Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act

wsj2021-06-18

A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 ...

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梁娜娜本人
·2021-06-21
Ok
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luv2trade
·2021-06-20
hello
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- deal2deal:
  [Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile]cool
  2021-06-22
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Orangejus
·2021-06-19
Looks like Turkey is getting roasted…
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Felixpow
·2021-06-18
cool
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Felixpow
·2021-06-18
cool
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Big__Boss
·2021-06-18
nice
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Big__Boss
·2021-06-18
nice
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- Big__Boss:
  like and comment below
  2021-06-18
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- Big__Boss:
  like and comment belwo
  2021-06-18
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- Big__Boss回复Big__Boss:
  i will comment back
  2021-06-18
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PerDerDer
·2021-06-18
Like and comment please
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wc77
·2021-06-18
like and comment please
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- Big__Boss:
  like and comment pls
  2021-06-18
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SilverAmour
·2021-06-18
Steady
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Spang
·2021-06-18
[惊讶]
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DJBoy
·2021-06-18
Hyperinflation will be the upcoming crisis!! Please reduce your position if possible!!
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JohnsonYeo
·2021-06-18
Good
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LunaLana
·2021-06-18
Nice!
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- Remyy:
  Ok
  2021-06-18
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Janbeans
·2021-06-18
Next few months will be interesting...
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- KryZ:
  Yup. GLTA.
  2021-06-18
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- KryZ:
  lol. why is my comment in chinese???
  2021-06-18
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joelcjr93
·2021-06-18
Nice!
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- 43c0b98:
  I trying to reach mythic 2 lol, i now 344/400 liao
  2021-06-18
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老木不朽
·2021-06-18
Like and comment. Thanks [爱你]
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- gorgonzola:
  hi, plse like and reply. thanks!
  2021-06-18
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Dyylim
·2021-06-18
Keep buying the dip!
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3
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- 43c0b98:
  I trying to reach mythic 2 lol, i now 344/400 liao
  2021-06-18
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EricOh3381
·2021-06-18
please like my comment
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- MrSoh:
  Like and comment
  2021-06-18
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- 老木不朽:
  Like and comment. Thanks ‌[爱你]
  2021-06-18
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  2021-06-18
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e379547
·2021-06-18
Please like and comment
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- e379547:
  Yes
  2021-06-18
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- gorgonzola:
  hi, plse like and reply. thanks!
  2021-06-18
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Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.\nA global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.\nThe size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.\nCentral banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.\n“With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.\nA U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.\nThe pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.\nIn advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.\nWhile central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.\n“I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.\nCentral banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.\n“To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.\nEmerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.\nThe Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.\n“So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”\nBut with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.\nBrazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.\nThe Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.\n“We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”\nTurkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.\nRecent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.\nIn poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.\nCentral banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.\nCentral banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.\nIain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”\n“It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.\nStill, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.\n“This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":164294443,"gmtCreate":1624205587882,"gmtModify":1634009487156,"author":{"id":"3573131687370671","authorId":"3573131687370671","name":"梁娜娜本人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c175437c3baeb766ece91960750b4ec9","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3573131687370671","idStr":"3573131687370671"},"htmlText":"Ok&nbsp;","listText":"Ok&nbsp;","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164294443","repostId":1138044913,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138044913","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624006819,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138044913?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 17:00","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138044913","media":"wsj","summary":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dolla","content":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.<blockquote>尽管Covid-19感染水平仍然很高且本国经济复苏不完全，但蓬勃发展的美国经济正在推高全球通胀并推高美元，这正迫使一些央行加息。</blockquote> The world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.<blockquote>世界各国央行都在关注美联储将如何应对通胀上升，担心陷入美国经济异常扩张的逆流中。全球股市周四下跌，此前美联储官员表示，随着美国经济升温，他们预计将在2023年底前加息，早于3月份的预期。</blockquote> A global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.<blockquote>以美联储为中心的全球加息可能会扼杀一些地方的经济复苏，尤其是在新兴市场债务上升之际。</blockquote> The size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.<blockquote>美国经济规模占世界国内生产总值的近四分之一，其金融市场的重要性长期以来对全球政策制定产生了巨大的影响。但美国今年异常强劲的增长对于仍在从去年的冲击中复苏的世界经济至关重要。根据周三发布的预测，美联储官员预计美国经济今年将增长7%。</blockquote> Central banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.<blockquote>俄罗斯、巴西和土耳其的央行最近几周提高了利率，部分原因是为了抑制今年大宗商品价格飙升引发的通胀。随着世界各地的工厂努力满足美国的需求，从锡到铜等大宗商品的价格飙升。</blockquote> “With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.<blockquote>伦敦牛津经济研究院经济学家塔玛拉·基础·瓦西里耶夫表示：“考虑到疫情带来的所有后果，这些国家现在最不需要的就是收紧政策。”</blockquote> A U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.<blockquote>美国经济繁荣通过增加美国进口和汇款来支持世界各地的经济。但它也推高了借贷成本和通胀，并使美元走强，从而收紧了全球金融状况，抑制了经济复苏。</blockquote> The pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.<blockquote>疼痛感觉不均匀。美元走强损害了以美元借款的新兴市场经济体，同时帮助了欧洲和东亚的大型出口商，这些出口商的产品相对于美国出口更具竞争力。</blockquote> In advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.<blockquote>在发达经济体，央行行长们大多认为，除非消费者预计通胀将持续并要求更高的工资，否则通胀上升将是暂时的。</blockquote> While central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.<blockquote>虽然央行认为这种情况不会很快发生，但一些经济学家认为他们可能会感到惊讶。</blockquote> “I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.<blockquote>法国巴黎银行首席全球经济学家路易吉·斯佩兰萨表示：“我认为这种暂时的价格冲击很可能会变得更加持久。”斯佩兰萨指出，当下一轮薪酬谈判于今年年底开始时，德国的通胀率可能在4%左右。</blockquote> Central banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.<blockquote>经济学家表示，欧洲和日本央行需要配合美联储的鸽派立场，以免本币飙升，从而破坏经济复苏。如果通胀比预期更持久，围绕美联储的微妙舞蹈可能会被打破，这可能会引发加息的连锁反应。</blockquote> “To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.<blockquote>贝莱德宏观研究主管埃尔加·巴奇(Elga Bartsch)表示：“为了防止欧元走强，[欧洲央行]需要像美联储一样采取鸽派立场，由于通胀和增长动态不同，这可能是一场斗争。”</blockquote> Emerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.<blockquote>然而，新兴市场经济体往往没有等待的奢侈。即使是短暂的通胀爆发也会对其货币造成沉重压力，并损害公司和家庭偿还通常以美元或欧元计价的债务的能力。</blockquote> The Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.<blockquote>美联储已表示，将注意避免重演2013年的“缩减恐慌”，当时发展中国家的央行被迫对外国投资的突然撤出做出反应，此前美联储表示正在考虑缩减刺激计划，令投资者感到惊讶。</blockquote> “So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示：“因此，我们对这一过程的意图是有序、有条不紊和透明。”“我可以告诉你，我们看到提前沟通我们的想法是有价值的。我们会尽量说清楚。”</blockquote> But with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.<blockquote>但随着全球通胀加速以及美联储开始改变方针，一些央行的考量正在发生变化。</blockquote> Brazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.<blockquote>巴西央行周三宣布连续第三次加息0.75个百分点，并暗示未来可能会更大幅度加息，因为它正在努力应对8%以上的通胀。</blockquote> The Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.<blockquote>俄罗斯央行今年已三次上调基准利率至5.5%，此前本月通胀率加速至6%以上，为近五年来的最高水平。周二，俄罗斯州长埃尔维拉·纳比乌林娜(Elvira Nabiullina)表示，俄罗斯将继续加息，预计这不会阻碍经济增长。</blockquote> “We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”<blockquote>纳比乌林娜在俄罗斯议会下院发表讲话时表示：“我们在相当长一段时间内一直保持低利率，以确保不会扼杀经济复苏的翅膀。”“现在是加息以应对环境变化和通胀上升的时候了。”</blockquote> Turkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.<blockquote>土耳其央行3月份将主要利率大幅提高至19%，以应对两位数的通胀和里拉贬值。但土耳其里拉最近几周再次面临压力，投资者试图评估央行是否会听从总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的降息要求。</blockquote> Recent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.<blockquote>最近新鲜农产品的价格上涨提高了所谓的罗宋汤套餐——俄罗斯深受喜爱的汤所需的蔬菜——这是许多俄罗斯人的风向标。自年初以来，土豆、卷心菜和胡萝卜的价格上涨了60%至80%。</blockquote> In poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.<blockquote>在贫穷国家，更大份额的支出通常用于食品和能源等必需品，因此当这些价格上涨时，政策制定者会更快地抑制通胀。</blockquote> Central banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.<blockquote>斯堪的纳维亚和韩国央行已暗示计划收紧货币政策，以抑制可能出现的资产泡沫，尤其是房地产泡沫。挪威央行周四暗示将在9月加息。</blockquote> Central banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.<blockquote>包括匈牙利和捷克共和国在内的中欧央行预计也将很快加息。在大流行期间，它们没有遭受与法国和西班牙等欧洲大国相同规模的收缩，但通胀正在上升。</blockquote> Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司固定收益首席投资官Iain Stealey表示，美联储可能会设法避免“缩减恐慌”重演。</blockquote> “It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.<blockquote>“这是一个非常漫长、缓慢的过程……考虑到通胀的意外上行，很难不这样做，”斯蒂利先生说。</blockquote> Still, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.<blockquote>经济学家表示，尽管如此，耐心的方法还是存在问题。</blockquote> “This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.<blockquote>法国兴业银行首席全球经济学家克劳斯·巴德尔表示：“这种让通胀升温的想法……意味着只有当你已经存在通胀问题时，你才会意识到自己存在通胀问题。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRed-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nwsj2021-06-18 17:00\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nA booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.<blockquote>尽管Covid-19感染水平仍然很高且本国经济复苏不完全，但蓬勃发展的美国经济正在推高全球通胀并推高美元，这正迫使一些央行加息。</blockquote> The world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.<blockquote>世界各国央行都在关注美联储将如何应对通胀上升，担心陷入美国经济异常扩张的逆流中。全球股市周四下跌，此前美联储官员表示，随着美国经济升温，他们预计将在2023年底前加息，早于3月份的预期。</blockquote> A global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.<blockquote>以美联储为中心的全球加息可能会扼杀一些地方的经济复苏，尤其是在新兴市场债务上升之际。</blockquote> The size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.<blockquote>美国经济规模占世界国内生产总值的近四分之一，其金融市场的重要性长期以来对全球政策制定产生了巨大的影响。但美国今年异常强劲的增长对于仍在从去年的冲击中复苏的世界经济至关重要。根据周三发布的预测，美联储官员预计美国经济今年将增长7%。</blockquote> Central banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.<blockquote>俄罗斯、巴西和土耳其的央行最近几周提高了利率，部分原因是为了抑制今年大宗商品价格飙升引发的通胀。随着世界各地的工厂努力满足美国的需求，从锡到铜等大宗商品的价格飙升。</blockquote> “With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.<blockquote>伦敦牛津经济研究院经济学家塔玛拉·基础·瓦西里耶夫表示：“考虑到疫情带来的所有后果，这些国家现在最不需要的就是收紧政策。”</blockquote> A U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.<blockquote>美国经济繁荣通过增加美国进口和汇款来支持世界各地的经济。但它也推高了借贷成本和通胀，并使美元走强，从而收紧了全球金融状况，抑制了经济复苏。</blockquote> The pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.<blockquote>疼痛感觉不均匀。美元走强损害了以美元借款的新兴市场经济体，同时帮助了欧洲和东亚的大型出口商，这些出口商的产品相对于美国出口更具竞争力。</blockquote> In advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.<blockquote>在发达经济体，央行行长们大多认为，除非消费者预计通胀将持续并要求更高的工资，否则通胀上升将是暂时的。</blockquote> While central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.<blockquote>虽然央行认为这种情况不会很快发生，但一些经济学家认为他们可能会感到惊讶。</blockquote> “I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.<blockquote>法国巴黎银行首席全球经济学家路易吉·斯佩兰萨表示：“我认为这种暂时的价格冲击很可能会变得更加持久。”斯佩兰萨指出，当下一轮薪酬谈判于今年年底开始时，德国的通胀率可能在4%左右。</blockquote> Central banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.<blockquote>经济学家表示，欧洲和日本央行需要配合美联储的鸽派立场，以免本币飙升，从而破坏经济复苏。如果通胀比预期更持久，围绕美联储的微妙舞蹈可能会被打破，这可能会引发加息的连锁反应。</blockquote> “To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.<blockquote>贝莱德宏观研究主管埃尔加·巴奇(Elga Bartsch)表示：“为了防止欧元走强，[欧洲央行]需要像美联储一样采取鸽派立场，由于通胀和增长动态不同，这可能是一场斗争。”</blockquote> Emerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.<blockquote>然而，新兴市场经济体往往没有等待的奢侈。即使是短暂的通胀爆发也会对其货币造成沉重压力，并损害公司和家庭偿还通常以美元或欧元计价的债务的能力。</blockquote> The Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.<blockquote>美联储已表示，将注意避免重演2013年的“缩减恐慌”，当时发展中国家的央行被迫对外国投资的突然撤出做出反应，此前美联储表示正在考虑缩减刺激计划，令投资者感到惊讶。</blockquote> “So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示：“因此，我们对这一过程的意图是有序、有条不紊和透明。”“我可以告诉你，我们看到提前沟通我们的想法是有价值的。我们会尽量说清楚。”</blockquote> But with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.<blockquote>但随着全球通胀加速以及美联储开始改变方针，一些央行的考量正在发生变化。</blockquote> Brazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.<blockquote>巴西央行周三宣布连续第三次加息0.75个百分点，并暗示未来可能会更大幅度加息，因为它正在努力应对8%以上的通胀。</blockquote> The Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.<blockquote>俄罗斯央行今年已三次上调基准利率至5.5%，此前本月通胀率加速至6%以上，为近五年来的最高水平。周二，俄罗斯州长埃尔维拉·纳比乌林娜(Elvira Nabiullina)表示，俄罗斯将继续加息，预计这不会阻碍经济增长。</blockquote> “We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”<blockquote>纳比乌林娜在俄罗斯议会下院发表讲话时表示：“我们在相当长一段时间内一直保持低利率，以确保不会扼杀经济复苏的翅膀。”“现在是加息以应对环境变化和通胀上升的时候了。”</blockquote> Turkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.<blockquote>土耳其央行3月份将主要利率大幅提高至19%，以应对两位数的通胀和里拉贬值。但土耳其里拉最近几周再次面临压力，投资者试图评估央行是否会听从总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的降息要求。</blockquote> Recent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.<blockquote>最近新鲜农产品的价格上涨提高了所谓的罗宋汤套餐——俄罗斯深受喜爱的汤所需的蔬菜——这是许多俄罗斯人的风向标。自年初以来，土豆、卷心菜和胡萝卜的价格上涨了60%至80%。</blockquote> In poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.<blockquote>在贫穷国家，更大份额的支出通常用于食品和能源等必需品，因此当这些价格上涨时，政策制定者会更快地抑制通胀。</blockquote> Central banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.<blockquote>斯堪的纳维亚和韩国央行已暗示计划收紧货币政策，以抑制可能出现的资产泡沫，尤其是房地产泡沫。挪威央行周四暗示将在9月加息。</blockquote> Central banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.<blockquote>包括匈牙利和捷克共和国在内的中欧央行预计也将很快加息。在大流行期间，它们没有遭受与法国和西班牙等欧洲大国相同规模的收缩，但通胀正在上升。</blockquote> Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司固定收益首席投资官Iain Stealey表示，美联储可能会设法避免“缩减恐慌”重演。</blockquote> “It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.<blockquote>“这是一个非常漫长、缓慢的过程……考虑到通胀的意外上行，很难不这样做，”斯蒂利先生说。</blockquote> Still, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.<blockquote>经济学家表示，尽管如此，耐心的方法还是存在问题。</blockquote> “This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.<blockquote>法国兴业银行首席全球经济学家克劳斯·巴德尔表示：“这种让通胀升温的想法……意味着只有当你已经存在通胀问题时，你才会意识到自己存在通胀问题。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/red-hot-u-s-economy-drives-global-inflation-forcing-foreign-banks-to-act-11623933343?mod=hp_lead_pos6\">wsj</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/red-hot-u-s-economy-drives-global-inflation-forcing-foreign-banks-to-act-11623933343?mod=hp_lead_pos6","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138044913","content_text":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.\nThe world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.\nA global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.\nThe size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.\nCentral banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.\n“With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.\nA U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.\nThe pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.\nIn advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.\nWhile central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.\n“I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.\nCentral banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.\n“To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.\nEmerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.\nThe Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.\n“So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”\nBut with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.\nBrazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.\nThe Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.\n“We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”\nTurkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.\nRecent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.\nIn poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.\nCentral banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.\nCentral banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.\nIain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”\n“It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.\nStill, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.\n“This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":165764281,"gmtCreate":1624158320143,"gmtModify":1634010083883,"author":{"id":"3582002202540727","authorId":"3582002202540727","name":"luv2trade","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd9418c94c88a702c1158f4c6fc5c4ba","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3582002202540727","idStr":"3582002202540727"},"htmlText":"hello","listText":"hello","text":"hello","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165764281","repostId":1138044913,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138044913","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624006819,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138044913?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 17:00","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138044913","media":"wsj","summary":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dolla","content":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.<blockquote>尽管Covid-19感染水平仍然很高且本国经济复苏不完全，但蓬勃发展的美国经济正在推高全球通胀并推高美元，这正迫使一些央行加息。</blockquote> The world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.<blockquote>世界各国央行都在关注美联储将如何应对通胀上升，担心陷入美国经济异常扩张的逆流中。全球股市周四下跌，此前美联储官员表示，随着美国经济升温，他们预计将在2023年底前加息，早于3月份的预期。</blockquote> A global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.<blockquote>以美联储为中心的全球加息可能会扼杀一些地方的经济复苏，尤其是在新兴市场债务上升之际。</blockquote> The size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.<blockquote>美国经济规模占世界国内生产总值的近四分之一，其金融市场的重要性长期以来对全球政策制定产生了巨大的影响。但美国今年异常强劲的增长对于仍在从去年的冲击中复苏的世界经济至关重要。根据周三发布的预测，美联储官员预计美国经济今年将增长7%。</blockquote> Central banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.<blockquote>俄罗斯、巴西和土耳其的央行最近几周提高了利率，部分原因是为了抑制今年大宗商品价格飙升引发的通胀。随着世界各地的工厂努力满足美国的需求，从锡到铜等大宗商品的价格飙升。</blockquote> “With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.<blockquote>伦敦牛津经济研究院经济学家塔玛拉·基础·瓦西里耶夫表示：“考虑到疫情带来的所有后果，这些国家现在最不需要的就是收紧政策。”</blockquote> A U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.<blockquote>美国经济繁荣通过增加美国进口和汇款来支持世界各地的经济。但它也推高了借贷成本和通胀，并使美元走强，从而收紧了全球金融状况，抑制了经济复苏。</blockquote> The pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.<blockquote>疼痛感觉不均匀。美元走强损害了以美元借款的新兴市场经济体，同时帮助了欧洲和东亚的大型出口商，这些出口商的产品相对于美国出口更具竞争力。</blockquote> In advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.<blockquote>在发达经济体，央行行长们大多认为，除非消费者预计通胀将持续并要求更高的工资，否则通胀上升将是暂时的。</blockquote> While central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.<blockquote>虽然央行认为这种情况不会很快发生，但一些经济学家认为他们可能会感到惊讶。</blockquote> “I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.<blockquote>法国巴黎银行首席全球经济学家路易吉·斯佩兰萨表示：“我认为这种暂时的价格冲击很可能会变得更加持久。”斯佩兰萨指出，当下一轮薪酬谈判于今年年底开始时，德国的通胀率可能在4%左右。</blockquote> Central banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.<blockquote>经济学家表示，欧洲和日本央行需要配合美联储的鸽派立场，以免本币飙升，从而破坏经济复苏。如果通胀比预期更持久，围绕美联储的微妙舞蹈可能会被打破，这可能会引发加息的连锁反应。</blockquote> “To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.<blockquote>贝莱德宏观研究主管埃尔加·巴奇(Elga Bartsch)表示：“为了防止欧元走强，[欧洲央行]需要像美联储一样采取鸽派立场，由于通胀和增长动态不同，这可能是一场斗争。”</blockquote> Emerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.<blockquote>然而，新兴市场经济体往往没有等待的奢侈。即使是短暂的通胀爆发也会对其货币造成沉重压力，并损害公司和家庭偿还通常以美元或欧元计价的债务的能力。</blockquote> The Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.<blockquote>美联储已表示，将注意避免重演2013年的“缩减恐慌”，当时发展中国家的央行被迫对外国投资的突然撤出做出反应，此前美联储表示正在考虑缩减刺激计划，令投资者感到惊讶。</blockquote> “So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示：“因此，我们对这一过程的意图是有序、有条不紊和透明。”“我可以告诉你，我们看到提前沟通我们的想法是有价值的。我们会尽量说清楚。”</blockquote> But with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.<blockquote>但随着全球通胀加速以及美联储开始改变方针，一些央行的考量正在发生变化。</blockquote> Brazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.<blockquote>巴西央行周三宣布连续第三次加息0.75个百分点，并暗示未来可能会更大幅度加息，因为它正在努力应对8%以上的通胀。</blockquote> The Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.<blockquote>俄罗斯央行今年已三次上调基准利率至5.5%，此前本月通胀率加速至6%以上，为近五年来的最高水平。周二，俄罗斯州长埃尔维拉·纳比乌林娜(Elvira Nabiullina)表示，俄罗斯将继续加息，预计这不会阻碍经济增长。</blockquote> “We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”<blockquote>纳比乌林娜在俄罗斯议会下院发表讲话时表示：“我们在相当长一段时间内一直保持低利率，以确保不会扼杀经济复苏的翅膀。”“现在是加息以应对环境变化和通胀上升的时候了。”</blockquote> Turkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.<blockquote>土耳其央行3月份将主要利率大幅提高至19%，以应对两位数的通胀和里拉贬值。但土耳其里拉最近几周再次面临压力，投资者试图评估央行是否会听从总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的降息要求。</blockquote> Recent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.<blockquote>最近新鲜农产品的价格上涨提高了所谓的罗宋汤套餐——俄罗斯深受喜爱的汤所需的蔬菜——这是许多俄罗斯人的风向标。自年初以来，土豆、卷心菜和胡萝卜的价格上涨了60%至80%。</blockquote> In poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.<blockquote>在贫穷国家，更大份额的支出通常用于食品和能源等必需品，因此当这些价格上涨时，政策制定者会更快地抑制通胀。</blockquote> Central banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.<blockquote>斯堪的纳维亚和韩国央行已暗示计划收紧货币政策，以抑制可能出现的资产泡沫，尤其是房地产泡沫。挪威央行周四暗示将在9月加息。</blockquote> Central banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.<blockquote>包括匈牙利和捷克共和国在内的中欧央行预计也将很快加息。在大流行期间，它们没有遭受与法国和西班牙等欧洲大国相同规模的收缩，但通胀正在上升。</blockquote> Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司固定收益首席投资官Iain Stealey表示，美联储可能会设法避免“缩减恐慌”重演。</blockquote> “It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.<blockquote>“这是一个非常漫长、缓慢的过程……考虑到通胀的意外上行，很难不这样做，”斯蒂利先生说。</blockquote> Still, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.<blockquote>经济学家表示，尽管如此，耐心的方法还是存在问题。</blockquote> “This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.<blockquote>法国兴业银行首席全球经济学家克劳斯·巴德尔表示：“这种让通胀升温的想法……意味着只有当你已经存在通胀问题时，你才会意识到自己存在通胀问题。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRed-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nwsj2021-06-18 17:00\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nA booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.<blockquote>尽管Covid-19感染水平仍然很高且本国经济复苏不完全，但蓬勃发展的美国经济正在推高全球通胀并推高美元，这正迫使一些央行加息。</blockquote> The world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.<blockquote>世界各国央行都在关注美联储将如何应对通胀上升，担心陷入美国经济异常扩张的逆流中。全球股市周四下跌，此前美联储官员表示，随着美国经济升温，他们预计将在2023年底前加息，早于3月份的预期。</blockquote> A global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.<blockquote>以美联储为中心的全球加息可能会扼杀一些地方的经济复苏，尤其是在新兴市场债务上升之际。</blockquote> The size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.<blockquote>美国经济规模占世界国内生产总值的近四分之一，其金融市场的重要性长期以来对全球政策制定产生了巨大的影响。但美国今年异常强劲的增长对于仍在从去年的冲击中复苏的世界经济至关重要。根据周三发布的预测，美联储官员预计美国经济今年将增长7%。</blockquote> Central banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.<blockquote>俄罗斯、巴西和土耳其的央行最近几周提高了利率，部分原因是为了抑制今年大宗商品价格飙升引发的通胀。随着世界各地的工厂努力满足美国的需求，从锡到铜等大宗商品的价格飙升。</blockquote> “With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.<blockquote>伦敦牛津经济研究院经济学家塔玛拉·基础·瓦西里耶夫表示：“考虑到疫情带来的所有后果，这些国家现在最不需要的就是收紧政策。”</blockquote> A U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.<blockquote>美国经济繁荣通过增加美国进口和汇款来支持世界各地的经济。但它也推高了借贷成本和通胀，并使美元走强，从而收紧了全球金融状况，抑制了经济复苏。</blockquote> The pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.<blockquote>疼痛感觉不均匀。美元走强损害了以美元借款的新兴市场经济体，同时帮助了欧洲和东亚的大型出口商，这些出口商的产品相对于美国出口更具竞争力。</blockquote> In advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.<blockquote>在发达经济体，央行行长们大多认为，除非消费者预计通胀将持续并要求更高的工资，否则通胀上升将是暂时的。</blockquote> While central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.<blockquote>虽然央行认为这种情况不会很快发生，但一些经济学家认为他们可能会感到惊讶。</blockquote> “I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.<blockquote>法国巴黎银行首席全球经济学家路易吉·斯佩兰萨表示：“我认为这种暂时的价格冲击很可能会变得更加持久。”斯佩兰萨指出，当下一轮薪酬谈判于今年年底开始时，德国的通胀率可能在4%左右。</blockquote> Central banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.<blockquote>经济学家表示，欧洲和日本央行需要配合美联储的鸽派立场，以免本币飙升，从而破坏经济复苏。如果通胀比预期更持久，围绕美联储的微妙舞蹈可能会被打破，这可能会引发加息的连锁反应。</blockquote> “To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.<blockquote>贝莱德宏观研究主管埃尔加·巴奇(Elga Bartsch)表示：“为了防止欧元走强，[欧洲央行]需要像美联储一样采取鸽派立场，由于通胀和增长动态不同，这可能是一场斗争。”</blockquote> Emerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.<blockquote>然而，新兴市场经济体往往没有等待的奢侈。即使是短暂的通胀爆发也会对其货币造成沉重压力，并损害公司和家庭偿还通常以美元或欧元计价的债务的能力。</blockquote> The Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.<blockquote>美联储已表示，将注意避免重演2013年的“缩减恐慌”，当时发展中国家的央行被迫对外国投资的突然撤出做出反应，此前美联储表示正在考虑缩减刺激计划，令投资者感到惊讶。</blockquote> “So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示：“因此，我们对这一过程的意图是有序、有条不紊和透明。”“我可以告诉你，我们看到提前沟通我们的想法是有价值的。我们会尽量说清楚。”</blockquote> But with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.<blockquote>但随着全球通胀加速以及美联储开始改变方针，一些央行的考量正在发生变化。</blockquote> Brazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.<blockquote>巴西央行周三宣布连续第三次加息0.75个百分点，并暗示未来可能会更大幅度加息，因为它正在努力应对8%以上的通胀。</blockquote> The Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.<blockquote>俄罗斯央行今年已三次上调基准利率至5.5%，此前本月通胀率加速至6%以上，为近五年来的最高水平。周二，俄罗斯州长埃尔维拉·纳比乌林娜(Elvira Nabiullina)表示，俄罗斯将继续加息，预计这不会阻碍经济增长。</blockquote> “We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”<blockquote>纳比乌林娜在俄罗斯议会下院发表讲话时表示：“我们在相当长一段时间内一直保持低利率，以确保不会扼杀经济复苏的翅膀。”“现在是加息以应对环境变化和通胀上升的时候了。”</blockquote> Turkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.<blockquote>土耳其央行3月份将主要利率大幅提高至19%，以应对两位数的通胀和里拉贬值。但土耳其里拉最近几周再次面临压力，投资者试图评估央行是否会听从总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的降息要求。</blockquote> Recent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.<blockquote>最近新鲜农产品的价格上涨提高了所谓的罗宋汤套餐——俄罗斯深受喜爱的汤所需的蔬菜——这是许多俄罗斯人的风向标。自年初以来，土豆、卷心菜和胡萝卜的价格上涨了60%至80%。</blockquote> In poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.<blockquote>在贫穷国家，更大份额的支出通常用于食品和能源等必需品，因此当这些价格上涨时，政策制定者会更快地抑制通胀。</blockquote> Central banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.<blockquote>斯堪的纳维亚和韩国央行已暗示计划收紧货币政策，以抑制可能出现的资产泡沫，尤其是房地产泡沫。挪威央行周四暗示将在9月加息。</blockquote> Central banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.<blockquote>包括匈牙利和捷克共和国在内的中欧央行预计也将很快加息。在大流行期间，它们没有遭受与法国和西班牙等欧洲大国相同规模的收缩，但通胀正在上升。</blockquote> Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司固定收益首席投资官Iain Stealey表示，美联储可能会设法避免“缩减恐慌”重演。</blockquote> “It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.<blockquote>“这是一个非常漫长、缓慢的过程……考虑到通胀的意外上行，很难不这样做，”斯蒂利先生说。</blockquote> Still, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.<blockquote>经济学家表示，尽管如此，耐心的方法还是存在问题。</blockquote> “This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.<blockquote>法国兴业银行首席全球经济学家克劳斯·巴德尔表示：“这种让通胀升温的想法……意味着只有当你已经存在通胀问题时，你才会意识到自己存在通胀问题。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/red-hot-u-s-economy-drives-global-inflation-forcing-foreign-banks-to-act-11623933343?mod=hp_lead_pos6\">wsj</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/red-hot-u-s-economy-drives-global-inflation-forcing-foreign-banks-to-act-11623933343?mod=hp_lead_pos6","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138044913","content_text":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.\nThe world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.\nA global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.\nThe size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.\nCentral banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.\n“With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.\nA U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.\nThe pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.\nIn advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.\nWhile central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.\n“I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.\nCentral banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.\n“To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.\nEmerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.\nThe Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.\n“So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”\nBut with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.\nBrazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.\nThe Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.\n“We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”\nTurkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.\nRecent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.\nIn poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.\nCentral banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.\nCentral banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.\nIain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”\n“It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.\nStill, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.\n“This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4944655,"gmtCreate":1624321913033,"gmtModify":1635253015150,"authorId":3581585579569862,"author":{"id":3581585579569862,"idStr":"3581585579569862","authorId":3581585579569862,"name":"deal2deal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46b0ad63eb20fcaf159e0e315b10d93d","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":165764281,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile]cool","text":"[Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile]cool","html":"[Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile][Smile]cool"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":162404621,"gmtCreate":1624070134063,"gmtModify":1634011117474,"author":{"id":"3586565070413371","authorId":"3586565070413371","name":"Orangejus","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3586565070413371","idStr":"3586565070413371"},"htmlText":"Looks like Turkey&nbsp;is getting roasted…","listText":"Looks like Turkey&nbsp;is getting roasted…","text":"Looks like Turkey is getting roasted…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162404621","repostId":1138044913,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138044913","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624006819,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138044913?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 17:00","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138044913","media":"wsj","summary":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dolla","content":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.<blockquote>尽管Covid-19感染水平仍然很高且本国经济复苏不完全，但蓬勃发展的美国经济正在推高全球通胀并推高美元，这正迫使一些央行加息。</blockquote> The world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.<blockquote>世界各国央行都在关注美联储将如何应对通胀上升，担心陷入美国经济异常扩张的逆流中。全球股市周四下跌，此前美联储官员表示，随着美国经济升温，他们预计将在2023年底前加息，早于3月份的预期。</blockquote> A global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.<blockquote>以美联储为中心的全球加息可能会扼杀一些地方的经济复苏，尤其是在新兴市场债务上升之际。</blockquote> The size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.<blockquote>美国经济规模占世界国内生产总值的近四分之一，其金融市场的重要性长期以来对全球政策制定产生了巨大的影响。但美国今年异常强劲的增长对于仍在从去年的冲击中复苏的世界经济至关重要。根据周三发布的预测，美联储官员预计美国经济今年将增长7%。</blockquote> Central banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.<blockquote>俄罗斯、巴西和土耳其的央行最近几周提高了利率，部分原因是为了抑制今年大宗商品价格飙升引发的通胀。随着世界各地的工厂努力满足美国的需求，从锡到铜等大宗商品的价格飙升。</blockquote> “With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.<blockquote>伦敦牛津经济研究院经济学家塔玛拉·基础·瓦西里耶夫表示：“考虑到疫情带来的所有后果，这些国家现在最不需要的就是收紧政策。”</blockquote> A U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.<blockquote>美国经济繁荣通过增加美国进口和汇款来支持世界各地的经济。但它也推高了借贷成本和通胀，并使美元走强，从而收紧了全球金融状况，抑制了经济复苏。</blockquote> The pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.<blockquote>疼痛感觉不均匀。美元走强损害了以美元借款的新兴市场经济体，同时帮助了欧洲和东亚的大型出口商，这些出口商的产品相对于美国出口更具竞争力。</blockquote> In advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.<blockquote>在发达经济体，央行行长们大多认为，除非消费者预计通胀将持续并要求更高的工资，否则通胀上升将是暂时的。</blockquote> While central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.<blockquote>虽然央行认为这种情况不会很快发生，但一些经济学家认为他们可能会感到惊讶。</blockquote> “I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.<blockquote>法国巴黎银行首席全球经济学家路易吉·斯佩兰萨表示：“我认为这种暂时的价格冲击很可能会变得更加持久。”斯佩兰萨指出，当下一轮薪酬谈判于今年年底开始时，德国的通胀率可能在4%左右。</blockquote> Central banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.<blockquote>经济学家表示，欧洲和日本央行需要配合美联储的鸽派立场，以免本币飙升，从而破坏经济复苏。如果通胀比预期更持久，围绕美联储的微妙舞蹈可能会被打破，这可能会引发加息的连锁反应。</blockquote> “To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.<blockquote>贝莱德宏观研究主管埃尔加·巴奇(Elga Bartsch)表示：“为了防止欧元走强，[欧洲央行]需要像美联储一样采取鸽派立场，由于通胀和增长动态不同，这可能是一场斗争。”</blockquote> Emerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.<blockquote>然而，新兴市场经济体往往没有等待的奢侈。即使是短暂的通胀爆发也会对其货币造成沉重压力，并损害公司和家庭偿还通常以美元或欧元计价的债务的能力。</blockquote> The Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.<blockquote>美联储已表示，将注意避免重演2013年的“缩减恐慌”，当时发展中国家的央行被迫对外国投资的突然撤出做出反应，此前美联储表示正在考虑缩减刺激计划，令投资者感到惊讶。</blockquote> “So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示：“因此，我们对这一过程的意图是有序、有条不紊和透明。”“我可以告诉你，我们看到提前沟通我们的想法是有价值的。我们会尽量说清楚。”</blockquote> But with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.<blockquote>但随着全球通胀加速以及美联储开始改变方针，一些央行的考量正在发生变化。</blockquote> Brazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.<blockquote>巴西央行周三宣布连续第三次加息0.75个百分点，并暗示未来可能会更大幅度加息，因为它正在努力应对8%以上的通胀。</blockquote> The Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.<blockquote>俄罗斯央行今年已三次上调基准利率至5.5%，此前本月通胀率加速至6%以上，为近五年来的最高水平。周二，俄罗斯州长埃尔维拉·纳比乌林娜(Elvira Nabiullina)表示，俄罗斯将继续加息，预计这不会阻碍经济增长。</blockquote> “We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”<blockquote>纳比乌林娜在俄罗斯议会下院发表讲话时表示：“我们在相当长一段时间内一直保持低利率，以确保不会扼杀经济复苏的翅膀。”“现在是加息以应对环境变化和通胀上升的时候了。”</blockquote> Turkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.<blockquote>土耳其央行3月份将主要利率大幅提高至19%，以应对两位数的通胀和里拉贬值。但土耳其里拉最近几周再次面临压力，投资者试图评估央行是否会听从总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的降息要求。</blockquote> Recent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.<blockquote>最近新鲜农产品的价格上涨提高了所谓的罗宋汤套餐——俄罗斯深受喜爱的汤所需的蔬菜——这是许多俄罗斯人的风向标。自年初以来，土豆、卷心菜和胡萝卜的价格上涨了60%至80%。</blockquote> In poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.<blockquote>在贫穷国家，更大份额的支出通常用于食品和能源等必需品，因此当这些价格上涨时，政策制定者会更快地抑制通胀。</blockquote> Central banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.<blockquote>斯堪的纳维亚和韩国央行已暗示计划收紧货币政策，以抑制可能出现的资产泡沫，尤其是房地产泡沫。挪威央行周四暗示将在9月加息。</blockquote> Central banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.<blockquote>包括匈牙利和捷克共和国在内的中欧央行预计也将很快加息。在大流行期间，它们没有遭受与法国和西班牙等欧洲大国相同规模的收缩，但通胀正在上升。</blockquote> Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司固定收益首席投资官Iain Stealey表示，美联储可能会设法避免“缩减恐慌”重演。</blockquote> “It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.<blockquote>“这是一个非常漫长、缓慢的过程……考虑到通胀的意外上行，很难不这样做，”斯蒂利先生说。</blockquote> Still, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.<blockquote>经济学家表示，尽管如此，耐心的方法还是存在问题。</blockquote> “This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.<blockquote>法国兴业银行首席全球经济学家克劳斯·巴德尔表示：“这种让通胀升温的想法……意味着只有当你已经存在通胀问题时，你才会意识到自己存在通胀问题。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRed-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nwsj2021-06-18 17:00\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nA booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.<blockquote>尽管Covid-19感染水平仍然很高且本国经济复苏不完全，但蓬勃发展的美国经济正在推高全球通胀并推高美元，这正迫使一些央行加息。</blockquote> The world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.<blockquote>世界各国央行都在关注美联储将如何应对通胀上升，担心陷入美国经济异常扩张的逆流中。全球股市周四下跌，此前美联储官员表示，随着美国经济升温，他们预计将在2023年底前加息，早于3月份的预期。</blockquote> A global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.<blockquote>以美联储为中心的全球加息可能会扼杀一些地方的经济复苏，尤其是在新兴市场债务上升之际。</blockquote> The size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.<blockquote>美国经济规模占世界国内生产总值的近四分之一，其金融市场的重要性长期以来对全球政策制定产生了巨大的影响。但美国今年异常强劲的增长对于仍在从去年的冲击中复苏的世界经济至关重要。根据周三发布的预测，美联储官员预计美国经济今年将增长7%。</blockquote> Central banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.<blockquote>俄罗斯、巴西和土耳其的央行最近几周提高了利率，部分原因是为了抑制今年大宗商品价格飙升引发的通胀。随着世界各地的工厂努力满足美国的需求，从锡到铜等大宗商品的价格飙升。</blockquote> “With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.<blockquote>伦敦牛津经济研究院经济学家塔玛拉·基础·瓦西里耶夫表示：“考虑到疫情带来的所有后果，这些国家现在最不需要的就是收紧政策。”</blockquote> A U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.<blockquote>美国经济繁荣通过增加美国进口和汇款来支持世界各地的经济。但它也推高了借贷成本和通胀，并使美元走强，从而收紧了全球金融状况，抑制了经济复苏。</blockquote> The pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.<blockquote>疼痛感觉不均匀。美元走强损害了以美元借款的新兴市场经济体，同时帮助了欧洲和东亚的大型出口商，这些出口商的产品相对于美国出口更具竞争力。</blockquote> In advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.<blockquote>在发达经济体，央行行长们大多认为，除非消费者预计通胀将持续并要求更高的工资，否则通胀上升将是暂时的。</blockquote> While central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.<blockquote>虽然央行认为这种情况不会很快发生，但一些经济学家认为他们可能会感到惊讶。</blockquote> “I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.<blockquote>法国巴黎银行首席全球经济学家路易吉·斯佩兰萨表示：“我认为这种暂时的价格冲击很可能会变得更加持久。”斯佩兰萨指出，当下一轮薪酬谈判于今年年底开始时，德国的通胀率可能在4%左右。</blockquote> Central banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.<blockquote>经济学家表示，欧洲和日本央行需要配合美联储的鸽派立场，以免本币飙升，从而破坏经济复苏。如果通胀比预期更持久，围绕美联储的微妙舞蹈可能会被打破，这可能会引发加息的连锁反应。</blockquote> “To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.<blockquote>贝莱德宏观研究主管埃尔加·巴奇(Elga Bartsch)表示：“为了防止欧元走强，[欧洲央行]需要像美联储一样采取鸽派立场，由于通胀和增长动态不同，这可能是一场斗争。”</blockquote> Emerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.<blockquote>然而，新兴市场经济体往往没有等待的奢侈。即使是短暂的通胀爆发也会对其货币造成沉重压力，并损害公司和家庭偿还通常以美元或欧元计价的债务的能力。</blockquote> The Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.<blockquote>美联储已表示，将注意避免重演2013年的“缩减恐慌”，当时发展中国家的央行被迫对外国投资的突然撤出做出反应，此前美联储表示正在考虑缩减刺激计划，令投资者感到惊讶。</blockquote> “So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示：“因此，我们对这一过程的意图是有序、有条不紊和透明。”“我可以告诉你，我们看到提前沟通我们的想法是有价值的。我们会尽量说清楚。”</blockquote> But with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.<blockquote>但随着全球通胀加速以及美联储开始改变方针，一些央行的考量正在发生变化。</blockquote> Brazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.<blockquote>巴西央行周三宣布连续第三次加息0.75个百分点，并暗示未来可能会更大幅度加息，因为它正在努力应对8%以上的通胀。</blockquote> The Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.<blockquote>俄罗斯央行今年已三次上调基准利率至5.5%，此前本月通胀率加速至6%以上，为近五年来的最高水平。周二，俄罗斯州长埃尔维拉·纳比乌林娜(Elvira Nabiullina)表示，俄罗斯将继续加息，预计这不会阻碍经济增长。</blockquote> “We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”<blockquote>纳比乌林娜在俄罗斯议会下院发表讲话时表示：“我们在相当长一段时间内一直保持低利率，以确保不会扼杀经济复苏的翅膀。”“现在是加息以应对环境变化和通胀上升的时候了。”</blockquote> Turkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.<blockquote>土耳其央行3月份将主要利率大幅提高至19%，以应对两位数的通胀和里拉贬值。但土耳其里拉最近几周再次面临压力，投资者试图评估央行是否会听从总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的降息要求。</blockquote> Recent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.<blockquote>最近新鲜农产品的价格上涨提高了所谓的罗宋汤套餐——俄罗斯深受喜爱的汤所需的蔬菜——这是许多俄罗斯人的风向标。自年初以来，土豆、卷心菜和胡萝卜的价格上涨了60%至80%。</blockquote> In poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.<blockquote>在贫穷国家，更大份额的支出通常用于食品和能源等必需品，因此当这些价格上涨时，政策制定者会更快地抑制通胀。</blockquote> Central banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.<blockquote>斯堪的纳维亚和韩国央行已暗示计划收紧货币政策，以抑制可能出现的资产泡沫，尤其是房地产泡沫。挪威央行周四暗示将在9月加息。</blockquote> Central banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.<blockquote>包括匈牙利和捷克共和国在内的中欧央行预计也将很快加息。在大流行期间，它们没有遭受与法国和西班牙等欧洲大国相同规模的收缩，但通胀正在上升。</blockquote> Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司固定收益首席投资官Iain Stealey表示，美联储可能会设法避免“缩减恐慌”重演。</blockquote> “It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.<blockquote>“这是一个非常漫长、缓慢的过程……考虑到通胀的意外上行，很难不这样做，”斯蒂利先生说。</blockquote> Still, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.<blockquote>经济学家表示，尽管如此，耐心的方法还是存在问题。</blockquote> “This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.<blockquote>法国兴业银行首席全球经济学家克劳斯·巴德尔表示：“这种让通胀升温的想法……意味着只有当你已经存在通胀问题时，你才会意识到自己存在通胀问题。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/red-hot-u-s-economy-drives-global-inflation-forcing-foreign-banks-to-act-11623933343?mod=hp_lead_pos6\">wsj</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/red-hot-u-s-economy-drives-global-inflation-forcing-foreign-banks-to-act-11623933343?mod=hp_lead_pos6","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138044913","content_text":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.\nThe world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.\nA global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.\nThe size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.\nCentral banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.\n“With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.\nA U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.\nThe pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.\nIn advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.\nWhile central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.\n“I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.\nCentral banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.\n“To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.\nEmerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.\nThe Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.\n“So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”\nBut with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.\nBrazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.\nThe Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.\n“We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”\nTurkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.\nRecent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.\nIn poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.\nCentral banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.\nCentral banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.\nIain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”\n“It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.\nStill, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.\n“This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":166573051,"gmtCreate":1624020158973,"gmtModify":1634024034347,"author":{"id":"3586409610140134","authorId":"3586409610140134","name":"Felixpow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a3007d4a16bb4b548591e43d3506ea8","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3586409610140134","idStr":"3586409610140134"},"htmlText":"cool","listText":"cool","text":"cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166573051","repostId":1138044913,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138044913","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624006819,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138044913?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 17:00","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138044913","media":"wsj","summary":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dolla","content":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.<blockquote>尽管Covid-19感染水平仍然很高且本国经济复苏不完全，但蓬勃发展的美国经济正在推高全球通胀并推高美元，这正迫使一些央行加息。</blockquote> The world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.<blockquote>世界各国央行都在关注美联储将如何应对通胀上升，担心陷入美国经济异常扩张的逆流中。全球股市周四下跌，此前美联储官员表示，随着美国经济升温，他们预计将在2023年底前加息，早于3月份的预期。</blockquote> A global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.<blockquote>以美联储为中心的全球加息可能会扼杀一些地方的经济复苏，尤其是在新兴市场债务上升之际。</blockquote> The size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.<blockquote>美国经济规模占世界国内生产总值的近四分之一，其金融市场的重要性长期以来对全球政策制定产生了巨大的影响。但美国今年异常强劲的增长对于仍在从去年的冲击中复苏的世界经济至关重要。根据周三发布的预测，美联储官员预计美国经济今年将增长7%。</blockquote> Central banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.<blockquote>俄罗斯、巴西和土耳其的央行最近几周提高了利率，部分原因是为了抑制今年大宗商品价格飙升引发的通胀。随着世界各地的工厂努力满足美国的需求，从锡到铜等大宗商品的价格飙升。</blockquote> “With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.<blockquote>伦敦牛津经济研究院经济学家塔玛拉·基础·瓦西里耶夫表示：“考虑到疫情带来的所有后果，这些国家现在最不需要的就是收紧政策。”</blockquote> A U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.<blockquote>美国经济繁荣通过增加美国进口和汇款来支持世界各地的经济。但它也推高了借贷成本和通胀，并使美元走强，从而收紧了全球金融状况，抑制了经济复苏。</blockquote> The pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.<blockquote>疼痛感觉不均匀。美元走强损害了以美元借款的新兴市场经济体，同时帮助了欧洲和东亚的大型出口商，这些出口商的产品相对于美国出口更具竞争力。</blockquote> In advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.<blockquote>在发达经济体，央行行长们大多认为，除非消费者预计通胀将持续并要求更高的工资，否则通胀上升将是暂时的。</blockquote> While central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.<blockquote>虽然央行认为这种情况不会很快发生，但一些经济学家认为他们可能会感到惊讶。</blockquote> “I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.<blockquote>法国巴黎银行首席全球经济学家路易吉·斯佩兰萨表示：“我认为这种暂时的价格冲击很可能会变得更加持久。”斯佩兰萨指出，当下一轮薪酬谈判于今年年底开始时，德国的通胀率可能在4%左右。</blockquote> Central banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.<blockquote>经济学家表示，欧洲和日本央行需要配合美联储的鸽派立场，以免本币飙升，从而破坏经济复苏。如果通胀比预期更持久，围绕美联储的微妙舞蹈可能会被打破，这可能会引发加息的连锁反应。</blockquote> “To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.<blockquote>贝莱德宏观研究主管埃尔加·巴奇(Elga Bartsch)表示：“为了防止欧元走强，[欧洲央行]需要像美联储一样采取鸽派立场，由于通胀和增长动态不同，这可能是一场斗争。”</blockquote> Emerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.<blockquote>然而，新兴市场经济体往往没有等待的奢侈。即使是短暂的通胀爆发也会对其货币造成沉重压力，并损害公司和家庭偿还通常以美元或欧元计价的债务的能力。</blockquote> The Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.<blockquote>美联储已表示，将注意避免重演2013年的“缩减恐慌”，当时发展中国家的央行被迫对外国投资的突然撤出做出反应，此前美联储表示正在考虑缩减刺激计划，令投资者感到惊讶。</blockquote> “So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示：“因此，我们对这一过程的意图是有序、有条不紊和透明。”“我可以告诉你，我们看到提前沟通我们的想法是有价值的。我们会尽量说清楚。”</blockquote> But with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.<blockquote>但随着全球通胀加速以及美联储开始改变方针，一些央行的考量正在发生变化。</blockquote> Brazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.<blockquote>巴西央行周三宣布连续第三次加息0.75个百分点，并暗示未来可能会更大幅度加息，因为它正在努力应对8%以上的通胀。</blockquote> The Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.<blockquote>俄罗斯央行今年已三次上调基准利率至5.5%，此前本月通胀率加速至6%以上，为近五年来的最高水平。周二，俄罗斯州长埃尔维拉·纳比乌林娜(Elvira Nabiullina)表示，俄罗斯将继续加息，预计这不会阻碍经济增长。</blockquote> “We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”<blockquote>纳比乌林娜在俄罗斯议会下院发表讲话时表示：“我们在相当长一段时间内一直保持低利率，以确保不会扼杀经济复苏的翅膀。”“现在是加息以应对环境变化和通胀上升的时候了。”</blockquote> Turkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.<blockquote>土耳其央行3月份将主要利率大幅提高至19%，以应对两位数的通胀和里拉贬值。但土耳其里拉最近几周再次面临压力，投资者试图评估央行是否会听从总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的降息要求。</blockquote> Recent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.<blockquote>最近新鲜农产品的价格上涨提高了所谓的罗宋汤套餐——俄罗斯深受喜爱的汤所需的蔬菜——这是许多俄罗斯人的风向标。自年初以来，土豆、卷心菜和胡萝卜的价格上涨了60%至80%。</blockquote> In poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.<blockquote>在贫穷国家，更大份额的支出通常用于食品和能源等必需品，因此当这些价格上涨时，政策制定者会更快地抑制通胀。</blockquote> Central banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.<blockquote>斯堪的纳维亚和韩国央行已暗示计划收紧货币政策，以抑制可能出现的资产泡沫，尤其是房地产泡沫。挪威央行周四暗示将在9月加息。</blockquote> Central banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.<blockquote>包括匈牙利和捷克共和国在内的中欧央行预计也将很快加息。在大流行期间，它们没有遭受与法国和西班牙等欧洲大国相同规模的收缩，但通胀正在上升。</blockquote> Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司固定收益首席投资官Iain Stealey表示，美联储可能会设法避免“缩减恐慌”重演。</blockquote> “It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.<blockquote>“这是一个非常漫长、缓慢的过程……考虑到通胀的意外上行，很难不这样做，”斯蒂利先生说。</blockquote> Still, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.<blockquote>经济学家表示，尽管如此，耐心的方法还是存在问题。</blockquote> “This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.<blockquote>法国兴业银行首席全球经济学家克劳斯·巴德尔表示：“这种让通胀升温的想法……意味着只有当你已经存在通胀问题时，你才会意识到自己存在通胀问题。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRed-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nwsj2021-06-18 17:00\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nA booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.<blockquote>尽管Covid-19感染水平仍然很高且本国经济复苏不完全，但蓬勃发展的美国经济正在推高全球通胀并推高美元，这正迫使一些央行加息。</blockquote> The world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.<blockquote>世界各国央行都在关注美联储将如何应对通胀上升，担心陷入美国经济异常扩张的逆流中。全球股市周四下跌，此前美联储官员表示，随着美国经济升温，他们预计将在2023年底前加息，早于3月份的预期。</blockquote> A global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.<blockquote>以美联储为中心的全球加息可能会扼杀一些地方的经济复苏，尤其是在新兴市场债务上升之际。</blockquote> The size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.<blockquote>美国经济规模占世界国内生产总值的近四分之一，其金融市场的重要性长期以来对全球政策制定产生了巨大的影响。但美国今年异常强劲的增长对于仍在从去年的冲击中复苏的世界经济至关重要。根据周三发布的预测，美联储官员预计美国经济今年将增长7%。</blockquote> Central banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.<blockquote>俄罗斯、巴西和土耳其的央行最近几周提高了利率，部分原因是为了抑制今年大宗商品价格飙升引发的通胀。随着世界各地的工厂努力满足美国的需求，从锡到铜等大宗商品的价格飙升。</blockquote> “With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.<blockquote>伦敦牛津经济研究院经济学家塔玛拉·基础·瓦西里耶夫表示：“考虑到疫情带来的所有后果，这些国家现在最不需要的就是收紧政策。”</blockquote> A U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.<blockquote>美国经济繁荣通过增加美国进口和汇款来支持世界各地的经济。但它也推高了借贷成本和通胀，并使美元走强，从而收紧了全球金融状况，抑制了经济复苏。</blockquote> The pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.<blockquote>疼痛感觉不均匀。美元走强损害了以美元借款的新兴市场经济体，同时帮助了欧洲和东亚的大型出口商，这些出口商的产品相对于美国出口更具竞争力。</blockquote> In advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.<blockquote>在发达经济体，央行行长们大多认为，除非消费者预计通胀将持续并要求更高的工资，否则通胀上升将是暂时的。</blockquote> While central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.<blockquote>虽然央行认为这种情况不会很快发生，但一些经济学家认为他们可能会感到惊讶。</blockquote> “I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.<blockquote>法国巴黎银行首席全球经济学家路易吉·斯佩兰萨表示：“我认为这种暂时的价格冲击很可能会变得更加持久。”斯佩兰萨指出，当下一轮薪酬谈判于今年年底开始时，德国的通胀率可能在4%左右。</blockquote> Central banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.<blockquote>经济学家表示，欧洲和日本央行需要配合美联储的鸽派立场，以免本币飙升，从而破坏经济复苏。如果通胀比预期更持久，围绕美联储的微妙舞蹈可能会被打破，这可能会引发加息的连锁反应。</blockquote> “To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.<blockquote>贝莱德宏观研究主管埃尔加·巴奇(Elga Bartsch)表示：“为了防止欧元走强，[欧洲央行]需要像美联储一样采取鸽派立场，由于通胀和增长动态不同，这可能是一场斗争。”</blockquote> Emerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.<blockquote>然而，新兴市场经济体往往没有等待的奢侈。即使是短暂的通胀爆发也会对其货币造成沉重压力，并损害公司和家庭偿还通常以美元或欧元计价的债务的能力。</blockquote> The Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.<blockquote>美联储已表示，将注意避免重演2013年的“缩减恐慌”，当时发展中国家的央行被迫对外国投资的突然撤出做出反应，此前美联储表示正在考虑缩减刺激计划，令投资者感到惊讶。</blockquote> “So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示：“因此，我们对这一过程的意图是有序、有条不紊和透明。”“我可以告诉你，我们看到提前沟通我们的想法是有价值的。我们会尽量说清楚。”</blockquote> But with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.<blockquote>但随着全球通胀加速以及美联储开始改变方针，一些央行的考量正在发生变化。</blockquote> Brazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.<blockquote>巴西央行周三宣布连续第三次加息0.75个百分点，并暗示未来可能会更大幅度加息，因为它正在努力应对8%以上的通胀。</blockquote> The Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.<blockquote>俄罗斯央行今年已三次上调基准利率至5.5%，此前本月通胀率加速至6%以上，为近五年来的最高水平。周二，俄罗斯州长埃尔维拉·纳比乌林娜(Elvira Nabiullina)表示，俄罗斯将继续加息，预计这不会阻碍经济增长。</blockquote> “We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”<blockquote>纳比乌林娜在俄罗斯议会下院发表讲话时表示：“我们在相当长一段时间内一直保持低利率，以确保不会扼杀经济复苏的翅膀。”“现在是加息以应对环境变化和通胀上升的时候了。”</blockquote> Turkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.<blockquote>土耳其央行3月份将主要利率大幅提高至19%，以应对两位数的通胀和里拉贬值。但土耳其里拉最近几周再次面临压力，投资者试图评估央行是否会听从总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的降息要求。</blockquote> Recent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.<blockquote>最近新鲜农产品的价格上涨提高了所谓的罗宋汤套餐——俄罗斯深受喜爱的汤所需的蔬菜——这是许多俄罗斯人的风向标。自年初以来，土豆、卷心菜和胡萝卜的价格上涨了60%至80%。</blockquote> In poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.<blockquote>在贫穷国家，更大份额的支出通常用于食品和能源等必需品，因此当这些价格上涨时，政策制定者会更快地抑制通胀。</blockquote> Central banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.<blockquote>斯堪的纳维亚和韩国央行已暗示计划收紧货币政策，以抑制可能出现的资产泡沫，尤其是房地产泡沫。挪威央行周四暗示将在9月加息。</blockquote> Central banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.<blockquote>包括匈牙利和捷克共和国在内的中欧央行预计也将很快加息。在大流行期间，它们没有遭受与法国和西班牙等欧洲大国相同规模的收缩，但通胀正在上升。</blockquote> Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司固定收益首席投资官Iain Stealey表示，美联储可能会设法避免“缩减恐慌”重演。</blockquote> “It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.<blockquote>“这是一个非常漫长、缓慢的过程……考虑到通胀的意外上行，很难不这样做，”斯蒂利先生说。</blockquote> Still, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.<blockquote>经济学家表示，尽管如此，耐心的方法还是存在问题。</blockquote> “This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.<blockquote>法国兴业银行首席全球经济学家克劳斯·巴德尔表示：“这种让通胀升温的想法……意味着只有当你已经存在通胀问题时，你才会意识到自己存在通胀问题。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/red-hot-u-s-economy-drives-global-inflation-forcing-foreign-banks-to-act-11623933343?mod=hp_lead_pos6\">wsj</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/red-hot-u-s-economy-drives-global-inflation-forcing-foreign-banks-to-act-11623933343?mod=hp_lead_pos6","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138044913","content_text":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.\nThe world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.\nA global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.\nThe size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.\nCentral banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.\n“With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.\nA U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.\nThe pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.\nIn advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.\nWhile central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.\n“I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.\nCentral banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.\n“To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.\nEmerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.\nThe Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.\n“So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”\nBut with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.\nBrazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.\nThe Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.\n“We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”\nTurkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.\nRecent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.\nIn poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.\nCentral banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.\nCentral banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.\nIain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”\n“It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.\nStill, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.\n“This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":166579625,"gmtCreate":1624020145367,"gmtModify":1634024034926,"author":{"id":"3586409610140134","authorId":"3586409610140134","name":"Felixpow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a3007d4a16bb4b548591e43d3506ea8","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3586409610140134","idStr":"3586409610140134"},"htmlText":"cool","listText":"cool","text":"cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166579625","repostId":1138044913,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138044913","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624006819,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138044913?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 17:00","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138044913","media":"wsj","summary":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dolla","content":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.<blockquote>尽管Covid-19感染水平仍然很高且本国经济复苏不完全，但蓬勃发展的美国经济正在推高全球通胀并推高美元，这正迫使一些央行加息。</blockquote> The world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.<blockquote>世界各国央行都在关注美联储将如何应对通胀上升，担心陷入美国经济异常扩张的逆流中。全球股市周四下跌，此前美联储官员表示，随着美国经济升温，他们预计将在2023年底前加息，早于3月份的预期。</blockquote> A global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.<blockquote>以美联储为中心的全球加息可能会扼杀一些地方的经济复苏，尤其是在新兴市场债务上升之际。</blockquote> The size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.<blockquote>美国经济规模占世界国内生产总值的近四分之一，其金融市场的重要性长期以来对全球政策制定产生了巨大的影响。但美国今年异常强劲的增长对于仍在从去年的冲击中复苏的世界经济至关重要。根据周三发布的预测，美联储官员预计美国经济今年将增长7%。</blockquote> Central banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.<blockquote>俄罗斯、巴西和土耳其的央行最近几周提高了利率，部分原因是为了抑制今年大宗商品价格飙升引发的通胀。随着世界各地的工厂努力满足美国的需求，从锡到铜等大宗商品的价格飙升。</blockquote> “With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.<blockquote>伦敦牛津经济研究院经济学家塔玛拉·基础·瓦西里耶夫表示：“考虑到疫情带来的所有后果，这些国家现在最不需要的就是收紧政策。”</blockquote> A U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.<blockquote>美国经济繁荣通过增加美国进口和汇款来支持世界各地的经济。但它也推高了借贷成本和通胀，并使美元走强，从而收紧了全球金融状况，抑制了经济复苏。</blockquote> The pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.<blockquote>疼痛感觉不均匀。美元走强损害了以美元借款的新兴市场经济体，同时帮助了欧洲和东亚的大型出口商，这些出口商的产品相对于美国出口更具竞争力。</blockquote> In advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.<blockquote>在发达经济体，央行行长们大多认为，除非消费者预计通胀将持续并要求更高的工资，否则通胀上升将是暂时的。</blockquote> While central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.<blockquote>虽然央行认为这种情况不会很快发生，但一些经济学家认为他们可能会感到惊讶。</blockquote> “I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.<blockquote>法国巴黎银行首席全球经济学家路易吉·斯佩兰萨表示：“我认为这种暂时的价格冲击很可能会变得更加持久。”斯佩兰萨指出，当下一轮薪酬谈判于今年年底开始时，德国的通胀率可能在4%左右。</blockquote> Central banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.<blockquote>经济学家表示，欧洲和日本央行需要配合美联储的鸽派立场，以免本币飙升，从而破坏经济复苏。如果通胀比预期更持久，围绕美联储的微妙舞蹈可能会被打破，这可能会引发加息的连锁反应。</blockquote> “To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.<blockquote>贝莱德宏观研究主管埃尔加·巴奇(Elga Bartsch)表示：“为了防止欧元走强，[欧洲央行]需要像美联储一样采取鸽派立场，由于通胀和增长动态不同，这可能是一场斗争。”</blockquote> Emerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.<blockquote>然而，新兴市场经济体往往没有等待的奢侈。即使是短暂的通胀爆发也会对其货币造成沉重压力，并损害公司和家庭偿还通常以美元或欧元计价的债务的能力。</blockquote> The Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.<blockquote>美联储已表示，将注意避免重演2013年的“缩减恐慌”，当时发展中国家的央行被迫对外国投资的突然撤出做出反应，此前美联储表示正在考虑缩减刺激计划，令投资者感到惊讶。</blockquote> “So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示：“因此，我们对这一过程的意图是有序、有条不紊和透明。”“我可以告诉你，我们看到提前沟通我们的想法是有价值的。我们会尽量说清楚。”</blockquote> But with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.<blockquote>但随着全球通胀加速以及美联储开始改变方针，一些央行的考量正在发生变化。</blockquote> Brazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.<blockquote>巴西央行周三宣布连续第三次加息0.75个百分点，并暗示未来可能会更大幅度加息，因为它正在努力应对8%以上的通胀。</blockquote> The Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.<blockquote>俄罗斯央行今年已三次上调基准利率至5.5%，此前本月通胀率加速至6%以上，为近五年来的最高水平。周二，俄罗斯州长埃尔维拉·纳比乌林娜(Elvira Nabiullina)表示，俄罗斯将继续加息，预计这不会阻碍经济增长。</blockquote> “We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”<blockquote>纳比乌林娜在俄罗斯议会下院发表讲话时表示：“我们在相当长一段时间内一直保持低利率，以确保不会扼杀经济复苏的翅膀。”“现在是加息以应对环境变化和通胀上升的时候了。”</blockquote> Turkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.<blockquote>土耳其央行3月份将主要利率大幅提高至19%，以应对两位数的通胀和里拉贬值。但土耳其里拉最近几周再次面临压力，投资者试图评估央行是否会听从总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的降息要求。</blockquote> Recent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.<blockquote>最近新鲜农产品的价格上涨提高了所谓的罗宋汤套餐——俄罗斯深受喜爱的汤所需的蔬菜——这是许多俄罗斯人的风向标。自年初以来，土豆、卷心菜和胡萝卜的价格上涨了60%至80%。</blockquote> In poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.<blockquote>在贫穷国家，更大份额的支出通常用于食品和能源等必需品，因此当这些价格上涨时，政策制定者会更快地抑制通胀。</blockquote> Central banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.<blockquote>斯堪的纳维亚和韩国央行已暗示计划收紧货币政策，以抑制可能出现的资产泡沫，尤其是房地产泡沫。挪威央行周四暗示将在9月加息。</blockquote> Central banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.<blockquote>包括匈牙利和捷克共和国在内的中欧央行预计也将很快加息。在大流行期间，它们没有遭受与法国和西班牙等欧洲大国相同规模的收缩，但通胀正在上升。</blockquote> Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司固定收益首席投资官Iain Stealey表示，美联储可能会设法避免“缩减恐慌”重演。</blockquote> “It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.<blockquote>“这是一个非常漫长、缓慢的过程……考虑到通胀的意外上行，很难不这样做，”斯蒂利先生说。</blockquote> Still, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.<blockquote>经济学家表示，尽管如此，耐心的方法还是存在问题。</blockquote> “This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.<blockquote>法国兴业银行首席全球经济学家克劳斯·巴德尔表示：“这种让通胀升温的想法……意味着只有当你已经存在通胀问题时，你才会意识到自己存在通胀问题。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRed-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nwsj2021-06-18 17:00\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nA booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.<blockquote>尽管Covid-19感染水平仍然很高且本国经济复苏不完全，但蓬勃发展的美国经济正在推高全球通胀并推高美元，这正迫使一些央行加息。</blockquote> The world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.<blockquote>世界各国央行都在关注美联储将如何应对通胀上升，担心陷入美国经济异常扩张的逆流中。全球股市周四下跌，此前美联储官员表示，随着美国经济升温，他们预计将在2023年底前加息，早于3月份的预期。</blockquote> A global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.<blockquote>以美联储为中心的全球加息可能会扼杀一些地方的经济复苏，尤其是在新兴市场债务上升之际。</blockquote> The size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.<blockquote>美国经济规模占世界国内生产总值的近四分之一，其金融市场的重要性长期以来对全球政策制定产生了巨大的影响。但美国今年异常强劲的增长对于仍在从去年的冲击中复苏的世界经济至关重要。根据周三发布的预测，美联储官员预计美国经济今年将增长7%。</blockquote> Central banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.<blockquote>俄罗斯、巴西和土耳其的央行最近几周提高了利率，部分原因是为了抑制今年大宗商品价格飙升引发的通胀。随着世界各地的工厂努力满足美国的需求，从锡到铜等大宗商品的价格飙升。</blockquote> “With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.<blockquote>伦敦牛津经济研究院经济学家塔玛拉·基础·瓦西里耶夫表示：“考虑到疫情带来的所有后果，这些国家现在最不需要的就是收紧政策。”</blockquote> A U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.<blockquote>美国经济繁荣通过增加美国进口和汇款来支持世界各地的经济。但它也推高了借贷成本和通胀，并使美元走强，从而收紧了全球金融状况，抑制了经济复苏。</blockquote> The pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.<blockquote>疼痛感觉不均匀。美元走强损害了以美元借款的新兴市场经济体，同时帮助了欧洲和东亚的大型出口商，这些出口商的产品相对于美国出口更具竞争力。</blockquote> In advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.<blockquote>在发达经济体，央行行长们大多认为，除非消费者预计通胀将持续并要求更高的工资，否则通胀上升将是暂时的。</blockquote> While central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.<blockquote>虽然央行认为这种情况不会很快发生，但一些经济学家认为他们可能会感到惊讶。</blockquote> “I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.<blockquote>法国巴黎银行首席全球经济学家路易吉·斯佩兰萨表示：“我认为这种暂时的价格冲击很可能会变得更加持久。”斯佩兰萨指出，当下一轮薪酬谈判于今年年底开始时，德国的通胀率可能在4%左右。</blockquote> Central banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.<blockquote>经济学家表示，欧洲和日本央行需要配合美联储的鸽派立场，以免本币飙升，从而破坏经济复苏。如果通胀比预期更持久，围绕美联储的微妙舞蹈可能会被打破，这可能会引发加息的连锁反应。</blockquote> “To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.<blockquote>贝莱德宏观研究主管埃尔加·巴奇(Elga Bartsch)表示：“为了防止欧元走强，[欧洲央行]需要像美联储一样采取鸽派立场，由于通胀和增长动态不同，这可能是一场斗争。”</blockquote> Emerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.<blockquote>然而，新兴市场经济体往往没有等待的奢侈。即使是短暂的通胀爆发也会对其货币造成沉重压力，并损害公司和家庭偿还通常以美元或欧元计价的债务的能力。</blockquote> The Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.<blockquote>美联储已表示，将注意避免重演2013年的“缩减恐慌”，当时发展中国家的央行被迫对外国投资的突然撤出做出反应，此前美联储表示正在考虑缩减刺激计划，令投资者感到惊讶。</blockquote> “So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示：“因此，我们对这一过程的意图是有序、有条不紊和透明。”“我可以告诉你，我们看到提前沟通我们的想法是有价值的。我们会尽量说清楚。”</blockquote> But with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.<blockquote>但随着全球通胀加速以及美联储开始改变方针，一些央行的考量正在发生变化。</blockquote> Brazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.<blockquote>巴西央行周三宣布连续第三次加息0.75个百分点，并暗示未来可能会更大幅度加息，因为它正在努力应对8%以上的通胀。</blockquote> The Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.<blockquote>俄罗斯央行今年已三次上调基准利率至5.5%，此前本月通胀率加速至6%以上，为近五年来的最高水平。周二，俄罗斯州长埃尔维拉·纳比乌林娜(Elvira Nabiullina)表示，俄罗斯将继续加息，预计这不会阻碍经济增长。</blockquote> “We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”<blockquote>纳比乌林娜在俄罗斯议会下院发表讲话时表示：“我们在相当长一段时间内一直保持低利率，以确保不会扼杀经济复苏的翅膀。”“现在是加息以应对环境变化和通胀上升的时候了。”</blockquote> Turkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.<blockquote>土耳其央行3月份将主要利率大幅提高至19%，以应对两位数的通胀和里拉贬值。但土耳其里拉最近几周再次面临压力，投资者试图评估央行是否会听从总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的降息要求。</blockquote> Recent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.<blockquote>最近新鲜农产品的价格上涨提高了所谓的罗宋汤套餐——俄罗斯深受喜爱的汤所需的蔬菜——这是许多俄罗斯人的风向标。自年初以来，土豆、卷心菜和胡萝卜的价格上涨了60%至80%。</blockquote> In poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.<blockquote>在贫穷国家，更大份额的支出通常用于食品和能源等必需品，因此当这些价格上涨时，政策制定者会更快地抑制通胀。</blockquote> Central banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.<blockquote>斯堪的纳维亚和韩国央行已暗示计划收紧货币政策，以抑制可能出现的资产泡沫，尤其是房地产泡沫。挪威央行周四暗示将在9月加息。</blockquote> Central banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.<blockquote>包括匈牙利和捷克共和国在内的中欧央行预计也将很快加息。在大流行期间，它们没有遭受与法国和西班牙等欧洲大国相同规模的收缩，但通胀正在上升。</blockquote> Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司固定收益首席投资官Iain Stealey表示，美联储可能会设法避免“缩减恐慌”重演。</blockquote> “It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.<blockquote>“这是一个非常漫长、缓慢的过程……考虑到通胀的意外上行，很难不这样做，”斯蒂利先生说。</blockquote> Still, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.<blockquote>经济学家表示，尽管如此，耐心的方法还是存在问题。</blockquote> “This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.<blockquote>法国兴业银行首席全球经济学家克劳斯·巴德尔表示：“这种让通胀升温的想法……意味着只有当你已经存在通胀问题时，你才会意识到自己存在通胀问题。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/red-hot-u-s-economy-drives-global-inflation-forcing-foreign-banks-to-act-11623933343?mod=hp_lead_pos6\">wsj</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/red-hot-u-s-economy-drives-global-inflation-forcing-foreign-banks-to-act-11623933343?mod=hp_lead_pos6","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138044913","content_text":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.\nThe world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.\nA global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.\nThe size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.\nCentral banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.\n“With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.\nA U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.\nThe pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.\nIn advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.\nWhile central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.\n“I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.\nCentral banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.\n“To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.\nEmerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.\nThe Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.\n“So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”\nBut with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.\nBrazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.\nThe Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.\n“We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”\nTurkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.\nRecent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.\nIn poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.\nCentral banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.\nCentral banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.\nIain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”\n“It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.\nStill, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.\n“This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":166507191,"gmtCreate":1624015731713,"gmtModify":1634024098662,"author":{"id":"3570517865216539","authorId":"3570517865216539","name":"Big__Boss","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c36c2fe68f671064d7d1fd9b7268165","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3570517865216539","idStr":"3570517865216539"},"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166507191","repostId":1138044913,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138044913","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624006819,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138044913?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 17:00","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138044913","media":"wsj","summary":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dolla","content":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.<blockquote>尽管Covid-19感染水平仍然很高且本国经济复苏不完全，但蓬勃发展的美国经济正在推高全球通胀并推高美元，这正迫使一些央行加息。</blockquote> The world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.<blockquote>世界各国央行都在关注美联储将如何应对通胀上升，担心陷入美国经济异常扩张的逆流中。全球股市周四下跌，此前美联储官员表示，随着美国经济升温，他们预计将在2023年底前加息，早于3月份的预期。</blockquote> A global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.<blockquote>以美联储为中心的全球加息可能会扼杀一些地方的经济复苏，尤其是在新兴市场债务上升之际。</blockquote> The size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.<blockquote>美国经济规模占世界国内生产总值的近四分之一，其金融市场的重要性长期以来对全球政策制定产生了巨大的影响。但美国今年异常强劲的增长对于仍在从去年的冲击中复苏的世界经济至关重要。根据周三发布的预测，美联储官员预计美国经济今年将增长7%。</blockquote> Central banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.<blockquote>俄罗斯、巴西和土耳其的央行最近几周提高了利率，部分原因是为了抑制今年大宗商品价格飙升引发的通胀。随着世界各地的工厂努力满足美国的需求，从锡到铜等大宗商品的价格飙升。</blockquote> “With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.<blockquote>伦敦牛津经济研究院经济学家塔玛拉·基础·瓦西里耶夫表示：“考虑到疫情带来的所有后果，这些国家现在最不需要的就是收紧政策。”</blockquote> A U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.<blockquote>美国经济繁荣通过增加美国进口和汇款来支持世界各地的经济。但它也推高了借贷成本和通胀，并使美元走强，从而收紧了全球金融状况，抑制了经济复苏。</blockquote> The pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.<blockquote>疼痛感觉不均匀。美元走强损害了以美元借款的新兴市场经济体，同时帮助了欧洲和东亚的大型出口商，这些出口商的产品相对于美国出口更具竞争力。</blockquote> In advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.<blockquote>在发达经济体，央行行长们大多认为，除非消费者预计通胀将持续并要求更高的工资，否则通胀上升将是暂时的。</blockquote> While central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.<blockquote>虽然央行认为这种情况不会很快发生，但一些经济学家认为他们可能会感到惊讶。</blockquote> “I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.<blockquote>法国巴黎银行首席全球经济学家路易吉·斯佩兰萨表示：“我认为这种暂时的价格冲击很可能会变得更加持久。”斯佩兰萨指出，当下一轮薪酬谈判于今年年底开始时，德国的通胀率可能在4%左右。</blockquote> Central banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.<blockquote>经济学家表示，欧洲和日本央行需要配合美联储的鸽派立场，以免本币飙升，从而破坏经济复苏。如果通胀比预期更持久，围绕美联储的微妙舞蹈可能会被打破，这可能会引发加息的连锁反应。</blockquote> “To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.<blockquote>贝莱德宏观研究主管埃尔加·巴奇(Elga Bartsch)表示：“为了防止欧元走强，[欧洲央行]需要像美联储一样采取鸽派立场，由于通胀和增长动态不同，这可能是一场斗争。”</blockquote> Emerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.<blockquote>然而，新兴市场经济体往往没有等待的奢侈。即使是短暂的通胀爆发也会对其货币造成沉重压力，并损害公司和家庭偿还通常以美元或欧元计价的债务的能力。</blockquote> The Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.<blockquote>美联储已表示，将注意避免重演2013年的“缩减恐慌”，当时发展中国家的央行被迫对外国投资的突然撤出做出反应，此前美联储表示正在考虑缩减刺激计划，令投资者感到惊讶。</blockquote> “So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示：“因此，我们对这一过程的意图是有序、有条不紊和透明。”“我可以告诉你，我们看到提前沟通我们的想法是有价值的。我们会尽量说清楚。”</blockquote> But with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.<blockquote>但随着全球通胀加速以及美联储开始改变方针，一些央行的考量正在发生变化。</blockquote> Brazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.<blockquote>巴西央行周三宣布连续第三次加息0.75个百分点，并暗示未来可能会更大幅度加息，因为它正在努力应对8%以上的通胀。</blockquote> The Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.<blockquote>俄罗斯央行今年已三次上调基准利率至5.5%，此前本月通胀率加速至6%以上，为近五年来的最高水平。周二，俄罗斯州长埃尔维拉·纳比乌林娜(Elvira Nabiullina)表示，俄罗斯将继续加息，预计这不会阻碍经济增长。</blockquote> “We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”<blockquote>纳比乌林娜在俄罗斯议会下院发表讲话时表示：“我们在相当长一段时间内一直保持低利率，以确保不会扼杀经济复苏的翅膀。”“现在是加息以应对环境变化和通胀上升的时候了。”</blockquote> Turkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.<blockquote>土耳其央行3月份将主要利率大幅提高至19%，以应对两位数的通胀和里拉贬值。但土耳其里拉最近几周再次面临压力，投资者试图评估央行是否会听从总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的降息要求。</blockquote> Recent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.<blockquote>最近新鲜农产品的价格上涨提高了所谓的罗宋汤套餐——俄罗斯深受喜爱的汤所需的蔬菜——这是许多俄罗斯人的风向标。自年初以来，土豆、卷心菜和胡萝卜的价格上涨了60%至80%。</blockquote> In poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.<blockquote>在贫穷国家，更大份额的支出通常用于食品和能源等必需品，因此当这些价格上涨时，政策制定者会更快地抑制通胀。</blockquote> Central banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.<blockquote>斯堪的纳维亚和韩国央行已暗示计划收紧货币政策，以抑制可能出现的资产泡沫，尤其是房地产泡沫。挪威央行周四暗示将在9月加息。</blockquote> Central banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.<blockquote>包括匈牙利和捷克共和国在内的中欧央行预计也将很快加息。在大流行期间，它们没有遭受与法国和西班牙等欧洲大国相同规模的收缩，但通胀正在上升。</blockquote> Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司固定收益首席投资官Iain Stealey表示，美联储可能会设法避免“缩减恐慌”重演。</blockquote> “It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.<blockquote>“这是一个非常漫长、缓慢的过程……考虑到通胀的意外上行，很难不这样做，”斯蒂利先生说。</blockquote> Still, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.<blockquote>经济学家表示，尽管如此，耐心的方法还是存在问题。</blockquote> “This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.<blockquote>法国兴业银行首席全球经济学家克劳斯·巴德尔表示：“这种让通胀升温的想法……意味着只有当你已经存在通胀问题时，你才会意识到自己存在通胀问题。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRed-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nwsj2021-06-18 17:00\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nA booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.<blockquote>尽管Covid-19感染水平仍然很高且本国经济复苏不完全，但蓬勃发展的美国经济正在推高全球通胀并推高美元，这正迫使一些央行加息。</blockquote> The world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.<blockquote>世界各国央行都在关注美联储将如何应对通胀上升，担心陷入美国经济异常扩张的逆流中。全球股市周四下跌，此前美联储官员表示，随着美国经济升温，他们预计将在2023年底前加息，早于3月份的预期。</blockquote> A global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.<blockquote>以美联储为中心的全球加息可能会扼杀一些地方的经济复苏，尤其是在新兴市场债务上升之际。</blockquote> The size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.<blockquote>美国经济规模占世界国内生产总值的近四分之一，其金融市场的重要性长期以来对全球政策制定产生了巨大的影响。但美国今年异常强劲的增长对于仍在从去年的冲击中复苏的世界经济至关重要。根据周三发布的预测，美联储官员预计美国经济今年将增长7%。</blockquote> Central banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.<blockquote>俄罗斯、巴西和土耳其的央行最近几周提高了利率，部分原因是为了抑制今年大宗商品价格飙升引发的通胀。随着世界各地的工厂努力满足美国的需求，从锡到铜等大宗商品的价格飙升。</blockquote> “With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.<blockquote>伦敦牛津经济研究院经济学家塔玛拉·基础·瓦西里耶夫表示：“考虑到疫情带来的所有后果，这些国家现在最不需要的就是收紧政策。”</blockquote> A U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.<blockquote>美国经济繁荣通过增加美国进口和汇款来支持世界各地的经济。但它也推高了借贷成本和通胀，并使美元走强，从而收紧了全球金融状况，抑制了经济复苏。</blockquote> The pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.<blockquote>疼痛感觉不均匀。美元走强损害了以美元借款的新兴市场经济体，同时帮助了欧洲和东亚的大型出口商，这些出口商的产品相对于美国出口更具竞争力。</blockquote> In advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.<blockquote>在发达经济体，央行行长们大多认为，除非消费者预计通胀将持续并要求更高的工资，否则通胀上升将是暂时的。</blockquote> While central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.<blockquote>虽然央行认为这种情况不会很快发生，但一些经济学家认为他们可能会感到惊讶。</blockquote> “I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.<blockquote>法国巴黎银行首席全球经济学家路易吉·斯佩兰萨表示：“我认为这种暂时的价格冲击很可能会变得更加持久。”斯佩兰萨指出，当下一轮薪酬谈判于今年年底开始时，德国的通胀率可能在4%左右。</blockquote> Central banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.<blockquote>经济学家表示，欧洲和日本央行需要配合美联储的鸽派立场，以免本币飙升，从而破坏经济复苏。如果通胀比预期更持久，围绕美联储的微妙舞蹈可能会被打破，这可能会引发加息的连锁反应。</blockquote> “To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.<blockquote>贝莱德宏观研究主管埃尔加·巴奇(Elga Bartsch)表示：“为了防止欧元走强，[欧洲央行]需要像美联储一样采取鸽派立场，由于通胀和增长动态不同，这可能是一场斗争。”</blockquote> Emerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.<blockquote>然而，新兴市场经济体往往没有等待的奢侈。即使是短暂的通胀爆发也会对其货币造成沉重压力，并损害公司和家庭偿还通常以美元或欧元计价的债务的能力。</blockquote> The Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.<blockquote>美联储已表示，将注意避免重演2013年的“缩减恐慌”，当时发展中国家的央行被迫对外国投资的突然撤出做出反应，此前美联储表示正在考虑缩减刺激计划，令投资者感到惊讶。</blockquote> “So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示：“因此，我们对这一过程的意图是有序、有条不紊和透明。”“我可以告诉你，我们看到提前沟通我们的想法是有价值的。我们会尽量说清楚。”</blockquote> But with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.<blockquote>但随着全球通胀加速以及美联储开始改变方针，一些央行的考量正在发生变化。</blockquote> Brazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.<blockquote>巴西央行周三宣布连续第三次加息0.75个百分点，并暗示未来可能会更大幅度加息，因为它正在努力应对8%以上的通胀。</blockquote> The Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.<blockquote>俄罗斯央行今年已三次上调基准利率至5.5%，此前本月通胀率加速至6%以上，为近五年来的最高水平。周二，俄罗斯州长埃尔维拉·纳比乌林娜(Elvira Nabiullina)表示，俄罗斯将继续加息，预计这不会阻碍经济增长。</blockquote> “We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”<blockquote>纳比乌林娜在俄罗斯议会下院发表讲话时表示：“我们在相当长一段时间内一直保持低利率，以确保不会扼杀经济复苏的翅膀。”“现在是加息以应对环境变化和通胀上升的时候了。”</blockquote> Turkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.<blockquote>土耳其央行3月份将主要利率大幅提高至19%，以应对两位数的通胀和里拉贬值。但土耳其里拉最近几周再次面临压力，投资者试图评估央行是否会听从总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的降息要求。</blockquote> Recent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.<blockquote>最近新鲜农产品的价格上涨提高了所谓的罗宋汤套餐——俄罗斯深受喜爱的汤所需的蔬菜——这是许多俄罗斯人的风向标。自年初以来，土豆、卷心菜和胡萝卜的价格上涨了60%至80%。</blockquote> In poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.<blockquote>在贫穷国家，更大份额的支出通常用于食品和能源等必需品，因此当这些价格上涨时，政策制定者会更快地抑制通胀。</blockquote> Central banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.<blockquote>斯堪的纳维亚和韩国央行已暗示计划收紧货币政策，以抑制可能出现的资产泡沫，尤其是房地产泡沫。挪威央行周四暗示将在9月加息。</blockquote> Central banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.<blockquote>包括匈牙利和捷克共和国在内的中欧央行预计也将很快加息。在大流行期间，它们没有遭受与法国和西班牙等欧洲大国相同规模的收缩，但通胀正在上升。</blockquote> Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司固定收益首席投资官Iain Stealey表示，美联储可能会设法避免“缩减恐慌”重演。</blockquote> “It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.<blockquote>“这是一个非常漫长、缓慢的过程……考虑到通胀的意外上行，很难不这样做，”斯蒂利先生说。</blockquote> Still, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.<blockquote>经济学家表示，尽管如此，耐心的方法还是存在问题。</blockquote> “This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.<blockquote>法国兴业银行首席全球经济学家克劳斯·巴德尔表示：“这种让通胀升温的想法……意味着只有当你已经存在通胀问题时，你才会意识到自己存在通胀问题。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/red-hot-u-s-economy-drives-global-inflation-forcing-foreign-banks-to-act-11623933343?mod=hp_lead_pos6\">wsj</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/red-hot-u-s-economy-drives-global-inflation-forcing-foreign-banks-to-act-11623933343?mod=hp_lead_pos6","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138044913","content_text":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.\nThe world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.\nA global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.\nThe size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.\nCentral banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.\n“With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.\nA U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.\nThe pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.\nIn advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.\nWhile central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.\n“I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.\nCentral banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.\n“To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.\nEmerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.\nThe Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.\n“So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”\nBut with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.\nBrazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.\nThe Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.\n“We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”\nTurkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.\nRecent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.\nIn poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.\nCentral banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.\nCentral banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.\nIain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”\n“It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.\nStill, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.\n“This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":166502575,"gmtCreate":1624015549597,"gmtModify":1634024100053,"author":{"id":"3570517865216539","authorId":"3570517865216539","name":"Big__Boss","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c36c2fe68f671064d7d1fd9b7268165","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3570517865216539","idStr":"3570517865216539"},"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":28,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166502575","repostId":1138044913,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138044913","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624006819,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138044913?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 17:00","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138044913","media":"wsj","summary":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dolla","content":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.<blockquote>尽管Covid-19感染水平仍然很高且本国经济复苏不完全，但蓬勃发展的美国经济正在推高全球通胀并推高美元，这正迫使一些央行加息。</blockquote> The world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.<blockquote>世界各国央行都在关注美联储将如何应对通胀上升，担心陷入美国经济异常扩张的逆流中。全球股市周四下跌，此前美联储官员表示，随着美国经济升温，他们预计将在2023年底前加息，早于3月份的预期。</blockquote> A global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.<blockquote>以美联储为中心的全球加息可能会扼杀一些地方的经济复苏，尤其是在新兴市场债务上升之际。</blockquote> The size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.<blockquote>美国经济规模占世界国内生产总值的近四分之一，其金融市场的重要性长期以来对全球政策制定产生了巨大的影响。但美国今年异常强劲的增长对于仍在从去年的冲击中复苏的世界经济至关重要。根据周三发布的预测，美联储官员预计美国经济今年将增长7%。</blockquote> Central banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.<blockquote>俄罗斯、巴西和土耳其的央行最近几周提高了利率，部分原因是为了抑制今年大宗商品价格飙升引发的通胀。随着世界各地的工厂努力满足美国的需求，从锡到铜等大宗商品的价格飙升。</blockquote> “With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.<blockquote>伦敦牛津经济研究院经济学家塔玛拉·基础·瓦西里耶夫表示：“考虑到疫情带来的所有后果，这些国家现在最不需要的就是收紧政策。”</blockquote> A U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.<blockquote>美国经济繁荣通过增加美国进口和汇款来支持世界各地的经济。但它也推高了借贷成本和通胀，并使美元走强，从而收紧了全球金融状况，抑制了经济复苏。</blockquote> The pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.<blockquote>疼痛感觉不均匀。美元走强损害了以美元借款的新兴市场经济体，同时帮助了欧洲和东亚的大型出口商，这些出口商的产品相对于美国出口更具竞争力。</blockquote> In advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.<blockquote>在发达经济体，央行行长们大多认为，除非消费者预计通胀将持续并要求更高的工资，否则通胀上升将是暂时的。</blockquote> While central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.<blockquote>虽然央行认为这种情况不会很快发生，但一些经济学家认为他们可能会感到惊讶。</blockquote> “I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.<blockquote>法国巴黎银行首席全球经济学家路易吉·斯佩兰萨表示：“我认为这种暂时的价格冲击很可能会变得更加持久。”斯佩兰萨指出，当下一轮薪酬谈判于今年年底开始时，德国的通胀率可能在4%左右。</blockquote> Central banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.<blockquote>经济学家表示，欧洲和日本央行需要配合美联储的鸽派立场，以免本币飙升，从而破坏经济复苏。如果通胀比预期更持久，围绕美联储的微妙舞蹈可能会被打破，这可能会引发加息的连锁反应。</blockquote> “To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.<blockquote>贝莱德宏观研究主管埃尔加·巴奇(Elga Bartsch)表示：“为了防止欧元走强，[欧洲央行]需要像美联储一样采取鸽派立场，由于通胀和增长动态不同，这可能是一场斗争。”</blockquote> Emerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.<blockquote>然而，新兴市场经济体往往没有等待的奢侈。即使是短暂的通胀爆发也会对其货币造成沉重压力，并损害公司和家庭偿还通常以美元或欧元计价的债务的能力。</blockquote> The Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.<blockquote>美联储已表示，将注意避免重演2013年的“缩减恐慌”，当时发展中国家的央行被迫对外国投资的突然撤出做出反应，此前美联储表示正在考虑缩减刺激计划，令投资者感到惊讶。</blockquote> “So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示：“因此，我们对这一过程的意图是有序、有条不紊和透明。”“我可以告诉你，我们看到提前沟通我们的想法是有价值的。我们会尽量说清楚。”</blockquote> But with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.<blockquote>但随着全球通胀加速以及美联储开始改变方针，一些央行的考量正在发生变化。</blockquote> Brazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.<blockquote>巴西央行周三宣布连续第三次加息0.75个百分点，并暗示未来可能会更大幅度加息，因为它正在努力应对8%以上的通胀。</blockquote> The Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.<blockquote>俄罗斯央行今年已三次上调基准利率至5.5%，此前本月通胀率加速至6%以上，为近五年来的最高水平。周二，俄罗斯州长埃尔维拉·纳比乌林娜(Elvira Nabiullina)表示，俄罗斯将继续加息，预计这不会阻碍经济增长。</blockquote> “We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”<blockquote>纳比乌林娜在俄罗斯议会下院发表讲话时表示：“我们在相当长一段时间内一直保持低利率，以确保不会扼杀经济复苏的翅膀。”“现在是加息以应对环境变化和通胀上升的时候了。”</blockquote> Turkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.<blockquote>土耳其央行3月份将主要利率大幅提高至19%，以应对两位数的通胀和里拉贬值。但土耳其里拉最近几周再次面临压力，投资者试图评估央行是否会听从总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的降息要求。</blockquote> Recent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.<blockquote>最近新鲜农产品的价格上涨提高了所谓的罗宋汤套餐——俄罗斯深受喜爱的汤所需的蔬菜——这是许多俄罗斯人的风向标。自年初以来，土豆、卷心菜和胡萝卜的价格上涨了60%至80%。</blockquote> In poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.<blockquote>在贫穷国家，更大份额的支出通常用于食品和能源等必需品，因此当这些价格上涨时，政策制定者会更快地抑制通胀。</blockquote> Central banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.<blockquote>斯堪的纳维亚和韩国央行已暗示计划收紧货币政策，以抑制可能出现的资产泡沫，尤其是房地产泡沫。挪威央行周四暗示将在9月加息。</blockquote> Central banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.<blockquote>包括匈牙利和捷克共和国在内的中欧央行预计也将很快加息。在大流行期间，它们没有遭受与法国和西班牙等欧洲大国相同规模的收缩，但通胀正在上升。</blockquote> Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司固定收益首席投资官Iain Stealey表示，美联储可能会设法避免“缩减恐慌”重演。</blockquote> “It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.<blockquote>“这是一个非常漫长、缓慢的过程……考虑到通胀的意外上行，很难不这样做，”斯蒂利先生说。</blockquote> Still, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.<blockquote>经济学家表示，尽管如此，耐心的方法还是存在问题。</blockquote> “This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.<blockquote>法国兴业银行首席全球经济学家克劳斯·巴德尔表示：“这种让通胀升温的想法……意味着只有当你已经存在通胀问题时，你才会意识到自己存在通胀问题。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRed-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nwsj2021-06-18 17:00\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nA booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.<blockquote>尽管Covid-19感染水平仍然很高且本国经济复苏不完全，但蓬勃发展的美国经济正在推高全球通胀并推高美元，这正迫使一些央行加息。</blockquote> The world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.<blockquote>世界各国央行都在关注美联储将如何应对通胀上升，担心陷入美国经济异常扩张的逆流中。全球股市周四下跌，此前美联储官员表示，随着美国经济升温，他们预计将在2023年底前加息，早于3月份的预期。</blockquote> A global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.<blockquote>以美联储为中心的全球加息可能会扼杀一些地方的经济复苏，尤其是在新兴市场债务上升之际。</blockquote> The size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.<blockquote>美国经济规模占世界国内生产总值的近四分之一，其金融市场的重要性长期以来对全球政策制定产生了巨大的影响。但美国今年异常强劲的增长对于仍在从去年的冲击中复苏的世界经济至关重要。根据周三发布的预测，美联储官员预计美国经济今年将增长7%。</blockquote> Central banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.<blockquote>俄罗斯、巴西和土耳其的央行最近几周提高了利率，部分原因是为了抑制今年大宗商品价格飙升引发的通胀。随着世界各地的工厂努力满足美国的需求，从锡到铜等大宗商品的价格飙升。</blockquote> “With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.<blockquote>伦敦牛津经济研究院经济学家塔玛拉·基础·瓦西里耶夫表示：“考虑到疫情带来的所有后果，这些国家现在最不需要的就是收紧政策。”</blockquote> A U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.<blockquote>美国经济繁荣通过增加美国进口和汇款来支持世界各地的经济。但它也推高了借贷成本和通胀，并使美元走强，从而收紧了全球金融状况，抑制了经济复苏。</blockquote> The pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.<blockquote>疼痛感觉不均匀。美元走强损害了以美元借款的新兴市场经济体，同时帮助了欧洲和东亚的大型出口商，这些出口商的产品相对于美国出口更具竞争力。</blockquote> In advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.<blockquote>在发达经济体，央行行长们大多认为，除非消费者预计通胀将持续并要求更高的工资，否则通胀上升将是暂时的。</blockquote> While central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.<blockquote>虽然央行认为这种情况不会很快发生，但一些经济学家认为他们可能会感到惊讶。</blockquote> “I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.<blockquote>法国巴黎银行首席全球经济学家路易吉·斯佩兰萨表示：“我认为这种暂时的价格冲击很可能会变得更加持久。”斯佩兰萨指出，当下一轮薪酬谈判于今年年底开始时，德国的通胀率可能在4%左右。</blockquote> Central banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.<blockquote>经济学家表示，欧洲和日本央行需要配合美联储的鸽派立场，以免本币飙升，从而破坏经济复苏。如果通胀比预期更持久，围绕美联储的微妙舞蹈可能会被打破，这可能会引发加息的连锁反应。</blockquote> “To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.<blockquote>贝莱德宏观研究主管埃尔加·巴奇(Elga Bartsch)表示：“为了防止欧元走强，[欧洲央行]需要像美联储一样采取鸽派立场，由于通胀和增长动态不同，这可能是一场斗争。”</blockquote> Emerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.<blockquote>然而，新兴市场经济体往往没有等待的奢侈。即使是短暂的通胀爆发也会对其货币造成沉重压力，并损害公司和家庭偿还通常以美元或欧元计价的债务的能力。</blockquote> The Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.<blockquote>美联储已表示，将注意避免重演2013年的“缩减恐慌”，当时发展中国家的央行被迫对外国投资的突然撤出做出反应，此前美联储表示正在考虑缩减刺激计划，令投资者感到惊讶。</blockquote> “So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示：“因此，我们对这一过程的意图是有序、有条不紊和透明。”“我可以告诉你，我们看到提前沟通我们的想法是有价值的。我们会尽量说清楚。”</blockquote> But with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.<blockquote>但随着全球通胀加速以及美联储开始改变方针，一些央行的考量正在发生变化。</blockquote> Brazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.<blockquote>巴西央行周三宣布连续第三次加息0.75个百分点，并暗示未来可能会更大幅度加息，因为它正在努力应对8%以上的通胀。</blockquote> The Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.<blockquote>俄罗斯央行今年已三次上调基准利率至5.5%，此前本月通胀率加速至6%以上，为近五年来的最高水平。周二，俄罗斯州长埃尔维拉·纳比乌林娜(Elvira Nabiullina)表示，俄罗斯将继续加息，预计这不会阻碍经济增长。</blockquote> “We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”<blockquote>纳比乌林娜在俄罗斯议会下院发表讲话时表示：“我们在相当长一段时间内一直保持低利率，以确保不会扼杀经济复苏的翅膀。”“现在是加息以应对环境变化和通胀上升的时候了。”</blockquote> Turkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.<blockquote>土耳其央行3月份将主要利率大幅提高至19%，以应对两位数的通胀和里拉贬值。但土耳其里拉最近几周再次面临压力，投资者试图评估央行是否会听从总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的降息要求。</blockquote> Recent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.<blockquote>最近新鲜农产品的价格上涨提高了所谓的罗宋汤套餐——俄罗斯深受喜爱的汤所需的蔬菜——这是许多俄罗斯人的风向标。自年初以来，土豆、卷心菜和胡萝卜的价格上涨了60%至80%。</blockquote> In poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.<blockquote>在贫穷国家，更大份额的支出通常用于食品和能源等必需品，因此当这些价格上涨时，政策制定者会更快地抑制通胀。</blockquote> Central banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.<blockquote>斯堪的纳维亚和韩国央行已暗示计划收紧货币政策，以抑制可能出现的资产泡沫，尤其是房地产泡沫。挪威央行周四暗示将在9月加息。</blockquote> Central banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.<blockquote>包括匈牙利和捷克共和国在内的中欧央行预计也将很快加息。在大流行期间，它们没有遭受与法国和西班牙等欧洲大国相同规模的收缩，但通胀正在上升。</blockquote> Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司固定收益首席投资官Iain Stealey表示，美联储可能会设法避免“缩减恐慌”重演。</blockquote> “It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.<blockquote>“这是一个非常漫长、缓慢的过程……考虑到通胀的意外上行，很难不这样做，”斯蒂利先生说。</blockquote> Still, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.<blockquote>经济学家表示，尽管如此，耐心的方法还是存在问题。</blockquote> “This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.<blockquote>法国兴业银行首席全球经济学家克劳斯·巴德尔表示：“这种让通胀升温的想法……意味着只有当你已经存在通胀问题时，你才会意识到自己存在通胀问题。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/red-hot-u-s-economy-drives-global-inflation-forcing-foreign-banks-to-act-11623933343?mod=hp_lead_pos6\">wsj</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/red-hot-u-s-economy-drives-global-inflation-forcing-foreign-banks-to-act-11623933343?mod=hp_lead_pos6","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138044913","content_text":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.\nThe world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.\nA global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.\nThe size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.\nCentral banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.\n“With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.\nA U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.\nThe pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.\nIn advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.\nWhile central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.\n“I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.\nCentral banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.\n“To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.\nEmerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.\nThe Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.\n“So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”\nBut with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.\nBrazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.\nThe Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.\n“We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”\nTurkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.\nRecent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.\nIn poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.\nCentral banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.\nCentral banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.\nIain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”\n“It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.\nStill, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.\n“This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4869150,"gmtCreate":1624015569316,"gmtModify":1635310874402,"authorId":3570517865216539,"author":{"id":3570517865216539,"idStr":"3570517865216539","authorId":3570517865216539,"name":"Big__Boss","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c36c2fe68f671064d7d1fd9b7268165","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":166502575,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"like and comment below","text":"like and comment below","html":"like and comment below"},{"id":4869152,"gmtCreate":1624015579042,"gmtModify":1635310874171,"authorId":3570517865216539,"author":{"id":3570517865216539,"idStr":"3570517865216539","authorId":3570517865216539,"name":"Big__Boss","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c36c2fe68f671064d7d1fd9b7268165","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":166502575,"type":1,"supId":4869150,"prevId":0,"content":"like and comment belwo","text":"like and comment belwo","html":"like and comment belwo"},{"id":4869159,"gmtCreate":1624015599666,"gmtModify":1635310873443,"authorId":3570517865216539,"author":{"id":3570517865216539,"idStr":"3570517865216539","authorId":3570517865216539,"name":"Big__Boss","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c36c2fe68f671064d7d1fd9b7268165","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":3570517865216539,"repliedAuthor":{"id":3570517865216539,"idStr":"3570517865216539","authorId":3570517865216539,"name":"Big__Boss","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c36c2fe68f671064d7d1fd9b7268165","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"objectId":166502575,"type":1,"supId":4869150,"prevId":4869152,"content":"i will comment back","text":"i will comment back","html":"i will comment back"},{"id":4869165,"gmtCreate":1624015616879,"gmtModify":1635310872778,"authorId":3570517865216539,"author":{"id":3570517865216539,"idStr":"3570517865216539","authorId":3570517865216539,"name":"Big__Boss","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c36c2fe68f671064d7d1fd9b7268165","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":166502575,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"try if you not believe","text":"try if you not believe","html":"try if you not believe"},{"id":4869170,"gmtCreate":1624015630177,"gmtModify":1635310872445,"authorId":3570517865216539,"author":{"id":3570517865216539,"idStr":"3570517865216539","authorId":3570517865216539,"name":"Big__Boss","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c36c2fe68f671064d7d1fd9b7268165","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":166502575,"type":1,"supId":4869165,"prevId":0,"content":"loollol","text":"loollol","html":"loollol"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":166259236,"gmtCreate":1624013791725,"gmtModify":1634024130057,"author":{"id":"3565266382047895","authorId":"3565266382047895","name":"PerDerDer","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9623a23c5fff390e6ce879caff27c3c2","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3565266382047895","idStr":"3565266382047895"},"htmlText":"Like and comment please&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment please&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166259236","repostId":1138044913,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138044913","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624006819,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138044913?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 17:00","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138044913","media":"wsj","summary":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dolla","content":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.<blockquote>尽管Covid-19感染水平仍然很高且本国经济复苏不完全，但蓬勃发展的美国经济正在推高全球通胀并推高美元，这正迫使一些央行加息。</blockquote> The world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.<blockquote>世界各国央行都在关注美联储将如何应对通胀上升，担心陷入美国经济异常扩张的逆流中。全球股市周四下跌，此前美联储官员表示，随着美国经济升温，他们预计将在2023年底前加息，早于3月份的预期。</blockquote> A global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.<blockquote>以美联储为中心的全球加息可能会扼杀一些地方的经济复苏，尤其是在新兴市场债务上升之际。</blockquote> The size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.<blockquote>美国经济规模占世界国内生产总值的近四分之一，其金融市场的重要性长期以来对全球政策制定产生了巨大的影响。但美国今年异常强劲的增长对于仍在从去年的冲击中复苏的世界经济至关重要。根据周三发布的预测，美联储官员预计美国经济今年将增长7%。</blockquote> Central banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.<blockquote>俄罗斯、巴西和土耳其的央行最近几周提高了利率，部分原因是为了抑制今年大宗商品价格飙升引发的通胀。随着世界各地的工厂努力满足美国的需求，从锡到铜等大宗商品的价格飙升。</blockquote> “With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.<blockquote>伦敦牛津经济研究院经济学家塔玛拉·基础·瓦西里耶夫表示：“考虑到疫情带来的所有后果，这些国家现在最不需要的就是收紧政策。”</blockquote> A U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.<blockquote>美国经济繁荣通过增加美国进口和汇款来支持世界各地的经济。但它也推高了借贷成本和通胀，并使美元走强，从而收紧了全球金融状况，抑制了经济复苏。</blockquote> The pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.<blockquote>疼痛感觉不均匀。美元走强损害了以美元借款的新兴市场经济体，同时帮助了欧洲和东亚的大型出口商，这些出口商的产品相对于美国出口更具竞争力。</blockquote> In advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.<blockquote>在发达经济体，央行行长们大多认为，除非消费者预计通胀将持续并要求更高的工资，否则通胀上升将是暂时的。</blockquote> While central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.<blockquote>虽然央行认为这种情况不会很快发生，但一些经济学家认为他们可能会感到惊讶。</blockquote> “I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.<blockquote>法国巴黎银行首席全球经济学家路易吉·斯佩兰萨表示：“我认为这种暂时的价格冲击很可能会变得更加持久。”斯佩兰萨指出，当下一轮薪酬谈判于今年年底开始时，德国的通胀率可能在4%左右。</blockquote> Central banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.<blockquote>经济学家表示，欧洲和日本央行需要配合美联储的鸽派立场，以免本币飙升，从而破坏经济复苏。如果通胀比预期更持久，围绕美联储的微妙舞蹈可能会被打破，这可能会引发加息的连锁反应。</blockquote> “To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.<blockquote>贝莱德宏观研究主管埃尔加·巴奇(Elga Bartsch)表示：“为了防止欧元走强，[欧洲央行]需要像美联储一样采取鸽派立场，由于通胀和增长动态不同，这可能是一场斗争。”</blockquote> Emerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.<blockquote>然而，新兴市场经济体往往没有等待的奢侈。即使是短暂的通胀爆发也会对其货币造成沉重压力，并损害公司和家庭偿还通常以美元或欧元计价的债务的能力。</blockquote> The Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.<blockquote>美联储已表示，将注意避免重演2013年的“缩减恐慌”，当时发展中国家的央行被迫对外国投资的突然撤出做出反应，此前美联储表示正在考虑缩减刺激计划，令投资者感到惊讶。</blockquote> “So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示：“因此，我们对这一过程的意图是有序、有条不紊和透明。”“我可以告诉你，我们看到提前沟通我们的想法是有价值的。我们会尽量说清楚。”</blockquote> But with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.<blockquote>但随着全球通胀加速以及美联储开始改变方针，一些央行的考量正在发生变化。</blockquote> Brazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.<blockquote>巴西央行周三宣布连续第三次加息0.75个百分点，并暗示未来可能会更大幅度加息，因为它正在努力应对8%以上的通胀。</blockquote> The Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.<blockquote>俄罗斯央行今年已三次上调基准利率至5.5%，此前本月通胀率加速至6%以上，为近五年来的最高水平。周二，俄罗斯州长埃尔维拉·纳比乌林娜(Elvira Nabiullina)表示，俄罗斯将继续加息，预计这不会阻碍经济增长。</blockquote> “We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”<blockquote>纳比乌林娜在俄罗斯议会下院发表讲话时表示：“我们在相当长一段时间内一直保持低利率，以确保不会扼杀经济复苏的翅膀。”“现在是加息以应对环境变化和通胀上升的时候了。”</blockquote> Turkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.<blockquote>土耳其央行3月份将主要利率大幅提高至19%，以应对两位数的通胀和里拉贬值。但土耳其里拉最近几周再次面临压力，投资者试图评估央行是否会听从总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的降息要求。</blockquote> Recent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.<blockquote>最近新鲜农产品的价格上涨提高了所谓的罗宋汤套餐——俄罗斯深受喜爱的汤所需的蔬菜——这是许多俄罗斯人的风向标。自年初以来，土豆、卷心菜和胡萝卜的价格上涨了60%至80%。</blockquote> In poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.<blockquote>在贫穷国家，更大份额的支出通常用于食品和能源等必需品，因此当这些价格上涨时，政策制定者会更快地抑制通胀。</blockquote> Central banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.<blockquote>斯堪的纳维亚和韩国央行已暗示计划收紧货币政策，以抑制可能出现的资产泡沫，尤其是房地产泡沫。挪威央行周四暗示将在9月加息。</blockquote> Central banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.<blockquote>包括匈牙利和捷克共和国在内的中欧央行预计也将很快加息。在大流行期间，它们没有遭受与法国和西班牙等欧洲大国相同规模的收缩，但通胀正在上升。</blockquote> Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司固定收益首席投资官Iain Stealey表示，美联储可能会设法避免“缩减恐慌”重演。</blockquote> “It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.<blockquote>“这是一个非常漫长、缓慢的过程……考虑到通胀的意外上行，很难不这样做，”斯蒂利先生说。</blockquote> Still, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.<blockquote>经济学家表示，尽管如此，耐心的方法还是存在问题。</blockquote> “This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.<blockquote>法国兴业银行首席全球经济学家克劳斯·巴德尔表示：“这种让通胀升温的想法……意味着只有当你已经存在通胀问题时，你才会意识到自己存在通胀问题。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRed-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nwsj2021-06-18 17:00\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nA booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.<blockquote>尽管Covid-19感染水平仍然很高且本国经济复苏不完全，但蓬勃发展的美国经济正在推高全球通胀并推高美元，这正迫使一些央行加息。</blockquote> The world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.<blockquote>世界各国央行都在关注美联储将如何应对通胀上升，担心陷入美国经济异常扩张的逆流中。全球股市周四下跌，此前美联储官员表示，随着美国经济升温，他们预计将在2023年底前加息，早于3月份的预期。</blockquote> A global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.<blockquote>以美联储为中心的全球加息可能会扼杀一些地方的经济复苏，尤其是在新兴市场债务上升之际。</blockquote> The size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.<blockquote>美国经济规模占世界国内生产总值的近四分之一，其金融市场的重要性长期以来对全球政策制定产生了巨大的影响。但美国今年异常强劲的增长对于仍在从去年的冲击中复苏的世界经济至关重要。根据周三发布的预测，美联储官员预计美国经济今年将增长7%。</blockquote> Central banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.<blockquote>俄罗斯、巴西和土耳其的央行最近几周提高了利率，部分原因是为了抑制今年大宗商品价格飙升引发的通胀。随着世界各地的工厂努力满足美国的需求，从锡到铜等大宗商品的价格飙升。</blockquote> “With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.<blockquote>伦敦牛津经济研究院经济学家塔玛拉·基础·瓦西里耶夫表示：“考虑到疫情带来的所有后果，这些国家现在最不需要的就是收紧政策。”</blockquote> A U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.<blockquote>美国经济繁荣通过增加美国进口和汇款来支持世界各地的经济。但它也推高了借贷成本和通胀，并使美元走强，从而收紧了全球金融状况，抑制了经济复苏。</blockquote> The pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.<blockquote>疼痛感觉不均匀。美元走强损害了以美元借款的新兴市场经济体，同时帮助了欧洲和东亚的大型出口商，这些出口商的产品相对于美国出口更具竞争力。</blockquote> In advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.<blockquote>在发达经济体，央行行长们大多认为，除非消费者预计通胀将持续并要求更高的工资，否则通胀上升将是暂时的。</blockquote> While central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.<blockquote>虽然央行认为这种情况不会很快发生，但一些经济学家认为他们可能会感到惊讶。</blockquote> “I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.<blockquote>法国巴黎银行首席全球经济学家路易吉·斯佩兰萨表示：“我认为这种暂时的价格冲击很可能会变得更加持久。”斯佩兰萨指出，当下一轮薪酬谈判于今年年底开始时，德国的通胀率可能在4%左右。</blockquote> Central banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.<blockquote>经济学家表示，欧洲和日本央行需要配合美联储的鸽派立场，以免本币飙升，从而破坏经济复苏。如果通胀比预期更持久，围绕美联储的微妙舞蹈可能会被打破，这可能会引发加息的连锁反应。</blockquote> “To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.<blockquote>贝莱德宏观研究主管埃尔加·巴奇(Elga Bartsch)表示：“为了防止欧元走强，[欧洲央行]需要像美联储一样采取鸽派立场，由于通胀和增长动态不同，这可能是一场斗争。”</blockquote> Emerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.<blockquote>然而，新兴市场经济体往往没有等待的奢侈。即使是短暂的通胀爆发也会对其货币造成沉重压力，并损害公司和家庭偿还通常以美元或欧元计价的债务的能力。</blockquote> The Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.<blockquote>美联储已表示，将注意避免重演2013年的“缩减恐慌”，当时发展中国家的央行被迫对外国投资的突然撤出做出反应，此前美联储表示正在考虑缩减刺激计划，令投资者感到惊讶。</blockquote> “So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示：“因此，我们对这一过程的意图是有序、有条不紊和透明。”“我可以告诉你，我们看到提前沟通我们的想法是有价值的。我们会尽量说清楚。”</blockquote> But with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.<blockquote>但随着全球通胀加速以及美联储开始改变方针，一些央行的考量正在发生变化。</blockquote> Brazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.<blockquote>巴西央行周三宣布连续第三次加息0.75个百分点，并暗示未来可能会更大幅度加息，因为它正在努力应对8%以上的通胀。</blockquote> The Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.<blockquote>俄罗斯央行今年已三次上调基准利率至5.5%，此前本月通胀率加速至6%以上，为近五年来的最高水平。周二，俄罗斯州长埃尔维拉·纳比乌林娜(Elvira Nabiullina)表示，俄罗斯将继续加息，预计这不会阻碍经济增长。</blockquote> “We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”<blockquote>纳比乌林娜在俄罗斯议会下院发表讲话时表示：“我们在相当长一段时间内一直保持低利率，以确保不会扼杀经济复苏的翅膀。”“现在是加息以应对环境变化和通胀上升的时候了。”</blockquote> Turkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.<blockquote>土耳其央行3月份将主要利率大幅提高至19%，以应对两位数的通胀和里拉贬值。但土耳其里拉最近几周再次面临压力，投资者试图评估央行是否会听从总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的降息要求。</blockquote> Recent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.<blockquote>最近新鲜农产品的价格上涨提高了所谓的罗宋汤套餐——俄罗斯深受喜爱的汤所需的蔬菜——这是许多俄罗斯人的风向标。自年初以来，土豆、卷心菜和胡萝卜的价格上涨了60%至80%。</blockquote> In poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.<blockquote>在贫穷国家，更大份额的支出通常用于食品和能源等必需品，因此当这些价格上涨时，政策制定者会更快地抑制通胀。</blockquote> Central banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.<blockquote>斯堪的纳维亚和韩国央行已暗示计划收紧货币政策，以抑制可能出现的资产泡沫，尤其是房地产泡沫。挪威央行周四暗示将在9月加息。</blockquote> Central banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.<blockquote>包括匈牙利和捷克共和国在内的中欧央行预计也将很快加息。在大流行期间，它们没有遭受与法国和西班牙等欧洲大国相同规模的收缩，但通胀正在上升。</blockquote> Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司固定收益首席投资官Iain Stealey表示，美联储可能会设法避免“缩减恐慌”重演。</blockquote> “It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.<blockquote>“这是一个非常漫长、缓慢的过程……考虑到通胀的意外上行，很难不这样做，”斯蒂利先生说。</blockquote> Still, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.<blockquote>经济学家表示，尽管如此，耐心的方法还是存在问题。</blockquote> “This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.<blockquote>法国兴业银行首席全球经济学家克劳斯·巴德尔表示：“这种让通胀升温的想法……意味着只有当你已经存在通胀问题时，你才会意识到自己存在通胀问题。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/red-hot-u-s-economy-drives-global-inflation-forcing-foreign-banks-to-act-11623933343?mod=hp_lead_pos6\">wsj</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/red-hot-u-s-economy-drives-global-inflation-forcing-foreign-banks-to-act-11623933343?mod=hp_lead_pos6","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138044913","content_text":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.\nThe world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.\nA global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.\nThe size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.\nCentral banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.\n“With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.\nA U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.\nThe pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.\nIn advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.\nWhile central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.\n“I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.\nCentral banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.\n“To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.\nEmerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.\nThe Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.\n“So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”\nBut with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.\nBrazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.\nThe Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.\n“We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”\nTurkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.\nRecent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.\nIn poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.\nCentral banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.\nCentral banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.\nIain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”\n“It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.\nStill, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.\n“This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":166284439,"gmtCreate":1624012361621,"gmtModify":1634024146406,"author":{"id":"3576029059404897","authorId":"3576029059404897","name":"wc77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ece187c7197f1ec611a9df7730f776e","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3576029059404897","idStr":"3576029059404897"},"htmlText":"like and comment please&nbsp;","listText":"like and comment please&nbsp;","text":"like and comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166284439","repostId":1138044913,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138044913","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624006819,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138044913?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 17:00","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138044913","media":"wsj","summary":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dolla","content":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.<blockquote>尽管Covid-19感染水平仍然很高且本国经济复苏不完全，但蓬勃发展的美国经济正在推高全球通胀并推高美元，这正迫使一些央行加息。</blockquote> The world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.<blockquote>世界各国央行都在关注美联储将如何应对通胀上升，担心陷入美国经济异常扩张的逆流中。全球股市周四下跌，此前美联储官员表示，随着美国经济升温，他们预计将在2023年底前加息，早于3月份的预期。</blockquote> A global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.<blockquote>以美联储为中心的全球加息可能会扼杀一些地方的经济复苏，尤其是在新兴市场债务上升之际。</blockquote> The size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.<blockquote>美国经济规模占世界国内生产总值的近四分之一，其金融市场的重要性长期以来对全球政策制定产生了巨大的影响。但美国今年异常强劲的增长对于仍在从去年的冲击中复苏的世界经济至关重要。根据周三发布的预测，美联储官员预计美国经济今年将增长7%。</blockquote> Central banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.<blockquote>俄罗斯、巴西和土耳其的央行最近几周提高了利率，部分原因是为了抑制今年大宗商品价格飙升引发的通胀。随着世界各地的工厂努力满足美国的需求，从锡到铜等大宗商品的价格飙升。</blockquote> “With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.<blockquote>伦敦牛津经济研究院经济学家塔玛拉·基础·瓦西里耶夫表示：“考虑到疫情带来的所有后果，这些国家现在最不需要的就是收紧政策。”</blockquote> A U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.<blockquote>美国经济繁荣通过增加美国进口和汇款来支持世界各地的经济。但它也推高了借贷成本和通胀，并使美元走强，从而收紧了全球金融状况，抑制了经济复苏。</blockquote> The pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.<blockquote>疼痛感觉不均匀。美元走强损害了以美元借款的新兴市场经济体，同时帮助了欧洲和东亚的大型出口商，这些出口商的产品相对于美国出口更具竞争力。</blockquote> In advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.<blockquote>在发达经济体，央行行长们大多认为，除非消费者预计通胀将持续并要求更高的工资，否则通胀上升将是暂时的。</blockquote> While central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.<blockquote>虽然央行认为这种情况不会很快发生，但一些经济学家认为他们可能会感到惊讶。</blockquote> “I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.<blockquote>法国巴黎银行首席全球经济学家路易吉·斯佩兰萨表示：“我认为这种暂时的价格冲击很可能会变得更加持久。”斯佩兰萨指出，当下一轮薪酬谈判于今年年底开始时，德国的通胀率可能在4%左右。</blockquote> Central banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.<blockquote>经济学家表示，欧洲和日本央行需要配合美联储的鸽派立场，以免本币飙升，从而破坏经济复苏。如果通胀比预期更持久，围绕美联储的微妙舞蹈可能会被打破，这可能会引发加息的连锁反应。</blockquote> “To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.<blockquote>贝莱德宏观研究主管埃尔加·巴奇(Elga Bartsch)表示：“为了防止欧元走强，[欧洲央行]需要像美联储一样采取鸽派立场，由于通胀和增长动态不同，这可能是一场斗争。”</blockquote> Emerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.<blockquote>然而，新兴市场经济体往往没有等待的奢侈。即使是短暂的通胀爆发也会对其货币造成沉重压力，并损害公司和家庭偿还通常以美元或欧元计价的债务的能力。</blockquote> The Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.<blockquote>美联储已表示，将注意避免重演2013年的“缩减恐慌”，当时发展中国家的央行被迫对外国投资的突然撤出做出反应，此前美联储表示正在考虑缩减刺激计划，令投资者感到惊讶。</blockquote> “So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示：“因此，我们对这一过程的意图是有序、有条不紊和透明。”“我可以告诉你，我们看到提前沟通我们的想法是有价值的。我们会尽量说清楚。”</blockquote> But with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.<blockquote>但随着全球通胀加速以及美联储开始改变方针，一些央行的考量正在发生变化。</blockquote> Brazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.<blockquote>巴西央行周三宣布连续第三次加息0.75个百分点，并暗示未来可能会更大幅度加息，因为它正在努力应对8%以上的通胀。</blockquote> The Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.<blockquote>俄罗斯央行今年已三次上调基准利率至5.5%，此前本月通胀率加速至6%以上，为近五年来的最高水平。周二，俄罗斯州长埃尔维拉·纳比乌林娜(Elvira Nabiullina)表示，俄罗斯将继续加息，预计这不会阻碍经济增长。</blockquote> “We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”<blockquote>纳比乌林娜在俄罗斯议会下院发表讲话时表示：“我们在相当长一段时间内一直保持低利率，以确保不会扼杀经济复苏的翅膀。”“现在是加息以应对环境变化和通胀上升的时候了。”</blockquote> Turkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.<blockquote>土耳其央行3月份将主要利率大幅提高至19%，以应对两位数的通胀和里拉贬值。但土耳其里拉最近几周再次面临压力，投资者试图评估央行是否会听从总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的降息要求。</blockquote> Recent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.<blockquote>最近新鲜农产品的价格上涨提高了所谓的罗宋汤套餐——俄罗斯深受喜爱的汤所需的蔬菜——这是许多俄罗斯人的风向标。自年初以来，土豆、卷心菜和胡萝卜的价格上涨了60%至80%。</blockquote> In poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.<blockquote>在贫穷国家，更大份额的支出通常用于食品和能源等必需品，因此当这些价格上涨时，政策制定者会更快地抑制通胀。</blockquote> Central banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.<blockquote>斯堪的纳维亚和韩国央行已暗示计划收紧货币政策，以抑制可能出现的资产泡沫，尤其是房地产泡沫。挪威央行周四暗示将在9月加息。</blockquote> Central banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.<blockquote>包括匈牙利和捷克共和国在内的中欧央行预计也将很快加息。在大流行期间，它们没有遭受与法国和西班牙等欧洲大国相同规模的收缩，但通胀正在上升。</blockquote> Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司固定收益首席投资官Iain Stealey表示，美联储可能会设法避免“缩减恐慌”重演。</blockquote> “It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.<blockquote>“这是一个非常漫长、缓慢的过程……考虑到通胀的意外上行，很难不这样做，”斯蒂利先生说。</blockquote> Still, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.<blockquote>经济学家表示，尽管如此，耐心的方法还是存在问题。</blockquote> “This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.<blockquote>法国兴业银行首席全球经济学家克劳斯·巴德尔表示：“这种让通胀升温的想法……意味着只有当你已经存在通胀问题时，你才会意识到自己存在通胀问题。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRed-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nwsj2021-06-18 17:00\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nA booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.<blockquote>尽管Covid-19感染水平仍然很高且本国经济复苏不完全，但蓬勃发展的美国经济正在推高全球通胀并推高美元，这正迫使一些央行加息。</blockquote> The world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.<blockquote>世界各国央行都在关注美联储将如何应对通胀上升，担心陷入美国经济异常扩张的逆流中。全球股市周四下跌，此前美联储官员表示，随着美国经济升温，他们预计将在2023年底前加息，早于3月份的预期。</blockquote> A global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.<blockquote>以美联储为中心的全球加息可能会扼杀一些地方的经济复苏，尤其是在新兴市场债务上升之际。</blockquote> The size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.<blockquote>美国经济规模占世界国内生产总值的近四分之一，其金融市场的重要性长期以来对全球政策制定产生了巨大的影响。但美国今年异常强劲的增长对于仍在从去年的冲击中复苏的世界经济至关重要。根据周三发布的预测，美联储官员预计美国经济今年将增长7%。</blockquote> Central banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.<blockquote>俄罗斯、巴西和土耳其的央行最近几周提高了利率，部分原因是为了抑制今年大宗商品价格飙升引发的通胀。随着世界各地的工厂努力满足美国的需求，从锡到铜等大宗商品的价格飙升。</blockquote> “With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.<blockquote>伦敦牛津经济研究院经济学家塔玛拉·基础·瓦西里耶夫表示：“考虑到疫情带来的所有后果，这些国家现在最不需要的就是收紧政策。”</blockquote> A U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.<blockquote>美国经济繁荣通过增加美国进口和汇款来支持世界各地的经济。但它也推高了借贷成本和通胀，并使美元走强，从而收紧了全球金融状况，抑制了经济复苏。</blockquote> The pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.<blockquote>疼痛感觉不均匀。美元走强损害了以美元借款的新兴市场经济体，同时帮助了欧洲和东亚的大型出口商，这些出口商的产品相对于美国出口更具竞争力。</blockquote> In advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.<blockquote>在发达经济体，央行行长们大多认为，除非消费者预计通胀将持续并要求更高的工资，否则通胀上升将是暂时的。</blockquote> While central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.<blockquote>虽然央行认为这种情况不会很快发生，但一些经济学家认为他们可能会感到惊讶。</blockquote> “I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.<blockquote>法国巴黎银行首席全球经济学家路易吉·斯佩兰萨表示：“我认为这种暂时的价格冲击很可能会变得更加持久。”斯佩兰萨指出，当下一轮薪酬谈判于今年年底开始时，德国的通胀率可能在4%左右。</blockquote> Central banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.<blockquote>经济学家表示，欧洲和日本央行需要配合美联储的鸽派立场，以免本币飙升，从而破坏经济复苏。如果通胀比预期更持久，围绕美联储的微妙舞蹈可能会被打破，这可能会引发加息的连锁反应。</blockquote> “To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.<blockquote>贝莱德宏观研究主管埃尔加·巴奇(Elga Bartsch)表示：“为了防止欧元走强，[欧洲央行]需要像美联储一样采取鸽派立场，由于通胀和增长动态不同，这可能是一场斗争。”</blockquote> Emerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.<blockquote>然而，新兴市场经济体往往没有等待的奢侈。即使是短暂的通胀爆发也会对其货币造成沉重压力，并损害公司和家庭偿还通常以美元或欧元计价的债务的能力。</blockquote> The Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.<blockquote>美联储已表示，将注意避免重演2013年的“缩减恐慌”，当时发展中国家的央行被迫对外国投资的突然撤出做出反应，此前美联储表示正在考虑缩减刺激计划，令投资者感到惊讶。</blockquote> “So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示：“因此，我们对这一过程的意图是有序、有条不紊和透明。”“我可以告诉你，我们看到提前沟通我们的想法是有价值的。我们会尽量说清楚。”</blockquote> But with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.<blockquote>但随着全球通胀加速以及美联储开始改变方针，一些央行的考量正在发生变化。</blockquote> Brazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.<blockquote>巴西央行周三宣布连续第三次加息0.75个百分点，并暗示未来可能会更大幅度加息，因为它正在努力应对8%以上的通胀。</blockquote> The Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.<blockquote>俄罗斯央行今年已三次上调基准利率至5.5%，此前本月通胀率加速至6%以上，为近五年来的最高水平。周二，俄罗斯州长埃尔维拉·纳比乌林娜(Elvira Nabiullina)表示，俄罗斯将继续加息，预计这不会阻碍经济增长。</blockquote> “We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”<blockquote>纳比乌林娜在俄罗斯议会下院发表讲话时表示：“我们在相当长一段时间内一直保持低利率，以确保不会扼杀经济复苏的翅膀。”“现在是加息以应对环境变化和通胀上升的时候了。”</blockquote> Turkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.<blockquote>土耳其央行3月份将主要利率大幅提高至19%，以应对两位数的通胀和里拉贬值。但土耳其里拉最近几周再次面临压力，投资者试图评估央行是否会听从总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的降息要求。</blockquote> Recent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.<blockquote>最近新鲜农产品的价格上涨提高了所谓的罗宋汤套餐——俄罗斯深受喜爱的汤所需的蔬菜——这是许多俄罗斯人的风向标。自年初以来，土豆、卷心菜和胡萝卜的价格上涨了60%至80%。</blockquote> In poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.<blockquote>在贫穷国家，更大份额的支出通常用于食品和能源等必需品，因此当这些价格上涨时，政策制定者会更快地抑制通胀。</blockquote> Central banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.<blockquote>斯堪的纳维亚和韩国央行已暗示计划收紧货币政策，以抑制可能出现的资产泡沫，尤其是房地产泡沫。挪威央行周四暗示将在9月加息。</blockquote> Central banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.<blockquote>包括匈牙利和捷克共和国在内的中欧央行预计也将很快加息。在大流行期间，它们没有遭受与法国和西班牙等欧洲大国相同规模的收缩，但通胀正在上升。</blockquote> Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司固定收益首席投资官Iain Stealey表示，美联储可能会设法避免“缩减恐慌”重演。</blockquote> “It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.<blockquote>“这是一个非常漫长、缓慢的过程……考虑到通胀的意外上行，很难不这样做，”斯蒂利先生说。</blockquote> Still, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.<blockquote>经济学家表示，尽管如此，耐心的方法还是存在问题。</blockquote> “This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.<blockquote>法国兴业银行首席全球经济学家克劳斯·巴德尔表示：“这种让通胀升温的想法……意味着只有当你已经存在通胀问题时，你才会意识到自己存在通胀问题。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/red-hot-u-s-economy-drives-global-inflation-forcing-foreign-banks-to-act-11623933343?mod=hp_lead_pos6\">wsj</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/red-hot-u-s-economy-drives-global-inflation-forcing-foreign-banks-to-act-11623933343?mod=hp_lead_pos6","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138044913","content_text":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.\nThe world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.\nA global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.\nThe size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.\nCentral banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.\n“With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.\nA U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.\nThe pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.\nIn advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.\nWhile central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.\n“I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.\nCentral banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.\n“To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.\nEmerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.\nThe Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.\n“So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”\nBut with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.\nBrazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.\nThe Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.\n“We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”\nTurkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.\nRecent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.\nIn poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.\nCentral banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.\nCentral banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.\nIain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”\n“It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.\nStill, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.\n“This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4869145,"gmtCreate":1624015542387,"gmtModify":1635310874853,"authorId":3570517865216539,"author":{"id":3570517865216539,"idStr":"3570517865216539","authorId":3570517865216539,"name":"Big__Boss","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c36c2fe68f671064d7d1fd9b7268165","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":166284439,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"like and comment pls","text":"like and comment pls","html":"like and comment pls"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":166297038,"gmtCreate":1624010331224,"gmtModify":1634024169714,"author":{"id":"3583236619050551","authorId":"3583236619050551","name":"SilverAmour","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/256e43ac204526854425faac738b3a5c","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3583236619050551","idStr":"3583236619050551"},"htmlText":"Steady","listText":"Steady","text":"Steady","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166297038","repostId":1138044913,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138044913","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624006819,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138044913?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 17:00","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138044913","media":"wsj","summary":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dolla","content":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.<blockquote>尽管Covid-19感染水平仍然很高且本国经济复苏不完全，但蓬勃发展的美国经济正在推高全球通胀并推高美元，这正迫使一些央行加息。</blockquote> The world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.<blockquote>世界各国央行都在关注美联储将如何应对通胀上升，担心陷入美国经济异常扩张的逆流中。全球股市周四下跌，此前美联储官员表示，随着美国经济升温，他们预计将在2023年底前加息，早于3月份的预期。</blockquote> A global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.<blockquote>以美联储为中心的全球加息可能会扼杀一些地方的经济复苏，尤其是在新兴市场债务上升之际。</blockquote> The size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.<blockquote>美国经济规模占世界国内生产总值的近四分之一，其金融市场的重要性长期以来对全球政策制定产生了巨大的影响。但美国今年异常强劲的增长对于仍在从去年的冲击中复苏的世界经济至关重要。根据周三发布的预测，美联储官员预计美国经济今年将增长7%。</blockquote> Central banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.<blockquote>俄罗斯、巴西和土耳其的央行最近几周提高了利率，部分原因是为了抑制今年大宗商品价格飙升引发的通胀。随着世界各地的工厂努力满足美国的需求，从锡到铜等大宗商品的价格飙升。</blockquote> “With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.<blockquote>伦敦牛津经济研究院经济学家塔玛拉·基础·瓦西里耶夫表示：“考虑到疫情带来的所有后果，这些国家现在最不需要的就是收紧政策。”</blockquote> A U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.<blockquote>美国经济繁荣通过增加美国进口和汇款来支持世界各地的经济。但它也推高了借贷成本和通胀，并使美元走强，从而收紧了全球金融状况，抑制了经济复苏。</blockquote> The pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.<blockquote>疼痛感觉不均匀。美元走强损害了以美元借款的新兴市场经济体，同时帮助了欧洲和东亚的大型出口商，这些出口商的产品相对于美国出口更具竞争力。</blockquote> In advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.<blockquote>在发达经济体，央行行长们大多认为，除非消费者预计通胀将持续并要求更高的工资，否则通胀上升将是暂时的。</blockquote> While central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.<blockquote>虽然央行认为这种情况不会很快发生，但一些经济学家认为他们可能会感到惊讶。</blockquote> “I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.<blockquote>法国巴黎银行首席全球经济学家路易吉·斯佩兰萨表示：“我认为这种暂时的价格冲击很可能会变得更加持久。”斯佩兰萨指出，当下一轮薪酬谈判于今年年底开始时，德国的通胀率可能在4%左右。</blockquote> Central banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.<blockquote>经济学家表示，欧洲和日本央行需要配合美联储的鸽派立场，以免本币飙升，从而破坏经济复苏。如果通胀比预期更持久，围绕美联储的微妙舞蹈可能会被打破，这可能会引发加息的连锁反应。</blockquote> “To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.<blockquote>贝莱德宏观研究主管埃尔加·巴奇(Elga Bartsch)表示：“为了防止欧元走强，[欧洲央行]需要像美联储一样采取鸽派立场，由于通胀和增长动态不同，这可能是一场斗争。”</blockquote> Emerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.<blockquote>然而，新兴市场经济体往往没有等待的奢侈。即使是短暂的通胀爆发也会对其货币造成沉重压力，并损害公司和家庭偿还通常以美元或欧元计价的债务的能力。</blockquote> The Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.<blockquote>美联储已表示，将注意避免重演2013年的“缩减恐慌”，当时发展中国家的央行被迫对外国投资的突然撤出做出反应，此前美联储表示正在考虑缩减刺激计划，令投资者感到惊讶。</blockquote> “So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示：“因此，我们对这一过程的意图是有序、有条不紊和透明。”“我可以告诉你，我们看到提前沟通我们的想法是有价值的。我们会尽量说清楚。”</blockquote> But with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.<blockquote>但随着全球通胀加速以及美联储开始改变方针，一些央行的考量正在发生变化。</blockquote> Brazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.<blockquote>巴西央行周三宣布连续第三次加息0.75个百分点，并暗示未来可能会更大幅度加息，因为它正在努力应对8%以上的通胀。</blockquote> The Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.<blockquote>俄罗斯央行今年已三次上调基准利率至5.5%，此前本月通胀率加速至6%以上，为近五年来的最高水平。周二，俄罗斯州长埃尔维拉·纳比乌林娜(Elvira Nabiullina)表示，俄罗斯将继续加息，预计这不会阻碍经济增长。</blockquote> “We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”<blockquote>纳比乌林娜在俄罗斯议会下院发表讲话时表示：“我们在相当长一段时间内一直保持低利率，以确保不会扼杀经济复苏的翅膀。”“现在是加息以应对环境变化和通胀上升的时候了。”</blockquote> Turkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.<blockquote>土耳其央行3月份将主要利率大幅提高至19%，以应对两位数的通胀和里拉贬值。但土耳其里拉最近几周再次面临压力，投资者试图评估央行是否会听从总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的降息要求。</blockquote> Recent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.<blockquote>最近新鲜农产品的价格上涨提高了所谓的罗宋汤套餐——俄罗斯深受喜爱的汤所需的蔬菜——这是许多俄罗斯人的风向标。自年初以来，土豆、卷心菜和胡萝卜的价格上涨了60%至80%。</blockquote> In poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.<blockquote>在贫穷国家，更大份额的支出通常用于食品和能源等必需品，因此当这些价格上涨时，政策制定者会更快地抑制通胀。</blockquote> Central banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.<blockquote>斯堪的纳维亚和韩国央行已暗示计划收紧货币政策，以抑制可能出现的资产泡沫，尤其是房地产泡沫。挪威央行周四暗示将在9月加息。</blockquote> Central banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.<blockquote>包括匈牙利和捷克共和国在内的中欧央行预计也将很快加息。在大流行期间，它们没有遭受与法国和西班牙等欧洲大国相同规模的收缩，但通胀正在上升。</blockquote> Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司固定收益首席投资官Iain Stealey表示，美联储可能会设法避免“缩减恐慌”重演。</blockquote> “It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.<blockquote>“这是一个非常漫长、缓慢的过程……考虑到通胀的意外上行，很难不这样做，”斯蒂利先生说。</blockquote> Still, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.<blockquote>经济学家表示，尽管如此，耐心的方法还是存在问题。</blockquote> “This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.<blockquote>法国兴业银行首席全球经济学家克劳斯·巴德尔表示：“这种让通胀升温的想法……意味着只有当你已经存在通胀问题时，你才会意识到自己存在通胀问题。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRed-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nwsj2021-06-18 17:00\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nA booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.<blockquote>尽管Covid-19感染水平仍然很高且本国经济复苏不完全，但蓬勃发展的美国经济正在推高全球通胀并推高美元，这正迫使一些央行加息。</blockquote> The world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.<blockquote>世界各国央行都在关注美联储将如何应对通胀上升，担心陷入美国经济异常扩张的逆流中。全球股市周四下跌，此前美联储官员表示，随着美国经济升温，他们预计将在2023年底前加息，早于3月份的预期。</blockquote> A global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.<blockquote>以美联储为中心的全球加息可能会扼杀一些地方的经济复苏，尤其是在新兴市场债务上升之际。</blockquote> The size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.<blockquote>美国经济规模占世界国内生产总值的近四分之一，其金融市场的重要性长期以来对全球政策制定产生了巨大的影响。但美国今年异常强劲的增长对于仍在从去年的冲击中复苏的世界经济至关重要。根据周三发布的预测，美联储官员预计美国经济今年将增长7%。</blockquote> Central banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.<blockquote>俄罗斯、巴西和土耳其的央行最近几周提高了利率，部分原因是为了抑制今年大宗商品价格飙升引发的通胀。随着世界各地的工厂努力满足美国的需求，从锡到铜等大宗商品的价格飙升。</blockquote> “With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.<blockquote>伦敦牛津经济研究院经济学家塔玛拉·基础·瓦西里耶夫表示：“考虑到疫情带来的所有后果，这些国家现在最不需要的就是收紧政策。”</blockquote> A U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.<blockquote>美国经济繁荣通过增加美国进口和汇款来支持世界各地的经济。但它也推高了借贷成本和通胀，并使美元走强，从而收紧了全球金融状况，抑制了经济复苏。</blockquote> The pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.<blockquote>疼痛感觉不均匀。美元走强损害了以美元借款的新兴市场经济体，同时帮助了欧洲和东亚的大型出口商，这些出口商的产品相对于美国出口更具竞争力。</blockquote> In advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.<blockquote>在发达经济体，央行行长们大多认为，除非消费者预计通胀将持续并要求更高的工资，否则通胀上升将是暂时的。</blockquote> While central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.<blockquote>虽然央行认为这种情况不会很快发生，但一些经济学家认为他们可能会感到惊讶。</blockquote> “I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.<blockquote>法国巴黎银行首席全球经济学家路易吉·斯佩兰萨表示：“我认为这种暂时的价格冲击很可能会变得更加持久。”斯佩兰萨指出，当下一轮薪酬谈判于今年年底开始时，德国的通胀率可能在4%左右。</blockquote> Central banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.<blockquote>经济学家表示，欧洲和日本央行需要配合美联储的鸽派立场，以免本币飙升，从而破坏经济复苏。如果通胀比预期更持久，围绕美联储的微妙舞蹈可能会被打破，这可能会引发加息的连锁反应。</blockquote> “To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.<blockquote>贝莱德宏观研究主管埃尔加·巴奇(Elga Bartsch)表示：“为了防止欧元走强，[欧洲央行]需要像美联储一样采取鸽派立场，由于通胀和增长动态不同，这可能是一场斗争。”</blockquote> Emerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.<blockquote>然而，新兴市场经济体往往没有等待的奢侈。即使是短暂的通胀爆发也会对其货币造成沉重压力，并损害公司和家庭偿还通常以美元或欧元计价的债务的能力。</blockquote> The Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.<blockquote>美联储已表示，将注意避免重演2013年的“缩减恐慌”，当时发展中国家的央行被迫对外国投资的突然撤出做出反应，此前美联储表示正在考虑缩减刺激计划，令投资者感到惊讶。</blockquote> “So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示：“因此，我们对这一过程的意图是有序、有条不紊和透明。”“我可以告诉你，我们看到提前沟通我们的想法是有价值的。我们会尽量说清楚。”</blockquote> But with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.<blockquote>但随着全球通胀加速以及美联储开始改变方针，一些央行的考量正在发生变化。</blockquote> Brazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.<blockquote>巴西央行周三宣布连续第三次加息0.75个百分点，并暗示未来可能会更大幅度加息，因为它正在努力应对8%以上的通胀。</blockquote> The Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.<blockquote>俄罗斯央行今年已三次上调基准利率至5.5%，此前本月通胀率加速至6%以上，为近五年来的最高水平。周二，俄罗斯州长埃尔维拉·纳比乌林娜(Elvira Nabiullina)表示，俄罗斯将继续加息，预计这不会阻碍经济增长。</blockquote> “We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”<blockquote>纳比乌林娜在俄罗斯议会下院发表讲话时表示：“我们在相当长一段时间内一直保持低利率，以确保不会扼杀经济复苏的翅膀。”“现在是加息以应对环境变化和通胀上升的时候了。”</blockquote> Turkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.<blockquote>土耳其央行3月份将主要利率大幅提高至19%，以应对两位数的通胀和里拉贬值。但土耳其里拉最近几周再次面临压力，投资者试图评估央行是否会听从总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的降息要求。</blockquote> Recent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.<blockquote>最近新鲜农产品的价格上涨提高了所谓的罗宋汤套餐——俄罗斯深受喜爱的汤所需的蔬菜——这是许多俄罗斯人的风向标。自年初以来，土豆、卷心菜和胡萝卜的价格上涨了60%至80%。</blockquote> In poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.<blockquote>在贫穷国家，更大份额的支出通常用于食品和能源等必需品，因此当这些价格上涨时，政策制定者会更快地抑制通胀。</blockquote> Central banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.<blockquote>斯堪的纳维亚和韩国央行已暗示计划收紧货币政策，以抑制可能出现的资产泡沫，尤其是房地产泡沫。挪威央行周四暗示将在9月加息。</blockquote> Central banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.<blockquote>包括匈牙利和捷克共和国在内的中欧央行预计也将很快加息。在大流行期间，它们没有遭受与法国和西班牙等欧洲大国相同规模的收缩，但通胀正在上升。</blockquote> Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司固定收益首席投资官Iain Stealey表示，美联储可能会设法避免“缩减恐慌”重演。</blockquote> “It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.<blockquote>“这是一个非常漫长、缓慢的过程……考虑到通胀的意外上行，很难不这样做，”斯蒂利先生说。</blockquote> Still, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.<blockquote>经济学家表示，尽管如此，耐心的方法还是存在问题。</blockquote> “This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.<blockquote>法国兴业银行首席全球经济学家克劳斯·巴德尔表示：“这种让通胀升温的想法……意味着只有当你已经存在通胀问题时，你才会意识到自己存在通胀问题。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/red-hot-u-s-economy-drives-global-inflation-forcing-foreign-banks-to-act-11623933343?mod=hp_lead_pos6\">wsj</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/red-hot-u-s-economy-drives-global-inflation-forcing-foreign-banks-to-act-11623933343?mod=hp_lead_pos6","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138044913","content_text":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.\nThe world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.\nA global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.\nThe size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.\nCentral banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.\n“With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.\nA U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.\nThe pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.\nIn advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.\nWhile central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.\n“I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.\nCentral banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.\n“To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.\nEmerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.\nThe Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.\n“So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”\nBut with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.\nBrazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.\nThe Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.\n“We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”\nTurkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.\nRecent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.\nIn poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.\nCentral banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.\nCentral banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.\nIain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”\n“It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.\nStill, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.\n“This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":166296650,"gmtCreate":1624010097770,"gmtModify":1631891888663,"author":{"id":"3568352738939624","authorId":"3568352738939624","name":"Spang","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3568352738939624","idStr":"3568352738939624"},"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166296650","repostId":1138044913,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138044913","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624006819,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138044913?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 17:00","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138044913","media":"wsj","summary":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dolla","content":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.<blockquote>尽管Covid-19感染水平仍然很高且本国经济复苏不完全，但蓬勃发展的美国经济正在推高全球通胀并推高美元，这正迫使一些央行加息。</blockquote> The world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.<blockquote>世界各国央行都在关注美联储将如何应对通胀上升，担心陷入美国经济异常扩张的逆流中。全球股市周四下跌，此前美联储官员表示，随着美国经济升温，他们预计将在2023年底前加息，早于3月份的预期。</blockquote> A global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.<blockquote>以美联储为中心的全球加息可能会扼杀一些地方的经济复苏，尤其是在新兴市场债务上升之际。</blockquote> The size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.<blockquote>美国经济规模占世界国内生产总值的近四分之一，其金融市场的重要性长期以来对全球政策制定产生了巨大的影响。但美国今年异常强劲的增长对于仍在从去年的冲击中复苏的世界经济至关重要。根据周三发布的预测，美联储官员预计美国经济今年将增长7%。</blockquote> Central banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.<blockquote>俄罗斯、巴西和土耳其的央行最近几周提高了利率，部分原因是为了抑制今年大宗商品价格飙升引发的通胀。随着世界各地的工厂努力满足美国的需求，从锡到铜等大宗商品的价格飙升。</blockquote> “With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.<blockquote>伦敦牛津经济研究院经济学家塔玛拉·基础·瓦西里耶夫表示：“考虑到疫情带来的所有后果，这些国家现在最不需要的就是收紧政策。”</blockquote> A U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.<blockquote>美国经济繁荣通过增加美国进口和汇款来支持世界各地的经济。但它也推高了借贷成本和通胀，并使美元走强，从而收紧了全球金融状况，抑制了经济复苏。</blockquote> The pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.<blockquote>疼痛感觉不均匀。美元走强损害了以美元借款的新兴市场经济体，同时帮助了欧洲和东亚的大型出口商，这些出口商的产品相对于美国出口更具竞争力。</blockquote> In advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.<blockquote>在发达经济体，央行行长们大多认为，除非消费者预计通胀将持续并要求更高的工资，否则通胀上升将是暂时的。</blockquote> While central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.<blockquote>虽然央行认为这种情况不会很快发生，但一些经济学家认为他们可能会感到惊讶。</blockquote> “I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.<blockquote>法国巴黎银行首席全球经济学家路易吉·斯佩兰萨表示：“我认为这种暂时的价格冲击很可能会变得更加持久。”斯佩兰萨指出，当下一轮薪酬谈判于今年年底开始时，德国的通胀率可能在4%左右。</blockquote> Central banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.<blockquote>经济学家表示，欧洲和日本央行需要配合美联储的鸽派立场，以免本币飙升，从而破坏经济复苏。如果通胀比预期更持久，围绕美联储的微妙舞蹈可能会被打破，这可能会引发加息的连锁反应。</blockquote> “To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.<blockquote>贝莱德宏观研究主管埃尔加·巴奇(Elga Bartsch)表示：“为了防止欧元走强，[欧洲央行]需要像美联储一样采取鸽派立场，由于通胀和增长动态不同，这可能是一场斗争。”</blockquote> Emerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.<blockquote>然而，新兴市场经济体往往没有等待的奢侈。即使是短暂的通胀爆发也会对其货币造成沉重压力，并损害公司和家庭偿还通常以美元或欧元计价的债务的能力。</blockquote> The Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.<blockquote>美联储已表示，将注意避免重演2013年的“缩减恐慌”，当时发展中国家的央行被迫对外国投资的突然撤出做出反应，此前美联储表示正在考虑缩减刺激计划，令投资者感到惊讶。</blockquote> “So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示：“因此，我们对这一过程的意图是有序、有条不紊和透明。”“我可以告诉你，我们看到提前沟通我们的想法是有价值的。我们会尽量说清楚。”</blockquote> But with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.<blockquote>但随着全球通胀加速以及美联储开始改变方针，一些央行的考量正在发生变化。</blockquote> Brazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.<blockquote>巴西央行周三宣布连续第三次加息0.75个百分点，并暗示未来可能会更大幅度加息，因为它正在努力应对8%以上的通胀。</blockquote> The Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.<blockquote>俄罗斯央行今年已三次上调基准利率至5.5%，此前本月通胀率加速至6%以上，为近五年来的最高水平。周二，俄罗斯州长埃尔维拉·纳比乌林娜(Elvira Nabiullina)表示，俄罗斯将继续加息，预计这不会阻碍经济增长。</blockquote> “We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”<blockquote>纳比乌林娜在俄罗斯议会下院发表讲话时表示：“我们在相当长一段时间内一直保持低利率，以确保不会扼杀经济复苏的翅膀。”“现在是加息以应对环境变化和通胀上升的时候了。”</blockquote> Turkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.<blockquote>土耳其央行3月份将主要利率大幅提高至19%，以应对两位数的通胀和里拉贬值。但土耳其里拉最近几周再次面临压力，投资者试图评估央行是否会听从总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的降息要求。</blockquote> Recent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.<blockquote>最近新鲜农产品的价格上涨提高了所谓的罗宋汤套餐——俄罗斯深受喜爱的汤所需的蔬菜——这是许多俄罗斯人的风向标。自年初以来，土豆、卷心菜和胡萝卜的价格上涨了60%至80%。</blockquote> In poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.<blockquote>在贫穷国家，更大份额的支出通常用于食品和能源等必需品，因此当这些价格上涨时，政策制定者会更快地抑制通胀。</blockquote> Central banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.<blockquote>斯堪的纳维亚和韩国央行已暗示计划收紧货币政策，以抑制可能出现的资产泡沫，尤其是房地产泡沫。挪威央行周四暗示将在9月加息。</blockquote> Central banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.<blockquote>包括匈牙利和捷克共和国在内的中欧央行预计也将很快加息。在大流行期间，它们没有遭受与法国和西班牙等欧洲大国相同规模的收缩，但通胀正在上升。</blockquote> Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司固定收益首席投资官Iain Stealey表示，美联储可能会设法避免“缩减恐慌”重演。</blockquote> “It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.<blockquote>“这是一个非常漫长、缓慢的过程……考虑到通胀的意外上行，很难不这样做，”斯蒂利先生说。</blockquote> Still, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.<blockquote>经济学家表示，尽管如此，耐心的方法还是存在问题。</blockquote> “This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.<blockquote>法国兴业银行首席全球经济学家克劳斯·巴德尔表示：“这种让通胀升温的想法……意味着只有当你已经存在通胀问题时，你才会意识到自己存在通胀问题。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRed-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nwsj2021-06-18 17:00\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nA booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.<blockquote>尽管Covid-19感染水平仍然很高且本国经济复苏不完全，但蓬勃发展的美国经济正在推高全球通胀并推高美元，这正迫使一些央行加息。</blockquote> The world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.<blockquote>世界各国央行都在关注美联储将如何应对通胀上升，担心陷入美国经济异常扩张的逆流中。全球股市周四下跌，此前美联储官员表示，随着美国经济升温，他们预计将在2023年底前加息，早于3月份的预期。</blockquote> A global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.<blockquote>以美联储为中心的全球加息可能会扼杀一些地方的经济复苏，尤其是在新兴市场债务上升之际。</blockquote> The size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.<blockquote>美国经济规模占世界国内生产总值的近四分之一，其金融市场的重要性长期以来对全球政策制定产生了巨大的影响。但美国今年异常强劲的增长对于仍在从去年的冲击中复苏的世界经济至关重要。根据周三发布的预测，美联储官员预计美国经济今年将增长7%。</blockquote> Central banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.<blockquote>俄罗斯、巴西和土耳其的央行最近几周提高了利率，部分原因是为了抑制今年大宗商品价格飙升引发的通胀。随着世界各地的工厂努力满足美国的需求，从锡到铜等大宗商品的价格飙升。</blockquote> “With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.<blockquote>伦敦牛津经济研究院经济学家塔玛拉·基础·瓦西里耶夫表示：“考虑到疫情带来的所有后果，这些国家现在最不需要的就是收紧政策。”</blockquote> A U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.<blockquote>美国经济繁荣通过增加美国进口和汇款来支持世界各地的经济。但它也推高了借贷成本和通胀，并使美元走强，从而收紧了全球金融状况，抑制了经济复苏。</blockquote> The pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.<blockquote>疼痛感觉不均匀。美元走强损害了以美元借款的新兴市场经济体，同时帮助了欧洲和东亚的大型出口商，这些出口商的产品相对于美国出口更具竞争力。</blockquote> In advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.<blockquote>在发达经济体，央行行长们大多认为，除非消费者预计通胀将持续并要求更高的工资，否则通胀上升将是暂时的。</blockquote> While central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.<blockquote>虽然央行认为这种情况不会很快发生，但一些经济学家认为他们可能会感到惊讶。</blockquote> “I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.<blockquote>法国巴黎银行首席全球经济学家路易吉·斯佩兰萨表示：“我认为这种暂时的价格冲击很可能会变得更加持久。”斯佩兰萨指出，当下一轮薪酬谈判于今年年底开始时，德国的通胀率可能在4%左右。</blockquote> Central banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.<blockquote>经济学家表示，欧洲和日本央行需要配合美联储的鸽派立场，以免本币飙升，从而破坏经济复苏。如果通胀比预期更持久，围绕美联储的微妙舞蹈可能会被打破，这可能会引发加息的连锁反应。</blockquote> “To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.<blockquote>贝莱德宏观研究主管埃尔加·巴奇(Elga Bartsch)表示：“为了防止欧元走强，[欧洲央行]需要像美联储一样采取鸽派立场，由于通胀和增长动态不同，这可能是一场斗争。”</blockquote> Emerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.<blockquote>然而，新兴市场经济体往往没有等待的奢侈。即使是短暂的通胀爆发也会对其货币造成沉重压力，并损害公司和家庭偿还通常以美元或欧元计价的债务的能力。</blockquote> The Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.<blockquote>美联储已表示，将注意避免重演2013年的“缩减恐慌”，当时发展中国家的央行被迫对外国投资的突然撤出做出反应，此前美联储表示正在考虑缩减刺激计划，令投资者感到惊讶。</blockquote> “So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示：“因此，我们对这一过程的意图是有序、有条不紊和透明。”“我可以告诉你，我们看到提前沟通我们的想法是有价值的。我们会尽量说清楚。”</blockquote> But with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.<blockquote>但随着全球通胀加速以及美联储开始改变方针，一些央行的考量正在发生变化。</blockquote> Brazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.<blockquote>巴西央行周三宣布连续第三次加息0.75个百分点，并暗示未来可能会更大幅度加息，因为它正在努力应对8%以上的通胀。</blockquote> The Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.<blockquote>俄罗斯央行今年已三次上调基准利率至5.5%，此前本月通胀率加速至6%以上，为近五年来的最高水平。周二，俄罗斯州长埃尔维拉·纳比乌林娜(Elvira Nabiullina)表示，俄罗斯将继续加息，预计这不会阻碍经济增长。</blockquote> “We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”<blockquote>纳比乌林娜在俄罗斯议会下院发表讲话时表示：“我们在相当长一段时间内一直保持低利率，以确保不会扼杀经济复苏的翅膀。”“现在是加息以应对环境变化和通胀上升的时候了。”</blockquote> Turkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.<blockquote>土耳其央行3月份将主要利率大幅提高至19%，以应对两位数的通胀和里拉贬值。但土耳其里拉最近几周再次面临压力，投资者试图评估央行是否会听从总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的降息要求。</blockquote> Recent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.<blockquote>最近新鲜农产品的价格上涨提高了所谓的罗宋汤套餐——俄罗斯深受喜爱的汤所需的蔬菜——这是许多俄罗斯人的风向标。自年初以来，土豆、卷心菜和胡萝卜的价格上涨了60%至80%。</blockquote> In poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.<blockquote>在贫穷国家，更大份额的支出通常用于食品和能源等必需品，因此当这些价格上涨时，政策制定者会更快地抑制通胀。</blockquote> Central banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.<blockquote>斯堪的纳维亚和韩国央行已暗示计划收紧货币政策，以抑制可能出现的资产泡沫，尤其是房地产泡沫。挪威央行周四暗示将在9月加息。</blockquote> Central banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.<blockquote>包括匈牙利和捷克共和国在内的中欧央行预计也将很快加息。在大流行期间，它们没有遭受与法国和西班牙等欧洲大国相同规模的收缩，但通胀正在上升。</blockquote> Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司固定收益首席投资官Iain Stealey表示，美联储可能会设法避免“缩减恐慌”重演。</blockquote> “It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.<blockquote>“这是一个非常漫长、缓慢的过程……考虑到通胀的意外上行，很难不这样做，”斯蒂利先生说。</blockquote> Still, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.<blockquote>经济学家表示，尽管如此，耐心的方法还是存在问题。</blockquote> “This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.<blockquote>法国兴业银行首席全球经济学家克劳斯·巴德尔表示：“这种让通胀升温的想法……意味着只有当你已经存在通胀问题时，你才会意识到自己存在通胀问题。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/red-hot-u-s-economy-drives-global-inflation-forcing-foreign-banks-to-act-11623933343?mod=hp_lead_pos6\">wsj</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/red-hot-u-s-economy-drives-global-inflation-forcing-foreign-banks-to-act-11623933343?mod=hp_lead_pos6","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138044913","content_text":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.\nThe world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.\nA global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.\nThe size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.\nCentral banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.\n“With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.\nA U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.\nThe pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.\nIn advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.\nWhile central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.\n“I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.\nCentral banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.\n“To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.\nEmerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.\nThe Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.\n“So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”\nBut with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.\nBrazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.\nThe Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.\n“We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”\nTurkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.\nRecent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.\nIn poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.\nCentral banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.\nCentral banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.\nIain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”\n“It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.\nStill, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.\n“This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":166291046,"gmtCreate":1624009964585,"gmtModify":1631893891493,"author":{"id":"3578917676674127","authorId":"3578917676674127","name":"DJBoy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e89ddb65fea14052b67a417c63273930","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3578917676674127","idStr":"3578917676674127"},"htmlText":"Hyperinflation will be the upcoming crisis!! Please reduce your position if possible!!","listText":"Hyperinflation will be the upcoming crisis!! Please reduce your position if possible!!","text":"Hyperinflation will be the upcoming crisis!! Please reduce your position if possible!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166291046","repostId":1138044913,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138044913","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624006819,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138044913?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 17:00","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138044913","media":"wsj","summary":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dolla","content":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.<blockquote>尽管Covid-19感染水平仍然很高且本国经济复苏不完全，但蓬勃发展的美国经济正在推高全球通胀并推高美元，这正迫使一些央行加息。</blockquote> The world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.<blockquote>世界各国央行都在关注美联储将如何应对通胀上升，担心陷入美国经济异常扩张的逆流中。全球股市周四下跌，此前美联储官员表示，随着美国经济升温，他们预计将在2023年底前加息，早于3月份的预期。</blockquote> A global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.<blockquote>以美联储为中心的全球加息可能会扼杀一些地方的经济复苏，尤其是在新兴市场债务上升之际。</blockquote> The size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.<blockquote>美国经济规模占世界国内生产总值的近四分之一，其金融市场的重要性长期以来对全球政策制定产生了巨大的影响。但美国今年异常强劲的增长对于仍在从去年的冲击中复苏的世界经济至关重要。根据周三发布的预测，美联储官员预计美国经济今年将增长7%。</blockquote> Central banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.<blockquote>俄罗斯、巴西和土耳其的央行最近几周提高了利率，部分原因是为了抑制今年大宗商品价格飙升引发的通胀。随着世界各地的工厂努力满足美国的需求，从锡到铜等大宗商品的价格飙升。</blockquote> “With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.<blockquote>伦敦牛津经济研究院经济学家塔玛拉·基础·瓦西里耶夫表示：“考虑到疫情带来的所有后果，这些国家现在最不需要的就是收紧政策。”</blockquote> A U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.<blockquote>美国经济繁荣通过增加美国进口和汇款来支持世界各地的经济。但它也推高了借贷成本和通胀，并使美元走强，从而收紧了全球金融状况，抑制了经济复苏。</blockquote> The pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.<blockquote>疼痛感觉不均匀。美元走强损害了以美元借款的新兴市场经济体，同时帮助了欧洲和东亚的大型出口商，这些出口商的产品相对于美国出口更具竞争力。</blockquote> In advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.<blockquote>在发达经济体，央行行长们大多认为，除非消费者预计通胀将持续并要求更高的工资，否则通胀上升将是暂时的。</blockquote> While central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.<blockquote>虽然央行认为这种情况不会很快发生，但一些经济学家认为他们可能会感到惊讶。</blockquote> “I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.<blockquote>法国巴黎银行首席全球经济学家路易吉·斯佩兰萨表示：“我认为这种暂时的价格冲击很可能会变得更加持久。”斯佩兰萨指出，当下一轮薪酬谈判于今年年底开始时，德国的通胀率可能在4%左右。</blockquote> Central banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.<blockquote>经济学家表示，欧洲和日本央行需要配合美联储的鸽派立场，以免本币飙升，从而破坏经济复苏。如果通胀比预期更持久，围绕美联储的微妙舞蹈可能会被打破，这可能会引发加息的连锁反应。</blockquote> “To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.<blockquote>贝莱德宏观研究主管埃尔加·巴奇(Elga Bartsch)表示：“为了防止欧元走强，[欧洲央行]需要像美联储一样采取鸽派立场，由于通胀和增长动态不同，这可能是一场斗争。”</blockquote> Emerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.<blockquote>然而，新兴市场经济体往往没有等待的奢侈。即使是短暂的通胀爆发也会对其货币造成沉重压力，并损害公司和家庭偿还通常以美元或欧元计价的债务的能力。</blockquote> The Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.<blockquote>美联储已表示，将注意避免重演2013年的“缩减恐慌”，当时发展中国家的央行被迫对外国投资的突然撤出做出反应，此前美联储表示正在考虑缩减刺激计划，令投资者感到惊讶。</blockquote> “So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示：“因此，我们对这一过程的意图是有序、有条不紊和透明。”“我可以告诉你，我们看到提前沟通我们的想法是有价值的。我们会尽量说清楚。”</blockquote> But with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.<blockquote>但随着全球通胀加速以及美联储开始改变方针，一些央行的考量正在发生变化。</blockquote> Brazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.<blockquote>巴西央行周三宣布连续第三次加息0.75个百分点，并暗示未来可能会更大幅度加息，因为它正在努力应对8%以上的通胀。</blockquote> The Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.<blockquote>俄罗斯央行今年已三次上调基准利率至5.5%，此前本月通胀率加速至6%以上，为近五年来的最高水平。周二，俄罗斯州长埃尔维拉·纳比乌林娜(Elvira Nabiullina)表示，俄罗斯将继续加息，预计这不会阻碍经济增长。</blockquote> “We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”<blockquote>纳比乌林娜在俄罗斯议会下院发表讲话时表示：“我们在相当长一段时间内一直保持低利率，以确保不会扼杀经济复苏的翅膀。”“现在是加息以应对环境变化和通胀上升的时候了。”</blockquote> Turkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.<blockquote>土耳其央行3月份将主要利率大幅提高至19%，以应对两位数的通胀和里拉贬值。但土耳其里拉最近几周再次面临压力，投资者试图评估央行是否会听从总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的降息要求。</blockquote> Recent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.<blockquote>最近新鲜农产品的价格上涨提高了所谓的罗宋汤套餐——俄罗斯深受喜爱的汤所需的蔬菜——这是许多俄罗斯人的风向标。自年初以来，土豆、卷心菜和胡萝卜的价格上涨了60%至80%。</blockquote> In poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.<blockquote>在贫穷国家，更大份额的支出通常用于食品和能源等必需品，因此当这些价格上涨时，政策制定者会更快地抑制通胀。</blockquote> Central banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.<blockquote>斯堪的纳维亚和韩国央行已暗示计划收紧货币政策，以抑制可能出现的资产泡沫，尤其是房地产泡沫。挪威央行周四暗示将在9月加息。</blockquote> Central banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.<blockquote>包括匈牙利和捷克共和国在内的中欧央行预计也将很快加息。在大流行期间，它们没有遭受与法国和西班牙等欧洲大国相同规模的收缩，但通胀正在上升。</blockquote> Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司固定收益首席投资官Iain Stealey表示，美联储可能会设法避免“缩减恐慌”重演。</blockquote> “It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.<blockquote>“这是一个非常漫长、缓慢的过程……考虑到通胀的意外上行，很难不这样做，”斯蒂利先生说。</blockquote> Still, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.<blockquote>经济学家表示，尽管如此，耐心的方法还是存在问题。</blockquote> “This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.<blockquote>法国兴业银行首席全球经济学家克劳斯·巴德尔表示：“这种让通胀升温的想法……意味着只有当你已经存在通胀问题时，你才会意识到自己存在通胀问题。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRed-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nwsj2021-06-18 17:00\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nA booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.<blockquote>尽管Covid-19感染水平仍然很高且本国经济复苏不完全，但蓬勃发展的美国经济正在推高全球通胀并推高美元，这正迫使一些央行加息。</blockquote> The world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.<blockquote>世界各国央行都在关注美联储将如何应对通胀上升，担心陷入美国经济异常扩张的逆流中。全球股市周四下跌，此前美联储官员表示，随着美国经济升温，他们预计将在2023年底前加息，早于3月份的预期。</blockquote> A global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.<blockquote>以美联储为中心的全球加息可能会扼杀一些地方的经济复苏，尤其是在新兴市场债务上升之际。</blockquote> The size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.<blockquote>美国经济规模占世界国内生产总值的近四分之一，其金融市场的重要性长期以来对全球政策制定产生了巨大的影响。但美国今年异常强劲的增长对于仍在从去年的冲击中复苏的世界经济至关重要。根据周三发布的预测，美联储官员预计美国经济今年将增长7%。</blockquote> Central banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.<blockquote>俄罗斯、巴西和土耳其的央行最近几周提高了利率，部分原因是为了抑制今年大宗商品价格飙升引发的通胀。随着世界各地的工厂努力满足美国的需求，从锡到铜等大宗商品的价格飙升。</blockquote> “With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.<blockquote>伦敦牛津经济研究院经济学家塔玛拉·基础·瓦西里耶夫表示：“考虑到疫情带来的所有后果，这些国家现在最不需要的就是收紧政策。”</blockquote> A U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.<blockquote>美国经济繁荣通过增加美国进口和汇款来支持世界各地的经济。但它也推高了借贷成本和通胀，并使美元走强，从而收紧了全球金融状况，抑制了经济复苏。</blockquote> The pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.<blockquote>疼痛感觉不均匀。美元走强损害了以美元借款的新兴市场经济体，同时帮助了欧洲和东亚的大型出口商，这些出口商的产品相对于美国出口更具竞争力。</blockquote> In advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.<blockquote>在发达经济体，央行行长们大多认为，除非消费者预计通胀将持续并要求更高的工资，否则通胀上升将是暂时的。</blockquote> While central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.<blockquote>虽然央行认为这种情况不会很快发生，但一些经济学家认为他们可能会感到惊讶。</blockquote> “I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.<blockquote>法国巴黎银行首席全球经济学家路易吉·斯佩兰萨表示：“我认为这种暂时的价格冲击很可能会变得更加持久。”斯佩兰萨指出，当下一轮薪酬谈判于今年年底开始时，德国的通胀率可能在4%左右。</blockquote> Central banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.<blockquote>经济学家表示，欧洲和日本央行需要配合美联储的鸽派立场，以免本币飙升，从而破坏经济复苏。如果通胀比预期更持久，围绕美联储的微妙舞蹈可能会被打破，这可能会引发加息的连锁反应。</blockquote> “To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.<blockquote>贝莱德宏观研究主管埃尔加·巴奇(Elga Bartsch)表示：“为了防止欧元走强，[欧洲央行]需要像美联储一样采取鸽派立场，由于通胀和增长动态不同，这可能是一场斗争。”</blockquote> Emerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.<blockquote>然而，新兴市场经济体往往没有等待的奢侈。即使是短暂的通胀爆发也会对其货币造成沉重压力，并损害公司和家庭偿还通常以美元或欧元计价的债务的能力。</blockquote> The Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.<blockquote>美联储已表示，将注意避免重演2013年的“缩减恐慌”，当时发展中国家的央行被迫对外国投资的突然撤出做出反应，此前美联储表示正在考虑缩减刺激计划，令投资者感到惊讶。</blockquote> “So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示：“因此，我们对这一过程的意图是有序、有条不紊和透明。”“我可以告诉你，我们看到提前沟通我们的想法是有价值的。我们会尽量说清楚。”</blockquote> But with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.<blockquote>但随着全球通胀加速以及美联储开始改变方针，一些央行的考量正在发生变化。</blockquote> Brazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.<blockquote>巴西央行周三宣布连续第三次加息0.75个百分点，并暗示未来可能会更大幅度加息，因为它正在努力应对8%以上的通胀。</blockquote> The Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.<blockquote>俄罗斯央行今年已三次上调基准利率至5.5%，此前本月通胀率加速至6%以上，为近五年来的最高水平。周二，俄罗斯州长埃尔维拉·纳比乌林娜(Elvira Nabiullina)表示，俄罗斯将继续加息，预计这不会阻碍经济增长。</blockquote> “We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”<blockquote>纳比乌林娜在俄罗斯议会下院发表讲话时表示：“我们在相当长一段时间内一直保持低利率，以确保不会扼杀经济复苏的翅膀。”“现在是加息以应对环境变化和通胀上升的时候了。”</blockquote> Turkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.<blockquote>土耳其央行3月份将主要利率大幅提高至19%，以应对两位数的通胀和里拉贬值。但土耳其里拉最近几周再次面临压力，投资者试图评估央行是否会听从总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的降息要求。</blockquote> Recent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.<blockquote>最近新鲜农产品的价格上涨提高了所谓的罗宋汤套餐——俄罗斯深受喜爱的汤所需的蔬菜——这是许多俄罗斯人的风向标。自年初以来，土豆、卷心菜和胡萝卜的价格上涨了60%至80%。</blockquote> In poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.<blockquote>在贫穷国家，更大份额的支出通常用于食品和能源等必需品，因此当这些价格上涨时，政策制定者会更快地抑制通胀。</blockquote> Central banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.<blockquote>斯堪的纳维亚和韩国央行已暗示计划收紧货币政策，以抑制可能出现的资产泡沫，尤其是房地产泡沫。挪威央行周四暗示将在9月加息。</blockquote> Central banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.<blockquote>包括匈牙利和捷克共和国在内的中欧央行预计也将很快加息。在大流行期间，它们没有遭受与法国和西班牙等欧洲大国相同规模的收缩，但通胀正在上升。</blockquote> Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司固定收益首席投资官Iain Stealey表示，美联储可能会设法避免“缩减恐慌”重演。</blockquote> “It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.<blockquote>“这是一个非常漫长、缓慢的过程……考虑到通胀的意外上行，很难不这样做，”斯蒂利先生说。</blockquote> Still, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.<blockquote>经济学家表示，尽管如此，耐心的方法还是存在问题。</blockquote> “This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.<blockquote>法国兴业银行首席全球经济学家克劳斯·巴德尔表示：“这种让通胀升温的想法……意味着只有当你已经存在通胀问题时，你才会意识到自己存在通胀问题。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/red-hot-u-s-economy-drives-global-inflation-forcing-foreign-banks-to-act-11623933343?mod=hp_lead_pos6\">wsj</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/red-hot-u-s-economy-drives-global-inflation-forcing-foreign-banks-to-act-11623933343?mod=hp_lead_pos6","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138044913","content_text":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.\nThe world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.\nA global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.\nThe size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.\nCentral banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.\n“With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.\nA U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.\nThe pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.\nIn advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.\nWhile central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.\n“I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.\nCentral banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.\n“To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.\nEmerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.\nThe Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.\n“So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”\nBut with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.\nBrazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.\nThe Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.\n“We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”\nTurkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.\nRecent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.\nIn poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.\nCentral banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.\nCentral banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.\nIain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”\n“It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.\nStill, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.\n“This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":166201458,"gmtCreate":1624009385474,"gmtModify":1634024179711,"author":{"id":"3581577540266884","authorId":"3581577540266884","name":"JohnsonYeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7139a0ce522ecb24fe97876b7ccfa905","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3581577540266884","idStr":"3581577540266884"},"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166201458","repostId":1138044913,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138044913","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624006819,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138044913?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 17:00","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138044913","media":"wsj","summary":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dolla","content":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.<blockquote>尽管Covid-19感染水平仍然很高且本国经济复苏不完全，但蓬勃发展的美国经济正在推高全球通胀并推高美元，这正迫使一些央行加息。</blockquote> The world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.<blockquote>世界各国央行都在关注美联储将如何应对通胀上升，担心陷入美国经济异常扩张的逆流中。全球股市周四下跌，此前美联储官员表示，随着美国经济升温，他们预计将在2023年底前加息，早于3月份的预期。</blockquote> A global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.<blockquote>以美联储为中心的全球加息可能会扼杀一些地方的经济复苏，尤其是在新兴市场债务上升之际。</blockquote> The size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.<blockquote>美国经济规模占世界国内生产总值的近四分之一，其金融市场的重要性长期以来对全球政策制定产生了巨大的影响。但美国今年异常强劲的增长对于仍在从去年的冲击中复苏的世界经济至关重要。根据周三发布的预测，美联储官员预计美国经济今年将增长7%。</blockquote> Central banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.<blockquote>俄罗斯、巴西和土耳其的央行最近几周提高了利率，部分原因是为了抑制今年大宗商品价格飙升引发的通胀。随着世界各地的工厂努力满足美国的需求，从锡到铜等大宗商品的价格飙升。</blockquote> “With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.<blockquote>伦敦牛津经济研究院经济学家塔玛拉·基础·瓦西里耶夫表示：“考虑到疫情带来的所有后果，这些国家现在最不需要的就是收紧政策。”</blockquote> A U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.<blockquote>美国经济繁荣通过增加美国进口和汇款来支持世界各地的经济。但它也推高了借贷成本和通胀，并使美元走强，从而收紧了全球金融状况，抑制了经济复苏。</blockquote> The pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.<blockquote>疼痛感觉不均匀。美元走强损害了以美元借款的新兴市场经济体，同时帮助了欧洲和东亚的大型出口商，这些出口商的产品相对于美国出口更具竞争力。</blockquote> In advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.<blockquote>在发达经济体，央行行长们大多认为，除非消费者预计通胀将持续并要求更高的工资，否则通胀上升将是暂时的。</blockquote> While central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.<blockquote>虽然央行认为这种情况不会很快发生，但一些经济学家认为他们可能会感到惊讶。</blockquote> “I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.<blockquote>法国巴黎银行首席全球经济学家路易吉·斯佩兰萨表示：“我认为这种暂时的价格冲击很可能会变得更加持久。”斯佩兰萨指出，当下一轮薪酬谈判于今年年底开始时，德国的通胀率可能在4%左右。</blockquote> Central banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.<blockquote>经济学家表示，欧洲和日本央行需要配合美联储的鸽派立场，以免本币飙升，从而破坏经济复苏。如果通胀比预期更持久，围绕美联储的微妙舞蹈可能会被打破，这可能会引发加息的连锁反应。</blockquote> “To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.<blockquote>贝莱德宏观研究主管埃尔加·巴奇(Elga Bartsch)表示：“为了防止欧元走强，[欧洲央行]需要像美联储一样采取鸽派立场，由于通胀和增长动态不同，这可能是一场斗争。”</blockquote> Emerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.<blockquote>然而，新兴市场经济体往往没有等待的奢侈。即使是短暂的通胀爆发也会对其货币造成沉重压力，并损害公司和家庭偿还通常以美元或欧元计价的债务的能力。</blockquote> The Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.<blockquote>美联储已表示，将注意避免重演2013年的“缩减恐慌”，当时发展中国家的央行被迫对外国投资的突然撤出做出反应，此前美联储表示正在考虑缩减刺激计划，令投资者感到惊讶。</blockquote> “So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示：“因此，我们对这一过程的意图是有序、有条不紊和透明。”“我可以告诉你，我们看到提前沟通我们的想法是有价值的。我们会尽量说清楚。”</blockquote> But with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.<blockquote>但随着全球通胀加速以及美联储开始改变方针，一些央行的考量正在发生变化。</blockquote> Brazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.<blockquote>巴西央行周三宣布连续第三次加息0.75个百分点，并暗示未来可能会更大幅度加息，因为它正在努力应对8%以上的通胀。</blockquote> The Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.<blockquote>俄罗斯央行今年已三次上调基准利率至5.5%，此前本月通胀率加速至6%以上，为近五年来的最高水平。周二，俄罗斯州长埃尔维拉·纳比乌林娜(Elvira Nabiullina)表示，俄罗斯将继续加息，预计这不会阻碍经济增长。</blockquote> “We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”<blockquote>纳比乌林娜在俄罗斯议会下院发表讲话时表示：“我们在相当长一段时间内一直保持低利率，以确保不会扼杀经济复苏的翅膀。”“现在是加息以应对环境变化和通胀上升的时候了。”</blockquote> Turkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.<blockquote>土耳其央行3月份将主要利率大幅提高至19%，以应对两位数的通胀和里拉贬值。但土耳其里拉最近几周再次面临压力，投资者试图评估央行是否会听从总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的降息要求。</blockquote> Recent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.<blockquote>最近新鲜农产品的价格上涨提高了所谓的罗宋汤套餐——俄罗斯深受喜爱的汤所需的蔬菜——这是许多俄罗斯人的风向标。自年初以来，土豆、卷心菜和胡萝卜的价格上涨了60%至80%。</blockquote> In poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.<blockquote>在贫穷国家，更大份额的支出通常用于食品和能源等必需品，因此当这些价格上涨时，政策制定者会更快地抑制通胀。</blockquote> Central banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.<blockquote>斯堪的纳维亚和韩国央行已暗示计划收紧货币政策，以抑制可能出现的资产泡沫，尤其是房地产泡沫。挪威央行周四暗示将在9月加息。</blockquote> Central banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.<blockquote>包括匈牙利和捷克共和国在内的中欧央行预计也将很快加息。在大流行期间，它们没有遭受与法国和西班牙等欧洲大国相同规模的收缩，但通胀正在上升。</blockquote> Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司固定收益首席投资官Iain Stealey表示，美联储可能会设法避免“缩减恐慌”重演。</blockquote> “It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.<blockquote>“这是一个非常漫长、缓慢的过程……考虑到通胀的意外上行，很难不这样做，”斯蒂利先生说。</blockquote> Still, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.<blockquote>经济学家表示，尽管如此，耐心的方法还是存在问题。</blockquote> “This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.<blockquote>法国兴业银行首席全球经济学家克劳斯·巴德尔表示：“这种让通胀升温的想法……意味着只有当你已经存在通胀问题时，你才会意识到自己存在通胀问题。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRed-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nwsj2021-06-18 17:00\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nA booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.<blockquote>尽管Covid-19感染水平仍然很高且本国经济复苏不完全，但蓬勃发展的美国经济正在推高全球通胀并推高美元，这正迫使一些央行加息。</blockquote> The world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.<blockquote>世界各国央行都在关注美联储将如何应对通胀上升，担心陷入美国经济异常扩张的逆流中。全球股市周四下跌，此前美联储官员表示，随着美国经济升温，他们预计将在2023年底前加息，早于3月份的预期。</blockquote> A global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.<blockquote>以美联储为中心的全球加息可能会扼杀一些地方的经济复苏，尤其是在新兴市场债务上升之际。</blockquote> The size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.<blockquote>美国经济规模占世界国内生产总值的近四分之一，其金融市场的重要性长期以来对全球政策制定产生了巨大的影响。但美国今年异常强劲的增长对于仍在从去年的冲击中复苏的世界经济至关重要。根据周三发布的预测，美联储官员预计美国经济今年将增长7%。</blockquote> Central banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.<blockquote>俄罗斯、巴西和土耳其的央行最近几周提高了利率，部分原因是为了抑制今年大宗商品价格飙升引发的通胀。随着世界各地的工厂努力满足美国的需求，从锡到铜等大宗商品的价格飙升。</blockquote> “With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.<blockquote>伦敦牛津经济研究院经济学家塔玛拉·基础·瓦西里耶夫表示：“考虑到疫情带来的所有后果，这些国家现在最不需要的就是收紧政策。”</blockquote> A U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.<blockquote>美国经济繁荣通过增加美国进口和汇款来支持世界各地的经济。但它也推高了借贷成本和通胀，并使美元走强，从而收紧了全球金融状况，抑制了经济复苏。</blockquote> The pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.<blockquote>疼痛感觉不均匀。美元走强损害了以美元借款的新兴市场经济体，同时帮助了欧洲和东亚的大型出口商，这些出口商的产品相对于美国出口更具竞争力。</blockquote> In advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.<blockquote>在发达经济体，央行行长们大多认为，除非消费者预计通胀将持续并要求更高的工资，否则通胀上升将是暂时的。</blockquote> While central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.<blockquote>虽然央行认为这种情况不会很快发生，但一些经济学家认为他们可能会感到惊讶。</blockquote> “I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.<blockquote>法国巴黎银行首席全球经济学家路易吉·斯佩兰萨表示：“我认为这种暂时的价格冲击很可能会变得更加持久。”斯佩兰萨指出，当下一轮薪酬谈判于今年年底开始时，德国的通胀率可能在4%左右。</blockquote> Central banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.<blockquote>经济学家表示，欧洲和日本央行需要配合美联储的鸽派立场，以免本币飙升，从而破坏经济复苏。如果通胀比预期更持久，围绕美联储的微妙舞蹈可能会被打破，这可能会引发加息的连锁反应。</blockquote> “To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.<blockquote>贝莱德宏观研究主管埃尔加·巴奇(Elga Bartsch)表示：“为了防止欧元走强，[欧洲央行]需要像美联储一样采取鸽派立场，由于通胀和增长动态不同，这可能是一场斗争。”</blockquote> Emerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.<blockquote>然而，新兴市场经济体往往没有等待的奢侈。即使是短暂的通胀爆发也会对其货币造成沉重压力，并损害公司和家庭偿还通常以美元或欧元计价的债务的能力。</blockquote> The Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.<blockquote>美联储已表示，将注意避免重演2013年的“缩减恐慌”，当时发展中国家的央行被迫对外国投资的突然撤出做出反应，此前美联储表示正在考虑缩减刺激计划，令投资者感到惊讶。</blockquote> “So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示：“因此，我们对这一过程的意图是有序、有条不紊和透明。”“我可以告诉你，我们看到提前沟通我们的想法是有价值的。我们会尽量说清楚。”</blockquote> But with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.<blockquote>但随着全球通胀加速以及美联储开始改变方针，一些央行的考量正在发生变化。</blockquote> Brazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.<blockquote>巴西央行周三宣布连续第三次加息0.75个百分点，并暗示未来可能会更大幅度加息，因为它正在努力应对8%以上的通胀。</blockquote> The Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.<blockquote>俄罗斯央行今年已三次上调基准利率至5.5%，此前本月通胀率加速至6%以上，为近五年来的最高水平。周二，俄罗斯州长埃尔维拉·纳比乌林娜(Elvira Nabiullina)表示，俄罗斯将继续加息，预计这不会阻碍经济增长。</blockquote> “We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”<blockquote>纳比乌林娜在俄罗斯议会下院发表讲话时表示：“我们在相当长一段时间内一直保持低利率，以确保不会扼杀经济复苏的翅膀。”“现在是加息以应对环境变化和通胀上升的时候了。”</blockquote> Turkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.<blockquote>土耳其央行3月份将主要利率大幅提高至19%，以应对两位数的通胀和里拉贬值。但土耳其里拉最近几周再次面临压力，投资者试图评估央行是否会听从总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的降息要求。</blockquote> Recent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.<blockquote>最近新鲜农产品的价格上涨提高了所谓的罗宋汤套餐——俄罗斯深受喜爱的汤所需的蔬菜——这是许多俄罗斯人的风向标。自年初以来，土豆、卷心菜和胡萝卜的价格上涨了60%至80%。</blockquote> In poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.<blockquote>在贫穷国家，更大份额的支出通常用于食品和能源等必需品，因此当这些价格上涨时，政策制定者会更快地抑制通胀。</blockquote> Central banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.<blockquote>斯堪的纳维亚和韩国央行已暗示计划收紧货币政策，以抑制可能出现的资产泡沫，尤其是房地产泡沫。挪威央行周四暗示将在9月加息。</blockquote> Central banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.<blockquote>包括匈牙利和捷克共和国在内的中欧央行预计也将很快加息。在大流行期间，它们没有遭受与法国和西班牙等欧洲大国相同规模的收缩，但通胀正在上升。</blockquote> Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司固定收益首席投资官Iain Stealey表示，美联储可能会设法避免“缩减恐慌”重演。</blockquote> “It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.<blockquote>“这是一个非常漫长、缓慢的过程……考虑到通胀的意外上行，很难不这样做，”斯蒂利先生说。</blockquote> Still, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.<blockquote>经济学家表示，尽管如此，耐心的方法还是存在问题。</blockquote> “This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.<blockquote>法国兴业银行首席全球经济学家克劳斯·巴德尔表示：“这种让通胀升温的想法……意味着只有当你已经存在通胀问题时，你才会意识到自己存在通胀问题。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/red-hot-u-s-economy-drives-global-inflation-forcing-foreign-banks-to-act-11623933343?mod=hp_lead_pos6\">wsj</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/red-hot-u-s-economy-drives-global-inflation-forcing-foreign-banks-to-act-11623933343?mod=hp_lead_pos6","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138044913","content_text":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.\nThe world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.\nA global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.\nThe size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.\nCentral banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.\n“With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.\nA U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.\nThe pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.\nIn advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.\nWhile central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.\n“I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.\nCentral banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.\n“To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.\nEmerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.\nThe Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.\n“So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”\nBut with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.\nBrazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.\nThe Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.\n“We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”\nTurkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.\nRecent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.\nIn poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.\nCentral banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.\nCentral banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.\nIain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”\n“It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.\nStill, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.\n“This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":166675072,"gmtCreate":1624009034696,"gmtModify":1634024186033,"author":{"id":"3586919946336037","authorId":"3586919946336037","name":"LunaLana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56f40b98ae4d0ece07f4fe2b6ac26bfd","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3586919946336037","idStr":"3586919946336037"},"htmlText":"Nice!","listText":"Nice!","text":"Nice!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166675072","repostId":1138044913,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138044913","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624006819,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138044913?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 17:00","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138044913","media":"wsj","summary":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dolla","content":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.<blockquote>尽管Covid-19感染水平仍然很高且本国经济复苏不完全，但蓬勃发展的美国经济正在推高全球通胀并推高美元，这正迫使一些央行加息。</blockquote> The world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.<blockquote>世界各国央行都在关注美联储将如何应对通胀上升，担心陷入美国经济异常扩张的逆流中。全球股市周四下跌，此前美联储官员表示，随着美国经济升温，他们预计将在2023年底前加息，早于3月份的预期。</blockquote> A global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.<blockquote>以美联储为中心的全球加息可能会扼杀一些地方的经济复苏，尤其是在新兴市场债务上升之际。</blockquote> The size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.<blockquote>美国经济规模占世界国内生产总值的近四分之一，其金融市场的重要性长期以来对全球政策制定产生了巨大的影响。但美国今年异常强劲的增长对于仍在从去年的冲击中复苏的世界经济至关重要。根据周三发布的预测，美联储官员预计美国经济今年将增长7%。</blockquote> Central banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.<blockquote>俄罗斯、巴西和土耳其的央行最近几周提高了利率，部分原因是为了抑制今年大宗商品价格飙升引发的通胀。随着世界各地的工厂努力满足美国的需求，从锡到铜等大宗商品的价格飙升。</blockquote> “With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.<blockquote>伦敦牛津经济研究院经济学家塔玛拉·基础·瓦西里耶夫表示：“考虑到疫情带来的所有后果，这些国家现在最不需要的就是收紧政策。”</blockquote> A U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.<blockquote>美国经济繁荣通过增加美国进口和汇款来支持世界各地的经济。但它也推高了借贷成本和通胀，并使美元走强，从而收紧了全球金融状况，抑制了经济复苏。</blockquote> The pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.<blockquote>疼痛感觉不均匀。美元走强损害了以美元借款的新兴市场经济体，同时帮助了欧洲和东亚的大型出口商，这些出口商的产品相对于美国出口更具竞争力。</blockquote> In advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.<blockquote>在发达经济体，央行行长们大多认为，除非消费者预计通胀将持续并要求更高的工资，否则通胀上升将是暂时的。</blockquote> While central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.<blockquote>虽然央行认为这种情况不会很快发生，但一些经济学家认为他们可能会感到惊讶。</blockquote> “I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.<blockquote>法国巴黎银行首席全球经济学家路易吉·斯佩兰萨表示：“我认为这种暂时的价格冲击很可能会变得更加持久。”斯佩兰萨指出，当下一轮薪酬谈判于今年年底开始时，德国的通胀率可能在4%左右。</blockquote> Central banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.<blockquote>经济学家表示，欧洲和日本央行需要配合美联储的鸽派立场，以免本币飙升，从而破坏经济复苏。如果通胀比预期更持久，围绕美联储的微妙舞蹈可能会被打破，这可能会引发加息的连锁反应。</blockquote> “To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.<blockquote>贝莱德宏观研究主管埃尔加·巴奇(Elga Bartsch)表示：“为了防止欧元走强，[欧洲央行]需要像美联储一样采取鸽派立场，由于通胀和增长动态不同，这可能是一场斗争。”</blockquote> Emerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.<blockquote>然而，新兴市场经济体往往没有等待的奢侈。即使是短暂的通胀爆发也会对其货币造成沉重压力，并损害公司和家庭偿还通常以美元或欧元计价的债务的能力。</blockquote> The Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.<blockquote>美联储已表示，将注意避免重演2013年的“缩减恐慌”，当时发展中国家的央行被迫对外国投资的突然撤出做出反应，此前美联储表示正在考虑缩减刺激计划，令投资者感到惊讶。</blockquote> “So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示：“因此，我们对这一过程的意图是有序、有条不紊和透明。”“我可以告诉你，我们看到提前沟通我们的想法是有价值的。我们会尽量说清楚。”</blockquote> But with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.<blockquote>但随着全球通胀加速以及美联储开始改变方针，一些央行的考量正在发生变化。</blockquote> Brazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.<blockquote>巴西央行周三宣布连续第三次加息0.75个百分点，并暗示未来可能会更大幅度加息，因为它正在努力应对8%以上的通胀。</blockquote> The Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.<blockquote>俄罗斯央行今年已三次上调基准利率至5.5%，此前本月通胀率加速至6%以上，为近五年来的最高水平。周二，俄罗斯州长埃尔维拉·纳比乌林娜(Elvira Nabiullina)表示，俄罗斯将继续加息，预计这不会阻碍经济增长。</blockquote> “We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”<blockquote>纳比乌林娜在俄罗斯议会下院发表讲话时表示：“我们在相当长一段时间内一直保持低利率，以确保不会扼杀经济复苏的翅膀。”“现在是加息以应对环境变化和通胀上升的时候了。”</blockquote> Turkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.<blockquote>土耳其央行3月份将主要利率大幅提高至19%，以应对两位数的通胀和里拉贬值。但土耳其里拉最近几周再次面临压力，投资者试图评估央行是否会听从总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的降息要求。</blockquote> Recent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.<blockquote>最近新鲜农产品的价格上涨提高了所谓的罗宋汤套餐——俄罗斯深受喜爱的汤所需的蔬菜——这是许多俄罗斯人的风向标。自年初以来，土豆、卷心菜和胡萝卜的价格上涨了60%至80%。</blockquote> In poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.<blockquote>在贫穷国家，更大份额的支出通常用于食品和能源等必需品，因此当这些价格上涨时，政策制定者会更快地抑制通胀。</blockquote> Central banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.<blockquote>斯堪的纳维亚和韩国央行已暗示计划收紧货币政策，以抑制可能出现的资产泡沫，尤其是房地产泡沫。挪威央行周四暗示将在9月加息。</blockquote> Central banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.<blockquote>包括匈牙利和捷克共和国在内的中欧央行预计也将很快加息。在大流行期间，它们没有遭受与法国和西班牙等欧洲大国相同规模的收缩，但通胀正在上升。</blockquote> Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司固定收益首席投资官Iain Stealey表示，美联储可能会设法避免“缩减恐慌”重演。</blockquote> “It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.<blockquote>“这是一个非常漫长、缓慢的过程……考虑到通胀的意外上行，很难不这样做，”斯蒂利先生说。</blockquote> Still, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.<blockquote>经济学家表示，尽管如此，耐心的方法还是存在问题。</blockquote> “This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.<blockquote>法国兴业银行首席全球经济学家克劳斯·巴德尔表示：“这种让通胀升温的想法……意味着只有当你已经存在通胀问题时，你才会意识到自己存在通胀问题。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRed-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nwsj2021-06-18 17:00\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nA booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.<blockquote>尽管Covid-19感染水平仍然很高且本国经济复苏不完全，但蓬勃发展的美国经济正在推高全球通胀并推高美元，这正迫使一些央行加息。</blockquote> The world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.<blockquote>世界各国央行都在关注美联储将如何应对通胀上升，担心陷入美国经济异常扩张的逆流中。全球股市周四下跌，此前美联储官员表示，随着美国经济升温，他们预计将在2023年底前加息，早于3月份的预期。</blockquote> A global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.<blockquote>以美联储为中心的全球加息可能会扼杀一些地方的经济复苏，尤其是在新兴市场债务上升之际。</blockquote> The size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.<blockquote>美国经济规模占世界国内生产总值的近四分之一，其金融市场的重要性长期以来对全球政策制定产生了巨大的影响。但美国今年异常强劲的增长对于仍在从去年的冲击中复苏的世界经济至关重要。根据周三发布的预测，美联储官员预计美国经济今年将增长7%。</blockquote> Central banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.<blockquote>俄罗斯、巴西和土耳其的央行最近几周提高了利率，部分原因是为了抑制今年大宗商品价格飙升引发的通胀。随着世界各地的工厂努力满足美国的需求，从锡到铜等大宗商品的价格飙升。</blockquote> “With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.<blockquote>伦敦牛津经济研究院经济学家塔玛拉·基础·瓦西里耶夫表示：“考虑到疫情带来的所有后果，这些国家现在最不需要的就是收紧政策。”</blockquote> A U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.<blockquote>美国经济繁荣通过增加美国进口和汇款来支持世界各地的经济。但它也推高了借贷成本和通胀，并使美元走强，从而收紧了全球金融状况，抑制了经济复苏。</blockquote> The pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.<blockquote>疼痛感觉不均匀。美元走强损害了以美元借款的新兴市场经济体，同时帮助了欧洲和东亚的大型出口商，这些出口商的产品相对于美国出口更具竞争力。</blockquote> In advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.<blockquote>在发达经济体，央行行长们大多认为，除非消费者预计通胀将持续并要求更高的工资，否则通胀上升将是暂时的。</blockquote> While central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.<blockquote>虽然央行认为这种情况不会很快发生，但一些经济学家认为他们可能会感到惊讶。</blockquote> “I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.<blockquote>法国巴黎银行首席全球经济学家路易吉·斯佩兰萨表示：“我认为这种暂时的价格冲击很可能会变得更加持久。”斯佩兰萨指出，当下一轮薪酬谈判于今年年底开始时，德国的通胀率可能在4%左右。</blockquote> Central banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.<blockquote>经济学家表示，欧洲和日本央行需要配合美联储的鸽派立场，以免本币飙升，从而破坏经济复苏。如果通胀比预期更持久，围绕美联储的微妙舞蹈可能会被打破，这可能会引发加息的连锁反应。</blockquote> “To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.<blockquote>贝莱德宏观研究主管埃尔加·巴奇(Elga Bartsch)表示：“为了防止欧元走强，[欧洲央行]需要像美联储一样采取鸽派立场，由于通胀和增长动态不同，这可能是一场斗争。”</blockquote> Emerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.<blockquote>然而，新兴市场经济体往往没有等待的奢侈。即使是短暂的通胀爆发也会对其货币造成沉重压力，并损害公司和家庭偿还通常以美元或欧元计价的债务的能力。</blockquote> The Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.<blockquote>美联储已表示，将注意避免重演2013年的“缩减恐慌”，当时发展中国家的央行被迫对外国投资的突然撤出做出反应，此前美联储表示正在考虑缩减刺激计划，令投资者感到惊讶。</blockquote> “So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示：“因此，我们对这一过程的意图是有序、有条不紊和透明。”“我可以告诉你，我们看到提前沟通我们的想法是有价值的。我们会尽量说清楚。”</blockquote> But with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.<blockquote>但随着全球通胀加速以及美联储开始改变方针，一些央行的考量正在发生变化。</blockquote> Brazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.<blockquote>巴西央行周三宣布连续第三次加息0.75个百分点，并暗示未来可能会更大幅度加息，因为它正在努力应对8%以上的通胀。</blockquote> The Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.<blockquote>俄罗斯央行今年已三次上调基准利率至5.5%，此前本月通胀率加速至6%以上，为近五年来的最高水平。周二，俄罗斯州长埃尔维拉·纳比乌林娜(Elvira Nabiullina)表示，俄罗斯将继续加息，预计这不会阻碍经济增长。</blockquote> “We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”<blockquote>纳比乌林娜在俄罗斯议会下院发表讲话时表示：“我们在相当长一段时间内一直保持低利率，以确保不会扼杀经济复苏的翅膀。”“现在是加息以应对环境变化和通胀上升的时候了。”</blockquote> Turkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.<blockquote>土耳其央行3月份将主要利率大幅提高至19%，以应对两位数的通胀和里拉贬值。但土耳其里拉最近几周再次面临压力，投资者试图评估央行是否会听从总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的降息要求。</blockquote> Recent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.<blockquote>最近新鲜农产品的价格上涨提高了所谓的罗宋汤套餐——俄罗斯深受喜爱的汤所需的蔬菜——这是许多俄罗斯人的风向标。自年初以来，土豆、卷心菜和胡萝卜的价格上涨了60%至80%。</blockquote> In poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.<blockquote>在贫穷国家，更大份额的支出通常用于食品和能源等必需品，因此当这些价格上涨时，政策制定者会更快地抑制通胀。</blockquote> Central banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.<blockquote>斯堪的纳维亚和韩国央行已暗示计划收紧货币政策，以抑制可能出现的资产泡沫，尤其是房地产泡沫。挪威央行周四暗示将在9月加息。</blockquote> Central banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.<blockquote>包括匈牙利和捷克共和国在内的中欧央行预计也将很快加息。在大流行期间，它们没有遭受与法国和西班牙等欧洲大国相同规模的收缩，但通胀正在上升。</blockquote> Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司固定收益首席投资官Iain Stealey表示，美联储可能会设法避免“缩减恐慌”重演。</blockquote> “It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.<blockquote>“这是一个非常漫长、缓慢的过程……考虑到通胀的意外上行，很难不这样做，”斯蒂利先生说。</blockquote> Still, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.<blockquote>经济学家表示，尽管如此，耐心的方法还是存在问题。</blockquote> “This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.<blockquote>法国兴业银行首席全球经济学家克劳斯·巴德尔表示：“这种让通胀升温的想法……意味着只有当你已经存在通胀问题时，你才会意识到自己存在通胀问题。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/red-hot-u-s-economy-drives-global-inflation-forcing-foreign-banks-to-act-11623933343?mod=hp_lead_pos6\">wsj</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/red-hot-u-s-economy-drives-global-inflation-forcing-foreign-banks-to-act-11623933343?mod=hp_lead_pos6","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138044913","content_text":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.\nThe world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.\nA global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.\nThe size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.\nCentral banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.\n“With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.\nA U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.\nThe pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.\nIn advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.\nWhile central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.\n“I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.\nCentral banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.\n“To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.\nEmerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.\nThe Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.\n“So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”\nBut with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.\nBrazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.\nThe Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.\n“We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”\nTurkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.\nRecent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.\nIn poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.\nCentral banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.\nCentral banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.\nIain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”\n“It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.\nStill, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.\n“This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4867585,"gmtCreate":1624009362706,"gmtModify":1635311012084,"authorId":3573173709154952,"author":{"id":3573173709154952,"idStr":"3573173709154952","authorId":3573173709154952,"name":"Remyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fba55b8ded930f0e0223fd0e9ae1c31","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":166675072,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":166671763,"gmtCreate":1624008834852,"gmtModify":1634024188863,"author":{"id":"3552622583017015","authorId":"3552622583017015","name":"Janbeans","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36c1bfa567ef5f23d2e8fabfd03a6a3e","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3552622583017015","idStr":"3552622583017015"},"htmlText":"Next few months will be interesting...","listText":"Next few months will be interesting...","text":"Next few months will be interesting...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166671763","repostId":1138044913,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138044913","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624006819,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138044913?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 17:00","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138044913","media":"wsj","summary":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dolla","content":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.<blockquote>尽管Covid-19感染水平仍然很高且本国经济复苏不完全，但蓬勃发展的美国经济正在推高全球通胀并推高美元，这正迫使一些央行加息。</blockquote> The world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.<blockquote>世界各国央行都在关注美联储将如何应对通胀上升，担心陷入美国经济异常扩张的逆流中。全球股市周四下跌，此前美联储官员表示，随着美国经济升温，他们预计将在2023年底前加息，早于3月份的预期。</blockquote> A global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.<blockquote>以美联储为中心的全球加息可能会扼杀一些地方的经济复苏，尤其是在新兴市场债务上升之际。</blockquote> The size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.<blockquote>美国经济规模占世界国内生产总值的近四分之一，其金融市场的重要性长期以来对全球政策制定产生了巨大的影响。但美国今年异常强劲的增长对于仍在从去年的冲击中复苏的世界经济至关重要。根据周三发布的预测，美联储官员预计美国经济今年将增长7%。</blockquote> Central banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.<blockquote>俄罗斯、巴西和土耳其的央行最近几周提高了利率，部分原因是为了抑制今年大宗商品价格飙升引发的通胀。随着世界各地的工厂努力满足美国的需求，从锡到铜等大宗商品的价格飙升。</blockquote> “With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.<blockquote>伦敦牛津经济研究院经济学家塔玛拉·基础·瓦西里耶夫表示：“考虑到疫情带来的所有后果，这些国家现在最不需要的就是收紧政策。”</blockquote> A U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.<blockquote>美国经济繁荣通过增加美国进口和汇款来支持世界各地的经济。但它也推高了借贷成本和通胀，并使美元走强，从而收紧了全球金融状况，抑制了经济复苏。</blockquote> The pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.<blockquote>疼痛感觉不均匀。美元走强损害了以美元借款的新兴市场经济体，同时帮助了欧洲和东亚的大型出口商，这些出口商的产品相对于美国出口更具竞争力。</blockquote> In advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.<blockquote>在发达经济体，央行行长们大多认为，除非消费者预计通胀将持续并要求更高的工资，否则通胀上升将是暂时的。</blockquote> While central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.<blockquote>虽然央行认为这种情况不会很快发生，但一些经济学家认为他们可能会感到惊讶。</blockquote> “I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.<blockquote>法国巴黎银行首席全球经济学家路易吉·斯佩兰萨表示：“我认为这种暂时的价格冲击很可能会变得更加持久。”斯佩兰萨指出，当下一轮薪酬谈判于今年年底开始时，德国的通胀率可能在4%左右。</blockquote> Central banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.<blockquote>经济学家表示，欧洲和日本央行需要配合美联储的鸽派立场，以免本币飙升，从而破坏经济复苏。如果通胀比预期更持久，围绕美联储的微妙舞蹈可能会被打破，这可能会引发加息的连锁反应。</blockquote> “To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.<blockquote>贝莱德宏观研究主管埃尔加·巴奇(Elga Bartsch)表示：“为了防止欧元走强，[欧洲央行]需要像美联储一样采取鸽派立场，由于通胀和增长动态不同，这可能是一场斗争。”</blockquote> Emerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.<blockquote>然而，新兴市场经济体往往没有等待的奢侈。即使是短暂的通胀爆发也会对其货币造成沉重压力，并损害公司和家庭偿还通常以美元或欧元计价的债务的能力。</blockquote> The Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.<blockquote>美联储已表示，将注意避免重演2013年的“缩减恐慌”，当时发展中国家的央行被迫对外国投资的突然撤出做出反应，此前美联储表示正在考虑缩减刺激计划，令投资者感到惊讶。</blockquote> “So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示：“因此，我们对这一过程的意图是有序、有条不紊和透明。”“我可以告诉你，我们看到提前沟通我们的想法是有价值的。我们会尽量说清楚。”</blockquote> But with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.<blockquote>但随着全球通胀加速以及美联储开始改变方针，一些央行的考量正在发生变化。</blockquote> Brazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.<blockquote>巴西央行周三宣布连续第三次加息0.75个百分点，并暗示未来可能会更大幅度加息，因为它正在努力应对8%以上的通胀。</blockquote> The Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.<blockquote>俄罗斯央行今年已三次上调基准利率至5.5%，此前本月通胀率加速至6%以上，为近五年来的最高水平。周二，俄罗斯州长埃尔维拉·纳比乌林娜(Elvira Nabiullina)表示，俄罗斯将继续加息，预计这不会阻碍经济增长。</blockquote> “We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”<blockquote>纳比乌林娜在俄罗斯议会下院发表讲话时表示：“我们在相当长一段时间内一直保持低利率，以确保不会扼杀经济复苏的翅膀。”“现在是加息以应对环境变化和通胀上升的时候了。”</blockquote> Turkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.<blockquote>土耳其央行3月份将主要利率大幅提高至19%，以应对两位数的通胀和里拉贬值。但土耳其里拉最近几周再次面临压力，投资者试图评估央行是否会听从总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的降息要求。</blockquote> Recent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.<blockquote>最近新鲜农产品的价格上涨提高了所谓的罗宋汤套餐——俄罗斯深受喜爱的汤所需的蔬菜——这是许多俄罗斯人的风向标。自年初以来，土豆、卷心菜和胡萝卜的价格上涨了60%至80%。</blockquote> In poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.<blockquote>在贫穷国家，更大份额的支出通常用于食品和能源等必需品，因此当这些价格上涨时，政策制定者会更快地抑制通胀。</blockquote> Central banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.<blockquote>斯堪的纳维亚和韩国央行已暗示计划收紧货币政策，以抑制可能出现的资产泡沫，尤其是房地产泡沫。挪威央行周四暗示将在9月加息。</blockquote> Central banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.<blockquote>包括匈牙利和捷克共和国在内的中欧央行预计也将很快加息。在大流行期间，它们没有遭受与法国和西班牙等欧洲大国相同规模的收缩，但通胀正在上升。</blockquote> Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司固定收益首席投资官Iain Stealey表示，美联储可能会设法避免“缩减恐慌”重演。</blockquote> “It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.<blockquote>“这是一个非常漫长、缓慢的过程……考虑到通胀的意外上行，很难不这样做，”斯蒂利先生说。</blockquote> Still, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.<blockquote>经济学家表示，尽管如此，耐心的方法还是存在问题。</blockquote> “This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.<blockquote>法国兴业银行首席全球经济学家克劳斯·巴德尔表示：“这种让通胀升温的想法……意味着只有当你已经存在通胀问题时，你才会意识到自己存在通胀问题。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRed-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nwsj2021-06-18 17:00\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nA booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.<blockquote>尽管Covid-19感染水平仍然很高且本国经济复苏不完全，但蓬勃发展的美国经济正在推高全球通胀并推高美元，这正迫使一些央行加息。</blockquote> The world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.<blockquote>世界各国央行都在关注美联储将如何应对通胀上升，担心陷入美国经济异常扩张的逆流中。全球股市周四下跌，此前美联储官员表示，随着美国经济升温，他们预计将在2023年底前加息，早于3月份的预期。</blockquote> A global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.<blockquote>以美联储为中心的全球加息可能会扼杀一些地方的经济复苏，尤其是在新兴市场债务上升之际。</blockquote> The size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.<blockquote>美国经济规模占世界国内生产总值的近四分之一，其金融市场的重要性长期以来对全球政策制定产生了巨大的影响。但美国今年异常强劲的增长对于仍在从去年的冲击中复苏的世界经济至关重要。根据周三发布的预测，美联储官员预计美国经济今年将增长7%。</blockquote> Central banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.<blockquote>俄罗斯、巴西和土耳其的央行最近几周提高了利率，部分原因是为了抑制今年大宗商品价格飙升引发的通胀。随着世界各地的工厂努力满足美国的需求，从锡到铜等大宗商品的价格飙升。</blockquote> “With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.<blockquote>伦敦牛津经济研究院经济学家塔玛拉·基础·瓦西里耶夫表示：“考虑到疫情带来的所有后果，这些国家现在最不需要的就是收紧政策。”</blockquote> A U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.<blockquote>美国经济繁荣通过增加美国进口和汇款来支持世界各地的经济。但它也推高了借贷成本和通胀，并使美元走强，从而收紧了全球金融状况，抑制了经济复苏。</blockquote> The pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.<blockquote>疼痛感觉不均匀。美元走强损害了以美元借款的新兴市场经济体，同时帮助了欧洲和东亚的大型出口商，这些出口商的产品相对于美国出口更具竞争力。</blockquote> In advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.<blockquote>在发达经济体，央行行长们大多认为，除非消费者预计通胀将持续并要求更高的工资，否则通胀上升将是暂时的。</blockquote> While central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.<blockquote>虽然央行认为这种情况不会很快发生，但一些经济学家认为他们可能会感到惊讶。</blockquote> “I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.<blockquote>法国巴黎银行首席全球经济学家路易吉·斯佩兰萨表示：“我认为这种暂时的价格冲击很可能会变得更加持久。”斯佩兰萨指出，当下一轮薪酬谈判于今年年底开始时，德国的通胀率可能在4%左右。</blockquote> Central banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.<blockquote>经济学家表示，欧洲和日本央行需要配合美联储的鸽派立场，以免本币飙升，从而破坏经济复苏。如果通胀比预期更持久，围绕美联储的微妙舞蹈可能会被打破，这可能会引发加息的连锁反应。</blockquote> “To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.<blockquote>贝莱德宏观研究主管埃尔加·巴奇(Elga Bartsch)表示：“为了防止欧元走强，[欧洲央行]需要像美联储一样采取鸽派立场，由于通胀和增长动态不同，这可能是一场斗争。”</blockquote> Emerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.<blockquote>然而，新兴市场经济体往往没有等待的奢侈。即使是短暂的通胀爆发也会对其货币造成沉重压力，并损害公司和家庭偿还通常以美元或欧元计价的债务的能力。</blockquote> The Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.<blockquote>美联储已表示，将注意避免重演2013年的“缩减恐慌”，当时发展中国家的央行被迫对外国投资的突然撤出做出反应，此前美联储表示正在考虑缩减刺激计划，令投资者感到惊讶。</blockquote> “So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示：“因此，我们对这一过程的意图是有序、有条不紊和透明。”“我可以告诉你，我们看到提前沟通我们的想法是有价值的。我们会尽量说清楚。”</blockquote> But with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.<blockquote>但随着全球通胀加速以及美联储开始改变方针，一些央行的考量正在发生变化。</blockquote> Brazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.<blockquote>巴西央行周三宣布连续第三次加息0.75个百分点，并暗示未来可能会更大幅度加息，因为它正在努力应对8%以上的通胀。</blockquote> The Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.<blockquote>俄罗斯央行今年已三次上调基准利率至5.5%，此前本月通胀率加速至6%以上，为近五年来的最高水平。周二，俄罗斯州长埃尔维拉·纳比乌林娜(Elvira Nabiullina)表示，俄罗斯将继续加息，预计这不会阻碍经济增长。</blockquote> “We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”<blockquote>纳比乌林娜在俄罗斯议会下院发表讲话时表示：“我们在相当长一段时间内一直保持低利率，以确保不会扼杀经济复苏的翅膀。”“现在是加息以应对环境变化和通胀上升的时候了。”</blockquote> Turkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.<blockquote>土耳其央行3月份将主要利率大幅提高至19%，以应对两位数的通胀和里拉贬值。但土耳其里拉最近几周再次面临压力，投资者试图评估央行是否会听从总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的降息要求。</blockquote> Recent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.<blockquote>最近新鲜农产品的价格上涨提高了所谓的罗宋汤套餐——俄罗斯深受喜爱的汤所需的蔬菜——这是许多俄罗斯人的风向标。自年初以来，土豆、卷心菜和胡萝卜的价格上涨了60%至80%。</blockquote> In poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.<blockquote>在贫穷国家，更大份额的支出通常用于食品和能源等必需品，因此当这些价格上涨时，政策制定者会更快地抑制通胀。</blockquote> Central banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.<blockquote>斯堪的纳维亚和韩国央行已暗示计划收紧货币政策，以抑制可能出现的资产泡沫，尤其是房地产泡沫。挪威央行周四暗示将在9月加息。</blockquote> Central banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.<blockquote>包括匈牙利和捷克共和国在内的中欧央行预计也将很快加息。在大流行期间，它们没有遭受与法国和西班牙等欧洲大国相同规模的收缩，但通胀正在上升。</blockquote> Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司固定收益首席投资官Iain Stealey表示，美联储可能会设法避免“缩减恐慌”重演。</blockquote> “It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.<blockquote>“这是一个非常漫长、缓慢的过程……考虑到通胀的意外上行，很难不这样做，”斯蒂利先生说。</blockquote> Still, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.<blockquote>经济学家表示，尽管如此，耐心的方法还是存在问题。</blockquote> “This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.<blockquote>法国兴业银行首席全球经济学家克劳斯·巴德尔表示：“这种让通胀升温的想法……意味着只有当你已经存在通胀问题时，你才会意识到自己存在通胀问题。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/red-hot-u-s-economy-drives-global-inflation-forcing-foreign-banks-to-act-11623933343?mod=hp_lead_pos6\">wsj</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/red-hot-u-s-economy-drives-global-inflation-forcing-foreign-banks-to-act-11623933343?mod=hp_lead_pos6","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138044913","content_text":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.\nThe world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.\nA global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.\nThe size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.\nCentral banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.\n“With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.\nA U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.\nThe pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.\nIn advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.\nWhile central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.\n“I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.\nCentral banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.\n“To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.\nEmerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.\nThe Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.\n“So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”\nBut with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.\nBrazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.\nThe Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.\n“We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”\nTurkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.\nRecent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.\nIn poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.\nCentral banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.\nCentral banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.\nIain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”\n“It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.\nStill, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.\n“This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4868477,"gmtCreate":1624013037067,"gmtModify":1635310934896,"authorId":3574671514316116,"author":{"id":3574671514316116,"idStr":"3574671514316116","authorId":3574671514316116,"name":"KryZ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91c62b44c75f8a4a9e0b7566bd02134d","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":166671763,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Yup. GLTA.","text":"Yup. GLTA.","html":"Yup. GLTA."},{"id":4868489,"gmtCreate":1624013075573,"gmtModify":1635310933988,"authorId":3574671514316116,"author":{"id":3574671514316116,"idStr":"3574671514316116","authorId":3574671514316116,"name":"KryZ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91c62b44c75f8a4a9e0b7566bd02134d","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":166671763,"type":1,"supId":4868477,"prevId":0,"content":"lol. why is my comment in chinese???","text":"lol. why is my comment in chinese???","html":"lol. why is my comment in chinese???"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":166644902,"gmtCreate":1624008442706,"gmtModify":1634024192671,"author":{"id":"3561422859364984","authorId":"3561422859364984","name":"joelcjr93","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3561422859364984","idStr":"3561422859364984"},"htmlText":"Nice!&nbsp;","listText":"Nice!&nbsp;","text":"Nice!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166644902","repostId":1138044913,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138044913","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624006819,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138044913?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 17:00","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138044913","media":"wsj","summary":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dolla","content":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.<blockquote>尽管Covid-19感染水平仍然很高且本国经济复苏不完全，但蓬勃发展的美国经济正在推高全球通胀并推高美元，这正迫使一些央行加息。</blockquote> The world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.<blockquote>世界各国央行都在关注美联储将如何应对通胀上升，担心陷入美国经济异常扩张的逆流中。全球股市周四下跌，此前美联储官员表示，随着美国经济升温，他们预计将在2023年底前加息，早于3月份的预期。</blockquote> A global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.<blockquote>以美联储为中心的全球加息可能会扼杀一些地方的经济复苏，尤其是在新兴市场债务上升之际。</blockquote> The size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.<blockquote>美国经济规模占世界国内生产总值的近四分之一，其金融市场的重要性长期以来对全球政策制定产生了巨大的影响。但美国今年异常强劲的增长对于仍在从去年的冲击中复苏的世界经济至关重要。根据周三发布的预测，美联储官员预计美国经济今年将增长7%。</blockquote> Central banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.<blockquote>俄罗斯、巴西和土耳其的央行最近几周提高了利率，部分原因是为了抑制今年大宗商品价格飙升引发的通胀。随着世界各地的工厂努力满足美国的需求，从锡到铜等大宗商品的价格飙升。</blockquote> “With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.<blockquote>伦敦牛津经济研究院经济学家塔玛拉·基础·瓦西里耶夫表示：“考虑到疫情带来的所有后果，这些国家现在最不需要的就是收紧政策。”</blockquote> A U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.<blockquote>美国经济繁荣通过增加美国进口和汇款来支持世界各地的经济。但它也推高了借贷成本和通胀，并使美元走强，从而收紧了全球金融状况，抑制了经济复苏。</blockquote> The pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.<blockquote>疼痛感觉不均匀。美元走强损害了以美元借款的新兴市场经济体，同时帮助了欧洲和东亚的大型出口商，这些出口商的产品相对于美国出口更具竞争力。</blockquote> In advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.<blockquote>在发达经济体，央行行长们大多认为，除非消费者预计通胀将持续并要求更高的工资，否则通胀上升将是暂时的。</blockquote> While central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.<blockquote>虽然央行认为这种情况不会很快发生，但一些经济学家认为他们可能会感到惊讶。</blockquote> “I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.<blockquote>法国巴黎银行首席全球经济学家路易吉·斯佩兰萨表示：“我认为这种暂时的价格冲击很可能会变得更加持久。”斯佩兰萨指出，当下一轮薪酬谈判于今年年底开始时，德国的通胀率可能在4%左右。</blockquote> Central banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.<blockquote>经济学家表示，欧洲和日本央行需要配合美联储的鸽派立场，以免本币飙升，从而破坏经济复苏。如果通胀比预期更持久，围绕美联储的微妙舞蹈可能会被打破，这可能会引发加息的连锁反应。</blockquote> “To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.<blockquote>贝莱德宏观研究主管埃尔加·巴奇(Elga Bartsch)表示：“为了防止欧元走强，[欧洲央行]需要像美联储一样采取鸽派立场，由于通胀和增长动态不同，这可能是一场斗争。”</blockquote> Emerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.<blockquote>然而，新兴市场经济体往往没有等待的奢侈。即使是短暂的通胀爆发也会对其货币造成沉重压力，并损害公司和家庭偿还通常以美元或欧元计价的债务的能力。</blockquote> The Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.<blockquote>美联储已表示，将注意避免重演2013年的“缩减恐慌”，当时发展中国家的央行被迫对外国投资的突然撤出做出反应，此前美联储表示正在考虑缩减刺激计划，令投资者感到惊讶。</blockquote> “So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示：“因此，我们对这一过程的意图是有序、有条不紊和透明。”“我可以告诉你，我们看到提前沟通我们的想法是有价值的。我们会尽量说清楚。”</blockquote> But with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.<blockquote>但随着全球通胀加速以及美联储开始改变方针，一些央行的考量正在发生变化。</blockquote> Brazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.<blockquote>巴西央行周三宣布连续第三次加息0.75个百分点，并暗示未来可能会更大幅度加息，因为它正在努力应对8%以上的通胀。</blockquote> The Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.<blockquote>俄罗斯央行今年已三次上调基准利率至5.5%，此前本月通胀率加速至6%以上，为近五年来的最高水平。周二，俄罗斯州长埃尔维拉·纳比乌林娜(Elvira Nabiullina)表示，俄罗斯将继续加息，预计这不会阻碍经济增长。</blockquote> “We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”<blockquote>纳比乌林娜在俄罗斯议会下院发表讲话时表示：“我们在相当长一段时间内一直保持低利率，以确保不会扼杀经济复苏的翅膀。”“现在是加息以应对环境变化和通胀上升的时候了。”</blockquote> Turkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.<blockquote>土耳其央行3月份将主要利率大幅提高至19%，以应对两位数的通胀和里拉贬值。但土耳其里拉最近几周再次面临压力，投资者试图评估央行是否会听从总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的降息要求。</blockquote> Recent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.<blockquote>最近新鲜农产品的价格上涨提高了所谓的罗宋汤套餐——俄罗斯深受喜爱的汤所需的蔬菜——这是许多俄罗斯人的风向标。自年初以来，土豆、卷心菜和胡萝卜的价格上涨了60%至80%。</blockquote> In poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.<blockquote>在贫穷国家，更大份额的支出通常用于食品和能源等必需品，因此当这些价格上涨时，政策制定者会更快地抑制通胀。</blockquote> Central banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.<blockquote>斯堪的纳维亚和韩国央行已暗示计划收紧货币政策，以抑制可能出现的资产泡沫，尤其是房地产泡沫。挪威央行周四暗示将在9月加息。</blockquote> Central banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.<blockquote>包括匈牙利和捷克共和国在内的中欧央行预计也将很快加息。在大流行期间，它们没有遭受与法国和西班牙等欧洲大国相同规模的收缩，但通胀正在上升。</blockquote> Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司固定收益首席投资官Iain Stealey表示，美联储可能会设法避免“缩减恐慌”重演。</blockquote> “It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.<blockquote>“这是一个非常漫长、缓慢的过程……考虑到通胀的意外上行，很难不这样做，”斯蒂利先生说。</blockquote> Still, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.<blockquote>经济学家表示，尽管如此，耐心的方法还是存在问题。</blockquote> “This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.<blockquote>法国兴业银行首席全球经济学家克劳斯·巴德尔表示：“这种让通胀升温的想法……意味着只有当你已经存在通胀问题时，你才会意识到自己存在通胀问题。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRed-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nwsj2021-06-18 17:00\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nA booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.<blockquote>尽管Covid-19感染水平仍然很高且本国经济复苏不完全，但蓬勃发展的美国经济正在推高全球通胀并推高美元，这正迫使一些央行加息。</blockquote> The world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.<blockquote>世界各国央行都在关注美联储将如何应对通胀上升，担心陷入美国经济异常扩张的逆流中。全球股市周四下跌，此前美联储官员表示，随着美国经济升温，他们预计将在2023年底前加息，早于3月份的预期。</blockquote> A global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.<blockquote>以美联储为中心的全球加息可能会扼杀一些地方的经济复苏，尤其是在新兴市场债务上升之际。</blockquote> The size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.<blockquote>美国经济规模占世界国内生产总值的近四分之一，其金融市场的重要性长期以来对全球政策制定产生了巨大的影响。但美国今年异常强劲的增长对于仍在从去年的冲击中复苏的世界经济至关重要。根据周三发布的预测，美联储官员预计美国经济今年将增长7%。</blockquote> Central banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.<blockquote>俄罗斯、巴西和土耳其的央行最近几周提高了利率，部分原因是为了抑制今年大宗商品价格飙升引发的通胀。随着世界各地的工厂努力满足美国的需求，从锡到铜等大宗商品的价格飙升。</blockquote> “With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.<blockquote>伦敦牛津经济研究院经济学家塔玛拉·基础·瓦西里耶夫表示：“考虑到疫情带来的所有后果，这些国家现在最不需要的就是收紧政策。”</blockquote> A U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.<blockquote>美国经济繁荣通过增加美国进口和汇款来支持世界各地的经济。但它也推高了借贷成本和通胀，并使美元走强，从而收紧了全球金融状况，抑制了经济复苏。</blockquote> The pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.<blockquote>疼痛感觉不均匀。美元走强损害了以美元借款的新兴市场经济体，同时帮助了欧洲和东亚的大型出口商，这些出口商的产品相对于美国出口更具竞争力。</blockquote> In advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.<blockquote>在发达经济体，央行行长们大多认为，除非消费者预计通胀将持续并要求更高的工资，否则通胀上升将是暂时的。</blockquote> While central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.<blockquote>虽然央行认为这种情况不会很快发生，但一些经济学家认为他们可能会感到惊讶。</blockquote> “I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.<blockquote>法国巴黎银行首席全球经济学家路易吉·斯佩兰萨表示：“我认为这种暂时的价格冲击很可能会变得更加持久。”斯佩兰萨指出，当下一轮薪酬谈判于今年年底开始时，德国的通胀率可能在4%左右。</blockquote> Central banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.<blockquote>经济学家表示，欧洲和日本央行需要配合美联储的鸽派立场，以免本币飙升，从而破坏经济复苏。如果通胀比预期更持久，围绕美联储的微妙舞蹈可能会被打破，这可能会引发加息的连锁反应。</blockquote> “To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.<blockquote>贝莱德宏观研究主管埃尔加·巴奇(Elga Bartsch)表示：“为了防止欧元走强，[欧洲央行]需要像美联储一样采取鸽派立场，由于通胀和增长动态不同，这可能是一场斗争。”</blockquote> Emerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.<blockquote>然而，新兴市场经济体往往没有等待的奢侈。即使是短暂的通胀爆发也会对其货币造成沉重压力，并损害公司和家庭偿还通常以美元或欧元计价的债务的能力。</blockquote> The Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.<blockquote>美联储已表示，将注意避免重演2013年的“缩减恐慌”，当时发展中国家的央行被迫对外国投资的突然撤出做出反应，此前美联储表示正在考虑缩减刺激计划，令投资者感到惊讶。</blockquote> “So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示：“因此，我们对这一过程的意图是有序、有条不紊和透明。”“我可以告诉你，我们看到提前沟通我们的想法是有价值的。我们会尽量说清楚。”</blockquote> But with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.<blockquote>但随着全球通胀加速以及美联储开始改变方针，一些央行的考量正在发生变化。</blockquote> Brazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.<blockquote>巴西央行周三宣布连续第三次加息0.75个百分点，并暗示未来可能会更大幅度加息，因为它正在努力应对8%以上的通胀。</blockquote> The Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.<blockquote>俄罗斯央行今年已三次上调基准利率至5.5%，此前本月通胀率加速至6%以上，为近五年来的最高水平。周二，俄罗斯州长埃尔维拉·纳比乌林娜(Elvira Nabiullina)表示，俄罗斯将继续加息，预计这不会阻碍经济增长。</blockquote> “We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”<blockquote>纳比乌林娜在俄罗斯议会下院发表讲话时表示：“我们在相当长一段时间内一直保持低利率，以确保不会扼杀经济复苏的翅膀。”“现在是加息以应对环境变化和通胀上升的时候了。”</blockquote> Turkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.<blockquote>土耳其央行3月份将主要利率大幅提高至19%，以应对两位数的通胀和里拉贬值。但土耳其里拉最近几周再次面临压力，投资者试图评估央行是否会听从总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的降息要求。</blockquote> Recent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.<blockquote>最近新鲜农产品的价格上涨提高了所谓的罗宋汤套餐——俄罗斯深受喜爱的汤所需的蔬菜——这是许多俄罗斯人的风向标。自年初以来，土豆、卷心菜和胡萝卜的价格上涨了60%至80%。</blockquote> In poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.<blockquote>在贫穷国家，更大份额的支出通常用于食品和能源等必需品，因此当这些价格上涨时，政策制定者会更快地抑制通胀。</blockquote> Central banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.<blockquote>斯堪的纳维亚和韩国央行已暗示计划收紧货币政策，以抑制可能出现的资产泡沫，尤其是房地产泡沫。挪威央行周四暗示将在9月加息。</blockquote> Central banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.<blockquote>包括匈牙利和捷克共和国在内的中欧央行预计也将很快加息。在大流行期间，它们没有遭受与法国和西班牙等欧洲大国相同规模的收缩，但通胀正在上升。</blockquote> Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司固定收益首席投资官Iain Stealey表示，美联储可能会设法避免“缩减恐慌”重演。</blockquote> “It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.<blockquote>“这是一个非常漫长、缓慢的过程……考虑到通胀的意外上行，很难不这样做，”斯蒂利先生说。</blockquote> Still, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.<blockquote>经济学家表示，尽管如此，耐心的方法还是存在问题。</blockquote> “This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.<blockquote>法国兴业银行首席全球经济学家克劳斯·巴德尔表示：“这种让通胀升温的想法……意味着只有当你已经存在通胀问题时，你才会意识到自己存在通胀问题。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/red-hot-u-s-economy-drives-global-inflation-forcing-foreign-banks-to-act-11623933343?mod=hp_lead_pos6\">wsj</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/red-hot-u-s-economy-drives-global-inflation-forcing-foreign-banks-to-act-11623933343?mod=hp_lead_pos6","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138044913","content_text":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.\nThe world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.\nA global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.\nThe size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.\nCentral banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.\n“With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.\nA U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.\nThe pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.\nIn advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.\nWhile central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.\n“I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.\nCentral banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.\n“To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.\nEmerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.\nThe Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.\n“So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”\nBut with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.\nBrazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.\nThe Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.\n“We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”\nTurkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.\nRecent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.\nIn poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.\nCentral banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.\nCentral banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.\nIain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”\n“It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.\nStill, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.\n“This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4867394,"gmtCreate":1624008577807,"gmtModify":1635311027907,"authorId":3576232257279797,"author":{"id":3576232257279797,"idStr":"3576232257279797","authorId":3576232257279797,"name":"43c0b98","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":166644902,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"I trying to reach mythic 2 lol, i now 344/400 liao","text":"I trying to reach mythic 2 lol, i now 344/400 liao","html":"I trying to reach mythic 2 lol, i now 344/400 liao"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":166650037,"gmtCreate":1624007442729,"gmtModify":1634024205981,"author":{"id":"3548659340886358","authorId":"3548659340886358","name":"老木不朽","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b7c249f8702df4b6d4a8a6346ce6b5d","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3548659340886358","idStr":"3548659340886358"},"htmlText":"Like and comment. Thanks [爱你]&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment. Thanks [爱你]&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment. Thanks [爱你]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166650037","repostId":1138044913,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138044913","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624006819,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138044913?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 17:00","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138044913","media":"wsj","summary":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dolla","content":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.<blockquote>尽管Covid-19感染水平仍然很高且本国经济复苏不完全，但蓬勃发展的美国经济正在推高全球通胀并推高美元，这正迫使一些央行加息。</blockquote> The world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.<blockquote>世界各国央行都在关注美联储将如何应对通胀上升，担心陷入美国经济异常扩张的逆流中。全球股市周四下跌，此前美联储官员表示，随着美国经济升温，他们预计将在2023年底前加息，早于3月份的预期。</blockquote> A global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.<blockquote>以美联储为中心的全球加息可能会扼杀一些地方的经济复苏，尤其是在新兴市场债务上升之际。</blockquote> The size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.<blockquote>美国经济规模占世界国内生产总值的近四分之一，其金融市场的重要性长期以来对全球政策制定产生了巨大的影响。但美国今年异常强劲的增长对于仍在从去年的冲击中复苏的世界经济至关重要。根据周三发布的预测，美联储官员预计美国经济今年将增长7%。</blockquote> Central banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.<blockquote>俄罗斯、巴西和土耳其的央行最近几周提高了利率，部分原因是为了抑制今年大宗商品价格飙升引发的通胀。随着世界各地的工厂努力满足美国的需求，从锡到铜等大宗商品的价格飙升。</blockquote> “With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.<blockquote>伦敦牛津经济研究院经济学家塔玛拉·基础·瓦西里耶夫表示：“考虑到疫情带来的所有后果，这些国家现在最不需要的就是收紧政策。”</blockquote> A U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.<blockquote>美国经济繁荣通过增加美国进口和汇款来支持世界各地的经济。但它也推高了借贷成本和通胀，并使美元走强，从而收紧了全球金融状况，抑制了经济复苏。</blockquote> The pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.<blockquote>疼痛感觉不均匀。美元走强损害了以美元借款的新兴市场经济体，同时帮助了欧洲和东亚的大型出口商，这些出口商的产品相对于美国出口更具竞争力。</blockquote> In advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.<blockquote>在发达经济体，央行行长们大多认为，除非消费者预计通胀将持续并要求更高的工资，否则通胀上升将是暂时的。</blockquote> While central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.<blockquote>虽然央行认为这种情况不会很快发生，但一些经济学家认为他们可能会感到惊讶。</blockquote> “I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.<blockquote>法国巴黎银行首席全球经济学家路易吉·斯佩兰萨表示：“我认为这种暂时的价格冲击很可能会变得更加持久。”斯佩兰萨指出，当下一轮薪酬谈判于今年年底开始时，德国的通胀率可能在4%左右。</blockquote> Central banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.<blockquote>经济学家表示，欧洲和日本央行需要配合美联储的鸽派立场，以免本币飙升，从而破坏经济复苏。如果通胀比预期更持久，围绕美联储的微妙舞蹈可能会被打破，这可能会引发加息的连锁反应。</blockquote> “To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.<blockquote>贝莱德宏观研究主管埃尔加·巴奇(Elga Bartsch)表示：“为了防止欧元走强，[欧洲央行]需要像美联储一样采取鸽派立场，由于通胀和增长动态不同，这可能是一场斗争。”</blockquote> Emerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.<blockquote>然而，新兴市场经济体往往没有等待的奢侈。即使是短暂的通胀爆发也会对其货币造成沉重压力，并损害公司和家庭偿还通常以美元或欧元计价的债务的能力。</blockquote> The Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.<blockquote>美联储已表示，将注意避免重演2013年的“缩减恐慌”，当时发展中国家的央行被迫对外国投资的突然撤出做出反应，此前美联储表示正在考虑缩减刺激计划，令投资者感到惊讶。</blockquote> “So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示：“因此，我们对这一过程的意图是有序、有条不紊和透明。”“我可以告诉你，我们看到提前沟通我们的想法是有价值的。我们会尽量说清楚。”</blockquote> But with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.<blockquote>但随着全球通胀加速以及美联储开始改变方针，一些央行的考量正在发生变化。</blockquote> Brazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.<blockquote>巴西央行周三宣布连续第三次加息0.75个百分点，并暗示未来可能会更大幅度加息，因为它正在努力应对8%以上的通胀。</blockquote> The Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.<blockquote>俄罗斯央行今年已三次上调基准利率至5.5%，此前本月通胀率加速至6%以上，为近五年来的最高水平。周二，俄罗斯州长埃尔维拉·纳比乌林娜(Elvira Nabiullina)表示，俄罗斯将继续加息，预计这不会阻碍经济增长。</blockquote> “We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”<blockquote>纳比乌林娜在俄罗斯议会下院发表讲话时表示：“我们在相当长一段时间内一直保持低利率，以确保不会扼杀经济复苏的翅膀。”“现在是加息以应对环境变化和通胀上升的时候了。”</blockquote> Turkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.<blockquote>土耳其央行3月份将主要利率大幅提高至19%，以应对两位数的通胀和里拉贬值。但土耳其里拉最近几周再次面临压力，投资者试图评估央行是否会听从总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的降息要求。</blockquote> Recent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.<blockquote>最近新鲜农产品的价格上涨提高了所谓的罗宋汤套餐——俄罗斯深受喜爱的汤所需的蔬菜——这是许多俄罗斯人的风向标。自年初以来，土豆、卷心菜和胡萝卜的价格上涨了60%至80%。</blockquote> In poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.<blockquote>在贫穷国家，更大份额的支出通常用于食品和能源等必需品，因此当这些价格上涨时，政策制定者会更快地抑制通胀。</blockquote> Central banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.<blockquote>斯堪的纳维亚和韩国央行已暗示计划收紧货币政策，以抑制可能出现的资产泡沫，尤其是房地产泡沫。挪威央行周四暗示将在9月加息。</blockquote> Central banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.<blockquote>包括匈牙利和捷克共和国在内的中欧央行预计也将很快加息。在大流行期间，它们没有遭受与法国和西班牙等欧洲大国相同规模的收缩，但通胀正在上升。</blockquote> Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司固定收益首席投资官Iain Stealey表示，美联储可能会设法避免“缩减恐慌”重演。</blockquote> “It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.<blockquote>“这是一个非常漫长、缓慢的过程……考虑到通胀的意外上行，很难不这样做，”斯蒂利先生说。</blockquote> Still, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.<blockquote>经济学家表示，尽管如此，耐心的方法还是存在问题。</blockquote> “This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.<blockquote>法国兴业银行首席全球经济学家克劳斯·巴德尔表示：“这种让通胀升温的想法……意味着只有当你已经存在通胀问题时，你才会意识到自己存在通胀问题。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRed-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nwsj2021-06-18 17:00\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nA booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.<blockquote>尽管Covid-19感染水平仍然很高且本国经济复苏不完全，但蓬勃发展的美国经济正在推高全球通胀并推高美元，这正迫使一些央行加息。</blockquote> The world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.<blockquote>世界各国央行都在关注美联储将如何应对通胀上升，担心陷入美国经济异常扩张的逆流中。全球股市周四下跌，此前美联储官员表示，随着美国经济升温，他们预计将在2023年底前加息，早于3月份的预期。</blockquote> A global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.<blockquote>以美联储为中心的全球加息可能会扼杀一些地方的经济复苏，尤其是在新兴市场债务上升之际。</blockquote> The size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.<blockquote>美国经济规模占世界国内生产总值的近四分之一，其金融市场的重要性长期以来对全球政策制定产生了巨大的影响。但美国今年异常强劲的增长对于仍在从去年的冲击中复苏的世界经济至关重要。根据周三发布的预测，美联储官员预计美国经济今年将增长7%。</blockquote> Central banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.<blockquote>俄罗斯、巴西和土耳其的央行最近几周提高了利率，部分原因是为了抑制今年大宗商品价格飙升引发的通胀。随着世界各地的工厂努力满足美国的需求，从锡到铜等大宗商品的价格飙升。</blockquote> “With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.<blockquote>伦敦牛津经济研究院经济学家塔玛拉·基础·瓦西里耶夫表示：“考虑到疫情带来的所有后果，这些国家现在最不需要的就是收紧政策。”</blockquote> A U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.<blockquote>美国经济繁荣通过增加美国进口和汇款来支持世界各地的经济。但它也推高了借贷成本和通胀，并使美元走强，从而收紧了全球金融状况，抑制了经济复苏。</blockquote> The pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.<blockquote>疼痛感觉不均匀。美元走强损害了以美元借款的新兴市场经济体，同时帮助了欧洲和东亚的大型出口商，这些出口商的产品相对于美国出口更具竞争力。</blockquote> In advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.<blockquote>在发达经济体，央行行长们大多认为，除非消费者预计通胀将持续并要求更高的工资，否则通胀上升将是暂时的。</blockquote> While central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.<blockquote>虽然央行认为这种情况不会很快发生，但一些经济学家认为他们可能会感到惊讶。</blockquote> “I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.<blockquote>法国巴黎银行首席全球经济学家路易吉·斯佩兰萨表示：“我认为这种暂时的价格冲击很可能会变得更加持久。”斯佩兰萨指出，当下一轮薪酬谈判于今年年底开始时，德国的通胀率可能在4%左右。</blockquote> Central banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.<blockquote>经济学家表示，欧洲和日本央行需要配合美联储的鸽派立场，以免本币飙升，从而破坏经济复苏。如果通胀比预期更持久，围绕美联储的微妙舞蹈可能会被打破，这可能会引发加息的连锁反应。</blockquote> “To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.<blockquote>贝莱德宏观研究主管埃尔加·巴奇(Elga Bartsch)表示：“为了防止欧元走强，[欧洲央行]需要像美联储一样采取鸽派立场，由于通胀和增长动态不同，这可能是一场斗争。”</blockquote> Emerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.<blockquote>然而，新兴市场经济体往往没有等待的奢侈。即使是短暂的通胀爆发也会对其货币造成沉重压力，并损害公司和家庭偿还通常以美元或欧元计价的债务的能力。</blockquote> The Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.<blockquote>美联储已表示，将注意避免重演2013年的“缩减恐慌”，当时发展中国家的央行被迫对外国投资的突然撤出做出反应，此前美联储表示正在考虑缩减刺激计划，令投资者感到惊讶。</blockquote> “So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示：“因此，我们对这一过程的意图是有序、有条不紊和透明。”“我可以告诉你，我们看到提前沟通我们的想法是有价值的。我们会尽量说清楚。”</blockquote> But with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.<blockquote>但随着全球通胀加速以及美联储开始改变方针，一些央行的考量正在发生变化。</blockquote> Brazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.<blockquote>巴西央行周三宣布连续第三次加息0.75个百分点，并暗示未来可能会更大幅度加息，因为它正在努力应对8%以上的通胀。</blockquote> The Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.<blockquote>俄罗斯央行今年已三次上调基准利率至5.5%，此前本月通胀率加速至6%以上，为近五年来的最高水平。周二，俄罗斯州长埃尔维拉·纳比乌林娜(Elvira Nabiullina)表示，俄罗斯将继续加息，预计这不会阻碍经济增长。</blockquote> “We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”<blockquote>纳比乌林娜在俄罗斯议会下院发表讲话时表示：“我们在相当长一段时间内一直保持低利率，以确保不会扼杀经济复苏的翅膀。”“现在是加息以应对环境变化和通胀上升的时候了。”</blockquote> Turkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.<blockquote>土耳其央行3月份将主要利率大幅提高至19%，以应对两位数的通胀和里拉贬值。但土耳其里拉最近几周再次面临压力，投资者试图评估央行是否会听从总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的降息要求。</blockquote> Recent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.<blockquote>最近新鲜农产品的价格上涨提高了所谓的罗宋汤套餐——俄罗斯深受喜爱的汤所需的蔬菜——这是许多俄罗斯人的风向标。自年初以来，土豆、卷心菜和胡萝卜的价格上涨了60%至80%。</blockquote> In poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.<blockquote>在贫穷国家，更大份额的支出通常用于食品和能源等必需品，因此当这些价格上涨时，政策制定者会更快地抑制通胀。</blockquote> Central banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.<blockquote>斯堪的纳维亚和韩国央行已暗示计划收紧货币政策，以抑制可能出现的资产泡沫，尤其是房地产泡沫。挪威央行周四暗示将在9月加息。</blockquote> Central banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.<blockquote>包括匈牙利和捷克共和国在内的中欧央行预计也将很快加息。在大流行期间，它们没有遭受与法国和西班牙等欧洲大国相同规模的收缩，但通胀正在上升。</blockquote> Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司固定收益首席投资官Iain Stealey表示，美联储可能会设法避免“缩减恐慌”重演。</blockquote> “It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.<blockquote>“这是一个非常漫长、缓慢的过程……考虑到通胀的意外上行，很难不这样做，”斯蒂利先生说。</blockquote> Still, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.<blockquote>经济学家表示，尽管如此，耐心的方法还是存在问题。</blockquote> “This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.<blockquote>法国兴业银行首席全球经济学家克劳斯·巴德尔表示：“这种让通胀升温的想法……意味着只有当你已经存在通胀问题时，你才会意识到自己存在通胀问题。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/red-hot-u-s-economy-drives-global-inflation-forcing-foreign-banks-to-act-11623933343?mod=hp_lead_pos6\">wsj</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/red-hot-u-s-economy-drives-global-inflation-forcing-foreign-banks-to-act-11623933343?mod=hp_lead_pos6","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138044913","content_text":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.\nThe world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.\nA global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.\nThe size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.\nCentral banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.\n“With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.\nA U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.\nThe pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.\nIn advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.\nWhile central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.\n“I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.\nCentral banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.\n“To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.\nEmerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.\nThe Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.\n“So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”\nBut with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.\nBrazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.\nThe Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.\n“We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”\nTurkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.\nRecent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.\nIn poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.\nCentral banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.\nCentral banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.\nIain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”\n“It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.\nStill, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.\n“This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4867341,"gmtCreate":1624008365830,"gmtModify":1635311033328,"authorId":3579150819625638,"author":{"id":3579150819625638,"idStr":"3579150819625638","authorId":3579150819625638,"name":"gorgonzola","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c98c4db336df9bf3de0d2833d8ff0cf","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":166650037,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"hi, plse like and reply. thanks!","text":"hi, plse like and reply. thanks!","html":"hi, plse like and reply. thanks!"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":166627757,"gmtCreate":1624007441879,"gmtModify":1634024206102,"author":{"id":"3574481173820413","authorId":"3574481173820413","name":"Dyylim","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3574481173820413","idStr":"3574481173820413"},"htmlText":"Keep buying the dip!","listText":"Keep buying the dip!","text":"Keep buying the dip!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166627757","repostId":1138044913,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138044913","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624006819,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138044913?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 17:00","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138044913","media":"wsj","summary":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dolla","content":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.<blockquote>尽管Covid-19感染水平仍然很高且本国经济复苏不完全，但蓬勃发展的美国经济正在推高全球通胀并推高美元，这正迫使一些央行加息。</blockquote> The world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.<blockquote>世界各国央行都在关注美联储将如何应对通胀上升，担心陷入美国经济异常扩张的逆流中。全球股市周四下跌，此前美联储官员表示，随着美国经济升温，他们预计将在2023年底前加息，早于3月份的预期。</blockquote> A global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.<blockquote>以美联储为中心的全球加息可能会扼杀一些地方的经济复苏，尤其是在新兴市场债务上升之际。</blockquote> The size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.<blockquote>美国经济规模占世界国内生产总值的近四分之一，其金融市场的重要性长期以来对全球政策制定产生了巨大的影响。但美国今年异常强劲的增长对于仍在从去年的冲击中复苏的世界经济至关重要。根据周三发布的预测，美联储官员预计美国经济今年将增长7%。</blockquote> Central banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.<blockquote>俄罗斯、巴西和土耳其的央行最近几周提高了利率，部分原因是为了抑制今年大宗商品价格飙升引发的通胀。随着世界各地的工厂努力满足美国的需求，从锡到铜等大宗商品的价格飙升。</blockquote> “With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.<blockquote>伦敦牛津经济研究院经济学家塔玛拉·基础·瓦西里耶夫表示：“考虑到疫情带来的所有后果，这些国家现在最不需要的就是收紧政策。”</blockquote> A U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.<blockquote>美国经济繁荣通过增加美国进口和汇款来支持世界各地的经济。但它也推高了借贷成本和通胀，并使美元走强，从而收紧了全球金融状况，抑制了经济复苏。</blockquote> The pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.<blockquote>疼痛感觉不均匀。美元走强损害了以美元借款的新兴市场经济体，同时帮助了欧洲和东亚的大型出口商，这些出口商的产品相对于美国出口更具竞争力。</blockquote> In advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.<blockquote>在发达经济体，央行行长们大多认为，除非消费者预计通胀将持续并要求更高的工资，否则通胀上升将是暂时的。</blockquote> While central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.<blockquote>虽然央行认为这种情况不会很快发生，但一些经济学家认为他们可能会感到惊讶。</blockquote> “I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.<blockquote>法国巴黎银行首席全球经济学家路易吉·斯佩兰萨表示：“我认为这种暂时的价格冲击很可能会变得更加持久。”斯佩兰萨指出，当下一轮薪酬谈判于今年年底开始时，德国的通胀率可能在4%左右。</blockquote> Central banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.<blockquote>经济学家表示，欧洲和日本央行需要配合美联储的鸽派立场，以免本币飙升，从而破坏经济复苏。如果通胀比预期更持久，围绕美联储的微妙舞蹈可能会被打破，这可能会引发加息的连锁反应。</blockquote> “To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.<blockquote>贝莱德宏观研究主管埃尔加·巴奇(Elga Bartsch)表示：“为了防止欧元走强，[欧洲央行]需要像美联储一样采取鸽派立场，由于通胀和增长动态不同，这可能是一场斗争。”</blockquote> Emerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.<blockquote>然而，新兴市场经济体往往没有等待的奢侈。即使是短暂的通胀爆发也会对其货币造成沉重压力，并损害公司和家庭偿还通常以美元或欧元计价的债务的能力。</blockquote> The Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.<blockquote>美联储已表示，将注意避免重演2013年的“缩减恐慌”，当时发展中国家的央行被迫对外国投资的突然撤出做出反应，此前美联储表示正在考虑缩减刺激计划，令投资者感到惊讶。</blockquote> “So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示：“因此，我们对这一过程的意图是有序、有条不紊和透明。”“我可以告诉你，我们看到提前沟通我们的想法是有价值的。我们会尽量说清楚。”</blockquote> But with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.<blockquote>但随着全球通胀加速以及美联储开始改变方针，一些央行的考量正在发生变化。</blockquote> Brazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.<blockquote>巴西央行周三宣布连续第三次加息0.75个百分点，并暗示未来可能会更大幅度加息，因为它正在努力应对8%以上的通胀。</blockquote> The Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.<blockquote>俄罗斯央行今年已三次上调基准利率至5.5%，此前本月通胀率加速至6%以上，为近五年来的最高水平。周二，俄罗斯州长埃尔维拉·纳比乌林娜(Elvira Nabiullina)表示，俄罗斯将继续加息，预计这不会阻碍经济增长。</blockquote> “We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”<blockquote>纳比乌林娜在俄罗斯议会下院发表讲话时表示：“我们在相当长一段时间内一直保持低利率，以确保不会扼杀经济复苏的翅膀。”“现在是加息以应对环境变化和通胀上升的时候了。”</blockquote> Turkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.<blockquote>土耳其央行3月份将主要利率大幅提高至19%，以应对两位数的通胀和里拉贬值。但土耳其里拉最近几周再次面临压力，投资者试图评估央行是否会听从总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的降息要求。</blockquote> Recent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.<blockquote>最近新鲜农产品的价格上涨提高了所谓的罗宋汤套餐——俄罗斯深受喜爱的汤所需的蔬菜——这是许多俄罗斯人的风向标。自年初以来，土豆、卷心菜和胡萝卜的价格上涨了60%至80%。</blockquote> In poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.<blockquote>在贫穷国家，更大份额的支出通常用于食品和能源等必需品，因此当这些价格上涨时，政策制定者会更快地抑制通胀。</blockquote> Central banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.<blockquote>斯堪的纳维亚和韩国央行已暗示计划收紧货币政策，以抑制可能出现的资产泡沫，尤其是房地产泡沫。挪威央行周四暗示将在9月加息。</blockquote> Central banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.<blockquote>包括匈牙利和捷克共和国在内的中欧央行预计也将很快加息。在大流行期间，它们没有遭受与法国和西班牙等欧洲大国相同规模的收缩，但通胀正在上升。</blockquote> Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司固定收益首席投资官Iain Stealey表示，美联储可能会设法避免“缩减恐慌”重演。</blockquote> “It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.<blockquote>“这是一个非常漫长、缓慢的过程……考虑到通胀的意外上行，很难不这样做，”斯蒂利先生说。</blockquote> Still, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.<blockquote>经济学家表示，尽管如此，耐心的方法还是存在问题。</blockquote> “This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.<blockquote>法国兴业银行首席全球经济学家克劳斯·巴德尔表示：“这种让通胀升温的想法……意味着只有当你已经存在通胀问题时，你才会意识到自己存在通胀问题。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRed-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nwsj2021-06-18 17:00\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nA booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.<blockquote>尽管Covid-19感染水平仍然很高且本国经济复苏不完全，但蓬勃发展的美国经济正在推高全球通胀并推高美元，这正迫使一些央行加息。</blockquote> The world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.<blockquote>世界各国央行都在关注美联储将如何应对通胀上升，担心陷入美国经济异常扩张的逆流中。全球股市周四下跌，此前美联储官员表示，随着美国经济升温，他们预计将在2023年底前加息，早于3月份的预期。</blockquote> A global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.<blockquote>以美联储为中心的全球加息可能会扼杀一些地方的经济复苏，尤其是在新兴市场债务上升之际。</blockquote> The size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.<blockquote>美国经济规模占世界国内生产总值的近四分之一，其金融市场的重要性长期以来对全球政策制定产生了巨大的影响。但美国今年异常强劲的增长对于仍在从去年的冲击中复苏的世界经济至关重要。根据周三发布的预测，美联储官员预计美国经济今年将增长7%。</blockquote> Central banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.<blockquote>俄罗斯、巴西和土耳其的央行最近几周提高了利率，部分原因是为了抑制今年大宗商品价格飙升引发的通胀。随着世界各地的工厂努力满足美国的需求，从锡到铜等大宗商品的价格飙升。</blockquote> “With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.<blockquote>伦敦牛津经济研究院经济学家塔玛拉·基础·瓦西里耶夫表示：“考虑到疫情带来的所有后果，这些国家现在最不需要的就是收紧政策。”</blockquote> A U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.<blockquote>美国经济繁荣通过增加美国进口和汇款来支持世界各地的经济。但它也推高了借贷成本和通胀，并使美元走强，从而收紧了全球金融状况，抑制了经济复苏。</blockquote> The pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.<blockquote>疼痛感觉不均匀。美元走强损害了以美元借款的新兴市场经济体，同时帮助了欧洲和东亚的大型出口商，这些出口商的产品相对于美国出口更具竞争力。</blockquote> In advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.<blockquote>在发达经济体，央行行长们大多认为，除非消费者预计通胀将持续并要求更高的工资，否则通胀上升将是暂时的。</blockquote> While central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.<blockquote>虽然央行认为这种情况不会很快发生，但一些经济学家认为他们可能会感到惊讶。</blockquote> “I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.<blockquote>法国巴黎银行首席全球经济学家路易吉·斯佩兰萨表示：“我认为这种暂时的价格冲击很可能会变得更加持久。”斯佩兰萨指出，当下一轮薪酬谈判于今年年底开始时，德国的通胀率可能在4%左右。</blockquote> Central banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.<blockquote>经济学家表示，欧洲和日本央行需要配合美联储的鸽派立场，以免本币飙升，从而破坏经济复苏。如果通胀比预期更持久，围绕美联储的微妙舞蹈可能会被打破，这可能会引发加息的连锁反应。</blockquote> “To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.<blockquote>贝莱德宏观研究主管埃尔加·巴奇(Elga Bartsch)表示：“为了防止欧元走强，[欧洲央行]需要像美联储一样采取鸽派立场，由于通胀和增长动态不同，这可能是一场斗争。”</blockquote> Emerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.<blockquote>然而，新兴市场经济体往往没有等待的奢侈。即使是短暂的通胀爆发也会对其货币造成沉重压力，并损害公司和家庭偿还通常以美元或欧元计价的债务的能力。</blockquote> The Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.<blockquote>美联储已表示，将注意避免重演2013年的“缩减恐慌”，当时发展中国家的央行被迫对外国投资的突然撤出做出反应，此前美联储表示正在考虑缩减刺激计划，令投资者感到惊讶。</blockquote> “So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示：“因此，我们对这一过程的意图是有序、有条不紊和透明。”“我可以告诉你，我们看到提前沟通我们的想法是有价值的。我们会尽量说清楚。”</blockquote> But with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.<blockquote>但随着全球通胀加速以及美联储开始改变方针，一些央行的考量正在发生变化。</blockquote> Brazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.<blockquote>巴西央行周三宣布连续第三次加息0.75个百分点，并暗示未来可能会更大幅度加息，因为它正在努力应对8%以上的通胀。</blockquote> The Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.<blockquote>俄罗斯央行今年已三次上调基准利率至5.5%，此前本月通胀率加速至6%以上，为近五年来的最高水平。周二，俄罗斯州长埃尔维拉·纳比乌林娜(Elvira Nabiullina)表示，俄罗斯将继续加息，预计这不会阻碍经济增长。</blockquote> “We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”<blockquote>纳比乌林娜在俄罗斯议会下院发表讲话时表示：“我们在相当长一段时间内一直保持低利率，以确保不会扼杀经济复苏的翅膀。”“现在是加息以应对环境变化和通胀上升的时候了。”</blockquote> Turkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.<blockquote>土耳其央行3月份将主要利率大幅提高至19%，以应对两位数的通胀和里拉贬值。但土耳其里拉最近几周再次面临压力，投资者试图评估央行是否会听从总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的降息要求。</blockquote> Recent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.<blockquote>最近新鲜农产品的价格上涨提高了所谓的罗宋汤套餐——俄罗斯深受喜爱的汤所需的蔬菜——这是许多俄罗斯人的风向标。自年初以来，土豆、卷心菜和胡萝卜的价格上涨了60%至80%。</blockquote> In poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.<blockquote>在贫穷国家，更大份额的支出通常用于食品和能源等必需品，因此当这些价格上涨时，政策制定者会更快地抑制通胀。</blockquote> Central banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.<blockquote>斯堪的纳维亚和韩国央行已暗示计划收紧货币政策，以抑制可能出现的资产泡沫，尤其是房地产泡沫。挪威央行周四暗示将在9月加息。</blockquote> Central banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.<blockquote>包括匈牙利和捷克共和国在内的中欧央行预计也将很快加息。在大流行期间，它们没有遭受与法国和西班牙等欧洲大国相同规模的收缩，但通胀正在上升。</blockquote> Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司固定收益首席投资官Iain Stealey表示，美联储可能会设法避免“缩减恐慌”重演。</blockquote> “It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.<blockquote>“这是一个非常漫长、缓慢的过程……考虑到通胀的意外上行，很难不这样做，”斯蒂利先生说。</blockquote> Still, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.<blockquote>经济学家表示，尽管如此，耐心的方法还是存在问题。</blockquote> “This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.<blockquote>法国兴业银行首席全球经济学家克劳斯·巴德尔表示：“这种让通胀升温的想法……意味着只有当你已经存在通胀问题时，你才会意识到自己存在通胀问题。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/red-hot-u-s-economy-drives-global-inflation-forcing-foreign-banks-to-act-11623933343?mod=hp_lead_pos6\">wsj</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/red-hot-u-s-economy-drives-global-inflation-forcing-foreign-banks-to-act-11623933343?mod=hp_lead_pos6","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138044913","content_text":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.\nThe world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.\nA global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.\nThe size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.\nCentral banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.\n“With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.\nA U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.\nThe pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.\nIn advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.\nWhile central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.\n“I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.\nCentral banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.\n“To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.\nEmerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.\nThe Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.\n“So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”\nBut with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.\nBrazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.\nThe Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.\n“We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”\nTurkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.\nRecent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.\nIn poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.\nCentral banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.\nCentral banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.\nIain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”\n“It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.\nStill, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.\n“This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4867395,"gmtCreate":1624008584013,"gmtModify":1635311027782,"authorId":3576232257279797,"author":{"id":3576232257279797,"idStr":"3576232257279797","authorId":3576232257279797,"name":"43c0b98","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":166627757,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"I trying to reach mythic 2 lol, i now 344/400 liao","text":"I trying to reach mythic 2 lol, i now 344/400 liao","html":"I trying to reach mythic 2 lol, i now 344/400 liao"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":166624597,"gmtCreate":1624007373919,"gmtModify":1634024206566,"author":{"id":"3573634080243803","authorId":"3573634080243803","name":"EricOh3381","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f18a7d8f410af1f81018602cb16d3229","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3573634080243803","idStr":"3573634080243803"},"htmlText":"please like my comment","listText":"please like my comment","text":"please like my comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166624597","repostId":1138044913,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138044913","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624006819,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138044913?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 17:00","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138044913","media":"wsj","summary":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dolla","content":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.<blockquote>尽管Covid-19感染水平仍然很高且本国经济复苏不完全，但蓬勃发展的美国经济正在推高全球通胀并推高美元，这正迫使一些央行加息。</blockquote> The world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.<blockquote>世界各国央行都在关注美联储将如何应对通胀上升，担心陷入美国经济异常扩张的逆流中。全球股市周四下跌，此前美联储官员表示，随着美国经济升温，他们预计将在2023年底前加息，早于3月份的预期。</blockquote> A global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.<blockquote>以美联储为中心的全球加息可能会扼杀一些地方的经济复苏，尤其是在新兴市场债务上升之际。</blockquote> The size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.<blockquote>美国经济规模占世界国内生产总值的近四分之一，其金融市场的重要性长期以来对全球政策制定产生了巨大的影响。但美国今年异常强劲的增长对于仍在从去年的冲击中复苏的世界经济至关重要。根据周三发布的预测，美联储官员预计美国经济今年将增长7%。</blockquote> Central banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.<blockquote>俄罗斯、巴西和土耳其的央行最近几周提高了利率，部分原因是为了抑制今年大宗商品价格飙升引发的通胀。随着世界各地的工厂努力满足美国的需求，从锡到铜等大宗商品的价格飙升。</blockquote> “With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.<blockquote>伦敦牛津经济研究院经济学家塔玛拉·基础·瓦西里耶夫表示：“考虑到疫情带来的所有后果，这些国家现在最不需要的就是收紧政策。”</blockquote> A U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.<blockquote>美国经济繁荣通过增加美国进口和汇款来支持世界各地的经济。但它也推高了借贷成本和通胀，并使美元走强，从而收紧了全球金融状况，抑制了经济复苏。</blockquote> The pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.<blockquote>疼痛感觉不均匀。美元走强损害了以美元借款的新兴市场经济体，同时帮助了欧洲和东亚的大型出口商，这些出口商的产品相对于美国出口更具竞争力。</blockquote> In advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.<blockquote>在发达经济体，央行行长们大多认为，除非消费者预计通胀将持续并要求更高的工资，否则通胀上升将是暂时的。</blockquote> While central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.<blockquote>虽然央行认为这种情况不会很快发生，但一些经济学家认为他们可能会感到惊讶。</blockquote> “I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.<blockquote>法国巴黎银行首席全球经济学家路易吉·斯佩兰萨表示：“我认为这种暂时的价格冲击很可能会变得更加持久。”斯佩兰萨指出，当下一轮薪酬谈判于今年年底开始时，德国的通胀率可能在4%左右。</blockquote> Central banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.<blockquote>经济学家表示，欧洲和日本央行需要配合美联储的鸽派立场，以免本币飙升，从而破坏经济复苏。如果通胀比预期更持久，围绕美联储的微妙舞蹈可能会被打破，这可能会引发加息的连锁反应。</blockquote> “To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.<blockquote>贝莱德宏观研究主管埃尔加·巴奇(Elga Bartsch)表示：“为了防止欧元走强，[欧洲央行]需要像美联储一样采取鸽派立场，由于通胀和增长动态不同，这可能是一场斗争。”</blockquote> Emerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.<blockquote>然而，新兴市场经济体往往没有等待的奢侈。即使是短暂的通胀爆发也会对其货币造成沉重压力，并损害公司和家庭偿还通常以美元或欧元计价的债务的能力。</blockquote> The Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.<blockquote>美联储已表示，将注意避免重演2013年的“缩减恐慌”，当时发展中国家的央行被迫对外国投资的突然撤出做出反应，此前美联储表示正在考虑缩减刺激计划，令投资者感到惊讶。</blockquote> “So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示：“因此，我们对这一过程的意图是有序、有条不紊和透明。”“我可以告诉你，我们看到提前沟通我们的想法是有价值的。我们会尽量说清楚。”</blockquote> But with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.<blockquote>但随着全球通胀加速以及美联储开始改变方针，一些央行的考量正在发生变化。</blockquote> Brazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.<blockquote>巴西央行周三宣布连续第三次加息0.75个百分点，并暗示未来可能会更大幅度加息，因为它正在努力应对8%以上的通胀。</blockquote> The Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.<blockquote>俄罗斯央行今年已三次上调基准利率至5.5%，此前本月通胀率加速至6%以上，为近五年来的最高水平。周二，俄罗斯州长埃尔维拉·纳比乌林娜(Elvira Nabiullina)表示，俄罗斯将继续加息，预计这不会阻碍经济增长。</blockquote> “We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”<blockquote>纳比乌林娜在俄罗斯议会下院发表讲话时表示：“我们在相当长一段时间内一直保持低利率，以确保不会扼杀经济复苏的翅膀。”“现在是加息以应对环境变化和通胀上升的时候了。”</blockquote> Turkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.<blockquote>土耳其央行3月份将主要利率大幅提高至19%，以应对两位数的通胀和里拉贬值。但土耳其里拉最近几周再次面临压力，投资者试图评估央行是否会听从总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的降息要求。</blockquote> Recent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.<blockquote>最近新鲜农产品的价格上涨提高了所谓的罗宋汤套餐——俄罗斯深受喜爱的汤所需的蔬菜——这是许多俄罗斯人的风向标。自年初以来，土豆、卷心菜和胡萝卜的价格上涨了60%至80%。</blockquote> In poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.<blockquote>在贫穷国家，更大份额的支出通常用于食品和能源等必需品，因此当这些价格上涨时，政策制定者会更快地抑制通胀。</blockquote> Central banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.<blockquote>斯堪的纳维亚和韩国央行已暗示计划收紧货币政策，以抑制可能出现的资产泡沫，尤其是房地产泡沫。挪威央行周四暗示将在9月加息。</blockquote> Central banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.<blockquote>包括匈牙利和捷克共和国在内的中欧央行预计也将很快加息。在大流行期间，它们没有遭受与法国和西班牙等欧洲大国相同规模的收缩，但通胀正在上升。</blockquote> Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司固定收益首席投资官Iain Stealey表示，美联储可能会设法避免“缩减恐慌”重演。</blockquote> “It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.<blockquote>“这是一个非常漫长、缓慢的过程……考虑到通胀的意外上行，很难不这样做，”斯蒂利先生说。</blockquote> Still, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.<blockquote>经济学家表示，尽管如此，耐心的方法还是存在问题。</blockquote> “This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.<blockquote>法国兴业银行首席全球经济学家克劳斯·巴德尔表示：“这种让通胀升温的想法……意味着只有当你已经存在通胀问题时，你才会意识到自己存在通胀问题。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRed-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nwsj2021-06-18 17:00\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nA booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.<blockquote>尽管Covid-19感染水平仍然很高且本国经济复苏不完全，但蓬勃发展的美国经济正在推高全球通胀并推高美元，这正迫使一些央行加息。</blockquote> The world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.<blockquote>世界各国央行都在关注美联储将如何应对通胀上升，担心陷入美国经济异常扩张的逆流中。全球股市周四下跌，此前美联储官员表示，随着美国经济升温，他们预计将在2023年底前加息，早于3月份的预期。</blockquote> A global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.<blockquote>以美联储为中心的全球加息可能会扼杀一些地方的经济复苏，尤其是在新兴市场债务上升之际。</blockquote> The size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.<blockquote>美国经济规模占世界国内生产总值的近四分之一，其金融市场的重要性长期以来对全球政策制定产生了巨大的影响。但美国今年异常强劲的增长对于仍在从去年的冲击中复苏的世界经济至关重要。根据周三发布的预测，美联储官员预计美国经济今年将增长7%。</blockquote> Central banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.<blockquote>俄罗斯、巴西和土耳其的央行最近几周提高了利率，部分原因是为了抑制今年大宗商品价格飙升引发的通胀。随着世界各地的工厂努力满足美国的需求，从锡到铜等大宗商品的价格飙升。</blockquote> “With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.<blockquote>伦敦牛津经济研究院经济学家塔玛拉·基础·瓦西里耶夫表示：“考虑到疫情带来的所有后果，这些国家现在最不需要的就是收紧政策。”</blockquote> A U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.<blockquote>美国经济繁荣通过增加美国进口和汇款来支持世界各地的经济。但它也推高了借贷成本和通胀，并使美元走强，从而收紧了全球金融状况，抑制了经济复苏。</blockquote> The pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.<blockquote>疼痛感觉不均匀。美元走强损害了以美元借款的新兴市场经济体，同时帮助了欧洲和东亚的大型出口商，这些出口商的产品相对于美国出口更具竞争力。</blockquote> In advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.<blockquote>在发达经济体，央行行长们大多认为，除非消费者预计通胀将持续并要求更高的工资，否则通胀上升将是暂时的。</blockquote> While central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.<blockquote>虽然央行认为这种情况不会很快发生，但一些经济学家认为他们可能会感到惊讶。</blockquote> “I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.<blockquote>法国巴黎银行首席全球经济学家路易吉·斯佩兰萨表示：“我认为这种暂时的价格冲击很可能会变得更加持久。”斯佩兰萨指出，当下一轮薪酬谈判于今年年底开始时，德国的通胀率可能在4%左右。</blockquote> Central banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.<blockquote>经济学家表示，欧洲和日本央行需要配合美联储的鸽派立场，以免本币飙升，从而破坏经济复苏。如果通胀比预期更持久，围绕美联储的微妙舞蹈可能会被打破，这可能会引发加息的连锁反应。</blockquote> “To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.<blockquote>贝莱德宏观研究主管埃尔加·巴奇(Elga Bartsch)表示：“为了防止欧元走强，[欧洲央行]需要像美联储一样采取鸽派立场，由于通胀和增长动态不同，这可能是一场斗争。”</blockquote> Emerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.<blockquote>然而，新兴市场经济体往往没有等待的奢侈。即使是短暂的通胀爆发也会对其货币造成沉重压力，并损害公司和家庭偿还通常以美元或欧元计价的债务的能力。</blockquote> The Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.<blockquote>美联储已表示，将注意避免重演2013年的“缩减恐慌”，当时发展中国家的央行被迫对外国投资的突然撤出做出反应，此前美联储表示正在考虑缩减刺激计划，令投资者感到惊讶。</blockquote> “So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示：“因此，我们对这一过程的意图是有序、有条不紊和透明。”“我可以告诉你，我们看到提前沟通我们的想法是有价值的。我们会尽量说清楚。”</blockquote> But with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.<blockquote>但随着全球通胀加速以及美联储开始改变方针，一些央行的考量正在发生变化。</blockquote> Brazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.<blockquote>巴西央行周三宣布连续第三次加息0.75个百分点，并暗示未来可能会更大幅度加息，因为它正在努力应对8%以上的通胀。</blockquote> The Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.<blockquote>俄罗斯央行今年已三次上调基准利率至5.5%，此前本月通胀率加速至6%以上，为近五年来的最高水平。周二，俄罗斯州长埃尔维拉·纳比乌林娜(Elvira Nabiullina)表示，俄罗斯将继续加息，预计这不会阻碍经济增长。</blockquote> “We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”<blockquote>纳比乌林娜在俄罗斯议会下院发表讲话时表示：“我们在相当长一段时间内一直保持低利率，以确保不会扼杀经济复苏的翅膀。”“现在是加息以应对环境变化和通胀上升的时候了。”</blockquote> Turkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.<blockquote>土耳其央行3月份将主要利率大幅提高至19%，以应对两位数的通胀和里拉贬值。但土耳其里拉最近几周再次面临压力，投资者试图评估央行是否会听从总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的降息要求。</blockquote> Recent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.<blockquote>最近新鲜农产品的价格上涨提高了所谓的罗宋汤套餐——俄罗斯深受喜爱的汤所需的蔬菜——这是许多俄罗斯人的风向标。自年初以来，土豆、卷心菜和胡萝卜的价格上涨了60%至80%。</blockquote> In poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.<blockquote>在贫穷国家，更大份额的支出通常用于食品和能源等必需品，因此当这些价格上涨时，政策制定者会更快地抑制通胀。</blockquote> Central banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.<blockquote>斯堪的纳维亚和韩国央行已暗示计划收紧货币政策，以抑制可能出现的资产泡沫，尤其是房地产泡沫。挪威央行周四暗示将在9月加息。</blockquote> Central banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.<blockquote>包括匈牙利和捷克共和国在内的中欧央行预计也将很快加息。在大流行期间，它们没有遭受与法国和西班牙等欧洲大国相同规模的收缩，但通胀正在上升。</blockquote> Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司固定收益首席投资官Iain Stealey表示，美联储可能会设法避免“缩减恐慌”重演。</blockquote> “It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.<blockquote>“这是一个非常漫长、缓慢的过程……考虑到通胀的意外上行，很难不这样做，”斯蒂利先生说。</blockquote> Still, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.<blockquote>经济学家表示，尽管如此，耐心的方法还是存在问题。</blockquote> “This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.<blockquote>法国兴业银行首席全球经济学家克劳斯·巴德尔表示：“这种让通胀升温的想法……意味着只有当你已经存在通胀问题时，你才会意识到自己存在通胀问题。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/red-hot-u-s-economy-drives-global-inflation-forcing-foreign-banks-to-act-11623933343?mod=hp_lead_pos6\">wsj</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/red-hot-u-s-economy-drives-global-inflation-forcing-foreign-banks-to-act-11623933343?mod=hp_lead_pos6","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138044913","content_text":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.\nThe world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.\nA global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.\nThe size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.\nCentral banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.\n“With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.\nA U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.\nThe pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.\nIn advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.\nWhile central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.\n“I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.\nCentral banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.\n“To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.\nEmerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.\nThe Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.\n“So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”\nBut with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.\nBrazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.\nThe Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.\n“We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”\nTurkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.\nRecent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.\nIn poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.\nCentral banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.\nCentral banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.\nIain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”\n“It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.\nStill, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.\n“This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4867083,"gmtCreate":1624007412487,"gmtModify":1635311055477,"authorId":3574575782343795,"author":{"id":3574575782343795,"idStr":"3574575782343795","authorId":3574575782343795,"name":"MrSoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5bdec030dd49d0dabdf0b9138e4311a","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":166624597,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","html":"Like and comment"},{"id":4867102,"gmtCreate":1624007437258,"gmtModify":1635311053504,"authorId":3548659340886358,"author":{"id":3548659340886358,"idStr":"3548659340886358","authorId":3548659340886358,"name":"老木不朽","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b7c249f8702df4b6d4a8a6346ce6b5d","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":166624597,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Like and comment. 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Thanks ‌[爱你]"},{"id":4867111,"gmtCreate":1624007466158,"gmtModify":1635311052630,"authorId":3574481173820413,"author":{"id":3574481173820413,"idStr":"3574481173820413","authorId":3574481173820413,"name":"Dyylim","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":166624597,"type":1,"supId":4867102,"prevId":0,"content":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","html":"Like and comment"},{"id":4867342,"gmtCreate":1624008372926,"gmtModify":1635311033204,"authorId":3579150819625638,"author":{"id":3579150819625638,"idStr":"3579150819625638","authorId":3579150819625638,"name":"gorgonzola","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c98c4db336df9bf3de0d2833d8ff0cf","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":166624597,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"hi, plse like and reply. thanks!","text":"hi, plse like and reply. thanks!","html":"hi, plse like and reply. thanks!"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":166625731,"gmtCreate":1624007322023,"gmtModify":1634024207128,"author":{"id":"3581588588477029","authorId":"3581588588477029","name":"e379547","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3581588588477029","idStr":"3581588588477029"},"htmlText":"Please like and comment","listText":"Please like and comment","text":"Please like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166625731","repostId":1138044913,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138044913","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624006819,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138044913?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 17:00","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138044913","media":"wsj","summary":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dolla","content":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.<blockquote>尽管Covid-19感染水平仍然很高且本国经济复苏不完全，但蓬勃发展的美国经济正在推高全球通胀并推高美元，这正迫使一些央行加息。</blockquote> The world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.<blockquote>世界各国央行都在关注美联储将如何应对通胀上升，担心陷入美国经济异常扩张的逆流中。全球股市周四下跌，此前美联储官员表示，随着美国经济升温，他们预计将在2023年底前加息，早于3月份的预期。</blockquote> A global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.<blockquote>以美联储为中心的全球加息可能会扼杀一些地方的经济复苏，尤其是在新兴市场债务上升之际。</blockquote> The size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.<blockquote>美国经济规模占世界国内生产总值的近四分之一，其金融市场的重要性长期以来对全球政策制定产生了巨大的影响。但美国今年异常强劲的增长对于仍在从去年的冲击中复苏的世界经济至关重要。根据周三发布的预测，美联储官员预计美国经济今年将增长7%。</blockquote> Central banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.<blockquote>俄罗斯、巴西和土耳其的央行最近几周提高了利率，部分原因是为了抑制今年大宗商品价格飙升引发的通胀。随着世界各地的工厂努力满足美国的需求，从锡到铜等大宗商品的价格飙升。</blockquote> “With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.<blockquote>伦敦牛津经济研究院经济学家塔玛拉·基础·瓦西里耶夫表示：“考虑到疫情带来的所有后果，这些国家现在最不需要的就是收紧政策。”</blockquote> A U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.<blockquote>美国经济繁荣通过增加美国进口和汇款来支持世界各地的经济。但它也推高了借贷成本和通胀，并使美元走强，从而收紧了全球金融状况，抑制了经济复苏。</blockquote> The pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.<blockquote>疼痛感觉不均匀。美元走强损害了以美元借款的新兴市场经济体，同时帮助了欧洲和东亚的大型出口商，这些出口商的产品相对于美国出口更具竞争力。</blockquote> In advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.<blockquote>在发达经济体，央行行长们大多认为，除非消费者预计通胀将持续并要求更高的工资，否则通胀上升将是暂时的。</blockquote> While central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.<blockquote>虽然央行认为这种情况不会很快发生，但一些经济学家认为他们可能会感到惊讶。</blockquote> “I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.<blockquote>法国巴黎银行首席全球经济学家路易吉·斯佩兰萨表示：“我认为这种暂时的价格冲击很可能会变得更加持久。”斯佩兰萨指出，当下一轮薪酬谈判于今年年底开始时，德国的通胀率可能在4%左右。</blockquote> Central banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.<blockquote>经济学家表示，欧洲和日本央行需要配合美联储的鸽派立场，以免本币飙升，从而破坏经济复苏。如果通胀比预期更持久，围绕美联储的微妙舞蹈可能会被打破，这可能会引发加息的连锁反应。</blockquote> “To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.<blockquote>贝莱德宏观研究主管埃尔加·巴奇(Elga Bartsch)表示：“为了防止欧元走强，[欧洲央行]需要像美联储一样采取鸽派立场，由于通胀和增长动态不同，这可能是一场斗争。”</blockquote> Emerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.<blockquote>然而，新兴市场经济体往往没有等待的奢侈。即使是短暂的通胀爆发也会对其货币造成沉重压力，并损害公司和家庭偿还通常以美元或欧元计价的债务的能力。</blockquote> The Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.<blockquote>美联储已表示，将注意避免重演2013年的“缩减恐慌”，当时发展中国家的央行被迫对外国投资的突然撤出做出反应，此前美联储表示正在考虑缩减刺激计划，令投资者感到惊讶。</blockquote> “So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示：“因此，我们对这一过程的意图是有序、有条不紊和透明。”“我可以告诉你，我们看到提前沟通我们的想法是有价值的。我们会尽量说清楚。”</blockquote> But with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.<blockquote>但随着全球通胀加速以及美联储开始改变方针，一些央行的考量正在发生变化。</blockquote> Brazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.<blockquote>巴西央行周三宣布连续第三次加息0.75个百分点，并暗示未来可能会更大幅度加息，因为它正在努力应对8%以上的通胀。</blockquote> The Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.<blockquote>俄罗斯央行今年已三次上调基准利率至5.5%，此前本月通胀率加速至6%以上，为近五年来的最高水平。周二，俄罗斯州长埃尔维拉·纳比乌林娜(Elvira Nabiullina)表示，俄罗斯将继续加息，预计这不会阻碍经济增长。</blockquote> “We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”<blockquote>纳比乌林娜在俄罗斯议会下院发表讲话时表示：“我们在相当长一段时间内一直保持低利率，以确保不会扼杀经济复苏的翅膀。”“现在是加息以应对环境变化和通胀上升的时候了。”</blockquote> Turkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.<blockquote>土耳其央行3月份将主要利率大幅提高至19%，以应对两位数的通胀和里拉贬值。但土耳其里拉最近几周再次面临压力，投资者试图评估央行是否会听从总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的降息要求。</blockquote> Recent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.<blockquote>最近新鲜农产品的价格上涨提高了所谓的罗宋汤套餐——俄罗斯深受喜爱的汤所需的蔬菜——这是许多俄罗斯人的风向标。自年初以来，土豆、卷心菜和胡萝卜的价格上涨了60%至80%。</blockquote> In poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.<blockquote>在贫穷国家，更大份额的支出通常用于食品和能源等必需品，因此当这些价格上涨时，政策制定者会更快地抑制通胀。</blockquote> Central banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.<blockquote>斯堪的纳维亚和韩国央行已暗示计划收紧货币政策，以抑制可能出现的资产泡沫，尤其是房地产泡沫。挪威央行周四暗示将在9月加息。</blockquote> Central banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.<blockquote>包括匈牙利和捷克共和国在内的中欧央行预计也将很快加息。在大流行期间，它们没有遭受与法国和西班牙等欧洲大国相同规模的收缩，但通胀正在上升。</blockquote> Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司固定收益首席投资官Iain Stealey表示，美联储可能会设法避免“缩减恐慌”重演。</blockquote> “It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.<blockquote>“这是一个非常漫长、缓慢的过程……考虑到通胀的意外上行，很难不这样做，”斯蒂利先生说。</blockquote> Still, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.<blockquote>经济学家表示，尽管如此，耐心的方法还是存在问题。</blockquote> “This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.<blockquote>法国兴业银行首席全球经济学家克劳斯·巴德尔表示：“这种让通胀升温的想法……意味着只有当你已经存在通胀问题时，你才会意识到自己存在通胀问题。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRed-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nwsj2021-06-18 17:00\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nA booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.<blockquote>尽管Covid-19感染水平仍然很高且本国经济复苏不完全，但蓬勃发展的美国经济正在推高全球通胀并推高美元，这正迫使一些央行加息。</blockquote> The world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.<blockquote>世界各国央行都在关注美联储将如何应对通胀上升，担心陷入美国经济异常扩张的逆流中。全球股市周四下跌，此前美联储官员表示，随着美国经济升温，他们预计将在2023年底前加息，早于3月份的预期。</blockquote> A global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.<blockquote>以美联储为中心的全球加息可能会扼杀一些地方的经济复苏，尤其是在新兴市场债务上升之际。</blockquote> The size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.<blockquote>美国经济规模占世界国内生产总值的近四分之一，其金融市场的重要性长期以来对全球政策制定产生了巨大的影响。但美国今年异常强劲的增长对于仍在从去年的冲击中复苏的世界经济至关重要。根据周三发布的预测，美联储官员预计美国经济今年将增长7%。</blockquote> Central banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.<blockquote>俄罗斯、巴西和土耳其的央行最近几周提高了利率，部分原因是为了抑制今年大宗商品价格飙升引发的通胀。随着世界各地的工厂努力满足美国的需求，从锡到铜等大宗商品的价格飙升。</blockquote> “With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.<blockquote>伦敦牛津经济研究院经济学家塔玛拉·基础·瓦西里耶夫表示：“考虑到疫情带来的所有后果，这些国家现在最不需要的就是收紧政策。”</blockquote> A U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.<blockquote>美国经济繁荣通过增加美国进口和汇款来支持世界各地的经济。但它也推高了借贷成本和通胀，并使美元走强，从而收紧了全球金融状况，抑制了经济复苏。</blockquote> The pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.<blockquote>疼痛感觉不均匀。美元走强损害了以美元借款的新兴市场经济体，同时帮助了欧洲和东亚的大型出口商，这些出口商的产品相对于美国出口更具竞争力。</blockquote> In advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.<blockquote>在发达经济体，央行行长们大多认为，除非消费者预计通胀将持续并要求更高的工资，否则通胀上升将是暂时的。</blockquote> While central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.<blockquote>虽然央行认为这种情况不会很快发生，但一些经济学家认为他们可能会感到惊讶。</blockquote> “I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.<blockquote>法国巴黎银行首席全球经济学家路易吉·斯佩兰萨表示：“我认为这种暂时的价格冲击很可能会变得更加持久。”斯佩兰萨指出，当下一轮薪酬谈判于今年年底开始时，德国的通胀率可能在4%左右。</blockquote> Central banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.<blockquote>经济学家表示，欧洲和日本央行需要配合美联储的鸽派立场，以免本币飙升，从而破坏经济复苏。如果通胀比预期更持久，围绕美联储的微妙舞蹈可能会被打破，这可能会引发加息的连锁反应。</blockquote> “To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.<blockquote>贝莱德宏观研究主管埃尔加·巴奇(Elga Bartsch)表示：“为了防止欧元走强，[欧洲央行]需要像美联储一样采取鸽派立场，由于通胀和增长动态不同，这可能是一场斗争。”</blockquote> Emerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.<blockquote>然而，新兴市场经济体往往没有等待的奢侈。即使是短暂的通胀爆发也会对其货币造成沉重压力，并损害公司和家庭偿还通常以美元或欧元计价的债务的能力。</blockquote> The Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.<blockquote>美联储已表示，将注意避免重演2013年的“缩减恐慌”，当时发展中国家的央行被迫对外国投资的突然撤出做出反应，此前美联储表示正在考虑缩减刺激计划，令投资者感到惊讶。</blockquote> “So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示：“因此，我们对这一过程的意图是有序、有条不紊和透明。”“我可以告诉你，我们看到提前沟通我们的想法是有价值的。我们会尽量说清楚。”</blockquote> But with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.<blockquote>但随着全球通胀加速以及美联储开始改变方针，一些央行的考量正在发生变化。</blockquote> Brazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.<blockquote>巴西央行周三宣布连续第三次加息0.75个百分点，并暗示未来可能会更大幅度加息，因为它正在努力应对8%以上的通胀。</blockquote> The Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.<blockquote>俄罗斯央行今年已三次上调基准利率至5.5%，此前本月通胀率加速至6%以上，为近五年来的最高水平。周二，俄罗斯州长埃尔维拉·纳比乌林娜(Elvira Nabiullina)表示，俄罗斯将继续加息，预计这不会阻碍经济增长。</blockquote> “We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”<blockquote>纳比乌林娜在俄罗斯议会下院发表讲话时表示：“我们在相当长一段时间内一直保持低利率，以确保不会扼杀经济复苏的翅膀。”“现在是加息以应对环境变化和通胀上升的时候了。”</blockquote> Turkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.<blockquote>土耳其央行3月份将主要利率大幅提高至19%，以应对两位数的通胀和里拉贬值。但土耳其里拉最近几周再次面临压力，投资者试图评估央行是否会听从总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的降息要求。</blockquote> Recent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.<blockquote>最近新鲜农产品的价格上涨提高了所谓的罗宋汤套餐——俄罗斯深受喜爱的汤所需的蔬菜——这是许多俄罗斯人的风向标。自年初以来，土豆、卷心菜和胡萝卜的价格上涨了60%至80%。</blockquote> In poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.<blockquote>在贫穷国家，更大份额的支出通常用于食品和能源等必需品，因此当这些价格上涨时，政策制定者会更快地抑制通胀。</blockquote> Central banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.<blockquote>斯堪的纳维亚和韩国央行已暗示计划收紧货币政策，以抑制可能出现的资产泡沫，尤其是房地产泡沫。挪威央行周四暗示将在9月加息。</blockquote> Central banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.<blockquote>包括匈牙利和捷克共和国在内的中欧央行预计也将很快加息。在大流行期间，它们没有遭受与法国和西班牙等欧洲大国相同规模的收缩，但通胀正在上升。</blockquote> Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”<blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司固定收益首席投资官Iain Stealey表示，美联储可能会设法避免“缩减恐慌”重演。</blockquote> “It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.<blockquote>“这是一个非常漫长、缓慢的过程……考虑到通胀的意外上行，很难不这样做，”斯蒂利先生说。</blockquote> Still, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.<blockquote>经济学家表示，尽管如此，耐心的方法还是存在问题。</blockquote> “This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.<blockquote>法国兴业银行首席全球经济学家克劳斯·巴德尔表示：“这种让通胀升温的想法……意味着只有当你已经存在通胀问题时，你才会意识到自己存在通胀问题。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/red-hot-u-s-economy-drives-global-inflation-forcing-foreign-banks-to-act-11623933343?mod=hp_lead_pos6\">wsj</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/red-hot-u-s-economy-drives-global-inflation-forcing-foreign-banks-to-act-11623933343?mod=hp_lead_pos6","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138044913","content_text":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.\nThe world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.\nA global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.\nThe size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.\nCentral banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.\n“With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.\nA U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.\nThe pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.\nIn advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.\nWhile central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.\n“I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.\nCentral banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.\n“To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.\nEmerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.\nThe Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.\n“So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”\nBut with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.\nBrazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.\nThe Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.\n“We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”\nTurkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.\nRecent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.\nIn poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.\nCentral banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.\nCentral banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.\nIain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”\n“It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.\nStill, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.\n“This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4867042,"gmtCreate":1624007337032,"gmtModify":1635311059419,"authorId":3581588588477029,"author":{"id":3581588588477029,"idStr":"3581588588477029","authorId":3581588588477029,"name":"e379547","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":166625731,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Yes","text":"Yes","html":"Yes"},{"id":4867346,"gmtCreate":1624008380651,"gmtModify":1635311032848,"authorId":3579150819625638,"author":{"id":3579150819625638,"idStr":"3579150819625638","authorId":3579150819625638,"name":"gorgonzola","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c98c4db336df9bf3de0d2833d8ff0cf","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":166625731,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"hi, plse like and reply. thanks!","text":"hi, plse like and reply. thanks!","html":"hi, plse like and reply. thanks!"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":52,"commentSize":23,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}