无论阿里的季度财报如何，其增长都将势不可挡_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

无论阿里的季度财报如何，其增长都将势不可挡

猛兽财经2021-11-17

11月18日（周四），阿里巴巴将发布原计划在9月份公布的季度财报。考虑到阿里面临的不确定性，投资者有充分的理由担心此类延迟带来的影响。然而，通过全面分析，我们发现大家大可不必有这样的焦虑和担心。即使核心收益减半，阿里巴巴仍然是一项不错的投资。首先，由于市场的过度反应，阿里巴巴目前的估值被压缩的非常低。即使该股永久性的损失了其核心收益的一半，但以目前的价格，它仍然是一项很好的投资。阿里巴巴目前的...

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免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

拿着青春陪你赌
·2022-04-05
我来自2022，三月份大家会见识到70块的阿里巴巴[开心]
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wwww_wu
·2021-11-18
阿里和万科一样，长多短空，双方都在转型的阵痛期！平安的转型已经迎来曙光，继续等待
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- metastone:
  万科和阿里都买了，平安看不懂。
  2021-11-19
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MG黄
·2021-11-18
写多两句，就发不出去了，哎。老虎这个软件也是可以。
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MG黄
·2021-11-18
。
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MG黄
·2021-11-18
阿里国际站成天搞广告，Ui还是10几年前的UI，各种bug。讲师成天教你怎么搞广告充钱变强消灭对手啥的。淘宝刷单刷好评，东西越卖越贵。支付宝全是垃圾广告。总之问题可太多了。电子商务啥的也不是它一家能做。不过看到阿里一步步走到这里，还是很难受的。希望解决这些问题。加油阿里！
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- 25d459fd:
  😄阿里都这样，其他的企业可想而知
  2021-11-18
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大脑斧嗷呜
·2021-11-17
好，猛兽财经的分析观点非常明确，不含糊其辞[强]
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gogoking
·2021-11-17
长期还是看好的
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嘞撸虎7
·2021-11-17
阅
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爱我丿你pua了吗丿
·2021-11-17
[贱笑]
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拿着青春陪你赌
·2021-11-17
虽然我也想涨，但我更想看你打脸
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1
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Sam Ang
·2021-11-17
阅
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1
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Rappi
·2021-11-17
呵呵
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1
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云在青霄
·2021-11-17
我信你个鬼，一本正经的胡说！
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remydotn
·2021-11-17
财报都没看就开始吹小编也太过分了吧
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- remydotn:
  未来？是人口增量啊还是人均工资增长啊？
  2021-11-17
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- Alan_董:
  所谓投资，看的是源源不断的动力和未来。
  2021-11-17
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气球气球
·2021-11-17
标题好似垂死前的衰嚎
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运气牛
·2021-11-17
即使再优秀，也永远不要买中概股！
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href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ElawS-JO7w8zfPbr1X67aQ><strong>猛兽财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>11月18日（周四），阿里巴巴将发布原计划在9月份公布的季度财报。考虑到阿里面临的不确定性，投资者有充分的理由担心此类延迟带来的影响。然而，通过全面分析，我们发现大家大可不必有这样的焦虑和担心。即使核心收益减半，阿里巴巴仍然是一项不错的投资。\n首先，由于市场的过度反应，阿里巴巴目前的估值被压缩的非常低。即使该股永久性的损失了其核心收益的一半，但以目前的价格，它仍然是一项很好的投资。\n阿里巴巴目前的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ElawS-JO7w8zfPbr1X67aQ\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"09988","symbol_name":"阿里巴巴-SW","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ElawS-JO7w8zfPbr1X67aQ","article_id":"1129470402","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/d752152b73947ff2f4b1c08ab9eecc39"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129470402","pubTimestamp":1637145022,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1586862168255","name":"猛兽财经"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"即使核心收益减半，阿里巴巴仍然是一项不错的投资。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-SW","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"translate_title":"Regardless of Ali's quarterly earnings, its growth will be unstoppable","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb5f1cba2d51993cd31834efa3f20b4b","symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.9},"content_text":"11月18日（周四），阿里巴巴将发布原计划在9月份公布的季度财报。考虑到阿里面临的不确定性，投资者有充分的理由担心此类延迟带来的影响。然而，通过全面分析，我们发现大家大可不必有这样的焦虑和担心。即使核心收益减半，阿里巴巴仍然是一项不错的投资。\n首先，由于市场的过度反应，阿里巴巴目前的估值被压缩的非常低。即使该股永久性的损失了其核心收益的一半，但以目前的价格，它仍然是一项很好的投资。\n阿里巴巴目前的年度运营现金为333亿美元。在中国的商业零售和批发业务是其主要业务，占总销售额的2/3以上。这也是监管部门的措施对阿里巴巴产生最大影响的地方。现在，让我们假设一下对阿里巴巴造成的影响1)影响非常大，2)影响只会对阿里巴巴造成单方面的伤害，而对阿里巴巴的竞争对手没有任何影响，因此阿里巴巴失去了这一核心收入的一半。\n目前，阿里巴巴持有410亿美元的现金头寸。它承诺在未来五年内向共同富裕基金捐款155亿美元。从目前的现金头寸中扣除这一贡献，阿里巴巴实际持有的现金头寸为255亿美元。这使得分析更加保守，因为它假设贡献是真正的成本或税收。但实际上，从公告的措辞来看，这样的贡献可能会为阿里巴巴带来一些回报。听起来像是风险投资基金。事实上，我们认为共同富裕基金的贡献对于阿里巴巴来说是一种积极的发展，对于阿里巴巴和监管部门来说也是一种非常合理和理性的方式。\n阿里巴巴的增长潜力\n如前所述，商业零售和批发是阿里巴巴目前最核心的业务。这也是监管部门对阿里巴巴造成影响最大的地方。\n阿里巴巴的主要业务有，包括国际商业零售、国际批发、菜鸟物流服务、云计算、数字媒体和娱乐等。如你所见，所有这些业务都在高速增长，并且年增长率高达50%以上，总体年增长率在35%左右。此外，阿里巴巴在所有这些领域都处于领先地位，正在进行的监管打击对阿里巴巴在这些领域的影响应该是最小的(至少根据目前公布的规定)。\n即使阿里巴巴有一半的核心业务受到影响，考虑到它有这么多高增长和高利润的细分业务，这仍然是一笔不错的投资。\n接下来，我们将看到这些高速增长的业务将得益于阿里巴巴强劲的长期趋势，而阿里巴巴也处于独特的资本地位。\n电子商务是世界不可阻挡的趋势\n我们的世界正朝着电子商务发展，这是一个不可阻挡的趋势。尽管阿里巴巴和亚马逊（AMZN）等电子商务巨头的成功给我们留下了深刻的印象，但电子商务的发展实际上才刚刚开始，大部分的增长还没有到来。\n从下图可以看出，全球电子商务渗透率一直在平稳快速的增长。在短短4年时间里，电子商务渗透率从2016年的10.5%几乎翻了一番，达到目前的20.2%，复合年增长率接近19%。然而，目前的电子商务渗透仍仅在20%左右。这意味着有80%的零售业务目前仍在线下进行。2020年，全球电子商务零售销售额达到了4.2万亿美元。预计到2026年，这一数字将翻一番，电子商务业务的收入将达到7.4万亿美元。所以电子商务在全球才刚刚起步，大量的增长机会尚未到来。\n\n剩下的电子商务机会将在亚太地区\n简而言之，即使是在2023年，也就是在大约2年内，亚太地区的零售电子商务销售额预计将超过世界其他地区的总和。到2023年，亚太地区的零售电子商务总额将达到1.4万亿美元。相比之下，世界其他地区的零售电子商务总额将只有1.3万亿美元左右。相对而言，到2023年，西方国家将贡献电子商务总量的16%，而其余84%将来自非西方国家。推动这种长期增长的原因包括:(1)世界人口主要分布在亚太地区;(2)快速城市化和科技进步;(3)超过85%的新增中产阶级居住在亚太地区;(4)政府的激励以及私营部门(如中国和印度)加快向电子商务转型的举措。\n而且，阿里巴巴最有可能从亚太地区的发展势头中获益\n而阿里巴巴最有可能从中受益。利用电子商务的持续增长需要规模和覆盖范围、政府支持和技术的支持。最后，地理上的接近和文化上的兼容性当然也有帮助。而且，阿里巴巴已经将所有这些业务做好了进一步扩张的准备——至少是在亚太地区。监管部门可能正在收紧对国内市场的监管，但它肯定会鼓励阿里巴巴这样的科技巨头向海外扩张。阿里巴巴在占领海外市场方面已经取得了实质性的领先地位。在国际市场上，阿里巴巴的营收和整体AAC继续强劲增长，近年来AAC达到2.65亿，营收同比增长了50%以上。例如，Lazada在2021年的同比增长超过了90%，其中印尼和越南的同比增长超过100%，增幅最高。\n文化兼容性也可以成为阿里巴巴在海外扩张的无形资产，另一个例子是阿里巴巴的客户管理收入。客户管理收入是对绩效营销服务的支付。广告商/商家为匹配服务或产品列表的关键词竞价。这些收入(例如与淘宝和天猫相关的收入)是阿里巴巴收入的重要组成部分，具有极高的盈利能力(约60%+息税前利润率)。\n阿里巴巴一直在努力改进界面和推荐feed。淘宝最近的努力包括推出个性化订阅，以及定期更新的淘宝应用程序。该公司对个性化购物的愿景是，利用阿里巴巴掌握的所有用户数据，向购物者展示他们之前从未搜索、从未购买、甚至从未想到过的产品。阿里巴巴为其新的淘宝feeds开发了总计10万个目标主题，并提供了3亿种产品和服务。\n可以想象，优化界面、搜索结果和关键词竞价的能力，都取决于对当地语言和当地文化的良好理解。而阿里巴巴在地理和文化上接近其许多目标用户，这无疑为其在亚太地区的海外扩张提供了一项无形资产——甚至可以说是一项不可替代的资产。\n风险\n首先，如果中国政府认定在阿里巴巴进行的外国投资在VEI结构下是非法的，那么中国政府可能会没收阿里巴巴在外国的投资。但这种可能性很小。\n其次，恒大的形势和中国房地产行业的整体债务问题可能会给阿里巴巴带来风险。虽然阿里巴巴没有涉足房地产，但房地产的不确定性可能会引发很多涟漪效应，对阿里巴巴造成冲击。举一个极端的例子，考虑到房地产行业的规模及其债务，它可能会大幅放缓中国整个经济，甚至世界经济。\n结论\n阿里巴巴最近的发展代表了一个高度不确定性、低风险投资机会的教科书式范例。如果你是一个阿里巴巴的长期甚至中期投资者，应该不必过分担心阿里巴巴9月份季度财报的延迟发布。当前的风险状况是如此不对称，以至于其压缩的估值可以吸收负面的巨大收益惊喜，但将从任何正面惊喜中获得巨大收益。更具体地说:\n(1)即使该股永久性地损失了其核心收益的一半，其售价仍仅为营运现金流的18倍左右，考虑到其质量和增长潜力，仍不失为一笔不错的投资。\n(2)从长远来看，无论阿里巴巴9月份的业绩如何，其业务的增长都是不可阻挡的。全球电子商务趋势才刚刚起步，大量的增长机会尚未到来。剩余的机会将在亚太地区，其规模最快将在2023年超过西方国家。由于其规模和覆盖范围、政府支持以及地理和文化上的接近，阿里巴巴最有可能从中受益。\n(3)最后，政治和监管的发展对对阿里巴巴来说实际上是积极的，而不是消极的，因为它使阿里巴巴的发展更加清晰。例如，我们认为共同富裕基金的贡献对阿里巴巴来说是一个积极的发展，对阿里巴巴的前进来说是一个非常合理和理性的方式。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":619810223,"gmtCreate":1649170121471,"gmtModify":1649170121471,"author":{"id":"3560209665659151","authorId":"3560209665659151","name":"拿着青春陪你赌","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09432734e68f71c0687b3996a46af5eb","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"我来自2022，三月份大家会见识到70块的阿里巴巴[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"我来自2022，三月份大家会见识到70块的阿里巴巴[开心]&nbsp;","text":"我来自2022，三月份大家会见识到70块的阿里巴巴[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/619810223","repostId":1129470402,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":876004390,"gmtCreate":1637240879152,"gmtModify":1637240879152,"author":{"id":"4087345923163060","authorId":"4087345923163060","name":"wwww_wu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/825fa74e0108d6805b5c7883d6e8c056","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"阿里和万科一样，长多短空，双方都在转型的阵痛期！平安的转型已经迎来曙光，继续等待","listText":"阿里和万科一样，长多短空，双方都在转型的阵痛期！平安的转型已经迎来曙光，继续等待","text":"阿里和万科一样，长多短空，双方都在转型的阵痛期！平安的转型已经迎来曙光，继续等待","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876004390","repostId":1129470402,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6632973,"gmtCreate":1637254848627,"gmtModify":1637254848627,"authorId":3566874117693492,"author":{"id":3566874117693492,"authorId":3566874117693492,"name":"metastone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e983abdba0c1f0471948477930e51f6f","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"obj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老虎这个软件也是可以。","listText":"写多两句，就发不出去了，哎。 老虎这个软件也是可以。","text":"写多两句，就发不出去了，哎。 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