Expectations Are High for This Earnings Season. Here’s What to Look For._老虎社区_美港股上老虎

Expectations Are High for This Earnings Season. Here’s What to Look For.

Barron's2021-04-13

First-quarter earnings season kicks off this week as several large U.S. banks report their results for the first three months of 2021. Expectations are high, with sales and profit forecasts rising ...

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Kt18
·2021-04-13
Hopefully market is upbeat about the result
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shaunlai
·2021-04-13
Cool
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1
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jotan
·2021-04-13
Buy which one?
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Kelvin27
·2021-04-13
Reply me
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HoeMeng
·2021-04-13
Bull lai le
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HoeMeng
·2021-04-13
Pls start to bull again
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FierySpade
·2021-04-13
Expectation ? More like depression 🤣
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aliciatng
·2021-04-13
Comment and like
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ChemGoh
·2021-04-13
Looking
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收起
- Jeph:
  Look around
  2021-04-13
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- ChemGoh:
  Finding
  2021-04-14
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- Jeph:
  Found?
  2021-04-14
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LoBangKing
·2021-04-13
Ya ya true true
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Expectations are high, with sales and profit forecasts rising ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/expectations-are-high-for-this-earnings-season-heres-what-to-look-for-51618266227?mod=hp_LATEST\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1610680873436","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Expectations Are High for This Earnings Season. 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Here’s What to Look For.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-13 18:44 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/expectations-are-high-for-this-earnings-season-heres-what-to-look-for-51618266227?mod=hp_LATEST>Barron's</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nFirst-quarter earnings season kicks off this week as several large U.S. banks report their results for the first three months of 2021. Expectations are high, with sales and profit forecasts rising ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/expectations-are-high-for-this-earnings-season-heres-what-to-look-for-51618266227?mod=hp_LATEST\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".DJI","symbol_name":"道琼斯","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/expectations-are-high-for-this-earnings-season-heres-what-to-look-for-51618266227?mod=hp_LATEST","article_id":"1131702206","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131702206","pubTimestamp":1618310678,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1610680873436","name":"Barron's"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"First-quarter earnings season kicks off this week as several large U.S. banks report their results f","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"barrons.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"translate_title":"人们对这一财报季的预期很高。下面是要找的。","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9},"content_text":"First-quarter earnings season kicks off this week as several large U.S. banks report their results for the first three months of 2021. Expectations are high, with sales and profit forecasts rising through the quarter and shares rallying into the spring. It’s likely to be a blockbuster earnings season for many companies’ fundamentals, but their stock-price reactions may be more of a letdown. Investors should look to margins, spending plans, and management commentary to get the full picture.Wall Street analysts’ bottom-up forecast is for first-quarter S&P 500 earnings per share to jump by 21% year over year on a 6.4% rise in revenue, per data from Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist. The biggest relative gains are naturally seen coming from the more cyclical areas of the market: the S&P 500 consumer discretionary sector is expected to report earnings per share growth of 82%, followed by 77% for financials and 45% for materials.That’s thanks to an improving economy, higher commodity prices, and an easy comparison to the year-ago period, which included several weeks of harsh lockdowns across the globe. The consensus earnings forecast is just 2% above 2019’s first quarter, before the Covid-19 pandemic. It follows 1% year-over-year profit growth in the fourth quarter of 2020. And the second quarter is expected to be even more explosive: a 51% surge in S&P 500 earnings per share is the consensus estimate.The complicating factor for investors coming into this earnings season is that a strong rebound in earnings is far from a secret. Stocks have rallied in recent months, to record highs after record highs, as the market has focused on the accelerating vaccine rollout and unfolding economic recovery.The first quarter will be time for a growing number of companies to live up to the hype. Airlines, hotels, and the like will still likely get a pass given their particularly pandemic-sensitive businesses, and a rosy outlook might suffice there. But investors will be holding a broader range of companies to account than they have since the start of the pandemic. Rapid year-over-year growth is priced into the market.That’s a recipe for overall lukewarm—at best—reactions to what would normally be seen as very strong earnings. Take last earnings season, when companies that beat Wall Street numbers on both revenues and earnings per share actually saw their stock prices lag behind the S&P 500 by 0.1 percentage point the next day, according to Savita Subramanian, BofA Securities’ chief U.S. equity and quantitative strategist. That was the worst relative performance, or alpha, for double beats on record.This earnings season might not be all that different on that front, Subramanian argues. “Investors were unenthused by a big beat last quarter,” she wrote on Monday. “The only time in history (since 2000) that we saw negative alpha was in 2Q00, right at the peak of the Tech Bubble. Limited rewards indicate good news being priced in, and the rally since the last earnings season plus building euphoric sentiment lead us to suspect that a significant earnings beat may not translate to big market gains.”For reopening-sensitive companies like restaurants, retailers, and other in-person dependent businesses, the focus will likely be on management commentary about how consumer behavior evolved over the quarter as the winter spike in Covid-19 cases eased, vaccinations accelerated, and government restrictions eased in much of the country. That will be seen as a preview of what’s to come later in 2021.Investors will also be listening intently to what management teams have to say about their supply chains and input costs. Beyond impacting profit margins, rising commodity prices and growing production constraints could keep companies from fully taking advantage of pent-up demand for their products. Warnings on that front could overshadow strong first-quarter results and lead to reduced earnings estimates for the remainder of 2021. Margins are expected to tighten for industrials and consumer staples firms, by 16% and 2%, respectively.More quantifiably, investors will also be interested in what managements plan to do with their normalizing or growing cash flows as the pandemic recedes. “The sharp acceleration in earnings and [free cash flow] will increase the focus on how corporates decide to use their cash,” wrote UBS ’ chief U.S. equity strategist Keith Parker on Monday. “We see upside to capex and IT spend. We believe there is room to ramp up net buybacks to >$600bn (+50%) this year.”Finally, formal quarterly or full-year 2021 guidance may be the make-or-break variable for companies that didn’t surprise on earnings and sales in one direction or the other. Uncertainty regarding Covid-19 and economic outlook remain, but companies have now had a full year of operating in a pandemic, and most should be able to extrapolate the trends they’ve seen so far in 2021.Companies reporting in the coming days include Goldman Sachs Group (ticker: GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC) on Wednesday, followed by Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Delta Air Lines (DAL), PepsiCo (PEP), and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) on Thursday. Kansas City Southern (KSU) and Morgan Stanley (MS) report on Friday.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":345221173,"gmtCreate":1618320287392,"gmtModify":1634293749260,"author":{"id":"3577585651785890","authorId":"3577585651785890","name":"Kt18","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577585651785890","authorIdStr":"3577585651785890"},"htmlText":"Hopefully market is upbeat about the result","listText":"Hopefully market is upbeat about the result","text":"Hopefully market is upbeat about the result","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345221173","repostId":1131702206,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131702206","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618310678,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131702206?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-13 18:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Expectations Are High for This Earnings Season. Here’s What to Look For.<blockquote>人们对本财报季的期望很高。以下是要寻找的内容。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131702206","media":"Barron's","summary":"First-quarter earnings season kicks off this week as several large U.S. banks report their results f","content":"First-quarter earnings season kicks off this week as several large U.S. banks report their results for the first three months of 2021. Expectations are high, with sales and profit forecasts rising through the quarter and shares rallying into the spring. It’s likely to be a blockbuster earnings season for many companies’ fundamentals, but their stock-price reactions may be more of a letdown. Investors should look to margins, spending plans, and management commentary to get the full picture.<blockquote>随着美国几家大型银行公布2021年前三个月的业绩，第一季度财报季将于本周拉开帷幕。人们的期望很高，整个季度的销售额和利润预测都在上升，股价也在春季反弹。对于许多公司的基本面来说，这可能是一个重磅财报季，但它们的股价反应可能更令人失望。投资者应该关注利润率、支出计划和管理层评论以了解全貌。</blockquote>Wall Street analysts’ bottom-up forecast is for first-quarter S&amp;P 500 earnings per share to jump by 21% year over year on a 6.4% rise in revenue, per data from Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist. The biggest relative gains are naturally seen coming from the more cyclical areas of the market: the S&amp;P 500 consumer discretionary sector is expected to report earnings per share growth of 82%, followed by 77% for financials and 45% for materials.<blockquote>根据瑞士信贷首席美国股票策略师Jonathan Golub的数据，华尔街分析师自下而上的预测是，标普500第一季度每股收益将同比增长21%，营收增长6.4%。最大的相对收益自然来自市场周期性较强的领域：标普500非必需消费品行业预计每股收益将增长82%，其次是金融股77%和材料股45%。</blockquote>That’s thanks to an improving economy, higher commodity prices, and an easy comparison to the year-ago period, which included several weeks of harsh lockdowns across the globe. The consensus earnings forecast is just 2% above 2019’s first quarter, before the Covid-19 pandemic. It follows 1% year-over-year profit growth in the fourth quarter of 2020. And the second quarter is expected to be even more explosive: a 51% surge in S&amp;P 500 earnings per share is the consensus estimate.<blockquote>这要归功于经济改善、大宗商品价格上涨以及与去年同期（其中包括全球范围内数周的严厉封锁）的轻松比较。市场普遍的盈利预测仅比Covid-19大流行之前的2019年第一季度高出2%。此前，2020年第四季度利润同比增长1%。预计第二季度将更具爆炸性：市场普遍预计标普500每股收益将飙升51%。</blockquote>The complicating factor for investors coming into this earnings season is that a strong rebound in earnings is far from a secret. Stocks have rallied in recent months, to record highs after record highs, as the market has focused on the accelerating vaccine rollout and unfolding economic recovery.<blockquote>对于进入本财报季的投资者来说，一个复杂的因素是，盈利的强劲反弹远非秘密。近几个月来，随着市场关注疫苗加速推出和经济复苏的展开，股市不断上涨，屡创新高。</blockquote>The first quarter will be time for a growing number of companies to live up to the hype. Airlines, hotels, and the like will still likely get a pass given their particularly pandemic-sensitive businesses, and a rosy outlook might suffice there. But investors will be holding a broader range of companies to account than they have since the start of the pandemic. Rapid year-over-year growth is priced into the market.<blockquote>第一季度将是越来越多的公司不负众望的时候。鉴于航空公司、酒店等对流行病特别敏感的业务，它们仍有可能获得通行证，乐观的前景可能就足够了。但与大流行开始以来相比，投资者将对更广泛的公司承担责任。同比快速增长已被市场消化。</blockquote>That’s a recipe for overall lukewarm—at best—reactions to what would normally be seen as very strong earnings. Take last earnings season, when companies that beat Wall Street numbers on both revenues and earnings per share actually saw their stock prices lag behind the S&amp;P 500 by 0.1 percentage point the next day, according to Savita Subramanian, BofA Securities’ chief U.S. equity and quantitative strategist. That was the worst relative performance, or alpha, for double beats on record.<blockquote>对于通常被视为非常强劲的盈利，总体反应充其量是不冷不热的。美国银行证券(BofA Securities)首席美国股票和量化策略师萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)表示，以上个财报季为例，收入和每股收益均超过华尔街的公司第二天股价实际上落后标普500 0.1个百分点。这是double beats有记录以来最差的相对表现，或称alpha。</blockquote>This earnings season might not be all that different on that front, Subramanian argues. “Investors were unenthused by a big beat last quarter,” she wrote on Monday. “The only time in history (since 2000) that we saw negative alpha was in 2Q00, right at the peak of the Tech Bubble. Limited rewards indicate good news being priced in, and the rally since the last earnings season plus building euphoric sentiment lead us to suspect that a significant earnings beat may not translate to big market gains.”<blockquote>萨勃拉曼尼亚认为，这个财报季在这方面可能不会有太大不同。“投资者对上个季度的大幅上涨并不感兴趣，”她周一写道。“历史上（自2000年以来）我们唯一一次看到负阿尔法是在2000年第二季度，当时正值科技泡沫的高峰期。有限的回报表明好消息已被定价，自上一财报季以来的反弹加上日益增强的乐观情绪导致我们怀疑盈利大幅增长可能不会转化为市场大幅上涨。”</blockquote>For reopening-sensitive companies like restaurants, retailers, and other in-person dependent businesses, the focus will likely be on management commentary about how consumer behavior evolved over the quarter as the winter spike in Covid-19 cases eased, vaccinations accelerated, and government restrictions eased in much of the country. That will be seen as a preview of what’s to come later in 2021.<blockquote>对于餐馆、零售商和其他依赖面对面的企业等对重新开业敏感的公司来说，重点可能是管理层对随着Covid-19病例冬季高峰缓解、疫苗接种加速以及政府限制在该国大部分地区放松的情况下消费者行为在本季度如何演变的评论。这将被视为2021年晚些时候发生的事情的预演。</blockquote>Investors will also be listening intently to what management teams have to say about their supply chains and input costs. Beyond impacting profit margins, rising commodity prices and growing production constraints could keep companies from fully taking advantage of pent-up demand for their products. Warnings on that front could overshadow strong first-quarter results and lead to reduced earnings estimates for the remainder of 2021. Margins are expected to tighten for industrials and consumer staples firms, by 16% and 2%, respectively.<blockquote>投资者还将认真倾听管理团队对其供应链和投入成本的看法。除了影响利润率之外，大宗商品价格上涨和生产限制加剧可能会使企业无法充分利用被压抑的产品需求。这方面的警告可能会掩盖强劲的第一季度业绩，并导致2021年剩余时间的盈利预期下调。工业和消费必需品公司的利润率预计将分别收紧16%和2%。</blockquote>More quantifiably, investors will also be interested in what managements plan to do with their normalizing or growing cash flows as the pandemic recedes. “The sharp acceleration in earnings and [free cash flow] will increase the focus on how corporates decide to use their cash,” wrote UBS ’ chief U.S. equity strategist Keith Parker on Monday. “We see upside to capex and IT spend. We believe there is room to ramp up net buybacks to &gt;$600bn (+50%) this year.”<blockquote>更可以量化的是，随着疫情的消退，投资者还将对管理层计划如何处理正常化或增长的现金流感兴趣。瑞银首席美国股票策略师基思·帕克周一写道：“盈利和[自由现金流]的急剧加速将增加人们对企业如何决定使用现金的关注。”“我们看到资本支出和IT支出的上升空间。我们相信今年净回购有空间增加到6000亿美元以上（+50%）。”</blockquote>Finally, formal quarterly or full-year 2021 guidance may be the make-or-break variable for companies that didn’t surprise on earnings and sales in one direction or the other. Uncertainty regarding Covid-19 and economic outlook remain, but companies have now had a full year of operating in a pandemic, and most should be able to extrapolate the trends they’ve seen so far in 2021.<blockquote>最后，对于那些在一个方向或另一个方向的盈利和销售额上没有感到意外的公司来说，正式的2021年季度或全年指引可能是成败的变量。有关Covid-19和经济前景的不确定性仍然存在，但公司现在已经在大流行中运营了一整年，大多数公司应该能够推断出2021年迄今为止看到的趋势。</blockquote>Companies reporting in the coming days include Goldman Sachs Group (ticker: GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC) on Wednesday, followed by Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Delta Air Lines (DAL), PepsiCo (PEP), and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) on Thursday. Kansas City Southern (KSU) and Morgan Stanley (MS) report on Friday.<blockquote>未来几天将发布财报的公司包括周三的高盛集团（股票代码：GS）、摩根大通（JPM）和富国银行（WFC），其次是美国银行（BAC）、花旗集团（C）、达美航空（DAL）周四）、百事可乐（PEP）和联合健康集团（UNH）。堪萨斯城南方银行（KSU）和摩根士丹利（MS）周五发布报告。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Expectations Are High for This Earnings Season. Here’s What to Look For.<blockquote>人们对本财报季的期望很高。以下是要寻找的内容。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nExpectations Are High for This Earnings Season. Here’s What to Look For.<blockquote>人们对本财报季的期望很高。以下是要寻找的内容。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-04-13 18:44\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nFirst-quarter earnings season kicks off this week as several large U.S. banks report their results for the first three months of 2021. Expectations are high, with sales and profit forecasts rising through the quarter and shares rallying into the spring. It’s likely to be a blockbuster earnings season for many companies’ fundamentals, but their stock-price reactions may be more of a letdown. Investors should look to margins, spending plans, and management commentary to get the full picture.<blockquote>随着美国几家大型银行公布2021年前三个月的业绩，第一季度财报季将于本周拉开帷幕。人们的期望很高，整个季度的销售额和利润预测都在上升，股价也在春季反弹。对于许多公司的基本面来说，这可能是一个重磅财报季，但它们的股价反应可能更令人失望。投资者应该关注利润率、支出计划和管理层评论以了解全貌。</blockquote>Wall Street analysts’ bottom-up forecast is for first-quarter S&amp;P 500 earnings per share to jump by 21% year over year on a 6.4% rise in revenue, per data from Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist. The biggest relative gains are naturally seen coming from the more cyclical areas of the market: the S&amp;P 500 consumer discretionary sector is expected to report earnings per share growth of 82%, followed by 77% for financials and 45% for materials.<blockquote>根据瑞士信贷首席美国股票策略师Jonathan Golub的数据，华尔街分析师自下而上的预测是，标普500第一季度每股收益将同比增长21%，营收增长6.4%。最大的相对收益自然来自市场周期性较强的领域：标普500非必需消费品行业预计每股收益将增长82%，其次是金融股77%和材料股45%。</blockquote>That’s thanks to an improving economy, higher commodity prices, and an easy comparison to the year-ago period, which included several weeks of harsh lockdowns across the globe. The consensus earnings forecast is just 2% above 2019’s first quarter, before the Covid-19 pandemic. It follows 1% year-over-year profit growth in the fourth quarter of 2020. And the second quarter is expected to be even more explosive: a 51% surge in S&amp;P 500 earnings per share is the consensus estimate.<blockquote>这要归功于经济改善、大宗商品价格上涨以及与去年同期（其中包括全球范围内数周的严厉封锁）的轻松比较。市场普遍的盈利预测仅比Covid-19大流行之前的2019年第一季度高出2%。此前，2020年第四季度利润同比增长1%。预计第二季度将更具爆炸性：市场普遍预计标普500每股收益将飙升51%。</blockquote>The complicating factor for investors coming into this earnings season is that a strong rebound in earnings is far from a secret. Stocks have rallied in recent months, to record highs after record highs, as the market has focused on the accelerating vaccine rollout and unfolding economic recovery.<blockquote>对于进入本财报季的投资者来说，一个复杂的因素是，盈利的强劲反弹远非秘密。近几个月来，随着市场关注疫苗加速推出和经济复苏的展开，股市不断上涨，屡创新高。</blockquote>The first quarter will be time for a growing number of companies to live up to the hype. Airlines, hotels, and the like will still likely get a pass given their particularly pandemic-sensitive businesses, and a rosy outlook might suffice there. But investors will be holding a broader range of companies to account than they have since the start of the pandemic. Rapid year-over-year growth is priced into the market.<blockquote>第一季度将是越来越多的公司不负众望的时候。鉴于航空公司、酒店等对流行病特别敏感的业务，它们仍有可能获得通行证，乐观的前景可能就足够了。但与大流行开始以来相比，投资者将对更广泛的公司承担责任。同比快速增长已被市场消化。</blockquote>That’s a recipe for overall lukewarm—at best—reactions to what would normally be seen as very strong earnings. Take last earnings season, when companies that beat Wall Street numbers on both revenues and earnings per share actually saw their stock prices lag behind the S&amp;P 500 by 0.1 percentage point the next day, according to Savita Subramanian, BofA Securities’ chief U.S. equity and quantitative strategist. That was the worst relative performance, or alpha, for double beats on record.<blockquote>对于通常被视为非常强劲的盈利，总体反应充其量是不冷不热的。美国银行证券(BofA Securities)首席美国股票和量化策略师萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)表示，以上个财报季为例，收入和每股收益均超过华尔街的公司第二天股价实际上落后标普500 0.1个百分点。这是double beats有记录以来最差的相对表现，或称alpha。</blockquote>This earnings season might not be all that different on that front, Subramanian argues. “Investors were unenthused by a big beat last quarter,” she wrote on Monday. “The only time in history (since 2000) that we saw negative alpha was in 2Q00, right at the peak of the Tech Bubble. Limited rewards indicate good news being priced in, and the rally since the last earnings season plus building euphoric sentiment lead us to suspect that a significant earnings beat may not translate to big market gains.”<blockquote>萨勃拉曼尼亚认为，这个财报季在这方面可能不会有太大不同。“投资者对上个季度的大幅上涨并不感兴趣，”她周一写道。“历史上（自2000年以来）我们唯一一次看到负阿尔法是在2000年第二季度，当时正值科技泡沫的高峰期。有限的回报表明好消息已被定价，自上一财报季以来的反弹加上日益增强的乐观情绪导致我们怀疑盈利大幅增长可能不会转化为市场大幅上涨。”</blockquote>For reopening-sensitive companies like restaurants, retailers, and other in-person dependent businesses, the focus will likely be on management commentary about how consumer behavior evolved over the quarter as the winter spike in Covid-19 cases eased, vaccinations accelerated, and government restrictions eased in much of the country. That will be seen as a preview of what’s to come later in 2021.<blockquote>对于餐馆、零售商和其他依赖面对面的企业等对重新开业敏感的公司来说，重点可能是管理层对随着Covid-19病例冬季高峰缓解、疫苗接种加速以及政府限制在该国大部分地区放松的情况下消费者行为在本季度如何演变的评论。这将被视为2021年晚些时候发生的事情的预演。</blockquote>Investors will also be listening intently to what management teams have to say about their supply chains and input costs. Beyond impacting profit margins, rising commodity prices and growing production constraints could keep companies from fully taking advantage of pent-up demand for their products. Warnings on that front could overshadow strong first-quarter results and lead to reduced earnings estimates for the remainder of 2021. Margins are expected to tighten for industrials and consumer staples firms, by 16% and 2%, respectively.<blockquote>投资者还将认真倾听管理团队对其供应链和投入成本的看法。除了影响利润率之外，大宗商品价格上涨和生产限制加剧可能会使企业无法充分利用被压抑的产品需求。这方面的警告可能会掩盖强劲的第一季度业绩，并导致2021年剩余时间的盈利预期下调。工业和消费必需品公司的利润率预计将分别收紧16%和2%。</blockquote>More quantifiably, investors will also be interested in what managements plan to do with their normalizing or growing cash flows as the pandemic recedes. “The sharp acceleration in earnings and [free cash flow] will increase the focus on how corporates decide to use their cash,” wrote UBS ’ chief U.S. equity strategist Keith Parker on Monday. “We see upside to capex and IT spend. We believe there is room to ramp up net buybacks to &gt;$600bn (+50%) this year.”<blockquote>更可以量化的是，随着疫情的消退，投资者还将对管理层计划如何处理正常化或增长的现金流感兴趣。瑞银首席美国股票策略师基思·帕克周一写道：“盈利和[自由现金流]的急剧加速将增加人们对企业如何决定使用现金的关注。”“我们看到资本支出和IT支出的上升空间。我们相信今年净回购有空间增加到6000亿美元以上（+50%）。”</blockquote>Finally, formal quarterly or full-year 2021 guidance may be the make-or-break variable for companies that didn’t surprise on earnings and sales in one direction or the other. Uncertainty regarding Covid-19 and economic outlook remain, but companies have now had a full year of operating in a pandemic, and most should be able to extrapolate the trends they’ve seen so far in 2021.<blockquote>最后，对于那些在一个方向或另一个方向的盈利和销售额上没有感到意外的公司来说，正式的2021年季度或全年指引可能是成败的变量。有关Covid-19和经济前景的不确定性仍然存在，但公司现在已经在大流行中运营了一整年，大多数公司应该能够推断出2021年迄今为止看到的趋势。</blockquote>Companies reporting in the coming days include Goldman Sachs Group (ticker: GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC) on Wednesday, followed by Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Delta Air Lines (DAL), PepsiCo (PEP), and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) on Thursday. Kansas City Southern (KSU) and Morgan Stanley (MS) report on Friday.<blockquote>未来几天将发布财报的公司包括周三的高盛集团（股票代码：GS）、摩根大通（JPM）和富国银行（WFC），其次是美国银行（BAC）、花旗集团（C）、达美航空（DAL）周四）、百事可乐（PEP）和联合健康集团（UNH）。堪萨斯城南方银行（KSU）和摩根士丹利（MS）周五发布报告。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/expectations-are-high-for-this-earnings-season-heres-what-to-look-for-51618266227?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/expectations-are-high-for-this-earnings-season-heres-what-to-look-for-51618266227?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131702206","content_text":"First-quarter earnings season kicks off this week as several large U.S. banks report their results for the first three months of 2021. Expectations are high, with sales and profit forecasts rising through the quarter and shares rallying into the spring. It’s likely to be a blockbuster earnings season for many companies’ fundamentals, but their stock-price reactions may be more of a letdown. Investors should look to margins, spending plans, and management commentary to get the full picture.Wall Street analysts’ bottom-up forecast is for first-quarter S&P 500 earnings per share to jump by 21% year over year on a 6.4% rise in revenue, per data from Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist. The biggest relative gains are naturally seen coming from the more cyclical areas of the market: the S&P 500 consumer discretionary sector is expected to report earnings per share growth of 82%, followed by 77% for financials and 45% for materials.That’s thanks to an improving economy, higher commodity prices, and an easy comparison to the year-ago period, which included several weeks of harsh lockdowns across the globe. The consensus earnings forecast is just 2% above 2019’s first quarter, before the Covid-19 pandemic. It follows 1% year-over-year profit growth in the fourth quarter of 2020. And the second quarter is expected to be even more explosive: a 51% surge in S&P 500 earnings per share is the consensus estimate.The complicating factor for investors coming into this earnings season is that a strong rebound in earnings is far from a secret. Stocks have rallied in recent months, to record highs after record highs, as the market has focused on the accelerating vaccine rollout and unfolding economic recovery.The first quarter will be time for a growing number of companies to live up to the hype. Airlines, hotels, and the like will still likely get a pass given their particularly pandemic-sensitive businesses, and a rosy outlook might suffice there. But investors will be holding a broader range of companies to account than they have since the start of the pandemic. Rapid year-over-year growth is priced into the market.That’s a recipe for overall lukewarm—at best—reactions to what would normally be seen as very strong earnings. Take last earnings season, when companies that beat Wall Street numbers on both revenues and earnings per share actually saw their stock prices lag behind the S&P 500 by 0.1 percentage point the next day, according to Savita Subramanian, BofA Securities’ chief U.S. equity and quantitative strategist. That was the worst relative performance, or alpha, for double beats on record.This earnings season might not be all that different on that front, Subramanian argues. “Investors were unenthused by a big beat last quarter,” she wrote on Monday. “The only time in history (since 2000) that we saw negative alpha was in 2Q00, right at the peak of the Tech Bubble. Limited rewards indicate good news being priced in, and the rally since the last earnings season plus building euphoric sentiment lead us to suspect that a significant earnings beat may not translate to big market gains.”For reopening-sensitive companies like restaurants, retailers, and other in-person dependent businesses, the focus will likely be on management commentary about how consumer behavior evolved over the quarter as the winter spike in Covid-19 cases eased, vaccinations accelerated, and government restrictions eased in much of the country. That will be seen as a preview of what’s to come later in 2021.Investors will also be listening intently to what management teams have to say about their supply chains and input costs. Beyond impacting profit margins, rising commodity prices and growing production constraints could keep companies from fully taking advantage of pent-up demand for their products. Warnings on that front could overshadow strong first-quarter results and lead to reduced earnings estimates for the remainder of 2021. Margins are expected to tighten for industrials and consumer staples firms, by 16% and 2%, respectively.More quantifiably, investors will also be interested in what managements plan to do with their normalizing or growing cash flows as the pandemic recedes. “The sharp acceleration in earnings and [free cash flow] will increase the focus on how corporates decide to use their cash,” wrote UBS ’ chief U.S. equity strategist Keith Parker on Monday. “We see upside to capex and IT spend. We believe there is room to ramp up net buybacks to >$600bn (+50%) this year.”Finally, formal quarterly or full-year 2021 guidance may be the make-or-break variable for companies that didn’t surprise on earnings and sales in one direction or the other. Uncertainty regarding Covid-19 and economic outlook remain, but companies have now had a full year of operating in a pandemic, and most should be able to extrapolate the trends they’ve seen so far in 2021.Companies reporting in the coming days include Goldman Sachs Group (ticker: GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC) on Wednesday, followed by Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Delta Air Lines (DAL), PepsiCo (PEP), and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) on Thursday. Kansas City Southern (KSU) and Morgan Stanley (MS) report on Friday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":345293304,"gmtCreate":1618315860208,"gmtModify":1634293777143,"author":{"id":"3576796739177144","authorId":"3576796739177144","name":"shaunlai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d731c4b02ba125fc67096c7ed33ff55","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576796739177144","authorIdStr":"3576796739177144"},"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345293304","repostId":1131702206,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131702206","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618310678,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131702206?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-13 18:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Expectations Are High for This Earnings Season. Here’s What to Look For.<blockquote>人们对本财报季的期望很高。以下是要寻找的内容。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131702206","media":"Barron's","summary":"First-quarter earnings season kicks off this week as several large U.S. banks report their results f","content":"First-quarter earnings season kicks off this week as several large U.S. banks report their results for the first three months of 2021. Expectations are high, with sales and profit forecasts rising through the quarter and shares rallying into the spring. It’s likely to be a blockbuster earnings season for many companies’ fundamentals, but their stock-price reactions may be more of a letdown. Investors should look to margins, spending plans, and management commentary to get the full picture.<blockquote>随着美国几家大型银行公布2021年前三个月的业绩，第一季度财报季将于本周拉开帷幕。人们的期望很高，整个季度的销售额和利润预测都在上升，股价也在春季反弹。对于许多公司的基本面来说，这可能是一个重磅财报季，但它们的股价反应可能更令人失望。投资者应该关注利润率、支出计划和管理层评论以了解全貌。</blockquote>Wall Street analysts’ bottom-up forecast is for first-quarter S&amp;P 500 earnings per share to jump by 21% year over year on a 6.4% rise in revenue, per data from Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist. The biggest relative gains are naturally seen coming from the more cyclical areas of the market: the S&amp;P 500 consumer discretionary sector is expected to report earnings per share growth of 82%, followed by 77% for financials and 45% for materials.<blockquote>根据瑞士信贷首席美国股票策略师Jonathan Golub的数据，华尔街分析师自下而上的预测是，标普500第一季度每股收益将同比增长21%，营收增长6.4%。最大的相对收益自然来自市场周期性较强的领域：标普500非必需消费品行业预计每股收益将增长82%，其次是金融股77%和材料股45%。</blockquote>That’s thanks to an improving economy, higher commodity prices, and an easy comparison to the year-ago period, which included several weeks of harsh lockdowns across the globe. The consensus earnings forecast is just 2% above 2019’s first quarter, before the Covid-19 pandemic. It follows 1% year-over-year profit growth in the fourth quarter of 2020. And the second quarter is expected to be even more explosive: a 51% surge in S&amp;P 500 earnings per share is the consensus estimate.<blockquote>这要归功于经济改善、大宗商品价格上涨以及与去年同期（其中包括全球范围内数周的严厉封锁）的轻松比较。市场普遍的盈利预测仅比Covid-19大流行之前的2019年第一季度高出2%。此前，2020年第四季度利润同比增长1%。预计第二季度将更具爆炸性：市场普遍预计标普500每股收益将飙升51%。</blockquote>The complicating factor for investors coming into this earnings season is that a strong rebound in earnings is far from a secret. Stocks have rallied in recent months, to record highs after record highs, as the market has focused on the accelerating vaccine rollout and unfolding economic recovery.<blockquote>对于进入本财报季的投资者来说，一个复杂的因素是，盈利的强劲反弹远非秘密。近几个月来，随着市场关注疫苗加速推出和经济复苏的展开，股市不断上涨，屡创新高。</blockquote>The first quarter will be time for a growing number of companies to live up to the hype. Airlines, hotels, and the like will still likely get a pass given their particularly pandemic-sensitive businesses, and a rosy outlook might suffice there. But investors will be holding a broader range of companies to account than they have since the start of the pandemic. Rapid year-over-year growth is priced into the market.<blockquote>第一季度将是越来越多的公司不负众望的时候。鉴于航空公司、酒店等对流行病特别敏感的业务，它们仍有可能获得通行证，乐观的前景可能就足够了。但与大流行开始以来相比，投资者将对更广泛的公司承担责任。同比快速增长已被市场消化。</blockquote>That’s a recipe for overall lukewarm—at best—reactions to what would normally be seen as very strong earnings. Take last earnings season, when companies that beat Wall Street numbers on both revenues and earnings per share actually saw their stock prices lag behind the S&amp;P 500 by 0.1 percentage point the next day, according to Savita Subramanian, BofA Securities’ chief U.S. equity and quantitative strategist. That was the worst relative performance, or alpha, for double beats on record.<blockquote>对于通常被视为非常强劲的盈利，总体反应充其量是不冷不热的。美国银行证券(BofA Securities)首席美国股票和量化策略师萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)表示，以上个财报季为例，收入和每股收益均超过华尔街的公司第二天股价实际上落后标普500 0.1个百分点。这是double beats有记录以来最差的相对表现，或称alpha。</blockquote>This earnings season might not be all that different on that front, Subramanian argues. “Investors were unenthused by a big beat last quarter,” she wrote on Monday. “The only time in history (since 2000) that we saw negative alpha was in 2Q00, right at the peak of the Tech Bubble. Limited rewards indicate good news being priced in, and the rally since the last earnings season plus building euphoric sentiment lead us to suspect that a significant earnings beat may not translate to big market gains.”<blockquote>萨勃拉曼尼亚认为，这个财报季在这方面可能不会有太大不同。“投资者对上个季度的大幅上涨并不感兴趣，”她周一写道。“历史上（自2000年以来）我们唯一一次看到负阿尔法是在2000年第二季度，当时正值科技泡沫的高峰期。有限的回报表明好消息已被定价，自上一财报季以来的反弹加上日益增强的乐观情绪导致我们怀疑盈利大幅增长可能不会转化为市场大幅上涨。”</blockquote>For reopening-sensitive companies like restaurants, retailers, and other in-person dependent businesses, the focus will likely be on management commentary about how consumer behavior evolved over the quarter as the winter spike in Covid-19 cases eased, vaccinations accelerated, and government restrictions eased in much of the country. That will be seen as a preview of what’s to come later in 2021.<blockquote>对于餐馆、零售商和其他依赖面对面的企业等对重新开业敏感的公司来说，重点可能是管理层对随着Covid-19病例冬季高峰缓解、疫苗接种加速以及政府限制在该国大部分地区放松的情况下消费者行为在本季度如何演变的评论。这将被视为2021年晚些时候发生的事情的预演。</blockquote>Investors will also be listening intently to what management teams have to say about their supply chains and input costs. Beyond impacting profit margins, rising commodity prices and growing production constraints could keep companies from fully taking advantage of pent-up demand for their products. Warnings on that front could overshadow strong first-quarter results and lead to reduced earnings estimates for the remainder of 2021. Margins are expected to tighten for industrials and consumer staples firms, by 16% and 2%, respectively.<blockquote>投资者还将认真倾听管理团队对其供应链和投入成本的看法。除了影响利润率之外，大宗商品价格上涨和生产限制加剧可能会使企业无法充分利用被压抑的产品需求。这方面的警告可能会掩盖强劲的第一季度业绩，并导致2021年剩余时间的盈利预期下调。工业和消费必需品公司的利润率预计将分别收紧16%和2%。</blockquote>More quantifiably, investors will also be interested in what managements plan to do with their normalizing or growing cash flows as the pandemic recedes. “The sharp acceleration in earnings and [free cash flow] will increase the focus on how corporates decide to use their cash,” wrote UBS ’ chief U.S. equity strategist Keith Parker on Monday. “We see upside to capex and IT spend. We believe there is room to ramp up net buybacks to &gt;$600bn (+50%) this year.”<blockquote>更可以量化的是，随着疫情的消退，投资者还将对管理层计划如何处理正常化或增长的现金流感兴趣。瑞银首席美国股票策略师基思·帕克周一写道：“盈利和[自由现金流]的急剧加速将增加人们对企业如何决定使用现金的关注。”“我们看到资本支出和IT支出的上升空间。我们相信今年净回购有空间增加到6000亿美元以上（+50%）。”</blockquote>Finally, formal quarterly or full-year 2021 guidance may be the make-or-break variable for companies that didn’t surprise on earnings and sales in one direction or the other. Uncertainty regarding Covid-19 and economic outlook remain, but companies have now had a full year of operating in a pandemic, and most should be able to extrapolate the trends they’ve seen so far in 2021.<blockquote>最后，对于那些在一个方向或另一个方向的盈利和销售额上没有感到意外的公司来说，正式的2021年季度或全年指引可能是成败的变量。有关Covid-19和经济前景的不确定性仍然存在，但公司现在已经在大流行中运营了一整年，大多数公司应该能够推断出2021年迄今为止看到的趋势。</blockquote>Companies reporting in the coming days include Goldman Sachs Group (ticker: GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC) on Wednesday, followed by Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Delta Air Lines (DAL), PepsiCo (PEP), and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) on Thursday. Kansas City Southern (KSU) and Morgan Stanley (MS) report on Friday.<blockquote>未来几天将发布财报的公司包括周三的高盛集团（股票代码：GS）、摩根大通（JPM）和富国银行（WFC），其次是美国银行（BAC）、花旗集团（C）、达美航空（DAL）周四）、百事可乐（PEP）和联合健康集团（UNH）。堪萨斯城南方银行（KSU）和摩根士丹利（MS）周五发布报告。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Expectations Are High for This Earnings Season. Here’s What to Look For.<blockquote>人们对本财报季的期望很高。以下是要寻找的内容。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nExpectations Are High for This Earnings Season. Here’s What to Look For.<blockquote>人们对本财报季的期望很高。以下是要寻找的内容。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-04-13 18:44\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nFirst-quarter earnings season kicks off this week as several large U.S. banks report their results for the first three months of 2021. Expectations are high, with sales and profit forecasts rising through the quarter and shares rallying into the spring. It’s likely to be a blockbuster earnings season for many companies’ fundamentals, but their stock-price reactions may be more of a letdown. Investors should look to margins, spending plans, and management commentary to get the full picture.<blockquote>随着美国几家大型银行公布2021年前三个月的业绩，第一季度财报季将于本周拉开帷幕。人们的期望很高，整个季度的销售额和利润预测都在上升，股价也在春季反弹。对于许多公司的基本面来说，这可能是一个重磅财报季，但它们的股价反应可能更令人失望。投资者应该关注利润率、支出计划和管理层评论以了解全貌。</blockquote>Wall Street analysts’ bottom-up forecast is for first-quarter S&amp;P 500 earnings per share to jump by 21% year over year on a 6.4% rise in revenue, per data from Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist. The biggest relative gains are naturally seen coming from the more cyclical areas of the market: the S&amp;P 500 consumer discretionary sector is expected to report earnings per share growth of 82%, followed by 77% for financials and 45% for materials.<blockquote>根据瑞士信贷首席美国股票策略师Jonathan Golub的数据，华尔街分析师自下而上的预测是，标普500第一季度每股收益将同比增长21%，营收增长6.4%。最大的相对收益自然来自市场周期性较强的领域：标普500非必需消费品行业预计每股收益将增长82%，其次是金融股77%和材料股45%。</blockquote>That’s thanks to an improving economy, higher commodity prices, and an easy comparison to the year-ago period, which included several weeks of harsh lockdowns across the globe. The consensus earnings forecast is just 2% above 2019’s first quarter, before the Covid-19 pandemic. It follows 1% year-over-year profit growth in the fourth quarter of 2020. And the second quarter is expected to be even more explosive: a 51% surge in S&amp;P 500 earnings per share is the consensus estimate.<blockquote>这要归功于经济改善、大宗商品价格上涨以及与去年同期（其中包括全球范围内数周的严厉封锁）的轻松比较。市场普遍的盈利预测仅比Covid-19大流行之前的2019年第一季度高出2%。此前，2020年第四季度利润同比增长1%。预计第二季度将更具爆炸性：市场普遍预计标普500每股收益将飙升51%。</blockquote>The complicating factor for investors coming into this earnings season is that a strong rebound in earnings is far from a secret. Stocks have rallied in recent months, to record highs after record highs, as the market has focused on the accelerating vaccine rollout and unfolding economic recovery.<blockquote>对于进入本财报季的投资者来说，一个复杂的因素是，盈利的强劲反弹远非秘密。近几个月来，随着市场关注疫苗加速推出和经济复苏的展开，股市不断上涨，屡创新高。</blockquote>The first quarter will be time for a growing number of companies to live up to the hype. Airlines, hotels, and the like will still likely get a pass given their particularly pandemic-sensitive businesses, and a rosy outlook might suffice there. But investors will be holding a broader range of companies to account than they have since the start of the pandemic. Rapid year-over-year growth is priced into the market.<blockquote>第一季度将是越来越多的公司不负众望的时候。鉴于航空公司、酒店等对流行病特别敏感的业务，它们仍有可能获得通行证，乐观的前景可能就足够了。但与大流行开始以来相比，投资者将对更广泛的公司承担责任。同比快速增长已被市场消化。</blockquote>That’s a recipe for overall lukewarm—at best—reactions to what would normally be seen as very strong earnings. Take last earnings season, when companies that beat Wall Street numbers on both revenues and earnings per share actually saw their stock prices lag behind the S&amp;P 500 by 0.1 percentage point the next day, according to Savita Subramanian, BofA Securities’ chief U.S. equity and quantitative strategist. That was the worst relative performance, or alpha, for double beats on record.<blockquote>对于通常被视为非常强劲的盈利，总体反应充其量是不冷不热的。美国银行证券(BofA Securities)首席美国股票和量化策略师萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)表示，以上个财报季为例，收入和每股收益均超过华尔街的公司第二天股价实际上落后标普500 0.1个百分点。这是double beats有记录以来最差的相对表现，或称alpha。</blockquote>This earnings season might not be all that different on that front, Subramanian argues. “Investors were unenthused by a big beat last quarter,” she wrote on Monday. “The only time in history (since 2000) that we saw negative alpha was in 2Q00, right at the peak of the Tech Bubble. Limited rewards indicate good news being priced in, and the rally since the last earnings season plus building euphoric sentiment lead us to suspect that a significant earnings beat may not translate to big market gains.”<blockquote>萨勃拉曼尼亚认为，这个财报季在这方面可能不会有太大不同。“投资者对上个季度的大幅上涨并不感兴趣，”她周一写道。“历史上（自2000年以来）我们唯一一次看到负阿尔法是在2000年第二季度，当时正值科技泡沫的高峰期。有限的回报表明好消息已被定价，自上一财报季以来的反弹加上日益增强的乐观情绪导致我们怀疑盈利大幅增长可能不会转化为市场大幅上涨。”</blockquote>For reopening-sensitive companies like restaurants, retailers, and other in-person dependent businesses, the focus will likely be on management commentary about how consumer behavior evolved over the quarter as the winter spike in Covid-19 cases eased, vaccinations accelerated, and government restrictions eased in much of the country. That will be seen as a preview of what’s to come later in 2021.<blockquote>对于餐馆、零售商和其他依赖面对面的企业等对重新开业敏感的公司来说，重点可能是管理层对随着Covid-19病例冬季高峰缓解、疫苗接种加速以及政府限制在该国大部分地区放松的情况下消费者行为在本季度如何演变的评论。这将被视为2021年晚些时候发生的事情的预演。</blockquote>Investors will also be listening intently to what management teams have to say about their supply chains and input costs. Beyond impacting profit margins, rising commodity prices and growing production constraints could keep companies from fully taking advantage of pent-up demand for their products. Warnings on that front could overshadow strong first-quarter results and lead to reduced earnings estimates for the remainder of 2021. Margins are expected to tighten for industrials and consumer staples firms, by 16% and 2%, respectively.<blockquote>投资者还将认真倾听管理团队对其供应链和投入成本的看法。除了影响利润率之外，大宗商品价格上涨和生产限制加剧可能会使企业无法充分利用被压抑的产品需求。这方面的警告可能会掩盖强劲的第一季度业绩，并导致2021年剩余时间的盈利预期下调。工业和消费必需品公司的利润率预计将分别收紧16%和2%。</blockquote>More quantifiably, investors will also be interested in what managements plan to do with their normalizing or growing cash flows as the pandemic recedes. “The sharp acceleration in earnings and [free cash flow] will increase the focus on how corporates decide to use their cash,” wrote UBS ’ chief U.S. equity strategist Keith Parker on Monday. “We see upside to capex and IT spend. We believe there is room to ramp up net buybacks to &gt;$600bn (+50%) this year.”<blockquote>更可以量化的是，随着疫情的消退，投资者还将对管理层计划如何处理正常化或增长的现金流感兴趣。瑞银首席美国股票策略师基思·帕克周一写道：“盈利和[自由现金流]的急剧加速将增加人们对企业如何决定使用现金的关注。”“我们看到资本支出和IT支出的上升空间。我们相信今年净回购有空间增加到6000亿美元以上（+50%）。”</blockquote>Finally, formal quarterly or full-year 2021 guidance may be the make-or-break variable for companies that didn’t surprise on earnings and sales in one direction or the other. Uncertainty regarding Covid-19 and economic outlook remain, but companies have now had a full year of operating in a pandemic, and most should be able to extrapolate the trends they’ve seen so far in 2021.<blockquote>最后，对于那些在一个方向或另一个方向的盈利和销售额上没有感到意外的公司来说，正式的2021年季度或全年指引可能是成败的变量。有关Covid-19和经济前景的不确定性仍然存在，但公司现在已经在大流行中运营了一整年，大多数公司应该能够推断出2021年迄今为止看到的趋势。</blockquote>Companies reporting in the coming days include Goldman Sachs Group (ticker: GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC) on Wednesday, followed by Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Delta Air Lines (DAL), PepsiCo (PEP), and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) on Thursday. Kansas City Southern (KSU) and Morgan Stanley (MS) report on Friday.<blockquote>未来几天将发布财报的公司包括周三的高盛集团（股票代码：GS）、摩根大通（JPM）和富国银行（WFC），其次是美国银行（BAC）、花旗集团（C）、达美航空（DAL）周四）、百事可乐（PEP）和联合健康集团（UNH）。堪萨斯城南方银行（KSU）和摩根士丹利（MS）周五发布报告。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/expectations-are-high-for-this-earnings-season-heres-what-to-look-for-51618266227?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/expectations-are-high-for-this-earnings-season-heres-what-to-look-for-51618266227?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131702206","content_text":"First-quarter earnings season kicks off this week as several large U.S. banks report their results for the first three months of 2021. Expectations are high, with sales and profit forecasts rising through the quarter and shares rallying into the spring. It’s likely to be a blockbuster earnings season for many companies’ fundamentals, but their stock-price reactions may be more of a letdown. Investors should look to margins, spending plans, and management commentary to get the full picture.Wall Street analysts’ bottom-up forecast is for first-quarter S&P 500 earnings per share to jump by 21% year over year on a 6.4% rise in revenue, per data from Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist. The biggest relative gains are naturally seen coming from the more cyclical areas of the market: the S&P 500 consumer discretionary sector is expected to report earnings per share growth of 82%, followed by 77% for financials and 45% for materials.That’s thanks to an improving economy, higher commodity prices, and an easy comparison to the year-ago period, which included several weeks of harsh lockdowns across the globe. The consensus earnings forecast is just 2% above 2019’s first quarter, before the Covid-19 pandemic. It follows 1% year-over-year profit growth in the fourth quarter of 2020. And the second quarter is expected to be even more explosive: a 51% surge in S&P 500 earnings per share is the consensus estimate.The complicating factor for investors coming into this earnings season is that a strong rebound in earnings is far from a secret. Stocks have rallied in recent months, to record highs after record highs, as the market has focused on the accelerating vaccine rollout and unfolding economic recovery.The first quarter will be time for a growing number of companies to live up to the hype. Airlines, hotels, and the like will still likely get a pass given their particularly pandemic-sensitive businesses, and a rosy outlook might suffice there. But investors will be holding a broader range of companies to account than they have since the start of the pandemic. Rapid year-over-year growth is priced into the market.That’s a recipe for overall lukewarm—at best—reactions to what would normally be seen as very strong earnings. Take last earnings season, when companies that beat Wall Street numbers on both revenues and earnings per share actually saw their stock prices lag behind the S&P 500 by 0.1 percentage point the next day, according to Savita Subramanian, BofA Securities’ chief U.S. equity and quantitative strategist. That was the worst relative performance, or alpha, for double beats on record.This earnings season might not be all that different on that front, Subramanian argues. “Investors were unenthused by a big beat last quarter,” she wrote on Monday. “The only time in history (since 2000) that we saw negative alpha was in 2Q00, right at the peak of the Tech Bubble. Limited rewards indicate good news being priced in, and the rally since the last earnings season plus building euphoric sentiment lead us to suspect that a significant earnings beat may not translate to big market gains.”For reopening-sensitive companies like restaurants, retailers, and other in-person dependent businesses, the focus will likely be on management commentary about how consumer behavior evolved over the quarter as the winter spike in Covid-19 cases eased, vaccinations accelerated, and government restrictions eased in much of the country. That will be seen as a preview of what’s to come later in 2021.Investors will also be listening intently to what management teams have to say about their supply chains and input costs. Beyond impacting profit margins, rising commodity prices and growing production constraints could keep companies from fully taking advantage of pent-up demand for their products. Warnings on that front could overshadow strong first-quarter results and lead to reduced earnings estimates for the remainder of 2021. Margins are expected to tighten for industrials and consumer staples firms, by 16% and 2%, respectively.More quantifiably, investors will also be interested in what managements plan to do with their normalizing or growing cash flows as the pandemic recedes. “The sharp acceleration in earnings and [free cash flow] will increase the focus on how corporates decide to use their cash,” wrote UBS ’ chief U.S. equity strategist Keith Parker on Monday. “We see upside to capex and IT spend. We believe there is room to ramp up net buybacks to >$600bn (+50%) this year.”Finally, formal quarterly or full-year 2021 guidance may be the make-or-break variable for companies that didn’t surprise on earnings and sales in one direction or the other. Uncertainty regarding Covid-19 and economic outlook remain, but companies have now had a full year of operating in a pandemic, and most should be able to extrapolate the trends they’ve seen so far in 2021.Companies reporting in the coming days include Goldman Sachs Group (ticker: GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC) on Wednesday, followed by Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Delta Air Lines (DAL), PepsiCo (PEP), and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) on Thursday. Kansas City Southern (KSU) and Morgan Stanley (MS) report on Friday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":345205115,"gmtCreate":1618315302037,"gmtModify":1634293779420,"author":{"id":"3579641559515609","authorId":"3579641559515609","name":"jotan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87ec235eb9a61555dfa02200bac37b1c","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3579641559515609","authorIdStr":"3579641559515609"},"htmlText":"Buy which one?","listText":"Buy which one?","text":"Buy which one?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345205115","repostId":1131702206,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131702206","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618310678,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131702206?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-13 18:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Expectations Are High for This Earnings Season. Here’s What to Look For.<blockquote>人们对本财报季的期望很高。以下是要寻找的内容。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131702206","media":"Barron's","summary":"First-quarter earnings season kicks off this week as several large U.S. banks report their results f","content":"First-quarter earnings season kicks off this week as several large U.S. banks report their results for the first three months of 2021. Expectations are high, with sales and profit forecasts rising through the quarter and shares rallying into the spring. It’s likely to be a blockbuster earnings season for many companies’ fundamentals, but their stock-price reactions may be more of a letdown. Investors should look to margins, spending plans, and management commentary to get the full picture.<blockquote>随着美国几家大型银行公布2021年前三个月的业绩，第一季度财报季将于本周拉开帷幕。人们的期望很高，整个季度的销售额和利润预测都在上升，股价也在春季反弹。对于许多公司的基本面来说，这可能是一个重磅财报季，但它们的股价反应可能更令人失望。投资者应该关注利润率、支出计划和管理层评论以了解全貌。</blockquote>Wall Street analysts’ bottom-up forecast is for first-quarter S&amp;P 500 earnings per share to jump by 21% year over year on a 6.4% rise in revenue, per data from Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist. The biggest relative gains are naturally seen coming from the more cyclical areas of the market: the S&amp;P 500 consumer discretionary sector is expected to report earnings per share growth of 82%, followed by 77% for financials and 45% for materials.<blockquote>根据瑞士信贷首席美国股票策略师Jonathan Golub的数据，华尔街分析师自下而上的预测是，标普500第一季度每股收益将同比增长21%，营收增长6.4%。最大的相对收益自然来自市场周期性较强的领域：标普500非必需消费品行业预计每股收益将增长82%，其次是金融股77%和材料股45%。</blockquote>That’s thanks to an improving economy, higher commodity prices, and an easy comparison to the year-ago period, which included several weeks of harsh lockdowns across the globe. The consensus earnings forecast is just 2% above 2019’s first quarter, before the Covid-19 pandemic. It follows 1% year-over-year profit growth in the fourth quarter of 2020. And the second quarter is expected to be even more explosive: a 51% surge in S&amp;P 500 earnings per share is the consensus estimate.<blockquote>这要归功于经济改善、大宗商品价格上涨以及与去年同期（其中包括全球范围内数周的严厉封锁）的轻松比较。市场普遍的盈利预测仅比Covid-19大流行之前的2019年第一季度高出2%。此前，2020年第四季度利润同比增长1%。预计第二季度将更具爆炸性：市场普遍预计标普500每股收益将飙升51%。</blockquote>The complicating factor for investors coming into this earnings season is that a strong rebound in earnings is far from a secret. Stocks have rallied in recent months, to record highs after record highs, as the market has focused on the accelerating vaccine rollout and unfolding economic recovery.<blockquote>对于进入本财报季的投资者来说，一个复杂的因素是，盈利的强劲反弹远非秘密。近几个月来，随着市场关注疫苗加速推出和经济复苏的展开，股市不断上涨，屡创新高。</blockquote>The first quarter will be time for a growing number of companies to live up to the hype. Airlines, hotels, and the like will still likely get a pass given their particularly pandemic-sensitive businesses, and a rosy outlook might suffice there. But investors will be holding a broader range of companies to account than they have since the start of the pandemic. Rapid year-over-year growth is priced into the market.<blockquote>第一季度将是越来越多的公司不负众望的时候。鉴于航空公司、酒店等对流行病特别敏感的业务，它们仍有可能获得通行证，乐观的前景可能就足够了。但与大流行开始以来相比，投资者将对更广泛的公司承担责任。同比快速增长已被市场消化。</blockquote>That’s a recipe for overall lukewarm—at best—reactions to what would normally be seen as very strong earnings. Take last earnings season, when companies that beat Wall Street numbers on both revenues and earnings per share actually saw their stock prices lag behind the S&amp;P 500 by 0.1 percentage point the next day, according to Savita Subramanian, BofA Securities’ chief U.S. equity and quantitative strategist. That was the worst relative performance, or alpha, for double beats on record.<blockquote>对于通常被视为非常强劲的盈利，总体反应充其量是不冷不热的。美国银行证券(BofA Securities)首席美国股票和量化策略师萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)表示，以上个财报季为例，收入和每股收益均超过华尔街的公司第二天股价实际上落后标普500 0.1个百分点。这是double beats有记录以来最差的相对表现，或称alpha。</blockquote>This earnings season might not be all that different on that front, Subramanian argues. “Investors were unenthused by a big beat last quarter,” she wrote on Monday. “The only time in history (since 2000) that we saw negative alpha was in 2Q00, right at the peak of the Tech Bubble. Limited rewards indicate good news being priced in, and the rally since the last earnings season plus building euphoric sentiment lead us to suspect that a significant earnings beat may not translate to big market gains.”<blockquote>萨勃拉曼尼亚认为，这个财报季在这方面可能不会有太大不同。“投资者对上个季度的大幅上涨并不感兴趣，”她周一写道。“历史上（自2000年以来）我们唯一一次看到负阿尔法是在2000年第二季度，当时正值科技泡沫的高峰期。有限的回报表明好消息已被定价，自上一财报季以来的反弹加上日益增强的乐观情绪导致我们怀疑盈利大幅增长可能不会转化为市场大幅上涨。”</blockquote>For reopening-sensitive companies like restaurants, retailers, and other in-person dependent businesses, the focus will likely be on management commentary about how consumer behavior evolved over the quarter as the winter spike in Covid-19 cases eased, vaccinations accelerated, and government restrictions eased in much of the country. That will be seen as a preview of what’s to come later in 2021.<blockquote>对于餐馆、零售商和其他依赖面对面的企业等对重新开业敏感的公司来说，重点可能是管理层对随着Covid-19病例冬季高峰缓解、疫苗接种加速以及政府限制在该国大部分地区放松的情况下消费者行为在本季度如何演变的评论。这将被视为2021年晚些时候发生的事情的预演。</blockquote>Investors will also be listening intently to what management teams have to say about their supply chains and input costs. Beyond impacting profit margins, rising commodity prices and growing production constraints could keep companies from fully taking advantage of pent-up demand for their products. Warnings on that front could overshadow strong first-quarter results and lead to reduced earnings estimates for the remainder of 2021. Margins are expected to tighten for industrials and consumer staples firms, by 16% and 2%, respectively.<blockquote>投资者还将认真倾听管理团队对其供应链和投入成本的看法。除了影响利润率之外，大宗商品价格上涨和生产限制加剧可能会使企业无法充分利用被压抑的产品需求。这方面的警告可能会掩盖强劲的第一季度业绩，并导致2021年剩余时间的盈利预期下调。工业和消费必需品公司的利润率预计将分别收紧16%和2%。</blockquote>More quantifiably, investors will also be interested in what managements plan to do with their normalizing or growing cash flows as the pandemic recedes. “The sharp acceleration in earnings and [free cash flow] will increase the focus on how corporates decide to use their cash,” wrote UBS ’ chief U.S. equity strategist Keith Parker on Monday. “We see upside to capex and IT spend. We believe there is room to ramp up net buybacks to &gt;$600bn (+50%) this year.”<blockquote>更可以量化的是，随着疫情的消退，投资者还将对管理层计划如何处理正常化或增长的现金流感兴趣。瑞银首席美国股票策略师基思·帕克周一写道：“盈利和[自由现金流]的急剧加速将增加人们对企业如何决定使用现金的关注。”“我们看到资本支出和IT支出的上升空间。我们相信今年净回购有空间增加到6000亿美元以上（+50%）。”</blockquote>Finally, formal quarterly or full-year 2021 guidance may be the make-or-break variable for companies that didn’t surprise on earnings and sales in one direction or the other. Uncertainty regarding Covid-19 and economic outlook remain, but companies have now had a full year of operating in a pandemic, and most should be able to extrapolate the trends they’ve seen so far in 2021.<blockquote>最后，对于那些在一个方向或另一个方向的盈利和销售额上没有感到意外的公司来说，正式的2021年季度或全年指引可能是成败的变量。有关Covid-19和经济前景的不确定性仍然存在，但公司现在已经在大流行中运营了一整年，大多数公司应该能够推断出2021年迄今为止看到的趋势。</blockquote>Companies reporting in the coming days include Goldman Sachs Group (ticker: GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC) on Wednesday, followed by Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Delta Air Lines (DAL), PepsiCo (PEP), and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) on Thursday. Kansas City Southern (KSU) and Morgan Stanley (MS) report on Friday.<blockquote>未来几天将发布财报的公司包括周三的高盛集团（股票代码：GS）、摩根大通（JPM）和富国银行（WFC），其次是美国银行（BAC）、花旗集团（C）、达美航空（DAL）周四）、百事可乐（PEP）和联合健康集团（UNH）。堪萨斯城南方银行（KSU）和摩根士丹利（MS）周五发布报告。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Expectations Are High for This Earnings Season. Here’s What to Look For.<blockquote>人们对本财报季的期望很高。以下是要寻找的内容。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nExpectations Are High for This Earnings Season. Here’s What to Look For.<blockquote>人们对本财报季的期望很高。以下是要寻找的内容。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-04-13 18:44\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nFirst-quarter earnings season kicks off this week as several large U.S. banks report their results for the first three months of 2021. Expectations are high, with sales and profit forecasts rising through the quarter and shares rallying into the spring. It’s likely to be a blockbuster earnings season for many companies’ fundamentals, but their stock-price reactions may be more of a letdown. Investors should look to margins, spending plans, and management commentary to get the full picture.<blockquote>随着美国几家大型银行公布2021年前三个月的业绩，第一季度财报季将于本周拉开帷幕。人们的期望很高，整个季度的销售额和利润预测都在上升，股价也在春季反弹。对于许多公司的基本面来说，这可能是一个重磅财报季，但它们的股价反应可能更令人失望。投资者应该关注利润率、支出计划和管理层评论以了解全貌。</blockquote>Wall Street analysts’ bottom-up forecast is for first-quarter S&amp;P 500 earnings per share to jump by 21% year over year on a 6.4% rise in revenue, per data from Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist. The biggest relative gains are naturally seen coming from the more cyclical areas of the market: the S&amp;P 500 consumer discretionary sector is expected to report earnings per share growth of 82%, followed by 77% for financials and 45% for materials.<blockquote>根据瑞士信贷首席美国股票策略师Jonathan Golub的数据，华尔街分析师自下而上的预测是，标普500第一季度每股收益将同比增长21%，营收增长6.4%。最大的相对收益自然来自市场周期性较强的领域：标普500非必需消费品行业预计每股收益将增长82%，其次是金融股77%和材料股45%。</blockquote>That’s thanks to an improving economy, higher commodity prices, and an easy comparison to the year-ago period, which included several weeks of harsh lockdowns across the globe. The consensus earnings forecast is just 2% above 2019’s first quarter, before the Covid-19 pandemic. It follows 1% year-over-year profit growth in the fourth quarter of 2020. And the second quarter is expected to be even more explosive: a 51% surge in S&amp;P 500 earnings per share is the consensus estimate.<blockquote>这要归功于经济改善、大宗商品价格上涨以及与去年同期（其中包括全球范围内数周的严厉封锁）的轻松比较。市场普遍的盈利预测仅比Covid-19大流行之前的2019年第一季度高出2%。此前，2020年第四季度利润同比增长1%。预计第二季度将更具爆炸性：市场普遍预计标普500每股收益将飙升51%。</blockquote>The complicating factor for investors coming into this earnings season is that a strong rebound in earnings is far from a secret. Stocks have rallied in recent months, to record highs after record highs, as the market has focused on the accelerating vaccine rollout and unfolding economic recovery.<blockquote>对于进入本财报季的投资者来说，一个复杂的因素是，盈利的强劲反弹远非秘密。近几个月来，随着市场关注疫苗加速推出和经济复苏的展开，股市不断上涨，屡创新高。</blockquote>The first quarter will be time for a growing number of companies to live up to the hype. Airlines, hotels, and the like will still likely get a pass given their particularly pandemic-sensitive businesses, and a rosy outlook might suffice there. But investors will be holding a broader range of companies to account than they have since the start of the pandemic. Rapid year-over-year growth is priced into the market.<blockquote>第一季度将是越来越多的公司不负众望的时候。鉴于航空公司、酒店等对流行病特别敏感的业务，它们仍有可能获得通行证，乐观的前景可能就足够了。但与大流行开始以来相比，投资者将对更广泛的公司承担责任。同比快速增长已被市场消化。</blockquote>That’s a recipe for overall lukewarm—at best—reactions to what would normally be seen as very strong earnings. Take last earnings season, when companies that beat Wall Street numbers on both revenues and earnings per share actually saw their stock prices lag behind the S&amp;P 500 by 0.1 percentage point the next day, according to Savita Subramanian, BofA Securities’ chief U.S. equity and quantitative strategist. That was the worst relative performance, or alpha, for double beats on record.<blockquote>对于通常被视为非常强劲的盈利，总体反应充其量是不冷不热的。美国银行证券(BofA Securities)首席美国股票和量化策略师萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)表示，以上个财报季为例，收入和每股收益均超过华尔街的公司第二天股价实际上落后标普500 0.1个百分点。这是double beats有记录以来最差的相对表现，或称alpha。</blockquote>This earnings season might not be all that different on that front, Subramanian argues. “Investors were unenthused by a big beat last quarter,” she wrote on Monday. “The only time in history (since 2000) that we saw negative alpha was in 2Q00, right at the peak of the Tech Bubble. Limited rewards indicate good news being priced in, and the rally since the last earnings season plus building euphoric sentiment lead us to suspect that a significant earnings beat may not translate to big market gains.”<blockquote>萨勃拉曼尼亚认为，这个财报季在这方面可能不会有太大不同。“投资者对上个季度的大幅上涨并不感兴趣，”她周一写道。“历史上（自2000年以来）我们唯一一次看到负阿尔法是在2000年第二季度，当时正值科技泡沫的高峰期。有限的回报表明好消息已被定价，自上一财报季以来的反弹加上日益增强的乐观情绪导致我们怀疑盈利大幅增长可能不会转化为市场大幅上涨。”</blockquote>For reopening-sensitive companies like restaurants, retailers, and other in-person dependent businesses, the focus will likely be on management commentary about how consumer behavior evolved over the quarter as the winter spike in Covid-19 cases eased, vaccinations accelerated, and government restrictions eased in much of the country. That will be seen as a preview of what’s to come later in 2021.<blockquote>对于餐馆、零售商和其他依赖面对面的企业等对重新开业敏感的公司来说，重点可能是管理层对随着Covid-19病例冬季高峰缓解、疫苗接种加速以及政府限制在该国大部分地区放松的情况下消费者行为在本季度如何演变的评论。这将被视为2021年晚些时候发生的事情的预演。</blockquote>Investors will also be listening intently to what management teams have to say about their supply chains and input costs. Beyond impacting profit margins, rising commodity prices and growing production constraints could keep companies from fully taking advantage of pent-up demand for their products. Warnings on that front could overshadow strong first-quarter results and lead to reduced earnings estimates for the remainder of 2021. Margins are expected to tighten for industrials and consumer staples firms, by 16% and 2%, respectively.<blockquote>投资者还将认真倾听管理团队对其供应链和投入成本的看法。除了影响利润率之外，大宗商品价格上涨和生产限制加剧可能会使企业无法充分利用被压抑的产品需求。这方面的警告可能会掩盖强劲的第一季度业绩，并导致2021年剩余时间的盈利预期下调。工业和消费必需品公司的利润率预计将分别收紧16%和2%。</blockquote>More quantifiably, investors will also be interested in what managements plan to do with their normalizing or growing cash flows as the pandemic recedes. “The sharp acceleration in earnings and [free cash flow] will increase the focus on how corporates decide to use their cash,” wrote UBS ’ chief U.S. equity strategist Keith Parker on Monday. “We see upside to capex and IT spend. We believe there is room to ramp up net buybacks to &gt;$600bn (+50%) this year.”<blockquote>更可以量化的是，随着疫情的消退，投资者还将对管理层计划如何处理正常化或增长的现金流感兴趣。瑞银首席美国股票策略师基思·帕克周一写道：“盈利和[自由现金流]的急剧加速将增加人们对企业如何决定使用现金的关注。”“我们看到资本支出和IT支出的上升空间。我们相信今年净回购有空间增加到6000亿美元以上（+50%）。”</blockquote>Finally, formal quarterly or full-year 2021 guidance may be the make-or-break variable for companies that didn’t surprise on earnings and sales in one direction or the other. Uncertainty regarding Covid-19 and economic outlook remain, but companies have now had a full year of operating in a pandemic, and most should be able to extrapolate the trends they’ve seen so far in 2021.<blockquote>最后，对于那些在一个方向或另一个方向的盈利和销售额上没有感到意外的公司来说，正式的2021年季度或全年指引可能是成败的变量。有关Covid-19和经济前景的不确定性仍然存在，但公司现在已经在大流行中运营了一整年，大多数公司应该能够推断出2021年迄今为止看到的趋势。</blockquote>Companies reporting in the coming days include Goldman Sachs Group (ticker: GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC) on Wednesday, followed by Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Delta Air Lines (DAL), PepsiCo (PEP), and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) on Thursday. Kansas City Southern (KSU) and Morgan Stanley (MS) report on Friday.<blockquote>未来几天将发布财报的公司包括周三的高盛集团（股票代码：GS）、摩根大通（JPM）和富国银行（WFC），其次是美国银行（BAC）、花旗集团（C）、达美航空（DAL）周四）、百事可乐（PEP）和联合健康集团（UNH）。堪萨斯城南方银行（KSU）和摩根士丹利（MS）周五发布报告。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/expectations-are-high-for-this-earnings-season-heres-what-to-look-for-51618266227?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/expectations-are-high-for-this-earnings-season-heres-what-to-look-for-51618266227?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131702206","content_text":"First-quarter earnings season kicks off this week as several large U.S. banks report their results for the first three months of 2021. Expectations are high, with sales and profit forecasts rising through the quarter and shares rallying into the spring. It’s likely to be a blockbuster earnings season for many companies’ fundamentals, but their stock-price reactions may be more of a letdown. Investors should look to margins, spending plans, and management commentary to get the full picture.Wall Street analysts’ bottom-up forecast is for first-quarter S&P 500 earnings per share to jump by 21% year over year on a 6.4% rise in revenue, per data from Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist. The biggest relative gains are naturally seen coming from the more cyclical areas of the market: the S&P 500 consumer discretionary sector is expected to report earnings per share growth of 82%, followed by 77% for financials and 45% for materials.That’s thanks to an improving economy, higher commodity prices, and an easy comparison to the year-ago period, which included several weeks of harsh lockdowns across the globe. The consensus earnings forecast is just 2% above 2019’s first quarter, before the Covid-19 pandemic. It follows 1% year-over-year profit growth in the fourth quarter of 2020. And the second quarter is expected to be even more explosive: a 51% surge in S&P 500 earnings per share is the consensus estimate.The complicating factor for investors coming into this earnings season is that a strong rebound in earnings is far from a secret. Stocks have rallied in recent months, to record highs after record highs, as the market has focused on the accelerating vaccine rollout and unfolding economic recovery.The first quarter will be time for a growing number of companies to live up to the hype. Airlines, hotels, and the like will still likely get a pass given their particularly pandemic-sensitive businesses, and a rosy outlook might suffice there. But investors will be holding a broader range of companies to account than they have since the start of the pandemic. Rapid year-over-year growth is priced into the market.That’s a recipe for overall lukewarm—at best—reactions to what would normally be seen as very strong earnings. Take last earnings season, when companies that beat Wall Street numbers on both revenues and earnings per share actually saw their stock prices lag behind the S&P 500 by 0.1 percentage point the next day, according to Savita Subramanian, BofA Securities’ chief U.S. equity and quantitative strategist. That was the worst relative performance, or alpha, for double beats on record.This earnings season might not be all that different on that front, Subramanian argues. “Investors were unenthused by a big beat last quarter,” she wrote on Monday. “The only time in history (since 2000) that we saw negative alpha was in 2Q00, right at the peak of the Tech Bubble. Limited rewards indicate good news being priced in, and the rally since the last earnings season plus building euphoric sentiment lead us to suspect that a significant earnings beat may not translate to big market gains.”For reopening-sensitive companies like restaurants, retailers, and other in-person dependent businesses, the focus will likely be on management commentary about how consumer behavior evolved over the quarter as the winter spike in Covid-19 cases eased, vaccinations accelerated, and government restrictions eased in much of the country. That will be seen as a preview of what’s to come later in 2021.Investors will also be listening intently to what management teams have to say about their supply chains and input costs. Beyond impacting profit margins, rising commodity prices and growing production constraints could keep companies from fully taking advantage of pent-up demand for their products. Warnings on that front could overshadow strong first-quarter results and lead to reduced earnings estimates for the remainder of 2021. Margins are expected to tighten for industrials and consumer staples firms, by 16% and 2%, respectively.More quantifiably, investors will also be interested in what managements plan to do with their normalizing or growing cash flows as the pandemic recedes. “The sharp acceleration in earnings and [free cash flow] will increase the focus on how corporates decide to use their cash,” wrote UBS ’ chief U.S. equity strategist Keith Parker on Monday. “We see upside to capex and IT spend. We believe there is room to ramp up net buybacks to >$600bn (+50%) this year.”Finally, formal quarterly or full-year 2021 guidance may be the make-or-break variable for companies that didn’t surprise on earnings and sales in one direction or the other. Uncertainty regarding Covid-19 and economic outlook remain, but companies have now had a full year of operating in a pandemic, and most should be able to extrapolate the trends they’ve seen so far in 2021.Companies reporting in the coming days include Goldman Sachs Group (ticker: GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC) on Wednesday, followed by Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Delta Air Lines (DAL), PepsiCo (PEP), and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) on Thursday. Kansas City Southern (KSU) and Morgan Stanley (MS) report on Friday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":345671506,"gmtCreate":1618314040705,"gmtModify":1634293786750,"author":{"id":"3570525287776594","authorId":"3570525287776594","name":"Kelvin27","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88a4920af1707aeb14091b74ce7e2771","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3570525287776594","authorIdStr":"3570525287776594"},"htmlText":"Reply me","listText":"Reply me","text":"Reply me","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345671506","repostId":1131702206,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131702206","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618310678,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131702206?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-13 18:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Expectations Are High for This Earnings Season. Here’s What to Look For.<blockquote>人们对本财报季的期望很高。以下是要寻找的内容。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131702206","media":"Barron's","summary":"First-quarter earnings season kicks off this week as several large U.S. banks report their results f","content":"First-quarter earnings season kicks off this week as several large U.S. banks report their results for the first three months of 2021. Expectations are high, with sales and profit forecasts rising through the quarter and shares rallying into the spring. It’s likely to be a blockbuster earnings season for many companies’ fundamentals, but their stock-price reactions may be more of a letdown. Investors should look to margins, spending plans, and management commentary to get the full picture.<blockquote>随着美国几家大型银行公布2021年前三个月的业绩，第一季度财报季将于本周拉开帷幕。人们的期望很高，整个季度的销售额和利润预测都在上升，股价也在春季反弹。对于许多公司的基本面来说，这可能是一个重磅财报季，但它们的股价反应可能更令人失望。投资者应该关注利润率、支出计划和管理层评论以了解全貌。</blockquote>Wall Street analysts’ bottom-up forecast is for first-quarter S&amp;P 500 earnings per share to jump by 21% year over year on a 6.4% rise in revenue, per data from Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist. The biggest relative gains are naturally seen coming from the more cyclical areas of the market: the S&amp;P 500 consumer discretionary sector is expected to report earnings per share growth of 82%, followed by 77% for financials and 45% for materials.<blockquote>根据瑞士信贷首席美国股票策略师Jonathan Golub的数据，华尔街分析师自下而上的预测是，标普500第一季度每股收益将同比增长21%，营收增长6.4%。最大的相对收益自然来自市场周期性较强的领域：标普500非必需消费品行业预计每股收益将增长82%，其次是金融股77%和材料股45%。</blockquote>That’s thanks to an improving economy, higher commodity prices, and an easy comparison to the year-ago period, which included several weeks of harsh lockdowns across the globe. The consensus earnings forecast is just 2% above 2019’s first quarter, before the Covid-19 pandemic. It follows 1% year-over-year profit growth in the fourth quarter of 2020. And the second quarter is expected to be even more explosive: a 51% surge in S&amp;P 500 earnings per share is the consensus estimate.<blockquote>这要归功于经济改善、大宗商品价格上涨以及与去年同期（其中包括全球范围内数周的严厉封锁）的轻松比较。市场普遍的盈利预测仅比Covid-19大流行之前的2019年第一季度高出2%。此前，2020年第四季度利润同比增长1%。预计第二季度将更具爆炸性：市场普遍预计标普500每股收益将飙升51%。</blockquote>The complicating factor for investors coming into this earnings season is that a strong rebound in earnings is far from a secret. Stocks have rallied in recent months, to record highs after record highs, as the market has focused on the accelerating vaccine rollout and unfolding economic recovery.<blockquote>对于进入本财报季的投资者来说，一个复杂的因素是，盈利的强劲反弹远非秘密。近几个月来，随着市场关注疫苗加速推出和经济复苏的展开，股市不断上涨，屡创新高。</blockquote>The first quarter will be time for a growing number of companies to live up to the hype. Airlines, hotels, and the like will still likely get a pass given their particularly pandemic-sensitive businesses, and a rosy outlook might suffice there. But investors will be holding a broader range of companies to account than they have since the start of the pandemic. Rapid year-over-year growth is priced into the market.<blockquote>第一季度将是越来越多的公司不负众望的时候。鉴于航空公司、酒店等对流行病特别敏感的业务，它们仍有可能获得通行证，乐观的前景可能就足够了。但与大流行开始以来相比，投资者将对更广泛的公司承担责任。同比快速增长已被市场消化。</blockquote>That’s a recipe for overall lukewarm—at best—reactions to what would normally be seen as very strong earnings. Take last earnings season, when companies that beat Wall Street numbers on both revenues and earnings per share actually saw their stock prices lag behind the S&amp;P 500 by 0.1 percentage point the next day, according to Savita Subramanian, BofA Securities’ chief U.S. equity and quantitative strategist. That was the worst relative performance, or alpha, for double beats on record.<blockquote>对于通常被视为非常强劲的盈利，总体反应充其量是不冷不热的。美国银行证券(BofA Securities)首席美国股票和量化策略师萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)表示，以上个财报季为例，收入和每股收益均超过华尔街的公司第二天股价实际上落后标普500 0.1个百分点。这是double beats有记录以来最差的相对表现，或称alpha。</blockquote>This earnings season might not be all that different on that front, Subramanian argues. “Investors were unenthused by a big beat last quarter,” she wrote on Monday. “The only time in history (since 2000) that we saw negative alpha was in 2Q00, right at the peak of the Tech Bubble. Limited rewards indicate good news being priced in, and the rally since the last earnings season plus building euphoric sentiment lead us to suspect that a significant earnings beat may not translate to big market gains.”<blockquote>萨勃拉曼尼亚认为，这个财报季在这方面可能不会有太大不同。“投资者对上个季度的大幅上涨并不感兴趣，”她周一写道。“历史上（自2000年以来）我们唯一一次看到负阿尔法是在2000年第二季度，当时正值科技泡沫的高峰期。有限的回报表明好消息已被定价，自上一财报季以来的反弹加上日益增强的乐观情绪导致我们怀疑盈利大幅增长可能不会转化为市场大幅上涨。”</blockquote>For reopening-sensitive companies like restaurants, retailers, and other in-person dependent businesses, the focus will likely be on management commentary about how consumer behavior evolved over the quarter as the winter spike in Covid-19 cases eased, vaccinations accelerated, and government restrictions eased in much of the country. That will be seen as a preview of what’s to come later in 2021.<blockquote>对于餐馆、零售商和其他依赖面对面的企业等对重新开业敏感的公司来说，重点可能是管理层对随着Covid-19病例冬季高峰缓解、疫苗接种加速以及政府限制在该国大部分地区放松的情况下消费者行为在本季度如何演变的评论。这将被视为2021年晚些时候发生的事情的预演。</blockquote>Investors will also be listening intently to what management teams have to say about their supply chains and input costs. Beyond impacting profit margins, rising commodity prices and growing production constraints could keep companies from fully taking advantage of pent-up demand for their products. Warnings on that front could overshadow strong first-quarter results and lead to reduced earnings estimates for the remainder of 2021. Margins are expected to tighten for industrials and consumer staples firms, by 16% and 2%, respectively.<blockquote>投资者还将认真倾听管理团队对其供应链和投入成本的看法。除了影响利润率之外，大宗商品价格上涨和生产限制加剧可能会使企业无法充分利用被压抑的产品需求。这方面的警告可能会掩盖强劲的第一季度业绩，并导致2021年剩余时间的盈利预期下调。工业和消费必需品公司的利润率预计将分别收紧16%和2%。</blockquote>More quantifiably, investors will also be interested in what managements plan to do with their normalizing or growing cash flows as the pandemic recedes. “The sharp acceleration in earnings and [free cash flow] will increase the focus on how corporates decide to use their cash,” wrote UBS ’ chief U.S. equity strategist Keith Parker on Monday. “We see upside to capex and IT spend. We believe there is room to ramp up net buybacks to &gt;$600bn (+50%) this year.”<blockquote>更可以量化的是，随着疫情的消退，投资者还将对管理层计划如何处理正常化或增长的现金流感兴趣。瑞银首席美国股票策略师基思·帕克周一写道：“盈利和[自由现金流]的急剧加速将增加人们对企业如何决定使用现金的关注。”“我们看到资本支出和IT支出的上升空间。我们相信今年净回购有空间增加到6000亿美元以上（+50%）。”</blockquote>Finally, formal quarterly or full-year 2021 guidance may be the make-or-break variable for companies that didn’t surprise on earnings and sales in one direction or the other. Uncertainty regarding Covid-19 and economic outlook remain, but companies have now had a full year of operating in a pandemic, and most should be able to extrapolate the trends they’ve seen so far in 2021.<blockquote>最后，对于那些在一个方向或另一个方向的盈利和销售额上没有感到意外的公司来说，正式的2021年季度或全年指引可能是成败的变量。有关Covid-19和经济前景的不确定性仍然存在，但公司现在已经在大流行中运营了一整年，大多数公司应该能够推断出2021年迄今为止看到的趋势。</blockquote>Companies reporting in the coming days include Goldman Sachs Group (ticker: GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC) on Wednesday, followed by Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Delta Air Lines (DAL), PepsiCo (PEP), and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) on Thursday. Kansas City Southern (KSU) and Morgan Stanley (MS) report on Friday.<blockquote>未来几天将发布财报的公司包括周三的高盛集团（股票代码：GS）、摩根大通（JPM）和富国银行（WFC），其次是美国银行（BAC）、花旗集团（C）、达美航空（DAL）周四）、百事可乐（PEP）和联合健康集团（UNH）。堪萨斯城南方银行（KSU）和摩根士丹利（MS）周五发布报告。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Expectations Are High for This Earnings Season. Here’s What to Look For.<blockquote>人们对本财报季的期望很高。以下是要寻找的内容。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nExpectations Are High for This Earnings Season. Here’s What to Look For.<blockquote>人们对本财报季的期望很高。以下是要寻找的内容。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-04-13 18:44\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nFirst-quarter earnings season kicks off this week as several large U.S. banks report their results for the first three months of 2021. Expectations are high, with sales and profit forecasts rising through the quarter and shares rallying into the spring. It’s likely to be a blockbuster earnings season for many companies’ fundamentals, but their stock-price reactions may be more of a letdown. Investors should look to margins, spending plans, and management commentary to get the full picture.<blockquote>随着美国几家大型银行公布2021年前三个月的业绩，第一季度财报季将于本周拉开帷幕。人们的期望很高，整个季度的销售额和利润预测都在上升，股价也在春季反弹。对于许多公司的基本面来说，这可能是一个重磅财报季，但它们的股价反应可能更令人失望。投资者应该关注利润率、支出计划和管理层评论以了解全貌。</blockquote>Wall Street analysts’ bottom-up forecast is for first-quarter S&amp;P 500 earnings per share to jump by 21% year over year on a 6.4% rise in revenue, per data from Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist. The biggest relative gains are naturally seen coming from the more cyclical areas of the market: the S&amp;P 500 consumer discretionary sector is expected to report earnings per share growth of 82%, followed by 77% for financials and 45% for materials.<blockquote>根据瑞士信贷首席美国股票策略师Jonathan Golub的数据，华尔街分析师自下而上的预测是，标普500第一季度每股收益将同比增长21%，营收增长6.4%。最大的相对收益自然来自市场周期性较强的领域：标普500非必需消费品行业预计每股收益将增长82%，其次是金融股77%和材料股45%。</blockquote>That’s thanks to an improving economy, higher commodity prices, and an easy comparison to the year-ago period, which included several weeks of harsh lockdowns across the globe. The consensus earnings forecast is just 2% above 2019’s first quarter, before the Covid-19 pandemic. It follows 1% year-over-year profit growth in the fourth quarter of 2020. And the second quarter is expected to be even more explosive: a 51% surge in S&amp;P 500 earnings per share is the consensus estimate.<blockquote>这要归功于经济改善、大宗商品价格上涨以及与去年同期（其中包括全球范围内数周的严厉封锁）的轻松比较。市场普遍的盈利预测仅比Covid-19大流行之前的2019年第一季度高出2%。此前，2020年第四季度利润同比增长1%。预计第二季度将更具爆炸性：市场普遍预计标普500每股收益将飙升51%。</blockquote>The complicating factor for investors coming into this earnings season is that a strong rebound in earnings is far from a secret. Stocks have rallied in recent months, to record highs after record highs, as the market has focused on the accelerating vaccine rollout and unfolding economic recovery.<blockquote>对于进入本财报季的投资者来说，一个复杂的因素是，盈利的强劲反弹远非秘密。近几个月来，随着市场关注疫苗加速推出和经济复苏的展开，股市不断上涨，屡创新高。</blockquote>The first quarter will be time for a growing number of companies to live up to the hype. Airlines, hotels, and the like will still likely get a pass given their particularly pandemic-sensitive businesses, and a rosy outlook might suffice there. But investors will be holding a broader range of companies to account than they have since the start of the pandemic. Rapid year-over-year growth is priced into the market.<blockquote>第一季度将是越来越多的公司不负众望的时候。鉴于航空公司、酒店等对流行病特别敏感的业务，它们仍有可能获得通行证，乐观的前景可能就足够了。但与大流行开始以来相比，投资者将对更广泛的公司承担责任。同比快速增长已被市场消化。</blockquote>That’s a recipe for overall lukewarm—at best—reactions to what would normally be seen as very strong earnings. Take last earnings season, when companies that beat Wall Street numbers on both revenues and earnings per share actually saw their stock prices lag behind the S&amp;P 500 by 0.1 percentage point the next day, according to Savita Subramanian, BofA Securities’ chief U.S. equity and quantitative strategist. That was the worst relative performance, or alpha, for double beats on record.<blockquote>对于通常被视为非常强劲的盈利，总体反应充其量是不冷不热的。美国银行证券(BofA Securities)首席美国股票和量化策略师萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)表示，以上个财报季为例，收入和每股收益均超过华尔街的公司第二天股价实际上落后标普500 0.1个百分点。这是double beats有记录以来最差的相对表现，或称alpha。</blockquote>This earnings season might not be all that different on that front, Subramanian argues. “Investors were unenthused by a big beat last quarter,” she wrote on Monday. “The only time in history (since 2000) that we saw negative alpha was in 2Q00, right at the peak of the Tech Bubble. Limited rewards indicate good news being priced in, and the rally since the last earnings season plus building euphoric sentiment lead us to suspect that a significant earnings beat may not translate to big market gains.”<blockquote>萨勃拉曼尼亚认为，这个财报季在这方面可能不会有太大不同。“投资者对上个季度的大幅上涨并不感兴趣，”她周一写道。“历史上（自2000年以来）我们唯一一次看到负阿尔法是在2000年第二季度，当时正值科技泡沫的高峰期。有限的回报表明好消息已被定价，自上一财报季以来的反弹加上日益增强的乐观情绪导致我们怀疑盈利大幅增长可能不会转化为市场大幅上涨。”</blockquote>For reopening-sensitive companies like restaurants, retailers, and other in-person dependent businesses, the focus will likely be on management commentary about how consumer behavior evolved over the quarter as the winter spike in Covid-19 cases eased, vaccinations accelerated, and government restrictions eased in much of the country. That will be seen as a preview of what’s to come later in 2021.<blockquote>对于餐馆、零售商和其他依赖面对面的企业等对重新开业敏感的公司来说，重点可能是管理层对随着Covid-19病例冬季高峰缓解、疫苗接种加速以及政府限制在该国大部分地区放松的情况下消费者行为在本季度如何演变的评论。这将被视为2021年晚些时候发生的事情的预演。</blockquote>Investors will also be listening intently to what management teams have to say about their supply chains and input costs. Beyond impacting profit margins, rising commodity prices and growing production constraints could keep companies from fully taking advantage of pent-up demand for their products. Warnings on that front could overshadow strong first-quarter results and lead to reduced earnings estimates for the remainder of 2021. Margins are expected to tighten for industrials and consumer staples firms, by 16% and 2%, respectively.<blockquote>投资者还将认真倾听管理团队对其供应链和投入成本的看法。除了影响利润率之外，大宗商品价格上涨和生产限制加剧可能会使企业无法充分利用被压抑的产品需求。这方面的警告可能会掩盖强劲的第一季度业绩，并导致2021年剩余时间的盈利预期下调。工业和消费必需品公司的利润率预计将分别收紧16%和2%。</blockquote>More quantifiably, investors will also be interested in what managements plan to do with their normalizing or growing cash flows as the pandemic recedes. “The sharp acceleration in earnings and [free cash flow] will increase the focus on how corporates decide to use their cash,” wrote UBS ’ chief U.S. equity strategist Keith Parker on Monday. “We see upside to capex and IT spend. We believe there is room to ramp up net buybacks to &gt;$600bn (+50%) this year.”<blockquote>更可以量化的是，随着疫情的消退，投资者还将对管理层计划如何处理正常化或增长的现金流感兴趣。瑞银首席美国股票策略师基思·帕克周一写道：“盈利和[自由现金流]的急剧加速将增加人们对企业如何决定使用现金的关注。”“我们看到资本支出和IT支出的上升空间。我们相信今年净回购有空间增加到6000亿美元以上（+50%）。”</blockquote>Finally, formal quarterly or full-year 2021 guidance may be the make-or-break variable for companies that didn’t surprise on earnings and sales in one direction or the other. Uncertainty regarding Covid-19 and economic outlook remain, but companies have now had a full year of operating in a pandemic, and most should be able to extrapolate the trends they’ve seen so far in 2021.<blockquote>最后，对于那些在一个方向或另一个方向的盈利和销售额上没有感到意外的公司来说，正式的2021年季度或全年指引可能是成败的变量。有关Covid-19和经济前景的不确定性仍然存在，但公司现在已经在大流行中运营了一整年，大多数公司应该能够推断出2021年迄今为止看到的趋势。</blockquote>Companies reporting in the coming days include Goldman Sachs Group (ticker: GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC) on Wednesday, followed by Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Delta Air Lines (DAL), PepsiCo (PEP), and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) on Thursday. Kansas City Southern (KSU) and Morgan Stanley (MS) report on Friday.<blockquote>未来几天将发布财报的公司包括周三的高盛集团（股票代码：GS）、摩根大通（JPM）和富国银行（WFC），其次是美国银行（BAC）、花旗集团（C）、达美航空（DAL）周四）、百事可乐（PEP）和联合健康集团（UNH）。堪萨斯城南方银行（KSU）和摩根士丹利（MS）周五发布报告。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/expectations-are-high-for-this-earnings-season-heres-what-to-look-for-51618266227?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/expectations-are-high-for-this-earnings-season-heres-what-to-look-for-51618266227?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131702206","content_text":"First-quarter earnings season kicks off this week as several large U.S. banks report their results for the first three months of 2021. Expectations are high, with sales and profit forecasts rising through the quarter and shares rallying into the spring. It’s likely to be a blockbuster earnings season for many companies’ fundamentals, but their stock-price reactions may be more of a letdown. Investors should look to margins, spending plans, and management commentary to get the full picture.Wall Street analysts’ bottom-up forecast is for first-quarter S&P 500 earnings per share to jump by 21% year over year on a 6.4% rise in revenue, per data from Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist. The biggest relative gains are naturally seen coming from the more cyclical areas of the market: the S&P 500 consumer discretionary sector is expected to report earnings per share growth of 82%, followed by 77% for financials and 45% for materials.That’s thanks to an improving economy, higher commodity prices, and an easy comparison to the year-ago period, which included several weeks of harsh lockdowns across the globe. The consensus earnings forecast is just 2% above 2019’s first quarter, before the Covid-19 pandemic. It follows 1% year-over-year profit growth in the fourth quarter of 2020. And the second quarter is expected to be even more explosive: a 51% surge in S&P 500 earnings per share is the consensus estimate.The complicating factor for investors coming into this earnings season is that a strong rebound in earnings is far from a secret. Stocks have rallied in recent months, to record highs after record highs, as the market has focused on the accelerating vaccine rollout and unfolding economic recovery.The first quarter will be time for a growing number of companies to live up to the hype. Airlines, hotels, and the like will still likely get a pass given their particularly pandemic-sensitive businesses, and a rosy outlook might suffice there. But investors will be holding a broader range of companies to account than they have since the start of the pandemic. Rapid year-over-year growth is priced into the market.That’s a recipe for overall lukewarm—at best—reactions to what would normally be seen as very strong earnings. Take last earnings season, when companies that beat Wall Street numbers on both revenues and earnings per share actually saw their stock prices lag behind the S&P 500 by 0.1 percentage point the next day, according to Savita Subramanian, BofA Securities’ chief U.S. equity and quantitative strategist. That was the worst relative performance, or alpha, for double beats on record.This earnings season might not be all that different on that front, Subramanian argues. “Investors were unenthused by a big beat last quarter,” she wrote on Monday. “The only time in history (since 2000) that we saw negative alpha was in 2Q00, right at the peak of the Tech Bubble. Limited rewards indicate good news being priced in, and the rally since the last earnings season plus building euphoric sentiment lead us to suspect that a significant earnings beat may not translate to big market gains.”For reopening-sensitive companies like restaurants, retailers, and other in-person dependent businesses, the focus will likely be on management commentary about how consumer behavior evolved over the quarter as the winter spike in Covid-19 cases eased, vaccinations accelerated, and government restrictions eased in much of the country. That will be seen as a preview of what’s to come later in 2021.Investors will also be listening intently to what management teams have to say about their supply chains and input costs. Beyond impacting profit margins, rising commodity prices and growing production constraints could keep companies from fully taking advantage of pent-up demand for their products. Warnings on that front could overshadow strong first-quarter results and lead to reduced earnings estimates for the remainder of 2021. Margins are expected to tighten for industrials and consumer staples firms, by 16% and 2%, respectively.More quantifiably, investors will also be interested in what managements plan to do with their normalizing or growing cash flows as the pandemic recedes. “The sharp acceleration in earnings and [free cash flow] will increase the focus on how corporates decide to use their cash,” wrote UBS ’ chief U.S. equity strategist Keith Parker on Monday. “We see upside to capex and IT spend. We believe there is room to ramp up net buybacks to >$600bn (+50%) this year.”Finally, formal quarterly or full-year 2021 guidance may be the make-or-break variable for companies that didn’t surprise on earnings and sales in one direction or the other. Uncertainty regarding Covid-19 and economic outlook remain, but companies have now had a full year of operating in a pandemic, and most should be able to extrapolate the trends they’ve seen so far in 2021.Companies reporting in the coming days include Goldman Sachs Group (ticker: GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC) on Wednesday, followed by Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Delta Air Lines (DAL), PepsiCo (PEP), and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) on Thursday. Kansas City Southern (KSU) and Morgan Stanley (MS) report on Friday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":345679335,"gmtCreate":1618313721927,"gmtModify":1634293788764,"author":{"id":"3569586413767440","authorId":"3569586413767440","name":"HoeMeng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/204cb10cf0f04fed8899705e7a54ea54","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3569586413767440","authorIdStr":"3569586413767440"},"htmlText":"Bull lai le&nbsp;","listText":"Bull lai le&nbsp;","text":"Bull lai le","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345679335","repostId":1131702206,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131702206","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618310678,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131702206?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-13 18:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Expectations Are High for This Earnings Season. Here’s What to Look For.<blockquote>人们对本财报季的期望很高。以下是要寻找的内容。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131702206","media":"Barron's","summary":"First-quarter earnings season kicks off this week as several large U.S. banks report their results f","content":"First-quarter earnings season kicks off this week as several large U.S. banks report their results for the first three months of 2021. Expectations are high, with sales and profit forecasts rising through the quarter and shares rallying into the spring. It’s likely to be a blockbuster earnings season for many companies’ fundamentals, but their stock-price reactions may be more of a letdown. Investors should look to margins, spending plans, and management commentary to get the full picture.<blockquote>随着美国几家大型银行公布2021年前三个月的业绩，第一季度财报季将于本周拉开帷幕。人们的期望很高，整个季度的销售额和利润预测都在上升，股价也在春季反弹。对于许多公司的基本面来说，这可能是一个重磅财报季，但它们的股价反应可能更令人失望。投资者应该关注利润率、支出计划和管理层评论以了解全貌。</blockquote>Wall Street analysts’ bottom-up forecast is for first-quarter S&amp;P 500 earnings per share to jump by 21% year over year on a 6.4% rise in revenue, per data from Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist. The biggest relative gains are naturally seen coming from the more cyclical areas of the market: the S&amp;P 500 consumer discretionary sector is expected to report earnings per share growth of 82%, followed by 77% for financials and 45% for materials.<blockquote>根据瑞士信贷首席美国股票策略师Jonathan Golub的数据，华尔街分析师自下而上的预测是，标普500第一季度每股收益将同比增长21%，营收增长6.4%。最大的相对收益自然来自市场周期性较强的领域：标普500非必需消费品行业预计每股收益将增长82%，其次是金融股77%和材料股45%。</blockquote>That’s thanks to an improving economy, higher commodity prices, and an easy comparison to the year-ago period, which included several weeks of harsh lockdowns across the globe. The consensus earnings forecast is just 2% above 2019’s first quarter, before the Covid-19 pandemic. It follows 1% year-over-year profit growth in the fourth quarter of 2020. And the second quarter is expected to be even more explosive: a 51% surge in S&amp;P 500 earnings per share is the consensus estimate.<blockquote>这要归功于经济改善、大宗商品价格上涨以及与去年同期（其中包括全球范围内数周的严厉封锁）的轻松比较。市场普遍的盈利预测仅比Covid-19大流行之前的2019年第一季度高出2%。此前，2020年第四季度利润同比增长1%。预计第二季度将更具爆炸性：市场普遍预计标普500每股收益将飙升51%。</blockquote>The complicating factor for investors coming into this earnings season is that a strong rebound in earnings is far from a secret. Stocks have rallied in recent months, to record highs after record highs, as the market has focused on the accelerating vaccine rollout and unfolding economic recovery.<blockquote>对于进入本财报季的投资者来说，一个复杂的因素是，盈利的强劲反弹远非秘密。近几个月来，随着市场关注疫苗加速推出和经济复苏的展开，股市不断上涨，屡创新高。</blockquote>The first quarter will be time for a growing number of companies to live up to the hype. Airlines, hotels, and the like will still likely get a pass given their particularly pandemic-sensitive businesses, and a rosy outlook might suffice there. But investors will be holding a broader range of companies to account than they have since the start of the pandemic. Rapid year-over-year growth is priced into the market.<blockquote>第一季度将是越来越多的公司不负众望的时候。鉴于航空公司、酒店等对流行病特别敏感的业务，它们仍有可能获得通行证，乐观的前景可能就足够了。但与大流行开始以来相比，投资者将对更广泛的公司承担责任。同比快速增长已被市场消化。</blockquote>That’s a recipe for overall lukewarm—at best—reactions to what would normally be seen as very strong earnings. Take last earnings season, when companies that beat Wall Street numbers on both revenues and earnings per share actually saw their stock prices lag behind the S&amp;P 500 by 0.1 percentage point the next day, according to Savita Subramanian, BofA Securities’ chief U.S. equity and quantitative strategist. That was the worst relative performance, or alpha, for double beats on record.<blockquote>对于通常被视为非常强劲的盈利，总体反应充其量是不冷不热的。美国银行证券(BofA Securities)首席美国股票和量化策略师萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)表示，以上个财报季为例，收入和每股收益均超过华尔街的公司第二天股价实际上落后标普500 0.1个百分点。这是double beats有记录以来最差的相对表现，或称alpha。</blockquote>This earnings season might not be all that different on that front, Subramanian argues. “Investors were unenthused by a big beat last quarter,” she wrote on Monday. “The only time in history (since 2000) that we saw negative alpha was in 2Q00, right at the peak of the Tech Bubble. Limited rewards indicate good news being priced in, and the rally since the last earnings season plus building euphoric sentiment lead us to suspect that a significant earnings beat may not translate to big market gains.”<blockquote>萨勃拉曼尼亚认为，这个财报季在这方面可能不会有太大不同。“投资者对上个季度的大幅上涨并不感兴趣，”她周一写道。“历史上（自2000年以来）我们唯一一次看到负阿尔法是在2000年第二季度，当时正值科技泡沫的高峰期。有限的回报表明好消息已被定价，自上一财报季以来的反弹加上日益增强的乐观情绪导致我们怀疑盈利大幅增长可能不会转化为市场大幅上涨。”</blockquote>For reopening-sensitive companies like restaurants, retailers, and other in-person dependent businesses, the focus will likely be on management commentary about how consumer behavior evolved over the quarter as the winter spike in Covid-19 cases eased, vaccinations accelerated, and government restrictions eased in much of the country. That will be seen as a preview of what’s to come later in 2021.<blockquote>对于餐馆、零售商和其他依赖面对面的企业等对重新开业敏感的公司来说，重点可能是管理层对随着Covid-19病例冬季高峰缓解、疫苗接种加速以及政府限制在该国大部分地区放松的情况下消费者行为在本季度如何演变的评论。这将被视为2021年晚些时候发生的事情的预演。</blockquote>Investors will also be listening intently to what management teams have to say about their supply chains and input costs. Beyond impacting profit margins, rising commodity prices and growing production constraints could keep companies from fully taking advantage of pent-up demand for their products. Warnings on that front could overshadow strong first-quarter results and lead to reduced earnings estimates for the remainder of 2021. Margins are expected to tighten for industrials and consumer staples firms, by 16% and 2%, respectively.<blockquote>投资者还将认真倾听管理团队对其供应链和投入成本的看法。除了影响利润率之外，大宗商品价格上涨和生产限制加剧可能会使企业无法充分利用被压抑的产品需求。这方面的警告可能会掩盖强劲的第一季度业绩，并导致2021年剩余时间的盈利预期下调。工业和消费必需品公司的利润率预计将分别收紧16%和2%。</blockquote>More quantifiably, investors will also be interested in what managements plan to do with their normalizing or growing cash flows as the pandemic recedes. “The sharp acceleration in earnings and [free cash flow] will increase the focus on how corporates decide to use their cash,” wrote UBS ’ chief U.S. equity strategist Keith Parker on Monday. “We see upside to capex and IT spend. We believe there is room to ramp up net buybacks to &gt;$600bn (+50%) this year.”<blockquote>更可以量化的是，随着疫情的消退，投资者还将对管理层计划如何处理正常化或增长的现金流感兴趣。瑞银首席美国股票策略师基思·帕克周一写道：“盈利和[自由现金流]的急剧加速将增加人们对企业如何决定使用现金的关注。”“我们看到资本支出和IT支出的上升空间。我们相信今年净回购有空间增加到6000亿美元以上（+50%）。”</blockquote>Finally, formal quarterly or full-year 2021 guidance may be the make-or-break variable for companies that didn’t surprise on earnings and sales in one direction or the other. Uncertainty regarding Covid-19 and economic outlook remain, but companies have now had a full year of operating in a pandemic, and most should be able to extrapolate the trends they’ve seen so far in 2021.<blockquote>最后，对于那些在一个方向或另一个方向的盈利和销售额上没有感到意外的公司来说，正式的2021年季度或全年指引可能是成败的变量。有关Covid-19和经济前景的不确定性仍然存在，但公司现在已经在大流行中运营了一整年，大多数公司应该能够推断出2021年迄今为止看到的趋势。</blockquote>Companies reporting in the coming days include Goldman Sachs Group (ticker: GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC) on Wednesday, followed by Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Delta Air Lines (DAL), PepsiCo (PEP), and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) on Thursday. Kansas City Southern (KSU) and Morgan Stanley (MS) report on Friday.<blockquote>未来几天将发布财报的公司包括周三的高盛集团（股票代码：GS）、摩根大通（JPM）和富国银行（WFC），其次是美国银行（BAC）、花旗集团（C）、达美航空（DAL）周四）、百事可乐（PEP）和联合健康集团（UNH）。堪萨斯城南方银行（KSU）和摩根士丹利（MS）周五发布报告。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Expectations Are High for This Earnings Season. Here’s What to Look For.<blockquote>人们对本财报季的期望很高。以下是要寻找的内容。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nExpectations Are High for This Earnings Season. Here’s What to Look For.<blockquote>人们对本财报季的期望很高。以下是要寻找的内容。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-04-13 18:44\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nFirst-quarter earnings season kicks off this week as several large U.S. banks report their results for the first three months of 2021. Expectations are high, with sales and profit forecasts rising through the quarter and shares rallying into the spring. It’s likely to be a blockbuster earnings season for many companies’ fundamentals, but their stock-price reactions may be more of a letdown. Investors should look to margins, spending plans, and management commentary to get the full picture.<blockquote>随着美国几家大型银行公布2021年前三个月的业绩，第一季度财报季将于本周拉开帷幕。人们的期望很高，整个季度的销售额和利润预测都在上升，股价也在春季反弹。对于许多公司的基本面来说，这可能是一个重磅财报季，但它们的股价反应可能更令人失望。投资者应该关注利润率、支出计划和管理层评论以了解全貌。</blockquote>Wall Street analysts’ bottom-up forecast is for first-quarter S&amp;P 500 earnings per share to jump by 21% year over year on a 6.4% rise in revenue, per data from Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist. The biggest relative gains are naturally seen coming from the more cyclical areas of the market: the S&amp;P 500 consumer discretionary sector is expected to report earnings per share growth of 82%, followed by 77% for financials and 45% for materials.<blockquote>根据瑞士信贷首席美国股票策略师Jonathan Golub的数据，华尔街分析师自下而上的预测是，标普500第一季度每股收益将同比增长21%，营收增长6.4%。最大的相对收益自然来自市场周期性较强的领域：标普500非必需消费品行业预计每股收益将增长82%，其次是金融股77%和材料股45%。</blockquote>That’s thanks to an improving economy, higher commodity prices, and an easy comparison to the year-ago period, which included several weeks of harsh lockdowns across the globe. The consensus earnings forecast is just 2% above 2019’s first quarter, before the Covid-19 pandemic. It follows 1% year-over-year profit growth in the fourth quarter of 2020. And the second quarter is expected to be even more explosive: a 51% surge in S&amp;P 500 earnings per share is the consensus estimate.<blockquote>这要归功于经济改善、大宗商品价格上涨以及与去年同期（其中包括全球范围内数周的严厉封锁）的轻松比较。市场普遍的盈利预测仅比Covid-19大流行之前的2019年第一季度高出2%。此前，2020年第四季度利润同比增长1%。预计第二季度将更具爆炸性：市场普遍预计标普500每股收益将飙升51%。</blockquote>The complicating factor for investors coming into this earnings season is that a strong rebound in earnings is far from a secret. Stocks have rallied in recent months, to record highs after record highs, as the market has focused on the accelerating vaccine rollout and unfolding economic recovery.<blockquote>对于进入本财报季的投资者来说，一个复杂的因素是，盈利的强劲反弹远非秘密。近几个月来，随着市场关注疫苗加速推出和经济复苏的展开，股市不断上涨，屡创新高。</blockquote>The first quarter will be time for a growing number of companies to live up to the hype. Airlines, hotels, and the like will still likely get a pass given their particularly pandemic-sensitive businesses, and a rosy outlook might suffice there. But investors will be holding a broader range of companies to account than they have since the start of the pandemic. Rapid year-over-year growth is priced into the market.<blockquote>第一季度将是越来越多的公司不负众望的时候。鉴于航空公司、酒店等对流行病特别敏感的业务，它们仍有可能获得通行证，乐观的前景可能就足够了。但与大流行开始以来相比，投资者将对更广泛的公司承担责任。同比快速增长已被市场消化。</blockquote>That’s a recipe for overall lukewarm—at best—reactions to what would normally be seen as very strong earnings. Take last earnings season, when companies that beat Wall Street numbers on both revenues and earnings per share actually saw their stock prices lag behind the S&amp;P 500 by 0.1 percentage point the next day, according to Savita Subramanian, BofA Securities’ chief U.S. equity and quantitative strategist. That was the worst relative performance, or alpha, for double beats on record.<blockquote>对于通常被视为非常强劲的盈利，总体反应充其量是不冷不热的。美国银行证券(BofA Securities)首席美国股票和量化策略师萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)表示，以上个财报季为例，收入和每股收益均超过华尔街的公司第二天股价实际上落后标普500 0.1个百分点。这是double beats有记录以来最差的相对表现，或称alpha。</blockquote>This earnings season might not be all that different on that front, Subramanian argues. “Investors were unenthused by a big beat last quarter,” she wrote on Monday. “The only time in history (since 2000) that we saw negative alpha was in 2Q00, right at the peak of the Tech Bubble. Limited rewards indicate good news being priced in, and the rally since the last earnings season plus building euphoric sentiment lead us to suspect that a significant earnings beat may not translate to big market gains.”<blockquote>萨勃拉曼尼亚认为，这个财报季在这方面可能不会有太大不同。“投资者对上个季度的大幅上涨并不感兴趣，”她周一写道。“历史上（自2000年以来）我们唯一一次看到负阿尔法是在2000年第二季度，当时正值科技泡沫的高峰期。有限的回报表明好消息已被定价，自上一财报季以来的反弹加上日益增强的乐观情绪导致我们怀疑盈利大幅增长可能不会转化为市场大幅上涨。”</blockquote>For reopening-sensitive companies like restaurants, retailers, and other in-person dependent businesses, the focus will likely be on management commentary about how consumer behavior evolved over the quarter as the winter spike in Covid-19 cases eased, vaccinations accelerated, and government restrictions eased in much of the country. That will be seen as a preview of what’s to come later in 2021.<blockquote>对于餐馆、零售商和其他依赖面对面的企业等对重新开业敏感的公司来说，重点可能是管理层对随着Covid-19病例冬季高峰缓解、疫苗接种加速以及政府限制在该国大部分地区放松的情况下消费者行为在本季度如何演变的评论。这将被视为2021年晚些时候发生的事情的预演。</blockquote>Investors will also be listening intently to what management teams have to say about their supply chains and input costs. Beyond impacting profit margins, rising commodity prices and growing production constraints could keep companies from fully taking advantage of pent-up demand for their products. Warnings on that front could overshadow strong first-quarter results and lead to reduced earnings estimates for the remainder of 2021. Margins are expected to tighten for industrials and consumer staples firms, by 16% and 2%, respectively.<blockquote>投资者还将认真倾听管理团队对其供应链和投入成本的看法。除了影响利润率之外，大宗商品价格上涨和生产限制加剧可能会使企业无法充分利用被压抑的产品需求。这方面的警告可能会掩盖强劲的第一季度业绩，并导致2021年剩余时间的盈利预期下调。工业和消费必需品公司的利润率预计将分别收紧16%和2%。</blockquote>More quantifiably, investors will also be interested in what managements plan to do with their normalizing or growing cash flows as the pandemic recedes. “The sharp acceleration in earnings and [free cash flow] will increase the focus on how corporates decide to use their cash,” wrote UBS ’ chief U.S. equity strategist Keith Parker on Monday. “We see upside to capex and IT spend. We believe there is room to ramp up net buybacks to &gt;$600bn (+50%) this year.”<blockquote>更可以量化的是，随着疫情的消退，投资者还将对管理层计划如何处理正常化或增长的现金流感兴趣。瑞银首席美国股票策略师基思·帕克周一写道：“盈利和[自由现金流]的急剧加速将增加人们对企业如何决定使用现金的关注。”“我们看到资本支出和IT支出的上升空间。我们相信今年净回购有空间增加到6000亿美元以上（+50%）。”</blockquote>Finally, formal quarterly or full-year 2021 guidance may be the make-or-break variable for companies that didn’t surprise on earnings and sales in one direction or the other. Uncertainty regarding Covid-19 and economic outlook remain, but companies have now had a full year of operating in a pandemic, and most should be able to extrapolate the trends they’ve seen so far in 2021.<blockquote>最后，对于那些在一个方向或另一个方向的盈利和销售额上没有感到意外的公司来说，正式的2021年季度或全年指引可能是成败的变量。有关Covid-19和经济前景的不确定性仍然存在，但公司现在已经在大流行中运营了一整年，大多数公司应该能够推断出2021年迄今为止看到的趋势。</blockquote>Companies reporting in the coming days include Goldman Sachs Group (ticker: GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC) on Wednesday, followed by Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Delta Air Lines (DAL), PepsiCo (PEP), and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) on Thursday. Kansas City Southern (KSU) and Morgan Stanley (MS) report on Friday.<blockquote>未来几天将发布财报的公司包括周三的高盛集团（股票代码：GS）、摩根大通（JPM）和富国银行（WFC），其次是美国银行（BAC）、花旗集团（C）、达美航空（DAL）周四）、百事可乐（PEP）和联合健康集团（UNH）。堪萨斯城南方银行（KSU）和摩根士丹利（MS）周五发布报告。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/expectations-are-high-for-this-earnings-season-heres-what-to-look-for-51618266227?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/expectations-are-high-for-this-earnings-season-heres-what-to-look-for-51618266227?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131702206","content_text":"First-quarter earnings season kicks off this week as several large U.S. banks report their results for the first three months of 2021. Expectations are high, with sales and profit forecasts rising through the quarter and shares rallying into the spring. It’s likely to be a blockbuster earnings season for many companies’ fundamentals, but their stock-price reactions may be more of a letdown. Investors should look to margins, spending plans, and management commentary to get the full picture.Wall Street analysts’ bottom-up forecast is for first-quarter S&P 500 earnings per share to jump by 21% year over year on a 6.4% rise in revenue, per data from Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist. The biggest relative gains are naturally seen coming from the more cyclical areas of the market: the S&P 500 consumer discretionary sector is expected to report earnings per share growth of 82%, followed by 77% for financials and 45% for materials.That’s thanks to an improving economy, higher commodity prices, and an easy comparison to the year-ago period, which included several weeks of harsh lockdowns across the globe. The consensus earnings forecast is just 2% above 2019’s first quarter, before the Covid-19 pandemic. It follows 1% year-over-year profit growth in the fourth quarter of 2020. And the second quarter is expected to be even more explosive: a 51% surge in S&P 500 earnings per share is the consensus estimate.The complicating factor for investors coming into this earnings season is that a strong rebound in earnings is far from a secret. Stocks have rallied in recent months, to record highs after record highs, as the market has focused on the accelerating vaccine rollout and unfolding economic recovery.The first quarter will be time for a growing number of companies to live up to the hype. Airlines, hotels, and the like will still likely get a pass given their particularly pandemic-sensitive businesses, and a rosy outlook might suffice there. But investors will be holding a broader range of companies to account than they have since the start of the pandemic. Rapid year-over-year growth is priced into the market.That’s a recipe for overall lukewarm—at best—reactions to what would normally be seen as very strong earnings. Take last earnings season, when companies that beat Wall Street numbers on both revenues and earnings per share actually saw their stock prices lag behind the S&P 500 by 0.1 percentage point the next day, according to Savita Subramanian, BofA Securities’ chief U.S. equity and quantitative strategist. That was the worst relative performance, or alpha, for double beats on record.This earnings season might not be all that different on that front, Subramanian argues. “Investors were unenthused by a big beat last quarter,” she wrote on Monday. “The only time in history (since 2000) that we saw negative alpha was in 2Q00, right at the peak of the Tech Bubble. Limited rewards indicate good news being priced in, and the rally since the last earnings season plus building euphoric sentiment lead us to suspect that a significant earnings beat may not translate to big market gains.”For reopening-sensitive companies like restaurants, retailers, and other in-person dependent businesses, the focus will likely be on management commentary about how consumer behavior evolved over the quarter as the winter spike in Covid-19 cases eased, vaccinations accelerated, and government restrictions eased in much of the country. That will be seen as a preview of what’s to come later in 2021.Investors will also be listening intently to what management teams have to say about their supply chains and input costs. Beyond impacting profit margins, rising commodity prices and growing production constraints could keep companies from fully taking advantage of pent-up demand for their products. Warnings on that front could overshadow strong first-quarter results and lead to reduced earnings estimates for the remainder of 2021. Margins are expected to tighten for industrials and consumer staples firms, by 16% and 2%, respectively.More quantifiably, investors will also be interested in what managements plan to do with their normalizing or growing cash flows as the pandemic recedes. “The sharp acceleration in earnings and [free cash flow] will increase the focus on how corporates decide to use their cash,” wrote UBS ’ chief U.S. equity strategist Keith Parker on Monday. “We see upside to capex and IT spend. We believe there is room to ramp up net buybacks to >$600bn (+50%) this year.”Finally, formal quarterly or full-year 2021 guidance may be the make-or-break variable for companies that didn’t surprise on earnings and sales in one direction or the other. Uncertainty regarding Covid-19 and economic outlook remain, but companies have now had a full year of operating in a pandemic, and most should be able to extrapolate the trends they’ve seen so far in 2021.Companies reporting in the coming days include Goldman Sachs Group (ticker: GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC) on Wednesday, followed by Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Delta Air Lines (DAL), PepsiCo (PEP), and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) on Thursday. Kansas City Southern (KSU) and Morgan Stanley (MS) report on Friday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":345670753,"gmtCreate":1618313702072,"gmtModify":1634293789001,"author":{"id":"3569586413767440","authorId":"3569586413767440","name":"HoeMeng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/204cb10cf0f04fed8899705e7a54ea54","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3569586413767440","authorIdStr":"3569586413767440"},"htmlText":"Pls start to bull again","listText":"Pls start to bull again","text":"Pls start to bull again","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345670753","repostId":1131702206,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131702206","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618310678,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131702206?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-13 18:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Expectations Are High for This Earnings Season. Here’s What to Look For.<blockquote>人们对本财报季的期望很高。以下是要寻找的内容。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131702206","media":"Barron's","summary":"First-quarter earnings season kicks off this week as several large U.S. banks report their results f","content":"First-quarter earnings season kicks off this week as several large U.S. banks report their results for the first three months of 2021. Expectations are high, with sales and profit forecasts rising through the quarter and shares rallying into the spring. It’s likely to be a blockbuster earnings season for many companies’ fundamentals, but their stock-price reactions may be more of a letdown. Investors should look to margins, spending plans, and management commentary to get the full picture.<blockquote>随着美国几家大型银行公布2021年前三个月的业绩，第一季度财报季将于本周拉开帷幕。人们的期望很高，整个季度的销售额和利润预测都在上升，股价也在春季反弹。对于许多公司的基本面来说，这可能是一个重磅财报季，但它们的股价反应可能更令人失望。投资者应该关注利润率、支出计划和管理层评论以了解全貌。</blockquote>Wall Street analysts’ bottom-up forecast is for first-quarter S&amp;P 500 earnings per share to jump by 21% year over year on a 6.4% rise in revenue, per data from Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist. The biggest relative gains are naturally seen coming from the more cyclical areas of the market: the S&amp;P 500 consumer discretionary sector is expected to report earnings per share growth of 82%, followed by 77% for financials and 45% for materials.<blockquote>根据瑞士信贷首席美国股票策略师Jonathan Golub的数据，华尔街分析师自下而上的预测是，标普500第一季度每股收益将同比增长21%，营收增长6.4%。最大的相对收益自然来自市场周期性较强的领域：标普500非必需消费品行业预计每股收益将增长82%，其次是金融股77%和材料股45%。</blockquote>That’s thanks to an improving economy, higher commodity prices, and an easy comparison to the year-ago period, which included several weeks of harsh lockdowns across the globe. The consensus earnings forecast is just 2% above 2019’s first quarter, before the Covid-19 pandemic. It follows 1% year-over-year profit growth in the fourth quarter of 2020. And the second quarter is expected to be even more explosive: a 51% surge in S&amp;P 500 earnings per share is the consensus estimate.<blockquote>这要归功于经济改善、大宗商品价格上涨以及与去年同期（其中包括全球范围内数周的严厉封锁）的轻松比较。市场普遍的盈利预测仅比Covid-19大流行之前的2019年第一季度高出2%。此前，2020年第四季度利润同比增长1%。预计第二季度将更具爆炸性：市场普遍预计标普500每股收益将飙升51%。</blockquote>The complicating factor for investors coming into this earnings season is that a strong rebound in earnings is far from a secret. Stocks have rallied in recent months, to record highs after record highs, as the market has focused on the accelerating vaccine rollout and unfolding economic recovery.<blockquote>对于进入本财报季的投资者来说，一个复杂的因素是，盈利的强劲反弹远非秘密。近几个月来，随着市场关注疫苗加速推出和经济复苏的展开，股市不断上涨，屡创新高。</blockquote>The first quarter will be time for a growing number of companies to live up to the hype. Airlines, hotels, and the like will still likely get a pass given their particularly pandemic-sensitive businesses, and a rosy outlook might suffice there. But investors will be holding a broader range of companies to account than they have since the start of the pandemic. Rapid year-over-year growth is priced into the market.<blockquote>第一季度将是越来越多的公司不负众望的时候。鉴于航空公司、酒店等对流行病特别敏感的业务，它们仍有可能获得通行证，乐观的前景可能就足够了。但与大流行开始以来相比，投资者将对更广泛的公司承担责任。同比快速增长已被市场消化。</blockquote>That’s a recipe for overall lukewarm—at best—reactions to what would normally be seen as very strong earnings. Take last earnings season, when companies that beat Wall Street numbers on both revenues and earnings per share actually saw their stock prices lag behind the S&amp;P 500 by 0.1 percentage point the next day, according to Savita Subramanian, BofA Securities’ chief U.S. equity and quantitative strategist. That was the worst relative performance, or alpha, for double beats on record.<blockquote>对于通常被视为非常强劲的盈利，总体反应充其量是不冷不热的。美国银行证券(BofA Securities)首席美国股票和量化策略师萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)表示，以上个财报季为例，收入和每股收益均超过华尔街的公司第二天股价实际上落后标普500 0.1个百分点。这是double beats有记录以来最差的相对表现，或称alpha。</blockquote>This earnings season might not be all that different on that front, Subramanian argues. “Investors were unenthused by a big beat last quarter,” she wrote on Monday. “The only time in history (since 2000) that we saw negative alpha was in 2Q00, right at the peak of the Tech Bubble. Limited rewards indicate good news being priced in, and the rally since the last earnings season plus building euphoric sentiment lead us to suspect that a significant earnings beat may not translate to big market gains.”<blockquote>萨勃拉曼尼亚认为，这个财报季在这方面可能不会有太大不同。“投资者对上个季度的大幅上涨并不感兴趣，”她周一写道。“历史上（自2000年以来）我们唯一一次看到负阿尔法是在2000年第二季度，当时正值科技泡沫的高峰期。有限的回报表明好消息已被定价，自上一财报季以来的反弹加上日益增强的乐观情绪导致我们怀疑盈利大幅增长可能不会转化为市场大幅上涨。”</blockquote>For reopening-sensitive companies like restaurants, retailers, and other in-person dependent businesses, the focus will likely be on management commentary about how consumer behavior evolved over the quarter as the winter spike in Covid-19 cases eased, vaccinations accelerated, and government restrictions eased in much of the country. That will be seen as a preview of what’s to come later in 2021.<blockquote>对于餐馆、零售商和其他依赖面对面的企业等对重新开业敏感的公司来说，重点可能是管理层对随着Covid-19病例冬季高峰缓解、疫苗接种加速以及政府限制在该国大部分地区放松的情况下消费者行为在本季度如何演变的评论。这将被视为2021年晚些时候发生的事情的预演。</blockquote>Investors will also be listening intently to what management teams have to say about their supply chains and input costs. Beyond impacting profit margins, rising commodity prices and growing production constraints could keep companies from fully taking advantage of pent-up demand for their products. Warnings on that front could overshadow strong first-quarter results and lead to reduced earnings estimates for the remainder of 2021. Margins are expected to tighten for industrials and consumer staples firms, by 16% and 2%, respectively.<blockquote>投资者还将认真倾听管理团队对其供应链和投入成本的看法。除了影响利润率之外，大宗商品价格上涨和生产限制加剧可能会使企业无法充分利用被压抑的产品需求。这方面的警告可能会掩盖强劲的第一季度业绩，并导致2021年剩余时间的盈利预期下调。工业和消费必需品公司的利润率预计将分别收紧16%和2%。</blockquote>More quantifiably, investors will also be interested in what managements plan to do with their normalizing or growing cash flows as the pandemic recedes. “The sharp acceleration in earnings and [free cash flow] will increase the focus on how corporates decide to use their cash,” wrote UBS ’ chief U.S. equity strategist Keith Parker on Monday. “We see upside to capex and IT spend. We believe there is room to ramp up net buybacks to &gt;$600bn (+50%) this year.”<blockquote>更可以量化的是，随着疫情的消退，投资者还将对管理层计划如何处理正常化或增长的现金流感兴趣。瑞银首席美国股票策略师基思·帕克周一写道：“盈利和[自由现金流]的急剧加速将增加人们对企业如何决定使用现金的关注。”“我们看到资本支出和IT支出的上升空间。我们相信今年净回购有空间增加到6000亿美元以上（+50%）。”</blockquote>Finally, formal quarterly or full-year 2021 guidance may be the make-or-break variable for companies that didn’t surprise on earnings and sales in one direction or the other. Uncertainty regarding Covid-19 and economic outlook remain, but companies have now had a full year of operating in a pandemic, and most should be able to extrapolate the trends they’ve seen so far in 2021.<blockquote>最后，对于那些在一个方向或另一个方向的盈利和销售额上没有感到意外的公司来说，正式的2021年季度或全年指引可能是成败的变量。有关Covid-19和经济前景的不确定性仍然存在，但公司现在已经在大流行中运营了一整年，大多数公司应该能够推断出2021年迄今为止看到的趋势。</blockquote>Companies reporting in the coming days include Goldman Sachs Group (ticker: GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC) on Wednesday, followed by Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Delta Air Lines (DAL), PepsiCo (PEP), and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) on Thursday. Kansas City Southern (KSU) and Morgan Stanley (MS) report on Friday.<blockquote>未来几天将发布财报的公司包括周三的高盛集团（股票代码：GS）、摩根大通（JPM）和富国银行（WFC），其次是美国银行（BAC）、花旗集团（C）、达美航空（DAL）周四）、百事可乐（PEP）和联合健康集团（UNH）。堪萨斯城南方银行（KSU）和摩根士丹利（MS）周五发布报告。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Expectations Are High for This Earnings Season. Here’s What to Look For.<blockquote>人们对本财报季的期望很高。以下是要寻找的内容。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nExpectations Are High for This Earnings Season. Here’s What to Look For.<blockquote>人们对本财报季的期望很高。以下是要寻找的内容。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-04-13 18:44\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nFirst-quarter earnings season kicks off this week as several large U.S. banks report their results for the first three months of 2021. Expectations are high, with sales and profit forecasts rising through the quarter and shares rallying into the spring. It’s likely to be a blockbuster earnings season for many companies’ fundamentals, but their stock-price reactions may be more of a letdown. Investors should look to margins, spending plans, and management commentary to get the full picture.<blockquote>随着美国几家大型银行公布2021年前三个月的业绩，第一季度财报季将于本周拉开帷幕。人们的期望很高，整个季度的销售额和利润预测都在上升，股价也在春季反弹。对于许多公司的基本面来说，这可能是一个重磅财报季，但它们的股价反应可能更令人失望。投资者应该关注利润率、支出计划和管理层评论以了解全貌。</blockquote>Wall Street analysts’ bottom-up forecast is for first-quarter S&amp;P 500 earnings per share to jump by 21% year over year on a 6.4% rise in revenue, per data from Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist. The biggest relative gains are naturally seen coming from the more cyclical areas of the market: the S&amp;P 500 consumer discretionary sector is expected to report earnings per share growth of 82%, followed by 77% for financials and 45% for materials.<blockquote>根据瑞士信贷首席美国股票策略师Jonathan Golub的数据，华尔街分析师自下而上的预测是，标普500第一季度每股收益将同比增长21%，营收增长6.4%。最大的相对收益自然来自市场周期性较强的领域：标普500非必需消费品行业预计每股收益将增长82%，其次是金融股77%和材料股45%。</blockquote>That’s thanks to an improving economy, higher commodity prices, and an easy comparison to the year-ago period, which included several weeks of harsh lockdowns across the globe. The consensus earnings forecast is just 2% above 2019’s first quarter, before the Covid-19 pandemic. It follows 1% year-over-year profit growth in the fourth quarter of 2020. And the second quarter is expected to be even more explosive: a 51% surge in S&amp;P 500 earnings per share is the consensus estimate.<blockquote>这要归功于经济改善、大宗商品价格上涨以及与去年同期（其中包括全球范围内数周的严厉封锁）的轻松比较。市场普遍的盈利预测仅比Covid-19大流行之前的2019年第一季度高出2%。此前，2020年第四季度利润同比增长1%。预计第二季度将更具爆炸性：市场普遍预计标普500每股收益将飙升51%。</blockquote>The complicating factor for investors coming into this earnings season is that a strong rebound in earnings is far from a secret. Stocks have rallied in recent months, to record highs after record highs, as the market has focused on the accelerating vaccine rollout and unfolding economic recovery.<blockquote>对于进入本财报季的投资者来说，一个复杂的因素是，盈利的强劲反弹远非秘密。近几个月来，随着市场关注疫苗加速推出和经济复苏的展开，股市不断上涨，屡创新高。</blockquote>The first quarter will be time for a growing number of companies to live up to the hype. Airlines, hotels, and the like will still likely get a pass given their particularly pandemic-sensitive businesses, and a rosy outlook might suffice there. But investors will be holding a broader range of companies to account than they have since the start of the pandemic. Rapid year-over-year growth is priced into the market.<blockquote>第一季度将是越来越多的公司不负众望的时候。鉴于航空公司、酒店等对流行病特别敏感的业务，它们仍有可能获得通行证，乐观的前景可能就足够了。但与大流行开始以来相比，投资者将对更广泛的公司承担责任。同比快速增长已被市场消化。</blockquote>That’s a recipe for overall lukewarm—at best—reactions to what would normally be seen as very strong earnings. Take last earnings season, when companies that beat Wall Street numbers on both revenues and earnings per share actually saw their stock prices lag behind the S&amp;P 500 by 0.1 percentage point the next day, according to Savita Subramanian, BofA Securities’ chief U.S. equity and quantitative strategist. That was the worst relative performance, or alpha, for double beats on record.<blockquote>对于通常被视为非常强劲的盈利，总体反应充其量是不冷不热的。美国银行证券(BofA Securities)首席美国股票和量化策略师萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)表示，以上个财报季为例，收入和每股收益均超过华尔街的公司第二天股价实际上落后标普500 0.1个百分点。这是double beats有记录以来最差的相对表现，或称alpha。</blockquote>This earnings season might not be all that different on that front, Subramanian argues. “Investors were unenthused by a big beat last quarter,” she wrote on Monday. “The only time in history (since 2000) that we saw negative alpha was in 2Q00, right at the peak of the Tech Bubble. Limited rewards indicate good news being priced in, and the rally since the last earnings season plus building euphoric sentiment lead us to suspect that a significant earnings beat may not translate to big market gains.”<blockquote>萨勃拉曼尼亚认为，这个财报季在这方面可能不会有太大不同。“投资者对上个季度的大幅上涨并不感兴趣，”她周一写道。“历史上（自2000年以来）我们唯一一次看到负阿尔法是在2000年第二季度，当时正值科技泡沫的高峰期。有限的回报表明好消息已被定价，自上一财报季以来的反弹加上日益增强的乐观情绪导致我们怀疑盈利大幅增长可能不会转化为市场大幅上涨。”</blockquote>For reopening-sensitive companies like restaurants, retailers, and other in-person dependent businesses, the focus will likely be on management commentary about how consumer behavior evolved over the quarter as the winter spike in Covid-19 cases eased, vaccinations accelerated, and government restrictions eased in much of the country. That will be seen as a preview of what’s to come later in 2021.<blockquote>对于餐馆、零售商和其他依赖面对面的企业等对重新开业敏感的公司来说，重点可能是管理层对随着Covid-19病例冬季高峰缓解、疫苗接种加速以及政府限制在该国大部分地区放松的情况下消费者行为在本季度如何演变的评论。这将被视为2021年晚些时候发生的事情的预演。</blockquote>Investors will also be listening intently to what management teams have to say about their supply chains and input costs. Beyond impacting profit margins, rising commodity prices and growing production constraints could keep companies from fully taking advantage of pent-up demand for their products. Warnings on that front could overshadow strong first-quarter results and lead to reduced earnings estimates for the remainder of 2021. Margins are expected to tighten for industrials and consumer staples firms, by 16% and 2%, respectively.<blockquote>投资者还将认真倾听管理团队对其供应链和投入成本的看法。除了影响利润率之外，大宗商品价格上涨和生产限制加剧可能会使企业无法充分利用被压抑的产品需求。这方面的警告可能会掩盖强劲的第一季度业绩，并导致2021年剩余时间的盈利预期下调。工业和消费必需品公司的利润率预计将分别收紧16%和2%。</blockquote>More quantifiably, investors will also be interested in what managements plan to do with their normalizing or growing cash flows as the pandemic recedes. “The sharp acceleration in earnings and [free cash flow] will increase the focus on how corporates decide to use their cash,” wrote UBS ’ chief U.S. equity strategist Keith Parker on Monday. “We see upside to capex and IT spend. We believe there is room to ramp up net buybacks to &gt;$600bn (+50%) this year.”<blockquote>更可以量化的是，随着疫情的消退，投资者还将对管理层计划如何处理正常化或增长的现金流感兴趣。瑞银首席美国股票策略师基思·帕克周一写道：“盈利和[自由现金流]的急剧加速将增加人们对企业如何决定使用现金的关注。”“我们看到资本支出和IT支出的上升空间。我们相信今年净回购有空间增加到6000亿美元以上（+50%）。”</blockquote>Finally, formal quarterly or full-year 2021 guidance may be the make-or-break variable for companies that didn’t surprise on earnings and sales in one direction or the other. Uncertainty regarding Covid-19 and economic outlook remain, but companies have now had a full year of operating in a pandemic, and most should be able to extrapolate the trends they’ve seen so far in 2021.<blockquote>最后，对于那些在一个方向或另一个方向的盈利和销售额上没有感到意外的公司来说，正式的2021年季度或全年指引可能是成败的变量。有关Covid-19和经济前景的不确定性仍然存在，但公司现在已经在大流行中运营了一整年，大多数公司应该能够推断出2021年迄今为止看到的趋势。</blockquote>Companies reporting in the coming days include Goldman Sachs Group (ticker: GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC) on Wednesday, followed by Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Delta Air Lines (DAL), PepsiCo (PEP), and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) on Thursday. Kansas City Southern (KSU) and Morgan Stanley (MS) report on Friday.<blockquote>未来几天将发布财报的公司包括周三的高盛集团（股票代码：GS）、摩根大通（JPM）和富国银行（WFC），其次是美国银行（BAC）、花旗集团（C）、达美航空（DAL）周四）、百事可乐（PEP）和联合健康集团（UNH）。堪萨斯城南方银行（KSU）和摩根士丹利（MS）周五发布报告。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/expectations-are-high-for-this-earnings-season-heres-what-to-look-for-51618266227?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/expectations-are-high-for-this-earnings-season-heres-what-to-look-for-51618266227?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131702206","content_text":"First-quarter earnings season kicks off this week as several large U.S. banks report their results for the first three months of 2021. Expectations are high, with sales and profit forecasts rising through the quarter and shares rallying into the spring. It’s likely to be a blockbuster earnings season for many companies’ fundamentals, but their stock-price reactions may be more of a letdown. Investors should look to margins, spending plans, and management commentary to get the full picture.Wall Street analysts’ bottom-up forecast is for first-quarter S&P 500 earnings per share to jump by 21% year over year on a 6.4% rise in revenue, per data from Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist. The biggest relative gains are naturally seen coming from the more cyclical areas of the market: the S&P 500 consumer discretionary sector is expected to report earnings per share growth of 82%, followed by 77% for financials and 45% for materials.That’s thanks to an improving economy, higher commodity prices, and an easy comparison to the year-ago period, which included several weeks of harsh lockdowns across the globe. The consensus earnings forecast is just 2% above 2019’s first quarter, before the Covid-19 pandemic. It follows 1% year-over-year profit growth in the fourth quarter of 2020. And the second quarter is expected to be even more explosive: a 51% surge in S&P 500 earnings per share is the consensus estimate.The complicating factor for investors coming into this earnings season is that a strong rebound in earnings is far from a secret. Stocks have rallied in recent months, to record highs after record highs, as the market has focused on the accelerating vaccine rollout and unfolding economic recovery.The first quarter will be time for a growing number of companies to live up to the hype. Airlines, hotels, and the like will still likely get a pass given their particularly pandemic-sensitive businesses, and a rosy outlook might suffice there. But investors will be holding a broader range of companies to account than they have since the start of the pandemic. Rapid year-over-year growth is priced into the market.That’s a recipe for overall lukewarm—at best—reactions to what would normally be seen as very strong earnings. Take last earnings season, when companies that beat Wall Street numbers on both revenues and earnings per share actually saw their stock prices lag behind the S&P 500 by 0.1 percentage point the next day, according to Savita Subramanian, BofA Securities’ chief U.S. equity and quantitative strategist. That was the worst relative performance, or alpha, for double beats on record.This earnings season might not be all that different on that front, Subramanian argues. “Investors were unenthused by a big beat last quarter,” she wrote on Monday. “The only time in history (since 2000) that we saw negative alpha was in 2Q00, right at the peak of the Tech Bubble. Limited rewards indicate good news being priced in, and the rally since the last earnings season plus building euphoric sentiment lead us to suspect that a significant earnings beat may not translate to big market gains.”For reopening-sensitive companies like restaurants, retailers, and other in-person dependent businesses, the focus will likely be on management commentary about how consumer behavior evolved over the quarter as the winter spike in Covid-19 cases eased, vaccinations accelerated, and government restrictions eased in much of the country. That will be seen as a preview of what’s to come later in 2021.Investors will also be listening intently to what management teams have to say about their supply chains and input costs. Beyond impacting profit margins, rising commodity prices and growing production constraints could keep companies from fully taking advantage of pent-up demand for their products. Warnings on that front could overshadow strong first-quarter results and lead to reduced earnings estimates for the remainder of 2021. Margins are expected to tighten for industrials and consumer staples firms, by 16% and 2%, respectively.More quantifiably, investors will also be interested in what managements plan to do with their normalizing or growing cash flows as the pandemic recedes. “The sharp acceleration in earnings and [free cash flow] will increase the focus on how corporates decide to use their cash,” wrote UBS ’ chief U.S. equity strategist Keith Parker on Monday. “We see upside to capex and IT spend. We believe there is room to ramp up net buybacks to >$600bn (+50%) this year.”Finally, formal quarterly or full-year 2021 guidance may be the make-or-break variable for companies that didn’t surprise on earnings and sales in one direction or the other. Uncertainty regarding Covid-19 and economic outlook remain, but companies have now had a full year of operating in a pandemic, and most should be able to extrapolate the trends they’ve seen so far in 2021.Companies reporting in the coming days include Goldman Sachs Group (ticker: GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC) on Wednesday, followed by Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Delta Air Lines (DAL), PepsiCo (PEP), and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) on Thursday. Kansas City Southern (KSU) and Morgan Stanley (MS) report on Friday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":345648022,"gmtCreate":1618313078966,"gmtModify":1634293792875,"author":{"id":"3574782248817587","authorId":"3574782248817587","name":"FierySpade","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb8785e459fcf0c0acff4291eed89a3b","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574782248817587","authorIdStr":"3574782248817587"},"htmlText":"Expectation ? More like depression 🤣","listText":"Expectation ? More like depression 🤣","text":"Expectation ? More like depression 🤣","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345648022","repostId":1131702206,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131702206","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618310678,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131702206?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-13 18:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Expectations Are High for This Earnings Season. Here’s What to Look For.<blockquote>人们对本财报季的期望很高。以下是要寻找的内容。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131702206","media":"Barron's","summary":"First-quarter earnings season kicks off this week as several large U.S. banks report their results f","content":"First-quarter earnings season kicks off this week as several large U.S. banks report their results for the first three months of 2021. Expectations are high, with sales and profit forecasts rising through the quarter and shares rallying into the spring. It’s likely to be a blockbuster earnings season for many companies’ fundamentals, but their stock-price reactions may be more of a letdown. Investors should look to margins, spending plans, and management commentary to get the full picture.<blockquote>随着美国几家大型银行公布2021年前三个月的业绩，第一季度财报季将于本周拉开帷幕。人们的期望很高，整个季度的销售额和利润预测都在上升，股价也在春季反弹。对于许多公司的基本面来说，这可能是一个重磅财报季，但它们的股价反应可能更令人失望。投资者应该关注利润率、支出计划和管理层评论以了解全貌。</blockquote>Wall Street analysts’ bottom-up forecast is for first-quarter S&amp;P 500 earnings per share to jump by 21% year over year on a 6.4% rise in revenue, per data from Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist. The biggest relative gains are naturally seen coming from the more cyclical areas of the market: the S&amp;P 500 consumer discretionary sector is expected to report earnings per share growth of 82%, followed by 77% for financials and 45% for materials.<blockquote>根据瑞士信贷首席美国股票策略师Jonathan Golub的数据，华尔街分析师自下而上的预测是，标普500第一季度每股收益将同比增长21%，营收增长6.4%。最大的相对收益自然来自市场周期性较强的领域：标普500非必需消费品行业预计每股收益将增长82%，其次是金融股77%和材料股45%。</blockquote>That’s thanks to an improving economy, higher commodity prices, and an easy comparison to the year-ago period, which included several weeks of harsh lockdowns across the globe. The consensus earnings forecast is just 2% above 2019’s first quarter, before the Covid-19 pandemic. It follows 1% year-over-year profit growth in the fourth quarter of 2020. And the second quarter is expected to be even more explosive: a 51% surge in S&amp;P 500 earnings per share is the consensus estimate.<blockquote>这要归功于经济改善、大宗商品价格上涨以及与去年同期（其中包括全球范围内数周的严厉封锁）的轻松比较。市场普遍的盈利预测仅比Covid-19大流行之前的2019年第一季度高出2%。此前，2020年第四季度利润同比增长1%。预计第二季度将更具爆炸性：市场普遍预计标普500每股收益将飙升51%。</blockquote>The complicating factor for investors coming into this earnings season is that a strong rebound in earnings is far from a secret. Stocks have rallied in recent months, to record highs after record highs, as the market has focused on the accelerating vaccine rollout and unfolding economic recovery.<blockquote>对于进入本财报季的投资者来说，一个复杂的因素是，盈利的强劲反弹远非秘密。近几个月来，随着市场关注疫苗加速推出和经济复苏的展开，股市不断上涨，屡创新高。</blockquote>The first quarter will be time for a growing number of companies to live up to the hype. Airlines, hotels, and the like will still likely get a pass given their particularly pandemic-sensitive businesses, and a rosy outlook might suffice there. But investors will be holding a broader range of companies to account than they have since the start of the pandemic. Rapid year-over-year growth is priced into the market.<blockquote>第一季度将是越来越多的公司不负众望的时候。鉴于航空公司、酒店等对流行病特别敏感的业务，它们仍有可能获得通行证，乐观的前景可能就足够了。但与大流行开始以来相比，投资者将对更广泛的公司承担责任。同比快速增长已被市场消化。</blockquote>That’s a recipe for overall lukewarm—at best—reactions to what would normally be seen as very strong earnings. Take last earnings season, when companies that beat Wall Street numbers on both revenues and earnings per share actually saw their stock prices lag behind the S&amp;P 500 by 0.1 percentage point the next day, according to Savita Subramanian, BofA Securities’ chief U.S. equity and quantitative strategist. That was the worst relative performance, or alpha, for double beats on record.<blockquote>对于通常被视为非常强劲的盈利，总体反应充其量是不冷不热的。美国银行证券(BofA Securities)首席美国股票和量化策略师萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)表示，以上个财报季为例，收入和每股收益均超过华尔街的公司第二天股价实际上落后标普500 0.1个百分点。这是double beats有记录以来最差的相对表现，或称alpha。</blockquote>This earnings season might not be all that different on that front, Subramanian argues. “Investors were unenthused by a big beat last quarter,” she wrote on Monday. “The only time in history (since 2000) that we saw negative alpha was in 2Q00, right at the peak of the Tech Bubble. Limited rewards indicate good news being priced in, and the rally since the last earnings season plus building euphoric sentiment lead us to suspect that a significant earnings beat may not translate to big market gains.”<blockquote>萨勃拉曼尼亚认为，这个财报季在这方面可能不会有太大不同。“投资者对上个季度的大幅上涨并不感兴趣，”她周一写道。“历史上（自2000年以来）我们唯一一次看到负阿尔法是在2000年第二季度，当时正值科技泡沫的高峰期。有限的回报表明好消息已被定价，自上一财报季以来的反弹加上日益增强的乐观情绪导致我们怀疑盈利大幅增长可能不会转化为市场大幅上涨。”</blockquote>For reopening-sensitive companies like restaurants, retailers, and other in-person dependent businesses, the focus will likely be on management commentary about how consumer behavior evolved over the quarter as the winter spike in Covid-19 cases eased, vaccinations accelerated, and government restrictions eased in much of the country. That will be seen as a preview of what’s to come later in 2021.<blockquote>对于餐馆、零售商和其他依赖面对面的企业等对重新开业敏感的公司来说，重点可能是管理层对随着Covid-19病例冬季高峰缓解、疫苗接种加速以及政府限制在该国大部分地区放松的情况下消费者行为在本季度如何演变的评论。这将被视为2021年晚些时候发生的事情的预演。</blockquote>Investors will also be listening intently to what management teams have to say about their supply chains and input costs. Beyond impacting profit margins, rising commodity prices and growing production constraints could keep companies from fully taking advantage of pent-up demand for their products. Warnings on that front could overshadow strong first-quarter results and lead to reduced earnings estimates for the remainder of 2021. Margins are expected to tighten for industrials and consumer staples firms, by 16% and 2%, respectively.<blockquote>投资者还将认真倾听管理团队对其供应链和投入成本的看法。除了影响利润率之外，大宗商品价格上涨和生产限制加剧可能会使企业无法充分利用被压抑的产品需求。这方面的警告可能会掩盖强劲的第一季度业绩，并导致2021年剩余时间的盈利预期下调。工业和消费必需品公司的利润率预计将分别收紧16%和2%。</blockquote>More quantifiably, investors will also be interested in what managements plan to do with their normalizing or growing cash flows as the pandemic recedes. “The sharp acceleration in earnings and [free cash flow] will increase the focus on how corporates decide to use their cash,” wrote UBS ’ chief U.S. equity strategist Keith Parker on Monday. “We see upside to capex and IT spend. We believe there is room to ramp up net buybacks to &gt;$600bn (+50%) this year.”<blockquote>更可以量化的是，随着疫情的消退，投资者还将对管理层计划如何处理正常化或增长的现金流感兴趣。瑞银首席美国股票策略师基思·帕克周一写道：“盈利和[自由现金流]的急剧加速将增加人们对企业如何决定使用现金的关注。”“我们看到资本支出和IT支出的上升空间。我们相信今年净回购有空间增加到6000亿美元以上（+50%）。”</blockquote>Finally, formal quarterly or full-year 2021 guidance may be the make-or-break variable for companies that didn’t surprise on earnings and sales in one direction or the other. Uncertainty regarding Covid-19 and economic outlook remain, but companies have now had a full year of operating in a pandemic, and most should be able to extrapolate the trends they’ve seen so far in 2021.<blockquote>最后，对于那些在一个方向或另一个方向的盈利和销售额上没有感到意外的公司来说，正式的2021年季度或全年指引可能是成败的变量。有关Covid-19和经济前景的不确定性仍然存在，但公司现在已经在大流行中运营了一整年，大多数公司应该能够推断出2021年迄今为止看到的趋势。</blockquote>Companies reporting in the coming days include Goldman Sachs Group (ticker: GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC) on Wednesday, followed by Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Delta Air Lines (DAL), PepsiCo (PEP), and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) on Thursday. Kansas City Southern (KSU) and Morgan Stanley (MS) report on Friday.<blockquote>未来几天将发布财报的公司包括周三的高盛集团（股票代码：GS）、摩根大通（JPM）和富国银行（WFC），其次是美国银行（BAC）、花旗集团（C）、达美航空（DAL）周四）、百事可乐（PEP）和联合健康集团（UNH）。堪萨斯城南方银行（KSU）和摩根士丹利（MS）周五发布报告。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Expectations Are High for This Earnings Season. Here’s What to Look For.<blockquote>人们对本财报季的期望很高。以下是要寻找的内容。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nExpectations Are High for This Earnings Season. Here’s What to Look For.<blockquote>人们对本财报季的期望很高。以下是要寻找的内容。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-04-13 18:44\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nFirst-quarter earnings season kicks off this week as several large U.S. banks report their results for the first three months of 2021. Expectations are high, with sales and profit forecasts rising through the quarter and shares rallying into the spring. It’s likely to be a blockbuster earnings season for many companies’ fundamentals, but their stock-price reactions may be more of a letdown. Investors should look to margins, spending plans, and management commentary to get the full picture.<blockquote>随着美国几家大型银行公布2021年前三个月的业绩，第一季度财报季将于本周拉开帷幕。人们的期望很高，整个季度的销售额和利润预测都在上升，股价也在春季反弹。对于许多公司的基本面来说，这可能是一个重磅财报季，但它们的股价反应可能更令人失望。投资者应该关注利润率、支出计划和管理层评论以了解全貌。</blockquote>Wall Street analysts’ bottom-up forecast is for first-quarter S&amp;P 500 earnings per share to jump by 21% year over year on a 6.4% rise in revenue, per data from Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist. The biggest relative gains are naturally seen coming from the more cyclical areas of the market: the S&amp;P 500 consumer discretionary sector is expected to report earnings per share growth of 82%, followed by 77% for financials and 45% for materials.<blockquote>根据瑞士信贷首席美国股票策略师Jonathan Golub的数据，华尔街分析师自下而上的预测是，标普500第一季度每股收益将同比增长21%，营收增长6.4%。最大的相对收益自然来自市场周期性较强的领域：标普500非必需消费品行业预计每股收益将增长82%，其次是金融股77%和材料股45%。</blockquote>That’s thanks to an improving economy, higher commodity prices, and an easy comparison to the year-ago period, which included several weeks of harsh lockdowns across the globe. The consensus earnings forecast is just 2% above 2019’s first quarter, before the Covid-19 pandemic. It follows 1% year-over-year profit growth in the fourth quarter of 2020. And the second quarter is expected to be even more explosive: a 51% surge in S&amp;P 500 earnings per share is the consensus estimate.<blockquote>这要归功于经济改善、大宗商品价格上涨以及与去年同期（其中包括全球范围内数周的严厉封锁）的轻松比较。市场普遍的盈利预测仅比Covid-19大流行之前的2019年第一季度高出2%。此前，2020年第四季度利润同比增长1%。预计第二季度将更具爆炸性：市场普遍预计标普500每股收益将飙升51%。</blockquote>The complicating factor for investors coming into this earnings season is that a strong rebound in earnings is far from a secret. Stocks have rallied in recent months, to record highs after record highs, as the market has focused on the accelerating vaccine rollout and unfolding economic recovery.<blockquote>对于进入本财报季的投资者来说，一个复杂的因素是，盈利的强劲反弹远非秘密。近几个月来，随着市场关注疫苗加速推出和经济复苏的展开，股市不断上涨，屡创新高。</blockquote>The first quarter will be time for a growing number of companies to live up to the hype. Airlines, hotels, and the like will still likely get a pass given their particularly pandemic-sensitive businesses, and a rosy outlook might suffice there. But investors will be holding a broader range of companies to account than they have since the start of the pandemic. Rapid year-over-year growth is priced into the market.<blockquote>第一季度将是越来越多的公司不负众望的时候。鉴于航空公司、酒店等对流行病特别敏感的业务，它们仍有可能获得通行证，乐观的前景可能就足够了。但与大流行开始以来相比，投资者将对更广泛的公司承担责任。同比快速增长已被市场消化。</blockquote>That’s a recipe for overall lukewarm—at best—reactions to what would normally be seen as very strong earnings. Take last earnings season, when companies that beat Wall Street numbers on both revenues and earnings per share actually saw their stock prices lag behind the S&amp;P 500 by 0.1 percentage point the next day, according to Savita Subramanian, BofA Securities’ chief U.S. equity and quantitative strategist. That was the worst relative performance, or alpha, for double beats on record.<blockquote>对于通常被视为非常强劲的盈利，总体反应充其量是不冷不热的。美国银行证券(BofA Securities)首席美国股票和量化策略师萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)表示，以上个财报季为例，收入和每股收益均超过华尔街的公司第二天股价实际上落后标普500 0.1个百分点。这是double beats有记录以来最差的相对表现，或称alpha。</blockquote>This earnings season might not be all that different on that front, Subramanian argues. “Investors were unenthused by a big beat last quarter,” she wrote on Monday. “The only time in history (since 2000) that we saw negative alpha was in 2Q00, right at the peak of the Tech Bubble. Limited rewards indicate good news being priced in, and the rally since the last earnings season plus building euphoric sentiment lead us to suspect that a significant earnings beat may not translate to big market gains.”<blockquote>萨勃拉曼尼亚认为，这个财报季在这方面可能不会有太大不同。“投资者对上个季度的大幅上涨并不感兴趣，”她周一写道。“历史上（自2000年以来）我们唯一一次看到负阿尔法是在2000年第二季度，当时正值科技泡沫的高峰期。有限的回报表明好消息已被定价，自上一财报季以来的反弹加上日益增强的乐观情绪导致我们怀疑盈利大幅增长可能不会转化为市场大幅上涨。”</blockquote>For reopening-sensitive companies like restaurants, retailers, and other in-person dependent businesses, the focus will likely be on management commentary about how consumer behavior evolved over the quarter as the winter spike in Covid-19 cases eased, vaccinations accelerated, and government restrictions eased in much of the country. That will be seen as a preview of what’s to come later in 2021.<blockquote>对于餐馆、零售商和其他依赖面对面的企业等对重新开业敏感的公司来说，重点可能是管理层对随着Covid-19病例冬季高峰缓解、疫苗接种加速以及政府限制在该国大部分地区放松的情况下消费者行为在本季度如何演变的评论。这将被视为2021年晚些时候发生的事情的预演。</blockquote>Investors will also be listening intently to what management teams have to say about their supply chains and input costs. Beyond impacting profit margins, rising commodity prices and growing production constraints could keep companies from fully taking advantage of pent-up demand for their products. Warnings on that front could overshadow strong first-quarter results and lead to reduced earnings estimates for the remainder of 2021. Margins are expected to tighten for industrials and consumer staples firms, by 16% and 2%, respectively.<blockquote>投资者还将认真倾听管理团队对其供应链和投入成本的看法。除了影响利润率之外，大宗商品价格上涨和生产限制加剧可能会使企业无法充分利用被压抑的产品需求。这方面的警告可能会掩盖强劲的第一季度业绩，并导致2021年剩余时间的盈利预期下调。工业和消费必需品公司的利润率预计将分别收紧16%和2%。</blockquote>More quantifiably, investors will also be interested in what managements plan to do with their normalizing or growing cash flows as the pandemic recedes. “The sharp acceleration in earnings and [free cash flow] will increase the focus on how corporates decide to use their cash,” wrote UBS ’ chief U.S. equity strategist Keith Parker on Monday. “We see upside to capex and IT spend. We believe there is room to ramp up net buybacks to &gt;$600bn (+50%) this year.”<blockquote>更可以量化的是，随着疫情的消退，投资者还将对管理层计划如何处理正常化或增长的现金流感兴趣。瑞银首席美国股票策略师基思·帕克周一写道：“盈利和[自由现金流]的急剧加速将增加人们对企业如何决定使用现金的关注。”“我们看到资本支出和IT支出的上升空间。我们相信今年净回购有空间增加到6000亿美元以上（+50%）。”</blockquote>Finally, formal quarterly or full-year 2021 guidance may be the make-or-break variable for companies that didn’t surprise on earnings and sales in one direction or the other. Uncertainty regarding Covid-19 and economic outlook remain, but companies have now had a full year of operating in a pandemic, and most should be able to extrapolate the trends they’ve seen so far in 2021.<blockquote>最后，对于那些在一个方向或另一个方向的盈利和销售额上没有感到意外的公司来说，正式的2021年季度或全年指引可能是成败的变量。有关Covid-19和经济前景的不确定性仍然存在，但公司现在已经在大流行中运营了一整年，大多数公司应该能够推断出2021年迄今为止看到的趋势。</blockquote>Companies reporting in the coming days include Goldman Sachs Group (ticker: GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC) on Wednesday, followed by Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Delta Air Lines (DAL), PepsiCo (PEP), and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) on Thursday. Kansas City Southern (KSU) and Morgan Stanley (MS) report on Friday.<blockquote>未来几天将发布财报的公司包括周三的高盛集团（股票代码：GS）、摩根大通（JPM）和富国银行（WFC），其次是美国银行（BAC）、花旗集团（C）、达美航空（DAL）周四）、百事可乐（PEP）和联合健康集团（UNH）。堪萨斯城南方银行（KSU）和摩根士丹利（MS）周五发布报告。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/expectations-are-high-for-this-earnings-season-heres-what-to-look-for-51618266227?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/expectations-are-high-for-this-earnings-season-heres-what-to-look-for-51618266227?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131702206","content_text":"First-quarter earnings season kicks off this week as several large U.S. banks report their results for the first three months of 2021. Expectations are high, with sales and profit forecasts rising through the quarter and shares rallying into the spring. It’s likely to be a blockbuster earnings season for many companies’ fundamentals, but their stock-price reactions may be more of a letdown. Investors should look to margins, spending plans, and management commentary to get the full picture.Wall Street analysts’ bottom-up forecast is for first-quarter S&P 500 earnings per share to jump by 21% year over year on a 6.4% rise in revenue, per data from Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist. The biggest relative gains are naturally seen coming from the more cyclical areas of the market: the S&P 500 consumer discretionary sector is expected to report earnings per share growth of 82%, followed by 77% for financials and 45% for materials.That’s thanks to an improving economy, higher commodity prices, and an easy comparison to the year-ago period, which included several weeks of harsh lockdowns across the globe. The consensus earnings forecast is just 2% above 2019’s first quarter, before the Covid-19 pandemic. It follows 1% year-over-year profit growth in the fourth quarter of 2020. And the second quarter is expected to be even more explosive: a 51% surge in S&P 500 earnings per share is the consensus estimate.The complicating factor for investors coming into this earnings season is that a strong rebound in earnings is far from a secret. Stocks have rallied in recent months, to record highs after record highs, as the market has focused on the accelerating vaccine rollout and unfolding economic recovery.The first quarter will be time for a growing number of companies to live up to the hype. Airlines, hotels, and the like will still likely get a pass given their particularly pandemic-sensitive businesses, and a rosy outlook might suffice there. But investors will be holding a broader range of companies to account than they have since the start of the pandemic. Rapid year-over-year growth is priced into the market.That’s a recipe for overall lukewarm—at best—reactions to what would normally be seen as very strong earnings. Take last earnings season, when companies that beat Wall Street numbers on both revenues and earnings per share actually saw their stock prices lag behind the S&P 500 by 0.1 percentage point the next day, according to Savita Subramanian, BofA Securities’ chief U.S. equity and quantitative strategist. That was the worst relative performance, or alpha, for double beats on record.This earnings season might not be all that different on that front, Subramanian argues. “Investors were unenthused by a big beat last quarter,” she wrote on Monday. “The only time in history (since 2000) that we saw negative alpha was in 2Q00, right at the peak of the Tech Bubble. Limited rewards indicate good news being priced in, and the rally since the last earnings season plus building euphoric sentiment lead us to suspect that a significant earnings beat may not translate to big market gains.”For reopening-sensitive companies like restaurants, retailers, and other in-person dependent businesses, the focus will likely be on management commentary about how consumer behavior evolved over the quarter as the winter spike in Covid-19 cases eased, vaccinations accelerated, and government restrictions eased in much of the country. That will be seen as a preview of what’s to come later in 2021.Investors will also be listening intently to what management teams have to say about their supply chains and input costs. Beyond impacting profit margins, rising commodity prices and growing production constraints could keep companies from fully taking advantage of pent-up demand for their products. Warnings on that front could overshadow strong first-quarter results and lead to reduced earnings estimates for the remainder of 2021. Margins are expected to tighten for industrials and consumer staples firms, by 16% and 2%, respectively.More quantifiably, investors will also be interested in what managements plan to do with their normalizing or growing cash flows as the pandemic recedes. “The sharp acceleration in earnings and [free cash flow] will increase the focus on how corporates decide to use their cash,” wrote UBS ’ chief U.S. equity strategist Keith Parker on Monday. “We see upside to capex and IT spend. We believe there is room to ramp up net buybacks to >$600bn (+50%) this year.”Finally, formal quarterly or full-year 2021 guidance may be the make-or-break variable for companies that didn’t surprise on earnings and sales in one direction or the other. Uncertainty regarding Covid-19 and economic outlook remain, but companies have now had a full year of operating in a pandemic, and most should be able to extrapolate the trends they’ve seen so far in 2021.Companies reporting in the coming days include Goldman Sachs Group (ticker: GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC) on Wednesday, followed by Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Delta Air Lines (DAL), PepsiCo (PEP), and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) on Thursday. Kansas City Southern (KSU) and Morgan Stanley (MS) report on Friday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":345655804,"gmtCreate":1618312528608,"gmtModify":1634293796827,"author":{"id":"3572214398550610","authorId":"3572214398550610","name":"aliciatng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4b23ee891a1061c7907495a9c7da890","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572214398550610","authorIdStr":"3572214398550610"},"htmlText":"Comment and like","listText":"Comment and like","text":"Comment and like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345655804","repostId":1131702206,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131702206","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618310678,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131702206?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-13 18:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Expectations Are High for This Earnings Season. Here’s What to Look For.<blockquote>人们对本财报季的期望很高。以下是要寻找的内容。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131702206","media":"Barron's","summary":"First-quarter earnings season kicks off this week as several large U.S. banks report their results f","content":"First-quarter earnings season kicks off this week as several large U.S. banks report their results for the first three months of 2021. Expectations are high, with sales and profit forecasts rising through the quarter and shares rallying into the spring. It’s likely to be a blockbuster earnings season for many companies’ fundamentals, but their stock-price reactions may be more of a letdown. Investors should look to margins, spending plans, and management commentary to get the full picture.<blockquote>随着美国几家大型银行公布2021年前三个月的业绩，第一季度财报季将于本周拉开帷幕。人们的期望很高，整个季度的销售额和利润预测都在上升，股价也在春季反弹。对于许多公司的基本面来说，这可能是一个重磅财报季，但它们的股价反应可能更令人失望。投资者应该关注利润率、支出计划和管理层评论以了解全貌。</blockquote>Wall Street analysts’ bottom-up forecast is for first-quarter S&amp;P 500 earnings per share to jump by 21% year over year on a 6.4% rise in revenue, per data from Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist. The biggest relative gains are naturally seen coming from the more cyclical areas of the market: the S&amp;P 500 consumer discretionary sector is expected to report earnings per share growth of 82%, followed by 77% for financials and 45% for materials.<blockquote>根据瑞士信贷首席美国股票策略师Jonathan Golub的数据，华尔街分析师自下而上的预测是，标普500第一季度每股收益将同比增长21%，营收增长6.4%。最大的相对收益自然来自市场周期性较强的领域：标普500非必需消费品行业预计每股收益将增长82%，其次是金融股77%和材料股45%。</blockquote>That’s thanks to an improving economy, higher commodity prices, and an easy comparison to the year-ago period, which included several weeks of harsh lockdowns across the globe. The consensus earnings forecast is just 2% above 2019’s first quarter, before the Covid-19 pandemic. It follows 1% year-over-year profit growth in the fourth quarter of 2020. And the second quarter is expected to be even more explosive: a 51% surge in S&amp;P 500 earnings per share is the consensus estimate.<blockquote>这要归功于经济改善、大宗商品价格上涨以及与去年同期（其中包括全球范围内数周的严厉封锁）的轻松比较。市场普遍的盈利预测仅比Covid-19大流行之前的2019年第一季度高出2%。此前，2020年第四季度利润同比增长1%。预计第二季度将更具爆炸性：市场普遍预计标普500每股收益将飙升51%。</blockquote>The complicating factor for investors coming into this earnings season is that a strong rebound in earnings is far from a secret. Stocks have rallied in recent months, to record highs after record highs, as the market has focused on the accelerating vaccine rollout and unfolding economic recovery.<blockquote>对于进入本财报季的投资者来说，一个复杂的因素是，盈利的强劲反弹远非秘密。近几个月来，随着市场关注疫苗加速推出和经济复苏的展开，股市不断上涨，屡创新高。</blockquote>The first quarter will be time for a growing number of companies to live up to the hype. Airlines, hotels, and the like will still likely get a pass given their particularly pandemic-sensitive businesses, and a rosy outlook might suffice there. But investors will be holding a broader range of companies to account than they have since the start of the pandemic. Rapid year-over-year growth is priced into the market.<blockquote>第一季度将是越来越多的公司不负众望的时候。鉴于航空公司、酒店等对流行病特别敏感的业务，它们仍有可能获得通行证，乐观的前景可能就足够了。但与大流行开始以来相比，投资者将对更广泛的公司承担责任。同比快速增长已被市场消化。</blockquote>That’s a recipe for overall lukewarm—at best—reactions to what would normally be seen as very strong earnings. Take last earnings season, when companies that beat Wall Street numbers on both revenues and earnings per share actually saw their stock prices lag behind the S&amp;P 500 by 0.1 percentage point the next day, according to Savita Subramanian, BofA Securities’ chief U.S. equity and quantitative strategist. That was the worst relative performance, or alpha, for double beats on record.<blockquote>对于通常被视为非常强劲的盈利，总体反应充其量是不冷不热的。美国银行证券(BofA Securities)首席美国股票和量化策略师萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)表示，以上个财报季为例，收入和每股收益均超过华尔街的公司第二天股价实际上落后标普500 0.1个百分点。这是double beats有记录以来最差的相对表现，或称alpha。</blockquote>This earnings season might not be all that different on that front, Subramanian argues. “Investors were unenthused by a big beat last quarter,” she wrote on Monday. “The only time in history (since 2000) that we saw negative alpha was in 2Q00, right at the peak of the Tech Bubble. Limited rewards indicate good news being priced in, and the rally since the last earnings season plus building euphoric sentiment lead us to suspect that a significant earnings beat may not translate to big market gains.”<blockquote>萨勃拉曼尼亚认为，这个财报季在这方面可能不会有太大不同。“投资者对上个季度的大幅上涨并不感兴趣，”她周一写道。“历史上（自2000年以来）我们唯一一次看到负阿尔法是在2000年第二季度，当时正值科技泡沫的高峰期。有限的回报表明好消息已被定价，自上一财报季以来的反弹加上日益增强的乐观情绪导致我们怀疑盈利大幅增长可能不会转化为市场大幅上涨。”</blockquote>For reopening-sensitive companies like restaurants, retailers, and other in-person dependent businesses, the focus will likely be on management commentary about how consumer behavior evolved over the quarter as the winter spike in Covid-19 cases eased, vaccinations accelerated, and government restrictions eased in much of the country. That will be seen as a preview of what’s to come later in 2021.<blockquote>对于餐馆、零售商和其他依赖面对面的企业等对重新开业敏感的公司来说，重点可能是管理层对随着Covid-19病例冬季高峰缓解、疫苗接种加速以及政府限制在该国大部分地区放松的情况下消费者行为在本季度如何演变的评论。这将被视为2021年晚些时候发生的事情的预演。</blockquote>Investors will also be listening intently to what management teams have to say about their supply chains and input costs. Beyond impacting profit margins, rising commodity prices and growing production constraints could keep companies from fully taking advantage of pent-up demand for their products. Warnings on that front could overshadow strong first-quarter results and lead to reduced earnings estimates for the remainder of 2021. Margins are expected to tighten for industrials and consumer staples firms, by 16% and 2%, respectively.<blockquote>投资者还将认真倾听管理团队对其供应链和投入成本的看法。除了影响利润率之外，大宗商品价格上涨和生产限制加剧可能会使企业无法充分利用被压抑的产品需求。这方面的警告可能会掩盖强劲的第一季度业绩，并导致2021年剩余时间的盈利预期下调。工业和消费必需品公司的利润率预计将分别收紧16%和2%。</blockquote>More quantifiably, investors will also be interested in what managements plan to do with their normalizing or growing cash flows as the pandemic recedes. “The sharp acceleration in earnings and [free cash flow] will increase the focus on how corporates decide to use their cash,” wrote UBS ’ chief U.S. equity strategist Keith Parker on Monday. “We see upside to capex and IT spend. We believe there is room to ramp up net buybacks to &gt;$600bn (+50%) this year.”<blockquote>更可以量化的是，随着疫情的消退，投资者还将对管理层计划如何处理正常化或增长的现金流感兴趣。瑞银首席美国股票策略师基思·帕克周一写道：“盈利和[自由现金流]的急剧加速将增加人们对企业如何决定使用现金的关注。”“我们看到资本支出和IT支出的上升空间。我们相信今年净回购有空间增加到6000亿美元以上（+50%）。”</blockquote>Finally, formal quarterly or full-year 2021 guidance may be the make-or-break variable for companies that didn’t surprise on earnings and sales in one direction or the other. Uncertainty regarding Covid-19 and economic outlook remain, but companies have now had a full year of operating in a pandemic, and most should be able to extrapolate the trends they’ve seen so far in 2021.<blockquote>最后，对于那些在一个方向或另一个方向的盈利和销售额上没有感到意外的公司来说，正式的2021年季度或全年指引可能是成败的变量。有关Covid-19和经济前景的不确定性仍然存在，但公司现在已经在大流行中运营了一整年，大多数公司应该能够推断出2021年迄今为止看到的趋势。</blockquote>Companies reporting in the coming days include Goldman Sachs Group (ticker: GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC) on Wednesday, followed by Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Delta Air Lines (DAL), PepsiCo (PEP), and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) on Thursday. Kansas City Southern (KSU) and Morgan Stanley (MS) report on Friday.<blockquote>未来几天将发布财报的公司包括周三的高盛集团（股票代码：GS）、摩根大通（JPM）和富国银行（WFC），其次是美国银行（BAC）、花旗集团（C）、达美航空（DAL）周四）、百事可乐（PEP）和联合健康集团（UNH）。堪萨斯城南方银行（KSU）和摩根士丹利（MS）周五发布报告。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Expectations Are High for This Earnings Season. Here’s What to Look For.<blockquote>人们对本财报季的期望很高。以下是要寻找的内容。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nExpectations Are High for This Earnings Season. Here’s What to Look For.<blockquote>人们对本财报季的期望很高。以下是要寻找的内容。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-04-13 18:44\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nFirst-quarter earnings season kicks off this week as several large U.S. banks report their results for the first three months of 2021. Expectations are high, with sales and profit forecasts rising through the quarter and shares rallying into the spring. It’s likely to be a blockbuster earnings season for many companies’ fundamentals, but their stock-price reactions may be more of a letdown. Investors should look to margins, spending plans, and management commentary to get the full picture.<blockquote>随着美国几家大型银行公布2021年前三个月的业绩，第一季度财报季将于本周拉开帷幕。人们的期望很高，整个季度的销售额和利润预测都在上升，股价也在春季反弹。对于许多公司的基本面来说，这可能是一个重磅财报季，但它们的股价反应可能更令人失望。投资者应该关注利润率、支出计划和管理层评论以了解全貌。</blockquote>Wall Street analysts’ bottom-up forecast is for first-quarter S&amp;P 500 earnings per share to jump by 21% year over year on a 6.4% rise in revenue, per data from Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist. The biggest relative gains are naturally seen coming from the more cyclical areas of the market: the S&amp;P 500 consumer discretionary sector is expected to report earnings per share growth of 82%, followed by 77% for financials and 45% for materials.<blockquote>根据瑞士信贷首席美国股票策略师Jonathan Golub的数据，华尔街分析师自下而上的预测是，标普500第一季度每股收益将同比增长21%，营收增长6.4%。最大的相对收益自然来自市场周期性较强的领域：标普500非必需消费品行业预计每股收益将增长82%，其次是金融股77%和材料股45%。</blockquote>That’s thanks to an improving economy, higher commodity prices, and an easy comparison to the year-ago period, which included several weeks of harsh lockdowns across the globe. The consensus earnings forecast is just 2% above 2019’s first quarter, before the Covid-19 pandemic. It follows 1% year-over-year profit growth in the fourth quarter of 2020. And the second quarter is expected to be even more explosive: a 51% surge in S&amp;P 500 earnings per share is the consensus estimate.<blockquote>这要归功于经济改善、大宗商品价格上涨以及与去年同期（其中包括全球范围内数周的严厉封锁）的轻松比较。市场普遍的盈利预测仅比Covid-19大流行之前的2019年第一季度高出2%。此前，2020年第四季度利润同比增长1%。预计第二季度将更具爆炸性：市场普遍预计标普500每股收益将飙升51%。</blockquote>The complicating factor for investors coming into this earnings season is that a strong rebound in earnings is far from a secret. Stocks have rallied in recent months, to record highs after record highs, as the market has focused on the accelerating vaccine rollout and unfolding economic recovery.<blockquote>对于进入本财报季的投资者来说，一个复杂的因素是，盈利的强劲反弹远非秘密。近几个月来，随着市场关注疫苗加速推出和经济复苏的展开，股市不断上涨，屡创新高。</blockquote>The first quarter will be time for a growing number of companies to live up to the hype. Airlines, hotels, and the like will still likely get a pass given their particularly pandemic-sensitive businesses, and a rosy outlook might suffice there. But investors will be holding a broader range of companies to account than they have since the start of the pandemic. Rapid year-over-year growth is priced into the market.<blockquote>第一季度将是越来越多的公司不负众望的时候。鉴于航空公司、酒店等对流行病特别敏感的业务，它们仍有可能获得通行证，乐观的前景可能就足够了。但与大流行开始以来相比，投资者将对更广泛的公司承担责任。同比快速增长已被市场消化。</blockquote>That’s a recipe for overall lukewarm—at best—reactions to what would normally be seen as very strong earnings. Take last earnings season, when companies that beat Wall Street numbers on both revenues and earnings per share actually saw their stock prices lag behind the S&amp;P 500 by 0.1 percentage point the next day, according to Savita Subramanian, BofA Securities’ chief U.S. equity and quantitative strategist. That was the worst relative performance, or alpha, for double beats on record.<blockquote>对于通常被视为非常强劲的盈利，总体反应充其量是不冷不热的。美国银行证券(BofA Securities)首席美国股票和量化策略师萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)表示，以上个财报季为例，收入和每股收益均超过华尔街的公司第二天股价实际上落后标普500 0.1个百分点。这是double beats有记录以来最差的相对表现，或称alpha。</blockquote>This earnings season might not be all that different on that front, Subramanian argues. “Investors were unenthused by a big beat last quarter,” she wrote on Monday. “The only time in history (since 2000) that we saw negative alpha was in 2Q00, right at the peak of the Tech Bubble. Limited rewards indicate good news being priced in, and the rally since the last earnings season plus building euphoric sentiment lead us to suspect that a significant earnings beat may not translate to big market gains.”<blockquote>萨勃拉曼尼亚认为，这个财报季在这方面可能不会有太大不同。“投资者对上个季度的大幅上涨并不感兴趣，”她周一写道。“历史上（自2000年以来）我们唯一一次看到负阿尔法是在2000年第二季度，当时正值科技泡沫的高峰期。有限的回报表明好消息已被定价，自上一财报季以来的反弹加上日益增强的乐观情绪导致我们怀疑盈利大幅增长可能不会转化为市场大幅上涨。”</blockquote>For reopening-sensitive companies like restaurants, retailers, and other in-person dependent businesses, the focus will likely be on management commentary about how consumer behavior evolved over the quarter as the winter spike in Covid-19 cases eased, vaccinations accelerated, and government restrictions eased in much of the country. That will be seen as a preview of what’s to come later in 2021.<blockquote>对于餐馆、零售商和其他依赖面对面的企业等对重新开业敏感的公司来说，重点可能是管理层对随着Covid-19病例冬季高峰缓解、疫苗接种加速以及政府限制在该国大部分地区放松的情况下消费者行为在本季度如何演变的评论。这将被视为2021年晚些时候发生的事情的预演。</blockquote>Investors will also be listening intently to what management teams have to say about their supply chains and input costs. Beyond impacting profit margins, rising commodity prices and growing production constraints could keep companies from fully taking advantage of pent-up demand for their products. Warnings on that front could overshadow strong first-quarter results and lead to reduced earnings estimates for the remainder of 2021. Margins are expected to tighten for industrials and consumer staples firms, by 16% and 2%, respectively.<blockquote>投资者还将认真倾听管理团队对其供应链和投入成本的看法。除了影响利润率之外，大宗商品价格上涨和生产限制加剧可能会使企业无法充分利用被压抑的产品需求。这方面的警告可能会掩盖强劲的第一季度业绩，并导致2021年剩余时间的盈利预期下调。工业和消费必需品公司的利润率预计将分别收紧16%和2%。</blockquote>More quantifiably, investors will also be interested in what managements plan to do with their normalizing or growing cash flows as the pandemic recedes. “The sharp acceleration in earnings and [free cash flow] will increase the focus on how corporates decide to use their cash,” wrote UBS ’ chief U.S. equity strategist Keith Parker on Monday. “We see upside to capex and IT spend. We believe there is room to ramp up net buybacks to &gt;$600bn (+50%) this year.”<blockquote>更可以量化的是，随着疫情的消退，投资者还将对管理层计划如何处理正常化或增长的现金流感兴趣。瑞银首席美国股票策略师基思·帕克周一写道：“盈利和[自由现金流]的急剧加速将增加人们对企业如何决定使用现金的关注。”“我们看到资本支出和IT支出的上升空间。我们相信今年净回购有空间增加到6000亿美元以上（+50%）。”</blockquote>Finally, formal quarterly or full-year 2021 guidance may be the make-or-break variable for companies that didn’t surprise on earnings and sales in one direction or the other. Uncertainty regarding Covid-19 and economic outlook remain, but companies have now had a full year of operating in a pandemic, and most should be able to extrapolate the trends they’ve seen so far in 2021.<blockquote>最后，对于那些在一个方向或另一个方向的盈利和销售额上没有感到意外的公司来说，正式的2021年季度或全年指引可能是成败的变量。有关Covid-19和经济前景的不确定性仍然存在，但公司现在已经在大流行中运营了一整年，大多数公司应该能够推断出2021年迄今为止看到的趋势。</blockquote>Companies reporting in the coming days include Goldman Sachs Group (ticker: GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC) on Wednesday, followed by Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Delta Air Lines (DAL), PepsiCo (PEP), and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) on Thursday. Kansas City Southern (KSU) and Morgan Stanley (MS) report on Friday.<blockquote>未来几天将发布财报的公司包括周三的高盛集团（股票代码：GS）、摩根大通（JPM）和富国银行（WFC），其次是美国银行（BAC）、花旗集团（C）、达美航空（DAL）周四）、百事可乐（PEP）和联合健康集团（UNH）。堪萨斯城南方银行（KSU）和摩根士丹利（MS）周五发布报告。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/expectations-are-high-for-this-earnings-season-heres-what-to-look-for-51618266227?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/expectations-are-high-for-this-earnings-season-heres-what-to-look-for-51618266227?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131702206","content_text":"First-quarter earnings season kicks off this week as several large U.S. banks report their results for the first three months of 2021. Expectations are high, with sales and profit forecasts rising through the quarter and shares rallying into the spring. It’s likely to be a blockbuster earnings season for many companies’ fundamentals, but their stock-price reactions may be more of a letdown. Investors should look to margins, spending plans, and management commentary to get the full picture.Wall Street analysts’ bottom-up forecast is for first-quarter S&P 500 earnings per share to jump by 21% year over year on a 6.4% rise in revenue, per data from Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist. The biggest relative gains are naturally seen coming from the more cyclical areas of the market: the S&P 500 consumer discretionary sector is expected to report earnings per share growth of 82%, followed by 77% for financials and 45% for materials.That’s thanks to an improving economy, higher commodity prices, and an easy comparison to the year-ago period, which included several weeks of harsh lockdowns across the globe. The consensus earnings forecast is just 2% above 2019’s first quarter, before the Covid-19 pandemic. It follows 1% year-over-year profit growth in the fourth quarter of 2020. And the second quarter is expected to be even more explosive: a 51% surge in S&P 500 earnings per share is the consensus estimate.The complicating factor for investors coming into this earnings season is that a strong rebound in earnings is far from a secret. Stocks have rallied in recent months, to record highs after record highs, as the market has focused on the accelerating vaccine rollout and unfolding economic recovery.The first quarter will be time for a growing number of companies to live up to the hype. Airlines, hotels, and the like will still likely get a pass given their particularly pandemic-sensitive businesses, and a rosy outlook might suffice there. But investors will be holding a broader range of companies to account than they have since the start of the pandemic. Rapid year-over-year growth is priced into the market.That’s a recipe for overall lukewarm—at best—reactions to what would normally be seen as very strong earnings. Take last earnings season, when companies that beat Wall Street numbers on both revenues and earnings per share actually saw their stock prices lag behind the S&P 500 by 0.1 percentage point the next day, according to Savita Subramanian, BofA Securities’ chief U.S. equity and quantitative strategist. That was the worst relative performance, or alpha, for double beats on record.This earnings season might not be all that different on that front, Subramanian argues. “Investors were unenthused by a big beat last quarter,” she wrote on Monday. “The only time in history (since 2000) that we saw negative alpha was in 2Q00, right at the peak of the Tech Bubble. Limited rewards indicate good news being priced in, and the rally since the last earnings season plus building euphoric sentiment lead us to suspect that a significant earnings beat may not translate to big market gains.”For reopening-sensitive companies like restaurants, retailers, and other in-person dependent businesses, the focus will likely be on management commentary about how consumer behavior evolved over the quarter as the winter spike in Covid-19 cases eased, vaccinations accelerated, and government restrictions eased in much of the country. That will be seen as a preview of what’s to come later in 2021.Investors will also be listening intently to what management teams have to say about their supply chains and input costs. Beyond impacting profit margins, rising commodity prices and growing production constraints could keep companies from fully taking advantage of pent-up demand for their products. Warnings on that front could overshadow strong first-quarter results and lead to reduced earnings estimates for the remainder of 2021. Margins are expected to tighten for industrials and consumer staples firms, by 16% and 2%, respectively.More quantifiably, investors will also be interested in what managements plan to do with their normalizing or growing cash flows as the pandemic recedes. “The sharp acceleration in earnings and [free cash flow] will increase the focus on how corporates decide to use their cash,” wrote UBS ’ chief U.S. equity strategist Keith Parker on Monday. “We see upside to capex and IT spend. We believe there is room to ramp up net buybacks to >$600bn (+50%) this year.”Finally, formal quarterly or full-year 2021 guidance may be the make-or-break variable for companies that didn’t surprise on earnings and sales in one direction or the other. Uncertainty regarding Covid-19 and economic outlook remain, but companies have now had a full year of operating in a pandemic, and most should be able to extrapolate the trends they’ve seen so far in 2021.Companies reporting in the coming days include Goldman Sachs Group (ticker: GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC) on Wednesday, followed by Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Delta Air Lines (DAL), PepsiCo (PEP), and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) on Thursday. Kansas City Southern (KSU) and Morgan Stanley (MS) report on Friday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":345622264,"gmtCreate":1618311589658,"gmtModify":1634293803036,"author":{"id":"3577351762187878","authorId":"3577351762187878","name":"ChemGoh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577351762187878","authorIdStr":"3577351762187878"},"htmlText":"Looking","listText":"Looking","text":"Looking","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345622264","repostId":1131702206,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131702206","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618310678,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131702206?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-13 18:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Expectations Are High for This Earnings Season. Here’s What to Look For.<blockquote>人们对本财报季的期望很高。以下是要寻找的内容。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131702206","media":"Barron's","summary":"First-quarter earnings season kicks off this week as several large U.S. banks report their results f","content":"First-quarter earnings season kicks off this week as several large U.S. banks report their results for the first three months of 2021. Expectations are high, with sales and profit forecasts rising through the quarter and shares rallying into the spring. It’s likely to be a blockbuster earnings season for many companies’ fundamentals, but their stock-price reactions may be more of a letdown. Investors should look to margins, spending plans, and management commentary to get the full picture.<blockquote>随着美国几家大型银行公布2021年前三个月的业绩，第一季度财报季将于本周拉开帷幕。人们的期望很高，整个季度的销售额和利润预测都在上升，股价也在春季反弹。对于许多公司的基本面来说，这可能是一个重磅财报季，但它们的股价反应可能更令人失望。投资者应该关注利润率、支出计划和管理层评论以了解全貌。</blockquote>Wall Street analysts’ bottom-up forecast is for first-quarter S&amp;P 500 earnings per share to jump by 21% year over year on a 6.4% rise in revenue, per data from Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist. The biggest relative gains are naturally seen coming from the more cyclical areas of the market: the S&amp;P 500 consumer discretionary sector is expected to report earnings per share growth of 82%, followed by 77% for financials and 45% for materials.<blockquote>根据瑞士信贷首席美国股票策略师Jonathan Golub的数据，华尔街分析师自下而上的预测是，标普500第一季度每股收益将同比增长21%，营收增长6.4%。最大的相对收益自然来自市场周期性较强的领域：标普500非必需消费品行业预计每股收益将增长82%，其次是金融股77%和材料股45%。</blockquote>That’s thanks to an improving economy, higher commodity prices, and an easy comparison to the year-ago period, which included several weeks of harsh lockdowns across the globe. The consensus earnings forecast is just 2% above 2019’s first quarter, before the Covid-19 pandemic. It follows 1% year-over-year profit growth in the fourth quarter of 2020. And the second quarter is expected to be even more explosive: a 51% surge in S&amp;P 500 earnings per share is the consensus estimate.<blockquote>这要归功于经济改善、大宗商品价格上涨以及与去年同期（其中包括全球范围内数周的严厉封锁）的轻松比较。市场普遍的盈利预测仅比Covid-19大流行之前的2019年第一季度高出2%。此前，2020年第四季度利润同比增长1%。预计第二季度将更具爆炸性：市场普遍预计标普500每股收益将飙升51%。</blockquote>The complicating factor for investors coming into this earnings season is that a strong rebound in earnings is far from a secret. Stocks have rallied in recent months, to record highs after record highs, as the market has focused on the accelerating vaccine rollout and unfolding economic recovery.<blockquote>对于进入本财报季的投资者来说，一个复杂的因素是，盈利的强劲反弹远非秘密。近几个月来，随着市场关注疫苗加速推出和经济复苏的展开，股市不断上涨，屡创新高。</blockquote>The first quarter will be time for a growing number of companies to live up to the hype. Airlines, hotels, and the like will still likely get a pass given their particularly pandemic-sensitive businesses, and a rosy outlook might suffice there. But investors will be holding a broader range of companies to account than they have since the start of the pandemic. Rapid year-over-year growth is priced into the market.<blockquote>第一季度将是越来越多的公司不负众望的时候。鉴于航空公司、酒店等对流行病特别敏感的业务，它们仍有可能获得通行证，乐观的前景可能就足够了。但与大流行开始以来相比，投资者将对更广泛的公司承担责任。同比快速增长已被市场消化。</blockquote>That’s a recipe for overall lukewarm—at best—reactions to what would normally be seen as very strong earnings. Take last earnings season, when companies that beat Wall Street numbers on both revenues and earnings per share actually saw their stock prices lag behind the S&amp;P 500 by 0.1 percentage point the next day, according to Savita Subramanian, BofA Securities’ chief U.S. equity and quantitative strategist. That was the worst relative performance, or alpha, for double beats on record.<blockquote>对于通常被视为非常强劲的盈利，总体反应充其量是不冷不热的。美国银行证券(BofA Securities)首席美国股票和量化策略师萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)表示，以上个财报季为例，收入和每股收益均超过华尔街的公司第二天股价实际上落后标普500 0.1个百分点。这是double beats有记录以来最差的相对表现，或称alpha。</blockquote>This earnings season might not be all that different on that front, Subramanian argues. “Investors were unenthused by a big beat last quarter,” she wrote on Monday. “The only time in history (since 2000) that we saw negative alpha was in 2Q00, right at the peak of the Tech Bubble. Limited rewards indicate good news being priced in, and the rally since the last earnings season plus building euphoric sentiment lead us to suspect that a significant earnings beat may not translate to big market gains.”<blockquote>萨勃拉曼尼亚认为，这个财报季在这方面可能不会有太大不同。“投资者对上个季度的大幅上涨并不感兴趣，”她周一写道。“历史上（自2000年以来）我们唯一一次看到负阿尔法是在2000年第二季度，当时正值科技泡沫的高峰期。有限的回报表明好消息已被定价，自上一财报季以来的反弹加上日益增强的乐观情绪导致我们怀疑盈利大幅增长可能不会转化为市场大幅上涨。”</blockquote>For reopening-sensitive companies like restaurants, retailers, and other in-person dependent businesses, the focus will likely be on management commentary about how consumer behavior evolved over the quarter as the winter spike in Covid-19 cases eased, vaccinations accelerated, and government restrictions eased in much of the country. That will be seen as a preview of what’s to come later in 2021.<blockquote>对于餐馆、零售商和其他依赖面对面的企业等对重新开业敏感的公司来说，重点可能是管理层对随着Covid-19病例冬季高峰缓解、疫苗接种加速以及政府限制在该国大部分地区放松的情况下消费者行为在本季度如何演变的评论。这将被视为2021年晚些时候发生的事情的预演。</blockquote>Investors will also be listening intently to what management teams have to say about their supply chains and input costs. Beyond impacting profit margins, rising commodity prices and growing production constraints could keep companies from fully taking advantage of pent-up demand for their products. Warnings on that front could overshadow strong first-quarter results and lead to reduced earnings estimates for the remainder of 2021. Margins are expected to tighten for industrials and consumer staples firms, by 16% and 2%, respectively.<blockquote>投资者还将认真倾听管理团队对其供应链和投入成本的看法。除了影响利润率之外，大宗商品价格上涨和生产限制加剧可能会使企业无法充分利用被压抑的产品需求。这方面的警告可能会掩盖强劲的第一季度业绩，并导致2021年剩余时间的盈利预期下调。工业和消费必需品公司的利润率预计将分别收紧16%和2%。</blockquote>More quantifiably, investors will also be interested in what managements plan to do with their normalizing or growing cash flows as the pandemic recedes. “The sharp acceleration in earnings and [free cash flow] will increase the focus on how corporates decide to use their cash,” wrote UBS ’ chief U.S. equity strategist Keith Parker on Monday. “We see upside to capex and IT spend. We believe there is room to ramp up net buybacks to &gt;$600bn (+50%) this year.”<blockquote>更可以量化的是，随着疫情的消退，投资者还将对管理层计划如何处理正常化或增长的现金流感兴趣。瑞银首席美国股票策略师基思·帕克周一写道：“盈利和[自由现金流]的急剧加速将增加人们对企业如何决定使用现金的关注。”“我们看到资本支出和IT支出的上升空间。我们相信今年净回购有空间增加到6000亿美元以上（+50%）。”</blockquote>Finally, formal quarterly or full-year 2021 guidance may be the make-or-break variable for companies that didn’t surprise on earnings and sales in one direction or the other. Uncertainty regarding Covid-19 and economic outlook remain, but companies have now had a full year of operating in a pandemic, and most should be able to extrapolate the trends they’ve seen so far in 2021.<blockquote>最后，对于那些在一个方向或另一个方向的盈利和销售额上没有感到意外的公司来说，正式的2021年季度或全年指引可能是成败的变量。有关Covid-19和经济前景的不确定性仍然存在，但公司现在已经在大流行中运营了一整年，大多数公司应该能够推断出2021年迄今为止看到的趋势。</blockquote>Companies reporting in the coming days include Goldman Sachs Group (ticker: GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC) on Wednesday, followed by Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Delta Air Lines (DAL), PepsiCo (PEP), and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) on Thursday. Kansas City Southern (KSU) and Morgan Stanley (MS) report on Friday.<blockquote>未来几天将发布财报的公司包括周三的高盛集团（股票代码：GS）、摩根大通（JPM）和富国银行（WFC），其次是美国银行（BAC）、花旗集团（C）、达美航空（DAL）周四）、百事可乐（PEP）和联合健康集团（UNH）。堪萨斯城南方银行（KSU）和摩根士丹利（MS）周五发布报告。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Expectations Are High for This Earnings Season. Here’s What to Look For.<blockquote>人们对本财报季的期望很高。以下是要寻找的内容。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nExpectations Are High for This Earnings Season. Here’s What to Look For.<blockquote>人们对本财报季的期望很高。以下是要寻找的内容。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-04-13 18:44\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nFirst-quarter earnings season kicks off this week as several large U.S. banks report their results for the first three months of 2021. Expectations are high, with sales and profit forecasts rising through the quarter and shares rallying into the spring. It’s likely to be a blockbuster earnings season for many companies’ fundamentals, but their stock-price reactions may be more of a letdown. Investors should look to margins, spending plans, and management commentary to get the full picture.<blockquote>随着美国几家大型银行公布2021年前三个月的业绩，第一季度财报季将于本周拉开帷幕。人们的期望很高，整个季度的销售额和利润预测都在上升，股价也在春季反弹。对于许多公司的基本面来说，这可能是一个重磅财报季，但它们的股价反应可能更令人失望。投资者应该关注利润率、支出计划和管理层评论以了解全貌。</blockquote>Wall Street analysts’ bottom-up forecast is for first-quarter S&amp;P 500 earnings per share to jump by 21% year over year on a 6.4% rise in revenue, per data from Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist. The biggest relative gains are naturally seen coming from the more cyclical areas of the market: the S&amp;P 500 consumer discretionary sector is expected to report earnings per share growth of 82%, followed by 77% for financials and 45% for materials.<blockquote>根据瑞士信贷首席美国股票策略师Jonathan Golub的数据，华尔街分析师自下而上的预测是，标普500第一季度每股收益将同比增长21%，营收增长6.4%。最大的相对收益自然来自市场周期性较强的领域：标普500非必需消费品行业预计每股收益将增长82%，其次是金融股77%和材料股45%。</blockquote>That’s thanks to an improving economy, higher commodity prices, and an easy comparison to the year-ago period, which included several weeks of harsh lockdowns across the globe. The consensus earnings forecast is just 2% above 2019’s first quarter, before the Covid-19 pandemic. It follows 1% year-over-year profit growth in the fourth quarter of 2020. And the second quarter is expected to be even more explosive: a 51% surge in S&amp;P 500 earnings per share is the consensus estimate.<blockquote>这要归功于经济改善、大宗商品价格上涨以及与去年同期（其中包括全球范围内数周的严厉封锁）的轻松比较。市场普遍的盈利预测仅比Covid-19大流行之前的2019年第一季度高出2%。此前，2020年第四季度利润同比增长1%。预计第二季度将更具爆炸性：市场普遍预计标普500每股收益将飙升51%。</blockquote>The complicating factor for investors coming into this earnings season is that a strong rebound in earnings is far from a secret. Stocks have rallied in recent months, to record highs after record highs, as the market has focused on the accelerating vaccine rollout and unfolding economic recovery.<blockquote>对于进入本财报季的投资者来说，一个复杂的因素是，盈利的强劲反弹远非秘密。近几个月来，随着市场关注疫苗加速推出和经济复苏的展开，股市不断上涨，屡创新高。</blockquote>The first quarter will be time for a growing number of companies to live up to the hype. Airlines, hotels, and the like will still likely get a pass given their particularly pandemic-sensitive businesses, and a rosy outlook might suffice there. But investors will be holding a broader range of companies to account than they have since the start of the pandemic. Rapid year-over-year growth is priced into the market.<blockquote>第一季度将是越来越多的公司不负众望的时候。鉴于航空公司、酒店等对流行病特别敏感的业务，它们仍有可能获得通行证，乐观的前景可能就足够了。但与大流行开始以来相比，投资者将对更广泛的公司承担责任。同比快速增长已被市场消化。</blockquote>That’s a recipe for overall lukewarm—at best—reactions to what would normally be seen as very strong earnings. Take last earnings season, when companies that beat Wall Street numbers on both revenues and earnings per share actually saw their stock prices lag behind the S&amp;P 500 by 0.1 percentage point the next day, according to Savita Subramanian, BofA Securities’ chief U.S. equity and quantitative strategist. That was the worst relative performance, or alpha, for double beats on record.<blockquote>对于通常被视为非常强劲的盈利，总体反应充其量是不冷不热的。美国银行证券(BofA Securities)首席美国股票和量化策略师萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)表示，以上个财报季为例，收入和每股收益均超过华尔街的公司第二天股价实际上落后标普500 0.1个百分点。这是double beats有记录以来最差的相对表现，或称alpha。</blockquote>This earnings season might not be all that different on that front, Subramanian argues. “Investors were unenthused by a big beat last quarter,” she wrote on Monday. “The only time in history (since 2000) that we saw negative alpha was in 2Q00, right at the peak of the Tech Bubble. Limited rewards indicate good news being priced in, and the rally since the last earnings season plus building euphoric sentiment lead us to suspect that a significant earnings beat may not translate to big market gains.”<blockquote>萨勃拉曼尼亚认为，这个财报季在这方面可能不会有太大不同。“投资者对上个季度的大幅上涨并不感兴趣，”她周一写道。“历史上（自2000年以来）我们唯一一次看到负阿尔法是在2000年第二季度，当时正值科技泡沫的高峰期。有限的回报表明好消息已被定价，自上一财报季以来的反弹加上日益增强的乐观情绪导致我们怀疑盈利大幅增长可能不会转化为市场大幅上涨。”</blockquote>For reopening-sensitive companies like restaurants, retailers, and other in-person dependent businesses, the focus will likely be on management commentary about how consumer behavior evolved over the quarter as the winter spike in Covid-19 cases eased, vaccinations accelerated, and government restrictions eased in much of the country. That will be seen as a preview of what’s to come later in 2021.<blockquote>对于餐馆、零售商和其他依赖面对面的企业等对重新开业敏感的公司来说，重点可能是管理层对随着Covid-19病例冬季高峰缓解、疫苗接种加速以及政府限制在该国大部分地区放松的情况下消费者行为在本季度如何演变的评论。这将被视为2021年晚些时候发生的事情的预演。</blockquote>Investors will also be listening intently to what management teams have to say about their supply chains and input costs. Beyond impacting profit margins, rising commodity prices and growing production constraints could keep companies from fully taking advantage of pent-up demand for their products. Warnings on that front could overshadow strong first-quarter results and lead to reduced earnings estimates for the remainder of 2021. Margins are expected to tighten for industrials and consumer staples firms, by 16% and 2%, respectively.<blockquote>投资者还将认真倾听管理团队对其供应链和投入成本的看法。除了影响利润率之外，大宗商品价格上涨和生产限制加剧可能会使企业无法充分利用被压抑的产品需求。这方面的警告可能会掩盖强劲的第一季度业绩，并导致2021年剩余时间的盈利预期下调。工业和消费必需品公司的利润率预计将分别收紧16%和2%。</blockquote>More quantifiably, investors will also be interested in what managements plan to do with their normalizing or growing cash flows as the pandemic recedes. “The sharp acceleration in earnings and [free cash flow] will increase the focus on how corporates decide to use their cash,” wrote UBS ’ chief U.S. equity strategist Keith Parker on Monday. “We see upside to capex and IT spend. We believe there is room to ramp up net buybacks to &gt;$600bn (+50%) this year.”<blockquote>更可以量化的是，随着疫情的消退，投资者还将对管理层计划如何处理正常化或增长的现金流感兴趣。瑞银首席美国股票策略师基思·帕克周一写道：“盈利和[自由现金流]的急剧加速将增加人们对企业如何决定使用现金的关注。”“我们看到资本支出和IT支出的上升空间。我们相信今年净回购有空间增加到6000亿美元以上（+50%）。”</blockquote>Finally, formal quarterly or full-year 2021 guidance may be the make-or-break variable for companies that didn’t surprise on earnings and sales in one direction or the other. Uncertainty regarding Covid-19 and economic outlook remain, but companies have now had a full year of operating in a pandemic, and most should be able to extrapolate the trends they’ve seen so far in 2021.<blockquote>最后，对于那些在一个方向或另一个方向的盈利和销售额上没有感到意外的公司来说，正式的2021年季度或全年指引可能是成败的变量。有关Covid-19和经济前景的不确定性仍然存在，但公司现在已经在大流行中运营了一整年，大多数公司应该能够推断出2021年迄今为止看到的趋势。</blockquote>Companies reporting in the coming days include Goldman Sachs Group (ticker: GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC) on Wednesday, followed by Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Delta Air Lines (DAL), PepsiCo (PEP), and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) on Thursday. Kansas City Southern (KSU) and Morgan Stanley (MS) report on Friday.<blockquote>未来几天将发布财报的公司包括周三的高盛集团（股票代码：GS）、摩根大通（JPM）和富国银行（WFC），其次是美国银行（BAC）、花旗集团（C）、达美航空（DAL）周四）、百事可乐（PEP）和联合健康集团（UNH）。堪萨斯城南方银行（KSU）和摩根士丹利（MS）周五发布报告。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/expectations-are-high-for-this-earnings-season-heres-what-to-look-for-51618266227?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/expectations-are-high-for-this-earnings-season-heres-what-to-look-for-51618266227?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131702206","content_text":"First-quarter earnings season kicks off this week as several large U.S. banks report their results for the first three months of 2021. Expectations are high, with sales and profit forecasts rising through the quarter and shares rallying into the spring. It’s likely to be a blockbuster earnings season for many companies’ fundamentals, but their stock-price reactions may be more of a letdown. Investors should look to margins, spending plans, and management commentary to get the full picture.Wall Street analysts’ bottom-up forecast is for first-quarter S&P 500 earnings per share to jump by 21% year over year on a 6.4% rise in revenue, per data from Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist. The biggest relative gains are naturally seen coming from the more cyclical areas of the market: the S&P 500 consumer discretionary sector is expected to report earnings per share growth of 82%, followed by 77% for financials and 45% for materials.That’s thanks to an improving economy, higher commodity prices, and an easy comparison to the year-ago period, which included several weeks of harsh lockdowns across the globe. The consensus earnings forecast is just 2% above 2019’s first quarter, before the Covid-19 pandemic. It follows 1% year-over-year profit growth in the fourth quarter of 2020. And the second quarter is expected to be even more explosive: a 51% surge in S&P 500 earnings per share is the consensus estimate.The complicating factor for investors coming into this earnings season is that a strong rebound in earnings is far from a secret. Stocks have rallied in recent months, to record highs after record highs, as the market has focused on the accelerating vaccine rollout and unfolding economic recovery.The first quarter will be time for a growing number of companies to live up to the hype. Airlines, hotels, and the like will still likely get a pass given their particularly pandemic-sensitive businesses, and a rosy outlook might suffice there. But investors will be holding a broader range of companies to account than they have since the start of the pandemic. Rapid year-over-year growth is priced into the market.That’s a recipe for overall lukewarm—at best—reactions to what would normally be seen as very strong earnings. Take last earnings season, when companies that beat Wall Street numbers on both revenues and earnings per share actually saw their stock prices lag behind the S&P 500 by 0.1 percentage point the next day, according to Savita Subramanian, BofA Securities’ chief U.S. equity and quantitative strategist. That was the worst relative performance, or alpha, for double beats on record.This earnings season might not be all that different on that front, Subramanian argues. “Investors were unenthused by a big beat last quarter,” she wrote on Monday. “The only time in history (since 2000) that we saw negative alpha was in 2Q00, right at the peak of the Tech Bubble. Limited rewards indicate good news being priced in, and the rally since the last earnings season plus building euphoric sentiment lead us to suspect that a significant earnings beat may not translate to big market gains.”For reopening-sensitive companies like restaurants, retailers, and other in-person dependent businesses, the focus will likely be on management commentary about how consumer behavior evolved over the quarter as the winter spike in Covid-19 cases eased, vaccinations accelerated, and government restrictions eased in much of the country. That will be seen as a preview of what’s to come later in 2021.Investors will also be listening intently to what management teams have to say about their supply chains and input costs. Beyond impacting profit margins, rising commodity prices and growing production constraints could keep companies from fully taking advantage of pent-up demand for their products. Warnings on that front could overshadow strong first-quarter results and lead to reduced earnings estimates for the remainder of 2021. Margins are expected to tighten for industrials and consumer staples firms, by 16% and 2%, respectively.More quantifiably, investors will also be interested in what managements plan to do with their normalizing or growing cash flows as the pandemic recedes. “The sharp acceleration in earnings and [free cash flow] will increase the focus on how corporates decide to use their cash,” wrote UBS ’ chief U.S. equity strategist Keith Parker on Monday. “We see upside to capex and IT spend. We believe there is room to ramp up net buybacks to >$600bn (+50%) this year.”Finally, formal quarterly or full-year 2021 guidance may be the make-or-break variable for companies that didn’t surprise on earnings and sales in one direction or the other. Uncertainty regarding Covid-19 and economic outlook remain, but companies have now had a full year of operating in a pandemic, and most should be able to extrapolate the trends they’ve seen so far in 2021.Companies reporting in the coming days include Goldman Sachs Group (ticker: GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC) on Wednesday, followed by Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Delta Air Lines (DAL), PepsiCo (PEP), and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) on Thursday. Kansas City Southern (KSU) and Morgan Stanley (MS) report on Friday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4024356,"gmtCreate":1618311680113,"gmtModify":1635739658174,"authorId":3574834957835877,"author":{"id":3574834957835877,"idStr":"3574834957835877","authorId":3574834957835877,"name":"Jeph","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d84ddcaae60f793877f3447bc18beda","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":345622264,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Look around ","text":"Look around ","html":"Look around "},{"id":4032426,"gmtCreate":1618388094687,"gmtModify":1635739125497,"authorId":3577351762187878,"author":{"id":3577351762187878,"idStr":"3577351762187878","authorId":3577351762187878,"name":"ChemGoh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":345622264,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Finding ","text":"Finding ","html":"Finding "},{"id":4032442,"gmtCreate":1618388186500,"gmtModify":1635739124642,"authorId":3574834957835877,"author":{"id":3574834957835877,"idStr":"3574834957835877","authorId":3574834957835877,"name":"Jeph","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d84ddcaae60f793877f3447bc18beda","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":345622264,"type":1,"supId":4024356,"prevId":0,"content":"Found?","text":"Found?","html":"Found?"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":345629398,"gmtCreate":1618310789614,"gmtModify":1634293806706,"author":{"id":"3575347929625988","authorId":"3575347929625988","name":"LoBangKing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4365905903ea4e3c2ad9bf87d6fe8668","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575347929625988","authorIdStr":"3575347929625988"},"htmlText":"Ya ya true true","listText":"Ya ya true true","text":"Ya ya true true","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345629398","repostId":1131702206,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131702206","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618310678,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131702206?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-13 18:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Expectations Are High for This Earnings Season. Here’s What to Look For.<blockquote>人们对本财报季的期望很高。以下是要寻找的内容。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131702206","media":"Barron's","summary":"First-quarter earnings season kicks off this week as several large U.S. banks report their results f","content":"First-quarter earnings season kicks off this week as several large U.S. banks report their results for the first three months of 2021. Expectations are high, with sales and profit forecasts rising through the quarter and shares rallying into the spring. It’s likely to be a blockbuster earnings season for many companies’ fundamentals, but their stock-price reactions may be more of a letdown. Investors should look to margins, spending plans, and management commentary to get the full picture.<blockquote>随着美国几家大型银行公布2021年前三个月的业绩，第一季度财报季将于本周拉开帷幕。人们的期望很高，整个季度的销售额和利润预测都在上升，股价也在春季反弹。对于许多公司的基本面来说，这可能是一个重磅财报季，但它们的股价反应可能更令人失望。投资者应该关注利润率、支出计划和管理层评论以了解全貌。</blockquote>Wall Street analysts’ bottom-up forecast is for first-quarter S&amp;P 500 earnings per share to jump by 21% year over year on a 6.4% rise in revenue, per data from Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist. The biggest relative gains are naturally seen coming from the more cyclical areas of the market: the S&amp;P 500 consumer discretionary sector is expected to report earnings per share growth of 82%, followed by 77% for financials and 45% for materials.<blockquote>根据瑞士信贷首席美国股票策略师Jonathan Golub的数据，华尔街分析师自下而上的预测是，标普500第一季度每股收益将同比增长21%，营收增长6.4%。最大的相对收益自然来自市场周期性较强的领域：标普500非必需消费品行业预计每股收益将增长82%，其次是金融股77%和材料股45%。</blockquote>That’s thanks to an improving economy, higher commodity prices, and an easy comparison to the year-ago period, which included several weeks of harsh lockdowns across the globe. The consensus earnings forecast is just 2% above 2019’s first quarter, before the Covid-19 pandemic. It follows 1% year-over-year profit growth in the fourth quarter of 2020. And the second quarter is expected to be even more explosive: a 51% surge in S&amp;P 500 earnings per share is the consensus estimate.<blockquote>这要归功于经济改善、大宗商品价格上涨以及与去年同期（其中包括全球范围内数周的严厉封锁）的轻松比较。市场普遍的盈利预测仅比Covid-19大流行之前的2019年第一季度高出2%。此前，2020年第四季度利润同比增长1%。预计第二季度将更具爆炸性：市场普遍预计标普500每股收益将飙升51%。</blockquote>The complicating factor for investors coming into this earnings season is that a strong rebound in earnings is far from a secret. Stocks have rallied in recent months, to record highs after record highs, as the market has focused on the accelerating vaccine rollout and unfolding economic recovery.<blockquote>对于进入本财报季的投资者来说，一个复杂的因素是，盈利的强劲反弹远非秘密。近几个月来，随着市场关注疫苗加速推出和经济复苏的展开，股市不断上涨，屡创新高。</blockquote>The first quarter will be time for a growing number of companies to live up to the hype. Airlines, hotels, and the like will still likely get a pass given their particularly pandemic-sensitive businesses, and a rosy outlook might suffice there. But investors will be holding a broader range of companies to account than they have since the start of the pandemic. Rapid year-over-year growth is priced into the market.<blockquote>第一季度将是越来越多的公司不负众望的时候。鉴于航空公司、酒店等对流行病特别敏感的业务，它们仍有可能获得通行证，乐观的前景可能就足够了。但与大流行开始以来相比，投资者将对更广泛的公司承担责任。同比快速增长已被市场消化。</blockquote>That’s a recipe for overall lukewarm—at best—reactions to what would normally be seen as very strong earnings. Take last earnings season, when companies that beat Wall Street numbers on both revenues and earnings per share actually saw their stock prices lag behind the S&amp;P 500 by 0.1 percentage point the next day, according to Savita Subramanian, BofA Securities’ chief U.S. equity and quantitative strategist. That was the worst relative performance, or alpha, for double beats on record.<blockquote>对于通常被视为非常强劲的盈利，总体反应充其量是不冷不热的。美国银行证券(BofA Securities)首席美国股票和量化策略师萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)表示，以上个财报季为例，收入和每股收益均超过华尔街的公司第二天股价实际上落后标普500 0.1个百分点。这是double beats有记录以来最差的相对表现，或称alpha。</blockquote>This earnings season might not be all that different on that front, Subramanian argues. “Investors were unenthused by a big beat last quarter,” she wrote on Monday. “The only time in history (since 2000) that we saw negative alpha was in 2Q00, right at the peak of the Tech Bubble. Limited rewards indicate good news being priced in, and the rally since the last earnings season plus building euphoric sentiment lead us to suspect that a significant earnings beat may not translate to big market gains.”<blockquote>萨勃拉曼尼亚认为，这个财报季在这方面可能不会有太大不同。“投资者对上个季度的大幅上涨并不感兴趣，”她周一写道。“历史上（自2000年以来）我们唯一一次看到负阿尔法是在2000年第二季度，当时正值科技泡沫的高峰期。有限的回报表明好消息已被定价，自上一财报季以来的反弹加上日益增强的乐观情绪导致我们怀疑盈利大幅增长可能不会转化为市场大幅上涨。”</blockquote>For reopening-sensitive companies like restaurants, retailers, and other in-person dependent businesses, the focus will likely be on management commentary about how consumer behavior evolved over the quarter as the winter spike in Covid-19 cases eased, vaccinations accelerated, and government restrictions eased in much of the country. That will be seen as a preview of what’s to come later in 2021.<blockquote>对于餐馆、零售商和其他依赖面对面的企业等对重新开业敏感的公司来说，重点可能是管理层对随着Covid-19病例冬季高峰缓解、疫苗接种加速以及政府限制在该国大部分地区放松的情况下消费者行为在本季度如何演变的评论。这将被视为2021年晚些时候发生的事情的预演。</blockquote>Investors will also be listening intently to what management teams have to say about their supply chains and input costs. Beyond impacting profit margins, rising commodity prices and growing production constraints could keep companies from fully taking advantage of pent-up demand for their products. Warnings on that front could overshadow strong first-quarter results and lead to reduced earnings estimates for the remainder of 2021. Margins are expected to tighten for industrials and consumer staples firms, by 16% and 2%, respectively.<blockquote>投资者还将认真倾听管理团队对其供应链和投入成本的看法。除了影响利润率之外，大宗商品价格上涨和生产限制加剧可能会使企业无法充分利用被压抑的产品需求。这方面的警告可能会掩盖强劲的第一季度业绩，并导致2021年剩余时间的盈利预期下调。工业和消费必需品公司的利润率预计将分别收紧16%和2%。</blockquote>More quantifiably, investors will also be interested in what managements plan to do with their normalizing or growing cash flows as the pandemic recedes. “The sharp acceleration in earnings and [free cash flow] will increase the focus on how corporates decide to use their cash,” wrote UBS ’ chief U.S. equity strategist Keith Parker on Monday. “We see upside to capex and IT spend. We believe there is room to ramp up net buybacks to &gt;$600bn (+50%) this year.”<blockquote>更可以量化的是，随着疫情的消退，投资者还将对管理层计划如何处理正常化或增长的现金流感兴趣。瑞银首席美国股票策略师基思·帕克周一写道：“盈利和[自由现金流]的急剧加速将增加人们对企业如何决定使用现金的关注。”“我们看到资本支出和IT支出的上升空间。我们相信今年净回购有空间增加到6000亿美元以上（+50%）。”</blockquote>Finally, formal quarterly or full-year 2021 guidance may be the make-or-break variable for companies that didn’t surprise on earnings and sales in one direction or the other. Uncertainty regarding Covid-19 and economic outlook remain, but companies have now had a full year of operating in a pandemic, and most should be able to extrapolate the trends they’ve seen so far in 2021.<blockquote>最后，对于那些在一个方向或另一个方向的盈利和销售额上没有感到意外的公司来说，正式的2021年季度或全年指引可能是成败的变量。有关Covid-19和经济前景的不确定性仍然存在，但公司现在已经在大流行中运营了一整年，大多数公司应该能够推断出2021年迄今为止看到的趋势。</blockquote>Companies reporting in the coming days include Goldman Sachs Group (ticker: GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC) on Wednesday, followed by Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Delta Air Lines (DAL), PepsiCo (PEP), and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) on Thursday. Kansas City Southern (KSU) and Morgan Stanley (MS) report on Friday.<blockquote>未来几天将发布财报的公司包括周三的高盛集团（股票代码：GS）、摩根大通（JPM）和富国银行（WFC），其次是美国银行（BAC）、花旗集团（C）、达美航空（DAL）周四）、百事可乐（PEP）和联合健康集团（UNH）。堪萨斯城南方银行（KSU）和摩根士丹利（MS）周五发布报告。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Expectations Are High for This Earnings Season. Here’s What to Look For.<blockquote>人们对本财报季的期望很高。以下是要寻找的内容。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nExpectations Are High for This Earnings Season. Here’s What to Look For.<blockquote>人们对本财报季的期望很高。以下是要寻找的内容。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-04-13 18:44\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nFirst-quarter earnings season kicks off this week as several large U.S. banks report their results for the first three months of 2021. Expectations are high, with sales and profit forecasts rising through the quarter and shares rallying into the spring. It’s likely to be a blockbuster earnings season for many companies’ fundamentals, but their stock-price reactions may be more of a letdown. Investors should look to margins, spending plans, and management commentary to get the full picture.<blockquote>随着美国几家大型银行公布2021年前三个月的业绩，第一季度财报季将于本周拉开帷幕。人们的期望很高，整个季度的销售额和利润预测都在上升，股价也在春季反弹。对于许多公司的基本面来说，这可能是一个重磅财报季，但它们的股价反应可能更令人失望。投资者应该关注利润率、支出计划和管理层评论以了解全貌。</blockquote>Wall Street analysts’ bottom-up forecast is for first-quarter S&amp;P 500 earnings per share to jump by 21% year over year on a 6.4% rise in revenue, per data from Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist. The biggest relative gains are naturally seen coming from the more cyclical areas of the market: the S&amp;P 500 consumer discretionary sector is expected to report earnings per share growth of 82%, followed by 77% for financials and 45% for materials.<blockquote>根据瑞士信贷首席美国股票策略师Jonathan Golub的数据，华尔街分析师自下而上的预测是，标普500第一季度每股收益将同比增长21%，营收增长6.4%。最大的相对收益自然来自市场周期性较强的领域：标普500非必需消费品行业预计每股收益将增长82%，其次是金融股77%和材料股45%。</blockquote>That’s thanks to an improving economy, higher commodity prices, and an easy comparison to the year-ago period, which included several weeks of harsh lockdowns across the globe. The consensus earnings forecast is just 2% above 2019’s first quarter, before the Covid-19 pandemic. It follows 1% year-over-year profit growth in the fourth quarter of 2020. And the second quarter is expected to be even more explosive: a 51% surge in S&amp;P 500 earnings per share is the consensus estimate.<blockquote>这要归功于经济改善、大宗商品价格上涨以及与去年同期（其中包括全球范围内数周的严厉封锁）的轻松比较。市场普遍的盈利预测仅比Covid-19大流行之前的2019年第一季度高出2%。此前，2020年第四季度利润同比增长1%。预计第二季度将更具爆炸性：市场普遍预计标普500每股收益将飙升51%。</blockquote>The complicating factor for investors coming into this earnings season is that a strong rebound in earnings is far from a secret. Stocks have rallied in recent months, to record highs after record highs, as the market has focused on the accelerating vaccine rollout and unfolding economic recovery.<blockquote>对于进入本财报季的投资者来说，一个复杂的因素是，盈利的强劲反弹远非秘密。近几个月来，随着市场关注疫苗加速推出和经济复苏的展开，股市不断上涨，屡创新高。</blockquote>The first quarter will be time for a growing number of companies to live up to the hype. Airlines, hotels, and the like will still likely get a pass given their particularly pandemic-sensitive businesses, and a rosy outlook might suffice there. But investors will be holding a broader range of companies to account than they have since the start of the pandemic. Rapid year-over-year growth is priced into the market.<blockquote>第一季度将是越来越多的公司不负众望的时候。鉴于航空公司、酒店等对流行病特别敏感的业务，它们仍有可能获得通行证，乐观的前景可能就足够了。但与大流行开始以来相比，投资者将对更广泛的公司承担责任。同比快速增长已被市场消化。</blockquote>That’s a recipe for overall lukewarm—at best—reactions to what would normally be seen as very strong earnings. Take last earnings season, when companies that beat Wall Street numbers on both revenues and earnings per share actually saw their stock prices lag behind the S&amp;P 500 by 0.1 percentage point the next day, according to Savita Subramanian, BofA Securities’ chief U.S. equity and quantitative strategist. That was the worst relative performance, or alpha, for double beats on record.<blockquote>对于通常被视为非常强劲的盈利，总体反应充其量是不冷不热的。美国银行证券(BofA Securities)首席美国股票和量化策略师萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)表示，以上个财报季为例，收入和每股收益均超过华尔街的公司第二天股价实际上落后标普500 0.1个百分点。这是double beats有记录以来最差的相对表现，或称alpha。</blockquote>This earnings season might not be all that different on that front, Subramanian argues. “Investors were unenthused by a big beat last quarter,” she wrote on Monday. “The only time in history (since 2000) that we saw negative alpha was in 2Q00, right at the peak of the Tech Bubble. Limited rewards indicate good news being priced in, and the rally since the last earnings season plus building euphoric sentiment lead us to suspect that a significant earnings beat may not translate to big market gains.”<blockquote>萨勃拉曼尼亚认为，这个财报季在这方面可能不会有太大不同。“投资者对上个季度的大幅上涨并不感兴趣，”她周一写道。“历史上（自2000年以来）我们唯一一次看到负阿尔法是在2000年第二季度，当时正值科技泡沫的高峰期。有限的回报表明好消息已被定价，自上一财报季以来的反弹加上日益增强的乐观情绪导致我们怀疑盈利大幅增长可能不会转化为市场大幅上涨。”</blockquote>For reopening-sensitive companies like restaurants, retailers, and other in-person dependent businesses, the focus will likely be on management commentary about how consumer behavior evolved over the quarter as the winter spike in Covid-19 cases eased, vaccinations accelerated, and government restrictions eased in much of the country. That will be seen as a preview of what’s to come later in 2021.<blockquote>对于餐馆、零售商和其他依赖面对面的企业等对重新开业敏感的公司来说，重点可能是管理层对随着Covid-19病例冬季高峰缓解、疫苗接种加速以及政府限制在该国大部分地区放松的情况下消费者行为在本季度如何演变的评论。这将被视为2021年晚些时候发生的事情的预演。</blockquote>Investors will also be listening intently to what management teams have to say about their supply chains and input costs. Beyond impacting profit margins, rising commodity prices and growing production constraints could keep companies from fully taking advantage of pent-up demand for their products. Warnings on that front could overshadow strong first-quarter results and lead to reduced earnings estimates for the remainder of 2021. Margins are expected to tighten for industrials and consumer staples firms, by 16% and 2%, respectively.<blockquote>投资者还将认真倾听管理团队对其供应链和投入成本的看法。除了影响利润率之外，大宗商品价格上涨和生产限制加剧可能会使企业无法充分利用被压抑的产品需求。这方面的警告可能会掩盖强劲的第一季度业绩，并导致2021年剩余时间的盈利预期下调。工业和消费必需品公司的利润率预计将分别收紧16%和2%。</blockquote>More quantifiably, investors will also be interested in what managements plan to do with their normalizing or growing cash flows as the pandemic recedes. “The sharp acceleration in earnings and [free cash flow] will increase the focus on how corporates decide to use their cash,” wrote UBS ’ chief U.S. equity strategist Keith Parker on Monday. “We see upside to capex and IT spend. We believe there is room to ramp up net buybacks to &gt;$600bn (+50%) this year.”<blockquote>更可以量化的是，随着疫情的消退，投资者还将对管理层计划如何处理正常化或增长的现金流感兴趣。瑞银首席美国股票策略师基思·帕克周一写道：“盈利和[自由现金流]的急剧加速将增加人们对企业如何决定使用现金的关注。”“我们看到资本支出和IT支出的上升空间。我们相信今年净回购有空间增加到6000亿美元以上（+50%）。”</blockquote>Finally, formal quarterly or full-year 2021 guidance may be the make-or-break variable for companies that didn’t surprise on earnings and sales in one direction or the other. Uncertainty regarding Covid-19 and economic outlook remain, but companies have now had a full year of operating in a pandemic, and most should be able to extrapolate the trends they’ve seen so far in 2021.<blockquote>最后，对于那些在一个方向或另一个方向的盈利和销售额上没有感到意外的公司来说，正式的2021年季度或全年指引可能是成败的变量。有关Covid-19和经济前景的不确定性仍然存在，但公司现在已经在大流行中运营了一整年，大多数公司应该能够推断出2021年迄今为止看到的趋势。</blockquote>Companies reporting in the coming days include Goldman Sachs Group (ticker: GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC) on Wednesday, followed by Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Delta Air Lines (DAL), PepsiCo (PEP), and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) on Thursday. Kansas City Southern (KSU) and Morgan Stanley (MS) report on Friday.<blockquote>未来几天将发布财报的公司包括周三的高盛集团（股票代码：GS）、摩根大通（JPM）和富国银行（WFC），其次是美国银行（BAC）、花旗集团（C）、达美航空（DAL）周四）、百事可乐（PEP）和联合健康集团（UNH）。堪萨斯城南方银行（KSU）和摩根士丹利（MS）周五发布报告。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/expectations-are-high-for-this-earnings-season-heres-what-to-look-for-51618266227?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/expectations-are-high-for-this-earnings-season-heres-what-to-look-for-51618266227?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131702206","content_text":"First-quarter earnings season kicks off this week as several large U.S. banks report their results for the first three months of 2021. Expectations are high, with sales and profit forecasts rising through the quarter and shares rallying into the spring. It’s likely to be a blockbuster earnings season for many companies’ fundamentals, but their stock-price reactions may be more of a letdown. Investors should look to margins, spending plans, and management commentary to get the full picture.Wall Street analysts’ bottom-up forecast is for first-quarter S&P 500 earnings per share to jump by 21% year over year on a 6.4% rise in revenue, per data from Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist. The biggest relative gains are naturally seen coming from the more cyclical areas of the market: the S&P 500 consumer discretionary sector is expected to report earnings per share growth of 82%, followed by 77% for financials and 45% for materials.That’s thanks to an improving economy, higher commodity prices, and an easy comparison to the year-ago period, which included several weeks of harsh lockdowns across the globe. The consensus earnings forecast is just 2% above 2019’s first quarter, before the Covid-19 pandemic. It follows 1% year-over-year profit growth in the fourth quarter of 2020. And the second quarter is expected to be even more explosive: a 51% surge in S&P 500 earnings per share is the consensus estimate.The complicating factor for investors coming into this earnings season is that a strong rebound in earnings is far from a secret. Stocks have rallied in recent months, to record highs after record highs, as the market has focused on the accelerating vaccine rollout and unfolding economic recovery.The first quarter will be time for a growing number of companies to live up to the hype. Airlines, hotels, and the like will still likely get a pass given their particularly pandemic-sensitive businesses, and a rosy outlook might suffice there. But investors will be holding a broader range of companies to account than they have since the start of the pandemic. Rapid year-over-year growth is priced into the market.That’s a recipe for overall lukewarm—at best—reactions to what would normally be seen as very strong earnings. Take last earnings season, when companies that beat Wall Street numbers on both revenues and earnings per share actually saw their stock prices lag behind the S&P 500 by 0.1 percentage point the next day, according to Savita Subramanian, BofA Securities’ chief U.S. equity and quantitative strategist. That was the worst relative performance, or alpha, for double beats on record.This earnings season might not be all that different on that front, Subramanian argues. “Investors were unenthused by a big beat last quarter,” she wrote on Monday. “The only time in history (since 2000) that we saw negative alpha was in 2Q00, right at the peak of the Tech Bubble. Limited rewards indicate good news being priced in, and the rally since the last earnings season plus building euphoric sentiment lead us to suspect that a significant earnings beat may not translate to big market gains.”For reopening-sensitive companies like restaurants, retailers, and other in-person dependent businesses, the focus will likely be on management commentary about how consumer behavior evolved over the quarter as the winter spike in Covid-19 cases eased, vaccinations accelerated, and government restrictions eased in much of the country. That will be seen as a preview of what’s to come later in 2021.Investors will also be listening intently to what management teams have to say about their supply chains and input costs. Beyond impacting profit margins, rising commodity prices and growing production constraints could keep companies from fully taking advantage of pent-up demand for their products. Warnings on that front could overshadow strong first-quarter results and lead to reduced earnings estimates for the remainder of 2021. Margins are expected to tighten for industrials and consumer staples firms, by 16% and 2%, respectively.More quantifiably, investors will also be interested in what managements plan to do with their normalizing or growing cash flows as the pandemic recedes. “The sharp acceleration in earnings and [free cash flow] will increase the focus on how corporates decide to use their cash,” wrote UBS ’ chief U.S. equity strategist Keith Parker on Monday. “We see upside to capex and IT spend. We believe there is room to ramp up net buybacks to >$600bn (+50%) this year.”Finally, formal quarterly or full-year 2021 guidance may be the make-or-break variable for companies that didn’t surprise on earnings and sales in one direction or the other. Uncertainty regarding Covid-19 and economic outlook remain, but companies have now had a full year of operating in a pandemic, and most should be able to extrapolate the trends they’ve seen so far in 2021.Companies reporting in the coming days include Goldman Sachs Group (ticker: GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC) on Wednesday, followed by Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Delta Air Lines (DAL), PepsiCo (PEP), and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) on Thursday. Kansas City Southern (KSU) and Morgan Stanley (MS) report on Friday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":37,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}