The stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

The stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details

MarketWatch2021-02-16

Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed The hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at ...

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Nichktan
·2021-02-18
Nice
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- ponyinvestor:
  Comment on mine pls :)
  2021-03-29
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CLK1413
·2021-02-17
Wao
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Patjaslyn
·2021-02-17
Interesting
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JinJie
·2021-02-17
Wow heya is this
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ci3lo
·2021-02-17
Ok
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- doky:
  yup
  2021-03-19
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Ychia1761
·2021-02-16
Bullist
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4onemoreday
·2021-02-16
Okay
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chunyangtoh
·2021-02-16
Ok
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- 车厘子tomato:
  comment for comment! like for like
  2021-02-16
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- Jazling:
  Ok
  2021-02-16
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- NGJA0003:
  Comment Pls!
  2021-02-16
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onezero
·2021-02-16
Good to know
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- 车厘子tomato:
  comment for comment! like for like
  2021-02-16
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- onezero:
  [开心]
  2021-02-16
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MingXuan
·2021-02-16
Hi
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- RogerLew:
  [强]
  2021-02-16
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- MingXuan:
  hi
  2021-02-20
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- MingXuan:
  hi
  2021-02-22
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MingXuan
·2021-02-16
Hi
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AhPohPoh
·2021-02-16
PLEASE HELP ME TO LIKE MY COMMENT
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- AhPohPoh:
  PLEASE HELP ME TO LIKE THIS COMMENT
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- AhPohPoh:
  Ju
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  Hi
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小熊家族
·2021-02-16
The reboubd is due to the covid19 is over?
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TraderJo98
·2021-02-16
Indeed
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Some stare at ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-rightly-sees-an-economic-rebound-but-is-overlooking-these-worrisome-details-11613400002?mod=home-page\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"market_watch","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-16 14:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-rightly-sees-an-economic-rebound-but-is-overlooking-these-worrisome-details-11613400002?mod=home-page>MarketWatch</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nWatch this measure of the long-term unemployed\nThe hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-rightly-sees-an-economic-rebound-but-is-overlooking-these-worrisome-details-11613400002?mod=home-page\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".SPX","symbol_name":"S&P 500 Index","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-rightly-sees-an-economic-rebound-but-is-overlooking-these-worrisome-details-11613400002?mod=home-page","article_id":"1121326703","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121326703","pubTimestamp":1613456527,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"market_watch","name":"华尔街大事件"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed\nThe hottest question in Washington these days is how ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"marketwatch.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"translate_title":"股市正确地看到了经济的反弹，但却忽略了这些令人担忧的细节","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9},"content_text":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed\nThe hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.\nIn fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.\nBut as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.\nAs shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.\nWith all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the European Commission upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the International Monetary Fund and the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.\nU.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.\nKa-BOOM!\nOur central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.\nSpecifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.\n\nMany of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a story that stretches back to the 1960s when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.\nMeanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some 80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.\nAll recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.\nWhen the recovery comes, as a study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.\nAnd, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.\nThese are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.\nFor investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.  The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":384902369,"gmtCreate":1613602772851,"gmtModify":1634553014440,"author":{"id":"3567067978989911","authorId":"3567067978989911","name":"Nichktan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a93daf14236dfaeabaf3ea0b82fe4d","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3567067978989911","authorIdStr":"3567067978989911"},"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/384902369","repostId":1121326703,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121326703","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613456527,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121326703?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 14:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121326703","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed\nThe hottest question in Washington these days is how ","content":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed<blockquote>看看这个衡量长期失业者的指标</blockquote> The hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.<blockquote>这些天华盛顿最热门的问题是美国应该在复苏上多花多少钱，这是一个经典的数据罗夏测验。一些人盯着不断下降的失业率，认为经济正在恢复正常。其他人担心他们下降得不够快，并担心挥之不去的疤痕会损害长期增长。</blockquote> In fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market&nbsp;certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.<blockquote>事实上，两个群体都可能是对的。近期复苏看起来相当强劲，特别是如果另一项刺激计划将提高的失业救济金延长到秋季。股市当然感觉到一个辉煌的夏天即将到来。</blockquote> But as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.<blockquote>但随着公司利用冲击推出节省成本的技术，以及消费者带着新习惯走出封锁，相同的旧工作岗位将不会全部填补。这场危机将让更多的人满足于更低的工资或完全退出劳动力市场，要治愈经济创伤，需要的不仅仅是砸钱。</blockquote> As shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.<blockquote>正如新冠疫情对去年经济的冲击一样，全球同步的政策反应更令人惊讶。央行降息，财政部削减支票，寻找疫苗的惊人努力现在已经提供了几种高效的选择。</blockquote> With all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the&nbsp;European Commission&nbsp;upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the&nbsp;International Monetary Fund&nbsp;and the&nbsp;Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.<blockquote>随着所有资金在世界各地流动，我们怎么能不期待大幅反弹呢？就连欧盟委员会的预言家上周也上调了经济预测，效仿国际货币基金组织和经济合作与发展组织的同行设定的趋势。</blockquote> U.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.<blockquote>美国失业率较去年3月14.7%的峰值下降了一半以上，而家庭储蓄健康，债务较低。在政府的额外支持下，较贫困的家庭甚至报告收入略高。大公司现金充裕，银行有充足的放贷能力。随着冬去春来，美国人一打第二针就计划疯狂购物和异国旅行来控制他们的幽居病。</blockquote> Ka-BOOM!<blockquote>砰！</blockquote> Our central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the&nbsp;Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.<blockquote>我们的核心情景是今年稳步复苏，另一项刺激计划将推动经济增长高于国会预算办公室3.7%的新预测。失业率应该会从目前的6.3%下降，但这将是艰难的，因为劳动力数据中的细节显示了更令人担忧的情况。</blockquote> Specifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.<blockquote>具体来说，长期失业率（计算失业超过27周的美国人）的绝对值和占整体失业人口的百分比继续上升。在全球金融危机后刚刚开始复苏后，劳动力参与率也急剧下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b7d431bf277dd17f778f2af110445c\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"639\"><blockquote></blockquote> Many of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a&nbsp;story that stretches back to the 1960s&nbsp;when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.<blockquote>当所有这些人回到购物中心时，许多失去的工作可能会重新出现。但其中许多趋势都是一个可以追溯到20世纪60年代的故事的一部分，当时25-54岁的男性（所谓的“黄金年龄”）开始退出劳动力市场，因为包括全球竞争、技术创新和工会削弱在内的复杂力量。当危机来袭时，其中一些趋势才刚刚改善。</blockquote> Meanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand&nbsp;the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some&nbsp;80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.<blockquote>与此同时，我们才刚刚开始理解职业女性所受到的冲击。即使经济复苏已经开始，一月份离开劳动力市场的人中仍有约80%是女性。</blockquote> All recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.<blockquote>所有的衰退都会加剧就业和失业者之间的不匹配，但这次可能更糟。当危机来袭时，公司通常会增加新技术来削减运营成本。然而，这一次，大流行后新的消费者模式和偏好将进一步破坏。</blockquote> When the recovery comes, as a&nbsp;study&nbsp;by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.<blockquote>正如纽约联邦储备银行的一项研究指出的那样，当复苏到来时，新的工作岗位将不适合那些被解雇的人的技能。这并不是说空乘人员不能在在线零售商的物流中心获得陆地工作，但这很难是自动的或舒适的。</blockquote> And, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.<blockquote>而且，这不仅仅是训练的问题。如果他们的前雇主不在需求复苏时看涨期权他们重返工作岗位，那么寻找工作的时间将会更长。如果前雇主破产了，那就更难了。根据一项指标，自去年1月以来，近三分之一的小企业已经关闭。</blockquote> These are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata&nbsp;points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.<blockquote>这些都不是即使有另一个刺激方案也能轻易解决的问题。正如经济学家Marco Annunziata指出的那样，长期失业者尤其需要足够的支持，而不会削弱重返劳动力市场的动力。进步还需要对培训和教育进行投资，并且可能需要很长时间才能取得成果。</blockquote> For investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.&nbsp; The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.<blockquote>对投资者来说，“好消息”是，如果你想用看涨期权的话，这些都是长期趋势，不太可能削弱近期市场回报。坏消息是，从许多方面来看，美国的劳动力继续恶化，对长期增长产生各种影响，更不用说政治稳定了。</blockquote>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-02-16 14:22\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nWatch this measure of the long-term unemployed<blockquote>看看这个衡量长期失业者的指标</blockquote> The hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.<blockquote>这些天华盛顿最热门的问题是美国应该在复苏上多花多少钱，这是一个经典的数据罗夏测验。一些人盯着不断下降的失业率，认为经济正在恢复正常。其他人担心他们下降得不够快，并担心挥之不去的疤痕会损害长期增长。</blockquote> In fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market&nbsp;certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.<blockquote>事实上，两个群体都可能是对的。近期复苏看起来相当强劲，特别是如果另一项刺激计划将提高的失业救济金延长到秋季。股市当然感觉到一个辉煌的夏天即将到来。</blockquote> But as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.<blockquote>但随着公司利用冲击推出节省成本的技术，以及消费者带着新习惯走出封锁，相同的旧工作岗位将不会全部填补。这场危机将让更多的人满足于更低的工资或完全退出劳动力市场，要治愈经济创伤，需要的不仅仅是砸钱。</blockquote> As shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.<blockquote>正如新冠疫情对去年经济的冲击一样，全球同步的政策反应更令人惊讶。央行降息，财政部削减支票，寻找疫苗的惊人努力现在已经提供了几种高效的选择。</blockquote> With all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the&nbsp;European Commission&nbsp;upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the&nbsp;International Monetary Fund&nbsp;and the&nbsp;Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.<blockquote>随着所有资金在世界各地流动，我们怎么能不期待大幅反弹呢？就连欧盟委员会的预言家上周也上调了经济预测，效仿国际货币基金组织和经济合作与发展组织的同行设定的趋势。</blockquote> U.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.<blockquote>美国失业率较去年3月14.7%的峰值下降了一半以上，而家庭储蓄健康，债务较低。在政府的额外支持下，较贫困的家庭甚至报告收入略高。大公司现金充裕，银行有充足的放贷能力。随着冬去春来，美国人一打第二针就计划疯狂购物和异国旅行来控制他们的幽居病。</blockquote> Ka-BOOM!<blockquote>砰！</blockquote> Our central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the&nbsp;Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.<blockquote>我们的核心情景是今年稳步复苏，另一项刺激计划将推动经济增长高于国会预算办公室3.7%的新预测。失业率应该会从目前的6.3%下降，但这将是艰难的，因为劳动力数据中的细节显示了更令人担忧的情况。</blockquote> Specifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.<blockquote>具体来说，长期失业率（计算失业超过27周的美国人）的绝对值和占整体失业人口的百分比继续上升。在全球金融危机后刚刚开始复苏后，劳动力参与率也急剧下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b7d431bf277dd17f778f2af110445c\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"639\"><blockquote></blockquote> Many of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a&nbsp;story that stretches back to the 1960s&nbsp;when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.<blockquote>当所有这些人回到购物中心时，许多失去的工作可能会重新出现。但其中许多趋势都是一个可以追溯到20世纪60年代的故事的一部分，当时25-54岁的男性（所谓的“黄金年龄”）开始退出劳动力市场，因为包括全球竞争、技术创新和工会削弱在内的复杂力量。当危机来袭时，其中一些趋势才刚刚改善。</blockquote> Meanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand&nbsp;the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some&nbsp;80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.<blockquote>与此同时，我们才刚刚开始理解职业女性所受到的冲击。即使经济复苏已经开始，一月份离开劳动力市场的人中仍有约80%是女性。</blockquote> All recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.<blockquote>所有的衰退都会加剧就业和失业者之间的不匹配，但这次可能更糟。当危机来袭时，公司通常会增加新技术来削减运营成本。然而，这一次，大流行后新的消费者模式和偏好将进一步破坏。</blockquote> When the recovery comes, as a&nbsp;study&nbsp;by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.<blockquote>正如纽约联邦储备银行的一项研究指出的那样，当复苏到来时，新的工作岗位将不适合那些被解雇的人的技能。这并不是说空乘人员不能在在线零售商的物流中心获得陆地工作，但这很难是自动的或舒适的。</blockquote> And, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.<blockquote>而且，这不仅仅是训练的问题。如果他们的前雇主不在需求复苏时看涨期权他们重返工作岗位，那么寻找工作的时间将会更长。如果前雇主破产了，那就更难了。根据一项指标，自去年1月以来，近三分之一的小企业已经关闭。</blockquote> These are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata&nbsp;points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.<blockquote>这些都不是即使有另一个刺激方案也能轻易解决的问题。正如经济学家Marco Annunziata指出的那样，长期失业者尤其需要足够的支持，而不会削弱重返劳动力市场的动力。进步还需要对培训和教育进行投资，并且可能需要很长时间才能取得成果。</blockquote> For investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.&nbsp; The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.<blockquote>对投资者来说，“好消息”是，如果你想用看涨期权的话，这些都是长期趋势，不太可能削弱近期市场回报。坏消息是，从许多方面来看，美国的劳动力继续恶化，对长期增长产生各种影响，更不用说政治稳定了。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-rightly-sees-an-economic-rebound-but-is-overlooking-these-worrisome-details-11613400002?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-rightly-sees-an-economic-rebound-but-is-overlooking-these-worrisome-details-11613400002?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1121326703","content_text":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed\nThe hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.\nIn fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.\nBut as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.\nAs shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.\nWith all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the European Commission upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the International Monetary Fund and the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.\nU.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.\nKa-BOOM!\nOur central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.\nSpecifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.\n\nMany of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a story that stretches back to the 1960s when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.\nMeanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some 80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.\nAll recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.\nWhen the recovery comes, as a study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.\nAnd, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.\nThese are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.\nFor investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.  The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3911649,"gmtCreate":1617010969754,"gmtModify":1635747093704,"authorId":3575443999456708,"author":{"id":3575443999456708,"idStr":"3575443999456708","authorId":3575443999456708,"name":"ponyinvestor","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/138d1ebc8820019726a687f0ffe45994","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":384902369,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Comment on mine pls :)","text":"Comment on mine pls :)","html":"Comment on mine pls :)"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":385197098,"gmtCreate":1613520626914,"gmtModify":1634553343200,"author":{"id":"3575885081807709","authorId":"3575885081807709","name":"CLK1413","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf942f43809d1a8c51326faf18fba626","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575885081807709","authorIdStr":"3575885081807709"},"htmlText":"Wao","listText":"Wao","text":"Wao","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385197098","repostId":1121326703,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121326703","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613456527,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121326703?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 14:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121326703","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed\nThe hottest question in Washington these days is how ","content":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed<blockquote>看看这个衡量长期失业者的指标</blockquote> The hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.<blockquote>这些天华盛顿最热门的问题是美国应该在复苏上多花多少钱，这是一个经典的数据罗夏测验。一些人盯着不断下降的失业率，认为经济正在恢复正常。其他人担心他们下降得不够快，并担心挥之不去的疤痕会损害长期增长。</blockquote> In fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market&nbsp;certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.<blockquote>事实上，两个群体都可能是对的。近期复苏看起来相当强劲，特别是如果另一项刺激计划将提高的失业救济金延长到秋季。股市当然感觉到一个辉煌的夏天即将到来。</blockquote> But as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.<blockquote>但随着公司利用冲击推出节省成本的技术，以及消费者带着新习惯走出封锁，相同的旧工作岗位将不会全部填补。这场危机将让更多的人满足于更低的工资或完全退出劳动力市场，要治愈经济创伤，需要的不仅仅是砸钱。</blockquote> As shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.<blockquote>正如新冠疫情对去年经济的冲击一样，全球同步的政策反应更令人惊讶。央行降息，财政部削减支票，寻找疫苗的惊人努力现在已经提供了几种高效的选择。</blockquote> With all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the&nbsp;European Commission&nbsp;upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the&nbsp;International Monetary Fund&nbsp;and the&nbsp;Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.<blockquote>随着所有资金在世界各地流动，我们怎么能不期待大幅反弹呢？就连欧盟委员会的预言家上周也上调了经济预测，效仿国际货币基金组织和经济合作与发展组织的同行设定的趋势。</blockquote> U.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.<blockquote>美国失业率较去年3月14.7%的峰值下降了一半以上，而家庭储蓄健康，债务较低。在政府的额外支持下，较贫困的家庭甚至报告收入略高。大公司现金充裕，银行有充足的放贷能力。随着冬去春来，美国人一打第二针就计划疯狂购物和异国旅行来控制他们的幽居病。</blockquote> Ka-BOOM!<blockquote>砰！</blockquote> Our central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the&nbsp;Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.<blockquote>我们的核心情景是今年稳步复苏，另一项刺激计划将推动经济增长高于国会预算办公室3.7%的新预测。失业率应该会从目前的6.3%下降，但这将是艰难的，因为劳动力数据中的细节显示了更令人担忧的情况。</blockquote> Specifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.<blockquote>具体来说，长期失业率（计算失业超过27周的美国人）的绝对值和占整体失业人口的百分比继续上升。在全球金融危机后刚刚开始复苏后，劳动力参与率也急剧下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b7d431bf277dd17f778f2af110445c\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"639\"><blockquote></blockquote> Many of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a&nbsp;story that stretches back to the 1960s&nbsp;when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.<blockquote>当所有这些人回到购物中心时，许多失去的工作可能会重新出现。但其中许多趋势都是一个可以追溯到20世纪60年代的故事的一部分，当时25-54岁的男性（所谓的“黄金年龄”）开始退出劳动力市场，因为包括全球竞争、技术创新和工会削弱在内的复杂力量。当危机来袭时，其中一些趋势才刚刚改善。</blockquote> Meanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand&nbsp;the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some&nbsp;80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.<blockquote>与此同时，我们才刚刚开始理解职业女性所受到的冲击。即使经济复苏已经开始，一月份离开劳动力市场的人中仍有约80%是女性。</blockquote> All recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.<blockquote>所有的衰退都会加剧就业和失业者之间的不匹配，但这次可能更糟。当危机来袭时，公司通常会增加新技术来削减运营成本。然而，这一次，大流行后新的消费者模式和偏好将进一步破坏。</blockquote> When the recovery comes, as a&nbsp;study&nbsp;by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.<blockquote>正如纽约联邦储备银行的一项研究指出的那样，当复苏到来时，新的工作岗位将不适合那些被解雇的人的技能。这并不是说空乘人员不能在在线零售商的物流中心获得陆地工作，但这很难是自动的或舒适的。</blockquote> And, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.<blockquote>而且，这不仅仅是训练的问题。如果他们的前雇主不在需求复苏时看涨期权他们重返工作岗位，那么寻找工作的时间将会更长。如果前雇主破产了，那就更难了。根据一项指标，自去年1月以来，近三分之一的小企业已经关闭。</blockquote> These are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata&nbsp;points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.<blockquote>这些都不是即使有另一个刺激方案也能轻易解决的问题。正如经济学家Marco Annunziata指出的那样，长期失业者尤其需要足够的支持，而不会削弱重返劳动力市场的动力。进步还需要对培训和教育进行投资，并且可能需要很长时间才能取得成果。</blockquote> For investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.&nbsp; The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.<blockquote>对投资者来说，“好消息”是，如果你想用看涨期权的话，这些都是长期趋势，不太可能削弱近期市场回报。坏消息是，从许多方面来看，美国的劳动力继续恶化，对长期增长产生各种影响，更不用说政治稳定了。</blockquote>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-02-16 14:22\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nWatch this measure of the long-term unemployed<blockquote>看看这个衡量长期失业者的指标</blockquote> The hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.<blockquote>这些天华盛顿最热门的问题是美国应该在复苏上多花多少钱，这是一个经典的数据罗夏测验。一些人盯着不断下降的失业率，认为经济正在恢复正常。其他人担心他们下降得不够快，并担心挥之不去的疤痕会损害长期增长。</blockquote> In fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market&nbsp;certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.<blockquote>事实上，两个群体都可能是对的。近期复苏看起来相当强劲，特别是如果另一项刺激计划将提高的失业救济金延长到秋季。股市当然感觉到一个辉煌的夏天即将到来。</blockquote> But as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.<blockquote>但随着公司利用冲击推出节省成本的技术，以及消费者带着新习惯走出封锁，相同的旧工作岗位将不会全部填补。这场危机将让更多的人满足于更低的工资或完全退出劳动力市场，要治愈经济创伤，需要的不仅仅是砸钱。</blockquote> As shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.<blockquote>正如新冠疫情对去年经济的冲击一样，全球同步的政策反应更令人惊讶。央行降息，财政部削减支票，寻找疫苗的惊人努力现在已经提供了几种高效的选择。</blockquote> With all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the&nbsp;European Commission&nbsp;upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the&nbsp;International Monetary Fund&nbsp;and the&nbsp;Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.<blockquote>随着所有资金在世界各地流动，我们怎么能不期待大幅反弹呢？就连欧盟委员会的预言家上周也上调了经济预测，效仿国际货币基金组织和经济合作与发展组织的同行设定的趋势。</blockquote> U.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.<blockquote>美国失业率较去年3月14.7%的峰值下降了一半以上，而家庭储蓄健康，债务较低。在政府的额外支持下，较贫困的家庭甚至报告收入略高。大公司现金充裕，银行有充足的放贷能力。随着冬去春来，美国人一打第二针就计划疯狂购物和异国旅行来控制他们的幽居病。</blockquote> Ka-BOOM!<blockquote>砰！</blockquote> Our central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the&nbsp;Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.<blockquote>我们的核心情景是今年稳步复苏，另一项刺激计划将推动经济增长高于国会预算办公室3.7%的新预测。失业率应该会从目前的6.3%下降，但这将是艰难的，因为劳动力数据中的细节显示了更令人担忧的情况。</blockquote> Specifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.<blockquote>具体来说，长期失业率（计算失业超过27周的美国人）的绝对值和占整体失业人口的百分比继续上升。在全球金融危机后刚刚开始复苏后，劳动力参与率也急剧下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b7d431bf277dd17f778f2af110445c\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"639\"><blockquote></blockquote> Many of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a&nbsp;story that stretches back to the 1960s&nbsp;when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.<blockquote>当所有这些人回到购物中心时，许多失去的工作可能会重新出现。但其中许多趋势都是一个可以追溯到20世纪60年代的故事的一部分，当时25-54岁的男性（所谓的“黄金年龄”）开始退出劳动力市场，因为包括全球竞争、技术创新和工会削弱在内的复杂力量。当危机来袭时，其中一些趋势才刚刚改善。</blockquote> Meanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand&nbsp;the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some&nbsp;80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.<blockquote>与此同时，我们才刚刚开始理解职业女性所受到的冲击。即使经济复苏已经开始，一月份离开劳动力市场的人中仍有约80%是女性。</blockquote> All recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.<blockquote>所有的衰退都会加剧就业和失业者之间的不匹配，但这次可能更糟。当危机来袭时，公司通常会增加新技术来削减运营成本。然而，这一次，大流行后新的消费者模式和偏好将进一步破坏。</blockquote> When the recovery comes, as a&nbsp;study&nbsp;by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.<blockquote>正如纽约联邦储备银行的一项研究指出的那样，当复苏到来时，新的工作岗位将不适合那些被解雇的人的技能。这并不是说空乘人员不能在在线零售商的物流中心获得陆地工作，但这很难是自动的或舒适的。</blockquote> And, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.<blockquote>而且，这不仅仅是训练的问题。如果他们的前雇主不在需求复苏时看涨期权他们重返工作岗位，那么寻找工作的时间将会更长。如果前雇主破产了，那就更难了。根据一项指标，自去年1月以来，近三分之一的小企业已经关闭。</blockquote> These are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata&nbsp;points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.<blockquote>这些都不是即使有另一个刺激方案也能轻易解决的问题。正如经济学家Marco Annunziata指出的那样，长期失业者尤其需要足够的支持，而不会削弱重返劳动力市场的动力。进步还需要对培训和教育进行投资，并且可能需要很长时间才能取得成果。</blockquote> For investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.&nbsp; The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.<blockquote>对投资者来说，“好消息”是，如果你想用看涨期权的话，这些都是长期趋势，不太可能削弱近期市场回报。坏消息是，从许多方面来看，美国的劳动力继续恶化，对长期增长产生各种影响，更不用说政治稳定了。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-rightly-sees-an-economic-rebound-but-is-overlooking-these-worrisome-details-11613400002?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-rightly-sees-an-economic-rebound-but-is-overlooking-these-worrisome-details-11613400002?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1121326703","content_text":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed\nThe hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.\nIn fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.\nBut as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.\nAs shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.\nWith all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the European Commission upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the International Monetary Fund and the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.\nU.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.\nKa-BOOM!\nOur central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.\nSpecifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.\n\nMany of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a story that stretches back to the 1960s when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.\nMeanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some 80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.\nAll recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.\nWhen the recovery comes, as a study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.\nAnd, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.\nThese are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.\nFor investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.  The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":385357643,"gmtCreate":1613517017782,"gmtModify":1634553367892,"author":{"id":"3560462004935767","authorId":"3560462004935767","name":"Patjaslyn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d24c3405176265c91b8a1c92e36ca1e3","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3560462004935767","authorIdStr":"3560462004935767"},"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385357643","repostId":1121326703,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121326703","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613456527,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121326703?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 14:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121326703","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed\nThe hottest question in Washington these days is how ","content":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed<blockquote>看看这个衡量长期失业者的指标</blockquote> The hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.<blockquote>这些天华盛顿最热门的问题是美国应该在复苏上多花多少钱，这是一个经典的数据罗夏测验。一些人盯着不断下降的失业率，认为经济正在恢复正常。其他人担心他们下降得不够快，并担心挥之不去的疤痕会损害长期增长。</blockquote> In fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market&nbsp;certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.<blockquote>事实上，两个群体都可能是对的。近期复苏看起来相当强劲，特别是如果另一项刺激计划将提高的失业救济金延长到秋季。股市当然感觉到一个辉煌的夏天即将到来。</blockquote> But as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.<blockquote>但随着公司利用冲击推出节省成本的技术，以及消费者带着新习惯走出封锁，相同的旧工作岗位将不会全部填补。这场危机将让更多的人满足于更低的工资或完全退出劳动力市场，要治愈经济创伤，需要的不仅仅是砸钱。</blockquote> As shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.<blockquote>正如新冠疫情对去年经济的冲击一样，全球同步的政策反应更令人惊讶。央行降息，财政部削减支票，寻找疫苗的惊人努力现在已经提供了几种高效的选择。</blockquote> With all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the&nbsp;European Commission&nbsp;upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the&nbsp;International Monetary Fund&nbsp;and the&nbsp;Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.<blockquote>随着所有资金在世界各地流动，我们怎么能不期待大幅反弹呢？就连欧盟委员会的预言家上周也上调了经济预测，效仿国际货币基金组织和经济合作与发展组织的同行设定的趋势。</blockquote> U.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.<blockquote>美国失业率较去年3月14.7%的峰值下降了一半以上，而家庭储蓄健康，债务较低。在政府的额外支持下，较贫困的家庭甚至报告收入略高。大公司现金充裕，银行有充足的放贷能力。随着冬去春来，美国人一打第二针就计划疯狂购物和异国旅行来控制他们的幽居病。</blockquote> Ka-BOOM!<blockquote>砰！</blockquote> Our central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the&nbsp;Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.<blockquote>我们的核心情景是今年稳步复苏，另一项刺激计划将推动经济增长高于国会预算办公室3.7%的新预测。失业率应该会从目前的6.3%下降，但这将是艰难的，因为劳动力数据中的细节显示了更令人担忧的情况。</blockquote> Specifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.<blockquote>具体来说，长期失业率（计算失业超过27周的美国人）的绝对值和占整体失业人口的百分比继续上升。在全球金融危机后刚刚开始复苏后，劳动力参与率也急剧下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b7d431bf277dd17f778f2af110445c\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"639\"><blockquote></blockquote> Many of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a&nbsp;story that stretches back to the 1960s&nbsp;when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.<blockquote>当所有这些人回到购物中心时，许多失去的工作可能会重新出现。但其中许多趋势都是一个可以追溯到20世纪60年代的故事的一部分，当时25-54岁的男性（所谓的“黄金年龄”）开始退出劳动力市场，因为包括全球竞争、技术创新和工会削弱在内的复杂力量。当危机来袭时，其中一些趋势才刚刚改善。</blockquote> Meanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand&nbsp;the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some&nbsp;80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.<blockquote>与此同时，我们才刚刚开始理解职业女性所受到的冲击。即使经济复苏已经开始，一月份离开劳动力市场的人中仍有约80%是女性。</blockquote> All recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.<blockquote>所有的衰退都会加剧就业和失业者之间的不匹配，但这次可能更糟。当危机来袭时，公司通常会增加新技术来削减运营成本。然而，这一次，大流行后新的消费者模式和偏好将进一步破坏。</blockquote> When the recovery comes, as a&nbsp;study&nbsp;by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.<blockquote>正如纽约联邦储备银行的一项研究指出的那样，当复苏到来时，新的工作岗位将不适合那些被解雇的人的技能。这并不是说空乘人员不能在在线零售商的物流中心获得陆地工作，但这很难是自动的或舒适的。</blockquote> And, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.<blockquote>而且，这不仅仅是训练的问题。如果他们的前雇主不在需求复苏时看涨期权他们重返工作岗位，那么寻找工作的时间将会更长。如果前雇主破产了，那就更难了。根据一项指标，自去年1月以来，近三分之一的小企业已经关闭。</blockquote> These are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata&nbsp;points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.<blockquote>这些都不是即使有另一个刺激方案也能轻易解决的问题。正如经济学家Marco Annunziata指出的那样，长期失业者尤其需要足够的支持，而不会削弱重返劳动力市场的动力。进步还需要对培训和教育进行投资，并且可能需要很长时间才能取得成果。</blockquote> For investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.&nbsp; The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.<blockquote>对投资者来说，“好消息”是，如果你想用看涨期权的话，这些都是长期趋势，不太可能削弱近期市场回报。坏消息是，从许多方面来看，美国的劳动力继续恶化，对长期增长产生各种影响，更不用说政治稳定了。</blockquote>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-02-16 14:22\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nWatch this measure of the long-term unemployed<blockquote>看看这个衡量长期失业者的指标</blockquote> The hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.<blockquote>这些天华盛顿最热门的问题是美国应该在复苏上多花多少钱，这是一个经典的数据罗夏测验。一些人盯着不断下降的失业率，认为经济正在恢复正常。其他人担心他们下降得不够快，并担心挥之不去的疤痕会损害长期增长。</blockquote> In fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market&nbsp;certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.<blockquote>事实上，两个群体都可能是对的。近期复苏看起来相当强劲，特别是如果另一项刺激计划将提高的失业救济金延长到秋季。股市当然感觉到一个辉煌的夏天即将到来。</blockquote> But as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.<blockquote>但随着公司利用冲击推出节省成本的技术，以及消费者带着新习惯走出封锁，相同的旧工作岗位将不会全部填补。这场危机将让更多的人满足于更低的工资或完全退出劳动力市场，要治愈经济创伤，需要的不仅仅是砸钱。</blockquote> As shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.<blockquote>正如新冠疫情对去年经济的冲击一样，全球同步的政策反应更令人惊讶。央行降息，财政部削减支票，寻找疫苗的惊人努力现在已经提供了几种高效的选择。</blockquote> With all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the&nbsp;European Commission&nbsp;upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the&nbsp;International Monetary Fund&nbsp;and the&nbsp;Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.<blockquote>随着所有资金在世界各地流动，我们怎么能不期待大幅反弹呢？就连欧盟委员会的预言家上周也上调了经济预测，效仿国际货币基金组织和经济合作与发展组织的同行设定的趋势。</blockquote> U.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.<blockquote>美国失业率较去年3月14.7%的峰值下降了一半以上，而家庭储蓄健康，债务较低。在政府的额外支持下，较贫困的家庭甚至报告收入略高。大公司现金充裕，银行有充足的放贷能力。随着冬去春来，美国人一打第二针就计划疯狂购物和异国旅行来控制他们的幽居病。</blockquote> Ka-BOOM!<blockquote>砰！</blockquote> Our central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the&nbsp;Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.<blockquote>我们的核心情景是今年稳步复苏，另一项刺激计划将推动经济增长高于国会预算办公室3.7%的新预测。失业率应该会从目前的6.3%下降，但这将是艰难的，因为劳动力数据中的细节显示了更令人担忧的情况。</blockquote> Specifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.<blockquote>具体来说，长期失业率（计算失业超过27周的美国人）的绝对值和占整体失业人口的百分比继续上升。在全球金融危机后刚刚开始复苏后，劳动力参与率也急剧下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b7d431bf277dd17f778f2af110445c\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"639\"><blockquote></blockquote> Many of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a&nbsp;story that stretches back to the 1960s&nbsp;when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.<blockquote>当所有这些人回到购物中心时，许多失去的工作可能会重新出现。但其中许多趋势都是一个可以追溯到20世纪60年代的故事的一部分，当时25-54岁的男性（所谓的“黄金年龄”）开始退出劳动力市场，因为包括全球竞争、技术创新和工会削弱在内的复杂力量。当危机来袭时，其中一些趋势才刚刚改善。</blockquote> Meanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand&nbsp;the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some&nbsp;80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.<blockquote>与此同时，我们才刚刚开始理解职业女性所受到的冲击。即使经济复苏已经开始，一月份离开劳动力市场的人中仍有约80%是女性。</blockquote> All recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.<blockquote>所有的衰退都会加剧就业和失业者之间的不匹配，但这次可能更糟。当危机来袭时，公司通常会增加新技术来削减运营成本。然而，这一次，大流行后新的消费者模式和偏好将进一步破坏。</blockquote> When the recovery comes, as a&nbsp;study&nbsp;by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.<blockquote>正如纽约联邦储备银行的一项研究指出的那样，当复苏到来时，新的工作岗位将不适合那些被解雇的人的技能。这并不是说空乘人员不能在在线零售商的物流中心获得陆地工作，但这很难是自动的或舒适的。</blockquote> And, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.<blockquote>而且，这不仅仅是训练的问题。如果他们的前雇主不在需求复苏时看涨期权他们重返工作岗位，那么寻找工作的时间将会更长。如果前雇主破产了，那就更难了。根据一项指标，自去年1月以来，近三分之一的小企业已经关闭。</blockquote> These are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata&nbsp;points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.<blockquote>这些都不是即使有另一个刺激方案也能轻易解决的问题。正如经济学家Marco Annunziata指出的那样，长期失业者尤其需要足够的支持，而不会削弱重返劳动力市场的动力。进步还需要对培训和教育进行投资，并且可能需要很长时间才能取得成果。</blockquote> For investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.&nbsp; The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.<blockquote>对投资者来说，“好消息”是，如果你想用看涨期权的话，这些都是长期趋势，不太可能削弱近期市场回报。坏消息是，从许多方面来看，美国的劳动力继续恶化，对长期增长产生各种影响，更不用说政治稳定了。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-rightly-sees-an-economic-rebound-but-is-overlooking-these-worrisome-details-11613400002?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-rightly-sees-an-economic-rebound-but-is-overlooking-these-worrisome-details-11613400002?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1121326703","content_text":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed\nThe hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.\nIn fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.\nBut as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.\nAs shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.\nWith all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the European Commission upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the International Monetary Fund and the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.\nU.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.\nKa-BOOM!\nOur central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.\nSpecifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.\n\nMany of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a story that stretches back to the 1960s when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.\nMeanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some 80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.\nAll recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.\nWhen the recovery comes, as a study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.\nAnd, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.\nThese are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.\nFor investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.  The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":385949946,"gmtCreate":1613496875385,"gmtModify":1634553406755,"author":{"id":"3560004750982606","authorId":"3560004750982606","name":"JinJie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0e9d9e59bca4e927950c95ecc6fbc6c","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3560004750982606","authorIdStr":"3560004750982606"},"htmlText":"Wow heya is this","listText":"Wow heya is this","text":"Wow heya is this","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385949946","repostId":1121326703,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121326703","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613456527,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121326703?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 14:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121326703","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed\nThe hottest question in Washington these days is how ","content":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed<blockquote>看看这个衡量长期失业者的指标</blockquote> The hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.<blockquote>这些天华盛顿最热门的问题是美国应该在复苏上多花多少钱，这是一个经典的数据罗夏测验。一些人盯着不断下降的失业率，认为经济正在恢复正常。其他人担心他们下降得不够快，并担心挥之不去的疤痕会损害长期增长。</blockquote> In fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market&nbsp;certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.<blockquote>事实上，两个群体都可能是对的。近期复苏看起来相当强劲，特别是如果另一项刺激计划将提高的失业救济金延长到秋季。股市当然感觉到一个辉煌的夏天即将到来。</blockquote> But as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.<blockquote>但随着公司利用冲击推出节省成本的技术，以及消费者带着新习惯走出封锁，相同的旧工作岗位将不会全部填补。这场危机将让更多的人满足于更低的工资或完全退出劳动力市场，要治愈经济创伤，需要的不仅仅是砸钱。</blockquote> As shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.<blockquote>正如新冠疫情对去年经济的冲击一样，全球同步的政策反应更令人惊讶。央行降息，财政部削减支票，寻找疫苗的惊人努力现在已经提供了几种高效的选择。</blockquote> With all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the&nbsp;European Commission&nbsp;upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the&nbsp;International Monetary Fund&nbsp;and the&nbsp;Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.<blockquote>随着所有资金在世界各地流动，我们怎么能不期待大幅反弹呢？就连欧盟委员会的预言家上周也上调了经济预测，效仿国际货币基金组织和经济合作与发展组织的同行设定的趋势。</blockquote> U.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.<blockquote>美国失业率较去年3月14.7%的峰值下降了一半以上，而家庭储蓄健康，债务较低。在政府的额外支持下，较贫困的家庭甚至报告收入略高。大公司现金充裕，银行有充足的放贷能力。随着冬去春来，美国人一打第二针就计划疯狂购物和异国旅行来控制他们的幽居病。</blockquote> Ka-BOOM!<blockquote>砰！</blockquote> Our central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the&nbsp;Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.<blockquote>我们的核心情景是今年稳步复苏，另一项刺激计划将推动经济增长高于国会预算办公室3.7%的新预测。失业率应该会从目前的6.3%下降，但这将是艰难的，因为劳动力数据中的细节显示了更令人担忧的情况。</blockquote> Specifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.<blockquote>具体来说，长期失业率（计算失业超过27周的美国人）的绝对值和占整体失业人口的百分比继续上升。在全球金融危机后刚刚开始复苏后，劳动力参与率也急剧下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b7d431bf277dd17f778f2af110445c\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"639\"><blockquote></blockquote> Many of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a&nbsp;story that stretches back to the 1960s&nbsp;when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.<blockquote>当所有这些人回到购物中心时，许多失去的工作可能会重新出现。但其中许多趋势都是一个可以追溯到20世纪60年代的故事的一部分，当时25-54岁的男性（所谓的“黄金年龄”）开始退出劳动力市场，因为包括全球竞争、技术创新和工会削弱在内的复杂力量。当危机来袭时，其中一些趋势才刚刚改善。</blockquote> Meanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand&nbsp;the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some&nbsp;80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.<blockquote>与此同时，我们才刚刚开始理解职业女性所受到的冲击。即使经济复苏已经开始，一月份离开劳动力市场的人中仍有约80%是女性。</blockquote> All recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.<blockquote>所有的衰退都会加剧就业和失业者之间的不匹配，但这次可能更糟。当危机来袭时，公司通常会增加新技术来削减运营成本。然而，这一次，大流行后新的消费者模式和偏好将进一步破坏。</blockquote> When the recovery comes, as a&nbsp;study&nbsp;by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.<blockquote>正如纽约联邦储备银行的一项研究指出的那样，当复苏到来时，新的工作岗位将不适合那些被解雇的人的技能。这并不是说空乘人员不能在在线零售商的物流中心获得陆地工作，但这很难是自动的或舒适的。</blockquote> And, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.<blockquote>而且，这不仅仅是训练的问题。如果他们的前雇主不在需求复苏时看涨期权他们重返工作岗位，那么寻找工作的时间将会更长。如果前雇主破产了，那就更难了。根据一项指标，自去年1月以来，近三分之一的小企业已经关闭。</blockquote> These are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata&nbsp;points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.<blockquote>这些都不是即使有另一个刺激方案也能轻易解决的问题。正如经济学家Marco Annunziata指出的那样，长期失业者尤其需要足够的支持，而不会削弱重返劳动力市场的动力。进步还需要对培训和教育进行投资，并且可能需要很长时间才能取得成果。</blockquote> For investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.&nbsp; The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.<blockquote>对投资者来说，“好消息”是，如果你想用看涨期权的话，这些都是长期趋势，不太可能削弱近期市场回报。坏消息是，从许多方面来看，美国的劳动力继续恶化，对长期增长产生各种影响，更不用说政治稳定了。</blockquote>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-02-16 14:22\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nWatch this measure of the long-term unemployed<blockquote>看看这个衡量长期失业者的指标</blockquote> The hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.<blockquote>这些天华盛顿最热门的问题是美国应该在复苏上多花多少钱，这是一个经典的数据罗夏测验。一些人盯着不断下降的失业率，认为经济正在恢复正常。其他人担心他们下降得不够快，并担心挥之不去的疤痕会损害长期增长。</blockquote> In fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market&nbsp;certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.<blockquote>事实上，两个群体都可能是对的。近期复苏看起来相当强劲，特别是如果另一项刺激计划将提高的失业救济金延长到秋季。股市当然感觉到一个辉煌的夏天即将到来。</blockquote> But as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.<blockquote>但随着公司利用冲击推出节省成本的技术，以及消费者带着新习惯走出封锁，相同的旧工作岗位将不会全部填补。这场危机将让更多的人满足于更低的工资或完全退出劳动力市场，要治愈经济创伤，需要的不仅仅是砸钱。</blockquote> As shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.<blockquote>正如新冠疫情对去年经济的冲击一样，全球同步的政策反应更令人惊讶。央行降息，财政部削减支票，寻找疫苗的惊人努力现在已经提供了几种高效的选择。</blockquote> With all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the&nbsp;European Commission&nbsp;upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the&nbsp;International Monetary Fund&nbsp;and the&nbsp;Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.<blockquote>随着所有资金在世界各地流动，我们怎么能不期待大幅反弹呢？就连欧盟委员会的预言家上周也上调了经济预测，效仿国际货币基金组织和经济合作与发展组织的同行设定的趋势。</blockquote> U.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.<blockquote>美国失业率较去年3月14.7%的峰值下降了一半以上，而家庭储蓄健康，债务较低。在政府的额外支持下，较贫困的家庭甚至报告收入略高。大公司现金充裕，银行有充足的放贷能力。随着冬去春来，美国人一打第二针就计划疯狂购物和异国旅行来控制他们的幽居病。</blockquote> Ka-BOOM!<blockquote>砰！</blockquote> Our central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the&nbsp;Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.<blockquote>我们的核心情景是今年稳步复苏，另一项刺激计划将推动经济增长高于国会预算办公室3.7%的新预测。失业率应该会从目前的6.3%下降，但这将是艰难的，因为劳动力数据中的细节显示了更令人担忧的情况。</blockquote> Specifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.<blockquote>具体来说，长期失业率（计算失业超过27周的美国人）的绝对值和占整体失业人口的百分比继续上升。在全球金融危机后刚刚开始复苏后，劳动力参与率也急剧下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b7d431bf277dd17f778f2af110445c\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"639\"><blockquote></blockquote> Many of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a&nbsp;story that stretches back to the 1960s&nbsp;when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.<blockquote>当所有这些人回到购物中心时，许多失去的工作可能会重新出现。但其中许多趋势都是一个可以追溯到20世纪60年代的故事的一部分，当时25-54岁的男性（所谓的“黄金年龄”）开始退出劳动力市场，因为包括全球竞争、技术创新和工会削弱在内的复杂力量。当危机来袭时，其中一些趋势才刚刚改善。</blockquote> Meanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand&nbsp;the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some&nbsp;80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.<blockquote>与此同时，我们才刚刚开始理解职业女性所受到的冲击。即使经济复苏已经开始，一月份离开劳动力市场的人中仍有约80%是女性。</blockquote> All recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.<blockquote>所有的衰退都会加剧就业和失业者之间的不匹配，但这次可能更糟。当危机来袭时，公司通常会增加新技术来削减运营成本。然而，这一次，大流行后新的消费者模式和偏好将进一步破坏。</blockquote> When the recovery comes, as a&nbsp;study&nbsp;by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.<blockquote>正如纽约联邦储备银行的一项研究指出的那样，当复苏到来时，新的工作岗位将不适合那些被解雇的人的技能。这并不是说空乘人员不能在在线零售商的物流中心获得陆地工作，但这很难是自动的或舒适的。</blockquote> And, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.<blockquote>而且，这不仅仅是训练的问题。如果他们的前雇主不在需求复苏时看涨期权他们重返工作岗位，那么寻找工作的时间将会更长。如果前雇主破产了，那就更难了。根据一项指标，自去年1月以来，近三分之一的小企业已经关闭。</blockquote> These are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata&nbsp;points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.<blockquote>这些都不是即使有另一个刺激方案也能轻易解决的问题。正如经济学家Marco Annunziata指出的那样，长期失业者尤其需要足够的支持，而不会削弱重返劳动力市场的动力。进步还需要对培训和教育进行投资，并且可能需要很长时间才能取得成果。</blockquote> For investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.&nbsp; The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.<blockquote>对投资者来说，“好消息”是，如果你想用看涨期权的话，这些都是长期趋势，不太可能削弱近期市场回报。坏消息是，从许多方面来看，美国的劳动力继续恶化，对长期增长产生各种影响，更不用说政治稳定了。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-rightly-sees-an-economic-rebound-but-is-overlooking-these-worrisome-details-11613400002?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-rightly-sees-an-economic-rebound-but-is-overlooking-these-worrisome-details-11613400002?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1121326703","content_text":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed\nThe hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.\nIn fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.\nBut as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.\nAs shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.\nWith all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the European Commission upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the International Monetary Fund and the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.\nU.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.\nKa-BOOM!\nOur central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.\nSpecifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.\n\nMany of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a story that stretches back to the 1960s when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.\nMeanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some 80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.\nAll recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.\nWhen the recovery comes, as a study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.\nAnd, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.\nThese are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.\nFor investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.  The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":385928260,"gmtCreate":1613494954150,"gmtModify":1634553412931,"author":{"id":"3570105288869375","authorId":"3570105288869375","name":"ci3lo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192259dd6c463eccc5562b6ad06f758c","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3570105288869375","authorIdStr":"3570105288869375"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385928260","repostId":1121326703,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121326703","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613456527,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121326703?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 14:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121326703","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed\nThe hottest question in Washington these days is how ","content":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed<blockquote>看看这个衡量长期失业者的指标</blockquote> The hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.<blockquote>这些天华盛顿最热门的问题是美国应该在复苏上多花多少钱，这是一个经典的数据罗夏测验。一些人盯着不断下降的失业率，认为经济正在恢复正常。其他人担心他们下降得不够快，并担心挥之不去的疤痕会损害长期增长。</blockquote> In fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market&nbsp;certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.<blockquote>事实上，两个群体都可能是对的。近期复苏看起来相当强劲，特别是如果另一项刺激计划将提高的失业救济金延长到秋季。股市当然感觉到一个辉煌的夏天即将到来。</blockquote> But as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.<blockquote>但随着公司利用冲击推出节省成本的技术，以及消费者带着新习惯走出封锁，相同的旧工作岗位将不会全部填补。这场危机将让更多的人满足于更低的工资或完全退出劳动力市场，要治愈经济创伤，需要的不仅仅是砸钱。</blockquote> As shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.<blockquote>正如新冠疫情对去年经济的冲击一样，全球同步的政策反应更令人惊讶。央行降息，财政部削减支票，寻找疫苗的惊人努力现在已经提供了几种高效的选择。</blockquote> With all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the&nbsp;European Commission&nbsp;upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the&nbsp;International Monetary Fund&nbsp;and the&nbsp;Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.<blockquote>随着所有资金在世界各地流动，我们怎么能不期待大幅反弹呢？就连欧盟委员会的预言家上周也上调了经济预测，效仿国际货币基金组织和经济合作与发展组织的同行设定的趋势。</blockquote> U.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.<blockquote>美国失业率较去年3月14.7%的峰值下降了一半以上，而家庭储蓄健康，债务较低。在政府的额外支持下，较贫困的家庭甚至报告收入略高。大公司现金充裕，银行有充足的放贷能力。随着冬去春来，美国人一打第二针就计划疯狂购物和异国旅行来控制他们的幽居病。</blockquote> Ka-BOOM!<blockquote>砰！</blockquote> Our central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the&nbsp;Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.<blockquote>我们的核心情景是今年稳步复苏，另一项刺激计划将推动经济增长高于国会预算办公室3.7%的新预测。失业率应该会从目前的6.3%下降，但这将是艰难的，因为劳动力数据中的细节显示了更令人担忧的情况。</blockquote> Specifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.<blockquote>具体来说，长期失业率（计算失业超过27周的美国人）的绝对值和占整体失业人口的百分比继续上升。在全球金融危机后刚刚开始复苏后，劳动力参与率也急剧下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b7d431bf277dd17f778f2af110445c\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"639\"><blockquote></blockquote> Many of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a&nbsp;story that stretches back to the 1960s&nbsp;when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.<blockquote>当所有这些人回到购物中心时，许多失去的工作可能会重新出现。但其中许多趋势都是一个可以追溯到20世纪60年代的故事的一部分，当时25-54岁的男性（所谓的“黄金年龄”）开始退出劳动力市场，因为包括全球竞争、技术创新和工会削弱在内的复杂力量。当危机来袭时，其中一些趋势才刚刚改善。</blockquote> Meanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand&nbsp;the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some&nbsp;80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.<blockquote>与此同时，我们才刚刚开始理解职业女性所受到的冲击。即使经济复苏已经开始，一月份离开劳动力市场的人中仍有约80%是女性。</blockquote> All recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.<blockquote>所有的衰退都会加剧就业和失业者之间的不匹配，但这次可能更糟。当危机来袭时，公司通常会增加新技术来削减运营成本。然而，这一次，大流行后新的消费者模式和偏好将进一步破坏。</blockquote> When the recovery comes, as a&nbsp;study&nbsp;by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.<blockquote>正如纽约联邦储备银行的一项研究指出的那样，当复苏到来时，新的工作岗位将不适合那些被解雇的人的技能。这并不是说空乘人员不能在在线零售商的物流中心获得陆地工作，但这很难是自动的或舒适的。</blockquote> And, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.<blockquote>而且，这不仅仅是训练的问题。如果他们的前雇主不在需求复苏时看涨期权他们重返工作岗位，那么寻找工作的时间将会更长。如果前雇主破产了，那就更难了。根据一项指标，自去年1月以来，近三分之一的小企业已经关闭。</blockquote> These are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata&nbsp;points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.<blockquote>这些都不是即使有另一个刺激方案也能轻易解决的问题。正如经济学家Marco Annunziata指出的那样，长期失业者尤其需要足够的支持，而不会削弱重返劳动力市场的动力。进步还需要对培训和教育进行投资，并且可能需要很长时间才能取得成果。</blockquote> For investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.&nbsp; The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.<blockquote>对投资者来说，“好消息”是，如果你想用看涨期权的话，这些都是长期趋势，不太可能削弱近期市场回报。坏消息是，从许多方面来看，美国的劳动力继续恶化，对长期增长产生各种影响，更不用说政治稳定了。</blockquote>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-02-16 14:22\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nWatch this measure of the long-term unemployed<blockquote>看看这个衡量长期失业者的指标</blockquote> The hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.<blockquote>这些天华盛顿最热门的问题是美国应该在复苏上多花多少钱，这是一个经典的数据罗夏测验。一些人盯着不断下降的失业率，认为经济正在恢复正常。其他人担心他们下降得不够快，并担心挥之不去的疤痕会损害长期增长。</blockquote> In fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market&nbsp;certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.<blockquote>事实上，两个群体都可能是对的。近期复苏看起来相当强劲，特别是如果另一项刺激计划将提高的失业救济金延长到秋季。股市当然感觉到一个辉煌的夏天即将到来。</blockquote> But as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.<blockquote>但随着公司利用冲击推出节省成本的技术，以及消费者带着新习惯走出封锁，相同的旧工作岗位将不会全部填补。这场危机将让更多的人满足于更低的工资或完全退出劳动力市场，要治愈经济创伤，需要的不仅仅是砸钱。</blockquote> As shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.<blockquote>正如新冠疫情对去年经济的冲击一样，全球同步的政策反应更令人惊讶。央行降息，财政部削减支票，寻找疫苗的惊人努力现在已经提供了几种高效的选择。</blockquote> With all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the&nbsp;European Commission&nbsp;upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the&nbsp;International Monetary Fund&nbsp;and the&nbsp;Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.<blockquote>随着所有资金在世界各地流动，我们怎么能不期待大幅反弹呢？就连欧盟委员会的预言家上周也上调了经济预测，效仿国际货币基金组织和经济合作与发展组织的同行设定的趋势。</blockquote> U.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.<blockquote>美国失业率较去年3月14.7%的峰值下降了一半以上，而家庭储蓄健康，债务较低。在政府的额外支持下，较贫困的家庭甚至报告收入略高。大公司现金充裕，银行有充足的放贷能力。随着冬去春来，美国人一打第二针就计划疯狂购物和异国旅行来控制他们的幽居病。</blockquote> Ka-BOOM!<blockquote>砰！</blockquote> Our central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the&nbsp;Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.<blockquote>我们的核心情景是今年稳步复苏，另一项刺激计划将推动经济增长高于国会预算办公室3.7%的新预测。失业率应该会从目前的6.3%下降，但这将是艰难的，因为劳动力数据中的细节显示了更令人担忧的情况。</blockquote> Specifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.<blockquote>具体来说，长期失业率（计算失业超过27周的美国人）的绝对值和占整体失业人口的百分比继续上升。在全球金融危机后刚刚开始复苏后，劳动力参与率也急剧下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b7d431bf277dd17f778f2af110445c\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"639\"><blockquote></blockquote> Many of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a&nbsp;story that stretches back to the 1960s&nbsp;when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.<blockquote>当所有这些人回到购物中心时，许多失去的工作可能会重新出现。但其中许多趋势都是一个可以追溯到20世纪60年代的故事的一部分，当时25-54岁的男性（所谓的“黄金年龄”）开始退出劳动力市场，因为包括全球竞争、技术创新和工会削弱在内的复杂力量。当危机来袭时，其中一些趋势才刚刚改善。</blockquote> Meanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand&nbsp;the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some&nbsp;80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.<blockquote>与此同时，我们才刚刚开始理解职业女性所受到的冲击。即使经济复苏已经开始，一月份离开劳动力市场的人中仍有约80%是女性。</blockquote> All recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.<blockquote>所有的衰退都会加剧就业和失业者之间的不匹配，但这次可能更糟。当危机来袭时，公司通常会增加新技术来削减运营成本。然而，这一次，大流行后新的消费者模式和偏好将进一步破坏。</blockquote> When the recovery comes, as a&nbsp;study&nbsp;by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.<blockquote>正如纽约联邦储备银行的一项研究指出的那样，当复苏到来时，新的工作岗位将不适合那些被解雇的人的技能。这并不是说空乘人员不能在在线零售商的物流中心获得陆地工作，但这很难是自动的或舒适的。</blockquote> And, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.<blockquote>而且，这不仅仅是训练的问题。如果他们的前雇主不在需求复苏时看涨期权他们重返工作岗位，那么寻找工作的时间将会更长。如果前雇主破产了，那就更难了。根据一项指标，自去年1月以来，近三分之一的小企业已经关闭。</blockquote> These are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata&nbsp;points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.<blockquote>这些都不是即使有另一个刺激方案也能轻易解决的问题。正如经济学家Marco Annunziata指出的那样，长期失业者尤其需要足够的支持，而不会削弱重返劳动力市场的动力。进步还需要对培训和教育进行投资，并且可能需要很长时间才能取得成果。</blockquote> For investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.&nbsp; The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.<blockquote>对投资者来说，“好消息”是，如果你想用看涨期权的话，这些都是长期趋势，不太可能削弱近期市场回报。坏消息是，从许多方面来看，美国的劳动力继续恶化，对长期增长产生各种影响，更不用说政治稳定了。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-rightly-sees-an-economic-rebound-but-is-overlooking-these-worrisome-details-11613400002?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-rightly-sees-an-economic-rebound-but-is-overlooking-these-worrisome-details-11613400002?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1121326703","content_text":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed\nThe hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.\nIn fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.\nBut as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.\nAs shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.\nWith all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the European Commission upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the International Monetary Fund and the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.\nU.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.\nKa-BOOM!\nOur central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.\nSpecifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.\n\nMany of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a story that stretches back to the 1960s when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.\nMeanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some 80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.\nAll recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.\nWhen the recovery comes, as a study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.\nAnd, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.\nThese are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.\nFor investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.  The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3832914,"gmtCreate":1616123557204,"gmtModify":1635752310465,"authorId":3567308634822078,"author":{"id":3567308634822078,"idStr":"3567308634822078","authorId":3567308634822078,"name":"doky","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":385928260,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"yup","text":"yup","html":"yup"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":382728145,"gmtCreate":1613485774987,"gmtModify":1634553471926,"author":{"id":"3572055614914535","authorId":"3572055614914535","name":"Ychia1761","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86fc697237da30bd6102449174caafb8","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572055614914535","authorIdStr":"3572055614914535"},"htmlText":"Bullist","listText":"Bullist","text":"Bullist","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382728145","repostId":1121326703,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121326703","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613456527,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121326703?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 14:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121326703","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed\nThe hottest question in Washington these days is how ","content":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed<blockquote>看看这个衡量长期失业者的指标</blockquote> The hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.<blockquote>这些天华盛顿最热门的问题是美国应该在复苏上多花多少钱，这是一个经典的数据罗夏测验。一些人盯着不断下降的失业率，认为经济正在恢复正常。其他人担心他们下降得不够快，并担心挥之不去的疤痕会损害长期增长。</blockquote> In fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market&nbsp;certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.<blockquote>事实上，两个群体都可能是对的。近期复苏看起来相当强劲，特别是如果另一项刺激计划将提高的失业救济金延长到秋季。股市当然感觉到一个辉煌的夏天即将到来。</blockquote> But as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.<blockquote>但随着公司利用冲击推出节省成本的技术，以及消费者带着新习惯走出封锁，相同的旧工作岗位将不会全部填补。这场危机将让更多的人满足于更低的工资或完全退出劳动力市场，要治愈经济创伤，需要的不仅仅是砸钱。</blockquote> As shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.<blockquote>正如新冠疫情对去年经济的冲击一样，全球同步的政策反应更令人惊讶。央行降息，财政部削减支票，寻找疫苗的惊人努力现在已经提供了几种高效的选择。</blockquote> With all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the&nbsp;European Commission&nbsp;upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the&nbsp;International Monetary Fund&nbsp;and the&nbsp;Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.<blockquote>随着所有资金在世界各地流动，我们怎么能不期待大幅反弹呢？就连欧盟委员会的预言家上周也上调了经济预测，效仿国际货币基金组织和经济合作与发展组织的同行设定的趋势。</blockquote> U.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.<blockquote>美国失业率较去年3月14.7%的峰值下降了一半以上，而家庭储蓄健康，债务较低。在政府的额外支持下，较贫困的家庭甚至报告收入略高。大公司现金充裕，银行有充足的放贷能力。随着冬去春来，美国人一打第二针就计划疯狂购物和异国旅行来控制他们的幽居病。</blockquote> Ka-BOOM!<blockquote>砰！</blockquote> Our central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the&nbsp;Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.<blockquote>我们的核心情景是今年稳步复苏，另一项刺激计划将推动经济增长高于国会预算办公室3.7%的新预测。失业率应该会从目前的6.3%下降，但这将是艰难的，因为劳动力数据中的细节显示了更令人担忧的情况。</blockquote> Specifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.<blockquote>具体来说，长期失业率（计算失业超过27周的美国人）的绝对值和占整体失业人口的百分比继续上升。在全球金融危机后刚刚开始复苏后，劳动力参与率也急剧下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b7d431bf277dd17f778f2af110445c\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"639\"><blockquote></blockquote> Many of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a&nbsp;story that stretches back to the 1960s&nbsp;when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.<blockquote>当所有这些人回到购物中心时，许多失去的工作可能会重新出现。但其中许多趋势都是一个可以追溯到20世纪60年代的故事的一部分，当时25-54岁的男性（所谓的“黄金年龄”）开始退出劳动力市场，因为包括全球竞争、技术创新和工会削弱在内的复杂力量。当危机来袭时，其中一些趋势才刚刚改善。</blockquote> Meanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand&nbsp;the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some&nbsp;80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.<blockquote>与此同时，我们才刚刚开始理解职业女性所受到的冲击。即使经济复苏已经开始，一月份离开劳动力市场的人中仍有约80%是女性。</blockquote> All recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.<blockquote>所有的衰退都会加剧就业和失业者之间的不匹配，但这次可能更糟。当危机来袭时，公司通常会增加新技术来削减运营成本。然而，这一次，大流行后新的消费者模式和偏好将进一步破坏。</blockquote> When the recovery comes, as a&nbsp;study&nbsp;by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.<blockquote>正如纽约联邦储备银行的一项研究指出的那样，当复苏到来时，新的工作岗位将不适合那些被解雇的人的技能。这并不是说空乘人员不能在在线零售商的物流中心获得陆地工作，但这很难是自动的或舒适的。</blockquote> And, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.<blockquote>而且，这不仅仅是训练的问题。如果他们的前雇主不在需求复苏时看涨期权他们重返工作岗位，那么寻找工作的时间将会更长。如果前雇主破产了，那就更难了。根据一项指标，自去年1月以来，近三分之一的小企业已经关闭。</blockquote> These are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata&nbsp;points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.<blockquote>这些都不是即使有另一个刺激方案也能轻易解决的问题。正如经济学家Marco Annunziata指出的那样，长期失业者尤其需要足够的支持，而不会削弱重返劳动力市场的动力。进步还需要对培训和教育进行投资，并且可能需要很长时间才能取得成果。</blockquote> For investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.&nbsp; The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.<blockquote>对投资者来说，“好消息”是，如果你想用看涨期权的话，这些都是长期趋势，不太可能削弱近期市场回报。坏消息是，从许多方面来看，美国的劳动力继续恶化，对长期增长产生各种影响，更不用说政治稳定了。</blockquote>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-02-16 14:22\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nWatch this measure of the long-term unemployed<blockquote>看看这个衡量长期失业者的指标</blockquote> The hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.<blockquote>这些天华盛顿最热门的问题是美国应该在复苏上多花多少钱，这是一个经典的数据罗夏测验。一些人盯着不断下降的失业率，认为经济正在恢复正常。其他人担心他们下降得不够快，并担心挥之不去的疤痕会损害长期增长。</blockquote> In fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market&nbsp;certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.<blockquote>事实上，两个群体都可能是对的。近期复苏看起来相当强劲，特别是如果另一项刺激计划将提高的失业救济金延长到秋季。股市当然感觉到一个辉煌的夏天即将到来。</blockquote> But as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.<blockquote>但随着公司利用冲击推出节省成本的技术，以及消费者带着新习惯走出封锁，相同的旧工作岗位将不会全部填补。这场危机将让更多的人满足于更低的工资或完全退出劳动力市场，要治愈经济创伤，需要的不仅仅是砸钱。</blockquote> As shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.<blockquote>正如新冠疫情对去年经济的冲击一样，全球同步的政策反应更令人惊讶。央行降息，财政部削减支票，寻找疫苗的惊人努力现在已经提供了几种高效的选择。</blockquote> With all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the&nbsp;European Commission&nbsp;upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the&nbsp;International Monetary Fund&nbsp;and the&nbsp;Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.<blockquote>随着所有资金在世界各地流动，我们怎么能不期待大幅反弹呢？就连欧盟委员会的预言家上周也上调了经济预测，效仿国际货币基金组织和经济合作与发展组织的同行设定的趋势。</blockquote> U.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.<blockquote>美国失业率较去年3月14.7%的峰值下降了一半以上，而家庭储蓄健康，债务较低。在政府的额外支持下，较贫困的家庭甚至报告收入略高。大公司现金充裕，银行有充足的放贷能力。随着冬去春来，美国人一打第二针就计划疯狂购物和异国旅行来控制他们的幽居病。</blockquote> Ka-BOOM!<blockquote>砰！</blockquote> Our central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the&nbsp;Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.<blockquote>我们的核心情景是今年稳步复苏，另一项刺激计划将推动经济增长高于国会预算办公室3.7%的新预测。失业率应该会从目前的6.3%下降，但这将是艰难的，因为劳动力数据中的细节显示了更令人担忧的情况。</blockquote> Specifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.<blockquote>具体来说，长期失业率（计算失业超过27周的美国人）的绝对值和占整体失业人口的百分比继续上升。在全球金融危机后刚刚开始复苏后，劳动力参与率也急剧下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b7d431bf277dd17f778f2af110445c\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"639\"><blockquote></blockquote> Many of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a&nbsp;story that stretches back to the 1960s&nbsp;when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.<blockquote>当所有这些人回到购物中心时，许多失去的工作可能会重新出现。但其中许多趋势都是一个可以追溯到20世纪60年代的故事的一部分，当时25-54岁的男性（所谓的“黄金年龄”）开始退出劳动力市场，因为包括全球竞争、技术创新和工会削弱在内的复杂力量。当危机来袭时，其中一些趋势才刚刚改善。</blockquote> Meanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand&nbsp;the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some&nbsp;80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.<blockquote>与此同时，我们才刚刚开始理解职业女性所受到的冲击。即使经济复苏已经开始，一月份离开劳动力市场的人中仍有约80%是女性。</blockquote> All recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.<blockquote>所有的衰退都会加剧就业和失业者之间的不匹配，但这次可能更糟。当危机来袭时，公司通常会增加新技术来削减运营成本。然而，这一次，大流行后新的消费者模式和偏好将进一步破坏。</blockquote> When the recovery comes, as a&nbsp;study&nbsp;by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.<blockquote>正如纽约联邦储备银行的一项研究指出的那样，当复苏到来时，新的工作岗位将不适合那些被解雇的人的技能。这并不是说空乘人员不能在在线零售商的物流中心获得陆地工作，但这很难是自动的或舒适的。</blockquote> And, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.<blockquote>而且，这不仅仅是训练的问题。如果他们的前雇主不在需求复苏时看涨期权他们重返工作岗位，那么寻找工作的时间将会更长。如果前雇主破产了，那就更难了。根据一项指标，自去年1月以来，近三分之一的小企业已经关闭。</blockquote> These are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata&nbsp;points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.<blockquote>这些都不是即使有另一个刺激方案也能轻易解决的问题。正如经济学家Marco Annunziata指出的那样，长期失业者尤其需要足够的支持，而不会削弱重返劳动力市场的动力。进步还需要对培训和教育进行投资，并且可能需要很长时间才能取得成果。</blockquote> For investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.&nbsp; The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.<blockquote>对投资者来说，“好消息”是，如果你想用看涨期权的话，这些都是长期趋势，不太可能削弱近期市场回报。坏消息是，从许多方面来看，美国的劳动力继续恶化，对长期增长产生各种影响，更不用说政治稳定了。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-rightly-sees-an-economic-rebound-but-is-overlooking-these-worrisome-details-11613400002?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-rightly-sees-an-economic-rebound-but-is-overlooking-these-worrisome-details-11613400002?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1121326703","content_text":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed\nThe hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.\nIn fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.\nBut as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.\nAs shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.\nWith all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the European Commission upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the International Monetary Fund and the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.\nU.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.\nKa-BOOM!\nOur central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.\nSpecifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.\n\nMany of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a story that stretches back to the 1960s when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.\nMeanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some 80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.\nAll recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.\nWhen the recovery comes, as a study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.\nAnd, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.\nThese are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.\nFor investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.  The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":382542772,"gmtCreate":1613470224796,"gmtModify":1634553553802,"author":{"id":"3573607919761122","authorId":"3573607919761122","name":"4onemoreday","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d6bd2814e5f11f991de0ed780343b74","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3573607919761122","authorIdStr":"3573607919761122"},"htmlText":"Okay","listText":"Okay","text":"Okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382542772","repostId":1121326703,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121326703","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613456527,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121326703?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 14:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121326703","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed\nThe hottest question in Washington these days is how ","content":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed<blockquote>看看这个衡量长期失业者的指标</blockquote> The hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.<blockquote>这些天华盛顿最热门的问题是美国应该在复苏上多花多少钱，这是一个经典的数据罗夏测验。一些人盯着不断下降的失业率，认为经济正在恢复正常。其他人担心他们下降得不够快，并担心挥之不去的疤痕会损害长期增长。</blockquote> In fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market&nbsp;certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.<blockquote>事实上，两个群体都可能是对的。近期复苏看起来相当强劲，特别是如果另一项刺激计划将提高的失业救济金延长到秋季。股市当然感觉到一个辉煌的夏天即将到来。</blockquote> But as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.<blockquote>但随着公司利用冲击推出节省成本的技术，以及消费者带着新习惯走出封锁，相同的旧工作岗位将不会全部填补。这场危机将让更多的人满足于更低的工资或完全退出劳动力市场，要治愈经济创伤，需要的不仅仅是砸钱。</blockquote> As shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.<blockquote>正如新冠疫情对去年经济的冲击一样，全球同步的政策反应更令人惊讶。央行降息，财政部削减支票，寻找疫苗的惊人努力现在已经提供了几种高效的选择。</blockquote> With all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the&nbsp;European Commission&nbsp;upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the&nbsp;International Monetary Fund&nbsp;and the&nbsp;Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.<blockquote>随着所有资金在世界各地流动，我们怎么能不期待大幅反弹呢？就连欧盟委员会的预言家上周也上调了经济预测，效仿国际货币基金组织和经济合作与发展组织的同行设定的趋势。</blockquote> U.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.<blockquote>美国失业率较去年3月14.7%的峰值下降了一半以上，而家庭储蓄健康，债务较低。在政府的额外支持下，较贫困的家庭甚至报告收入略高。大公司现金充裕，银行有充足的放贷能力。随着冬去春来，美国人一打第二针就计划疯狂购物和异国旅行来控制他们的幽居病。</blockquote> Ka-BOOM!<blockquote>砰！</blockquote> Our central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the&nbsp;Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.<blockquote>我们的核心情景是今年稳步复苏，另一项刺激计划将推动经济增长高于国会预算办公室3.7%的新预测。失业率应该会从目前的6.3%下降，但这将是艰难的，因为劳动力数据中的细节显示了更令人担忧的情况。</blockquote> Specifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.<blockquote>具体来说，长期失业率（计算失业超过27周的美国人）的绝对值和占整体失业人口的百分比继续上升。在全球金融危机后刚刚开始复苏后，劳动力参与率也急剧下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b7d431bf277dd17f778f2af110445c\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"639\"><blockquote></blockquote> Many of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a&nbsp;story that stretches back to the 1960s&nbsp;when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.<blockquote>当所有这些人回到购物中心时，许多失去的工作可能会重新出现。但其中许多趋势都是一个可以追溯到20世纪60年代的故事的一部分，当时25-54岁的男性（所谓的“黄金年龄”）开始退出劳动力市场，因为包括全球竞争、技术创新和工会削弱在内的复杂力量。当危机来袭时，其中一些趋势才刚刚改善。</blockquote> Meanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand&nbsp;the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some&nbsp;80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.<blockquote>与此同时，我们才刚刚开始理解职业女性所受到的冲击。即使经济复苏已经开始，一月份离开劳动力市场的人中仍有约80%是女性。</blockquote> All recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.<blockquote>所有的衰退都会加剧就业和失业者之间的不匹配，但这次可能更糟。当危机来袭时，公司通常会增加新技术来削减运营成本。然而，这一次，大流行后新的消费者模式和偏好将进一步破坏。</blockquote> When the recovery comes, as a&nbsp;study&nbsp;by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.<blockquote>正如纽约联邦储备银行的一项研究指出的那样，当复苏到来时，新的工作岗位将不适合那些被解雇的人的技能。这并不是说空乘人员不能在在线零售商的物流中心获得陆地工作，但这很难是自动的或舒适的。</blockquote> And, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.<blockquote>而且，这不仅仅是训练的问题。如果他们的前雇主不在需求复苏时看涨期权他们重返工作岗位，那么寻找工作的时间将会更长。如果前雇主破产了，那就更难了。根据一项指标，自去年1月以来，近三分之一的小企业已经关闭。</blockquote> These are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata&nbsp;points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.<blockquote>这些都不是即使有另一个刺激方案也能轻易解决的问题。正如经济学家Marco Annunziata指出的那样，长期失业者尤其需要足够的支持，而不会削弱重返劳动力市场的动力。进步还需要对培训和教育进行投资，并且可能需要很长时间才能取得成果。</blockquote> For investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.&nbsp; The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.<blockquote>对投资者来说，“好消息”是，如果你想用看涨期权的话，这些都是长期趋势，不太可能削弱近期市场回报。坏消息是，从许多方面来看，美国的劳动力继续恶化，对长期增长产生各种影响，更不用说政治稳定了。</blockquote>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-02-16 14:22\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nWatch this measure of the long-term unemployed<blockquote>看看这个衡量长期失业者的指标</blockquote> The hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.<blockquote>这些天华盛顿最热门的问题是美国应该在复苏上多花多少钱，这是一个经典的数据罗夏测验。一些人盯着不断下降的失业率，认为经济正在恢复正常。其他人担心他们下降得不够快，并担心挥之不去的疤痕会损害长期增长。</blockquote> In fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market&nbsp;certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.<blockquote>事实上，两个群体都可能是对的。近期复苏看起来相当强劲，特别是如果另一项刺激计划将提高的失业救济金延长到秋季。股市当然感觉到一个辉煌的夏天即将到来。</blockquote> But as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.<blockquote>但随着公司利用冲击推出节省成本的技术，以及消费者带着新习惯走出封锁，相同的旧工作岗位将不会全部填补。这场危机将让更多的人满足于更低的工资或完全退出劳动力市场，要治愈经济创伤，需要的不仅仅是砸钱。</blockquote> As shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.<blockquote>正如新冠疫情对去年经济的冲击一样，全球同步的政策反应更令人惊讶。央行降息，财政部削减支票，寻找疫苗的惊人努力现在已经提供了几种高效的选择。</blockquote> With all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the&nbsp;European Commission&nbsp;upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the&nbsp;International Monetary Fund&nbsp;and the&nbsp;Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.<blockquote>随着所有资金在世界各地流动，我们怎么能不期待大幅反弹呢？就连欧盟委员会的预言家上周也上调了经济预测，效仿国际货币基金组织和经济合作与发展组织的同行设定的趋势。</blockquote> U.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.<blockquote>美国失业率较去年3月14.7%的峰值下降了一半以上，而家庭储蓄健康，债务较低。在政府的额外支持下，较贫困的家庭甚至报告收入略高。大公司现金充裕，银行有充足的放贷能力。随着冬去春来，美国人一打第二针就计划疯狂购物和异国旅行来控制他们的幽居病。</blockquote> Ka-BOOM!<blockquote>砰！</blockquote> Our central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the&nbsp;Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.<blockquote>我们的核心情景是今年稳步复苏，另一项刺激计划将推动经济增长高于国会预算办公室3.7%的新预测。失业率应该会从目前的6.3%下降，但这将是艰难的，因为劳动力数据中的细节显示了更令人担忧的情况。</blockquote> Specifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.<blockquote>具体来说，长期失业率（计算失业超过27周的美国人）的绝对值和占整体失业人口的百分比继续上升。在全球金融危机后刚刚开始复苏后，劳动力参与率也急剧下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b7d431bf277dd17f778f2af110445c\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"639\"><blockquote></blockquote> Many of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a&nbsp;story that stretches back to the 1960s&nbsp;when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.<blockquote>当所有这些人回到购物中心时，许多失去的工作可能会重新出现。但其中许多趋势都是一个可以追溯到20世纪60年代的故事的一部分，当时25-54岁的男性（所谓的“黄金年龄”）开始退出劳动力市场，因为包括全球竞争、技术创新和工会削弱在内的复杂力量。当危机来袭时，其中一些趋势才刚刚改善。</blockquote> Meanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand&nbsp;the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some&nbsp;80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.<blockquote>与此同时，我们才刚刚开始理解职业女性所受到的冲击。即使经济复苏已经开始，一月份离开劳动力市场的人中仍有约80%是女性。</blockquote> All recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.<blockquote>所有的衰退都会加剧就业和失业者之间的不匹配，但这次可能更糟。当危机来袭时，公司通常会增加新技术来削减运营成本。然而，这一次，大流行后新的消费者模式和偏好将进一步破坏。</blockquote> When the recovery comes, as a&nbsp;study&nbsp;by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.<blockquote>正如纽约联邦储备银行的一项研究指出的那样，当复苏到来时，新的工作岗位将不适合那些被解雇的人的技能。这并不是说空乘人员不能在在线零售商的物流中心获得陆地工作，但这很难是自动的或舒适的。</blockquote> And, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.<blockquote>而且，这不仅仅是训练的问题。如果他们的前雇主不在需求复苏时看涨期权他们重返工作岗位，那么寻找工作的时间将会更长。如果前雇主破产了，那就更难了。根据一项指标，自去年1月以来，近三分之一的小企业已经关闭。</blockquote> These are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata&nbsp;points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.<blockquote>这些都不是即使有另一个刺激方案也能轻易解决的问题。正如经济学家Marco Annunziata指出的那样，长期失业者尤其需要足够的支持，而不会削弱重返劳动力市场的动力。进步还需要对培训和教育进行投资，并且可能需要很长时间才能取得成果。</blockquote> For investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.&nbsp; The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.<blockquote>对投资者来说，“好消息”是，如果你想用看涨期权的话，这些都是长期趋势，不太可能削弱近期市场回报。坏消息是，从许多方面来看，美国的劳动力继续恶化，对长期增长产生各种影响，更不用说政治稳定了。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-rightly-sees-an-economic-rebound-but-is-overlooking-these-worrisome-details-11613400002?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-rightly-sees-an-economic-rebound-but-is-overlooking-these-worrisome-details-11613400002?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1121326703","content_text":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed\nThe hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.\nIn fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.\nBut as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.\nAs shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.\nWith all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the European Commission upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the International Monetary Fund and the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.\nU.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.\nKa-BOOM!\nOur central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.\nSpecifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.\n\nMany of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a story that stretches back to the 1960s when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.\nMeanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some 80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.\nAll recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.\nWhen the recovery comes, as a study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.\nAnd, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.\nThese are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.\nFor investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.  The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":382279100,"gmtCreate":1613459009000,"gmtModify":1634553595983,"author":{"id":"3567668858240635","authorId":"3567668858240635","name":"chunyangtoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2ddf7577dcc18a4754ac4fc71559035","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3567668858240635","authorIdStr":"3567668858240635"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382279100","repostId":1121326703,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121326703","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613456527,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121326703?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 14:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121326703","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed\nThe hottest question in Washington these days is how ","content":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed<blockquote>看看这个衡量长期失业者的指标</blockquote> The hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.<blockquote>这些天华盛顿最热门的问题是美国应该在复苏上多花多少钱，这是一个经典的数据罗夏测验。一些人盯着不断下降的失业率，认为经济正在恢复正常。其他人担心他们下降得不够快，并担心挥之不去的疤痕会损害长期增长。</blockquote> In fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market&nbsp;certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.<blockquote>事实上，两个群体都可能是对的。近期复苏看起来相当强劲，特别是如果另一项刺激计划将提高的失业救济金延长到秋季。股市当然感觉到一个辉煌的夏天即将到来。</blockquote> But as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.<blockquote>但随着公司利用冲击推出节省成本的技术，以及消费者带着新习惯走出封锁，相同的旧工作岗位将不会全部填补。这场危机将让更多的人满足于更低的工资或完全退出劳动力市场，要治愈经济创伤，需要的不仅仅是砸钱。</blockquote> As shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.<blockquote>正如新冠疫情对去年经济的冲击一样，全球同步的政策反应更令人惊讶。央行降息，财政部削减支票，寻找疫苗的惊人努力现在已经提供了几种高效的选择。</blockquote> With all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the&nbsp;European Commission&nbsp;upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the&nbsp;International Monetary Fund&nbsp;and the&nbsp;Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.<blockquote>随着所有资金在世界各地流动，我们怎么能不期待大幅反弹呢？就连欧盟委员会的预言家上周也上调了经济预测，效仿国际货币基金组织和经济合作与发展组织的同行设定的趋势。</blockquote> U.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.<blockquote>美国失业率较去年3月14.7%的峰值下降了一半以上，而家庭储蓄健康，债务较低。在政府的额外支持下，较贫困的家庭甚至报告收入略高。大公司现金充裕，银行有充足的放贷能力。随着冬去春来，美国人一打第二针就计划疯狂购物和异国旅行来控制他们的幽居病。</blockquote> Ka-BOOM!<blockquote>砰！</blockquote> Our central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the&nbsp;Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.<blockquote>我们的核心情景是今年稳步复苏，另一项刺激计划将推动经济增长高于国会预算办公室3.7%的新预测。失业率应该会从目前的6.3%下降，但这将是艰难的，因为劳动力数据中的细节显示了更令人担忧的情况。</blockquote> Specifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.<blockquote>具体来说，长期失业率（计算失业超过27周的美国人）的绝对值和占整体失业人口的百分比继续上升。在全球金融危机后刚刚开始复苏后，劳动力参与率也急剧下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b7d431bf277dd17f778f2af110445c\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"639\"><blockquote></blockquote> Many of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a&nbsp;story that stretches back to the 1960s&nbsp;when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.<blockquote>当所有这些人回到购物中心时，许多失去的工作可能会重新出现。但其中许多趋势都是一个可以追溯到20世纪60年代的故事的一部分，当时25-54岁的男性（所谓的“黄金年龄”）开始退出劳动力市场，因为包括全球竞争、技术创新和工会削弱在内的复杂力量。当危机来袭时，其中一些趋势才刚刚改善。</blockquote> Meanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand&nbsp;the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some&nbsp;80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.<blockquote>与此同时，我们才刚刚开始理解职业女性所受到的冲击。即使经济复苏已经开始，一月份离开劳动力市场的人中仍有约80%是女性。</blockquote> All recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.<blockquote>所有的衰退都会加剧就业和失业者之间的不匹配，但这次可能更糟。当危机来袭时，公司通常会增加新技术来削减运营成本。然而，这一次，大流行后新的消费者模式和偏好将进一步破坏。</blockquote> When the recovery comes, as a&nbsp;study&nbsp;by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.<blockquote>正如纽约联邦储备银行的一项研究指出的那样，当复苏到来时，新的工作岗位将不适合那些被解雇的人的技能。这并不是说空乘人员不能在在线零售商的物流中心获得陆地工作，但这很难是自动的或舒适的。</blockquote> And, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.<blockquote>而且，这不仅仅是训练的问题。如果他们的前雇主不在需求复苏时看涨期权他们重返工作岗位，那么寻找工作的时间将会更长。如果前雇主破产了，那就更难了。根据一项指标，自去年1月以来，近三分之一的小企业已经关闭。</blockquote> These are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata&nbsp;points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.<blockquote>这些都不是即使有另一个刺激方案也能轻易解决的问题。正如经济学家Marco Annunziata指出的那样，长期失业者尤其需要足够的支持，而不会削弱重返劳动力市场的动力。进步还需要对培训和教育进行投资，并且可能需要很长时间才能取得成果。</blockquote> For investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.&nbsp; The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.<blockquote>对投资者来说，“好消息”是，如果你想用看涨期权的话，这些都是长期趋势，不太可能削弱近期市场回报。坏消息是，从许多方面来看，美国的劳动力继续恶化，对长期增长产生各种影响，更不用说政治稳定了。</blockquote>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-02-16 14:22\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nWatch this measure of the long-term unemployed<blockquote>看看这个衡量长期失业者的指标</blockquote> The hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.<blockquote>这些天华盛顿最热门的问题是美国应该在复苏上多花多少钱，这是一个经典的数据罗夏测验。一些人盯着不断下降的失业率，认为经济正在恢复正常。其他人担心他们下降得不够快，并担心挥之不去的疤痕会损害长期增长。</blockquote> In fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market&nbsp;certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.<blockquote>事实上，两个群体都可能是对的。近期复苏看起来相当强劲，特别是如果另一项刺激计划将提高的失业救济金延长到秋季。股市当然感觉到一个辉煌的夏天即将到来。</blockquote> But as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.<blockquote>但随着公司利用冲击推出节省成本的技术，以及消费者带着新习惯走出封锁，相同的旧工作岗位将不会全部填补。这场危机将让更多的人满足于更低的工资或完全退出劳动力市场，要治愈经济创伤，需要的不仅仅是砸钱。</blockquote> As shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.<blockquote>正如新冠疫情对去年经济的冲击一样，全球同步的政策反应更令人惊讶。央行降息，财政部削减支票，寻找疫苗的惊人努力现在已经提供了几种高效的选择。</blockquote> With all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the&nbsp;European Commission&nbsp;upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the&nbsp;International Monetary Fund&nbsp;and the&nbsp;Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.<blockquote>随着所有资金在世界各地流动，我们怎么能不期待大幅反弹呢？就连欧盟委员会的预言家上周也上调了经济预测，效仿国际货币基金组织和经济合作与发展组织的同行设定的趋势。</blockquote> U.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.<blockquote>美国失业率较去年3月14.7%的峰值下降了一半以上，而家庭储蓄健康，债务较低。在政府的额外支持下，较贫困的家庭甚至报告收入略高。大公司现金充裕，银行有充足的放贷能力。随着冬去春来，美国人一打第二针就计划疯狂购物和异国旅行来控制他们的幽居病。</blockquote> Ka-BOOM!<blockquote>砰！</blockquote> Our central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the&nbsp;Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.<blockquote>我们的核心情景是今年稳步复苏，另一项刺激计划将推动经济增长高于国会预算办公室3.7%的新预测。失业率应该会从目前的6.3%下降，但这将是艰难的，因为劳动力数据中的细节显示了更令人担忧的情况。</blockquote> Specifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.<blockquote>具体来说，长期失业率（计算失业超过27周的美国人）的绝对值和占整体失业人口的百分比继续上升。在全球金融危机后刚刚开始复苏后，劳动力参与率也急剧下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b7d431bf277dd17f778f2af110445c\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"639\"><blockquote></blockquote> Many of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a&nbsp;story that stretches back to the 1960s&nbsp;when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.<blockquote>当所有这些人回到购物中心时，许多失去的工作可能会重新出现。但其中许多趋势都是一个可以追溯到20世纪60年代的故事的一部分，当时25-54岁的男性（所谓的“黄金年龄”）开始退出劳动力市场，因为包括全球竞争、技术创新和工会削弱在内的复杂力量。当危机来袭时，其中一些趋势才刚刚改善。</blockquote> Meanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand&nbsp;the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some&nbsp;80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.<blockquote>与此同时，我们才刚刚开始理解职业女性所受到的冲击。即使经济复苏已经开始，一月份离开劳动力市场的人中仍有约80%是女性。</blockquote> All recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.<blockquote>所有的衰退都会加剧就业和失业者之间的不匹配，但这次可能更糟。当危机来袭时，公司通常会增加新技术来削减运营成本。然而，这一次，大流行后新的消费者模式和偏好将进一步破坏。</blockquote> When the recovery comes, as a&nbsp;study&nbsp;by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.<blockquote>正如纽约联邦储备银行的一项研究指出的那样，当复苏到来时，新的工作岗位将不适合那些被解雇的人的技能。这并不是说空乘人员不能在在线零售商的物流中心获得陆地工作，但这很难是自动的或舒适的。</blockquote> And, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.<blockquote>而且，这不仅仅是训练的问题。如果他们的前雇主不在需求复苏时看涨期权他们重返工作岗位，那么寻找工作的时间将会更长。如果前雇主破产了，那就更难了。根据一项指标，自去年1月以来，近三分之一的小企业已经关闭。</blockquote> These are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata&nbsp;points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.<blockquote>这些都不是即使有另一个刺激方案也能轻易解决的问题。正如经济学家Marco Annunziata指出的那样，长期失业者尤其需要足够的支持，而不会削弱重返劳动力市场的动力。进步还需要对培训和教育进行投资，并且可能需要很长时间才能取得成果。</blockquote> For investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.&nbsp; The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.<blockquote>对投资者来说，“好消息”是，如果你想用看涨期权的话，这些都是长期趋势，不太可能削弱近期市场回报。坏消息是，从许多方面来看，美国的劳动力继续恶化，对长期增长产生各种影响，更不用说政治稳定了。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-rightly-sees-an-economic-rebound-but-is-overlooking-these-worrisome-details-11613400002?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-rightly-sees-an-economic-rebound-but-is-overlooking-these-worrisome-details-11613400002?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1121326703","content_text":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed\nThe hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.\nIn fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.\nBut as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.\nAs shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.\nWith all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the European Commission upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the International Monetary Fund and the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.\nU.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.\nKa-BOOM!\nOur central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.\nSpecifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.\n\nMany of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a story that stretches back to the 1960s when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.\nMeanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some 80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.\nAll recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.\nWhen the recovery comes, as a study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.\nAnd, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.\nThese are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.\nFor investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.  The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3578479,"gmtCreate":1613460282055,"gmtModify":1635764030995,"authorId":3555414544558416,"author":{"id":3555414544558416,"idStr":"3555414544558416","authorId":3555414544558416,"name":"车厘子tomato","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6dbabc7e37fc0d611c52a5194f61d58","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":382279100,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"comment for comment! like for like","text":"comment for comment! like for like","html":"comment for comment! like for like"},{"id":3578775,"gmtCreate":1613464454264,"gmtModify":1635764018549,"authorId":3566821013640470,"author":{"id":3566821013640470,"idStr":"3566821013640470","authorId":3566821013640470,"name":"Jazling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85e0a83573d9307f57fca9b2baed72af","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":382279100,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"},{"id":3578814,"gmtCreate":1613464939225,"gmtModify":1635764017467,"authorId":3575264151875594,"author":{"id":3575264151875594,"idStr":"3575264151875594","authorId":3575264151875594,"name":"NGJA0003","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26c301944ad37211b74fb2f143dbaa45","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":382279100,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Comment Pls!","text":"Comment Pls!","html":"Comment Pls!"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":382247379,"gmtCreate":1613458795391,"gmtModify":1634553597077,"author":{"id":"3574321920996186","authorId":"3574321920996186","name":"onezero","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78a6fcdcf896cad792f2b119c43dbff5","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574321920996186","authorIdStr":"3574321920996186"},"htmlText":"Good to know","listText":"Good to know","text":"Good to know","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382247379","repostId":1121326703,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121326703","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613456527,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121326703?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 14:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121326703","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed\nThe hottest question in Washington these days is how ","content":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed<blockquote>看看这个衡量长期失业者的指标</blockquote> The hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.<blockquote>这些天华盛顿最热门的问题是美国应该在复苏上多花多少钱，这是一个经典的数据罗夏测验。一些人盯着不断下降的失业率，认为经济正在恢复正常。其他人担心他们下降得不够快，并担心挥之不去的疤痕会损害长期增长。</blockquote> In fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market&nbsp;certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.<blockquote>事实上，两个群体都可能是对的。近期复苏看起来相当强劲，特别是如果另一项刺激计划将提高的失业救济金延长到秋季。股市当然感觉到一个辉煌的夏天即将到来。</blockquote> But as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.<blockquote>但随着公司利用冲击推出节省成本的技术，以及消费者带着新习惯走出封锁，相同的旧工作岗位将不会全部填补。这场危机将让更多的人满足于更低的工资或完全退出劳动力市场，要治愈经济创伤，需要的不仅仅是砸钱。</blockquote> As shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.<blockquote>正如新冠疫情对去年经济的冲击一样，全球同步的政策反应更令人惊讶。央行降息，财政部削减支票，寻找疫苗的惊人努力现在已经提供了几种高效的选择。</blockquote> With all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the&nbsp;European Commission&nbsp;upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the&nbsp;International Monetary Fund&nbsp;and the&nbsp;Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.<blockquote>随着所有资金在世界各地流动，我们怎么能不期待大幅反弹呢？就连欧盟委员会的预言家上周也上调了经济预测，效仿国际货币基金组织和经济合作与发展组织的同行设定的趋势。</blockquote> U.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.<blockquote>美国失业率较去年3月14.7%的峰值下降了一半以上，而家庭储蓄健康，债务较低。在政府的额外支持下，较贫困的家庭甚至报告收入略高。大公司现金充裕，银行有充足的放贷能力。随着冬去春来，美国人一打第二针就计划疯狂购物和异国旅行来控制他们的幽居病。</blockquote> Ka-BOOM!<blockquote>砰！</blockquote> Our central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the&nbsp;Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.<blockquote>我们的核心情景是今年稳步复苏，另一项刺激计划将推动经济增长高于国会预算办公室3.7%的新预测。失业率应该会从目前的6.3%下降，但这将是艰难的，因为劳动力数据中的细节显示了更令人担忧的情况。</blockquote> Specifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.<blockquote>具体来说，长期失业率（计算失业超过27周的美国人）的绝对值和占整体失业人口的百分比继续上升。在全球金融危机后刚刚开始复苏后，劳动力参与率也急剧下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b7d431bf277dd17f778f2af110445c\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"639\"><blockquote></blockquote> Many of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a&nbsp;story that stretches back to the 1960s&nbsp;when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.<blockquote>当所有这些人回到购物中心时，许多失去的工作可能会重新出现。但其中许多趋势都是一个可以追溯到20世纪60年代的故事的一部分，当时25-54岁的男性（所谓的“黄金年龄”）开始退出劳动力市场，因为包括全球竞争、技术创新和工会削弱在内的复杂力量。当危机来袭时，其中一些趋势才刚刚改善。</blockquote> Meanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand&nbsp;the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some&nbsp;80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.<blockquote>与此同时，我们才刚刚开始理解职业女性所受到的冲击。即使经济复苏已经开始，一月份离开劳动力市场的人中仍有约80%是女性。</blockquote> All recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.<blockquote>所有的衰退都会加剧就业和失业者之间的不匹配，但这次可能更糟。当危机来袭时，公司通常会增加新技术来削减运营成本。然而，这一次，大流行后新的消费者模式和偏好将进一步破坏。</blockquote> When the recovery comes, as a&nbsp;study&nbsp;by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.<blockquote>正如纽约联邦储备银行的一项研究指出的那样，当复苏到来时，新的工作岗位将不适合那些被解雇的人的技能。这并不是说空乘人员不能在在线零售商的物流中心获得陆地工作，但这很难是自动的或舒适的。</blockquote> And, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.<blockquote>而且，这不仅仅是训练的问题。如果他们的前雇主不在需求复苏时看涨期权他们重返工作岗位，那么寻找工作的时间将会更长。如果前雇主破产了，那就更难了。根据一项指标，自去年1月以来，近三分之一的小企业已经关闭。</blockquote> These are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata&nbsp;points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.<blockquote>这些都不是即使有另一个刺激方案也能轻易解决的问题。正如经济学家Marco Annunziata指出的那样，长期失业者尤其需要足够的支持，而不会削弱重返劳动力市场的动力。进步还需要对培训和教育进行投资，并且可能需要很长时间才能取得成果。</blockquote> For investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.&nbsp; The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.<blockquote>对投资者来说，“好消息”是，如果你想用看涨期权的话，这些都是长期趋势，不太可能削弱近期市场回报。坏消息是，从许多方面来看，美国的劳动力继续恶化，对长期增长产生各种影响，更不用说政治稳定了。</blockquote>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-02-16 14:22\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nWatch this measure of the long-term unemployed<blockquote>看看这个衡量长期失业者的指标</blockquote> The hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.<blockquote>这些天华盛顿最热门的问题是美国应该在复苏上多花多少钱，这是一个经典的数据罗夏测验。一些人盯着不断下降的失业率，认为经济正在恢复正常。其他人担心他们下降得不够快，并担心挥之不去的疤痕会损害长期增长。</blockquote> In fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market&nbsp;certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.<blockquote>事实上，两个群体都可能是对的。近期复苏看起来相当强劲，特别是如果另一项刺激计划将提高的失业救济金延长到秋季。股市当然感觉到一个辉煌的夏天即将到来。</blockquote> But as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.<blockquote>但随着公司利用冲击推出节省成本的技术，以及消费者带着新习惯走出封锁，相同的旧工作岗位将不会全部填补。这场危机将让更多的人满足于更低的工资或完全退出劳动力市场，要治愈经济创伤，需要的不仅仅是砸钱。</blockquote> As shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.<blockquote>正如新冠疫情对去年经济的冲击一样，全球同步的政策反应更令人惊讶。央行降息，财政部削减支票，寻找疫苗的惊人努力现在已经提供了几种高效的选择。</blockquote> With all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the&nbsp;European Commission&nbsp;upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the&nbsp;International Monetary Fund&nbsp;and the&nbsp;Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.<blockquote>随着所有资金在世界各地流动，我们怎么能不期待大幅反弹呢？就连欧盟委员会的预言家上周也上调了经济预测，效仿国际货币基金组织和经济合作与发展组织的同行设定的趋势。</blockquote> U.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.<blockquote>美国失业率较去年3月14.7%的峰值下降了一半以上，而家庭储蓄健康，债务较低。在政府的额外支持下，较贫困的家庭甚至报告收入略高。大公司现金充裕，银行有充足的放贷能力。随着冬去春来，美国人一打第二针就计划疯狂购物和异国旅行来控制他们的幽居病。</blockquote> Ka-BOOM!<blockquote>砰！</blockquote> Our central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the&nbsp;Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.<blockquote>我们的核心情景是今年稳步复苏，另一项刺激计划将推动经济增长高于国会预算办公室3.7%的新预测。失业率应该会从目前的6.3%下降，但这将是艰难的，因为劳动力数据中的细节显示了更令人担忧的情况。</blockquote> Specifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.<blockquote>具体来说，长期失业率（计算失业超过27周的美国人）的绝对值和占整体失业人口的百分比继续上升。在全球金融危机后刚刚开始复苏后，劳动力参与率也急剧下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b7d431bf277dd17f778f2af110445c\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"639\"><blockquote></blockquote> Many of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a&nbsp;story that stretches back to the 1960s&nbsp;when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.<blockquote>当所有这些人回到购物中心时，许多失去的工作可能会重新出现。但其中许多趋势都是一个可以追溯到20世纪60年代的故事的一部分，当时25-54岁的男性（所谓的“黄金年龄”）开始退出劳动力市场，因为包括全球竞争、技术创新和工会削弱在内的复杂力量。当危机来袭时，其中一些趋势才刚刚改善。</blockquote> Meanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand&nbsp;the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some&nbsp;80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.<blockquote>与此同时，我们才刚刚开始理解职业女性所受到的冲击。即使经济复苏已经开始，一月份离开劳动力市场的人中仍有约80%是女性。</blockquote> All recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.<blockquote>所有的衰退都会加剧就业和失业者之间的不匹配，但这次可能更糟。当危机来袭时，公司通常会增加新技术来削减运营成本。然而，这一次，大流行后新的消费者模式和偏好将进一步破坏。</blockquote> When the recovery comes, as a&nbsp;study&nbsp;by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.<blockquote>正如纽约联邦储备银行的一项研究指出的那样，当复苏到来时，新的工作岗位将不适合那些被解雇的人的技能。这并不是说空乘人员不能在在线零售商的物流中心获得陆地工作，但这很难是自动的或舒适的。</blockquote> And, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.<blockquote>而且，这不仅仅是训练的问题。如果他们的前雇主不在需求复苏时看涨期权他们重返工作岗位，那么寻找工作的时间将会更长。如果前雇主破产了，那就更难了。根据一项指标，自去年1月以来，近三分之一的小企业已经关闭。</blockquote> These are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata&nbsp;points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.<blockquote>这些都不是即使有另一个刺激方案也能轻易解决的问题。正如经济学家Marco Annunziata指出的那样，长期失业者尤其需要足够的支持，而不会削弱重返劳动力市场的动力。进步还需要对培训和教育进行投资，并且可能需要很长时间才能取得成果。</blockquote> For investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.&nbsp; The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.<blockquote>对投资者来说，“好消息”是，如果你想用看涨期权的话，这些都是长期趋势，不太可能削弱近期市场回报。坏消息是，从许多方面来看，美国的劳动力继续恶化，对长期增长产生各种影响，更不用说政治稳定了。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-rightly-sees-an-economic-rebound-but-is-overlooking-these-worrisome-details-11613400002?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-rightly-sees-an-economic-rebound-but-is-overlooking-these-worrisome-details-11613400002?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1121326703","content_text":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed\nThe hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.\nIn fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.\nBut as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.\nAs shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.\nWith all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the European Commission upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the International Monetary Fund and the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.\nU.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.\nKa-BOOM!\nOur central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.\nSpecifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.\n\nMany of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a story that stretches back to the 1960s when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.\nMeanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some 80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.\nAll recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.\nWhen the recovery comes, as a study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.\nAnd, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.\nThese are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.\nFor investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.  The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3578480,"gmtCreate":1613460295402,"gmtModify":1635764030887,"authorId":3555414544558416,"author":{"id":3555414544558416,"idStr":"3555414544558416","authorId":3555414544558416,"name":"车厘子tomato","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6dbabc7e37fc0d611c52a5194f61d58","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":382247379,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"comment for comment! like for like","text":"comment for comment! like for like","html":"comment for comment! like for like"},{"id":3578560,"gmtCreate":1613461765650,"gmtModify":1635764027745,"authorId":3574321920996186,"author":{"id":3574321920996186,"idStr":"3574321920996186","authorId":3574321920996186,"name":"onezero","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78a6fcdcf896cad792f2b119c43dbff5","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":382247379,"type":1,"supId":3578480,"prevId":0,"content":"[开心]","text":"[开心]","html":"[开心]"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":382246216,"gmtCreate":1613458408135,"gmtModify":1634553600198,"author":{"id":"3568776369893575","authorId":"3568776369893575","name":"MingXuan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6843a33a5048452e1f1380ec02671e9","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3568776369893575","authorIdStr":"3568776369893575"},"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382246216","repostId":1121326703,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121326703","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613456527,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121326703?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 14:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121326703","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed\nThe hottest question in Washington these days is how ","content":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed<blockquote>看看这个衡量长期失业者的指标</blockquote> The hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.<blockquote>这些天华盛顿最热门的问题是美国应该在复苏上多花多少钱，这是一个经典的数据罗夏测验。一些人盯着不断下降的失业率，认为经济正在恢复正常。其他人担心他们下降得不够快，并担心挥之不去的疤痕会损害长期增长。</blockquote> In fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market&nbsp;certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.<blockquote>事实上，两个群体都可能是对的。近期复苏看起来相当强劲，特别是如果另一项刺激计划将提高的失业救济金延长到秋季。股市当然感觉到一个辉煌的夏天即将到来。</blockquote> But as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.<blockquote>但随着公司利用冲击推出节省成本的技术，以及消费者带着新习惯走出封锁，相同的旧工作岗位将不会全部填补。这场危机将让更多的人满足于更低的工资或完全退出劳动力市场，要治愈经济创伤，需要的不仅仅是砸钱。</blockquote> As shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.<blockquote>正如新冠疫情对去年经济的冲击一样，全球同步的政策反应更令人惊讶。央行降息，财政部削减支票，寻找疫苗的惊人努力现在已经提供了几种高效的选择。</blockquote> With all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the&nbsp;European Commission&nbsp;upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the&nbsp;International Monetary Fund&nbsp;and the&nbsp;Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.<blockquote>随着所有资金在世界各地流动，我们怎么能不期待大幅反弹呢？就连欧盟委员会的预言家上周也上调了经济预测，效仿国际货币基金组织和经济合作与发展组织的同行设定的趋势。</blockquote> U.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.<blockquote>美国失业率较去年3月14.7%的峰值下降了一半以上，而家庭储蓄健康，债务较低。在政府的额外支持下，较贫困的家庭甚至报告收入略高。大公司现金充裕，银行有充足的放贷能力。随着冬去春来，美国人一打第二针就计划疯狂购物和异国旅行来控制他们的幽居病。</blockquote> Ka-BOOM!<blockquote>砰！</blockquote> Our central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the&nbsp;Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.<blockquote>我们的核心情景是今年稳步复苏，另一项刺激计划将推动经济增长高于国会预算办公室3.7%的新预测。失业率应该会从目前的6.3%下降，但这将是艰难的，因为劳动力数据中的细节显示了更令人担忧的情况。</blockquote> Specifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.<blockquote>具体来说，长期失业率（计算失业超过27周的美国人）的绝对值和占整体失业人口的百分比继续上升。在全球金融危机后刚刚开始复苏后，劳动力参与率也急剧下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b7d431bf277dd17f778f2af110445c\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"639\"><blockquote></blockquote> Many of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a&nbsp;story that stretches back to the 1960s&nbsp;when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.<blockquote>当所有这些人回到购物中心时，许多失去的工作可能会重新出现。但其中许多趋势都是一个可以追溯到20世纪60年代的故事的一部分，当时25-54岁的男性（所谓的“黄金年龄”）开始退出劳动力市场，因为包括全球竞争、技术创新和工会削弱在内的复杂力量。当危机来袭时，其中一些趋势才刚刚改善。</blockquote> Meanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand&nbsp;the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some&nbsp;80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.<blockquote>与此同时，我们才刚刚开始理解职业女性所受到的冲击。即使经济复苏已经开始，一月份离开劳动力市场的人中仍有约80%是女性。</blockquote> All recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.<blockquote>所有的衰退都会加剧就业和失业者之间的不匹配，但这次可能更糟。当危机来袭时，公司通常会增加新技术来削减运营成本。然而，这一次，大流行后新的消费者模式和偏好将进一步破坏。</blockquote> When the recovery comes, as a&nbsp;study&nbsp;by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.<blockquote>正如纽约联邦储备银行的一项研究指出的那样，当复苏到来时，新的工作岗位将不适合那些被解雇的人的技能。这并不是说空乘人员不能在在线零售商的物流中心获得陆地工作，但这很难是自动的或舒适的。</blockquote> And, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.<blockquote>而且，这不仅仅是训练的问题。如果他们的前雇主不在需求复苏时看涨期权他们重返工作岗位，那么寻找工作的时间将会更长。如果前雇主破产了，那就更难了。根据一项指标，自去年1月以来，近三分之一的小企业已经关闭。</blockquote> These are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata&nbsp;points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.<blockquote>这些都不是即使有另一个刺激方案也能轻易解决的问题。正如经济学家Marco Annunziata指出的那样，长期失业者尤其需要足够的支持，而不会削弱重返劳动力市场的动力。进步还需要对培训和教育进行投资，并且可能需要很长时间才能取得成果。</blockquote> For investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.&nbsp; The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.<blockquote>对投资者来说，“好消息”是，如果你想用看涨期权的话，这些都是长期趋势，不太可能削弱近期市场回报。坏消息是，从许多方面来看，美国的劳动力继续恶化，对长期增长产生各种影响，更不用说政治稳定了。</blockquote>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-02-16 14:22\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nWatch this measure of the long-term unemployed<blockquote>看看这个衡量长期失业者的指标</blockquote> The hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.<blockquote>这些天华盛顿最热门的问题是美国应该在复苏上多花多少钱，这是一个经典的数据罗夏测验。一些人盯着不断下降的失业率，认为经济正在恢复正常。其他人担心他们下降得不够快，并担心挥之不去的疤痕会损害长期增长。</blockquote> In fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market&nbsp;certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.<blockquote>事实上，两个群体都可能是对的。近期复苏看起来相当强劲，特别是如果另一项刺激计划将提高的失业救济金延长到秋季。股市当然感觉到一个辉煌的夏天即将到来。</blockquote> But as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.<blockquote>但随着公司利用冲击推出节省成本的技术，以及消费者带着新习惯走出封锁，相同的旧工作岗位将不会全部填补。这场危机将让更多的人满足于更低的工资或完全退出劳动力市场，要治愈经济创伤，需要的不仅仅是砸钱。</blockquote> As shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.<blockquote>正如新冠疫情对去年经济的冲击一样，全球同步的政策反应更令人惊讶。央行降息，财政部削减支票，寻找疫苗的惊人努力现在已经提供了几种高效的选择。</blockquote> With all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the&nbsp;European Commission&nbsp;upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the&nbsp;International Monetary Fund&nbsp;and the&nbsp;Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.<blockquote>随着所有资金在世界各地流动，我们怎么能不期待大幅反弹呢？就连欧盟委员会的预言家上周也上调了经济预测，效仿国际货币基金组织和经济合作与发展组织的同行设定的趋势。</blockquote> U.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.<blockquote>美国失业率较去年3月14.7%的峰值下降了一半以上，而家庭储蓄健康，债务较低。在政府的额外支持下，较贫困的家庭甚至报告收入略高。大公司现金充裕，银行有充足的放贷能力。随着冬去春来，美国人一打第二针就计划疯狂购物和异国旅行来控制他们的幽居病。</blockquote> Ka-BOOM!<blockquote>砰！</blockquote> Our central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the&nbsp;Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.<blockquote>我们的核心情景是今年稳步复苏，另一项刺激计划将推动经济增长高于国会预算办公室3.7%的新预测。失业率应该会从目前的6.3%下降，但这将是艰难的，因为劳动力数据中的细节显示了更令人担忧的情况。</blockquote> Specifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.<blockquote>具体来说，长期失业率（计算失业超过27周的美国人）的绝对值和占整体失业人口的百分比继续上升。在全球金融危机后刚刚开始复苏后，劳动力参与率也急剧下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b7d431bf277dd17f778f2af110445c\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"639\"><blockquote></blockquote> Many of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a&nbsp;story that stretches back to the 1960s&nbsp;when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.<blockquote>当所有这些人回到购物中心时，许多失去的工作可能会重新出现。但其中许多趋势都是一个可以追溯到20世纪60年代的故事的一部分，当时25-54岁的男性（所谓的“黄金年龄”）开始退出劳动力市场，因为包括全球竞争、技术创新和工会削弱在内的复杂力量。当危机来袭时，其中一些趋势才刚刚改善。</blockquote> Meanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand&nbsp;the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some&nbsp;80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.<blockquote>与此同时，我们才刚刚开始理解职业女性所受到的冲击。即使经济复苏已经开始，一月份离开劳动力市场的人中仍有约80%是女性。</blockquote> All recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.<blockquote>所有的衰退都会加剧就业和失业者之间的不匹配，但这次可能更糟。当危机来袭时，公司通常会增加新技术来削减运营成本。然而，这一次，大流行后新的消费者模式和偏好将进一步破坏。</blockquote> When the recovery comes, as a&nbsp;study&nbsp;by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.<blockquote>正如纽约联邦储备银行的一项研究指出的那样，当复苏到来时，新的工作岗位将不适合那些被解雇的人的技能。这并不是说空乘人员不能在在线零售商的物流中心获得陆地工作，但这很难是自动的或舒适的。</blockquote> And, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.<blockquote>而且，这不仅仅是训练的问题。如果他们的前雇主不在需求复苏时看涨期权他们重返工作岗位，那么寻找工作的时间将会更长。如果前雇主破产了，那就更难了。根据一项指标，自去年1月以来，近三分之一的小企业已经关闭。</blockquote> These are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata&nbsp;points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.<blockquote>这些都不是即使有另一个刺激方案也能轻易解决的问题。正如经济学家Marco Annunziata指出的那样，长期失业者尤其需要足够的支持，而不会削弱重返劳动力市场的动力。进步还需要对培训和教育进行投资，并且可能需要很长时间才能取得成果。</blockquote> For investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.&nbsp; The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.<blockquote>对投资者来说，“好消息”是，如果你想用看涨期权的话，这些都是长期趋势，不太可能削弱近期市场回报。坏消息是，从许多方面来看，美国的劳动力继续恶化，对长期增长产生各种影响，更不用说政治稳定了。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-rightly-sees-an-economic-rebound-but-is-overlooking-these-worrisome-details-11613400002?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-rightly-sees-an-economic-rebound-but-is-overlooking-these-worrisome-details-11613400002?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1121326703","content_text":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed\nThe hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.\nIn fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.\nBut as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.\nAs shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.\nWith all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the European Commission upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the International Monetary Fund and the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.\nU.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.\nKa-BOOM!\nOur central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.\nSpecifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.\n\nMany of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a story that stretches back to the 1960s when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.\nMeanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some 80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.\nAll recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.\nWhen the recovery comes, as a study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.\nAnd, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.\nThese are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.\nFor investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.  The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3581505,"gmtCreate":1613484469626,"gmtModify":1635763926480,"authorId":3565581649361282,"author":{"id":3565581649361282,"idStr":"3565581649361282","authorId":3565581649361282,"name":"RogerLew","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39451a8c1f91c27044d0e98cc2627e63","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":382246216,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[强]","text":"[强]","html":"[强]"},{"id":3620140,"gmtCreate":1613815586053,"gmtModify":1635762699631,"authorId":3568776369893575,"author":{"id":3568776369893575,"idStr":"3568776369893575","authorId":3568776369893575,"name":"MingXuan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6843a33a5048452e1f1380ec02671e9","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":382246216,"type":1,"supId":3581505,"prevId":0,"content":"hi","text":"hi","html":"hi"},{"id":3626613,"gmtCreate":1613948354222,"gmtModify":1635762432401,"authorId":3568776369893575,"author":{"id":3568776369893575,"idStr":"3568776369893575","authorId":3568776369893575,"name":"MingXuan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6843a33a5048452e1f1380ec02671e9","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":382246216,"type":1,"supId":3581505,"prevId":0,"content":"hi","text":"hi","html":"hi"},{"id":3637181,"gmtCreate":1614048880433,"gmtModify":1635762039716,"authorId":3568776369893575,"author":{"id":3568776369893575,"idStr":"3568776369893575","authorId":3568776369893575,"name":"MingXuan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6843a33a5048452e1f1380ec02671e9","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":382246216,"type":1,"supId":3581505,"prevId":0,"content":"hi","text":"hi","html":"hi"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":382246888,"gmtCreate":1613458362044,"gmtModify":1634553600320,"author":{"id":"3568776369893575","authorId":"3568776369893575","name":"MingXuan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6843a33a5048452e1f1380ec02671e9","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3568776369893575","authorIdStr":"3568776369893575"},"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382246888","repostId":1121326703,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121326703","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613456527,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121326703?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 14:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121326703","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed\nThe hottest question in Washington these days is how ","content":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed<blockquote>看看这个衡量长期失业者的指标</blockquote> The hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.<blockquote>这些天华盛顿最热门的问题是美国应该在复苏上多花多少钱，这是一个经典的数据罗夏测验。一些人盯着不断下降的失业率，认为经济正在恢复正常。其他人担心他们下降得不够快，并担心挥之不去的疤痕会损害长期增长。</blockquote> In fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market&nbsp;certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.<blockquote>事实上，两个群体都可能是对的。近期复苏看起来相当强劲，特别是如果另一项刺激计划将提高的失业救济金延长到秋季。股市当然感觉到一个辉煌的夏天即将到来。</blockquote> But as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.<blockquote>但随着公司利用冲击推出节省成本的技术，以及消费者带着新习惯走出封锁，相同的旧工作岗位将不会全部填补。这场危机将让更多的人满足于更低的工资或完全退出劳动力市场，要治愈经济创伤，需要的不仅仅是砸钱。</blockquote> As shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.<blockquote>正如新冠疫情对去年经济的冲击一样，全球同步的政策反应更令人惊讶。央行降息，财政部削减支票，寻找疫苗的惊人努力现在已经提供了几种高效的选择。</blockquote> With all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the&nbsp;European Commission&nbsp;upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the&nbsp;International Monetary Fund&nbsp;and the&nbsp;Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.<blockquote>随着所有资金在世界各地流动，我们怎么能不期待大幅反弹呢？就连欧盟委员会的预言家上周也上调了经济预测，效仿国际货币基金组织和经济合作与发展组织的同行设定的趋势。</blockquote> U.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.<blockquote>美国失业率较去年3月14.7%的峰值下降了一半以上，而家庭储蓄健康，债务较低。在政府的额外支持下，较贫困的家庭甚至报告收入略高。大公司现金充裕，银行有充足的放贷能力。随着冬去春来，美国人一打第二针就计划疯狂购物和异国旅行来控制他们的幽居病。</blockquote> Ka-BOOM!<blockquote>砰！</blockquote> Our central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the&nbsp;Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.<blockquote>我们的核心情景是今年稳步复苏，另一项刺激计划将推动经济增长高于国会预算办公室3.7%的新预测。失业率应该会从目前的6.3%下降，但这将是艰难的，因为劳动力数据中的细节显示了更令人担忧的情况。</blockquote> Specifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.<blockquote>具体来说，长期失业率（计算失业超过27周的美国人）的绝对值和占整体失业人口的百分比继续上升。在全球金融危机后刚刚开始复苏后，劳动力参与率也急剧下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b7d431bf277dd17f778f2af110445c\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"639\"><blockquote></blockquote> Many of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a&nbsp;story that stretches back to the 1960s&nbsp;when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.<blockquote>当所有这些人回到购物中心时，许多失去的工作可能会重新出现。但其中许多趋势都是一个可以追溯到20世纪60年代的故事的一部分，当时25-54岁的男性（所谓的“黄金年龄”）开始退出劳动力市场，因为包括全球竞争、技术创新和工会削弱在内的复杂力量。当危机来袭时，其中一些趋势才刚刚改善。</blockquote> Meanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand&nbsp;the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some&nbsp;80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.<blockquote>与此同时，我们才刚刚开始理解职业女性所受到的冲击。即使经济复苏已经开始，一月份离开劳动力市场的人中仍有约80%是女性。</blockquote> All recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.<blockquote>所有的衰退都会加剧就业和失业者之间的不匹配，但这次可能更糟。当危机来袭时，公司通常会增加新技术来削减运营成本。然而，这一次，大流行后新的消费者模式和偏好将进一步破坏。</blockquote> When the recovery comes, as a&nbsp;study&nbsp;by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.<blockquote>正如纽约联邦储备银行的一项研究指出的那样，当复苏到来时，新的工作岗位将不适合那些被解雇的人的技能。这并不是说空乘人员不能在在线零售商的物流中心获得陆地工作，但这很难是自动的或舒适的。</blockquote> And, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.<blockquote>而且，这不仅仅是训练的问题。如果他们的前雇主不在需求复苏时看涨期权他们重返工作岗位，那么寻找工作的时间将会更长。如果前雇主破产了，那就更难了。根据一项指标，自去年1月以来，近三分之一的小企业已经关闭。</blockquote> These are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata&nbsp;points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.<blockquote>这些都不是即使有另一个刺激方案也能轻易解决的问题。正如经济学家Marco Annunziata指出的那样，长期失业者尤其需要足够的支持，而不会削弱重返劳动力市场的动力。进步还需要对培训和教育进行投资，并且可能需要很长时间才能取得成果。</blockquote> For investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.&nbsp; The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.<blockquote>对投资者来说，“好消息”是，如果你想用看涨期权的话，这些都是长期趋势，不太可能削弱近期市场回报。坏消息是，从许多方面来看，美国的劳动力继续恶化，对长期增长产生各种影响，更不用说政治稳定了。</blockquote>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-02-16 14:22\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nWatch this measure of the long-term unemployed<blockquote>看看这个衡量长期失业者的指标</blockquote> The hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.<blockquote>这些天华盛顿最热门的问题是美国应该在复苏上多花多少钱，这是一个经典的数据罗夏测验。一些人盯着不断下降的失业率，认为经济正在恢复正常。其他人担心他们下降得不够快，并担心挥之不去的疤痕会损害长期增长。</blockquote> In fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market&nbsp;certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.<blockquote>事实上，两个群体都可能是对的。近期复苏看起来相当强劲，特别是如果另一项刺激计划将提高的失业救济金延长到秋季。股市当然感觉到一个辉煌的夏天即将到来。</blockquote> But as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.<blockquote>但随着公司利用冲击推出节省成本的技术，以及消费者带着新习惯走出封锁，相同的旧工作岗位将不会全部填补。这场危机将让更多的人满足于更低的工资或完全退出劳动力市场，要治愈经济创伤，需要的不仅仅是砸钱。</blockquote> As shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.<blockquote>正如新冠疫情对去年经济的冲击一样，全球同步的政策反应更令人惊讶。央行降息，财政部削减支票，寻找疫苗的惊人努力现在已经提供了几种高效的选择。</blockquote> With all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the&nbsp;European Commission&nbsp;upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the&nbsp;International Monetary Fund&nbsp;and the&nbsp;Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.<blockquote>随着所有资金在世界各地流动，我们怎么能不期待大幅反弹呢？就连欧盟委员会的预言家上周也上调了经济预测，效仿国际货币基金组织和经济合作与发展组织的同行设定的趋势。</blockquote> U.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.<blockquote>美国失业率较去年3月14.7%的峰值下降了一半以上，而家庭储蓄健康，债务较低。在政府的额外支持下，较贫困的家庭甚至报告收入略高。大公司现金充裕，银行有充足的放贷能力。随着冬去春来，美国人一打第二针就计划疯狂购物和异国旅行来控制他们的幽居病。</blockquote> Ka-BOOM!<blockquote>砰！</blockquote> Our central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the&nbsp;Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.<blockquote>我们的核心情景是今年稳步复苏，另一项刺激计划将推动经济增长高于国会预算办公室3.7%的新预测。失业率应该会从目前的6.3%下降，但这将是艰难的，因为劳动力数据中的细节显示了更令人担忧的情况。</blockquote> Specifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.<blockquote>具体来说，长期失业率（计算失业超过27周的美国人）的绝对值和占整体失业人口的百分比继续上升。在全球金融危机后刚刚开始复苏后，劳动力参与率也急剧下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b7d431bf277dd17f778f2af110445c\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"639\"><blockquote></blockquote> Many of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a&nbsp;story that stretches back to the 1960s&nbsp;when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.<blockquote>当所有这些人回到购物中心时，许多失去的工作可能会重新出现。但其中许多趋势都是一个可以追溯到20世纪60年代的故事的一部分，当时25-54岁的男性（所谓的“黄金年龄”）开始退出劳动力市场，因为包括全球竞争、技术创新和工会削弱在内的复杂力量。当危机来袭时，其中一些趋势才刚刚改善。</blockquote> Meanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand&nbsp;the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some&nbsp;80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.<blockquote>与此同时，我们才刚刚开始理解职业女性所受到的冲击。即使经济复苏已经开始，一月份离开劳动力市场的人中仍有约80%是女性。</blockquote> All recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.<blockquote>所有的衰退都会加剧就业和失业者之间的不匹配，但这次可能更糟。当危机来袭时，公司通常会增加新技术来削减运营成本。然而，这一次，大流行后新的消费者模式和偏好将进一步破坏。</blockquote> When the recovery comes, as a&nbsp;study&nbsp;by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.<blockquote>正如纽约联邦储备银行的一项研究指出的那样，当复苏到来时，新的工作岗位将不适合那些被解雇的人的技能。这并不是说空乘人员不能在在线零售商的物流中心获得陆地工作，但这很难是自动的或舒适的。</blockquote> And, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.<blockquote>而且，这不仅仅是训练的问题。如果他们的前雇主不在需求复苏时看涨期权他们重返工作岗位，那么寻找工作的时间将会更长。如果前雇主破产了，那就更难了。根据一项指标，自去年1月以来，近三分之一的小企业已经关闭。</blockquote> These are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata&nbsp;points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.<blockquote>这些都不是即使有另一个刺激方案也能轻易解决的问题。正如经济学家Marco Annunziata指出的那样，长期失业者尤其需要足够的支持，而不会削弱重返劳动力市场的动力。进步还需要对培训和教育进行投资，并且可能需要很长时间才能取得成果。</blockquote> For investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.&nbsp; The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.<blockquote>对投资者来说，“好消息”是，如果你想用看涨期权的话，这些都是长期趋势，不太可能削弱近期市场回报。坏消息是，从许多方面来看，美国的劳动力继续恶化，对长期增长产生各种影响，更不用说政治稳定了。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-rightly-sees-an-economic-rebound-but-is-overlooking-these-worrisome-details-11613400002?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-rightly-sees-an-economic-rebound-but-is-overlooking-these-worrisome-details-11613400002?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1121326703","content_text":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed\nThe hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.\nIn fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.\nBut as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.\nAs shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.\nWith all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the European Commission upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the International Monetary Fund and the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.\nU.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.\nKa-BOOM!\nOur central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.\nSpecifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.\n\nMany of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a story that stretches back to the 1960s when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.\nMeanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some 80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.\nAll recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.\nWhen the recovery comes, as a study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.\nAnd, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.\nThese are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.\nFor investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.  The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":382257914,"gmtCreate":1613457028838,"gmtModify":1631890607469,"author":{"id":"3571450871303523","authorId":"3571450871303523","name":"AhPohPoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b36202405995eaf4d3e37dcb3d06586","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3571450871303523","authorIdStr":"3571450871303523"},"htmlText":"PLEASE HELP ME TO LIKE MY COMMENT","listText":"PLEASE HELP ME TO LIKE MY COMMENT","text":"PLEASE HELP ME TO LIKE MY COMMENT","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":33,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382257914","repostId":1121326703,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121326703","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613456527,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121326703?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 14:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121326703","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed\nThe hottest question in Washington these days is how ","content":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed<blockquote>看看这个衡量长期失业者的指标</blockquote> The hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.<blockquote>这些天华盛顿最热门的问题是美国应该在复苏上多花多少钱，这是一个经典的数据罗夏测验。一些人盯着不断下降的失业率，认为经济正在恢复正常。其他人担心他们下降得不够快，并担心挥之不去的疤痕会损害长期增长。</blockquote> In fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market&nbsp;certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.<blockquote>事实上，两个群体都可能是对的。近期复苏看起来相当强劲，特别是如果另一项刺激计划将提高的失业救济金延长到秋季。股市当然感觉到一个辉煌的夏天即将到来。</blockquote> But as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.<blockquote>但随着公司利用冲击推出节省成本的技术，以及消费者带着新习惯走出封锁，相同的旧工作岗位将不会全部填补。这场危机将让更多的人满足于更低的工资或完全退出劳动力市场，要治愈经济创伤，需要的不仅仅是砸钱。</blockquote> As shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.<blockquote>正如新冠疫情对去年经济的冲击一样，全球同步的政策反应更令人惊讶。央行降息，财政部削减支票，寻找疫苗的惊人努力现在已经提供了几种高效的选择。</blockquote> With all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the&nbsp;European Commission&nbsp;upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the&nbsp;International Monetary Fund&nbsp;and the&nbsp;Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.<blockquote>随着所有资金在世界各地流动，我们怎么能不期待大幅反弹呢？就连欧盟委员会的预言家上周也上调了经济预测，效仿国际货币基金组织和经济合作与发展组织的同行设定的趋势。</blockquote> U.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.<blockquote>美国失业率较去年3月14.7%的峰值下降了一半以上，而家庭储蓄健康，债务较低。在政府的额外支持下，较贫困的家庭甚至报告收入略高。大公司现金充裕，银行有充足的放贷能力。随着冬去春来，美国人一打第二针就计划疯狂购物和异国旅行来控制他们的幽居病。</blockquote> Ka-BOOM!<blockquote>砰！</blockquote> Our central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the&nbsp;Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.<blockquote>我们的核心情景是今年稳步复苏，另一项刺激计划将推动经济增长高于国会预算办公室3.7%的新预测。失业率应该会从目前的6.3%下降，但这将是艰难的，因为劳动力数据中的细节显示了更令人担忧的情况。</blockquote> Specifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.<blockquote>具体来说，长期失业率（计算失业超过27周的美国人）的绝对值和占整体失业人口的百分比继续上升。在全球金融危机后刚刚开始复苏后，劳动力参与率也急剧下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b7d431bf277dd17f778f2af110445c\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"639\"><blockquote></blockquote> Many of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a&nbsp;story that stretches back to the 1960s&nbsp;when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.<blockquote>当所有这些人回到购物中心时，许多失去的工作可能会重新出现。但其中许多趋势都是一个可以追溯到20世纪60年代的故事的一部分，当时25-54岁的男性（所谓的“黄金年龄”）开始退出劳动力市场，因为包括全球竞争、技术创新和工会削弱在内的复杂力量。当危机来袭时，其中一些趋势才刚刚改善。</blockquote> Meanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand&nbsp;the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some&nbsp;80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.<blockquote>与此同时，我们才刚刚开始理解职业女性所受到的冲击。即使经济复苏已经开始，一月份离开劳动力市场的人中仍有约80%是女性。</blockquote> All recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.<blockquote>所有的衰退都会加剧就业和失业者之间的不匹配，但这次可能更糟。当危机来袭时，公司通常会增加新技术来削减运营成本。然而，这一次，大流行后新的消费者模式和偏好将进一步破坏。</blockquote> When the recovery comes, as a&nbsp;study&nbsp;by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.<blockquote>正如纽约联邦储备银行的一项研究指出的那样，当复苏到来时，新的工作岗位将不适合那些被解雇的人的技能。这并不是说空乘人员不能在在线零售商的物流中心获得陆地工作，但这很难是自动的或舒适的。</blockquote> And, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.<blockquote>而且，这不仅仅是训练的问题。如果他们的前雇主不在需求复苏时看涨期权他们重返工作岗位，那么寻找工作的时间将会更长。如果前雇主破产了，那就更难了。根据一项指标，自去年1月以来，近三分之一的小企业已经关闭。</blockquote> These are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata&nbsp;points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.<blockquote>这些都不是即使有另一个刺激方案也能轻易解决的问题。正如经济学家Marco Annunziata指出的那样，长期失业者尤其需要足够的支持，而不会削弱重返劳动力市场的动力。进步还需要对培训和教育进行投资，并且可能需要很长时间才能取得成果。</blockquote> For investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.&nbsp; The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.<blockquote>对投资者来说，“好消息”是，如果你想用看涨期权的话，这些都是长期趋势，不太可能削弱近期市场回报。坏消息是，从许多方面来看，美国的劳动力继续恶化，对长期增长产生各种影响，更不用说政治稳定了。</blockquote>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-02-16 14:22\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nWatch this measure of the long-term unemployed<blockquote>看看这个衡量长期失业者的指标</blockquote> The hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.<blockquote>这些天华盛顿最热门的问题是美国应该在复苏上多花多少钱，这是一个经典的数据罗夏测验。一些人盯着不断下降的失业率，认为经济正在恢复正常。其他人担心他们下降得不够快，并担心挥之不去的疤痕会损害长期增长。</blockquote> In fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market&nbsp;certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.<blockquote>事实上，两个群体都可能是对的。近期复苏看起来相当强劲，特别是如果另一项刺激计划将提高的失业救济金延长到秋季。股市当然感觉到一个辉煌的夏天即将到来。</blockquote> But as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.<blockquote>但随着公司利用冲击推出节省成本的技术，以及消费者带着新习惯走出封锁，相同的旧工作岗位将不会全部填补。这场危机将让更多的人满足于更低的工资或完全退出劳动力市场，要治愈经济创伤，需要的不仅仅是砸钱。</blockquote> As shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.<blockquote>正如新冠疫情对去年经济的冲击一样，全球同步的政策反应更令人惊讶。央行降息，财政部削减支票，寻找疫苗的惊人努力现在已经提供了几种高效的选择。</blockquote> With all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the&nbsp;European Commission&nbsp;upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the&nbsp;International Monetary Fund&nbsp;and the&nbsp;Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.<blockquote>随着所有资金在世界各地流动，我们怎么能不期待大幅反弹呢？就连欧盟委员会的预言家上周也上调了经济预测，效仿国际货币基金组织和经济合作与发展组织的同行设定的趋势。</blockquote> U.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.<blockquote>美国失业率较去年3月14.7%的峰值下降了一半以上，而家庭储蓄健康，债务较低。在政府的额外支持下，较贫困的家庭甚至报告收入略高。大公司现金充裕，银行有充足的放贷能力。随着冬去春来，美国人一打第二针就计划疯狂购物和异国旅行来控制他们的幽居病。</blockquote> Ka-BOOM!<blockquote>砰！</blockquote> Our central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the&nbsp;Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.<blockquote>我们的核心情景是今年稳步复苏，另一项刺激计划将推动经济增长高于国会预算办公室3.7%的新预测。失业率应该会从目前的6.3%下降，但这将是艰难的，因为劳动力数据中的细节显示了更令人担忧的情况。</blockquote> Specifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.<blockquote>具体来说，长期失业率（计算失业超过27周的美国人）的绝对值和占整体失业人口的百分比继续上升。在全球金融危机后刚刚开始复苏后，劳动力参与率也急剧下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b7d431bf277dd17f778f2af110445c\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"639\"><blockquote></blockquote> Many of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a&nbsp;story that stretches back to the 1960s&nbsp;when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.<blockquote>当所有这些人回到购物中心时，许多失去的工作可能会重新出现。但其中许多趋势都是一个可以追溯到20世纪60年代的故事的一部分，当时25-54岁的男性（所谓的“黄金年龄”）开始退出劳动力市场，因为包括全球竞争、技术创新和工会削弱在内的复杂力量。当危机来袭时，其中一些趋势才刚刚改善。</blockquote> Meanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand&nbsp;the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some&nbsp;80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.<blockquote>与此同时，我们才刚刚开始理解职业女性所受到的冲击。即使经济复苏已经开始，一月份离开劳动力市场的人中仍有约80%是女性。</blockquote> All recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.<blockquote>所有的衰退都会加剧就业和失业者之间的不匹配，但这次可能更糟。当危机来袭时，公司通常会增加新技术来削减运营成本。然而，这一次，大流行后新的消费者模式和偏好将进一步破坏。</blockquote> When the recovery comes, as a&nbsp;study&nbsp;by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.<blockquote>正如纽约联邦储备银行的一项研究指出的那样，当复苏到来时，新的工作岗位将不适合那些被解雇的人的技能。这并不是说空乘人员不能在在线零售商的物流中心获得陆地工作，但这很难是自动的或舒适的。</blockquote> And, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.<blockquote>而且，这不仅仅是训练的问题。如果他们的前雇主不在需求复苏时看涨期权他们重返工作岗位，那么寻找工作的时间将会更长。如果前雇主破产了，那就更难了。根据一项指标，自去年1月以来，近三分之一的小企业已经关闭。</blockquote> These are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata&nbsp;points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.<blockquote>这些都不是即使有另一个刺激方案也能轻易解决的问题。正如经济学家Marco Annunziata指出的那样，长期失业者尤其需要足够的支持，而不会削弱重返劳动力市场的动力。进步还需要对培训和教育进行投资，并且可能需要很长时间才能取得成果。</blockquote> For investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.&nbsp; The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.<blockquote>对投资者来说，“好消息”是，如果你想用看涨期权的话，这些都是长期趋势，不太可能削弱近期市场回报。坏消息是，从许多方面来看，美国的劳动力继续恶化，对长期增长产生各种影响，更不用说政治稳定了。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-rightly-sees-an-economic-rebound-but-is-overlooking-these-worrisome-details-11613400002?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-rightly-sees-an-economic-rebound-but-is-overlooking-these-worrisome-details-11613400002?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1121326703","content_text":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed\nThe hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.\nIn fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.\nBut as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.\nAs shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.\nWith all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the European Commission upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the International Monetary Fund and the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.\nU.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.\nKa-BOOM!\nOur central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.\nSpecifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.\n\nMany of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a story that stretches back to the 1960s when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.\nMeanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some 80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.\nAll recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.\nWhen the recovery comes, as a study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.\nAnd, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.\nThese are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.\nFor investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.  The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3578254,"gmtCreate":1613457047364,"gmtModify":1635764041756,"authorId":3571450871303523,"author":{"id":3571450871303523,"idStr":"3571450871303523","authorId":3571450871303523,"name":"AhPohPoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b36202405995eaf4d3e37dcb3d06586","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":382257914,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"PLEASE HELP ME TO LIKE THIS COMMENT ","text":"PLEASE HELP ME TO LIKE THIS COMMENT ","html":"PLEASE HELP ME TO LIKE THIS COMMENT 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"},{"id":3578263,"gmtCreate":1613457155748,"gmtModify":1635764041209,"authorId":3571450871303523,"author":{"id":3571450871303523,"idStr":"3571450871303523","authorId":3571450871303523,"name":"AhPohPoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b36202405995eaf4d3e37dcb3d06586","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":3571450871303523,"repliedAuthor":{"id":3571450871303523,"idStr":"3571450871303523","authorId":3571450871303523,"name":"AhPohPoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b36202405995eaf4d3e37dcb3d06586","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"objectId":382257914,"type":1,"supId":3578254,"prevId":3578257,"content":"Hi ","text":"Hi ","html":"Hi "}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":382254489,"gmtCreate":1613456977441,"gmtModify":1634553603747,"author":{"id":"3559646996357772","authorId":"3559646996357772","name":"小熊家族","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a5653b8f67e7f6deae6e1f8cef74bd0","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3559646996357772","authorIdStr":"3559646996357772"},"htmlText":"&nbsp;The reboubd is due to the covid19 is over?","listText":"&nbsp;The reboubd is due to the covid19 is over?","text":"The reboubd is due to the covid19 is over?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382254489","repostId":1121326703,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121326703","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613456527,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121326703?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 14:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121326703","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed\nThe hottest question in Washington these days is how ","content":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed<blockquote>看看这个衡量长期失业者的指标</blockquote> The hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.<blockquote>这些天华盛顿最热门的问题是美国应该在复苏上多花多少钱，这是一个经典的数据罗夏测验。一些人盯着不断下降的失业率，认为经济正在恢复正常。其他人担心他们下降得不够快，并担心挥之不去的疤痕会损害长期增长。</blockquote> In fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market&nbsp;certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.<blockquote>事实上，两个群体都可能是对的。近期复苏看起来相当强劲，特别是如果另一项刺激计划将提高的失业救济金延长到秋季。股市当然感觉到一个辉煌的夏天即将到来。</blockquote> But as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.<blockquote>但随着公司利用冲击推出节省成本的技术，以及消费者带着新习惯走出封锁，相同的旧工作岗位将不会全部填补。这场危机将让更多的人满足于更低的工资或完全退出劳动力市场，要治愈经济创伤，需要的不仅仅是砸钱。</blockquote> As shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.<blockquote>正如新冠疫情对去年经济的冲击一样，全球同步的政策反应更令人惊讶。央行降息，财政部削减支票，寻找疫苗的惊人努力现在已经提供了几种高效的选择。</blockquote> With all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the&nbsp;European Commission&nbsp;upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the&nbsp;International Monetary Fund&nbsp;and the&nbsp;Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.<blockquote>随着所有资金在世界各地流动，我们怎么能不期待大幅反弹呢？就连欧盟委员会的预言家上周也上调了经济预测，效仿国际货币基金组织和经济合作与发展组织的同行设定的趋势。</blockquote> U.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.<blockquote>美国失业率较去年3月14.7%的峰值下降了一半以上，而家庭储蓄健康，债务较低。在政府的额外支持下，较贫困的家庭甚至报告收入略高。大公司现金充裕，银行有充足的放贷能力。随着冬去春来，美国人一打第二针就计划疯狂购物和异国旅行来控制他们的幽居病。</blockquote> Ka-BOOM!<blockquote>砰！</blockquote> Our central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the&nbsp;Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.<blockquote>我们的核心情景是今年稳步复苏，另一项刺激计划将推动经济增长高于国会预算办公室3.7%的新预测。失业率应该会从目前的6.3%下降，但这将是艰难的，因为劳动力数据中的细节显示了更令人担忧的情况。</blockquote> Specifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.<blockquote>具体来说，长期失业率（计算失业超过27周的美国人）的绝对值和占整体失业人口的百分比继续上升。在全球金融危机后刚刚开始复苏后，劳动力参与率也急剧下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b7d431bf277dd17f778f2af110445c\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"639\"><blockquote></blockquote> Many of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a&nbsp;story that stretches back to the 1960s&nbsp;when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.<blockquote>当所有这些人回到购物中心时，许多失去的工作可能会重新出现。但其中许多趋势都是一个可以追溯到20世纪60年代的故事的一部分，当时25-54岁的男性（所谓的“黄金年龄”）开始退出劳动力市场，因为包括全球竞争、技术创新和工会削弱在内的复杂力量。当危机来袭时，其中一些趋势才刚刚改善。</blockquote> Meanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand&nbsp;the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some&nbsp;80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.<blockquote>与此同时，我们才刚刚开始理解职业女性所受到的冲击。即使经济复苏已经开始，一月份离开劳动力市场的人中仍有约80%是女性。</blockquote> All recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.<blockquote>所有的衰退都会加剧就业和失业者之间的不匹配，但这次可能更糟。当危机来袭时，公司通常会增加新技术来削减运营成本。然而，这一次，大流行后新的消费者模式和偏好将进一步破坏。</blockquote> When the recovery comes, as a&nbsp;study&nbsp;by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.<blockquote>正如纽约联邦储备银行的一项研究指出的那样，当复苏到来时，新的工作岗位将不适合那些被解雇的人的技能。这并不是说空乘人员不能在在线零售商的物流中心获得陆地工作，但这很难是自动的或舒适的。</blockquote> And, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.<blockquote>而且，这不仅仅是训练的问题。如果他们的前雇主不在需求复苏时看涨期权他们重返工作岗位，那么寻找工作的时间将会更长。如果前雇主破产了，那就更难了。根据一项指标，自去年1月以来，近三分之一的小企业已经关闭。</blockquote> These are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata&nbsp;points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.<blockquote>这些都不是即使有另一个刺激方案也能轻易解决的问题。正如经济学家Marco Annunziata指出的那样，长期失业者尤其需要足够的支持，而不会削弱重返劳动力市场的动力。进步还需要对培训和教育进行投资，并且可能需要很长时间才能取得成果。</blockquote> For investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.&nbsp; The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.<blockquote>对投资者来说，“好消息”是，如果你想用看涨期权的话，这些都是长期趋势，不太可能削弱近期市场回报。坏消息是，从许多方面来看，美国的劳动力继续恶化，对长期增长产生各种影响，更不用说政治稳定了。</blockquote>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-02-16 14:22\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nWatch this measure of the long-term unemployed<blockquote>看看这个衡量长期失业者的指标</blockquote> The hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.<blockquote>这些天华盛顿最热门的问题是美国应该在复苏上多花多少钱，这是一个经典的数据罗夏测验。一些人盯着不断下降的失业率，认为经济正在恢复正常。其他人担心他们下降得不够快，并担心挥之不去的疤痕会损害长期增长。</blockquote> In fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market&nbsp;certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.<blockquote>事实上，两个群体都可能是对的。近期复苏看起来相当强劲，特别是如果另一项刺激计划将提高的失业救济金延长到秋季。股市当然感觉到一个辉煌的夏天即将到来。</blockquote> But as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.<blockquote>但随着公司利用冲击推出节省成本的技术，以及消费者带着新习惯走出封锁，相同的旧工作岗位将不会全部填补。这场危机将让更多的人满足于更低的工资或完全退出劳动力市场，要治愈经济创伤，需要的不仅仅是砸钱。</blockquote> As shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.<blockquote>正如新冠疫情对去年经济的冲击一样，全球同步的政策反应更令人惊讶。央行降息，财政部削减支票，寻找疫苗的惊人努力现在已经提供了几种高效的选择。</blockquote> With all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the&nbsp;European Commission&nbsp;upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the&nbsp;International Monetary Fund&nbsp;and the&nbsp;Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.<blockquote>随着所有资金在世界各地流动，我们怎么能不期待大幅反弹呢？就连欧盟委员会的预言家上周也上调了经济预测，效仿国际货币基金组织和经济合作与发展组织的同行设定的趋势。</blockquote> U.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.<blockquote>美国失业率较去年3月14.7%的峰值下降了一半以上，而家庭储蓄健康，债务较低。在政府的额外支持下，较贫困的家庭甚至报告收入略高。大公司现金充裕，银行有充足的放贷能力。随着冬去春来，美国人一打第二针就计划疯狂购物和异国旅行来控制他们的幽居病。</blockquote> Ka-BOOM!<blockquote>砰！</blockquote> Our central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the&nbsp;Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.<blockquote>我们的核心情景是今年稳步复苏，另一项刺激计划将推动经济增长高于国会预算办公室3.7%的新预测。失业率应该会从目前的6.3%下降，但这将是艰难的，因为劳动力数据中的细节显示了更令人担忧的情况。</blockquote> Specifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.<blockquote>具体来说，长期失业率（计算失业超过27周的美国人）的绝对值和占整体失业人口的百分比继续上升。在全球金融危机后刚刚开始复苏后，劳动力参与率也急剧下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b7d431bf277dd17f778f2af110445c\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"639\"><blockquote></blockquote> Many of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a&nbsp;story that stretches back to the 1960s&nbsp;when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.<blockquote>当所有这些人回到购物中心时，许多失去的工作可能会重新出现。但其中许多趋势都是一个可以追溯到20世纪60年代的故事的一部分，当时25-54岁的男性（所谓的“黄金年龄”）开始退出劳动力市场，因为包括全球竞争、技术创新和工会削弱在内的复杂力量。当危机来袭时，其中一些趋势才刚刚改善。</blockquote> Meanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand&nbsp;the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some&nbsp;80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.<blockquote>与此同时，我们才刚刚开始理解职业女性所受到的冲击。即使经济复苏已经开始，一月份离开劳动力市场的人中仍有约80%是女性。</blockquote> All recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.<blockquote>所有的衰退都会加剧就业和失业者之间的不匹配，但这次可能更糟。当危机来袭时，公司通常会增加新技术来削减运营成本。然而，这一次，大流行后新的消费者模式和偏好将进一步破坏。</blockquote> When the recovery comes, as a&nbsp;study&nbsp;by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.<blockquote>正如纽约联邦储备银行的一项研究指出的那样，当复苏到来时，新的工作岗位将不适合那些被解雇的人的技能。这并不是说空乘人员不能在在线零售商的物流中心获得陆地工作，但这很难是自动的或舒适的。</blockquote> And, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.<blockquote>而且，这不仅仅是训练的问题。如果他们的前雇主不在需求复苏时看涨期权他们重返工作岗位，那么寻找工作的时间将会更长。如果前雇主破产了，那就更难了。根据一项指标，自去年1月以来，近三分之一的小企业已经关闭。</blockquote> These are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata&nbsp;points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.<blockquote>这些都不是即使有另一个刺激方案也能轻易解决的问题。正如经济学家Marco Annunziata指出的那样，长期失业者尤其需要足够的支持，而不会削弱重返劳动力市场的动力。进步还需要对培训和教育进行投资，并且可能需要很长时间才能取得成果。</blockquote> For investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.&nbsp; The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.<blockquote>对投资者来说，“好消息”是，如果你想用看涨期权的话，这些都是长期趋势，不太可能削弱近期市场回报。坏消息是，从许多方面来看，美国的劳动力继续恶化，对长期增长产生各种影响，更不用说政治稳定了。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-rightly-sees-an-economic-rebound-but-is-overlooking-these-worrisome-details-11613400002?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-rightly-sees-an-economic-rebound-but-is-overlooking-these-worrisome-details-11613400002?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1121326703","content_text":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed\nThe hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.\nIn fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.\nBut as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.\nAs shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.\nWith all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the European Commission upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the International Monetary Fund and the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.\nU.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.\nKa-BOOM!\nOur central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.\nSpecifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.\n\nMany of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a story that stretches back to the 1960s when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.\nMeanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some 80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.\nAll recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.\nWhen the recovery comes, as a study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.\nAnd, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.\nThese are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.\nFor investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.  The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":382255183,"gmtCreate":1613456784842,"gmtModify":1634553604416,"author":{"id":"3555067011639600","authorId":"3555067011639600","name":"TraderJo98","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b2fb6c4a2935a517c3b7b2963f0308e","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3555067011639600","authorIdStr":"3555067011639600"},"htmlText":"Indeed","listText":"Indeed","text":"Indeed","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382255183","repostId":1121326703,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121326703","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613456527,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121326703?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 14:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121326703","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed\nThe hottest question in Washington these days is how ","content":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed<blockquote>看看这个衡量长期失业者的指标</blockquote> The hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.<blockquote>这些天华盛顿最热门的问题是美国应该在复苏上多花多少钱，这是一个经典的数据罗夏测验。一些人盯着不断下降的失业率，认为经济正在恢复正常。其他人担心他们下降得不够快，并担心挥之不去的疤痕会损害长期增长。</blockquote> In fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market&nbsp;certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.<blockquote>事实上，两个群体都可能是对的。近期复苏看起来相当强劲，特别是如果另一项刺激计划将提高的失业救济金延长到秋季。股市当然感觉到一个辉煌的夏天即将到来。</blockquote> But as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.<blockquote>但随着公司利用冲击推出节省成本的技术，以及消费者带着新习惯走出封锁，相同的旧工作岗位将不会全部填补。这场危机将让更多的人满足于更低的工资或完全退出劳动力市场，要治愈经济创伤，需要的不仅仅是砸钱。</blockquote> As shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.<blockquote>正如新冠疫情对去年经济的冲击一样，全球同步的政策反应更令人惊讶。央行降息，财政部削减支票，寻找疫苗的惊人努力现在已经提供了几种高效的选择。</blockquote> With all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the&nbsp;European Commission&nbsp;upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the&nbsp;International Monetary Fund&nbsp;and the&nbsp;Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.<blockquote>随着所有资金在世界各地流动，我们怎么能不期待大幅反弹呢？就连欧盟委员会的预言家上周也上调了经济预测，效仿国际货币基金组织和经济合作与发展组织的同行设定的趋势。</blockquote> U.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.<blockquote>美国失业率较去年3月14.7%的峰值下降了一半以上，而家庭储蓄健康，债务较低。在政府的额外支持下，较贫困的家庭甚至报告收入略高。大公司现金充裕，银行有充足的放贷能力。随着冬去春来，美国人一打第二针就计划疯狂购物和异国旅行来控制他们的幽居病。</blockquote> Ka-BOOM!<blockquote>砰！</blockquote> Our central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the&nbsp;Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.<blockquote>我们的核心情景是今年稳步复苏，另一项刺激计划将推动经济增长高于国会预算办公室3.7%的新预测。失业率应该会从目前的6.3%下降，但这将是艰难的，因为劳动力数据中的细节显示了更令人担忧的情况。</blockquote> Specifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.<blockquote>具体来说，长期失业率（计算失业超过27周的美国人）的绝对值和占整体失业人口的百分比继续上升。在全球金融危机后刚刚开始复苏后，劳动力参与率也急剧下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b7d431bf277dd17f778f2af110445c\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"639\"><blockquote></blockquote> Many of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a&nbsp;story that stretches back to the 1960s&nbsp;when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.<blockquote>当所有这些人回到购物中心时，许多失去的工作可能会重新出现。但其中许多趋势都是一个可以追溯到20世纪60年代的故事的一部分，当时25-54岁的男性（所谓的“黄金年龄”）开始退出劳动力市场，因为包括全球竞争、技术创新和工会削弱在内的复杂力量。当危机来袭时，其中一些趋势才刚刚改善。</blockquote> Meanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand&nbsp;the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some&nbsp;80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.<blockquote>与此同时，我们才刚刚开始理解职业女性所受到的冲击。即使经济复苏已经开始，一月份离开劳动力市场的人中仍有约80%是女性。</blockquote> All recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.<blockquote>所有的衰退都会加剧就业和失业者之间的不匹配，但这次可能更糟。当危机来袭时，公司通常会增加新技术来削减运营成本。然而，这一次，大流行后新的消费者模式和偏好将进一步破坏。</blockquote> When the recovery comes, as a&nbsp;study&nbsp;by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.<blockquote>正如纽约联邦储备银行的一项研究指出的那样，当复苏到来时，新的工作岗位将不适合那些被解雇的人的技能。这并不是说空乘人员不能在在线零售商的物流中心获得陆地工作，但这很难是自动的或舒适的。</blockquote> And, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.<blockquote>而且，这不仅仅是训练的问题。如果他们的前雇主不在需求复苏时看涨期权他们重返工作岗位，那么寻找工作的时间将会更长。如果前雇主破产了，那就更难了。根据一项指标，自去年1月以来，近三分之一的小企业已经关闭。</blockquote> These are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata&nbsp;points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.<blockquote>这些都不是即使有另一个刺激方案也能轻易解决的问题。正如经济学家Marco Annunziata指出的那样，长期失业者尤其需要足够的支持，而不会削弱重返劳动力市场的动力。进步还需要对培训和教育进行投资，并且可能需要很长时间才能取得成果。</blockquote> For investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.&nbsp; The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.<blockquote>对投资者来说，“好消息”是，如果你想用看涨期权的话，这些都是长期趋势，不太可能削弱近期市场回报。坏消息是，从许多方面来看，美国的劳动力继续恶化，对长期增长产生各种影响，更不用说政治稳定了。</blockquote>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但却忽视了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-02-16 14:22\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nWatch this measure of the long-term unemployed<blockquote>看看这个衡量长期失业者的指标</blockquote> The hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.<blockquote>这些天华盛顿最热门的问题是美国应该在复苏上多花多少钱，这是一个经典的数据罗夏测验。一些人盯着不断下降的失业率，认为经济正在恢复正常。其他人担心他们下降得不够快，并担心挥之不去的疤痕会损害长期增长。</blockquote> In fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market&nbsp;certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.<blockquote>事实上，两个群体都可能是对的。近期复苏看起来相当强劲，特别是如果另一项刺激计划将提高的失业救济金延长到秋季。股市当然感觉到一个辉煌的夏天即将到来。</blockquote> But as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.<blockquote>但随着公司利用冲击推出节省成本的技术，以及消费者带着新习惯走出封锁，相同的旧工作岗位将不会全部填补。这场危机将让更多的人满足于更低的工资或完全退出劳动力市场，要治愈经济创伤，需要的不仅仅是砸钱。</blockquote> As shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.<blockquote>正如新冠疫情对去年经济的冲击一样，全球同步的政策反应更令人惊讶。央行降息，财政部削减支票，寻找疫苗的惊人努力现在已经提供了几种高效的选择。</blockquote> With all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the&nbsp;European Commission&nbsp;upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the&nbsp;International Monetary Fund&nbsp;and the&nbsp;Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.<blockquote>随着所有资金在世界各地流动，我们怎么能不期待大幅反弹呢？就连欧盟委员会的预言家上周也上调了经济预测，效仿国际货币基金组织和经济合作与发展组织的同行设定的趋势。</blockquote> U.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.<blockquote>美国失业率较去年3月14.7%的峰值下降了一半以上，而家庭储蓄健康，债务较低。在政府的额外支持下，较贫困的家庭甚至报告收入略高。大公司现金充裕，银行有充足的放贷能力。随着冬去春来，美国人一打第二针就计划疯狂购物和异国旅行来控制他们的幽居病。</blockquote> Ka-BOOM!<blockquote>砰！</blockquote> Our central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the&nbsp;Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.<blockquote>我们的核心情景是今年稳步复苏，另一项刺激计划将推动经济增长高于国会预算办公室3.7%的新预测。失业率应该会从目前的6.3%下降，但这将是艰难的，因为劳动力数据中的细节显示了更令人担忧的情况。</blockquote> Specifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.<blockquote>具体来说，长期失业率（计算失业超过27周的美国人）的绝对值和占整体失业人口的百分比继续上升。在全球金融危机后刚刚开始复苏后，劳动力参与率也急剧下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b7d431bf277dd17f778f2af110445c\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"639\"><blockquote></blockquote> Many of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a&nbsp;story that stretches back to the 1960s&nbsp;when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.<blockquote>当所有这些人回到购物中心时，许多失去的工作可能会重新出现。但其中许多趋势都是一个可以追溯到20世纪60年代的故事的一部分，当时25-54岁的男性（所谓的“黄金年龄”）开始退出劳动力市场，因为包括全球竞争、技术创新和工会削弱在内的复杂力量。当危机来袭时，其中一些趋势才刚刚改善。</blockquote> Meanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand&nbsp;the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some&nbsp;80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.<blockquote>与此同时，我们才刚刚开始理解职业女性所受到的冲击。即使经济复苏已经开始，一月份离开劳动力市场的人中仍有约80%是女性。</blockquote> All recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.<blockquote>所有的衰退都会加剧就业和失业者之间的不匹配，但这次可能更糟。当危机来袭时，公司通常会增加新技术来削减运营成本。然而，这一次，大流行后新的消费者模式和偏好将进一步破坏。</blockquote> When the recovery comes, as a&nbsp;study&nbsp;by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.<blockquote>正如纽约联邦储备银行的一项研究指出的那样，当复苏到来时，新的工作岗位将不适合那些被解雇的人的技能。这并不是说空乘人员不能在在线零售商的物流中心获得陆地工作，但这很难是自动的或舒适的。</blockquote> And, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.<blockquote>而且，这不仅仅是训练的问题。如果他们的前雇主不在需求复苏时看涨期权他们重返工作岗位，那么寻找工作的时间将会更长。如果前雇主破产了，那就更难了。根据一项指标，自去年1月以来，近三分之一的小企业已经关闭。</blockquote> These are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata&nbsp;points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.<blockquote>这些都不是即使有另一个刺激方案也能轻易解决的问题。正如经济学家Marco Annunziata指出的那样，长期失业者尤其需要足够的支持，而不会削弱重返劳动力市场的动力。进步还需要对培训和教育进行投资，并且可能需要很长时间才能取得成果。</blockquote> For investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.&nbsp; The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.<blockquote>对投资者来说，“好消息”是，如果你想用看涨期权的话，这些都是长期趋势，不太可能削弱近期市场回报。坏消息是，从许多方面来看，美国的劳动力继续恶化，对长期增长产生各种影响，更不用说政治稳定了。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-rightly-sees-an-economic-rebound-but-is-overlooking-these-worrisome-details-11613400002?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-rightly-sees-an-economic-rebound-but-is-overlooking-these-worrisome-details-11613400002?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1121326703","content_text":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed\nThe hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.\nIn fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.\nBut as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.\nAs shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.\nWith all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the European Commission upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the International Monetary Fund and the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.\nU.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.\nKa-BOOM!\nOur central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.\nSpecifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.\n\nMany of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a story that stretches back to the 1960s when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.\nMeanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some 80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.\nAll recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.\nWhen the recovery comes, as a study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.\nAnd, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.\nThese are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.\nFor investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.  The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":40,"commentSize":14,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}