今晚很恐怖？美元“坠崖式”下跌！更大噩耗还在后面 _老虎社区_美港股上老虎

今晚很恐怖？美元“坠崖式”下跌！更大噩耗还在后面

中金在线外汇网2020-05-01

今日是五一国际劳动节，包括中国、韩国和多数欧洲国家的金融市场都将迎来假期休市。而在刚刚过去的4月最后一个交易日，无论是外汇、贵金属还是原油市场，都走出了颇为剧烈的行情波动走势。有意思的是，最终的强弱对比颇为令人感到意外——美元和黄金这对“老冤家”在联袂大跌。而今晚，还有更大风险。 1、黄金美元联袂大跌，发生了什么周五（5月1日），美元指数基本于隔夜低点98.82略上方窄幅挣扎整理。此前，美元周四...

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韭菜收割机PRO
·2020-05-06
吓死我了，赶紧换点美元压压惊
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猛逃
·2020-05-03
说说你对这篇新闻的看法...
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Danr
·2020-05-02
好好搬砖操心
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1
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-05-02
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小草莓味
·2020-05-02
人民币玩家
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顶雷
·2020-05-02
要么你就死！活着就得卖命！有本事你死一个让我看看！我豁出去了！一起死！看谁怕谁！
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顶雷
·2020-05-02
别让我逮住你！逮住你把你攥出尿来！
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mono
·2020-05-01
题目也太危言耸听了吧
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2
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- Rai:
  老标题党了
  2020-05-02
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皮特斯拉丁比伯
·2020-05-01
恐慌个鸡儿熔断都不怕区区大盘跌2个点会看在眼里？
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星小星
·2020-05-01
哪里恐慌了……稳的狠
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Asir
·2020-05-01
说说你对这篇新闻的看法...
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66z
·2020-05-01
人民币才是跳崖吧
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- 浓情恺子:
  购买力下降的一塌糊涂
  2020-05-01
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- 真的英雄:
  挺好的
  2020-05-01
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Dollar \"Falling Cliff\" Fall! 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come.","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bd079724ab833ae824bcad59a077741","symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"今日是五一国际劳动节，包括中国、韩国和多数欧洲国家的金融市场都将迎来假期休市。而在刚刚过去的4月最后一个交易日，无论是外汇、贵金属还是原油市场，都走出了颇为剧烈的行情波动走势。有意思的是，最终的强弱对比颇为令人感到意外——美元和黄金这对“老冤家”在联袂大跌。而今晚，还有更大风险。\n1、黄金美元联袂大跌，发生了什么\n周五（5月1日），美元指数基本于隔夜低点98.82略上方窄幅挣扎整理。此前，美元周四(4月30日)在震荡交投中下跌，因投资者在月底重新平衡投资组合。行情数据显示，纽约盘中美元。指数一度跌穿99关口\n\n而国际现货黄金则在上一交易日几乎垂直暴跌后日内再度加速下挫，稍早一度跌至1670.30美元/盎司低点，自日高下跌20美元，而目前自低点有所反弹，日内跌幅缩窄至0.5%。\n消息面上，上周又有数百万美国人首次申请失业救济，使新冠封锁措施实施六周来的累计申请人数超过3000万人。\n\n美国劳工部周四公布的数据显示，截至4月25日一周首次申请失业救济人数为384万，之前一周为444万。分析师预估中值为350万。不过，尽管申请人数仍保持在这场危机发生前从未见过的水平，但连续第四周呈现放缓态势，表明劳动力市场受到的打击可能已经见顶。\n此外，周四晚间欧央行公布利率决议，维持三大关键利率不变，确认7500亿欧元的紧急抗疫购债计划（PEPP）规模，每月固定购债200亿欧元。欧央行表示，紧急抗疫购债计划将持续至2020年底。\n欧洲央行行长拉加德表示，最新的数据显示了前所未有的经济下滑，欧元区面临着前所未有规模和速度的衰退，经济活动大面积停止，欧元区经济今年可能收缩5%-12%，经济复苏的速度不明确。\n除了美国，欧元区国家的经济状况也不乐观，周四午后相继公布了一系列重要经济数据，欧元区主要经济体一季度GDP纷纷跌至负数，失业人数飙升：\n法国第一季度GDP年率初值录得-5.4%，为录得二战以来最差表现。\n意大利第一季度GDP年率初值录得-4.8%，为1995年以来最大程度萎缩。\n欧元区第一季度GDP年率初值录得-3.3%，创1995年有记录以来的最低水平。\n德国4月季调后失业人数达到创纪录的37.3万人，创历史新高。\n2、美元大跌的原因找到了\nForexlive首席货币分析师Adam Button指出，在这些市场大行情背后，并没有基本面新闻。日元交叉汇率的波动尤其大，目前正在飙升。英镑/日元在几分钟内上涨了150点。这可能与月底的资金流动有关。\n道明银行指出，月末的资金流动是美元今日下跌的主要原因。\n美联储没有提供太多的新消息，只是描述了他们对新冠肺炎的影响和看法。今天我们终于能感受到月底资金流。对我们来说，这仍然是美元本周三回撤的主要驱动力。\nFXStreet分析师Yohay Elam撰文称，除兑日元外，美元全线大幅下跌。这一大幅变动似乎与月底的汇率调整有关。欧元/美元汇率高于1.0950。早些时候，欧洲央行仅对其政策进行了微调，令投资者感到失望。欧洲央行没有采取行动令投资者失望，令意大利债券和欧元承压。现在看来，欧元的上涨似乎与此无关。\n美元此前上涨是因为股市下滑，且欧洲央行令一些投资者失望，他们原本预期欧洲央行会将债券购买规模扩大至垃圾债券。\n瑞银驻纽约外汇策略师Vassili Serebriakov表示，这是“风险减弱和对欧洲央行宣布不会扩大量化宽松的短期反应共同作用的结果。”\n欧元/美元短线拉升140点至1.0973，为至少自4月16日以来的最高水平，在欧洲央行会议后一度跌至1.0833。\n\n美元已从3月底创下的逾三年高点102.99大幅回落，因全球央行推出大规模刺激措施，以保护经济免受冠状病毒爆发的冲击。\n\n如果风险偏好持续改善，可能会进一步削弱美元。随着新增新冠病毒确诊病例数量的下降，投资者越来越乐观地认为，全球经济可能即将重新开放。\nOANDA高级市场分析师Craig Erlam指出：如果我们正看到风险有些许反弹，我想说，过去一周左右在这方面是相当令人振奋的，这表明这将削弱美元的一些升值压力。\n美联储周三将利率维持在接近于零的水平，并承诺在必要时扩大紧急救助计划，以帮助遭受重创的美国经济。\n周四，美联储还表示，它正在扩大其即将推出的“主体街贷款计划”的范围和资格，以覆盖更多寻求紧急融资的中小企业，以应对冠状病毒大流行造成的破坏。\n周四，日元伦敦银行间拆放款利率(LIBOR)与美元伦敦银行间拆放款利率的交叉货币基础互换为负值，为一个月来的首次，表明月末美元兑日元需求强劲。\n除了日元，市场对欧元的需求也值得关注。在伦敦时间周四下午4点左右（北京时间接近23:00），欧元/美元跃升至两周高点。随着需求飙升，伦敦汇市周四收盘前半小时，欧元期货合约成交近37亿美元，为3月6日以来最高。\n\n在成交量跳升之前，欧元/美元期权合约的执行价格为1.08欧元，价值近21亿欧元（23亿美元），而另外10亿欧元的类似期权合约则在前一天到期。在欧洲央行维持利率不变并表示准备采取一切必要措施支持欧元区经济之后，欧元汇率早些时候出现了下跌。\n3、今晚真的很恐怖？重磅数据恐暴击美元\n周五晚间，美国还将公布一系列重磅经济数据， 投资者可留意数据表现。\n21:45 美国4月Markit制造业PMI终值；22:00 美国3月营建支出月率；22:00 美国4月ISM制造业PMI。\n分析师指出，随着疫情持续恶化，美国制造业PMI将会进一步下行。若北京时间周五晚间美国ISM制造业数据较预期更加糟糕，美元可能会再度遭受沉重打击。\n\n市场预计，美国供应管理协会（ISM）4月份的采购经理人指数将从3月份的49.1降至36.9，远低于50的荣枯平衡线，原因是美国大部分经济仍处于关闭状态，并且几乎20％的劳动力失去了工作。相应的，就业指数预计将从3月份的43.8下滑至37。\n强制性关闭企业带来的灾难体现在每周失业申请人数上，最近六周，已有超过3000万人申领过失业金。\n\n海外知名外汇资讯网站FXStreet分析师Flavio 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