史诗级屠杀，华尔街怎么看？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

史诗级屠杀，华尔街怎么看？

华尔街见闻2020-03-13

周四，道琼斯指数暴跌2352点，百分比跌幅达到10%，创下1987年黑色星期一以来最大单日跌幅，标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数均跌超9%。欧洲STOXX 600指数创纪录最大跌幅。黄金、原油、比特币全线暴跌。重要资产除美债外，大多未能幸免周四这场史诗级的屠杀，似乎又回到了当年那个“现金为王”的情景。作为投资者的你，怕了吗？稳住，看看历史怎么走，美联储怎么做，分析师怎么说。 01、回顾百年历史 ...

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carol86
·2020-03-13
喝醋和渡村附近
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薛定谔丶猫
·2020-03-13
意大利股市都停止做空了
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薛定谔丶猫
·2020-03-13
今年有点凉！
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心！如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-03-13
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日月神剑
·2020-03-13
华尔街跑的比谁都快
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2
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学而不思则罔思而不学则殆
·2020-03-13
A股都受到不小的影响
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2
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心！如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-03-13
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林夕清辉
·2020-03-13
来真格的了
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心！如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-03-13
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真的英雄
·2020-03-13
暂停税收？很傻很天真
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虎头纹
·2020-03-13
大撒比！再掩盖一下非要症状罢了。
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Lucky525
·2020-03-13
我在A股，也恐慌
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虎头纹
·2020-03-13
还在继续打针吃药？看来已经无可救药了只能大撒比。
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锄禾日当午
·2020-03-13
特朗普=特不靠谱
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Kostin团队本周三预计牛市终结，未来两个季度企业盈利会下滑至少12%。\n瑞银David Lefkowitz团队预计标普500企业今年盈利增速为0，将标普500指数的目标区间从3400点降至3200点。不过指出，如果年中出现衰退，标普500的EPS可能会降到145美元，那么年底的目标点位只有2500点。\nRBC资本市场Lori Calvasina下调标普500的EPS 9美元至165美元。不过她对全年走势没有很悲观，给标普500指数的目标点位是3279点。她指出，当前市场很担心盈利增长，和危机后的2011年和2018年很像，预计市场在今年晚些时候会强力反弹。\n04、溃败的信心\nLeuthold集团首席投资官Doug Ramsey表示，市场暴跌不仅反映出对未来增长的不看好，也可能会伤及美国人民的信心和支出。他的公司上周缩减了股市持仓。\n富国银行投资研究所Scott Wren表示，焦虑的投资者感到不安，因为冠状病毒的蔓延围绕着消费者支出的发展。最终的负面结果就是消费者都在家待着不出去消费。之前一直是消费者支出在驱动美国经济。\n05、美股什么时候能抄底？小胡子：跌30%！\n上周，安联首席经济顾问Mohamed El-Erian就曾表示，美股本轮回调没有完成。周四，他称要从上月高点回落30%才算触底。即便触底，美股也不会迅速自底部复苏。美股会回来的，市场会转折，只不过前路艰难。市场不会V型，市场会走U型或者L型。\nEl-Erian表示，全球经济受冠状病毒影响，会步入衰退。这里的问题是，经济一旦衰退，再让它起来并不容易，需要让人们重新参与进来，经济上受到的伤害是持续的。不过相比经济，金融市场会反应的更快。\n经历周四美股暴跌，市场距离El-Erian 30%的目标，越来越近了。\n06、别光看美股，美债也有麻烦\n美银策略分析师Marc Cabana发表了令人震惊的报告，称美债市场运行的不正常了。他表示，美债市场运行的不太正常了，可能需要美国财政部或是美联储在近期快速和大规模地用政策回应。这表明，美银认为，美债这个全球流动性最好的市场，出了些问题。上日，美债期货意外大跌就是一个证明：通常在避险环境下，美债应该上涨，而美债实际下挫，这意味着对于流动性的担忧占了主因。\n在美银看来，只有两件事情能让美债市场恢复正常。一是美联储重启美债QE。二是美国财政部进行回购操作。美银认为，第二种方法可能会更好。\n07、市场的命脉——流动性\n摩根士丹利分析师Christopher Metli认为，当前市场的资金紧张越来越严重，现金变得很宝贵，这对市场和经济来说形成了恶性循环。虽然2008年式样的金融危机不太可能，但是市场日益需求流动性，和财政上的行动。除非政策制定者提供市场所需的流动性，否则下跌不会停止。被动投资者还没有大规模地卖出持仓，只有当他们卖掉，市场才能找到一个稳固的底。\n08、想靠黄金白银避险？很傻很天真\n周四，黄金白银全线大跌。这是近期来，不止第一次伴随着美股崩盘，贵金属丧失避险属性。High Ridge Futures金属交易主管David Meger表示，投资者抛售贵金属为股票提供资金。\n贵金属周四普跌，是急于套现和轻度恐慌型的举动。我们所看到的是市场参与者和投资者不分青红皂白地出售每种资产类别，人们出售黄金和白银头寸是为了为股票头寸或其他情况提供资金。”\n09、抄中国作业？前高盛老大喊话全力以赴社交隔离\n前高盛CEO Lloyd Blankfein表示，在经历了上轮金融危机后，我们对风险管理有了那么一些理解。当前需要进行良好的风险管理：全力以赴进行社交隔离，给那些经济上最脆弱的群体（个人和小企业）提供金融援助。不要猜测未来怎么样。如果三个月后回头看，认为我们当前的做法反应过度，那他会很高兴。\n10、美国CNBC知名主持人Jim 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