We Are Entering The Most Aggressive Global Hiking Cycle In A Decade_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

We Are Entering The Most Aggressive Global Hiking Cycle In A Decade

zerohedge2021-09-29

Maybe the market has been too hypnotized by the promise of cheap free money flowing forever, or maybe it remembers how the Fed stepped in last March to ensure that nobody lost any money and thus ...

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But all that may soon change, because as Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid calculates in terms of global central bank hikes exceeding cuts, we are now at the highest differential for a decade on a rolling 12-month basis.</p><p><blockquote>也许市场太被廉价自由资金永远流动的承诺所催眠，或者也许它记得美联储去年三月如何介入以确保没有人损失任何钱，因此这次没有人想卖出，或者也许它只是太习惯于逢低买入，以至于美联储缩减规模的消息实际上会推高股市。但这一切可能很快就会改变，因为正如德意志银行的吉姆·里德（Jim Reid）根据全球央行加息超过降息的计算，按滚动12个月计算，我们现在处于十年来的最高差异。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,<i>we are now entering the most aggressively global hiking cycle in a decade.</i></p><p><blockquote>换句话说，<i>我们现在正进入十年来最激进的全球徒步旅行周期。</i></blockquote></p><p> Some points on the data:</p><p><blockquote>数据的一些要点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The last 12 months have actually seen a historically low number of central bank rate moves in either direction. Never have global central banks been so inactive on that score. This is now starting to pick up though.</li>  <li>Since May 2012, global central banks have only seen the rolling 12m hike totals exceed cuts on 10% of occasions. We have just entered such a net hiking zone.</li>  <li>Central bank cuts have overwhelming exceeded hikes over the last couple of decades.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2760bc2328e86bf9439b7c268c2bd94\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>过去12个月，央行利率双向变动的数量实际上处于历史最低水平。全球央行从未在这一点上如此不积极。不过，这种情况现在开始好转。</li><li>自2012年5月以来，全球央行1200万次的滚动加息总数只有10%超过降息。我们刚刚进入了这样一个净徒步区。</li><li>过去几十年来，央行的降息幅度远远超过了加息幅度。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> So its quite clear that a global hiking cycle had already started before the recent mini energy crisis. Will this renewed spike in energy costs mean central banks accelerate this (e.g. BoE guidance last week) or will it hit demand enough that it actually slows them down as stocks slide?</p><p><blockquote>因此，很明显，在最近的小型能源危机之前，全球徒步旅行周期就已经开始了。能源成本的再次飙升是否意味着央行会加速这一进程（例如英国央行上周的指导），或者它会对需求造成足够的打击，以至于随着股市下滑，需求实际上会放缓？</blockquote></p><p> The answer is unclear but as Reid concludes, \"this is an incredibly delicate and difficult period for central banks.\"&nbsp; As a minimum, Reid notes, rates markets are finally waking up to the asymmetric risk/reward that had developed over the summer months given all the global inflation in the system and the evidence that we were in a global hiking cycle. One wonders when stocks will do the same.</p><p><blockquote>答案尚不清楚，但正如里德总结的那样，“对于央行来说，这是一个极其微妙和困难的时期。”里德指出，至少，鉴于系统中的全球通胀以及我们正处于全球加息周期的证据，利率市场终于意识到夏季几个月出现的不对称风险/回报。人们想知道股票什么时候也会这样做。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>We Are Entering The Most Aggressive Global Hiking Cycle In A Decade<blockquote>我们正在进入十年来最激进的全球徒步旅行周期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWe Are Entering The Most Aggressive Global Hiking Cycle In A Decade<blockquote>我们正在进入十年来最激进的全球徒步旅行周期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-29 08:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Maybe the market has been too hypnotized by the promise of cheap free money flowing forever, or maybe it remembers how the Fed stepped in last March to ensure that nobody lost any money and thus nobody wants to sell this time, or maybe it is just too used to buying every single dip so that news of the Fed's taper actually sent stocks higher. But all that may soon change, because as Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid calculates in terms of global central bank hikes exceeding cuts, we are now at the highest differential for a decade on a rolling 12-month basis.</p><p><blockquote>也许市场太被廉价自由资金永远流动的承诺所催眠，或者也许它记得美联储去年三月如何介入以确保没有人损失任何钱，因此这次没有人想卖出，或者也许它只是太习惯于逢低买入，以至于美联储缩减规模的消息实际上会推高股市。但这一切可能很快就会改变，因为正如德意志银行的吉姆·里德（Jim Reid）根据全球央行加息超过降息的计算，按滚动12个月计算，我们现在处于十年来的最高差异。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,<i>we are now entering the most aggressively global hiking cycle in a decade.</i></p><p><blockquote>换句话说，<i>我们现在正进入十年来最激进的全球徒步旅行周期。</i></blockquote></p><p> Some points on the data:</p><p><blockquote>数据的一些要点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The last 12 months have actually seen a historically low number of central bank rate moves in either direction. Never have global central banks been so inactive on that score. This is now starting to pick up though.</li>  <li>Since May 2012, global central banks have only seen the rolling 12m hike totals exceed cuts on 10% of occasions. We have just entered such a net hiking zone.</li>  <li>Central bank cuts have overwhelming exceeded hikes over the last couple of decades.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2760bc2328e86bf9439b7c268c2bd94\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>过去12个月，央行利率双向变动的数量实际上处于历史最低水平。全球央行从未在这一点上如此不积极。不过，这种情况现在开始好转。</li><li>自2012年5月以来，全球央行1200万次的滚动加息总数只有10%超过降息。我们刚刚进入了这样一个净徒步区。</li><li>过去几十年来，央行的降息幅度远远超过了加息幅度。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> So its quite clear that a global hiking cycle had already started before the recent mini energy crisis. Will this renewed spike in energy costs mean central banks accelerate this (e.g. BoE guidance last week) or will it hit demand enough that it actually slows them down as stocks slide?</p><p><blockquote>因此，很明显，在最近的小型能源危机之前，全球徒步旅行周期就已经开始了。能源成本的再次飙升是否意味着央行会加速这一进程（例如英国央行上周的指导），或者它会对需求造成足够的打击，以至于随着股市下滑，需求实际上会放缓？</blockquote></p><p> The answer is unclear but as Reid concludes, \"this is an incredibly delicate and difficult period for central banks.\"&nbsp; As a minimum, Reid notes, rates markets are finally waking up to the asymmetric risk/reward that had developed over the summer months given all the global inflation in the system and the evidence that we were in a global hiking cycle. One wonders when stocks will do the same.</p><p><blockquote>答案尚不清楚，但正如里德总结的那样，“对于央行来说，这是一个极其微妙和困难的时期。”里德指出，至少，鉴于系统中的全球通胀以及我们正处于全球加息周期的证据，利率市场终于意识到夏季几个月出现的不对称风险/回报。人们想知道股票什么时候也会这样做。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/we-are-entering-most-aggressive-global-hiking-cycle-decade\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/we-are-entering-most-aggressive-global-hiking-cycle-decade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129273771","content_text":"Maybe the market has been too hypnotized by the promise of cheap free money flowing forever, or maybe it remembers how the Fed stepped in last March to ensure that nobody lost any money and thus nobody wants to sell this time, or maybe it is just too used to buying every single dip so that news of the Fed's taper actually sent stocks higher. But all that may soon change, because as Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid calculates in terms of global central bank hikes exceeding cuts, we are now at the highest differential for a decade on a rolling 12-month basis.\nIn other words,we are now entering the most aggressively global hiking cycle in a decade.\nSome points on the data:\n\nThe last 12 months have actually seen a historically low number of central bank rate moves in either direction. Never have global central banks been so inactive on that score. This is now starting to pick up though.\nSince May 2012, global central banks have only seen the rolling 12m hike totals exceed cuts on 10% of occasions. We have just entered such a net hiking zone.\nCentral bank cuts have overwhelming exceeded hikes over the last couple of decades.\n\n\nSo its quite clear that a global hiking cycle had already started before the recent mini energy crisis. Will this renewed spike in energy costs mean central banks accelerate this (e.g. BoE guidance last week) or will it hit demand enough that it actually slows them down as stocks slide?\nThe answer is unclear but as Reid concludes, \"this is an incredibly delicate and difficult period for central banks.\"  As a minimum, Reid notes, rates markets are finally waking up to the asymmetric risk/reward that had developed over the summer months given all the global inflation in the system and the evidence that we were in a global hiking cycle. One wonders when stocks will do the same.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":862681328,"gmtCreate":1632875536696,"gmtModify":1632875536696,"author":{"id":"4093867056999920","authorId":"4093867056999920","name":"_Shins","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/406fc97ed0d96fb058e5fe21cbcfd212","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4093867056999920","authorIdStr":"4093867056999920"},"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862681328","repostId":1129273771,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129273771","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632874854,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129273771?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-29 08:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"We Are Entering The Most Aggressive Global Hiking Cycle In A Decade<blockquote>我们正在进入十年来最激进的全球徒步旅行周期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129273771","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Maybe the market has been too hypnotized by the promise of cheap free money flowing forever, or mayb","content":"<p>Maybe the market has been too hypnotized by the promise of cheap free money flowing forever, or maybe it remembers how the Fed stepped in last March to ensure that nobody lost any money and thus nobody wants to sell this time, or maybe it is just too used to buying every single dip so that news of the Fed's taper actually sent stocks higher. But all that may soon change, because as Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid calculates in terms of global central bank hikes exceeding cuts, we are now at the highest differential for a decade on a rolling 12-month basis.</p><p><blockquote>也许市场太被廉价自由资金永远流动的承诺所催眠，或者也许它记得美联储去年三月如何介入以确保没有人损失任何钱，因此这次没有人想卖出，或者也许它只是太习惯于逢低买入，以至于美联储缩减规模的消息实际上会推高股市。但这一切可能很快就会改变，因为正如德意志银行的吉姆·里德（Jim Reid）根据全球央行加息超过降息的计算，按滚动12个月计算，我们现在处于十年来的最高差异。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,<i>we are now entering the most aggressively global hiking cycle in a decade.</i></p><p><blockquote>换句话说，<i>我们现在正进入十年来最激进的全球徒步旅行周期。</i></blockquote></p><p> Some points on the data:</p><p><blockquote>数据的一些要点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The last 12 months have actually seen a historically low number of central bank rate moves in either direction. Never have global central banks been so inactive on that score. This is now starting to pick up though.</li>  <li>Since May 2012, global central banks have only seen the rolling 12m hike totals exceed cuts on 10% of occasions. We have just entered such a net hiking zone.</li>  <li>Central bank cuts have overwhelming exceeded hikes over the last couple of decades.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2760bc2328e86bf9439b7c268c2bd94\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>过去12个月，央行利率双向变动的数量实际上处于历史最低水平。全球央行从未在这一点上如此不积极。不过，这种情况现在开始好转。</li><li>自2012年5月以来，全球央行1200万次的滚动加息总数只有10%超过降息。我们刚刚进入了这样一个净徒步区。</li><li>过去几十年来，央行的降息幅度远远超过了加息幅度。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> So its quite clear that a global hiking cycle had already started before the recent mini energy crisis. Will this renewed spike in energy costs mean central banks accelerate this (e.g. BoE guidance last week) or will it hit demand enough that it actually slows them down as stocks slide?</p><p><blockquote>因此，很明显，在最近的小型能源危机之前，全球徒步旅行周期就已经开始了。能源成本的再次飙升是否意味着央行会加速这一进程（例如英国央行上周的指导），或者它会对需求造成足够的打击，以至于随着股市下滑，需求实际上会放缓？</blockquote></p><p> The answer is unclear but as Reid concludes, \"this is an incredibly delicate and difficult period for central banks.\"&nbsp; As a minimum, Reid notes, rates markets are finally waking up to the asymmetric risk/reward that had developed over the summer months given all the global inflation in the system and the evidence that we were in a global hiking cycle. One wonders when stocks will do the same.</p><p><blockquote>答案尚不清楚，但正如里德总结的那样，“对于央行来说，这是一个极其微妙和困难的时期。”里德指出，至少，鉴于系统中的全球通胀以及我们正处于全球加息周期的证据，利率市场终于意识到夏季几个月出现的不对称风险/回报。人们想知道股票什么时候也会这样做。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>We Are Entering The Most Aggressive Global Hiking Cycle In A Decade<blockquote>我们正在进入十年来最激进的全球徒步旅行周期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWe Are Entering The Most Aggressive Global Hiking Cycle In A Decade<blockquote>我们正在进入十年来最激进的全球徒步旅行周期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-29 08:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Maybe the market has been too hypnotized by the promise of cheap free money flowing forever, or maybe it remembers how the Fed stepped in last March to ensure that nobody lost any money and thus nobody wants to sell this time, or maybe it is just too used to buying every single dip so that news of the Fed's taper actually sent stocks higher. But all that may soon change, because as Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid calculates in terms of global central bank hikes exceeding cuts, we are now at the highest differential for a decade on a rolling 12-month basis.</p><p><blockquote>也许市场太被廉价自由资金永远流动的承诺所催眠，或者也许它记得美联储去年三月如何介入以确保没有人损失任何钱，因此这次没有人想卖出，或者也许它只是太习惯于逢低买入，以至于美联储缩减规模的消息实际上会推高股市。但这一切可能很快就会改变，因为正如德意志银行的吉姆·里德（Jim Reid）根据全球央行加息超过降息的计算，按滚动12个月计算，我们现在处于十年来的最高差异。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,<i>we are now entering the most aggressively global hiking cycle in a decade.</i></p><p><blockquote>换句话说，<i>我们现在正进入十年来最激进的全球徒步旅行周期。</i></blockquote></p><p> Some points on the data:</p><p><blockquote>数据的一些要点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The last 12 months have actually seen a historically low number of central bank rate moves in either direction. Never have global central banks been so inactive on that score. This is now starting to pick up though.</li>  <li>Since May 2012, global central banks have only seen the rolling 12m hike totals exceed cuts on 10% of occasions. We have just entered such a net hiking zone.</li>  <li>Central bank cuts have overwhelming exceeded hikes over the last couple of decades.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2760bc2328e86bf9439b7c268c2bd94\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>过去12个月，央行利率双向变动的数量实际上处于历史最低水平。全球央行从未在这一点上如此不积极。不过，这种情况现在开始好转。</li><li>自2012年5月以来，全球央行1200万次的滚动加息总数只有10%超过降息。我们刚刚进入了这样一个净徒步区。</li><li>过去几十年来，央行的降息幅度远远超过了加息幅度。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> So its quite clear that a global hiking cycle had already started before the recent mini energy crisis. Will this renewed spike in energy costs mean central banks accelerate this (e.g. BoE guidance last week) or will it hit demand enough that it actually slows them down as stocks slide?</p><p><blockquote>因此，很明显，在最近的小型能源危机之前，全球徒步旅行周期就已经开始了。能源成本的再次飙升是否意味着央行会加速这一进程（例如英国央行上周的指导），或者它会对需求造成足够的打击，以至于随着股市下滑，需求实际上会放缓？</blockquote></p><p> The answer is unclear but as Reid concludes, \"this is an incredibly delicate and difficult period for central banks.\"&nbsp; As a minimum, Reid notes, rates markets are finally waking up to the asymmetric risk/reward that had developed over the summer months given all the global inflation in the system and the evidence that we were in a global hiking cycle. One wonders when stocks will do the same.</p><p><blockquote>答案尚不清楚，但正如里德总结的那样，“对于央行来说，这是一个极其微妙和困难的时期。”里德指出，至少，鉴于系统中的全球通胀以及我们正处于全球加息周期的证据，利率市场终于意识到夏季几个月出现的不对称风险/回报。人们想知道股票什么时候也会这样做。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/we-are-entering-most-aggressive-global-hiking-cycle-decade\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/we-are-entering-most-aggressive-global-hiking-cycle-decade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129273771","content_text":"Maybe the market has been too hypnotized by the promise of cheap free money flowing forever, or maybe it remembers how the Fed stepped in last March to ensure that nobody lost any money and thus nobody wants to sell this time, or maybe it is just too used to buying every single dip so that news of the Fed's taper actually sent stocks higher. But all that may soon change, because as Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid calculates in terms of global central bank hikes exceeding cuts, we are now at the highest differential for a decade on a rolling 12-month basis.\nIn other words,we are now entering the most aggressively global hiking cycle in a decade.\nSome points on the data:\n\nThe last 12 months have actually seen a historically low number of central bank rate moves in either direction. Never have global central banks been so inactive on that score. This is now starting to pick up though.\nSince May 2012, global central banks have only seen the rolling 12m hike totals exceed cuts on 10% of occasions. We have just entered such a net hiking zone.\nCentral bank cuts have overwhelming exceeded hikes over the last couple of decades.\n\n\nSo its quite clear that a global hiking cycle had already started before the recent mini energy crisis. Will this renewed spike in energy costs mean central banks accelerate this (e.g. BoE guidance last week) or will it hit demand enough that it actually slows them down as stocks slide?\nThe answer is unclear but as Reid concludes, \"this is an incredibly delicate and difficult period for central banks.\"  As a minimum, Reid notes, rates markets are finally waking up to the asymmetric risk/reward that had developed over the summer months given all the global inflation in the system and the evidence that we were in a global hiking cycle. One wonders when stocks will do the same.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6031502,"gmtCreate":1632875545334,"gmtModify":1634782969395,"authorId":4093867056999920,"author":{"id":4093867056999920,"idStr":"4093867056999920","authorId":4093867056999920,"name":"_Shins","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/406fc97ed0d96fb058e5fe21cbcfd212","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":862681328,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":862612393,"gmtCreate":1632875185080,"gmtModify":1632875185222,"author":{"id":"4087870165979230","authorId":"4087870165979230","name":"crystaly","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4087870165979230","authorIdStr":"4087870165979230"},"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862612393","repostId":1129273771,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129273771","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632874854,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129273771?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-29 08:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"We Are Entering The Most Aggressive Global Hiking Cycle In A Decade<blockquote>我们正在进入十年来最激进的全球徒步旅行周期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129273771","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Maybe the market has been too hypnotized by the promise of cheap free money flowing forever, or mayb","content":"<p>Maybe the market has been too hypnotized by the promise of cheap free money flowing forever, or maybe it remembers how the Fed stepped in last March to ensure that nobody lost any money and thus nobody wants to sell this time, or maybe it is just too used to buying every single dip so that news of the Fed's taper actually sent stocks higher. But all that may soon change, because as Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid calculates in terms of global central bank hikes exceeding cuts, we are now at the highest differential for a decade on a rolling 12-month basis.</p><p><blockquote>也许市场太被廉价自由资金永远流动的承诺所催眠，或者也许它记得美联储去年三月如何介入以确保没有人损失任何钱，因此这次没有人想卖出，或者也许它只是太习惯于逢低买入，以至于美联储缩减规模的消息实际上会推高股市。但这一切可能很快就会改变，因为正如德意志银行的吉姆·里德（Jim Reid）根据全球央行加息超过降息的计算，按滚动12个月计算，我们现在处于十年来的最高差异。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,<i>we are now entering the most aggressively global hiking cycle in a decade.</i></p><p><blockquote>换句话说，<i>我们现在正进入十年来最激进的全球徒步旅行周期。</i></blockquote></p><p> Some points on the data:</p><p><blockquote>数据的一些要点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The last 12 months have actually seen a historically low number of central bank rate moves in either direction. Never have global central banks been so inactive on that score. This is now starting to pick up though.</li>  <li>Since May 2012, global central banks have only seen the rolling 12m hike totals exceed cuts on 10% of occasions. We have just entered such a net hiking zone.</li>  <li>Central bank cuts have overwhelming exceeded hikes over the last couple of decades.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2760bc2328e86bf9439b7c268c2bd94\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>过去12个月，央行利率双向变动的数量实际上处于历史最低水平。全球央行从未在这一点上如此不积极。不过，这种情况现在开始好转。</li><li>自2012年5月以来，全球央行1200万次的滚动加息总数只有10%超过降息。我们刚刚进入了这样一个净徒步区。</li><li>过去几十年来，央行的降息幅度远远超过了加息幅度。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> So its quite clear that a global hiking cycle had already started before the recent mini energy crisis. Will this renewed spike in energy costs mean central banks accelerate this (e.g. BoE guidance last week) or will it hit demand enough that it actually slows them down as stocks slide?</p><p><blockquote>因此，很明显，在最近的小型能源危机之前，全球徒步旅行周期就已经开始了。能源成本的再次飙升是否意味着央行会加速这一进程（例如英国央行上周的指导），或者它会对需求造成足够的打击，以至于随着股市下滑，需求实际上会放缓？</blockquote></p><p> The answer is unclear but as Reid concludes, \"this is an incredibly delicate and difficult period for central banks.\"&nbsp; As a minimum, Reid notes, rates markets are finally waking up to the asymmetric risk/reward that had developed over the summer months given all the global inflation in the system and the evidence that we were in a global hiking cycle. One wonders when stocks will do the same.</p><p><blockquote>答案尚不清楚，但正如里德总结的那样，“对于央行来说，这是一个极其微妙和困难的时期。”里德指出，至少，鉴于系统中的全球通胀以及我们正处于全球加息周期的证据，利率市场终于意识到夏季几个月出现的不对称风险/回报。人们想知道股票什么时候也会这样做。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>We Are Entering The Most Aggressive Global Hiking Cycle In A Decade<blockquote>我们正在进入十年来最激进的全球徒步旅行周期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWe Are Entering The Most Aggressive Global Hiking Cycle In A Decade<blockquote>我们正在进入十年来最激进的全球徒步旅行周期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-29 08:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Maybe the market has been too hypnotized by the promise of cheap free money flowing forever, or maybe it remembers how the Fed stepped in last March to ensure that nobody lost any money and thus nobody wants to sell this time, or maybe it is just too used to buying every single dip so that news of the Fed's taper actually sent stocks higher. But all that may soon change, because as Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid calculates in terms of global central bank hikes exceeding cuts, we are now at the highest differential for a decade on a rolling 12-month basis.</p><p><blockquote>也许市场太被廉价自由资金永远流动的承诺所催眠，或者也许它记得美联储去年三月如何介入以确保没有人损失任何钱，因此这次没有人想卖出，或者也许它只是太习惯于逢低买入，以至于美联储缩减规模的消息实际上会推高股市。但这一切可能很快就会改变，因为正如德意志银行的吉姆·里德（Jim Reid）根据全球央行加息超过降息的计算，按滚动12个月计算，我们现在处于十年来的最高差异。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,<i>we are now entering the most aggressively global hiking cycle in a decade.</i></p><p><blockquote>换句话说，<i>我们现在正进入十年来最激进的全球徒步旅行周期。</i></blockquote></p><p> Some points on the data:</p><p><blockquote>数据的一些要点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The last 12 months have actually seen a historically low number of central bank rate moves in either direction. Never have global central banks been so inactive on that score. This is now starting to pick up though.</li>  <li>Since May 2012, global central banks have only seen the rolling 12m hike totals exceed cuts on 10% of occasions. We have just entered such a net hiking zone.</li>  <li>Central bank cuts have overwhelming exceeded hikes over the last couple of decades.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2760bc2328e86bf9439b7c268c2bd94\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>过去12个月，央行利率双向变动的数量实际上处于历史最低水平。全球央行从未在这一点上如此不积极。不过，这种情况现在开始好转。</li><li>自2012年5月以来，全球央行1200万次的滚动加息总数只有10%超过降息。我们刚刚进入了这样一个净徒步区。</li><li>过去几十年来，央行的降息幅度远远超过了加息幅度。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> So its quite clear that a global hiking cycle had already started before the recent mini energy crisis. Will this renewed spike in energy costs mean central banks accelerate this (e.g. BoE guidance last week) or will it hit demand enough that it actually slows them down as stocks slide?</p><p><blockquote>因此，很明显，在最近的小型能源危机之前，全球徒步旅行周期就已经开始了。能源成本的再次飙升是否意味着央行会加速这一进程（例如英国央行上周的指导），或者它会对需求造成足够的打击，以至于随着股市下滑，需求实际上会放缓？</blockquote></p><p> The answer is unclear but as Reid concludes, \"this is an incredibly delicate and difficult period for central banks.\"&nbsp; As a minimum, Reid notes, rates markets are finally waking up to the asymmetric risk/reward that had developed over the summer months given all the global inflation in the system and the evidence that we were in a global hiking cycle. One wonders when stocks will do the same.</p><p><blockquote>答案尚不清楚，但正如里德总结的那样，“对于央行来说，这是一个极其微妙和困难的时期。”里德指出，至少，鉴于系统中的全球通胀以及我们正处于全球加息周期的证据，利率市场终于意识到夏季几个月出现的不对称风险/回报。人们想知道股票什么时候也会这样做。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/we-are-entering-most-aggressive-global-hiking-cycle-decade\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/we-are-entering-most-aggressive-global-hiking-cycle-decade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129273771","content_text":"Maybe the market has been too hypnotized by the promise of cheap free money flowing forever, or maybe it remembers how the Fed stepped in last March to ensure that nobody lost any money and thus nobody wants to sell this time, or maybe it is just too used to buying every single dip so that news of the Fed's taper actually sent stocks higher. But all that may soon change, because as Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid calculates in terms of global central bank hikes exceeding cuts, we are now at the highest differential for a decade on a rolling 12-month basis.\nIn other words,we are now entering the most aggressively global hiking cycle in a decade.\nSome points on the data:\n\nThe last 12 months have actually seen a historically low number of central bank rate moves in either direction. Never have global central banks been so inactive on that score. This is now starting to pick up though.\nSince May 2012, global central banks have only seen the rolling 12m hike totals exceed cuts on 10% of occasions. We have just entered such a net hiking zone.\nCentral bank cuts have overwhelming exceeded hikes over the last couple of decades.\n\n\nSo its quite clear that a global hiking cycle had already started before the recent mini energy crisis. Will this renewed spike in energy costs mean central banks accelerate this (e.g. BoE guidance last week) or will it hit demand enough that it actually slows them down as stocks slide?\nThe answer is unclear but as Reid concludes, \"this is an incredibly delicate and difficult period for central banks.\"  As a minimum, Reid notes, rates markets are finally waking up to the asymmetric risk/reward that had developed over the summer months given all the global inflation in the system and the evidence that we were in a global hiking cycle. One wonders when stocks will do the same.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":862616383,"gmtCreate":1632875125268,"gmtModify":1632875125423,"author":{"id":"3582026261569572","authorId":"3582026261569572","name":"NicNg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71eb77fb27db665fb403edf640e59617","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582026261569572","authorIdStr":"3582026261569572"},"htmlText":"Please like and comment thanks!:)","listText":"Please like and comment thanks!:)","text":"Please like and comment thanks!:)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862616383","repostId":1129273771,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129273771","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632874854,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129273771?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-29 08:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"We Are Entering The Most Aggressive Global Hiking Cycle In A Decade<blockquote>我们正在进入十年来最激进的全球徒步旅行周期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129273771","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Maybe the market has been too hypnotized by the promise of cheap free money flowing forever, or mayb","content":"<p>Maybe the market has been too hypnotized by the promise of cheap free money flowing forever, or maybe it remembers how the Fed stepped in last March to ensure that nobody lost any money and thus nobody wants to sell this time, or maybe it is just too used to buying every single dip so that news of the Fed's taper actually sent stocks higher. But all that may soon change, because as Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid calculates in terms of global central bank hikes exceeding cuts, we are now at the highest differential for a decade on a rolling 12-month basis.</p><p><blockquote>也许市场太被廉价自由资金永远流动的承诺所催眠，或者也许它记得美联储去年三月如何介入以确保没有人损失任何钱，因此这次没有人想卖出，或者也许它只是太习惯于逢低买入，以至于美联储缩减规模的消息实际上会推高股市。但这一切可能很快就会改变，因为正如德意志银行的吉姆·里德（Jim Reid）根据全球央行加息超过降息的计算，按滚动12个月计算，我们现在处于十年来的最高差异。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,<i>we are now entering the most aggressively global hiking cycle in a decade.</i></p><p><blockquote>换句话说，<i>我们现在正进入十年来最激进的全球徒步旅行周期。</i></blockquote></p><p> Some points on the data:</p><p><blockquote>数据的一些要点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The last 12 months have actually seen a historically low number of central bank rate moves in either direction. Never have global central banks been so inactive on that score. This is now starting to pick up though.</li>  <li>Since May 2012, global central banks have only seen the rolling 12m hike totals exceed cuts on 10% of occasions. We have just entered such a net hiking zone.</li>  <li>Central bank cuts have overwhelming exceeded hikes over the last couple of decades.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2760bc2328e86bf9439b7c268c2bd94\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>过去12个月，央行利率双向变动的数量实际上处于历史最低水平。全球央行从未在这一点上如此不积极。不过，这种情况现在开始好转。</li><li>自2012年5月以来，全球央行1200万次的滚动加息总数只有10%超过降息。我们刚刚进入了这样一个净徒步区。</li><li>过去几十年来，央行的降息幅度远远超过了加息幅度。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> So its quite clear that a global hiking cycle had already started before the recent mini energy crisis. Will this renewed spike in energy costs mean central banks accelerate this (e.g. BoE guidance last week) or will it hit demand enough that it actually slows them down as stocks slide?</p><p><blockquote>因此，很明显，在最近的小型能源危机之前，全球徒步旅行周期就已经开始了。能源成本的再次飙升是否意味着央行会加速这一进程（例如英国央行上周的指导），或者它会对需求造成足够的打击，以至于随着股市下滑，需求实际上会放缓？</blockquote></p><p> The answer is unclear but as Reid concludes, \"this is an incredibly delicate and difficult period for central banks.\"&nbsp; As a minimum, Reid notes, rates markets are finally waking up to the asymmetric risk/reward that had developed over the summer months given all the global inflation in the system and the evidence that we were in a global hiking cycle. One wonders when stocks will do the same.</p><p><blockquote>答案尚不清楚，但正如里德总结的那样，“对于央行来说，这是一个极其微妙和困难的时期。”里德指出，至少，鉴于系统中的全球通胀以及我们正处于全球加息周期的证据，利率市场终于意识到夏季几个月出现的不对称风险/回报。人们想知道股票什么时候也会这样做。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>We Are Entering The Most Aggressive Global Hiking Cycle In A Decade<blockquote>我们正在进入十年来最激进的全球徒步旅行周期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWe Are Entering The Most Aggressive Global Hiking Cycle In A Decade<blockquote>我们正在进入十年来最激进的全球徒步旅行周期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-29 08:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Maybe the market has been too hypnotized by the promise of cheap free money flowing forever, or maybe it remembers how the Fed stepped in last March to ensure that nobody lost any money and thus nobody wants to sell this time, or maybe it is just too used to buying every single dip so that news of the Fed's taper actually sent stocks higher. But all that may soon change, because as Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid calculates in terms of global central bank hikes exceeding cuts, we are now at the highest differential for a decade on a rolling 12-month basis.</p><p><blockquote>也许市场太被廉价自由资金永远流动的承诺所催眠，或者也许它记得美联储去年三月如何介入以确保没有人损失任何钱，因此这次没有人想卖出，或者也许它只是太习惯于逢低买入，以至于美联储缩减规模的消息实际上会推高股市。但这一切可能很快就会改变，因为正如德意志银行的吉姆·里德（Jim Reid）根据全球央行加息超过降息的计算，按滚动12个月计算，我们现在处于十年来的最高差异。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,<i>we are now entering the most aggressively global hiking cycle in a decade.</i></p><p><blockquote>换句话说，<i>我们现在正进入十年来最激进的全球徒步旅行周期。</i></blockquote></p><p> Some points on the data:</p><p><blockquote>数据的一些要点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The last 12 months have actually seen a historically low number of central bank rate moves in either direction. Never have global central banks been so inactive on that score. This is now starting to pick up though.</li>  <li>Since May 2012, global central banks have only seen the rolling 12m hike totals exceed cuts on 10% of occasions. We have just entered such a net hiking zone.</li>  <li>Central bank cuts have overwhelming exceeded hikes over the last couple of decades.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2760bc2328e86bf9439b7c268c2bd94\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>过去12个月，央行利率双向变动的数量实际上处于历史最低水平。全球央行从未在这一点上如此不积极。不过，这种情况现在开始好转。</li><li>自2012年5月以来，全球央行1200万次的滚动加息总数只有10%超过降息。我们刚刚进入了这样一个净徒步区。</li><li>过去几十年来，央行的降息幅度远远超过了加息幅度。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> So its quite clear that a global hiking cycle had already started before the recent mini energy crisis. Will this renewed spike in energy costs mean central banks accelerate this (e.g. BoE guidance last week) or will it hit demand enough that it actually slows them down as stocks slide?</p><p><blockquote>因此，很明显，在最近的小型能源危机之前，全球徒步旅行周期就已经开始了。能源成本的再次飙升是否意味着央行会加速这一进程（例如英国央行上周的指导），或者它会对需求造成足够的打击，以至于随着股市下滑，需求实际上会放缓？</blockquote></p><p> The answer is unclear but as Reid concludes, \"this is an incredibly delicate and difficult period for central banks.\"&nbsp; As a minimum, Reid notes, rates markets are finally waking up to the asymmetric risk/reward that had developed over the summer months given all the global inflation in the system and the evidence that we were in a global hiking cycle. One wonders when stocks will do the same.</p><p><blockquote>答案尚不清楚，但正如里德总结的那样，“对于央行来说，这是一个极其微妙和困难的时期。”里德指出，至少，鉴于系统中的全球通胀以及我们正处于全球加息周期的证据，利率市场终于意识到夏季几个月出现的不对称风险/回报。人们想知道股票什么时候也会这样做。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/we-are-entering-most-aggressive-global-hiking-cycle-decade\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/we-are-entering-most-aggressive-global-hiking-cycle-decade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129273771","content_text":"Maybe the market has been too hypnotized by the promise of cheap free money flowing forever, or maybe it remembers how the Fed stepped in last March to ensure that nobody lost any money and thus nobody wants to sell this time, or maybe it is just too used to buying every single dip so that news of the Fed's taper actually sent stocks higher. But all that may soon change, because as Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid calculates in terms of global central bank hikes exceeding cuts, we are now at the highest differential for a decade on a rolling 12-month basis.\nIn other words,we are now entering the most aggressively global hiking cycle in a decade.\nSome points on the data:\n\nThe last 12 months have actually seen a historically low number of central bank rate moves in either direction. Never have global central banks been so inactive on that score. This is now starting to pick up though.\nSince May 2012, global central banks have only seen the rolling 12m hike totals exceed cuts on 10% of occasions. We have just entered such a net hiking zone.\nCentral bank cuts have overwhelming exceeded hikes over the last couple of decades.\n\n\nSo its quite clear that a global hiking cycle had already started before the recent mini energy crisis. Will this renewed spike in energy costs mean central banks accelerate this (e.g. BoE guidance last week) or will it hit demand enough that it actually slows them down as stocks slide?\nThe answer is unclear but as Reid concludes, \"this is an incredibly delicate and difficult period for central banks.\"  As a minimum, Reid notes, rates markets are finally waking up to the asymmetric risk/reward that had developed over the summer months given all the global inflation in the system and the evidence that we were in a global hiking cycle. One wonders when stocks will do the same.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6031362,"gmtCreate":1632875139665,"gmtModify":1634782982562,"authorId":3569026977281370,"author":{"id":3569026977281370,"idStr":"3569026977281370","authorId":3569026977281370,"name":"WVY","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/893141a3d0b32236649f01b3f271d83a","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":862616383,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"K","text":"K","html":"K"},{"id":6031374,"gmtCreate":1632875168338,"gmtModify":1634782981361,"authorId":4087870165979230,"author":{"id":4087870165979230,"idStr":"4087870165979230","authorId":4087870165979230,"name":"crystaly","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":862616383,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>done</u>","text":"<u>done</u>","html":"<u>done</u>"},{"id":6031381,"gmtCreate":1632875189003,"gmtModify":1634782980599,"authorId":3586261606500608,"author":{"id":3586261606500608,"idStr":"3586261606500608","authorId":3586261606500608,"name":"KHW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":862616383,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"k","text":"k","html":"k"},{"id":6031940,"gmtCreate":1632876901405,"gmtModify":1634782927107,"authorId":4087190594214920,"author":{"id":4087190594214920,"idStr":"4087190594214920","authorId":4087190594214920,"name":"PBL170","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ef4f93ba3e261ac276aef28c4467365","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":862616383,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"},{"id":6043785,"gmtCreate":1632962748905,"gmtModify":1634726127487,"authorId":3582026261569572,"author":{"id":3582026261569572,"idStr":"3582026261569572","authorId":3582026261569572,"name":"NicNg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71eb77fb27db665fb403edf640e59617","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":862616383,"type":1,"supId":6031940,"prevId":0,"content":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","html":"Thanks"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":862611364,"gmtCreate":1632875026806,"gmtModify":1632875026910,"author":{"id":"3581927528519582","authorId":"3581927528519582","name":"Leckyyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/422496a4ca38a40477f6381eba567268","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581927528519582","authorIdStr":"3581927528519582"},"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862611364","repostId":1129273771,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129273771","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632874854,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129273771?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-29 08:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"We Are Entering The Most Aggressive Global Hiking Cycle In A Decade<blockquote>我们正在进入十年来最激进的全球徒步旅行周期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129273771","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Maybe the market has been too hypnotized by the promise of cheap free money flowing forever, or mayb","content":"<p>Maybe the market has been too hypnotized by the promise of cheap free money flowing forever, or maybe it remembers how the Fed stepped in last March to ensure that nobody lost any money and thus nobody wants to sell this time, or maybe it is just too used to buying every single dip so that news of the Fed's taper actually sent stocks higher. But all that may soon change, because as Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid calculates in terms of global central bank hikes exceeding cuts, we are now at the highest differential for a decade on a rolling 12-month basis.</p><p><blockquote>也许市场太被廉价自由资金永远流动的承诺所催眠，或者也许它记得美联储去年三月如何介入以确保没有人损失任何钱，因此这次没有人想卖出，或者也许它只是太习惯于逢低买入，以至于美联储缩减规模的消息实际上会推高股市。但这一切可能很快就会改变，因为正如德意志银行的吉姆·里德（Jim Reid）根据全球央行加息超过降息的计算，按滚动12个月计算，我们现在处于十年来的最高差异。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,<i>we are now entering the most aggressively global hiking cycle in a decade.</i></p><p><blockquote>换句话说，<i>我们现在正进入十年来最激进的全球徒步旅行周期。</i></blockquote></p><p> Some points on the data:</p><p><blockquote>数据的一些要点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The last 12 months have actually seen a historically low number of central bank rate moves in either direction. Never have global central banks been so inactive on that score. This is now starting to pick up though.</li>  <li>Since May 2012, global central banks have only seen the rolling 12m hike totals exceed cuts on 10% of occasions. We have just entered such a net hiking zone.</li>  <li>Central bank cuts have overwhelming exceeded hikes over the last couple of decades.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2760bc2328e86bf9439b7c268c2bd94\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>过去12个月，央行利率双向变动的数量实际上处于历史最低水平。全球央行从未在这一点上如此不积极。不过，这种情况现在开始好转。</li><li>自2012年5月以来，全球央行1200万次的滚动加息总数只有10%超过降息。我们刚刚进入了这样一个净徒步区。</li><li>过去几十年来，央行的降息幅度远远超过了加息幅度。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> So its quite clear that a global hiking cycle had already started before the recent mini energy crisis. Will this renewed spike in energy costs mean central banks accelerate this (e.g. BoE guidance last week) or will it hit demand enough that it actually slows them down as stocks slide?</p><p><blockquote>因此，很明显，在最近的小型能源危机之前，全球徒步旅行周期就已经开始了。能源成本的再次飙升是否意味着央行会加速这一进程（例如英国央行上周的指导），或者它会对需求造成足够的打击，以至于随着股市下滑，需求实际上会放缓？</blockquote></p><p> The answer is unclear but as Reid concludes, \"this is an incredibly delicate and difficult period for central banks.\"&nbsp; As a minimum, Reid notes, rates markets are finally waking up to the asymmetric risk/reward that had developed over the summer months given all the global inflation in the system and the evidence that we were in a global hiking cycle. One wonders when stocks will do the same.</p><p><blockquote>答案尚不清楚，但正如里德总结的那样，“对于央行来说，这是一个极其微妙和困难的时期。”里德指出，至少，鉴于系统中的全球通胀以及我们正处于全球加息周期的证据，利率市场终于意识到夏季几个月出现的不对称风险/回报。人们想知道股票什么时候也会这样做。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>We Are Entering The Most Aggressive Global Hiking Cycle In A Decade<blockquote>我们正在进入十年来最激进的全球徒步旅行周期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWe Are Entering The Most Aggressive Global Hiking Cycle In A Decade<blockquote>我们正在进入十年来最激进的全球徒步旅行周期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-29 08:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Maybe the market has been too hypnotized by the promise of cheap free money flowing forever, or maybe it remembers how the Fed stepped in last March to ensure that nobody lost any money and thus nobody wants to sell this time, or maybe it is just too used to buying every single dip so that news of the Fed's taper actually sent stocks higher. But all that may soon change, because as Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid calculates in terms of global central bank hikes exceeding cuts, we are now at the highest differential for a decade on a rolling 12-month basis.</p><p><blockquote>也许市场太被廉价自由资金永远流动的承诺所催眠，或者也许它记得美联储去年三月如何介入以确保没有人损失任何钱，因此这次没有人想卖出，或者也许它只是太习惯于逢低买入，以至于美联储缩减规模的消息实际上会推高股市。但这一切可能很快就会改变，因为正如德意志银行的吉姆·里德（Jim Reid）根据全球央行加息超过降息的计算，按滚动12个月计算，我们现在处于十年来的最高差异。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,<i>we are now entering the most aggressively global hiking cycle in a decade.</i></p><p><blockquote>换句话说，<i>我们现在正进入十年来最激进的全球徒步旅行周期。</i></blockquote></p><p> Some points on the data:</p><p><blockquote>数据的一些要点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The last 12 months have actually seen a historically low number of central bank rate moves in either direction. Never have global central banks been so inactive on that score. This is now starting to pick up though.</li>  <li>Since May 2012, global central banks have only seen the rolling 12m hike totals exceed cuts on 10% of occasions. We have just entered such a net hiking zone.</li>  <li>Central bank cuts have overwhelming exceeded hikes over the last couple of decades.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2760bc2328e86bf9439b7c268c2bd94\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>过去12个月，央行利率双向变动的数量实际上处于历史最低水平。全球央行从未在这一点上如此不积极。不过，这种情况现在开始好转。</li><li>自2012年5月以来，全球央行1200万次的滚动加息总数只有10%超过降息。我们刚刚进入了这样一个净徒步区。</li><li>过去几十年来，央行的降息幅度远远超过了加息幅度。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> So its quite clear that a global hiking cycle had already started before the recent mini energy crisis. Will this renewed spike in energy costs mean central banks accelerate this (e.g. BoE guidance last week) or will it hit demand enough that it actually slows them down as stocks slide?</p><p><blockquote>因此，很明显，在最近的小型能源危机之前，全球徒步旅行周期就已经开始了。能源成本的再次飙升是否意味着央行会加速这一进程（例如英国央行上周的指导），或者它会对需求造成足够的打击，以至于随着股市下滑，需求实际上会放缓？</blockquote></p><p> The answer is unclear but as Reid concludes, \"this is an incredibly delicate and difficult period for central banks.\"&nbsp; As a minimum, Reid notes, rates markets are finally waking up to the asymmetric risk/reward that had developed over the summer months given all the global inflation in the system and the evidence that we were in a global hiking cycle. One wonders when stocks will do the same.</p><p><blockquote>答案尚不清楚，但正如里德总结的那样，“对于央行来说，这是一个极其微妙和困难的时期。”里德指出，至少，鉴于系统中的全球通胀以及我们正处于全球加息周期的证据，利率市场终于意识到夏季几个月出现的不对称风险/回报。人们想知道股票什么时候也会这样做。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/we-are-entering-most-aggressive-global-hiking-cycle-decade\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/we-are-entering-most-aggressive-global-hiking-cycle-decade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129273771","content_text":"Maybe the market has been too hypnotized by the promise of cheap free money flowing forever, or maybe it remembers how the Fed stepped in last March to ensure that nobody lost any money and thus nobody wants to sell this time, or maybe it is just too used to buying every single dip so that news of the Fed's taper actually sent stocks higher. But all that may soon change, because as Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid calculates in terms of global central bank hikes exceeding cuts, we are now at the highest differential for a decade on a rolling 12-month basis.\nIn other words,we are now entering the most aggressively global hiking cycle in a decade.\nSome points on the data:\n\nThe last 12 months have actually seen a historically low number of central bank rate moves in either direction. Never have global central banks been so inactive on that score. This is now starting to pick up though.\nSince May 2012, global central banks have only seen the rolling 12m hike totals exceed cuts on 10% of occasions. We have just entered such a net hiking zone.\nCentral bank cuts have overwhelming exceeded hikes over the last couple of decades.\n\n\nSo its quite clear that a global hiking cycle had already started before the recent mini energy crisis. Will this renewed spike in energy costs mean central banks accelerate this (e.g. BoE guidance last week) or will it hit demand enough that it actually slows them down as stocks slide?\nThe answer is unclear but as Reid concludes, \"this is an incredibly delicate and difficult period for central banks.\"  As a minimum, Reid notes, rates markets are finally waking up to the asymmetric risk/reward that had developed over the summer months given all the global inflation in the system and the evidence that we were in a global hiking cycle. One wonders when stocks will do the same.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6031378,"gmtCreate":1632875182455,"gmtModify":1634782980924,"authorId":3569978586500313,"author":{"id":3569978586500313,"idStr":"3569978586500313","authorId":3569978586500313,"name":"CSYNCTP06","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fd2aa5c3a3fb737be0567ef3f336a98","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":862611364,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":862611055,"gmtCreate":1632875016904,"gmtModify":1632875017051,"author":{"id":"3554847287681495","authorId":"3554847287681495","name":"BC1970","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ddbf1d90da79b3d2d9ce69edd1f06d5","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3554847287681495","authorIdStr":"3554847287681495"},"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862611055","repostId":1129273771,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129273771","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632874854,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129273771?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-29 08:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"We Are Entering The Most Aggressive Global Hiking Cycle In A Decade<blockquote>我们正在进入十年来最激进的全球徒步旅行周期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129273771","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Maybe the market has been too hypnotized by the promise of cheap free money flowing forever, or mayb","content":"<p>Maybe the market has been too hypnotized by the promise of cheap free money flowing forever, or maybe it remembers how the Fed stepped in last March to ensure that nobody lost any money and thus nobody wants to sell this time, or maybe it is just too used to buying every single dip so that news of the Fed's taper actually sent stocks higher. But all that may soon change, because as Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid calculates in terms of global central bank hikes exceeding cuts, we are now at the highest differential for a decade on a rolling 12-month basis.</p><p><blockquote>也许市场太被廉价自由资金永远流动的承诺所催眠，或者也许它记得美联储去年三月如何介入以确保没有人损失任何钱，因此这次没有人想卖出，或者也许它只是太习惯于逢低买入，以至于美联储缩减规模的消息实际上会推高股市。但这一切可能很快就会改变，因为正如德意志银行的吉姆·里德（Jim Reid）根据全球央行加息超过降息的计算，按滚动12个月计算，我们现在处于十年来的最高差异。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,<i>we are now entering the most aggressively global hiking cycle in a decade.</i></p><p><blockquote>换句话说，<i>我们现在正进入十年来最激进的全球徒步旅行周期。</i></blockquote></p><p> Some points on the data:</p><p><blockquote>数据的一些要点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The last 12 months have actually seen a historically low number of central bank rate moves in either direction. Never have global central banks been so inactive on that score. This is now starting to pick up though.</li>  <li>Since May 2012, global central banks have only seen the rolling 12m hike totals exceed cuts on 10% of occasions. We have just entered such a net hiking zone.</li>  <li>Central bank cuts have overwhelming exceeded hikes over the last couple of decades.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2760bc2328e86bf9439b7c268c2bd94\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>过去12个月，央行利率双向变动的数量实际上处于历史最低水平。全球央行从未在这一点上如此不积极。不过，这种情况现在开始好转。</li><li>自2012年5月以来，全球央行1200万次的滚动加息总数只有10%超过降息。我们刚刚进入了这样一个净徒步区。</li><li>过去几十年来，央行的降息幅度远远超过了加息幅度。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> So its quite clear that a global hiking cycle had already started before the recent mini energy crisis. Will this renewed spike in energy costs mean central banks accelerate this (e.g. BoE guidance last week) or will it hit demand enough that it actually slows them down as stocks slide?</p><p><blockquote>因此，很明显，在最近的小型能源危机之前，全球徒步旅行周期就已经开始了。能源成本的再次飙升是否意味着央行会加速这一进程（例如英国央行上周的指导），或者它会对需求造成足够的打击，以至于随着股市下滑，需求实际上会放缓？</blockquote></p><p> The answer is unclear but as Reid concludes, \"this is an incredibly delicate and difficult period for central banks.\"&nbsp; As a minimum, Reid notes, rates markets are finally waking up to the asymmetric risk/reward that had developed over the summer months given all the global inflation in the system and the evidence that we were in a global hiking cycle. One wonders when stocks will do the same.</p><p><blockquote>答案尚不清楚，但正如里德总结的那样，“对于央行来说，这是一个极其微妙和困难的时期。”里德指出，至少，鉴于系统中的全球通胀以及我们正处于全球加息周期的证据，利率市场终于意识到夏季几个月出现的不对称风险/回报。人们想知道股票什么时候也会这样做。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>We Are Entering The Most Aggressive Global Hiking Cycle In A Decade<blockquote>我们正在进入十年来最激进的全球徒步旅行周期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWe Are Entering The Most Aggressive Global Hiking Cycle In A Decade<blockquote>我们正在进入十年来最激进的全球徒步旅行周期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-29 08:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Maybe the market has been too hypnotized by the promise of cheap free money flowing forever, or maybe it remembers how the Fed stepped in last March to ensure that nobody lost any money and thus nobody wants to sell this time, or maybe it is just too used to buying every single dip so that news of the Fed's taper actually sent stocks higher. But all that may soon change, because as Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid calculates in terms of global central bank hikes exceeding cuts, we are now at the highest differential for a decade on a rolling 12-month basis.</p><p><blockquote>也许市场太被廉价自由资金永远流动的承诺所催眠，或者也许它记得美联储去年三月如何介入以确保没有人损失任何钱，因此这次没有人想卖出，或者也许它只是太习惯于逢低买入，以至于美联储缩减规模的消息实际上会推高股市。但这一切可能很快就会改变，因为正如德意志银行的吉姆·里德（Jim Reid）根据全球央行加息超过降息的计算，按滚动12个月计算，我们现在处于十年来的最高差异。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,<i>we are now entering the most aggressively global hiking cycle in a decade.</i></p><p><blockquote>换句话说，<i>我们现在正进入十年来最激进的全球徒步旅行周期。</i></blockquote></p><p> Some points on the data:</p><p><blockquote>数据的一些要点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The last 12 months have actually seen a historically low number of central bank rate moves in either direction. Never have global central banks been so inactive on that score. This is now starting to pick up though.</li>  <li>Since May 2012, global central banks have only seen the rolling 12m hike totals exceed cuts on 10% of occasions. We have just entered such a net hiking zone.</li>  <li>Central bank cuts have overwhelming exceeded hikes over the last couple of decades.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2760bc2328e86bf9439b7c268c2bd94\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>过去12个月，央行利率双向变动的数量实际上处于历史最低水平。全球央行从未在这一点上如此不积极。不过，这种情况现在开始好转。</li><li>自2012年5月以来，全球央行1200万次的滚动加息总数只有10%超过降息。我们刚刚进入了这样一个净徒步区。</li><li>过去几十年来，央行的降息幅度远远超过了加息幅度。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> So its quite clear that a global hiking cycle had already started before the recent mini energy crisis. Will this renewed spike in energy costs mean central banks accelerate this (e.g. BoE guidance last week) or will it hit demand enough that it actually slows them down as stocks slide?</p><p><blockquote>因此，很明显，在最近的小型能源危机之前，全球徒步旅行周期就已经开始了。能源成本的再次飙升是否意味着央行会加速这一进程（例如英国央行上周的指导），或者它会对需求造成足够的打击，以至于随着股市下滑，需求实际上会放缓？</blockquote></p><p> The answer is unclear but as Reid concludes, \"this is an incredibly delicate and difficult period for central banks.\"&nbsp; As a minimum, Reid notes, rates markets are finally waking up to the asymmetric risk/reward that had developed over the summer months given all the global inflation in the system and the evidence that we were in a global hiking cycle. One wonders when stocks will do the same.</p><p><blockquote>答案尚不清楚，但正如里德总结的那样，“对于央行来说，这是一个极其微妙和困难的时期。”里德指出，至少，鉴于系统中的全球通胀以及我们正处于全球加息周期的证据，利率市场终于意识到夏季几个月出现的不对称风险/回报。人们想知道股票什么时候也会这样做。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/we-are-entering-most-aggressive-global-hiking-cycle-decade\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/we-are-entering-most-aggressive-global-hiking-cycle-decade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129273771","content_text":"Maybe the market has been too hypnotized by the promise of cheap free money flowing forever, or maybe it remembers how the Fed stepped in last March to ensure that nobody lost any money and thus nobody wants to sell this time, or maybe it is just too used to buying every single dip so that news of the Fed's taper actually sent stocks higher. But all that may soon change, because as Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid calculates in terms of global central bank hikes exceeding cuts, we are now at the highest differential for a decade on a rolling 12-month basis.\nIn other words,we are now entering the most aggressively global hiking cycle in a decade.\nSome points on the data:\n\nThe last 12 months have actually seen a historically low number of central bank rate moves in either direction. Never have global central banks been so inactive on that score. This is now starting to pick up though.\nSince May 2012, global central banks have only seen the rolling 12m hike totals exceed cuts on 10% of occasions. We have just entered such a net hiking zone.\nCentral bank cuts have overwhelming exceeded hikes over the last couple of decades.\n\n\nSo its quite clear that a global hiking cycle had already started before the recent mini energy crisis. Will this renewed spike in energy costs mean central banks accelerate this (e.g. BoE guidance last week) or will it hit demand enough that it actually slows them down as stocks slide?\nThe answer is unclear but as Reid concludes, \"this is an incredibly delicate and difficult period for central banks.\"  As a minimum, Reid notes, rates markets are finally waking up to the asymmetric risk/reward that had developed over the summer months given all the global inflation in the system and the evidence that we were in a global hiking cycle. One wonders when stocks will do the same.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6031354,"gmtCreate":1632875123546,"gmtModify":1634782983323,"authorId":3582069586264576,"author":{"id":3582069586264576,"idStr":"3582069586264576","authorId":3582069586264576,"name":"JinDuaHuat","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":862611055,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":862613197,"gmtCreate":1632874985071,"gmtModify":1632874985219,"author":{"id":"3581556523917541","authorId":"3581556523917541","name":"crtyn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62554f7ddf70dc78b9e6f2cc7c56c702","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581556523917541","authorIdStr":"3581556523917541"},"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862613197","repostId":1129273771,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129273771","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632874854,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129273771?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-29 08:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"We Are Entering The Most Aggressive Global Hiking Cycle In A Decade<blockquote>我们正在进入十年来最激进的全球徒步旅行周期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129273771","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Maybe the market has been too hypnotized by the promise of cheap free money flowing forever, or mayb","content":"<p>Maybe the market has been too hypnotized by the promise of cheap free money flowing forever, or maybe it remembers how the Fed stepped in last March to ensure that nobody lost any money and thus nobody wants to sell this time, or maybe it is just too used to buying every single dip so that news of the Fed's taper actually sent stocks higher. But all that may soon change, because as Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid calculates in terms of global central bank hikes exceeding cuts, we are now at the highest differential for a decade on a rolling 12-month basis.</p><p><blockquote>也许市场太被廉价自由资金永远流动的承诺所催眠，或者也许它记得美联储去年三月如何介入以确保没有人损失任何钱，因此这次没有人想卖出，或者也许它只是太习惯于逢低买入，以至于美联储缩减规模的消息实际上会推高股市。但这一切可能很快就会改变，因为正如德意志银行的吉姆·里德（Jim Reid）根据全球央行加息超过降息的计算，按滚动12个月计算，我们现在处于十年来的最高差异。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,<i>we are now entering the most aggressively global hiking cycle in a decade.</i></p><p><blockquote>换句话说，<i>我们现在正进入十年来最激进的全球徒步旅行周期。</i></blockquote></p><p> Some points on the data:</p><p><blockquote>数据的一些要点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The last 12 months have actually seen a historically low number of central bank rate moves in either direction. Never have global central banks been so inactive on that score. This is now starting to pick up though.</li>  <li>Since May 2012, global central banks have only seen the rolling 12m hike totals exceed cuts on 10% of occasions. We have just entered such a net hiking zone.</li>  <li>Central bank cuts have overwhelming exceeded hikes over the last couple of decades.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2760bc2328e86bf9439b7c268c2bd94\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>过去12个月，央行利率双向变动的数量实际上处于历史最低水平。全球央行从未在这一点上如此不积极。不过，这种情况现在开始好转。</li><li>自2012年5月以来，全球央行1200万次的滚动加息总数只有10%超过降息。我们刚刚进入了这样一个净徒步区。</li><li>过去几十年来，央行的降息幅度远远超过了加息幅度。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> So its quite clear that a global hiking cycle had already started before the recent mini energy crisis. Will this renewed spike in energy costs mean central banks accelerate this (e.g. BoE guidance last week) or will it hit demand enough that it actually slows them down as stocks slide?</p><p><blockquote>因此，很明显，在最近的小型能源危机之前，全球徒步旅行周期就已经开始了。能源成本的再次飙升是否意味着央行会加速这一进程（例如英国央行上周的指导），或者它会对需求造成足够的打击，以至于随着股市下滑，需求实际上会放缓？</blockquote></p><p> The answer is unclear but as Reid concludes, \"this is an incredibly delicate and difficult period for central banks.\"&nbsp; As a minimum, Reid notes, rates markets are finally waking up to the asymmetric risk/reward that had developed over the summer months given all the global inflation in the system and the evidence that we were in a global hiking cycle. One wonders when stocks will do the same.</p><p><blockquote>答案尚不清楚，但正如里德总结的那样，“对于央行来说，这是一个极其微妙和困难的时期。”里德指出，至少，鉴于系统中的全球通胀以及我们正处于全球加息周期的证据，利率市场终于意识到夏季几个月出现的不对称风险/回报。人们想知道股票什么时候也会这样做。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>We Are Entering The Most Aggressive Global Hiking Cycle In A Decade<blockquote>我们正在进入十年来最激进的全球徒步旅行周期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWe Are Entering The Most Aggressive Global Hiking Cycle In A Decade<blockquote>我们正在进入十年来最激进的全球徒步旅行周期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-29 08:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Maybe the market has been too hypnotized by the promise of cheap free money flowing forever, or maybe it remembers how the Fed stepped in last March to ensure that nobody lost any money and thus nobody wants to sell this time, or maybe it is just too used to buying every single dip so that news of the Fed's taper actually sent stocks higher. But all that may soon change, because as Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid calculates in terms of global central bank hikes exceeding cuts, we are now at the highest differential for a decade on a rolling 12-month basis.</p><p><blockquote>也许市场太被廉价自由资金永远流动的承诺所催眠，或者也许它记得美联储去年三月如何介入以确保没有人损失任何钱，因此这次没有人想卖出，或者也许它只是太习惯于逢低买入，以至于美联储缩减规模的消息实际上会推高股市。但这一切可能很快就会改变，因为正如德意志银行的吉姆·里德（Jim Reid）根据全球央行加息超过降息的计算，按滚动12个月计算，我们现在处于十年来的最高差异。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,<i>we are now entering the most aggressively global hiking cycle in a decade.</i></p><p><blockquote>换句话说，<i>我们现在正进入十年来最激进的全球徒步旅行周期。</i></blockquote></p><p> Some points on the data:</p><p><blockquote>数据的一些要点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The last 12 months have actually seen a historically low number of central bank rate moves in either direction. Never have global central banks been so inactive on that score. This is now starting to pick up though.</li>  <li>Since May 2012, global central banks have only seen the rolling 12m hike totals exceed cuts on 10% of occasions. We have just entered such a net hiking zone.</li>  <li>Central bank cuts have overwhelming exceeded hikes over the last couple of decades.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2760bc2328e86bf9439b7c268c2bd94\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>过去12个月，央行利率双向变动的数量实际上处于历史最低水平。全球央行从未在这一点上如此不积极。不过，这种情况现在开始好转。</li><li>自2012年5月以来，全球央行1200万次的滚动加息总数只有10%超过降息。我们刚刚进入了这样一个净徒步区。</li><li>过去几十年来，央行的降息幅度远远超过了加息幅度。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> So its quite clear that a global hiking cycle had already started before the recent mini energy crisis. Will this renewed spike in energy costs mean central banks accelerate this (e.g. BoE guidance last week) or will it hit demand enough that it actually slows them down as stocks slide?</p><p><blockquote>因此，很明显，在最近的小型能源危机之前，全球徒步旅行周期就已经开始了。能源成本的再次飙升是否意味着央行会加速这一进程（例如英国央行上周的指导），或者它会对需求造成足够的打击，以至于随着股市下滑，需求实际上会放缓？</blockquote></p><p> The answer is unclear but as Reid concludes, \"this is an incredibly delicate and difficult period for central banks.\"&nbsp; As a minimum, Reid notes, rates markets are finally waking up to the asymmetric risk/reward that had developed over the summer months given all the global inflation in the system and the evidence that we were in a global hiking cycle. One wonders when stocks will do the same.</p><p><blockquote>答案尚不清楚，但正如里德总结的那样，“对于央行来说，这是一个极其微妙和困难的时期。”里德指出，至少，鉴于系统中的全球通胀以及我们正处于全球加息周期的证据，利率市场终于意识到夏季几个月出现的不对称风险/回报。人们想知道股票什么时候也会这样做。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/we-are-entering-most-aggressive-global-hiking-cycle-decade\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/we-are-entering-most-aggressive-global-hiking-cycle-decade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129273771","content_text":"Maybe the market has been too hypnotized by the promise of cheap free money flowing forever, or maybe it remembers how the Fed stepped in last March to ensure that nobody lost any money and thus nobody wants to sell this time, or maybe it is just too used to buying every single dip so that news of the Fed's taper actually sent stocks higher. But all that may soon change, because as Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid calculates in terms of global central bank hikes exceeding cuts, we are now at the highest differential for a decade on a rolling 12-month basis.\nIn other words,we are now entering the most aggressively global hiking cycle in a decade.\nSome points on the data:\n\nThe last 12 months have actually seen a historically low number of central bank rate moves in either direction. Never have global central banks been so inactive on that score. This is now starting to pick up though.\nSince May 2012, global central banks have only seen the rolling 12m hike totals exceed cuts on 10% of occasions. We have just entered such a net hiking zone.\nCentral bank cuts have overwhelming exceeded hikes over the last couple of decades.\n\n\nSo its quite clear that a global hiking cycle had already started before the recent mini energy crisis. Will this renewed spike in energy costs mean central banks accelerate this (e.g. BoE guidance last week) or will it hit demand enough that it actually slows them down as stocks slide?\nThe answer is unclear but as Reid concludes, \"this is an incredibly delicate and difficult period for central banks.\"  As a minimum, Reid notes, rates markets are finally waking up to the asymmetric risk/reward that had developed over the summer months given all the global inflation in the system and the evidence that we were in a global hiking cycle. One wonders when stocks will do the same.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6031312,"gmtCreate":1632875010981,"gmtModify":1634782987371,"authorId":3570943747362190,"author":{"id":3570943747362190,"idStr":"3570943747362190","authorId":3570943747362190,"name":"ZBM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/270b131944942f65c2892aebe29ce0dd","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":862613197,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[OK][Allin]","text":"[OK][Allin]","html":"[OK][Allin]"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":91,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}