Stocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

Stocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now

Barron's2021-04-01

Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective. The S&P 500 rallied 5.8% for the ...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

JYong
·2021-04-01
Anyone got any stocks to recommend?
回复
点赞
举报
Daveb
·2021-04-01
I love it how these people are sooo clever in hindsight but totally lacking in foresight. However they are so called experts.😂😂😂
回复
1
举报
收起
- doubleZ:
  @Daveb I didn’t ask you earlier but where are you from?
  2021-04-05
  回复
  举报
- doubleZ回复Daveb:
  Nahh that’s not the other side because i’m from Singapore. So aside from US market, any other market you have stocks invested in?
  2021-04-05
  回复
  举报
- doubleZ回复Daveb:
  I looked up IMU and really its not much. Even the shareholders chart seems risky. But since you already Added in at such a cheap price. Anyway if you looking to invest in SG market, go for the banks
  2021-04-06
  回复
  举报
查看更多 2 条评论
Woogy
·2021-04-01
Which stock to buy?? Tiger Brokers!!!!
回复
点赞
举报
The0
·2021-04-01
👍🏻
回复
点赞
举报
Derrickhodl
·2021-04-01
Not yet. HODL
回复
7
举报
收起
- Nsim:
  Nice
  2021-04-02
  回复
  举报
- huatking:
  sweet
  2021-04-02
  回复
  举报
- SGoh:
  Nice
  2021-04-03
  回复
  举报
Wallstrtbets
·2021-04-01
Bravo.
回复
4
举报
mcwood
·2021-04-01
[得意]
回复
3
举报
KinKat
·2021-04-01
So.... Starting looking for stocks with PE <20... [惊讶]
回复
3
举报
Squidworth
·2021-04-01
Good first quarter??seriously?
回复
2
举报
JuanPeppa
·2021-04-01
Heavy on growth stocks? Rotation back to tech pls🙏
回复
4
举报
Shifeng
·2021-04-01
I think it is time to be more selective, take a look on analysis tab will help.
回复
4
举报
Soonyee
·2021-04-01
Leave a comment please haha
回复
4
举报
FuJie1010
·2021-04-01
Pick the stock carefully now
回复
4
举报
HOTBE
·2021-04-01
Obviously!
回复
1
举报
收起
- KLS:
  buy
  2021-04-01
  回复
  举报
Sotong
·2021-04-01
like and comment
回复
1
举报
收起
- Huathk:
  Gd
  2021-04-01
  回复
  举报
- KLS:
  buy
  2021-04-01
  回复
  举报
Kok
·2021-04-01
Please like n comment on my post. Tks!
回复
3
举报
收起
- Otahman:
  DoNe help me too
  2021-04-01
  回复
  举报
- Sotong:
  comment back
  2021-04-01
  回复
  举报
Alvinwong
·2021-04-01
Like and comment pls
回复
6
举报
收起
- Kok:
  please reply to my comment. tks!
  2021-04-01
  回复
  举报

热议股票

7x24

全部

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127042118?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2021-04-01 15:57","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"1127042118","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"Stocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now","media":"Barron's","content":"<div>\nStocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.\nThe S&P 500 rallied 5.8% for the ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-had-a-good-quarter-significant-gains-are-less-likely-now-51617219322?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1610680873436","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-01 15:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-had-a-good-quarter-significant-gains-are-less-likely-now-51617219322?mod=hp_LEAD_1>Barron's</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nStocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.\nThe S&P 500 rallied 5.8% for the ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-had-a-good-quarter-significant-gains-are-less-likely-now-51617219322?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"SPY","symbol_name":"标普500ETF","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-had-a-good-quarter-significant-gains-are-less-likely-now-51617219322?mod=hp_LEAD_1","article_id":"1127042118","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127042118","pubTimestamp":1617263854,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1610680873436","name":"Barron's"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"barrons.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"translate_title":"股市第一季度表现良好。现在不太可能取得重大收益","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9},"content_text":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.\nThe S&P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.\nThe economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.\nThe economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.\nBecause they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.\nCyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.\nWhere the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”\nStocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.\nAnd while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.\nMeanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.\nIt would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.\nThe yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.\nEarnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.\nStill, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.\nHigher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&P 500—may have peaked.\nA chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.\nFortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.\nNow is the time to be picky.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":357513434,"gmtCreate":1617284797528,"gmtModify":1634521615004,"author":{"id":"3579773044107425","authorId":"3579773044107425","name":"JYong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a6a29aec031bf2795641c10f1fc053f","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3579773044107425","idStr":"3579773044107425"},"htmlText":"Anyone got any stocks to recommend?","listText":"Anyone got any stocks to recommend?","text":"Anyone got any stocks to recommend?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357513434","repostId":1127042118,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127042118","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617263854,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127042118?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-01 15:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127042118","media":"Barron's","summary":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors ","content":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.<blockquote>股市第一季度表现强劲，但上涨步伐可能会放缓。虽然投资者不一定应该纾困，但他们应该变得更加有选择性。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.<blockquote>今年前三个月，标普500上涨5.8%。有利因素很多：Covid-19疫苗接种速度加快，而数万亿美元的政府支出支撑了需求。</blockquote> The economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.<blockquote>经济正在从2020年封锁造成的损害中迅速反弹。ADP周三公布的数据显示，美国3月份私营部门新增就业岗位517,000个，为9月份以来的最高总数。1月份零售额比12月份高出5%。</blockquote> The economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.<blockquote>经济反弹解释了罗素2000指数今年年初上涨13%的原因。小市值公司（例如罗素指数中的公司）的盈利波动往往比大公司大得多。</blockquote> Because they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.<blockquote>由于他们规模较小，他们发现在困难时期更难削减成本，因此当经济恶化时，他们的收入下降得更严重。另一方面，当情况改善时，利润会增加。此外，他们获得资本的机会相对有限，这使得他们更难度过经济低迷时期，因此他们的股票可能会随着经济变化而暴跌和飙升。</blockquote> Cyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.<blockquote>出于类似的原因，从银行到石油生产商再到非必需消费品销售商，无论大小周期性股票今年的表现都优于大盘。与公用事业或消费必需品公司相比，他们看到了经济回暖时的巨大好处。</blockquote> Where the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”<blockquote>现在市场的走向还不太清楚。德美利证券首席市场策略师JJ Kinahan表示：“我们正处于十字路口。”“每个人都在试图弄清楚接下来会发生什么。其中一部分是观望。”</blockquote> Stocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.<blockquote>股市缺乏大量上涨动力。公司已经完成了第四季度的收益报告，对疫苗的预期不会好到哪里去，政府支撑经济的支出也将下降，至少按年计算是这样。拜登政府提出的2万亿美元基础设施支出将跨越八年，相当于每年2500亿美元。</blockquote> And while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.<blockquote>尽管经济消息可能会继续改善，但反弹可能已经见顶。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师迈克·威尔逊在一份报告中写道，经济可能会“个人收入、采购经理人指数和GDP的变化速度放缓”。</blockquote> Meanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&amp;P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.<blockquote>与此同时，股市已经反映了大部分积极消息，因为估值很高。标普500股票的平均市盈率是来年预期每股收益的22倍，而华尔街的一些策略师在对该指数做出预测时假设的市盈率是20倍。</blockquote> It would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.<blockquote>如果估值回到20倍也就不足为奇了，这意味着除非盈利增长超过预期，否则股市几乎不会上涨。尤其如此，因为安全政府债务的收益率正在上升，使得债券作为替代方案更具吸引力。</blockquote> The yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.<blockquote>10年期国债收益率已从年初的0.91%攀升至周三的1.72%。预计今年将接近2%。</blockquote> Earnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&amp;P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.<blockquote>花旗集团策略师的一项调查显示，预计到2022年，盈利将继续强劲增长，但估值下行压力使许多基金经理预计今年标准普尔指数走势基本持平。</blockquote> Still, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.<blockquote>尽管如此，今年晚些时候发布的收益报告可能会包含积极的惊喜。瑞士信贷最近一份报告的数据显示，收入增长往往是国内生产总值增长的两倍左右。市场普遍预期今年GDP将增长7%左右，因此收入将增长14%左右，而不是FactSet数据显示华尔街预测的9%。</blockquote> Higher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&amp;P 500—may have peaked.<blockquote>更高的收入增长意味着更高的盈利增长，以及股票的持续上涨。一种反驳观点是，所谓的盈利预测上调幅度——即评级对标普500各行业公司利润的影响程度——可能已经见顶。</blockquote> A chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师威尔逊发布的一份研究报告中的图表显示，广度最近达到了2018年和2010年的水平。在这两种情况下，广度都迅速急剧下降，更多公司的盈利预测被下调。投资者可能会惊喜地看到盈利预期从这里上升，但一些数据表明他们不应该指望这一点。</blockquote> Fortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.<blockquote>幸运的是，小盘价值股的近期盈利增长更强劲，估值也更可容忍。无论盈利预测是上升还是下降，它们的表现都可能继续优于大盘股。</blockquote> Now is the time to be picky.<blockquote>现在是挑剔的时候了。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-04-01 15:57\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nStocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.<blockquote>股市第一季度表现强劲，但上涨步伐可能会放缓。虽然投资者不一定应该纾困，但他们应该变得更加有选择性。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.<blockquote>今年前三个月，标普500上涨5.8%。有利因素很多：Covid-19疫苗接种速度加快，而数万亿美元的政府支出支撑了需求。</blockquote> The economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.<blockquote>经济正在从2020年封锁造成的损害中迅速反弹。ADP周三公布的数据显示，美国3月份私营部门新增就业岗位517,000个，为9月份以来的最高总数。1月份零售额比12月份高出5%。</blockquote> The economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.<blockquote>经济反弹解释了罗素2000指数今年年初上涨13%的原因。小市值公司（例如罗素指数中的公司）的盈利波动往往比大公司大得多。</blockquote> Because they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.<blockquote>由于他们规模较小，他们发现在困难时期更难削减成本，因此当经济恶化时，他们的收入下降得更严重。另一方面，当情况改善时，利润会增加。此外，他们获得资本的机会相对有限，这使得他们更难度过经济低迷时期，因此他们的股票可能会随着经济变化而暴跌和飙升。</blockquote> Cyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.<blockquote>出于类似的原因，从银行到石油生产商再到非必需消费品销售商，无论大小周期性股票今年的表现都优于大盘。与公用事业或消费必需品公司相比，他们看到了经济回暖时的巨大好处。</blockquote> Where the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”<blockquote>现在市场的走向还不太清楚。德美利证券首席市场策略师JJ Kinahan表示：“我们正处于十字路口。”“每个人都在试图弄清楚接下来会发生什么。其中一部分是观望。”</blockquote> Stocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.<blockquote>股市缺乏大量上涨动力。公司已经完成了第四季度的收益报告，对疫苗的预期不会好到哪里去，政府支撑经济的支出也将下降，至少按年计算是这样。拜登政府提出的2万亿美元基础设施支出将跨越八年，相当于每年2500亿美元。</blockquote> And while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.<blockquote>尽管经济消息可能会继续改善，但反弹可能已经见顶。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师迈克·威尔逊在一份报告中写道，经济可能会“个人收入、采购经理人指数和GDP的变化速度放缓”。</blockquote> Meanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&amp;P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.<blockquote>与此同时，股市已经反映了大部分积极消息，因为估值很高。标普500股票的平均市盈率是来年预期每股收益的22倍，而华尔街的一些策略师在对该指数做出预测时假设的市盈率是20倍。</blockquote> It would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.<blockquote>如果估值回到20倍也就不足为奇了，这意味着除非盈利增长超过预期，否则股市几乎不会上涨。尤其如此，因为安全政府债务的收益率正在上升，使得债券作为替代方案更具吸引力。</blockquote> The yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.<blockquote>10年期国债收益率已从年初的0.91%攀升至周三的1.72%。预计今年将接近2%。</blockquote> Earnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&amp;P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.<blockquote>花旗集团策略师的一项调查显示，预计到2022年，盈利将继续强劲增长，但估值下行压力使许多基金经理预计今年标准普尔指数走势基本持平。</blockquote> Still, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.<blockquote>尽管如此，今年晚些时候发布的收益报告可能会包含积极的惊喜。瑞士信贷最近一份报告的数据显示，收入增长往往是国内生产总值增长的两倍左右。市场普遍预期今年GDP将增长7%左右，因此收入将增长14%左右，而不是FactSet数据显示华尔街预测的9%。</blockquote> Higher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&amp;P 500—may have peaked.<blockquote>更高的收入增长意味着更高的盈利增长，以及股票的持续上涨。一种反驳观点是，所谓的盈利预测上调幅度——即评级对标普500各行业公司利润的影响程度——可能已经见顶。</blockquote> A chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师威尔逊发布的一份研究报告中的图表显示，广度最近达到了2018年和2010年的水平。在这两种情况下，广度都迅速急剧下降，更多公司的盈利预测被下调。投资者可能会惊喜地看到盈利预期从这里上升，但一些数据表明他们不应该指望这一点。</blockquote> Fortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.<blockquote>幸运的是，小盘价值股的近期盈利增长更强劲，估值也更可容忍。无论盈利预测是上升还是下降，它们的表现都可能继续优于大盘股。</blockquote> Now is the time to be picky.<blockquote>现在是挑剔的时候了。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-had-a-good-quarter-significant-gains-are-less-likely-now-51617219322?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-had-a-good-quarter-significant-gains-are-less-likely-now-51617219322?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127042118","content_text":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.\nThe S&P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.\nThe economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.\nThe economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.\nBecause they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.\nCyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.\nWhere the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”\nStocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.\nAnd while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.\nMeanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.\nIt would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.\nThe yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.\nEarnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.\nStill, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.\nHigher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&P 500—may have peaked.\nA chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.\nFortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.\nNow is the time to be picky.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":357596711,"gmtCreate":1617284112233,"gmtModify":1617284925828,"author":{"id":"3575141057639271","authorId":"3575141057639271","name":"Daveb","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61df162e1597f1b5a6a6bfb13d7d92f5","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3575141057639271","idStr":"3575141057639271"},"htmlText":"I love it how these people are sooo clever in hindsight but totally lacking in foresight. However they are so called experts.😂😂😂","listText":"I love it how these people are sooo clever in hindsight but totally lacking in foresight. However they are so called experts.😂😂😂","text":"I love it how these people are sooo clever in hindsight but totally lacking in foresight. However they are so called experts.😂😂😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":15,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357596711","repostId":1127042118,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127042118","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617263854,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127042118?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-01 15:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127042118","media":"Barron's","summary":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors ","content":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.<blockquote>股市第一季度表现强劲，但上涨步伐可能会放缓。虽然投资者不一定应该纾困，但他们应该变得更加有选择性。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.<blockquote>今年前三个月，标普500上涨5.8%。有利因素很多：Covid-19疫苗接种速度加快，而数万亿美元的政府支出支撑了需求。</blockquote> The economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.<blockquote>经济正在从2020年封锁造成的损害中迅速反弹。ADP周三公布的数据显示，美国3月份私营部门新增就业岗位517,000个，为9月份以来的最高总数。1月份零售额比12月份高出5%。</blockquote> The economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.<blockquote>经济反弹解释了罗素2000指数今年年初上涨13%的原因。小市值公司（例如罗素指数中的公司）的盈利波动往往比大公司大得多。</blockquote> Because they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.<blockquote>由于他们规模较小，他们发现在困难时期更难削减成本，因此当经济恶化时，他们的收入下降得更严重。另一方面，当情况改善时，利润会增加。此外，他们获得资本的机会相对有限，这使得他们更难度过经济低迷时期，因此他们的股票可能会随着经济变化而暴跌和飙升。</blockquote> Cyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.<blockquote>出于类似的原因，从银行到石油生产商再到非必需消费品销售商，无论大小周期性股票今年的表现都优于大盘。与公用事业或消费必需品公司相比，他们看到了经济回暖时的巨大好处。</blockquote> Where the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”<blockquote>现在市场的走向还不太清楚。德美利证券首席市场策略师JJ Kinahan表示：“我们正处于十字路口。”“每个人都在试图弄清楚接下来会发生什么。其中一部分是观望。”</blockquote> Stocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.<blockquote>股市缺乏大量上涨动力。公司已经完成了第四季度的收益报告，对疫苗的预期不会好到哪里去，政府支撑经济的支出也将下降，至少按年计算是这样。拜登政府提出的2万亿美元基础设施支出将跨越八年，相当于每年2500亿美元。</blockquote> And while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.<blockquote>尽管经济消息可能会继续改善，但反弹可能已经见顶。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师迈克·威尔逊在一份报告中写道，经济可能会“个人收入、采购经理人指数和GDP的变化速度放缓”。</blockquote> Meanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&amp;P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.<blockquote>与此同时，股市已经反映了大部分积极消息，因为估值很高。标普500股票的平均市盈率是来年预期每股收益的22倍，而华尔街的一些策略师在对该指数做出预测时假设的市盈率是20倍。</blockquote> It would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.<blockquote>如果估值回到20倍也就不足为奇了，这意味着除非盈利增长超过预期，否则股市几乎不会上涨。尤其如此，因为安全政府债务的收益率正在上升，使得债券作为替代方案更具吸引力。</blockquote> The yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.<blockquote>10年期国债收益率已从年初的0.91%攀升至周三的1.72%。预计今年将接近2%。</blockquote> Earnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&amp;P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.<blockquote>花旗集团策略师的一项调查显示，预计到2022年，盈利将继续强劲增长，但估值下行压力使许多基金经理预计今年标准普尔指数走势基本持平。</blockquote> Still, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.<blockquote>尽管如此，今年晚些时候发布的收益报告可能会包含积极的惊喜。瑞士信贷最近一份报告的数据显示，收入增长往往是国内生产总值增长的两倍左右。市场普遍预期今年GDP将增长7%左右，因此收入将增长14%左右，而不是FactSet数据显示华尔街预测的9%。</blockquote> Higher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&amp;P 500—may have peaked.<blockquote>更高的收入增长意味着更高的盈利增长，以及股票的持续上涨。一种反驳观点是，所谓的盈利预测上调幅度——即评级对标普500各行业公司利润的影响程度——可能已经见顶。</blockquote> A chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师威尔逊发布的一份研究报告中的图表显示，广度最近达到了2018年和2010年的水平。在这两种情况下，广度都迅速急剧下降，更多公司的盈利预测被下调。投资者可能会惊喜地看到盈利预期从这里上升，但一些数据表明他们不应该指望这一点。</blockquote> Fortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.<blockquote>幸运的是，小盘价值股的近期盈利增长更强劲，估值也更可容忍。无论盈利预测是上升还是下降，它们的表现都可能继续优于大盘股。</blockquote> Now is the time to be picky.<blockquote>现在是挑剔的时候了。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-04-01 15:57\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nStocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.<blockquote>股市第一季度表现强劲，但上涨步伐可能会放缓。虽然投资者不一定应该纾困，但他们应该变得更加有选择性。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.<blockquote>今年前三个月，标普500上涨5.8%。有利因素很多：Covid-19疫苗接种速度加快，而数万亿美元的政府支出支撑了需求。</blockquote> The economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.<blockquote>经济正在从2020年封锁造成的损害中迅速反弹。ADP周三公布的数据显示，美国3月份私营部门新增就业岗位517,000个，为9月份以来的最高总数。1月份零售额比12月份高出5%。</blockquote> The economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.<blockquote>经济反弹解释了罗素2000指数今年年初上涨13%的原因。小市值公司（例如罗素指数中的公司）的盈利波动往往比大公司大得多。</blockquote> Because they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.<blockquote>由于他们规模较小，他们发现在困难时期更难削减成本，因此当经济恶化时，他们的收入下降得更严重。另一方面，当情况改善时，利润会增加。此外，他们获得资本的机会相对有限，这使得他们更难度过经济低迷时期，因此他们的股票可能会随着经济变化而暴跌和飙升。</blockquote> Cyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.<blockquote>出于类似的原因，从银行到石油生产商再到非必需消费品销售商，无论大小周期性股票今年的表现都优于大盘。与公用事业或消费必需品公司相比，他们看到了经济回暖时的巨大好处。</blockquote> Where the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”<blockquote>现在市场的走向还不太清楚。德美利证券首席市场策略师JJ Kinahan表示：“我们正处于十字路口。”“每个人都在试图弄清楚接下来会发生什么。其中一部分是观望。”</blockquote> Stocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.<blockquote>股市缺乏大量上涨动力。公司已经完成了第四季度的收益报告，对疫苗的预期不会好到哪里去，政府支撑经济的支出也将下降，至少按年计算是这样。拜登政府提出的2万亿美元基础设施支出将跨越八年，相当于每年2500亿美元。</blockquote> And while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.<blockquote>尽管经济消息可能会继续改善，但反弹可能已经见顶。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师迈克·威尔逊在一份报告中写道，经济可能会“个人收入、采购经理人指数和GDP的变化速度放缓”。</blockquote> Meanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&amp;P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.<blockquote>与此同时，股市已经反映了大部分积极消息，因为估值很高。标普500股票的平均市盈率是来年预期每股收益的22倍，而华尔街的一些策略师在对该指数做出预测时假设的市盈率是20倍。</blockquote> It would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.<blockquote>如果估值回到20倍也就不足为奇了，这意味着除非盈利增长超过预期，否则股市几乎不会上涨。尤其如此，因为安全政府债务的收益率正在上升，使得债券作为替代方案更具吸引力。</blockquote> The yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.<blockquote>10年期国债收益率已从年初的0.91%攀升至周三的1.72%。预计今年将接近2%。</blockquote> Earnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&amp;P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.<blockquote>花旗集团策略师的一项调查显示，预计到2022年，盈利将继续强劲增长，但估值下行压力使许多基金经理预计今年标准普尔指数走势基本持平。</blockquote> Still, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.<blockquote>尽管如此，今年晚些时候发布的收益报告可能会包含积极的惊喜。瑞士信贷最近一份报告的数据显示，收入增长往往是国内生产总值增长的两倍左右。市场普遍预期今年GDP将增长7%左右，因此收入将增长14%左右，而不是FactSet数据显示华尔街预测的9%。</blockquote> Higher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&amp;P 500—may have peaked.<blockquote>更高的收入增长意味着更高的盈利增长，以及股票的持续上涨。一种反驳观点是，所谓的盈利预测上调幅度——即评级对标普500各行业公司利润的影响程度——可能已经见顶。</blockquote> A chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师威尔逊发布的一份研究报告中的图表显示，广度最近达到了2018年和2010年的水平。在这两种情况下，广度都迅速急剧下降，更多公司的盈利预测被下调。投资者可能会惊喜地看到盈利预期从这里上升，但一些数据表明他们不应该指望这一点。</blockquote> Fortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.<blockquote>幸运的是，小盘价值股的近期盈利增长更强劲，估值也更可容忍。无论盈利预测是上升还是下降，它们的表现都可能继续优于大盘股。</blockquote> Now is the time to be picky.<blockquote>现在是挑剔的时候了。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-had-a-good-quarter-significant-gains-are-less-likely-now-51617219322?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-had-a-good-quarter-significant-gains-are-less-likely-now-51617219322?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127042118","content_text":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.\nThe S&P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.\nThe economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.\nThe economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.\nBecause they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.\nCyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.\nWhere the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”\nStocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.\nAnd while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.\nMeanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.\nIt would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.\nThe yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.\nEarnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.\nStill, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.\nHigher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&P 500—may have peaked.\nA chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.\nFortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.\nNow is the time to be picky.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3957334,"gmtCreate":1617552006924,"gmtModify":1635744202864,"authorId":3556582009315298,"author":{"id":3556582009315298,"idStr":"3556582009315298","authorId":3556582009315298,"name":"doubleZ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90d125f550abadf09dc8f4dace09e00c","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":357596711,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3575141057639271\"> @Daveb</a> I didn’t ask you earlier but where are you from?","text":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3575141057639271\"> @Daveb</a> I didn’t ask you earlier but where are you from?","html":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3575141057639271\"> @Daveb</a> I didn’t ask you earlier but where are you from?"},{"id":3957638,"gmtCreate":1617573938593,"gmtModify":1635744182135,"authorId":3556582009315298,"author":{"id":3556582009315298,"idStr":"3556582009315298","authorId":3556582009315298,"name":"doubleZ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90d125f550abadf09dc8f4dace09e00c","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":3575141057639271,"repliedAuthor":{"id":3575141057639271,"idStr":"3575141057639271","authorId":3575141057639271,"name":"Daveb","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61df162e1597f1b5a6a6bfb13d7d92f5","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"objectId":357596711,"type":1,"supId":3957334,"prevId":3957555,"content":"Nahh that’s not the other side because i’m from Singapore. So aside from US market, any other market you have stocks invested in?","text":"Nahh that’s not the other side because i’m from Singapore. So aside from US market, any other market you have stocks invested in?","html":"Nahh that’s not the other side because i’m from Singapore. So aside from US market, any other market you have stocks invested in?"},{"id":3971539,"gmtCreate":1617718508164,"gmtModify":1635743211951,"authorId":3556582009315298,"author":{"id":3556582009315298,"idStr":"3556582009315298","authorId":3556582009315298,"name":"doubleZ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90d125f550abadf09dc8f4dace09e00c","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":3575141057639271,"repliedAuthor":{"id":3575141057639271,"idStr":"3575141057639271","authorId":3575141057639271,"name":"Daveb","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61df162e1597f1b5a6a6bfb13d7d92f5","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"objectId":357596711,"type":1,"supId":3957334,"prevId":3958161,"content":"I looked up IMU and really its not much. Even the shareholders chart seems risky. But since you already Added in at such a cheap price. Anyway if you looking to invest in SG market, go for the banks","text":"I looked up IMU and really its not much. Even the shareholders chart seems risky. But since you already Added in at such a cheap price. Anyway if you looking to invest in SG market, go for the banks","html":"I looked up IMU and really its not much. Even the shareholders chart seems risky. But since you already Added in at such a cheap price. Anyway if you looking to invest in SG market, go for the banks"},{"id":3981460,"gmtCreate":1617831134399,"gmtModify":1635742570354,"authorId":3556582009315298,"author":{"id":3556582009315298,"idStr":"3556582009315298","authorId":3556582009315298,"name":"doubleZ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90d125f550abadf09dc8f4dace09e00c","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":3575141057639271,"repliedAuthor":{"id":3575141057639271,"idStr":"3575141057639271","authorId":3575141057639271,"name":"Daveb","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61df162e1597f1b5a6a6bfb13d7d92f5","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"objectId":357596711,"type":1,"supId":3957334,"prevId":3977306,"content":"Well since its your friend &amp; you trust him. As long you dont fall for the suits. Anyway, save up. Be prepared for next week. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\"> $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$</a> IPO Hehe","text":"Well since its your friend &amp; you trust him. As long you dont fall for the suits. Anyway, save up. Be prepared for next week. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\"> $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$</a> IPO Hehe","html":"Well since its your friend &amp; you trust him. As long you dont fall for the suits. Anyway, save up. Be prepared for next week. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\"> $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$</a> IPO Hehe"},{"id":4004526,"gmtCreate":1618085911863,"gmtModify":1635741042068,"authorId":3556582009315298,"author":{"id":3556582009315298,"idStr":"3556582009315298","authorId":3556582009315298,"name":"doubleZ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90d125f550abadf09dc8f4dace09e00c","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":3575141057639271,"repliedAuthor":{"id":3575141057639271,"idStr":"3575141057639271","authorId":3575141057639271,"name":"Daveb","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61df162e1597f1b5a6a6bfb13d7d92f5","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"objectId":357596711,"type":1,"supId":3957334,"prevId":4004523,"content":"Oh no no the entire community is not down. You just have to wait the next day because Tiger Audits Posts before Officially allowing to Publish. ","text":"Oh no no the entire community is not down. You just have to wait the next day because Tiger Audits Posts before Officially allowing to Publish. ","html":"Oh no no the entire community is not down. You just have to wait the next day because Tiger Audits Posts before Officially allowing to Publish. "}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":357246024,"gmtCreate":1617281735068,"gmtModify":1634521636800,"author":{"id":"3577239452657382","authorId":"3577239452657382","name":"Woogy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c56113ccd7681dab9948c35b0aed144","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3577239452657382","idStr":"3577239452657382"},"htmlText":"Which stock to buy?? Tiger Brokers!!!!","listText":"Which stock to buy?? Tiger Brokers!!!!","text":"Which stock to buy?? Tiger Brokers!!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357246024","repostId":1127042118,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127042118","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617263854,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127042118?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-01 15:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127042118","media":"Barron's","summary":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors ","content":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.<blockquote>股市第一季度表现强劲，但上涨步伐可能会放缓。虽然投资者不一定应该纾困，但他们应该变得更加有选择性。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.<blockquote>今年前三个月，标普500上涨5.8%。有利因素很多：Covid-19疫苗接种速度加快，而数万亿美元的政府支出支撑了需求。</blockquote> The economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.<blockquote>经济正在从2020年封锁造成的损害中迅速反弹。ADP周三公布的数据显示，美国3月份私营部门新增就业岗位517,000个，为9月份以来的最高总数。1月份零售额比12月份高出5%。</blockquote> The economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.<blockquote>经济反弹解释了罗素2000指数今年年初上涨13%的原因。小市值公司（例如罗素指数中的公司）的盈利波动往往比大公司大得多。</blockquote> Because they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.<blockquote>由于他们规模较小，他们发现在困难时期更难削减成本，因此当经济恶化时，他们的收入下降得更严重。另一方面，当情况改善时，利润会增加。此外，他们获得资本的机会相对有限，这使得他们更难度过经济低迷时期，因此他们的股票可能会随着经济变化而暴跌和飙升。</blockquote> Cyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.<blockquote>出于类似的原因，从银行到石油生产商再到非必需消费品销售商，无论大小周期性股票今年的表现都优于大盘。与公用事业或消费必需品公司相比，他们看到了经济回暖时的巨大好处。</blockquote> Where the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”<blockquote>现在市场的走向还不太清楚。德美利证券首席市场策略师JJ Kinahan表示：“我们正处于十字路口。”“每个人都在试图弄清楚接下来会发生什么。其中一部分是观望。”</blockquote> Stocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.<blockquote>股市缺乏大量上涨动力。公司已经完成了第四季度的收益报告，对疫苗的预期不会好到哪里去，政府支撑经济的支出也将下降，至少按年计算是这样。拜登政府提出的2万亿美元基础设施支出将跨越八年，相当于每年2500亿美元。</blockquote> And while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.<blockquote>尽管经济消息可能会继续改善，但反弹可能已经见顶。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师迈克·威尔逊在一份报告中写道，经济可能会“个人收入、采购经理人指数和GDP的变化速度放缓”。</blockquote> Meanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&amp;P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.<blockquote>与此同时，股市已经反映了大部分积极消息，因为估值很高。标普500股票的平均市盈率是来年预期每股收益的22倍，而华尔街的一些策略师在对该指数做出预测时假设的市盈率是20倍。</blockquote> It would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.<blockquote>如果估值回到20倍也就不足为奇了，这意味着除非盈利增长超过预期，否则股市几乎不会上涨。尤其如此，因为安全政府债务的收益率正在上升，使得债券作为替代方案更具吸引力。</blockquote> The yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.<blockquote>10年期国债收益率已从年初的0.91%攀升至周三的1.72%。预计今年将接近2%。</blockquote> Earnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&amp;P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.<blockquote>花旗集团策略师的一项调查显示，预计到2022年，盈利将继续强劲增长，但估值下行压力使许多基金经理预计今年标准普尔指数走势基本持平。</blockquote> Still, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.<blockquote>尽管如此，今年晚些时候发布的收益报告可能会包含积极的惊喜。瑞士信贷最近一份报告的数据显示，收入增长往往是国内生产总值增长的两倍左右。市场普遍预期今年GDP将增长7%左右，因此收入将增长14%左右，而不是FactSet数据显示华尔街预测的9%。</blockquote> Higher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&amp;P 500—may have peaked.<blockquote>更高的收入增长意味着更高的盈利增长，以及股票的持续上涨。一种反驳观点是，所谓的盈利预测上调幅度——即评级对标普500各行业公司利润的影响程度——可能已经见顶。</blockquote> A chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师威尔逊发布的一份研究报告中的图表显示，广度最近达到了2018年和2010年的水平。在这两种情况下，广度都迅速急剧下降，更多公司的盈利预测被下调。投资者可能会惊喜地看到盈利预期从这里上升，但一些数据表明他们不应该指望这一点。</blockquote> Fortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.<blockquote>幸运的是，小盘价值股的近期盈利增长更强劲，估值也更可容忍。无论盈利预测是上升还是下降，它们的表现都可能继续优于大盘股。</blockquote> Now is the time to be picky.<blockquote>现在是挑剔的时候了。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-04-01 15:57\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nStocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.<blockquote>股市第一季度表现强劲，但上涨步伐可能会放缓。虽然投资者不一定应该纾困，但他们应该变得更加有选择性。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.<blockquote>今年前三个月，标普500上涨5.8%。有利因素很多：Covid-19疫苗接种速度加快，而数万亿美元的政府支出支撑了需求。</blockquote> The economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.<blockquote>经济正在从2020年封锁造成的损害中迅速反弹。ADP周三公布的数据显示，美国3月份私营部门新增就业岗位517,000个，为9月份以来的最高总数。1月份零售额比12月份高出5%。</blockquote> The economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.<blockquote>经济反弹解释了罗素2000指数今年年初上涨13%的原因。小市值公司（例如罗素指数中的公司）的盈利波动往往比大公司大得多。</blockquote> Because they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.<blockquote>由于他们规模较小，他们发现在困难时期更难削减成本，因此当经济恶化时，他们的收入下降得更严重。另一方面，当情况改善时，利润会增加。此外，他们获得资本的机会相对有限，这使得他们更难度过经济低迷时期，因此他们的股票可能会随着经济变化而暴跌和飙升。</blockquote> Cyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.<blockquote>出于类似的原因，从银行到石油生产商再到非必需消费品销售商，无论大小周期性股票今年的表现都优于大盘。与公用事业或消费必需品公司相比，他们看到了经济回暖时的巨大好处。</blockquote> Where the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”<blockquote>现在市场的走向还不太清楚。德美利证券首席市场策略师JJ Kinahan表示：“我们正处于十字路口。”“每个人都在试图弄清楚接下来会发生什么。其中一部分是观望。”</blockquote> Stocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.<blockquote>股市缺乏大量上涨动力。公司已经完成了第四季度的收益报告，对疫苗的预期不会好到哪里去，政府支撑经济的支出也将下降，至少按年计算是这样。拜登政府提出的2万亿美元基础设施支出将跨越八年，相当于每年2500亿美元。</blockquote> And while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.<blockquote>尽管经济消息可能会继续改善，但反弹可能已经见顶。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师迈克·威尔逊在一份报告中写道，经济可能会“个人收入、采购经理人指数和GDP的变化速度放缓”。</blockquote> Meanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&amp;P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.<blockquote>与此同时，股市已经反映了大部分积极消息，因为估值很高。标普500股票的平均市盈率是来年预期每股收益的22倍，而华尔街的一些策略师在对该指数做出预测时假设的市盈率是20倍。</blockquote> It would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.<blockquote>如果估值回到20倍也就不足为奇了，这意味着除非盈利增长超过预期，否则股市几乎不会上涨。尤其如此，因为安全政府债务的收益率正在上升，使得债券作为替代方案更具吸引力。</blockquote> The yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.<blockquote>10年期国债收益率已从年初的0.91%攀升至周三的1.72%。预计今年将接近2%。</blockquote> Earnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&amp;P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.<blockquote>花旗集团策略师的一项调查显示，预计到2022年，盈利将继续强劲增长，但估值下行压力使许多基金经理预计今年标准普尔指数走势基本持平。</blockquote> Still, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.<blockquote>尽管如此，今年晚些时候发布的收益报告可能会包含积极的惊喜。瑞士信贷最近一份报告的数据显示，收入增长往往是国内生产总值增长的两倍左右。市场普遍预期今年GDP将增长7%左右，因此收入将增长14%左右，而不是FactSet数据显示华尔街预测的9%。</blockquote> Higher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&amp;P 500—may have peaked.<blockquote>更高的收入增长意味着更高的盈利增长，以及股票的持续上涨。一种反驳观点是，所谓的盈利预测上调幅度——即评级对标普500各行业公司利润的影响程度——可能已经见顶。</blockquote> A chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师威尔逊发布的一份研究报告中的图表显示，广度最近达到了2018年和2010年的水平。在这两种情况下，广度都迅速急剧下降，更多公司的盈利预测被下调。投资者可能会惊喜地看到盈利预期从这里上升，但一些数据表明他们不应该指望这一点。</blockquote> Fortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.<blockquote>幸运的是，小盘价值股的近期盈利增长更强劲，估值也更可容忍。无论盈利预测是上升还是下降，它们的表现都可能继续优于大盘股。</blockquote> Now is the time to be picky.<blockquote>现在是挑剔的时候了。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-had-a-good-quarter-significant-gains-are-less-likely-now-51617219322?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-had-a-good-quarter-significant-gains-are-less-likely-now-51617219322?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127042118","content_text":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.\nThe S&P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.\nThe economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.\nThe economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.\nBecause they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.\nCyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.\nWhere the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”\nStocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.\nAnd while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.\nMeanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.\nIt would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.\nThe yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.\nEarnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.\nStill, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.\nHigher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&P 500—may have peaked.\nA chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.\nFortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.\nNow is the time to be picky.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":357265587,"gmtCreate":1617279690449,"gmtModify":1634521649922,"author":{"id":"3574848185025531","authorId":"3574848185025531","name":"The0","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3574848185025531","idStr":"3574848185025531"},"htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357265587","repostId":1127042118,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127042118","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617263854,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127042118?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-01 15:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127042118","media":"Barron's","summary":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors ","content":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.<blockquote>股市第一季度表现强劲，但上涨步伐可能会放缓。虽然投资者不一定应该纾困，但他们应该变得更加有选择性。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.<blockquote>今年前三个月，标普500上涨5.8%。有利因素很多：Covid-19疫苗接种速度加快，而数万亿美元的政府支出支撑了需求。</blockquote> The economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.<blockquote>经济正在从2020年封锁造成的损害中迅速反弹。ADP周三公布的数据显示，美国3月份私营部门新增就业岗位517,000个，为9月份以来的最高总数。1月份零售额比12月份高出5%。</blockquote> The economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.<blockquote>经济反弹解释了罗素2000指数今年年初上涨13%的原因。小市值公司（例如罗素指数中的公司）的盈利波动往往比大公司大得多。</blockquote> Because they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.<blockquote>由于他们规模较小，他们发现在困难时期更难削减成本，因此当经济恶化时，他们的收入下降得更严重。另一方面，当情况改善时，利润会增加。此外，他们获得资本的机会相对有限，这使得他们更难度过经济低迷时期，因此他们的股票可能会随着经济变化而暴跌和飙升。</blockquote> Cyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.<blockquote>出于类似的原因，从银行到石油生产商再到非必需消费品销售商，无论大小周期性股票今年的表现都优于大盘。与公用事业或消费必需品公司相比，他们看到了经济回暖时的巨大好处。</blockquote> Where the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”<blockquote>现在市场的走向还不太清楚。德美利证券首席市场策略师JJ Kinahan表示：“我们正处于十字路口。”“每个人都在试图弄清楚接下来会发生什么。其中一部分是观望。”</blockquote> Stocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.<blockquote>股市缺乏大量上涨动力。公司已经完成了第四季度的收益报告，对疫苗的预期不会好到哪里去，政府支撑经济的支出也将下降，至少按年计算是这样。拜登政府提出的2万亿美元基础设施支出将跨越八年，相当于每年2500亿美元。</blockquote> And while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.<blockquote>尽管经济消息可能会继续改善，但反弹可能已经见顶。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师迈克·威尔逊在一份报告中写道，经济可能会“个人收入、采购经理人指数和GDP的变化速度放缓”。</blockquote> Meanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&amp;P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.<blockquote>与此同时，股市已经反映了大部分积极消息，因为估值很高。标普500股票的平均市盈率是来年预期每股收益的22倍，而华尔街的一些策略师在对该指数做出预测时假设的市盈率是20倍。</blockquote> It would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.<blockquote>如果估值回到20倍也就不足为奇了，这意味着除非盈利增长超过预期，否则股市几乎不会上涨。尤其如此，因为安全政府债务的收益率正在上升，使得债券作为替代方案更具吸引力。</blockquote> The yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.<blockquote>10年期国债收益率已从年初的0.91%攀升至周三的1.72%。预计今年将接近2%。</blockquote> Earnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&amp;P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.<blockquote>花旗集团策略师的一项调查显示，预计到2022年，盈利将继续强劲增长，但估值下行压力使许多基金经理预计今年标准普尔指数走势基本持平。</blockquote> Still, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.<blockquote>尽管如此，今年晚些时候发布的收益报告可能会包含积极的惊喜。瑞士信贷最近一份报告的数据显示，收入增长往往是国内生产总值增长的两倍左右。市场普遍预期今年GDP将增长7%左右，因此收入将增长14%左右，而不是FactSet数据显示华尔街预测的9%。</blockquote> Higher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&amp;P 500—may have peaked.<blockquote>更高的收入增长意味着更高的盈利增长，以及股票的持续上涨。一种反驳观点是，所谓的盈利预测上调幅度——即评级对标普500各行业公司利润的影响程度——可能已经见顶。</blockquote> A chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师威尔逊发布的一份研究报告中的图表显示，广度最近达到了2018年和2010年的水平。在这两种情况下，广度都迅速急剧下降，更多公司的盈利预测被下调。投资者可能会惊喜地看到盈利预期从这里上升，但一些数据表明他们不应该指望这一点。</blockquote> Fortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.<blockquote>幸运的是，小盘价值股的近期盈利增长更强劲，估值也更可容忍。无论盈利预测是上升还是下降，它们的表现都可能继续优于大盘股。</blockquote> Now is the time to be picky.<blockquote>现在是挑剔的时候了。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-04-01 15:57\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nStocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.<blockquote>股市第一季度表现强劲，但上涨步伐可能会放缓。虽然投资者不一定应该纾困，但他们应该变得更加有选择性。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.<blockquote>今年前三个月，标普500上涨5.8%。有利因素很多：Covid-19疫苗接种速度加快，而数万亿美元的政府支出支撑了需求。</blockquote> The economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.<blockquote>经济正在从2020年封锁造成的损害中迅速反弹。ADP周三公布的数据显示，美国3月份私营部门新增就业岗位517,000个，为9月份以来的最高总数。1月份零售额比12月份高出5%。</blockquote> The economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.<blockquote>经济反弹解释了罗素2000指数今年年初上涨13%的原因。小市值公司（例如罗素指数中的公司）的盈利波动往往比大公司大得多。</blockquote> Because they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.<blockquote>由于他们规模较小，他们发现在困难时期更难削减成本，因此当经济恶化时，他们的收入下降得更严重。另一方面，当情况改善时，利润会增加。此外，他们获得资本的机会相对有限，这使得他们更难度过经济低迷时期，因此他们的股票可能会随着经济变化而暴跌和飙升。</blockquote> Cyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.<blockquote>出于类似的原因，从银行到石油生产商再到非必需消费品销售商，无论大小周期性股票今年的表现都优于大盘。与公用事业或消费必需品公司相比，他们看到了经济回暖时的巨大好处。</blockquote> Where the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”<blockquote>现在市场的走向还不太清楚。德美利证券首席市场策略师JJ Kinahan表示：“我们正处于十字路口。”“每个人都在试图弄清楚接下来会发生什么。其中一部分是观望。”</blockquote> Stocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.<blockquote>股市缺乏大量上涨动力。公司已经完成了第四季度的收益报告，对疫苗的预期不会好到哪里去，政府支撑经济的支出也将下降，至少按年计算是这样。拜登政府提出的2万亿美元基础设施支出将跨越八年，相当于每年2500亿美元。</blockquote> And while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.<blockquote>尽管经济消息可能会继续改善，但反弹可能已经见顶。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师迈克·威尔逊在一份报告中写道，经济可能会“个人收入、采购经理人指数和GDP的变化速度放缓”。</blockquote> Meanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&amp;P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.<blockquote>与此同时，股市已经反映了大部分积极消息，因为估值很高。标普500股票的平均市盈率是来年预期每股收益的22倍，而华尔街的一些策略师在对该指数做出预测时假设的市盈率是20倍。</blockquote> It would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.<blockquote>如果估值回到20倍也就不足为奇了，这意味着除非盈利增长超过预期，否则股市几乎不会上涨。尤其如此，因为安全政府债务的收益率正在上升，使得债券作为替代方案更具吸引力。</blockquote> The yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.<blockquote>10年期国债收益率已从年初的0.91%攀升至周三的1.72%。预计今年将接近2%。</blockquote> Earnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&amp;P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.<blockquote>花旗集团策略师的一项调查显示，预计到2022年，盈利将继续强劲增长，但估值下行压力使许多基金经理预计今年标准普尔指数走势基本持平。</blockquote> Still, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.<blockquote>尽管如此，今年晚些时候发布的收益报告可能会包含积极的惊喜。瑞士信贷最近一份报告的数据显示，收入增长往往是国内生产总值增长的两倍左右。市场普遍预期今年GDP将增长7%左右，因此收入将增长14%左右，而不是FactSet数据显示华尔街预测的9%。</blockquote> Higher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&amp;P 500—may have peaked.<blockquote>更高的收入增长意味着更高的盈利增长，以及股票的持续上涨。一种反驳观点是，所谓的盈利预测上调幅度——即评级对标普500各行业公司利润的影响程度——可能已经见顶。</blockquote> A chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师威尔逊发布的一份研究报告中的图表显示，广度最近达到了2018年和2010年的水平。在这两种情况下，广度都迅速急剧下降，更多公司的盈利预测被下调。投资者可能会惊喜地看到盈利预期从这里上升，但一些数据表明他们不应该指望这一点。</blockquote> Fortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.<blockquote>幸运的是，小盘价值股的近期盈利增长更强劲，估值也更可容忍。无论盈利预测是上升还是下降，它们的表现都可能继续优于大盘股。</blockquote> Now is the time to be picky.<blockquote>现在是挑剔的时候了。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-had-a-good-quarter-significant-gains-are-less-likely-now-51617219322?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-had-a-good-quarter-significant-gains-are-less-likely-now-51617219322?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127042118","content_text":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.\nThe S&P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.\nThe economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.\nThe economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.\nBecause they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.\nCyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.\nWhere the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”\nStocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.\nAnd while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.\nMeanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.\nIt would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.\nThe yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.\nEarnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.\nStill, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.\nHigher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&P 500—may have peaked.\nA chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.\nFortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.\nNow is the time to be picky.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":357284206,"gmtCreate":1617278729105,"gmtModify":1634521655080,"author":{"id":"3575765870316438","authorId":"3575765870316438","name":"Derrickhodl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e1a91ff1e2c7029f0ea5d952a46bebb","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3575765870316438","idStr":"3575765870316438"},"htmlText":"Not yet. HODL","listText":"Not yet. HODL","text":"Not yet. HODL","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357284206","repostId":1127042118,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127042118","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617263854,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127042118?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-01 15:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127042118","media":"Barron's","summary":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors ","content":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.<blockquote>股市第一季度表现强劲，但上涨步伐可能会放缓。虽然投资者不一定应该纾困，但他们应该变得更加有选择性。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.<blockquote>今年前三个月，标普500上涨5.8%。有利因素很多：Covid-19疫苗接种速度加快，而数万亿美元的政府支出支撑了需求。</blockquote> The economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.<blockquote>经济正在从2020年封锁造成的损害中迅速反弹。ADP周三公布的数据显示，美国3月份私营部门新增就业岗位517,000个，为9月份以来的最高总数。1月份零售额比12月份高出5%。</blockquote> The economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.<blockquote>经济反弹解释了罗素2000指数今年年初上涨13%的原因。小市值公司（例如罗素指数中的公司）的盈利波动往往比大公司大得多。</blockquote> Because they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.<blockquote>由于他们规模较小，他们发现在困难时期更难削减成本，因此当经济恶化时，他们的收入下降得更严重。另一方面，当情况改善时，利润会增加。此外，他们获得资本的机会相对有限，这使得他们更难度过经济低迷时期，因此他们的股票可能会随着经济变化而暴跌和飙升。</blockquote> Cyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.<blockquote>出于类似的原因，从银行到石油生产商再到非必需消费品销售商，无论大小周期性股票今年的表现都优于大盘。与公用事业或消费必需品公司相比，他们看到了经济回暖时的巨大好处。</blockquote> Where the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”<blockquote>现在市场的走向还不太清楚。德美利证券首席市场策略师JJ Kinahan表示：“我们正处于十字路口。”“每个人都在试图弄清楚接下来会发生什么。其中一部分是观望。”</blockquote> Stocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.<blockquote>股市缺乏大量上涨动力。公司已经完成了第四季度的收益报告，对疫苗的预期不会好到哪里去，政府支撑经济的支出也将下降，至少按年计算是这样。拜登政府提出的2万亿美元基础设施支出将跨越八年，相当于每年2500亿美元。</blockquote> And while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.<blockquote>尽管经济消息可能会继续改善，但反弹可能已经见顶。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师迈克·威尔逊在一份报告中写道，经济可能会“个人收入、采购经理人指数和GDP的变化速度放缓”。</blockquote> Meanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&amp;P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.<blockquote>与此同时，股市已经反映了大部分积极消息，因为估值很高。标普500股票的平均市盈率是来年预期每股收益的22倍，而华尔街的一些策略师在对该指数做出预测时假设的市盈率是20倍。</blockquote> It would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.<blockquote>如果估值回到20倍也就不足为奇了，这意味着除非盈利增长超过预期，否则股市几乎不会上涨。尤其如此，因为安全政府债务的收益率正在上升，使得债券作为替代方案更具吸引力。</blockquote> The yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.<blockquote>10年期国债收益率已从年初的0.91%攀升至周三的1.72%。预计今年将接近2%。</blockquote> Earnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&amp;P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.<blockquote>花旗集团策略师的一项调查显示，预计到2022年，盈利将继续强劲增长，但估值下行压力使许多基金经理预计今年标准普尔指数走势基本持平。</blockquote> Still, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.<blockquote>尽管如此，今年晚些时候发布的收益报告可能会包含积极的惊喜。瑞士信贷最近一份报告的数据显示，收入增长往往是国内生产总值增长的两倍左右。市场普遍预期今年GDP将增长7%左右，因此收入将增长14%左右，而不是FactSet数据显示华尔街预测的9%。</blockquote> Higher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&amp;P 500—may have peaked.<blockquote>更高的收入增长意味着更高的盈利增长，以及股票的持续上涨。一种反驳观点是，所谓的盈利预测上调幅度——即评级对标普500各行业公司利润的影响程度——可能已经见顶。</blockquote> A chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师威尔逊发布的一份研究报告中的图表显示，广度最近达到了2018年和2010年的水平。在这两种情况下，广度都迅速急剧下降，更多公司的盈利预测被下调。投资者可能会惊喜地看到盈利预期从这里上升，但一些数据表明他们不应该指望这一点。</blockquote> Fortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.<blockquote>幸运的是，小盘价值股的近期盈利增长更强劲，估值也更可容忍。无论盈利预测是上升还是下降，它们的表现都可能继续优于大盘股。</blockquote> Now is the time to be picky.<blockquote>现在是挑剔的时候了。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-04-01 15:57\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nStocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.<blockquote>股市第一季度表现强劲，但上涨步伐可能会放缓。虽然投资者不一定应该纾困，但他们应该变得更加有选择性。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.<blockquote>今年前三个月，标普500上涨5.8%。有利因素很多：Covid-19疫苗接种速度加快，而数万亿美元的政府支出支撑了需求。</blockquote> The economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.<blockquote>经济正在从2020年封锁造成的损害中迅速反弹。ADP周三公布的数据显示，美国3月份私营部门新增就业岗位517,000个，为9月份以来的最高总数。1月份零售额比12月份高出5%。</blockquote> The economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.<blockquote>经济反弹解释了罗素2000指数今年年初上涨13%的原因。小市值公司（例如罗素指数中的公司）的盈利波动往往比大公司大得多。</blockquote> Because they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.<blockquote>由于他们规模较小，他们发现在困难时期更难削减成本，因此当经济恶化时，他们的收入下降得更严重。另一方面，当情况改善时，利润会增加。此外，他们获得资本的机会相对有限，这使得他们更难度过经济低迷时期，因此他们的股票可能会随着经济变化而暴跌和飙升。</blockquote> Cyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.<blockquote>出于类似的原因，从银行到石油生产商再到非必需消费品销售商，无论大小周期性股票今年的表现都优于大盘。与公用事业或消费必需品公司相比，他们看到了经济回暖时的巨大好处。</blockquote> Where the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”<blockquote>现在市场的走向还不太清楚。德美利证券首席市场策略师JJ Kinahan表示：“我们正处于十字路口。”“每个人都在试图弄清楚接下来会发生什么。其中一部分是观望。”</blockquote> Stocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.<blockquote>股市缺乏大量上涨动力。公司已经完成了第四季度的收益报告，对疫苗的预期不会好到哪里去，政府支撑经济的支出也将下降，至少按年计算是这样。拜登政府提出的2万亿美元基础设施支出将跨越八年，相当于每年2500亿美元。</blockquote> And while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.<blockquote>尽管经济消息可能会继续改善，但反弹可能已经见顶。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师迈克·威尔逊在一份报告中写道，经济可能会“个人收入、采购经理人指数和GDP的变化速度放缓”。</blockquote> Meanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&amp;P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.<blockquote>与此同时，股市已经反映了大部分积极消息，因为估值很高。标普500股票的平均市盈率是来年预期每股收益的22倍，而华尔街的一些策略师在对该指数做出预测时假设的市盈率是20倍。</blockquote> It would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.<blockquote>如果估值回到20倍也就不足为奇了，这意味着除非盈利增长超过预期，否则股市几乎不会上涨。尤其如此，因为安全政府债务的收益率正在上升，使得债券作为替代方案更具吸引力。</blockquote> The yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.<blockquote>10年期国债收益率已从年初的0.91%攀升至周三的1.72%。预计今年将接近2%。</blockquote> Earnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&amp;P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.<blockquote>花旗集团策略师的一项调查显示，预计到2022年，盈利将继续强劲增长，但估值下行压力使许多基金经理预计今年标准普尔指数走势基本持平。</blockquote> Still, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.<blockquote>尽管如此，今年晚些时候发布的收益报告可能会包含积极的惊喜。瑞士信贷最近一份报告的数据显示，收入增长往往是国内生产总值增长的两倍左右。市场普遍预期今年GDP将增长7%左右，因此收入将增长14%左右，而不是FactSet数据显示华尔街预测的9%。</blockquote> Higher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&amp;P 500—may have peaked.<blockquote>更高的收入增长意味着更高的盈利增长，以及股票的持续上涨。一种反驳观点是，所谓的盈利预测上调幅度——即评级对标普500各行业公司利润的影响程度——可能已经见顶。</blockquote> A chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师威尔逊发布的一份研究报告中的图表显示，广度最近达到了2018年和2010年的水平。在这两种情况下，广度都迅速急剧下降，更多公司的盈利预测被下调。投资者可能会惊喜地看到盈利预期从这里上升，但一些数据表明他们不应该指望这一点。</blockquote> Fortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.<blockquote>幸运的是，小盘价值股的近期盈利增长更强劲，估值也更可容忍。无论盈利预测是上升还是下降，它们的表现都可能继续优于大盘股。</blockquote> Now is the time to be picky.<blockquote>现在是挑剔的时候了。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-had-a-good-quarter-significant-gains-are-less-likely-now-51617219322?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-had-a-good-quarter-significant-gains-are-less-likely-now-51617219322?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127042118","content_text":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.\nThe S&P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.\nThe economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.\nThe economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.\nBecause they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.\nCyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.\nWhere the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”\nStocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.\nAnd while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.\nMeanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.\nIt would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.\nThe yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.\nEarnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.\nStill, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.\nHigher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&P 500—may have peaked.\nA chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.\nFortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.\nNow is the time to be picky.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3943308,"gmtCreate":1617321056350,"gmtModify":1635745270632,"authorId":3574412358832380,"author":{"id":3574412358832380,"idStr":"3574412358832380","authorId":3574412358832380,"name":"Nsim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/829143ac1cbbb83f56252c550074d418","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":357284206,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":" Nice","text":" Nice","html":" Nice"},{"id":3945232,"gmtCreate":1617335618443,"gmtModify":1635745119966,"authorId":3575698023594890,"author":{"id":3575698023594890,"idStr":"3575698023594890","authorId":3575698023594890,"name":"huatking","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a67911ff5e6d0a22862ddbd73954501","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":357284206,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"sweet","text":"sweet","html":"sweet"},{"id":3948868,"gmtCreate":1617408328603,"gmtModify":1635744870020,"authorId":3565395093400157,"author":{"id":3565395093400157,"idStr":"3565395093400157","authorId":3565395093400157,"name":"SGoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e38bfdd3bb9c6884571f8ef468bc10d4","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":357284206,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Nice","text":"Nice","html":"Nice"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":357212836,"gmtCreate":1617277006825,"gmtModify":1634521661651,"author":{"id":"3566244878628904","authorId":"3566244878628904","name":"Wallstrtbets","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c38bbee1121ea92508ad9508fa15c5e","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3566244878628904","idStr":"3566244878628904"},"htmlText":"Bravo.","listText":"Bravo.","text":"Bravo.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357212836","repostId":1127042118,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127042118","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617263854,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127042118?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-01 15:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127042118","media":"Barron's","summary":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors ","content":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.<blockquote>股市第一季度表现强劲，但上涨步伐可能会放缓。虽然投资者不一定应该纾困，但他们应该变得更加有选择性。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.<blockquote>今年前三个月，标普500上涨5.8%。有利因素很多：Covid-19疫苗接种速度加快，而数万亿美元的政府支出支撑了需求。</blockquote> The economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.<blockquote>经济正在从2020年封锁造成的损害中迅速反弹。ADP周三公布的数据显示，美国3月份私营部门新增就业岗位517,000个，为9月份以来的最高总数。1月份零售额比12月份高出5%。</blockquote> The economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.<blockquote>经济反弹解释了罗素2000指数今年年初上涨13%的原因。小市值公司（例如罗素指数中的公司）的盈利波动往往比大公司大得多。</blockquote> Because they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.<blockquote>由于他们规模较小，他们发现在困难时期更难削减成本，因此当经济恶化时，他们的收入下降得更严重。另一方面，当情况改善时，利润会增加。此外，他们获得资本的机会相对有限，这使得他们更难度过经济低迷时期，因此他们的股票可能会随着经济变化而暴跌和飙升。</blockquote> Cyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.<blockquote>出于类似的原因，从银行到石油生产商再到非必需消费品销售商，无论大小周期性股票今年的表现都优于大盘。与公用事业或消费必需品公司相比，他们看到了经济回暖时的巨大好处。</blockquote> Where the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”<blockquote>现在市场的走向还不太清楚。德美利证券首席市场策略师JJ Kinahan表示：“我们正处于十字路口。”“每个人都在试图弄清楚接下来会发生什么。其中一部分是观望。”</blockquote> Stocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.<blockquote>股市缺乏大量上涨动力。公司已经完成了第四季度的收益报告，对疫苗的预期不会好到哪里去，政府支撑经济的支出也将下降，至少按年计算是这样。拜登政府提出的2万亿美元基础设施支出将跨越八年，相当于每年2500亿美元。</blockquote> And while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.<blockquote>尽管经济消息可能会继续改善，但反弹可能已经见顶。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师迈克·威尔逊在一份报告中写道，经济可能会“个人收入、采购经理人指数和GDP的变化速度放缓”。</blockquote> Meanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&amp;P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.<blockquote>与此同时，股市已经反映了大部分积极消息，因为估值很高。标普500股票的平均市盈率是来年预期每股收益的22倍，而华尔街的一些策略师在对该指数做出预测时假设的市盈率是20倍。</blockquote> It would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.<blockquote>如果估值回到20倍也就不足为奇了，这意味着除非盈利增长超过预期，否则股市几乎不会上涨。尤其如此，因为安全政府债务的收益率正在上升，使得债券作为替代方案更具吸引力。</blockquote> The yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.<blockquote>10年期国债收益率已从年初的0.91%攀升至周三的1.72%。预计今年将接近2%。</blockquote> Earnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&amp;P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.<blockquote>花旗集团策略师的一项调查显示，预计到2022年，盈利将继续强劲增长，但估值下行压力使许多基金经理预计今年标准普尔指数走势基本持平。</blockquote> Still, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.<blockquote>尽管如此，今年晚些时候发布的收益报告可能会包含积极的惊喜。瑞士信贷最近一份报告的数据显示，收入增长往往是国内生产总值增长的两倍左右。市场普遍预期今年GDP将增长7%左右，因此收入将增长14%左右，而不是FactSet数据显示华尔街预测的9%。</blockquote> Higher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&amp;P 500—may have peaked.<blockquote>更高的收入增长意味着更高的盈利增长，以及股票的持续上涨。一种反驳观点是，所谓的盈利预测上调幅度——即评级对标普500各行业公司利润的影响程度——可能已经见顶。</blockquote> A chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师威尔逊发布的一份研究报告中的图表显示，广度最近达到了2018年和2010年的水平。在这两种情况下，广度都迅速急剧下降，更多公司的盈利预测被下调。投资者可能会惊喜地看到盈利预期从这里上升，但一些数据表明他们不应该指望这一点。</blockquote> Fortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.<blockquote>幸运的是，小盘价值股的近期盈利增长更强劲，估值也更可容忍。无论盈利预测是上升还是下降，它们的表现都可能继续优于大盘股。</blockquote> Now is the time to be picky.<blockquote>现在是挑剔的时候了。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-04-01 15:57\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nStocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.<blockquote>股市第一季度表现强劲，但上涨步伐可能会放缓。虽然投资者不一定应该纾困，但他们应该变得更加有选择性。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.<blockquote>今年前三个月，标普500上涨5.8%。有利因素很多：Covid-19疫苗接种速度加快，而数万亿美元的政府支出支撑了需求。</blockquote> The economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.<blockquote>经济正在从2020年封锁造成的损害中迅速反弹。ADP周三公布的数据显示，美国3月份私营部门新增就业岗位517,000个，为9月份以来的最高总数。1月份零售额比12月份高出5%。</blockquote> The economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.<blockquote>经济反弹解释了罗素2000指数今年年初上涨13%的原因。小市值公司（例如罗素指数中的公司）的盈利波动往往比大公司大得多。</blockquote> Because they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.<blockquote>由于他们规模较小，他们发现在困难时期更难削减成本，因此当经济恶化时，他们的收入下降得更严重。另一方面，当情况改善时，利润会增加。此外，他们获得资本的机会相对有限，这使得他们更难度过经济低迷时期，因此他们的股票可能会随着经济变化而暴跌和飙升。</blockquote> Cyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.<blockquote>出于类似的原因，从银行到石油生产商再到非必需消费品销售商，无论大小周期性股票今年的表现都优于大盘。与公用事业或消费必需品公司相比，他们看到了经济回暖时的巨大好处。</blockquote> Where the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”<blockquote>现在市场的走向还不太清楚。德美利证券首席市场策略师JJ Kinahan表示：“我们正处于十字路口。”“每个人都在试图弄清楚接下来会发生什么。其中一部分是观望。”</blockquote> Stocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.<blockquote>股市缺乏大量上涨动力。公司已经完成了第四季度的收益报告，对疫苗的预期不会好到哪里去，政府支撑经济的支出也将下降，至少按年计算是这样。拜登政府提出的2万亿美元基础设施支出将跨越八年，相当于每年2500亿美元。</blockquote> And while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.<blockquote>尽管经济消息可能会继续改善，但反弹可能已经见顶。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师迈克·威尔逊在一份报告中写道，经济可能会“个人收入、采购经理人指数和GDP的变化速度放缓”。</blockquote> Meanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&amp;P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.<blockquote>与此同时，股市已经反映了大部分积极消息，因为估值很高。标普500股票的平均市盈率是来年预期每股收益的22倍，而华尔街的一些策略师在对该指数做出预测时假设的市盈率是20倍。</blockquote> It would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.<blockquote>如果估值回到20倍也就不足为奇了，这意味着除非盈利增长超过预期，否则股市几乎不会上涨。尤其如此，因为安全政府债务的收益率正在上升，使得债券作为替代方案更具吸引力。</blockquote> The yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.<blockquote>10年期国债收益率已从年初的0.91%攀升至周三的1.72%。预计今年将接近2%。</blockquote> Earnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&amp;P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.<blockquote>花旗集团策略师的一项调查显示，预计到2022年，盈利将继续强劲增长，但估值下行压力使许多基金经理预计今年标准普尔指数走势基本持平。</blockquote> Still, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.<blockquote>尽管如此，今年晚些时候发布的收益报告可能会包含积极的惊喜。瑞士信贷最近一份报告的数据显示，收入增长往往是国内生产总值增长的两倍左右。市场普遍预期今年GDP将增长7%左右，因此收入将增长14%左右，而不是FactSet数据显示华尔街预测的9%。</blockquote> Higher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&amp;P 500—may have peaked.<blockquote>更高的收入增长意味着更高的盈利增长，以及股票的持续上涨。一种反驳观点是，所谓的盈利预测上调幅度——即评级对标普500各行业公司利润的影响程度——可能已经见顶。</blockquote> A chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师威尔逊发布的一份研究报告中的图表显示，广度最近达到了2018年和2010年的水平。在这两种情况下，广度都迅速急剧下降，更多公司的盈利预测被下调。投资者可能会惊喜地看到盈利预期从这里上升，但一些数据表明他们不应该指望这一点。</blockquote> Fortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.<blockquote>幸运的是，小盘价值股的近期盈利增长更强劲，估值也更可容忍。无论盈利预测是上升还是下降，它们的表现都可能继续优于大盘股。</blockquote> Now is the time to be picky.<blockquote>现在是挑剔的时候了。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-had-a-good-quarter-significant-gains-are-less-likely-now-51617219322?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-had-a-good-quarter-significant-gains-are-less-likely-now-51617219322?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127042118","content_text":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.\nThe S&P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.\nThe economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.\nThe economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.\nBecause they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.\nCyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.\nWhere the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”\nStocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.\nAnd while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.\nMeanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.\nIt would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.\nThe yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.\nEarnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.\nStill, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.\nHigher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&P 500—may have peaked.\nA chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.\nFortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.\nNow is the time to be picky.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":357210617,"gmtCreate":1617276469739,"gmtModify":1634521664231,"author":{"id":"3569805243820041","authorId":"3569805243820041","name":"mcwood","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/899c12565f32e74966bd8f5ceac09f7c","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3569805243820041","idStr":"3569805243820041"},"htmlText":"[得意]&nbsp;","listText":"[得意]&nbsp;","text":"[得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357210617","repostId":1127042118,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127042118","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617263854,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127042118?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-01 15:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127042118","media":"Barron's","summary":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors ","content":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.<blockquote>股市第一季度表现强劲，但上涨步伐可能会放缓。虽然投资者不一定应该纾困，但他们应该变得更加有选择性。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.<blockquote>今年前三个月，标普500上涨5.8%。有利因素很多：Covid-19疫苗接种速度加快，而数万亿美元的政府支出支撑了需求。</blockquote> The economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.<blockquote>经济正在从2020年封锁造成的损害中迅速反弹。ADP周三公布的数据显示，美国3月份私营部门新增就业岗位517,000个，为9月份以来的最高总数。1月份零售额比12月份高出5%。</blockquote> The economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.<blockquote>经济反弹解释了罗素2000指数今年年初上涨13%的原因。小市值公司（例如罗素指数中的公司）的盈利波动往往比大公司大得多。</blockquote> Because they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.<blockquote>由于他们规模较小，他们发现在困难时期更难削减成本，因此当经济恶化时，他们的收入下降得更严重。另一方面，当情况改善时，利润会增加。此外，他们获得资本的机会相对有限，这使得他们更难度过经济低迷时期，因此他们的股票可能会随着经济变化而暴跌和飙升。</blockquote> Cyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.<blockquote>出于类似的原因，从银行到石油生产商再到非必需消费品销售商，无论大小周期性股票今年的表现都优于大盘。与公用事业或消费必需品公司相比，他们看到了经济回暖时的巨大好处。</blockquote> Where the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”<blockquote>现在市场的走向还不太清楚。德美利证券首席市场策略师JJ Kinahan表示：“我们正处于十字路口。”“每个人都在试图弄清楚接下来会发生什么。其中一部分是观望。”</blockquote> Stocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.<blockquote>股市缺乏大量上涨动力。公司已经完成了第四季度的收益报告，对疫苗的预期不会好到哪里去，政府支撑经济的支出也将下降，至少按年计算是这样。拜登政府提出的2万亿美元基础设施支出将跨越八年，相当于每年2500亿美元。</blockquote> And while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.<blockquote>尽管经济消息可能会继续改善，但反弹可能已经见顶。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师迈克·威尔逊在一份报告中写道，经济可能会“个人收入、采购经理人指数和GDP的变化速度放缓”。</blockquote> Meanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&amp;P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.<blockquote>与此同时，股市已经反映了大部分积极消息，因为估值很高。标普500股票的平均市盈率是来年预期每股收益的22倍，而华尔街的一些策略师在对该指数做出预测时假设的市盈率是20倍。</blockquote> It would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.<blockquote>如果估值回到20倍也就不足为奇了，这意味着除非盈利增长超过预期，否则股市几乎不会上涨。尤其如此，因为安全政府债务的收益率正在上升，使得债券作为替代方案更具吸引力。</blockquote> The yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.<blockquote>10年期国债收益率已从年初的0.91%攀升至周三的1.72%。预计今年将接近2%。</blockquote> Earnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&amp;P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.<blockquote>花旗集团策略师的一项调查显示，预计到2022年，盈利将继续强劲增长，但估值下行压力使许多基金经理预计今年标准普尔指数走势基本持平。</blockquote> Still, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.<blockquote>尽管如此，今年晚些时候发布的收益报告可能会包含积极的惊喜。瑞士信贷最近一份报告的数据显示，收入增长往往是国内生产总值增长的两倍左右。市场普遍预期今年GDP将增长7%左右，因此收入将增长14%左右，而不是FactSet数据显示华尔街预测的9%。</blockquote> Higher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&amp;P 500—may have peaked.<blockquote>更高的收入增长意味着更高的盈利增长，以及股票的持续上涨。一种反驳观点是，所谓的盈利预测上调幅度——即评级对标普500各行业公司利润的影响程度——可能已经见顶。</blockquote> A chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师威尔逊发布的一份研究报告中的图表显示，广度最近达到了2018年和2010年的水平。在这两种情况下，广度都迅速急剧下降，更多公司的盈利预测被下调。投资者可能会惊喜地看到盈利预期从这里上升，但一些数据表明他们不应该指望这一点。</blockquote> Fortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.<blockquote>幸运的是，小盘价值股的近期盈利增长更强劲，估值也更可容忍。无论盈利预测是上升还是下降，它们的表现都可能继续优于大盘股。</blockquote> Now is the time to be picky.<blockquote>现在是挑剔的时候了。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-04-01 15:57\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nStocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.<blockquote>股市第一季度表现强劲，但上涨步伐可能会放缓。虽然投资者不一定应该纾困，但他们应该变得更加有选择性。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.<blockquote>今年前三个月，标普500上涨5.8%。有利因素很多：Covid-19疫苗接种速度加快，而数万亿美元的政府支出支撑了需求。</blockquote> The economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.<blockquote>经济正在从2020年封锁造成的损害中迅速反弹。ADP周三公布的数据显示，美国3月份私营部门新增就业岗位517,000个，为9月份以来的最高总数。1月份零售额比12月份高出5%。</blockquote> The economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.<blockquote>经济反弹解释了罗素2000指数今年年初上涨13%的原因。小市值公司（例如罗素指数中的公司）的盈利波动往往比大公司大得多。</blockquote> Because they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.<blockquote>由于他们规模较小，他们发现在困难时期更难削减成本，因此当经济恶化时，他们的收入下降得更严重。另一方面，当情况改善时，利润会增加。此外，他们获得资本的机会相对有限，这使得他们更难度过经济低迷时期，因此他们的股票可能会随着经济变化而暴跌和飙升。</blockquote> Cyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.<blockquote>出于类似的原因，从银行到石油生产商再到非必需消费品销售商，无论大小周期性股票今年的表现都优于大盘。与公用事业或消费必需品公司相比，他们看到了经济回暖时的巨大好处。</blockquote> Where the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”<blockquote>现在市场的走向还不太清楚。德美利证券首席市场策略师JJ Kinahan表示：“我们正处于十字路口。”“每个人都在试图弄清楚接下来会发生什么。其中一部分是观望。”</blockquote> Stocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.<blockquote>股市缺乏大量上涨动力。公司已经完成了第四季度的收益报告，对疫苗的预期不会好到哪里去，政府支撑经济的支出也将下降，至少按年计算是这样。拜登政府提出的2万亿美元基础设施支出将跨越八年，相当于每年2500亿美元。</blockquote> And while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.<blockquote>尽管经济消息可能会继续改善，但反弹可能已经见顶。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师迈克·威尔逊在一份报告中写道，经济可能会“个人收入、采购经理人指数和GDP的变化速度放缓”。</blockquote> Meanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&amp;P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.<blockquote>与此同时，股市已经反映了大部分积极消息，因为估值很高。标普500股票的平均市盈率是来年预期每股收益的22倍，而华尔街的一些策略师在对该指数做出预测时假设的市盈率是20倍。</blockquote> It would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.<blockquote>如果估值回到20倍也就不足为奇了，这意味着除非盈利增长超过预期，否则股市几乎不会上涨。尤其如此，因为安全政府债务的收益率正在上升，使得债券作为替代方案更具吸引力。</blockquote> The yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.<blockquote>10年期国债收益率已从年初的0.91%攀升至周三的1.72%。预计今年将接近2%。</blockquote> Earnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&amp;P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.<blockquote>花旗集团策略师的一项调查显示，预计到2022年，盈利将继续强劲增长，但估值下行压力使许多基金经理预计今年标准普尔指数走势基本持平。</blockquote> Still, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.<blockquote>尽管如此，今年晚些时候发布的收益报告可能会包含积极的惊喜。瑞士信贷最近一份报告的数据显示，收入增长往往是国内生产总值增长的两倍左右。市场普遍预期今年GDP将增长7%左右，因此收入将增长14%左右，而不是FactSet数据显示华尔街预测的9%。</blockquote> Higher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&amp;P 500—may have peaked.<blockquote>更高的收入增长意味着更高的盈利增长，以及股票的持续上涨。一种反驳观点是，所谓的盈利预测上调幅度——即评级对标普500各行业公司利润的影响程度——可能已经见顶。</blockquote> A chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师威尔逊发布的一份研究报告中的图表显示，广度最近达到了2018年和2010年的水平。在这两种情况下，广度都迅速急剧下降，更多公司的盈利预测被下调。投资者可能会惊喜地看到盈利预期从这里上升，但一些数据表明他们不应该指望这一点。</blockquote> Fortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.<blockquote>幸运的是，小盘价值股的近期盈利增长更强劲，估值也更可容忍。无论盈利预测是上升还是下降，它们的表现都可能继续优于大盘股。</blockquote> Now is the time to be picky.<blockquote>现在是挑剔的时候了。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-had-a-good-quarter-significant-gains-are-less-likely-now-51617219322?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-had-a-good-quarter-significant-gains-are-less-likely-now-51617219322?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127042118","content_text":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.\nThe S&P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.\nThe economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.\nThe economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.\nBecause they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.\nCyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.\nWhere the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”\nStocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.\nAnd while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.\nMeanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.\nIt would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.\nThe yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.\nEarnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.\nStill, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.\nHigher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&P 500—may have peaked.\nA chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.\nFortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.\nNow is the time to be picky.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":357236599,"gmtCreate":1617275921411,"gmtModify":1617276103786,"author":{"id":"3577917165320806","authorId":"3577917165320806","name":"KinKat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05a5d7e664c9e14d1097e19f1846ce94","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3577917165320806","idStr":"3577917165320806"},"htmlText":"So.... Starting looking for stocks with PE &lt;20...&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"So.... Starting looking for stocks with PE &lt;20...&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"So.... Starting looking for stocks with PE <20... [惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357236599","repostId":1127042118,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127042118","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617263854,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127042118?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-01 15:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127042118","media":"Barron's","summary":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors ","content":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.<blockquote>股市第一季度表现强劲，但上涨步伐可能会放缓。虽然投资者不一定应该纾困，但他们应该变得更加有选择性。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.<blockquote>今年前三个月，标普500上涨5.8%。有利因素很多：Covid-19疫苗接种速度加快，而数万亿美元的政府支出支撑了需求。</blockquote> The economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.<blockquote>经济正在从2020年封锁造成的损害中迅速反弹。ADP周三公布的数据显示，美国3月份私营部门新增就业岗位517,000个，为9月份以来的最高总数。1月份零售额比12月份高出5%。</blockquote> The economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.<blockquote>经济反弹解释了罗素2000指数今年年初上涨13%的原因。小市值公司（例如罗素指数中的公司）的盈利波动往往比大公司大得多。</blockquote> Because they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.<blockquote>由于他们规模较小，他们发现在困难时期更难削减成本，因此当经济恶化时，他们的收入下降得更严重。另一方面，当情况改善时，利润会增加。此外，他们获得资本的机会相对有限，这使得他们更难度过经济低迷时期，因此他们的股票可能会随着经济变化而暴跌和飙升。</blockquote> Cyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.<blockquote>出于类似的原因，从银行到石油生产商再到非必需消费品销售商，无论大小周期性股票今年的表现都优于大盘。与公用事业或消费必需品公司相比，他们看到了经济回暖时的巨大好处。</blockquote> Where the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”<blockquote>现在市场的走向还不太清楚。德美利证券首席市场策略师JJ Kinahan表示：“我们正处于十字路口。”“每个人都在试图弄清楚接下来会发生什么。其中一部分是观望。”</blockquote> Stocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.<blockquote>股市缺乏大量上涨动力。公司已经完成了第四季度的收益报告，对疫苗的预期不会好到哪里去，政府支撑经济的支出也将下降，至少按年计算是这样。拜登政府提出的2万亿美元基础设施支出将跨越八年，相当于每年2500亿美元。</blockquote> And while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.<blockquote>尽管经济消息可能会继续改善，但反弹可能已经见顶。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师迈克·威尔逊在一份报告中写道，经济可能会“个人收入、采购经理人指数和GDP的变化速度放缓”。</blockquote> Meanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&amp;P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.<blockquote>与此同时，股市已经反映了大部分积极消息，因为估值很高。标普500股票的平均市盈率是来年预期每股收益的22倍，而华尔街的一些策略师在对该指数做出预测时假设的市盈率是20倍。</blockquote> It would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.<blockquote>如果估值回到20倍也就不足为奇了，这意味着除非盈利增长超过预期，否则股市几乎不会上涨。尤其如此，因为安全政府债务的收益率正在上升，使得债券作为替代方案更具吸引力。</blockquote> The yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.<blockquote>10年期国债收益率已从年初的0.91%攀升至周三的1.72%。预计今年将接近2%。</blockquote> Earnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&amp;P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.<blockquote>花旗集团策略师的一项调查显示，预计到2022年，盈利将继续强劲增长，但估值下行压力使许多基金经理预计今年标准普尔指数走势基本持平。</blockquote> Still, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.<blockquote>尽管如此，今年晚些时候发布的收益报告可能会包含积极的惊喜。瑞士信贷最近一份报告的数据显示，收入增长往往是国内生产总值增长的两倍左右。市场普遍预期今年GDP将增长7%左右，因此收入将增长14%左右，而不是FactSet数据显示华尔街预测的9%。</blockquote> Higher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&amp;P 500—may have peaked.<blockquote>更高的收入增长意味着更高的盈利增长，以及股票的持续上涨。一种反驳观点是，所谓的盈利预测上调幅度——即评级对标普500各行业公司利润的影响程度——可能已经见顶。</blockquote> A chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师威尔逊发布的一份研究报告中的图表显示，广度最近达到了2018年和2010年的水平。在这两种情况下，广度都迅速急剧下降，更多公司的盈利预测被下调。投资者可能会惊喜地看到盈利预期从这里上升，但一些数据表明他们不应该指望这一点。</blockquote> Fortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.<blockquote>幸运的是，小盘价值股的近期盈利增长更强劲，估值也更可容忍。无论盈利预测是上升还是下降，它们的表现都可能继续优于大盘股。</blockquote> Now is the time to be picky.<blockquote>现在是挑剔的时候了。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-04-01 15:57\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nStocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.<blockquote>股市第一季度表现强劲，但上涨步伐可能会放缓。虽然投资者不一定应该纾困，但他们应该变得更加有选择性。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.<blockquote>今年前三个月，标普500上涨5.8%。有利因素很多：Covid-19疫苗接种速度加快，而数万亿美元的政府支出支撑了需求。</blockquote> The economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.<blockquote>经济正在从2020年封锁造成的损害中迅速反弹。ADP周三公布的数据显示，美国3月份私营部门新增就业岗位517,000个，为9月份以来的最高总数。1月份零售额比12月份高出5%。</blockquote> The economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.<blockquote>经济反弹解释了罗素2000指数今年年初上涨13%的原因。小市值公司（例如罗素指数中的公司）的盈利波动往往比大公司大得多。</blockquote> Because they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.<blockquote>由于他们规模较小，他们发现在困难时期更难削减成本，因此当经济恶化时，他们的收入下降得更严重。另一方面，当情况改善时，利润会增加。此外，他们获得资本的机会相对有限，这使得他们更难度过经济低迷时期，因此他们的股票可能会随着经济变化而暴跌和飙升。</blockquote> Cyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.<blockquote>出于类似的原因，从银行到石油生产商再到非必需消费品销售商，无论大小周期性股票今年的表现都优于大盘。与公用事业或消费必需品公司相比，他们看到了经济回暖时的巨大好处。</blockquote> Where the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”<blockquote>现在市场的走向还不太清楚。德美利证券首席市场策略师JJ Kinahan表示：“我们正处于十字路口。”“每个人都在试图弄清楚接下来会发生什么。其中一部分是观望。”</blockquote> Stocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.<blockquote>股市缺乏大量上涨动力。公司已经完成了第四季度的收益报告，对疫苗的预期不会好到哪里去，政府支撑经济的支出也将下降，至少按年计算是这样。拜登政府提出的2万亿美元基础设施支出将跨越八年，相当于每年2500亿美元。</blockquote> And while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.<blockquote>尽管经济消息可能会继续改善，但反弹可能已经见顶。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师迈克·威尔逊在一份报告中写道，经济可能会“个人收入、采购经理人指数和GDP的变化速度放缓”。</blockquote> Meanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&amp;P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.<blockquote>与此同时，股市已经反映了大部分积极消息，因为估值很高。标普500股票的平均市盈率是来年预期每股收益的22倍，而华尔街的一些策略师在对该指数做出预测时假设的市盈率是20倍。</blockquote> It would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.<blockquote>如果估值回到20倍也就不足为奇了，这意味着除非盈利增长超过预期，否则股市几乎不会上涨。尤其如此，因为安全政府债务的收益率正在上升，使得债券作为替代方案更具吸引力。</blockquote> The yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.<blockquote>10年期国债收益率已从年初的0.91%攀升至周三的1.72%。预计今年将接近2%。</blockquote> Earnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&amp;P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.<blockquote>花旗集团策略师的一项调查显示，预计到2022年，盈利将继续强劲增长，但估值下行压力使许多基金经理预计今年标准普尔指数走势基本持平。</blockquote> Still, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.<blockquote>尽管如此，今年晚些时候发布的收益报告可能会包含积极的惊喜。瑞士信贷最近一份报告的数据显示，收入增长往往是国内生产总值增长的两倍左右。市场普遍预期今年GDP将增长7%左右，因此收入将增长14%左右，而不是FactSet数据显示华尔街预测的9%。</blockquote> Higher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&amp;P 500—may have peaked.<blockquote>更高的收入增长意味着更高的盈利增长，以及股票的持续上涨。一种反驳观点是，所谓的盈利预测上调幅度——即评级对标普500各行业公司利润的影响程度——可能已经见顶。</blockquote> A chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师威尔逊发布的一份研究报告中的图表显示，广度最近达到了2018年和2010年的水平。在这两种情况下，广度都迅速急剧下降，更多公司的盈利预测被下调。投资者可能会惊喜地看到盈利预期从这里上升，但一些数据表明他们不应该指望这一点。</blockquote> Fortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.<blockquote>幸运的是，小盘价值股的近期盈利增长更强劲，估值也更可容忍。无论盈利预测是上升还是下降，它们的表现都可能继续优于大盘股。</blockquote> Now is the time to be picky.<blockquote>现在是挑剔的时候了。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-had-a-good-quarter-significant-gains-are-less-likely-now-51617219322?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-had-a-good-quarter-significant-gains-are-less-likely-now-51617219322?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127042118","content_text":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.\nThe S&P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.\nThe economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.\nThe economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.\nBecause they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.\nCyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.\nWhere the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”\nStocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.\nAnd while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.\nMeanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.\nIt would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.\nThe yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.\nEarnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.\nStill, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.\nHigher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&P 500—may have peaked.\nA chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.\nFortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.\nNow is the time to be picky.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":357233648,"gmtCreate":1617275486284,"gmtModify":1631888868556,"author":{"id":"3556172425647139","authorId":"3556172425647139","name":"Squidworth","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d80950fb27e9fd75e2766e315dfd816","vip":1,"crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3556172425647139","idStr":"3556172425647139"},"htmlText":"Good first quarter??seriously?","listText":"Good first quarter??seriously?","text":"Good first quarter??seriously?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357233648","repostId":1127042118,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127042118","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617263854,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127042118?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-01 15:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127042118","media":"Barron's","summary":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors ","content":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.<blockquote>股市第一季度表现强劲，但上涨步伐可能会放缓。虽然投资者不一定应该纾困，但他们应该变得更加有选择性。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.<blockquote>今年前三个月，标普500上涨5.8%。有利因素很多：Covid-19疫苗接种速度加快，而数万亿美元的政府支出支撑了需求。</blockquote> The economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.<blockquote>经济正在从2020年封锁造成的损害中迅速反弹。ADP周三公布的数据显示，美国3月份私营部门新增就业岗位517,000个，为9月份以来的最高总数。1月份零售额比12月份高出5%。</blockquote> The economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.<blockquote>经济反弹解释了罗素2000指数今年年初上涨13%的原因。小市值公司（例如罗素指数中的公司）的盈利波动往往比大公司大得多。</blockquote> Because they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.<blockquote>由于他们规模较小，他们发现在困难时期更难削减成本，因此当经济恶化时，他们的收入下降得更严重。另一方面，当情况改善时，利润会增加。此外，他们获得资本的机会相对有限，这使得他们更难度过经济低迷时期，因此他们的股票可能会随着经济变化而暴跌和飙升。</blockquote> Cyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.<blockquote>出于类似的原因，从银行到石油生产商再到非必需消费品销售商，无论大小周期性股票今年的表现都优于大盘。与公用事业或消费必需品公司相比，他们看到了经济回暖时的巨大好处。</blockquote> Where the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”<blockquote>现在市场的走向还不太清楚。德美利证券首席市场策略师JJ Kinahan表示：“我们正处于十字路口。”“每个人都在试图弄清楚接下来会发生什么。其中一部分是观望。”</blockquote> Stocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.<blockquote>股市缺乏大量上涨动力。公司已经完成了第四季度的收益报告，对疫苗的预期不会好到哪里去，政府支撑经济的支出也将下降，至少按年计算是这样。拜登政府提出的2万亿美元基础设施支出将跨越八年，相当于每年2500亿美元。</blockquote> And while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.<blockquote>尽管经济消息可能会继续改善，但反弹可能已经见顶。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师迈克·威尔逊在一份报告中写道，经济可能会“个人收入、采购经理人指数和GDP的变化速度放缓”。</blockquote> Meanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&amp;P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.<blockquote>与此同时，股市已经反映了大部分积极消息，因为估值很高。标普500股票的平均市盈率是来年预期每股收益的22倍，而华尔街的一些策略师在对该指数做出预测时假设的市盈率是20倍。</blockquote> It would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.<blockquote>如果估值回到20倍也就不足为奇了，这意味着除非盈利增长超过预期，否则股市几乎不会上涨。尤其如此，因为安全政府债务的收益率正在上升，使得债券作为替代方案更具吸引力。</blockquote> The yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.<blockquote>10年期国债收益率已从年初的0.91%攀升至周三的1.72%。预计今年将接近2%。</blockquote> Earnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&amp;P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.<blockquote>花旗集团策略师的一项调查显示，预计到2022年，盈利将继续强劲增长，但估值下行压力使许多基金经理预计今年标准普尔指数走势基本持平。</blockquote> Still, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.<blockquote>尽管如此，今年晚些时候发布的收益报告可能会包含积极的惊喜。瑞士信贷最近一份报告的数据显示，收入增长往往是国内生产总值增长的两倍左右。市场普遍预期今年GDP将增长7%左右，因此收入将增长14%左右，而不是FactSet数据显示华尔街预测的9%。</blockquote> Higher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&amp;P 500—may have peaked.<blockquote>更高的收入增长意味着更高的盈利增长，以及股票的持续上涨。一种反驳观点是，所谓的盈利预测上调幅度——即评级对标普500各行业公司利润的影响程度——可能已经见顶。</blockquote> A chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师威尔逊发布的一份研究报告中的图表显示，广度最近达到了2018年和2010年的水平。在这两种情况下，广度都迅速急剧下降，更多公司的盈利预测被下调。投资者可能会惊喜地看到盈利预期从这里上升，但一些数据表明他们不应该指望这一点。</blockquote> Fortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.<blockquote>幸运的是，小盘价值股的近期盈利增长更强劲，估值也更可容忍。无论盈利预测是上升还是下降，它们的表现都可能继续优于大盘股。</blockquote> Now is the time to be picky.<blockquote>现在是挑剔的时候了。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-04-01 15:57\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nStocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.<blockquote>股市第一季度表现强劲，但上涨步伐可能会放缓。虽然投资者不一定应该纾困，但他们应该变得更加有选择性。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.<blockquote>今年前三个月，标普500上涨5.8%。有利因素很多：Covid-19疫苗接种速度加快，而数万亿美元的政府支出支撑了需求。</blockquote> The economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.<blockquote>经济正在从2020年封锁造成的损害中迅速反弹。ADP周三公布的数据显示，美国3月份私营部门新增就业岗位517,000个，为9月份以来的最高总数。1月份零售额比12月份高出5%。</blockquote> The economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.<blockquote>经济反弹解释了罗素2000指数今年年初上涨13%的原因。小市值公司（例如罗素指数中的公司）的盈利波动往往比大公司大得多。</blockquote> Because they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.<blockquote>由于他们规模较小，他们发现在困难时期更难削减成本，因此当经济恶化时，他们的收入下降得更严重。另一方面，当情况改善时，利润会增加。此外，他们获得资本的机会相对有限，这使得他们更难度过经济低迷时期，因此他们的股票可能会随着经济变化而暴跌和飙升。</blockquote> Cyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.<blockquote>出于类似的原因，从银行到石油生产商再到非必需消费品销售商，无论大小周期性股票今年的表现都优于大盘。与公用事业或消费必需品公司相比，他们看到了经济回暖时的巨大好处。</blockquote> Where the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”<blockquote>现在市场的走向还不太清楚。德美利证券首席市场策略师JJ Kinahan表示：“我们正处于十字路口。”“每个人都在试图弄清楚接下来会发生什么。其中一部分是观望。”</blockquote> Stocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.<blockquote>股市缺乏大量上涨动力。公司已经完成了第四季度的收益报告，对疫苗的预期不会好到哪里去，政府支撑经济的支出也将下降，至少按年计算是这样。拜登政府提出的2万亿美元基础设施支出将跨越八年，相当于每年2500亿美元。</blockquote> And while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.<blockquote>尽管经济消息可能会继续改善，但反弹可能已经见顶。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师迈克·威尔逊在一份报告中写道，经济可能会“个人收入、采购经理人指数和GDP的变化速度放缓”。</blockquote> Meanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&amp;P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.<blockquote>与此同时，股市已经反映了大部分积极消息，因为估值很高。标普500股票的平均市盈率是来年预期每股收益的22倍，而华尔街的一些策略师在对该指数做出预测时假设的市盈率是20倍。</blockquote> It would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.<blockquote>如果估值回到20倍也就不足为奇了，这意味着除非盈利增长超过预期，否则股市几乎不会上涨。尤其如此，因为安全政府债务的收益率正在上升，使得债券作为替代方案更具吸引力。</blockquote> The yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.<blockquote>10年期国债收益率已从年初的0.91%攀升至周三的1.72%。预计今年将接近2%。</blockquote> Earnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&amp;P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.<blockquote>花旗集团策略师的一项调查显示，预计到2022年，盈利将继续强劲增长，但估值下行压力使许多基金经理预计今年标准普尔指数走势基本持平。</blockquote> Still, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.<blockquote>尽管如此，今年晚些时候发布的收益报告可能会包含积极的惊喜。瑞士信贷最近一份报告的数据显示，收入增长往往是国内生产总值增长的两倍左右。市场普遍预期今年GDP将增长7%左右，因此收入将增长14%左右，而不是FactSet数据显示华尔街预测的9%。</blockquote> Higher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&amp;P 500—may have peaked.<blockquote>更高的收入增长意味着更高的盈利增长，以及股票的持续上涨。一种反驳观点是，所谓的盈利预测上调幅度——即评级对标普500各行业公司利润的影响程度——可能已经见顶。</blockquote> A chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师威尔逊发布的一份研究报告中的图表显示，广度最近达到了2018年和2010年的水平。在这两种情况下，广度都迅速急剧下降，更多公司的盈利预测被下调。投资者可能会惊喜地看到盈利预期从这里上升，但一些数据表明他们不应该指望这一点。</blockquote> Fortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.<blockquote>幸运的是，小盘价值股的近期盈利增长更强劲，估值也更可容忍。无论盈利预测是上升还是下降，它们的表现都可能继续优于大盘股。</blockquote> Now is the time to be picky.<blockquote>现在是挑剔的时候了。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-had-a-good-quarter-significant-gains-are-less-likely-now-51617219322?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-had-a-good-quarter-significant-gains-are-less-likely-now-51617219322?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127042118","content_text":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.\nThe S&P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.\nThe economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.\nThe economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.\nBecause they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.\nCyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.\nWhere the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”\nStocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.\nAnd while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.\nMeanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.\nIt would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.\nThe yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.\nEarnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.\nStill, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.\nHigher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&P 500—may have peaked.\nA chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.\nFortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.\nNow is the time to be picky.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":357239189,"gmtCreate":1617275295441,"gmtModify":1634521668815,"author":{"id":"3575478895169151","authorId":"3575478895169151","name":"JuanPeppa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11e978e3883c2747c5361be0b59b2116","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3575478895169151","idStr":"3575478895169151"},"htmlText":"Heavy on growth stocks? Rotation back to tech pls🙏","listText":"Heavy on growth stocks? Rotation back to tech pls🙏","text":"Heavy on growth stocks? Rotation back to tech pls🙏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357239189","repostId":1127042118,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127042118","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617263854,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127042118?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-01 15:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127042118","media":"Barron's","summary":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors ","content":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.<blockquote>股市第一季度表现强劲，但上涨步伐可能会放缓。虽然投资者不一定应该纾困，但他们应该变得更加有选择性。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.<blockquote>今年前三个月，标普500上涨5.8%。有利因素很多：Covid-19疫苗接种速度加快，而数万亿美元的政府支出支撑了需求。</blockquote> The economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.<blockquote>经济正在从2020年封锁造成的损害中迅速反弹。ADP周三公布的数据显示，美国3月份私营部门新增就业岗位517,000个，为9月份以来的最高总数。1月份零售额比12月份高出5%。</blockquote> The economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.<blockquote>经济反弹解释了罗素2000指数今年年初上涨13%的原因。小市值公司（例如罗素指数中的公司）的盈利波动往往比大公司大得多。</blockquote> Because they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.<blockquote>由于他们规模较小，他们发现在困难时期更难削减成本，因此当经济恶化时，他们的收入下降得更严重。另一方面，当情况改善时，利润会增加。此外，他们获得资本的机会相对有限，这使得他们更难度过经济低迷时期，因此他们的股票可能会随着经济变化而暴跌和飙升。</blockquote> Cyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.<blockquote>出于类似的原因，从银行到石油生产商再到非必需消费品销售商，无论大小周期性股票今年的表现都优于大盘。与公用事业或消费必需品公司相比，他们看到了经济回暖时的巨大好处。</blockquote> Where the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”<blockquote>现在市场的走向还不太清楚。德美利证券首席市场策略师JJ Kinahan表示：“我们正处于十字路口。”“每个人都在试图弄清楚接下来会发生什么。其中一部分是观望。”</blockquote> Stocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.<blockquote>股市缺乏大量上涨动力。公司已经完成了第四季度的收益报告，对疫苗的预期不会好到哪里去，政府支撑经济的支出也将下降，至少按年计算是这样。拜登政府提出的2万亿美元基础设施支出将跨越八年，相当于每年2500亿美元。</blockquote> And while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.<blockquote>尽管经济消息可能会继续改善，但反弹可能已经见顶。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师迈克·威尔逊在一份报告中写道，经济可能会“个人收入、采购经理人指数和GDP的变化速度放缓”。</blockquote> Meanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&amp;P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.<blockquote>与此同时，股市已经反映了大部分积极消息，因为估值很高。标普500股票的平均市盈率是来年预期每股收益的22倍，而华尔街的一些策略师在对该指数做出预测时假设的市盈率是20倍。</blockquote> It would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.<blockquote>如果估值回到20倍也就不足为奇了，这意味着除非盈利增长超过预期，否则股市几乎不会上涨。尤其如此，因为安全政府债务的收益率正在上升，使得债券作为替代方案更具吸引力。</blockquote> The yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.<blockquote>10年期国债收益率已从年初的0.91%攀升至周三的1.72%。预计今年将接近2%。</blockquote> Earnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&amp;P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.<blockquote>花旗集团策略师的一项调查显示，预计到2022年，盈利将继续强劲增长，但估值下行压力使许多基金经理预计今年标准普尔指数走势基本持平。</blockquote> Still, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.<blockquote>尽管如此，今年晚些时候发布的收益报告可能会包含积极的惊喜。瑞士信贷最近一份报告的数据显示，收入增长往往是国内生产总值增长的两倍左右。市场普遍预期今年GDP将增长7%左右，因此收入将增长14%左右，而不是FactSet数据显示华尔街预测的9%。</blockquote> Higher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&amp;P 500—may have peaked.<blockquote>更高的收入增长意味着更高的盈利增长，以及股票的持续上涨。一种反驳观点是，所谓的盈利预测上调幅度——即评级对标普500各行业公司利润的影响程度——可能已经见顶。</blockquote> A chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师威尔逊发布的一份研究报告中的图表显示，广度最近达到了2018年和2010年的水平。在这两种情况下，广度都迅速急剧下降，更多公司的盈利预测被下调。投资者可能会惊喜地看到盈利预期从这里上升，但一些数据表明他们不应该指望这一点。</blockquote> Fortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.<blockquote>幸运的是，小盘价值股的近期盈利增长更强劲，估值也更可容忍。无论盈利预测是上升还是下降，它们的表现都可能继续优于大盘股。</blockquote> Now is the time to be picky.<blockquote>现在是挑剔的时候了。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-04-01 15:57\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nStocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.<blockquote>股市第一季度表现强劲，但上涨步伐可能会放缓。虽然投资者不一定应该纾困，但他们应该变得更加有选择性。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.<blockquote>今年前三个月，标普500上涨5.8%。有利因素很多：Covid-19疫苗接种速度加快，而数万亿美元的政府支出支撑了需求。</blockquote> The economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.<blockquote>经济正在从2020年封锁造成的损害中迅速反弹。ADP周三公布的数据显示，美国3月份私营部门新增就业岗位517,000个，为9月份以来的最高总数。1月份零售额比12月份高出5%。</blockquote> The economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.<blockquote>经济反弹解释了罗素2000指数今年年初上涨13%的原因。小市值公司（例如罗素指数中的公司）的盈利波动往往比大公司大得多。</blockquote> Because they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.<blockquote>由于他们规模较小，他们发现在困难时期更难削减成本，因此当经济恶化时，他们的收入下降得更严重。另一方面，当情况改善时，利润会增加。此外，他们获得资本的机会相对有限，这使得他们更难度过经济低迷时期，因此他们的股票可能会随着经济变化而暴跌和飙升。</blockquote> Cyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.<blockquote>出于类似的原因，从银行到石油生产商再到非必需消费品销售商，无论大小周期性股票今年的表现都优于大盘。与公用事业或消费必需品公司相比，他们看到了经济回暖时的巨大好处。</blockquote> Where the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”<blockquote>现在市场的走向还不太清楚。德美利证券首席市场策略师JJ Kinahan表示：“我们正处于十字路口。”“每个人都在试图弄清楚接下来会发生什么。其中一部分是观望。”</blockquote> Stocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.<blockquote>股市缺乏大量上涨动力。公司已经完成了第四季度的收益报告，对疫苗的预期不会好到哪里去，政府支撑经济的支出也将下降，至少按年计算是这样。拜登政府提出的2万亿美元基础设施支出将跨越八年，相当于每年2500亿美元。</blockquote> And while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.<blockquote>尽管经济消息可能会继续改善，但反弹可能已经见顶。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师迈克·威尔逊在一份报告中写道，经济可能会“个人收入、采购经理人指数和GDP的变化速度放缓”。</blockquote> Meanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&amp;P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.<blockquote>与此同时，股市已经反映了大部分积极消息，因为估值很高。标普500股票的平均市盈率是来年预期每股收益的22倍，而华尔街的一些策略师在对该指数做出预测时假设的市盈率是20倍。</blockquote> It would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.<blockquote>如果估值回到20倍也就不足为奇了，这意味着除非盈利增长超过预期，否则股市几乎不会上涨。尤其如此，因为安全政府债务的收益率正在上升，使得债券作为替代方案更具吸引力。</blockquote> The yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.<blockquote>10年期国债收益率已从年初的0.91%攀升至周三的1.72%。预计今年将接近2%。</blockquote> Earnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&amp;P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.<blockquote>花旗集团策略师的一项调查显示，预计到2022年，盈利将继续强劲增长，但估值下行压力使许多基金经理预计今年标准普尔指数走势基本持平。</blockquote> Still, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.<blockquote>尽管如此，今年晚些时候发布的收益报告可能会包含积极的惊喜。瑞士信贷最近一份报告的数据显示，收入增长往往是国内生产总值增长的两倍左右。市场普遍预期今年GDP将增长7%左右，因此收入将增长14%左右，而不是FactSet数据显示华尔街预测的9%。</blockquote> Higher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&amp;P 500—may have peaked.<blockquote>更高的收入增长意味着更高的盈利增长，以及股票的持续上涨。一种反驳观点是，所谓的盈利预测上调幅度——即评级对标普500各行业公司利润的影响程度——可能已经见顶。</blockquote> A chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师威尔逊发布的一份研究报告中的图表显示，广度最近达到了2018年和2010年的水平。在这两种情况下，广度都迅速急剧下降，更多公司的盈利预测被下调。投资者可能会惊喜地看到盈利预期从这里上升，但一些数据表明他们不应该指望这一点。</blockquote> Fortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.<blockquote>幸运的是，小盘价值股的近期盈利增长更强劲，估值也更可容忍。无论盈利预测是上升还是下降，它们的表现都可能继续优于大盘股。</blockquote> Now is the time to be picky.<blockquote>现在是挑剔的时候了。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-had-a-good-quarter-significant-gains-are-less-likely-now-51617219322?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-had-a-good-quarter-significant-gains-are-less-likely-now-51617219322?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127042118","content_text":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.\nThe S&P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.\nThe economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.\nThe economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.\nBecause they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.\nCyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.\nWhere the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”\nStocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.\nAnd while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.\nMeanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.\nIt would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.\nThe yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.\nEarnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.\nStill, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.\nHigher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&P 500—may have peaked.\nA chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.\nFortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.\nNow is the time to be picky.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":357230421,"gmtCreate":1617275277163,"gmtModify":1634521669035,"author":{"id":"3554690739454545","authorId":"3554690739454545","name":"Shifeng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7eba636a69f64b047187455fad28835a","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3554690739454545","idStr":"3554690739454545"},"htmlText":"I think it is time to be more selective, take a look on analysis tab&nbsp;will help.","listText":"I think it is time to be more selective, take a look on analysis tab&nbsp;will help.","text":"I think it is time to be more selective, take a look on analysis tab will help.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357230421","repostId":1127042118,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127042118","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617263854,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127042118?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-01 15:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127042118","media":"Barron's","summary":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors ","content":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.<blockquote>股市第一季度表现强劲，但上涨步伐可能会放缓。虽然投资者不一定应该纾困，但他们应该变得更加有选择性。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.<blockquote>今年前三个月，标普500上涨5.8%。有利因素很多：Covid-19疫苗接种速度加快，而数万亿美元的政府支出支撑了需求。</blockquote> The economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.<blockquote>经济正在从2020年封锁造成的损害中迅速反弹。ADP周三公布的数据显示，美国3月份私营部门新增就业岗位517,000个，为9月份以来的最高总数。1月份零售额比12月份高出5%。</blockquote> The economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.<blockquote>经济反弹解释了罗素2000指数今年年初上涨13%的原因。小市值公司（例如罗素指数中的公司）的盈利波动往往比大公司大得多。</blockquote> Because they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.<blockquote>由于他们规模较小，他们发现在困难时期更难削减成本，因此当经济恶化时，他们的收入下降得更严重。另一方面，当情况改善时，利润会增加。此外，他们获得资本的机会相对有限，这使得他们更难度过经济低迷时期，因此他们的股票可能会随着经济变化而暴跌和飙升。</blockquote> Cyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.<blockquote>出于类似的原因，从银行到石油生产商再到非必需消费品销售商，无论大小周期性股票今年的表现都优于大盘。与公用事业或消费必需品公司相比，他们看到了经济回暖时的巨大好处。</blockquote> Where the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”<blockquote>现在市场的走向还不太清楚。德美利证券首席市场策略师JJ Kinahan表示：“我们正处于十字路口。”“每个人都在试图弄清楚接下来会发生什么。其中一部分是观望。”</blockquote> Stocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.<blockquote>股市缺乏大量上涨动力。公司已经完成了第四季度的收益报告，对疫苗的预期不会好到哪里去，政府支撑经济的支出也将下降，至少按年计算是这样。拜登政府提出的2万亿美元基础设施支出将跨越八年，相当于每年2500亿美元。</blockquote> And while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.<blockquote>尽管经济消息可能会继续改善，但反弹可能已经见顶。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师迈克·威尔逊在一份报告中写道，经济可能会“个人收入、采购经理人指数和GDP的变化速度放缓”。</blockquote> Meanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&amp;P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.<blockquote>与此同时，股市已经反映了大部分积极消息，因为估值很高。标普500股票的平均市盈率是来年预期每股收益的22倍，而华尔街的一些策略师在对该指数做出预测时假设的市盈率是20倍。</blockquote> It would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.<blockquote>如果估值回到20倍也就不足为奇了，这意味着除非盈利增长超过预期，否则股市几乎不会上涨。尤其如此，因为安全政府债务的收益率正在上升，使得债券作为替代方案更具吸引力。</blockquote> The yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.<blockquote>10年期国债收益率已从年初的0.91%攀升至周三的1.72%。预计今年将接近2%。</blockquote> Earnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&amp;P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.<blockquote>花旗集团策略师的一项调查显示，预计到2022年，盈利将继续强劲增长，但估值下行压力使许多基金经理预计今年标准普尔指数走势基本持平。</blockquote> Still, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.<blockquote>尽管如此，今年晚些时候发布的收益报告可能会包含积极的惊喜。瑞士信贷最近一份报告的数据显示，收入增长往往是国内生产总值增长的两倍左右。市场普遍预期今年GDP将增长7%左右，因此收入将增长14%左右，而不是FactSet数据显示华尔街预测的9%。</blockquote> Higher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&amp;P 500—may have peaked.<blockquote>更高的收入增长意味着更高的盈利增长，以及股票的持续上涨。一种反驳观点是，所谓的盈利预测上调幅度——即评级对标普500各行业公司利润的影响程度——可能已经见顶。</blockquote> A chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师威尔逊发布的一份研究报告中的图表显示，广度最近达到了2018年和2010年的水平。在这两种情况下，广度都迅速急剧下降，更多公司的盈利预测被下调。投资者可能会惊喜地看到盈利预期从这里上升，但一些数据表明他们不应该指望这一点。</blockquote> Fortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.<blockquote>幸运的是，小盘价值股的近期盈利增长更强劲，估值也更可容忍。无论盈利预测是上升还是下降，它们的表现都可能继续优于大盘股。</blockquote> Now is the time to be picky.<blockquote>现在是挑剔的时候了。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-04-01 15:57\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nStocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.<blockquote>股市第一季度表现强劲，但上涨步伐可能会放缓。虽然投资者不一定应该纾困，但他们应该变得更加有选择性。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.<blockquote>今年前三个月，标普500上涨5.8%。有利因素很多：Covid-19疫苗接种速度加快，而数万亿美元的政府支出支撑了需求。</blockquote> The economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.<blockquote>经济正在从2020年封锁造成的损害中迅速反弹。ADP周三公布的数据显示，美国3月份私营部门新增就业岗位517,000个，为9月份以来的最高总数。1月份零售额比12月份高出5%。</blockquote> The economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.<blockquote>经济反弹解释了罗素2000指数今年年初上涨13%的原因。小市值公司（例如罗素指数中的公司）的盈利波动往往比大公司大得多。</blockquote> Because they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.<blockquote>由于他们规模较小，他们发现在困难时期更难削减成本，因此当经济恶化时，他们的收入下降得更严重。另一方面，当情况改善时，利润会增加。此外，他们获得资本的机会相对有限，这使得他们更难度过经济低迷时期，因此他们的股票可能会随着经济变化而暴跌和飙升。</blockquote> Cyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.<blockquote>出于类似的原因，从银行到石油生产商再到非必需消费品销售商，无论大小周期性股票今年的表现都优于大盘。与公用事业或消费必需品公司相比，他们看到了经济回暖时的巨大好处。</blockquote> Where the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”<blockquote>现在市场的走向还不太清楚。德美利证券首席市场策略师JJ Kinahan表示：“我们正处于十字路口。”“每个人都在试图弄清楚接下来会发生什么。其中一部分是观望。”</blockquote> Stocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.<blockquote>股市缺乏大量上涨动力。公司已经完成了第四季度的收益报告，对疫苗的预期不会好到哪里去，政府支撑经济的支出也将下降，至少按年计算是这样。拜登政府提出的2万亿美元基础设施支出将跨越八年，相当于每年2500亿美元。</blockquote> And while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.<blockquote>尽管经济消息可能会继续改善，但反弹可能已经见顶。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师迈克·威尔逊在一份报告中写道，经济可能会“个人收入、采购经理人指数和GDP的变化速度放缓”。</blockquote> Meanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&amp;P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.<blockquote>与此同时，股市已经反映了大部分积极消息，因为估值很高。标普500股票的平均市盈率是来年预期每股收益的22倍，而华尔街的一些策略师在对该指数做出预测时假设的市盈率是20倍。</blockquote> It would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.<blockquote>如果估值回到20倍也就不足为奇了，这意味着除非盈利增长超过预期，否则股市几乎不会上涨。尤其如此，因为安全政府债务的收益率正在上升，使得债券作为替代方案更具吸引力。</blockquote> The yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.<blockquote>10年期国债收益率已从年初的0.91%攀升至周三的1.72%。预计今年将接近2%。</blockquote> Earnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&amp;P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.<blockquote>花旗集团策略师的一项调查显示，预计到2022年，盈利将继续强劲增长，但估值下行压力使许多基金经理预计今年标准普尔指数走势基本持平。</blockquote> Still, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.<blockquote>尽管如此，今年晚些时候发布的收益报告可能会包含积极的惊喜。瑞士信贷最近一份报告的数据显示，收入增长往往是国内生产总值增长的两倍左右。市场普遍预期今年GDP将增长7%左右，因此收入将增长14%左右，而不是FactSet数据显示华尔街预测的9%。</blockquote> Higher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&amp;P 500—may have peaked.<blockquote>更高的收入增长意味着更高的盈利增长，以及股票的持续上涨。一种反驳观点是，所谓的盈利预测上调幅度——即评级对标普500各行业公司利润的影响程度——可能已经见顶。</blockquote> A chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师威尔逊发布的一份研究报告中的图表显示，广度最近达到了2018年和2010年的水平。在这两种情况下，广度都迅速急剧下降，更多公司的盈利预测被下调。投资者可能会惊喜地看到盈利预期从这里上升，但一些数据表明他们不应该指望这一点。</blockquote> Fortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.<blockquote>幸运的是，小盘价值股的近期盈利增长更强劲，估值也更可容忍。无论盈利预测是上升还是下降，它们的表现都可能继续优于大盘股。</blockquote> Now is the time to be picky.<blockquote>现在是挑剔的时候了。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-had-a-good-quarter-significant-gains-are-less-likely-now-51617219322?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-had-a-good-quarter-significant-gains-are-less-likely-now-51617219322?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127042118","content_text":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.\nThe S&P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.\nThe economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.\nThe economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.\nBecause they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.\nCyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.\nWhere the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”\nStocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.\nAnd while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.\nMeanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.\nIt would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.\nThe yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.\nEarnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.\nStill, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.\nHigher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&P 500—may have peaked.\nA chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.\nFortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.\nNow is the time to be picky.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":357230695,"gmtCreate":1617275200417,"gmtModify":1634521669274,"author":{"id":"3577319788439179","authorId":"3577319788439179","name":"Soonyee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3577319788439179","idStr":"3577319788439179"},"htmlText":"Leave a comment please haha","listText":"Leave a comment please haha","text":"Leave a comment please haha","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357230695","repostId":1127042118,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127042118","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617263854,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127042118?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-01 15:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127042118","media":"Barron's","summary":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors ","content":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.<blockquote>股市第一季度表现强劲，但上涨步伐可能会放缓。虽然投资者不一定应该纾困，但他们应该变得更加有选择性。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.<blockquote>今年前三个月，标普500上涨5.8%。有利因素很多：Covid-19疫苗接种速度加快，而数万亿美元的政府支出支撑了需求。</blockquote> The economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.<blockquote>经济正在从2020年封锁造成的损害中迅速反弹。ADP周三公布的数据显示，美国3月份私营部门新增就业岗位517,000个，为9月份以来的最高总数。1月份零售额比12月份高出5%。</blockquote> The economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.<blockquote>经济反弹解释了罗素2000指数今年年初上涨13%的原因。小市值公司（例如罗素指数中的公司）的盈利波动往往比大公司大得多。</blockquote> Because they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.<blockquote>由于他们规模较小，他们发现在困难时期更难削减成本，因此当经济恶化时，他们的收入下降得更严重。另一方面，当情况改善时，利润会增加。此外，他们获得资本的机会相对有限，这使得他们更难度过经济低迷时期，因此他们的股票可能会随着经济变化而暴跌和飙升。</blockquote> Cyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.<blockquote>出于类似的原因，从银行到石油生产商再到非必需消费品销售商，无论大小周期性股票今年的表现都优于大盘。与公用事业或消费必需品公司相比，他们看到了经济回暖时的巨大好处。</blockquote> Where the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”<blockquote>现在市场的走向还不太清楚。德美利证券首席市场策略师JJ Kinahan表示：“我们正处于十字路口。”“每个人都在试图弄清楚接下来会发生什么。其中一部分是观望。”</blockquote> Stocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.<blockquote>股市缺乏大量上涨动力。公司已经完成了第四季度的收益报告，对疫苗的预期不会好到哪里去，政府支撑经济的支出也将下降，至少按年计算是这样。拜登政府提出的2万亿美元基础设施支出将跨越八年，相当于每年2500亿美元。</blockquote> And while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.<blockquote>尽管经济消息可能会继续改善，但反弹可能已经见顶。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师迈克·威尔逊在一份报告中写道，经济可能会“个人收入、采购经理人指数和GDP的变化速度放缓”。</blockquote> Meanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&amp;P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.<blockquote>与此同时，股市已经反映了大部分积极消息，因为估值很高。标普500股票的平均市盈率是来年预期每股收益的22倍，而华尔街的一些策略师在对该指数做出预测时假设的市盈率是20倍。</blockquote> It would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.<blockquote>如果估值回到20倍也就不足为奇了，这意味着除非盈利增长超过预期，否则股市几乎不会上涨。尤其如此，因为安全政府债务的收益率正在上升，使得债券作为替代方案更具吸引力。</blockquote> The yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.<blockquote>10年期国债收益率已从年初的0.91%攀升至周三的1.72%。预计今年将接近2%。</blockquote> Earnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&amp;P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.<blockquote>花旗集团策略师的一项调查显示，预计到2022年，盈利将继续强劲增长，但估值下行压力使许多基金经理预计今年标准普尔指数走势基本持平。</blockquote> Still, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.<blockquote>尽管如此，今年晚些时候发布的收益报告可能会包含积极的惊喜。瑞士信贷最近一份报告的数据显示，收入增长往往是国内生产总值增长的两倍左右。市场普遍预期今年GDP将增长7%左右，因此收入将增长14%左右，而不是FactSet数据显示华尔街预测的9%。</blockquote> Higher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&amp;P 500—may have peaked.<blockquote>更高的收入增长意味着更高的盈利增长，以及股票的持续上涨。一种反驳观点是，所谓的盈利预测上调幅度——即评级对标普500各行业公司利润的影响程度——可能已经见顶。</blockquote> A chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师威尔逊发布的一份研究报告中的图表显示，广度最近达到了2018年和2010年的水平。在这两种情况下，广度都迅速急剧下降，更多公司的盈利预测被下调。投资者可能会惊喜地看到盈利预期从这里上升，但一些数据表明他们不应该指望这一点。</blockquote> Fortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.<blockquote>幸运的是，小盘价值股的近期盈利增长更强劲，估值也更可容忍。无论盈利预测是上升还是下降，它们的表现都可能继续优于大盘股。</blockquote> Now is the time to be picky.<blockquote>现在是挑剔的时候了。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-04-01 15:57\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nStocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.<blockquote>股市第一季度表现强劲，但上涨步伐可能会放缓。虽然投资者不一定应该纾困，但他们应该变得更加有选择性。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.<blockquote>今年前三个月，标普500上涨5.8%。有利因素很多：Covid-19疫苗接种速度加快，而数万亿美元的政府支出支撑了需求。</blockquote> The economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.<blockquote>经济正在从2020年封锁造成的损害中迅速反弹。ADP周三公布的数据显示，美国3月份私营部门新增就业岗位517,000个，为9月份以来的最高总数。1月份零售额比12月份高出5%。</blockquote> The economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.<blockquote>经济反弹解释了罗素2000指数今年年初上涨13%的原因。小市值公司（例如罗素指数中的公司）的盈利波动往往比大公司大得多。</blockquote> Because they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.<blockquote>由于他们规模较小，他们发现在困难时期更难削减成本，因此当经济恶化时，他们的收入下降得更严重。另一方面，当情况改善时，利润会增加。此外，他们获得资本的机会相对有限，这使得他们更难度过经济低迷时期，因此他们的股票可能会随着经济变化而暴跌和飙升。</blockquote> Cyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.<blockquote>出于类似的原因，从银行到石油生产商再到非必需消费品销售商，无论大小周期性股票今年的表现都优于大盘。与公用事业或消费必需品公司相比，他们看到了经济回暖时的巨大好处。</blockquote> Where the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”<blockquote>现在市场的走向还不太清楚。德美利证券首席市场策略师JJ Kinahan表示：“我们正处于十字路口。”“每个人都在试图弄清楚接下来会发生什么。其中一部分是观望。”</blockquote> Stocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.<blockquote>股市缺乏大量上涨动力。公司已经完成了第四季度的收益报告，对疫苗的预期不会好到哪里去，政府支撑经济的支出也将下降，至少按年计算是这样。拜登政府提出的2万亿美元基础设施支出将跨越八年，相当于每年2500亿美元。</blockquote> And while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.<blockquote>尽管经济消息可能会继续改善，但反弹可能已经见顶。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师迈克·威尔逊在一份报告中写道，经济可能会“个人收入、采购经理人指数和GDP的变化速度放缓”。</blockquote> Meanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&amp;P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.<blockquote>与此同时，股市已经反映了大部分积极消息，因为估值很高。标普500股票的平均市盈率是来年预期每股收益的22倍，而华尔街的一些策略师在对该指数做出预测时假设的市盈率是20倍。</blockquote> It would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.<blockquote>如果估值回到20倍也就不足为奇了，这意味着除非盈利增长超过预期，否则股市几乎不会上涨。尤其如此，因为安全政府债务的收益率正在上升，使得债券作为替代方案更具吸引力。</blockquote> The yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.<blockquote>10年期国债收益率已从年初的0.91%攀升至周三的1.72%。预计今年将接近2%。</blockquote> Earnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&amp;P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.<blockquote>花旗集团策略师的一项调查显示，预计到2022年，盈利将继续强劲增长，但估值下行压力使许多基金经理预计今年标准普尔指数走势基本持平。</blockquote> Still, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.<blockquote>尽管如此，今年晚些时候发布的收益报告可能会包含积极的惊喜。瑞士信贷最近一份报告的数据显示，收入增长往往是国内生产总值增长的两倍左右。市场普遍预期今年GDP将增长7%左右，因此收入将增长14%左右，而不是FactSet数据显示华尔街预测的9%。</blockquote> Higher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&amp;P 500—may have peaked.<blockquote>更高的收入增长意味着更高的盈利增长，以及股票的持续上涨。一种反驳观点是，所谓的盈利预测上调幅度——即评级对标普500各行业公司利润的影响程度——可能已经见顶。</blockquote> A chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师威尔逊发布的一份研究报告中的图表显示，广度最近达到了2018年和2010年的水平。在这两种情况下，广度都迅速急剧下降，更多公司的盈利预测被下调。投资者可能会惊喜地看到盈利预期从这里上升，但一些数据表明他们不应该指望这一点。</blockquote> Fortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.<blockquote>幸运的是，小盘价值股的近期盈利增长更强劲，估值也更可容忍。无论盈利预测是上升还是下降，它们的表现都可能继续优于大盘股。</blockquote> Now is the time to be picky.<blockquote>现在是挑剔的时候了。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-had-a-good-quarter-significant-gains-are-less-likely-now-51617219322?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-had-a-good-quarter-significant-gains-are-less-likely-now-51617219322?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127042118","content_text":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.\nThe S&P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.\nThe economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.\nThe economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.\nBecause they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.\nCyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.\nWhere the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”\nStocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.\nAnd while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.\nMeanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.\nIt would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.\nThe yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.\nEarnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.\nStill, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.\nHigher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&P 500—may have peaked.\nA chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.\nFortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.\nNow is the time to be picky.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":357297929,"gmtCreate":1617275076661,"gmtModify":1634521670114,"author":{"id":"3569319160707763","authorId":"3569319160707763","name":"FuJie1010","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95099c51f8498b56c3973ded1570fc6b","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3569319160707763","idStr":"3569319160707763"},"htmlText":"Pick the stock carefully now","listText":"Pick the stock carefully now","text":"Pick the stock carefully now","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357297929","repostId":1127042118,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127042118","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617263854,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127042118?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-01 15:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127042118","media":"Barron's","summary":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors ","content":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.<blockquote>股市第一季度表现强劲，但上涨步伐可能会放缓。虽然投资者不一定应该纾困，但他们应该变得更加有选择性。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.<blockquote>今年前三个月，标普500上涨5.8%。有利因素很多：Covid-19疫苗接种速度加快，而数万亿美元的政府支出支撑了需求。</blockquote> The economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.<blockquote>经济正在从2020年封锁造成的损害中迅速反弹。ADP周三公布的数据显示，美国3月份私营部门新增就业岗位517,000个，为9月份以来的最高总数。1月份零售额比12月份高出5%。</blockquote> The economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.<blockquote>经济反弹解释了罗素2000指数今年年初上涨13%的原因。小市值公司（例如罗素指数中的公司）的盈利波动往往比大公司大得多。</blockquote> Because they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.<blockquote>由于他们规模较小，他们发现在困难时期更难削减成本，因此当经济恶化时，他们的收入下降得更严重。另一方面，当情况改善时，利润会增加。此外，他们获得资本的机会相对有限，这使得他们更难度过经济低迷时期，因此他们的股票可能会随着经济变化而暴跌和飙升。</blockquote> Cyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.<blockquote>出于类似的原因，从银行到石油生产商再到非必需消费品销售商，无论大小周期性股票今年的表现都优于大盘。与公用事业或消费必需品公司相比，他们看到了经济回暖时的巨大好处。</blockquote> Where the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”<blockquote>现在市场的走向还不太清楚。德美利证券首席市场策略师JJ Kinahan表示：“我们正处于十字路口。”“每个人都在试图弄清楚接下来会发生什么。其中一部分是观望。”</blockquote> Stocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.<blockquote>股市缺乏大量上涨动力。公司已经完成了第四季度的收益报告，对疫苗的预期不会好到哪里去，政府支撑经济的支出也将下降，至少按年计算是这样。拜登政府提出的2万亿美元基础设施支出将跨越八年，相当于每年2500亿美元。</blockquote> And while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.<blockquote>尽管经济消息可能会继续改善，但反弹可能已经见顶。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师迈克·威尔逊在一份报告中写道，经济可能会“个人收入、采购经理人指数和GDP的变化速度放缓”。</blockquote> Meanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&amp;P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.<blockquote>与此同时，股市已经反映了大部分积极消息，因为估值很高。标普500股票的平均市盈率是来年预期每股收益的22倍，而华尔街的一些策略师在对该指数做出预测时假设的市盈率是20倍。</blockquote> It would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.<blockquote>如果估值回到20倍也就不足为奇了，这意味着除非盈利增长超过预期，否则股市几乎不会上涨。尤其如此，因为安全政府债务的收益率正在上升，使得债券作为替代方案更具吸引力。</blockquote> The yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.<blockquote>10年期国债收益率已从年初的0.91%攀升至周三的1.72%。预计今年将接近2%。</blockquote> Earnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&amp;P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.<blockquote>花旗集团策略师的一项调查显示，预计到2022年，盈利将继续强劲增长，但估值下行压力使许多基金经理预计今年标准普尔指数走势基本持平。</blockquote> Still, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.<blockquote>尽管如此，今年晚些时候发布的收益报告可能会包含积极的惊喜。瑞士信贷最近一份报告的数据显示，收入增长往往是国内生产总值增长的两倍左右。市场普遍预期今年GDP将增长7%左右，因此收入将增长14%左右，而不是FactSet数据显示华尔街预测的9%。</blockquote> Higher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&amp;P 500—may have peaked.<blockquote>更高的收入增长意味着更高的盈利增长，以及股票的持续上涨。一种反驳观点是，所谓的盈利预测上调幅度——即评级对标普500各行业公司利润的影响程度——可能已经见顶。</blockquote> A chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师威尔逊发布的一份研究报告中的图表显示，广度最近达到了2018年和2010年的水平。在这两种情况下，广度都迅速急剧下降，更多公司的盈利预测被下调。投资者可能会惊喜地看到盈利预期从这里上升，但一些数据表明他们不应该指望这一点。</blockquote> Fortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.<blockquote>幸运的是，小盘价值股的近期盈利增长更强劲，估值也更可容忍。无论盈利预测是上升还是下降，它们的表现都可能继续优于大盘股。</blockquote> Now is the time to be picky.<blockquote>现在是挑剔的时候了。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-04-01 15:57\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nStocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.<blockquote>股市第一季度表现强劲，但上涨步伐可能会放缓。虽然投资者不一定应该纾困，但他们应该变得更加有选择性。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.<blockquote>今年前三个月，标普500上涨5.8%。有利因素很多：Covid-19疫苗接种速度加快，而数万亿美元的政府支出支撑了需求。</blockquote> The economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.<blockquote>经济正在从2020年封锁造成的损害中迅速反弹。ADP周三公布的数据显示，美国3月份私营部门新增就业岗位517,000个，为9月份以来的最高总数。1月份零售额比12月份高出5%。</blockquote> The economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.<blockquote>经济反弹解释了罗素2000指数今年年初上涨13%的原因。小市值公司（例如罗素指数中的公司）的盈利波动往往比大公司大得多。</blockquote> Because they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.<blockquote>由于他们规模较小，他们发现在困难时期更难削减成本，因此当经济恶化时，他们的收入下降得更严重。另一方面，当情况改善时，利润会增加。此外，他们获得资本的机会相对有限，这使得他们更难度过经济低迷时期，因此他们的股票可能会随着经济变化而暴跌和飙升。</blockquote> Cyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.<blockquote>出于类似的原因，从银行到石油生产商再到非必需消费品销售商，无论大小周期性股票今年的表现都优于大盘。与公用事业或消费必需品公司相比，他们看到了经济回暖时的巨大好处。</blockquote> Where the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”<blockquote>现在市场的走向还不太清楚。德美利证券首席市场策略师JJ Kinahan表示：“我们正处于十字路口。”“每个人都在试图弄清楚接下来会发生什么。其中一部分是观望。”</blockquote> Stocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.<blockquote>股市缺乏大量上涨动力。公司已经完成了第四季度的收益报告，对疫苗的预期不会好到哪里去，政府支撑经济的支出也将下降，至少按年计算是这样。拜登政府提出的2万亿美元基础设施支出将跨越八年，相当于每年2500亿美元。</blockquote> And while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.<blockquote>尽管经济消息可能会继续改善，但反弹可能已经见顶。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师迈克·威尔逊在一份报告中写道，经济可能会“个人收入、采购经理人指数和GDP的变化速度放缓”。</blockquote> Meanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&amp;P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.<blockquote>与此同时，股市已经反映了大部分积极消息，因为估值很高。标普500股票的平均市盈率是来年预期每股收益的22倍，而华尔街的一些策略师在对该指数做出预测时假设的市盈率是20倍。</blockquote> It would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.<blockquote>如果估值回到20倍也就不足为奇了，这意味着除非盈利增长超过预期，否则股市几乎不会上涨。尤其如此，因为安全政府债务的收益率正在上升，使得债券作为替代方案更具吸引力。</blockquote> The yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.<blockquote>10年期国债收益率已从年初的0.91%攀升至周三的1.72%。预计今年将接近2%。</blockquote> Earnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&amp;P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.<blockquote>花旗集团策略师的一项调查显示，预计到2022年，盈利将继续强劲增长，但估值下行压力使许多基金经理预计今年标准普尔指数走势基本持平。</blockquote> Still, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.<blockquote>尽管如此，今年晚些时候发布的收益报告可能会包含积极的惊喜。瑞士信贷最近一份报告的数据显示，收入增长往往是国内生产总值增长的两倍左右。市场普遍预期今年GDP将增长7%左右，因此收入将增长14%左右，而不是FactSet数据显示华尔街预测的9%。</blockquote> Higher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&amp;P 500—may have peaked.<blockquote>更高的收入增长意味着更高的盈利增长，以及股票的持续上涨。一种反驳观点是，所谓的盈利预测上调幅度——即评级对标普500各行业公司利润的影响程度——可能已经见顶。</blockquote> A chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师威尔逊发布的一份研究报告中的图表显示，广度最近达到了2018年和2010年的水平。在这两种情况下，广度都迅速急剧下降，更多公司的盈利预测被下调。投资者可能会惊喜地看到盈利预期从这里上升，但一些数据表明他们不应该指望这一点。</blockquote> Fortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.<blockquote>幸运的是，小盘价值股的近期盈利增长更强劲，估值也更可容忍。无论盈利预测是上升还是下降，它们的表现都可能继续优于大盘股。</blockquote> Now is the time to be picky.<blockquote>现在是挑剔的时候了。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-had-a-good-quarter-significant-gains-are-less-likely-now-51617219322?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-had-a-good-quarter-significant-gains-are-less-likely-now-51617219322?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127042118","content_text":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.\nThe S&P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.\nThe economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.\nThe economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.\nBecause they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.\nCyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.\nWhere the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”\nStocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.\nAnd while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.\nMeanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.\nIt would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.\nThe yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.\nEarnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.\nStill, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.\nHigher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&P 500—may have peaked.\nA chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.\nFortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.\nNow is the time to be picky.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":357608714,"gmtCreate":1617265133438,"gmtModify":1634521732749,"author":{"id":"3576325295778787","authorId":"3576325295778787","name":"HOTBE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f535d0d25c5b9833a0f75cd652fbbcd","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3576325295778787","idStr":"3576325295778787"},"htmlText":"Obviously!","listText":"Obviously!","text":"Obviously!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357608714","repostId":1127042118,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127042118","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617263854,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127042118?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-01 15:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127042118","media":"Barron's","summary":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors ","content":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.<blockquote>股市第一季度表现强劲，但上涨步伐可能会放缓。虽然投资者不一定应该纾困，但他们应该变得更加有选择性。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.<blockquote>今年前三个月，标普500上涨5.8%。有利因素很多：Covid-19疫苗接种速度加快，而数万亿美元的政府支出支撑了需求。</blockquote> The economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.<blockquote>经济正在从2020年封锁造成的损害中迅速反弹。ADP周三公布的数据显示，美国3月份私营部门新增就业岗位517,000个，为9月份以来的最高总数。1月份零售额比12月份高出5%。</blockquote> The economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.<blockquote>经济反弹解释了罗素2000指数今年年初上涨13%的原因。小市值公司（例如罗素指数中的公司）的盈利波动往往比大公司大得多。</blockquote> Because they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.<blockquote>由于他们规模较小，他们发现在困难时期更难削减成本，因此当经济恶化时，他们的收入下降得更严重。另一方面，当情况改善时，利润会增加。此外，他们获得资本的机会相对有限，这使得他们更难度过经济低迷时期，因此他们的股票可能会随着经济变化而暴跌和飙升。</blockquote> Cyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.<blockquote>出于类似的原因，从银行到石油生产商再到非必需消费品销售商，无论大小周期性股票今年的表现都优于大盘。与公用事业或消费必需品公司相比，他们看到了经济回暖时的巨大好处。</blockquote> Where the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”<blockquote>现在市场的走向还不太清楚。德美利证券首席市场策略师JJ Kinahan表示：“我们正处于十字路口。”“每个人都在试图弄清楚接下来会发生什么。其中一部分是观望。”</blockquote> Stocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.<blockquote>股市缺乏大量上涨动力。公司已经完成了第四季度的收益报告，对疫苗的预期不会好到哪里去，政府支撑经济的支出也将下降，至少按年计算是这样。拜登政府提出的2万亿美元基础设施支出将跨越八年，相当于每年2500亿美元。</blockquote> And while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.<blockquote>尽管经济消息可能会继续改善，但反弹可能已经见顶。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师迈克·威尔逊在一份报告中写道，经济可能会“个人收入、采购经理人指数和GDP的变化速度放缓”。</blockquote> Meanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&amp;P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.<blockquote>与此同时，股市已经反映了大部分积极消息，因为估值很高。标普500股票的平均市盈率是来年预期每股收益的22倍，而华尔街的一些策略师在对该指数做出预测时假设的市盈率是20倍。</blockquote> It would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.<blockquote>如果估值回到20倍也就不足为奇了，这意味着除非盈利增长超过预期，否则股市几乎不会上涨。尤其如此，因为安全政府债务的收益率正在上升，使得债券作为替代方案更具吸引力。</blockquote> The yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.<blockquote>10年期国债收益率已从年初的0.91%攀升至周三的1.72%。预计今年将接近2%。</blockquote> Earnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&amp;P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.<blockquote>花旗集团策略师的一项调查显示，预计到2022年，盈利将继续强劲增长，但估值下行压力使许多基金经理预计今年标准普尔指数走势基本持平。</blockquote> Still, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.<blockquote>尽管如此，今年晚些时候发布的收益报告可能会包含积极的惊喜。瑞士信贷最近一份报告的数据显示，收入增长往往是国内生产总值增长的两倍左右。市场普遍预期今年GDP将增长7%左右，因此收入将增长14%左右，而不是FactSet数据显示华尔街预测的9%。</blockquote> Higher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&amp;P 500—may have peaked.<blockquote>更高的收入增长意味着更高的盈利增长，以及股票的持续上涨。一种反驳观点是，所谓的盈利预测上调幅度——即评级对标普500各行业公司利润的影响程度——可能已经见顶。</blockquote> A chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师威尔逊发布的一份研究报告中的图表显示，广度最近达到了2018年和2010年的水平。在这两种情况下，广度都迅速急剧下降，更多公司的盈利预测被下调。投资者可能会惊喜地看到盈利预期从这里上升，但一些数据表明他们不应该指望这一点。</blockquote> Fortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.<blockquote>幸运的是，小盘价值股的近期盈利增长更强劲，估值也更可容忍。无论盈利预测是上升还是下降，它们的表现都可能继续优于大盘股。</blockquote> Now is the time to be picky.<blockquote>现在是挑剔的时候了。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-04-01 15:57\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nStocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.<blockquote>股市第一季度表现强劲，但上涨步伐可能会放缓。虽然投资者不一定应该纾困，但他们应该变得更加有选择性。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.<blockquote>今年前三个月，标普500上涨5.8%。有利因素很多：Covid-19疫苗接种速度加快，而数万亿美元的政府支出支撑了需求。</blockquote> The economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.<blockquote>经济正在从2020年封锁造成的损害中迅速反弹。ADP周三公布的数据显示，美国3月份私营部门新增就业岗位517,000个，为9月份以来的最高总数。1月份零售额比12月份高出5%。</blockquote> The economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.<blockquote>经济反弹解释了罗素2000指数今年年初上涨13%的原因。小市值公司（例如罗素指数中的公司）的盈利波动往往比大公司大得多。</blockquote> Because they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.<blockquote>由于他们规模较小，他们发现在困难时期更难削减成本，因此当经济恶化时，他们的收入下降得更严重。另一方面，当情况改善时，利润会增加。此外，他们获得资本的机会相对有限，这使得他们更难度过经济低迷时期，因此他们的股票可能会随着经济变化而暴跌和飙升。</blockquote> Cyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.<blockquote>出于类似的原因，从银行到石油生产商再到非必需消费品销售商，无论大小周期性股票今年的表现都优于大盘。与公用事业或消费必需品公司相比，他们看到了经济回暖时的巨大好处。</blockquote> Where the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”<blockquote>现在市场的走向还不太清楚。德美利证券首席市场策略师JJ Kinahan表示：“我们正处于十字路口。”“每个人都在试图弄清楚接下来会发生什么。其中一部分是观望。”</blockquote> Stocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.<blockquote>股市缺乏大量上涨动力。公司已经完成了第四季度的收益报告，对疫苗的预期不会好到哪里去，政府支撑经济的支出也将下降，至少按年计算是这样。拜登政府提出的2万亿美元基础设施支出将跨越八年，相当于每年2500亿美元。</blockquote> And while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.<blockquote>尽管经济消息可能会继续改善，但反弹可能已经见顶。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师迈克·威尔逊在一份报告中写道，经济可能会“个人收入、采购经理人指数和GDP的变化速度放缓”。</blockquote> Meanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&amp;P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.<blockquote>与此同时，股市已经反映了大部分积极消息，因为估值很高。标普500股票的平均市盈率是来年预期每股收益的22倍，而华尔街的一些策略师在对该指数做出预测时假设的市盈率是20倍。</blockquote> It would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.<blockquote>如果估值回到20倍也就不足为奇了，这意味着除非盈利增长超过预期，否则股市几乎不会上涨。尤其如此，因为安全政府债务的收益率正在上升，使得债券作为替代方案更具吸引力。</blockquote> The yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.<blockquote>10年期国债收益率已从年初的0.91%攀升至周三的1.72%。预计今年将接近2%。</blockquote> Earnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&amp;P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.<blockquote>花旗集团策略师的一项调查显示，预计到2022年，盈利将继续强劲增长，但估值下行压力使许多基金经理预计今年标准普尔指数走势基本持平。</blockquote> Still, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.<blockquote>尽管如此，今年晚些时候发布的收益报告可能会包含积极的惊喜。瑞士信贷最近一份报告的数据显示，收入增长往往是国内生产总值增长的两倍左右。市场普遍预期今年GDP将增长7%左右，因此收入将增长14%左右，而不是FactSet数据显示华尔街预测的9%。</blockquote> Higher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&amp;P 500—may have peaked.<blockquote>更高的收入增长意味着更高的盈利增长，以及股票的持续上涨。一种反驳观点是，所谓的盈利预测上调幅度——即评级对标普500各行业公司利润的影响程度——可能已经见顶。</blockquote> A chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师威尔逊发布的一份研究报告中的图表显示，广度最近达到了2018年和2010年的水平。在这两种情况下，广度都迅速急剧下降，更多公司的盈利预测被下调。投资者可能会惊喜地看到盈利预期从这里上升，但一些数据表明他们不应该指望这一点。</blockquote> Fortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.<blockquote>幸运的是，小盘价值股的近期盈利增长更强劲，估值也更可容忍。无论盈利预测是上升还是下降，它们的表现都可能继续优于大盘股。</blockquote> Now is the time to be picky.<blockquote>现在是挑剔的时候了。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-had-a-good-quarter-significant-gains-are-less-likely-now-51617219322?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-had-a-good-quarter-significant-gains-are-less-likely-now-51617219322?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127042118","content_text":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.\nThe S&P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.\nThe economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.\nThe economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.\nBecause they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.\nCyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.\nWhere the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”\nStocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.\nAnd while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.\nMeanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.\nIt would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.\nThe yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.\nEarnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.\nStill, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.\nHigher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&P 500—may have peaked.\nA chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.\nFortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.\nNow is the time to be picky.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3938475,"gmtCreate":1617270355185,"gmtModify":1635745514472,"authorId":3551655093075927,"author":{"id":3551655093075927,"idStr":"3551655093075927","authorId":3551655093075927,"name":"KLS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60fe00969bbce4cfecf0d17a38c77628","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":357608714,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"buy","text":"buy","html":"buy"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":357877832,"gmtCreate":1617264708326,"gmtModify":1634521735004,"author":{"id":"3560317116794073","authorId":"3560317116794073","name":"Sotong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4134f9028acb2ac5cdc398748f5e795a","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3560317116794073","idStr":"3560317116794073"},"htmlText":"like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"like and comment&nbsp;","text":"like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357877832","repostId":1127042118,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127042118","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617263854,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127042118?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-01 15:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127042118","media":"Barron's","summary":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors ","content":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.<blockquote>股市第一季度表现强劲，但上涨步伐可能会放缓。虽然投资者不一定应该纾困，但他们应该变得更加有选择性。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.<blockquote>今年前三个月，标普500上涨5.8%。有利因素很多：Covid-19疫苗接种速度加快，而数万亿美元的政府支出支撑了需求。</blockquote> The economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.<blockquote>经济正在从2020年封锁造成的损害中迅速反弹。ADP周三公布的数据显示，美国3月份私营部门新增就业岗位517,000个，为9月份以来的最高总数。1月份零售额比12月份高出5%。</blockquote> The economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.<blockquote>经济反弹解释了罗素2000指数今年年初上涨13%的原因。小市值公司（例如罗素指数中的公司）的盈利波动往往比大公司大得多。</blockquote> Because they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.<blockquote>由于他们规模较小，他们发现在困难时期更难削减成本，因此当经济恶化时，他们的收入下降得更严重。另一方面，当情况改善时，利润会增加。此外，他们获得资本的机会相对有限，这使得他们更难度过经济低迷时期，因此他们的股票可能会随着经济变化而暴跌和飙升。</blockquote> Cyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.<blockquote>出于类似的原因，从银行到石油生产商再到非必需消费品销售商，无论大小周期性股票今年的表现都优于大盘。与公用事业或消费必需品公司相比，他们看到了经济回暖时的巨大好处。</blockquote> Where the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”<blockquote>现在市场的走向还不太清楚。德美利证券首席市场策略师JJ Kinahan表示：“我们正处于十字路口。”“每个人都在试图弄清楚接下来会发生什么。其中一部分是观望。”</blockquote> Stocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.<blockquote>股市缺乏大量上涨动力。公司已经完成了第四季度的收益报告，对疫苗的预期不会好到哪里去，政府支撑经济的支出也将下降，至少按年计算是这样。拜登政府提出的2万亿美元基础设施支出将跨越八年，相当于每年2500亿美元。</blockquote> And while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.<blockquote>尽管经济消息可能会继续改善，但反弹可能已经见顶。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师迈克·威尔逊在一份报告中写道，经济可能会“个人收入、采购经理人指数和GDP的变化速度放缓”。</blockquote> Meanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&amp;P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.<blockquote>与此同时，股市已经反映了大部分积极消息，因为估值很高。标普500股票的平均市盈率是来年预期每股收益的22倍，而华尔街的一些策略师在对该指数做出预测时假设的市盈率是20倍。</blockquote> It would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.<blockquote>如果估值回到20倍也就不足为奇了，这意味着除非盈利增长超过预期，否则股市几乎不会上涨。尤其如此，因为安全政府债务的收益率正在上升，使得债券作为替代方案更具吸引力。</blockquote> The yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.<blockquote>10年期国债收益率已从年初的0.91%攀升至周三的1.72%。预计今年将接近2%。</blockquote> Earnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&amp;P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.<blockquote>花旗集团策略师的一项调查显示，预计到2022年，盈利将继续强劲增长，但估值下行压力使许多基金经理预计今年标准普尔指数走势基本持平。</blockquote> Still, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.<blockquote>尽管如此，今年晚些时候发布的收益报告可能会包含积极的惊喜。瑞士信贷最近一份报告的数据显示，收入增长往往是国内生产总值增长的两倍左右。市场普遍预期今年GDP将增长7%左右，因此收入将增长14%左右，而不是FactSet数据显示华尔街预测的9%。</blockquote> Higher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&amp;P 500—may have peaked.<blockquote>更高的收入增长意味着更高的盈利增长，以及股票的持续上涨。一种反驳观点是，所谓的盈利预测上调幅度——即评级对标普500各行业公司利润的影响程度——可能已经见顶。</blockquote> A chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师威尔逊发布的一份研究报告中的图表显示，广度最近达到了2018年和2010年的水平。在这两种情况下，广度都迅速急剧下降，更多公司的盈利预测被下调。投资者可能会惊喜地看到盈利预期从这里上升，但一些数据表明他们不应该指望这一点。</blockquote> Fortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.<blockquote>幸运的是，小盘价值股的近期盈利增长更强劲，估值也更可容忍。无论盈利预测是上升还是下降，它们的表现都可能继续优于大盘股。</blockquote> Now is the time to be picky.<blockquote>现在是挑剔的时候了。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-04-01 15:57\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nStocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.<blockquote>股市第一季度表现强劲，但上涨步伐可能会放缓。虽然投资者不一定应该纾困，但他们应该变得更加有选择性。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.<blockquote>今年前三个月，标普500上涨5.8%。有利因素很多：Covid-19疫苗接种速度加快，而数万亿美元的政府支出支撑了需求。</blockquote> The economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.<blockquote>经济正在从2020年封锁造成的损害中迅速反弹。ADP周三公布的数据显示，美国3月份私营部门新增就业岗位517,000个，为9月份以来的最高总数。1月份零售额比12月份高出5%。</blockquote> The economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.<blockquote>经济反弹解释了罗素2000指数今年年初上涨13%的原因。小市值公司（例如罗素指数中的公司）的盈利波动往往比大公司大得多。</blockquote> Because they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.<blockquote>由于他们规模较小，他们发现在困难时期更难削减成本，因此当经济恶化时，他们的收入下降得更严重。另一方面，当情况改善时，利润会增加。此外，他们获得资本的机会相对有限，这使得他们更难度过经济低迷时期，因此他们的股票可能会随着经济变化而暴跌和飙升。</blockquote> Cyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.<blockquote>出于类似的原因，从银行到石油生产商再到非必需消费品销售商，无论大小周期性股票今年的表现都优于大盘。与公用事业或消费必需品公司相比，他们看到了经济回暖时的巨大好处。</blockquote> Where the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”<blockquote>现在市场的走向还不太清楚。德美利证券首席市场策略师JJ Kinahan表示：“我们正处于十字路口。”“每个人都在试图弄清楚接下来会发生什么。其中一部分是观望。”</blockquote> Stocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.<blockquote>股市缺乏大量上涨动力。公司已经完成了第四季度的收益报告，对疫苗的预期不会好到哪里去，政府支撑经济的支出也将下降，至少按年计算是这样。拜登政府提出的2万亿美元基础设施支出将跨越八年，相当于每年2500亿美元。</blockquote> And while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.<blockquote>尽管经济消息可能会继续改善，但反弹可能已经见顶。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师迈克·威尔逊在一份报告中写道，经济可能会“个人收入、采购经理人指数和GDP的变化速度放缓”。</blockquote> Meanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&amp;P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.<blockquote>与此同时，股市已经反映了大部分积极消息，因为估值很高。标普500股票的平均市盈率是来年预期每股收益的22倍，而华尔街的一些策略师在对该指数做出预测时假设的市盈率是20倍。</blockquote> It would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.<blockquote>如果估值回到20倍也就不足为奇了，这意味着除非盈利增长超过预期，否则股市几乎不会上涨。尤其如此，因为安全政府债务的收益率正在上升，使得债券作为替代方案更具吸引力。</blockquote> The yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.<blockquote>10年期国债收益率已从年初的0.91%攀升至周三的1.72%。预计今年将接近2%。</blockquote> Earnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&amp;P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.<blockquote>花旗集团策略师的一项调查显示，预计到2022年，盈利将继续强劲增长，但估值下行压力使许多基金经理预计今年标准普尔指数走势基本持平。</blockquote> Still, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.<blockquote>尽管如此，今年晚些时候发布的收益报告可能会包含积极的惊喜。瑞士信贷最近一份报告的数据显示，收入增长往往是国内生产总值增长的两倍左右。市场普遍预期今年GDP将增长7%左右，因此收入将增长14%左右，而不是FactSet数据显示华尔街预测的9%。</blockquote> Higher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&amp;P 500—may have peaked.<blockquote>更高的收入增长意味着更高的盈利增长，以及股票的持续上涨。一种反驳观点是，所谓的盈利预测上调幅度——即评级对标普500各行业公司利润的影响程度——可能已经见顶。</blockquote> A chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师威尔逊发布的一份研究报告中的图表显示，广度最近达到了2018年和2010年的水平。在这两种情况下，广度都迅速急剧下降，更多公司的盈利预测被下调。投资者可能会惊喜地看到盈利预期从这里上升，但一些数据表明他们不应该指望这一点。</blockquote> Fortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.<blockquote>幸运的是，小盘价值股的近期盈利增长更强劲，估值也更可容忍。无论盈利预测是上升还是下降，它们的表现都可能继续优于大盘股。</blockquote> Now is the time to be picky.<blockquote>现在是挑剔的时候了。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-had-a-good-quarter-significant-gains-are-less-likely-now-51617219322?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-had-a-good-quarter-significant-gains-are-less-likely-now-51617219322?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127042118","content_text":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.\nThe S&P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.\nThe economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.\nThe economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.\nBecause they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.\nCyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.\nWhere the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”\nStocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.\nAnd while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.\nMeanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.\nIt would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.\nThe yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.\nEarnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.\nStill, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.\nHigher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&P 500—may have peaked.\nA chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.\nFortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.\nNow is the time to be picky.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3938469,"gmtCreate":1617270319262,"gmtModify":1635745515006,"authorId":3573472992263411,"author":{"id":3573472992263411,"idStr":"3573472992263411","authorId":3573472992263411,"name":"Huathk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43c7168c646d9ea6805194ed0003f1cc","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":357877832,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Gd","text":"Gd","html":"Gd"},{"id":3938474,"gmtCreate":1617270348327,"gmtModify":1635745514580,"authorId":3551655093075927,"author":{"id":3551655093075927,"idStr":"3551655093075927","authorId":3551655093075927,"name":"KLS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60fe00969bbce4cfecf0d17a38c77628","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":357877832,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"buy","text":"buy","html":"buy"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":357876813,"gmtCreate":1617264449932,"gmtModify":1634521736981,"author":{"id":"3560204717545571","authorId":"3560204717545571","name":"Kok","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efc25bb5380f85af49509ed68d9a3d8f","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3560204717545571","idStr":"3560204717545571"},"htmlText":"Please like n comment on my post. Tks!","listText":"Please like n comment on my post. Tks!","text":"Please like n comment on my post. Tks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357876813","repostId":1127042118,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127042118","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617263854,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127042118?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-01 15:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127042118","media":"Barron's","summary":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors ","content":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.<blockquote>股市第一季度表现强劲，但上涨步伐可能会放缓。虽然投资者不一定应该纾困，但他们应该变得更加有选择性。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.<blockquote>今年前三个月，标普500上涨5.8%。有利因素很多：Covid-19疫苗接种速度加快，而数万亿美元的政府支出支撑了需求。</blockquote> The economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.<blockquote>经济正在从2020年封锁造成的损害中迅速反弹。ADP周三公布的数据显示，美国3月份私营部门新增就业岗位517,000个，为9月份以来的最高总数。1月份零售额比12月份高出5%。</blockquote> The economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.<blockquote>经济反弹解释了罗素2000指数今年年初上涨13%的原因。小市值公司（例如罗素指数中的公司）的盈利波动往往比大公司大得多。</blockquote> Because they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.<blockquote>由于他们规模较小，他们发现在困难时期更难削减成本，因此当经济恶化时，他们的收入下降得更严重。另一方面，当情况改善时，利润会增加。此外，他们获得资本的机会相对有限，这使得他们更难度过经济低迷时期，因此他们的股票可能会随着经济变化而暴跌和飙升。</blockquote> Cyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.<blockquote>出于类似的原因，从银行到石油生产商再到非必需消费品销售商，无论大小周期性股票今年的表现都优于大盘。与公用事业或消费必需品公司相比，他们看到了经济回暖时的巨大好处。</blockquote> Where the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”<blockquote>现在市场的走向还不太清楚。德美利证券首席市场策略师JJ Kinahan表示：“我们正处于十字路口。”“每个人都在试图弄清楚接下来会发生什么。其中一部分是观望。”</blockquote> Stocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.<blockquote>股市缺乏大量上涨动力。公司已经完成了第四季度的收益报告，对疫苗的预期不会好到哪里去，政府支撑经济的支出也将下降，至少按年计算是这样。拜登政府提出的2万亿美元基础设施支出将跨越八年，相当于每年2500亿美元。</blockquote> And while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.<blockquote>尽管经济消息可能会继续改善，但反弹可能已经见顶。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师迈克·威尔逊在一份报告中写道，经济可能会“个人收入、采购经理人指数和GDP的变化速度放缓”。</blockquote> Meanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&amp;P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.<blockquote>与此同时，股市已经反映了大部分积极消息，因为估值很高。标普500股票的平均市盈率是来年预期每股收益的22倍，而华尔街的一些策略师在对该指数做出预测时假设的市盈率是20倍。</blockquote> It would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.<blockquote>如果估值回到20倍也就不足为奇了，这意味着除非盈利增长超过预期，否则股市几乎不会上涨。尤其如此，因为安全政府债务的收益率正在上升，使得债券作为替代方案更具吸引力。</blockquote> The yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.<blockquote>10年期国债收益率已从年初的0.91%攀升至周三的1.72%。预计今年将接近2%。</blockquote> Earnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&amp;P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.<blockquote>花旗集团策略师的一项调查显示，预计到2022年，盈利将继续强劲增长，但估值下行压力使许多基金经理预计今年标准普尔指数走势基本持平。</blockquote> Still, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.<blockquote>尽管如此，今年晚些时候发布的收益报告可能会包含积极的惊喜。瑞士信贷最近一份报告的数据显示，收入增长往往是国内生产总值增长的两倍左右。市场普遍预期今年GDP将增长7%左右，因此收入将增长14%左右，而不是FactSet数据显示华尔街预测的9%。</blockquote> Higher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&amp;P 500—may have peaked.<blockquote>更高的收入增长意味着更高的盈利增长，以及股票的持续上涨。一种反驳观点是，所谓的盈利预测上调幅度——即评级对标普500各行业公司利润的影响程度——可能已经见顶。</blockquote> A chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师威尔逊发布的一份研究报告中的图表显示，广度最近达到了2018年和2010年的水平。在这两种情况下，广度都迅速急剧下降，更多公司的盈利预测被下调。投资者可能会惊喜地看到盈利预期从这里上升，但一些数据表明他们不应该指望这一点。</blockquote> Fortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.<blockquote>幸运的是，小盘价值股的近期盈利增长更强劲，估值也更可容忍。无论盈利预测是上升还是下降，它们的表现都可能继续优于大盘股。</blockquote> Now is the time to be picky.<blockquote>现在是挑剔的时候了。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-04-01 15:57\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nStocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.<blockquote>股市第一季度表现强劲，但上涨步伐可能会放缓。虽然投资者不一定应该纾困，但他们应该变得更加有选择性。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.<blockquote>今年前三个月，标普500上涨5.8%。有利因素很多：Covid-19疫苗接种速度加快，而数万亿美元的政府支出支撑了需求。</blockquote> The economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.<blockquote>经济正在从2020年封锁造成的损害中迅速反弹。ADP周三公布的数据显示，美国3月份私营部门新增就业岗位517,000个，为9月份以来的最高总数。1月份零售额比12月份高出5%。</blockquote> The economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.<blockquote>经济反弹解释了罗素2000指数今年年初上涨13%的原因。小市值公司（例如罗素指数中的公司）的盈利波动往往比大公司大得多。</blockquote> Because they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.<blockquote>由于他们规模较小，他们发现在困难时期更难削减成本，因此当经济恶化时，他们的收入下降得更严重。另一方面，当情况改善时，利润会增加。此外，他们获得资本的机会相对有限，这使得他们更难度过经济低迷时期，因此他们的股票可能会随着经济变化而暴跌和飙升。</blockquote> Cyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.<blockquote>出于类似的原因，从银行到石油生产商再到非必需消费品销售商，无论大小周期性股票今年的表现都优于大盘。与公用事业或消费必需品公司相比，他们看到了经济回暖时的巨大好处。</blockquote> Where the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”<blockquote>现在市场的走向还不太清楚。德美利证券首席市场策略师JJ Kinahan表示：“我们正处于十字路口。”“每个人都在试图弄清楚接下来会发生什么。其中一部分是观望。”</blockquote> Stocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.<blockquote>股市缺乏大量上涨动力。公司已经完成了第四季度的收益报告，对疫苗的预期不会好到哪里去，政府支撑经济的支出也将下降，至少按年计算是这样。拜登政府提出的2万亿美元基础设施支出将跨越八年，相当于每年2500亿美元。</blockquote> And while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.<blockquote>尽管经济消息可能会继续改善，但反弹可能已经见顶。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师迈克·威尔逊在一份报告中写道，经济可能会“个人收入、采购经理人指数和GDP的变化速度放缓”。</blockquote> Meanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&amp;P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.<blockquote>与此同时，股市已经反映了大部分积极消息，因为估值很高。标普500股票的平均市盈率是来年预期每股收益的22倍，而华尔街的一些策略师在对该指数做出预测时假设的市盈率是20倍。</blockquote> It would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.<blockquote>如果估值回到20倍也就不足为奇了，这意味着除非盈利增长超过预期，否则股市几乎不会上涨。尤其如此，因为安全政府债务的收益率正在上升，使得债券作为替代方案更具吸引力。</blockquote> The yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.<blockquote>10年期国债收益率已从年初的0.91%攀升至周三的1.72%。预计今年将接近2%。</blockquote> Earnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&amp;P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.<blockquote>花旗集团策略师的一项调查显示，预计到2022年，盈利将继续强劲增长，但估值下行压力使许多基金经理预计今年标准普尔指数走势基本持平。</blockquote> Still, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.<blockquote>尽管如此，今年晚些时候发布的收益报告可能会包含积极的惊喜。瑞士信贷最近一份报告的数据显示，收入增长往往是国内生产总值增长的两倍左右。市场普遍预期今年GDP将增长7%左右，因此收入将增长14%左右，而不是FactSet数据显示华尔街预测的9%。</blockquote> Higher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&amp;P 500—may have peaked.<blockquote>更高的收入增长意味着更高的盈利增长，以及股票的持续上涨。一种反驳观点是，所谓的盈利预测上调幅度——即评级对标普500各行业公司利润的影响程度——可能已经见顶。</blockquote> A chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师威尔逊发布的一份研究报告中的图表显示，广度最近达到了2018年和2010年的水平。在这两种情况下，广度都迅速急剧下降，更多公司的盈利预测被下调。投资者可能会惊喜地看到盈利预期从这里上升，但一些数据表明他们不应该指望这一点。</blockquote> Fortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.<blockquote>幸运的是，小盘价值股的近期盈利增长更强劲，估值也更可容忍。无论盈利预测是上升还是下降，它们的表现都可能继续优于大盘股。</blockquote> Now is the time to be picky.<blockquote>现在是挑剔的时候了。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-had-a-good-quarter-significant-gains-are-less-likely-now-51617219322?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-had-a-good-quarter-significant-gains-are-less-likely-now-51617219322?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127042118","content_text":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.\nThe S&P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.\nThe economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.\nThe economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.\nBecause they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.\nCyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.\nWhere the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”\nStocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.\nAnd while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.\nMeanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.\nIt would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.\nThe yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.\nEarnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.\nStill, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.\nHigher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&P 500—may have peaked.\nA chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.\nFortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.\nNow is the time to be picky.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3937703,"gmtCreate":1617264587988,"gmtModify":1635745553804,"authorId":3567482716620513,"author":{"id":3567482716620513,"idStr":"3567482716620513","authorId":3567482716620513,"name":"Otahman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbd099972f177a5bb9c4f8a5666b4a77","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":357876813,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"DoNe help me too","text":"DoNe help me too","html":"DoNe help me too"},{"id":3937730,"gmtCreate":1617264720753,"gmtModify":1635745553047,"authorId":3560317116794073,"author":{"id":3560317116794073,"idStr":"3560317116794073","authorId":3560317116794073,"name":"Sotong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4134f9028acb2ac5cdc398748f5e795a","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":357876813,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"comment back","text":"comment back","html":"comment back"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":357871345,"gmtCreate":1617264353687,"gmtModify":1631893814604,"author":{"id":"3566564994472271","authorId":"3566564994472271","name":"Alvinwong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3566564994472271","idStr":"3566564994472271"},"htmlText":"Like and comment pls","listText":"Like and comment pls","text":"Like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357871345","repostId":1127042118,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127042118","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617263854,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127042118?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-01 15:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127042118","media":"Barron's","summary":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors ","content":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.<blockquote>股市第一季度表现强劲，但上涨步伐可能会放缓。虽然投资者不一定应该纾困，但他们应该变得更加有选择性。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.<blockquote>今年前三个月，标普500上涨5.8%。有利因素很多：Covid-19疫苗接种速度加快，而数万亿美元的政府支出支撑了需求。</blockquote> The economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.<blockquote>经济正在从2020年封锁造成的损害中迅速反弹。ADP周三公布的数据显示，美国3月份私营部门新增就业岗位517,000个，为9月份以来的最高总数。1月份零售额比12月份高出5%。</blockquote> The economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.<blockquote>经济反弹解释了罗素2000指数今年年初上涨13%的原因。小市值公司（例如罗素指数中的公司）的盈利波动往往比大公司大得多。</blockquote> Because they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.<blockquote>由于他们规模较小，他们发现在困难时期更难削减成本，因此当经济恶化时，他们的收入下降得更严重。另一方面，当情况改善时，利润会增加。此外，他们获得资本的机会相对有限，这使得他们更难度过经济低迷时期，因此他们的股票可能会随着经济变化而暴跌和飙升。</blockquote> Cyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.<blockquote>出于类似的原因，从银行到石油生产商再到非必需消费品销售商，无论大小周期性股票今年的表现都优于大盘。与公用事业或消费必需品公司相比，他们看到了经济回暖时的巨大好处。</blockquote> Where the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”<blockquote>现在市场的走向还不太清楚。德美利证券首席市场策略师JJ Kinahan表示：“我们正处于十字路口。”“每个人都在试图弄清楚接下来会发生什么。其中一部分是观望。”</blockquote> Stocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.<blockquote>股市缺乏大量上涨动力。公司已经完成了第四季度的收益报告，对疫苗的预期不会好到哪里去，政府支撑经济的支出也将下降，至少按年计算是这样。拜登政府提出的2万亿美元基础设施支出将跨越八年，相当于每年2500亿美元。</blockquote> And while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.<blockquote>尽管经济消息可能会继续改善，但反弹可能已经见顶。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师迈克·威尔逊在一份报告中写道，经济可能会“个人收入、采购经理人指数和GDP的变化速度放缓”。</blockquote> Meanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&amp;P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.<blockquote>与此同时，股市已经反映了大部分积极消息，因为估值很高。标普500股票的平均市盈率是来年预期每股收益的22倍，而华尔街的一些策略师在对该指数做出预测时假设的市盈率是20倍。</blockquote> It would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.<blockquote>如果估值回到20倍也就不足为奇了，这意味着除非盈利增长超过预期，否则股市几乎不会上涨。尤其如此，因为安全政府债务的收益率正在上升，使得债券作为替代方案更具吸引力。</blockquote> The yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.<blockquote>10年期国债收益率已从年初的0.91%攀升至周三的1.72%。预计今年将接近2%。</blockquote> Earnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&amp;P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.<blockquote>花旗集团策略师的一项调查显示，预计到2022年，盈利将继续强劲增长，但估值下行压力使许多基金经理预计今年标准普尔指数走势基本持平。</blockquote> Still, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.<blockquote>尽管如此，今年晚些时候发布的收益报告可能会包含积极的惊喜。瑞士信贷最近一份报告的数据显示，收入增长往往是国内生产总值增长的两倍左右。市场普遍预期今年GDP将增长7%左右，因此收入将增长14%左右，而不是FactSet数据显示华尔街预测的9%。</blockquote> Higher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&amp;P 500—may have peaked.<blockquote>更高的收入增长意味着更高的盈利增长，以及股票的持续上涨。一种反驳观点是，所谓的盈利预测上调幅度——即评级对标普500各行业公司利润的影响程度——可能已经见顶。</blockquote> A chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师威尔逊发布的一份研究报告中的图表显示，广度最近达到了2018年和2010年的水平。在这两种情况下，广度都迅速急剧下降，更多公司的盈利预测被下调。投资者可能会惊喜地看到盈利预期从这里上升，但一些数据表明他们不应该指望这一点。</blockquote> Fortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.<blockquote>幸运的是，小盘价值股的近期盈利增长更强劲，估值也更可容忍。无论盈利预测是上升还是下降，它们的表现都可能继续优于大盘股。</blockquote> Now is the time to be picky.<blockquote>现在是挑剔的时候了。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks Had a Good First Quarter. Significant Gains Are Less Likely Now<blockquote>股市第一季度表现良好。现在大幅上涨的可能性较小</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-04-01 15:57\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nStocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.<blockquote>股市第一季度表现强劲，但上涨步伐可能会放缓。虽然投资者不一定应该纾困，但他们应该变得更加有选择性。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.<blockquote>今年前三个月，标普500上涨5.8%。有利因素很多：Covid-19疫苗接种速度加快，而数万亿美元的政府支出支撑了需求。</blockquote> The economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.<blockquote>经济正在从2020年封锁造成的损害中迅速反弹。ADP周三公布的数据显示，美国3月份私营部门新增就业岗位517,000个，为9月份以来的最高总数。1月份零售额比12月份高出5%。</blockquote> The economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.<blockquote>经济反弹解释了罗素2000指数今年年初上涨13%的原因。小市值公司（例如罗素指数中的公司）的盈利波动往往比大公司大得多。</blockquote> Because they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.<blockquote>由于他们规模较小，他们发现在困难时期更难削减成本，因此当经济恶化时，他们的收入下降得更严重。另一方面，当情况改善时，利润会增加。此外，他们获得资本的机会相对有限，这使得他们更难度过经济低迷时期，因此他们的股票可能会随着经济变化而暴跌和飙升。</blockquote> Cyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.<blockquote>出于类似的原因，从银行到石油生产商再到非必需消费品销售商，无论大小周期性股票今年的表现都优于大盘。与公用事业或消费必需品公司相比，他们看到了经济回暖时的巨大好处。</blockquote> Where the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”<blockquote>现在市场的走向还不太清楚。德美利证券首席市场策略师JJ Kinahan表示：“我们正处于十字路口。”“每个人都在试图弄清楚接下来会发生什么。其中一部分是观望。”</blockquote> Stocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.<blockquote>股市缺乏大量上涨动力。公司已经完成了第四季度的收益报告，对疫苗的预期不会好到哪里去，政府支撑经济的支出也将下降，至少按年计算是这样。拜登政府提出的2万亿美元基础设施支出将跨越八年，相当于每年2500亿美元。</blockquote> And while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.<blockquote>尽管经济消息可能会继续改善，但反弹可能已经见顶。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师迈克·威尔逊在一份报告中写道，经济可能会“个人收入、采购经理人指数和GDP的变化速度放缓”。</blockquote> Meanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&amp;P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.<blockquote>与此同时，股市已经反映了大部分积极消息，因为估值很高。标普500股票的平均市盈率是来年预期每股收益的22倍，而华尔街的一些策略师在对该指数做出预测时假设的市盈率是20倍。</blockquote> It would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.<blockquote>如果估值回到20倍也就不足为奇了，这意味着除非盈利增长超过预期，否则股市几乎不会上涨。尤其如此，因为安全政府债务的收益率正在上升，使得债券作为替代方案更具吸引力。</blockquote> The yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.<blockquote>10年期国债收益率已从年初的0.91%攀升至周三的1.72%。预计今年将接近2%。</blockquote> Earnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&amp;P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.<blockquote>花旗集团策略师的一项调查显示，预计到2022年，盈利将继续强劲增长，但估值下行压力使许多基金经理预计今年标准普尔指数走势基本持平。</blockquote> Still, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.<blockquote>尽管如此，今年晚些时候发布的收益报告可能会包含积极的惊喜。瑞士信贷最近一份报告的数据显示，收入增长往往是国内生产总值增长的两倍左右。市场普遍预期今年GDP将增长7%左右，因此收入将增长14%左右，而不是FactSet数据显示华尔街预测的9%。</blockquote> Higher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&amp;P 500—may have peaked.<blockquote>更高的收入增长意味着更高的盈利增长，以及股票的持续上涨。一种反驳观点是，所谓的盈利预测上调幅度——即评级对标普500各行业公司利润的影响程度——可能已经见顶。</blockquote> A chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.<blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师威尔逊发布的一份研究报告中的图表显示，广度最近达到了2018年和2010年的水平。在这两种情况下，广度都迅速急剧下降，更多公司的盈利预测被下调。投资者可能会惊喜地看到盈利预期从这里上升，但一些数据表明他们不应该指望这一点。</blockquote> Fortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.<blockquote>幸运的是，小盘价值股的近期盈利增长更强劲，估值也更可容忍。无论盈利预测是上升还是下降，它们的表现都可能继续优于大盘股。</blockquote> Now is the time to be picky.<blockquote>现在是挑剔的时候了。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-had-a-good-quarter-significant-gains-are-less-likely-now-51617219322?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-had-a-good-quarter-significant-gains-are-less-likely-now-51617219322?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127042118","content_text":"Stocks posted a strong first quarter, but the pace of gains is likely to slow down. While investors shouldn’t necessarily bail out, they should become more selective.\nThe S&P 500 rallied 5.8% for the first three months of the year. Tailwinds were plentiful: Vaccinations for Covid-19 speeded up, while trillions of dollars of government spending shored up demand.\nThe economy is quickly bouncing back from the damage that lockdowns dealt it in 2020. Figures released Wednesday by ADP show the U.S. added 517,000 private-sector jobs in March, the highest total since September. Retail sales were 5% higher in January than in December.\nThe economic rebound explains the Russell 2000’s 13% run to start the year. Smaller-capitalization companies, such as those in the Russell index, often experience much larger swings in earnings than big companies.\nBecause they are smaller, they find it harder to cut costs when times are tough, so their earnings fall harder when the economy sours. The flip side is that profits take off when conditions improve. Plus, their relatively limited access to capital makes it harder for them to weather downturns, so their stocks can plunge and surge as the economy changes.\nCyclical stocks both small and large, ranging from banks to oil producers to sellers of discretionary consumer goods, have been outperformers this year for a similar reason. They see an outsize benefit when the economy reheats, compared with utilities or companies in consumer staples.\nWhere the market goes now is less clear. “We’re at a crossroads,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Everyone’s trying to figure out what’s next. Part of it is a wait and see.”\nStocks lack substantial fuel for gains. Companies have finished reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, expectations about vaccines can’t get much better, and government spending to prop up the economy is poised to decline, at least on an annual basis. The $2 trillion of infrastructure spending that the Biden administration has proposed would span eight years, equating to $250 billion a year.\nAnd while the economic news is likely to keep improving, the rebound has likely peaked. The economy will likely see “slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP,” wrote Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.\nMeanwhile, stocks already reflect much of the positive news, in that valuations are high. The average stock in the S&P 500 trades at 22 times the per-share earnings expected for the coming year, while some strategists on Wall Street assume a multiple of 20 times in making their forecasts for the index.\nIt would be no surprise if valuations head back toward 20 times, which would mean few gains for stocks unless earnings rise more than expected. That is especially true because yields on safe government debt are rising, making bonds more appealing as an alternative.\nThe yield on 10-year Treasury debt has climbed from 0.91% as of the start of the year to 1.72% on Wednesday. It is expected to approach 2% this year.\nEarnings are expected to keep growing at a strong clip through 2022, but the downward pressure on valuations leaves many fund managers expecting an essentially flat move on the S&P for the year, according to a survey from Citigroup strategists.\nStill, earnings reports to be released later in the year could contain positive surprises. Data from a recent Credit Suisse note show that revenue growth often beats increases in gross domestic product by about twofold. The consensus expectation is that GDP will increase by about 7% this year, so revenue would grow around 14%, not the 9% that FactSet data shows Wall Street has penciled in.\nHigher revenue growth implies higher earnings growth, and continued gains for stocks. A counterargument is that so-called breadth in upward revisions to earnings forecasts—the extent to which calls are rising for the profits of companies across the various sectors in the S&P 500—may have peaked.\nA chart in a research report published by Wilson, the Morgan Stanley strategist, shows that breadth recently hit a level last seen in 2018 and 2010. In both instances, breadth quickly fell precipitously, with forecast earnings for more companies revised lower. Investors may be pleasantly surprised to see earnings estimates rise from here, but some data indicate they shouldn’t count on that.\nFortunately, small-cap value stocks have stronger near-term earnings growth and are trading at more tolerable valuations. They may keep outperforming large-caps regardless of whether forecasts for earnings rise or fall.\nNow is the time to be picky.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3937681,"gmtCreate":1617264468173,"gmtModify":1631893814605,"authorId":3560204717545571,"author":{"id":3560204717545571,"idStr":"3560204717545571","authorId":3560204717545571,"name":"Kok","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efc25bb5380f85af49509ed68d9a3d8f","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":357871345,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"please reply to my comment. tks!","text":"please reply to my comment. tks!","html":"please reply to my comment. tks!"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":54,"commentSize":17,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}