Stocks Have Had Their Worst January Since 2008. That’s Creating Buying Opportunities_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

Stocks Have Had Their Worst January Since 2008. That’s Creating Buying Opportunities

Barron's2022-01-31

The 2022 market was always going to be a tug of war between earnings and interest rates. Corporate profit growth fueled by the reopening has come up against contracting valuations and expectations of ...

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Corporate profit growth fueled by the reopening has come up against contracting valuations and expectations of ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-volatility-investing-opportunities-51643420533?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1610680873436","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks Have Had Their Worst January Since 2008. 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That’s Creating Buying Opportunities\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-31 07:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-volatility-investing-opportunities-51643420533?mod=hp_LEAD_1>Barron's</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nThe 2022 market was always going to be a tug of war between earnings and interest rates. Corporate profit growth fueled by the reopening has come up against contracting valuations and expectations of ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-volatility-investing-opportunities-51643420533?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".IXIC","symbol_name":"NASDAQ Composite","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-volatility-investing-opportunities-51643420533?mod=hp_LEAD_1","article_id":"1125536439","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125536439","pubTimestamp":1643586675,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1610680873436","name":"Barron's"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"The 2022 market was always going to be a tug of war between earnings and interest rates. Corporate p","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"barrons.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"translate_title":"股市经历了自2008年以来最糟糕的一月份。这创造了购买机会","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"The 2022 market was always going to be a tug of war between earnings and interest rates. Corporate profit growth fueled by the reopening has come up against contracting valuations and expectations of tighter monetary policy. While the battle has led to a chaotic period for stocks, the past few weeks have played out logically and according to script. Financial markets are entering their next chapter, and investors are finally rushing to adapt.“If the Fed really wants to fight inflation, that means higher long-term interest rates and long-duration assets will not work,” says Richard Bernstein, CEO and chief investment officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors, a global macro investment manager with about $16 billion in assets. “The problem is that everyone came into the year long long-duration assets.”Long-duration assets, including many growth stocks and long-term bonds, are particularly sensitive to changes in interest rates. As rates rise, the present value of future cash flows declines, lowering today’s prices.The S&P 500 index is down 7% this year. (Friday’s late-day rally helped stocks avoid a fourth-straight week of declines.) Losses in the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite are even greater, while the small-cap Russell 2000 is in a bear market. For many investors, the selloff feels unfamiliar—there hasn’t been a 10% correction in the S&P 500 since March 2020, and the index had just one 5% pullback in all of 2021.But 2022 could actually be closer to normal, with the recent low-volatility conditions more the exception. Since the S&P 500 was created in 1957, the index has averaged about one 10% decline and more than three 5% declines every year, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The good news is that selloffs create opportunities, and 2022’s is unlikely to be different.Jack Ablin, CIO at Cresset Capital, calls January’s drop a “garden variety technical correction,” as opposed to a more pernicious cyclical downturn or systemic problem facing the market. Stocks aren’t falling because analysts are lowering profit forecasts en masse, or because economists are predicting a recession on the horizon. Instead, the correction has taken place because of how richly the market is valued.“Valuations may have gotten out of whack, and now we’re experiencing a revaluation of the market because interest rates are going up,” says Ablin, whose firm manages about $22 billion. “It’s like ripping a Band-Aid off.”Great ExpectationsOn Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made it clear that it’s not the central bank’s job to put a floor under the market—the so-called Fed put. He remarked that asset prices remain “somewhat elevated,” and noted that households had plenty of savings and could withstand further declines before the situation begins to be a meaningful problem for the U.S. economy.The Fed is set to begin lifting its target interest-rate range from near zero as soon as March, with bond-market pricing suggesting a total of five quarter-point increases in 2022. Back in October, the market had priced in just one hike. That shift in expectations has been felt in Treasuries, where yields have risen, and in high-multiple stocks and other particularly pricey assets.Buzzy technology stocks trading for eye-watering multiples of future expected revenues, unprofitable initial public offerings, special purpose acquisition company mergers, meme stocks, and cryptocurrencies are among the biggest losers this year. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury note’s yield has risen by 0.28 of a percentage point in 2022, to 1.78%, as its price has declined.Credit markets and many overseas stock indexes have held up much better than the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, and the price of gold is down, confirming that the recent scare isn’t about a general flight to safety.“Fundamentals, generally speaking, remain quite stable and in good shape,” says Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, J.P. Morgan’s chief U.S. equity strategist. “It’s really a question of multiples.”Powering ThroughIn fact, the early 2022 selloff has fallen neatly along valuation lines. Through Wednesday, S&P 500 stocks with low price/earnings ratios had outperformed those with high multiples by 11.5 percentage points since the start of 2022, according to Patrick Palfrey, co-head of quantitative research at Credit Suisse.The same dynamic is true across sectors. That pattern should hold up as interest rates and bond yields continue to rise this year. Other defensive stock characteristics—think low leverage or high returns on equity—have been less of a factor.“The valuation gap between the expensive and cheaper stocks is still very high, relative to history,” Palfrey says. “There’s a fair amount of opportunity for cheap companies to continue outperforming from here.”One way in which 2022 might differ is that traditionally cheap sectors are getting even cheaper because of postpandemic, reopening patterns. That’s as pricier growth stocks face tough comparisons to a strong 2021.Energy stocks are expected to grow earnings per share by 45% this year, with industrials up by 39%. Technology, meanwhile, is seen increasing EPS by just 9%.It’s another sign that the economy isn’t the problem.Volatility Spike“A hawkish Fed and interest-rate increases don’t necessarily equate to the end of the bull market, as long as economic growth remains strong,” says Nuveen CIO Saira Malik.Malik, who also manages the $139 billion College Retirement Equities fund, favors companies that can control their own fate in an inflationary environment and growing economy. Energy stocks are one option. They offer commodity exposure that should insulate them against inflation while benefiting from a global economic reopening. Malik points to Pioneer Natural Resources (ticker: PXD) and Valero Energy (VLO), in particular.Malik also likes some established front-office software companies whose stocks have been punished. Those include Salesforce.com (CRM), which is down 28% since mid-November, and HubSpot (HUBS), off 46%. Unlike stay-at-home pandemic winners, Salesforce and HubSpot should benefit from a return to the office and increased corporate spending.Given inflation uncertainty, volatile markets, and a rising-rate environment, Cresset’s Ablin recommends a similar quality bent, with a focus on dividend-paying shares. He likes Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), 3M (MMM), Caterpillar (CAT), Automatic Data Processing (ADP), and McDonald’s (MCD).In the near term, some of the big losers in January—technology stocks, biotechs, and small-caps—could see a rebound, says Lakos-Bujas, but not because uncertainty around inflation and Fed policy are going away. Rather, the market just looks to be in oversold territory.Investor sentiment—based on the Investor Sentiment Survey from the American Association of Individual Investors, along with the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index—is at its most bearish level since the March 2020 selloff. Those are contrarian indicators, with history suggesting positive market returns going forward when they’ve reached similar levels. It recalls the Warren Buffett adage about being fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.Valuations are now relatively undemanding, as well. The S&P 500 closed the week with a forward price/earnings ratio of 20.1 times. That’s only one point higher than the index’s valuation at the end of 2019, before the Covid-19 pandemic hit, and before Tesla (TSLA) joined the S&P 500.Even traders have gotten more defensive, with the S&P 500 put-to-call ratio spiking since the start of the year. That’s a sign investors are looking to hedge their market exposure, according to Michael Green, a portfolio manager and chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, which offers several exchange-traded funds with options-based strategies. The firm’s largest ETF is the Simplify US Equity PLUS Downside Convexity (SPD), which aims to protect returns during volatile drawdowns.If the past week felt particularly turbulent, that’s because market volatility can breed more volatility, Green observes. As demand rises for put options—which increase in value as the price of a security falls—options writers often add to the selling pressure. In order to hedge their market exposure and limit risk, they may short the same stocks they’ve sold puts on. That has contributed to the massive swings seen in recent days, and it works in both directions.For investors, the volatility is painful, but selling out now would be a mistake. Instead, investors should use the selloff to rebalance their portfolios.“When you see incredible volatility, that’s when you need to be maximally dispassionate,” Bernstein says. “Volatility tells you that leadership is changing in the market.”Growth stocks won’t be the leaders in the next phase—bad news for tech and good news for more sleepy corners of the market. And over the past weeks, investors have finally woken up to that idea—seemingly all at once.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":633063417,"gmtCreate":1643592803566,"gmtModify":1643592803874,"author":{"id":"3581919031797456","authorId":"3581919031797456","name":"JeffreyNeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd016aa2ec66a904f877445461310e24","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3581919031797456","idStr":"3581919031797456"},"htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633063417","repostId":1125536439,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125536439","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1643586675,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1125536439?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-31 07:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks Have Had Their Worst January Since 2008. That’s Creating Buying Opportunities<blockquote>股市经历了自2008年以来最糟糕的1月份。这创造了购买机会</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125536439","media":"Barron's","summary":"The 2022 market was always going to be a tug of war between earnings and interest rates. Corporate p","content":"<html><head></head><body><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/340a7d499e07e9f14ea1774eba422745\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><blockquote><html><head></head><body></body></html></blockquote>The 2022 market was always going to be a tug of war between earnings and interest rates. Corporate profit growth fueled by the reopening has come up against contracting valuations and expectations of tighter monetary policy. While the battle has led to a chaotic period for stocks, the past few weeks have played out logically and according to script. Financial markets are entering their next chapter, and investors are finally rushing to adapt.<blockquote>2022年的市场将永远是盈利和利率之间的拉锯战。重新开放推动的企业利润增长与估值收缩和货币政策收紧的预期背道而驰。虽然这场战斗导致了股市的混乱时期，但过去几周的表现是合乎逻辑的，按照剧本进行的。金融市场正在进入下一个篇章，投资者终于开始急于适应。</blockquote>“If the Fed really wants to fight inflation, that means higher long-term interest rates and long-duration assets will not work,” says Richard Bernstein, CEO and chief investment officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors, a global macro investment manager with about $16 billion in assets. “The problem is that everyone came into the year long long-duration assets.”<blockquote>全球宏观投资管理公司理查德·伯恩斯坦顾问公司(Richard Bernstein Advisors)首席执行官兼首席投资官理查德·伯恩斯坦(Richard Bernstein Advisors)表示：“如果美联储真的想对抗通胀，那就意味着更高的长期利率和长期资产不会起作用。”资产约160亿美元。“问题是，今年每个人都持有长期资产。”</blockquote>Long-duration assets, including many growth stocks and long-term bonds, are particularly sensitive to changes in interest rates. As rates rise, the present value of future cash flows declines, lowering today’s prices.<blockquote>长期资产，包括许多成长型股票和长期债券，对利率变化特别敏感。随着利率上升，未来现金流的现值下降，降低了今天的价格。</blockquote>The S&amp;P 500 index is down 7% this year. (Friday’s late-day rally helped stocks avoid a fourth-straight week of declines.) Losses in the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite are even greater, while the small-cap Russell 2000 is in a bear market. For many investors, the selloff feels unfamiliar—there hasn’t been a 10% correction in the S&amp;P 500 since March 2020, and the index had just one 5% pullback in all of 2021.<blockquote>标普500指数今年下跌了7%。（周五尾盘的反弹帮助股市避免了连续第四周的下跌。）以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数的跌幅更大，而小盘股Russell 2000指数则处于熊市。对于许多投资者来说，抛售感觉很陌生——自2020年3月以来，标普500还没有出现过10%的回调，而且该指数在2021年全年仅出现过一次5%的回调。</blockquote>But 2022 could actually be closer to normal, with the recent low-volatility conditions more the exception. Since the S&amp;P 500 was created in 1957, the index has averaged about one 10% decline and more than three 5% declines every year, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The good news is that selloffs create opportunities, and 2022’s is unlikely to be different.<blockquote>但2022年实际上可能更接近正常水平，最近的低波动性状况更多是个例外。根据道琼斯市场数据，自1957年标普500成立以来，该指数平均每年下跌约一次10%，下跌超过三次5%。好消息是抛售创造了机会，2022年的情况不太可能有所不同。</blockquote>Jack Ablin, CIO at Cresset Capital, calls January’s drop a “garden variety technical correction,” as opposed to a more pernicious cyclical downturn or systemic problem facing the market. Stocks aren’t falling because analysts are lowering profit forecasts en masse, or because economists are predicting a recession on the horizon. Instead, the correction has taken place because of how richly the market is valued.<blockquote>评级Cresset Capital首席信息官Jack Ablin表示，1月份的下跌是“普通技术调整”，而不是市场面临的更有害的周期性衰退或系统性问题。股市下跌并不是因为分析师集体下调利润预测，也不是因为经济学家预测经济衰退即将来临。相反，调整的发生是因为市场的估值非常高。</blockquote>“Valuations may have gotten out of whack, and now we’re experiencing a revaluation of the market because interest rates are going up,” says Ablin, whose firm manages about $22 billion. “It’s like ripping a Band-Aid off.”<blockquote>阿布林表示：“估值可能已经失控，现在我们正在经历市场重估，因为利率正在上升。”他的公司管理着约220亿美元的资产。“这就像撕掉创可贴一样。”</blockquote>Great Expectations<blockquote>远大前程</blockquote>On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made it clear that it’s not the central bank’s job to put a floor under the market—the so-called Fed put. He remarked that asset prices remain “somewhat elevated,” and noted that households had plenty of savings and could withstand further declines before the situation begins to be a meaningful problem for the U.S. economy.<blockquote>周三，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔明确表示，为市场设定底线——即所谓的美联储看跌期权——不是央行的工作。他表示，资产价格仍然“有点高”，并指出家庭有充足的储蓄，可以在这种情况开始成为美国经济的一个有意义的问题之前承受进一步的下跌。</blockquote>The Fed is set to begin lifting its target interest-rate range from near zero as soon as March, with bond-market pricing suggesting a total of five quarter-point increases in 2022. Back in October, the market had priced in just one hike. That shift in expectations has been felt in Treasuries, where yields have risen, and in high-multiple stocks and other particularly pricey assets.<blockquote>美联储最早将于3月份开始将目标利率区间从接近零的水平上调，债券市场定价显示2022年将总共加息5个25个基点。早在十月份，市场就已经消化了一次加息。收益率上升的美国国债、高市盈率股票和其他特别昂贵的资产都感受到了这种预期的转变。</blockquote>Buzzy technology stocks trading for eye-watering multiples of future expected revenues, unprofitable initial public offerings, special purpose acquisition company mergers, meme stocks, and cryptocurrencies are among the biggest losers this year. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury note’s yield has risen by 0.28 of a percentage point in 2022, to 1.78%, as its price has declined.<blockquote>热门科技股的交易价格是未来预期收入的惊人倍数、无利可图的首次公开募股、特殊目的收购公司合并、模因股票和加密货币都是今年跌幅最大的股票。与此同时，随着价格下跌，10年期国债收益率在2022年上涨了0.28个百分点，至1.78%。</blockquote>Credit markets and many overseas stock indexes have held up much better than the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq, and the price of gold is down, confirming that the recent scare isn’t about a general flight to safety.<blockquote>信贷市场和许多海外股指的表现远好于标普500和纳斯达克，金价下跌，证实最近的恐慌并不是普遍避险。</blockquote>“Fundamentals, generally speaking, remain quite stable and in good shape,” says Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, J.P. Morgan’s chief U.S. equity strategist. “It’s really a question of multiples.”<blockquote>摩根大通首席美国股票策略师Dubravko Lakos-Bujas表示：“总体而言，基本面仍然相当稳定且状况良好。”“这确实是一个倍数的问题。”</blockquote>Powering Through<blockquote>通电</blockquote>In fact, the early 2022 selloff has fallen neatly along valuation lines. Through Wednesday, S&amp;P 500 stocks with low price/earnings ratios had outperformed those with high multiples by 11.5 percentage points since the start of 2022, according to Patrick Palfrey, co-head of quantitative research at Credit Suisse.<blockquote>事实上，2022年初的抛售已经沿着估值线整齐地下跌。瑞士信贷量化研究联席主管Patrick Palfrey表示，截至周三，自2022年初以来，市盈率较低的标普500股票的表现优于市盈率较高的股票11.5个百分点。</blockquote>The same dynamic is true across sectors. That pattern should hold up as interest rates and bond yields continue to rise this year. Other defensive stock characteristics—think low leverage or high returns on equity—have been less of a factor.<blockquote>不同行业的情况也是如此。随着今年利率和债券收益率继续上升，这种模式应该会持续下去。其他防御性股票特征——比如低杠杆或高股本回报率——并不是一个重要因素。</blockquote>“The valuation gap between the expensive and cheaper stocks is still very high, relative to history,” Palfrey says. “There’s a fair amount of opportunity for cheap companies to continue outperforming from here.”<blockquote>“相对于历史，昂贵股票和便宜股票之间的估值差距仍然非常高，”帕尔弗里说。“廉价公司有相当多的机会继续跑赢大盘。”</blockquote>One way in which 2022 might differ is that traditionally cheap sectors are getting even cheaper because of postpandemic, reopening patterns. That’s as pricier growth stocks face tough comparisons to a strong 2021.<blockquote>2022年可能有所不同的一个方面是，由于大流行后的重新开放模式，传统上便宜的行业变得更加便宜。这是因为价格较高的成长型股票面临着与强劲的2021年的艰难比较。</blockquote>Energy stocks are expected to grow earnings per share by 45% this year, with industrials up by 39%. Technology, meanwhile, is seen increasing EPS by just 9%.<blockquote>能源股今年的每股收益预计将增长45%，工业股将增长39%。与此同时，科技行业的每股收益仅增长了9%。</blockquote>It’s another sign that the economy isn’t the problem.<blockquote>这是经济不是问题的另一个迹象。</blockquote>Volatility Spike<blockquote>波动性峰值</blockquote>“A hawkish Fed and interest-rate increases don’t necessarily equate to the end of the bull market, as long as economic growth remains strong,” says Nuveen CIO Saira Malik.<blockquote>Nuveen首席信息官Saira Malik表示：“只要经济增长保持强劲，美联储鹰派和加息并不一定意味着牛市的结束。”</blockquote>Malik, who also manages the $139 billion College Retirement Equities fund, favors companies that can control their own fate in an inflationary environment and growing economy. Energy stocks are one option. They offer commodity exposure that should insulate them against inflation while benefiting from a global economic reopening. Malik points to Pioneer Natural Resources (ticker: PXD) and Valero Energy (VLO), in particular.<blockquote>马利克还管理着1390亿美元的大学退休股票基金，他青睐能够在通胀环境和经济增长中控制自己命运的公司。能源股是一种选择。它们提供的大宗商品敞口应该可以使它们免受通胀的影响，同时受益于全球经济的重新开放。马利克特别提到了先锋自然资源公司（股票代码：PXD）和瓦莱罗能源公司（VLO）。</blockquote>Malik also likes some established front-office software companies whose stocks have been punished. Those include Salesforce.com (CRM), which is down 28% since mid-November, and HubSpot (HUBS), off 46%. Unlike stay-at-home pandemic winners, Salesforce and HubSpot should benefit from a return to the office and increased corporate spending.<blockquote>马利克还喜欢一些股票受到惩罚的老牌前台软件公司。其中包括Salesforce.com(CRM)，自11月中旬以来下跌了28%，以及HubSpot(HUBS)，下跌了46%。与呆在家里的疫情赢家不同，Salesforce和HubSpot应该会受益于重返办公室和企业支出的增加。</blockquote>Given inflation uncertainty, volatile markets, and a rising-rate environment, Cresset’s Ablin recommends a similar quality bent, with a focus on dividend-paying shares. He likes Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ), 3M (MMM), Caterpillar (CAT), Automatic Data Processing (ADP), and McDonald’s (MCD).<blockquote>鉴于通胀不确定性、市场波动和利率上升的环境，Cresset的阿布林建议采取类似的质量倾向，重点关注派息股票。他喜欢雅培实验室（ABT）、强生（JNJ）、3M（3M）、卡特彼勒（CAT）、自动数据处理（ADP）和麦当劳（MCD）。</blockquote>In the near term, some of the big losers in January—technology stocks, biotechs, and small-caps—could see a rebound, says Lakos-Bujas, but not because uncertainty around inflation and Fed policy are going away. Rather, the market just looks to be in oversold territory.<blockquote>拉科斯-布哈斯表示，短期内，1月份的一些大输家——科技股、生物技术股和小盘股——可能会出现反弹，但这并不是因为通胀和美联储政策的不确定性正在消失。相反，市场看起来只是处于超卖区域。</blockquote>Investor sentiment—based on the Investor Sentiment Survey from the American Association of Individual Investors, along with the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index—is at its most bearish level since the March 2020 selloff. Those are contrarian indicators, with history suggesting positive market returns going forward when they’ve reached similar levels. It recalls the Warren Buffett adage about being fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.<blockquote>根据美国个人投资者协会的投资者情绪调查以及Hulbert Stock Newsletter情绪指数，投资者情绪处于2020年3月抛售以来的最悲观水平。这些都是逆向指标，历史表明，当它们达到类似水平时，未来的市场回报将为正。它让人想起沃伦·巴菲特的格言：当别人贪婪时要恐惧，当别人恐惧时要贪婪。</blockquote>Valuations are now relatively undemanding, as well. The S&amp;P 500 closed the week with a forward price/earnings ratio of 20.1 times. That’s only one point higher than the index’s valuation at the end of 2019, before the Covid-19 pandemic hit, and before Tesla (TSLA) joined the S&amp;P 500.<blockquote>现在估值也相对不高。标普500本周收盘远期市盈率为20.1倍。这仅比2019年底、Covid-19大流行爆发之前、特斯拉(TSLA)加入标普500之前该指数的估值高出一个点。</blockquote>Even traders have gotten more defensive, with the S&amp;P 500 put-to-call ratio spiking since the start of the year. That’s a sign investors are looking to hedge their market exposure, according to Michael Green, a portfolio manager and chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, which offers several exchange-traded funds with options-based strategies. The firm’s largest ETF is the Simplify US Equity PLUS Downside Convexity (SPD), which aims to protect returns during volatile drawdowns.<blockquote>就连交易员也变得更加防御性，标普500看跌期权与看涨期权比率自今年年初以来飙升。Simplify Asset Management的投资组合经理兼首席策略师迈克尔·格林(Michael Green)表示，这表明投资者正在寻求对冲市场敞口。该公司提供多种采用期权策略的交易所交易基金。该公司最大的ETF是Simplify US Equity PLUS Downside Convexity(SPD)，旨在在波动回撤期间保护回报。</blockquote>If the past week felt particularly turbulent, that’s because market volatility can breed more volatility, Green observes. As demand rises for put options—which increase in value as the price of a security falls—options writers often add to the selling pressure. In order to hedge their market exposure and limit risk, they may short the same stocks they’ve sold puts on. That has contributed to the massive swings seen in recent days, and it works in both directions.<blockquote>格林观察到，如果过去一周感觉特别动荡，那是因为市场波动会滋生更大的波动。随着看跌期权的需求上升（随着证券价格下跌，看跌期权的价值也会增加），期权作者往往会增加抛售压力。为了对冲市场敞口并限制风险，他们可能会做空已卖出看跌期权的相同股票。这导致了最近几天出现的巨大波动，而且是双向的。</blockquote>For investors, the volatility is painful, but selling out now would be a mistake. Instead, investors should use the selloff to rebalance their portfolios.<blockquote>对于投资者来说，波动是痛苦的，但现在抛售将是一个错误。相反，投资者应该利用抛售来重新平衡他们的投资组合。</blockquote>“When you see incredible volatility, that’s when you need to be maximally dispassionate,” Bernstein says. “Volatility tells you that leadership is changing in the market.”<blockquote>“当你看到令人难以置信的波动时，你就需要保持最大限度的冷静，”伯恩斯坦说。“波动性告诉你市场的领导层正在发生变化。”</blockquote>Growth stocks won’t be the leaders in the next phase—bad news for tech and good news for more sleepy corners of the market. And over the past weeks, investors have finally woken up to that idea—seemingly all at once.<blockquote>成长型股票不会成为下一阶段的领头羊——对科技股来说是坏消息，对市场更沉睡的角落来说是好消息。在过去的几周里，投资者终于意识到了这个想法——似乎是一下子。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks Have Had Their Worst January Since 2008. That’s Creating Buying Opportunities<blockquote>股市经历了自2008年以来最糟糕的1月份。这创造了购买机会</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks Have Had Their Worst January Since 2008. That’s Creating Buying Opportunities<blockquote>股市经历了自2008年以来最糟糕的1月份。这创造了购买机会</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2022-01-31 07:51\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/340a7d499e07e9f14ea1774eba422745\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><blockquote><html><head></head><body></body></html></blockquote>The 2022 market was always going to be a tug of war between earnings and interest rates. Corporate profit growth fueled by the reopening has come up against contracting valuations and expectations of tighter monetary policy. While the battle has led to a chaotic period for stocks, the past few weeks have played out logically and according to script. Financial markets are entering their next chapter, and investors are finally rushing to adapt.<blockquote>2022年的市场将永远是盈利和利率之间的拉锯战。重新开放推动的企业利润增长与估值收缩和货币政策收紧的预期背道而驰。虽然这场战斗导致了股市的混乱时期，但过去几周的表现是合乎逻辑的，按照剧本进行的。金融市场正在进入下一个篇章，投资者终于开始急于适应。</blockquote>“If the Fed really wants to fight inflation, that means higher long-term interest rates and long-duration assets will not work,” says Richard Bernstein, CEO and chief investment officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors, a global macro investment manager with about $16 billion in assets. “The problem is that everyone came into the year long long-duration assets.”<blockquote>全球宏观投资管理公司理查德·伯恩斯坦顾问公司(Richard Bernstein Advisors)首席执行官兼首席投资官理查德·伯恩斯坦(Richard Bernstein Advisors)表示：“如果美联储真的想对抗通胀，那就意味着更高的长期利率和长期资产不会起作用。”资产约160亿美元。“问题是，今年每个人都持有长期资产。”</blockquote>Long-duration assets, including many growth stocks and long-term bonds, are particularly sensitive to changes in interest rates. As rates rise, the present value of future cash flows declines, lowering today’s prices.<blockquote>长期资产，包括许多成长型股票和长期债券，对利率变化特别敏感。随着利率上升，未来现金流的现值下降，降低了今天的价格。</blockquote>The S&amp;P 500 index is down 7% this year. (Friday’s late-day rally helped stocks avoid a fourth-straight week of declines.) Losses in the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite are even greater, while the small-cap Russell 2000 is in a bear market. For many investors, the selloff feels unfamiliar—there hasn’t been a 10% correction in the S&amp;P 500 since March 2020, and the index had just one 5% pullback in all of 2021.<blockquote>标普500指数今年下跌了7%。（周五尾盘的反弹帮助股市避免了连续第四周的下跌。）以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数的跌幅更大，而小盘股Russell 2000指数则处于熊市。对于许多投资者来说，抛售感觉很陌生——自2020年3月以来，标普500还没有出现过10%的回调，而且该指数在2021年全年仅出现过一次5%的回调。</blockquote>But 2022 could actually be closer to normal, with the recent low-volatility conditions more the exception. Since the S&amp;P 500 was created in 1957, the index has averaged about one 10% decline and more than three 5% declines every year, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The good news is that selloffs create opportunities, and 2022’s is unlikely to be different.<blockquote>但2022年实际上可能更接近正常水平，最近的低波动性状况更多是个例外。根据道琼斯市场数据，自1957年标普500成立以来，该指数平均每年下跌约一次10%，下跌超过三次5%。好消息是抛售创造了机会，2022年的情况不太可能有所不同。</blockquote>Jack Ablin, CIO at Cresset Capital, calls January’s drop a “garden variety technical correction,” as opposed to a more pernicious cyclical downturn or systemic problem facing the market. Stocks aren’t falling because analysts are lowering profit forecasts en masse, or because economists are predicting a recession on the horizon. Instead, the correction has taken place because of how richly the market is valued.<blockquote>评级Cresset Capital首席信息官Jack Ablin表示，1月份的下跌是“普通技术调整”，而不是市场面临的更有害的周期性衰退或系统性问题。股市下跌并不是因为分析师集体下调利润预测，也不是因为经济学家预测经济衰退即将来临。相反，调整的发生是因为市场的估值非常高。</blockquote>“Valuations may have gotten out of whack, and now we’re experiencing a revaluation of the market because interest rates are going up,” says Ablin, whose firm manages about $22 billion. “It’s like ripping a Band-Aid off.”<blockquote>阿布林表示：“估值可能已经失控，现在我们正在经历市场重估，因为利率正在上升。”他的公司管理着约220亿美元的资产。“这就像撕掉创可贴一样。”</blockquote>Great Expectations<blockquote>远大前程</blockquote>On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made it clear that it’s not the central bank’s job to put a floor under the market—the so-called Fed put. He remarked that asset prices remain “somewhat elevated,” and noted that households had plenty of savings and could withstand further declines before the situation begins to be a meaningful problem for the U.S. economy.<blockquote>周三，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔明确表示，为市场设定底线——即所谓的美联储看跌期权——不是央行的工作。他表示，资产价格仍然“有点高”，并指出家庭有充足的储蓄，可以在这种情况开始成为美国经济的一个有意义的问题之前承受进一步的下跌。</blockquote>The Fed is set to begin lifting its target interest-rate range from near zero as soon as March, with bond-market pricing suggesting a total of five quarter-point increases in 2022. Back in October, the market had priced in just one hike. That shift in expectations has been felt in Treasuries, where yields have risen, and in high-multiple stocks and other particularly pricey assets.<blockquote>美联储最早将于3月份开始将目标利率区间从接近零的水平上调，债券市场定价显示2022年将总共加息5个25个基点。早在十月份，市场就已经消化了一次加息。收益率上升的美国国债、高市盈率股票和其他特别昂贵的资产都感受到了这种预期的转变。</blockquote>Buzzy technology stocks trading for eye-watering multiples of future expected revenues, unprofitable initial public offerings, special purpose acquisition company mergers, meme stocks, and cryptocurrencies are among the biggest losers this year. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury note’s yield has risen by 0.28 of a percentage point in 2022, to 1.78%, as its price has declined.<blockquote>热门科技股的交易价格是未来预期收入的惊人倍数、无利可图的首次公开募股、特殊目的收购公司合并、模因股票和加密货币都是今年跌幅最大的股票。与此同时，随着价格下跌，10年期国债收益率在2022年上涨了0.28个百分点，至1.78%。</blockquote>Credit markets and many overseas stock indexes have held up much better than the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq, and the price of gold is down, confirming that the recent scare isn’t about a general flight to safety.<blockquote>信贷市场和许多海外股指的表现远好于标普500和纳斯达克，金价下跌，证实最近的恐慌并不是普遍避险。</blockquote>“Fundamentals, generally speaking, remain quite stable and in good shape,” says Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, J.P. Morgan’s chief U.S. equity strategist. “It’s really a question of multiples.”<blockquote>摩根大通首席美国股票策略师Dubravko Lakos-Bujas表示：“总体而言，基本面仍然相当稳定且状况良好。”“这确实是一个倍数的问题。”</blockquote>Powering Through<blockquote>通电</blockquote>In fact, the early 2022 selloff has fallen neatly along valuation lines. Through Wednesday, S&amp;P 500 stocks with low price/earnings ratios had outperformed those with high multiples by 11.5 percentage points since the start of 2022, according to Patrick Palfrey, co-head of quantitative research at Credit Suisse.<blockquote>事实上，2022年初的抛售已经沿着估值线整齐地下跌。瑞士信贷量化研究联席主管Patrick Palfrey表示，截至周三，自2022年初以来，市盈率较低的标普500股票的表现优于市盈率较高的股票11.5个百分点。</blockquote>The same dynamic is true across sectors. That pattern should hold up as interest rates and bond yields continue to rise this year. Other defensive stock characteristics—think low leverage or high returns on equity—have been less of a factor.<blockquote>不同行业的情况也是如此。随着今年利率和债券收益率继续上升，这种模式应该会持续下去。其他防御性股票特征——比如低杠杆或高股本回报率——并不是一个重要因素。</blockquote>“The valuation gap between the expensive and cheaper stocks is still very high, relative to history,” Palfrey says. “There’s a fair amount of opportunity for cheap companies to continue outperforming from here.”<blockquote>“相对于历史，昂贵股票和便宜股票之间的估值差距仍然非常高，”帕尔弗里说。“廉价公司有相当多的机会继续跑赢大盘。”</blockquote>One way in which 2022 might differ is that traditionally cheap sectors are getting even cheaper because of postpandemic, reopening patterns. That’s as pricier growth stocks face tough comparisons to a strong 2021.<blockquote>2022年可能有所不同的一个方面是，由于大流行后的重新开放模式，传统上便宜的行业变得更加便宜。这是因为价格较高的成长型股票面临着与强劲的2021年的艰难比较。</blockquote>Energy stocks are expected to grow earnings per share by 45% this year, with industrials up by 39%. Technology, meanwhile, is seen increasing EPS by just 9%.<blockquote>能源股今年的每股收益预计将增长45%，工业股将增长39%。与此同时，科技行业的每股收益仅增长了9%。</blockquote>It’s another sign that the economy isn’t the problem.<blockquote>这是经济不是问题的另一个迹象。</blockquote>Volatility Spike<blockquote>波动性峰值</blockquote>“A hawkish Fed and interest-rate increases don’t necessarily equate to the end of the bull market, as long as economic growth remains strong,” says Nuveen CIO Saira Malik.<blockquote>Nuveen首席信息官Saira Malik表示：“只要经济增长保持强劲，美联储鹰派和加息并不一定意味着牛市的结束。”</blockquote>Malik, who also manages the $139 billion College Retirement Equities fund, favors companies that can control their own fate in an inflationary environment and growing economy. Energy stocks are one option. They offer commodity exposure that should insulate them against inflation while benefiting from a global economic reopening. Malik points to Pioneer Natural Resources (ticker: PXD) and Valero Energy (VLO), in particular.<blockquote>马利克还管理着1390亿美元的大学退休股票基金，他青睐能够在通胀环境和经济增长中控制自己命运的公司。能源股是一种选择。它们提供的大宗商品敞口应该可以使它们免受通胀的影响，同时受益于全球经济的重新开放。马利克特别提到了先锋自然资源公司（股票代码：PXD）和瓦莱罗能源公司（VLO）。</blockquote>Malik also likes some established front-office software companies whose stocks have been punished. Those include Salesforce.com (CRM), which is down 28% since mid-November, and HubSpot (HUBS), off 46%. Unlike stay-at-home pandemic winners, Salesforce and HubSpot should benefit from a return to the office and increased corporate spending.<blockquote>马利克还喜欢一些股票受到惩罚的老牌前台软件公司。其中包括Salesforce.com(CRM)，自11月中旬以来下跌了28%，以及HubSpot(HUBS)，下跌了46%。与呆在家里的疫情赢家不同，Salesforce和HubSpot应该会受益于重返办公室和企业支出的增加。</blockquote>Given inflation uncertainty, volatile markets, and a rising-rate environment, Cresset’s Ablin recommends a similar quality bent, with a focus on dividend-paying shares. He likes Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ), 3M (MMM), Caterpillar (CAT), Automatic Data Processing (ADP), and McDonald’s (MCD).<blockquote>鉴于通胀不确定性、市场波动和利率上升的环境，Cresset的阿布林建议采取类似的质量倾向，重点关注派息股票。他喜欢雅培实验室（ABT）、强生（JNJ）、3M（3M）、卡特彼勒（CAT）、自动数据处理（ADP）和麦当劳（MCD）。</blockquote>In the near term, some of the big losers in January—technology stocks, biotechs, and small-caps—could see a rebound, says Lakos-Bujas, but not because uncertainty around inflation and Fed policy are going away. Rather, the market just looks to be in oversold territory.<blockquote>拉科斯-布哈斯表示，短期内，1月份的一些大输家——科技股、生物技术股和小盘股——可能会出现反弹，但这并不是因为通胀和美联储政策的不确定性正在消失。相反，市场看起来只是处于超卖区域。</blockquote>Investor sentiment—based on the Investor Sentiment Survey from the American Association of Individual Investors, along with the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index—is at its most bearish level since the March 2020 selloff. Those are contrarian indicators, with history suggesting positive market returns going forward when they’ve reached similar levels. It recalls the Warren Buffett adage about being fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.<blockquote>根据美国个人投资者协会的投资者情绪调查以及Hulbert Stock Newsletter情绪指数，投资者情绪处于2020年3月抛售以来的最悲观水平。这些都是逆向指标，历史表明，当它们达到类似水平时，未来的市场回报将为正。它让人想起沃伦·巴菲特的格言：当别人贪婪时要恐惧，当别人恐惧时要贪婪。</blockquote>Valuations are now relatively undemanding, as well. The S&amp;P 500 closed the week with a forward price/earnings ratio of 20.1 times. That’s only one point higher than the index’s valuation at the end of 2019, before the Covid-19 pandemic hit, and before Tesla (TSLA) joined the S&amp;P 500.<blockquote>现在估值也相对不高。标普500本周收盘远期市盈率为20.1倍。这仅比2019年底、Covid-19大流行爆发之前、特斯拉(TSLA)加入标普500之前该指数的估值高出一个点。</blockquote>Even traders have gotten more defensive, with the S&amp;P 500 put-to-call ratio spiking since the start of the year. That’s a sign investors are looking to hedge their market exposure, according to Michael Green, a portfolio manager and chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, which offers several exchange-traded funds with options-based strategies. The firm’s largest ETF is the Simplify US Equity PLUS Downside Convexity (SPD), which aims to protect returns during volatile drawdowns.<blockquote>就连交易员也变得更加防御性，标普500看跌期权与看涨期权比率自今年年初以来飙升。Simplify Asset Management的投资组合经理兼首席策略师迈克尔·格林(Michael Green)表示，这表明投资者正在寻求对冲市场敞口。该公司提供多种采用期权策略的交易所交易基金。该公司最大的ETF是Simplify US Equity PLUS Downside Convexity(SPD)，旨在在波动回撤期间保护回报。</blockquote>If the past week felt particularly turbulent, that’s because market volatility can breed more volatility, Green observes. As demand rises for put options—which increase in value as the price of a security falls—options writers often add to the selling pressure. In order to hedge their market exposure and limit risk, they may short the same stocks they’ve sold puts on. That has contributed to the massive swings seen in recent days, and it works in both directions.<blockquote>格林观察到，如果过去一周感觉特别动荡，那是因为市场波动会滋生更大的波动。随着看跌期权的需求上升（随着证券价格下跌，看跌期权的价值也会增加），期权作者往往会增加抛售压力。为了对冲市场敞口并限制风险，他们可能会做空已卖出看跌期权的相同股票。这导致了最近几天出现的巨大波动，而且是双向的。</blockquote>For investors, the volatility is painful, but selling out now would be a mistake. Instead, investors should use the selloff to rebalance their portfolios.<blockquote>对于投资者来说，波动是痛苦的，但现在抛售将是一个错误。相反，投资者应该利用抛售来重新平衡他们的投资组合。</blockquote>“When you see incredible volatility, that’s when you need to be maximally dispassionate,” Bernstein says. “Volatility tells you that leadership is changing in the market.”<blockquote>“当你看到令人难以置信的波动时，你就需要保持最大限度的冷静，”伯恩斯坦说。“波动性告诉你市场的领导层正在发生变化。”</blockquote>Growth stocks won’t be the leaders in the next phase—bad news for tech and good news for more sleepy corners of the market. And over the past weeks, investors have finally woken up to that idea—seemingly all at once.<blockquote>成长型股票不会成为下一阶段的领头羊——对科技股来说是坏消息，对市场更沉睡的角落来说是好消息。在过去的几周里，投资者终于意识到了这个想法——似乎是一下子。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-volatility-investing-opportunities-51643420533?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-volatility-investing-opportunities-51643420533?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125536439","content_text":"The 2022 market was always going to be a tug of war between earnings and interest rates. Corporate profit growth fueled by the reopening has come up against contracting valuations and expectations of tighter monetary policy. While the battle has led to a chaotic period for stocks, the past few weeks have played out logically and according to script. Financial markets are entering their next chapter, and investors are finally rushing to adapt.“If the Fed really wants to fight inflation, that means higher long-term interest rates and long-duration assets will not work,” says Richard Bernstein, CEO and chief investment officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors, a global macro investment manager with about $16 billion in assets. “The problem is that everyone came into the year long long-duration assets.”Long-duration assets, including many growth stocks and long-term bonds, are particularly sensitive to changes in interest rates. As rates rise, the present value of future cash flows declines, lowering today’s prices.The S&P 500 index is down 7% this year. (Friday’s late-day rally helped stocks avoid a fourth-straight week of declines.) Losses in the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite are even greater, while the small-cap Russell 2000 is in a bear market. For many investors, the selloff feels unfamiliar—there hasn’t been a 10% correction in the S&P 500 since March 2020, and the index had just one 5% pullback in all of 2021.But 2022 could actually be closer to normal, with the recent low-volatility conditions more the exception. Since the S&P 500 was created in 1957, the index has averaged about one 10% decline and more than three 5% declines every year, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The good news is that selloffs create opportunities, and 2022’s is unlikely to be different.Jack Ablin, CIO at Cresset Capital, calls January’s drop a “garden variety technical correction,” as opposed to a more pernicious cyclical downturn or systemic problem facing the market. Stocks aren’t falling because analysts are lowering profit forecasts en masse, or because economists are predicting a recession on the horizon. Instead, the correction has taken place because of how richly the market is valued.“Valuations may have gotten out of whack, and now we’re experiencing a revaluation of the market because interest rates are going up,” says Ablin, whose firm manages about $22 billion. “It’s like ripping a Band-Aid off.”Great ExpectationsOn Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made it clear that it’s not the central bank’s job to put a floor under the market—the so-called Fed put. He remarked that asset prices remain “somewhat elevated,” and noted that households had plenty of savings and could withstand further declines before the situation begins to be a meaningful problem for the U.S. economy.The Fed is set to begin lifting its target interest-rate range from near zero as soon as March, with bond-market pricing suggesting a total of five quarter-point increases in 2022. Back in October, the market had priced in just one hike. That shift in expectations has been felt in Treasuries, where yields have risen, and in high-multiple stocks and other particularly pricey assets.Buzzy technology stocks trading for eye-watering multiples of future expected revenues, unprofitable initial public offerings, special purpose acquisition company mergers, meme stocks, and cryptocurrencies are among the biggest losers this year. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury note’s yield has risen by 0.28 of a percentage point in 2022, to 1.78%, as its price has declined.Credit markets and many overseas stock indexes have held up much better than the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, and the price of gold is down, confirming that the recent scare isn’t about a general flight to safety.“Fundamentals, generally speaking, remain quite stable and in good shape,” says Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, J.P. Morgan’s chief U.S. equity strategist. “It’s really a question of multiples.”Powering ThroughIn fact, the early 2022 selloff has fallen neatly along valuation lines. Through Wednesday, S&P 500 stocks with low price/earnings ratios had outperformed those with high multiples by 11.5 percentage points since the start of 2022, according to Patrick Palfrey, co-head of quantitative research at Credit Suisse.The same dynamic is true across sectors. That pattern should hold up as interest rates and bond yields continue to rise this year. Other defensive stock characteristics—think low leverage or high returns on equity—have been less of a factor.“The valuation gap between the expensive and cheaper stocks is still very high, relative to history,” Palfrey says. “There’s a fair amount of opportunity for cheap companies to continue outperforming from here.”One way in which 2022 might differ is that traditionally cheap sectors are getting even cheaper because of postpandemic, reopening patterns. That’s as pricier growth stocks face tough comparisons to a strong 2021.Energy stocks are expected to grow earnings per share by 45% this year, with industrials up by 39%. Technology, meanwhile, is seen increasing EPS by just 9%.It’s another sign that the economy isn’t the problem.Volatility Spike“A hawkish Fed and interest-rate increases don’t necessarily equate to the end of the bull market, as long as economic growth remains strong,” says Nuveen CIO Saira Malik.Malik, who also manages the $139 billion College Retirement Equities fund, favors companies that can control their own fate in an inflationary environment and growing economy. Energy stocks are one option. They offer commodity exposure that should insulate them against inflation while benefiting from a global economic reopening. Malik points to Pioneer Natural Resources (ticker: PXD) and Valero Energy (VLO), in particular.Malik also likes some established front-office software companies whose stocks have been punished. Those include Salesforce.com (CRM), which is down 28% since mid-November, and HubSpot (HUBS), off 46%. Unlike stay-at-home pandemic winners, Salesforce and HubSpot should benefit from a return to the office and increased corporate spending.Given inflation uncertainty, volatile markets, and a rising-rate environment, Cresset’s Ablin recommends a similar quality bent, with a focus on dividend-paying shares. He likes Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), 3M (MMM), Caterpillar (CAT), Automatic Data Processing (ADP), and McDonald’s (MCD).In the near term, some of the big losers in January—technology stocks, biotechs, and small-caps—could see a rebound, says Lakos-Bujas, but not because uncertainty around inflation and Fed policy are going away. Rather, the market just looks to be in oversold territory.Investor sentiment—based on the Investor Sentiment Survey from the American Association of Individual Investors, along with the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index—is at its most bearish level since the March 2020 selloff. Those are contrarian indicators, with history suggesting positive market returns going forward when they’ve reached similar levels. It recalls the Warren Buffett adage about being fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.Valuations are now relatively undemanding, as well. The S&P 500 closed the week with a forward price/earnings ratio of 20.1 times. That’s only one point higher than the index’s valuation at the end of 2019, before the Covid-19 pandemic hit, and before Tesla (TSLA) joined the S&P 500.Even traders have gotten more defensive, with the S&P 500 put-to-call ratio spiking since the start of the year. That’s a sign investors are looking to hedge their market exposure, according to Michael Green, a portfolio manager and chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, which offers several exchange-traded funds with options-based strategies. The firm’s largest ETF is the Simplify US Equity PLUS Downside Convexity (SPD), which aims to protect returns during volatile drawdowns.If the past week felt particularly turbulent, that’s because market volatility can breed more volatility, Green observes. As demand rises for put options—which increase in value as the price of a security falls—options writers often add to the selling pressure. In order to hedge their market exposure and limit risk, they may short the same stocks they’ve sold puts on. That has contributed to the massive swings seen in recent days, and it works in both directions.For investors, the volatility is painful, but selling out now would be a mistake. Instead, investors should use the selloff to rebalance their portfolios.“When you see incredible volatility, that’s when you need to be maximally dispassionate,” Bernstein says. “Volatility tells you that leadership is changing in the market.”Growth stocks won’t be the leaders in the next phase—bad news for tech and good news for more sleepy corners of the market. And over the past weeks, investors have finally woken up to that idea—seemingly all at once.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7221654,"gmtCreate":1643595853377,"gmtModify":1643595853473,"authorId":3575000650579772,"author":{"id":3575000650579772,"idStr":"3575000650579772","authorId":3575000650579772,"name":"Samwich","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/333bbe08da61ec501a2da43a65e31462","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":633063417,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"},{"id":7221557,"gmtCreate":1643592934436,"gmtModify":1643592934535,"authorId":3581919031797456,"author":{"id":3581919031797456,"idStr":"3581919031797456","authorId":3581919031797456,"name":"JeffreyNeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd016aa2ec66a904f877445461310e24","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":633063417,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"1","text":"1","html":"1"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":22,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}