Tesla: Overvalued By 85.26% And Not A Technology Company_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

Tesla: Overvalued By 85.26% And Not A Technology Company

Seeking Alpha2022-05-08

SummaryMake no mistake, Tesla is a phenomenal company that has accomplished the unthinkable as it broke through extreme barriers of entry to disrupt the auto industry.Just because Tesla is a ...

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生肉麵加豬油渣
·2022-05-09
wow only that?
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JemLIm
·2022-05-08
Long article
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hello369
·2022-05-08
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AdrinaChow
·2022-05-08
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The debate regarding Tesla, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:TSLA) valuation continues to be a topic of conversation between the bulls and the bears. Oneside argues that TSLA's financial growth and future prospects, including FSD, insurance, and robotaxis, justify the current $902.12 billion valuations, while others argue that the current financials and cult-like following have led to a massive overvaluation in TSLA's stock.I tip my hat to Elon Musk, as his accomplishments are second to none. When others called him crazy, Mr. Musk chose one of the hardest industries to compete in, started TSLA from the ground up, went to battle against the auto manufacturers, and succeeded. TSLA is one of the rare success stories that has truly shaped an industry, and the barriers of entry that were overcome are astonishing. TSLA didn't have the capital, manufacturing, credibility, or the infrastructure that its competitors did, yet they found a way to succeed. If the odds weren't enough which TSLA faced, they accomplished their goals without a combustible engine and pioneered an entirely new sector within the automotive industry.Just because TSLA is a great company, it doesn't mean TSLA has a great stock, or it isn't overvalued. I am not bearish on TSLA the company because I believe they still have a long runway of growth ahead of them, but I am bearish on the valuation. Prior to leaving a comment on why I am wrong, please read the article and think about the metrics I am citing; then, I will happily discuss any viewpoints about the analysis.Tesla Vs. The World In The Automotive SectorIt feels like TSLA vs. the world whenever TSLA is discussed. Discussing who makes a better automobile is a matter of opinion, and everyone is correct because it's their opinion. If person A thinks TSLA makes the best car and person B thinks Mercedes Benz makes the best car, they are both correct. Debating over this is pointless, so let's look at the raw numbers.TSLA has a larger market cap than the combination ofToyota(TM),Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY),Daimler(OTCPK:DDAIF),BMW(OTCPK:BMWYY),General Motors(GM),Ford(F),Honda(HMC),Ferrari(RACE),Nissan(OTCPK:NSANY),Subaru(OTCPK:FUJHY),Volvo(OTCPK:VOLAF), andMazda(OTCPK:MZDAY). TSLA's market cap is currently $986.92 billion, while the combination of these 12 companies is $777.41 billion.Steven FiorilloThe P/S ratio is often cited to justify the valuation. The combination of TM, VWAGY, DDAIF, BMWYY, GM, F, HMC, RACE, NSANY, FUJHY, VOLAF, and MZDAY has generated $1.38 trillion in revenue over the TTM, putting their P/S at 0.56, while TSLA has generated $62.19 billion in revenue and has a 15.87 P/S.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaAs a combined entity, these 12 companies have generated $118.29 billion in net income, while TSLA has produced $8.4 billion.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaTSLA is a great company, but its current valuation has become overly inflated. TSLA's market cap is $209.52 billion larger than these 12 auto manufacturers, yet the combination of the 12 auto manufacturers generates $1.32 trillion more in revenue and $109.89 billion more in net income.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaLooking at the market caps, one would assume that TSLA has a dominant majority over its competitors in auto sales within the U.S. According to the2021 data, TSLA sold 2.02% of all vehicles in the U.S. TSLA's market cap reflects a level of dominance that is non-existent.Realistically, TSLA will have a hard time disrupting the sector further due to the price point of their vehicles. The reality is that, unless TSLA can sell a car that rivals a Honda or Toyota, doubling its market share is going to be a daunting task. It's just math. TSLA doesn't have a product for the masses, and while it may continue to grow in the luxury segment, the amount of growth that can be achieved is limited due to the pricing power of the consumer.www.goodcarbadcar.netTesla Isn't A Technology Company And Shouldn't Be Valued As OneThe valuation rebuttal has always been that TSLA isn't an automobile company, rather, it's a technology company.TeslaPage 23 ofTSLA's Q1 2022 slide deck from their earnings call is their statement of operations. Once again, 100% of TSLA's gross profit and net income are derived from automobiles. Energy generation and storage lose money as it generates $616 million in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $688 million. The same goes for Services and others, as this segment generates $1.279 billion in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $1.286 billion. This doesn't even factor in operating expenses.TSLA manufacturers state of the art automobiles, but this doesn't classify them as a technology company, nor should they be classified as one. Since this is always the rebuttal and technology companies trade at larger earnings multiples, I will compare TSLA to Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), and Meta Platforms (FB) and illustrate why TSLA is still drastically overvalued if the market was still to provide it with a tech multiple.Prior to the comparisons, I want to frame the analysis by providing each company's market cap:AAPL $2.69 TrillionMSFT $2.17 TrillionGOOGL $1.62 TrillionAMZN $1.28 TrillionTSLA $986.92 BillionFB $604.62 BillionI am going to start with growth because this is always the key metric bulls point out. Since the close of 2018, which is 3.25 fiscal years, TSLA has grown its revenue from $21.46 billion to $62.19 billion.This is absolutely remarkable, but it doesn't place TSLA in the upper epsilon of technology companies. Over the same period, FB grew its revenue by $63.83 billion, which is more than what TSLA produced in the TTM. FB grew its revenue by more than what TSLA produces and generates just about double the revenue ($119.67 billion), yet TSLA has a larger market cap. For everyone who has used growth as their investment premise, FB having a market cap that's $382.30 less than TSLA nullifies that aspect of the bull thesis. AMZN's market cap is only $294.33 billion larger than TSLA, yet they generated $477.75 billion in revenue and grew their revenue by $341.76 billion in this period. Using revenue growth for TSLA doesn't support the valuation.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaNext, I will turn to profits because, at the end of the day, businesses are in the business of making money. Once again, TSLA has done a fantastic job of monetizing its business and, in 3.25 short years, has gone from losing -$976 million to make $8.4 billion in the TTM for an increase of $9.38 billion. FB has produced $37.34 billion in profit in the TTM, and its net income grew by $15.23 billion over this period. Using growth doesn't support the valuation when FB has a market cap that's $382.30 less than TSLA and grew its profits in this period by almost double what TSLA has generated in the TTM.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaThe new metric bulls are using in their thesis is TSLA's free cash flow (FCF). Once again, TSLA has done an excellent job, going from -$221 million of FCF in 2018 to $6.93 billion of FCF in the TTM. Many companies would love to grow their annual FCF by $7.15 billion over a 3.25-year period, and this should be applauded.Let's look at FB once again, since TSLA's valuation isn't based on its core segment as an automobile manufacturer. FB has grown its FCF over the previous 3.25 years by $23.45 billion, more than 3x TSLA's growth, and has generated $39.81 billion of FCF in the TTM. FB generated roughly 5.75x more FCF than TSLA and grew its FCF by more than 3x what TSLA produces, yet FB has a market cap that's almost $400 billion less than TSLA. Growth within the financials does not support TSLA's valuation, which is a breath away from $1 trillion.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaToday you're paying a 113.81 P/E for TSLA. Paying a larger multiple for a company that's growing its earnings quickly is normal, but TSLA isn't growing by larger amounts than FB, and FB trades at a 16.66 P/E. I have seen TSLA bulls justify the P/E because of TSLA's growth factor, but this doesn't hold up when FB has grown by larger amounts from larger starting positions and has a P/E that's a fraction of TSLA. Look at AAPL, which is the largest company in the world. AAPL has grown its net income by $56.25 billion and its FCF by $52.3 billion over the past 3.25 years, and its P/E is 26.78. People are blindly paying any multiple the market places on TSLA.TSLA is trading at a 15.38 P/S. The justification for this multiple is difficult to defend while AMZN trades at a P/S of 11.31. AMZN's revenue grew by $341.76 billion over the past 3.25 years while TSLA grew their revenue by $40.73 billion. Instead of an absolute basis, looking at this from a percentage aspect, TSLA grew its revenue by 189.78%, while AMZN's grew by 251.32%. The P/S ratio is not a supporting valuation metric as TSLA is trading at a larger multiple than AMZN yet produced $301.03 billion less in revenue growth compared to AMZN. At the very least, TSLA should trade at a lower P/S multiple than AMZN considering their revenue growth was a fraction of AMZN's.TSLA has done an excellent job monetizing its revenue, delivering exceptional margins, and generating FCF. Now that TSLA is generating billions in FCF, it's been inserted into the bull thesis. FCF is a measure of profitability that excludes the non-cash expenses of the income statement and includes spending on equipment and assets as well as changes in working capital from the balance sheet. FCF could be the most underrated and most important financial metric to look at, as this is the pool of capital that companies can utilize to repay debt, pay dividends, buy back shares, make acquisitions, or reinvest in the business.Every investment is the present value of all future cash flow. This is why investors look at the price to FCF valuation. Investors want to pay the cheapest multiple for a company's FCF. Today, you're paying 142.52x TSLA's FCF. Going back to the FCF section, TSLA grew its FCF by $7.15 billion over the past 3.25 years. FB generated $23.45 billion of FCF in this period, which is 3x the amount TSLA grew, yet FB is trading at a 15.19x multiple on price to FCF.Why on earth would you want to pay 142.52x for TSLA's FCF when you could pay 15.19x for FB, which is growing their FCF by more than 3x the amount that TSLA is growing by? How about AAPL? AAPL grew its FCF by $52.3 billion and trades at a 25.4x price to FCF. If I exclude FB for a moment, should TSLA trade at a larger FCF multiple than GOOGL, which has grown its FCF by $46.15 billion over the past 3.25 years? My answer is no because there is no guarantee that TSLA will ever generate $46.15 billion in annual FCF, let alone the $68.99 billion in FCF that GOOGL generates.So what is a fair price to FCF multiple for TSLA? I don't believe TSLA has earned the right to trade at the same multiples as the rest of big tech considering the levels of FCF they produce. If I stick with the methodology that FB is egregiously undervalued, then TSLA should trade above 15.19x its FCF but lower than the 23.42x multiple GOOGL trades at.I don't want to be overly bearish, so I will place a 21x multiple on TSLA's FCF, which is more than fair considering big tech metrics. A 21x multiple on TSLA's FCF puts its market cap at $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion. It's just math, and if TSLA is going to be valued as a technology company, it needs to be compared to the technology companies with similar market caps.At the very least, there isn't a single reason why TSLA's market cap is larger than FB's. There isn't a single metric that TSLA beats FB in. Based on FB's valuation, if TSLA traded at the same FCF multiple, it would have a market cap of $105.19 billion.TSLA has a gross profit margin of 27.1% ($16.85b / $62.19b) and a profit margin of 13.51% ($8.4b / $62.19b). FB has a gross profit margin of 80.34% ($96.14b / $119.67b) and a profit margin of 31.2% ($37.34b / $119.67b). FB has much wider margins and is growing its revenue by larger amounts. This reinforces my methodology as to why TSLA is grossly overvalued. GOOGL has a gross profit margin of 56.93% ($153.9b / $270.33b) and a profit margin of 27.57% ($74.54b / $270.33b).The chances are incredibly slim that TSLA can double its profit margin to be within striking distance of GOOGL's. TSLA should not trade at a larger FCF, P/E, or P/S multiple than FB or GOOGL. While the market would indicate that I am wrong today, eventually, the hype will wear off, and TSLA will trade at a realistic valuation.TSLA's Future Catalysts Have A Long Way To Go Before Impacting Its Bottom LineThere are three main catalysts people discuss, which include insurance, robotaxis, and FSD.TSLA offers insurance using real-time driving behavior. This is currently available to all Model S, Model 3, Model X, and Model Y owners. The catch is that it's only available in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Ohio, Oregon, Texas, and Virginia as of now.TSLA uses a safety rating score to determine the monthly premium for its vehicles. At the largest premium of $130/mo, this would be $1,560 per year. If TSLA converted 100% of their U.S sales in 2021 as an insurance customer, which I think could be possible if TSLA insurance was available in every state, it would have generated $471.12 million in revenue.We have no idea what the margins would have been, but if the margin was 50%, it would have been an additional $235.56 million in net income in 2021. While this is nothing to sneeze at, an additional $235.56 million in net income hardly moves the needle. This could be a $1 billion top-line revenue segment in the future, but with availability in only 7 states, insurance's $1 billion revenue mark is a long way away.TeslaNext,FSD, for which TSLA has created two subscription models, a $99/mo price point and a $199/mo price point. The problem with FSD is that it doesn't make the vehicle fully autonomous, and you still need a driver to be attentive and alert. While I am not arguing that TSLA's FSD isn't leaps and bounds ahead of the competition, the problem is that it's not exactly a self-driving car.The questions around legality and where you can use it pop into my head, and how many of TSLA's drivers opt for this upgrade. Until there is clear legislation and the technology advances to where vehicles can fully drive a person from point A to B while that person takes a nap or reads, I have a hard time believing enough TSLA owners will spend the extra $199/mo on FSD. If there is somewhere where TSLA produces the numbers about how many owners opt for this package, please let me know, and I will crunch the numbers.Which Features Come With My Subscription?The FSD capability features you receive are based on your configuration and location. Not all features are available in all markets, and features are subject to change.Learn more about Autopilot and Full Self-Driving capability features.Note: These features are designed to become more capable over time; however the currently enabled features do not make the vehicle autonomous. The currently enabled features require a fully attentive driver, who has their hands on the wheel and is prepared to take over at any moment.The last catalyst is Robotaxis which many have commented on in my articles before. We're so far off on Robotaxis that this can't be considered in TSLA's upcoming revenue. I would think major legislation would be needed for Robotaxis to exist, and there is no telling how many years away we are from this.Also, what is the percentage of TSLA owners that would actually allow their vehicle to be used as a Robotaxi? Depending on what the profitability is, I can see people buying TSLAs to enroll them in this program, but, once again, we need to see the economics behind it. I know I am just one opinion, but I would never enroll one of my cars into a robotaxi program because I don't want other people that I don't know in my car. I would think there are many others that have similar viewpoints.The real upcoming catalysts are future revenue growth and entering the Chinese market. In 2021 TSLA grew its YoY revenue by 70.67%, and their off to a great start after Q1 2022. Only time will tell what type of growth rate TSLA can maintain, but too many people are assuming that TSLA will obliterate the competition. Over the next several years, we could see TSLA's growth rate become significantly reduced as more luxury operators put EVs on the road.At TSLA's current margins, they would need to increase their revenue by 444.55% to $276.47 billion to produce the same amount of net income ($37.34b) that FB produces today at their current 13.51% profit margin. Maybe TSLA can get there in the future, but why should TSLA be valued at almost $1 trillion today, considering not a single metric of theirs is similar to FB or GOOGL, and TSLA's growth across any of the sectors isn't larger than FB or GOOGL?Tesla Continues To Dilute Shareholders, And Almost No Shareholders CareDilution kills shareholder value. Look, I am a shareholder of TSLA, and I hate that my shares continue to be diluted. These numbers are split-adjusted that I am using. Over the past decade,TSLA has diluted its shares by 80.93%. This is horrible compared to big tech, yet investors can't buy enough TSLA shares. TSLA finished 2012 with 572.6 million shares and, as of its last filing, had increased its outstanding shares to 1.036 billion shares.This is the equivalent of me taking a pizza, and instead of giving you a slice, cutting another 6.5 slices, then giving you one. The pizza represents TSLA, the company, and they basically turned an 8-slice pie into a 14.5-slice pie, reducing shareholder's ownership and the amount of equity, revenue, and EPS our shares represent.If you want to see what a true shepherd of shareholder value looks like, turn to AAPL. In 2012 AAPL had 26.3 billion shares outstanding. Over the past decade, AAPL has repurchased 10.09 billion shares, reducing its outstanding shares by 38.37%. Every quarter, AAPL is buying back shares and increasing the ownership its shares represent. TSLA, on the other hand, continues to dilute shareholders by increasing shares YOY.I Could Be Completely Wrong, And Tesla Could Continue Growing At These RatesTSLA's vehicle deliveries continue to outpace its growing production. YoY TSLA's deliveries increased by 68% in Q1, adding 125,171 delivered vehicles to its customers. TSLA just began Model Y deliveries from the Austin facility, and production at the Gigafactory in Berlin started in March of 2022. TSLA's Shanghai facility had strong production rates prior to the spike in COVID that resulted in temporary shutdowns. TSLA isn't just focusing on the U.S, they have Europe and China in their sights.EVs accounted for 488,000 sales in the U.S for 2021, and the previous projection was that EVs would account for 670,000 units sold in 2022. Oil has hovered around $100 per barrel and could render the previous projections of 37% increased EV sales domestically for 2022 conservative. TSLA is in a prime position to capitalize on this trend. In 2021 TSLA vehicles accounted for 61.89% of EVs sold in the U.S (301,998 / 488,000).Hypothetically, if the previous projection of 670,000 EV sales for 2022 is accurate and TSLA maintains its current margin, they would sell 414,628 vehicles throughout the U.S in 2022. If gas prices do alter the decision-making process when deciding between a combustible engine or an EV, then TSLA could continue surprising the market with QoQ earnings beats.The U.S has a national goal of reaching 50% of domestic auto sales coming from EVs. In 2021, EVs accounted for 3.26% of total sales in the U.S auto market. Based on U.S auto sales in 2021, annual EV sales would need to grow by 6,989,403 to reach a 50% EV to combustible engine ratio. Hypothetically if U.S auto sales stayed flat but EVs reached 50% of the market in 2030 they would sell 7,477,403 vehicles. If TSLA's dominance in the EV sector was to drop from 61.89% to 15% due to increased competition, they would generate 1,121,610 in sales compared to 301,998 in 2021. When you add in Europe and China, TSLA certainly has the ability to become a top auto manufacturer by sales next decade.Bulls aren't incorrect to be excited about TSLA. The world is moving toward EVs, and TSLA is the crème de la crème. As I said in the beginning, I am bullish about TSLA's future prospects, but I think the valuation today is overinflated. Nobody can predict the future, but I have no doubt that TSLA will continue to grow its sales YoY.The question becomes, how much growth will they be able to achieve YoY? In 2021, TM generated $226.48 billion of revenue and, based on the future of EVs, TSLA certainly could achieve this level of revenue in the future. Based on TSLA's current 13.51% profit margin, if they achieved TM's level of revenue, they would generate $30.59 billion of net income, which would definitely make today's valuation look more realistic.TeslaConclusionYou're probably wondering how I can be a shareholder and be a bear on TSLA's valuation at the same time. It's simple; my wife bought shares of TSLA, which makes me a shareholder. My stance has always been bullish on the company and bearish on the valuation. What Elon Musk and the team at TSLA has accomplished is astonishing, and they deserve nothing but respect.Keep in mind a company and a company's stock are two separate things. TSLA continues to dilute shareholders, and they and the market are valuing TSLA as if it's FB or GOOGL. TSLA is not a technology company; it's an automobile company, as the automotive segments drive 100% of its gross revenue and net income.TSLA is trading at a P/E of 113.81, a P/S of 15.38, and a 142.52x multiple on its FCF. The numbers are drastically inflated as TSLA has no business trading at a larger P/S multiple than AMZN, which trades at 11.31 P/S when it has grown its revenue by $341.76 billion over the previous 3.25 years compared to TSLA's $40.73 billion of revenue growth. TSLA has generated $6.93 billion in FCF over the TTM, while Mr. Market has placed a 142.52x multiple on TSLA due to $7.15 billion FCF growth over the past 3.25 years. FB trades at a 15.19x FCF multiple while growing FCF by $23.45 billion over this period which is more than 3x what TSLA has generated in the TTM.With FB trading at 15.19x FCF, GOOGL at 23.42x FCF, and AAPL at 25.4x FCF, it's hard to justify any number above 20x for TSLA. I think a 21x FCF multiple is generous and that places TSLA at a market cap of $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":616756092,"gmtCreate":1652028156316,"gmtModify":1652028157512,"author":{"id":"3559357742503712","authorId":"3559357742503712","name":"生肉麵加豬油渣","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/797772e5857b1091ed85d4b17fe6201b","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3559357742503712","authorIdStr":"3559357742503712"},"htmlText":"wow only that?&nbsp;","listText":"wow only that?&nbsp;","text":"wow only that?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/616756092","repostId":1131831539,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131831539","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1651980653,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131831539?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-05-08 11:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Overvalued By 85.26% And Not A Technology Company<blockquote>特斯拉：高估85.26%不是科技公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131831539","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryMake no mistake, Tesla is a phenomenal company that has accomplished the unthinkable as it broke through extreme barriers of entry to disrupt the auto industry.Just because Tesla is a successfu","content":"<html><head></head><body>Summary<blockquote><html><head></head><body>总结</body></html></blockquote><ul><li>Make no mistake, Tesla is a phenomenal company that has accomplished the unthinkable as it broke through extreme barriers of entry to disrupt the auto industry.</li><li>Just because Tesla is a successful company that is causing automotive titans to change from combustible engines to EVs doesn&#39;t mean Tesla&#39;s stock is a good investment today.</li><li>100% of gross profit and net income is generated from the automotive sector as Tesla&#39;s other businesses lose money, making them an automobile manufacturing company, not a technology company.</li><li>I compared Tesla&#39;s metrics to the auto industry and big tech and the results are the same, Tesla&#39;s valuation is egregious.</li></ul>It&#39;s rare to find companies that have cult-like followings with loyalists willing to pay any price for its stock. The debate regarding Tesla, Inc.&#39;s (NASDAQ:TSLA) valuation continues to be a topic of conversation between the bulls and the bears. Oneside argues that TSLA&#39;s financial growth and future prospects, including FSD, insurance, and robotaxis, justify the current $902.12 billion valuations, while others argue that the current financials and cult-like following have led to a massive overvaluation in TSLA&#39;s stock.<blockquote><ul><li>毫无疑问，特斯拉是一家非凡的公司，它突破了极端的进入壁垒，颠覆了汽车行业，取得了不可思议的成就。</li><li>仅仅因为特斯拉是一家成功的公司，正在推动汽车巨头从内燃机转向电动汽车，并不意味着特斯拉的股票今天是一项不错的投资。</li><li>由于特斯拉的其他业务都在亏损，100%的毛利润和净利润都来自汽车部门，这使他们成为一家汽车制造公司，而不是一家科技公司。</li><li>我将特斯拉的指标与汽车行业和大型科技公司进行了比较，结果是相同的，特斯拉的估值令人震惊。</li></ul>很少有公司拥有狂热的追随者，忠诚者愿意为其股票支付任何价格。关于特斯拉公司（纳斯达克：TSLA）估值的争论仍然是多头和空头之间的话题。Oneside认为，TSLA的财务增长和未来前景（包括FSD、保险和机器人出租车）证明了当前9021.2亿美元的估值是合理的，而其他人则认为，当前的财务状况和狂热的追随者导致了TSLA股票的大幅高估。</blockquote>I tip my hat to Elon Musk, as his accomplishments are second to none. When others called him crazy, Mr. Musk chose one of the hardest industries to compete in, started TSLA from the ground up, went to battle against the auto manufacturers, and succeeded. TSLA is one of the rare success stories that has truly shaped an industry, and the barriers of entry that were overcome are astonishing. TSLA didn&#39;t have the capital, manufacturing, credibility, or the infrastructure that its competitors did, yet they found a way to succeed. If the odds weren&#39;t enough which TSLA faced, they accomplished their goals without a combustible engine and pioneered an entirely new sector within the automotive industry.<blockquote>我向埃隆·马斯克致敬，因为他的成就是首屈一指的。当别人说他疯了时，马斯克先生选择了一个最难竞争的行业，白手起家创办了特斯拉，与汽车制造商作战，并取得了成功。特斯拉是真正塑造了一个行业的罕见成功故事之一，所克服的进入壁垒令人惊讶。特斯拉不像竞争对手那样拥有资本、制造、信誉或基础设施，但他们找到了成功的方法。如果特斯拉面临的机会还不够，他们在没有燃油发动机的情况下实现了目标，并在汽车行业开创了一个全新的领域。</blockquote>Just because TSLA is a great company, it doesn&#39;t mean TSLA has a great stock, or it isn&#39;t overvalued. I am not bearish on TSLA the company because I believe they still have a long runway of growth ahead of them, but I am bearish on the valuation. Prior to leaving a comment on why I am wrong, please read the article and think about the metrics I am citing; then, I will happily discuss any viewpoints about the analysis.<blockquote>仅仅因为特斯拉是一家伟大的公司，并不意味着特斯拉有一只伟大的股票，或者它没有被高估。我并不看跌特斯拉这家公司，因为我相信他们还有很长的增长之路，但我看跌估值。在评论我为什么错之前，请阅读这篇文章并思考我引用的指标；然后，我会很乐意讨论任何关于分析的观点。</blockquote>Tesla Vs. The World In The Automotive Sector<blockquote>特斯拉与汽车领域的世界</blockquote>It feels like TSLA vs. the world whenever TSLA is discussed. Discussing who makes a better automobile is a matter of opinion, and everyone is correct because it&#39;s their opinion. If person A thinks TSLA makes the best car and person B thinks Mercedes Benz makes the best car, they are both correct. Debating over this is pointless, so let&#39;s look at the raw numbers.<blockquote>每当讨论特斯拉时，感觉就像特斯拉对抗世界。讨论谁制造的汽车更好是见仁见智的问题，每个人都是正确的，因为这是他们的观点。如果A人认为特斯拉制造的汽车最好，B人认为奔驰制造的汽车最好，那么他们都是正确的。争论这个是没有意义的，所以让我们看看原始数据。</blockquote>TSLA has a larger market cap than the combination ofToyota(TM),Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY),Daimler(OTCPK:DDAIF),BMW(OTCPK:BMWYY),General Motors(GM),Ford(F),Honda(HMC),Ferrari(RACE),Nissan(OTCPK:NSANY),Subaru(OTCPK:FUJHY),Volvo(OTCPK:VOLAF), andMazda(OTCPK:MZDAY). TSLA&#39;s market cap is currently $986.92 billion, while the combination of these 12 companies is $777.41 billion.<blockquote>特斯拉的市值比丰田(TM)、大众(OTCPK：VWAGY)、戴姆勒(OTCPK：DDAIF)、宝马(OTCPK：BMWYY)、通用汽车(GM)、福特(F)、本田(HMC)的总和还要大)、法拉利(RACE)、日产(OTCPK：NSANY)、斯巴鲁(OTCPK：FUJHY)、沃尔沃(OTCPK：VOLAF)和马自达(OTCPK：MZDAY)。特斯拉的市值目前为9869.2亿美元，而这12家公司的市值总和为7774.1亿美元。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff930d2442bf282c1bd880cca408eb94\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛</blockquote>The P/S ratio is often cited to justify the valuation. The combination of TM, VWAGY, DDAIF, BMWYY, GM, F, HMC, RACE, NSANY, FUJHY, VOLAF, and MZDAY has generated $1.38 trillion in revenue over the TTM, putting their P/S at 0.56, while TSLA has generated $62.19 billion in revenue and has a 15.87 P/S.<blockquote>市盈率经常被用来证明估值的合理性。TM、VWAGY、DDAIF、BMWYY、GM、F、HMC、RACE、NSANY、FUJHY、VOLAF和MZDAY的组合在TTM上创造了1.38万亿美元的收入，市盈率为0.56，而TSLA则创造了621.9亿美元的收入，市盈率为15.87。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9b9661fde232925a758c38fd2e93f36\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛，寻求阿尔法</blockquote>As a combined entity, these 12 companies have generated $118.29 billion in net income, while TSLA has produced $8.4 billion.<blockquote>作为一个合并后的实体，这12家公司创造了1182.9亿美元的净利润，而TSLA创造了84亿美元。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d25806eb839eb9ca2b4ef3c24218048c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛，寻求阿尔法</blockquote>TSLA is a great company, but its current valuation has become overly inflated. TSLA&#39;s market cap is $209.52 billion larger than these 12 auto manufacturers, yet the combination of the 12 auto manufacturers generates $1.32 trillion more in revenue and $109.89 billion more in net income.<blockquote>特斯拉是一家伟大的公司，但其目前的估值已经过度膨胀。特斯拉的市值比这12家汽车制造商高出2095.2亿美元，但这12家汽车制造商加起来的收入多出1.32万亿美元，净利润多出1098.9亿美元。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1b686de4009ca733ff9651ce0d9fcaf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛，寻求阿尔法</blockquote>Looking at the market caps, one would assume that TSLA has a dominant majority over its competitors in auto sales within the U.S. According to the2021 data, TSLA sold 2.02% of all vehicles in the U.S. TSLA&#39;s market cap reflects a level of dominance that is non-existent.<blockquote>从市值来看，人们会认为特斯拉在美国的汽车销量中比竞争对手占据主导地位。根据2021年的数据，TSLA的销量占美国所有汽车的2.02%。TSLA的市值反映了不存在的主导地位。</blockquote>Realistically, TSLA will have a hard time disrupting the sector further due to the price point of their vehicles. The reality is that, unless TSLA can sell a car that rivals a Honda or Toyota, doubling its market share is going to be a daunting task. It&#39;s just math. TSLA doesn&#39;t have a product for the masses, and while it may continue to grow in the luxury segment, the amount of growth that can be achieved is limited due to the pricing power of the consumer.<blockquote>实际上，由于其车辆的价格，特斯拉将很难进一步扰乱该行业。现实情况是，除非特斯拉能够销售出与本田或丰田相媲美的汽车，否则将其市场份额翻一番将是一项艰巨的任务。只是数学而已。特斯拉没有面向大众的产品，虽然它在豪华车领域可能会继续增长，但由于消费者的定价能力，所能实现的增长是有限的。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/442ffe151dd83bc524785857925f9797\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>www.goodcarbadcar.net<blockquote>www.goodcarbadcar.net</blockquote>Tesla Isn&#39;t A Technology Company And Shouldn&#39;t Be Valued As One<blockquote>特斯拉不是一家科技公司，也不应该被视为一家科技公司</blockquote>The valuation rebuttal has always been that TSLA isn&#39;t an automobile company, rather, it&#39;s a technology company.<blockquote>估值反驳一直是特斯拉不是一家汽车公司，而是一家科技公司。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbc9ccb2cb8a0e7d40804db24e183214\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Tesla<blockquote>特斯拉</blockquote>Page 23 ofTSLA&#39;s Q1 2022 slide deck from their earnings call is their statement of operations. Once again, 100% of TSLA&#39;s gross profit and net income are derived from automobiles. Energy generation and storage lose money as it generates $616 million in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $688 million. The same goes for Services and others, as this segment generates $1.279 billion in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $1.286 billion. This doesn&#39;t even factor in operating expenses.<blockquote>特斯拉2022年第一季度收益看涨期权幻灯片的第23页是他们的运营报表。再次，TSLA的毛利润和净利润100%来自汽车。能源生产和存储亏损，因为它产生了6.16亿美元的收入，而该收入的成本为6.88亿美元。服务和其他部门也是如此，因为该部门产生了12.79亿美元的收入，而该收入的成本为12.86亿美元。这甚至没有考虑运营费用。</blockquote>TSLA manufacturers state of the art automobiles, but this doesn&#39;t classify them as a technology company, nor should they be classified as one. Since this is always the rebuttal and technology companies trade at larger earnings multiples, I will compare TSLA to Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), and Meta Platforms (FB) and illustrate why TSLA is still drastically overvalued if the market was still to provide it with a tech multiple.<blockquote>TSLA制造最先进的汽车，但这并不能将它们归类为科技公司，也不应该归类为科技公司。由于这始终是反驳，而且科技公司的市盈率较高，我将将TSLA与苹果(AAPL)、微软(MSFT)、亚马逊(AMZN)、Alphabet(GOOG)(GOOGL)和Meta Platforms进行比较(FB)并说明如果市场仍然为特斯拉提供科技市盈率，为什么特斯拉仍然被严重高估。</blockquote>Prior to the comparisons, I want to frame the analysis by providing each company&#39;s market cap:<blockquote>在进行比较之前，我想通过提供每家公司的市值来构建分析：</blockquote><ul><li>AAPL $2.69 Trillion</li><li>MSFT $2.17 Trillion</li><li>GOOGL $1.62 Trillion</li><li>AMZN $1.28 Trillion</li><li>TSLA $986.92 Billion</li><li>FB $604.62 Billion</li></ul>I am going to start with growth because this is always the key metric bulls point out. Since the close of 2018, which is 3.25 fiscal years, TSLA has grown its revenue from $21.46 billion to $62.19 billion.<blockquote><ul><li>苹果公司2.69万亿美元</li><li>MSFT 2.17万亿美元</li><li>GOOGL 1.62万亿美元</li><li>AMZN 1.28万亿美元</li><li>特斯拉9869.2亿美元</li><li>FB 6046.2亿美元</li></ul>我将从增长开始，因为这始终是多头指出的关键指标。自2018年底（即3.25财年）以来，TSLA的收入已从214.6亿美元增长至621.9亿美元。</blockquote>This is absolutely remarkable, but it doesn&#39;t place TSLA in the upper epsilon of technology companies. Over the same period, FB grew its revenue by $63.83 billion, which is more than what TSLA produced in the TTM. FB grew its revenue by more than what TSLA produces and generates just about double the revenue ($119.67 billion), yet TSLA has a larger market cap. For everyone who has used growth as their investment premise, FB having a market cap that&#39;s $382.30 less than TSLA nullifies that aspect of the bull thesis. AMZN&#39;s market cap is only $294.33 billion larger than TSLA, yet they generated $477.75 billion in revenue and grew their revenue by $341.76 billion in this period. Using revenue growth for TSLA doesn&#39;t support the valuation.<blockquote>这绝对是了不起的，但它并没有将特斯拉置于科技公司的上位。同期，FB的收入增长了638.3亿美元，超过了TSLA在TTM中的收入。FB的收入增长超过了TSLA的收入，几乎是其收入的两倍（1196.7亿美元），但TSLA的市值更大。对于每个以增长为投资前提的人来说，FB的市值比TSLA低382.30美元，这使得牛市论点的这一方面无效。AMZN的市值仅比TSLA大2943.3亿美元，但他们创造了4777.5亿美元的收入，在此期间收入增长了3417.6亿美元。使用TSLA的收入增长并不支持估值。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c0fbd4eb93f026c4575ee8f77f53e4b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛，寻求阿尔法</blockquote>Next, I will turn to profits because, at the end of the day, businesses are in the business of making money. Once again, TSLA has done a fantastic job of monetizing its business and, in 3.25 short years, has gone from losing -$976 million to make $8.4 billion in the TTM for an increase of $9.38 billion. FB has produced $37.34 billion in profit in the TTM, and its net income grew by $15.23 billion over this period. Using growth doesn&#39;t support the valuation when FB has a market cap that&#39;s $382.30 less than TSLA and grew its profits in this period by almost double what TSLA has generated in the TTM.<blockquote>接下来，我将转向利润，因为归根结底，企业是在赚钱。TSLA再次在业务货币化方面做得非常出色，在短短3.25年内，TTM从亏损9.76亿美元增至84亿美元，增加了93.8亿美元。FB在TTM创造了373.4亿美元的利润，净利润在此期间增长了152.3亿美元。当FB的市值比TSLA低382.30美元，并且在此期间的利润增长几乎是TSLA在TTM中的两倍时，使用增长并不能支持估值。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9716477607711ee0b6d4f77eb24c890\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛，寻求阿尔法</blockquote>The new metric bulls are using in their thesis is TSLA&#39;s free cash flow (FCF). Once again, TSLA has done an excellent job, going from -$221 million of FCF in 2018 to $6.93 billion of FCF in the TTM. Many companies would love to grow their annual FCF by $7.15 billion over a 3.25-year period, and this should be applauded.<blockquote>多头在论文中使用的新指标是特斯拉的自由现金流（FCF）。TSLA再次表现出色，从2018年的-2.21亿美元自由现金流增至TTM的69.3亿美元自由现金流。许多公司希望在3.25年内将其年度自由现金流增加71.5亿美元，这应该受到赞扬。</blockquote>Let&#39;s look at FB once again, since TSLA&#39;s valuation isn&#39;t based on its core segment as an automobile manufacturer. FB has grown its FCF over the previous 3.25 years by $23.45 billion, more than 3x TSLA&#39;s growth, and has generated $39.81 billion of FCF in the TTM. FB generated roughly 5.75x more FCF than TSLA and grew its FCF by more than 3x what TSLA produces, yet FB has a market cap that&#39;s almost $400 billion less than TSLA. Growth within the financials does not support TSLA&#39;s valuation, which is a breath away from $1 trillion.<blockquote>让我们再次看看FB，因为TSLA的估值并不是基于其作为汽车制造商的核心细分市场。FB的FCF在过去3.25年中增长了234.5亿美元，是TSLA增长的3倍多，并在TTM中产生了398.1亿美元的FCF。FB产生的自由现金流大约是TSLA的5.75倍，其自由现金流增长是TSLA的3倍多，但FB的市值比TSLA少近4000亿美元。金融界的增长并不能支撑TSLA的估值，该估值距离1万亿美元仅一步之遥。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/902a7074eda9e8f2f2765e0833423d2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛，寻求阿尔法</blockquote>Today you&#39;re paying a 113.81 P/E for TSLA. Paying a larger multiple for a company that&#39;s growing its earnings quickly is normal, but TSLA isn&#39;t growing by larger amounts than FB, and FB trades at a 16.66 P/E. I have seen TSLA bulls justify the P/E because of TSLA&#39;s growth factor, but this doesn&#39;t hold up when FB has grown by larger amounts from larger starting positions and has a P/E that&#39;s a fraction of TSLA. Look at AAPL, which is the largest company in the world. AAPL has grown its net income by $56.25 billion and its FCF by $52.3 billion over the past 3.25 years, and its P/E is 26.78. People are blindly paying any multiple the market places on TSLA.<blockquote>今天，您为TSLA支付的市盈率为113.81。为一家盈利快速增长的公司支付更高的市盈率是正常的，但TSLA的增长幅度并不比FB大，FB的市盈率为16.66。我见过TSLA多头因为TSLA的增长因素而证明市盈率是合理的，但当FB从较大的起始头寸增长了更多并且市盈率只是TSLA的一小部分时，这就不成立了。看看AAPL，它是世界上最大的公司。过去3.25年，AAPL的净利润增长了562.5亿美元，自由现金流增长了523亿美元，市盈率为26.78。人们盲目地支付特斯拉市场份额的任何倍数。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75168f6e39ced721cf0c53d78481a983\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TSLA is trading at a 15.38 P/S. The justification for this multiple is difficult to defend while AMZN trades at a P/S of 11.31. AMZN&#39;s revenue grew by $341.76 billion over the past 3.25 years while TSLA grew their revenue by $40.73 billion. Instead of an absolute basis, looking at this from a percentage aspect, TSLA grew its revenue by 189.78%, while AMZN&#39;s grew by 251.32%. The P/S ratio is not a supporting valuation metric as TSLA is trading at a larger multiple than AMZN yet produced $301.03 billion less in revenue growth compared to AMZN. At the very least, TSLA should trade at a lower P/S multiple than AMZN considering their revenue growth was a fraction of AMZN&#39;s.<blockquote>TSLA的交易价格为15.38 P/S。当AMZN的市盈率为11.31时，这一市盈率的合理性很难辩护。过去3.25年，AMZN的收入增长了3417.6亿美元，而TSLA的收入增长了407.3亿美元。从百分比来看，特斯拉的收入增长了189.78%，而亚马逊的收入增长了251.32%，而不是绝对基数。市盈率并不是一个支持性的估值指标，因为TSLA的市盈率高于AMZN，但与AMZN相比，其收入增长却少了3010.3亿美元。至少，考虑到特斯拉的收入增长只是亚马逊的一小部分，特斯拉的市盈率应该低于亚马逊。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aad00a6c490808962705a1a2dae45cfe\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TSLA has done an excellent job monetizing its revenue, delivering exceptional margins, and generating FCF. Now that TSLA is generating billions in FCF, it&#39;s been inserted into the bull thesis. FCF is a measure of profitability that excludes the non-cash expenses of the income statement and includes spending on equipment and assets as well as changes in working capital from the balance sheet. FCF could be the most underrated and most important financial metric to look at, as this is the pool of capital that companies can utilize to repay debt, pay dividends, buy back shares, make acquisitions, or reinvest in the business.<blockquote>特斯拉在收入货币化、提供卓越的利润率和产生自由现金流方面做得非常出色。现在，特斯拉正在产生数十亿美元的自由现金流，它已被纳入牛市论点。FCF是衡量盈利能力的指标，不包括损益表中的非现金费用，包括设备和资产支出以及资产负债表中营运资本的变化。自由现金流可能是最被低估和最重要的财务指标，因为这是公司可以用来偿还债务、支付股息、回购股票、进行收购或对业务进行再投资的资本池。</blockquote>Every investment is the present value of all future cash flow. This is why investors look at the price to FCF valuation. Investors want to pay the cheapest multiple for a company&#39;s FCF. Today, you&#39;re paying 142.52x TSLA&#39;s FCF. Going back to the FCF section, TSLA grew its FCF by $7.15 billion over the past 3.25 years. FB generated $23.45 billion of FCF in this period, which is 3x the amount TSLA grew, yet FB is trading at a 15.19x multiple on price to FCF.<blockquote>每一项投资都是未来所有现金流的现值。这就是为什么投资者关注自由现金流估值的价格。投资者希望为公司的自由现金流支付最便宜的倍数。今天，您支付的是TSLA自由现金流的142.52倍。回到自由现金流部分，TSLA的自由现金流在过去3.25年中增长了71.5亿美元。FB在此期间产生了234.5亿美元的FCF，是TSLA增长金额的3倍，但FB的市盈率是FCF的15.19倍。</blockquote>Why on earth would you want to pay 142.52x for TSLA&#39;s FCF when you could pay 15.19x for FB, which is growing their FCF by more than 3x the amount that TSLA is growing by? How about AAPL? AAPL grew its FCF by $52.3 billion and trades at a 25.4x price to FCF. If I exclude FB for a moment, should TSLA trade at a larger FCF multiple than GOOGL, which has grown its FCF by $46.15 billion over the past 3.25 years? My answer is no because there is no guarantee that TSLA will ever generate $46.15 billion in annual FCF, let alone the $68.99 billion in FCF that GOOGL generates.<blockquote>当您可以为FB支付15.19倍的FCF时，您究竟为什么要为TSLA的FCF支付142.52倍的费用，而FB的FCF增长速度是TSLA增长速度的3倍以上？苹果公司怎么样？AAPL的自由现金流增加了523亿美元，交易价格是自由现金流的25.4倍。如果我暂时排除FB，TSLA的自由现金流倍数是否应该高于GOOGL，后者的自由现金流在过去3.25年中增长了461.5亿美元？我的答案是否定的，因为无法保证特斯拉每年能够产生461.5亿美元的自由现金流，更不用说GOOGL产生的689.9亿美元的自由现金流了。</blockquote>So what is a fair price to FCF multiple for TSLA? I don&#39;t believe TSLA has earned the right to trade at the same multiples as the rest of big tech considering the levels of FCF they produce. If I stick with the methodology that FB is egregiously undervalued, then TSLA should trade above 15.19x its FCF but lower than the 23.42x multiple GOOGL trades at.<blockquote>那么TSLA的FCF倍数的合理价格是多少呢？考虑到它们产生的自由现金流水平，我认为特斯拉没有赢得与其他大型科技公司相同倍数的交易权利。如果我坚持FB被严重低估的方法论，那么TSLA的交易价格应该高于其FCF的15.19倍，但低于GOOGL交易价格的23.42倍。</blockquote>I don&#39;t want to be overly bearish, so I will place a 21x multiple on TSLA&#39;s FCF, which is more than fair considering big tech metrics. A 21x multiple on TSLA&#39;s FCF puts its market cap at $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion. It&#39;s just math, and if TSLA is going to be valued as a technology company, it needs to be compared to the technology companies with similar market caps.<blockquote>我不想过于悲观，因此我将TSLA的自由现金流设定为21倍，考虑到大型科技指标，这是非常公平的。TSLA自由现金流的21倍使其市值达到1454.3亿美元，较目前9869.2亿美元的市值下降了-85.26%。这只是数学问题，如果特斯拉要作为一家科技公司进行估值，就需要与市值相似的科技公司进行比较。</blockquote>At the very least, there isn&#39;t a single reason why TSLA&#39;s market cap is larger than FB&#39;s. There isn&#39;t a single metric that TSLA beats FB in. Based on FB&#39;s valuation, if TSLA traded at the same FCF multiple, it would have a market cap of $105.19 billion.<blockquote>至少，TSLA的市值大于FB的原因并不是单一的。TSLA没有一个指标能击败FB。根据FB的估值，如果TSLA以相同的FCF倍数交易，其市值将达到1051.9亿美元。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b81a61d60d9ec098276569cc4a501da0\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TSLA has a gross profit margin of 27.1% ($16.85b / $62.19b) and a profit margin of 13.51% ($8.4b / $62.19b). FB has a gross profit margin of 80.34% ($96.14b / $119.67b) and a profit margin of 31.2% ($37.34b / $119.67b). FB has much wider margins and is growing its revenue by larger amounts. This reinforces my methodology as to why TSLA is grossly overvalued. GOOGL has a gross profit margin of 56.93% ($153.9b / $270.33b) and a profit margin of 27.57% ($74.54b / $270.33b).<blockquote>TSLA的毛利率为27.1%（$16.85 B/$62.19 B），利润率为13.51%（$8.4 B/$62.19 B）。FB的毛利率为80.34%（$96.14 B/$119.67 B），利润率为31.2%（$37.34 B/$119.67 B）。FB的利润率要高得多，收入也在大幅增长。这强化了我关于为什么特斯拉被严重高估的方法论。GOOGL的毛利率为56.93%（$153.9 B/$270.33 B），利润率为27.57%（$745.4 B/$270.33 B）。</blockquote>The chances are incredibly slim that TSLA can double its profit margin to be within striking distance of GOOGL&#39;s. TSLA should not trade at a larger FCF, P/E, or P/S multiple than FB or GOOGL. While the market would indicate that I am wrong today, eventually, the hype will wear off, and TSLA will trade at a realistic valuation.<blockquote>特斯拉将利润率提高一倍，与GOOGL相提并论的可能性微乎其微。TSLA的自由现金流、市盈率或市盈率不应高于FB或GOOGL。虽然市场今天会表明我错了，但最终，炒作将会消退，特斯拉将以现实的估值进行交易。</blockquote>TSLA&#39;s Future Catalysts Have A Long Way To Go Before Impacting Its Bottom Line<blockquote>特斯拉未来的催化剂在影响其利润之前还有很长的路要走</blockquote>There are three main catalysts people discuss, which include insurance, robotaxis, and FSD.TSLA offers insurance using real-time driving behavior. This is currently available to all Model S, Model 3, Model X, and Model Y owners. The catch is that it&#39;s only available in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Ohio, Oregon, Texas, and Virginia as of now.<blockquote>人们讨论的催化剂主要有三个，包括保险、机器人出租车和FSD.TSLA使用实时驾驶行为提供保险。目前，所有Model S、Model 3、Model X和Model Y车主均可使用该功能。问题是，目前它仅在亚利桑那州、科罗拉多州、伊利诺伊州、俄亥俄州、俄勒冈州、德克萨斯州和弗吉尼亚州可用。</blockquote>TSLA uses a safety rating score to determine the monthly premium for its vehicles. At the largest premium of $130/mo, this would be $1,560 per year. If TSLA converted 100% of their U.S sales in 2021 as an insurance customer, which I think could be possible if TSLA insurance was available in every state, it would have generated $471.12 million in revenue.<blockquote>特斯拉使用安全评级分数来确定其车辆的每月保费。以130美元/月的最大保费计算，每年为1,560美元。如果TSLA在2021年将其在美国的销售额100%转化为保险客户（我认为如果每个州都提供TSLA保险，这是可能的），那么它将产生4.7112亿美元的收入。</blockquote>We have no idea what the margins would have been, but if the margin was 50%, it would have been an additional $235.56 million in net income in 2021. While this is nothing to sneeze at, an additional $235.56 million in net income hardly moves the needle. This could be a $1 billion top-line revenue segment in the future, but with availability in only 7 states, insurance&#39;s $1 billion revenue mark is a long way away.<blockquote>我们不知道利润率是多少，但如果利润率为50%，2021年净利润将增加2.3556亿美元。虽然这不容小觑，但额外的2.3556亿美元净利润几乎没有什么影响。这可能是未来10亿美元的营收部分，但由于仅在7个州提供服务，保险业10亿美元的收入大关还有很长的路要走。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e86de6232b9abf7cee46a9607eb09741\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Tesla<blockquote>特斯拉</blockquote>Next,FSD, for which TSLA has created two subscription models, a $99/mo price point and a $199/mo price point. The problem with FSD is that it doesn&#39;t make the vehicle fully autonomous, and you still need a driver to be attentive and alert. While I am not arguing that TSLA&#39;s FSD isn&#39;t leaps and bounds ahead of the competition, the problem is that it&#39;s not exactly a self-driving car.<blockquote>接下来是FSD，TSLA为其创建了两种订阅模式，99美元/月的价格点和199美元/月的价格点。FSD的问题在于，它不能使车辆完全自动驾驶，您仍然需要驾驶员保持专注和警觉。虽然我并不是说TSLA的FSD没有在竞争中遥遥领先，但问题是它并不完全是自动驾驶汽车。</blockquote>The questions around legality and where you can use it pop into my head, and how many of TSLA&#39;s drivers opt for this upgrade. Until there is clear legislation and the technology advances to where vehicles can fully drive a person from point A to B while that person takes a nap or reads, I have a hard time believing enough TSLA owners will spend the extra $199/mo on FSD. If there is somewhere where TSLA produces the numbers about how many owners opt for this package, please let me know, and I will crunch the numbers.<blockquote>有关合法性和在哪里可以使用它的问题突然出现在我的脑海中，以及有多少TSLA的司机选择了这种升级。在有明确的立法和技术进步到车辆可以在一个人午睡或阅读的时候完全驾驶一个人从A点到B点之前，我很难相信有足够多的TSLA车主会在FSD上额外花费199美元/月。如果TSLA在某个地方提供了有关有多少车主选择此套餐的数据，请让我知道，我将处理这些数据。</blockquote>Which Features Come With My Subscription?<blockquote>我的订阅附带哪些功能？</blockquote>The FSD capability features you receive are based on your configuration and location. Not all features are available in all markets, and features are subject to change.Learn more about Autopilot and Full Self-Driving capability features.Note: These features are designed to become more capable over time; however the currently enabled features do not make the vehicle autonomous. The currently enabled features require a fully attentive driver, who has their hands on the wheel and is prepared to take over at any moment.The last catalyst is Robotaxis which many have commented on in my articles before. We&#39;re so far off on Robotaxis that this can&#39;t be considered in TSLA&#39;s upcoming revenue. I would think major legislation would be needed for Robotaxis to exist, and there is no telling how many years away we are from this.<blockquote>您收到的FSD功能基于您的配置和位置。并非所有功能在所有市场都可用，并且功能可能会发生变化。了解有关Autopilot和全自动驾驶功能的更多信息。注意：这些功能旨在随着时间的推移变得更强大；然而，当前启用的特征并不能使车辆自主。目前启用的功能需要一个全神贯注的驾驶员，他的手放在方向盘上，随时准备接管。最后一个催化剂是机器人出租车，许多人在我之前的文章中评论过。我们在机器人出租车方面的差距太大，以至于不能在特斯拉即将到来的收入中考虑这一点。我认为机器人出租车的存在需要重大立法，而且不知道我们还需要多少年。</blockquote>Also, what is the percentage of TSLA owners that would actually allow their vehicle to be used as a Robotaxi? Depending on what the profitability is, I can see people buying TSLAs to enroll them in this program, but, once again, we need to see the economics behind it. I know I am just one opinion, but I would never enroll one of my cars into a robotaxi program because I don&#39;t want other people that I don&#39;t know in my car. I would think there are many others that have similar viewpoints.<blockquote>另外，真正允许他们的车辆用作机器人出租车的TSLA车主比例是多少？根据盈利能力，我可以看到人们购买特斯拉来加入这个计划，但是，我们需要再次看到其背后的经济学。我知道我只是一种观点，但我永远不会让我的一辆车加入机器人出租车计划，因为我不想让我不认识的其他人在我的车里。我想还有很多人有类似的观点。</blockquote>The real upcoming catalysts are future revenue growth and entering the Chinese market. In 2021 TSLA grew its YoY revenue by 70.67%, and their off to a great start after Q1 2022. Only time will tell what type of growth rate TSLA can maintain, but too many people are assuming that TSLA will obliterate the competition. Over the next several years, we could see TSLA&#39;s growth rate become significantly reduced as more luxury operators put EVs on the road.<blockquote>真正即将到来的催化剂是未来的收入增长和进入中国市场。2021年，特斯拉收入同比增长70.67%，在2022年第一季度之后取得了良好的开端。只有时间才能证明特斯拉能够保持什么样的增长率，但太多人认为特斯拉将消灭竞争对手。在接下来的几年里，随着更多的豪华运营商将电动汽车上路，我们可能会看到特斯拉的增长率大幅下降。</blockquote>At TSLA&#39;s current margins, they would need to increase their revenue by 444.55% to $276.47 billion to produce the same amount of net income ($37.34b) that FB produces today at their current 13.51% profit margin. Maybe TSLA can get there in the future, but why should TSLA be valued at almost $1 trillion today, considering not a single metric of theirs is similar to FB or GOOGL, and TSLA&#39;s growth across any of the sectors isn&#39;t larger than FB or GOOGL?<blockquote>按照TSLA目前的利润率，他们需要将收入增加444.55%，达到2,764.7亿美元，才能产生与FB目前13.51%利润率相同的净利润($37.34 B)。也许TSLA未来可以实现这一目标，但为什么TSLA今天的估值应该接近1万亿美元，因为他们没有一个指标与FB或GOOGL相似，而且TSLA在任何领域的增长都不比FB或GOOGL大？</blockquote>Tesla Continues To Dilute Shareholders, And Almost No Shareholders Care<blockquote>特斯拉不断稀释股东，几乎没有股东关心</blockquote>Dilution kills shareholder value. Look, I am a shareholder of TSLA, and I hate that my shares continue to be diluted. These numbers are split-adjusted that I am using. Over the past decade,TSLA has diluted its shares by 80.93%. This is horrible compared to big tech, yet investors can&#39;t buy enough TSLA shares. TSLA finished 2012 with 572.6 million shares and, as of its last filing, had increased its outstanding shares to 1.036 billion shares.<blockquote>稀释会扼杀股东价值。听着，我是特斯拉的股东，我讨厌我的股份继续被稀释。这些数字是我正在使用的分割调整的。过去十年，TSLA的股份稀释了80.93%。与大型科技公司相比，这是可怕的，但投资者无法购买足够的特斯拉股票。截至2012年底，特斯拉持有5.726亿股股票，截至上次提交文件，其流通股已增至10.36亿股。</blockquote>This is the equivalent of me taking a pizza, and instead of giving you a slice, cutting another 6.5 slices, then giving you one. The pizza represents TSLA, the company, and they basically turned an 8-slice pie into a 14.5-slice pie, reducing shareholder&#39;s ownership and the amount of equity, revenue, and EPS our shares represent.<blockquote>这相当于我拿了一个披萨，不是给你一片，而是再切6.5片，然后给你一片。披萨代表TSLA公司，他们基本上将8片馅饼变成了14.5片馅饼，减少了股东所有权以及我们的股票所代表的股本、收入和每股收益。</blockquote>If you want to see what a true shepherd of shareholder value looks like, turn to AAPL. In 2012 AAPL had 26.3 billion shares outstanding. Over the past decade, AAPL has repurchased 10.09 billion shares, reducing its outstanding shares by 38.37%. Every quarter, AAPL is buying back shares and increasing the ownership its shares represent. TSLA, on the other hand, continues to dilute shareholders by increasing shares YOY.<blockquote>如果您想了解真正的股东价值牧羊人是什么样子，请转向AAPL。2012年，AAPL拥有263亿股已发行股票。过去十年，AAPL回购了100.9亿股，流通股减少了38.37%。每个季度，苹果公司都会回购股票并增加其股票所代表的所有权。另一方面，特斯拉继续通过同比增持来稀释股东权益。</blockquote>I Could Be Completely Wrong, And Tesla Could Continue Growing At These Rates<blockquote>我可能完全错了，特斯拉可能会继续以这样的速度增长</blockquote>TSLA&#39;s vehicle deliveries continue to outpace its growing production. YoY TSLA&#39;s deliveries increased by 68% in Q1, adding 125,171 delivered vehicles to its customers. TSLA just began Model Y deliveries from the Austin facility, and production at the Gigafactory in Berlin started in March of 2022. TSLA&#39;s Shanghai facility had strong production rates prior to the spike in COVID that resulted in temporary shutdowns. TSLA isn&#39;t just focusing on the U.S, they have Europe and China in their sights.<blockquote>特斯拉的汽车交付量继续超过其产量增长速度。特斯拉第一季度的交付量同比增长68%，向客户交付了125,171辆汽车。TSLA刚刚开始从奥斯汀工厂交付Model Y，柏林超级工厂的生产于2022年3月开始。在新冠疫情激增导致暂时关闭之前，特斯拉上海工厂的生产率强劲。特斯拉不仅仅关注美国，他们还将目光投向了欧洲和中国。</blockquote>EVs accounted for 488,000 sales in the U.S for 2021, and the previous projection was that EVs would account for 670,000 units sold in 2022. Oil has hovered around $100 per barrel and could render the previous projections of 37% increased EV sales domestically for 2022 conservative. TSLA is in a prime position to capitalize on this trend. In 2021 TSLA vehicles accounted for 61.89% of EVs sold in the U.S (301,998 / 488,000).<blockquote>2021年，电动汽车在美国的销量为488,000辆，此前的预测是2022年电动汽车的销量将达到670,000辆。油价一直徘徊在每桶100美元左右，这可能会使之前对2022年国内电动汽车销量增长37%的预测变得保守。特斯拉处于利用这一趋势的有利位置。2021年，TSLA汽车占美国电动汽车销量的61.89%（301,998/488,000辆）。</blockquote>Hypothetically, if the previous projection of 670,000 EV sales for 2022 is accurate and TSLA maintains its current margin, they would sell 414,628 vehicles throughout the U.S in 2022. If gas prices do alter the decision-making process when deciding between a combustible engine or an EV, then TSLA could continue surprising the market with QoQ earnings beats.<blockquote>假设，如果之前对2022年电动汽车销量670,000辆的预测是准确的，并且TSLA保持目前的利润率，那么2022年他们将在美国销售414,628辆汽车。如果汽油价格确实改变了在决定燃油发动机还是电动汽车时的决策过程，那么特斯拉可能会继续以季度盈利超出市场预期。</blockquote>The U.S has a national goal of reaching 50% of domestic auto sales coming from EVs. In 2021, EVs accounted for 3.26% of total sales in the U.S auto market. Based on U.S auto sales in 2021, annual EV sales would need to grow by 6,989,403 to reach a 50% EV to combustible engine ratio. Hypothetically if U.S auto sales stayed flat but EVs reached 50% of the market in 2030 they would sell 7,477,403 vehicles. If TSLA&#39;s dominance in the EV sector was to drop from 61.89% to 15% due to increased competition, they would generate 1,121,610 in sales compared to 301,998 in 2021. When you add in Europe and China, TSLA certainly has the ability to become a top auto manufacturer by sales next decade.<blockquote>美国的国家目标是电动汽车占国内汽车销量的50%。2021年，电动汽车占美国汽车市场总销量的3.26%。根据2021年美国汽车销量，电动汽车年销量需要增长6,989,403辆，才能达到电动汽车与内燃机的比例50%。假设，如果美国汽车销量持平，但电动汽车在2030年达到市场的50%，他们将售出7,477,403辆汽车。如果特斯拉在电动汽车领域的主导地位因竞争加剧而从61.89%下降至15%，那么它们的销量将为1,121,610辆，而2021年为301,998辆。如果加上欧洲和中国，特斯拉当然有能力在未来十年成为销量第一的汽车制造商。</blockquote>Bulls aren&#39;t incorrect to be excited about TSLA. The world is moving toward EVs, and TSLA is the crème de la crème. As I said in the beginning, I am bullish about TSLA&#39;s future prospects, but I think the valuation today is overinflated. Nobody can predict the future, but I have no doubt that TSLA will continue to grow its sales YoY.<blockquote>多头对特斯拉感到兴奋并没有错。世界正在走向电动汽车，而TSLA是其中的佼佼者。正如我一开始所说，我看好TSLA的未来前景，但我认为今天的估值被夸大了。没有人能预测未来，但我毫不怀疑特斯拉的销量将继续同比增长。</blockquote>The question becomes, how much growth will they be able to achieve YoY? In 2021, TM generated $226.48 billion of revenue and, based on the future of EVs, TSLA certainly could achieve this level of revenue in the future. Based on TSLA&#39;s current 13.51% profit margin, if they achieved TM&#39;s level of revenue, they would generate $30.59 billion of net income, which would definitely make today&#39;s valuation look more realistic.<blockquote>问题变成了，他们能够实现多少同比增长？2021年，TM创造了2264.8亿美元的收入，基于电动汽车的未来，TSLA未来肯定可以达到这一收入水平。基于TSLA目前13.51%的利润率，如果他们达到TM的收入水平，他们将产生305.9亿美元的净利润，这肯定会让今天的估值看起来更加现实。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c9176fa9bebc2c940e038cafd23229\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Tesla<blockquote>特斯拉</blockquote>Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote>You&#39;re probably wondering how I can be a shareholder and be a bear on TSLA&#39;s valuation at the same time. It&#39;s simple; my wife bought shares of TSLA, which makes me a shareholder. My stance has always been bullish on the company and bearish on the valuation. What Elon Musk and the team at TSLA has accomplished is astonishing, and they deserve nothing but respect.<blockquote>你可能想知道我怎么能既是股东又看跌特斯拉估值。很简单；我的妻子购买了特斯拉的股票，这使我成为股东。我的立场一直是看多公司，看空估值。埃隆·马斯克和特斯拉团队所取得的成就令人惊叹，他们只值得尊重。</blockquote>Keep in mind a company and a company&#39;s stock are two separate things. TSLA continues to dilute shareholders, and they and the market are valuing TSLA as if it&#39;s FB or GOOGL. TSLA is not a technology company; it&#39;s an automobile company, as the automotive segments drive 100% of its gross revenue and net income.<blockquote>请记住，公司和公司的股票是两回事。特斯拉继续稀释股东权益，他们和市场对特斯拉的估值就好像它是FB或GOOGL一样。TSLA不是一家科技公司；它是一家汽车公司，因为汽车部门占其总收入和净利润的100%。</blockquote>TSLA is trading at a P/E of 113.81, a P/S of 15.38, and a 142.52x multiple on its FCF. The numbers are drastically inflated as TSLA has no business trading at a larger P/S multiple than AMZN, which trades at 11.31 P/S when it has grown its revenue by $341.76 billion over the previous 3.25 years compared to TSLA&#39;s $40.73 billion of revenue growth. TSLA has generated $6.93 billion in FCF over the TTM, while Mr. Market has placed a 142.52x multiple on TSLA due to $7.15 billion FCF growth over the past 3.25 years. FB trades at a 15.19x FCF multiple while growing FCF by $23.45 billion over this period which is more than 3x what TSLA has generated in the TTM.<blockquote>TSLA的市盈率为113.81倍，市盈率为15.38倍，自由现金流倍数为142.52倍。这些数字被严重夸大了，因为TSLA的市盈率没有比AMZN更高的业务，AMZN的市盈率为11.31，而TSLA的收入在过去3.25年中增长了3,417.6亿美元，而TSLA的收入增长为407.3亿美元。TSLA通过TTM产生了69.3亿美元的自由现金流，而Mr由于过去3.25年FCF增长71.5亿美元，市场对TSLA的评级为142.52倍。FB的FCF市盈率为15.19倍，而在此期间FCF增长了234.5亿美元，是TSLA在TTM中产生的3倍多。</blockquote>With FB trading at 15.19x FCF, GOOGL at 23.42x FCF, and AAPL at 25.4x FCF, it&#39;s hard to justify any number above 20x for TSLA. I think a 21x FCF multiple is generous and that places TSLA at a market cap of $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion.<blockquote>FB的交易价格为15.19倍FCF，GOOGL为23.42倍FCF，AAPL为25.4倍FCF，因此很难证明TSLA的任何高于20倍的数字是合理的。我认为21倍的自由现金流倍数是慷慨的，这使得TSLA的市值达到1,454.3亿美元，比目前9,869.2亿美元的市值下降了-85.26%。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Overvalued By 85.26% And Not A Technology Company<blockquote>特斯拉：高估85.26%不是科技公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Overvalued By 85.26% And Not A Technology Company<blockquote>特斯拉：高估85.26%不是科技公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2022-05-08 11:30\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>Summary<blockquote><html><head></head><body>总结</body></html></blockquote><ul><li>Make no mistake, Tesla is a phenomenal company that has accomplished the unthinkable as it broke through extreme barriers of entry to disrupt the auto industry.</li><li>Just because Tesla is a successful company that is causing automotive titans to change from combustible engines to EVs doesn&#39;t mean Tesla&#39;s stock is a good investment today.</li><li>100% of gross profit and net income is generated from the automotive sector as Tesla&#39;s other businesses lose money, making them an automobile manufacturing company, not a technology company.</li><li>I compared Tesla&#39;s metrics to the auto industry and big tech and the results are the same, Tesla&#39;s valuation is egregious.</li></ul>It&#39;s rare to find companies that have cult-like followings with loyalists willing to pay any price for its stock. The debate regarding Tesla, Inc.&#39;s (NASDAQ:TSLA) valuation continues to be a topic of conversation between the bulls and the bears. Oneside argues that TSLA&#39;s financial growth and future prospects, including FSD, insurance, and robotaxis, justify the current $902.12 billion valuations, while others argue that the current financials and cult-like following have led to a massive overvaluation in TSLA&#39;s stock.<blockquote><ul><li>毫无疑问，特斯拉是一家非凡的公司，它突破了极端的进入壁垒，颠覆了汽车行业，取得了不可思议的成就。</li><li>仅仅因为特斯拉是一家成功的公司，正在推动汽车巨头从内燃机转向电动汽车，并不意味着特斯拉的股票今天是一项不错的投资。</li><li>由于特斯拉的其他业务都在亏损，100%的毛利润和净利润都来自汽车部门，这使他们成为一家汽车制造公司，而不是一家科技公司。</li><li>我将特斯拉的指标与汽车行业和大型科技公司进行了比较，结果是相同的，特斯拉的估值令人震惊。</li></ul>很少有公司拥有狂热的追随者，忠诚者愿意为其股票支付任何价格。关于特斯拉公司（纳斯达克：TSLA）估值的争论仍然是多头和空头之间的话题。Oneside认为，TSLA的财务增长和未来前景（包括FSD、保险和机器人出租车）证明了当前9021.2亿美元的估值是合理的，而其他人则认为，当前的财务状况和狂热的追随者导致了TSLA股票的大幅高估。</blockquote>I tip my hat to Elon Musk, as his accomplishments are second to none. When others called him crazy, Mr. Musk chose one of the hardest industries to compete in, started TSLA from the ground up, went to battle against the auto manufacturers, and succeeded. TSLA is one of the rare success stories that has truly shaped an industry, and the barriers of entry that were overcome are astonishing. TSLA didn&#39;t have the capital, manufacturing, credibility, or the infrastructure that its competitors did, yet they found a way to succeed. If the odds weren&#39;t enough which TSLA faced, they accomplished their goals without a combustible engine and pioneered an entirely new sector within the automotive industry.<blockquote>我向埃隆·马斯克致敬，因为他的成就是首屈一指的。当别人说他疯了时，马斯克先生选择了一个最难竞争的行业，白手起家创办了特斯拉，与汽车制造商作战，并取得了成功。特斯拉是真正塑造了一个行业的罕见成功故事之一，所克服的进入壁垒令人惊讶。特斯拉不像竞争对手那样拥有资本、制造、信誉或基础设施，但他们找到了成功的方法。如果特斯拉面临的机会还不够，他们在没有燃油发动机的情况下实现了目标，并在汽车行业开创了一个全新的领域。</blockquote>Just because TSLA is a great company, it doesn&#39;t mean TSLA has a great stock, or it isn&#39;t overvalued. I am not bearish on TSLA the company because I believe they still have a long runway of growth ahead of them, but I am bearish on the valuation. Prior to leaving a comment on why I am wrong, please read the article and think about the metrics I am citing; then, I will happily discuss any viewpoints about the analysis.<blockquote>仅仅因为特斯拉是一家伟大的公司，并不意味着特斯拉有一只伟大的股票，或者它没有被高估。我并不看跌特斯拉这家公司，因为我相信他们还有很长的增长之路，但我看跌估值。在评论我为什么错之前，请阅读这篇文章并思考我引用的指标；然后，我会很乐意讨论任何关于分析的观点。</blockquote>Tesla Vs. The World In The Automotive Sector<blockquote>特斯拉与汽车领域的世界</blockquote>It feels like TSLA vs. the world whenever TSLA is discussed. Discussing who makes a better automobile is a matter of opinion, and everyone is correct because it&#39;s their opinion. If person A thinks TSLA makes the best car and person B thinks Mercedes Benz makes the best car, they are both correct. Debating over this is pointless, so let&#39;s look at the raw numbers.<blockquote>每当讨论特斯拉时，感觉就像特斯拉对抗世界。讨论谁制造的汽车更好是见仁见智的问题，每个人都是正确的，因为这是他们的观点。如果A人认为特斯拉制造的汽车最好，B人认为奔驰制造的汽车最好，那么他们都是正确的。争论这个是没有意义的，所以让我们看看原始数据。</blockquote>TSLA has a larger market cap than the combination ofToyota(TM),Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY),Daimler(OTCPK:DDAIF),BMW(OTCPK:BMWYY),General Motors(GM),Ford(F),Honda(HMC),Ferrari(RACE),Nissan(OTCPK:NSANY),Subaru(OTCPK:FUJHY),Volvo(OTCPK:VOLAF), andMazda(OTCPK:MZDAY). TSLA&#39;s market cap is currently $986.92 billion, while the combination of these 12 companies is $777.41 billion.<blockquote>特斯拉的市值比丰田(TM)、大众(OTCPK：VWAGY)、戴姆勒(OTCPK：DDAIF)、宝马(OTCPK：BMWYY)、通用汽车(GM)、福特(F)、本田(HMC)的总和还要大)、法拉利(RACE)、日产(OTCPK：NSANY)、斯巴鲁(OTCPK：FUJHY)、沃尔沃(OTCPK：VOLAF)和马自达(OTCPK：MZDAY)。特斯拉的市值目前为9869.2亿美元，而这12家公司的市值总和为7774.1亿美元。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff930d2442bf282c1bd880cca408eb94\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛</blockquote>The P/S ratio is often cited to justify the valuation. The combination of TM, VWAGY, DDAIF, BMWYY, GM, F, HMC, RACE, NSANY, FUJHY, VOLAF, and MZDAY has generated $1.38 trillion in revenue over the TTM, putting their P/S at 0.56, while TSLA has generated $62.19 billion in revenue and has a 15.87 P/S.<blockquote>市盈率经常被用来证明估值的合理性。TM、VWAGY、DDAIF、BMWYY、GM、F、HMC、RACE、NSANY、FUJHY、VOLAF和MZDAY的组合在TTM上创造了1.38万亿美元的收入，市盈率为0.56，而TSLA则创造了621.9亿美元的收入，市盈率为15.87。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9b9661fde232925a758c38fd2e93f36\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛，寻求阿尔法</blockquote>As a combined entity, these 12 companies have generated $118.29 billion in net income, while TSLA has produced $8.4 billion.<blockquote>作为一个合并后的实体，这12家公司创造了1182.9亿美元的净利润，而TSLA创造了84亿美元。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d25806eb839eb9ca2b4ef3c24218048c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛，寻求阿尔法</blockquote>TSLA is a great company, but its current valuation has become overly inflated. TSLA&#39;s market cap is $209.52 billion larger than these 12 auto manufacturers, yet the combination of the 12 auto manufacturers generates $1.32 trillion more in revenue and $109.89 billion more in net income.<blockquote>特斯拉是一家伟大的公司，但其目前的估值已经过度膨胀。特斯拉的市值比这12家汽车制造商高出2095.2亿美元，但这12家汽车制造商加起来的收入多出1.32万亿美元，净利润多出1098.9亿美元。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1b686de4009ca733ff9651ce0d9fcaf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛，寻求阿尔法</blockquote>Looking at the market caps, one would assume that TSLA has a dominant majority over its competitors in auto sales within the U.S. According to the2021 data, TSLA sold 2.02% of all vehicles in the U.S. TSLA&#39;s market cap reflects a level of dominance that is non-existent.<blockquote>从市值来看，人们会认为特斯拉在美国的汽车销量中比竞争对手占据主导地位。根据2021年的数据，TSLA的销量占美国所有汽车的2.02%。TSLA的市值反映了不存在的主导地位。</blockquote>Realistically, TSLA will have a hard time disrupting the sector further due to the price point of their vehicles. The reality is that, unless TSLA can sell a car that rivals a Honda or Toyota, doubling its market share is going to be a daunting task. It&#39;s just math. TSLA doesn&#39;t have a product for the masses, and while it may continue to grow in the luxury segment, the amount of growth that can be achieved is limited due to the pricing power of the consumer.<blockquote>实际上，由于其车辆的价格，特斯拉将很难进一步扰乱该行业。现实情况是，除非特斯拉能够销售出与本田或丰田相媲美的汽车，否则将其市场份额翻一番将是一项艰巨的任务。只是数学而已。特斯拉没有面向大众的产品，虽然它在豪华车领域可能会继续增长，但由于消费者的定价能力，所能实现的增长是有限的。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/442ffe151dd83bc524785857925f9797\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>www.goodcarbadcar.net<blockquote>www.goodcarbadcar.net</blockquote>Tesla Isn&#39;t A Technology Company And Shouldn&#39;t Be Valued As One<blockquote>特斯拉不是一家科技公司，也不应该被视为一家科技公司</blockquote>The valuation rebuttal has always been that TSLA isn&#39;t an automobile company, rather, it&#39;s a technology company.<blockquote>估值反驳一直是特斯拉不是一家汽车公司，而是一家科技公司。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbc9ccb2cb8a0e7d40804db24e183214\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Tesla<blockquote>特斯拉</blockquote>Page 23 ofTSLA&#39;s Q1 2022 slide deck from their earnings call is their statement of operations. Once again, 100% of TSLA&#39;s gross profit and net income are derived from automobiles. Energy generation and storage lose money as it generates $616 million in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $688 million. The same goes for Services and others, as this segment generates $1.279 billion in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $1.286 billion. This doesn&#39;t even factor in operating expenses.<blockquote>特斯拉2022年第一季度收益看涨期权幻灯片的第23页是他们的运营报表。再次，TSLA的毛利润和净利润100%来自汽车。能源生产和存储亏损，因为它产生了6.16亿美元的收入，而该收入的成本为6.88亿美元。服务和其他部门也是如此，因为该部门产生了12.79亿美元的收入，而该收入的成本为12.86亿美元。这甚至没有考虑运营费用。</blockquote>TSLA manufacturers state of the art automobiles, but this doesn&#39;t classify them as a technology company, nor should they be classified as one. Since this is always the rebuttal and technology companies trade at larger earnings multiples, I will compare TSLA to Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), and Meta Platforms (FB) and illustrate why TSLA is still drastically overvalued if the market was still to provide it with a tech multiple.<blockquote>TSLA制造最先进的汽车，但这并不能将它们归类为科技公司，也不应该归类为科技公司。由于这始终是反驳，而且科技公司的市盈率较高，我将将TSLA与苹果(AAPL)、微软(MSFT)、亚马逊(AMZN)、Alphabet(GOOG)(GOOGL)和Meta Platforms进行比较(FB)并说明如果市场仍然为特斯拉提供科技市盈率，为什么特斯拉仍然被严重高估。</blockquote>Prior to the comparisons, I want to frame the analysis by providing each company&#39;s market cap:<blockquote>在进行比较之前，我想通过提供每家公司的市值来构建分析：</blockquote><ul><li>AAPL $2.69 Trillion</li><li>MSFT $2.17 Trillion</li><li>GOOGL $1.62 Trillion</li><li>AMZN $1.28 Trillion</li><li>TSLA $986.92 Billion</li><li>FB $604.62 Billion</li></ul>I am going to start with growth because this is always the key metric bulls point out. Since the close of 2018, which is 3.25 fiscal years, TSLA has grown its revenue from $21.46 billion to $62.19 billion.<blockquote><ul><li>苹果公司2.69万亿美元</li><li>MSFT 2.17万亿美元</li><li>GOOGL 1.62万亿美元</li><li>AMZN 1.28万亿美元</li><li>特斯拉9869.2亿美元</li><li>FB 6046.2亿美元</li></ul>我将从增长开始，因为这始终是多头指出的关键指标。自2018年底（即3.25财年）以来，TSLA的收入已从214.6亿美元增长至621.9亿美元。</blockquote>This is absolutely remarkable, but it doesn&#39;t place TSLA in the upper epsilon of technology companies. Over the same period, FB grew its revenue by $63.83 billion, which is more than what TSLA produced in the TTM. FB grew its revenue by more than what TSLA produces and generates just about double the revenue ($119.67 billion), yet TSLA has a larger market cap. For everyone who has used growth as their investment premise, FB having a market cap that&#39;s $382.30 less than TSLA nullifies that aspect of the bull thesis. AMZN&#39;s market cap is only $294.33 billion larger than TSLA, yet they generated $477.75 billion in revenue and grew their revenue by $341.76 billion in this period. Using revenue growth for TSLA doesn&#39;t support the valuation.<blockquote>这绝对是了不起的，但它并没有将特斯拉置于科技公司的上位。同期，FB的收入增长了638.3亿美元，超过了TSLA在TTM中的收入。FB的收入增长超过了TSLA的收入，几乎是其收入的两倍（1196.7亿美元），但TSLA的市值更大。对于每个以增长为投资前提的人来说，FB的市值比TSLA低382.30美元，这使得牛市论点的这一方面无效。AMZN的市值仅比TSLA大2943.3亿美元，但他们创造了4777.5亿美元的收入，在此期间收入增长了3417.6亿美元。使用TSLA的收入增长并不支持估值。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c0fbd4eb93f026c4575ee8f77f53e4b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛，寻求阿尔法</blockquote>Next, I will turn to profits because, at the end of the day, businesses are in the business of making money. Once again, TSLA has done a fantastic job of monetizing its business and, in 3.25 short years, has gone from losing -$976 million to make $8.4 billion in the TTM for an increase of $9.38 billion. FB has produced $37.34 billion in profit in the TTM, and its net income grew by $15.23 billion over this period. Using growth doesn&#39;t support the valuation when FB has a market cap that&#39;s $382.30 less than TSLA and grew its profits in this period by almost double what TSLA has generated in the TTM.<blockquote>接下来，我将转向利润，因为归根结底，企业是在赚钱。TSLA再次在业务货币化方面做得非常出色，在短短3.25年内，TTM从亏损9.76亿美元增至84亿美元，增加了93.8亿美元。FB在TTM创造了373.4亿美元的利润，净利润在此期间增长了152.3亿美元。当FB的市值比TSLA低382.30美元，并且在此期间的利润增长几乎是TSLA在TTM中的两倍时，使用增长并不能支持估值。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9716477607711ee0b6d4f77eb24c890\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛，寻求阿尔法</blockquote>The new metric bulls are using in their thesis is TSLA&#39;s free cash flow (FCF). Once again, TSLA has done an excellent job, going from -$221 million of FCF in 2018 to $6.93 billion of FCF in the TTM. Many companies would love to grow their annual FCF by $7.15 billion over a 3.25-year period, and this should be applauded.<blockquote>多头在论文中使用的新指标是特斯拉的自由现金流（FCF）。TSLA再次表现出色，从2018年的-2.21亿美元自由现金流增至TTM的69.3亿美元自由现金流。许多公司希望在3.25年内将其年度自由现金流增加71.5亿美元，这应该受到赞扬。</blockquote>Let&#39;s look at FB once again, since TSLA&#39;s valuation isn&#39;t based on its core segment as an automobile manufacturer. FB has grown its FCF over the previous 3.25 years by $23.45 billion, more than 3x TSLA&#39;s growth, and has generated $39.81 billion of FCF in the TTM. FB generated roughly 5.75x more FCF than TSLA and grew its FCF by more than 3x what TSLA produces, yet FB has a market cap that&#39;s almost $400 billion less than TSLA. Growth within the financials does not support TSLA&#39;s valuation, which is a breath away from $1 trillion.<blockquote>让我们再次看看FB，因为TSLA的估值并不是基于其作为汽车制造商的核心细分市场。FB的FCF在过去3.25年中增长了234.5亿美元，是TSLA增长的3倍多，并在TTM中产生了398.1亿美元的FCF。FB产生的自由现金流大约是TSLA的5.75倍，其自由现金流增长是TSLA的3倍多，但FB的市值比TSLA少近4000亿美元。金融界的增长并不能支撑TSLA的估值，该估值距离1万亿美元仅一步之遥。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/902a7074eda9e8f2f2765e0833423d2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛，寻求阿尔法</blockquote>Today you&#39;re paying a 113.81 P/E for TSLA. Paying a larger multiple for a company that&#39;s growing its earnings quickly is normal, but TSLA isn&#39;t growing by larger amounts than FB, and FB trades at a 16.66 P/E. I have seen TSLA bulls justify the P/E because of TSLA&#39;s growth factor, but this doesn&#39;t hold up when FB has grown by larger amounts from larger starting positions and has a P/E that&#39;s a fraction of TSLA. Look at AAPL, which is the largest company in the world. AAPL has grown its net income by $56.25 billion and its FCF by $52.3 billion over the past 3.25 years, and its P/E is 26.78. People are blindly paying any multiple the market places on TSLA.<blockquote>今天，您为TSLA支付的市盈率为113.81。为一家盈利快速增长的公司支付更高的市盈率是正常的，但TSLA的增长幅度并不比FB大，FB的市盈率为16.66。我见过TSLA多头因为TSLA的增长因素而证明市盈率是合理的，但当FB从较大的起始头寸增长了更多并且市盈率只是TSLA的一小部分时，这就不成立了。看看AAPL，它是世界上最大的公司。过去3.25年，AAPL的净利润增长了562.5亿美元，自由现金流增长了523亿美元，市盈率为26.78。人们盲目地支付特斯拉市场份额的任何倍数。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75168f6e39ced721cf0c53d78481a983\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TSLA is trading at a 15.38 P/S. The justification for this multiple is difficult to defend while AMZN trades at a P/S of 11.31. AMZN&#39;s revenue grew by $341.76 billion over the past 3.25 years while TSLA grew their revenue by $40.73 billion. Instead of an absolute basis, looking at this from a percentage aspect, TSLA grew its revenue by 189.78%, while AMZN&#39;s grew by 251.32%. The P/S ratio is not a supporting valuation metric as TSLA is trading at a larger multiple than AMZN yet produced $301.03 billion less in revenue growth compared to AMZN. At the very least, TSLA should trade at a lower P/S multiple than AMZN considering their revenue growth was a fraction of AMZN&#39;s.<blockquote>TSLA的交易价格为15.38 P/S。当AMZN的市盈率为11.31时，这一市盈率的合理性很难辩护。过去3.25年，AMZN的收入增长了3417.6亿美元，而TSLA的收入增长了407.3亿美元。从百分比来看，特斯拉的收入增长了189.78%，而亚马逊的收入增长了251.32%，而不是绝对基数。市盈率并不是一个支持性的估值指标，因为TSLA的市盈率高于AMZN，但与AMZN相比，其收入增长却少了3010.3亿美元。至少，考虑到特斯拉的收入增长只是亚马逊的一小部分，特斯拉的市盈率应该低于亚马逊。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aad00a6c490808962705a1a2dae45cfe\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TSLA has done an excellent job monetizing its revenue, delivering exceptional margins, and generating FCF. Now that TSLA is generating billions in FCF, it&#39;s been inserted into the bull thesis. FCF is a measure of profitability that excludes the non-cash expenses of the income statement and includes spending on equipment and assets as well as changes in working capital from the balance sheet. FCF could be the most underrated and most important financial metric to look at, as this is the pool of capital that companies can utilize to repay debt, pay dividends, buy back shares, make acquisitions, or reinvest in the business.<blockquote>特斯拉在收入货币化、提供卓越的利润率和产生自由现金流方面做得非常出色。现在，特斯拉正在产生数十亿美元的自由现金流，它已被纳入牛市论点。FCF是衡量盈利能力的指标，不包括损益表中的非现金费用，包括设备和资产支出以及资产负债表中营运资本的变化。自由现金流可能是最被低估和最重要的财务指标，因为这是公司可以用来偿还债务、支付股息、回购股票、进行收购或对业务进行再投资的资本池。</blockquote>Every investment is the present value of all future cash flow. This is why investors look at the price to FCF valuation. Investors want to pay the cheapest multiple for a company&#39;s FCF. Today, you&#39;re paying 142.52x TSLA&#39;s FCF. Going back to the FCF section, TSLA grew its FCF by $7.15 billion over the past 3.25 years. FB generated $23.45 billion of FCF in this period, which is 3x the amount TSLA grew, yet FB is trading at a 15.19x multiple on price to FCF.<blockquote>每一项投资都是未来所有现金流的现值。这就是为什么投资者关注自由现金流估值的价格。投资者希望为公司的自由现金流支付最便宜的倍数。今天，您支付的是TSLA自由现金流的142.52倍。回到自由现金流部分，TSLA的自由现金流在过去3.25年中增长了71.5亿美元。FB在此期间产生了234.5亿美元的FCF，是TSLA增长金额的3倍，但FB的市盈率是FCF的15.19倍。</blockquote>Why on earth would you want to pay 142.52x for TSLA&#39;s FCF when you could pay 15.19x for FB, which is growing their FCF by more than 3x the amount that TSLA is growing by? How about AAPL? AAPL grew its FCF by $52.3 billion and trades at a 25.4x price to FCF. If I exclude FB for a moment, should TSLA trade at a larger FCF multiple than GOOGL, which has grown its FCF by $46.15 billion over the past 3.25 years? My answer is no because there is no guarantee that TSLA will ever generate $46.15 billion in annual FCF, let alone the $68.99 billion in FCF that GOOGL generates.<blockquote>当您可以为FB支付15.19倍的FCF时，您究竟为什么要为TSLA的FCF支付142.52倍的费用，而FB的FCF增长速度是TSLA增长速度的3倍以上？苹果公司怎么样？AAPL的自由现金流增加了523亿美元，交易价格是自由现金流的25.4倍。如果我暂时排除FB，TSLA的自由现金流倍数是否应该高于GOOGL，后者的自由现金流在过去3.25年中增长了461.5亿美元？我的答案是否定的，因为无法保证特斯拉每年能够产生461.5亿美元的自由现金流，更不用说GOOGL产生的689.9亿美元的自由现金流了。</blockquote>So what is a fair price to FCF multiple for TSLA? I don&#39;t believe TSLA has earned the right to trade at the same multiples as the rest of big tech considering the levels of FCF they produce. If I stick with the methodology that FB is egregiously undervalued, then TSLA should trade above 15.19x its FCF but lower than the 23.42x multiple GOOGL trades at.<blockquote>那么TSLA的FCF倍数的合理价格是多少呢？考虑到它们产生的自由现金流水平，我认为特斯拉没有赢得与其他大型科技公司相同倍数的交易权利。如果我坚持FB被严重低估的方法论，那么TSLA的交易价格应该高于其FCF的15.19倍，但低于GOOGL交易价格的23.42倍。</blockquote>I don&#39;t want to be overly bearish, so I will place a 21x multiple on TSLA&#39;s FCF, which is more than fair considering big tech metrics. A 21x multiple on TSLA&#39;s FCF puts its market cap at $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion. It&#39;s just math, and if TSLA is going to be valued as a technology company, it needs to be compared to the technology companies with similar market caps.<blockquote>我不想过于悲观，因此我将TSLA的自由现金流设定为21倍，考虑到大型科技指标，这是非常公平的。TSLA自由现金流的21倍使其市值达到1454.3亿美元，较目前9869.2亿美元的市值下降了-85.26%。这只是数学问题，如果特斯拉要作为一家科技公司进行估值，就需要与市值相似的科技公司进行比较。</blockquote>At the very least, there isn&#39;t a single reason why TSLA&#39;s market cap is larger than FB&#39;s. There isn&#39;t a single metric that TSLA beats FB in. Based on FB&#39;s valuation, if TSLA traded at the same FCF multiple, it would have a market cap of $105.19 billion.<blockquote>至少，TSLA的市值大于FB的原因并不是单一的。TSLA没有一个指标能击败FB。根据FB的估值，如果TSLA以相同的FCF倍数交易，其市值将达到1051.9亿美元。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b81a61d60d9ec098276569cc4a501da0\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TSLA has a gross profit margin of 27.1% ($16.85b / $62.19b) and a profit margin of 13.51% ($8.4b / $62.19b). FB has a gross profit margin of 80.34% ($96.14b / $119.67b) and a profit margin of 31.2% ($37.34b / $119.67b). FB has much wider margins and is growing its revenue by larger amounts. This reinforces my methodology as to why TSLA is grossly overvalued. GOOGL has a gross profit margin of 56.93% ($153.9b / $270.33b) and a profit margin of 27.57% ($74.54b / $270.33b).<blockquote>TSLA的毛利率为27.1%（$16.85 B/$62.19 B），利润率为13.51%（$8.4 B/$62.19 B）。FB的毛利率为80.34%（$96.14 B/$119.67 B），利润率为31.2%（$37.34 B/$119.67 B）。FB的利润率要高得多，收入也在大幅增长。这强化了我关于为什么特斯拉被严重高估的方法论。GOOGL的毛利率为56.93%（$153.9 B/$270.33 B），利润率为27.57%（$745.4 B/$270.33 B）。</blockquote>The chances are incredibly slim that TSLA can double its profit margin to be within striking distance of GOOGL&#39;s. TSLA should not trade at a larger FCF, P/E, or P/S multiple than FB or GOOGL. While the market would indicate that I am wrong today, eventually, the hype will wear off, and TSLA will trade at a realistic valuation.<blockquote>特斯拉将利润率提高一倍，与GOOGL相提并论的可能性微乎其微。TSLA的自由现金流、市盈率或市盈率不应高于FB或GOOGL。虽然市场今天会表明我错了，但最终，炒作将会消退，特斯拉将以现实的估值进行交易。</blockquote>TSLA&#39;s Future Catalysts Have A Long Way To Go Before Impacting Its Bottom Line<blockquote>特斯拉未来的催化剂在影响其利润之前还有很长的路要走</blockquote>There are three main catalysts people discuss, which include insurance, robotaxis, and FSD.TSLA offers insurance using real-time driving behavior. This is currently available to all Model S, Model 3, Model X, and Model Y owners. The catch is that it&#39;s only available in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Ohio, Oregon, Texas, and Virginia as of now.<blockquote>人们讨论的催化剂主要有三个，包括保险、机器人出租车和FSD.TSLA使用实时驾驶行为提供保险。目前，所有Model S、Model 3、Model X和Model Y车主均可使用该功能。问题是，目前它仅在亚利桑那州、科罗拉多州、伊利诺伊州、俄亥俄州、俄勒冈州、德克萨斯州和弗吉尼亚州可用。</blockquote>TSLA uses a safety rating score to determine the monthly premium for its vehicles. At the largest premium of $130/mo, this would be $1,560 per year. If TSLA converted 100% of their U.S sales in 2021 as an insurance customer, which I think could be possible if TSLA insurance was available in every state, it would have generated $471.12 million in revenue.<blockquote>特斯拉使用安全评级分数来确定其车辆的每月保费。以130美元/月的最大保费计算，每年为1,560美元。如果TSLA在2021年将其在美国的销售额100%转化为保险客户（我认为如果每个州都提供TSLA保险，这是可能的），那么它将产生4.7112亿美元的收入。</blockquote>We have no idea what the margins would have been, but if the margin was 50%, it would have been an additional $235.56 million in net income in 2021. While this is nothing to sneeze at, an additional $235.56 million in net income hardly moves the needle. This could be a $1 billion top-line revenue segment in the future, but with availability in only 7 states, insurance&#39;s $1 billion revenue mark is a long way away.<blockquote>我们不知道利润率是多少，但如果利润率为50%，2021年净利润将增加2.3556亿美元。虽然这不容小觑，但额外的2.3556亿美元净利润几乎没有什么影响。这可能是未来10亿美元的营收部分，但由于仅在7个州提供服务，保险业10亿美元的收入大关还有很长的路要走。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e86de6232b9abf7cee46a9607eb09741\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Tesla<blockquote>特斯拉</blockquote>Next,FSD, for which TSLA has created two subscription models, a $99/mo price point and a $199/mo price point. The problem with FSD is that it doesn&#39;t make the vehicle fully autonomous, and you still need a driver to be attentive and alert. While I am not arguing that TSLA&#39;s FSD isn&#39;t leaps and bounds ahead of the competition, the problem is that it&#39;s not exactly a self-driving car.<blockquote>接下来是FSD，TSLA为其创建了两种订阅模式，99美元/月的价格点和199美元/月的价格点。FSD的问题在于，它不能使车辆完全自动驾驶，您仍然需要驾驶员保持专注和警觉。虽然我并不是说TSLA的FSD没有在竞争中遥遥领先，但问题是它并不完全是自动驾驶汽车。</blockquote>The questions around legality and where you can use it pop into my head, and how many of TSLA&#39;s drivers opt for this upgrade. Until there is clear legislation and the technology advances to where vehicles can fully drive a person from point A to B while that person takes a nap or reads, I have a hard time believing enough TSLA owners will spend the extra $199/mo on FSD. If there is somewhere where TSLA produces the numbers about how many owners opt for this package, please let me know, and I will crunch the numbers.<blockquote>有关合法性和在哪里可以使用它的问题突然出现在我的脑海中，以及有多少TSLA的司机选择了这种升级。在有明确的立法和技术进步到车辆可以在一个人午睡或阅读的时候完全驾驶一个人从A点到B点之前，我很难相信有足够多的TSLA车主会在FSD上额外花费199美元/月。如果TSLA在某个地方提供了有关有多少车主选择此套餐的数据，请让我知道，我将处理这些数据。</blockquote>Which Features Come With My Subscription?<blockquote>我的订阅附带哪些功能？</blockquote>The FSD capability features you receive are based on your configuration and location. Not all features are available in all markets, and features are subject to change.Learn more about Autopilot and Full Self-Driving capability features.Note: These features are designed to become more capable over time; however the currently enabled features do not make the vehicle autonomous. The currently enabled features require a fully attentive driver, who has their hands on the wheel and is prepared to take over at any moment.The last catalyst is Robotaxis which many have commented on in my articles before. We&#39;re so far off on Robotaxis that this can&#39;t be considered in TSLA&#39;s upcoming revenue. I would think major legislation would be needed for Robotaxis to exist, and there is no telling how many years away we are from this.<blockquote>您收到的FSD功能基于您的配置和位置。并非所有功能在所有市场都可用，并且功能可能会发生变化。了解有关Autopilot和全自动驾驶功能的更多信息。注意：这些功能旨在随着时间的推移变得更强大；然而，当前启用的特征并不能使车辆自主。目前启用的功能需要一个全神贯注的驾驶员，他的手放在方向盘上，随时准备接管。最后一个催化剂是机器人出租车，许多人在我之前的文章中评论过。我们在机器人出租车方面的差距太大，以至于不能在特斯拉即将到来的收入中考虑这一点。我认为机器人出租车的存在需要重大立法，而且不知道我们还需要多少年。</blockquote>Also, what is the percentage of TSLA owners that would actually allow their vehicle to be used as a Robotaxi? Depending on what the profitability is, I can see people buying TSLAs to enroll them in this program, but, once again, we need to see the economics behind it. I know I am just one opinion, but I would never enroll one of my cars into a robotaxi program because I don&#39;t want other people that I don&#39;t know in my car. I would think there are many others that have similar viewpoints.<blockquote>另外，真正允许他们的车辆用作机器人出租车的TSLA车主比例是多少？根据盈利能力，我可以看到人们购买特斯拉来加入这个计划，但是，我们需要再次看到其背后的经济学。我知道我只是一种观点，但我永远不会让我的一辆车加入机器人出租车计划，因为我不想让我不认识的其他人在我的车里。我想还有很多人有类似的观点。</blockquote>The real upcoming catalysts are future revenue growth and entering the Chinese market. In 2021 TSLA grew its YoY revenue by 70.67%, and their off to a great start after Q1 2022. Only time will tell what type of growth rate TSLA can maintain, but too many people are assuming that TSLA will obliterate the competition. Over the next several years, we could see TSLA&#39;s growth rate become significantly reduced as more luxury operators put EVs on the road.<blockquote>真正即将到来的催化剂是未来的收入增长和进入中国市场。2021年，特斯拉收入同比增长70.67%，在2022年第一季度之后取得了良好的开端。只有时间才能证明特斯拉能够保持什么样的增长率，但太多人认为特斯拉将消灭竞争对手。在接下来的几年里，随着更多的豪华运营商将电动汽车上路，我们可能会看到特斯拉的增长率大幅下降。</blockquote>At TSLA&#39;s current margins, they would need to increase their revenue by 444.55% to $276.47 billion to produce the same amount of net income ($37.34b) that FB produces today at their current 13.51% profit margin. Maybe TSLA can get there in the future, but why should TSLA be valued at almost $1 trillion today, considering not a single metric of theirs is similar to FB or GOOGL, and TSLA&#39;s growth across any of the sectors isn&#39;t larger than FB or GOOGL?<blockquote>按照TSLA目前的利润率，他们需要将收入增加444.55%，达到2,764.7亿美元，才能产生与FB目前13.51%利润率相同的净利润($37.34 B)。也许TSLA未来可以实现这一目标，但为什么TSLA今天的估值应该接近1万亿美元，因为他们没有一个指标与FB或GOOGL相似，而且TSLA在任何领域的增长都不比FB或GOOGL大？</blockquote>Tesla Continues To Dilute Shareholders, And Almost No Shareholders Care<blockquote>特斯拉不断稀释股东，几乎没有股东关心</blockquote>Dilution kills shareholder value. Look, I am a shareholder of TSLA, and I hate that my shares continue to be diluted. These numbers are split-adjusted that I am using. Over the past decade,TSLA has diluted its shares by 80.93%. This is horrible compared to big tech, yet investors can&#39;t buy enough TSLA shares. TSLA finished 2012 with 572.6 million shares and, as of its last filing, had increased its outstanding shares to 1.036 billion shares.<blockquote>稀释会扼杀股东价值。听着，我是特斯拉的股东，我讨厌我的股份继续被稀释。这些数字是我正在使用的分割调整的。过去十年，TSLA的股份稀释了80.93%。与大型科技公司相比，这是可怕的，但投资者无法购买足够的特斯拉股票。截至2012年底，特斯拉持有5.726亿股股票，截至上次提交文件，其流通股已增至10.36亿股。</blockquote>This is the equivalent of me taking a pizza, and instead of giving you a slice, cutting another 6.5 slices, then giving you one. The pizza represents TSLA, the company, and they basically turned an 8-slice pie into a 14.5-slice pie, reducing shareholder&#39;s ownership and the amount of equity, revenue, and EPS our shares represent.<blockquote>这相当于我拿了一个披萨，不是给你一片，而是再切6.5片，然后给你一片。披萨代表TSLA公司，他们基本上将8片馅饼变成了14.5片馅饼，减少了股东所有权以及我们的股票所代表的股本、收入和每股收益。</blockquote>If you want to see what a true shepherd of shareholder value looks like, turn to AAPL. In 2012 AAPL had 26.3 billion shares outstanding. Over the past decade, AAPL has repurchased 10.09 billion shares, reducing its outstanding shares by 38.37%. Every quarter, AAPL is buying back shares and increasing the ownership its shares represent. TSLA, on the other hand, continues to dilute shareholders by increasing shares YOY.<blockquote>如果您想了解真正的股东价值牧羊人是什么样子，请转向AAPL。2012年，AAPL拥有263亿股已发行股票。过去十年，AAPL回购了100.9亿股，流通股减少了38.37%。每个季度，苹果公司都会回购股票并增加其股票所代表的所有权。另一方面，特斯拉继续通过同比增持来稀释股东权益。</blockquote>I Could Be Completely Wrong, And Tesla Could Continue Growing At These Rates<blockquote>我可能完全错了，特斯拉可能会继续以这样的速度增长</blockquote>TSLA&#39;s vehicle deliveries continue to outpace its growing production. YoY TSLA&#39;s deliveries increased by 68% in Q1, adding 125,171 delivered vehicles to its customers. TSLA just began Model Y deliveries from the Austin facility, and production at the Gigafactory in Berlin started in March of 2022. TSLA&#39;s Shanghai facility had strong production rates prior to the spike in COVID that resulted in temporary shutdowns. TSLA isn&#39;t just focusing on the U.S, they have Europe and China in their sights.<blockquote>特斯拉的汽车交付量继续超过其产量增长速度。特斯拉第一季度的交付量同比增长68%，向客户交付了125,171辆汽车。TSLA刚刚开始从奥斯汀工厂交付Model Y，柏林超级工厂的生产于2022年3月开始。在新冠疫情激增导致暂时关闭之前，特斯拉上海工厂的生产率强劲。特斯拉不仅仅关注美国，他们还将目光投向了欧洲和中国。</blockquote>EVs accounted for 488,000 sales in the U.S for 2021, and the previous projection was that EVs would account for 670,000 units sold in 2022. Oil has hovered around $100 per barrel and could render the previous projections of 37% increased EV sales domestically for 2022 conservative. TSLA is in a prime position to capitalize on this trend. In 2021 TSLA vehicles accounted for 61.89% of EVs sold in the U.S (301,998 / 488,000).<blockquote>2021年，电动汽车在美国的销量为488,000辆，此前的预测是2022年电动汽车的销量将达到670,000辆。油价一直徘徊在每桶100美元左右，这可能会使之前对2022年国内电动汽车销量增长37%的预测变得保守。特斯拉处于利用这一趋势的有利位置。2021年，TSLA汽车占美国电动汽车销量的61.89%（301,998/488,000辆）。</blockquote>Hypothetically, if the previous projection of 670,000 EV sales for 2022 is accurate and TSLA maintains its current margin, they would sell 414,628 vehicles throughout the U.S in 2022. If gas prices do alter the decision-making process when deciding between a combustible engine or an EV, then TSLA could continue surprising the market with QoQ earnings beats.<blockquote>假设，如果之前对2022年电动汽车销量670,000辆的预测是准确的，并且TSLA保持目前的利润率，那么2022年他们将在美国销售414,628辆汽车。如果汽油价格确实改变了在决定燃油发动机还是电动汽车时的决策过程，那么特斯拉可能会继续以季度盈利超出市场预期。</blockquote>The U.S has a national goal of reaching 50% of domestic auto sales coming from EVs. In 2021, EVs accounted for 3.26% of total sales in the U.S auto market. Based on U.S auto sales in 2021, annual EV sales would need to grow by 6,989,403 to reach a 50% EV to combustible engine ratio. Hypothetically if U.S auto sales stayed flat but EVs reached 50% of the market in 2030 they would sell 7,477,403 vehicles. If TSLA&#39;s dominance in the EV sector was to drop from 61.89% to 15% due to increased competition, they would generate 1,121,610 in sales compared to 301,998 in 2021. When you add in Europe and China, TSLA certainly has the ability to become a top auto manufacturer by sales next decade.<blockquote>美国的国家目标是电动汽车占国内汽车销量的50%。2021年，电动汽车占美国汽车市场总销量的3.26%。根据2021年美国汽车销量，电动汽车年销量需要增长6,989,403辆，才能达到电动汽车与内燃机的比例50%。假设，如果美国汽车销量持平，但电动汽车在2030年达到市场的50%，他们将售出7,477,403辆汽车。如果特斯拉在电动汽车领域的主导地位因竞争加剧而从61.89%下降至15%，那么它们的销量将为1,121,610辆，而2021年为301,998辆。如果加上欧洲和中国，特斯拉当然有能力在未来十年成为销量第一的汽车制造商。</blockquote>Bulls aren&#39;t incorrect to be excited about TSLA. The world is moving toward EVs, and TSLA is the crème de la crème. As I said in the beginning, I am bullish about TSLA&#39;s future prospects, but I think the valuation today is overinflated. Nobody can predict the future, but I have no doubt that TSLA will continue to grow its sales YoY.<blockquote>多头对特斯拉感到兴奋并没有错。世界正在走向电动汽车，而TSLA是其中的佼佼者。正如我一开始所说，我看好TSLA的未来前景，但我认为今天的估值被夸大了。没有人能预测未来，但我毫不怀疑特斯拉的销量将继续同比增长。</blockquote>The question becomes, how much growth will they be able to achieve YoY? In 2021, TM generated $226.48 billion of revenue and, based on the future of EVs, TSLA certainly could achieve this level of revenue in the future. Based on TSLA&#39;s current 13.51% profit margin, if they achieved TM&#39;s level of revenue, they would generate $30.59 billion of net income, which would definitely make today&#39;s valuation look more realistic.<blockquote>问题变成了，他们能够实现多少同比增长？2021年，TM创造了2264.8亿美元的收入，基于电动汽车的未来，TSLA未来肯定可以达到这一收入水平。基于TSLA目前13.51%的利润率，如果他们达到TM的收入水平，他们将产生305.9亿美元的净利润，这肯定会让今天的估值看起来更加现实。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c9176fa9bebc2c940e038cafd23229\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Tesla<blockquote>特斯拉</blockquote>Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote>You&#39;re probably wondering how I can be a shareholder and be a bear on TSLA&#39;s valuation at the same time. It&#39;s simple; my wife bought shares of TSLA, which makes me a shareholder. My stance has always been bullish on the company and bearish on the valuation. What Elon Musk and the team at TSLA has accomplished is astonishing, and they deserve nothing but respect.<blockquote>你可能想知道我怎么能既是股东又看跌特斯拉估值。很简单；我的妻子购买了特斯拉的股票，这使我成为股东。我的立场一直是看多公司，看空估值。埃隆·马斯克和特斯拉团队所取得的成就令人惊叹，他们只值得尊重。</blockquote>Keep in mind a company and a company&#39;s stock are two separate things. TSLA continues to dilute shareholders, and they and the market are valuing TSLA as if it&#39;s FB or GOOGL. TSLA is not a technology company; it&#39;s an automobile company, as the automotive segments drive 100% of its gross revenue and net income.<blockquote>请记住，公司和公司的股票是两回事。特斯拉继续稀释股东权益，他们和市场对特斯拉的估值就好像它是FB或GOOGL一样。TSLA不是一家科技公司；它是一家汽车公司，因为汽车部门占其总收入和净利润的100%。</blockquote>TSLA is trading at a P/E of 113.81, a P/S of 15.38, and a 142.52x multiple on its FCF. The numbers are drastically inflated as TSLA has no business trading at a larger P/S multiple than AMZN, which trades at 11.31 P/S when it has grown its revenue by $341.76 billion over the previous 3.25 years compared to TSLA&#39;s $40.73 billion of revenue growth. TSLA has generated $6.93 billion in FCF over the TTM, while Mr. Market has placed a 142.52x multiple on TSLA due to $7.15 billion FCF growth over the past 3.25 years. FB trades at a 15.19x FCF multiple while growing FCF by $23.45 billion over this period which is more than 3x what TSLA has generated in the TTM.<blockquote>TSLA的市盈率为113.81倍，市盈率为15.38倍，自由现金流倍数为142.52倍。这些数字被严重夸大了，因为TSLA的市盈率没有比AMZN更高的业务，AMZN的市盈率为11.31，而TSLA的收入在过去3.25年中增长了3,417.6亿美元，而TSLA的收入增长为407.3亿美元。TSLA通过TTM产生了69.3亿美元的自由现金流，而Mr由于过去3.25年FCF增长71.5亿美元，市场对TSLA的评级为142.52倍。FB的FCF市盈率为15.19倍，而在此期间FCF增长了234.5亿美元，是TSLA在TTM中产生的3倍多。</blockquote>With FB trading at 15.19x FCF, GOOGL at 23.42x FCF, and AAPL at 25.4x FCF, it&#39;s hard to justify any number above 20x for TSLA. I think a 21x FCF multiple is generous and that places TSLA at a market cap of $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion.<blockquote>FB的交易价格为15.19倍FCF，GOOGL为23.42倍FCF，AAPL为25.4倍FCF，因此很难证明TSLA的任何高于20倍的数字是合理的。我认为21倍的自由现金流倍数是慷慨的，这使得TSLA的市值达到1,454.3亿美元，比目前9,869.2亿美元的市值下降了-85.26%。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4507535-tesla-overvalued-by-85-26-percent-and-not-a-technology-company\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4507535-tesla-overvalued-by-85-26-percent-and-not-a-technology-company","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131831539","content_text":"SummaryMake no mistake, Tesla is a phenomenal company that has accomplished the unthinkable as it broke through extreme barriers of entry to disrupt the auto industry.Just because Tesla is a successful company that is causing automotive titans to change from combustible engines to EVs doesn't mean Tesla's stock is a good investment today.100% of gross profit and net income is generated from the automotive sector as Tesla's other businesses lose money, making them an automobile manufacturing company, not a technology company.I compared Tesla's metrics to the auto industry and big tech and the results are the same, Tesla's valuation is egregious.It's rare to find companies that have cult-like followings with loyalists willing to pay any price for its stock. The debate regarding Tesla, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:TSLA) valuation continues to be a topic of conversation between the bulls and the bears. Oneside argues that TSLA's financial growth and future prospects, including FSD, insurance, and robotaxis, justify the current $902.12 billion valuations, while others argue that the current financials and cult-like following have led to a massive overvaluation in TSLA's stock.I tip my hat to Elon Musk, as his accomplishments are second to none. When others called him crazy, Mr. Musk chose one of the hardest industries to compete in, started TSLA from the ground up, went to battle against the auto manufacturers, and succeeded. TSLA is one of the rare success stories that has truly shaped an industry, and the barriers of entry that were overcome are astonishing. TSLA didn't have the capital, manufacturing, credibility, or the infrastructure that its competitors did, yet they found a way to succeed. If the odds weren't enough which TSLA faced, they accomplished their goals without a combustible engine and pioneered an entirely new sector within the automotive industry.Just because TSLA is a great company, it doesn't mean TSLA has a great stock, or it isn't overvalued. I am not bearish on TSLA the company because I believe they still have a long runway of growth ahead of them, but I am bearish on the valuation. Prior to leaving a comment on why I am wrong, please read the article and think about the metrics I am citing; then, I will happily discuss any viewpoints about the analysis.Tesla Vs. The World In The Automotive SectorIt feels like TSLA vs. the world whenever TSLA is discussed. Discussing who makes a better automobile is a matter of opinion, and everyone is correct because it's their opinion. If person A thinks TSLA makes the best car and person B thinks Mercedes Benz makes the best car, they are both correct. Debating over this is pointless, so let's look at the raw numbers.TSLA has a larger market cap than the combination ofToyota(TM),Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY),Daimler(OTCPK:DDAIF),BMW(OTCPK:BMWYY),General Motors(GM),Ford(F),Honda(HMC),Ferrari(RACE),Nissan(OTCPK:NSANY),Subaru(OTCPK:FUJHY),Volvo(OTCPK:VOLAF), andMazda(OTCPK:MZDAY). TSLA's market cap is currently $986.92 billion, while the combination of these 12 companies is $777.41 billion.Steven FiorilloThe P/S ratio is often cited to justify the valuation. The combination of TM, VWAGY, DDAIF, BMWYY, GM, F, HMC, RACE, NSANY, FUJHY, VOLAF, and MZDAY has generated $1.38 trillion in revenue over the TTM, putting their P/S at 0.56, while TSLA has generated $62.19 billion in revenue and has a 15.87 P/S.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaAs a combined entity, these 12 companies have generated $118.29 billion in net income, while TSLA has produced $8.4 billion.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaTSLA is a great company, but its current valuation has become overly inflated. TSLA's market cap is $209.52 billion larger than these 12 auto manufacturers, yet the combination of the 12 auto manufacturers generates $1.32 trillion more in revenue and $109.89 billion more in net income.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaLooking at the market caps, one would assume that TSLA has a dominant majority over its competitors in auto sales within the U.S. According to the2021 data, TSLA sold 2.02% of all vehicles in the U.S. TSLA's market cap reflects a level of dominance that is non-existent.Realistically, TSLA will have a hard time disrupting the sector further due to the price point of their vehicles. The reality is that, unless TSLA can sell a car that rivals a Honda or Toyota, doubling its market share is going to be a daunting task. It's just math. TSLA doesn't have a product for the masses, and while it may continue to grow in the luxury segment, the amount of growth that can be achieved is limited due to the pricing power of the consumer.www.goodcarbadcar.netTesla Isn't A Technology Company And Shouldn't Be Valued As OneThe valuation rebuttal has always been that TSLA isn't an automobile company, rather, it's a technology company.TeslaPage 23 ofTSLA's Q1 2022 slide deck from their earnings call is their statement of operations. Once again, 100% of TSLA's gross profit and net income are derived from automobiles. Energy generation and storage lose money as it generates $616 million in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $688 million. The same goes for Services and others, as this segment generates $1.279 billion in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $1.286 billion. This doesn't even factor in operating expenses.TSLA manufacturers state of the art automobiles, but this doesn't classify them as a technology company, nor should they be classified as one. Since this is always the rebuttal and technology companies trade at larger earnings multiples, I will compare TSLA to Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), and Meta Platforms (FB) and illustrate why TSLA is still drastically overvalued if the market was still to provide it with a tech multiple.Prior to the comparisons, I want to frame the analysis by providing each company's market cap:AAPL $2.69 TrillionMSFT $2.17 TrillionGOOGL $1.62 TrillionAMZN $1.28 TrillionTSLA $986.92 BillionFB $604.62 BillionI am going to start with growth because this is always the key metric bulls point out. Since the close of 2018, which is 3.25 fiscal years, TSLA has grown its revenue from $21.46 billion to $62.19 billion.This is absolutely remarkable, but it doesn't place TSLA in the upper epsilon of technology companies. Over the same period, FB grew its revenue by $63.83 billion, which is more than what TSLA produced in the TTM. FB grew its revenue by more than what TSLA produces and generates just about double the revenue ($119.67 billion), yet TSLA has a larger market cap. For everyone who has used growth as their investment premise, FB having a market cap that's $382.30 less than TSLA nullifies that aspect of the bull thesis. AMZN's market cap is only $294.33 billion larger than TSLA, yet they generated $477.75 billion in revenue and grew their revenue by $341.76 billion in this period. Using revenue growth for TSLA doesn't support the valuation.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaNext, I will turn to profits because, at the end of the day, businesses are in the business of making money. Once again, TSLA has done a fantastic job of monetizing its business and, in 3.25 short years, has gone from losing -$976 million to make $8.4 billion in the TTM for an increase of $9.38 billion. FB has produced $37.34 billion in profit in the TTM, and its net income grew by $15.23 billion over this period. Using growth doesn't support the valuation when FB has a market cap that's $382.30 less than TSLA and grew its profits in this period by almost double what TSLA has generated in the TTM.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaThe new metric bulls are using in their thesis is TSLA's free cash flow (FCF). Once again, TSLA has done an excellent job, going from -$221 million of FCF in 2018 to $6.93 billion of FCF in the TTM. Many companies would love to grow their annual FCF by $7.15 billion over a 3.25-year period, and this should be applauded.Let's look at FB once again, since TSLA's valuation isn't based on its core segment as an automobile manufacturer. FB has grown its FCF over the previous 3.25 years by $23.45 billion, more than 3x TSLA's growth, and has generated $39.81 billion of FCF in the TTM. FB generated roughly 5.75x more FCF than TSLA and grew its FCF by more than 3x what TSLA produces, yet FB has a market cap that's almost $400 billion less than TSLA. Growth within the financials does not support TSLA's valuation, which is a breath away from $1 trillion.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaToday you're paying a 113.81 P/E for TSLA. Paying a larger multiple for a company that's growing its earnings quickly is normal, but TSLA isn't growing by larger amounts than FB, and FB trades at a 16.66 P/E. I have seen TSLA bulls justify the P/E because of TSLA's growth factor, but this doesn't hold up when FB has grown by larger amounts from larger starting positions and has a P/E that's a fraction of TSLA. Look at AAPL, which is the largest company in the world. AAPL has grown its net income by $56.25 billion and its FCF by $52.3 billion over the past 3.25 years, and its P/E is 26.78. People are blindly paying any multiple the market places on TSLA.TSLA is trading at a 15.38 P/S. The justification for this multiple is difficult to defend while AMZN trades at a P/S of 11.31. AMZN's revenue grew by $341.76 billion over the past 3.25 years while TSLA grew their revenue by $40.73 billion. Instead of an absolute basis, looking at this from a percentage aspect, TSLA grew its revenue by 189.78%, while AMZN's grew by 251.32%. The P/S ratio is not a supporting valuation metric as TSLA is trading at a larger multiple than AMZN yet produced $301.03 billion less in revenue growth compared to AMZN. At the very least, TSLA should trade at a lower P/S multiple than AMZN considering their revenue growth was a fraction of AMZN's.TSLA has done an excellent job monetizing its revenue, delivering exceptional margins, and generating FCF. Now that TSLA is generating billions in FCF, it's been inserted into the bull thesis. FCF is a measure of profitability that excludes the non-cash expenses of the income statement and includes spending on equipment and assets as well as changes in working capital from the balance sheet. FCF could be the most underrated and most important financial metric to look at, as this is the pool of capital that companies can utilize to repay debt, pay dividends, buy back shares, make acquisitions, or reinvest in the business.Every investment is the present value of all future cash flow. This is why investors look at the price to FCF valuation. Investors want to pay the cheapest multiple for a company's FCF. Today, you're paying 142.52x TSLA's FCF. Going back to the FCF section, TSLA grew its FCF by $7.15 billion over the past 3.25 years. FB generated $23.45 billion of FCF in this period, which is 3x the amount TSLA grew, yet FB is trading at a 15.19x multiple on price to FCF.Why on earth would you want to pay 142.52x for TSLA's FCF when you could pay 15.19x for FB, which is growing their FCF by more than 3x the amount that TSLA is growing by? How about AAPL? AAPL grew its FCF by $52.3 billion and trades at a 25.4x price to FCF. If I exclude FB for a moment, should TSLA trade at a larger FCF multiple than GOOGL, which has grown its FCF by $46.15 billion over the past 3.25 years? My answer is no because there is no guarantee that TSLA will ever generate $46.15 billion in annual FCF, let alone the $68.99 billion in FCF that GOOGL generates.So what is a fair price to FCF multiple for TSLA? I don't believe TSLA has earned the right to trade at the same multiples as the rest of big tech considering the levels of FCF they produce. If I stick with the methodology that FB is egregiously undervalued, then TSLA should trade above 15.19x its FCF but lower than the 23.42x multiple GOOGL trades at.I don't want to be overly bearish, so I will place a 21x multiple on TSLA's FCF, which is more than fair considering big tech metrics. A 21x multiple on TSLA's FCF puts its market cap at $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion. It's just math, and if TSLA is going to be valued as a technology company, it needs to be compared to the technology companies with similar market caps.At the very least, there isn't a single reason why TSLA's market cap is larger than FB's. There isn't a single metric that TSLA beats FB in. Based on FB's valuation, if TSLA traded at the same FCF multiple, it would have a market cap of $105.19 billion.TSLA has a gross profit margin of 27.1% ($16.85b / $62.19b) and a profit margin of 13.51% ($8.4b / $62.19b). FB has a gross profit margin of 80.34% ($96.14b / $119.67b) and a profit margin of 31.2% ($37.34b / $119.67b). FB has much wider margins and is growing its revenue by larger amounts. This reinforces my methodology as to why TSLA is grossly overvalued. GOOGL has a gross profit margin of 56.93% ($153.9b / $270.33b) and a profit margin of 27.57% ($74.54b / $270.33b).The chances are incredibly slim that TSLA can double its profit margin to be within striking distance of GOOGL's. TSLA should not trade at a larger FCF, P/E, or P/S multiple than FB or GOOGL. While the market would indicate that I am wrong today, eventually, the hype will wear off, and TSLA will trade at a realistic valuation.TSLA's Future Catalysts Have A Long Way To Go Before Impacting Its Bottom LineThere are three main catalysts people discuss, which include insurance, robotaxis, and FSD.TSLA offers insurance using real-time driving behavior. This is currently available to all Model S, Model 3, Model X, and Model Y owners. The catch is that it's only available in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Ohio, Oregon, Texas, and Virginia as of now.TSLA uses a safety rating score to determine the monthly premium for its vehicles. At the largest premium of $130/mo, this would be $1,560 per year. If TSLA converted 100% of their U.S sales in 2021 as an insurance customer, which I think could be possible if TSLA insurance was available in every state, it would have generated $471.12 million in revenue.We have no idea what the margins would have been, but if the margin was 50%, it would have been an additional $235.56 million in net income in 2021. While this is nothing to sneeze at, an additional $235.56 million in net income hardly moves the needle. This could be a $1 billion top-line revenue segment in the future, but with availability in only 7 states, insurance's $1 billion revenue mark is a long way away.TeslaNext,FSD, for which TSLA has created two subscription models, a $99/mo price point and a $199/mo price point. The problem with FSD is that it doesn't make the vehicle fully autonomous, and you still need a driver to be attentive and alert. While I am not arguing that TSLA's FSD isn't leaps and bounds ahead of the competition, the problem is that it's not exactly a self-driving car.The questions around legality and where you can use it pop into my head, and how many of TSLA's drivers opt for this upgrade. Until there is clear legislation and the technology advances to where vehicles can fully drive a person from point A to B while that person takes a nap or reads, I have a hard time believing enough TSLA owners will spend the extra $199/mo on FSD. If there is somewhere where TSLA produces the numbers about how many owners opt for this package, please let me know, and I will crunch the numbers.Which Features Come With My Subscription?The FSD capability features you receive are based on your configuration and location. Not all features are available in all markets, and features are subject to change.Learn more about Autopilot and Full Self-Driving capability features.Note: These features are designed to become more capable over time; however the currently enabled features do not make the vehicle autonomous. The currently enabled features require a fully attentive driver, who has their hands on the wheel and is prepared to take over at any moment.The last catalyst is Robotaxis which many have commented on in my articles before. We're so far off on Robotaxis that this can't be considered in TSLA's upcoming revenue. I would think major legislation would be needed for Robotaxis to exist, and there is no telling how many years away we are from this.Also, what is the percentage of TSLA owners that would actually allow their vehicle to be used as a Robotaxi? Depending on what the profitability is, I can see people buying TSLAs to enroll them in this program, but, once again, we need to see the economics behind it. I know I am just one opinion, but I would never enroll one of my cars into a robotaxi program because I don't want other people that I don't know in my car. I would think there are many others that have similar viewpoints.The real upcoming catalysts are future revenue growth and entering the Chinese market. In 2021 TSLA grew its YoY revenue by 70.67%, and their off to a great start after Q1 2022. Only time will tell what type of growth rate TSLA can maintain, but too many people are assuming that TSLA will obliterate the competition. Over the next several years, we could see TSLA's growth rate become significantly reduced as more luxury operators put EVs on the road.At TSLA's current margins, they would need to increase their revenue by 444.55% to $276.47 billion to produce the same amount of net income ($37.34b) that FB produces today at their current 13.51% profit margin. Maybe TSLA can get there in the future, but why should TSLA be valued at almost $1 trillion today, considering not a single metric of theirs is similar to FB or GOOGL, and TSLA's growth across any of the sectors isn't larger than FB or GOOGL?Tesla Continues To Dilute Shareholders, And Almost No Shareholders CareDilution kills shareholder value. Look, I am a shareholder of TSLA, and I hate that my shares continue to be diluted. These numbers are split-adjusted that I am using. Over the past decade,TSLA has diluted its shares by 80.93%. This is horrible compared to big tech, yet investors can't buy enough TSLA shares. TSLA finished 2012 with 572.6 million shares and, as of its last filing, had increased its outstanding shares to 1.036 billion shares.This is the equivalent of me taking a pizza, and instead of giving you a slice, cutting another 6.5 slices, then giving you one. The pizza represents TSLA, the company, and they basically turned an 8-slice pie into a 14.5-slice pie, reducing shareholder's ownership and the amount of equity, revenue, and EPS our shares represent.If you want to see what a true shepherd of shareholder value looks like, turn to AAPL. In 2012 AAPL had 26.3 billion shares outstanding. Over the past decade, AAPL has repurchased 10.09 billion shares, reducing its outstanding shares by 38.37%. Every quarter, AAPL is buying back shares and increasing the ownership its shares represent. TSLA, on the other hand, continues to dilute shareholders by increasing shares YOY.I Could Be Completely Wrong, And Tesla Could Continue Growing At These RatesTSLA's vehicle deliveries continue to outpace its growing production. YoY TSLA's deliveries increased by 68% in Q1, adding 125,171 delivered vehicles to its customers. TSLA just began Model Y deliveries from the Austin facility, and production at the Gigafactory in Berlin started in March of 2022. TSLA's Shanghai facility had strong production rates prior to the spike in COVID that resulted in temporary shutdowns. TSLA isn't just focusing on the U.S, they have Europe and China in their sights.EVs accounted for 488,000 sales in the U.S for 2021, and the previous projection was that EVs would account for 670,000 units sold in 2022. Oil has hovered around $100 per barrel and could render the previous projections of 37% increased EV sales domestically for 2022 conservative. TSLA is in a prime position to capitalize on this trend. In 2021 TSLA vehicles accounted for 61.89% of EVs sold in the U.S (301,998 / 488,000).Hypothetically, if the previous projection of 670,000 EV sales for 2022 is accurate and TSLA maintains its current margin, they would sell 414,628 vehicles throughout the U.S in 2022. If gas prices do alter the decision-making process when deciding between a combustible engine or an EV, then TSLA could continue surprising the market with QoQ earnings beats.The U.S has a national goal of reaching 50% of domestic auto sales coming from EVs. In 2021, EVs accounted for 3.26% of total sales in the U.S auto market. Based on U.S auto sales in 2021, annual EV sales would need to grow by 6,989,403 to reach a 50% EV to combustible engine ratio. Hypothetically if U.S auto sales stayed flat but EVs reached 50% of the market in 2030 they would sell 7,477,403 vehicles. If TSLA's dominance in the EV sector was to drop from 61.89% to 15% due to increased competition, they would generate 1,121,610 in sales compared to 301,998 in 2021. When you add in Europe and China, TSLA certainly has the ability to become a top auto manufacturer by sales next decade.Bulls aren't incorrect to be excited about TSLA. The world is moving toward EVs, and TSLA is the crème de la crème. As I said in the beginning, I am bullish about TSLA's future prospects, but I think the valuation today is overinflated. Nobody can predict the future, but I have no doubt that TSLA will continue to grow its sales YoY.The question becomes, how much growth will they be able to achieve YoY? In 2021, TM generated $226.48 billion of revenue and, based on the future of EVs, TSLA certainly could achieve this level of revenue in the future. Based on TSLA's current 13.51% profit margin, if they achieved TM's level of revenue, they would generate $30.59 billion of net income, which would definitely make today's valuation look more realistic.TeslaConclusionYou're probably wondering how I can be a shareholder and be a bear on TSLA's valuation at the same time. It's simple; my wife bought shares of TSLA, which makes me a shareholder. My stance has always been bullish on the company and bearish on the valuation. What Elon Musk and the team at TSLA has accomplished is astonishing, and they deserve nothing but respect.Keep in mind a company and a company's stock are two separate things. TSLA continues to dilute shareholders, and they and the market are valuing TSLA as if it's FB or GOOGL. TSLA is not a technology company; it's an automobile company, as the automotive segments drive 100% of its gross revenue and net income.TSLA is trading at a P/E of 113.81, a P/S of 15.38, and a 142.52x multiple on its FCF. The numbers are drastically inflated as TSLA has no business trading at a larger P/S multiple than AMZN, which trades at 11.31 P/S when it has grown its revenue by $341.76 billion over the previous 3.25 years compared to TSLA's $40.73 billion of revenue growth. TSLA has generated $6.93 billion in FCF over the TTM, while Mr. Market has placed a 142.52x multiple on TSLA due to $7.15 billion FCF growth over the past 3.25 years. FB trades at a 15.19x FCF multiple while growing FCF by $23.45 billion over this period which is more than 3x what TSLA has generated in the TTM.With FB trading at 15.19x FCF, GOOGL at 23.42x FCF, and AAPL at 25.4x FCF, it's hard to justify any number above 20x for TSLA. I think a 21x FCF multiple is generous and that places TSLA at a market cap of $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":616724724,"gmtCreate":1652020144968,"gmtModify":1652020147140,"author":{"id":"3574813808924805","authorId":"3574813808924805","name":"JemLIm","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee9608155c1d123b0bf9fc773916aac7","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574813808924805","authorIdStr":"3574813808924805"},"htmlText":"Long article","listText":"Long article","text":"Long article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/616724724","repostId":1131831539,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131831539","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1651980653,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131831539?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-05-08 11:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Overvalued By 85.26% And Not A Technology Company<blockquote>特斯拉：高估85.26%不是科技公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131831539","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryMake no mistake, Tesla is a phenomenal company that has accomplished the unthinkable as it broke through extreme barriers of entry to disrupt the auto industry.Just because Tesla is a successfu","content":"<html><head></head><body>Summary<blockquote><html><head></head><body>总结</body></html></blockquote><ul><li>Make no mistake, Tesla is a phenomenal company that has accomplished the unthinkable as it broke through extreme barriers of entry to disrupt the auto industry.</li><li>Just because Tesla is a successful company that is causing automotive titans to change from combustible engines to EVs doesn&#39;t mean Tesla&#39;s stock is a good investment today.</li><li>100% of gross profit and net income is generated from the automotive sector as Tesla&#39;s other businesses lose money, making them an automobile manufacturing company, not a technology company.</li><li>I compared Tesla&#39;s metrics to the auto industry and big tech and the results are the same, Tesla&#39;s valuation is egregious.</li></ul>It&#39;s rare to find companies that have cult-like followings with loyalists willing to pay any price for its stock. The debate regarding Tesla, Inc.&#39;s (NASDAQ:TSLA) valuation continues to be a topic of conversation between the bulls and the bears. Oneside argues that TSLA&#39;s financial growth and future prospects, including FSD, insurance, and robotaxis, justify the current $902.12 billion valuations, while others argue that the current financials and cult-like following have led to a massive overvaluation in TSLA&#39;s stock.<blockquote><ul><li>毫无疑问，特斯拉是一家非凡的公司，它突破了极端的进入壁垒，颠覆了汽车行业，取得了不可思议的成就。</li><li>仅仅因为特斯拉是一家成功的公司，正在推动汽车巨头从内燃机转向电动汽车，并不意味着特斯拉的股票今天是一项不错的投资。</li><li>由于特斯拉的其他业务都在亏损，100%的毛利润和净利润都来自汽车部门，这使他们成为一家汽车制造公司，而不是一家科技公司。</li><li>我将特斯拉的指标与汽车行业和大型科技公司进行了比较，结果是相同的，特斯拉的估值令人震惊。</li></ul>很少有公司拥有狂热的追随者，忠诚者愿意为其股票支付任何价格。关于特斯拉公司（纳斯达克：TSLA）估值的争论仍然是多头和空头之间的话题。Oneside认为，TSLA的财务增长和未来前景（包括FSD、保险和机器人出租车）证明了当前9021.2亿美元的估值是合理的，而其他人则认为，当前的财务状况和狂热的追随者导致了TSLA股票的大幅高估。</blockquote>I tip my hat to Elon Musk, as his accomplishments are second to none. When others called him crazy, Mr. Musk chose one of the hardest industries to compete in, started TSLA from the ground up, went to battle against the auto manufacturers, and succeeded. TSLA is one of the rare success stories that has truly shaped an industry, and the barriers of entry that were overcome are astonishing. TSLA didn&#39;t have the capital, manufacturing, credibility, or the infrastructure that its competitors did, yet they found a way to succeed. If the odds weren&#39;t enough which TSLA faced, they accomplished their goals without a combustible engine and pioneered an entirely new sector within the automotive industry.<blockquote>我向埃隆·马斯克致敬，因为他的成就是首屈一指的。当别人说他疯了时，马斯克先生选择了一个最难竞争的行业，白手起家创办了特斯拉，与汽车制造商作战，并取得了成功。特斯拉是真正塑造了一个行业的罕见成功故事之一，所克服的进入壁垒令人惊讶。特斯拉不像竞争对手那样拥有资本、制造、信誉或基础设施，但他们找到了成功的方法。如果特斯拉面临的机会还不够，他们在没有燃油发动机的情况下实现了目标，并在汽车行业开创了一个全新的领域。</blockquote>Just because TSLA is a great company, it doesn&#39;t mean TSLA has a great stock, or it isn&#39;t overvalued. I am not bearish on TSLA the company because I believe they still have a long runway of growth ahead of them, but I am bearish on the valuation. Prior to leaving a comment on why I am wrong, please read the article and think about the metrics I am citing; then, I will happily discuss any viewpoints about the analysis.<blockquote>仅仅因为特斯拉是一家伟大的公司，并不意味着特斯拉有一只伟大的股票，或者它没有被高估。我并不看跌特斯拉这家公司，因为我相信他们还有很长的增长之路，但我看跌估值。在评论我为什么错之前，请阅读这篇文章并思考我引用的指标；然后，我会很乐意讨论任何关于分析的观点。</blockquote>Tesla Vs. The World In The Automotive Sector<blockquote>特斯拉与汽车领域的世界</blockquote>It feels like TSLA vs. the world whenever TSLA is discussed. Discussing who makes a better automobile is a matter of opinion, and everyone is correct because it&#39;s their opinion. If person A thinks TSLA makes the best car and person B thinks Mercedes Benz makes the best car, they are both correct. Debating over this is pointless, so let&#39;s look at the raw numbers.<blockquote>每当讨论特斯拉时，感觉就像特斯拉对抗世界。讨论谁制造的汽车更好是见仁见智的问题，每个人都是正确的，因为这是他们的观点。如果A人认为特斯拉制造的汽车最好，B人认为奔驰制造的汽车最好，那么他们都是正确的。争论这个是没有意义的，所以让我们看看原始数据。</blockquote>TSLA has a larger market cap than the combination ofToyota(TM),Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY),Daimler(OTCPK:DDAIF),BMW(OTCPK:BMWYY),General Motors(GM),Ford(F),Honda(HMC),Ferrari(RACE),Nissan(OTCPK:NSANY),Subaru(OTCPK:FUJHY),Volvo(OTCPK:VOLAF), andMazda(OTCPK:MZDAY). TSLA&#39;s market cap is currently $986.92 billion, while the combination of these 12 companies is $777.41 billion.<blockquote>特斯拉的市值比丰田(TM)、大众(OTCPK：VWAGY)、戴姆勒(OTCPK：DDAIF)、宝马(OTCPK：BMWYY)、通用汽车(GM)、福特(F)、本田(HMC)的总和还要大)、法拉利(RACE)、日产(OTCPK：NSANY)、斯巴鲁(OTCPK：FUJHY)、沃尔沃(OTCPK：VOLAF)和马自达(OTCPK：MZDAY)。特斯拉的市值目前为9869.2亿美元，而这12家公司的市值总和为7774.1亿美元。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff930d2442bf282c1bd880cca408eb94\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛</blockquote>The P/S ratio is often cited to justify the valuation. The combination of TM, VWAGY, DDAIF, BMWYY, GM, F, HMC, RACE, NSANY, FUJHY, VOLAF, and MZDAY has generated $1.38 trillion in revenue over the TTM, putting their P/S at 0.56, while TSLA has generated $62.19 billion in revenue and has a 15.87 P/S.<blockquote>市盈率经常被用来证明估值的合理性。TM、VWAGY、DDAIF、BMWYY、GM、F、HMC、RACE、NSANY、FUJHY、VOLAF和MZDAY的组合在TTM上创造了1.38万亿美元的收入，市盈率为0.56，而TSLA则创造了621.9亿美元的收入，市盈率为15.87。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9b9661fde232925a758c38fd2e93f36\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛，寻求阿尔法</blockquote>As a combined entity, these 12 companies have generated $118.29 billion in net income, while TSLA has produced $8.4 billion.<blockquote>作为一个合并后的实体，这12家公司创造了1182.9亿美元的净利润，而TSLA创造了84亿美元。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d25806eb839eb9ca2b4ef3c24218048c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛，寻求阿尔法</blockquote>TSLA is a great company, but its current valuation has become overly inflated. TSLA&#39;s market cap is $209.52 billion larger than these 12 auto manufacturers, yet the combination of the 12 auto manufacturers generates $1.32 trillion more in revenue and $109.89 billion more in net income.<blockquote>特斯拉是一家伟大的公司，但其目前的估值已经过度膨胀。特斯拉的市值比这12家汽车制造商高出2095.2亿美元，但这12家汽车制造商加起来的收入多出1.32万亿美元，净利润多出1098.9亿美元。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1b686de4009ca733ff9651ce0d9fcaf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛，寻求阿尔法</blockquote>Looking at the market caps, one would assume that TSLA has a dominant majority over its competitors in auto sales within the U.S. According to the2021 data, TSLA sold 2.02% of all vehicles in the U.S. TSLA&#39;s market cap reflects a level of dominance that is non-existent.<blockquote>从市值来看，人们会认为特斯拉在美国的汽车销量中比竞争对手占据主导地位。根据2021年的数据，TSLA的销量占美国所有汽车的2.02%。TSLA的市值反映了不存在的主导地位。</blockquote>Realistically, TSLA will have a hard time disrupting the sector further due to the price point of their vehicles. The reality is that, unless TSLA can sell a car that rivals a Honda or Toyota, doubling its market share is going to be a daunting task. It&#39;s just math. TSLA doesn&#39;t have a product for the masses, and while it may continue to grow in the luxury segment, the amount of growth that can be achieved is limited due to the pricing power of the consumer.<blockquote>实际上，由于其车辆的价格，特斯拉将很难进一步扰乱该行业。现实情况是，除非特斯拉能够销售出与本田或丰田相媲美的汽车，否则将其市场份额翻一番将是一项艰巨的任务。只是数学而已。特斯拉没有面向大众的产品，虽然它在豪华车领域可能会继续增长，但由于消费者的定价能力，所能实现的增长是有限的。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/442ffe151dd83bc524785857925f9797\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>www.goodcarbadcar.net<blockquote>www.goodcarbadcar.net</blockquote>Tesla Isn&#39;t A Technology Company And Shouldn&#39;t Be Valued As One<blockquote>特斯拉不是一家科技公司，也不应该被视为一家科技公司</blockquote>The valuation rebuttal has always been that TSLA isn&#39;t an automobile company, rather, it&#39;s a technology company.<blockquote>估值反驳一直是特斯拉不是一家汽车公司，而是一家科技公司。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbc9ccb2cb8a0e7d40804db24e183214\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Tesla<blockquote>特斯拉</blockquote>Page 23 ofTSLA&#39;s Q1 2022 slide deck from their earnings call is their statement of operations. Once again, 100% of TSLA&#39;s gross profit and net income are derived from automobiles. Energy generation and storage lose money as it generates $616 million in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $688 million. The same goes for Services and others, as this segment generates $1.279 billion in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $1.286 billion. This doesn&#39;t even factor in operating expenses.<blockquote>特斯拉2022年第一季度收益看涨期权幻灯片的第23页是他们的运营报表。再次，TSLA的毛利润和净利润100%来自汽车。能源生产和存储亏损，因为它产生了6.16亿美元的收入，而该收入的成本为6.88亿美元。服务和其他部门也是如此，因为该部门产生了12.79亿美元的收入，而该收入的成本为12.86亿美元。这甚至没有考虑运营费用。</blockquote>TSLA manufacturers state of the art automobiles, but this doesn&#39;t classify them as a technology company, nor should they be classified as one. Since this is always the rebuttal and technology companies trade at larger earnings multiples, I will compare TSLA to Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), and Meta Platforms (FB) and illustrate why TSLA is still drastically overvalued if the market was still to provide it with a tech multiple.<blockquote>TSLA制造最先进的汽车，但这并不能将它们归类为科技公司，也不应该归类为科技公司。由于这始终是反驳，而且科技公司的市盈率较高，我将将TSLA与苹果(AAPL)、微软(MSFT)、亚马逊(AMZN)、Alphabet(GOOG)(GOOGL)和Meta Platforms进行比较(FB)并说明如果市场仍然为特斯拉提供科技市盈率，为什么特斯拉仍然被严重高估。</blockquote>Prior to the comparisons, I want to frame the analysis by providing each company&#39;s market cap:<blockquote>在进行比较之前，我想通过提供每家公司的市值来构建分析：</blockquote><ul><li>AAPL $2.69 Trillion</li><li>MSFT $2.17 Trillion</li><li>GOOGL $1.62 Trillion</li><li>AMZN $1.28 Trillion</li><li>TSLA $986.92 Billion</li><li>FB $604.62 Billion</li></ul>I am going to start with growth because this is always the key metric bulls point out. Since the close of 2018, which is 3.25 fiscal years, TSLA has grown its revenue from $21.46 billion to $62.19 billion.<blockquote><ul><li>苹果公司2.69万亿美元</li><li>MSFT 2.17万亿美元</li><li>GOOGL 1.62万亿美元</li><li>AMZN 1.28万亿美元</li><li>特斯拉9869.2亿美元</li><li>FB 6046.2亿美元</li></ul>我将从增长开始，因为这始终是多头指出的关键指标。自2018年底（即3.25财年）以来，TSLA的收入已从214.6亿美元增长至621.9亿美元。</blockquote>This is absolutely remarkable, but it doesn&#39;t place TSLA in the upper epsilon of technology companies. Over the same period, FB grew its revenue by $63.83 billion, which is more than what TSLA produced in the TTM. FB grew its revenue by more than what TSLA produces and generates just about double the revenue ($119.67 billion), yet TSLA has a larger market cap. For everyone who has used growth as their investment premise, FB having a market cap that&#39;s $382.30 less than TSLA nullifies that aspect of the bull thesis. AMZN&#39;s market cap is only $294.33 billion larger than TSLA, yet they generated $477.75 billion in revenue and grew their revenue by $341.76 billion in this period. Using revenue growth for TSLA doesn&#39;t support the valuation.<blockquote>这绝对是了不起的，但它并没有将特斯拉置于科技公司的上位。同期，FB的收入增长了638.3亿美元，超过了TSLA在TTM中的收入。FB的收入增长超过了TSLA的收入，几乎是其收入的两倍（1196.7亿美元），但TSLA的市值更大。对于每个以增长为投资前提的人来说，FB的市值比TSLA低382.30美元，这使得牛市论点的这一方面无效。AMZN的市值仅比TSLA大2943.3亿美元，但他们创造了4777.5亿美元的收入，在此期间收入增长了3417.6亿美元。使用TSLA的收入增长并不支持估值。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c0fbd4eb93f026c4575ee8f77f53e4b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛，寻求阿尔法</blockquote>Next, I will turn to profits because, at the end of the day, businesses are in the business of making money. Once again, TSLA has done a fantastic job of monetizing its business and, in 3.25 short years, has gone from losing -$976 million to make $8.4 billion in the TTM for an increase of $9.38 billion. FB has produced $37.34 billion in profit in the TTM, and its net income grew by $15.23 billion over this period. Using growth doesn&#39;t support the valuation when FB has a market cap that&#39;s $382.30 less than TSLA and grew its profits in this period by almost double what TSLA has generated in the TTM.<blockquote>接下来，我将转向利润，因为归根结底，企业是在赚钱。TSLA再次在业务货币化方面做得非常出色，在短短3.25年内，TTM从亏损9.76亿美元增至84亿美元，增加了93.8亿美元。FB在TTM创造了373.4亿美元的利润，净利润在此期间增长了152.3亿美元。当FB的市值比TSLA低382.30美元，并且在此期间的利润增长几乎是TSLA在TTM中的两倍时，使用增长并不能支持估值。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9716477607711ee0b6d4f77eb24c890\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛，寻求阿尔法</blockquote>The new metric bulls are using in their thesis is TSLA&#39;s free cash flow (FCF). Once again, TSLA has done an excellent job, going from -$221 million of FCF in 2018 to $6.93 billion of FCF in the TTM. Many companies would love to grow their annual FCF by $7.15 billion over a 3.25-year period, and this should be applauded.<blockquote>多头在论文中使用的新指标是特斯拉的自由现金流（FCF）。TSLA再次表现出色，从2018年的-2.21亿美元自由现金流增至TTM的69.3亿美元自由现金流。许多公司希望在3.25年内将其年度自由现金流增加71.5亿美元，这应该受到赞扬。</blockquote>Let&#39;s look at FB once again, since TSLA&#39;s valuation isn&#39;t based on its core segment as an automobile manufacturer. FB has grown its FCF over the previous 3.25 years by $23.45 billion, more than 3x TSLA&#39;s growth, and has generated $39.81 billion of FCF in the TTM. FB generated roughly 5.75x more FCF than TSLA and grew its FCF by more than 3x what TSLA produces, yet FB has a market cap that&#39;s almost $400 billion less than TSLA. Growth within the financials does not support TSLA&#39;s valuation, which is a breath away from $1 trillion.<blockquote>让我们再次看看FB，因为TSLA的估值并不是基于其作为汽车制造商的核心细分市场。FB的FCF在过去3.25年中增长了234.5亿美元，是TSLA增长的3倍多，并在TTM中产生了398.1亿美元的FCF。FB产生的自由现金流大约是TSLA的5.75倍，其自由现金流增长是TSLA的3倍多，但FB的市值比TSLA少近4000亿美元。金融界的增长并不能支撑TSLA的估值，该估值距离1万亿美元仅一步之遥。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/902a7074eda9e8f2f2765e0833423d2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛，寻求阿尔法</blockquote>Today you&#39;re paying a 113.81 P/E for TSLA. Paying a larger multiple for a company that&#39;s growing its earnings quickly is normal, but TSLA isn&#39;t growing by larger amounts than FB, and FB trades at a 16.66 P/E. I have seen TSLA bulls justify the P/E because of TSLA&#39;s growth factor, but this doesn&#39;t hold up when FB has grown by larger amounts from larger starting positions and has a P/E that&#39;s a fraction of TSLA. Look at AAPL, which is the largest company in the world. AAPL has grown its net income by $56.25 billion and its FCF by $52.3 billion over the past 3.25 years, and its P/E is 26.78. People are blindly paying any multiple the market places on TSLA.<blockquote>今天，您为TSLA支付的市盈率为113.81。为一家盈利快速增长的公司支付更高的市盈率是正常的，但TSLA的增长幅度并不比FB大，FB的市盈率为16.66。我见过TSLA多头因为TSLA的增长因素而证明市盈率是合理的，但当FB从较大的起始头寸增长了更多并且市盈率只是TSLA的一小部分时，这就不成立了。看看AAPL，它是世界上最大的公司。过去3.25年，AAPL的净利润增长了562.5亿美元，自由现金流增长了523亿美元，市盈率为26.78。人们盲目地支付特斯拉市场份额的任何倍数。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75168f6e39ced721cf0c53d78481a983\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TSLA is trading at a 15.38 P/S. The justification for this multiple is difficult to defend while AMZN trades at a P/S of 11.31. AMZN&#39;s revenue grew by $341.76 billion over the past 3.25 years while TSLA grew their revenue by $40.73 billion. Instead of an absolute basis, looking at this from a percentage aspect, TSLA grew its revenue by 189.78%, while AMZN&#39;s grew by 251.32%. The P/S ratio is not a supporting valuation metric as TSLA is trading at a larger multiple than AMZN yet produced $301.03 billion less in revenue growth compared to AMZN. At the very least, TSLA should trade at a lower P/S multiple than AMZN considering their revenue growth was a fraction of AMZN&#39;s.<blockquote>TSLA的交易价格为15.38 P/S。当AMZN的市盈率为11.31时，这一市盈率的合理性很难辩护。过去3.25年，AMZN的收入增长了3417.6亿美元，而TSLA的收入增长了407.3亿美元。从百分比来看，特斯拉的收入增长了189.78%，而亚马逊的收入增长了251.32%，而不是绝对基数。市盈率并不是一个支持性的估值指标，因为TSLA的市盈率高于AMZN，但与AMZN相比，其收入增长却少了3010.3亿美元。至少，考虑到特斯拉的收入增长只是亚马逊的一小部分，特斯拉的市盈率应该低于亚马逊。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aad00a6c490808962705a1a2dae45cfe\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TSLA has done an excellent job monetizing its revenue, delivering exceptional margins, and generating FCF. Now that TSLA is generating billions in FCF, it&#39;s been inserted into the bull thesis. FCF is a measure of profitability that excludes the non-cash expenses of the income statement and includes spending on equipment and assets as well as changes in working capital from the balance sheet. FCF could be the most underrated and most important financial metric to look at, as this is the pool of capital that companies can utilize to repay debt, pay dividends, buy back shares, make acquisitions, or reinvest in the business.<blockquote>特斯拉在收入货币化、提供卓越的利润率和产生自由现金流方面做得非常出色。现在，特斯拉正在产生数十亿美元的自由现金流，它已被纳入牛市论点。FCF是衡量盈利能力的指标，不包括损益表中的非现金费用，包括设备和资产支出以及资产负债表中营运资本的变化。自由现金流可能是最被低估和最重要的财务指标，因为这是公司可以用来偿还债务、支付股息、回购股票、进行收购或对业务进行再投资的资本池。</blockquote>Every investment is the present value of all future cash flow. This is why investors look at the price to FCF valuation. Investors want to pay the cheapest multiple for a company&#39;s FCF. Today, you&#39;re paying 142.52x TSLA&#39;s FCF. Going back to the FCF section, TSLA grew its FCF by $7.15 billion over the past 3.25 years. FB generated $23.45 billion of FCF in this period, which is 3x the amount TSLA grew, yet FB is trading at a 15.19x multiple on price to FCF.<blockquote>每一项投资都是未来所有现金流的现值。这就是为什么投资者关注自由现金流估值的价格。投资者希望为公司的自由现金流支付最便宜的倍数。今天，您支付的是TSLA自由现金流的142.52倍。回到自由现金流部分，TSLA的自由现金流在过去3.25年中增长了71.5亿美元。FB在此期间产生了234.5亿美元的FCF，是TSLA增长金额的3倍，但FB的市盈率是FCF的15.19倍。</blockquote>Why on earth would you want to pay 142.52x for TSLA&#39;s FCF when you could pay 15.19x for FB, which is growing their FCF by more than 3x the amount that TSLA is growing by? How about AAPL? AAPL grew its FCF by $52.3 billion and trades at a 25.4x price to FCF. If I exclude FB for a moment, should TSLA trade at a larger FCF multiple than GOOGL, which has grown its FCF by $46.15 billion over the past 3.25 years? My answer is no because there is no guarantee that TSLA will ever generate $46.15 billion in annual FCF, let alone the $68.99 billion in FCF that GOOGL generates.<blockquote>当您可以为FB支付15.19倍的FCF时，您究竟为什么要为TSLA的FCF支付142.52倍的费用，而FB的FCF增长速度是TSLA增长速度的3倍以上？苹果公司怎么样？AAPL的自由现金流增加了523亿美元，交易价格是自由现金流的25.4倍。如果我暂时排除FB，TSLA的自由现金流倍数是否应该高于GOOGL，后者的自由现金流在过去3.25年中增长了461.5亿美元？我的答案是否定的，因为无法保证特斯拉每年能够产生461.5亿美元的自由现金流，更不用说GOOGL产生的689.9亿美元的自由现金流了。</blockquote>So what is a fair price to FCF multiple for TSLA? I don&#39;t believe TSLA has earned the right to trade at the same multiples as the rest of big tech considering the levels of FCF they produce. If I stick with the methodology that FB is egregiously undervalued, then TSLA should trade above 15.19x its FCF but lower than the 23.42x multiple GOOGL trades at.<blockquote>那么TSLA的FCF倍数的合理价格是多少呢？考虑到它们产生的自由现金流水平，我认为特斯拉没有赢得与其他大型科技公司相同倍数的交易权利。如果我坚持FB被严重低估的方法论，那么TSLA的交易价格应该高于其FCF的15.19倍，但低于GOOGL交易价格的23.42倍。</blockquote>I don&#39;t want to be overly bearish, so I will place a 21x multiple on TSLA&#39;s FCF, which is more than fair considering big tech metrics. A 21x multiple on TSLA&#39;s FCF puts its market cap at $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion. It&#39;s just math, and if TSLA is going to be valued as a technology company, it needs to be compared to the technology companies with similar market caps.<blockquote>我不想过于悲观，因此我将TSLA的自由现金流设定为21倍，考虑到大型科技指标，这是非常公平的。TSLA自由现金流的21倍使其市值达到1454.3亿美元，较目前9869.2亿美元的市值下降了-85.26%。这只是数学问题，如果特斯拉要作为一家科技公司进行估值，就需要与市值相似的科技公司进行比较。</blockquote>At the very least, there isn&#39;t a single reason why TSLA&#39;s market cap is larger than FB&#39;s. There isn&#39;t a single metric that TSLA beats FB in. Based on FB&#39;s valuation, if TSLA traded at the same FCF multiple, it would have a market cap of $105.19 billion.<blockquote>至少，TSLA的市值大于FB的原因并不是单一的。TSLA没有一个指标能击败FB。根据FB的估值，如果TSLA以相同的FCF倍数交易，其市值将达到1051.9亿美元。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b81a61d60d9ec098276569cc4a501da0\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TSLA has a gross profit margin of 27.1% ($16.85b / $62.19b) and a profit margin of 13.51% ($8.4b / $62.19b). FB has a gross profit margin of 80.34% ($96.14b / $119.67b) and a profit margin of 31.2% ($37.34b / $119.67b). FB has much wider margins and is growing its revenue by larger amounts. This reinforces my methodology as to why TSLA is grossly overvalued. GOOGL has a gross profit margin of 56.93% ($153.9b / $270.33b) and a profit margin of 27.57% ($74.54b / $270.33b).<blockquote>TSLA的毛利率为27.1%（$16.85 B/$62.19 B），利润率为13.51%（$8.4 B/$62.19 B）。FB的毛利率为80.34%（$96.14 B/$119.67 B），利润率为31.2%（$37.34 B/$119.67 B）。FB的利润率要高得多，收入也在大幅增长。这强化了我关于为什么特斯拉被严重高估的方法论。GOOGL的毛利率为56.93%（$153.9 B/$270.33 B），利润率为27.57%（$745.4 B/$270.33 B）。</blockquote>The chances are incredibly slim that TSLA can double its profit margin to be within striking distance of GOOGL&#39;s. TSLA should not trade at a larger FCF, P/E, or P/S multiple than FB or GOOGL. While the market would indicate that I am wrong today, eventually, the hype will wear off, and TSLA will trade at a realistic valuation.<blockquote>特斯拉将利润率提高一倍，与GOOGL相提并论的可能性微乎其微。TSLA的自由现金流、市盈率或市盈率不应高于FB或GOOGL。虽然市场今天会表明我错了，但最终，炒作将会消退，特斯拉将以现实的估值进行交易。</blockquote>TSLA&#39;s Future Catalysts Have A Long Way To Go Before Impacting Its Bottom Line<blockquote>特斯拉未来的催化剂在影响其利润之前还有很长的路要走</blockquote>There are three main catalysts people discuss, which include insurance, robotaxis, and FSD.TSLA offers insurance using real-time driving behavior. This is currently available to all Model S, Model 3, Model X, and Model Y owners. The catch is that it&#39;s only available in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Ohio, Oregon, Texas, and Virginia as of now.<blockquote>人们讨论的催化剂主要有三个，包括保险、机器人出租车和FSD.TSLA使用实时驾驶行为提供保险。目前，所有Model S、Model 3、Model X和Model Y车主均可使用该功能。问题是，目前它仅在亚利桑那州、科罗拉多州、伊利诺伊州、俄亥俄州、俄勒冈州、德克萨斯州和弗吉尼亚州可用。</blockquote>TSLA uses a safety rating score to determine the monthly premium for its vehicles. At the largest premium of $130/mo, this would be $1,560 per year. If TSLA converted 100% of their U.S sales in 2021 as an insurance customer, which I think could be possible if TSLA insurance was available in every state, it would have generated $471.12 million in revenue.<blockquote>特斯拉使用安全评级分数来确定其车辆的每月保费。以130美元/月的最大保费计算，每年为1,560美元。如果TSLA在2021年将其在美国的销售额100%转化为保险客户（我认为如果每个州都提供TSLA保险，这是可能的），那么它将产生4.7112亿美元的收入。</blockquote>We have no idea what the margins would have been, but if the margin was 50%, it would have been an additional $235.56 million in net income in 2021. While this is nothing to sneeze at, an additional $235.56 million in net income hardly moves the needle. This could be a $1 billion top-line revenue segment in the future, but with availability in only 7 states, insurance&#39;s $1 billion revenue mark is a long way away.<blockquote>我们不知道利润率是多少，但如果利润率为50%，2021年净利润将增加2.3556亿美元。虽然这不容小觑，但额外的2.3556亿美元净利润几乎没有什么影响。这可能是未来10亿美元的营收部分，但由于仅在7个州提供服务，保险业10亿美元的收入大关还有很长的路要走。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e86de6232b9abf7cee46a9607eb09741\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Tesla<blockquote>特斯拉</blockquote>Next,FSD, for which TSLA has created two subscription models, a $99/mo price point and a $199/mo price point. The problem with FSD is that it doesn&#39;t make the vehicle fully autonomous, and you still need a driver to be attentive and alert. While I am not arguing that TSLA&#39;s FSD isn&#39;t leaps and bounds ahead of the competition, the problem is that it&#39;s not exactly a self-driving car.<blockquote>接下来是FSD，TSLA为其创建了两种订阅模式，99美元/月的价格点和199美元/月的价格点。FSD的问题在于，它不能使车辆完全自动驾驶，您仍然需要驾驶员保持专注和警觉。虽然我并不是说TSLA的FSD没有在竞争中遥遥领先，但问题是它并不完全是自动驾驶汽车。</blockquote>The questions around legality and where you can use it pop into my head, and how many of TSLA&#39;s drivers opt for this upgrade. Until there is clear legislation and the technology advances to where vehicles can fully drive a person from point A to B while that person takes a nap or reads, I have a hard time believing enough TSLA owners will spend the extra $199/mo on FSD. If there is somewhere where TSLA produces the numbers about how many owners opt for this package, please let me know, and I will crunch the numbers.<blockquote>有关合法性和在哪里可以使用它的问题突然出现在我的脑海中，以及有多少TSLA的司机选择了这种升级。在有明确的立法和技术进步到车辆可以在一个人午睡或阅读的时候完全驾驶一个人从A点到B点之前，我很难相信有足够多的TSLA车主会在FSD上额外花费199美元/月。如果TSLA在某个地方提供了有关有多少车主选择此套餐的数据，请让我知道，我将处理这些数据。</blockquote>Which Features Come With My Subscription?<blockquote>我的订阅附带哪些功能？</blockquote>The FSD capability features you receive are based on your configuration and location. Not all features are available in all markets, and features are subject to change.Learn more about Autopilot and Full Self-Driving capability features.Note: These features are designed to become more capable over time; however the currently enabled features do not make the vehicle autonomous. The currently enabled features require a fully attentive driver, who has their hands on the wheel and is prepared to take over at any moment.The last catalyst is Robotaxis which many have commented on in my articles before. We&#39;re so far off on Robotaxis that this can&#39;t be considered in TSLA&#39;s upcoming revenue. I would think major legislation would be needed for Robotaxis to exist, and there is no telling how many years away we are from this.<blockquote>您收到的FSD功能基于您的配置和位置。并非所有功能在所有市场都可用，并且功能可能会发生变化。了解有关Autopilot和全自动驾驶功能的更多信息。注意：这些功能旨在随着时间的推移变得更强大；然而，当前启用的特征并不能使车辆自主。目前启用的功能需要一个全神贯注的驾驶员，他的手放在方向盘上，随时准备接管。最后一个催化剂是机器人出租车，许多人在我之前的文章中评论过。我们在机器人出租车方面的差距太大，以至于不能在特斯拉即将到来的收入中考虑这一点。我认为机器人出租车的存在需要重大立法，而且不知道我们还需要多少年。</blockquote>Also, what is the percentage of TSLA owners that would actually allow their vehicle to be used as a Robotaxi? Depending on what the profitability is, I can see people buying TSLAs to enroll them in this program, but, once again, we need to see the economics behind it. I know I am just one opinion, but I would never enroll one of my cars into a robotaxi program because I don&#39;t want other people that I don&#39;t know in my car. I would think there are many others that have similar viewpoints.<blockquote>另外，真正允许他们的车辆用作机器人出租车的TSLA车主比例是多少？根据盈利能力，我可以看到人们购买特斯拉来加入这个计划，但是，我们需要再次看到其背后的经济学。我知道我只是一种观点，但我永远不会让我的一辆车加入机器人出租车计划，因为我不想让我不认识的其他人在我的车里。我想还有很多人有类似的观点。</blockquote>The real upcoming catalysts are future revenue growth and entering the Chinese market. In 2021 TSLA grew its YoY revenue by 70.67%, and their off to a great start after Q1 2022. Only time will tell what type of growth rate TSLA can maintain, but too many people are assuming that TSLA will obliterate the competition. Over the next several years, we could see TSLA&#39;s growth rate become significantly reduced as more luxury operators put EVs on the road.<blockquote>真正即将到来的催化剂是未来的收入增长和进入中国市场。2021年，特斯拉收入同比增长70.67%，在2022年第一季度之后取得了良好的开端。只有时间才能证明特斯拉能够保持什么样的增长率，但太多人认为特斯拉将消灭竞争对手。在接下来的几年里，随着更多的豪华运营商将电动汽车上路，我们可能会看到特斯拉的增长率大幅下降。</blockquote>At TSLA&#39;s current margins, they would need to increase their revenue by 444.55% to $276.47 billion to produce the same amount of net income ($37.34b) that FB produces today at their current 13.51% profit margin. Maybe TSLA can get there in the future, but why should TSLA be valued at almost $1 trillion today, considering not a single metric of theirs is similar to FB or GOOGL, and TSLA&#39;s growth across any of the sectors isn&#39;t larger than FB or GOOGL?<blockquote>按照TSLA目前的利润率，他们需要将收入增加444.55%，达到2,764.7亿美元，才能产生与FB目前13.51%利润率相同的净利润($37.34 B)。也许TSLA未来可以实现这一目标，但为什么TSLA今天的估值应该接近1万亿美元，因为他们没有一个指标与FB或GOOGL相似，而且TSLA在任何领域的增长都不比FB或GOOGL大？</blockquote>Tesla Continues To Dilute Shareholders, And Almost No Shareholders Care<blockquote>特斯拉不断稀释股东，几乎没有股东关心</blockquote>Dilution kills shareholder value. Look, I am a shareholder of TSLA, and I hate that my shares continue to be diluted. These numbers are split-adjusted that I am using. Over the past decade,TSLA has diluted its shares by 80.93%. This is horrible compared to big tech, yet investors can&#39;t buy enough TSLA shares. TSLA finished 2012 with 572.6 million shares and, as of its last filing, had increased its outstanding shares to 1.036 billion shares.<blockquote>稀释会扼杀股东价值。听着，我是特斯拉的股东，我讨厌我的股份继续被稀释。这些数字是我正在使用的分割调整的。过去十年，TSLA的股份稀释了80.93%。与大型科技公司相比，这是可怕的，但投资者无法购买足够的特斯拉股票。截至2012年底，特斯拉持有5.726亿股股票，截至上次提交文件，其流通股已增至10.36亿股。</blockquote>This is the equivalent of me taking a pizza, and instead of giving you a slice, cutting another 6.5 slices, then giving you one. The pizza represents TSLA, the company, and they basically turned an 8-slice pie into a 14.5-slice pie, reducing shareholder&#39;s ownership and the amount of equity, revenue, and EPS our shares represent.<blockquote>这相当于我拿了一个披萨，不是给你一片，而是再切6.5片，然后给你一片。披萨代表TSLA公司，他们基本上将8片馅饼变成了14.5片馅饼，减少了股东所有权以及我们的股票所代表的股本、收入和每股收益。</blockquote>If you want to see what a true shepherd of shareholder value looks like, turn to AAPL. In 2012 AAPL had 26.3 billion shares outstanding. Over the past decade, AAPL has repurchased 10.09 billion shares, reducing its outstanding shares by 38.37%. Every quarter, AAPL is buying back shares and increasing the ownership its shares represent. TSLA, on the other hand, continues to dilute shareholders by increasing shares YOY.<blockquote>如果您想了解真正的股东价值牧羊人是什么样子，请转向AAPL。2012年，AAPL拥有263亿股已发行股票。过去十年，AAPL回购了100.9亿股，流通股减少了38.37%。每个季度，苹果公司都会回购股票并增加其股票所代表的所有权。另一方面，特斯拉继续通过同比增持来稀释股东权益。</blockquote>I Could Be Completely Wrong, And Tesla Could Continue Growing At These Rates<blockquote>我可能完全错了，特斯拉可能会继续以这样的速度增长</blockquote>TSLA&#39;s vehicle deliveries continue to outpace its growing production. YoY TSLA&#39;s deliveries increased by 68% in Q1, adding 125,171 delivered vehicles to its customers. TSLA just began Model Y deliveries from the Austin facility, and production at the Gigafactory in Berlin started in March of 2022. TSLA&#39;s Shanghai facility had strong production rates prior to the spike in COVID that resulted in temporary shutdowns. TSLA isn&#39;t just focusing on the U.S, they have Europe and China in their sights.<blockquote>特斯拉的汽车交付量继续超过其产量增长速度。特斯拉第一季度的交付量同比增长68%，向客户交付了125,171辆汽车。TSLA刚刚开始从奥斯汀工厂交付Model Y，柏林超级工厂的生产于2022年3月开始。在新冠疫情激增导致暂时关闭之前，特斯拉上海工厂的生产率强劲。特斯拉不仅仅关注美国，他们还将目光投向了欧洲和中国。</blockquote>EVs accounted for 488,000 sales in the U.S for 2021, and the previous projection was that EVs would account for 670,000 units sold in 2022. Oil has hovered around $100 per barrel and could render the previous projections of 37% increased EV sales domestically for 2022 conservative. TSLA is in a prime position to capitalize on this trend. In 2021 TSLA vehicles accounted for 61.89% of EVs sold in the U.S (301,998 / 488,000).<blockquote>2021年，电动汽车在美国的销量为488,000辆，此前的预测是2022年电动汽车的销量将达到670,000辆。油价一直徘徊在每桶100美元左右，这可能会使之前对2022年国内电动汽车销量增长37%的预测变得保守。特斯拉处于利用这一趋势的有利位置。2021年，TSLA汽车占美国电动汽车销量的61.89%（301,998/488,000辆）。</blockquote>Hypothetically, if the previous projection of 670,000 EV sales for 2022 is accurate and TSLA maintains its current margin, they would sell 414,628 vehicles throughout the U.S in 2022. If gas prices do alter the decision-making process when deciding between a combustible engine or an EV, then TSLA could continue surprising the market with QoQ earnings beats.<blockquote>假设，如果之前对2022年电动汽车销量670,000辆的预测是准确的，并且TSLA保持目前的利润率，那么2022年他们将在美国销售414,628辆汽车。如果汽油价格确实改变了在决定燃油发动机还是电动汽车时的决策过程，那么特斯拉可能会继续以季度盈利超出市场预期。</blockquote>The U.S has a national goal of reaching 50% of domestic auto sales coming from EVs. In 2021, EVs accounted for 3.26% of total sales in the U.S auto market. Based on U.S auto sales in 2021, annual EV sales would need to grow by 6,989,403 to reach a 50% EV to combustible engine ratio. Hypothetically if U.S auto sales stayed flat but EVs reached 50% of the market in 2030 they would sell 7,477,403 vehicles. If TSLA&#39;s dominance in the EV sector was to drop from 61.89% to 15% due to increased competition, they would generate 1,121,610 in sales compared to 301,998 in 2021. When you add in Europe and China, TSLA certainly has the ability to become a top auto manufacturer by sales next decade.<blockquote>美国的国家目标是电动汽车占国内汽车销量的50%。2021年，电动汽车占美国汽车市场总销量的3.26%。根据2021年美国汽车销量，电动汽车年销量需要增长6,989,403辆，才能达到电动汽车与内燃机的比例50%。假设，如果美国汽车销量持平，但电动汽车在2030年达到市场的50%，他们将售出7,477,403辆汽车。如果特斯拉在电动汽车领域的主导地位因竞争加剧而从61.89%下降至15%，那么它们的销量将为1,121,610辆，而2021年为301,998辆。如果加上欧洲和中国，特斯拉当然有能力在未来十年成为销量第一的汽车制造商。</blockquote>Bulls aren&#39;t incorrect to be excited about TSLA. The world is moving toward EVs, and TSLA is the crème de la crème. As I said in the beginning, I am bullish about TSLA&#39;s future prospects, but I think the valuation today is overinflated. Nobody can predict the future, but I have no doubt that TSLA will continue to grow its sales YoY.<blockquote>多头对特斯拉感到兴奋并没有错。世界正在走向电动汽车，而TSLA是其中的佼佼者。正如我一开始所说，我看好TSLA的未来前景，但我认为今天的估值被夸大了。没有人能预测未来，但我毫不怀疑特斯拉的销量将继续同比增长。</blockquote>The question becomes, how much growth will they be able to achieve YoY? In 2021, TM generated $226.48 billion of revenue and, based on the future of EVs, TSLA certainly could achieve this level of revenue in the future. Based on TSLA&#39;s current 13.51% profit margin, if they achieved TM&#39;s level of revenue, they would generate $30.59 billion of net income, which would definitely make today&#39;s valuation look more realistic.<blockquote>问题变成了，他们能够实现多少同比增长？2021年，TM创造了2264.8亿美元的收入，基于电动汽车的未来，TSLA未来肯定可以达到这一收入水平。基于TSLA目前13.51%的利润率，如果他们达到TM的收入水平，他们将产生305.9亿美元的净利润，这肯定会让今天的估值看起来更加现实。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c9176fa9bebc2c940e038cafd23229\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Tesla<blockquote>特斯拉</blockquote>Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote>You&#39;re probably wondering how I can be a shareholder and be a bear on TSLA&#39;s valuation at the same time. It&#39;s simple; my wife bought shares of TSLA, which makes me a shareholder. My stance has always been bullish on the company and bearish on the valuation. What Elon Musk and the team at TSLA has accomplished is astonishing, and they deserve nothing but respect.<blockquote>你可能想知道我怎么能既是股东又看跌特斯拉估值。很简单；我的妻子购买了特斯拉的股票，这使我成为股东。我的立场一直是看多公司，看空估值。埃隆·马斯克和特斯拉团队所取得的成就令人惊叹，他们只值得尊重。</blockquote>Keep in mind a company and a company&#39;s stock are two separate things. TSLA continues to dilute shareholders, and they and the market are valuing TSLA as if it&#39;s FB or GOOGL. TSLA is not a technology company; it&#39;s an automobile company, as the automotive segments drive 100% of its gross revenue and net income.<blockquote>请记住，公司和公司的股票是两回事。特斯拉继续稀释股东权益，他们和市场对特斯拉的估值就好像它是FB或GOOGL一样。TSLA不是一家科技公司；它是一家汽车公司，因为汽车部门占其总收入和净利润的100%。</blockquote>TSLA is trading at a P/E of 113.81, a P/S of 15.38, and a 142.52x multiple on its FCF. The numbers are drastically inflated as TSLA has no business trading at a larger P/S multiple than AMZN, which trades at 11.31 P/S when it has grown its revenue by $341.76 billion over the previous 3.25 years compared to TSLA&#39;s $40.73 billion of revenue growth. TSLA has generated $6.93 billion in FCF over the TTM, while Mr. Market has placed a 142.52x multiple on TSLA due to $7.15 billion FCF growth over the past 3.25 years. FB trades at a 15.19x FCF multiple while growing FCF by $23.45 billion over this period which is more than 3x what TSLA has generated in the TTM.<blockquote>TSLA的市盈率为113.81倍，市盈率为15.38倍，自由现金流倍数为142.52倍。这些数字被严重夸大了，因为TSLA的市盈率没有比AMZN更高的业务，AMZN的市盈率为11.31，而TSLA的收入在过去3.25年中增长了3,417.6亿美元，而TSLA的收入增长为407.3亿美元。TSLA通过TTM产生了69.3亿美元的自由现金流，而Mr由于过去3.25年FCF增长71.5亿美元，市场对TSLA的评级为142.52倍。FB的FCF市盈率为15.19倍，而在此期间FCF增长了234.5亿美元，是TSLA在TTM中产生的3倍多。</blockquote>With FB trading at 15.19x FCF, GOOGL at 23.42x FCF, and AAPL at 25.4x FCF, it&#39;s hard to justify any number above 20x for TSLA. I think a 21x FCF multiple is generous and that places TSLA at a market cap of $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion.<blockquote>FB的交易价格为15.19倍FCF，GOOGL为23.42倍FCF，AAPL为25.4倍FCF，因此很难证明TSLA的任何高于20倍的数字是合理的。我认为21倍的自由现金流倍数是慷慨的，这使得TSLA的市值达到1,454.3亿美元，比目前9,869.2亿美元的市值下降了-85.26%。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Overvalued By 85.26% And Not A Technology Company<blockquote>特斯拉：高估85.26%不是科技公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Overvalued By 85.26% And Not A Technology Company<blockquote>特斯拉：高估85.26%不是科技公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2022-05-08 11:30\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>Summary<blockquote><html><head></head><body>总结</body></html></blockquote><ul><li>Make no mistake, Tesla is a phenomenal company that has accomplished the unthinkable as it broke through extreme barriers of entry to disrupt the auto industry.</li><li>Just because Tesla is a successful company that is causing automotive titans to change from combustible engines to EVs doesn&#39;t mean Tesla&#39;s stock is a good investment today.</li><li>100% of gross profit and net income is generated from the automotive sector as Tesla&#39;s other businesses lose money, making them an automobile manufacturing company, not a technology company.</li><li>I compared Tesla&#39;s metrics to the auto industry and big tech and the results are the same, Tesla&#39;s valuation is egregious.</li></ul>It&#39;s rare to find companies that have cult-like followings with loyalists willing to pay any price for its stock. The debate regarding Tesla, Inc.&#39;s (NASDAQ:TSLA) valuation continues to be a topic of conversation between the bulls and the bears. Oneside argues that TSLA&#39;s financial growth and future prospects, including FSD, insurance, and robotaxis, justify the current $902.12 billion valuations, while others argue that the current financials and cult-like following have led to a massive overvaluation in TSLA&#39;s stock.<blockquote><ul><li>毫无疑问，特斯拉是一家非凡的公司，它突破了极端的进入壁垒，颠覆了汽车行业，取得了不可思议的成就。</li><li>仅仅因为特斯拉是一家成功的公司，正在推动汽车巨头从内燃机转向电动汽车，并不意味着特斯拉的股票今天是一项不错的投资。</li><li>由于特斯拉的其他业务都在亏损，100%的毛利润和净利润都来自汽车部门，这使他们成为一家汽车制造公司，而不是一家科技公司。</li><li>我将特斯拉的指标与汽车行业和大型科技公司进行了比较，结果是相同的，特斯拉的估值令人震惊。</li></ul>很少有公司拥有狂热的追随者，忠诚者愿意为其股票支付任何价格。关于特斯拉公司（纳斯达克：TSLA）估值的争论仍然是多头和空头之间的话题。Oneside认为，TSLA的财务增长和未来前景（包括FSD、保险和机器人出租车）证明了当前9021.2亿美元的估值是合理的，而其他人则认为，当前的财务状况和狂热的追随者导致了TSLA股票的大幅高估。</blockquote>I tip my hat to Elon Musk, as his accomplishments are second to none. When others called him crazy, Mr. Musk chose one of the hardest industries to compete in, started TSLA from the ground up, went to battle against the auto manufacturers, and succeeded. TSLA is one of the rare success stories that has truly shaped an industry, and the barriers of entry that were overcome are astonishing. TSLA didn&#39;t have the capital, manufacturing, credibility, or the infrastructure that its competitors did, yet they found a way to succeed. If the odds weren&#39;t enough which TSLA faced, they accomplished their goals without a combustible engine and pioneered an entirely new sector within the automotive industry.<blockquote>我向埃隆·马斯克致敬，因为他的成就是首屈一指的。当别人说他疯了时，马斯克先生选择了一个最难竞争的行业，白手起家创办了特斯拉，与汽车制造商作战，并取得了成功。特斯拉是真正塑造了一个行业的罕见成功故事之一，所克服的进入壁垒令人惊讶。特斯拉不像竞争对手那样拥有资本、制造、信誉或基础设施，但他们找到了成功的方法。如果特斯拉面临的机会还不够，他们在没有燃油发动机的情况下实现了目标，并在汽车行业开创了一个全新的领域。</blockquote>Just because TSLA is a great company, it doesn&#39;t mean TSLA has a great stock, or it isn&#39;t overvalued. I am not bearish on TSLA the company because I believe they still have a long runway of growth ahead of them, but I am bearish on the valuation. Prior to leaving a comment on why I am wrong, please read the article and think about the metrics I am citing; then, I will happily discuss any viewpoints about the analysis.<blockquote>仅仅因为特斯拉是一家伟大的公司，并不意味着特斯拉有一只伟大的股票，或者它没有被高估。我并不看跌特斯拉这家公司，因为我相信他们还有很长的增长之路，但我看跌估值。在评论我为什么错之前，请阅读这篇文章并思考我引用的指标；然后，我会很乐意讨论任何关于分析的观点。</blockquote>Tesla Vs. The World In The Automotive Sector<blockquote>特斯拉与汽车领域的世界</blockquote>It feels like TSLA vs. the world whenever TSLA is discussed. Discussing who makes a better automobile is a matter of opinion, and everyone is correct because it&#39;s their opinion. If person A thinks TSLA makes the best car and person B thinks Mercedes Benz makes the best car, they are both correct. Debating over this is pointless, so let&#39;s look at the raw numbers.<blockquote>每当讨论特斯拉时，感觉就像特斯拉对抗世界。讨论谁制造的汽车更好是见仁见智的问题，每个人都是正确的，因为这是他们的观点。如果A人认为特斯拉制造的汽车最好，B人认为奔驰制造的汽车最好，那么他们都是正确的。争论这个是没有意义的，所以让我们看看原始数据。</blockquote>TSLA has a larger market cap than the combination ofToyota(TM),Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY),Daimler(OTCPK:DDAIF),BMW(OTCPK:BMWYY),General Motors(GM),Ford(F),Honda(HMC),Ferrari(RACE),Nissan(OTCPK:NSANY),Subaru(OTCPK:FUJHY),Volvo(OTCPK:VOLAF), andMazda(OTCPK:MZDAY). TSLA&#39;s market cap is currently $986.92 billion, while the combination of these 12 companies is $777.41 billion.<blockquote>特斯拉的市值比丰田(TM)、大众(OTCPK：VWAGY)、戴姆勒(OTCPK：DDAIF)、宝马(OTCPK：BMWYY)、通用汽车(GM)、福特(F)、本田(HMC)的总和还要大)、法拉利(RACE)、日产(OTCPK：NSANY)、斯巴鲁(OTCPK：FUJHY)、沃尔沃(OTCPK：VOLAF)和马自达(OTCPK：MZDAY)。特斯拉的市值目前为9869.2亿美元，而这12家公司的市值总和为7774.1亿美元。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff930d2442bf282c1bd880cca408eb94\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛</blockquote>The P/S ratio is often cited to justify the valuation. The combination of TM, VWAGY, DDAIF, BMWYY, GM, F, HMC, RACE, NSANY, FUJHY, VOLAF, and MZDAY has generated $1.38 trillion in revenue over the TTM, putting their P/S at 0.56, while TSLA has generated $62.19 billion in revenue and has a 15.87 P/S.<blockquote>市盈率经常被用来证明估值的合理性。TM、VWAGY、DDAIF、BMWYY、GM、F、HMC、RACE、NSANY、FUJHY、VOLAF和MZDAY的组合在TTM上创造了1.38万亿美元的收入，市盈率为0.56，而TSLA则创造了621.9亿美元的收入，市盈率为15.87。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9b9661fde232925a758c38fd2e93f36\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛，寻求阿尔法</blockquote>As a combined entity, these 12 companies have generated $118.29 billion in net income, while TSLA has produced $8.4 billion.<blockquote>作为一个合并后的实体，这12家公司创造了1182.9亿美元的净利润，而TSLA创造了84亿美元。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d25806eb839eb9ca2b4ef3c24218048c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛，寻求阿尔法</blockquote>TSLA is a great company, but its current valuation has become overly inflated. TSLA&#39;s market cap is $209.52 billion larger than these 12 auto manufacturers, yet the combination of the 12 auto manufacturers generates $1.32 trillion more in revenue and $109.89 billion more in net income.<blockquote>特斯拉是一家伟大的公司，但其目前的估值已经过度膨胀。特斯拉的市值比这12家汽车制造商高出2095.2亿美元，但这12家汽车制造商加起来的收入多出1.32万亿美元，净利润多出1098.9亿美元。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1b686de4009ca733ff9651ce0d9fcaf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛，寻求阿尔法</blockquote>Looking at the market caps, one would assume that TSLA has a dominant majority over its competitors in auto sales within the U.S. According to the2021 data, TSLA sold 2.02% of all vehicles in the U.S. TSLA&#39;s market cap reflects a level of dominance that is non-existent.<blockquote>从市值来看，人们会认为特斯拉在美国的汽车销量中比竞争对手占据主导地位。根据2021年的数据，TSLA的销量占美国所有汽车的2.02%。TSLA的市值反映了不存在的主导地位。</blockquote>Realistically, TSLA will have a hard time disrupting the sector further due to the price point of their vehicles. The reality is that, unless TSLA can sell a car that rivals a Honda or Toyota, doubling its market share is going to be a daunting task. It&#39;s just math. TSLA doesn&#39;t have a product for the masses, and while it may continue to grow in the luxury segment, the amount of growth that can be achieved is limited due to the pricing power of the consumer.<blockquote>实际上，由于其车辆的价格，特斯拉将很难进一步扰乱该行业。现实情况是，除非特斯拉能够销售出与本田或丰田相媲美的汽车，否则将其市场份额翻一番将是一项艰巨的任务。只是数学而已。特斯拉没有面向大众的产品，虽然它在豪华车领域可能会继续增长，但由于消费者的定价能力，所能实现的增长是有限的。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/442ffe151dd83bc524785857925f9797\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>www.goodcarbadcar.net<blockquote>www.goodcarbadcar.net</blockquote>Tesla Isn&#39;t A Technology Company And Shouldn&#39;t Be Valued As One<blockquote>特斯拉不是一家科技公司，也不应该被视为一家科技公司</blockquote>The valuation rebuttal has always been that TSLA isn&#39;t an automobile company, rather, it&#39;s a technology company.<blockquote>估值反驳一直是特斯拉不是一家汽车公司，而是一家科技公司。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbc9ccb2cb8a0e7d40804db24e183214\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Tesla<blockquote>特斯拉</blockquote>Page 23 ofTSLA&#39;s Q1 2022 slide deck from their earnings call is their statement of operations. Once again, 100% of TSLA&#39;s gross profit and net income are derived from automobiles. Energy generation and storage lose money as it generates $616 million in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $688 million. The same goes for Services and others, as this segment generates $1.279 billion in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $1.286 billion. This doesn&#39;t even factor in operating expenses.<blockquote>特斯拉2022年第一季度收益看涨期权幻灯片的第23页是他们的运营报表。再次，TSLA的毛利润和净利润100%来自汽车。能源生产和存储亏损，因为它产生了6.16亿美元的收入，而该收入的成本为6.88亿美元。服务和其他部门也是如此，因为该部门产生了12.79亿美元的收入，而该收入的成本为12.86亿美元。这甚至没有考虑运营费用。</blockquote>TSLA manufacturers state of the art automobiles, but this doesn&#39;t classify them as a technology company, nor should they be classified as one. Since this is always the rebuttal and technology companies trade at larger earnings multiples, I will compare TSLA to Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), and Meta Platforms (FB) and illustrate why TSLA is still drastically overvalued if the market was still to provide it with a tech multiple.<blockquote>TSLA制造最先进的汽车，但这并不能将它们归类为科技公司，也不应该归类为科技公司。由于这始终是反驳，而且科技公司的市盈率较高，我将将TSLA与苹果(AAPL)、微软(MSFT)、亚马逊(AMZN)、Alphabet(GOOG)(GOOGL)和Meta Platforms进行比较(FB)并说明如果市场仍然为特斯拉提供科技市盈率，为什么特斯拉仍然被严重高估。</blockquote>Prior to the comparisons, I want to frame the analysis by providing each company&#39;s market cap:<blockquote>在进行比较之前，我想通过提供每家公司的市值来构建分析：</blockquote><ul><li>AAPL $2.69 Trillion</li><li>MSFT $2.17 Trillion</li><li>GOOGL $1.62 Trillion</li><li>AMZN $1.28 Trillion</li><li>TSLA $986.92 Billion</li><li>FB $604.62 Billion</li></ul>I am going to start with growth because this is always the key metric bulls point out. Since the close of 2018, which is 3.25 fiscal years, TSLA has grown its revenue from $21.46 billion to $62.19 billion.<blockquote><ul><li>苹果公司2.69万亿美元</li><li>MSFT 2.17万亿美元</li><li>GOOGL 1.62万亿美元</li><li>AMZN 1.28万亿美元</li><li>特斯拉9869.2亿美元</li><li>FB 6046.2亿美元</li></ul>我将从增长开始，因为这始终是多头指出的关键指标。自2018年底（即3.25财年）以来，TSLA的收入已从214.6亿美元增长至621.9亿美元。</blockquote>This is absolutely remarkable, but it doesn&#39;t place TSLA in the upper epsilon of technology companies. Over the same period, FB grew its revenue by $63.83 billion, which is more than what TSLA produced in the TTM. FB grew its revenue by more than what TSLA produces and generates just about double the revenue ($119.67 billion), yet TSLA has a larger market cap. For everyone who has used growth as their investment premise, FB having a market cap that&#39;s $382.30 less than TSLA nullifies that aspect of the bull thesis. AMZN&#39;s market cap is only $294.33 billion larger than TSLA, yet they generated $477.75 billion in revenue and grew their revenue by $341.76 billion in this period. Using revenue growth for TSLA doesn&#39;t support the valuation.<blockquote>这绝对是了不起的，但它并没有将特斯拉置于科技公司的上位。同期，FB的收入增长了638.3亿美元，超过了TSLA在TTM中的收入。FB的收入增长超过了TSLA的收入，几乎是其收入的两倍（1196.7亿美元），但TSLA的市值更大。对于每个以增长为投资前提的人来说，FB的市值比TSLA低382.30美元，这使得牛市论点的这一方面无效。AMZN的市值仅比TSLA大2943.3亿美元，但他们创造了4777.5亿美元的收入，在此期间收入增长了3417.6亿美元。使用TSLA的收入增长并不支持估值。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c0fbd4eb93f026c4575ee8f77f53e4b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛，寻求阿尔法</blockquote>Next, I will turn to profits because, at the end of the day, businesses are in the business of making money. Once again, TSLA has done a fantastic job of monetizing its business and, in 3.25 short years, has gone from losing -$976 million to make $8.4 billion in the TTM for an increase of $9.38 billion. FB has produced $37.34 billion in profit in the TTM, and its net income grew by $15.23 billion over this period. Using growth doesn&#39;t support the valuation when FB has a market cap that&#39;s $382.30 less than TSLA and grew its profits in this period by almost double what TSLA has generated in the TTM.<blockquote>接下来，我将转向利润，因为归根结底，企业是在赚钱。TSLA再次在业务货币化方面做得非常出色，在短短3.25年内，TTM从亏损9.76亿美元增至84亿美元，增加了93.8亿美元。FB在TTM创造了373.4亿美元的利润，净利润在此期间增长了152.3亿美元。当FB的市值比TSLA低382.30美元，并且在此期间的利润增长几乎是TSLA在TTM中的两倍时，使用增长并不能支持估值。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9716477607711ee0b6d4f77eb24c890\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛，寻求阿尔法</blockquote>The new metric bulls are using in their thesis is TSLA&#39;s free cash flow (FCF). Once again, TSLA has done an excellent job, going from -$221 million of FCF in 2018 to $6.93 billion of FCF in the TTM. Many companies would love to grow their annual FCF by $7.15 billion over a 3.25-year period, and this should be applauded.<blockquote>多头在论文中使用的新指标是特斯拉的自由现金流（FCF）。TSLA再次表现出色，从2018年的-2.21亿美元自由现金流增至TTM的69.3亿美元自由现金流。许多公司希望在3.25年内将其年度自由现金流增加71.5亿美元，这应该受到赞扬。</blockquote>Let&#39;s look at FB once again, since TSLA&#39;s valuation isn&#39;t based on its core segment as an automobile manufacturer. FB has grown its FCF over the previous 3.25 years by $23.45 billion, more than 3x TSLA&#39;s growth, and has generated $39.81 billion of FCF in the TTM. FB generated roughly 5.75x more FCF than TSLA and grew its FCF by more than 3x what TSLA produces, yet FB has a market cap that&#39;s almost $400 billion less than TSLA. Growth within the financials does not support TSLA&#39;s valuation, which is a breath away from $1 trillion.<blockquote>让我们再次看看FB，因为TSLA的估值并不是基于其作为汽车制造商的核心细分市场。FB的FCF在过去3.25年中增长了234.5亿美元，是TSLA增长的3倍多，并在TTM中产生了398.1亿美元的FCF。FB产生的自由现金流大约是TSLA的5.75倍，其自由现金流增长是TSLA的3倍多，但FB的市值比TSLA少近4000亿美元。金融界的增长并不能支撑TSLA的估值，该估值距离1万亿美元仅一步之遥。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/902a7074eda9e8f2f2765e0833423d2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛，寻求阿尔法</blockquote>Today you&#39;re paying a 113.81 P/E for TSLA. Paying a larger multiple for a company that&#39;s growing its earnings quickly is normal, but TSLA isn&#39;t growing by larger amounts than FB, and FB trades at a 16.66 P/E. I have seen TSLA bulls justify the P/E because of TSLA&#39;s growth factor, but this doesn&#39;t hold up when FB has grown by larger amounts from larger starting positions and has a P/E that&#39;s a fraction of TSLA. Look at AAPL, which is the largest company in the world. AAPL has grown its net income by $56.25 billion and its FCF by $52.3 billion over the past 3.25 years, and its P/E is 26.78. People are blindly paying any multiple the market places on TSLA.<blockquote>今天，您为TSLA支付的市盈率为113.81。为一家盈利快速增长的公司支付更高的市盈率是正常的，但TSLA的增长幅度并不比FB大，FB的市盈率为16.66。我见过TSLA多头因为TSLA的增长因素而证明市盈率是合理的，但当FB从较大的起始头寸增长了更多并且市盈率只是TSLA的一小部分时，这就不成立了。看看AAPL，它是世界上最大的公司。过去3.25年，AAPL的净利润增长了562.5亿美元，自由现金流增长了523亿美元，市盈率为26.78。人们盲目地支付特斯拉市场份额的任何倍数。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75168f6e39ced721cf0c53d78481a983\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TSLA is trading at a 15.38 P/S. The justification for this multiple is difficult to defend while AMZN trades at a P/S of 11.31. AMZN&#39;s revenue grew by $341.76 billion over the past 3.25 years while TSLA grew their revenue by $40.73 billion. Instead of an absolute basis, looking at this from a percentage aspect, TSLA grew its revenue by 189.78%, while AMZN&#39;s grew by 251.32%. The P/S ratio is not a supporting valuation metric as TSLA is trading at a larger multiple than AMZN yet produced $301.03 billion less in revenue growth compared to AMZN. At the very least, TSLA should trade at a lower P/S multiple than AMZN considering their revenue growth was a fraction of AMZN&#39;s.<blockquote>TSLA的交易价格为15.38 P/S。当AMZN的市盈率为11.31时，这一市盈率的合理性很难辩护。过去3.25年，AMZN的收入增长了3417.6亿美元，而TSLA的收入增长了407.3亿美元。从百分比来看，特斯拉的收入增长了189.78%，而亚马逊的收入增长了251.32%，而不是绝对基数。市盈率并不是一个支持性的估值指标，因为TSLA的市盈率高于AMZN，但与AMZN相比，其收入增长却少了3010.3亿美元。至少，考虑到特斯拉的收入增长只是亚马逊的一小部分，特斯拉的市盈率应该低于亚马逊。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aad00a6c490808962705a1a2dae45cfe\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TSLA has done an excellent job monetizing its revenue, delivering exceptional margins, and generating FCF. Now that TSLA is generating billions in FCF, it&#39;s been inserted into the bull thesis. FCF is a measure of profitability that excludes the non-cash expenses of the income statement and includes spending on equipment and assets as well as changes in working capital from the balance sheet. FCF could be the most underrated and most important financial metric to look at, as this is the pool of capital that companies can utilize to repay debt, pay dividends, buy back shares, make acquisitions, or reinvest in the business.<blockquote>特斯拉在收入货币化、提供卓越的利润率和产生自由现金流方面做得非常出色。现在，特斯拉正在产生数十亿美元的自由现金流，它已被纳入牛市论点。FCF是衡量盈利能力的指标，不包括损益表中的非现金费用，包括设备和资产支出以及资产负债表中营运资本的变化。自由现金流可能是最被低估和最重要的财务指标，因为这是公司可以用来偿还债务、支付股息、回购股票、进行收购或对业务进行再投资的资本池。</blockquote>Every investment is the present value of all future cash flow. This is why investors look at the price to FCF valuation. Investors want to pay the cheapest multiple for a company&#39;s FCF. Today, you&#39;re paying 142.52x TSLA&#39;s FCF. Going back to the FCF section, TSLA grew its FCF by $7.15 billion over the past 3.25 years. FB generated $23.45 billion of FCF in this period, which is 3x the amount TSLA grew, yet FB is trading at a 15.19x multiple on price to FCF.<blockquote>每一项投资都是未来所有现金流的现值。这就是为什么投资者关注自由现金流估值的价格。投资者希望为公司的自由现金流支付最便宜的倍数。今天，您支付的是TSLA自由现金流的142.52倍。回到自由现金流部分，TSLA的自由现金流在过去3.25年中增长了71.5亿美元。FB在此期间产生了234.5亿美元的FCF，是TSLA增长金额的3倍，但FB的市盈率是FCF的15.19倍。</blockquote>Why on earth would you want to pay 142.52x for TSLA&#39;s FCF when you could pay 15.19x for FB, which is growing their FCF by more than 3x the amount that TSLA is growing by? How about AAPL? AAPL grew its FCF by $52.3 billion and trades at a 25.4x price to FCF. If I exclude FB for a moment, should TSLA trade at a larger FCF multiple than GOOGL, which has grown its FCF by $46.15 billion over the past 3.25 years? My answer is no because there is no guarantee that TSLA will ever generate $46.15 billion in annual FCF, let alone the $68.99 billion in FCF that GOOGL generates.<blockquote>当您可以为FB支付15.19倍的FCF时，您究竟为什么要为TSLA的FCF支付142.52倍的费用，而FB的FCF增长速度是TSLA增长速度的3倍以上？苹果公司怎么样？AAPL的自由现金流增加了523亿美元，交易价格是自由现金流的25.4倍。如果我暂时排除FB，TSLA的自由现金流倍数是否应该高于GOOGL，后者的自由现金流在过去3.25年中增长了461.5亿美元？我的答案是否定的，因为无法保证特斯拉每年能够产生461.5亿美元的自由现金流，更不用说GOOGL产生的689.9亿美元的自由现金流了。</blockquote>So what is a fair price to FCF multiple for TSLA? I don&#39;t believe TSLA has earned the right to trade at the same multiples as the rest of big tech considering the levels of FCF they produce. If I stick with the methodology that FB is egregiously undervalued, then TSLA should trade above 15.19x its FCF but lower than the 23.42x multiple GOOGL trades at.<blockquote>那么TSLA的FCF倍数的合理价格是多少呢？考虑到它们产生的自由现金流水平，我认为特斯拉没有赢得与其他大型科技公司相同倍数的交易权利。如果我坚持FB被严重低估的方法论，那么TSLA的交易价格应该高于其FCF的15.19倍，但低于GOOGL交易价格的23.42倍。</blockquote>I don&#39;t want to be overly bearish, so I will place a 21x multiple on TSLA&#39;s FCF, which is more than fair considering big tech metrics. A 21x multiple on TSLA&#39;s FCF puts its market cap at $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion. It&#39;s just math, and if TSLA is going to be valued as a technology company, it needs to be compared to the technology companies with similar market caps.<blockquote>我不想过于悲观，因此我将TSLA的自由现金流设定为21倍，考虑到大型科技指标，这是非常公平的。TSLA自由现金流的21倍使其市值达到1454.3亿美元，较目前9869.2亿美元的市值下降了-85.26%。这只是数学问题，如果特斯拉要作为一家科技公司进行估值，就需要与市值相似的科技公司进行比较。</blockquote>At the very least, there isn&#39;t a single reason why TSLA&#39;s market cap is larger than FB&#39;s. There isn&#39;t a single metric that TSLA beats FB in. Based on FB&#39;s valuation, if TSLA traded at the same FCF multiple, it would have a market cap of $105.19 billion.<blockquote>至少，TSLA的市值大于FB的原因并不是单一的。TSLA没有一个指标能击败FB。根据FB的估值，如果TSLA以相同的FCF倍数交易，其市值将达到1051.9亿美元。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b81a61d60d9ec098276569cc4a501da0\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TSLA has a gross profit margin of 27.1% ($16.85b / $62.19b) and a profit margin of 13.51% ($8.4b / $62.19b). FB has a gross profit margin of 80.34% ($96.14b / $119.67b) and a profit margin of 31.2% ($37.34b / $119.67b). FB has much wider margins and is growing its revenue by larger amounts. This reinforces my methodology as to why TSLA is grossly overvalued. GOOGL has a gross profit margin of 56.93% ($153.9b / $270.33b) and a profit margin of 27.57% ($74.54b / $270.33b).<blockquote>TSLA的毛利率为27.1%（$16.85 B/$62.19 B），利润率为13.51%（$8.4 B/$62.19 B）。FB的毛利率为80.34%（$96.14 B/$119.67 B），利润率为31.2%（$37.34 B/$119.67 B）。FB的利润率要高得多，收入也在大幅增长。这强化了我关于为什么特斯拉被严重高估的方法论。GOOGL的毛利率为56.93%（$153.9 B/$270.33 B），利润率为27.57%（$745.4 B/$270.33 B）。</blockquote>The chances are incredibly slim that TSLA can double its profit margin to be within striking distance of GOOGL&#39;s. TSLA should not trade at a larger FCF, P/E, or P/S multiple than FB or GOOGL. While the market would indicate that I am wrong today, eventually, the hype will wear off, and TSLA will trade at a realistic valuation.<blockquote>特斯拉将利润率提高一倍，与GOOGL相提并论的可能性微乎其微。TSLA的自由现金流、市盈率或市盈率不应高于FB或GOOGL。虽然市场今天会表明我错了，但最终，炒作将会消退，特斯拉将以现实的估值进行交易。</blockquote>TSLA&#39;s Future Catalysts Have A Long Way To Go Before Impacting Its Bottom Line<blockquote>特斯拉未来的催化剂在影响其利润之前还有很长的路要走</blockquote>There are three main catalysts people discuss, which include insurance, robotaxis, and FSD.TSLA offers insurance using real-time driving behavior. This is currently available to all Model S, Model 3, Model X, and Model Y owners. The catch is that it&#39;s only available in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Ohio, Oregon, Texas, and Virginia as of now.<blockquote>人们讨论的催化剂主要有三个，包括保险、机器人出租车和FSD.TSLA使用实时驾驶行为提供保险。目前，所有Model S、Model 3、Model X和Model Y车主均可使用该功能。问题是，目前它仅在亚利桑那州、科罗拉多州、伊利诺伊州、俄亥俄州、俄勒冈州、德克萨斯州和弗吉尼亚州可用。</blockquote>TSLA uses a safety rating score to determine the monthly premium for its vehicles. At the largest premium of $130/mo, this would be $1,560 per year. If TSLA converted 100% of their U.S sales in 2021 as an insurance customer, which I think could be possible if TSLA insurance was available in every state, it would have generated $471.12 million in revenue.<blockquote>特斯拉使用安全评级分数来确定其车辆的每月保费。以130美元/月的最大保费计算，每年为1,560美元。如果TSLA在2021年将其在美国的销售额100%转化为保险客户（我认为如果每个州都提供TSLA保险，这是可能的），那么它将产生4.7112亿美元的收入。</blockquote>We have no idea what the margins would have been, but if the margin was 50%, it would have been an additional $235.56 million in net income in 2021. While this is nothing to sneeze at, an additional $235.56 million in net income hardly moves the needle. This could be a $1 billion top-line revenue segment in the future, but with availability in only 7 states, insurance&#39;s $1 billion revenue mark is a long way away.<blockquote>我们不知道利润率是多少，但如果利润率为50%，2021年净利润将增加2.3556亿美元。虽然这不容小觑，但额外的2.3556亿美元净利润几乎没有什么影响。这可能是未来10亿美元的营收部分，但由于仅在7个州提供服务，保险业10亿美元的收入大关还有很长的路要走。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e86de6232b9abf7cee46a9607eb09741\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Tesla<blockquote>特斯拉</blockquote>Next,FSD, for which TSLA has created two subscription models, a $99/mo price point and a $199/mo price point. The problem with FSD is that it doesn&#39;t make the vehicle fully autonomous, and you still need a driver to be attentive and alert. While I am not arguing that TSLA&#39;s FSD isn&#39;t leaps and bounds ahead of the competition, the problem is that it&#39;s not exactly a self-driving car.<blockquote>接下来是FSD，TSLA为其创建了两种订阅模式，99美元/月的价格点和199美元/月的价格点。FSD的问题在于，它不能使车辆完全自动驾驶，您仍然需要驾驶员保持专注和警觉。虽然我并不是说TSLA的FSD没有在竞争中遥遥领先，但问题是它并不完全是自动驾驶汽车。</blockquote>The questions around legality and where you can use it pop into my head, and how many of TSLA&#39;s drivers opt for this upgrade. Until there is clear legislation and the technology advances to where vehicles can fully drive a person from point A to B while that person takes a nap or reads, I have a hard time believing enough TSLA owners will spend the extra $199/mo on FSD. If there is somewhere where TSLA produces the numbers about how many owners opt for this package, please let me know, and I will crunch the numbers.<blockquote>有关合法性和在哪里可以使用它的问题突然出现在我的脑海中，以及有多少TSLA的司机选择了这种升级。在有明确的立法和技术进步到车辆可以在一个人午睡或阅读的时候完全驾驶一个人从A点到B点之前，我很难相信有足够多的TSLA车主会在FSD上额外花费199美元/月。如果TSLA在某个地方提供了有关有多少车主选择此套餐的数据，请让我知道，我将处理这些数据。</blockquote>Which Features Come With My Subscription?<blockquote>我的订阅附带哪些功能？</blockquote>The FSD capability features you receive are based on your configuration and location. Not all features are available in all markets, and features are subject to change.Learn more about Autopilot and Full Self-Driving capability features.Note: These features are designed to become more capable over time; however the currently enabled features do not make the vehicle autonomous. The currently enabled features require a fully attentive driver, who has their hands on the wheel and is prepared to take over at any moment.The last catalyst is Robotaxis which many have commented on in my articles before. We&#39;re so far off on Robotaxis that this can&#39;t be considered in TSLA&#39;s upcoming revenue. I would think major legislation would be needed for Robotaxis to exist, and there is no telling how many years away we are from this.<blockquote>您收到的FSD功能基于您的配置和位置。并非所有功能在所有市场都可用，并且功能可能会发生变化。了解有关Autopilot和全自动驾驶功能的更多信息。注意：这些功能旨在随着时间的推移变得更强大；然而，当前启用的特征并不能使车辆自主。目前启用的功能需要一个全神贯注的驾驶员，他的手放在方向盘上，随时准备接管。最后一个催化剂是机器人出租车，许多人在我之前的文章中评论过。我们在机器人出租车方面的差距太大，以至于不能在特斯拉即将到来的收入中考虑这一点。我认为机器人出租车的存在需要重大立法，而且不知道我们还需要多少年。</blockquote>Also, what is the percentage of TSLA owners that would actually allow their vehicle to be used as a Robotaxi? Depending on what the profitability is, I can see people buying TSLAs to enroll them in this program, but, once again, we need to see the economics behind it. I know I am just one opinion, but I would never enroll one of my cars into a robotaxi program because I don&#39;t want other people that I don&#39;t know in my car. I would think there are many others that have similar viewpoints.<blockquote>另外，真正允许他们的车辆用作机器人出租车的TSLA车主比例是多少？根据盈利能力，我可以看到人们购买特斯拉来加入这个计划，但是，我们需要再次看到其背后的经济学。我知道我只是一种观点，但我永远不会让我的一辆车加入机器人出租车计划，因为我不想让我不认识的其他人在我的车里。我想还有很多人有类似的观点。</blockquote>The real upcoming catalysts are future revenue growth and entering the Chinese market. In 2021 TSLA grew its YoY revenue by 70.67%, and their off to a great start after Q1 2022. Only time will tell what type of growth rate TSLA can maintain, but too many people are assuming that TSLA will obliterate the competition. Over the next several years, we could see TSLA&#39;s growth rate become significantly reduced as more luxury operators put EVs on the road.<blockquote>真正即将到来的催化剂是未来的收入增长和进入中国市场。2021年，特斯拉收入同比增长70.67%，在2022年第一季度之后取得了良好的开端。只有时间才能证明特斯拉能够保持什么样的增长率，但太多人认为特斯拉将消灭竞争对手。在接下来的几年里，随着更多的豪华运营商将电动汽车上路，我们可能会看到特斯拉的增长率大幅下降。</blockquote>At TSLA&#39;s current margins, they would need to increase their revenue by 444.55% to $276.47 billion to produce the same amount of net income ($37.34b) that FB produces today at their current 13.51% profit margin. Maybe TSLA can get there in the future, but why should TSLA be valued at almost $1 trillion today, considering not a single metric of theirs is similar to FB or GOOGL, and TSLA&#39;s growth across any of the sectors isn&#39;t larger than FB or GOOGL?<blockquote>按照TSLA目前的利润率，他们需要将收入增加444.55%，达到2,764.7亿美元，才能产生与FB目前13.51%利润率相同的净利润($37.34 B)。也许TSLA未来可以实现这一目标，但为什么TSLA今天的估值应该接近1万亿美元，因为他们没有一个指标与FB或GOOGL相似，而且TSLA在任何领域的增长都不比FB或GOOGL大？</blockquote>Tesla Continues To Dilute Shareholders, And Almost No Shareholders Care<blockquote>特斯拉不断稀释股东，几乎没有股东关心</blockquote>Dilution kills shareholder value. Look, I am a shareholder of TSLA, and I hate that my shares continue to be diluted. These numbers are split-adjusted that I am using. Over the past decade,TSLA has diluted its shares by 80.93%. This is horrible compared to big tech, yet investors can&#39;t buy enough TSLA shares. TSLA finished 2012 with 572.6 million shares and, as of its last filing, had increased its outstanding shares to 1.036 billion shares.<blockquote>稀释会扼杀股东价值。听着，我是特斯拉的股东，我讨厌我的股份继续被稀释。这些数字是我正在使用的分割调整的。过去十年，TSLA的股份稀释了80.93%。与大型科技公司相比，这是可怕的，但投资者无法购买足够的特斯拉股票。截至2012年底，特斯拉持有5.726亿股股票，截至上次提交文件，其流通股已增至10.36亿股。</blockquote>This is the equivalent of me taking a pizza, and instead of giving you a slice, cutting another 6.5 slices, then giving you one. The pizza represents TSLA, the company, and they basically turned an 8-slice pie into a 14.5-slice pie, reducing shareholder&#39;s ownership and the amount of equity, revenue, and EPS our shares represent.<blockquote>这相当于我拿了一个披萨，不是给你一片，而是再切6.5片，然后给你一片。披萨代表TSLA公司，他们基本上将8片馅饼变成了14.5片馅饼，减少了股东所有权以及我们的股票所代表的股本、收入和每股收益。</blockquote>If you want to see what a true shepherd of shareholder value looks like, turn to AAPL. In 2012 AAPL had 26.3 billion shares outstanding. Over the past decade, AAPL has repurchased 10.09 billion shares, reducing its outstanding shares by 38.37%. Every quarter, AAPL is buying back shares and increasing the ownership its shares represent. TSLA, on the other hand, continues to dilute shareholders by increasing shares YOY.<blockquote>如果您想了解真正的股东价值牧羊人是什么样子，请转向AAPL。2012年，AAPL拥有263亿股已发行股票。过去十年，AAPL回购了100.9亿股，流通股减少了38.37%。每个季度，苹果公司都会回购股票并增加其股票所代表的所有权。另一方面，特斯拉继续通过同比增持来稀释股东权益。</blockquote>I Could Be Completely Wrong, And Tesla Could Continue Growing At These Rates<blockquote>我可能完全错了，特斯拉可能会继续以这样的速度增长</blockquote>TSLA&#39;s vehicle deliveries continue to outpace its growing production. YoY TSLA&#39;s deliveries increased by 68% in Q1, adding 125,171 delivered vehicles to its customers. TSLA just began Model Y deliveries from the Austin facility, and production at the Gigafactory in Berlin started in March of 2022. TSLA&#39;s Shanghai facility had strong production rates prior to the spike in COVID that resulted in temporary shutdowns. TSLA isn&#39;t just focusing on the U.S, they have Europe and China in their sights.<blockquote>特斯拉的汽车交付量继续超过其产量增长速度。特斯拉第一季度的交付量同比增长68%，向客户交付了125,171辆汽车。TSLA刚刚开始从奥斯汀工厂交付Model Y，柏林超级工厂的生产于2022年3月开始。在新冠疫情激增导致暂时关闭之前，特斯拉上海工厂的生产率强劲。特斯拉不仅仅关注美国，他们还将目光投向了欧洲和中国。</blockquote>EVs accounted for 488,000 sales in the U.S for 2021, and the previous projection was that EVs would account for 670,000 units sold in 2022. Oil has hovered around $100 per barrel and could render the previous projections of 37% increased EV sales domestically for 2022 conservative. TSLA is in a prime position to capitalize on this trend. In 2021 TSLA vehicles accounted for 61.89% of EVs sold in the U.S (301,998 / 488,000).<blockquote>2021年，电动汽车在美国的销量为488,000辆，此前的预测是2022年电动汽车的销量将达到670,000辆。油价一直徘徊在每桶100美元左右，这可能会使之前对2022年国内电动汽车销量增长37%的预测变得保守。特斯拉处于利用这一趋势的有利位置。2021年，TSLA汽车占美国电动汽车销量的61.89%（301,998/488,000辆）。</blockquote>Hypothetically, if the previous projection of 670,000 EV sales for 2022 is accurate and TSLA maintains its current margin, they would sell 414,628 vehicles throughout the U.S in 2022. If gas prices do alter the decision-making process when deciding between a combustible engine or an EV, then TSLA could continue surprising the market with QoQ earnings beats.<blockquote>假设，如果之前对2022年电动汽车销量670,000辆的预测是准确的，并且TSLA保持目前的利润率，那么2022年他们将在美国销售414,628辆汽车。如果汽油价格确实改变了在决定燃油发动机还是电动汽车时的决策过程，那么特斯拉可能会继续以季度盈利超出市场预期。</blockquote>The U.S has a national goal of reaching 50% of domestic auto sales coming from EVs. In 2021, EVs accounted for 3.26% of total sales in the U.S auto market. Based on U.S auto sales in 2021, annual EV sales would need to grow by 6,989,403 to reach a 50% EV to combustible engine ratio. Hypothetically if U.S auto sales stayed flat but EVs reached 50% of the market in 2030 they would sell 7,477,403 vehicles. If TSLA&#39;s dominance in the EV sector was to drop from 61.89% to 15% due to increased competition, they would generate 1,121,610 in sales compared to 301,998 in 2021. When you add in Europe and China, TSLA certainly has the ability to become a top auto manufacturer by sales next decade.<blockquote>美国的国家目标是电动汽车占国内汽车销量的50%。2021年，电动汽车占美国汽车市场总销量的3.26%。根据2021年美国汽车销量，电动汽车年销量需要增长6,989,403辆，才能达到电动汽车与内燃机的比例50%。假设，如果美国汽车销量持平，但电动汽车在2030年达到市场的50%，他们将售出7,477,403辆汽车。如果特斯拉在电动汽车领域的主导地位因竞争加剧而从61.89%下降至15%，那么它们的销量将为1,121,610辆，而2021年为301,998辆。如果加上欧洲和中国，特斯拉当然有能力在未来十年成为销量第一的汽车制造商。</blockquote>Bulls aren&#39;t incorrect to be excited about TSLA. The world is moving toward EVs, and TSLA is the crème de la crème. As I said in the beginning, I am bullish about TSLA&#39;s future prospects, but I think the valuation today is overinflated. Nobody can predict the future, but I have no doubt that TSLA will continue to grow its sales YoY.<blockquote>多头对特斯拉感到兴奋并没有错。世界正在走向电动汽车，而TSLA是其中的佼佼者。正如我一开始所说，我看好TSLA的未来前景，但我认为今天的估值被夸大了。没有人能预测未来，但我毫不怀疑特斯拉的销量将继续同比增长。</blockquote>The question becomes, how much growth will they be able to achieve YoY? In 2021, TM generated $226.48 billion of revenue and, based on the future of EVs, TSLA certainly could achieve this level of revenue in the future. Based on TSLA&#39;s current 13.51% profit margin, if they achieved TM&#39;s level of revenue, they would generate $30.59 billion of net income, which would definitely make today&#39;s valuation look more realistic.<blockquote>问题变成了，他们能够实现多少同比增长？2021年，TM创造了2264.8亿美元的收入，基于电动汽车的未来，TSLA未来肯定可以达到这一收入水平。基于TSLA目前13.51%的利润率，如果他们达到TM的收入水平，他们将产生305.9亿美元的净利润，这肯定会让今天的估值看起来更加现实。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c9176fa9bebc2c940e038cafd23229\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Tesla<blockquote>特斯拉</blockquote>Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote>You&#39;re probably wondering how I can be a shareholder and be a bear on TSLA&#39;s valuation at the same time. It&#39;s simple; my wife bought shares of TSLA, which makes me a shareholder. My stance has always been bullish on the company and bearish on the valuation. What Elon Musk and the team at TSLA has accomplished is astonishing, and they deserve nothing but respect.<blockquote>你可能想知道我怎么能既是股东又看跌特斯拉估值。很简单；我的妻子购买了特斯拉的股票，这使我成为股东。我的立场一直是看多公司，看空估值。埃隆·马斯克和特斯拉团队所取得的成就令人惊叹，他们只值得尊重。</blockquote>Keep in mind a company and a company&#39;s stock are two separate things. TSLA continues to dilute shareholders, and they and the market are valuing TSLA as if it&#39;s FB or GOOGL. TSLA is not a technology company; it&#39;s an automobile company, as the automotive segments drive 100% of its gross revenue and net income.<blockquote>请记住，公司和公司的股票是两回事。特斯拉继续稀释股东权益，他们和市场对特斯拉的估值就好像它是FB或GOOGL一样。TSLA不是一家科技公司；它是一家汽车公司，因为汽车部门占其总收入和净利润的100%。</blockquote>TSLA is trading at a P/E of 113.81, a P/S of 15.38, and a 142.52x multiple on its FCF. The numbers are drastically inflated as TSLA has no business trading at a larger P/S multiple than AMZN, which trades at 11.31 P/S when it has grown its revenue by $341.76 billion over the previous 3.25 years compared to TSLA&#39;s $40.73 billion of revenue growth. TSLA has generated $6.93 billion in FCF over the TTM, while Mr. Market has placed a 142.52x multiple on TSLA due to $7.15 billion FCF growth over the past 3.25 years. FB trades at a 15.19x FCF multiple while growing FCF by $23.45 billion over this period which is more than 3x what TSLA has generated in the TTM.<blockquote>TSLA的市盈率为113.81倍，市盈率为15.38倍，自由现金流倍数为142.52倍。这些数字被严重夸大了，因为TSLA的市盈率没有比AMZN更高的业务，AMZN的市盈率为11.31，而TSLA的收入在过去3.25年中增长了3,417.6亿美元，而TSLA的收入增长为407.3亿美元。TSLA通过TTM产生了69.3亿美元的自由现金流，而Mr由于过去3.25年FCF增长71.5亿美元，市场对TSLA的评级为142.52倍。FB的FCF市盈率为15.19倍，而在此期间FCF增长了234.5亿美元，是TSLA在TTM中产生的3倍多。</blockquote>With FB trading at 15.19x FCF, GOOGL at 23.42x FCF, and AAPL at 25.4x FCF, it&#39;s hard to justify any number above 20x for TSLA. I think a 21x FCF multiple is generous and that places TSLA at a market cap of $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion.<blockquote>FB的交易价格为15.19倍FCF，GOOGL为23.42倍FCF，AAPL为25.4倍FCF，因此很难证明TSLA的任何高于20倍的数字是合理的。我认为21倍的自由现金流倍数是慷慨的，这使得TSLA的市值达到1,454.3亿美元，比目前9,869.2亿美元的市值下降了-85.26%。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4507535-tesla-overvalued-by-85-26-percent-and-not-a-technology-company\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4507535-tesla-overvalued-by-85-26-percent-and-not-a-technology-company","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131831539","content_text":"SummaryMake no mistake, Tesla is a phenomenal company that has accomplished the unthinkable as it broke through extreme barriers of entry to disrupt the auto industry.Just because Tesla is a successful company that is causing automotive titans to change from combustible engines to EVs doesn't mean Tesla's stock is a good investment today.100% of gross profit and net income is generated from the automotive sector as Tesla's other businesses lose money, making them an automobile manufacturing company, not a technology company.I compared Tesla's metrics to the auto industry and big tech and the results are the same, Tesla's valuation is egregious.It's rare to find companies that have cult-like followings with loyalists willing to pay any price for its stock. The debate regarding Tesla, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:TSLA) valuation continues to be a topic of conversation between the bulls and the bears. Oneside argues that TSLA's financial growth and future prospects, including FSD, insurance, and robotaxis, justify the current $902.12 billion valuations, while others argue that the current financials and cult-like following have led to a massive overvaluation in TSLA's stock.I tip my hat to Elon Musk, as his accomplishments are second to none. When others called him crazy, Mr. Musk chose one of the hardest industries to compete in, started TSLA from the ground up, went to battle against the auto manufacturers, and succeeded. TSLA is one of the rare success stories that has truly shaped an industry, and the barriers of entry that were overcome are astonishing. TSLA didn't have the capital, manufacturing, credibility, or the infrastructure that its competitors did, yet they found a way to succeed. If the odds weren't enough which TSLA faced, they accomplished their goals without a combustible engine and pioneered an entirely new sector within the automotive industry.Just because TSLA is a great company, it doesn't mean TSLA has a great stock, or it isn't overvalued. I am not bearish on TSLA the company because I believe they still have a long runway of growth ahead of them, but I am bearish on the valuation. Prior to leaving a comment on why I am wrong, please read the article and think about the metrics I am citing; then, I will happily discuss any viewpoints about the analysis.Tesla Vs. The World In The Automotive SectorIt feels like TSLA vs. the world whenever TSLA is discussed. Discussing who makes a better automobile is a matter of opinion, and everyone is correct because it's their opinion. If person A thinks TSLA makes the best car and person B thinks Mercedes Benz makes the best car, they are both correct. Debating over this is pointless, so let's look at the raw numbers.TSLA has a larger market cap than the combination ofToyota(TM),Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY),Daimler(OTCPK:DDAIF),BMW(OTCPK:BMWYY),General Motors(GM),Ford(F),Honda(HMC),Ferrari(RACE),Nissan(OTCPK:NSANY),Subaru(OTCPK:FUJHY),Volvo(OTCPK:VOLAF), andMazda(OTCPK:MZDAY). TSLA's market cap is currently $986.92 billion, while the combination of these 12 companies is $777.41 billion.Steven FiorilloThe P/S ratio is often cited to justify the valuation. The combination of TM, VWAGY, DDAIF, BMWYY, GM, F, HMC, RACE, NSANY, FUJHY, VOLAF, and MZDAY has generated $1.38 trillion in revenue over the TTM, putting their P/S at 0.56, while TSLA has generated $62.19 billion in revenue and has a 15.87 P/S.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaAs a combined entity, these 12 companies have generated $118.29 billion in net income, while TSLA has produced $8.4 billion.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaTSLA is a great company, but its current valuation has become overly inflated. TSLA's market cap is $209.52 billion larger than these 12 auto manufacturers, yet the combination of the 12 auto manufacturers generates $1.32 trillion more in revenue and $109.89 billion more in net income.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaLooking at the market caps, one would assume that TSLA has a dominant majority over its competitors in auto sales within the U.S. According to the2021 data, TSLA sold 2.02% of all vehicles in the U.S. TSLA's market cap reflects a level of dominance that is non-existent.Realistically, TSLA will have a hard time disrupting the sector further due to the price point of their vehicles. The reality is that, unless TSLA can sell a car that rivals a Honda or Toyota, doubling its market share is going to be a daunting task. It's just math. TSLA doesn't have a product for the masses, and while it may continue to grow in the luxury segment, the amount of growth that can be achieved is limited due to the pricing power of the consumer.www.goodcarbadcar.netTesla Isn't A Technology Company And Shouldn't Be Valued As OneThe valuation rebuttal has always been that TSLA isn't an automobile company, rather, it's a technology company.TeslaPage 23 ofTSLA's Q1 2022 slide deck from their earnings call is their statement of operations. Once again, 100% of TSLA's gross profit and net income are derived from automobiles. Energy generation and storage lose money as it generates $616 million in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $688 million. The same goes for Services and others, as this segment generates $1.279 billion in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $1.286 billion. This doesn't even factor in operating expenses.TSLA manufacturers state of the art automobiles, but this doesn't classify them as a technology company, nor should they be classified as one. Since this is always the rebuttal and technology companies trade at larger earnings multiples, I will compare TSLA to Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), and Meta Platforms (FB) and illustrate why TSLA is still drastically overvalued if the market was still to provide it with a tech multiple.Prior to the comparisons, I want to frame the analysis by providing each company's market cap:AAPL $2.69 TrillionMSFT $2.17 TrillionGOOGL $1.62 TrillionAMZN $1.28 TrillionTSLA $986.92 BillionFB $604.62 BillionI am going to start with growth because this is always the key metric bulls point out. Since the close of 2018, which is 3.25 fiscal years, TSLA has grown its revenue from $21.46 billion to $62.19 billion.This is absolutely remarkable, but it doesn't place TSLA in the upper epsilon of technology companies. Over the same period, FB grew its revenue by $63.83 billion, which is more than what TSLA produced in the TTM. FB grew its revenue by more than what TSLA produces and generates just about double the revenue ($119.67 billion), yet TSLA has a larger market cap. For everyone who has used growth as their investment premise, FB having a market cap that's $382.30 less than TSLA nullifies that aspect of the bull thesis. AMZN's market cap is only $294.33 billion larger than TSLA, yet they generated $477.75 billion in revenue and grew their revenue by $341.76 billion in this period. Using revenue growth for TSLA doesn't support the valuation.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaNext, I will turn to profits because, at the end of the day, businesses are in the business of making money. Once again, TSLA has done a fantastic job of monetizing its business and, in 3.25 short years, has gone from losing -$976 million to make $8.4 billion in the TTM for an increase of $9.38 billion. FB has produced $37.34 billion in profit in the TTM, and its net income grew by $15.23 billion over this period. Using growth doesn't support the valuation when FB has a market cap that's $382.30 less than TSLA and grew its profits in this period by almost double what TSLA has generated in the TTM.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaThe new metric bulls are using in their thesis is TSLA's free cash flow (FCF). Once again, TSLA has done an excellent job, going from -$221 million of FCF in 2018 to $6.93 billion of FCF in the TTM. Many companies would love to grow their annual FCF by $7.15 billion over a 3.25-year period, and this should be applauded.Let's look at FB once again, since TSLA's valuation isn't based on its core segment as an automobile manufacturer. FB has grown its FCF over the previous 3.25 years by $23.45 billion, more than 3x TSLA's growth, and has generated $39.81 billion of FCF in the TTM. FB generated roughly 5.75x more FCF than TSLA and grew its FCF by more than 3x what TSLA produces, yet FB has a market cap that's almost $400 billion less than TSLA. Growth within the financials does not support TSLA's valuation, which is a breath away from $1 trillion.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaToday you're paying a 113.81 P/E for TSLA. Paying a larger multiple for a company that's growing its earnings quickly is normal, but TSLA isn't growing by larger amounts than FB, and FB trades at a 16.66 P/E. I have seen TSLA bulls justify the P/E because of TSLA's growth factor, but this doesn't hold up when FB has grown by larger amounts from larger starting positions and has a P/E that's a fraction of TSLA. Look at AAPL, which is the largest company in the world. AAPL has grown its net income by $56.25 billion and its FCF by $52.3 billion over the past 3.25 years, and its P/E is 26.78. People are blindly paying any multiple the market places on TSLA.TSLA is trading at a 15.38 P/S. The justification for this multiple is difficult to defend while AMZN trades at a P/S of 11.31. AMZN's revenue grew by $341.76 billion over the past 3.25 years while TSLA grew their revenue by $40.73 billion. Instead of an absolute basis, looking at this from a percentage aspect, TSLA grew its revenue by 189.78%, while AMZN's grew by 251.32%. The P/S ratio is not a supporting valuation metric as TSLA is trading at a larger multiple than AMZN yet produced $301.03 billion less in revenue growth compared to AMZN. At the very least, TSLA should trade at a lower P/S multiple than AMZN considering their revenue growth was a fraction of AMZN's.TSLA has done an excellent job monetizing its revenue, delivering exceptional margins, and generating FCF. Now that TSLA is generating billions in FCF, it's been inserted into the bull thesis. FCF is a measure of profitability that excludes the non-cash expenses of the income statement and includes spending on equipment and assets as well as changes in working capital from the balance sheet. FCF could be the most underrated and most important financial metric to look at, as this is the pool of capital that companies can utilize to repay debt, pay dividends, buy back shares, make acquisitions, or reinvest in the business.Every investment is the present value of all future cash flow. This is why investors look at the price to FCF valuation. Investors want to pay the cheapest multiple for a company's FCF. Today, you're paying 142.52x TSLA's FCF. Going back to the FCF section, TSLA grew its FCF by $7.15 billion over the past 3.25 years. FB generated $23.45 billion of FCF in this period, which is 3x the amount TSLA grew, yet FB is trading at a 15.19x multiple on price to FCF.Why on earth would you want to pay 142.52x for TSLA's FCF when you could pay 15.19x for FB, which is growing their FCF by more than 3x the amount that TSLA is growing by? How about AAPL? AAPL grew its FCF by $52.3 billion and trades at a 25.4x price to FCF. If I exclude FB for a moment, should TSLA trade at a larger FCF multiple than GOOGL, which has grown its FCF by $46.15 billion over the past 3.25 years? My answer is no because there is no guarantee that TSLA will ever generate $46.15 billion in annual FCF, let alone the $68.99 billion in FCF that GOOGL generates.So what is a fair price to FCF multiple for TSLA? I don't believe TSLA has earned the right to trade at the same multiples as the rest of big tech considering the levels of FCF they produce. If I stick with the methodology that FB is egregiously undervalued, then TSLA should trade above 15.19x its FCF but lower than the 23.42x multiple GOOGL trades at.I don't want to be overly bearish, so I will place a 21x multiple on TSLA's FCF, which is more than fair considering big tech metrics. A 21x multiple on TSLA's FCF puts its market cap at $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion. It's just math, and if TSLA is going to be valued as a technology company, it needs to be compared to the technology companies with similar market caps.At the very least, there isn't a single reason why TSLA's market cap is larger than FB's. There isn't a single metric that TSLA beats FB in. Based on FB's valuation, if TSLA traded at the same FCF multiple, it would have a market cap of $105.19 billion.TSLA has a gross profit margin of 27.1% ($16.85b / $62.19b) and a profit margin of 13.51% ($8.4b / $62.19b). FB has a gross profit margin of 80.34% ($96.14b / $119.67b) and a profit margin of 31.2% ($37.34b / $119.67b). FB has much wider margins and is growing its revenue by larger amounts. This reinforces my methodology as to why TSLA is grossly overvalued. GOOGL has a gross profit margin of 56.93% ($153.9b / $270.33b) and a profit margin of 27.57% ($74.54b / $270.33b).The chances are incredibly slim that TSLA can double its profit margin to be within striking distance of GOOGL's. TSLA should not trade at a larger FCF, P/E, or P/S multiple than FB or GOOGL. While the market would indicate that I am wrong today, eventually, the hype will wear off, and TSLA will trade at a realistic valuation.TSLA's Future Catalysts Have A Long Way To Go Before Impacting Its Bottom LineThere are three main catalysts people discuss, which include insurance, robotaxis, and FSD.TSLA offers insurance using real-time driving behavior. This is currently available to all Model S, Model 3, Model X, and Model Y owners. The catch is that it's only available in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Ohio, Oregon, Texas, and Virginia as of now.TSLA uses a safety rating score to determine the monthly premium for its vehicles. At the largest premium of $130/mo, this would be $1,560 per year. If TSLA converted 100% of their U.S sales in 2021 as an insurance customer, which I think could be possible if TSLA insurance was available in every state, it would have generated $471.12 million in revenue.We have no idea what the margins would have been, but if the margin was 50%, it would have been an additional $235.56 million in net income in 2021. While this is nothing to sneeze at, an additional $235.56 million in net income hardly moves the needle. This could be a $1 billion top-line revenue segment in the future, but with availability in only 7 states, insurance's $1 billion revenue mark is a long way away.TeslaNext,FSD, for which TSLA has created two subscription models, a $99/mo price point and a $199/mo price point. The problem with FSD is that it doesn't make the vehicle fully autonomous, and you still need a driver to be attentive and alert. While I am not arguing that TSLA's FSD isn't leaps and bounds ahead of the competition, the problem is that it's not exactly a self-driving car.The questions around legality and where you can use it pop into my head, and how many of TSLA's drivers opt for this upgrade. Until there is clear legislation and the technology advances to where vehicles can fully drive a person from point A to B while that person takes a nap or reads, I have a hard time believing enough TSLA owners will spend the extra $199/mo on FSD. If there is somewhere where TSLA produces the numbers about how many owners opt for this package, please let me know, and I will crunch the numbers.Which Features Come With My Subscription?The FSD capability features you receive are based on your configuration and location. Not all features are available in all markets, and features are subject to change.Learn more about Autopilot and Full Self-Driving capability features.Note: These features are designed to become more capable over time; however the currently enabled features do not make the vehicle autonomous. The currently enabled features require a fully attentive driver, who has their hands on the wheel and is prepared to take over at any moment.The last catalyst is Robotaxis which many have commented on in my articles before. We're so far off on Robotaxis that this can't be considered in TSLA's upcoming revenue. I would think major legislation would be needed for Robotaxis to exist, and there is no telling how many years away we are from this.Also, what is the percentage of TSLA owners that would actually allow their vehicle to be used as a Robotaxi? Depending on what the profitability is, I can see people buying TSLAs to enroll them in this program, but, once again, we need to see the economics behind it. I know I am just one opinion, but I would never enroll one of my cars into a robotaxi program because I don't want other people that I don't know in my car. I would think there are many others that have similar viewpoints.The real upcoming catalysts are future revenue growth and entering the Chinese market. In 2021 TSLA grew its YoY revenue by 70.67%, and their off to a great start after Q1 2022. Only time will tell what type of growth rate TSLA can maintain, but too many people are assuming that TSLA will obliterate the competition. Over the next several years, we could see TSLA's growth rate become significantly reduced as more luxury operators put EVs on the road.At TSLA's current margins, they would need to increase their revenue by 444.55% to $276.47 billion to produce the same amount of net income ($37.34b) that FB produces today at their current 13.51% profit margin. Maybe TSLA can get there in the future, but why should TSLA be valued at almost $1 trillion today, considering not a single metric of theirs is similar to FB or GOOGL, and TSLA's growth across any of the sectors isn't larger than FB or GOOGL?Tesla Continues To Dilute Shareholders, And Almost No Shareholders CareDilution kills shareholder value. Look, I am a shareholder of TSLA, and I hate that my shares continue to be diluted. These numbers are split-adjusted that I am using. Over the past decade,TSLA has diluted its shares by 80.93%. This is horrible compared to big tech, yet investors can't buy enough TSLA shares. TSLA finished 2012 with 572.6 million shares and, as of its last filing, had increased its outstanding shares to 1.036 billion shares.This is the equivalent of me taking a pizza, and instead of giving you a slice, cutting another 6.5 slices, then giving you one. The pizza represents TSLA, the company, and they basically turned an 8-slice pie into a 14.5-slice pie, reducing shareholder's ownership and the amount of equity, revenue, and EPS our shares represent.If you want to see what a true shepherd of shareholder value looks like, turn to AAPL. In 2012 AAPL had 26.3 billion shares outstanding. Over the past decade, AAPL has repurchased 10.09 billion shares, reducing its outstanding shares by 38.37%. Every quarter, AAPL is buying back shares and increasing the ownership its shares represent. TSLA, on the other hand, continues to dilute shareholders by increasing shares YOY.I Could Be Completely Wrong, And Tesla Could Continue Growing At These RatesTSLA's vehicle deliveries continue to outpace its growing production. YoY TSLA's deliveries increased by 68% in Q1, adding 125,171 delivered vehicles to its customers. TSLA just began Model Y deliveries from the Austin facility, and production at the Gigafactory in Berlin started in March of 2022. TSLA's Shanghai facility had strong production rates prior to the spike in COVID that resulted in temporary shutdowns. TSLA isn't just focusing on the U.S, they have Europe and China in their sights.EVs accounted for 488,000 sales in the U.S for 2021, and the previous projection was that EVs would account for 670,000 units sold in 2022. Oil has hovered around $100 per barrel and could render the previous projections of 37% increased EV sales domestically for 2022 conservative. TSLA is in a prime position to capitalize on this trend. In 2021 TSLA vehicles accounted for 61.89% of EVs sold in the U.S (301,998 / 488,000).Hypothetically, if the previous projection of 670,000 EV sales for 2022 is accurate and TSLA maintains its current margin, they would sell 414,628 vehicles throughout the U.S in 2022. If gas prices do alter the decision-making process when deciding between a combustible engine or an EV, then TSLA could continue surprising the market with QoQ earnings beats.The U.S has a national goal of reaching 50% of domestic auto sales coming from EVs. In 2021, EVs accounted for 3.26% of total sales in the U.S auto market. Based on U.S auto sales in 2021, annual EV sales would need to grow by 6,989,403 to reach a 50% EV to combustible engine ratio. Hypothetically if U.S auto sales stayed flat but EVs reached 50% of the market in 2030 they would sell 7,477,403 vehicles. If TSLA's dominance in the EV sector was to drop from 61.89% to 15% due to increased competition, they would generate 1,121,610 in sales compared to 301,998 in 2021. When you add in Europe and China, TSLA certainly has the ability to become a top auto manufacturer by sales next decade.Bulls aren't incorrect to be excited about TSLA. The world is moving toward EVs, and TSLA is the crème de la crème. As I said in the beginning, I am bullish about TSLA's future prospects, but I think the valuation today is overinflated. Nobody can predict the future, but I have no doubt that TSLA will continue to grow its sales YoY.The question becomes, how much growth will they be able to achieve YoY? In 2021, TM generated $226.48 billion of revenue and, based on the future of EVs, TSLA certainly could achieve this level of revenue in the future. Based on TSLA's current 13.51% profit margin, if they achieved TM's level of revenue, they would generate $30.59 billion of net income, which would definitely make today's valuation look more realistic.TeslaConclusionYou're probably wondering how I can be a shareholder and be a bear on TSLA's valuation at the same time. It's simple; my wife bought shares of TSLA, which makes me a shareholder. My stance has always been bullish on the company and bearish on the valuation. What Elon Musk and the team at TSLA has accomplished is astonishing, and they deserve nothing but respect.Keep in mind a company and a company's stock are two separate things. TSLA continues to dilute shareholders, and they and the market are valuing TSLA as if it's FB or GOOGL. TSLA is not a technology company; it's an automobile company, as the automotive segments drive 100% of its gross revenue and net income.TSLA is trading at a P/E of 113.81, a P/S of 15.38, and a 142.52x multiple on its FCF. The numbers are drastically inflated as TSLA has no business trading at a larger P/S multiple than AMZN, which trades at 11.31 P/S when it has grown its revenue by $341.76 billion over the previous 3.25 years compared to TSLA's $40.73 billion of revenue growth. TSLA has generated $6.93 billion in FCF over the TTM, while Mr. Market has placed a 142.52x multiple on TSLA due to $7.15 billion FCF growth over the past 3.25 years. FB trades at a 15.19x FCF multiple while growing FCF by $23.45 billion over this period which is more than 3x what TSLA has generated in the TTM.With FB trading at 15.19x FCF, GOOGL at 23.42x FCF, and AAPL at 25.4x FCF, it's hard to justify any number above 20x for TSLA. I think a 21x FCF multiple is generous and that places TSLA at a market cap of $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":616762077,"gmtCreate":1652003764199,"gmtModify":1652003765583,"author":{"id":"3581346389720502","authorId":"3581346389720502","name":"hello369","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f472aef15b4385af1feba4d7bd16e06","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d54f48232ec41d764838ad8d7c381060","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581346389720502","authorIdStr":"3581346389720502"},"htmlText":"Please like&nbsp;","listText":"Please like&nbsp;","text":"Please like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/616762077","repostId":1131831539,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131831539","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1651980653,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131831539?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-05-08 11:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Overvalued By 85.26% And Not A Technology Company<blockquote>特斯拉：高估85.26%不是科技公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131831539","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryMake no mistake, Tesla is a phenomenal company that has accomplished the unthinkable as it broke through extreme barriers of entry to disrupt the auto industry.Just because Tesla is a successfu","content":"<html><head></head><body>Summary<blockquote><html><head></head><body>总结</body></html></blockquote><ul><li>Make no mistake, Tesla is a phenomenal company that has accomplished the unthinkable as it broke through extreme barriers of entry to disrupt the auto industry.</li><li>Just because Tesla is a successful company that is causing automotive titans to change from combustible engines to EVs doesn&#39;t mean Tesla&#39;s stock is a good investment today.</li><li>100% of gross profit and net income is generated from the automotive sector as Tesla&#39;s other businesses lose money, making them an automobile manufacturing company, not a technology company.</li><li>I compared Tesla&#39;s metrics to the auto industry and big tech and the results are the same, Tesla&#39;s valuation is egregious.</li></ul>It&#39;s rare to find companies that have cult-like followings with loyalists willing to pay any price for its stock. The debate regarding Tesla, Inc.&#39;s (NASDAQ:TSLA) valuation continues to be a topic of conversation between the bulls and the bears. Oneside argues that TSLA&#39;s financial growth and future prospects, including FSD, insurance, and robotaxis, justify the current $902.12 billion valuations, while others argue that the current financials and cult-like following have led to a massive overvaluation in TSLA&#39;s stock.<blockquote><ul><li>毫无疑问，特斯拉是一家非凡的公司，它突破了极端的进入壁垒，颠覆了汽车行业，取得了不可思议的成就。</li><li>仅仅因为特斯拉是一家成功的公司，正在推动汽车巨头从内燃机转向电动汽车，并不意味着特斯拉的股票今天是一项不错的投资。</li><li>由于特斯拉的其他业务都在亏损，100%的毛利润和净利润都来自汽车部门，这使他们成为一家汽车制造公司，而不是一家科技公司。</li><li>我将特斯拉的指标与汽车行业和大型科技公司进行了比较，结果是相同的，特斯拉的估值令人震惊。</li></ul>很少有公司拥有狂热的追随者，忠诚者愿意为其股票支付任何价格。关于特斯拉公司（纳斯达克：TSLA）估值的争论仍然是多头和空头之间的话题。Oneside认为，TSLA的财务增长和未来前景（包括FSD、保险和机器人出租车）证明了当前9021.2亿美元的估值是合理的，而其他人则认为，当前的财务状况和狂热的追随者导致了TSLA股票的大幅高估。</blockquote>I tip my hat to Elon Musk, as his accomplishments are second to none. When others called him crazy, Mr. Musk chose one of the hardest industries to compete in, started TSLA from the ground up, went to battle against the auto manufacturers, and succeeded. TSLA is one of the rare success stories that has truly shaped an industry, and the barriers of entry that were overcome are astonishing. TSLA didn&#39;t have the capital, manufacturing, credibility, or the infrastructure that its competitors did, yet they found a way to succeed. If the odds weren&#39;t enough which TSLA faced, they accomplished their goals without a combustible engine and pioneered an entirely new sector within the automotive industry.<blockquote>我向埃隆·马斯克致敬，因为他的成就是首屈一指的。当别人说他疯了时，马斯克先生选择了一个最难竞争的行业，白手起家创办了特斯拉，与汽车制造商作战，并取得了成功。特斯拉是真正塑造了一个行业的罕见成功故事之一，所克服的进入壁垒令人惊讶。特斯拉不像竞争对手那样拥有资本、制造、信誉或基础设施，但他们找到了成功的方法。如果特斯拉面临的机会还不够，他们在没有燃油发动机的情况下实现了目标，并在汽车行业开创了一个全新的领域。</blockquote>Just because TSLA is a great company, it doesn&#39;t mean TSLA has a great stock, or it isn&#39;t overvalued. I am not bearish on TSLA the company because I believe they still have a long runway of growth ahead of them, but I am bearish on the valuation. Prior to leaving a comment on why I am wrong, please read the article and think about the metrics I am citing; then, I will happily discuss any viewpoints about the analysis.<blockquote>仅仅因为特斯拉是一家伟大的公司，并不意味着特斯拉有一只伟大的股票，或者它没有被高估。我并不看跌特斯拉这家公司，因为我相信他们还有很长的增长之路，但我看跌估值。在评论我为什么错之前，请阅读这篇文章并思考我引用的指标；然后，我会很乐意讨论任何关于分析的观点。</blockquote>Tesla Vs. The World In The Automotive Sector<blockquote>特斯拉与汽车领域的世界</blockquote>It feels like TSLA vs. the world whenever TSLA is discussed. Discussing who makes a better automobile is a matter of opinion, and everyone is correct because it&#39;s their opinion. If person A thinks TSLA makes the best car and person B thinks Mercedes Benz makes the best car, they are both correct. Debating over this is pointless, so let&#39;s look at the raw numbers.<blockquote>每当讨论特斯拉时，感觉就像特斯拉对抗世界。讨论谁制造的汽车更好是见仁见智的问题，每个人都是正确的，因为这是他们的观点。如果A人认为特斯拉制造的汽车最好，B人认为奔驰制造的汽车最好，那么他们都是正确的。争论这个是没有意义的，所以让我们看看原始数据。</blockquote>TSLA has a larger market cap than the combination ofToyota(TM),Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY),Daimler(OTCPK:DDAIF),BMW(OTCPK:BMWYY),General Motors(GM),Ford(F),Honda(HMC),Ferrari(RACE),Nissan(OTCPK:NSANY),Subaru(OTCPK:FUJHY),Volvo(OTCPK:VOLAF), andMazda(OTCPK:MZDAY). TSLA&#39;s market cap is currently $986.92 billion, while the combination of these 12 companies is $777.41 billion.<blockquote>特斯拉的市值比丰田(TM)、大众(OTCPK：VWAGY)、戴姆勒(OTCPK：DDAIF)、宝马(OTCPK：BMWYY)、通用汽车(GM)、福特(F)、本田(HMC)的总和还要大)、法拉利(RACE)、日产(OTCPK：NSANY)、斯巴鲁(OTCPK：FUJHY)、沃尔沃(OTCPK：VOLAF)和马自达(OTCPK：MZDAY)。特斯拉的市值目前为9869.2亿美元，而这12家公司的市值总和为7774.1亿美元。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff930d2442bf282c1bd880cca408eb94\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛</blockquote>The P/S ratio is often cited to justify the valuation. The combination of TM, VWAGY, DDAIF, BMWYY, GM, F, HMC, RACE, NSANY, FUJHY, VOLAF, and MZDAY has generated $1.38 trillion in revenue over the TTM, putting their P/S at 0.56, while TSLA has generated $62.19 billion in revenue and has a 15.87 P/S.<blockquote>市盈率经常被用来证明估值的合理性。TM、VWAGY、DDAIF、BMWYY、GM、F、HMC、RACE、NSANY、FUJHY、VOLAF和MZDAY的组合在TTM上创造了1.38万亿美元的收入，市盈率为0.56，而TSLA则创造了621.9亿美元的收入，市盈率为15.87。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9b9661fde232925a758c38fd2e93f36\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛，寻求阿尔法</blockquote>As a combined entity, these 12 companies have generated $118.29 billion in net income, while TSLA has produced $8.4 billion.<blockquote>作为一个合并后的实体，这12家公司创造了1182.9亿美元的净利润，而TSLA创造了84亿美元。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d25806eb839eb9ca2b4ef3c24218048c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛，寻求阿尔法</blockquote>TSLA is a great company, but its current valuation has become overly inflated. TSLA&#39;s market cap is $209.52 billion larger than these 12 auto manufacturers, yet the combination of the 12 auto manufacturers generates $1.32 trillion more in revenue and $109.89 billion more in net income.<blockquote>特斯拉是一家伟大的公司，但其目前的估值已经过度膨胀。特斯拉的市值比这12家汽车制造商高出2095.2亿美元，但这12家汽车制造商加起来的收入多出1.32万亿美元，净利润多出1098.9亿美元。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1b686de4009ca733ff9651ce0d9fcaf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛，寻求阿尔法</blockquote>Looking at the market caps, one would assume that TSLA has a dominant majority over its competitors in auto sales within the U.S. According to the2021 data, TSLA sold 2.02% of all vehicles in the U.S. TSLA&#39;s market cap reflects a level of dominance that is non-existent.<blockquote>从市值来看，人们会认为特斯拉在美国的汽车销量中比竞争对手占据主导地位。根据2021年的数据，TSLA的销量占美国所有汽车的2.02%。TSLA的市值反映了不存在的主导地位。</blockquote>Realistically, TSLA will have a hard time disrupting the sector further due to the price point of their vehicles. The reality is that, unless TSLA can sell a car that rivals a Honda or Toyota, doubling its market share is going to be a daunting task. It&#39;s just math. TSLA doesn&#39;t have a product for the masses, and while it may continue to grow in the luxury segment, the amount of growth that can be achieved is limited due to the pricing power of the consumer.<blockquote>实际上，由于其车辆的价格，特斯拉将很难进一步扰乱该行业。现实情况是，除非特斯拉能够销售出与本田或丰田相媲美的汽车，否则将其市场份额翻一番将是一项艰巨的任务。只是数学而已。特斯拉没有面向大众的产品，虽然它在豪华车领域可能会继续增长，但由于消费者的定价能力，所能实现的增长是有限的。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/442ffe151dd83bc524785857925f9797\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>www.goodcarbadcar.net<blockquote>www.goodcarbadcar.net</blockquote>Tesla Isn&#39;t A Technology Company And Shouldn&#39;t Be Valued As One<blockquote>特斯拉不是一家科技公司，也不应该被视为一家科技公司</blockquote>The valuation rebuttal has always been that TSLA isn&#39;t an automobile company, rather, it&#39;s a technology company.<blockquote>估值反驳一直是特斯拉不是一家汽车公司，而是一家科技公司。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbc9ccb2cb8a0e7d40804db24e183214\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Tesla<blockquote>特斯拉</blockquote>Page 23 ofTSLA&#39;s Q1 2022 slide deck from their earnings call is their statement of operations. Once again, 100% of TSLA&#39;s gross profit and net income are derived from automobiles. Energy generation and storage lose money as it generates $616 million in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $688 million. The same goes for Services and others, as this segment generates $1.279 billion in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $1.286 billion. This doesn&#39;t even factor in operating expenses.<blockquote>特斯拉2022年第一季度收益看涨期权幻灯片的第23页是他们的运营报表。再次，TSLA的毛利润和净利润100%来自汽车。能源生产和存储亏损，因为它产生了6.16亿美元的收入，而该收入的成本为6.88亿美元。服务和其他部门也是如此，因为该部门产生了12.79亿美元的收入，而该收入的成本为12.86亿美元。这甚至没有考虑运营费用。</blockquote>TSLA manufacturers state of the art automobiles, but this doesn&#39;t classify them as a technology company, nor should they be classified as one. Since this is always the rebuttal and technology companies trade at larger earnings multiples, I will compare TSLA to Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), and Meta Platforms (FB) and illustrate why TSLA is still drastically overvalued if the market was still to provide it with a tech multiple.<blockquote>TSLA制造最先进的汽车，但这并不能将它们归类为科技公司，也不应该归类为科技公司。由于这始终是反驳，而且科技公司的市盈率较高，我将将TSLA与苹果(AAPL)、微软(MSFT)、亚马逊(AMZN)、Alphabet(GOOG)(GOOGL)和Meta Platforms进行比较(FB)并说明如果市场仍然为特斯拉提供科技市盈率，为什么特斯拉仍然被严重高估。</blockquote>Prior to the comparisons, I want to frame the analysis by providing each company&#39;s market cap:<blockquote>在进行比较之前，我想通过提供每家公司的市值来构建分析：</blockquote><ul><li>AAPL $2.69 Trillion</li><li>MSFT $2.17 Trillion</li><li>GOOGL $1.62 Trillion</li><li>AMZN $1.28 Trillion</li><li>TSLA $986.92 Billion</li><li>FB $604.62 Billion</li></ul>I am going to start with growth because this is always the key metric bulls point out. Since the close of 2018, which is 3.25 fiscal years, TSLA has grown its revenue from $21.46 billion to $62.19 billion.<blockquote><ul><li>苹果公司2.69万亿美元</li><li>MSFT 2.17万亿美元</li><li>GOOGL 1.62万亿美元</li><li>AMZN 1.28万亿美元</li><li>特斯拉9869.2亿美元</li><li>FB 6046.2亿美元</li></ul>我将从增长开始，因为这始终是多头指出的关键指标。自2018年底（即3.25财年）以来，TSLA的收入已从214.6亿美元增长至621.9亿美元。</blockquote>This is absolutely remarkable, but it doesn&#39;t place TSLA in the upper epsilon of technology companies. Over the same period, FB grew its revenue by $63.83 billion, which is more than what TSLA produced in the TTM. FB grew its revenue by more than what TSLA produces and generates just about double the revenue ($119.67 billion), yet TSLA has a larger market cap. For everyone who has used growth as their investment premise, FB having a market cap that&#39;s $382.30 less than TSLA nullifies that aspect of the bull thesis. AMZN&#39;s market cap is only $294.33 billion larger than TSLA, yet they generated $477.75 billion in revenue and grew their revenue by $341.76 billion in this period. Using revenue growth for TSLA doesn&#39;t support the valuation.<blockquote>这绝对是了不起的，但它并没有将特斯拉置于科技公司的上位。同期，FB的收入增长了638.3亿美元，超过了TSLA在TTM中的收入。FB的收入增长超过了TSLA的收入，几乎是其收入的两倍（1196.7亿美元），但TSLA的市值更大。对于每个以增长为投资前提的人来说，FB的市值比TSLA低382.30美元，这使得牛市论点的这一方面无效。AMZN的市值仅比TSLA大2943.3亿美元，但他们创造了4777.5亿美元的收入，在此期间收入增长了3417.6亿美元。使用TSLA的收入增长并不支持估值。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c0fbd4eb93f026c4575ee8f77f53e4b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛，寻求阿尔法</blockquote>Next, I will turn to profits because, at the end of the day, businesses are in the business of making money. Once again, TSLA has done a fantastic job of monetizing its business and, in 3.25 short years, has gone from losing -$976 million to make $8.4 billion in the TTM for an increase of $9.38 billion. FB has produced $37.34 billion in profit in the TTM, and its net income grew by $15.23 billion over this period. Using growth doesn&#39;t support the valuation when FB has a market cap that&#39;s $382.30 less than TSLA and grew its profits in this period by almost double what TSLA has generated in the TTM.<blockquote>接下来，我将转向利润，因为归根结底，企业是在赚钱。TSLA再次在业务货币化方面做得非常出色，在短短3.25年内，TTM从亏损9.76亿美元增至84亿美元，增加了93.8亿美元。FB在TTM创造了373.4亿美元的利润，净利润在此期间增长了152.3亿美元。当FB的市值比TSLA低382.30美元，并且在此期间的利润增长几乎是TSLA在TTM中的两倍时，使用增长并不能支持估值。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9716477607711ee0b6d4f77eb24c890\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛，寻求阿尔法</blockquote>The new metric bulls are using in their thesis is TSLA&#39;s free cash flow (FCF). Once again, TSLA has done an excellent job, going from -$221 million of FCF in 2018 to $6.93 billion of FCF in the TTM. Many companies would love to grow their annual FCF by $7.15 billion over a 3.25-year period, and this should be applauded.<blockquote>多头在论文中使用的新指标是特斯拉的自由现金流（FCF）。TSLA再次表现出色，从2018年的-2.21亿美元自由现金流增至TTM的69.3亿美元自由现金流。许多公司希望在3.25年内将其年度自由现金流增加71.5亿美元，这应该受到赞扬。</blockquote>Let&#39;s look at FB once again, since TSLA&#39;s valuation isn&#39;t based on its core segment as an automobile manufacturer. FB has grown its FCF over the previous 3.25 years by $23.45 billion, more than 3x TSLA&#39;s growth, and has generated $39.81 billion of FCF in the TTM. FB generated roughly 5.75x more FCF than TSLA and grew its FCF by more than 3x what TSLA produces, yet FB has a market cap that&#39;s almost $400 billion less than TSLA. Growth within the financials does not support TSLA&#39;s valuation, which is a breath away from $1 trillion.<blockquote>让我们再次看看FB，因为TSLA的估值并不是基于其作为汽车制造商的核心细分市场。FB的FCF在过去3.25年中增长了234.5亿美元，是TSLA增长的3倍多，并在TTM中产生了398.1亿美元的FCF。FB产生的自由现金流大约是TSLA的5.75倍，其自由现金流增长是TSLA的3倍多，但FB的市值比TSLA少近4000亿美元。金融界的增长并不能支撑TSLA的估值，该估值距离1万亿美元仅一步之遥。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/902a7074eda9e8f2f2765e0833423d2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛，寻求阿尔法</blockquote>Today you&#39;re paying a 113.81 P/E for TSLA. Paying a larger multiple for a company that&#39;s growing its earnings quickly is normal, but TSLA isn&#39;t growing by larger amounts than FB, and FB trades at a 16.66 P/E. I have seen TSLA bulls justify the P/E because of TSLA&#39;s growth factor, but this doesn&#39;t hold up when FB has grown by larger amounts from larger starting positions and has a P/E that&#39;s a fraction of TSLA. Look at AAPL, which is the largest company in the world. AAPL has grown its net income by $56.25 billion and its FCF by $52.3 billion over the past 3.25 years, and its P/E is 26.78. People are blindly paying any multiple the market places on TSLA.<blockquote>今天，您为TSLA支付的市盈率为113.81。为一家盈利快速增长的公司支付更高的市盈率是正常的，但TSLA的增长幅度并不比FB大，FB的市盈率为16.66。我见过TSLA多头因为TSLA的增长因素而证明市盈率是合理的，但当FB从较大的起始头寸增长了更多并且市盈率只是TSLA的一小部分时，这就不成立了。看看AAPL，它是世界上最大的公司。过去3.25年，AAPL的净利润增长了562.5亿美元，自由现金流增长了523亿美元，市盈率为26.78。人们盲目地支付特斯拉市场份额的任何倍数。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75168f6e39ced721cf0c53d78481a983\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TSLA is trading at a 15.38 P/S. The justification for this multiple is difficult to defend while AMZN trades at a P/S of 11.31. AMZN&#39;s revenue grew by $341.76 billion over the past 3.25 years while TSLA grew their revenue by $40.73 billion. Instead of an absolute basis, looking at this from a percentage aspect, TSLA grew its revenue by 189.78%, while AMZN&#39;s grew by 251.32%. The P/S ratio is not a supporting valuation metric as TSLA is trading at a larger multiple than AMZN yet produced $301.03 billion less in revenue growth compared to AMZN. At the very least, TSLA should trade at a lower P/S multiple than AMZN considering their revenue growth was a fraction of AMZN&#39;s.<blockquote>TSLA的交易价格为15.38 P/S。当AMZN的市盈率为11.31时，这一市盈率的合理性很难辩护。过去3.25年，AMZN的收入增长了3417.6亿美元，而TSLA的收入增长了407.3亿美元。从百分比来看，特斯拉的收入增长了189.78%，而亚马逊的收入增长了251.32%，而不是绝对基数。市盈率并不是一个支持性的估值指标，因为TSLA的市盈率高于AMZN，但与AMZN相比，其收入增长却少了3010.3亿美元。至少，考虑到特斯拉的收入增长只是亚马逊的一小部分，特斯拉的市盈率应该低于亚马逊。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aad00a6c490808962705a1a2dae45cfe\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TSLA has done an excellent job monetizing its revenue, delivering exceptional margins, and generating FCF. Now that TSLA is generating billions in FCF, it&#39;s been inserted into the bull thesis. FCF is a measure of profitability that excludes the non-cash expenses of the income statement and includes spending on equipment and assets as well as changes in working capital from the balance sheet. FCF could be the most underrated and most important financial metric to look at, as this is the pool of capital that companies can utilize to repay debt, pay dividends, buy back shares, make acquisitions, or reinvest in the business.<blockquote>特斯拉在收入货币化、提供卓越的利润率和产生自由现金流方面做得非常出色。现在，特斯拉正在产生数十亿美元的自由现金流，它已被纳入牛市论点。FCF是衡量盈利能力的指标，不包括损益表中的非现金费用，包括设备和资产支出以及资产负债表中营运资本的变化。自由现金流可能是最被低估和最重要的财务指标，因为这是公司可以用来偿还债务、支付股息、回购股票、进行收购或对业务进行再投资的资本池。</blockquote>Every investment is the present value of all future cash flow. This is why investors look at the price to FCF valuation. Investors want to pay the cheapest multiple for a company&#39;s FCF. Today, you&#39;re paying 142.52x TSLA&#39;s FCF. Going back to the FCF section, TSLA grew its FCF by $7.15 billion over the past 3.25 years. FB generated $23.45 billion of FCF in this period, which is 3x the amount TSLA grew, yet FB is trading at a 15.19x multiple on price to FCF.<blockquote>每一项投资都是未来所有现金流的现值。这就是为什么投资者关注自由现金流估值的价格。投资者希望为公司的自由现金流支付最便宜的倍数。今天，您支付的是TSLA自由现金流的142.52倍。回到自由现金流部分，TSLA的自由现金流在过去3.25年中增长了71.5亿美元。FB在此期间产生了234.5亿美元的FCF，是TSLA增长金额的3倍，但FB的市盈率是FCF的15.19倍。</blockquote>Why on earth would you want to pay 142.52x for TSLA&#39;s FCF when you could pay 15.19x for FB, which is growing their FCF by more than 3x the amount that TSLA is growing by? How about AAPL? AAPL grew its FCF by $52.3 billion and trades at a 25.4x price to FCF. If I exclude FB for a moment, should TSLA trade at a larger FCF multiple than GOOGL, which has grown its FCF by $46.15 billion over the past 3.25 years? My answer is no because there is no guarantee that TSLA will ever generate $46.15 billion in annual FCF, let alone the $68.99 billion in FCF that GOOGL generates.<blockquote>当您可以为FB支付15.19倍的FCF时，您究竟为什么要为TSLA的FCF支付142.52倍的费用，而FB的FCF增长速度是TSLA增长速度的3倍以上？苹果公司怎么样？AAPL的自由现金流增加了523亿美元，交易价格是自由现金流的25.4倍。如果我暂时排除FB，TSLA的自由现金流倍数是否应该高于GOOGL，后者的自由现金流在过去3.25年中增长了461.5亿美元？我的答案是否定的，因为无法保证特斯拉每年能够产生461.5亿美元的自由现金流，更不用说GOOGL产生的689.9亿美元的自由现金流了。</blockquote>So what is a fair price to FCF multiple for TSLA? I don&#39;t believe TSLA has earned the right to trade at the same multiples as the rest of big tech considering the levels of FCF they produce. If I stick with the methodology that FB is egregiously undervalued, then TSLA should trade above 15.19x its FCF but lower than the 23.42x multiple GOOGL trades at.<blockquote>那么TSLA的FCF倍数的合理价格是多少呢？考虑到它们产生的自由现金流水平，我认为特斯拉没有赢得与其他大型科技公司相同倍数的交易权利。如果我坚持FB被严重低估的方法论，那么TSLA的交易价格应该高于其FCF的15.19倍，但低于GOOGL交易价格的23.42倍。</blockquote>I don&#39;t want to be overly bearish, so I will place a 21x multiple on TSLA&#39;s FCF, which is more than fair considering big tech metrics. A 21x multiple on TSLA&#39;s FCF puts its market cap at $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion. It&#39;s just math, and if TSLA is going to be valued as a technology company, it needs to be compared to the technology companies with similar market caps.<blockquote>我不想过于悲观，因此我将TSLA的自由现金流设定为21倍，考虑到大型科技指标，这是非常公平的。TSLA自由现金流的21倍使其市值达到1454.3亿美元，较目前9869.2亿美元的市值下降了-85.26%。这只是数学问题，如果特斯拉要作为一家科技公司进行估值，就需要与市值相似的科技公司进行比较。</blockquote>At the very least, there isn&#39;t a single reason why TSLA&#39;s market cap is larger than FB&#39;s. There isn&#39;t a single metric that TSLA beats FB in. Based on FB&#39;s valuation, if TSLA traded at the same FCF multiple, it would have a market cap of $105.19 billion.<blockquote>至少，TSLA的市值大于FB的原因并不是单一的。TSLA没有一个指标能击败FB。根据FB的估值，如果TSLA以相同的FCF倍数交易，其市值将达到1051.9亿美元。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b81a61d60d9ec098276569cc4a501da0\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TSLA has a gross profit margin of 27.1% ($16.85b / $62.19b) and a profit margin of 13.51% ($8.4b / $62.19b). FB has a gross profit margin of 80.34% ($96.14b / $119.67b) and a profit margin of 31.2% ($37.34b / $119.67b). FB has much wider margins and is growing its revenue by larger amounts. This reinforces my methodology as to why TSLA is grossly overvalued. GOOGL has a gross profit margin of 56.93% ($153.9b / $270.33b) and a profit margin of 27.57% ($74.54b / $270.33b).<blockquote>TSLA的毛利率为27.1%（$16.85 B/$62.19 B），利润率为13.51%（$8.4 B/$62.19 B）。FB的毛利率为80.34%（$96.14 B/$119.67 B），利润率为31.2%（$37.34 B/$119.67 B）。FB的利润率要高得多，收入也在大幅增长。这强化了我关于为什么特斯拉被严重高估的方法论。GOOGL的毛利率为56.93%（$153.9 B/$270.33 B），利润率为27.57%（$745.4 B/$270.33 B）。</blockquote>The chances are incredibly slim that TSLA can double its profit margin to be within striking distance of GOOGL&#39;s. TSLA should not trade at a larger FCF, P/E, or P/S multiple than FB or GOOGL. While the market would indicate that I am wrong today, eventually, the hype will wear off, and TSLA will trade at a realistic valuation.<blockquote>特斯拉将利润率提高一倍，与GOOGL相提并论的可能性微乎其微。TSLA的自由现金流、市盈率或市盈率不应高于FB或GOOGL。虽然市场今天会表明我错了，但最终，炒作将会消退，特斯拉将以现实的估值进行交易。</blockquote>TSLA&#39;s Future Catalysts Have A Long Way To Go Before Impacting Its Bottom Line<blockquote>特斯拉未来的催化剂在影响其利润之前还有很长的路要走</blockquote>There are three main catalysts people discuss, which include insurance, robotaxis, and FSD.TSLA offers insurance using real-time driving behavior. This is currently available to all Model S, Model 3, Model X, and Model Y owners. The catch is that it&#39;s only available in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Ohio, Oregon, Texas, and Virginia as of now.<blockquote>人们讨论的催化剂主要有三个，包括保险、机器人出租车和FSD.TSLA使用实时驾驶行为提供保险。目前，所有Model S、Model 3、Model X和Model Y车主均可使用该功能。问题是，目前它仅在亚利桑那州、科罗拉多州、伊利诺伊州、俄亥俄州、俄勒冈州、德克萨斯州和弗吉尼亚州可用。</blockquote>TSLA uses a safety rating score to determine the monthly premium for its vehicles. At the largest premium of $130/mo, this would be $1,560 per year. If TSLA converted 100% of their U.S sales in 2021 as an insurance customer, which I think could be possible if TSLA insurance was available in every state, it would have generated $471.12 million in revenue.<blockquote>特斯拉使用安全评级分数来确定其车辆的每月保费。以130美元/月的最大保费计算，每年为1,560美元。如果TSLA在2021年将其在美国的销售额100%转化为保险客户（我认为如果每个州都提供TSLA保险，这是可能的），那么它将产生4.7112亿美元的收入。</blockquote>We have no idea what the margins would have been, but if the margin was 50%, it would have been an additional $235.56 million in net income in 2021. While this is nothing to sneeze at, an additional $235.56 million in net income hardly moves the needle. This could be a $1 billion top-line revenue segment in the future, but with availability in only 7 states, insurance&#39;s $1 billion revenue mark is a long way away.<blockquote>我们不知道利润率是多少，但如果利润率为50%，2021年净利润将增加2.3556亿美元。虽然这不容小觑，但额外的2.3556亿美元净利润几乎没有什么影响。这可能是未来10亿美元的营收部分，但由于仅在7个州提供服务，保险业10亿美元的收入大关还有很长的路要走。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e86de6232b9abf7cee46a9607eb09741\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Tesla<blockquote>特斯拉</blockquote>Next,FSD, for which TSLA has created two subscription models, a $99/mo price point and a $199/mo price point. The problem with FSD is that it doesn&#39;t make the vehicle fully autonomous, and you still need a driver to be attentive and alert. While I am not arguing that TSLA&#39;s FSD isn&#39;t leaps and bounds ahead of the competition, the problem is that it&#39;s not exactly a self-driving car.<blockquote>接下来是FSD，TSLA为其创建了两种订阅模式，99美元/月的价格点和199美元/月的价格点。FSD的问题在于，它不能使车辆完全自动驾驶，您仍然需要驾驶员保持专注和警觉。虽然我并不是说TSLA的FSD没有在竞争中遥遥领先，但问题是它并不完全是自动驾驶汽车。</blockquote>The questions around legality and where you can use it pop into my head, and how many of TSLA&#39;s drivers opt for this upgrade. Until there is clear legislation and the technology advances to where vehicles can fully drive a person from point A to B while that person takes a nap or reads, I have a hard time believing enough TSLA owners will spend the extra $199/mo on FSD. If there is somewhere where TSLA produces the numbers about how many owners opt for this package, please let me know, and I will crunch the numbers.<blockquote>有关合法性和在哪里可以使用它的问题突然出现在我的脑海中，以及有多少TSLA的司机选择了这种升级。在有明确的立法和技术进步到车辆可以在一个人午睡或阅读的时候完全驾驶一个人从A点到B点之前，我很难相信有足够多的TSLA车主会在FSD上额外花费199美元/月。如果TSLA在某个地方提供了有关有多少车主选择此套餐的数据，请让我知道，我将处理这些数据。</blockquote>Which Features Come With My Subscription?<blockquote>我的订阅附带哪些功能？</blockquote>The FSD capability features you receive are based on your configuration and location. Not all features are available in all markets, and features are subject to change.Learn more about Autopilot and Full Self-Driving capability features.Note: These features are designed to become more capable over time; however the currently enabled features do not make the vehicle autonomous. The currently enabled features require a fully attentive driver, who has their hands on the wheel and is prepared to take over at any moment.The last catalyst is Robotaxis which many have commented on in my articles before. We&#39;re so far off on Robotaxis that this can&#39;t be considered in TSLA&#39;s upcoming revenue. I would think major legislation would be needed for Robotaxis to exist, and there is no telling how many years away we are from this.<blockquote>您收到的FSD功能基于您的配置和位置。并非所有功能在所有市场都可用，并且功能可能会发生变化。了解有关Autopilot和全自动驾驶功能的更多信息。注意：这些功能旨在随着时间的推移变得更强大；然而，当前启用的特征并不能使车辆自主。目前启用的功能需要一个全神贯注的驾驶员，他的手放在方向盘上，随时准备接管。最后一个催化剂是机器人出租车，许多人在我之前的文章中评论过。我们在机器人出租车方面的差距太大，以至于不能在特斯拉即将到来的收入中考虑这一点。我认为机器人出租车的存在需要重大立法，而且不知道我们还需要多少年。</blockquote>Also, what is the percentage of TSLA owners that would actually allow their vehicle to be used as a Robotaxi? Depending on what the profitability is, I can see people buying TSLAs to enroll them in this program, but, once again, we need to see the economics behind it. I know I am just one opinion, but I would never enroll one of my cars into a robotaxi program because I don&#39;t want other people that I don&#39;t know in my car. I would think there are many others that have similar viewpoints.<blockquote>另外，真正允许他们的车辆用作机器人出租车的TSLA车主比例是多少？根据盈利能力，我可以看到人们购买特斯拉来加入这个计划，但是，我们需要再次看到其背后的经济学。我知道我只是一种观点，但我永远不会让我的一辆车加入机器人出租车计划，因为我不想让我不认识的其他人在我的车里。我想还有很多人有类似的观点。</blockquote>The real upcoming catalysts are future revenue growth and entering the Chinese market. In 2021 TSLA grew its YoY revenue by 70.67%, and their off to a great start after Q1 2022. Only time will tell what type of growth rate TSLA can maintain, but too many people are assuming that TSLA will obliterate the competition. Over the next several years, we could see TSLA&#39;s growth rate become significantly reduced as more luxury operators put EVs on the road.<blockquote>真正即将到来的催化剂是未来的收入增长和进入中国市场。2021年，特斯拉收入同比增长70.67%，在2022年第一季度之后取得了良好的开端。只有时间才能证明特斯拉能够保持什么样的增长率，但太多人认为特斯拉将消灭竞争对手。在接下来的几年里，随着更多的豪华运营商将电动汽车上路，我们可能会看到特斯拉的增长率大幅下降。</blockquote>At TSLA&#39;s current margins, they would need to increase their revenue by 444.55% to $276.47 billion to produce the same amount of net income ($37.34b) that FB produces today at their current 13.51% profit margin. Maybe TSLA can get there in the future, but why should TSLA be valued at almost $1 trillion today, considering not a single metric of theirs is similar to FB or GOOGL, and TSLA&#39;s growth across any of the sectors isn&#39;t larger than FB or GOOGL?<blockquote>按照TSLA目前的利润率，他们需要将收入增加444.55%，达到2,764.7亿美元，才能产生与FB目前13.51%利润率相同的净利润($37.34 B)。也许TSLA未来可以实现这一目标，但为什么TSLA今天的估值应该接近1万亿美元，因为他们没有一个指标与FB或GOOGL相似，而且TSLA在任何领域的增长都不比FB或GOOGL大？</blockquote>Tesla Continues To Dilute Shareholders, And Almost No Shareholders Care<blockquote>特斯拉不断稀释股东，几乎没有股东关心</blockquote>Dilution kills shareholder value. Look, I am a shareholder of TSLA, and I hate that my shares continue to be diluted. These numbers are split-adjusted that I am using. Over the past decade,TSLA has diluted its shares by 80.93%. This is horrible compared to big tech, yet investors can&#39;t buy enough TSLA shares. TSLA finished 2012 with 572.6 million shares and, as of its last filing, had increased its outstanding shares to 1.036 billion shares.<blockquote>稀释会扼杀股东价值。听着，我是特斯拉的股东，我讨厌我的股份继续被稀释。这些数字是我正在使用的分割调整的。过去十年，TSLA的股份稀释了80.93%。与大型科技公司相比，这是可怕的，但投资者无法购买足够的特斯拉股票。截至2012年底，特斯拉持有5.726亿股股票，截至上次提交文件，其流通股已增至10.36亿股。</blockquote>This is the equivalent of me taking a pizza, and instead of giving you a slice, cutting another 6.5 slices, then giving you one. The pizza represents TSLA, the company, and they basically turned an 8-slice pie into a 14.5-slice pie, reducing shareholder&#39;s ownership and the amount of equity, revenue, and EPS our shares represent.<blockquote>这相当于我拿了一个披萨，不是给你一片，而是再切6.5片，然后给你一片。披萨代表TSLA公司，他们基本上将8片馅饼变成了14.5片馅饼，减少了股东所有权以及我们的股票所代表的股本、收入和每股收益。</blockquote>If you want to see what a true shepherd of shareholder value looks like, turn to AAPL. In 2012 AAPL had 26.3 billion shares outstanding. Over the past decade, AAPL has repurchased 10.09 billion shares, reducing its outstanding shares by 38.37%. Every quarter, AAPL is buying back shares and increasing the ownership its shares represent. TSLA, on the other hand, continues to dilute shareholders by increasing shares YOY.<blockquote>如果您想了解真正的股东价值牧羊人是什么样子，请转向AAPL。2012年，AAPL拥有263亿股已发行股票。过去十年，AAPL回购了100.9亿股，流通股减少了38.37%。每个季度，苹果公司都会回购股票并增加其股票所代表的所有权。另一方面，特斯拉继续通过同比增持来稀释股东权益。</blockquote>I Could Be Completely Wrong, And Tesla Could Continue Growing At These Rates<blockquote>我可能完全错了，特斯拉可能会继续以这样的速度增长</blockquote>TSLA&#39;s vehicle deliveries continue to outpace its growing production. YoY TSLA&#39;s deliveries increased by 68% in Q1, adding 125,171 delivered vehicles to its customers. TSLA just began Model Y deliveries from the Austin facility, and production at the Gigafactory in Berlin started in March of 2022. TSLA&#39;s Shanghai facility had strong production rates prior to the spike in COVID that resulted in temporary shutdowns. TSLA isn&#39;t just focusing on the U.S, they have Europe and China in their sights.<blockquote>特斯拉的汽车交付量继续超过其产量增长速度。特斯拉第一季度的交付量同比增长68%，向客户交付了125,171辆汽车。TSLA刚刚开始从奥斯汀工厂交付Model Y，柏林超级工厂的生产于2022年3月开始。在新冠疫情激增导致暂时关闭之前，特斯拉上海工厂的生产率强劲。特斯拉不仅仅关注美国，他们还将目光投向了欧洲和中国。</blockquote>EVs accounted for 488,000 sales in the U.S for 2021, and the previous projection was that EVs would account for 670,000 units sold in 2022. Oil has hovered around $100 per barrel and could render the previous projections of 37% increased EV sales domestically for 2022 conservative. TSLA is in a prime position to capitalize on this trend. In 2021 TSLA vehicles accounted for 61.89% of EVs sold in the U.S (301,998 / 488,000).<blockquote>2021年，电动汽车在美国的销量为488,000辆，此前的预测是2022年电动汽车的销量将达到670,000辆。油价一直徘徊在每桶100美元左右，这可能会使之前对2022年国内电动汽车销量增长37%的预测变得保守。特斯拉处于利用这一趋势的有利位置。2021年，TSLA汽车占美国电动汽车销量的61.89%（301,998/488,000辆）。</blockquote>Hypothetically, if the previous projection of 670,000 EV sales for 2022 is accurate and TSLA maintains its current margin, they would sell 414,628 vehicles throughout the U.S in 2022. If gas prices do alter the decision-making process when deciding between a combustible engine or an EV, then TSLA could continue surprising the market with QoQ earnings beats.<blockquote>假设，如果之前对2022年电动汽车销量670,000辆的预测是准确的，并且TSLA保持目前的利润率，那么2022年他们将在美国销售414,628辆汽车。如果汽油价格确实改变了在决定燃油发动机还是电动汽车时的决策过程，那么特斯拉可能会继续以季度盈利超出市场预期。</blockquote>The U.S has a national goal of reaching 50% of domestic auto sales coming from EVs. In 2021, EVs accounted for 3.26% of total sales in the U.S auto market. Based on U.S auto sales in 2021, annual EV sales would need to grow by 6,989,403 to reach a 50% EV to combustible engine ratio. Hypothetically if U.S auto sales stayed flat but EVs reached 50% of the market in 2030 they would sell 7,477,403 vehicles. If TSLA&#39;s dominance in the EV sector was to drop from 61.89% to 15% due to increased competition, they would generate 1,121,610 in sales compared to 301,998 in 2021. When you add in Europe and China, TSLA certainly has the ability to become a top auto manufacturer by sales next decade.<blockquote>美国的国家目标是电动汽车占国内汽车销量的50%。2021年，电动汽车占美国汽车市场总销量的3.26%。根据2021年美国汽车销量，电动汽车年销量需要增长6,989,403辆，才能达到电动汽车与内燃机的比例50%。假设，如果美国汽车销量持平，但电动汽车在2030年达到市场的50%，他们将售出7,477,403辆汽车。如果特斯拉在电动汽车领域的主导地位因竞争加剧而从61.89%下降至15%，那么它们的销量将为1,121,610辆，而2021年为301,998辆。如果加上欧洲和中国，特斯拉当然有能力在未来十年成为销量第一的汽车制造商。</blockquote>Bulls aren&#39;t incorrect to be excited about TSLA. The world is moving toward EVs, and TSLA is the crème de la crème. As I said in the beginning, I am bullish about TSLA&#39;s future prospects, but I think the valuation today is overinflated. Nobody can predict the future, but I have no doubt that TSLA will continue to grow its sales YoY.<blockquote>多头对特斯拉感到兴奋并没有错。世界正在走向电动汽车，而TSLA是其中的佼佼者。正如我一开始所说，我看好TSLA的未来前景，但我认为今天的估值被夸大了。没有人能预测未来，但我毫不怀疑特斯拉的销量将继续同比增长。</blockquote>The question becomes, how much growth will they be able to achieve YoY? In 2021, TM generated $226.48 billion of revenue and, based on the future of EVs, TSLA certainly could achieve this level of revenue in the future. Based on TSLA&#39;s current 13.51% profit margin, if they achieved TM&#39;s level of revenue, they would generate $30.59 billion of net income, which would definitely make today&#39;s valuation look more realistic.<blockquote>问题变成了，他们能够实现多少同比增长？2021年，TM创造了2264.8亿美元的收入，基于电动汽车的未来，TSLA未来肯定可以达到这一收入水平。基于TSLA目前13.51%的利润率，如果他们达到TM的收入水平，他们将产生305.9亿美元的净利润，这肯定会让今天的估值看起来更加现实。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c9176fa9bebc2c940e038cafd23229\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Tesla<blockquote>特斯拉</blockquote>Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote>You&#39;re probably wondering how I can be a shareholder and be a bear on TSLA&#39;s valuation at the same time. It&#39;s simple; my wife bought shares of TSLA, which makes me a shareholder. My stance has always been bullish on the company and bearish on the valuation. What Elon Musk and the team at TSLA has accomplished is astonishing, and they deserve nothing but respect.<blockquote>你可能想知道我怎么能既是股东又看跌特斯拉估值。很简单；我的妻子购买了特斯拉的股票，这使我成为股东。我的立场一直是看多公司，看空估值。埃隆·马斯克和特斯拉团队所取得的成就令人惊叹，他们只值得尊重。</blockquote>Keep in mind a company and a company&#39;s stock are two separate things. TSLA continues to dilute shareholders, and they and the market are valuing TSLA as if it&#39;s FB or GOOGL. TSLA is not a technology company; it&#39;s an automobile company, as the automotive segments drive 100% of its gross revenue and net income.<blockquote>请记住，公司和公司的股票是两回事。特斯拉继续稀释股东权益，他们和市场对特斯拉的估值就好像它是FB或GOOGL一样。TSLA不是一家科技公司；它是一家汽车公司，因为汽车部门占其总收入和净利润的100%。</blockquote>TSLA is trading at a P/E of 113.81, a P/S of 15.38, and a 142.52x multiple on its FCF. The numbers are drastically inflated as TSLA has no business trading at a larger P/S multiple than AMZN, which trades at 11.31 P/S when it has grown its revenue by $341.76 billion over the previous 3.25 years compared to TSLA&#39;s $40.73 billion of revenue growth. TSLA has generated $6.93 billion in FCF over the TTM, while Mr. Market has placed a 142.52x multiple on TSLA due to $7.15 billion FCF growth over the past 3.25 years. FB trades at a 15.19x FCF multiple while growing FCF by $23.45 billion over this period which is more than 3x what TSLA has generated in the TTM.<blockquote>TSLA的市盈率为113.81倍，市盈率为15.38倍，自由现金流倍数为142.52倍。这些数字被严重夸大了，因为TSLA的市盈率没有比AMZN更高的业务，AMZN的市盈率为11.31，而TSLA的收入在过去3.25年中增长了3,417.6亿美元，而TSLA的收入增长为407.3亿美元。TSLA通过TTM产生了69.3亿美元的自由现金流，而Mr由于过去3.25年FCF增长71.5亿美元，市场对TSLA的评级为142.52倍。FB的FCF市盈率为15.19倍，而在此期间FCF增长了234.5亿美元，是TSLA在TTM中产生的3倍多。</blockquote>With FB trading at 15.19x FCF, GOOGL at 23.42x FCF, and AAPL at 25.4x FCF, it&#39;s hard to justify any number above 20x for TSLA. I think a 21x FCF multiple is generous and that places TSLA at a market cap of $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion.<blockquote>FB的交易价格为15.19倍FCF，GOOGL为23.42倍FCF，AAPL为25.4倍FCF，因此很难证明TSLA的任何高于20倍的数字是合理的。我认为21倍的自由现金流倍数是慷慨的，这使得TSLA的市值达到1,454.3亿美元，比目前9,869.2亿美元的市值下降了-85.26%。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Overvalued By 85.26% And Not A Technology Company<blockquote>特斯拉：高估85.26%不是科技公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Overvalued By 85.26% And Not A Technology Company<blockquote>特斯拉：高估85.26%不是科技公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2022-05-08 11:30\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>Summary<blockquote><html><head></head><body>总结</body></html></blockquote><ul><li>Make no mistake, Tesla is a phenomenal company that has accomplished the unthinkable as it broke through extreme barriers of entry to disrupt the auto industry.</li><li>Just because Tesla is a successful company that is causing automotive titans to change from combustible engines to EVs doesn&#39;t mean Tesla&#39;s stock is a good investment today.</li><li>100% of gross profit and net income is generated from the automotive sector as Tesla&#39;s other businesses lose money, making them an automobile manufacturing company, not a technology company.</li><li>I compared Tesla&#39;s metrics to the auto industry and big tech and the results are the same, Tesla&#39;s valuation is egregious.</li></ul>It&#39;s rare to find companies that have cult-like followings with loyalists willing to pay any price for its stock. The debate regarding Tesla, Inc.&#39;s (NASDAQ:TSLA) valuation continues to be a topic of conversation between the bulls and the bears. Oneside argues that TSLA&#39;s financial growth and future prospects, including FSD, insurance, and robotaxis, justify the current $902.12 billion valuations, while others argue that the current financials and cult-like following have led to a massive overvaluation in TSLA&#39;s stock.<blockquote><ul><li>毫无疑问，特斯拉是一家非凡的公司，它突破了极端的进入壁垒，颠覆了汽车行业，取得了不可思议的成就。</li><li>仅仅因为特斯拉是一家成功的公司，正在推动汽车巨头从内燃机转向电动汽车，并不意味着特斯拉的股票今天是一项不错的投资。</li><li>由于特斯拉的其他业务都在亏损，100%的毛利润和净利润都来自汽车部门，这使他们成为一家汽车制造公司，而不是一家科技公司。</li><li>我将特斯拉的指标与汽车行业和大型科技公司进行了比较，结果是相同的，特斯拉的估值令人震惊。</li></ul>很少有公司拥有狂热的追随者，忠诚者愿意为其股票支付任何价格。关于特斯拉公司（纳斯达克：TSLA）估值的争论仍然是多头和空头之间的话题。Oneside认为，TSLA的财务增长和未来前景（包括FSD、保险和机器人出租车）证明了当前9021.2亿美元的估值是合理的，而其他人则认为，当前的财务状况和狂热的追随者导致了TSLA股票的大幅高估。</blockquote>I tip my hat to Elon Musk, as his accomplishments are second to none. When others called him crazy, Mr. Musk chose one of the hardest industries to compete in, started TSLA from the ground up, went to battle against the auto manufacturers, and succeeded. TSLA is one of the rare success stories that has truly shaped an industry, and the barriers of entry that were overcome are astonishing. TSLA didn&#39;t have the capital, manufacturing, credibility, or the infrastructure that its competitors did, yet they found a way to succeed. If the odds weren&#39;t enough which TSLA faced, they accomplished their goals without a combustible engine and pioneered an entirely new sector within the automotive industry.<blockquote>我向埃隆·马斯克致敬，因为他的成就是首屈一指的。当别人说他疯了时，马斯克先生选择了一个最难竞争的行业，白手起家创办了特斯拉，与汽车制造商作战，并取得了成功。特斯拉是真正塑造了一个行业的罕见成功故事之一，所克服的进入壁垒令人惊讶。特斯拉不像竞争对手那样拥有资本、制造、信誉或基础设施，但他们找到了成功的方法。如果特斯拉面临的机会还不够，他们在没有燃油发动机的情况下实现了目标，并在汽车行业开创了一个全新的领域。</blockquote>Just because TSLA is a great company, it doesn&#39;t mean TSLA has a great stock, or it isn&#39;t overvalued. I am not bearish on TSLA the company because I believe they still have a long runway of growth ahead of them, but I am bearish on the valuation. Prior to leaving a comment on why I am wrong, please read the article and think about the metrics I am citing; then, I will happily discuss any viewpoints about the analysis.<blockquote>仅仅因为特斯拉是一家伟大的公司，并不意味着特斯拉有一只伟大的股票，或者它没有被高估。我并不看跌特斯拉这家公司，因为我相信他们还有很长的增长之路，但我看跌估值。在评论我为什么错之前，请阅读这篇文章并思考我引用的指标；然后，我会很乐意讨论任何关于分析的观点。</blockquote>Tesla Vs. The World In The Automotive Sector<blockquote>特斯拉与汽车领域的世界</blockquote>It feels like TSLA vs. the world whenever TSLA is discussed. Discussing who makes a better automobile is a matter of opinion, and everyone is correct because it&#39;s their opinion. If person A thinks TSLA makes the best car and person B thinks Mercedes Benz makes the best car, they are both correct. Debating over this is pointless, so let&#39;s look at the raw numbers.<blockquote>每当讨论特斯拉时，感觉就像特斯拉对抗世界。讨论谁制造的汽车更好是见仁见智的问题，每个人都是正确的，因为这是他们的观点。如果A人认为特斯拉制造的汽车最好，B人认为奔驰制造的汽车最好，那么他们都是正确的。争论这个是没有意义的，所以让我们看看原始数据。</blockquote>TSLA has a larger market cap than the combination ofToyota(TM),Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY),Daimler(OTCPK:DDAIF),BMW(OTCPK:BMWYY),General Motors(GM),Ford(F),Honda(HMC),Ferrari(RACE),Nissan(OTCPK:NSANY),Subaru(OTCPK:FUJHY),Volvo(OTCPK:VOLAF), andMazda(OTCPK:MZDAY). TSLA&#39;s market cap is currently $986.92 billion, while the combination of these 12 companies is $777.41 billion.<blockquote>特斯拉的市值比丰田(TM)、大众(OTCPK：VWAGY)、戴姆勒(OTCPK：DDAIF)、宝马(OTCPK：BMWYY)、通用汽车(GM)、福特(F)、本田(HMC)的总和还要大)、法拉利(RACE)、日产(OTCPK：NSANY)、斯巴鲁(OTCPK：FUJHY)、沃尔沃(OTCPK：VOLAF)和马自达(OTCPK：MZDAY)。特斯拉的市值目前为9869.2亿美元，而这12家公司的市值总和为7774.1亿美元。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff930d2442bf282c1bd880cca408eb94\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛</blockquote>The P/S ratio is often cited to justify the valuation. The combination of TM, VWAGY, DDAIF, BMWYY, GM, F, HMC, RACE, NSANY, FUJHY, VOLAF, and MZDAY has generated $1.38 trillion in revenue over the TTM, putting their P/S at 0.56, while TSLA has generated $62.19 billion in revenue and has a 15.87 P/S.<blockquote>市盈率经常被用来证明估值的合理性。TM、VWAGY、DDAIF、BMWYY、GM、F、HMC、RACE、NSANY、FUJHY、VOLAF和MZDAY的组合在TTM上创造了1.38万亿美元的收入，市盈率为0.56，而TSLA则创造了621.9亿美元的收入，市盈率为15.87。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9b9661fde232925a758c38fd2e93f36\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛，寻求阿尔法</blockquote>As a combined entity, these 12 companies have generated $118.29 billion in net income, while TSLA has produced $8.4 billion.<blockquote>作为一个合并后的实体，这12家公司创造了1182.9亿美元的净利润，而TSLA创造了84亿美元。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d25806eb839eb9ca2b4ef3c24218048c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛，寻求阿尔法</blockquote>TSLA is a great company, but its current valuation has become overly inflated. TSLA&#39;s market cap is $209.52 billion larger than these 12 auto manufacturers, yet the combination of the 12 auto manufacturers generates $1.32 trillion more in revenue and $109.89 billion more in net income.<blockquote>特斯拉是一家伟大的公司，但其目前的估值已经过度膨胀。特斯拉的市值比这12家汽车制造商高出2095.2亿美元，但这12家汽车制造商加起来的收入多出1.32万亿美元，净利润多出1098.9亿美元。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1b686de4009ca733ff9651ce0d9fcaf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛，寻求阿尔法</blockquote>Looking at the market caps, one would assume that TSLA has a dominant majority over its competitors in auto sales within the U.S. According to the2021 data, TSLA sold 2.02% of all vehicles in the U.S. TSLA&#39;s market cap reflects a level of dominance that is non-existent.<blockquote>从市值来看，人们会认为特斯拉在美国的汽车销量中比竞争对手占据主导地位。根据2021年的数据，TSLA的销量占美国所有汽车的2.02%。TSLA的市值反映了不存在的主导地位。</blockquote>Realistically, TSLA will have a hard time disrupting the sector further due to the price point of their vehicles. The reality is that, unless TSLA can sell a car that rivals a Honda or Toyota, doubling its market share is going to be a daunting task. It&#39;s just math. TSLA doesn&#39;t have a product for the masses, and while it may continue to grow in the luxury segment, the amount of growth that can be achieved is limited due to the pricing power of the consumer.<blockquote>实际上，由于其车辆的价格，特斯拉将很难进一步扰乱该行业。现实情况是，除非特斯拉能够销售出与本田或丰田相媲美的汽车，否则将其市场份额翻一番将是一项艰巨的任务。只是数学而已。特斯拉没有面向大众的产品，虽然它在豪华车领域可能会继续增长，但由于消费者的定价能力，所能实现的增长是有限的。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/442ffe151dd83bc524785857925f9797\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>www.goodcarbadcar.net<blockquote>www.goodcarbadcar.net</blockquote>Tesla Isn&#39;t A Technology Company And Shouldn&#39;t Be Valued As One<blockquote>特斯拉不是一家科技公司，也不应该被视为一家科技公司</blockquote>The valuation rebuttal has always been that TSLA isn&#39;t an automobile company, rather, it&#39;s a technology company.<blockquote>估值反驳一直是特斯拉不是一家汽车公司，而是一家科技公司。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbc9ccb2cb8a0e7d40804db24e183214\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Tesla<blockquote>特斯拉</blockquote>Page 23 ofTSLA&#39;s Q1 2022 slide deck from their earnings call is their statement of operations. Once again, 100% of TSLA&#39;s gross profit and net income are derived from automobiles. Energy generation and storage lose money as it generates $616 million in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $688 million. The same goes for Services and others, as this segment generates $1.279 billion in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $1.286 billion. This doesn&#39;t even factor in operating expenses.<blockquote>特斯拉2022年第一季度收益看涨期权幻灯片的第23页是他们的运营报表。再次，TSLA的毛利润和净利润100%来自汽车。能源生产和存储亏损，因为它产生了6.16亿美元的收入，而该收入的成本为6.88亿美元。服务和其他部门也是如此，因为该部门产生了12.79亿美元的收入，而该收入的成本为12.86亿美元。这甚至没有考虑运营费用。</blockquote>TSLA manufacturers state of the art automobiles, but this doesn&#39;t classify them as a technology company, nor should they be classified as one. Since this is always the rebuttal and technology companies trade at larger earnings multiples, I will compare TSLA to Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), and Meta Platforms (FB) and illustrate why TSLA is still drastically overvalued if the market was still to provide it with a tech multiple.<blockquote>TSLA制造最先进的汽车，但这并不能将它们归类为科技公司，也不应该归类为科技公司。由于这始终是反驳，而且科技公司的市盈率较高，我将将TSLA与苹果(AAPL)、微软(MSFT)、亚马逊(AMZN)、Alphabet(GOOG)(GOOGL)和Meta Platforms进行比较(FB)并说明如果市场仍然为特斯拉提供科技市盈率，为什么特斯拉仍然被严重高估。</blockquote>Prior to the comparisons, I want to frame the analysis by providing each company&#39;s market cap:<blockquote>在进行比较之前，我想通过提供每家公司的市值来构建分析：</blockquote><ul><li>AAPL $2.69 Trillion</li><li>MSFT $2.17 Trillion</li><li>GOOGL $1.62 Trillion</li><li>AMZN $1.28 Trillion</li><li>TSLA $986.92 Billion</li><li>FB $604.62 Billion</li></ul>I am going to start with growth because this is always the key metric bulls point out. Since the close of 2018, which is 3.25 fiscal years, TSLA has grown its revenue from $21.46 billion to $62.19 billion.<blockquote><ul><li>苹果公司2.69万亿美元</li><li>MSFT 2.17万亿美元</li><li>GOOGL 1.62万亿美元</li><li>AMZN 1.28万亿美元</li><li>特斯拉9869.2亿美元</li><li>FB 6046.2亿美元</li></ul>我将从增长开始，因为这始终是多头指出的关键指标。自2018年底（即3.25财年）以来，TSLA的收入已从214.6亿美元增长至621.9亿美元。</blockquote>This is absolutely remarkable, but it doesn&#39;t place TSLA in the upper epsilon of technology companies. Over the same period, FB grew its revenue by $63.83 billion, which is more than what TSLA produced in the TTM. FB grew its revenue by more than what TSLA produces and generates just about double the revenue ($119.67 billion), yet TSLA has a larger market cap. For everyone who has used growth as their investment premise, FB having a market cap that&#39;s $382.30 less than TSLA nullifies that aspect of the bull thesis. AMZN&#39;s market cap is only $294.33 billion larger than TSLA, yet they generated $477.75 billion in revenue and grew their revenue by $341.76 billion in this period. Using revenue growth for TSLA doesn&#39;t support the valuation.<blockquote>这绝对是了不起的，但它并没有将特斯拉置于科技公司的上位。同期，FB的收入增长了638.3亿美元，超过了TSLA在TTM中的收入。FB的收入增长超过了TSLA的收入，几乎是其收入的两倍（1196.7亿美元），但TSLA的市值更大。对于每个以增长为投资前提的人来说，FB的市值比TSLA低382.30美元，这使得牛市论点的这一方面无效。AMZN的市值仅比TSLA大2943.3亿美元，但他们创造了4777.5亿美元的收入，在此期间收入增长了3417.6亿美元。使用TSLA的收入增长并不支持估值。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c0fbd4eb93f026c4575ee8f77f53e4b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛，寻求阿尔法</blockquote>Next, I will turn to profits because, at the end of the day, businesses are in the business of making money. Once again, TSLA has done a fantastic job of monetizing its business and, in 3.25 short years, has gone from losing -$976 million to make $8.4 billion in the TTM for an increase of $9.38 billion. FB has produced $37.34 billion in profit in the TTM, and its net income grew by $15.23 billion over this period. Using growth doesn&#39;t support the valuation when FB has a market cap that&#39;s $382.30 less than TSLA and grew its profits in this period by almost double what TSLA has generated in the TTM.<blockquote>接下来，我将转向利润，因为归根结底，企业是在赚钱。TSLA再次在业务货币化方面做得非常出色，在短短3.25年内，TTM从亏损9.76亿美元增至84亿美元，增加了93.8亿美元。FB在TTM创造了373.4亿美元的利润，净利润在此期间增长了152.3亿美元。当FB的市值比TSLA低382.30美元，并且在此期间的利润增长几乎是TSLA在TTM中的两倍时，使用增长并不能支持估值。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9716477607711ee0b6d4f77eb24c890\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛，寻求阿尔法</blockquote>The new metric bulls are using in their thesis is TSLA&#39;s free cash flow (FCF). Once again, TSLA has done an excellent job, going from -$221 million of FCF in 2018 to $6.93 billion of FCF in the TTM. Many companies would love to grow their annual FCF by $7.15 billion over a 3.25-year period, and this should be applauded.<blockquote>多头在论文中使用的新指标是特斯拉的自由现金流（FCF）。TSLA再次表现出色，从2018年的-2.21亿美元自由现金流增至TTM的69.3亿美元自由现金流。许多公司希望在3.25年内将其年度自由现金流增加71.5亿美元，这应该受到赞扬。</blockquote>Let&#39;s look at FB once again, since TSLA&#39;s valuation isn&#39;t based on its core segment as an automobile manufacturer. FB has grown its FCF over the previous 3.25 years by $23.45 billion, more than 3x TSLA&#39;s growth, and has generated $39.81 billion of FCF in the TTM. FB generated roughly 5.75x more FCF than TSLA and grew its FCF by more than 3x what TSLA produces, yet FB has a market cap that&#39;s almost $400 billion less than TSLA. Growth within the financials does not support TSLA&#39;s valuation, which is a breath away from $1 trillion.<blockquote>让我们再次看看FB，因为TSLA的估值并不是基于其作为汽车制造商的核心细分市场。FB的FCF在过去3.25年中增长了234.5亿美元，是TSLA增长的3倍多，并在TTM中产生了398.1亿美元的FCF。FB产生的自由现金流大约是TSLA的5.75倍，其自由现金流增长是TSLA的3倍多，但FB的市值比TSLA少近4000亿美元。金融界的增长并不能支撑TSLA的估值，该估值距离1万亿美元仅一步之遥。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/902a7074eda9e8f2f2765e0833423d2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛，寻求阿尔法</blockquote>Today you&#39;re paying a 113.81 P/E for TSLA. Paying a larger multiple for a company that&#39;s growing its earnings quickly is normal, but TSLA isn&#39;t growing by larger amounts than FB, and FB trades at a 16.66 P/E. I have seen TSLA bulls justify the P/E because of TSLA&#39;s growth factor, but this doesn&#39;t hold up when FB has grown by larger amounts from larger starting positions and has a P/E that&#39;s a fraction of TSLA. Look at AAPL, which is the largest company in the world. AAPL has grown its net income by $56.25 billion and its FCF by $52.3 billion over the past 3.25 years, and its P/E is 26.78. People are blindly paying any multiple the market places on TSLA.<blockquote>今天，您为TSLA支付的市盈率为113.81。为一家盈利快速增长的公司支付更高的市盈率是正常的，但TSLA的增长幅度并不比FB大，FB的市盈率为16.66。我见过TSLA多头因为TSLA的增长因素而证明市盈率是合理的，但当FB从较大的起始头寸增长了更多并且市盈率只是TSLA的一小部分时，这就不成立了。看看AAPL，它是世界上最大的公司。过去3.25年，AAPL的净利润增长了562.5亿美元，自由现金流增长了523亿美元，市盈率为26.78。人们盲目地支付特斯拉市场份额的任何倍数。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75168f6e39ced721cf0c53d78481a983\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TSLA is trading at a 15.38 P/S. The justification for this multiple is difficult to defend while AMZN trades at a P/S of 11.31. AMZN&#39;s revenue grew by $341.76 billion over the past 3.25 years while TSLA grew their revenue by $40.73 billion. Instead of an absolute basis, looking at this from a percentage aspect, TSLA grew its revenue by 189.78%, while AMZN&#39;s grew by 251.32%. The P/S ratio is not a supporting valuation metric as TSLA is trading at a larger multiple than AMZN yet produced $301.03 billion less in revenue growth compared to AMZN. At the very least, TSLA should trade at a lower P/S multiple than AMZN considering their revenue growth was a fraction of AMZN&#39;s.<blockquote>TSLA的交易价格为15.38 P/S。当AMZN的市盈率为11.31时，这一市盈率的合理性很难辩护。过去3.25年，AMZN的收入增长了3417.6亿美元，而TSLA的收入增长了407.3亿美元。从百分比来看，特斯拉的收入增长了189.78%，而亚马逊的收入增长了251.32%，而不是绝对基数。市盈率并不是一个支持性的估值指标，因为TSLA的市盈率高于AMZN，但与AMZN相比，其收入增长却少了3010.3亿美元。至少，考虑到特斯拉的收入增长只是亚马逊的一小部分，特斯拉的市盈率应该低于亚马逊。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aad00a6c490808962705a1a2dae45cfe\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TSLA has done an excellent job monetizing its revenue, delivering exceptional margins, and generating FCF. Now that TSLA is generating billions in FCF, it&#39;s been inserted into the bull thesis. FCF is a measure of profitability that excludes the non-cash expenses of the income statement and includes spending on equipment and assets as well as changes in working capital from the balance sheet. FCF could be the most underrated and most important financial metric to look at, as this is the pool of capital that companies can utilize to repay debt, pay dividends, buy back shares, make acquisitions, or reinvest in the business.<blockquote>特斯拉在收入货币化、提供卓越的利润率和产生自由现金流方面做得非常出色。现在，特斯拉正在产生数十亿美元的自由现金流，它已被纳入牛市论点。FCF是衡量盈利能力的指标，不包括损益表中的非现金费用，包括设备和资产支出以及资产负债表中营运资本的变化。自由现金流可能是最被低估和最重要的财务指标，因为这是公司可以用来偿还债务、支付股息、回购股票、进行收购或对业务进行再投资的资本池。</blockquote>Every investment is the present value of all future cash flow. This is why investors look at the price to FCF valuation. Investors want to pay the cheapest multiple for a company&#39;s FCF. Today, you&#39;re paying 142.52x TSLA&#39;s FCF. Going back to the FCF section, TSLA grew its FCF by $7.15 billion over the past 3.25 years. FB generated $23.45 billion of FCF in this period, which is 3x the amount TSLA grew, yet FB is trading at a 15.19x multiple on price to FCF.<blockquote>每一项投资都是未来所有现金流的现值。这就是为什么投资者关注自由现金流估值的价格。投资者希望为公司的自由现金流支付最便宜的倍数。今天，您支付的是TSLA自由现金流的142.52倍。回到自由现金流部分，TSLA的自由现金流在过去3.25年中增长了71.5亿美元。FB在此期间产生了234.5亿美元的FCF，是TSLA增长金额的3倍，但FB的市盈率是FCF的15.19倍。</blockquote>Why on earth would you want to pay 142.52x for TSLA&#39;s FCF when you could pay 15.19x for FB, which is growing their FCF by more than 3x the amount that TSLA is growing by? How about AAPL? AAPL grew its FCF by $52.3 billion and trades at a 25.4x price to FCF. If I exclude FB for a moment, should TSLA trade at a larger FCF multiple than GOOGL, which has grown its FCF by $46.15 billion over the past 3.25 years? My answer is no because there is no guarantee that TSLA will ever generate $46.15 billion in annual FCF, let alone the $68.99 billion in FCF that GOOGL generates.<blockquote>当您可以为FB支付15.19倍的FCF时，您究竟为什么要为TSLA的FCF支付142.52倍的费用，而FB的FCF增长速度是TSLA增长速度的3倍以上？苹果公司怎么样？AAPL的自由现金流增加了523亿美元，交易价格是自由现金流的25.4倍。如果我暂时排除FB，TSLA的自由现金流倍数是否应该高于GOOGL，后者的自由现金流在过去3.25年中增长了461.5亿美元？我的答案是否定的，因为无法保证特斯拉每年能够产生461.5亿美元的自由现金流，更不用说GOOGL产生的689.9亿美元的自由现金流了。</blockquote>So what is a fair price to FCF multiple for TSLA? I don&#39;t believe TSLA has earned the right to trade at the same multiples as the rest of big tech considering the levels of FCF they produce. If I stick with the methodology that FB is egregiously undervalued, then TSLA should trade above 15.19x its FCF but lower than the 23.42x multiple GOOGL trades at.<blockquote>那么TSLA的FCF倍数的合理价格是多少呢？考虑到它们产生的自由现金流水平，我认为特斯拉没有赢得与其他大型科技公司相同倍数的交易权利。如果我坚持FB被严重低估的方法论，那么TSLA的交易价格应该高于其FCF的15.19倍，但低于GOOGL交易价格的23.42倍。</blockquote>I don&#39;t want to be overly bearish, so I will place a 21x multiple on TSLA&#39;s FCF, which is more than fair considering big tech metrics. A 21x multiple on TSLA&#39;s FCF puts its market cap at $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion. It&#39;s just math, and if TSLA is going to be valued as a technology company, it needs to be compared to the technology companies with similar market caps.<blockquote>我不想过于悲观，因此我将TSLA的自由现金流设定为21倍，考虑到大型科技指标，这是非常公平的。TSLA自由现金流的21倍使其市值达到1454.3亿美元，较目前9869.2亿美元的市值下降了-85.26%。这只是数学问题，如果特斯拉要作为一家科技公司进行估值，就需要与市值相似的科技公司进行比较。</blockquote>At the very least, there isn&#39;t a single reason why TSLA&#39;s market cap is larger than FB&#39;s. There isn&#39;t a single metric that TSLA beats FB in. Based on FB&#39;s valuation, if TSLA traded at the same FCF multiple, it would have a market cap of $105.19 billion.<blockquote>至少，TSLA的市值大于FB的原因并不是单一的。TSLA没有一个指标能击败FB。根据FB的估值，如果TSLA以相同的FCF倍数交易，其市值将达到1051.9亿美元。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b81a61d60d9ec098276569cc4a501da0\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TSLA has a gross profit margin of 27.1% ($16.85b / $62.19b) and a profit margin of 13.51% ($8.4b / $62.19b). FB has a gross profit margin of 80.34% ($96.14b / $119.67b) and a profit margin of 31.2% ($37.34b / $119.67b). FB has much wider margins and is growing its revenue by larger amounts. This reinforces my methodology as to why TSLA is grossly overvalued. GOOGL has a gross profit margin of 56.93% ($153.9b / $270.33b) and a profit margin of 27.57% ($74.54b / $270.33b).<blockquote>TSLA的毛利率为27.1%（$16.85 B/$62.19 B），利润率为13.51%（$8.4 B/$62.19 B）。FB的毛利率为80.34%（$96.14 B/$119.67 B），利润率为31.2%（$37.34 B/$119.67 B）。FB的利润率要高得多，收入也在大幅增长。这强化了我关于为什么特斯拉被严重高估的方法论。GOOGL的毛利率为56.93%（$153.9 B/$270.33 B），利润率为27.57%（$745.4 B/$270.33 B）。</blockquote>The chances are incredibly slim that TSLA can double its profit margin to be within striking distance of GOOGL&#39;s. TSLA should not trade at a larger FCF, P/E, or P/S multiple than FB or GOOGL. While the market would indicate that I am wrong today, eventually, the hype will wear off, and TSLA will trade at a realistic valuation.<blockquote>特斯拉将利润率提高一倍，与GOOGL相提并论的可能性微乎其微。TSLA的自由现金流、市盈率或市盈率不应高于FB或GOOGL。虽然市场今天会表明我错了，但最终，炒作将会消退，特斯拉将以现实的估值进行交易。</blockquote>TSLA&#39;s Future Catalysts Have A Long Way To Go Before Impacting Its Bottom Line<blockquote>特斯拉未来的催化剂在影响其利润之前还有很长的路要走</blockquote>There are three main catalysts people discuss, which include insurance, robotaxis, and FSD.TSLA offers insurance using real-time driving behavior. This is currently available to all Model S, Model 3, Model X, and Model Y owners. The catch is that it&#39;s only available in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Ohio, Oregon, Texas, and Virginia as of now.<blockquote>人们讨论的催化剂主要有三个，包括保险、机器人出租车和FSD.TSLA使用实时驾驶行为提供保险。目前，所有Model S、Model 3、Model X和Model Y车主均可使用该功能。问题是，目前它仅在亚利桑那州、科罗拉多州、伊利诺伊州、俄亥俄州、俄勒冈州、德克萨斯州和弗吉尼亚州可用。</blockquote>TSLA uses a safety rating score to determine the monthly premium for its vehicles. At the largest premium of $130/mo, this would be $1,560 per year. If TSLA converted 100% of their U.S sales in 2021 as an insurance customer, which I think could be possible if TSLA insurance was available in every state, it would have generated $471.12 million in revenue.<blockquote>特斯拉使用安全评级分数来确定其车辆的每月保费。以130美元/月的最大保费计算，每年为1,560美元。如果TSLA在2021年将其在美国的销售额100%转化为保险客户（我认为如果每个州都提供TSLA保险，这是可能的），那么它将产生4.7112亿美元的收入。</blockquote>We have no idea what the margins would have been, but if the margin was 50%, it would have been an additional $235.56 million in net income in 2021. While this is nothing to sneeze at, an additional $235.56 million in net income hardly moves the needle. This could be a $1 billion top-line revenue segment in the future, but with availability in only 7 states, insurance&#39;s $1 billion revenue mark is a long way away.<blockquote>我们不知道利润率是多少，但如果利润率为50%，2021年净利润将增加2.3556亿美元。虽然这不容小觑，但额外的2.3556亿美元净利润几乎没有什么影响。这可能是未来10亿美元的营收部分，但由于仅在7个州提供服务，保险业10亿美元的收入大关还有很长的路要走。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e86de6232b9abf7cee46a9607eb09741\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Tesla<blockquote>特斯拉</blockquote>Next,FSD, for which TSLA has created two subscription models, a $99/mo price point and a $199/mo price point. The problem with FSD is that it doesn&#39;t make the vehicle fully autonomous, and you still need a driver to be attentive and alert. While I am not arguing that TSLA&#39;s FSD isn&#39;t leaps and bounds ahead of the competition, the problem is that it&#39;s not exactly a self-driving car.<blockquote>接下来是FSD，TSLA为其创建了两种订阅模式，99美元/月的价格点和199美元/月的价格点。FSD的问题在于，它不能使车辆完全自动驾驶，您仍然需要驾驶员保持专注和警觉。虽然我并不是说TSLA的FSD没有在竞争中遥遥领先，但问题是它并不完全是自动驾驶汽车。</blockquote>The questions around legality and where you can use it pop into my head, and how many of TSLA&#39;s drivers opt for this upgrade. Until there is clear legislation and the technology advances to where vehicles can fully drive a person from point A to B while that person takes a nap or reads, I have a hard time believing enough TSLA owners will spend the extra $199/mo on FSD. If there is somewhere where TSLA produces the numbers about how many owners opt for this package, please let me know, and I will crunch the numbers.<blockquote>有关合法性和在哪里可以使用它的问题突然出现在我的脑海中，以及有多少TSLA的司机选择了这种升级。在有明确的立法和技术进步到车辆可以在一个人午睡或阅读的时候完全驾驶一个人从A点到B点之前，我很难相信有足够多的TSLA车主会在FSD上额外花费199美元/月。如果TSLA在某个地方提供了有关有多少车主选择此套餐的数据，请让我知道，我将处理这些数据。</blockquote>Which Features Come With My Subscription?<blockquote>我的订阅附带哪些功能？</blockquote>The FSD capability features you receive are based on your configuration and location. Not all features are available in all markets, and features are subject to change.Learn more about Autopilot and Full Self-Driving capability features.Note: These features are designed to become more capable over time; however the currently enabled features do not make the vehicle autonomous. The currently enabled features require a fully attentive driver, who has their hands on the wheel and is prepared to take over at any moment.The last catalyst is Robotaxis which many have commented on in my articles before. We&#39;re so far off on Robotaxis that this can&#39;t be considered in TSLA&#39;s upcoming revenue. I would think major legislation would be needed for Robotaxis to exist, and there is no telling how many years away we are from this.<blockquote>您收到的FSD功能基于您的配置和位置。并非所有功能在所有市场都可用，并且功能可能会发生变化。了解有关Autopilot和全自动驾驶功能的更多信息。注意：这些功能旨在随着时间的推移变得更强大；然而，当前启用的特征并不能使车辆自主。目前启用的功能需要一个全神贯注的驾驶员，他的手放在方向盘上，随时准备接管。最后一个催化剂是机器人出租车，许多人在我之前的文章中评论过。我们在机器人出租车方面的差距太大，以至于不能在特斯拉即将到来的收入中考虑这一点。我认为机器人出租车的存在需要重大立法，而且不知道我们还需要多少年。</blockquote>Also, what is the percentage of TSLA owners that would actually allow their vehicle to be used as a Robotaxi? Depending on what the profitability is, I can see people buying TSLAs to enroll them in this program, but, once again, we need to see the economics behind it. I know I am just one opinion, but I would never enroll one of my cars into a robotaxi program because I don&#39;t want other people that I don&#39;t know in my car. I would think there are many others that have similar viewpoints.<blockquote>另外，真正允许他们的车辆用作机器人出租车的TSLA车主比例是多少？根据盈利能力，我可以看到人们购买特斯拉来加入这个计划，但是，我们需要再次看到其背后的经济学。我知道我只是一种观点，但我永远不会让我的一辆车加入机器人出租车计划，因为我不想让我不认识的其他人在我的车里。我想还有很多人有类似的观点。</blockquote>The real upcoming catalysts are future revenue growth and entering the Chinese market. In 2021 TSLA grew its YoY revenue by 70.67%, and their off to a great start after Q1 2022. Only time will tell what type of growth rate TSLA can maintain, but too many people are assuming that TSLA will obliterate the competition. Over the next several years, we could see TSLA&#39;s growth rate become significantly reduced as more luxury operators put EVs on the road.<blockquote>真正即将到来的催化剂是未来的收入增长和进入中国市场。2021年，特斯拉收入同比增长70.67%，在2022年第一季度之后取得了良好的开端。只有时间才能证明特斯拉能够保持什么样的增长率，但太多人认为特斯拉将消灭竞争对手。在接下来的几年里，随着更多的豪华运营商将电动汽车上路，我们可能会看到特斯拉的增长率大幅下降。</blockquote>At TSLA&#39;s current margins, they would need to increase their revenue by 444.55% to $276.47 billion to produce the same amount of net income ($37.34b) that FB produces today at their current 13.51% profit margin. Maybe TSLA can get there in the future, but why should TSLA be valued at almost $1 trillion today, considering not a single metric of theirs is similar to FB or GOOGL, and TSLA&#39;s growth across any of the sectors isn&#39;t larger than FB or GOOGL?<blockquote>按照TSLA目前的利润率，他们需要将收入增加444.55%，达到2,764.7亿美元，才能产生与FB目前13.51%利润率相同的净利润($37.34 B)。也许TSLA未来可以实现这一目标，但为什么TSLA今天的估值应该接近1万亿美元，因为他们没有一个指标与FB或GOOGL相似，而且TSLA在任何领域的增长都不比FB或GOOGL大？</blockquote>Tesla Continues To Dilute Shareholders, And Almost No Shareholders Care<blockquote>特斯拉不断稀释股东，几乎没有股东关心</blockquote>Dilution kills shareholder value. Look, I am a shareholder of TSLA, and I hate that my shares continue to be diluted. These numbers are split-adjusted that I am using. Over the past decade,TSLA has diluted its shares by 80.93%. This is horrible compared to big tech, yet investors can&#39;t buy enough TSLA shares. TSLA finished 2012 with 572.6 million shares and, as of its last filing, had increased its outstanding shares to 1.036 billion shares.<blockquote>稀释会扼杀股东价值。听着，我是特斯拉的股东，我讨厌我的股份继续被稀释。这些数字是我正在使用的分割调整的。过去十年，TSLA的股份稀释了80.93%。与大型科技公司相比，这是可怕的，但投资者无法购买足够的特斯拉股票。截至2012年底，特斯拉持有5.726亿股股票，截至上次提交文件，其流通股已增至10.36亿股。</blockquote>This is the equivalent of me taking a pizza, and instead of giving you a slice, cutting another 6.5 slices, then giving you one. The pizza represents TSLA, the company, and they basically turned an 8-slice pie into a 14.5-slice pie, reducing shareholder&#39;s ownership and the amount of equity, revenue, and EPS our shares represent.<blockquote>这相当于我拿了一个披萨，不是给你一片，而是再切6.5片，然后给你一片。披萨代表TSLA公司，他们基本上将8片馅饼变成了14.5片馅饼，减少了股东所有权以及我们的股票所代表的股本、收入和每股收益。</blockquote>If you want to see what a true shepherd of shareholder value looks like, turn to AAPL. In 2012 AAPL had 26.3 billion shares outstanding. Over the past decade, AAPL has repurchased 10.09 billion shares, reducing its outstanding shares by 38.37%. Every quarter, AAPL is buying back shares and increasing the ownership its shares represent. TSLA, on the other hand, continues to dilute shareholders by increasing shares YOY.<blockquote>如果您想了解真正的股东价值牧羊人是什么样子，请转向AAPL。2012年，AAPL拥有263亿股已发行股票。过去十年，AAPL回购了100.9亿股，流通股减少了38.37%。每个季度，苹果公司都会回购股票并增加其股票所代表的所有权。另一方面，特斯拉继续通过同比增持来稀释股东权益。</blockquote>I Could Be Completely Wrong, And Tesla Could Continue Growing At These Rates<blockquote>我可能完全错了，特斯拉可能会继续以这样的速度增长</blockquote>TSLA&#39;s vehicle deliveries continue to outpace its growing production. YoY TSLA&#39;s deliveries increased by 68% in Q1, adding 125,171 delivered vehicles to its customers. TSLA just began Model Y deliveries from the Austin facility, and production at the Gigafactory in Berlin started in March of 2022. TSLA&#39;s Shanghai facility had strong production rates prior to the spike in COVID that resulted in temporary shutdowns. TSLA isn&#39;t just focusing on the U.S, they have Europe and China in their sights.<blockquote>特斯拉的汽车交付量继续超过其产量增长速度。特斯拉第一季度的交付量同比增长68%，向客户交付了125,171辆汽车。TSLA刚刚开始从奥斯汀工厂交付Model Y，柏林超级工厂的生产于2022年3月开始。在新冠疫情激增导致暂时关闭之前，特斯拉上海工厂的生产率强劲。特斯拉不仅仅关注美国，他们还将目光投向了欧洲和中国。</blockquote>EVs accounted for 488,000 sales in the U.S for 2021, and the previous projection was that EVs would account for 670,000 units sold in 2022. Oil has hovered around $100 per barrel and could render the previous projections of 37% increased EV sales domestically for 2022 conservative. TSLA is in a prime position to capitalize on this trend. In 2021 TSLA vehicles accounted for 61.89% of EVs sold in the U.S (301,998 / 488,000).<blockquote>2021年，电动汽车在美国的销量为488,000辆，此前的预测是2022年电动汽车的销量将达到670,000辆。油价一直徘徊在每桶100美元左右，这可能会使之前对2022年国内电动汽车销量增长37%的预测变得保守。特斯拉处于利用这一趋势的有利位置。2021年，TSLA汽车占美国电动汽车销量的61.89%（301,998/488,000辆）。</blockquote>Hypothetically, if the previous projection of 670,000 EV sales for 2022 is accurate and TSLA maintains its current margin, they would sell 414,628 vehicles throughout the U.S in 2022. If gas prices do alter the decision-making process when deciding between a combustible engine or an EV, then TSLA could continue surprising the market with QoQ earnings beats.<blockquote>假设，如果之前对2022年电动汽车销量670,000辆的预测是准确的，并且TSLA保持目前的利润率，那么2022年他们将在美国销售414,628辆汽车。如果汽油价格确实改变了在决定燃油发动机还是电动汽车时的决策过程，那么特斯拉可能会继续以季度盈利超出市场预期。</blockquote>The U.S has a national goal of reaching 50% of domestic auto sales coming from EVs. In 2021, EVs accounted for 3.26% of total sales in the U.S auto market. Based on U.S auto sales in 2021, annual EV sales would need to grow by 6,989,403 to reach a 50% EV to combustible engine ratio. Hypothetically if U.S auto sales stayed flat but EVs reached 50% of the market in 2030 they would sell 7,477,403 vehicles. If TSLA&#39;s dominance in the EV sector was to drop from 61.89% to 15% due to increased competition, they would generate 1,121,610 in sales compared to 301,998 in 2021. When you add in Europe and China, TSLA certainly has the ability to become a top auto manufacturer by sales next decade.<blockquote>美国的国家目标是电动汽车占国内汽车销量的50%。2021年，电动汽车占美国汽车市场总销量的3.26%。根据2021年美国汽车销量，电动汽车年销量需要增长6,989,403辆，才能达到电动汽车与内燃机的比例50%。假设，如果美国汽车销量持平，但电动汽车在2030年达到市场的50%，他们将售出7,477,403辆汽车。如果特斯拉在电动汽车领域的主导地位因竞争加剧而从61.89%下降至15%，那么它们的销量将为1,121,610辆，而2021年为301,998辆。如果加上欧洲和中国，特斯拉当然有能力在未来十年成为销量第一的汽车制造商。</blockquote>Bulls aren&#39;t incorrect to be excited about TSLA. The world is moving toward EVs, and TSLA is the crème de la crème. As I said in the beginning, I am bullish about TSLA&#39;s future prospects, but I think the valuation today is overinflated. Nobody can predict the future, but I have no doubt that TSLA will continue to grow its sales YoY.<blockquote>多头对特斯拉感到兴奋并没有错。世界正在走向电动汽车，而TSLA是其中的佼佼者。正如我一开始所说，我看好TSLA的未来前景，但我认为今天的估值被夸大了。没有人能预测未来，但我毫不怀疑特斯拉的销量将继续同比增长。</blockquote>The question becomes, how much growth will they be able to achieve YoY? In 2021, TM generated $226.48 billion of revenue and, based on the future of EVs, TSLA certainly could achieve this level of revenue in the future. Based on TSLA&#39;s current 13.51% profit margin, if they achieved TM&#39;s level of revenue, they would generate $30.59 billion of net income, which would definitely make today&#39;s valuation look more realistic.<blockquote>问题变成了，他们能够实现多少同比增长？2021年，TM创造了2264.8亿美元的收入，基于电动汽车的未来，TSLA未来肯定可以达到这一收入水平。基于TSLA目前13.51%的利润率，如果他们达到TM的收入水平，他们将产生305.9亿美元的净利润，这肯定会让今天的估值看起来更加现实。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c9176fa9bebc2c940e038cafd23229\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Tesla<blockquote>特斯拉</blockquote>Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote>You&#39;re probably wondering how I can be a shareholder and be a bear on TSLA&#39;s valuation at the same time. It&#39;s simple; my wife bought shares of TSLA, which makes me a shareholder. My stance has always been bullish on the company and bearish on the valuation. What Elon Musk and the team at TSLA has accomplished is astonishing, and they deserve nothing but respect.<blockquote>你可能想知道我怎么能既是股东又看跌特斯拉估值。很简单；我的妻子购买了特斯拉的股票，这使我成为股东。我的立场一直是看多公司，看空估值。埃隆·马斯克和特斯拉团队所取得的成就令人惊叹，他们只值得尊重。</blockquote>Keep in mind a company and a company&#39;s stock are two separate things. TSLA continues to dilute shareholders, and they and the market are valuing TSLA as if it&#39;s FB or GOOGL. TSLA is not a technology company; it&#39;s an automobile company, as the automotive segments drive 100% of its gross revenue and net income.<blockquote>请记住，公司和公司的股票是两回事。特斯拉继续稀释股东权益，他们和市场对特斯拉的估值就好像它是FB或GOOGL一样。TSLA不是一家科技公司；它是一家汽车公司，因为汽车部门占其总收入和净利润的100%。</blockquote>TSLA is trading at a P/E of 113.81, a P/S of 15.38, and a 142.52x multiple on its FCF. The numbers are drastically inflated as TSLA has no business trading at a larger P/S multiple than AMZN, which trades at 11.31 P/S when it has grown its revenue by $341.76 billion over the previous 3.25 years compared to TSLA&#39;s $40.73 billion of revenue growth. TSLA has generated $6.93 billion in FCF over the TTM, while Mr. Market has placed a 142.52x multiple on TSLA due to $7.15 billion FCF growth over the past 3.25 years. FB trades at a 15.19x FCF multiple while growing FCF by $23.45 billion over this period which is more than 3x what TSLA has generated in the TTM.<blockquote>TSLA的市盈率为113.81倍，市盈率为15.38倍，自由现金流倍数为142.52倍。这些数字被严重夸大了，因为TSLA的市盈率没有比AMZN更高的业务，AMZN的市盈率为11.31，而TSLA的收入在过去3.25年中增长了3,417.6亿美元，而TSLA的收入增长为407.3亿美元。TSLA通过TTM产生了69.3亿美元的自由现金流，而Mr由于过去3.25年FCF增长71.5亿美元，市场对TSLA的评级为142.52倍。FB的FCF市盈率为15.19倍，而在此期间FCF增长了234.5亿美元，是TSLA在TTM中产生的3倍多。</blockquote>With FB trading at 15.19x FCF, GOOGL at 23.42x FCF, and AAPL at 25.4x FCF, it&#39;s hard to justify any number above 20x for TSLA. I think a 21x FCF multiple is generous and that places TSLA at a market cap of $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion.<blockquote>FB的交易价格为15.19倍FCF，GOOGL为23.42倍FCF，AAPL为25.4倍FCF，因此很难证明TSLA的任何高于20倍的数字是合理的。我认为21倍的自由现金流倍数是慷慨的，这使得TSLA的市值达到1,454.3亿美元，比目前9,869.2亿美元的市值下降了-85.26%。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4507535-tesla-overvalued-by-85-26-percent-and-not-a-technology-company\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4507535-tesla-overvalued-by-85-26-percent-and-not-a-technology-company","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131831539","content_text":"SummaryMake no mistake, Tesla is a phenomenal company that has accomplished the unthinkable as it broke through extreme barriers of entry to disrupt the auto industry.Just because Tesla is a successful company that is causing automotive titans to change from combustible engines to EVs doesn't mean Tesla's stock is a good investment today.100% of gross profit and net income is generated from the automotive sector as Tesla's other businesses lose money, making them an automobile manufacturing company, not a technology company.I compared Tesla's metrics to the auto industry and big tech and the results are the same, Tesla's valuation is egregious.It's rare to find companies that have cult-like followings with loyalists willing to pay any price for its stock. The debate regarding Tesla, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:TSLA) valuation continues to be a topic of conversation between the bulls and the bears. Oneside argues that TSLA's financial growth and future prospects, including FSD, insurance, and robotaxis, justify the current $902.12 billion valuations, while others argue that the current financials and cult-like following have led to a massive overvaluation in TSLA's stock.I tip my hat to Elon Musk, as his accomplishments are second to none. When others called him crazy, Mr. Musk chose one of the hardest industries to compete in, started TSLA from the ground up, went to battle against the auto manufacturers, and succeeded. TSLA is one of the rare success stories that has truly shaped an industry, and the barriers of entry that were overcome are astonishing. TSLA didn't have the capital, manufacturing, credibility, or the infrastructure that its competitors did, yet they found a way to succeed. If the odds weren't enough which TSLA faced, they accomplished their goals without a combustible engine and pioneered an entirely new sector within the automotive industry.Just because TSLA is a great company, it doesn't mean TSLA has a great stock, or it isn't overvalued. I am not bearish on TSLA the company because I believe they still have a long runway of growth ahead of them, but I am bearish on the valuation. Prior to leaving a comment on why I am wrong, please read the article and think about the metrics I am citing; then, I will happily discuss any viewpoints about the analysis.Tesla Vs. The World In The Automotive SectorIt feels like TSLA vs. the world whenever TSLA is discussed. Discussing who makes a better automobile is a matter of opinion, and everyone is correct because it's their opinion. If person A thinks TSLA makes the best car and person B thinks Mercedes Benz makes the best car, they are both correct. Debating over this is pointless, so let's look at the raw numbers.TSLA has a larger market cap than the combination ofToyota(TM),Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY),Daimler(OTCPK:DDAIF),BMW(OTCPK:BMWYY),General Motors(GM),Ford(F),Honda(HMC),Ferrari(RACE),Nissan(OTCPK:NSANY),Subaru(OTCPK:FUJHY),Volvo(OTCPK:VOLAF), andMazda(OTCPK:MZDAY). TSLA's market cap is currently $986.92 billion, while the combination of these 12 companies is $777.41 billion.Steven FiorilloThe P/S ratio is often cited to justify the valuation. The combination of TM, VWAGY, DDAIF, BMWYY, GM, F, HMC, RACE, NSANY, FUJHY, VOLAF, and MZDAY has generated $1.38 trillion in revenue over the TTM, putting their P/S at 0.56, while TSLA has generated $62.19 billion in revenue and has a 15.87 P/S.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaAs a combined entity, these 12 companies have generated $118.29 billion in net income, while TSLA has produced $8.4 billion.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaTSLA is a great company, but its current valuation has become overly inflated. TSLA's market cap is $209.52 billion larger than these 12 auto manufacturers, yet the combination of the 12 auto manufacturers generates $1.32 trillion more in revenue and $109.89 billion more in net income.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaLooking at the market caps, one would assume that TSLA has a dominant majority over its competitors in auto sales within the U.S. According to the2021 data, TSLA sold 2.02% of all vehicles in the U.S. TSLA's market cap reflects a level of dominance that is non-existent.Realistically, TSLA will have a hard time disrupting the sector further due to the price point of their vehicles. The reality is that, unless TSLA can sell a car that rivals a Honda or Toyota, doubling its market share is going to be a daunting task. It's just math. TSLA doesn't have a product for the masses, and while it may continue to grow in the luxury segment, the amount of growth that can be achieved is limited due to the pricing power of the consumer.www.goodcarbadcar.netTesla Isn't A Technology Company And Shouldn't Be Valued As OneThe valuation rebuttal has always been that TSLA isn't an automobile company, rather, it's a technology company.TeslaPage 23 ofTSLA's Q1 2022 slide deck from their earnings call is their statement of operations. Once again, 100% of TSLA's gross profit and net income are derived from automobiles. Energy generation and storage lose money as it generates $616 million in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $688 million. The same goes for Services and others, as this segment generates $1.279 billion in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $1.286 billion. This doesn't even factor in operating expenses.TSLA manufacturers state of the art automobiles, but this doesn't classify them as a technology company, nor should they be classified as one. Since this is always the rebuttal and technology companies trade at larger earnings multiples, I will compare TSLA to Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), and Meta Platforms (FB) and illustrate why TSLA is still drastically overvalued if the market was still to provide it with a tech multiple.Prior to the comparisons, I want to frame the analysis by providing each company's market cap:AAPL $2.69 TrillionMSFT $2.17 TrillionGOOGL $1.62 TrillionAMZN $1.28 TrillionTSLA $986.92 BillionFB $604.62 BillionI am going to start with growth because this is always the key metric bulls point out. Since the close of 2018, which is 3.25 fiscal years, TSLA has grown its revenue from $21.46 billion to $62.19 billion.This is absolutely remarkable, but it doesn't place TSLA in the upper epsilon of technology companies. Over the same period, FB grew its revenue by $63.83 billion, which is more than what TSLA produced in the TTM. FB grew its revenue by more than what TSLA produces and generates just about double the revenue ($119.67 billion), yet TSLA has a larger market cap. For everyone who has used growth as their investment premise, FB having a market cap that's $382.30 less than TSLA nullifies that aspect of the bull thesis. AMZN's market cap is only $294.33 billion larger than TSLA, yet they generated $477.75 billion in revenue and grew their revenue by $341.76 billion in this period. Using revenue growth for TSLA doesn't support the valuation.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaNext, I will turn to profits because, at the end of the day, businesses are in the business of making money. Once again, TSLA has done a fantastic job of monetizing its business and, in 3.25 short years, has gone from losing -$976 million to make $8.4 billion in the TTM for an increase of $9.38 billion. FB has produced $37.34 billion in profit in the TTM, and its net income grew by $15.23 billion over this period. Using growth doesn't support the valuation when FB has a market cap that's $382.30 less than TSLA and grew its profits in this period by almost double what TSLA has generated in the TTM.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaThe new metric bulls are using in their thesis is TSLA's free cash flow (FCF). Once again, TSLA has done an excellent job, going from -$221 million of FCF in 2018 to $6.93 billion of FCF in the TTM. Many companies would love to grow their annual FCF by $7.15 billion over a 3.25-year period, and this should be applauded.Let's look at FB once again, since TSLA's valuation isn't based on its core segment as an automobile manufacturer. FB has grown its FCF over the previous 3.25 years by $23.45 billion, more than 3x TSLA's growth, and has generated $39.81 billion of FCF in the TTM. FB generated roughly 5.75x more FCF than TSLA and grew its FCF by more than 3x what TSLA produces, yet FB has a market cap that's almost $400 billion less than TSLA. Growth within the financials does not support TSLA's valuation, which is a breath away from $1 trillion.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaToday you're paying a 113.81 P/E for TSLA. Paying a larger multiple for a company that's growing its earnings quickly is normal, but TSLA isn't growing by larger amounts than FB, and FB trades at a 16.66 P/E. I have seen TSLA bulls justify the P/E because of TSLA's growth factor, but this doesn't hold up when FB has grown by larger amounts from larger starting positions and has a P/E that's a fraction of TSLA. Look at AAPL, which is the largest company in the world. AAPL has grown its net income by $56.25 billion and its FCF by $52.3 billion over the past 3.25 years, and its P/E is 26.78. People are blindly paying any multiple the market places on TSLA.TSLA is trading at a 15.38 P/S. The justification for this multiple is difficult to defend while AMZN trades at a P/S of 11.31. AMZN's revenue grew by $341.76 billion over the past 3.25 years while TSLA grew their revenue by $40.73 billion. Instead of an absolute basis, looking at this from a percentage aspect, TSLA grew its revenue by 189.78%, while AMZN's grew by 251.32%. The P/S ratio is not a supporting valuation metric as TSLA is trading at a larger multiple than AMZN yet produced $301.03 billion less in revenue growth compared to AMZN. At the very least, TSLA should trade at a lower P/S multiple than AMZN considering their revenue growth was a fraction of AMZN's.TSLA has done an excellent job monetizing its revenue, delivering exceptional margins, and generating FCF. Now that TSLA is generating billions in FCF, it's been inserted into the bull thesis. FCF is a measure of profitability that excludes the non-cash expenses of the income statement and includes spending on equipment and assets as well as changes in working capital from the balance sheet. FCF could be the most underrated and most important financial metric to look at, as this is the pool of capital that companies can utilize to repay debt, pay dividends, buy back shares, make acquisitions, or reinvest in the business.Every investment is the present value of all future cash flow. This is why investors look at the price to FCF valuation. Investors want to pay the cheapest multiple for a company's FCF. Today, you're paying 142.52x TSLA's FCF. Going back to the FCF section, TSLA grew its FCF by $7.15 billion over the past 3.25 years. FB generated $23.45 billion of FCF in this period, which is 3x the amount TSLA grew, yet FB is trading at a 15.19x multiple on price to FCF.Why on earth would you want to pay 142.52x for TSLA's FCF when you could pay 15.19x for FB, which is growing their FCF by more than 3x the amount that TSLA is growing by? How about AAPL? AAPL grew its FCF by $52.3 billion and trades at a 25.4x price to FCF. If I exclude FB for a moment, should TSLA trade at a larger FCF multiple than GOOGL, which has grown its FCF by $46.15 billion over the past 3.25 years? My answer is no because there is no guarantee that TSLA will ever generate $46.15 billion in annual FCF, let alone the $68.99 billion in FCF that GOOGL generates.So what is a fair price to FCF multiple for TSLA? I don't believe TSLA has earned the right to trade at the same multiples as the rest of big tech considering the levels of FCF they produce. If I stick with the methodology that FB is egregiously undervalued, then TSLA should trade above 15.19x its FCF but lower than the 23.42x multiple GOOGL trades at.I don't want to be overly bearish, so I will place a 21x multiple on TSLA's FCF, which is more than fair considering big tech metrics. A 21x multiple on TSLA's FCF puts its market cap at $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion. It's just math, and if TSLA is going to be valued as a technology company, it needs to be compared to the technology companies with similar market caps.At the very least, there isn't a single reason why TSLA's market cap is larger than FB's. There isn't a single metric that TSLA beats FB in. Based on FB's valuation, if TSLA traded at the same FCF multiple, it would have a market cap of $105.19 billion.TSLA has a gross profit margin of 27.1% ($16.85b / $62.19b) and a profit margin of 13.51% ($8.4b / $62.19b). FB has a gross profit margin of 80.34% ($96.14b / $119.67b) and a profit margin of 31.2% ($37.34b / $119.67b). FB has much wider margins and is growing its revenue by larger amounts. This reinforces my methodology as to why TSLA is grossly overvalued. GOOGL has a gross profit margin of 56.93% ($153.9b / $270.33b) and a profit margin of 27.57% ($74.54b / $270.33b).The chances are incredibly slim that TSLA can double its profit margin to be within striking distance of GOOGL's. TSLA should not trade at a larger FCF, P/E, or P/S multiple than FB or GOOGL. While the market would indicate that I am wrong today, eventually, the hype will wear off, and TSLA will trade at a realistic valuation.TSLA's Future Catalysts Have A Long Way To Go Before Impacting Its Bottom LineThere are three main catalysts people discuss, which include insurance, robotaxis, and FSD.TSLA offers insurance using real-time driving behavior. This is currently available to all Model S, Model 3, Model X, and Model Y owners. The catch is that it's only available in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Ohio, Oregon, Texas, and Virginia as of now.TSLA uses a safety rating score to determine the monthly premium for its vehicles. At the largest premium of $130/mo, this would be $1,560 per year. If TSLA converted 100% of their U.S sales in 2021 as an insurance customer, which I think could be possible if TSLA insurance was available in every state, it would have generated $471.12 million in revenue.We have no idea what the margins would have been, but if the margin was 50%, it would have been an additional $235.56 million in net income in 2021. While this is nothing to sneeze at, an additional $235.56 million in net income hardly moves the needle. This could be a $1 billion top-line revenue segment in the future, but with availability in only 7 states, insurance's $1 billion revenue mark is a long way away.TeslaNext,FSD, for which TSLA has created two subscription models, a $99/mo price point and a $199/mo price point. The problem with FSD is that it doesn't make the vehicle fully autonomous, and you still need a driver to be attentive and alert. While I am not arguing that TSLA's FSD isn't leaps and bounds ahead of the competition, the problem is that it's not exactly a self-driving car.The questions around legality and where you can use it pop into my head, and how many of TSLA's drivers opt for this upgrade. Until there is clear legislation and the technology advances to where vehicles can fully drive a person from point A to B while that person takes a nap or reads, I have a hard time believing enough TSLA owners will spend the extra $199/mo on FSD. If there is somewhere where TSLA produces the numbers about how many owners opt for this package, please let me know, and I will crunch the numbers.Which Features Come With My Subscription?The FSD capability features you receive are based on your configuration and location. Not all features are available in all markets, and features are subject to change.Learn more about Autopilot and Full Self-Driving capability features.Note: These features are designed to become more capable over time; however the currently enabled features do not make the vehicle autonomous. The currently enabled features require a fully attentive driver, who has their hands on the wheel and is prepared to take over at any moment.The last catalyst is Robotaxis which many have commented on in my articles before. We're so far off on Robotaxis that this can't be considered in TSLA's upcoming revenue. I would think major legislation would be needed for Robotaxis to exist, and there is no telling how many years away we are from this.Also, what is the percentage of TSLA owners that would actually allow their vehicle to be used as a Robotaxi? Depending on what the profitability is, I can see people buying TSLAs to enroll them in this program, but, once again, we need to see the economics behind it. I know I am just one opinion, but I would never enroll one of my cars into a robotaxi program because I don't want other people that I don't know in my car. I would think there are many others that have similar viewpoints.The real upcoming catalysts are future revenue growth and entering the Chinese market. In 2021 TSLA grew its YoY revenue by 70.67%, and their off to a great start after Q1 2022. Only time will tell what type of growth rate TSLA can maintain, but too many people are assuming that TSLA will obliterate the competition. Over the next several years, we could see TSLA's growth rate become significantly reduced as more luxury operators put EVs on the road.At TSLA's current margins, they would need to increase their revenue by 444.55% to $276.47 billion to produce the same amount of net income ($37.34b) that FB produces today at their current 13.51% profit margin. Maybe TSLA can get there in the future, but why should TSLA be valued at almost $1 trillion today, considering not a single metric of theirs is similar to FB or GOOGL, and TSLA's growth across any of the sectors isn't larger than FB or GOOGL?Tesla Continues To Dilute Shareholders, And Almost No Shareholders CareDilution kills shareholder value. Look, I am a shareholder of TSLA, and I hate that my shares continue to be diluted. These numbers are split-adjusted that I am using. Over the past decade,TSLA has diluted its shares by 80.93%. This is horrible compared to big tech, yet investors can't buy enough TSLA shares. TSLA finished 2012 with 572.6 million shares and, as of its last filing, had increased its outstanding shares to 1.036 billion shares.This is the equivalent of me taking a pizza, and instead of giving you a slice, cutting another 6.5 slices, then giving you one. The pizza represents TSLA, the company, and they basically turned an 8-slice pie into a 14.5-slice pie, reducing shareholder's ownership and the amount of equity, revenue, and EPS our shares represent.If you want to see what a true shepherd of shareholder value looks like, turn to AAPL. In 2012 AAPL had 26.3 billion shares outstanding. Over the past decade, AAPL has repurchased 10.09 billion shares, reducing its outstanding shares by 38.37%. Every quarter, AAPL is buying back shares and increasing the ownership its shares represent. TSLA, on the other hand, continues to dilute shareholders by increasing shares YOY.I Could Be Completely Wrong, And Tesla Could Continue Growing At These RatesTSLA's vehicle deliveries continue to outpace its growing production. YoY TSLA's deliveries increased by 68% in Q1, adding 125,171 delivered vehicles to its customers. TSLA just began Model Y deliveries from the Austin facility, and production at the Gigafactory in Berlin started in March of 2022. TSLA's Shanghai facility had strong production rates prior to the spike in COVID that resulted in temporary shutdowns. TSLA isn't just focusing on the U.S, they have Europe and China in their sights.EVs accounted for 488,000 sales in the U.S for 2021, and the previous projection was that EVs would account for 670,000 units sold in 2022. Oil has hovered around $100 per barrel and could render the previous projections of 37% increased EV sales domestically for 2022 conservative. TSLA is in a prime position to capitalize on this trend. In 2021 TSLA vehicles accounted for 61.89% of EVs sold in the U.S (301,998 / 488,000).Hypothetically, if the previous projection of 670,000 EV sales for 2022 is accurate and TSLA maintains its current margin, they would sell 414,628 vehicles throughout the U.S in 2022. If gas prices do alter the decision-making process when deciding between a combustible engine or an EV, then TSLA could continue surprising the market with QoQ earnings beats.The U.S has a national goal of reaching 50% of domestic auto sales coming from EVs. In 2021, EVs accounted for 3.26% of total sales in the U.S auto market. Based on U.S auto sales in 2021, annual EV sales would need to grow by 6,989,403 to reach a 50% EV to combustible engine ratio. Hypothetically if U.S auto sales stayed flat but EVs reached 50% of the market in 2030 they would sell 7,477,403 vehicles. If TSLA's dominance in the EV sector was to drop from 61.89% to 15% due to increased competition, they would generate 1,121,610 in sales compared to 301,998 in 2021. When you add in Europe and China, TSLA certainly has the ability to become a top auto manufacturer by sales next decade.Bulls aren't incorrect to be excited about TSLA. The world is moving toward EVs, and TSLA is the crème de la crème. As I said in the beginning, I am bullish about TSLA's future prospects, but I think the valuation today is overinflated. Nobody can predict the future, but I have no doubt that TSLA will continue to grow its sales YoY.The question becomes, how much growth will they be able to achieve YoY? In 2021, TM generated $226.48 billion of revenue and, based on the future of EVs, TSLA certainly could achieve this level of revenue in the future. Based on TSLA's current 13.51% profit margin, if they achieved TM's level of revenue, they would generate $30.59 billion of net income, which would definitely make today's valuation look more realistic.TeslaConclusionYou're probably wondering how I can be a shareholder and be a bear on TSLA's valuation at the same time. It's simple; my wife bought shares of TSLA, which makes me a shareholder. My stance has always been bullish on the company and bearish on the valuation. What Elon Musk and the team at TSLA has accomplished is astonishing, and they deserve nothing but respect.Keep in mind a company and a company's stock are two separate things. TSLA continues to dilute shareholders, and they and the market are valuing TSLA as if it's FB or GOOGL. TSLA is not a technology company; it's an automobile company, as the automotive segments drive 100% of its gross revenue and net income.TSLA is trading at a P/E of 113.81, a P/S of 15.38, and a 142.52x multiple on its FCF. The numbers are drastically inflated as TSLA has no business trading at a larger P/S multiple than AMZN, which trades at 11.31 P/S when it has grown its revenue by $341.76 billion over the previous 3.25 years compared to TSLA's $40.73 billion of revenue growth. TSLA has generated $6.93 billion in FCF over the TTM, while Mr. Market has placed a 142.52x multiple on TSLA due to $7.15 billion FCF growth over the past 3.25 years. FB trades at a 15.19x FCF multiple while growing FCF by $23.45 billion over this period which is more than 3x what TSLA has generated in the TTM.With FB trading at 15.19x FCF, GOOGL at 23.42x FCF, and AAPL at 25.4x FCF, it's hard to justify any number above 20x for TSLA. I think a 21x FCF multiple is generous and that places TSLA at a market cap of $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7400895,"gmtCreate":1652020139296,"gmtModify":1652020140162,"authorId":3574813808924805,"author":{"id":3574813808924805,"idStr":"3574813808924805","authorId":3574813808924805,"name":"JemLIm","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee9608155c1d123b0bf9fc773916aac7","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":616762077,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":616781361,"gmtCreate":1651984900053,"gmtModify":1651984901478,"author":{"id":"3583131237618472","authorId":"3583131237618472","name":"AdrinaChow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1b867f4c2019d6ec313665b1af8431b","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3583131237618472","authorIdStr":"3583131237618472"},"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/616781361","repostId":1131831539,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131831539","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1651980653,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131831539?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-05-08 11:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Overvalued By 85.26% And Not A Technology Company<blockquote>特斯拉：高估85.26%不是科技公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131831539","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryMake no mistake, Tesla is a phenomenal company that has accomplished the unthinkable as it broke through extreme barriers of entry to disrupt the auto industry.Just because Tesla is a successfu","content":"<html><head></head><body>Summary<blockquote><html><head></head><body>总结</body></html></blockquote><ul><li>Make no mistake, Tesla is a phenomenal company that has accomplished the unthinkable as it broke through extreme barriers of entry to disrupt the auto industry.</li><li>Just because Tesla is a successful company that is causing automotive titans to change from combustible engines to EVs doesn&#39;t mean Tesla&#39;s stock is a good investment today.</li><li>100% of gross profit and net income is generated from the automotive sector as Tesla&#39;s other businesses lose money, making them an automobile manufacturing company, not a technology company.</li><li>I compared Tesla&#39;s metrics to the auto industry and big tech and the results are the same, Tesla&#39;s valuation is egregious.</li></ul>It&#39;s rare to find companies that have cult-like followings with loyalists willing to pay any price for its stock. The debate regarding Tesla, Inc.&#39;s (NASDAQ:TSLA) valuation continues to be a topic of conversation between the bulls and the bears. Oneside argues that TSLA&#39;s financial growth and future prospects, including FSD, insurance, and robotaxis, justify the current $902.12 billion valuations, while others argue that the current financials and cult-like following have led to a massive overvaluation in TSLA&#39;s stock.<blockquote><ul><li>毫无疑问，特斯拉是一家非凡的公司，它突破了极端的进入壁垒，颠覆了汽车行业，取得了不可思议的成就。</li><li>仅仅因为特斯拉是一家成功的公司，正在推动汽车巨头从内燃机转向电动汽车，并不意味着特斯拉的股票今天是一项不错的投资。</li><li>由于特斯拉的其他业务都在亏损，100%的毛利润和净利润都来自汽车部门，这使他们成为一家汽车制造公司，而不是一家科技公司。</li><li>我将特斯拉的指标与汽车行业和大型科技公司进行了比较，结果是相同的，特斯拉的估值令人震惊。</li></ul>很少有公司拥有狂热的追随者，忠诚者愿意为其股票支付任何价格。关于特斯拉公司（纳斯达克：TSLA）估值的争论仍然是多头和空头之间的话题。Oneside认为，TSLA的财务增长和未来前景（包括FSD、保险和机器人出租车）证明了当前9021.2亿美元的估值是合理的，而其他人则认为，当前的财务状况和狂热的追随者导致了TSLA股票的大幅高估。</blockquote>I tip my hat to Elon Musk, as his accomplishments are second to none. When others called him crazy, Mr. Musk chose one of the hardest industries to compete in, started TSLA from the ground up, went to battle against the auto manufacturers, and succeeded. TSLA is one of the rare success stories that has truly shaped an industry, and the barriers of entry that were overcome are astonishing. TSLA didn&#39;t have the capital, manufacturing, credibility, or the infrastructure that its competitors did, yet they found a way to succeed. If the odds weren&#39;t enough which TSLA faced, they accomplished their goals without a combustible engine and pioneered an entirely new sector within the automotive industry.<blockquote>我向埃隆·马斯克致敬，因为他的成就是首屈一指的。当别人说他疯了时，马斯克先生选择了一个最难竞争的行业，白手起家创办了特斯拉，与汽车制造商作战，并取得了成功。特斯拉是真正塑造了一个行业的罕见成功故事之一，所克服的进入壁垒令人惊讶。特斯拉不像竞争对手那样拥有资本、制造、信誉或基础设施，但他们找到了成功的方法。如果特斯拉面临的机会还不够，他们在没有燃油发动机的情况下实现了目标，并在汽车行业开创了一个全新的领域。</blockquote>Just because TSLA is a great company, it doesn&#39;t mean TSLA has a great stock, or it isn&#39;t overvalued. I am not bearish on TSLA the company because I believe they still have a long runway of growth ahead of them, but I am bearish on the valuation. Prior to leaving a comment on why I am wrong, please read the article and think about the metrics I am citing; then, I will happily discuss any viewpoints about the analysis.<blockquote>仅仅因为特斯拉是一家伟大的公司，并不意味着特斯拉有一只伟大的股票，或者它没有被高估。我并不看跌特斯拉这家公司，因为我相信他们还有很长的增长之路，但我看跌估值。在评论我为什么错之前，请阅读这篇文章并思考我引用的指标；然后，我会很乐意讨论任何关于分析的观点。</blockquote>Tesla Vs. The World In The Automotive Sector<blockquote>特斯拉与汽车领域的世界</blockquote>It feels like TSLA vs. the world whenever TSLA is discussed. Discussing who makes a better automobile is a matter of opinion, and everyone is correct because it&#39;s their opinion. If person A thinks TSLA makes the best car and person B thinks Mercedes Benz makes the best car, they are both correct. Debating over this is pointless, so let&#39;s look at the raw numbers.<blockquote>每当讨论特斯拉时，感觉就像特斯拉对抗世界。讨论谁制造的汽车更好是见仁见智的问题，每个人都是正确的，因为这是他们的观点。如果A人认为特斯拉制造的汽车最好，B人认为奔驰制造的汽车最好，那么他们都是正确的。争论这个是没有意义的，所以让我们看看原始数据。</blockquote>TSLA has a larger market cap than the combination ofToyota(TM),Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY),Daimler(OTCPK:DDAIF),BMW(OTCPK:BMWYY),General Motors(GM),Ford(F),Honda(HMC),Ferrari(RACE),Nissan(OTCPK:NSANY),Subaru(OTCPK:FUJHY),Volvo(OTCPK:VOLAF), andMazda(OTCPK:MZDAY). TSLA&#39;s market cap is currently $986.92 billion, while the combination of these 12 companies is $777.41 billion.<blockquote>特斯拉的市值比丰田(TM)、大众(OTCPK：VWAGY)、戴姆勒(OTCPK：DDAIF)、宝马(OTCPK：BMWYY)、通用汽车(GM)、福特(F)、本田(HMC)的总和还要大)、法拉利(RACE)、日产(OTCPK：NSANY)、斯巴鲁(OTCPK：FUJHY)、沃尔沃(OTCPK：VOLAF)和马自达(OTCPK：MZDAY)。特斯拉的市值目前为9869.2亿美元，而这12家公司的市值总和为7774.1亿美元。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff930d2442bf282c1bd880cca408eb94\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛</blockquote>The P/S ratio is often cited to justify the valuation. The combination of TM, VWAGY, DDAIF, BMWYY, GM, F, HMC, RACE, NSANY, FUJHY, VOLAF, and MZDAY has generated $1.38 trillion in revenue over the TTM, putting their P/S at 0.56, while TSLA has generated $62.19 billion in revenue and has a 15.87 P/S.<blockquote>市盈率经常被用来证明估值的合理性。TM、VWAGY、DDAIF、BMWYY、GM、F、HMC、RACE、NSANY、FUJHY、VOLAF和MZDAY的组合在TTM上创造了1.38万亿美元的收入，市盈率为0.56，而TSLA则创造了621.9亿美元的收入，市盈率为15.87。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9b9661fde232925a758c38fd2e93f36\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛，寻求阿尔法</blockquote>As a combined entity, these 12 companies have generated $118.29 billion in net income, while TSLA has produced $8.4 billion.<blockquote>作为一个合并后的实体，这12家公司创造了1182.9亿美元的净利润，而TSLA创造了84亿美元。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d25806eb839eb9ca2b4ef3c24218048c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛，寻求阿尔法</blockquote>TSLA is a great company, but its current valuation has become overly inflated. TSLA&#39;s market cap is $209.52 billion larger than these 12 auto manufacturers, yet the combination of the 12 auto manufacturers generates $1.32 trillion more in revenue and $109.89 billion more in net income.<blockquote>特斯拉是一家伟大的公司，但其目前的估值已经过度膨胀。特斯拉的市值比这12家汽车制造商高出2095.2亿美元，但这12家汽车制造商加起来的收入多出1.32万亿美元，净利润多出1098.9亿美元。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1b686de4009ca733ff9651ce0d9fcaf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛，寻求阿尔法</blockquote>Looking at the market caps, one would assume that TSLA has a dominant majority over its competitors in auto sales within the U.S. According to the2021 data, TSLA sold 2.02% of all vehicles in the U.S. TSLA&#39;s market cap reflects a level of dominance that is non-existent.<blockquote>从市值来看，人们会认为特斯拉在美国的汽车销量中比竞争对手占据主导地位。根据2021年的数据，TSLA的销量占美国所有汽车的2.02%。TSLA的市值反映了不存在的主导地位。</blockquote>Realistically, TSLA will have a hard time disrupting the sector further due to the price point of their vehicles. The reality is that, unless TSLA can sell a car that rivals a Honda or Toyota, doubling its market share is going to be a daunting task. It&#39;s just math. TSLA doesn&#39;t have a product for the masses, and while it may continue to grow in the luxury segment, the amount of growth that can be achieved is limited due to the pricing power of the consumer.<blockquote>实际上，由于其车辆的价格，特斯拉将很难进一步扰乱该行业。现实情况是，除非特斯拉能够销售出与本田或丰田相媲美的汽车，否则将其市场份额翻一番将是一项艰巨的任务。只是数学而已。特斯拉没有面向大众的产品，虽然它在豪华车领域可能会继续增长，但由于消费者的定价能力，所能实现的增长是有限的。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/442ffe151dd83bc524785857925f9797\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>www.goodcarbadcar.net<blockquote>www.goodcarbadcar.net</blockquote>Tesla Isn&#39;t A Technology Company And Shouldn&#39;t Be Valued As One<blockquote>特斯拉不是一家科技公司，也不应该被视为一家科技公司</blockquote>The valuation rebuttal has always been that TSLA isn&#39;t an automobile company, rather, it&#39;s a technology company.<blockquote>估值反驳一直是特斯拉不是一家汽车公司，而是一家科技公司。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbc9ccb2cb8a0e7d40804db24e183214\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Tesla<blockquote>特斯拉</blockquote>Page 23 ofTSLA&#39;s Q1 2022 slide deck from their earnings call is their statement of operations. Once again, 100% of TSLA&#39;s gross profit and net income are derived from automobiles. Energy generation and storage lose money as it generates $616 million in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $688 million. The same goes for Services and others, as this segment generates $1.279 billion in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $1.286 billion. This doesn&#39;t even factor in operating expenses.<blockquote>特斯拉2022年第一季度收益看涨期权幻灯片的第23页是他们的运营报表。再次，TSLA的毛利润和净利润100%来自汽车。能源生产和存储亏损，因为它产生了6.16亿美元的收入，而该收入的成本为6.88亿美元。服务和其他部门也是如此，因为该部门产生了12.79亿美元的收入，而该收入的成本为12.86亿美元。这甚至没有考虑运营费用。</blockquote>TSLA manufacturers state of the art automobiles, but this doesn&#39;t classify them as a technology company, nor should they be classified as one. Since this is always the rebuttal and technology companies trade at larger earnings multiples, I will compare TSLA to Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), and Meta Platforms (FB) and illustrate why TSLA is still drastically overvalued if the market was still to provide it with a tech multiple.<blockquote>TSLA制造最先进的汽车，但这并不能将它们归类为科技公司，也不应该归类为科技公司。由于这始终是反驳，而且科技公司的市盈率较高，我将将TSLA与苹果(AAPL)、微软(MSFT)、亚马逊(AMZN)、Alphabet(GOOG)(GOOGL)和Meta Platforms进行比较(FB)并说明如果市场仍然为特斯拉提供科技市盈率，为什么特斯拉仍然被严重高估。</blockquote>Prior to the comparisons, I want to frame the analysis by providing each company&#39;s market cap:<blockquote>在进行比较之前，我想通过提供每家公司的市值来构建分析：</blockquote><ul><li>AAPL $2.69 Trillion</li><li>MSFT $2.17 Trillion</li><li>GOOGL $1.62 Trillion</li><li>AMZN $1.28 Trillion</li><li>TSLA $986.92 Billion</li><li>FB $604.62 Billion</li></ul>I am going to start with growth because this is always the key metric bulls point out. Since the close of 2018, which is 3.25 fiscal years, TSLA has grown its revenue from $21.46 billion to $62.19 billion.<blockquote><ul><li>苹果公司2.69万亿美元</li><li>MSFT 2.17万亿美元</li><li>GOOGL 1.62万亿美元</li><li>AMZN 1.28万亿美元</li><li>特斯拉9869.2亿美元</li><li>FB 6046.2亿美元</li></ul>我将从增长开始，因为这始终是多头指出的关键指标。自2018年底（即3.25财年）以来，TSLA的收入已从214.6亿美元增长至621.9亿美元。</blockquote>This is absolutely remarkable, but it doesn&#39;t place TSLA in the upper epsilon of technology companies. Over the same period, FB grew its revenue by $63.83 billion, which is more than what TSLA produced in the TTM. FB grew its revenue by more than what TSLA produces and generates just about double the revenue ($119.67 billion), yet TSLA has a larger market cap. For everyone who has used growth as their investment premise, FB having a market cap that&#39;s $382.30 less than TSLA nullifies that aspect of the bull thesis. AMZN&#39;s market cap is only $294.33 billion larger than TSLA, yet they generated $477.75 billion in revenue and grew their revenue by $341.76 billion in this period. Using revenue growth for TSLA doesn&#39;t support the valuation.<blockquote>这绝对是了不起的，但它并没有将特斯拉置于科技公司的上位。同期，FB的收入增长了638.3亿美元，超过了TSLA在TTM中的收入。FB的收入增长超过了TSLA的收入，几乎是其收入的两倍（1196.7亿美元），但TSLA的市值更大。对于每个以增长为投资前提的人来说，FB的市值比TSLA低382.30美元，这使得牛市论点的这一方面无效。AMZN的市值仅比TSLA大2943.3亿美元，但他们创造了4777.5亿美元的收入，在此期间收入增长了3417.6亿美元。使用TSLA的收入增长并不支持估值。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c0fbd4eb93f026c4575ee8f77f53e4b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛，寻求阿尔法</blockquote>Next, I will turn to profits because, at the end of the day, businesses are in the business of making money. Once again, TSLA has done a fantastic job of monetizing its business and, in 3.25 short years, has gone from losing -$976 million to make $8.4 billion in the TTM for an increase of $9.38 billion. FB has produced $37.34 billion in profit in the TTM, and its net income grew by $15.23 billion over this period. Using growth doesn&#39;t support the valuation when FB has a market cap that&#39;s $382.30 less than TSLA and grew its profits in this period by almost double what TSLA has generated in the TTM.<blockquote>接下来，我将转向利润，因为归根结底，企业是在赚钱。TSLA再次在业务货币化方面做得非常出色，在短短3.25年内，TTM从亏损9.76亿美元增至84亿美元，增加了93.8亿美元。FB在TTM创造了373.4亿美元的利润，净利润在此期间增长了152.3亿美元。当FB的市值比TSLA低382.30美元，并且在此期间的利润增长几乎是TSLA在TTM中的两倍时，使用增长并不能支持估值。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9716477607711ee0b6d4f77eb24c890\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛，寻求阿尔法</blockquote>The new metric bulls are using in their thesis is TSLA&#39;s free cash flow (FCF). Once again, TSLA has done an excellent job, going from -$221 million of FCF in 2018 to $6.93 billion of FCF in the TTM. Many companies would love to grow their annual FCF by $7.15 billion over a 3.25-year period, and this should be applauded.<blockquote>多头在论文中使用的新指标是特斯拉的自由现金流（FCF）。TSLA再次表现出色，从2018年的-2.21亿美元自由现金流增至TTM的69.3亿美元自由现金流。许多公司希望在3.25年内将其年度自由现金流增加71.5亿美元，这应该受到赞扬。</blockquote>Let&#39;s look at FB once again, since TSLA&#39;s valuation isn&#39;t based on its core segment as an automobile manufacturer. FB has grown its FCF over the previous 3.25 years by $23.45 billion, more than 3x TSLA&#39;s growth, and has generated $39.81 billion of FCF in the TTM. FB generated roughly 5.75x more FCF than TSLA and grew its FCF by more than 3x what TSLA produces, yet FB has a market cap that&#39;s almost $400 billion less than TSLA. Growth within the financials does not support TSLA&#39;s valuation, which is a breath away from $1 trillion.<blockquote>让我们再次看看FB，因为TSLA的估值并不是基于其作为汽车制造商的核心细分市场。FB的FCF在过去3.25年中增长了234.5亿美元，是TSLA增长的3倍多，并在TTM中产生了398.1亿美元的FCF。FB产生的自由现金流大约是TSLA的5.75倍，其自由现金流增长是TSLA的3倍多，但FB的市值比TSLA少近4000亿美元。金融界的增长并不能支撑TSLA的估值，该估值距离1万亿美元仅一步之遥。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/902a7074eda9e8f2f2765e0833423d2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛，寻求阿尔法</blockquote>Today you&#39;re paying a 113.81 P/E for TSLA. Paying a larger multiple for a company that&#39;s growing its earnings quickly is normal, but TSLA isn&#39;t growing by larger amounts than FB, and FB trades at a 16.66 P/E. I have seen TSLA bulls justify the P/E because of TSLA&#39;s growth factor, but this doesn&#39;t hold up when FB has grown by larger amounts from larger starting positions and has a P/E that&#39;s a fraction of TSLA. Look at AAPL, which is the largest company in the world. AAPL has grown its net income by $56.25 billion and its FCF by $52.3 billion over the past 3.25 years, and its P/E is 26.78. People are blindly paying any multiple the market places on TSLA.<blockquote>今天，您为TSLA支付的市盈率为113.81。为一家盈利快速增长的公司支付更高的市盈率是正常的，但TSLA的增长幅度并不比FB大，FB的市盈率为16.66。我见过TSLA多头因为TSLA的增长因素而证明市盈率是合理的，但当FB从较大的起始头寸增长了更多并且市盈率只是TSLA的一小部分时，这就不成立了。看看AAPL，它是世界上最大的公司。过去3.25年，AAPL的净利润增长了562.5亿美元，自由现金流增长了523亿美元，市盈率为26.78。人们盲目地支付特斯拉市场份额的任何倍数。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75168f6e39ced721cf0c53d78481a983\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TSLA is trading at a 15.38 P/S. The justification for this multiple is difficult to defend while AMZN trades at a P/S of 11.31. AMZN&#39;s revenue grew by $341.76 billion over the past 3.25 years while TSLA grew their revenue by $40.73 billion. Instead of an absolute basis, looking at this from a percentage aspect, TSLA grew its revenue by 189.78%, while AMZN&#39;s grew by 251.32%. The P/S ratio is not a supporting valuation metric as TSLA is trading at a larger multiple than AMZN yet produced $301.03 billion less in revenue growth compared to AMZN. At the very least, TSLA should trade at a lower P/S multiple than AMZN considering their revenue growth was a fraction of AMZN&#39;s.<blockquote>TSLA的交易价格为15.38 P/S。当AMZN的市盈率为11.31时，这一市盈率的合理性很难辩护。过去3.25年，AMZN的收入增长了3417.6亿美元，而TSLA的收入增长了407.3亿美元。从百分比来看，特斯拉的收入增长了189.78%，而亚马逊的收入增长了251.32%，而不是绝对基数。市盈率并不是一个支持性的估值指标，因为TSLA的市盈率高于AMZN，但与AMZN相比，其收入增长却少了3010.3亿美元。至少，考虑到特斯拉的收入增长只是亚马逊的一小部分，特斯拉的市盈率应该低于亚马逊。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aad00a6c490808962705a1a2dae45cfe\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TSLA has done an excellent job monetizing its revenue, delivering exceptional margins, and generating FCF. Now that TSLA is generating billions in FCF, it&#39;s been inserted into the bull thesis. FCF is a measure of profitability that excludes the non-cash expenses of the income statement and includes spending on equipment and assets as well as changes in working capital from the balance sheet. FCF could be the most underrated and most important financial metric to look at, as this is the pool of capital that companies can utilize to repay debt, pay dividends, buy back shares, make acquisitions, or reinvest in the business.<blockquote>特斯拉在收入货币化、提供卓越的利润率和产生自由现金流方面做得非常出色。现在，特斯拉正在产生数十亿美元的自由现金流，它已被纳入牛市论点。FCF是衡量盈利能力的指标，不包括损益表中的非现金费用，包括设备和资产支出以及资产负债表中营运资本的变化。自由现金流可能是最被低估和最重要的财务指标，因为这是公司可以用来偿还债务、支付股息、回购股票、进行收购或对业务进行再投资的资本池。</blockquote>Every investment is the present value of all future cash flow. This is why investors look at the price to FCF valuation. Investors want to pay the cheapest multiple for a company&#39;s FCF. Today, you&#39;re paying 142.52x TSLA&#39;s FCF. Going back to the FCF section, TSLA grew its FCF by $7.15 billion over the past 3.25 years. FB generated $23.45 billion of FCF in this period, which is 3x the amount TSLA grew, yet FB is trading at a 15.19x multiple on price to FCF.<blockquote>每一项投资都是未来所有现金流的现值。这就是为什么投资者关注自由现金流估值的价格。投资者希望为公司的自由现金流支付最便宜的倍数。今天，您支付的是TSLA自由现金流的142.52倍。回到自由现金流部分，TSLA的自由现金流在过去3.25年中增长了71.5亿美元。FB在此期间产生了234.5亿美元的FCF，是TSLA增长金额的3倍，但FB的市盈率是FCF的15.19倍。</blockquote>Why on earth would you want to pay 142.52x for TSLA&#39;s FCF when you could pay 15.19x for FB, which is growing their FCF by more than 3x the amount that TSLA is growing by? How about AAPL? AAPL grew its FCF by $52.3 billion and trades at a 25.4x price to FCF. If I exclude FB for a moment, should TSLA trade at a larger FCF multiple than GOOGL, which has grown its FCF by $46.15 billion over the past 3.25 years? My answer is no because there is no guarantee that TSLA will ever generate $46.15 billion in annual FCF, let alone the $68.99 billion in FCF that GOOGL generates.<blockquote>当您可以为FB支付15.19倍的FCF时，您究竟为什么要为TSLA的FCF支付142.52倍的费用，而FB的FCF增长速度是TSLA增长速度的3倍以上？苹果公司怎么样？AAPL的自由现金流增加了523亿美元，交易价格是自由现金流的25.4倍。如果我暂时排除FB，TSLA的自由现金流倍数是否应该高于GOOGL，后者的自由现金流在过去3.25年中增长了461.5亿美元？我的答案是否定的，因为无法保证特斯拉每年能够产生461.5亿美元的自由现金流，更不用说GOOGL产生的689.9亿美元的自由现金流了。</blockquote>So what is a fair price to FCF multiple for TSLA? I don&#39;t believe TSLA has earned the right to trade at the same multiples as the rest of big tech considering the levels of FCF they produce. If I stick with the methodology that FB is egregiously undervalued, then TSLA should trade above 15.19x its FCF but lower than the 23.42x multiple GOOGL trades at.<blockquote>那么TSLA的FCF倍数的合理价格是多少呢？考虑到它们产生的自由现金流水平，我认为特斯拉没有赢得与其他大型科技公司相同倍数的交易权利。如果我坚持FB被严重低估的方法论，那么TSLA的交易价格应该高于其FCF的15.19倍，但低于GOOGL交易价格的23.42倍。</blockquote>I don&#39;t want to be overly bearish, so I will place a 21x multiple on TSLA&#39;s FCF, which is more than fair considering big tech metrics. A 21x multiple on TSLA&#39;s FCF puts its market cap at $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion. It&#39;s just math, and if TSLA is going to be valued as a technology company, it needs to be compared to the technology companies with similar market caps.<blockquote>我不想过于悲观，因此我将TSLA的自由现金流设定为21倍，考虑到大型科技指标，这是非常公平的。TSLA自由现金流的21倍使其市值达到1454.3亿美元，较目前9869.2亿美元的市值下降了-85.26%。这只是数学问题，如果特斯拉要作为一家科技公司进行估值，就需要与市值相似的科技公司进行比较。</blockquote>At the very least, there isn&#39;t a single reason why TSLA&#39;s market cap is larger than FB&#39;s. There isn&#39;t a single metric that TSLA beats FB in. Based on FB&#39;s valuation, if TSLA traded at the same FCF multiple, it would have a market cap of $105.19 billion.<blockquote>至少，TSLA的市值大于FB的原因并不是单一的。TSLA没有一个指标能击败FB。根据FB的估值，如果TSLA以相同的FCF倍数交易，其市值将达到1051.9亿美元。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b81a61d60d9ec098276569cc4a501da0\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TSLA has a gross profit margin of 27.1% ($16.85b / $62.19b) and a profit margin of 13.51% ($8.4b / $62.19b). FB has a gross profit margin of 80.34% ($96.14b / $119.67b) and a profit margin of 31.2% ($37.34b / $119.67b). FB has much wider margins and is growing its revenue by larger amounts. This reinforces my methodology as to why TSLA is grossly overvalued. GOOGL has a gross profit margin of 56.93% ($153.9b / $270.33b) and a profit margin of 27.57% ($74.54b / $270.33b).<blockquote>TSLA的毛利率为27.1%（$16.85 B/$62.19 B），利润率为13.51%（$8.4 B/$62.19 B）。FB的毛利率为80.34%（$96.14 B/$119.67 B），利润率为31.2%（$37.34 B/$119.67 B）。FB的利润率要高得多，收入也在大幅增长。这强化了我关于为什么特斯拉被严重高估的方法论。GOOGL的毛利率为56.93%（$153.9 B/$270.33 B），利润率为27.57%（$745.4 B/$270.33 B）。</blockquote>The chances are incredibly slim that TSLA can double its profit margin to be within striking distance of GOOGL&#39;s. TSLA should not trade at a larger FCF, P/E, or P/S multiple than FB or GOOGL. While the market would indicate that I am wrong today, eventually, the hype will wear off, and TSLA will trade at a realistic valuation.<blockquote>特斯拉将利润率提高一倍，与GOOGL相提并论的可能性微乎其微。TSLA的自由现金流、市盈率或市盈率不应高于FB或GOOGL。虽然市场今天会表明我错了，但最终，炒作将会消退，特斯拉将以现实的估值进行交易。</blockquote>TSLA&#39;s Future Catalysts Have A Long Way To Go Before Impacting Its Bottom Line<blockquote>特斯拉未来的催化剂在影响其利润之前还有很长的路要走</blockquote>There are three main catalysts people discuss, which include insurance, robotaxis, and FSD.TSLA offers insurance using real-time driving behavior. This is currently available to all Model S, Model 3, Model X, and Model Y owners. The catch is that it&#39;s only available in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Ohio, Oregon, Texas, and Virginia as of now.<blockquote>人们讨论的催化剂主要有三个，包括保险、机器人出租车和FSD.TSLA使用实时驾驶行为提供保险。目前，所有Model S、Model 3、Model X和Model Y车主均可使用该功能。问题是，目前它仅在亚利桑那州、科罗拉多州、伊利诺伊州、俄亥俄州、俄勒冈州、德克萨斯州和弗吉尼亚州可用。</blockquote>TSLA uses a safety rating score to determine the monthly premium for its vehicles. At the largest premium of $130/mo, this would be $1,560 per year. If TSLA converted 100% of their U.S sales in 2021 as an insurance customer, which I think could be possible if TSLA insurance was available in every state, it would have generated $471.12 million in revenue.<blockquote>特斯拉使用安全评级分数来确定其车辆的每月保费。以130美元/月的最大保费计算，每年为1,560美元。如果TSLA在2021年将其在美国的销售额100%转化为保险客户（我认为如果每个州都提供TSLA保险，这是可能的），那么它将产生4.7112亿美元的收入。</blockquote>We have no idea what the margins would have been, but if the margin was 50%, it would have been an additional $235.56 million in net income in 2021. While this is nothing to sneeze at, an additional $235.56 million in net income hardly moves the needle. This could be a $1 billion top-line revenue segment in the future, but with availability in only 7 states, insurance&#39;s $1 billion revenue mark is a long way away.<blockquote>我们不知道利润率是多少，但如果利润率为50%，2021年净利润将增加2.3556亿美元。虽然这不容小觑，但额外的2.3556亿美元净利润几乎没有什么影响。这可能是未来10亿美元的营收部分，但由于仅在7个州提供服务，保险业10亿美元的收入大关还有很长的路要走。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e86de6232b9abf7cee46a9607eb09741\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Tesla<blockquote>特斯拉</blockquote>Next,FSD, for which TSLA has created two subscription models, a $99/mo price point and a $199/mo price point. The problem with FSD is that it doesn&#39;t make the vehicle fully autonomous, and you still need a driver to be attentive and alert. While I am not arguing that TSLA&#39;s FSD isn&#39;t leaps and bounds ahead of the competition, the problem is that it&#39;s not exactly a self-driving car.<blockquote>接下来是FSD，TSLA为其创建了两种订阅模式，99美元/月的价格点和199美元/月的价格点。FSD的问题在于，它不能使车辆完全自动驾驶，您仍然需要驾驶员保持专注和警觉。虽然我并不是说TSLA的FSD没有在竞争中遥遥领先，但问题是它并不完全是自动驾驶汽车。</blockquote>The questions around legality and where you can use it pop into my head, and how many of TSLA&#39;s drivers opt for this upgrade. Until there is clear legislation and the technology advances to where vehicles can fully drive a person from point A to B while that person takes a nap or reads, I have a hard time believing enough TSLA owners will spend the extra $199/mo on FSD. If there is somewhere where TSLA produces the numbers about how many owners opt for this package, please let me know, and I will crunch the numbers.<blockquote>有关合法性和在哪里可以使用它的问题突然出现在我的脑海中，以及有多少TSLA的司机选择了这种升级。在有明确的立法和技术进步到车辆可以在一个人午睡或阅读的时候完全驾驶一个人从A点到B点之前，我很难相信有足够多的TSLA车主会在FSD上额外花费199美元/月。如果TSLA在某个地方提供了有关有多少车主选择此套餐的数据，请让我知道，我将处理这些数据。</blockquote>Which Features Come With My Subscription?<blockquote>我的订阅附带哪些功能？</blockquote>The FSD capability features you receive are based on your configuration and location. Not all features are available in all markets, and features are subject to change.Learn more about Autopilot and Full Self-Driving capability features.Note: These features are designed to become more capable over time; however the currently enabled features do not make the vehicle autonomous. The currently enabled features require a fully attentive driver, who has their hands on the wheel and is prepared to take over at any moment.The last catalyst is Robotaxis which many have commented on in my articles before. We&#39;re so far off on Robotaxis that this can&#39;t be considered in TSLA&#39;s upcoming revenue. I would think major legislation would be needed for Robotaxis to exist, and there is no telling how many years away we are from this.<blockquote>您收到的FSD功能基于您的配置和位置。并非所有功能在所有市场都可用，并且功能可能会发生变化。了解有关Autopilot和全自动驾驶功能的更多信息。注意：这些功能旨在随着时间的推移变得更强大；然而，当前启用的特征并不能使车辆自主。目前启用的功能需要一个全神贯注的驾驶员，他的手放在方向盘上，随时准备接管。最后一个催化剂是机器人出租车，许多人在我之前的文章中评论过。我们在机器人出租车方面的差距太大，以至于不能在特斯拉即将到来的收入中考虑这一点。我认为机器人出租车的存在需要重大立法，而且不知道我们还需要多少年。</blockquote>Also, what is the percentage of TSLA owners that would actually allow their vehicle to be used as a Robotaxi? Depending on what the profitability is, I can see people buying TSLAs to enroll them in this program, but, once again, we need to see the economics behind it. I know I am just one opinion, but I would never enroll one of my cars into a robotaxi program because I don&#39;t want other people that I don&#39;t know in my car. I would think there are many others that have similar viewpoints.<blockquote>另外，真正允许他们的车辆用作机器人出租车的TSLA车主比例是多少？根据盈利能力，我可以看到人们购买特斯拉来加入这个计划，但是，我们需要再次看到其背后的经济学。我知道我只是一种观点，但我永远不会让我的一辆车加入机器人出租车计划，因为我不想让我不认识的其他人在我的车里。我想还有很多人有类似的观点。</blockquote>The real upcoming catalysts are future revenue growth and entering the Chinese market. In 2021 TSLA grew its YoY revenue by 70.67%, and their off to a great start after Q1 2022. Only time will tell what type of growth rate TSLA can maintain, but too many people are assuming that TSLA will obliterate the competition. Over the next several years, we could see TSLA&#39;s growth rate become significantly reduced as more luxury operators put EVs on the road.<blockquote>真正即将到来的催化剂是未来的收入增长和进入中国市场。2021年，特斯拉收入同比增长70.67%，在2022年第一季度之后取得了良好的开端。只有时间才能证明特斯拉能够保持什么样的增长率，但太多人认为特斯拉将消灭竞争对手。在接下来的几年里，随着更多的豪华运营商将电动汽车上路，我们可能会看到特斯拉的增长率大幅下降。</blockquote>At TSLA&#39;s current margins, they would need to increase their revenue by 444.55% to $276.47 billion to produce the same amount of net income ($37.34b) that FB produces today at their current 13.51% profit margin. Maybe TSLA can get there in the future, but why should TSLA be valued at almost $1 trillion today, considering not a single metric of theirs is similar to FB or GOOGL, and TSLA&#39;s growth across any of the sectors isn&#39;t larger than FB or GOOGL?<blockquote>按照TSLA目前的利润率，他们需要将收入增加444.55%，达到2,764.7亿美元，才能产生与FB目前13.51%利润率相同的净利润($37.34 B)。也许TSLA未来可以实现这一目标，但为什么TSLA今天的估值应该接近1万亿美元，因为他们没有一个指标与FB或GOOGL相似，而且TSLA在任何领域的增长都不比FB或GOOGL大？</blockquote>Tesla Continues To Dilute Shareholders, And Almost No Shareholders Care<blockquote>特斯拉不断稀释股东，几乎没有股东关心</blockquote>Dilution kills shareholder value. Look, I am a shareholder of TSLA, and I hate that my shares continue to be diluted. These numbers are split-adjusted that I am using. Over the past decade,TSLA has diluted its shares by 80.93%. This is horrible compared to big tech, yet investors can&#39;t buy enough TSLA shares. TSLA finished 2012 with 572.6 million shares and, as of its last filing, had increased its outstanding shares to 1.036 billion shares.<blockquote>稀释会扼杀股东价值。听着，我是特斯拉的股东，我讨厌我的股份继续被稀释。这些数字是我正在使用的分割调整的。过去十年，TSLA的股份稀释了80.93%。与大型科技公司相比，这是可怕的，但投资者无法购买足够的特斯拉股票。截至2012年底，特斯拉持有5.726亿股股票，截至上次提交文件，其流通股已增至10.36亿股。</blockquote>This is the equivalent of me taking a pizza, and instead of giving you a slice, cutting another 6.5 slices, then giving you one. The pizza represents TSLA, the company, and they basically turned an 8-slice pie into a 14.5-slice pie, reducing shareholder&#39;s ownership and the amount of equity, revenue, and EPS our shares represent.<blockquote>这相当于我拿了一个披萨，不是给你一片，而是再切6.5片，然后给你一片。披萨代表TSLA公司，他们基本上将8片馅饼变成了14.5片馅饼，减少了股东所有权以及我们的股票所代表的股本、收入和每股收益。</blockquote>If you want to see what a true shepherd of shareholder value looks like, turn to AAPL. In 2012 AAPL had 26.3 billion shares outstanding. Over the past decade, AAPL has repurchased 10.09 billion shares, reducing its outstanding shares by 38.37%. Every quarter, AAPL is buying back shares and increasing the ownership its shares represent. TSLA, on the other hand, continues to dilute shareholders by increasing shares YOY.<blockquote>如果您想了解真正的股东价值牧羊人是什么样子，请转向AAPL。2012年，AAPL拥有263亿股已发行股票。过去十年，AAPL回购了100.9亿股，流通股减少了38.37%。每个季度，苹果公司都会回购股票并增加其股票所代表的所有权。另一方面，特斯拉继续通过同比增持来稀释股东权益。</blockquote>I Could Be Completely Wrong, And Tesla Could Continue Growing At These Rates<blockquote>我可能完全错了，特斯拉可能会继续以这样的速度增长</blockquote>TSLA&#39;s vehicle deliveries continue to outpace its growing production. YoY TSLA&#39;s deliveries increased by 68% in Q1, adding 125,171 delivered vehicles to its customers. TSLA just began Model Y deliveries from the Austin facility, and production at the Gigafactory in Berlin started in March of 2022. TSLA&#39;s Shanghai facility had strong production rates prior to the spike in COVID that resulted in temporary shutdowns. TSLA isn&#39;t just focusing on the U.S, they have Europe and China in their sights.<blockquote>特斯拉的汽车交付量继续超过其产量增长速度。特斯拉第一季度的交付量同比增长68%，向客户交付了125,171辆汽车。TSLA刚刚开始从奥斯汀工厂交付Model Y，柏林超级工厂的生产于2022年3月开始。在新冠疫情激增导致暂时关闭之前，特斯拉上海工厂的生产率强劲。特斯拉不仅仅关注美国，他们还将目光投向了欧洲和中国。</blockquote>EVs accounted for 488,000 sales in the U.S for 2021, and the previous projection was that EVs would account for 670,000 units sold in 2022. Oil has hovered around $100 per barrel and could render the previous projections of 37% increased EV sales domestically for 2022 conservative. TSLA is in a prime position to capitalize on this trend. In 2021 TSLA vehicles accounted for 61.89% of EVs sold in the U.S (301,998 / 488,000).<blockquote>2021年，电动汽车在美国的销量为488,000辆，此前的预测是2022年电动汽车的销量将达到670,000辆。油价一直徘徊在每桶100美元左右，这可能会使之前对2022年国内电动汽车销量增长37%的预测变得保守。特斯拉处于利用这一趋势的有利位置。2021年，TSLA汽车占美国电动汽车销量的61.89%（301,998/488,000辆）。</blockquote>Hypothetically, if the previous projection of 670,000 EV sales for 2022 is accurate and TSLA maintains its current margin, they would sell 414,628 vehicles throughout the U.S in 2022. If gas prices do alter the decision-making process when deciding between a combustible engine or an EV, then TSLA could continue surprising the market with QoQ earnings beats.<blockquote>假设，如果之前对2022年电动汽车销量670,000辆的预测是准确的，并且TSLA保持目前的利润率，那么2022年他们将在美国销售414,628辆汽车。如果汽油价格确实改变了在决定燃油发动机还是电动汽车时的决策过程，那么特斯拉可能会继续以季度盈利超出市场预期。</blockquote>The U.S has a national goal of reaching 50% of domestic auto sales coming from EVs. In 2021, EVs accounted for 3.26% of total sales in the U.S auto market. Based on U.S auto sales in 2021, annual EV sales would need to grow by 6,989,403 to reach a 50% EV to combustible engine ratio. Hypothetically if U.S auto sales stayed flat but EVs reached 50% of the market in 2030 they would sell 7,477,403 vehicles. If TSLA&#39;s dominance in the EV sector was to drop from 61.89% to 15% due to increased competition, they would generate 1,121,610 in sales compared to 301,998 in 2021. When you add in Europe and China, TSLA certainly has the ability to become a top auto manufacturer by sales next decade.<blockquote>美国的国家目标是电动汽车占国内汽车销量的50%。2021年，电动汽车占美国汽车市场总销量的3.26%。根据2021年美国汽车销量，电动汽车年销量需要增长6,989,403辆，才能达到电动汽车与内燃机的比例50%。假设，如果美国汽车销量持平，但电动汽车在2030年达到市场的50%，他们将售出7,477,403辆汽车。如果特斯拉在电动汽车领域的主导地位因竞争加剧而从61.89%下降至15%，那么它们的销量将为1,121,610辆，而2021年为301,998辆。如果加上欧洲和中国，特斯拉当然有能力在未来十年成为销量第一的汽车制造商。</blockquote>Bulls aren&#39;t incorrect to be excited about TSLA. The world is moving toward EVs, and TSLA is the crème de la crème. As I said in the beginning, I am bullish about TSLA&#39;s future prospects, but I think the valuation today is overinflated. Nobody can predict the future, but I have no doubt that TSLA will continue to grow its sales YoY.<blockquote>多头对特斯拉感到兴奋并没有错。世界正在走向电动汽车，而TSLA是其中的佼佼者。正如我一开始所说，我看好TSLA的未来前景，但我认为今天的估值被夸大了。没有人能预测未来，但我毫不怀疑特斯拉的销量将继续同比增长。</blockquote>The question becomes, how much growth will they be able to achieve YoY? In 2021, TM generated $226.48 billion of revenue and, based on the future of EVs, TSLA certainly could achieve this level of revenue in the future. Based on TSLA&#39;s current 13.51% profit margin, if they achieved TM&#39;s level of revenue, they would generate $30.59 billion of net income, which would definitely make today&#39;s valuation look more realistic.<blockquote>问题变成了，他们能够实现多少同比增长？2021年，TM创造了2264.8亿美元的收入，基于电动汽车的未来，TSLA未来肯定可以达到这一收入水平。基于TSLA目前13.51%的利润率，如果他们达到TM的收入水平，他们将产生305.9亿美元的净利润，这肯定会让今天的估值看起来更加现实。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c9176fa9bebc2c940e038cafd23229\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Tesla<blockquote>特斯拉</blockquote>Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote>You&#39;re probably wondering how I can be a shareholder and be a bear on TSLA&#39;s valuation at the same time. It&#39;s simple; my wife bought shares of TSLA, which makes me a shareholder. My stance has always been bullish on the company and bearish on the valuation. What Elon Musk and the team at TSLA has accomplished is astonishing, and they deserve nothing but respect.<blockquote>你可能想知道我怎么能既是股东又看跌特斯拉估值。很简单；我的妻子购买了特斯拉的股票，这使我成为股东。我的立场一直是看多公司，看空估值。埃隆·马斯克和特斯拉团队所取得的成就令人惊叹，他们只值得尊重。</blockquote>Keep in mind a company and a company&#39;s stock are two separate things. TSLA continues to dilute shareholders, and they and the market are valuing TSLA as if it&#39;s FB or GOOGL. TSLA is not a technology company; it&#39;s an automobile company, as the automotive segments drive 100% of its gross revenue and net income.<blockquote>请记住，公司和公司的股票是两回事。特斯拉继续稀释股东权益，他们和市场对特斯拉的估值就好像它是FB或GOOGL一样。TSLA不是一家科技公司；它是一家汽车公司，因为汽车部门占其总收入和净利润的100%。</blockquote>TSLA is trading at a P/E of 113.81, a P/S of 15.38, and a 142.52x multiple on its FCF. The numbers are drastically inflated as TSLA has no business trading at a larger P/S multiple than AMZN, which trades at 11.31 P/S when it has grown its revenue by $341.76 billion over the previous 3.25 years compared to TSLA&#39;s $40.73 billion of revenue growth. TSLA has generated $6.93 billion in FCF over the TTM, while Mr. Market has placed a 142.52x multiple on TSLA due to $7.15 billion FCF growth over the past 3.25 years. FB trades at a 15.19x FCF multiple while growing FCF by $23.45 billion over this period which is more than 3x what TSLA has generated in the TTM.<blockquote>TSLA的市盈率为113.81倍，市盈率为15.38倍，自由现金流倍数为142.52倍。这些数字被严重夸大了，因为TSLA的市盈率没有比AMZN更高的业务，AMZN的市盈率为11.31，而TSLA的收入在过去3.25年中增长了3,417.6亿美元，而TSLA的收入增长为407.3亿美元。TSLA通过TTM产生了69.3亿美元的自由现金流，而Mr由于过去3.25年FCF增长71.5亿美元，市场对TSLA的评级为142.52倍。FB的FCF市盈率为15.19倍，而在此期间FCF增长了234.5亿美元，是TSLA在TTM中产生的3倍多。</blockquote>With FB trading at 15.19x FCF, GOOGL at 23.42x FCF, and AAPL at 25.4x FCF, it&#39;s hard to justify any number above 20x for TSLA. I think a 21x FCF multiple is generous and that places TSLA at a market cap of $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion.<blockquote>FB的交易价格为15.19倍FCF，GOOGL为23.42倍FCF，AAPL为25.4倍FCF，因此很难证明TSLA的任何高于20倍的数字是合理的。我认为21倍的自由现金流倍数是慷慨的，这使得TSLA的市值达到1,454.3亿美元，比目前9,869.2亿美元的市值下降了-85.26%。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Overvalued By 85.26% And Not A Technology Company<blockquote>特斯拉：高估85.26%不是科技公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Overvalued By 85.26% And Not A Technology Company<blockquote>特斯拉：高估85.26%不是科技公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2022-05-08 11:30\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>Summary<blockquote><html><head></head><body>总结</body></html></blockquote><ul><li>Make no mistake, Tesla is a phenomenal company that has accomplished the unthinkable as it broke through extreme barriers of entry to disrupt the auto industry.</li><li>Just because Tesla is a successful company that is causing automotive titans to change from combustible engines to EVs doesn&#39;t mean Tesla&#39;s stock is a good investment today.</li><li>100% of gross profit and net income is generated from the automotive sector as Tesla&#39;s other businesses lose money, making them an automobile manufacturing company, not a technology company.</li><li>I compared Tesla&#39;s metrics to the auto industry and big tech and the results are the same, Tesla&#39;s valuation is egregious.</li></ul>It&#39;s rare to find companies that have cult-like followings with loyalists willing to pay any price for its stock. The debate regarding Tesla, Inc.&#39;s (NASDAQ:TSLA) valuation continues to be a topic of conversation between the bulls and the bears. Oneside argues that TSLA&#39;s financial growth and future prospects, including FSD, insurance, and robotaxis, justify the current $902.12 billion valuations, while others argue that the current financials and cult-like following have led to a massive overvaluation in TSLA&#39;s stock.<blockquote><ul><li>毫无疑问，特斯拉是一家非凡的公司，它突破了极端的进入壁垒，颠覆了汽车行业，取得了不可思议的成就。</li><li>仅仅因为特斯拉是一家成功的公司，正在推动汽车巨头从内燃机转向电动汽车，并不意味着特斯拉的股票今天是一项不错的投资。</li><li>由于特斯拉的其他业务都在亏损，100%的毛利润和净利润都来自汽车部门，这使他们成为一家汽车制造公司，而不是一家科技公司。</li><li>我将特斯拉的指标与汽车行业和大型科技公司进行了比较，结果是相同的，特斯拉的估值令人震惊。</li></ul>很少有公司拥有狂热的追随者，忠诚者愿意为其股票支付任何价格。关于特斯拉公司（纳斯达克：TSLA）估值的争论仍然是多头和空头之间的话题。Oneside认为，TSLA的财务增长和未来前景（包括FSD、保险和机器人出租车）证明了当前9021.2亿美元的估值是合理的，而其他人则认为，当前的财务状况和狂热的追随者导致了TSLA股票的大幅高估。</blockquote>I tip my hat to Elon Musk, as his accomplishments are second to none. When others called him crazy, Mr. Musk chose one of the hardest industries to compete in, started TSLA from the ground up, went to battle against the auto manufacturers, and succeeded. TSLA is one of the rare success stories that has truly shaped an industry, and the barriers of entry that were overcome are astonishing. TSLA didn&#39;t have the capital, manufacturing, credibility, or the infrastructure that its competitors did, yet they found a way to succeed. If the odds weren&#39;t enough which TSLA faced, they accomplished their goals without a combustible engine and pioneered an entirely new sector within the automotive industry.<blockquote>我向埃隆·马斯克致敬，因为他的成就是首屈一指的。当别人说他疯了时，马斯克先生选择了一个最难竞争的行业，白手起家创办了特斯拉，与汽车制造商作战，并取得了成功。特斯拉是真正塑造了一个行业的罕见成功故事之一，所克服的进入壁垒令人惊讶。特斯拉不像竞争对手那样拥有资本、制造、信誉或基础设施，但他们找到了成功的方法。如果特斯拉面临的机会还不够，他们在没有燃油发动机的情况下实现了目标，并在汽车行业开创了一个全新的领域。</blockquote>Just because TSLA is a great company, it doesn&#39;t mean TSLA has a great stock, or it isn&#39;t overvalued. I am not bearish on TSLA the company because I believe they still have a long runway of growth ahead of them, but I am bearish on the valuation. Prior to leaving a comment on why I am wrong, please read the article and think about the metrics I am citing; then, I will happily discuss any viewpoints about the analysis.<blockquote>仅仅因为特斯拉是一家伟大的公司，并不意味着特斯拉有一只伟大的股票，或者它没有被高估。我并不看跌特斯拉这家公司，因为我相信他们还有很长的增长之路，但我看跌估值。在评论我为什么错之前，请阅读这篇文章并思考我引用的指标；然后，我会很乐意讨论任何关于分析的观点。</blockquote>Tesla Vs. The World In The Automotive Sector<blockquote>特斯拉与汽车领域的世界</blockquote>It feels like TSLA vs. the world whenever TSLA is discussed. Discussing who makes a better automobile is a matter of opinion, and everyone is correct because it&#39;s their opinion. If person A thinks TSLA makes the best car and person B thinks Mercedes Benz makes the best car, they are both correct. Debating over this is pointless, so let&#39;s look at the raw numbers.<blockquote>每当讨论特斯拉时，感觉就像特斯拉对抗世界。讨论谁制造的汽车更好是见仁见智的问题，每个人都是正确的，因为这是他们的观点。如果A人认为特斯拉制造的汽车最好，B人认为奔驰制造的汽车最好，那么他们都是正确的。争论这个是没有意义的，所以让我们看看原始数据。</blockquote>TSLA has a larger market cap than the combination ofToyota(TM),Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY),Daimler(OTCPK:DDAIF),BMW(OTCPK:BMWYY),General Motors(GM),Ford(F),Honda(HMC),Ferrari(RACE),Nissan(OTCPK:NSANY),Subaru(OTCPK:FUJHY),Volvo(OTCPK:VOLAF), andMazda(OTCPK:MZDAY). TSLA&#39;s market cap is currently $986.92 billion, while the combination of these 12 companies is $777.41 billion.<blockquote>特斯拉的市值比丰田(TM)、大众(OTCPK：VWAGY)、戴姆勒(OTCPK：DDAIF)、宝马(OTCPK：BMWYY)、通用汽车(GM)、福特(F)、本田(HMC)的总和还要大)、法拉利(RACE)、日产(OTCPK：NSANY)、斯巴鲁(OTCPK：FUJHY)、沃尔沃(OTCPK：VOLAF)和马自达(OTCPK：MZDAY)。特斯拉的市值目前为9869.2亿美元，而这12家公司的市值总和为7774.1亿美元。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff930d2442bf282c1bd880cca408eb94\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛</blockquote>The P/S ratio is often cited to justify the valuation. The combination of TM, VWAGY, DDAIF, BMWYY, GM, F, HMC, RACE, NSANY, FUJHY, VOLAF, and MZDAY has generated $1.38 trillion in revenue over the TTM, putting their P/S at 0.56, while TSLA has generated $62.19 billion in revenue and has a 15.87 P/S.<blockquote>市盈率经常被用来证明估值的合理性。TM、VWAGY、DDAIF、BMWYY、GM、F、HMC、RACE、NSANY、FUJHY、VOLAF和MZDAY的组合在TTM上创造了1.38万亿美元的收入，市盈率为0.56，而TSLA则创造了621.9亿美元的收入，市盈率为15.87。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9b9661fde232925a758c38fd2e93f36\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛，寻求阿尔法</blockquote>As a combined entity, these 12 companies have generated $118.29 billion in net income, while TSLA has produced $8.4 billion.<blockquote>作为一个合并后的实体，这12家公司创造了1182.9亿美元的净利润，而TSLA创造了84亿美元。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d25806eb839eb9ca2b4ef3c24218048c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛，寻求阿尔法</blockquote>TSLA is a great company, but its current valuation has become overly inflated. TSLA&#39;s market cap is $209.52 billion larger than these 12 auto manufacturers, yet the combination of the 12 auto manufacturers generates $1.32 trillion more in revenue and $109.89 billion more in net income.<blockquote>特斯拉是一家伟大的公司，但其目前的估值已经过度膨胀。特斯拉的市值比这12家汽车制造商高出2095.2亿美元，但这12家汽车制造商加起来的收入多出1.32万亿美元，净利润多出1098.9亿美元。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1b686de4009ca733ff9651ce0d9fcaf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛，寻求阿尔法</blockquote>Looking at the market caps, one would assume that TSLA has a dominant majority over its competitors in auto sales within the U.S. According to the2021 data, TSLA sold 2.02% of all vehicles in the U.S. TSLA&#39;s market cap reflects a level of dominance that is non-existent.<blockquote>从市值来看，人们会认为特斯拉在美国的汽车销量中比竞争对手占据主导地位。根据2021年的数据，TSLA的销量占美国所有汽车的2.02%。TSLA的市值反映了不存在的主导地位。</blockquote>Realistically, TSLA will have a hard time disrupting the sector further due to the price point of their vehicles. The reality is that, unless TSLA can sell a car that rivals a Honda or Toyota, doubling its market share is going to be a daunting task. It&#39;s just math. TSLA doesn&#39;t have a product for the masses, and while it may continue to grow in the luxury segment, the amount of growth that can be achieved is limited due to the pricing power of the consumer.<blockquote>实际上，由于其车辆的价格，特斯拉将很难进一步扰乱该行业。现实情况是，除非特斯拉能够销售出与本田或丰田相媲美的汽车，否则将其市场份额翻一番将是一项艰巨的任务。只是数学而已。特斯拉没有面向大众的产品，虽然它在豪华车领域可能会继续增长，但由于消费者的定价能力，所能实现的增长是有限的。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/442ffe151dd83bc524785857925f9797\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>www.goodcarbadcar.net<blockquote>www.goodcarbadcar.net</blockquote>Tesla Isn&#39;t A Technology Company And Shouldn&#39;t Be Valued As One<blockquote>特斯拉不是一家科技公司，也不应该被视为一家科技公司</blockquote>The valuation rebuttal has always been that TSLA isn&#39;t an automobile company, rather, it&#39;s a technology company.<blockquote>估值反驳一直是特斯拉不是一家汽车公司，而是一家科技公司。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbc9ccb2cb8a0e7d40804db24e183214\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Tesla<blockquote>特斯拉</blockquote>Page 23 ofTSLA&#39;s Q1 2022 slide deck from their earnings call is their statement of operations. Once again, 100% of TSLA&#39;s gross profit and net income are derived from automobiles. Energy generation and storage lose money as it generates $616 million in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $688 million. The same goes for Services and others, as this segment generates $1.279 billion in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $1.286 billion. This doesn&#39;t even factor in operating expenses.<blockquote>特斯拉2022年第一季度收益看涨期权幻灯片的第23页是他们的运营报表。再次，TSLA的毛利润和净利润100%来自汽车。能源生产和存储亏损，因为它产生了6.16亿美元的收入，而该收入的成本为6.88亿美元。服务和其他部门也是如此，因为该部门产生了12.79亿美元的收入，而该收入的成本为12.86亿美元。这甚至没有考虑运营费用。</blockquote>TSLA manufacturers state of the art automobiles, but this doesn&#39;t classify them as a technology company, nor should they be classified as one. Since this is always the rebuttal and technology companies trade at larger earnings multiples, I will compare TSLA to Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), and Meta Platforms (FB) and illustrate why TSLA is still drastically overvalued if the market was still to provide it with a tech multiple.<blockquote>TSLA制造最先进的汽车，但这并不能将它们归类为科技公司，也不应该归类为科技公司。由于这始终是反驳，而且科技公司的市盈率较高，我将将TSLA与苹果(AAPL)、微软(MSFT)、亚马逊(AMZN)、Alphabet(GOOG)(GOOGL)和Meta Platforms进行比较(FB)并说明如果市场仍然为特斯拉提供科技市盈率，为什么特斯拉仍然被严重高估。</blockquote>Prior to the comparisons, I want to frame the analysis by providing each company&#39;s market cap:<blockquote>在进行比较之前，我想通过提供每家公司的市值来构建分析：</blockquote><ul><li>AAPL $2.69 Trillion</li><li>MSFT $2.17 Trillion</li><li>GOOGL $1.62 Trillion</li><li>AMZN $1.28 Trillion</li><li>TSLA $986.92 Billion</li><li>FB $604.62 Billion</li></ul>I am going to start with growth because this is always the key metric bulls point out. Since the close of 2018, which is 3.25 fiscal years, TSLA has grown its revenue from $21.46 billion to $62.19 billion.<blockquote><ul><li>苹果公司2.69万亿美元</li><li>MSFT 2.17万亿美元</li><li>GOOGL 1.62万亿美元</li><li>AMZN 1.28万亿美元</li><li>特斯拉9869.2亿美元</li><li>FB 6046.2亿美元</li></ul>我将从增长开始，因为这始终是多头指出的关键指标。自2018年底（即3.25财年）以来，TSLA的收入已从214.6亿美元增长至621.9亿美元。</blockquote>This is absolutely remarkable, but it doesn&#39;t place TSLA in the upper epsilon of technology companies. Over the same period, FB grew its revenue by $63.83 billion, which is more than what TSLA produced in the TTM. FB grew its revenue by more than what TSLA produces and generates just about double the revenue ($119.67 billion), yet TSLA has a larger market cap. For everyone who has used growth as their investment premise, FB having a market cap that&#39;s $382.30 less than TSLA nullifies that aspect of the bull thesis. AMZN&#39;s market cap is only $294.33 billion larger than TSLA, yet they generated $477.75 billion in revenue and grew their revenue by $341.76 billion in this period. Using revenue growth for TSLA doesn&#39;t support the valuation.<blockquote>这绝对是了不起的，但它并没有将特斯拉置于科技公司的上位。同期，FB的收入增长了638.3亿美元，超过了TSLA在TTM中的收入。FB的收入增长超过了TSLA的收入，几乎是其收入的两倍（1196.7亿美元），但TSLA的市值更大。对于每个以增长为投资前提的人来说，FB的市值比TSLA低382.30美元，这使得牛市论点的这一方面无效。AMZN的市值仅比TSLA大2943.3亿美元，但他们创造了4777.5亿美元的收入，在此期间收入增长了3417.6亿美元。使用TSLA的收入增长并不支持估值。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c0fbd4eb93f026c4575ee8f77f53e4b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛，寻求阿尔法</blockquote>Next, I will turn to profits because, at the end of the day, businesses are in the business of making money. Once again, TSLA has done a fantastic job of monetizing its business and, in 3.25 short years, has gone from losing -$976 million to make $8.4 billion in the TTM for an increase of $9.38 billion. FB has produced $37.34 billion in profit in the TTM, and its net income grew by $15.23 billion over this period. Using growth doesn&#39;t support the valuation when FB has a market cap that&#39;s $382.30 less than TSLA and grew its profits in this period by almost double what TSLA has generated in the TTM.<blockquote>接下来，我将转向利润，因为归根结底，企业是在赚钱。TSLA再次在业务货币化方面做得非常出色，在短短3.25年内，TTM从亏损9.76亿美元增至84亿美元，增加了93.8亿美元。FB在TTM创造了373.4亿美元的利润，净利润在此期间增长了152.3亿美元。当FB的市值比TSLA低382.30美元，并且在此期间的利润增长几乎是TSLA在TTM中的两倍时，使用增长并不能支持估值。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9716477607711ee0b6d4f77eb24c890\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛，寻求阿尔法</blockquote>The new metric bulls are using in their thesis is TSLA&#39;s free cash flow (FCF). Once again, TSLA has done an excellent job, going from -$221 million of FCF in 2018 to $6.93 billion of FCF in the TTM. Many companies would love to grow their annual FCF by $7.15 billion over a 3.25-year period, and this should be applauded.<blockquote>多头在论文中使用的新指标是特斯拉的自由现金流（FCF）。TSLA再次表现出色，从2018年的-2.21亿美元自由现金流增至TTM的69.3亿美元自由现金流。许多公司希望在3.25年内将其年度自由现金流增加71.5亿美元，这应该受到赞扬。</blockquote>Let&#39;s look at FB once again, since TSLA&#39;s valuation isn&#39;t based on its core segment as an automobile manufacturer. FB has grown its FCF over the previous 3.25 years by $23.45 billion, more than 3x TSLA&#39;s growth, and has generated $39.81 billion of FCF in the TTM. FB generated roughly 5.75x more FCF than TSLA and grew its FCF by more than 3x what TSLA produces, yet FB has a market cap that&#39;s almost $400 billion less than TSLA. Growth within the financials does not support TSLA&#39;s valuation, which is a breath away from $1 trillion.<blockquote>让我们再次看看FB，因为TSLA的估值并不是基于其作为汽车制造商的核心细分市场。FB的FCF在过去3.25年中增长了234.5亿美元，是TSLA增长的3倍多，并在TTM中产生了398.1亿美元的FCF。FB产生的自由现金流大约是TSLA的5.75倍，其自由现金流增长是TSLA的3倍多，但FB的市值比TSLA少近4000亿美元。金融界的增长并不能支撑TSLA的估值，该估值距离1万亿美元仅一步之遥。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/902a7074eda9e8f2f2765e0833423d2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Steven Fiorillo, Seeking Alpha<blockquote>史蒂文·菲奥里洛，寻求阿尔法</blockquote>Today you&#39;re paying a 113.81 P/E for TSLA. Paying a larger multiple for a company that&#39;s growing its earnings quickly is normal, but TSLA isn&#39;t growing by larger amounts than FB, and FB trades at a 16.66 P/E. I have seen TSLA bulls justify the P/E because of TSLA&#39;s growth factor, but this doesn&#39;t hold up when FB has grown by larger amounts from larger starting positions and has a P/E that&#39;s a fraction of TSLA. Look at AAPL, which is the largest company in the world. AAPL has grown its net income by $56.25 billion and its FCF by $52.3 billion over the past 3.25 years, and its P/E is 26.78. People are blindly paying any multiple the market places on TSLA.<blockquote>今天，您为TSLA支付的市盈率为113.81。为一家盈利快速增长的公司支付更高的市盈率是正常的，但TSLA的增长幅度并不比FB大，FB的市盈率为16.66。我见过TSLA多头因为TSLA的增长因素而证明市盈率是合理的，但当FB从较大的起始头寸增长了更多并且市盈率只是TSLA的一小部分时，这就不成立了。看看AAPL，它是世界上最大的公司。过去3.25年，AAPL的净利润增长了562.5亿美元，自由现金流增长了523亿美元，市盈率为26.78。人们盲目地支付特斯拉市场份额的任何倍数。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75168f6e39ced721cf0c53d78481a983\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TSLA is trading at a 15.38 P/S. The justification for this multiple is difficult to defend while AMZN trades at a P/S of 11.31. AMZN&#39;s revenue grew by $341.76 billion over the past 3.25 years while TSLA grew their revenue by $40.73 billion. Instead of an absolute basis, looking at this from a percentage aspect, TSLA grew its revenue by 189.78%, while AMZN&#39;s grew by 251.32%. The P/S ratio is not a supporting valuation metric as TSLA is trading at a larger multiple than AMZN yet produced $301.03 billion less in revenue growth compared to AMZN. At the very least, TSLA should trade at a lower P/S multiple than AMZN considering their revenue growth was a fraction of AMZN&#39;s.<blockquote>TSLA的交易价格为15.38 P/S。当AMZN的市盈率为11.31时，这一市盈率的合理性很难辩护。过去3.25年，AMZN的收入增长了3417.6亿美元，而TSLA的收入增长了407.3亿美元。从百分比来看，特斯拉的收入增长了189.78%，而亚马逊的收入增长了251.32%，而不是绝对基数。市盈率并不是一个支持性的估值指标，因为TSLA的市盈率高于AMZN，但与AMZN相比，其收入增长却少了3010.3亿美元。至少，考虑到特斯拉的收入增长只是亚马逊的一小部分，特斯拉的市盈率应该低于亚马逊。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aad00a6c490808962705a1a2dae45cfe\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TSLA has done an excellent job monetizing its revenue, delivering exceptional margins, and generating FCF. Now that TSLA is generating billions in FCF, it&#39;s been inserted into the bull thesis. FCF is a measure of profitability that excludes the non-cash expenses of the income statement and includes spending on equipment and assets as well as changes in working capital from the balance sheet. FCF could be the most underrated and most important financial metric to look at, as this is the pool of capital that companies can utilize to repay debt, pay dividends, buy back shares, make acquisitions, or reinvest in the business.<blockquote>特斯拉在收入货币化、提供卓越的利润率和产生自由现金流方面做得非常出色。现在，特斯拉正在产生数十亿美元的自由现金流，它已被纳入牛市论点。FCF是衡量盈利能力的指标，不包括损益表中的非现金费用，包括设备和资产支出以及资产负债表中营运资本的变化。自由现金流可能是最被低估和最重要的财务指标，因为这是公司可以用来偿还债务、支付股息、回购股票、进行收购或对业务进行再投资的资本池。</blockquote>Every investment is the present value of all future cash flow. This is why investors look at the price to FCF valuation. Investors want to pay the cheapest multiple for a company&#39;s FCF. Today, you&#39;re paying 142.52x TSLA&#39;s FCF. Going back to the FCF section, TSLA grew its FCF by $7.15 billion over the past 3.25 years. FB generated $23.45 billion of FCF in this period, which is 3x the amount TSLA grew, yet FB is trading at a 15.19x multiple on price to FCF.<blockquote>每一项投资都是未来所有现金流的现值。这就是为什么投资者关注自由现金流估值的价格。投资者希望为公司的自由现金流支付最便宜的倍数。今天，您支付的是TSLA自由现金流的142.52倍。回到自由现金流部分，TSLA的自由现金流在过去3.25年中增长了71.5亿美元。FB在此期间产生了234.5亿美元的FCF，是TSLA增长金额的3倍，但FB的市盈率是FCF的15.19倍。</blockquote>Why on earth would you want to pay 142.52x for TSLA&#39;s FCF when you could pay 15.19x for FB, which is growing their FCF by more than 3x the amount that TSLA is growing by? How about AAPL? AAPL grew its FCF by $52.3 billion and trades at a 25.4x price to FCF. If I exclude FB for a moment, should TSLA trade at a larger FCF multiple than GOOGL, which has grown its FCF by $46.15 billion over the past 3.25 years? My answer is no because there is no guarantee that TSLA will ever generate $46.15 billion in annual FCF, let alone the $68.99 billion in FCF that GOOGL generates.<blockquote>当您可以为FB支付15.19倍的FCF时，您究竟为什么要为TSLA的FCF支付142.52倍的费用，而FB的FCF增长速度是TSLA增长速度的3倍以上？苹果公司怎么样？AAPL的自由现金流增加了523亿美元，交易价格是自由现金流的25.4倍。如果我暂时排除FB，TSLA的自由现金流倍数是否应该高于GOOGL，后者的自由现金流在过去3.25年中增长了461.5亿美元？我的答案是否定的，因为无法保证特斯拉每年能够产生461.5亿美元的自由现金流，更不用说GOOGL产生的689.9亿美元的自由现金流了。</blockquote>So what is a fair price to FCF multiple for TSLA? I don&#39;t believe TSLA has earned the right to trade at the same multiples as the rest of big tech considering the levels of FCF they produce. If I stick with the methodology that FB is egregiously undervalued, then TSLA should trade above 15.19x its FCF but lower than the 23.42x multiple GOOGL trades at.<blockquote>那么TSLA的FCF倍数的合理价格是多少呢？考虑到它们产生的自由现金流水平，我认为特斯拉没有赢得与其他大型科技公司相同倍数的交易权利。如果我坚持FB被严重低估的方法论，那么TSLA的交易价格应该高于其FCF的15.19倍，但低于GOOGL交易价格的23.42倍。</blockquote>I don&#39;t want to be overly bearish, so I will place a 21x multiple on TSLA&#39;s FCF, which is more than fair considering big tech metrics. A 21x multiple on TSLA&#39;s FCF puts its market cap at $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion. It&#39;s just math, and if TSLA is going to be valued as a technology company, it needs to be compared to the technology companies with similar market caps.<blockquote>我不想过于悲观，因此我将TSLA的自由现金流设定为21倍，考虑到大型科技指标，这是非常公平的。TSLA自由现金流的21倍使其市值达到1454.3亿美元，较目前9869.2亿美元的市值下降了-85.26%。这只是数学问题，如果特斯拉要作为一家科技公司进行估值，就需要与市值相似的科技公司进行比较。</blockquote>At the very least, there isn&#39;t a single reason why TSLA&#39;s market cap is larger than FB&#39;s. There isn&#39;t a single metric that TSLA beats FB in. Based on FB&#39;s valuation, if TSLA traded at the same FCF multiple, it would have a market cap of $105.19 billion.<blockquote>至少，TSLA的市值大于FB的原因并不是单一的。TSLA没有一个指标能击败FB。根据FB的估值，如果TSLA以相同的FCF倍数交易，其市值将达到1051.9亿美元。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b81a61d60d9ec098276569cc4a501da0\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>TSLA has a gross profit margin of 27.1% ($16.85b / $62.19b) and a profit margin of 13.51% ($8.4b / $62.19b). FB has a gross profit margin of 80.34% ($96.14b / $119.67b) and a profit margin of 31.2% ($37.34b / $119.67b). FB has much wider margins and is growing its revenue by larger amounts. This reinforces my methodology as to why TSLA is grossly overvalued. GOOGL has a gross profit margin of 56.93% ($153.9b / $270.33b) and a profit margin of 27.57% ($74.54b / $270.33b).<blockquote>TSLA的毛利率为27.1%（$16.85 B/$62.19 B），利润率为13.51%（$8.4 B/$62.19 B）。FB的毛利率为80.34%（$96.14 B/$119.67 B），利润率为31.2%（$37.34 B/$119.67 B）。FB的利润率要高得多，收入也在大幅增长。这强化了我关于为什么特斯拉被严重高估的方法论。GOOGL的毛利率为56.93%（$153.9 B/$270.33 B），利润率为27.57%（$745.4 B/$270.33 B）。</blockquote>The chances are incredibly slim that TSLA can double its profit margin to be within striking distance of GOOGL&#39;s. TSLA should not trade at a larger FCF, P/E, or P/S multiple than FB or GOOGL. While the market would indicate that I am wrong today, eventually, the hype will wear off, and TSLA will trade at a realistic valuation.<blockquote>特斯拉将利润率提高一倍，与GOOGL相提并论的可能性微乎其微。TSLA的自由现金流、市盈率或市盈率不应高于FB或GOOGL。虽然市场今天会表明我错了，但最终，炒作将会消退，特斯拉将以现实的估值进行交易。</blockquote>TSLA&#39;s Future Catalysts Have A Long Way To Go Before Impacting Its Bottom Line<blockquote>特斯拉未来的催化剂在影响其利润之前还有很长的路要走</blockquote>There are three main catalysts people discuss, which include insurance, robotaxis, and FSD.TSLA offers insurance using real-time driving behavior. This is currently available to all Model S, Model 3, Model X, and Model Y owners. The catch is that it&#39;s only available in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Ohio, Oregon, Texas, and Virginia as of now.<blockquote>人们讨论的催化剂主要有三个，包括保险、机器人出租车和FSD.TSLA使用实时驾驶行为提供保险。目前，所有Model S、Model 3、Model X和Model Y车主均可使用该功能。问题是，目前它仅在亚利桑那州、科罗拉多州、伊利诺伊州、俄亥俄州、俄勒冈州、德克萨斯州和弗吉尼亚州可用。</blockquote>TSLA uses a safety rating score to determine the monthly premium for its vehicles. At the largest premium of $130/mo, this would be $1,560 per year. If TSLA converted 100% of their U.S sales in 2021 as an insurance customer, which I think could be possible if TSLA insurance was available in every state, it would have generated $471.12 million in revenue.<blockquote>特斯拉使用安全评级分数来确定其车辆的每月保费。以130美元/月的最大保费计算，每年为1,560美元。如果TSLA在2021年将其在美国的销售额100%转化为保险客户（我认为如果每个州都提供TSLA保险，这是可能的），那么它将产生4.7112亿美元的收入。</blockquote>We have no idea what the margins would have been, but if the margin was 50%, it would have been an additional $235.56 million in net income in 2021. While this is nothing to sneeze at, an additional $235.56 million in net income hardly moves the needle. This could be a $1 billion top-line revenue segment in the future, but with availability in only 7 states, insurance&#39;s $1 billion revenue mark is a long way away.<blockquote>我们不知道利润率是多少，但如果利润率为50%，2021年净利润将增加2.3556亿美元。虽然这不容小觑，但额外的2.3556亿美元净利润几乎没有什么影响。这可能是未来10亿美元的营收部分，但由于仅在7个州提供服务，保险业10亿美元的收入大关还有很长的路要走。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e86de6232b9abf7cee46a9607eb09741\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Tesla<blockquote>特斯拉</blockquote>Next,FSD, for which TSLA has created two subscription models, a $99/mo price point and a $199/mo price point. The problem with FSD is that it doesn&#39;t make the vehicle fully autonomous, and you still need a driver to be attentive and alert. While I am not arguing that TSLA&#39;s FSD isn&#39;t leaps and bounds ahead of the competition, the problem is that it&#39;s not exactly a self-driving car.<blockquote>接下来是FSD，TSLA为其创建了两种订阅模式，99美元/月的价格点和199美元/月的价格点。FSD的问题在于，它不能使车辆完全自动驾驶，您仍然需要驾驶员保持专注和警觉。虽然我并不是说TSLA的FSD没有在竞争中遥遥领先，但问题是它并不完全是自动驾驶汽车。</blockquote>The questions around legality and where you can use it pop into my head, and how many of TSLA&#39;s drivers opt for this upgrade. Until there is clear legislation and the technology advances to where vehicles can fully drive a person from point A to B while that person takes a nap or reads, I have a hard time believing enough TSLA owners will spend the extra $199/mo on FSD. If there is somewhere where TSLA produces the numbers about how many owners opt for this package, please let me know, and I will crunch the numbers.<blockquote>有关合法性和在哪里可以使用它的问题突然出现在我的脑海中，以及有多少TSLA的司机选择了这种升级。在有明确的立法和技术进步到车辆可以在一个人午睡或阅读的时候完全驾驶一个人从A点到B点之前，我很难相信有足够多的TSLA车主会在FSD上额外花费199美元/月。如果TSLA在某个地方提供了有关有多少车主选择此套餐的数据，请让我知道，我将处理这些数据。</blockquote>Which Features Come With My Subscription?<blockquote>我的订阅附带哪些功能？</blockquote>The FSD capability features you receive are based on your configuration and location. Not all features are available in all markets, and features are subject to change.Learn more about Autopilot and Full Self-Driving capability features.Note: These features are designed to become more capable over time; however the currently enabled features do not make the vehicle autonomous. The currently enabled features require a fully attentive driver, who has their hands on the wheel and is prepared to take over at any moment.The last catalyst is Robotaxis which many have commented on in my articles before. We&#39;re so far off on Robotaxis that this can&#39;t be considered in TSLA&#39;s upcoming revenue. I would think major legislation would be needed for Robotaxis to exist, and there is no telling how many years away we are from this.<blockquote>您收到的FSD功能基于您的配置和位置。并非所有功能在所有市场都可用，并且功能可能会发生变化。了解有关Autopilot和全自动驾驶功能的更多信息。注意：这些功能旨在随着时间的推移变得更强大；然而，当前启用的特征并不能使车辆自主。目前启用的功能需要一个全神贯注的驾驶员，他的手放在方向盘上，随时准备接管。最后一个催化剂是机器人出租车，许多人在我之前的文章中评论过。我们在机器人出租车方面的差距太大，以至于不能在特斯拉即将到来的收入中考虑这一点。我认为机器人出租车的存在需要重大立法，而且不知道我们还需要多少年。</blockquote>Also, what is the percentage of TSLA owners that would actually allow their vehicle to be used as a Robotaxi? Depending on what the profitability is, I can see people buying TSLAs to enroll them in this program, but, once again, we need to see the economics behind it. I know I am just one opinion, but I would never enroll one of my cars into a robotaxi program because I don&#39;t want other people that I don&#39;t know in my car. I would think there are many others that have similar viewpoints.<blockquote>另外，真正允许他们的车辆用作机器人出租车的TSLA车主比例是多少？根据盈利能力，我可以看到人们购买特斯拉来加入这个计划，但是，我们需要再次看到其背后的经济学。我知道我只是一种观点，但我永远不会让我的一辆车加入机器人出租车计划，因为我不想让我不认识的其他人在我的车里。我想还有很多人有类似的观点。</blockquote>The real upcoming catalysts are future revenue growth and entering the Chinese market. In 2021 TSLA grew its YoY revenue by 70.67%, and their off to a great start after Q1 2022. Only time will tell what type of growth rate TSLA can maintain, but too many people are assuming that TSLA will obliterate the competition. Over the next several years, we could see TSLA&#39;s growth rate become significantly reduced as more luxury operators put EVs on the road.<blockquote>真正即将到来的催化剂是未来的收入增长和进入中国市场。2021年，特斯拉收入同比增长70.67%，在2022年第一季度之后取得了良好的开端。只有时间才能证明特斯拉能够保持什么样的增长率，但太多人认为特斯拉将消灭竞争对手。在接下来的几年里，随着更多的豪华运营商将电动汽车上路，我们可能会看到特斯拉的增长率大幅下降。</blockquote>At TSLA&#39;s current margins, they would need to increase their revenue by 444.55% to $276.47 billion to produce the same amount of net income ($37.34b) that FB produces today at their current 13.51% profit margin. Maybe TSLA can get there in the future, but why should TSLA be valued at almost $1 trillion today, considering not a single metric of theirs is similar to FB or GOOGL, and TSLA&#39;s growth across any of the sectors isn&#39;t larger than FB or GOOGL?<blockquote>按照TSLA目前的利润率，他们需要将收入增加444.55%，达到2,764.7亿美元，才能产生与FB目前13.51%利润率相同的净利润($37.34 B)。也许TSLA未来可以实现这一目标，但为什么TSLA今天的估值应该接近1万亿美元，因为他们没有一个指标与FB或GOOGL相似，而且TSLA在任何领域的增长都不比FB或GOOGL大？</blockquote>Tesla Continues To Dilute Shareholders, And Almost No Shareholders Care<blockquote>特斯拉不断稀释股东，几乎没有股东关心</blockquote>Dilution kills shareholder value. Look, I am a shareholder of TSLA, and I hate that my shares continue to be diluted. These numbers are split-adjusted that I am using. Over the past decade,TSLA has diluted its shares by 80.93%. This is horrible compared to big tech, yet investors can&#39;t buy enough TSLA shares. TSLA finished 2012 with 572.6 million shares and, as of its last filing, had increased its outstanding shares to 1.036 billion shares.<blockquote>稀释会扼杀股东价值。听着，我是特斯拉的股东，我讨厌我的股份继续被稀释。这些数字是我正在使用的分割调整的。过去十年，TSLA的股份稀释了80.93%。与大型科技公司相比，这是可怕的，但投资者无法购买足够的特斯拉股票。截至2012年底，特斯拉持有5.726亿股股票，截至上次提交文件，其流通股已增至10.36亿股。</blockquote>This is the equivalent of me taking a pizza, and instead of giving you a slice, cutting another 6.5 slices, then giving you one. The pizza represents TSLA, the company, and they basically turned an 8-slice pie into a 14.5-slice pie, reducing shareholder&#39;s ownership and the amount of equity, revenue, and EPS our shares represent.<blockquote>这相当于我拿了一个披萨，不是给你一片，而是再切6.5片，然后给你一片。披萨代表TSLA公司，他们基本上将8片馅饼变成了14.5片馅饼，减少了股东所有权以及我们的股票所代表的股本、收入和每股收益。</blockquote>If you want to see what a true shepherd of shareholder value looks like, turn to AAPL. In 2012 AAPL had 26.3 billion shares outstanding. Over the past decade, AAPL has repurchased 10.09 billion shares, reducing its outstanding shares by 38.37%. Every quarter, AAPL is buying back shares and increasing the ownership its shares represent. TSLA, on the other hand, continues to dilute shareholders by increasing shares YOY.<blockquote>如果您想了解真正的股东价值牧羊人是什么样子，请转向AAPL。2012年，AAPL拥有263亿股已发行股票。过去十年，AAPL回购了100.9亿股，流通股减少了38.37%。每个季度，苹果公司都会回购股票并增加其股票所代表的所有权。另一方面，特斯拉继续通过同比增持来稀释股东权益。</blockquote>I Could Be Completely Wrong, And Tesla Could Continue Growing At These Rates<blockquote>我可能完全错了，特斯拉可能会继续以这样的速度增长</blockquote>TSLA&#39;s vehicle deliveries continue to outpace its growing production. YoY TSLA&#39;s deliveries increased by 68% in Q1, adding 125,171 delivered vehicles to its customers. TSLA just began Model Y deliveries from the Austin facility, and production at the Gigafactory in Berlin started in March of 2022. TSLA&#39;s Shanghai facility had strong production rates prior to the spike in COVID that resulted in temporary shutdowns. TSLA isn&#39;t just focusing on the U.S, they have Europe and China in their sights.<blockquote>特斯拉的汽车交付量继续超过其产量增长速度。特斯拉第一季度的交付量同比增长68%，向客户交付了125,171辆汽车。TSLA刚刚开始从奥斯汀工厂交付Model Y，柏林超级工厂的生产于2022年3月开始。在新冠疫情激增导致暂时关闭之前，特斯拉上海工厂的生产率强劲。特斯拉不仅仅关注美国，他们还将目光投向了欧洲和中国。</blockquote>EVs accounted for 488,000 sales in the U.S for 2021, and the previous projection was that EVs would account for 670,000 units sold in 2022. Oil has hovered around $100 per barrel and could render the previous projections of 37% increased EV sales domestically for 2022 conservative. TSLA is in a prime position to capitalize on this trend. In 2021 TSLA vehicles accounted for 61.89% of EVs sold in the U.S (301,998 / 488,000).<blockquote>2021年，电动汽车在美国的销量为488,000辆，此前的预测是2022年电动汽车的销量将达到670,000辆。油价一直徘徊在每桶100美元左右，这可能会使之前对2022年国内电动汽车销量增长37%的预测变得保守。特斯拉处于利用这一趋势的有利位置。2021年，TSLA汽车占美国电动汽车销量的61.89%（301,998/488,000辆）。</blockquote>Hypothetically, if the previous projection of 670,000 EV sales for 2022 is accurate and TSLA maintains its current margin, they would sell 414,628 vehicles throughout the U.S in 2022. If gas prices do alter the decision-making process when deciding between a combustible engine or an EV, then TSLA could continue surprising the market with QoQ earnings beats.<blockquote>假设，如果之前对2022年电动汽车销量670,000辆的预测是准确的，并且TSLA保持目前的利润率，那么2022年他们将在美国销售414,628辆汽车。如果汽油价格确实改变了在决定燃油发动机还是电动汽车时的决策过程，那么特斯拉可能会继续以季度盈利超出市场预期。</blockquote>The U.S has a national goal of reaching 50% of domestic auto sales coming from EVs. In 2021, EVs accounted for 3.26% of total sales in the U.S auto market. Based on U.S auto sales in 2021, annual EV sales would need to grow by 6,989,403 to reach a 50% EV to combustible engine ratio. Hypothetically if U.S auto sales stayed flat but EVs reached 50% of the market in 2030 they would sell 7,477,403 vehicles. If TSLA&#39;s dominance in the EV sector was to drop from 61.89% to 15% due to increased competition, they would generate 1,121,610 in sales compared to 301,998 in 2021. When you add in Europe and China, TSLA certainly has the ability to become a top auto manufacturer by sales next decade.<blockquote>美国的国家目标是电动汽车占国内汽车销量的50%。2021年，电动汽车占美国汽车市场总销量的3.26%。根据2021年美国汽车销量，电动汽车年销量需要增长6,989,403辆，才能达到电动汽车与内燃机的比例50%。假设，如果美国汽车销量持平，但电动汽车在2030年达到市场的50%，他们将售出7,477,403辆汽车。如果特斯拉在电动汽车领域的主导地位因竞争加剧而从61.89%下降至15%，那么它们的销量将为1,121,610辆，而2021年为301,998辆。如果加上欧洲和中国，特斯拉当然有能力在未来十年成为销量第一的汽车制造商。</blockquote>Bulls aren&#39;t incorrect to be excited about TSLA. The world is moving toward EVs, and TSLA is the crème de la crème. As I said in the beginning, I am bullish about TSLA&#39;s future prospects, but I think the valuation today is overinflated. Nobody can predict the future, but I have no doubt that TSLA will continue to grow its sales YoY.<blockquote>多头对特斯拉感到兴奋并没有错。世界正在走向电动汽车，而TSLA是其中的佼佼者。正如我一开始所说，我看好TSLA的未来前景，但我认为今天的估值被夸大了。没有人能预测未来，但我毫不怀疑特斯拉的销量将继续同比增长。</blockquote>The question becomes, how much growth will they be able to achieve YoY? In 2021, TM generated $226.48 billion of revenue and, based on the future of EVs, TSLA certainly could achieve this level of revenue in the future. Based on TSLA&#39;s current 13.51% profit margin, if they achieved TM&#39;s level of revenue, they would generate $30.59 billion of net income, which would definitely make today&#39;s valuation look more realistic.<blockquote>问题变成了，他们能够实现多少同比增长？2021年，TM创造了2264.8亿美元的收入，基于电动汽车的未来，TSLA未来肯定可以达到这一收入水平。基于TSLA目前13.51%的利润率，如果他们达到TM的收入水平，他们将产生305.9亿美元的净利润，这肯定会让今天的估值看起来更加现实。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c9176fa9bebc2c940e038cafd23229\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Tesla<blockquote>特斯拉</blockquote>Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote>You&#39;re probably wondering how I can be a shareholder and be a bear on TSLA&#39;s valuation at the same time. It&#39;s simple; my wife bought shares of TSLA, which makes me a shareholder. My stance has always been bullish on the company and bearish on the valuation. What Elon Musk and the team at TSLA has accomplished is astonishing, and they deserve nothing but respect.<blockquote>你可能想知道我怎么能既是股东又看跌特斯拉估值。很简单；我的妻子购买了特斯拉的股票，这使我成为股东。我的立场一直是看多公司，看空估值。埃隆·马斯克和特斯拉团队所取得的成就令人惊叹，他们只值得尊重。</blockquote>Keep in mind a company and a company&#39;s stock are two separate things. TSLA continues to dilute shareholders, and they and the market are valuing TSLA as if it&#39;s FB or GOOGL. TSLA is not a technology company; it&#39;s an automobile company, as the automotive segments drive 100% of its gross revenue and net income.<blockquote>请记住，公司和公司的股票是两回事。特斯拉继续稀释股东权益，他们和市场对特斯拉的估值就好像它是FB或GOOGL一样。TSLA不是一家科技公司；它是一家汽车公司，因为汽车部门占其总收入和净利润的100%。</blockquote>TSLA is trading at a P/E of 113.81, a P/S of 15.38, and a 142.52x multiple on its FCF. The numbers are drastically inflated as TSLA has no business trading at a larger P/S multiple than AMZN, which trades at 11.31 P/S when it has grown its revenue by $341.76 billion over the previous 3.25 years compared to TSLA&#39;s $40.73 billion of revenue growth. TSLA has generated $6.93 billion in FCF over the TTM, while Mr. Market has placed a 142.52x multiple on TSLA due to $7.15 billion FCF growth over the past 3.25 years. FB trades at a 15.19x FCF multiple while growing FCF by $23.45 billion over this period which is more than 3x what TSLA has generated in the TTM.<blockquote>TSLA的市盈率为113.81倍，市盈率为15.38倍，自由现金流倍数为142.52倍。这些数字被严重夸大了，因为TSLA的市盈率没有比AMZN更高的业务，AMZN的市盈率为11.31，而TSLA的收入在过去3.25年中增长了3,417.6亿美元，而TSLA的收入增长为407.3亿美元。TSLA通过TTM产生了69.3亿美元的自由现金流，而Mr由于过去3.25年FCF增长71.5亿美元，市场对TSLA的评级为142.52倍。FB的FCF市盈率为15.19倍，而在此期间FCF增长了234.5亿美元，是TSLA在TTM中产生的3倍多。</blockquote>With FB trading at 15.19x FCF, GOOGL at 23.42x FCF, and AAPL at 25.4x FCF, it&#39;s hard to justify any number above 20x for TSLA. I think a 21x FCF multiple is generous and that places TSLA at a market cap of $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion.<blockquote>FB的交易价格为15.19倍FCF，GOOGL为23.42倍FCF，AAPL为25.4倍FCF，因此很难证明TSLA的任何高于20倍的数字是合理的。我认为21倍的自由现金流倍数是慷慨的，这使得TSLA的市值达到1,454.3亿美元，比目前9,869.2亿美元的市值下降了-85.26%。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4507535-tesla-overvalued-by-85-26-percent-and-not-a-technology-company\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4507535-tesla-overvalued-by-85-26-percent-and-not-a-technology-company","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131831539","content_text":"SummaryMake no mistake, Tesla is a phenomenal company that has accomplished the unthinkable as it broke through extreme barriers of entry to disrupt the auto industry.Just because Tesla is a successful company that is causing automotive titans to change from combustible engines to EVs doesn't mean Tesla's stock is a good investment today.100% of gross profit and net income is generated from the automotive sector as Tesla's other businesses lose money, making them an automobile manufacturing company, not a technology company.I compared Tesla's metrics to the auto industry and big tech and the results are the same, Tesla's valuation is egregious.It's rare to find companies that have cult-like followings with loyalists willing to pay any price for its stock. The debate regarding Tesla, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:TSLA) valuation continues to be a topic of conversation between the bulls and the bears. Oneside argues that TSLA's financial growth and future prospects, including FSD, insurance, and robotaxis, justify the current $902.12 billion valuations, while others argue that the current financials and cult-like following have led to a massive overvaluation in TSLA's stock.I tip my hat to Elon Musk, as his accomplishments are second to none. When others called him crazy, Mr. Musk chose one of the hardest industries to compete in, started TSLA from the ground up, went to battle against the auto manufacturers, and succeeded. TSLA is one of the rare success stories that has truly shaped an industry, and the barriers of entry that were overcome are astonishing. TSLA didn't have the capital, manufacturing, credibility, or the infrastructure that its competitors did, yet they found a way to succeed. If the odds weren't enough which TSLA faced, they accomplished their goals without a combustible engine and pioneered an entirely new sector within the automotive industry.Just because TSLA is a great company, it doesn't mean TSLA has a great stock, or it isn't overvalued. I am not bearish on TSLA the company because I believe they still have a long runway of growth ahead of them, but I am bearish on the valuation. Prior to leaving a comment on why I am wrong, please read the article and think about the metrics I am citing; then, I will happily discuss any viewpoints about the analysis.Tesla Vs. The World In The Automotive SectorIt feels like TSLA vs. the world whenever TSLA is discussed. Discussing who makes a better automobile is a matter of opinion, and everyone is correct because it's their opinion. If person A thinks TSLA makes the best car and person B thinks Mercedes Benz makes the best car, they are both correct. Debating over this is pointless, so let's look at the raw numbers.TSLA has a larger market cap than the combination ofToyota(TM),Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY),Daimler(OTCPK:DDAIF),BMW(OTCPK:BMWYY),General Motors(GM),Ford(F),Honda(HMC),Ferrari(RACE),Nissan(OTCPK:NSANY),Subaru(OTCPK:FUJHY),Volvo(OTCPK:VOLAF), andMazda(OTCPK:MZDAY). TSLA's market cap is currently $986.92 billion, while the combination of these 12 companies is $777.41 billion.Steven FiorilloThe P/S ratio is often cited to justify the valuation. The combination of TM, VWAGY, DDAIF, BMWYY, GM, F, HMC, RACE, NSANY, FUJHY, VOLAF, and MZDAY has generated $1.38 trillion in revenue over the TTM, putting their P/S at 0.56, while TSLA has generated $62.19 billion in revenue and has a 15.87 P/S.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaAs a combined entity, these 12 companies have generated $118.29 billion in net income, while TSLA has produced $8.4 billion.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaTSLA is a great company, but its current valuation has become overly inflated. TSLA's market cap is $209.52 billion larger than these 12 auto manufacturers, yet the combination of the 12 auto manufacturers generates $1.32 trillion more in revenue and $109.89 billion more in net income.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaLooking at the market caps, one would assume that TSLA has a dominant majority over its competitors in auto sales within the U.S. According to the2021 data, TSLA sold 2.02% of all vehicles in the U.S. TSLA's market cap reflects a level of dominance that is non-existent.Realistically, TSLA will have a hard time disrupting the sector further due to the price point of their vehicles. The reality is that, unless TSLA can sell a car that rivals a Honda or Toyota, doubling its market share is going to be a daunting task. It's just math. TSLA doesn't have a product for the masses, and while it may continue to grow in the luxury segment, the amount of growth that can be achieved is limited due to the pricing power of the consumer.www.goodcarbadcar.netTesla Isn't A Technology Company And Shouldn't Be Valued As OneThe valuation rebuttal has always been that TSLA isn't an automobile company, rather, it's a technology company.TeslaPage 23 ofTSLA's Q1 2022 slide deck from their earnings call is their statement of operations. Once again, 100% of TSLA's gross profit and net income are derived from automobiles. Energy generation and storage lose money as it generates $616 million in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $688 million. The same goes for Services and others, as this segment generates $1.279 billion in revenue while the cost of this revenue is $1.286 billion. This doesn't even factor in operating expenses.TSLA manufacturers state of the art automobiles, but this doesn't classify them as a technology company, nor should they be classified as one. Since this is always the rebuttal and technology companies trade at larger earnings multiples, I will compare TSLA to Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), and Meta Platforms (FB) and illustrate why TSLA is still drastically overvalued if the market was still to provide it with a tech multiple.Prior to the comparisons, I want to frame the analysis by providing each company's market cap:AAPL $2.69 TrillionMSFT $2.17 TrillionGOOGL $1.62 TrillionAMZN $1.28 TrillionTSLA $986.92 BillionFB $604.62 BillionI am going to start with growth because this is always the key metric bulls point out. Since the close of 2018, which is 3.25 fiscal years, TSLA has grown its revenue from $21.46 billion to $62.19 billion.This is absolutely remarkable, but it doesn't place TSLA in the upper epsilon of technology companies. Over the same period, FB grew its revenue by $63.83 billion, which is more than what TSLA produced in the TTM. FB grew its revenue by more than what TSLA produces and generates just about double the revenue ($119.67 billion), yet TSLA has a larger market cap. For everyone who has used growth as their investment premise, FB having a market cap that's $382.30 less than TSLA nullifies that aspect of the bull thesis. AMZN's market cap is only $294.33 billion larger than TSLA, yet they generated $477.75 billion in revenue and grew their revenue by $341.76 billion in this period. Using revenue growth for TSLA doesn't support the valuation.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaNext, I will turn to profits because, at the end of the day, businesses are in the business of making money. Once again, TSLA has done a fantastic job of monetizing its business and, in 3.25 short years, has gone from losing -$976 million to make $8.4 billion in the TTM for an increase of $9.38 billion. FB has produced $37.34 billion in profit in the TTM, and its net income grew by $15.23 billion over this period. Using growth doesn't support the valuation when FB has a market cap that's $382.30 less than TSLA and grew its profits in this period by almost double what TSLA has generated in the TTM.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaThe new metric bulls are using in their thesis is TSLA's free cash flow (FCF). Once again, TSLA has done an excellent job, going from -$221 million of FCF in 2018 to $6.93 billion of FCF in the TTM. Many companies would love to grow their annual FCF by $7.15 billion over a 3.25-year period, and this should be applauded.Let's look at FB once again, since TSLA's valuation isn't based on its core segment as an automobile manufacturer. FB has grown its FCF over the previous 3.25 years by $23.45 billion, more than 3x TSLA's growth, and has generated $39.81 billion of FCF in the TTM. FB generated roughly 5.75x more FCF than TSLA and grew its FCF by more than 3x what TSLA produces, yet FB has a market cap that's almost $400 billion less than TSLA. Growth within the financials does not support TSLA's valuation, which is a breath away from $1 trillion.Steven Fiorillo, Seeking AlphaToday you're paying a 113.81 P/E for TSLA. Paying a larger multiple for a company that's growing its earnings quickly is normal, but TSLA isn't growing by larger amounts than FB, and FB trades at a 16.66 P/E. I have seen TSLA bulls justify the P/E because of TSLA's growth factor, but this doesn't hold up when FB has grown by larger amounts from larger starting positions and has a P/E that's a fraction of TSLA. Look at AAPL, which is the largest company in the world. AAPL has grown its net income by $56.25 billion and its FCF by $52.3 billion over the past 3.25 years, and its P/E is 26.78. People are blindly paying any multiple the market places on TSLA.TSLA is trading at a 15.38 P/S. The justification for this multiple is difficult to defend while AMZN trades at a P/S of 11.31. AMZN's revenue grew by $341.76 billion over the past 3.25 years while TSLA grew their revenue by $40.73 billion. Instead of an absolute basis, looking at this from a percentage aspect, TSLA grew its revenue by 189.78%, while AMZN's grew by 251.32%. The P/S ratio is not a supporting valuation metric as TSLA is trading at a larger multiple than AMZN yet produced $301.03 billion less in revenue growth compared to AMZN. At the very least, TSLA should trade at a lower P/S multiple than AMZN considering their revenue growth was a fraction of AMZN's.TSLA has done an excellent job monetizing its revenue, delivering exceptional margins, and generating FCF. Now that TSLA is generating billions in FCF, it's been inserted into the bull thesis. FCF is a measure of profitability that excludes the non-cash expenses of the income statement and includes spending on equipment and assets as well as changes in working capital from the balance sheet. FCF could be the most underrated and most important financial metric to look at, as this is the pool of capital that companies can utilize to repay debt, pay dividends, buy back shares, make acquisitions, or reinvest in the business.Every investment is the present value of all future cash flow. This is why investors look at the price to FCF valuation. Investors want to pay the cheapest multiple for a company's FCF. Today, you're paying 142.52x TSLA's FCF. Going back to the FCF section, TSLA grew its FCF by $7.15 billion over the past 3.25 years. FB generated $23.45 billion of FCF in this period, which is 3x the amount TSLA grew, yet FB is trading at a 15.19x multiple on price to FCF.Why on earth would you want to pay 142.52x for TSLA's FCF when you could pay 15.19x for FB, which is growing their FCF by more than 3x the amount that TSLA is growing by? How about AAPL? AAPL grew its FCF by $52.3 billion and trades at a 25.4x price to FCF. If I exclude FB for a moment, should TSLA trade at a larger FCF multiple than GOOGL, which has grown its FCF by $46.15 billion over the past 3.25 years? My answer is no because there is no guarantee that TSLA will ever generate $46.15 billion in annual FCF, let alone the $68.99 billion in FCF that GOOGL generates.So what is a fair price to FCF multiple for TSLA? I don't believe TSLA has earned the right to trade at the same multiples as the rest of big tech considering the levels of FCF they produce. If I stick with the methodology that FB is egregiously undervalued, then TSLA should trade above 15.19x its FCF but lower than the 23.42x multiple GOOGL trades at.I don't want to be overly bearish, so I will place a 21x multiple on TSLA's FCF, which is more than fair considering big tech metrics. A 21x multiple on TSLA's FCF puts its market cap at $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion. It's just math, and if TSLA is going to be valued as a technology company, it needs to be compared to the technology companies with similar market caps.At the very least, there isn't a single reason why TSLA's market cap is larger than FB's. There isn't a single metric that TSLA beats FB in. Based on FB's valuation, if TSLA traded at the same FCF multiple, it would have a market cap of $105.19 billion.TSLA has a gross profit margin of 27.1% ($16.85b / $62.19b) and a profit margin of 13.51% ($8.4b / $62.19b). FB has a gross profit margin of 80.34% ($96.14b / $119.67b) and a profit margin of 31.2% ($37.34b / $119.67b). FB has much wider margins and is growing its revenue by larger amounts. This reinforces my methodology as to why TSLA is grossly overvalued. GOOGL has a gross profit margin of 56.93% ($153.9b / $270.33b) and a profit margin of 27.57% ($74.54b / $270.33b).The chances are incredibly slim that TSLA can double its profit margin to be within striking distance of GOOGL's. TSLA should not trade at a larger FCF, P/E, or P/S multiple than FB or GOOGL. While the market would indicate that I am wrong today, eventually, the hype will wear off, and TSLA will trade at a realistic valuation.TSLA's Future Catalysts Have A Long Way To Go Before Impacting Its Bottom LineThere are three main catalysts people discuss, which include insurance, robotaxis, and FSD.TSLA offers insurance using real-time driving behavior. This is currently available to all Model S, Model 3, Model X, and Model Y owners. The catch is that it's only available in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Ohio, Oregon, Texas, and Virginia as of now.TSLA uses a safety rating score to determine the monthly premium for its vehicles. At the largest premium of $130/mo, this would be $1,560 per year. If TSLA converted 100% of their U.S sales in 2021 as an insurance customer, which I think could be possible if TSLA insurance was available in every state, it would have generated $471.12 million in revenue.We have no idea what the margins would have been, but if the margin was 50%, it would have been an additional $235.56 million in net income in 2021. While this is nothing to sneeze at, an additional $235.56 million in net income hardly moves the needle. This could be a $1 billion top-line revenue segment in the future, but with availability in only 7 states, insurance's $1 billion revenue mark is a long way away.TeslaNext,FSD, for which TSLA has created two subscription models, a $99/mo price point and a $199/mo price point. The problem with FSD is that it doesn't make the vehicle fully autonomous, and you still need a driver to be attentive and alert. While I am not arguing that TSLA's FSD isn't leaps and bounds ahead of the competition, the problem is that it's not exactly a self-driving car.The questions around legality and where you can use it pop into my head, and how many of TSLA's drivers opt for this upgrade. Until there is clear legislation and the technology advances to where vehicles can fully drive a person from point A to B while that person takes a nap or reads, I have a hard time believing enough TSLA owners will spend the extra $199/mo on FSD. If there is somewhere where TSLA produces the numbers about how many owners opt for this package, please let me know, and I will crunch the numbers.Which Features Come With My Subscription?The FSD capability features you receive are based on your configuration and location. Not all features are available in all markets, and features are subject to change.Learn more about Autopilot and Full Self-Driving capability features.Note: These features are designed to become more capable over time; however the currently enabled features do not make the vehicle autonomous. The currently enabled features require a fully attentive driver, who has their hands on the wheel and is prepared to take over at any moment.The last catalyst is Robotaxis which many have commented on in my articles before. We're so far off on Robotaxis that this can't be considered in TSLA's upcoming revenue. I would think major legislation would be needed for Robotaxis to exist, and there is no telling how many years away we are from this.Also, what is the percentage of TSLA owners that would actually allow their vehicle to be used as a Robotaxi? Depending on what the profitability is, I can see people buying TSLAs to enroll them in this program, but, once again, we need to see the economics behind it. I know I am just one opinion, but I would never enroll one of my cars into a robotaxi program because I don't want other people that I don't know in my car. I would think there are many others that have similar viewpoints.The real upcoming catalysts are future revenue growth and entering the Chinese market. In 2021 TSLA grew its YoY revenue by 70.67%, and their off to a great start after Q1 2022. Only time will tell what type of growth rate TSLA can maintain, but too many people are assuming that TSLA will obliterate the competition. Over the next several years, we could see TSLA's growth rate become significantly reduced as more luxury operators put EVs on the road.At TSLA's current margins, they would need to increase their revenue by 444.55% to $276.47 billion to produce the same amount of net income ($37.34b) that FB produces today at their current 13.51% profit margin. Maybe TSLA can get there in the future, but why should TSLA be valued at almost $1 trillion today, considering not a single metric of theirs is similar to FB or GOOGL, and TSLA's growth across any of the sectors isn't larger than FB or GOOGL?Tesla Continues To Dilute Shareholders, And Almost No Shareholders CareDilution kills shareholder value. Look, I am a shareholder of TSLA, and I hate that my shares continue to be diluted. These numbers are split-adjusted that I am using. Over the past decade,TSLA has diluted its shares by 80.93%. This is horrible compared to big tech, yet investors can't buy enough TSLA shares. TSLA finished 2012 with 572.6 million shares and, as of its last filing, had increased its outstanding shares to 1.036 billion shares.This is the equivalent of me taking a pizza, and instead of giving you a slice, cutting another 6.5 slices, then giving you one. The pizza represents TSLA, the company, and they basically turned an 8-slice pie into a 14.5-slice pie, reducing shareholder's ownership and the amount of equity, revenue, and EPS our shares represent.If you want to see what a true shepherd of shareholder value looks like, turn to AAPL. In 2012 AAPL had 26.3 billion shares outstanding. Over the past decade, AAPL has repurchased 10.09 billion shares, reducing its outstanding shares by 38.37%. Every quarter, AAPL is buying back shares and increasing the ownership its shares represent. TSLA, on the other hand, continues to dilute shareholders by increasing shares YOY.I Could Be Completely Wrong, And Tesla Could Continue Growing At These RatesTSLA's vehicle deliveries continue to outpace its growing production. YoY TSLA's deliveries increased by 68% in Q1, adding 125,171 delivered vehicles to its customers. TSLA just began Model Y deliveries from the Austin facility, and production at the Gigafactory in Berlin started in March of 2022. TSLA's Shanghai facility had strong production rates prior to the spike in COVID that resulted in temporary shutdowns. TSLA isn't just focusing on the U.S, they have Europe and China in their sights.EVs accounted for 488,000 sales in the U.S for 2021, and the previous projection was that EVs would account for 670,000 units sold in 2022. Oil has hovered around $100 per barrel and could render the previous projections of 37% increased EV sales domestically for 2022 conservative. TSLA is in a prime position to capitalize on this trend. In 2021 TSLA vehicles accounted for 61.89% of EVs sold in the U.S (301,998 / 488,000).Hypothetically, if the previous projection of 670,000 EV sales for 2022 is accurate and TSLA maintains its current margin, they would sell 414,628 vehicles throughout the U.S in 2022. If gas prices do alter the decision-making process when deciding between a combustible engine or an EV, then TSLA could continue surprising the market with QoQ earnings beats.The U.S has a national goal of reaching 50% of domestic auto sales coming from EVs. In 2021, EVs accounted for 3.26% of total sales in the U.S auto market. Based on U.S auto sales in 2021, annual EV sales would need to grow by 6,989,403 to reach a 50% EV to combustible engine ratio. Hypothetically if U.S auto sales stayed flat but EVs reached 50% of the market in 2030 they would sell 7,477,403 vehicles. If TSLA's dominance in the EV sector was to drop from 61.89% to 15% due to increased competition, they would generate 1,121,610 in sales compared to 301,998 in 2021. When you add in Europe and China, TSLA certainly has the ability to become a top auto manufacturer by sales next decade.Bulls aren't incorrect to be excited about TSLA. The world is moving toward EVs, and TSLA is the crème de la crème. As I said in the beginning, I am bullish about TSLA's future prospects, but I think the valuation today is overinflated. Nobody can predict the future, but I have no doubt that TSLA will continue to grow its sales YoY.The question becomes, how much growth will they be able to achieve YoY? In 2021, TM generated $226.48 billion of revenue and, based on the future of EVs, TSLA certainly could achieve this level of revenue in the future. Based on TSLA's current 13.51% profit margin, if they achieved TM's level of revenue, they would generate $30.59 billion of net income, which would definitely make today's valuation look more realistic.TeslaConclusionYou're probably wondering how I can be a shareholder and be a bear on TSLA's valuation at the same time. It's simple; my wife bought shares of TSLA, which makes me a shareholder. My stance has always been bullish on the company and bearish on the valuation. What Elon Musk and the team at TSLA has accomplished is astonishing, and they deserve nothing but respect.Keep in mind a company and a company's stock are two separate things. TSLA continues to dilute shareholders, and they and the market are valuing TSLA as if it's FB or GOOGL. TSLA is not a technology company; it's an automobile company, as the automotive segments drive 100% of its gross revenue and net income.TSLA is trading at a P/E of 113.81, a P/S of 15.38, and a 142.52x multiple on its FCF. The numbers are drastically inflated as TSLA has no business trading at a larger P/S multiple than AMZN, which trades at 11.31 P/S when it has grown its revenue by $341.76 billion over the previous 3.25 years compared to TSLA's $40.73 billion of revenue growth. TSLA has generated $6.93 billion in FCF over the TTM, while Mr. Market has placed a 142.52x multiple on TSLA due to $7.15 billion FCF growth over the past 3.25 years. FB trades at a 15.19x FCF multiple while growing FCF by $23.45 billion over this period which is more than 3x what TSLA has generated in the TTM.With FB trading at 15.19x FCF, GOOGL at 23.42x FCF, and AAPL at 25.4x FCF, it's hard to justify any number above 20x for TSLA. I think a 21x FCF multiple is generous and that places TSLA at a market cap of $145.43 billion, which is -85.26% from its current market cap of $986.92 billion.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7400540,"gmtCreate":1651993500607,"gmtModify":1651993501466,"authorId":3581650882917100,"author":{"id":3581650882917100,"idStr":"3581650882917100","authorId":3581650882917100,"name":"WendyGoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aeb2b50cab4602df1e5f3c2c1880a1f6","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":616781361,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"},{"id":7400400,"gmtCreate":1651984908842,"gmtModify":1651984909680,"authorId":3583131237618472,"author":{"id":3583131237618472,"idStr":"3583131237618472","authorId":3583131237618472,"name":"AdrinaChow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1b867f4c2019d6ec313665b1af8431b","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":616781361,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":15,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}