Will AMC's Bears Have No Way Home In 2022?_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

Will AMC's Bears Have No Way Home In 2022?

Seeking Alpha2021-12-21

Summary Spider-Man: No Way Home was a resounding success, painting a bright picture of the future of moviegoing. This quarter is set to be AMC's strongest pandemic-era earnings period. With bears ...

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Onlyme
·2021-12-21
Apesss where are u
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This long-established American pastime has proved to be resilient, defying last year's string of pandemic induced stay-at-home orders to go from strength to strength. Hence, even as news around the new COVID-19 variant spread, the latest Sony-Marvel blockbuster,Spider-Man: No Way Home, pulled in the third highest opening weekend ever. This was just behind pre-pandemic Avengers: Infinity Warwhich had a $257.7 million opening. Without mass Omicron fears in the preceding weeks, Spider-Man would have likely taken this position from Infinity War.\nWhat does this mean for moviegoing in the pandemic era? The continued to be repeated bearish argument that box office is going the way of the horse and buggy look set to be finally being put to rest. Over the weekend, AMC sold seven million tickets for Spider-Man: No Way Home, breaking its pandemic-era records for box office performance. For some context, during the entire first quarter of 2021, the company sold less than seven million tickets. Indeed, while bears would be right that this type of extreme seasonality does not bode well for healthy financials, it still stands that an undeniable reality has come about. As long as the blockbusters keep being created, cinemas will continue to sell tickets. The highly acclaimed Matrix Resurrections is also set for release in a few days, crowning what is expected to be AMC's strongest pandemic-era quarter. This will drive material revenue recognition and place the company on the path to generate positive operational cash flow. Hence, this quarter amounts to giving a shot of adrenaline to a tired runner.\nThe 2022 Movie Slate Is Strong\nAMC faces headwinds from its large long-term debt balance of $5.45 billion, only partially offset by cash and equivalents of $1.61 billion. This fundamentally restricts the operational flexibility of the underlying business as well as the ability of AMC to chase potential post-pandemic expansion opportunities. The aforementioned seasonality of revenue recognition also heightens the risk of their large debt balance as it increases sensitivity to large periods of zero to negative cash generation from operations.\nData by YCharts\nI think the broader macro picture for cinemas looks healthy as pent up demand for moviegoing throughout last year is released on the back of good movies that households actually want to see. 2022 is likely to see the same phenomena play out as movies likeJohn Wick 4,Thor: Love and Thunder,Avatar 2, and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,amongst others, are set to be released. These movies are set to build on momentum established by their previous releases.\nThis bodes well for a company that realized revenue of $763 million for its fiscal 2021 third quarter, a year-over-year growth of 538.7% and a $29.85 million beat on consensus estimates. Adjusted EBITDA was also negative at $5.9 million, albeit a material improvement from the year-ago loss of $334.5 million. This meant the company's free cash flow improved significantly to a loss of $138 million when compared to $385 million in the year-ago quarter. Critically, this $247 million improvement means the company is able to continue to reap expected consumer demand for the moviegoing experience.\nBears would be right to state that the current market capitalization of $14.8 billion is far too much of a premium to pay for the company. Especially as this stands at a significant multiple to its pre-pandemic averages. This beef with the self-proclaimed 'AMC Apes' will likely continue to play out over the next year, leaving capacity for large upward movement in the common shares as the apes look for their own peculiar victory.\nBears On The Backfoot Heading Into 2022\nFrom my purely anecdotal observation watching the latest Spider-Man movie, the audience was filled with a diverse number of people from different age groups. This bodes well for continued demand for moviegoing as it pulls in all subsets of the population. And while AMC does face a high degree of uncertainty, the outlook for moviegoing is not as black and white as suggested by some of the bearish narrative. The company's fourth quarter stands to be extremely hot as a number of strong box office showings aggregate to form record moviegoing demand.\nThis paints a more vivid picture of AMC's post-pandemic landscape, made cloudy by tales of doom and destruction peddled by bears. The core argument that moviegoing is set to go the way of Blockbuster is likely now dead. As long as good movies exist, there will be cinemas to show them. Does this make AMC a buy? No. The company's financials, although recovering, leave very little room for management error.\nThis article was written by Leo Imasuen.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":693449509,"gmtCreate":1640069869709,"gmtModify":1640069869944,"author":{"id":"3578395069533223","authorId":"3578395069533223","name":"Onlyme","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3578395069533223","authorIdStr":"3578395069533223"},"htmlText":"Apesss where are u","listText":"Apesss where are u","text":"Apesss where are u","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693449509","repostId":1114692779,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114692779","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640068847,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1114692779?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-21 14:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will AMC's Bears Have No Way Home In 2022?<blockquote>2022年AMC的空头会无路可归吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114692779","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nSpider-Man: No Way Home was a resounding success, painting a bright picture of the future o","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Spider-Man: No Way Home was a resounding success, painting a bright picture of the future of moviegoing.</li> <li>This quarter is set to be AMC's strongest pandemic-era earnings period.</li> <li>With bears still arguing that cinemas are dead, an undeniable reality has emerged.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9c913149be9f89018ec97f94369e31f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Amy Sussman/Getty Images Entertainment<blockquote><ul><li>《蜘蛛侠：英雄无归》获得了巨大的成功，为观影的未来描绘了一幅光明的画面。</li><li>本季度将是AMC在大流行时期盈利最强劲的时期。</li><li>在看空者仍在争论电影院已死的情况下，一个不可否认的现实已经出现。</li></ul>艾米·苏斯曼/盖蒂图片社娱乐</blockquote> AMC (AMC) has continued to find ways to defy its bears who continue to scream at the top of their lungs about the impending death of moviegoing. This long-established American pastime has proved to be resilient, defying last year's string of pandemic induced stay-at-home orders to go from strength to strength. Hence, even as news around the new COVID-19 variant spread, the latest Sony-Marvel blockbuster,Spider-Man: No Way Home, pulled in the&nbsp;third highest opening weekend ever. This was just behind pre-pandemic&nbsp;Avengers: Infinity Warwhich had a $257.7 million opening. Without mass Omicron fears in the preceding weeks, Spider-Man would have likely taken this position from Infinity War.<blockquote>AMC(AMC)一直在寻找方法来对抗那些继续声嘶力竭地尖叫着观影即将消亡的熊。事实证明，这种历史悠久的美国消遣方式具有弹性，无视去年疫情引发的一系列居家命令，不断壮大。因此，即使围绕新的COVID-19变种的消息传播开来，最新的索尼-漫威大片，蜘蛛侠：英雄无归，创下了有史以来第三高的首映周末。这仅落后于大流行前复仇者联盟3：无限战争首映票房为2.577亿美元。如果没有前几周对奥密克戎的大规模恐惧，蜘蛛侠很可能会在《无限战争》中占据这个位置。</blockquote> What does this mean for moviegoing in the pandemic era? The continued to be repeated bearish argument that box office is going the way of the horse and buggy look set to be finally being put to rest. Over the weekend, AMC sold seven million tickets for Spider-Man: No Way Home, breaking its pandemic-era records for box office performance. For some context, during the entire first quarter of 2021, the company sold less than seven million tickets. Indeed, while bears would be right that this type of extreme seasonality does not bode well for healthy financials, it still stands that an undeniable reality has come about. As long as the blockbusters keep being created, cinemas will continue to sell tickets. The highly acclaimed Matrix Resurrections is also set for release in a few days, crowning what is expected to be AMC's strongest pandemic-era quarter. This will drive material revenue recognition and place the company on the path to generate positive operational cash flow. Hence, this quarter amounts to giving a shot of adrenaline to a tired runner.<blockquote>这对疫情时代的观影意味着什么？不断重复的票房正在走下坡路的悲观论点看起来终于要被搁置了。周末，AMC售出了700万张《蜘蛛侠：英雄无归》门票，打破了大流行时期的票房纪录。在某种背景下，在整个2021年第一季度，该公司售出了不到700万张门票。事实上，尽管看空者认为这种极端季节性对健康的财务状况来说并不是好兆头，但不可否认的现实仍然已经到来。只要大片不断创作，电影院就会不断售票。备受好评的《黑客帝国复活》也将在几天后上映，预计将成为AMC大流行时代最强劲的季度。这将推动重大收入确认，并使公司走上产生正运营现金流的道路。因此，这个季度相当于给疲惫的跑步者注射了一针肾上腺素。</blockquote> The 2022 Movie Slate Is Strong<blockquote>2022年电影阵容强劲</blockquote> AMC faces headwinds from its large long-term debt balance of $5.45 billion, only partially offset by cash and equivalents of $1.61 billion. This fundamentally restricts the operational flexibility of the underlying business as well as the ability of AMC to chase potential post-pandemic expansion opportunities. The aforementioned seasonality of revenue recognition also heightens the risk of their large debt balance as it increases sensitivity to large periods of zero to negative cash generation from operations.<blockquote>AMC面临着54.5亿美元的巨额长期债务余额的阻力，仅被16.1亿美元的现金及等价物部分抵消。这从根本上限制了基础业务的运营灵活性以及AMC追逐潜在大流行后扩张机会的能力。上述收入确认的季节性也增加了其巨额债务余额的风险，因为它增加了对运营现金产生为零至负的长期敏感性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b730701841847a501a8075b37ec7946a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote> I think the broader macro picture for cinemas looks healthy as pent up demand for moviegoing throughout last year is released on the back of good movies that households actually want to see. 2022 is likely to see the same phenomena play out as movies likeJohn Wick 4,Thor: Love and Thunder,Avatar 2, and&nbsp;Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,amongst others, are set to be released. These movies are set to build on momentum established by their previous releases.<blockquote>我认为电影院更广泛的宏观前景看起来是健康的，因为去年全年被压抑的观影需求在家庭真正想看的好电影的支持下得到了释放。2022年可能会出现与电影相同的现象疾速追杀4,雷神：爱与雷霆,阿凡达2，和《黑豹2：瓦坎达万岁》,其中，将被释放。这些电影将建立在前几部电影的基础上。</blockquote> This bodes well for a company that realized revenue of&nbsp;$763 million&nbsp;for its fiscal 2021 third quarter, a year-over-year growth of 538.7% and a $29.85 million beat on consensus estimates. Adjusted EBITDA was also negative at $5.9 million, albeit a material improvement from the year-ago loss of $334.5 million. This meant the company's free cash flow improved significantly to a loss of $138 million when compared to $385 million in the year-ago quarter. Critically, this $247 million improvement means the company is able to continue to reap expected consumer demand for the moviegoing experience.<blockquote>对于一家2021财年第三季度实现营收7.63亿美元、同比增长538.7%、超出市场普遍预期2985万美元的公司来说，这是个好兆头。调整后EBITDA也为负590万美元，尽管较去年同期的亏损3.345亿美元有重大改善。这意味着该公司的自由现金流大幅改善，亏损1.38亿美元，而去年同期为3.85亿美元。至关重要的是，这2.47亿美元的改进意味着该公司能够继续满足消费者对观影体验的预期需求。</blockquote> Bears would be right to state that the current market capitalization of $14.8 billion is far too much of a premium to pay for the company. Especially as this stands at a significant multiple to its pre-pandemic averages. This beef with the self-proclaimed 'AMC Apes' will likely continue to play out over the next year, leaving capacity for large upward movement in the common shares as the apes look for their own peculiar victory.<blockquote>看空者正确地指出，目前148亿美元的市值对于该公司来说太高了。尤其是这是大流行前平均水平的显着倍数。这种与自称“AMC猿类”的争执可能会在明年继续上演，当猿类寻求自己独特的胜利时，普通股将有大幅上涨的能力。</blockquote> Bears On The Backfoot Heading Into 2022<blockquote>进入2022年，熊处于不利地位</blockquote> From my purely anecdotal observation watching the latest Spider-Man movie, the audience was filled with a diverse number of people from different age groups. This bodes well for continued demand for moviegoing as it pulls in all subsets of the population. And while AMC does face a high degree of uncertainty, the outlook for moviegoing is not as black and white as suggested by some of the bearish narrative. The company's fourth quarter stands to be extremely hot as a number of strong box office showings aggregate to form record moviegoing demand.<blockquote>从我观看最新蜘蛛侠电影的纯粹轶事观察来看，观众中充满了来自不同年龄组的不同数量的人。这预示着对电影的持续需求，因为它吸引了所有人群。尽管AMC确实面临着高度的不确定性，但观影前景并不像一些悲观说法所暗示的那样黑白分明。该公司的第四季度将会非常火爆，因为大量强劲的票房放映合计形成了创纪录的观影需求。</blockquote> This paints a more vivid picture of AMC's post-pandemic landscape, made cloudy by tales of doom and destruction peddled by bears. The core argument that moviegoing is set to go the way of Blockbuster is likely now dead. As long as good movies exist, there will be cinemas to show them. Does this make AMC a buy? No. The company's financials, although recovering, leave very little room for management error.<blockquote>这为AMC大流行后的前景描绘了一幅更生动的画面，熊兜售的厄运和破坏的故事使其变得阴云密布。观影将步百视达后尘的核心论点现在可能已经不复存在。只要好电影存在，就会有电影院放映。这是否意味着AMC值得买入？不会。该公司的财务状况虽然正在复苏，但管理失误的空间很小。</blockquote> This article was written by&nbsp;Leo Imasuen.<blockquote>本文由Leo Imasuen撰写。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will AMC's Bears Have No Way Home In 2022?<blockquote>2022年AMC的空头会无路可归吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill AMC's Bears Have No Way Home In 2022?<blockquote>2022年AMC的空头会无路可归吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-12-21 14:40\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Spider-Man: No Way Home was a resounding success, painting a bright picture of the future of moviegoing.</li> <li>This quarter is set to be AMC's strongest pandemic-era earnings period.</li> <li>With bears still arguing that cinemas are dead, an undeniable reality has emerged.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9c913149be9f89018ec97f94369e31f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Amy Sussman/Getty Images Entertainment<blockquote><ul><li>《蜘蛛侠：英雄无归》获得了巨大的成功，为观影的未来描绘了一幅光明的画面。</li><li>本季度将是AMC在大流行时期盈利最强劲的时期。</li><li>在看空者仍在争论电影院已死的情况下，一个不可否认的现实已经出现。</li></ul>艾米·苏斯曼/盖蒂图片社娱乐</blockquote> AMC (AMC) has continued to find ways to defy its bears who continue to scream at the top of their lungs about the impending death of moviegoing. This long-established American pastime has proved to be resilient, defying last year's string of pandemic induced stay-at-home orders to go from strength to strength. Hence, even as news around the new COVID-19 variant spread, the latest Sony-Marvel blockbuster,Spider-Man: No Way Home, pulled in the&nbsp;third highest opening weekend ever. This was just behind pre-pandemic&nbsp;Avengers: Infinity Warwhich had a $257.7 million opening. Without mass Omicron fears in the preceding weeks, Spider-Man would have likely taken this position from Infinity War.<blockquote>AMC(AMC)一直在寻找方法来对抗那些继续声嘶力竭地尖叫着观影即将消亡的熊。事实证明，这种历史悠久的美国消遣方式具有弹性，无视去年疫情引发的一系列居家命令，不断壮大。因此，即使围绕新的COVID-19变种的消息传播开来，最新的索尼-漫威大片，蜘蛛侠：英雄无归，创下了有史以来第三高的首映周末。这仅落后于大流行前复仇者联盟3：无限战争首映票房为2.577亿美元。如果没有前几周对奥密克戎的大规模恐惧，蜘蛛侠很可能会在《无限战争》中占据这个位置。</blockquote> What does this mean for moviegoing in the pandemic era? The continued to be repeated bearish argument that box office is going the way of the horse and buggy look set to be finally being put to rest. Over the weekend, AMC sold seven million tickets for Spider-Man: No Way Home, breaking its pandemic-era records for box office performance. For some context, during the entire first quarter of 2021, the company sold less than seven million tickets. Indeed, while bears would be right that this type of extreme seasonality does not bode well for healthy financials, it still stands that an undeniable reality has come about. As long as the blockbusters keep being created, cinemas will continue to sell tickets. The highly acclaimed Matrix Resurrections is also set for release in a few days, crowning what is expected to be AMC's strongest pandemic-era quarter. This will drive material revenue recognition and place the company on the path to generate positive operational cash flow. Hence, this quarter amounts to giving a shot of adrenaline to a tired runner.<blockquote>这对疫情时代的观影意味着什么？不断重复的票房正在走下坡路的悲观论点看起来终于要被搁置了。周末，AMC售出了700万张《蜘蛛侠：英雄无归》门票，打破了大流行时期的票房纪录。在某种背景下，在整个2021年第一季度，该公司售出了不到700万张门票。事实上，尽管看空者认为这种极端季节性对健康的财务状况来说并不是好兆头，但不可否认的现实仍然已经到来。只要大片不断创作，电影院就会不断售票。备受好评的《黑客帝国复活》也将在几天后上映，预计将成为AMC大流行时代最强劲的季度。这将推动重大收入确认，并使公司走上产生正运营现金流的道路。因此，这个季度相当于给疲惫的跑步者注射了一针肾上腺素。</blockquote> The 2022 Movie Slate Is Strong<blockquote>2022年电影阵容强劲</blockquote> AMC faces headwinds from its large long-term debt balance of $5.45 billion, only partially offset by cash and equivalents of $1.61 billion. This fundamentally restricts the operational flexibility of the underlying business as well as the ability of AMC to chase potential post-pandemic expansion opportunities. The aforementioned seasonality of revenue recognition also heightens the risk of their large debt balance as it increases sensitivity to large periods of zero to negative cash generation from operations.<blockquote>AMC面临着54.5亿美元的巨额长期债务余额的阻力，仅被16.1亿美元的现金及等价物部分抵消。这从根本上限制了基础业务的运营灵活性以及AMC追逐潜在大流行后扩张机会的能力。上述收入确认的季节性也增加了其巨额债务余额的风险，因为它增加了对运营现金产生为零至负的长期敏感性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b730701841847a501a8075b37ec7946a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote> I think the broader macro picture for cinemas looks healthy as pent up demand for moviegoing throughout last year is released on the back of good movies that households actually want to see. 2022 is likely to see the same phenomena play out as movies likeJohn Wick 4,Thor: Love and Thunder,Avatar 2, and&nbsp;Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,amongst others, are set to be released. These movies are set to build on momentum established by their previous releases.<blockquote>我认为电影院更广泛的宏观前景看起来是健康的，因为去年全年被压抑的观影需求在家庭真正想看的好电影的支持下得到了释放。2022年可能会出现与电影相同的现象疾速追杀4,雷神：爱与雷霆,阿凡达2，和《黑豹2：瓦坎达万岁》,其中，将被释放。这些电影将建立在前几部电影的基础上。</blockquote> This bodes well for a company that realized revenue of&nbsp;$763 million&nbsp;for its fiscal 2021 third quarter, a year-over-year growth of 538.7% and a $29.85 million beat on consensus estimates. Adjusted EBITDA was also negative at $5.9 million, albeit a material improvement from the year-ago loss of $334.5 million. This meant the company's free cash flow improved significantly to a loss of $138 million when compared to $385 million in the year-ago quarter. Critically, this $247 million improvement means the company is able to continue to reap expected consumer demand for the moviegoing experience.<blockquote>对于一家2021财年第三季度实现营收7.63亿美元、同比增长538.7%、超出市场普遍预期2985万美元的公司来说，这是个好兆头。调整后EBITDA也为负590万美元，尽管较去年同期的亏损3.345亿美元有重大改善。这意味着该公司的自由现金流大幅改善，亏损1.38亿美元，而去年同期为3.85亿美元。至关重要的是，这2.47亿美元的改进意味着该公司能够继续满足消费者对观影体验的预期需求。</blockquote> Bears would be right to state that the current market capitalization of $14.8 billion is far too much of a premium to pay for the company. Especially as this stands at a significant multiple to its pre-pandemic averages. This beef with the self-proclaimed 'AMC Apes' will likely continue to play out over the next year, leaving capacity for large upward movement in the common shares as the apes look for their own peculiar victory.<blockquote>看空者正确地指出，目前148亿美元的市值对于该公司来说太高了。尤其是这是大流行前平均水平的显着倍数。这种与自称“AMC猿类”的争执可能会在明年继续上演，当猿类寻求自己独特的胜利时，普通股将有大幅上涨的能力。</blockquote> Bears On The Backfoot Heading Into 2022<blockquote>进入2022年，熊处于不利地位</blockquote> From my purely anecdotal observation watching the latest Spider-Man movie, the audience was filled with a diverse number of people from different age groups. This bodes well for continued demand for moviegoing as it pulls in all subsets of the population. And while AMC does face a high degree of uncertainty, the outlook for moviegoing is not as black and white as suggested by some of the bearish narrative. The company's fourth quarter stands to be extremely hot as a number of strong box office showings aggregate to form record moviegoing demand.<blockquote>从我观看最新蜘蛛侠电影的纯粹轶事观察来看，观众中充满了来自不同年龄组的不同数量的人。这预示着对电影的持续需求，因为它吸引了所有人群。尽管AMC确实面临着高度的不确定性，但观影前景并不像一些悲观说法所暗示的那样黑白分明。该公司的第四季度将会非常火爆，因为大量强劲的票房放映合计形成了创纪录的观影需求。</blockquote> This paints a more vivid picture of AMC's post-pandemic landscape, made cloudy by tales of doom and destruction peddled by bears. The core argument that moviegoing is set to go the way of Blockbuster is likely now dead. As long as good movies exist, there will be cinemas to show them. Does this make AMC a buy? No. The company's financials, although recovering, leave very little room for management error.<blockquote>这为AMC大流行后的前景描绘了一幅更生动的画面，熊兜售的厄运和破坏的故事使其变得阴云密布。观影将步百视达后尘的核心论点现在可能已经不复存在。只要好电影存在，就会有电影院放映。这是否意味着AMC值得买入？不会。该公司的财务状况虽然正在复苏，但管理失误的空间很小。</blockquote> This article was written by&nbsp;Leo Imasuen.<blockquote>本文由Leo Imasuen撰写。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476118-amcs-bears-will-have-no-way-home-in-2022\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476118-amcs-bears-will-have-no-way-home-in-2022","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114692779","content_text":"Summary\n\nSpider-Man: No Way Home was a resounding success, painting a bright picture of the future of moviegoing.\nThis quarter is set to be AMC's strongest pandemic-era earnings period.\nWith bears still arguing that cinemas are dead, an undeniable reality has emerged.\n\nAmy Sussman/Getty Images Entertainment\nAMC (AMC) has continued to find ways to defy its bears who continue to scream at the top of their lungs about the impending death of moviegoing. This long-established American pastime has proved to be resilient, defying last year's string of pandemic induced stay-at-home orders to go from strength to strength. Hence, even as news around the new COVID-19 variant spread, the latest Sony-Marvel blockbuster,Spider-Man: No Way Home, pulled in the third highest opening weekend ever. This was just behind pre-pandemic Avengers: Infinity Warwhich had a $257.7 million opening. Without mass Omicron fears in the preceding weeks, Spider-Man would have likely taken this position from Infinity War.\nWhat does this mean for moviegoing in the pandemic era? The continued to be repeated bearish argument that box office is going the way of the horse and buggy look set to be finally being put to rest. Over the weekend, AMC sold seven million tickets for Spider-Man: No Way Home, breaking its pandemic-era records for box office performance. For some context, during the entire first quarter of 2021, the company sold less than seven million tickets. Indeed, while bears would be right that this type of extreme seasonality does not bode well for healthy financials, it still stands that an undeniable reality has come about. As long as the blockbusters keep being created, cinemas will continue to sell tickets. The highly acclaimed Matrix Resurrections is also set for release in a few days, crowning what is expected to be AMC's strongest pandemic-era quarter. This will drive material revenue recognition and place the company on the path to generate positive operational cash flow. Hence, this quarter amounts to giving a shot of adrenaline to a tired runner.\nThe 2022 Movie Slate Is Strong\nAMC faces headwinds from its large long-term debt balance of $5.45 billion, only partially offset by cash and equivalents of $1.61 billion. This fundamentally restricts the operational flexibility of the underlying business as well as the ability of AMC to chase potential post-pandemic expansion opportunities. The aforementioned seasonality of revenue recognition also heightens the risk of their large debt balance as it increases sensitivity to large periods of zero to negative cash generation from operations.\nData by YCharts\nI think the broader macro picture for cinemas looks healthy as pent up demand for moviegoing throughout last year is released on the back of good movies that households actually want to see. 2022 is likely to see the same phenomena play out as movies likeJohn Wick 4,Thor: Love and Thunder,Avatar 2, and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,amongst others, are set to be released. These movies are set to build on momentum established by their previous releases.\nThis bodes well for a company that realized revenue of $763 million for its fiscal 2021 third quarter, a year-over-year growth of 538.7% and a $29.85 million beat on consensus estimates. Adjusted EBITDA was also negative at $5.9 million, albeit a material improvement from the year-ago loss of $334.5 million. This meant the company's free cash flow improved significantly to a loss of $138 million when compared to $385 million in the year-ago quarter. Critically, this $247 million improvement means the company is able to continue to reap expected consumer demand for the moviegoing experience.\nBears would be right to state that the current market capitalization of $14.8 billion is far too much of a premium to pay for the company. Especially as this stands at a significant multiple to its pre-pandemic averages. This beef with the self-proclaimed 'AMC Apes' will likely continue to play out over the next year, leaving capacity for large upward movement in the common shares as the apes look for their own peculiar victory.\nBears On The Backfoot Heading Into 2022\nFrom my purely anecdotal observation watching the latest Spider-Man movie, the audience was filled with a diverse number of people from different age groups. This bodes well for continued demand for moviegoing as it pulls in all subsets of the population. And while AMC does face a high degree of uncertainty, the outlook for moviegoing is not as black and white as suggested by some of the bearish narrative. The company's fourth quarter stands to be extremely hot as a number of strong box office showings aggregate to form record moviegoing demand.\nThis paints a more vivid picture of AMC's post-pandemic landscape, made cloudy by tales of doom and destruction peddled by bears. The core argument that moviegoing is set to go the way of Blockbuster is likely now dead. As long as good movies exist, there will be cinemas to show them. Does this make AMC a buy? No. The company's financials, although recovering, leave very little room for management error.\nThis article was written by Leo Imasuen.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7064888,"gmtCreate":1640073937325,"gmtModify":1640073937325,"authorId":3581985274026406,"author":{"id":3581985274026406,"idStr":"3581985274026406","authorId":3581985274026406,"name":"Skai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77957397aed2feadade5874e503ea585","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":693449509,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"All over the world. Everywhere.","text":"All over the world. Everywhere.","html":"All over the world. Everywhere."}],"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":10,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}