Will the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

Will the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?

Vantage Point2021-03-04

The U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for the market to understand. So far down the road during the pandemic, the Fed came to the rescue. It ...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

LGdoWonder
·2021-03-04
The stimulus package already priced in and market now is running ahead of the curve. The Fed new a new policy tool.
回复
2
举报
Drielzy
·2021-03-04
Fed should not hike till 2023 IMO
回复
点赞
举报
obg
·2021-03-04
Like and comment pls
回复
2
举报
收起
- Drielzy:
  Comment
  2021-03-04
  回复
  举报
BnK
·2021-03-04
Omg
回复
1
举报
Muan
·2021-03-04
Sooner?
回复
1
举报
收起
- Jovin82:
  yup
  2021-03-04
  回复
  举报
JASLIM
·2021-03-04
Really?
回复
2
举报
收起
- JASLIM:
  lol
  2021-03-04
  回复
  举报
- KCNG:
  Lol
  2021-03-04
  回复
  举报
- KCNG:
  Yes
  2021-03-04
  回复
  举报
查看更多 1 条评论
Lightman95
·2021-03-04
Hopefully not :( coin comment, like respond ^_^
回复
点赞
举报
LawrenceSG
·2021-03-04
Please...Slow down
回复
2
举报
收起
- BnK:
  Home
  2021-03-04
  回复
  举报
CH88
·2021-03-04
Slow down the hike please. Like and comment, thank you.
回复
1
举报
收起
- Shannonywt:
  Ok
  2021-03-04
  回复
  举报
- 股神徒孙:
  😔
  2021-03-04
  回复
  举报
Naux
·2021-03-04
Oohh
回复
点赞
举报
JonL
·2021-03-04
It looks that the possibly is quite high once majority of the population are vaccinated and travel resumes.
回复
点赞
举报
Matchapie
·2021-03-04
mmmmm
回复
1
举报
收起
- Kate88:
  Nice
  2021-03-04
  回复
  举报

热议股票

7x24

全部

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1125642026?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2021-03-04 20:07","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"1125642026","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"Will the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?","media":"Vantage Point","content":"<div>\nThe U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for the market to understand. So far down the road during the pandemic, the Fed came to the rescue. It ...\n\n<a href=\"https://vantagepointtrading.com/news/will-the-fed-hike-sooner-than-expected/\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1614859619341","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-04 20:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://vantagepointtrading.com/news/will-the-fed-hike-sooner-than-expected/>Vantage Point</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nThe U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for the market to understand. So far down the road during the pandemic, the Fed came to the rescue. It ...\n\n<a href=\"https://vantagepointtrading.com/news/will-the-fed-hike-sooner-than-expected/\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":null,"symbol_name":null,"start_time":0,"source_url":"https://vantagepointtrading.com/news/will-the-fed-hike-sooner-than-expected/","article_id":"1125642026","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125642026","pubTimestamp":1614859626,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1614859619341","name":"Vantage Point"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"The U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for t","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"vantagepointtrading.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{},"translate_title":"美联储会比预期更早加息吗？","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"The U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for the market to understand. So far down the road during the pandemic, the Fed came to the rescue. It eased monetary conditions and also urged Congress to deliver fiscal stimulus.\nIts words were heard, and the Fed’s actions eased the world’s desperate need for dollars seen in the spring of 2020. Fast forward to March 2021; the Fed is in a tough spot.\nOn the one hand, with every stock market decline, the market participants expect the Fed to intervene. However, the stock market is still close to all-time highs, and it is unlikely that the Fed will keep intervening verbally, especially because easing is still ongoing and about to increase.\nOn the other hand, the market starts pricing in a stronger economic recovery. Such a recovery should bring tightening from the Fed, and the market already implies that we will see a first rate hike in 2022. More precisely, the market priced in over 80% odds for a twenty-five basis points rate hike in 2022.\nForward-Looking Markets Pressuring the Fed\nOn the same note as in the previous paragraph, the same market prices in another two rate hikes in 2023 and, by the end of 2025, a tightening of monetary conditions of over 125 basis points. This translates into the federal funds rate rising from close to zero currently to 1.25% three years from now.\nThe problem comes from the current conditions. The markets tend to have a forward-looking attitude, and the pricing of assets in the present is based on such an attitude. Because of that, the current monetary conditions appear inappropriate, and the Fed will have a hard time explaining why.\nFor example, the fiscal easing will continue. The months ahead will bring a renewed round of fiscal stimulus, as $1.9 trillion in fiscal aid is about to be unleashed. This is easing, but at the same time, the money will further fuel the economic recovery, and, in turn, more jobs will be created, and so on.\nMore easing comes from the U.S. Treasury as well, forced to unwind its general account at the Fed in the months ahead. Finally, more easing comes even from the Fed, as it keeps purchasing $120 billion a month.\nYet, traders and investors must understand these actions reflect current conditions. Also, all are priced in already.\nAs such, the rise in long-term yields is the one thing that matters. It points to sharp economic recovery, and more easing will not deter but fuel it.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":364543632,"gmtCreate":1614867499626,"gmtModify":1703482214165,"author":{"id":"3574573223146006","authorId":"3574573223146006","name":"LGdoWonder","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70da32ba22aa762f05eb07e4c5158c6a","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3574573223146006","authorIdStr":"3574573223146006"},"htmlText":"The stimulus package already priced in and market now is running ahead of the curve. The Fed new a new policy tool.","listText":"The stimulus package already priced in and market now is running ahead of the curve. The Fed new a new policy tool.","text":"The stimulus package already priced in and market now is running ahead of the curve. The Fed new a new policy tool.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364543632","repostId":1125642026,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125642026","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614859626,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1125642026?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-04 20:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?<blockquote>美联储会比预期更早加息吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125642026","media":"Vantage Point","summary":"The U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for t","content":"The U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for the market to understand. So far down the road during the pandemic, the Fed came to the rescue. It eased monetary conditions and also urged Congress to deliver fiscal stimulus.<blockquote>美联储陷入了困境，需要市场付出巨大的沟通努力才能理解。到目前为止，在疫情期间，美联储已经出手相救。它放松了货币条件，还敦促国会提供财政刺激。</blockquote> Its words were heard, and the Fed’s actions eased the world’s desperate need for dollars seen in the spring of 2020. Fast forward to March 2021; the Fed is in a tough spot.<blockquote>美联储的话被听到了，美联储的行动缓解了 2020 年春季世界对美元的迫切需求。快进到2021年3月；美联储处境艰难。</blockquote> On the one hand, with every stock market decline, the market participants expect the Fed to intervene. However, the stock market is still close to all-time highs, and it is unlikely that the Fed will keep intervening verbally, especially because easing is still ongoing and about to increase.<blockquote>一方面，随着股市的每一次下跌，市场参与者都期待美联储进行干预。然而，股市仍接近历史高点，美联储不太可能继续口头干预，特别是因为宽松仍在进行，并即将加码。</blockquote> On the other hand, the market starts pricing in a stronger economic recovery. Such a recovery should bring tightening from the Fed, and the market already implies that we will see a first rate hike in 2022. More precisely, the market priced in over 80% odds for a twenty-five basis points rate hike in 2022.<blockquote>另一方面，市场开始消化更强劲的经济复苏。这样的复苏应该会带来美联储的紧缩政策，市场已经暗示我们将在2022年看到首次加息。更准确地说，市场预计 2022 年加息 25 个基点的可能性超过 80%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bb0de592821a0233494cd8f9029d29e\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"571\">Forward-Looking Markets Pressuring the Fed<blockquote>前瞻性市场给美联储带来压力</blockquote> On the same note as in the previous paragraph, the same market prices in another two rate hikes in 2023 and, by the end of 2025, a tightening of monetary conditions of over 125 basis points. This translates into the federal funds rate rising from close to zero currently to 1.25% three years from now.<blockquote>与上一段相同，2023 年再加息两次，市场价格保持不变，到 2025 年底，货币条件收紧超过 125 个基点。这意味着联邦基金利率从目前的接近于零升至三年后的1.25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007096706cd8851d515cb583e75ff0b6\" tg-width=\"727\" tg-height=\"662\">The problem comes from the current conditions. The markets tend to have a forward-looking attitude, and the pricing of assets in the present is based on such an attitude. Because of that, the current monetary conditions appear inappropriate, and the Fed will have a hard time explaining why.<blockquote>问题来自于目前的条件。市场往往具有前瞻性的态度，目前的资产定价就是基于这种态度。正因为如此，当前的货币状况似乎不合适，美联储将很难解释原因。</blockquote> For example, the fiscal easing will continue. The months ahead will bring a renewed round of fiscal stimulus, as $1.9 trillion in fiscal aid is about to be unleashed. This is easing, but at the same time, the money will further fuel the economic recovery, and, in turn, more jobs will be created, and so on.<blockquote>例如，财政宽松将继续。未来几个月将迎来新一轮财政刺激，1.9万亿美元的财政援助即将释放。这是宽松，但与此同时，这笔钱将进一步推动经济复苏，进而创造更多就业机会，等等。</blockquote> More easing comes from the U.S. Treasury as well, forced to unwind its general account at the Fed in the months ahead. Finally, more easing comes even from the Fed, as it keeps purchasing $120 billion a month.<blockquote>美国财政部也采取了更多宽松政策，被迫在未来几个月解冻其在美联储的一般账户。最后，更多的宽松政策甚至来自美联储，因为它每月继续购买1200亿美元。</blockquote> Yet, traders and investors must understand these actions reflect current conditions. Also, all are priced in already.<blockquote>然而，交易者和投资者必须明白这些行动反映了当前情况。此外，所有这些都已经定价了。</blockquote> As such, the rise in long-term yields is the one thing that matters. It points to sharp economic recovery, and more easing will not deter but fuel it.<blockquote>因此，长期收益率的上升是唯一重要的事情。它表明经济将急剧复苏，更多的宽松政策不会阻止它，而是会助长它。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1614859619341","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?<blockquote>美联储会比预期更早加息吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?<blockquote>美联储会比预期更早加息吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nVantage Point2021-03-04 20:07\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for the market to understand. So far down the road during the pandemic, the Fed came to the rescue. It eased monetary conditions and also urged Congress to deliver fiscal stimulus.<blockquote>美联储陷入了困境，需要市场付出巨大的沟通努力才能理解。到目前为止，在疫情期间，美联储已经出手相救。它放松了货币条件，还敦促国会提供财政刺激。</blockquote> Its words were heard, and the Fed’s actions eased the world’s desperate need for dollars seen in the spring of 2020. Fast forward to March 2021; the Fed is in a tough spot.<blockquote>美联储的话被听到了，美联储的行动缓解了 2020 年春季世界对美元的迫切需求。快进到2021年3月；美联储处境艰难。</blockquote> On the one hand, with every stock market decline, the market participants expect the Fed to intervene. However, the stock market is still close to all-time highs, and it is unlikely that the Fed will keep intervening verbally, especially because easing is still ongoing and about to increase.<blockquote>一方面，随着股市的每一次下跌，市场参与者都期待美联储进行干预。然而，股市仍接近历史高点，美联储不太可能继续口头干预，特别是因为宽松仍在进行，并即将加码。</blockquote> On the other hand, the market starts pricing in a stronger economic recovery. Such a recovery should bring tightening from the Fed, and the market already implies that we will see a first rate hike in 2022. More precisely, the market priced in over 80% odds for a twenty-five basis points rate hike in 2022.<blockquote>另一方面，市场开始消化更强劲的经济复苏。这样的复苏应该会带来美联储的紧缩政策，市场已经暗示我们将在2022年看到首次加息。更准确地说，市场预计 2022 年加息 25 个基点的可能性超过 80%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bb0de592821a0233494cd8f9029d29e\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"571\">Forward-Looking Markets Pressuring the Fed<blockquote>前瞻性市场给美联储带来压力</blockquote> On the same note as in the previous paragraph, the same market prices in another two rate hikes in 2023 and, by the end of 2025, a tightening of monetary conditions of over 125 basis points. This translates into the federal funds rate rising from close to zero currently to 1.25% three years from now.<blockquote>与上一段相同，2023 年再加息两次，市场价格保持不变，到 2025 年底，货币条件收紧超过 125 个基点。这意味着联邦基金利率从目前的接近于零升至三年后的1.25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007096706cd8851d515cb583e75ff0b6\" tg-width=\"727\" tg-height=\"662\">The problem comes from the current conditions. The markets tend to have a forward-looking attitude, and the pricing of assets in the present is based on such an attitude. Because of that, the current monetary conditions appear inappropriate, and the Fed will have a hard time explaining why.<blockquote>问题来自于目前的条件。市场往往具有前瞻性的态度，目前的资产定价就是基于这种态度。正因为如此，当前的货币状况似乎不合适，美联储将很难解释原因。</blockquote> For example, the fiscal easing will continue. The months ahead will bring a renewed round of fiscal stimulus, as $1.9 trillion in fiscal aid is about to be unleashed. This is easing, but at the same time, the money will further fuel the economic recovery, and, in turn, more jobs will be created, and so on.<blockquote>例如，财政宽松将继续。未来几个月将迎来新一轮财政刺激，1.9万亿美元的财政援助即将释放。这是宽松，但与此同时，这笔钱将进一步推动经济复苏，进而创造更多就业机会，等等。</blockquote> More easing comes from the U.S. Treasury as well, forced to unwind its general account at the Fed in the months ahead. Finally, more easing comes even from the Fed, as it keeps purchasing $120 billion a month.<blockquote>美国财政部也采取了更多宽松政策，被迫在未来几个月解冻其在美联储的一般账户。最后，更多的宽松政策甚至来自美联储，因为它每月继续购买1200亿美元。</blockquote> Yet, traders and investors must understand these actions reflect current conditions. Also, all are priced in already.<blockquote>然而，交易者和投资者必须明白这些行动反映了当前情况。此外，所有这些都已经定价了。</blockquote> As such, the rise in long-term yields is the one thing that matters. It points to sharp economic recovery, and more easing will not deter but fuel it.<blockquote>因此，长期收益率的上升是唯一重要的事情。它表明经济将急剧复苏，更多的宽松政策不会阻止它，而是会助长它。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://vantagepointtrading.com/news/will-the-fed-hike-sooner-than-expected/\">Vantage Point</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://vantagepointtrading.com/news/will-the-fed-hike-sooner-than-expected/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125642026","content_text":"The U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for the market to understand. So far down the road during the pandemic, the Fed came to the rescue. It eased monetary conditions and also urged Congress to deliver fiscal stimulus.\nIts words were heard, and the Fed’s actions eased the world’s desperate need for dollars seen in the spring of 2020. Fast forward to March 2021; the Fed is in a tough spot.\nOn the one hand, with every stock market decline, the market participants expect the Fed to intervene. However, the stock market is still close to all-time highs, and it is unlikely that the Fed will keep intervening verbally, especially because easing is still ongoing and about to increase.\nOn the other hand, the market starts pricing in a stronger economic recovery. Such a recovery should bring tightening from the Fed, and the market already implies that we will see a first rate hike in 2022. More precisely, the market priced in over 80% odds for a twenty-five basis points rate hike in 2022.\nForward-Looking Markets Pressuring the Fed\nOn the same note as in the previous paragraph, the same market prices in another two rate hikes in 2023 and, by the end of 2025, a tightening of monetary conditions of over 125 basis points. This translates into the federal funds rate rising from close to zero currently to 1.25% three years from now.\nThe problem comes from the current conditions. The markets tend to have a forward-looking attitude, and the pricing of assets in the present is based on such an attitude. Because of that, the current monetary conditions appear inappropriate, and the Fed will have a hard time explaining why.\nFor example, the fiscal easing will continue. The months ahead will bring a renewed round of fiscal stimulus, as $1.9 trillion in fiscal aid is about to be unleashed. This is easing, but at the same time, the money will further fuel the economic recovery, and, in turn, more jobs will be created, and so on.\nMore easing comes from the U.S. Treasury as well, forced to unwind its general account at the Fed in the months ahead. Finally, more easing comes even from the Fed, as it keeps purchasing $120 billion a month.\nYet, traders and investors must understand these actions reflect current conditions. Also, all are priced in already.\nAs such, the rise in long-term yields is the one thing that matters. It points to sharp economic recovery, and more easing will not deter but fuel it.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":364528203,"gmtCreate":1614866105302,"gmtModify":1703482188876,"author":{"id":"3577878599108064","authorId":"3577878599108064","name":"Drielzy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/feed43808a6571de669b64ef929f5b93","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3577878599108064","authorIdStr":"3577878599108064"},"htmlText":"Fed should not hike till 2023 IMO","listText":"Fed should not hike till 2023 IMO","text":"Fed should not hike till 2023 IMO","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364528203","repostId":1125642026,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125642026","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614859626,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1125642026?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-04 20:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?<blockquote>美联储会比预期更早加息吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125642026","media":"Vantage Point","summary":"The U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for t","content":"The U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for the market to understand. So far down the road during the pandemic, the Fed came to the rescue. It eased monetary conditions and also urged Congress to deliver fiscal stimulus.<blockquote>美联储陷入了困境，需要市场付出巨大的沟通努力才能理解。到目前为止，在疫情期间，美联储已经出手相救。它放松了货币条件，还敦促国会提供财政刺激。</blockquote> Its words were heard, and the Fed’s actions eased the world’s desperate need for dollars seen in the spring of 2020. Fast forward to March 2021; the Fed is in a tough spot.<blockquote>美联储的话被听到了，美联储的行动缓解了 2020 年春季世界对美元的迫切需求。快进到2021年3月；美联储处境艰难。</blockquote> On the one hand, with every stock market decline, the market participants expect the Fed to intervene. However, the stock market is still close to all-time highs, and it is unlikely that the Fed will keep intervening verbally, especially because easing is still ongoing and about to increase.<blockquote>一方面，随着股市的每一次下跌，市场参与者都期待美联储进行干预。然而，股市仍接近历史高点，美联储不太可能继续口头干预，特别是因为宽松仍在进行，并即将加码。</blockquote> On the other hand, the market starts pricing in a stronger economic recovery. Such a recovery should bring tightening from the Fed, and the market already implies that we will see a first rate hike in 2022. More precisely, the market priced in over 80% odds for a twenty-five basis points rate hike in 2022.<blockquote>另一方面，市场开始消化更强劲的经济复苏。这样的复苏应该会带来美联储的紧缩政策，市场已经暗示我们将在2022年看到首次加息。更准确地说，市场预计 2022 年加息 25 个基点的可能性超过 80%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bb0de592821a0233494cd8f9029d29e\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"571\">Forward-Looking Markets Pressuring the Fed<blockquote>前瞻性市场给美联储带来压力</blockquote> On the same note as in the previous paragraph, the same market prices in another two rate hikes in 2023 and, by the end of 2025, a tightening of monetary conditions of over 125 basis points. This translates into the federal funds rate rising from close to zero currently to 1.25% three years from now.<blockquote>与上一段相同，2023 年再加息两次，市场价格保持不变，到 2025 年底，货币条件收紧超过 125 个基点。这意味着联邦基金利率从目前的接近于零升至三年后的1.25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007096706cd8851d515cb583e75ff0b6\" tg-width=\"727\" tg-height=\"662\">The problem comes from the current conditions. The markets tend to have a forward-looking attitude, and the pricing of assets in the present is based on such an attitude. Because of that, the current monetary conditions appear inappropriate, and the Fed will have a hard time explaining why.<blockquote>问题来自于目前的条件。市场往往具有前瞻性的态度，目前的资产定价就是基于这种态度。正因为如此，当前的货币状况似乎不合适，美联储将很难解释原因。</blockquote> For example, the fiscal easing will continue. The months ahead will bring a renewed round of fiscal stimulus, as $1.9 trillion in fiscal aid is about to be unleashed. This is easing, but at the same time, the money will further fuel the economic recovery, and, in turn, more jobs will be created, and so on.<blockquote>例如，财政宽松将继续。未来几个月将迎来新一轮财政刺激，1.9万亿美元的财政援助即将释放。这是宽松，但与此同时，这笔钱将进一步推动经济复苏，进而创造更多就业机会，等等。</blockquote> More easing comes from the U.S. Treasury as well, forced to unwind its general account at the Fed in the months ahead. Finally, more easing comes even from the Fed, as it keeps purchasing $120 billion a month.<blockquote>美国财政部也采取了更多宽松政策，被迫在未来几个月解冻其在美联储的一般账户。最后，更多的宽松政策甚至来自美联储，因为它每月继续购买1200亿美元。</blockquote> Yet, traders and investors must understand these actions reflect current conditions. Also, all are priced in already.<blockquote>然而，交易者和投资者必须明白这些行动反映了当前情况。此外，所有这些都已经定价了。</blockquote> As such, the rise in long-term yields is the one thing that matters. It points to sharp economic recovery, and more easing will not deter but fuel it.<blockquote>因此，长期收益率的上升是唯一重要的事情。它表明经济将急剧复苏，更多的宽松政策不会阻止它，而是会助长它。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1614859619341","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?<blockquote>美联储会比预期更早加息吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?<blockquote>美联储会比预期更早加息吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nVantage Point2021-03-04 20:07\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for the market to understand. So far down the road during the pandemic, the Fed came to the rescue. It eased monetary conditions and also urged Congress to deliver fiscal stimulus.<blockquote>美联储陷入了困境，需要市场付出巨大的沟通努力才能理解。到目前为止，在疫情期间，美联储已经出手相救。它放松了货币条件，还敦促国会提供财政刺激。</blockquote> Its words were heard, and the Fed’s actions eased the world’s desperate need for dollars seen in the spring of 2020. Fast forward to March 2021; the Fed is in a tough spot.<blockquote>美联储的话被听到了，美联储的行动缓解了 2020 年春季世界对美元的迫切需求。快进到2021年3月；美联储处境艰难。</blockquote> On the one hand, with every stock market decline, the market participants expect the Fed to intervene. However, the stock market is still close to all-time highs, and it is unlikely that the Fed will keep intervening verbally, especially because easing is still ongoing and about to increase.<blockquote>一方面，随着股市的每一次下跌，市场参与者都期待美联储进行干预。然而，股市仍接近历史高点，美联储不太可能继续口头干预，特别是因为宽松仍在进行，并即将加码。</blockquote> On the other hand, the market starts pricing in a stronger economic recovery. Such a recovery should bring tightening from the Fed, and the market already implies that we will see a first rate hike in 2022. More precisely, the market priced in over 80% odds for a twenty-five basis points rate hike in 2022.<blockquote>另一方面，市场开始消化更强劲的经济复苏。这样的复苏应该会带来美联储的紧缩政策，市场已经暗示我们将在2022年看到首次加息。更准确地说，市场预计 2022 年加息 25 个基点的可能性超过 80%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bb0de592821a0233494cd8f9029d29e\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"571\">Forward-Looking Markets Pressuring the Fed<blockquote>前瞻性市场给美联储带来压力</blockquote> On the same note as in the previous paragraph, the same market prices in another two rate hikes in 2023 and, by the end of 2025, a tightening of monetary conditions of over 125 basis points. This translates into the federal funds rate rising from close to zero currently to 1.25% three years from now.<blockquote>与上一段相同，2023 年再加息两次，市场价格保持不变，到 2025 年底，货币条件收紧超过 125 个基点。这意味着联邦基金利率从目前的接近于零升至三年后的1.25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007096706cd8851d515cb583e75ff0b6\" tg-width=\"727\" tg-height=\"662\">The problem comes from the current conditions. The markets tend to have a forward-looking attitude, and the pricing of assets in the present is based on such an attitude. Because of that, the current monetary conditions appear inappropriate, and the Fed will have a hard time explaining why.<blockquote>问题来自于目前的条件。市场往往具有前瞻性的态度，目前的资产定价就是基于这种态度。正因为如此，当前的货币状况似乎不合适，美联储将很难解释原因。</blockquote> For example, the fiscal easing will continue. The months ahead will bring a renewed round of fiscal stimulus, as $1.9 trillion in fiscal aid is about to be unleashed. This is easing, but at the same time, the money will further fuel the economic recovery, and, in turn, more jobs will be created, and so on.<blockquote>例如，财政宽松将继续。未来几个月将迎来新一轮财政刺激，1.9万亿美元的财政援助即将释放。这是宽松，但与此同时，这笔钱将进一步推动经济复苏，进而创造更多就业机会，等等。</blockquote> More easing comes from the U.S. Treasury as well, forced to unwind its general account at the Fed in the months ahead. Finally, more easing comes even from the Fed, as it keeps purchasing $120 billion a month.<blockquote>美国财政部也采取了更多宽松政策，被迫在未来几个月解冻其在美联储的一般账户。最后，更多的宽松政策甚至来自美联储，因为它每月继续购买1200亿美元。</blockquote> Yet, traders and investors must understand these actions reflect current conditions. Also, all are priced in already.<blockquote>然而，交易者和投资者必须明白这些行动反映了当前情况。此外，所有这些都已经定价了。</blockquote> As such, the rise in long-term yields is the one thing that matters. It points to sharp economic recovery, and more easing will not deter but fuel it.<blockquote>因此，长期收益率的上升是唯一重要的事情。它表明经济将急剧复苏，更多的宽松政策不会阻止它，而是会助长它。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://vantagepointtrading.com/news/will-the-fed-hike-sooner-than-expected/\">Vantage Point</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://vantagepointtrading.com/news/will-the-fed-hike-sooner-than-expected/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125642026","content_text":"The U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for the market to understand. So far down the road during the pandemic, the Fed came to the rescue. It eased monetary conditions and also urged Congress to deliver fiscal stimulus.\nIts words were heard, and the Fed’s actions eased the world’s desperate need for dollars seen in the spring of 2020. Fast forward to March 2021; the Fed is in a tough spot.\nOn the one hand, with every stock market decline, the market participants expect the Fed to intervene. However, the stock market is still close to all-time highs, and it is unlikely that the Fed will keep intervening verbally, especially because easing is still ongoing and about to increase.\nOn the other hand, the market starts pricing in a stronger economic recovery. Such a recovery should bring tightening from the Fed, and the market already implies that we will see a first rate hike in 2022. More precisely, the market priced in over 80% odds for a twenty-five basis points rate hike in 2022.\nForward-Looking Markets Pressuring the Fed\nOn the same note as in the previous paragraph, the same market prices in another two rate hikes in 2023 and, by the end of 2025, a tightening of monetary conditions of over 125 basis points. This translates into the federal funds rate rising from close to zero currently to 1.25% three years from now.\nThe problem comes from the current conditions. The markets tend to have a forward-looking attitude, and the pricing of assets in the present is based on such an attitude. Because of that, the current monetary conditions appear inappropriate, and the Fed will have a hard time explaining why.\nFor example, the fiscal easing will continue. The months ahead will bring a renewed round of fiscal stimulus, as $1.9 trillion in fiscal aid is about to be unleashed. This is easing, but at the same time, the money will further fuel the economic recovery, and, in turn, more jobs will be created, and so on.\nMore easing comes from the U.S. Treasury as well, forced to unwind its general account at the Fed in the months ahead. Finally, more easing comes even from the Fed, as it keeps purchasing $120 billion a month.\nYet, traders and investors must understand these actions reflect current conditions. Also, all are priced in already.\nAs such, the rise in long-term yields is the one thing that matters. It points to sharp economic recovery, and more easing will not deter but fuel it.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":364569625,"gmtCreate":1614865223967,"gmtModify":1703482171476,"author":{"id":"3574975152603668","authorId":"3574975152603668","name":"obg","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3574975152603668","authorIdStr":"3574975152603668"},"htmlText":"Like and comment pls&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment pls&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364569625","repostId":1125642026,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125642026","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614859626,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1125642026?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-04 20:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?<blockquote>美联储会比预期更早加息吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125642026","media":"Vantage Point","summary":"The U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for t","content":"The U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for the market to understand. So far down the road during the pandemic, the Fed came to the rescue. It eased monetary conditions and also urged Congress to deliver fiscal stimulus.<blockquote>美联储陷入了困境，需要市场付出巨大的沟通努力才能理解。到目前为止，在疫情期间，美联储已经出手相救。它放松了货币条件，还敦促国会提供财政刺激。</blockquote> Its words were heard, and the Fed’s actions eased the world’s desperate need for dollars seen in the spring of 2020. Fast forward to March 2021; the Fed is in a tough spot.<blockquote>美联储的话被听到了，美联储的行动缓解了 2020 年春季世界对美元的迫切需求。快进到2021年3月；美联储处境艰难。</blockquote> On the one hand, with every stock market decline, the market participants expect the Fed to intervene. However, the stock market is still close to all-time highs, and it is unlikely that the Fed will keep intervening verbally, especially because easing is still ongoing and about to increase.<blockquote>一方面，随着股市的每一次下跌，市场参与者都期待美联储进行干预。然而，股市仍接近历史高点，美联储不太可能继续口头干预，特别是因为宽松仍在进行，并即将加码。</blockquote> On the other hand, the market starts pricing in a stronger economic recovery. Such a recovery should bring tightening from the Fed, and the market already implies that we will see a first rate hike in 2022. More precisely, the market priced in over 80% odds for a twenty-five basis points rate hike in 2022.<blockquote>另一方面，市场开始消化更强劲的经济复苏。这样的复苏应该会带来美联储的紧缩政策，市场已经暗示我们将在2022年看到首次加息。更准确地说，市场预计 2022 年加息 25 个基点的可能性超过 80%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bb0de592821a0233494cd8f9029d29e\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"571\">Forward-Looking Markets Pressuring the Fed<blockquote>前瞻性市场给美联储带来压力</blockquote> On the same note as in the previous paragraph, the same market prices in another two rate hikes in 2023 and, by the end of 2025, a tightening of monetary conditions of over 125 basis points. This translates into the federal funds rate rising from close to zero currently to 1.25% three years from now.<blockquote>与上一段相同，2023 年再加息两次，市场价格保持不变，到 2025 年底，货币条件收紧超过 125 个基点。这意味着联邦基金利率从目前的接近于零升至三年后的1.25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007096706cd8851d515cb583e75ff0b6\" tg-width=\"727\" tg-height=\"662\">The problem comes from the current conditions. The markets tend to have a forward-looking attitude, and the pricing of assets in the present is based on such an attitude. Because of that, the current monetary conditions appear inappropriate, and the Fed will have a hard time explaining why.<blockquote>问题来自于目前的条件。市场往往具有前瞻性的态度，目前的资产定价就是基于这种态度。正因为如此，当前的货币状况似乎不合适，美联储将很难解释原因。</blockquote> For example, the fiscal easing will continue. The months ahead will bring a renewed round of fiscal stimulus, as $1.9 trillion in fiscal aid is about to be unleashed. This is easing, but at the same time, the money will further fuel the economic recovery, and, in turn, more jobs will be created, and so on.<blockquote>例如，财政宽松将继续。未来几个月将迎来新一轮财政刺激，1.9万亿美元的财政援助即将释放。这是宽松，但与此同时，这笔钱将进一步推动经济复苏，进而创造更多就业机会，等等。</blockquote> More easing comes from the U.S. Treasury as well, forced to unwind its general account at the Fed in the months ahead. Finally, more easing comes even from the Fed, as it keeps purchasing $120 billion a month.<blockquote>美国财政部也采取了更多宽松政策，被迫在未来几个月解冻其在美联储的一般账户。最后，更多的宽松政策甚至来自美联储，因为它每月继续购买1200亿美元。</blockquote> Yet, traders and investors must understand these actions reflect current conditions. Also, all are priced in already.<blockquote>然而，交易者和投资者必须明白这些行动反映了当前情况。此外，所有这些都已经定价了。</blockquote> As such, the rise in long-term yields is the one thing that matters. It points to sharp economic recovery, and more easing will not deter but fuel it.<blockquote>因此，长期收益率的上升是唯一重要的事情。它表明经济将急剧复苏，更多的宽松政策不会阻止它，而是会助长它。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1614859619341","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?<blockquote>美联储会比预期更早加息吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?<blockquote>美联储会比预期更早加息吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nVantage Point2021-03-04 20:07\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for the market to understand. So far down the road during the pandemic, the Fed came to the rescue. It eased monetary conditions and also urged Congress to deliver fiscal stimulus.<blockquote>美联储陷入了困境，需要市场付出巨大的沟通努力才能理解。到目前为止，在疫情期间，美联储已经出手相救。它放松了货币条件，还敦促国会提供财政刺激。</blockquote> Its words were heard, and the Fed’s actions eased the world’s desperate need for dollars seen in the spring of 2020. Fast forward to March 2021; the Fed is in a tough spot.<blockquote>美联储的话被听到了，美联储的行动缓解了 2020 年春季世界对美元的迫切需求。快进到2021年3月；美联储处境艰难。</blockquote> On the one hand, with every stock market decline, the market participants expect the Fed to intervene. However, the stock market is still close to all-time highs, and it is unlikely that the Fed will keep intervening verbally, especially because easing is still ongoing and about to increase.<blockquote>一方面，随着股市的每一次下跌，市场参与者都期待美联储进行干预。然而，股市仍接近历史高点，美联储不太可能继续口头干预，特别是因为宽松仍在进行，并即将加码。</blockquote> On the other hand, the market starts pricing in a stronger economic recovery. Such a recovery should bring tightening from the Fed, and the market already implies that we will see a first rate hike in 2022. More precisely, the market priced in over 80% odds for a twenty-five basis points rate hike in 2022.<blockquote>另一方面，市场开始消化更强劲的经济复苏。这样的复苏应该会带来美联储的紧缩政策，市场已经暗示我们将在2022年看到首次加息。更准确地说，市场预计 2022 年加息 25 个基点的可能性超过 80%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bb0de592821a0233494cd8f9029d29e\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"571\">Forward-Looking Markets Pressuring the Fed<blockquote>前瞻性市场给美联储带来压力</blockquote> On the same note as in the previous paragraph, the same market prices in another two rate hikes in 2023 and, by the end of 2025, a tightening of monetary conditions of over 125 basis points. This translates into the federal funds rate rising from close to zero currently to 1.25% three years from now.<blockquote>与上一段相同，2023 年再加息两次，市场价格保持不变，到 2025 年底，货币条件收紧超过 125 个基点。这意味着联邦基金利率从目前的接近于零升至三年后的1.25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007096706cd8851d515cb583e75ff0b6\" tg-width=\"727\" tg-height=\"662\">The problem comes from the current conditions. The markets tend to have a forward-looking attitude, and the pricing of assets in the present is based on such an attitude. Because of that, the current monetary conditions appear inappropriate, and the Fed will have a hard time explaining why.<blockquote>问题来自于目前的条件。市场往往具有前瞻性的态度，目前的资产定价就是基于这种态度。正因为如此，当前的货币状况似乎不合适，美联储将很难解释原因。</blockquote> For example, the fiscal easing will continue. The months ahead will bring a renewed round of fiscal stimulus, as $1.9 trillion in fiscal aid is about to be unleashed. This is easing, but at the same time, the money will further fuel the economic recovery, and, in turn, more jobs will be created, and so on.<blockquote>例如，财政宽松将继续。未来几个月将迎来新一轮财政刺激，1.9万亿美元的财政援助即将释放。这是宽松，但与此同时，这笔钱将进一步推动经济复苏，进而创造更多就业机会，等等。</blockquote> More easing comes from the U.S. Treasury as well, forced to unwind its general account at the Fed in the months ahead. Finally, more easing comes even from the Fed, as it keeps purchasing $120 billion a month.<blockquote>美国财政部也采取了更多宽松政策，被迫在未来几个月解冻其在美联储的一般账户。最后，更多的宽松政策甚至来自美联储，因为它每月继续购买1200亿美元。</blockquote> Yet, traders and investors must understand these actions reflect current conditions. Also, all are priced in already.<blockquote>然而，交易者和投资者必须明白这些行动反映了当前情况。此外，所有这些都已经定价了。</blockquote> As such, the rise in long-term yields is the one thing that matters. It points to sharp economic recovery, and more easing will not deter but fuel it.<blockquote>因此，长期收益率的上升是唯一重要的事情。它表明经济将急剧复苏，更多的宽松政策不会阻止它，而是会助长它。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://vantagepointtrading.com/news/will-the-fed-hike-sooner-than-expected/\">Vantage Point</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://vantagepointtrading.com/news/will-the-fed-hike-sooner-than-expected/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125642026","content_text":"The U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for the market to understand. So far down the road during the pandemic, the Fed came to the rescue. It eased monetary conditions and also urged Congress to deliver fiscal stimulus.\nIts words were heard, and the Fed’s actions eased the world’s desperate need for dollars seen in the spring of 2020. Fast forward to March 2021; the Fed is in a tough spot.\nOn the one hand, with every stock market decline, the market participants expect the Fed to intervene. However, the stock market is still close to all-time highs, and it is unlikely that the Fed will keep intervening verbally, especially because easing is still ongoing and about to increase.\nOn the other hand, the market starts pricing in a stronger economic recovery. Such a recovery should bring tightening from the Fed, and the market already implies that we will see a first rate hike in 2022. More precisely, the market priced in over 80% odds for a twenty-five basis points rate hike in 2022.\nForward-Looking Markets Pressuring the Fed\nOn the same note as in the previous paragraph, the same market prices in another two rate hikes in 2023 and, by the end of 2025, a tightening of monetary conditions of over 125 basis points. This translates into the federal funds rate rising from close to zero currently to 1.25% three years from now.\nThe problem comes from the current conditions. The markets tend to have a forward-looking attitude, and the pricing of assets in the present is based on such an attitude. Because of that, the current monetary conditions appear inappropriate, and the Fed will have a hard time explaining why.\nFor example, the fiscal easing will continue. The months ahead will bring a renewed round of fiscal stimulus, as $1.9 trillion in fiscal aid is about to be unleashed. This is easing, but at the same time, the money will further fuel the economic recovery, and, in turn, more jobs will be created, and so on.\nMore easing comes from the U.S. Treasury as well, forced to unwind its general account at the Fed in the months ahead. Finally, more easing comes even from the Fed, as it keeps purchasing $120 billion a month.\nYet, traders and investors must understand these actions reflect current conditions. Also, all are priced in already.\nAs such, the rise in long-term yields is the one thing that matters. It points to sharp economic recovery, and more easing will not deter but fuel it.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3715141,"gmtCreate":1614866077185,"gmtModify":1635758658107,"authorId":3577878599108064,"author":{"id":3577878599108064,"idStr":"3577878599108064","authorId":3577878599108064,"name":"Drielzy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/feed43808a6571de669b64ef929f5b93","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":364569625,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Comment","text":"Comment","html":"Comment"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":364518569,"gmtCreate":1614863939951,"gmtModify":1703482145631,"author":{"id":"3564049549732787","authorId":"3564049549732787","name":"BnK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/876c107eda4b06e1ce38ffe04defc4e5","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3564049549732787","authorIdStr":"3564049549732787"},"htmlText":"Omg","listText":"Omg","text":"Omg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364518569","repostId":1125642026,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125642026","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614859626,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1125642026?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-04 20:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?<blockquote>美联储会比预期更早加息吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125642026","media":"Vantage Point","summary":"The U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for t","content":"The U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for the market to understand. So far down the road during the pandemic, the Fed came to the rescue. It eased monetary conditions and also urged Congress to deliver fiscal stimulus.<blockquote>美联储陷入了困境，需要市场付出巨大的沟通努力才能理解。到目前为止，在疫情期间，美联储已经出手相救。它放松了货币条件，还敦促国会提供财政刺激。</blockquote> Its words were heard, and the Fed’s actions eased the world’s desperate need for dollars seen in the spring of 2020. Fast forward to March 2021; the Fed is in a tough spot.<blockquote>美联储的话被听到了，美联储的行动缓解了 2020 年春季世界对美元的迫切需求。快进到2021年3月；美联储处境艰难。</blockquote> On the one hand, with every stock market decline, the market participants expect the Fed to intervene. However, the stock market is still close to all-time highs, and it is unlikely that the Fed will keep intervening verbally, especially because easing is still ongoing and about to increase.<blockquote>一方面，随着股市的每一次下跌，市场参与者都期待美联储进行干预。然而，股市仍接近历史高点，美联储不太可能继续口头干预，特别是因为宽松仍在进行，并即将加码。</blockquote> On the other hand, the market starts pricing in a stronger economic recovery. Such a recovery should bring tightening from the Fed, and the market already implies that we will see a first rate hike in 2022. More precisely, the market priced in over 80% odds for a twenty-five basis points rate hike in 2022.<blockquote>另一方面，市场开始消化更强劲的经济复苏。这样的复苏应该会带来美联储的紧缩政策，市场已经暗示我们将在2022年看到首次加息。更准确地说，市场预计 2022 年加息 25 个基点的可能性超过 80%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bb0de592821a0233494cd8f9029d29e\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"571\">Forward-Looking Markets Pressuring the Fed<blockquote>前瞻性市场给美联储带来压力</blockquote> On the same note as in the previous paragraph, the same market prices in another two rate hikes in 2023 and, by the end of 2025, a tightening of monetary conditions of over 125 basis points. This translates into the federal funds rate rising from close to zero currently to 1.25% three years from now.<blockquote>与上一段相同，2023 年再加息两次，市场价格保持不变，到 2025 年底，货币条件收紧超过 125 个基点。这意味着联邦基金利率从目前的接近于零升至三年后的1.25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007096706cd8851d515cb583e75ff0b6\" tg-width=\"727\" tg-height=\"662\">The problem comes from the current conditions. The markets tend to have a forward-looking attitude, and the pricing of assets in the present is based on such an attitude. Because of that, the current monetary conditions appear inappropriate, and the Fed will have a hard time explaining why.<blockquote>问题来自于目前的条件。市场往往具有前瞻性的态度，目前的资产定价就是基于这种态度。正因为如此，当前的货币状况似乎不合适，美联储将很难解释原因。</blockquote> For example, the fiscal easing will continue. The months ahead will bring a renewed round of fiscal stimulus, as $1.9 trillion in fiscal aid is about to be unleashed. This is easing, but at the same time, the money will further fuel the economic recovery, and, in turn, more jobs will be created, and so on.<blockquote>例如，财政宽松将继续。未来几个月将迎来新一轮财政刺激，1.9万亿美元的财政援助即将释放。这是宽松，但与此同时，这笔钱将进一步推动经济复苏，进而创造更多就业机会，等等。</blockquote> More easing comes from the U.S. Treasury as well, forced to unwind its general account at the Fed in the months ahead. Finally, more easing comes even from the Fed, as it keeps purchasing $120 billion a month.<blockquote>美国财政部也采取了更多宽松政策，被迫在未来几个月解冻其在美联储的一般账户。最后，更多的宽松政策甚至来自美联储，因为它每月继续购买1200亿美元。</blockquote> Yet, traders and investors must understand these actions reflect current conditions. Also, all are priced in already.<blockquote>然而，交易者和投资者必须明白这些行动反映了当前情况。此外，所有这些都已经定价了。</blockquote> As such, the rise in long-term yields is the one thing that matters. It points to sharp economic recovery, and more easing will not deter but fuel it.<blockquote>因此，长期收益率的上升是唯一重要的事情。它表明经济将急剧复苏，更多的宽松政策不会阻止它，而是会助长它。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1614859619341","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?<blockquote>美联储会比预期更早加息吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?<blockquote>美联储会比预期更早加息吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nVantage Point2021-03-04 20:07\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for the market to understand. So far down the road during the pandemic, the Fed came to the rescue. It eased monetary conditions and also urged Congress to deliver fiscal stimulus.<blockquote>美联储陷入了困境，需要市场付出巨大的沟通努力才能理解。到目前为止，在疫情期间，美联储已经出手相救。它放松了货币条件，还敦促国会提供财政刺激。</blockquote> Its words were heard, and the Fed’s actions eased the world’s desperate need for dollars seen in the spring of 2020. Fast forward to March 2021; the Fed is in a tough spot.<blockquote>美联储的话被听到了，美联储的行动缓解了 2020 年春季世界对美元的迫切需求。快进到2021年3月；美联储处境艰难。</blockquote> On the one hand, with every stock market decline, the market participants expect the Fed to intervene. However, the stock market is still close to all-time highs, and it is unlikely that the Fed will keep intervening verbally, especially because easing is still ongoing and about to increase.<blockquote>一方面，随着股市的每一次下跌，市场参与者都期待美联储进行干预。然而，股市仍接近历史高点，美联储不太可能继续口头干预，特别是因为宽松仍在进行，并即将加码。</blockquote> On the other hand, the market starts pricing in a stronger economic recovery. Such a recovery should bring tightening from the Fed, and the market already implies that we will see a first rate hike in 2022. More precisely, the market priced in over 80% odds for a twenty-five basis points rate hike in 2022.<blockquote>另一方面，市场开始消化更强劲的经济复苏。这样的复苏应该会带来美联储的紧缩政策，市场已经暗示我们将在2022年看到首次加息。更准确地说，市场预计 2022 年加息 25 个基点的可能性超过 80%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bb0de592821a0233494cd8f9029d29e\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"571\">Forward-Looking Markets Pressuring the Fed<blockquote>前瞻性市场给美联储带来压力</blockquote> On the same note as in the previous paragraph, the same market prices in another two rate hikes in 2023 and, by the end of 2025, a tightening of monetary conditions of over 125 basis points. This translates into the federal funds rate rising from close to zero currently to 1.25% three years from now.<blockquote>与上一段相同，2023 年再加息两次，市场价格保持不变，到 2025 年底，货币条件收紧超过 125 个基点。这意味着联邦基金利率从目前的接近于零升至三年后的1.25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007096706cd8851d515cb583e75ff0b6\" tg-width=\"727\" tg-height=\"662\">The problem comes from the current conditions. The markets tend to have a forward-looking attitude, and the pricing of assets in the present is based on such an attitude. Because of that, the current monetary conditions appear inappropriate, and the Fed will have a hard time explaining why.<blockquote>问题来自于目前的条件。市场往往具有前瞻性的态度，目前的资产定价就是基于这种态度。正因为如此，当前的货币状况似乎不合适，美联储将很难解释原因。</blockquote> For example, the fiscal easing will continue. The months ahead will bring a renewed round of fiscal stimulus, as $1.9 trillion in fiscal aid is about to be unleashed. This is easing, but at the same time, the money will further fuel the economic recovery, and, in turn, more jobs will be created, and so on.<blockquote>例如，财政宽松将继续。未来几个月将迎来新一轮财政刺激，1.9万亿美元的财政援助即将释放。这是宽松，但与此同时，这笔钱将进一步推动经济复苏，进而创造更多就业机会，等等。</blockquote> More easing comes from the U.S. Treasury as well, forced to unwind its general account at the Fed in the months ahead. Finally, more easing comes even from the Fed, as it keeps purchasing $120 billion a month.<blockquote>美国财政部也采取了更多宽松政策，被迫在未来几个月解冻其在美联储的一般账户。最后，更多的宽松政策甚至来自美联储，因为它每月继续购买1200亿美元。</blockquote> Yet, traders and investors must understand these actions reflect current conditions. Also, all are priced in already.<blockquote>然而，交易者和投资者必须明白这些行动反映了当前情况。此外，所有这些都已经定价了。</blockquote> As such, the rise in long-term yields is the one thing that matters. It points to sharp economic recovery, and more easing will not deter but fuel it.<blockquote>因此，长期收益率的上升是唯一重要的事情。它表明经济将急剧复苏，更多的宽松政策不会阻止它，而是会助长它。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://vantagepointtrading.com/news/will-the-fed-hike-sooner-than-expected/\">Vantage Point</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://vantagepointtrading.com/news/will-the-fed-hike-sooner-than-expected/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125642026","content_text":"The U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for the market to understand. So far down the road during the pandemic, the Fed came to the rescue. It eased monetary conditions and also urged Congress to deliver fiscal stimulus.\nIts words were heard, and the Fed’s actions eased the world’s desperate need for dollars seen in the spring of 2020. Fast forward to March 2021; the Fed is in a tough spot.\nOn the one hand, with every stock market decline, the market participants expect the Fed to intervene. However, the stock market is still close to all-time highs, and it is unlikely that the Fed will keep intervening verbally, especially because easing is still ongoing and about to increase.\nOn the other hand, the market starts pricing in a stronger economic recovery. Such a recovery should bring tightening from the Fed, and the market already implies that we will see a first rate hike in 2022. More precisely, the market priced in over 80% odds for a twenty-five basis points rate hike in 2022.\nForward-Looking Markets Pressuring the Fed\nOn the same note as in the previous paragraph, the same market prices in another two rate hikes in 2023 and, by the end of 2025, a tightening of monetary conditions of over 125 basis points. This translates into the federal funds rate rising from close to zero currently to 1.25% three years from now.\nThe problem comes from the current conditions. The markets tend to have a forward-looking attitude, and the pricing of assets in the present is based on such an attitude. Because of that, the current monetary conditions appear inappropriate, and the Fed will have a hard time explaining why.\nFor example, the fiscal easing will continue. The months ahead will bring a renewed round of fiscal stimulus, as $1.9 trillion in fiscal aid is about to be unleashed. This is easing, but at the same time, the money will further fuel the economic recovery, and, in turn, more jobs will be created, and so on.\nMore easing comes from the U.S. Treasury as well, forced to unwind its general account at the Fed in the months ahead. Finally, more easing comes even from the Fed, as it keeps purchasing $120 billion a month.\nYet, traders and investors must understand these actions reflect current conditions. Also, all are priced in already.\nAs such, the rise in long-term yields is the one thing that matters. It points to sharp economic recovery, and more easing will not deter but fuel it.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":364513573,"gmtCreate":1614863799092,"gmtModify":1703482143378,"author":{"id":"3567122626731680","authorId":"3567122626731680","name":"Muan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e57898e50017c4ba74bca13a29623eab","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3567122626731680","authorIdStr":"3567122626731680"},"htmlText":"Sooner?","listText":"Sooner?","text":"Sooner?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364513573","repostId":1125642026,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125642026","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614859626,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1125642026?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-04 20:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?<blockquote>美联储会比预期更早加息吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125642026","media":"Vantage Point","summary":"The U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for t","content":"The U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for the market to understand. So far down the road during the pandemic, the Fed came to the rescue. It eased monetary conditions and also urged Congress to deliver fiscal stimulus.<blockquote>美联储陷入了困境，需要市场付出巨大的沟通努力才能理解。到目前为止，在疫情期间，美联储已经出手相救。它放松了货币条件，还敦促国会提供财政刺激。</blockquote> Its words were heard, and the Fed’s actions eased the world’s desperate need for dollars seen in the spring of 2020. Fast forward to March 2021; the Fed is in a tough spot.<blockquote>美联储的话被听到了，美联储的行动缓解了 2020 年春季世界对美元的迫切需求。快进到2021年3月；美联储处境艰难。</blockquote> On the one hand, with every stock market decline, the market participants expect the Fed to intervene. However, the stock market is still close to all-time highs, and it is unlikely that the Fed will keep intervening verbally, especially because easing is still ongoing and about to increase.<blockquote>一方面，随着股市的每一次下跌，市场参与者都期待美联储进行干预。然而，股市仍接近历史高点，美联储不太可能继续口头干预，特别是因为宽松仍在进行，并即将加码。</blockquote> On the other hand, the market starts pricing in a stronger economic recovery. Such a recovery should bring tightening from the Fed, and the market already implies that we will see a first rate hike in 2022. More precisely, the market priced in over 80% odds for a twenty-five basis points rate hike in 2022.<blockquote>另一方面，市场开始消化更强劲的经济复苏。这样的复苏应该会带来美联储的紧缩政策，市场已经暗示我们将在2022年看到首次加息。更准确地说，市场预计 2022 年加息 25 个基点的可能性超过 80%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bb0de592821a0233494cd8f9029d29e\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"571\">Forward-Looking Markets Pressuring the Fed<blockquote>前瞻性市场给美联储带来压力</blockquote> On the same note as in the previous paragraph, the same market prices in another two rate hikes in 2023 and, by the end of 2025, a tightening of monetary conditions of over 125 basis points. This translates into the federal funds rate rising from close to zero currently to 1.25% three years from now.<blockquote>与上一段相同，2023 年再加息两次，市场价格保持不变，到 2025 年底，货币条件收紧超过 125 个基点。这意味着联邦基金利率从目前的接近于零升至三年后的1.25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007096706cd8851d515cb583e75ff0b6\" tg-width=\"727\" tg-height=\"662\">The problem comes from the current conditions. The markets tend to have a forward-looking attitude, and the pricing of assets in the present is based on such an attitude. Because of that, the current monetary conditions appear inappropriate, and the Fed will have a hard time explaining why.<blockquote>问题来自于目前的条件。市场往往具有前瞻性的态度，目前的资产定价就是基于这种态度。正因为如此，当前的货币状况似乎不合适，美联储将很难解释原因。</blockquote> For example, the fiscal easing will continue. The months ahead will bring a renewed round of fiscal stimulus, as $1.9 trillion in fiscal aid is about to be unleashed. This is easing, but at the same time, the money will further fuel the economic recovery, and, in turn, more jobs will be created, and so on.<blockquote>例如，财政宽松将继续。未来几个月将迎来新一轮财政刺激，1.9万亿美元的财政援助即将释放。这是宽松，但与此同时，这笔钱将进一步推动经济复苏，进而创造更多就业机会，等等。</blockquote> More easing comes from the U.S. Treasury as well, forced to unwind its general account at the Fed in the months ahead. Finally, more easing comes even from the Fed, as it keeps purchasing $120 billion a month.<blockquote>美国财政部也采取了更多宽松政策，被迫在未来几个月解冻其在美联储的一般账户。最后，更多的宽松政策甚至来自美联储，因为它每月继续购买1200亿美元。</blockquote> Yet, traders and investors must understand these actions reflect current conditions. Also, all are priced in already.<blockquote>然而，交易者和投资者必须明白这些行动反映了当前情况。此外，所有这些都已经定价了。</blockquote> As such, the rise in long-term yields is the one thing that matters. It points to sharp economic recovery, and more easing will not deter but fuel it.<blockquote>因此，长期收益率的上升是唯一重要的事情。它表明经济将急剧复苏，更多的宽松政策不会阻止它，而是会助长它。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1614859619341","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?<blockquote>美联储会比预期更早加息吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?<blockquote>美联储会比预期更早加息吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nVantage Point2021-03-04 20:07\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for the market to understand. So far down the road during the pandemic, the Fed came to the rescue. It eased monetary conditions and also urged Congress to deliver fiscal stimulus.<blockquote>美联储陷入了困境，需要市场付出巨大的沟通努力才能理解。到目前为止，在疫情期间，美联储已经出手相救。它放松了货币条件，还敦促国会提供财政刺激。</blockquote> Its words were heard, and the Fed’s actions eased the world’s desperate need for dollars seen in the spring of 2020. Fast forward to March 2021; the Fed is in a tough spot.<blockquote>美联储的话被听到了，美联储的行动缓解了 2020 年春季世界对美元的迫切需求。快进到2021年3月；美联储处境艰难。</blockquote> On the one hand, with every stock market decline, the market participants expect the Fed to intervene. However, the stock market is still close to all-time highs, and it is unlikely that the Fed will keep intervening verbally, especially because easing is still ongoing and about to increase.<blockquote>一方面，随着股市的每一次下跌，市场参与者都期待美联储进行干预。然而，股市仍接近历史高点，美联储不太可能继续口头干预，特别是因为宽松仍在进行，并即将加码。</blockquote> On the other hand, the market starts pricing in a stronger economic recovery. Such a recovery should bring tightening from the Fed, and the market already implies that we will see a first rate hike in 2022. More precisely, the market priced in over 80% odds for a twenty-five basis points rate hike in 2022.<blockquote>另一方面，市场开始消化更强劲的经济复苏。这样的复苏应该会带来美联储的紧缩政策，市场已经暗示我们将在2022年看到首次加息。更准确地说，市场预计 2022 年加息 25 个基点的可能性超过 80%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bb0de592821a0233494cd8f9029d29e\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"571\">Forward-Looking Markets Pressuring the Fed<blockquote>前瞻性市场给美联储带来压力</blockquote> On the same note as in the previous paragraph, the same market prices in another two rate hikes in 2023 and, by the end of 2025, a tightening of monetary conditions of over 125 basis points. This translates into the federal funds rate rising from close to zero currently to 1.25% three years from now.<blockquote>与上一段相同，2023 年再加息两次，市场价格保持不变，到 2025 年底，货币条件收紧超过 125 个基点。这意味着联邦基金利率从目前的接近于零升至三年后的1.25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007096706cd8851d515cb583e75ff0b6\" tg-width=\"727\" tg-height=\"662\">The problem comes from the current conditions. The markets tend to have a forward-looking attitude, and the pricing of assets in the present is based on such an attitude. Because of that, the current monetary conditions appear inappropriate, and the Fed will have a hard time explaining why.<blockquote>问题来自于目前的条件。市场往往具有前瞻性的态度，目前的资产定价就是基于这种态度。正因为如此，当前的货币状况似乎不合适，美联储将很难解释原因。</blockquote> For example, the fiscal easing will continue. The months ahead will bring a renewed round of fiscal stimulus, as $1.9 trillion in fiscal aid is about to be unleashed. This is easing, but at the same time, the money will further fuel the economic recovery, and, in turn, more jobs will be created, and so on.<blockquote>例如，财政宽松将继续。未来几个月将迎来新一轮财政刺激，1.9万亿美元的财政援助即将释放。这是宽松，但与此同时，这笔钱将进一步推动经济复苏，进而创造更多就业机会，等等。</blockquote> More easing comes from the U.S. Treasury as well, forced to unwind its general account at the Fed in the months ahead. Finally, more easing comes even from the Fed, as it keeps purchasing $120 billion a month.<blockquote>美国财政部也采取了更多宽松政策，被迫在未来几个月解冻其在美联储的一般账户。最后，更多的宽松政策甚至来自美联储，因为它每月继续购买1200亿美元。</blockquote> Yet, traders and investors must understand these actions reflect current conditions. Also, all are priced in already.<blockquote>然而，交易者和投资者必须明白这些行动反映了当前情况。此外，所有这些都已经定价了。</blockquote> As such, the rise in long-term yields is the one thing that matters. It points to sharp economic recovery, and more easing will not deter but fuel it.<blockquote>因此，长期收益率的上升是唯一重要的事情。它表明经济将急剧复苏，更多的宽松政策不会阻止它，而是会助长它。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://vantagepointtrading.com/news/will-the-fed-hike-sooner-than-expected/\">Vantage Point</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://vantagepointtrading.com/news/will-the-fed-hike-sooner-than-expected/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125642026","content_text":"The U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for the market to understand. So far down the road during the pandemic, the Fed came to the rescue. It eased monetary conditions and also urged Congress to deliver fiscal stimulus.\nIts words were heard, and the Fed’s actions eased the world’s desperate need for dollars seen in the spring of 2020. Fast forward to March 2021; the Fed is in a tough spot.\nOn the one hand, with every stock market decline, the market participants expect the Fed to intervene. However, the stock market is still close to all-time highs, and it is unlikely that the Fed will keep intervening verbally, especially because easing is still ongoing and about to increase.\nOn the other hand, the market starts pricing in a stronger economic recovery. Such a recovery should bring tightening from the Fed, and the market already implies that we will see a first rate hike in 2022. More precisely, the market priced in over 80% odds for a twenty-five basis points rate hike in 2022.\nForward-Looking Markets Pressuring the Fed\nOn the same note as in the previous paragraph, the same market prices in another two rate hikes in 2023 and, by the end of 2025, a tightening of monetary conditions of over 125 basis points. This translates into the federal funds rate rising from close to zero currently to 1.25% three years from now.\nThe problem comes from the current conditions. The markets tend to have a forward-looking attitude, and the pricing of assets in the present is based on such an attitude. Because of that, the current monetary conditions appear inappropriate, and the Fed will have a hard time explaining why.\nFor example, the fiscal easing will continue. The months ahead will bring a renewed round of fiscal stimulus, as $1.9 trillion in fiscal aid is about to be unleashed. This is easing, but at the same time, the money will further fuel the economic recovery, and, in turn, more jobs will be created, and so on.\nMore easing comes from the U.S. Treasury as well, forced to unwind its general account at the Fed in the months ahead. Finally, more easing comes even from the Fed, as it keeps purchasing $120 billion a month.\nYet, traders and investors must understand these actions reflect current conditions. Also, all are priced in already.\nAs such, the rise in long-term yields is the one thing that matters. It points to sharp economic recovery, and more easing will not deter but fuel it.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3715149,"gmtCreate":1614866116717,"gmtModify":1635758657744,"authorId":3576981890239678,"author":{"id":3576981890239678,"idStr":"3576981890239678","authorId":3576981890239678,"name":"Jovin82","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752a4c83d93acf209829577d533a6593","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":364513573,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"yup","text":"yup","html":"yup"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":364519491,"gmtCreate":1614863744513,"gmtModify":1703482141827,"author":{"id":"3569395672897883","authorId":"3569395672897883","name":"JASLIM","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3569395672897883","authorIdStr":"3569395672897883"},"htmlText":"Really?","listText":"Really?","text":"Really?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364519491","repostId":1125642026,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125642026","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614859626,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1125642026?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-04 20:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?<blockquote>美联储会比预期更早加息吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125642026","media":"Vantage Point","summary":"The U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for t","content":"The U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for the market to understand. So far down the road during the pandemic, the Fed came to the rescue. It eased monetary conditions and also urged Congress to deliver fiscal stimulus.<blockquote>美联储陷入了困境，需要市场付出巨大的沟通努力才能理解。到目前为止，在疫情期间，美联储已经出手相救。它放松了货币条件，还敦促国会提供财政刺激。</blockquote> Its words were heard, and the Fed’s actions eased the world’s desperate need for dollars seen in the spring of 2020. Fast forward to March 2021; the Fed is in a tough spot.<blockquote>美联储的话被听到了，美联储的行动缓解了 2020 年春季世界对美元的迫切需求。快进到2021年3月；美联储处境艰难。</blockquote> On the one hand, with every stock market decline, the market participants expect the Fed to intervene. However, the stock market is still close to all-time highs, and it is unlikely that the Fed will keep intervening verbally, especially because easing is still ongoing and about to increase.<blockquote>一方面，随着股市的每一次下跌，市场参与者都期待美联储进行干预。然而，股市仍接近历史高点，美联储不太可能继续口头干预，特别是因为宽松仍在进行，并即将加码。</blockquote> On the other hand, the market starts pricing in a stronger economic recovery. Such a recovery should bring tightening from the Fed, and the market already implies that we will see a first rate hike in 2022. More precisely, the market priced in over 80% odds for a twenty-five basis points rate hike in 2022.<blockquote>另一方面，市场开始消化更强劲的经济复苏。这样的复苏应该会带来美联储的紧缩政策，市场已经暗示我们将在2022年看到首次加息。更准确地说，市场预计 2022 年加息 25 个基点的可能性超过 80%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bb0de592821a0233494cd8f9029d29e\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"571\">Forward-Looking Markets Pressuring the Fed<blockquote>前瞻性市场给美联储带来压力</blockquote> On the same note as in the previous paragraph, the same market prices in another two rate hikes in 2023 and, by the end of 2025, a tightening of monetary conditions of over 125 basis points. This translates into the federal funds rate rising from close to zero currently to 1.25% three years from now.<blockquote>与上一段相同，2023 年再加息两次，市场价格保持不变，到 2025 年底，货币条件收紧超过 125 个基点。这意味着联邦基金利率从目前的接近于零升至三年后的1.25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007096706cd8851d515cb583e75ff0b6\" tg-width=\"727\" tg-height=\"662\">The problem comes from the current conditions. The markets tend to have a forward-looking attitude, and the pricing of assets in the present is based on such an attitude. Because of that, the current monetary conditions appear inappropriate, and the Fed will have a hard time explaining why.<blockquote>问题来自于目前的条件。市场往往具有前瞻性的态度，目前的资产定价就是基于这种态度。正因为如此，当前的货币状况似乎不合适，美联储将很难解释原因。</blockquote> For example, the fiscal easing will continue. The months ahead will bring a renewed round of fiscal stimulus, as $1.9 trillion in fiscal aid is about to be unleashed. This is easing, but at the same time, the money will further fuel the economic recovery, and, in turn, more jobs will be created, and so on.<blockquote>例如，财政宽松将继续。未来几个月将迎来新一轮财政刺激，1.9万亿美元的财政援助即将释放。这是宽松，但与此同时，这笔钱将进一步推动经济复苏，进而创造更多就业机会，等等。</blockquote> More easing comes from the U.S. Treasury as well, forced to unwind its general account at the Fed in the months ahead. Finally, more easing comes even from the Fed, as it keeps purchasing $120 billion a month.<blockquote>美国财政部也采取了更多宽松政策，被迫在未来几个月解冻其在美联储的一般账户。最后，更多的宽松政策甚至来自美联储，因为它每月继续购买1200亿美元。</blockquote> Yet, traders and investors must understand these actions reflect current conditions. Also, all are priced in already.<blockquote>然而，交易者和投资者必须明白这些行动反映了当前情况。此外，所有这些都已经定价了。</blockquote> As such, the rise in long-term yields is the one thing that matters. It points to sharp economic recovery, and more easing will not deter but fuel it.<blockquote>因此，长期收益率的上升是唯一重要的事情。它表明经济将急剧复苏，更多的宽松政策不会阻止它，而是会助长它。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1614859619341","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?<blockquote>美联储会比预期更早加息吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?<blockquote>美联储会比预期更早加息吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nVantage Point2021-03-04 20:07\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for the market to understand. So far down the road during the pandemic, the Fed came to the rescue. It eased monetary conditions and also urged Congress to deliver fiscal stimulus.<blockquote>美联储陷入了困境，需要市场付出巨大的沟通努力才能理解。到目前为止，在疫情期间，美联储已经出手相救。它放松了货币条件，还敦促国会提供财政刺激。</blockquote> Its words were heard, and the Fed’s actions eased the world’s desperate need for dollars seen in the spring of 2020. Fast forward to March 2021; the Fed is in a tough spot.<blockquote>美联储的话被听到了，美联储的行动缓解了 2020 年春季世界对美元的迫切需求。快进到2021年3月；美联储处境艰难。</blockquote> On the one hand, with every stock market decline, the market participants expect the Fed to intervene. However, the stock market is still close to all-time highs, and it is unlikely that the Fed will keep intervening verbally, especially because easing is still ongoing and about to increase.<blockquote>一方面，随着股市的每一次下跌，市场参与者都期待美联储进行干预。然而，股市仍接近历史高点，美联储不太可能继续口头干预，特别是因为宽松仍在进行，并即将加码。</blockquote> On the other hand, the market starts pricing in a stronger economic recovery. Such a recovery should bring tightening from the Fed, and the market already implies that we will see a first rate hike in 2022. More precisely, the market priced in over 80% odds for a twenty-five basis points rate hike in 2022.<blockquote>另一方面，市场开始消化更强劲的经济复苏。这样的复苏应该会带来美联储的紧缩政策，市场已经暗示我们将在2022年看到首次加息。更准确地说，市场预计 2022 年加息 25 个基点的可能性超过 80%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bb0de592821a0233494cd8f9029d29e\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"571\">Forward-Looking Markets Pressuring the Fed<blockquote>前瞻性市场给美联储带来压力</blockquote> On the same note as in the previous paragraph, the same market prices in another two rate hikes in 2023 and, by the end of 2025, a tightening of monetary conditions of over 125 basis points. This translates into the federal funds rate rising from close to zero currently to 1.25% three years from now.<blockquote>与上一段相同，2023 年再加息两次，市场价格保持不变，到 2025 年底，货币条件收紧超过 125 个基点。这意味着联邦基金利率从目前的接近于零升至三年后的1.25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007096706cd8851d515cb583e75ff0b6\" tg-width=\"727\" tg-height=\"662\">The problem comes from the current conditions. The markets tend to have a forward-looking attitude, and the pricing of assets in the present is based on such an attitude. Because of that, the current monetary conditions appear inappropriate, and the Fed will have a hard time explaining why.<blockquote>问题来自于目前的条件。市场往往具有前瞻性的态度，目前的资产定价就是基于这种态度。正因为如此，当前的货币状况似乎不合适，美联储将很难解释原因。</blockquote> For example, the fiscal easing will continue. The months ahead will bring a renewed round of fiscal stimulus, as $1.9 trillion in fiscal aid is about to be unleashed. This is easing, but at the same time, the money will further fuel the economic recovery, and, in turn, more jobs will be created, and so on.<blockquote>例如，财政宽松将继续。未来几个月将迎来新一轮财政刺激，1.9万亿美元的财政援助即将释放。这是宽松，但与此同时，这笔钱将进一步推动经济复苏，进而创造更多就业机会，等等。</blockquote> More easing comes from the U.S. Treasury as well, forced to unwind its general account at the Fed in the months ahead. Finally, more easing comes even from the Fed, as it keeps purchasing $120 billion a month.<blockquote>美国财政部也采取了更多宽松政策，被迫在未来几个月解冻其在美联储的一般账户。最后，更多的宽松政策甚至来自美联储，因为它每月继续购买1200亿美元。</blockquote> Yet, traders and investors must understand these actions reflect current conditions. Also, all are priced in already.<blockquote>然而，交易者和投资者必须明白这些行动反映了当前情况。此外，所有这些都已经定价了。</blockquote> As such, the rise in long-term yields is the one thing that matters. It points to sharp economic recovery, and more easing will not deter but fuel it.<blockquote>因此，长期收益率的上升是唯一重要的事情。它表明经济将急剧复苏，更多的宽松政策不会阻止它，而是会助长它。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://vantagepointtrading.com/news/will-the-fed-hike-sooner-than-expected/\">Vantage Point</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://vantagepointtrading.com/news/will-the-fed-hike-sooner-than-expected/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125642026","content_text":"The U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for the market to understand. So far down the road during the pandemic, the Fed came to the rescue. It eased monetary conditions and also urged Congress to deliver fiscal stimulus.\nIts words were heard, and the Fed’s actions eased the world’s desperate need for dollars seen in the spring of 2020. Fast forward to March 2021; the Fed is in a tough spot.\nOn the one hand, with every stock market decline, the market participants expect the Fed to intervene. However, the stock market is still close to all-time highs, and it is unlikely that the Fed will keep intervening verbally, especially because easing is still ongoing and about to increase.\nOn the other hand, the market starts pricing in a stronger economic recovery. Such a recovery should bring tightening from the Fed, and the market already implies that we will see a first rate hike in 2022. More precisely, the market priced in over 80% odds for a twenty-five basis points rate hike in 2022.\nForward-Looking Markets Pressuring the Fed\nOn the same note as in the previous paragraph, the same market prices in another two rate hikes in 2023 and, by the end of 2025, a tightening of monetary conditions of over 125 basis points. This translates into the federal funds rate rising from close to zero currently to 1.25% three years from now.\nThe problem comes from the current conditions. The markets tend to have a forward-looking attitude, and the pricing of assets in the present is based on such an attitude. Because of that, the current monetary conditions appear inappropriate, and the Fed will have a hard time explaining why.\nFor example, the fiscal easing will continue. The months ahead will bring a renewed round of fiscal stimulus, as $1.9 trillion in fiscal aid is about to be unleashed. This is easing, but at the same time, the money will further fuel the economic recovery, and, in turn, more jobs will be created, and so on.\nMore easing comes from the U.S. Treasury as well, forced to unwind its general account at the Fed in the months ahead. Finally, more easing comes even from the Fed, as it keeps purchasing $120 billion a month.\nYet, traders and investors must understand these actions reflect current conditions. Also, all are priced in already.\nAs such, the rise in long-term yields is the one thing that matters. It points to sharp economic recovery, and more easing will not deter but fuel it.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3714716,"gmtCreate":1614863761478,"gmtModify":1635758678292,"authorId":3569395672897883,"author":{"id":3569395672897883,"idStr":"3569395672897883","authorId":3569395672897883,"name":"JASLIM","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":364519491,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"lol","text":"lol","html":"lol"},{"id":3714745,"gmtCreate":1614863936513,"gmtModify":1635758676720,"authorId":3564539038897071,"author":{"id":3564539038897071,"idStr":"3564539038897071","authorId":3564539038897071,"name":"KCNG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":364519491,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Lol","text":"Lol","html":"Lol"},{"id":3714756,"gmtCreate":1614863987696,"gmtModify":1635758675756,"authorId":3564539038897071,"author":{"id":3564539038897071,"idStr":"3564539038897071","authorId":3564539038897071,"name":"KCNG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":364519491,"type":1,"supId":3714716,"prevId":0,"content":"Yes","text":"Yes","html":"Yes"},{"id":3715041,"gmtCreate":1614865431109,"gmtModify":1635758661916,"authorId":3572221025729195,"author":{"id":3572221025729195,"idStr":"3572221025729195","authorId":3572221025729195,"name":"SANTANA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a061d60a2073e953cadcba23f9c87b0","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":364519491,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Sure","text":"Sure","html":"Sure"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":364519238,"gmtCreate":1614863725424,"gmtModify":1703482141654,"author":{"id":"3574084889342346","authorId":"3574084889342346","name":"Lightman95","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d8168d6b82471a6bfa7049329390613","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3574084889342346","authorIdStr":"3574084889342346"},"htmlText":"Hopefully not :( coin comment, like respond ^_^","listText":"Hopefully not :( coin comment, like respond ^_^","text":"Hopefully not :( coin comment, like respond ^_^","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364519238","repostId":1125642026,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125642026","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614859626,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1125642026?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-04 20:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?<blockquote>美联储会比预期更早加息吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125642026","media":"Vantage Point","summary":"The U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for t","content":"The U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for the market to understand. So far down the road during the pandemic, the Fed came to the rescue. It eased monetary conditions and also urged Congress to deliver fiscal stimulus.<blockquote>美联储陷入了困境，需要市场付出巨大的沟通努力才能理解。到目前为止，在疫情期间，美联储已经出手相救。它放松了货币条件，还敦促国会提供财政刺激。</blockquote> Its words were heard, and the Fed’s actions eased the world’s desperate need for dollars seen in the spring of 2020. Fast forward to March 2021; the Fed is in a tough spot.<blockquote>美联储的话被听到了，美联储的行动缓解了 2020 年春季世界对美元的迫切需求。快进到2021年3月；美联储处境艰难。</blockquote> On the one hand, with every stock market decline, the market participants expect the Fed to intervene. However, the stock market is still close to all-time highs, and it is unlikely that the Fed will keep intervening verbally, especially because easing is still ongoing and about to increase.<blockquote>一方面，随着股市的每一次下跌，市场参与者都期待美联储进行干预。然而，股市仍接近历史高点，美联储不太可能继续口头干预，特别是因为宽松仍在进行，并即将加码。</blockquote> On the other hand, the market starts pricing in a stronger economic recovery. Such a recovery should bring tightening from the Fed, and the market already implies that we will see a first rate hike in 2022. More precisely, the market priced in over 80% odds for a twenty-five basis points rate hike in 2022.<blockquote>另一方面，市场开始消化更强劲的经济复苏。这样的复苏应该会带来美联储的紧缩政策，市场已经暗示我们将在2022年看到首次加息。更准确地说，市场预计 2022 年加息 25 个基点的可能性超过 80%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bb0de592821a0233494cd8f9029d29e\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"571\">Forward-Looking Markets Pressuring the Fed<blockquote>前瞻性市场给美联储带来压力</blockquote> On the same note as in the previous paragraph, the same market prices in another two rate hikes in 2023 and, by the end of 2025, a tightening of monetary conditions of over 125 basis points. This translates into the federal funds rate rising from close to zero currently to 1.25% three years from now.<blockquote>与上一段相同，2023 年再加息两次，市场价格保持不变，到 2025 年底，货币条件收紧超过 125 个基点。这意味着联邦基金利率从目前的接近于零升至三年后的1.25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007096706cd8851d515cb583e75ff0b6\" tg-width=\"727\" tg-height=\"662\">The problem comes from the current conditions. The markets tend to have a forward-looking attitude, and the pricing of assets in the present is based on such an attitude. Because of that, the current monetary conditions appear inappropriate, and the Fed will have a hard time explaining why.<blockquote>问题来自于目前的条件。市场往往具有前瞻性的态度，目前的资产定价就是基于这种态度。正因为如此，当前的货币状况似乎不合适，美联储将很难解释原因。</blockquote> For example, the fiscal easing will continue. The months ahead will bring a renewed round of fiscal stimulus, as $1.9 trillion in fiscal aid is about to be unleashed. This is easing, but at the same time, the money will further fuel the economic recovery, and, in turn, more jobs will be created, and so on.<blockquote>例如，财政宽松将继续。未来几个月将迎来新一轮财政刺激，1.9万亿美元的财政援助即将释放。这是宽松，但与此同时，这笔钱将进一步推动经济复苏，进而创造更多就业机会，等等。</blockquote> More easing comes from the U.S. Treasury as well, forced to unwind its general account at the Fed in the months ahead. Finally, more easing comes even from the Fed, as it keeps purchasing $120 billion a month.<blockquote>美国财政部也采取了更多宽松政策，被迫在未来几个月解冻其在美联储的一般账户。最后，更多的宽松政策甚至来自美联储，因为它每月继续购买1200亿美元。</blockquote> Yet, traders and investors must understand these actions reflect current conditions. Also, all are priced in already.<blockquote>然而，交易者和投资者必须明白这些行动反映了当前情况。此外，所有这些都已经定价了。</blockquote> As such, the rise in long-term yields is the one thing that matters. It points to sharp economic recovery, and more easing will not deter but fuel it.<blockquote>因此，长期收益率的上升是唯一重要的事情。它表明经济将急剧复苏，更多的宽松政策不会阻止它，而是会助长它。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1614859619341","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?<blockquote>美联储会比预期更早加息吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?<blockquote>美联储会比预期更早加息吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nVantage Point2021-03-04 20:07\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for the market to understand. So far down the road during the pandemic, the Fed came to the rescue. It eased monetary conditions and also urged Congress to deliver fiscal stimulus.<blockquote>美联储陷入了困境，需要市场付出巨大的沟通努力才能理解。到目前为止，在疫情期间，美联储已经出手相救。它放松了货币条件，还敦促国会提供财政刺激。</blockquote> Its words were heard, and the Fed’s actions eased the world’s desperate need for dollars seen in the spring of 2020. Fast forward to March 2021; the Fed is in a tough spot.<blockquote>美联储的话被听到了，美联储的行动缓解了 2020 年春季世界对美元的迫切需求。快进到2021年3月；美联储处境艰难。</blockquote> On the one hand, with every stock market decline, the market participants expect the Fed to intervene. However, the stock market is still close to all-time highs, and it is unlikely that the Fed will keep intervening verbally, especially because easing is still ongoing and about to increase.<blockquote>一方面，随着股市的每一次下跌，市场参与者都期待美联储进行干预。然而，股市仍接近历史高点，美联储不太可能继续口头干预，特别是因为宽松仍在进行，并即将加码。</blockquote> On the other hand, the market starts pricing in a stronger economic recovery. Such a recovery should bring tightening from the Fed, and the market already implies that we will see a first rate hike in 2022. More precisely, the market priced in over 80% odds for a twenty-five basis points rate hike in 2022.<blockquote>另一方面，市场开始消化更强劲的经济复苏。这样的复苏应该会带来美联储的紧缩政策，市场已经暗示我们将在2022年看到首次加息。更准确地说，市场预计 2022 年加息 25 个基点的可能性超过 80%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bb0de592821a0233494cd8f9029d29e\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"571\">Forward-Looking Markets Pressuring the Fed<blockquote>前瞻性市场给美联储带来压力</blockquote> On the same note as in the previous paragraph, the same market prices in another two rate hikes in 2023 and, by the end of 2025, a tightening of monetary conditions of over 125 basis points. This translates into the federal funds rate rising from close to zero currently to 1.25% three years from now.<blockquote>与上一段相同，2023 年再加息两次，市场价格保持不变，到 2025 年底，货币条件收紧超过 125 个基点。这意味着联邦基金利率从目前的接近于零升至三年后的1.25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007096706cd8851d515cb583e75ff0b6\" tg-width=\"727\" tg-height=\"662\">The problem comes from the current conditions. The markets tend to have a forward-looking attitude, and the pricing of assets in the present is based on such an attitude. Because of that, the current monetary conditions appear inappropriate, and the Fed will have a hard time explaining why.<blockquote>问题来自于目前的条件。市场往往具有前瞻性的态度，目前的资产定价就是基于这种态度。正因为如此，当前的货币状况似乎不合适，美联储将很难解释原因。</blockquote> For example, the fiscal easing will continue. The months ahead will bring a renewed round of fiscal stimulus, as $1.9 trillion in fiscal aid is about to be unleashed. This is easing, but at the same time, the money will further fuel the economic recovery, and, in turn, more jobs will be created, and so on.<blockquote>例如，财政宽松将继续。未来几个月将迎来新一轮财政刺激，1.9万亿美元的财政援助即将释放。这是宽松，但与此同时，这笔钱将进一步推动经济复苏，进而创造更多就业机会，等等。</blockquote> More easing comes from the U.S. Treasury as well, forced to unwind its general account at the Fed in the months ahead. Finally, more easing comes even from the Fed, as it keeps purchasing $120 billion a month.<blockquote>美国财政部也采取了更多宽松政策，被迫在未来几个月解冻其在美联储的一般账户。最后，更多的宽松政策甚至来自美联储，因为它每月继续购买1200亿美元。</blockquote> Yet, traders and investors must understand these actions reflect current conditions. Also, all are priced in already.<blockquote>然而，交易者和投资者必须明白这些行动反映了当前情况。此外，所有这些都已经定价了。</blockquote> As such, the rise in long-term yields is the one thing that matters. It points to sharp economic recovery, and more easing will not deter but fuel it.<blockquote>因此，长期收益率的上升是唯一重要的事情。它表明经济将急剧复苏，更多的宽松政策不会阻止它，而是会助长它。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://vantagepointtrading.com/news/will-the-fed-hike-sooner-than-expected/\">Vantage Point</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://vantagepointtrading.com/news/will-the-fed-hike-sooner-than-expected/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125642026","content_text":"The U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for the market to understand. So far down the road during the pandemic, the Fed came to the rescue. It eased monetary conditions and also urged Congress to deliver fiscal stimulus.\nIts words were heard, and the Fed’s actions eased the world’s desperate need for dollars seen in the spring of 2020. Fast forward to March 2021; the Fed is in a tough spot.\nOn the one hand, with every stock market decline, the market participants expect the Fed to intervene. However, the stock market is still close to all-time highs, and it is unlikely that the Fed will keep intervening verbally, especially because easing is still ongoing and about to increase.\nOn the other hand, the market starts pricing in a stronger economic recovery. Such a recovery should bring tightening from the Fed, and the market already implies that we will see a first rate hike in 2022. More precisely, the market priced in over 80% odds for a twenty-five basis points rate hike in 2022.\nForward-Looking Markets Pressuring the Fed\nOn the same note as in the previous paragraph, the same market prices in another two rate hikes in 2023 and, by the end of 2025, a tightening of monetary conditions of over 125 basis points. This translates into the federal funds rate rising from close to zero currently to 1.25% three years from now.\nThe problem comes from the current conditions. The markets tend to have a forward-looking attitude, and the pricing of assets in the present is based on such an attitude. Because of that, the current monetary conditions appear inappropriate, and the Fed will have a hard time explaining why.\nFor example, the fiscal easing will continue. The months ahead will bring a renewed round of fiscal stimulus, as $1.9 trillion in fiscal aid is about to be unleashed. This is easing, but at the same time, the money will further fuel the economic recovery, and, in turn, more jobs will be created, and so on.\nMore easing comes from the U.S. Treasury as well, forced to unwind its general account at the Fed in the months ahead. Finally, more easing comes even from the Fed, as it keeps purchasing $120 billion a month.\nYet, traders and investors must understand these actions reflect current conditions. Also, all are priced in already.\nAs such, the rise in long-term yields is the one thing that matters. It points to sharp economic recovery, and more easing will not deter but fuel it.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":364535249,"gmtCreate":1614863453181,"gmtModify":1703482135787,"author":{"id":"3574935484727599","authorId":"3574935484727599","name":"LawrenceSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a879ddd0abf131f7ee8ffa279a89e97d","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3574935484727599","authorIdStr":"3574935484727599"},"htmlText":"Please...Slow down","listText":"Please...Slow down","text":"Please...Slow down","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364535249","repostId":1125642026,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125642026","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614859626,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1125642026?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-04 20:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?<blockquote>美联储会比预期更早加息吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125642026","media":"Vantage Point","summary":"The U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for t","content":"The U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for the market to understand. So far down the road during the pandemic, the Fed came to the rescue. It eased monetary conditions and also urged Congress to deliver fiscal stimulus.<blockquote>美联储陷入了困境，需要市场付出巨大的沟通努力才能理解。到目前为止，在疫情期间，美联储已经出手相救。它放松了货币条件，还敦促国会提供财政刺激。</blockquote> Its words were heard, and the Fed’s actions eased the world’s desperate need for dollars seen in the spring of 2020. Fast forward to March 2021; the Fed is in a tough spot.<blockquote>美联储的话被听到了，美联储的行动缓解了 2020 年春季世界对美元的迫切需求。快进到2021年3月；美联储处境艰难。</blockquote> On the one hand, with every stock market decline, the market participants expect the Fed to intervene. However, the stock market is still close to all-time highs, and it is unlikely that the Fed will keep intervening verbally, especially because easing is still ongoing and about to increase.<blockquote>一方面，随着股市的每一次下跌，市场参与者都期待美联储进行干预。然而，股市仍接近历史高点，美联储不太可能继续口头干预，特别是因为宽松仍在进行，并即将加码。</blockquote> On the other hand, the market starts pricing in a stronger economic recovery. Such a recovery should bring tightening from the Fed, and the market already implies that we will see a first rate hike in 2022. More precisely, the market priced in over 80% odds for a twenty-five basis points rate hike in 2022.<blockquote>另一方面，市场开始消化更强劲的经济复苏。这样的复苏应该会带来美联储的紧缩政策，市场已经暗示我们将在2022年看到首次加息。更准确地说，市场预计 2022 年加息 25 个基点的可能性超过 80%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bb0de592821a0233494cd8f9029d29e\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"571\">Forward-Looking Markets Pressuring the Fed<blockquote>前瞻性市场给美联储带来压力</blockquote> On the same note as in the previous paragraph, the same market prices in another two rate hikes in 2023 and, by the end of 2025, a tightening of monetary conditions of over 125 basis points. This translates into the federal funds rate rising from close to zero currently to 1.25% three years from now.<blockquote>与上一段相同，2023 年再加息两次，市场价格保持不变，到 2025 年底，货币条件收紧超过 125 个基点。这意味着联邦基金利率从目前的接近于零升至三年后的1.25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007096706cd8851d515cb583e75ff0b6\" tg-width=\"727\" tg-height=\"662\">The problem comes from the current conditions. The markets tend to have a forward-looking attitude, and the pricing of assets in the present is based on such an attitude. Because of that, the current monetary conditions appear inappropriate, and the Fed will have a hard time explaining why.<blockquote>问题来自于目前的条件。市场往往具有前瞻性的态度，目前的资产定价就是基于这种态度。正因为如此，当前的货币状况似乎不合适，美联储将很难解释原因。</blockquote> For example, the fiscal easing will continue. The months ahead will bring a renewed round of fiscal stimulus, as $1.9 trillion in fiscal aid is about to be unleashed. This is easing, but at the same time, the money will further fuel the economic recovery, and, in turn, more jobs will be created, and so on.<blockquote>例如，财政宽松将继续。未来几个月将迎来新一轮财政刺激，1.9万亿美元的财政援助即将释放。这是宽松，但与此同时，这笔钱将进一步推动经济复苏，进而创造更多就业机会，等等。</blockquote> More easing comes from the U.S. Treasury as well, forced to unwind its general account at the Fed in the months ahead. Finally, more easing comes even from the Fed, as it keeps purchasing $120 billion a month.<blockquote>美国财政部也采取了更多宽松政策，被迫在未来几个月解冻其在美联储的一般账户。最后，更多的宽松政策甚至来自美联储，因为它每月继续购买1200亿美元。</blockquote> Yet, traders and investors must understand these actions reflect current conditions. Also, all are priced in already.<blockquote>然而，交易者和投资者必须明白这些行动反映了当前情况。此外，所有这些都已经定价了。</blockquote> As such, the rise in long-term yields is the one thing that matters. It points to sharp economic recovery, and more easing will not deter but fuel it.<blockquote>因此，长期收益率的上升是唯一重要的事情。它表明经济将急剧复苏，更多的宽松政策不会阻止它，而是会助长它。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1614859619341","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?<blockquote>美联储会比预期更早加息吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?<blockquote>美联储会比预期更早加息吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nVantage Point2021-03-04 20:07\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for the market to understand. So far down the road during the pandemic, the Fed came to the rescue. It eased monetary conditions and also urged Congress to deliver fiscal stimulus.<blockquote>美联储陷入了困境，需要市场付出巨大的沟通努力才能理解。到目前为止，在疫情期间，美联储已经出手相救。它放松了货币条件，还敦促国会提供财政刺激。</blockquote> Its words were heard, and the Fed’s actions eased the world’s desperate need for dollars seen in the spring of 2020. Fast forward to March 2021; the Fed is in a tough spot.<blockquote>美联储的话被听到了，美联储的行动缓解了 2020 年春季世界对美元的迫切需求。快进到2021年3月；美联储处境艰难。</blockquote> On the one hand, with every stock market decline, the market participants expect the Fed to intervene. However, the stock market is still close to all-time highs, and it is unlikely that the Fed will keep intervening verbally, especially because easing is still ongoing and about to increase.<blockquote>一方面，随着股市的每一次下跌，市场参与者都期待美联储进行干预。然而，股市仍接近历史高点，美联储不太可能继续口头干预，特别是因为宽松仍在进行，并即将加码。</blockquote> On the other hand, the market starts pricing in a stronger economic recovery. Such a recovery should bring tightening from the Fed, and the market already implies that we will see a first rate hike in 2022. More precisely, the market priced in over 80% odds for a twenty-five basis points rate hike in 2022.<blockquote>另一方面，市场开始消化更强劲的经济复苏。这样的复苏应该会带来美联储的紧缩政策，市场已经暗示我们将在2022年看到首次加息。更准确地说，市场预计 2022 年加息 25 个基点的可能性超过 80%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bb0de592821a0233494cd8f9029d29e\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"571\">Forward-Looking Markets Pressuring the Fed<blockquote>前瞻性市场给美联储带来压力</blockquote> On the same note as in the previous paragraph, the same market prices in another two rate hikes in 2023 and, by the end of 2025, a tightening of monetary conditions of over 125 basis points. This translates into the federal funds rate rising from close to zero currently to 1.25% three years from now.<blockquote>与上一段相同，2023 年再加息两次，市场价格保持不变，到 2025 年底，货币条件收紧超过 125 个基点。这意味着联邦基金利率从目前的接近于零升至三年后的1.25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007096706cd8851d515cb583e75ff0b6\" tg-width=\"727\" tg-height=\"662\">The problem comes from the current conditions. The markets tend to have a forward-looking attitude, and the pricing of assets in the present is based on such an attitude. Because of that, the current monetary conditions appear inappropriate, and the Fed will have a hard time explaining why.<blockquote>问题来自于目前的条件。市场往往具有前瞻性的态度，目前的资产定价就是基于这种态度。正因为如此，当前的货币状况似乎不合适，美联储将很难解释原因。</blockquote> For example, the fiscal easing will continue. The months ahead will bring a renewed round of fiscal stimulus, as $1.9 trillion in fiscal aid is about to be unleashed. This is easing, but at the same time, the money will further fuel the economic recovery, and, in turn, more jobs will be created, and so on.<blockquote>例如，财政宽松将继续。未来几个月将迎来新一轮财政刺激，1.9万亿美元的财政援助即将释放。这是宽松，但与此同时，这笔钱将进一步推动经济复苏，进而创造更多就业机会，等等。</blockquote> More easing comes from the U.S. Treasury as well, forced to unwind its general account at the Fed in the months ahead. Finally, more easing comes even from the Fed, as it keeps purchasing $120 billion a month.<blockquote>美国财政部也采取了更多宽松政策，被迫在未来几个月解冻其在美联储的一般账户。最后，更多的宽松政策甚至来自美联储，因为它每月继续购买1200亿美元。</blockquote> Yet, traders and investors must understand these actions reflect current conditions. Also, all are priced in already.<blockquote>然而，交易者和投资者必须明白这些行动反映了当前情况。此外，所有这些都已经定价了。</blockquote> As such, the rise in long-term yields is the one thing that matters. It points to sharp economic recovery, and more easing will not deter but fuel it.<blockquote>因此，长期收益率的上升是唯一重要的事情。它表明经济将急剧复苏，更多的宽松政策不会阻止它，而是会助长它。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://vantagepointtrading.com/news/will-the-fed-hike-sooner-than-expected/\">Vantage Point</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://vantagepointtrading.com/news/will-the-fed-hike-sooner-than-expected/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125642026","content_text":"The U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for the market to understand. So far down the road during the pandemic, the Fed came to the rescue. It eased monetary conditions and also urged Congress to deliver fiscal stimulus.\nIts words were heard, and the Fed’s actions eased the world’s desperate need for dollars seen in the spring of 2020. Fast forward to March 2021; the Fed is in a tough spot.\nOn the one hand, with every stock market decline, the market participants expect the Fed to intervene. However, the stock market is still close to all-time highs, and it is unlikely that the Fed will keep intervening verbally, especially because easing is still ongoing and about to increase.\nOn the other hand, the market starts pricing in a stronger economic recovery. Such a recovery should bring tightening from the Fed, and the market already implies that we will see a first rate hike in 2022. More precisely, the market priced in over 80% odds for a twenty-five basis points rate hike in 2022.\nForward-Looking Markets Pressuring the Fed\nOn the same note as in the previous paragraph, the same market prices in another two rate hikes in 2023 and, by the end of 2025, a tightening of monetary conditions of over 125 basis points. This translates into the federal funds rate rising from close to zero currently to 1.25% three years from now.\nThe problem comes from the current conditions. The markets tend to have a forward-looking attitude, and the pricing of assets in the present is based on such an attitude. Because of that, the current monetary conditions appear inappropriate, and the Fed will have a hard time explaining why.\nFor example, the fiscal easing will continue. The months ahead will bring a renewed round of fiscal stimulus, as $1.9 trillion in fiscal aid is about to be unleashed. This is easing, but at the same time, the money will further fuel the economic recovery, and, in turn, more jobs will be created, and so on.\nMore easing comes from the U.S. Treasury as well, forced to unwind its general account at the Fed in the months ahead. Finally, more easing comes even from the Fed, as it keeps purchasing $120 billion a month.\nYet, traders and investors must understand these actions reflect current conditions. Also, all are priced in already.\nAs such, the rise in long-term yields is the one thing that matters. It points to sharp economic recovery, and more easing will not deter but fuel it.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3714749,"gmtCreate":1614863951744,"gmtModify":1635758676360,"authorId":3564049549732787,"author":{"id":3564049549732787,"idStr":"3564049549732787","authorId":3564049549732787,"name":"BnK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/876c107eda4b06e1ce38ffe04defc4e5","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":364535249,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Home","text":"Home","html":"Home"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":364536330,"gmtCreate":1614863152020,"gmtModify":1703482133025,"author":{"id":"3563062889449100","authorId":"3563062889449100","name":"CH88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2f05071bdbc2d159712f6b4d70fb4b","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3563062889449100","authorIdStr":"3563062889449100"},"htmlText":"Slow down the hike please. Like and comment, thank you.&nbsp;","listText":"Slow down the hike please. Like and comment, thank you.&nbsp;","text":"Slow down the hike please. Like and comment, thank you.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364536330","repostId":1125642026,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125642026","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614859626,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1125642026?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-04 20:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?<blockquote>美联储会比预期更早加息吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125642026","media":"Vantage Point","summary":"The U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for t","content":"The U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for the market to understand. So far down the road during the pandemic, the Fed came to the rescue. It eased monetary conditions and also urged Congress to deliver fiscal stimulus.<blockquote>美联储陷入了困境，需要市场付出巨大的沟通努力才能理解。到目前为止，在疫情期间，美联储已经出手相救。它放松了货币条件，还敦促国会提供财政刺激。</blockquote> Its words were heard, and the Fed’s actions eased the world’s desperate need for dollars seen in the spring of 2020. Fast forward to March 2021; the Fed is in a tough spot.<blockquote>美联储的话被听到了，美联储的行动缓解了 2020 年春季世界对美元的迫切需求。快进到2021年3月；美联储处境艰难。</blockquote> On the one hand, with every stock market decline, the market participants expect the Fed to intervene. However, the stock market is still close to all-time highs, and it is unlikely that the Fed will keep intervening verbally, especially because easing is still ongoing and about to increase.<blockquote>一方面，随着股市的每一次下跌，市场参与者都期待美联储进行干预。然而，股市仍接近历史高点，美联储不太可能继续口头干预，特别是因为宽松仍在进行，并即将加码。</blockquote> On the other hand, the market starts pricing in a stronger economic recovery. Such a recovery should bring tightening from the Fed, and the market already implies that we will see a first rate hike in 2022. More precisely, the market priced in over 80% odds for a twenty-five basis points rate hike in 2022.<blockquote>另一方面，市场开始消化更强劲的经济复苏。这样的复苏应该会带来美联储的紧缩政策，市场已经暗示我们将在2022年看到首次加息。更准确地说，市场预计 2022 年加息 25 个基点的可能性超过 80%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bb0de592821a0233494cd8f9029d29e\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"571\">Forward-Looking Markets Pressuring the Fed<blockquote>前瞻性市场给美联储带来压力</blockquote> On the same note as in the previous paragraph, the same market prices in another two rate hikes in 2023 and, by the end of 2025, a tightening of monetary conditions of over 125 basis points. This translates into the federal funds rate rising from close to zero currently to 1.25% three years from now.<blockquote>与上一段相同，2023 年再加息两次，市场价格保持不变，到 2025 年底，货币条件收紧超过 125 个基点。这意味着联邦基金利率从目前的接近于零升至三年后的1.25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007096706cd8851d515cb583e75ff0b6\" tg-width=\"727\" tg-height=\"662\">The problem comes from the current conditions. The markets tend to have a forward-looking attitude, and the pricing of assets in the present is based on such an attitude. Because of that, the current monetary conditions appear inappropriate, and the Fed will have a hard time explaining why.<blockquote>问题来自于目前的条件。市场往往具有前瞻性的态度，目前的资产定价就是基于这种态度。正因为如此，当前的货币状况似乎不合适，美联储将很难解释原因。</blockquote> For example, the fiscal easing will continue. The months ahead will bring a renewed round of fiscal stimulus, as $1.9 trillion in fiscal aid is about to be unleashed. This is easing, but at the same time, the money will further fuel the economic recovery, and, in turn, more jobs will be created, and so on.<blockquote>例如，财政宽松将继续。未来几个月将迎来新一轮财政刺激，1.9万亿美元的财政援助即将释放。这是宽松，但与此同时，这笔钱将进一步推动经济复苏，进而创造更多就业机会，等等。</blockquote> More easing comes from the U.S. Treasury as well, forced to unwind its general account at the Fed in the months ahead. Finally, more easing comes even from the Fed, as it keeps purchasing $120 billion a month.<blockquote>美国财政部也采取了更多宽松政策，被迫在未来几个月解冻其在美联储的一般账户。最后，更多的宽松政策甚至来自美联储，因为它每月继续购买1200亿美元。</blockquote> Yet, traders and investors must understand these actions reflect current conditions. Also, all are priced in already.<blockquote>然而，交易者和投资者必须明白这些行动反映了当前情况。此外，所有这些都已经定价了。</blockquote> As such, the rise in long-term yields is the one thing that matters. It points to sharp economic recovery, and more easing will not deter but fuel it.<blockquote>因此，长期收益率的上升是唯一重要的事情。它表明经济将急剧复苏，更多的宽松政策不会阻止它，而是会助长它。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1614859619341","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?<blockquote>美联储会比预期更早加息吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?<blockquote>美联储会比预期更早加息吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nVantage Point2021-03-04 20:07\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for the market to understand. So far down the road during the pandemic, the Fed came to the rescue. It eased monetary conditions and also urged Congress to deliver fiscal stimulus.<blockquote>美联储陷入了困境，需要市场付出巨大的沟通努力才能理解。到目前为止，在疫情期间，美联储已经出手相救。它放松了货币条件，还敦促国会提供财政刺激。</blockquote> Its words were heard, and the Fed’s actions eased the world’s desperate need for dollars seen in the spring of 2020. Fast forward to March 2021; the Fed is in a tough spot.<blockquote>美联储的话被听到了，美联储的行动缓解了 2020 年春季世界对美元的迫切需求。快进到2021年3月；美联储处境艰难。</blockquote> On the one hand, with every stock market decline, the market participants expect the Fed to intervene. However, the stock market is still close to all-time highs, and it is unlikely that the Fed will keep intervening verbally, especially because easing is still ongoing and about to increase.<blockquote>一方面，随着股市的每一次下跌，市场参与者都期待美联储进行干预。然而，股市仍接近历史高点，美联储不太可能继续口头干预，特别是因为宽松仍在进行，并即将加码。</blockquote> On the other hand, the market starts pricing in a stronger economic recovery. Such a recovery should bring tightening from the Fed, and the market already implies that we will see a first rate hike in 2022. More precisely, the market priced in over 80% odds for a twenty-five basis points rate hike in 2022.<blockquote>另一方面，市场开始消化更强劲的经济复苏。这样的复苏应该会带来美联储的紧缩政策，市场已经暗示我们将在2022年看到首次加息。更准确地说，市场预计 2022 年加息 25 个基点的可能性超过 80%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bb0de592821a0233494cd8f9029d29e\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"571\">Forward-Looking Markets Pressuring the Fed<blockquote>前瞻性市场给美联储带来压力</blockquote> On the same note as in the previous paragraph, the same market prices in another two rate hikes in 2023 and, by the end of 2025, a tightening of monetary conditions of over 125 basis points. This translates into the federal funds rate rising from close to zero currently to 1.25% three years from now.<blockquote>与上一段相同，2023 年再加息两次，市场价格保持不变，到 2025 年底，货币条件收紧超过 125 个基点。这意味着联邦基金利率从目前的接近于零升至三年后的1.25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007096706cd8851d515cb583e75ff0b6\" tg-width=\"727\" tg-height=\"662\">The problem comes from the current conditions. The markets tend to have a forward-looking attitude, and the pricing of assets in the present is based on such an attitude. Because of that, the current monetary conditions appear inappropriate, and the Fed will have a hard time explaining why.<blockquote>问题来自于目前的条件。市场往往具有前瞻性的态度，目前的资产定价就是基于这种态度。正因为如此，当前的货币状况似乎不合适，美联储将很难解释原因。</blockquote> For example, the fiscal easing will continue. The months ahead will bring a renewed round of fiscal stimulus, as $1.9 trillion in fiscal aid is about to be unleashed. This is easing, but at the same time, the money will further fuel the economic recovery, and, in turn, more jobs will be created, and so on.<blockquote>例如，财政宽松将继续。未来几个月将迎来新一轮财政刺激，1.9万亿美元的财政援助即将释放。这是宽松，但与此同时，这笔钱将进一步推动经济复苏，进而创造更多就业机会，等等。</blockquote> More easing comes from the U.S. Treasury as well, forced to unwind its general account at the Fed in the months ahead. Finally, more easing comes even from the Fed, as it keeps purchasing $120 billion a month.<blockquote>美国财政部也采取了更多宽松政策，被迫在未来几个月解冻其在美联储的一般账户。最后，更多的宽松政策甚至来自美联储，因为它每月继续购买1200亿美元。</blockquote> Yet, traders and investors must understand these actions reflect current conditions. Also, all are priced in already.<blockquote>然而，交易者和投资者必须明白这些行动反映了当前情况。此外，所有这些都已经定价了。</blockquote> As such, the rise in long-term yields is the one thing that matters. It points to sharp economic recovery, and more easing will not deter but fuel it.<blockquote>因此，长期收益率的上升是唯一重要的事情。它表明经济将急剧复苏，更多的宽松政策不会阻止它，而是会助长它。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://vantagepointtrading.com/news/will-the-fed-hike-sooner-than-expected/\">Vantage Point</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://vantagepointtrading.com/news/will-the-fed-hike-sooner-than-expected/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125642026","content_text":"The U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for the market to understand. So far down the road during the pandemic, the Fed came to the rescue. It eased monetary conditions and also urged Congress to deliver fiscal stimulus.\nIts words were heard, and the Fed’s actions eased the world’s desperate need for dollars seen in the spring of 2020. Fast forward to March 2021; the Fed is in a tough spot.\nOn the one hand, with every stock market decline, the market participants expect the Fed to intervene. However, the stock market is still close to all-time highs, and it is unlikely that the Fed will keep intervening verbally, especially because easing is still ongoing and about to increase.\nOn the other hand, the market starts pricing in a stronger economic recovery. Such a recovery should bring tightening from the Fed, and the market already implies that we will see a first rate hike in 2022. More precisely, the market priced in over 80% odds for a twenty-five basis points rate hike in 2022.\nForward-Looking Markets Pressuring the Fed\nOn the same note as in the previous paragraph, the same market prices in another two rate hikes in 2023 and, by the end of 2025, a tightening of monetary conditions of over 125 basis points. This translates into the federal funds rate rising from close to zero currently to 1.25% three years from now.\nThe problem comes from the current conditions. The markets tend to have a forward-looking attitude, and the pricing of assets in the present is based on such an attitude. Because of that, the current monetary conditions appear inappropriate, and the Fed will have a hard time explaining why.\nFor example, the fiscal easing will continue. The months ahead will bring a renewed round of fiscal stimulus, as $1.9 trillion in fiscal aid is about to be unleashed. This is easing, but at the same time, the money will further fuel the economic recovery, and, in turn, more jobs will be created, and so on.\nMore easing comes from the U.S. Treasury as well, forced to unwind its general account at the Fed in the months ahead. Finally, more easing comes even from the Fed, as it keeps purchasing $120 billion a month.\nYet, traders and investors must understand these actions reflect current conditions. Also, all are priced in already.\nAs such, the rise in long-term yields is the one thing that matters. It points to sharp economic recovery, and more easing will not deter but fuel it.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3714650,"gmtCreate":1614863329438,"gmtModify":1635758681526,"authorId":3576467281861514,"author":{"id":3576467281861514,"idStr":"3576467281861514","authorId":3576467281861514,"name":"Shannonywt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63a86c17de233950219aed13acbed314","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":364536330,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"},{"id":3714754,"gmtCreate":1614863976292,"gmtModify":1635758675998,"authorId":3573474804628073,"author":{"id":3573474804628073,"idStr":"3573474804628073","authorId":3573474804628073,"name":"股神徒孙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac59f7fc64d3e018af70687bdddf30c2","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":364536330,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"😔","text":"😔","html":"😔"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":364531110,"gmtCreate":1614862980630,"gmtModify":1703482129919,"author":{"id":"3577772174653624","authorId":"3577772174653624","name":"Naux","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/500f0d49fb8e3f02fc052d0bac918451","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3577772174653624","authorIdStr":"3577772174653624"},"htmlText":"Oohh","listText":"Oohh","text":"Oohh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364531110","repostId":1125642026,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125642026","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614859626,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1125642026?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-04 20:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?<blockquote>美联储会比预期更早加息吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125642026","media":"Vantage Point","summary":"The U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for t","content":"The U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for the market to understand. So far down the road during the pandemic, the Fed came to the rescue. It eased monetary conditions and also urged Congress to deliver fiscal stimulus.<blockquote>美联储陷入了困境，需要市场付出巨大的沟通努力才能理解。到目前为止，在疫情期间，美联储已经出手相救。它放松了货币条件，还敦促国会提供财政刺激。</blockquote> Its words were heard, and the Fed’s actions eased the world’s desperate need for dollars seen in the spring of 2020. Fast forward to March 2021; the Fed is in a tough spot.<blockquote>美联储的话被听到了，美联储的行动缓解了 2020 年春季世界对美元的迫切需求。快进到2021年3月；美联储处境艰难。</blockquote> On the one hand, with every stock market decline, the market participants expect the Fed to intervene. However, the stock market is still close to all-time highs, and it is unlikely that the Fed will keep intervening verbally, especially because easing is still ongoing and about to increase.<blockquote>一方面，随着股市的每一次下跌，市场参与者都期待美联储进行干预。然而，股市仍接近历史高点，美联储不太可能继续口头干预，特别是因为宽松仍在进行，并即将加码。</blockquote> On the other hand, the market starts pricing in a stronger economic recovery. Such a recovery should bring tightening from the Fed, and the market already implies that we will see a first rate hike in 2022. More precisely, the market priced in over 80% odds for a twenty-five basis points rate hike in 2022.<blockquote>另一方面，市场开始消化更强劲的经济复苏。这样的复苏应该会带来美联储的紧缩政策，市场已经暗示我们将在2022年看到首次加息。更准确地说，市场预计 2022 年加息 25 个基点的可能性超过 80%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bb0de592821a0233494cd8f9029d29e\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"571\">Forward-Looking Markets Pressuring the Fed<blockquote>前瞻性市场给美联储带来压力</blockquote> On the same note as in the previous paragraph, the same market prices in another two rate hikes in 2023 and, by the end of 2025, a tightening of monetary conditions of over 125 basis points. This translates into the federal funds rate rising from close to zero currently to 1.25% three years from now.<blockquote>与上一段相同，2023 年再加息两次，市场价格保持不变，到 2025 年底，货币条件收紧超过 125 个基点。这意味着联邦基金利率从目前的接近于零升至三年后的1.25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007096706cd8851d515cb583e75ff0b6\" tg-width=\"727\" tg-height=\"662\">The problem comes from the current conditions. The markets tend to have a forward-looking attitude, and the pricing of assets in the present is based on such an attitude. Because of that, the current monetary conditions appear inappropriate, and the Fed will have a hard time explaining why.<blockquote>问题来自于目前的条件。市场往往具有前瞻性的态度，目前的资产定价就是基于这种态度。正因为如此，当前的货币状况似乎不合适，美联储将很难解释原因。</blockquote> For example, the fiscal easing will continue. The months ahead will bring a renewed round of fiscal stimulus, as $1.9 trillion in fiscal aid is about to be unleashed. This is easing, but at the same time, the money will further fuel the economic recovery, and, in turn, more jobs will be created, and so on.<blockquote>例如，财政宽松将继续。未来几个月将迎来新一轮财政刺激，1.9万亿美元的财政援助即将释放。这是宽松，但与此同时，这笔钱将进一步推动经济复苏，进而创造更多就业机会，等等。</blockquote> More easing comes from the U.S. Treasury as well, forced to unwind its general account at the Fed in the months ahead. Finally, more easing comes even from the Fed, as it keeps purchasing $120 billion a month.<blockquote>美国财政部也采取了更多宽松政策，被迫在未来几个月解冻其在美联储的一般账户。最后，更多的宽松政策甚至来自美联储，因为它每月继续购买1200亿美元。</blockquote> Yet, traders and investors must understand these actions reflect current conditions. Also, all are priced in already.<blockquote>然而，交易者和投资者必须明白这些行动反映了当前情况。此外，所有这些都已经定价了。</blockquote> As such, the rise in long-term yields is the one thing that matters. It points to sharp economic recovery, and more easing will not deter but fuel it.<blockquote>因此，长期收益率的上升是唯一重要的事情。它表明经济将急剧复苏，更多的宽松政策不会阻止它，而是会助长它。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1614859619341","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?<blockquote>美联储会比预期更早加息吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?<blockquote>美联储会比预期更早加息吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nVantage Point2021-03-04 20:07\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for the market to understand. So far down the road during the pandemic, the Fed came to the rescue. It eased monetary conditions and also urged Congress to deliver fiscal stimulus.<blockquote>美联储陷入了困境，需要市场付出巨大的沟通努力才能理解。到目前为止，在疫情期间，美联储已经出手相救。它放松了货币条件，还敦促国会提供财政刺激。</blockquote> Its words were heard, and the Fed’s actions eased the world’s desperate need for dollars seen in the spring of 2020. Fast forward to March 2021; the Fed is in a tough spot.<blockquote>美联储的话被听到了，美联储的行动缓解了 2020 年春季世界对美元的迫切需求。快进到2021年3月；美联储处境艰难。</blockquote> On the one hand, with every stock market decline, the market participants expect the Fed to intervene. However, the stock market is still close to all-time highs, and it is unlikely that the Fed will keep intervening verbally, especially because easing is still ongoing and about to increase.<blockquote>一方面，随着股市的每一次下跌，市场参与者都期待美联储进行干预。然而，股市仍接近历史高点，美联储不太可能继续口头干预，特别是因为宽松仍在进行，并即将加码。</blockquote> On the other hand, the market starts pricing in a stronger economic recovery. Such a recovery should bring tightening from the Fed, and the market already implies that we will see a first rate hike in 2022. More precisely, the market priced in over 80% odds for a twenty-five basis points rate hike in 2022.<blockquote>另一方面，市场开始消化更强劲的经济复苏。这样的复苏应该会带来美联储的紧缩政策，市场已经暗示我们将在2022年看到首次加息。更准确地说，市场预计 2022 年加息 25 个基点的可能性超过 80%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bb0de592821a0233494cd8f9029d29e\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"571\">Forward-Looking Markets Pressuring the Fed<blockquote>前瞻性市场给美联储带来压力</blockquote> On the same note as in the previous paragraph, the same market prices in another two rate hikes in 2023 and, by the end of 2025, a tightening of monetary conditions of over 125 basis points. This translates into the federal funds rate rising from close to zero currently to 1.25% three years from now.<blockquote>与上一段相同，2023 年再加息两次，市场价格保持不变，到 2025 年底，货币条件收紧超过 125 个基点。这意味着联邦基金利率从目前的接近于零升至三年后的1.25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007096706cd8851d515cb583e75ff0b6\" tg-width=\"727\" tg-height=\"662\">The problem comes from the current conditions. The markets tend to have a forward-looking attitude, and the pricing of assets in the present is based on such an attitude. Because of that, the current monetary conditions appear inappropriate, and the Fed will have a hard time explaining why.<blockquote>问题来自于目前的条件。市场往往具有前瞻性的态度，目前的资产定价就是基于这种态度。正因为如此，当前的货币状况似乎不合适，美联储将很难解释原因。</blockquote> For example, the fiscal easing will continue. The months ahead will bring a renewed round of fiscal stimulus, as $1.9 trillion in fiscal aid is about to be unleashed. This is easing, but at the same time, the money will further fuel the economic recovery, and, in turn, more jobs will be created, and so on.<blockquote>例如，财政宽松将继续。未来几个月将迎来新一轮财政刺激，1.9万亿美元的财政援助即将释放。这是宽松，但与此同时，这笔钱将进一步推动经济复苏，进而创造更多就业机会，等等。</blockquote> More easing comes from the U.S. Treasury as well, forced to unwind its general account at the Fed in the months ahead. Finally, more easing comes even from the Fed, as it keeps purchasing $120 billion a month.<blockquote>美国财政部也采取了更多宽松政策，被迫在未来几个月解冻其在美联储的一般账户。最后，更多的宽松政策甚至来自美联储，因为它每月继续购买1200亿美元。</blockquote> Yet, traders and investors must understand these actions reflect current conditions. Also, all are priced in already.<blockquote>然而，交易者和投资者必须明白这些行动反映了当前情况。此外，所有这些都已经定价了。</blockquote> As such, the rise in long-term yields is the one thing that matters. It points to sharp economic recovery, and more easing will not deter but fuel it.<blockquote>因此，长期收益率的上升是唯一重要的事情。它表明经济将急剧复苏，更多的宽松政策不会阻止它，而是会助长它。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://vantagepointtrading.com/news/will-the-fed-hike-sooner-than-expected/\">Vantage Point</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://vantagepointtrading.com/news/will-the-fed-hike-sooner-than-expected/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125642026","content_text":"The U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for the market to understand. So far down the road during the pandemic, the Fed came to the rescue. It eased monetary conditions and also urged Congress to deliver fiscal stimulus.\nIts words were heard, and the Fed’s actions eased the world’s desperate need for dollars seen in the spring of 2020. Fast forward to March 2021; the Fed is in a tough spot.\nOn the one hand, with every stock market decline, the market participants expect the Fed to intervene. However, the stock market is still close to all-time highs, and it is unlikely that the Fed will keep intervening verbally, especially because easing is still ongoing and about to increase.\nOn the other hand, the market starts pricing in a stronger economic recovery. Such a recovery should bring tightening from the Fed, and the market already implies that we will see a first rate hike in 2022. More precisely, the market priced in over 80% odds for a twenty-five basis points rate hike in 2022.\nForward-Looking Markets Pressuring the Fed\nOn the same note as in the previous paragraph, the same market prices in another two rate hikes in 2023 and, by the end of 2025, a tightening of monetary conditions of over 125 basis points. This translates into the federal funds rate rising from close to zero currently to 1.25% three years from now.\nThe problem comes from the current conditions. The markets tend to have a forward-looking attitude, and the pricing of assets in the present is based on such an attitude. Because of that, the current monetary conditions appear inappropriate, and the Fed will have a hard time explaining why.\nFor example, the fiscal easing will continue. The months ahead will bring a renewed round of fiscal stimulus, as $1.9 trillion in fiscal aid is about to be unleashed. This is easing, but at the same time, the money will further fuel the economic recovery, and, in turn, more jobs will be created, and so on.\nMore easing comes from the U.S. Treasury as well, forced to unwind its general account at the Fed in the months ahead. Finally, more easing comes even from the Fed, as it keeps purchasing $120 billion a month.\nYet, traders and investors must understand these actions reflect current conditions. Also, all are priced in already.\nAs such, the rise in long-term yields is the one thing that matters. It points to sharp economic recovery, and more easing will not deter but fuel it.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":364506713,"gmtCreate":1614861363932,"gmtModify":1703482102967,"author":{"id":"3550535031428558","authorId":"3550535031428558","name":"JonL","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc42c3c100f7d272ed108a53f0f012a4","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3550535031428558","authorIdStr":"3550535031428558"},"htmlText":"It looks that the possibly is quite high once majority of the population are vaccinated and travel resumes.&nbsp;","listText":"It looks that the possibly is quite high once majority of the population are vaccinated and travel resumes.&nbsp;","text":"It looks that the possibly is quite high once majority of the population are vaccinated and travel resumes.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364506713","repostId":1125642026,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125642026","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614859626,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1125642026?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-04 20:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?<blockquote>美联储会比预期更早加息吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125642026","media":"Vantage Point","summary":"The U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for t","content":"The U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for the market to understand. So far down the road during the pandemic, the Fed came to the rescue. It eased monetary conditions and also urged Congress to deliver fiscal stimulus.<blockquote>美联储陷入了困境，需要市场付出巨大的沟通努力才能理解。到目前为止，在疫情期间，美联储已经出手相救。它放松了货币条件，还敦促国会提供财政刺激。</blockquote> Its words were heard, and the Fed’s actions eased the world’s desperate need for dollars seen in the spring of 2020. Fast forward to March 2021; the Fed is in a tough spot.<blockquote>美联储的话被听到了，美联储的行动缓解了 2020 年春季世界对美元的迫切需求。快进到2021年3月；美联储处境艰难。</blockquote> On the one hand, with every stock market decline, the market participants expect the Fed to intervene. However, the stock market is still close to all-time highs, and it is unlikely that the Fed will keep intervening verbally, especially because easing is still ongoing and about to increase.<blockquote>一方面，随着股市的每一次下跌，市场参与者都期待美联储进行干预。然而，股市仍接近历史高点，美联储不太可能继续口头干预，特别是因为宽松仍在进行，并即将加码。</blockquote> On the other hand, the market starts pricing in a stronger economic recovery. Such a recovery should bring tightening from the Fed, and the market already implies that we will see a first rate hike in 2022. More precisely, the market priced in over 80% odds for a twenty-five basis points rate hike in 2022.<blockquote>另一方面，市场开始消化更强劲的经济复苏。这样的复苏应该会带来美联储的紧缩政策，市场已经暗示我们将在2022年看到首次加息。更准确地说，市场预计 2022 年加息 25 个基点的可能性超过 80%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bb0de592821a0233494cd8f9029d29e\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"571\">Forward-Looking Markets Pressuring the Fed<blockquote>前瞻性市场给美联储带来压力</blockquote> On the same note as in the previous paragraph, the same market prices in another two rate hikes in 2023 and, by the end of 2025, a tightening of monetary conditions of over 125 basis points. This translates into the federal funds rate rising from close to zero currently to 1.25% three years from now.<blockquote>与上一段相同，2023 年再加息两次，市场价格保持不变，到 2025 年底，货币条件收紧超过 125 个基点。这意味着联邦基金利率从目前的接近于零升至三年后的1.25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007096706cd8851d515cb583e75ff0b6\" tg-width=\"727\" tg-height=\"662\">The problem comes from the current conditions. The markets tend to have a forward-looking attitude, and the pricing of assets in the present is based on such an attitude. Because of that, the current monetary conditions appear inappropriate, and the Fed will have a hard time explaining why.<blockquote>问题来自于目前的条件。市场往往具有前瞻性的态度，目前的资产定价就是基于这种态度。正因为如此，当前的货币状况似乎不合适，美联储将很难解释原因。</blockquote> For example, the fiscal easing will continue. The months ahead will bring a renewed round of fiscal stimulus, as $1.9 trillion in fiscal aid is about to be unleashed. This is easing, but at the same time, the money will further fuel the economic recovery, and, in turn, more jobs will be created, and so on.<blockquote>例如，财政宽松将继续。未来几个月将迎来新一轮财政刺激，1.9万亿美元的财政援助即将释放。这是宽松，但与此同时，这笔钱将进一步推动经济复苏，进而创造更多就业机会，等等。</blockquote> More easing comes from the U.S. Treasury as well, forced to unwind its general account at the Fed in the months ahead. Finally, more easing comes even from the Fed, as it keeps purchasing $120 billion a month.<blockquote>美国财政部也采取了更多宽松政策，被迫在未来几个月解冻其在美联储的一般账户。最后，更多的宽松政策甚至来自美联储，因为它每月继续购买1200亿美元。</blockquote> Yet, traders and investors must understand these actions reflect current conditions. Also, all are priced in already.<blockquote>然而，交易者和投资者必须明白这些行动反映了当前情况。此外，所有这些都已经定价了。</blockquote> As such, the rise in long-term yields is the one thing that matters. It points to sharp economic recovery, and more easing will not deter but fuel it.<blockquote>因此，长期收益率的上升是唯一重要的事情。它表明经济将急剧复苏，更多的宽松政策不会阻止它，而是会助长它。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1614859619341","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?<blockquote>美联储会比预期更早加息吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?<blockquote>美联储会比预期更早加息吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nVantage Point2021-03-04 20:07\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for the market to understand. So far down the road during the pandemic, the Fed came to the rescue. It eased monetary conditions and also urged Congress to deliver fiscal stimulus.<blockquote>美联储陷入了困境，需要市场付出巨大的沟通努力才能理解。到目前为止，在疫情期间，美联储已经出手相救。它放松了货币条件，还敦促国会提供财政刺激。</blockquote> Its words were heard, and the Fed’s actions eased the world’s desperate need for dollars seen in the spring of 2020. Fast forward to March 2021; the Fed is in a tough spot.<blockquote>美联储的话被听到了，美联储的行动缓解了 2020 年春季世界对美元的迫切需求。快进到2021年3月；美联储处境艰难。</blockquote> On the one hand, with every stock market decline, the market participants expect the Fed to intervene. However, the stock market is still close to all-time highs, and it is unlikely that the Fed will keep intervening verbally, especially because easing is still ongoing and about to increase.<blockquote>一方面，随着股市的每一次下跌，市场参与者都期待美联储进行干预。然而，股市仍接近历史高点，美联储不太可能继续口头干预，特别是因为宽松仍在进行，并即将加码。</blockquote> On the other hand, the market starts pricing in a stronger economic recovery. Such a recovery should bring tightening from the Fed, and the market already implies that we will see a first rate hike in 2022. More precisely, the market priced in over 80% odds for a twenty-five basis points rate hike in 2022.<blockquote>另一方面，市场开始消化更强劲的经济复苏。这样的复苏应该会带来美联储的紧缩政策，市场已经暗示我们将在2022年看到首次加息。更准确地说，市场预计 2022 年加息 25 个基点的可能性超过 80%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bb0de592821a0233494cd8f9029d29e\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"571\">Forward-Looking Markets Pressuring the Fed<blockquote>前瞻性市场给美联储带来压力</blockquote> On the same note as in the previous paragraph, the same market prices in another two rate hikes in 2023 and, by the end of 2025, a tightening of monetary conditions of over 125 basis points. This translates into the federal funds rate rising from close to zero currently to 1.25% three years from now.<blockquote>与上一段相同，2023 年再加息两次，市场价格保持不变，到 2025 年底，货币条件收紧超过 125 个基点。这意味着联邦基金利率从目前的接近于零升至三年后的1.25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007096706cd8851d515cb583e75ff0b6\" tg-width=\"727\" tg-height=\"662\">The problem comes from the current conditions. The markets tend to have a forward-looking attitude, and the pricing of assets in the present is based on such an attitude. Because of that, the current monetary conditions appear inappropriate, and the Fed will have a hard time explaining why.<blockquote>问题来自于目前的条件。市场往往具有前瞻性的态度，目前的资产定价就是基于这种态度。正因为如此，当前的货币状况似乎不合适，美联储将很难解释原因。</blockquote> For example, the fiscal easing will continue. The months ahead will bring a renewed round of fiscal stimulus, as $1.9 trillion in fiscal aid is about to be unleashed. This is easing, but at the same time, the money will further fuel the economic recovery, and, in turn, more jobs will be created, and so on.<blockquote>例如，财政宽松将继续。未来几个月将迎来新一轮财政刺激，1.9万亿美元的财政援助即将释放。这是宽松，但与此同时，这笔钱将进一步推动经济复苏，进而创造更多就业机会，等等。</blockquote> More easing comes from the U.S. Treasury as well, forced to unwind its general account at the Fed in the months ahead. Finally, more easing comes even from the Fed, as it keeps purchasing $120 billion a month.<blockquote>美国财政部也采取了更多宽松政策，被迫在未来几个月解冻其在美联储的一般账户。最后，更多的宽松政策甚至来自美联储，因为它每月继续购买1200亿美元。</blockquote> Yet, traders and investors must understand these actions reflect current conditions. Also, all are priced in already.<blockquote>然而，交易者和投资者必须明白这些行动反映了当前情况。此外，所有这些都已经定价了。</blockquote> As such, the rise in long-term yields is the one thing that matters. It points to sharp economic recovery, and more easing will not deter but fuel it.<blockquote>因此，长期收益率的上升是唯一重要的事情。它表明经济将急剧复苏，更多的宽松政策不会阻止它，而是会助长它。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://vantagepointtrading.com/news/will-the-fed-hike-sooner-than-expected/\">Vantage Point</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://vantagepointtrading.com/news/will-the-fed-hike-sooner-than-expected/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125642026","content_text":"The U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for the market to understand. So far down the road during the pandemic, the Fed came to the rescue. It eased monetary conditions and also urged Congress to deliver fiscal stimulus.\nIts words were heard, and the Fed’s actions eased the world’s desperate need for dollars seen in the spring of 2020. Fast forward to March 2021; the Fed is in a tough spot.\nOn the one hand, with every stock market decline, the market participants expect the Fed to intervene. However, the stock market is still close to all-time highs, and it is unlikely that the Fed will keep intervening verbally, especially because easing is still ongoing and about to increase.\nOn the other hand, the market starts pricing in a stronger economic recovery. Such a recovery should bring tightening from the Fed, and the market already implies that we will see a first rate hike in 2022. More precisely, the market priced in over 80% odds for a twenty-five basis points rate hike in 2022.\nForward-Looking Markets Pressuring the Fed\nOn the same note as in the previous paragraph, the same market prices in another two rate hikes in 2023 and, by the end of 2025, a tightening of monetary conditions of over 125 basis points. This translates into the federal funds rate rising from close to zero currently to 1.25% three years from now.\nThe problem comes from the current conditions. The markets tend to have a forward-looking attitude, and the pricing of assets in the present is based on such an attitude. Because of that, the current monetary conditions appear inappropriate, and the Fed will have a hard time explaining why.\nFor example, the fiscal easing will continue. The months ahead will bring a renewed round of fiscal stimulus, as $1.9 trillion in fiscal aid is about to be unleashed. This is easing, but at the same time, the money will further fuel the economic recovery, and, in turn, more jobs will be created, and so on.\nMore easing comes from the U.S. Treasury as well, forced to unwind its general account at the Fed in the months ahead. Finally, more easing comes even from the Fed, as it keeps purchasing $120 billion a month.\nYet, traders and investors must understand these actions reflect current conditions. Also, all are priced in already.\nAs such, the rise in long-term yields is the one thing that matters. It points to sharp economic recovery, and more easing will not deter but fuel it.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":364508010,"gmtCreate":1614861174230,"gmtModify":1703482100034,"author":{"id":"3573632654965791","authorId":"3573632654965791","name":"Matchapie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0695b1edb7a0aee8cbc2a9874745b1e6","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3573632654965791","authorIdStr":"3573632654965791"},"htmlText":"mmmmm","listText":"mmmmm","text":"mmmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364508010","repostId":1125642026,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125642026","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614859626,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1125642026?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-04 20:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?<blockquote>美联储会比预期更早加息吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125642026","media":"Vantage Point","summary":"The U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for t","content":"The U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for the market to understand. So far down the road during the pandemic, the Fed came to the rescue. It eased monetary conditions and also urged Congress to deliver fiscal stimulus.<blockquote>美联储陷入了困境，需要市场付出巨大的沟通努力才能理解。到目前为止，在疫情期间，美联储已经出手相救。它放松了货币条件，还敦促国会提供财政刺激。</blockquote> Its words were heard, and the Fed’s actions eased the world’s desperate need for dollars seen in the spring of 2020. Fast forward to March 2021; the Fed is in a tough spot.<blockquote>美联储的话被听到了，美联储的行动缓解了 2020 年春季世界对美元的迫切需求。快进到2021年3月；美联储处境艰难。</blockquote> On the one hand, with every stock market decline, the market participants expect the Fed to intervene. However, the stock market is still close to all-time highs, and it is unlikely that the Fed will keep intervening verbally, especially because easing is still ongoing and about to increase.<blockquote>一方面，随着股市的每一次下跌，市场参与者都期待美联储进行干预。然而，股市仍接近历史高点，美联储不太可能继续口头干预，特别是因为宽松仍在进行，并即将加码。</blockquote> On the other hand, the market starts pricing in a stronger economic recovery. Such a recovery should bring tightening from the Fed, and the market already implies that we will see a first rate hike in 2022. More precisely, the market priced in over 80% odds for a twenty-five basis points rate hike in 2022.<blockquote>另一方面，市场开始消化更强劲的经济复苏。这样的复苏应该会带来美联储的紧缩政策，市场已经暗示我们将在2022年看到首次加息。更准确地说，市场预计 2022 年加息 25 个基点的可能性超过 80%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bb0de592821a0233494cd8f9029d29e\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"571\">Forward-Looking Markets Pressuring the Fed<blockquote>前瞻性市场给美联储带来压力</blockquote> On the same note as in the previous paragraph, the same market prices in another two rate hikes in 2023 and, by the end of 2025, a tightening of monetary conditions of over 125 basis points. This translates into the federal funds rate rising from close to zero currently to 1.25% three years from now.<blockquote>与上一段相同，2023 年再加息两次，市场价格保持不变，到 2025 年底，货币条件收紧超过 125 个基点。这意味着联邦基金利率从目前的接近于零升至三年后的1.25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007096706cd8851d515cb583e75ff0b6\" tg-width=\"727\" tg-height=\"662\">The problem comes from the current conditions. The markets tend to have a forward-looking attitude, and the pricing of assets in the present is based on such an attitude. Because of that, the current monetary conditions appear inappropriate, and the Fed will have a hard time explaining why.<blockquote>问题来自于目前的条件。市场往往具有前瞻性的态度，目前的资产定价就是基于这种态度。正因为如此，当前的货币状况似乎不合适，美联储将很难解释原因。</blockquote> For example, the fiscal easing will continue. The months ahead will bring a renewed round of fiscal stimulus, as $1.9 trillion in fiscal aid is about to be unleashed. This is easing, but at the same time, the money will further fuel the economic recovery, and, in turn, more jobs will be created, and so on.<blockquote>例如，财政宽松将继续。未来几个月将迎来新一轮财政刺激，1.9万亿美元的财政援助即将释放。这是宽松，但与此同时，这笔钱将进一步推动经济复苏，进而创造更多就业机会，等等。</blockquote> More easing comes from the U.S. Treasury as well, forced to unwind its general account at the Fed in the months ahead. Finally, more easing comes even from the Fed, as it keeps purchasing $120 billion a month.<blockquote>美国财政部也采取了更多宽松政策，被迫在未来几个月解冻其在美联储的一般账户。最后，更多的宽松政策甚至来自美联储，因为它每月继续购买1200亿美元。</blockquote> Yet, traders and investors must understand these actions reflect current conditions. Also, all are priced in already.<blockquote>然而，交易者和投资者必须明白这些行动反映了当前情况。此外，所有这些都已经定价了。</blockquote> As such, the rise in long-term yields is the one thing that matters. It points to sharp economic recovery, and more easing will not deter but fuel it.<blockquote>因此，长期收益率的上升是唯一重要的事情。它表明经济将急剧复苏，更多的宽松政策不会阻止它，而是会助长它。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1614859619341","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?<blockquote>美联储会比预期更早加息吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill the Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?<blockquote>美联储会比预期更早加息吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nVantage Point2021-03-04 20:07\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for the market to understand. So far down the road during the pandemic, the Fed came to the rescue. It eased monetary conditions and also urged Congress to deliver fiscal stimulus.<blockquote>美联储陷入了困境，需要市场付出巨大的沟通努力才能理解。到目前为止，在疫情期间，美联储已经出手相救。它放松了货币条件，还敦促国会提供财政刺激。</blockquote> Its words were heard, and the Fed’s actions eased the world’s desperate need for dollars seen in the spring of 2020. Fast forward to March 2021; the Fed is in a tough spot.<blockquote>美联储的话被听到了，美联储的行动缓解了 2020 年春季世界对美元的迫切需求。快进到2021年3月；美联储处境艰难。</blockquote> On the one hand, with every stock market decline, the market participants expect the Fed to intervene. However, the stock market is still close to all-time highs, and it is unlikely that the Fed will keep intervening verbally, especially because easing is still ongoing and about to increase.<blockquote>一方面，随着股市的每一次下跌，市场参与者都期待美联储进行干预。然而，股市仍接近历史高点，美联储不太可能继续口头干预，特别是因为宽松仍在进行，并即将加码。</blockquote> On the other hand, the market starts pricing in a stronger economic recovery. Such a recovery should bring tightening from the Fed, and the market already implies that we will see a first rate hike in 2022. More precisely, the market priced in over 80% odds for a twenty-five basis points rate hike in 2022.<blockquote>另一方面，市场开始消化更强劲的经济复苏。这样的复苏应该会带来美联储的紧缩政策，市场已经暗示我们将在2022年看到首次加息。更准确地说，市场预计 2022 年加息 25 个基点的可能性超过 80%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bb0de592821a0233494cd8f9029d29e\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"571\">Forward-Looking Markets Pressuring the Fed<blockquote>前瞻性市场给美联储带来压力</blockquote> On the same note as in the previous paragraph, the same market prices in another two rate hikes in 2023 and, by the end of 2025, a tightening of monetary conditions of over 125 basis points. This translates into the federal funds rate rising from close to zero currently to 1.25% three years from now.<blockquote>与上一段相同，2023 年再加息两次，市场价格保持不变，到 2025 年底，货币条件收紧超过 125 个基点。这意味着联邦基金利率从目前的接近于零升至三年后的1.25%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007096706cd8851d515cb583e75ff0b6\" tg-width=\"727\" tg-height=\"662\">The problem comes from the current conditions. The markets tend to have a forward-looking attitude, and the pricing of assets in the present is based on such an attitude. Because of that, the current monetary conditions appear inappropriate, and the Fed will have a hard time explaining why.<blockquote>问题来自于目前的条件。市场往往具有前瞻性的态度，目前的资产定价就是基于这种态度。正因为如此，当前的货币状况似乎不合适，美联储将很难解释原因。</blockquote> For example, the fiscal easing will continue. The months ahead will bring a renewed round of fiscal stimulus, as $1.9 trillion in fiscal aid is about to be unleashed. This is easing, but at the same time, the money will further fuel the economic recovery, and, in turn, more jobs will be created, and so on.<blockquote>例如，财政宽松将继续。未来几个月将迎来新一轮财政刺激，1.9万亿美元的财政援助即将释放。这是宽松，但与此同时，这笔钱将进一步推动经济复苏，进而创造更多就业机会，等等。</blockquote> More easing comes from the U.S. Treasury as well, forced to unwind its general account at the Fed in the months ahead. Finally, more easing comes even from the Fed, as it keeps purchasing $120 billion a month.<blockquote>美国财政部也采取了更多宽松政策，被迫在未来几个月解冻其在美联储的一般账户。最后，更多的宽松政策甚至来自美联储，因为它每月继续购买1200亿美元。</blockquote> Yet, traders and investors must understand these actions reflect current conditions. Also, all are priced in already.<blockquote>然而，交易者和投资者必须明白这些行动反映了当前情况。此外，所有这些都已经定价了。</blockquote> As such, the rise in long-term yields is the one thing that matters. It points to sharp economic recovery, and more easing will not deter but fuel it.<blockquote>因此，长期收益率的上升是唯一重要的事情。它表明经济将急剧复苏，更多的宽松政策不会阻止它，而是会助长它。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://vantagepointtrading.com/news/will-the-fed-hike-sooner-than-expected/\">Vantage Point</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://vantagepointtrading.com/news/will-the-fed-hike-sooner-than-expected/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125642026","content_text":"The U.S. Fed is caught in a difficult place that will require tremendous communication efforts for the market to understand. So far down the road during the pandemic, the Fed came to the rescue. It eased monetary conditions and also urged Congress to deliver fiscal stimulus.\nIts words were heard, and the Fed’s actions eased the world’s desperate need for dollars seen in the spring of 2020. Fast forward to March 2021; the Fed is in a tough spot.\nOn the one hand, with every stock market decline, the market participants expect the Fed to intervene. However, the stock market is still close to all-time highs, and it is unlikely that the Fed will keep intervening verbally, especially because easing is still ongoing and about to increase.\nOn the other hand, the market starts pricing in a stronger economic recovery. Such a recovery should bring tightening from the Fed, and the market already implies that we will see a first rate hike in 2022. More precisely, the market priced in over 80% odds for a twenty-five basis points rate hike in 2022.\nForward-Looking Markets Pressuring the Fed\nOn the same note as in the previous paragraph, the same market prices in another two rate hikes in 2023 and, by the end of 2025, a tightening of monetary conditions of over 125 basis points. This translates into the federal funds rate rising from close to zero currently to 1.25% three years from now.\nThe problem comes from the current conditions. The markets tend to have a forward-looking attitude, and the pricing of assets in the present is based on such an attitude. Because of that, the current monetary conditions appear inappropriate, and the Fed will have a hard time explaining why.\nFor example, the fiscal easing will continue. The months ahead will bring a renewed round of fiscal stimulus, as $1.9 trillion in fiscal aid is about to be unleashed. This is easing, but at the same time, the money will further fuel the economic recovery, and, in turn, more jobs will be created, and so on.\nMore easing comes from the U.S. Treasury as well, forced to unwind its general account at the Fed in the months ahead. Finally, more easing comes even from the Fed, as it keeps purchasing $120 billion a month.\nYet, traders and investors must understand these actions reflect current conditions. Also, all are priced in already.\nAs such, the rise in long-term yields is the one thing that matters. It points to sharp economic recovery, and more easing will not deter but fuel it.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3714495,"gmtCreate":1614862130053,"gmtModify":1635758687020,"authorId":3567542794414618,"author":{"id":3567542794414618,"idStr":"3567542794414618","authorId":3567542794414618,"name":"Kate88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04503555a7b61cde3257e8fdb65ed26d","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":364508010,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Nice","text":"Nice","html":"Nice"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":46,"commentSize":12,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}