瑞银：艾马克技术飙涨已反映算力增长预期，下调评级以权衡成本风险_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

瑞银：艾马克技术飙涨已反映算力增长预期，下调评级以权衡成本风险

智通财经01-14

瑞银发布研报，将艾马克技术(AMKR.US)评级从“买入”下调至“中性”，但将目标价从38美元上调至55美元。该行指出其近期股价上涨反映了强劲的计算能力增长预期，但必须权衡成本和风险。瑞银指出，复苏动力在即，但必须权衡成本和下行风险。自2025年4月低点以来，艾马克技术股价已上涨250%，但瑞银将其评级下调至中性，因为股价反映了更快的计算能力增长预期、智能手机SiP的复苏、周期性主流市场复苏以及在...

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risks","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f10e65619fd0403e6a58ecc172b6018","symbols_score_info":{"NVDL":0.6,"MACW.SI":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"TSM":1,"ASX.AU":1,"NVD":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"03145":0.6,"AAPL":1,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"ASX":1,"UBS":1,"NVDA":1,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"AMKR":2,"NVDQ":0.6},"content_text":"瑞银发布研报，将艾马克技术(AMKR.US)评级从“买入”下调至“中性”，但将目标价从38美元上调至55美元。该行指出其近期股价上涨反映了强劲的计算能力增长预期，但必须权衡成本和风险。瑞银指出，复苏动力在即，但必须权衡成本和下行风险。自2025年4月低点以来，艾马克技术股价已上涨250%，但瑞银将其评级下调至中性，因为股价反映了更快的计算能力增长预期、智能手机SiP的复苏、周期性主流市场复苏以及在亚利桑那州建设长期项目的潜力。瑞银认为风险/回报更应保持中性，因为该公司正在建设价值70亿美元的亚利桑那州项目，未来几年将面临负自由现金流;内存价格上涨可能影响PC/智能手机销量;以及美国GPU能否持续供应中国市场(占2026年销售额的6%)或能否获得台积电的CoWoS-L封装技术或材料供应转移至日月光半导体。瑞银预计2026-2027年计算需求将强劲增长。该行将2025年销售额同比增长预期从5%上调至6%，但维持2026-2027年同比增长预期分别为14%/12%，高于市场预期的9%/9%。这主要得益于计算需求的快速增长、SiP/智能手机市场的稳定以及汽车/工业领域的复苏。瑞银预计，在以下情景下，先进封装(CoWoS-S/L/R 和 oS)将在两年内新增10亿美元的销售额(占2027年销售额的5%至16%)：英伟达的H200获得批准、CPO切换、Vera CPU(采用SPIL双源封装)、英伟达的N1/N1X/GB10、ASIC以及CoWoS-L TPU将在2027年之前投入使用，并且oS业务也将实现增长。总计算能力(包括 CPU、交换机和网络)将从 2025 年的 20% 增长到 2027 年的 28%。其次，成熟业务增长较为温和。计算业务的高增长被艾马克技术核心低利润的SiP(系统集成芯片)消费电子、智能手机和汽车/工业领域的成熟驱动因素所平衡。SiP业务与苹果业务重叠，2024年底，其销售额占比分别为49%/31%，汽车/工业业务占比为19%。瑞银预计2026-2027年将出现温和复苏：1)汽车/工业业务预计增长10%/5%，因为新冠疫情后的库存已恢复正常，且艾马克技术在ADAS/信息娱乐领域拥有优势;2)通信业务预计增长11%/6%，因为SiP业务将在2026年全面恢复，届时Wi-Fi接口、新型可折叠/可变光圈摄像头以及相比主流安卓系统更低的阻力都将得到提升;3)消费电子业务预计增长4%/2%，因为可穿戴耳机等产品基数较高。投资周期延长和高估值限制了其上涨空间。艾马克技术投资70亿美元、分两期建设的亚利桑那州晶圆厂要到2028年才能投产，2029年才能开始盈利。一期工程(潜在营收10%)耗资35亿美元，可享受35%的税收抵免和4.07亿美元的政府补助。瑞银预计，从2025年第四季度到2028年，该项目将出现10亿美元的负自由现金流，导致现金收益率低于目前的1%。瑞银下调评级、上调目标价的依据是：2027 年预期市净率为2.5倍(隐含20倍市盈率)，而2026年的预期市净率为 2.5 倍(隐含15倍市盈率)，高端产品线(含AI产品)到 2027 年销售额占比将达到 15-20%，净资产收益率将从 2025 年的 7% 提高到 2026-2029 年的 13%，同业公司日月光半导体目前的市盈率为 20 倍(2026年)，以及 2025-2029 年周期性每股收益复合年增长率为 33%。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}