Favorable Outlook For GM_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

Favorable Outlook For GM

Seeking Alpha2021-10-08

Summary GM has struggled with the transition to EVs and other technology-forward efforts. The Wall Street consensus is that GM will succeed sooner rather than later. The market-implied outlook (...

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Nebhol
·2021-10-08
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Timevestor
·2021-10-08
Good
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- Nebhol:
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  2021-10-08
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Shawnn_13
·2021-10-08
lol
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- Shawnn_13:
  thx
  2021-10-08
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Boink
·2021-10-08
Legacy automaker 😂
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egg3030
·2021-10-08
But what about the larger infrastructure issues
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JerryChiang
·2021-10-08
GM need to pick up on the EV segment
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line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFavorable Outlook For GM\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-08 11:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458959-favorable-outlook-for-gm>Seeking Alpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nGM has struggled with the transition to EVs and other technology-forward efforts.\nThe Wall Street consensus is that GM will succeed sooner rather than later.\nThe market-implied outlook (...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458959-favorable-outlook-for-gm\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"GM","symbol_name":"通用汽车","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458959-favorable-outlook-for-gm","article_id":"1128736762","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128736762","pubTimestamp":1633662653,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Summary\n\nGM has struggled with the transition to EVs and other technology-forward efforts.\nThe Wall ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车"},"translate_title":"通用汽车前景看好","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"GM":0.9},"content_text":"Summary\n\nGM has struggled with the transition to EVs and other technology-forward efforts.\nThe Wall Street consensus is that GM will succeed sooner rather than later.\nThe market-implied outlook (derived from options prices) has shifted to a substantially more positive near-term view.\nI see GM as having a favorable risk-return profile.\n\nJHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nGeneral Motors(NYSE:GM)seems to be having a moment, with the share price rising 4.5% today, following an inspirational presentation to analysts. The company outlined its plan to be a leader in EVs and a vision for building a million self-driving cars by 2030. For GM, as with Ford(NYSE:F), the company recognizes that earnings growth and share valuation depend on aggressive technology-driven development. If GM can convince the market, and then demonstrate, that there is a real roadmap to higher-margin EVs and self-driving vehicles, the shares should demand a considerably higher price. After all, GM’s forward P/E is 8.8, as compared to TSLA’s 144.8.\nIntriguingly, the Wall Street analysts have already priced an outlook for GM’s transformation. The Wall Street analyst consensus price target for GM has surged to $71.3, as compared to $46.6 in February of 2020, right before COVID hit and $51 at the end of 2020. At the current share price of $56.30, the Wall Street consensus (as calculated by Seeking Alpha) is for 12-month price appreciation of 26.7%.\nWhen I last analyzed GM on March 7, 2021, seven months ago, the Wall Street consensus outlook was already bullish, with a 12-month price target that was about 20% above the share price at that time. Of the 19 analysts included in Seeking Alpha’s consensus outlook, 17 were bullish and 2 were neutral. I assigned GM a neutral rating at that time, largely because the outlook implied by options prices, in contrast to the Wall Street consensus, was bearish. The options market to early 2022 was indicating elevated probabilities of price declines. I compromised between the bullish Wall Street and the bearish options market view with a neutral rating. Since my post was published, GM has gained 4% (including the big rise today), as compared to 15.1% in price appreciation for the S&P 500.\nPerformance of GM vs. the S&P 500 over the past 7 months (Source: Seeking Alpha)\nUsing options prices to build a probabilistic price return outlook is conceptually straightforward. The price of an option represents the market’s consensus estimate for the probability that the price of the underlying stock (GM, in this case) will rise above (call option) or fall below (put option) a specific level (the strike price) between now and when the option expires. By analyzing calls and puts at a range of strike prices and a common expiration date, it is possible to calculate a probabilistic outlook for the underlying security that reconciles the options prices. This is referred to as the market-implied outlook. For readers seeking more information on this approach, I have written an overview post, including links to the relevant financial literature.\nIt is clear today, as it was for my last analysis, that GM is relying on the ability to compete with EVs and autonomous vehicles. The analysts are valuing the company assuming that GM will successfully make this transition. Even if one agrees, the challenge is in the timing. Since March, GM has suffered an expensive and embarrassing setback with the massive recall of Chevy electric vehicles. Even if one buys into management’s vision, one imagines that some car buyers will be reluctant to buy a GM EV after seeing pictures of charred Chevy Bolts.\nGM is currently 11.9% below its 2021 high close of $63.92, set on June 8. With 7 months since my last analysis, and with the market and the analysts responding favorably to GM’s vision, I am revisiting my rating on GM.\nWall Street Consensus Outlook for GM\nETrade’s calculation of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using the views of 13 ranked analysts who have issued ratings and price targets for GM within the past 90 days. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus 12-month price target is 27.5% above the current share price. There is a fairly high level of dispersion in the price targets, which reduces confidence in the consensus value. Of the 13 analysts, 12 give GM a buy rating and 1 assigns a neutral rating.\nWall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for GM (Source: ETrade)\nSeeking Alpha’s version of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using ratings and prices targets from 21 analysts. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus price target is 26.7% above the current share price. Only 1 analyst is neutral and the other 20 are bullish.\nWall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for GM (Source: Seeking Alpha)\nThe good news for GM shareholders is that the analysts are almost uniformly bullish on GM and the average 12-month price target is about 27% above the current level. There are somewhat cautionary considerations, however. First, the spread among the price targets is high, which means that there is not a lot of confidence in the outlook. Second, the timing of a share price recovery is hard to predict. The analysts were bullish back in March, as well.\nMarket-Implied Outlook for GM\nI have analyzed the prices of call and put options at a range of strike prices, all expiring on January 21, 2022 to generate the market-implied outlook for the next 3.5 months (from today until the expiration date). In my previous analysis, I also calculated a market-implied outlook using options with this expiration date. I have also generated the market-implied outlook to mid 2022, a period of 8.3 months, by analyzing options that expire on June 21, 2022.\nThe standard presentation of the market-implied outlook is a probability distribution of price return, with probability on the vertical axis and return on the horizontal.\nMarket-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 3.5-month period from today until January 21, 2022 (Source: Author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)\nThe market-implied outlook for GM for the 3.5-month period between now and January 21, 2022 is generally symmetric, although the peak probability is slightly tilted towards negative returns, corresponding to a price return of -1.5%. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 35.7%, quite high for an individual stock.\nTo make it easier to directly compare the probabilities of positive and negative returns, I rotate the negative return side of the distribution about the vertical axis (see chart below).\nMarket-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 3.5-month period from today until January 21, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)\nThis view shows that the probabilities of positive and negative returns are almost identical for most outcomes (the solid blue line and the dashed red line are very close to one another). The exception is for small-magnitude price returns (+/- 5%).\nTheory predicts that the market-implied outlook will tend to be negatively biased because risk-averse investors pay more than fair value for put options to limit losses in long positions. In the financial literature, the market-implied outlook is often referred to as being risk-neutral. What this means is that the market-implied outlook would be unbiased if investors, in aggregate, were risk-neutral. Investors, collectively, are risk-averse - demanding to be paid a premium to take on risk (the equity risk premium). For this reason, a market-implied outlook with closely matching probabilities between positive and negative returns, as we see here, is actually a slightly bullish view.\nThe market-implied outlook to the middle of 2022 (8.3 months), calculated using the prices of call and put options that expire on June 17, 2022, exhibits more of a negative tilt. Qualitative consideration of the potential for a negative bias leads me to characterize this outlook as neutral, perhaps with a slight bearish tilt. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 36.5%.\nMarket-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 8.3-month period from today until June 17, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)\nContrast the current market-implied outlooks for GM with the 10.6-month outlook to January 2022 from my previous analysis in March, which was substantially bearish. In this outlook, the probabilities of negative price returns were much higher relative to those for positive returns. The current market-implied outlook, slightly bullish to early 2022 and neutral to mid-2022, is much more favorable than the outlook from my earlier analysis.\nSummary\nGM is at an important transition point in its history. The company needs to rapidly and convincingly shift away from traditional internal combustion vehicles and towards EVs and autonomous vehicles. The Wall Street analysts, as a group, are confident that GM can make strides in this direction and the analyst consensus has gotten more bullish through 2021. The Wall Street consensus rating is bullish, with about 27% expected 12-month price appreciation.\nThe projected volatility for GM, calculated from the market-implied outlook, is about 36%. This is a fairly high level of volatility, but looks reasonable if we believe that the expected return is 27%. As a rule of thumb for a buy, I want to see expected return that is at or above ½ of the volatility.\nTaking the analyst expected return at face value, GM easily surpasses this threshold. The market-implied outlook to early 2022 is slightly bullish, shifting to neutral by mid-2022. The market-implied outlook for GM has improved dramatically since March, when it was significantly bearish. I am changing my rating on GM from neutral to bullish.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":821035042,"gmtCreate":1633671960596,"gmtModify":1633671961247,"author":{"id":"3567411499210880","authorId":"3567411499210880","name":"Nebhol","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0bfc2a45b91e41a283614268857b3a5","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3567411499210880","idStr":"3567411499210880"},"htmlText":"Like comment&nbsp;","listText":"Like comment&nbsp;","text":"Like comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821035042","repostId":1128736762,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128736762","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633662653,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1128736762?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 11:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Favorable Outlook For GM<blockquote>通用汽车前景良好</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128736762","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nGM has struggled with the transition to EVs and other technology-forward efforts.\nThe Wall ","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>GM has struggled with the transition to EVs and other technology-forward efforts.</li> <li>The Wall Street consensus is that GM will succeed sooner rather than later.</li> <li>The market-implied outlook (derived from options prices) has shifted to a substantially more positive near-term view.</li> <li>I see GM as having a favorable risk-return profile.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/139e056979d4a81394ff8a2299dd40df\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>通用汽车一直在努力向电动汽车和其他技术前沿的过渡。</li><li>华尔街的共识是通用汽车迟早会成功。</li><li>市场隐含的前景（来自期权价格）已经转向更加积极的近期观点。</li><li>我认为通用汽车具有良好的风险回报状况。</li></ul>JHVEPhoto/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote> General Motors(NYSE:GM)seems to be having a moment, with the share price rising 4.5% today, following an inspirational&nbsp;presentation to analysts. The company outlined its plan to be a leader in EVs and a vision for building a&nbsp;million self-driving cars by 2030. For GM, as with Ford(NYSE:F), the company recognizes that earnings growth and share valuation depend on aggressive technology-driven development. If GM can convince the market, and then demonstrate, that there is a real roadmap to higher-margin EVs and self-driving vehicles, the shares should demand a considerably higher price. After all, GM’s forward P/E is&nbsp;8.8, as compared to TSLA’s&nbsp;144.8.<blockquote>通用汽车(NYSE：GM)似乎迎来了一个时刻，在向分析师做了一次鼓舞人心的演讲后，今天股价上涨了4.5%。该公司概述了成为电动汽车领导者的计划以及到2030年生产100万辆自动驾驶汽车的愿景。对于通用汽车来说，与福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）一样，该公司认识到盈利增长和股票估值取决于积极的技术驱动发展。如果通用汽车能够说服市场，然后证明有一个真正的高利润电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车的路线图，那么该股的价格应该会高得多。毕竟，通用汽车的预期市盈率为8.8，而特斯拉的预期市盈率为144.8。</blockquote> Intriguingly, the Wall Street analysts have already priced an outlook for GM’s transformation. The Wall Street analyst&nbsp;consensus price target&nbsp;for GM has surged to $71.3, as compared to $46.6 in February of 2020, right before COVID hit and $51 at the end of 2020. At the current share price of $56.30, the Wall Street consensus (as calculated by&nbsp;Seeking Alpha) is for 12-month price appreciation of 26.7%.<blockquote>有趣的是，华尔街分析师已经对通用汽车转型的前景进行了定价。华尔街分析师对通用汽车的一致目标价已飙升至71.3美元，而2020年2月新冠疫情爆发前为46.6美元，2020年底为51美元。按目前56.30美元的股价计算，华尔街的共识（由Seeking Alpha计算）是12个月内股价上涨26.7%。</blockquote> When I&nbsp;last analyzed GM on March 7, 2021, seven months ago, the Wall Street consensus outlook was already bullish, with a 12-month price target that was about 20% above the share price at that time. Of the 19 analysts included in Seeking Alpha’s consensus outlook, 17 were bullish and 2 were neutral. I assigned GM a neutral rating at that time, largely because the outlook implied by options prices, in contrast to the Wall Street consensus, was bearish. The options market to early 2022 was indicating elevated probabilities of price declines. I compromised between the bullish Wall Street and the bearish options market view with a neutral rating. Since my post was published, GM has gained 4% (including the big rise today), as compared to 15.1% in price appreciation for the S&amp;P 500.<blockquote>当我上次在7个月前的2021年3月7日分析通用汽车时，华尔街的普遍前景已经看涨，12个月目标价比当时的股价高出约20%。在Seeking Alpha一致展望中的19名分析师中，17名分析师看涨，2名分析师中性。我当时给通用汽车的评级是中性的，主要是因为与华尔街的共识相反，期权价格所暗示的前景是看跌的。截至2022年初的期权市场表明价格下跌的可能性很高。我在看涨华尔街和看跌期权市场观点之间做出了妥协，给予了中性评级。自从我的文章发表以来，通用汽车已经上涨了4%（包括今天的大幅上涨），而标普500的价格上涨了15.1%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c074188d666f33a0849eb28c23242522\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Performance of GM vs. the S&amp;P 500 over the past 7 months (Source: Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>通用汽车与标普500过去7个月的表现（来源：Seeking Alpha）</blockquote> Using options prices to build a probabilistic price return outlook is conceptually straightforward. The price of an option represents the market’s consensus estimate for the probability that the price of the underlying stock (GM, in this case) will rise above (call option) or fall below (put option) a specific level (the strike price) between now and when the option expires. By analyzing calls and puts at a range of strike prices and a common expiration date, it is possible to calculate a probabilistic outlook for the underlying security that reconciles the options prices. This is referred to as the market-implied outlook. For readers seeking more information on this approach, I have written an&nbsp;overview post, including links to the relevant financial literature.<blockquote>使用期权价格来构建概率价格回报前景在概念上很简单。期权价格代表市场对标的股票（在本例中为通用汽车）价格高于（看涨期权期权）或低于（看跌期权）特定水平（执行价格）的概率的一致估计。）从现在到期权到期。通过分析一系列执行价格和共同到期日的评级和看跌期权，可以计算出与期权价格相一致的基础证券的概率前景。这被称为市场隐含前景。对于寻求更多关于这种方法的信息的读者，我写了一篇概述文章，包括相关金融文献的链接。</blockquote> It is clear today, as it was for my last analysis, that GM is relying on the ability to compete with EVs and autonomous vehicles. The analysts are valuing the company assuming that GM will successfully make this transition. Even if one agrees, the challenge is in the timing. Since March, GM has suffered an expensive and embarrassing setback with the&nbsp;massive recall&nbsp;of Chevy electric vehicles. Even if one buys into management’s vision, one imagines that some car buyers will be reluctant to buy a GM EV after seeing pictures of&nbsp;charred Chevy Bolts.<blockquote>今天很明显，正如我上次的分析一样，通用汽车依靠的是与电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车竞争的能力。分析师对该公司进行估值时假设通用汽车将成功实现这一转型。即使有人同意，挑战也在于时机。自3月份以来，通用汽车因大规模召回雪佛兰电动汽车而遭受了代价高昂且令人尴尬的挫折。即使人们相信管理层的愿景，人们也会想象一些购车者在看到烧焦的雪佛兰Bolt的照片后不愿意购买通用汽车电动汽车。</blockquote> GM is currently 11.9% below its 2021 high close of $63.92, set on June 8. With 7 months since my last analysis, and with the market and the analysts responding favorably to GM’s vision, I am revisiting my rating on GM.<blockquote>通用汽车目前较6月8日创下的2021年收盘价63.92美元低11.9%。距离我上次分析已经过去7个月了，随着市场和分析师对通用汽车的愿景反应良好，我正在重新审视我对通用汽车的评级。</blockquote> Wall Street Consensus Outlook for GM<blockquote>华尔街对通用汽车的共识前景</blockquote> ETrade’s calculation of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using the views of 13 ranked analysts who have issued ratings and price targets for GM within the past 90 days. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus 12-month price target is 27.5% above the current share price. There is a fairly high level of dispersion in the price targets, which&nbsp;reduces confidence&nbsp;in the consensus value. Of the 13 analysts, 12 give GM a buy rating and 1 assigns a neutral rating.<blockquote>ETrade对华尔街共识前景的计算是根据过去90天内发布通用汽车评级和价格目标的13位排名分析师的观点计算得出的。共识评级为看涨，共识12个月目标价比当前股价高出27.5%。价格目标存在相当高的离散度，这降低了对共识价值的信心。在13名分析师中，12名给予通用汽车买入评级，1名给予中性评级。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31b957237cbf2644c75e372831ed0714\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"838\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Wall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for GM (Source: ETrade)<blockquote>华尔街分析师对通用汽车的一致评级和12个月目标价（来源：ETrade）</blockquote> Seeking Alpha’s version of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using ratings and prices targets from 21 analysts. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus price target is 26.7% above the current share price. Only 1 analyst is neutral and the other 20 are bullish.<blockquote>Seeking Alpha版本的华尔街共识前景是使用21位分析师的评级和价格目标计算得出的。一致评级为看涨，一致目标价较当前股价高出26.7%。只有1名分析师持中性态度，其他20名分析师持看涨态度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbd40949c8ccc5a730e0aa07c04e15a8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"645\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Wall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for GM (Source: Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>华尔街分析师对通用汽车的一致评级和12个月目标价（来源：Seeking Alpha）</blockquote> The good news for GM shareholders is that the analysts are almost uniformly bullish on GM and the average 12-month price target is about 27% above the current level. There are somewhat cautionary considerations, however. First, the spread among the price targets is high, which means that there is not a lot of confidence in the outlook. Second, the timing of a share price recovery is hard to predict. The analysts were bullish back in March, as well.<blockquote>对于通用汽车股东来说，好消息是分析师几乎一致看好通用汽车，12个月平均目标价比当前水平高出约27%。然而，也有一些谨慎的考虑。首先，价格目标之间的利差很高，这意味着对前景没有太大信心。其次，股价回升的时机很难预测。分析师在三月份也持乐观态度。</blockquote> Market-Implied Outlook for GM<blockquote>通用汽车的市场隐含前景</blockquote> I have analyzed the prices of call and put options at a range of strike prices, all expiring on January 21, 2022 to generate the market-implied outlook for the next 3.5 months (from today until the expiration date). In my previous analysis, I also calculated a market-implied outlook using options with this expiration date. I have also generated the market-implied outlook to mid 2022, a period of 8.3 months, by analyzing options that expire on June 21, 2022.<blockquote>我分析了一系列执行价格的看涨期权和看跌期权的价格，这些期权都将于2022年1月21日到期，以生成未来3.5个月（从今天到到期日）的市场隐含前景。在我之前的分析中，我还使用具有此到期日的期权计算了市场隐含前景。我还通过分析2022年6月21日到期的期权，生成了2022年中期（8.3个月）的市场隐含前景。</blockquote> The standard presentation of the market-implied outlook is a probability distribution of price return, with probability on the vertical axis and return on the horizontal.<blockquote>市场隐含前景的标准表示是价格回报的概率分布，概率在纵轴，回报在横轴。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd025ceee857934bb5992eb6c234bd6d\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 3.5-month period from today until January 21, 2022 (Source: Author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)<blockquote>从今天到2022年1月21日的3.5个月期间通用汽车的市场隐含价格回报概率（来源：作者使用ETrade期权报价进行计算）</blockquote> The market-implied outlook for GM for the 3.5-month period between now and January 21, 2022 is generally symmetric, although the peak probability is slightly tilted towards negative returns, corresponding to a price return of -1.5%. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 35.7%, quite high for an individual stock.<blockquote>从现在到2022年1月21日的3.5个月期间，通用汽车的市场隐含前景总体上是对称的，尽管峰值概率略有向负回报倾斜，对应的价格回报为-1.5%。这种分布得出的年化波动率为35.7%，对于个股来说相当高。</blockquote> To make it easier to directly compare the probabilities of positive and negative returns, I rotate the negative return side of the distribution about the vertical axis (see chart below).<blockquote>为了更容易直接比较正回报和负回报的概率，我围绕垂直轴旋转分布的负回报侧（见下图）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc3728611fe98a00c0edfa693bae10b4\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 3.5-month period from today until January 21, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)<blockquote>通用汽车从今天到2022年1月21日3.5个月期间的市场隐含价格回报概率。分布的负回报侧已绕垂直轴旋转（来源：作者使用ETrade的期权报价进行计算）</blockquote> This view shows that the probabilities of positive and negative returns are almost identical for most outcomes (the solid blue line and the dashed red line are very close to one another). The exception is for small-magnitude price returns (+/- 5%).<blockquote>这种观点表明，对于大多数结果，正回报和负回报的概率几乎相同（蓝色实线和红色虚线彼此非常接近）。例外情况是小规模价格回报（+/-5%）。</blockquote> Theory predicts that the market-implied outlook will tend to be negatively biased because risk-averse investors pay more than fair value for put options to limit losses in long positions. In the financial literature, the market-implied outlook is often referred to as being risk-neutral. What this means is that the market-implied outlook would be unbiased if investors, in aggregate, were risk-neutral. Investors, collectively, are risk-averse - demanding to be paid a premium to take on risk (the equity risk premium). For this reason, a market-implied outlook with closely matching probabilities between positive and negative returns, as we see here, is actually a slightly bullish view.<blockquote>理论预测，市场隐含的前景将倾向于负面偏差，因为规避风险的投资者为看跌期权支付的价格高于公允价值，以限制多头头寸的损失。在金融文献中，市场隐含的前景通常被称为风险中性的。这意味着，如果投资者总体上风险中性，市场隐含的前景将是无偏见的。总的来说，投资者是规避风险的——要求获得承担风险的溢价（股票风险溢价）。因此，正如我们在这里看到的，正回报和负回报之间概率密切匹配的市场隐含前景实际上是一种稍微看涨的观点。</blockquote> The market-implied outlook to the middle of 2022 (8.3 months), calculated using the prices of call and put options that expire on June 17, 2022, exhibits more of a negative tilt. Qualitative consideration of the potential for a negative bias leads me to characterize this outlook as neutral, perhaps with a slight bearish tilt. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 36.5%.<blockquote>使用2022年6月17日到期的看涨期权和看跌期权价格计算的2022年中期（8.3个月）的市场隐含前景显示出更多的负面倾斜。对潜在负面偏见的定性考虑使我将这种前景描述为中性，也许有轻微的看跌倾向。由此分布得出的年化波动率为36.5%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7731002b4fcd2fbea3e50f32512c507\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 8.3-month period from today until June 17, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)<blockquote>通用汽车从今天到2022年6月17日的8.3个月期间的市场隐含价格回报概率。分布的负回报侧已绕垂直轴旋转（来源：作者使用ETrade的期权报价进行计算）</blockquote> Contrast the current market-implied outlooks for GM with the 10.6-month outlook to January 2022 from my&nbsp;previous analysis&nbsp;in March, which was substantially bearish. In this outlook, the probabilities of negative price returns were much higher relative to those for positive returns. The current market-implied outlook, slightly bullish to early 2022 and neutral to mid-2022, is much more favorable than the outlook from my earlier analysis.<blockquote>将通用汽车当前的市场隐含前景与我之前3月份分析中截至2022年1月的10.6个月前景进行对比，该分析非常悲观。在这种前景中，相对于正回报，负价格回报的概率要高得多。目前市场隐含的前景，2022年初略有看涨，2022年中期中性，比我之前分析的前景要有利得多。</blockquote> Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> GM is at an important transition point in its history. The company needs to rapidly and convincingly shift away from traditional internal combustion vehicles and towards EVs and autonomous vehicles. The Wall Street analysts, as a group, are confident that GM can make strides in this direction and the analyst consensus has gotten more bullish through 2021. The Wall Street consensus rating is bullish, with about 27% expected 12-month price appreciation.<blockquote>通用汽车正处于其历史上的一个重要转折点。该公司需要迅速、令人信服地从传统内燃机汽车转向电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车。华尔街分析师作为一个群体，相信通用汽车能够在这个方向上取得长足进步，并且分析师的共识在2021年变得更加乐观。华尔街一致评级为看涨，约27%的人预计12个月价格将上涨。</blockquote> The projected volatility for GM, calculated from the market-implied outlook, is about 36%. This is a fairly high level of volatility, but looks reasonable if we believe that the expected return is 27%. As a rule of thumb for a buy, I want to see expected return that is at or above ½ of the volatility.<blockquote>根据市场隐含前景计算，通用汽车的预计波动性约为36%。这是一个相当高的波动水平，但如果我们相信预期回报率为27%，那么看起来是合理的。作为买入的经验法则，我希望看到预期回报等于或高于波动率的1/2。</blockquote> Taking the analyst expected return at face value, GM easily surpasses this threshold. The market-implied outlook to early 2022 is slightly bullish, shifting to neutral by mid-2022. The market-implied outlook for GM has improved dramatically since March, when it was significantly bearish. I am changing my rating on GM from neutral to bullish.<blockquote>从分析师的预期回报率来看，通用汽车轻松超过了这一门槛。市场对2022年初的隐含前景略有看涨，到2022年中期将转向中性。自3月份以来，市场对通用汽车的隐含前景已显着改善，当时通用汽车的前景明显看跌。我将对通用汽车的评级从中性改为看涨。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Favorable Outlook For GM<blockquote>通用汽车前景良好</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFavorable Outlook For GM<blockquote>通用汽车前景良好</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-10-08 11:10\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>GM has struggled with the transition to EVs and other technology-forward efforts.</li> <li>The Wall Street consensus is that GM will succeed sooner rather than later.</li> <li>The market-implied outlook (derived from options prices) has shifted to a substantially more positive near-term view.</li> <li>I see GM as having a favorable risk-return profile.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/139e056979d4a81394ff8a2299dd40df\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>通用汽车一直在努力向电动汽车和其他技术前沿的过渡。</li><li>华尔街的共识是通用汽车迟早会成功。</li><li>市场隐含的前景（来自期权价格）已经转向更加积极的近期观点。</li><li>我认为通用汽车具有良好的风险回报状况。</li></ul>JHVEPhoto/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote> General Motors(NYSE:GM)seems to be having a moment, with the share price rising 4.5% today, following an inspirational&nbsp;presentation to analysts. The company outlined its plan to be a leader in EVs and a vision for building a&nbsp;million self-driving cars by 2030. For GM, as with Ford(NYSE:F), the company recognizes that earnings growth and share valuation depend on aggressive technology-driven development. If GM can convince the market, and then demonstrate, that there is a real roadmap to higher-margin EVs and self-driving vehicles, the shares should demand a considerably higher price. After all, GM’s forward P/E is&nbsp;8.8, as compared to TSLA’s&nbsp;144.8.<blockquote>通用汽车(NYSE：GM)似乎迎来了一个时刻，在向分析师做了一次鼓舞人心的演讲后，今天股价上涨了4.5%。该公司概述了成为电动汽车领导者的计划以及到2030年生产100万辆自动驾驶汽车的愿景。对于通用汽车来说，与福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）一样，该公司认识到盈利增长和股票估值取决于积极的技术驱动发展。如果通用汽车能够说服市场，然后证明有一个真正的高利润电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车的路线图，那么该股的价格应该会高得多。毕竟，通用汽车的预期市盈率为8.8，而特斯拉的预期市盈率为144.8。</blockquote> Intriguingly, the Wall Street analysts have already priced an outlook for GM’s transformation. The Wall Street analyst&nbsp;consensus price target&nbsp;for GM has surged to $71.3, as compared to $46.6 in February of 2020, right before COVID hit and $51 at the end of 2020. At the current share price of $56.30, the Wall Street consensus (as calculated by&nbsp;Seeking Alpha) is for 12-month price appreciation of 26.7%.<blockquote>有趣的是，华尔街分析师已经对通用汽车转型的前景进行了定价。华尔街分析师对通用汽车的一致目标价已飙升至71.3美元，而2020年2月新冠疫情爆发前为46.6美元，2020年底为51美元。按目前56.30美元的股价计算，华尔街的共识（由Seeking Alpha计算）是12个月内股价上涨26.7%。</blockquote> When I&nbsp;last analyzed GM on March 7, 2021, seven months ago, the Wall Street consensus outlook was already bullish, with a 12-month price target that was about 20% above the share price at that time. Of the 19 analysts included in Seeking Alpha’s consensus outlook, 17 were bullish and 2 were neutral. I assigned GM a neutral rating at that time, largely because the outlook implied by options prices, in contrast to the Wall Street consensus, was bearish. The options market to early 2022 was indicating elevated probabilities of price declines. I compromised between the bullish Wall Street and the bearish options market view with a neutral rating. Since my post was published, GM has gained 4% (including the big rise today), as compared to 15.1% in price appreciation for the S&amp;P 500.<blockquote>当我上次在7个月前的2021年3月7日分析通用汽车时，华尔街的普遍前景已经看涨，12个月目标价比当时的股价高出约20%。在Seeking Alpha一致展望中的19名分析师中，17名分析师看涨，2名分析师中性。我当时给通用汽车的评级是中性的，主要是因为与华尔街的共识相反，期权价格所暗示的前景是看跌的。截至2022年初的期权市场表明价格下跌的可能性很高。我在看涨华尔街和看跌期权市场观点之间做出了妥协，给予了中性评级。自从我的文章发表以来，通用汽车已经上涨了4%（包括今天的大幅上涨），而标普500的价格上涨了15.1%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c074188d666f33a0849eb28c23242522\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Performance of GM vs. the S&amp;P 500 over the past 7 months (Source: Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>通用汽车与标普500过去7个月的表现（来源：Seeking Alpha）</blockquote> Using options prices to build a probabilistic price return outlook is conceptually straightforward. The price of an option represents the market’s consensus estimate for the probability that the price of the underlying stock (GM, in this case) will rise above (call option) or fall below (put option) a specific level (the strike price) between now and when the option expires. By analyzing calls and puts at a range of strike prices and a common expiration date, it is possible to calculate a probabilistic outlook for the underlying security that reconciles the options prices. This is referred to as the market-implied outlook. For readers seeking more information on this approach, I have written an&nbsp;overview post, including links to the relevant financial literature.<blockquote>使用期权价格来构建概率价格回报前景在概念上很简单。期权价格代表市场对标的股票（在本例中为通用汽车）价格高于（看涨期权期权）或低于（看跌期权）特定水平（执行价格）的概率的一致估计。）从现在到期权到期。通过分析一系列执行价格和共同到期日的评级和看跌期权，可以计算出与期权价格相一致的基础证券的概率前景。这被称为市场隐含前景。对于寻求更多关于这种方法的信息的读者，我写了一篇概述文章，包括相关金融文献的链接。</blockquote> It is clear today, as it was for my last analysis, that GM is relying on the ability to compete with EVs and autonomous vehicles. The analysts are valuing the company assuming that GM will successfully make this transition. Even if one agrees, the challenge is in the timing. Since March, GM has suffered an expensive and embarrassing setback with the&nbsp;massive recall&nbsp;of Chevy electric vehicles. Even if one buys into management’s vision, one imagines that some car buyers will be reluctant to buy a GM EV after seeing pictures of&nbsp;charred Chevy Bolts.<blockquote>今天很明显，正如我上次的分析一样，通用汽车依靠的是与电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车竞争的能力。分析师对该公司进行估值时假设通用汽车将成功实现这一转型。即使有人同意，挑战也在于时机。自3月份以来，通用汽车因大规模召回雪佛兰电动汽车而遭受了代价高昂且令人尴尬的挫折。即使人们相信管理层的愿景，人们也会想象一些购车者在看到烧焦的雪佛兰Bolt的照片后不愿意购买通用汽车电动汽车。</blockquote> GM is currently 11.9% below its 2021 high close of $63.92, set on June 8. With 7 months since my last analysis, and with the market and the analysts responding favorably to GM’s vision, I am revisiting my rating on GM.<blockquote>通用汽车目前较6月8日创下的2021年收盘价63.92美元低11.9%。距离我上次分析已经过去7个月了，随着市场和分析师对通用汽车的愿景反应良好，我正在重新审视我对通用汽车的评级。</blockquote> Wall Street Consensus Outlook for GM<blockquote>华尔街对通用汽车的共识前景</blockquote> ETrade’s calculation of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using the views of 13 ranked analysts who have issued ratings and price targets for GM within the past 90 days. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus 12-month price target is 27.5% above the current share price. There is a fairly high level of dispersion in the price targets, which&nbsp;reduces confidence&nbsp;in the consensus value. Of the 13 analysts, 12 give GM a buy rating and 1 assigns a neutral rating.<blockquote>ETrade对华尔街共识前景的计算是根据过去90天内发布通用汽车评级和价格目标的13位排名分析师的观点计算得出的。共识评级为看涨，共识12个月目标价比当前股价高出27.5%。价格目标存在相当高的离散度，这降低了对共识价值的信心。在13名分析师中，12名给予通用汽车买入评级，1名给予中性评级。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31b957237cbf2644c75e372831ed0714\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"838\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Wall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for GM (Source: ETrade)<blockquote>华尔街分析师对通用汽车的一致评级和12个月目标价（来源：ETrade）</blockquote> Seeking Alpha’s version of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using ratings and prices targets from 21 analysts. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus price target is 26.7% above the current share price. Only 1 analyst is neutral and the other 20 are bullish.<blockquote>Seeking Alpha版本的华尔街共识前景是使用21位分析师的评级和价格目标计算得出的。一致评级为看涨，一致目标价较当前股价高出26.7%。只有1名分析师持中性态度，其他20名分析师持看涨态度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbd40949c8ccc5a730e0aa07c04e15a8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"645\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Wall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for GM (Source: Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>华尔街分析师对通用汽车的一致评级和12个月目标价（来源：Seeking Alpha）</blockquote> The good news for GM shareholders is that the analysts are almost uniformly bullish on GM and the average 12-month price target is about 27% above the current level. There are somewhat cautionary considerations, however. First, the spread among the price targets is high, which means that there is not a lot of confidence in the outlook. Second, the timing of a share price recovery is hard to predict. The analysts were bullish back in March, as well.<blockquote>对于通用汽车股东来说，好消息是分析师几乎一致看好通用汽车，12个月平均目标价比当前水平高出约27%。然而，也有一些谨慎的考虑。首先，价格目标之间的利差很高，这意味着对前景没有太大信心。其次，股价回升的时机很难预测。分析师在三月份也持乐观态度。</blockquote> Market-Implied Outlook for GM<blockquote>通用汽车的市场隐含前景</blockquote> I have analyzed the prices of call and put options at a range of strike prices, all expiring on January 21, 2022 to generate the market-implied outlook for the next 3.5 months (from today until the expiration date). In my previous analysis, I also calculated a market-implied outlook using options with this expiration date. I have also generated the market-implied outlook to mid 2022, a period of 8.3 months, by analyzing options that expire on June 21, 2022.<blockquote>我分析了一系列执行价格的看涨期权和看跌期权的价格，这些期权都将于2022年1月21日到期，以生成未来3.5个月（从今天到到期日）的市场隐含前景。在我之前的分析中，我还使用具有此到期日的期权计算了市场隐含前景。我还通过分析2022年6月21日到期的期权，生成了2022年中期（8.3个月）的市场隐含前景。</blockquote> The standard presentation of the market-implied outlook is a probability distribution of price return, with probability on the vertical axis and return on the horizontal.<blockquote>市场隐含前景的标准表示是价格回报的概率分布，概率在纵轴，回报在横轴。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd025ceee857934bb5992eb6c234bd6d\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 3.5-month period from today until January 21, 2022 (Source: Author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)<blockquote>从今天到2022年1月21日的3.5个月期间通用汽车的市场隐含价格回报概率（来源：作者使用ETrade期权报价进行计算）</blockquote> The market-implied outlook for GM for the 3.5-month period between now and January 21, 2022 is generally symmetric, although the peak probability is slightly tilted towards negative returns, corresponding to a price return of -1.5%. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 35.7%, quite high for an individual stock.<blockquote>从现在到2022年1月21日的3.5个月期间，通用汽车的市场隐含前景总体上是对称的，尽管峰值概率略有向负回报倾斜，对应的价格回报为-1.5%。这种分布得出的年化波动率为35.7%，对于个股来说相当高。</blockquote> To make it easier to directly compare the probabilities of positive and negative returns, I rotate the negative return side of the distribution about the vertical axis (see chart below).<blockquote>为了更容易直接比较正回报和负回报的概率，我围绕垂直轴旋转分布的负回报侧（见下图）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc3728611fe98a00c0edfa693bae10b4\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 3.5-month period from today until January 21, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)<blockquote>通用汽车从今天到2022年1月21日3.5个月期间的市场隐含价格回报概率。分布的负回报侧已绕垂直轴旋转（来源：作者使用ETrade的期权报价进行计算）</blockquote> This view shows that the probabilities of positive and negative returns are almost identical for most outcomes (the solid blue line and the dashed red line are very close to one another). The exception is for small-magnitude price returns (+/- 5%).<blockquote>这种观点表明，对于大多数结果，正回报和负回报的概率几乎相同（蓝色实线和红色虚线彼此非常接近）。例外情况是小规模价格回报（+/-5%）。</blockquote> Theory predicts that the market-implied outlook will tend to be negatively biased because risk-averse investors pay more than fair value for put options to limit losses in long positions. In the financial literature, the market-implied outlook is often referred to as being risk-neutral. What this means is that the market-implied outlook would be unbiased if investors, in aggregate, were risk-neutral. Investors, collectively, are risk-averse - demanding to be paid a premium to take on risk (the equity risk premium). For this reason, a market-implied outlook with closely matching probabilities between positive and negative returns, as we see here, is actually a slightly bullish view.<blockquote>理论预测，市场隐含的前景将倾向于负面偏差，因为规避风险的投资者为看跌期权支付的价格高于公允价值，以限制多头头寸的损失。在金融文献中，市场隐含的前景通常被称为风险中性的。这意味着，如果投资者总体上风险中性，市场隐含的前景将是无偏见的。总的来说，投资者是规避风险的——要求获得承担风险的溢价（股票风险溢价）。因此，正如我们在这里看到的，正回报和负回报之间概率密切匹配的市场隐含前景实际上是一种稍微看涨的观点。</blockquote> The market-implied outlook to the middle of 2022 (8.3 months), calculated using the prices of call and put options that expire on June 17, 2022, exhibits more of a negative tilt. Qualitative consideration of the potential for a negative bias leads me to characterize this outlook as neutral, perhaps with a slight bearish tilt. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 36.5%.<blockquote>使用2022年6月17日到期的看涨期权和看跌期权价格计算的2022年中期（8.3个月）的市场隐含前景显示出更多的负面倾斜。对潜在负面偏见的定性考虑使我将这种前景描述为中性，也许有轻微的看跌倾向。由此分布得出的年化波动率为36.5%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7731002b4fcd2fbea3e50f32512c507\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 8.3-month period from today until June 17, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)<blockquote>通用汽车从今天到2022年6月17日的8.3个月期间的市场隐含价格回报概率。分布的负回报侧已绕垂直轴旋转（来源：作者使用ETrade的期权报价进行计算）</blockquote> Contrast the current market-implied outlooks for GM with the 10.6-month outlook to January 2022 from my&nbsp;previous analysis&nbsp;in March, which was substantially bearish. In this outlook, the probabilities of negative price returns were much higher relative to those for positive returns. The current market-implied outlook, slightly bullish to early 2022 and neutral to mid-2022, is much more favorable than the outlook from my earlier analysis.<blockquote>将通用汽车当前的市场隐含前景与我之前3月份分析中截至2022年1月的10.6个月前景进行对比，该分析非常悲观。在这种前景中，相对于正回报，负价格回报的概率要高得多。目前市场隐含的前景，2022年初略有看涨，2022年中期中性，比我之前分析的前景要有利得多。</blockquote> Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> GM is at an important transition point in its history. The company needs to rapidly and convincingly shift away from traditional internal combustion vehicles and towards EVs and autonomous vehicles. The Wall Street analysts, as a group, are confident that GM can make strides in this direction and the analyst consensus has gotten more bullish through 2021. The Wall Street consensus rating is bullish, with about 27% expected 12-month price appreciation.<blockquote>通用汽车正处于其历史上的一个重要转折点。该公司需要迅速、令人信服地从传统内燃机汽车转向电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车。华尔街分析师作为一个群体，相信通用汽车能够在这个方向上取得长足进步，并且分析师的共识在2021年变得更加乐观。华尔街一致评级为看涨，约27%的人预计12个月价格将上涨。</blockquote> The projected volatility for GM, calculated from the market-implied outlook, is about 36%. This is a fairly high level of volatility, but looks reasonable if we believe that the expected return is 27%. As a rule of thumb for a buy, I want to see expected return that is at or above ½ of the volatility.<blockquote>根据市场隐含前景计算，通用汽车的预计波动性约为36%。这是一个相当高的波动水平，但如果我们相信预期回报率为27%，那么看起来是合理的。作为买入的经验法则，我希望看到预期回报等于或高于波动率的1/2。</blockquote> Taking the analyst expected return at face value, GM easily surpasses this threshold. The market-implied outlook to early 2022 is slightly bullish, shifting to neutral by mid-2022. The market-implied outlook for GM has improved dramatically since March, when it was significantly bearish. I am changing my rating on GM from neutral to bullish.<blockquote>从分析师的预期回报率来看，通用汽车轻松超过了这一门槛。市场对2022年初的隐含前景略有看涨，到2022年中期将转向中性。自3月份以来，市场对通用汽车的隐含前景已显着改善，当时通用汽车的前景明显看跌。我将对通用汽车的评级从中性改为看涨。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458959-favorable-outlook-for-gm\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458959-favorable-outlook-for-gm","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128736762","content_text":"Summary\n\nGM has struggled with the transition to EVs and other technology-forward efforts.\nThe Wall Street consensus is that GM will succeed sooner rather than later.\nThe market-implied outlook (derived from options prices) has shifted to a substantially more positive near-term view.\nI see GM as having a favorable risk-return profile.\n\nJHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nGeneral Motors(NYSE:GM)seems to be having a moment, with the share price rising 4.5% today, following an inspirational presentation to analysts. The company outlined its plan to be a leader in EVs and a vision for building a million self-driving cars by 2030. For GM, as with Ford(NYSE:F), the company recognizes that earnings growth and share valuation depend on aggressive technology-driven development. If GM can convince the market, and then demonstrate, that there is a real roadmap to higher-margin EVs and self-driving vehicles, the shares should demand a considerably higher price. After all, GM’s forward P/E is 8.8, as compared to TSLA’s 144.8.\nIntriguingly, the Wall Street analysts have already priced an outlook for GM’s transformation. The Wall Street analyst consensus price target for GM has surged to $71.3, as compared to $46.6 in February of 2020, right before COVID hit and $51 at the end of 2020. At the current share price of $56.30, the Wall Street consensus (as calculated by Seeking Alpha) is for 12-month price appreciation of 26.7%.\nWhen I last analyzed GM on March 7, 2021, seven months ago, the Wall Street consensus outlook was already bullish, with a 12-month price target that was about 20% above the share price at that time. Of the 19 analysts included in Seeking Alpha’s consensus outlook, 17 were bullish and 2 were neutral. I assigned GM a neutral rating at that time, largely because the outlook implied by options prices, in contrast to the Wall Street consensus, was bearish. The options market to early 2022 was indicating elevated probabilities of price declines. I compromised between the bullish Wall Street and the bearish options market view with a neutral rating. Since my post was published, GM has gained 4% (including the big rise today), as compared to 15.1% in price appreciation for the S&P 500.\nPerformance of GM vs. the S&P 500 over the past 7 months (Source: Seeking Alpha)\nUsing options prices to build a probabilistic price return outlook is conceptually straightforward. The price of an option represents the market’s consensus estimate for the probability that the price of the underlying stock (GM, in this case) will rise above (call option) or fall below (put option) a specific level (the strike price) between now and when the option expires. By analyzing calls and puts at a range of strike prices and a common expiration date, it is possible to calculate a probabilistic outlook for the underlying security that reconciles the options prices. This is referred to as the market-implied outlook. For readers seeking more information on this approach, I have written an overview post, including links to the relevant financial literature.\nIt is clear today, as it was for my last analysis, that GM is relying on the ability to compete with EVs and autonomous vehicles. The analysts are valuing the company assuming that GM will successfully make this transition. Even if one agrees, the challenge is in the timing. Since March, GM has suffered an expensive and embarrassing setback with the massive recall of Chevy electric vehicles. Even if one buys into management’s vision, one imagines that some car buyers will be reluctant to buy a GM EV after seeing pictures of charred Chevy Bolts.\nGM is currently 11.9% below its 2021 high close of $63.92, set on June 8. With 7 months since my last analysis, and with the market and the analysts responding favorably to GM’s vision, I am revisiting my rating on GM.\nWall Street Consensus Outlook for GM\nETrade’s calculation of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using the views of 13 ranked analysts who have issued ratings and price targets for GM within the past 90 days. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus 12-month price target is 27.5% above the current share price. There is a fairly high level of dispersion in the price targets, which reduces confidence in the consensus value. Of the 13 analysts, 12 give GM a buy rating and 1 assigns a neutral rating.\nWall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for GM (Source: ETrade)\nSeeking Alpha’s version of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using ratings and prices targets from 21 analysts. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus price target is 26.7% above the current share price. Only 1 analyst is neutral and the other 20 are bullish.\nWall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for GM (Source: Seeking Alpha)\nThe good news for GM shareholders is that the analysts are almost uniformly bullish on GM and the average 12-month price target is about 27% above the current level. There are somewhat cautionary considerations, however. First, the spread among the price targets is high, which means that there is not a lot of confidence in the outlook. Second, the timing of a share price recovery is hard to predict. The analysts were bullish back in March, as well.\nMarket-Implied Outlook for GM\nI have analyzed the prices of call and put options at a range of strike prices, all expiring on January 21, 2022 to generate the market-implied outlook for the next 3.5 months (from today until the expiration date). In my previous analysis, I also calculated a market-implied outlook using options with this expiration date. I have also generated the market-implied outlook to mid 2022, a period of 8.3 months, by analyzing options that expire on June 21, 2022.\nThe standard presentation of the market-implied outlook is a probability distribution of price return, with probability on the vertical axis and return on the horizontal.\nMarket-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 3.5-month period from today until January 21, 2022 (Source: Author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)\nThe market-implied outlook for GM for the 3.5-month period between now and January 21, 2022 is generally symmetric, although the peak probability is slightly tilted towards negative returns, corresponding to a price return of -1.5%. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 35.7%, quite high for an individual stock.\nTo make it easier to directly compare the probabilities of positive and negative returns, I rotate the negative return side of the distribution about the vertical axis (see chart below).\nMarket-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 3.5-month period from today until January 21, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)\nThis view shows that the probabilities of positive and negative returns are almost identical for most outcomes (the solid blue line and the dashed red line are very close to one another). The exception is for small-magnitude price returns (+/- 5%).\nTheory predicts that the market-implied outlook will tend to be negatively biased because risk-averse investors pay more than fair value for put options to limit losses in long positions. In the financial literature, the market-implied outlook is often referred to as being risk-neutral. What this means is that the market-implied outlook would be unbiased if investors, in aggregate, were risk-neutral. Investors, collectively, are risk-averse - demanding to be paid a premium to take on risk (the equity risk premium). For this reason, a market-implied outlook with closely matching probabilities between positive and negative returns, as we see here, is actually a slightly bullish view.\nThe market-implied outlook to the middle of 2022 (8.3 months), calculated using the prices of call and put options that expire on June 17, 2022, exhibits more of a negative tilt. Qualitative consideration of the potential for a negative bias leads me to characterize this outlook as neutral, perhaps with a slight bearish tilt. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 36.5%.\nMarket-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 8.3-month period from today until June 17, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)\nContrast the current market-implied outlooks for GM with the 10.6-month outlook to January 2022 from my previous analysis in March, which was substantially bearish. In this outlook, the probabilities of negative price returns were much higher relative to those for positive returns. The current market-implied outlook, slightly bullish to early 2022 and neutral to mid-2022, is much more favorable than the outlook from my earlier analysis.\nSummary\nGM is at an important transition point in its history. The company needs to rapidly and convincingly shift away from traditional internal combustion vehicles and towards EVs and autonomous vehicles. The Wall Street analysts, as a group, are confident that GM can make strides in this direction and the analyst consensus has gotten more bullish through 2021. The Wall Street consensus rating is bullish, with about 27% expected 12-month price appreciation.\nThe projected volatility for GM, calculated from the market-implied outlook, is about 36%. This is a fairly high level of volatility, but looks reasonable if we believe that the expected return is 27%. As a rule of thumb for a buy, I want to see expected return that is at or above ½ of the volatility.\nTaking the analyst expected return at face value, GM easily surpasses this threshold. The market-implied outlook to early 2022 is slightly bullish, shifting to neutral by mid-2022. The market-implied outlook for GM has improved dramatically since March, when it was significantly bearish. I am changing my rating on GM from neutral to bullish.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":821094896,"gmtCreate":1633671018981,"gmtModify":1633671019243,"author":{"id":"4087996122770160","authorId":"4087996122770160","name":"Timevestor","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4087996122770160","idStr":"4087996122770160"},"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821094896","repostId":1128736762,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128736762","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633662653,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1128736762?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 11:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Favorable Outlook For GM<blockquote>通用汽车前景良好</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128736762","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nGM has struggled with the transition to EVs and other technology-forward efforts.\nThe Wall ","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>GM has struggled with the transition to EVs and other technology-forward efforts.</li> <li>The Wall Street consensus is that GM will succeed sooner rather than later.</li> <li>The market-implied outlook (derived from options prices) has shifted to a substantially more positive near-term view.</li> <li>I see GM as having a favorable risk-return profile.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/139e056979d4a81394ff8a2299dd40df\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>通用汽车一直在努力向电动汽车和其他技术前沿的过渡。</li><li>华尔街的共识是通用汽车迟早会成功。</li><li>市场隐含的前景（来自期权价格）已经转向更加积极的近期观点。</li><li>我认为通用汽车具有良好的风险回报状况。</li></ul>JHVEPhoto/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote> General Motors(NYSE:GM)seems to be having a moment, with the share price rising 4.5% today, following an inspirational&nbsp;presentation to analysts. The company outlined its plan to be a leader in EVs and a vision for building a&nbsp;million self-driving cars by 2030. For GM, as with Ford(NYSE:F), the company recognizes that earnings growth and share valuation depend on aggressive technology-driven development. If GM can convince the market, and then demonstrate, that there is a real roadmap to higher-margin EVs and self-driving vehicles, the shares should demand a considerably higher price. After all, GM’s forward P/E is&nbsp;8.8, as compared to TSLA’s&nbsp;144.8.<blockquote>通用汽车(NYSE：GM)似乎迎来了一个时刻，在向分析师做了一次鼓舞人心的演讲后，今天股价上涨了4.5%。该公司概述了成为电动汽车领导者的计划以及到2030年生产100万辆自动驾驶汽车的愿景。对于通用汽车来说，与福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）一样，该公司认识到盈利增长和股票估值取决于积极的技术驱动发展。如果通用汽车能够说服市场，然后证明有一个真正的高利润电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车的路线图，那么该股的价格应该会高得多。毕竟，通用汽车的预期市盈率为8.8，而特斯拉的预期市盈率为144.8。</blockquote> Intriguingly, the Wall Street analysts have already priced an outlook for GM’s transformation. The Wall Street analyst&nbsp;consensus price target&nbsp;for GM has surged to $71.3, as compared to $46.6 in February of 2020, right before COVID hit and $51 at the end of 2020. At the current share price of $56.30, the Wall Street consensus (as calculated by&nbsp;Seeking Alpha) is for 12-month price appreciation of 26.7%.<blockquote>有趣的是，华尔街分析师已经对通用汽车转型的前景进行了定价。华尔街分析师对通用汽车的一致目标价已飙升至71.3美元，而2020年2月新冠疫情爆发前为46.6美元，2020年底为51美元。按目前56.30美元的股价计算，华尔街的共识（由Seeking Alpha计算）是12个月内股价上涨26.7%。</blockquote> When I&nbsp;last analyzed GM on March 7, 2021, seven months ago, the Wall Street consensus outlook was already bullish, with a 12-month price target that was about 20% above the share price at that time. Of the 19 analysts included in Seeking Alpha’s consensus outlook, 17 were bullish and 2 were neutral. I assigned GM a neutral rating at that time, largely because the outlook implied by options prices, in contrast to the Wall Street consensus, was bearish. The options market to early 2022 was indicating elevated probabilities of price declines. I compromised between the bullish Wall Street and the bearish options market view with a neutral rating. Since my post was published, GM has gained 4% (including the big rise today), as compared to 15.1% in price appreciation for the S&amp;P 500.<blockquote>当我上次在7个月前的2021年3月7日分析通用汽车时，华尔街的普遍前景已经看涨，12个月目标价比当时的股价高出约20%。在Seeking Alpha一致展望中的19名分析师中，17名分析师看涨，2名分析师中性。我当时给通用汽车的评级是中性的，主要是因为与华尔街的共识相反，期权价格所暗示的前景是看跌的。截至2022年初的期权市场表明价格下跌的可能性很高。我在看涨华尔街和看跌期权市场观点之间做出了妥协，给予了中性评级。自从我的文章发表以来，通用汽车已经上涨了4%（包括今天的大幅上涨），而标普500的价格上涨了15.1%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c074188d666f33a0849eb28c23242522\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Performance of GM vs. the S&amp;P 500 over the past 7 months (Source: Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>通用汽车与标普500过去7个月的表现（来源：Seeking Alpha）</blockquote> Using options prices to build a probabilistic price return outlook is conceptually straightforward. The price of an option represents the market’s consensus estimate for the probability that the price of the underlying stock (GM, in this case) will rise above (call option) or fall below (put option) a specific level (the strike price) between now and when the option expires. By analyzing calls and puts at a range of strike prices and a common expiration date, it is possible to calculate a probabilistic outlook for the underlying security that reconciles the options prices. This is referred to as the market-implied outlook. For readers seeking more information on this approach, I have written an&nbsp;overview post, including links to the relevant financial literature.<blockquote>使用期权价格来构建概率价格回报前景在概念上很简单。期权价格代表市场对标的股票（在本例中为通用汽车）价格高于（看涨期权期权）或低于（看跌期权）特定水平（执行价格）的概率的一致估计。）从现在到期权到期。通过分析一系列执行价格和共同到期日的评级和看跌期权，可以计算出与期权价格相一致的基础证券的概率前景。这被称为市场隐含前景。对于寻求更多关于这种方法的信息的读者，我写了一篇概述文章，包括相关金融文献的链接。</blockquote> It is clear today, as it was for my last analysis, that GM is relying on the ability to compete with EVs and autonomous vehicles. The analysts are valuing the company assuming that GM will successfully make this transition. Even if one agrees, the challenge is in the timing. Since March, GM has suffered an expensive and embarrassing setback with the&nbsp;massive recall&nbsp;of Chevy electric vehicles. Even if one buys into management’s vision, one imagines that some car buyers will be reluctant to buy a GM EV after seeing pictures of&nbsp;charred Chevy Bolts.<blockquote>今天很明显，正如我上次的分析一样，通用汽车依靠的是与电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车竞争的能力。分析师对该公司进行估值时假设通用汽车将成功实现这一转型。即使有人同意，挑战也在于时机。自3月份以来，通用汽车因大规模召回雪佛兰电动汽车而遭受了代价高昂且令人尴尬的挫折。即使人们相信管理层的愿景，人们也会想象一些购车者在看到烧焦的雪佛兰Bolt的照片后不愿意购买通用汽车电动汽车。</blockquote> GM is currently 11.9% below its 2021 high close of $63.92, set on June 8. With 7 months since my last analysis, and with the market and the analysts responding favorably to GM’s vision, I am revisiting my rating on GM.<blockquote>通用汽车目前较6月8日创下的2021年收盘价63.92美元低11.9%。距离我上次分析已经过去7个月了，随着市场和分析师对通用汽车的愿景反应良好，我正在重新审视我对通用汽车的评级。</blockquote> Wall Street Consensus Outlook for GM<blockquote>华尔街对通用汽车的共识前景</blockquote> ETrade’s calculation of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using the views of 13 ranked analysts who have issued ratings and price targets for GM within the past 90 days. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus 12-month price target is 27.5% above the current share price. There is a fairly high level of dispersion in the price targets, which&nbsp;reduces confidence&nbsp;in the consensus value. Of the 13 analysts, 12 give GM a buy rating and 1 assigns a neutral rating.<blockquote>ETrade对华尔街共识前景的计算是根据过去90天内发布通用汽车评级和价格目标的13位排名分析师的观点计算得出的。共识评级为看涨，共识12个月目标价比当前股价高出27.5%。价格目标存在相当高的离散度，这降低了对共识价值的信心。在13名分析师中，12名给予通用汽车买入评级，1名给予中性评级。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31b957237cbf2644c75e372831ed0714\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"838\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Wall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for GM (Source: ETrade)<blockquote>华尔街分析师对通用汽车的一致评级和12个月目标价（来源：ETrade）</blockquote> Seeking Alpha’s version of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using ratings and prices targets from 21 analysts. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus price target is 26.7% above the current share price. Only 1 analyst is neutral and the other 20 are bullish.<blockquote>Seeking Alpha版本的华尔街共识前景是使用21位分析师的评级和价格目标计算得出的。一致评级为看涨，一致目标价较当前股价高出26.7%。只有1名分析师持中性态度，其他20名分析师持看涨态度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbd40949c8ccc5a730e0aa07c04e15a8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"645\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Wall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for GM (Source: Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>华尔街分析师对通用汽车的一致评级和12个月目标价（来源：Seeking Alpha）</blockquote> The good news for GM shareholders is that the analysts are almost uniformly bullish on GM and the average 12-month price target is about 27% above the current level. There are somewhat cautionary considerations, however. First, the spread among the price targets is high, which means that there is not a lot of confidence in the outlook. Second, the timing of a share price recovery is hard to predict. The analysts were bullish back in March, as well.<blockquote>对于通用汽车股东来说，好消息是分析师几乎一致看好通用汽车，12个月平均目标价比当前水平高出约27%。然而，也有一些谨慎的考虑。首先，价格目标之间的利差很高，这意味着对前景没有太大信心。其次，股价回升的时机很难预测。分析师在三月份也持乐观态度。</blockquote> Market-Implied Outlook for GM<blockquote>通用汽车的市场隐含前景</blockquote> I have analyzed the prices of call and put options at a range of strike prices, all expiring on January 21, 2022 to generate the market-implied outlook for the next 3.5 months (from today until the expiration date). In my previous analysis, I also calculated a market-implied outlook using options with this expiration date. I have also generated the market-implied outlook to mid 2022, a period of 8.3 months, by analyzing options that expire on June 21, 2022.<blockquote>我分析了一系列执行价格的看涨期权和看跌期权的价格，这些期权都将于2022年1月21日到期，以生成未来3.5个月（从今天到到期日）的市场隐含前景。在我之前的分析中，我还使用具有此到期日的期权计算了市场隐含前景。我还通过分析2022年6月21日到期的期权，生成了2022年中期（8.3个月）的市场隐含前景。</blockquote> The standard presentation of the market-implied outlook is a probability distribution of price return, with probability on the vertical axis and return on the horizontal.<blockquote>市场隐含前景的标准表示是价格回报的概率分布，概率在纵轴，回报在横轴。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd025ceee857934bb5992eb6c234bd6d\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 3.5-month period from today until January 21, 2022 (Source: Author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)<blockquote>从今天到2022年1月21日的3.5个月期间通用汽车的市场隐含价格回报概率（来源：作者使用ETrade期权报价进行计算）</blockquote> The market-implied outlook for GM for the 3.5-month period between now and January 21, 2022 is generally symmetric, although the peak probability is slightly tilted towards negative returns, corresponding to a price return of -1.5%. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 35.7%, quite high for an individual stock.<blockquote>从现在到2022年1月21日的3.5个月期间，通用汽车的市场隐含前景总体上是对称的，尽管峰值概率略有向负回报倾斜，对应的价格回报为-1.5%。这种分布得出的年化波动率为35.7%，对于个股来说相当高。</blockquote> To make it easier to directly compare the probabilities of positive and negative returns, I rotate the negative return side of the distribution about the vertical axis (see chart below).<blockquote>为了更容易直接比较正回报和负回报的概率，我围绕垂直轴旋转分布的负回报侧（见下图）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc3728611fe98a00c0edfa693bae10b4\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 3.5-month period from today until January 21, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)<blockquote>通用汽车从今天到2022年1月21日3.5个月期间的市场隐含价格回报概率。分布的负回报侧已绕垂直轴旋转（来源：作者使用ETrade的期权报价进行计算）</blockquote> This view shows that the probabilities of positive and negative returns are almost identical for most outcomes (the solid blue line and the dashed red line are very close to one another). The exception is for small-magnitude price returns (+/- 5%).<blockquote>这种观点表明，对于大多数结果，正回报和负回报的概率几乎相同（蓝色实线和红色虚线彼此非常接近）。例外情况是小规模价格回报（+/-5%）。</blockquote> Theory predicts that the market-implied outlook will tend to be negatively biased because risk-averse investors pay more than fair value for put options to limit losses in long positions. In the financial literature, the market-implied outlook is often referred to as being risk-neutral. What this means is that the market-implied outlook would be unbiased if investors, in aggregate, were risk-neutral. Investors, collectively, are risk-averse - demanding to be paid a premium to take on risk (the equity risk premium). For this reason, a market-implied outlook with closely matching probabilities between positive and negative returns, as we see here, is actually a slightly bullish view.<blockquote>理论预测，市场隐含的前景将倾向于负面偏差，因为规避风险的投资者为看跌期权支付的价格高于公允价值，以限制多头头寸的损失。在金融文献中，市场隐含的前景通常被称为风险中性的。这意味着，如果投资者总体上风险中性，市场隐含的前景将是无偏见的。总的来说，投资者是规避风险的——要求获得承担风险的溢价（股票风险溢价）。因此，正如我们在这里看到的，正回报和负回报之间概率密切匹配的市场隐含前景实际上是一种稍微看涨的观点。</blockquote> The market-implied outlook to the middle of 2022 (8.3 months), calculated using the prices of call and put options that expire on June 17, 2022, exhibits more of a negative tilt. Qualitative consideration of the potential for a negative bias leads me to characterize this outlook as neutral, perhaps with a slight bearish tilt. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 36.5%.<blockquote>使用2022年6月17日到期的看涨期权和看跌期权价格计算的2022年中期（8.3个月）的市场隐含前景显示出更多的负面倾斜。对潜在负面偏见的定性考虑使我将这种前景描述为中性，也许有轻微的看跌倾向。由此分布得出的年化波动率为36.5%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7731002b4fcd2fbea3e50f32512c507\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 8.3-month period from today until June 17, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)<blockquote>通用汽车从今天到2022年6月17日的8.3个月期间的市场隐含价格回报概率。分布的负回报侧已绕垂直轴旋转（来源：作者使用ETrade的期权报价进行计算）</blockquote> Contrast the current market-implied outlooks for GM with the 10.6-month outlook to January 2022 from my&nbsp;previous analysis&nbsp;in March, which was substantially bearish. In this outlook, the probabilities of negative price returns were much higher relative to those for positive returns. The current market-implied outlook, slightly bullish to early 2022 and neutral to mid-2022, is much more favorable than the outlook from my earlier analysis.<blockquote>将通用汽车当前的市场隐含前景与我之前3月份分析中截至2022年1月的10.6个月前景进行对比，该分析非常悲观。在这种前景中，相对于正回报，负价格回报的概率要高得多。目前市场隐含的前景，2022年初略有看涨，2022年中期中性，比我之前分析的前景要有利得多。</blockquote> Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> GM is at an important transition point in its history. The company needs to rapidly and convincingly shift away from traditional internal combustion vehicles and towards EVs and autonomous vehicles. The Wall Street analysts, as a group, are confident that GM can make strides in this direction and the analyst consensus has gotten more bullish through 2021. The Wall Street consensus rating is bullish, with about 27% expected 12-month price appreciation.<blockquote>通用汽车正处于其历史上的一个重要转折点。该公司需要迅速、令人信服地从传统内燃机汽车转向电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车。华尔街分析师作为一个群体，相信通用汽车能够在这个方向上取得长足进步，并且分析师的共识在2021年变得更加乐观。华尔街一致评级为看涨，约27%的人预计12个月价格将上涨。</blockquote> The projected volatility for GM, calculated from the market-implied outlook, is about 36%. This is a fairly high level of volatility, but looks reasonable if we believe that the expected return is 27%. As a rule of thumb for a buy, I want to see expected return that is at or above ½ of the volatility.<blockquote>根据市场隐含前景计算，通用汽车的预计波动性约为36%。这是一个相当高的波动水平，但如果我们相信预期回报率为27%，那么看起来是合理的。作为买入的经验法则，我希望看到预期回报等于或高于波动率的1/2。</blockquote> Taking the analyst expected return at face value, GM easily surpasses this threshold. The market-implied outlook to early 2022 is slightly bullish, shifting to neutral by mid-2022. The market-implied outlook for GM has improved dramatically since March, when it was significantly bearish. I am changing my rating on GM from neutral to bullish.<blockquote>从分析师的预期回报率来看，通用汽车轻松超过了这一门槛。市场对2022年初的隐含前景略有看涨，到2022年中期将转向中性。自3月份以来，市场对通用汽车的隐含前景已显着改善，当时通用汽车的前景明显看跌。我将对通用汽车的评级从中性改为看涨。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Favorable Outlook For GM<blockquote>通用汽车前景良好</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFavorable Outlook For GM<blockquote>通用汽车前景良好</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-10-08 11:10\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>GM has struggled with the transition to EVs and other technology-forward efforts.</li> <li>The Wall Street consensus is that GM will succeed sooner rather than later.</li> <li>The market-implied outlook (derived from options prices) has shifted to a substantially more positive near-term view.</li> <li>I see GM as having a favorable risk-return profile.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/139e056979d4a81394ff8a2299dd40df\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>通用汽车一直在努力向电动汽车和其他技术前沿的过渡。</li><li>华尔街的共识是通用汽车迟早会成功。</li><li>市场隐含的前景（来自期权价格）已经转向更加积极的近期观点。</li><li>我认为通用汽车具有良好的风险回报状况。</li></ul>JHVEPhoto/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote> General Motors(NYSE:GM)seems to be having a moment, with the share price rising 4.5% today, following an inspirational&nbsp;presentation to analysts. The company outlined its plan to be a leader in EVs and a vision for building a&nbsp;million self-driving cars by 2030. For GM, as with Ford(NYSE:F), the company recognizes that earnings growth and share valuation depend on aggressive technology-driven development. If GM can convince the market, and then demonstrate, that there is a real roadmap to higher-margin EVs and self-driving vehicles, the shares should demand a considerably higher price. After all, GM’s forward P/E is&nbsp;8.8, as compared to TSLA’s&nbsp;144.8.<blockquote>通用汽车(NYSE：GM)似乎迎来了一个时刻，在向分析师做了一次鼓舞人心的演讲后，今天股价上涨了4.5%。该公司概述了成为电动汽车领导者的计划以及到2030年生产100万辆自动驾驶汽车的愿景。对于通用汽车来说，与福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）一样，该公司认识到盈利增长和股票估值取决于积极的技术驱动发展。如果通用汽车能够说服市场，然后证明有一个真正的高利润电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车的路线图，那么该股的价格应该会高得多。毕竟，通用汽车的预期市盈率为8.8，而特斯拉的预期市盈率为144.8。</blockquote> Intriguingly, the Wall Street analysts have already priced an outlook for GM’s transformation. The Wall Street analyst&nbsp;consensus price target&nbsp;for GM has surged to $71.3, as compared to $46.6 in February of 2020, right before COVID hit and $51 at the end of 2020. At the current share price of $56.30, the Wall Street consensus (as calculated by&nbsp;Seeking Alpha) is for 12-month price appreciation of 26.7%.<blockquote>有趣的是，华尔街分析师已经对通用汽车转型的前景进行了定价。华尔街分析师对通用汽车的一致目标价已飙升至71.3美元，而2020年2月新冠疫情爆发前为46.6美元，2020年底为51美元。按目前56.30美元的股价计算，华尔街的共识（由Seeking Alpha计算）是12个月内股价上涨26.7%。</blockquote> When I&nbsp;last analyzed GM on March 7, 2021, seven months ago, the Wall Street consensus outlook was already bullish, with a 12-month price target that was about 20% above the share price at that time. Of the 19 analysts included in Seeking Alpha’s consensus outlook, 17 were bullish and 2 were neutral. I assigned GM a neutral rating at that time, largely because the outlook implied by options prices, in contrast to the Wall Street consensus, was bearish. The options market to early 2022 was indicating elevated probabilities of price declines. I compromised between the bullish Wall Street and the bearish options market view with a neutral rating. Since my post was published, GM has gained 4% (including the big rise today), as compared to 15.1% in price appreciation for the S&amp;P 500.<blockquote>当我上次在7个月前的2021年3月7日分析通用汽车时，华尔街的普遍前景已经看涨，12个月目标价比当时的股价高出约20%。在Seeking Alpha一致展望中的19名分析师中，17名分析师看涨，2名分析师中性。我当时给通用汽车的评级是中性的，主要是因为与华尔街的共识相反，期权价格所暗示的前景是看跌的。截至2022年初的期权市场表明价格下跌的可能性很高。我在看涨华尔街和看跌期权市场观点之间做出了妥协，给予了中性评级。自从我的文章发表以来，通用汽车已经上涨了4%（包括今天的大幅上涨），而标普500的价格上涨了15.1%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c074188d666f33a0849eb28c23242522\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Performance of GM vs. the S&amp;P 500 over the past 7 months (Source: Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>通用汽车与标普500过去7个月的表现（来源：Seeking Alpha）</blockquote> Using options prices to build a probabilistic price return outlook is conceptually straightforward. The price of an option represents the market’s consensus estimate for the probability that the price of the underlying stock (GM, in this case) will rise above (call option) or fall below (put option) a specific level (the strike price) between now and when the option expires. By analyzing calls and puts at a range of strike prices and a common expiration date, it is possible to calculate a probabilistic outlook for the underlying security that reconciles the options prices. This is referred to as the market-implied outlook. For readers seeking more information on this approach, I have written an&nbsp;overview post, including links to the relevant financial literature.<blockquote>使用期权价格来构建概率价格回报前景在概念上很简单。期权价格代表市场对标的股票（在本例中为通用汽车）价格高于（看涨期权期权）或低于（看跌期权）特定水平（执行价格）的概率的一致估计。）从现在到期权到期。通过分析一系列执行价格和共同到期日的评级和看跌期权，可以计算出与期权价格相一致的基础证券的概率前景。这被称为市场隐含前景。对于寻求更多关于这种方法的信息的读者，我写了一篇概述文章，包括相关金融文献的链接。</blockquote> It is clear today, as it was for my last analysis, that GM is relying on the ability to compete with EVs and autonomous vehicles. The analysts are valuing the company assuming that GM will successfully make this transition. Even if one agrees, the challenge is in the timing. Since March, GM has suffered an expensive and embarrassing setback with the&nbsp;massive recall&nbsp;of Chevy electric vehicles. Even if one buys into management’s vision, one imagines that some car buyers will be reluctant to buy a GM EV after seeing pictures of&nbsp;charred Chevy Bolts.<blockquote>今天很明显，正如我上次的分析一样，通用汽车依靠的是与电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车竞争的能力。分析师对该公司进行估值时假设通用汽车将成功实现这一转型。即使有人同意，挑战也在于时机。自3月份以来，通用汽车因大规模召回雪佛兰电动汽车而遭受了代价高昂且令人尴尬的挫折。即使人们相信管理层的愿景，人们也会想象一些购车者在看到烧焦的雪佛兰Bolt的照片后不愿意购买通用汽车电动汽车。</blockquote> GM is currently 11.9% below its 2021 high close of $63.92, set on June 8. With 7 months since my last analysis, and with the market and the analysts responding favorably to GM’s vision, I am revisiting my rating on GM.<blockquote>通用汽车目前较6月8日创下的2021年收盘价63.92美元低11.9%。距离我上次分析已经过去7个月了，随着市场和分析师对通用汽车的愿景反应良好，我正在重新审视我对通用汽车的评级。</blockquote> Wall Street Consensus Outlook for GM<blockquote>华尔街对通用汽车的共识前景</blockquote> ETrade’s calculation of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using the views of 13 ranked analysts who have issued ratings and price targets for GM within the past 90 days. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus 12-month price target is 27.5% above the current share price. There is a fairly high level of dispersion in the price targets, which&nbsp;reduces confidence&nbsp;in the consensus value. Of the 13 analysts, 12 give GM a buy rating and 1 assigns a neutral rating.<blockquote>ETrade对华尔街共识前景的计算是根据过去90天内发布通用汽车评级和价格目标的13位排名分析师的观点计算得出的。共识评级为看涨，共识12个月目标价比当前股价高出27.5%。价格目标存在相当高的离散度，这降低了对共识价值的信心。在13名分析师中，12名给予通用汽车买入评级，1名给予中性评级。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31b957237cbf2644c75e372831ed0714\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"838\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Wall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for GM (Source: ETrade)<blockquote>华尔街分析师对通用汽车的一致评级和12个月目标价（来源：ETrade）</blockquote> Seeking Alpha’s version of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using ratings and prices targets from 21 analysts. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus price target is 26.7% above the current share price. Only 1 analyst is neutral and the other 20 are bullish.<blockquote>Seeking Alpha版本的华尔街共识前景是使用21位分析师的评级和价格目标计算得出的。一致评级为看涨，一致目标价较当前股价高出26.7%。只有1名分析师持中性态度，其他20名分析师持看涨态度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbd40949c8ccc5a730e0aa07c04e15a8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"645\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Wall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for GM (Source: Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>华尔街分析师对通用汽车的一致评级和12个月目标价（来源：Seeking Alpha）</blockquote> The good news for GM shareholders is that the analysts are almost uniformly bullish on GM and the average 12-month price target is about 27% above the current level. There are somewhat cautionary considerations, however. First, the spread among the price targets is high, which means that there is not a lot of confidence in the outlook. Second, the timing of a share price recovery is hard to predict. The analysts were bullish back in March, as well.<blockquote>对于通用汽车股东来说，好消息是分析师几乎一致看好通用汽车，12个月平均目标价比当前水平高出约27%。然而，也有一些谨慎的考虑。首先，价格目标之间的利差很高，这意味着对前景没有太大信心。其次，股价回升的时机很难预测。分析师在三月份也持乐观态度。</blockquote> Market-Implied Outlook for GM<blockquote>通用汽车的市场隐含前景</blockquote> I have analyzed the prices of call and put options at a range of strike prices, all expiring on January 21, 2022 to generate the market-implied outlook for the next 3.5 months (from today until the expiration date). In my previous analysis, I also calculated a market-implied outlook using options with this expiration date. I have also generated the market-implied outlook to mid 2022, a period of 8.3 months, by analyzing options that expire on June 21, 2022.<blockquote>我分析了一系列执行价格的看涨期权和看跌期权的价格，这些期权都将于2022年1月21日到期，以生成未来3.5个月（从今天到到期日）的市场隐含前景。在我之前的分析中，我还使用具有此到期日的期权计算了市场隐含前景。我还通过分析2022年6月21日到期的期权，生成了2022年中期（8.3个月）的市场隐含前景。</blockquote> The standard presentation of the market-implied outlook is a probability distribution of price return, with probability on the vertical axis and return on the horizontal.<blockquote>市场隐含前景的标准表示是价格回报的概率分布，概率在纵轴，回报在横轴。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd025ceee857934bb5992eb6c234bd6d\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 3.5-month period from today until January 21, 2022 (Source: Author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)<blockquote>从今天到2022年1月21日的3.5个月期间通用汽车的市场隐含价格回报概率（来源：作者使用ETrade期权报价进行计算）</blockquote> The market-implied outlook for GM for the 3.5-month period between now and January 21, 2022 is generally symmetric, although the peak probability is slightly tilted towards negative returns, corresponding to a price return of -1.5%. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 35.7%, quite high for an individual stock.<blockquote>从现在到2022年1月21日的3.5个月期间，通用汽车的市场隐含前景总体上是对称的，尽管峰值概率略有向负回报倾斜，对应的价格回报为-1.5%。这种分布得出的年化波动率为35.7%，对于个股来说相当高。</blockquote> To make it easier to directly compare the probabilities of positive and negative returns, I rotate the negative return side of the distribution about the vertical axis (see chart below).<blockquote>为了更容易直接比较正回报和负回报的概率，我围绕垂直轴旋转分布的负回报侧（见下图）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc3728611fe98a00c0edfa693bae10b4\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 3.5-month period from today until January 21, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)<blockquote>通用汽车从今天到2022年1月21日3.5个月期间的市场隐含价格回报概率。分布的负回报侧已绕垂直轴旋转（来源：作者使用ETrade的期权报价进行计算）</blockquote> This view shows that the probabilities of positive and negative returns are almost identical for most outcomes (the solid blue line and the dashed red line are very close to one another). The exception is for small-magnitude price returns (+/- 5%).<blockquote>这种观点表明，对于大多数结果，正回报和负回报的概率几乎相同（蓝色实线和红色虚线彼此非常接近）。例外情况是小规模价格回报（+/-5%）。</blockquote> Theory predicts that the market-implied outlook will tend to be negatively biased because risk-averse investors pay more than fair value for put options to limit losses in long positions. In the financial literature, the market-implied outlook is often referred to as being risk-neutral. What this means is that the market-implied outlook would be unbiased if investors, in aggregate, were risk-neutral. Investors, collectively, are risk-averse - demanding to be paid a premium to take on risk (the equity risk premium). For this reason, a market-implied outlook with closely matching probabilities between positive and negative returns, as we see here, is actually a slightly bullish view.<blockquote>理论预测，市场隐含的前景将倾向于负面偏差，因为规避风险的投资者为看跌期权支付的价格高于公允价值，以限制多头头寸的损失。在金融文献中，市场隐含的前景通常被称为风险中性的。这意味着，如果投资者总体上风险中性，市场隐含的前景将是无偏见的。总的来说，投资者是规避风险的——要求获得承担风险的溢价（股票风险溢价）。因此，正如我们在这里看到的，正回报和负回报之间概率密切匹配的市场隐含前景实际上是一种稍微看涨的观点。</blockquote> The market-implied outlook to the middle of 2022 (8.3 months), calculated using the prices of call and put options that expire on June 17, 2022, exhibits more of a negative tilt. Qualitative consideration of the potential for a negative bias leads me to characterize this outlook as neutral, perhaps with a slight bearish tilt. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 36.5%.<blockquote>使用2022年6月17日到期的看涨期权和看跌期权价格计算的2022年中期（8.3个月）的市场隐含前景显示出更多的负面倾斜。对潜在负面偏见的定性考虑使我将这种前景描述为中性，也许有轻微的看跌倾向。由此分布得出的年化波动率为36.5%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7731002b4fcd2fbea3e50f32512c507\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 8.3-month period from today until June 17, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)<blockquote>通用汽车从今天到2022年6月17日的8.3个月期间的市场隐含价格回报概率。分布的负回报侧已绕垂直轴旋转（来源：作者使用ETrade的期权报价进行计算）</blockquote> Contrast the current market-implied outlooks for GM with the 10.6-month outlook to January 2022 from my&nbsp;previous analysis&nbsp;in March, which was substantially bearish. In this outlook, the probabilities of negative price returns were much higher relative to those for positive returns. The current market-implied outlook, slightly bullish to early 2022 and neutral to mid-2022, is much more favorable than the outlook from my earlier analysis.<blockquote>将通用汽车当前的市场隐含前景与我之前3月份分析中截至2022年1月的10.6个月前景进行对比，该分析非常悲观。在这种前景中，相对于正回报，负价格回报的概率要高得多。目前市场隐含的前景，2022年初略有看涨，2022年中期中性，比我之前分析的前景要有利得多。</blockquote> Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> GM is at an important transition point in its history. The company needs to rapidly and convincingly shift away from traditional internal combustion vehicles and towards EVs and autonomous vehicles. The Wall Street analysts, as a group, are confident that GM can make strides in this direction and the analyst consensus has gotten more bullish through 2021. The Wall Street consensus rating is bullish, with about 27% expected 12-month price appreciation.<blockquote>通用汽车正处于其历史上的一个重要转折点。该公司需要迅速、令人信服地从传统内燃机汽车转向电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车。华尔街分析师作为一个群体，相信通用汽车能够在这个方向上取得长足进步，并且分析师的共识在2021年变得更加乐观。华尔街一致评级为看涨，约27%的人预计12个月价格将上涨。</blockquote> The projected volatility for GM, calculated from the market-implied outlook, is about 36%. This is a fairly high level of volatility, but looks reasonable if we believe that the expected return is 27%. As a rule of thumb for a buy, I want to see expected return that is at or above ½ of the volatility.<blockquote>根据市场隐含前景计算，通用汽车的预计波动性约为36%。这是一个相当高的波动水平，但如果我们相信预期回报率为27%，那么看起来是合理的。作为买入的经验法则，我希望看到预期回报等于或高于波动率的1/2。</blockquote> Taking the analyst expected return at face value, GM easily surpasses this threshold. The market-implied outlook to early 2022 is slightly bullish, shifting to neutral by mid-2022. The market-implied outlook for GM has improved dramatically since March, when it was significantly bearish. I am changing my rating on GM from neutral to bullish.<blockquote>从分析师的预期回报率来看，通用汽车轻松超过了这一门槛。市场对2022年初的隐含前景略有看涨，到2022年中期将转向中性。自3月份以来，市场对通用汽车的隐含前景已显着改善，当时通用汽车的前景明显看跌。我将对通用汽车的评级从中性改为看涨。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458959-favorable-outlook-for-gm\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458959-favorable-outlook-for-gm","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128736762","content_text":"Summary\n\nGM has struggled with the transition to EVs and other technology-forward efforts.\nThe Wall Street consensus is that GM will succeed sooner rather than later.\nThe market-implied outlook (derived from options prices) has shifted to a substantially more positive near-term view.\nI see GM as having a favorable risk-return profile.\n\nJHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nGeneral Motors(NYSE:GM)seems to be having a moment, with the share price rising 4.5% today, following an inspirational presentation to analysts. The company outlined its plan to be a leader in EVs and a vision for building a million self-driving cars by 2030. For GM, as with Ford(NYSE:F), the company recognizes that earnings growth and share valuation depend on aggressive technology-driven development. If GM can convince the market, and then demonstrate, that there is a real roadmap to higher-margin EVs and self-driving vehicles, the shares should demand a considerably higher price. After all, GM’s forward P/E is 8.8, as compared to TSLA’s 144.8.\nIntriguingly, the Wall Street analysts have already priced an outlook for GM’s transformation. The Wall Street analyst consensus price target for GM has surged to $71.3, as compared to $46.6 in February of 2020, right before COVID hit and $51 at the end of 2020. At the current share price of $56.30, the Wall Street consensus (as calculated by Seeking Alpha) is for 12-month price appreciation of 26.7%.\nWhen I last analyzed GM on March 7, 2021, seven months ago, the Wall Street consensus outlook was already bullish, with a 12-month price target that was about 20% above the share price at that time. Of the 19 analysts included in Seeking Alpha’s consensus outlook, 17 were bullish and 2 were neutral. I assigned GM a neutral rating at that time, largely because the outlook implied by options prices, in contrast to the Wall Street consensus, was bearish. The options market to early 2022 was indicating elevated probabilities of price declines. I compromised between the bullish Wall Street and the bearish options market view with a neutral rating. Since my post was published, GM has gained 4% (including the big rise today), as compared to 15.1% in price appreciation for the S&P 500.\nPerformance of GM vs. the S&P 500 over the past 7 months (Source: Seeking Alpha)\nUsing options prices to build a probabilistic price return outlook is conceptually straightforward. The price of an option represents the market’s consensus estimate for the probability that the price of the underlying stock (GM, in this case) will rise above (call option) or fall below (put option) a specific level (the strike price) between now and when the option expires. By analyzing calls and puts at a range of strike prices and a common expiration date, it is possible to calculate a probabilistic outlook for the underlying security that reconciles the options prices. This is referred to as the market-implied outlook. For readers seeking more information on this approach, I have written an overview post, including links to the relevant financial literature.\nIt is clear today, as it was for my last analysis, that GM is relying on the ability to compete with EVs and autonomous vehicles. The analysts are valuing the company assuming that GM will successfully make this transition. Even if one agrees, the challenge is in the timing. Since March, GM has suffered an expensive and embarrassing setback with the massive recall of Chevy electric vehicles. Even if one buys into management’s vision, one imagines that some car buyers will be reluctant to buy a GM EV after seeing pictures of charred Chevy Bolts.\nGM is currently 11.9% below its 2021 high close of $63.92, set on June 8. With 7 months since my last analysis, and with the market and the analysts responding favorably to GM’s vision, I am revisiting my rating on GM.\nWall Street Consensus Outlook for GM\nETrade’s calculation of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using the views of 13 ranked analysts who have issued ratings and price targets for GM within the past 90 days. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus 12-month price target is 27.5% above the current share price. There is a fairly high level of dispersion in the price targets, which reduces confidence in the consensus value. Of the 13 analysts, 12 give GM a buy rating and 1 assigns a neutral rating.\nWall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for GM (Source: ETrade)\nSeeking Alpha’s version of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using ratings and prices targets from 21 analysts. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus price target is 26.7% above the current share price. Only 1 analyst is neutral and the other 20 are bullish.\nWall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for GM (Source: Seeking Alpha)\nThe good news for GM shareholders is that the analysts are almost uniformly bullish on GM and the average 12-month price target is about 27% above the current level. There are somewhat cautionary considerations, however. First, the spread among the price targets is high, which means that there is not a lot of confidence in the outlook. Second, the timing of a share price recovery is hard to predict. The analysts were bullish back in March, as well.\nMarket-Implied Outlook for GM\nI have analyzed the prices of call and put options at a range of strike prices, all expiring on January 21, 2022 to generate the market-implied outlook for the next 3.5 months (from today until the expiration date). In my previous analysis, I also calculated a market-implied outlook using options with this expiration date. I have also generated the market-implied outlook to mid 2022, a period of 8.3 months, by analyzing options that expire on June 21, 2022.\nThe standard presentation of the market-implied outlook is a probability distribution of price return, with probability on the vertical axis and return on the horizontal.\nMarket-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 3.5-month period from today until January 21, 2022 (Source: Author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)\nThe market-implied outlook for GM for the 3.5-month period between now and January 21, 2022 is generally symmetric, although the peak probability is slightly tilted towards negative returns, corresponding to a price return of -1.5%. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 35.7%, quite high for an individual stock.\nTo make it easier to directly compare the probabilities of positive and negative returns, I rotate the negative return side of the distribution about the vertical axis (see chart below).\nMarket-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 3.5-month period from today until January 21, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)\nThis view shows that the probabilities of positive and negative returns are almost identical for most outcomes (the solid blue line and the dashed red line are very close to one another). The exception is for small-magnitude price returns (+/- 5%).\nTheory predicts that the market-implied outlook will tend to be negatively biased because risk-averse investors pay more than fair value for put options to limit losses in long positions. In the financial literature, the market-implied outlook is often referred to as being risk-neutral. What this means is that the market-implied outlook would be unbiased if investors, in aggregate, were risk-neutral. Investors, collectively, are risk-averse - demanding to be paid a premium to take on risk (the equity risk premium). For this reason, a market-implied outlook with closely matching probabilities between positive and negative returns, as we see here, is actually a slightly bullish view.\nThe market-implied outlook to the middle of 2022 (8.3 months), calculated using the prices of call and put options that expire on June 17, 2022, exhibits more of a negative tilt. Qualitative consideration of the potential for a negative bias leads me to characterize this outlook as neutral, perhaps with a slight bearish tilt. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 36.5%.\nMarket-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 8.3-month period from today until June 17, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)\nContrast the current market-implied outlooks for GM with the 10.6-month outlook to January 2022 from my previous analysis in March, which was substantially bearish. In this outlook, the probabilities of negative price returns were much higher relative to those for positive returns. The current market-implied outlook, slightly bullish to early 2022 and neutral to mid-2022, is much more favorable than the outlook from my earlier analysis.\nSummary\nGM is at an important transition point in its history. The company needs to rapidly and convincingly shift away from traditional internal combustion vehicles and towards EVs and autonomous vehicles. The Wall Street analysts, as a group, are confident that GM can make strides in this direction and the analyst consensus has gotten more bullish through 2021. The Wall Street consensus rating is bullish, with about 27% expected 12-month price appreciation.\nThe projected volatility for GM, calculated from the market-implied outlook, is about 36%. This is a fairly high level of volatility, but looks reasonable if we believe that the expected return is 27%. As a rule of thumb for a buy, I want to see expected return that is at or above ½ of the volatility.\nTaking the analyst expected return at face value, GM easily surpasses this threshold. The market-implied outlook to early 2022 is slightly bullish, shifting to neutral by mid-2022. The market-implied outlook for GM has improved dramatically since March, when it was significantly bearish. I am changing my rating on GM from neutral to bullish.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6130783,"gmtCreate":1633671967336,"gmtModify":1634718773484,"authorId":3567411499210880,"author":{"id":3567411499210880,"idStr":"3567411499210880","authorId":3567411499210880,"name":"Nebhol","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0bfc2a45b91e41a283614268857b3a5","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":821094896,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Like","text":"Like","html":"Like"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":821002037,"gmtCreate":1633669602422,"gmtModify":1633669602510,"author":{"id":"3584845105860173","authorId":"3584845105860173","name":"Shawnn_13","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3584845105860173","idStr":"3584845105860173"},"htmlText":"lol","listText":"lol","text":"lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821002037","repostId":1128736762,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128736762","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633662653,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1128736762?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 11:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Favorable Outlook For GM<blockquote>通用汽车前景良好</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128736762","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nGM has struggled with the transition to EVs and other technology-forward efforts.\nThe Wall ","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>GM has struggled with the transition to EVs and other technology-forward efforts.</li> <li>The Wall Street consensus is that GM will succeed sooner rather than later.</li> <li>The market-implied outlook (derived from options prices) has shifted to a substantially more positive near-term view.</li> <li>I see GM as having a favorable risk-return profile.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/139e056979d4a81394ff8a2299dd40df\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>通用汽车一直在努力向电动汽车和其他技术前沿的过渡。</li><li>华尔街的共识是通用汽车迟早会成功。</li><li>市场隐含的前景（来自期权价格）已经转向更加积极的近期观点。</li><li>我认为通用汽车具有良好的风险回报状况。</li></ul>JHVEPhoto/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote> General Motors(NYSE:GM)seems to be having a moment, with the share price rising 4.5% today, following an inspirational&nbsp;presentation to analysts. The company outlined its plan to be a leader in EVs and a vision for building a&nbsp;million self-driving cars by 2030. For GM, as with Ford(NYSE:F), the company recognizes that earnings growth and share valuation depend on aggressive technology-driven development. If GM can convince the market, and then demonstrate, that there is a real roadmap to higher-margin EVs and self-driving vehicles, the shares should demand a considerably higher price. After all, GM’s forward P/E is&nbsp;8.8, as compared to TSLA’s&nbsp;144.8.<blockquote>通用汽车(NYSE：GM)似乎迎来了一个时刻，在向分析师做了一次鼓舞人心的演讲后，今天股价上涨了4.5%。该公司概述了成为电动汽车领导者的计划以及到2030年生产100万辆自动驾驶汽车的愿景。对于通用汽车来说，与福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）一样，该公司认识到盈利增长和股票估值取决于积极的技术驱动发展。如果通用汽车能够说服市场，然后证明有一个真正的高利润电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车的路线图，那么该股的价格应该会高得多。毕竟，通用汽车的预期市盈率为8.8，而特斯拉的预期市盈率为144.8。</blockquote> Intriguingly, the Wall Street analysts have already priced an outlook for GM’s transformation. The Wall Street analyst&nbsp;consensus price target&nbsp;for GM has surged to $71.3, as compared to $46.6 in February of 2020, right before COVID hit and $51 at the end of 2020. At the current share price of $56.30, the Wall Street consensus (as calculated by&nbsp;Seeking Alpha) is for 12-month price appreciation of 26.7%.<blockquote>有趣的是，华尔街分析师已经对通用汽车转型的前景进行了定价。华尔街分析师对通用汽车的一致目标价已飙升至71.3美元，而2020年2月新冠疫情爆发前为46.6美元，2020年底为51美元。按目前56.30美元的股价计算，华尔街的共识（由Seeking Alpha计算）是12个月内股价上涨26.7%。</blockquote> When I&nbsp;last analyzed GM on March 7, 2021, seven months ago, the Wall Street consensus outlook was already bullish, with a 12-month price target that was about 20% above the share price at that time. Of the 19 analysts included in Seeking Alpha’s consensus outlook, 17 were bullish and 2 were neutral. I assigned GM a neutral rating at that time, largely because the outlook implied by options prices, in contrast to the Wall Street consensus, was bearish. The options market to early 2022 was indicating elevated probabilities of price declines. I compromised between the bullish Wall Street and the bearish options market view with a neutral rating. Since my post was published, GM has gained 4% (including the big rise today), as compared to 15.1% in price appreciation for the S&amp;P 500.<blockquote>当我上次在7个月前的2021年3月7日分析通用汽车时，华尔街的普遍前景已经看涨，12个月目标价比当时的股价高出约20%。在Seeking Alpha一致展望中的19名分析师中，17名分析师看涨，2名分析师中性。我当时给通用汽车的评级是中性的，主要是因为与华尔街的共识相反，期权价格所暗示的前景是看跌的。截至2022年初的期权市场表明价格下跌的可能性很高。我在看涨华尔街和看跌期权市场观点之间做出了妥协，给予了中性评级。自从我的文章发表以来，通用汽车已经上涨了4%（包括今天的大幅上涨），而标普500的价格上涨了15.1%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c074188d666f33a0849eb28c23242522\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Performance of GM vs. the S&amp;P 500 over the past 7 months (Source: Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>通用汽车与标普500过去7个月的表现（来源：Seeking Alpha）</blockquote> Using options prices to build a probabilistic price return outlook is conceptually straightforward. The price of an option represents the market’s consensus estimate for the probability that the price of the underlying stock (GM, in this case) will rise above (call option) or fall below (put option) a specific level (the strike price) between now and when the option expires. By analyzing calls and puts at a range of strike prices and a common expiration date, it is possible to calculate a probabilistic outlook for the underlying security that reconciles the options prices. This is referred to as the market-implied outlook. For readers seeking more information on this approach, I have written an&nbsp;overview post, including links to the relevant financial literature.<blockquote>使用期权价格来构建概率价格回报前景在概念上很简单。期权价格代表市场对标的股票（在本例中为通用汽车）价格高于（看涨期权期权）或低于（看跌期权）特定水平（执行价格）的概率的一致估计。）从现在到期权到期。通过分析一系列执行价格和共同到期日的评级和看跌期权，可以计算出与期权价格相一致的基础证券的概率前景。这被称为市场隐含前景。对于寻求更多关于这种方法的信息的读者，我写了一篇概述文章，包括相关金融文献的链接。</blockquote> It is clear today, as it was for my last analysis, that GM is relying on the ability to compete with EVs and autonomous vehicles. The analysts are valuing the company assuming that GM will successfully make this transition. Even if one agrees, the challenge is in the timing. Since March, GM has suffered an expensive and embarrassing setback with the&nbsp;massive recall&nbsp;of Chevy electric vehicles. Even if one buys into management’s vision, one imagines that some car buyers will be reluctant to buy a GM EV after seeing pictures of&nbsp;charred Chevy Bolts.<blockquote>今天很明显，正如我上次的分析一样，通用汽车依靠的是与电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车竞争的能力。分析师对该公司进行估值时假设通用汽车将成功实现这一转型。即使有人同意，挑战也在于时机。自3月份以来，通用汽车因大规模召回雪佛兰电动汽车而遭受了代价高昂且令人尴尬的挫折。即使人们相信管理层的愿景，人们也会想象一些购车者在看到烧焦的雪佛兰Bolt的照片后不愿意购买通用汽车电动汽车。</blockquote> GM is currently 11.9% below its 2021 high close of $63.92, set on June 8. With 7 months since my last analysis, and with the market and the analysts responding favorably to GM’s vision, I am revisiting my rating on GM.<blockquote>通用汽车目前较6月8日创下的2021年收盘价63.92美元低11.9%。距离我上次分析已经过去7个月了，随着市场和分析师对通用汽车的愿景反应良好，我正在重新审视我对通用汽车的评级。</blockquote> Wall Street Consensus Outlook for GM<blockquote>华尔街对通用汽车的共识前景</blockquote> ETrade’s calculation of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using the views of 13 ranked analysts who have issued ratings and price targets for GM within the past 90 days. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus 12-month price target is 27.5% above the current share price. There is a fairly high level of dispersion in the price targets, which&nbsp;reduces confidence&nbsp;in the consensus value. Of the 13 analysts, 12 give GM a buy rating and 1 assigns a neutral rating.<blockquote>ETrade对华尔街共识前景的计算是根据过去90天内发布通用汽车评级和价格目标的13位排名分析师的观点计算得出的。共识评级为看涨，共识12个月目标价比当前股价高出27.5%。价格目标存在相当高的离散度，这降低了对共识价值的信心。在13名分析师中，12名给予通用汽车买入评级，1名给予中性评级。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31b957237cbf2644c75e372831ed0714\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"838\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Wall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for GM (Source: ETrade)<blockquote>华尔街分析师对通用汽车的一致评级和12个月目标价（来源：ETrade）</blockquote> Seeking Alpha’s version of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using ratings and prices targets from 21 analysts. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus price target is 26.7% above the current share price. Only 1 analyst is neutral and the other 20 are bullish.<blockquote>Seeking Alpha版本的华尔街共识前景是使用21位分析师的评级和价格目标计算得出的。一致评级为看涨，一致目标价较当前股价高出26.7%。只有1名分析师持中性态度，其他20名分析师持看涨态度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbd40949c8ccc5a730e0aa07c04e15a8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"645\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Wall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for GM (Source: Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>华尔街分析师对通用汽车的一致评级和12个月目标价（来源：Seeking Alpha）</blockquote> The good news for GM shareholders is that the analysts are almost uniformly bullish on GM and the average 12-month price target is about 27% above the current level. There are somewhat cautionary considerations, however. First, the spread among the price targets is high, which means that there is not a lot of confidence in the outlook. Second, the timing of a share price recovery is hard to predict. The analysts were bullish back in March, as well.<blockquote>对于通用汽车股东来说，好消息是分析师几乎一致看好通用汽车，12个月平均目标价比当前水平高出约27%。然而，也有一些谨慎的考虑。首先，价格目标之间的利差很高，这意味着对前景没有太大信心。其次，股价回升的时机很难预测。分析师在三月份也持乐观态度。</blockquote> Market-Implied Outlook for GM<blockquote>通用汽车的市场隐含前景</blockquote> I have analyzed the prices of call and put options at a range of strike prices, all expiring on January 21, 2022 to generate the market-implied outlook for the next 3.5 months (from today until the expiration date). In my previous analysis, I also calculated a market-implied outlook using options with this expiration date. I have also generated the market-implied outlook to mid 2022, a period of 8.3 months, by analyzing options that expire on June 21, 2022.<blockquote>我分析了一系列执行价格的看涨期权和看跌期权的价格，这些期权都将于2022年1月21日到期，以生成未来3.5个月（从今天到到期日）的市场隐含前景。在我之前的分析中，我还使用具有此到期日的期权计算了市场隐含前景。我还通过分析2022年6月21日到期的期权，生成了2022年中期（8.3个月）的市场隐含前景。</blockquote> The standard presentation of the market-implied outlook is a probability distribution of price return, with probability on the vertical axis and return on the horizontal.<blockquote>市场隐含前景的标准表示是价格回报的概率分布，概率在纵轴，回报在横轴。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd025ceee857934bb5992eb6c234bd6d\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 3.5-month period from today until January 21, 2022 (Source: Author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)<blockquote>从今天到2022年1月21日的3.5个月期间通用汽车的市场隐含价格回报概率（来源：作者使用ETrade期权报价进行计算）</blockquote> The market-implied outlook for GM for the 3.5-month period between now and January 21, 2022 is generally symmetric, although the peak probability is slightly tilted towards negative returns, corresponding to a price return of -1.5%. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 35.7%, quite high for an individual stock.<blockquote>从现在到2022年1月21日的3.5个月期间，通用汽车的市场隐含前景总体上是对称的，尽管峰值概率略有向负回报倾斜，对应的价格回报为-1.5%。这种分布得出的年化波动率为35.7%，对于个股来说相当高。</blockquote> To make it easier to directly compare the probabilities of positive and negative returns, I rotate the negative return side of the distribution about the vertical axis (see chart below).<blockquote>为了更容易直接比较正回报和负回报的概率，我围绕垂直轴旋转分布的负回报侧（见下图）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc3728611fe98a00c0edfa693bae10b4\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 3.5-month period from today until January 21, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)<blockquote>通用汽车从今天到2022年1月21日3.5个月期间的市场隐含价格回报概率。分布的负回报侧已绕垂直轴旋转（来源：作者使用ETrade的期权报价进行计算）</blockquote> This view shows that the probabilities of positive and negative returns are almost identical for most outcomes (the solid blue line and the dashed red line are very close to one another). The exception is for small-magnitude price returns (+/- 5%).<blockquote>这种观点表明，对于大多数结果，正回报和负回报的概率几乎相同（蓝色实线和红色虚线彼此非常接近）。例外情况是小规模价格回报（+/-5%）。</blockquote> Theory predicts that the market-implied outlook will tend to be negatively biased because risk-averse investors pay more than fair value for put options to limit losses in long positions. In the financial literature, the market-implied outlook is often referred to as being risk-neutral. What this means is that the market-implied outlook would be unbiased if investors, in aggregate, were risk-neutral. Investors, collectively, are risk-averse - demanding to be paid a premium to take on risk (the equity risk premium). For this reason, a market-implied outlook with closely matching probabilities between positive and negative returns, as we see here, is actually a slightly bullish view.<blockquote>理论预测，市场隐含的前景将倾向于负面偏差，因为规避风险的投资者为看跌期权支付的价格高于公允价值，以限制多头头寸的损失。在金融文献中，市场隐含的前景通常被称为风险中性的。这意味着，如果投资者总体上风险中性，市场隐含的前景将是无偏见的。总的来说，投资者是规避风险的——要求获得承担风险的溢价（股票风险溢价）。因此，正如我们在这里看到的，正回报和负回报之间概率密切匹配的市场隐含前景实际上是一种稍微看涨的观点。</blockquote> The market-implied outlook to the middle of 2022 (8.3 months), calculated using the prices of call and put options that expire on June 17, 2022, exhibits more of a negative tilt. Qualitative consideration of the potential for a negative bias leads me to characterize this outlook as neutral, perhaps with a slight bearish tilt. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 36.5%.<blockquote>使用2022年6月17日到期的看涨期权和看跌期权价格计算的2022年中期（8.3个月）的市场隐含前景显示出更多的负面倾斜。对潜在负面偏见的定性考虑使我将这种前景描述为中性，也许有轻微的看跌倾向。由此分布得出的年化波动率为36.5%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7731002b4fcd2fbea3e50f32512c507\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 8.3-month period from today until June 17, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)<blockquote>通用汽车从今天到2022年6月17日的8.3个月期间的市场隐含价格回报概率。分布的负回报侧已绕垂直轴旋转（来源：作者使用ETrade的期权报价进行计算）</blockquote> Contrast the current market-implied outlooks for GM with the 10.6-month outlook to January 2022 from my&nbsp;previous analysis&nbsp;in March, which was substantially bearish. In this outlook, the probabilities of negative price returns were much higher relative to those for positive returns. The current market-implied outlook, slightly bullish to early 2022 and neutral to mid-2022, is much more favorable than the outlook from my earlier analysis.<blockquote>将通用汽车当前的市场隐含前景与我之前3月份分析中截至2022年1月的10.6个月前景进行对比，该分析非常悲观。在这种前景中，相对于正回报，负价格回报的概率要高得多。目前市场隐含的前景，2022年初略有看涨，2022年中期中性，比我之前分析的前景要有利得多。</blockquote> Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> GM is at an important transition point in its history. The company needs to rapidly and convincingly shift away from traditional internal combustion vehicles and towards EVs and autonomous vehicles. The Wall Street analysts, as a group, are confident that GM can make strides in this direction and the analyst consensus has gotten more bullish through 2021. The Wall Street consensus rating is bullish, with about 27% expected 12-month price appreciation.<blockquote>通用汽车正处于其历史上的一个重要转折点。该公司需要迅速、令人信服地从传统内燃机汽车转向电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车。华尔街分析师作为一个群体，相信通用汽车能够在这个方向上取得长足进步，并且分析师的共识在2021年变得更加乐观。华尔街一致评级为看涨，约27%的人预计12个月价格将上涨。</blockquote> The projected volatility for GM, calculated from the market-implied outlook, is about 36%. This is a fairly high level of volatility, but looks reasonable if we believe that the expected return is 27%. As a rule of thumb for a buy, I want to see expected return that is at or above ½ of the volatility.<blockquote>根据市场隐含前景计算，通用汽车的预计波动性约为36%。这是一个相当高的波动水平，但如果我们相信预期回报率为27%，那么看起来是合理的。作为买入的经验法则，我希望看到预期回报等于或高于波动率的1/2。</blockquote> Taking the analyst expected return at face value, GM easily surpasses this threshold. The market-implied outlook to early 2022 is slightly bullish, shifting to neutral by mid-2022. The market-implied outlook for GM has improved dramatically since March, when it was significantly bearish. I am changing my rating on GM from neutral to bullish.<blockquote>从分析师的预期回报率来看，通用汽车轻松超过了这一门槛。市场对2022年初的隐含前景略有看涨，到2022年中期将转向中性。自3月份以来，市场对通用汽车的隐含前景已显着改善，当时通用汽车的前景明显看跌。我将对通用汽车的评级从中性改为看涨。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Favorable Outlook For GM<blockquote>通用汽车前景良好</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFavorable Outlook For GM<blockquote>通用汽车前景良好</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-10-08 11:10\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>GM has struggled with the transition to EVs and other technology-forward efforts.</li> <li>The Wall Street consensus is that GM will succeed sooner rather than later.</li> <li>The market-implied outlook (derived from options prices) has shifted to a substantially more positive near-term view.</li> <li>I see GM as having a favorable risk-return profile.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/139e056979d4a81394ff8a2299dd40df\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>通用汽车一直在努力向电动汽车和其他技术前沿的过渡。</li><li>华尔街的共识是通用汽车迟早会成功。</li><li>市场隐含的前景（来自期权价格）已经转向更加积极的近期观点。</li><li>我认为通用汽车具有良好的风险回报状况。</li></ul>JHVEPhoto/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote> General Motors(NYSE:GM)seems to be having a moment, with the share price rising 4.5% today, following an inspirational&nbsp;presentation to analysts. The company outlined its plan to be a leader in EVs and a vision for building a&nbsp;million self-driving cars by 2030. For GM, as with Ford(NYSE:F), the company recognizes that earnings growth and share valuation depend on aggressive technology-driven development. If GM can convince the market, and then demonstrate, that there is a real roadmap to higher-margin EVs and self-driving vehicles, the shares should demand a considerably higher price. After all, GM’s forward P/E is&nbsp;8.8, as compared to TSLA’s&nbsp;144.8.<blockquote>通用汽车(NYSE：GM)似乎迎来了一个时刻，在向分析师做了一次鼓舞人心的演讲后，今天股价上涨了4.5%。该公司概述了成为电动汽车领导者的计划以及到2030年生产100万辆自动驾驶汽车的愿景。对于通用汽车来说，与福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）一样，该公司认识到盈利增长和股票估值取决于积极的技术驱动发展。如果通用汽车能够说服市场，然后证明有一个真正的高利润电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车的路线图，那么该股的价格应该会高得多。毕竟，通用汽车的预期市盈率为8.8，而特斯拉的预期市盈率为144.8。</blockquote> Intriguingly, the Wall Street analysts have already priced an outlook for GM’s transformation. The Wall Street analyst&nbsp;consensus price target&nbsp;for GM has surged to $71.3, as compared to $46.6 in February of 2020, right before COVID hit and $51 at the end of 2020. At the current share price of $56.30, the Wall Street consensus (as calculated by&nbsp;Seeking Alpha) is for 12-month price appreciation of 26.7%.<blockquote>有趣的是，华尔街分析师已经对通用汽车转型的前景进行了定价。华尔街分析师对通用汽车的一致目标价已飙升至71.3美元，而2020年2月新冠疫情爆发前为46.6美元，2020年底为51美元。按目前56.30美元的股价计算，华尔街的共识（由Seeking Alpha计算）是12个月内股价上涨26.7%。</blockquote> When I&nbsp;last analyzed GM on March 7, 2021, seven months ago, the Wall Street consensus outlook was already bullish, with a 12-month price target that was about 20% above the share price at that time. Of the 19 analysts included in Seeking Alpha’s consensus outlook, 17 were bullish and 2 were neutral. I assigned GM a neutral rating at that time, largely because the outlook implied by options prices, in contrast to the Wall Street consensus, was bearish. The options market to early 2022 was indicating elevated probabilities of price declines. I compromised between the bullish Wall Street and the bearish options market view with a neutral rating. Since my post was published, GM has gained 4% (including the big rise today), as compared to 15.1% in price appreciation for the S&amp;P 500.<blockquote>当我上次在7个月前的2021年3月7日分析通用汽车时，华尔街的普遍前景已经看涨，12个月目标价比当时的股价高出约20%。在Seeking Alpha一致展望中的19名分析师中，17名分析师看涨，2名分析师中性。我当时给通用汽车的评级是中性的，主要是因为与华尔街的共识相反，期权价格所暗示的前景是看跌的。截至2022年初的期权市场表明价格下跌的可能性很高。我在看涨华尔街和看跌期权市场观点之间做出了妥协，给予了中性评级。自从我的文章发表以来，通用汽车已经上涨了4%（包括今天的大幅上涨），而标普500的价格上涨了15.1%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c074188d666f33a0849eb28c23242522\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Performance of GM vs. the S&amp;P 500 over the past 7 months (Source: Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>通用汽车与标普500过去7个月的表现（来源：Seeking Alpha）</blockquote> Using options prices to build a probabilistic price return outlook is conceptually straightforward. The price of an option represents the market’s consensus estimate for the probability that the price of the underlying stock (GM, in this case) will rise above (call option) or fall below (put option) a specific level (the strike price) between now and when the option expires. By analyzing calls and puts at a range of strike prices and a common expiration date, it is possible to calculate a probabilistic outlook for the underlying security that reconciles the options prices. This is referred to as the market-implied outlook. For readers seeking more information on this approach, I have written an&nbsp;overview post, including links to the relevant financial literature.<blockquote>使用期权价格来构建概率价格回报前景在概念上很简单。期权价格代表市场对标的股票（在本例中为通用汽车）价格高于（看涨期权期权）或低于（看跌期权）特定水平（执行价格）的概率的一致估计。）从现在到期权到期。通过分析一系列执行价格和共同到期日的评级和看跌期权，可以计算出与期权价格相一致的基础证券的概率前景。这被称为市场隐含前景。对于寻求更多关于这种方法的信息的读者，我写了一篇概述文章，包括相关金融文献的链接。</blockquote> It is clear today, as it was for my last analysis, that GM is relying on the ability to compete with EVs and autonomous vehicles. The analysts are valuing the company assuming that GM will successfully make this transition. Even if one agrees, the challenge is in the timing. Since March, GM has suffered an expensive and embarrassing setback with the&nbsp;massive recall&nbsp;of Chevy electric vehicles. Even if one buys into management’s vision, one imagines that some car buyers will be reluctant to buy a GM EV after seeing pictures of&nbsp;charred Chevy Bolts.<blockquote>今天很明显，正如我上次的分析一样，通用汽车依靠的是与电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车竞争的能力。分析师对该公司进行估值时假设通用汽车将成功实现这一转型。即使有人同意，挑战也在于时机。自3月份以来，通用汽车因大规模召回雪佛兰电动汽车而遭受了代价高昂且令人尴尬的挫折。即使人们相信管理层的愿景，人们也会想象一些购车者在看到烧焦的雪佛兰Bolt的照片后不愿意购买通用汽车电动汽车。</blockquote> GM is currently 11.9% below its 2021 high close of $63.92, set on June 8. With 7 months since my last analysis, and with the market and the analysts responding favorably to GM’s vision, I am revisiting my rating on GM.<blockquote>通用汽车目前较6月8日创下的2021年收盘价63.92美元低11.9%。距离我上次分析已经过去7个月了，随着市场和分析师对通用汽车的愿景反应良好，我正在重新审视我对通用汽车的评级。</blockquote> Wall Street Consensus Outlook for GM<blockquote>华尔街对通用汽车的共识前景</blockquote> ETrade’s calculation of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using the views of 13 ranked analysts who have issued ratings and price targets for GM within the past 90 days. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus 12-month price target is 27.5% above the current share price. There is a fairly high level of dispersion in the price targets, which&nbsp;reduces confidence&nbsp;in the consensus value. Of the 13 analysts, 12 give GM a buy rating and 1 assigns a neutral rating.<blockquote>ETrade对华尔街共识前景的计算是根据过去90天内发布通用汽车评级和价格目标的13位排名分析师的观点计算得出的。共识评级为看涨，共识12个月目标价比当前股价高出27.5%。价格目标存在相当高的离散度，这降低了对共识价值的信心。在13名分析师中，12名给予通用汽车买入评级，1名给予中性评级。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31b957237cbf2644c75e372831ed0714\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"838\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Wall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for GM (Source: ETrade)<blockquote>华尔街分析师对通用汽车的一致评级和12个月目标价（来源：ETrade）</blockquote> Seeking Alpha’s version of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using ratings and prices targets from 21 analysts. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus price target is 26.7% above the current share price. Only 1 analyst is neutral and the other 20 are bullish.<blockquote>Seeking Alpha版本的华尔街共识前景是使用21位分析师的评级和价格目标计算得出的。一致评级为看涨，一致目标价较当前股价高出26.7%。只有1名分析师持中性态度，其他20名分析师持看涨态度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbd40949c8ccc5a730e0aa07c04e15a8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"645\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Wall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for GM (Source: Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>华尔街分析师对通用汽车的一致评级和12个月目标价（来源：Seeking Alpha）</blockquote> The good news for GM shareholders is that the analysts are almost uniformly bullish on GM and the average 12-month price target is about 27% above the current level. There are somewhat cautionary considerations, however. First, the spread among the price targets is high, which means that there is not a lot of confidence in the outlook. Second, the timing of a share price recovery is hard to predict. The analysts were bullish back in March, as well.<blockquote>对于通用汽车股东来说，好消息是分析师几乎一致看好通用汽车，12个月平均目标价比当前水平高出约27%。然而，也有一些谨慎的考虑。首先，价格目标之间的利差很高，这意味着对前景没有太大信心。其次，股价回升的时机很难预测。分析师在三月份也持乐观态度。</blockquote> Market-Implied Outlook for GM<blockquote>通用汽车的市场隐含前景</blockquote> I have analyzed the prices of call and put options at a range of strike prices, all expiring on January 21, 2022 to generate the market-implied outlook for the next 3.5 months (from today until the expiration date). In my previous analysis, I also calculated a market-implied outlook using options with this expiration date. I have also generated the market-implied outlook to mid 2022, a period of 8.3 months, by analyzing options that expire on June 21, 2022.<blockquote>我分析了一系列执行价格的看涨期权和看跌期权的价格，这些期权都将于2022年1月21日到期，以生成未来3.5个月（从今天到到期日）的市场隐含前景。在我之前的分析中，我还使用具有此到期日的期权计算了市场隐含前景。我还通过分析2022年6月21日到期的期权，生成了2022年中期（8.3个月）的市场隐含前景。</blockquote> The standard presentation of the market-implied outlook is a probability distribution of price return, with probability on the vertical axis and return on the horizontal.<blockquote>市场隐含前景的标准表示是价格回报的概率分布，概率在纵轴，回报在横轴。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd025ceee857934bb5992eb6c234bd6d\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 3.5-month period from today until January 21, 2022 (Source: Author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)<blockquote>从今天到2022年1月21日的3.5个月期间通用汽车的市场隐含价格回报概率（来源：作者使用ETrade期权报价进行计算）</blockquote> The market-implied outlook for GM for the 3.5-month period between now and January 21, 2022 is generally symmetric, although the peak probability is slightly tilted towards negative returns, corresponding to a price return of -1.5%. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 35.7%, quite high for an individual stock.<blockquote>从现在到2022年1月21日的3.5个月期间，通用汽车的市场隐含前景总体上是对称的，尽管峰值概率略有向负回报倾斜，对应的价格回报为-1.5%。这种分布得出的年化波动率为35.7%，对于个股来说相当高。</blockquote> To make it easier to directly compare the probabilities of positive and negative returns, I rotate the negative return side of the distribution about the vertical axis (see chart below).<blockquote>为了更容易直接比较正回报和负回报的概率，我围绕垂直轴旋转分布的负回报侧（见下图）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc3728611fe98a00c0edfa693bae10b4\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 3.5-month period from today until January 21, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)<blockquote>通用汽车从今天到2022年1月21日3.5个月期间的市场隐含价格回报概率。分布的负回报侧已绕垂直轴旋转（来源：作者使用ETrade的期权报价进行计算）</blockquote> This view shows that the probabilities of positive and negative returns are almost identical for most outcomes (the solid blue line and the dashed red line are very close to one another). The exception is for small-magnitude price returns (+/- 5%).<blockquote>这种观点表明，对于大多数结果，正回报和负回报的概率几乎相同（蓝色实线和红色虚线彼此非常接近）。例外情况是小规模价格回报（+/-5%）。</blockquote> Theory predicts that the market-implied outlook will tend to be negatively biased because risk-averse investors pay more than fair value for put options to limit losses in long positions. In the financial literature, the market-implied outlook is often referred to as being risk-neutral. What this means is that the market-implied outlook would be unbiased if investors, in aggregate, were risk-neutral. Investors, collectively, are risk-averse - demanding to be paid a premium to take on risk (the equity risk premium). For this reason, a market-implied outlook with closely matching probabilities between positive and negative returns, as we see here, is actually a slightly bullish view.<blockquote>理论预测，市场隐含的前景将倾向于负面偏差，因为规避风险的投资者为看跌期权支付的价格高于公允价值，以限制多头头寸的损失。在金融文献中，市场隐含的前景通常被称为风险中性的。这意味着，如果投资者总体上风险中性，市场隐含的前景将是无偏见的。总的来说，投资者是规避风险的——要求获得承担风险的溢价（股票风险溢价）。因此，正如我们在这里看到的，正回报和负回报之间概率密切匹配的市场隐含前景实际上是一种稍微看涨的观点。</blockquote> The market-implied outlook to the middle of 2022 (8.3 months), calculated using the prices of call and put options that expire on June 17, 2022, exhibits more of a negative tilt. Qualitative consideration of the potential for a negative bias leads me to characterize this outlook as neutral, perhaps with a slight bearish tilt. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 36.5%.<blockquote>使用2022年6月17日到期的看涨期权和看跌期权价格计算的2022年中期（8.3个月）的市场隐含前景显示出更多的负面倾斜。对潜在负面偏见的定性考虑使我将这种前景描述为中性，也许有轻微的看跌倾向。由此分布得出的年化波动率为36.5%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7731002b4fcd2fbea3e50f32512c507\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 8.3-month period from today until June 17, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)<blockquote>通用汽车从今天到2022年6月17日的8.3个月期间的市场隐含价格回报概率。分布的负回报侧已绕垂直轴旋转（来源：作者使用ETrade的期权报价进行计算）</blockquote> Contrast the current market-implied outlooks for GM with the 10.6-month outlook to January 2022 from my&nbsp;previous analysis&nbsp;in March, which was substantially bearish. In this outlook, the probabilities of negative price returns were much higher relative to those for positive returns. The current market-implied outlook, slightly bullish to early 2022 and neutral to mid-2022, is much more favorable than the outlook from my earlier analysis.<blockquote>将通用汽车当前的市场隐含前景与我之前3月份分析中截至2022年1月的10.6个月前景进行对比，该分析非常悲观。在这种前景中，相对于正回报，负价格回报的概率要高得多。目前市场隐含的前景，2022年初略有看涨，2022年中期中性，比我之前分析的前景要有利得多。</blockquote> Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> GM is at an important transition point in its history. The company needs to rapidly and convincingly shift away from traditional internal combustion vehicles and towards EVs and autonomous vehicles. The Wall Street analysts, as a group, are confident that GM can make strides in this direction and the analyst consensus has gotten more bullish through 2021. The Wall Street consensus rating is bullish, with about 27% expected 12-month price appreciation.<blockquote>通用汽车正处于其历史上的一个重要转折点。该公司需要迅速、令人信服地从传统内燃机汽车转向电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车。华尔街分析师作为一个群体，相信通用汽车能够在这个方向上取得长足进步，并且分析师的共识在2021年变得更加乐观。华尔街一致评级为看涨，约27%的人预计12个月价格将上涨。</blockquote> The projected volatility for GM, calculated from the market-implied outlook, is about 36%. This is a fairly high level of volatility, but looks reasonable if we believe that the expected return is 27%. As a rule of thumb for a buy, I want to see expected return that is at or above ½ of the volatility.<blockquote>根据市场隐含前景计算，通用汽车的预计波动性约为36%。这是一个相当高的波动水平，但如果我们相信预期回报率为27%，那么看起来是合理的。作为买入的经验法则，我希望看到预期回报等于或高于波动率的1/2。</blockquote> Taking the analyst expected return at face value, GM easily surpasses this threshold. The market-implied outlook to early 2022 is slightly bullish, shifting to neutral by mid-2022. The market-implied outlook for GM has improved dramatically since March, when it was significantly bearish. I am changing my rating on GM from neutral to bullish.<blockquote>从分析师的预期回报率来看，通用汽车轻松超过了这一门槛。市场对2022年初的隐含前景略有看涨，到2022年中期将转向中性。自3月份以来，市场对通用汽车的隐含前景已显着改善，当时通用汽车的前景明显看跌。我将对通用汽车的评级从中性改为看涨。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458959-favorable-outlook-for-gm\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458959-favorable-outlook-for-gm","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128736762","content_text":"Summary\n\nGM has struggled with the transition to EVs and other technology-forward efforts.\nThe Wall Street consensus is that GM will succeed sooner rather than later.\nThe market-implied outlook (derived from options prices) has shifted to a substantially more positive near-term view.\nI see GM as having a favorable risk-return profile.\n\nJHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nGeneral Motors(NYSE:GM)seems to be having a moment, with the share price rising 4.5% today, following an inspirational presentation to analysts. The company outlined its plan to be a leader in EVs and a vision for building a million self-driving cars by 2030. For GM, as with Ford(NYSE:F), the company recognizes that earnings growth and share valuation depend on aggressive technology-driven development. If GM can convince the market, and then demonstrate, that there is a real roadmap to higher-margin EVs and self-driving vehicles, the shares should demand a considerably higher price. After all, GM’s forward P/E is 8.8, as compared to TSLA’s 144.8.\nIntriguingly, the Wall Street analysts have already priced an outlook for GM’s transformation. The Wall Street analyst consensus price target for GM has surged to $71.3, as compared to $46.6 in February of 2020, right before COVID hit and $51 at the end of 2020. At the current share price of $56.30, the Wall Street consensus (as calculated by Seeking Alpha) is for 12-month price appreciation of 26.7%.\nWhen I last analyzed GM on March 7, 2021, seven months ago, the Wall Street consensus outlook was already bullish, with a 12-month price target that was about 20% above the share price at that time. Of the 19 analysts included in Seeking Alpha’s consensus outlook, 17 were bullish and 2 were neutral. I assigned GM a neutral rating at that time, largely because the outlook implied by options prices, in contrast to the Wall Street consensus, was bearish. The options market to early 2022 was indicating elevated probabilities of price declines. I compromised between the bullish Wall Street and the bearish options market view with a neutral rating. Since my post was published, GM has gained 4% (including the big rise today), as compared to 15.1% in price appreciation for the S&P 500.\nPerformance of GM vs. the S&P 500 over the past 7 months (Source: Seeking Alpha)\nUsing options prices to build a probabilistic price return outlook is conceptually straightforward. The price of an option represents the market’s consensus estimate for the probability that the price of the underlying stock (GM, in this case) will rise above (call option) or fall below (put option) a specific level (the strike price) between now and when the option expires. By analyzing calls and puts at a range of strike prices and a common expiration date, it is possible to calculate a probabilistic outlook for the underlying security that reconciles the options prices. This is referred to as the market-implied outlook. For readers seeking more information on this approach, I have written an overview post, including links to the relevant financial literature.\nIt is clear today, as it was for my last analysis, that GM is relying on the ability to compete with EVs and autonomous vehicles. The analysts are valuing the company assuming that GM will successfully make this transition. Even if one agrees, the challenge is in the timing. Since March, GM has suffered an expensive and embarrassing setback with the massive recall of Chevy electric vehicles. Even if one buys into management’s vision, one imagines that some car buyers will be reluctant to buy a GM EV after seeing pictures of charred Chevy Bolts.\nGM is currently 11.9% below its 2021 high close of $63.92, set on June 8. With 7 months since my last analysis, and with the market and the analysts responding favorably to GM’s vision, I am revisiting my rating on GM.\nWall Street Consensus Outlook for GM\nETrade’s calculation of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using the views of 13 ranked analysts who have issued ratings and price targets for GM within the past 90 days. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus 12-month price target is 27.5% above the current share price. There is a fairly high level of dispersion in the price targets, which reduces confidence in the consensus value. Of the 13 analysts, 12 give GM a buy rating and 1 assigns a neutral rating.\nWall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for GM (Source: ETrade)\nSeeking Alpha’s version of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using ratings and prices targets from 21 analysts. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus price target is 26.7% above the current share price. Only 1 analyst is neutral and the other 20 are bullish.\nWall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for GM (Source: Seeking Alpha)\nThe good news for GM shareholders is that the analysts are almost uniformly bullish on GM and the average 12-month price target is about 27% above the current level. There are somewhat cautionary considerations, however. First, the spread among the price targets is high, which means that there is not a lot of confidence in the outlook. Second, the timing of a share price recovery is hard to predict. The analysts were bullish back in March, as well.\nMarket-Implied Outlook for GM\nI have analyzed the prices of call and put options at a range of strike prices, all expiring on January 21, 2022 to generate the market-implied outlook for the next 3.5 months (from today until the expiration date). In my previous analysis, I also calculated a market-implied outlook using options with this expiration date. I have also generated the market-implied outlook to mid 2022, a period of 8.3 months, by analyzing options that expire on June 21, 2022.\nThe standard presentation of the market-implied outlook is a probability distribution of price return, with probability on the vertical axis and return on the horizontal.\nMarket-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 3.5-month period from today until January 21, 2022 (Source: Author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)\nThe market-implied outlook for GM for the 3.5-month period between now and January 21, 2022 is generally symmetric, although the peak probability is slightly tilted towards negative returns, corresponding to a price return of -1.5%. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 35.7%, quite high for an individual stock.\nTo make it easier to directly compare the probabilities of positive and negative returns, I rotate the negative return side of the distribution about the vertical axis (see chart below).\nMarket-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 3.5-month period from today until January 21, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)\nThis view shows that the probabilities of positive and negative returns are almost identical for most outcomes (the solid blue line and the dashed red line are very close to one another). The exception is for small-magnitude price returns (+/- 5%).\nTheory predicts that the market-implied outlook will tend to be negatively biased because risk-averse investors pay more than fair value for put options to limit losses in long positions. In the financial literature, the market-implied outlook is often referred to as being risk-neutral. What this means is that the market-implied outlook would be unbiased if investors, in aggregate, were risk-neutral. Investors, collectively, are risk-averse - demanding to be paid a premium to take on risk (the equity risk premium). For this reason, a market-implied outlook with closely matching probabilities between positive and negative returns, as we see here, is actually a slightly bullish view.\nThe market-implied outlook to the middle of 2022 (8.3 months), calculated using the prices of call and put options that expire on June 17, 2022, exhibits more of a negative tilt. Qualitative consideration of the potential for a negative bias leads me to characterize this outlook as neutral, perhaps with a slight bearish tilt. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 36.5%.\nMarket-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 8.3-month period from today until June 17, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)\nContrast the current market-implied outlooks for GM with the 10.6-month outlook to January 2022 from my previous analysis in March, which was substantially bearish. In this outlook, the probabilities of negative price returns were much higher relative to those for positive returns. The current market-implied outlook, slightly bullish to early 2022 and neutral to mid-2022, is much more favorable than the outlook from my earlier analysis.\nSummary\nGM is at an important transition point in its history. The company needs to rapidly and convincingly shift away from traditional internal combustion vehicles and towards EVs and autonomous vehicles. The Wall Street analysts, as a group, are confident that GM can make strides in this direction and the analyst consensus has gotten more bullish through 2021. The Wall Street consensus rating is bullish, with about 27% expected 12-month price appreciation.\nThe projected volatility for GM, calculated from the market-implied outlook, is about 36%. This is a fairly high level of volatility, but looks reasonable if we believe that the expected return is 27%. As a rule of thumb for a buy, I want to see expected return that is at or above ½ of the volatility.\nTaking the analyst expected return at face value, GM easily surpasses this threshold. The market-implied outlook to early 2022 is slightly bullish, shifting to neutral by mid-2022. The market-implied outlook for GM has improved dramatically since March, when it was significantly bearish. I am changing my rating on GM from neutral to bullish.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6133223,"gmtCreate":1633695814551,"gmtModify":1634718595571,"authorId":3584845105860173,"author":{"id":3584845105860173,"idStr":"3584845105860173","authorId":3584845105860173,"name":"Shawnn_13","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":821002037,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"thx","text":"thx","html":"thx"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":821000597,"gmtCreate":1633668859516,"gmtModify":1633668859947,"author":{"id":"3584620238111631","authorId":"3584620238111631","name":"Boink","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c209643e8a7d239ba24db30470811841","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3584620238111631","idStr":"3584620238111631"},"htmlText":"Legacy automaker 😂","listText":"Legacy automaker 😂","text":"Legacy automaker 😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821000597","repostId":1128736762,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128736762","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633662653,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1128736762?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 11:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Favorable Outlook For GM<blockquote>通用汽车前景良好</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128736762","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nGM has struggled with the transition to EVs and other technology-forward efforts.\nThe Wall ","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>GM has struggled with the transition to EVs and other technology-forward efforts.</li> <li>The Wall Street consensus is that GM will succeed sooner rather than later.</li> <li>The market-implied outlook (derived from options prices) has shifted to a substantially more positive near-term view.</li> <li>I see GM as having a favorable risk-return profile.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/139e056979d4a81394ff8a2299dd40df\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>通用汽车一直在努力向电动汽车和其他技术前沿的过渡。</li><li>华尔街的共识是通用汽车迟早会成功。</li><li>市场隐含的前景（来自期权价格）已经转向更加积极的近期观点。</li><li>我认为通用汽车具有良好的风险回报状况。</li></ul>JHVEPhoto/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote> General Motors(NYSE:GM)seems to be having a moment, with the share price rising 4.5% today, following an inspirational&nbsp;presentation to analysts. The company outlined its plan to be a leader in EVs and a vision for building a&nbsp;million self-driving cars by 2030. For GM, as with Ford(NYSE:F), the company recognizes that earnings growth and share valuation depend on aggressive technology-driven development. If GM can convince the market, and then demonstrate, that there is a real roadmap to higher-margin EVs and self-driving vehicles, the shares should demand a considerably higher price. After all, GM’s forward P/E is&nbsp;8.8, as compared to TSLA’s&nbsp;144.8.<blockquote>通用汽车(NYSE：GM)似乎迎来了一个时刻，在向分析师做了一次鼓舞人心的演讲后，今天股价上涨了4.5%。该公司概述了成为电动汽车领导者的计划以及到2030年生产100万辆自动驾驶汽车的愿景。对于通用汽车来说，与福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）一样，该公司认识到盈利增长和股票估值取决于积极的技术驱动发展。如果通用汽车能够说服市场，然后证明有一个真正的高利润电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车的路线图，那么该股的价格应该会高得多。毕竟，通用汽车的预期市盈率为8.8，而特斯拉的预期市盈率为144.8。</blockquote> Intriguingly, the Wall Street analysts have already priced an outlook for GM’s transformation. The Wall Street analyst&nbsp;consensus price target&nbsp;for GM has surged to $71.3, as compared to $46.6 in February of 2020, right before COVID hit and $51 at the end of 2020. At the current share price of $56.30, the Wall Street consensus (as calculated by&nbsp;Seeking Alpha) is for 12-month price appreciation of 26.7%.<blockquote>有趣的是，华尔街分析师已经对通用汽车转型的前景进行了定价。华尔街分析师对通用汽车的一致目标价已飙升至71.3美元，而2020年2月新冠疫情爆发前为46.6美元，2020年底为51美元。按目前56.30美元的股价计算，华尔街的共识（由Seeking Alpha计算）是12个月内股价上涨26.7%。</blockquote> When I&nbsp;last analyzed GM on March 7, 2021, seven months ago, the Wall Street consensus outlook was already bullish, with a 12-month price target that was about 20% above the share price at that time. Of the 19 analysts included in Seeking Alpha’s consensus outlook, 17 were bullish and 2 were neutral. I assigned GM a neutral rating at that time, largely because the outlook implied by options prices, in contrast to the Wall Street consensus, was bearish. The options market to early 2022 was indicating elevated probabilities of price declines. I compromised between the bullish Wall Street and the bearish options market view with a neutral rating. Since my post was published, GM has gained 4% (including the big rise today), as compared to 15.1% in price appreciation for the S&amp;P 500.<blockquote>当我上次在7个月前的2021年3月7日分析通用汽车时，华尔街的普遍前景已经看涨，12个月目标价比当时的股价高出约20%。在Seeking Alpha一致展望中的19名分析师中，17名分析师看涨，2名分析师中性。我当时给通用汽车的评级是中性的，主要是因为与华尔街的共识相反，期权价格所暗示的前景是看跌的。截至2022年初的期权市场表明价格下跌的可能性很高。我在看涨华尔街和看跌期权市场观点之间做出了妥协，给予了中性评级。自从我的文章发表以来，通用汽车已经上涨了4%（包括今天的大幅上涨），而标普500的价格上涨了15.1%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c074188d666f33a0849eb28c23242522\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Performance of GM vs. the S&amp;P 500 over the past 7 months (Source: Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>通用汽车与标普500过去7个月的表现（来源：Seeking Alpha）</blockquote> Using options prices to build a probabilistic price return outlook is conceptually straightforward. The price of an option represents the market’s consensus estimate for the probability that the price of the underlying stock (GM, in this case) will rise above (call option) or fall below (put option) a specific level (the strike price) between now and when the option expires. By analyzing calls and puts at a range of strike prices and a common expiration date, it is possible to calculate a probabilistic outlook for the underlying security that reconciles the options prices. This is referred to as the market-implied outlook. For readers seeking more information on this approach, I have written an&nbsp;overview post, including links to the relevant financial literature.<blockquote>使用期权价格来构建概率价格回报前景在概念上很简单。期权价格代表市场对标的股票（在本例中为通用汽车）价格高于（看涨期权期权）或低于（看跌期权）特定水平（执行价格）的概率的一致估计。）从现在到期权到期。通过分析一系列执行价格和共同到期日的评级和看跌期权，可以计算出与期权价格相一致的基础证券的概率前景。这被称为市场隐含前景。对于寻求更多关于这种方法的信息的读者，我写了一篇概述文章，包括相关金融文献的链接。</blockquote> It is clear today, as it was for my last analysis, that GM is relying on the ability to compete with EVs and autonomous vehicles. The analysts are valuing the company assuming that GM will successfully make this transition. Even if one agrees, the challenge is in the timing. Since March, GM has suffered an expensive and embarrassing setback with the&nbsp;massive recall&nbsp;of Chevy electric vehicles. Even if one buys into management’s vision, one imagines that some car buyers will be reluctant to buy a GM EV after seeing pictures of&nbsp;charred Chevy Bolts.<blockquote>今天很明显，正如我上次的分析一样，通用汽车依靠的是与电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车竞争的能力。分析师对该公司进行估值时假设通用汽车将成功实现这一转型。即使有人同意，挑战也在于时机。自3月份以来，通用汽车因大规模召回雪佛兰电动汽车而遭受了代价高昂且令人尴尬的挫折。即使人们相信管理层的愿景，人们也会想象一些购车者在看到烧焦的雪佛兰Bolt的照片后不愿意购买通用汽车电动汽车。</blockquote> GM is currently 11.9% below its 2021 high close of $63.92, set on June 8. With 7 months since my last analysis, and with the market and the analysts responding favorably to GM’s vision, I am revisiting my rating on GM.<blockquote>通用汽车目前较6月8日创下的2021年收盘价63.92美元低11.9%。距离我上次分析已经过去7个月了，随着市场和分析师对通用汽车的愿景反应良好，我正在重新审视我对通用汽车的评级。</blockquote> Wall Street Consensus Outlook for GM<blockquote>华尔街对通用汽车的共识前景</blockquote> ETrade’s calculation of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using the views of 13 ranked analysts who have issued ratings and price targets for GM within the past 90 days. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus 12-month price target is 27.5% above the current share price. There is a fairly high level of dispersion in the price targets, which&nbsp;reduces confidence&nbsp;in the consensus value. Of the 13 analysts, 12 give GM a buy rating and 1 assigns a neutral rating.<blockquote>ETrade对华尔街共识前景的计算是根据过去90天内发布通用汽车评级和价格目标的13位排名分析师的观点计算得出的。共识评级为看涨，共识12个月目标价比当前股价高出27.5%。价格目标存在相当高的离散度，这降低了对共识价值的信心。在13名分析师中，12名给予通用汽车买入评级，1名给予中性评级。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31b957237cbf2644c75e372831ed0714\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"838\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Wall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for GM (Source: ETrade)<blockquote>华尔街分析师对通用汽车的一致评级和12个月目标价（来源：ETrade）</blockquote> Seeking Alpha’s version of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using ratings and prices targets from 21 analysts. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus price target is 26.7% above the current share price. Only 1 analyst is neutral and the other 20 are bullish.<blockquote>Seeking Alpha版本的华尔街共识前景是使用21位分析师的评级和价格目标计算得出的。一致评级为看涨，一致目标价较当前股价高出26.7%。只有1名分析师持中性态度，其他20名分析师持看涨态度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbd40949c8ccc5a730e0aa07c04e15a8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"645\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Wall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for GM (Source: Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>华尔街分析师对通用汽车的一致评级和12个月目标价（来源：Seeking Alpha）</blockquote> The good news for GM shareholders is that the analysts are almost uniformly bullish on GM and the average 12-month price target is about 27% above the current level. There are somewhat cautionary considerations, however. First, the spread among the price targets is high, which means that there is not a lot of confidence in the outlook. Second, the timing of a share price recovery is hard to predict. The analysts were bullish back in March, as well.<blockquote>对于通用汽车股东来说，好消息是分析师几乎一致看好通用汽车，12个月平均目标价比当前水平高出约27%。然而，也有一些谨慎的考虑。首先，价格目标之间的利差很高，这意味着对前景没有太大信心。其次，股价回升的时机很难预测。分析师在三月份也持乐观态度。</blockquote> Market-Implied Outlook for GM<blockquote>通用汽车的市场隐含前景</blockquote> I have analyzed the prices of call and put options at a range of strike prices, all expiring on January 21, 2022 to generate the market-implied outlook for the next 3.5 months (from today until the expiration date). In my previous analysis, I also calculated a market-implied outlook using options with this expiration date. I have also generated the market-implied outlook to mid 2022, a period of 8.3 months, by analyzing options that expire on June 21, 2022.<blockquote>我分析了一系列执行价格的看涨期权和看跌期权的价格，这些期权都将于2022年1月21日到期，以生成未来3.5个月（从今天到到期日）的市场隐含前景。在我之前的分析中，我还使用具有此到期日的期权计算了市场隐含前景。我还通过分析2022年6月21日到期的期权，生成了2022年中期（8.3个月）的市场隐含前景。</blockquote> The standard presentation of the market-implied outlook is a probability distribution of price return, with probability on the vertical axis and return on the horizontal.<blockquote>市场隐含前景的标准表示是价格回报的概率分布，概率在纵轴，回报在横轴。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd025ceee857934bb5992eb6c234bd6d\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 3.5-month period from today until January 21, 2022 (Source: Author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)<blockquote>从今天到2022年1月21日的3.5个月期间通用汽车的市场隐含价格回报概率（来源：作者使用ETrade期权报价进行计算）</blockquote> The market-implied outlook for GM for the 3.5-month period between now and January 21, 2022 is generally symmetric, although the peak probability is slightly tilted towards negative returns, corresponding to a price return of -1.5%. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 35.7%, quite high for an individual stock.<blockquote>从现在到2022年1月21日的3.5个月期间，通用汽车的市场隐含前景总体上是对称的，尽管峰值概率略有向负回报倾斜，对应的价格回报为-1.5%。这种分布得出的年化波动率为35.7%，对于个股来说相当高。</blockquote> To make it easier to directly compare the probabilities of positive and negative returns, I rotate the negative return side of the distribution about the vertical axis (see chart below).<blockquote>为了更容易直接比较正回报和负回报的概率，我围绕垂直轴旋转分布的负回报侧（见下图）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc3728611fe98a00c0edfa693bae10b4\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 3.5-month period from today until January 21, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)<blockquote>通用汽车从今天到2022年1月21日3.5个月期间的市场隐含价格回报概率。分布的负回报侧已绕垂直轴旋转（来源：作者使用ETrade的期权报价进行计算）</blockquote> This view shows that the probabilities of positive and negative returns are almost identical for most outcomes (the solid blue line and the dashed red line are very close to one another). The exception is for small-magnitude price returns (+/- 5%).<blockquote>这种观点表明，对于大多数结果，正回报和负回报的概率几乎相同（蓝色实线和红色虚线彼此非常接近）。例外情况是小规模价格回报（+/-5%）。</blockquote> Theory predicts that the market-implied outlook will tend to be negatively biased because risk-averse investors pay more than fair value for put options to limit losses in long positions. In the financial literature, the market-implied outlook is often referred to as being risk-neutral. What this means is that the market-implied outlook would be unbiased if investors, in aggregate, were risk-neutral. Investors, collectively, are risk-averse - demanding to be paid a premium to take on risk (the equity risk premium). For this reason, a market-implied outlook with closely matching probabilities between positive and negative returns, as we see here, is actually a slightly bullish view.<blockquote>理论预测，市场隐含的前景将倾向于负面偏差，因为规避风险的投资者为看跌期权支付的价格高于公允价值，以限制多头头寸的损失。在金融文献中，市场隐含的前景通常被称为风险中性的。这意味着，如果投资者总体上风险中性，市场隐含的前景将是无偏见的。总的来说，投资者是规避风险的——要求获得承担风险的溢价（股票风险溢价）。因此，正如我们在这里看到的，正回报和负回报之间概率密切匹配的市场隐含前景实际上是一种稍微看涨的观点。</blockquote> The market-implied outlook to the middle of 2022 (8.3 months), calculated using the prices of call and put options that expire on June 17, 2022, exhibits more of a negative tilt. Qualitative consideration of the potential for a negative bias leads me to characterize this outlook as neutral, perhaps with a slight bearish tilt. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 36.5%.<blockquote>使用2022年6月17日到期的看涨期权和看跌期权价格计算的2022年中期（8.3个月）的市场隐含前景显示出更多的负面倾斜。对潜在负面偏见的定性考虑使我将这种前景描述为中性，也许有轻微的看跌倾向。由此分布得出的年化波动率为36.5%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7731002b4fcd2fbea3e50f32512c507\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 8.3-month period from today until June 17, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)<blockquote>通用汽车从今天到2022年6月17日的8.3个月期间的市场隐含价格回报概率。分布的负回报侧已绕垂直轴旋转（来源：作者使用ETrade的期权报价进行计算）</blockquote> Contrast the current market-implied outlooks for GM with the 10.6-month outlook to January 2022 from my&nbsp;previous analysis&nbsp;in March, which was substantially bearish. In this outlook, the probabilities of negative price returns were much higher relative to those for positive returns. The current market-implied outlook, slightly bullish to early 2022 and neutral to mid-2022, is much more favorable than the outlook from my earlier analysis.<blockquote>将通用汽车当前的市场隐含前景与我之前3月份分析中截至2022年1月的10.6个月前景进行对比，该分析非常悲观。在这种前景中，相对于正回报，负价格回报的概率要高得多。目前市场隐含的前景，2022年初略有看涨，2022年中期中性，比我之前分析的前景要有利得多。</blockquote> Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> GM is at an important transition point in its history. The company needs to rapidly and convincingly shift away from traditional internal combustion vehicles and towards EVs and autonomous vehicles. The Wall Street analysts, as a group, are confident that GM can make strides in this direction and the analyst consensus has gotten more bullish through 2021. The Wall Street consensus rating is bullish, with about 27% expected 12-month price appreciation.<blockquote>通用汽车正处于其历史上的一个重要转折点。该公司需要迅速、令人信服地从传统内燃机汽车转向电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车。华尔街分析师作为一个群体，相信通用汽车能够在这个方向上取得长足进步，并且分析师的共识在2021年变得更加乐观。华尔街一致评级为看涨，约27%的人预计12个月价格将上涨。</blockquote> The projected volatility for GM, calculated from the market-implied outlook, is about 36%. This is a fairly high level of volatility, but looks reasonable if we believe that the expected return is 27%. As a rule of thumb for a buy, I want to see expected return that is at or above ½ of the volatility.<blockquote>根据市场隐含前景计算，通用汽车的预计波动性约为36%。这是一个相当高的波动水平，但如果我们相信预期回报率为27%，那么看起来是合理的。作为买入的经验法则，我希望看到预期回报等于或高于波动率的1/2。</blockquote> Taking the analyst expected return at face value, GM easily surpasses this threshold. The market-implied outlook to early 2022 is slightly bullish, shifting to neutral by mid-2022. The market-implied outlook for GM has improved dramatically since March, when it was significantly bearish. I am changing my rating on GM from neutral to bullish.<blockquote>从分析师的预期回报率来看，通用汽车轻松超过了这一门槛。市场对2022年初的隐含前景略有看涨，到2022年中期将转向中性。自3月份以来，市场对通用汽车的隐含前景已显着改善，当时通用汽车的前景明显看跌。我将对通用汽车的评级从中性改为看涨。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Favorable Outlook For GM<blockquote>通用汽车前景良好</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFavorable Outlook For GM<blockquote>通用汽车前景良好</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-10-08 11:10\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>GM has struggled with the transition to EVs and other technology-forward efforts.</li> <li>The Wall Street consensus is that GM will succeed sooner rather than later.</li> <li>The market-implied outlook (derived from options prices) has shifted to a substantially more positive near-term view.</li> <li>I see GM as having a favorable risk-return profile.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/139e056979d4a81394ff8a2299dd40df\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>通用汽车一直在努力向电动汽车和其他技术前沿的过渡。</li><li>华尔街的共识是通用汽车迟早会成功。</li><li>市场隐含的前景（来自期权价格）已经转向更加积极的近期观点。</li><li>我认为通用汽车具有良好的风险回报状况。</li></ul>JHVEPhoto/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote> General Motors(NYSE:GM)seems to be having a moment, with the share price rising 4.5% today, following an inspirational&nbsp;presentation to analysts. The company outlined its plan to be a leader in EVs and a vision for building a&nbsp;million self-driving cars by 2030. For GM, as with Ford(NYSE:F), the company recognizes that earnings growth and share valuation depend on aggressive technology-driven development. If GM can convince the market, and then demonstrate, that there is a real roadmap to higher-margin EVs and self-driving vehicles, the shares should demand a considerably higher price. After all, GM’s forward P/E is&nbsp;8.8, as compared to TSLA’s&nbsp;144.8.<blockquote>通用汽车(NYSE：GM)似乎迎来了一个时刻，在向分析师做了一次鼓舞人心的演讲后，今天股价上涨了4.5%。该公司概述了成为电动汽车领导者的计划以及到2030年生产100万辆自动驾驶汽车的愿景。对于通用汽车来说，与福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）一样，该公司认识到盈利增长和股票估值取决于积极的技术驱动发展。如果通用汽车能够说服市场，然后证明有一个真正的高利润电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车的路线图，那么该股的价格应该会高得多。毕竟，通用汽车的预期市盈率为8.8，而特斯拉的预期市盈率为144.8。</blockquote> Intriguingly, the Wall Street analysts have already priced an outlook for GM’s transformation. The Wall Street analyst&nbsp;consensus price target&nbsp;for GM has surged to $71.3, as compared to $46.6 in February of 2020, right before COVID hit and $51 at the end of 2020. At the current share price of $56.30, the Wall Street consensus (as calculated by&nbsp;Seeking Alpha) is for 12-month price appreciation of 26.7%.<blockquote>有趣的是，华尔街分析师已经对通用汽车转型的前景进行了定价。华尔街分析师对通用汽车的一致目标价已飙升至71.3美元，而2020年2月新冠疫情爆发前为46.6美元，2020年底为51美元。按目前56.30美元的股价计算，华尔街的共识（由Seeking Alpha计算）是12个月内股价上涨26.7%。</blockquote> When I&nbsp;last analyzed GM on March 7, 2021, seven months ago, the Wall Street consensus outlook was already bullish, with a 12-month price target that was about 20% above the share price at that time. Of the 19 analysts included in Seeking Alpha’s consensus outlook, 17 were bullish and 2 were neutral. I assigned GM a neutral rating at that time, largely because the outlook implied by options prices, in contrast to the Wall Street consensus, was bearish. The options market to early 2022 was indicating elevated probabilities of price declines. I compromised between the bullish Wall Street and the bearish options market view with a neutral rating. Since my post was published, GM has gained 4% (including the big rise today), as compared to 15.1% in price appreciation for the S&amp;P 500.<blockquote>当我上次在7个月前的2021年3月7日分析通用汽车时，华尔街的普遍前景已经看涨，12个月目标价比当时的股价高出约20%。在Seeking Alpha一致展望中的19名分析师中，17名分析师看涨，2名分析师中性。我当时给通用汽车的评级是中性的，主要是因为与华尔街的共识相反，期权价格所暗示的前景是看跌的。截至2022年初的期权市场表明价格下跌的可能性很高。我在看涨华尔街和看跌期权市场观点之间做出了妥协，给予了中性评级。自从我的文章发表以来，通用汽车已经上涨了4%（包括今天的大幅上涨），而标普500的价格上涨了15.1%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c074188d666f33a0849eb28c23242522\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Performance of GM vs. the S&amp;P 500 over the past 7 months (Source: Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>通用汽车与标普500过去7个月的表现（来源：Seeking Alpha）</blockquote> Using options prices to build a probabilistic price return outlook is conceptually straightforward. The price of an option represents the market’s consensus estimate for the probability that the price of the underlying stock (GM, in this case) will rise above (call option) or fall below (put option) a specific level (the strike price) between now and when the option expires. By analyzing calls and puts at a range of strike prices and a common expiration date, it is possible to calculate a probabilistic outlook for the underlying security that reconciles the options prices. This is referred to as the market-implied outlook. For readers seeking more information on this approach, I have written an&nbsp;overview post, including links to the relevant financial literature.<blockquote>使用期权价格来构建概率价格回报前景在概念上很简单。期权价格代表市场对标的股票（在本例中为通用汽车）价格高于（看涨期权期权）或低于（看跌期权）特定水平（执行价格）的概率的一致估计。）从现在到期权到期。通过分析一系列执行价格和共同到期日的评级和看跌期权，可以计算出与期权价格相一致的基础证券的概率前景。这被称为市场隐含前景。对于寻求更多关于这种方法的信息的读者，我写了一篇概述文章，包括相关金融文献的链接。</blockquote> It is clear today, as it was for my last analysis, that GM is relying on the ability to compete with EVs and autonomous vehicles. The analysts are valuing the company assuming that GM will successfully make this transition. Even if one agrees, the challenge is in the timing. Since March, GM has suffered an expensive and embarrassing setback with the&nbsp;massive recall&nbsp;of Chevy electric vehicles. Even if one buys into management’s vision, one imagines that some car buyers will be reluctant to buy a GM EV after seeing pictures of&nbsp;charred Chevy Bolts.<blockquote>今天很明显，正如我上次的分析一样，通用汽车依靠的是与电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车竞争的能力。分析师对该公司进行估值时假设通用汽车将成功实现这一转型。即使有人同意，挑战也在于时机。自3月份以来，通用汽车因大规模召回雪佛兰电动汽车而遭受了代价高昂且令人尴尬的挫折。即使人们相信管理层的愿景，人们也会想象一些购车者在看到烧焦的雪佛兰Bolt的照片后不愿意购买通用汽车电动汽车。</blockquote> GM is currently 11.9% below its 2021 high close of $63.92, set on June 8. With 7 months since my last analysis, and with the market and the analysts responding favorably to GM’s vision, I am revisiting my rating on GM.<blockquote>通用汽车目前较6月8日创下的2021年收盘价63.92美元低11.9%。距离我上次分析已经过去7个月了，随着市场和分析师对通用汽车的愿景反应良好，我正在重新审视我对通用汽车的评级。</blockquote> Wall Street Consensus Outlook for GM<blockquote>华尔街对通用汽车的共识前景</blockquote> ETrade’s calculation of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using the views of 13 ranked analysts who have issued ratings and price targets for GM within the past 90 days. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus 12-month price target is 27.5% above the current share price. There is a fairly high level of dispersion in the price targets, which&nbsp;reduces confidence&nbsp;in the consensus value. Of the 13 analysts, 12 give GM a buy rating and 1 assigns a neutral rating.<blockquote>ETrade对华尔街共识前景的计算是根据过去90天内发布通用汽车评级和价格目标的13位排名分析师的观点计算得出的。共识评级为看涨，共识12个月目标价比当前股价高出27.5%。价格目标存在相当高的离散度，这降低了对共识价值的信心。在13名分析师中，12名给予通用汽车买入评级，1名给予中性评级。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31b957237cbf2644c75e372831ed0714\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"838\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Wall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for GM (Source: ETrade)<blockquote>华尔街分析师对通用汽车的一致评级和12个月目标价（来源：ETrade）</blockquote> Seeking Alpha’s version of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using ratings and prices targets from 21 analysts. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus price target is 26.7% above the current share price. Only 1 analyst is neutral and the other 20 are bullish.<blockquote>Seeking Alpha版本的华尔街共识前景是使用21位分析师的评级和价格目标计算得出的。一致评级为看涨，一致目标价较当前股价高出26.7%。只有1名分析师持中性态度，其他20名分析师持看涨态度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbd40949c8ccc5a730e0aa07c04e15a8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"645\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Wall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for GM (Source: Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>华尔街分析师对通用汽车的一致评级和12个月目标价（来源：Seeking Alpha）</blockquote> The good news for GM shareholders is that the analysts are almost uniformly bullish on GM and the average 12-month price target is about 27% above the current level. There are somewhat cautionary considerations, however. First, the spread among the price targets is high, which means that there is not a lot of confidence in the outlook. Second, the timing of a share price recovery is hard to predict. The analysts were bullish back in March, as well.<blockquote>对于通用汽车股东来说，好消息是分析师几乎一致看好通用汽车，12个月平均目标价比当前水平高出约27%。然而，也有一些谨慎的考虑。首先，价格目标之间的利差很高，这意味着对前景没有太大信心。其次，股价回升的时机很难预测。分析师在三月份也持乐观态度。</blockquote> Market-Implied Outlook for GM<blockquote>通用汽车的市场隐含前景</blockquote> I have analyzed the prices of call and put options at a range of strike prices, all expiring on January 21, 2022 to generate the market-implied outlook for the next 3.5 months (from today until the expiration date). In my previous analysis, I also calculated a market-implied outlook using options with this expiration date. I have also generated the market-implied outlook to mid 2022, a period of 8.3 months, by analyzing options that expire on June 21, 2022.<blockquote>我分析了一系列执行价格的看涨期权和看跌期权的价格，这些期权都将于2022年1月21日到期，以生成未来3.5个月（从今天到到期日）的市场隐含前景。在我之前的分析中，我还使用具有此到期日的期权计算了市场隐含前景。我还通过分析2022年6月21日到期的期权，生成了2022年中期（8.3个月）的市场隐含前景。</blockquote> The standard presentation of the market-implied outlook is a probability distribution of price return, with probability on the vertical axis and return on the horizontal.<blockquote>市场隐含前景的标准表示是价格回报的概率分布，概率在纵轴，回报在横轴。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd025ceee857934bb5992eb6c234bd6d\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 3.5-month period from today until January 21, 2022 (Source: Author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)<blockquote>从今天到2022年1月21日的3.5个月期间通用汽车的市场隐含价格回报概率（来源：作者使用ETrade期权报价进行计算）</blockquote> The market-implied outlook for GM for the 3.5-month period between now and January 21, 2022 is generally symmetric, although the peak probability is slightly tilted towards negative returns, corresponding to a price return of -1.5%. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 35.7%, quite high for an individual stock.<blockquote>从现在到2022年1月21日的3.5个月期间，通用汽车的市场隐含前景总体上是对称的，尽管峰值概率略有向负回报倾斜，对应的价格回报为-1.5%。这种分布得出的年化波动率为35.7%，对于个股来说相当高。</blockquote> To make it easier to directly compare the probabilities of positive and negative returns, I rotate the negative return side of the distribution about the vertical axis (see chart below).<blockquote>为了更容易直接比较正回报和负回报的概率，我围绕垂直轴旋转分布的负回报侧（见下图）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc3728611fe98a00c0edfa693bae10b4\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 3.5-month period from today until January 21, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)<blockquote>通用汽车从今天到2022年1月21日3.5个月期间的市场隐含价格回报概率。分布的负回报侧已绕垂直轴旋转（来源：作者使用ETrade的期权报价进行计算）</blockquote> This view shows that the probabilities of positive and negative returns are almost identical for most outcomes (the solid blue line and the dashed red line are very close to one another). The exception is for small-magnitude price returns (+/- 5%).<blockquote>这种观点表明，对于大多数结果，正回报和负回报的概率几乎相同（蓝色实线和红色虚线彼此非常接近）。例外情况是小规模价格回报（+/-5%）。</blockquote> Theory predicts that the market-implied outlook will tend to be negatively biased because risk-averse investors pay more than fair value for put options to limit losses in long positions. In the financial literature, the market-implied outlook is often referred to as being risk-neutral. What this means is that the market-implied outlook would be unbiased if investors, in aggregate, were risk-neutral. Investors, collectively, are risk-averse - demanding to be paid a premium to take on risk (the equity risk premium). For this reason, a market-implied outlook with closely matching probabilities between positive and negative returns, as we see here, is actually a slightly bullish view.<blockquote>理论预测，市场隐含的前景将倾向于负面偏差，因为规避风险的投资者为看跌期权支付的价格高于公允价值，以限制多头头寸的损失。在金融文献中，市场隐含的前景通常被称为风险中性的。这意味着，如果投资者总体上风险中性，市场隐含的前景将是无偏见的。总的来说，投资者是规避风险的——要求获得承担风险的溢价（股票风险溢价）。因此，正如我们在这里看到的，正回报和负回报之间概率密切匹配的市场隐含前景实际上是一种稍微看涨的观点。</blockquote> The market-implied outlook to the middle of 2022 (8.3 months), calculated using the prices of call and put options that expire on June 17, 2022, exhibits more of a negative tilt. Qualitative consideration of the potential for a negative bias leads me to characterize this outlook as neutral, perhaps with a slight bearish tilt. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 36.5%.<blockquote>使用2022年6月17日到期的看涨期权和看跌期权价格计算的2022年中期（8.3个月）的市场隐含前景显示出更多的负面倾斜。对潜在负面偏见的定性考虑使我将这种前景描述为中性，也许有轻微的看跌倾向。由此分布得出的年化波动率为36.5%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7731002b4fcd2fbea3e50f32512c507\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 8.3-month period from today until June 17, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)<blockquote>通用汽车从今天到2022年6月17日的8.3个月期间的市场隐含价格回报概率。分布的负回报侧已绕垂直轴旋转（来源：作者使用ETrade的期权报价进行计算）</blockquote> Contrast the current market-implied outlooks for GM with the 10.6-month outlook to January 2022 from my&nbsp;previous analysis&nbsp;in March, which was substantially bearish. In this outlook, the probabilities of negative price returns were much higher relative to those for positive returns. The current market-implied outlook, slightly bullish to early 2022 and neutral to mid-2022, is much more favorable than the outlook from my earlier analysis.<blockquote>将通用汽车当前的市场隐含前景与我之前3月份分析中截至2022年1月的10.6个月前景进行对比，该分析非常悲观。在这种前景中，相对于正回报，负价格回报的概率要高得多。目前市场隐含的前景，2022年初略有看涨，2022年中期中性，比我之前分析的前景要有利得多。</blockquote> Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> GM is at an important transition point in its history. The company needs to rapidly and convincingly shift away from traditional internal combustion vehicles and towards EVs and autonomous vehicles. The Wall Street analysts, as a group, are confident that GM can make strides in this direction and the analyst consensus has gotten more bullish through 2021. The Wall Street consensus rating is bullish, with about 27% expected 12-month price appreciation.<blockquote>通用汽车正处于其历史上的一个重要转折点。该公司需要迅速、令人信服地从传统内燃机汽车转向电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车。华尔街分析师作为一个群体，相信通用汽车能够在这个方向上取得长足进步，并且分析师的共识在2021年变得更加乐观。华尔街一致评级为看涨，约27%的人预计12个月价格将上涨。</blockquote> The projected volatility for GM, calculated from the market-implied outlook, is about 36%. This is a fairly high level of volatility, but looks reasonable if we believe that the expected return is 27%. As a rule of thumb for a buy, I want to see expected return that is at or above ½ of the volatility.<blockquote>根据市场隐含前景计算，通用汽车的预计波动性约为36%。这是一个相当高的波动水平，但如果我们相信预期回报率为27%，那么看起来是合理的。作为买入的经验法则，我希望看到预期回报等于或高于波动率的1/2。</blockquote> Taking the analyst expected return at face value, GM easily surpasses this threshold. The market-implied outlook to early 2022 is slightly bullish, shifting to neutral by mid-2022. The market-implied outlook for GM has improved dramatically since March, when it was significantly bearish. I am changing my rating on GM from neutral to bullish.<blockquote>从分析师的预期回报率来看，通用汽车轻松超过了这一门槛。市场对2022年初的隐含前景略有看涨，到2022年中期将转向中性。自3月份以来，市场对通用汽车的隐含前景已显着改善，当时通用汽车的前景明显看跌。我将对通用汽车的评级从中性改为看涨。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458959-favorable-outlook-for-gm\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458959-favorable-outlook-for-gm","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128736762","content_text":"Summary\n\nGM has struggled with the transition to EVs and other technology-forward efforts.\nThe Wall Street consensus is that GM will succeed sooner rather than later.\nThe market-implied outlook (derived from options prices) has shifted to a substantially more positive near-term view.\nI see GM as having a favorable risk-return profile.\n\nJHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nGeneral Motors(NYSE:GM)seems to be having a moment, with the share price rising 4.5% today, following an inspirational presentation to analysts. The company outlined its plan to be a leader in EVs and a vision for building a million self-driving cars by 2030. For GM, as with Ford(NYSE:F), the company recognizes that earnings growth and share valuation depend on aggressive technology-driven development. If GM can convince the market, and then demonstrate, that there is a real roadmap to higher-margin EVs and self-driving vehicles, the shares should demand a considerably higher price. After all, GM’s forward P/E is 8.8, as compared to TSLA’s 144.8.\nIntriguingly, the Wall Street analysts have already priced an outlook for GM’s transformation. The Wall Street analyst consensus price target for GM has surged to $71.3, as compared to $46.6 in February of 2020, right before COVID hit and $51 at the end of 2020. At the current share price of $56.30, the Wall Street consensus (as calculated by Seeking Alpha) is for 12-month price appreciation of 26.7%.\nWhen I last analyzed GM on March 7, 2021, seven months ago, the Wall Street consensus outlook was already bullish, with a 12-month price target that was about 20% above the share price at that time. Of the 19 analysts included in Seeking Alpha’s consensus outlook, 17 were bullish and 2 were neutral. I assigned GM a neutral rating at that time, largely because the outlook implied by options prices, in contrast to the Wall Street consensus, was bearish. The options market to early 2022 was indicating elevated probabilities of price declines. I compromised between the bullish Wall Street and the bearish options market view with a neutral rating. Since my post was published, GM has gained 4% (including the big rise today), as compared to 15.1% in price appreciation for the S&P 500.\nPerformance of GM vs. the S&P 500 over the past 7 months (Source: Seeking Alpha)\nUsing options prices to build a probabilistic price return outlook is conceptually straightforward. The price of an option represents the market’s consensus estimate for the probability that the price of the underlying stock (GM, in this case) will rise above (call option) or fall below (put option) a specific level (the strike price) between now and when the option expires. By analyzing calls and puts at a range of strike prices and a common expiration date, it is possible to calculate a probabilistic outlook for the underlying security that reconciles the options prices. This is referred to as the market-implied outlook. For readers seeking more information on this approach, I have written an overview post, including links to the relevant financial literature.\nIt is clear today, as it was for my last analysis, that GM is relying on the ability to compete with EVs and autonomous vehicles. The analysts are valuing the company assuming that GM will successfully make this transition. Even if one agrees, the challenge is in the timing. Since March, GM has suffered an expensive and embarrassing setback with the massive recall of Chevy electric vehicles. Even if one buys into management’s vision, one imagines that some car buyers will be reluctant to buy a GM EV after seeing pictures of charred Chevy Bolts.\nGM is currently 11.9% below its 2021 high close of $63.92, set on June 8. With 7 months since my last analysis, and with the market and the analysts responding favorably to GM’s vision, I am revisiting my rating on GM.\nWall Street Consensus Outlook for GM\nETrade’s calculation of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using the views of 13 ranked analysts who have issued ratings and price targets for GM within the past 90 days. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus 12-month price target is 27.5% above the current share price. There is a fairly high level of dispersion in the price targets, which reduces confidence in the consensus value. Of the 13 analysts, 12 give GM a buy rating and 1 assigns a neutral rating.\nWall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for GM (Source: ETrade)\nSeeking Alpha’s version of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using ratings and prices targets from 21 analysts. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus price target is 26.7% above the current share price. Only 1 analyst is neutral and the other 20 are bullish.\nWall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for GM (Source: Seeking Alpha)\nThe good news for GM shareholders is that the analysts are almost uniformly bullish on GM and the average 12-month price target is about 27% above the current level. There are somewhat cautionary considerations, however. First, the spread among the price targets is high, which means that there is not a lot of confidence in the outlook. Second, the timing of a share price recovery is hard to predict. The analysts were bullish back in March, as well.\nMarket-Implied Outlook for GM\nI have analyzed the prices of call and put options at a range of strike prices, all expiring on January 21, 2022 to generate the market-implied outlook for the next 3.5 months (from today until the expiration date). In my previous analysis, I also calculated a market-implied outlook using options with this expiration date. I have also generated the market-implied outlook to mid 2022, a period of 8.3 months, by analyzing options that expire on June 21, 2022.\nThe standard presentation of the market-implied outlook is a probability distribution of price return, with probability on the vertical axis and return on the horizontal.\nMarket-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 3.5-month period from today until January 21, 2022 (Source: Author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)\nThe market-implied outlook for GM for the 3.5-month period between now and January 21, 2022 is generally symmetric, although the peak probability is slightly tilted towards negative returns, corresponding to a price return of -1.5%. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 35.7%, quite high for an individual stock.\nTo make it easier to directly compare the probabilities of positive and negative returns, I rotate the negative return side of the distribution about the vertical axis (see chart below).\nMarket-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 3.5-month period from today until January 21, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)\nThis view shows that the probabilities of positive and negative returns are almost identical for most outcomes (the solid blue line and the dashed red line are very close to one another). The exception is for small-magnitude price returns (+/- 5%).\nTheory predicts that the market-implied outlook will tend to be negatively biased because risk-averse investors pay more than fair value for put options to limit losses in long positions. In the financial literature, the market-implied outlook is often referred to as being risk-neutral. What this means is that the market-implied outlook would be unbiased if investors, in aggregate, were risk-neutral. Investors, collectively, are risk-averse - demanding to be paid a premium to take on risk (the equity risk premium). For this reason, a market-implied outlook with closely matching probabilities between positive and negative returns, as we see here, is actually a slightly bullish view.\nThe market-implied outlook to the middle of 2022 (8.3 months), calculated using the prices of call and put options that expire on June 17, 2022, exhibits more of a negative tilt. Qualitative consideration of the potential for a negative bias leads me to characterize this outlook as neutral, perhaps with a slight bearish tilt. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 36.5%.\nMarket-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 8.3-month period from today until June 17, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)\nContrast the current market-implied outlooks for GM with the 10.6-month outlook to January 2022 from my previous analysis in March, which was substantially bearish. In this outlook, the probabilities of negative price returns were much higher relative to those for positive returns. The current market-implied outlook, slightly bullish to early 2022 and neutral to mid-2022, is much more favorable than the outlook from my earlier analysis.\nSummary\nGM is at an important transition point in its history. The company needs to rapidly and convincingly shift away from traditional internal combustion vehicles and towards EVs and autonomous vehicles. The Wall Street analysts, as a group, are confident that GM can make strides in this direction and the analyst consensus has gotten more bullish through 2021. The Wall Street consensus rating is bullish, with about 27% expected 12-month price appreciation.\nThe projected volatility for GM, calculated from the market-implied outlook, is about 36%. This is a fairly high level of volatility, but looks reasonable if we believe that the expected return is 27%. As a rule of thumb for a buy, I want to see expected return that is at or above ½ of the volatility.\nTaking the analyst expected return at face value, GM easily surpasses this threshold. The market-implied outlook to early 2022 is slightly bullish, shifting to neutral by mid-2022. The market-implied outlook for GM has improved dramatically since March, when it was significantly bearish. I am changing my rating on GM from neutral to bullish.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":823726744,"gmtCreate":1633664276280,"gmtModify":1633664276541,"author":{"id":"4090160645832330","authorId":"4090160645832330","name":"egg3030","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dba6ef8bd45b7f1dc2dc78586fe68f1c","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4090160645832330","idStr":"4090160645832330"},"htmlText":"But what about the larger infrastructure issues","listText":"But what about the larger infrastructure issues","text":"But what about the larger infrastructure issues","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/823726744","repostId":1128736762,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128736762","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633662653,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1128736762?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 11:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Favorable Outlook For GM<blockquote>通用汽车前景良好</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128736762","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nGM has struggled with the transition to EVs and other technology-forward efforts.\nThe Wall ","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>GM has struggled with the transition to EVs and other technology-forward efforts.</li> <li>The Wall Street consensus is that GM will succeed sooner rather than later.</li> <li>The market-implied outlook (derived from options prices) has shifted to a substantially more positive near-term view.</li> <li>I see GM as having a favorable risk-return profile.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/139e056979d4a81394ff8a2299dd40df\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>通用汽车一直在努力向电动汽车和其他技术前沿的过渡。</li><li>华尔街的共识是通用汽车迟早会成功。</li><li>市场隐含的前景（来自期权价格）已经转向更加积极的近期观点。</li><li>我认为通用汽车具有良好的风险回报状况。</li></ul>JHVEPhoto/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote> General Motors(NYSE:GM)seems to be having a moment, with the share price rising 4.5% today, following an inspirational&nbsp;presentation to analysts. The company outlined its plan to be a leader in EVs and a vision for building a&nbsp;million self-driving cars by 2030. For GM, as with Ford(NYSE:F), the company recognizes that earnings growth and share valuation depend on aggressive technology-driven development. If GM can convince the market, and then demonstrate, that there is a real roadmap to higher-margin EVs and self-driving vehicles, the shares should demand a considerably higher price. After all, GM’s forward P/E is&nbsp;8.8, as compared to TSLA’s&nbsp;144.8.<blockquote>通用汽车(NYSE：GM)似乎迎来了一个时刻，在向分析师做了一次鼓舞人心的演讲后，今天股价上涨了4.5%。该公司概述了成为电动汽车领导者的计划以及到2030年生产100万辆自动驾驶汽车的愿景。对于通用汽车来说，与福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）一样，该公司认识到盈利增长和股票估值取决于积极的技术驱动发展。如果通用汽车能够说服市场，然后证明有一个真正的高利润电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车的路线图，那么该股的价格应该会高得多。毕竟，通用汽车的预期市盈率为8.8，而特斯拉的预期市盈率为144.8。</blockquote> Intriguingly, the Wall Street analysts have already priced an outlook for GM’s transformation. The Wall Street analyst&nbsp;consensus price target&nbsp;for GM has surged to $71.3, as compared to $46.6 in February of 2020, right before COVID hit and $51 at the end of 2020. At the current share price of $56.30, the Wall Street consensus (as calculated by&nbsp;Seeking Alpha) is for 12-month price appreciation of 26.7%.<blockquote>有趣的是，华尔街分析师已经对通用汽车转型的前景进行了定价。华尔街分析师对通用汽车的一致目标价已飙升至71.3美元，而2020年2月新冠疫情爆发前为46.6美元，2020年底为51美元。按目前56.30美元的股价计算，华尔街的共识（由Seeking Alpha计算）是12个月内股价上涨26.7%。</blockquote> When I&nbsp;last analyzed GM on March 7, 2021, seven months ago, the Wall Street consensus outlook was already bullish, with a 12-month price target that was about 20% above the share price at that time. Of the 19 analysts included in Seeking Alpha’s consensus outlook, 17 were bullish and 2 were neutral. I assigned GM a neutral rating at that time, largely because the outlook implied by options prices, in contrast to the Wall Street consensus, was bearish. The options market to early 2022 was indicating elevated probabilities of price declines. I compromised between the bullish Wall Street and the bearish options market view with a neutral rating. Since my post was published, GM has gained 4% (including the big rise today), as compared to 15.1% in price appreciation for the S&amp;P 500.<blockquote>当我上次在7个月前的2021年3月7日分析通用汽车时，华尔街的普遍前景已经看涨，12个月目标价比当时的股价高出约20%。在Seeking Alpha一致展望中的19名分析师中，17名分析师看涨，2名分析师中性。我当时给通用汽车的评级是中性的，主要是因为与华尔街的共识相反，期权价格所暗示的前景是看跌的。截至2022年初的期权市场表明价格下跌的可能性很高。我在看涨华尔街和看跌期权市场观点之间做出了妥协，给予了中性评级。自从我的文章发表以来，通用汽车已经上涨了4%（包括今天的大幅上涨），而标普500的价格上涨了15.1%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c074188d666f33a0849eb28c23242522\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Performance of GM vs. the S&amp;P 500 over the past 7 months (Source: Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>通用汽车与标普500过去7个月的表现（来源：Seeking Alpha）</blockquote> Using options prices to build a probabilistic price return outlook is conceptually straightforward. The price of an option represents the market’s consensus estimate for the probability that the price of the underlying stock (GM, in this case) will rise above (call option) or fall below (put option) a specific level (the strike price) between now and when the option expires. By analyzing calls and puts at a range of strike prices and a common expiration date, it is possible to calculate a probabilistic outlook for the underlying security that reconciles the options prices. This is referred to as the market-implied outlook. For readers seeking more information on this approach, I have written an&nbsp;overview post, including links to the relevant financial literature.<blockquote>使用期权价格来构建概率价格回报前景在概念上很简单。期权价格代表市场对标的股票（在本例中为通用汽车）价格高于（看涨期权期权）或低于（看跌期权）特定水平（执行价格）的概率的一致估计。）从现在到期权到期。通过分析一系列执行价格和共同到期日的评级和看跌期权，可以计算出与期权价格相一致的基础证券的概率前景。这被称为市场隐含前景。对于寻求更多关于这种方法的信息的读者，我写了一篇概述文章，包括相关金融文献的链接。</blockquote> It is clear today, as it was for my last analysis, that GM is relying on the ability to compete with EVs and autonomous vehicles. The analysts are valuing the company assuming that GM will successfully make this transition. Even if one agrees, the challenge is in the timing. Since March, GM has suffered an expensive and embarrassing setback with the&nbsp;massive recall&nbsp;of Chevy electric vehicles. Even if one buys into management’s vision, one imagines that some car buyers will be reluctant to buy a GM EV after seeing pictures of&nbsp;charred Chevy Bolts.<blockquote>今天很明显，正如我上次的分析一样，通用汽车依靠的是与电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车竞争的能力。分析师对该公司进行估值时假设通用汽车将成功实现这一转型。即使有人同意，挑战也在于时机。自3月份以来，通用汽车因大规模召回雪佛兰电动汽车而遭受了代价高昂且令人尴尬的挫折。即使人们相信管理层的愿景，人们也会想象一些购车者在看到烧焦的雪佛兰Bolt的照片后不愿意购买通用汽车电动汽车。</blockquote> GM is currently 11.9% below its 2021 high close of $63.92, set on June 8. With 7 months since my last analysis, and with the market and the analysts responding favorably to GM’s vision, I am revisiting my rating on GM.<blockquote>通用汽车目前较6月8日创下的2021年收盘价63.92美元低11.9%。距离我上次分析已经过去7个月了，随着市场和分析师对通用汽车的愿景反应良好，我正在重新审视我对通用汽车的评级。</blockquote> Wall Street Consensus Outlook for GM<blockquote>华尔街对通用汽车的共识前景</blockquote> ETrade’s calculation of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using the views of 13 ranked analysts who have issued ratings and price targets for GM within the past 90 days. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus 12-month price target is 27.5% above the current share price. There is a fairly high level of dispersion in the price targets, which&nbsp;reduces confidence&nbsp;in the consensus value. Of the 13 analysts, 12 give GM a buy rating and 1 assigns a neutral rating.<blockquote>ETrade对华尔街共识前景的计算是根据过去90天内发布通用汽车评级和价格目标的13位排名分析师的观点计算得出的。共识评级为看涨，共识12个月目标价比当前股价高出27.5%。价格目标存在相当高的离散度，这降低了对共识价值的信心。在13名分析师中，12名给予通用汽车买入评级，1名给予中性评级。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31b957237cbf2644c75e372831ed0714\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"838\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Wall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for GM (Source: ETrade)<blockquote>华尔街分析师对通用汽车的一致评级和12个月目标价（来源：ETrade）</blockquote> Seeking Alpha’s version of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using ratings and prices targets from 21 analysts. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus price target is 26.7% above the current share price. Only 1 analyst is neutral and the other 20 are bullish.<blockquote>Seeking Alpha版本的华尔街共识前景是使用21位分析师的评级和价格目标计算得出的。一致评级为看涨，一致目标价较当前股价高出26.7%。只有1名分析师持中性态度，其他20名分析师持看涨态度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbd40949c8ccc5a730e0aa07c04e15a8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"645\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Wall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for GM (Source: Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>华尔街分析师对通用汽车的一致评级和12个月目标价（来源：Seeking Alpha）</blockquote> The good news for GM shareholders is that the analysts are almost uniformly bullish on GM and the average 12-month price target is about 27% above the current level. There are somewhat cautionary considerations, however. First, the spread among the price targets is high, which means that there is not a lot of confidence in the outlook. Second, the timing of a share price recovery is hard to predict. The analysts were bullish back in March, as well.<blockquote>对于通用汽车股东来说，好消息是分析师几乎一致看好通用汽车，12个月平均目标价比当前水平高出约27%。然而，也有一些谨慎的考虑。首先，价格目标之间的利差很高，这意味着对前景没有太大信心。其次，股价回升的时机很难预测。分析师在三月份也持乐观态度。</blockquote> Market-Implied Outlook for GM<blockquote>通用汽车的市场隐含前景</blockquote> I have analyzed the prices of call and put options at a range of strike prices, all expiring on January 21, 2022 to generate the market-implied outlook for the next 3.5 months (from today until the expiration date). In my previous analysis, I also calculated a market-implied outlook using options with this expiration date. I have also generated the market-implied outlook to mid 2022, a period of 8.3 months, by analyzing options that expire on June 21, 2022.<blockquote>我分析了一系列执行价格的看涨期权和看跌期权的价格，这些期权都将于2022年1月21日到期，以生成未来3.5个月（从今天到到期日）的市场隐含前景。在我之前的分析中，我还使用具有此到期日的期权计算了市场隐含前景。我还通过分析2022年6月21日到期的期权，生成了2022年中期（8.3个月）的市场隐含前景。</blockquote> The standard presentation of the market-implied outlook is a probability distribution of price return, with probability on the vertical axis and return on the horizontal.<blockquote>市场隐含前景的标准表示是价格回报的概率分布，概率在纵轴，回报在横轴。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd025ceee857934bb5992eb6c234bd6d\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 3.5-month period from today until January 21, 2022 (Source: Author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)<blockquote>从今天到2022年1月21日的3.5个月期间通用汽车的市场隐含价格回报概率（来源：作者使用ETrade期权报价进行计算）</blockquote> The market-implied outlook for GM for the 3.5-month period between now and January 21, 2022 is generally symmetric, although the peak probability is slightly tilted towards negative returns, corresponding to a price return of -1.5%. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 35.7%, quite high for an individual stock.<blockquote>从现在到2022年1月21日的3.5个月期间，通用汽车的市场隐含前景总体上是对称的，尽管峰值概率略有向负回报倾斜，对应的价格回报为-1.5%。这种分布得出的年化波动率为35.7%，对于个股来说相当高。</blockquote> To make it easier to directly compare the probabilities of positive and negative returns, I rotate the negative return side of the distribution about the vertical axis (see chart below).<blockquote>为了更容易直接比较正回报和负回报的概率，我围绕垂直轴旋转分布的负回报侧（见下图）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc3728611fe98a00c0edfa693bae10b4\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 3.5-month period from today until January 21, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)<blockquote>通用汽车从今天到2022年1月21日3.5个月期间的市场隐含价格回报概率。分布的负回报侧已绕垂直轴旋转（来源：作者使用ETrade的期权报价进行计算）</blockquote> This view shows that the probabilities of positive and negative returns are almost identical for most outcomes (the solid blue line and the dashed red line are very close to one another). The exception is for small-magnitude price returns (+/- 5%).<blockquote>这种观点表明，对于大多数结果，正回报和负回报的概率几乎相同（蓝色实线和红色虚线彼此非常接近）。例外情况是小规模价格回报（+/-5%）。</blockquote> Theory predicts that the market-implied outlook will tend to be negatively biased because risk-averse investors pay more than fair value for put options to limit losses in long positions. In the financial literature, the market-implied outlook is often referred to as being risk-neutral. What this means is that the market-implied outlook would be unbiased if investors, in aggregate, were risk-neutral. Investors, collectively, are risk-averse - demanding to be paid a premium to take on risk (the equity risk premium). For this reason, a market-implied outlook with closely matching probabilities between positive and negative returns, as we see here, is actually a slightly bullish view.<blockquote>理论预测，市场隐含的前景将倾向于负面偏差，因为规避风险的投资者为看跌期权支付的价格高于公允价值，以限制多头头寸的损失。在金融文献中，市场隐含的前景通常被称为风险中性的。这意味着，如果投资者总体上风险中性，市场隐含的前景将是无偏见的。总的来说，投资者是规避风险的——要求获得承担风险的溢价（股票风险溢价）。因此，正如我们在这里看到的，正回报和负回报之间概率密切匹配的市场隐含前景实际上是一种稍微看涨的观点。</blockquote> The market-implied outlook to the middle of 2022 (8.3 months), calculated using the prices of call and put options that expire on June 17, 2022, exhibits more of a negative tilt. Qualitative consideration of the potential for a negative bias leads me to characterize this outlook as neutral, perhaps with a slight bearish tilt. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 36.5%.<blockquote>使用2022年6月17日到期的看涨期权和看跌期权价格计算的2022年中期（8.3个月）的市场隐含前景显示出更多的负面倾斜。对潜在负面偏见的定性考虑使我将这种前景描述为中性，也许有轻微的看跌倾向。由此分布得出的年化波动率为36.5%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7731002b4fcd2fbea3e50f32512c507\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 8.3-month period from today until June 17, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)<blockquote>通用汽车从今天到2022年6月17日的8.3个月期间的市场隐含价格回报概率。分布的负回报侧已绕垂直轴旋转（来源：作者使用ETrade的期权报价进行计算）</blockquote> Contrast the current market-implied outlooks for GM with the 10.6-month outlook to January 2022 from my&nbsp;previous analysis&nbsp;in March, which was substantially bearish. In this outlook, the probabilities of negative price returns were much higher relative to those for positive returns. The current market-implied outlook, slightly bullish to early 2022 and neutral to mid-2022, is much more favorable than the outlook from my earlier analysis.<blockquote>将通用汽车当前的市场隐含前景与我之前3月份分析中截至2022年1月的10.6个月前景进行对比，该分析非常悲观。在这种前景中，相对于正回报，负价格回报的概率要高得多。目前市场隐含的前景，2022年初略有看涨，2022年中期中性，比我之前分析的前景要有利得多。</blockquote> Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> GM is at an important transition point in its history. The company needs to rapidly and convincingly shift away from traditional internal combustion vehicles and towards EVs and autonomous vehicles. The Wall Street analysts, as a group, are confident that GM can make strides in this direction and the analyst consensus has gotten more bullish through 2021. The Wall Street consensus rating is bullish, with about 27% expected 12-month price appreciation.<blockquote>通用汽车正处于其历史上的一个重要转折点。该公司需要迅速、令人信服地从传统内燃机汽车转向电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车。华尔街分析师作为一个群体，相信通用汽车能够在这个方向上取得长足进步，并且分析师的共识在2021年变得更加乐观。华尔街一致评级为看涨，约27%的人预计12个月价格将上涨。</blockquote> The projected volatility for GM, calculated from the market-implied outlook, is about 36%. This is a fairly high level of volatility, but looks reasonable if we believe that the expected return is 27%. As a rule of thumb for a buy, I want to see expected return that is at or above ½ of the volatility.<blockquote>根据市场隐含前景计算，通用汽车的预计波动性约为36%。这是一个相当高的波动水平，但如果我们相信预期回报率为27%，那么看起来是合理的。作为买入的经验法则，我希望看到预期回报等于或高于波动率的1/2。</blockquote> Taking the analyst expected return at face value, GM easily surpasses this threshold. The market-implied outlook to early 2022 is slightly bullish, shifting to neutral by mid-2022. The market-implied outlook for GM has improved dramatically since March, when it was significantly bearish. I am changing my rating on GM from neutral to bullish.<blockquote>从分析师的预期回报率来看，通用汽车轻松超过了这一门槛。市场对2022年初的隐含前景略有看涨，到2022年中期将转向中性。自3月份以来，市场对通用汽车的隐含前景已显着改善，当时通用汽车的前景明显看跌。我将对通用汽车的评级从中性改为看涨。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Favorable Outlook For GM<blockquote>通用汽车前景良好</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFavorable Outlook For GM<blockquote>通用汽车前景良好</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-10-08 11:10\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>GM has struggled with the transition to EVs and other technology-forward efforts.</li> <li>The Wall Street consensus is that GM will succeed sooner rather than later.</li> <li>The market-implied outlook (derived from options prices) has shifted to a substantially more positive near-term view.</li> <li>I see GM as having a favorable risk-return profile.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/139e056979d4a81394ff8a2299dd40df\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>通用汽车一直在努力向电动汽车和其他技术前沿的过渡。</li><li>华尔街的共识是通用汽车迟早会成功。</li><li>市场隐含的前景（来自期权价格）已经转向更加积极的近期观点。</li><li>我认为通用汽车具有良好的风险回报状况。</li></ul>JHVEPhoto/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote> General Motors(NYSE:GM)seems to be having a moment, with the share price rising 4.5% today, following an inspirational&nbsp;presentation to analysts. The company outlined its plan to be a leader in EVs and a vision for building a&nbsp;million self-driving cars by 2030. For GM, as with Ford(NYSE:F), the company recognizes that earnings growth and share valuation depend on aggressive technology-driven development. If GM can convince the market, and then demonstrate, that there is a real roadmap to higher-margin EVs and self-driving vehicles, the shares should demand a considerably higher price. After all, GM’s forward P/E is&nbsp;8.8, as compared to TSLA’s&nbsp;144.8.<blockquote>通用汽车(NYSE：GM)似乎迎来了一个时刻，在向分析师做了一次鼓舞人心的演讲后，今天股价上涨了4.5%。该公司概述了成为电动汽车领导者的计划以及到2030年生产100万辆自动驾驶汽车的愿景。对于通用汽车来说，与福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）一样，该公司认识到盈利增长和股票估值取决于积极的技术驱动发展。如果通用汽车能够说服市场，然后证明有一个真正的高利润电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车的路线图，那么该股的价格应该会高得多。毕竟，通用汽车的预期市盈率为8.8，而特斯拉的预期市盈率为144.8。</blockquote> Intriguingly, the Wall Street analysts have already priced an outlook for GM’s transformation. The Wall Street analyst&nbsp;consensus price target&nbsp;for GM has surged to $71.3, as compared to $46.6 in February of 2020, right before COVID hit and $51 at the end of 2020. At the current share price of $56.30, the Wall Street consensus (as calculated by&nbsp;Seeking Alpha) is for 12-month price appreciation of 26.7%.<blockquote>有趣的是，华尔街分析师已经对通用汽车转型的前景进行了定价。华尔街分析师对通用汽车的一致目标价已飙升至71.3美元，而2020年2月新冠疫情爆发前为46.6美元，2020年底为51美元。按目前56.30美元的股价计算，华尔街的共识（由Seeking Alpha计算）是12个月内股价上涨26.7%。</blockquote> When I&nbsp;last analyzed GM on March 7, 2021, seven months ago, the Wall Street consensus outlook was already bullish, with a 12-month price target that was about 20% above the share price at that time. Of the 19 analysts included in Seeking Alpha’s consensus outlook, 17 were bullish and 2 were neutral. I assigned GM a neutral rating at that time, largely because the outlook implied by options prices, in contrast to the Wall Street consensus, was bearish. The options market to early 2022 was indicating elevated probabilities of price declines. I compromised between the bullish Wall Street and the bearish options market view with a neutral rating. Since my post was published, GM has gained 4% (including the big rise today), as compared to 15.1% in price appreciation for the S&amp;P 500.<blockquote>当我上次在7个月前的2021年3月7日分析通用汽车时，华尔街的普遍前景已经看涨，12个月目标价比当时的股价高出约20%。在Seeking Alpha一致展望中的19名分析师中，17名分析师看涨，2名分析师中性。我当时给通用汽车的评级是中性的，主要是因为与华尔街的共识相反，期权价格所暗示的前景是看跌的。截至2022年初的期权市场表明价格下跌的可能性很高。我在看涨华尔街和看跌期权市场观点之间做出了妥协，给予了中性评级。自从我的文章发表以来，通用汽车已经上涨了4%（包括今天的大幅上涨），而标普500的价格上涨了15.1%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c074188d666f33a0849eb28c23242522\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Performance of GM vs. the S&amp;P 500 over the past 7 months (Source: Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>通用汽车与标普500过去7个月的表现（来源：Seeking Alpha）</blockquote> Using options prices to build a probabilistic price return outlook is conceptually straightforward. The price of an option represents the market’s consensus estimate for the probability that the price of the underlying stock (GM, in this case) will rise above (call option) or fall below (put option) a specific level (the strike price) between now and when the option expires. By analyzing calls and puts at a range of strike prices and a common expiration date, it is possible to calculate a probabilistic outlook for the underlying security that reconciles the options prices. This is referred to as the market-implied outlook. For readers seeking more information on this approach, I have written an&nbsp;overview post, including links to the relevant financial literature.<blockquote>使用期权价格来构建概率价格回报前景在概念上很简单。期权价格代表市场对标的股票（在本例中为通用汽车）价格高于（看涨期权期权）或低于（看跌期权）特定水平（执行价格）的概率的一致估计。）从现在到期权到期。通过分析一系列执行价格和共同到期日的评级和看跌期权，可以计算出与期权价格相一致的基础证券的概率前景。这被称为市场隐含前景。对于寻求更多关于这种方法的信息的读者，我写了一篇概述文章，包括相关金融文献的链接。</blockquote> It is clear today, as it was for my last analysis, that GM is relying on the ability to compete with EVs and autonomous vehicles. The analysts are valuing the company assuming that GM will successfully make this transition. Even if one agrees, the challenge is in the timing. Since March, GM has suffered an expensive and embarrassing setback with the&nbsp;massive recall&nbsp;of Chevy electric vehicles. Even if one buys into management’s vision, one imagines that some car buyers will be reluctant to buy a GM EV after seeing pictures of&nbsp;charred Chevy Bolts.<blockquote>今天很明显，正如我上次的分析一样，通用汽车依靠的是与电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车竞争的能力。分析师对该公司进行估值时假设通用汽车将成功实现这一转型。即使有人同意，挑战也在于时机。自3月份以来，通用汽车因大规模召回雪佛兰电动汽车而遭受了代价高昂且令人尴尬的挫折。即使人们相信管理层的愿景，人们也会想象一些购车者在看到烧焦的雪佛兰Bolt的照片后不愿意购买通用汽车电动汽车。</blockquote> GM is currently 11.9% below its 2021 high close of $63.92, set on June 8. With 7 months since my last analysis, and with the market and the analysts responding favorably to GM’s vision, I am revisiting my rating on GM.<blockquote>通用汽车目前较6月8日创下的2021年收盘价63.92美元低11.9%。距离我上次分析已经过去7个月了，随着市场和分析师对通用汽车的愿景反应良好，我正在重新审视我对通用汽车的评级。</blockquote> Wall Street Consensus Outlook for GM<blockquote>华尔街对通用汽车的共识前景</blockquote> ETrade’s calculation of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using the views of 13 ranked analysts who have issued ratings and price targets for GM within the past 90 days. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus 12-month price target is 27.5% above the current share price. There is a fairly high level of dispersion in the price targets, which&nbsp;reduces confidence&nbsp;in the consensus value. Of the 13 analysts, 12 give GM a buy rating and 1 assigns a neutral rating.<blockquote>ETrade对华尔街共识前景的计算是根据过去90天内发布通用汽车评级和价格目标的13位排名分析师的观点计算得出的。共识评级为看涨，共识12个月目标价比当前股价高出27.5%。价格目标存在相当高的离散度，这降低了对共识价值的信心。在13名分析师中，12名给予通用汽车买入评级，1名给予中性评级。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31b957237cbf2644c75e372831ed0714\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"838\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Wall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for GM (Source: ETrade)<blockquote>华尔街分析师对通用汽车的一致评级和12个月目标价（来源：ETrade）</blockquote> Seeking Alpha’s version of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using ratings and prices targets from 21 analysts. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus price target is 26.7% above the current share price. Only 1 analyst is neutral and the other 20 are bullish.<blockquote>Seeking Alpha版本的华尔街共识前景是使用21位分析师的评级和价格目标计算得出的。一致评级为看涨，一致目标价较当前股价高出26.7%。只有1名分析师持中性态度，其他20名分析师持看涨态度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbd40949c8ccc5a730e0aa07c04e15a8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"645\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Wall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for GM (Source: Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>华尔街分析师对通用汽车的一致评级和12个月目标价（来源：Seeking Alpha）</blockquote> The good news for GM shareholders is that the analysts are almost uniformly bullish on GM and the average 12-month price target is about 27% above the current level. There are somewhat cautionary considerations, however. First, the spread among the price targets is high, which means that there is not a lot of confidence in the outlook. Second, the timing of a share price recovery is hard to predict. The analysts were bullish back in March, as well.<blockquote>对于通用汽车股东来说，好消息是分析师几乎一致看好通用汽车，12个月平均目标价比当前水平高出约27%。然而，也有一些谨慎的考虑。首先，价格目标之间的利差很高，这意味着对前景没有太大信心。其次，股价回升的时机很难预测。分析师在三月份也持乐观态度。</blockquote> Market-Implied Outlook for GM<blockquote>通用汽车的市场隐含前景</blockquote> I have analyzed the prices of call and put options at a range of strike prices, all expiring on January 21, 2022 to generate the market-implied outlook for the next 3.5 months (from today until the expiration date). In my previous analysis, I also calculated a market-implied outlook using options with this expiration date. I have also generated the market-implied outlook to mid 2022, a period of 8.3 months, by analyzing options that expire on June 21, 2022.<blockquote>我分析了一系列执行价格的看涨期权和看跌期权的价格，这些期权都将于2022年1月21日到期，以生成未来3.5个月（从今天到到期日）的市场隐含前景。在我之前的分析中，我还使用具有此到期日的期权计算了市场隐含前景。我还通过分析2022年6月21日到期的期权，生成了2022年中期（8.3个月）的市场隐含前景。</blockquote> The standard presentation of the market-implied outlook is a probability distribution of price return, with probability on the vertical axis and return on the horizontal.<blockquote>市场隐含前景的标准表示是价格回报的概率分布，概率在纵轴，回报在横轴。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd025ceee857934bb5992eb6c234bd6d\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 3.5-month period from today until January 21, 2022 (Source: Author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)<blockquote>从今天到2022年1月21日的3.5个月期间通用汽车的市场隐含价格回报概率（来源：作者使用ETrade期权报价进行计算）</blockquote> The market-implied outlook for GM for the 3.5-month period between now and January 21, 2022 is generally symmetric, although the peak probability is slightly tilted towards negative returns, corresponding to a price return of -1.5%. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 35.7%, quite high for an individual stock.<blockquote>从现在到2022年1月21日的3.5个月期间，通用汽车的市场隐含前景总体上是对称的，尽管峰值概率略有向负回报倾斜，对应的价格回报为-1.5%。这种分布得出的年化波动率为35.7%，对于个股来说相当高。</blockquote> To make it easier to directly compare the probabilities of positive and negative returns, I rotate the negative return side of the distribution about the vertical axis (see chart below).<blockquote>为了更容易直接比较正回报和负回报的概率，我围绕垂直轴旋转分布的负回报侧（见下图）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc3728611fe98a00c0edfa693bae10b4\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 3.5-month period from today until January 21, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)<blockquote>通用汽车从今天到2022年1月21日3.5个月期间的市场隐含价格回报概率。分布的负回报侧已绕垂直轴旋转（来源：作者使用ETrade的期权报价进行计算）</blockquote> This view shows that the probabilities of positive and negative returns are almost identical for most outcomes (the solid blue line and the dashed red line are very close to one another). The exception is for small-magnitude price returns (+/- 5%).<blockquote>这种观点表明，对于大多数结果，正回报和负回报的概率几乎相同（蓝色实线和红色虚线彼此非常接近）。例外情况是小规模价格回报（+/-5%）。</blockquote> Theory predicts that the market-implied outlook will tend to be negatively biased because risk-averse investors pay more than fair value for put options to limit losses in long positions. In the financial literature, the market-implied outlook is often referred to as being risk-neutral. What this means is that the market-implied outlook would be unbiased if investors, in aggregate, were risk-neutral. Investors, collectively, are risk-averse - demanding to be paid a premium to take on risk (the equity risk premium). For this reason, a market-implied outlook with closely matching probabilities between positive and negative returns, as we see here, is actually a slightly bullish view.<blockquote>理论预测，市场隐含的前景将倾向于负面偏差，因为规避风险的投资者为看跌期权支付的价格高于公允价值，以限制多头头寸的损失。在金融文献中，市场隐含的前景通常被称为风险中性的。这意味着，如果投资者总体上风险中性，市场隐含的前景将是无偏见的。总的来说，投资者是规避风险的——要求获得承担风险的溢价（股票风险溢价）。因此，正如我们在这里看到的，正回报和负回报之间概率密切匹配的市场隐含前景实际上是一种稍微看涨的观点。</blockquote> The market-implied outlook to the middle of 2022 (8.3 months), calculated using the prices of call and put options that expire on June 17, 2022, exhibits more of a negative tilt. Qualitative consideration of the potential for a negative bias leads me to characterize this outlook as neutral, perhaps with a slight bearish tilt. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 36.5%.<blockquote>使用2022年6月17日到期的看涨期权和看跌期权价格计算的2022年中期（8.3个月）的市场隐含前景显示出更多的负面倾斜。对潜在负面偏见的定性考虑使我将这种前景描述为中性，也许有轻微的看跌倾向。由此分布得出的年化波动率为36.5%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7731002b4fcd2fbea3e50f32512c507\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 8.3-month period from today until June 17, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)<blockquote>通用汽车从今天到2022年6月17日的8.3个月期间的市场隐含价格回报概率。分布的负回报侧已绕垂直轴旋转（来源：作者使用ETrade的期权报价进行计算）</blockquote> Contrast the current market-implied outlooks for GM with the 10.6-month outlook to January 2022 from my&nbsp;previous analysis&nbsp;in March, which was substantially bearish. In this outlook, the probabilities of negative price returns were much higher relative to those for positive returns. The current market-implied outlook, slightly bullish to early 2022 and neutral to mid-2022, is much more favorable than the outlook from my earlier analysis.<blockquote>将通用汽车当前的市场隐含前景与我之前3月份分析中截至2022年1月的10.6个月前景进行对比，该分析非常悲观。在这种前景中，相对于正回报，负价格回报的概率要高得多。目前市场隐含的前景，2022年初略有看涨，2022年中期中性，比我之前分析的前景要有利得多。</blockquote> Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> GM is at an important transition point in its history. The company needs to rapidly and convincingly shift away from traditional internal combustion vehicles and towards EVs and autonomous vehicles. The Wall Street analysts, as a group, are confident that GM can make strides in this direction and the analyst consensus has gotten more bullish through 2021. The Wall Street consensus rating is bullish, with about 27% expected 12-month price appreciation.<blockquote>通用汽车正处于其历史上的一个重要转折点。该公司需要迅速、令人信服地从传统内燃机汽车转向电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车。华尔街分析师作为一个群体，相信通用汽车能够在这个方向上取得长足进步，并且分析师的共识在2021年变得更加乐观。华尔街一致评级为看涨，约27%的人预计12个月价格将上涨。</blockquote> The projected volatility for GM, calculated from the market-implied outlook, is about 36%. This is a fairly high level of volatility, but looks reasonable if we believe that the expected return is 27%. As a rule of thumb for a buy, I want to see expected return that is at or above ½ of the volatility.<blockquote>根据市场隐含前景计算，通用汽车的预计波动性约为36%。这是一个相当高的波动水平，但如果我们相信预期回报率为27%，那么看起来是合理的。作为买入的经验法则，我希望看到预期回报等于或高于波动率的1/2。</blockquote> Taking the analyst expected return at face value, GM easily surpasses this threshold. The market-implied outlook to early 2022 is slightly bullish, shifting to neutral by mid-2022. The market-implied outlook for GM has improved dramatically since March, when it was significantly bearish. I am changing my rating on GM from neutral to bullish.<blockquote>从分析师的预期回报率来看，通用汽车轻松超过了这一门槛。市场对2022年初的隐含前景略有看涨，到2022年中期将转向中性。自3月份以来，市场对通用汽车的隐含前景已显着改善，当时通用汽车的前景明显看跌。我将对通用汽车的评级从中性改为看涨。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458959-favorable-outlook-for-gm\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458959-favorable-outlook-for-gm","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128736762","content_text":"Summary\n\nGM has struggled with the transition to EVs and other technology-forward efforts.\nThe Wall Street consensus is that GM will succeed sooner rather than later.\nThe market-implied outlook (derived from options prices) has shifted to a substantially more positive near-term view.\nI see GM as having a favorable risk-return profile.\n\nJHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nGeneral Motors(NYSE:GM)seems to be having a moment, with the share price rising 4.5% today, following an inspirational presentation to analysts. The company outlined its plan to be a leader in EVs and a vision for building a million self-driving cars by 2030. For GM, as with Ford(NYSE:F), the company recognizes that earnings growth and share valuation depend on aggressive technology-driven development. If GM can convince the market, and then demonstrate, that there is a real roadmap to higher-margin EVs and self-driving vehicles, the shares should demand a considerably higher price. After all, GM’s forward P/E is 8.8, as compared to TSLA’s 144.8.\nIntriguingly, the Wall Street analysts have already priced an outlook for GM’s transformation. The Wall Street analyst consensus price target for GM has surged to $71.3, as compared to $46.6 in February of 2020, right before COVID hit and $51 at the end of 2020. At the current share price of $56.30, the Wall Street consensus (as calculated by Seeking Alpha) is for 12-month price appreciation of 26.7%.\nWhen I last analyzed GM on March 7, 2021, seven months ago, the Wall Street consensus outlook was already bullish, with a 12-month price target that was about 20% above the share price at that time. Of the 19 analysts included in Seeking Alpha’s consensus outlook, 17 were bullish and 2 were neutral. I assigned GM a neutral rating at that time, largely because the outlook implied by options prices, in contrast to the Wall Street consensus, was bearish. The options market to early 2022 was indicating elevated probabilities of price declines. I compromised between the bullish Wall Street and the bearish options market view with a neutral rating. Since my post was published, GM has gained 4% (including the big rise today), as compared to 15.1% in price appreciation for the S&P 500.\nPerformance of GM vs. the S&P 500 over the past 7 months (Source: Seeking Alpha)\nUsing options prices to build a probabilistic price return outlook is conceptually straightforward. The price of an option represents the market’s consensus estimate for the probability that the price of the underlying stock (GM, in this case) will rise above (call option) or fall below (put option) a specific level (the strike price) between now and when the option expires. By analyzing calls and puts at a range of strike prices and a common expiration date, it is possible to calculate a probabilistic outlook for the underlying security that reconciles the options prices. This is referred to as the market-implied outlook. For readers seeking more information on this approach, I have written an overview post, including links to the relevant financial literature.\nIt is clear today, as it was for my last analysis, that GM is relying on the ability to compete with EVs and autonomous vehicles. The analysts are valuing the company assuming that GM will successfully make this transition. Even if one agrees, the challenge is in the timing. Since March, GM has suffered an expensive and embarrassing setback with the massive recall of Chevy electric vehicles. Even if one buys into management’s vision, one imagines that some car buyers will be reluctant to buy a GM EV after seeing pictures of charred Chevy Bolts.\nGM is currently 11.9% below its 2021 high close of $63.92, set on June 8. With 7 months since my last analysis, and with the market and the analysts responding favorably to GM’s vision, I am revisiting my rating on GM.\nWall Street Consensus Outlook for GM\nETrade’s calculation of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using the views of 13 ranked analysts who have issued ratings and price targets for GM within the past 90 days. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus 12-month price target is 27.5% above the current share price. There is a fairly high level of dispersion in the price targets, which reduces confidence in the consensus value. Of the 13 analysts, 12 give GM a buy rating and 1 assigns a neutral rating.\nWall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for GM (Source: ETrade)\nSeeking Alpha’s version of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using ratings and prices targets from 21 analysts. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus price target is 26.7% above the current share price. Only 1 analyst is neutral and the other 20 are bullish.\nWall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for GM (Source: Seeking Alpha)\nThe good news for GM shareholders is that the analysts are almost uniformly bullish on GM and the average 12-month price target is about 27% above the current level. There are somewhat cautionary considerations, however. First, the spread among the price targets is high, which means that there is not a lot of confidence in the outlook. Second, the timing of a share price recovery is hard to predict. The analysts were bullish back in March, as well.\nMarket-Implied Outlook for GM\nI have analyzed the prices of call and put options at a range of strike prices, all expiring on January 21, 2022 to generate the market-implied outlook for the next 3.5 months (from today until the expiration date). In my previous analysis, I also calculated a market-implied outlook using options with this expiration date. I have also generated the market-implied outlook to mid 2022, a period of 8.3 months, by analyzing options that expire on June 21, 2022.\nThe standard presentation of the market-implied outlook is a probability distribution of price return, with probability on the vertical axis and return on the horizontal.\nMarket-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 3.5-month period from today until January 21, 2022 (Source: Author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)\nThe market-implied outlook for GM for the 3.5-month period between now and January 21, 2022 is generally symmetric, although the peak probability is slightly tilted towards negative returns, corresponding to a price return of -1.5%. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 35.7%, quite high for an individual stock.\nTo make it easier to directly compare the probabilities of positive and negative returns, I rotate the negative return side of the distribution about the vertical axis (see chart below).\nMarket-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 3.5-month period from today until January 21, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)\nThis view shows that the probabilities of positive and negative returns are almost identical for most outcomes (the solid blue line and the dashed red line are very close to one another). The exception is for small-magnitude price returns (+/- 5%).\nTheory predicts that the market-implied outlook will tend to be negatively biased because risk-averse investors pay more than fair value for put options to limit losses in long positions. In the financial literature, the market-implied outlook is often referred to as being risk-neutral. What this means is that the market-implied outlook would be unbiased if investors, in aggregate, were risk-neutral. Investors, collectively, are risk-averse - demanding to be paid a premium to take on risk (the equity risk premium). For this reason, a market-implied outlook with closely matching probabilities between positive and negative returns, as we see here, is actually a slightly bullish view.\nThe market-implied outlook to the middle of 2022 (8.3 months), calculated using the prices of call and put options that expire on June 17, 2022, exhibits more of a negative tilt. Qualitative consideration of the potential for a negative bias leads me to characterize this outlook as neutral, perhaps with a slight bearish tilt. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 36.5%.\nMarket-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 8.3-month period from today until June 17, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)\nContrast the current market-implied outlooks for GM with the 10.6-month outlook to January 2022 from my previous analysis in March, which was substantially bearish. In this outlook, the probabilities of negative price returns were much higher relative to those for positive returns. The current market-implied outlook, slightly bullish to early 2022 and neutral to mid-2022, is much more favorable than the outlook from my earlier analysis.\nSummary\nGM is at an important transition point in its history. The company needs to rapidly and convincingly shift away from traditional internal combustion vehicles and towards EVs and autonomous vehicles. The Wall Street analysts, as a group, are confident that GM can make strides in this direction and the analyst consensus has gotten more bullish through 2021. The Wall Street consensus rating is bullish, with about 27% expected 12-month price appreciation.\nThe projected volatility for GM, calculated from the market-implied outlook, is about 36%. This is a fairly high level of volatility, but looks reasonable if we believe that the expected return is 27%. As a rule of thumb for a buy, I want to see expected return that is at or above ½ of the volatility.\nTaking the analyst expected return at face value, GM easily surpasses this threshold. The market-implied outlook to early 2022 is slightly bullish, shifting to neutral by mid-2022. The market-implied outlook for GM has improved dramatically since March, when it was significantly bearish. I am changing my rating on GM from neutral to bullish.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":823728900,"gmtCreate":1633664139145,"gmtModify":1633664139584,"author":{"id":"3576907825888639","authorId":"3576907825888639","name":"JerryChiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537811c4027e5f1664a45ab303892cb1","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3576907825888639","idStr":"3576907825888639"},"htmlText":"GM need to pick up on the EV segment&nbsp;","listText":"GM need to pick up on the EV segment&nbsp;","text":"GM need to pick up on the EV segment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/823728900","repostId":1128736762,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128736762","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633662653,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1128736762?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 11:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Favorable Outlook For GM<blockquote>通用汽车前景良好</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128736762","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nGM has struggled with the transition to EVs and other technology-forward efforts.\nThe Wall ","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>GM has struggled with the transition to EVs and other technology-forward efforts.</li> <li>The Wall Street consensus is that GM will succeed sooner rather than later.</li> <li>The market-implied outlook (derived from options prices) has shifted to a substantially more positive near-term view.</li> <li>I see GM as having a favorable risk-return profile.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/139e056979d4a81394ff8a2299dd40df\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>通用汽车一直在努力向电动汽车和其他技术前沿的过渡。</li><li>华尔街的共识是通用汽车迟早会成功。</li><li>市场隐含的前景（来自期权价格）已经转向更加积极的近期观点。</li><li>我认为通用汽车具有良好的风险回报状况。</li></ul>JHVEPhoto/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote> General Motors(NYSE:GM)seems to be having a moment, with the share price rising 4.5% today, following an inspirational&nbsp;presentation to analysts. The company outlined its plan to be a leader in EVs and a vision for building a&nbsp;million self-driving cars by 2030. For GM, as with Ford(NYSE:F), the company recognizes that earnings growth and share valuation depend on aggressive technology-driven development. If GM can convince the market, and then demonstrate, that there is a real roadmap to higher-margin EVs and self-driving vehicles, the shares should demand a considerably higher price. After all, GM’s forward P/E is&nbsp;8.8, as compared to TSLA’s&nbsp;144.8.<blockquote>通用汽车(NYSE：GM)似乎迎来了一个时刻，在向分析师做了一次鼓舞人心的演讲后，今天股价上涨了4.5%。该公司概述了成为电动汽车领导者的计划以及到2030年生产100万辆自动驾驶汽车的愿景。对于通用汽车来说，与福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）一样，该公司认识到盈利增长和股票估值取决于积极的技术驱动发展。如果通用汽车能够说服市场，然后证明有一个真正的高利润电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车的路线图，那么该股的价格应该会高得多。毕竟，通用汽车的预期市盈率为8.8，而特斯拉的预期市盈率为144.8。</blockquote> Intriguingly, the Wall Street analysts have already priced an outlook for GM’s transformation. The Wall Street analyst&nbsp;consensus price target&nbsp;for GM has surged to $71.3, as compared to $46.6 in February of 2020, right before COVID hit and $51 at the end of 2020. At the current share price of $56.30, the Wall Street consensus (as calculated by&nbsp;Seeking Alpha) is for 12-month price appreciation of 26.7%.<blockquote>有趣的是，华尔街分析师已经对通用汽车转型的前景进行了定价。华尔街分析师对通用汽车的一致目标价已飙升至71.3美元，而2020年2月新冠疫情爆发前为46.6美元，2020年底为51美元。按目前56.30美元的股价计算，华尔街的共识（由Seeking Alpha计算）是12个月内股价上涨26.7%。</blockquote> When I&nbsp;last analyzed GM on March 7, 2021, seven months ago, the Wall Street consensus outlook was already bullish, with a 12-month price target that was about 20% above the share price at that time. Of the 19 analysts included in Seeking Alpha’s consensus outlook, 17 were bullish and 2 were neutral. I assigned GM a neutral rating at that time, largely because the outlook implied by options prices, in contrast to the Wall Street consensus, was bearish. The options market to early 2022 was indicating elevated probabilities of price declines. I compromised between the bullish Wall Street and the bearish options market view with a neutral rating. Since my post was published, GM has gained 4% (including the big rise today), as compared to 15.1% in price appreciation for the S&amp;P 500.<blockquote>当我上次在7个月前的2021年3月7日分析通用汽车时，华尔街的普遍前景已经看涨，12个月目标价比当时的股价高出约20%。在Seeking Alpha一致展望中的19名分析师中，17名分析师看涨，2名分析师中性。我当时给通用汽车的评级是中性的，主要是因为与华尔街的共识相反，期权价格所暗示的前景是看跌的。截至2022年初的期权市场表明价格下跌的可能性很高。我在看涨华尔街和看跌期权市场观点之间做出了妥协，给予了中性评级。自从我的文章发表以来，通用汽车已经上涨了4%（包括今天的大幅上涨），而标普500的价格上涨了15.1%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c074188d666f33a0849eb28c23242522\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Performance of GM vs. the S&amp;P 500 over the past 7 months (Source: Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>通用汽车与标普500过去7个月的表现（来源：Seeking Alpha）</blockquote> Using options prices to build a probabilistic price return outlook is conceptually straightforward. The price of an option represents the market’s consensus estimate for the probability that the price of the underlying stock (GM, in this case) will rise above (call option) or fall below (put option) a specific level (the strike price) between now and when the option expires. By analyzing calls and puts at a range of strike prices and a common expiration date, it is possible to calculate a probabilistic outlook for the underlying security that reconciles the options prices. This is referred to as the market-implied outlook. For readers seeking more information on this approach, I have written an&nbsp;overview post, including links to the relevant financial literature.<blockquote>使用期权价格来构建概率价格回报前景在概念上很简单。期权价格代表市场对标的股票（在本例中为通用汽车）价格高于（看涨期权期权）或低于（看跌期权）特定水平（执行价格）的概率的一致估计。）从现在到期权到期。通过分析一系列执行价格和共同到期日的评级和看跌期权，可以计算出与期权价格相一致的基础证券的概率前景。这被称为市场隐含前景。对于寻求更多关于这种方法的信息的读者，我写了一篇概述文章，包括相关金融文献的链接。</blockquote> It is clear today, as it was for my last analysis, that GM is relying on the ability to compete with EVs and autonomous vehicles. The analysts are valuing the company assuming that GM will successfully make this transition. Even if one agrees, the challenge is in the timing. Since March, GM has suffered an expensive and embarrassing setback with the&nbsp;massive recall&nbsp;of Chevy electric vehicles. Even if one buys into management’s vision, one imagines that some car buyers will be reluctant to buy a GM EV after seeing pictures of&nbsp;charred Chevy Bolts.<blockquote>今天很明显，正如我上次的分析一样，通用汽车依靠的是与电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车竞争的能力。分析师对该公司进行估值时假设通用汽车将成功实现这一转型。即使有人同意，挑战也在于时机。自3月份以来，通用汽车因大规模召回雪佛兰电动汽车而遭受了代价高昂且令人尴尬的挫折。即使人们相信管理层的愿景，人们也会想象一些购车者在看到烧焦的雪佛兰Bolt的照片后不愿意购买通用汽车电动汽车。</blockquote> GM is currently 11.9% below its 2021 high close of $63.92, set on June 8. With 7 months since my last analysis, and with the market and the analysts responding favorably to GM’s vision, I am revisiting my rating on GM.<blockquote>通用汽车目前较6月8日创下的2021年收盘价63.92美元低11.9%。距离我上次分析已经过去7个月了，随着市场和分析师对通用汽车的愿景反应良好，我正在重新审视我对通用汽车的评级。</blockquote> Wall Street Consensus Outlook for GM<blockquote>华尔街对通用汽车的共识前景</blockquote> ETrade’s calculation of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using the views of 13 ranked analysts who have issued ratings and price targets for GM within the past 90 days. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus 12-month price target is 27.5% above the current share price. There is a fairly high level of dispersion in the price targets, which&nbsp;reduces confidence&nbsp;in the consensus value. Of the 13 analysts, 12 give GM a buy rating and 1 assigns a neutral rating.<blockquote>ETrade对华尔街共识前景的计算是根据过去90天内发布通用汽车评级和价格目标的13位排名分析师的观点计算得出的。共识评级为看涨，共识12个月目标价比当前股价高出27.5%。价格目标存在相当高的离散度，这降低了对共识价值的信心。在13名分析师中，12名给予通用汽车买入评级，1名给予中性评级。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31b957237cbf2644c75e372831ed0714\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"838\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Wall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for GM (Source: ETrade)<blockquote>华尔街分析师对通用汽车的一致评级和12个月目标价（来源：ETrade）</blockquote> Seeking Alpha’s version of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using ratings and prices targets from 21 analysts. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus price target is 26.7% above the current share price. Only 1 analyst is neutral and the other 20 are bullish.<blockquote>Seeking Alpha版本的华尔街共识前景是使用21位分析师的评级和价格目标计算得出的。一致评级为看涨，一致目标价较当前股价高出26.7%。只有1名分析师持中性态度，其他20名分析师持看涨态度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbd40949c8ccc5a730e0aa07c04e15a8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"645\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Wall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for GM (Source: Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>华尔街分析师对通用汽车的一致评级和12个月目标价（来源：Seeking Alpha）</blockquote> The good news for GM shareholders is that the analysts are almost uniformly bullish on GM and the average 12-month price target is about 27% above the current level. There are somewhat cautionary considerations, however. First, the spread among the price targets is high, which means that there is not a lot of confidence in the outlook. Second, the timing of a share price recovery is hard to predict. The analysts were bullish back in March, as well.<blockquote>对于通用汽车股东来说，好消息是分析师几乎一致看好通用汽车，12个月平均目标价比当前水平高出约27%。然而，也有一些谨慎的考虑。首先，价格目标之间的利差很高，这意味着对前景没有太大信心。其次，股价回升的时机很难预测。分析师在三月份也持乐观态度。</blockquote> Market-Implied Outlook for GM<blockquote>通用汽车的市场隐含前景</blockquote> I have analyzed the prices of call and put options at a range of strike prices, all expiring on January 21, 2022 to generate the market-implied outlook for the next 3.5 months (from today until the expiration date). In my previous analysis, I also calculated a market-implied outlook using options with this expiration date. I have also generated the market-implied outlook to mid 2022, a period of 8.3 months, by analyzing options that expire on June 21, 2022.<blockquote>我分析了一系列执行价格的看涨期权和看跌期权的价格，这些期权都将于2022年1月21日到期，以生成未来3.5个月（从今天到到期日）的市场隐含前景。在我之前的分析中，我还使用具有此到期日的期权计算了市场隐含前景。我还通过分析2022年6月21日到期的期权，生成了2022年中期（8.3个月）的市场隐含前景。</blockquote> The standard presentation of the market-implied outlook is a probability distribution of price return, with probability on the vertical axis and return on the horizontal.<blockquote>市场隐含前景的标准表示是价格回报的概率分布，概率在纵轴，回报在横轴。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd025ceee857934bb5992eb6c234bd6d\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 3.5-month period from today until January 21, 2022 (Source: Author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)<blockquote>从今天到2022年1月21日的3.5个月期间通用汽车的市场隐含价格回报概率（来源：作者使用ETrade期权报价进行计算）</blockquote> The market-implied outlook for GM for the 3.5-month period between now and January 21, 2022 is generally symmetric, although the peak probability is slightly tilted towards negative returns, corresponding to a price return of -1.5%. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 35.7%, quite high for an individual stock.<blockquote>从现在到2022年1月21日的3.5个月期间，通用汽车的市场隐含前景总体上是对称的，尽管峰值概率略有向负回报倾斜，对应的价格回报为-1.5%。这种分布得出的年化波动率为35.7%，对于个股来说相当高。</blockquote> To make it easier to directly compare the probabilities of positive and negative returns, I rotate the negative return side of the distribution about the vertical axis (see chart below).<blockquote>为了更容易直接比较正回报和负回报的概率，我围绕垂直轴旋转分布的负回报侧（见下图）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc3728611fe98a00c0edfa693bae10b4\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 3.5-month period from today until January 21, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)<blockquote>通用汽车从今天到2022年1月21日3.5个月期间的市场隐含价格回报概率。分布的负回报侧已绕垂直轴旋转（来源：作者使用ETrade的期权报价进行计算）</blockquote> This view shows that the probabilities of positive and negative returns are almost identical for most outcomes (the solid blue line and the dashed red line are very close to one another). The exception is for small-magnitude price returns (+/- 5%).<blockquote>这种观点表明，对于大多数结果，正回报和负回报的概率几乎相同（蓝色实线和红色虚线彼此非常接近）。例外情况是小规模价格回报（+/-5%）。</blockquote> Theory predicts that the market-implied outlook will tend to be negatively biased because risk-averse investors pay more than fair value for put options to limit losses in long positions. In the financial literature, the market-implied outlook is often referred to as being risk-neutral. What this means is that the market-implied outlook would be unbiased if investors, in aggregate, were risk-neutral. Investors, collectively, are risk-averse - demanding to be paid a premium to take on risk (the equity risk premium). For this reason, a market-implied outlook with closely matching probabilities between positive and negative returns, as we see here, is actually a slightly bullish view.<blockquote>理论预测，市场隐含的前景将倾向于负面偏差，因为规避风险的投资者为看跌期权支付的价格高于公允价值，以限制多头头寸的损失。在金融文献中，市场隐含的前景通常被称为风险中性的。这意味着，如果投资者总体上风险中性，市场隐含的前景将是无偏见的。总的来说，投资者是规避风险的——要求获得承担风险的溢价（股票风险溢价）。因此，正如我们在这里看到的，正回报和负回报之间概率密切匹配的市场隐含前景实际上是一种稍微看涨的观点。</blockquote> The market-implied outlook to the middle of 2022 (8.3 months), calculated using the prices of call and put options that expire on June 17, 2022, exhibits more of a negative tilt. Qualitative consideration of the potential for a negative bias leads me to characterize this outlook as neutral, perhaps with a slight bearish tilt. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 36.5%.<blockquote>使用2022年6月17日到期的看涨期权和看跌期权价格计算的2022年中期（8.3个月）的市场隐含前景显示出更多的负面倾斜。对潜在负面偏见的定性考虑使我将这种前景描述为中性，也许有轻微的看跌倾向。由此分布得出的年化波动率为36.5%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7731002b4fcd2fbea3e50f32512c507\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 8.3-month period from today until June 17, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)<blockquote>通用汽车从今天到2022年6月17日的8.3个月期间的市场隐含价格回报概率。分布的负回报侧已绕垂直轴旋转（来源：作者使用ETrade的期权报价进行计算）</blockquote> Contrast the current market-implied outlooks for GM with the 10.6-month outlook to January 2022 from my&nbsp;previous analysis&nbsp;in March, which was substantially bearish. In this outlook, the probabilities of negative price returns were much higher relative to those for positive returns. The current market-implied outlook, slightly bullish to early 2022 and neutral to mid-2022, is much more favorable than the outlook from my earlier analysis.<blockquote>将通用汽车当前的市场隐含前景与我之前3月份分析中截至2022年1月的10.6个月前景进行对比，该分析非常悲观。在这种前景中，相对于正回报，负价格回报的概率要高得多。目前市场隐含的前景，2022年初略有看涨，2022年中期中性，比我之前分析的前景要有利得多。</blockquote> Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> GM is at an important transition point in its history. The company needs to rapidly and convincingly shift away from traditional internal combustion vehicles and towards EVs and autonomous vehicles. The Wall Street analysts, as a group, are confident that GM can make strides in this direction and the analyst consensus has gotten more bullish through 2021. The Wall Street consensus rating is bullish, with about 27% expected 12-month price appreciation.<blockquote>通用汽车正处于其历史上的一个重要转折点。该公司需要迅速、令人信服地从传统内燃机汽车转向电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车。华尔街分析师作为一个群体，相信通用汽车能够在这个方向上取得长足进步，并且分析师的共识在2021年变得更加乐观。华尔街一致评级为看涨，约27%的人预计12个月价格将上涨。</blockquote> The projected volatility for GM, calculated from the market-implied outlook, is about 36%. This is a fairly high level of volatility, but looks reasonable if we believe that the expected return is 27%. As a rule of thumb for a buy, I want to see expected return that is at or above ½ of the volatility.<blockquote>根据市场隐含前景计算，通用汽车的预计波动性约为36%。这是一个相当高的波动水平，但如果我们相信预期回报率为27%，那么看起来是合理的。作为买入的经验法则，我希望看到预期回报等于或高于波动率的1/2。</blockquote> Taking the analyst expected return at face value, GM easily surpasses this threshold. The market-implied outlook to early 2022 is slightly bullish, shifting to neutral by mid-2022. The market-implied outlook for GM has improved dramatically since March, when it was significantly bearish. I am changing my rating on GM from neutral to bullish.<blockquote>从分析师的预期回报率来看，通用汽车轻松超过了这一门槛。市场对2022年初的隐含前景略有看涨，到2022年中期将转向中性。自3月份以来，市场对通用汽车的隐含前景已显着改善，当时通用汽车的前景明显看跌。我将对通用汽车的评级从中性改为看涨。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Favorable Outlook For GM<blockquote>通用汽车前景良好</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFavorable Outlook For GM<blockquote>通用汽车前景良好</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-10-08 11:10\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>GM has struggled with the transition to EVs and other technology-forward efforts.</li> <li>The Wall Street consensus is that GM will succeed sooner rather than later.</li> <li>The market-implied outlook (derived from options prices) has shifted to a substantially more positive near-term view.</li> <li>I see GM as having a favorable risk-return profile.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/139e056979d4a81394ff8a2299dd40df\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>通用汽车一直在努力向电动汽车和其他技术前沿的过渡。</li><li>华尔街的共识是通用汽车迟早会成功。</li><li>市场隐含的前景（来自期权价格）已经转向更加积极的近期观点。</li><li>我认为通用汽车具有良好的风险回报状况。</li></ul>JHVEPhoto/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote> General Motors(NYSE:GM)seems to be having a moment, with the share price rising 4.5% today, following an inspirational&nbsp;presentation to analysts. The company outlined its plan to be a leader in EVs and a vision for building a&nbsp;million self-driving cars by 2030. For GM, as with Ford(NYSE:F), the company recognizes that earnings growth and share valuation depend on aggressive technology-driven development. If GM can convince the market, and then demonstrate, that there is a real roadmap to higher-margin EVs and self-driving vehicles, the shares should demand a considerably higher price. After all, GM’s forward P/E is&nbsp;8.8, as compared to TSLA’s&nbsp;144.8.<blockquote>通用汽车(NYSE：GM)似乎迎来了一个时刻，在向分析师做了一次鼓舞人心的演讲后，今天股价上涨了4.5%。该公司概述了成为电动汽车领导者的计划以及到2030年生产100万辆自动驾驶汽车的愿景。对于通用汽车来说，与福特（纽约证券交易所股票代码：F）一样，该公司认识到盈利增长和股票估值取决于积极的技术驱动发展。如果通用汽车能够说服市场，然后证明有一个真正的高利润电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车的路线图，那么该股的价格应该会高得多。毕竟，通用汽车的预期市盈率为8.8，而特斯拉的预期市盈率为144.8。</blockquote> Intriguingly, the Wall Street analysts have already priced an outlook for GM’s transformation. The Wall Street analyst&nbsp;consensus price target&nbsp;for GM has surged to $71.3, as compared to $46.6 in February of 2020, right before COVID hit and $51 at the end of 2020. At the current share price of $56.30, the Wall Street consensus (as calculated by&nbsp;Seeking Alpha) is for 12-month price appreciation of 26.7%.<blockquote>有趣的是，华尔街分析师已经对通用汽车转型的前景进行了定价。华尔街分析师对通用汽车的一致目标价已飙升至71.3美元，而2020年2月新冠疫情爆发前为46.6美元，2020年底为51美元。按目前56.30美元的股价计算，华尔街的共识（由Seeking Alpha计算）是12个月内股价上涨26.7%。</blockquote> When I&nbsp;last analyzed GM on March 7, 2021, seven months ago, the Wall Street consensus outlook was already bullish, with a 12-month price target that was about 20% above the share price at that time. Of the 19 analysts included in Seeking Alpha’s consensus outlook, 17 were bullish and 2 were neutral. I assigned GM a neutral rating at that time, largely because the outlook implied by options prices, in contrast to the Wall Street consensus, was bearish. The options market to early 2022 was indicating elevated probabilities of price declines. I compromised between the bullish Wall Street and the bearish options market view with a neutral rating. Since my post was published, GM has gained 4% (including the big rise today), as compared to 15.1% in price appreciation for the S&amp;P 500.<blockquote>当我上次在7个月前的2021年3月7日分析通用汽车时，华尔街的普遍前景已经看涨，12个月目标价比当时的股价高出约20%。在Seeking Alpha一致展望中的19名分析师中，17名分析师看涨，2名分析师中性。我当时给通用汽车的评级是中性的，主要是因为与华尔街的共识相反，期权价格所暗示的前景是看跌的。截至2022年初的期权市场表明价格下跌的可能性很高。我在看涨华尔街和看跌期权市场观点之间做出了妥协，给予了中性评级。自从我的文章发表以来，通用汽车已经上涨了4%（包括今天的大幅上涨），而标普500的价格上涨了15.1%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c074188d666f33a0849eb28c23242522\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Performance of GM vs. the S&amp;P 500 over the past 7 months (Source: Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>通用汽车与标普500过去7个月的表现（来源：Seeking Alpha）</blockquote> Using options prices to build a probabilistic price return outlook is conceptually straightforward. The price of an option represents the market’s consensus estimate for the probability that the price of the underlying stock (GM, in this case) will rise above (call option) or fall below (put option) a specific level (the strike price) between now and when the option expires. By analyzing calls and puts at a range of strike prices and a common expiration date, it is possible to calculate a probabilistic outlook for the underlying security that reconciles the options prices. This is referred to as the market-implied outlook. For readers seeking more information on this approach, I have written an&nbsp;overview post, including links to the relevant financial literature.<blockquote>使用期权价格来构建概率价格回报前景在概念上很简单。期权价格代表市场对标的股票（在本例中为通用汽车）价格高于（看涨期权期权）或低于（看跌期权）特定水平（执行价格）的概率的一致估计。）从现在到期权到期。通过分析一系列执行价格和共同到期日的评级和看跌期权，可以计算出与期权价格相一致的基础证券的概率前景。这被称为市场隐含前景。对于寻求更多关于这种方法的信息的读者，我写了一篇概述文章，包括相关金融文献的链接。</blockquote> It is clear today, as it was for my last analysis, that GM is relying on the ability to compete with EVs and autonomous vehicles. The analysts are valuing the company assuming that GM will successfully make this transition. Even if one agrees, the challenge is in the timing. Since March, GM has suffered an expensive and embarrassing setback with the&nbsp;massive recall&nbsp;of Chevy electric vehicles. Even if one buys into management’s vision, one imagines that some car buyers will be reluctant to buy a GM EV after seeing pictures of&nbsp;charred Chevy Bolts.<blockquote>今天很明显，正如我上次的分析一样，通用汽车依靠的是与电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车竞争的能力。分析师对该公司进行估值时假设通用汽车将成功实现这一转型。即使有人同意，挑战也在于时机。自3月份以来，通用汽车因大规模召回雪佛兰电动汽车而遭受了代价高昂且令人尴尬的挫折。即使人们相信管理层的愿景，人们也会想象一些购车者在看到烧焦的雪佛兰Bolt的照片后不愿意购买通用汽车电动汽车。</blockquote> GM is currently 11.9% below its 2021 high close of $63.92, set on June 8. With 7 months since my last analysis, and with the market and the analysts responding favorably to GM’s vision, I am revisiting my rating on GM.<blockquote>通用汽车目前较6月8日创下的2021年收盘价63.92美元低11.9%。距离我上次分析已经过去7个月了，随着市场和分析师对通用汽车的愿景反应良好，我正在重新审视我对通用汽车的评级。</blockquote> Wall Street Consensus Outlook for GM<blockquote>华尔街对通用汽车的共识前景</blockquote> ETrade’s calculation of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using the views of 13 ranked analysts who have issued ratings and price targets for GM within the past 90 days. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus 12-month price target is 27.5% above the current share price. There is a fairly high level of dispersion in the price targets, which&nbsp;reduces confidence&nbsp;in the consensus value. Of the 13 analysts, 12 give GM a buy rating and 1 assigns a neutral rating.<blockquote>ETrade对华尔街共识前景的计算是根据过去90天内发布通用汽车评级和价格目标的13位排名分析师的观点计算得出的。共识评级为看涨，共识12个月目标价比当前股价高出27.5%。价格目标存在相当高的离散度，这降低了对共识价值的信心。在13名分析师中，12名给予通用汽车买入评级，1名给予中性评级。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31b957237cbf2644c75e372831ed0714\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"838\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Wall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for GM (Source: ETrade)<blockquote>华尔街分析师对通用汽车的一致评级和12个月目标价（来源：ETrade）</blockquote> Seeking Alpha’s version of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using ratings and prices targets from 21 analysts. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus price target is 26.7% above the current share price. Only 1 analyst is neutral and the other 20 are bullish.<blockquote>Seeking Alpha版本的华尔街共识前景是使用21位分析师的评级和价格目标计算得出的。一致评级为看涨，一致目标价较当前股价高出26.7%。只有1名分析师持中性态度，其他20名分析师持看涨态度。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbd40949c8ccc5a730e0aa07c04e15a8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"645\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Wall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for GM (Source: Seeking Alpha)<blockquote>华尔街分析师对通用汽车的一致评级和12个月目标价（来源：Seeking Alpha）</blockquote> The good news for GM shareholders is that the analysts are almost uniformly bullish on GM and the average 12-month price target is about 27% above the current level. There are somewhat cautionary considerations, however. First, the spread among the price targets is high, which means that there is not a lot of confidence in the outlook. Second, the timing of a share price recovery is hard to predict. The analysts were bullish back in March, as well.<blockquote>对于通用汽车股东来说，好消息是分析师几乎一致看好通用汽车，12个月平均目标价比当前水平高出约27%。然而，也有一些谨慎的考虑。首先，价格目标之间的利差很高，这意味着对前景没有太大信心。其次，股价回升的时机很难预测。分析师在三月份也持乐观态度。</blockquote> Market-Implied Outlook for GM<blockquote>通用汽车的市场隐含前景</blockquote> I have analyzed the prices of call and put options at a range of strike prices, all expiring on January 21, 2022 to generate the market-implied outlook for the next 3.5 months (from today until the expiration date). In my previous analysis, I also calculated a market-implied outlook using options with this expiration date. I have also generated the market-implied outlook to mid 2022, a period of 8.3 months, by analyzing options that expire on June 21, 2022.<blockquote>我分析了一系列执行价格的看涨期权和看跌期权的价格，这些期权都将于2022年1月21日到期，以生成未来3.5个月（从今天到到期日）的市场隐含前景。在我之前的分析中，我还使用具有此到期日的期权计算了市场隐含前景。我还通过分析2022年6月21日到期的期权，生成了2022年中期（8.3个月）的市场隐含前景。</blockquote> The standard presentation of the market-implied outlook is a probability distribution of price return, with probability on the vertical axis and return on the horizontal.<blockquote>市场隐含前景的标准表示是价格回报的概率分布，概率在纵轴，回报在横轴。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd025ceee857934bb5992eb6c234bd6d\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 3.5-month period from today until January 21, 2022 (Source: Author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)<blockquote>从今天到2022年1月21日的3.5个月期间通用汽车的市场隐含价格回报概率（来源：作者使用ETrade期权报价进行计算）</blockquote> The market-implied outlook for GM for the 3.5-month period between now and January 21, 2022 is generally symmetric, although the peak probability is slightly tilted towards negative returns, corresponding to a price return of -1.5%. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 35.7%, quite high for an individual stock.<blockquote>从现在到2022年1月21日的3.5个月期间，通用汽车的市场隐含前景总体上是对称的，尽管峰值概率略有向负回报倾斜，对应的价格回报为-1.5%。这种分布得出的年化波动率为35.7%，对于个股来说相当高。</blockquote> To make it easier to directly compare the probabilities of positive and negative returns, I rotate the negative return side of the distribution about the vertical axis (see chart below).<blockquote>为了更容易直接比较正回报和负回报的概率，我围绕垂直轴旋转分布的负回报侧（见下图）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc3728611fe98a00c0edfa693bae10b4\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 3.5-month period from today until January 21, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)<blockquote>通用汽车从今天到2022年1月21日3.5个月期间的市场隐含价格回报概率。分布的负回报侧已绕垂直轴旋转（来源：作者使用ETrade的期权报价进行计算）</blockquote> This view shows that the probabilities of positive and negative returns are almost identical for most outcomes (the solid blue line and the dashed red line are very close to one another). The exception is for small-magnitude price returns (+/- 5%).<blockquote>这种观点表明，对于大多数结果，正回报和负回报的概率几乎相同（蓝色实线和红色虚线彼此非常接近）。例外情况是小规模价格回报（+/-5%）。</blockquote> Theory predicts that the market-implied outlook will tend to be negatively biased because risk-averse investors pay more than fair value for put options to limit losses in long positions. In the financial literature, the market-implied outlook is often referred to as being risk-neutral. What this means is that the market-implied outlook would be unbiased if investors, in aggregate, were risk-neutral. Investors, collectively, are risk-averse - demanding to be paid a premium to take on risk (the equity risk premium). For this reason, a market-implied outlook with closely matching probabilities between positive and negative returns, as we see here, is actually a slightly bullish view.<blockquote>理论预测，市场隐含的前景将倾向于负面偏差，因为规避风险的投资者为看跌期权支付的价格高于公允价值，以限制多头头寸的损失。在金融文献中，市场隐含的前景通常被称为风险中性的。这意味着，如果投资者总体上风险中性，市场隐含的前景将是无偏见的。总的来说，投资者是规避风险的——要求获得承担风险的溢价（股票风险溢价）。因此，正如我们在这里看到的，正回报和负回报之间概率密切匹配的市场隐含前景实际上是一种稍微看涨的观点。</blockquote> The market-implied outlook to the middle of 2022 (8.3 months), calculated using the prices of call and put options that expire on June 17, 2022, exhibits more of a negative tilt. Qualitative consideration of the potential for a negative bias leads me to characterize this outlook as neutral, perhaps with a slight bearish tilt. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 36.5%.<blockquote>使用2022年6月17日到期的看涨期权和看跌期权价格计算的2022年中期（8.3个月）的市场隐含前景显示出更多的负面倾斜。对潜在负面偏见的定性考虑使我将这种前景描述为中性，也许有轻微的看跌倾向。由此分布得出的年化波动率为36.5%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7731002b4fcd2fbea3e50f32512c507\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 8.3-month period from today until June 17, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)<blockquote>通用汽车从今天到2022年6月17日的8.3个月期间的市场隐含价格回报概率。分布的负回报侧已绕垂直轴旋转（来源：作者使用ETrade的期权报价进行计算）</blockquote> Contrast the current market-implied outlooks for GM with the 10.6-month outlook to January 2022 from my&nbsp;previous analysis&nbsp;in March, which was substantially bearish. In this outlook, the probabilities of negative price returns were much higher relative to those for positive returns. The current market-implied outlook, slightly bullish to early 2022 and neutral to mid-2022, is much more favorable than the outlook from my earlier analysis.<blockquote>将通用汽车当前的市场隐含前景与我之前3月份分析中截至2022年1月的10.6个月前景进行对比，该分析非常悲观。在这种前景中，相对于正回报，负价格回报的概率要高得多。目前市场隐含的前景，2022年初略有看涨，2022年中期中性，比我之前分析的前景要有利得多。</blockquote> Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> GM is at an important transition point in its history. The company needs to rapidly and convincingly shift away from traditional internal combustion vehicles and towards EVs and autonomous vehicles. The Wall Street analysts, as a group, are confident that GM can make strides in this direction and the analyst consensus has gotten more bullish through 2021. The Wall Street consensus rating is bullish, with about 27% expected 12-month price appreciation.<blockquote>通用汽车正处于其历史上的一个重要转折点。该公司需要迅速、令人信服地从传统内燃机汽车转向电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车。华尔街分析师作为一个群体，相信通用汽车能够在这个方向上取得长足进步，并且分析师的共识在2021年变得更加乐观。华尔街一致评级为看涨，约27%的人预计12个月价格将上涨。</blockquote> The projected volatility for GM, calculated from the market-implied outlook, is about 36%. This is a fairly high level of volatility, but looks reasonable if we believe that the expected return is 27%. As a rule of thumb for a buy, I want to see expected return that is at or above ½ of the volatility.<blockquote>根据市场隐含前景计算，通用汽车的预计波动性约为36%。这是一个相当高的波动水平，但如果我们相信预期回报率为27%，那么看起来是合理的。作为买入的经验法则，我希望看到预期回报等于或高于波动率的1/2。</blockquote> Taking the analyst expected return at face value, GM easily surpasses this threshold. The market-implied outlook to early 2022 is slightly bullish, shifting to neutral by mid-2022. The market-implied outlook for GM has improved dramatically since March, when it was significantly bearish. I am changing my rating on GM from neutral to bullish.<blockquote>从分析师的预期回报率来看，通用汽车轻松超过了这一门槛。市场对2022年初的隐含前景略有看涨，到2022年中期将转向中性。自3月份以来，市场对通用汽车的隐含前景已显着改善，当时通用汽车的前景明显看跌。我将对通用汽车的评级从中性改为看涨。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458959-favorable-outlook-for-gm\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458959-favorable-outlook-for-gm","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128736762","content_text":"Summary\n\nGM has struggled with the transition to EVs and other technology-forward efforts.\nThe Wall Street consensus is that GM will succeed sooner rather than later.\nThe market-implied outlook (derived from options prices) has shifted to a substantially more positive near-term view.\nI see GM as having a favorable risk-return profile.\n\nJHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nGeneral Motors(NYSE:GM)seems to be having a moment, with the share price rising 4.5% today, following an inspirational presentation to analysts. The company outlined its plan to be a leader in EVs and a vision for building a million self-driving cars by 2030. For GM, as with Ford(NYSE:F), the company recognizes that earnings growth and share valuation depend on aggressive technology-driven development. If GM can convince the market, and then demonstrate, that there is a real roadmap to higher-margin EVs and self-driving vehicles, the shares should demand a considerably higher price. After all, GM’s forward P/E is 8.8, as compared to TSLA’s 144.8.\nIntriguingly, the Wall Street analysts have already priced an outlook for GM’s transformation. The Wall Street analyst consensus price target for GM has surged to $71.3, as compared to $46.6 in February of 2020, right before COVID hit and $51 at the end of 2020. At the current share price of $56.30, the Wall Street consensus (as calculated by Seeking Alpha) is for 12-month price appreciation of 26.7%.\nWhen I last analyzed GM on March 7, 2021, seven months ago, the Wall Street consensus outlook was already bullish, with a 12-month price target that was about 20% above the share price at that time. Of the 19 analysts included in Seeking Alpha’s consensus outlook, 17 were bullish and 2 were neutral. I assigned GM a neutral rating at that time, largely because the outlook implied by options prices, in contrast to the Wall Street consensus, was bearish. The options market to early 2022 was indicating elevated probabilities of price declines. I compromised between the bullish Wall Street and the bearish options market view with a neutral rating. Since my post was published, GM has gained 4% (including the big rise today), as compared to 15.1% in price appreciation for the S&P 500.\nPerformance of GM vs. the S&P 500 over the past 7 months (Source: Seeking Alpha)\nUsing options prices to build a probabilistic price return outlook is conceptually straightforward. The price of an option represents the market’s consensus estimate for the probability that the price of the underlying stock (GM, in this case) will rise above (call option) or fall below (put option) a specific level (the strike price) between now and when the option expires. By analyzing calls and puts at a range of strike prices and a common expiration date, it is possible to calculate a probabilistic outlook for the underlying security that reconciles the options prices. This is referred to as the market-implied outlook. For readers seeking more information on this approach, I have written an overview post, including links to the relevant financial literature.\nIt is clear today, as it was for my last analysis, that GM is relying on the ability to compete with EVs and autonomous vehicles. The analysts are valuing the company assuming that GM will successfully make this transition. Even if one agrees, the challenge is in the timing. Since March, GM has suffered an expensive and embarrassing setback with the massive recall of Chevy electric vehicles. Even if one buys into management’s vision, one imagines that some car buyers will be reluctant to buy a GM EV after seeing pictures of charred Chevy Bolts.\nGM is currently 11.9% below its 2021 high close of $63.92, set on June 8. With 7 months since my last analysis, and with the market and the analysts responding favorably to GM’s vision, I am revisiting my rating on GM.\nWall Street Consensus Outlook for GM\nETrade’s calculation of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using the views of 13 ranked analysts who have issued ratings and price targets for GM within the past 90 days. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus 12-month price target is 27.5% above the current share price. There is a fairly high level of dispersion in the price targets, which reduces confidence in the consensus value. Of the 13 analysts, 12 give GM a buy rating and 1 assigns a neutral rating.\nWall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for GM (Source: ETrade)\nSeeking Alpha’s version of the Wall Street consensus outlook is calculated using ratings and prices targets from 21 analysts. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus price target is 26.7% above the current share price. Only 1 analyst is neutral and the other 20 are bullish.\nWall Street analyst consensus rating and 12-month price target for GM (Source: Seeking Alpha)\nThe good news for GM shareholders is that the analysts are almost uniformly bullish on GM and the average 12-month price target is about 27% above the current level. There are somewhat cautionary considerations, however. First, the spread among the price targets is high, which means that there is not a lot of confidence in the outlook. Second, the timing of a share price recovery is hard to predict. The analysts were bullish back in March, as well.\nMarket-Implied Outlook for GM\nI have analyzed the prices of call and put options at a range of strike prices, all expiring on January 21, 2022 to generate the market-implied outlook for the next 3.5 months (from today until the expiration date). In my previous analysis, I also calculated a market-implied outlook using options with this expiration date. I have also generated the market-implied outlook to mid 2022, a period of 8.3 months, by analyzing options that expire on June 21, 2022.\nThe standard presentation of the market-implied outlook is a probability distribution of price return, with probability on the vertical axis and return on the horizontal.\nMarket-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 3.5-month period from today until January 21, 2022 (Source: Author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)\nThe market-implied outlook for GM for the 3.5-month period between now and January 21, 2022 is generally symmetric, although the peak probability is slightly tilted towards negative returns, corresponding to a price return of -1.5%. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 35.7%, quite high for an individual stock.\nTo make it easier to directly compare the probabilities of positive and negative returns, I rotate the negative return side of the distribution about the vertical axis (see chart below).\nMarket-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 3.5-month period from today until January 21, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)\nThis view shows that the probabilities of positive and negative returns are almost identical for most outcomes (the solid blue line and the dashed red line are very close to one another). The exception is for small-magnitude price returns (+/- 5%).\nTheory predicts that the market-implied outlook will tend to be negatively biased because risk-averse investors pay more than fair value for put options to limit losses in long positions. In the financial literature, the market-implied outlook is often referred to as being risk-neutral. What this means is that the market-implied outlook would be unbiased if investors, in aggregate, were risk-neutral. Investors, collectively, are risk-averse - demanding to be paid a premium to take on risk (the equity risk premium). For this reason, a market-implied outlook with closely matching probabilities between positive and negative returns, as we see here, is actually a slightly bullish view.\nThe market-implied outlook to the middle of 2022 (8.3 months), calculated using the prices of call and put options that expire on June 17, 2022, exhibits more of a negative tilt. Qualitative consideration of the potential for a negative bias leads me to characterize this outlook as neutral, perhaps with a slight bearish tilt. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 36.5%.\nMarket-implied price return probabilities for GM for the 8.3-month period from today until June 17, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from ETrade)\nContrast the current market-implied outlooks for GM with the 10.6-month outlook to January 2022 from my previous analysis in March, which was substantially bearish. In this outlook, the probabilities of negative price returns were much higher relative to those for positive returns. The current market-implied outlook, slightly bullish to early 2022 and neutral to mid-2022, is much more favorable than the outlook from my earlier analysis.\nSummary\nGM is at an important transition point in its history. The company needs to rapidly and convincingly shift away from traditional internal combustion vehicles and towards EVs and autonomous vehicles. The Wall Street analysts, as a group, are confident that GM can make strides in this direction and the analyst consensus has gotten more bullish through 2021. The Wall Street consensus rating is bullish, with about 27% expected 12-month price appreciation.\nThe projected volatility for GM, calculated from the market-implied outlook, is about 36%. This is a fairly high level of volatility, but looks reasonable if we believe that the expected return is 27%. As a rule of thumb for a buy, I want to see expected return that is at or above ½ of the volatility.\nTaking the analyst expected return at face value, GM easily surpasses this threshold. The market-implied outlook to early 2022 is slightly bullish, shifting to neutral by mid-2022. The market-implied outlook for GM has improved dramatically since March, when it was significantly bearish. I am changing my rating on GM from neutral to bullish.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":66,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}