How High Can Oil Really Go?_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

How High Can Oil Really Go?

Oilprice2021-02-26

Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a...

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Huat1333
·2021-03-01
EV is the main concern , right now
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SimonChan
·2021-03-01
I think won’t be too high coz of EV play coming up.
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Alvinwong
·2021-03-01
Please like and comment
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- 2a6a341c:
  ya
  2021-03-01
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旭日东升69
·2021-03-01
$100
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旭日东升69
·2021-03-01
It should reach $100 by the end of this year
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Finvest
·2021-02-28
$100 by end of year.
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43c0b98
·2021-02-26
Oil related stocks are rallying , we can at least move up another few % points next monday
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南洋铁公鸡
·2021-02-26
Why is oil rallying so hard these few days?
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AndyGohKJ
·2021-02-26
As far as it can go
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- SANTANA:
  [流泪]
  2021-02-26
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HOTBE
·2021-02-26
As high as possible
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nakazatous
·2021-02-26
Like my comment
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- 树魔:
  Oil oil oil
  2021-02-26
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- Jazling:
  Okok
  2021-02-27
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4XKEYQ
·2021-02-26
Pls like and cmt
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1
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- ZEROHERO:
  Here you go
  2021-02-26
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- Jazling:
  Ok
  2021-02-27
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WhiteField
·2021-02-26
It can go up
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guohaoer
·2021-02-26
High
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Jassss
·2021-02-26
Wow
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LEEQF
·2021-02-26
Probably not as high as before anymore.
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AntLiew
·2021-02-26
Prices hope to drop
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Nicklee
·2021-02-26
Like and comment please
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- LEEQF:
  Yes. im here to comment for u
  2021-02-26
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- Hrms:
  Nice
  2021-02-26
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- Jazling:
  Ok
  2021-02-27
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xConspire
·2021-02-26
nice
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3
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Kohct
·2021-02-26
Gogo
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Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.\nYet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.\nThen, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.\nThe package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.\nMeanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal recently wrote an analysis of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.\nIn this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and Energy Aspects all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada told Bloomberg.\nEnergy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.\n“It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.\nOf course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.\nThen there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is set to discuss a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.\nThis means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible return of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":366713519,"gmtCreate":1614562707431,"gmtModify":1703478205463,"author":{"id":"3559014783889591","authorId":"3559014783889591","name":"Huat1333","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c81eba606fe8ba066bc4881a7605ad56","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3559014783889591","authorIdStr":"3559014783889591"},"htmlText":"EV is the main concern , right now","listText":"EV is the main concern , right now","text":"EV is the main concern , right now","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366713519","repostId":1137629357,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137629357","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614310123,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137629357?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-26 11:28","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"How High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137629357","media":"Oilprice","summary":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year,","content":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.<blockquote>油价修正开始时很谨慎：一些银行认为布伦特原油今年的平均价格为每桶65美元，而其他银行则更大胆地预测，石油基准可能会攀升至每桶65美元。就在几个月前，鉴于新冠肺炎疫苗的缓慢推出、石油供应持续过剩以及冠状病毒变种在世界不同地区出现的报道，威胁着新的感染浪潮，这些预测对环境来说听起来相当乐观。</blockquote> Now, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.<blockquote>现在，银行和交易员正在谈论每桶100美元的布伦特原油。当然，造成这种情况的一个很大原因是本月早些时候德克萨斯州冻结导致美国石油产量暴跌。这甚至比去年疫情导致的产量下降还要严重，而且需要一段时间才能恢复——如果完全恢复的话。</blockquote> Yet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.<blockquote>然而，一些关键市场的需求也在稳步复苏，尤其是中国。这种复苏在很大程度上抵消了美国等其他大型消费国缓慢恢复的石油需求，并帮助推高了价格。</blockquote> Then, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.<blockquote>当然，为了应对危机，政府向世界各地的经济体注入了刺激措施。数万亿美元已投入企业和家庭，希望这将有助于尽快让GDP重回增长轨道。美国再次对石油情绪的变化至关重要：在乔·拜登总统提出1.9万亿美元的刺激计划后，油价预测迅速修正。</blockquote> The package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.<blockquote>该方案仍在辩论中，最终可能会比最初提议的规模更小。但在石油方面，它已经完成了它的工作。银行、美联储和财政部都预计，由于这种刺激措施，经济将迅速复苏，而随着人们开始更多地旅行，快速复苏将不可避免地包括石油需求的反弹。</blockquote> Meanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal&nbsp;recently wrote an&nbsp;analysis&nbsp;of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.<blockquote>与此同时，全球石油库存正在下降，尽管并非所有原因都很清楚。The华尔街日报最近写了一篇关于所谓失踪桶的分析，即不知何故被库存追踪者发现的石油桶，去年达到了创纪录的68%，占全球库存估计增幅总计13.9亿桶。在失踪桶的神秘之外，欧佩克+的减产努力卓有成效，美国页岩油生产商这一次对恢复增长模式持谨慎态度，尤其是因为油价。</blockquote> In this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and&nbsp;Energy Aspects&nbsp;all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada&nbsp;told&nbsp;Bloomberg.<blockquote>在这种背景下，本周早些时候美国银行、Socar Trading和Energy Aspects都表示布伦特原油价格可能在未来两年内升至100美元也就不足为奇了。据阿塞拜疆石油营销公司Socar Trading称，由于再平衡的基本面，价格正在上涨，到夏季，布伦特原油价格可能会达到每桶80美元。该公司首席交易官Hayal Ahmadzada告诉彭博社，由于供应仍然紧张，价格可能会进一步攀升至每桶100美元。</blockquote> Energy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.<blockquote>另一方面，能源方面阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)将经济刺激视为预期价格上涨的主要原因。</blockquote> “It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.<blockquote>“这是一个期货市场，我们总是对未来、现在将要发生的事情进行折扣。这就是价格现在上涨的原因，”森在接受彭博社监测采访时表示。“我们一直呼吁2022年油价上涨80美元。考虑到系统中的流动性，现在可能是100美元。我不排除这种可能性，”她补充道。</blockquote> Of course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.<blockquote>当然，在中国以外，需求反弹的预期尚未实现，此外还有沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和伊朗即将增加产量的问题。由于美国产量仍然低迷，这些可能不会立即影响价格。但每天增加几百万桶肯定会施加一些压力。</blockquote> Then there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is&nbsp;set to discuss&nbsp;a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.<blockquote>然后是石油输出国组织的最新消息：除了沙特阿拉伯取消3月份自愿减产100万桶/日之外，该组织还将讨论集体增产。然而，如果达成一致，增幅将不大，为50万桶/日。这与欧佩克+1月份恢复的产量相同，总体减产减少了720万桶/日，不包括沙特阿拉伯单方面的额外减产。</blockquote> This means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible&nbsp;return&nbsp;of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.<blockquote>这意味着到4月份，该组织的日产量可能会比现在多150万桶，这还不包括伊朗石油可能重返市场。这可能会干扰近期的价格预期，但到明年，新生产投资不足的影响将变得更加明显，从而刺激价格上涨。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1606109400967","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nOilprice2021-02-26 11:28\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nOil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.<blockquote>油价修正开始时很谨慎：一些银行认为布伦特原油今年的平均价格为每桶65美元，而其他银行则更大胆地预测，石油基准可能会攀升至每桶65美元。就在几个月前，鉴于新冠肺炎疫苗的缓慢推出、石油供应持续过剩以及冠状病毒变种在世界不同地区出现的报道，威胁着新的感染浪潮，这些预测对环境来说听起来相当乐观。</blockquote> Now, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.<blockquote>现在，银行和交易员正在谈论每桶100美元的布伦特原油。当然，造成这种情况的一个很大原因是本月早些时候德克萨斯州冻结导致美国石油产量暴跌。这甚至比去年疫情导致的产量下降还要严重，而且需要一段时间才能恢复——如果完全恢复的话。</blockquote> Yet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.<blockquote>然而，一些关键市场的需求也在稳步复苏，尤其是中国。这种复苏在很大程度上抵消了美国等其他大型消费国缓慢恢复的石油需求，并帮助推高了价格。</blockquote> Then, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.<blockquote>当然，为了应对危机，政府向世界各地的经济体注入了刺激措施。数万亿美元已投入企业和家庭，希望这将有助于尽快让GDP重回增长轨道。美国再次对石油情绪的变化至关重要：在乔·拜登总统提出1.9万亿美元的刺激计划后，油价预测迅速修正。</blockquote> The package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.<blockquote>该方案仍在辩论中，最终可能会比最初提议的规模更小。但在石油方面，它已经完成了它的工作。银行、美联储和财政部都预计，由于这种刺激措施，经济将迅速复苏，而随着人们开始更多地旅行，快速复苏将不可避免地包括石油需求的反弹。</blockquote> Meanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal&nbsp;recently wrote an&nbsp;analysis&nbsp;of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.<blockquote>与此同时，全球石油库存正在下降，尽管并非所有原因都很清楚。The华尔街日报最近写了一篇关于所谓失踪桶的分析，即不知何故被库存追踪者发现的石油桶，去年达到了创纪录的68%，占全球库存估计增幅总计13.9亿桶。在失踪桶的神秘之外，欧佩克+的减产努力卓有成效，美国页岩油生产商这一次对恢复增长模式持谨慎态度，尤其是因为油价。</blockquote> In this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and&nbsp;Energy Aspects&nbsp;all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada&nbsp;told&nbsp;Bloomberg.<blockquote>在这种背景下，本周早些时候美国银行、Socar Trading和Energy Aspects都表示布伦特原油价格可能在未来两年内升至100美元也就不足为奇了。据阿塞拜疆石油营销公司Socar Trading称，由于再平衡的基本面，价格正在上涨，到夏季，布伦特原油价格可能会达到每桶80美元。该公司首席交易官Hayal Ahmadzada告诉彭博社，由于供应仍然紧张，价格可能会进一步攀升至每桶100美元。</blockquote> Energy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.<blockquote>另一方面，能源方面阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)将经济刺激视为预期价格上涨的主要原因。</blockquote> “It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.<blockquote>“这是一个期货市场，我们总是对未来、现在将要发生的事情进行折扣。这就是价格现在上涨的原因，”森在接受彭博社监测采访时表示。“我们一直呼吁2022年油价上涨80美元。考虑到系统中的流动性，现在可能是100美元。我不排除这种可能性，”她补充道。</blockquote> Of course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.<blockquote>当然，在中国以外，需求反弹的预期尚未实现，此外还有沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和伊朗即将增加产量的问题。由于美国产量仍然低迷，这些可能不会立即影响价格。但每天增加几百万桶肯定会施加一些压力。</blockquote> Then there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is&nbsp;set to discuss&nbsp;a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.<blockquote>然后是石油输出国组织的最新消息：除了沙特阿拉伯取消3月份自愿减产100万桶/日之外，该组织还将讨论集体增产。然而，如果达成一致，增幅将不大，为50万桶/日。这与欧佩克+1月份恢复的产量相同，总体减产减少了720万桶/日，不包括沙特阿拉伯单方面的额外减产。</blockquote> This means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible&nbsp;return&nbsp;of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.<blockquote>这意味着到4月份，该组织的日产量可能会比现在多150万桶，这还不包括伊朗石油可能重返市场。这可能会干扰近期的价格预期，但到明年，新生产投资不足的影响将变得更加明显，从而刺激价格上涨。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-High-Can-Oil-Really-Go.html\">Oilprice</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-High-Can-Oil-Really-Go.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137629357","content_text":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.\nNow, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.\nYet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.\nThen, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.\nThe package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.\nMeanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal recently wrote an analysis of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.\nIn this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and Energy Aspects all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada told Bloomberg.\nEnergy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.\n“It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.\nOf course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.\nThen there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is set to discuss a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.\nThis means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible return of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":366732326,"gmtCreate":1614562027965,"gmtModify":1703478197848,"author":{"id":"3572212448091017","authorId":"3572212448091017","name":"SimonChan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9becd538a97d2ba19c33053c87e741cf","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572212448091017","authorIdStr":"3572212448091017"},"htmlText":"I think won’t be too high coz of&nbsp;EV play coming up.&nbsp;","listText":"I think won’t be too high coz of&nbsp;EV play coming up.&nbsp;","text":"I think won’t be too high coz of EV play coming up.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366732326","repostId":1137629357,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137629357","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614310123,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137629357?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-26 11:28","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"How High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137629357","media":"Oilprice","summary":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year,","content":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.<blockquote>油价修正开始时很谨慎：一些银行认为布伦特原油今年的平均价格为每桶65美元，而其他银行则更大胆地预测，石油基准可能会攀升至每桶65美元。就在几个月前，鉴于新冠肺炎疫苗的缓慢推出、石油供应持续过剩以及冠状病毒变种在世界不同地区出现的报道，威胁着新的感染浪潮，这些预测对环境来说听起来相当乐观。</blockquote> Now, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.<blockquote>现在，银行和交易员正在谈论每桶100美元的布伦特原油。当然，造成这种情况的一个很大原因是本月早些时候德克萨斯州冻结导致美国石油产量暴跌。这甚至比去年疫情导致的产量下降还要严重，而且需要一段时间才能恢复——如果完全恢复的话。</blockquote> Yet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.<blockquote>然而，一些关键市场的需求也在稳步复苏，尤其是中国。这种复苏在很大程度上抵消了美国等其他大型消费国缓慢恢复的石油需求，并帮助推高了价格。</blockquote> Then, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.<blockquote>当然，为了应对危机，政府向世界各地的经济体注入了刺激措施。数万亿美元已投入企业和家庭，希望这将有助于尽快让GDP重回增长轨道。美国再次对石油情绪的变化至关重要：在乔·拜登总统提出1.9万亿美元的刺激计划后，油价预测迅速修正。</blockquote> The package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.<blockquote>该方案仍在辩论中，最终可能会比最初提议的规模更小。但在石油方面，它已经完成了它的工作。银行、美联储和财政部都预计，由于这种刺激措施，经济将迅速复苏，而随着人们开始更多地旅行，快速复苏将不可避免地包括石油需求的反弹。</blockquote> Meanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal&nbsp;recently wrote an&nbsp;analysis&nbsp;of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.<blockquote>与此同时，全球石油库存正在下降，尽管并非所有原因都很清楚。The华尔街日报最近写了一篇关于所谓失踪桶的分析，即不知何故被库存追踪者发现的石油桶，去年达到了创纪录的68%，占全球库存估计增幅总计13.9亿桶。在失踪桶的神秘之外，欧佩克+的减产努力卓有成效，美国页岩油生产商这一次对恢复增长模式持谨慎态度，尤其是因为油价。</blockquote> In this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and&nbsp;Energy Aspects&nbsp;all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada&nbsp;told&nbsp;Bloomberg.<blockquote>在这种背景下，本周早些时候美国银行、Socar Trading和Energy Aspects都表示布伦特原油价格可能在未来两年内升至100美元也就不足为奇了。据阿塞拜疆石油营销公司Socar Trading称，由于再平衡的基本面，价格正在上涨，到夏季，布伦特原油价格可能会达到每桶80美元。该公司首席交易官Hayal Ahmadzada告诉彭博社，由于供应仍然紧张，价格可能会进一步攀升至每桶100美元。</blockquote> Energy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.<blockquote>另一方面，能源方面阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)将经济刺激视为预期价格上涨的主要原因。</blockquote> “It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.<blockquote>“这是一个期货市场，我们总是对未来、现在将要发生的事情进行折扣。这就是价格现在上涨的原因，”森在接受彭博社监测采访时表示。“我们一直呼吁2022年油价上涨80美元。考虑到系统中的流动性，现在可能是100美元。我不排除这种可能性，”她补充道。</blockquote> Of course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.<blockquote>当然，在中国以外，需求反弹的预期尚未实现，此外还有沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和伊朗即将增加产量的问题。由于美国产量仍然低迷，这些可能不会立即影响价格。但每天增加几百万桶肯定会施加一些压力。</blockquote> Then there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is&nbsp;set to discuss&nbsp;a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.<blockquote>然后是石油输出国组织的最新消息：除了沙特阿拉伯取消3月份自愿减产100万桶/日之外，该组织还将讨论集体增产。然而，如果达成一致，增幅将不大，为50万桶/日。这与欧佩克+1月份恢复的产量相同，总体减产减少了720万桶/日，不包括沙特阿拉伯单方面的额外减产。</blockquote> This means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible&nbsp;return&nbsp;of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.<blockquote>这意味着到4月份，该组织的日产量可能会比现在多150万桶，这还不包括伊朗石油可能重返市场。这可能会干扰近期的价格预期，但到明年，新生产投资不足的影响将变得更加明显，从而刺激价格上涨。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1606109400967","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nOilprice2021-02-26 11:28\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nOil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.<blockquote>油价修正开始时很谨慎：一些银行认为布伦特原油今年的平均价格为每桶65美元，而其他银行则更大胆地预测，石油基准可能会攀升至每桶65美元。就在几个月前，鉴于新冠肺炎疫苗的缓慢推出、石油供应持续过剩以及冠状病毒变种在世界不同地区出现的报道，威胁着新的感染浪潮，这些预测对环境来说听起来相当乐观。</blockquote> Now, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.<blockquote>现在，银行和交易员正在谈论每桶100美元的布伦特原油。当然，造成这种情况的一个很大原因是本月早些时候德克萨斯州冻结导致美国石油产量暴跌。这甚至比去年疫情导致的产量下降还要严重，而且需要一段时间才能恢复——如果完全恢复的话。</blockquote> Yet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.<blockquote>然而，一些关键市场的需求也在稳步复苏，尤其是中国。这种复苏在很大程度上抵消了美国等其他大型消费国缓慢恢复的石油需求，并帮助推高了价格。</blockquote> Then, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.<blockquote>当然，为了应对危机，政府向世界各地的经济体注入了刺激措施。数万亿美元已投入企业和家庭，希望这将有助于尽快让GDP重回增长轨道。美国再次对石油情绪的变化至关重要：在乔·拜登总统提出1.9万亿美元的刺激计划后，油价预测迅速修正。</blockquote> The package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.<blockquote>该方案仍在辩论中，最终可能会比最初提议的规模更小。但在石油方面，它已经完成了它的工作。银行、美联储和财政部都预计，由于这种刺激措施，经济将迅速复苏，而随着人们开始更多地旅行，快速复苏将不可避免地包括石油需求的反弹。</blockquote> Meanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal&nbsp;recently wrote an&nbsp;analysis&nbsp;of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.<blockquote>与此同时，全球石油库存正在下降，尽管并非所有原因都很清楚。The华尔街日报最近写了一篇关于所谓失踪桶的分析，即不知何故被库存追踪者发现的石油桶，去年达到了创纪录的68%，占全球库存估计增幅总计13.9亿桶。在失踪桶的神秘之外，欧佩克+的减产努力卓有成效，美国页岩油生产商这一次对恢复增长模式持谨慎态度，尤其是因为油价。</blockquote> In this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and&nbsp;Energy Aspects&nbsp;all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada&nbsp;told&nbsp;Bloomberg.<blockquote>在这种背景下，本周早些时候美国银行、Socar Trading和Energy Aspects都表示布伦特原油价格可能在未来两年内升至100美元也就不足为奇了。据阿塞拜疆石油营销公司Socar Trading称，由于再平衡的基本面，价格正在上涨，到夏季，布伦特原油价格可能会达到每桶80美元。该公司首席交易官Hayal Ahmadzada告诉彭博社，由于供应仍然紧张，价格可能会进一步攀升至每桶100美元。</blockquote> Energy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.<blockquote>另一方面，能源方面阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)将经济刺激视为预期价格上涨的主要原因。</blockquote> “It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.<blockquote>“这是一个期货市场，我们总是对未来、现在将要发生的事情进行折扣。这就是价格现在上涨的原因，”森在接受彭博社监测采访时表示。“我们一直呼吁2022年油价上涨80美元。考虑到系统中的流动性，现在可能是100美元。我不排除这种可能性，”她补充道。</blockquote> Of course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.<blockquote>当然，在中国以外，需求反弹的预期尚未实现，此外还有沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和伊朗即将增加产量的问题。由于美国产量仍然低迷，这些可能不会立即影响价格。但每天增加几百万桶肯定会施加一些压力。</blockquote> Then there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is&nbsp;set to discuss&nbsp;a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.<blockquote>然后是石油输出国组织的最新消息：除了沙特阿拉伯取消3月份自愿减产100万桶/日之外，该组织还将讨论集体增产。然而，如果达成一致，增幅将不大，为50万桶/日。这与欧佩克+1月份恢复的产量相同，总体减产减少了720万桶/日，不包括沙特阿拉伯单方面的额外减产。</blockquote> This means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible&nbsp;return&nbsp;of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.<blockquote>这意味着到4月份，该组织的日产量可能会比现在多150万桶，这还不包括伊朗石油可能重返市场。这可能会干扰近期的价格预期，但到明年，新生产投资不足的影响将变得更加明显，从而刺激价格上涨。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-High-Can-Oil-Really-Go.html\">Oilprice</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-High-Can-Oil-Really-Go.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137629357","content_text":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.\nNow, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.\nYet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.\nThen, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.\nThe package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.\nMeanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal recently wrote an analysis of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.\nIn this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and Energy Aspects all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada told Bloomberg.\nEnergy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.\n“It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.\nOf course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.\nThen there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is set to discuss a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.\nThis means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible return of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":366464562,"gmtCreate":1614555181356,"gmtModify":1703478100463,"author":{"id":"3566564994472271","authorId":"3566564994472271","name":"Alvinwong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3566564994472271","authorIdStr":"3566564994472271"},"htmlText":"Please like and comment","listText":"Please like and comment","text":"Please like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366464562","repostId":1137629357,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137629357","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614310123,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137629357?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-26 11:28","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"How High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137629357","media":"Oilprice","summary":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year,","content":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.<blockquote>油价修正开始时很谨慎：一些银行认为布伦特原油今年的平均价格为每桶65美元，而其他银行则更大胆地预测，石油基准可能会攀升至每桶65美元。就在几个月前，鉴于新冠肺炎疫苗的缓慢推出、石油供应持续过剩以及冠状病毒变种在世界不同地区出现的报道，威胁着新的感染浪潮，这些预测对环境来说听起来相当乐观。</blockquote> Now, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.<blockquote>现在，银行和交易员正在谈论每桶100美元的布伦特原油。当然，造成这种情况的一个很大原因是本月早些时候德克萨斯州冻结导致美国石油产量暴跌。这甚至比去年疫情导致的产量下降还要严重，而且需要一段时间才能恢复——如果完全恢复的话。</blockquote> Yet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.<blockquote>然而，一些关键市场的需求也在稳步复苏，尤其是中国。这种复苏在很大程度上抵消了美国等其他大型消费国缓慢恢复的石油需求，并帮助推高了价格。</blockquote> Then, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.<blockquote>当然，为了应对危机，政府向世界各地的经济体注入了刺激措施。数万亿美元已投入企业和家庭，希望这将有助于尽快让GDP重回增长轨道。美国再次对石油情绪的变化至关重要：在乔·拜登总统提出1.9万亿美元的刺激计划后，油价预测迅速修正。</blockquote> The package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.<blockquote>该方案仍在辩论中，最终可能会比最初提议的规模更小。但在石油方面，它已经完成了它的工作。银行、美联储和财政部都预计，由于这种刺激措施，经济将迅速复苏，而随着人们开始更多地旅行，快速复苏将不可避免地包括石油需求的反弹。</blockquote> Meanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal&nbsp;recently wrote an&nbsp;analysis&nbsp;of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.<blockquote>与此同时，全球石油库存正在下降，尽管并非所有原因都很清楚。The华尔街日报最近写了一篇关于所谓失踪桶的分析，即不知何故被库存追踪者发现的石油桶，去年达到了创纪录的68%，占全球库存估计增幅总计13.9亿桶。在失踪桶的神秘之外，欧佩克+的减产努力卓有成效，美国页岩油生产商这一次对恢复增长模式持谨慎态度，尤其是因为油价。</blockquote> In this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and&nbsp;Energy Aspects&nbsp;all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada&nbsp;told&nbsp;Bloomberg.<blockquote>在这种背景下，本周早些时候美国银行、Socar Trading和Energy Aspects都表示布伦特原油价格可能在未来两年内升至100美元也就不足为奇了。据阿塞拜疆石油营销公司Socar Trading称，由于再平衡的基本面，价格正在上涨，到夏季，布伦特原油价格可能会达到每桶80美元。该公司首席交易官Hayal Ahmadzada告诉彭博社，由于供应仍然紧张，价格可能会进一步攀升至每桶100美元。</blockquote> Energy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.<blockquote>另一方面，能源方面阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)将经济刺激视为预期价格上涨的主要原因。</blockquote> “It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.<blockquote>“这是一个期货市场，我们总是对未来、现在将要发生的事情进行折扣。这就是价格现在上涨的原因，”森在接受彭博社监测采访时表示。“我们一直呼吁2022年油价上涨80美元。考虑到系统中的流动性，现在可能是100美元。我不排除这种可能性，”她补充道。</blockquote> Of course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.<blockquote>当然，在中国以外，需求反弹的预期尚未实现，此外还有沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和伊朗即将增加产量的问题。由于美国产量仍然低迷，这些可能不会立即影响价格。但每天增加几百万桶肯定会施加一些压力。</blockquote> Then there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is&nbsp;set to discuss&nbsp;a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.<blockquote>然后是石油输出国组织的最新消息：除了沙特阿拉伯取消3月份自愿减产100万桶/日之外，该组织还将讨论集体增产。然而，如果达成一致，增幅将不大，为50万桶/日。这与欧佩克+1月份恢复的产量相同，总体减产减少了720万桶/日，不包括沙特阿拉伯单方面的额外减产。</blockquote> This means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible&nbsp;return&nbsp;of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.<blockquote>这意味着到4月份，该组织的日产量可能会比现在多150万桶，这还不包括伊朗石油可能重返市场。这可能会干扰近期的价格预期，但到明年，新生产投资不足的影响将变得更加明显，从而刺激价格上涨。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1606109400967","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nOilprice2021-02-26 11:28\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nOil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.<blockquote>油价修正开始时很谨慎：一些银行认为布伦特原油今年的平均价格为每桶65美元，而其他银行则更大胆地预测，石油基准可能会攀升至每桶65美元。就在几个月前，鉴于新冠肺炎疫苗的缓慢推出、石油供应持续过剩以及冠状病毒变种在世界不同地区出现的报道，威胁着新的感染浪潮，这些预测对环境来说听起来相当乐观。</blockquote> Now, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.<blockquote>现在，银行和交易员正在谈论每桶100美元的布伦特原油。当然，造成这种情况的一个很大原因是本月早些时候德克萨斯州冻结导致美国石油产量暴跌。这甚至比去年疫情导致的产量下降还要严重，而且需要一段时间才能恢复——如果完全恢复的话。</blockquote> Yet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.<blockquote>然而，一些关键市场的需求也在稳步复苏，尤其是中国。这种复苏在很大程度上抵消了美国等其他大型消费国缓慢恢复的石油需求，并帮助推高了价格。</blockquote> Then, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.<blockquote>当然，为了应对危机，政府向世界各地的经济体注入了刺激措施。数万亿美元已投入企业和家庭，希望这将有助于尽快让GDP重回增长轨道。美国再次对石油情绪的变化至关重要：在乔·拜登总统提出1.9万亿美元的刺激计划后，油价预测迅速修正。</blockquote> The package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.<blockquote>该方案仍在辩论中，最终可能会比最初提议的规模更小。但在石油方面，它已经完成了它的工作。银行、美联储和财政部都预计，由于这种刺激措施，经济将迅速复苏，而随着人们开始更多地旅行，快速复苏将不可避免地包括石油需求的反弹。</blockquote> Meanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal&nbsp;recently wrote an&nbsp;analysis&nbsp;of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.<blockquote>与此同时，全球石油库存正在下降，尽管并非所有原因都很清楚。The华尔街日报最近写了一篇关于所谓失踪桶的分析，即不知何故被库存追踪者发现的石油桶，去年达到了创纪录的68%，占全球库存估计增幅总计13.9亿桶。在失踪桶的神秘之外，欧佩克+的减产努力卓有成效，美国页岩油生产商这一次对恢复增长模式持谨慎态度，尤其是因为油价。</blockquote> In this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and&nbsp;Energy Aspects&nbsp;all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada&nbsp;told&nbsp;Bloomberg.<blockquote>在这种背景下，本周早些时候美国银行、Socar Trading和Energy Aspects都表示布伦特原油价格可能在未来两年内升至100美元也就不足为奇了。据阿塞拜疆石油营销公司Socar Trading称，由于再平衡的基本面，价格正在上涨，到夏季，布伦特原油价格可能会达到每桶80美元。该公司首席交易官Hayal Ahmadzada告诉彭博社，由于供应仍然紧张，价格可能会进一步攀升至每桶100美元。</blockquote> Energy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.<blockquote>另一方面，能源方面阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)将经济刺激视为预期价格上涨的主要原因。</blockquote> “It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.<blockquote>“这是一个期货市场，我们总是对未来、现在将要发生的事情进行折扣。这就是价格现在上涨的原因，”森在接受彭博社监测采访时表示。“我们一直呼吁2022年油价上涨80美元。考虑到系统中的流动性，现在可能是100美元。我不排除这种可能性，”她补充道。</blockquote> Of course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.<blockquote>当然，在中国以外，需求反弹的预期尚未实现，此外还有沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和伊朗即将增加产量的问题。由于美国产量仍然低迷，这些可能不会立即影响价格。但每天增加几百万桶肯定会施加一些压力。</blockquote> Then there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is&nbsp;set to discuss&nbsp;a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.<blockquote>然后是石油输出国组织的最新消息：除了沙特阿拉伯取消3月份自愿减产100万桶/日之外，该组织还将讨论集体增产。然而，如果达成一致，增幅将不大，为50万桶/日。这与欧佩克+1月份恢复的产量相同，总体减产减少了720万桶/日，不包括沙特阿拉伯单方面的额外减产。</blockquote> This means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible&nbsp;return&nbsp;of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.<blockquote>这意味着到4月份，该组织的日产量可能会比现在多150万桶，这还不包括伊朗石油可能重返市场。这可能会干扰近期的价格预期，但到明年，新生产投资不足的影响将变得更加明显，从而刺激价格上涨。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-High-Can-Oil-Really-Go.html\">Oilprice</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-High-Can-Oil-Really-Go.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137629357","content_text":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.\nNow, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.\nYet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.\nThen, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.\nThe package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.\nMeanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal recently wrote an analysis of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.\nIn this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and Energy Aspects all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada told Bloomberg.\nEnergy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.\n“It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.\nOf course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.\nThen there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is set to discuss a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.\nThis means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible return of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3684502,"gmtCreate":1614555685554,"gmtModify":1635760163908,"authorId":3574923462420975,"author":{"id":3574923462420975,"idStr":"3574923462420975","authorId":3574923462420975,"name":"2a6a341c","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":366464562,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ya","text":"ya","html":"ya"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":366417327,"gmtCreate":1614551854269,"gmtModify":1703478076115,"author":{"id":"3573894403871485","authorId":"3573894403871485","name":"旭日东升69","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b209c972ebeaea04a3195b929dba7bd8","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3573894403871485","authorIdStr":"3573894403871485"},"htmlText":"$100","listText":"$100","text":"$100","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366417327","repostId":1137629357,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137629357","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614310123,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137629357?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-26 11:28","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"How High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137629357","media":"Oilprice","summary":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year,","content":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.<blockquote>油价修正开始时很谨慎：一些银行认为布伦特原油今年的平均价格为每桶65美元，而其他银行则更大胆地预测，石油基准可能会攀升至每桶65美元。就在几个月前，鉴于新冠肺炎疫苗的缓慢推出、石油供应持续过剩以及冠状病毒变种在世界不同地区出现的报道，威胁着新的感染浪潮，这些预测对环境来说听起来相当乐观。</blockquote> Now, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.<blockquote>现在，银行和交易员正在谈论每桶100美元的布伦特原油。当然，造成这种情况的一个很大原因是本月早些时候德克萨斯州冻结导致美国石油产量暴跌。这甚至比去年疫情导致的产量下降还要严重，而且需要一段时间才能恢复——如果完全恢复的话。</blockquote> Yet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.<blockquote>然而，一些关键市场的需求也在稳步复苏，尤其是中国。这种复苏在很大程度上抵消了美国等其他大型消费国缓慢恢复的石油需求，并帮助推高了价格。</blockquote> Then, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.<blockquote>当然，为了应对危机，政府向世界各地的经济体注入了刺激措施。数万亿美元已投入企业和家庭，希望这将有助于尽快让GDP重回增长轨道。美国再次对石油情绪的变化至关重要：在乔·拜登总统提出1.9万亿美元的刺激计划后，油价预测迅速修正。</blockquote> The package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.<blockquote>该方案仍在辩论中，最终可能会比最初提议的规模更小。但在石油方面，它已经完成了它的工作。银行、美联储和财政部都预计，由于这种刺激措施，经济将迅速复苏，而随着人们开始更多地旅行，快速复苏将不可避免地包括石油需求的反弹。</blockquote> Meanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal&nbsp;recently wrote an&nbsp;analysis&nbsp;of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.<blockquote>与此同时，全球石油库存正在下降，尽管并非所有原因都很清楚。The华尔街日报最近写了一篇关于所谓失踪桶的分析，即不知何故被库存追踪者发现的石油桶，去年达到了创纪录的68%，占全球库存估计增幅总计13.9亿桶。在失踪桶的神秘之外，欧佩克+的减产努力卓有成效，美国页岩油生产商这一次对恢复增长模式持谨慎态度，尤其是因为油价。</blockquote> In this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and&nbsp;Energy Aspects&nbsp;all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada&nbsp;told&nbsp;Bloomberg.<blockquote>在这种背景下，本周早些时候美国银行、Socar Trading和Energy Aspects都表示布伦特原油价格可能在未来两年内升至100美元也就不足为奇了。据阿塞拜疆石油营销公司Socar Trading称，由于再平衡的基本面，价格正在上涨，到夏季，布伦特原油价格可能会达到每桶80美元。该公司首席交易官Hayal Ahmadzada告诉彭博社，由于供应仍然紧张，价格可能会进一步攀升至每桶100美元。</blockquote> Energy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.<blockquote>另一方面，能源方面阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)将经济刺激视为预期价格上涨的主要原因。</blockquote> “It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.<blockquote>“这是一个期货市场，我们总是对未来、现在将要发生的事情进行折扣。这就是价格现在上涨的原因，”森在接受彭博社监测采访时表示。“我们一直呼吁2022年油价上涨80美元。考虑到系统中的流动性，现在可能是100美元。我不排除这种可能性，”她补充道。</blockquote> Of course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.<blockquote>当然，在中国以外，需求反弹的预期尚未实现，此外还有沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和伊朗即将增加产量的问题。由于美国产量仍然低迷，这些可能不会立即影响价格。但每天增加几百万桶肯定会施加一些压力。</blockquote> Then there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is&nbsp;set to discuss&nbsp;a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.<blockquote>然后是石油输出国组织的最新消息：除了沙特阿拉伯取消3月份自愿减产100万桶/日之外，该组织还将讨论集体增产。然而，如果达成一致，增幅将不大，为50万桶/日。这与欧佩克+1月份恢复的产量相同，总体减产减少了720万桶/日，不包括沙特阿拉伯单方面的额外减产。</blockquote> This means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible&nbsp;return&nbsp;of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.<blockquote>这意味着到4月份，该组织的日产量可能会比现在多150万桶，这还不包括伊朗石油可能重返市场。这可能会干扰近期的价格预期，但到明年，新生产投资不足的影响将变得更加明显，从而刺激价格上涨。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1606109400967","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nOilprice2021-02-26 11:28\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nOil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.<blockquote>油价修正开始时很谨慎：一些银行认为布伦特原油今年的平均价格为每桶65美元，而其他银行则更大胆地预测，石油基准可能会攀升至每桶65美元。就在几个月前，鉴于新冠肺炎疫苗的缓慢推出、石油供应持续过剩以及冠状病毒变种在世界不同地区出现的报道，威胁着新的感染浪潮，这些预测对环境来说听起来相当乐观。</blockquote> Now, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.<blockquote>现在，银行和交易员正在谈论每桶100美元的布伦特原油。当然，造成这种情况的一个很大原因是本月早些时候德克萨斯州冻结导致美国石油产量暴跌。这甚至比去年疫情导致的产量下降还要严重，而且需要一段时间才能恢复——如果完全恢复的话。</blockquote> Yet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.<blockquote>然而，一些关键市场的需求也在稳步复苏，尤其是中国。这种复苏在很大程度上抵消了美国等其他大型消费国缓慢恢复的石油需求，并帮助推高了价格。</blockquote> Then, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.<blockquote>当然，为了应对危机，政府向世界各地的经济体注入了刺激措施。数万亿美元已投入企业和家庭，希望这将有助于尽快让GDP重回增长轨道。美国再次对石油情绪的变化至关重要：在乔·拜登总统提出1.9万亿美元的刺激计划后，油价预测迅速修正。</blockquote> The package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.<blockquote>该方案仍在辩论中，最终可能会比最初提议的规模更小。但在石油方面，它已经完成了它的工作。银行、美联储和财政部都预计，由于这种刺激措施，经济将迅速复苏，而随着人们开始更多地旅行，快速复苏将不可避免地包括石油需求的反弹。</blockquote> Meanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal&nbsp;recently wrote an&nbsp;analysis&nbsp;of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.<blockquote>与此同时，全球石油库存正在下降，尽管并非所有原因都很清楚。The华尔街日报最近写了一篇关于所谓失踪桶的分析，即不知何故被库存追踪者发现的石油桶，去年达到了创纪录的68%，占全球库存估计增幅总计13.9亿桶。在失踪桶的神秘之外，欧佩克+的减产努力卓有成效，美国页岩油生产商这一次对恢复增长模式持谨慎态度，尤其是因为油价。</blockquote> In this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and&nbsp;Energy Aspects&nbsp;all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada&nbsp;told&nbsp;Bloomberg.<blockquote>在这种背景下，本周早些时候美国银行、Socar Trading和Energy Aspects都表示布伦特原油价格可能在未来两年内升至100美元也就不足为奇了。据阿塞拜疆石油营销公司Socar Trading称，由于再平衡的基本面，价格正在上涨，到夏季，布伦特原油价格可能会达到每桶80美元。该公司首席交易官Hayal Ahmadzada告诉彭博社，由于供应仍然紧张，价格可能会进一步攀升至每桶100美元。</blockquote> Energy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.<blockquote>另一方面，能源方面阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)将经济刺激视为预期价格上涨的主要原因。</blockquote> “It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.<blockquote>“这是一个期货市场，我们总是对未来、现在将要发生的事情进行折扣。这就是价格现在上涨的原因，”森在接受彭博社监测采访时表示。“我们一直呼吁2022年油价上涨80美元。考虑到系统中的流动性，现在可能是100美元。我不排除这种可能性，”她补充道。</blockquote> Of course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.<blockquote>当然，在中国以外，需求反弹的预期尚未实现，此外还有沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和伊朗即将增加产量的问题。由于美国产量仍然低迷，这些可能不会立即影响价格。但每天增加几百万桶肯定会施加一些压力。</blockquote> Then there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is&nbsp;set to discuss&nbsp;a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.<blockquote>然后是石油输出国组织的最新消息：除了沙特阿拉伯取消3月份自愿减产100万桶/日之外，该组织还将讨论集体增产。然而，如果达成一致，增幅将不大，为50万桶/日。这与欧佩克+1月份恢复的产量相同，总体减产减少了720万桶/日，不包括沙特阿拉伯单方面的额外减产。</blockquote> This means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible&nbsp;return&nbsp;of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.<blockquote>这意味着到4月份，该组织的日产量可能会比现在多150万桶，这还不包括伊朗石油可能重返市场。这可能会干扰近期的价格预期，但到明年，新生产投资不足的影响将变得更加明显，从而刺激价格上涨。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-High-Can-Oil-Really-Go.html\">Oilprice</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-High-Can-Oil-Really-Go.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137629357","content_text":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.\nNow, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.\nYet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.\nThen, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.\nThe package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.\nMeanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal recently wrote an analysis of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.\nIn this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and Energy Aspects all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada told Bloomberg.\nEnergy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.\n“It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.\nOf course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.\nThen there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is set to discuss a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.\nThis means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible return of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":366414814,"gmtCreate":1614551715038,"gmtModify":1703478074930,"author":{"id":"3573894403871485","authorId":"3573894403871485","name":"旭日东升69","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b209c972ebeaea04a3195b929dba7bd8","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3573894403871485","authorIdStr":"3573894403871485"},"htmlText":"It should reach $100 by the end of this year","listText":"It should reach $100 by the end of this year","text":"It should reach $100 by the end of this year","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366414814","repostId":1137629357,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137629357","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614310123,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137629357?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-26 11:28","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"How High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137629357","media":"Oilprice","summary":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year,","content":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.<blockquote>油价修正开始时很谨慎：一些银行认为布伦特原油今年的平均价格为每桶65美元，而其他银行则更大胆地预测，石油基准可能会攀升至每桶65美元。就在几个月前，鉴于新冠肺炎疫苗的缓慢推出、石油供应持续过剩以及冠状病毒变种在世界不同地区出现的报道，威胁着新的感染浪潮，这些预测对环境来说听起来相当乐观。</blockquote> Now, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.<blockquote>现在，银行和交易员正在谈论每桶100美元的布伦特原油。当然，造成这种情况的一个很大原因是本月早些时候德克萨斯州冻结导致美国石油产量暴跌。这甚至比去年疫情导致的产量下降还要严重，而且需要一段时间才能恢复——如果完全恢复的话。</blockquote> Yet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.<blockquote>然而，一些关键市场的需求也在稳步复苏，尤其是中国。这种复苏在很大程度上抵消了美国等其他大型消费国缓慢恢复的石油需求，并帮助推高了价格。</blockquote> Then, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.<blockquote>当然，为了应对危机，政府向世界各地的经济体注入了刺激措施。数万亿美元已投入企业和家庭，希望这将有助于尽快让GDP重回增长轨道。美国再次对石油情绪的变化至关重要：在乔·拜登总统提出1.9万亿美元的刺激计划后，油价预测迅速修正。</blockquote> The package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.<blockquote>该方案仍在辩论中，最终可能会比最初提议的规模更小。但在石油方面，它已经完成了它的工作。银行、美联储和财政部都预计，由于这种刺激措施，经济将迅速复苏，而随着人们开始更多地旅行，快速复苏将不可避免地包括石油需求的反弹。</blockquote> Meanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal&nbsp;recently wrote an&nbsp;analysis&nbsp;of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.<blockquote>与此同时，全球石油库存正在下降，尽管并非所有原因都很清楚。The华尔街日报最近写了一篇关于所谓失踪桶的分析，即不知何故被库存追踪者发现的石油桶，去年达到了创纪录的68%，占全球库存估计增幅总计13.9亿桶。在失踪桶的神秘之外，欧佩克+的减产努力卓有成效，美国页岩油生产商这一次对恢复增长模式持谨慎态度，尤其是因为油价。</blockquote> In this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and&nbsp;Energy Aspects&nbsp;all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada&nbsp;told&nbsp;Bloomberg.<blockquote>在这种背景下，本周早些时候美国银行、Socar Trading和Energy Aspects都表示布伦特原油价格可能在未来两年内升至100美元也就不足为奇了。据阿塞拜疆石油营销公司Socar Trading称，由于再平衡的基本面，价格正在上涨，到夏季，布伦特原油价格可能会达到每桶80美元。该公司首席交易官Hayal Ahmadzada告诉彭博社，由于供应仍然紧张，价格可能会进一步攀升至每桶100美元。</blockquote> Energy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.<blockquote>另一方面，能源方面阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)将经济刺激视为预期价格上涨的主要原因。</blockquote> “It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.<blockquote>“这是一个期货市场，我们总是对未来、现在将要发生的事情进行折扣。这就是价格现在上涨的原因，”森在接受彭博社监测采访时表示。“我们一直呼吁2022年油价上涨80美元。考虑到系统中的流动性，现在可能是100美元。我不排除这种可能性，”她补充道。</blockquote> Of course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.<blockquote>当然，在中国以外，需求反弹的预期尚未实现，此外还有沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和伊朗即将增加产量的问题。由于美国产量仍然低迷，这些可能不会立即影响价格。但每天增加几百万桶肯定会施加一些压力。</blockquote> Then there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is&nbsp;set to discuss&nbsp;a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.<blockquote>然后是石油输出国组织的最新消息：除了沙特阿拉伯取消3月份自愿减产100万桶/日之外，该组织还将讨论集体增产。然而，如果达成一致，增幅将不大，为50万桶/日。这与欧佩克+1月份恢复的产量相同，总体减产减少了720万桶/日，不包括沙特阿拉伯单方面的额外减产。</blockquote> This means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible&nbsp;return&nbsp;of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.<blockquote>这意味着到4月份，该组织的日产量可能会比现在多150万桶，这还不包括伊朗石油可能重返市场。这可能会干扰近期的价格预期，但到明年，新生产投资不足的影响将变得更加明显，从而刺激价格上涨。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1606109400967","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nOilprice2021-02-26 11:28\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nOil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.<blockquote>油价修正开始时很谨慎：一些银行认为布伦特原油今年的平均价格为每桶65美元，而其他银行则更大胆地预测，石油基准可能会攀升至每桶65美元。就在几个月前，鉴于新冠肺炎疫苗的缓慢推出、石油供应持续过剩以及冠状病毒变种在世界不同地区出现的报道，威胁着新的感染浪潮，这些预测对环境来说听起来相当乐观。</blockquote> Now, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.<blockquote>现在，银行和交易员正在谈论每桶100美元的布伦特原油。当然，造成这种情况的一个很大原因是本月早些时候德克萨斯州冻结导致美国石油产量暴跌。这甚至比去年疫情导致的产量下降还要严重，而且需要一段时间才能恢复——如果完全恢复的话。</blockquote> Yet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.<blockquote>然而，一些关键市场的需求也在稳步复苏，尤其是中国。这种复苏在很大程度上抵消了美国等其他大型消费国缓慢恢复的石油需求，并帮助推高了价格。</blockquote> Then, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.<blockquote>当然，为了应对危机，政府向世界各地的经济体注入了刺激措施。数万亿美元已投入企业和家庭，希望这将有助于尽快让GDP重回增长轨道。美国再次对石油情绪的变化至关重要：在乔·拜登总统提出1.9万亿美元的刺激计划后，油价预测迅速修正。</blockquote> The package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.<blockquote>该方案仍在辩论中，最终可能会比最初提议的规模更小。但在石油方面，它已经完成了它的工作。银行、美联储和财政部都预计，由于这种刺激措施，经济将迅速复苏，而随着人们开始更多地旅行，快速复苏将不可避免地包括石油需求的反弹。</blockquote> Meanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal&nbsp;recently wrote an&nbsp;analysis&nbsp;of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.<blockquote>与此同时，全球石油库存正在下降，尽管并非所有原因都很清楚。The华尔街日报最近写了一篇关于所谓失踪桶的分析，即不知何故被库存追踪者发现的石油桶，去年达到了创纪录的68%，占全球库存估计增幅总计13.9亿桶。在失踪桶的神秘之外，欧佩克+的减产努力卓有成效，美国页岩油生产商这一次对恢复增长模式持谨慎态度，尤其是因为油价。</blockquote> In this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and&nbsp;Energy Aspects&nbsp;all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada&nbsp;told&nbsp;Bloomberg.<blockquote>在这种背景下，本周早些时候美国银行、Socar Trading和Energy Aspects都表示布伦特原油价格可能在未来两年内升至100美元也就不足为奇了。据阿塞拜疆石油营销公司Socar Trading称，由于再平衡的基本面，价格正在上涨，到夏季，布伦特原油价格可能会达到每桶80美元。该公司首席交易官Hayal Ahmadzada告诉彭博社，由于供应仍然紧张，价格可能会进一步攀升至每桶100美元。</blockquote> Energy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.<blockquote>另一方面，能源方面阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)将经济刺激视为预期价格上涨的主要原因。</blockquote> “It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.<blockquote>“这是一个期货市场，我们总是对未来、现在将要发生的事情进行折扣。这就是价格现在上涨的原因，”森在接受彭博社监测采访时表示。“我们一直呼吁2022年油价上涨80美元。考虑到系统中的流动性，现在可能是100美元。我不排除这种可能性，”她补充道。</blockquote> Of course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.<blockquote>当然，在中国以外，需求反弹的预期尚未实现，此外还有沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和伊朗即将增加产量的问题。由于美国产量仍然低迷，这些可能不会立即影响价格。但每天增加几百万桶肯定会施加一些压力。</blockquote> Then there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is&nbsp;set to discuss&nbsp;a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.<blockquote>然后是石油输出国组织的最新消息：除了沙特阿拉伯取消3月份自愿减产100万桶/日之外，该组织还将讨论集体增产。然而，如果达成一致，增幅将不大，为50万桶/日。这与欧佩克+1月份恢复的产量相同，总体减产减少了720万桶/日，不包括沙特阿拉伯单方面的额外减产。</blockquote> This means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible&nbsp;return&nbsp;of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.<blockquote>这意味着到4月份，该组织的日产量可能会比现在多150万桶，这还不包括伊朗石油可能重返市场。这可能会干扰近期的价格预期，但到明年，新生产投资不足的影响将变得更加明显，从而刺激价格上涨。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-High-Can-Oil-Really-Go.html\">Oilprice</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-High-Can-Oil-Really-Go.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137629357","content_text":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.\nNow, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.\nYet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.\nThen, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.\nThe package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.\nMeanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal recently wrote an analysis of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.\nIn this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and Energy Aspects all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada told Bloomberg.\nEnergy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.\n“It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.\nOf course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.\nThen there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is set to discuss a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.\nThis means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible return of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":366649687,"gmtCreate":1614479113449,"gmtModify":1703477724454,"author":{"id":"3566654636387294","authorId":"3566654636387294","name":"Finvest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e215830b0cd46a3c97d67f6c243b0","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3566654636387294","authorIdStr":"3566654636387294"},"htmlText":"$100 by end of year.","listText":"$100 by end of year.","text":"$100 by end of year.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366649687","repostId":1137629357,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137629357","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614310123,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137629357?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-26 11:28","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"How High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137629357","media":"Oilprice","summary":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year,","content":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.<blockquote>油价修正开始时很谨慎：一些银行认为布伦特原油今年的平均价格为每桶65美元，而其他银行则更大胆地预测，石油基准可能会攀升至每桶65美元。就在几个月前，鉴于新冠肺炎疫苗的缓慢推出、石油供应持续过剩以及冠状病毒变种在世界不同地区出现的报道，威胁着新的感染浪潮，这些预测对环境来说听起来相当乐观。</blockquote> Now, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.<blockquote>现在，银行和交易员正在谈论每桶100美元的布伦特原油。当然，造成这种情况的一个很大原因是本月早些时候德克萨斯州冻结导致美国石油产量暴跌。这甚至比去年疫情导致的产量下降还要严重，而且需要一段时间才能恢复——如果完全恢复的话。</blockquote> Yet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.<blockquote>然而，一些关键市场的需求也在稳步复苏，尤其是中国。这种复苏在很大程度上抵消了美国等其他大型消费国缓慢恢复的石油需求，并帮助推高了价格。</blockquote> Then, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.<blockquote>当然，为了应对危机，政府向世界各地的经济体注入了刺激措施。数万亿美元已投入企业和家庭，希望这将有助于尽快让GDP重回增长轨道。美国再次对石油情绪的变化至关重要：在乔·拜登总统提出1.9万亿美元的刺激计划后，油价预测迅速修正。</blockquote> The package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.<blockquote>该方案仍在辩论中，最终可能会比最初提议的规模更小。但在石油方面，它已经完成了它的工作。银行、美联储和财政部都预计，由于这种刺激措施，经济将迅速复苏，而随着人们开始更多地旅行，快速复苏将不可避免地包括石油需求的反弹。</blockquote> Meanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal&nbsp;recently wrote an&nbsp;analysis&nbsp;of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.<blockquote>与此同时，全球石油库存正在下降，尽管并非所有原因都很清楚。The华尔街日报最近写了一篇关于所谓失踪桶的分析，即不知何故被库存追踪者发现的石油桶，去年达到了创纪录的68%，占全球库存估计增幅总计13.9亿桶。在失踪桶的神秘之外，欧佩克+的减产努力卓有成效，美国页岩油生产商这一次对恢复增长模式持谨慎态度，尤其是因为油价。</blockquote> In this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and&nbsp;Energy Aspects&nbsp;all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada&nbsp;told&nbsp;Bloomberg.<blockquote>在这种背景下，本周早些时候美国银行、Socar Trading和Energy Aspects都表示布伦特原油价格可能在未来两年内升至100美元也就不足为奇了。据阿塞拜疆石油营销公司Socar Trading称，由于再平衡的基本面，价格正在上涨，到夏季，布伦特原油价格可能会达到每桶80美元。该公司首席交易官Hayal Ahmadzada告诉彭博社，由于供应仍然紧张，价格可能会进一步攀升至每桶100美元。</blockquote> Energy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.<blockquote>另一方面，能源方面阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)将经济刺激视为预期价格上涨的主要原因。</blockquote> “It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.<blockquote>“这是一个期货市场，我们总是对未来、现在将要发生的事情进行折扣。这就是价格现在上涨的原因，”森在接受彭博社监测采访时表示。“我们一直呼吁2022年油价上涨80美元。考虑到系统中的流动性，现在可能是100美元。我不排除这种可能性，”她补充道。</blockquote> Of course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.<blockquote>当然，在中国以外，需求反弹的预期尚未实现，此外还有沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和伊朗即将增加产量的问题。由于美国产量仍然低迷，这些可能不会立即影响价格。但每天增加几百万桶肯定会施加一些压力。</blockquote> Then there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is&nbsp;set to discuss&nbsp;a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.<blockquote>然后是石油输出国组织的最新消息：除了沙特阿拉伯取消3月份自愿减产100万桶/日之外，该组织还将讨论集体增产。然而，如果达成一致，增幅将不大，为50万桶/日。这与欧佩克+1月份恢复的产量相同，总体减产减少了720万桶/日，不包括沙特阿拉伯单方面的额外减产。</blockquote> This means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible&nbsp;return&nbsp;of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.<blockquote>这意味着到4月份，该组织的日产量可能会比现在多150万桶，这还不包括伊朗石油可能重返市场。这可能会干扰近期的价格预期，但到明年，新生产投资不足的影响将变得更加明显，从而刺激价格上涨。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1606109400967","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nOilprice2021-02-26 11:28\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nOil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.<blockquote>油价修正开始时很谨慎：一些银行认为布伦特原油今年的平均价格为每桶65美元，而其他银行则更大胆地预测，石油基准可能会攀升至每桶65美元。就在几个月前，鉴于新冠肺炎疫苗的缓慢推出、石油供应持续过剩以及冠状病毒变种在世界不同地区出现的报道，威胁着新的感染浪潮，这些预测对环境来说听起来相当乐观。</blockquote> Now, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.<blockquote>现在，银行和交易员正在谈论每桶100美元的布伦特原油。当然，造成这种情况的一个很大原因是本月早些时候德克萨斯州冻结导致美国石油产量暴跌。这甚至比去年疫情导致的产量下降还要严重，而且需要一段时间才能恢复——如果完全恢复的话。</blockquote> Yet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.<blockquote>然而，一些关键市场的需求也在稳步复苏，尤其是中国。这种复苏在很大程度上抵消了美国等其他大型消费国缓慢恢复的石油需求，并帮助推高了价格。</blockquote> Then, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.<blockquote>当然，为了应对危机，政府向世界各地的经济体注入了刺激措施。数万亿美元已投入企业和家庭，希望这将有助于尽快让GDP重回增长轨道。美国再次对石油情绪的变化至关重要：在乔·拜登总统提出1.9万亿美元的刺激计划后，油价预测迅速修正。</blockquote> The package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.<blockquote>该方案仍在辩论中，最终可能会比最初提议的规模更小。但在石油方面，它已经完成了它的工作。银行、美联储和财政部都预计，由于这种刺激措施，经济将迅速复苏，而随着人们开始更多地旅行，快速复苏将不可避免地包括石油需求的反弹。</blockquote> Meanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal&nbsp;recently wrote an&nbsp;analysis&nbsp;of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.<blockquote>与此同时，全球石油库存正在下降，尽管并非所有原因都很清楚。The华尔街日报最近写了一篇关于所谓失踪桶的分析，即不知何故被库存追踪者发现的石油桶，去年达到了创纪录的68%，占全球库存估计增幅总计13.9亿桶。在失踪桶的神秘之外，欧佩克+的减产努力卓有成效，美国页岩油生产商这一次对恢复增长模式持谨慎态度，尤其是因为油价。</blockquote> In this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and&nbsp;Energy Aspects&nbsp;all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada&nbsp;told&nbsp;Bloomberg.<blockquote>在这种背景下，本周早些时候美国银行、Socar Trading和Energy Aspects都表示布伦特原油价格可能在未来两年内升至100美元也就不足为奇了。据阿塞拜疆石油营销公司Socar Trading称，由于再平衡的基本面，价格正在上涨，到夏季，布伦特原油价格可能会达到每桶80美元。该公司首席交易官Hayal Ahmadzada告诉彭博社，由于供应仍然紧张，价格可能会进一步攀升至每桶100美元。</blockquote> Energy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.<blockquote>另一方面，能源方面阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)将经济刺激视为预期价格上涨的主要原因。</blockquote> “It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.<blockquote>“这是一个期货市场，我们总是对未来、现在将要发生的事情进行折扣。这就是价格现在上涨的原因，”森在接受彭博社监测采访时表示。“我们一直呼吁2022年油价上涨80美元。考虑到系统中的流动性，现在可能是100美元。我不排除这种可能性，”她补充道。</blockquote> Of course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.<blockquote>当然，在中国以外，需求反弹的预期尚未实现，此外还有沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和伊朗即将增加产量的问题。由于美国产量仍然低迷，这些可能不会立即影响价格。但每天增加几百万桶肯定会施加一些压力。</blockquote> Then there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is&nbsp;set to discuss&nbsp;a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.<blockquote>然后是石油输出国组织的最新消息：除了沙特阿拉伯取消3月份自愿减产100万桶/日之外，该组织还将讨论集体增产。然而，如果达成一致，增幅将不大，为50万桶/日。这与欧佩克+1月份恢复的产量相同，总体减产减少了720万桶/日，不包括沙特阿拉伯单方面的额外减产。</blockquote> This means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible&nbsp;return&nbsp;of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.<blockquote>这意味着到4月份，该组织的日产量可能会比现在多150万桶，这还不包括伊朗石油可能重返市场。这可能会干扰近期的价格预期，但到明年，新生产投资不足的影响将变得更加明显，从而刺激价格上涨。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-High-Can-Oil-Really-Go.html\">Oilprice</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-High-Can-Oil-Really-Go.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137629357","content_text":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.\nNow, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.\nYet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.\nThen, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.\nThe package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.\nMeanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal recently wrote an analysis of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.\nIn this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and Energy Aspects all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada told Bloomberg.\nEnergy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.\n“It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.\nOf course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.\nThen there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is set to discuss a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.\nThis means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible return of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":368622199,"gmtCreate":1614320191211,"gmtModify":1703476314068,"author":{"id":"3576232257279797","authorId":"3576232257279797","name":"43c0b98","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576232257279797","authorIdStr":"3576232257279797"},"htmlText":"Oil related stocks are rallying , we can at least move up another few % points next monday","listText":"Oil related stocks are rallying , we can at least move up another few % points next monday","text":"Oil related stocks are rallying , we can at least move up another few % points next monday","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368622199","repostId":1137629357,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137629357","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614310123,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137629357?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-26 11:28","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"How High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137629357","media":"Oilprice","summary":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year,","content":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.<blockquote>油价修正开始时很谨慎：一些银行认为布伦特原油今年的平均价格为每桶65美元，而其他银行则更大胆地预测，石油基准可能会攀升至每桶65美元。就在几个月前，鉴于新冠肺炎疫苗的缓慢推出、石油供应持续过剩以及冠状病毒变种在世界不同地区出现的报道，威胁着新的感染浪潮，这些预测对环境来说听起来相当乐观。</blockquote> Now, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.<blockquote>现在，银行和交易员正在谈论每桶100美元的布伦特原油。当然，造成这种情况的一个很大原因是本月早些时候德克萨斯州冻结导致美国石油产量暴跌。这甚至比去年疫情导致的产量下降还要严重，而且需要一段时间才能恢复——如果完全恢复的话。</blockquote> Yet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.<blockquote>然而，一些关键市场的需求也在稳步复苏，尤其是中国。这种复苏在很大程度上抵消了美国等其他大型消费国缓慢恢复的石油需求，并帮助推高了价格。</blockquote> Then, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.<blockquote>当然，为了应对危机，政府向世界各地的经济体注入了刺激措施。数万亿美元已投入企业和家庭，希望这将有助于尽快让GDP重回增长轨道。美国再次对石油情绪的变化至关重要：在乔·拜登总统提出1.9万亿美元的刺激计划后，油价预测迅速修正。</blockquote> The package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.<blockquote>该方案仍在辩论中，最终可能会比最初提议的规模更小。但在石油方面，它已经完成了它的工作。银行、美联储和财政部都预计，由于这种刺激措施，经济将迅速复苏，而随着人们开始更多地旅行，快速复苏将不可避免地包括石油需求的反弹。</blockquote> Meanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal&nbsp;recently wrote an&nbsp;analysis&nbsp;of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.<blockquote>与此同时，全球石油库存正在下降，尽管并非所有原因都很清楚。The华尔街日报最近写了一篇关于所谓失踪桶的分析，即不知何故被库存追踪者发现的石油桶，去年达到了创纪录的68%，占全球库存估计增幅总计13.9亿桶。在失踪桶的神秘之外，欧佩克+的减产努力卓有成效，美国页岩油生产商这一次对恢复增长模式持谨慎态度，尤其是因为油价。</blockquote> In this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and&nbsp;Energy Aspects&nbsp;all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada&nbsp;told&nbsp;Bloomberg.<blockquote>在这种背景下，本周早些时候美国银行、Socar Trading和Energy Aspects都表示布伦特原油价格可能在未来两年内升至100美元也就不足为奇了。据阿塞拜疆石油营销公司Socar Trading称，由于再平衡的基本面，价格正在上涨，到夏季，布伦特原油价格可能会达到每桶80美元。该公司首席交易官Hayal Ahmadzada告诉彭博社，由于供应仍然紧张，价格可能会进一步攀升至每桶100美元。</blockquote> Energy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.<blockquote>另一方面，能源方面阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)将经济刺激视为预期价格上涨的主要原因。</blockquote> “It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.<blockquote>“这是一个期货市场，我们总是对未来、现在将要发生的事情进行折扣。这就是价格现在上涨的原因，”森在接受彭博社监测采访时表示。“我们一直呼吁2022年油价上涨80美元。考虑到系统中的流动性，现在可能是100美元。我不排除这种可能性，”她补充道。</blockquote> Of course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.<blockquote>当然，在中国以外，需求反弹的预期尚未实现，此外还有沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和伊朗即将增加产量的问题。由于美国产量仍然低迷，这些可能不会立即影响价格。但每天增加几百万桶肯定会施加一些压力。</blockquote> Then there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is&nbsp;set to discuss&nbsp;a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.<blockquote>然后是石油输出国组织的最新消息：除了沙特阿拉伯取消3月份自愿减产100万桶/日之外，该组织还将讨论集体增产。然而，如果达成一致，增幅将不大，为50万桶/日。这与欧佩克+1月份恢复的产量相同，总体减产减少了720万桶/日，不包括沙特阿拉伯单方面的额外减产。</blockquote> This means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible&nbsp;return&nbsp;of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.<blockquote>这意味着到4月份，该组织的日产量可能会比现在多150万桶，这还不包括伊朗石油可能重返市场。这可能会干扰近期的价格预期，但到明年，新生产投资不足的影响将变得更加明显，从而刺激价格上涨。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1606109400967","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nOilprice2021-02-26 11:28\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nOil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.<blockquote>油价修正开始时很谨慎：一些银行认为布伦特原油今年的平均价格为每桶65美元，而其他银行则更大胆地预测，石油基准可能会攀升至每桶65美元。就在几个月前，鉴于新冠肺炎疫苗的缓慢推出、石油供应持续过剩以及冠状病毒变种在世界不同地区出现的报道，威胁着新的感染浪潮，这些预测对环境来说听起来相当乐观。</blockquote> Now, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.<blockquote>现在，银行和交易员正在谈论每桶100美元的布伦特原油。当然，造成这种情况的一个很大原因是本月早些时候德克萨斯州冻结导致美国石油产量暴跌。这甚至比去年疫情导致的产量下降还要严重，而且需要一段时间才能恢复——如果完全恢复的话。</blockquote> Yet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.<blockquote>然而，一些关键市场的需求也在稳步复苏，尤其是中国。这种复苏在很大程度上抵消了美国等其他大型消费国缓慢恢复的石油需求，并帮助推高了价格。</blockquote> Then, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.<blockquote>当然，为了应对危机，政府向世界各地的经济体注入了刺激措施。数万亿美元已投入企业和家庭，希望这将有助于尽快让GDP重回增长轨道。美国再次对石油情绪的变化至关重要：在乔·拜登总统提出1.9万亿美元的刺激计划后，油价预测迅速修正。</blockquote> The package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.<blockquote>该方案仍在辩论中，最终可能会比最初提议的规模更小。但在石油方面，它已经完成了它的工作。银行、美联储和财政部都预计，由于这种刺激措施，经济将迅速复苏，而随着人们开始更多地旅行，快速复苏将不可避免地包括石油需求的反弹。</blockquote> Meanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal&nbsp;recently wrote an&nbsp;analysis&nbsp;of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.<blockquote>与此同时，全球石油库存正在下降，尽管并非所有原因都很清楚。The华尔街日报最近写了一篇关于所谓失踪桶的分析，即不知何故被库存追踪者发现的石油桶，去年达到了创纪录的68%，占全球库存估计增幅总计13.9亿桶。在失踪桶的神秘之外，欧佩克+的减产努力卓有成效，美国页岩油生产商这一次对恢复增长模式持谨慎态度，尤其是因为油价。</blockquote> In this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and&nbsp;Energy Aspects&nbsp;all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada&nbsp;told&nbsp;Bloomberg.<blockquote>在这种背景下，本周早些时候美国银行、Socar Trading和Energy Aspects都表示布伦特原油价格可能在未来两年内升至100美元也就不足为奇了。据阿塞拜疆石油营销公司Socar Trading称，由于再平衡的基本面，价格正在上涨，到夏季，布伦特原油价格可能会达到每桶80美元。该公司首席交易官Hayal Ahmadzada告诉彭博社，由于供应仍然紧张，价格可能会进一步攀升至每桶100美元。</blockquote> Energy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.<blockquote>另一方面，能源方面阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)将经济刺激视为预期价格上涨的主要原因。</blockquote> “It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.<blockquote>“这是一个期货市场，我们总是对未来、现在将要发生的事情进行折扣。这就是价格现在上涨的原因，”森在接受彭博社监测采访时表示。“我们一直呼吁2022年油价上涨80美元。考虑到系统中的流动性，现在可能是100美元。我不排除这种可能性，”她补充道。</blockquote> Of course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.<blockquote>当然，在中国以外，需求反弹的预期尚未实现，此外还有沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和伊朗即将增加产量的问题。由于美国产量仍然低迷，这些可能不会立即影响价格。但每天增加几百万桶肯定会施加一些压力。</blockquote> Then there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is&nbsp;set to discuss&nbsp;a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.<blockquote>然后是石油输出国组织的最新消息：除了沙特阿拉伯取消3月份自愿减产100万桶/日之外，该组织还将讨论集体增产。然而，如果达成一致，增幅将不大，为50万桶/日。这与欧佩克+1月份恢复的产量相同，总体减产减少了720万桶/日，不包括沙特阿拉伯单方面的额外减产。</blockquote> This means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible&nbsp;return&nbsp;of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.<blockquote>这意味着到4月份，该组织的日产量可能会比现在多150万桶，这还不包括伊朗石油可能重返市场。这可能会干扰近期的价格预期，但到明年，新生产投资不足的影响将变得更加明显，从而刺激价格上涨。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-High-Can-Oil-Really-Go.html\">Oilprice</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-High-Can-Oil-Really-Go.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137629357","content_text":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.\nNow, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.\nYet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.\nThen, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.\nThe package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.\nMeanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal recently wrote an analysis of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.\nIn this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and Energy Aspects all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada told Bloomberg.\nEnergy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.\n“It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.\nOf course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.\nThen there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is set to discuss a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.\nThis means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible return of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":368628710,"gmtCreate":1614320044730,"gmtModify":1703476311505,"author":{"id":"3570485250013642","authorId":"3570485250013642","name":"南洋铁公鸡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de0b2aed8d048f2ca47328393f477ab3","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3570485250013642","authorIdStr":"3570485250013642"},"htmlText":"Why is oil rallying so hard these few days?","listText":"Why is oil rallying so hard these few days?","text":"Why is oil rallying so hard these few days?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368628710","repostId":1137629357,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137629357","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614310123,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137629357?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-26 11:28","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"How High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137629357","media":"Oilprice","summary":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year,","content":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.<blockquote>油价修正开始时很谨慎：一些银行认为布伦特原油今年的平均价格为每桶65美元，而其他银行则更大胆地预测，石油基准可能会攀升至每桶65美元。就在几个月前，鉴于新冠肺炎疫苗的缓慢推出、石油供应持续过剩以及冠状病毒变种在世界不同地区出现的报道，威胁着新的感染浪潮，这些预测对环境来说听起来相当乐观。</blockquote> Now, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.<blockquote>现在，银行和交易员正在谈论每桶100美元的布伦特原油。当然，造成这种情况的一个很大原因是本月早些时候德克萨斯州冻结导致美国石油产量暴跌。这甚至比去年疫情导致的产量下降还要严重，而且需要一段时间才能恢复——如果完全恢复的话。</blockquote> Yet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.<blockquote>然而，一些关键市场的需求也在稳步复苏，尤其是中国。这种复苏在很大程度上抵消了美国等其他大型消费国缓慢恢复的石油需求，并帮助推高了价格。</blockquote> Then, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.<blockquote>当然，为了应对危机，政府向世界各地的经济体注入了刺激措施。数万亿美元已投入企业和家庭，希望这将有助于尽快让GDP重回增长轨道。美国再次对石油情绪的变化至关重要：在乔·拜登总统提出1.9万亿美元的刺激计划后，油价预测迅速修正。</blockquote> The package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.<blockquote>该方案仍在辩论中，最终可能会比最初提议的规模更小。但在石油方面，它已经完成了它的工作。银行、美联储和财政部都预计，由于这种刺激措施，经济将迅速复苏，而随着人们开始更多地旅行，快速复苏将不可避免地包括石油需求的反弹。</blockquote> Meanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal&nbsp;recently wrote an&nbsp;analysis&nbsp;of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.<blockquote>与此同时，全球石油库存正在下降，尽管并非所有原因都很清楚。The华尔街日报最近写了一篇关于所谓失踪桶的分析，即不知何故被库存追踪者发现的石油桶，去年达到了创纪录的68%，占全球库存估计增幅总计13.9亿桶。在失踪桶的神秘之外，欧佩克+的减产努力卓有成效，美国页岩油生产商这一次对恢复增长模式持谨慎态度，尤其是因为油价。</blockquote> In this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and&nbsp;Energy Aspects&nbsp;all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada&nbsp;told&nbsp;Bloomberg.<blockquote>在这种背景下，本周早些时候美国银行、Socar Trading和Energy Aspects都表示布伦特原油价格可能在未来两年内升至100美元也就不足为奇了。据阿塞拜疆石油营销公司Socar Trading称，由于再平衡的基本面，价格正在上涨，到夏季，布伦特原油价格可能会达到每桶80美元。该公司首席交易官Hayal Ahmadzada告诉彭博社，由于供应仍然紧张，价格可能会进一步攀升至每桶100美元。</blockquote> Energy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.<blockquote>另一方面，能源方面阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)将经济刺激视为预期价格上涨的主要原因。</blockquote> “It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.<blockquote>“这是一个期货市场，我们总是对未来、现在将要发生的事情进行折扣。这就是价格现在上涨的原因，”森在接受彭博社监测采访时表示。“我们一直呼吁2022年油价上涨80美元。考虑到系统中的流动性，现在可能是100美元。我不排除这种可能性，”她补充道。</blockquote> Of course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.<blockquote>当然，在中国以外，需求反弹的预期尚未实现，此外还有沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和伊朗即将增加产量的问题。由于美国产量仍然低迷，这些可能不会立即影响价格。但每天增加几百万桶肯定会施加一些压力。</blockquote> Then there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is&nbsp;set to discuss&nbsp;a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.<blockquote>然后是石油输出国组织的最新消息：除了沙特阿拉伯取消3月份自愿减产100万桶/日之外，该组织还将讨论集体增产。然而，如果达成一致，增幅将不大，为50万桶/日。这与欧佩克+1月份恢复的产量相同，总体减产减少了720万桶/日，不包括沙特阿拉伯单方面的额外减产。</blockquote> This means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible&nbsp;return&nbsp;of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.<blockquote>这意味着到4月份，该组织的日产量可能会比现在多150万桶，这还不包括伊朗石油可能重返市场。这可能会干扰近期的价格预期，但到明年，新生产投资不足的影响将变得更加明显，从而刺激价格上涨。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1606109400967","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nOilprice2021-02-26 11:28\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nOil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.<blockquote>油价修正开始时很谨慎：一些银行认为布伦特原油今年的平均价格为每桶65美元，而其他银行则更大胆地预测，石油基准可能会攀升至每桶65美元。就在几个月前，鉴于新冠肺炎疫苗的缓慢推出、石油供应持续过剩以及冠状病毒变种在世界不同地区出现的报道，威胁着新的感染浪潮，这些预测对环境来说听起来相当乐观。</blockquote> Now, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.<blockquote>现在，银行和交易员正在谈论每桶100美元的布伦特原油。当然，造成这种情况的一个很大原因是本月早些时候德克萨斯州冻结导致美国石油产量暴跌。这甚至比去年疫情导致的产量下降还要严重，而且需要一段时间才能恢复——如果完全恢复的话。</blockquote> Yet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.<blockquote>然而，一些关键市场的需求也在稳步复苏，尤其是中国。这种复苏在很大程度上抵消了美国等其他大型消费国缓慢恢复的石油需求，并帮助推高了价格。</blockquote> Then, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.<blockquote>当然，为了应对危机，政府向世界各地的经济体注入了刺激措施。数万亿美元已投入企业和家庭，希望这将有助于尽快让GDP重回增长轨道。美国再次对石油情绪的变化至关重要：在乔·拜登总统提出1.9万亿美元的刺激计划后，油价预测迅速修正。</blockquote> The package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.<blockquote>该方案仍在辩论中，最终可能会比最初提议的规模更小。但在石油方面，它已经完成了它的工作。银行、美联储和财政部都预计，由于这种刺激措施，经济将迅速复苏，而随着人们开始更多地旅行，快速复苏将不可避免地包括石油需求的反弹。</blockquote> Meanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal&nbsp;recently wrote an&nbsp;analysis&nbsp;of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.<blockquote>与此同时，全球石油库存正在下降，尽管并非所有原因都很清楚。The华尔街日报最近写了一篇关于所谓失踪桶的分析，即不知何故被库存追踪者发现的石油桶，去年达到了创纪录的68%，占全球库存估计增幅总计13.9亿桶。在失踪桶的神秘之外，欧佩克+的减产努力卓有成效，美国页岩油生产商这一次对恢复增长模式持谨慎态度，尤其是因为油价。</blockquote> In this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and&nbsp;Energy Aspects&nbsp;all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada&nbsp;told&nbsp;Bloomberg.<blockquote>在这种背景下，本周早些时候美国银行、Socar Trading和Energy Aspects都表示布伦特原油价格可能在未来两年内升至100美元也就不足为奇了。据阿塞拜疆石油营销公司Socar Trading称，由于再平衡的基本面，价格正在上涨，到夏季，布伦特原油价格可能会达到每桶80美元。该公司首席交易官Hayal Ahmadzada告诉彭博社，由于供应仍然紧张，价格可能会进一步攀升至每桶100美元。</blockquote> Energy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.<blockquote>另一方面，能源方面阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)将经济刺激视为预期价格上涨的主要原因。</blockquote> “It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.<blockquote>“这是一个期货市场，我们总是对未来、现在将要发生的事情进行折扣。这就是价格现在上涨的原因，”森在接受彭博社监测采访时表示。“我们一直呼吁2022年油价上涨80美元。考虑到系统中的流动性，现在可能是100美元。我不排除这种可能性，”她补充道。</blockquote> Of course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.<blockquote>当然，在中国以外，需求反弹的预期尚未实现，此外还有沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和伊朗即将增加产量的问题。由于美国产量仍然低迷，这些可能不会立即影响价格。但每天增加几百万桶肯定会施加一些压力。</blockquote> Then there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is&nbsp;set to discuss&nbsp;a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.<blockquote>然后是石油输出国组织的最新消息：除了沙特阿拉伯取消3月份自愿减产100万桶/日之外，该组织还将讨论集体增产。然而，如果达成一致，增幅将不大，为50万桶/日。这与欧佩克+1月份恢复的产量相同，总体减产减少了720万桶/日，不包括沙特阿拉伯单方面的额外减产。</blockquote> This means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible&nbsp;return&nbsp;of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.<blockquote>这意味着到4月份，该组织的日产量可能会比现在多150万桶，这还不包括伊朗石油可能重返市场。这可能会干扰近期的价格预期，但到明年，新生产投资不足的影响将变得更加明显，从而刺激价格上涨。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-High-Can-Oil-Really-Go.html\">Oilprice</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-High-Can-Oil-Really-Go.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137629357","content_text":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.\nNow, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.\nYet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.\nThen, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.\nThe package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.\nMeanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal recently wrote an analysis of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.\nIn this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and Energy Aspects all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada told Bloomberg.\nEnergy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.\n“It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.\nOf course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.\nThen there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is set to discuss a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.\nThis means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible return of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":368680279,"gmtCreate":1614317705891,"gmtModify":1703476278738,"author":{"id":"3570531027454372","authorId":"3570531027454372","name":"AndyGohKJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c341f880b1434748ec70208fe9f0344c","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3570531027454372","authorIdStr":"3570531027454372"},"htmlText":"As far as it can go","listText":"As far as it can go","text":"As far as it can go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368680279","repostId":1137629357,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137629357","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614310123,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137629357?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-26 11:28","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"How High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137629357","media":"Oilprice","summary":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year,","content":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.<blockquote>油价修正开始时很谨慎：一些银行认为布伦特原油今年的平均价格为每桶65美元，而其他银行则更大胆地预测，石油基准可能会攀升至每桶65美元。就在几个月前，鉴于新冠肺炎疫苗的缓慢推出、石油供应持续过剩以及冠状病毒变种在世界不同地区出现的报道，威胁着新的感染浪潮，这些预测对环境来说听起来相当乐观。</blockquote> Now, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.<blockquote>现在，银行和交易员正在谈论每桶100美元的布伦特原油。当然，造成这种情况的一个很大原因是本月早些时候德克萨斯州冻结导致美国石油产量暴跌。这甚至比去年疫情导致的产量下降还要严重，而且需要一段时间才能恢复——如果完全恢复的话。</blockquote> Yet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.<blockquote>然而，一些关键市场的需求也在稳步复苏，尤其是中国。这种复苏在很大程度上抵消了美国等其他大型消费国缓慢恢复的石油需求，并帮助推高了价格。</blockquote> Then, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.<blockquote>当然，为了应对危机，政府向世界各地的经济体注入了刺激措施。数万亿美元已投入企业和家庭，希望这将有助于尽快让GDP重回增长轨道。美国再次对石油情绪的变化至关重要：在乔·拜登总统提出1.9万亿美元的刺激计划后，油价预测迅速修正。</blockquote> The package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.<blockquote>该方案仍在辩论中，最终可能会比最初提议的规模更小。但在石油方面，它已经完成了它的工作。银行、美联储和财政部都预计，由于这种刺激措施，经济将迅速复苏，而随着人们开始更多地旅行，快速复苏将不可避免地包括石油需求的反弹。</blockquote> Meanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal&nbsp;recently wrote an&nbsp;analysis&nbsp;of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.<blockquote>与此同时，全球石油库存正在下降，尽管并非所有原因都很清楚。The华尔街日报最近写了一篇关于所谓失踪桶的分析，即不知何故被库存追踪者发现的石油桶，去年达到了创纪录的68%，占全球库存估计增幅总计13.9亿桶。在失踪桶的神秘之外，欧佩克+的减产努力卓有成效，美国页岩油生产商这一次对恢复增长模式持谨慎态度，尤其是因为油价。</blockquote> In this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and&nbsp;Energy Aspects&nbsp;all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada&nbsp;told&nbsp;Bloomberg.<blockquote>在这种背景下，本周早些时候美国银行、Socar Trading和Energy Aspects都表示布伦特原油价格可能在未来两年内升至100美元也就不足为奇了。据阿塞拜疆石油营销公司Socar Trading称，由于再平衡的基本面，价格正在上涨，到夏季，布伦特原油价格可能会达到每桶80美元。该公司首席交易官Hayal Ahmadzada告诉彭博社，由于供应仍然紧张，价格可能会进一步攀升至每桶100美元。</blockquote> Energy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.<blockquote>另一方面，能源方面阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)将经济刺激视为预期价格上涨的主要原因。</blockquote> “It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.<blockquote>“这是一个期货市场，我们总是对未来、现在将要发生的事情进行折扣。这就是价格现在上涨的原因，”森在接受彭博社监测采访时表示。“我们一直呼吁2022年油价上涨80美元。考虑到系统中的流动性，现在可能是100美元。我不排除这种可能性，”她补充道。</blockquote> Of course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.<blockquote>当然，在中国以外，需求反弹的预期尚未实现，此外还有沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和伊朗即将增加产量的问题。由于美国产量仍然低迷，这些可能不会立即影响价格。但每天增加几百万桶肯定会施加一些压力。</blockquote> Then there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is&nbsp;set to discuss&nbsp;a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.<blockquote>然后是石油输出国组织的最新消息：除了沙特阿拉伯取消3月份自愿减产100万桶/日之外，该组织还将讨论集体增产。然而，如果达成一致，增幅将不大，为50万桶/日。这与欧佩克+1月份恢复的产量相同，总体减产减少了720万桶/日，不包括沙特阿拉伯单方面的额外减产。</blockquote> This means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible&nbsp;return&nbsp;of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.<blockquote>这意味着到4月份，该组织的日产量可能会比现在多150万桶，这还不包括伊朗石油可能重返市场。这可能会干扰近期的价格预期，但到明年，新生产投资不足的影响将变得更加明显，从而刺激价格上涨。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1606109400967","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nOilprice2021-02-26 11:28\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nOil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.<blockquote>油价修正开始时很谨慎：一些银行认为布伦特原油今年的平均价格为每桶65美元，而其他银行则更大胆地预测，石油基准可能会攀升至每桶65美元。就在几个月前，鉴于新冠肺炎疫苗的缓慢推出、石油供应持续过剩以及冠状病毒变种在世界不同地区出现的报道，威胁着新的感染浪潮，这些预测对环境来说听起来相当乐观。</blockquote> Now, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.<blockquote>现在，银行和交易员正在谈论每桶100美元的布伦特原油。当然，造成这种情况的一个很大原因是本月早些时候德克萨斯州冻结导致美国石油产量暴跌。这甚至比去年疫情导致的产量下降还要严重，而且需要一段时间才能恢复——如果完全恢复的话。</blockquote> Yet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.<blockquote>然而，一些关键市场的需求也在稳步复苏，尤其是中国。这种复苏在很大程度上抵消了美国等其他大型消费国缓慢恢复的石油需求，并帮助推高了价格。</blockquote> Then, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.<blockquote>当然，为了应对危机，政府向世界各地的经济体注入了刺激措施。数万亿美元已投入企业和家庭，希望这将有助于尽快让GDP重回增长轨道。美国再次对石油情绪的变化至关重要：在乔·拜登总统提出1.9万亿美元的刺激计划后，油价预测迅速修正。</blockquote> The package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.<blockquote>该方案仍在辩论中，最终可能会比最初提议的规模更小。但在石油方面，它已经完成了它的工作。银行、美联储和财政部都预计，由于这种刺激措施，经济将迅速复苏，而随着人们开始更多地旅行，快速复苏将不可避免地包括石油需求的反弹。</blockquote> Meanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal&nbsp;recently wrote an&nbsp;analysis&nbsp;of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.<blockquote>与此同时，全球石油库存正在下降，尽管并非所有原因都很清楚。The华尔街日报最近写了一篇关于所谓失踪桶的分析，即不知何故被库存追踪者发现的石油桶，去年达到了创纪录的68%，占全球库存估计增幅总计13.9亿桶。在失踪桶的神秘之外，欧佩克+的减产努力卓有成效，美国页岩油生产商这一次对恢复增长模式持谨慎态度，尤其是因为油价。</blockquote> In this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and&nbsp;Energy Aspects&nbsp;all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada&nbsp;told&nbsp;Bloomberg.<blockquote>在这种背景下，本周早些时候美国银行、Socar Trading和Energy Aspects都表示布伦特原油价格可能在未来两年内升至100美元也就不足为奇了。据阿塞拜疆石油营销公司Socar Trading称，由于再平衡的基本面，价格正在上涨，到夏季，布伦特原油价格可能会达到每桶80美元。该公司首席交易官Hayal Ahmadzada告诉彭博社，由于供应仍然紧张，价格可能会进一步攀升至每桶100美元。</blockquote> Energy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.<blockquote>另一方面，能源方面阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)将经济刺激视为预期价格上涨的主要原因。</blockquote> “It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.<blockquote>“这是一个期货市场，我们总是对未来、现在将要发生的事情进行折扣。这就是价格现在上涨的原因，”森在接受彭博社监测采访时表示。“我们一直呼吁2022年油价上涨80美元。考虑到系统中的流动性，现在可能是100美元。我不排除这种可能性，”她补充道。</blockquote> Of course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.<blockquote>当然，在中国以外，需求反弹的预期尚未实现，此外还有沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和伊朗即将增加产量的问题。由于美国产量仍然低迷，这些可能不会立即影响价格。但每天增加几百万桶肯定会施加一些压力。</blockquote> Then there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is&nbsp;set to discuss&nbsp;a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.<blockquote>然后是石油输出国组织的最新消息：除了沙特阿拉伯取消3月份自愿减产100万桶/日之外，该组织还将讨论集体增产。然而，如果达成一致，增幅将不大，为50万桶/日。这与欧佩克+1月份恢复的产量相同，总体减产减少了720万桶/日，不包括沙特阿拉伯单方面的额外减产。</blockquote> This means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible&nbsp;return&nbsp;of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.<blockquote>这意味着到4月份，该组织的日产量可能会比现在多150万桶，这还不包括伊朗石油可能重返市场。这可能会干扰近期的价格预期，但到明年，新生产投资不足的影响将变得更加明显，从而刺激价格上涨。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-High-Can-Oil-Really-Go.html\">Oilprice</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-High-Can-Oil-Really-Go.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137629357","content_text":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.\nNow, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.\nYet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.\nThen, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.\nThe package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.\nMeanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal recently wrote an analysis of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.\nIn this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and Energy Aspects all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada told Bloomberg.\nEnergy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.\n“It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.\nOf course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.\nThen there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is set to discuss a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.\nThis means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible return of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3668799,"gmtCreate":1614320866819,"gmtModify":1635760873023,"authorId":3572221025729195,"author":{"id":3572221025729195,"idStr":"3572221025729195","authorId":3572221025729195,"name":"SANTANA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a061d60a2073e953cadcba23f9c87b0","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":368680279,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[流泪]","text":"[流泪]","html":"[流泪]"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":368610124,"gmtCreate":1614316588668,"gmtModify":1703476264006,"author":{"id":"3576325295778787","authorId":"3576325295778787","name":"HOTBE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f535d0d25c5b9833a0f75cd652fbbcd","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576325295778787","authorIdStr":"3576325295778787"},"htmlText":"As high as possible&nbsp;","listText":"As high as possible&nbsp;","text":"As high as possible","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368610124","repostId":1137629357,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137629357","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614310123,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137629357?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-26 11:28","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"How High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137629357","media":"Oilprice","summary":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year,","content":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.<blockquote>油价修正开始时很谨慎：一些银行认为布伦特原油今年的平均价格为每桶65美元，而其他银行则更大胆地预测，石油基准可能会攀升至每桶65美元。就在几个月前，鉴于新冠肺炎疫苗的缓慢推出、石油供应持续过剩以及冠状病毒变种在世界不同地区出现的报道，威胁着新的感染浪潮，这些预测对环境来说听起来相当乐观。</blockquote> Now, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.<blockquote>现在，银行和交易员正在谈论每桶100美元的布伦特原油。当然，造成这种情况的一个很大原因是本月早些时候德克萨斯州冻结导致美国石油产量暴跌。这甚至比去年疫情导致的产量下降还要严重，而且需要一段时间才能恢复——如果完全恢复的话。</blockquote> Yet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.<blockquote>然而，一些关键市场的需求也在稳步复苏，尤其是中国。这种复苏在很大程度上抵消了美国等其他大型消费国缓慢恢复的石油需求，并帮助推高了价格。</blockquote> Then, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.<blockquote>当然，为了应对危机，政府向世界各地的经济体注入了刺激措施。数万亿美元已投入企业和家庭，希望这将有助于尽快让GDP重回增长轨道。美国再次对石油情绪的变化至关重要：在乔·拜登总统提出1.9万亿美元的刺激计划后，油价预测迅速修正。</blockquote> The package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.<blockquote>该方案仍在辩论中，最终可能会比最初提议的规模更小。但在石油方面，它已经完成了它的工作。银行、美联储和财政部都预计，由于这种刺激措施，经济将迅速复苏，而随着人们开始更多地旅行，快速复苏将不可避免地包括石油需求的反弹。</blockquote> Meanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal&nbsp;recently wrote an&nbsp;analysis&nbsp;of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.<blockquote>与此同时，全球石油库存正在下降，尽管并非所有原因都很清楚。The华尔街日报最近写了一篇关于所谓失踪桶的分析，即不知何故被库存追踪者发现的石油桶，去年达到了创纪录的68%，占全球库存估计增幅总计13.9亿桶。在失踪桶的神秘之外，欧佩克+的减产努力卓有成效，美国页岩油生产商这一次对恢复增长模式持谨慎态度，尤其是因为油价。</blockquote> In this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and&nbsp;Energy Aspects&nbsp;all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada&nbsp;told&nbsp;Bloomberg.<blockquote>在这种背景下，本周早些时候美国银行、Socar Trading和Energy Aspects都表示布伦特原油价格可能在未来两年内升至100美元也就不足为奇了。据阿塞拜疆石油营销公司Socar Trading称，由于再平衡的基本面，价格正在上涨，到夏季，布伦特原油价格可能会达到每桶80美元。该公司首席交易官Hayal Ahmadzada告诉彭博社，由于供应仍然紧张，价格可能会进一步攀升至每桶100美元。</blockquote> Energy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.<blockquote>另一方面，能源方面阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)将经济刺激视为预期价格上涨的主要原因。</blockquote> “It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.<blockquote>“这是一个期货市场，我们总是对未来、现在将要发生的事情进行折扣。这就是价格现在上涨的原因，”森在接受彭博社监测采访时表示。“我们一直呼吁2022年油价上涨80美元。考虑到系统中的流动性，现在可能是100美元。我不排除这种可能性，”她补充道。</blockquote> Of course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.<blockquote>当然，在中国以外，需求反弹的预期尚未实现，此外还有沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和伊朗即将增加产量的问题。由于美国产量仍然低迷，这些可能不会立即影响价格。但每天增加几百万桶肯定会施加一些压力。</blockquote> Then there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is&nbsp;set to discuss&nbsp;a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.<blockquote>然后是石油输出国组织的最新消息：除了沙特阿拉伯取消3月份自愿减产100万桶/日之外，该组织还将讨论集体增产。然而，如果达成一致，增幅将不大，为50万桶/日。这与欧佩克+1月份恢复的产量相同，总体减产减少了720万桶/日，不包括沙特阿拉伯单方面的额外减产。</blockquote> This means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible&nbsp;return&nbsp;of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.<blockquote>这意味着到4月份，该组织的日产量可能会比现在多150万桶，这还不包括伊朗石油可能重返市场。这可能会干扰近期的价格预期，但到明年，新生产投资不足的影响将变得更加明显，从而刺激价格上涨。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1606109400967","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nOilprice2021-02-26 11:28\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nOil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.<blockquote>油价修正开始时很谨慎：一些银行认为布伦特原油今年的平均价格为每桶65美元，而其他银行则更大胆地预测，石油基准可能会攀升至每桶65美元。就在几个月前，鉴于新冠肺炎疫苗的缓慢推出、石油供应持续过剩以及冠状病毒变种在世界不同地区出现的报道，威胁着新的感染浪潮，这些预测对环境来说听起来相当乐观。</blockquote> Now, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.<blockquote>现在，银行和交易员正在谈论每桶100美元的布伦特原油。当然，造成这种情况的一个很大原因是本月早些时候德克萨斯州冻结导致美国石油产量暴跌。这甚至比去年疫情导致的产量下降还要严重，而且需要一段时间才能恢复——如果完全恢复的话。</blockquote> Yet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.<blockquote>然而，一些关键市场的需求也在稳步复苏，尤其是中国。这种复苏在很大程度上抵消了美国等其他大型消费国缓慢恢复的石油需求，并帮助推高了价格。</blockquote> Then, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.<blockquote>当然，为了应对危机，政府向世界各地的经济体注入了刺激措施。数万亿美元已投入企业和家庭，希望这将有助于尽快让GDP重回增长轨道。美国再次对石油情绪的变化至关重要：在乔·拜登总统提出1.9万亿美元的刺激计划后，油价预测迅速修正。</blockquote> The package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.<blockquote>该方案仍在辩论中，最终可能会比最初提议的规模更小。但在石油方面，它已经完成了它的工作。银行、美联储和财政部都预计，由于这种刺激措施，经济将迅速复苏，而随着人们开始更多地旅行，快速复苏将不可避免地包括石油需求的反弹。</blockquote> Meanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal&nbsp;recently wrote an&nbsp;analysis&nbsp;of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.<blockquote>与此同时，全球石油库存正在下降，尽管并非所有原因都很清楚。The华尔街日报最近写了一篇关于所谓失踪桶的分析，即不知何故被库存追踪者发现的石油桶，去年达到了创纪录的68%，占全球库存估计增幅总计13.9亿桶。在失踪桶的神秘之外，欧佩克+的减产努力卓有成效，美国页岩油生产商这一次对恢复增长模式持谨慎态度，尤其是因为油价。</blockquote> In this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and&nbsp;Energy Aspects&nbsp;all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada&nbsp;told&nbsp;Bloomberg.<blockquote>在这种背景下，本周早些时候美国银行、Socar Trading和Energy Aspects都表示布伦特原油价格可能在未来两年内升至100美元也就不足为奇了。据阿塞拜疆石油营销公司Socar Trading称，由于再平衡的基本面，价格正在上涨，到夏季，布伦特原油价格可能会达到每桶80美元。该公司首席交易官Hayal Ahmadzada告诉彭博社，由于供应仍然紧张，价格可能会进一步攀升至每桶100美元。</blockquote> Energy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.<blockquote>另一方面，能源方面阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)将经济刺激视为预期价格上涨的主要原因。</blockquote> “It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.<blockquote>“这是一个期货市场，我们总是对未来、现在将要发生的事情进行折扣。这就是价格现在上涨的原因，”森在接受彭博社监测采访时表示。“我们一直呼吁2022年油价上涨80美元。考虑到系统中的流动性，现在可能是100美元。我不排除这种可能性，”她补充道。</blockquote> Of course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.<blockquote>当然，在中国以外，需求反弹的预期尚未实现，此外还有沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和伊朗即将增加产量的问题。由于美国产量仍然低迷，这些可能不会立即影响价格。但每天增加几百万桶肯定会施加一些压力。</blockquote> Then there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is&nbsp;set to discuss&nbsp;a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.<blockquote>然后是石油输出国组织的最新消息：除了沙特阿拉伯取消3月份自愿减产100万桶/日之外，该组织还将讨论集体增产。然而，如果达成一致，增幅将不大，为50万桶/日。这与欧佩克+1月份恢复的产量相同，总体减产减少了720万桶/日，不包括沙特阿拉伯单方面的额外减产。</blockquote> This means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible&nbsp;return&nbsp;of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.<blockquote>这意味着到4月份，该组织的日产量可能会比现在多150万桶，这还不包括伊朗石油可能重返市场。这可能会干扰近期的价格预期，但到明年，新生产投资不足的影响将变得更加明显，从而刺激价格上涨。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-High-Can-Oil-Really-Go.html\">Oilprice</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-High-Can-Oil-Really-Go.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137629357","content_text":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.\nNow, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.\nYet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.\nThen, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.\nThe package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.\nMeanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal recently wrote an analysis of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.\nIn this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and Energy Aspects all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada told Bloomberg.\nEnergy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.\n“It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.\nOf course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.\nThen there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is set to discuss a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.\nThis means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible return of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":368635378,"gmtCreate":1614316077594,"gmtModify":1703476259723,"author":{"id":"3570519374633708","authorId":"3570519374633708","name":"nakazatous","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ac34656b654252df0f82999785e92ae","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3570519374633708","authorIdStr":"3570519374633708"},"htmlText":"Like my comment","listText":"Like my comment","text":"Like my comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368635378","repostId":1137629357,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137629357","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614310123,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137629357?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-26 11:28","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"How High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137629357","media":"Oilprice","summary":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year,","content":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.<blockquote>油价修正开始时很谨慎：一些银行认为布伦特原油今年的平均价格为每桶65美元，而其他银行则更大胆地预测，石油基准可能会攀升至每桶65美元。就在几个月前，鉴于新冠肺炎疫苗的缓慢推出、石油供应持续过剩以及冠状病毒变种在世界不同地区出现的报道，威胁着新的感染浪潮，这些预测对环境来说听起来相当乐观。</blockquote> Now, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.<blockquote>现在，银行和交易员正在谈论每桶100美元的布伦特原油。当然，造成这种情况的一个很大原因是本月早些时候德克萨斯州冻结导致美国石油产量暴跌。这甚至比去年疫情导致的产量下降还要严重，而且需要一段时间才能恢复——如果完全恢复的话。</blockquote> Yet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.<blockquote>然而，一些关键市场的需求也在稳步复苏，尤其是中国。这种复苏在很大程度上抵消了美国等其他大型消费国缓慢恢复的石油需求，并帮助推高了价格。</blockquote> Then, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.<blockquote>当然，为了应对危机，政府向世界各地的经济体注入了刺激措施。数万亿美元已投入企业和家庭，希望这将有助于尽快让GDP重回增长轨道。美国再次对石油情绪的变化至关重要：在乔·拜登总统提出1.9万亿美元的刺激计划后，油价预测迅速修正。</blockquote> The package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.<blockquote>该方案仍在辩论中，最终可能会比最初提议的规模更小。但在石油方面，它已经完成了它的工作。银行、美联储和财政部都预计，由于这种刺激措施，经济将迅速复苏，而随着人们开始更多地旅行，快速复苏将不可避免地包括石油需求的反弹。</blockquote> Meanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal&nbsp;recently wrote an&nbsp;analysis&nbsp;of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.<blockquote>与此同时，全球石油库存正在下降，尽管并非所有原因都很清楚。The华尔街日报最近写了一篇关于所谓失踪桶的分析，即不知何故被库存追踪者发现的石油桶，去年达到了创纪录的68%，占全球库存估计增幅总计13.9亿桶。在失踪桶的神秘之外，欧佩克+的减产努力卓有成效，美国页岩油生产商这一次对恢复增长模式持谨慎态度，尤其是因为油价。</blockquote> In this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and&nbsp;Energy Aspects&nbsp;all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada&nbsp;told&nbsp;Bloomberg.<blockquote>在这种背景下，本周早些时候美国银行、Socar Trading和Energy Aspects都表示布伦特原油价格可能在未来两年内升至100美元也就不足为奇了。据阿塞拜疆石油营销公司Socar Trading称，由于再平衡的基本面，价格正在上涨，到夏季，布伦特原油价格可能会达到每桶80美元。该公司首席交易官Hayal Ahmadzada告诉彭博社，由于供应仍然紧张，价格可能会进一步攀升至每桶100美元。</blockquote> Energy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.<blockquote>另一方面，能源方面阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)将经济刺激视为预期价格上涨的主要原因。</blockquote> “It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.<blockquote>“这是一个期货市场，我们总是对未来、现在将要发生的事情进行折扣。这就是价格现在上涨的原因，”森在接受彭博社监测采访时表示。“我们一直呼吁2022年油价上涨80美元。考虑到系统中的流动性，现在可能是100美元。我不排除这种可能性，”她补充道。</blockquote> Of course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.<blockquote>当然，在中国以外，需求反弹的预期尚未实现，此外还有沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和伊朗即将增加产量的问题。由于美国产量仍然低迷，这些可能不会立即影响价格。但每天增加几百万桶肯定会施加一些压力。</blockquote> Then there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is&nbsp;set to discuss&nbsp;a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.<blockquote>然后是石油输出国组织的最新消息：除了沙特阿拉伯取消3月份自愿减产100万桶/日之外，该组织还将讨论集体增产。然而，如果达成一致，增幅将不大，为50万桶/日。这与欧佩克+1月份恢复的产量相同，总体减产减少了720万桶/日，不包括沙特阿拉伯单方面的额外减产。</blockquote> This means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible&nbsp;return&nbsp;of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.<blockquote>这意味着到4月份，该组织的日产量可能会比现在多150万桶，这还不包括伊朗石油可能重返市场。这可能会干扰近期的价格预期，但到明年，新生产投资不足的影响将变得更加明显，从而刺激价格上涨。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1606109400967","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nOilprice2021-02-26 11:28\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nOil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.<blockquote>油价修正开始时很谨慎：一些银行认为布伦特原油今年的平均价格为每桶65美元，而其他银行则更大胆地预测，石油基准可能会攀升至每桶65美元。就在几个月前，鉴于新冠肺炎疫苗的缓慢推出、石油供应持续过剩以及冠状病毒变种在世界不同地区出现的报道，威胁着新的感染浪潮，这些预测对环境来说听起来相当乐观。</blockquote> Now, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.<blockquote>现在，银行和交易员正在谈论每桶100美元的布伦特原油。当然，造成这种情况的一个很大原因是本月早些时候德克萨斯州冻结导致美国石油产量暴跌。这甚至比去年疫情导致的产量下降还要严重，而且需要一段时间才能恢复——如果完全恢复的话。</blockquote> Yet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.<blockquote>然而，一些关键市场的需求也在稳步复苏，尤其是中国。这种复苏在很大程度上抵消了美国等其他大型消费国缓慢恢复的石油需求，并帮助推高了价格。</blockquote> Then, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.<blockquote>当然，为了应对危机，政府向世界各地的经济体注入了刺激措施。数万亿美元已投入企业和家庭，希望这将有助于尽快让GDP重回增长轨道。美国再次对石油情绪的变化至关重要：在乔·拜登总统提出1.9万亿美元的刺激计划后，油价预测迅速修正。</blockquote> The package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.<blockquote>该方案仍在辩论中，最终可能会比最初提议的规模更小。但在石油方面，它已经完成了它的工作。银行、美联储和财政部都预计，由于这种刺激措施，经济将迅速复苏，而随着人们开始更多地旅行，快速复苏将不可避免地包括石油需求的反弹。</blockquote> Meanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal&nbsp;recently wrote an&nbsp;analysis&nbsp;of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.<blockquote>与此同时，全球石油库存正在下降，尽管并非所有原因都很清楚。The华尔街日报最近写了一篇关于所谓失踪桶的分析，即不知何故被库存追踪者发现的石油桶，去年达到了创纪录的68%，占全球库存估计增幅总计13.9亿桶。在失踪桶的神秘之外，欧佩克+的减产努力卓有成效，美国页岩油生产商这一次对恢复增长模式持谨慎态度，尤其是因为油价。</blockquote> In this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and&nbsp;Energy Aspects&nbsp;all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada&nbsp;told&nbsp;Bloomberg.<blockquote>在这种背景下，本周早些时候美国银行、Socar Trading和Energy Aspects都表示布伦特原油价格可能在未来两年内升至100美元也就不足为奇了。据阿塞拜疆石油营销公司Socar Trading称，由于再平衡的基本面，价格正在上涨，到夏季，布伦特原油价格可能会达到每桶80美元。该公司首席交易官Hayal Ahmadzada告诉彭博社，由于供应仍然紧张，价格可能会进一步攀升至每桶100美元。</blockquote> Energy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.<blockquote>另一方面，能源方面阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)将经济刺激视为预期价格上涨的主要原因。</blockquote> “It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.<blockquote>“这是一个期货市场，我们总是对未来、现在将要发生的事情进行折扣。这就是价格现在上涨的原因，”森在接受彭博社监测采访时表示。“我们一直呼吁2022年油价上涨80美元。考虑到系统中的流动性，现在可能是100美元。我不排除这种可能性，”她补充道。</blockquote> Of course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.<blockquote>当然，在中国以外，需求反弹的预期尚未实现，此外还有沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和伊朗即将增加产量的问题。由于美国产量仍然低迷，这些可能不会立即影响价格。但每天增加几百万桶肯定会施加一些压力。</blockquote> Then there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is&nbsp;set to discuss&nbsp;a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.<blockquote>然后是石油输出国组织的最新消息：除了沙特阿拉伯取消3月份自愿减产100万桶/日之外，该组织还将讨论集体增产。然而，如果达成一致，增幅将不大，为50万桶/日。这与欧佩克+1月份恢复的产量相同，总体减产减少了720万桶/日，不包括沙特阿拉伯单方面的额外减产。</blockquote> This means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible&nbsp;return&nbsp;of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.<blockquote>这意味着到4月份，该组织的日产量可能会比现在多150万桶，这还不包括伊朗石油可能重返市场。这可能会干扰近期的价格预期，但到明年，新生产投资不足的影响将变得更加明显，从而刺激价格上涨。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-High-Can-Oil-Really-Go.html\">Oilprice</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-High-Can-Oil-Really-Go.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137629357","content_text":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.\nNow, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.\nYet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.\nThen, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.\nThe package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.\nMeanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal recently wrote an analysis of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.\nIn this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and Energy Aspects all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada told Bloomberg.\nEnergy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.\n“It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.\nOf course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.\nThen there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is set to discuss a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.\nThis means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible return of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3668806,"gmtCreate":1614320915625,"gmtModify":1635760872693,"authorId":3572302892296559,"author":{"id":3572302892296559,"idStr":"3572302892296559","authorId":3572302892296559,"name":"树魔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e77342960834beed3d29705297958fb","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":368635378,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":" Oil oil oil","text":" Oil oil oil","html":" Oil oil oil"},{"id":3677002,"gmtCreate":1614393936598,"gmtModify":1635760566467,"authorId":3566821013640470,"author":{"id":3566821013640470,"idStr":"3566821013640470","authorId":3566821013640470,"name":"Jazling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85e0a83573d9307f57fca9b2baed72af","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":368635378,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Okok","text":"Okok","html":"Okok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":368638646,"gmtCreate":1614315832185,"gmtModify":1703476255102,"author":{"id":"3575807346407979","authorId":"3575807346407979","name":"4XKEYQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de3f10a9c3304a65bad52cfc9b4792f0","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575807346407979","authorIdStr":"3575807346407979"},"htmlText":"Pls like and cmt","listText":"Pls like and cmt","text":"Pls like and cmt","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368638646","repostId":1137629357,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137629357","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614310123,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137629357?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-26 11:28","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"How High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137629357","media":"Oilprice","summary":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year,","content":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.<blockquote>油价修正开始时很谨慎：一些银行认为布伦特原油今年的平均价格为每桶65美元，而其他银行则更大胆地预测，石油基准可能会攀升至每桶65美元。就在几个月前，鉴于新冠肺炎疫苗的缓慢推出、石油供应持续过剩以及冠状病毒变种在世界不同地区出现的报道，威胁着新的感染浪潮，这些预测对环境来说听起来相当乐观。</blockquote> Now, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.<blockquote>现在，银行和交易员正在谈论每桶100美元的布伦特原油。当然，造成这种情况的一个很大原因是本月早些时候德克萨斯州冻结导致美国石油产量暴跌。这甚至比去年疫情导致的产量下降还要严重，而且需要一段时间才能恢复——如果完全恢复的话。</blockquote> Yet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.<blockquote>然而，一些关键市场的需求也在稳步复苏，尤其是中国。这种复苏在很大程度上抵消了美国等其他大型消费国缓慢恢复的石油需求，并帮助推高了价格。</blockquote> Then, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.<blockquote>当然，为了应对危机，政府向世界各地的经济体注入了刺激措施。数万亿美元已投入企业和家庭，希望这将有助于尽快让GDP重回增长轨道。美国再次对石油情绪的变化至关重要：在乔·拜登总统提出1.9万亿美元的刺激计划后，油价预测迅速修正。</blockquote> The package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.<blockquote>该方案仍在辩论中，最终可能会比最初提议的规模更小。但在石油方面，它已经完成了它的工作。银行、美联储和财政部都预计，由于这种刺激措施，经济将迅速复苏，而随着人们开始更多地旅行，快速复苏将不可避免地包括石油需求的反弹。</blockquote> Meanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal&nbsp;recently wrote an&nbsp;analysis&nbsp;of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.<blockquote>与此同时，全球石油库存正在下降，尽管并非所有原因都很清楚。The华尔街日报最近写了一篇关于所谓失踪桶的分析，即不知何故被库存追踪者发现的石油桶，去年达到了创纪录的68%，占全球库存估计增幅总计13.9亿桶。在失踪桶的神秘之外，欧佩克+的减产努力卓有成效，美国页岩油生产商这一次对恢复增长模式持谨慎态度，尤其是因为油价。</blockquote> In this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and&nbsp;Energy Aspects&nbsp;all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada&nbsp;told&nbsp;Bloomberg.<blockquote>在这种背景下，本周早些时候美国银行、Socar Trading和Energy Aspects都表示布伦特原油价格可能在未来两年内升至100美元也就不足为奇了。据阿塞拜疆石油营销公司Socar Trading称，由于再平衡的基本面，价格正在上涨，到夏季，布伦特原油价格可能会达到每桶80美元。该公司首席交易官Hayal Ahmadzada告诉彭博社，由于供应仍然紧张，价格可能会进一步攀升至每桶100美元。</blockquote> Energy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.<blockquote>另一方面，能源方面阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)将经济刺激视为预期价格上涨的主要原因。</blockquote> “It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.<blockquote>“这是一个期货市场，我们总是对未来、现在将要发生的事情进行折扣。这就是价格现在上涨的原因，”森在接受彭博社监测采访时表示。“我们一直呼吁2022年油价上涨80美元。考虑到系统中的流动性，现在可能是100美元。我不排除这种可能性，”她补充道。</blockquote> Of course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.<blockquote>当然，在中国以外，需求反弹的预期尚未实现，此外还有沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和伊朗即将增加产量的问题。由于美国产量仍然低迷，这些可能不会立即影响价格。但每天增加几百万桶肯定会施加一些压力。</blockquote> Then there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is&nbsp;set to discuss&nbsp;a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.<blockquote>然后是石油输出国组织的最新消息：除了沙特阿拉伯取消3月份自愿减产100万桶/日之外，该组织还将讨论集体增产。然而，如果达成一致，增幅将不大，为50万桶/日。这与欧佩克+1月份恢复的产量相同，总体减产减少了720万桶/日，不包括沙特阿拉伯单方面的额外减产。</blockquote> This means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible&nbsp;return&nbsp;of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.<blockquote>这意味着到4月份，该组织的日产量可能会比现在多150万桶，这还不包括伊朗石油可能重返市场。这可能会干扰近期的价格预期，但到明年，新生产投资不足的影响将变得更加明显，从而刺激价格上涨。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1606109400967","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nOilprice2021-02-26 11:28\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nOil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.<blockquote>油价修正开始时很谨慎：一些银行认为布伦特原油今年的平均价格为每桶65美元，而其他银行则更大胆地预测，石油基准可能会攀升至每桶65美元。就在几个月前，鉴于新冠肺炎疫苗的缓慢推出、石油供应持续过剩以及冠状病毒变种在世界不同地区出现的报道，威胁着新的感染浪潮，这些预测对环境来说听起来相当乐观。</blockquote> Now, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.<blockquote>现在，银行和交易员正在谈论每桶100美元的布伦特原油。当然，造成这种情况的一个很大原因是本月早些时候德克萨斯州冻结导致美国石油产量暴跌。这甚至比去年疫情导致的产量下降还要严重，而且需要一段时间才能恢复——如果完全恢复的话。</blockquote> Yet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.<blockquote>然而，一些关键市场的需求也在稳步复苏，尤其是中国。这种复苏在很大程度上抵消了美国等其他大型消费国缓慢恢复的石油需求，并帮助推高了价格。</blockquote> Then, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.<blockquote>当然，为了应对危机，政府向世界各地的经济体注入了刺激措施。数万亿美元已投入企业和家庭，希望这将有助于尽快让GDP重回增长轨道。美国再次对石油情绪的变化至关重要：在乔·拜登总统提出1.9万亿美元的刺激计划后，油价预测迅速修正。</blockquote> The package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.<blockquote>该方案仍在辩论中，最终可能会比最初提议的规模更小。但在石油方面，它已经完成了它的工作。银行、美联储和财政部都预计，由于这种刺激措施，经济将迅速复苏，而随着人们开始更多地旅行，快速复苏将不可避免地包括石油需求的反弹。</blockquote> Meanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal&nbsp;recently wrote an&nbsp;analysis&nbsp;of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.<blockquote>与此同时，全球石油库存正在下降，尽管并非所有原因都很清楚。The华尔街日报最近写了一篇关于所谓失踪桶的分析，即不知何故被库存追踪者发现的石油桶，去年达到了创纪录的68%，占全球库存估计增幅总计13.9亿桶。在失踪桶的神秘之外，欧佩克+的减产努力卓有成效，美国页岩油生产商这一次对恢复增长模式持谨慎态度，尤其是因为油价。</blockquote> In this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and&nbsp;Energy Aspects&nbsp;all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada&nbsp;told&nbsp;Bloomberg.<blockquote>在这种背景下，本周早些时候美国银行、Socar Trading和Energy Aspects都表示布伦特原油价格可能在未来两年内升至100美元也就不足为奇了。据阿塞拜疆石油营销公司Socar Trading称，由于再平衡的基本面，价格正在上涨，到夏季，布伦特原油价格可能会达到每桶80美元。该公司首席交易官Hayal Ahmadzada告诉彭博社，由于供应仍然紧张，价格可能会进一步攀升至每桶100美元。</blockquote> Energy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.<blockquote>另一方面，能源方面阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)将经济刺激视为预期价格上涨的主要原因。</blockquote> “It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.<blockquote>“这是一个期货市场，我们总是对未来、现在将要发生的事情进行折扣。这就是价格现在上涨的原因，”森在接受彭博社监测采访时表示。“我们一直呼吁2022年油价上涨80美元。考虑到系统中的流动性，现在可能是100美元。我不排除这种可能性，”她补充道。</blockquote> Of course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.<blockquote>当然，在中国以外，需求反弹的预期尚未实现，此外还有沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和伊朗即将增加产量的问题。由于美国产量仍然低迷，这些可能不会立即影响价格。但每天增加几百万桶肯定会施加一些压力。</blockquote> Then there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is&nbsp;set to discuss&nbsp;a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.<blockquote>然后是石油输出国组织的最新消息：除了沙特阿拉伯取消3月份自愿减产100万桶/日之外，该组织还将讨论集体增产。然而，如果达成一致，增幅将不大，为50万桶/日。这与欧佩克+1月份恢复的产量相同，总体减产减少了720万桶/日，不包括沙特阿拉伯单方面的额外减产。</blockquote> This means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible&nbsp;return&nbsp;of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.<blockquote>这意味着到4月份，该组织的日产量可能会比现在多150万桶，这还不包括伊朗石油可能重返市场。这可能会干扰近期的价格预期，但到明年，新生产投资不足的影响将变得更加明显，从而刺激价格上涨。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-High-Can-Oil-Really-Go.html\">Oilprice</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-High-Can-Oil-Really-Go.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137629357","content_text":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.\nNow, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.\nYet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.\nThen, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.\nThe package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.\nMeanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal recently wrote an analysis of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.\nIn this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and Energy Aspects all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada told Bloomberg.\nEnergy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.\n“It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.\nOf course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.\nThen there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is set to discuss a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.\nThis means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible return of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3668945,"gmtCreate":1614322233588,"gmtModify":1635760867489,"authorId":3566532164444643,"author":{"id":3566532164444643,"idStr":"3566532164444643","authorId":3566532164444643,"name":"ZEROHERO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62813b6df1c4722e559d112fadd5486a","vip":2,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":368638646,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Here you go","text":"Here you go","html":"Here you go"},{"id":3677000,"gmtCreate":1614393926675,"gmtModify":1635760566576,"authorId":3566821013640470,"author":{"id":3566821013640470,"idStr":"3566821013640470","authorId":3566821013640470,"name":"Jazling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85e0a83573d9307f57fca9b2baed72af","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":368638646,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":368633519,"gmtCreate":1614315671531,"gmtModify":1703476252883,"author":{"id":"3571654404801251","authorId":"3571654404801251","name":"WhiteField","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82a7951ef122fa8e807bd10b0876389e","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3571654404801251","authorIdStr":"3571654404801251"},"htmlText":"It can go up","listText":"It can go up","text":"It can go up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368633519","repostId":1137629357,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137629357","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614310123,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137629357?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-26 11:28","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"How High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137629357","media":"Oilprice","summary":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year,","content":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.<blockquote>油价修正开始时很谨慎：一些银行认为布伦特原油今年的平均价格为每桶65美元，而其他银行则更大胆地预测，石油基准可能会攀升至每桶65美元。就在几个月前，鉴于新冠肺炎疫苗的缓慢推出、石油供应持续过剩以及冠状病毒变种在世界不同地区出现的报道，威胁着新的感染浪潮，这些预测对环境来说听起来相当乐观。</blockquote> Now, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.<blockquote>现在，银行和交易员正在谈论每桶100美元的布伦特原油。当然，造成这种情况的一个很大原因是本月早些时候德克萨斯州冻结导致美国石油产量暴跌。这甚至比去年疫情导致的产量下降还要严重，而且需要一段时间才能恢复——如果完全恢复的话。</blockquote> Yet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.<blockquote>然而，一些关键市场的需求也在稳步复苏，尤其是中国。这种复苏在很大程度上抵消了美国等其他大型消费国缓慢恢复的石油需求，并帮助推高了价格。</blockquote> Then, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.<blockquote>当然，为了应对危机，政府向世界各地的经济体注入了刺激措施。数万亿美元已投入企业和家庭，希望这将有助于尽快让GDP重回增长轨道。美国再次对石油情绪的变化至关重要：在乔·拜登总统提出1.9万亿美元的刺激计划后，油价预测迅速修正。</blockquote> The package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.<blockquote>该方案仍在辩论中，最终可能会比最初提议的规模更小。但在石油方面，它已经完成了它的工作。银行、美联储和财政部都预计，由于这种刺激措施，经济将迅速复苏，而随着人们开始更多地旅行，快速复苏将不可避免地包括石油需求的反弹。</blockquote> Meanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal&nbsp;recently wrote an&nbsp;analysis&nbsp;of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.<blockquote>与此同时，全球石油库存正在下降，尽管并非所有原因都很清楚。The华尔街日报最近写了一篇关于所谓失踪桶的分析，即不知何故被库存追踪者发现的石油桶，去年达到了创纪录的68%，占全球库存估计增幅总计13.9亿桶。在失踪桶的神秘之外，欧佩克+的减产努力卓有成效，美国页岩油生产商这一次对恢复增长模式持谨慎态度，尤其是因为油价。</blockquote> In this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and&nbsp;Energy Aspects&nbsp;all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada&nbsp;told&nbsp;Bloomberg.<blockquote>在这种背景下，本周早些时候美国银行、Socar Trading和Energy Aspects都表示布伦特原油价格可能在未来两年内升至100美元也就不足为奇了。据阿塞拜疆石油营销公司Socar Trading称，由于再平衡的基本面，价格正在上涨，到夏季，布伦特原油价格可能会达到每桶80美元。该公司首席交易官Hayal Ahmadzada告诉彭博社，由于供应仍然紧张，价格可能会进一步攀升至每桶100美元。</blockquote> Energy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.<blockquote>另一方面，能源方面阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)将经济刺激视为预期价格上涨的主要原因。</blockquote> “It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.<blockquote>“这是一个期货市场，我们总是对未来、现在将要发生的事情进行折扣。这就是价格现在上涨的原因，”森在接受彭博社监测采访时表示。“我们一直呼吁2022年油价上涨80美元。考虑到系统中的流动性，现在可能是100美元。我不排除这种可能性，”她补充道。</blockquote> Of course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.<blockquote>当然，在中国以外，需求反弹的预期尚未实现，此外还有沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和伊朗即将增加产量的问题。由于美国产量仍然低迷，这些可能不会立即影响价格。但每天增加几百万桶肯定会施加一些压力。</blockquote> Then there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is&nbsp;set to discuss&nbsp;a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.<blockquote>然后是石油输出国组织的最新消息：除了沙特阿拉伯取消3月份自愿减产100万桶/日之外，该组织还将讨论集体增产。然而，如果达成一致，增幅将不大，为50万桶/日。这与欧佩克+1月份恢复的产量相同，总体减产减少了720万桶/日，不包括沙特阿拉伯单方面的额外减产。</blockquote> This means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible&nbsp;return&nbsp;of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.<blockquote>这意味着到4月份，该组织的日产量可能会比现在多150万桶，这还不包括伊朗石油可能重返市场。这可能会干扰近期的价格预期，但到明年，新生产投资不足的影响将变得更加明显，从而刺激价格上涨。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1606109400967","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nOilprice2021-02-26 11:28\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nOil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.<blockquote>油价修正开始时很谨慎：一些银行认为布伦特原油今年的平均价格为每桶65美元，而其他银行则更大胆地预测，石油基准可能会攀升至每桶65美元。就在几个月前，鉴于新冠肺炎疫苗的缓慢推出、石油供应持续过剩以及冠状病毒变种在世界不同地区出现的报道，威胁着新的感染浪潮，这些预测对环境来说听起来相当乐观。</blockquote> Now, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.<blockquote>现在，银行和交易员正在谈论每桶100美元的布伦特原油。当然，造成这种情况的一个很大原因是本月早些时候德克萨斯州冻结导致美国石油产量暴跌。这甚至比去年疫情导致的产量下降还要严重，而且需要一段时间才能恢复——如果完全恢复的话。</blockquote> Yet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.<blockquote>然而，一些关键市场的需求也在稳步复苏，尤其是中国。这种复苏在很大程度上抵消了美国等其他大型消费国缓慢恢复的石油需求，并帮助推高了价格。</blockquote> Then, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.<blockquote>当然，为了应对危机，政府向世界各地的经济体注入了刺激措施。数万亿美元已投入企业和家庭，希望这将有助于尽快让GDP重回增长轨道。美国再次对石油情绪的变化至关重要：在乔·拜登总统提出1.9万亿美元的刺激计划后，油价预测迅速修正。</blockquote> The package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.<blockquote>该方案仍在辩论中，最终可能会比最初提议的规模更小。但在石油方面，它已经完成了它的工作。银行、美联储和财政部都预计，由于这种刺激措施，经济将迅速复苏，而随着人们开始更多地旅行，快速复苏将不可避免地包括石油需求的反弹。</blockquote> Meanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal&nbsp;recently wrote an&nbsp;analysis&nbsp;of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.<blockquote>与此同时，全球石油库存正在下降，尽管并非所有原因都很清楚。The华尔街日报最近写了一篇关于所谓失踪桶的分析，即不知何故被库存追踪者发现的石油桶，去年达到了创纪录的68%，占全球库存估计增幅总计13.9亿桶。在失踪桶的神秘之外，欧佩克+的减产努力卓有成效，美国页岩油生产商这一次对恢复增长模式持谨慎态度，尤其是因为油价。</blockquote> In this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and&nbsp;Energy Aspects&nbsp;all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada&nbsp;told&nbsp;Bloomberg.<blockquote>在这种背景下，本周早些时候美国银行、Socar Trading和Energy Aspects都表示布伦特原油价格可能在未来两年内升至100美元也就不足为奇了。据阿塞拜疆石油营销公司Socar Trading称，由于再平衡的基本面，价格正在上涨，到夏季，布伦特原油价格可能会达到每桶80美元。该公司首席交易官Hayal Ahmadzada告诉彭博社，由于供应仍然紧张，价格可能会进一步攀升至每桶100美元。</blockquote> Energy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.<blockquote>另一方面，能源方面阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)将经济刺激视为预期价格上涨的主要原因。</blockquote> “It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.<blockquote>“这是一个期货市场，我们总是对未来、现在将要发生的事情进行折扣。这就是价格现在上涨的原因，”森在接受彭博社监测采访时表示。“我们一直呼吁2022年油价上涨80美元。考虑到系统中的流动性，现在可能是100美元。我不排除这种可能性，”她补充道。</blockquote> Of course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.<blockquote>当然，在中国以外，需求反弹的预期尚未实现，此外还有沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和伊朗即将增加产量的问题。由于美国产量仍然低迷，这些可能不会立即影响价格。但每天增加几百万桶肯定会施加一些压力。</blockquote> Then there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is&nbsp;set to discuss&nbsp;a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.<blockquote>然后是石油输出国组织的最新消息：除了沙特阿拉伯取消3月份自愿减产100万桶/日之外，该组织还将讨论集体增产。然而，如果达成一致，增幅将不大，为50万桶/日。这与欧佩克+1月份恢复的产量相同，总体减产减少了720万桶/日，不包括沙特阿拉伯单方面的额外减产。</blockquote> This means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible&nbsp;return&nbsp;of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.<blockquote>这意味着到4月份，该组织的日产量可能会比现在多150万桶，这还不包括伊朗石油可能重返市场。这可能会干扰近期的价格预期，但到明年，新生产投资不足的影响将变得更加明显，从而刺激价格上涨。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-High-Can-Oil-Really-Go.html\">Oilprice</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-High-Can-Oil-Really-Go.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137629357","content_text":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.\nNow, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.\nYet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.\nThen, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.\nThe package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.\nMeanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal recently wrote an analysis of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.\nIn this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and Energy Aspects all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada told Bloomberg.\nEnergy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.\n“It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.\nOf course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.\nThen there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is set to discuss a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.\nThis means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible return of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":368696104,"gmtCreate":1614314933308,"gmtModify":1703476243466,"author":{"id":"3571101390027565","authorId":"3571101390027565","name":"guohaoer","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db4aff1cc5b9b782a032756d0ead58b5","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3571101390027565","authorIdStr":"3571101390027565"},"htmlText":"High&nbsp;","listText":"High&nbsp;","text":"High","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368696104","repostId":1137629357,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137629357","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614310123,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137629357?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-26 11:28","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"How High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137629357","media":"Oilprice","summary":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year,","content":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.<blockquote>油价修正开始时很谨慎：一些银行认为布伦特原油今年的平均价格为每桶65美元，而其他银行则更大胆地预测，石油基准可能会攀升至每桶65美元。就在几个月前，鉴于新冠肺炎疫苗的缓慢推出、石油供应持续过剩以及冠状病毒变种在世界不同地区出现的报道，威胁着新的感染浪潮，这些预测对环境来说听起来相当乐观。</blockquote> Now, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.<blockquote>现在，银行和交易员正在谈论每桶100美元的布伦特原油。当然，造成这种情况的一个很大原因是本月早些时候德克萨斯州冻结导致美国石油产量暴跌。这甚至比去年疫情导致的产量下降还要严重，而且需要一段时间才能恢复——如果完全恢复的话。</blockquote> Yet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.<blockquote>然而，一些关键市场的需求也在稳步复苏，尤其是中国。这种复苏在很大程度上抵消了美国等其他大型消费国缓慢恢复的石油需求，并帮助推高了价格。</blockquote> Then, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.<blockquote>当然，为了应对危机，政府向世界各地的经济体注入了刺激措施。数万亿美元已投入企业和家庭，希望这将有助于尽快让GDP重回增长轨道。美国再次对石油情绪的变化至关重要：在乔·拜登总统提出1.9万亿美元的刺激计划后，油价预测迅速修正。</blockquote> The package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.<blockquote>该方案仍在辩论中，最终可能会比最初提议的规模更小。但在石油方面，它已经完成了它的工作。银行、美联储和财政部都预计，由于这种刺激措施，经济将迅速复苏，而随着人们开始更多地旅行，快速复苏将不可避免地包括石油需求的反弹。</blockquote> Meanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal&nbsp;recently wrote an&nbsp;analysis&nbsp;of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.<blockquote>与此同时，全球石油库存正在下降，尽管并非所有原因都很清楚。The华尔街日报最近写了一篇关于所谓失踪桶的分析，即不知何故被库存追踪者发现的石油桶，去年达到了创纪录的68%，占全球库存估计增幅总计13.9亿桶。在失踪桶的神秘之外，欧佩克+的减产努力卓有成效，美国页岩油生产商这一次对恢复增长模式持谨慎态度，尤其是因为油价。</blockquote> In this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and&nbsp;Energy Aspects&nbsp;all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada&nbsp;told&nbsp;Bloomberg.<blockquote>在这种背景下，本周早些时候美国银行、Socar Trading和Energy Aspects都表示布伦特原油价格可能在未来两年内升至100美元也就不足为奇了。据阿塞拜疆石油营销公司Socar Trading称，由于再平衡的基本面，价格正在上涨，到夏季，布伦特原油价格可能会达到每桶80美元。该公司首席交易官Hayal Ahmadzada告诉彭博社，由于供应仍然紧张，价格可能会进一步攀升至每桶100美元。</blockquote> Energy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.<blockquote>另一方面，能源方面阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)将经济刺激视为预期价格上涨的主要原因。</blockquote> “It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.<blockquote>“这是一个期货市场，我们总是对未来、现在将要发生的事情进行折扣。这就是价格现在上涨的原因，”森在接受彭博社监测采访时表示。“我们一直呼吁2022年油价上涨80美元。考虑到系统中的流动性，现在可能是100美元。我不排除这种可能性，”她补充道。</blockquote> Of course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.<blockquote>当然，在中国以外，需求反弹的预期尚未实现，此外还有沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和伊朗即将增加产量的问题。由于美国产量仍然低迷，这些可能不会立即影响价格。但每天增加几百万桶肯定会施加一些压力。</blockquote> Then there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is&nbsp;set to discuss&nbsp;a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.<blockquote>然后是石油输出国组织的最新消息：除了沙特阿拉伯取消3月份自愿减产100万桶/日之外，该组织还将讨论集体增产。然而，如果达成一致，增幅将不大，为50万桶/日。这与欧佩克+1月份恢复的产量相同，总体减产减少了720万桶/日，不包括沙特阿拉伯单方面的额外减产。</blockquote> This means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible&nbsp;return&nbsp;of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.<blockquote>这意味着到4月份，该组织的日产量可能会比现在多150万桶，这还不包括伊朗石油可能重返市场。这可能会干扰近期的价格预期，但到明年，新生产投资不足的影响将变得更加明显，从而刺激价格上涨。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1606109400967","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nOilprice2021-02-26 11:28\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nOil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.<blockquote>油价修正开始时很谨慎：一些银行认为布伦特原油今年的平均价格为每桶65美元，而其他银行则更大胆地预测，石油基准可能会攀升至每桶65美元。就在几个月前，鉴于新冠肺炎疫苗的缓慢推出、石油供应持续过剩以及冠状病毒变种在世界不同地区出现的报道，威胁着新的感染浪潮，这些预测对环境来说听起来相当乐观。</blockquote> Now, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.<blockquote>现在，银行和交易员正在谈论每桶100美元的布伦特原油。当然，造成这种情况的一个很大原因是本月早些时候德克萨斯州冻结导致美国石油产量暴跌。这甚至比去年疫情导致的产量下降还要严重，而且需要一段时间才能恢复——如果完全恢复的话。</blockquote> Yet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.<blockquote>然而，一些关键市场的需求也在稳步复苏，尤其是中国。这种复苏在很大程度上抵消了美国等其他大型消费国缓慢恢复的石油需求，并帮助推高了价格。</blockquote> Then, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.<blockquote>当然，为了应对危机，政府向世界各地的经济体注入了刺激措施。数万亿美元已投入企业和家庭，希望这将有助于尽快让GDP重回增长轨道。美国再次对石油情绪的变化至关重要：在乔·拜登总统提出1.9万亿美元的刺激计划后，油价预测迅速修正。</blockquote> The package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.<blockquote>该方案仍在辩论中，最终可能会比最初提议的规模更小。但在石油方面，它已经完成了它的工作。银行、美联储和财政部都预计，由于这种刺激措施，经济将迅速复苏，而随着人们开始更多地旅行，快速复苏将不可避免地包括石油需求的反弹。</blockquote> Meanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal&nbsp;recently wrote an&nbsp;analysis&nbsp;of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.<blockquote>与此同时，全球石油库存正在下降，尽管并非所有原因都很清楚。The华尔街日报最近写了一篇关于所谓失踪桶的分析，即不知何故被库存追踪者发现的石油桶，去年达到了创纪录的68%，占全球库存估计增幅总计13.9亿桶。在失踪桶的神秘之外，欧佩克+的减产努力卓有成效，美国页岩油生产商这一次对恢复增长模式持谨慎态度，尤其是因为油价。</blockquote> In this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and&nbsp;Energy Aspects&nbsp;all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada&nbsp;told&nbsp;Bloomberg.<blockquote>在这种背景下，本周早些时候美国银行、Socar Trading和Energy Aspects都表示布伦特原油价格可能在未来两年内升至100美元也就不足为奇了。据阿塞拜疆石油营销公司Socar Trading称，由于再平衡的基本面，价格正在上涨，到夏季，布伦特原油价格可能会达到每桶80美元。该公司首席交易官Hayal Ahmadzada告诉彭博社，由于供应仍然紧张，价格可能会进一步攀升至每桶100美元。</blockquote> Energy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.<blockquote>另一方面，能源方面阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)将经济刺激视为预期价格上涨的主要原因。</blockquote> “It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.<blockquote>“这是一个期货市场，我们总是对未来、现在将要发生的事情进行折扣。这就是价格现在上涨的原因，”森在接受彭博社监测采访时表示。“我们一直呼吁2022年油价上涨80美元。考虑到系统中的流动性，现在可能是100美元。我不排除这种可能性，”她补充道。</blockquote> Of course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.<blockquote>当然，在中国以外，需求反弹的预期尚未实现，此外还有沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和伊朗即将增加产量的问题。由于美国产量仍然低迷，这些可能不会立即影响价格。但每天增加几百万桶肯定会施加一些压力。</blockquote> Then there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is&nbsp;set to discuss&nbsp;a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.<blockquote>然后是石油输出国组织的最新消息：除了沙特阿拉伯取消3月份自愿减产100万桶/日之外，该组织还将讨论集体增产。然而，如果达成一致，增幅将不大，为50万桶/日。这与欧佩克+1月份恢复的产量相同，总体减产减少了720万桶/日，不包括沙特阿拉伯单方面的额外减产。</blockquote> This means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible&nbsp;return&nbsp;of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.<blockquote>这意味着到4月份，该组织的日产量可能会比现在多150万桶，这还不包括伊朗石油可能重返市场。这可能会干扰近期的价格预期，但到明年，新生产投资不足的影响将变得更加明显，从而刺激价格上涨。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-High-Can-Oil-Really-Go.html\">Oilprice</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-High-Can-Oil-Really-Go.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137629357","content_text":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.\nNow, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.\nYet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.\nThen, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.\nThe package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.\nMeanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal recently wrote an analysis of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.\nIn this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and Energy Aspects all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada told Bloomberg.\nEnergy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.\n“It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.\nOf course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.\nThen there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is set to discuss a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.\nThis means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible return of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":368698730,"gmtCreate":1614314914720,"gmtModify":1703476242781,"author":{"id":"3574244375315958","authorId":"3574244375315958","name":"Jassss","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1a74261bc0d795b37c8c963ee5393f0","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574244375315958","authorIdStr":"3574244375315958"},"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368698730","repostId":1137629357,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137629357","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614310123,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137629357?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-26 11:28","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"How High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137629357","media":"Oilprice","summary":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year,","content":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.<blockquote>油价修正开始时很谨慎：一些银行认为布伦特原油今年的平均价格为每桶65美元，而其他银行则更大胆地预测，石油基准可能会攀升至每桶65美元。就在几个月前，鉴于新冠肺炎疫苗的缓慢推出、石油供应持续过剩以及冠状病毒变种在世界不同地区出现的报道，威胁着新的感染浪潮，这些预测对环境来说听起来相当乐观。</blockquote> Now, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.<blockquote>现在，银行和交易员正在谈论每桶100美元的布伦特原油。当然，造成这种情况的一个很大原因是本月早些时候德克萨斯州冻结导致美国石油产量暴跌。这甚至比去年疫情导致的产量下降还要严重，而且需要一段时间才能恢复——如果完全恢复的话。</blockquote> Yet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.<blockquote>然而，一些关键市场的需求也在稳步复苏，尤其是中国。这种复苏在很大程度上抵消了美国等其他大型消费国缓慢恢复的石油需求，并帮助推高了价格。</blockquote> Then, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.<blockquote>当然，为了应对危机，政府向世界各地的经济体注入了刺激措施。数万亿美元已投入企业和家庭，希望这将有助于尽快让GDP重回增长轨道。美国再次对石油情绪的变化至关重要：在乔·拜登总统提出1.9万亿美元的刺激计划后，油价预测迅速修正。</blockquote> The package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.<blockquote>该方案仍在辩论中，最终可能会比最初提议的规模更小。但在石油方面，它已经完成了它的工作。银行、美联储和财政部都预计，由于这种刺激措施，经济将迅速复苏，而随着人们开始更多地旅行，快速复苏将不可避免地包括石油需求的反弹。</blockquote> Meanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal&nbsp;recently wrote an&nbsp;analysis&nbsp;of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.<blockquote>与此同时，全球石油库存正在下降，尽管并非所有原因都很清楚。The华尔街日报最近写了一篇关于所谓失踪桶的分析，即不知何故被库存追踪者发现的石油桶，去年达到了创纪录的68%，占全球库存估计增幅总计13.9亿桶。在失踪桶的神秘之外，欧佩克+的减产努力卓有成效，美国页岩油生产商这一次对恢复增长模式持谨慎态度，尤其是因为油价。</blockquote> In this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and&nbsp;Energy Aspects&nbsp;all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada&nbsp;told&nbsp;Bloomberg.<blockquote>在这种背景下，本周早些时候美国银行、Socar Trading和Energy Aspects都表示布伦特原油价格可能在未来两年内升至100美元也就不足为奇了。据阿塞拜疆石油营销公司Socar Trading称，由于再平衡的基本面，价格正在上涨，到夏季，布伦特原油价格可能会达到每桶80美元。该公司首席交易官Hayal Ahmadzada告诉彭博社，由于供应仍然紧张，价格可能会进一步攀升至每桶100美元。</blockquote> Energy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.<blockquote>另一方面，能源方面阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)将经济刺激视为预期价格上涨的主要原因。</blockquote> “It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.<blockquote>“这是一个期货市场，我们总是对未来、现在将要发生的事情进行折扣。这就是价格现在上涨的原因，”森在接受彭博社监测采访时表示。“我们一直呼吁2022年油价上涨80美元。考虑到系统中的流动性，现在可能是100美元。我不排除这种可能性，”她补充道。</blockquote> Of course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.<blockquote>当然，在中国以外，需求反弹的预期尚未实现，此外还有沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和伊朗即将增加产量的问题。由于美国产量仍然低迷，这些可能不会立即影响价格。但每天增加几百万桶肯定会施加一些压力。</blockquote> Then there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is&nbsp;set to discuss&nbsp;a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.<blockquote>然后是石油输出国组织的最新消息：除了沙特阿拉伯取消3月份自愿减产100万桶/日之外，该组织还将讨论集体增产。然而，如果达成一致，增幅将不大，为50万桶/日。这与欧佩克+1月份恢复的产量相同，总体减产减少了720万桶/日，不包括沙特阿拉伯单方面的额外减产。</blockquote> This means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible&nbsp;return&nbsp;of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.<blockquote>这意味着到4月份，该组织的日产量可能会比现在多150万桶，这还不包括伊朗石油可能重返市场。这可能会干扰近期的价格预期，但到明年，新生产投资不足的影响将变得更加明显，从而刺激价格上涨。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1606109400967","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nOilprice2021-02-26 11:28\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nOil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.<blockquote>油价修正开始时很谨慎：一些银行认为布伦特原油今年的平均价格为每桶65美元，而其他银行则更大胆地预测，石油基准可能会攀升至每桶65美元。就在几个月前，鉴于新冠肺炎疫苗的缓慢推出、石油供应持续过剩以及冠状病毒变种在世界不同地区出现的报道，威胁着新的感染浪潮，这些预测对环境来说听起来相当乐观。</blockquote> Now, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.<blockquote>现在，银行和交易员正在谈论每桶100美元的布伦特原油。当然，造成这种情况的一个很大原因是本月早些时候德克萨斯州冻结导致美国石油产量暴跌。这甚至比去年疫情导致的产量下降还要严重，而且需要一段时间才能恢复——如果完全恢复的话。</blockquote> Yet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.<blockquote>然而，一些关键市场的需求也在稳步复苏，尤其是中国。这种复苏在很大程度上抵消了美国等其他大型消费国缓慢恢复的石油需求，并帮助推高了价格。</blockquote> Then, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.<blockquote>当然，为了应对危机，政府向世界各地的经济体注入了刺激措施。数万亿美元已投入企业和家庭，希望这将有助于尽快让GDP重回增长轨道。美国再次对石油情绪的变化至关重要：在乔·拜登总统提出1.9万亿美元的刺激计划后，油价预测迅速修正。</blockquote> The package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.<blockquote>该方案仍在辩论中，最终可能会比最初提议的规模更小。但在石油方面，它已经完成了它的工作。银行、美联储和财政部都预计，由于这种刺激措施，经济将迅速复苏，而随着人们开始更多地旅行，快速复苏将不可避免地包括石油需求的反弹。</blockquote> Meanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal&nbsp;recently wrote an&nbsp;analysis&nbsp;of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.<blockquote>与此同时，全球石油库存正在下降，尽管并非所有原因都很清楚。The华尔街日报最近写了一篇关于所谓失踪桶的分析，即不知何故被库存追踪者发现的石油桶，去年达到了创纪录的68%，占全球库存估计增幅总计13.9亿桶。在失踪桶的神秘之外，欧佩克+的减产努力卓有成效，美国页岩油生产商这一次对恢复增长模式持谨慎态度，尤其是因为油价。</blockquote> In this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and&nbsp;Energy Aspects&nbsp;all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada&nbsp;told&nbsp;Bloomberg.<blockquote>在这种背景下，本周早些时候美国银行、Socar Trading和Energy Aspects都表示布伦特原油价格可能在未来两年内升至100美元也就不足为奇了。据阿塞拜疆石油营销公司Socar Trading称，由于再平衡的基本面，价格正在上涨，到夏季，布伦特原油价格可能会达到每桶80美元。该公司首席交易官Hayal Ahmadzada告诉彭博社，由于供应仍然紧张，价格可能会进一步攀升至每桶100美元。</blockquote> Energy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.<blockquote>另一方面，能源方面阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)将经济刺激视为预期价格上涨的主要原因。</blockquote> “It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.<blockquote>“这是一个期货市场，我们总是对未来、现在将要发生的事情进行折扣。这就是价格现在上涨的原因，”森在接受彭博社监测采访时表示。“我们一直呼吁2022年油价上涨80美元。考虑到系统中的流动性，现在可能是100美元。我不排除这种可能性，”她补充道。</blockquote> Of course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.<blockquote>当然，在中国以外，需求反弹的预期尚未实现，此外还有沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和伊朗即将增加产量的问题。由于美国产量仍然低迷，这些可能不会立即影响价格。但每天增加几百万桶肯定会施加一些压力。</blockquote> Then there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is&nbsp;set to discuss&nbsp;a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.<blockquote>然后是石油输出国组织的最新消息：除了沙特阿拉伯取消3月份自愿减产100万桶/日之外，该组织还将讨论集体增产。然而，如果达成一致，增幅将不大，为50万桶/日。这与欧佩克+1月份恢复的产量相同，总体减产减少了720万桶/日，不包括沙特阿拉伯单方面的额外减产。</blockquote> This means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible&nbsp;return&nbsp;of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.<blockquote>这意味着到4月份，该组织的日产量可能会比现在多150万桶，这还不包括伊朗石油可能重返市场。这可能会干扰近期的价格预期，但到明年，新生产投资不足的影响将变得更加明显，从而刺激价格上涨。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-High-Can-Oil-Really-Go.html\">Oilprice</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-High-Can-Oil-Really-Go.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137629357","content_text":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.\nNow, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.\nYet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.\nThen, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.\nThe package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.\nMeanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal recently wrote an analysis of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.\nIn this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and Energy Aspects all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada told Bloomberg.\nEnergy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.\n“It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.\nOf course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.\nThen there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is set to discuss a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.\nThis means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible return of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":368698630,"gmtCreate":1614314871120,"gmtModify":1703476242268,"author":{"id":"3572235673675008","authorId":"3572235673675008","name":"LEEQF","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ead66a2c538631d15658309f808c7d40","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572235673675008","authorIdStr":"3572235673675008"},"htmlText":"Probably not as high as before anymore.","listText":"Probably not as high as before anymore.","text":"Probably not as high as before anymore.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368698630","repostId":1137629357,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137629357","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614310123,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137629357?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-26 11:28","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"How High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137629357","media":"Oilprice","summary":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year,","content":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.<blockquote>油价修正开始时很谨慎：一些银行认为布伦特原油今年的平均价格为每桶65美元，而其他银行则更大胆地预测，石油基准可能会攀升至每桶65美元。就在几个月前，鉴于新冠肺炎疫苗的缓慢推出、石油供应持续过剩以及冠状病毒变种在世界不同地区出现的报道，威胁着新的感染浪潮，这些预测对环境来说听起来相当乐观。</blockquote> Now, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.<blockquote>现在，银行和交易员正在谈论每桶100美元的布伦特原油。当然，造成这种情况的一个很大原因是本月早些时候德克萨斯州冻结导致美国石油产量暴跌。这甚至比去年疫情导致的产量下降还要严重，而且需要一段时间才能恢复——如果完全恢复的话。</blockquote> Yet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.<blockquote>然而，一些关键市场的需求也在稳步复苏，尤其是中国。这种复苏在很大程度上抵消了美国等其他大型消费国缓慢恢复的石油需求，并帮助推高了价格。</blockquote> Then, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.<blockquote>当然，为了应对危机，政府向世界各地的经济体注入了刺激措施。数万亿美元已投入企业和家庭，希望这将有助于尽快让GDP重回增长轨道。美国再次对石油情绪的变化至关重要：在乔·拜登总统提出1.9万亿美元的刺激计划后，油价预测迅速修正。</blockquote> The package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.<blockquote>该方案仍在辩论中，最终可能会比最初提议的规模更小。但在石油方面，它已经完成了它的工作。银行、美联储和财政部都预计，由于这种刺激措施，经济将迅速复苏，而随着人们开始更多地旅行，快速复苏将不可避免地包括石油需求的反弹。</blockquote> Meanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal&nbsp;recently wrote an&nbsp;analysis&nbsp;of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.<blockquote>与此同时，全球石油库存正在下降，尽管并非所有原因都很清楚。The华尔街日报最近写了一篇关于所谓失踪桶的分析，即不知何故被库存追踪者发现的石油桶，去年达到了创纪录的68%，占全球库存估计增幅总计13.9亿桶。在失踪桶的神秘之外，欧佩克+的减产努力卓有成效，美国页岩油生产商这一次对恢复增长模式持谨慎态度，尤其是因为油价。</blockquote> In this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and&nbsp;Energy Aspects&nbsp;all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada&nbsp;told&nbsp;Bloomberg.<blockquote>在这种背景下，本周早些时候美国银行、Socar Trading和Energy Aspects都表示布伦特原油价格可能在未来两年内升至100美元也就不足为奇了。据阿塞拜疆石油营销公司Socar Trading称，由于再平衡的基本面，价格正在上涨，到夏季，布伦特原油价格可能会达到每桶80美元。该公司首席交易官Hayal Ahmadzada告诉彭博社，由于供应仍然紧张，价格可能会进一步攀升至每桶100美元。</blockquote> Energy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.<blockquote>另一方面，能源方面阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)将经济刺激视为预期价格上涨的主要原因。</blockquote> “It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.<blockquote>“这是一个期货市场，我们总是对未来、现在将要发生的事情进行折扣。这就是价格现在上涨的原因，”森在接受彭博社监测采访时表示。“我们一直呼吁2022年油价上涨80美元。考虑到系统中的流动性，现在可能是100美元。我不排除这种可能性，”她补充道。</blockquote> Of course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.<blockquote>当然，在中国以外，需求反弹的预期尚未实现，此外还有沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和伊朗即将增加产量的问题。由于美国产量仍然低迷，这些可能不会立即影响价格。但每天增加几百万桶肯定会施加一些压力。</blockquote> Then there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is&nbsp;set to discuss&nbsp;a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.<blockquote>然后是石油输出国组织的最新消息：除了沙特阿拉伯取消3月份自愿减产100万桶/日之外，该组织还将讨论集体增产。然而，如果达成一致，增幅将不大，为50万桶/日。这与欧佩克+1月份恢复的产量相同，总体减产减少了720万桶/日，不包括沙特阿拉伯单方面的额外减产。</blockquote> This means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible&nbsp;return&nbsp;of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.<blockquote>这意味着到4月份，该组织的日产量可能会比现在多150万桶，这还不包括伊朗石油可能重返市场。这可能会干扰近期的价格预期，但到明年，新生产投资不足的影响将变得更加明显，从而刺激价格上涨。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1606109400967","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nOilprice2021-02-26 11:28\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nOil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.<blockquote>油价修正开始时很谨慎：一些银行认为布伦特原油今年的平均价格为每桶65美元，而其他银行则更大胆地预测，石油基准可能会攀升至每桶65美元。就在几个月前，鉴于新冠肺炎疫苗的缓慢推出、石油供应持续过剩以及冠状病毒变种在世界不同地区出现的报道，威胁着新的感染浪潮，这些预测对环境来说听起来相当乐观。</blockquote> Now, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.<blockquote>现在，银行和交易员正在谈论每桶100美元的布伦特原油。当然，造成这种情况的一个很大原因是本月早些时候德克萨斯州冻结导致美国石油产量暴跌。这甚至比去年疫情导致的产量下降还要严重，而且需要一段时间才能恢复——如果完全恢复的话。</blockquote> Yet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.<blockquote>然而，一些关键市场的需求也在稳步复苏，尤其是中国。这种复苏在很大程度上抵消了美国等其他大型消费国缓慢恢复的石油需求，并帮助推高了价格。</blockquote> Then, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.<blockquote>当然，为了应对危机，政府向世界各地的经济体注入了刺激措施。数万亿美元已投入企业和家庭，希望这将有助于尽快让GDP重回增长轨道。美国再次对石油情绪的变化至关重要：在乔·拜登总统提出1.9万亿美元的刺激计划后，油价预测迅速修正。</blockquote> The package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.<blockquote>该方案仍在辩论中，最终可能会比最初提议的规模更小。但在石油方面，它已经完成了它的工作。银行、美联储和财政部都预计，由于这种刺激措施，经济将迅速复苏，而随着人们开始更多地旅行，快速复苏将不可避免地包括石油需求的反弹。</blockquote> Meanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal&nbsp;recently wrote an&nbsp;analysis&nbsp;of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.<blockquote>与此同时，全球石油库存正在下降，尽管并非所有原因都很清楚。The华尔街日报最近写了一篇关于所谓失踪桶的分析，即不知何故被库存追踪者发现的石油桶，去年达到了创纪录的68%，占全球库存估计增幅总计13.9亿桶。在失踪桶的神秘之外，欧佩克+的减产努力卓有成效，美国页岩油生产商这一次对恢复增长模式持谨慎态度，尤其是因为油价。</blockquote> In this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and&nbsp;Energy Aspects&nbsp;all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada&nbsp;told&nbsp;Bloomberg.<blockquote>在这种背景下，本周早些时候美国银行、Socar Trading和Energy Aspects都表示布伦特原油价格可能在未来两年内升至100美元也就不足为奇了。据阿塞拜疆石油营销公司Socar Trading称，由于再平衡的基本面，价格正在上涨，到夏季，布伦特原油价格可能会达到每桶80美元。该公司首席交易官Hayal Ahmadzada告诉彭博社，由于供应仍然紧张，价格可能会进一步攀升至每桶100美元。</blockquote> Energy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.<blockquote>另一方面，能源方面阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)将经济刺激视为预期价格上涨的主要原因。</blockquote> “It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.<blockquote>“这是一个期货市场，我们总是对未来、现在将要发生的事情进行折扣。这就是价格现在上涨的原因，”森在接受彭博社监测采访时表示。“我们一直呼吁2022年油价上涨80美元。考虑到系统中的流动性，现在可能是100美元。我不排除这种可能性，”她补充道。</blockquote> Of course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.<blockquote>当然，在中国以外，需求反弹的预期尚未实现，此外还有沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和伊朗即将增加产量的问题。由于美国产量仍然低迷，这些可能不会立即影响价格。但每天增加几百万桶肯定会施加一些压力。</blockquote> Then there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is&nbsp;set to discuss&nbsp;a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.<blockquote>然后是石油输出国组织的最新消息：除了沙特阿拉伯取消3月份自愿减产100万桶/日之外，该组织还将讨论集体增产。然而，如果达成一致，增幅将不大，为50万桶/日。这与欧佩克+1月份恢复的产量相同，总体减产减少了720万桶/日，不包括沙特阿拉伯单方面的额外减产。</blockquote> This means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible&nbsp;return&nbsp;of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.<blockquote>这意味着到4月份，该组织的日产量可能会比现在多150万桶，这还不包括伊朗石油可能重返市场。这可能会干扰近期的价格预期，但到明年，新生产投资不足的影响将变得更加明显，从而刺激价格上涨。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-High-Can-Oil-Really-Go.html\">Oilprice</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-High-Can-Oil-Really-Go.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137629357","content_text":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.\nNow, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.\nYet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.\nThen, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.\nThe package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.\nMeanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal recently wrote an analysis of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.\nIn this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and Energy Aspects all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada told Bloomberg.\nEnergy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.\n“It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.\nOf course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.\nThen there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is set to discuss a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.\nThis means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible return of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":368606109,"gmtCreate":1614314150601,"gmtModify":1703476228921,"author":{"id":"3574749287543892","authorId":"3574749287543892","name":"AntLiew","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14dc4e36e90cdfc60979ceb077d41331","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574749287543892","authorIdStr":"3574749287543892"},"htmlText":"Prices hope to drop","listText":"Prices hope to drop","text":"Prices hope to drop","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368606109","repostId":1137629357,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137629357","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614310123,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137629357?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-26 11:28","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"How High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137629357","media":"Oilprice","summary":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year,","content":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.<blockquote>油价修正开始时很谨慎：一些银行认为布伦特原油今年的平均价格为每桶65美元，而其他银行则更大胆地预测，石油基准可能会攀升至每桶65美元。就在几个月前，鉴于新冠肺炎疫苗的缓慢推出、石油供应持续过剩以及冠状病毒变种在世界不同地区出现的报道，威胁着新的感染浪潮，这些预测对环境来说听起来相当乐观。</blockquote> Now, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.<blockquote>现在，银行和交易员正在谈论每桶100美元的布伦特原油。当然，造成这种情况的一个很大原因是本月早些时候德克萨斯州冻结导致美国石油产量暴跌。这甚至比去年疫情导致的产量下降还要严重，而且需要一段时间才能恢复——如果完全恢复的话。</blockquote> Yet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.<blockquote>然而，一些关键市场的需求也在稳步复苏，尤其是中国。这种复苏在很大程度上抵消了美国等其他大型消费国缓慢恢复的石油需求，并帮助推高了价格。</blockquote> Then, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.<blockquote>当然，为了应对危机，政府向世界各地的经济体注入了刺激措施。数万亿美元已投入企业和家庭，希望这将有助于尽快让GDP重回增长轨道。美国再次对石油情绪的变化至关重要：在乔·拜登总统提出1.9万亿美元的刺激计划后，油价预测迅速修正。</blockquote> The package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.<blockquote>该方案仍在辩论中，最终可能会比最初提议的规模更小。但在石油方面，它已经完成了它的工作。银行、美联储和财政部都预计，由于这种刺激措施，经济将迅速复苏，而随着人们开始更多地旅行，快速复苏将不可避免地包括石油需求的反弹。</blockquote> Meanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal&nbsp;recently wrote an&nbsp;analysis&nbsp;of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.<blockquote>与此同时，全球石油库存正在下降，尽管并非所有原因都很清楚。The华尔街日报最近写了一篇关于所谓失踪桶的分析，即不知何故被库存追踪者发现的石油桶，去年达到了创纪录的68%，占全球库存估计增幅总计13.9亿桶。在失踪桶的神秘之外，欧佩克+的减产努力卓有成效，美国页岩油生产商这一次对恢复增长模式持谨慎态度，尤其是因为油价。</blockquote> In this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and&nbsp;Energy Aspects&nbsp;all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada&nbsp;told&nbsp;Bloomberg.<blockquote>在这种背景下，本周早些时候美国银行、Socar Trading和Energy Aspects都表示布伦特原油价格可能在未来两年内升至100美元也就不足为奇了。据阿塞拜疆石油营销公司Socar Trading称，由于再平衡的基本面，价格正在上涨，到夏季，布伦特原油价格可能会达到每桶80美元。该公司首席交易官Hayal Ahmadzada告诉彭博社，由于供应仍然紧张，价格可能会进一步攀升至每桶100美元。</blockquote> Energy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.<blockquote>另一方面，能源方面阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)将经济刺激视为预期价格上涨的主要原因。</blockquote> “It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.<blockquote>“这是一个期货市场，我们总是对未来、现在将要发生的事情进行折扣。这就是价格现在上涨的原因，”森在接受彭博社监测采访时表示。“我们一直呼吁2022年油价上涨80美元。考虑到系统中的流动性，现在可能是100美元。我不排除这种可能性，”她补充道。</blockquote> Of course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.<blockquote>当然，在中国以外，需求反弹的预期尚未实现，此外还有沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和伊朗即将增加产量的问题。由于美国产量仍然低迷，这些可能不会立即影响价格。但每天增加几百万桶肯定会施加一些压力。</blockquote> Then there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is&nbsp;set to discuss&nbsp;a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.<blockquote>然后是石油输出国组织的最新消息：除了沙特阿拉伯取消3月份自愿减产100万桶/日之外，该组织还将讨论集体增产。然而，如果达成一致，增幅将不大，为50万桶/日。这与欧佩克+1月份恢复的产量相同，总体减产减少了720万桶/日，不包括沙特阿拉伯单方面的额外减产。</blockquote> This means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible&nbsp;return&nbsp;of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.<blockquote>这意味着到4月份，该组织的日产量可能会比现在多150万桶，这还不包括伊朗石油可能重返市场。这可能会干扰近期的价格预期，但到明年，新生产投资不足的影响将变得更加明显，从而刺激价格上涨。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1606109400967","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nOilprice2021-02-26 11:28\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nOil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.<blockquote>油价修正开始时很谨慎：一些银行认为布伦特原油今年的平均价格为每桶65美元，而其他银行则更大胆地预测，石油基准可能会攀升至每桶65美元。就在几个月前，鉴于新冠肺炎疫苗的缓慢推出、石油供应持续过剩以及冠状病毒变种在世界不同地区出现的报道，威胁着新的感染浪潮，这些预测对环境来说听起来相当乐观。</blockquote> Now, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.<blockquote>现在，银行和交易员正在谈论每桶100美元的布伦特原油。当然，造成这种情况的一个很大原因是本月早些时候德克萨斯州冻结导致美国石油产量暴跌。这甚至比去年疫情导致的产量下降还要严重，而且需要一段时间才能恢复——如果完全恢复的话。</blockquote> Yet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.<blockquote>然而，一些关键市场的需求也在稳步复苏，尤其是中国。这种复苏在很大程度上抵消了美国等其他大型消费国缓慢恢复的石油需求，并帮助推高了价格。</blockquote> Then, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.<blockquote>当然，为了应对危机，政府向世界各地的经济体注入了刺激措施。数万亿美元已投入企业和家庭，希望这将有助于尽快让GDP重回增长轨道。美国再次对石油情绪的变化至关重要：在乔·拜登总统提出1.9万亿美元的刺激计划后，油价预测迅速修正。</blockquote> The package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.<blockquote>该方案仍在辩论中，最终可能会比最初提议的规模更小。但在石油方面，它已经完成了它的工作。银行、美联储和财政部都预计，由于这种刺激措施，经济将迅速复苏，而随着人们开始更多地旅行，快速复苏将不可避免地包括石油需求的反弹。</blockquote> Meanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal&nbsp;recently wrote an&nbsp;analysis&nbsp;of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.<blockquote>与此同时，全球石油库存正在下降，尽管并非所有原因都很清楚。The华尔街日报最近写了一篇关于所谓失踪桶的分析，即不知何故被库存追踪者发现的石油桶，去年达到了创纪录的68%，占全球库存估计增幅总计13.9亿桶。在失踪桶的神秘之外，欧佩克+的减产努力卓有成效，美国页岩油生产商这一次对恢复增长模式持谨慎态度，尤其是因为油价。</blockquote> In this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and&nbsp;Energy Aspects&nbsp;all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada&nbsp;told&nbsp;Bloomberg.<blockquote>在这种背景下，本周早些时候美国银行、Socar Trading和Energy Aspects都表示布伦特原油价格可能在未来两年内升至100美元也就不足为奇了。据阿塞拜疆石油营销公司Socar Trading称，由于再平衡的基本面，价格正在上涨，到夏季，布伦特原油价格可能会达到每桶80美元。该公司首席交易官Hayal Ahmadzada告诉彭博社，由于供应仍然紧张，价格可能会进一步攀升至每桶100美元。</blockquote> Energy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.<blockquote>另一方面，能源方面阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)将经济刺激视为预期价格上涨的主要原因。</blockquote> “It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.<blockquote>“这是一个期货市场，我们总是对未来、现在将要发生的事情进行折扣。这就是价格现在上涨的原因，”森在接受彭博社监测采访时表示。“我们一直呼吁2022年油价上涨80美元。考虑到系统中的流动性，现在可能是100美元。我不排除这种可能性，”她补充道。</blockquote> Of course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.<blockquote>当然，在中国以外，需求反弹的预期尚未实现，此外还有沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和伊朗即将增加产量的问题。由于美国产量仍然低迷，这些可能不会立即影响价格。但每天增加几百万桶肯定会施加一些压力。</blockquote> Then there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is&nbsp;set to discuss&nbsp;a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.<blockquote>然后是石油输出国组织的最新消息：除了沙特阿拉伯取消3月份自愿减产100万桶/日之外，该组织还将讨论集体增产。然而，如果达成一致，增幅将不大，为50万桶/日。这与欧佩克+1月份恢复的产量相同，总体减产减少了720万桶/日，不包括沙特阿拉伯单方面的额外减产。</blockquote> This means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible&nbsp;return&nbsp;of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.<blockquote>这意味着到4月份，该组织的日产量可能会比现在多150万桶，这还不包括伊朗石油可能重返市场。这可能会干扰近期的价格预期，但到明年，新生产投资不足的影响将变得更加明显，从而刺激价格上涨。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-High-Can-Oil-Really-Go.html\">Oilprice</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-High-Can-Oil-Really-Go.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137629357","content_text":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.\nNow, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.\nYet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.\nThen, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.\nThe package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.\nMeanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal recently wrote an analysis of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.\nIn this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and Energy Aspects all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada told Bloomberg.\nEnergy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.\n“It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.\nOf course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.\nThen there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is set to discuss a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.\nThis means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible return of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":368875696,"gmtCreate":1614313478415,"gmtModify":1703476217273,"author":{"id":"3568120328839040","authorId":"3568120328839040","name":"Nicklee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/726542c1c77a9195242b80be5a58e00a","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3568120328839040","authorIdStr":"3568120328839040"},"htmlText":"Like and comment please","listText":"Like and comment please","text":"Like and comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368875696","repostId":1137629357,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137629357","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614310123,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137629357?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-26 11:28","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"How High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137629357","media":"Oilprice","summary":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year,","content":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.<blockquote>油价修正开始时很谨慎：一些银行认为布伦特原油今年的平均价格为每桶65美元，而其他银行则更大胆地预测，石油基准可能会攀升至每桶65美元。就在几个月前，鉴于新冠肺炎疫苗的缓慢推出、石油供应持续过剩以及冠状病毒变种在世界不同地区出现的报道，威胁着新的感染浪潮，这些预测对环境来说听起来相当乐观。</blockquote> Now, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.<blockquote>现在，银行和交易员正在谈论每桶100美元的布伦特原油。当然，造成这种情况的一个很大原因是本月早些时候德克萨斯州冻结导致美国石油产量暴跌。这甚至比去年疫情导致的产量下降还要严重，而且需要一段时间才能恢复——如果完全恢复的话。</blockquote> Yet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.<blockquote>然而，一些关键市场的需求也在稳步复苏，尤其是中国。这种复苏在很大程度上抵消了美国等其他大型消费国缓慢恢复的石油需求，并帮助推高了价格。</blockquote> Then, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.<blockquote>当然，为了应对危机，政府向世界各地的经济体注入了刺激措施。数万亿美元已投入企业和家庭，希望这将有助于尽快让GDP重回增长轨道。美国再次对石油情绪的变化至关重要：在乔·拜登总统提出1.9万亿美元的刺激计划后，油价预测迅速修正。</blockquote> The package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.<blockquote>该方案仍在辩论中，最终可能会比最初提议的规模更小。但在石油方面，它已经完成了它的工作。银行、美联储和财政部都预计，由于这种刺激措施，经济将迅速复苏，而随着人们开始更多地旅行，快速复苏将不可避免地包括石油需求的反弹。</blockquote> Meanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal&nbsp;recently wrote an&nbsp;analysis&nbsp;of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.<blockquote>与此同时，全球石油库存正在下降，尽管并非所有原因都很清楚。The华尔街日报最近写了一篇关于所谓失踪桶的分析，即不知何故被库存追踪者发现的石油桶，去年达到了创纪录的68%，占全球库存估计增幅总计13.9亿桶。在失踪桶的神秘之外，欧佩克+的减产努力卓有成效，美国页岩油生产商这一次对恢复增长模式持谨慎态度，尤其是因为油价。</blockquote> In this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and&nbsp;Energy Aspects&nbsp;all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada&nbsp;told&nbsp;Bloomberg.<blockquote>在这种背景下，本周早些时候美国银行、Socar Trading和Energy Aspects都表示布伦特原油价格可能在未来两年内升至100美元也就不足为奇了。据阿塞拜疆石油营销公司Socar Trading称，由于再平衡的基本面，价格正在上涨，到夏季，布伦特原油价格可能会达到每桶80美元。该公司首席交易官Hayal Ahmadzada告诉彭博社，由于供应仍然紧张，价格可能会进一步攀升至每桶100美元。</blockquote> Energy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.<blockquote>另一方面，能源方面阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)将经济刺激视为预期价格上涨的主要原因。</blockquote> “It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.<blockquote>“这是一个期货市场，我们总是对未来、现在将要发生的事情进行折扣。这就是价格现在上涨的原因，”森在接受彭博社监测采访时表示。“我们一直呼吁2022年油价上涨80美元。考虑到系统中的流动性，现在可能是100美元。我不排除这种可能性，”她补充道。</blockquote> Of course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.<blockquote>当然，在中国以外，需求反弹的预期尚未实现，此外还有沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和伊朗即将增加产量的问题。由于美国产量仍然低迷，这些可能不会立即影响价格。但每天增加几百万桶肯定会施加一些压力。</blockquote> Then there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is&nbsp;set to discuss&nbsp;a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.<blockquote>然后是石油输出国组织的最新消息：除了沙特阿拉伯取消3月份自愿减产100万桶/日之外，该组织还将讨论集体增产。然而，如果达成一致，增幅将不大，为50万桶/日。这与欧佩克+1月份恢复的产量相同，总体减产减少了720万桶/日，不包括沙特阿拉伯单方面的额外减产。</blockquote> This means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible&nbsp;return&nbsp;of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.<blockquote>这意味着到4月份，该组织的日产量可能会比现在多150万桶，这还不包括伊朗石油可能重返市场。这可能会干扰近期的价格预期，但到明年，新生产投资不足的影响将变得更加明显，从而刺激价格上涨。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1606109400967","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nOilprice2021-02-26 11:28\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nOil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.<blockquote>油价修正开始时很谨慎：一些银行认为布伦特原油今年的平均价格为每桶65美元，而其他银行则更大胆地预测，石油基准可能会攀升至每桶65美元。就在几个月前，鉴于新冠肺炎疫苗的缓慢推出、石油供应持续过剩以及冠状病毒变种在世界不同地区出现的报道，威胁着新的感染浪潮，这些预测对环境来说听起来相当乐观。</blockquote> Now, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.<blockquote>现在，银行和交易员正在谈论每桶100美元的布伦特原油。当然，造成这种情况的一个很大原因是本月早些时候德克萨斯州冻结导致美国石油产量暴跌。这甚至比去年疫情导致的产量下降还要严重，而且需要一段时间才能恢复——如果完全恢复的话。</blockquote> Yet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.<blockquote>然而，一些关键市场的需求也在稳步复苏，尤其是中国。这种复苏在很大程度上抵消了美国等其他大型消费国缓慢恢复的石油需求，并帮助推高了价格。</blockquote> Then, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.<blockquote>当然，为了应对危机，政府向世界各地的经济体注入了刺激措施。数万亿美元已投入企业和家庭，希望这将有助于尽快让GDP重回增长轨道。美国再次对石油情绪的变化至关重要：在乔·拜登总统提出1.9万亿美元的刺激计划后，油价预测迅速修正。</blockquote> The package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.<blockquote>该方案仍在辩论中，最终可能会比最初提议的规模更小。但在石油方面，它已经完成了它的工作。银行、美联储和财政部都预计，由于这种刺激措施，经济将迅速复苏，而随着人们开始更多地旅行，快速复苏将不可避免地包括石油需求的反弹。</blockquote> Meanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal&nbsp;recently wrote an&nbsp;analysis&nbsp;of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.<blockquote>与此同时，全球石油库存正在下降，尽管并非所有原因都很清楚。The华尔街日报最近写了一篇关于所谓失踪桶的分析，即不知何故被库存追踪者发现的石油桶，去年达到了创纪录的68%，占全球库存估计增幅总计13.9亿桶。在失踪桶的神秘之外，欧佩克+的减产努力卓有成效，美国页岩油生产商这一次对恢复增长模式持谨慎态度，尤其是因为油价。</blockquote> In this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and&nbsp;Energy Aspects&nbsp;all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada&nbsp;told&nbsp;Bloomberg.<blockquote>在这种背景下，本周早些时候美国银行、Socar Trading和Energy Aspects都表示布伦特原油价格可能在未来两年内升至100美元也就不足为奇了。据阿塞拜疆石油营销公司Socar Trading称，由于再平衡的基本面，价格正在上涨，到夏季，布伦特原油价格可能会达到每桶80美元。该公司首席交易官Hayal Ahmadzada告诉彭博社，由于供应仍然紧张，价格可能会进一步攀升至每桶100美元。</blockquote> Energy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.<blockquote>另一方面，能源方面阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)将经济刺激视为预期价格上涨的主要原因。</blockquote> “It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.<blockquote>“这是一个期货市场，我们总是对未来、现在将要发生的事情进行折扣。这就是价格现在上涨的原因，”森在接受彭博社监测采访时表示。“我们一直呼吁2022年油价上涨80美元。考虑到系统中的流动性，现在可能是100美元。我不排除这种可能性，”她补充道。</blockquote> Of course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.<blockquote>当然，在中国以外，需求反弹的预期尚未实现，此外还有沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和伊朗即将增加产量的问题。由于美国产量仍然低迷，这些可能不会立即影响价格。但每天增加几百万桶肯定会施加一些压力。</blockquote> Then there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is&nbsp;set to discuss&nbsp;a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.<blockquote>然后是石油输出国组织的最新消息：除了沙特阿拉伯取消3月份自愿减产100万桶/日之外，该组织还将讨论集体增产。然而，如果达成一致，增幅将不大，为50万桶/日。这与欧佩克+1月份恢复的产量相同，总体减产减少了720万桶/日，不包括沙特阿拉伯单方面的额外减产。</blockquote> This means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible&nbsp;return&nbsp;of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.<blockquote>这意味着到4月份，该组织的日产量可能会比现在多150万桶，这还不包括伊朗石油可能重返市场。这可能会干扰近期的价格预期，但到明年，新生产投资不足的影响将变得更加明显，从而刺激价格上涨。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-High-Can-Oil-Really-Go.html\">Oilprice</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-High-Can-Oil-Really-Go.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137629357","content_text":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.\nNow, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.\nYet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.\nThen, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.\nThe package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.\nMeanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal recently wrote an analysis of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.\nIn this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and Energy Aspects all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada told Bloomberg.\nEnergy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.\n“It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.\nOf course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.\nThen there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is set to discuss a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.\nThis means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible return of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3668185,"gmtCreate":1614314891842,"gmtModify":1635760897062,"authorId":3572235673675008,"author":{"id":3572235673675008,"idStr":"3572235673675008","authorId":3572235673675008,"name":"LEEQF","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ead66a2c538631d15658309f808c7d40","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":368875696,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Yes. im here to comment for u","text":"Yes. im here to comment for u","html":"Yes. im here to comment for u"},{"id":3668243,"gmtCreate":1614315497063,"gmtModify":1635760894338,"authorId":3573173473688350,"author":{"id":3573173473688350,"idStr":"3573173473688350","authorId":3573173473688350,"name":"Hrms","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdf3ca26e4c4cbd1584bfa93a5d32859","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":368875696,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Nice","text":"Nice","html":"Nice"},{"id":3677004,"gmtCreate":1614393945121,"gmtModify":1635760566358,"authorId":3566821013640470,"author":{"id":3566821013640470,"idStr":"3566821013640470","authorId":3566821013640470,"name":"Jazling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85e0a83573d9307f57fca9b2baed72af","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":368875696,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":368879064,"gmtCreate":1614312669158,"gmtModify":1703476207504,"author":{"id":"3574816012215023","authorId":"3574816012215023","name":"xConspire","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72bfc09315801b697aa03666ad720218","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574816012215023","authorIdStr":"3574816012215023"},"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368879064","repostId":1137629357,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137629357","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614310123,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137629357?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-26 11:28","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"How High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137629357","media":"Oilprice","summary":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year,","content":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.<blockquote>油价修正开始时很谨慎：一些银行认为布伦特原油今年的平均价格为每桶65美元，而其他银行则更大胆地预测，石油基准可能会攀升至每桶65美元。就在几个月前，鉴于新冠肺炎疫苗的缓慢推出、石油供应持续过剩以及冠状病毒变种在世界不同地区出现的报道，威胁着新的感染浪潮，这些预测对环境来说听起来相当乐观。</blockquote> Now, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.<blockquote>现在，银行和交易员正在谈论每桶100美元的布伦特原油。当然，造成这种情况的一个很大原因是本月早些时候德克萨斯州冻结导致美国石油产量暴跌。这甚至比去年疫情导致的产量下降还要严重，而且需要一段时间才能恢复——如果完全恢复的话。</blockquote> Yet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.<blockquote>然而，一些关键市场的需求也在稳步复苏，尤其是中国。这种复苏在很大程度上抵消了美国等其他大型消费国缓慢恢复的石油需求，并帮助推高了价格。</blockquote> Then, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.<blockquote>当然，为了应对危机，政府向世界各地的经济体注入了刺激措施。数万亿美元已投入企业和家庭，希望这将有助于尽快让GDP重回增长轨道。美国再次对石油情绪的变化至关重要：在乔·拜登总统提出1.9万亿美元的刺激计划后，油价预测迅速修正。</blockquote> The package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.<blockquote>该方案仍在辩论中，最终可能会比最初提议的规模更小。但在石油方面，它已经完成了它的工作。银行、美联储和财政部都预计，由于这种刺激措施，经济将迅速复苏，而随着人们开始更多地旅行，快速复苏将不可避免地包括石油需求的反弹。</blockquote> Meanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal&nbsp;recently wrote an&nbsp;analysis&nbsp;of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.<blockquote>与此同时，全球石油库存正在下降，尽管并非所有原因都很清楚。The华尔街日报最近写了一篇关于所谓失踪桶的分析，即不知何故被库存追踪者发现的石油桶，去年达到了创纪录的68%，占全球库存估计增幅总计13.9亿桶。在失踪桶的神秘之外，欧佩克+的减产努力卓有成效，美国页岩油生产商这一次对恢复增长模式持谨慎态度，尤其是因为油价。</blockquote> In this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and&nbsp;Energy Aspects&nbsp;all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada&nbsp;told&nbsp;Bloomberg.<blockquote>在这种背景下，本周早些时候美国银行、Socar Trading和Energy Aspects都表示布伦特原油价格可能在未来两年内升至100美元也就不足为奇了。据阿塞拜疆石油营销公司Socar Trading称，由于再平衡的基本面，价格正在上涨，到夏季，布伦特原油价格可能会达到每桶80美元。该公司首席交易官Hayal Ahmadzada告诉彭博社，由于供应仍然紧张，价格可能会进一步攀升至每桶100美元。</blockquote> Energy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.<blockquote>另一方面，能源方面阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)将经济刺激视为预期价格上涨的主要原因。</blockquote> “It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.<blockquote>“这是一个期货市场，我们总是对未来、现在将要发生的事情进行折扣。这就是价格现在上涨的原因，”森在接受彭博社监测采访时表示。“我们一直呼吁2022年油价上涨80美元。考虑到系统中的流动性，现在可能是100美元。我不排除这种可能性，”她补充道。</blockquote> Of course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.<blockquote>当然，在中国以外，需求反弹的预期尚未实现，此外还有沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和伊朗即将增加产量的问题。由于美国产量仍然低迷，这些可能不会立即影响价格。但每天增加几百万桶肯定会施加一些压力。</blockquote> Then there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is&nbsp;set to discuss&nbsp;a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.<blockquote>然后是石油输出国组织的最新消息：除了沙特阿拉伯取消3月份自愿减产100万桶/日之外，该组织还将讨论集体增产。然而，如果达成一致，增幅将不大，为50万桶/日。这与欧佩克+1月份恢复的产量相同，总体减产减少了720万桶/日，不包括沙特阿拉伯单方面的额外减产。</blockquote> This means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible&nbsp;return&nbsp;of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.<blockquote>这意味着到4月份，该组织的日产量可能会比现在多150万桶，这还不包括伊朗石油可能重返市场。这可能会干扰近期的价格预期，但到明年，新生产投资不足的影响将变得更加明显，从而刺激价格上涨。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1606109400967","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nOilprice2021-02-26 11:28\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nOil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.<blockquote>油价修正开始时很谨慎：一些银行认为布伦特原油今年的平均价格为每桶65美元，而其他银行则更大胆地预测，石油基准可能会攀升至每桶65美元。就在几个月前，鉴于新冠肺炎疫苗的缓慢推出、石油供应持续过剩以及冠状病毒变种在世界不同地区出现的报道，威胁着新的感染浪潮，这些预测对环境来说听起来相当乐观。</blockquote> Now, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.<blockquote>现在，银行和交易员正在谈论每桶100美元的布伦特原油。当然，造成这种情况的一个很大原因是本月早些时候德克萨斯州冻结导致美国石油产量暴跌。这甚至比去年疫情导致的产量下降还要严重，而且需要一段时间才能恢复——如果完全恢复的话。</blockquote> Yet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.<blockquote>然而，一些关键市场的需求也在稳步复苏，尤其是中国。这种复苏在很大程度上抵消了美国等其他大型消费国缓慢恢复的石油需求，并帮助推高了价格。</blockquote> Then, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.<blockquote>当然，为了应对危机，政府向世界各地的经济体注入了刺激措施。数万亿美元已投入企业和家庭，希望这将有助于尽快让GDP重回增长轨道。美国再次对石油情绪的变化至关重要：在乔·拜登总统提出1.9万亿美元的刺激计划后，油价预测迅速修正。</blockquote> The package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.<blockquote>该方案仍在辩论中，最终可能会比最初提议的规模更小。但在石油方面，它已经完成了它的工作。银行、美联储和财政部都预计，由于这种刺激措施，经济将迅速复苏，而随着人们开始更多地旅行，快速复苏将不可避免地包括石油需求的反弹。</blockquote> Meanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal&nbsp;recently wrote an&nbsp;analysis&nbsp;of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.<blockquote>与此同时，全球石油库存正在下降，尽管并非所有原因都很清楚。The华尔街日报最近写了一篇关于所谓失踪桶的分析，即不知何故被库存追踪者发现的石油桶，去年达到了创纪录的68%，占全球库存估计增幅总计13.9亿桶。在失踪桶的神秘之外，欧佩克+的减产努力卓有成效，美国页岩油生产商这一次对恢复增长模式持谨慎态度，尤其是因为油价。</blockquote> In this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and&nbsp;Energy Aspects&nbsp;all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada&nbsp;told&nbsp;Bloomberg.<blockquote>在这种背景下，本周早些时候美国银行、Socar Trading和Energy Aspects都表示布伦特原油价格可能在未来两年内升至100美元也就不足为奇了。据阿塞拜疆石油营销公司Socar Trading称，由于再平衡的基本面，价格正在上涨，到夏季，布伦特原油价格可能会达到每桶80美元。该公司首席交易官Hayal Ahmadzada告诉彭博社，由于供应仍然紧张，价格可能会进一步攀升至每桶100美元。</blockquote> Energy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.<blockquote>另一方面，能源方面阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)将经济刺激视为预期价格上涨的主要原因。</blockquote> “It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.<blockquote>“这是一个期货市场，我们总是对未来、现在将要发生的事情进行折扣。这就是价格现在上涨的原因，”森在接受彭博社监测采访时表示。“我们一直呼吁2022年油价上涨80美元。考虑到系统中的流动性，现在可能是100美元。我不排除这种可能性，”她补充道。</blockquote> Of course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.<blockquote>当然，在中国以外，需求反弹的预期尚未实现，此外还有沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和伊朗即将增加产量的问题。由于美国产量仍然低迷，这些可能不会立即影响价格。但每天增加几百万桶肯定会施加一些压力。</blockquote> Then there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is&nbsp;set to discuss&nbsp;a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.<blockquote>然后是石油输出国组织的最新消息：除了沙特阿拉伯取消3月份自愿减产100万桶/日之外，该组织还将讨论集体增产。然而，如果达成一致，增幅将不大，为50万桶/日。这与欧佩克+1月份恢复的产量相同，总体减产减少了720万桶/日，不包括沙特阿拉伯单方面的额外减产。</blockquote> This means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible&nbsp;return&nbsp;of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.<blockquote>这意味着到4月份，该组织的日产量可能会比现在多150万桶，这还不包括伊朗石油可能重返市场。这可能会干扰近期的价格预期，但到明年，新生产投资不足的影响将变得更加明显，从而刺激价格上涨。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-High-Can-Oil-Really-Go.html\">Oilprice</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-High-Can-Oil-Really-Go.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137629357","content_text":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.\nNow, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.\nYet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.\nThen, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.\nThe package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.\nMeanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal recently wrote an analysis of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.\nIn this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and Energy Aspects all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada told Bloomberg.\nEnergy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.\n“It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.\nOf course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.\nThen there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is set to discuss a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.\nThis means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible return of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":368845296,"gmtCreate":1614312267915,"gmtModify":1703476202189,"author":{"id":"3574837020922044","authorId":"3574837020922044","name":"Kohct","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/270933c10d62e8a32b4fd6891b8697e7","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574837020922044","authorIdStr":"3574837020922044"},"htmlText":"Gogo","listText":"Gogo","text":"Gogo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368845296","repostId":1137629357,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137629357","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614310123,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137629357?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-26 11:28","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"How High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137629357","media":"Oilprice","summary":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year,","content":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.<blockquote>油价修正开始时很谨慎：一些银行认为布伦特原油今年的平均价格为每桶65美元，而其他银行则更大胆地预测，石油基准可能会攀升至每桶65美元。就在几个月前，鉴于新冠肺炎疫苗的缓慢推出、石油供应持续过剩以及冠状病毒变种在世界不同地区出现的报道，威胁着新的感染浪潮，这些预测对环境来说听起来相当乐观。</blockquote> Now, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.<blockquote>现在，银行和交易员正在谈论每桶100美元的布伦特原油。当然，造成这种情况的一个很大原因是本月早些时候德克萨斯州冻结导致美国石油产量暴跌。这甚至比去年疫情导致的产量下降还要严重，而且需要一段时间才能恢复——如果完全恢复的话。</blockquote> Yet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.<blockquote>然而，一些关键市场的需求也在稳步复苏，尤其是中国。这种复苏在很大程度上抵消了美国等其他大型消费国缓慢恢复的石油需求，并帮助推高了价格。</blockquote> Then, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.<blockquote>当然，为了应对危机，政府向世界各地的经济体注入了刺激措施。数万亿美元已投入企业和家庭，希望这将有助于尽快让GDP重回增长轨道。美国再次对石油情绪的变化至关重要：在乔·拜登总统提出1.9万亿美元的刺激计划后，油价预测迅速修正。</blockquote> The package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.<blockquote>该方案仍在辩论中，最终可能会比最初提议的规模更小。但在石油方面，它已经完成了它的工作。银行、美联储和财政部都预计，由于这种刺激措施，经济将迅速复苏，而随着人们开始更多地旅行，快速复苏将不可避免地包括石油需求的反弹。</blockquote> Meanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal&nbsp;recently wrote an&nbsp;analysis&nbsp;of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.<blockquote>与此同时，全球石油库存正在下降，尽管并非所有原因都很清楚。The华尔街日报最近写了一篇关于所谓失踪桶的分析，即不知何故被库存追踪者发现的石油桶，去年达到了创纪录的68%，占全球库存估计增幅总计13.9亿桶。在失踪桶的神秘之外，欧佩克+的减产努力卓有成效，美国页岩油生产商这一次对恢复增长模式持谨慎态度，尤其是因为油价。</blockquote> In this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and&nbsp;Energy Aspects&nbsp;all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada&nbsp;told&nbsp;Bloomberg.<blockquote>在这种背景下，本周早些时候美国银行、Socar Trading和Energy Aspects都表示布伦特原油价格可能在未来两年内升至100美元也就不足为奇了。据阿塞拜疆石油营销公司Socar Trading称，由于再平衡的基本面，价格正在上涨，到夏季，布伦特原油价格可能会达到每桶80美元。该公司首席交易官Hayal Ahmadzada告诉彭博社，由于供应仍然紧张，价格可能会进一步攀升至每桶100美元。</blockquote> Energy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.<blockquote>另一方面，能源方面阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)将经济刺激视为预期价格上涨的主要原因。</blockquote> “It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.<blockquote>“这是一个期货市场，我们总是对未来、现在将要发生的事情进行折扣。这就是价格现在上涨的原因，”森在接受彭博社监测采访时表示。“我们一直呼吁2022年油价上涨80美元。考虑到系统中的流动性，现在可能是100美元。我不排除这种可能性，”她补充道。</blockquote> Of course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.<blockquote>当然，在中国以外，需求反弹的预期尚未实现，此外还有沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和伊朗即将增加产量的问题。由于美国产量仍然低迷，这些可能不会立即影响价格。但每天增加几百万桶肯定会施加一些压力。</blockquote> Then there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is&nbsp;set to discuss&nbsp;a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.<blockquote>然后是石油输出国组织的最新消息：除了沙特阿拉伯取消3月份自愿减产100万桶/日之外，该组织还将讨论集体增产。然而，如果达成一致，增幅将不大，为50万桶/日。这与欧佩克+1月份恢复的产量相同，总体减产减少了720万桶/日，不包括沙特阿拉伯单方面的额外减产。</blockquote> This means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible&nbsp;return&nbsp;of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.<blockquote>这意味着到4月份，该组织的日产量可能会比现在多150万桶，这还不包括伊朗石油可能重返市场。这可能会干扰近期的价格预期，但到明年，新生产投资不足的影响将变得更加明显，从而刺激价格上涨。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1606109400967","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow High Can Oil Really Go?<blockquote>石油到底能涨到多高？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nOilprice2021-02-26 11:28\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nOil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.<blockquote>油价修正开始时很谨慎：一些银行认为布伦特原油今年的平均价格为每桶65美元，而其他银行则更大胆地预测，石油基准可能会攀升至每桶65美元。就在几个月前，鉴于新冠肺炎疫苗的缓慢推出、石油供应持续过剩以及冠状病毒变种在世界不同地区出现的报道，威胁着新的感染浪潮，这些预测对环境来说听起来相当乐观。</blockquote> Now, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.<blockquote>现在，银行和交易员正在谈论每桶100美元的布伦特原油。当然，造成这种情况的一个很大原因是本月早些时候德克萨斯州冻结导致美国石油产量暴跌。这甚至比去年疫情导致的产量下降还要严重，而且需要一段时间才能恢复——如果完全恢复的话。</blockquote> Yet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.<blockquote>然而，一些关键市场的需求也在稳步复苏，尤其是中国。这种复苏在很大程度上抵消了美国等其他大型消费国缓慢恢复的石油需求，并帮助推高了价格。</blockquote> Then, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.<blockquote>当然，为了应对危机，政府向世界各地的经济体注入了刺激措施。数万亿美元已投入企业和家庭，希望这将有助于尽快让GDP重回增长轨道。美国再次对石油情绪的变化至关重要：在乔·拜登总统提出1.9万亿美元的刺激计划后，油价预测迅速修正。</blockquote> The package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.<blockquote>该方案仍在辩论中，最终可能会比最初提议的规模更小。但在石油方面，它已经完成了它的工作。银行、美联储和财政部都预计，由于这种刺激措施，经济将迅速复苏，而随着人们开始更多地旅行，快速复苏将不可避免地包括石油需求的反弹。</blockquote> Meanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal&nbsp;recently wrote an&nbsp;analysis&nbsp;of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.<blockquote>与此同时，全球石油库存正在下降，尽管并非所有原因都很清楚。The华尔街日报最近写了一篇关于所谓失踪桶的分析，即不知何故被库存追踪者发现的石油桶，去年达到了创纪录的68%，占全球库存估计增幅总计13.9亿桶。在失踪桶的神秘之外，欧佩克+的减产努力卓有成效，美国页岩油生产商这一次对恢复增长模式持谨慎态度，尤其是因为油价。</blockquote> In this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and&nbsp;Energy Aspects&nbsp;all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada&nbsp;told&nbsp;Bloomberg.<blockquote>在这种背景下，本周早些时候美国银行、Socar Trading和Energy Aspects都表示布伦特原油价格可能在未来两年内升至100美元也就不足为奇了。据阿塞拜疆石油营销公司Socar Trading称，由于再平衡的基本面，价格正在上涨，到夏季，布伦特原油价格可能会达到每桶80美元。该公司首席交易官Hayal Ahmadzada告诉彭博社，由于供应仍然紧张，价格可能会进一步攀升至每桶100美元。</blockquote> Energy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.<blockquote>另一方面，能源方面阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)将经济刺激视为预期价格上涨的主要原因。</blockquote> “It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.<blockquote>“这是一个期货市场，我们总是对未来、现在将要发生的事情进行折扣。这就是价格现在上涨的原因，”森在接受彭博社监测采访时表示。“我们一直呼吁2022年油价上涨80美元。考虑到系统中的流动性，现在可能是100美元。我不排除这种可能性，”她补充道。</blockquote> Of course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.<blockquote>当然，在中国以外，需求反弹的预期尚未实现，此外还有沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯和伊朗即将增加产量的问题。由于美国产量仍然低迷，这些可能不会立即影响价格。但每天增加几百万桶肯定会施加一些压力。</blockquote> Then there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is&nbsp;set to discuss&nbsp;a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.<blockquote>然后是石油输出国组织的最新消息：除了沙特阿拉伯取消3月份自愿减产100万桶/日之外，该组织还将讨论集体增产。然而，如果达成一致，增幅将不大，为50万桶/日。这与欧佩克+1月份恢复的产量相同，总体减产减少了720万桶/日，不包括沙特阿拉伯单方面的额外减产。</blockquote> This means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible&nbsp;return&nbsp;of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.<blockquote>这意味着到4月份，该组织的日产量可能会比现在多150万桶，这还不包括伊朗石油可能重返市场。这可能会干扰近期的价格预期，但到明年，新生产投资不足的影响将变得更加明显，从而刺激价格上涨。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-High-Can-Oil-Really-Go.html\">Oilprice</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-High-Can-Oil-Really-Go.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137629357","content_text":"Oil price revisions started cautiously: some banks saw Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel this year, and others, of a bolder nature, predicted that the oil benchmark could climb to $65 a barrel.Just a couple of months ago, these forecasts sounded pretty optimistic for the environment, given the slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, the continuing excess supply of oil, and reports of coronavirus variants emerging in different parts of the world, threatening new infection waves.\nNow, banks and traders are talking about Brent at $100 a barrel. Of course, a big reason for this is the slump in U.S. oil production caused by the Texas Freeze earlier this month. It was even greater than the production decline prompted by the pandemic last year, and it will take a while to recover—if it ever does fully.\nYet demand has also been recovering steadily in some key markets, most notably in China. This recovery has largely offset slow-to-return demand for oil in other large consumers such as the United States and helped push prices higher.\nThen, of course, there has been government stimulus poured into economies around the world in response to the crisis. Trillions of dollars have sunk into businesses and households in hopes this will help set GDP back on the growth path sooner rather than later. Once again, the U.S. has been crucial for the change in oil sentiment: oil price forecast revisions were quick to follow President Joe Biden’s proposal of a $1.9-trillion stimulus package.\nThe package is still being debated, and it might end up smaller than originally proposed. But when it comes to oil, it has done its job. Banks, the Fed, and the Treasury Department all expect a swift economic recovery due to this stimulus, and a swift recovery will invariably include a rebound in oil demand as people start traveling more.\nMeanwhile, global oil stocks are on the decline, even if not all the reasons for that are clear. TheWall Street Journal recently wrote an analysis of the so-called missing barrels, or barrels of oil that somehow slip under the radar of inventory trackers and that last year reached a record high of 68 percent of an estimate global inventory increase totaling 1.39 billion barrels.Outside the mystery of the missing barrels, OPEC+ efforts in production cutting have been fruitful, and U.S. shale producers have this time round been cautious about returning to a growth mode, not least because of oil prices.\nIn this context, it is not at all surprising that earlier this week that Bank of America,Socar Trading, and Energy Aspects all said Brent could rise to $100 over the next two years. According to Socar Trading—Azerbaijan’s oil marketing company—prices are up on the rebalancing fundamentals, and by the summer, Brent could hit $80 a barrel. As supply remains tight, it could climb further to $100 a barrel, the company’s chief trading officer Hayal Ahmadzada told Bloomberg.\nEnergy Aspects Amrita Sen, on the other hand, cited economic stimulus as chief reason for the expected price rally.\n“It’s a futures market, we always discount stuff that’s going to happen in the future, now. That’s why prices are rallying right now,” Sen said, speaking on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve always called for $80 plus oil in 2022. Maybe that is $100 now given how much liquidity there is in the system. I wouldn’t rule that out,” she added.\nOf course, the expectations of a demand rebound have yet to materialize outside China, and then there is the question of additional barrels coming soon from Saudi Arabia, maybe Russia, and likely Iran. With U.S. production still depressed, these may not affect prices right away. But a few million barrels daily more will certainly exert some pressure.\nThen there is the latest from OPEC: the cartel is set to discuss a group increase in production in addition to Saudi Arabia removing its voluntary 1-million-bpd cut from March. The increase, however, will be modest, if agreed, at 500,000 bpd. This is the same amount of production OPEC+ brought back online in January, reducing its overall cut by 7.2 million bpd, excluding Saudi Arabia’s unilateral additional cut.\nThis means that come April, the group could be pumping 1.5 million bpd more than it is pumping now, and this is not including the possible return of Iranian barrels to the market. This may interfere with immediate price expectations, but by next year, the effects of underinvestment in new production will become more obvious, spurring prices higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":52,"commentSize":29,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}