取决于各种因素，比如你是否考虑到市场目前的极度高估。但如果你只是简单地将过去外推到未来而不考虑估值，你应该尽可能长时间地关注过去。就美国市场而言，数据至少可以追溯到1793年（由圣克拉拉大学利维商学院名誉教授爱德华·麦夸里提供的数据库提供）。</blockquote> Based on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:<blockquote>根据他的数据库，我对纳斯达克未来几年的表现有以下预测：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Overall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation</li> <li>Expected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per&nbsp;Cleveland Fed model)</li> <li>Nasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per&nbsp;data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French&nbsp;on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)</li> </ul> The net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.<blockquote><ul><li>自1793年以来整体市场年化回报率：年化回报率高于通胀6.1%</li><li>未来十年预期通胀率：1.6%（根据克利夫兰联储模型）</li><li>纳斯达克综合指数相对于整体市场的预期回报率：年化负0.1%（根据Dartmouth教授Ken French自1926年以来关于大盘成长板块表现的数据，该板块最接近主导纳斯达克综合指数的股票）</li></ul>最终结果是：未来几年的年化名义回报率为7.6%。这远低于纳斯达克综合指数过去12个月41.8%的回报率，或过去五年23.8%的年化回报率。</blockquote> In fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.<blockquote>事实上，7.6%的年化回报率并不比纳斯达克综合指数自互联网泡沫顶部以来的平均回报率好多少。按照7.6%的年化增长率计算，该指数需要9.7年才能达到30,000点。请记住，假设市场目前的高估影响了股票的未来回报，那么纳斯达克综合指数需要更长的时间才能达到30,000点。</blockquote> The bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.<blockquote>底线？树不会长到天上。在庆祝近年来市场带来的好运的同时，你绝对不应该变得贪婪。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-15-000-is-near-do-i-hear-30-000-11627374665?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-15-000-is-near-do-i-hear-30-000-11627374665?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138487254","content_text":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nNasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.\nWelcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.\nTo be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.\nA related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.\nHere’s the catch\nBefore you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.\nFor example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.\nSo the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.\n\nWhat is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the market’s current extreme overvaluation into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).\nBased on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:\n\nOverall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation\nExpected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per Cleveland Fed model)\nNasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)\n\nThe net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.\nIn fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.\nThe bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":809783129,"gmtCreate":1627393220261,"gmtModify":1633765446139,"author":{"id":"3568786704362500","authorId":"3568786704362500","name":"Heng8818","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3764044eede2191369830316254f5b6e","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3568786704362500","idStr":"3568786704362500"},"htmlText":"Never","listText":"Never","text":"Never","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809783129","repostId":1138487254,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138487254","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627391824,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138487254?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 21:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138487254","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAG","content":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years<blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数如何在10年内超越道琼斯指数</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8474c2fb4a64f693d66e2d4ffd1d7d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Nasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.<blockquote>纳斯达克3万？这并不像你想象的那么牵强。如果该指数继续以过去12个月的速度上涨，它将在短短两年内（2023年7月）达到这一原本难以想象的里程碑。</blockquote> Welcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s&nbsp;extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.<blockquote>欢迎来到最新的室内游戏，其灵感来自纳斯达克复合材料的非凡性能，使其达到了15,000大关的尖端。该指数最近在2020年3月交易价格低于7,000点。</blockquote> To be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，纳斯达克综合指数是人为高的，因为它在冠状病毒大流行初期的人为低水平。但这只能部分解释纳斯达克能以多快的速度达到30,000。相反，如果我们推断纳斯达克过去五年的回报，它只会略微增加其实现这一目标所需的时间——达到3.3年。</blockquote> A related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.<blockquote>一个相关的室内游戏是想象纳斯达克指数需要多长时间才能超越道琼斯工业平均指数。这需要更长的时间，因为当纳斯达克试图超越道琼斯指数时，道琼斯指数本身就会上涨。但是，假设这两个基准各自的五年增长率持续下去，纳斯达克将在9.9年内（即2031年夏季）超过道琼斯指数。</blockquote> Here’s the catch<blockquote>这是个问题</blockquote> Before you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.<blockquote>在您对这些高纳斯达克综合水平的前景过于兴奋之前，您应该知道有一个问题：这些预测在很大程度上取决于您选择推断未来的时间段。并非所有的预测都是乐观的。</blockquote> For example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.<blockquote>例如，不要关注过去一年或五年的时期，而是使用过去21年以上的时期进行推断。这让你回到了互联网泡沫的顶部，就在泡沫破灭之前，纳斯达克综合指数的价值下跌了近80%。假设纳斯达克自2000年3月高点以来的增长率，它将在14年内触及30,000点大关，并且永远不会超过道琼斯指数——因为这些蓝筹股实际上在过去21年多的时间里表现优于纳斯达克。</blockquote> So the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.<blockquote>因此，这些室内游戏的真正意义应该是在你对市场未来的预测中引入现实检验。近年来，股市的表现远好于我们对未来的预期。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b13c6bd176fff9917be367c0d304aa48\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> What is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the&nbsp;market’s current extreme overvaluation&nbsp;into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a&nbsp;database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).<blockquote>什么是现实？答案取决于各种因素，比如你是否考虑到市场目前的极度高估。但如果你只是简单地将过去外推到未来而不考虑估值，你应该尽可能长时间地关注过去。就美国市场而言，数据至少可以追溯到1793年（由圣克拉拉大学利维商学院名誉教授爱德华·麦夸里提供的数据库提供）。</blockquote> Based on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:<blockquote>根据他的数据库，我对纳斯达克未来几年的表现有以下预测：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Overall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation</li> <li>Expected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per&nbsp;Cleveland Fed model)</li> <li>Nasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per&nbsp;data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French&nbsp;on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)</li> </ul> The net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.<blockquote><ul><li>自1793年以来整体市场年化回报率：年化回报率高于通胀6.1%</li><li>未来十年预期通胀率：1.6%（根据克利夫兰联储模型）</li><li>纳斯达克综合指数相对于整体市场的预期回报率：年化负0.1%（根据Dartmouth教授Ken French自1926年以来关于大盘成长板块表现的数据，该板块最接近主导纳斯达克综合指数的股票）</li></ul>最终结果是：未来几年的年化名义回报率为7.6%。这远低于纳斯达克综合指数过去12个月41.8%的回报率，或过去五年23.8%的年化回报率。</blockquote> In fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.<blockquote>事实上，7.6%的年化回报率并不比纳斯达克综合指数自互联网泡沫顶部以来的平均回报率好多少。按照7.6%的年化增长率计算，该指数需要9.7年才能达到30,000点。请记住，假设市场目前的高估影响了股票的未来回报，那么纳斯达克综合指数需要更长的时间才能达到30,000点。</blockquote> The bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.<blockquote>底线？树不会长到天上。在庆祝近年来市场带来的好运的同时，你绝对不应该变得贪婪。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-07-27 21:17\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nHow the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years<blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数如何在10年内超越道琼斯指数</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8474c2fb4a64f693d66e2d4ffd1d7d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Nasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.<blockquote>纳斯达克3万？这并不像你想象的那么牵强。如果该指数继续以过去12个月的速度上涨，它将在短短两年内（2023年7月）达到这一原本难以想象的里程碑。</blockquote> Welcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s&nbsp;extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.<blockquote>欢迎来到最新的室内游戏，其灵感来自纳斯达克复合材料的非凡性能，使其达到了15,000大关的尖端。该指数最近在2020年3月交易价格低于7,000点。</blockquote> To be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，纳斯达克综合指数是人为高的，因为它在冠状病毒大流行初期的人为低水平。但这只能部分解释纳斯达克能以多快的速度达到30,000。相反，如果我们推断纳斯达克过去五年的回报，它只会略微增加其实现这一目标所需的时间——达到3.3年。</blockquote> A related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.<blockquote>一个相关的室内游戏是想象纳斯达克指数需要多长时间才能超越道琼斯工业平均指数。这需要更长的时间，因为当纳斯达克试图超越道琼斯指数时，道琼斯指数本身就会上涨。但是，假设这两个基准各自的五年增长率持续下去，纳斯达克将在9.9年内（即2031年夏季）超过道琼斯指数。</blockquote> Here’s the catch<blockquote>这是个问题</blockquote> Before you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.<blockquote>在您对这些高纳斯达克综合水平的前景过于兴奋之前，您应该知道有一个问题：这些预测在很大程度上取决于您选择推断未来的时间段。并非所有的预测都是乐观的。</blockquote> For example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.<blockquote>例如，不要关注过去一年或五年的时期，而是使用过去21年以上的时期进行推断。这让你回到了互联网泡沫的顶部，就在泡沫破灭之前，纳斯达克综合指数的价值下跌了近80%。假设纳斯达克自2000年3月高点以来的增长率，它将在14年内触及30,000点大关，并且永远不会超过道琼斯指数——因为这些蓝筹股实际上在过去21年多的时间里表现优于纳斯达克。</blockquote> So the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.<blockquote>因此，这些室内游戏的真正意义应该是在你对市场未来的预测中引入现实检验。近年来，股市的表现远好于我们对未来的预期。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b13c6bd176fff9917be367c0d304aa48\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> What is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the&nbsp;market’s current extreme overvaluation&nbsp;into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a&nbsp;database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).<blockquote>什么是现实？答案取决于各种因素，比如你是否考虑到市场目前的极度高估。但如果你只是简单地将过去外推到未来而不考虑估值，你应该尽可能长时间地关注过去。就美国市场而言，数据至少可以追溯到1793年（由圣克拉拉大学利维商学院名誉教授爱德华·麦夸里提供的数据库提供）。</blockquote> Based on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:<blockquote>根据他的数据库，我对纳斯达克未来几年的表现有以下预测：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Overall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation</li> <li>Expected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per&nbsp;Cleveland Fed model)</li> <li>Nasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per&nbsp;data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French&nbsp;on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)</li> </ul> The net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.<blockquote><ul><li>自1793年以来整体市场年化回报率：年化回报率高于通胀6.1%</li><li>未来十年预期通胀率：1.6%（根据克利夫兰联储模型）</li><li>纳斯达克综合指数相对于整体市场的预期回报率：年化负0.1%（根据Dartmouth教授Ken French自1926年以来关于大盘成长板块表现的数据，该板块最接近主导纳斯达克综合指数的股票）</li></ul>最终结果是：未来几年的年化名义回报率为7.6%。这远低于纳斯达克综合指数过去12个月41.8%的回报率，或过去五年23.8%的年化回报率。</blockquote> In fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.<blockquote>事实上，7.6%的年化回报率并不比纳斯达克综合指数自互联网泡沫顶部以来的平均回报率好多少。按照7.6%的年化增长率计算，该指数需要9.7年才能达到30,000点。请记住，假设市场目前的高估影响了股票的未来回报，那么纳斯达克综合指数需要更长的时间才能达到30,000点。</blockquote> The bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.<blockquote>底线？树不会长到天上。在庆祝近年来市场带来的好运的同时，你绝对不应该变得贪婪。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-15-000-is-near-do-i-hear-30-000-11627374665?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-15-000-is-near-do-i-hear-30-000-11627374665?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138487254","content_text":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nNasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.\nWelcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.\nTo be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.\nA related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.\nHere’s the catch\nBefore you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.\nFor example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.\nSo the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.\n\nWhat is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the market’s current extreme overvaluation into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).\nBased on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:\n\nOverall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation\nExpected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per Cleveland Fed model)\nNasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)\n\nThe net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.\nIn fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.\nThe bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":809710308,"gmtCreate":1627392871804,"gmtModify":1633765454113,"author":{"id":"3578802764506490","authorId":"3578802764506490","name":"Alvinlimsg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da35fe6140e90255fcfc90ff4acbfeb7","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3578802764506490","idStr":"3578802764506490"},"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809710308","repostId":1138487254,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138487254","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627391824,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138487254?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 21:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138487254","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAG","content":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years<blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数如何在10年内超越道琼斯指数</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8474c2fb4a64f693d66e2d4ffd1d7d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Nasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.<blockquote>纳斯达克3万？这并不像你想象的那么牵强。如果该指数继续以过去12个月的速度上涨，它将在短短两年内（2023年7月）达到这一原本难以想象的里程碑。</blockquote> Welcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s&nbsp;extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.<blockquote>欢迎来到最新的室内游戏，其灵感来自纳斯达克复合材料的非凡性能，使其达到了15,000大关的尖端。该指数最近在2020年3月交易价格低于7,000点。</blockquote> To be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，纳斯达克综合指数是人为高的，因为它在冠状病毒大流行初期的人为低水平。但这只能部分解释纳斯达克能以多快的速度达到30,000。相反，如果我们推断纳斯达克过去五年的回报，它只会略微增加其实现这一目标所需的时间——达到3.3年。</blockquote> A related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.<blockquote>一个相关的室内游戏是想象纳斯达克指数需要多长时间才能超越道琼斯工业平均指数。这需要更长的时间，因为当纳斯达克试图超越道琼斯指数时，道琼斯指数本身就会上涨。但是，假设这两个基准各自的五年增长率持续下去，纳斯达克将在9.9年内（即2031年夏季）超过道琼斯指数。</blockquote> Here’s the catch<blockquote>这是个问题</blockquote> Before you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.<blockquote>在您对这些高纳斯达克综合水平的前景过于兴奋之前，您应该知道有一个问题：这些预测在很大程度上取决于您选择推断未来的时间段。并非所有的预测都是乐观的。</blockquote> For example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.<blockquote>例如，不要关注过去一年或五年的时期，而是使用过去21年以上的时期进行推断。这让你回到了互联网泡沫的顶部，就在泡沫破灭之前，纳斯达克综合指数的价值下跌了近80%。假设纳斯达克自2000年3月高点以来的增长率，它将在14年内触及30,000点大关，并且永远不会超过道琼斯指数——因为这些蓝筹股实际上在过去21年多的时间里表现优于纳斯达克。</blockquote> So the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.<blockquote>因此，这些室内游戏的真正意义应该是在你对市场未来的预测中引入现实检验。近年来，股市的表现远好于我们对未来的预期。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b13c6bd176fff9917be367c0d304aa48\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> What is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the&nbsp;market’s current extreme overvaluation&nbsp;into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a&nbsp;database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).<blockquote>什么是现实？答案取决于各种因素，比如你是否考虑到市场目前的极度高估。但如果你只是简单地将过去外推到未来而不考虑估值，你应该尽可能长时间地关注过去。就美国市场而言，数据至少可以追溯到1793年（由圣克拉拉大学利维商学院名誉教授爱德华·麦夸里提供的数据库提供）。</blockquote> Based on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:<blockquote>根据他的数据库，我对纳斯达克未来几年的表现有以下预测：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Overall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation</li> <li>Expected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per&nbsp;Cleveland Fed model)</li> <li>Nasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per&nbsp;data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French&nbsp;on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)</li> </ul> The net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.<blockquote><ul><li>自1793年以来整体市场年化回报率：年化回报率高于通胀6.1%</li><li>未来十年预期通胀率：1.6%（根据克利夫兰联储模型）</li><li>纳斯达克综合指数相对于整体市场的预期回报率：年化负0.1%（根据Dartmouth教授Ken French自1926年以来关于大盘成长板块表现的数据，该板块最接近主导纳斯达克综合指数的股票）</li></ul>最终结果是：未来几年的年化名义回报率为7.6%。这远低于纳斯达克综合指数过去12个月41.8%的回报率，或过去五年23.8%的年化回报率。</blockquote> In fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.<blockquote>事实上，7.6%的年化回报率并不比纳斯达克综合指数自互联网泡沫顶部以来的平均回报率好多少。按照7.6%的年化增长率计算，该指数需要9.7年才能达到30,000点。请记住，假设市场目前的高估影响了股票的未来回报，那么纳斯达克综合指数需要更长的时间才能达到30,000点。</blockquote> The bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.<blockquote>底线？树不会长到天上。在庆祝近年来市场带来的好运的同时，你绝对不应该变得贪婪。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-07-27 21:17\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nHow the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years<blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数如何在10年内超越道琼斯指数</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8474c2fb4a64f693d66e2d4ffd1d7d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Nasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.<blockquote>纳斯达克3万？这并不像你想象的那么牵强。如果该指数继续以过去12个月的速度上涨，它将在短短两年内（2023年7月）达到这一原本难以想象的里程碑。</blockquote> Welcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s&nbsp;extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.<blockquote>欢迎来到最新的室内游戏，其灵感来自纳斯达克复合材料的非凡性能，使其达到了15,000大关的尖端。该指数最近在2020年3月交易价格低于7,000点。</blockquote> To be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，纳斯达克综合指数是人为高的，因为它在冠状病毒大流行初期的人为低水平。但这只能部分解释纳斯达克能以多快的速度达到30,000。相反，如果我们推断纳斯达克过去五年的回报，它只会略微增加其实现这一目标所需的时间——达到3.3年。</blockquote> A related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.<blockquote>一个相关的室内游戏是想象纳斯达克指数需要多长时间才能超越道琼斯工业平均指数。这需要更长的时间，因为当纳斯达克试图超越道琼斯指数时，道琼斯指数本身就会上涨。但是，假设这两个基准各自的五年增长率持续下去，纳斯达克将在9.9年内（即2031年夏季）超过道琼斯指数。</blockquote> Here’s the catch<blockquote>这是个问题</blockquote> Before you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.<blockquote>在您对这些高纳斯达克综合水平的前景过于兴奋之前，您应该知道有一个问题：这些预测在很大程度上取决于您选择推断未来的时间段。并非所有的预测都是乐观的。</blockquote> For example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.<blockquote>例如，不要关注过去一年或五年的时期，而是使用过去21年以上的时期进行推断。这让你回到了互联网泡沫的顶部，就在泡沫破灭之前，纳斯达克综合指数的价值下跌了近80%。假设纳斯达克自2000年3月高点以来的增长率，它将在14年内触及30,000点大关，并且永远不会超过道琼斯指数——因为这些蓝筹股实际上在过去21年多的时间里表现优于纳斯达克。</blockquote> So the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.<blockquote>因此，这些室内游戏的真正意义应该是在你对市场未来的预测中引入现实检验。近年来，股市的表现远好于我们对未来的预期。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b13c6bd176fff9917be367c0d304aa48\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> What is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the&nbsp;market’s current extreme overvaluation&nbsp;into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a&nbsp;database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).<blockquote>什么是现实？答案取决于各种因素，比如你是否考虑到市场目前的极度高估。但如果你只是简单地将过去外推到未来而不考虑估值，你应该尽可能长时间地关注过去。就美国市场而言，数据至少可以追溯到1793年（由圣克拉拉大学利维商学院名誉教授爱德华·麦夸里提供的数据库提供）。</blockquote> Based on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:<blockquote>根据他的数据库，我对纳斯达克未来几年的表现有以下预测：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Overall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation</li> <li>Expected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per&nbsp;Cleveland Fed model)</li> <li>Nasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per&nbsp;data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French&nbsp;on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)</li> </ul> The net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.<blockquote><ul><li>自1793年以来整体市场年化回报率：年化回报率高于通胀6.1%</li><li>未来十年预期通胀率：1.6%（根据克利夫兰联储模型）</li><li>纳斯达克综合指数相对于整体市场的预期回报率：年化负0.1%（根据Dartmouth教授Ken French自1926年以来关于大盘成长板块表现的数据，该板块最接近主导纳斯达克综合指数的股票）</li></ul>最终结果是：未来几年的年化名义回报率为7.6%。这远低于纳斯达克综合指数过去12个月41.8%的回报率，或过去五年23.8%的年化回报率。</blockquote> In fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.<blockquote>事实上，7.6%的年化回报率并不比纳斯达克综合指数自互联网泡沫顶部以来的平均回报率好多少。按照7.6%的年化增长率计算，该指数需要9.7年才能达到30,000点。请记住，假设市场目前的高估影响了股票的未来回报，那么纳斯达克综合指数需要更长的时间才能达到30,000点。</blockquote> The bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.<blockquote>底线？树不会长到天上。在庆祝近年来市场带来的好运的同时，你绝对不应该变得贪婪。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-15-000-is-near-do-i-hear-30-000-11627374665?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-15-000-is-near-do-i-hear-30-000-11627374665?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138487254","content_text":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nNasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.\nWelcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.\nTo be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.\nA related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.\nHere’s the catch\nBefore you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.\nFor example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.\nSo the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.\n\nWhat is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the market’s current extreme overvaluation into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).\nBased on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:\n\nOverall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation\nExpected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per Cleveland Fed model)\nNasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)\n\nThe net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.\nIn fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.\nThe bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5352065,"gmtCreate":1627430752563,"gmtModify":1635219962463,"authorId":3570667103076911,"author":{"id":3570667103076911,"idStr":"3570667103076911","authorId":3570667103076911,"name":"Lewis1983","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/099e9d25c1e6a93e2189500df30fc185","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":809710308,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Hi","text":"Hi","html":"Hi"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":809735010,"gmtCreate":1627392802630,"gmtModify":1631889928103,"author":{"id":"3586907191866715","authorId":"3586907191866715","name":"MattMartin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69402f0b380884d842e640f724fb7467","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3586907191866715","idStr":"3586907191866715"},"htmlText":"Wowowow comment and like!!","listText":"Wowowow comment and like!!","text":"Wowowow comment and like!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809735010","repostId":1138487254,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138487254","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627391824,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138487254?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 21:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138487254","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAG","content":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years<blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数如何在10年内超越道琼斯指数</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8474c2fb4a64f693d66e2d4ffd1d7d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Nasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.<blockquote>纳斯达克3万？这并不像你想象的那么牵强。如果该指数继续以过去12个月的速度上涨，它将在短短两年内（2023年7月）达到这一原本难以想象的里程碑。</blockquote> Welcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s&nbsp;extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.<blockquote>欢迎来到最新的室内游戏，其灵感来自纳斯达克复合材料的非凡性能，使其达到了15,000大关的尖端。该指数最近在2020年3月交易价格低于7,000点。</blockquote> To be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，纳斯达克综合指数是人为高的，因为它在冠状病毒大流行初期的人为低水平。但这只能部分解释纳斯达克能以多快的速度达到30,000。相反，如果我们推断纳斯达克过去五年的回报，它只会略微增加其实现这一目标所需的时间——达到3.3年。</blockquote> A related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.<blockquote>一个相关的室内游戏是想象纳斯达克指数需要多长时间才能超越道琼斯工业平均指数。这需要更长的时间，因为当纳斯达克试图超越道琼斯指数时，道琼斯指数本身就会上涨。但是，假设这两个基准各自的五年增长率持续下去，纳斯达克将在9.9年内（即2031年夏季）超过道琼斯指数。</blockquote> Here’s the catch<blockquote>这是个问题</blockquote> Before you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.<blockquote>在您对这些高纳斯达克综合水平的前景过于兴奋之前，您应该知道有一个问题：这些预测在很大程度上取决于您选择推断未来的时间段。并非所有的预测都是乐观的。</blockquote> For example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.<blockquote>例如，不要关注过去一年或五年的时期，而是使用过去21年以上的时期进行推断。这让你回到了互联网泡沫的顶部，就在泡沫破灭之前，纳斯达克综合指数的价值下跌了近80%。假设纳斯达克自2000年3月高点以来的增长率，它将在14年内触及30,000点大关，并且永远不会超过道琼斯指数——因为这些蓝筹股实际上在过去21年多的时间里表现优于纳斯达克。</blockquote> So the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.<blockquote>因此，这些室内游戏的真正意义应该是在你对市场未来的预测中引入现实检验。近年来，股市的表现远好于我们对未来的预期。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b13c6bd176fff9917be367c0d304aa48\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> What is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the&nbsp;market’s current extreme overvaluation&nbsp;into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a&nbsp;database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).<blockquote>什么是现实？答案取决于各种因素，比如你是否考虑到市场目前的极度高估。但如果你只是简单地将过去外推到未来而不考虑估值，你应该尽可能长时间地关注过去。就美国市场而言，数据至少可以追溯到1793年（由圣克拉拉大学利维商学院名誉教授爱德华·麦夸里提供的数据库提供）。</blockquote> Based on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:<blockquote>根据他的数据库，我对纳斯达克未来几年的表现有以下预测：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Overall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation</li> <li>Expected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per&nbsp;Cleveland Fed model)</li> <li>Nasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per&nbsp;data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French&nbsp;on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)</li> </ul> The net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.<blockquote><ul><li>自1793年以来整体市场年化回报率：年化回报率高于通胀6.1%</li><li>未来十年预期通胀率：1.6%（根据克利夫兰联储模型）</li><li>纳斯达克综合指数相对于整体市场的预期回报率：年化负0.1%（根据Dartmouth教授Ken French自1926年以来关于大盘成长板块表现的数据，该板块最接近主导纳斯达克综合指数的股票）</li></ul>最终结果是：未来几年的年化名义回报率为7.6%。这远低于纳斯达克综合指数过去12个月41.8%的回报率，或过去五年23.8%的年化回报率。</blockquote> In fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.<blockquote>事实上，7.6%的年化回报率并不比纳斯达克综合指数自互联网泡沫顶部以来的平均回报率好多少。按照7.6%的年化增长率计算，该指数需要9.7年才能达到30,000点。请记住，假设市场目前的高估影响了股票的未来回报，那么纳斯达克综合指数需要更长的时间才能达到30,000点。</blockquote> The bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.<blockquote>底线？树不会长到天上。在庆祝近年来市场带来的好运的同时，你绝对不应该变得贪婪。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-07-27 21:17\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nHow the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years<blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数如何在10年内超越道琼斯指数</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8474c2fb4a64f693d66e2d4ffd1d7d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Nasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.<blockquote>纳斯达克3万？这并不像你想象的那么牵强。如果该指数继续以过去12个月的速度上涨，它将在短短两年内（2023年7月）达到这一原本难以想象的里程碑。</blockquote> Welcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s&nbsp;extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.<blockquote>欢迎来到最新的室内游戏，其灵感来自纳斯达克复合材料的非凡性能，使其达到了15,000大关的尖端。该指数最近在2020年3月交易价格低于7,000点。</blockquote> To be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，纳斯达克综合指数是人为高的，因为它在冠状病毒大流行初期的人为低水平。但这只能部分解释纳斯达克能以多快的速度达到30,000。相反，如果我们推断纳斯达克过去五年的回报，它只会略微增加其实现这一目标所需的时间——达到3.3年。</blockquote> A related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.<blockquote>一个相关的室内游戏是想象纳斯达克指数需要多长时间才能超越道琼斯工业平均指数。这需要更长的时间，因为当纳斯达克试图超越道琼斯指数时，道琼斯指数本身就会上涨。但是，假设这两个基准各自的五年增长率持续下去，纳斯达克将在9.9年内（即2031年夏季）超过道琼斯指数。</blockquote> Here’s the catch<blockquote>这是个问题</blockquote> Before you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.<blockquote>在您对这些高纳斯达克综合水平的前景过于兴奋之前，您应该知道有一个问题：这些预测在很大程度上取决于您选择推断未来的时间段。并非所有的预测都是乐观的。</blockquote> For example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.<blockquote>例如，不要关注过去一年或五年的时期，而是使用过去21年以上的时期进行推断。这让你回到了互联网泡沫的顶部，就在泡沫破灭之前，纳斯达克综合指数的价值下跌了近80%。假设纳斯达克自2000年3月高点以来的增长率，它将在14年内触及30,000点大关，并且永远不会超过道琼斯指数——因为这些蓝筹股实际上在过去21年多的时间里表现优于纳斯达克。</blockquote> So the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.<blockquote>因此，这些室内游戏的真正意义应该是在你对市场未来的预测中引入现实检验。近年来，股市的表现远好于我们对未来的预期。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b13c6bd176fff9917be367c0d304aa48\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> What is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the&nbsp;market’s current extreme overvaluation&nbsp;into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a&nbsp;database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).<blockquote>什么是现实？答案取决于各种因素，比如你是否考虑到市场目前的极度高估。但如果你只是简单地将过去外推到未来而不考虑估值，你应该尽可能长时间地关注过去。就美国市场而言，数据至少可以追溯到1793年（由圣克拉拉大学利维商学院名誉教授爱德华·麦夸里提供的数据库提供）。</blockquote> Based on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:<blockquote>根据他的数据库，我对纳斯达克未来几年的表现有以下预测：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Overall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation</li> <li>Expected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per&nbsp;Cleveland Fed model)</li> <li>Nasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per&nbsp;data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French&nbsp;on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)</li> </ul> The net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.<blockquote><ul><li>自1793年以来整体市场年化回报率：年化回报率高于通胀6.1%</li><li>未来十年预期通胀率：1.6%（根据克利夫兰联储模型）</li><li>纳斯达克综合指数相对于整体市场的预期回报率：年化负0.1%（根据Dartmouth教授Ken French自1926年以来关于大盘成长板块表现的数据，该板块最接近主导纳斯达克综合指数的股票）</li></ul>最终结果是：未来几年的年化名义回报率为7.6%。这远低于纳斯达克综合指数过去12个月41.8%的回报率，或过去五年23.8%的年化回报率。</blockquote> In fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.<blockquote>事实上，7.6%的年化回报率并不比纳斯达克综合指数自互联网泡沫顶部以来的平均回报率好多少。按照7.6%的年化增长率计算，该指数需要9.7年才能达到30,000点。请记住，假设市场目前的高估影响了股票的未来回报，那么纳斯达克综合指数需要更长的时间才能达到30,000点。</blockquote> The bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.<blockquote>底线？树不会长到天上。在庆祝近年来市场带来的好运的同时，你绝对不应该变得贪婪。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-15-000-is-near-do-i-hear-30-000-11627374665?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-15-000-is-near-do-i-hear-30-000-11627374665?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138487254","content_text":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nNasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.\nWelcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.\nTo be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.\nA related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.\nHere’s the catch\nBefore you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.\nFor example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.\nSo the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.\n\nWhat is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the market’s current extreme overvaluation into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).\nBased on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:\n\nOverall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation\nExpected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per Cleveland Fed model)\nNasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)\n\nThe net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.\nIn fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.\nThe bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5347382,"gmtCreate":1627393142031,"gmtModify":1631889928116,"authorId":3576445214043888,"author":{"id":3576445214043888,"idStr":"3576445214043888","authorId":3576445214043888,"name":"97fca4a","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":809735010,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Liked","text":"Liked","html":"Liked"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":809738901,"gmtCreate":1627392697903,"gmtModify":1633765458225,"author":{"id":"3576278607547570","authorId":"3576278607547570","name":"Calvinchin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9656b958bb6c4643873a171eebbbc8f","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3576278607547570","idStr":"3576278607547570"},"htmlText":"👌🏼 yes&nbsp;","listText":"👌🏼 yes&nbsp;","text":"👌🏼 yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809738901","repostId":1138487254,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138487254","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627391824,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138487254?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 21:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138487254","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAG","content":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years<blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数如何在10年内超越道琼斯指数</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8474c2fb4a64f693d66e2d4ffd1d7d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Nasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.<blockquote>纳斯达克3万？这并不像你想象的那么牵强。如果该指数继续以过去12个月的速度上涨，它将在短短两年内（2023年7月）达到这一原本难以想象的里程碑。</blockquote> Welcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s&nbsp;extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.<blockquote>欢迎来到最新的室内游戏，其灵感来自纳斯达克复合材料的非凡性能，使其达到了15,000大关的尖端。该指数最近在2020年3月交易价格低于7,000点。</blockquote> To be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，纳斯达克综合指数是人为高的，因为它在冠状病毒大流行初期的人为低水平。但这只能部分解释纳斯达克能以多快的速度达到30,000。相反，如果我们推断纳斯达克过去五年的回报，它只会略微增加其实现这一目标所需的时间——达到3.3年。</blockquote> A related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.<blockquote>一个相关的室内游戏是想象纳斯达克指数需要多长时间才能超越道琼斯工业平均指数。这需要更长的时间，因为当纳斯达克试图超越道琼斯指数时，道琼斯指数本身就会上涨。但是，假设这两个基准各自的五年增长率持续下去，纳斯达克将在9.9年内（即2031年夏季）超过道琼斯指数。</blockquote> Here’s the catch<blockquote>这是个问题</blockquote> Before you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.<blockquote>在您对这些高纳斯达克综合水平的前景过于兴奋之前，您应该知道有一个问题：这些预测在很大程度上取决于您选择推断未来的时间段。并非所有的预测都是乐观的。</blockquote> For example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.<blockquote>例如，不要关注过去一年或五年的时期，而是使用过去21年以上的时期进行推断。这让你回到了互联网泡沫的顶部，就在泡沫破灭之前，纳斯达克综合指数的价值下跌了近80%。假设纳斯达克自2000年3月高点以来的增长率，它将在14年内触及30,000点大关，并且永远不会超过道琼斯指数——因为这些蓝筹股实际上在过去21年多的时间里表现优于纳斯达克。</blockquote> So the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.<blockquote>因此，这些室内游戏的真正意义应该是在你对市场未来的预测中引入现实检验。近年来，股市的表现远好于我们对未来的预期。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b13c6bd176fff9917be367c0d304aa48\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> What is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the&nbsp;market’s current extreme overvaluation&nbsp;into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a&nbsp;database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).<blockquote>什么是现实？答案取决于各种因素，比如你是否考虑到市场目前的极度高估。但如果你只是简单地将过去外推到未来而不考虑估值，你应该尽可能长时间地关注过去。就美国市场而言，数据至少可以追溯到1793年（由圣克拉拉大学利维商学院名誉教授爱德华·麦夸里提供的数据库提供）。</blockquote> Based on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:<blockquote>根据他的数据库，我对纳斯达克未来几年的表现有以下预测：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Overall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation</li> <li>Expected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per&nbsp;Cleveland Fed model)</li> <li>Nasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per&nbsp;data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French&nbsp;on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)</li> </ul> The net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.<blockquote><ul><li>自1793年以来整体市场年化回报率：年化回报率高于通胀6.1%</li><li>未来十年预期通胀率：1.6%（根据克利夫兰联储模型）</li><li>纳斯达克综合指数相对于整体市场的预期回报率：年化负0.1%（根据Dartmouth教授Ken French自1926年以来关于大盘成长板块表现的数据，该板块最接近主导纳斯达克综合指数的股票）</li></ul>最终结果是：未来几年的年化名义回报率为7.6%。这远低于纳斯达克综合指数过去12个月41.8%的回报率，或过去五年23.8%的年化回报率。</blockquote> In fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.<blockquote>事实上，7.6%的年化回报率并不比纳斯达克综合指数自互联网泡沫顶部以来的平均回报率好多少。按照7.6%的年化增长率计算，该指数需要9.7年才能达到30,000点。请记住，假设市场目前的高估影响了股票的未来回报，那么纳斯达克综合指数需要更长的时间才能达到30,000点。</blockquote> The bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.<blockquote>底线？树不会长到天上。在庆祝近年来市场带来的好运的同时，你绝对不应该变得贪婪。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-07-27 21:17\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nHow the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years<blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数如何在10年内超越道琼斯指数</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8474c2fb4a64f693d66e2d4ffd1d7d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Nasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.<blockquote>纳斯达克3万？这并不像你想象的那么牵强。如果该指数继续以过去12个月的速度上涨，它将在短短两年内（2023年7月）达到这一原本难以想象的里程碑。</blockquote> Welcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s&nbsp;extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.<blockquote>欢迎来到最新的室内游戏，其灵感来自纳斯达克复合材料的非凡性能，使其达到了15,000大关的尖端。该指数最近在2020年3月交易价格低于7,000点。</blockquote> To be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，纳斯达克综合指数是人为高的，因为它在冠状病毒大流行初期的人为低水平。但这只能部分解释纳斯达克能以多快的速度达到30,000。相反，如果我们推断纳斯达克过去五年的回报，它只会略微增加其实现这一目标所需的时间——达到3.3年。</blockquote> A related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.<blockquote>一个相关的室内游戏是想象纳斯达克指数需要多长时间才能超越道琼斯工业平均指数。这需要更长的时间，因为当纳斯达克试图超越道琼斯指数时，道琼斯指数本身就会上涨。但是，假设这两个基准各自的五年增长率持续下去，纳斯达克将在9.9年内（即2031年夏季）超过道琼斯指数。</blockquote> Here’s the catch<blockquote>这是个问题</blockquote> Before you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.<blockquote>在您对这些高纳斯达克综合水平的前景过于兴奋之前，您应该知道有一个问题：这些预测在很大程度上取决于您选择推断未来的时间段。并非所有的预测都是乐观的。</blockquote> For example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.<blockquote>例如，不要关注过去一年或五年的时期，而是使用过去21年以上的时期进行推断。这让你回到了互联网泡沫的顶部，就在泡沫破灭之前，纳斯达克综合指数的价值下跌了近80%。假设纳斯达克自2000年3月高点以来的增长率，它将在14年内触及30,000点大关，并且永远不会超过道琼斯指数——因为这些蓝筹股实际上在过去21年多的时间里表现优于纳斯达克。</blockquote> So the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.<blockquote>因此，这些室内游戏的真正意义应该是在你对市场未来的预测中引入现实检验。近年来，股市的表现远好于我们对未来的预期。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b13c6bd176fff9917be367c0d304aa48\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> What is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the&nbsp;market’s current extreme overvaluation&nbsp;into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a&nbsp;database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).<blockquote>什么是现实？答案取决于各种因素，比如你是否考虑到市场目前的极度高估。但如果你只是简单地将过去外推到未来而不考虑估值，你应该尽可能长时间地关注过去。就美国市场而言，数据至少可以追溯到1793年（由圣克拉拉大学利维商学院名誉教授爱德华·麦夸里提供的数据库提供）。</blockquote> Based on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:<blockquote>根据他的数据库，我对纳斯达克未来几年的表现有以下预测：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Overall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation</li> <li>Expected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per&nbsp;Cleveland Fed model)</li> <li>Nasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per&nbsp;data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French&nbsp;on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)</li> </ul> The net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.<blockquote><ul><li>自1793年以来整体市场年化回报率：年化回报率高于通胀6.1%</li><li>未来十年预期通胀率：1.6%（根据克利夫兰联储模型）</li><li>纳斯达克综合指数相对于整体市场的预期回报率：年化负0.1%（根据Dartmouth教授Ken French自1926年以来关于大盘成长板块表现的数据，该板块最接近主导纳斯达克综合指数的股票）</li></ul>最终结果是：未来几年的年化名义回报率为7.6%。这远低于纳斯达克综合指数过去12个月41.8%的回报率，或过去五年23.8%的年化回报率。</blockquote> In fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.<blockquote>事实上，7.6%的年化回报率并不比纳斯达克综合指数自互联网泡沫顶部以来的平均回报率好多少。按照7.6%的年化增长率计算，该指数需要9.7年才能达到30,000点。请记住，假设市场目前的高估影响了股票的未来回报，那么纳斯达克综合指数需要更长的时间才能达到30,000点。</blockquote> The bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.<blockquote>底线？树不会长到天上。在庆祝近年来市场带来的好运的同时，你绝对不应该变得贪婪。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-15-000-is-near-do-i-hear-30-000-11627374665?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-15-000-is-near-do-i-hear-30-000-11627374665?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138487254","content_text":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nNasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.\nWelcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.\nTo be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.\nA related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.\nHere’s the catch\nBefore you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.\nFor example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.\nSo the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.\n\nWhat is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the market’s current extreme overvaluation into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).\nBased on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:\n\nOverall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation\nExpected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per Cleveland Fed model)\nNasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)\n\nThe net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.\nIn fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.\nThe bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5347373,"gmtCreate":1627393118649,"gmtModify":1635220267788,"authorId":3582349066499647,"author":{"id":3582349066499647,"idStr":"3582349066499647","authorId":3582349066499647,"name":"Huatcel","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6dc5ff854a615f554459ab92c2e24","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":809738901,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Hihi","text":"Hihi","html":"Hihi"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":809733544,"gmtCreate":1627392623888,"gmtModify":1633765459176,"author":{"id":"3575034880210493","authorId":"3575034880210493","name":"CTLT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7281d38ef945e595e240f73b0b57e538","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3575034880210493","idStr":"3575034880210493"},"htmlText":"So can buy now?","listText":"So can buy now?","text":"So can buy now?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809733544","repostId":1138487254,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138487254","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627391824,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138487254?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 21:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138487254","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAG","content":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years<blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数如何在10年内超越道琼斯指数</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8474c2fb4a64f693d66e2d4ffd1d7d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Nasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.<blockquote>纳斯达克3万？这并不像你想象的那么牵强。如果该指数继续以过去12个月的速度上涨，它将在短短两年内（2023年7月）达到这一原本难以想象的里程碑。</blockquote> Welcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s&nbsp;extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.<blockquote>欢迎来到最新的室内游戏，其灵感来自纳斯达克复合材料的非凡性能，使其达到了15,000大关的尖端。该指数最近在2020年3月交易价格低于7,000点。</blockquote> To be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，纳斯达克综合指数是人为高的，因为它在冠状病毒大流行初期的人为低水平。但这只能部分解释纳斯达克能以多快的速度达到30,000。相反，如果我们推断纳斯达克过去五年的回报，它只会略微增加其实现这一目标所需的时间——达到3.3年。</blockquote> A related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.<blockquote>一个相关的室内游戏是想象纳斯达克指数需要多长时间才能超越道琼斯工业平均指数。这需要更长的时间，因为当纳斯达克试图超越道琼斯指数时，道琼斯指数本身就会上涨。但是，假设这两个基准各自的五年增长率持续下去，纳斯达克将在9.9年内（即2031年夏季）超过道琼斯指数。</blockquote> Here’s the catch<blockquote>这是个问题</blockquote> Before you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.<blockquote>在您对这些高纳斯达克综合水平的前景过于兴奋之前，您应该知道有一个问题：这些预测在很大程度上取决于您选择推断未来的时间段。并非所有的预测都是乐观的。</blockquote> For example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.<blockquote>例如，不要关注过去一年或五年的时期，而是使用过去21年以上的时期进行推断。这让你回到了互联网泡沫的顶部，就在泡沫破灭之前，纳斯达克综合指数的价值下跌了近80%。假设纳斯达克自2000年3月高点以来的增长率，它将在14年内触及30,000点大关，并且永远不会超过道琼斯指数——因为这些蓝筹股实际上在过去21年多的时间里表现优于纳斯达克。</blockquote> So the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.<blockquote>因此，这些室内游戏的真正意义应该是在你对市场未来的预测中引入现实检验。近年来，股市的表现远好于我们对未来的预期。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b13c6bd176fff9917be367c0d304aa48\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> What is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the&nbsp;market’s current extreme overvaluation&nbsp;into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a&nbsp;database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).<blockquote>什么是现实？答案取决于各种因素，比如你是否考虑到市场目前的极度高估。但如果你只是简单地将过去外推到未来而不考虑估值，你应该尽可能长时间地关注过去。就美国市场而言，数据至少可以追溯到1793年（由圣克拉拉大学利维商学院名誉教授爱德华·麦夸里提供的数据库提供）。</blockquote> Based on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:<blockquote>根据他的数据库，我对纳斯达克未来几年的表现有以下预测：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Overall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation</li> <li>Expected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per&nbsp;Cleveland Fed model)</li> <li>Nasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per&nbsp;data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French&nbsp;on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)</li> </ul> The net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.<blockquote><ul><li>自1793年以来整体市场年化回报率：年化回报率高于通胀6.1%</li><li>未来十年预期通胀率：1.6%（根据克利夫兰联储模型）</li><li>纳斯达克综合指数相对于整体市场的预期回报率：年化负0.1%（根据Dartmouth教授Ken French自1926年以来关于大盘成长板块表现的数据，该板块最接近主导纳斯达克综合指数的股票）</li></ul>最终结果是：未来几年的年化名义回报率为7.6%。这远低于纳斯达克综合指数过去12个月41.8%的回报率，或过去五年23.8%的年化回报率。</blockquote> In fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.<blockquote>事实上，7.6%的年化回报率并不比纳斯达克综合指数自互联网泡沫顶部以来的平均回报率好多少。按照7.6%的年化增长率计算，该指数需要9.7年才能达到30,000点。请记住，假设市场目前的高估影响了股票的未来回报，那么纳斯达克综合指数需要更长的时间才能达到30,000点。</blockquote> The bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.<blockquote>底线？树不会长到天上。在庆祝近年来市场带来的好运的同时，你绝对不应该变得贪婪。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-07-27 21:17\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nHow the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years<blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数如何在10年内超越道琼斯指数</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8474c2fb4a64f693d66e2d4ffd1d7d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Nasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.<blockquote>纳斯达克3万？这并不像你想象的那么牵强。如果该指数继续以过去12个月的速度上涨，它将在短短两年内（2023年7月）达到这一原本难以想象的里程碑。</blockquote> Welcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s&nbsp;extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.<blockquote>欢迎来到最新的室内游戏，其灵感来自纳斯达克复合材料的非凡性能，使其达到了15,000大关的尖端。该指数最近在2020年3月交易价格低于7,000点。</blockquote> To be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，纳斯达克综合指数是人为高的，因为它在冠状病毒大流行初期的人为低水平。但这只能部分解释纳斯达克能以多快的速度达到30,000。相反，如果我们推断纳斯达克过去五年的回报，它只会略微增加其实现这一目标所需的时间——达到3.3年。</blockquote> A related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.<blockquote>一个相关的室内游戏是想象纳斯达克指数需要多长时间才能超越道琼斯工业平均指数。这需要更长的时间，因为当纳斯达克试图超越道琼斯指数时，道琼斯指数本身就会上涨。但是，假设这两个基准各自的五年增长率持续下去，纳斯达克将在9.9年内（即2031年夏季）超过道琼斯指数。</blockquote> Here’s the catch<blockquote>这是个问题</blockquote> Before you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.<blockquote>在您对这些高纳斯达克综合水平的前景过于兴奋之前，您应该知道有一个问题：这些预测在很大程度上取决于您选择推断未来的时间段。并非所有的预测都是乐观的。</blockquote> For example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.<blockquote>例如，不要关注过去一年或五年的时期，而是使用过去21年以上的时期进行推断。这让你回到了互联网泡沫的顶部，就在泡沫破灭之前，纳斯达克综合指数的价值下跌了近80%。假设纳斯达克自2000年3月高点以来的增长率，它将在14年内触及30,000点大关，并且永远不会超过道琼斯指数——因为这些蓝筹股实际上在过去21年多的时间里表现优于纳斯达克。</blockquote> So the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.<blockquote>因此，这些室内游戏的真正意义应该是在你对市场未来的预测中引入现实检验。近年来，股市的表现远好于我们对未来的预期。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b13c6bd176fff9917be367c0d304aa48\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> What is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the&nbsp;market’s current extreme overvaluation&nbsp;into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a&nbsp;database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).<blockquote>什么是现实？答案取决于各种因素，比如你是否考虑到市场目前的极度高估。但如果你只是简单地将过去外推到未来而不考虑估值，你应该尽可能长时间地关注过去。就美国市场而言，数据至少可以追溯到1793年（由圣克拉拉大学利维商学院名誉教授爱德华·麦夸里提供的数据库提供）。</blockquote> Based on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:<blockquote>根据他的数据库，我对纳斯达克未来几年的表现有以下预测：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Overall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation</li> <li>Expected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per&nbsp;Cleveland Fed model)</li> <li>Nasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per&nbsp;data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French&nbsp;on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)</li> </ul> The net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.<blockquote><ul><li>自1793年以来整体市场年化回报率：年化回报率高于通胀6.1%</li><li>未来十年预期通胀率：1.6%（根据克利夫兰联储模型）</li><li>纳斯达克综合指数相对于整体市场的预期回报率：年化负0.1%（根据Dartmouth教授Ken French自1926年以来关于大盘成长板块表现的数据，该板块最接近主导纳斯达克综合指数的股票）</li></ul>最终结果是：未来几年的年化名义回报率为7.6%。这远低于纳斯达克综合指数过去12个月41.8%的回报率，或过去五年23.8%的年化回报率。</blockquote> In fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.<blockquote>事实上，7.6%的年化回报率并不比纳斯达克综合指数自互联网泡沫顶部以来的平均回报率好多少。按照7.6%的年化增长率计算，该指数需要9.7年才能达到30,000点。请记住，假设市场目前的高估影响了股票的未来回报，那么纳斯达克综合指数需要更长的时间才能达到30,000点。</blockquote> The bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.<blockquote>底线？树不会长到天上。在庆祝近年来市场带来的好运的同时，你绝对不应该变得贪婪。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-15-000-is-near-do-i-hear-30-000-11627374665?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-15-000-is-near-do-i-hear-30-000-11627374665?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138487254","content_text":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nNasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.\nWelcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.\nTo be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.\nA related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.\nHere’s the catch\nBefore you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.\nFor example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.\nSo the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.\n\nWhat is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the market’s current extreme overvaluation into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).\nBased on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:\n\nOverall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation\nExpected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per Cleveland Fed model)\nNasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)\n\nThe net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.\nIn fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.\nThe bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5347259,"gmtCreate":1627392687436,"gmtModify":1635220275927,"authorId":3576278607547570,"author":{"id":3576278607547570,"idStr":"3576278607547570","authorId":3576278607547570,"name":"Calvinchin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9656b958bb6c4643873a171eebbbc8f","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":809733544,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":809733613,"gmtCreate":1627392606632,"gmtModify":1633765459396,"author":{"id":"3573821515865359","authorId":"3573821515865359","name":"JHx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54eb39bebd911124a59d7bf934977d25","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3573821515865359","idStr":"3573821515865359"},"htmlText":"Nani","listText":"Nani","text":"Nani","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809733613","repostId":1138487254,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138487254","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627391824,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138487254?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 21:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138487254","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAG","content":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years<blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数如何在10年内超越道琼斯指数</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8474c2fb4a64f693d66e2d4ffd1d7d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Nasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.<blockquote>纳斯达克3万？这并不像你想象的那么牵强。如果该指数继续以过去12个月的速度上涨，它将在短短两年内（2023年7月）达到这一原本难以想象的里程碑。</blockquote> Welcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s&nbsp;extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.<blockquote>欢迎来到最新的室内游戏，其灵感来自纳斯达克复合材料的非凡性能，使其达到了15,000大关的尖端。该指数最近在2020年3月交易价格低于7,000点。</blockquote> To be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，纳斯达克综合指数是人为高的，因为它在冠状病毒大流行初期的人为低水平。但这只能部分解释纳斯达克能以多快的速度达到30,000。相反，如果我们推断纳斯达克过去五年的回报，它只会略微增加其实现这一目标所需的时间——达到3.3年。</blockquote> A related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.<blockquote>一个相关的室内游戏是想象纳斯达克指数需要多长时间才能超越道琼斯工业平均指数。这需要更长的时间，因为当纳斯达克试图超越道琼斯指数时，道琼斯指数本身就会上涨。但是，假设这两个基准各自的五年增长率持续下去，纳斯达克将在9.9年内（即2031年夏季）超过道琼斯指数。</blockquote> Here’s the catch<blockquote>这是个问题</blockquote> Before you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.<blockquote>在您对这些高纳斯达克综合水平的前景过于兴奋之前，您应该知道有一个问题：这些预测在很大程度上取决于您选择推断未来的时间段。并非所有的预测都是乐观的。</blockquote> For example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.<blockquote>例如，不要关注过去一年或五年的时期，而是使用过去21年以上的时期进行推断。这让你回到了互联网泡沫的顶部，就在泡沫破灭之前，纳斯达克综合指数的价值下跌了近80%。假设纳斯达克自2000年3月高点以来的增长率，它将在14年内触及30,000点大关，并且永远不会超过道琼斯指数——因为这些蓝筹股实际上在过去21年多的时间里表现优于纳斯达克。</blockquote> So the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.<blockquote>因此，这些室内游戏的真正意义应该是在你对市场未来的预测中引入现实检验。近年来，股市的表现远好于我们对未来的预期。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b13c6bd176fff9917be367c0d304aa48\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> What is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the&nbsp;market’s current extreme overvaluation&nbsp;into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a&nbsp;database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).<blockquote>什么是现实？答案取决于各种因素，比如你是否考虑到市场目前的极度高估。但如果你只是简单地将过去外推到未来而不考虑估值，你应该尽可能长时间地关注过去。就美国市场而言，数据至少可以追溯到1793年（由圣克拉拉大学利维商学院名誉教授爱德华·麦夸里提供的数据库提供）。</blockquote> Based on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:<blockquote>根据他的数据库，我对纳斯达克未来几年的表现有以下预测：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Overall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation</li> <li>Expected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per&nbsp;Cleveland Fed model)</li> <li>Nasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per&nbsp;data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French&nbsp;on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)</li> </ul> The net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.<blockquote><ul><li>自1793年以来整体市场年化回报率：年化回报率高于通胀6.1%</li><li>未来十年预期通胀率：1.6%（根据克利夫兰联储模型）</li><li>纳斯达克综合指数相对于整体市场的预期回报率：年化负0.1%（根据Dartmouth教授Ken French自1926年以来关于大盘成长板块表现的数据，该板块最接近主导纳斯达克综合指数的股票）</li></ul>最终结果是：未来几年的年化名义回报率为7.6%。这远低于纳斯达克综合指数过去12个月41.8%的回报率，或过去五年23.8%的年化回报率。</blockquote> In fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.<blockquote>事实上，7.6%的年化回报率并不比纳斯达克综合指数自互联网泡沫顶部以来的平均回报率好多少。按照7.6%的年化增长率计算，该指数需要9.7年才能达到30,000点。请记住，假设市场目前的高估影响了股票的未来回报，那么纳斯达克综合指数需要更长的时间才能达到30,000点。</blockquote> The bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.<blockquote>底线？树不会长到天上。在庆祝近年来市场带来的好运的同时，你绝对不应该变得贪婪。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-07-27 21:17\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nHow the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years<blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数如何在10年内超越道琼斯指数</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8474c2fb4a64f693d66e2d4ffd1d7d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Nasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.<blockquote>纳斯达克3万？这并不像你想象的那么牵强。如果该指数继续以过去12个月的速度上涨，它将在短短两年内（2023年7月）达到这一原本难以想象的里程碑。</blockquote> Welcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s&nbsp;extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.<blockquote>欢迎来到最新的室内游戏，其灵感来自纳斯达克复合材料的非凡性能，使其达到了15,000大关的尖端。该指数最近在2020年3月交易价格低于7,000点。</blockquote> To be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，纳斯达克综合指数是人为高的，因为它在冠状病毒大流行初期的人为低水平。但这只能部分解释纳斯达克能以多快的速度达到30,000。相反，如果我们推断纳斯达克过去五年的回报，它只会略微增加其实现这一目标所需的时间——达到3.3年。</blockquote> A related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.<blockquote>一个相关的室内游戏是想象纳斯达克指数需要多长时间才能超越道琼斯工业平均指数。这需要更长的时间，因为当纳斯达克试图超越道琼斯指数时，道琼斯指数本身就会上涨。但是，假设这两个基准各自的五年增长率持续下去，纳斯达克将在9.9年内（即2031年夏季）超过道琼斯指数。</blockquote> Here’s the catch<blockquote>这是个问题</blockquote> Before you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.<blockquote>在您对这些高纳斯达克综合水平的前景过于兴奋之前，您应该知道有一个问题：这些预测在很大程度上取决于您选择推断未来的时间段。并非所有的预测都是乐观的。</blockquote> For example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.<blockquote>例如，不要关注过去一年或五年的时期，而是使用过去21年以上的时期进行推断。这让你回到了互联网泡沫的顶部，就在泡沫破灭之前，纳斯达克综合指数的价值下跌了近80%。假设纳斯达克自2000年3月高点以来的增长率，它将在14年内触及30,000点大关，并且永远不会超过道琼斯指数——因为这些蓝筹股实际上在过去21年多的时间里表现优于纳斯达克。</blockquote> So the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.<blockquote>因此，这些室内游戏的真正意义应该是在你对市场未来的预测中引入现实检验。近年来，股市的表现远好于我们对未来的预期。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b13c6bd176fff9917be367c0d304aa48\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> What is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the&nbsp;market’s current extreme overvaluation&nbsp;into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a&nbsp;database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).<blockquote>什么是现实？答案取决于各种因素，比如你是否考虑到市场目前的极度高估。但如果你只是简单地将过去外推到未来而不考虑估值，你应该尽可能长时间地关注过去。就美国市场而言，数据至少可以追溯到1793年（由圣克拉拉大学利维商学院名誉教授爱德华·麦夸里提供的数据库提供）。</blockquote> Based on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:<blockquote>根据他的数据库，我对纳斯达克未来几年的表现有以下预测：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Overall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation</li> <li>Expected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per&nbsp;Cleveland Fed model)</li> <li>Nasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per&nbsp;data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French&nbsp;on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)</li> </ul> The net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.<blockquote><ul><li>自1793年以来整体市场年化回报率：年化回报率高于通胀6.1%</li><li>未来十年预期通胀率：1.6%（根据克利夫兰联储模型）</li><li>纳斯达克综合指数相对于整体市场的预期回报率：年化负0.1%（根据Dartmouth教授Ken French自1926年以来关于大盘成长板块表现的数据，该板块最接近主导纳斯达克综合指数的股票）</li></ul>最终结果是：未来几年的年化名义回报率为7.6%。这远低于纳斯达克综合指数过去12个月41.8%的回报率，或过去五年23.8%的年化回报率。</blockquote> In fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.<blockquote>事实上，7.6%的年化回报率并不比纳斯达克综合指数自互联网泡沫顶部以来的平均回报率好多少。按照7.6%的年化增长率计算，该指数需要9.7年才能达到30,000点。请记住，假设市场目前的高估影响了股票的未来回报，那么纳斯达克综合指数需要更长的时间才能达到30,000点。</blockquote> The bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.<blockquote>底线？树不会长到天上。在庆祝近年来市场带来的好运的同时，你绝对不应该变得贪婪。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-15-000-is-near-do-i-hear-30-000-11627374665?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-15-000-is-near-do-i-hear-30-000-11627374665?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138487254","content_text":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nNasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.\nWelcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.\nTo be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.\nA related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.\nHere’s the catch\nBefore you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.\nFor example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.\nSo the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.\n\nWhat is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the market’s current extreme overvaluation into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).\nBased on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:\n\nOverall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation\nExpected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per Cleveland Fed model)\nNasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)\n\nThe net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.\nIn fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.\nThe bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":809739110,"gmtCreate":1627392582430,"gmtModify":1633765460222,"author":{"id":"3575960528012254","authorId":"3575960528012254","name":"AntonyGeorge","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42c9567b5a3657003840b0dc4fcee15c","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3575960528012254","idStr":"3575960528012254"},"htmlText":"Will need to book ambulance","listText":"Will need to book ambulance","text":"Will need to book ambulance","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809739110","repostId":1138487254,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138487254","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627391824,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138487254?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 21:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138487254","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAG","content":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years<blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数如何在10年内超越道琼斯指数</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8474c2fb4a64f693d66e2d4ffd1d7d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Nasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.<blockquote>纳斯达克3万？这并不像你想象的那么牵强。如果该指数继续以过去12个月的速度上涨，它将在短短两年内（2023年7月）达到这一原本难以想象的里程碑。</blockquote> Welcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s&nbsp;extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.<blockquote>欢迎来到最新的室内游戏，其灵感来自纳斯达克复合材料的非凡性能，使其达到了15,000大关的尖端。该指数最近在2020年3月交易价格低于7,000点。</blockquote> To be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，纳斯达克综合指数是人为高的，因为它在冠状病毒大流行初期的人为低水平。但这只能部分解释纳斯达克能以多快的速度达到30,000。相反，如果我们推断纳斯达克过去五年的回报，它只会略微增加其实现这一目标所需的时间——达到3.3年。</blockquote> A related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.<blockquote>一个相关的室内游戏是想象纳斯达克指数需要多长时间才能超越道琼斯工业平均指数。这需要更长的时间，因为当纳斯达克试图超越道琼斯指数时，道琼斯指数本身就会上涨。但是，假设这两个基准各自的五年增长率持续下去，纳斯达克将在9.9年内（即2031年夏季）超过道琼斯指数。</blockquote> Here’s the catch<blockquote>这是个问题</blockquote> Before you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.<blockquote>在您对这些高纳斯达克综合水平的前景过于兴奋之前，您应该知道有一个问题：这些预测在很大程度上取决于您选择推断未来的时间段。并非所有的预测都是乐观的。</blockquote> For example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.<blockquote>例如，不要关注过去一年或五年的时期，而是使用过去21年以上的时期进行推断。这让你回到了互联网泡沫的顶部，就在泡沫破灭之前，纳斯达克综合指数的价值下跌了近80%。假设纳斯达克自2000年3月高点以来的增长率，它将在14年内触及30,000点大关，并且永远不会超过道琼斯指数——因为这些蓝筹股实际上在过去21年多的时间里表现优于纳斯达克。</blockquote> So the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.<blockquote>因此，这些室内游戏的真正意义应该是在你对市场未来的预测中引入现实检验。近年来，股市的表现远好于我们对未来的预期。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b13c6bd176fff9917be367c0d304aa48\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> What is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the&nbsp;market’s current extreme overvaluation&nbsp;into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a&nbsp;database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).<blockquote>什么是现实？答案取决于各种因素，比如你是否考虑到市场目前的极度高估。但如果你只是简单地将过去外推到未来而不考虑估值，你应该尽可能长时间地关注过去。就美国市场而言，数据至少可以追溯到1793年（由圣克拉拉大学利维商学院名誉教授爱德华·麦夸里提供的数据库提供）。</blockquote> Based on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:<blockquote>根据他的数据库，我对纳斯达克未来几年的表现有以下预测：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Overall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation</li> <li>Expected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per&nbsp;Cleveland Fed model)</li> <li>Nasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per&nbsp;data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French&nbsp;on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)</li> </ul> The net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.<blockquote><ul><li>自1793年以来整体市场年化回报率：年化回报率高于通胀6.1%</li><li>未来十年预期通胀率：1.6%（根据克利夫兰联储模型）</li><li>纳斯达克综合指数相对于整体市场的预期回报率：年化负0.1%（根据Dartmouth教授Ken French自1926年以来关于大盘成长板块表现的数据，该板块最接近主导纳斯达克综合指数的股票）</li></ul>最终结果是：未来几年的年化名义回报率为7.6%。这远低于纳斯达克综合指数过去12个月41.8%的回报率，或过去五年23.8%的年化回报率。</blockquote> In fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.<blockquote>事实上，7.6%的年化回报率并不比纳斯达克综合指数自互联网泡沫顶部以来的平均回报率好多少。按照7.6%的年化增长率计算，该指数需要9.7年才能达到30,000点。请记住，假设市场目前的高估影响了股票的未来回报，那么纳斯达克综合指数需要更长的时间才能达到30,000点。</blockquote> The bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.<blockquote>底线？树不会长到天上。在庆祝近年来市场带来的好运的同时，你绝对不应该变得贪婪。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-07-27 21:17\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nHow the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years<blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数如何在10年内超越道琼斯指数</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8474c2fb4a64f693d66e2d4ffd1d7d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Nasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.<blockquote>纳斯达克3万？这并不像你想象的那么牵强。如果该指数继续以过去12个月的速度上涨，它将在短短两年内（2023年7月）达到这一原本难以想象的里程碑。</blockquote> Welcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s&nbsp;extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.<blockquote>欢迎来到最新的室内游戏，其灵感来自纳斯达克复合材料的非凡性能，使其达到了15,000大关的尖端。该指数最近在2020年3月交易价格低于7,000点。</blockquote> To be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，纳斯达克综合指数是人为高的，因为它在冠状病毒大流行初期的人为低水平。但这只能部分解释纳斯达克能以多快的速度达到30,000。相反，如果我们推断纳斯达克过去五年的回报，它只会略微增加其实现这一目标所需的时间——达到3.3年。</blockquote> A related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.<blockquote>一个相关的室内游戏是想象纳斯达克指数需要多长时间才能超越道琼斯工业平均指数。这需要更长的时间，因为当纳斯达克试图超越道琼斯指数时，道琼斯指数本身就会上涨。但是，假设这两个基准各自的五年增长率持续下去，纳斯达克将在9.9年内（即2031年夏季）超过道琼斯指数。</blockquote> Here’s the catch<blockquote>这是个问题</blockquote> Before you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.<blockquote>在您对这些高纳斯达克综合水平的前景过于兴奋之前，您应该知道有一个问题：这些预测在很大程度上取决于您选择推断未来的时间段。并非所有的预测都是乐观的。</blockquote> For example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.<blockquote>例如，不要关注过去一年或五年的时期，而是使用过去21年以上的时期进行推断。这让你回到了互联网泡沫的顶部，就在泡沫破灭之前，纳斯达克综合指数的价值下跌了近80%。假设纳斯达克自2000年3月高点以来的增长率，它将在14年内触及30,000点大关，并且永远不会超过道琼斯指数——因为这些蓝筹股实际上在过去21年多的时间里表现优于纳斯达克。</blockquote> So the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.<blockquote>因此，这些室内游戏的真正意义应该是在你对市场未来的预测中引入现实检验。近年来，股市的表现远好于我们对未来的预期。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b13c6bd176fff9917be367c0d304aa48\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> What is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the&nbsp;market’s current extreme overvaluation&nbsp;into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a&nbsp;database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).<blockquote>什么是现实？答案取决于各种因素，比如你是否考虑到市场目前的极度高估。但如果你只是简单地将过去外推到未来而不考虑估值，你应该尽可能长时间地关注过去。就美国市场而言，数据至少可以追溯到1793年（由圣克拉拉大学利维商学院名誉教授爱德华·麦夸里提供的数据库提供）。</blockquote> Based on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:<blockquote>根据他的数据库，我对纳斯达克未来几年的表现有以下预测：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Overall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation</li> <li>Expected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per&nbsp;Cleveland Fed model)</li> <li>Nasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per&nbsp;data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French&nbsp;on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)</li> </ul> The net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.<blockquote><ul><li>自1793年以来整体市场年化回报率：年化回报率高于通胀6.1%</li><li>未来十年预期通胀率：1.6%（根据克利夫兰联储模型）</li><li>纳斯达克综合指数相对于整体市场的预期回报率：年化负0.1%（根据Dartmouth教授Ken French自1926年以来关于大盘成长板块表现的数据，该板块最接近主导纳斯达克综合指数的股票）</li></ul>最终结果是：未来几年的年化名义回报率为7.6%。这远低于纳斯达克综合指数过去12个月41.8%的回报率，或过去五年23.8%的年化回报率。</blockquote> In fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.<blockquote>事实上，7.6%的年化回报率并不比纳斯达克综合指数自互联网泡沫顶部以来的平均回报率好多少。按照7.6%的年化增长率计算，该指数需要9.7年才能达到30,000点。请记住，假设市场目前的高估影响了股票的未来回报，那么纳斯达克综合指数需要更长的时间才能达到30,000点。</blockquote> The bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.<blockquote>底线？树不会长到天上。在庆祝近年来市场带来的好运的同时，你绝对不应该变得贪婪。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-15-000-is-near-do-i-hear-30-000-11627374665?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-15-000-is-near-do-i-hear-30-000-11627374665?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138487254","content_text":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nNasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.\nWelcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.\nTo be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.\nA related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.\nHere’s the catch\nBefore you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.\nFor example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.\nSo the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.\n\nWhat is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the market’s current extreme overvaluation into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).\nBased on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:\n\nOverall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation\nExpected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per Cleveland Fed model)\nNasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)\n\nThe net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.\nIn fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.\nThe bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5347242,"gmtCreate":1627392611792,"gmtModify":1635220277218,"authorId":3575960528012254,"author":{"id":3575960528012254,"idStr":"3575960528012254","authorId":3575960528012254,"name":"AntonyGeorge","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42c9567b5a3657003840b0dc4fcee15c","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":809739110,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"yes","text":"yes","html":"yes"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":809730850,"gmtCreate":1627392531270,"gmtModify":1633765461011,"author":{"id":"3572428109068921","authorId":"3572428109068921","name":"DChia","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bcfaaf6da9577d8a6da421538592a0e","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3572428109068921","idStr":"3572428109068921"},"htmlText":"Train continues","listText":"Train continues","text":"Train continues","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809730850","repostId":1138487254,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138487254","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627391824,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138487254?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 21:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138487254","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAG","content":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years<blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数如何在10年内超越道琼斯指数</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8474c2fb4a64f693d66e2d4ffd1d7d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Nasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.<blockquote>纳斯达克3万？这并不像你想象的那么牵强。如果该指数继续以过去12个月的速度上涨，它将在短短两年内（2023年7月）达到这一原本难以想象的里程碑。</blockquote> Welcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s&nbsp;extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.<blockquote>欢迎来到最新的室内游戏，其灵感来自纳斯达克复合材料的非凡性能，使其达到了15,000大关的尖端。该指数最近在2020年3月交易价格低于7,000点。</blockquote> To be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，纳斯达克综合指数是人为高的，因为它在冠状病毒大流行初期的人为低水平。但这只能部分解释纳斯达克能以多快的速度达到30,000。相反，如果我们推断纳斯达克过去五年的回报，它只会略微增加其实现这一目标所需的时间——达到3.3年。</blockquote> A related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.<blockquote>一个相关的室内游戏是想象纳斯达克指数需要多长时间才能超越道琼斯工业平均指数。这需要更长的时间，因为当纳斯达克试图超越道琼斯指数时，道琼斯指数本身就会上涨。但是，假设这两个基准各自的五年增长率持续下去，纳斯达克将在9.9年内（即2031年夏季）超过道琼斯指数。</blockquote> Here’s the catch<blockquote>这是个问题</blockquote> Before you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.<blockquote>在您对这些高纳斯达克综合水平的前景过于兴奋之前，您应该知道有一个问题：这些预测在很大程度上取决于您选择推断未来的时间段。并非所有的预测都是乐观的。</blockquote> For example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.<blockquote>例如，不要关注过去一年或五年的时期，而是使用过去21年以上的时期进行推断。这让你回到了互联网泡沫的顶部，就在泡沫破灭之前，纳斯达克综合指数的价值下跌了近80%。假设纳斯达克自2000年3月高点以来的增长率，它将在14年内触及30,000点大关，并且永远不会超过道琼斯指数——因为这些蓝筹股实际上在过去21年多的时间里表现优于纳斯达克。</blockquote> So the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.<blockquote>因此，这些室内游戏的真正意义应该是在你对市场未来的预测中引入现实检验。近年来，股市的表现远好于我们对未来的预期。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b13c6bd176fff9917be367c0d304aa48\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> What is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the&nbsp;market’s current extreme overvaluation&nbsp;into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a&nbsp;database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).<blockquote>什么是现实？答案取决于各种因素，比如你是否考虑到市场目前的极度高估。但如果你只是简单地将过去外推到未来而不考虑估值，你应该尽可能长时间地关注过去。就美国市场而言，数据至少可以追溯到1793年（由圣克拉拉大学利维商学院名誉教授爱德华·麦夸里提供的数据库提供）。</blockquote> Based on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:<blockquote>根据他的数据库，我对纳斯达克未来几年的表现有以下预测：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Overall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation</li> <li>Expected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per&nbsp;Cleveland Fed model)</li> <li>Nasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per&nbsp;data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French&nbsp;on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)</li> </ul> The net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.<blockquote><ul><li>自1793年以来整体市场年化回报率：年化回报率高于通胀6.1%</li><li>未来十年预期通胀率：1.6%（根据克利夫兰联储模型）</li><li>纳斯达克综合指数相对于整体市场的预期回报率：年化负0.1%（根据Dartmouth教授Ken French自1926年以来关于大盘成长板块表现的数据，该板块最接近主导纳斯达克综合指数的股票）</li></ul>最终结果是：未来几年的年化名义回报率为7.6%。这远低于纳斯达克综合指数过去12个月41.8%的回报率，或过去五年23.8%的年化回报率。</blockquote> In fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.<blockquote>事实上，7.6%的年化回报率并不比纳斯达克综合指数自互联网泡沫顶部以来的平均回报率好多少。按照7.6%的年化增长率计算，该指数需要9.7年才能达到30,000点。请记住，假设市场目前的高估影响了股票的未来回报，那么纳斯达克综合指数需要更长的时间才能达到30,000点。</blockquote> The bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.<blockquote>底线？树不会长到天上。在庆祝近年来市场带来的好运的同时，你绝对不应该变得贪婪。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-07-27 21:17\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nHow the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years<blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数如何在10年内超越道琼斯指数</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8474c2fb4a64f693d66e2d4ffd1d7d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Nasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.<blockquote>纳斯达克3万？这并不像你想象的那么牵强。如果该指数继续以过去12个月的速度上涨，它将在短短两年内（2023年7月）达到这一原本难以想象的里程碑。</blockquote> Welcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s&nbsp;extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.<blockquote>欢迎来到最新的室内游戏，其灵感来自纳斯达克复合材料的非凡性能，使其达到了15,000大关的尖端。该指数最近在2020年3月交易价格低于7,000点。</blockquote> To be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，纳斯达克综合指数是人为高的，因为它在冠状病毒大流行初期的人为低水平。但这只能部分解释纳斯达克能以多快的速度达到30,000。相反，如果我们推断纳斯达克过去五年的回报，它只会略微增加其实现这一目标所需的时间——达到3.3年。</blockquote> A related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.<blockquote>一个相关的室内游戏是想象纳斯达克指数需要多长时间才能超越道琼斯工业平均指数。这需要更长的时间，因为当纳斯达克试图超越道琼斯指数时，道琼斯指数本身就会上涨。但是，假设这两个基准各自的五年增长率持续下去，纳斯达克将在9.9年内（即2031年夏季）超过道琼斯指数。</blockquote> Here’s the catch<blockquote>这是个问题</blockquote> Before you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.<blockquote>在您对这些高纳斯达克综合水平的前景过于兴奋之前，您应该知道有一个问题：这些预测在很大程度上取决于您选择推断未来的时间段。并非所有的预测都是乐观的。</blockquote> For example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.<blockquote>例如，不要关注过去一年或五年的时期，而是使用过去21年以上的时期进行推断。这让你回到了互联网泡沫的顶部，就在泡沫破灭之前，纳斯达克综合指数的价值下跌了近80%。假设纳斯达克自2000年3月高点以来的增长率，它将在14年内触及30,000点大关，并且永远不会超过道琼斯指数——因为这些蓝筹股实际上在过去21年多的时间里表现优于纳斯达克。</blockquote> So the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.<blockquote>因此，这些室内游戏的真正意义应该是在你对市场未来的预测中引入现实检验。近年来，股市的表现远好于我们对未来的预期。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b13c6bd176fff9917be367c0d304aa48\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> What is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the&nbsp;market’s current extreme overvaluation&nbsp;into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a&nbsp;database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).<blockquote>什么是现实？答案取决于各种因素，比如你是否考虑到市场目前的极度高估。但如果你只是简单地将过去外推到未来而不考虑估值，你应该尽可能长时间地关注过去。就美国市场而言，数据至少可以追溯到1793年（由圣克拉拉大学利维商学院名誉教授爱德华·麦夸里提供的数据库提供）。</blockquote> Based on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:<blockquote>根据他的数据库，我对纳斯达克未来几年的表现有以下预测：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Overall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation</li> <li>Expected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per&nbsp;Cleveland Fed model)</li> <li>Nasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per&nbsp;data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French&nbsp;on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)</li> </ul> The net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.<blockquote><ul><li>自1793年以来整体市场年化回报率：年化回报率高于通胀6.1%</li><li>未来十年预期通胀率：1.6%（根据克利夫兰联储模型）</li><li>纳斯达克综合指数相对于整体市场的预期回报率：年化负0.1%（根据Dartmouth教授Ken French自1926年以来关于大盘成长板块表现的数据，该板块最接近主导纳斯达克综合指数的股票）</li></ul>最终结果是：未来几年的年化名义回报率为7.6%。这远低于纳斯达克综合指数过去12个月41.8%的回报率，或过去五年23.8%的年化回报率。</blockquote> In fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.<blockquote>事实上，7.6%的年化回报率并不比纳斯达克综合指数自互联网泡沫顶部以来的平均回报率好多少。按照7.6%的年化增长率计算，该指数需要9.7年才能达到30,000点。请记住，假设市场目前的高估影响了股票的未来回报，那么纳斯达克综合指数需要更长的时间才能达到30,000点。</blockquote> The bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.<blockquote>底线？树不会长到天上。在庆祝近年来市场带来的好运的同时，你绝对不应该变得贪婪。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-15-000-is-near-do-i-hear-30-000-11627374665?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-15-000-is-near-do-i-hear-30-000-11627374665?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138487254","content_text":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nNasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.\nWelcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.\nTo be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.\nA related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.\nHere’s the catch\nBefore you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.\nFor example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.\nSo the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.\n\nWhat is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the market’s current extreme overvaluation into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).\nBased on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:\n\nOverall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation\nExpected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per Cleveland Fed model)\nNasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)\n\nThe net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.\nIn fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.\nThe bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5383560,"gmtCreate":1627688165139,"gmtModify":1635163821335,"authorId":3559581955535845,"author":{"id":3559581955535845,"idStr":"3559581955535845","authorId":3559581955535845,"name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","vip":2,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":809730850,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Chugging along merrily🤑","text":"Chugging along merrily🤑","html":"Chugging along merrily🤑"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":809796096,"gmtCreate":1627392209815,"gmtModify":1631888803284,"author":{"id":"3574924540403487","authorId":"3574924540403487","name":"kareayam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c77978f4b287e714563b2757b7a227","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3574924540403487","idStr":"3574924540403487"},"htmlText":"Higher and higher[鬼脸]&nbsp;","listText":"Higher and higher[鬼脸]&nbsp;","text":"Higher and higher[鬼脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809796096","repostId":1138487254,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138487254","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627391824,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138487254?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 21:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138487254","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAG","content":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years<blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数如何在10年内超越道琼斯指数</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8474c2fb4a64f693d66e2d4ffd1d7d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Nasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.<blockquote>纳斯达克3万？这并不像你想象的那么牵强。如果该指数继续以过去12个月的速度上涨，它将在短短两年内（2023年7月）达到这一原本难以想象的里程碑。</blockquote> Welcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s&nbsp;extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.<blockquote>欢迎来到最新的室内游戏，其灵感来自纳斯达克复合材料的非凡性能，使其达到了15,000大关的尖端。该指数最近在2020年3月交易价格低于7,000点。</blockquote> To be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，纳斯达克综合指数是人为高的，因为它在冠状病毒大流行初期的人为低水平。但这只能部分解释纳斯达克能以多快的速度达到30,000。相反，如果我们推断纳斯达克过去五年的回报，它只会略微增加其实现这一目标所需的时间——达到3.3年。</blockquote> A related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.<blockquote>一个相关的室内游戏是想象纳斯达克指数需要多长时间才能超越道琼斯工业平均指数。这需要更长的时间，因为当纳斯达克试图超越道琼斯指数时，道琼斯指数本身就会上涨。但是，假设这两个基准各自的五年增长率持续下去，纳斯达克将在9.9年内（即2031年夏季）超过道琼斯指数。</blockquote> Here’s the catch<blockquote>这是个问题</blockquote> Before you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.<blockquote>在您对这些高纳斯达克综合水平的前景过于兴奋之前，您应该知道有一个问题：这些预测在很大程度上取决于您选择推断未来的时间段。并非所有的预测都是乐观的。</blockquote> For example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.<blockquote>例如，不要关注过去一年或五年的时期，而是使用过去21年以上的时期进行推断。这让你回到了互联网泡沫的顶部，就在泡沫破灭之前，纳斯达克综合指数的价值下跌了近80%。假设纳斯达克自2000年3月高点以来的增长率，它将在14年内触及30,000点大关，并且永远不会超过道琼斯指数——因为这些蓝筹股实际上在过去21年多的时间里表现优于纳斯达克。</blockquote> So the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.<blockquote>因此，这些室内游戏的真正意义应该是在你对市场未来的预测中引入现实检验。近年来，股市的表现远好于我们对未来的预期。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b13c6bd176fff9917be367c0d304aa48\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> What is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the&nbsp;market’s current extreme overvaluation&nbsp;into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a&nbsp;database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).<blockquote>什么是现实？答案取决于各种因素，比如你是否考虑到市场目前的极度高估。但如果你只是简单地将过去外推到未来而不考虑估值，你应该尽可能长时间地关注过去。就美国市场而言，数据至少可以追溯到1793年（由圣克拉拉大学利维商学院名誉教授爱德华·麦夸里提供的数据库提供）。</blockquote> Based on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:<blockquote>根据他的数据库，我对纳斯达克未来几年的表现有以下预测：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Overall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation</li> <li>Expected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per&nbsp;Cleveland Fed model)</li> <li>Nasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per&nbsp;data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French&nbsp;on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)</li> </ul> The net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.<blockquote><ul><li>自1793年以来整体市场年化回报率：年化回报率高于通胀6.1%</li><li>未来十年预期通胀率：1.6%（根据克利夫兰联储模型）</li><li>纳斯达克综合指数相对于整体市场的预期回报率：年化负0.1%（根据Dartmouth教授Ken French自1926年以来关于大盘成长板块表现的数据，该板块最接近主导纳斯达克综合指数的股票）</li></ul>最终结果是：未来几年的年化名义回报率为7.6%。这远低于纳斯达克综合指数过去12个月41.8%的回报率，或过去五年23.8%的年化回报率。</blockquote> In fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.<blockquote>事实上，7.6%的年化回报率并不比纳斯达克综合指数自互联网泡沫顶部以来的平均回报率好多少。按照7.6%的年化增长率计算，该指数需要9.7年才能达到30,000点。请记住，假设市场目前的高估影响了股票的未来回报，那么纳斯达克综合指数需要更长的时间才能达到30,000点。</blockquote> The bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.<blockquote>底线？树不会长到天上。在庆祝近年来市场带来的好运的同时，你绝对不应该变得贪婪。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-07-27 21:17\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nHow the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years<blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数如何在10年内超越道琼斯指数</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8474c2fb4a64f693d66e2d4ffd1d7d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Nasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.<blockquote>纳斯达克3万？这并不像你想象的那么牵强。如果该指数继续以过去12个月的速度上涨，它将在短短两年内（2023年7月）达到这一原本难以想象的里程碑。</blockquote> Welcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s&nbsp;extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.<blockquote>欢迎来到最新的室内游戏，其灵感来自纳斯达克复合材料的非凡性能，使其达到了15,000大关的尖端。该指数最近在2020年3月交易价格低于7,000点。</blockquote> To be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，纳斯达克综合指数是人为高的，因为它在冠状病毒大流行初期的人为低水平。但这只能部分解释纳斯达克能以多快的速度达到30,000。相反，如果我们推断纳斯达克过去五年的回报，它只会略微增加其实现这一目标所需的时间——达到3.3年。</blockquote> A related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.<blockquote>一个相关的室内游戏是想象纳斯达克指数需要多长时间才能超越道琼斯工业平均指数。这需要更长的时间，因为当纳斯达克试图超越道琼斯指数时，道琼斯指数本身就会上涨。但是，假设这两个基准各自的五年增长率持续下去，纳斯达克将在9.9年内（即2031年夏季）超过道琼斯指数。</blockquote> Here’s the catch<blockquote>这是个问题</blockquote> Before you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.<blockquote>在您对这些高纳斯达克综合水平的前景过于兴奋之前，您应该知道有一个问题：这些预测在很大程度上取决于您选择推断未来的时间段。并非所有的预测都是乐观的。</blockquote> For example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.<blockquote>例如，不要关注过去一年或五年的时期，而是使用过去21年以上的时期进行推断。这让你回到了互联网泡沫的顶部，就在泡沫破灭之前，纳斯达克综合指数的价值下跌了近80%。假设纳斯达克自2000年3月高点以来的增长率，它将在14年内触及30,000点大关，并且永远不会超过道琼斯指数——因为这些蓝筹股实际上在过去21年多的时间里表现优于纳斯达克。</blockquote> So the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.<blockquote>因此，这些室内游戏的真正意义应该是在你对市场未来的预测中引入现实检验。近年来，股市的表现远好于我们对未来的预期。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b13c6bd176fff9917be367c0d304aa48\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> What is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the&nbsp;market’s current extreme overvaluation&nbsp;into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a&nbsp;database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).<blockquote>什么是现实？答案取决于各种因素，比如你是否考虑到市场目前的极度高估。但如果你只是简单地将过去外推到未来而不考虑估值，你应该尽可能长时间地关注过去。就美国市场而言，数据至少可以追溯到1793年（由圣克拉拉大学利维商学院名誉教授爱德华·麦夸里提供的数据库提供）。</blockquote> Based on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:<blockquote>根据他的数据库，我对纳斯达克未来几年的表现有以下预测：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Overall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation</li> <li>Expected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per&nbsp;Cleveland Fed model)</li> <li>Nasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per&nbsp;data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French&nbsp;on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)</li> </ul> The net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.<blockquote><ul><li>自1793年以来整体市场年化回报率：年化回报率高于通胀6.1%</li><li>未来十年预期通胀率：1.6%（根据克利夫兰联储模型）</li><li>纳斯达克综合指数相对于整体市场的预期回报率：年化负0.1%（根据Dartmouth教授Ken French自1926年以来关于大盘成长板块表现的数据，该板块最接近主导纳斯达克综合指数的股票）</li></ul>最终结果是：未来几年的年化名义回报率为7.6%。这远低于纳斯达克综合指数过去12个月41.8%的回报率，或过去五年23.8%的年化回报率。</blockquote> In fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.<blockquote>事实上，7.6%的年化回报率并不比纳斯达克综合指数自互联网泡沫顶部以来的平均回报率好多少。按照7.6%的年化增长率计算，该指数需要9.7年才能达到30,000点。请记住，假设市场目前的高估影响了股票的未来回报，那么纳斯达克综合指数需要更长的时间才能达到30,000点。</blockquote> The bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.<blockquote>底线？树不会长到天上。在庆祝近年来市场带来的好运的同时，你绝对不应该变得贪婪。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-15-000-is-near-do-i-hear-30-000-11627374665?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-15-000-is-near-do-i-hear-30-000-11627374665?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138487254","content_text":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nNasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.\nWelcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.\nTo be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.\nA related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.\nHere’s the catch\nBefore you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.\nFor example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.\nSo the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.\n\nWhat is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the market’s current extreme overvaluation into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).\nBased on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:\n\nOverall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation\nExpected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per Cleveland Fed model)\nNasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)\n\nThe net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.\nIn fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.\nThe bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5347724,"gmtCreate":1627394589928,"gmtModify":1631888803284,"authorId":3574948695055795,"author":{"id":3574948695055795,"idStr":"3574948695055795","authorId":3574948695055795,"name":"Elysium19","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":809796096,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"💪","text":"💪","html":"💪"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":809791161,"gmtCreate":1627392054453,"gmtModify":1631889001212,"author":{"id":"3560310978208055","authorId":"3560310978208055","name":"JT888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/401d4c74d73fbfc36934d21a5f23ac78","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3560310978208055","idStr":"3560310978208055"},"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809791161","repostId":1138487254,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138487254","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627391824,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138487254?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 21:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138487254","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAG","content":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years<blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数如何在10年内超越道琼斯指数</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8474c2fb4a64f693d66e2d4ffd1d7d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Nasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.<blockquote>纳斯达克3万？这并不像你想象的那么牵强。如果该指数继续以过去12个月的速度上涨，它将在短短两年内（2023年7月）达到这一原本难以想象的里程碑。</blockquote> Welcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s&nbsp;extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.<blockquote>欢迎来到最新的室内游戏，其灵感来自纳斯达克复合材料的非凡性能，使其达到了15,000大关的尖端。该指数最近在2020年3月交易价格低于7,000点。</blockquote> To be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，纳斯达克综合指数是人为高的，因为它在冠状病毒大流行初期的人为低水平。但这只能部分解释纳斯达克能以多快的速度达到30,000。相反，如果我们推断纳斯达克过去五年的回报，它只会略微增加其实现这一目标所需的时间——达到3.3年。</blockquote> A related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.<blockquote>一个相关的室内游戏是想象纳斯达克指数需要多长时间才能超越道琼斯工业平均指数。这需要更长的时间，因为当纳斯达克试图超越道琼斯指数时，道琼斯指数本身就会上涨。但是，假设这两个基准各自的五年增长率持续下去，纳斯达克将在9.9年内（即2031年夏季）超过道琼斯指数。</blockquote> Here’s the catch<blockquote>这是个问题</blockquote> Before you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.<blockquote>在您对这些高纳斯达克综合水平的前景过于兴奋之前，您应该知道有一个问题：这些预测在很大程度上取决于您选择推断未来的时间段。并非所有的预测都是乐观的。</blockquote> For example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.<blockquote>例如，不要关注过去一年或五年的时期，而是使用过去21年以上的时期进行推断。这让你回到了互联网泡沫的顶部，就在泡沫破灭之前，纳斯达克综合指数的价值下跌了近80%。假设纳斯达克自2000年3月高点以来的增长率，它将在14年内触及30,000点大关，并且永远不会超过道琼斯指数——因为这些蓝筹股实际上在过去21年多的时间里表现优于纳斯达克。</blockquote> So the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.<blockquote>因此，这些室内游戏的真正意义应该是在你对市场未来的预测中引入现实检验。近年来，股市的表现远好于我们对未来的预期。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b13c6bd176fff9917be367c0d304aa48\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> What is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the&nbsp;market’s current extreme overvaluation&nbsp;into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a&nbsp;database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).<blockquote>什么是现实？答案取决于各种因素，比如你是否考虑到市场目前的极度高估。但如果你只是简单地将过去外推到未来而不考虑估值，你应该尽可能长时间地关注过去。就美国市场而言，数据至少可以追溯到1793年（由圣克拉拉大学利维商学院名誉教授爱德华·麦夸里提供的数据库提供）。</blockquote> Based on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:<blockquote>根据他的数据库，我对纳斯达克未来几年的表现有以下预测：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Overall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation</li> <li>Expected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per&nbsp;Cleveland Fed model)</li> <li>Nasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per&nbsp;data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French&nbsp;on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)</li> </ul> The net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.<blockquote><ul><li>自1793年以来整体市场年化回报率：年化回报率高于通胀6.1%</li><li>未来十年预期通胀率：1.6%（根据克利夫兰联储模型）</li><li>纳斯达克综合指数相对于整体市场的预期回报率：年化负0.1%（根据Dartmouth教授Ken French自1926年以来关于大盘成长板块表现的数据，该板块最接近主导纳斯达克综合指数的股票）</li></ul>最终结果是：未来几年的年化名义回报率为7.6%。这远低于纳斯达克综合指数过去12个月41.8%的回报率，或过去五年23.8%的年化回报率。</blockquote> In fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.<blockquote>事实上，7.6%的年化回报率并不比纳斯达克综合指数自互联网泡沫顶部以来的平均回报率好多少。按照7.6%的年化增长率计算，该指数需要9.7年才能达到30,000点。请记住，假设市场目前的高估影响了股票的未来回报，那么纳斯达克综合指数需要更长的时间才能达到30,000点。</blockquote> The bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.<blockquote>底线？树不会长到天上。在庆祝近年来市场带来的好运的同时，你绝对不应该变得贪婪。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNasdaq 15,000 is near. Do I hear 30,000?<blockquote>纳斯达克15,000就在附近。我听到三万吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-07-27 21:17\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nHow the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years<blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数如何在10年内超越道琼斯指数</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8474c2fb4a64f693d66e2d4ffd1d7d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Nasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.<blockquote>纳斯达克3万？这并不像你想象的那么牵强。如果该指数继续以过去12个月的速度上涨，它将在短短两年内（2023年7月）达到这一原本难以想象的里程碑。</blockquote> Welcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s&nbsp;extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.<blockquote>欢迎来到最新的室内游戏，其灵感来自纳斯达克复合材料的非凡性能，使其达到了15,000大关的尖端。该指数最近在2020年3月交易价格低于7,000点。</blockquote> To be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，纳斯达克综合指数是人为高的，因为它在冠状病毒大流行初期的人为低水平。但这只能部分解释纳斯达克能以多快的速度达到30,000。相反，如果我们推断纳斯达克过去五年的回报，它只会略微增加其实现这一目标所需的时间——达到3.3年。</blockquote> A related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.<blockquote>一个相关的室内游戏是想象纳斯达克指数需要多长时间才能超越道琼斯工业平均指数。这需要更长的时间，因为当纳斯达克试图超越道琼斯指数时，道琼斯指数本身就会上涨。但是，假设这两个基准各自的五年增长率持续下去，纳斯达克将在9.9年内（即2031年夏季）超过道琼斯指数。</blockquote> Here’s the catch<blockquote>这是个问题</blockquote> Before you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.<blockquote>在您对这些高纳斯达克综合水平的前景过于兴奋之前，您应该知道有一个问题：这些预测在很大程度上取决于您选择推断未来的时间段。并非所有的预测都是乐观的。</blockquote> For example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.<blockquote>例如，不要关注过去一年或五年的时期，而是使用过去21年以上的时期进行推断。这让你回到了互联网泡沫的顶部，就在泡沫破灭之前，纳斯达克综合指数的价值下跌了近80%。假设纳斯达克自2000年3月高点以来的增长率，它将在14年内触及30,000点大关，并且永远不会超过道琼斯指数——因为这些蓝筹股实际上在过去21年多的时间里表现优于纳斯达克。</blockquote> So the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.<blockquote>因此，这些室内游戏的真正意义应该是在你对市场未来的预测中引入现实检验。近年来，股市的表现远好于我们对未来的预期。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b13c6bd176fff9917be367c0d304aa48\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> What is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the&nbsp;market’s current extreme overvaluation&nbsp;into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a&nbsp;database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).<blockquote>什么是现实？答案取决于各种因素，比如你是否考虑到市场目前的极度高估。但如果你只是简单地将过去外推到未来而不考虑估值，你应该尽可能长时间地关注过去。就美国市场而言，数据至少可以追溯到1793年（由圣克拉拉大学利维商学院名誉教授爱德华·麦夸里提供的数据库提供）。</blockquote> Based on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:<blockquote>根据他的数据库，我对纳斯达克未来几年的表现有以下预测：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Overall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation</li> <li>Expected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per&nbsp;Cleveland Fed model)</li> <li>Nasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per&nbsp;data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French&nbsp;on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)</li> </ul> The net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.<blockquote><ul><li>自1793年以来整体市场年化回报率：年化回报率高于通胀6.1%</li><li>未来十年预期通胀率：1.6%（根据克利夫兰联储模型）</li><li>纳斯达克综合指数相对于整体市场的预期回报率：年化负0.1%（根据Dartmouth教授Ken French自1926年以来关于大盘成长板块表现的数据，该板块最接近主导纳斯达克综合指数的股票）</li></ul>最终结果是：未来几年的年化名义回报率为7.6%。这远低于纳斯达克综合指数过去12个月41.8%的回报率，或过去五年23.8%的年化回报率。</blockquote> In fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.<blockquote>事实上，7.6%的年化回报率并不比纳斯达克综合指数自互联网泡沫顶部以来的平均回报率好多少。按照7.6%的年化增长率计算，该指数需要9.7年才能达到30,000点。请记住，假设市场目前的高估影响了股票的未来回报，那么纳斯达克综合指数需要更长的时间才能达到30,000点。</blockquote> The bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.<blockquote>底线？树不会长到天上。在庆祝近年来市场带来的好运的同时，你绝对不应该变得贪婪。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-15-000-is-near-do-i-hear-30-000-11627374665?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-15-000-is-near-do-i-hear-30-000-11627374665?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138487254","content_text":"How the Nasdaq Composite could eclipse the Dow in points in 10 years\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nNasdaq 30,000? It’s not as far-fetched as you might think. If the index continues rising at its rate of the past 12 months, it will hit this otherwise unimaginable milestone in just two years — July 2023.\nWelcome to the latest parlor game inspired by the Nasdaq Composite’s extraordinary performance that has led it to the cusp of the 15,000 mark. The index traded below 7,000 as recently as March 2020.\nTo be sure, the Nasdaq Composite is artificially high because of its artificially low levels in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But that explains only part of how quickly the Nasdaq could hit 30,000. If we instead extrapolate the Nasdaq’s return over the past five years, it only marginally increases how long it will take for it to do so — to 3.3 years.\nA related parlor game is to imagine how long it will take for the Nasdaq index to eclipse the Dow Jones Industrial Average.That would take somewhat longer, since the Dow itself would rise as the Nasdaq tries to overtake it. But, assuming these two benchmarks’ respective five-year growth rates persist, the Nasdaq would overtake the Dow in 9.9 years — in the summer of 2031.\nHere’s the catch\nBefore you get too excited by the prospect of these lofty Nasdaq Composite levels, you should know there’s a catch: These projections depend crucially on the time period you choose to extrapolate into the future. Not all lead to rosy projections.\nFor example, instead of focusing on the last one- or five-year periods, use the past 21+ year period to extrapolate. That takes you back to the top of the internet bubble, right before the Nasdaq Composite shed almost 80% of its value as that bubble deflated. Assuming the Nasdaq’s growth rate since the March 2000 top, it would hit the 30,000 mark in 14 years and never overtake the Dow — since these blue-chip stocks in fact have outperformed the Nasdaq over the past 21+ years.\nSo the real point of these parlor games should be to introduce a reality check into your projections of the market’s future. Recent years have been far better for equities than we have any right to expect going forward.\n\nWhat is realistic? The answer depends on various factors, such as whether you take the market’s current extreme overvaluation into account. But if you simply extrapolate the past into the future without regard to valuation, you should look at as long a past as possible. In the case of the U.S. market, data is available at least as far back as 1793 (courtesy of a database from Edward McQuarrie, professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University).\nBased on his database, here’s what I project for the Nasdaq’s performance in coming years:\n\nOverall market’s annualized return since 1793: 6.1% annualized above inflation\nExpected inflation over next decade: 1.6% (per Cleveland Fed model)\nNasdaq Composite’s expected return relative to overall market: Minus 0.1% annualized (per data since 1926 from Dartmouth professor Ken French on the performance of the large-cap growth sector, which is closest to the stocks that dominate the Nasdaq Composite)\n\nThe net result: A nominal return of 7.6% annualized in future years. That’s a lot lower than the Nasdaq Composite’s 41.8% return over the past 12 months, or its 23.8% annualized return over the past five years.\nIn fact, 7.6% annualized is not much better than the Nasdaq Composite’s average return since the top of the internet bubble. At a 7.6% annualized clip, it will take 9.7 years for the index to reach 30,000. Keep in mind that, assuming that the market’s current overvaluation impacts equities’ future return, it will take even longer for the Nasdaq Composite index to reach 30,000.\nThe bottom line? Trees don’t grow to the sky. While celebrating the good fortune the markets have produced in recent years, most definitely you should not get greedy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5347153,"gmtCreate":1627392158816,"gmtModify":1631889001210,"authorId":3586752780223051,"author":{"id":3586752780223051,"idStr":"3586752780223051","authorId":3586752780223051,"name":"羊坑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88ac1a68d3b3acc9ac25a13efb6869c0","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":809791161,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"not possible within this year","text":"not possible within this year","html":"not possible within this year"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":100,"commentSize":18,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}